Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12-05-20 | Colorado v. Arizona OVER 57 | Top | 24-13 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #381 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Arizona Wildcats vs Colorado Buffaloes @ 7 ET - Well aware of the injury situation with Grant Gunnell for the Wildcats and the fact he is listed as a game-time decision. I feel strongly that he would have been shutdown for the season already if the injury was more serious and I expect him to play in this one. Even if he does not, look for freshman QB Will Plummer to be much better this week than he was last week. Now he will have had a full week of practice with the first team offense and be prepared to make a start and this game is at home which is a big plus for Arizona. The Wildcats scored 30 points on 444 yards of offense in their only home game this season. Colorado is enjoying an undefeated start to the season but off a low-scoring win over a San Diego State that is having major issues on offense. That said, look for the Buffaloes defense to return to their typical performance levels this week and that is good news for over players. Colorado allowed an average of 37 points per game in their first two games as each game went over the total. By the way, Arizona allowed an average of 39 points per game in its first two games this season. Don't look for much defense in this one! In fact, when these teams meet there is almost always a ton of offense. The over is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings between these teams. This is precisely the type of situation I like to look for in terms of a big play as both of these teams are off low-scoring games but this followed 2 very high-scoring games for each team to begin the season. The Buffaloes first two games totaled an average of 78.5 points per game and the Wildcats first two games totaled an average of 67.5 points per game. Look for that type of high-scoring action to resume in a series that has been marked by its high-scoring results. 10* OVER the total in Arizona |
|||||||
12-05-20 | Indiana v. Wisconsin -13 | Top | 14-6 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #402 Saturday 10* Top Play Wisconsin Badgers (-) vs Indiana Hoosiers @ 3:30 ET - The Hoosiers are ranked higher than the Badgers and are also an undefeated 6-0 ATS on the season and yet they are nearly 2 TD underdogs in this match-up! See anything funny about that? Exactly! Don't fall for the attractiveness of what markets will say is a phony line here. The fact is that the Hoosiers would be in trouble here even if they had QB Michael Penix here but he is now out for the season. Indiana is facing a Wisconsin defense that has allowed only 11.7 points per game this season. Now the Hoosiers face them with a lot of question marks at the QB position too as they now have an unproven signal-caller stepping in. The Badgers are still angry off their loss a few weeks ago against Northwestern and haven't played since. Wisconsin is rested and ready to respond and lets not forget that their only two games besides the loss to the Wildcats were a pair of wins by a combined score of 94-18. The Hoosiers lost their most recent road game and that was the only other time they have been a road dog this season. Though Indiana only lost the game by 7 at Ohio State, they actually were getting blasted in that game and down huge at the half. The Hoosiers rallied in the 2nd half as the Buckeyes took their foot off the gas courtesy of a big lead and then Penix took over with big plays for the offense. Again, Penix is now out for the year and also the Badgers are angry and won't let up here and have a fantastic defense and they are at home. Wisconsin will win the battles in the trenches on both sides of the ball and when you dominate the line of scrimmage plus have the better QB situation (Mertz has been great and Coan is available now too if needed) you generally dominate the game! Look for that to be the case here and my projections have the Badgers winning this one by a margin of at least 3 touchdowns. Lay the big points as the home team improves to 11-0 SU L11 and 6-0 ATS L6 in meetings with Indiana. 10* WISCONSIN |
|||||||
12-05-20 | Leeds United v. Chelsea OVER 3.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 115 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach EPL Rotation #200077 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Chelsea vs Leeds United @ 3 ET - Chelsea ranks among the top scoring teams in the Premier League this season with 2.2 goals per match on average. Leeds United has scored more on enemy pitch than in their home fixtures this season as they are averaging a solid 1.8 goals per match as travelers this season. This match is at Chelsea and should be a very entertaining one with plenty of goals. For this total to move past the even number of 3 and move up to as high as a 3.5 you know where the sharp money is in this one and that is where we are putting our sharp money as well! 10* OVER the total in Chelsea |
|||||||
12-04-20 | Oregon v. Seton Hall +3.5 | Top | 83-70 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
TV Slaughter - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Rotation #824 Friday 10* Seton Hall Pirates (+) vs Oregon Ducks @ 9 PM ET @ CHI Health Center Omaha in Nebraska - The Pirates are just 1-2 SU on the season but their first loss came by just a single point to a solid Louisville team. Now, off a loss by double digits to Rhode Island - a respectable Atlantic 10 team in their own right - I expect a huge response from Seton Hall here. Keep in mind, the Pirates game prior to that was a big win by a 22 point margin over a well-coached Iona team as Rick Pitino is one of the, if not the, best in the business in terms of college hoops coaches. I feel Seton Hall has an edge over the Ducks here because the Pirates have 3 games under their belt already while Oregon has played only 1 game. For the Ducks that was a loss to a Missouri team likely to finish near the bottom of the SEC. Oregon came into this season highly regarded but the fact that Will Richardson is out for 6 to 8 weeks is a big loss for their backcourt. They opened up as nearly a pick'em in this game and, as usual, the betting markets 'took the bait' and this line has risen to as high as a 3.5 as of early Friday morning. I'll gladly grab the value with the underdog Pirates in this one. 10* SETON HALL |
|||||||
12-04-20 | UL-Lafayette +3 v. Appalachian State | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #327 Friday 10* Top Play UL-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (-) @ Appalachian State Mountaineers @ 8:30 ET - The Mountaineers have won 8 straight meetings with UL-Lafayette. Also, the Ragin' Cajuns have locked up the Sun Belt West Division. Those factors would lead one to believe that there is no way that Appalachian State, at home especially, is only a 2.5 point favorite in this one. My comment to that...exactly! In typical contrarian fashion I am taking the underdog in this one. Yes ULL has lost 8 straight to App State but that is actually a key to their motivation here. Even though they have locked up the SBC West, the Ragin' Cajuns are highly motivated to end their 8-game losing streak to the Mountaineers. The fact that ULL has allowed an average of only 330 yards per game their last 4 games is a good sign. Teams that control the defensive stats are a good team to bet on (particularly when a dog) and the Mountaineers dominated Troy in their most recent game but allowed 34 points in a loss in their game just prior to that one. On the season, the Ragin' Cajuns have played the tougher schedule. Also, ULL lost to Appalachian State twice last season including the SBC Championship Game and that was despite having 31 first downs compared to just 20 first downs for the Mountaineers in that game. Finally, on Friday night in Boone, NC the Ragin' Cajuns get their shot at revenge. Look for them to make the most of it. 10* UL LAFAYETTE |
|||||||
12-03-20 | Connecticut v. USC +1.5 | Top | 61-58 | Loss | -106 | 20 h 18 m | Show |
ESPN Slaughter - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Rotation #752 Thursday 10* Top Play USC Trojans (+) vs Connecticut Huskies @ 7 ET @ Mohegan Sun Arena @ Uncasville, CT - The location of this game would seem to favor Connecticut of course. However, USC is the play here. Not only do the Huskies have a couple guys banged up, I also feel we have some value here in terms of who these teams have played so far. The Huskies haven't really been tested yet as they faced overmatched foes in Central Connecticut State and Hartford. Conversely, USC faced a tough BYU team in its most recent game. In fact, the Trojans were an underdog in that game and yet they dominated and won the game by 26 points. Whenever I see a line like this (UConn playing what is, in essence a home game and yet hardly favored) it grabs my attention. Upon closer inspection I see the contrarian value here given the situation. Having already been tested by Brigham Young, the Trojans will be better prepared to handle a challenging game. Also, the way Southern Cal played against the Cougars, they showed they came to Uncasville, CT to compete at the highest level and I expect that to lead to another convincing win in this one. 10* USC Trojans |
|||||||
12-03-20 | Louisiana Tech v. North Texas OVER 66 | Top | 42-31 | Win | 100 | 20 h 23 m | Show |
Thursday Thrasher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #323 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in North Texas Mean Green vs Louisiana Tech Bulldogs @ 6 ET - I am well aware that the Mean Green scored just 17 points in last week's loss but they did have over 400 yards in that game. Also, teams make mistakes in terms of defensive assignments after a long layoff and the Bulldogs enter this game having not played since Halloween! Look for the rust to lead to problems containing the North Texas offense in this one. Also, the Mean Green are out for revenge after getting thrashed 52-17 last season by Louisiana Tech. Though I do expect North Texas to have a huge game on offense I expect that if they prevail it will be on the strength of that O because I do not trust their D here. The Mean Green have allowed less than 31 points in a game just once in 7 games this season. In the other games they have allowed an average of 45 points per game and that included a game against Houston Baptist (an FCS school). Similarly, the Bulldogs have allowed less than 27 points in only one of their games. In the other 6 games they allowed an average of 34.8 points per game. This game is a strange set up for Louisiana Tech and I could easily see them playing it with an aggressive "whatever happens" style which means that we could see plenty of points in this one. Based on the averages, this one should get into the 70s at least. Look for a wild one at Denton, TX on Thursday. 10* OVER the total in North Texas |
|||||||
12-02-20 | Ravens +10.5 v. Steelers | Top | 14-19 | Win | 100 | 29 h 11 m | Show |
*NOTE: I am aware that Lamar Jackson (among others) is now out for this game and Robert Griffin is likely getting the start at QB for the Ravens in this one. I am also aware that this game has been moved yet AGAIN - this time to WEDNESDAY. I still like this play plenty as it is a contrarian play offering huge value. Don't be surprised when the rest of the Baltimore team steps up in this huge rivalry (and revenge) game. Here is the original write-up:* AFC North Game of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #125 Thursday 10* Top Play Baltimore Ravens (+) @ Pittsburgh Steelers @ 8:20 ET - Tremendous line value here because the Steelers are undefeated on the season, come into this game on a 7-1 ATS run while the Ravens are on a 1-4 ATS run and off B2B SU losses. Plus Pittsburgh won the first meeting this season and that was at Baltimore. As a result of all those factors, a line that was as low as a -2.5 is now up as high as a -5.5 on the Steelers and I love the value being offered to the road dog in this one. The Ravens lost in a rain storm at New England two weeks ago and then they were looking ahead to this rematch game when they lost in OT versus Tennessee last week. That said, Baltimore is very under-valued right now. Keep in mind, they actually outgained the Steelers by over 200 yards (including a positive edge of 217 on the ground!) when they faced them of the first of this month. The Ravens were simply done in by turnovers in that game and that is what the betting markets seem to be overlooking here. This is a very strong Baltimore team and they are in a preferred role here as well! Why is that? Well, the Ravens have only lost the money ONCE the last DOZEN times they have been a road dog! I know the Steelers are having a great season. Everyone knows that. But their highly unlikely to go 16-0 and certainly this looks like a great spot for an upset win. Either way, grabbing the points should absolutely prove to be the ATS winner. 10* BALTIMORE |
|||||||
12-01-20 | Kentucky +5 v. Kansas | Top | 62-65 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
ESPN Slaughter - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Rotation #627 Tuesday 10* Top Play Kentucky Wildcats (+) vs Kansas Jayhawks @ 9:30 ET @ United Center in Chicago, IL - Each team has an early season loss but the Jayhawks lost to Gonzaga and Kansas was an underdog in that big match-up. Converesely, the Wildcats lost to Richmond and they were favored by a half dozen points in that game. As a result, there is some anti-Kentucky sentiment impacting this line as it has risen from near a 3 to as high as a 5 as of gameday morning and I like the value with the underdog in this one as I fade the line move. Kentucky took the last meeting between these teams in January of 2019 and the Wildcats did it with physicality. The Cats shot poorly from three point land but won the game because they got to the free throw line more than the Jayhawks plus they dominated the glass. Don't be surprised if we see a similar approach here and I'll grab the aggressive (and highly talented) underdog in this one. There is a reason this line was priced so low despite Kansas having a much higher ranking. I would not be surprised to see an outright upset here and am happy to grab all the points I can get with this one. 10* KENTUCKY |
|||||||
11-30-20 | Seahawks v. Eagles +6.5 | Top | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #276 Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (+) vs Seattle Seahawks @ 8:15 ET - Too much value with the home dog to pass up on here. Keep in mind the Eagles are 2-1-1 SU in their last 4 game at home and the only loss came by just two points. The Seahawks are 0-3 SU in their last 3 road games and allowed 104 points in those 3 games. Seattle certainly has a talented offense but the Eagles have allowed a respectable 20.8 points per game in their last 4 home games. Also, Seattle's defense is certainly not a strength and the Eagles offense may surprise some people here. Philly has won only 3 of it's last 8 games but those other 5 games were decided by an average margin of 5.2 points per game. This line is up to nearly a full TD on Seattle and it is simply too much with them on the road for this one. Philadelphia lost in the regular season and in the playoffs last season to the Seahawks and each defeat came by exactly the same score: 17-9. Payback time here. There were very few outright upsets in Sunday's NFL but you know there are shockers nearly every week in NFL and this one has the makings of one. Double revenge spot for the Eagles and note that the Seahawks are off a big divisional revenge win over Arizona. Situational spot favors the home dog. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
|||||||
11-30-20 | Aston Villa v. West Ham United OVER 2.75 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 50 | 5 h 41 m | Show |
Total Slaughter - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach EPL Rotation #200061 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in West Ham United vs Aston Villa @ 3 ET - This play has a lot to do with sharp betting action. I am seeing books go to a 3 on this total and that means anything below a 3 is certainly offering solid line value. Keep in mind, Aston Villa has been a great road club this season and they have averaged 2.3 goals on enemy pitch so far in this campaign. West Ham United should perform well on their home pitch and they have averaged 1.7 goals per match as a host this season. Last season West Ham also averaged a similar amount of goals on their home pitch. Last campaign, Aston Villa allowed an average of 2 goals per match on enemy pitch. I just can't see this particular match-up ending with anything less than 3 goals. Look for at least a 2-1 final in this one. 10* OVER the total in West Ham United |
|||||||
11-29-20 | Bears +10 v. Packers | Top | 25-41 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #273 Sunday 10* Chicago Bears (+) @ Green Bay Packers @ 8:20 ET - This is just too many points. The Bears could actually get a boost with Mitchell Trubisky returning at QB. The fact is that Nick Foles had not been playing that well. Also, the last 4 meetings between these teams have all been decided by 8 or less points. The Bears have lost 4 straight games but each of the last 3 defeats have been by 7 or less points. The Packers are off a loss at Indianapolis Sunday in overtime while Chicago has the benefit of entering this game off a bye week. The Packers have played 10 games this season and only 4 of those have resulted in a win by a double digit margin. The Bears are still a proud team and they have had extra time to sort some things out courtesy of the bye week. Chicago actually piled up a lot of passing yardage in their two match-ups with Green Bay last season and Trubisky was the QB for both of those. Don't be surprised if they do some damage through the air in this one. They absolutely need a spark and Trubisky could provide it. The Packers are on a 2-4 ATS run and continue to be over-valued in my opinion. The defenses in this match-up are equal or even slightly favor in of the Bears. Of course Green Bay holds the edge on offense but I have a feeling Chicago is going to look much different this week on offense and will do enough damage here to stay inside this inflated number. This is a rivalry game and we're getting plenty of points when you consider that factor as well. This is a huge game for the Bears to try and close the gap on the division lead that Green Bay has. Don't be surprised when they put up a major fight in this one and stay close throughout this game as they seek the big upset win to stay in the division race. 10* CHICAGO |
|||||||
11-29-20 | Washington v. Baylor OVER 139 | Top | 52-86 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Rotation #803 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baylor Bears vs Washington Huskies @ T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV @ 6 ET - The Bears opened their season with a 112-82 win against UL Lafayette yesterday. As for the Huskies, this will be their first game of the season but they wrapped up last season by averaging 78 points per game their last 5 games. The Bears, including yesterday's result, have average 78.6 points per game their last 5 games (includes last 4 games of last season for Baylor). Look for plenty of offense in this one as the Bears showed yesterday that they are happy to 'run and gun' and Washington is looking at this as almost a "warm up" game to get ready for the season. They face Utah this coming week. Baylor wants revenge here as they blew a 7 point halftime lead and lost to the Huskies last season. That said, the Bears will not hesitate in keeping their foot on the gas throughout this contest as they are in revenge mode and are favored by a double digit margin here for good reason. Baylor is highly ranked for a reason and ready to put on a scoring display here but the Huskies also have a talented backcourt and are quite solid in terms of scoring depth and I look for them to surprise by hanging around in this one and putting up plenty of points. Washington may fade late as the Bears are simply 'that good'. That is why I am avoiding the side here but the total looks like a solid bet in expectation of a very high-scoring game. 10* OVER the total in Baylor |
|||||||
11-29-20 | Saints v. Broncos OVER 35.5 | Top | 31-3 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #267 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Denver Broncos vs New Orleans Saints @ 4:05 ET - As long-time followers know I am a contrarian. That means when situations like this come up you know I'll be taking a look and, if I like the value going against the move, I am all over it. That is most definitely the case here. This total opened up around 45.5 and now is as low as 35.5 points. It is because the Broncos QB situation is a complete mess as all the QBs on their roster are out due to Covid and related contact tracing. That said, they have only a pair of options at QB as Hinton and Freeman would be the guys. Hinton started out as a QB at Wake Forest before converting to RB. Freeman would be more of a wildcat QB. Either way, I still love the value with this total because Denver most definitely will have some trick plays dialed up here and they catch the Saints defense off a dominating divisional win. On the road and after crushing the rival Falcons, don't be surprised if the New Orleans defense is a little flat here. Also, the weather is going to be very nice in Denver with light winds and clear skies and temperatures possibly reaching into the 40s. Keep in mind, long field goals have a better chance in the thin air of Denver when the weather is like this. I just feel this total is way too low. I know the Broncos defense had a strong game last week but Taysom Hill and the Saints offense are a much better combo than the over-rated Dolphins team that Denver just faced. Also, prior to holding Miami to just 13 points, the Broncos allowed at least 26 points in 7 of last 8 games including an average of 36 points in their last 4 games. Keep in mind that is roughly what the total is on this game for BOTH teams combined and I certainly do expect the Broncos to score some points. They will run some trick plays to keep the defense off balance and, again, you don't have to move the ball a whole lot to get into field goal range in Denver! Broncos kicker Brandon McManus is having a fantastic season as he has made 20 of 21 field goals this season including 14 of 15 from 40+ yards (6 of 7 from 50+ yards). The Broncos ran for nearly 200 yards last week and will find a way to move the ball some and get some points in this game but the Saints offense should light them up too. After all, why do you think New Orleans is favored by 15 points here? Yes that has to do with Broncos problems at QB for this one but also this Saints team can put up some points even without Drew Brees under center. Hill was 18 of 23 for 233 yards passing last week plus ran for 2 touchdowns. Considering all the factors as noted above, there is simply phenomenal line value here with this low total. Flat spot for the Saints defense in a divisional sandwich and the Broncos defense feeling a little too good about themselves after dominating Miami last week plus the Denver D has the hated division rival Chiefs on deck. Neither defense will be on top of its game here in my opinion and we have a very low total to work with in nice weather conditions. I will take it. 10* OVER the total in Denver |
|||||||
11-29-20 | Wolverhampton Wanderers v. Arsenal OVER 2 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 39 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach EPL Rotation #200053 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Arsenal vs Wolverhampton @ 2:15 ET - Enough is enough already. We saw a lot of goals early this season in the Premier League and you knew it would not last forever but now it has gone so far the other direction that you know the pendulum will swing back toward more goals soon. I look for this to be one of those games and I like the fact that we get the over at an even 2 goals in this one. Yes these two teams have both been low-scoring this season but the season is still young and we must be careful to put too much weight into that. Last season Arsenal's home matches averaged 3.2 goals per game and they scored nearly 2 goals per game on their home pitch. Wolverhampton actually was known for being a solid team on enemy pitch last season and their away matches averaged 2.4 goals. The Wanderers averaged scoring 1.3 goals on the road last season. My forecast here is a 2-1 win for Arsenal based on the above and based on the situation. In games played outside the Premier League Arsenal has scored well but they have not been getting it done in Premier League matches. This is an anomaly and will not last. Wolverhampton puts up a fight on the road in this one too so we see more scoring than most expect as both teams work hard for the full 3 points to move up in the table. Neither finds a draw an attractive result in this one. 10* OVER the total in Arsenal |
|||||||
11-28-20 | Memphis v. Navy OVER 62 | Top | 10-7 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
AAC Total of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #285 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Navy Midshipmen vs Memphis Tigers @ 7 ET - A pair of bad defenses here. Navy will be even worse than normal here as this is their first game played since Halloween! The Midshipmen are allowing 37 points per game this season and the over is 6-1 in their 7 games this season. Memphis saw their offense truly struggle in only one game this season and that was against the very tough defense of Cincinnati. Other than when they faced the Bearcats, the Tigers have scored an average of 41 points per game this season. Their defense is certainly not a strength however and they will struggle again here versus the Navy option attack. Memphis is off a dominating win over an FCS school as they thrashed Stephen F Austin. However, prior to that, they allowed an average of 40 points per game their 4 preceding games - all against FBS schools. With very nice weather expected at Annapolis, MD today, both offenses will be able to thrive in this one. Memphis likes to play fast and is averaging 80 plays per game on offense this season. The Tigers make the most of those plays too as they are averaging 530 yards per game. I expect another big game from their offense here but Navy has only truly been stopped by BYU and Air Force this season. That is because BYU is having a great season and has a solid defense and because Air Force knows plenty about the option attack. As for their other 5 games, the Midshipmen scored an average of 28.6 points per game. Look for a 42-28 type game here and, no matter how it gets there, I am expecting this game to get to at least the 70 point mark. That means we have excellent line value with this one, especially as the total has dropped to 62 heading into gameday. 10* OVER the total in Navy |
|||||||
11-28-20 | Rhode Island +1 v. South Florida | Top | 84-68 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Rotation #723 Saturday 10* Top Play Rhode Island Rams (+) vs South Florida Bulls @ 5:30 PM ET in the Air Force Reserve Basketball Hall of Fame Tip-Off Classic @ Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, CT - The location of this game certainly favors the Rams and I also love the situation here. While Rhode Island is 0-2 this season they faced Arizona State and Boston College and they lost those games by an average margin of just 5.5 points. While the Bulls won their only game so far this season, it was against Florida College and South Florida actually trailed that game at half time! The Bulls were facing a much tougher battle-tested team here as they take a major step up in class for this one. South Florida is seeing Alexis Yetna and Xavier Casteneda both try to battle through injuries. They may not be 100% here. As for Rhode Island, they have played tough in each of their first two games even though they have been without starting forward Jermaine Harris but they could get him back here. Either way, I look for them to get the big win as, off back to back losses but having played much tougher competition, the Rams respond in a big way here and take it to South Florida. The Bulls have only played 1 game and that was 3 days ago and they will be a little rusty here and are facing a tough Rams team that is hungry for a win. 10* RHODE ISLAND |
|||||||
11-28-20 | Coastal Carolina v. Texas State +17.5 | Top | 49-14 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 53 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #226 Saturday 10* Top Play Texas State Bobcats (+) vs Coastal Carolina Chanticleers @ 3 ET - I fully understand that Coastal Carolina is a ranked team, undefeated on the season, and that they need to not only win but win by big margins to move up the standings. However, this is a horrible spot for them in many ways. For one thing they are off a key win over an Appalachian State team that was undefeated in conference action plus entered the game with an overall 6-1 record on the season. Secondly, the Chanticleers have an 8-1 Liberty team on deck and the Flames have also been a ranked team this season. In the middle of these two games is a 2-9 Bobcats team. I just can't see Coastal Carolina being able to fully focus here and also this game is at Texas State. The weather is expected to be very rainy in San Marcos for this one. Nasty weather generally favors big dogs as it can complicate things for offenses. I still expect Coastal Carolina to win this game but not by a huge margin and this line is up to a 17.5 as of early gameday morning. Yes, the Bobcats defense is an issue but this is a team that can score well and that means they also have backdoor cover potential should it be needed. But I am not expecting it to be necessary as I look for them to hang in tough throughout this game. I also like the fact that Texas State has played a tougher overall schedule and, outside of the SBC, they faced some bigger schools like SMU, Boston College, and BYU. The Bobcats lost by only a single score to the Mustangs and Eagles! By comparison, Coastal Carolina's schedule has been a cakewalk. Texas State enters this game on a 4-0 ATS run. The Bobcats also are scoring an average of 34 points per game in home games this season. 10* TEXAS STATE |
|||||||
11-28-20 | Sheffield United v. West Bromwich Albion OVER 2 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -124 | 5 h 15 m | Show |
Total Slaughter - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach EPL Rotation #200041 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in West Bromich Albion vs Sheffield United @ 3 ET - A match-up of bottom dwellers in the table. It has been a tough campaign for both West Bromich and Sheffield. That said, there are two ways to look at this one. The first would be that both struggle to score goals and therefore it could be an ugly low-scoring match. However, I see it the other way. These two clubs are both desperate for a win and need to go all-out in trying to notch 3 points in the table. Not only that, these clubs both have had issues with surrendering too many goals this season. That said, I think we'll see more goal-scoring here than many would expect. Sheffield United is allowing 2.3 goals in road matches this season. West Bromich Albion have allowed 18 goals (2 goals per match) this season. No team has given up more goals thus far this season than they have. Given the above, would it really be a shock if each club got to two goals here? Not really which is also why I am going to my highest rating level on this play as the over is available at just 2 goals and I am expecting at least 3, if not 4, goals in this one. 10* OVER the total in West Bromich |
|||||||
11-27-20 | Notre Dame v. North Carolina +6.5 | Top | 31-17 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 52 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #136 Friday 10* Top Play North Carolina Tar Heels (+) vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ 3:30 ET - When this line opened up near a -3 on Notre Dame I fully expected the line might move to near a -7 and that is exactly what happened. It just looks too easy, right? An undefeated team that also has beaten Clemson this season and they are coming off a bye week and facing a 6-2 team with a questionable defense. Of course you know what happens when things look too easy, right? Exactly! I would not be surprised to see an outright upset here. The Tar Heels are off an embarrassing effort on defense versus Wake Forest in their most recent game. However, North Carolina still found a way to win thanks to their dynamic and balanced offense. I feel strongly that the UNC defense is going to be much better in this game as they bring their 'A game' in this rare opportunity to host one of the top teams in the nation. At Chapel Hill on Saturday, look for the Tar Heels to find a way in this one. North Carolina is averaging 43 points per game this season and has scored more than 40 in 4 straight games. More of the same expected here. The vaunted Notre Dame defense has allowed 35.5 points per game their last two games and will be heavily tested in this game. Don't be surprised if the Irish are handed their first loss of the season in this one. Even if not an outright upset, I expect the Tar Heels (only 2 losses by 3 points each this season) to stay inside the number here. 10* NORTH CAROLINA |
|||||||
11-27-20 | Newcastle United v. Crystal Palace OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 42 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach EPL Rotation #200025 Friday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 goals +135 in Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United @ 3 ET - Both clubs off disappointing results. They each know they must start finding the back of the net and can't sit back. That said, I know that over 2 goals is available out there but I am going for the over 2.5 goals which is available at plus money as high as +135. This is a great value. Off disappointing results and, with Newcastle United failing by trying to play a defensive-minded approach in their most recent match, look for more goals than many are expecting here. They are expected to get a big boost with the return of goal-scorer Callum Wilson in this one. Each of these clubs has seen 25 goals totaled in their 9 games this season. Of course this is an average of nearly 3 goals per contest. Crystal Palace has averaged scoring about 2 goals per match on their home pitch this season and Newcastle United has averaged scoring about a goal per contest this season. The road dog here knows they must be stronger on the attack if they hope to upset Crystal Palace here and I expect a much more entertaining contest than most are expecting as a result. Crystal Palace is favored here for a reason and they have scored an average of 3 goals per win in their last 2 victories. When these clubs meet the trend has been for low-scoring matches. But the odds makers know what they are doing and based on the opener they used for this total and how the markets have reacted, we have a contrarian sharp line value here in my opinion. 10* OVER 2.5 goals +135 in Crystal Palace |
|||||||
11-27-20 | Pepperdine +7.5 v. UCLA | Top | 98-107 | Loss | -108 | 4 h 43 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Rotation #621 Friday 10* Top Play Pepperdine Waves (+) vs UCLA Bruins @ 3 ET - The Waves get a shot against the big boys here and I expect them to make the most of it. Pepperdine comes from a smaller conference of course but they returned 4 starters from last season's team and I feel strongly that they are on their way up this season. Already the Waves looked strong with a win over UC Irvine Wednesday. The Bruins entered the season ranked but lost their season opener Wednesday. Granted they played a strong San Diego State team but it was certainly not impressive that they lost by 15 points to the Aztecs as a 3 point favorite. Johnny Juzang was expected to be a contributor for UCLA this season and he is out with a foot injury. Also, big man Jalen Hill is a starter but he is dealing with a knee injury right now and is questionable for this game. I like the fact the Waves are coming off a big win by a double digit margin to start the season and they want this game against their "big brother" whose campus is very nearby. This game played at a neutral site and the scrappy underdogs get the win here. If not an outright upset win look for them to at least stay inside the number. 10* PEPPERDINE |
|||||||
11-26-20 | Washington Football Team v. Cowboys OVER 45.5 | Top | 41-16 | Win | 100 | 25 h 12 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #123 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Dallas Cowboys versus Washington @ 4:30 ET - I had been watching this total and with the move from upper 40s to mid 40s I am now pulling the trigger on a top play with the over here. Washington is off a low-scoring win but they were struggling to stop Cincinnati until Burrow got knocked out of that game. The Redskins only ended up scoring 20 points as the Bengals were unable to stay in the game once Burrow got hurt. Washington's offense had been surging though and that resumes here. Since Smith took over at QB the Redskins passing attack is much more dangerous. He is going to take advantage of a Dallas defense that has allowed 32 points per game this season! The Cowboys have allowed 36.8 points per game at home this season. The Dallas offense, with Dalton back under center, is also much more dangerous again and they proved that again last week with a big 31-28 win at Minnesota. The Redskins have some good overall defensive numbers this season but have allowed 28.5 points per game on the road this season. Based on all of the above and the fact that the Cowboys are out for revenge after an embarrassing loss at Washington a month ago, this game is going to have plenty of fireworks! 10* OVER the total in Dallas |
|||||||
11-25-20 | Villanova v. Boston College OVER 140.5 | Top | 76-67 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Rotation #721 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston College Eagles vs Villanova Wildcats @ 9:30 ET @ Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, CT in the 2K Empire Classic - The Wildcats are highly ranked, like to play fast, and feel like they have unfinished business of the way the pandemic prevented March Madness 2020 from happening. I feel strongly that this very strong Villanova team is going to come out like they were shot out of a cannon and play that way for the full 40 as well as they do have great team depth too. The key here is the Eagles are adding some solid players to their backcourt for this season as they get a guy back who missed last season due to injury. Plus Boston College has added some veteran experience through transfers. That said, the over is the way to go here. Having a strong backcourt is a key early in the season and the Wildcats will force the Eagles to play a fast tempo and Boston College has the guard play to be successful in doing so. That said, plenty of points expected here. The Eagles defensive play was a weakness last season and Villanova is a very strong shooting team from beyond the arc and should get plenty of open looks in this one. Boston College allowed 74.3 points per game when away from home last season. The Wildcats allowed 68.7 points per game away from home last season. Considering that plus plenty of tempo for this game and some breakdowns on the defensive end (early in the season and coming in off tough off-season with limited practice time). 10* OVER the total in Boston College |
|||||||
11-23-20 | Rams v. Bucs OVER 48 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 22 h 11 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #473 Monday NFL 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Los Angeles Rams @ 8:15 ET - The Rams are on a long streak of unders but this looks like the perfect spot for it to snap. Los Angeles is off a big divisional win over Seattle. The Rams also have another divisional game on deck. Could there be a little lacking in defensive intensity here for Los Angeles? At the same time, Tom Brady is fired up for a much better performance in this one. Why? Well he and his Buccaneers teammates were just recently involved in a primetime game hosting the Saints and they were thoroughly embarrassed as they scored just 3 points. It is put up or shut up time in terms of the Bucs proving they can play with the best teams in a primetime match-up and Brady and company will be raring to go here! The Rams defense is strong and so too is that of the Buccaneers but this one is about the situation. I do feel the Tampa Bay defense is susceptible here. TB has allowed an average of 28 points in its last 3 games. Also, at home this season the Bucs have allowed more than 30 points in 2 of 4 games. The over is 3-1 in the Buccaneers last 4 games and when they met the Rams at LA last season the game totaled 95 points! The Rams are averaging 428 yards per game on the road this season and scored at least 30 points in each of their first 3 road games. As for the Buccaneers, before their debacle versus the Saints, they averaged scoring 35.7 points per game in their first 3 home games. With losses in each of their last two road games, the Rams are going to come out aggressive in this one. In other words, they'll be aggressive in their play-calling and I expect plenty of points from the road side in this one as a result. But don't be surprised if Tom Brady has a big game too and this could turn into more of a back and forth shootout then many expect. We'll see some field goals too but we'll see enough touchdowns for this one to get over the total which has come down from its opener - another thing I like here. 10* OVER the total in Tampa Bay |
|||||||
11-23-20 | Southampton v. Wolverhampton Wanderers OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 52 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach EPL Rotation #200021 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Wolverhampton vs Southampton @ 3 ET - I know the Wolves haven't been scoring a lot this season but they are at home where they have been a little better in that regard. Also, Southampton is going to dictate the pace in this one and their road games have averaged nearly 4 goals per game this season. Last season the Saints were among the best travelers in the league and they are known for scoring well on enemy pitch. As a result, I feel strongly that they will force the issue here and that means we have got great line value on a low total as this one absolutely should end up with at least 3 goals. I know Wolverhampton may want to slow this game down but Southampton won't allow that. Look for another high-scoring road contest involving the Saints as that is now a multi-year trend with them. Yes I am aware of Danny Ings being out for Southampton but others like James Ward-Prowse and Che Adams have picked up the offensive production in his absence. 10* OVER the total in Wolverhampton |
|||||||
11-22-20 | Packers v. Colts -120 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #462 Sunday 10* Top Play Indianapolis Colts vs Green Bay Packers @ 4:25 ET - The Colts have been looking forward to this one. Why? They lost their most recent home game and this will be their first game since then. Indianapolis lost to a strong Ravens team in their most recent game as a host. That defeat came despite a 10-7 lead at the half and despite holding Baltimore to just 266 yards in that game. In other words, don't be fooled by the final score and that is merely serving to give us line value here. Speaking of line value, the Colts did open up at a -3 and now this line has moved so low (-1 -115) in some spots that there is even more value on the money line (-120) in my opinion. This is as of 9 AM ET on Sunday and I am pulling the trigger here on this one. The Packers are getting all the market attention but I feel the better defense prevails here. In Green Bay's only 4 games against stronger teams this season (Minnesota twice and Tampa Bay and New Orleans), the Packers allowed an average of 32.5 points per game! To put that in proper perspective, the Colts have only allowed more than 27 points once this season when they gave up 32 at Cleveland. That was also a turnover-filled loss. With the way Indy QB Philip Rivers has played last 4 games (7 TD and only 2 INT), I look for the Colts to avoid the turnover issues that had plagued them earlier this season. Rivers has averaged 292 yards passing last 4 games and only thrown 1 INT in his last 3 games. Indianapolis was firing on all cylinders in their win at Tennessee and that was a Thursday night game too so they have the rest edge over Green Bay heading into this one as well. I certainly respect Aaron Rodgers and the Packers but feel strongly that the better defense prevails in this game and we don't even have to lay points (thanks to the line move) to have the home team and the better defense and this is when they also lost their most recent home game after starting the season 3-0 at home. Great situation! 10* INDIANAPOLIS |
|||||||
11-22-20 | Cowboys v. Vikings OVER 48 | Top | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
NFC Total of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #469 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Vikings vs Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET - The Vikings are off a hard-fought win over the Bears on Monday Night. Even though Minnesota scored only 19 points in that game they did have nearly 400 yards of offense and certainly should have scored more. I know their defense looked good in that one but the Bears have major issues on offense. Also, off of that big divisional win and on a short week, the Vikings defense will not have the same intensity for facing this Cowboys team in a down season. At the same time, Dallas will get a boost on offense with the return of Andy Dalton at QB. Look for the rejuvenated Cowboys, also coming off a bye week, to surprise many by putting up plenty of points in this one. The Vikings have allowed an average of 33.5 points per game at home this season and the over is a perfect 4-0 in their games as a host this season. Speaking of struggling defense, the Cowboys have allowed an average of 32.2 points per game this season and that includes 3 games against NFC East opponents too and everyone knows how bad the NFC East has been this season. In other words, the Dallas defense is simply atrocious and the Vikings, with Kirk Cousins playing well of late, will have a huge game here at home. This total has been kept in the upper 40s because of the Cowboys poor numbers on offense of late. With Dalton coming back, we'll take advantage of the low total as this is an ideal situation for both teams to put up plenty of points. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
|||||||
11-22-20 | Arsenal v. Leeds United OVER 2.75 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -112 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
TV Total Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach EPL Rotation #200009 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Leeds United vs Arsenal @ 11:30 AM ET - Leeds United enters this game off back to back 4-1 losses. Arsenal is off a 3-0 loss. Both teams are currently down in the table and certainly not where they want to be. The reason I like the over here is neither team will want to sit back here and Arsenal, despite struggling to score goals early this season, actually does like to play a high octane style per se. Neither team will sit back because they want those 3 points in the standings and remember Leeds United has proven they can raise their game as they already have earned a draw with Manchester City and they defeated Liverpool 4-3 in their first match of the season. I do expect Leeds to play well here but Arsenal is absolutely going to challenge them and Leeds has shipped 9 goals already in 4 matches on their home pitch this season. Leeds has impressed with some big efforts at the other end of the pitch and that is what I am expecting here as they are off back to back losses. Look for Leeds to get 2 and Arsenal to get 2 as well. I am expecting 4 goals in this one and certainly expect at least 3. The situation warrants strong attacking efforts from both clubs as Arsenal was on the wrong end of a clean sheet in their most recent game. 10* OVER the total in Leeds United |
|||||||
11-21-20 | Oklahoma State v. Oklahoma OVER 60 | Top | 13-41 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
Big 12 Total of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #401 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oklahoma Sooners vs Oklahoma State Cowboys @ 7:30 ET - I am well aware of the fact that each of these teams are producing some solid defensive numbers. However, I am also well aware of the fact that Oklahoma has a scary good offense and the Cowboys are ultra talented on offense that should have WR Wallace back for this one as well. Prior to struggling to score without Wallace in their most recent game, the Cowboys had averaged 33 points per game in their 4 preceding games. Yes, the Sooners are off a strong effort on defense but their 5 preceding games saw them allow 32.4 points per game. Other than games against a bad Kansas team and an FCS school, Missouri State, Oklahoma's defense has not been that impressive. As for the Cowboys defense I know they have some good numbers this season but the Sooners always seem to give them a ton of trouble and OU comes into this game on an extreme surge on offense. Oklahoma has scored 62 points in each of their last 2 games and they are averaging 46 points on the season. The Sooners are loaded with confidence right now and both teams are coming off bye weeks too. That means extra time to work in a few extra wrinkles on offense for this massive annual rivalry game. You know Oklahoma State will have a few trick plays up their sleeve as per usual. We are getting a lower total on this game this season (compared to this same match-up in recent seasons) because each team has some better numbers on defense but I just can not see OSU getting many stops in this one. I also don't see the Cowboys going down without a fight in this one. That said, the over is the way to go here as they allowed 28 points or more in 4 of their first 5 games against FBS teams this season and have scored at least 30 points in all of their games. You can see why I am expecting these teams to get well into the 60s and likely even 70s in this one. The last time they met in Norman, the teams combined for 95 points! Look for another wild one here. 10* OVER the total in Oklahoma |
|||||||
11-21-20 | Cincinnati v. Central Florida +5.5 | Top | 36-33 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #344 Saturday 10* Central Florida Knights (+) vs Cincinnati Bearcats @ 3:30 ET - The Bearcats have a fantastic defense and are having a great season. With an ultra-talented defense like Cincinnati has it is going to take a very special offense to do any damage against them. That said, welcome to Central Florida! Not only do the Knights play very fast on offense they also are extremely dangerous with tremendous big play capabilities. Also, UCF should have beaten the Bearcats last season but they were done in by 4 turnovers. The Knights put up 423 yards of offense but lost by 3 points and that game was at Cincinnati. The turnovers were the difference in the game. Clearly UCF has played the tougher schedule so far this season and that is why we're getting line value here too with the Knights as a home dog. Everyone sees the undefeated Bearcats on the road and having obliterated teams but this is a match-up that will give them issues for sure. Cincinnati's friendly schedule thus far includes the fact that they have been on the road only one time this season. Though the Bearcats won big at SMU in their lone road game, they actually had just 17 first downs in that game while the Mustangs had 22. Cincinnati is absolutely a very good team but they have had it quite easy so far this season with scheduling and all the breaks seeming to go their way too. That ends here on Saturday and the Knights return the favor after losing at Cincinnati last season in a game they should not have lost - UCF outgained them by 82 yards. Payback time here. The Knights are averaging an insane 619 yards of offense per game. 10* CENTRAL FLORIDA |
|||||||
11-21-20 | Manchester City v. Tottenham Hotspur OVER 3 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 52 m | Show |
TV Total of the Month - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach EPL Rotation #200069 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 3 goals in Tottenham Hotspur vs Manchester City @ 12:30 PM ET - Last season no club scored more goals in away fixtures than Manchester City. In 19 league games away from home Manchester City scored 45 goals! That is an average of 2.4 goals per match on enemy pitch. Tottenham averaged nearly 2 goals per game on their home pitch last season. The Hotspur also are off to a red hot start this season with already finding the back of the net 19 times in 8 matches. That is an average of 2.4 goals per fixture. Everything I am seeing here indicates each club will get to at least 2 goals in this one. The lone concern in this one is that Manchester City is off to a sluggish start this season in terms of their goal scoring. But I fully expect this to change and right after the international break is the perfect time. Another sign to point to is no other club has scored more than 9 goals in 3 Champions League matches and that is the tally that Manchester City has as they have averaged 3 goals in those matches. This club can, and will, score with authority and they are staring up in the table at Tottenham as the Hotspur are near the top. This is the perfect spot for Manchester City to make a statement and I expect a very aggressive game from them as this match-up features a pair of managers, Mourinho and Guardiola, with quite a history so look for the clubs to feed off each others aggression. The result will be an entertaining and high-scoring affair the way I see it. 10* OVER 3 goals in Tottenham |
|||||||
11-20-20 | Purdue -116 v. Minnesota | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -116 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #327 Friday 10* Top Play Purdue Boilermakers Money Line (-115) @ Minnesota Golden Gophers @ 7:30 ET - This line (ATS) was a -3 on Purdue earlier this week but has dropped down to as low as a 1.5 as of early Friday morning and that is why I am recommending a play on the money line because that is now available in the -115 range after this line move! I understand the move as there are rumors that QB Aidan O'Connell is a game-time decision for this one. Keep in mind the Boilermakers still have former starting QB Jack Plummer available and O'Connell barely beat him out for the starting job heading into this season. Also, O'Connell is coming off a rough game with some poor decision-making and did not have great touch on some of his throws. In other words a QB change here wouldn't even be the worst thing in the world. Teams can run all over the Golden Gophers so they don't throw much against them as a general rule but that doesn't mean their pass defense is great. In fact, Minnesota is next to last in the Big Ten in yards allowed per completion at 8.8 yards and also rank in the bottom half of the Big Ten for pass defense efficiency. As for the rush defense, it is horrible. Yes Purdue doesn't tend to run a lot but don't be surprised if you see a little extra from 6'5 230 lb Zander Horvath. He struggled against Northwestern last week but also gained 129 yards on 21 carries (6.1 ypc) against a very tough Iowa defense a few weeks prior to that. Purdue is averaging 307 yards per game through the air and will enjoy success both on the ground and with the aerial attack against a very bad Minnesota defense which, other than when facing a team with a 4th string QB (Illinois), has allowed 43 points per game this season! The Boilermakers are allowing just 23.7 points per game this season. The Golden Gophers are scoring an average of only 15.5 points per game at home this season. Minnesota just lost by 28 to the same Iowa team which Purdue defeated last month. This is also a revenge game for the Boilermakers as they lost at home to the Golden Gophers last season and got blasted in their last visit to Minnesota. Also, while the Boilers have "only" Rutgers on deck, the Gophers have a revenge game against rival Wisconsin up next. Last season, the Badgers beat Minny in the regular season finale which cost the Golden Gophers a spot in a chance in the Big Ten Championship Game and ultimately a potential shot at a Rose Bowl berth. Both teams enter this game off a loss here but you can see why I feel the road team is not only the better team but also will be the more focused team in this match-up. 10* PURDUE money line -115 |
|||||||
11-19-20 | Cardinals v. Seahawks OVER 57.5 | Top | 21-28 | Loss | -107 | 59 h 33 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #321 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Seattle Seahawks vs Arizona Cardinals @ 8:20 ET - This total is a big one but don't let that scare you. The weather forecast is typical for Seattle this time of year. Chilly, but not too cold. Rainy, but rather light. The good news is no significant winds expected Thursday evening. In other words, both offenses should be able to have the playbooks fully open for this one. The Cardinals last 3 games have all totaled more than 60 points. Not only that, the Cards have allowed at least 30 in all 3 games plus scored at least 30 in all 3 games! As for the Seahawks, they are off a rare low-scoring loss but that was at LA against a tough Rams defense. Now they are back home and Seattle had scored 27 or more in all of their first 8 games and they reached 31 points or more in all but one of those. The Seahawks are allowing an average of 30.4 points per game. With the Cards surging with momentum after their dramatic last-second win on a Hail Mary pass last week, the offense feels it could do no wrong. But don't be surprised if the Arizona defense continues to struggle here as winning has a way of masking the problems and then teams think things are okay but really this Cards D has issues. The Seahawks will be looking to exploit those again in this revenge game as they did lose at Arizona in their meeting less than month ago. The Cardinals also beat the Seahawks in their last visit to the pacific northwest. That said, you know Russell Wilson and company are out for big-time revenge here but their defense has been a major weakness all season. That is why I expect a ton of points in this one. The over is 3-1 in Seahawks home games this season and the Cardinals recent over trend (3-0) is destined to continue here as well. 10* OVER the total in Seattle |
|||||||
11-19-20 | Tulane v. Tulsa OVER 53.5 | Top | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #425 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs Tulane Green Wave @ 7:30 ET - Tulsa is in a flat spot here. They are off a big win over SMU and have another huge game on deck at Houston. Also, the Golden Hurricane are now a ranked team for the first time in ten years! As a result of being flat for this one don't be surprised if a surging Tulane team does plenty of damage on offense in this one against a Tulsa defense that could be "going through the motions" a bit. On the flip side though, I just can not trust this Green Wave defense. I know that they have appeared strong in the last 3 games but those were against struggling offenses. In the 3 games that preceded those 3 Tulane allowed an average of 49 points per game. The good news for Green Wave fans is their offense is averaging 40 points per game the last 7 games! Tulsa will struggle to slow down a confident Tulane group but, at the same time, the Golden Hurricane passing attack is strong and the Green Wave are not good against the pass. It is forecast to be a windy afternoon in Tulsa but the winds are supposed to start laying down some by kickoff this one. There will still be some breeze but it should be more in the range that does not cause a problem in terms of the passing attack. The Golden Hurricane have allowed an average of 27 points in their home games and, in this flat spot, their defense could prove even more susceptible against what has become a very balanced Tulane offense this season! Look for the over to improve to 3-1 in Tulsa's last 4 games and 7-2 in the last 9 games for the Green Wave. 10* OVER the total in Tulsa |
|||||||
11-18-20 | Toledo -6.5 v. Eastern Michigan | Top | 45-28 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #311 Wednesday 10* Top Play Toledo Rockets (-) @ Eastern Michigan Eagles @ 7 ET - Toledo has dominated this series in recent years in terms of SU wins. However, Eastern Michigan has actually covered 4 straight games in this series. The last 3 meetings have all been decided by 5 or less points. Given the above, this line might seem too high. But this is where I use history like that to my advantage because it is helping to keep this line lower than it should be actually. Toledo is the much better team on both sides of the ball and the Rockets very motivated after an unreal loss at Western Michigan last week. In that game the Broncos scored 13 points in the final 45 seconds to miraculously win the game. The Rockets looked like the better team for nearly the entirety of that game. Toledo is averaging 512.5 yards per game and allowing only 352 yards per game. The Eagles are averaging just 389.5 yards per game and allowing a whopping 483.5 yards per game. The last time these teams met here in Ypsilanti, MI the Rockets fell behind 28-3 at the half in the 28-26 loss. That rally fell short but Toledo has been reminded of that game coming into this one. It is the only loss the Rockets have in the last 13 meetings with Eastern Michigan! It is payback time on Wednesday. 10* TOLEDO |
|||||||
11-17-20 | Buffalo v. Bowling Green +31.5 | Top | 42-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #304 Tuesday 10* Top Play Bowling Green Falcons (+) vs Buffalo Bulls @ 7 ET - Buffalo lost to Northern Illinois in the 2018 MAC Championship Game. What does that have to do with this play? Bear with me for a minute here. The Bulls began this season with a revenge win over the Huskies two weeks ago. Then last week Buffalo beat Miami (Ohio) and on deck after this game is Kent State and then Ohio University. What do the Redhawks, Golden Flashes, and Bobcats have in common? They were the teams that handed the Bulls their only 3 MAC losses last season. The point is that of the Bulls first 5 games in this compacted MAC season, 4 of them are revenge games. The only one that isn't is this game against a Falcons team they have pummeled by an average margin of 36 points per game in the last two meetings. That said, this line is about where I would expect it to be considering the Bulls won by 30 in their last visit here. However, given the circumstances, this point spread is likely to prove to be too much. Buffalo wins big here but not big enough! Bowling Green is off back to back embarrassing losses to start the season. But the fact the Falcons are at home and off an absolute stinker in their home opener for this season means you can expect a big response from Bowling Green here. This is a flat spot for the Bulls whereas the Falcons are off a beating by a 38 point margin at Perry Stadium. In other words, embarrassment in your own house. They'll still struggle here because the Bulls are certainly the much better team. But I could see Buffalo "going through the motions" in this one while I have no doubt the Falcons "come to play" after the way their season has started. 10* BOWLING GREEN |
|||||||
11-16-20 | Vikings v. Bears +3.5 | Top | 19-13 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #276 Monday 10* Top Play Chicago Bears (+) vs Minnesota Vikings @ 8:15 - I'll gladly fade the line move here and go with the home dog in Monday night action in a big divisional match-up. The Vikings are on a bit of a surge now including a recent win over the Packers. However, Minnesota was actually outgained by 76 yards in that game plus they caught Green Bay off back to back road games. It was a bit of a tough spot for the Pack. Still let's give credit where credit is due but that was just one win for Minnesota and they actually lost the stats battle in that game. In terms of the other wins this season, they have come against teams with a combined record of 6-12 SU on the season. Now the Vikings are on the road facing a Bears team that has beaten them 4 straight times. Not only that, Chicago is off a game in which they outgained the Titans by 147 yards but lost on the scoreboard. Keep in mind that game was at Tennessee and they are 6-3 on the season. In terms of other tough match-ups this season the Bears did beat the Buccaneers (now 7-3 on the season) and lost to the Saints (7-2 on the season) on a field goal in OT. The point is that there is solid line value here with a Bears team that has proven it can play with tough teams and this is especially true when they are now catching as much as 3.5 points as a home dog in a divisional match-up against a team whose number they have had. The Vikings have been really hot ATS but the Bears are off an ATS loss and have gone 3-0 ATS this season when in that situation. I also like the Chicago defense (335.1 ypg) much more than the Vikings defense (412.9 ypg) this season. Will be chilly and potentially breezy too in the Windy City tonight and that adds even more value to the defensive-minded home dog in this one. The Vikings running attack has been great this season but the Bears are allowing an average of just 18.5 points per game in regulation time of their home games this season. Also, the Bears just faced a tough running team at Tennessee and they held the Titans to just 92 yards on the ground and only 3 yards per carry. Give me the home dog in this one. 10* CHICAGO |
|||||||
11-15-20 | Ravens v. Patriots UNDER 44 | Top | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #274 Sunday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in New England Patriots vs Baltimore Ravens @ 8:20 ET - We are betting here on the weather too but that should be a key factor. Wind and rain is expected to move into Foxboro just in time for kickoff of this one. Even if we don't get that key factor which helps unders there are a couple of other key factors I like as well. One is the line move as this line has risen from near 40 up to the mid-40s. Another is the game-planning. I know full well that the Ravens solid defense would love nothing more than to march into Foxboro and completely shutdown Bill Belichick's offense which certainly has been having some issues this season. Keep in mind the Ravens are allowing just 17.8 points per game and that ranks #1 in the NFL this season. The Patriots did score big against the Raiders here but in their other 3 home games this season New England has averaged just 13 points per game. The Pats are a smart team of course though and Belichick knows the key to hanging around in this game is limiting the potent Baltimore offense. In last season's match-up the Ravens scored 37 points and Belichick knows that can not happen again. He will try to chew up a lot of clock when his offense is on the field and now lets talk about the Patriots defense. The Pats have given up too much their last few games in terms of points and that included a rough home game versus the 49ers. After getting embarrassed at home in their most recent game here, you know the defense wants to make up for it. In their preceding 3 home games the Patriots allowed an average of only 16.3 points per game. Considering the above as well as the weather conditions I am expecting a bit of a grinder tonight at Gillette Stadium. 10* UNDER the total in New England |
|||||||
11-15-20 | Broncos +4 v. Raiders | Top | 12-37 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 26 m | Show |
AFC West Game of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #265 Sunday 10* Top Play Denver Broncos (+) @ Las Vegas Raiders @ 4:05 ET - The Broncos are off a loss at Atlanta but that was a horrible spot for them. They were off miraculous last 2nd home win over the Chargers. That left them flat for the game with the Falcons and especially because it was a divisional sandwich. Yes, after facing the Chargers it was another division rival (Raiders) on deck following the trip to Atlanta. Sure enough Denver fell flat but now they respond here. I feel Las Vegas is a little over-rated right now. The Raiders are such a bad team defensively but caught a break with facing the Chargers last week as Los Angeles still couldn't get over the unreal loss at Denver the prior week. Additionally, the Raiders other recent win was at Cleveland where their defense was helped by playing the game in horrible weather conditions that limited both offenses. Prior to these two wins, Las Vegas had lost 3 of 4 and I feel strongly that they are fortunate to be 5-3 on the season. As for the Broncos, they had won 3 of 4 prior to last week's loss and they are definitely the better defense in this match-up and are flying under the radar a bit right now because they started the season 0-3 whereas the Raiders started the season 2-0. Public perception heavily favors the Raiders in this one and yet the line has moved toward the Broncos in this one. That is sharp money in my opinion and will include some of mine too on Sunday. I am aware of the recent home dominance trend in this series but the Raiders have allowed 33 points per game in their new home and lost plus failed to cover each of their last two games in Vegas. The Broncos were 3-0 ATS on the road this season before last week's loss and again that was a huge flat spot for them. They will not be flat here. 10* DENVER |
|||||||
11-15-20 | California v. UCLA OVER 55 | Top | 10-34 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 9 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #233 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in UCLA Bruins vs California Golden Bears @ Noon ET - This one follows the similar analytics we used with yesterday's totals play which was the Colorado over. California is known for defense and their last dozen games at UCLA have resulted in 8 unders. That's a 67% win rate for unders long-term but that was then and this is now. The Bruins play extremely fast and their game at Colorado last week totaled 90 points! The Golden Bears personnel losses were significant on the defensive side of the ball as they lost 3 guys to the NFL. That is some big-time talent to have departed the defense. On offense, California returns nearly everyone and they surged late last season and looked stronger on offense in their last 5 games (including bowl game) to wrap up the season. Now they also have a new offensive coordinator on board this season and Bill Musgrave has been an offensive coordinator in the NFL and had some great turnaround success in some of his stops. You know he'll be itching to put on a good show right out of the gate and here he has the perfect set-up. He is going against one of the worst defenses in the nation and plus the Bruins offense plays so fast that the Golden Bears offense will get plenty of opportunities on the field. The fact this is a game that was oddly scheduled actually helps the offenses in my opinion. UCLA had their defense preparing to face Utah while the Bears had been preparing to face Arizona State. Then, due to covid issues those games were cancelled for Saturday and now these teams face off early Sunday in an oddly scheduled game. Don't let the early start time concern you either though. Last Saturday USC kicked off the Pac-12 season with a 9 AM Pacific time start versus Arizona State and the game had 31 points in the first half. These teams both will enjoy plenty of success early, often, and throughout this game. Beautiful weather expected for this one too. 10* OVER the total in UCLA |
|||||||
11-14-20 | Wisconsin v. Michigan +6.5 | Top | 49-11 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #162 Saturday 10* Top Play Michigan Wolverines (+) vs Wisconsin Badgers @ 7:30 ET - The contrarian theme continues. Everyone loves the Badgers this week. I used them for a big play in their opening game win over Illinois (an easy win) so I know plenty about how good this Wisconsin team can be. However, I also know that the Illini are a very bad football team, the Badgers have been dealing with covid-19 issues and haven't played in a game in 3 weeks, and that the Wolverines are a much better team than they've shown so far this season. They did lose last week at Indiana but had 344 passing yards but were done in by a pair of a interceptions. The Hoosiers are now 3-0 on the season and also beat a talented (though struggling) Penn State team. In other words the "atrocities" of losing to Indiana and Michigan State (almost always a tough rivalry game) may be getting a bit overplayed with regards to this Michigan team. The Wolverines did outgain the Spartans in the lost and, again, it is a huge rivalry game in which Michigan State almost always seems to step up their game to their highest level no matter how much more talented Michigan is than they are. I know the Badgers Graham Mertz is a very talented QB and comes highly regarded (and deserves it) but if you think after 3 weeks off and valuable practice time lost due to covid-19, that he will go to Michigan and do the same thing he did against Illinois at home in Madison, you don't know football. The Wolverines are well aware of being disrespected heading into this game and they have heard all about the talented phenom Mertz and this defense will have its ears pinned back for this one. Don't forget too that Wisconsin really didn't run the ball that well against Illinois either. That is not a good sign for this game. If the Badgers can't establish the run against the Big Blue defense a ton of pressure will be on Mertz to win this game. On the other side of the ball, the Wolverines have the talent to move the ball down the field and are averaging nearly 300 passing yards per game! The Badgers go from facing a very weak Illini offense to facing a team that, when it comes to play, is quite talented on offense. I fully expect an "A game" effort from Michigan in their own house here as they lost their only other game here this season plus have revenge from losing by 21 in Madison last year. When considering that plus the huge line move toward Wisconsin here, we have line value that is absolutely "off the charts" for this one. 10* MICHIGAN |
|||||||
11-14-20 | Colorado v. Stanford OVER 54.5 | Top | 35-32 | Win | 100 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #193 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Stanford Cardinal vs Colorado Buffaloes @ 3:30 ET - This series has a history of low-scoring games with 5 of 6 games staying under the total. Last season's game totaled only 29 points. That said, give me the over! Indeed, history is oftentimes just that...history! These are different teams than they were in past seasons of course. The Cardinal use to be known as a defensive-minded team that likes to run the ball on offense and control the clock. This is no longer the way football is played at Stanford and last season their passing attack was much better than the ground game and I expect more of the same this season. Also, the Cardinal pass defense was very poor last season and so too was the Buffaloes. That said, I am expecting plenty of points here as Colorado is off a crazy 48-42 win over UCLA which was played at a very fast pace. Even though Stanford's game against Oregon stayed under the total, they had 413 yards of offense (even without their starting QB Davis Mills) and that was against a respectable Oregon team. Also, the Cardinal allowed the Ducks nearly 500 yards. The Buffaloes game against the Bruins totaled over 1000 yards of offense. We get a low total to work with here thanks to the long-term history of the Cardinal as well as the low-scoring trend in this series. That was then and this is now and also very nice weather expected for this game as well. That said, all signs point to a game that gets well into the 60s here and might even get into the 70s. Tremendous value as neither team will be able to stop the other. 10* OVER the total in Stanford |
|||||||
11-13-20 | East Carolina +28 v. Cincinnati | Top | 17-55 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #129 Friday 10* Top Play East Carolina Pirates (+) @ Cincinnati Bearcats @ 7:30 ET - This is a potential flat spot for the Bearcats. Of course I expect Cincinnati to win this game and, perhaps, even handily. But winning a game handily or comfortably doesn't mean covering a 4-TD spread. I expect about a two TD margin here which means we have a lot of cushion to work with. Cincinnati is off 3 straight big games against tougher opponents plus has a tough game on deck at Central Florida. A game against the fast-paced Knights, and a game that is at UCF no less, is the one that could trip up the undefeated Bearcats. That said, there is no doubt that upcoming game is on the minds of Cincinnati at least to an extent and it doesn't take much to throw a team off that has to be firing on all cylinders to cover this enormous spread. Keep in mind, the game between these teams last season was decided by just 3 points. Also, in the Bearcats 4 home games against FBS schools this season they have averaged 34.8 points per game. The Pirates are averaging 29.2 points per game this season and have not been held below 21 points in any of their 6 games. Now, of course, I am well aware that the Bearcats defense is much better than the East Carolina defense but the point is that the Pirates offense is a pretty solid unit and if Cincy just loses a little focus for this game it will be closer than many are expecting. If the Bearcats do eventually pull away it will hard to pull away by a lot and the Pirates talented offense means they have a great shot at backdoor cover - should one even be needed! In an otherwise disappointing campaign, this is a chance for East Carolina to make some noise on center stage on a Friday Night game on ESPN. The Pirates are certainly well aware that they are 1-5 and Cincinnati is 6-0 on the season and ranked in the top ten in the nation so look for an "A game" effort from the big dog in this one! 10* EAST CAROLINA |
|||||||
11-12-20 | Colts v. Titans +1 | Top | 34-17 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #122 Thursday 10* Top Play Tennessee Titans (-) vs Indianapolis Colts @ 8:20 ET - Historically I like playing against line moves and have had particular success when a line flips. What I mean by that is when you have a team that was the favorite earlier on actually become the dog as the week goes on. That is the case here with the Titans having been favored by nearly a full field goal earlier this week and yet now on game day morning they are a +1 in some spots. I'll take it! I do respect the Colts and their tough defense but Rivers and Company have struggled against tougher teams this season. Rivers has some very strong positive numbers against bad teams but against the Ravens, Bears, Browns (the only teams currently with a winning record which he has faced) he has put up a total of only 1 TD while also throwing 3 INTs. Note that the Colts are only 2-2 SU on the road this season and they entered this season 7-17 SU on the road the 3 prior seasons combined. Both teams are on a short week of course with this being a Thursday game. However, it is a little more manageable for the Titans because this is the 2nd of back to back home games for them. For the Colts, they are on the road for the 4th time in 6 games and plus they just played a physical Ravens team. This season, teams are 2-5 ATS the week after playing Baltimore and, again, in this case it is a short week too which makes it even tougher for the Colts. I know the box score was an ugly one for Tennessee last week and they were fortunate to beat the Bears but I am sure they were peeking ahead to this huge division rivalry game a bit too. Keep in mind Indy has dominated this series long-term and that includes winning the last two games here by a combined score of 52-34. The Titans are poised to say "enough is enough" and I look for Ryan Tannehill (19-3 TD-INT ratio) to bounce back after a 10 for 21 performance last week. Tennessee simply wasn't good last week but they still improve to 4-1 SU at home on the season and are now 25-12 in home games since the start of the 2016 season. Titans finally get it done against the Colts at home as Tannehill outplays Rivers as the main story line in this one. 10* TENNESSEE |
|||||||
11-12-20 | Colorado State v. Boise State OVER 59 | Top | 21-52 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
Thursday Thrasher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #123 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boise State Broncos vs Colorado State Rams @ 8 ET - Fortunately, if you like offense, this game is being played Thursday and not Friday. There is a weather system moving into the Pacific Northwest with wind and snow and rain but that is not getting into the Boise area until Friday. That said, Thursday night's weather looks great. No precipitation and winds near 10 mph and chilly (but very normal) temperatures for this one at Albertsons Stadium. As long-time followers know I love fading prevailing opinion and this is such a beautiful example of that which hopefully will cash nicely for us. The Broncos were without running back George Holani last week and he is doubtful again this week so everyone expects Boise State to struggle again running the ball. No, no, no! The key to any running game is how well guys can block up front to open up holes for the running game or to consistently get strong forward push so the backs (ANY back!) can gain positive yardage. The problem last week was NOT Holani being out, it was that the Broncos faced a BYU defense that has been incredible this season. In fact the Cougars have been fantastic on both sides of the ball this season and Boise State simply ran into a buzz-saw last week. I am also aware of the Boise State QB situation but they have plenty of capable arms no matter who is under center for this game and this is particularly true because they are at home and facing a very questionable Rams pass defense. One thing Colorado State does have going for them is a solid offense and the Broncos defense certainly has not looked as strong this season as they have allowed at least 30 points now in back to back games. The last time these teams met in Boise the game totaled 84 points. This one may not get that high but truly 70s would not be a surprise to me and I feel very confident this one gets into the 60s. The Broncos are angry off a loss and so their offense is not going to take their foot off the gas in this one. Last year's match-up at Colorado State had 38 points at the half but still finished under the total due to a low-scoring 2nd half. That is merely serving to give us extra line value here and note that the over is 3-1 in the last 4 meetings in Idaho. That trend continues here. 10* OVER the total in Boise State |
|||||||
11-11-20 | Toledo v. Western Michigan -2.5 | Top | 38-41 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #120 Wednesday 10* Top Play Western Michigan Broncos vs Toledo Rockets @ 8 ET - When it is early in the season it helps once you've see a team twice to know a little bit more. I know what you're thinking. This teams have only played once so what I am talking about? Let me explain. Toledo destroyed Bowling Green last week but then I watched the Falcons get destroyed again last night by a Kent State team that, no disrespect intended, shouldn't be beating anyone else in the MAC by a 38 point margin especially when on the road. So the point is don't put too much stock into the Rockets destroying the Falcons last week. As for the Broncos, they destroyed the Zips last week and that game was at Akron. Then what did we see from Akron last night, a determined effort at Ohio University where they were a 4 TD underdog and didn't even give up 28 points on the night in the 24-10 hard-fought loss. The point is that, even though it is early in the season, the Broncos might be stronger than most anticipated. These teams were projected to finish 1-2 in the West Division of the MAC. With the fact that the Rockets have dominated this series recently but the Broncos at home for this one and revenge-seeking and perhaps even stronger than many anticipated entering this season, I am going big on Western Michigan here. The Broncos are a very strong along the offensive line and also their defense looks deeper this season. The offense will attack a Toledo secondary that is a bit of a question mark entering this season. 10* WESTERN MICHIGAN |
|||||||
11-10-20 | Miami-OH v. Buffalo -9.5 | Top | 10-42 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #112 Tuesday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bulls (-) vs Miami-OH Redhawks @ 8 ET - The Bulls are off a revenging win at Northern Illinois last week. The Huskies had beaten them in the MAC Championship Game year before last. Now Buffalo has another revenge game this week. Last season one of their few MAC losses was at Miami-Ohio. The Bulls lost that game because of 4 turnovers and 10 penalties for over 100 yards! Buffalo outgained the Redhawks by 164 yards on the ground and I expect that to be a theme again in this year's rematch. The Bulls catch Miami-Ohio off a hard-fought home win over Ball State. They lost QB Brett Gabbert in that one and I would be very surprised if he plays this week. Although AJ Mayer was solid in taking his place that game was at home against a weak Cardinals defense. He will face a much tougher defense this week plus he is on the road. Even though the stats weren't so great for the Bulls last week I do like the fact they averaged 5.4 ypc on the ground while Miami-Ohio averaged only 3.2 ypc on the ground against a generally sub-par Cards defense. If Mayer gets the start here it will be the first start of his career and it comes on the road and it comes against the best team in the MAC East and it comes with the Bulls in revenge mode and playing their home opener. I am not a big fan of laying big points but this one meets all the requirements I look for when doing so. Also, note that the Bulls have covered 8 in a row as a MAC home favorite. That streak continues here. 10* BUFFALO |
|||||||
11-09-20 | Patriots v. Jets OVER 41 | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #475 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Jets vs New England Patriots @ 8:15 ET - As long-time followers know, I am a contrarian. That said, with the Patriots having averaged scoring only 12 points per game their last 4 games and the Jets having scored an average of only 7 points per game their last 4 games, there was only one way I am looking in this game and that is the over. But why? Of course there has to be good reasoning and in this case there is sure is. For one thing we are getting incredible line value with such a low total posted on this game. But in terms of how it will play out Cam Newton was better last week for the Patriots and I expect him to have a strong game here against a Jets defense that has allowed an average of 30 points per game this season. Also, New York's offense might surprise some people tonight. I am expecting both Breshad Perriman and Jamison Crowder back for the Jets tonight. That is a couple of key talents back at WR for New York tonight and that gives the New York QB some talented targets in the passing game. Now I know what you're saying. Sam Darnold is likely out for this game. No offense to him but he has not been healthy and hasn't looked right. The Jets offense will be in much better hands tonight with the veteran Joe Flacco back there and he'll be attacking a Patriots defense which has allowed an average of 28 points in 3 road games this season. Based on the spread on this game as well as the total the betting markets are calling for a 26-16 type NE win. I am telling you I expect both teams to exceed those respective point totals and that is why I am going big on the over in this game. Yes it is a contrarian play per se but being contrarian (especially in the NFL) is how I have lasted successfully in this industry for two decades. You have to pick your spots to be a contrarian but this is one of those spots and, almost forgot to mention this but, the weather is certainly going to be spectacular this evening in East Rutherford, NJ for this one. Light winds, no precipitation, and very mild temperatures. 10* OVER the total in New York Jets |
|||||||
11-08-20 | Dolphins v. Cardinals -5 | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -114 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #472 Sunday 10* Top Play Arizona Cardinals (-) vs Miami Dolphins @ 4:25 ET - the dolphins are over-rated in my opinion and we're catching them at the perfect time to fade them, miami is coming off a big over the rams even though they were outgained by 326 yards and had 23 less first downs, of course this is leading to line value this week because it is also noteworthy that tagovailoa will be making his first road start, arizona has a big edge here with coming off their bye week and that was preceded by 3 straight wins both SU and ATS, if the dolphins were having a poor season the cardinals might overlook them, the fact that miami has a winning record and just beat the LA rams makes sure of the fact that the cardinals will have proper focus here, also another AFC team is on deck for arizona so there is no lookahead here, the dolphins are on a 5-10 ats run as a road dog in a non-divisional game while the cardinals are 4-1 ats their last 5 games against afc competition, statistically the cards have one of the best offenses in the league while the dolphins have one of the worst and i just don't see miami being able to keep up in this one as the cardinals get after tagovailoa early and often and disrupt the dolphins entire game plan 10* ARIZONA |
|||||||
11-08-20 | Lions v. Vikings OVER 51.5 | Top | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 5 h 27 m | Show |
NFC North Total of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #457 Sunday 10* OVER the total in Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions @ 1:00 ET - This total plummeted because of Matthew Stafford, Lions QB, having been exposed to someone with covid on Monday. However, he is cleared to play as long as his final test this morning comes out okay and even if he didn't I would not be surprised to see back-up quarterback Chase Daniel enjoy success against this struggling Vikings defense! Minnesota has allowed 38 points per game in its 3 home games this season. The good news for Vikings fans is the Lions defense is also very bad and Minnesota had their run game going against Green Bay last week and, of course, once the run is established that makes the passing game even that much easier to get going! Detroit has allowed 29.4 points per game this season. Minnesota has scored 27.6 points per game their last 5 games. The Lions are averaging 25.3 points per game on the season. Look for the over to remain perfect in Vikings home games this season - it is already 3-0 on the year and all 3 flew over by a double digit margin! Also, I am aware of Kenny Golladay being out for this game but the Lions have plenty of other weapons on offense and this is particularly true with the current bad shape that the Vikings defense is in. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
|||||||
11-08-20 | Liverpool v. Manchester City OVER 3 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -135 | 17 h 55 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach EPL Rotation #200033 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Manchester City vs Liverpool @ 11:30 AM ET - There is too much striking ability and tactical ability up front to ignore in this one. Look for plenty of goals. Liverpool has given up an average of 3 goals in their away fixtures this season but this is also a top-flight club that is loaded with scoring ability and averaging 2.4 goals scored per match this season. Even though Manchester City has trended a little more lower-scoring this season their games are still averaging nearly 3 goals per match. Also, Manchester City has scored 3 goals in in 3 of their last 5 matches across all competitions. Liverpool has scored at least 2 goals in 4 straight matches across all competitions and scored an average of nearly 3 goals during this stretch. Yes there is some juice to lay with this total at a 3 but it is truly a great value to have the over 3 when you consider the above scoring data as well as the fact that 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two top-flight clubs have totaled at least 3 goals and each of the last 2 did tally at least 4 markers. This is going to be a hard-fought battle with plenty of scoring chances based on the tactical attacking style each club can employ here. That said, I do expect EACH club to get to TWO goals here and that guarantees us at least a 2-2 final and a winning totals ticket here. 10* OVER the total in Manchester City |
|||||||
11-07-20 | UCLA v. Colorado OVER 56 | Top | 42-48 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #353 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Buffaloes vs UCLA Bruins @ 7:00 PM ET - I know these teams have not played yet this season as this is the opening weekend for the PAC-12 but the over is in a great spot here. UCLA will feel like they are playing at home today. Why? Well the forecast is high temperatures near 70 with sunny skies and light winds for this one. In a couple days it will be snowing in Boulder Colorado and, undoubtedly, the long-term under trend between these teams has been impacted by weather a few times. These are the types of situations you want to take advantage of because this total was already posted a little on the low side and then moved even lower because the markets just aren't seeing this one properly and are basing it too much on long-term history that, quite frankly, has no bearing on the outcome of this game. The fact is that UCLA was one of the fastest paced offenses in the nation last year. The Bruins want to play quickly. Another factor here is that these were two of the worst pass defenses in the nation last year! The Buffaloes are breaking in a new QB but what better situation than this? At home, ideal weather conditions, and facing a bad defense. The set up is perfect for Colorado to put up plenty of points in this one but UCLA matches them score for score. With this total dropping to the key number of 56 it is now 'go time' with this one. One final note is that we have seen a lot of missed assignment errors by defenses in their first games of the season this year as each conference has gotten underway and I expect more of the same in the PAC-12 today and that will help lead to some big plays for the offenses! 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
|||||||
11-07-20 | Houston +13.5 v. Cincinnati | Top | 10-38 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
AAC Game of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #327 Saturday 10* Top Play Houston Cougars (+) @ Cincinnati Bearcats @ 3:30 ET - I am aware that Houston has some injury issues here but I have had my eyes on this match-up all along and will not hold back here as this play gets my highest rating. Cincinnati is a very strong football team but they are over-valued here. Yes they are 5-0 on the season but 2 of those wins weren't even a challenge as they faced Austin Peay as well as a very bad USF team. In their other 3 games, though the Bearcats dominated the scoreboard, they actually had LESS first downs than their opponent in 2 of those 3 games. Now, even with that said, Cincinnati is absolutely the better team in comparison with the Cougars. However, being favored by nearly 2 touchdowns here will prove to be far too much. I don't expect the Bearcats to go undefeated this season and an upset here would not surprise me. But at the very least I do expect Houston to stay within one score of the Bearcats throughout this game. Yes, the Cougars got throttled by UCF last week but that is one of the scariest offenses to face in college football. The Knights are an absolute machine on offense. As for their other loss it came against BYU and we saw again last night (throttled Broncos AT Boise State!) that this Brigham Young team is a beast this season. In other words, I think the Cougars defense is much improved over last season but they haven't had a chance to fully show that yet based on facing a much tougher schedule than the Bearcats have. As for offense, that has never really been a question mark for the Cougars and they'll have some special plays in the playbook for this one to give Cincy some troubles on defense. I fully believe the Bearcats are challenged in this one and, after winning your first 5 games by an average margin of 27.6 points, suddenly finding yourself in a tight dog-fight can change the mentality of a team real quick. Cincinnati might end up 'pressing' a bit on offense in this one as a result and the Cougars, on the other hand, come into this game very relaxed knowing that no one is giving them a chance in this game. That sets up for a very dangerous underdog and I love having the scrappy dog on my side for this game. 10* HOUSTON |
|||||||
11-07-20 | Manchester United v. Everton OVER 2.5 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach EPL Rotation #200009 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Everton vs Manchester United @ 7:30 AM ET - Both teams are struggling in terms of their form currently. That leads to mistakes. Both teams also hungry for a win so neither will sit back and wait for the game to come to them. Each club will be on the attack. Manchester United has seen their games average 3.7 goals on the season. Everton has seen their games average 3.7 goals on the season as well. That said, I am expecting this one to get to 3 or 4 goals and yet we've got a total of 2.5 to work with. I'll gladly lay the price to have this exceptional line in early action Saturday. 10* OVER the total in Everton |
|||||||
11-06-20 | Miami-FL v. NC State OVER 58.5 | Top | 44-41 | Win | 100 | 23 h 38 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #309 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in NC State Wolfpack vs Miami Hurricanes @ 7:30 ET - The Wolfpack are off a bye week which followed getting embarrassed by their in-state rivals. After losing to the Tar Heels I am sure that NC State will respond here but their defense is not very good at all. The Wolfpack will have to score a bunch of points to hang in this game and I like my chances in that regard but I always see Miami scoring a ton too. Before their ugly loss to North Carolina, the Wolfpack averaged scoring 33.6 points per game in their first 5 games this season. The Hurricanes are off a low-scoring win over Virginia which was followed by a bye week. However, prior to that tight win, the only time the Miami offense really struggled was against one of the best teams (Clemson) in the nation. In their other 4 games this season, the Canes averaged 40.3 points per game and they should enjoy a huge game against the porous Wolfpack defense. NC State is allowing 34.2 points and 447.5 yards per game this season. This one will turn into a back and forth shootout in ideal weather conditions in Raleigh Friday evening. 10* OVER the total in NC State |
|||||||
11-06-20 | Newcastle United v. Southampton OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 12 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach English Premier League Rotation #200005 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Southampton vs Newcastle @ 3:00 PM ET - This total is leaning toward the under because the news is out that Southampton lost Danny Ings to injury. The prolific striker will miss at least a month as his knee injury requires surgery. However, Southampton still has plenty of firepower and, in fact, is averaging 2 goals per match this season! Newcastle has not lost on the road yet this campaign (1 win and 2 draws) so they have some confidence heading into this one. Also, Southampton has allowed nearly 2 goals per game this season so don't be surprised if each club has some success finding the back of the net in this one. This is a classic case where an injury leads to line movement that actually leads to more value. With Ings out, others will step up their game on their home pitch and this one should turn into quite the entertaining affair if you like seeing goals! 10* OVER the total in Southampton |
|||||||
11-05-20 | Packers v. 49ers +6.5 | Top | 34-17 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 55 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #302 Thursday 10* Top Play San Francisco 49ers (+) vs Green Bay Packers @ 8:20 ET - I know the 49ers have injury issues at QB and TE. Also, I am well aware this is a revenge game for the Packers since they lost the NFC Championship here last season. However, this line is getting out of hand. Everyone has been pounding Green Bay and the line is now a 6. When you factor in home field that line is basically saying that the Packers are 9 points better than the 49ers on a neutral field. I strongly disagree. Yes, San Francisco has some injury issues but QB Nick Mullens has gained some valuable experience under center and he wants to make up for his rough effort in primetime when he faced the Eagles not too long ago in a primetime match-up. I also like the fact that the home dog Niners knocked off the Rams in a convincing win as an underdog host just a few weeks ago. San Francisco is a scrappy team and they were 4-3 before the loss at Seattle last week and 2 of those 3 losses were by 5 or less points. Taking a look at Green Bay, they are 5-2 SU on the season but 4 of their 5 wins have come against teams with a combined record of 7-22 SU on the season. I am not totally sold on this Packers team just yet. Remember that they got embarrassed by the Buccaneers this season plus are coming off a loss to the Vikings where they couldn't stop their running back. This was similar to last year's NFC Championship game in which Green Bay couldn't stop Mostert. All the talk in this game is about Garoppolo and Kittle being out for the Niners offense but their defense is better than people realize and I am not totally sold on this Packers team. Look for the 49ers to keep this game very close and possibly even spring the upset as I am expecting Mullens to have a solid game. He has a lot of confidence after playing well when he came in at Seattle Sunday. 10* SAN FRANCISCO |
|||||||
11-05-20 | Utah State v. Nevada OVER 56 | Top | 9-34 | Loss | -108 | 33 h 8 m | Show |
Thursday Thrasher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #307 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Nevada Wolf Pack vs Utah State Aggies @ 7 ET - Perfect weather for this game. Colder weather is finally moving into Reno starting Friday and even will make its way down to Vegas where I live by Saturday. However, Thursday is beautiful weather with sunny skies mild temperatures and light winds for this one. The high temperature forecast for Thursday is an unseasonably warm 75 degrees in Reno. Both teams will be able to take advantage of the phenomenal weather conditions. I know the Aggies numbers on offense look putrid this season but Utah State was done in by facing a pair of tough defenses in the form of Boise State and San Diego State. Nevada is not nearly on that level. The Wolf Pack enter this game off a big win over the struggling division rival. I know UNLV did not score well but that team is in a transition with a new coach and struggling. As for Nevada's other game they did allow 34 points (only 3 were in OT) against a Wyoming team not generally known for explosive production on offense. That said, and catching the Wolf Pack off a win over their instate rival, don't be surprised if Utah State puts up plenty of points here. The issue for the Aggies in this one is their defense is allowing 40 points and 510 yards per game and the Nevada offense is averaging nearly 500 yards plus has scored 37 points (only 6 in OT) in each of its first two games. Utah State will not be able to stop the Wolf Pack here and they have a dynamic passing attack so the Aggies go from facing a run-heavy San Diego State team to a great passing offense and this is a tough transition for the defense. 10* OVER the total in Nevada |
|||||||
11-04-20 | Ohio v. Central Michigan +3 | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Game #296 Wednesday 10* Top Play Central Michigan Chippewas (+) vs Ohio University Bobcats @ 7 ET - The Chippewas did lose some talent from last year's team but this is still a Central Michigan team that went to the MAC Championship Game last season. Also, after losing that game plus losing their bowl came, the Chips couldn't wait to get back on the field. This team is hungry to bounce back from those two season-ending defeats and is ready to prove they can win even without the services of QB Dormady and RB Ward. Ohio also lost their starting QB and he, Rourke, was a huge for this team. They do now have Rourke's younger brother and also UNLV transfer Rogers but either guy is likely to struggle early on. I like the Chippewas handling of the QB replacement situation much better and, keep in mind, this is a Central Michigan team that went a perfect 6-0 SU at home last season and they were blowout wins too! As for the Bobcats, they are getting a little too much respect from the betting markets here in my opinion. I know Solich is a veteran coach but Chippewas coach Jim McElwain has been a head coach at Colorado State and Florida! He has experience in bigger conferences than the MAC and that paid off last season and now he is in his 2nd season with the Chips and I feel that they are under-valued in this spot. Yes they lost some key personnel from last year's team but the same holds true for Ohio University. I am happy to take the home dog here as this line was originally a pick'em. 10* CENTRAL MICHIGAN |
|||||||
11-02-20 | Bucs v. Giants +13 | Top | 25-23 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #274 Monday 10* Top Play New York Giants (+) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 8:15 ET - Of course this goes without saying, and is evident with the big point spread posted on this game, but the Buccaneers are the much better team in this match-up. However, that certainly does not mean they are worthy of laying nearly two touchdowns on the road against a Giants team that is a little better than people give them credit for. In terms of situational value, this is a great spot for New York as they catch Tom Brady and the Buccaneers right before a huge Sunday night game against Drew Brees and the Saints. Not only is that a divisional game for TB, it is also a revenge game as the Bucs lost their season opener at New Orleans this year. Based on records entering this weekend's action, other than the Packers, none of the 6 wins the Buccaneers had were against teams with a winning record. Now they face a Giants team with a poor record too but that's not my point. The point I am making is that be careful giving too much credit to TB based on their early season schedule and, keep in mind, of the 3 tougher teams they placed they won only 1 of those games. They beat GB and lost to NO and the Bears. In Monday's match-up the Giants are going to be tough to put away. They are a respectable defense that has allowed 26 points or less in 5 of 7 games. In terms of putting points on the board, New York has been better in their last 3 games as they have averaged scoring 25 points per game. As good as the Bucs defense is, this is a Tampa Bay team that has allowed at least 20 points in 3 of their last 4 games. I see TB winning this game but I don't see the victory coming by a double digit margin and those numbers I just mentioned support my theory on this one. Additionally, the Giants are well-rested coming off a Thursday night game. They blew a late lead in that one while the Buccaneers were up by just a single score against Vegas last week before they pulled away in convincing fashion late. I like the fact too that QB Daniel Jones led New York to the comeback win (22-3 2nd half) in their win at Tampa Bay last season. The Bucs are better this season but the Giants again won't go away without a fight here and that gets them the cover in this one in my opinion. 10* NEW YORK GIANTS |
|||||||
11-02-20 | Leicester v. Leeds United OVER 2.5 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach English Premier League Rotation #200121 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Leeds United vs Leicester City @ 3:00 PM ET - Each club has had 6 fixtures this season and they have seen those matches average 3.5 goals. Leeds United and Leicester City each averaging 2 goals per match and I would not at all be surprised to see a 2-2 draw (though both teams are gunning hard for the win) in this one as those scoring trends continue. Leicester's Jamie Vardy has 6 goals in his 5 league games! The striker helps lead the way for the attacking style that Leicester City likes to employ. Leeds has been a pleasant surprise early on after being promoted to the Premier League for this season and they've done it with some surprisingly high-scoring games. Leeds United has netted at least 3 goals in 3 of their 6 league games and has only been handed a clean sheet once! As for Leicester, across all competitions 6 of their last 9 games have seen totals of at least 3 goals. We are working with a total of 2.5 here and with the attacking style of Leicester City I like the odds of at least a 2-1 game here. Neither team will be content with just playing for a draw here and with each club likely to net at least 1 goal I see this getting to at least a 2-1 final. Leicester produced a clean sheet against Arsenal in their most recent league fixture but that was preceded by a stretch of 4 league games in which Leicester conceded an average of 2 goals per match. Leicester City will be on the attack throughout this one but concedes a couple along the way too in what should be a spirited match on the pitch at Elland Road. 10* OVER the total in Leeds United |
|||||||
11-01-20 | 49ers v. Seahawks OVER 53 | Top | 27-37 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
NFC West Total of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #269 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers @ 4:25 ET - I am envisioning a shootout here. Yes I am aware of the most recent injury news (both good and bad) for each team. That said, the Niners Jimmy Garoppolo is set to have a huge day against the league's worst secondary in Seattle. As for the Seahawks Russell Wilson, he'll pick apart a Niners secondary that has been impacted by injuries. Yes, the 49ers had a great performance on defense last week but that is because they faced Patriots QB Cam Newton whom, in my opinion, likely spends more time looking at fashion choices and what he'll wear to the next game than actually preparing for opposing defenses. All kidding aside, Newton does indeed have a "few screws loose upstairs" in my opinion. That said, now the Niners face the best offense in the league and this one has all the right ingredients to be very high-scoring. The injury issues have actually helped us because it has kept this total from going higher (at least so far). The fact is I just don't see many stops here. The #1 offense gets it done at home but a surging Niners team with Jimmy G at the helm can also give the league's worst defense problems too. If you like seeing the skills of punters don't watch this game! I expect very few punts! The 49ers seem well past their 2-game slump against the Eagles and Dolphins. Keep in mind, prior to that they had averaged 29 points per game their 1st 3 games this season. They also enter this game averaging 28.5 points their last two games. As for the Seahawks, they are averaging 34 points per game on the season! They are also allowing 29 points per game! I know this is a big divisional showdown but it also sets up well to be a shootout! Beautiful weather in Seattle today too. 10* OVER the total in Seattle |
|||||||
11-01-20 | Arsenal v. Manchester United OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -140 | 16 h 49 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach English Premier League Rotation #200129 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Manchester United vs Arsenal @ 11:30 AM ET - Manchester United appeared down and out after an embarrassing 6-1 defeat against Tottenham. However, they have regrouped and answered the bell as they have been a different club ever since. Manchester United has gone undefeated their last 4 games with 3 wins and 1 draw and I expect their strong play to continue here. One of the keys has been that they have assembled a lot of talent up front and are able to use these players in many variations of attacking styles. Of course that is keep opponents off balance and makes Manchester United very dangerous on the attack. Other than a hard-fought battle with Chelsea (a scoreless draw) they have averaged 3.7 goals per match in their 3 fixtures (including Champions League action) since the ugly loss to Tottenham. Looking at overall scoring in all their matches (in the Premier League and other action too), 8 of their last 9 have totaled at least 3 goals. This is why, even though we have to lay some juice here, this total of 2.5 goals is offering great value. Arsenal has only been held goal-less 3 times in their last 12 matches across all competitions. The odds favor Arsenal getting at least a goal here and yet the odds also favor Manchester United getting the win. As a result, I expect at least a 2-1 final and, with the momentum Manchester United now has, a 3-1 final is not out of the question. That is why, even if Arsenal would be delivered with a clean sheet in this one I could still see an over being the end result as Manchester United could push this total over all by themselves. All factors considered, including their current strong level of play, and this is a great value spot. 10* OVER the total in Manchester United |
|||||||
10-31-20 | Missouri +14 v. Florida | Top | 17-41 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
SEC Game of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #193 Saturday 10* Top Play Missouri Tigers (+) @ Florida Gators @ 7:30 ET - This is a great spot to back a big dog. The Tigers have played a very tough schedule so they are a battle-tested already and building momentum as they are off back to back wins. I also like the fact that Missouri proved they could win no matter the style of play. They beat LSU 45-41 in a high-scoring thriller and then beat Kentucky 20-10 in a low-scoring grinder. I really like the Tigers defense this season. Major improvements on that side of the ball in terms of personnel and coaching and it has paid off. The bigger point totals that Missouri allowed in the first 3 games are actually a bit deceiving. Note that the Tigers have allowed only 365 yards per game. That said, the bigger point totals allowed in the first 3 games certainly had some other variables and are merely helping to give us line value here. I also like the fact that the Gators will be playing their first game in 3 weeks (covid issues) and there could be some rust and lingering issues as a result. After Missouri got back to back wins in this series, Florida exacted double revenge last year but the first downs were only 18-15 in that 23-6 final. Another case where we're getting some extra line value baked into this line. I look for Missouri to be in this game all the way. The Gators lost to A & M in their most recent game and their only other two games this season saw both decided by 16 or less points. The point is that even if factors were normal for this game I could see the Tigers hanging within this 14 point spread all game long but, with extenuating factors, I feel this tough Mizzou defense could keep this team within 7 all game long and the Tigers just might even be in line for a huge upset win late in this one. Grab the big points. This year it is Missouri with revenge on their minds and they have a bye week on deck while Florida has huge game with Georgia on deck! 10* MISSOURI |
|||||||
10-31-20 | Central Florida v. Houston OVER 80.5 | Top | 44-21 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 30 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #177 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Central Florida Knights vs Houston Cougars @ 2 ET - I know this total is a huge one but this game might even hit the century mark. Last week UCF faced Tulane and that game totaled 79 points through 3 quarters. The only reason the scoring slowed down was because the Knights had built a huge lead on the Green Wave and so they took their foot off the gas and the last points were just 6 from Tulane in the entire 4th quarter. Now, in this game you have a point spread of just 3 points and this truly is expected to be a back and forth shootout. The over is 4-1 in Knights games this season. The over is 3-0 in Houston's games this season. Based on the current total and the line on this game the odds makers are expecting a 42-39 UCF win. However, the Knights have actually scored 49 points or more in all but one of their games and Houston can score right along with them. I expect this game to get into the 90s. The Knights are the #1 ranked team in the nation for pace on offense as they average 91.8 plays per game on offense! However, their defense is giving up 482.2 yards per game game and allowed 50 points at SMU in their most recent road game. The Cougars allowed 43 points in their most recent home game and are in real trouble here against a Knights offense averaging 646.8 yards per game! UCF allowed over 700 yards in that SMU game however. This game simply has shootout written all over it with Gabriel (UCF) and Tune (Houston) being very talented QB's facing defenses they can pick apart. The Cougars defensive numbers would be even worse if they didn't face Tulane and Navy this season...two teams that are having issues on offense this year. 10* OVER the total in Houston |
|||||||
10-31-20 | Chelsea -1 v. Burnley | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach EPL Rotation #200153 Saturday 10* Top Play Chelsea Goal Line -1 -110 @ Burnley @ 11 AM ET - Chelsea has had a sluggish start to the season but their prized acquisitions to give them more on the offensive attack are starting to come together. That means the next team in line will have to pay for the frustrating start to the season for the Blues. That said, this situation has all the elements I look for in a very big play. As a result of Chelsea being on the road for this one we get line value. Burnley, though on their home pitch, is likely to prove to be the perfect punching bag for the Blues to take out their frustration. Of course that is why the money line on this is up to as high as a -200 because I am not the only one that sees the likelihood of a Chelsea win here! There are other sharps out there that see the same thing. That said, where the value is here is with the goal line. With this particular match that means laying 1 goal on Chelsea and that gives us a pick'em price in the -110 range. I feel that is the much better value than laying nearly 2 to 1 odds on the money line. That said, of course a 1-goal win for the Blues would result in a push with our bet here but I am quite confident of a blowout in this one. Why? Burnley has totaled just 3 goals in their 5 fixtures this season! Chelsea, on the other hand, is off a 4-0 win in Champions League action and AVERAGING 2 goals per match in Premier League action this season and they averaged 2 goals per game in their road matches last season! Burnley was delivered a clean sheet in their only two matches on their home pitch this season. They will again struggle to score in this one and the road team pulls away for a win by a multiple goal margin. 10* CHELSEA Goal Line -1 goal -110 |
|||||||
10-30-20 | East Carolina v. Tulsa -16.5 | Top | 30-34 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #108 Friday 10* Top Play Tulsa Golden Hurricane (-) vs East Carolina Pirates @ 9 ET - Last season Tulsa outgained East Carolina by a margin of 286 yards and that was on the road! Not only that, this is the first home game of the season for the Golden Hurricane and so I expect them to roll big here. Normally I don't like laying big numbers but this is a rare exception. Not only is this one quite a mismatch in terms of talent level of these two teams, the Pirates have also been hit by covid-19 issues. This has even hit their starting QB but he is expected to play in this game but he and other players have missed practice time and there have been quarantine issues and the list goes on. I know that East Carolina can score some points but the Tulsa defense has been fantastic this season and I expect that to continue here. In terms of common opponents, East Carolina faced UCF and they were at home for that game and still got blasted by 23 points. Tulsa faced the same Knights team and they were on the road for that game and yet got a huge upset win as they won outright by 8 points as a 3-TD underdog. The Golden Hurricane are allowing only 18.3 points per game this season while the Pirates are allowing 37.8 points per game. Defense and the fact that this is Tulsa's first home game of the season will prove to be the difference in this game. East Carolina is allowing 212.8 rushing yards per game and last season the Golden Hurricane ran for 338 yards against the Pirates and that was on the road! 10* TULSA |
|||||||
10-30-20 | Crystal Palace v. Wolverhampton Wanderers +112 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 112 | 6 h 45 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach EPL Rotation #200146 Friday 10* Top Play Wolverhampton Wanderers Money Line +110 vs Crystal Palace @ 4 PM ET - The Wanderers will be a determined group for this one. The Wolves are off a 1-1 draw last weekend which saw Newcastle score the equalizer at the 89th minute. Wolverhampton wants the full 3 points here in the table and are at home and I don't see them being denied. The Wolves are highly motivated as they are just behind Crystal Palace in the standings and that is on goal differential. Of course it is early in the season but the Wolves are well aware of the fact that a draw here still leaves them behind Crystal Palace in the standings. Wolverhampton enters this match as the healthier team and the Wolves had a positive goal differential of 8 goals on their home pitch last season while Crystal Palace had a negative goal differential of -14 goals on enemy pitch last season. Crystal Palace won only 5 of 19 road games last season while Wolverhampton lost only 4 of 19 home games last season. We are early in the new campaign and I feel too much value is being given to Crystal Palace here given the above and note that they are off a win (albeit against Fulham) and the Wolves will prove to be the hungrier club here. 10* WOLVERHAMPTON Money Line +110 |
|||||||
10-29-20 | Colorado State v. Fresno State +2 | Top | 17-38 | Win | 100 | 38 h 17 m | Show |
Thursday Thrasher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #158 Thursday 10* Top Play Fresno State Bulldogs (+) vs Colorado State Rams @ 10 PM ET - The Bulldogs are off an ugly season-opening loss marred by turnovers. However, they were facing a revenge-minded Hawaii team they had beaten 3 straight years. That is not an excuse but simply a fact as they faced a hungry dog that is an improving program and they struggled. Now it is Fresno State that has revenge on their minds as they take on a Colorado State team that defeated them by double digits last season. Edges for the Bulldogs abound in this one as last season they were the better running team plus the better team in terms of defending the run. Also, Colorado State hired the former Boston College coach soon after he was fired after being mostly mediocre for the Eagles. This was not consider a great hire in Fort Collins circles and the pandemic has added to the challenges for him in his first season with the Rams. Spring practice time ended up being much shorter than it would have been and also, in recent weeks, practices leading up to this game have been impacted by some covid-19 issues on the team. That significantly hampers a team that also hasn't played yet while Fresno State does have the edge of having a game under the belt. Additionally, the Bulldogs defense is going to take advantage of the Colorado State offensive line which is an area of concern for the Rams and is what prevents them from establishing a consistent ground attack. Look for the home dog to have the better ground game here and look better on the defensive side of the ball too. Will grab the 2 points in case it is tight but should not need them. 10* FRESNO STATE |
|||||||
10-29-20 | Falcons +3 v. Panthers | Top | 25-17 | Win | 100 | 37 h 8 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #101 Thursday 10* Top Play Atlanta Falcons (+) @ Carolina Panthers @ 8:20 ET - I know it may seem tough to trust the Falcons here after they found a way to lose another late lead but, keep in mind, Atlanta has been playing better since the coaching change. There is a different atmosphere around this team now and the resilience will shine through in this divisional game which is the perfect opportunity for a bounce back. Matt Ryan has been piling up yardage for the Falcons and, though Carolina got the win in the first meeting, they'll struggled to stop a rejuvenated Atlanta team in the rematch. The fact this game is at Carolina just means line value for us because we get a few points to work with too. Also, though the Panthers are off a cover against the Saints last week, they were heavily outgained including by over 100 yards on the ground. Managing to get a cover when you lose the yardage battle on the ground by more than the century mark in an NFL game is nearly a miracle. That said, there will be no miracles here and I expect the better offense (Falcons) in this match-up to rule the day. Keep in mind, Atlanta blew a huge lead against the Cowboys and the Bears to lose those games but that was then and this now. Combining those tight losses with the loss to the Lions this past Sunday however, the point is that 3 of their 6 losses have come by an average margin of just 2 points. In other words, great value with grabbing the points here although I am expecting an upset win for the Falcons in this one. 10* ATLANTA |
|||||||
10-27-20 | Rays +128 v. Dodgers | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #961 Tuesday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (+) vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:08 ET - In this post-season the Rays are a perfect 5-0 when they are off a loss by a margin of 2 or more runs. Also, dating back to the regular season, that run extends to a perfect 8-0 when off a defeat by a multiple run margin. After a 4-2 loss in Game 5, and knowing that these teams have alternated wins and losses throughout this World Series, I have no hesitation in backing Blake Snell and the Rays in this one. Snell helped lead them to a win in Game 2 and threw the ball very well with 9 strikeouts in less than 5 innings of work. Also, the Dodgers are going with a bullpen game here. In my opinion, the Rays bullpen has been the much better pen and LA head coach Dave Roberts often changes guys out too quickly. This is particularly true when you consider the Dodgers don't have as much quality bullpen depth as the Rays do in my opinion. Last, but certainly not least, the projected starter for the Dodgers (Tony Gonsolin) has ugly numbers in this post-season and also is unlikely to go more than an inning or two. Look for this series to reach 7 games! 10* TAMPA BAY |
|||||||
10-26-20 | Bears v. Rams -5.5 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #476 Monday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Rams (-) vs Chicago Bears @ 8:15 ET - The Rams are in the -250 range on the money line. What does that have to do with laying the points here? Well, as you can see from that line, Los Angeles has a high probability of winning this game and the fact is I have had my eyes on this one ever since successfully using the 49ers against LA last week. The Rams are in full-on bounce back mode here and now the point spread has dropped to as low as a -5.5 in some spots as of early game day morning. Now, about that all-important cover...if you are confident the Rams will win you can also be quite confident of the cover. Why is that? Well of the last 12 wins that LA has had, only one (the 3-point win over the Cowboys in Week 1) has come by less than 7 points. Indeed, 92% of the Rams last dozen wins have come by a margin of at least a TD. I fully expect this one will too. I know the Bears have a solid defense but so too does Los Angeles. Also, I really like the LA offense to have a breakout game here. The other two times this season when the Rams were off a game in which they scored 20 points or less they have responded by averaging 33.5 points in their next game. Look for another response here after scoring just 16 last week against Chicago. The Rams have not yet had a breakout game at home as they are averaging just 18.5 points per game at home this season. Look for this to be the game for Jared Goff and company as they are very fired up after last week's poor effort. As for the Bears, I know they have made some positive strides since Nick Foles took over but their only two tough opponents this season both were faced in Chicago. In those two games - versus Indy and TB - the Bears averaged just 15.5 points per game and that included 8 points on a late TD and 2 point conversion against the Colts with under a minute to go in a game that was really all but already decided at that point. In other words, I am not impressed with this Bears offense and now this is the first time this season they are facing a tough team on the road. They won't be able to keep up with the Rams as I expect LA to have a huge game offensively. 10* LOS ANGELES RAMS |
|||||||
10-26-20 | Tottenham Hotspur -1 v. Burnley | Top | 1-0 | Push | 0 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach EPL Rotation #200093 Monday 10* Top Play Tottenham Goal Line -1 -110 @ Burnley @ 4 ET - Tottenham blew a 3-0 lead and had to settle for a 3-3 draw against West Ham in last week's league action. That means the next team in line will have to pay for that frustrating end result for the Hotspur. That said, this situation has all the elements I look for in a very big play. As a result of Tottenham being on the road for this one we get line value. Burnley, though on their home pitch, is likely to prove to be the perfect punching bag for the Hotspur to take out their frustration. Of course that is why the money line on this is up to as high as a -200 because I am not the only one that sees the likelihood of a Tottenham win here! There are other sharps out there that see the same thing. That said, where the value is with the goal line. With this particular match that means laying 1 goal on Tottenham and that gives us a pick'em price in the -110 range. I feel that is the much better value than laying nearly 2 to 1 odds on the money line. That said, of course a 1-goal win for the Hotspur would result in a push with our bet here but I am quite confident of a blowout in this one. Why? Burnley has totaled just 3 goals in their 4 fixtures this season! Tottenham, on the other hand, is AVERAGING 3 goals per match this season! Additionally the Hotspur are 2-0 on the road and won those matches by a combined score of 11 to 3. Burnley was delivered a clean sheet in their only match on their home pitch this season. They will again struggle to score in this one and the road team pulls away for a win by a multiple goal margin. 10* TOTTENHAM Goal Line -1 goal -110 |
|||||||
10-25-20 | Dodgers v. Rays +150 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #960 Sunday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (+) vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:08 ET - The key to my long-term success in this industry has been because of being a contrarian. Yes, Clayton Kershaw was dominant in game one and Tyler Glasnow struggled badly with his command. But, Glasnow also struck out 8 in 4 and 1/3 innings while allowing only 3 hits. I know what he is capable of. When you factor that in with the positive energy in the Tampa Bay clubhouse after last night's amazing win when they were down to their last strike, you have a great situation here. The heavily favored Dodgers are starting to feel the pressure. They showed that even with the way the cracked in the bottom of the 9th last night with the game on the line. Two miscues on the same play - a solid line drive hit to right-center - misplayed by both the center fielder and the catcher. The pressure is all on Los Angeles now with this series tied at 2 games apiece. I will gladly take the underdog value again here as the Rays continue to play loose knowing that nothing is expected of them here. They cherish the underdog role and no one believing in them. That makes for a very dangerous dog and last night's upset win could be the catalyst for a huge upset in this series as well. Only time will tell but I am riding with the Rays to win Game 5 and surprise everyone. 10* TAMPA BAY |
|||||||
10-25-20 | Jaguars v. Chargers OVER 49 | Top | 29-39 | Win | 100 | 7 h 0 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #479 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Chargers vs Jacksonville Jaguars @ 4:25 ET - The Chargers are very close to the bottom ten of the league for team defense as they are allowing 380.6 ypg. The Jaguars are near to the very bottom of the league as they are allowing 414.5 ypg. This one should see plenty of offense as a result. LA is coming off a bye week and healthier then they have been all season. I expect a big game from QB Justin Hebert here. As for the Jaguars QB Gardner Minshew, I know his season numbers are not so impressive but now he faces a team that has one of the worst pass defenses in the league so far this season and he'll take advantage. This game is off the radar of most people because neither one of these teams is trending to the over or the under or this season. However, that is just how I like it as that preserves the line value for us in being able to take the over in a game involving two defenses that have struggled and we'll also have very nice weather conditions for this one. 10* OVER the total in LA Chargers |
|||||||
10-25-20 | Bucs v. Raiders +5.5 | Top | 45-20 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #474 Sunday 10* Top Play Las Vegas Raiders (+) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 4:05 ET - First off, many of you know that I live in Vegas but want everyone to know I am not a Raiders fan. Not saying I am against Las Vegas, I wish them well and hope the franchise is very successful here just like the Golden Knights have been in hockey - also not a fan of that team by the way. So, the point is, there is no favoritism involved with me making this big play. This is purely based on situational value and waiting has paid off in terms of getting a better number too. As of gameday morning, this line is up to a 5.5 as the big news this week in Vegas was the covid testing and impact on the offensive line for the Raiders in this one. However, let me give you the bigger news on this one! Las Vegas enters this game off a bye week while Tampa Bay enters this game off a huge win over previously unbeaten Green Bay. Now many of you will say the home team here is also off a huge win since they won at Kansas City two weeks ago. However, the key here is the bye week and also the fact that the Raiders lost at home in their game that preceded the upset of the Chiefs. Now the even bigger news flash here that seems to be forgotten by some is Las Vegas head coach Jon Gruden has it out for the Buccaneers in this one. Why? He was fired by them after 7 seasons about a decade ago. This Raiders gig is his first foray back into head coaching since that happened. You think he might have a little extra motivation for this game? Ya think?!?! Indeed he has had two weeks to prepare for this one and Las Vegas will be ready here and I feel the covid situation will prove to not be a big deal at all and the O-line will be just fine in this game. Don't be surprised if the Bucs are a little flat after that fantastic effort against the Packers. As for the Raiders, there will be nothing flat about their game on Sunday. They will come ready to play and I expect a huge game for them. Yes the Buccaneers have the better defense in this match-up but they will struggle to come anywhere close to matching the effort they just gave against Green Bay last week. Couple that with the fact that the Raiders offense (399.4 ypg) ranks ahead of the Bucs offense (358.2 ypg) and you have a fantastic home dog situation here. With Tom Brady in Tampa they will continue to be overvalued by the betting markets. We take advantage. 10* LAS VEGAS |
|||||||
10-25-20 | Leicester v. Arsenal OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -135 | 4 h 28 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach English Premier League Rotation #200081 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Arsenal vs Leicester @ 3:15 PM ET - Leicester should have Jamie Vardy back for this one and he is known for being a thorn in the side of Arsenal. However, Arsenal dominates Leicester when they are the host and I am looking for nothing less than a 2-1 final in this one with the home side prevailing. That means we have excellent value here with this total at 2.5 goals because truly it would not be shocking to see Leicester get a pair of goals for Arsenal to put 3 in the back of the net. Leicester is scoring an average of 4 goals per fixture away from home this season. Arsenal has averaged scoring 2 goals per fixture at home this season and last season they averaged nearly 2 goals as well when at home plus Leicester was one of the highest scoring teams when on enemy pitch last season with 32 goals in 19 matches. Given all of the above factors and with each team hungry after coming up empty in their most recent league matches, I look for plenty of scoring here and will back the over with a top play in this one. 10* OVER the total in Arsenal |
|||||||
10-24-20 | Dodgers v. Rays +156 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 156 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #958 Saturday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (+) vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:08 ET - So far in this series the Rays are 0-2 when they start a right-hander and 1-0 when they start a southpaw. Saturday Tampa Bay is starting lefty Ryan Yarbrough. The Dodgers are off a huge win by a 4-run margin yesterday. The last 4 times they have been off a game which they won by a margin of 4 or more runs, Los Angeles has gone 1-3. Don't get me wrong as LA is a great team but I continue to feel they are over-priced here. This is particularly true on Saturday as they are a huge favorite even though it is not a guy like Kershaw or Buehler on the mound. Yes, I know Urias is on a roll right now for the Dodgers but this will be just his 2nd start of this post-season. Looking at his 3 prior post-seasons he was great in 2018 but struggled in 2016 and 2019. Also in the regular season Urias had a 4.67 ERA in his outings away from Dodger Stadium. I know the heart and fight of these underdog Rays and I don't think they are done fighting just yet. Look for them to even the series up tonight on Saturday as their bullpen outduels the Dodgers bullpen as this game goes on. I'll gladly grab the huge plus money being offered on this one. 10* TAMPA BAY |
|||||||
10-24-20 | West Virginia v. Texas Tech +3 | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
Big 12 Game of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #356 Saturday 10* Top Play Texas Tech Red Raiders (+) vs West Virginia Mountaineers @ 5:30 ET - This is a great spot to back a home dog. The Red Raiders are off a bye week which followed 3 straight losses. They are making a change at QB and I like the move and they have had extra time to prepare for this week's game which means its "all systems go" and I expect a jolt of energy for the team. While on paper it looks like the Mountaineers have the much better defense, note that the Red Raiders have faced some tough competition (like Texas) that ran up their stats in a negative way on the defense side of the ball. West Virginia faced a bad Kansas team and a Baylor team with a new coach and struggling with covid-related issues. The Mountaineers also had a game against Eastern Kentucky. Their only truly tough game was against Oklahoma State and they got rolled by two touchdowns. Lubbock, TX is not an easy place to play and that is particularly true for a Big 12 team that is based in West Virginia! The situation is perfect for the Red Raiders and they are hungry for a win and very hungry for a home win too as this is their first home game since they let a huge late lead slip away against rival Texas a month ago. The home team gets back on track here and I am glad to have the added insurance of the 3 points too with this home dog. 10* TEXAS TECH |
|||||||
10-24-20 | Tulane v. Central Florida OVER 71 | Top | 34-51 | Win | 100 | 21 h 12 m | Show |
Top Total Annihilation - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #331 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Central Florida Knights vs Tulane Green Wave @ 2 ET - The Knights are an offensive juggernaut and the Green Wave won't be able to stop them here. UCF averages 90 offensive plays per game and that makes them the fastest team in the nation in terms of pace on offense. The Knights also can't wait for this game because they are off back to back losses. Central Florida, amazingly, scored only 26 points on 455 yards of offense in their lone home game this season. As you can see, the points were not commensurate with the yardage in that one and that is helping to lead to value in this one. Value with a total over that is set in the 70+ range? Yes, value! The most recent game for the Knights saw them lose 50-49 at Memphis! The aforementioned strange home result of 26 points is the only time this season in 4 games that UCF hasn't scored at least 49 points. Now Central Florida takes on a Tulane team that has allowed an average of 43 points per game the last two weeks. The over is a perfect 4-0 in the last 4 Green Wave games. The over is 3-1 in UCF's 4 games this season and that lone exception was a strange result for sure. The story line here is that Tulane has a powerful ground game (even without RB Tyjae Spears) and the Knights have a potent passing game. When you match that up with the defenses this one spells trouble on both sides because UCF can not stop the run and Tulane can not stop the pass. UCF will again score at least 49 here and Tulane has averaged 36.4 points per game this season. The numbers are truly off the charts here with the Knights offense averaging 636.2 yards per game but their D giving up 517.8 yards per game. Yes their games are averaging 1,154 yards this season. That is crazy but true. When you factor that in along with the fact that UCF is off back to back losses, you have the ideal situation because the Knights won't take their foot off the gas here but they can not stop anyone on the other side of the ball and I expect the Green Wave to score quite well too. That should result in this game getting into the 80s. If you like seeing the scoreboard lit up this is the place to be on Saturday afternoon! 10* OVER in Central Florida |
|||||||
10-24-20 | Manchester City v. West Ham United OVER 3.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach English Premier League Rotation #200113 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in West Ham United vs Manchester City @ 7:30 AM ET - Beautiful set-up here as Manchester City has scored at least 4 goals in each of their last 5 visits to West Ham at the London Stadium. That is the Hammers new home and it has suited these visitors very well. However, West Ham does come into this game with plenty of confidence and might be able to score right along with Manchester City in this one. West Ham rallied from a 3-goal deficit last weekend to earn a draw with Tottenham. In terms of goal-scoring ability, the Hammers have now scored at least 3 goals in 3 straight games! That is why I am projecting a very high-scoring fixture in this one. West Ham, based on current level of play and with being on their home pitch, has plenty of confidence here. However, the Hammers won't be able to stop Manchester City as their long-term dominance against West Ham is likely to continue. After all, that is why they are such a pricey favorite in this one. The Hammers scored 4 in their most recent home game and I am expecting at least 2 goals from each side in this one and then eventually Manchester City pulls away for a 4-2 or 4-3 type of victory which is why I am happy to grab the plus money being offered at the over 3.5 goals in this one. 10* OVER the total in West Ham United |
|||||||
10-23-20 | Dodgers v. Rays +142 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #956 Friday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (+) vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:08 ET - The Dodgers, of course, are a fantastic team. But they are also a public team and, as a result, the odds makers have that adjustment baked into their numbers. What a mean here is that to get a balanced book the have to overprice the Dodgers. The simple fact is Los Angeles has no business opening up as a -160 favorite in this match-up. I am not saying LA won't find a way to win this game, I am just saying the value is clearly with the underdog in this one and I will be betting them again here in Vegas where I live. The fact is that the Rays seem to have the better bullpen in this match-up and they also now have the added edge of being the designated home team for this match-up. Though Walker Buehler has been strong in this post-season, so too has Charlie Morton. Also, Morton is the type of hurler that can keep this Dodgers lineup off balance with his repertoire of pitches. Guys that are simply hard throwers like Tyler Glasnow have shown to have more trouble against the Dodgers but guys who are a little more crafty on the mound, like Blake Snell, prove to be another challenge altogether. Morton is 3-0 with an 0.57 in this post-season and, overall, 5-0 with a 0.70 ERA in his 5 post-season starts with the Rays. Considering that as well as their stellar bullpen and the fact that some key hitters broke slumps in Game 2, there is no way in the world I am not going to back them in a +140 price range here. 10* TAMPA BAY |
|||||||
10-23-20 | Illinois v. Wisconsin -18.5 | Top | 7-45 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #388 Friday 10* Top Play Wisconsin Badgers (-) vs Illinois Illini @ 8 ET - It is RARE for me to lay this many points and the situation has to be special for me to ever do it. We have a VERY special situation here. The Badgers were 6-0 last season and destroying everyone they encountered before a trip to Illinois for their 7th game of the season. Wisconsin was a 4 TD favorite in that game and they LOST! It was absolutely one of the MOST unlikely upsets of the entire CFB season. Coming into this season the Badgers are expected to be at the top of the Big Ten West while the Illini are projected to be at the very bottom of the Big Ten West. This game is a complete mismatch. I am fully aware of the QB injury for the Badgers Coan but Mertz is a highly skilled QB that will have very little trouble going against this weak Illini defense. The last two times that the Illini visited Camp Randall they lost by an average of 37 points per visit. Wisconsin's last 3 season openers have been won by an average margin of 43 points! Normally I don't lay big points because of the fear of backdoor covers or a team taking their foot off of the gas late. That is not going to be the case here. The Badgers don't want to just win this game, they want to pulverize Illinois in this game. Though Wisconsin has some injury issues at the skill positions on offense they still will have plenty of firepower and their ground game will push the Illini defense all over the field as the Badgers O-line bullies the Illinois D-line. The strength of the Badgers is their defense and I can't see Illinois scoring much at all in this game yet the posted total on this game opened up at 52.5 points! What does that tell you? The odds makers are expecting Wisconsin to score plenty in this game and I concur. Badgers roll by at least 4 TDs in my opinion. 10* WISCONSIN |
|||||||
10-23-20 | Leeds United v. Aston Villa OVER 3 | Top | 3-0 | Push | 0 | 5 h 25 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach English Premier League Rotation #200085 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Aston Villa vs Leeds United @ 3:00 PM ET - This fixture features two clubs that have surprised early this season. As a result, plenty of confidence for both clubs and I expect this to result in a rather high-scoring fixture. Adding to the value here is the fact that Leeds United has some injuries to the defense but has also seen some firepower recently return at the other end of the pitch with the return of Pablo Hernandez. He has performed well against Aston Villa (involved in 6 goals in 7 starts against them) and could be a key in keeping Leeds United in this match. I know Aston Villa has not allowed many goals this season but Leeds United will challenge them and has played well against quality competition early on in this campaign. Look for plenty of goals here as Aston Villa has scored an average of 3 goals per fixture this season. Leeds United matches have averaged totaling 3.6 goals. This total did move from an opener to a 2.5 to a 3 and of course I would prefer to have the 2.5 but the move is justified and the situation still demands my highest rating plus now we're not laying big juice at the over 3 goals like we would have been at 2.5 goals. I like the value from that viewpoint! 10* OVER the total in Aston Villa |
|||||||
10-22-20 | Giants v. Eagles -3.5 | Top | 21-22 | Loss | -109 | 74 h 34 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #304 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (-) vs New York Giants @ 8:20 ET - This line made a major move on Monday around 2 PM ET (11 AM PT here in Vegas where I live). I watched the screens light up as the Eagles line got pounded down. The thinking process here by the betting markets must be that the odds makers have no idea about injury situations and don't watch the games. They saw Miles Sanders get hurt and they were aware of the Zach Ertz injury. Yet they still posted this line near a -7 which is where it belongs. But now due to false market perception this line has been driven down to a 3.5 which is basically saying the Giants and the Eagles are equal teams if they played on a neutral field. I vehemently disagree with this assessment. Note that as good as Zach Ertz is, the fact remains he has averaged only 16 receiving yards per game the past 3 weeks! He has NOT been a huge component of the Eagles offense in recent weeks. Also there is a decent chance the Eagles will get WR DeSean Jackson back for this one plus Alshon Jeffery even has an outside shot at playing too. Certainly the Sanders injury hurts but the Eagles have some other running backs they will make use of here. Their comeback against the Ravens (would have tied it if not for a late failed two point conversion) did not feature Sanders or Ertz. After going toe to toe with the Ravens now the Eagles take on a Giants team that barely hung on for their first win of the season. New York had started the year 0-5 and other than one 34 point outburst against a horrific Cowboys defense, the Giants averaged only 13.4 points per game in their other 5 games and did not top 20 in any of those games. Conversely, the Eagles have scored at least 23 points in 4 straight games and have averaged 26 points during this stretch. Again, Ertz has played little role in this too. Just look at his stats if you don't believe me. The Eagles have swept the Giants each of the past two seasons and the average margin of victory in those 4 games is 12 points. Eagles hungry for a win, Giants just got their first, Wentz starting to look better (even against powerful Ravens) and Jones for the Giants is still a very young QB trying to find his way at the NFL level. Jones now faces a dangerous defense in terms of putting pressure on opposing quarterbacks with a powerful defensive line. Grab the line value with the small home favorite that is very hungry to get back into the win column and will take care of business against a division rival once again here just like the other recent meetings. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
|||||||
10-21-20 | Rays +140 v. Dodgers | Top | 6-4 | Win | 140 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
NOTE: I suggest making this money line play with ACTION on BOTH pitchers. Game of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #953 Wednesday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (+) vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:08 ET - I mention action on both pitchers because the Dodgers are making this a bullpen game. Even though the Rays are expected (and very likely) to go with Blake Snell, if they decided to match the Dodgers and go with a bullpen game too I still like this play! I like the Rays bullpen over the Dodgers bullpen. In any event, lets talk about the expected starters for this game. The Rays Snell has a 2.88 ERA and has held hitters to a .225 batting average against in his 7 career post-season appearances (2019 and 2020). We got burned last night here with the Rays. But I come right back with them here because, unlike Tyler Glasnow (hard-thrower with great stuff but struggles with location and makes too many mistake pitches), Snell is more of a savvy hurler who has more than twice as many career regular season starts and won't make the same mistakes Glasnow did in Game 1. I also was wrong about Clayton Kershaw last night as he came out and dominated. People make mistakes. I made one yesterday. But I feel strongly this play will be "spot on" and love backing the Rays here as the Dodgers are expected to start Tony Gonsolin. He posted a 9.95 ERA in his two appearances against the Braves in the NLCS and likely won't last long here and that will result in two much being asked of this Dodgers bullpen. That is why I don't even care who starts here. Without a strong hurler like Kershaw or Walker Buehler (being saved for Game 3) getting the start for the Dodgers here, I feel that heavily favors the Rays. I like the Tampa Bay bullpen more plus Snell is 99% likely to get this start anyway (again, I am suggesting you bet this with action on both pitchers). The Dodgers have only seen Snell once in his career and he struck out 4 in 2 perfect innings against them. Having not seen much of him, and considering the quality hurler he is, this is a big edge for Snell here. Also, the Rays are on a 6-0 run (including 3-0 in this post-season) when off a loss by a multiple-run margin. They stay perfect here! 10* TAMPA BAY RAYS |
|||||||
10-20-20 | Rays +158 v. Dodgers | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 55 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #951 Tuesday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (+) vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:09 ET - The Rays are offering tremendous underdog line value in Game 1 of this series. Of course Clayton Kershaw still carries a certain reputation with him but he has been dealing with some back issues and gave up 4 earned runs in his most recent start. The Dodgers also used a lot of energy in coming all the way back from a 3-1 deficit against the Braves. Give them credit for sure but the fact they lost 3 of 4 before rallying the troops and the fact they scored only 3.5 runs per game in the final two games of the series has me liking the big dog Rays in this one. Tampa Bay has won 9 of 14 games in the post-season and were the only team in the regular season (other than the Dodgers) to have less than 23 losses. The Rays had 20 and the Dodgers had 17. For sure the two best teams made it to the World Series but Tampa Bay is not being given much respect with this line. Tyler Glasnow is a hard-throwing righty and though the Dodgers had some success against him that was back in 2018 and those 3 bullpen appearances were the only time they have seen him. He is a much different pitcher now. With Kershaw still not seeming to be his normal self, I feel there is great value in fading him here. 10* TAMPA BAY |
|||||||
10-19-20 | Cardinals +1.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 38-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #275 Monday 10* Top Play Arizona Cardinals (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 8:15 ET - The line on this game prior to the Dak Prescott injury was Dallas -3 and it was moving toward -3.5 for sure. But then he got hurt on Sunday so the game came off the board and when it went back up it was Arizona -3. Now all week long I have patiently waited for this one as I knew "America's Team" would get their love from the betting markets and that we'd eventually get the Cardinals as a dog in this one. Sure enough the line has swung back almost to where it was with Prescott at the controls! We are now seeing 1.5 show up this morning on the Cowboys and, in all likelihood it could even climb higher. However, this is the time of day I post my picks here generally so, for me, it is now "go time" with this one. Keep in mind, the last thing the Cowboys could afford was an injury to Prescott. Why? Well because their offense is the only thing they have going for them. This team's defense is atrocious and now led by Andy Dalton at QB. He had some good years in Cincinnati for sure. The key word there however is "had". Note that in Dalton's final season there he threw nearly as many INT's as TD's and had his lowest completion percentage since his rookie season and had a career high in fumbles. Why do you think the Bengals were ready to move on? And, keep in mind, this is the Bengals we're talking about folks! The Cardinals defense will have their ears pinned back for this one (on the attack like angry dogs) and they are allowing only 20.4 points per game. As for the Cowboys defense, they have allowed 40 points per game their last 4 games and have allowed at least 34 points in all 4 of their games since a season opening 20-17 loss to the Rams. Dallas barely held on to beat the Giants last week and their only win so far this season was their miraculous 1 point win against Atlanta earlier this season. Keep in mind, Atlanta and the Giants were a combined 0-10 entering this weekend's action and the Cowboys defense allowed 73 points in those 2 victories. Unless Dallas can pull a rabbit out of the hat on defense I see them struggling against a Kliff Klingsbury coached team with Kyler Murray at QB. Both those guys have Texas roots and Murray has fond memories of games played here in Big D. In fact, Murray is 6-0 all time in games played here including 3 state championships here when he played for Allen High School and also he won a Big 12 title game here too when he was with OU. I would take Murray over Dalton all day every day and it is hard to dispute the importance of the QB in this day and age of pass-happy pro football! Plus he is a dangerous runner too. Overall the Cardinals are the better team and this Dallas defense can't stop anyone and that will end up putting a lot of pressure on Dalton in this one to try and trade scores with the Cards. I don't see that happening. 10* ARIZONA |
|||||||
10-19-20 | Wolverhampton Wanderers v. Leeds United OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 46 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach EPL Rotation #200053 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Leeds United vs Wolverhampton Wanderers @ 3 ET - This match is expected to play out with an aggressive attacking style. That is just the nature of this fixture with the way these two teams are coming into it. That said, I also certainly like the fact that Wolverhampton has underachieved early this season and comes into this match extra hungry and looking to make a statement on enemy pitch. Wolverhampton has allowed 1.8 goals per match this season and Leeds United has allowed 2 goals per match thus far on the season. I absolutely would not be surprised to see each team get to 2 markers here but at the very least we should see a 2-1 game. I don't see either team producing a clean sheet in this one. That said, I also like the fact that Leeds has averaged 2.3 goals per match this season but Wolverhampton is coming into this one desperate for points in the table after a disappointing start to the campaign. Leeds will come out with an attacking style and the Wanderers will be forced to mimic that if they want to have a shot to keep up in this match. That said, an O/U of just 2.5 goals on this fixture is truly an excellent and I won't hesitate to invest in this one. 10* OVER the total in Leeds United |
|||||||
10-18-20 | Braves +129 v. Dodgers | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
*ACTION on PITCHERS for BOTH teams* Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #909 Sunday 10* Top Play Atlanta Braves Money Line (+) @ Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:15 ET - Similar to the other series, look for the team that rallied to come all the way back to lose in Game 7. The Astros rallied from a 3-0 deficit to force a Game 7 in the ALCS but then lost to the Rays. In this one. the Dodgers have rallied from a 3-1 deficit to force a Game 7 here in the NLCS and, similarly, I look for them to now lose to the Braves. Note that Atlanta is a perfect 5-0 the last 5 times they have entered a game off back to back losses. This is great underdog line value here considering that the Braves also were 8-1 in the post-season prior to these back to back losses. I like their lineup and they will bounce back here no matter who the Dodgers throw at them. That is undecided at the moment but what is expected is that the Braves will start Ian Anderson. The young right-hander has held opponents to a .113 batting average in his 3 post-season starts. In the regular season, Anderson held opponents to a .172 batting average in his 6 starts. The guy is very tough to hit and that continues here. Anderson has 63 strikeouts in his 48 innings of combined regular season and post-season work. My gut tells me the Braves bats bounce back here and Anderson pitches extremely well and deep into this game and that mean only the best Braves arms will be used once the rookie hurler exits the game. Grab the underdog value here! 10* ATLANTA |
|||||||
10-18-20 | Texans v. Titans OVER 53 | Top | 36-42 | Win | 100 | 5 h 42 m | Show |
AFC South Total of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #257 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tennessee Titans vs Houston Texans @ 1 ET - The Titans have scored an average of 35.3 ppg their last 3 games. The Texans are a new team after firing coach Bill O'Brien and with Romeo Crennel taking over head coaching duties on an interim basis. Even though they threw 2 picks in last week's win (their first victory of the season) the Texans still managed 30 points and piled up a ton of yardage. However, this is still a Houston team that allowed an average of 31.5 ppg their first 4 games of the season and I expect them to struggle to contain a potent Tennessee offense on the road. The issue for the Titans (and what is helping gives us value here) is that their defense is worse than what has reflected on the scoreboard. They have benefited based on some key turnovers but that stuff usually doesn't go on forever and, now, facing a newly-inspired Texans team is likely to cause issues for the D of Tennessee. The Titans are allowing 261 passing yards per game and Houston is throwing for 275 passing yards per game. This total opened up in the mid-50s for a reason and I love the fact that it has dropped to the low 50s and feel we have great line value here with this number lower than it should be. Both teams should have no problem moving the ball up and down the field here. Yes, the Texans held the Jags to only 14 points last week but they allowed nearly 300 yards passing! Houston was helped by 2 Jacksonville fumbles. The Titans will score plenty here but will struggle to slow down the Texans. 10* OVER the total in Tennessee |
|||||||
10-18-20 | West Ham United v. Tottenham Hotspur OVER 2.75 | Top | 3-3 | Win | 100 | 17 h 29 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach English Premier League Rotation #200073 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tottenham vs West Ham @ 11:30 AM ET - Tottenham enters this game off a 6-1 win over Manchester United in the most recent Premier League match for the Hotspur. Tottenham also had a recent UEFA Europa League Qualifying match and exploded for 7 goals in that win! Plenty of confidence for the Hotspur here but the same holds true for West Ham. They were without their manager (Covid-19) and yet responded with a pair of wins in Premier League matches by a combined score of 7-0. Though West Ham managed a clean sheet in each of those fixtures, they will face a much tougher challenge here with the way Tottenham has been finding the back of the net. That said though, can you really expect the Hotspur to stop West Ham here? The answer is absolutely not as they made some great adjustments without their manager and were able to attack better. Additionally, West Ham also had 2 recent matches in English Carabao Cup action that each reached a total of 5 or more goals. In terms of Premier League action only, thus far this season in the table, one can see that Tottenham has averaged 3 goals in their fixtures and West Ham has averaged 2 goals in their fixtures. That said, a 3-2 final actually sounds about right here as Tottenham is about a -170 money line favorite with good reason. Look for this one to be higher-scoring than one would have normally expected as West Ham will put pressure. 10* OVER the total in Tottenham |
|||||||
10-17-20 | Astros v. Rays -115 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #908 Saturday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (-) vs Houston Astros @ 8:37 ET - I will add today's keys below the following excerpts from what I wrote in a recent analysis on this match-up: Yes the markets will give support to the Astros here because they were down 3-0 in this series and then rallied to bounce back to win 3 straight games. However, the Astros got into the playoffs despite being 2 games under .500 in the regular season. That including a horrible 14 games under .500 in games away from Minute Maid Park this season. Not only that, Tampa Bay was 20 games above .500 on the year and they are now taking it to an Astros team that went 4-13 in the regular season when facing teams with a winning record. The Rays are seeking revenge from getting knocked out of the playoffs by Houston last year and, despite blowing a 3-0 series lead, they can still accomplish that objective with a win tonight. Also, Tampa Bay went 34-12 their last 46 games of the regular season. Only once during that 46-game stretch did the Rays lose 3 straight games. They responded with a resounding 11-1 win to end that streak. This one won't be that easy but I like Morton over McCullers in Game 7 just like we saw in Game 2. McCullers pitched well overall in that game but he continues to struggle with too many homers allowed in this post-season. Also, in the regular season, he struggled badly in games away from Minute Maid Park. The Rays close out the series here with a big Game 7 win at a very fair money line price! 10* TAMPA BAY |
|||||||
10-17-20 | Texas A&M v. Mississippi State +5.5 | Top | 28-14 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #143 Saturday 10* Top Play Mississippi State Bulldogs (+) vs Texas A & M Aggies @ 4 ET - No one will want Mississippi State here. After all, everyone just watched them turnover the ball like crazy and score just 2 points against Kentucky. That said, the Bulldogs have no chance here, right? After all, they are facing an Aggies team that just beat Florida and outgained the Gators by a substantial margin in doing so. In typical contrarian fashion, I actually like Mississippi State a ton in this spot. The Bulldogs beat LSU by double digits in their season opener but then laid an egg against Arkansas the very next week. As a result, there is great line value as the Bulldogs want to atone for Razorbacks defeat here as that has been their only home game so far this season. Texas A & M is 2-1 this season but they barely squeaked by Vanderbilt even though they were a 30 point favorite in that game. In fact, each of the Aggies two wins this season have been by 5 or less points. In between those two wins was a blowout loss at Alabama and the Aggies scored just 24 points in that game while Ole Miss put up 48 on the Crimson Tide the very next week. Mississippi State has revenge here for an ugly loss last year which followed 3 straight Bulldogs wins in this series. Historically the Aggies are not known for traveling well nor for coming up big in back to back big games. The home dog, as a result, is absolutely the way to go in this one. The Bulldogs defense allowing just 4.24 yards per play while Texas A & M allowing 6.75 yards per play. That is a big difference in defensive efficiency and certainly is not being properly accounted for by the betting markets in my opinion. 10* Mississippi State |
|||||||
10-17-20 | Southampton v. Chelsea OVER 3 | Top | 3-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 20 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach English Premier League Rotation #200041 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 3 goals -103 in Chelsea vs Southampton @ 10 AM ET - Chelsea struggled to stop opponents early this season but then fixed that with the addition of goalie Edouard Mendy. However, he will not be available for this one due to injury. That means goalkeeping duties fall to a struggling Kepa Arrizabalaga or 38-year old back-up Willy Caballero. Either way I like my chances for Southampton (known as road warriors last season) to at least get 1 (if not 2) into the back of the net here. Keep in mind Southampton was one of the top teams in the league last season on the road. They earned 31 points in the table in road fixtures (#3 in the league!) compared to only 21 points earned at home. Southampton averaged scoring 1.6 goals on the road and Chelsea scored an average of 1.6 goals on their home pitch. The key here is not only Mendy being out but Chelsea's attackers are getting healthy. Also, Southampton knows they need to attack and get shots on goal to take advantage of Mendy's absence. So this game will be played with more of an aggressive attacking style. Prior to Mendy helping Chelsea to post a clean sheet in their most recent fixture, Chelsea did allow an average of 2 goals in their first 3 matches this season. That said, a 3-2 final sounds about right here as Chelsea is a 2 to 1 money line favorite with good reason. Look for this one to be higher-scoring than one would have normally expected. 10* OVER 3 goals -103 in Chelsea |
|||||||
10-16-20 | Astros v. Rays OVER 8 | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #901 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros @ 6:07 ET - All 5 games in this series have totaled 7 or less runs. In typical contrarian fashion, that has me on the over in Game 6! The fact is I love this pitching match-up for an over. Yes, it was also Framber Valdez vs Blake Snell in Game 1 and that was a 2-1 game. However, that score doesn't say anything about the way that start played out for each of these hurlers. There were many scoring opportunities ruined by multiple double plays and runners caught stealing. There also were plenty of hard hit outs and now stronger contact is likely in this match-up because these hitters just faced these pitchers on Sunday. Also, the bullpen work has been solid in this series but the hitters have seen more and more of the same arms now too and they've started to do a little damage against relievers too. That said, I expect plenty of runs early, often, and throughout this contest as the set-up is truly ideal for a breakout game for both lineups in this one! 10* OVER the total in Tampa Bay |
|||||||
10-16-20 | SMU v. Tulane OVER 64.5 | Top | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #107 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tulane Green Wave vs SMU Mustangs @ 6 ET - I am going to take advantage of the line move here. With season ending injuries to Mustangs WR Roberson and RB McDaniel we've now seen this total drop down to a 64.5 from a 69 and I love the value here. Keep in mind SMU has a very deep WR group and also a ton of talent at the RB position. Sure they would love to have Roberson and McDaniel but they will get along just fine without them as long as QB Buechele is under center as he continues to light up defenses. Buechele should certainly have no problems with this Green Wave defense. Tulane allowed 476 yards in last week's trouncing at the hands of Houston and now face an SMU offense that has averaged nearly 400 yards passing per game in their match-ups with FBS competition. As for the Mustangs defense, I do not trust them and that is why I am big on the over in this one. Tulane has a talented offense, particularly when at home, and the Southern Methodist defense has allowed at least 24 points in all 3 of its FBS games but that easily could me more. The Mustangs have been fortunate because when you look at the yardage stats in those games the fact is that SMU is struggling to get stops. The Green Wave are averaging 37 points per game this season and the Mustangs are averaging 44 points per game this season. If you like seeing the scoreboard lit up this is the place to be on Friday night! 10* OVER in Tulane |
|||||||
10-15-20 | Dodgers v. Braves OVER 9 | Top | 2-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #977 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:08 ET - This total opened up at a 9.5 and quickly moved to a 9. In typical contrarian fashion, I am fading the move and going with the over here. The Dodgers turned the screws on the Braves by hammering the Atlanta bullpen in the bottom of the 9th of Game 2. I know LA still ultimately fell short by a run in that game but that was a key difference maker. The Dodgers carried that momentum right into Game 3 when they exploded in the first inning for a record-setting 11-run frame. The Dodgers aren't going to slow down here against Bryse Wilson (5.91 ERA and .306 BAA in his MLB career). In fact, Wilson is unlikely to pitch deep into this game as the Braves are treating this is a bullpen game. Yes that is the same bullpen that has been involved with allowing a ton of runs to the Dodgers the last two games. In other words, this is not a good set up for the Braves pitching staff. However, with Clayton Kershaw dealing with back spasms as well as the fact that the Braves will be facing a southpaw starting pitcher for a 2nd straight game, I would not be surprised to see Atlanta match the Dodgers run for run early on this one. Maybe the Dodgers pull away late but I am not laying the big price on the money line or the run line and feel that expecting double digits in runs scored in this one is absolutely the value play in Game 4 of the NLCS. 10* OVER the total in Atlanta |
|||||||
10-15-20 | Georgia State v. Arkansas State OVER 72.5 | Top | 52-59 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
Thursday Thrasher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #105 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Georgia State Panthers @ 7:30 ET - Georgia State averages 81.5 plays on offense per game. That is one of the fastest paces in the nation. Arkansas State averages 6.47 yards per play on offense which ranks them in the top 15 of the nation. I know this is a big total posted on this game but it is absolutely justified in a game that I project to get into the 80s. The Panthers have a solid ground game and play fast. Remember that Arkansas State allowed 52 points to a Coastal Carolina team that also has dangerous runners. On the flip side, the Red Wolves have a very dangerous passing attack and the Georgia State secondary will absolutely struggle as the Arkansas State receivers are big and talented. The Red Wolves just played their first home game and put up 50 points! Also, they scored 35 points in an upset at Kansas State earlier this season. The Panthers also rolling with confidence here after scoring 49 points in their most recent game. The last two meetings between these teams each totaled more than 85 points and, with perfect weather expected in Jonesboro AR this evening, this one gets into that range as well. 10* OVER the total in Arkansas State |