Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-02-23 | Ducks v. Flames OVER 6.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
NHL Sunday OVER 6.5 in Calgary Flames vs Anaheim Ducks @ 8:05 ET - The Ducks did register 34 shots on goal in last night's shutout at Edmonton so they did give a solid effort though held scoreless in the 6-0 loss. After that ugly defeat, the Ducks have allowed an average of 4 goals per game last 13 games. The Ducks, just like last night's game, would like to play the role of spoiler here so they will give a strong effort against a divisional foe playing for a playoff spot as is the case for Calgary. Anaheim's season has long been over but they can still get up for a game like this in which they have a shot to spoil the hopes of a divisional foe on their own ice. So this game is in Calgary and the Flames should score plenty but don't be surprised if the Ducks give a big effort and hang around in this one with some solid scoring of their own. Anaheim continues to give up piles of goals but Calgary actually has allowed 3.3 goals per game last 9 games. Look for a 4-3 or 5-3 type final here. The Flames have seen 6 of last 9 games total at least 7 goals and this one will too. OVER 6.5 in Calgary |
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04-02-23 | Phillies v. Rangers OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
MLB Sunday OVER 8.5 in Texas Rangers vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 7:08 ET - The first two games of this series have totaled 37 runs! The Rangers have been on fire at the plate. The projected match-up here is a pair of southpaws with Bailey Falter matched up with Martin Perez. Though the lefty dynamic could change things a little bit after the first games of this series featured all right-handers, I feel that the hot hitting will still continue. The Phillies bats should wake up here as they have some guys in their lineup that have enjoyed success against Perez plus they will go with a lineup heavy on right-handed lumber. Perez was very strong last season against lefties but not as dominant against righties. Also, it was a bit of a career year for Perez in terms of his performance and I am not convinced he will repeat such success this season. As for Falter, he throws strikes and pitches to contact and is not overpowering. That all sounds like it will lead to disaster against this Rangers lineup the way they are swinging the sticks right now. In other words, a lefty that can be crafty at times but is still rather young and unpolished and is not overpowering...this is not a recipe for success against a team that has scored 27 runs in the first two games of this series. We get value here with a low total as I like our chances that each team gets to 4 runs here. That would mean a game that must end 5-4 at least and that would lead to a winning ticket for us. OVER 8.5 in Texas |
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04-02-23 | Mavs v. Hawks -3 | Top | 130-132 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
NBA Sunday Atlanta Hawks -3 vs Dallas Mavericks @ 6:10 ET - The Hawks are at home off a loss and that is a situation that has seen them go 7-2 the last 9. Atlanta just lost by double digits at Brooklyn and the Hawks should be aggressive and focused in this one as a result. I like Atlanta to bounce back here at home as they host a Mavericks team that is really out of sorts right now. Dallas has now lost 6 of last 7 games and 15 of last 21 as they plummet in the standings. Making matters worse for the Mavs here is the fact that this is a B2B spot. Taking a look at the other side of this equation, the Hawks are still in a key must-win situation as they need to improve their position in the standings and make sure they get into the post-season and they will surely go strong here at home. Note that Dallas has been solid at home but actually is 10 games below .500 on the road with an ugly 15-25 record. I have no hesitation here with investing in the Hawks off an ugly road loss to bounce back big at home. ATLANTA -3 |
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04-02-23 | Senators v. Blue Jackets OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
NHL Sunday OVER 6.5 or 7 in Columbus Blue Jackets vs Ottawa Senators @ 6:07 ET - The Blue Jackets should score okay here since they are at home but also I expect the struggles of Columbus in the goals conceded department to absolutely continue in this one. The Blue Jackets are off a 7-0 loss to Florida yesterday and other than one aberration - a 2-1 loss to Boston - Columbus has allowed 5.5 goals per game since early March! Prior to yesterday's home shutout, the Blue Jackets had scored 3.5 goals per game in last 4 home games so I do expect them to respond here in that regard. Ottawa should respond here off shutout loss as well. The Senators just lost their most recent game 3-0 but this followed a stretch in which 14 of 18 games totaled at least 7 goals. More of the same on tap here. OVER 6.5 or 7 in Columbus |
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04-02-23 | CFR Cluj v. CS U Craiova OVER 2 | Top | 1-1 | Push | 0 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
Romania Liga 1 Sunday OVER 2 -120 in Universitatea Craiova vs CFR Cluj @ 2 ET - Both clubs off draws as Universitatea Craiova off a 1-1 final and CFR Cluj off a 2-2 final in their most recent matches. Odds are strong we will again see each one of these clubs both score and concede on Sunday. Universitatea Craiova was off a 2-1 win prior to that draw and they have scored at least 1 goal in 4 straight matches. CFR Cluj was tied with Farul for highest-scoring club in the league as they average 1.8 goals per match. The recent action for CFR Cluj continues to be very high scoring and I expect more of the same here. Each of the last 6 matches involving CFR Cluj have totaled at least 3 goals. In fact, those 6 matches have averaged 4.3 goals apiece and there is certainly nothing average about that. Love the fact that getting to just 2 goals gets us at least a push here but absolutely expecting 3 or more goals and a solid win. Keep in mind, CFR Cluj had only 3 draws in 30 league matches in the regular season. That is only a 10% draw rate and I see strong odds that each team scores at least once here and all of these factors considered you can see why I am then expecting at least a 2-1 final as a draw is unlikely. OVER 2 -120 in Universitatea Craiova |
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04-02-23 | Manchester United v. Newcastle United OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
EPL Sunday OVER 2.5 -110 in Newcastle United vs Manchester United @ 11:30 AM ET - Newcastle seeks revenge for a 2-0 loss to Manchester United in February's English Carabao Cup final. I do expect Newcastle United to score well against a Man U side that has allowed 2 goals per match on the road this season in league action! However, though Newcastle is averaging 1.5 goals per match this season in league action, so too is Man U. Also, Man U will take advantage of a Newcastle side that has allowed at least one goal in 8 straight matches across all competitions. I like the fact that Newcastle is back on track with B2B 2-1 victories but also allowed 2 goals in each of their 3 matches before these wins. Man U, since the calendar flipped the page to 2023, has played 22 matches across all competitions. 16 of the 22 matches have totaled at least 3 goals! Also, those 22 matches have averaged 3.2 goals apiece. Fully expecting at least a 2-1 final in this one. OVER 2.5 -110 in Newcastle United |
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04-02-23 | Southampton v. West Ham United -135 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 44 m | Show |
EPL Sunday West Ham United Money Line -135 vs Southampton @ 9 AM ET - This is a big battle at the bottom of the table as both clubs hungry for the full 3 points and an escape from the relegation zone where they are both entrenched right now. I like the home pitch edge here for West Ham as well as the fact they carry some momentum from their recent successes in UEFA Europa Conference League action. This is in stark contrast to a Southampton club that has struggled away from home. They have scored only 1 goal in their last 4 fixtures away from their home pitch and that goal was on a penalty kick. In their 14 road matches in EPL action this season, Southampton has totaled only 9 goals. The Hammers have nearly double in one less home match as they have 17 goals on their home pitch in 13 matches there in EPL action this season. The hosts get it done here and clamp down on the visitors whose road frustrations continue here. WEST HAM money line -135 |
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04-01-23 | Ducks v. Oilers OVER 7 | Top | 0-6 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
NHL Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 7 in Edmonton Oilers vs Anaheim Ducks @ 10:05 ET - Edmonton off a 2-0 win versus Los Angeles but this certainly is more likely to be an aberration. The Oilers, prior to that 2-0 victory, had seen 8 of last 9 games total at least 7 goals. In fact, those 8 games averaged 9 goals apiece. As for the Ducks, they have allowed an average of 4 goals per game last dozen games. The first two meetings between these teams this season each totaled at least 7 goals. Now this is the 3rd of 4 meetings and you know the Ducks would like to play the role of spoiler here so they will give a strong effort against a divisional foe playing for the top spot in the division. Anaheim's season has long been over but they can still get up for a game like this in which they have a shot to spoil the hopes of a divisional foe on their own ice. So this game is in Edmonton and the Oilers should score plenty but don't be surprised if the Ducks give a big effort and hang around in this one with some solid scoring of their own. OVER 7 in Edmonton |
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04-01-23 | Miami-FL +5.5 v. Connecticut | Top | 59-72 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
NCAA Saturday Top Play Miami Hurricanes +5.5 vs Connecticut Huskies @ 8:49 ET - The Huskies have been on a tear. Of course the Hurricanes have too or they would not be here. However, what I mean by a tear is that UConn has not just been winning, they have been dominating teams. That has led to very solid line value here as Connecticut is now overvalued. It is only natural that the Huskies would end up over-priced here after all their big wins. The Huskies have won their 4 games by an average of 22.5 points. Now they face a Hurricanes team that has not only won 29 of 36 games this season, the last 4 regular season defeats they had all came by a margin of 3 or less points and and average margin of defeat of only 2 points. We get great value here and I will not pass this up. The Canes are hot enough and scoring well enough that no team's defense is going to stop them in their tracks right now. They are so well-coached and have a never say die attitude they have displayed so many times that I just can not see them coming up short here. If they do, look for it to be by the slimmest of margins. The Hurricanes have scored 82 ppg during their current 13-2 run. Now think of how blistering hot the Huskies have been but realize they have averaged 79 ppg last 12 games. All you hear anyone talking about is UConn but you can see why the data and the value both are in support of a very strong play here on a Canes team that is flying under the radar in my opinion. Top Play MIAMI +5.5 |
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04-01-23 | Panthers v. Blue Jackets OVER 6.5 | Top | 7-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
NHL Saturday OVER 6.5 in Columbus Blue Jackets vs Florida Panthers @ 7:05 ET - Columbus off a VERY RARE low-scoring game as they lost 2-1 at Boston. Note that this followed a stretch in which 10 of 11 Columbus games had totaled 7 or more goals. In fact, those 11 games averaged 9 goals per game and there is nothing average about that! Florida has had 9 of 11 games total at least 7 goals. Those 11 games averaged 8 goals per game. You can see why I am expecting at least 7 in this one. OVER 6.5 in Columbus |
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04-01-23 | Florida Atlantic v. San Diego State -2.5 | Top | 71-72 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
NCAA Saturday San Diego State Aztecs -2.5 vs Florida Atlantic Owls @ 6:09 ET - The Aztecs have twice as many losses as the Owls. However, San Diego State is favored for a reason here. The defense of the Aztecs is the difference here. They have won 8 straight games and allowed only 56 points per game during this stretch. The Owls have won 11 straight games and allowed 65 ppg in their last 9 wins. As you can see, 65 ppg allowed is solid but is not 56 either! Hats off to FAU on a fantastic season but they are the lowest seed team left in the tourney and this is a bargain price on a tough Mountain West team that faces a much tougher regular season schedule than this Conference USA foe. SAN DIEGO STATE -2.5 |
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04-01-23 | Phillies -122 v. Rangers | Top | 3-16 | Loss | -122 | 8 h 55 m | Show |
MLB Saturday Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -120 @ Texas Rangers @ 4:05 ET - The Rangers had an insane 9-run bottom of the 4th versus the Phillies in Thursday's season opener. Texas was outscored 7-2 by the Phillies except for that 9-run 4th. Now that is not say the Rangers were not deserving of the win or that the complexion of the game did not change after that. But the point is that Philadelphia was not so bad except for one disaster half-inning. Look for the Phillies to respond in a big way here. Wheeler is their top pitcher and has a low BAA in recent seasons. Eovaldi coming off a solid season but look at his BAA numbers and they do not compare to Wheeler's. I expect Eovaldi to get lit up by the Phillies lineup that is still strong, even without Hoskins and Harper! As for Wheeler, he is certainly capable of dominating this start. The Phillies blew a 5-0 lead in that 11-7 loss Thursday. They were strong last season when coming off big losses. I look for that trend to continue here. Wheeler had a 1.50 ERA in his 2 starts against Texas last season. The Phils should bounce back big here and they offer solid money line value here at a low price with their ace on the mound. PHILADELPHIA -120 |
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04-01-23 | Farul Constanta 1920 v. Rapid Bucuresti OVER 2.25 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -50 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
Rotation #206813 Romania Liga 1 Saturday OVER 2 goals -135 in Rapid Bucuresti vs Farul Constanta @ 2:45 ET - Each of last 3 meetings between these clubs have totaled at least 2 goals and the most recent one totaled 3 goals in a 2-1 Farul win at Constanta. Now, in a play-off match-up, I look for another high-scoring match and will take advantage of this over available at 2 goals for a -135 price which is very reasonable to have the added value of an over 2. Note that 18 of last 21 Rapid matches have totaled at least 2 goals. Those 18 matches averaged 3 goals apiece. As for Farul, they are one of the highest scoring clubs in the league. Farul has seen 23 of last 26 matches total at least 2 goals. Those 26 matches have averaged 3 goals apeice. OVER 2 goals -135 in Rapid |
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04-01-23 | Aston Villa v. Chelsea OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
English Premier League Saturday OVER 2.5 +100 in Chelsea vs Aston Villa @ 12:30 ET - Chelsea had hit rock bottom not too long ago with a 2-0 loss to Tottenham. However, they have since turned things around in a big way with 3 wins and a draw in their last 4 matches. Chelsea has averaged scoring 2 goals in their last 4 matches. Aston Villa's last 7 matches have averaged 3.4 goals per match. I know Chelsea has some injury issues here but they are battling hard and will be ready to get rolling again at home. They had a disappointing draw before the international break so I look for them to be a little more ruthless here and they are favored for a reason. However, can't see them completely shutting down an Aston Villa squad that has scored in 17 straight matches and average 1.7 goals scored in this 11 matches. Great value with this total. OVER 2.5 goals +100 in Chelsea |
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04-01-23 | Brentford v. Brighton & Hove Albion OVER 2.5 | Top | 3-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
English Premier League Saturday OVER 2.5 goals -130 in Brighton & Hove vs Brentford @ 10 AM ET - Brighton & Hove have scored an average of 3 goals per match last 4 matches. Brentford is known for being a scrappy bunch and should be tough to beat here. The Bees have only one loss last nine matches and Brentford, other than that one loss, has scored an average of 2 goals last 6 matches. So two clubs rolling with confidence but Brighton at home and with an attack-minded manger. That said, this one likely to be a high-scoring battle and I like the value of this total at 2.5 goals. OVER 2.5 goals -130 in Brighton |
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03-31-23 | Rockies v. Padres OVER 8 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
MLB Friday OVER 8 in San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies @ 9:40 ET - The Rockies pounded out 17 hits yesterday. Couple that with the fact the Padres are in bounce back mode and facing a Rockies pitcher that had a rough spring training and that they have hit hard in recent seasons, I look for plenty of runs here. Freeland has been absolutely rocked by the Padres each of the last two seasons and their newest addition, Bogaerts, pounded out 3 hits in yesterday's loss. The rest of the team will help him today and we'll see plenty of runs. Even though I respect Martinez, I still feel strongly that the Padres right-hander will get hit hard by the Rockies as they bring momentum from yesterday's game. Martinez gave up 22 hits in 16 innings in last season's meetings with the Rockies. Freeland faces a Padres lineup made stronger with the addition of Bogaerts and his past struggles versus San Diego bodes well for a Padres bounce back here. So both teams score well as I also like the fact 4 of Colorado's runs yesterday were against the relievers. OVER 8 in San Diego |
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03-31-23 | Raptors v. 76ers -5.5 | Top | 110-117 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
NBA Friday Philadelphia 76ers -5.5 vs Toronto Raptors @ 7:10 ET - Raptors are motivated to win and that is keeping this line low. The key is that the Sixers have not locked in their playoff position just yet either so they will continue to be motivated for seeding purposes. Then you must factor that Philly is at home. Note that the Raptors have been awful on the road. Not only 12-24 on the season away from home, Toronto has lost 6 of last 7 away from home! The only win came in overtime and the 6 losses featured 5 by at least a 7 point margin. The average margin of the 6 defeats was 11 points and that sounds about right here. The 76ers are getting healthier again and are at home here and they have won 26 of last 33 home games. Their last 9 home wins have come by an average margin of 10 points and this should be another solid home win here as they take advantage of the Raptors road struggles. PHILADELPHIA -5.5 |
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03-31-23 | Rangers v. Sabres OVER 6.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
NHL Friday 10* Top Play OVER 6.5 in Buffalo Sabres vs New York Rangers @ 7:05 ET - The Sabres are starting a goalie making his NHL debut and he is jumping all the way up from Northeastern University for this start. Devon Levi will be facing a Rangers team that is off a 2-1 loss last night and will be fired up to bounce back. New York had won 7 of 8 games before that loss and scored an average of 5 goals per game in those 8 games. Buffalo has seen 17 of last 23 games total at least 7 goals and I expect more of the same here. Jaroslav Halak has been solid for the Rangers overall but has allowed at least 3 goals in 3 of last 4 games. Of course New York is favored for a reason here. Given all of the above, you can see why I am expecting at least a 4-3 final here. The Sabres have scored at least 3 goals in 8 of last 11 games and will take advantage of facing Rangers in a B2B spot but, as per usual, Buffalo will struggle to stop the opposition. The result is a high-scoring game here. 10* OVER 6.5 in Buffalo |
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03-31-23 | VfL Bochum v. Eintracht Frankfurt -1 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -114 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
German Bundesliga Friday Goal Line Frankfurt -1 -115 vs Vfl Bochum @ 2:30 ET - Frankfurt needed the international break to hit the reset button while it could have taken some of the momentum away from Vfl Bochum. A big key here is the home road dichotomy as Eintracht Frankfurt has outscored opponents 27-13 at home and has 7 victories on their home pitch this season. Vfl Bochum is off just their second road victory of the season and has been outscored 35-9 away from home. No team has more road losses than Vfl Bochum with 11 on this season. That said, the money line is too pricey for my liking but we'll grab the value on the goal line here and I fully expect a solid win for the hosts in this one. FRANKFURT -1 -115 |
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03-31-23 | Petrolul 52 v. U Craiova 1948 OVER 2.25 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 55 m | Show |
Rotation #206801 - Romania Liga 1 Friday OVER 2 -130 in U Craiova 1948 vs Petrolul Ploiesti @ 2 ET - Good value with this total available at over 2 goals. These are the top two clubs in the play-out this season in Liga 1 action in Romania. Both won their matches last week and both delivered clean sheets. Though neither club surrendered a goal last week and their most recent meeting this season ended 1-1, I like the fact that Petrolul Ploiesti had allowed 2.4 goals per match in their last 10 matches prior to B2B wins via shutout fashion! Also, U Craiova 1948 has scored an average of 1.7 goals per match last 9 matches. They are hosting here and will be tough at home but Petrolul Ploiesti continues to fight hard in the play-out! Also, the hosts have allowed about a goal per match this season and, prior to this most recent win, were off a loss in which they allowed 4 goals! OVER 2 -130 in U Craiova 1948 |
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03-30-23 | Golden Knights v. Sharks OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
NHL Thursday OVER 6.5 in San Jose Sharks vs Vegas Golden Knights @ 10:35 ET - Vegas is expected to start Brossoit is goal for this one. He is off a respectable outing but has not been used a whole lot in the Vegas platoon system. That said, a Sharks team that is at home and facing a division rival will bring their A game here and should give Vegas some trouble. Speaking of trouble however, San Jose had been a defensive and goaltending disaster prior to a shocking 3-0 win in their most recent game. Prior to that, the Sharks had allowed nearly 5 goals per game in a horrible 1-14 stretch. San Jose now faces a Vegas team that will be angry off a loss. Prior to the 7-4 defeat, the Golden Knights had won 11 of 13 games. The Golden Knights have allowed nearly 4 goals per game their last 8 games. Vegas has scored 4 goals per game last 10 games. Look for a highly entertaining affair as the Sharks will be charged up for this one and it should get to at least the 7 goal mark. OVER 6.5 in San Jose |
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03-30-23 | UAB v. North Texas +2 | Top | 61-68 | Win | 100 | 15 h 32 m | Show |
NIT Thursday North Texas Mean Green +2 vs UAB Blazers @ 9:30 ET - Mean Green 30-7 this season and have allowed 55 points or less in regulation time 8 of last 9 games. The Blazers beat North Texas in the C-USA Tourney after UNT took both regular season meetings. That said, the perfect revenge for the Mean Green would be getting the NIT Championship win over UAB. The Blazers also playing solid defense and are known for that but they have allowed an average of 67 points in regulation time of their last 8 games. As mentioned in my write-up for the match-up with Wisconsin in the semi-finals, this North Texas team is loaded with confidence and the set-up here is perfect for revenge with confidence never higher after the way the Mean Green closed out the win over the Badgers with dominant 2nd half play. UAB is a solid team for sure, of course, but look for the Mean Green to ride their stifling defense on the way to winning the NIT Championship Game Thursday as Blazers also had a little extra taken out of them with their win over Utah Valley State requiring OT Tuesday. Keep that in mind too...the Mean Green had to beat a solid Big Ten team to get here while UAB faced Utah Valley State. NORTH TEXAS +2 |
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03-30-23 | Blue Jackets v. Bruins OVER 6.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -116 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
NHL Thursday OVER 6.5 in Boston Bruins vs Columbus Blue Jackets @ 7:05 ET - The Bruins are off a rare home loss so they will be relentless here. Boston had scored an average of 4 goals per game in winning 7 straight games prior to that loss. Facing the Blue Jackets will help Boston get right back into the win column but Columbus has averaged 3.3 goals scored per game last 15 games so they can enjoy some success in that regard. The problems for the Jackets is they struggle to stop anyone and, in this case, they now try to stop the best team in the league coming off a home loss. The Bruins will punish this Blue Jackets team that has allowed 5 goals per game last 13 games. A 5-3 final sounds about right here but all we need is 7 goals and I certainly expect to get that tonight. OVER 6.5 in Boston |
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03-30-23 | Phillies v. Rangers OVER 6.5 | Top | 7-11 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
MLB Thursday OVER 6.5 in Texas Rangers vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 4:05 ET - We get a low total of 6.5 here because Aaron Nola and Jacob deGrom are both highly respected pitchers and deservedly so. However, Nola got rocked in his final spring training start and contract extension discussions stalling out could be effecting his psyche. As for deGrom, he has been dealing with an issue in his left side and will be on a pitch count here. The Rangers lineup looks much improved. The Phillies lineup, even without Bryce Harper and Rhys Hoskins, looks ultra dangerous especially with the addition of Trea Turner. Both teams have some hitters coming in hot from spring training success. Last but certainly not least the wind is expected to be blowing out at a pretty good clip for this one. We get line value because of the big name pitchers involved but I feel all of the above variables including the weather should help lead the way to a game that gets to 7 runs at least. OVER 6.5 IN Texas |
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03-29-23 | Mavs v. 76ers -4 | Top | 108-116 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
NBA Wednesday Philadelphia 76ers -4 vs Dallas Mavericks @ 7:40 ET - The 76ers have lost 3 straight games for just the 3rd time this season. They have NEVER lost 4 straight games this season. Also, Harden has been out for a few games but I would not be surprised to see him back tonight. Additionally, Embiid missed the game against Denver Monday but now with extra rest and the fact he is in the MVP race, I feel certain he will be back for this game. Either way, I do like the Sixers here at home as Dallas has been struggling quite a bit of late. The Mavericks are off win but this followed a 5-13 stretch for Dallas as the losses keep piling up including 7 of 9 games being defeats prior to the win at Indiana. The Mavericks beat the 76ers the last time these teams met in Dallas and that was in early March so the Sixers surely have not forgotten this and will be out for revenge here. Irving and Doncic each had 40+ points in that game and the Mavs still barely won the game. Of course that says a lot and I like the odds that Philly again responds and avoids what would be a 4th straight loss for the first time this season. PHILADELPHIA -4 |
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03-29-23 | Panthers v. Maple Leafs OVER 7 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
NHL Wednesday OVER 7 in Toronto Maple Leafs vs Florida Panthers @ 7:37 ET - The Maple Leafs are off a 3-2 win at Nashville but this followed 8 of 9 Toronto games totaling at least 7 goals. Those 8 games averaged 8.3 goals apiece. More of the same on tap here as the last time the Leafs met Florida the game was a 6-2 Toronto win last week. The Panthers enter this game with 8 of last 9 totaling at least 7 goals. These 9 games have averaged 8.2 goals apiece. That is why, even though of course I wish we had a total of 6.5 here, even at a 7 is still good value and I am expecting 8 or more goals per the above. OVER 7 in Toronto |
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03-29-23 | Islanders v. Capitals OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -117 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
NHL Wednesday OVER 5.5 in Washington Capitals vs New York Islanders @ 7:35 ET - The Islanders 7 of last 9 games have totaled at least 6 goals. We have great value with this total, in my opinion, at just 5.5 goals. The Isles have been quite hot and have won 4 of 6 games and scored an average of 4.3 goals per game in those 6 games. The Capitals have had 13 of 15 games total at least 6 goals and each of last 7 games total at least 7 goals! Washington has allowed at least 4 goals in 6 of last 7 games. I realize this is a divisional game and both teams still battling hard because of playoff implications - Isles trying to secure, Caps hoping for a miracle - but the fact is that both teams are trending strongly to the over and we also have value with this low total posted here. OVER 5.5 in Washington |
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03-29-23 | Sheffield Wednesday v. Cheltenham Town OVER 2.25 | Top | 2-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
English League One Wednesday OVER 2.5 goals +120 in Cheltenham Town vs Sheffield Wednesday @ 2:45 ET - Cheltenham Town will put up a fight at home and should score at least 1 goal on their home pitch here but Sheffield Wednesday is favored by a solid margin for good reason. The visitors enter this match angry off B2B losses and they have outscored Cheltenham Town 9-3 in the last 3 meetings and all of those matches have been in the past 18 months so it is not like it is ancient history. The visitors will score well and each of the last 3 meetings between these clubs have totaled at least 3 goals and averaged 4 goals. Sheffield Wednesday is one of the highest scoring clubs in the league and currently #2 in the table. Cheltenham Town, however, is off B2B wins in which they scored 3 goals in each victory. The hosts are playing with confidence and are not safe yet from relegation so they keep pushing for points in the table. However, the visitors off B2B losses know they must win too after B2B losses and I see each team scoring and neither team settling for a 1-1 draw either. Neither team has a high draw and considering the situation here, there will also be an extra push for goals in this one. OVER 2.5 goals +120 in Cheltenham Town |
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03-28-23 | Utah Valley v. UAB OVER 151 | Top | 86-88 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
NIT Tuesday Top Play OVER 151 in UAB Blazers vs Utah Valley Wolverines @ 9:30 ET - The Wolverines have allowed 69 points or less in 7 of last 8 games. So how can this total be set so high? Exactly! One of the keys is that Utah Valley has averaged scoring 84 ppg last 7 games. But another key is their most recent game. The Wolverines allowed only 68 points but Cincinnati actually had 79 shots from the field! The only reason the Bearcats did got into the 80s or even 90s in points is because they shot 34% overall and 24% from beyond the arc! Similarly, the Blazers are off a game in which they allowed only 59 points but Vanderbilt had 75 shots from the field! The problem for Vandy was they made only 33% from the field and just 26% from 3-point land. Also, the Commodores scored only ONE point from the free throw line the entire game. NONE of these stats are likely to be repeated here and I expect an absolute shootout here with plenty of back and forth quick buckets. UAB averaging 81 ppg this season and Utah Valley 77 and I am expecting, for the reasons note above, this one gets well into the 150s after both defenses were fortunate in terms of points allowed in their most recent game and both these teams very confident in the offensive end and full of scorers! Top Play OVER 151 in UAB |
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03-28-23 | Canucks v. Blues OVER 6.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
NHL Tuesday OVER 6.5 in St Louis Blues vs Vancouver Canucks @ 8:05 ET - The Canucks are hot but it will prove to be too little too late and that reality is starting to sink in. Both these teams are still mathematically alive yet, for all intents and purposes, realize their post-season hopes have slipped away. That helps this one to play out rather loosely in terms of defense and netminding. The Blues have been struggling to stop anyone. The Canucks have been getting better goaltending but the way St Louis has been scoring and the fact the Blues are at home means we should expect goals here. Vancouver has lower goals allowed of late but look at the teams they faced and those teams recent goal-scoring and their style of play. This one plays out much differently. The Canucks have won 10 of 12 games and scored an average of 3.5 goals during this stretch. The Blues have seen 10 of last 14 games total at least 7 goals and have allowed an average of nearly 4 goals during this stretch. St Louis also has scored an average of 4.3 goals per game last 10 games. This one has all the right ingredients for each club to get to 3 goals which means we would see at least a 4-3 final. OVER 6.5 in St Louis |
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03-28-23 | Cavs v. Hawks +1.5 | Top | 118-120 | Win | 100 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
NBA Tuesday Atlanta Hawks +1.5 vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 7:40 ET - The Hawks are at home off a loss and that is a situation that has seen them go 6-2 the last 8. I like Atlanta to bounce back here at home as the host team has won both meetings between these teams this season and both wins were by double digit margins. The Cavaliers have won 6 of 8 games but the 6 wins included 4 against teams that are currently not in a playoff or play-in position while the other 2 wins came against a struggling Nets team that is a shell of its former self. The Hawks are still in a key position and need to improve their position in the standings and will go strong here at home. Note that Cleveland has been great at home but actually is a below .500 team on the road and I love the Hawks here off a loss to bounce back. ATLANTA +1.5 |
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03-28-23 | Blue Jackets v. Rangers OVER 6.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 0 m | Show |
NHL Tuesday OVER 6.5 in New York Rangers vs Columbus Blue Jackets @ 7:07 ET - I do have respect for the Rangers and their goaltending but they are coming off some big wins against tough opponents plus have a match-up with the Devils on deck. That said, who could fault them if they overlook the Blue Jackets at least a little bit here and give up 3 goals? No one really could fault them for that but the fact is one could also expect them to pile up about 5 goals here in a big win. Looking for at least a total of 7 here as the Blue Jackets continue to give up piles of goals but also have scored a little better of late. 9 of last 10 Columbus games have totaled at least 7 goals. The Jackets have scored 3.4 goals per game last 14 games. The Blue Jackets also have allowed 5.4 goals per game last 11 games. Neither of those stats includes OT or SO goals of course. The Rangers have won 6 of 7 games and scored an average of 5 goals in their last 10 home wins. Don't be surprised if we see a 5-3 type game or 5-2 or 4-3. Definitely expecting 8 or more here but should get 7 at least. OVER 6.5 in New York Rangers |
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03-28-23 | Wisconsin v. North Texas -1.5 | Top | 54-56 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
NIT Tuesday North Texas -1.5 vs Wisconsin Badgers @ 7 ET - Mean Green 29-7 this season and allowed 55 points or less in regulation time 7 of last 8 games. The Badgers also playing solid defense and are known for that but they have allowed an average of 65 points in regulation time of their last 7 games. Also, lets not forget Wisconsin had lost 12 of 18 games entering this tournament. Certainly Wisconsin has played the tougher schedule but this North Texas team is loaded with confidence and favored here for a reason. The odds makers are sharp and they have a CUSA team that faced a weaker schedule favored over the Big Ten team for a reason. Look for the Mean Green to ride their stifling defense on the way to punching their ticket to the NIT Championship Game Thursday. NORTH TEXAS -1.5 |
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03-28-23 | Belarus v. Romania OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 110 | 8 h 53 m | Show |
2024 European Championship Qualifying, Group Stage Tuesday OVER 2.5 +110 in Romania vs Belarus @ 2:45 ET - Of course Romania is favored by 1.5 goals on the goal line here for a reason. I expect them to get a multi-goal win here but am most comfortable with the over. I expect Belarus to score a goal here and a likely 2-1 or 3-1 final. Belarus is off B2B shutout losses but this was preceded by them scoring at least 1 goal in 3 straight matches and 8 of last 11 matches. The last 5 meetings between Romania and Belarus have seen 4 of them total at least 4 goals and those 4 averaged 5 goals! Romania is still angry from missing out on the 2020 European Championship and wants to make sure they participate this time around. That means they keep the hammer down here. Their first match ended 2-0 but their opponent had a red card at about the 60' mark and that is what likely prevented the match from seeing a 3rd goal. This one should get there as Romania is at home plus enters this one having averaged 3 goals per game last 4 games. OVER 2.5 +110 in Romania |
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03-28-23 | Latvia v. Wales OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -130 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
2024 European Championship Qualifying, Group Stage Tuesday OVER 2.5 -125 in Wales vs Latvia @ 2:45 ET - Of course Wales is favored by 1.5 goals on the goal line here for a reason. I expect them to get a multi-goal win here but am most comfortable with the over. I expect Latvia to score a goal here and a likely 2-1 or 3-1 final. Latvia is off a 3-2 loss to Ireland and actually has scored at least 1 goal (and averaged 1.8 goals scored!) in last 12 matches! Granted that included some weaker competition too of course but, still, 12 straight matches with at least 1 goal is impressive. Wales has conceded at least 1 goal in 9 straight matches and has allowed an average of 1.8 goals per match during this 9-match stretch. Wales has not scored that well of late but, again, they are a huge favorite here for a reason and they are off a 1-1 draw with Croatia. That was quite impressive as Croatia has been so tough including that huge World Cup run. This one is in Cardiff and the hosts should do some damage against on out-classed foe. That helps insure we see at least 3 goals here. OVER 2.5 -125 in Wales |
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03-27-23 | Wolves +5 v. Kings | Top | 119-115 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
NBA Monday Minnesota Timberwolves +5 @ Sacramento Kings @ 10:10 ET - The Timberwolves in a back to back spot but they have a critical position in the standings and have won 3 straight games and have Karl-Anthony Towns back and I just do not see them slowing down here. Their roll should continue. Also, De'Aaron Fox is still dealing with a hamstring injury for the Kings too. The Sacramento point guard is a key player and may not be 100% here if he is even able to go. The Kings are off B2B wins but this was preceded by B2B losses and this team has allowed 124 ppg last 5 games. No matter who is on the floor here, I like the defensive intensity and overall defensive intensity the Wolves brought to the game at Golden State last night and feel there were will be some carryover here to this game. Also, great value with having the points here. If you look at Sacramento's last 4 losses, 3 of them were very tight. One by just 2 points, one in OT and one in double-overtime. Yes, the Kings are motivated to win here too as they are still looking to lock up a playoff spot officially but T-wolves already took 2 of the 3 meetings this season and the only Sacramento win was in overtime. Grab the points. MINNESOTA +5 |
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03-27-23 | Panthers v. Senators OVER 7 | Top | 2-5 | Push | 0 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
NHL Monday OVER 7 in Ottawa Senators vs Florida Panthers @ 7:07 ET - I know Sogaard might be back between the pipes tonight and he is off B2B solid starts. However, prior to this he had been struggling. Look at Ottawa's overall numbers too. The Senators have gone 8-7-1 last 16 games. 12 of those 16 games totaled at least 7 goals and this one should too. Florida beat the Sens 5-3 in the first meeting and a similar result could be on tap here. 7 of last 8 Panthers games have totaled at least 7 goals. The Panthers have allowed 4 goals per game last 7 games but also scored 4 goals per game last 8 games. Don't be surprised if each team finds a way to 4 goals here and you see some crazy 5-4 final. Based on the way these teams are going, that would not shock me at all if we see 9 in this one. OVER 7 in Ottawa |
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03-27-23 | Canadiens v. Sabres OVER 7 | Top | 4-3 | Push | 0 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
NHL Monday OVER 7 in Buffalo Sabres vs Montreal Canadiens @ 7:07 ET - Buffalo off a truly shocking result with a 2-0 shutout win in their most recent game. Note that Comrie got the shutout but he has struggled overall this season. Also, the Sabres entered that game allowing an average of 5 goals per game their prior 8 games! Buffalo also has seen 10 of last 13 home games total at least 7 goals and 9 of those 10 totaled at least 8 goals so do not let the big number on this total scare you. The Canadiens are off a big 8-2 win. Not sure what was more surprising really. The fact they scored 8 goals or allowed only 2? The fact is that Montreal has scored 4.4 goals per game last 7 games! Also, prior to the 8-2 win, the Habs had allowed 4.5 goals per game last 10 games. This one sets up well for 4 scored or 4 allowed or both! Either way I am looking for 7 or more and 9 would be my top choice but think we'll see at least 8 goals given all of the above. OVER 7 in Buffalo |
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03-27-23 | Czech Republic v. Moldova OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -145 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
2024 European Championship Qualifying, Group Stage Monday OVER 2.5 -145 in Moldova vs Czech Republic @ 2:45 ET - Czech Republic just has too much for an out-classed Moldova squad here but rather than laying a heavy goal-line on the road, I feel the best way to play this one is the total. Moldova has scored 10 goals in last 7 matches and failed to score only once in those 7 and I expect Czech Republic to be very aggressive on the attack here like they were in their 3-1 win over Poland last time out. That said, do not be surprised if Moldova breaks through for a goal. However, the big key to the over is the fact that Moldova has allowed an average of 2 goals per match last 7 matches and is likely to struggle to slow down their opponents in this one. Moldova is off a 1-1 draw with Faroe Islands and that is essentially the same group of players that Czech Republic just defeated in November by a 5-0 count. It has been two decades since these clubs met but coincidentally, that one was also a 5-0 win for Czech over Moldova. There is just a big disparity between the level of talent of the hosts here and Czech Republic and I expect that to lead to a rather wide open match that easily gets to at least the 3-goal mark. OVER 2.5 -145 in Moldova |
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03-26-23 | Blues v. Kings OVER 6.5 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
NHL Sunday OVER 6.5 in Los Angeles Kings vs St Louis Blues @ 10:35 ET - Both teams were in action yesterday and I am expecting plenty of goals tonight. 9 of last 13 St Louis games have totaled at least 7 goals. The Blues have scored an average of 4 goals per game last 9 games. St Louis has allowed an average of 3.5 goals last 13 games and now takes on a Los Angeles team that has won 17 of 24 games and has been scoring goals like crazy. The Kings have averaged scoring 4 goals per game during this long-term stretch of consistency! LA has not been allowing many goals but the fact this is a B2B plus Kings off a big win yesterday and the way the Blues have been scoring so well and are playing with no pressure, STL will score quite well here also. OVER 6.5 in Los Angeles Kings |
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03-26-23 | Grizzlies -130 v. Hawks | Top | 123-119 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
NBA Sunday Top Play Memphis Grizzlies Money Line -130 @ Atlanta Hawks @ 6:10 ET - I am seeing line of -2 but many with juice at -115. That said, with this money line as low as the -125/-130 range in some books I am recommending laying just a little more juice to make a Grizzlies SU by any margin also an ATS win. Atlanta got a big win versus Indiana yesterday but they shot lights out in that game and I do not expect that to be repeated here. Also, the Hawks are 1-5 SU the last 6 times when they enter a game off a win. Keep in mind, Atlanta could again be without De'Andre Hunter. Conversely, Ja Morant is back for the Grizzlies and Memphis has seemed to rally around the entire off-court situation that Morant has been dealing with. The Grizzlies have won 5 straight and 8 of 9 games! They already blasted the Hawks in Memphis earlier this season and they get another big road win here as the Hawks inconsistencies continue. MEMPHIS -130 |
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03-26-23 | Maple Leafs v. Predators OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
NHL Sunday OVER 6.5 in Nashville Predators vs Toronto Maple Leafs @ 6:07 ET - The Predators got hammered 7-2 yesterday and the Maple Leafs got rocked 5-3 yesterday. 8 of Toronto's last 9 games have totaled at least 7 goals. Those 8 games have averaged 8 goals apiece. The Preds have either scored or allowed 7 goals in 3 of their last 4 games! Lankinen will probably start in goal tonight for Nashville and he is off a horrific outing on the road in which he allowed 4 goals on just 5 shots. He wants to bounce back here but has allowed 3 or more goals in 3 of his last 4 home starts! For the Leafs, with Samsonov way from the team right now (not on road trip as his wife expecting birth of child) and Murray starting last night, that means this will be a #3 or #4 choice in goal for Toronto. Look for plenty of scoring as Predators will push hard coming off a loss and trying to get into the post-season and you know the Maple Leafs want to respond as well off yesterday's disappointment and looking to improve playoff positioning. OVER 6.5 in Nashville |
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03-26-23 | Miami-FL +4 v. Texas | Top | 88-81 | Win | 100 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
NCAA Sunday Miami Hurricanes +4 vs Texas Longhorns @ 5:05 ET - The Longhorns faced a pair of double digit seeds and then things toughened with a match-up against a #3 seed, Xavier. Even without their big man Dylan Disu (he could only go 2 minutes), the Horns prevailed. So how did they do it? Well some other guys stepped up but the real key was UT hitting 52.5 percent overall and 58.3% from three point land! Shooting percentages like that are tough to beat BUT also tough to repeat! The Longhorns will likely again be without Disu here and, against a scrappy Hurricanes team getting strong veteran leadership and strong play too, this could be the end for Texas. I am grabbing the points just in case but I am expecting the outright upset here. Even if Disu plays he is not 100% and this Canes team is playing with a lot of confidence and looks very complete and also is very well-coached. Miami is a high-quality team that is peaking at the right time and just beat a #4 seed and a #1 seed and got each win by double digits! This Hurricanes team is starting to believe and I know they, like Texas, had hot shooting in their most recent win BUT the key here is they are really healthy AND they are catching 4 points here. I do not think we'll need those points but we'll take them just in case but I am expecting an upset here. MIAMI +4 |
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03-26-23 | Creighton v. San Diego State +2.5 | Top | 56-57 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
NCAA Sunday San Diego State Aztecs +2.5 vs Creighton Bluejays @ 2:20 ET - Why is Creighton favored over higher-seeded San Diego State here and an Aztecs team that has half as many losses? Well, the Bluejays have looked very good and so the odds makers and betting markets have reacted to that. This got me to look closer at this match-up and the fact is Creighton deserves credit of course but they have beaten two double digit seeds to get here and then what about the other win? Baylor was the impressive win but note that the Jays went 22 for 22 from the line and the Bears got to the line nearly as many times but only made 13. Also, Creighton shot 11 of 24 from beyond the arc while Baylor took nearly just as many but made only 5 of them. So when you consider all the facts here, the Bluejays did win that game by 9 points but they outscored the Bears by 27 points at the line and beyond the arc simply because of some extremely good shooting numbers that were outliers in my opinion. I feel this is giving us value here and I feel San Diego State will be able to slow down Creighton. Keep in mind, the Aztecs also had the good fortune of facing a couple of double digit seeds but then they faced top-seeded Alabama and won that game despite shooting poorly from everywhere. From the field overall, from 3-point land, at the free throw line...all the numbers were ugly for San Diego State at the offensive end. But they can win ugly again here as this team knows how to D up and grind out wins. Good value with the points. SAN DIEGO STATE +2.5 |
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03-26-23 | Ukraine v. England OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -142 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
2024 European Championship Qualifying, Group Stage Sunday OVER 2.5 -145 in England vs Ukraine @ Noon ET - We have to lay some juice to have the over 2.5 here but it should prove well worth it as England could get this total by themselves and it certainly would not be a shock. However, I do expect a revitalized (new manager and fresh legs) to find the back of the net in this match too. That means a 3-1 final would be likely based on the big 1.5 number on the goal line in favor of England. So whether it ends 3-0 or 2-1 or 3-1 we would be fine here with this play and I like our chances. England, in the only meeting with Ukraine in past 9 years, won the match 4-0 in July 2021 in UEFA European Championship action. Look for another one to total 4 goals here as well although 3 goals also serves our purposes just fine. England won 2-1 at Italy Thursday and that was their 4th straight match to total at least 3 goals and there should have been even more scoring there. Ukraine off a scoreless draw in UEFA Nations League action in September but this was preceded by 3 of 4 matches totaling at least 3 goals. Ukraine had scored 23 goals in 14 matches prior to the scoreless draw with Scotland. The high-scoring ways resume here! OVER 2.5 -145 in England |
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03-25-23 | Connecticut v. Gonzaga +2.5 | Top | 82-54 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
NCAA Saturday Top Play Gonzaga Bulldogs +2.5 vs Connecticut Huskies @ 8:49 ET - The Huskies embarrassed Arkansas (and me) on Thursday as my big play was on the Razorbacks then. But what really happened? Give credit to Connecticut for sure but if you look at the box score, you'll see some keys that have led to value here. The Huskies actually had 17 turnovers compared to just 10 for Arky. Also, UConn had 9 LESS shots from the field than Arkansas! The key was the Huskies shot a ridiculous 57% from the field compared to Razorbacks shooting an equally ridiculous 32% from the field! That included Huskies outscoring the Hogs by 12 points from beyond the arc. I also like the fact that Arkansas had 6 more free throws than the Huskies. The point is that the box score says a lot about how that game played out as it has some interesting statistical anomalies and now we get a little extra value here with a very tough and resilient and battle-tested and well-coached Gonzaga team. Facing TCU and UCLA were very tough tests for Gonzaga and help them here as Huskies certainly had the easier draw with St Mary's and Arkansas last 2 games. Bulldogs hammered St Mary's by 26 in the WCC Championship Game earlier this month. Although certainly respect is given to head coach Dan Hurley of UConn, Mark Few of the Bulldogs has long been known one of, if not the, best one currently coaching college basketball. Don't be surprised if that is a key element in crunch time as this game plays out. Top Play GONZAGA +2.5 |
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03-25-23 | Blue Jackets v. Canadiens OVER 6.5 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
NHL Saturday OVER 6.5 in Montreal Canadiens vs Columbus Blue Jackets @ 7:07 ET - The Blue Jackets off a 5-4 win in OT last night and I look for another wild one tonight as they now travel to take on a Montreal team that also has been out of the playoff picture for quite some time and their goals allowed pattern reflects that as well. The Canadiens have lost 10 of 12 games and allowed 4.3 goals per game during this stretch. Montreal is off a 4-2 loss at Boston but the Bruins have been the best team in the league this season. Prior to being held to 2 goals at Boston, the Habs scored at least 3 goals in 8 of last 9 games. Keep in mind, we just need each team to get to at least 3 here and we then can not do any worse than a 4-3 final. Montreal should enjoy success against a Blue Jackets team allowing nearly 5 goals per game last 13 games. The thing is...Columbus has been scoring well lately too and that continued last night even though Laine is now out with an injury. The Jackets have now scored 4 or more goals in 5 of last 8 games. 8 of last 9 Columbus games have totaled at least 7 goals and all signs point to the same thing here. OVER 6.5 in Montreal |
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03-25-23 | Florida Atlantic +2 v. Kansas State | Top | 79-76 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
NCAA Saturday Florida Atlantic Owls +2 vs Kansas State Wildcats @ 6:09 ET - The Owls are a #9 seed and catching just a bucket here against a Wildcats team that is from the Big 12 and seeded #3 too. Long-time followers know I am a contrarian and, in typical contrarian fashion, I am grabbing Florida Atlantic here. Everyone will be lining up on Kansas State thinking this is a trap line, etc. but look for the Cats to get upset in this one. FAU has plenty of confidence after outscoring Tennessee 40-28 in the 2nd half of their game Thursday. Kansas State blew 7 point leads multiple times in the 2nd half of their win over Michigan State. They ultimately got the win in overtime but the Wildcats could be a little more susceptible here after the way all that played out with an inability to hold on to leads as that game went on. FLORIDA ATLANTIC +2 |
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03-25-23 | Pacers +9.5 v. Hawks | Top | 130-143 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
NBA Saturday Indiana Pacers +9.5 @ Atlanta Hawks @ 5:10 ET - The Pacers lost by 25 at Boston last night but actually won the game by 17 points inside the arc. Why do I say that? Because the Celtics outscored Indiana by 42 points from three point land! Boston made 18 threes while the Pacers were an uncharacteristic 4 of 26 from three point land. That is unlikely to be repeated here plus Indiana got Haliburton back last night and might have Duarte back this evening. Either way, I like the Pacers here catching big points after last night's unusual results. Prior to last night's blowout loss due to disparate 3-point shooting results, Indiana had won 8 of 14 and 3 of the 6 losses were by 6 or less points. As you can see, a lot of value here with Pacers catching big points. The Hawks have only 2 wins by more than 8 points in last 13 games! Great value with the big points here! INDIANA +9.5 |
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03-25-23 | Sabres v. Islanders OVER 6.5 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
NHL Saturday OVER 6.5 in New York Islanders vs Buffalo Sabres @ 5:07 ET - Both teams in action last night. The Sabres won 5-4 and the Islanders lost 5-4 in OT. Both teams entered yesterday's game trending toward high-scoring games too so I look for it to continue here. Buffalo has seen 15 of last 21 games total at least 7 goals! Islanders have seen 5 of last 7 games total at least 7 goals and those 7 games have averaged 7.4 goals apiece. Isles have scored at least 4 goals in 4 straight games. Sabres have scored at least 3 goals in 5 of last 8 games and reached the 4 goal mark in 4 of those 5 games. OVER 6.5 in New York Islanders |
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03-25-23 | Romania -1.5 v. Andorra | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
2024 European Championship Qualifying, Group Stage Saturday Romania Goal Line -1.5 -150 @ Andorra @ 3:45 ET - Romania has qualified in 2000 and 2008 and 2016 and keeps alternating with years like 2004 and 2012 and 2020 in which they did not qualify. That said, they will bring a little extra edginess here as a result and I expect a blowout victory over an outclassed foe. Andorra is at home which is keeping this line more manageable but Romania still should dominate and win this by 2 or more goals. If you saw Moldova barely tie Faroe Islands yesterday (penalty kick at 87' mark) note that essentially that is the same level of Moldova club that beat Andorra last June while Romania hammered neighboring Moldova last November by a 5-0 count. That is just one example of the disparity between these clubs. Another is that Romania has beaten Andorra 4 straight times by a combined score of 14 to 1. This one also has blowout written all over it and so I am willing to lay the price here to have the goal line at less than 2 in this one. ROMANIA -1.5 -150 |
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03-24-23 | Bulls -140 v. Blazers | Top | 124-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
NBA Friday 10* Top Play Chicago Bulls Money Line -140 @ Portland Trail Blazers @ 10:10 ET - Great set up here in my opinion and, it looks like, the odds makers opinion too. Think about it. Why is the road team favored here? Exactly! Someone knows something and I do love the situational factors here. The Bulls are off a loss but this followed 3 straight wins including wins in 5 of 6. Some impressive wins too but then Chicago got hammered at home by the 76ers! I am sure they will make up for that here and the set up is perfect here because Trail Blazers off a big road win but have won B2B games only one time since early February. Odds are their struggles resume immediately. Portland, prior to the win, had lost 6 straight and 14 of 19 games. Bulls already took the game in Chicago this season and they take the reverse match-up here as well. 10* CHICAGO -140 |
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03-24-23 | Xavier +4.5 v. Texas | Top | 71-83 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
NCAA Friday Xavier Musketeers +4.5 vs Texas Longhorns @ 9:45 ET - As I mentioned in fading the Longhorns with Penn State +5.5 last weekend, "Texas is playing great and deserves all the accolades they are getting for sure. I have been riding with the Longhorns quite often this season. However, this is a much tougher match-up for them. They go from facing a #15 seed in Colgate to facing a tough Big Ten team that just knocked off a solid SEC team in impressive fashion. Penn State did not just beat the Aggies Thursday, they dominated in that game from mid-first period on." Now UT faces a tough Big East team in the form of Xavier. After UConn trashed cold-shooting Arkansas yesterday, the Big East could have 3 teams in the Elite 8 if they upset Texas here and if Creighton knocks off Princeton tonight as well. The point is that the Big East was very tough this season. I know the Big 12 was certainly very strong this season too but if Kansas State did not win in OT yesterday and if UT did get upset here, they would have no one in the Elite 8 while Big East would have 3 of the 8 teams (barring major upset with Princeton tonight). Note that 6 of 9 Musketeers losses this season have been by 4 or less points. They won both games this season with Connecticut including one by a margin of 10 plus they beat Creighton by more than 20 in one of their meetings with them. The Longhorns last 24 games have featured only 10 Texas wins by more than 5 points. I like are chances here in going against the higher seed here and feel Xavier has the perfect underdog mindset entering this one. All the pressure on Texas here and I feel it catches up with them in this one. XAVIER +4.5 |
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03-24-23 | Miami-FL +7.5 v. Houston | Top | 89-75 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
NCAA Friday Miami Hurricanes +7.5 vs Houston Cougars @ 7:15 ET - I have plenty of respect for Houston as the Cougars are a rock solid team that is among the best in the nation this season. However, I expect the points to prove to be too much here. As I noted in my play on Miami over Indiana in the 2nd round: "I look for the Hurricanes defense to help lead the way to an upset here and to be the difference-maker in this one. Miami had to turn up the heat on defense to get past Drake in the first round. The Bulldogs are a solid team and it was impressive and a big confidence booster that the Canes were down 7 at one point in 2nd half and rallied but then fell behind by 8 and again had to rally! The Hurricanes outscored Drake by 16-1 to close out the game and I like the leadership, poise and defensive intensity seen from the Canes in that one. Keep in mind, losses for the Canes have been few and far between this season and, prior to losing in the ACC tourney to Duke, the Hurricanes 4 losses in the 12-4 stretch leading into that game were by an average margin of just 2 points! Given that fact, though I expect the upset here, we'll grab the couple points just in case!" So the point is, there is a lot to like about how this Hurricanes team has been playing such competitive basketball for such a long period of time. Yes they may fall short of the upset this time as, of course, Houston is better than Indiana. However, we do not need an upset to cash our ticket here. Grab the points in this one! MIAMI +7.5 |
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03-24-23 | Islanders v. Blue Jackets OVER 6 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
NHL Friday OVER 6 in Columbus Blue Jackets vs New York Islanders @ 7:05 ET - The Blue Jackets announced an injury to Patrick Laine and that has resulted in this total being a 6 in some spots. We'll take the extra value. Yes he is their 2nd leading scorer and a key player but, though he had 2 assists, he had none of the 7 goals the Blue Jackets just had in their most recent game. Also, Columbus has allowed an average of nearly 5 goals in their last dozen games. Keep in mind, this total is just a 6 and 9 of last 10 Blue Jackets games have totaled at least 6 goals. This one will too as the Islanders last 6 games have averaged 7 goals and only 1 of the 6 failed to get to the 6 goal mark. OVER 6 in Columbus |
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03-24-23 | Devils v. Sabres OVER 6.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 43 m | Show |
NHL Friday OVER 6.5 in Buffalo Sabres vs New Jersey Devils @ 7:05 ET - The juice on the over 6.5 with this one is a little higher but should prove well worth it. The Sabres last 20 games have seen 15 of them total at least 7 goals! Buffalo has allowed 4.6 goals per game during this stretch. Sabres do tend to score better at home and should get their fair share here but they will struggle to stop the Devils. Note that New Jersey has scored an average of 4 goals per game last 8 road games. The Devils, like the Sabres, have had some issues lately with allowing too many goals and I expect that to continue here. They are off B2B better efforts but this followed a 10-game stretch in which NJ allowed an average of 3.2 goals per game. This one has all the makings of one of those games where it is tough to envision either team having trouble getting to the 3-goal mark. That said, this one gets to 4-3 at a minimum the way I see it. OVER 6.5 in Buffalo |
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03-23-23 | Florida Atlantic +5.5 v. Tennessee | Top | 62-55 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
NCAA Thursday Florida Atlantic Owls +5.5 vs Tennessee Volunteers @ 9 ET - The Owls are from the smaller conference but are a very confident team that has been scoring very well and confidence building with each win here in March. Florida Atlantic faced a pair of SEC teams early this season and lost to Ole Miss but beat Florida. The Owls beat a solid Memphis team here in the tourney and then beat the Fairleigh Dickinson team that knocked off Purdue and that win over the Boilermakers was no fluke. Tennessee is playing very solid defense but they did lose 7 of last 12 games this season before the NCAA Tourney. The Volunteers then won their first game of the tourney by only 3 points even though it was against a #13 seed. Then Duke made just 6 of 22 three pointers and only 4 free throws in the game the Vols won by 13 last weekend. That is not happening again here against this Owls team. FAU is making 37% of threes this season and averaging 9 made per game. The Owls also average about a dozen free throws made per game. The way these teams match-up it could be a bit of a low-scoring grinder which means even more value with the sizable points here and I look for the Owls to surprise in this one. FLORIDA ATLANTIC +5.5 |
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03-23-23 | Golden Knights v. Flames OVER 6 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -113 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
NHL Thursday OVER 6 in Calgary Flames vs Vegas Golden Knights @ 9:05 ET - The Flames hammered the Golden Knights 7-2 in Vegas so you know that this is a revenge spot for VGK and they will be looking to limit Calgary here. However, the Flames are just too strong on home ice in terms of the goal-scoring and I am looking for a very high-scoring entertaining affair here as a result. Calgary has scored an average of 4.5 goals in last 6 games. However, the Flames have also allowed 4 goals per game last 5 games and you know Vegas is going to come out flying here. The Golden Knights have won 9 of 11 games and scored an average of 4 goals per game during this stretch. Vegas also has allowed 3 goals per game in last 10 games and I am looking for each club to get to 3 goals here which means it has to end with a total of at least 7 goals and a minimum of 4-3 final if we get each team to 3. Sure looks like this one has the makings of that type of game. OVER 6 in Calgary |
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03-23-23 | Arkansas +4.5 v. Connecticut | Top | 65-88 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
NCAA Thursday Top Play Arkansas Razorbacks +4.5 vs Connecticut Huskies @ 7:15 ET - Huskies beat a MAAC team and a WCC team to get here. Certainly St Mary's is a solid team year in and year out in recent seasons but they play in the WCC where they face Gonzaga but then a bunch of much weaker teams throughout the season. OF course the Iona team that UConn beat in round one also faces a lot of weaker competition since they come from the MAAC. The point is that UConn might be over-rated here and certainly is a little over-valued in my opinion. The Huskies did beat Alabama early this season but then went 2-5 against ranked teams the rest of the season. Also, heading into the NCAA Tourney, UConn went 11-8 overall after starting the season 14-0. Arkansas, on the other hand, had to beat a Big Ten school and Big 12 team to get here as they knocked off Illinois and then Kansas. So, the point is, the Razorbacks might be putting things together at the right time. Also, Arkansas was down by double digits in the 2nd half of their win over the Jayhawks so they had to show great resiliency in bouncing back for the win. Nick Smith is their #2 leading scorer this season in terms of ppg (missed a lot of the season) and the Razorbacks won that game over Kansas despite him scoring 0 points! Love the fact that Arky beat the Jayhawks despite making only 3 of 15 three pointers. The Huskies had very hot shooting against the Gaels and they can't keep shooting at that clip and the gritty Razorbacks give them a helluva test here and possibly even score the upset. We'll grab the points just in case. Top Play ARKANSAS +4.5 |
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03-23-23 | Wild v. Flyers +140 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 140 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
NHL Thursday Philadelphia Flyers Money Line +130 vs Minnesota Wild @ 6:35 ET - The Flyers offer great home dog value here. All the pressure is on the Wild in this match-up and the Flyers are likely to start Carter Hart in goal for this one. Hart has been great at home traditionally and is also red hot of late on home ice. In his last 4 home starts he has allowed a total of only 8 goals in regulation time of those starts. Philadelphia will be facing Marc-Andre Fleury in this one most likely. He has had some ugly starts in Philly in the past. He is a long-time veteran and I know he has played better of late but the former Penguin never found Philly to be a favorite place of his for sure. At the same time, he enters this start having allowed 8 goals in his last two starts including 5 in his most recent road start. As strong as Minny has been overall, they still have lost 12 of last 28 games and the Flyers are 3-1-1 in last 5 home games and will be going hard again here. This is one of those dangerous games for the rather heavy road favorite. PHILADELPHIA +130 |
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03-23-23 | Estonia v. Hungary OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
International Friendly Thursday OVER 2.5 in Hungary vs Estonia @ 2:30 ET - This is very similar to yesterday's play on the over 2.5 in Ireland and that one had 4 goals by half-time and finished with a total of 5 goals scored. Hungary is favored to win this match by 1.5 goals on the goal line. That means decent odds they could even win this match by a multi-goal margin but I really like the fact they are about a -300 favorite on the money line and yet decent odds on Estonia scoring at least 1 goal in this one. Yes it sets up to be a bit of a mismatch but if that is the case also don't be surprised if Hungary wins 3-0 as they have averaged scoring 3.3 goals in last 3 meetings with Estonia. However, I really do not expect a clean sheet here. Don't be surprised if this match instead finishes 2-1 or 3-1 as I do expect Estonia to make the net ripple at least once. Across all competitions, Estonia has scored at least 1 goal in 6 straight matches and averaged 1.8 goals scored in those half-dozen matches. As for Hungary, they have scored at least 1 goal in 11 of last 13 matches and have averaged 1.6 goals scored in last 12 matches. Considering they will be without their top goalie choice here, there are even higher odds that Estonia scores at least once in this one and that puts a little more pressure on Hungary to score so I am expecting a 2-1 final at a minimum but more likely 3-1. Either way, I am looking for 3 here at least! OVER 2.5 in Hungary |
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03-22-23 | Coyotes v. Oilers OVER 7 | Top | 3-4 | Push | 0 | 16 h 45 m | Show |
NHL Wednesday OVER 7 in Edmonton Oilers vs Arizona Coyotes @ 10:35 ET - Big total set on this game but Oilers games continue to be crazy. Edmonton has allowed 3.7 goals per game, not including OT or SO of course, last 18 games. Edmonton also has scored - in their 19-10 run last 29 games - 4.6 goals per game. This is incredible firepower on offense and could easily expect a 5-3 game here based on the line for this one. Oilers are a huge favorite on the money line with good reason of course and are likely to win this game by a multi-goal margin. Arizona off some surprisingly low-scoring games recently but remember they lost at Edmonton 8-2 earlier this season. Also, prior to 2-1 loss to Winnipeg, the Coyotes had won 6 of 7 games and scored an average of 4 goals per game last 8 games prior to the loss to the Jets. Arizona allowing an average of about 4 goals per game last 6 games and they are in trouble here against the high-flying Oilers but, again, do not be surprised if the Coyotes contribute well to this total too. 10* OVER 7 in Edmonton |
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03-22-23 | Suns -120 v. Lakers | Top | 111-122 | Loss | -120 | 18 h 38 m | Show |
NBA Wednesday Phoenix Suns Money Line -110/-120 @ Los Angeles Lakers @ 10:10 ET - We get some line value here because of Deandre Ayton being out again for the Suns and of course Kevin Durant remains out. Regarding Ayton being out for this game, note that Bismack Biyombo has played well in his absence. Also, big man Jock Landale has 25 points in just 42 minutes in the last 3 games and the 7-footer can also help out in this game with Ayton being out. Of course the Lakers remain without Lebron James and this is just not a very good Los Angeles team. Though they still have Anthony Davis he is dealing with a right foot stress injury and is not 100%. Phoenix has won the first two meetings this season by an average margin of 18 points. The Lakers are trying to keep their playoff hopes alive but Suns in crucial fight for playoff positioning so they have plenty of motivation too. Los Angeles off a win but this followed losses in 3 of 4 games. The Suns off a road loss and it was their 2nd straight defeat away from home but this followed an 8-2 SU run in road games! The Suns had faced a tough schedule of late but now this match-up is much more favorable for them and they will take advantage. Rather than laying a point or 1.5 here I am grabbing the money line which is available as low as -110 on this one. PHOENIX -110/-120 |
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03-22-23 | Penguins v. Avalanche OVER 6.5 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 0 m | Show |
NHL Wednesday OVER 6.5 in Colorado Avalanche vs Pittsburgh Penguins @ 8:05 ET - The Penguins still fighting for a wild card spot and Avalanche still have hopes of actually being the #1 seed in the Western Conference as they have been on a strong run again of late. Pittsburgh has gone cold with losses in 4 straight games overall. Also, the Penguins have allowed at least 4 goals in 4 straight road games and have allowed an average of 4.5 goals in those 4 away games. That said, the red hot Avs should stay hot but I also do expect the Penguins to get back on track in the goal-scoring department. Pittsburgh is off a 2-1 loss but actually has scored an average of 4 goals per game the last 6 times they were coming off a loss by a one-goal margin. Colorado has won 6 straight games and scored an average of 4.5 goals per game last 8 games! The Avalanche are off a shutout win on home ice but allowed 3.4 goals per game in their 5 home games prior to that one. I am looking for at least a 4-3 final here given all of the above. OVER 6.5 in Colorado |
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03-22-23 | UAB v. Vanderbilt | Top | 67-59 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
NIT Wednesday UAB Blazers +1.5 @ Vanderbilt Commodores @ 7 ET - This line is right around a pick'em even though UAB plays in CUSA and Vanderbilt plays in the SEC and even though Commodores are at home for this one. Note that Vandy is 14-5 at home this season while the Blazers are just 6-5 in road games this season. When you consider all of these factors and then you are staring at a line in the pick'em range, I think this tells you all you need to know here. This is a major trap the way I see it and I am not following for it. Play the road team that has the mediocre road record and is from the smaller conference. Go against the home team that is so strong as a host and is from the bigger conference. This is a contrarian play but given all these variables you can see why I like it and this is something that has worked well at a high cash-in rate in the past. More of the same here. Note that the Blazers have won 14 of 16 games and have won easily in each of their two NIT games. As for the Commodores they had to rally from a big 2nd half deficit to down the Wolverines. I know they earned it with the comeback win but that big win for Vanderbilt over Michigan could be their defining moment of the tourney that leaves them finished here. I am backing the road team most will not want here. UAB +1.5 |
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03-21-23 | Thunder v. Clippers -6.5 | Top | 101-100 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
NBA Tuesday Los Angeles Clippers -6.5 vs Oklahoma City Thunder @ 10:40 ET - Both teams off a win that followed a loss but the real key here the way I see it is that this is a double revenge spot for the Clippers. LA lost both games against the Thunder this season but both of those meetings were in Oklahoma City. Now they finally get a chance at home facing OKC. The Thunder are 13-21 in road games this season and are just 2-4 SU last 6 road games and one of those wins was against a horrible Spurs team. That said, you can see the value we have with the home team here. Also, the last 6 losses for the Thunder have come by an average margin of 13 points per defeat. The Clippers have won 5 of 6 and the average margin of victory has been about 10 points. Look for this double-revenge spot to result in a home win by a double digit margin. LA CLIPPERS -6.5 |
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03-21-23 | Wisconsin v. Oregon -4.5 | Top | 61-58 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 54 m | Show |
NIT Tuesday Top Play Oregon Ducks -4.5 vs Wisconsin Badgers @ 9 ET - The Ducks have been winning even without their top three guys. That shows the depth of this Oregon team. Now, with a win at home over the Badgers Tuesday, the Ducks can head to Las Vegas for the quarterfinals and a potential shot at the NIT Championship should they win in the semi-finals there. First things first though...the Ducks must win this game to get there. That said, I would not be surprised to see 1 or 2 or possibly even all 3 of the top players back for Oregon in this one. Either way, I like the Ducks here but don't be surprised if Dante, Couisnard, and/or Richardson are back for this game. Note that Oregon is 15-5 in home games this season while the Badgers have a losing record in road games this season. Facing the Ducks in Eugene is much different than facing the likes of Liberty and Bradley in Madison. That is no disrespect to the Flames or Braves but, the point is, the travel and facing a very tough Pac-12 team on the road is absolutely a big deal here. Lay the points here. Top Play OREGON -4.5 |
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03-21-23 | Red Wings v. Blues OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
NHL Tuesday OVER 6.5 in St Louis Blues vs Detroit Red Wings @ 8:05 ET - Well aware of the fact that Joel Hofer is playing extremely well in his couple starts since being called up by the Blues. However, the St Louis netminder was born in Winnipeg and just beat the Jets in a 3-0 win in his most recent start. This is absolutely a flat spot for him and he comes in facing a Red Wings team hungry off a 5-2 home loss to Florida. The problem for Detroit is they used their #1 goalie last night in Husso. I know Hellberg is solid at times but overall he has struggled and particularly in recent start. Hellberg has allowed 13 goals in his last 3 starts and now faces a Blues team playing better here late in the season. St Louis has scored an average of 3.8 goals last 10 games. However, in the 9 games prior to that 3-0 shutout win over the Jets, the Blues allowed 4 goals per game! This is another one of those games that shapes up well for each team to get to the 3-goal mark and that means at least a 4-3 final. OVER 6.5 in St Louis |
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03-21-23 | Panthers v. Flyers OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 41 m | Show |
NHL Tuesday Top Play OVER 6.5 in Philadelphia Flyers vs Florida Panthers @ 7:05 ET - Panthers were in action last night and won 5-2 at Detroit. Florida started Bobrovsky in goal and he has been starting a long stretch of games consecutively for the Panthers because they have been avoiding B2B spots. However, now they are in a B2B situation and it probably will be Alex Lyon getting the start and it has been awhile for him. As for the Flyers, I know Carter Hart is off a strong start but he and Philly have been struggling overall. Now he faces a Florida team that has won 6 of 7 games and scored an average of 4.4 goals during this stretch. The Flyers should score well on home ice here though too because they'll take advantage Panthers in this back to back. The problem for Philly is they have allowed 4 goals per game last 16 games and lost 13 of those. The Flyers have scored an average of 3 goals per game last 7 home games and they have gone 3-3-3 last 9 home games so they will put up a fight here but struggle to stop the high-flying Panthers. The result will be a game with strong odds each team gets to at least 3 goals and that would mean it would have to end 4-3 at a minimum. OVER 6.5 in Philadelphia |
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03-21-23 | Plymouth Argyle v. Accrington OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
English League One Tuesday OVER 2.5 in Accrington Stanley vs Plymouth Argyle @ 3:45 ET - Accrington having a rough season but they are on their home pitch here and should do some damage against a Plymouth side that has allowed 1.5 goals per match as travelers this season. However, the key to the over is Accrington has allowed 3 or more goals in each of last 3 meetings with Plymouth! I just can not see that coming to an end here as Accrington is on a 4-match winless run and has allowed an average of 2 goals per match during this stretch. Plymouth has scored at least 2 goals in 4 of last 5 matches but also has allowed an average of 4 goals in last two road matches. This one should be very entertaining if you like goals! OVER 2.5 in Accrington Stanley |
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03-20-23 | Sharks v. Oilers OVER 7 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 110 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
NHL Monday OVER 7 in Edmonton Oilers vs San Jose Sharks @ 9:35 - Do not let the fact that this total is a 7 scare you away from the over. The fact is the over 7 is available at plus money and this one should easily see at least 8 goals. The Sharks continue giving up piles of goals. Even though San Jose has not been scoring that well of late, a trip to Edmonton has a way of healing any teams scoring woes. The Sharks have allowed 4.5 goals per game as they have lost 11 of 12 games! They have average scoring 3 goals per game last 9 road games and should get going again as they face Edmonton. The Oilers have allowed 3.7 goals per game, not including OT or SO of course, last 17 games. Edmonton also has scored - in their 18-10 run last 28 games - 4.6 goals per game. This is incredible firepower on offense and could easily expect a 5-3 game here based on the line for this one. Either way, I am expecting 8 or more goals in what should be a wide-open affair. Keep in mind, San Jose eliminated from the playoff picture so there should be plenty of open ice in a free-flowing match-up here. OVER 7 in Edmonton |
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03-20-23 | Bulls v. 76ers -7.5 | Top | 109-105 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
NBA Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers -7.5 vs Chicago Bulls @ 7:10 ET - The 76ers have won 8 straight games. They also have revenge here from a home loss to the Bulls in early January. Not only did Philly lose that game, Chicago got the better of them by a double digit margin. This will be a payback game! The Sixers are on a 36-10 run and Embiid missed that 14 point loss to the Bulls. Looking at Philly's last 46 games they had only one loss by a bigger margin than that one. In other words, the 76ers have not forgotten and you know Embiid will be ready to lead the way here for the Sixers to get some payback. Chicago has been playing well of late but let's not forget they are just 13-21 SU in road games this season. Also, the Bulls average margin of defeat last 14 games is 9 and I am looking for a double digit loss here as Philly wants to return the favor for what Chicago did to them the last time they met here. These teams meet again in Chicago on Wednesday so the Bulls have the full focus and attention of the Sixers here and the result should be a home blowout by a double digit margin. 10* PHILADELPHIA -7.5 |
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03-20-23 | Senators v. Penguins OVER 6.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -130 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
NHL Monday OVER 6.5 -130 in Pittsburgh Penguins vs Ottawa Senators @ 7:05 ET - The Senators have lost 5 straight but this was preceded by wins in 6 of 7. The prevailing theme throughout this stretch of a dozen games is plenty of goals. Ottawa has allowed 5 goals per game their past 7 games. However, the Sens also have scored an average of 4 goals in these dozen games. Considering the way the Pens have been trending of late this one shapes up to be a 5-4 type of game but at least 4-3. The likelihood of each team getting to at least 3 goals is quite good. The Penguins have followed a similar pattern to the Sens as they had been scoring well but then hit a losing skid too. Pittsburgh has lost 3 straight and is not getting goaltending from anyone of late. The Pens have allowed 4 or more goals in 7 of last 9 games. Pittsburgh has allowed an average of about 4 goals during this 9-game stretch. However, Penguins known for scoring well at home and have averaged 4.5 goals scored per game in their last 6 on home ice. OVER 6.5 -130 in Pittsburgh |
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03-20-23 | Wisc-Milwaukee v. Charlotte -5.5 | Top | 65-76 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
CBB Monday 10* Top Play Charlotte 49ers -5.5 vs Milwaukee Panthers @ 7:30 ET - Not only do the 49ers have a built-in rest edge here since they played on Saturday while the Panthers played yesterday on Saturday, note that Milwaukee had to go to OT to get that win yesterday. I feel UWM could be a little worn out here as they also like to play at a faster tempo than Charlotte. The 49ers are capable of slowing this game down and frustrating the Panthers with solid defense. Note that Charlotte has held teams in the 50s and 60s in many of their recent games. At the same time, Milwaukee has allowed 82 ppg in going 4-3 last 7 games and no that does not include OT points of course. This is the time of year when a team with stronger defensive capabilities can really turn up the heat on an opponent and frustrate them and that is what I see happening here. I feel there was a depth of stronger teams in the CUSA that were deeper and stronger then what we saw in the Horizon League this season. I am always hesitant to lay points and love backing dogs but this is absolutely the right situation to expect a blowout win by double digits for the home team. 10* CHARLOTTE -5.5 |
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03-19-23 | Miami-FL +2 v. Indiana | Top | 85-69 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
NCAA Sunday Top Play Miami Hurricanes +2 vs Indiana Hoosiers @ 8:40 ET - The Hoosiers are off an 11-point win over Kent State Friday. Indiana must have dominated, right? Hardly! The Golden Flashes were a ridiculous 15 of 48 from the field inside the arc. To put that in proper perspective, the Hoosiers made 24 of 48 from inside the 3-point line. So, give Indiana credit for sure but at the same time you can expect there will be no such disparity here. Repeat of that is unlikely and though I am extremely impressed with Trayce Jackson-Davis, as most everyone is, the fact is that the more complete overall team in this match-up is Miami. I look for the Hurricanes defense to help lead the way to an upset here and to be the difference-maker in this one. Miami had to turn up the heat on defense to get past Drake in the first round. The Bulldogs are a solid team and it was impressive and a big confidence booster that the Canes were down 7 at one point in 2nd half and rallied but then fell behind by 8 and again had to rally! The Hurricanes outscored Drake by 16-1 to close out the game and I like the leadership, poise and defensive intensity seen from the Canes in that one. Keep in mind, losses for the Canes have been few and far between this season and, prior to losing in the ACC tourney to Duke, the Hurricanes 4 losses in the 12-4 stretch leading into that game were by an average margin of just 2 points! Given that fact, though I expect the upset here, we'll grab the couple points just in case! Top Play MIAMI +2 |
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03-19-23 | Raptors v. Bucks -8 | Top | 111-118 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
NBA Sunday Milwaukee Bucks -8 vs Toronto Raptors @ 8:10 ET - Bucks are off a loss. Raptors have won 3 straight but all those games were at home for Toronto. The Raptors have not traveled well at all this season. Milwaukee has been fantastic off a loss for months now. That said, this is the ideal spot to the lay the points with a home team poised to win this by at least a dozen points. In their recent loss to the Pacers, the Bucks saw Indiana come back from double digit 3rd quarter deficit. But it was all because the Pacers shot lights out from 3 point land. It was a crazy performance as Indiana simply would not miss from outside. For the game, the Pacers outscored the Bucks by 33 points from 3-point land. As you would guess, that was the difference in the game. But, after one like that, you know Milwaukee is going to be hungry to bounce back here. The Bucks are 7-1 last 8 times when off a loss. 16 of Bucks last 21 wins by at least 8 points. The home team has been the winner in 12 of last 14 Raptors games. Toronto's last 5 losses have featured 4 by at least 8 points. Given the situation and the Raptors road struggles, I sense a bounce back blowout from a well-rested Bucks team as they have had since Thursday night to stew about the loss and get fired up for this game. MILWAUKEE -8 |
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03-19-23 | Canucks v. Ducks OVER 6.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -125 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
NHL Sunday OVER 6.5 in Anaheim Ducks vs Vancouver Canucks @ 8:07 ET - The Canucks in a B2B spot so that means Demko unlikely to draw a 2nd straight start. When anyone other than Demko has been in goal for Vancouver, they have generally struggled. However, the Canucks are scoring well and are taking on a Ducks team giving up piles of goals. So this one sets up well to be a high-scoring game. Vancouver has won 7 of 9 games and scored about 4 goals per game in those 7 victories. 12 of last 14 Canucks games without Demko guarding the cage have totaled at least 7 goals and this one should too. The Ducks last 3 games all have totaled at least 9 goals. Most recent meeting totaled 5 goals between these teams but this followed a game totaling 13 the first time they met this season. Look for a crazy high-scoring battle here given the situation for a surging Vancouver team here. OVER 6.5 in Anaheim |
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03-19-23 | Devils v. Lightning OVER 6.5 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
NHL Sunday OVER 6.5 in Tampa Bay Lightning vs New Jersey Devils @ 7:05 ET - B2B spot for both club and, though they both saved their top goalies for this match-up, neither goalie has been overly great of late. Vasilevskiy has allowed at least 3 goals in 6 of last 8 starts and has allowed an average of nearly 4 goals in last 6 home starts! The Lightning enter this game having scored an average of 4 goals per game last 3 games but Devils should get their fair share of goals here too. New Jersey has scored an average of 4 goals per game last 7 road games. Vanecek likely to start here but he has allowed 4 or more goals in 6 of last 7 starts. In fact, other than one rare strong shutout performance, he has allowed an average of 4 goals last 6 starts. More of the same expected here and the Bolts off a 5-3 win yesterday. The Devils off a 4-2 loss where they gave up four 3rd period goals. New Jersey knows they should have been more aggressive to pad their lead and will be more aggressive tonight as a result. OVER 6.5 in Tampa Bay |
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03-19-23 | Kentucky v. Kansas State +3 | Top | 69-75 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
NCAA Sunday Kansas State Wildcats +3 vs Kentucky Wildcats @ 2:40 ET - I fell short with my play on Providence Friday but will come right back with a play against Kentucky again here as the situation is similar so some of this write-up may be familiar to you as well. This line has moved toward Kentucky and I understand the move. This is a contrarian play on my part. People are looking at a rock solid UK team and Kentucky is annually one of the top programs in the country. They also see a #6 seed laying a small number to a #3 seed that had the benefit of facing a #14 seed in round one. They also see that Kentucky dominated the boards against Providence. However, that will not happen against this Kansas State team but yet people also see a K-St team that entered this tourney losers of 2 straight and also 6 of last 7 road games. So what do I see? I see odds makers that are sharp! This Kansas State team is a #3 seed with good reason and is the real deal. The Big 12 is a tough conference. Keep in mind too that Kentucky had lost 2 of 3 entering the tournament and both losses were to Vanderbilt. The Commodores are a solid team for sure but they are not in the Big Dance for a reason. Payback time for us here after losing with the Friars Friday when we went against Kentucky. I feel this game has an excellent shot to be an outright upset here but we'll grab the points just in case. KANSAS STATE +3 |
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03-19-23 | Rapid Bucuresti v. CFR Cluj OVER 2 | Top | 2-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 53 m | Show |
Romania Liga 1 Sunday OVER 2 in CFR Cluj vs Rapid @ 1 ET - Not only have 5 straight CFR Cluj matches in league action totaled at least 3 goals these matches have averaged 4.4 goals apiece. Getting a total of 2 goals here is a great value! CFR Cluj has scored an average of 2 goals in last 14 matches as a host in league action. As for Rapid, 17 of last 20 matches have totaled at least 2 goals. Those 17 matches averaged 3 goals per match and this one should get to that number too! OVER 2 in CFR Cluj |
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03-19-23 | Fulham v. Manchester United -1 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
English FA Cup Sunday Manchester United -1 -145 vs Fulham @ 12:30 ET - I like the ability to get Manchester United at -1 goal here. They should dominate this one in the quarterfinals. They have gone 4-0 with one draw in their last 5 meetings with Fulham and they won those 4 matches by a an average score of 3-1 which is the type of match I am expecting here. Looking at EPL results for guidance here, note that Manchester United has lost just once in 13 home matches this season and has outscored the opposition 24 to 8. As for Fulham, they have 6 road losses in their 13 EPL matches away from home and this is, of course, a tough match-up. Overall, in all competitions, Man U has allowed a TOTAL of only ONE goal in last THREE matches while Fulham has allowed THREE goals in EACH of last TWO matches! Look for a home blowout here. MANCHESTER UNITED -1 -145 |
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03-19-23 | Crystal Palace v. Arsenal OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 37 m | Show |
EPL Sunday OVER 2.5 in Arsenal vs Crystal Palace @ 10 AM ET - Look for Crystal Palace to get a jolt with the firing of their manager Friday. However, Arsenal will still prove to be too much. The point is though that I do expect Palace to finally get something going offensively after their manager and 3 other coaches had their duties with the club terminated on Friday. Crystal Palace will give a better effort here and Arsenal does have some defensive injuries so don't be surprised if Palace gets a goals here. However, Arsenal is a huge favorite here for a reason and I am expecting at least a 2-1 final if not 3-1 or even 3-0 or 4-1 works fine for our purposes here as we just need 3 goals to be a winner! Arsenal off a frustrating 1-1 result against Sporting Lisbon in Europe League action in which they lost on penalty kicks. Arsenal entered that match having averaged 3 goals scored per match in their 6 matches across all competitions preceding that one. With that said, look for a huge response from the hosts here and they should be relentless on the attack throughout as they make up for that disappointment in the Europa League. OVER 2.5 in Arsenal |
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03-18-23 | Northwestern +7.5 v. UCLA | Top | 63-68 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
NCAA Saturday Northwestern Wildcats +7.5 @ UCLA Bruins @ 8:40 ET - I often like to refer to the saying that the odds makers are the sharpest people in the room. The point is that, as we all know, the numbers they put out are so often spot on. That said, the low total on this game is telling you that this game is very likely to be grinder. Both these teams are solid defensively. That said, I love having sizable points in a low-scoring grinder and here we can get 7.5 with a Wildcats team that has been playing very solid basketball for a long time. Northwestern just beat a solid Boise State team while higher-seeded UCLA had a much easier draw in the first round. Of course they earned it but I feel that could come back to bite the Bruins here. This Wildcats team is so strong and feisty and so battle-tested. I was a little down on the Pac-12 this season and think the Big Ten was much deeper. That is not to say the Bruins are not the class of the Pac-12 or that they are not very strong because they absolutely are. But, the point is, they did not face the depth of quality opponents that the Wildcats had to deal with on a regular basis throughout the conference portion of the campaign. Note too that Northwestern had a 1-point loss to Auburn in non-conference action and of the only 4 losses they have had since early February, the Wildcats had 2 losses in OT and another loss by just 4 points. This Cats team is tough to blowout and I expect this game to go to the wire so we have excellent value here with the points. NORTHWESTERN +7.5 |
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03-18-23 | Penn State +5.5 v. Texas | Top | 66-71 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
NCAA Saturday Penn State Nittany Lions +5.5 vs Texas Longhorns @ 7:45 ET - Texas is playing great and deserves all the accolades they are getting for sure. I have been riding with the Longhorns quite often this season. However, this is a much tougher match-up for them. They go from facing a #15 seed in Colgate to facing a tough Big Ten team that just knocked off a solid SEC team in impressive fashion. Penn State did not just beat the Aggies Thursday, they dominated in that game from mid-first period on. They took the lead at that point, widened it by half-time, and then no matter how hard Texas A & M tried to battle back the Nittany Lions just kept on answering. Yes, Andrew Funk shot lights out in that game but keep in mind it was at Wells Fargo Arena in Des Moines and this game is too. That means it is unlikely he completely cools off here. Plus even if he just shoots a more normal shooting percentage in that game it still would have led to a PSU win as they won that game by 17. That said, I also certainly like having the 5.5 points on our side in this one. The Lions last 4 losses are by an average margin of just 4.8 points and this is a team that has won 9 of last 11 games too. All the pressure on Texas here and I feel it catches up with them in this one. PENN STATE +5.5 |
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03-18-23 | Maple Leafs v. Senators OVER 6.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
NHL Saturday OVER 6.5 in Ottawa Senators vs Toronto Maple Leafs @ 7:05 ET - The Maple Leafs are in a back to back and Samsonov started last night's 5-2 win which means it will likely be a struggling Murray between the pipes tonight. He has allowed 4 goals in 5 straight starts. However, the good news for him is he should get plenty of goal support here. That's because the Senators have been having goalie issues of their own. Ottawa has lost 5 of 6 games and allowed 5 goals per game during this stretch. However, the Senators have been scoring well and though Murray would like to have a strong start against his former club here, I just do not see that happening in this one based on his current form. Also, the Sens have scored an average of 4 goals per game last 11 games. This one truly has a shot for each club to get to 4 goals but certainly at least 3 is doable given all the above and, of course, a 3-3 game means nothing less than a 4-3 final. OVER 6.5 in Ottawa |
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03-18-23 | Hurricanes v. Flyers OVER 6 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
NHL Saturday OVER 6 in Philadelphia Flyers vs Carolina Hurricanes @ 5:07 ET - Flyers off a 5-2 win but had allowed 5 or more goals in 3 of 4 games before that. Also, Philly used top goalie Hart in goal last night so he won't go tonight. The Hurricanes are also in a B2B spot and allowed 5 goals in last night's loss and have now lost 3 of 4 games and allowed an average of 4 goals per game. The Canes should bounce back and score well here. They are priced as a heavy money line favorite on the road for a reason. But they are likely to struggle to shut down Flyers on home ice too. Philly off that 5-2 home win and we get value because the last meeting between these teams was a 1-0 final. Note the prior two this season averaged 9 goals and each totaled at least 7 goals and I feel strongly that this one will too! OVER 6 in Philadelphia |
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03-18-23 | Burnley v. Manchester City OVER 3 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
English FA Cup, Quarterfinals Saturday OVER 3 in Manchester City vs Burnley @ 1:45 ET - Burnley plays much more of a free-flowing attacking style under Vincent Kompany compared to they defensive style they had under Sean Dyche. This should lead to plenty of goals here no matter who sits and who plays for Manchester City here. Note that City has scored 2.8 goals per match in winning each of last 5 meetings with Burnley. Also, Manchester City enters this match off a huge 7-0 win versus RB Leipzig and they continue piling up goals at home. Burnley is having a huge season and scoring an average of 2 goals per match in their English League Championship campaign. City is scoring an average of 3.3 goals in English Premier League matches when they are at home. OVER 3 in Manchester City |
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03-18-23 | Leicester v. Brentford OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 45 m | Show |
EPL Saturday OVER 2.5 in Brentford vs Leicester @ 11 AM ET - We should see plenty of scoring here as the last 4 meetings between these clubs have all totaled at least 3 goals and have averaged 3.5 goals apiece. Also, on the season in EPL action, Leicester's average score in road matches is averaging 4 goals! Brentford's average score in home matches is a 2-1 aggregate score totaling 3 goals! That said, looking for at least 3, if not 4, goals in this one! Take advantage of the rather low total here as we got solid line value here. OVER 2.5 in Brentford |
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03-18-23 | Tottenham Hotspur v. Southampton OVER 2.5 | Top | 3-3 | Win | 105 | 4 h 40 m | Show |
EPL Saturday OVER 2.5 in Southampton vs Tottenham @ 11 AM ET - I know recent trending from these clubs might scare you with this over but note that Southampton has been aggressive on the attack but just has not been getting the results. On their home pitch, they could surprise here. I also like the fact that Tottenham finally got going on the attack in a 3-1 victory in most recent EPL match. It had been a long-time coming and I look for the Hotspur to build off that as they now face the club in the basement of the league table. Though Southampton is having a rough season, there have been some signs they are about to turn it around...at least in terms of creating goal-scoring chances. That said, I like the fact that 4 of the last 5 meetings between these clubs have totaled at least 3 goals as well! Note that the 5 matches averaged 4.4 goals and I look for yet another high-scoring battle between these clubs here. OVER 2.5 in Southampton |
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03-17-23 | Kent State +4.5 v. Indiana | Top | 60-71 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
NCAA Tourney TOP PLAY Friday Kent State Golden Flashes +4.5 vs Indiana Hoosiers @ 9:55 ET - The Hoosiers have a big-time star in Trayce Jackson-Davis. He had another huge game in the Big Ten Tourney against Penn State. That is the good news. The bad news is that the Hoosiers still lost the game as the Nittany Lions prevailed. As for Kent State, they are not adverse to playing with the big boys so to speak. Yes, the Golden Flashes are a MAC team but they faced both Houston and Gonzaga in non-conference action this season. Kent State put a scare into both the Cougars and the Bulldogs before falling just short in each game by an average margin of only points. That said, Indiana is a rock solid team but they are not quite on the level of Gonzaga and Houston as those teams have only lost a combined 8 games this season. As for the Hoosiers, they started this season 7-0 and have since gone 15-11. Also, if you look at Indiana's last 9 games entering this tournament, they have only 2 wins by more than 3 points! There is great value here with the Golden Flashes getting 4.5 points in this one. Kent only lost 3 non-conference match-ups this season and the 3 teams have a combined record of 90-12! These guys can play with anyone and will not be intimidated here and have veteran leadership with 3 seniors leading the way. TOP PLAY Kent State +4.5 |
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03-17-23 | Warriors v. Hawks -4 | Top | 119-127 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
NBA Friday Atlanta Hawks -4 vs Golden State Warriors @ 7:40 ET - The Warriors have been horrible on the road this season. The Hawks are solid at home. Golden State will be without the suspended Draymond Green for this one. Additionally, GS could be without Steph Curry due to a left thumb injury. Even if he plays, Curry just scored 50 points at LA against the Clippers and the Warriors still lost the game by 8 points. That is ridiculous but it shows you just how mediocre this GS team is these days. Atlanta takes advantage. The Hawks are off B2B losses but are 6-0 SU the last 6 times they have entered a game off B2B losses. Also, 4 of the last 5 of those wins in that situation came by a margin of at least 5 points. Considering all the Warriors issues right now, this one should too. ATLANTA -4 |
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03-17-23 | Providence +4.5 v. Kentucky | Top | 53-61 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
NCAA Tourney Friday Providence Friars +4.5 vs Kentucky Wildcats @ 7:10 ET - This line has moved toward Kentucky and I understand the move. This is a contrarian play on my part. People are looking at a rock solid Wildcats team and UK is annually one of the top programs in the country. They also see a #6 seed laying a small number to a #11 seed. They also see a Providence team that enters this tourney losers of 3 straight. So what do I see? I see odds makers that are sharp! This Friars team is the real deal. The Big East is a tough conference. Keep in mind too that Kentucky has lost 2 of 3 and both losses were to Vanderbilt. The Commodores are a solid team for sure but they are not in the Big Dance for a reason. I also like the fact here that Bryce Hopkins is now a star player for Providence after not getting much playing time in Kentucky. Watch him show up big here against his former club as he has been huge the for Friars and you know he is relishing this opportunity. Payback time for him here. Hopkins and the Friars have an excellent shot at the upset here but we'll grab the points just in case. PROVIDENCE +4.5 |
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03-17-23 | Blues v. Capitals OVER 6.5 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
NHL Friday OVER 6.5 in Washington Capitals vs St Louis Blues @ 7:05 ET - The Blues games just keep flying over the total. 6 of last 8 St Louis games have totaled at least 7 goals and all 8 of them totaled at least 6 goals. The 8 games averaged 8.5 goals apiece! The Capitals last 9 games averaged nearly 8 goals per game and 2 of last 3 games at home for Washington have totaled 9 goals! Considering both these clubs getting shaky goaltending and defense but also have plenty of weapons capable of finding the back of the net, this should be another high-scoring game here. Capitals have scored an average of 4 goals last 9 games. Blues have scored an average of 4 goals last 7 games. Don't be surprised if we see a 5-4 game here given the above but certainly we should get to at least a 4-3 type of affair here. OVER 6.5 in Washington |
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03-17-23 | Newcastle United v. Nottingham Forest OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 115 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
EPL Friday OVER 2.5 in Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle United @ 4 ET - Solid line value here because Newcastle is favored for a reason of course but Nottingham has scored at least 1 goal in all but one of their home matches this season. So as bad as Nottingham is in terms of scoring away from home they usually put up a strong fight at home. At the same time, Newcastle knows they need to be more aggressive and start making sure they pick up 3 points in the table rather than being stuck on draws earning just 1 point. Looking for at least a 2-1 final here. Nottingham desperate to avoid relegation and it looks like it is going to be a fierce battle in that regard which makes the full 3 points even more important. Newcastle has allowed 1.6 goals in last 5 matches. Nottingham allowing 2 goals per match on the season. OVER 2.5 in Nottingham Forest |
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03-17-23 | SV Werder Bremen v. Borussia Monchengladbach OVER 3 | Top | 2-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
German Bundesliga Friday OVER 3 in Borussia Monchengladbach vs Werder Bremen @ 3:30 ET - The last two meetings between these clubs have each totaled 6 goals! Borussia Monchengladbach is scoring an average of 2 goals per match as a host this season. Also, Werder Bremen is conceding an average of 2 goals per match on the road this season. However, Werder Bremen should also score well here as they have scored 7 goals in the last 2 meetings and have averaged scoring 2 goals in last 3 matches overall. Also, Borussia Monchengladbach has one scoreless draw last 5 matches but, in the other 4, they allowed 3.3 goals per match. OVER 3 in Borussia Monchengladbach |
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03-17-23 | Pittsburgh +5 v. Iowa State | Top | 59-41 | Win | 100 | 6 h 25 m | Show |
NCAA Friday Pittsburgh Panthers +5 vs Iowa State Cyclones @ 3:10 ET - As mentioned in my write-up on Pittsburgh in Tuesday's win over Mississippi State, the Panthers opened the season with a 1-3 mark so they had won 75% of their games (21-7 run) prior to the loss to big bad Duke in the ACC Tourney. I realize the Cyclones also played powerful Kansas in their Big 12 Tourney loss, but the point is simply that Pitt has plenty of confidence here and yet one could argue that Iowa St has become accustomed to mediocrity this season based on their current 6-11 run since their 13-2 start. We have value here with a scrappy ACC team that is going to play very hard in this one and be very difficult for Iowa State to put away. At the same time, I feel the pressure is more on Iowa State here as they advance all the way to the Sweet 16 last year so expectations are high and the pressure is on the Cyclones to avoid an early exit. Conversely, the Panthers are a team on the rise this season playing without fear or pressure after last season's ugly 11-21 disaster. PITTSBURGH +5 |
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03-16-23 | Penn State +2.5 v. Texas A&M | Top | 76-59 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
NCAA Tourney Thursday Penn State Nittany Lions +2.5 or +3 vs Texas A & M Aggies @ 9:55 ET - This is a contrarian play but you can just sense what is about to happen if you are a believer in the contrarian theory like I am. The thing is the Aggies were bitter with the committee last season and then perhaps that resulted in them being under-seeded here this season. But how about what that has set up for them? A win here and they likely would be facing Texas next unless Colgate pulls off a monumental upset. So the point is that it is almost unavoidable that Texas A & M already has one eye on facing big-time in-state rival Longhorns. Yes they do not meet often like they did before the Aggies bolted to the SEC but it is still a big rivalry in Texas. That said, don't be surprised if there is a slight distraction here for the Aggies. That said, all it takes is a little distraction and a solid Big Ten team like Penn State can swoop in and take advantage. The Aggies just got hammered by Alabama by nearly 20 points in the SEC Championship Game while the Nittany Lions lost by only 2 points to the Nittany Lions. Each of last 5 losses by PSU were by only a single digit margin. This line simply looks funny to me and I feel we are getting excellent situation to back the Lions for the mild upset because the odds makers are telling us something here with this very low line on the Aggies in this one. PENN STATE +2.5 or +3 |
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03-16-23 | Stars v. Oilers OVER 6.5 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -128 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
NHL Thursday OVER 6.5 in Edmonton Oilers vs Dallas Stars @ 9:05 ET - The Oilers 20 of last 27 games have totaled at least 7 goals. Edmonton has scored an average of 4.6 goals per game last 11 on home ice. The Oilers do struggle to stop teams more often than not and have allowed 4 goals per game last 9 games. Edmonton matched up with Dallas should mean plenty of goals as the Stars have had 7 straight games total at least 7 goals! Dallas is off a 5-2 loss but the Stars had scored an average of 4.8 goals per game in their 8 games before that one. Yes, the Oilers have some injury issues here but just can not see anything other than a high-scoring battle happening in Alberta for this Western Conference battle. OVER 6.5 in Edmonton |
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03-16-23 | Colgate v. Texas -13 | Top | 61-81 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
NCAA Thursday Texas Longhorns -13 vs Colgate Raiders @ 7:25 ET - I know that Colgate has strong shooters but Texas is so strong defensively and just beat Kansas by 20 points to capture the Big 12 title. The Raiders lost by just 7 in the Big Dance last year but faced a Wisconsin team that certainly was built much differently than this Longhorns team is. Also, the prior year Colgate lost by 17 to Arkansas in the NCAA Tourney. Also, I like the fact that this line has ticked down a little bit. Keep in mind, UT has allowed only 55.5 points last 4 games. Colgate has won 9 straight games but the level of competition different of course plus, in the last 7 victories, the Raiders have allowed an average of 71 ppg! That is much different than the Horns recent average and then when you factor in the difference in level of competition you can see why I am expecting this one to be a blowout in the 20-point range. Fade the line move here. TEXAS -13 |
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03-16-23 | Canadiens v. Panthers OVER 6.5 | Top | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
NHL Thursday OVER 6.5 in Florida Panthers vs Montreal Canadiens @ 7:05 ET - Florida won the first two games in high-scoring fashion by scores of 7 to 2 and 6 to 2. Look for another wild one here as Montreal enters this game with 5 of last 6 games having totaled at least 7 goals. The Canadiens are off a 6-4 win after an 8-4 loss. The Panthers had been on a surprising mini-streak of lower-scoring games but things seem to be quickly returning to normal now as Florida is off B2B high-scoring games. 12 of last 17 Panthers home games have totaled at least 7 goals and this one should too. OVER 6.5 in Florida |