Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-16-21 | Chelsea v. Brentford OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 5 m | Show |
Total of the Week - 10* OVER 2.5 in Brentford - Chelsea is a machine right now and sitting at the top of table. Chelsea is scoring an average of 2 goals per match. I know Brentford was known for lower-scoring matches earlier in the season but look at what they have been doing of late. Brentford, across all competitions, has scored 2 or more goals in 4 straight! In fact, thanks to a 7-0 win outside the league during this 4 match stretch (other 3 were league games), Brentford has scored an average of 3.5 goals in last 4 matches! Chelsea is 3-1 last 4 matches in league action and scored 3 goals in each of the 3 victories! I do not see either team being held off the scoresheet here and, as a result, am expecting nothing less than 2-1 final here as you know Brentford will be gunning hard for the upset but the scoring talent of these visitors can not be underestimated. It is why the travelers are favored by 1 goal on the spread (goal line) for this match. 10* OVER 2.5 in Brentford |
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10-15-21 | California v. Oregon -13.5 | Top | 17-24 | Loss | -106 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #122 Friday 10* Top Play Oregon Ducks -13.5 vs California Golden Bears @ 10:30 ET - The Ducks off an OT loss preceding their bye week. Oregon will bounce back strong at home here. They are vastly superior to this Golden Bears team. Also, the Ducks lost at California last season so this is a revenge game for Oregon. The Golden Bears are off a 21-6 loss two weeks ago (also off a bye like the Ducks are) and Cal just does not have the offense to keep up in this one. The Golden Bears only scored well in 1 of their 4 games against FBS opponents this season. In the other 3 games California averaged only 16 points per game. Oregon is averaging 40 points a game in their home games this season and will pull away to win this one by a big margin as they are angry off a loss and have had extra time to think about the defeat too. This will be an angry Ducks team in front of their home fans on a Friday night and this is surely to be domination as a result against a Cal team that has only 1 win this season and it was against an FCS school. 10* OREGON -13.5 |
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10-15-21 | Winnipeg v. Edmonton Elks +12 | Top | 26-16 | Win | 100 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
West Div Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #672 Friday 10* Top Play Edmonton Elks +12 vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 9 ET - If you look at this game on paper, the Elks have no chance. But, as the long-time saying goes, the games are not played on paper! The fact is that Edmonton is a huge home dog here and offering substantial value as I expect them to step up big after last week's embarrassing loss at Winnipeg. The Elks did not just lose to the Blue Bombers last week, they got destroyed. Now, coming back home and with an immediate shot at revenge, Edmonton can get some redemption here. Of course this does not mean they win the game outright, but I do expect them to be ultra competitive here and lose this game by no more than a single score margin. Note that Winnipeg has been rolling teams but this looks like a tough spot as they won big at Edmonton a few weeks ago as well and have BC on deck. This is the final meeting between these teams this season and the Elks have a bye on deck and will go all out here with a week of rest on deck. They have had enough of being embarrassed by the Blue Bombers and will put up a strong fight in this one. I know the Elks have an ugly record this season but they are better than their record shows and will prove to be a tough home dog to put away in this spot. 10* EDMONTON |
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10-15-21 | Red Sox v. Astros OVER 8 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
ACTION on pitchers. Total of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #901 Friday 10* Top Play OVER 8 runs in Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox @ 8:07 ET - Would recommend playing this at a sports book that gives you action on totals wagers. I just do not care who the starting pitchers are in this one. This match-up features two very hot lineups. Boston has scored 6.3 runs per game last 7 games. Houston has scored 7.7 runs per game last 7 games. The posted total on this game is 8 runs and we are talking about American League baseball here so there are designated hitters too instead of the pitchers having to bat. It is simply a high value spot here no matter who the starting pitchers are but I will mention that it is expected to be Chris Sale for Boston and Framber Valdez for Houston. Sale has been enduring a horrible stretch and Valdez has allowed 4 earned runs in each of his last two starts. 10* OVER 8 runs in Houston |
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10-14-21 | Dodgers -105 v. Giants | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
NOTE: As always I prefer action with my plays in MLB and this one was no exception. Just mentioning that now Knebel is expected to start for Dodgers rather than Urias but note that Knebel is only being used as an opener and Urias is expected to get the bulk of the work. My bet stands on the Dodgers regardless of the pitching match-up in this one. ORIGINAL write-up: TBS Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #971 Thursday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Dodgers Money Line -105 vs San Francisco Giants @ 9:07 ET - The Giants are a great team. But so too are the Dodgers. As long-time followers know, I am a contrarian. So the fact that San Francisco is 13-0 in Logan Webb's home starts and yet this line is a pick'em speaks volumes to me. The Dodgers are the play. Webb has been rock solid, particularly at home, but Julio Urias has also been fantastic. So lets talk about what these two lineups have been doing as that is likely to be the key in this one. Los Angeles has scored 7 or more runs in 7 of last 10 games. San Francisco has been held to 3 or less runs in 6 of last 9 games. Factoring that in plus the huge post-season experience edge that LA has, I just do not see the Dodgers being denied in this one and look for them to advance to the NLCS with a convincing win here. 10* LOS ANGELES DODGERS -105 |
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10-14-21 | Bucs v. Eagles +7 | Top | 28-22 | Win | 100 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #110 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles +7 vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 8:20 ET - The Eagles will be flying sky high in terms of emotions as they get a home game against the defending champion Buccaneers. Also, their defense rates higher than the Bucs in terms of overall stats as well as pressuring the QB. Philadelphia will generate some pressure against Tom Brady in this one and Tampa Bay's offense has not been as good on the road this season as they have been at home. Look for the Eagles to build off the momentum of last week's come from behind win at Carolina. That may not lead to an outright upset win but Philly should at least get the cover. TB is 0-2 ATS on the road this season and the Eagles will take advantage of what is their only home game in a 4-week span. An outright upset would not be a total surprise but definitely there is value with the points in this one. 10* PHILADELPHIA +7 |
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10-14-21 | Georgia Southern v. South Alabama -3 | Top | 14-41 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
ESPNU Annihilation - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #112 Thursday 10* Top Play South Alabama Jaguars -3 vs Georgia Southern Eagles @ 7:30 ET - I know the Eagles have played the tougher schedule. But I also feel strongly that the Jaguars are in an ideal bounce back spot and will respond. Why is South Alabama favored over a Georgia Southern team that has won 7 straight meetings with them? Exactly! Don't let the line fool you. The Jags are going to get it done finally and put an end to that losing streak versus the Eagles. Georgia Southern is allowing 487 yards per game while South Alabama is allowing only 311 yards per game. After blowing their game against Texas State last week and losing in 4 overtimes, I expect the Jaguars to come up big this week and respond huge. South Alabama is off back to back losses by 2 points each and will get back to winning ways here. The Eagles have lost 4 of last 5 games and their pass defense is a weakness and the strength of the Jaguars offense is the passing attack. This will help key this home win so lay the short number. 10* SOUTH ALABAMA -3 |
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10-14-21 | Islanders +115 v. Hurricanes | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NHL Rotation #67 Thursday 10* Top Play New York Islanders Money Line +115 @ Carolina Hurricanes @ 7:08 ET - The Hurricanes deserve respect and I certainly do respect this team. However, getting the Islanders at plus money against anyone is a huge value. Also, their team has a little less turnover than the Hurricanes did coming into this season. I know Frederik Andersen performed well in goal for the Maple Leafs last season but historically he has been a bit inconsistent. Yes, the Islanders are without #1 goalie Semyon Varlamov right now but Ilya Sorokin is a rock solid #2 netminder for them and, unlike Andersen, he is use to the teammates in front of him too. Keep in mind, there could be a bit of an adjustment period early on for Andersen in Carolina. The Hurricanes are a solid team but I love the stingy Islanders on the road getting plus money. The defensive-minded hockey club frustrates their opponents and wears them down and I expect that to be the case again in this season opener for these two clubs. 10* NEW YORK ISLANDERS +115 |
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10-13-21 | Rangers +115 v. Capitals | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NHL Rotation #51 Wednesday 10* Top Play New York Rangers Money Line +115 @ Washington Capitals @ 7:35 ET - The Rangers finished 5th in the divisional standings last year while the Capitals were 2nd in the same division. That is why it might seem surprising to see Washington as such a slight home favorite here in this season opener. However, this Capitals team is getting a little long in the tooth and the Rangers, on the other hand, are trending the right direction. Also, lets not forget the Tom Wilson / Artemi Panarin incident that happened late last season. That is part of the reason the Rangers got Ryan Reaves as an enforcer this season. Reaves is listed as probable for tonight's game. Also, Ryan Strome is probable for the Rangers as well. New York will be ready to go and get some revenge against this Capitals team. Washington's injury news is not as good either. Nicklas Backstrom is currently out and Alex Ovechkin is questionable with a lower body injury. This one sets up well for the road team to get it done. Like I said with my intro, this game is priced very low for a reason so grab that small dog on the road and look for them notch the mild upset in this one. 10* NEW YORK RANGERS +115 |
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10-12-21 | Seattle Kraken +1.5 v. Golden Knights | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NHL 10* Top Play Seattle Kraken +1.5 goals -110 @ Vegas Golden Knights @ 10:15 ET - Both teams dealing with a combination of injury/covid protocol issues coming into this regular season opener. If anything that favors Seattle as Vegas just does not have all their usual top end talent for this one. That said, I like the fact the the Kraken are very strong on the blue line and in net. With having Grubauer and Driedger as their goalies and strong defense in front of them (even with Oleksiak out for this one), I expect Seattle to be very stingy in terms of goals allowed. At the other end of the ice it will be interesting to see how the outspoken netminder, Robin Lehner, performs now that Marc Andre Fleury is gone and is a Blackhawk now. Could this actually backfire as Lehner no longer is worrying about Fleury? Was Fleury helping to push him to be even better? Look for this to be a tight low-scoring game and that means the ability to get the +1.5 goals at a pick'em price is absolutely a bargain here. The Kraken are highly motivated and I certainly do not see them laying an egg in their first shot on the ice with entirety of the NHL world watching them in the 2nd game of tonight's ESPN double header. 10* SEATTLE +1.5 goals -110 |
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10-12-21 | Appalachian State v. UL-Lafayette +5 | Top | 13-41 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
Sun Belt Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #108 Tuesday 10* Top Play UL-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns +5 vs Appalachian State Mountaineers @ 7:30 ET - Coastal Carolina is undefeated on the season and ranked #15 in the nation. What does that have to do with this play? Well, Appalachian State plays in the same division of the Sun Belt Conference along with the Chanticleers and they are hosting them next week. It is hard to imagine the Mountaineers overlooking a 4-1 UL Lafayette team but, if there was a spot for that to be the case, this is it! I like the fact that the Ragin' Cajuns lone loss came against a Texas team that showed again on Saturday (versus Oklahoma) that they have an incredible offense. Also, ULL played UT much tougher than the final score reflected. Appalachian State is a very good football team in the Sun Belt but so are the Ragin's Cajuns and this line has gone from a 3 to a 5 and is offering exceptional home dog value! ULL won last year's meeting and the year before they lost but outgained App State by nearly 100 yards! The last time the Cajuns hosted the Mountaineers they fell short and now they get some payback for that home loss Tuesday. In fact, prior to winning the match-up in December, ULL had lost 8 straight meetings with Appalachian State. Suffice to say some home payback is still on order! As a dog, the Ragin Cajuns have only lost the money 4 times the last 14 games when getting points! 10* UL-LAFAYETTE +5 |
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10-12-21 | Astros +105 v. White Sox | Top | 10-1 | Win | 105 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
NOTE: ACTION on pitchers as mentioned yesterday and this game was rained out yesterday and now is expected to be Lance McCullers rather that Jose Urquidy going at 2:07 ET Tuesday. McCullers already shut down the White Sox once in this series and can do it again here but, as mentioned yesterday, I do not care who the starting pitchers are and this is more about a solid spot to grab a strong team off a loss. ORIGINAL write-up: Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #953 Monday 10* Top Play Houston Astros Money Line +115 @ Chicago White Sox @ 3:37 ET - Action on the pitchers because this play is all about the team edges. I know the White Sox Rodon has great numbers and would rate higher than Urquidy in terms of most analytics relating to starting pitching. However, the Astros are the much better team and I look for them to bounce back off the high-scoring loss yesterday. White Sox reliever Ryan Tepera not helping his team by implying that Houston, already punished for this in past, was again stealing signs in Games 1 and 2 of this series because those games were at Minute Maid Park. Watch the Astros pound the White Sox today to prove that notion false. Tepera can think whatever he wants but should have kept his mouth shut. The last thing you want to do is motivate your opponent right before another elimination game. This one is all Astros. 10* HOUSTON +115 |
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10-11-21 | Colts +7.5 v. Ravens | Top | 25-31 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #479 Monday 10* Top Play Indianapolis Colts (+) @ Baltimore Ravens @ 8:15 ET - The Ravens are a high-quality team for sure but the Colts are better than their record and I feel we have excellent line value here. Keep in mind Baltimore faced KC, LV, Detroit and Denver. The Ravens beat the Chiefs but KC is now 2-3 on the season and their defense has been poor. Baltimore lost to the Raiders in OT and Las Vegas also now off B2B losses and starting to disappoint. The Broncos are also 3-2 and padded their record with 3 wins against bad teams to start the season. As for the Lions, though they fight hard they are still 0-5 SU on the season. The points is that I am certainly not convinced that the Ravens should be a 7.5 point favorite over this solid Colts team. Baltimore has 2 wins that came by a total margin of just 3 points. They could easily be 1-3 on the season! As for the Colts they have faced Rams and Titans teams that are a combined 7-3 on the season. Indianapolis off a win at Miami last week and statistically have the better defense in comparison with the Ravens. That said, I look for the Colts to have a great shot at the outright upset here and, if they do fall short, I certainly expect it to be by just a 1-score margin. 10* INDIANAPOLIS +7.5 |
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10-11-21 | Rays +102 v. Red Sox | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #955 Monday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays Money Line +102 @ Boston Red Sox @ 7:07 ET - ACTION on pitchers. The Rays used a lot of bullpen arms last night. I am well aware of that. They do not even know who they will use as the opener in this game. I do not care. Tampa Bay is the better team and I see them forcing a Game 5 by getting the key win in this one tonight. Keep in mind the Rays have the bullpen edge overall and yesterday the Red Sox got the best work on the mound from Eovaldi and Pivetta. Neither one of those guys will be available today and the other pitchers yesterday for Boston combined to allow 4 hits and walk 2 in 4 innings. Certainly decent numbers but not complete domination. The Rays are a perfect 7-0 the last 7 times they have entered a game off back to back losses. Prior to yesterday's win, the Red Sox had lost 3 of last 4 home games. The expected starter for Boston here is Eduardo Rodriguez. He struggled badly in Game 1 of this series and also in his most recent regular season start against the Rays last month he got hammered for 6 earned runs in less than 4 innings at Fenway Park. No matter who pitches here, I look for the Rays to get it done. 10* TAMPA BAY +102 |
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10-11-21 | Toronto v. Hamilton -4.5 | Top | 24-23 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #688 Monday 10* Top Play Hamilton Tiger-Cats -4.5 vs Toronto Argonauts @ 4 ET - Toronto is coming off a big win versus Ottawa on Wednesday but the Argonauts were fortunate. The Redblacks actually outgained them by 153 yards but interceptions where the difference in the game. That said, this is now a battle for first place at the top of the division and the team trailing, Hamilton, is the better team and is coming off a loss and has a rest edge here. Last week the Tiger-Cats lost in OT to Montreal so this is a great spot to back them. Toronto is just 1-3 on the road this season and the Ti-Cats can pull equal with them in the standings by notching a win in this one. Hamilton is allowing only 18 points per game this season while the Argos are allowing 23 points a game. Again, the home/road dichotomy for the Argonauts is another reason to look for the Tiger-Cats to bounce back big at home in this one. Hamilton's wins have been by an average margin of 13 points per game and that includes a big win over Toronto. Look for another dominating victory here. 10* HAMILTON -4.5 |
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10-10-21 | Astros v. White Sox OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-12 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #933 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros @ 8:07 ET - The Astros have won 4 straight games and the over is 4-1 in their last 5 games as Houston has scored at least 6 runs in all five games. That said, we are working with a generously low number here. Dylan Cease starts for the White Sox and he has a 9.00 ERA this season in starts against the Astros. Luis Garcia starts for Houston and he has a 4.24 ERA in road starts this season plus got rocked in his final start of the regular season even though that was at home. The White Sox have lost 3 straight games now but this was preceded by a 6-game winning streak in which they scored at least 5 runs in all six games. Look for the White Sox to bounce back at home where they are scoring much better of late than how they played in first two games of this series at Houston. However, Cease will not be able to slow down this hot Astros offense. The result? High-scoring slug-fest in this one. 10* OVER 8.5 in Chicago White Sox |
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10-10-21 | Giants +7 v. Cowboys | Top | 20-44 | Loss | -107 | 28 h 60 m | Show |
NFC East Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 10* Top Play New York Giants +7 @ Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET - The Cowboys are 4-0 ATS this season and, as a result, are over-rated right now. The Giants are known for playing them very tough and this is a real tough spot for Dallas to cover in my opinion. New York is only 1-3 this season SU but get at least a little confidence back as they are coming off a win plus their two games prior to that were each losses but only by a combined 4 points. If you look at the stats of these two teams they are not very different but the betting masses are not seeing that. What the betting masses are seeing is a Dallas team that is 4-0 both SU and ATS on the season and also a Giants team that was 0-3 SU prior to notching their first win of the season last week. What generally happens in NFL betting in cases like this is that facing the market perception is your best bet and that is absolutely what I am going to do here. I am grabbing the generous points being offered here for my top side play of the day. 10* NEW YORK GIANTS +7 |
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10-10-21 | Jets v. Falcons OVER 45 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 21 h 25 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 45 in Atlanta Falcons vs New York Jets @ 9:30 AM ET in London - Early start here with game played in London. Jets coming off first win so they have some momentum. That gives the New York offense some confidence. As for the Jets defense they have allowed 24 points or more 3 straight weeks! The Falcons have allowed an average of 32 points the last 3 games! Atlanta's offense has averaged 24 points last 3 weeks. With a low total posted on this game I feel strongly that we have a lot of value here. I know the numbers on offense are not that impressive for these teams but watch what they do in this game against sub-par defenses and in a special setting like this over in London. 10* OVER 45 in Atlanta (game played in London) |
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10-09-21 | Calgary +4.5 v. Saskatchewan | Top | 22-19 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #663 Saturday 10* Top Play Calgary Stampeders +4.5 @ Saskatchewan Roughriders @ 7 ET - I know the Riders outgained the Stamps last week but still lost the game. However, I am not taking the bait here on Saskatchewan. The Roughriders opened up as a 3.5 point favorite and are up to a 4.5 point favorite. Everyone seems to be liking the revenge factor here but this Stampeders team is better than their record shows and the Riders also have had trouble matching up with them. Look for the Calgary offensive line to again help key the victory as they win battles in the trenches. This is a battle of brothers in the coaching ranks and the Stamps hold a 3-0 edge in games in which they have squared off. Look for that to be 4-0 after today but I am grabbing the points also as added insurance in what could be a tight finish. 10* CALGARY +4.5 |
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10-09-21 | UTSA v. Western Kentucky -3 | Top | 52-46 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #394 Saturday 10* Top Play Western Kentucky Hilltoppers -3 vs UTSA Roadrunners @ 7 ET - I have been waiting for the right spot to fade UTSA and I believe we have that right here! Long-time followers know I am a contrarian and so it will not surprise you to see me making this bet. Western Kentucky is 1-3 this season while UTSA is 5-0 plus the Roadrunners have the much better numbers on defense and yet the Hilltoppers are favored. Looks funny does it not? Of course it does and you know that a situation like this is screaming "trap line" and I love the home team in this spot. UTSA has played the much weaker schedule and their luck runs out here. They had a dramatic come from behind victory at Memphis two weeks ago which was a game the Tigers gave away and had no business losing. Then last week the Runners barely got past a bad UNLV team. Now the Roadrunners are on the road and facing a Western Kentucky team that has played the tougher schedule and also is averaging over 500 yards of offense per game. The Hilltoppers defense is certainly not a strength but they will step up here at home in what is their first conference game of the season. On the other side of the field I just do not see UTSA as being able to get enough stops against the potent WKU offense. 10* WESTERN KENTUCKY -3 |
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10-09-21 | East Carolina v. Central Florida OVER 65 | Top | 16-20 | Loss | -111 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
AAC Total of the Year - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #321 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 65 in Central Florida Knights vs East Carolina Pirates @ 6 ET - Both of these teams have been trending over and this total has gone from the 70 range to the 65 range and I feel we have excellent line value here as a result. East Carolina's defense has been abysmal but their offense has been picking up steam. The Pirates have scored 42 points per game last 3 games. East Carolina has allowed only 29.6 points per game this season but this is deceiving and that is why we have line value here because the Pirates have allowed 478.4 yards per game. Look for Central Florida to take advantage of this porous defense and another edge we have here is in terms of pace of play. UCF is averaging 86 snaps per game on offense when at home this season. East Carolina is averaging 78 snaps per game when on the road this season. Central Florida is averaging 41 points per game this season. They are 10 point favorites here which puts this game at a 41-31 type final based on averages. That said, you can see why we have value here and also consider that the Knights have won the past two games by an average score of 46-28 which is nearly 10 points above the current total posted on this game. Of course UCF is without QB Gabriel but Keene can get the job done and will be even better after helping lead the way to 30 points on the road at Navy last week. Now he is at home with a road game under his belt. They also have junior Gatewood available after he transferred from Kentucky. Either way this dangerous UCF attack will have no problems with the porous Pirates defense but I do like what I have been seeing from the East Carolina offense and I expect this one to turn into a shootout. 10* OVER 65 in Central Florida |
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10-09-21 | Braves v. Brewers OVER 7 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #925 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 7 runs in Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves @ 5:07 ET - Yesterday both ALDS match-ups went over the total in their respective Game 2 spots after the Game 1 match-ups each stayed under the total. Do not be surprised if we see something similar with the NLDS match-ups today. However, the only one I am comfortable with playing on Saturday is the earlier match-up in Milwaukee. I know Max Fried has fantastic numbers to close out the season but look for the long layoff to lead to some rust here. That goes for Brandon Woodruff as well. Also, Woodruff allowed 7 hits in 4 innings in his final start of the regular season and allowed 8 hits in 5 and 1/3 innings in his only start against the Braves this season. Again, I know Fried had a very strong finish to the season but I like overs in spots like this as the home team has a pitcher likely to struggle a bit and yet their lineup, comfy at home, should do some damage. This line opened up at a 7.5 for a reason and the drop to a 7 has led to value in this spot. 10* OVER 7 in Milwaukee |
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10-08-21 | Edmonton Elks v. Winnipeg UNDER 48.5 | Top | 3-30 | Win | 100 | 15 h 0 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFL 10* Top Play UNDER 48.5 in Winnipeg vs Edmonton @ 8:30 ET - Edmonton's defense is not getting any respect here because of the ugly loss at Ottawa last week. However, the Elks have had a knack this season for allowing more points than they should have based on yardage allowed. This is shading some value toward the under in this one as a result as there should be a regression to the mean in that regard. Winnipeg is 7-1 this season and has been incredibly good on defense. In the 7 wins the Blue Bombers have allowed only 11 points per game. So if the odds makers are correct and Winnipeg wins this by 10 and has an "average" game for them in a victory (allowing around 11 points) that puts this game around 21-11. You can see why I feel we have some very solid line value here! This total, per the above as well as the simulation report, is simply too high. Also note that it did open up at 43.5 and has jumped to 48.5 and the odds makers likely had it in the better range with their original number and it will be the betting markets that are proven wrong in this one. 10* UNDER 48.5 in Winnipeg |
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10-08-21 | Red Sox v. Rays OVER 7.5 | Top | 14-6 | Win | 107 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #917 Friday 10* Top Play OVER 7.5 runs in Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:07 ET - The Rays scored 5 runs in yesterday's win. Though the Red Sox were shutout they did have 9 hits in the game. I am expecting Boston to bounce back at the plate today but also expect the Rays to fare well again too! This is regardless of the pitchers. I like playing overs from a "team standpoint" when a good hitting team like the Red Sox is coming off a loss. But lets talk about these pitchers as well. Chris Sale has faced the Rays twice recently and he is lucky the earned run damage was not worse as he did get hit hard. Overall he finished the season a bit "off" as he just was not on his game and had a 4.98 ERA his last 3 starts. As for Shane Baz, the rookie has impressed but this is still a new experience for him here as he pitches now in an MLB playoff setting. Baz has only been in the bigs for a few weeks now! I feel it catches up with him here in a huge playoff game against a tough Red Sox lineup coming off a shutout loss. At the same time though, he should get plenty of run support as Sale has allowed 16 hits in less than 10 innings spanning his two starts against the Rays this season and both were in the month of September too! That means Tampa Bay very familiar with his offerings. 10* OVER 7.5 runs in Tampa Bay |
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10-08-21 | Temple v. Cincinnati UNDER 54 | Top | 3-52 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #308 Friday 10* Top Play UNDER 54 in Cincinnati Bearcats vs Temple Owls @ 7 ET - Bearcats off the huge win at Notre Dame plus have Central Florida on deck. That makes this the ideal spot for a Cincinnati letdown. However, I just can't trust Temple to score much (if at all!) against this Bearcats defense but I do expect Cincinnati to pull away as this game goes on. But it is just not the type of setting where the Bearcats are likely to run up the score. They just want to grind out a win and rely on their ground attack to run clock and just simply take care of business in this game. That said, I don't see it getting out of the 40s and would not be surprised if it ended in the 30s! Cincinnati has allowed just 14.5 points per game and Temple had an embarrassing season opening loss but has allowed only 22.5 points per game since then. Each team enters this game having recorded unders in 2 of last 3 games. Also, their last meeting (2019) totaled only 28 points. The Owls have injury issues on offense that is starting to effect their depth on that side of the ball. Bearcats grind out a solid home win likely very close to the 4 TD spread on this game but I expect it the form of a 28-0, 35-7, 38-10 type game and all those work just fine for our purposes here! 10* UNDER 54 in Cincinnati |
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10-08-21 | White Sox +115 v. Astros | Top | 4-9 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 26 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #915 Friday 10* Top Play Chicago White Sox +115 @ Houston Astros @ 2:07 ET - I like the White Sox here no matter who pitches as I am expecting a big bounce back after they got drilled yesterday. However, lets talk about the expected starting pitchers here. Lucas Giolito went 7-3 with a 3.25 ERA on the road this season for the White Sox. Also, Chicago won each of his last 3 starts this season and he produced a fantastic 1.10 ERA in those 3 outings. Additionally, Giolito has pitched two complete game shutouts and allowed just 1 earned runs only only 7 hits while striking out 17 in his last 2 starts against Houston. The Astros start Framber Valdez here. He has been okay against the White Sox in two starts against them this season but did allow 3 homers in the 2 outings. Also, Valdez has allowed 4 earned runs in each of his last two starts at home and those outings were only 5 innings each as well. Game One of this series notwithstanding, the White Sox were 5-0 last 5 times they were off a loss in which they allowed 5 or more runs. I am expecting a big bounce back here after they got drilled 6-1 yesterday. 10* Chicago White Sox +115 |
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10-07-21 | Rams v. Seahawks UNDER 54.5 | Top | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 28 h 55 m | Show |
Thursday Total - Rickenbach NFL Thursday 10* Top Play UNDER 54.5 in Seattle Seahawks vs Los Angeles Rams @ 8:20 ET - I know the Seahawks defensive numbers have not impressed but they have played 3 of their 4 games on the road. Generally speaking Seattle tends to play better defense at home. That was not the case in their lone home game when this season when they lost to the Titans 33 to 30. That said, I expect them to make up for that poor game with a much better effort here on defense. The Rams are off an ugly loss to Arizona. The over is an uncharacteristic 4-0 in LA games this season. I don't see that continuing in this big rivalry game but we get a big total to work with here of 54.5 which is very significant. Consider that none of the last 4 meetings have topped 50 points and they have averaged 42 points. We have good cushion to work with on this total in my opinion and I expect both defenses to step up big here in this one. 10* UNDER 54.5 in Seattle |
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10-07-21 | Houston v. Tulane OVER 59.5 | Top | 40-22 | Win | 100 | 26 h 54 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #303 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 59.5 in Tulane Green Wave vs Houston Cougars @ 7:30 ET - The Green Wave have a solid offense but can't stop teams on the other end of the field. The Cougars look like they have a fantastic defense but really they have been helped by facing a super weak schedule. Houston allowed 38 in week one but has since faced a lot of weaker foes and it is overestimating their defense as a result. The Cougars D is not nearly as strong as their numbers would suggest. Another key here is the Tulane offense averaging more yardage than Houston offense so don't be surprised when the Green Wave score plenty here but, again, that Tulane defense is a major problem and they are allowing nearly 500 yards per game. The Cougars have gone over the total in each of their two true road games. The Green Wave are 4-1 to the over this season. Cougars scored 44 or more in 3 of last 4 games. Tulane has scored 35 per game this season. The fact this total opened up in nearly the mid-60s and has dropped into the 50s is an added value as well. Look for a shootout. 10* OVER 59.5 in Tulane |
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10-06-21 | Cardinals v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
Run Line Rout - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #940 Wednesday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 runs -100 vs St Louis Cardinals @ 8:10 ET - The Dodgers should win this one in a blowout. I know the Cardinals were hot late in the season and that Max Scherzer did struggle in his final two starts of the season. However, he also is 3-0 with a 0.00 ERA in his last 3 starts against the Cardinals. Two of those were this season and in those 3 starts he allowed only 11 hits while striking out 33 in 21 innings! St Louis counters with Adam Wainwright here. He pitched well on the road this season but has had some rough seasons in terms of road struggles throughout his career. I have never been able to trust him as much on the road as a result and I have a strong feeling the Dodgers pound him here. Wainwright will face a Dodgers team that has won 7 straight games and 9 of its last 10. By the way, the combined margin of the 9 victories was 61 to 32. That works out to an average score of about 7 to 3.5 and there is certainly nothing "average" about that. With that said, and with the fact the Cardinals did lose 3 of their last 5 games and scored only 3 runs per game in those 5 games, I like this play no matter who the pitchers are. I expect a home blowout and will lay the -1.5 runs with action on the pitchers for those of you able to play that option at your respective sports book. 10* Los Angeles Dodgers Run Line -1.5 runs -100 |
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10-06-21 | Ottawa +9.5 v. Toronto | Top | 16-35 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
ESPN+ Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #679 Wednesday 10* Top Play Ottawa Redblacks +9.5 @ Toronto Argonauts @ 7:30 ET - Ottawa was much better in last week's win versus Edmonton. That was a Wednesday game too so they are fine on rest here too. The Argonauts are off a bye week so they are set up well here but I feel this is a dangerous game for them. Toronto has a big game with rival Hamilton on deck and that is on Monday. The Redblacks also have a game Monday at Montreal but the point is those big Thanksgiving Day (Canada) match-ups are more of a lookahead for the Argos in this case. Toronto is 4-3 and Hamilton is right behind them in the standings at 4-4 plus coming off their huge 2019 season. It is hard for the Argonauts to not already be thinking about that key battle with the Tigercats. As for the Redblacks, their mindset is quite different. The win over the Elks was key and if they get a win here they are suddenly just a game out of 1st place in the division! I look for another very motivated effort, just like we saw from them last week, as Ottawa makes this a difficult match-up for Toronto. Yes the Argos are the better team and at home and they may still win the game here but I don't see them covering this large number. The Redblacks capable of making this one a battle all the way to the finish. The Argonauts 4 wins this season all by 7 or less points and, in fact, the average margin was just 3.5 points in those 4 victories. Look for another tight one here. 10* OTTAWA +9.5 |
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10-05-21 | Yankees -120 v. Red Sox | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
AL East Game of the Year - Rickenbach MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play New York Yankees Money Line -120 @ Boston Red Sox @ 8:08 ET - The Yankees have won 9 of 12 to build a lot of momentum heading into the post-season. Give the Red Sox credit too as they got a key 3-game sweep at Washington to wrap up the regular season but prior to that Boston had lost 5 of 6 games. This included a sweep at the hands of the Yankees. Overall, the Red Sox have lost 6 straight games to New York and I look for that trend to continue here. I am simply playing the hotter team here so this bet is action (regardless of the starting pitchers) but I will touch on them here. The Yankees Gerrit Cole is 10-4 with a 3.32 ERA on the road this season. He has been solid against Boston in recent starts this season including piling up big strikeout totals. The same can not be said of Nathan Eovaldi. Yes the Red Sox right-hander had some good earlier successes against the Yankees but he just got destroyed in the most recent outing against them. In Boston a little over a week ago, Eovaldi allowed 7 earned runs in less than 3 innings of work. Overall, he allowed 14 hits in less than 8 innings of work in his last two starts versus New York. In Eovaldi's home start prior to facing the Yankees he also was hit hard by the Orioles. All that said, this one lines up well for a road rout in my opinion. Yankees make it 7 in a row over the Red Sox. 10* New York Yankees -120 |
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10-04-21 | Raiders +3 v. Chargers | Top | 14-28 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 15 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Monday 10* Top Play Las Vegas Raiders (+) @ Los Angeles Chargers @ 8:15 ET - The Raiders much-maligned defense was really bad last season but they are a little better this season. Statistically, based on yardage allowed, they are right about even with the Chargers. That said, I like the fact that Las Vegas does have the more potent offense and, sitting undefeated on the season, they are playing with a ton of confidence right now. I am not sold on this Chargers team. They are off to a good start this season as well but they faced two NFC East teams to start the season and then faced a Chiefs team that handed them the game on turnovers. Give Los Angeles some credit for sure but I am just saying they might be slightly over-rated at this early juncture in the season. The Raiders faced a strong Baltimore team, impressed with a road win in eastern time zone, and then suffered no letdown last week when they defeated Miami. Getting the 3 points is a strong value here as the Raiders potent offense insures their ability to stay in this game all the way through and I sense a road upset. Note that the road team has won each of the last 3 meetings between these teams. I don't see that changing here but will grab the points as added insurance. I know Chargers QB Justin Herbert is not on the injury report for this game but he did have his throwing hand iced and bandaged after the game at Kansas City last week. Perhaps a little bit of an issue for him in this game and, either way, I like the road dog that has shown a knack for finding a way in tight games this season. Give me the points. 10* LAS VEGAS +3 |
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10-03-21 | Bucs v. Patriots OVER 49.5 | Top | 19-17 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
Sunday Night Total of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New England Patriots vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 8:20 ET - The Patriots should have scored a lot more than 13 points last week but QB Mac Jones was done in by turnovers. He still threw for a ton of yardage though and the Pats did score 25 points in a win the week before. Also, Jones is taking on a Buccaneers defense that has been susceptible through the air this season. The Bucs ground defense has been solid plus New England likely to be playing catch up here so I expect them to be forced to throw the ball a lot. I know a lot is being made of Tom Brady's return to Foxboro and I get that 100% but the fact is this Bucs passing attack is a machine right now and I am expecting them to move the ball very well all night long against a Pats defense that has not faced a quarterback anywhere close to the level of Brady this season. Granted Brady is in a class of his own but my point is none of the teams the Patriots have faced this season had even what one could refer to as a strong QB presence. Now they face one of the NFL's greatest of all time at that position and TB is off a loss and threw like crazy against a solid Rams defense. That said I am looking for a ton of passing from the Bucs here and the Pats will be forced to throw as well for the two reasons I noted above. I am aware of rain expected in the area tonight but the heavier stuff is expected in the overnight hours and also the winds are expected to be light. So really this shapes up well for both offenses to excel and I look for a shootout here. 10* OVER 49.5 in New England |
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10-03-21 | Ravens v. Broncos | Top | 23-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
AFC Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Baltimore Ravens PICK'EM @ Denver Broncos @ 4:25 ET - I know the Chiefs are just 1-2 this season but Kansas City is still a very good football team. What does that have to do with this play? Kansas City is one of the teams the Ravens beat and the Chiefs were in the Super Bowl (again!) last season! As for Baltimore's lone loss it came in OT and in a very tough setting at Las Vegas in Week 1 when the Raiders finally were able to have a stadium full of fans and it showed. Also, LV is now 3-0 on the season. Speaking of 3-0 records, so too are the Broncos. However, let me know when they play somebody meaningful! Actually, that is happening this week and that is the point! The Broncos are highly over-rated right now in my opinion because they are undefeated this season but they have played 3 teams that are now a combined 0-10 on the season! Denver has faced the Jaguars, Giants, and Jets! Now the Broncos finally face a tough football team and I do not expect this to go well at all for them. The fact the Ravens are on the road for this one is even better for us because the line is a pick'em as a result. If the game was in Baltimore that means we would likely be laying 6 or 7 points in this one which I would still recommend but I much prefer this situation. The Ravens are riding the positive emotion of a dramatic last-second win last week and they come to Denver and take care of business in this one. The Broncos finally face a real challenge and that changes everything. 10* BALTIMORE PICK'EM |
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10-03-21 | Indians v. Rangers OVER 7.5 | Top | 6-0 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 7.5 in Texas vs Cleveland @ 3:05 ET - I understand the low total here because Dunning has good numbers at home this season. However, with yesterday's 7-2 Rangers win, both these teams are on solid over trends and Dunning does enter this game in poor numbers looking at his last 3 starts. He has allowed 13 hits and 7 walks in 12 innings of work. Yes those outings were on the road but I am not expecting sudden magic at home for him and he is facing an Indians team that had been averaging 6.4 runs per game last 5 games prior to yesterday's 7-2 loss. As for Rangers sticks, they have averaged 5.5 runs last 8 games and face a struggling Civale. The Indians right-hander has allowed 11 earned runs in 7 innings in his last two starts and given up 6 longballs in those two outings. This one should easily get over the low total. 10* OVER 7.5 in Texas |
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10-03-21 | Manchester City v. Liverpool OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 54 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach EPL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 goals in Liverpool vs Manchester City @ 11:30 AM ET - This is a battle of heavyweights in the Premier League. I know match-ups like this can sometimes turn into grinders but I expect plenty of scoring in this one. Liverpool has been in fantastic form and is averaging 2.5 goals per match this season to lead the league in scoring. Manchester City is not far behind as they are averaging 2 goals per match. I know City is known for their tough defense but Liverpool is simply playing at a phenomenal level on the attacking side of things. At the same time, I doubt Liverpool is going to shut down City as the other end of the pitch either. Just a lot of firepower on the attack for both of these clubs and this total opened up at a 3 in many spots. The ability to turn a final result of 3 goals from a push to a win, after some downward line movement has moved this total down to a 2.5, has me elevating this play to my highest level on Sunday. 10* OVER 2.5 goals in Liverpool |
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10-02-21 | Fresno State v. Hawaii OVER 64 | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 37 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 64 in Hawaii Warriors vs Fresno State Bulldogs @ 11 PM ET - These two teams both capable of scoring in bunches. The Fresno State offense has been even better than advertised. The Bulldogs have the better defense, also why they are favored by double digits here, but note they did just allow 30 points to UNLV and had to rally for the win. Hawaii will take momentum from scoring 41 points in last week's win but their defense going to struggle to stop a Fresno State offense that, other than a tough loss at Oregon, has scored an average of 46.5 points in its other 4 games - all wins. So, look at this way, if Fresno State expected to win this game by double digits and they have averaged mid-40s in wins then that puts this game around a 45 to 35 type game which is well over the mid-60s total posted on this one. Both team play at a quick pace on offense and the Warriors will likely be playing catch-up here so that forces the tempo a bit. Fresno averaging over 500 yards of offense this season and particularly strong through the air and the Warriors are allowing nearly 300 passing yards per game! I know the Bulldogs have some decent defensive numbers but that was helped in part by facing Connecticut and Cal Poly Slo this season! In the other 3 games the Bulldog allowed at least 30 in each one. More of the same expected here. 10* OVER 64 in Hawaii |
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10-02-21 | Auburn +3 v. LSU | Top | 24-19 | Win | 100 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
SEC Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFB 10* Top Play Auburn Tigers (+) @ LSU Tigers @ 9 ET - I lost a lot of respect for this LSU team when they lost at UCLA early in the season. I know they ended up getting the win last week against Mississippi State but LSU was outgained in that game and it was a very fortunate win. So the Bruins and the Bulldogs were the only two tough games that LSU has had this season and they should have lost both games. I am well aware of the fact that Auburn lost their big game at Penn State earlier this season but that was a strong game from them! The stats were roughly equal in that game and Auburn is a perfect 3-0 on the season and could very easily be 4-0. Of course LSU is out for revenge after getting blasted by Auburn last season but revenge tends to be over-played. The fact is Auburn is the much better defense in this match-up and, on offense, has the vastly superior ground attack. I love taking road underdogs that play solid defense and can run the ball on offense. I know this is a night game in Baton Rouge and being played with revenge, etc. but this is not the same level of LSU teams we have seen in the past. I feel we have excellent line value here with the road team getting a full field goal. I also like the fact that QB Finley is a former LSU players and if Nix plays I also look to him be better after being benched last week. That was a wakeup call for him and this is a well-coached Auburn team capable of punching LSU in the mouth all night long. 10* AUBURN +3 |
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10-02-21 | A's v. Astros OVER 9 | Top | 4-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Houston Astros vs Oakland A's @ 7:10 ET - Yesterday's game exploded for 14 runs and I am expecting more of the same today. Not only did we see some bullpen implosion yesterday, both of these starters are likely to struggle. The Astros Jake Odorizzi has not lasted long in recent starts and the over is 6-3 in his home starts this season. The A's Paul Blackburn has a 5.79 ERA and a 1.79 WHIP on the road this season. These pitchers just matched up last week and that helps the hitters here as they see them immediately again and neither pitcher was overly dominant. I know Blackburn was better than Odorizzi but he still recorded only 1 strikeout in the 5-inning start and now faces the Astros in their own park. Houston still trying to hang onto the #2 seed in the AL for the post-season but the A's have averaged 5 runs a game last 7 games and will work to play the role of spoiler here but the Astros bats answer the call too as the over improves to 12-6 in the 18 games between these teams this season. 10* OVER 9 in Houston |
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10-02-21 | Saskatchewan v. Calgary +2.5 | Top | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
ATS Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Saturday 10* Top Play Calgary Stampeders (+) vs Saskatchewan Roughriders @ 7 ET - This line may look funny but Calgary is way better than their record shows. Keep in mind, the Stampeders are coming off a huge season and have been looking better in recent games. Also, they enter this game off a bye week and are 14-2 SU the last 16 times when coming off a bye. I really don't think we'll need the points here but I am grabbing the 2.5 points. The Stampeders are only 2-5 on the season but only 1 of their losses was by more than 6 points. This is a team that has been within one possession of a 6-1 season thus far. The fact is the Riders are a strong team and they have the record to show for it too. However, they have played only 2 road games this season (went 1-1) and that has certainly helped their strong start. Also, the Roughriders are off a big comeback win last week and that was on the road and it took a lot in rallying for the win. The Stamps will be the more rested team and fresher team and they bring it big-time in what is essentially a must-win game for them to get back into the thick of things out west. Look for them to do just that as they improve to 15-2 when off a bye week! 10* CALGARY +2.5 |
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10-02-21 | Arsenal v. Brighton & Hove Albion OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
NBC National TV Blowout - Rickenbach EPL Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 in Brighton & Hove vs Arsenal @ 12:30 ET - Part of what has fueled the recent Arsenal surge is their health on defense and that would tend to point one toward an under. However, the confidence in the back-end has actually fueled a surge on the attack going the other way. Arsenal has been extremely impressive on the attack and has scored at least a goal in 4 straight matches across all competitions including 3 goals in each of the past two. As for Brighton & Hove, they have scored at least a goal in 4 straight matches across all competitions and have averaged 1.5 goals during this stretch while Arsenal has averaged 2 goals during this stretch. I don't see Arsenal settling for a draw either as they look to notch a 5th straight victory. That said, per all of the above you can see why I am expecting at least a 2-1 final here. The victor has tallied 2 goals in 3 of the last 4 meetings between these clubs and I expect at least that here with a 2-1 tally being the most likely result. Arsenal pushes the pace again here but Brighton fares well on their home pitch also. 10* OVER 2.5 in Brighton & Hove |
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10-01-21 | Winnipeg -120 v. BC | Top | 30-9 | Win | 100 | 15 h 15 m | Show |
Money Line Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFL Friday 10* Top Play Winnipeg Blue Bombers -120 @ BC Lions @ 10 ET - The Blue Bombers have only 1 loss in 7 games this season. Both these teams have great offenses led by strong quarterbacks but the Winnipeg defense is what should key a win here. The fact the Blue Bombers are on the road is helping to give us line value here as otherwise they would likely be about a TD favorite if they were the hosts. That said I love the extra value here and instead of even laying the point and a half lets grab the very affordable money line which is in a -120 price range as of early game day morning. Another big variance here is that Winnipeg has a number of wins over strong teams. Unlike the Blue Bombers, the Lions wins have only come against teams that currently have losing records: Ottawa (2-5) twice, Calgary (2-5) and Montreal (2-4). The road team is the far superior team in this match-up in my opinion and has already handed Saskatchewan its only 2 losses and has wins over Hamilton and Toronto - both those teams have winning records this season. Last but certainly not least, the Blue Bombers are off a bye last week while BC was battling it out with Saskatchewan last week. Big rest edge for the road team. 10* WINNIPEG -120Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â |
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10-01-21 | Iowa v. Maryland +3.5 | Top | 51-14 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
Reichenator Rout - Rickenbach CFB Friday 10* Top Play Maryland Terrapins +3.5 vs Iowa Hawkeyes @ 8 ET - When a team is favored by a field goal it is not quite the same as being a pick'em but the point is most games are decided by 3 or more points in football. The reason I mention that here is because I find it quite interesting that a team ranked #5 in the nation is favored by such a small number here. That said, the public is likely to be enticed to play Iowa here. Don't be fooled by this line! Yes, the Hawkeyes have played the tougher schedule so far this season but do not underestimate these Terrapins. They are undefeated on the season, just like Iowa, and statistically their defense has not been that far behind that of the Hawkeyes. The key statistical variance in looking at these two teams is actually on the other side of the ball where Maryland has been the much stronger team. The Terrapins offense, based on yardage, ranks among the best in the nation while the Hawkeyes offense production ranks among the worst. Iowa does hold the defensive edge but I am expecting a big game from Tagovailoa here and the QB helps lead the way to a home win in this one. If they do fall short I expect it to be by the slimmest of margins so I am grabbing the points here. 10* MARYLAND +3.5 |
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10-01-21 | Red Sox v. Nationals OVER 9 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -118 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
IL Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 9 runs in Washington Nationals vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:05 ET - The Red Sox dropped yesterday game but this was preceded by an 8-4 stretch in which they scored an average of 8 runs per game in the 8 victories. Boston is still battling hard for a wild card spot and I expect them to score plenty here. They'll need all the runs they can get because Washington is off a 10-5 loss but it marked the 7th time in last 10 games that they have scored 5 or more runs! The Nationals Josh Rogers got hit hard in his most recent start plus had control issues with more walks than strikeouts. Boston's Eduardo Rodriguez has a 4.93 ERA this season and is facing a Nats lineup that has hit lefties well. More of the same expected here and taking advantage of the low total in this one. 10* OVER 9 runs in Washington |
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09-30-21 | Jaguars +7.5 v. Bengals | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5 @ Cincinnati Bengals @ 8:20 ET - The Bengals are 2-1 on the season plus at home and they are facing a winless Jacksonville team. This should be easy, right? Absolute blowout for the home team, right? No not at all! In fact I would not be surprised to see this one result in an outright upset for the underdog but I am grabbing the generous points being offered. The Jaguars are 0-3 but there are only five 3-0 teams in the league at this point in the season and Jacksonville faced two of them. Conversely, the Bengals have faced three teams that all have losing records now at this point in the season. Also, Cincinnati's win over the Vikings in Week 1 was a fortunate one and it took OT to get it. Also, the Bengals win last week at Pittsburgh was driven by turnovers. The Steelers actually outgained Cincinnati in that game. As you can see, big value with the underdog in this one and it is a big of a hidden value which is what makes it even better as I expect the line to stay in the 7.5 or 8 range and, keep in mind, this line had opened up at a 6.5 which was for a reason as I like to say! 10* JACKSONVILLE +7.5 |
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09-30-21 | Virginia v. Miami-FL -5.5 | Top | 30-28 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
Reichenator Rout - Rickenbach CFB Thursday 10* Top Play Miami Hurricanes -5.5 vs Virginia Cavaliers @ 7:30 ET - The Hurricanes are playing their first ACC game while this is the 3rd one for the Cavaliers. However, I expect this actually to work to Miami's edge in this case. That's because Virginia is 0-2 in ACC action already and the handwriting is on the wall early for them this season. As for the Canes, they are expected to perform well in the ACC this season and enter this one at 0-0 with everything in front of them. Yes, they have two non-conference losses but they were to Michigan State and Alabama - a pair of 4-0 teams. Note that Miami just thrashed an FCS school last week which is a big confidence boost heading into this game. Also, D'Eriq King should be back after sitting that one out and his shoulder has improved. He was solid on the ground and through the air when the Canes beat a solid Appalachian State team a few weeks ago. I feel we are getting good value here with the better team and the home team and we get that value because they have two losses but to two undefeated teams. The Cavs defense has simply been atrocious this season and the Canes better defense at home will be the difference maker here even if King did not play or was limited but I do not expect any issues with that here. Either way, 10* MIAMI -5.5 |
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09-30-21 | Angels v. Rangers OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs in Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels @ 2:05 ET - Yesterday's 7-2 Angels win snuck over the total to improve the over to 6-3 in the last 9 Los Angeles games. Look for today's to fly over the total much more easily. The over is 3-1 in Rangers last 4 games against a right-handed starter and they should pound Cobb in this one. The Angels righty has a 4.99 ERA in road starts this season and the over is 11-6 in all his starts this season. The Rangers counter with Otto on the bump for this one and he is 0-3 with an 8.02 ERA in his 5 starts this season and is off a decent start versus Baltimore but this followed getting absolutely destroyed in the two starts just prior to that. Otto gets pounded here again but look for Cobb to have major problems too. The Rangers had won 3 of 4 games and scored an average of 5.5 runs per game before struggling yesterday so I look for them to get back on track in a big way this afternoon and both teams enjoy plenty of success at the plate. 10* OVER 8.5 in Texas |
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09-30-21 | Brewers v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs in St Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 1:15 ET - The Cardinals winning streak ended yesterday but this was after 17 straight wins. St Louis averaged scoring 7 runs per game during this stretch. Look for bounce back at plate today for Cardinals. The Brewers were on a 4-2 run to the over before yesterday's low-scoring shutout win. St Louis was on a 6-1 run to the over before the shutout loss. The hitters bounce back today as Brett Anderson has a 5.87 ERA and ridiculous 2.22 WHIP last 3 starts. JA Happ is coming back down to earth after a strong run as he has allowed 11 baserunners in 8 innings his last two starts and is not working deep into games. This is still a guy with a 5.86 ERA on the season and the Brewers fully relaxed at the plate as their playoff position is locked in. The Cardinals also locked into their wild card spot. Look for the hitters to excel in this one and that is even if a few of the regular rest which I am well aware of that potential. 10* OVER 8.5 runs in St Louis |
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09-29-21 | Red Sox v. Orioles OVER 9.5 | Top | 6-0 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 runs in Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:05 ET - The Red Sox had just 3 hits in yesterday's game. Now they face a pitcher they have crushed to the tune of a 15.90 ERA in his two starts against them this season. Not only that but Zac Lowther has struggled overall in his starts this season with his most recent one (albeit versus a bad Texas lineup) being a rare exception. Boston entered yesterday's game scoring an average of nearly 7 runs per game last 9 games so look for a big bounce back here. The Sox will need all the runs they can get to because I do expect Nathan Eovaldi to struggle as well. The Orioles just recently faced Eovaldi and got to him for 3 earned runs on 7 hits in just 5 innings and now they face him in Baltimore where their home slugging percentage ranks among the best in the majors. Eovaldi has allowed 10 earned runs in less than 8 innings over his last two starts and the over is a perfect 3-0 in his last 3 starts. Look for that trend to continue here. 10* OVER 9.5 runs in Baltimore |
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09-29-21 | Nationals v. Rockies OVER 12 | Top | 5-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 12 runs in Colorado Rockies vs Washington Nationals @ 3:10 ET - Yesterday's game totaled only 4 runs. The posted total on this one opened up at 12.5 and has dropped to a 12 and I am looking for a much different result today as both lineups explode. This is Espino's first ever start at Coors Field. The Nationals are an ugly 1-6 in his road starts and he has a 5.90 ERA away from home. Lambert is making just his 2nd start of the season and he was a bit shaky in the first one last week. This included giving up 2 homers in less than 4 innings of work. Lambert is now 3-7 with a 7.16 ERA in his 20 career MLB starts. Opponents have hit .319 against him in his MLB career which includes his 19 starts for the Rockies in 2019. Two starting pitchers likely to struggle and neither bullpen has been a strength this season. 10* OVER 12 runs in Colorado |
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09-28-21 | Edmonton Elks -6.5 v. Ottawa | Top | 24-34 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
ESPN+ Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFL Tuesday 10* Top Play Edmonton Elks -6.5 @ Ottawa Redblacks @ 7:30 ET - Both teams dealing with QB injuries but the situation for the Redblacks is even worse. Also I like what I saw from Elks QB Taylor Cornelius last week but he just needs to cut down on the turnovers. This is a revenge game for a week 2 home loss for Edmonton in which they lost 16 to 12 despite a massive yardage edge! The Elks outgained Ottawa by a 443 to 127 edge! I seriously do not know if there has ever been another CFL game in history with that type of yardage domination and yet a loss for the team with the big edge! It is payback time here and Ottawa is 0-3 at home this season and their win over the Elks is their only win this year! The Redblacks 5 losses have been by an average margin of 19.2 points! The very first number to come out on this game is 6.5 and I expect it to climb but, either way, expect a road rout by a double digit margin. Elks have #1 pass defense and #2 rush defense in the league in terms of yards allowed per game. 10* EDMONTON -6.5 |
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09-28-21 | Phillies +109 v. Braves | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
Game of the Year - Rickenbach MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +110 @ Atlanta Braves @ 7:20 ET - This series with the Braves is the Phillies season. They have no shot at a wild card berth now but can still catch Atlanta and win the division. Of course the fact Philadelphia faces practically a must win situation does not guarantee anything. But I do expect them to come out strong and take Game 1 of this series. The Phillies are off a loss to Pittsburgh Sunday but this followed a 9-2 run. Also, Philadelphia had won 7 in a row against right-handed starters before that loss. The Braves are only 11-13 last 24 home games. Charlie Morton starts here and his last home start against the Phillies was a disaster as he could not even make it out of the first inning. Zack Wheeler starts for the Phillies. He has allowed just 1 earned run while striking out 20 in 15 innings in his last two starts against the Braves. Also, Wheeler enters this start in top notch form! The veteran right-hander has led the Phillies to a perfect 5-0 record in his last 5 starts. Also, in his 4 starts in the month of September, Wheeler has a 1.14 ERA while striking out 32 in 23 and 2/3 innings! Look for his dominance to continue here and the Phillies improve to 8-1 last 9 against a right-handed starters while dropping the Braves to a pedestrian 11-14 mark in their last 25 home games. 10* PHILADELPHIA +110 |
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09-28-21 | Cubs v. Pirates OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs @ 6:35 ET - The Pirates had been scoring runs like crazy and the over is 6-3 in their last 9 games. Prior to yesterday's ugly 13-1 loss the Pirates had scored 5 or more runs in 7 of 8 games. Also consider that this is a late season match-up between two teams just playing out the string. No playoff pressure so the hitters on each club can be fully relaxed and that is bad news for a pair of starters likely to struggle. I really would not care who starts here because will mention that the Cubs are off an under but this followed 10 straight overs! The fact is both of these clubs have been getting involved in plenty of high-scoring action of late no matter who is on the mound. Now I will touch on the pitchers as Alec Mills has been rocked in each of his last two starts overall and also has really struggled against the Pirates with 7 homers allowed in 3 starts and all have been in past 13 months! As for Pittsburgh starter Mitch Keller, he is 2-8 with a 7.76 ERA in his 13 home starts this season! Both teams continue the over trending in this one. 10* OVER 8.5 runs in Pittsburgh |
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09-27-21 | Eagles +3.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 21-41 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 54 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles +3.5 @ Dallas Cowboys @ 8:15 ET - Value with the points here. First divisional game for each of these teams and it is an early-season battle for first place in the NFC Least as I like to call it! Both of these teams have looked a little better than expected early this season but like the fact that, though both teams went 1-5 ATS in divisional games last season, the Cowboys are laying 3 plus the hook here and they went an ugly 1-6 ATS as a favorite last season. Philadelphia has been the better team defensively early this season and I also like the fact that they have been running the ball well early this season. When you have a road team that can establish the ground game on offense plus play very strong on the other side of the ball, you have a good shot at a road dog cover if not upset win. Also note that Dallas is 2-0 ATS this season but look around the league after yesterday's results and you can see how rare it is for teams to be perfect 3-0 ATS after 3 weeks. In other words the odds a bit stacked against the Cowboys here and I do like the fact that the road teams are a perfect 2-0 ATS this season in both Eagles games and Dallas games. Those trends continue here and the road dog relies on solid defensive play as well as a strong ground game on offense to grind out the win (at least ATS win) in this one. 10* PHILADELPHIA +3.5 |
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09-27-21 | Brighton & Hove Albion +162 v. Crystal Palace | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach EPL Monday 10* Top Play Brighton & Hove Albion +162 @ Crystal Palace @ 3 ET - Brighton & Hove has a chance to move to the top of the table with a win here and picking up the full three points. I love the fact that they are winless in their last four meetings with Crystal Palace as that is helping to keep this line in a very valuable price range. I do not see Brighton settling for a draw here as they will go hard for the full 3 points to do their best to earn the points needed to vault to the top of the table! I know they have only produced 7 goals in their 5 matches this season but Brighton & Hove does have a more potent attack than that of Crystal Palace. The visitors in this one are full of confidence and looking to end that winless run versus the hosts and I do not see them being denied. The hotter club is on the road (which gives us extra line value) and firing on all cylinders and keep in mind, Crystal Palace had one shocking 3-0 home win but, other than that, has tallied only 2 goals total in its other 4 matches! 10* BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION +162Â |
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09-27-21 | White Sox v. Tigers +142 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Monday 10* Top Play Detroit Tigers Money Line +142 vs Chicago White Sox @ 1:10 ET - ACTION on pitchers. No matter who pitches here this play is all about the value. The White Sox have already locked up the division and Chicago's road record is a slight losing record while the Tigers home record is a slight winning record. The point is that there is value on the home dog even just looking at this game from that perspective. The White Sox are off a win yesterday but have lost 9 times the last 10 when coming off a win! The Tigers are off a loss yesterday but this was preceded by a 10-4 run as they have been a scrappy team during this stretch run of the season. In fact, Detroit is 7-2 last 9 games when coming off a loss. Nice set up here regardless of the pitchers but I will mention that Keuchel has allowed 25 hits in 16 and 2/3 innings his last 3 starts overall and the White Sox are 4-11 in his starts this season! As for Manning, he has allowed only 10 hits in 14 innings spanning his last 3 starts and the Tigers went 3-0 in those starts and are 6-3 in his home starts this season! 10* DETROIT +142 |
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09-27-21 | Royals v. Indians OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
Earliest Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 runs in Cleveland Indians vs Kansas City Royals @ 1:10 ET - Jackson Kowar is the expected starter for the Royals here and he is 0-4 with an 11.45 ERA. Cal Quantrill has great numbers for the Indians but he just faced Kansas City last week and that could be a problem here. They have hit him decently this season (including 3 homers in 2 starts) plus are now getting a quick second look at him after having just seen him. Also, this total went from a 9 to a 9.5 and given the recent under stretch for the Royals I believe this is a sign of sharp money funneling in on the over in this one. My money is going to be on it as well. Yes the Indians game stayed under yesterday but the teams combined for 23 hits! That's ridiculous. Also ridiculous was the Royals having only 2 runs on 10 hits in their game yesterday. This game makes up for yesterday as the situation is ideal. 10* OVER 9.5 runs in Cleveland |
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09-26-21 | Packers v. 49ers -3 | Top | 30-28 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 23 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - NFL Sunday 10* Top Play San Francisco 49ers (-) vs Green Bay Packers @ 8:20 ET - The 49ers burned their backers when they let the Lions get a miracle backdoor cover in Week 1. Green Bay then burned Lions backers last week with a big 2nd half to get the money. Still the Packers were outgained by Detroit in that game and also looked very ugly in their season-opening 38 to 3 loss to the Saints. The point is that I still do not think things are as they should be in Green Bay just yet and we are getting a lot of line value here as a result. The Niners got embarrassed by the Packers when these teams met last season but this is much more than a revenge spot for San Francisco. It is also their home opener and they get Green Bay on a short week as they are coming off a Monday night win versus Detroit. If you look at the Packers statistically it is quite ugly. As for the Niners stats a lot of the yardage allowed to the Lions was in garbage time of what was otherwise a blowout win. Then last week SF battled hard for a win over a resilient Eagles team that is playing solid defense early this season. I feel we have excellent line value with the home team now dropping to a -3 here after being as high as a -4 in early trading action earlier this week. Keep in mind the public still remembers the 6-10 SF team of last season and the 4-12 team that preceded the 49ers big season in 2019. As for the public's viewpoint on the Packers all they can remember is the 13-3 records of the past two seasons but that Aaron Rodgers holdout situation has effected the team chemistry of this team and last week's win was not reflective of how the game should have played out - just look at the stats - and again this was the same Lions team that the Niners really destroyed in week one before letting them in for a miracle backdoor cover. Tremendous line value here. 10* SAN FRANCISCO |
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09-26-21 | Dolphins v. Raiders OVER 43.5 | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
Total of the Month - NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 43.5 in Las Vegas Raiders vs Miami Dolphins @ 4:05 ET - I know Brissett did not look good in relief of the injured Tagovailoa last week but he is a veteran QB fully capable of a bounce back here. Also, he goes from facing one of the best defenses in the league to facing one of the worst. Miami's numbers are poor on offense this season but they faced the Bills and Patriots and those two defenses have been very solid early this season. The Raiders, on the other hand, have a very questionable secondary but I do love their offense and expect plenty of success in this one for the Las Vegas offense at home. The key to the over is we have seen this total drop from the upper 40s to the low 40s and we have great value as a result. Las Vegas, at 2-0 and with a divisional game at the Chargers on deck, could make the mistake defensively of being a bit flat in this one. After all, they hung on for a dramatic OT win in week 1 over the Ravens and then went on the road and beat the Steelers. The set up is now ideal for the Dolphins to surprise and have a very good game on offense. However, I do not trust their defense against a Raiders offense that is very dangerous. As a result, plenty of points in this one and we have a great value with a low total that has been driven even lower in trading. 10* OVER 43.5 in Las Vegas |
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09-26-21 | Rangers v. Orioles -122 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -122 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
Early Dominator - MLB Sunday 10* Top Play Baltimore Orioles -122 vs Texas Rangers @ 1:05 ET - I know it might seem tough to trust the Orioles but keep in mind we are fading the Rangers. That is the key and that is also why I am making this bet with action (pitchers NOT listed). Baltimore got the win yesterday and Texas is now 23-57 in road games this season. The Orioles are one of the better slugging teams in the majors when at home and I look for them to get the job done here in this one. Now I will touch on the pitchers here but, again, this play is action on the pitchers. Dane Dunning is 0-7 with a 6.80 ERA in his 11 road starts this season and the Rangers have lost 10 of those 11 games. The Orioles John Means has been back in top form for quite some time now! Means has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 5 straight starts and he has averaged 6 innings per start during this stretch. The home team rolls to a blowout win here. 10* BALTIMORE -122 |
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09-26-21 | Royals v. Tigers OVER 9 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #915 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 9 runs in Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals @ 12:10 ET - Both these starting pitchers have some good recent numbers and I know that each of these teams have been trending under of late. However, yesterday's game had 18 hits but only 6 runs and I have reason to believe these pitchers get rocked here. Peralta allowed 5 earned runs in less than 6 innings when he last started against the Royals two weeks ago. Bubic has a 1.79 WHIP in his 3 career starts against the Tigers so he is lucky his ERA against them is not even higher. Speaking of high ERA numbers, Bubic now starts at Detroit for the first time in his career and he has a 5.68 ERA on the road this season. Each of his last two road starts stayed under but this followed the over going 6-2 in Bubic's first 8 road starts this season. That type of trending resumes here. 10* OVER 9 in Detroit |
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09-26-21 | Tottenham Hotspur v. Arsenal OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 105 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
Total of the Week - EPL 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 goals in Arsenal vs Tottenham @ 11:30 AM ET - These two clubs have been two of the lowest scoring clubs in league action so far this season. In typical contrarian fashion that has me on the over here. The reason is because when these rivals match up you can often throw logic out the window. The fact is this should be a spirited and entertaining match-up and the health of Arsenal is now much better than it was earlier this season. We get a low posted total here because of the trending of these two clubs early this season but I am looking for nothing less than 2-1 final in this one and that would cash our ticket. 3 of the last 4 meetings between these clubs in league action have totaled 3 or more goals. More of the same here. 10* OVER 2.5 goals in Arsenal |
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09-25-21 | Oregon State v. USC -10.5 | Top | 45-27 | Loss | -112 | 16 h 21 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play USC Trojans -10.5 - The Trojans lost their most recent home game to Stanford and it got their head coach fired. Still shell-shocked from that, USC traveled to Washington State and spotted the Cougars a 14-0 lead. Their response? Southern Cal, let by interim coach Donte Williams, rattled off 45 straight points in the huge 45-14 win! That was against the same Cougars team that won at Oregon State by double digits last season and that was the only win Washington State had in their shortened 4-game season. The point is that the Beavers are not a great football program. They have gotten a little better but still they particularly are lacking on defense and I expect USC to have a huge day on offense as they are rolling with confidence after how last week's game played out. The Trojans have won 23 straight games at Memorial Coliseum when hosting the Beavers. That said, of course we still must cover the spread here but I love the fact that the line has dropped from 13 to near 10 now and QB Kedon Slovis is back for the Trojans here and pronounced 100% ready to go after dealing with a neck injury. Southern Cal just has too much talent and too many weapons at the skill positions for Oregon State to be able to keep up in this one. Yes the Beavers are off to a 1-2 start but they lost their only challenging game (at Purdue) and the Trojans have played the tougher schedule. Also, USC is hell bent on making up for their embarrassing home loss in their last game here so I look for the Trojans to keep their foot on the gas throughout this game and win by at least a 3 TD margin! Lay the big points and look for a home blowout in this one. 10* USC -10.5 |
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09-25-21 | North Carolina v. Georgia Tech OVER 64.5 | Top | 22-45 | Win | 100 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 64.5 in Georgia Tech - Yellow Jackets off a low-scoring battle with Clemson but look for this one to be a "track meet" with facing North Carolina. The Tar Heels have scored 59 points each of the last weeks but also gave up over 550 passing yards and 39 points last week. Georgia Tech did throw for over 200 yards versus a stellar Clemson defense last week and I expect the Jackets to enjoy success through the air here. I also suspect that the Yellow Jackets will be forced to throw a lot in this one because they will be playing catch-up throughout this game. The Heels offense is a quick-strike group that is simply too good and too explosive and they won't be slowed down on the fast track at Mercedes Benz Stadium for this one. In years past the Jackets used to run a triple option attack and would be running a lot and also running clock as a result. This is a different team these days and I expect a shootout to be the ultimate result in this game. 10* OVER 64.5 in Georgia Tech |
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09-25-21 | Astros v. A's OVER 8 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 8 runs in Oakland - The A's off a 14-2 win yesterday and the over is now a perfect 8-0 in meetings between these teams at Oakland this season. Overall the Astros have had only 2 unders last dozen games so no matter who is on the mound here I am playing the over in this game. Take action on pitchers if you can. I will mention the pitchers here but the hot bats should continue no matter what in this one. The Astros averaging 7 runs last dozen games. The Athletics averaging 5.5 runs last dozen games. Houston starter Valdez has had the over go 3-0 in his last 3 starts. His last one was a good one but he allowed 4 earned runs in each of his two starts preceding that one. Valdez also allowed 5 earned runs in his only start against Oakland this season. The A's Sean Manaea enters this start struggling with an 8.10 ERA in his last two starts. The Astros tee off on the lefty here as they are #1 in the AL in both batting average and on base percentage against lefties on the season. Look for the over to reach 9-0 on the season in games between these teams at the Coliseum. 10* OVER 8 runs in Oakland |
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09-25-21 | Cardinals v. Cubs +146 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
MLB Saturday 10* Top Play Chicago Cubs Money Line +145 - Cardinals 14-game winning streak has been amazing. It ends here. Cubs get payback after getting swept in yesterday's double-header. I do not care who pitches here. Taking the home team to get back into the win column. However, I will mention that Jon Lester got hammered by the Cubs here earlier this season at Wrigley Field in his lone start against them since leaving Chicago (when was he with Washington earlier this season). Also, the Cubs Adrian Sampson has been respectable in his 3 starts and this will be his first start against St Louis which certainly could be an edge for him against the Cardinals hitters. Contrarian play but this is the right spot for it as the St Louis winning streak reaching 14 means it tied a club record that stood for 86 years - since July of 1935. That is how improbable all this is and I look for it come to an end here and will grab the big home dog. 10* CHICAGO CUBS +145 |
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09-25-21 | Liverpool v. Brentford OVER 2.5 | Top | 3-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
EPL 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 in Brentford - On the surface this would look like an under. Brentford has conceded just twice in five matches while Liverpool has conceded only once in five matches. However, there is so much more than meets the eye here at first glance. Brentford has faced a rather easy set of fixtures thus far and this includes a number of clubs that are having major goal-scoring issues early this season. Now they host a Liverpool club that has scored 3 goals in each of its last 4 matches across all competitions. Prior to this 4-game stretch they scored only 1 but it was against Chelsea and is the only goal Chelsea has conceded this season! Also, they scored 2 against Burnley and that is a club that is known for playing tight, low-scoring defensive-minded matches. The point is we have a lot of value here with a low total of 2.5 when you consider the firepower the Liverpool attack has! Also, Brentford has averaged 2.6 goals per match its last 5 matches and should at least find the back of the net once as a host against Liverpool. Even if they do not, they are not going to be able to stop the Liverpool attack in my opinion and I am looking for the visitors to score at least 3 in this one as they will want to make a statement. Brentford only got elevated to the league this season and they have played an early season schedule filled with clubs that just are not scoring well. This has led to the strength of their defensive play being over-estimated. This total should be higher than 2.5 and I will not hesitate to step in and take advantage and go with my highest rated play here. 10* OVER 2.5 in Brentford |
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09-25-21 | LSU v. Mississippi State +2.5 | Top | 28-25 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 9* TOP Mississippi State Bulldogs +2.5 - Revenge game for LSU on the one hand as the Bulldogs beat the Tigers in Louisiana last season. However, lets not forget what happened the year before than when Mississippi State was the host and lost by 23 points despite the first downs in the game being equal. The point is that the Bulldogs have been reminded of that home loss beatdown heading into this game and I feel we have the stronger team at home and in a great spot. Mississippi State is off a loss at Memphis that never should have happened as they outgained those Tigers by more than 200 yards! Now they get a chance to dominate these Tigers and I do feel LSU is a little over-valued right now. The Bulldogs have played the tougher early season schedule and the Tigers are of back to back wins but against Central Michigan and McNeese State. In the only tough game LSU has had they lost to UCLA by double digits. Simply put, this is not the LSU teams of old and they are facing an up and coming Mississippi State team that has impressed early this season and won't make the same mistakes this week at home which they made last week on the road. 9* MISSISSIPPI STATE +2.5 |
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09-24-21 | Montreal v. Toronto -135 | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
CFL Friday 10* Top Play Toronto Argonauts -135 vs Montreal Alouettes @ 7:30 ET - Recommend laying the -135 price on the money line rather than the 2.5 points here. Feel it absolutely could prove worth the extra 25 cent price to do so. In terms of SU win this season, Montreal has just 2 and they were against a pair of teams that have a combined 3-9 record. Conversely, Toronto is 3-3 on the season and has a pair of wins against teams with a combined 10-4 record. The Argonauts also have not yet faced the worst team (Ottawa) in the league either. That said, I feel we have some solid line value here with the Argos at home and the Als being a bit over-rated at this point in the season. Toronto also hired long-time CFL veteran coach Chris Jones to be, essentially, their defensive coordinator. With him calling the plays now on defense, look for his presence to be felt immediately and the Argonauts respond well here. Yes I am aware of the QB situation for the home team here but Bethel-Thompson certainly use to being a starter so no issues there. 10* TORONTO -135 |
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09-24-21 | Rangers v. Orioles OVER 9 | Top | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Baltimore Orioles vs Texas Rangers @ 7:05 ET - I know the Rangers have a bad lineup and the Orioles, though decent, are not exactly juggernauts at the plate even when at home. However, no matter who pitches here I am expecting a slugfest tonight at Camden Yards. The Orioles bullpen on the season has been one of the worst in the league. The Rangers bullpen tends to struggle more on the road than at home. After yesterday's unusual 3-0 game, look for normalcy to return tonight and both teams swing the bats extremely well. The Orioles are expected to start Wells here and he is winless with an 8.65 ERA in his 3 starts this season. The Rangers are expected to start Howard here and he is winless with a 6.50 ERA as a starter this season plus has an ugly 8.53 ERA in his last 3 starts. Wells has allowed 5 homers in his last 3 starts so Texas should do some damage at the plate here. As for the Orioles, their slugging percentage in home games this season ranks 3rd in the AL behind the Red Sox and Blue Jays. That is impressive company to say the least and I expect the O's to have some solid success at the plate tonight. 10* OVER 9 in Baltimore |
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09-24-21 | Middle Tennessee State v. Charlotte OVER 56 | Top | 39-42 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
CFB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 56 in Charlotte 49ers vs Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders @ 6:30 ET - The Blue Raiders benched QB Hockman last week and his back-up Cunningham and led MTSU to a pair of late touchdowns. Granted it was too little too late but with I look for Middle Tennessee (with Cunningham at QB) to build momentum on offense after wrapping up last week's game well. Hockman has quit football so Cunningham is the guy and MTSU has not been able to run the ball well at all this season. That means we should see plenty of passing in this game. The Blue Raiders defense has allowed 31 points per game on the road and as for the 49ers, their defense allowed 437 yards last week. Definitely Charlotte should have allowed more than 20 points last week and, keep in mind, they did allow 28 points in Week 1 this season. I look for the MTSU defense to continue to struggle but their offense, rejuvenated with Cunningham under center, will perform well and lead the way to a high-scoring game. 10* OVER 56 in Charlotte |
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09-24-21 | Cardinals v. Cubs +157 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
MLB Friday 10* Top Play Chicago Cubs Money Line +157 vs St Louis Cardinals @ 2:20 ET (Game 1 of double-header) - Tough spot for the red hot Cardinals. I know that St Louis has been on fire but they had to battle back at Milwaukee last night for a big win as they rallied from an early 5-0 hole in that one. Now they take on a Cubs team in an afternoon game because this is the first of two games at Wrigley Field today. Conversely the Cubs scheduling situation is a good one as they were off yesterday plus already at home from having faced the Twins in a 2-game set earlier this week. I do not care who pitches here as this is a situational play for me and I know the Cubs will bring their A game against the rival Cardinals. So though we are talking about action on the pitchers I will quickly touch on the expected starters. Happ is 4-5 with a 7.32 ERA in road starts this season and opponents have hit .319 against him away from home. Steele does not have good numbers on the season but he truly has been much better in the month of September outside of one bad start. In the other 3 starts this month Steele has allowed only 7 hits in 14 innings. Look for a big upset here in Game 1 no matter who is on the mound in this day game Friday. 10* CHICAGO CUBS Money Line +157 |
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09-23-21 | Panthers v. Texans +8 | Top | 24-9 | Loss | -107 | 15 h 38 m | Show |
NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Houston Texans +8 vs Carolina Panthers @ 8:20 ET - This is a typical contrarian play for me. Everyone will be high on the Panthers because they demolished the Saints last week. Everyone will be down on the Texans because they lost by double digits at Cleveland last week plus they lost their starting QB to injury. Give me Houston here! For one thing they are at home and they played very well in their first game of the season here. For another thing Carolina is on the road for the first time this season. Yes they have impressed so far this season but the Panthers faced a bad Jets team in week one and then caught the Saints off a big win over Green Bay. Lets not forget the Panthers lost 9 of last 11 games last season. Carolina also went 0-2 last season when off a win in which they allowed 13 points or less. Now here the Panthers are laying 8 points in that exact situation! Houston went only 2-4 in final 6 home games last season but 3 of the 4 losses were by 6 or less points. This means if you would have had Houston plus 8 in each of their last 7 regular season home games you would have gone 6-1 ATS. We have a lot of value here with the home dog and, keep in mind, their #2 QB played his college ball in the Pac-12. It is not as if this rookie QB, Davis Mills, has not faced some tough competition in his career. He'll be ready for the big stage here especially after getting some playing time last week and now this week he is at home for this start. Texans make this one helluva game and should cover the spread along the way. I look for this game to be decided by a one-score margin. 10* HOUSTON +8 |
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09-23-21 | Marshall v. Appalachian State -7 | Top | 30-31 | Loss | -107 | 15 h 38 m | Show |
CFB 10* Top Play Appalachian State Mountaineers -7 vs Marshall Thundering Herd @ 7:30 ET - Revenge game from last season as the Mountaineers lost 17-7 at Marshall despite having an edge in first downs in the game. Look for payback to be delivered here as Appalachian State has played the tougher early season schedule and also has been the stronger defense early this season. When the Mountaineers played East Carolina they dominated and the final score could have been even more dominant as the Pirates simply got some late meaningless scoring. That same East Carolina team just faced Marshall and the late scores were far from meaningless as the Pirates got the 42-38 upset win by rallying in the 4th quarter. The way each of these teams fared against East Carolina says a lot and I like the fact that Marshall just gave up 42 while the Mountaineers are allowing an average of only 19 points per game this season. Home team rolls here and wins this one by double digits. 10* APPALACHIAN STATE -7 |
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09-23-21 | Cardinals v. Brewers -117 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -117 | 6 h 34 m | Show |
MLB 10* Thursday Top Play Milwaukee Brewers Money Line -117 vs St Louis Cardinals @ 2:10 ET - The Cardinals have won 11 straight games. The Brewers are favored here. Big mistake by odds makers, right? No. Long-time followers know how I feel about that and I am expecting a huge home win here. Wainwright certainly has been solid for the Cardinals this season including when facing the Brewers. However, Houser has been dominant against St Louis this season with 0 earned runs allowed in 14 innings. Regardless of the pitching match-up here, I do not see the Brewers getting swept at home in a 4-game series. Milwaukee bounce backs here no matter who is on the mound. The Brewers have had a great season because they have avoided long losing streaks and have only had 2 go past 4 games. Odds are this losing streak ends this afternoon! 10* MILWAUKEE -117 |
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09-23-21 | White Sox v. Indians OVER 7 | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 56 m | Show |
MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 7 runs in Cleveland (Gm 1 of DH) - Wind blowing out at a strong clip for this one. Civale rocked for 7 earned runs in 3 innings in most recent home start. Lopez rocked for 6 earned runs in 4 innings in his most recent start. The over is 6-3 in Civale home starts this season. 3 of 4 meetings between these teams at Cleveland this season have gone over the total. White Sox game on Tuesday had just 8 runs scored on 28 hits in a ridiculous under. Look for this one to make up for that as the pitching match-up is ideal. Plus, no matter the pitchers here, even though the temperature will be cool, the winds will help us in this one. The ball will carry well and Lopez gave up 2 homers in most recent start and Civale gave up 3 homers in last home start. 10* OVER 7 runs in Cleveland (Gm 1 of DH) |
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09-22-21 | Twins v. Cubs +105 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play Chicago Cubs Money Line +105 vs Minnesota Twins @ 7:40 ET - I know Joe Ryan has great numbers in his limited action so far. However, he did allow 3 earned runs in 5 innings when he faced the Cubs 3 weeks ago. Now Chicago sees him again at Wrigley Field where they are a tougher club than on the road for sure. The Cubs fell short 9-5 yesterday but have scored at least 4 runs in 9 straight games. Yes the Twins exploded for 9 runs yesterday but Minnesota had scored 3 or less runs in 5 of 8 games that preceded that rare outburst at the plate. Now they face Kyle Hendricks. I know he does not have the greatest of numbers overall but the fact is Hendricks is 14-6 as a starter this season and is known for coming up with some big starts at home. His most recent outing at home was a solid 6-inning effort versus a tough Giants team. The last time he started against the Twins he shut them out over 8 innings and dominated by allowing just 3 hits and striking out 10. That outing was last September and I look for him to come up with another strong effort here against this Minnesota team. I know Joe Ryan has pitched well so far but this is just his 4th MLB start. Look for the Cubs to do some damage here in their home park. Even with yesterday's win, the Twins still just 32-45 in road games this season and I am looking for Hendricks to improve his record to 15-6 on the season! 10* CHICAGO CUBS +105 |
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09-22-21 | Hamilton v. Ottawa +9 | Top | 24-7 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
CFL Wednesday 10* Top Play Ottawa Redblacks +8.5 vs Hamilton @ 7:30 PM ET - Yes Ottawa has been a horrible team so far this season. Definitely the worst team in the league thus far. However, they have some big edges here as they are at home and playing with extra rest and they are catching Hamilton on the road and playing on short rest. Though the Tiger-Cats defeated the Stampeders last week at home, they actually were outgained in the game and were helped greatly by turnovers. The Ti-Cats are still down to their back-up QB and the Redblacks are going to make a game of this one in my strong opinion. Hamilton will get caught looking ahead to big game with Montreal coming up next week. 10* OTTAWA +8.5 |
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09-22-21 | Nationals v. Marlins OVER 8 | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
MLB 10* Top Play OVER 8 runs in Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals @ 6:40 ET - The Marlins Elieser Hernandez is off a start in which he shut out the Pirates. However, he did not make it out of the 6th inning and he walked 5 in that start while striking out just 3. Hernandez was a bit fortunate to say the least and I feel he will not be so fortunate in this one! The Nationals are just 4-5 last 9 games but have scored 6 or more runs in 7 of last 10 games. Washington should get the job done again at the plate tonight and keep in mind they did a lot of damage against the Miami bullpen last night too. As for the Marlins lineup, look for much more success today in comparison with yesterday. The Marlins will take advantage of facing Josiah Gray in this one. The over is 3-0 in his last 3 start as Gray has a 10.80 ERA during this stretch and allowed at least 5 earned runs in each outing! The over is 5-1-1 in Marlins last 7 games and they have scored 6 or more runs in each of their last two games against a right-handed starter. 10* OVER 8 in Miami |
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09-21-21 | Mets v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Boston @ 7:10 ET - The Red Sox start Eduardo Rodriguez in this one. The right-hander is off a strong road start but got hammered in his prior start which was at home. This comes as no surprise as Rodriguez has struggled at Fenway Park consistently this season. Rodriguez has a 6.32 ERA at home this season. Marcus Stroman gets the start for the Mets in this one. Certainly Stroman has pitched well but he is facing a big test here at Fenway Park. Boston has the #1 batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage in the American League in home games this season. The Mets generally don't fare as well at the plate but facing Rodriguez certainly should help in that regard. New York is coming off a rough homestand but has scored 6 or more runs in 5 of last 9 road games. The Red Sox have been red hot at home and have won 14 of 20 games there and averaged 7.8 runs scored per game during this stretch. This is why, regardless of the pitching match-up in this one (make this wager with ACTION on the pitchers if you can), I do like the over. The trending at Fenway Park has been big for overs. 11 of the last 14 games in Boston have totaled 11 or more runs and we just need 10 to cash our ticket in this one. We have strong odds on that in my opinion. 10* OVER 9.5 in Boston |
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09-21-21 | Royals v. Indians -138 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
MLB 10* Top Play Cleveland Indians Money Line -140 @ 6:10 ET - ACTION on pitchers. Will touch on the pitching match-up here but the team edges are the key for me with this play. Indians better at home than Royals are on the road. Also, Cleveland is 47-28 against teams with losing record this season. Royals only 34-38 against teams with a losing record this season. Kansas City is 10 games below .500 in road games this season. In terms of the pitching match-up Daniel Lynch has a 9.28 ERA last 3 starts and Cal Quantrill is 4-0 with a 2.35 ERA in his dozen home starts this season. Royals are 43-60 against right-handed starters this season. 10* CLEVELAND -140 |
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09-20-21 | Lions +12 v. Packers | Top | 17-35 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 10 m | Show |
NFL Monday 10* Top Play Detroit Lions +12 - I know that the Packers are generally strong at home and should bounce back here. But for Green Bay to respond and win this game by double digits is what I am doubting. The Packers have some issues. I am not sure how cohesive this group is ever since the Aaron Rodgers off-season saga. This team just looks a bit disjointed. Undoubtedly, talent-wise Green Bay is the better team in this match-up. However, the Lions gained confidence and showed a lot of character in battling back against San Francisco last week. Yes it was a fortunate ATS cover for Detroit but that does not change the fact that it gave new QB Jared Goff and this Lions offense some confidence heading into this week's match-up. Keep in mind Green Bay was turnover-prone last week and just overall it was an ugly performance against the Saints. That said, consider that New Orleans then went on the road yesterday and looked very bad against the Panthers. As for the Niners they went on the road and beat an Eagles team that is playing inspired football early this season. The point is Detroit's cover against San Francisco might be more impressive than first realized and Green Bay's demolishing at the hands of New Orleans might be even worse than originally thought. I would not be surprised to see these teams trade scores a bit and for the Lions to hang around throughout this contest. Look for a game decided by a margin of about 7 points which means we have great value with the big points offered here. 10* DETROIT +12 |
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09-20-21 | Orioles v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 52 m | Show |
MLB Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia -1.5 +110 - I respect John Means for the Orioles. He is a very solid pitcher. However, Ranger Suarez has been dominant for the Phillies so Baltimore has no edge in the pitching department here. That said, Baltimore is really in trouble when you compare everything else too. The Phillies have the bullpen edge, lineup edge, and home field edge in this one. Of course this is why they are a big favorite of nearly 2 to 1 on the money line. Where we get our value is on the run line. Phillies actually are available at a plus money price by laying the 1.5 runs and I am looking for a dominating win in this one. Baltimore is 47-102 on the season and 82 of their 102 losses have been by 2 or more runs! The Orioles are slumping again too with losses in 7 of their last 9 games. 6 of those 7 defeats by 2+ runs. The Phillies are off a tight loss to the Mets last night but this followed 4 straight wins. Also, Philadelphia is 4-2 in home starts for Suarez and he has a 1.85 ERA in his 9 starts this season and has dominated out of the pen too. The lefty having a phenomenal season. Again, respect to Means but Suarez has been even better and all the other edges are with the Phillies in this one too and that makes this an easy anti-Baltimore call as we fade one of the worst teams in the majors. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 +110 |
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09-20-21 | Nationals v. Marlins OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 101 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
MLB Monday MLB 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Miami - Late season match-ups between two teams that are simply looking to finish out a sub-par year are the types of situations I like to look at for overs. There is no playoff pressure. The hitters come to the plate relaxed. That said, when you have a pitching match-up that should be conducive to an over in a spot like this, it is time to pull the trigger. I know the Nats Fedde has been strong against the Marlins this season but the over is 3-0 in his last 3 starts and this is still a guy who has a 5.16 ERA on the year. Miami catching him at home and seeing him for the 3rd time in 4 weeks absolutely should lead to some success at the plate in this one. At the same time, Luzardo is going up against Washington in a similar situation - 3rd time in 4 weeks - and the Nationals have been hitting him hard. Luzardo has a 6.37 ERA on the season in his 15 starts and the over is 10-5 in those outings. More of the same here as he has a 9.00 ERA against the Nats this season and also the Marlins get their fair share of runs at home in this one too. 10* OVER 8.5 in Miami |
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09-19-21 | Chiefs v. Ravens +4 | Top | 35-36 | Win | 100 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
NFL 10* Top Play Baltimore Ravens +4 - The Ravens are off a disappointing OT loss at Las Vegas on Monday Night. For all intents and purposes, their season is now over. I am being sarcastic of course but I am simply pointing out public perception here as this line has risen on the Chiefs from -2.5 point favorites to being as high as -4.5 point favorites. Keep in mind Kansas City went 14-2 SU last season but only covered 6 of the 16 games. There is a lot of value here in the home dog in this one. Baltimore is off a road loss and now back home and, keep in mind, they got the cash in 10 of their 16 games last season. KC, of course, is a great team but the public is so enamored with them that it often drives their lines too high. I strongly believe that will prove to be the case again here. Last year Mahomes outplayed Jackson and the Chiefs got a dominating road win at Baltimore last September. So everyone expects this game to be the same. The KC defense did not look good at all last week and gave up substantial yardage to the Browns both through the air and on the ground. Keep in mind, when a home dog can get their ground game going they are particularly dangerous. The Chiefs defense was at home last week and still did not look good. They are generally known for being tougher at home but that was not the case last week. That spells trouble as they now take to the road to face a Ravens team that is angry off a loss plus hell-bent on revenge from last season's home loss to these Chiefs. Keep in mind, Ravens were on a 6-0 ATS run prior to losing to the Raiders last week. Look for them to get back into the SU win column here but I will gladly grab the points as added insurance here as well. 10* BALTMORE +4 |
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09-19-21 | Phillies +111 v. Mets | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 59 m | Show |
MLB 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies +110 - DO NOT CARE WHO PITCHES. The Phillies have won 4 straight games. Conversely, the Mets have been on the fade for awhile now. New York has lost 5 straight games and 8 of last 11. I will touch on the pitchers here but, again, I am recommending ACTION on the pitchers and feel strongly that the hotter lineup and better overall team gets it done again in this one. Kyle Gibson has struggled recently but he held the Mets to just 1 earned run in 6 innings last month and New York is simply a team lacking confidence at this point. That starts to show up in how the hitters approach their at-bats too and I look for the Phillies to get a big early lead here which will further help Gibson in that regard. Rich Hill gets the start for New York here. Mets are 0-2 in his last two starts and he struggled in most recent one against Cardinals. Hill has decent numbers last 3 starts but 2 of those were against a bad Marlins team and a slumping Nationals team. Look for the road team to roll in this one. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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09-19-21 | Falcons v. Bucs OVER 50.5 | Top | 25-48 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
10* Top Play OVER 50.5 in Tampa Bay - The Falcons got embarrassed last week by the Eagles. Their defense here stands no chance against this Bucs offensive machine. Tampa Bay looked great on offense against the Cowboys on opening night. However, the Buccaneers defense certainly had some issues against Dallas. I am well aware of the fact that Atlanta scored only 6 points last week and this week they must throw the ball much more than they did against the Eagles. Too many rushing attempts were getting them nowhere against the Philadelphia defense. Forced to play catch up again this week, look for the Falcons to be much more focused on an aerial attack against TB in this one. The Tampa Bay defense was on its heels some against Dallas and Matt Ryan is a veteran QB whom I expect to be better this week after a tough effort versus Philly. Still adjusting to life without Julio Jones but Atlanta does have some weapons. Tampa Bay threw the ball 50 times last week and only ran it 14 times. With Falcons forced to play catch up in this game (double digit dog for a reason) they will be forced to throw a lot too. That said, games with heavy passing tend to be high-scoring and I like the downward line move on this total as it was even higher before coming down a little. I look for this game to get into the upper 50s. Look for a 35 to 24 type game here at a minimum. 10* OVER 50.5 in Tampa Bay |
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09-19-21 | Chelsea -140 v. Tottenham Hotspur | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
EPL 10* Top Play Chelsea -140 - Tottenham has 3 wins thus far and just 1 loss. However, the 3 victories for the Hotspur were each just by a 1-0 count. The lone loss was a 3-0 drubbing at the hands of Crystal Palace last week. Tottenham also did not perform well outside Premier League action this week and suffered a couple injuries. Unlike the Hotspur, Chelsea continues to roll like a well-oiled machine under Thomas Tuchel and I do not see them being denied here. We get line value because Chelsea is on the home pitch of Tottenham for this one. That means we get a reasonable money line price on the superior club because they are the travelers here. Chelsea has outscored their foes 9 to 1 on the campaign. This opportunity just too good to pass up. I respect Tottenham for sure but they will struggle with the suffocating defense of Chelsea and, at the other end of the pitch, I look for the visitors to find the back of the net a pair of times at least to secure the victory. 10* CHELSEA -140 |
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09-19-21 | Manchester United v. West Ham United OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 34 m | Show |
EPL 9* Top Play OVER 2.5 in West Ham United - Manchester United and West Ham have been two of the highest scoring clubs in the league thus far. Look for more of the same here. Manchester United is ready to go on the attack here after a disappointing 2-1 loss to the Young Boys outside premier league activity in their most recent match. Man U has a long unbeaten streak in road matches but faces a West Ham club that is firing on all cylinders right now. Even though West Ham will be without Antonio here, the hosts have plenty of firepower and I do not see either club delivering a clean sheet in this one. Also, both teams hungry for the full 3 points in the table and will not settle for a draw and a sharing of the spoils. That said, look for at least a 2-1 final here and this cashes our ticket. 9* OVER 2.5 in West Ham United |
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09-18-21 | Winnipeg v. Edmonton Elks +7 | Top | 37-22 | Loss | -104 | 17 h 42 m | Show |
CFL Saturday 10* Top Play Edmonton +7 - The Elks are starting back-up QB. I am well aware of this but, at home and with solid running skills, Taylor Cornelius is going to be a pleasant surprise. Getting a full +7 with Edmonton at home is a huge value. The Elks have been very strong statistically this season and should have a better record. They have a solid defense and added another key piece to that defense with a recent star acquisition. This team solid on both sides of the ball and they catch Winnipeg off a key divisional win over Saskatchewan. The set up here is perfect for a home dog upset. Yes the Blue Bombers have been very solid early this season but laying a full 7 on the road against a quality home team is simply too much. Yes the Elks Cornelius is making his first start at QB but he has solid QB skills and there is a big difference between making your first ever start at home comparted to on the road. He is going to have a solid game and this defense for the Elks also keys a very tight game decided by a single score margin in my strong estimation. 10* EDMONTON +7 |
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09-18-21 | Tulane v. Ole Miss OVER 76 | Top | 21-61 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 76 in Ole Miss Rebels vs Tulane Green Wave @ 8 ET - Huge total posted on this game. I know this might make it seem risky but this is simply not the case when you consider the potency of these two offenses and the fact that both defense have big-time question marks too. Tulane averaging 52 points per game this season and Ole Miss averaging 48.5 points per game so far this season. Both teams like to play fast on offense. This game should have a very fast pace and the defenses will wear down as the game goes on. Yes Tulane played a weak team last week but their first game was at Oklahoma and they put up 35 points but allowed 40. Ole Miss looks as potent as ever on offense but don't be fooled by their early season point totals allowed on defense. They faced an FCS team, Austin Peay, last week. Also, the Rebels were fortunate the prior week as they held Louisville to just 24 points but the Cardinals missed a number of scoring chances early in the game which completely changed the complexion of this game. With the potency of the Green Wave attack, as well as that of the Rebels, don't look for many missed opportunities offensively in this one. It should turn into a back and forth very high-scoring shootout! Ole Miss has a bye on deck and then faces Alabama. The Rebels will not hold back here as they can rest up next weekend courtesy of the bye. That means a relentless Ole Miss attack could get into the 50s here but I expect the Green Wave to also hang around in this one. With this line at two TD's don't be surprised if we see a 51-37 type game in this one. That still clears this total by double digits and that is why this is a top play for me! 10* OVER in Ole Miss |
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09-18-21 | Auburn v. Penn State -5 | Top | 20-28 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Penn State Nittany Lions -5 - Not only has Penn State won at Wisconsin, the big win they had over Ball State means they did defeat the MAC Champions of a year ago quite handily. Granted Auburn is a very strong SEC team but this game is at Happy Valley where PSU is known for being a tough team to face. The Nittany Lions hold a key edge here too and that is the fact that the Tigers QB has struggled on the road. While the Auburn QB has solid overall numbers in his career, the positive production has come at home whereas on the road Bo Nix has thrown as many picks as touchdowns. It is no wonder the Tigers have had some road struggles during his time under center. Long term this Auburn team has only covered 32% of the time the last 25 times they have been a road dog. Look for Penn State to carry momentum from their strong start to the season right into this game. This is a night game at Beaver Stadium and the crowd will be roaring with the ESPN cameras on hand. The Nittany Lions defense returned the majority of key contributors from last season's team and I look for this D to make things very tough on Nix and the Tigers offense as his long-term road struggles continue. The line from a 7 down to a 5 is leading to solid line value here as well! 10* PENN STATE -5 |
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09-18-21 | Phillies -111 v. Mets | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
MLB 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -110 - DO NOT CARE WHO PITCHES. The Phillies have won 3 straight games. Also, Philadelphia has won 3 of last 4 road games when facing a right-handed starter. Conversely, the Mets have been on the fade for awhile now. New York has lost 4 straight games and 7 of last 10. I will touch on the pitchers here but, again, I am recommending ACTION on the pitchers and feel strongly that the hotter lineup and better overall team gets it done again in this one. Aaron Nola has a 2.51 ERA last 3 starts versus Mets and has struck out 24 in 14 and 1/3 innings in those outings. He is 8-3 in his career when starting against the Mets. Carlos Carrasco gets the start for New York here. He has a 6.66 ERA this season in home starts. Carrasco has decent numbers last 3 starts but 2 of those were against a bad Marlins team and Miami did hit him hard in one of the two outings. Look for the road team to roll in this one. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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09-18-21 | Everton v. Aston Villa OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 107 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
EPL Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 goals in Aston Villa - Everton has been rolling big-time under new direction of a former Liverpool manager. They have piled up goals with their new attack and are averaging 2.5 goals per match. This will be an intriguing fixture however because Aston Villa is on their home pitch and certainly not going to back down here. Aston Villa is averaging 1.5 goals per match this season as a host. Last season Aston Villa also averaged 1.5 goals per match. We are getting some line value here because Everton was not a high-scoring club last season but they are a different club this season since changing managers. This should be a highly entertaining match as both clubs will be aggressive on the attack. Everton, as the travelers here, will look to force the issue on the road and I look for their attacking style to lead to a high-scoring match here. 10* OVER 2.5 goals in Aston Villa |
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09-17-21 | Mariners v. Royals OVER 9 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
NOTE: Jon Heasley, called up from AA Northwest Arkansas is now expected to get the start for the Royals in this one as Brady Singer was placed on the injured list. As noted in my original write-up, I do not care who pitches here. This is a TOP PLAY OVER no matter who the starting pitchers are: MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 9 runs in Kansas City - The Royals burned me last night as the over 9.5 totaled just 9 runs and cost me a 5-0 sweep. We should get some payback right here coming right back with the over. This time Kansas City is hosting the Mariners. Note that Seattle is entering this game on run of 12-0 to the over their last dozen games. No matter who pitches here I look for the over to cash in this game so try to play this at a sports book that does not list pitchers on totals. The Mariners have scored an average of 5.3 runs per game last dozen games. The Royals, prior to last night's 7-2 loss to the A's, had scored an average of 6 runs per game last dozen games. This is why pitchers are not so important even on totals. How hot a lineup is really matters and both these teams, last night notwithstanding for KC, have been getting the job done in that regard. The expected starters, again I do not care who starts, are Flexen and Singer. Note that Flexen has a 5.40 ERA in last 3 starts and the over is 10-2 in his road starts this season. Singer is 4-10 with a 4.85 ERA this season and just got rocked in his most recent start. More of the same expected here. 10* OVER 9 in Kansas City |
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09-17-21 | Central Florida v. Louisville +7 | Top | 35-42 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
CFB Friday 10* Top Play Louisville +7 - The Cardinals lost to an Ole Miss team in week 1 that has certainly looked very sharp early this season. I feel we have great home dog value here as a result. Yes the Rebels proved very tough on the Louisville defense in week 1 but they were one of the best offenses in the nation last year. Yes the Knights are a fantastic offense too but the Cards were more competitive in week 1 than the final score showed. They had chances to put points on the board early and did not and the game got away from them after that. I don't see that happening again here. Central Florida is not the exact same powerhouse when they are on the road and this game is going to be a challenge for them. I would argue that Louisville has the better defense in this match-up plus the better special teams units overall and when you add that to home field edge plus getting about a full TD here as a dog I like my chances with the hosts here. Look for UCF to drop to 4-8 ATS that last dozen times they have been a road favorite. It has not shown up yet from an ATS standpoint but this Cardinals team is improved this season but flying under the radar due to an 0-2 ATS start. The result is line value in this spot. 10* LOUISVILLE +7 |
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09-17-21 | Phillies -138 v. Mets | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
MLB Friday 9* Top Play Philadelphia -138 - No matter who pitches here I like the Phillies to get the road win. Philadelphia is riding the momentum of a huge win yesterday. They were down 7-0 early and yet not only rallied for the win, they crushed the Cubs 17 to 8! The Phillies have the better lineup and swept the Mets by a combined score of 12 to 5 when these teams met last month in Philly. New York enters this game struggling on a 3-game losing streak and having lost 6 of 8 overall. The expected pitchers (again I do not care who pitches, go with action on the pitchers) are Wheeler and Walker. Note that Wheeler has dominated the Mets this season including 2-0 with 16 scoreless innings while striking out 18 in last two match-ups against them. Wheeler also enters this start on fire overall with 1 runs allowed in 13 innings while striking out 17 over his last two starts. Walker is struggling bad with 11 runs allowed in less than 11 innings of work over his past two starts. 9* PHILADELPHIA -138 |
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09-17-21 | Calgary +2.5 v. Hamilton | Top | 17-23 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
CFL Friday 10* Top Play Calgary Stampeders +2.5 - I absolutely do respect the Tiger-Cats defense. However, they have a major issue at QB. They lost starting QB Dane Evans to injury last week and now they are starting a guy, David Watford, who has hardly played at the CFL level. This is no disrespect to him but just saying it is going to be a difficult situation for him. For Calgary, the situation is completely different. Not only is Bo Levi Mitchell back, the other QB that had filled in him for was fantastic. Jake Maier can step right if Mitchell got hurt again. The point is that right now the Stampeders have two healthy quarterbacks that are both better than the Tiger-Cats current starting QB. Losing Evans really hurts this team. I look for the Stamps to build off last week's dominating win at Edmonton and get another big road win here. Note that Hamilton is still over-valued because of their success in the 2019 season. This Ti-Cats team simply is not the same team right now. They are likely to struggle to score points here. 10* CALGARY +2.5 |
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09-17-21 | Leeds United v. Newcastle United OVER 2.75 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
EPL Friday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 goals in Newcastle - Both these clubs conceding goals in bunches so far in this campaign. In fact, Leeds and Newcastle are the two worst clubs in the league thus far in terms of goals allowed. That is one key factor here and then there is this one too: Leeds had no draws in 19 league road matches last season. So if each club scores at least once and Leeds is unwilling to settle for a draw (odds certainly favor that) then you can expect to see at least a 2-1 final here. The fact is Leeds likes to attack and is willing to risk defensive shortcomings by being aggressive on the attack. With that said, we should see plenty of scoring here. Newcastle showed some fight in their battle with Manchester United last week and I certainly see them having some success against the leaky defense of Leeds. That said, we have a ton of value with this total in the 2.5 range. Newcastle's home matches averaged totaling 3 goals last season and Leeds road matches averaged totaling 3.5 goals last season. I am expecting quite an entertaining match here. 10* OVER 2.5 goals in Newcastle |
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09-16-21 | Giants +3.5 v. Washington Football Team | Top | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 16 h 42 m | Show |
NFL 10* Top Play New York Giants +3.5 - Remember at the end of last season when the Eagles former head coach Doug Pederson seemingly surrendered the last game of the season when it was very important to the Giants playoff chances? That game did not directly involve New York but it did directly involve Washington and it ended up handing the NFC East title to the Football Team rather than the Giants. Soon New York will have their chance at payback over the Eagles but, first things first, the Giants get a shot at the team that took the NFC East title over them last year. I like New York's chances to get some payback here! Washington will have their #2 QB going here as Heinicke gets the start because Fitzpatrick going to be out some time now with a hip injury. He will probably miss 6 to 8 weeks and Heinicke is now the guy. Though he has shown some flashes of strong play he is still rather inexperienced at the NFL level and there is a reason coach Ron Rivera had selected Fitzpatrick as the starter of course. Look for the Giants defense to force some errors on Heinicke's part in this one. Both teams off losses last week but Washington was statistically dominated while the stats differential in the Giants game showed slimmer margins. I also like the fact that New York has won 5 straight games over Washington and look for that to reach 6 in a row here. 10* NEW YORK GIANTS +3.5 |