Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-04-16 | Marlins v. Mets OVER 7.5 | Top | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Slugfest *10* Top Play OVER 7.5 runs in New York Mets vs Miami @ 4:10 ET - The Marlins are off of a 5-2 win over the Braves in a game played at Fort Bragg, NC Sunday night as part of the special festivities surrounding the July 4th weekend. Miami could have scored much more than the 5 runs they pushed across the plate in that game as the Marlins ended up stranding 10 baserunners in that game. Miami has averaged 5 runs per game in their last 9 games and the over is 8-1 in these games. The Marlins should have no trouble with the offerings of the Mets Matt Harvery as he is struggling right now. Though his last start was cut short by rain, it is not as if Harvey was enjoying success in that start anyway. The Mets right-hander walked 3 and gave up 4 hits in less than 4 innings of work in the rain-shortened outing. Prior to the start against the Nats, Harvey had given up at least 4 earned runs in 4 of his last 8 starts. He's given up 19 hits in the 15 and 2/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts. He won't be the only starter struggling this afternoon. Tom Koehler gets the start for the Marlins and he has given up 9 earned runs on 15 hits in his last 9 innings of work. Now he takes on a Mets team that exploded for 14 runs yesterday afternoon and will be stepping to the plate with plenty of confidence this afternoon. Each of Koehler's last three starts against the Mets have gone over the total. As a road dog of +125 to +150, the over is 5-1 in Marlins games this season. The Mets lineup is likely to stay red hot after their 4-game sweep of the Cubs that saw New York average 8 runs per game. Low total here and considering the overall mediocre recent results of these two starting pitchers, I am happy to take advantage of the low number here. *10* OVER in New York Mets |
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07-03-16 | Pirates v. A's OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB 1st Half TOTAL OF THE YEAR *10* OVER 8.5 in Oakland vs Pittsburgh @ 4:05 ET - Make no mistake, Daniel Mengden has pitched surprisingly well for Oakland since his call-up from the minors. However, he does not have overpowering stuff and I expect him to struggle against the red-hot Pirates this afternoon. With their 4-2 win yesterday, Pittsburgh is 6-2 in their last 8 games and has averaged 5.4 runs per game during this stretch. Oakland also has been swinging the bats well. Prior to being held to 2 runs yesterday, the Athletics had averaged 6.9 runs per game in their last 9 games. Oakland should certainly bounce back against the Pirates Francisco Liriano today. Not only has the Pirates southpaw been struggling, the A's rank 8th out of all 30 MLB teams for slugging percentage against left-handed pitching. This has played a big role in the over being 14-4 in Oakland's games against southpaw starters this season! Liriano is 1-4 with a 6.98 ERA in his 7 road starts this season. The Pirates lefty has been issuing too many walks and is having trouble with location of his pitches in the strike zone. This has played a key role in Liriano allowing at least 4 earned runs in 5 of his last 6 starts. The Pittsburgh southpaw has walked 29 in the 36 innings spanning his last 7 starts. The over is 21-10 this season in Pirates games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. Pittsburgh's interleague games are 10-4 to the over this season and day games have gone 17-9 to the over. The over is 37-23 in Pirates games against right-handed starters and the over is 19-6 in their games against teams with a losing record. The A's pound Liriano as they look to avoid the sweep but I also expect Mengden (0-3 in day games) to come back to reality after pitching "over his head" so far at the big league level. *10* OVER in Oakland |
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07-03-16 | White Sox +139 v. Astros | Top | 4-1 | Win | 139 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Revenge Rout *10* Top Play Chicago White Sox +135 @ Houston @ 2:10 ET - The Astros struggles against left-handed pitching this season continued yesterday. They did get a little more off of Chris Sale than expected but still the fact that Houston had only 6 hits while striking out 9 times in 7 innings tells you what you need to know. The Astros continue to labor against southpaws with the lowest batting average (.231) among AL teams when facing left-handed pitching. That is 14 points lower than any other American League team. This afternoon the Astros will face Jose Quintana who has a much lower ERA and much lower WHIP on the season than his counterpart, Houston's Collin McHugh, in this one. Quintana's team is 5-1 in his 6 career starts against the Astros but that lone loss occurred in the lefty's last visit to Houston even though Quintana gave up only 1 earned run 6 and 1/3 innings as he was outdueled by Dallas Keuchel. The ChiSox southpaw has a 2.78 ERA in his career starts against the Astros and allowed just 1 earned runs in both of his starts versus Houston last season. McHugh is winless in his two career starts against the White Sox. The Astros right-hander has been hit at a .301 clip in his home starts this season and Houston has been fortunate to go 6-2 in his 8 home starts this season as McHugh has struggled more often than not in those home outings. I look for the Astros to drop to 9-15 against left-handers this season with another loss today. The value is with the road dog in this one. *10* CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
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07-02-16 | Angels v. Red Sox OVER 10 | Top | 21-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Slugfest *10* Top Play OVER 10 in Boston vs Los Angeles Angels @ 7:15 ET - Yesterday's game between these clubs was unbelievable. The teams combined for 28 hits but yet scored only 9 runs. It was one of the worst beats on an over that I have seen in a long time. We should get redemption today by coming right back with the same selection as the pitching match-up is conducive to an over and both teams are swinging the bats well as evidenced yesterday. The Angels will have Hector Santiago and he has struggled in most of his starts since late April. The Los Angeles southpaw has had only 3 quality starts out of his 12 starts dating back to April 29th. The over is 9-2 in Santiago's last 11 starts and he has a 6.48 ERA in his last 12 starts. He gave up 6 earned runs versus Oakland last week and gave up 8 hits in 5 innings the last time he faced the Red Sox. Boston will have Clay Buchholz on the mound this evening and he gave up 6 earned runs in 6 innings the last time he faced the Angels. Also, like Santiago, he has struggled for much of this season. He allowed 4 earned runs in his most recent start and that was the 8th time in 12 starts this season that Buchholz has allowed 4 earned runs or more. Buchholz again had command issues with his pitches in his start last week versus the Rangers. The over is 8-2 in Red Sox Saturday games this season. When Boston is a home fave of -150 to -175 this season the over has hit 80% of the time. The Angels loss yesterday was their fourth straight and they are 24-12 to the over the past three seasons combined when they enter a game on a losing streak of 3 games or more. *10* OVER 10 in Boston |
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07-02-16 | White Sox +100 v. Astros | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Revenge Rout *10* Top Play Chicago White Sox Money Line -105 @ Houston @ 4:10 ET - The Astros have been red hot and they got the 5-0 win yesterday but they face their "kryptonite" this afternoon as they face a southpaw starter. Houston, among American League teams, has the worst batting average (.231) against left-handed starters this year. The Astros aren't just facing "any" lefty either as they take on Chris Sale today. The White Sox southpaw is "on top of his game" right now as he has gone 3-0 with a 2.45 ERA in his last 3 starts. He is also 6-1 with a 1.99 ERA in road starts this season. Sale is 4-1 with a 0.66 ERA in his 5 career starts against Houston and I fully expect the Astros to drop to 9-14 this season in their games against left-handed starters. Houston will have Doug Fister on the mound and he has given up 17 hits in his last 12 and 1/3 innings against the White Sox. By comparison, Sale has allowed just 13 hits in his last 25 innings against the Astros! The ChiSox lefty also has struck out 35 in those 25 innings! Simply phenomenal numbers. Look for the White Sox to bounce back from yesterday's shutout loss and improve to 14-3 in games started by Sale this season. The only 3 times that the White Sox have been shutout this season they've responded with a win every time. 3-0 with 20 runs scored in those 3 games when off of a shutout loss. Look for them to make it 4-0 today! *10* CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
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07-01-16 | Angels v. Red Sox OVER 10 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 10 in Boston vs LA Angels @ 7:10 ET - Both of these clubs were off on Thursday. The Red Sox are off of a shutout loss on Wednesday at Tampa Bay. That is only the 3rd time this season that Boston has been shutout. After each of the first two, the BoSox next game resulted in an over. I expect another one here. The Red Sox should pound Jhoulys Chacin. The Angels right-hander was somewhat rejuvenated after arriving to the Angels from the Braves earlier this season. However, Chacin has certainly quickly reverted to his old form and that has seen him get pounded. In his last three starts Chacin has a 10.03 ERA and a 2.49 WHIP. None of his last 5 starts have resulted in unders and the Angels righty has given up 21 earned runs in the 22 innings spanning these 5 outings. Chacin has given up 9 earned runs on 15 hits in his last 9 innings against the Red Sox. Boston will have Steven Wright on the mound this evening and the knuckleballer certainly has put up some strong numbers this season. However, he gave up 6 earned runs in 5 innings when he most recently faced the Angels and that was last July. Wright is coming off of a tough start at Texas where the Rangers got to him for 8 runs (3 earned) on 7 hits and a pair of walks in less than 5 innings of work. The Angels have gone over the total in 5 of their last 7 games and are averaging 10.6 hits per game in their last 8 games. The Red Sox were averaging 10.3 hits per game in their last 7 games before the ultra rare shutout at Tampa Bay Wednesday. The BoSox bounce back at home today and the Angels sticks stay hot and pound out double digits in hits yet again. The over is 11-5 the past three seasons when the Angels are off of a game where they allowed 10 runs or more. The over is 24-11 the last three seasons when the Angels enter a game on a losing streak of 3 games or more. The over is 35-23 in Boston's games against right-handed starting pitchers this season. The over is 26-15 in Red Sox games against teams with a losing record this season. *10* OVER 10 in Boston |
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07-01-16 | BC v. Hamilton -5.5 | Top | 28-3 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
Rickenbach CFL *10* Top Play Hamilton Tiger-Cats -5.5 vs BC @ 7 ET - The home team has won both games in this series each of the past two years and last year the games were decided by 27 points and 30 points! With the line move here from an opener of -7 to now just -5.5 on the Tiger-Cats, there is significant line value available as the home dominance should continue. Hamilton got a big upset win on the road last week at Toronto and will be ready to keep rolling in their home opener. The Tiger-Cats are 10-4 ATS the past two seasons as a home favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. British Columbia is off of a tight home win over Calgary in Week 1 but the Lions were down 17 to 6 late in the 3rd quarter. The late comeback win could leave BC a little "emotionally spent" for this one and Hamilton's offense is going to be tough to stop. Zach Collaros is out with a knee injury but QB Jeremiah Masoli was phenomenal last week filling in for him. Not only did Masoli have a huge day overall (as the Tiger-Cats put up 40 points) he completed 15 consecutive passes at one point in the second half. Those were completed to four different receivers and now Hamilton also gets back wide receiver Tiquan Underwood for this one. Too many weapons for BC to stop and the Lions only went 4-13 SU (and 6-11 ATS) the past two seasons when facing a team with a winning record. *10* HAMILTON |
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06-30-16 | Cubs v. Mets OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 7.5 runs in New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs @ 7:10 ET - A pair of solid hurlers with overall good numbers on the year is keeping this total lower than it would otherwise be given the following facts. The Cubs John Lackey has a 6.61 ERA in his last three start and the Mets Steven Matz also has a 6.61 ERA in his last three starts. Lackey has given up three homers in his last two starts and the wind is expected to be blowing out at Citi Field tonight. Though it is generally a pitcher-friendly venue, Citi Field will be a little friendlier than usual to the hitters tonight. Lackey particularly struggled at Miami in his most recent start and I look for him to again get hit hard here. The Mets Matz has allowed 22 hits in his last 3 starts spanning 16 and 1/3 innings. He also has given up a homer in each of his last two starts and did not record a single strikeout in his most recent outing. That is always an alarming stat as it shows that hitters aren't having any trouble seeing (and making contact with) his pitchers. The over is 4-2 in Matz's home starts this season and 2 of Lackey's last 3 road starts have gone over the total. The Cubs have not had a single under in any of their last 6 games. The Cubbies bats have been rejuvenated on this road trip as they averaged 9 runs per game at Cincy and have scored at least 5 runs in 5 of their last 6 games. In their 41 road games this season, the Cubs have had just 15 unders. In their 41 Thursday the games the past three seasons it has also been only 15 unders for the Cubs. Look for this one to easily get over the low total as the normally low-scoring Mets take advantage of catching Lackey at the right time while the Cubs also stay hot at the plate. *10* OVER in New York Mets |
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06-30-16 | Ottawa v. Montreal +1 | Top | 28-13 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
Rickenbach CFL *10* Top Play Montreal Alouettes +1 vs Ottawa @ 7 ET - The Alouettes home opener and they fired up about returning to winning ways after a tough season last year. Montreal certainly got their season off of on the right foot by knocking off Winnipeg last week. That 22-14 win over the Blue Bombers displayed some impressive defense for the Alouettes but what also impressed was that the offense moved the ball very well under their new offensive coordinator. A couple of turnovers when knocking on the doorstep of points resulted in Montreal's point total being lower than it should have been but that is helping to create line value for this week's Alouettes game. That's because Montreal truly looked strong on both sides of the ball last week and they now take on a Redblacks team that is off of a huge revenging win that came in overtime at Edmonton last week. As impressive as that win was last week, Ottawa was certainly helped by the fact that they faced an injury-depleted Eskimos secondary. The Redblacks will face a much tougher challenge against the Als secondary this week. Another thing going against Ottawa here is the short rest factor as this is a Thursday game and they just got that big revenge win on Saturday. The Redblacks have lost 40 of 53 road games long-term. Montreal has won 13 of 16 June games long-term. It will be loud in Montreal Thursday and the situation is perfect for the Alouettes to exact revenge for losing all 3 match-ups with Ottawa last season. Keep in mind that the Als had won all 3 match-ups the prior season. Payback time. *10* MONTREAL |
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06-29-16 | Rangers v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-9 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in New York Yankees vs Texas @ 7:05 ET - With their 7-1 win yesterday, the Rangers are now 13-3 in their last 16 games and have averaged 6 runs per game during this hot streak. The Yankees have cooled off a bit at the plate recently but are still averaging 10 hits per game in their last 10 games. Facing the Rangers Nick Martinez Wednesday should bring the Yanks bats right back to life after scoring just a single run yesterday. Martinez has struggled in both of his starts this month since moving into the rotation. He has more walks than strikeouts and also gave up 2 homers in his most recent start. Martinez has given up 8 earned runs in less than 13 innings of work spanning his last two starts against the Yankees. The Yanks got to him for 3 homers in those two outings. Masahiro Tanaka gets the start for the Yankees in this one. He allowed 4 earned runs on 9 hits and 3 walks (for a 2.00 WHIP) in the 6 innings he logged against the Rangers in his only career start against them. Tanaka comes into this home start having allowed 8 earned runs in the 12 and 1/3 innings spanning his last two home starts. In fact, Tanaka has a 5.74 ERA in his last 5 home starts so he's certainly been far from dominant at Yankee Stadium. The Rangers have recently had a lot of unders but that has had a lot to do with getting solid pitching. With Martinez on the mound tonight, that is unlikely to be the case and the Rangers sticks will remain hot as well. In other words, perfect ingredients for an over. The Yankees have had just 2 unders in their last 10 games. Prior to yesterday's defeat, the Yanks had averaged 5 runs per game in going 6-4 in their last 10 games. Look for the Yankees offense to get right back on track tonight. *10* OVER 8.5 in New York Yankees |
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06-29-16 | Astros v. Angels OVER 9 | Top | 10-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9 in Los Angeles Angels vs Houston @ 3:35 ET - With yesterday's 7-1 win, the Astros have now won 9 of their last 10 games and they've averaged 6.5 runs per game during this hot streak. I don't see Jered Weaver being able to slow down the Astros red hot sticks. The veteran right-hander was long-known for excelling in his home starts but, after another rough effort Friday, Weaver has given up 4 earned runs or more in 5 of his last 7 home starts. Not surprisingly, the over is 5-2 in Weaver's last 7 starts. Weaver has allowed 9 earned runs in the less than 12 innings of work spanning his last two starts against Houston. Weaver also has given up 4 homers in his last 3 starts against the Astros. He will be opposed by Dallas Keuchel this afternoon. The southpaw has certainly been the victim of some bad breaks in some of his starts this season but there is no denying he was way too "hittable" in his most recent start as the Royals got to him for 4 earned runs on 11 hits in his 6 innings of work. The left-hander allowed 2 homers in that start and also allowed 2 homers in his most recent outing against the Angels in late May. Keuchel dominated at home last season but was not so dominant on the road last year. This season, he's been far from dominant away from home as Keuchel has a 5.89 ERA in road games in 2016. The fact he only had 2 strike-outs at Kansas City in his most recent start is also cause for concern. The over is 17-8 (68%) the last 3 seasons in Astros road games where they are a fave of -125 to -150. The Houston hot hitting continues here but the Angels sticks will respond after producing just 2 runs yesterday and that means an afternoon slugfest can be expected here. *10* OVER 9 in Los Angeles Angels |
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06-28-16 | Blue Jays v. Rockies OVER 12 | Top | 14-9 | Win | 100 | 15 h 60 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 12 in Colorado vs Toronto @ 8:40 ET - As of early Tuesday morning it appears the wind will be switching around this evening. Even though when the first pitch is made in this game the wind may not be blowing out it is likely that it will end up blowing out for much of this game. That said, I see a lot of value with another over in the dry, thin air at Coors Field tonight. With last night's 9-5 win, the Rockies have now seen 7 straight games go over the total. There is no reason not to expect another one tonight. Colorado crushed the Blue Jays bullpen last night and let's not forget that the Rockies bullpen has been one of the worst in the league this season. That is bad news for Colorado tonight because their starter, Eddie Butler, is unlikely to pitch deep into this game. Butler has a 10.42 ERA and a 2.11 WHIP in his home starts this season. The Rockies righty also has a 10.20 ERA and a 2.27 WHIP in his last 3 starts overall. Facing a Blue Jays lineup that has averaged 6.5 runs per game in their last 12 games isn't going to help matters for Butler! The Rockies will be facing J.A Happ of the Blue Jays tonight. The southpaw faced Colorado twice in the last two months of last season so they have some familiarity with him even though this is an inter-league match-up. The red-hot Rockies have averaged 8 runs per game in going 5-3 in their last 8 games. The over is 3-1 in Butler's 4 home starts this season and the over is 7-1 in the Rockies 8 inter-league games this season. Look for yet another wild one at Coors Field tonight. *10* OVER 12 in Colorado |
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06-27-16 | Blue Jays v. Rockies OVER 12 | Top | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 12 in Colorado vs Toronto @ 8:40 ET - Yesterday's Blue Jays game (at the White Sox) stayed under the total but the Jays had previously gone over the total in 5 of their last 7 road games. The Rockies game (versus Arizona) went over the total yesterday and that made it 6 straight overs in Colorado games. Now the Rockies are back into interleague action again and the over is 6-1 in their interleague games this season. Colorado will have Jon Gray on the mound and he walked 5 in just 4 innings in his most recent start. Gray allowed 4 earned runs in that outing and was diagnosed with a tired arm that forced him to exit early. Even though he's back on track for this start Monday, I do expect him to continue to show signs of fatigue. The Blue Jays hurler tonight also has an injury concern here as Marco Estrada has been having some discomfort in his back. Since he pitched in the National League for much of his career he's faced the Rockies a few times. He has allowed 11 earned runs on 19 hits (including 3 homers) in the less than 11 innings of work spanning his last two outings. Estrada comes into this start as the first pitcher ever to make 11 straight starts of 6+ innings with allowing 5 hits or less in each of the outings. Of course trying to keep that going at Coors Field is about the toughest test a hurler could have and I look for him to struggle again here (just like he did in his most recent start against the Rockies back in 2014). Though all 7 of his home starts have stayed under the total this season, Estrada's road starts have had mixed results in terms of the total while Gray's 5 home starts have yielded just 1 under. Look for the over to go to 22-13 in Rockies home games this season as the warm (and thin air) of Denver continues to lead to crazy slugfest results. *10* OVER in Colorado |
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06-27-16 | Red Sox -108 v. Rays | Top | 7-13 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play Boston Red Sox Money Line -108 @ Tampa Bay @ 7:10 ET - Though the Red Sox have been struggling a bit, no one in the majors is struggling as badly as the Rays right now. With their loss yesterday, it is now 11 straight defeats for Tampa Bay. Perhaps even more alarming than just the losing is the fact that all 11 defeats have come by a multiple run margin and, in fact, the 0-11 run features an average margin of defeat of 4 runs per game. I am expecting another blowout loss here and that is why this selection is a top play! Boston will have southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez on the mound and, though he was not overpowering, the lefty pitched well enough in both his starts against the Rays last season for the Red Sox to win both games. Rodriguez seems to have turned the corner after some recent struggles. He allowed only 4 hits in 6 innings while striking out 7 in his most recent start. He'll be opposed by Rays right-hander Blake Snell in this one. The Tampa Bay righty has only allowed a total of 3 earned runs in his two starts since returning to the rotation earlier this month. However, Snell has been fortunate (to say the least!) as he's given up 15 hits and 6 walks in 10 innings for an ugly 2.10 WHIP in these two outings. The Rays are winless in his 3 starts this season while the Red Sox are a perfect 2-0 in the road starts of Rodriguez this season. Look for the BoSox to improve to 7-2 this season when on the road in a game with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs while the Rays drop to 9-25 this year in their games against teams with a winning record! *10* BOSTON |
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06-26-16 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies UNDER 12.5 | Top | 7-9 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play UNDER 12.5 in Colorado vs Arizona @ 4:10 ET - Yes ,it is hitter friendly Coors Field and yes these teams have been piling up runs in their meetings this season. However, both of the hurlers today are capable of shutting down the opposition. Colorado is hitting 28 points less against lefties than righties this season and they'll be facing southpaw Patrick Corbin whose team has gone 9-2 in his 11 career starts against the Rockies. The last time Corbin pitched at Coors Field he allowed just 2 earned runs in 6 and 1/3 innings on September 1st. As for Arizona, they are hitting 28 points less against righties than lefties and they'll be facing right-hander Chad Bettis who has allowed just 2 earned runs in each of his last two starts while striking out 13 and walking just 1. He's in top form right now with walks down and strikeouts up. He'll have plenty of confidence for this afternoon match-up with the Diamondbacks and the wind most likely will be blowing in from right field in this one. 3 of Corbin's last 4 starts have stayed under the total. Also, the under is 4-1 in Corbin's divisional starts this season. Only 51 of Arizona's 123 day games the past 2+ seasons have gone over the total. Only 3 of the Rockies 10 Sunday games so far this season have resulted in an over. Yesterday's Rockies win was their 35th this season. So far this season Colorado has won just 13 games the 34 times they are off of a win. With a big total to work with here and a pair of starting pitchers likely to work deep into the game and have success, I expect a rather easy totals winner on the short side of this one. *10* UNDER 12.5 in Colorado |
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06-25-16 | Astros v. Royals OVER 9 | Top | 13-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9 in Kansas City vs Houston @ 7:15 ET - Yesterday's game got crazy right away in the top of the first inning. Error, infield hit, walk, grand slam...it basically had it all. While a repeat of such a huge first inning is unlikely here it absolutely should be another easy over on a warm night in Kansas City with the wind expected to be blowing out to left field at Kauffman Stadium. Though the Royals Chris Young has pitched better of late he is well known for having issues with the long ball and, before allowing just 1 in each of his last 2 starts, Young allowed 4 homers in an outing at Cleveland. The Astros are a power-hitting team and, as you would expect, that is the type of club that gives Young problems. The veteran righty has allowed 7 homers in his last 3 starts against Houston. Also, in Young's last two starts against the Astros he has given up 13 earned runs on 17 hits in the less than 8 innings of work spanning those two outings. He'll be opposed by Michael Fiers tonight. The Astros right-hander is 0-2 with a 7.36 ERA in his two career starts against the Royals. Fiers has been solid at home for Houston this season but the Astros are 1-4 in his 5 road starts this season as he's been rocked for a 6.43 ERA away from home. 4 of those 5 Fiers road starts went over the total and the over is 6-2 in the Royals last 8 games after yesterday's easy over. When Houston is on the road and priced as a small fave of -100 to -125, the over is 8-3 this season. Look for the over to improve to 7-2 in the Royals last 9 games as KC also could get a boost with the return of Alex Gordon to the lineup today. Either way, yesterday's 25 hits is a sign of what should be expected throughout this weekend series. *10* OVER in Kansas City |
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06-25-16 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 6-11 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 11.5 in Colorado vs Arizona @ 4:10 ET - Both bullpens got crushed in yesterday's game and that could be a significant factor today as neither one of these starting pitchers has been an "innings-eater" this season. The Diamondbacks Miller has averaged 4.8 innings per start while the Rockies De La Rosa has averaged 4.3 innings per start. Miller is off of a rare solid start for Arizona but he faced a floundering Phillies team. Prior to that effort, Miller had given up 22 earned runs in his last 31 innings. Colorado's De La Rosa has been pitching better of late since he returned to the rotation but he allowed 3 homers in his last start and that's certainly a bad sign that he's reverting to his old form of leaving too many pitches in the wrong part of the zone. That is part of what has led to his ugly 8.57 ERA on the season. Also, though the wind is not expected to be a huge factor one way or the other today, there is a chance it will be switching around and blowing out during this game with warm afternoon conditions favoring an over as well. All 4 of De La Rosa's home starts have gone over the total this season and Arizona leads the majors in slugging percentage (.492) against left-handed pitching. The over is 20-11 in Dbacks games against teams with a losing record this season. With last night's game crushing it for 19 runs, the over is 12-6 in Rockies home games with a posted total of 11 or 11.5 runs this season. *10* OVER in Colorado |
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06-24-16 | Red Sox v. Rangers OVER 9.5 | Top | 8-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Texas vs Boston @ 8:05 ET - The Red Sox had recently hit a lull with some surprisingly low-scoring games but yesterday's 8-7 win marked the 2nd straight "wild one" with the White Sox as the teams combined for 29 runs and 50 hits in the last 2 games of the series. Look for the Boston bats to stay hot as they head to Texas now. Even though David Price is on the mound for the BoSox tonight, another wild one should be expected. The Rangers have pounded left-handed pitching this season. Their .289 batting average against southpaws ranks them 1st in the majors. Price is 3-8 with a 5.14 ERA in his career outings against the Rangers so Texas certainly hasn't been one of his favorite places to visit. He's allowed at least 4 earned runs in 2 of his last 3 meetings with the Rangers. Texas is going to have a pitching concern of their own tonight as Nick Martinez certainly wasn't sharp against the Cardinals Saturday. The Rangers right-hander was unable to complete 5 innings as he allowed 8 baserunners in 4 and 1/3 innings while striking out just 1. He was fortunate the damage wasn't worse than the 3 earned runs he allowed. Last season Martinez had a 5.79 ERA and a .303 batting average against after the all star break and his first start shows he's carried those struggles right into this season. Even in the minors this season he was getting hit at a .292 clip. The over is 16-7 in Boston's games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs this season. Included in that record is a 6-2 over mark when the Red Sox are on the road. The Rangers are 16-10 to the over this season in home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. *10* OVER in Texas |
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06-24-16 | Rays +127 v. Orioles | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays Money Line +127 @ Baltimore @ 7:05 ET - The Orioles have struggled against left-handed pitching this season. Baltimore is hitting .237 against southpaws and, taking a look at all American League teams, only the Astros (.233) have fared worse against lefties. That said, I look for the O's to struggle to connect against Matt Moore in this one. The Rays southpaw is in excellent current form with just 2 earned runs given up on only 8 hits while striking out 15 in the 13 innings of work spanning his last two starts. In Moore's last two starts against Baltimore he has held them to 3 earned runs on only 5 hits while striking out 18 in the 14 innings of work spanning those two outings. While Moore should dominate the Orioles here, look for Baltimore starter Yovanni Gallardo to continue to struggle. He has a 6.26 ERA in his 5 starts this season. When he last faced Tampa Bay (August) he allowed only 3 earned runs in 5 and 1/3 innings but gave up 11 hits! As you can see, Gallardo was hit hard but was fortunate to escape without much damage being done. Tonight, look for some big-time damage as his frustrating season (spent significant time on disabled list) continues. The Rays have been on a losing streak but yesterday's day off did them some good and, with a huge edge on the mound tonight, they'll get back on track with a W here. I'll grab the significant underdog line value here. *10* TAMPA BAY |
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06-23-16 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 10.5 | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 16 h 32 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 10.5 in Colorado vs Arizona @ 8:40 ET - The Rockies lost 9-8 in the Bronx yesterday but that marked the 9th time in their last 12 games that Colorado has scored at least 5 runs. The Diamondbacks are also off of a loss yesterday and were held to just 2 runs at Toronto but Arizona had previously won 5 straight games and averaged 5 runs per game during the hot streak. The Dbacks should certainly have no problems with the offerings of Colorado's Eddie Butler. The right-hander had made three appearances in June, including two starts. Butler has been rocked for 24 hits and he has also walked six in the 13 and 1/3 innings spanning these three games. In his 3 home starts this season (and the wind is likely to be blowing out tonight at hitter-friendly Coors Field), Butler has a 10.29 ERA and a 1.93 WHIP. He'll be opposed by Arizona's Zack Greinke tonight and that is what is helping to keep this total lower than it should be (given that it's Coors Field and should be hitter-friendly weather conditions). Greinke has impressive numbers this season and so certainly many may expect him to dominate here. However, Coors Field is a unique challenge for pitchers and Greinke is no exception. He allowed 5 earned runs on 10 hits in 6 innings while striking out just 2 in his most recent visit here. Also, Greinke has faced the Rockies twice (both in Arizona) this season and he has allowed 9 earned runs on 17 hits (including 3 homers) in 11 innings of work. The Rockies hitters will be stepping up to the plate with confidence in this one and Colorado is hitting nearly .300 at home while averaging 6 runs per game. The over is 6-0 in Rockies Thursday games this season. The over is 18-11 in Diamondbacks games against teams with a losing record so far this season. *10* OVER 10.5 in Colorado |
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06-23-16 | Cubs v. Marlins OVER 7.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 7.5 in Miami vs Chicago Cubs @ 7:10 ET - The Marlins Wei-Yin Chen got rocked for 6 earned runs in less than 3 innings of work in his most recent start. That outing was against the Rockies and it was NOT at hitter-friendly Coors Field either. Chen's prior two starts saw him allow 7 home runs in his two outings prior to the debacle versus Colorado. The Marlins southpaw is simply in awful current form right now. Even though the Cubs have been scuffling a bit at the plate lately this is still one of the most dangerous lineups in the league and facing a struggling southpaw is likely to bring out the best in them. What is helping to keep this total lower than it should be (opened up at a 7.5) is the fact that Jon Lester is on the mound for the Cubs. However, the left-hander is off of a very fortunate start in his most recent outing as he allowed 11 base-runners (but only 3 runs) in his start against the Pirates. He now faces a Miami team that crushed him for 6 earned runs in 5 innings when they faced him last season. The over is 5-1 in Lester's road starts this season. Also, the over is on a 5-1 streak in Chen's starts. When the Cubs are a road favorite in a price range of -150 to -175 this season, the over has gone 7-1 (88%). Additionally, the over is 5-2 this season (and 25-14 the last 3 seasons) in Cubs Thursday games. The over is 45-33 in Marlins games against left-handed starters the past three seasons. Additionally, the over is 24-16 in Thursday games during this 3-year stretch. The Marlins rested Stanton and Prado in yesterday's early afternoon game but I expected those key sticks to be back in the lineup this evening. *10* OVER in MiamiĀ |
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06-22-16 | White Sox v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 8-6 | Win | 107 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Boston vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:10 ET - Back to back 3-1 games to open up this 4-game series with a pair of easy unders. Look for the low-scoring trend to come to an abrupt end on Wednesday evening. The Red Sox are sending Eduardo Rodriguez to the mound and he is winless with an 8.59 ERA and a 1.84 WHIP in his last 3 starts. The struggling southpaw gave up 6 homers in those 3 starts even though he averaged under 5 innings per outing. While Boston will struggle to hold the ChiSox offense in check tonight, the Red Sox lineup should provide plenty of fireworks on their own. Yes, the BoSox have struggled the last few games at the plate but they are getting a second look at Jose Quintana after seeing him last month. The White Sox lefty has been an "under machine" this season but he has given up 4 homers in his last 4 starts. Also, in the month of June he has been hit at a .275 clip. On the season, right-handed hitters have hit Quintana 71 points higher than lefties and last season the margin of difference was 50 points. He will face plenty of right-handed lumber in the BoSox lineup tonight and I look for his recent struggles to resume. Before struggling the first two games of this series, Boston had reached double digits in hits in 6 of their last 9 games. The over is 15-7 this season in Red Sox games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs and also 23-14 this season in their games against teams with a losing record. The over is 4-1 in White Sox road games this season with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. *10* OVER 9.5 in Boston |
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06-22-16 | Mariners v. Tigers -115 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play Detroit Tigers -110 vs Seattle @ 7:10 ET - With their 4-2 win yesterday, Detroit sent the Mariners to their 8th loss in their last 10 games. Things are unlikely to improve for the M's today as they face a red hot Michael Fullmer. The right-hander has a 0.51 ERA in his last 3 starts and a 0.69 ERA in his 2 home starts this season. Fullmer has an advantage here in that the Mariners have never faced him. Conversely, the Tigers have seen plenty of Seattle's Hisashi Iwakuma and they have gotten to him for 5 earned runs in 2 of the last 3 meetings! The Tigers hit 6 homers against Iwakuma in those 2 outings where the Mariners right-hander allowed 5 earned runs each time. Iwakuma comes into this outing having allowed 4 homers in his last two starts. The Tigers are "only" 6-5 their last 11 games but they have averaged nearly 6 runs per game during this stretch and Fullmer shouldn't require a lot of run support as his phenomenal season continues. The Tigers are 8-2 in Fullmer's 10 starts this season. Look for Seattle's June Swoon (6-14 this month) to continue while the Tigers improve on a 16-6 (73%) record this season in home games with a money line between -100 and -150. This is a classic case of "hot versus not" and I like the line value here with the small home fave. *10* DETROIT |
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06-21-16 | Reds v. Rangers OVER 9.5 | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Texas vs Cincinnati @ 8:05 ET - The Rangers Colby Lewis is off of an incredible start where he had a perfect game into the 8th inning and a no-hitter into the 9th inning. Oftentimes when a pitcher like this (4.50 ERA and .289 BAA at home this season) is off of a phenomenal start, they quickly come crashing back down to reality. The fact is that Lewis is known for struggling at hitter-friendly Globe Life Park in Arlington. Last season he had a 5.07 ERA in his home starts. In 2014, Lewis went 3-9 with a 5.90 ERA and .315 BAA. Look for Lewis to again struggle tonight as he's back home off of a lengthy outing where he logged 109 pitches as he was going for the no-no. The over is 6-1 in the 7 home starts that Lewis has made this season. He'll be opposed by Anthony DeSclafani of the Reds. The Cincinnati right-hander struggled in what was just his 2nd start of the season. He's fortunate, to say the least, that he has a 2.08 ERA so far this season as he has a 2.31 WHIP in his 8 and 2/3 innings on the mound. DeSclafani has been hit a .389 clip in his limited action this season but the fact is he's been hit hard at the MLB level with a .282 BAA in his 226+ career innings. Even in the minors the young righty has struggled this year. At the AA and AAA level combined, DeSclafani gave up 11 earned runs in 17 innings of work. Amazingly, he allowed 6 homers in those 17 innings at the minor league level! The over is 3-1 this season when the Reds are off of a shutout loss and they lost 6-0 to Houston on Sunday. The over is 32-19 this season in Cincinnati's games against right-handed starters. As a home favorite in the -175 to -225 range the Rangers are on a long-term 115-76 run to the over. Look for the over to improve to 9-3 in Rangers Tuesday games this year with another wild one tonight. *10* OVER in Texas |
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06-21-16 | Rays v. Indians OVER 8 | Top | 0-6 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8 in Cleveland vs Tampa Bay @ 7:10 ET - There were 5 homers hit in yesterday's game and it finished with 11 runs in Cleveland's 7-4 win. Contrary to what many are likely expecting here, I am well known as a contrarian and I fully expect another rather high-scoring match-up tonight. A low total is being offered on today's game because of the long-term reputation of Corey Kluber of the Indians. This is a great value for over players today because Kluber is coming off of a rough start plus he has struggled often in his outings at home this season. Kluber got rocked at Kansas City in his start last week as he allowed 8 earned runs in only 5 innings of work. Now the Indians right-hander is back home where his last start was a successful one, also against the Royals. But prior to that strong outing at home, Kluber had given up at least 4 earned runs in 4 of his first 5 home starts this season. This is hardly "ace like" production and I look for Kluber to again struggle tonight as the Rays have gotten to him for 10 earned runs the last 3 times they've faced him. Tampa Bay will have pitching issues of their own tonight as the Rays hand the ball to Blake Snell for tonight's start. The young lefty didn't even make it out of the 4th inning in his start last week and yet it took him 92 pitches just to get to that point (1 out in the 4th inning when Snell exited). The 23 year old southpaw allowed 5 runs but was fortunate only 1 was earned as he gave up 8 hits in 3 and 1/3 innings. The over is 11-3 in Cleveland's home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs this season. The over is 20-9 in Tampa Bay's road games this season. Look for another game to reach double digits in runs tonight as Snell's struggles continue and Kluber has another rough outing which has been a problem for him all season long at home. *10* OVER 8 in Cleveland |