Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-25-24 | Botosani v. Steaua Bucharesti OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
Rotation #206861: Romania Liga 1 Sunday OVER 2.5 in FCSB vs Botosani @ 1 ET - This is a match-up of the top club with the bottom club in the table. However, don't look for a snooze-fest here because of that. FSCB has some injury issues which has impacted their depth defensively. Botosani will take advantage as, despite their poor season record, their current level of play has exceeded that by a solid margin. They are scoring goals well but still have trouble preventing goals on the counterattack. That means this should be a back and forth shootout, truly. Botosani has scored 2 goals in each of last 3 matches! However, Botosani has also conceded 7 goals in last 4 matches. FCSB will take advantage and is at home and looking to bounce back after scoring just 2 goals total in last 3 matches after they had enjoyed a red hot scoring run. Facing a Botosani club on a run of 3 straight overs increases the odds of FSCB returning to their high-scoring ways. OVER 2.5 in FCSB |
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02-25-24 | Maryland +2.5 v. Rutgers | Top | 63-46 | Win | 100 | 5 h 34 m | Show |
Rotation#815: CBB Sunday Maryland Terrapins (+) @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ Noon ET - This line opened up around a pick'em but is now up to as high as a 2.5 as of 4 and 1/2 hours before tipoff. Of course the markets are all over Rutgers here at home at the low number but why do you think this line was set near a pick'em? Were the odds makers unaware that the Scarlet Knights were at home for this game where they have been strong this season? Of course not! The point is that the odds makers look at this one the same way I do. Maryland is the better team even though they are behind them in the Big Ten standings. This is a revenge game and the Terps get payback for a horrific shooting effort from beyond the arc in the first meeting. Yes Rutgers has a solid defense but so do the Terrapins! Payback game in a chance to move up the Big Ten standings and leapfrog the Scarlet Knights. 10* MARYLAND (+) |
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02-25-24 | Liverpool v. Chelsea OVER 3 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
Rotation #200601: EFL Cup | Final: Sunday OVER 3 in Chelsea vs Liverpool @ Wembley Stadium in London @ 10 AM ET - This is a huge match as it is a chance to win some hardware. This is helping keeping this total low as, of course, a match like this would not be expected to be as free-flowing as a regular season match. We take advantage of this over 3 available at even money. The fact is the Chelsea backline has looked great recently but is still missing some players and Liverpool has the firepower to take advantage. This is particularly true with a few players likely back for this match as well after being rested in mid-week action. The problem for the Reds is not the scoring aspect however, it is a very leaky backline as they continue to concede goals consistently in each match. 6 straight Liverpool matches - across all competitions - have totaled at least 4 goals! Chelsea has allowed 11 goals last 5 matches. They also have scored 10 goals during this 5-match stretch. This included a 4-1 loss to Liverpool. Look for another high-scoring but more evenly played match this time around and a 2-2 draw decided on penalty kicks would not surprise me in the least. Either way, look for the over run of 6-0 in Liverpool matches to make it 7 STRAIGHT overs with another wild one here. OVER 3 in Chelsea |
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02-25-24 | Sheffield United v. Wolverhampton Wanderers OVER 3 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 49 m | Show |
Rotation #200037: English Premier League Sunday OVER 2.5 or OVER 3 in Wolverhampton vs Sheffield United @ 8:30 AM ET - The over is a PERFECT 7-0 this YEAR, in 2024, in Sheffield United matches as all 7 - across all competitions - have totaled at least 4 goals! Yes, Sheffield has been known for a long time for allowing goals at an alarming rate but the most impressive aspect of this high-scoring match streak from the perspective of Sheffield, is they have actually averaged 3 goals scored per match in the 3 matches away from home in 2024. That said, the goals should fly here as the Wolves are at home and are dangerous on the attack. They suffered a rare shutout in most recent home match but this followed a stretch of scoring at least 1 goal in 14 straight home matches and they averaged scoring 2 goals per match during this streak. Couple that with facing the weak defense of Sheffield and you have the perfect setup for a goal-fest here. OVER 2.5 or 3 in Wolverhampton |
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02-24-24 | Villanova +12 v. Connecticut | Top | 54-78 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
Rotation #769: College Basketball Saturday Villanova Wildcats (+) @ Connecticut Huskies @ 8 ET - As I mentioned in prior write-ups on the Wildcats, they have truly bought into improved defensive play and are doing key aspects of the game well like rebounding well and hustling and forcing turnovers. That, of course, does not mean they beat the #1 team in the nation and defending champion Huskies at Connecticut. But it does mean they hang around in this game and we get key line value here because this line is up near a DOZEN points but when these teams met at Villanova - a 1 point win for Huskies - UConn was a very small favorite. Now they are a little inflated here in my opinion because of coming off the loss. Keep in mind, the Huskies are off a loss which will have many thinking bounce back here but sometimes a team that is so use to winning does not respond as aggressively off a rare loss. After their other two losses this season the Huskies did win their next game each time but by an average of just 7.5 points as a victory margin. The Wildcats have allowed just 55 ppg in their last 5 games! That is not an accident folks, they really have emphasized defense and that won't stop here. Now, of course, the Huskies are a great team but they are over-valued here in a game that will be tight because the Wildcats will continue their tenacious D and they have older players that know how to rise to the occasion in a big game like this. They will not be intimidated. VILLANOVA (+) |
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02-24-24 | Maple Leafs v. Avalanche OVER 6.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 9 m | Show |
NHL Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 6.5 -140 in Colorado Avalanche vs Toronto Maple Leafs @ 7 ET - The Leafs have won 7 of 8 games and these have totaled at least 7 goals in all but 2 of them plus the 8 games have averaged 8 goals apiece! Toronto is scoring an average of 5 goals per game during this red-hot 8 game stretch of high-scoring games. The Avalanche certainly know a thing or two about barn-burners as well! Colorado is off a rare low-scoring loss but had scored an average of 4 goals per game in their 4 games prior to that. Also, the Avalanche are a different team on home ice! They have won 12 of last 13 as a host! In those 13 matches, the Avs have scored an average of 5 goals in those 13 games! Remember we talked about the Leafs and their current 5-goal scoring average last 8 games too. This one has all the makings of a back and forth thriller and 5-4 would not be a shock at all and certainly each team more than capable of getting 3 goals apiece to force a 4-3 final here. OVER 6.5 -140 in Colorado |
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02-24-24 | Virginia Tech v. Pittsburgh -2.5 | Top | 64-79 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
Rotation #718: College Basketball: Saturday Pittsburgh Panthers (-) vs Virginia Tech Hokies @ 5:30 ET - The Panthers are in a great spot here. Not only are they off that ugly loss at Wake Forest after winning 5 straight games and 7 of last 8, Pittsburgh also has revenge on their minds here for added motivation. While it may seem like a meaningless game from year ago it is not forgotten. The Panthers were 12-3 and in first place in the ACC at the time and Virginia Tech was just 5-10 but the Hokies got the victory that day. Now Pittsburgh can bounce back at home off the ugly loss plus get revenge for that defeat last year in Blacksburg. Virginia Tech is just 1-7 on the road this season. We get line value here with the Panthers because Wake Forest was on fire with their shooting when they blasted Pitt earlier this week. Take advantage of the value here. PITTSBURGH (-) |
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02-24-24 | Rangers v. Flyers +120 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 20 m | Show |
NHL Saturday Philadelphia Flyers Money Line +120 vs New York Rangers @ 3 ET - Looks too easy, right? The Rangers have won 9 straight games but are laying a very short price on the road here. Don't be fooled in this one. Note that the Central Division leading Stars have lost 4 straight and the Pacific Division leading Canucks have lost 4 straight. The point is that even the top teams hit some speed bumps. Now certainly the Rangers have been red hot but there is a reason this game is priced this way. The Flyers have been playing very solid hockey and have won 5 of 7 games and that included wins over the Jets and Panthers. Philly has won 3 straight on home ice and this is their first game on home ice in nearly two weeks. They will make the most of it. The Rangers are off a win at New Jersey but, prior to this, the only other road wins in their streak were against bad teams that are at the bottom of their divisions - Ottawa and Chicago. Prior to this, since the calendar hit 2024, the Rangers were 1-6 in road games this year. Grab the home dog value here. PHILADELPHIA +120 |
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02-24-24 | Newcastle United v. Arsenal OVER 3 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
Rotation #200033: English Premier League: Saturday OVER 3 -135 in Arsenal vs Newcastle United @ 3 ET - Newcastle is getting healthier and should have both Isak and Willock back for this one. Also, Arsenal will not be in a good mood after losing 1-0 at FC Porto in Champions League action. As a result, they will be aggressive on the attack on their home pitch here but a Newcastle side rejuvenated by returning players, including their leading scorer, is also going to be ready to attack as well. This one sets up perfectly to be an entertaining affair with solid scoring from each club. Note that Arsenal has gone 6-0 to the over in their last 6 Premier League matches and they have scored 4.2 goals per match in their last 5 in EPL action! Also, Newcastle has seen 7 straight Premier League matches go over the total and these have averaged 5 goals apiece! We should see plenty of goals here but I will grab the over 3 just to be safe but certainly expecting 4 or more. Given the situation and all of the above, plenty of scoring likely in this one. OVER 3 -135 in Arsenal |
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02-24-24 | Atlanta United v. Columbus OVER 3 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -116 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
Rotation #209805: Major League Soccer: Saturday OVER 3 in Columbus vs Atlanta United @ 2 ET - These were the two highest scoring clubs in the league last season. Atlanta United has revenge here from losing to Columbus in the post-season last year on the way to the latter eventually winning their 3rd MLS Cup. The average score of Columbus home matches last season was 3-1 and certainly there is nothing average about that! Both of these clubs like to attack but it also leaves them open to getting burned on the counterattack. Atlanta United scored an average of 2 goals per match last season but also allowed an average of 2 goals per match when on the road. Columbus also allowed an average of 2 goals per match when on the road. Again, Columbus is at home for this one but it just goes to show you how frequently both these clubs get burned for goals even though they themselves also score goals aplenty. Per all of the above I am expecting a 3-2 type final here and we only need 4 to be a winner in this one. OVER 3 in Columbus |
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02-24-24 | BYU -115 v. Kansas State | Top | 74-84 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 46 m | Show |
Rotation #639: College Basketball Saturday BYU Cougars (-) @ Kansas State Wildcats @ 2 ET - This line is all the way down to -1 as of about 5 hours before tipoff and this has opened up great line value on the Cougars. BYU is even available as low as -115 on the money line which is the way to play this one as we don't need to worry about covering a spread. The fact is BYU is off a win and they have not had a single standalone win this season. They have won 5 of last 7 games and the Cougars will take advantage of facing a Kansas State team that has lost 7 of 8 games. Yes the Wildcats have the home court edge here but the Cougars are the stronger team and dominated the prior meeting at BYU more than the final margin even indicated. The Cougars are the better shooting team, better rebounding team and also average 5 more assists per game than the Wildcats. The Cougars are the stronger more well-rounded team and we get line value because this game is at Kansas State. We will not hesitate to take advantage. BYU (-) |
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02-24-24 | Manchester City v. AFC Bournemouth OVER 3 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -130 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
Rotation #200029: English Premier League: Saturday OVER 3 -130 in Bournemouth vs Manchester City @ 12:30 ET - City had been scoring like crazy, as per usual, but then scored only 1 goal in their 1-nil victory over Brentford. I believe they coasted there at home and also there were certainly missed scoring opportunities in that match. Going on the road, in my opinion, is going to force City to get back into that attacking mindset. Keep in mind, even on the road they average 2.3. goals scored per game. However, away from home City is also conceding 1.3 goals per game. City has now scored 1 goal in B2B matches as they had the tough 1-1 draw with Chelsea prior to the win over the Bees. They need to, and will, wake up here and they will score like crazy against this Bournemouth club. The hosts have allowed an average of 2 goals per match this season. Also, each of the last 5 meetings have totaled at least 3 goals and City has actually scored at least 4 goals in each of the last 3 meetings! Bournemouth has scored at least 1 goal in 17 of last 18 matches across all competitions and actually averaged 2 goals scored per match during this stretch. That is why I fully expect 4 or more goals here and certainly we have extra value with this total available at 3 goals. OVER 3 -130 in Bournemouth |
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02-24-24 | Fulham v. Manchester United OVER 3 | Top | 2-1 | Push | 0 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
Rotation #200017: English Premier League Saturday OVER 3 in Manchester United vs Fulham @ 10 AM ET - I was involved with the Manchester United match over 3 last week and would you believe it was Man U up 2-1 after just 14 minutes and YET no one scored the rest of the way? Brutal push to say the least but I expect to get the win this week that we so much deserved last week. The fact is Man U has had their scoring boots on again and they continue to pile up goals but they also have some concerns defensively in terms of absentees for this one. Fulham will take advantage of that and should score at least once. Fulham is scoring 1.4 goals per match this season but also allowing 2.2 goals per match away from home. Man U has only 2 draws this season so the odds of a draw are just 8% the way their matches have played out this season. In other words, strong odds this one gets to at least 2-1 though I am certainly expecting much more. Since Christmas, Man U has flipped a switch and they have scored an average of 2.6 goals per match since then. More of the same here. Also, all 7 of their Premier League matches since Christmas have totaled at least 3 goals and those averaged 4 goals apiece! At over 3 goals here, we are testing a 7-0 unbeaten run. No hesitation in doing just that! OVER 3 in Manchester United |
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02-24-24 | Petrolul 52 v. UTA Arad OVER 2 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -129 | 4 h 44 m | Show |
Rotation #206877: Romania Liga 1: Saturday OVER 2 -125 in UTA vs Petrolul Ploiesti @ 7 AM ET - UTA is off a 1-0 win. That was a rare low-scoring match for them. The 5 most recent matches for UTA prior to that had all totaled at least 3 goals and averaged 3.6 goals apiece. Petrolul Ploiesti finally got back into the win column with a 2-1 win over Poli Iasi in most recent match. Look for them to use that as a springboard here as, with the Hermannstadt win yesterday, Petrolul Ploiesti needs a win here to get back in front of them for the #6 spot in the table! Being top 6 is a key in this league. UTA is not far behind either so, what you will see here is two clubs pushing hard for the full 3 points in the table and I see this one getting to at least 2-1 as a result. We have the added insurance of the over at 2 goals which makes a 1-1 final a push here though I am certainly getting involved here with the expectation of 3 or more goals. The fact each club is buoyed with confidence off a win last week will also result in an attacking mindset here as well. OVER 2 -125 in UTA |
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02-23-24 | Hornets v. Warriors OVER 229.5 | Top | 84-97 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 49 m | Show |
NBA Friday OVER the total in Golden State Warriors vs Charlotte Hornets @ 10:10 ET - This total is in the 229.5 range as of very early game day morning. We get some value because of the Hornets low-scoring ways long-term. This Charlotte team is playing much better of late and is off a road win at Utah to jump start their 2nd half of the season. The Warriors also off a big win versus the Lakers last night. What I like about the line value with this total here is that both teams scored big last night yet each game stayed under the total. Now they are matched up, loaded with confidence, and it is a non-conference match-up in the 2nd day of a B2B where defensive intensity will not be at its greatest! Note that the Hornets have now won 4 straight games and averaged 116 ppg in this 4-game stretch. Charlotte is about a 14 point dog here so that would put this game at 130-116 if they hit their recent scoring average. But can Warriors really get to 130 here? Yes, it is is not beyond the realm of reality for sure! Golden State is averaging 124 ppg L7 home games - not including OT points of course - and now they face one of the overall weaker teams in the league. Overall, GS is averaging 128 points scored per game last 7 games - home or away. Given all of these numbers you can see why I am expecting 240s here and certainly we should see at least 230s. The Hornets will not want to play fast necessarily but the Warriors, on their home floor, will absolutely force them too. But with Hornets playing with more confidence than usual on the offensive end, they will surprise with scoring well here. OVER the total in Golden State |
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02-23-24 | Wild v. Oilers OVER 6.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -125 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
NHL Friday 10* Top Play OVER 6.5 -125 in Edmonton Oilers vs Minnesota Wild @ 9 ET - The goals should fly in this one. The first two meetings averaged 9 goals apiece. Also, Minnesota enters this one off a 6-3 loss preceded by a 10-7 win. 7 of last 9 Minnesota road games have totaled at least 7 goals! Those 9 games have averaged 8 goals apiece! More of the same on tap here as Edmonton has seen each of last 5 games total at least 7 goals and these have averaged 9.6 goals apiece! The Oilers had that amazing winning streak because of solid goaltending. But, since their long winning streak, Edmonton is just 4-4 and has allowed 8 goals per game. The Oilers still have that amazing offensive production but the defense and goalie work has lapsed again. More of the same here and this one gets to 7 or more goals as each team highly likely to get to at least 3 goals! 10* OVER 6.5 -125 in Edmonton |
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02-23-24 | Kent State v. Akron -7 | Top | 70-83 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
CBB Friday 10* Top Play Akron Zips (-) vs Kent State Golden Flashes @ 6 ET - These are nearby rivals and this is always a big game as a result. That said, you might think Kent State is the revenge play here because they lost the most recent meeting at home this season. However, last season Akron had lost its final regular season game (in OT) at Kent State and then also had their season end just a week later when the Golden Flashes knocked the Zips out of the conference tourney! In other words, Akron still views this match-up as including some unfinished business. Also, the Zips are coming off a loss at Toledo which makes this home game extra important in the battle that Akron is in with the Rockets - also playing tonight - for the top spot in the MAC! Kent State is only a .500 team this season and they are a game under .500 in the MAC. Akron is definitely the stronger team and the much better defense and they improve on their 11-2 MAC season record. The Zips have gone a PERFECT 4-0 off a loss ever since that early season 3-game losing streak. Not only that, Akron won all 4 of those games by double digits. Look for the Zips to take that run to 5-0 here with another double digit victory. This line, as of 8 hours before tipoff, is in the 7.5 range and is a strong value here. 10* AKRON (-) |
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02-23-24 | Mainz v. Bayer Leverkusen OVER 3 | Top | 1-2 | Push | 0 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
Rotation #202469: German Bundesliga Friday 10* Top Play OVER 3 +105 in Bayer Leverkusen vs Mainz @ 2:30 ET - Bayer Leverkusen is trying to work on winning the Bundesliga this season and they are currently at the top of the table and scoring an average of 3 goals per match as a host in league action! Mainz is really struggling but they are battling in the relegation zone so they will go all out here. They should get at least a goal - as they are averaging that in road matches this season - and must be aggressive here. However, they are allowing 2 goals per match this season when away from home and should give up 3 or more as they face the best team in Germany! Incredible undefeated run is intact for Bayer Leverkusen and this one looks like a 3-1 final! Either way we see 4 or more goals here the way I see this one playing out. 10* OVER 3 +105 in Bayer Leverkusen |
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02-23-24 | Dinamo Bucuresti v. CFR Cluj OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
Rotation #206881: Romania Liga 1: Friday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 +100 in CFR Cluj vs Dinamo Bucuresti @ 1 ET - Dinamo is playing much better but, of course, is not a mistake that CFR Cluj is favored by 1 goal on the goal line. That said, we have excellent line value here given the way both of these clubs have been trending. Dinamo has scored 7 goals in its last 4 matches. 3 of the 4 totaled at least 3 goals. CFR Cluj has scored 9 goals in its last 4 matches. 3 of the 4 matches totaled at least 3 goals! CFR Cluj was shutout in most recent match at home but they faced a tough Rapid Bucuresti club. Now they face another Bucuresti club but this time it is a Dinamo club that has more defensive liability. CFR Cluj had scored 2 goals per match so far in home matches this season prior to that home shutout loss to Rapid. In other words, this match has 2-1 written all over it as Dinamo is improving but they won't be able to stop a determined host here either! 10* OVER 2.5 +100 in CFR Cluj |
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02-23-24 | Caykur Rizespor v. Samsunspor OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 31 m | Show |
Rotation #207897: Turkish Super Lig: Friday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 -110 in Samsunspor vs Caykur Rizespor @ Noon ET - Caykur Rizespor is allowing 2 goals per match in road games this season. Samsunspor should get their two goals here but also note that the hosts are allowing 1.4 goals per match this season. This one shapes up to be a 2-1 battle as Samsunspor is unbeaten in 6 of last 7 matches with the only loss to league-leader Galatasaray. In the other 6 matches, Samsunspor did average 1.5 goals scored per match. Also, though they have been tough at home this season, I can not forecast a shutout here against a Caykur Rizespor club that is much higher in the table with good reason. Off a 3-1 loss to 2nd place Fenerbahce, Caykur Rizespor will take advantage here of facing a club in the lower half of the table. The result is an entertaining battle with scoring from both clubs. So what about the odds of a 1-1 draw here? Well, Caykur Rizespor has only a 23% draw rate this season and Samsunspor has only a 15% draw rate at home this season. In other words, strong odds on at least a 2-1 battle here. 10* OVER 2.5 -110 in Samsunspor |
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02-23-24 | U Craiova 1948 v. Hermannstadt OVER 2 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -126 | 5 h 53 m | Show |
Rotation #206885: Romania Liga 1: Friday 10* Top Play OVER 2 -120 in Hermannstadt vs FCU 1948 Craiova @ 10 AM ET - The value of a 2 is big here. 8 of last 9 Hermannstadt matches have totaled at least 2 goals. Those matches averaged 2.4 goals apiece and with Hermannstadt off a rare scoreless draw in their most recent home match I know they should bring an aggressive effort to the pitch on Friday. As for FCU 1948 Craiova, 20 of their 26 matches this season have totaled at least 2 goals. They are off a 3-1 loss at home and also off a 1-0 loss in their most recent road match. So, like Hermannstadt, FCU 1948 Craiova will put an emphasis on the attacking side of things after being shutout on their most recent travels. Their last 10 matches that have totaled at least 2 goals did average 3.4 goals apiece so expecting 3 or more here is well within reason and we'll take advantage of the low total here. 10* OVER 2 -120 in Hermannstadt |
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02-22-24 | Canucks -120 v. Seattle Kraken | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
NHL Thursday Vancouver Canucks -120 @ Seattle Kraken @ 10:05 ET - Road team has won both meetings between these nearby rivals this season. The Canucks have lost 3 straight games for the first time this season but have faced some tough games. Prior to this, Vancouver had won 13 of 17 games and now face a Seattle team that is not so tough! The Kraken have lost 9 of 13 games and the Canucks come into this one angry. Look for Vancouver to be the more aggressive team from the get-go and they average a goal more per game than Seattle on the season. Their production leads the way to a road win here. VANCOUVER -120 |
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02-22-24 | Maple Leafs v. Golden Knights OVER 6 | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
NHL Thursday OVER 6 in Vegas Golden Knights vs Toronto Maple Leafs @ 10:05 ET - The Maple Leafs off yet another high-scoring win and tonight Vegas is expected to start Hill in goal. He actually has allowed at least 3 goals in 4 straight games! The Leafs are red hot and off a 6-3 win at Arizona last night. Toronto now has scored an average of 5 goals per game in their last 7 games and won 6 of those games. Vegas is tough at home however and that is why the play here is the over. The Golden Knights will put up a fight here but they have to fight fire with fire. In other words, look for plenty of offense here. The Leafs have allowed 3 goals per game their last 7 games. With Hill also allowing at least 3 per game of late, I do expect each team to get to 3 here and that would mean this one can not end with less than 7 goals. Vegas has allowed 4.3 goals per game last 3 home games. However, the Golden Knights also have averaged scoring 3 goals per game last 10 home games. This one gets to 7 or more. OVER 6 in Vegas |
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02-22-24 | Ohio State +3.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 79-88 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
Rotation #769: CBB Thursday Ohio State Buckeyes (+) @ Minnesota Golden Gophers @ 8 ET - Off the upset of the Boilermakers, under normal circumstances, Ohio State should be faded here. However, this is anything but normal circumstances! The Buckeyes have had a down season and so they made a rare late-season coaching change. The assistant that took over here had already been at OSU for a few years plus is a long-time guy in terms of Ohio roots both for him and his entire family. The Buckeyes are showing they want to rally around this and are playing hard. There is a reason this line opened up low and then shot up to 4 but is already back to a 3.5 as of about 9 hours before tipoff. The sharps see the same thing I am seeing here too. The fact is the Golden Gophers had lost 6 of 9 before their win by double digits over Rutgers and now lets take a look at that victory. The Scarlet Knights actually had 13 more field goal attempts than Minny but they were done in by poor shooting that night while the Gophers were on fire both inside and outside the arc. Rutgers had more points in the paint plus the Golden Gophers had nearly twice as many turnovers. The point is that the box score proves it was a phony final. It is helping to give us some market value here as there was nothing phony about the Buckeyes win over Purdue! Love the fact that OSU had just 6 turnovers in that game too while the Boilermakers had 14. We get solid line value here as many will be playing Minny and the revenge angle here but this Buckeyes team is rejuvenated. OHIO STATE (+) |
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02-22-24 | Knicks v. 76ers -115 | Top | 110-96 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 43 m | Show |
NBA Thursday Philadelphia 76ers -115 vs New York Knicks @ 7 ET - The Knicks are still without Anunoby and Randle. The Sixers are without Embiid of course but New York down two key players. Unsurprisingly, New York is starting to struggle not having these two guys. The Knicks lost 4 straight before the All-Star break. The Sixers lost at home to Miami before the break but had won 2 straight games - both on the road - prior to that. Now veteran Lowry expected to make his debut in hometown Philly for the 76ers and don't be surprised if the veteran outperforms expectations as he is rejuvenated by being back home and now playing for the Sixers. This is a bargain price on the Sixers as, until the Knicks get healthy again, they are just not the same team that had been streaking red hot. Philly takes advantage of catching rival NY at the right time in the right place! PHILADELPHIA -115 |
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02-22-24 | Rutgers v. Purdue OVER 138.5 | Top | 68-96 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
Rotation #747 CBB Thursday OVER the total in Purdue Boilermakers vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ 7 ET - This total is in the 138.5 range as of about 8 hours before tipoff. Note that this total is kept lower because of Rutgers being a strong defensive team. However, the game at Rutgers still totaled 128 when these teams met even though combined for just 9 of 35 from 3-point land. Now, at Purdue and with the Boilermakers angry off a loss, guess who controls the tempo in this one? Exactly! The home team is going to push hard here after the loss at Ohio State. Note that Purdue has scored an average of 91 points this season when off a loss. Those two games were big wins and, overall, the Boilermakers have been scoring big at home all season long. Purdue is averaging 89 ppg (not including OT of course) in their 13 home games this season. Also, Rutgers is expected to lose SU here of course and even though they are strong defensively, look at the numbers they have allowed in losses this season. They have allowed 77 ppg in losses away from home this season. Now they are going to lose away from home to the best team in the country! Of course the Boilers, given all of the above, should get into the 80s here and this line is around 15. Even if it is only an 80-65 type game that puts this in the mid-140s but truly I expect much more given all of the above and this one should blow away the total as the Boilers respond at home! OVER the total in Purdue |
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02-22-24 | Galatasaray v. AC Sparta Prague OVER 3 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 115 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
Rotation #224449: Europa League | Knockout Round Playoffs | 2nd Leg: Thursday OVER 3 +115 in AC Sparta Prague vs Galatasaray @ 3 ET - Down 3-2 based on the 1st Leg result, Sparta Prague must be aggressive from the onset here. While I am expect that to result in some scoring from the home side here, it also opens things up for the red hot attacking side of Galatasaray on the counter. Note that Galatasary enters this one having scored an average of 3 goals per match in their last 8 matches across all competitions. 8 straight Galatasaray matches have seen them score at least 2 goals. 4 straight Sparta Prague matches have totaled at least 3 goals! Also, they have scored at least 2 goals in 11 straight matches! So you have two red hot attacks matched up here and I see at least a 2-1 final here as the hosts battle hard, and must be aggressive, to try and stave off elimination. Look for another 3-2 final or perhaps 2-2 draw here. OVER 3 +115 in AC Sparta Prague |
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02-22-24 | Molde v. Legia Warsaw OVER 2.5 | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 6 h 38 m | Show |
Rotation #236061: Europa Conference League | Knockout Round Playoffs | 2nd Leg: Thursday OVER 2.5 -120 in Legia Warsaw vs Molde @ 3 ET - In the first leg Legia was down 3-0 and it looked like all hope was lost. However, they rallied for 2 goals which sets this one up perfectly. Yes, Legia is still down 3-2 but at least they have hope now and truly they have much more than just hope. That's because this club has been great on their home pitch! As a result, the goals should fly in this one. Down a goal on the aggregate, Legia must be aggressive here but the club from Norway (Molde) already showed what their attacking style is capable of in jumping out to that 3-0 lead in the first meeting. That said, goals will be the story in this one. Molde has both scored and conceded in 5 straight matches. Those matches averaged 4 goals apiece and 4 of the 5 did total at least 4 goals and we only need 3 to be a winner here. Legia has scored 19 goals in last 11 matches as a host and they'll need at least 2 here to stay alive in this one because Molde will continue scoring well also. That sets this up in good shape for at least a 2-1 final here. OVER 2.5 -120 in Legia Warsaw |
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02-22-24 | Benfica v. Toulouse OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -130 | 5 h 38 m | Show |
Rotation #224433: Europa League | Knockout Round Playoffs | 2nd Leg: Thursday OVER 2.5 -130 in Toulouse vs Benfica @ 12:45 ET - Down 2-1 based on the 1st Leg result, Toulouse must be aggressive from the onset here. While I am expect that to result in some scoring from the home side here, it also opens things up for the red hot attacking side of Benfica on the counter. Note that Benfica enters this one having scored an average of 3 goals per match in their last 11 matches across all competitions. 6 straight Benfica matches have totaled at least 3 goals. 4 straight Toulouse matches have totaled at least 3 goals! Double Perfect trends favoring the over here. OVER 2.5 -130 in Toulouse |
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02-22-24 | Ajax Amsterdam v. Bodo / Glimt OVER 3.25 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -112 | 4 h 56 m | Show |
Rotation #236041: Europa Conference League | Knockout Round Playoffs | 2nd Leg: Thursday OVER 3.5 +100 in Bodo / Glimt vs Ajax Amsterdam @ 12:45 ET - Ajax had to rally for the 2-2 draw in the first leg. As tough as that match was for them as they finally responded twice very late, Ajax again proved why their attacking style is so tough on the opposition. Ajax is known for goals and Bodo / Glimt will also enjoy success on their home pitch here in the type of match that could work itself into another 2-2 draw. Note that Ajax has both scored and conceded in a remarkable run of 14 straight matches - no clean sheets for them or the opposition! Note also that 6 straight Ajax road matches have totaled at least 4 goals and those 6 matches averaged 5 goals apiece! Look for this one to take that run to a PERFECT 7-0 L7! As for Bodo / Glimt, the club from Norway has averaged 2 goals per match last 6 all competitions but also allowed 3 goals per match in that 6-match stretch across all competitions. Look for a 3-2 type final here or at least 2-2. Don't let the big number scare you away on this one. OVER 3.5 +100 in Bodo / Glimt |
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02-21-24 | Real Salt Lake v. Inter Miami OVER 3 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -130 | 17 h 7 m | Show |
Rotation #209801: Major League Soccer: Wednesday OVER 3 -130 in Inter Miami vs Real Salt Lake @ 8 ET - Real Salt Lake gave up 1.5 goals per match last season and was one of the better road clubs in the league last season. Inter Miami gave up 1.6 goals per match last season and they have not looked great in their recent matches leading up to the new MLS season in terms of being a bit disorganized and these mistakes leading to too many goals conceded. At the same time Real Salt Lake is known for issues at the back and making mistakes in front of their own goal. That sets this one up well to be a back and forth match with plenty of scoring chances. Inter Miami made some big offseason additions and looks much improved as Lionel Messi now has more talent around him. They will look to make a big statement here at home in their season opener and they are a 1-goal favorite with good reason. However, Real Salt Lake has the attacking power to stick around in this match and I would not be surprised to see a 3-2 type match here in an exciting season opener to lift the lid on a new season. OVER 3 -130 in Inter Miami |
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02-21-24 | Flyers -1.5 v. Blackhawks | Top | 3-1 | Win | 130 | 6 h 57 m | Show |
NHL Wednesday Philadelphia Flyers -1.5 +110 @ Chicago Blackhawks @ 7:35 ET - The Blackhawks have been struggling mightily. Even with Connor Bedard back this team just does not have enough to compete on most nights. Tonight it will be even tougher as little used - and struggling - Arvid Soderblom is expected to get the start tonight. He has struggled mightily and the Blackhawks just do not win with him in the crease - 0 wins in last dozen appearances. Chicago is facing a Flyers team hungry for a win after losing that outdoor game against New Jersey in MetLife Stadium in tough fashion. It was an off-night for Philly defensively and in goal but they did generate 48 shots on goal in that game and then when you look at home the Hurricanes just thoroughly outplayed the Blackhawks in Monday's game, you can see why Philly should win this one in dominating fashion. Chicago's last 11 losses have featured 8 by a multi-goal margin and the most alarming thing is that the Blackhawks have scored an average of only 1.1 goals per game in their last 19 losses! When you score just 1 goal per game on average you are going to lose bad most nights. That will be the case again tonight against a Flyers team that will be completely amped up for this game. PHILADELPHIA -1.5 +110 |
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02-21-24 | Oklahoma State v. Cincinnati -10 | Top | 80-76 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
Rotation #682 CBB Wednesday Cincinnati Bearcats (-) vs Oklahoma State Cowboys @ 7 ET - This one is set up perfect as Oklahoma State off a rare big upset win as they beat BYU this past weekend plus they have a huge revenge game with rival Oklahoma on deck this weekend. Also, the Cowboys are on the road where they are 0-7 SU this season! The average margin of defeat in those games is 14 points! They are now in the wrong place at the wrong time as, even though Cincinnati is off a road win, the Bearcats are not happy at all about their two most recent home games. Those were both losses on their home floor (though they faced two tough ranked teams) and so now the Cats will take out their home court payback on a weak Cowboys team that always struggles away from home. This is a rare case where I have hesitation in laying the big number. Yes this one is a -10 as of 7 hours before tipoff but the Bearcats are destined to roll to a rout in this one. Keep in mind the Cats home schedule in Big 12 has been brutal with facing ranked teams in 6 of 7 games. They take full advantage of a rare reprieve here. CINCINNATI (-) |
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02-21-24 | Illinois -7.5 v. Penn State | Top | 89-90 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
Rotation #659 CBB Wednesday Illinois Illini (-) at Penn State Nittany Lions @ 6:30 ET - This one is set up perfect as Illinois was favored over the Nittany Lions in the Big Ten tourney last season yet lost. The Illini ended up losing all 3 meetings with Penn State last season. You think Illinois has forgotten something like this? Of course not! Adding to the value here is the Nittany Lions are without Kanye Clary. He was their leading scorer and, arguably, their best player this season. He is gone for the season and will be entering the transfer portal. How did it effect the Lions so far? Well, they went on the road and got blasted at Nebraska in the first game without him again. He had been playing sparingly of late and the result of that was being reflected on the scoreboard as well! When he has played less than 10 minutes or missed a game entirely, the Nittany Lions have lost all 4 games and all defeats were by at least a dozen points! Penn State, overall, enter this game having lost 3 straight. Now they face a revenge-minded Illinois team that has won 7 of 9 games and, schematically, matches up very well with PSU on both ends of the floor. That means I can describe this match-up with two words truly...Road Rout! The line is 7.5 as of 6 hours before tipoff. Lay it! ILLINOIS (-) |
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02-21-24 | Barcelona FC v. Napoli OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -130 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
Rotation #224225: Champions League | Round of 16 | 1st Leg Wednesday OVER 2.5 -130 in Napoli vs Barcelona @ 3 ET - Napoli is on their 3rd head coach already this season! He is newly appointed and Francesco Calzona will be leading the club for the first time here. I expect a "manager bounce" here as a result. What I mean by this is a huge response from Napoli and they are on their home pitch and the players know they certainly have played a role in now working on a 3rd manager just this season alone! Napoli, having underachieved this season, will be very aggressive on their home pitch here. However, while I expect this to lead to some goal-scoring success, they will struggle to stop a Barcelona club that has been consistently finding the back of the net! Barcelona has scored at least 1 goal in 21 straight matches across all competitions and averaged scoring 2 goals per match during this red hot run. However, Barcelona has also allowed 2 goals per match on average in their last 17 matches. In other words, the goals should absolutely fly in this one! Barcelona's last 8 road matches have averaged 5 goals apiece and all 8 of them totaled at least 3 goals and went over the total. PERFECT 8-0 RUN to the Over in Barcelona away matches! OVER 2.5 -130 in Napoli |
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02-21-24 | Luton Town v. Liverpool OVER 3.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
Rotation #200005: English Premier League: Wednesday OVER 3.5 -110 in Liverpool vs Luton Town @ 2:30 ET - I am well aware each club has some injury issues. However, Luton Town has been allowing goals at an alarming rate for much of this season and now they visit a Liverpool club that averages scoring 3 goals per match when they are hosting in EPL action. Also, the Reds have allowed at least 1 goal in 7 straight home matches! So, with Liverpool not exactly stellar defensively (even on their home pitch) but also lethal on the attack and with plenty of goal-scoring options, it makes sense to expect plenty of goals here. Liverpool is favored by 2 goals on the goal line with good reason and, given all of the above, one can logically expect a 3-1 type match here at a minimum. Luton Town has seen their 7 matches since Christmas Day average 4.4 goals apiece! Liverpool has seen ALL 6 of their matches in league action total at least 4 goals (and average 5 goals) so far in 2024! Look for this run to reach a PERFECT 7-0 on the year here as another high-scoring battle looms large in this one! OVER 3.5 -110 in Liverpool |
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02-21-24 | Maccabi Haifa v. Gent OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -112 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
Rotation #236033: Europa Conference League | Knockout Round Playoffs | 2nd Leg Wednesday OVER 2.5 -115 in Gent vs Maccabi Haifa @ Noon ET - Gent lost the 1st Leg 1-0 at Maccabi Haifa. However, now they are back home where they have been strong historically in Europa Conference League matches and, in fact, have won 5 straight of them here and scored an average of 3.6 goals per victory in that 5-match winning streak! Down 1-0, Gent must be aggressive here on the attack. They can not just sit back as they must get the equalizer. However, Maccabi Haifa has scored at least 1 goal in 11 straight matches across all competitions and averaged 2 goals per match during this stretch. Given their overall strength coupled with the strength of this host when on their home pitch, I am banking on a 2-1 type final in this one! OVER 2.5 -115 in Gent |
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02-20-24 | Pittsburgh +7 v. Wake Forest | Top | 58-91 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
CBB Tuesday Pittsburgh Panthers (+) @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons @ 9 ET - This line is in the 6.5 range as of 14 hours before tipoff. Wake Forest is solid but they are still just 5-6 L11 games and also 2 of their last 5 home wins have been by 4 or less points. Now they are laying more than a half dozen points to a Pittsburgh team that has proven to be ultra tough on the road this season. Not only have the Panthers won 5 straight overall and 7 of their last 8 overall, lets talk about their play away from home. Pittsburgh is 7-2 in their last 9 games away from home (one was neutral site) and 1 of the 2 losses was by just 4 points! These are road records we are talking about ladies and gentlemen...Pitt has traveled very well this season! Also, 3 of the 4 recent ones were at Duke, NC State and Virginia. Those 3 teams have an average of 19 wins on the season and the Panthers won at their venue! Yes, the Demon Deacons have revenge for a loss at Pitt earlier this season but WF is off huge games versus Duke and Virginia plus has the revenge match-up with big bad Duke on deck! I would not be surprised to see Wake struggle some here in this spot and nothing comes easy against this Pitt team. They are scrappy and hang around in games and the points are just too much here. Wake has 7 wins since the calendar turned the page to 2024 but only 4 of them (out of 13 games!) have been WF victories by more than a margin of 6 points. Excellent underdog value here. PITTSBURGH (+) |
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02-20-24 | Senators v. Panthers OVER 6.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
NHL Tuesday OVER 6.5 -125 in Florida Panthers vs Ottawa Senators @ 7 ET - The Senators are off a 4-2 win yesterday but they had goalie Forsberg back. That means option today would be him in a B2B which is always tough on a goalie or, the more likely option, Korpisalo. Note that Korpisalo has been struggling for quite some time here and he is facing a red hot Panthers team. Before getting into Florida's lethal run in the offensive zone, note that the Senators have solid firepower as well. The Sens have scored about 3.5 goals last 7 games. They should enjoy success here again tonight but also won't be able to stop the red hot Panthers. Florida has won 9 of 10 games and also has scored an average of 4 goals per game in their last 13 games! Coming off a big win at rival Tampa Bay and having a tough game at Carolina on deck, the Panthers may be lacking in defensive intensity here as goals have been coming easy and they have been winning with offense! That means this one could very well turn into a true barn-burner! Look for a 4-3 type game in this one if not 5-3 or 5-4. The goals will be flying here! OVER 6.5 -125 in Florida |
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02-20-24 | Islanders v. Penguins OVER 5.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
NHL Tuesday OVER 5.5 in Pittsburgh Penguins vs New York Islanders @ 7 ET - The Islanders off that crazy 6-5 loss in their match-up at MetLife Stadium against the rival Rangers. The Isles have been playing a little better and have picked up at least a point in the standings in 5 of last 6 games as only one was a loss in regulation. Also, the Islanders have averaged scoring 3 goals during this 6-game stretch. Also the Islanders have scored at least 3 goals in each of their last 4 road/neutral site games! The Penguins will force the Isles to score to keep up in this one as Pittsburgh comes in fired up to get back on track. That is why I fully expect each team to get to 3 goals here and we have excellent line value with this total dropping from a 6 to a 5.5 as of 9 hours before puck drop. Note that the Penguins have lost 4 of 5 but are happy to be back on home ice here after a rare low-scoring home loss to a Kings team that is bouncing back again. The Penguins do tend to score better when hosting. Most Pittsburgh home games this season the Pens reach at least the 3-goal mark. They will play with an extra urgency here given the situation but the Penguins also are facing an Islanders team that comes in with urgency as well after letting a 3-goal 2nd period lead slip away versus the Rangers in that eventual OT loss Sunday. Entertaining affair expected here that will surprise many as the goal-scoring will be up in this one. OVER 5.5 in Pittsburgh |
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02-20-24 | Butler v. Villanova -6 | Top | 62-72 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
CBB Tuesday Villanova Wildcats (-) vs Butler Bulldogs @ 6:30 ET - Villanova has flipped a switch since an inexcusable loss in double-OT at Butler in late January. The Wildcats never trailed for the entirety of regulation in that game and even led by 14 late in the 2nd half but the game got away from them late and then it was an unreal double-OT loss as the final result. Nova had a "hangover" so to speak (and as to be expected following a soul-crushing loss) and so then lost a tough one in their next game but it was to a tough Top Ten Marquette team. So how did they respond since then? With defense! Villanova has since gone 3-1 and allowed 56 points or less in 4 straight games! You can bet they are going to "D up" again here against the Bulldogs. Yes, Villanova is in a must-win spot and while you can not blindly play "must-win" situations, this one has a lot going for it. The Wildcats are playing to keep their slim NCAA Tourney hopes alive and there has been a buy-in to defense. As for Butler, unlike Villanova, they have not bought into defense! The Bulldogs have allowed more than 70 in all 5 games since the miracle win over the Wildcats. Butler has gone 2-3 in this stretch and allowed an average of 80 ppg in this 5 games stretch! So one team allowing 53.5 ppg last 4 games and playing with revenge and playing at home and they face a team allowing 80 ppg last 5 games. The home team rolls by double digits here and this line is in the -6 range as of 11 hours before tipoff. VILLANOVA (-) |
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02-20-24 | Atletico Madrid v. Inter Milan UNDER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
Rotation #224218: Champions League | Round of 16 | 1st Leg: Tuesday UNDER 2.5 -135 in Inter Milan vs Atletico Madrid @ 3 ET - Inter Milan is at the very top of the Serie A table thanks in part to incredible play in the defensive end. They have allowed only a 1/2 goal per match on the season! Many clean sheets for Inter Milan. This being the 1st Leg of this battle and with stingy Inter Milan on their home pitch, I fully expect a defensive-minded masterpiece here. If either club does get on the board early they will then go into a lead-protect mode even with the match only 1-0. I say that because Atletico Madrid is in 4th place in the La Liga table as they are allowing only 1 goal per match. Trust me, I know both teams have attacking talents but neither one has a fear of winning 1-0 matches and this will be a tight, defensive-minded battle as both clubs play a protective brand of football in the first leg of this round of 16. UNDER 2.5 -135 in Inter Milan |
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02-20-24 | Borussia Dortmund v. PSV Eindhoven OVER 3 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
Rotation #224221: Champions League | Round of 16 | 1st Leg: Tuesday OVER 3 +105 in PSV Eindhoven vs Borussia Dortmund @ 3 ET - PSV is top of the Dutch Eredivisie table and averaging scoring 3 goals per match! Dortmund is a solid 4th in the Bundesliga table and averaging scoring 2 goals per match! Of course both clubs capable of playing some defense but attacking is the name of the game with PSV and their manager used to be a manager at Dortmund as well! Peter Bosz knows it is imperative for his side to take full advantage of home pitch here as they know it will be much tougher on the road in the 2nd leg. That said, you will see a lot of attacking here from a PSV club that loves to function in attack mode. PSV is known for this but Dortmund has the firepower to match them goal for goal here and this one sets up to be a 2-2 type of match with a sharing of the spoils! Note that Dortmund off a 1-1 draw but this was preceded by them scoring at least 3 goals in 4 of 5 matches! PSV has scored multiple goals in 10 of last 14 matches. We'll see goals galore here! OVER 3 +105 in PSV Eindhoven |
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02-20-24 | Brentford v. Manchester City OVER 3.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
Rotation #200001: English Premier League Tuesday OVER 3.5 +105 in Manchester City vs Brentford @ 2:30 ET - Brentford is in the wrong place at the wrong time. The Bees just got hammered 4-1 by Liverpool and that match was on Brentford's home pitch! Now they go on the road and face a Manchester City club that is not in a good mood for multiple reasons! They have watched Liverpool extend their lead at the top of the table and are coming off a disappointing 1-1 draw with Chelsea in which they had so many chances but failed to convert. Also, Haaland had a horrible game and will be ready to respond here. Another motivating factor is even though City got some revenge for last season with a 3-1 win at Brentford this season, note that the Bees won both matches with City last season including the one at Manchester! That was a RARE home loss for City and they will be out for revenge here and I expect them to be relentless on the attack here! City is favored by 2 goals on the goal line for this one and that is why I feel the best way to play this one for maximum value is the over 3.5 at plus money. Look for at least a 3-1 final here and we might see much more given the scenario here. Note too that Brentford should be good for making the net ripple as City is allowing 1 goal per match this season. Also, the Bees have scored at least 1 goal in 10 straight matches! OVER 3.5 +105 in Manchester City |
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02-19-24 | Senators v. Lightning OVER 7 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
NHL Monday OVER 7 +105 in Tampa Bay Lightning vs Ottawa Senators @ 7 ET - Was hoping we might see this dip to a 6.5 but even at 7 goals I love the over here. The first two meetings between these divisional foes this season have averaged 8.5 goals apiece. Also, the Lightning have seen 6 of last 9 games total at least 8 goals! Those 6 games averaged 9 goals apiece and I honestly would not be surprised to see a 5-4 type game here. The Senators are off B2B games that did not reach the 7-goal mark but this followed 10 of last 14 games all totaling 7 or more goals! Those 10 games averaged 8.6 goals apiece and this looks like a wild one! The Lightning have been explosive offensively but their usually ultra-sharp goalie Vasilevskiy has struggled. The Senators also are dangerous on the attack but can't keep the puck out of their own net. This is particularly a problem on the road too which is why the Sens have lost 14 of 21 away from home this season. This one should play out with a great pace and, just like the first two meetings this season, goal-scoring is the story in this one! OVER 7 +105 in Tampa Bay |
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02-19-24 | Virginia v. Virginia Tech OVER 126.5 | Top | 41-75 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
CBB Monday OVER the total in Virginia Tech Hokies vs Virginia Cavaliers @ 7 ET - The Cavs are off a 49-47 win and one thing comes to mind first when most people are asking about Virginia ... defense! Yes this Cavaliers team, as has so often been the case in recent years, wins games with defense. However, that is truly skewing the posted total on this game as it is only a 126.5 as of about 11 hours before tipoff. Note that Virginia's stellar defensive play tends not to travel! Indeed, the home / road dichotomy is huge on the season. The Cavaliers in true road games this season have allowed an average of 69 points per game! No OT included! Those are per game regulation average points allowed by this stellar Virginia defense. Being on the road has made a huge difference for them all season long. Now they face the rival Hokies at Virginia Tech and the hosts are getting love from the marketplace and up to a 3.5 point favorite in this one. The Hokies want revenge for a 65-57 loss at Virginia earlier this season. If you look at their past 14 games, that is THE ONLY ONE for the Hokies that has totaled less than 132 points and, at Virginia Tech the points will pile up in this one unlike the first meeting at Virginia. Even that one got to the low 120s but on the season Hokies games are averaging 145 points. I am not saying we get to that level but the point is we have a lot of wiggle room here in a game that should get to at least the mid 130s the way I see. 69 to 66 sounds about rate based an all of the above statistical support. OVER the total in Virginia Tech |
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02-19-24 | Jets -124 v. Flames | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -124 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
NHL Monday Winnipeg Jets -125 @ Calgary Flames @ 4 ET - The Jets have revenge for a 5-3 loss here at the beginning of the season. Winnipeg comes in hot with 3 straight wins plus the Jets have allowed only 2.27 goals per game this season as they are so strong defensively and in goal. Conversely, the Flames have lost 3 straight games and Markstrom got pulled in the most recent game and Vladar had been on the IR. He is back now but he and Wolf have both failed to impress and Markstrom is generally very streaky. Calgary has lost 3 straight games by a combined score of 13 to 3 and I look at this is the perfect spot to get the Jets at a great price because they are on the road for this one. WINNIPEG -125 |
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02-19-24 | Crystal Palace v. Everton OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
Rotation #200101: English Premier League: Monday OVER 2.5 +120 in Everton vs Crystal Palace @ 3 ET - Most are looking under here and I get it. I understand it. But this is a huge value with the plus money on an over when you consider Everton should score well at home and Crystal Palace will play with an edge here. The visitors want to win this one for their manager who has been in a recent stay in the hospital. Crystal Palace fully capable of scoring here and will be motivated but their weak rearguard is a major concern. These clubs had some recent low-scoring battles in English FA Cup action but Everton has scored 3 goals in 2 of the last 3 meetings and Palace had 2 goals in the most recent meeting. Everton has allowed 2 goals in 3 of last 4 matches across all competitions. Also, Everton has scored 4 goals in their last 3 matches on their home pitch across all competitions. Yes, Everton is known for defense first but, at home and facing a leaky opposing backline, look for the hosts to be more aggressive than usual as they look to take advantage. Crystal Palace, in English Premier League matches, had had 5 straight total at least 3 goals and also 8 of last 9 total at least 3 goals and that includes 4 in a row in on enemy soil in EPL action. Considering these numbers and the unique situation here involving the CP manager, look for plenty of scoring in this one. OVER 2.5 +120 in Everton |
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02-19-24 | Steaua Bucharesti v. Universitatea Cluj OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
Rotation #206853: Romania Liga 1 Monday OVER 2.5 +110 in Universitatea Cluj vs FCSB @ 1:30 ET - Each of the last 3 meetings between these clubs have seen both clubs score and those meetings averaged 3 goals apiece. 4 of the last 5 matches for Universitatea Cluj have totaled at least 3 goals. However, they have not won any of their last 3 matches and will be hungry to topple the table-leading club from FCSB in this one! Note that FCSB has not won any of the last 3 meetings between these clubs so they will be extra hungry for a road win here as well. Given all of the above I fully expect an entertaining 2-1 type match in this one. FCSB has a 1-0 win and 1-1 draw so far this month but they will open up the offensive production here in a road match in which they desperately want the full 3 points. Note that FCSB preceded those 2 matches with 4 straight totaling at least 3 goals and the goals will be flying again in this one given the way Universitatea Cluj has seen goals galore in 4 of their last 5 matches. Amazingly, FCSB has scored at least 1 goal in all 12 of their road matches this season and averaged scoring 2 goals per match in these dozen matches away from home! Universitatea Cluj has scored 5 goals in their 4 matches since the winter break and will again make the net ripple here at home in this one! OVER 2.5 +110 in Universitatea Cluj |
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02-19-24 | Maple Leafs v. Blues OVER 6.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 26 m | Show |
NHL Monday OVER 6.5 -105 in St Louis Blues vs Toronto Maple Leafs @ 1 ET - The Maple Leafs are off a 9-2 win and playing with much more confidence courtesy of winning 4 of last 5 games. Their games have been trending over as well with 4 of last 5 totaling at least 7 goals and I expect more of the same here! The Blues have seen 10 of last 15, including 3 of last 4, games total at least 7 goals! They also have some added confidence from winning 3 of last 5 and scoring an average of 5 goals in the 3 wins. The goals should fly in this non-conference battle. OVER 6.5 in St Louis |
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02-19-24 | Konyaspor v. Besiktas OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -117 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
Rotation #207849: Turkish Super Lig: Monday OVER 2.5 -120 in Besiktas vs Torku Konyaspor @ Noon ET - Besiktas won the prior meeting this season 2-0 but this followed both clubs scoring in each of the 3 most recent meetings prior to that. The last 4 meetings averaged 3 goals apiece and we should get there again today. Konyaspor has seen their road matches average approximately 3 goals apiece this season with roughly an average result of a loss by a 2-1 count. That looks like a highly probable outcome here as Besiktas is favored by one goal on the goal line with good reason. Besiktas is averaging 1.5 goals scored per match when at home this season and, now facing a club in the relegation zone they certainly will take advantage and produce a multi-goal output here. Besiktas will be ready to go after a scoreless draw in most recent match which was on road. Now they are back at home where they scored 2 goals in most recent match. Also, in their 5 home matches across all competitions from late November to mid-January all 5 totaled at least 3 goals plus averaged 4 goals apiece. This is a bounce back spot for them on their home pitch coming off a draw and they will take full advantage of facing a lesser foe but look for Konyaspor to make the net ripple as well. Besitkas has some injury issues so this will also help open things up for the attackers that the visitors possess but ultimately the hosts prevail 2-1 mostly likely here. Either way, even if an upset occurs, 3 or more goals appears likely here. OVER 2.5 -120 in Besiktas |
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02-19-24 | Farul Constanta 1920 v. Sepsi OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
Rotation #206849: Romania Liga 1 Monday OVER 2.5 +105 in Sepsi vs Farul @ 10:30 AM ET - Farul scored 7 goals in the 4 meetings between these clubs in calendar year 2023. Sepsi scored at least once in each of the last 3 meetings so you can see why I am anticipating another 2-1 type match between these clubs. Helping the cause is both clubs are coming off shutout losses. I like coming back with overs in spots like this when both clubs are off a match in which they failed to score. Prior to last week's embarrassing 2-0 home loss to Dinamo, Farul had scored at least 1 goal in 3 straight matches. Sepsi, prior to last week's 1-0 road loss to 1st place club FCSB, had scored at least 1 goal in 8 straight matches and averaged scoring 2 goals per match during this stretch. 4 straight Sepsi home matches have totaled at least 3 goals and look for that 100% trend to make it 5 in a row here! OVER 2.5 +105 in Sepsi |
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02-18-24 | Coyotes v. Avalanche -1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
NHL Sunday Colorado Avalanche -1.5 -105 vs Arizona Coyotes @ 6:07 ET - The Coyotes are struggling badly and have lost 8 straight games and many losses by multiple goal margins this season. They are now in the wrong place at the wrong time. Arizona just got slaughtered at home by Carolina and now they face an Avalanche team they beat in the most recent meeting. Surprisingly the Coyotes have taken 2 of 3 from the Avs this season but both wins were in Arizona and came in OT. The lone game at Colorado was an Avalanche win and the Avs won it 4 to 1. Considering that plus the fact that the Avalanche are off a road loss and overall a very tough road stretch, this one sets up perfect. Colorado is so happy to be back home and they have won their last 4 games here by a combined score of 18 to 6. The Avalanche are angry and seeking revenge and they should dominate here as the Coyotes freefall continues! COLORADO -1.5 -105 |
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02-18-24 | Rangers v. Islanders OVER 5.5 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 23 m | Show |
NHL Sunday OVER 5.5 -115 in NY Islanders vs NY Rangers @ 3 ET at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ - This is another outdoor game in the Stadium Series and yesterday we saw the Flyers and Devils combine for 9 goals. Quite a few great opportunities created off turnovers and no matter who good the work on the ice is at these outdoor games, it is not as perfect as indoor games. That said, there seemed to be a few turnovers and odd man rushes caused yesterday by this extra element and that created great scoring chances. I expect more of the same in this one. Also, note that the Islanders will be looking to bounce back off a low-scoring loss to the Kraken which was preceded by scoring 11 goals in 3 games! The Rangers have won 6 straight games and averaged scoring 4 goals in this hot streak. The total at just 5.5 is a great value here even though I do respect the goalies in this match-up. Note that the Rangers have seen 9 of last 12 road games total at least 6 goals. This one will too! OVER 5.5 -115 in NY Islanders |
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02-18-24 | North Texas +2.5 v. UAB | Top | 62-71 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
CBB Sunday North Texas Mean Green (+) @ UAB Blazers @ 3 ET - Yes, Jones is out for the Mean Green and Noland has missed 4 straight games. However, Jones has played in only 14 of North Texas' 24 games this season. The bigger current injury is Noland but the odds makers knew it when they set the early opener for this one and that was damn near a pick'em. Of course UAB is at home and with the better record and so every one jumped all over the Blazers. I love fading in cases like this as everyone feels UAB is easy money at home. Even if Noland does not come back for this one (decent chance he is back) I do like the Mean Green plenty here. They are the much better defensive team in comparison with the Blazers. Also, they have revenge from an OT loss at home against the Blazers earlier this season. Also, again the "trap line" theory is in effect here. UAB is undefeated in AAC home games this season and yet this line opened near a pick'em. Note that the Mean Green have lost 3 of last 4 road games. This is another one of those classic "someone knows something" match-ups! I love the extra line value here after the line move and I like having the stronger defense on my side plus in full-on revenge mode! Give me the points but we should not need them. NORTH TEXAS (+) |
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02-18-24 | Otelul v. Dinamo Bucuresti OVER 1.75 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
Rotation #206845: Romania Liga 1 Sunday OVER 2 +125 in Dinamo Bucuresti vs Otelul Galati @ 1 ET - Low total here because of the long-term history of these clubs but the ere is too much value to pass up on in this one. Not only is the total just 2 goals in this one but the over is available as high as a +125 in the marketplace. Note that Dinamo can build on momentum off a 2-0 win in their most recent match and they have now scored at least 1 goal in 3 straight matches. Prior to the shutout win however, Dinamo allowed 1.7 goals last 3 matches and they are far from being water-tight defensively! Galati is off a 1-0 win but they allowed 13 goals in their 9 matches preceding that one. Also, Galati has scored at least 1 goal in 6 straight road matches for an average of 1.7 goals scored per match away from home! Given these numbers above and the recent improved play of Dinamo the over is the play here. Each club will have added confidence coming off respective victories as well and there will be more attacking in this one than what most are expecting. OVER 2 +125 in Dinamo Bucuresti |
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02-18-24 | Purdue v. Ohio State +9 | Top | 69-73 | Win | 100 | 7 h 48 m | Show |
CBB Sunday Ohio State Buckeyes (+) vs Purdue Boilermakers @ 1 ET - Too many points as this is in the 8.5 range as of 7 hours before tipoff. The Buckeyes just fired their head coach Tuesday. The assistant is taking over and he has been with the program for years and he comes from a family of players and coaches. They have their footprint in Ohio basketball at various levels in this state. Now, I am not saying the Buckeyes are going to beat the Boilermakers here but I do expect a huge response at home after the firing of the coach. Also, Ohio State has lost each of the last two meetings with Purdue in Columbus by just a bucket each. The Buckeyes have a fair amount of size to at least throw some bodies at Edey. The Boilermakers big man is in a class of his own of course but he won't be able to completely dominate here. Plus, is Purdue starting to wear down a little bit? They were down 10 to Minnesota and had to rally in their most recent game. They did and they won by 8 but that was at home. These Buckeyes have underachieved but they are very talented and I expect them to surprise the Boilers here and absolutely turn this into a back and forth slugfest. Give me the big points. OHIO STATE (+) |
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02-18-24 | Manchester United v. Luton Town OVER 3 | Top | 2-1 | Push | 0 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
Rotation #200097: English Premier League Sunday OVER 3 -115 in Luton Town vs Manchester United @ 11:30 AM ET - Luton Town just got hammered 3-1 by Sheffield and this was on their home pitch! Now they are home again but facing a much tougher foe so I can not see this one turning out any better for Luton Town! Note that they have had 5 of last 6 matches in league action total at least 4 goals and those 6 matches averaged 5 goals apiece. On the season they are averaging 1.5 goals scored when at home but, overall, allowing 2 goals per match on the season. Luton Town scoring better of late but still struggling defensively and in goal in most of their matches. Man U only won 1-0 in the first meeting this season but won the prior match-up at Luton Town 3-0. Also, Manchester United enters this match-up undefeated in last 6 matches across all competitions and they have scored 3 goals per match during this streak! In other words, Man U getting to 3 here all by themselves would certainly not be a shock but I do expect Luton Town to contribute to the scoring on their home pitch and that helps insure we see 4 or more in this one! OVER 3 -115 in Luton Town |
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02-18-24 | CS U Craiova v. Botosani OVER 2.25 | Top | 2-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
Rotation #206841: Romania Liga 1 Sunday OVER 2.5 +120 in FC Botosani vs Universitatea Craiova @ 10:15 AM ET - Universitatea Craiova has scored an average of 2 goals in last 5 meetings. FC Botosani has scored an average of 1.5 goals in last 2 meetings on their home pitch. As bad as the Botosani season has been, they have shown signs of life lately. They are 3-1-1 in last 5 matches and have scored 1.4 goals per match during this stretch. They have allowed 1.7 goals in last 3 matches however and conceding too many goals has been a consistent problem for Botosani all season long. Universitatea Craiova will take advantage of that just like they did in a 5-1 home win earlier this season. Entering this match, Universitatea Craiova has had 7 straight matches total at least 3 goals and I am happy to put this 7-0 run to the over to the test in this one! Look for at least a 2-1 final here and take advantage of the plus money available on the over in this one. OVER 2.5 +120 in Universitatea Craiova |
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02-18-24 | Brighton & Hove Albion v. Sheffield United OVER 3 | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 5 h 48 m | Show |
Rotation #200105: English Premier League Sunday OVER 3 -105 in Sheffield United vs Brighton & Hove @ 9 AM ET - Sheffield off a rare win so they will be playing with rare added confidence here but this is still a club in the basement of the league that is allowing 2.5 goals per match on the campaign! They recently got hammered by Brighton too when they faced off in the English FA Cup and lost 5 to 2. Note that 6 straight Sheffield matches across all competitions have totaled at least 4 goals and those matches averaged 5 goals apiece! Brighton enters this one hungry as they are off a 2-1 loss so I expect them to be relentless on the attack here. Brighton has had 4 straight matches across all competitions total at least 3 goals and those matches averaged 4 goals apiece. Incredibly, before the 2-1 loss at Tottenham, Brighton had either scored or conceded at least 4 goals in 4 of last 5 matches. 4 makes us a winner here and I am looking for a 3-1 or 3-2 type match here given all of the above. OVER 3 -105 in Sheffield United |
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02-17-24 | Colorado -120 v. USC | Top | 92-89 | Win | 100 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
Rotation #811: CBB Saturday Colorado Buffaloes -1.5 or Pick -120 @ USC Trojans @ 10 PM ET - This is a great spot to fade USC. The Trojans are off a win! Since they started the season 4-1, USC has lost 14 of 20 games and only won B2B games ONE SINGLE TIME in this 20-game stretch. I am happy to challenge this bad Southern Cal team to try and win B2B games here. I know the Buffaloes have had trouble on the road this season but they nearly beat a red hot UCLA team a few nights ago. Unlike the Bruins, the Trojans have been cold overall. In other words, strong odds that the Buffs get the win as they take on the much weaker of the SoCal Pac-12 teams this time around! The Buffaloes are off B2B losses and only ONE SINGLE TIME this season have they lost 3 straight games. You can see why I feel the odds, based on this situation, strongly favor the Buffs to prevail. However, if you look at the overall body of work of these two teams in Pac-12 action, you can also see why it is easy to back Colorado here. The Buffaloes are only 5-4 L9 games but 3 of the 4 losses came against teams that are 29-12 in the Pac-12 this season. The point is that Colorado has, for the most part, handled business in the games they are expected to. Now they take on a Trojans team that has just 2 wins last 10 games and the two victories were against teams that are now a combined 9-19 in Pac-12 action. Against teams like the Buffaloes (and including a loss at Colorado) - teams that are currently at least a .500 team in Pac-12 games this season - the Trojans went a sparking 0-7 SU in that 2-8 run. In other words, USC has struggled badly against teams at the Buffaloes level and higher and I fully expect that to continue here given the great situation with Buffs off B2B losses and USC off rare B2B wins! Grab the road team. COLORADO (-) |
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02-17-24 | Flyers +125 v. Devils | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
NHL Saturday Philadelphia Flyers Money Line +125 @ New Jersey Devils @ 8 ET - Outdoor Game at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ - The Flyers offer a lot of value in this game. They are a sizable underdog coming off a loss after winning 4 straight games. They have not lost a game in regulation since late January before the All-Star break. The road team has won both games between these teams this season and this is a key divisional game and there is little home ice edge. The Devils are off a loss and have been stumbling a bit. The last 5 losing streaks have included a 1-gamer and FOUR 2-gamers. In other words, the Devils have been consistently unable to bounce back off a standalone loss. Also, New Jersey has lost 5 of last 8 on home ice so I feel we have value backed into the line here as the home ice edge is non-existent in a game like this. Flyers get the win as the Devils lose for the 11th time last 17 games. The Flyers are the better team in terms of limiting goals against and limiting shots on goal and defense and solid goaltending from Ersson lead the way in this one. PHILADELPHIA +125 |
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02-17-24 | Ducks v. Maple Leafs OVER 6.5 | Top | 2-9 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
NHL Saturday OVER 6.5 in Toronto vs Anaheim @ 7 ET - Samsonov has allowed at least 3 goals in 3 of last 4 starts and I am looking for a 4-3 type final here. Toronto is off a 4-3 win over the Flyers in OT and they have now scored an average of 4 goals last 4 games. The Ducks have scored a little better of late and have some momentum from a 5-1 win at Ottawa Thursday. Anaheim has now scored at least 3 goals in 7 of last 9 games. However, prior to holding the Senators to one goal, the Ducks had allowed nearly 4 goals per game last 8 games. Maple Leafs loaded with firepower but they always seem to have trouble in their own zone and in goal so don't be surprised if each team gets to the 3-goal mark here and that would, of course, lead to at least a 4-3 final OVER 6.5 in Toronto |
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02-17-24 | CFR Cluj v. U Craiova 1948 OVER 2.5 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
Rotation #206837: Romania Liga 1: Saturday OVER 2.5 -110 in FCU 1948 Craiova vs CFR Cluj @ 2:30 ET - One of the things I like about getting involved with totals involving this FCU 1948 Craiova club is they have the fewest draws in the league with just 3 in 25 matches. That is a 12% draw rate. Logically, the odds favor at least a 2-1 final in any match where it is also within reason to expect each club to score. Summary, both clubs score and the match does not end in a draw then this means a 2-1 final at least! I feel we certainly have strong odds of that here as FCU 1948 Craiova matches are averaging 3 goals this season. Also, CFR Cluj does allow an average of 1 goal per match but also is one of the highest scoring clubs in the league as they average 1.7 goals scored per match. CFR Cluj is fired up off a 1-0 home loss to Rapid Bucuresti and CFR Cluj entered that one averaging 2 goals scored per match in their last 6 matches. Also, CFR Cluj has averaged 1.8 goals scored in the last 5 meetings between these clubs plus FCU 1948 Craiova scored 3 goals the most recent time they hosted CFR Cluj. I love the fact that both clubs enter this match off 1-0 losses. Note that FCU 1948 Craiova had scored at least 1 goal in 12 of last 13 matches prior to that. They bounce back at home here but CFR Cluj also in bounce back mode and this one will feature a lot of attacking. OVER 2.5 -110 in FCU 1948 Craiova |
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02-17-24 | St. Joe's v. Duquesne OVER 146.5 | Top | 56-66 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 46 m | Show |
Rotation #657: CBB Saturday OVER the total in Duquesne Dukes vs St Joseph's Hawks @ 2:30 ET - Duquesne scored 59 in their most recent loss on the road and coincidentally they are now back home where they also scored just 59 points in their most recent game. That is helping to give us line value with this total here because both teams are going to emphasize offense here. More about St Joseph's impact on that in just a minute but, first off, note that Duquesne's other two recent games saw them win both and average scoring 80 and allowing 70. Now, about those Hawks, St Joseph's loves to run and gun and pays little attention to defense. The Dukes will also be looking for big production on the offensive end considering they have scored just 59 in most recent game and also in most recent home game. The Hawks also off a loss in which they did not shoot well at all. This was a rare ugly game for them on the offensive end. Prior that, and in the Hawks last 6 games since a 71-69 win over this same Duquesne team, all 6 St Joe's games totaled at least 148 points! The total on this one, as of 5 hours before tipoff, is 146.5 points and I love the value here with both teams off ugly performances offensively. Those 6 Hawks games after the win over the Dukes averaged 164 ppg. This why I am projecting no problem getting to the 150s in this one. OVER the total in Duquesne |
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02-17-24 | Chelsea v. Manchester City OVER 3 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -135 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
Rotation #200081: English Premier League Saturday OVER 3 -135 in Manchester City vs Chelsea @ 12:30 ET - The last meeting was a crazy 4-4 draw in November. This one may not see that many goals but don't be surprised if each club scores multiple goals. Chelsea is scoring better of late and Manchester City continues to be a beast. Neither club has been great defensively. City has allowed at least 1 goal in 11 of last 13 matches in league action. Chelsea is allowing 2 goals per match on the road this season. City has scored 4 goals in 2 of last 3 meetings between these clubs. Mauricio Pochettino has helped Chelsea improve since he took over as manager and the bigger goal production expected is starting to come to fruition. Chelsea has scored an average of 2.5 goals over last 6 matches across all competitions. Specific to EPL action. Chelsea has had 3 straight matches total at least 4 goals and this one should too! City is scoring an average of nearly 3 goals in home matches in league action and this looks like a 3-2 or 3-1 type match. Manchester City has scored an average of 2.5 goals in last 8 EPL matches and scored at least 2 goals in all 8 of those matches! In EPL action, off a 2-0 win, but had allowed at least 1 goal in 11 of 12 matches before that. The only time in that 12-match stretch they did not it was against bottom feeders Sheffield United. That is why I am fully expecting plenty of scoring here. The over improves to 4-0 L4 Chelsea matches in EPL action! OVER 3 -135 in Manchester City |
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02-17-24 | Creighton -2.5 v. Butler | Top | 79-57 | Win | 100 | 5 h 58 m | Show |
Rotation #611 CBB Saturday Creighton Bluejays (-) @ Butler Bulldogs @ 12:30 ET - This is a revenge game for the Bluejays after they were beaten by the Bulldogs in Creighton by a single point in a very tough beat last month. Now the rematch is at Butler so we get a low number, as low as 2.5 as of 7 hours before tipoff, and I will not hesitate to step in on this one. Butler has had a few very tight wins this season and I feel this has inflated their value a bit. Yes they are at home for this one but the face a ranked foe that is out for revenge and that, on a more consistent basis, is the more dangerous team offensively! The stellar offensive production of Creighton is another reason they have won 4 of last 6 road games and one of those two losses was to #1 ranked UConn! That said, we get excellent value here as the Bluejays are the better shooting team and they catch the Bulldogs off losses in 2 of last 3 games. Not only that, Butler's last 5 wins included the crazy tight win over Creighton and a double-OT win over Villanova in a game they NEVER LED in regulation and a 3 point win over Providence in which Butler scored the final 7 points. Butler's other two wins were against DePaul and Georgetown and those two teams are a combined 1-26 in Big East action. My point here is that, against teams other the Blue Demons or Georgetown, in other words teams with pulse - Butler could very easily be on a 7-game losing streak. Their luck runs out here against revenge-minded and ranked Bluejays team. CREIGHTON (-) |
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02-17-24 | West Ham United v. Nottingham Forest OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 56 m | Show |
Rotation #200093: English Premier League Saturday OVER 2.5 -105 in Nottingham Forest vs West Ham United @ 10 AM ET - West Ham United off the 6-0 home beating at the hands of Arsenal last week. While they certainly would like to bounce back this week on the road, they actually are allowing an average of 2 goals per match when on the road this season. They are facing a Nottingham Forest club that scores and average of 1.5 goals when on their home pitch. The issue for Forest, just like West Ham, is they have certainly not been water tight defensively on the back line. West Ham has allowed an average of 3 goals in last 4 matches. I do expect them to get their attack going again here but again can not trust them defensively. As for Nottingham, they are getting healthier and certainly have some attacking options. However, they have allowed 9 goals in last 4 matches in league action. Forest also has scored and conceded in 7 straight EPL matches! Those matches have averaged 4 goals apiece! Also, 4 straight Nottingham EPL matches as a host have totaled at least 3 goals. Look for this one to make it 5 IN A ROW Saturday! OVER 2.5 -105 in Nottingham Forest |
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02-17-24 | UTA Arad v. Voluntari OVER 2.25 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -103 | 4 h 14 m | Show |
Rotation #206833: Romania Liga 1: Saturday OVER 2 -140 in FC Voluntari vs UTA @ 7 ET - Arad has gone over the total in 5 straight matches! All 5 of those totaled 3 or more goals and averaged 4 goals apiece! The last meeting between these clubs was a scoreless draw but this followed 4 straight meetings totaling at least 2 goals. This total is available at an over 2 in the marketplace so it is worth doing your line shopping with 2 being a key number in soccer totals. FC Voluntari enters this one off a scoreless draw but 3 straight matches prior to that totaled at least 2 goals and averaged 3 goals apiece. The hosts will be ready to bounce back on their home pitch after that scoreless draw but, at the same time, there is no slowing down this UTA club right now. The goals fly in this one. OVER 2 -140 in FC Voluntari |
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02-16-24 | Hurricanes -1.5 v. Coyotes | Top | 5-1 | Win | 127 | 16 h 13 m | Show |
NHL Friday Carolina Hurricanes Puck Line -1.5 +125 @ Arizona Coyotes @ 9 ET - Great set up here. The Hurricanes have been waiting three days for this game and so they will be raring to go because that game Tuesday night was a tough 4-2 loss at Dallas. The Canes faced a hot Stars team that night but now they face a struggling Coyotes team. Not only is Carolina a PERFECT 5-0 L5 times when off a loss, all but 1 of the wins was by a multi-goal margin. The last 3 times the Canes were off a loss and facing a Non-Conference opponent all 3 resulted in a win by a multi-goal margin. Now the Hurricanes take on a Western Conference club that has lost 7 straight and so that 3-0 run is being put to the test as the Canes look to bounce back off a loss. Not only has Arizona lost 7 straight but note that each of their last 10 losses to Eastern Conference foes have ALL come by at least a 2-goal margin! The point is that strong odds support that any Carolina win here should be by a multi-goal margin. The last time the Coyotes suffered a loss by a 1-goal margin to a non-conference opponent was way back in mid-October! This Arizona club was completely outplayed on on home ice in their 3-1 loss to Minnesota Wednesday. The Coyotes have now scored just 2.3 goals per game last 7 games. Arizona has allowed 4.3 goals per game last 7 games. The Hurricanes, prior to the 4-2 loss at Dallas, had allowed just 1.7 goals per game last 6 games. Prior to their loss to the Stars their most recent non-conference game was a 5-2 win over Colorado! They also beat the Coyotes 3-1 already this season and they have won 3 straight at Arizona all by 2 or more goals and with an average margin of victory of 3 goals. Couple that with the above 3-0 angle and we are testing a pair of 3-0 / 100% factors here that support the Hurricanes winning this game by at least a 2-goal margin. Also, consider that Carolina is favored by -200 on the money line so odds are strong they win this and that then brings into play the fact that 10 straight Arizona non-conf losses have been by 2+ goals! Great value here. The Hurricanes enter this one angry! CAROLINA -1.5 +125 |
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02-16-24 | Harvard v. Cornell -8.5 | Top | 62-75 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
CBB Friday Cornell Big Red (-) vs Harvard Crimson @ 6 ET - This line is around an 8.5 as of 12 hours before tipoff and, though I generally do not lay big points in spread sports, when the situation is right I will not hesitate. In this case you have a Cornell team coming off a rare loss. They are a PERFECT 3-0 this season when off a loss and all 3 wins were by a double digit margin. Also, the Big Red are a PERFECT 3-0 this season in home games in Ivy League action and all 3 wins were by a double digit margin! Cornell also is a PERFECT 7-0 this SEASON in home games! The last time they lost a home game was last February when they lost at home to (you guessed it!) Harvard! Now even though they just beat the Crimson at Harvard recently, that does not diminish the fact they want this game badly on their home floor. Cornell remembers the last time they lost at home AND they have much of that same core group intact this season. Conversely, Harvard had big turnover with their program. The Crimson team this season is a shell of the team that it was last season. That is another reason I am projecting the Big Red to roll big in this one and get that home court revenge they still want! This Crimson team is only 3-4 in Ivy League action this season and the 3 wins were against teams that are a combined 5-16 in league action! Also, one of the 4 losses was to a Brown team that is an ugly 6-16 on the season and just 1-5 against the rest of the Ivy League thus far! Additionally, Harvard has lost all 3 games against upper level teams Princeton, Cornell and Yale AND all 3 losses were by more than a dozen points apiece. This one gets ugly as the Big Red get the home court payback they have been waiting for as their last loss at home was to this Crimson team nearly ONE YEAR AGO to the day. Payback time! CORNELL (-) |
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02-16-24 | Getafe CF v. Villarreal OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
Rotation #201837: Spanish La Liga: Friday OVER 2.5 -105 in Villareal vs Getafe @ 3 ET - Excellent line value here. Villareal has conceded more goals (23) on their home pitch than any other La Liga club this season! Also, if you look at road stats for the top half of the table, no club has a worse goals against average than Getafe! On their travels they have conceded 23 times in 12 matches. So here we have a host allowing 2 goals per match at home and a traveler allowing 2 goals per match on the road. With only needing 3 to be a winner here, you can see why I love this spot for an over. Also, the 2.5 is available at a low price which is also an added value here! Note that Villareal has seen 10 of last 14 La Liga matches total at least 3 goals and those 14 matches have averaged 4 goals apiece. Getafe has scored at least 1 goal in 8 of last 10 matches and averaged 2 goals per match in those 8 matches in which they made the net ripple. Given all of the above and considering that Getafe has more road draws than any other club this season, don't be surprised if we see a 2-2 final here but, if not, at least 2-1 certainly seems highly probable. The hosts are off B2B draws so I know they will be aggressive on the attack in going for the much-needed full 3 points in the table in this one. At the same time, Getafe is off a 3-2 win and will feed off that momentum and play aggressively again here. OVER 2.5 -105 in Villareal |
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02-16-24 | Hermannstadt v. Rapid Bucuresti OVER 2.25 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -50 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
Rotation #206829: Romania Liga 1: Friday OVER 2 -140 or 2.25 +105 in Rapid Bucuresti vs Hermannstadt @ 1 ET - The value of playing an over when a total is a 2 is a big one and I like this spot for goals. Hermannstadt is coming off a scoreless draw at home. However, each of their last 7 road matches have totaled at least 2 goals. Overall, prior to the scoreless draw, Hermannstadt has scored 18 goals in their last 11 matches. This is a strong value on this total especially when you consider that Rapid is off a win but by just a 1-0 count. Note that Rapid has had each of last 11 home matches this season total at least 2 goals! That includes each of last 4 totaling at least 3 goals! Also, those 11 matches averaged 4 goals apiece! This is a great line value here and I fully expect that 4-0 over run in Rapid matches on their home pitch to make it 5 in row! OVER 2 -140 or 2.25 +105 in Rapid Bucuresti |
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02-16-24 | Lecce v. Torino OVER 2 | Top | 0-2 | Push | 0 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
Rotation #201325: Italian Serie A: Friday OVER 2 -130 in Torino vs Lecce @ 1 ET - I know Turino is known for low-scoring matches and is particularly tough to score on at home. However, they are not the only club involved here in terms of where this line comes from. This total is an over 2 at heavy juice but the value of a 2 is huge. Note that Lecce is scoring an average of 1 goal per match this season. However, they also are winless in their 12 road matches and have allowed 20 goals in those matches away from home. This one, the way I see it, is set up perfectly for a 2-1 type final. Note that Lecce has had 4 straight matches total at least 3 goals and those 4 averaged 4 goals apiece! As for Torino, even though known for lower-scoring matches, they have still seen 14 of last 21 get to at least 2 goals. Coming off B2B draws including a scoreless one in most recent home match, I fully expect them to take advantage of a lesser foe known for conceding a lot of goals on the road. In other words, the hosts will be aggressive on the attack here but don't be surprised when Lecce also gets at least one on the counter-attack here. OVER 2 -130 in Torino |
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02-16-24 | CSMS Iasi v. Petrolul 52 OVER 2 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
Rotation #206825: Romania Liga 1: Friday OVER 2 -105 in Petrolul Ploiesti vs Poli Iasi @ 10 AM ET - The value of playing an over when a total is a 2 is a big one and I like this spot for goals. Petrolul Ploiesti is coming off a scoreless draw on the road. However, as a host Petrolul Ploiesti has scored 6 goals in their last 5 matches. This one sets up perfectly because Poli Iasi is also off a scoreless draw! Prior to that, the last 9 Poli Iasi matches had totaled 30 goals for an average of 3.3 goals per match. Both clubs off scoreless efforts will be emphasizing the attack in this one. Also, the last 3 road matches for Poli Iasi all have totaled at least 3 goals and actually averaged 4.3 goals apiece. Look for this trend to reach a perfect 4-0 to the over here in this one. OVER 2 -105 in Petrolul Ploiesti |
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02-15-24 | Colorado -120 v. UCLA | Top | 60-64 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
Rotation #801 CBB Thursday Colorado Buffaloes Pick -120 or -1.5 @ UCLA Bruins @ 9 ET - Look at this one and tell me how it is possible the line is set this way? The Bruins have won 7 of 8 games with the only loss to a ranked Arizona team. Conversely, Colorado enters this one having lost 6 of 11 including 3 of last 4. The Buffaloes are also on the road for this game! So, consider all those factors and then consider that Colorado is favored on the road in this game even though the Bruins have been hot and and the Buffs have cooled and UCLA actually is now ahead of the Buffaloes in the Pac-12 standings. Must be some kind of mistake, right? Absolutely not! Long-time followers know how I feel about supposed "mistakes" by the odds makers. The fact is the Buffaloes match up very well with the Bruins and also their recent losses have included some very tough match-ups. Now they face a UCLA team they can handle and note that the Bruins recent wins have included 4 against the bottom 4 teams in the standings and when they faced the other team that currently has a losing Pac-12 record (Utes) they lost 90-44 at Utah. Don't let this line fool you. The road team gets it done here! COLORADO Pick -120 or -1.5 |
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02-15-24 | Bucks v. Grizzlies +11.5 | Top | 110-113 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
NBA Thursday Memphis Grizzlies (+) vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 8:30 ET - Current line on this one is 11.5 as of 10 hours before tipoff. With the Grizzlies off a rare win and the Bucks off an ugly home loss, it might seem like the perfect spot to back Milwaukee. However, Memphis has been scrappy even in their losses and I just not see them getting totally blown out at home here in this one. Note that Memphis is only 4-9 SU last 13 games but only two of those defeats were by more than 10 points. In other words, at the current +11.5 being offered here, the Grizzlies would be 11-2 ATS last 13 games! Now look at the Bucks road performances too and, overall, this team has not exactly been setting the world on fire since coach Doc Rivers took over. Note that Milwaukee is only 4-7 SU last 11 road games and 2 of those wins were against a bad Detroit team and NO the Bucks did not win either game by double digits! In fact, Milwaukee's two road wins in this stretch, other than the two over the Pistons, were by 4 against a bad San Antonio team and by 12 at Dallas. So the only truly ultra impressive Bucks road win since the calendar flipped the page to 2024 is just barely above the number posted on this game. I like our chances here when you consider that the win over the Mavericks was the only truly impressive road game in 11 tries for Milwaukee in 2024. Give me the big points here with a scrappy home underdog. 10* MEMPHIS (+) |
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02-15-24 | Flyers +135 v. Maple Leafs | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
NHL Thursday Philadelphia Flyers +135 @ Toronto Maple Leafs @ 7 ET - This is too strong of a dog value to pass up. The Maple Leafs have 13 wins on home ice this season but the Flyers have 15 wins on enemy ice this season! Philly continues to be one of the best stories in the NHL this season and they are showing no signs of slowing down. They have won 4 straight games and they are facing a Leafs team that is off a 4-1 win but Toronto had lost 7 of 12 games heading into that one. The Leafs are 0-4 the L4 times they entered a game off a win in which they scored at least 4 goals. The Flyers have allowed just 1.8 goals per game in their 4 games winning streak. The Leafs, prior to the 4-1 win, had allowed 4 goals per game last 3 games. Grab the underdog Flyers as Toronto drops to 0-5 L5 times they were off a win in which they scored at least 4 goals. Philly improves to 5-0 L5 games with an upset underdog win here. Line value. PHILADELPHIA +135 |
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02-15-24 | Panthers v. Sabres +137 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 3 m | Show |
NHL Thursday Buffalo Sabres Money Line +135 vs Florida Panthers @ 7 ET - Florida is off a big win but against a slumping Penguins club. Plus that victory was last night in Pittsburgh. So here is a nice opportunity to take a home dog and fade a team in a B2B with travel involved. I know the Panthers are a strong club and having a solid season. However, backup goalie Stolarz has not played in a week and, because of the All-Star break too this will be just his 2nd start in 2 and a 1/2 weeks. The Sabres will take advantage on home ice. Buffalo is off a confidence-boosting 7-0 shutout win over LA Tuesday. Not only is that their 3rd win last 5 games, the Sabres scored at least 5 goals in all 3 wins. Amazingly the Sabres have allowed just 1.8 goals last 10 games. Great value on another NHL upset here on the Thursday card. BUFFALO +135 |
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02-15-24 | Wichita State v. East Carolina OVER 138.5 | Top | 55-68 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
Rotation #735 CBB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in East Carolina Pirates vs Wichita State Shockers @ 7 ET - These teams last met in Wichita State and it was a 54-52 Pirates win. The total opened up on this one at 137 but is ticking up to the 138.5 range even though their recent meeting totaled 106 points? Exactly! Someone knows something and we are going to cash in on that too. For one thing the teams hit a combined 8 three pointers in that game and East Carolina had a horrible shooting night overall. The Pirates had 68 shots from the field but managed only 54 points. They will be even stronger in terms of creating scoring chances on their home floor but this time they cash more of them in too. At the same time, the Shockers are out for revenge and they have averaged 75 ppg, not including OT, in their other 8 games since mid-January. In other words, that game against EC was an outlier. Also, the Pirates are generally not a high-scoring team but they are off an 84-72 win on the road and carry momentum home here plus the Shockers have not been known for defense this season for sure. OVER in East Carolina |
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02-15-24 | Qarabag FK v. Sporting Braga OVER 2.5 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
Rotation #224421: Europa League | Knockout Round Playoffs | 1st Leg Thursday OVER 2.5 -140 in Sporting Braga vs Qarabag @ 3 ET - Of course Sporting Braga favored by 1.5 goals on the goal line with good reason here! But I do like the fact this Qarabag club is no pushover. Note that Qarabag have scored at least 1 goal in 4 of last 5 Europa League matches including 2 apiece in each of last two. However, they also have conceded an average of 2 goals in the most recent 4 of those matches! Braga comes into this one angry off a 5-0 loss to Sporting Lisbon in Portugal Primeira Liga action so you known they will bring it here in this match! Braga had scored 10 goals in their 7 most recent matches prior to that. Against inferior competition like a club from the Azerbaijan Premier League, Braga can certainly double that average here. That is why even a 3-0 final would not shock me here but I look for a 3-1 type match. We'll see goals here and I fully anticipate at least a 2-1 final in this given all of the above. OVER 2.5 -140 in Sporting Braga |
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02-15-24 | Toulouse v. Benfica OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
Rotation #224425: Europa League | Knockout Round Playoffs | 1st Leg Thursday OVER 2.5 -130 in Benfica vs Toulouse @ 3 ET - Benfica fired up off a 2-2 draw in Portuguese Primeira Liga action so I fully anticipate them being relentless in this match! They have scored 28 goals in their last 9 matches! As for Toulouse, 7 of their last 11 matches across all competitions have totaled at least 3 goals. Toulouse plays in French Ligue 1 and has scored an average of 2 goals in their last 6 matches across all competitions. This should be a very competitive affair but of course Benfica is favored to win with good reason but I just can not see either club failing to score given the way things are going for both clubs of late. We'll see goals here and I fully anticipate at least a 2-1 final in this given all of the above. OVER 2.5 -130 in Benfica |
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02-15-24 | Bodo / Glimt v. Ajax Amsterdam OVER 3.25 | Top | 2-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
Rotation #236029: Europa Conference League | Knockout Round Playoffs | 1st Leg Thursday OVER 3 -120 in Ajax Amsterdam vs Bodo/Glimt @ 3 ET - Normally one of the top Dutch clubs, Ajax still is scoring goals like crazy but also struggling to stop the opposition. Even with the defensive struggles they are big favorites here with good reason as they take on a weaker Norwegian foe that has only been playing in club friendlies recently due to the timing of their seasons in Norway. That said Bodo/Glimt will be exposed defensively here but I also expect them to have success in the offensive end against a club that has conceded at least 1 goal in 12 straight matches! Given that streak as well as the scoring prowess of Ajax, it is no wonder why their last 14 matches have averaged 4.5 goals! We only need 4 to be a winner here and even 3 gives us a push - depending on when and where you played it - and that is why there is a lot of value here in what I expect to be a very wide-open affair. Most of my math modeling is pointing toward a 3-2 final in this one! Note that 7 of L8 Ajax matches have totaled at least 4 goals so I am happy to test this 88% trend here! OVER 3 -120 in Ajax Amsterdam |
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02-15-24 | Sporting Lisbon v. Young Boys Bern OVER 2.5 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 10 m | Show |
Rotation #224409: Europa League | Knockout Round Playoffs | 1st Leg Thursday OVER 2.5 -140 in Young Boys vs Sporting Lisbon @ 12:45 ET - Of course Sporting Lisbon favored on the road with good reason here! But I do like the fact this high-scoring Young Boys club is on their home pitch. Note that Young Boys have scored at least 1 goal in 8 straight home matches and averaged 2.5 goals in that 8-match stretch. As for Sporting Lisbon, they have scored at least 1 goal in an incredible 30 straight matches and averaged scoring 2.9 goals during this stretch. We'll see goals here and I fully anticipate at least a 2-1 final in this given all of the above. OVER 2.5 -140 in Young Boys |
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02-14-24 | Wild v. Coyotes OVER 6 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
OVER 6 in Arizona Coyotes vs Minnesota Wild @ 9:37 ET - Arizona goalie Connor Ingram is struggling badly but the Coyotes are back on home ice where they do play well. So I look for Arizona to be strong on home ice as per usual but I expect the recent goal-tending struggles to continue as well. That spells over in this one! Arizona has seen 5 of last 7 games total at least 7 goals. As for Minnesota, they have won 7 of 10 games. The Wild have scored an average of 4 goals per game during this run. Also 7 of last 10 Coyotes home games have totaled at least 6 goals and all but one of those that did were able to make it to the 7-goal mark. This one will too as I love the way the Coyotes play at home but their goalie situation is not good right now! OVER 6 in Arizona |
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02-14-24 | Iowa +5.5 v. Maryland | Top | 66-78 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
Rotation #697 CBB Wednesday Iowa Hawkeyes (+) @ Maryland Terrapins @ 8:30 ET - This line up to a 5.5 as of about 8 hours before tipoff and I feel we have excellent value with this high-scoring Hawkeyes team coming off a huge win. Iowa was WAY DOWN against Minnesota but came all the way back late for the 5-point win. Yes that was at home but the Hawkeyes rougher road record has a lot to do with facing some really tough road games this season. Maryland is solid but they are not on par with a number of teams that Iowa has faced on the road already this season. Also, the Terrapins have lost 3 straight and 7 of 11 and they only have 3 home wins over Big Ten teams this season. One of those was against a Penn State team that is now 12-12 this season and another one was against a Michigan team that is 3-11 in Big Ten action this season and is at the bottom of the standings. The Terrapins won't be easy but I truly feel the Hawkeyes have a great shot at the outright upset in this one. The Terps have averaged only 56 points scored in regulation time of their last 3 games. They also enter this game off a really tough double-OT loss while the Hawkeyes enter this one on a much more positive note after their amazing come from behind win over Minnesota. Unlike the struggling Terps, the Hawkeyes have been scoring just fine in recent games and they are averaging 84 ppg this season and are the much better shooting team in comparison with Maryland. Grab the points here but we likely will not even need them! IOWA (+) |
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02-14-24 | Sharks v. Jets -1.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -155 | 5 h 27 m | Show |
Winnipeg -1.5 -155 vs San Jose Sharks @ 7:37 ET - Yes this line is pricey but the Sharks have not played a game in two weeks. They are in trouble here against a Jets teams hungry for home ice win and that will likely have Hellebuyck between the pipes for this one. Winnipeg has had a rough stretch but they truly have deserved better results than they have received. The payoff is coming and, unlike the Sharks, the Jets have played 3 games already since the all-star break. San Jose has had trouble scoring goals all season while the Jets have had struggles in that department recently but can have a breakout game on home ice and facing a team that is going to have a lot of rust. WINNIPEG -1.5 -155 |
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02-14-24 | Heat v. 76ers -3 | Top | 109-104 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
NBA Wednesday Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Miami Heat @ 7 ET - Sixers out for revenge here from a 4-point loss at Miami earlier this season. Also, the last time these teams met in Philly, the Heat crushed them by nearly 30 points! The Sixers have a great shot at avenging both these defeats right here right now. The Heat are hurting with a couple of injuries plus Jimmy Butler is out on personal leave. To make this situation even more perfect, the short-handed Heat played last night at Milwaukee. Not only that, they smashed the Bucks! They did it by shooting a ridiculous high-percentage from 3-point land in that one. On a B2B situation and also playing with a shorter bench than usual because of missing 3 players for this one, the Heat will struggle with shooting here and likely also fade as the game goes on. Conversely, the Sixers - though without Embiid and Harris - at least are well-rested here. Also, they will have Kyle Lowry on the floor for this one and the veteran is making his home-coming in Philly and played his college ball at Villanova. Don't be surprised if he plays well in what will be an emotional homecoming game for the veteran. The Sixers have been on a home losing streak but they are getting adjusted now with Payne and Hield already becoming solid contributors and Council has been playing well as a role player. Oubre coming off another solid game and Maxey is an All-Star and this Sixers team now won B2B games including beating a tough Cavaliers team at Cleveland. Now it is time to get the home winning going again and they catch the Heat at the perfect time to get a big home win before the All-Star break. Note that Miami is off a win but had lost 9 of 13 games heading into that one. Yes, the 76ers had struggled recently without Embiid but they are starting to figure things out and have the situational edges in this one plus home court. This line is in the 3.5 range as of early game day morning and this is a bargain number! Lay it! PHILADELPHIA (-) |
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02-14-24 | Bayern Munich v. Lazio OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -113 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
Rotation #224209: Champions League | Round of 16 | 1st Leg: Wednesday OVER 2.5 -120 in Lazio vs Bayern Munich @ 3 ET - The last two meetings between these clubs each totaled at least 3 goals and averaged 4 goals apiece. 3 of last 4 Lazio matches across all competitions have totaled at least 3 goals. Each of Bayern Munich's last 3 matches have totaled at least 3 goals and these 3 matches have averaged 4 goals apiece. Lazio was shutout in their most recent match as a host so you know they will bring a strong attacking effort to this match but Bayern Munich are loaded with attacking options and are favored on the road here for a reason. Look for a 2-1 type final here...at least! OVER 2.5 -120 in Lazio |
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02-14-24 | Real Sociedad v. Paris Saint-Germain -0.5 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
Rotation #224214: Champions League | Round of 16 | 1st Leg: Wednesday Paris-St Germain Goal Line -0.5 -145 vs Real Sociedad @ 3 ET - PSG top scorer Kylian Mbappe is expected back for this match and the home side is going to have too much firepower for a Real Sociedad club that is struggling to score goals. Certainly Real Sociedad is a strong club but PSG knows they need to pressure them on their attack and that is their gameplan going into this one. PSG has actually scored 30 goals last 9 matches! Even if you take out the one outlier (9-goal win) from that sample size, you are still talking about a club averaging nearly 3 goals per match their last 8 as PSG totaled 22 goals in the other 8 matches! This team is so strong on the attack! Certainly Real Sociedad is impressive defensively but Paris-St Germain is going to force them to be more aggressive here and that will take them out of their comfort zone. The hosts are a solid favorite here for a reason and I have no hesitation in backing them. While they have been scoring goals extremely well, Real Sociedad has amazingly scored only 8 goals in their last 13 matches across all competitions! Lay it! Paris-St Germain Goal Line -0.5 -145 |
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02-14-24 | Fiorentina v. Bologna OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
Rotation #201321: Italian Serie A -Wednesday OVER 2.5 +125 in Bologna vs Fiorentina @ 1 ET - Each of the last 3 meetings between these clubs in Serie A action totaled 3 goals! Bologna is averaging 2 goals scored per match when at home this season. Fiorentina averages a solid 1.3 goals apiece in road matches this season. 4 straight Bologna matches in Serie A action have totaled at least 3 goals. 3 of last 4 Fiorentina matches in Serie A action have totaled at least 4 goals! The visitors do have some lower-scoring results on the season but their recent trending has been over. Bologna also scoring like crazy and a rare exception was when these teams bet in the Coppa Italia and it was a scoreless draw decided on penalty kicks. Of course a match like this in league action plays out to a much different style and we have excellent line value with big plus money on the over in this one. OVER 2.5 +125 in Bologna |
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02-14-24 | Pardubice v. Karvina OVER 2.5 | Top | 3-0 | Win | 107 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
Rotation #204837: Czech Fortuna:Liga -Wednesday OVER 2.5 +100 in Karvina vs Pardubice @ 11 AM ET - The top six leagues in Europe are English Premier League, German Bundesliga, Spanish La Liga, French Ligue 1, Italian Serie A and Portugal Primeira Liga. The 2nd grouping of leagues after the top six includes the Czech First League and so this is high-quality football and I have found a match where we are getting some solid line value Wednesday. Winter League matches and club friendlies helped Pardubice get their goal-scoring ways going again. They have won 5 straight matches, including most recent in Czech First League action as the league resumed last week, and they have scored an average of 2.8 goals in these 5 matches! Now they visit Karvina and the hosts enter this one hungry to bounce back off a 3-0 home loss in their prior match when they faced the top club in the League, Sparta Praha. Prior to this shutout defeat they had gotten their offensive game going in club friendlies as they averaged scoring 3 goals their last 5 matches. Now they go from playing one of the league's best to one of the lower-tier clubs so look for them to bounce back from the shutout loss with some goals here. This one gets to at least 2-1. Karvina home matches are averaging 3 goals this season and Pardubice road matches are also averaging 3 goals apiece this season. OVER 2.5 +100 in Karvina |
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02-13-24 | Seattle Kraken v. Islanders -154 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -154 | 6 h 30 m | Show |
NHL Tuesday New York Islanders Money Line -155 vs Seattle Kraken @ 7:37 ET - This line is a little pricey but this is a great situation that favors the hosts. Seattle is in a B2B spot and they are expected to start Philipp Grubauer because of this. He was on long-term injured reserve so do not expect him to just come out and dominate here. Grubauer will be rusty and he was already struggling as it was. Grubauer has lost 10 of 15 decisions and has a 3.25 GAA. Also, this Kraken team is falling apart overall. Seattle has lost 8 of 10 games and scored just 1.4 goals in those 8 losses! The Islanders have won 2 of 3 games since the All-Star break and with Patrick Roy as the new head coach, Ilya Sorokin has responded well. Varlamov has struggled but Sorokin is currently on a 3-1 run that has seen him allow only 9 goals in these 4 starts. Facing a Seattle team in a B2B and also struggling to score goals, Sorokin and the Isles can take full advantage. The Islanders have not only won 2 of 3 but, unlike the Kraken they are scoring decently. New York has scored 11 goals last 3 games and at least - unlike Seattle - averaged a decent 3 goals per game last 8 games. The Isles, showing signs of life under Roy, are worth the price here. NEW YORK ISLANDERS -155 |
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02-13-24 | Thunder -3 v. Magic | Top | 127-113 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
NBA Tuesday Oklahoma City Thunder (-) @ Orlando Magic @ 7:30 ET - Oklahoma City is laying about 3 points in this one as of 13 hours before tipoff. Overall, as you can tell by the records too, the Thunder are the stronger team. However, the Magic do have the home court edge here. However, what I really like about this play is the fact Orlando has another game on deck against a conference foe, the Knicks tomorrow. Conversely, for the Thunder it is their final game before the break. OKC wants to go into the break with another win! In fact, lets talk about the "another win" theory as it relates to both teams here. The Magic enter this game on a 2-game winning streak but, other than the surprising 9-game winning streak Orlando had earlier this season, they have only had one other 3-game winning streak this season! When the Magic enter a game on exactly a 2-game winning streak they have failed to stretch it 3 games 5 of the 7 times this season! Make that 6 of 8 after this one! The Thunder enter this one off a single win and there has been only one time this entire season they have had just a single standalone win and that was way back in October. In other words, the odds based on season-long trending here certainly favor a Thunder win! Orlando has lost 3 of last 5 games at home against team with a winning record. they are not unbeatable here against quality opposition by any stretch of the imagination. Also, Orlando is just 10-10 SU in non-conference action while the Thunder are 14-4 SU in non-conf action! The better team in the better situation and on the road so the number of points is manageable. Great spot here to take advantage. Lay it! OKLAHOMA CITY (-) |
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02-13-24 | Blue Jackets v. Senators OVER 7 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
NHL Tuesday OVER 7 in Ottawa vs Columbus @ 7 ET - Big total but deservedly so. The Blue Jackets are starting Daniil Tarasov and the Senators are starting Anton Forsberg. Tarasov had a 3.91 GAA last season and has not been much better with a 3.79 GAA this season! These are ugly numbers and he has not played since 28 January. Also, Forsberg has been out with a groin injury and has not played in 5 weeks and plus has a 3.35 GAA this season. Both these goalies will be rusty and the Blue Jackets, prior to a rare 1-0 win in most recent road game, had allowed 4 goals per game over their 5 prior road games. The Senators have seen 9 of last 13 games total at least 7 goals and they are on a 3-game wining streak and have scored an average of 4 goals during this win streak. OVER 7 in Ottawa |
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02-13-24 | Pittsburgh +6.5 v. Virginia | Top | 74-63 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
CBB Tuesday Pittsburgh Panthers (+) @ Virginia Cavaliers @ 7 ET - The current line as of about 11 hours before game time for this one is in the 6.5 range which means it is go time with this one! The Cavaliers are red hot but the Panthers have been an anomaly this season as they actually have been stronger on the road than at home. Overall, Pittsburgh is playing very well in ACC action of late with 5 wins last 6 games and the lone loss was by 4 points. In terms of games played away from home, Pitt is on a run of 6 wins last 8 games and those two losses away from home were by 8 points and 4 points. The Panthers rarely get blown out and, with a low total posted on this game, you can certainly project this to be a grinder likely decided by a slim margin. Of course the Cavaliers are known for defense but the Panthers do play well defensively and also have solid perimeter defense which is important against the Cavs. At the other end of the floor, the Panthers have some outside shooters that can help draw the Virginia defenders out and open things up a bit more inside. The Panthers match up well with the Cavs and, in fact, beat the Cavaliers last season. That makes this a revenge spot for Virginia. However, the Cavs just beat a Florida State team that was right behind them and now have Wake Forest, also right behind them, on deck. Could easily see the Cavs underestimating Pitt here and this Panthers team rebounds well, has some solid shooters and they play solid defense. This one goes down to the wire and just might end up in another upset which makes the points invaluable. PITTSBURGH (+) |
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02-13-24 | Manchester City -1.5 v. FC Copenhagen | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
Rotation #224205: Champions League | Round of 16 | 1st Leg: Tuesday Manchester City Goal Line -1.5 -125 @ FC Copenhagen @ 3 ET - Manchester City is healthy again and they will play their full top lineup in this one as they look to get the upper hand in this first leg in the Round of 16. The value in this one is on the goal line where we get a reasonable line on laying the 1.5 goals and looking for multi-goal victory for the travelers in this one. Note that the loss of Leragen due to suspension for this match is a big loss for Copenhagen. The last meeting here was in October of 2022 and ended in a scoreless draw. However, City had a red card at the 30' mark and still outplayed Copenhagen in that 0-0 final. Also, that was on the heels of a 5-0 win at City the prior week which showed the dominance that Manchester City is capable of when focused as they were in that first meeting. They will again be focused here and Copenhagen will prove to be no match. Copenhagen is having a disappointing run in Danish Superliga right now. The opposite is true of City as they are on a 10-match winning streak across all competitions and this includes 8 of those 10 victories coming by a multi-goal margin. This one will too! MANCHESTER CITY -1.5 -125 |
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02-13-24 | Real Madrid v. RB Leipzig OVER 3 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
Rotation #224201: Champions League | Round of 16 | 1st Leg: Tuesday OVER 3 +105 in RB Leipzig vs Real Madrid @ 3 ET - The last meeting here was a 3-2 win for RB Leipzig and I look for them to push strong on the attack here as Real Madrid dealing with injuries to defense and in goal. However, Real Madrid certainly more than capable on the attack as well and they seem to have rallied around the injury issues to work even harder. They continue to score goals and win matches. Real Madrid has scored an average of 3 goals last 9 matches across all competitions. Certainly there is nothing average about that! As for RB Leipzig they have a knack for allowing too many goals at home in Champions League action and have had struggles in Bundesliga action since returning from the break. However, they still have scored at least 2 goals in 4 straight matches overall. Trouble is RB Leipzig also allowed 2.5 goals match over this same stretch. Don't be surprised when this turns into a goal-fest Tuesday! OVER 3 +105 in RB Leipzig |
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02-13-24 | FC Viktoria Plzen v. Banik Ostrava OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -118 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
Rotation #204833: Czech Fortuna:Liga - Tuesday OVER 2.5 -115 in Banik Ostrava vs Viktoria Plzen @ Noon ET - The top leagues in Europe are English Premier League, German Bundesliga, Spanish La Liga, French Ligue 1, Italian Serie A and Portugal Primeira Liga. Not far behind though is the Czech First League and so this is high-quality football and I have found a match where we are getting some solid line value Tuesday. Note that Banik has either scored or allowed 3 goals in 7 of last 9 meetings! That means even if a clean sheet is involved here we would still when this play if Banik continues this 78% trend that has been going for two months now. The goals are flying in Banik matches. Viktoria Plzen has scored 3 goals in each of last 4 road matches! On the season, Viktoria Plzen has scored nearly 2 and 1/2 goals per match and their average match is 4 goals and there is nothing average about that! The goals fly again in this one! OVER 2.5 -115 in Banik Ostrava |
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02-13-24 | Vizela v. Gil Vicente OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 30 m | Show |
Rotation #206629: Portugese Primeira Liga: Tuesday OVER 2.5 -105 in Gil Vicente vs Vizela @ 10:30 AM ET - Both clubs looking to bounce back off tough high-scoring losses in Taca de Portugal action. That means look for big bounce back here as both clubs will be aggressive to get back on track in this Primeira Liga encounter. Gil Vicente has allowed 3 goals in each of last two matches overall but is scoring an average of 2.2 goals in their 10 home matches this season in league action. Vizela has allowed 17 goals in last 5 matches across all competitions for an average of 3.4 goals per match. 4 of last 5 Vizela matches across all competitions have totaled at least 3 goals and I see that high-scoring trend continuing here. OVER 2.5 -105 in Gil Vicente |