Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-06-17 | Warriors v. Jazz +5.5 | Top | 102-91 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 25 m | Show |
ABC Blowout ATS Rout - Rickenbach NBA Saturday 10* Top Play Utah Jazz (+) vs Golden State Warriors @ 8:30 ET - The Jazz went 29-12 at home in the regular season. Though they're down 0-2 in this series they certainly showed plenty of fight at Golden State and did get the cover in each game. Some of the adjustments that Utah made in the 2nd half of that game certainly paid off and the Jazz were able to close within as close as 6 in the fourth quarter. Grabbing some momentum from those adjustments as well as the fact that they now get a game on their home floor, I would not be surprised to see Utah get the outright upset here but certainly there is value with the generous points being offered. Even though he's listed as probable, Draymond Green's knee injury is something that the Warriors can afford to be careful with and rest him some as they are working toward a long playoff march. As for the Jazz, there is no time to waste and, though George Hill is questionable for this game, I would be surprised if he is not back out there running the offense for Utah in this one and that will be a big plus. Either way, I am grabbing the home dog here. The Jazz are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games versus the Warriors. Also, Utah is 8-3 ATS (and SU!) this season when off of a loss by a margin of 10 points or more. Tonight I look for the Jazz to improve to an incredible 8-2 ATS in this post-season. Look for the Warriors to drop to 2-7 ATS this season in games played against teams that allow an average of 98 points or less per game. 10* UTAH JAZZ plus the points Saturday evening. |
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05-06-17 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 1-9 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 8:10 ET - I lost with this play yesterday as the Dbacks had 5 runs very early in the game but then it settled into a surprisingly low-scoring affair the rest of the way and fell just short. I won't hesitate to come right back with the over in Colorado today. The temperatures will be very warm today in Denver so it will be a mild evening at Coors Field AND the wind will be blowing out. It is the perfect set-up for a slugfest to develop in the thin Mile High air tonight. The Rockies send Tyler Anderson to the mound and he's an awful 1-3 with a 7.71 ERA this season and that is even though 4 of his 6 starts have been away from hitter-friendly Coors Field this season. He'll also be facing Arizona for the 4th time in less than a year and the results have not been good. Anderson has compiled a 7.80 ERA in his 3 starts against the Diamondbacks with an ugly 2.07 WHIP. That's right, the Rockies southpaw is allowing 2 baserunners per inning in his outings versus Arizona in his career. Pat Corbin gets the starts for the Dbacks here and he had a great start versus the Rockies last weekend but that was in Arizona. Now he faces them in Colorado where he got rocked for 6 earned runs in 4 and 1/3 innings last season. In fact, prior to the strong start versus the Rockies last weekend, Corbin had allowed 5 homers in his last 2 starts versus Colorado. The over is 6-2 this season in Rockies home games with a money line in a range of -125 to +125. The over is also a perfect 4-0 this season in Arizona's Saturday games. More of the same this Saturday. 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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05-06-17 | Penguins +155 v. Capitals | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 33 m | Show |
PA Insider - Rickenbach NHL Saturday 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Penguins Money Line (+) @ Washington Capitals @ 7:15 ET - The Capitals will be the popular choice here. After all, the Caps are down 3-1 in the series, the Penguins are without Sidney Crosby, and Washington outshot Pittsburgh by a significant margin the Game 4 loss. However, the key is that the quality shots are going to the Pens and that has been a key difference maker in this series. That is why an elite goalie like the Capitals Braden Holtby has struggled while a goalie known for past post-season disappointments, Marc-Andre Fleury, has flourished. Until the Caps start elevating the puck more with their shots and getting real solid quality chances the struggles will continue. That said, time is running out and I look for the Pens to make the most of this opportunity to close this one out on the road. Keep in mind the Capitals have lost 4 of their last 5 home games dating back to the regular season while the Penguins are on an overall 7-2 run and have averaged scoring nearly 4 goals per game during this hot streak! Both teams have strong records this season when playing with 2 days of rest between games. However, the Capitals are really frustrated and will be clutching the sticks a little too tight tonight while the Penguins can play loose and relaxed and look to close this one out on the road knowing they still would have two more chances after this too! The Pens are on a 7-3 run in 2nd round playoff games. The Caps are on an 6-11 run in 2nd round playoff games. The Pens are a dangerous big dog here and it's no secret that sharp money is what hit the Penguins here as this line originally was at the -200 level for Washington. 10* Top Play PITTSBURGH PENGUINS money line Saturday evening |
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05-05-17 | Spurs v. Rockets -4.5 | Top | 103-92 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 26 m | Show |
Western Conf Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA 10* Top Play Houston Rockets (-) vs San Antonio Spurs @ 9:30 ET - After getting embarrassed in the 4th quarter at San Antonio Wednesday night, the Rockets will be ready to respond here. The Spurs found that their small ball lineup worked well even without Tony Parker on the floor after he got hurt early in the 4th quarter. Even though Parker is now out for the post-season, the Spurs still have others that can step in and maintain the small ball attack in Game 3. However, what is unlikely to happen is for the Spurs to again shoot 54.5% from the field. That said, the Spurs could be in trouble willing to play a game where the winning team is in the 120s. The fact is that even though this series is 1-1, the way it's being played thusfar certainly favors the Rockets. Houston loves to get involved in high-scoring shootouts and they'll hold the upper hand in this one at home. The Rockets had won 6 of 7 before the loss Wednesday. The Spurs barely got by a Memphis team that was without Tony Allen in round one and then San Antonio got pounded in Game 1 of this series before responding in Game 2. One game certainly does not sure all that ailed the Spurs and there will be points in this game where they'll certainly miss the veteran leadership of their floor general, Tony Parker. The Spurs were on a 5-8 ATS run before the big win in Game 2. The Rockets are 25-7 SU (and 21-11 ATS) this season when off of a game where they allowed 115 points or more. Bounce back time for the Rockets here. 10* HOUSTON |
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05-05-17 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
Total Crusher - Rickenbach Friday MLB 10* Top Play OVER 11 runs in Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 8:40 ET - Light winds, mild temperatures, thin air will all combine to make for a very hitter-friendly night at Coors Field Friday. Zach Greinke gets the start for the Diamondbacks and he allowed 3 homers versus the Rockies in Arizona last week. In his last start at Colorado he also also was hit quite hard but managed to allow "only" three earned runs in an outing where he was knocked out in the 6th inning. This will be a tough outing for him as the Rockies bats have been heating up at home after a slow start earlier this season. As the weather has warmed so too have the Colorado sticks. The Rockies are averaging 8 runs per game in their last 7 home games! However, Colorado has also allowed 14 earned runs per game in their last 3 home games and German Marquez is likely to struggle tonight. The Rockies starter used a fantastic curveball to get some key strikeouts against the Dbacks last week in Arizona. However, in the thin air of Colorado the ball doesn't always break as well. Of course this was clearly evident in the most recent home start Marquez made. The Rockies righty was rocked for 8 earned runs in just 4 innings of work and tonight he faces a Dbacks team that had won 7 of 11 games and averaged 6 runs per game before back to back low-scoring games at Washington. In other words, a bounce back can be expected here in a hitter-friendly situation. The Diamondbacks are 14-8 to the over in night games this season. The Rockies are 6-1 to the over this season in home games where their line is an a range of -125 to +125 and I look for another slugfest in this one. 10* OVER the total in Colorado Friday night. |
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05-05-17 | Predators v. Blues -108 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
Early Annihilation - Rickenbach NHL Friday 10* Top Play St Louis Blues Money Line (-) vs Nashville Predators @ 8 ET - Pekka Rinne, Preds goalie, has certainly been a difference maker in this series but the fact is that he has only won 13 of 31 road starts this season! The Blues got a key Game 2 win on home ice after dropping Game 1 and now they need another key home win to stay alive in this series and I expect them to get it. With that win in Game 2, St Louis has now won 8 of its last 12 road games. Also, the Blues have won 8 of the last 11 games hosting the Predators. Despite coming up short on the scoreboard in Game 4, St Louis did outshoot the Preds by a 33-25 margin. With this being a "win or pack your golf bags" game for the Blues, there is every reason to believe we'll another strong effort from St Louis here! The Predators have a losing record on the season in road games with a posted total of 5 goals or less. The Blues have won 17 of 26 home games with a posted total of 5 goals or less this season. Also, the past 3 seasons combined, St Louis has won 36 of 54 games when they are playing with 2 days of rest between games! The rest, with the Blues coming back home and needing that time physically and mentally to hit the "recharge button" for this game, definitely helps the trailing team in this playoff series. When down in a series, St Louis has won 5 of 8 the last 3 seasons and they get another big win here on home ice with their backs against the wall. 10* ST LOUIS BLUES |
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05-04-17 | Jazz v. Warriors OVER 204 | Top | 104-115 | Win | 100 | 24 h 47 m | Show |
Total Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Golden State Warriors vs Utah Jazz @ 10:30 ET - The first game in this series stayed under the total but not by much and that was with the teams combining to make only 16 of 58 three pointers! In other words, if just one of the teams would have had a "normal" night from three point range, there is no way the game would have failed to go over the total. The 106 points scored by the Warriors marked just the 2nd time in their last 11 games that Golden State has been held under 109 points. In fact, in the other 9 games the Warriors averaged 121 points per game. No matter how much the Jazz try to slow them down, particularly tough to do in Oakland, the Warriors are going to get their points. That said, with the downward adjustment on this line and the fact that one (if not both) of the teams is likely to shoot better from three point land means there is exceptional line value here. The over was 7-3 in the Warriors last 10 games prior to Game 1 of this series staying under the total. The over is 4-1 the last 5 times the Jazz have been off of a game where they were held to 95 points or less. Utah averaged 105.2 points per game in those 5 games and I look for them to push hard in this game but once again, the Warriors offensive machine isn't going to be stopped and that should lead to a very high-scoring Game Two. 10* Top Play OVER the total in Golden State |
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05-04-17 | Brewers v. Cardinals OVER 7.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 112 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in St Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 7:15 ET - Chase Anderson has been strong early this season for the Brewers but I feel he has truly pitched "over his head" and there have been signs that a "reality check" is on the way. Anderson had more walks than strikeouts in his most recent start and he allowed 4 earned runs in that outing. In his most recent road start, Anderson allowed 7 hits in 5 innings and was fortunate to only be charged with 2 earned runs. The game between these clubs yesterday was rained out and they had a 2-1 game in the prior game. However, the Cardinals had been red hot at the plate with an average of 5.7 runs per game in their 9 prior games. The Brewers also had been red hot at the plate with an average of 7.3 runs per game in their 7 prior games. Look for the hot hitting to resume here as Anderson is unlikely to be the only pitcher struggling in this one. The Cardinals will have Adam Wainwright on the mound and he has been rocked for 10 earned runs on 25 hits in just 16 innings of work spanning his last 3 starts. Each of these guys had a solid start against the opposing club about two weeks ago but look for the quick 2nd look to bring out the best in both lineups. The over is 14-5 in Brewers divisional games this season and 5-2 in Cardinals games when they are playing with a day off. After yesterday's rain out, even though it will be a cool night at Busch with the wind blowing in from left, the value is with the over in this one with the weather helping to push this total lower than it should be. 10* OVER the total in St Louis |
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05-03-17 | Ducks v. Oilers OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 118 | 24 h 56 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach Wednesday NHL 10* Top Play OVER 5.5 goals (+120) in Edmonton Oilers vs Anaheim Ducks @ 10 ET - After Sunday's 6-3 loss to the Ducks, the Oilers have seen 4 of their last 6 games fly over the total and Edmonton has allowed 19 goals in those 4 overs. Their goaltending (at least in my book) is still suspect but certainly they have dangerous weapons with their top lines up front. That has played a key role in Edmonton averaging 3.4 goals per game in their last 5 games and they'll be looking to respond off of the Game 3 loss as they don't wait to let the Ducks steal back home ice which the Oilers had worked so hard to earn by taking both games down in Anaheim. The issue, as usual, for the Oilers is going to be keeping the puck out of their own net and I just don't see that happening here. Anaheim has won 9 of its last 11 games thanks to offensive production that has averaged 3.6 goals per game during that rock solid stretch. Only 1 time in those 11 games were the Ducks held to less than 3 goals. The over is 5-3 in Anaheim's 2nd round playoff games and they have had just 13 unders the last 39 times they've been trailing in a playoff series! The over is 13-7 this season when Edmonton is off of a game where they allowed 4 goals or more. Also, the over is 11-6 this season when the Oilers are off of a loss by a margin of 2 goals or more this season. Look for a barnburner tonight in a crucial game in this series that means so much to both clubs. Cam Talbot's divisional games for the Oilers have gone 24-11 to the over this season and John Gibson's divisional games for the Ducks have gone 14-8 to the over this season. 10* OVER 5.5 goals in Edmonton |
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05-03-17 | Rockets +5.5 v. Spurs | Top | 96-121 | Loss | -107 | 26 h 23 m | Show |
TNT Blowout ATS Rout - Rickenbach NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play Houston Rockets (+) @ San Antonio Spurs @ 9:35 ET - Again, the "zig zag" theory is in effect here and yet I'll gladly be a contrarian and step in on the other side of it. Many will be looking to back the Spurs after the ugly loss in Game One. However, I rode the Rockets to victory there and, as I mentioned in my write-up for Monday's game, San Antonio is just not the team they use to be. I firmly believe that had the Grizzlies had Tony Allen available for that first round series, the Spurs would not have even got past Memphis! Now the Spurs have quickly found out they have their hands full with this uber-talented scoring machine filled with lethal three point shooters. The Rockets simply are too much for the Spurs and, though San Antonio will surely make adjustments and will look to respond here on their home floor, that still is no guarantee of victory and certainly no guarantee of a cover. Let's face it, the Rockets are better than they use to be, and the Spurs are just not the same team they were a few short years ago. Kawhi Leonard is an amazing player for San Antonio but just look at the production the Spurs have gotten from the key that is supposed to be their 2nd best player, LaMarcus Aldridge. He hasn't scored more than 20 points in a game since March 23rd and had a very poor Game One performance. The Rockets are relishing the underdog role they are in for this series and they are 12-4 ATS an underdog this season. Houston is also 6-2 SU in recent seasons when leading in a playoff series. The Spurs are on a 2-5 (SU and ATS) run in 2nd round playoff games. After a loss by 10 points or more San Antonio went just 3-6 ATS this season. After allowing 115 points or more the last 3 seasons combined the Spurs are only 4-6 SU! They aren't necessarily going to bounce back here like many expect them to. The last 5 games between the Rockets and Spurs have featured only one Spurs win by more than 2 points and that one came by just 6. I'll take the points with a team that gives SA some major "match-up issues". 10* HOUSTON |
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05-03-17 | White Sox v. Royals OVER 8 | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox @ 8:15 ET - Weather is an important factor in MLB Totals but sometimes it can actually help lead to line value when the weather factors are actually going against the play that we want to make. That is precisely the situation here. The wind is expecting to be blowing in tonight at Kauffman Stadium and the temps will be in the upper 40s on a rather chilly evening. As a result, this total has been dropping this morning and we can now take the over at 8 runs and not even have to lay juice. This is offering great line value considering this pitching match-up absolutely spells O-V-E-R! Mike Pelfrey gets the start for the White Sox and, amazingly, he is in his 12th MLB season even though he's never been that damn good! Seriously guys, this is a pitcher that has been hit at a .293 clip by major league hitters in his career. Pelfrey just doesn't fool many hitters and we're getting some line value here because of the pitcher-friendly weather and the fact Pelfrey hasn't pitched much yet this season. The fact is he is not a strong hurler. 5 walks and 10 hits in 9 innings this season while only striking out 3 batters. Against the Royals, Pelfrey is 1-4 with a 6.37 ERA and a 1.98 WHIP in his career. He won't be the only hurler getting pounded tonight either. Nate Karns gets the start for KC and he's facing a ChiSox lineup that has helped lead the way to a 7-2 run for the White Sox as they've averaged 6.2 runs per game their last 9 games! Karns has allowed 10 earned runs in the less than 11 innings spanning his last two starts and one of those outings was against Chicago. Karns is winless in his 4 career starts against the White Sox. The ChiSox had just 1 under in their last 7 games before the first two games of this series stayed under the total. The overs resume for the White Sox tonight. Look for the over to improve to 9-5 this season when the ChiSox are off of a win. As for the Royals, their 10 divisional games have resulted in only 3 unders this season. 10* OVER the total in Kansas City |
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05-02-17 | Jazz +13 v. Warriors | Top | 94-106 | Win | 100 | 33 h 33 m | Show |
Top Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Tuesday 10* Top Play Utah Jazz (+) @ Golden State Warriors @ 10:30 ET - The Warriors are, of course, the superior team. But that doesn't mean they're going to crush the Jazz in Game One. After having more than a week off there is just no way that Golden State is going to be clicking on all cylinders here in Game One on Tuesday night. At the same time, the Jazz are riding the momentum of their series win over the Clippers where they got the big Game 7 victory on the road on Tuesday. In fact, that was the 8th time in the last 9 Utah games that the road team has gotten the cash. The road team has also been a big money winner in Golden State's recent games with the away team getting the cash in 9 of their last 13 games. Look for the fact that the Jazz have been playing consistently while the Warriors are off of a long layoff to be a huge difference maker here. Also, Golden State is only 2-4 ATS this season when facing a team that allows 98 points or less per game and the Utah D is rock solid. I look for the Jazz to improve to 6-2 ATS in the post-season with this one decided by single digits as they keep this one much closer than many people are expecting. The Warriors rely so heavily on their outside shooting and I just don't see them being strong in that department after the long lay-off. 10* UTAH JAZZ |
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05-02-17 | Blues v. Predators OVER 5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
Total Crusher - Rickenbach NHL Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 5 goals in Nashville Predators vs St Louis Blues @ 9:30 ET - The Predators don't want to let this opportunity pass them by. They have chance to go up 3-1 in the series and make sure they have the home ice edge with Game 6 set to be played here as well. However, a 2-2 series means the Blues get home ice edge with Game 5 and 7 set to be played in St Louis. With that said, the Predators want to take control early in Game 4 and get the home crowd into it. They can't afford to let the Blues control this game with a defensive-minded effort and trying to use physicality to slow down the Preds. The Predators have scored at least 3 goals in 5 of their last 6 games. The Blues had averaged 3.4 goals per game in their last 10 road games prior to being held to just 1 goal in their loss at Nashville Sunday. The last 7 times when trailing in a playoff series St Louis has not had a single under in any of those 7 games! Also, when off a loss by a multiple goal margin, the Blues have had just 8 unders in 24 such games this season - that's only a 33% rate to the under! In 2nd round playoff games St Louis has had just 2 unders in 10 games and the Predators have had just 1 under in 10 games! Many factors pointing to a game similar to Game One of this series that saw 7 goals scored! 10* OVER 5 goals in Nashville |
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05-02-17 | White Sox v. Royals OVER 7.5 | Top | 6-0 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 7.5 runs in Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox @ 8:15 ET - Danny Duffy of the Royals just got rocked by the White Sox in Chicago last week and that doesn't bode well for a quick turnaround match-up. Having just seen him (and pounded him!) the ChiSox will step to the plate with plenty of confidence in this one. Although Jose Quintana of the White Sox had a solid start versus the Royals last week, his only road start this season was ugly. Overall, Quintana had allowed 8 earned runs on 14 hits and 8 walks in his last 11 and 2/3 innings of work prior to success at Kansas City last week. By the way, the last time the ChiSox southpaw pitched at Kauffman Stadium he was rocked for 6 earned runs on 10 hits in just 4 innings of work in September. The over is 2-0 in Duffy's last 2 starts versus the White Sox and the games totaled 28 runs! Tonight's game will mark the 10th divisional game for the Royals this season and so far only 2 of their divisional match-ups have stayed under the total! The White Sox are hitting .279 this season against southpaws and that's #1 in the American League. Even though the Royals have been at the other end of the spectrum I like the fact that they are at home and Quintana has a history of struggling on the road. In other words, the low total here is offering exceptional line value on the over! 10* OVER the total in Kansas City |
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05-01-17 | Rockets +6 v. Spurs | Top | 126-99 | Win | 100 | 16 h 33 m | Show |
TNT Blowout ATS Rout - Rickenbach NBA Monday 10* Top Play Houston Rockets (+) @ San Antonio Spurs @ 9:35 ET - The Spurs barely got by a Memphis team that was without their top defender Tony Allen. My strong opinion is that the Spurs would not have advanced if Allen had not been hurt for the Grizzlies. Memphis played them tough in the regular season and then gave them hell in the post-season even without Allen! I have said it before and I'll say it again, because I reside in the San Antonio area and I follow this team closely. The Spurs are not what they use to be. Certainly they are still a talented, solid team that is well coached but I don't believe they have what it takes to go far in the post-season. Now the Spurs go from facing a short-handed Grizzlies team that barely got into the playoffs to facing one of the best in the west as they host the Rockets. The road team won 3 of the 4 meetings straight-up in the regular season and the road team did go a perfect 4-0 ATS in the season series! One meeting was decided by 6 points and the other three were each decided by only 2 points! You can see why I like having the points in this one and I also like the fact that the Spurs lost 4-2 in their most recent trip to the 2nd round and they also went just 2-4 ATS in that series. With Tim Duncan retired and Manu Giinobili no longer the X factor he once was, too much is expected of Kawhi Leonard. The Rockets weaponry will prove to be too much (at least in Game 1) and I'll gladly fade the line move as the betting markets have pushed this line higher! The Rockets won their most recent 2nd round playoff series, are 4-1 (SU and ATS) when playing with 3 or more days of rest between games and I look for them to improve to a fantastic 13-4 ATS as an underdog this season as they continue to thrive in that role! 10* HOUSTON |
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05-01-17 | Capitals +109 v. Penguins | Top | 3-2 | Win | 109 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
PA Insider - Rickenbach NHL Monday 10* Top Play Washington Capitals Money Line (+) @ Pittsburgh Penguins @ 7:30 ET - Even though the Capitals lost each of the first two games of this series on home ice I look for them to bounce back on enemy ice. The Caps did outshoot the Penguins by a combined 71 to 45 in the first two games but they lost a tight one in Game One and then goalie Braden Holtby had an awful performance in Game Two and got yanked. I expect Holtby to bounce back strong here as is he one of the game's best and he'll get back on track. The fact the Capitals have a big edge in shots on goal also shows the scoring chances are coming and Penguins goalie Marc-Andre Fleury has certainly been known for some playoff meltdowns of his own. Don't be surprised if he is the one struggling in Game 3 just like Holtby did in Game 2. Despite the loss in Game 2, Washington has won 22 of 34 this season when playing with revenge. Also, the past 3 seasons combined, the Capitals have won 30 of 47 when playing with home loss revenge. When off of a loss by a margin of 2 goals or more, the Caps have won 27 of 41 the past 3 seasons combined. We rode the Ducks to victory last night and they were in the same situation the Capitals are here (lost both games on home ice) and Anaheim won big 6 to 3. I look for the Caps to respond in a similar fashion here. 10* WASHINGTON |
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05-01-17 | Pirates v. Reds OVER 8 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -114 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 7:10 ET - The wind is going to be blowing out to left field at a good clip for this one and of course Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati is known for being a hitter-friendly venue. That said, we are getting great line value here with this total being held lower than it should be due to the pitching match-up. As solid as Gerrit Cole is for the Pirates, he does have a 4.76 ERA in road starts this season. He's opposed by the Reds Amir Garrett who was off to a great start this season before getting completely rocked by the Brewers in his most recent start. That poor outing versus Milwaukee showed that the 24 year old is still adjusting to the big leagues and he now faces a Pirates team that had a .350 on base percentage versus southpaws last season and that was tied for 2nd in the league out of all 30 teams in the majors. Pittsburgh's game went over the total yesterday for the 6th time in their last 9 games. The Reds game went over the total yesterday for the 8th straight game! Sometimes, due to pitching match-ups, the odds makers feel forced to over-adjust totals downward to appease the betting markets based on pitching match-ups. In Cincy, more often than not, that just does not work! The over is 45-25 in Reds home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs the past 3 seasons. The over is 12-4 this season in Cincy's divisional games. Also, the Pirates are seeking revenge for a 3-game home sweep at the hands of the Reds in early April. While I expect the Bucs bats to respond, don't be surprised if Cole gets a little touched up here. He is 0-6 with a 5.44 ERA in his 8 career starts against the Reds. 10* OVER the total in Cincinnati |
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04-30-17 | Cubs +101 v. Red Sox | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Sunday 10* Top Play Chicago Cubs Money Line (+) @ Boston Red Sox @ 8:05 ET - The Cubs Kyle Hendricks was much sharper in his most recent start while the Red Sox Eduardo Rodrigiuez walked 5 and he's now issued 12 free passes in just 16 innings of work! The southpaw is facing a Cubs team that is 5-1 (83%) against southpaw starters this season. The BoSox are only 4-7 (36%) in night games this season. Also, with yesterday's win, Chicago has now gone 7-2 (78%) against teams with a winning record this season while Boston has lost 8 of 13 games against teams with a winning record this season. The Cubs have won 80 of 122 games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs while the Red Sox are -$10,400 and surprisingly 32-39 the L3 seasons in home games the last 3 seasons with a line of +125 to -125. On a chilly night in Boston where the line is in the pick'em range and runs will be at a premium, you can see from the numbers above that this is the type of game the Cubs thrive in and the Red Sox struggle in! Also, when the Cubs are off of a win, they have been streak-builders this season. Only one time since this season got underway have the Cubs had a 1 game winning "streak". In other words, off of a win yesterday, odds are in our favor that the Cubs to make it 2 in a row today! 10* CHICAGO CUBS |
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04-30-17 | Ducks +115 v. Oilers | Top | 6-3 | Win | 115 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
NBC Sports Network Rout - Rickenbach NHL Sunday 10* Top Play Anaheim Ducks Money Line (+) @ Edmonton Oilers @ 7 ET - The Ducks are a little banged up but one can't ignore the domination of the Oilers in the first two games of the series. The situation here on underdog Anaheim is strengthened by the fact that the Ducks are down 0-2 in this series despite outshooting Edmonton 76 to 55, winning the faceoff battles, and also leading in puck possession. The key categories the Ducks are leading in would have you believing they're up 2-0 in the series or at least no worse than tied up at a game apiece. Yet Anaheim is an 0-2 hole and on the road and that leaves no doubt about the fact that they're going to bring an intense effort here. Even with the Oilers "fortunate" start to this series, they are still 44-75 their last 119 games against teams with a winning record. Even with Friday's loss, the Ducks are still 10-5 this season when playing with home loss revenge. Also, Anaheim is 13-6 this season (and 37-22 the last 3 seasons) when they are off of a game where they scored 1 goal or less. The Ducks also are 32-15 in Sunday games in recent seasons while Edmonton is 13-19. The road team that has dominated but is down 0-2 in this series, gets back into it with a big win here. 10* ANAHEIM |
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04-30-17 | Jazz v. Clippers OVER 190.5 | Top | 104-91 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Clippers vs Utah Jazz @ 3:30 ET - The 3 games played in Los Angeles in this series have all stayed under the total and, overall, there have been back to back unders in this series as both Games 5 and 6 stayed under the total. That is noteworthy because, in terms of the odds of a 3rd straight under occurring in this series, the Jazz when off of back to back unders have not had a 3rd straight under the last 6 weeks! The Clippers have not recorded 3 straight unders in their games since prior to the All Star break! The games in this series have been tight ballgames with the 6 games all decided by single digits and the average margin of victory being 5 points. The key with that is that another close game is likely in Game 7 and that likely will lead to fouling and trips to the free throw line late in the game as each team knows "there is no tomorrow". Whoever is down is going to be willing to foul even if down 8 or 10 points with only a minute to go. Look for plenty of late "scramble points" in the final sequences of this one but, the fact is, those points may not even be needed here. The Jazz have averaged 100 points per game in the last 4 games in this series and the Clippers are going to grab the momentum from staving off elimination in Game 6 as they now enjoy their home floor in Game 7. That said, don't be surprised if both teams get to triple digits in this one! The Jazz allowed the Clippers to connect on 49.4% of their shots from the field in Game 6. The last 3 times the Jazz have allowed a team to hit 45.4% or better from the field the over is a perfect 3-0 in their next game. 10* OVER the total in Los Angeles Clippers |
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04-29-17 | Penguins v. Capitals OVER 5.5 | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach NHL 10* Top Play OVER 5.5 goals in Washington Capitals vs Pittsburgh Penguins @ 8:05 ET - Thursday's game one was a 3-2 game with over 7 minutes to go in the game. Considering the firepower of these two teams (and the fact that an empty netter is always a possibility in a situation like that in the final minute or so), it was a bit surprising to see that one end up staying under the total. Look for Game 2 to make up for it. In the first game neither team scored in the first period but then there were 3 goals in the 2nd and 2 goals in the 3rd and I expect that momentum to carry right into Game 2. One thing is for certain, Washington is going to come out aggressive and will be again peppering Marc-Andre Fleury with shots in this one. Even with a total of "only" 5 goals scored in Game 1, these teams have averaged nearly 9 goals per game in their last 4 meetings. The under in Game 1 was just the 4th under in Fleury's 14 starts against a divisional foe this season! The over is 8-4 this season when the Capitals are playing with home loss revenge. The over is 3-1 this season (and 44-23 long-term) in Penguins playoff games when they hold the lead in the series. With the Pens trying to go up 2-0 on enemy ice, you know Alexander Ovechkin and company are going to come out strong in this one. It sets this one up nicely to be a back and forth barnburner because the Caps will look to get early goals and turn the tables on the Pens but Pittsburgh has averaged 4 goals per game in their last 12 games and certainly won't go away without a fight in Game 2. Barnburner indeed! 10* Top Play OVER 5.5 goals in Washington Saturday night |
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04-29-17 | Angels v. Rangers OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels @ 7:15 ET - Both of these clubs have trended heavily to the under this season but that is simply serving to give us line value on what will be a very hitter-friendly night at the ballpark in Arlington. The wind is going to be blowing out to center at a good clip and some drier air is moving in behind a cool front. Look for the ball to be carrying very well in this one. The Angels are starting Jesse Chavez and he got roughed up by the Rangers for 5 earned runs in less than 5 innings of work earlier this month. Chavez has a 5.24 ERA versus Texas in his career. The Rangers will have Yu Darvish on the mound. He has had great success against the Angels in his career. However I do like the fact that he just faced them a few weeks ago and the Angels now get a quick second look. Since that strong start against Los Angeles, Darvish has given up 3 homers in his last 2 starts. The Angels bats are starting to heat up with 16 runs on 31 hits in their last 3 games. Surprisingly the over is 10-3 in the career starts Darvish has made against the Angels. Also, the over is 3-1 in the 4 career starts Chavez has made against the Rangers. Texas is 3-0 to the over in their games against teams with a winning record this season. The Rangers have pounded out 21 hits in their last 2 games and should pound Chavez here. 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas |
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04-29-17 | Rangers -112 v. Senators | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -112 | 16 h 16 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach NHL Saturday 10* Top Play New York Rangers Money Line (-) @ Ottawa Senators @ 3 ET - The Rangers lost a tight one in Game One and I look for the "road warriors" to bounce back in Game Two. No team had more road wins than the Rangers in the regular season and they'll make a few line changes and tweak a few things to get back on track Saturday afternoon. It was a 2-1 loss for the Rangers Thursday night as a fortuitous bounce for the Senators with 4 minutes to go in the game was the difference. Certainly Ottawa deserves credit for their great effort in Game One but the Rangers will be more aggressive in Game Two. Look for the Rangers to limit the Sens scoring chances Saturday as they know the 40+ shots they allowed on Henrik Lundqvist can't happen again in this one. The Rangers, when off of a game where they were held to 1 goal or less, have gone 36-14 the last 3 seasons - including a fantastic 12-2 this season! When trailing in a playoff series the Rangers are 7-3 the last 3 seasons. When playing with revenge, the Rangers are 25-13 this season! In a home game with a posted total of 5 goals or less the Sens are only 18-26 and the Rangers won 27 of 41 (66%) road games this season! 10* Top Play NEW YORK RANGERS money line Saturday afternoon |
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04-28-17 | Braves v. Brewers -118 | Top | 10-8 | Loss | -118 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
Payday Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Friday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Brewers Money Line (-) vs Atlanta Braves @ 8:10 ET - Fantastic line value here with the Brewers as a small home favorite. The Braves are 1-6 this season on the road with a money line of -125 to +125. Also, Atlanta is 1-6 this season in road games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. I am expecting the Braves to drop to 1-4 this season in their games against teams with a winning record as Milwaukee has big edges here. The Brewers are 10-5 in night games this season and have a huge edge in starting pitching tonight. Milwaukee has Chase Anderson on the mound and he is 2-0 in his 4 starts this season with a 1.12 ERA and he's averaged about a strikeout per inning. The Braves have the aging Bartolo Colon on the mound and he's been absolutely crushed in his last two road starts with 10 earned runs allowed on 18 hits in 11 innings! Colon has given up 25 hits in his last 18 innings of work against the Brewers and he gave up 4 earned runs or more in 2 of the 3 outings. Milwaukee's Anderson is 2-0 against the Braves and he allowed just 2 earned runs in each start. Even though Atlanta is off of back to back wins they previously had lost 6 straight games and averaged just 2.5 runs per game in those 6 games. The Brewers are averaging 6.2 runs per game in their last 13 games. Milwaukee has a .474 slugging percentage this season which is good for the #2 spot in the majors. Their bullpen ERA is 3.30 so far this season while the Braves pen is at a 4.91 ERA. 10 MILWAUKEE |
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04-28-17 | Celtics v. Bulls +2.5 | Top | 105-83 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
Playoff Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Friday 10* Top Play Chicago Bulls (+) vs Boston Celtics @ 8:05 ET - The Bulls lost the turnover battle big in Wednesday's Game 5 and that certainly was a factor in them ending up on the wrong end of a 11-point game. Chicago knocked down 50% of their shots but they could not overcome the turnover differential and they'll need to play a much cleaner game tonight. With the Celtics not shooting well - 19 off 77 from three point land the last 2 games - they are fortunate to still be up in this series. The poor shooting catches up with Boston here. The Bulls will go "all out" at home in hopes of forcing a Game 7 and Chicago plays solid defense when fully focused. Full focus will certainly be at the forefront for the Bulls in this one and they are 7-2 SU and ATS this season (and 16-5 ATS and 15-6 SU the last 3 seasons combined) when they enter a game on a losing streak of 3 games or more. The Celtics are a horrible 2-15 ATS this season when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more. Also, Boston is 6-11 ATS this season when off of a win by a double digit margin. The Bulls have shot well in each of their last two road games with the Celtics but, surprisingly shot poorly in the 2 home games in this series. That has led to line value here as the Bulls are actually a home dog now in this one. Even with Rajon Rondo still out, the Bulls have more than enough weapons to force a Game 7 with a big home W tonight. 10* CHICAGO BULLS |
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04-27-17 | Spurs v. Grizzlies +4 | Top | 103-96 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 6 m | Show |
TNT Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Thursday 10* Top Play Memphis Grizzlies (+) vs San Antonio Spurs @ 9:35 ET - I lost a tough one Tuesday when the Spurs pulled away late to get the cover as a double digit fave over the Grizzlies in Game 5 of this series. However, the Spurs finally got some points from Manu Ginobili and they shot a ridiculous 14 of 28 from three point land. Memphis responded at home in both Games 3 and 4 after losing Games 1 and 2 and I expect the Grizzlies to again come up big on their home floor in Game 6 after coming up short in Game 5. Each of the last 3 games in this series have gone over the total and the Grizzles are 19-10 SU (and 18-11 ATS) the last 3 seasons combined when they enter a game on an "over streak" of 3 games or more. The Spurs are only 4-6 SU (and 3-7 ATS) the last 3 seasons combined when they are leading in a playoff series. Spurs had lost 5 of their last 7 (SU and ATS) before getting the big win in Game 5 that was largely attributable to red hot three point shooting. The odds of that continuing here just are not that good and the Grizzlies have been fired up ever since their head coach's tirade about the officiating after Game 2. There is no way that Memphis is going to stop fighting in Game 6 as it's "win or the season is over" for the Grizzlies. Dating back to the regular season and including this series so far, the home team has a perfect 7-0 ATS mark in the Spurs last 7 games. Look for more of the same Thursday as San Antonio has not had a hot shooting night on the road since they shot 48% from the field at Minnesota over a month ago! The Grizzlies "D up" hard in this one. 10* MEMPHIS |
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04-27-17 | Yankees v. Red Sox OVER 7 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -119 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
MLB Network Blowout Rout - Rickenbach MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 7 runs in Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees @ 7:10 ET - This is a contrarian play of course considering that Chris Sale has been phenomenal for the Red Sox early this season. I am expecting the Yankees to do a little damage against him. The Yanks have averaged 7.8 runs per game in their last 5 wins and before being held a little quiet in their last two games, the Yankees had reached double digits in hits in 5 of their last 7 games. As for Masahiro Tanaka getting the start for the Yanks, look for him to get pounded here. The Red Sox are hitting nearly .300 at home this season and Tanaka is winless with a 11.73 ERA and 2.61 WHIP in his two road starts this season. The Yankees right-hander has been hit at a .294 clip this season and also has been having more issues with command of his pitches. This has led to 10 walks in his 21 innings this season. Also, he has hit two batters and allowed 2 homers in his road starts this season. Making those numbers even uglier is the fact that he didn't even total 8 innings in the two starts. With this total dropping to a 7 and with my contrarian nature, I love backing the over in this spot. The last 16 times a Red Sox game had a total of 7 runs or less only 6 of the 16 stayed under the total. The Yankees are 6-2 to the over this season in their games against teams with a winning record and also the Yanks are a perfect 3-0 to the over against left-handed starters. 10* Top Play OVER 7 runs in Boston |
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04-27-17 | Rangers -110 v. Senators | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NHL Thursday 10* Top Play New York Rangers Money Line (-) @ Ottawa Senators @ 7 ET - The Rangers got past a very strong Canadiens team in the first round and they did it by winning 3 straight games after being down in a 2-1 hole in the series. I am impressed. I am not so impressed with the Senators series victory over the Bruins as Boston was banged up and also simply not a consistent team this season. The Bruins had a lot of holes. The Rangers don't! Also, the Rangers have thrived on the road all season. New York's 27 road wins in the regular season easily topped the league. Also, the Rangers took 2 of 3 at Montreal in their opening round series win. As for the Senators series with the Bruins, the road team won 5 of the 6 games. The Rangers lost their most recent trip to Ottawa 3 weeks ago but the Rangers playoff position was set at that point. Also, the Rangers have won 25 of 37 this season when playing with revenge. The Senators have lost 4 of 5 this season when playing with 3 or more days of rest between games. 10* NEW YORK RANGERS |
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04-27-17 | Blue Jays v. Cardinals OVER 8 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 4 h 33 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 8 runs in St Louis Cardinals vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 1:45 ET (Game 1 of double header) - The wind will be blowing out and there is reason to believe both pitchers will struggle here. Mat Latos gets the start for the Blue Jays and he got roughed up by an Angels lineup that has been struggling this season. That was Latos first start of the season and the fact that the Angels got to him a bit plus he walked 3 and struck out only 1 in 5 innings is not a good sign for the right-hander. Thursday he faces a Cardinals team that has averaged 5.2 runs per game in their last 5 games and 4 of the 5 went over the total. The Cards will have Carlos Martinez on the mound and he's off to a bit of a rough start early this season. He's 0-3 with a 7.05 ERA and 1.83 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Martinez will be facing a Blue Jays lineup that is starting to swing the bats better as they've reached double digits in hits in 6 of their last 11 games. The Jays have averaged 5 runs per game in their last 5 games and this will be their 4th game this season as a road dog of +125 to +175 and, so far, none of these games have resulted in an under! As for the Cardinals, look for their Thursday games to go to 3-0 to the over with a wild one in the first game of their day night double header. 10* OVER 8 runs in St Louis |
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04-26-17 | Bulls +8 v. Celtics | Top | 97-108 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 21 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play Chicago Bulls (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 8:30 ET - The Bulls aren't done yet. I know they just lost two straight at home to the Celtics and are still trying to adjust without Rajon Rondo, but the fact is Chicago won both games at Boston to open up this series. Additionally, the Bulls started out dominating the boards in this series and that domination has continued throughout. With just slightly better shooting, the Bulls just aren't going to lose this game by double digits. That said, there is tremendous line value with the big number posted on this game. Keep in mind, Boston's Sunday win in Game 4 of this series was the 1st cover in the last 4 times the Celtics were off of a game where they allowed 100 points or less. I look for the Bulls to respond in a big way here after scoring under 100 in back to back home games. Look for Boston to drop to 1-4 ATS the last 5 times they've been off of a game where they held their team under the century mark. The Celtics are an ugly 4-10 ATS this season when playing with 2 days of rest between games. The Bulls are a fantastic 8-4 ATS this season when playing with 2 days of rest between games. Look for the Celtics to drop to 17-27 ATS in home games this season while the Bulls improve to 29-19 ATS as an underdog this season. Big dog value being offered here as the Bulls are off of back to back losses and haven't lost three straight games since early March. They'll make some adjustments here sans Rondo. 10* CHICAGO |
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04-26-17 | Twins v. Rangers OVER 9 | Top | 3-14 | Win | 100 | 6 h 10 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach Wednesday MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Minnesota Twins @ 8:05 ET - The wind will be blowing out to center field at a pretty good clip early on in this game. That is bad news for both of these hurlers as, despite good numbers early this season, each has found tonight's opposition to be a bit of a nemesis. The Rangers Cole Hamels allowed 5 earned runs in each of his two starts against the Twins last season and he didn't even last 5 innings in either start! The Twins Hector Santiago allowed 12 earned runs in 13 innings in his 3 starts versus Texas last season. The Rangers offense has certainly been a little "up and down" this season but they had scored at least 5 runs in 6 of their first 10 home games this season before being shutdown in the first two games of this series. Now, after getting drilled 8-1 yesterday, look for the Rangers bats to respond versus a pitcher they've certainly enjoyed success against. As for the Twins, they've won 3 straight road games and averaged 7.3 runs per game in those 3 victories. The over is 30-19 in Minnesota's Wednesday games in recent seasons and 36-17 in Rangers Wednesday games in recent seasons - including a perfect 3-0 this season. Look for the over to improve to 5-1 in Hamels starts against the Twins in his career. 10* OVER the total in Texas |
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04-26-17 | Astros v. Indians -105 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play Cleveland Indians Money Line (+) vs Houston Astros @ 6:10 ET - Look for the Indians to bounce right back after yesterday's loss. Trevor Bauer gets the start for the Tribe and he has struck out 20 in 17 innings this season. Bauer appears to be rounding into form again as he held the Twins to 2 runs on just 3 hits in 6 and 1/3 innings in his most recent start. Also Bauer has a great history versus the Astros as a he's 5-0 with a 1.97 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in his 5 career starts versus Houston. The Indians should give him plenty of run support today too because they'll be facing a starting pitcher known for struggling on the road. Lance McCullers gets the start for Houston and he is 3-8 with a 5.11 ERA in road starts in his career. This season McCullers got rocked at Oakland in his only road start so far this year. Even with yesterday's win the Astros still have a losing record on the road (83-92) the last 2+ seasons. The Indians, even with yesterday's loss, are still 44-24 in home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs the past 2+ seasons. After struggling with a lefty, Dallas Keuchel, yesterday look for the Indians to get back on track versus McCullers today and improve to 8-3 this season in their games against right-handed starters this season. 10* CLEVELAND |
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04-25-17 | Grizzlies +10 v. Spurs | Top | 103-116 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 7 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Tuesday 10* Top Play Memphis Grizzlies (+) @ San Antonio Spurs @ 9 ET - The Spurs are getting heavily played again as this line is already up to double digits. Do you remember the Big 3 of the Spurs? Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, and Tony Parker. Why do I mention this? Duncan is now retired. Ginobili is 0 for 15 in the series and still hasn't scored a single point. As for Parker, he did bounce back to play his best game of the series in Game 4 but he was held scoreless in Game 3 and his assists are way down in the post-season. The reason I mention all this is because the Spurs true star now (and arguably their only star), Kawhi Leonard scored 43 points in Game 4 and, guess what, San Antonio still lost! This is bad news for the Spurs because they just aren't the team they use to be. I know they had a great regular season but it's playoff time and for a team like Memphis (without the defender - Tony Allen - that was going to be key in slowing down Leonard) to be as tough on SA as they have been, it shows just how far the Spurs have fallen. Making the situation even worse for San Antonio is that they've now given Memphis the confidence that comes with back to back wins. Ever since the Memphis coach went off on all the officials after Game 2 you've seen a different Grizzlies team and they won't stop on Tuesday night. Memphis is now 9-4 SU and ATS in games against teams that allow 98 points or less on the season. Also, the Grizzlies thrive on the underdog role and building momentum from it. They are 12-8 ATS (and 14-6 SU!) when off of an upset win as an underdog this season! The Spurs are just 4-9 ATS this season when playing with 2 days of rest between games and though they should get the home win tonight it's very likely to be an all out war decided by single digits. That said, grab the big points in this one. 10* MEMPHIS |
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04-25-17 | Mariners v. Tigers +118 | Top | 9-19 | Win | 118 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play Detroit Tigers Money Line (+) vs Seattle Mariners @ 7:10 ET - The early line movement has shown a strong push toward the Mariners and that is understandable as Felix Hernandez is a 'big name' pitcher. That said, oftentimes situations like this open up great line value on the other side and that is precisely the case here. Hernandez has actually been hit hard in 2 of his last 3 starts and he was simply fortunate more runs weren't scored. In those 2 outings he allowed 22 hits (including 3 homers) in 12 and 1/3 innings of work! The fact Hernandez allowed a total of only 7 earned runs in those 2 games was truly a miracle. As a result, line value is truly off the charts here as Hernandez also gave up 7 hits in just 5 innings in his most recent start at Detroit. The Tigers are off of back to back wins where they scored 18 runs on 24 hits in just 2 games. They'll step into the batters box with confidence tonight. The Mariners are off of a win but had previously lost 4 of their last 5 games. Jordan Zimmerman gets the start for the Tigers and though he was roughed up a bit in his most recent start, that outing was on the road. In his two home starts this season he has allowed only 8 hits in 10 and 2/3 innings of work. Even with Seattle's big win at Oakland Sunday, the Mariners are still only 2-9 on the road this season and only hitting .205 away from home this season! The Tigers are 5-2 at home this season. This is simply a classic case of the starting pitching expected impact having too big of an influence on the betting markets. It has created value on the other side because honestly I wouldn't be surprised to see Zimmerman outpitch Hernandez and, at the same time, let's not forget we're able to back a 5-2 home team over a 2-9 road team and we get the underdog price too. I'll take it. 10* DETROIT TIGERS money line |
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04-24-17 | Wizards v. Hawks -130 | Top | 101-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
TNT Blowout ATS Rout - Rickenbach NBA Monday 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks (-) vs Washington Wizards @ 8 ET - After opening up at a -3 this line has come down down to a -2 and also the money line is even an option here with that price dropping as low as a -130 in some spot as of early gameday morning. The fact is that Atlanta's Game 3 domination was no fluke and I'll gladly grab them again here. The Hawks only made 59% of their free throws in Saturday's win. In other words, had they shot a more "normal" free throw percentage the blowout would have been even worse. They won the battle of the boards and have dominated the glass overall in this series. Also, Atlanta finally reversed the turnover battle and got the better of the Wizards in that department. This comes as no surprise as Washington is a different team when on the road. The Wizards are now 4-8 SU their last 12 road games - a span of 6 weeks. Even though many will be looking for a bounce back from Washington off of a bad loss, they're actually only 21-28 SU when off of a loss by double digits the past 3 seasons combined. Also, this season when the Wizards are an underdog, they've only gone 11-22 SU! Atlanta normally does a good job of maintaining the momentum off of a big win as they're 53-29 SU the last 3 seasons combined when off of a win by a double digit margin. Also, at home the Hawks are on a 94-43 SU run the last 3 seasons combined. Also, with Atlanta's win in Game 3, they've now won 5 straight home games and haven't tasted defeat on their own floor in the past 4 weeks. I don't see that changing here. 10* ATLANTA |
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04-24-17 | Twins v. Rangers OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Minnesota Twins @ 8:05 ET - Martin Perez gets the start for the Rangers and his 3.60 ERA is deceiving as he has a 1.80 WHIP so he's truly been flirting with disaster in his outings this season. In his last 3 starts the Texas southpaw has allowed 20 hits and walked 8 batters in 14 innings. Of course that works out to a WHIP of 2.00 and if you're allowing an average of 2 baserunners per inning it's going to eventually catch up with you. Look for the Twins to 'make him pay' on Monday evening. The ball carries very well in Texas and it will be a mild evening at the ballpark. The Twins counter with Phil Hughes and he's been roughed up for 13 hits (including 3 homers) in his last 2 starts. This has led to 10 runs (8 earned) in just 9 innings spanning his last two outings. Also, the Minnesota right-hander has been rocked for 8 earned runs on 20 hits in his last 2 starts at Texas. The Rangers haven't been overly hot at the plate early this season but they have scored 5 runs or more in 2 of their last 3 games and a struggling Hughes should certainly bring out the best in them. As for the Twins sticks, they have scored at least 4 runs in 4 of their last 5 games and they did erupt for 11 runs in their most recent road game. When the Rangers have a big posted total at home it proves to be justified more often than not. The last 104 times they are at home with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs they have stayed under the total just 44 times! The over is a solid 78-52 the last 3 seasons combined in Twins games against teams with a losing record. 10* OVER the total in Texas |
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04-23-17 | Nationals v. Mets +140 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB 10* Top Play New York Mets Money Line (+) vs Washington Nationals @ 8 ET - The Nationals have won 6 straight games and the Mets have lost 7 of their last 8 games. Couple that with the fact that Max Scherzer has been pitching very well and has good history against the Mets and this one looks like it should be "automatic" for the Nats. However, it is tough to sweep a division rival on the road and the Mets Zach Wheeler has a great repertoire of pitches and has been throwing very well early this season. Wheeler's problem has bean an inability to go deep into games but look for him to be more efficient in this outing as he's only walked 4 in his 3 starts and he struck out 7 in 5 innings of work in his most recent start. Washington hasn't seen Wheeler since the 2014 season while the Mets lineup faced Scherzer numerous times last season. Familiarity tends to help the hitters and, as strong as Scherzer has been early this season, don't be surprised if Wheeler matches his effort in this outing. That said, I certainly like having the home dog value here with a team looking to avoid a sweep at the hands of a hated division rival. The Mets have won 35 of 57 Sunday games the L3 seasons combined and look for the lights to bring out the best in them tonight. New York is also 3-1 as a home dog of +125 to +175 the L3 seasons combined. Coming into this season, the past 2 years combined, the Nationals went 28-30 (and -$16,400) when they entered a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more. Look for an upset on Sunday night. 10* Top Play NEW YORK METS money line |
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04-23-17 | Capitals v. Maple Leafs +135 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
NBC Sports Network Rout - Rickenbach NHL Sunday 10* Top Play Toronto Maple Leafs Money Line (+) vs Washington Capitals @ 7:05 ET - The Maple Leafs certainly have proven worthy to be worthy competition for the Capitals and I feel strongly that they aren't done yet. While their 2-1 lead in the series is gone, this has been a tight battle all the way in this series with 4 of the 5 games decided in overtime. That said, way too much value is being given to Toronto here considering they are on home ice and no team has won 3 straight in this series yet and I expect that will not occur in this one as these two teams have proven to be too closely matched. The Leafs had scored 4 goals in 3 straight games before the 2-1 loss in Game 5. To put that in proper perspective, consider that the Caps have scored more than 3 goals just once in this entire series. Indeed Toronto has proven they are up to the challenge and certainly they are well coached. The Capitals have lost 11 of 16 road games with a posted total of 5.5 goals this season. Also, the last 3 seasons combined, Washington is 4-8 when they're leading in a playoff series. Toronto has a long-term mark of 18-8 when trailing in a playoff series and the Maple Leafs had outshot the Caps in 3 straight games (including both games in Toronto) before being outshot in Friday's loss. Bounce back time here for the Leafs as they avoid elimination and force a Game 7 for Tuesday. 10* TORONTO |
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04-23-17 | Celtics v. Bulls +3 | Top | 104-95 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Sunday 10* Top Play Chicago Bulls (+) vs Boston Celtics @ 6:30 ET - The Rajon Rondo injury is certainly impacting to the Bulls but it is also far from being insurmountable. I look for Chicago to bounce back in a big way at home after getting embarrassed at home on Friday. Certainly that final score looks ugly as the Bulls fell by 17 points to the Celtics but Boston knocked down 46% of their three pointers and outscored Chicago by 33 points from beyond the arc. That's your ballgame right there and that is highly unlikely to be repeated on Sunday. The Celtics won big in Game 3 despite being outrebounded (they've lost badly on boards in this series) and despite attempting just 7 free throws! Now you can see why I am expecting Chicago to prevail in Game 4. They will respond at home after the embarrassing home loss. Keep in mind, the Bulls had covered 4 straight and 12 of their last 16 before losing Friday. Also, the Celtics had failed to cover 9 of their last 12 before the big win in Game 3. The Bulls are 28-18 ATS as an underdog this season. The Celtics are 5-12 ATS this season when off of a win by 10 points or more. Even with the win Friday, Boston is still just 3-10 SU in playoff games the last 3 seasons combined. Look for the Bulls to improve to 7-3 SU and ATS in their last 10 playoff games as they are poised to bounce back and win outright here but certainly I will grab the points being offered. 10* CHICAGO |
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04-23-17 | Rockets +1.5 v. Thunder | Top | 113-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Sunday 10* Top Play Houston Rockets (+) @ Oklahoma City Thunder @ 3:30 ET - The Rockets don't want to give the Thunder any hope in this series and that means they certainly can't afford to lose another tight one at Oklahoma City. Houston can't allow the Thunder to tie it up and I like the Rockets chances to take the 3-1 lead here. Keep in mind, the Thunder shot 55.4% from the field (including 47.4% from three point land) and the Rockets were held under 46% from the field plus misfired on 25 of their 35 three pointers and yet Houston still only lost Game 3 by a bucket! That says a lot right there and I expect a more "normal" shooting performance tonight. The noteworthy aspect of that is the fact that OKC had been held to 43.5% or less from the field in 10 of their last 12 games before the offensive explosion on Friday night. As for the Rockets, they haven't been held below 45.8% from the field in any of their last 4 games. Also, on the season, Houston is the better three point shooting team so the Game 3 result certainly was a bit of an aberration. The Rockets are 10-4 ATS this season as an underdog. Houston is also 19-11 ATS when off of a game where they allowed 115 points or more. OKC is 7-14 ATS this season (and 17-35 ATS the L3 seasons combined) in games with a posted total of 220 points or more. The Thunder also are 22-37 (SU and ATS) the last 3 seasons combined in games against teams that average 106 points or more per game. 10* HOUSTON |
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04-23-17 | Giants v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 0-8 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 9 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants @ 3:10 ET - Mild afternoon in Colorado and both of the first two games in this series have gone over the total with 26 runs scored in the first two games. Although I respect the Giants Jeff Samardzija, there is no denying he is having some trouble keeping the ball down in the zone this season and he allowed 3 homers in his only road start this season. He is 0-3 with a 6.16 ERA so far this season and the Rockies are a dangerous lineup at home that is very familiar with him. The issue for Colorado today will be their own starting pitching. The Rockies have southpaw Kyle Freeland on the mound and the lefty is really struggling after his surprising success in his debut effort. In his two home starts he has a 5.91 ERA and has been hit at a .300 clip. The Giants are likely to tee off on him in "hitter friendly" conditions this afternoon. The over is 8-3 in Giants road games this season and San Francisco is also 8-3 to the over when they are off of a game where they allowed 10 runs or more. The over is 3-0 in Rockies home games this season where their line ranges from +125 to -125. Look for another one to fly over the total here as the Rockies and Giants hot hitting continues on an afternoon where the ball should be carrying very well in the dry air conditions at Coors Field. 10* OVER the total in Colorado Sunday afternoon |
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04-22-17 | Marlins v. Padres OVER 8 | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
Total Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins @ 8:40 ET - The Padres got a big inning yesterday to get their bats going in a 5-3 win over the Marlins. Even though San Diego hasn't hit well overall this season, the Padres have now scored at least 4 runs in 3 of their last 5 games and I expect them to enjoy success against Dan Strailly. The right-hander was a fantastic 8-1 at home last season but went 6-7 with a 4.70 ERA on the road last year. He's having some issues with command of his pitches (walked 5 in 5 innings in his most recent start) and, true to last season's performance, Strailly struggled in his only road start so far this season. As for the Padres starter in this one, Jered Weaver gets the call. Though his overall numbers are decent early this season, the veteran righty has allowed 5 homers in his 3 starts. Also, behind him is a Padres bullpen that has a 5.61 ERA (one of the worst in majors) so far this season. Weaver got hit at a .297 clip last season and he's likely in trouble tonight as he faces a tough Marlins lineup. Miami is hitting .264 in road games this season and that's good for 3rd in the majors out of all 30 teams. Before being held to 3 runs yesterday, the Marlins had scored 4 runs or more in 7 of their last 9 games. Keep in mind a 4-4 game guarantees of no worse than a 5-4 final and that get this over the total. The over is 5-1 this season in Padres games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. The over is 7-3 in Miami's night games so far this season. Look for both lineups to do plenty of damage in this one given the pitching match-up. 10* OVER the total in San Diego |
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04-22-17 | Canadiens -103 v. Rangers | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NHL Saturday 10* Top Play Montreal Canadiens Money Line (-) @ New York Rangers @ 8:05 ET - The Rangers tried but were unsuccessful in asking the league to move this game to Montreal! All kidding aside, the Rangers are simply a better team on the road than at home. It doesn't make a lot of sense and yet it is a fact. That said, the fact you can get Montreal at a fair price here (instead of laying a big price at home) is a true value in this spot as the Habs look to avoid elimination. Clearly, the Canadiens were outplayed as Game 5 went on and they deserved to lose that one in OT which they did. However, that doesn't mean that Montreal is finished and it doesn't mean that Montreal can't make adjustments and force a Game 7 back to at the Bell Centre. Note that the Canadiens have won 11 of 17 games this season when playing with home loss revenge. Also, prior to New York's home win in Game 4 of this series, the Rangers had lost 9 of their last 11 home games! New York still has not scored a power play goal in this series and the Canadiens have 3 power play markers in the last 3 games. The Rangers have only outshot the Habs once in the first five games of this series. In the Canadiens two wins they outshot NYR by a combined 28 shots. The Habs are well aware of this and will be ultra aggressive tonight and not look like the same team that got out-skated as that game went on Thursday night. I look for a huge bounce back effort on the road in this one Saturday night. 10* MONTREAL |
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04-22-17 | Wizards v. Hawks -2.5 | Top | 98-116 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks (-) vs Washington Wizards @ 5:30 ET - The Hawks lost the turnover battle in each of the first two games and that proved to be the difference maker in the two losses, each by single digits. They truly had a great shot at winning the 2nd game outright but lost the game and the cover late in that one. Look for Atlanta to respond now that they're back home where they've won 4 straight games and also covered 3 straight. The home team has won 6 of the last 7 meetings between these teams and all the games have been decided by at least 3 points. The low line here makes sense considering the Wizards were favored by about 5 or 6 at home but the fact is the low number gives great line value to a solid home team. Atlanta is 93-43 SU in home games the last 3 seasons combined. The Wizards are 11-21 SU the last 32 times they've been a dog. That said, any SU loss is likely to also result in an ATS loss for Washington here considering the low number posted on this game. The Hawks are 3-1 ATS the last 4 times they've been held to 40.5% or less from the field. After a poor shooting performance in Game 2, and hungry and highly motivated for a win to get back in this series and avoid the 'death wish' of a 3-0 hole, look for thee Hawks to respond and get the big home win here. 10* ATLANTA |
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04-22-17 | Yankees v. Pirates +102 | Top | 11-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Saturday 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Pirates Money Line (+) vs New York Yankees @ 4:05 ET - The Pirates won 6-3 yesterday and already the early action here indicates many are backing the Yankees and looking for the Bronx Bombers to bounce right back. Of course the Yankees had been hot but, in addition to a starting pitching edge for Pittsburgh (more on that in a moment) it is also interesting that the Pirates have been an "all or nothing" team this season. What I mean by that is that the Bucs have either swept their opponent or been swept in every single series so far this season. Don't be surprised if that trend continues in this series! The Pirates have Jameson Taillon on the mound this afternoon and he had a 2.86 ERA in his 11 home starts last season while holding opponents to a .228 batting average! Overall, Taillon has been fantastic early this season with a 0.90 ERA in his first 3 starts. The Yankees will have Michael Pineda on the mound and he has pitched great at home but got roughed up in his lone road start and, truth be told, this is nothing new for Pineda. The Yanks right-hander went 2-7 on the road last season and got hit at a .275 clip. In 2015 he was hit at a .293 clip in road games! Look for Pineda to again struggle on the road here as the Yankees drop to 2-6 in road games this season while the Pirates improve to 6-3 in day games on the year. 10* PITTSBURGH |
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04-21-17 | Rockets +2.5 v. Thunder | Top | 113-115 | Win | 100 | 14 h 60 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Friday 10* Top Play Houston Rockets (+) @ Oklahoma City Thunder @ 9:30 ET - Oklahoma City took 19 more shots from the field in Game Two compared to the Rockets and also had fewer turnovers and won the battle of the boards. However, the end result was a loss for the Thunder and that certainly doesn't bode well for Game Three for OKC. The problem for Oklahoma City is they're just not shooting well at all right now. The Thunder have been held to 43.5% or less from the field in 7 straight games and 10 of their last 12. The Rockets are at 49% so far in this series and even though Houston has been held under their season average of 36% from three point land, the Rockets have still managed to win both games. You know a big game from Houston's outside shooters is coming and, that said, when the markets zig I am glad to zag as most everyone is likely to be backing the Thunder here at home since they're in an 0-2 hole and now back home. This ignores the fact that, sans Durant, the Thunder are just 1-5 and the lone OKC win came by just 2 points. That said, giving the Rockets the 2.5 or 3 points they're getting in this match-up, Houston would be on a 6-0 ATS run their last 6 versus Oklahoma City. In fact, the Rockets are on a 10-3 ATS run the last 3 seasons combined versus OKC and that includes 5-1 ATS in games played at Oklahoma City. The Thunder are 5-15 SU this season in games with a posted total of 220 points or more and I again expect the Rockets offensive potency to prove to be took much for OKC here. Westbrook is simply being asked to do too much with this team. Look for the Rockets to improve to 11-4 ATS as an underdog this season. 10* HOUSTON |
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04-21-17 | Giants v. Rockies OVER 9.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 runs in Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants @ 8:40 ET - This total has dropped down from a 10.5 to a 9.5 and I am well aware of the Carlos Gonzalez injury for the Rockies as well as the fact that both the Giants and Rockies have been on huge 'under' streaks. However, the Rockies are back home and the games at Coors Field will start getting 'crazy' again despite a slow start this season. In this case we're getting exceptional line value because Johnny Cueto has great recent numbers versus the Rockies and Tyler Chatwood has great recent numbers versus the Giants but the key is all the most recent match-ups were in pitcher-friendly San Francisco. That is significant because Chatwood got hit hard in his lone home start this season and, last season at Coors Field he got hit at .303 clip in home starts with a 6.12 ERA in 14 outings there! With these lineups getting a quick second look at these starters (both of them pitched in San Fran within the past week), look for the hitters to enjoy a lot more success than they did in the most recent match-ups. Cueto has had some success even in starts at Coors Field but this quick "second look" does him in here while Chatwood continues to find home starts to be a nightmare. Look for the over to improve to 7-3 in Giants road games this season and 23-14 in Rockies games the L3 seasons combined when they are playing with a day off between games. 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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04-21-17 | Bruins -120 v. Senators | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NHL 10* Top Play Boston Bruins Money Line (-) @ Ottawa Senators @ 7:35 ET - The road team has won 3 of the 4 games so far in this series. After winning game one at Ottawa, the Bruins have lost 3 straight and I look for them to bounce back big here and avoid elimination. Boston has won 5 of 7 this season when on a losing streak of 3 games or more. Ottawa has lost 6 of 10 this season when they are off of a shutout win. Also, in a home game with a posted total of 5 goals or less, the Senators have lost 25 of 42 the last 3 seasons combined. Every single game in this series has been decided by a single goal and give credit to Erik Karlsson for being the difference maker for the Sens so far. The Bruins have had enough and I look for them to make some adjustments here for Game 5 that will prove to be the difference maker against Karlsson and company. Also, Karlsson has averaged nearly 29 minutes of ice team in these last 3 games and there has been only one day of rest between games ever since the Game 1 win. For a team relying so heavily on one player, fatigue could be a key factor here and I know the Bruins are going to do their best to make life miserable for Karlsson in this one. 10* BOSTON |
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04-20-17 | Spurs v. Grizzlies +4 | Top | 94-105 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Thursday 10* Top Play Memphis Grizzlies (+) @ San Antonio Spurs @ 9:30 ET - Of course the Memphis head coach made some headlines with his comments about the officiating after Game Two and got fined $30K for said comments. One could argue it may end up being the best $30K he's ever spent! I jest of course but there is some truth to my statement. The Grizzlies are fired up, they are back home, they should get some calls tonight, and let's not forget that Memphis split the season series with the Spurs as they won both games at home. In fact, including regular season and post-season, the home team has now won 6 straight match-ups between these teams! Of course the absence of Tony Allen has hurt the Grizzlies here against the Spurs in this series but this is the do or die game for Memphis as they have chance to either make the series "interesting" tonight or they fall into a 3-0 hole. I believe the former will prove true but I am grabbing the points in case the Grizzlies fall just short and lose a close one. The fact is that Memphis is going to go "all out" tonight and the Spurs, even with the win in Game 2, are still just 4-4 SU (and 3-5 ATS) when leading in a playoff series. The Grizzlies respond big here and I do like for the free throw disparity gap to be closing in a big way in tonight's game. That had a big role in the Spurs only attempting 61 field goals compared to 82 for the Grizzlies and yet San Antonio still won the game by a double digit margin. Big changes coming tonight. 10* MEMPHIS |
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04-20-17 | Royals v. Rangers OVER 9 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Kansas City Royals @ 8:05 ET - Danny Duffy is off to a strong start this season for the Royals but he did allow 8 hits in his most recent road start. Now he gets a start at Texas where he has allowed 9 earned runs in less than 10 innings of work spanning his last two starts. In fact, in his most recent visit to Arlington he walked 6 in less than 4 innings of work. I would not be surprised to see him struggle here as the Rangers are a dangerous hitting team when at home and are already averaging 5.5 runs per game here this season. After a lengthy road trip, Texas is happy to be back home and should hit well tonight. The issue for the Rangers tonight will be their own starting pitching as Andrew Cashner gets the start. He wasn't sharp at all in his first start this season after returning from injury as he had a tough outing at Seattle that certainly could have resulted in a lot more runs. Also, he wrapped up last season struggling so there are some concerns with Cashner right now. The Royals are coming off of a low-scoring series with San Francisco but did notch 10 hits in each of the last two games versus the Giants. Also, on the road this season Kansas City took 2 of 3 at Houston and averaged 5.3 runs per game. In the Royals 6 road games this season only 1 has resulted in under. Also, in 25 road games the past 2 seasons with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs, only 9 (36%) have resulted in an under. The big total here is justified as the ball will carry very well tonight and there is plenty of reasoning to support both of these starters struggling. 10* OVER the total in Texas |
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04-20-17 | Rangers +131 v. Canadiens | Top | 3-2 | Win | 131 | 5 h 54 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NHL Thursday 10* Top Play New York Rangers Money Line (+) @ Montreal Canadiens @ 7:05 ET - The Rangers won 2/3 of their road games this season. So now, one of the best teams in the league this entire season continues to be very undervalued on the road even though they already split the first two games of this series in Montreal. Had the Rangers lost Game 4 in New York the situation would be different but, after losing Game 3 on home ice, NYR showed a lot of resiliency in bouncing back and will carry that momentum north of the border tonight. Keep in mind, playing for the Habs in hockey-mad Montreal is like playing in a pressure cooker and the Canadiens, prior to the Game 4 win, had lost 10 of their last 16 home games. Keep in mind that tough stretch included all the late season match-ups when the pressure was on. Honestly sometimes it's almost easier being on the road when the pressure is that intense and, indeed, scrutiny is huge in Montreal. Facing the road warrior Rangers just intensifies the entire situation and that means all the pressure is on the Canadiens in this one. I'll gladly take the more relaxed team that has played so well on the road this season and will grab this solid underdog price. 10* NEW YORK RANGERS |
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04-19-17 | Wild -107 v. Blues | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 15 h 16 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NHL Wednesday 10* Top Play Minnesota Wild Money Line (-) @ St Louis Blues @ 9:35 ET - The Wild are down 3-0 in this series and, just like the Blue Jackets last night, I expect them to avoid getting swept out of the post-season. Minnesota has outshot the Blues by a margin of 38 shots on goal in this series. Even though Jake Allen has been fantastic between the pipes for St Louis (just 1 goal allowed each game), it is not as if Minnesota's Devan Dubnyk has not played well. In fact, he has allowed just 2 goals in each game. The shots on goal edge shows you that the Wild have actually outplayed the Blues for lengthy stretches throughout this series. The fact that they are down 3-0 certainly has been a shocker but with one win they know they get a chance to head back home for Game 5 and so Minnesota is certainly not hanging their heads here. Look for a big performance from the Wild here as they finally get a few more past Allen tonight. Even with winning Games 2 and 3 after taking the opener, St Louis is still just 3-6 in recent seasons when leading in a playoff series. Also, the Wild have gone from being a 2 to 1 favorite on home ice in Game 2 to basically a pick'em price in Game 4. That is what you call value and I'll take it because this is one angry, determined, and talented road dog taking the ice in St Louis tonight. 10* MINNESOTA WILD |
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04-19-17 | Hawks +5.5 v. Wizards | Top | 101-109 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Year - Rickenbach NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks (+) @ Washington Wizards @ 7 ET - The Hawks, after losing game one despite outrebounding the Wizards and earning 22 more free throw attempts and having the stronger bench play, will make the proper adjustments in game two. The two day break should favor Atlanta and they're plenty familiar with John Wall and company and can't let them run wild like they did in the 3rd quarter on Sunday. That was the difference maker in the game as the Hawks looked strong in the first half. Atlanta is 27-11 SU when playing with 2 days of rest between games. Also, prior to the game one result, the dog had gotten the cash in 5 of the last 7 meetings between these teams. The Hawks 4 prior visits to Washington had resulted in 1 outright win and two losses by 4 or less points. Good value with the points here considering that Atlanta, before a meaningless season finale, had gone 6-2 SU with one of the 2 losses by just a bucket. Washington had gone just 8-9 SU to wrap up the regular season and 5 of their last 9 wins this season came by 5 points or less. The defense of the Wizards let them down late in the season while the Hawks defense had tightened things up to close out the season. In other words, don't overreact to the Game 1 result. The Wizards took Game 1 but I certainly would not be surprised to see the Hawks even this up with an outright win and there is definitely added value with the generous points being offered. Looking at the last 14 games between these teams there has not been a single occurrence where one has beaten the other by more than 4 points in back to back games. I like those odds! 10* ATLANTA HAWKS |
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04-19-17 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
Total Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:05 ET - Francisco Liriano is off of a fantastic start for the Blue Jays but he previously had an awful start at Tampa Bay. Even though he is back at home like he was in his dominating effort versus the Orioles last week, he faces a red hot Boston team. The Red Sox are 7-3 in their last 10 games and have averaged 5.1 runs per game during this stretch. The BoSox have averaged 11.8 hits per game in their last 8 games. I don't see Liriano shutting down this Boston lineup with how hot they've been. The Red Sox will need all the runs they can get tonight because I expect Rick Porcello to get pounded. The Blue Jays lineup is finally heating up as Toronto has averaged 10 hits per game in their last 4 games and the over was 3-1 in those 4 games. Porcello has been extremely hittable this season as he's allowed 19 hits (including 5 homers) in his two starts even though these outings have spanned just 10 and 1/3 innings. Also he has had some struggles at Toronto throughout his career and, last season, Porcello went 13-1 at home but on the road he is only a combined 13-11 the past two seasons and that included a 5.56 ERA on the road in 2015. The Jays have scored 4 runs or more in 3 of their last 4 games and the Red Sox have scored 4 runs or more in 7 of their last 8 games. Of course a 4-4 game ensures no worse than a 5-4 final and also like the trending of the home plate umpire in this one as he's been trending over in recent games behind home plate. A tight strike zone could frustrate Liriano as he has walked 6 in 7 innings this season and he's walked 12 in the 12 innings spanning his last two starts against the BoSox. The Blue Jays bullpen has a 5.11 ERA on the season and the Red Sox pen was a little shaky last night. Look for more of the same Wednesday evening. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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04-18-17 | Indians v. Twins OVER 9 | Top | 11-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Indians @ 8:10 ET - Josh Tomlin is not right, to say the least, early this season. The Indians right-hander has given up 13 earned runs in 6 and 1/3 innings in his first two starts this season and until he shows signs of turning things around I'll fade him. In this case I am fading him by using the over because I also expect Phil Hughes to get rocked. The Twins righty gave up 2 homers at Detroit in his most recent start and was fortunate the damage wasn't worse than the 4 earned runs allowed in less than 6 innings of work. Hughes had a surprisingly good start against the Indians in the most recent meeting but prior to that he allowed 11 earned run on 19 hits in 9 and 1/3 innings of work and he's facing an Indians lineup that is starting to get it going again with an average of 11 hits per game in their last 5 games. As for the Twins, they did pound Tomlin the last time they faced him and he's in very poor current form. Look for the over to improve to 78-52 (60%) the last 3 seasons in Twins games against teams with a losing record while Cleveland improves to 4-0 to the over this season in their road games where the line is between -125 and +125. The wind is expected to be blowing out to right in this game! Cool evening but rather hitter friendly. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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04-18-17 | Bulls +7 v. Celtics | Top | 111-97 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Tuesday 10* Top Play Chicago Bulls (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 8 ET - The normal reaction here would be to back the Celtics at home and looking to avoid going into an 0-2 hole in this series. However, Boston showed some very concerning signs in Game One and even if Chicago doesn't again get the upset here, the points should prove to be enough for the cover. Boston got dominated on the glass on Sunday and they've been losing the battle of the boards far too often of late while the Bulls are on a streak where they've been a rebounding machine the past few weeks. Chicago also has been playing rock solid defense with only 89.4 points allowed per game in their last 5 games. Boston has struggled at times on the defensive end late in the season and that was expected to potentially change come playoff time but perhaps the added distraction of Isaiah Thomas' sister having passed away in a car accident is impacting the team. In any event, the Bulls certainly look like the hungrier, fresher team and Chicago is on a 9-4 ATS run in playoff games while the Celtics are on a 2-9 SU run in playoff games! The Bulls are 27-17 ATS as an underdog this season while Boston is 2-7 ATS this season when they enter a game having played each of their three prior games at home. Look for the hungry road dog to be in this one all the way. They're aggressive, they've got some key veteran players, and they're confident as they've won 8 of their last 10 games. 10* CHICAGO |
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04-18-17 | Penguins v. Blue Jackets OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
PA Insider - Rickenbach NHL Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Columbus Blue Jackets vs Pittsburgh Penguins @ 7:35 ET - Of course the Blue Jackets are in desperation mode here as they down 3-0 in the series. The problem with backing Columbus in this spot is that their work in their own zone simply can't be trusted. The Blue Jackets definitely are talented up front and they also score particularly well at home (3.2 goals per game this season) but they've allowed 3.7 goals per game in their last 9 games. The Pens are rolling with confidence right now and they have no pressure since they are up 3-0 and would still be in good shape even with a loss Tuesday. That said, Pittsburgh won't be afraid to really test the Jackets here and that is why I would not be surprised to see the Pens force an uptempo game here and look to continue to take it to Columbus with their skilled forwards up front. That sets this one up nicely to truly be a barnburner. When playing with home loss revenge this season the Blue Jackets have had just 6 unders in 16 games. When on a losing streak of 3 games or more Columbus has had just 15 unders in 40 games. In their last 19 April games, the Jackets have had just 6 unders. The Penguins, when hot, have a tendency to stay hot and the over is 27-13 this season when the Pens are off of a game where they scored 4 goals or more. Also, Penguins games against divisional foes are 21-11 to the over this season. There is a reason most playoff game totals have been set at 5 goals but this one is again 5.5 goals. Look for a barnburner here. 10* OVER the total in Columbus |
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04-17-17 | Grizzlies v. Spurs OVER 188 | Top | 82-96 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
SA Insider - Rickenbach NBA Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Antonio Spurs vs Memphis Grizzlies @ 9:30 ET - The Grizzlies only scored 52 points in the final 3 quarters of Saturday's loss and yet the game still went over the total. I certainly expect Memphis to shoot the ball better in Game 2 but, as mentioned in my Game 1 pick on the Spurs, the absence of Tony Allen is really hurting the Grizzlies defense. San Antonio erupted for 111 points in Saturday's easy win and I expect another explosion on offense tonight. The series takes two days off after tonight's game and the Spurs want to make another statement before the series heads to Memphis. That said, San Antonio isn't going to take their foot off of the gas in this one and, with the Grizzlies unlikely to be held to such an awful performance from the field again, this one should fly over the total. This season, when the Spurs allow 85 points or less in a game, the over is 5-1 in their next game. The Grizzlies are a perfect 5-0 to the over the last 5 times they've been held under 100 points in a game. Take advantage of the low total posted on this game as well as the downward line move as it has opened up some nice line value on the over in this one. 10* OVER the total in San Antonio |
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04-17-17 | Blackhawks -104 v. Predators | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NHL Monday 10* Top Play Chicago Blackhawks Money Line (-) @ Nashville Predators @ 9:35 ET - The Blackhawks didn't just lose on Saturday, they got thoroughly embarrassed in a 5-0 home shutout and got booed off the ice in their own barn. Needless to say, a response can be expected after a game like that and there is also a key angle that supports my expectation that Chicago will come out flying all over the ice tonight. Of course the playoffs are a new season but, in the regular season, the Blackhawks were a PERFECT 7-0 when they entered a game off of back to back losses where they were held to 2 goals or less in both games. In this case, after losing their first two games of the post-season in shutout fashion, that angle is certainly in effect here. Additionally, though it didn't pan out Saturday, the Blackhawks have gone 7-2 the L3 seasons combined when they enter a playoff game trailing in the series. Give the Predators credit for how they've played in the first two games but they undoubtedly are going to face a different level of play from the Blackhawks Monday and we're getting line value here since Chicago is on the road. Keep in mind, the road team has won 6 of the last 9 games between these teams. Also, even with Saturday's win, Nashville has still lost 4 of 5 this season when off of a shutout win. Additionally, when off of a game where they scored 4 goals or more, the Preds have lost 19 of 29 this season (and 51 of 80 the L3 seasons combined). Look for the proud Hawks to respond HUGE on Monday night. 10* CHICAGO |
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04-17-17 | Indians v. Twins OVER 8 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 8 runs in Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Indians @ 8:10 ET - The Indians Danny Salazar has pitched well early this season but in last season's 3 starts versus the Twins he struggled in each outing and ended up allowing 12 earned runs in the less than 11 innings of work spanning the 3 outings! As for Kyle Gibson, he is struggling early this season with an 8.00 ERA in his first two starts and now faces a team that has given him fits in recent meetings. The Indians hammered Gibson for 10 runs (all earned) on 20 hits in the less than 11 innings of work spanning his last 2 starts against them. That included 3 homers. By the way, Salazar's numbers against the Twins include 5 homers allowed in his last 2 starts against them. The weather will be chilly this evening with a light wind blowing in but that won't be enough to stop these two lineups as they continue to feast on starting pitchers they have enjoyed great success against. With both teams off of frustrating low-scoring losses yesterday, look for a breakout game from each lineup today. The over is 77-51 in Twins games against teams with a losing record. The over is 4-1 this season in Indians games against a right-handed starter and also a long-term 84-65 in divisional games. The Indians have averaged 12 hits per game in their last 4 games. The Twins had averaged 5.6 runs per game in their 5 home games this season before yesterday's poor performance at the plate. They'll bounce back Monday. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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04-16-17 | Bulls v. Celtics -6 | Top | 106-102 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Sunday 10* Top Play Boston Celtics (-) vs Chicago Bulls @ 6:30 ET - The markets reacted, as expected, to the news that Isaiah Thomas' sister tragically passed away in a car accident early Saturday morning. Now a line that was as high as a -8 has dropped to a -6. This is as if bettors have intimate knowledge of the family, how close knit they are or are not, and how Thomas will react to this. News flash: they really don't know any of this. That said, Thomas is going to play Sunday and I expect his teammates to also rally around him and I also can tell you that when looking at some of the historical events with this family and Thomas being on the East Coast and his sister on the West Coast I think it is evident that this is not going to be nearly as impacting as many think it would be. In any event, I would have been fine laying 8 here but am even happier to lay just 6. By the way, I don't mean to make light of the passing of someone in the Thomas family. I express my condolences on that. I am just saying it's unlikely to be anywhere as impacting to Thomas as some think it may be. If anything it is likely to drive he and his Celtics teammates (on his behalf) to play even harder on Sunday evening. I know the Bulls made a nice late season push and have some playoff veterans. However, I also know that the Celtics earned this #1 seed and are now being severely undervalued even though they have the home court edge. The Celtics went 11-6 ATS against Central Division opponents this season. The Bulls went 3-8 SU (and 4-7 ATS) this season when off of a game where they allowed 90 points or less. The home team has won each of the last 7 meetings between these teams and the average margin of victory has been 8 points. Look for the home team to get it done again and 11 of the Celtics last 14 wins have been by 7 points or more. 12 of the Bulls last 15 losses have come by 7 points or more. 10* BOSTON |
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04-16-17 | Blazers v. Warriors OVER 219.5 | Top | 109-121 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Golden State Warriors vs Portland Trail Blazers @ 3:30 ET - This total was as high as a 223 and now has dropped below 220. I like the added value on the over here in a game where the Warriors are unlikely to take their foot off of the gas. This is a playoff rematch from last May and 4 of those 5 games went over the total. Also, all 4 of their regular season match-ups this season totaled at least 224 points. The Trail Blazers averaged 108 points per game in the regular season and the Warriors averaged 119 points per game in their home games. There is no reason this game can't be a 123-108 type game which would have it landing right around the current point spread of -14.5 in favor of Golden State. That would also have it going over the total by about a dozen points which is why this selection is a top play for me. Excellent line value here and the over is 15-8 this season when Portland has faced a team that averages 106 points or more per game. Also, should this total creep back up again, the Blazers are 14-8 to the over in games with a posted total of 220 points or more this season. The Warriors are averaging 126 points per game in their last 6 meetings with the Trail Blazers and they want to make a statement here at home in Game One which means plenty of run and gun with big points expected here. 10* OVER the total in Golden State |
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04-16-17 | Wild -108 v. Blues | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 54 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NHL Sunday 10* Top Play Minnesota Wild Money Line (-) @ St Louis Blues @ 3:05 ET - The Wild really let out some frustration at the end of Game 2 and they're fired up heading into St Louis for this Sunday afternoon match-up. Yes the Blues are up 2-0 in this series and now on home ice but there is a reason this game is priced the way it is. I just don't see the Wild going down 3 games to 0 in this series and I feel the "venting" they did in Game 2 will serve them well here. Minnesota is fired up and they have outshot the Blues 76 to 48 so far in this series. Even with the win in Game 2 Friday, St Louis is still an ugly 2-6 in recent seasons when they are leading in a playoff series. When the Wild enter a game on a losing streak of 2 games and they were held to 1 goal or less in at least of the games, they've gone 3-1 this season and the 3 wins came by a combined scored of 16 to 6. Look for some road revenge in this one as Minny drops the Blues to 2-7 when St Louis is leading in a playoff series. 10* MINNESOTA |
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04-15-17 | Grizzlies v. Spurs -9.5 | Top | 82-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Saturday 10* Top Play San Antonio Spurs (-) vs Memphis Grizzlies @ 8 ET - Memphis gave the Spurs some trouble in the regular season and, as a result, we're being given some line value here. Let's not forget that in the post-season last year San Antonio ripped the Grizzlies by an average margin of 22 points per game in an absolute shellacking of Memphis. While the Spurs are not necessarily the same team as last year, they are still unquestionably one of the league's best teams and, in game one, they host a Grizzlies team that relies on physical play and defense to overcome it's offensive shortcomings. That said, Memphis has a major problem here as they lost Tony Allen to injury in their final regular season game. He is a veteran defensive stalwart that the Grizzlies absolutely had to have to have a real shot at slowing down Kawhi Leonard. With Allen out, Leonard is going to run roughshod over the Grizzlies and let's also not forget the Spurs are one of the top three point shooting teams in the league. This one is likely to quickly turn into a home rout as San Antonio takes advantage of an Allen-less Grizz team that lost 9 of its last 12 games. Memphis went 1-11 SU (and ATS!) when playing with 2 days of rest this season. The Spurs are 9-2 in the last 11 meetings with the Grizzlies and the average margin of victory in those 9 games was 15.7 points per win! Look for another home rout here! 10* SAN ANTONIO |
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04-15-17 | Predators v. Blackhawks -1.5 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
Puck Line Punisher - Rickenbach NHL 10* Top Play Chicago Blackhawks Puck Line -1.5 goals +180 vs Nashville Predators @ 8:05 ET Saturday - I know it may seem a little "scary" to lay the 1.5 goals with the Blackhawks here, this is a huge plus money return being offered and Chicago needs to bounce back at home after dropping game one of this series. The Hawks simply can't afford to go down 0-2 to the Preds and they are fired up about responding here. Should we expect them to respond? You bet! They went 7-1 the past 2 seasons when they were trailing in a playoff series. 4 of Nashville's last 6 losses have come by a margin of 2 goals or more. 13 of the Blackhawks last 17 wins have been decided by a margin of 2 goals or more. As you can see from those stats, if you're expecting Chicago to win here, there are strong odds that point toward the win coming by at least two goals. The Blackhawks are so fired up after last year's first round exit versus St Louis that I am certain they are going to respond in a huge way here against the Predators. By the way, 5 of the Hawks last 7 wins have come by a margin of at least 2 goals. Also, the Preds went 0-4 this season when off of a shutout win. When on the road after a shutout win, the Predators lost the 2 games by a combined score of 10 to 3 with one loss by 3 goals and the other defeat by 4 goals. I look for a another blowout loss here. 10* CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS puck line -1.5 goals |
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04-15-17 | Angels v. Royals OVER 9 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
Total Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Angels @ 7:15 ET - Wind blowing out today at Kauffman Stadium and two starting pitchers likely to struggle. Also, before yesterday's under, the Angels had gone over the total in 5 straight games. Also, after yesterday's 7-1 loss, LA has allowed an average of 6 runs per game in their last 7 games. The Angels hitting has slowed down the last few things but they do have a potent lineup and they should enjoy success here. Nate Karns gets the start for the Royals and he is winless with a 5.82 ERA and a 1.65 WHIP in his 3 career starts against the Angels. Speaking of struggling with match-ups, Los Angeles will have Matt Shoemaker on the mound for this one and he is winless with an 8.34 ERA and a 1.99 WHIP in his 5 career starts against the Royals. Also, Shoemaker has struggled early this season with as many walks as strikeouts in his 2 starts. The over is 4-1 in Shoemaker's five starts against Kansas City in his career and the over is a perfect 3-0 in Karns 3 starts against the Angels. The Royals bullpen is 0-3 with a 7.28 ERA this season and I look for Karns to get knocked out early while Shoemaker also gets pounded on a hitter-friendly evening at a hitter-friendly venue. Hopefully they get this game in before the storms move in to the area because this is an ideal situation for what should be a slugfest. 10* OVER the total in Kansas City |
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04-15-17 | Bucks v. Raptors OVER 199 | Top | 97-83 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
Total Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Raptors vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 5:30 ET - Fresh legs here for both teams of course with 2 days off before the playoffs begin. That is noteworthy in this case as the over is 10-2 this season when the Raptors enter a game with 2 days off between games. I like the fact that this total has dropped from an opener of 203.5 down to a 199 as of early gameday morning. This is offering us solid line value in this spot. Toronto is off of an under in their most recent game but previously had gone over the total in 6 of their last 8 games. The Bucks had some unders late in the season but their better defensive games had a lot to do with the opposition. In fact, in their last 3 road games against playoff teams, Milwaukee has allowed an average of 109 points per game! In the Raptors last 8 home games, they've allowed an average of 107 points per game. You can see why I am liking the value here with this over as all hands are on deck for both teams and the Raptors are a different team when at home in the post-season. They can put up huge points and get red hot from the outside and this has been particularly true when playing north of the border! The Raptors are 26-15 to the over in home games this season and also went 18-9 to the over in their games against teams with a winning record. The Bucks wrapped up the regular season with an ugly loss but are 14-7 to the over this season when off of a loss by a double digit margin. Take advantage of the line value here. Raptors are going to run and gun in this game and force Milwaukee to match their fast tempo. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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04-14-17 | Brewers v. Reds OVER 9 | Top | 10-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
Total Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 7:10 ET - The Reds will have Scott Feldman on the mound and he's off of a surprisingly strong start at St Louis in his most recent outing. However, prior to that outing, the veteran right-hander struggled against the Phillies right here at Great American Ballpark. Feldman, over the past three seasons, got hit a clip of .266, .275, and .282 so, as you can see, he's getting a little more hittable with each and every season! The last time Feldman faced the Brewers he got rocked last season in an ugly outing that lasted only 4 innings. The Reds should also enjoy plenty of success at the plate here as Tommy Milone is on the mound for the Brewers. The Milwaukee southpaw had a very tough time with the Cubs in his opening start and in, his last 3 starts dating back to last season, has allowed 13 earned runs in less than 13 innings of work. Prior to scoring just 1 run yesterday, the Reds had averaged 7.5 runs per game in their last 4 games and their offense will get right back on track here. As for the Brewers, with yesterday's 5-1 win, they have scored at least 4 runs in 4 of their last 5 games. The over is 17-10 when Milwaukee enters a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more. Also, the Brewers are 16-8 to the over when they are on the road with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. Despite a slow start in terms of runs in home games so far, the Reds are 91-64 to the over in home games the past 2+ seasons. Each of Milone's last 3 starts have gone over the total and the Reds are 3rd in the majors with a .582 slugging percentage against southpaws this season. 10* OVER the total in Cincinnati |
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04-14-17 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -130 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -130 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach MLB Friday 10* Top Play Toronto Blue Jays Money Line (-) vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7:05 ET - After opening up as high as a -155, the Blue Jays have dropped to as low as a -128 favorite as of Friday morning. Of course, the Jays have the fewest wins in the majors this season so, from that standpoint, it is understandable. However, in this particular case, Toronto has a decided pitching advantage and I expect that to result into a home rout here! The Orioles have southpaw Wade Miley on the mound and he walked 7 in his first start of the season last week. Also, the left-hander has a 1-4 record and 5.57 ERA in 6 career starts versus the Blue Jays. As for Toronto, they have Aaron Sanchez on the mound for this one and he has allowed a TOTAL of only 3 earned runs in 19 innings in his last 3 starts versus the Orioles. Also, Sanchez was rock solid in his season opener with just 1 earned run allowed on only 4 hits in 7 innings at Tampa Bay. Over the past two seasons Sanchez has allowed 1 earned run or less 14 times in his starts. This is tops in the American League! Even though the Blue Jays have been struggling at the plate, the Orioles have had their fair share of struggles too as they have tallied 7 hits or less in 5 of their last 7 games! Couple that factor with the large pitching edge here and there is great value here with the small home fave! Also, the Orioles are 29-46 the last 3 seasons in road games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. The Blue Jays went 105-68 in home games the past two seasons and they'll bounce back after an 0-3 start at the Rogers Centre this season. 10* TORONTO on the money line early Friday evening |
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04-14-17 | Rangers v. Canadiens -144 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
Rickenbach NHL Friday 10* Top Play Montreal Canadiens Money Line (-) vs New York Rangers @ 7:05 ET - The Habs jumped on the Rangers early on Wednesday but despite a huge edge in shots on goal early it was New York that got the early lead and then managed to hang onto it the rest of the way. Give the Rangers credit for getting the job done but expect the Canadiens to come out even stronger tonight and also get more traffic in front of Henrik Lundqvist as there were rebound opportunities for Montreal but they need guys there to punch them in. The Canadiens have won 13 of 17 when off of a loss by a margin of 2 goals or more this season. The Habs had won 6 of 8 before that home shutout and the Rangers, prior to winning 2 straight, had lost 7 of their 9 prior games. This a good price to have on the home team coming off of shutout in Game 1 and that has me elevating this play to my highest rating. 10* Top Play MONTREAL on the money line early Friday evening |
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04-13-17 | A's v. Royals -127 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach MLB Thursday 10* Top Play Kansas City Royals Money Line (-) vs Oakland A's @ 8:15 ET - The A's are starting Jesse Hahn but don't be fooled by the decent numbers he put up in last week's start versus the Rangers. When he entered that game Texas was already killing Oakland as the Rangers had jumped out to an 8-0 lead after the first two innings. When a team has that big of a lead early the hitters often change their approach at the plate. Hahn certainly benefited from that and he's coming off of an awful spring training. Also, last season he went 0-3 with a 13.17 ERA in his 4 road starts. The prior season he went 2-5 with a 4.72 ERA in his 10 night starts. Simply put, things have not gone well for Hahn since he put on an Oakland uniform for the 2015 season. That said, look for the Royals to pound him here and I do expect Jason Vargas to enjoy solid success against the Oakland sticks. The southpaw has complete game shutout victories over the Athletics in two of his last three starts against them. Also, the left-hander had a solid start to open up the 2017 season as he held the Astros to just 1 earned run in 6 innings at Houston last week. Oakland is 32-59 against left-handed starters the past 2+ seasons. Even though the Royals have gotten off to a tough start this season, that is merely serving to give us great line value here with them as a short home favorite. Kansas City has a huge pitching edge in this match-up in my opinion and this is still a Royals team that is a combined 105-67 in home games the past 2+ seasons. I don't foresee them getting swept at home in a 3-game set that is their first home series of the season. 10* KANSAS CITY ROYALS |
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04-12-17 | Mavs +8 v. Grizzlies | Top | 100-93 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play Dallas Mavericks (+) @ Memphis Grizzlies @ 8:05 ET - The Mavericks will likely play without Dirk Nowitzki and Jose Juan Barea tonight and, as a result, this line has jumped tremendously. This is even though Memphis has no concern about this game whatsoever and the Grizzlies head coach admitted he is spending zero time worrying about the Mavericks and all of his focus is going into their upcoming playoff opponent, the Spurs. The hungry role players that will be on the floor tonight for Dallas are playing their final game of the the season. Conversely, the Grizzlies players (including the bench) are excited about the upcoming post-season and are just trying to stay sharp in tonight's game. I give the Mavericks a great shot at winning this game outright as the players who are on the floor tonight will be giving it their all and looking to close out the season with a win while the Grizzlies only concern is staying healthy for a big match-up with the Spurs coming up. By the way, Memphis has lost 8 of their last 11 games and have gone 1-10 SU and ATS this season when playing with two days of rest between games. The Mavericks are 15-10 ATS this season when off of a double digit loss and they'll be the more focused team in tonight's game. Grab the big dog value in a game where distracted Memphis just isn't likely to score enough to get a big cover no matter who the Mavs have on the floor. The Grizzlies have only reached triple digits 4 times in their last 11 games! This should be an ugly game where there is solid line value with the big points! 10* DALLAS plus the points Wednesday evening |
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04-12-17 | Blue Jackets v. Penguins OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 8 m | Show |
PA Insider - Rickenbach NHL Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 5.5 goals in Pittsburgh Penguins vs Columbus Blue Jackets @ 7:35 ET - When you think of playoff hockey you think of tighter, lower scoring games and strong goaltending. While that is all very true, it is also a generalization that is not without exceptions. In this case, and especially with Evgeni Malkin expected back for the Pens, I expect plenty of offense here. The Blue Jackets allowed an average of 3.5 goals per game in their final 6 games of the season. The Penguins allowed an average of 3.7 goals per game in their final 7 games of the season. Neither team is known for particularly stellar defense or goaltending but both teams certainly are very dangerous in terms of offensive firepower. The Pens averaged 3.8 goals per game at home this season and the Blue Jackets averaged 2.9 goals per game on the road. In first round playoff action only 3 of 10 Columbus games have stayed under the total. Also, they're 11-4 to the over in April games the past 3 seasons combined. Pittsburgh is 7-3 to the over this season when playing with two days of rest between games and the Penguins are happy to be back home and have gone 5-1 to the over this season when they enter a game having played each of their three prior games on the road. The over is 17-9 in Pens home games with a posted total of 5.5 goals this season and I look for a little quicker "pace" to this game than many are expecting as there certainly is no "feeling out" process here as these two divisional foes know each other very well. 10* OVER 5.5 goals in Pittsburgh early Wednesday evening |
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04-12-17 | Brewers v. Blue Jays UNDER 9 | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
Total Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 7:05 ET - Because this is an interleague match-up there is a lack of familiarity between most of the hitters and the pitchers they are facing. Lack of familiarity almost always favors the pitchers and Marcus Stroman has never faced the Brewers and Chase Anderson has never faced the Blue Jays. That's a big edge for the starting pitchers and Stroman's 19 outs in his first start this season featured 17 via the strikeout or on the ground. As you can see, he was dominant. As for Anderson, he had a fantastic quality start in his first outing and, keep in mind, he did go 5-1 with a 3.02 ERA after the All Star break last season so he is carrying momentum from last season right into this season. The Blue Jays only had 5 hits yesterday and have now been held to 7 hits or less in 5 of their last 6 games. Even though the Brewers hit the ball better yesterday, it was preceded by them averaging just 6 hits per game in their 4 prior games and Milwaukee is known for striking out a lot. In other words, facing Stroman is a nightmare match-up for the Brewers and I also expect the Blue Jays struggles at the plate to continue. Look for the under to improve to 6-2 in Blue Jays games this season and 5-2 in the Brewers last 7 games as the struggles at the plate continue for both clubs. The under is a long-term 92-58 in Milwaukee's games played on turf and the under is 3-0 this season in Brewers games where the posted total is 9 or 9.5 runs. The under is a long-term 45-31 in Jays home games where the posted total is 9 or 9.5 runs. 10* UNDER the total in Toronto early Wednesday evening |
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04-11-17 | Padres v. Rockies OVER 12 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres @ 8:40 ET - Mild temperatures in Denver this afternoon. Dry air as usual. Wind blowing out to left field at Coors Field. Rockies rookie 22 year old Antonio Senzatela making his first ever start in Colorado (was on road last week) and veteran Jered Weaver coming off of an outing where he had more walks than strikeouts plus allowed 2 homers in 5 innings in a pitcher-friendly venue. Add it all up and you have the perfect ingredients for a slugfest tonight in Colorado. Ironically, because he had spent his entire career in the American League before this season, Weaver has never started at Coors Field either. In extremely hitter-friendly conditions tonight, I expect both hurlers to struggle in their first ever experience with this crazy ball park. Weaver just doesn't get many strikeouts and that means plenty of contact (which leads to problems at Coors Field) and Senzatela was not a strikeout pitcher in the minors and just because he struck out 6 Brewers at Milwaukee does not mean that will translate to the same success here. The Brewers are known for striking out too much and already lead the league in that category this season. San Diego however has already improved in that category early this season and is in the middle of the pack. Stats and trends won't necessarily back this play up but pitchers generally do struggle badly in their first starts at Coors and Senzatela was fortunate to get out of a first inning bases loaded jam in his MLB debut and Weaver got hit at a .323 clip in night games last season! 10* OVER the total in Colorado Tuesday night |
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04-11-17 | Nuggets +1.5 v. Mavs | Top | 109-91 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Tuesday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (+) @ Dallas Mavericks @ 8:35 ET - The Nuggets playoff hopes got dashed by a last second super long three pointer against the Thunder and, as disappointing as that is, Denver knew their post-season chances were slim. The fact is, the way they lost to OKC is going to have the Nuggets fired up here. That was their final home game of the season and Oklahoma City ruined it for them. What is the only thing that Denver can do now to make up for it per se? They can beat the Mavericks in their home finale and at least ruin someone else's. You can bet (literally!) that the Nuggets are geared up to do just that here. Look for a strong effort from the road team here as they look to avenge a 20 point loss in their only other visit to Dallas this season. It's time for redemption and they want to do to the Mavs what the Thunder just did to them. The Nuggets had covered 4 straight and 11 of 15 before that loss. Conversely, the Mavericks come into this game having lost 4 straight and 8 of their last 9. The Mavs have seen each of their last 3 games go over the total as they've allowed an average of 113 points per game with some sub-par defense included! The past 3 seasons combined, when the Mavericks are on a 3-0 run to the over, they have gone 8-16 ATS! The D is just not there for the Mavs right now, and the Nuggets will bring their D in the Big D tonight as they look to let out some frustration. Look for the Nuggets to improve to 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games against teams with a losing record. 10* DENVER |
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04-10-17 | Hornets +7 v. Bucks | Top | 79-89 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA Monday 10* Top Play Charlotte Hornets (+) @ Milwaukee Bucks @ 8:05 ET - The Bucks just clinched a playoff spot and I know they have some motivation to win here because of seeding for the playoffs but I also know they're laying big points here considering the Hornets just got eliminated from the post-season over the weekend and would love nothing more than to upset the Bucks tonight. Charlotte will be motivated by the opportunity to push the Bucks down a little in the standings. Keep in mind, this is a unique situation as Milwaukee just got in this past weekend and Charlotte just got knocked out over the weekend. That makes this a bit of a revenge spot for the Hornets who also do have true revenge here because they lost at home to the Bucks two weeks ago. The road team has covered 6 straight meetings in this series and the away team has notched the outright SU win on the road in 5 straight meetings. Even though the Bucks are expected to have Malcolm Brogdon back tonight his back may flare up on him again and he is truly not 100% and, also, Giannis Antetokounmpo is still dealing with an illness. That is why, even though Kemba Walker of the Hornets may not play tonight, I still like the road dog to put up one helluva fight in this game and that should be enough for the road cash even if they fall short of the upset win. It's payback time here. 10* CHARLOTTE |
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04-10-17 | Mets v. Phillies +135 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (+) vs New York Mets @ 7:05 ET - The Mets will be the popular choice tonight but are batting just .200 this season with a .325 slugging percentage and that has them ranked as one of the most anemic offenses in the majors so far this season. As for the Phillies, their .480 slugging percentage ranks them 4th among all teams in the league. The Mets will have Jacob deGrom on the mound and he's certainly a solid hurler but prior to throwing a gem at Philly last year, he did allow 6 earned runs in less than 3 innings of work in his prior start at Philadelphia the prior year. Also, the Phillies Jerad Eickhoff has proven to be a solid starter in his own right. The Phils right-hander has a 2.66 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in the starts he has made against the Mets in his career. Also, he held them to a total of just 5 earned runs in the 19 innings spanning his 3 starts against New York last season. With the Phillies having the home field edge and the better bats so far this season, this is great home dog value being offered. The Phils also have the advantage of playing yesterday afternoon at home against the Nationals while the Mets were doing battle with the Marlins in New York in yesterday's lone night game. The Mets did get the win but they haven't won back to back games all season. The Phillies are loaded with confidence after knocking off Strasburg and the Nats yesterday and winning the prior game 17-3 over Washington. This looks like another good spot for the undervalued Phillies. 10* Top Play PHILADELPHIA |
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04-09-17 | Hurricanes v. Flyers OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NHL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Philadelphia Flyers vs Carolina Hurricanes @ 7:05 ET - The Flyers are off of a 4-2 win versus Columbus that went over the total yesterday. The Hurricanes lost 5-4 to the Blues yesterday in a game that very easily flew over the total. I expect more of the same on Sunday. Neither team has any "playoff pressure" here as those hopes have faded long ago. Now, in the season finale, look for plenty of offense to be on display. The Hurricanes are expected to have Eddie Lack between the pipes and he has an ugly .861 save percentage and has allowed 3.5 goals per game in his 6 divisional starts this season. The Flyers will have Anthony Stolarz between the pipes and the over is 2-1 in his 3 starts this season. His most recent start was a 4-3 loss to the Rangers. In 12 Sunday games this season the Flyers have stayed under in only 4 games. That's a rate of just 33% to the under. The Hurricanes have allowed 3.8 goals per game in their last 5 games. Also, the over is a perfect 4-0 this season in match-ups between these clubs and the games have averaged 7 goals per game. Going further back, the last 6 times that Philly has hosted the Canes there has only been 1 under! Look for a loosely played affair in this season finale with plenty of open ice and plenty of goal scoring opportunities for both of these clubs. 10* OVER the total in Philadelphia |
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04-09-17 | Mavs +1.5 v. Suns | Top | 111-124 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Sunday 10* Top Play Dallas Mavericks (+) @ Phoenix Suns @ 6:05 ET - The first numbers posted on this one had Dallas as a 2.5 point favorite and they are now a 1.5 point underdog as of early Sunday morning. With a full 4 point move here we are even getting more line value in a game where the Mavs are highly motivated and catching the Suns at the right time for a big win. Keep in mind, Phoenix is off of their huge win over Russell Westbrook and company as they knocked off the Thunder by a 120-99 final on Friday night. Prior to that win the Suns had lost 13 straight and they could definitely come out a little flat here. Dallas has lost two home match-ups with Phoenix this season as they Mavericks only win over the Suns was a victory in a neutral site game played in Mexico. Phoenix is 2-11 SU in Sunday games this season while the Mavericks are 9-1 SU (and 10-0 ATS!) in Sunday games this season. I don't use a lot of "day of the week" trends but the Sunday trends are worth paying attention too because the Sunday games involves two key factors. That is, how a team handles things the night before (being that it is a Saturday night) and then how they prep for what is generally an earlier than usual tip-off the next day. As you can see from those numbers above, Dallas has handled it well this season and Phoenix certainly has not. Also, going further back, the last 3 seasons combined Dallas is 24-11 SU in Sunday games while Phoenix is 11-27 SU! The Mavs will be hungry to bounce back after their home loss to the Spurs Friday and the Mavericks are 14-8 ATS this when off of a loss by a double digit margin. The Suns are off the huge win over the Thunder and Phoenix has gone 8-13 ATS (and 5-16 SU) this season when off of a game where they scored 115 points or more. I'll gladly fade them in this spot as the Mavericks are out for revenge. 10* DALLAS |
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04-09-17 | Reds v. Cardinals OVER 8 | Top | 8-0 | Push | 0 | 4 h 57 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in St Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds @ 2:15 ET - Temperatures will be very mild this afternoon in St Louis ans the wind is going to be blowing out to left at a strong clip. Look for plenty of offense as a result. Even though the Reds Scott Feldman only allowed 3 earned runs in his season-opening start he was very fortunate. His outing lasted less than 5 innings and he gave up 7 hits (and 2 homers) and this was against a Phillies team not exactly known for it's hitting prowess (yesterday's unusual Philadelphia results notwithstanding). The point is that Feldman is very likely to get rocked here and the Cardinals did get things rolling with a big 10-run performance yesterday. The over is 19-9 the past 2 seasons when Cincinnati is off of a game where they allowed 10 runs or more. Also, the over is 70-51 long-term in Reds games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. The Cardinals bullpen has struggled (7.43 ERA) so far this season and they may be called upon early in this one. The Cards Carlos Martinez is off of a strong season-opening start where he struck out 10 and St Louis may not allow him to go real long in this one if they get a big lead with some strong offensive production. Martinez did give up 12 baserunners in 6 innings when he most recently faced the Reds and he was fortunate the damage was minimized in that game. The Reds are 4th in the majors in slugging percentage so far this season and the Cardinals should crush Feldman and that should lead to an easy over in this one. 10* OVER the total in St Louis |
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04-08-17 | Predators v. Jets +102 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 102 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NHL Saturday 10* Top Play Winnipeg Jets Money Line (-) vs Nashville Predators @ 7:05 ET - Even though the Jets aren't going to the playoffs they've certainly been playing like a playoff team and I know they want to carry that momentum right into the off-season. That said, Winnipeg is very hungry for a win here in their final game of the season and, winners of 6 straight and 9 of their last 11, the Jets are unlikely to be denied here. The Predators are off of a big road win at Dallas but previously lost 4 of their last 5 and truly the Preds have already been looking ahead to the playoffs. Also, the home team has won all 3 meetings between these clubs this season. I look for more of the same on Saturday evening. The Predators had averaged just 1.8 goals per game in their last 5 road games before the explosion against the Stars. The Jets, incredibly, have scored 4 goals or more in 5 straight games and 12 of their last 19. The Predators have lost 18 of 27 this season when off of a divisional game. Also, the last 3 seasons combined, Nashville has lost 50 of 79 games when they are off of a game where they scored 4 goals or more. Winnipeg has won 18 of 28 divisional games this season and the Jets have won 4 of 5 home games with a posted total of 6 goals or more this season. This total is high for a reason. The Jets continue their red hot goal-scoring run. 10* WINNIPEG |
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04-08-17 | Bucks v. 76ers +6.5 | Top | 90-82 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
PA Insider - Rickenbach NBA Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76'ers (+) vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 7:05 ET - The Sixers were held to a ridiculous 36.3% from the field in Thursday's home game versus the Bulls and still only lost the game by 12 points. I expect Philly to bounce back and shoot much better here and that's bad news for a Bucks team that is simply playing pathetic and inexcusable basketball right now. Milwaukee hasn't even managed to punch their ticket to the playoffs just yet because they've lost 3 straight games. Overall it's an 0-4 ATS run for the Bucks and they've averaged just 84 points per game in their last two games and yet they've allowed 106.4 points per game in their last 7 games. It looks like Milwaukee is falling back into old habits and the Sixers are a dangerous home dog when they're motivated. That said, the Bucks have had the 76'ers number in recent meetings in Philly and the Sixers will be out for some payback here. This is especially true with Philadelphia coming off of back to back embarrassing performances at home. The 76'ers played awful defense in one game and had awful offense in the next. They still have covered 11 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning record and are 20-8 ATS this season when playing with home loss revenge. Also, the Sixers are 19-8 ATS when off of a loss by a double digit margin. The Bucks are an ugly 5-11 ATS against Atlantic Division foes this season. Also, Milwaukee is 16-27 ATS in their games against teams with a losing record this season. The Bucks underestimate the 76'ers here and I smell an upset but will certainly grab the generous points. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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04-07-17 | Royals v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Astros vs Kansas City Royals @ 8:10 ET - This total is offering great line value on the over as both starting pitchers are likely to struggle. Of course I am well aware of the fact that Kansas City is off to an 0-3 start to the season and hasn't impressed at the plate but Michael Fiers should bring out the best in them. The Astros right-hander is winless in 3 career starts against the Royals and his 6.46 ERA could easily be higher as he does have a 1.96 WHIP against KC. You give up 2 baserunners per inning and things can get ugly in a hurry and that is what I am expecting here as Fiers has a history of slow starts to seasons with some very ugly early season numbers, particularly in April, in recent seasons. He'll be opposed by Jason Vargas and the Royals southpaw is unlikely to enjoy success here. The Kansas City left-hander is winless in his 4 careers starts against Houston and he has compiled an 8.41 ERA against them. The lefty is still trying to battle back from Tommy John surgery and has not been on a major league mound much in recent seasons. He's facing an Astros lineup that has plenty of confidence thanks to a 3-1 start to the season. Houston hasn't been knocking the cover off of the ball early this season but this will be their 3rd game in 3 days against a left-handed starter and that certainly will help them as they look to get to Vargas early and often in this one. Off of their first loss of the season, Houston will be looking to get back on track here but the Astros bats are going to have to do the heavy lifting because I look for Fiers annual early season struggles to be an issue here. Look for the over to go to 3-1 in his career starts against the Royals and to go to 4-1 in Vargas' career starts against the Astros. 10* OVER the total in Houston |
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04-07-17 | Lightning +125 v. Canadiens | Top | 4-2 | Win | 125 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
NBC Sports Network Rout - Rickenbach NHL Friday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Lightning Money Line (+) @ Montreal Canadiens @ 7:35 ET - The Bolts kept their slim post-season hopes alive with a big win at Toronto last night and, until their eliminated, you can bet that the Lightning aren't going to stop going hard. Tampa Bay again is in a must-win situation here and they are likely visiting the right team at the right time to notch another crucial pair of points in the standings. The Bolts re in Montreal where the Canadiens are already crowned as the Atlantic Division champs and truly have nothing to play for here. Certainly the Habs are trying to say "playoff-ready" and play a better game than they did in the 2-1 loss at Buffalo Wednesday evening. But the fact is that it is virtually impossible for the Canadiens to match the intensity that a desperate Tampa Bay team will bring to the ice Friday night. Further hindering the Habs chances here is the fact that their defense is very banged up. That said, the only reason Montreal is favored here is because they are on home ice but the intensity and motivational edges clearly lie with the road dog in this one. The Lightning have won 6 of their last 7 road games and I look for another W tonight to keep the Bolts playoff hopes alive. 10* TAMPA BAY on the money line early Friday evening |
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04-07-17 | Hawks +12 v. Cavs | Top | 114-100 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
NBA TV Blowout ATS Rout - Rickenbach NBA Friday 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks (+) @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 7:35 ET - The very first number that came out on this game was a -9 for Cleveland and now the Cavaliers are all the way up to being a 12 point choice in this game. I'll gladly grab the value on the other side with the Hawks plus the big points. Atlanta is likely to be without Paul Millsap but, keep in mind, the Cavs are expected to be without Tristan Thompson and that hurts since they don't have Andrew Bogut whom they had high hopes for before he got hurt a month ago. The interior defense of the Cavaliers is going to be impacted here and I look for Dwight Howard and company to take advantage. This game has meaning for both teams so I expect plenty of intensity from both teams and a much closer game than many are expecting here. Keep in mind, the road team has won 4 straight meetings between these teams. Atlanta is seeking revenge for a hard-fought 5-point home loss to the Cavaliers in their most recent meeting. The Cavs are suddenly receiving a lot of love because they just trounced Boston but the Hawks are also coming off of a win over the Celtics. Also, let's not forget that Cleveland had lost 11 of their last 18 games before their recent 4-game winning streak. By the way the 4 victories have included wins over the Magic and 76'ers (2 very poor teams) as well as a 5-point win over Indiana. This is simply too many points in a game that means a lot to Atlanta. The Hawks have won 3 of 5 after a tough recent stretch and one of the two losses came by just a bucket. The point is they should hang tough in this one throughout. The Hawks are 16-10 ATS as an underdog this season and 11-4 ATS in divisional games. The Cavaliers are 7-12 ATS this season when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more. 10* ATLANTA |
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04-06-17 | Bulls -6 v. 76ers | Top | 102-90 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
PA Insider - Rickenbach NBA Thursday 10* Top Play Chicago Bulls (-) @ Philadelphia 76'ers @ 7:05 ET - The Sixers beat the Bulls in Chicago two weeks ago but much has changed since then. Philly is showing that they have officially thrown in the towel on the season. Yes, the lack of a shot at post-season has long been determined but at least Philadelphia was playing with some pride. However, they enter this game having lost 4 straight and the 76'ers have allowed a ridiculous shooting percentage of 56.5% from the field in their last 3 games. They now face a Bulls team seeking revenge and still alive in the playoff race. I highly doubt that Philadelphia is going to be able to match the intensity of Chicago in this one. The Bulls had won 4 straight before the loss to the Knicks and Chicago will bounce back here. They know they have 4 very winnable games to wrap up the regular season and they know it's basically a "win and your in" situation for them. The Bulls only shot 38% at New York Tuesday and they are 3-0 ATS the last 3 times they've been held under 41% from the field. Also, Philly is unlikely to shoot 55% like they did at Chicago two weeks ago. The 76'ers last 9 games featured the aberration that was the win at Chicago and, other than that, the 8 games saw the Sixers shoot a combined 42.7% from the field. Philadelphia is 8-15 ATS (and 3-20 SU) when they enter a game off of 3 more consecutive overs. The 76'ers also are now 1-15 SU in April games the past 3 seasons combined. The Bulls get the win here and I look for a big cover too as they improve upon a 31-20 ATS mark in their last 51 games against Atlantic Division opponents. Revenge time here. 10* CHICAGO early Thursday evening. |
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04-06-17 | Padres v. Dodgers OVER 8 | Top | 2-10 | Win | 100 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 8 runs in Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres @ 3:10 ET - The first game in this series was a day game and it easily flew over the total. The next two games were night games and they easily stayed under the total. Now we get a day game to wrap up the 4-game series and the ball just carries better in day games than in night games out west. Couple that with the fact that Jered Weaver's "heater" was only in the low 80s in spring training and you have the type of game that should see plenty of offense. While a tired-arm Weaver gets the start for the Padres, the Dodgers will have Brandon McCarthy on the mound in this one and he's missed a lot of time due to injuries. When healthy and on the mound, the results still haven't been good for McCarthy against San Diego. In his last 3 starts opposing the Padres, McCarthy has given up 13 earned runs in 15 innings. He's given up 6 San Diego homers in those three starts. The Dodgers should have no trouble with the offerings of Weaver either. The veteran righty gave up 10 hits (including 2 homers) in 7 innings in his most recent start at Dodger Stadium. The over is 23-13 the past 2 seasons in Padres games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. This will be their first of this season and the higher total on this game (first three games were all between 6.5 and 7.5) is absolutely justified. 10* OVER the total in Los Angeles Dodgers Thursday afternoon. |
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04-05-17 | Mariners v. Astros OVER 8 | Top | 3-5 | Push | 0 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners @ 8:10 ET - The Mariners opened up as the favorite here but the Astros are getting a lot of attention from the markets and are now favored. My take on this situation is that Seattle's James Paxton could struggle some here as he has allowed 11 earned runs in his last 17 innings against the Astros and those were all recent starts. However, the reason the odds makers had the Mariners favored here is because the Astros Charlie Morton could struggle in this spot. I am well aware of his long-term numbers and that he's a ground ball pitcher and put up solid numbers in spring training. However, this is first MLB regular season start in nearly a full year and the Mariners lineup is a potent one. They've been held in check in the first two games in this series but I sense a big breakout game for them today. Morton is being given way too much respect from the betting markets. That is also why we've seen a total that opened up at 9 move all the way down to an 8 with the over available without laying any juice. This is what you call value and I just don't see a 3rd straight pitchers duel in this match-up. Let's not forget, two of Paxton's last three starts against the Astros resulted in games that totaled double digits in runs. I expect that again on Wednesday evening. 10* OVER the total in Houston |
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04-05-17 | Rangers v. Capitals OVER 5.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
NBC Sports Network Rout - Rickenbach NHL Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 5.5 goals (+) in Washington Capitals vs New York Rangers @ 8:05 ET - Even though these two teams are divisional foes, they are both relatively locked into playoff position already. The Capitals are virtually assured of earning the Presidents Trophy for most points in the league and the Rangers are locked into the #7 seed and will face Montreal in the 1st round. Couple that with the fact that these teams could potentially meet in the post-season after the 1st round and you have the makings of a game tonight that is likely to feature very little defensive intensity. Couple that with the goal-scoring prowess each of these teams have and you have the makings of a solid over. I'll gladly invest, particularly with the over 5.5 being available at a plus money return. The Capitals have won 8 of their last 9 games and scored an average of 4 goals per game during this stretch. The Rangers are on a goal-scoring barrage that has seen them score 3 goals or more in 10 of their last 13 games. Look for more of the same tonight. Braden Holtby is expected to be between the pipes for the Capitals tonight and, prior to his most recent start against New York being a strong one, he had allowed at least 3 goals in 4 of his last 5 games against the Rangers. Henrik Lundqvist will get this start for the Rangers and he has been struggling since returning from a hip injury. Overall, he's allowed an average of 4 goals per game in his last 4 starts. The Rangers enter this game having gone over the total in 4 straight games and the Capitals under yesterday was just their 4th in their last 15 games! After playing 3 or more road games in a row, the over has gone 5-2 this season in Caps games. As for the Rangers, the over has gone 10-5 when playing with 2 days of rest plus they are 17-6 to the over in divisional games. In 33 games against teams with a winning record, NYR has stayed under the total just 8 times! 10* OVER the total in Washington Wednesday evening |
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04-03-17 | North Carolina -118 v. Gonzaga | Top | 71-65 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
CBS Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Monday 10* Top Play North Carolina Tar Heels Money Line (-) vs Gonzaga Bulldogs @ 9:20 ET - Most of the Tar Heels shot very poorly Saturday and yet North Carolina still beat a very solid Oregon team. That says a lot about just how strong UNC is and the fact that they could lead an entire second half but falter late on free throws and yet still win the game shows that, indeed, this just might be the Tar Heels year. North Carolina opened up as a 2 point choice here but the line has moved down so far now that a "near pick'em" price is available on the money line for UNC in this game. The Tar Heels have played quite well on the defensive end throughout the tourney but they don't get the hype that the Bulldogs do and, keep in mind, Gonzaga faced a much weaker schedule this season in comparison with North Carolina. Of course this total is set high which certainly is reflective of the fact that both these teams have tremendous firepower on offense. Interestingly, the Bulldogs have played 7 games with a posted total of 150 or more this season and they only covered 1 of the 7 games! Also, as great as their regular season ATS numbers were, Gonzaga has covered only 1 of its 5 NCAA Tourney games and, of course, the competition is even tougher now as they face a championship-caliber opponent. I respect the Bulldogs but still feel they are over-valued as they got lucky to catch South Carolina (instead of Duke) and Xavier was not as strong as prior Musketeers teams. Gonzaga really steps up in class now and I don't see them upsetting the Tar Heels. Odds are that UNC shoots MUCH better than they did Saturday and that should key a rather comfortable win here. 10* NORTH CAROLINA |
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04-03-17 | Blazers +2 v. Wolves | Top | 109-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Monday 10* Top Play Portland Trail Blazers (+) @ Minnesota Timberwolves @ 7 ET - The Trail Blazers opened up as the favorite here but are now a 2 point dog. Of course many are looking at the fact that Minnesota is seeking revenge and would love to play the role of spoiler here. However, the Timberwolves just don't play enough defense to get the stops necessary to stay in front of the Trailblazers. The Blazers have won 6 straight games and 14 of their last 17. The Wolves have lost 7 of their last 9 games. Minny has only won 1 game in it last 7 meetings with Portland and that victory came by a single point. In other words, give the Blazers +2 (the line on this game as of early gameday morning) and they would be on a 7-0 ATS run in games against the T-wolves. The other reason people are likely fading Portland has to do with Jusuf Nurkic being out but Noah Vonleh got extra minutes against Phoenix as a result of Nurkic's absence and he scored 14 points and had 13 rebounds. The Blazers still have enough firepower to get past a Wolves team that has allowed a ridiculous 54% from the field during their current 2-7 streak their last 9 games. Look for more of the same Monday. The Trailblazers are 9-3 SU (and 8-4 ATS) in divisional games this season and 4-0 SU and ATS the last 4 times they've been off of a game where they scored 130 points or more. The Timberwolves are 4-8 SU in divisional games this season and 4-10 ATS when off of a game where they scored 115 points or more. 10* PORTLAND |
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04-03-17 | Phillies v. Reds OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 38 m | Show |
Total Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 4:10 ET - No disrespect to these two starting pitchers as both are certainly "quality" starters but when you look at the list of opening day starters this is one match-up where you have to scratch your head a little bit. The Phillies Jeremy Hellickson has a 4.48 ERA over the last 4 seasons combined. The Reds Scott Feldman, other than his solid 2009 season, has gone 54-69 in his career. Opposing batters the past 3 seasons have hit .266, .275, and .282 against him with the average going up in each season. Simply put, neither one of these guys are dominant hurlers. That, of course, is why the odds makers opened up this line at 9o-20 but we've seen it move all the way down to as a low as a 8 in some spots but at the dominant number of 8.5 (and + money on the over) as of late morning Monday, this total is offering great line value for the over. Both teams have questionable bullpens. The Phillies hit better on the road than at home last season. The Reds play in a hitter friendly park and averaged 4.5 runs per game at home last season. In fact, Cincinnati is 44-23 to the over the past two seasons when they are at home and the posted total is 8 or 8.5 runs. Also, 8 of the past 12 meetings between the Reds and Phillies have gone over the total. Look for more of the same on Monday afternoon. 10* OVER the total in Cincinnati |
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04-02-17 | Flyers +135 v. Rangers | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
NHL TV Blowout Rout - Rickenbach NHL Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Flyers Money Line (+) @ New York Rangers @ 7:35 ET - Though their playoff chances are slim, the Flyers haven't stopped fighting. With their 3-0 shutout of New Jersey yesterday, Philly has won 4 straight games. They now visit New York where the Rangers have lost 8 straight games. Even though the Rangers are off of an OT loss to the Penguins they had to score 2 goals in the 3rd period Friday just to get to OT as they rallied from a 2-goal deficit. The fact is that the Rangers just aren't playing very well right now while Philly continues to push hard and has won their last 4 games by a combined scored of 18-7. With Flyers winning 4 straight overall and the Rangers losing 8 straight at home, we're testing a combined 12-0 run here. Also, Rangers have lost 16 of 26 when off of a divisional game this season and Flyers have won 16 of 25 when off of a divisional game. The Flyers will rally around the Neuvirth goalie situation and Mason could be back tonight but Stolarz was fantastic between the pipes yesterday. The road team has taken 6 of the last 7 meetings between these clubs and we are certainly getting extra line value here with the road dog. 10* PHILADELPHIA FLYERS money line Sunday |
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04-02-17 | Mavs +6 v. Bucks | Top | 109-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach Sunday NBA 10* Top Play Dallas Mavericks (+) @ Milwaukee Bucks @ 3:35 ET - This line looks "funny" to me and long-time followers know how I feel about "strange" lines. They are usually set that way for a reason. In this case, the line on this game opened up with the Bucks as "only" a 5.5 point favorite even though Milwaukee has won 14 of 17 games and are at home hosting a Mavericks team that has lost 4 straight games and 8 of its last 11. The line appears even more "questionable" when one considers that not only are the Bucks the much hotter team but Dallas has gone 9-26 in road games this season. That said, in typical contrarian fashion, I am on the Mavs here. Now, as always, there is support for the contrarian decision. Even though the Bucks are motivated to improve their position in the playoff standings, the Mavericks are even more motivated to make sure they stay alive in the race for a post-season spot. Certainly things are looking bleak for Dallas but I don't see them stopping the fight until the final bell on their season has been rung. The Mavericks have gone 10-6 ATS their last 16 games against teams with a winning record. Also, the Mavs are a phenomenal 9-0 ATS (and 8-1 SU) in Sunday games this season! Could an outright upset be in the offing here? The Bucks are just 2-5 SU (and an ugly 1-6 ATS) in Sunday games this season. Milwaukee also is only 16-25 ATS in their games against teams with a losing record this season. Additionally, the Bucks are 6-16 ATS in recent season (and 52-93 ATS long-term) when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more. Grab the points! 10* MILWAUKEE plus the points Sunday. |
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04-01-17 | Oregon v. North Carolina -4.5 | Top | 76-77 | Loss | -118 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Saturday 10* Top Play North Carolina Tar Heels (-) vs Oregon Ducks @ 8:35 ET - Off of a blowout win versus Kansas where everything seemed to fall into place for the Ducks, it is the perfect time to fade them. Lets not forget Oregon won their three prior games in the tourney as follows: Faced a weak MAAC team (Iona) in the opener, beat Rhode Island by only 3 as 4.5 point choice, and rallied late to beat Michigan by a single point. Give credit to the Ducks for their hard work and effort but they now face their first truly tough test of the tourney as they face a North Carolina team that has a ton of experience in situations like this. The Tar Heels have faced a tougher schedule than the Ducks this season and UNC just beat a very strong Kentucky team. I know I was in the minority on this but I had the Wildcats winning the whole thing this season. Would not have surprised me in the least. The key to the value here is the Tar Heels beat the Wildcats despite making only 3 of 20 three pointers and they also had some issues with turnovers. In Oregon's win over the Jayhawks the Ducks knocked down 11 threes while Kansas made only 5 of 25 from downtown. So Oregon outscored Kansas by 18 points from downtown while UNC got outscored by 12 points from three point land yet both are off of wins. By taking the 3's out of the equation the Tar Heels would have beat Kentucky by 14 while the Ducks would have lost to Kansas by 4. I don't expect UNC to again shoot so poorly from three point land and the Ducks hot shooting is unlikely to continue as the long layoff between games doesn't help. Also, prior to the Wildcats hitting 36.8% of their threes against UNC, the Tar Heels had held 6 of their last 10 opponents under 29.3% from three point land. The Heels are 5-2 ATS as a neutral court fave of 3.5 to 6 points. The Ducks are 2-10 ATS long-term in neutral court games with a posted total in the 150 to 154.5 range. 10* NORTH CAROLINA |
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04-01-17 | Hawks +4.5 v. Bulls | Top | 104-106 | Win | 100 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
NBA TV Blowout ATS Rout - Rickenbach NBA Saturday 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks (+) @ Chicago Bulls @ 5:05 ET - The Bulls are still fighting for a playoff spot but the Hawks haven't clinched theirs either. That said, I am backing an Atlanta team that is rejuvenated and got a little bit of their swagger back thanks to back to back wins. Yes, it is true that the wins came against bad teams (Suns and Sixers) but sometimes that's all it takes for a team to get back into rhythm. Keep in mind, the Bulls are off of back to back wins but, prior to that had been struggling just like the Hawks had. Also, Chicago's most recent win was a big one as they knocked off the defending champs (and division rival) Cavaliers. When off of an upset win as an underdog the Bulls have gone 7-12 SU this season and 16-28 ATS the L3 seasons combined. Even though Chicago is playing this game with home loss revenge the Bulls have gone 4-8 ATS (and 3-9 SU) this season when they are looking to avenge a home defeat. Against southeast division opponents the last 3 seasons Chicago is a combined 17-35 ATS. The Hawks are 10-4 ATS against central division opponents this season and, even though they come into this game with their offense still struggling a bit, Atlanta has been very impressive on the defensive end. The Hawks have held teams to a combined 41% from the field in their last 6 games! By comparison, the Bulls haven't held a team below 44% in any of their past 5 games. Don't be surprised if this is an upset win but certainly I am grabbing the generous points available in this one. 10* ATLANTA |
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04-01-17 | Wild v. Predators OVER 5.5 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NHL Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 5.5 goals (+) in Nashville Predators vs Minnesota Wild @ 2:05 ET - The Predators are likely to have Pekka Rinne between the pipes and only 3 of his 21 (14%!) divisional starts this season have resulted in an under! The Preds are off of back to back disappointing results as, after winning 4 straight games and 7 of their last 8, they've lost 2 in a row and only scored 1 goal in each of the 2 defeats. This season, when off of a game where they've scored 1 goal or less, Nashville has gone 9-4 (69%) to the over! The Predators home games with a posted total of 5.5 goals have gone 12-7 to the over this season. Minnesota is likely to have Devan Dubnyk back between the pipes Saturday and he's been struggling. He has an unsightly .864 save percentage in his last 4 starts. The Wild have scored 9 goals in their last two games and they are off of a 5-1 win versus Ottawa Thursday. This season, when off of a game where they scored 4 goals or more, Minnesota has gone 17-7 to the over. 3 of the 4 meetings between these clubs this season have totaled 6 goals or more and there is no reason to expect anything different on Saturday. That said, grab the favorable plus money odds here with this total. 10* Top Play OVER 5.5 goals (+) in Nashville Saturday |
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03-31-17 | St. Peter's v. Texas A&M Corpus Christi +4.5 | Top | 62-61 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Friday 10* Top Play Texas A & M Corpus Christi Islanders (+) vs Saint Peter's Peacocks @ 9 ET - As I wrote in my selection involving the Islanders Wednesday over Maryland - Baltimore County and the "funny line", the reality is that TXAMCC is the better team. I respect UMBC especially their star guard but the Islanders have a little better inside-out game going with their two top scorers and I look for that to be a difference maker here. Also, the Isles have held 5 of their last 6 opponents under 42.5% from the field. This is in stark contrast to a UMBC team that has allowed 13 of their last 17 opponents to hit over 45% from the field. Defense and, in my opinion, a little better balanced offense, will prove to be the difference makers in this one. Now, St Peter's certainly has better numbers on defense in comparison with UMBC. However, prior to an ugly 49-44 win over Texas State where the Peacocks made just 31.8% of their shots from the field, their defense in their two previous games away from home saw them allow over 45.6% from the field in each game. Overall, in 3 of their last 4 games, St Peter's has allowed over 34.7% from three point land. Texas A & M Corpus Christi is 16-1 at home this season and 41-6 at home the last 3 seasons combined. Those are SU records and I love the fact that his line opened up at St Peter's -1.5 but the Peacocks already are up to a 4.5 point choice in this game as of early gameday morning. Even though St Peter's just throttled Furman Wednesday, the Paladins were without their head coach as he abruptly took another job over the weekend and that threw the team into disarray. Give the Peacocks credit for taking advantage of Furman's bad situation but St Peter's now face an Islanders team that seems to be a team of destiny in this tournament. The Isles have won their last 4 games by an average margin of 15 points per game even though they were a dog in 3 of those games and only a 2 point fave in the other. Their peeking at the right time and have the right mix of guys (and leadership) to take home the prize tonight. That said, I'll gladly grab the line value with the points being offered here. The Peacocks have gone 22-27 on the road the L3 seasons combined. Look for the Islanders to finish the season 17-1 at home but grab the available points. The Isles only have one loss by more than 3 points in the last 2 months! 10* TEXAS A & M CORPUS CHRISTI |
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03-31-17 | Pistons +10 v. Bucks | Top | 105-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
Rickenbach Friday NBA 10* Top Play Detroit Pistons (+) @ Milwaukee Bucks @ 8:05 ET - The Pistons, though their playoff hopes are slim, certainly aren't going to quit on the season as long as they still have a mathematical shot at the post-season. That said, last night's win (albeit a non-cover) was a big one for Detroit and they aren't going to slow down tonight. Couple that with the fact that this line has been consistently moving up since it first came out (we're now getting double digits with the Pistons) and you have a great value spot for a big dog play. Detroit has lost their last two games against the Bucks by a combined 38 points so revenge is on order here. Even though this is a 4th game in 5 nights situation for the Pistons they can worry about rest later. They have 4 days off coming up after tonight's game and they know this game is basically their season when it comes to playoff chances. That said, this can't be looked at as a "normal" 4 games in 5 nights situation. When teams playoff hopes are on the line this isn't treated in the same way as a "4th in 5" situation played in December or January, as an example. Also, as hot as the Bucks have been they've not made a good home favorite when in this price range. In fact, Milwaukee is 1-8 ATS their last 9 home games where they are favored by more than 4 points. Look for the Bucks to drop to 5-12 ATS in Friday games this season as the division rival Pistons come into this game with their season on line and knowing they don't play again until Wednesday. It's now or never for the hungry road dog in this one. 10* DETROIT |