Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-04-19 | Yankees v. Rays OVER 9 | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #917 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees @ 5:10 ET - The Yankees won again (5-1) yesterday and they continue red hot at the plate as they again reached double digits in hits. The Yankees have now won 14 of their past 16 games and have scored an average of 7.6 runs per game during this hot streak! The Rays aren't known for their hitting prowess but I like their chances against an inconsistent JA Happ. Also, Tampa Bay lost 9-6 yesterday but that marked the 11th time in 13 games that the Rays have scored at least 4 runs. Keep in mind, with today's total posted at a 9, we only need each team to get to 4 runs to guarantee us of a non-losing ticket as the game would have to end at least 5-4. The fact is I am expecting much more than that here in terms of runs scored. The Rays have scored an average of 5.8 runs per game in their last 5 games and Happ has a 9.00 ERA in his last 3 starts and has continually been hit hard. Tampa Bay is starting Yonny Chirinos in this one. The TB right-hander has nearly as many walks as strikeouts in his last two starts. Also, in his two starts against the Yankees he has allowed 3 earned runs each time. Having just seen him a couple of weeks ago, the Yanks lineup is likely to enjoy even more success in the rematch today. Happ only allowed 2 earned runs to the Rays when he faced them two weeks ago but he did allow 7 hits in 5 innings and that was in the Bronx. In 2 of his last 3 starts at Tropicana Field he has been roughed up and that is where today's start is. The over is 3-0-1 in the Rays last 4 games. New York is off back to back unders in their IL series with the Mets but the Yankees entered that series on a 15-5 run to the over and their sticks have remained hot. The over is 25-10 in Yanks road games this season! 10* OVER the total in Tampa Bay |
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07-03-19 | Phillies v. Braves OVER 10.5 | Top | 2-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #957 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 7:20 ET - The lowest scoring game on the board yesterday was this match-up which ended up a 2-0 Phillies win thanks to a brilliant start from Aaron Nola. After that pitchers duel now we've got the perfect set up for a slugfest on Wednesday as Nick Pivetta squares off with Bryse Wilson. Philadelphia's Pivetta has an ugly 7.13 ERA over his last 3 starts and he has allowed 7 homers during this stretch. As for Atlanta's Wilson, he has an 8.31 ERA in limited action this season. He is very early in his MLB career but already Wilson has proven to struggle at this level. In 6 games (3 starts) the Braves right-hander has been been hit at a .306 clip at the MLB level. The Phillies, prior to scoring just 2 runs yesterday, had averaged 7.4 runs per game in their 7 prior games. The Braves, prior to being shutout yesterday, had won 17 of their last 23 games and averaged scoring 6.7 runs per game. The over is 3-0 in Pivetta's last 3 starts against the Braves and he got crushed in each of the last two. Wilson got crushed in his starts versus the Phillies earlier this season and the over is perfect in his starts this season. The Braves are 22-12 this season as a favorite of -125 to -175. In Braves home games with a posted total of 10 or 10.5 runs, the over is 5-2 this season. Philadelphia, prior to yesterday's shutout, had allowed 5 or more runs in 12 of their past 16 games! Atlanta, prior to getting a sharp start from Dallas Keuchel yesterday, had allowed 8 or more runs in 4 of their past 9 games. A slugfest on tap in this one. 10* OVER the total in Atlanta |
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07-02-19 | Astros v. Rockies OVER 13 | Top | 9-8 | Win | 100 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #927 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Houston Astros @ 8:10 ET - Jose Urquidy will be making his MLB debut for the Astros. The Houston right-hander is known for having great control but also known for not having overwhelming stuff in terms of his repertoire of pitches and their movement. That being said, making an MLB debut at Coors Field without having dominating stuff even in normal pitching conditions, this is unlikely to go well for Urquidy. Note that the Rockies last 8 home games have produced 7 overs and just 1 under. In these 8 games at Colorado, the Rockies have scored an average of 10 runs per game but also allowed an average of 10 runs per game! The home side is starting German Marquez in this one. The right-hander has been hit at a .314 clip at Coors Field this season and has produced a 5.70 ERA in his 9 starts here. Marquez had similar struggles at home last season with a 4.74 ERA and being hit at a .284 clip in Denver. I also like the fact that his ERA has been rising higher with each month this season. Last month Marquez compiled a 6.60 ERA in his five starts. The over is 5-2 this season when Houston is off a win over a division rival in which they allowed 1 run or less. Also, the Astros are 10-3 to the over in Tuesday games this season. Colorado is 18-8 to the over this season as a home favorite of -110 or more. After a game in which they allowed double digits in runs scored, the Rockies are 9-2 to the over this season. More of the same on tap in what should be another wild one at Coors Field Tuesday evening. 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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07-01-19 | Cubs v. Pirates OVER 9.5 | Top | 5-18 | Win | 100 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #951 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs @ 7:05 ET - Adbert Alzolay has made two appearances thus far for the Cubs and he has been successful. However, this will be just his 2nd start at the MLB level and his first ever appearance on the road. Also, let us not forget that this is a guy whom last season and this season combined has a 4.40 ERA at the minor league level. In other words, as strong as he has been thus far, it has been very limited action for sure at the MLB level and I am predicting a regression to the mean begins today. Look for Alzolay to struggle Monday at Pittsburgh. The Pirates are off a tough series at the plate at Milwaukee. However, prior to struggling to score runs against the Brewers, Pittsburgh had averaged 6.7 runs per game in their 15 previous games. Look for the Bucs to get back on track as they return home for this series with the Cubs. As for Chicago, they have defeated Trevor Williams in 5 of his 6 career starts against him. The Cubs have a number of hitters in their lineup whom have enjoyed success against the Pirates right-hander. Williams will be dealing with a Cubs team that has scored 6 or more runs in 3 of their last 4 games. Williams has allowed 11 earned runs in the 12 innings spanning his last two starts. Also, on the season, Williams has a 6.00 ERA in his home starts with 3 of the 4 going over the total. Look for the Cubs hitters to start the new week off with a bang! This is the 10th Monday game this season for Chicago and so far the Cubs have had only 1 under this season in a Monday game! The Pirates are 18-9 to the over this season in games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. Pittsburgh is 11-4 to the over this season when they are at home and priced as an underdog of +100 or higher. The over is 6-0-1 in Pirates Monday games this season. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh |
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07-01-19 | Toronto v. Saskatchewan -10 | Top | 7-32 | Win | 100 | 14 h 10 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #688 Monday 10* Top Play Saskatchewan Roughriders (-) vs Toronto Argonauts @ 7 ET - This line was up near 14 when lines first came out. It is now down to 10 as of early game day morning and I love the value with the home favorite here. Yes, the Roughriders are 0-2 to start the season but this is their first home game of the new season. Also, the teams that Saskatchewan lost to are now a combined 5-0 on the season and the Riders lost each game by just a single possession. Toronto, on the other hand, has played only one game but they got absolutely annihilated by a 50 point margin and that was on their home field no less. Keep in mind, the Argonauts went 0-9 SU in road games last season! Even in their miracle season in 2017 that saw them come together at just the right time for a Grey Cup title, the Argos went 3-6 in regular season road games. Simply put, Toronto is not a good road team and Saskatchewan is arguably the toughest place to play in the league. That said, I expect this one to get ugly quick and, with how angry the Roughriders are, the home team is not going to take their foot off the gas in this one. That is bad news for a Toronto defense that allowed a TD on SEVEN straight possessions during last week's embarrassing loss. The Argonauts are on a 4-9 ATS run as a road underdog. The Roughriders went a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS the past two seasons when they entered a game off consecutive SU losses. This one has home blowout written all over it as Cody Fajardo played very well last week in place of injured starting QB Zach Collaros and Fajardo and Company will slice and dice this Argos defense while Toronto's futility on offense allows the Riders defense to shine in this one at home. 10* SASKATCHEWAN |
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06-30-19 | Dodgers v. Rockies OVER 13.5 | Top | 10-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 5 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #907 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 3:10 ET - Congrats to Rockies starting pitcher Chi Chi Gonzalez on making it all the way back from Tommy John surgery. He is coming off his first start at the MLB level since 2016. Though he allowed only 3 earned runs in that outing it was against a light-hitting Giants team and it was in pitcher-friendly San Francisco. Also, it is not as if he had a great outing as he allowed 6 hits plus walked 4 in just 5 innings of work. Now he faces the slugging Dodgers at the most hitter-friendly ballpark in baseball. Look for Gonzalez to struggle this afternoon at Coors Field. Keep in mind, prior to his MLB season debut versus SF, he was pitching in the minors this season. Gonzalez compiled a 5.66 ERA at the minor league level this season. In other words, he was very far from being dominant even when facing minor league hitters. Now he faces one of the toughest major league lineups in the game. Look for this one to get ugly for him fast. I know yesterday's game stayed well under the total but Kershaw went 7 innings and Gray went 6 and 2/3 innings. That means the teams combined to use just 3 and 1/3 innings of bullpen and that helped keep the total under. The fact is neither of these starts is likely to last long. Kenta Maeda has enjoyed some surprising success against the Rockies, even at Coors Field, in his career. However, I feel strongly it all catches up with him here as his road stats long-term tell the full story. Maeda has a 5.67 ERA on the road this season. Last season his home and road stats were about the same but in 2017 the Dodgers right-hander had a 5.62 ERA on the road. He is known for struggling away from home and the Rockies enter this game having averaged scoring 10.6 runs per game in their last 7 home games! They'll explode in this one and, keep in mind, prior to yesterday's low-scoring Rockies win the last 6 games here had averaged a total of 22 runs scored per game. Yes the total is a 13.5 on this one but don't let the big number scare you away as another slug-fest is on tap this afternoon at Coors Field. 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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06-29-19 | Mariners v. Astros OVER 9.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 105 | 15 h 14 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #975 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners @ 8:15 ET - It may seem surprising to see a 9.5 posted on a total that involves Justin Verlander pitching at home in Houston. Of course long-time followers know that when something may look a little unusual I am one to fade market perception and be a contrarian. On that note, even with Verlander on the mound and the fact yesterday's 10-inning affair totaled only 3 runs, I am on the over in a big way in this one. For one thing, Verlander has allowed 7 homers in his last 3 starts. Also, this will be the 3rd time this season that the Mariners are getting a crack at Verlander and I look for the 3rd time to be the charm. The first two match-ups this season were in Seattle and Verlander held the upper hand. This one, however, is at Minute Maid Park and the last time Verlander faced the Mariners here was in August. The veteran right-hander got rocked for 6 earned runs in just 2 innings as he allowed 7 hits including 3 homers! Don't be surprised when Seattle enjoys some success at the plate in this one. As for the Astros sticks, they should pound Yusei Kikuchi as he has a 5.62 ERA in his last 3 starts and that could easily be even worse. Kikuchi has allowed nearly 2 base runners per inning in his last 3 outings! The over is an incredible 14-1-2 in Kikuchi's 17 starts this season! Prior to yesterday's under, the over was 4-1 in the Astros previous 5 games. The Mariners are 11-1-1 to the over in Saturday games this season! Also, Seattle is overall 55-25 to the over on the season - with 5 pushes - and that strong high-scoring trending resumes today after yesterday's rare low-scoring result. 10* OVER the total in Houston |
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06-29-19 | BC v. Calgary UNDER 53.5 | Top | 32-36 | Loss | -106 | 15 h 33 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #686 Saturday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Calgary Stampeders vs BC Lions @ 7 ET - The over cashed in plenty in Weeks 1 and 2 of this CFL season but we've now seen 2 straight unders here in Week 3 and I am forecasting another one on Saturday evening in Alberta. The last 5 meetings between these teams have all resulted in an under. Additionally, 4 of the last 5 meetings between these teams in Calgary have resulted in an under. Yes the over is 2-0 in Lions games this season and the Stamps only game thus far also went over the total. However, I see both teams emphasizing the ground game more in this one and also I expect a huge defensive effort from both teams. The Stampeders let one get away in their week one loss. The defense feels responsibility for that as they were up by 12 after just 1 quarter and couldn't get the job done. Additionally, Calgary got outscored 11-0 in the 4th quarter of that game. Look for the defending champs, having taken advantage of the bye week, to come up with a much stronger effort defensively in this game plus to do a lit bit more "grinding of the clock" by utilizing the ground game more in this one. BC is off to a tough start this season as prized offseason acquisition QB Mike Reilly has struggled. The Lions know they need to take some pressure off him by utilizing their ground game a little bit more. BC also knows that the Stamps D proved susceptible to the run in their week one loss. That said, we're going to see some ground game from both teams in this one and that will help it stay under the rather inflated number on this one. The last 5 meetings between these teams have averaged a total of only 41 points. Prior to the Stampeders surprising week one result, the O/U was on a 4-16 run in Stamps games in the month of June. As for the Lions, prior to last week's over, the O/U was on a 4-9 run when BC was off a loss to a divisional foe in the prior week. Look for those trends to resume here as the 6th straight under occurs between these teams on Saturday. 10* UNDER the total in Calgary |
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06-28-19 | Montreal v. Hamilton -12.5 | Top | 10-41 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #684 Friday 10* Top Play Hamilton Tiger-Cats (-) vs Montreal Alouettes @ 7:30 ET - The Als managed to rally for the cover in their week one ATS win in a 7 point loss at Edmonton. The Eskimos did have a big lead in that game but then relaxed some and Montreal got back into it. The Alouettes will face a much tougher challenge here because the Tiger-Cats regular season home finale (and fan appreciation day) was ruined by a loss to the Als in early November last year. How did Montreal do it? The situation was helped by the fact that it was a meaningless game for the Ti-Cats as their post-season position for the following week was already set. All the same, Hamilton has been thinking plenty about that loss as they have been preparing for this rematch opportunity. The odds makers hung a 14 on this game but bettors have knocked it down a bit. That has led to value on the hungry and undefeated home favorite here. Hamilton is 2-0 and rolling early this season while the Alouettes organization entered this campaign in full disarray with a late head coaching change (right before the season) among other distractions. Keep in mind, prior to that loss to the Als in the most recent meeting, the 3 prior games had seen Hamilton win all 3 by an average margin of victory of 33 points! Another bloodbath likely here! Montreal is 3-16 SU in their last 19 road games. As for the Tiger-Cats covering the big number here, note that they are 6-2 ATS the last 8 times they have been a home favorite in a range of 10.5 to 14 points. 10* HAMILTON |
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06-28-19 | Cubs v. Reds OVER 9 | Top | 3-6 | Push | 0 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #901 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs @ 7:10 ET - The Reds Sonny Gray and the Cubs Cole Hamels both have solid ERA numbers on the season. However, Gray has allowed 2 homers in each of his last two starts. Also, when he faced the Cubs last month the Reds right-hander also allowed 2 homers. Hamels allowed 8 hits (including 2 homers) in less than 7 innings of work the last time he faced the Reds. Also, he enters this start off an outing in which he also allowed 2 homers. Gray has a 6.00 ERA in his last 3 starts overall and Hamels, despite recent success, could struggle here at a very hitter-friendly park on a night when the ball will be carrying very well based on the weather forecast. The ball should be jumping off the bats on a very hot evening at Great American Ball Park. The Reds are happy to be back home after scoring just 1 run in each of the final two games of their road trip. Prior to that Cincinnati had scored an average of 6 runs per game in their 8 prior games! As for the Cubs, they're off a huge 9-7 win yesterday. Chicago has averaged scoring 5.3 runs per game their past 9 games. The over is 15-9 this season when the Cubs are facing a team with a losing record. Also, the over is 10-5 this season in Chicago's road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. Look for the over to improve to 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these divisional foes. 10* OVER the total in Cincinnati |
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06-27-19 | Dodgers v. Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 12-8 | Win | 100 | 17 h 26 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #957 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:40 PM ET - Hot weather in Denver today and the ball is going to be carrying very well in this one tonight. The result is excellent line value with the over in this one. Yes the posted total on this one is big but, with conditions like this tonight as well as a very favorable pitching match-up for the hitters, this one will have runs aplenty. The Dodgers are starting Walker Buehler in this one and this will be the 3rd time he has faced them this season. Yes he has had success thus far but look for the 3rd time to be the charm for the Rockies hitters. Last week's Buehler start was at Dodger Stadium and when he faced Colorado in early April that start was at Coors Field but with weather conditions completely unlike what will be seen tonight. The Rockies are averaging 7 runs per game at home this season. But the Colorado bullpen ERA at home is a 5.76 this season. That said the Dodgers hitters are poised for a big night at the plate too. Not only did they just face Peter Lambert last week in LA, now they get a shot at him in hitter-friendly Denver where Lambert has allowed 9 earned runs in just 8 innings spanning his two starts there. The over is a perfect 3-0 in Lambert's last 3 starts. The over is 7-3 in Colorado's Thursday games this season. The over is 23-13-1 in Rockies home games this season. With yesterday's over (Dodgers were at Arizona), note that Los Angeles has had just 2 unders in their last 9 games. All the over trending stays HOT in this one. 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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06-27-19 | Edmonton v. Winnipeg UNDER 58.5 | Top | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 17 h 40 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #682 Thursday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Winnipeg Blue Bombers vs Edmonton Eskimos @ 8:30 ET - With all 3 games flying over the total last week as well as the fact that 5 of the last 6 meetings between these teams in Winnipeg have gone over the total, we're seeing a lot of upward movement on this total. It is up to a 58.5 and I feel we're getting great line value here with the under as a result. This is a divisional battle. Edmonton has allowed 25 points or less in each of their first two games this season. Winnipeg was off last week so their D is well rested and they allowed only 23 points in their Week 1 victory over BC. So with a total in the upper 50s and the fact both these teams have proven the ability to run the ball and both teams having proven they can play some defense too, this one has the makings of a solid under. Note that 4 of Edmonton's last 5 games as a road dog in a range of 3.5 to 7 points have resulted in an under. Also, the under has cashed in an incredible 27 of 35 times when the Eskimos are on the road in a game with a posted total of 56 points or more. This, of course, is the Blue Bombers first time this season coming off a bye week. That is a situation that saw the under go a PERFECT 4-0 the past two seasons. Take advantage of the big number here and look for this one fall well short of it. 10* UNDER the total in Winnipeg |
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06-26-19 | Nationals v. Marlins OVER 7.5 | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #907 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals @ 7:10 ET - A lot of value here with low total posted on this game. I understand the low number of 7.5 (some odds makers opened up at 8) because Patrick Corbin had a great start versus the Marlins earlier this season and Zac Gailen had a great MLB debut last week. However, lets dive into the facts a little deeper and you can see why I am fading the line move on this one. The Nationals Corbin now has to pitch at Miami this time (first meeting was in DC) and the last time he pitched at Marlins Park he was rocked for 6 runs (5 earned) in 5 innings while allowing 3 homers! Corbin has a 5.82 ERA in his last 3 starts overall and a 5.91 ERA in road starts this season. The Marlins Gailen faced the team that drafted him (St Louis) last week so that was an emotional MLB debut for him. Yes he was successful in his 5 inning stint but it took 99 pitches to complete the 5 innings. The bullpen then imploded in that game and cost him a win. On that note, lets talk about these bullpens for a moment. The Nationals are the WORST bullpen in the majors this season based on team ERA and the Marlins certainly are NOT much better. That said, we've got a total of 7.5 in a game in which it wouldn't be a surprise if both starters got hit pretty hard and then weak bullpens also come into play. Note that the Nationals have won 7 of their last 10 games and have scored an average of 6.2 runs per game in doing so. Miami had won 6 of their last 9 games before yesterday's ugly loss and the Marlins had averaged 5 runs per game in winning 4 straight prior to that defeat. Look for the over to improve to 4-0 in Corbin's last 4 road starts. 10* OVER the total in Miami |
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06-25-19 | Rays -113 v. Twins | Top | 4-9 | Loss | -113 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #969 Tuesday MLB 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (-) vs Minnesota Twins @ 8:10 ET - It looks "easy" here to take the Twins at home. Long-time followers know what that means for me. In typical contrarian fashion I am grabbing the "hidden value" with the Rays in this one. Yes, Minnesota is tied with the Yankees for most wins in the American League. However, the Rays are right up there with the Twins in terms of best road record in the majors so far this season. That said, I like the small road favorite price here. Like I said, many will be attracted to the home dog Twins here since Minnesota has fared well against left-handed starters this season and since the Rays Blake Snell has struggled in 3 of his last 4 starts. However, let us not forget that the odds makers are often the sharpest people in the room. This line is set this way with good reason and I like Tampa Bay in this one. Snell is fully capable of spinning a game here as he also has plenty of extra rest after short starts in each of his last two outings. The Twins Kyle Gibson also certainly has proven to be shaky of late. Yes he had a great outing two starts ago but that was against a Royals team that is one of the worst in the majors. In his other two most recent starts, Gibson has allowed 11 earned runs in just 9 and 1/3 innings. The Minnesota right-hander has a team record of 3-6 in his 9 career starts against TB and he has compiled a 5.22 ERA versus the Rays. Snell has a 3.60 ERA in his last two starts against the Twins and both were against Gibson. The Rays won the first one but lost the next one. Now it is payback time for Snell and the Rays in this one. 10* TAMPA BAY |
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06-25-19 | Rangers v. Tigers OVER 9.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #967 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Tigers vs Texas Rangers @ 7:10 ET - The Rangers and Tigers feature two of the worst bullpens in the majors based on both opponents batting average and team ERA for their respective bullpen work. Certainly that could prove to be an issue here but Texas right-hander Jesse Chavez is making his first "real start" since July of 2017. What I mean by "real start" is that he has been used as an "opener" this season but those are truly short stints. This is the first time Texas is using him in hopes of getting 5 or 6 innings out of him as a starter. That said, he may struggle the 2nd time through a lineup and also could struggle early in this start too. Why? Well he has allowed 7 earned runs on 15 hits in less than 11 innings of work in his last two starts at Comerica Park. The good news for Rangers fans here is that the Tigers starter is also likely to struggle. Jordan Zimmerman just recently returned from injury and certainly he was not sharp in his first start back. Detroit is now 0-5 in Zimmerman's last 5 starts and the over is a perfect 5-0 in those starts. That is due in large part to the fact that Zimmerman is 0-4 in those 5 starts and has compiled an ugly 9.58 ERA in those outings. The right-hander is coming back from an elbow injury and he could be limited here. With both starters unlikely to work deep into this game, their sub-par bullpens could be exposed in this one. Texas is scoring an average of 5.8 runs per game against right-handed starters this season. Certainly the Tigers numbers are not good in terms of offensive production this season. However, other than a shutout last week, the Tigers did average scoring 5.3 runs per game in their other 4 games. Couple that with the history of Chavez struggling in this park and you have a recipe for some Detroit success at the plate in this one. Look for the over to move to 6-0 in Zimmerman's last 6 starts as the over also moves to 10-3 in Rangers Tuesday games on the season. 10* OVER the total in Detroit |
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06-24-19 | Braves v. Cubs -117 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 15 h 52 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #904 Monday 10* Top Play Chicago Cubs Money Line (-) vs Atlanta Braves @ 8:05 ET - The Cubs are offering strong line value here at home against the Braves. Chicago southpaw Jon Lester has a 2.76 ERA in his 8 starts at Wrigley Field this season and the Cubs have gone 6-2 in those outings. The Braves are starting Julio Teheran in this one. The Atlanta right-hander gave up 6 earned runs in just 4 innings in his most recent start. Also, Teheran gave up 4 earned runs in just 6 innings in his most recent start at Wrigley Field. Teheran walked 3 while striking out just 1 in that outing. The Braves right-hander also allowed 2 homers in that start at Wrigley Field. Lester got a no decision in his only start against the Braves this season but that start was at Atlanta and he remains 6-2 with a 2.52 ERA in his 10 lifetime starts against the Braves. Both teams are off low-scoring wins yesterday but I like the fact the Cubs remain at home for this one while Atlanta continues their road trip. Also, Chicago is now 11-4 this season in home games with a money line range of +125 to -125. Look for that strong home record in this price range to continue on Monday. 10* CHICAGO CUBS |
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06-24-19 | Blue Jays v. Yankees OVER 10.5 | Top | 8-10 | Win | 100 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #909 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 7:05 ET - Although the Yankees CC Sabathia has had great success at home this season, I expect the lefty to get roughed up here. The last time Sabathia faced the Blue Jays in the Bronx was not that long ago (September) and he was rocked for 5 earned runs in only 2 and 1/3 innings. Sabathia has allowed 5 homers in his last 9 and 1/3 innings against Toronto. The Blue Jays enter this contest with plenty of confidence at the plate. Toronto is off a 6-1 win Sunday and has won 3 of its last 4 games. Also, in terms of run production, the Blue Jays have scored an average of 6.3 runs per game their last 8 games. This one is likely to turn into a slugfest as the Blue Jays start Aaron Sanchez in this one. The right-hander is 0-8 in his last 8 decisions. Also, Sanchez is most recently 0-3 with a 13.50 ERA in his three most recent starts. He is 0-2 with 7 earned runs allowed in 11 and 2/3 innings spanning his last two starts against New York. The Yankees lineup comes into this game red hot. Prior to a 9-4 loss to the Astros yesterday, the Yankees had won 8 straight games and scored an average of 7.5 runs per game in doing so. Don't be surprised if this one ends up being a 7-6 type game. The over is 13-7, including 3-1 this season, when Toronto is on the road in a game with a posted total of 10 or 10.5 runs. 10* OVER the total in New York Yankees |
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06-23-19 | Orioles v. Mariners OVER 9 | Top | 3-13 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #977 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Seattle Mariners vs Baltimore Orioles @ 4:10 ET - Another high-scoring game yesterday as these two teams have now combined for 31 runs in the last two games. The Orioles are 8-2-1 to the over in their last 11 games as Baltimore has allowed an average of 8.6 runs per game their past 11 games. Seattle has scored an average of 7.8 runs their past 4 games. The Mariners are 18-5-2 to the over in their past 25 games! Seattle has allowed an average of 5.8 runs per game their last dozen games. Baltimore's Gabriel Ynoa is winless with a 5.65 ERA this season. Also, he has allowed 7 homers in his last 3 starts. Seattle's Yusei Kikuchi has allowed 6 homers in his last 3 starts while compiling an ugly 8.78 ERA in these outings. Incredibly, the over is 13-1-2 this season in Kikuchi's starts. The over is 22-6 in Mariners day games this season. This match-up also features the two worst bullpens in the American League this season as the Mariners have a 5.26 ERA and the Orioles have a 6.13 ERA on the season. With the way these starting pitchers and bullpens have been performing, plus the fact that both teams have hit well in recent days, this one has slugfest written all over it. 10* OVER the total in Seattle |
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06-23-19 | Astros -125 v. Yankees | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #969 Sunday 10* Top Play Houston Astros Money Line (-) @ New York Yankees @ 2:05 ET - With yesterday's win the Yankees have now won 8 straight while the Astros have now lost 7 straight. That said, this big play for me Sunday on Houston may seem like a "gutsy" call but the reality is there are key reasons to expect the Astros lineup to have a huge afternoon compared to the Yankees sticks. Even though Houston lost 7-5 yesterday they outhit New York 11-7. Also, the Yanks struck out 12 times while the Astros fanned only 3 times. After a sloppy game (3 errors) for Houston yesterday, I fully expect a big bounce back with Justin Verlander on the mound in this one. Even though he has struggled with giving up the long ball in his last two starts, he has still looked quite impressive. Verlander continues to pile up the strikeouts while the Yankees J.A. Happ is struggling to record strikeouts. Overall, the Yanks southpaw has been getting hit quite hard and also has nearly as many walks as strikeouts in his last two starts combined. Verlander has a 2.92 ERA in road starts this season while Happ has a 5.13 ERA in home starts this season. Verlander has allowed only 15 hits while striking out 25 over the 20 and 2/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts versus the Yankees. Conversely, Happ has allowed 14 hits (including 4 homers) plus has walked 5 in his last two starts against the Astros. That means Happ is allowing nearly 2 baserunners per inning in recent starts versus Houston. The Astros are 16-6 against left-handed starters this season. The Yankees are 0-2 the last two times they faced Verlander and, in their prior meeting, the Yanks got the win despite Verlander pitching 8 innings of shutout ball with 14 strikeouts. Look for road dominance in this one. 10* HOUSTON |
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06-22-19 | White Sox v. Rangers OVER 10.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 16 h 52 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #927 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Chicago White Sox @ 9:05 ET - This total opened up at an 11 and dropped to a 10.5 as of early game day morning. I am well aware of the fact that Lance Lynn has pitched very well this season but he also struggles much more versus left-handed bats than righties. The White Sox have a number of left-handed bats and switch-hitters that could give him some trouble tonight. Also, with their 5-4 win last night, the White Sox have won 5 of their last 8 games and have averaged a respectable 6 runs scored per game in those 5 wins. The Rangers, despite the 5-4 tenth inning loss yesterday, have a very potent offense and have averaged scoring 5.7 runs per game at home this season and 5.8 runs per game against right-handed starters. Texas should enjoy a breakout game at the plate tonight as they take advantage of facing the struggling Odrisamer Despaigne. He is 13-26 with a 5.05 ERA at the MLB level in his career and things are going from bad to worse for the White Sox right-hander. He is 0-2 with an 8.71 ERA in his two starts this season. The over was 6-2 in the White Sox 8 games prior to last night's game staying under the total. The over was 4-1 in the Rangers last 5 games prior to now recording back to back unders at home (rare). Look for "normal" to return tonight with a slugfest at Globe Life Park in Arlington. 10* OVER the total in Texas |
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06-22-19 | Hamilton v. Toronto +4 | Top | 64-14 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #694 Saturday 10* Top Play Toronto Argonauts (+) vs Hamilton Tiger-Cats @ 4 ET - The Argonauts have a new head coach but certainly he is not new to Toronto. In fact it is Corey Chamblin and he was previously the Argos defensive coordinator. This included their run to the Grey Cup Title in 2017. That said, with Toronto having a bye in week one, they have had plenty of time to prepare for their season opener at home this week against Hamilton. I like the fact that the Tiger-Cats have seen the line double here. Hamilton opened up as a 2 point choice but is now a 4-point favorite as of early game day morning. This means extra value for the home dog Argonauts. That said, you also know that there is plenty of motivation for Chamblin's defense to put the stops on a Tiger-Cats offense led by QB Jeremiah Masoli. Hamilton enters this season with expectations to be a top team in the east and the Argonauts are highly motivated to make a statement about that right here. Additionally, I like the fact that the Ti-Cats were outgained by over 100 yards on the ground last week. Hamilton won despite a huge yardage deficit on the ground and, keep in mind, Masoli didn't exactly light it up either. He was held to 169 yards through the air and that was against a Saskatchewan team that then allowed 44 points at Ottawa this week. In other words, don't be surprised when the Argonauts give the Ti-Cats a helluva test here and either win the game outright or lose by 3 points or less. Hamilton is 3-11 SU and ATS in Saturday games the past two seasons. The fact that the Tiger-Cats won all three meetings last season is even more reason to go with the hungry, revenge-minded home underdog here. 10* TORONTO |
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06-21-19 | BC v. Edmonton -3 | Top | 23-39 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #692 Friday 10* Top Play Edmonton Eskimos (-) vs BC Lions @ 9 ET - The home team won and covered all 3 meetings last season. This match-up opened up at a -4.5 and has dropped to a -3 and I love the value we're being offered here with Edmonton. The Lions QB is former Eskimo Mike Reilly. Certainly he would love to get a win over his former team but don't forget that the Eskimos defense also has some added motivation here. Also, even though Reilly had some strong stats in in his first start for BC last week, he did also throw two picks. Note that Reilly's replacement in Edmonton, Trevor Harris, had a massive game for the Eskimos last week. Also, Edmonton's ground attack was solid with CJ Gable running for over 150 yards on 20 carries. The Eskimos have the home field edge and the running game edge as the Lions rushing attack last week was non-existent. That said, Harris was the better QB than Reilly last week in each teams respective season opener. Even if Reilly outplays Harris in this match-up, the Eskimos have the other key edges that should still lead to a home victory. Considering that as well as the value with this line down to a -3 and the small home fave is the play in this one. 10* EDMONTON |
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06-21-19 | Padres v. Pirates OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #957 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres @ 7:05 ET - The Padres bullpen has a 5.52 ERA in road games. The Pirates bullpen has a 5.60 ERA in home games. San Diego starter Eric Lauer has a 7.82 ERA in road starts. Pittsburgh starter Joe Musgrove has a 5.71 ERA in home starts. Lauer has allowed 22 hits in 15 and 1/3 innings spanning his 3 career starts against the Pirates. Musgrove has fared well in his two career starts against the Padres but both of those were at pitcher friendly Petco Field. This match-up at PNC Park will prove to be a much tougher one for him. Musgrove's two starts against the Padres both went over the total and the over is 2-1 in Lauer's three starts against the Pirates. The over is 10-2 in Musgrove's last dozen starts! The over is 6-1 this season when the Padres are playing after a day off. Also, when San Diego enters a game on a winning streak of 3 or more games, the over is 7-1 this season. In home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs, the over is 7-2 in Pittsburgh this season. With this total dropping from a 9 to an 8.5 we have excellent line value here. The over is also 11-5 this season in Pirates games against left-handed starters. The Bucs enter this game having scored an average of 6 runs per game their last 11 games. The Padres enter this game having scored an average of 9 runs per game their last 6 games. Per all of the above, all signs point to this one cashing nicely for us. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh |
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06-20-19 | Reds v. Brewers OVER 9.5 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #909 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds @ 8:10 ET - Milwaukee's game flew over the total yesterday and I look for more of the same today. I know the Brewers had been trending under recently and, overall, the Reds have been trending under all season (including yesterday) but the situation here is conducive to an over. The Brewers are coming off a tough road trip and are happy to be back home. They will take advantage of facing a struggling Tanner Roark. The Cincinnati right-hander is 0-3 with a 5.00 ERA in his last 3 starts. All 3 of those outings resulted in an under but it certainly wasn't due to his pitching. Now Roark faces a Brewers team that has gotten to him for 7 earned runs in just 10 and 1/3 innings in his two most recent starts against them. Milwaukee has their own concern in terms of their starting pitcher Thursday. Jimmy Nelson gets the start and the Brewers right-hander has allowed 8 earned runs in just 7 innings combined in his first two starts this season (both this month). Also, Nelson certainly doesn't have good recent history against the Reds. In his most recent start against Cincinnati, Nelson gave up 9 earned runs in less than 4 innings of work. Look for the over to improve to a perfect 3-0 in Nelson's starts on the season. The Brewers have a .480 slugging percentage at home this season which ranks them 4th in the majors! The Reds have won 4 straight games and averaged 5.3 runs per game during this hot streak. Cincinnati scored 7 runs in their most recent road game too, also a victory. Both teams enjoy plenty of success at the plate in this one. 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee |
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06-20-19 | Saskatchewan v. Ottawa OVER 43.5 | Top | 41-44 | Win | 100 | 14 h 4 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #689 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Ottawa Redblacks vs Saskatchewan Roughriders @ 7:30 ET - Line moves are funny sometimes, even in the CFL. The odds makers, of course, knew about the Zach Collaros (Riders QB) injury and yet they set the total on this game at 49.5 with that in mind. The betting markets are indicating that was a horrible number and the total has now plummeted a full 6 points down to 43.5 as of early game day morning. Long-time followers know I love grabbing the value in contrarian situations like this as, let us not kid ourselves, the fact is the odds makers are quite sharp! The Redblacks are certainly going to be geared up for their home (and season) opener! At the same time, the Roughriders are ready to bounce back (even without Collaros) after losing a tight one 23-17 last week. Keep in mind he got hurt early on in that game so the Riders already have had some time playing without him. That will help them this week but they're going to struggle to stop Ottawa's offense in this one. Note that the over went 4-1 in Redblacks June games the past two seasons. Also, the over is 3-1 in the last 4 meetings between these teams. This one is all about the line value but certainly includes match-up value and situational value. Big game for the Redblacks for the home fans but look for the Riders to match them score for score. 10* OVER the total in Ottawa |
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06-19-19 | Royals v. Mariners OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #967 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Seattle Mariners vs Kansas City Royals @ 6:40 ET - The Mariners got shut out at home yesterday and the 9-0 Royals win just missed going over the total. That has set up the type of situation I look for when it comes to totals. On Wednesday, the Mariners have the struggling pitcher on the mound so the Royals should keep scoring. At the same time, you know Seattle is poised to bounce back at the plate after a rare home shutout loss. The Mariners have been one of the hottest hitting teams in the majors this month. First off lets talk about Marco Gonzales. The Seattle left-hander is likely wishing he was not at home for this start. In his 4 home starts dating back to May 1st, Gonzales has been nothing short of awful. The southpaw has allowed 30 runs (24 earned) in just 15 and 1/3 innings. Those are horrible numbers of course and the KC bats have plenty of confidence here as they have now scored an average of 8 runs per game in their last 3 games. The Mariners, prior to yesterday's shutout, had scored an average of 6.6 runs per game their last dozen games. They'll bounce back here against Brad Keller. I know that the Kansas City right-hander has some impressive numbers this season and a low ERA on the season. However, Keller has been hit quite hard in many of his road starts this season. In fact, prior to a surprisingly strong road start at Minnesota in his most recent outing, Keller had given up 19 hits in 13 innings spanning his two prior starts away from home. The Mariners have a quality lineup that is in bounce back mode and will enjoy success here. The over is 15-4-2 in Seattle's last 21 games. The over is 20-6-1 in Mariners day games this season and this one starts at 3:40 PM local time. 10* OVER the total in Seattle |
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06-19-19 | Brewers +101 v. Padres | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #951 Wednesday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Brewers Money Line (+) @ San Diego Padres @ 3:40 ET - First off, make this bet as action. That said, if there is a pitching change, your bet will still be active. I recommend this because the Padres Matt Strahm has been bothered by a rib injury and, if he would be scratched, I still like this play because I like the Brewers to bounce back after scoring just 1 run in yesterday's loss. Zach Davies is slated to be the starter for Milwaukee in this one. The right-hander has been a little up and down lately but the Padres lineup has very little experience with him plus he is still a fantastic 7-1 this season with a very impressive 2.60 ERA. On the road this season he has a superb 2.25 ERA in his 8 starts. Also, though Davies has been a little up and down, San Diego's Strahm has truly just been down in recent outings. The Padres left-hander has allowed multiple homers in each of his last 3 starts. In his last two starts, including one at home against a bad Marlins team, Strahm allowed 13 earned runs in less than 8 innings of work! The Brewers are 17-9 in day games this season. Milwaukee is off back to back losses and that is certainly noteworthy here as they have not lost 3 straight games since over 5 weeks ago in mid-May. The Padres Strahm is 0-3 in his last 3 starts! San Diego has won 3 straight games but, prior to this rare hot streak, the Padres had lost 13 of their last 19 games. The Brewers also rate the bullpen edge in this match-up. 10* MILWAUKEE |
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06-18-19 | Indians v. Rangers OVER 10.5 | Top | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #917 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Indians @ 8:05 ET - I am coming right back with the over in the Rangers / Indians match-up after losing by the slimmest of margins with yesterday's picks. Yes today's total is a 10.5 whereas yesterday's was a 9.5 but that is because of the pitching match-up here. Don't be fooled by the strong ERA of Zach Plesac and the respectable ERA of Adrian Sampson in this one. I will start with the latter. Sampson has been hit at a .287 batting average in his career and that includes opponents hitting .284 against him this season. In other words, his stuff is nothing special and I look for the Tribe to hammer him after being held to just 2 runs in yesterday's loss. As for Plesac, the 24-year old rookie started out like gangbusters in his first 3 starts but his most recent start (allowed 3 homers to the Reds) is a sign of things to come. That start versus Cincinnati was at home for Plesac and now he goes on the road for the first time in over two weeks. Not only that, he is facing a Rangers team that is the #1 scoring team in the AL when at home. Texas is averaging 5.9 runs per game in their 37 games played in Arlington this season. The Rangers have scored 7 or more runs in 3 of their last 4 home games. Cleveland, prior to being held to 2 runs in yesterday's loss, had scored an average of 8.3 runs per game in their last 3 road games. The Indians bats get back on track here and the Rangers sticks stay hot at home in hitter-friendly conditions at Globe Life Park in Arlington Tuesday. 10* OVER the total in Texas |
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06-18-19 | Angels -105 v. Blue Jays | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #915 Tuesday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Angels Money Line (-) @ Toronto Blue Jays @ 7:05 ET - The Angels doubled up the Blue Jays 10-5 yesterday and more of the same is on tap today. Toronto is 12-26 this season in games played on turf and, of course, that includes all their home games. The Blue Jays are also an ugly 14-27 in night games this season. The Angels are 9-6 this season against AL East teams and, overall, yesterday's big win moves LA's record to 5-2 in their last 7 games. The Jays have lost 8 of their last 11 games overall and that includes 5 straight defeats at home. Los Angeles is 4-2 in Tyler Skaggs career starts against the Blue Jays and the southpaw has compiled a 3.93 ERA in those outings. Toronto's Marcus Stroman gave up 4 earned runs in just 3 and 1/3 innings in his most recent start against the Angels. Also, the Jays right-hander has a 5.02 ERA in his 6 appearances (5 starts) versus LA. The Blue Jays righty has been laboring a bit in the month of June and has a 4.82 ERA. I mentioned Toronto's 3-8 run above and, going further back, it is a 5-15 run for the Blue Jays their last 20 games. The Angels opened up as high as a -125 favorite here but now fell into a pick'em price range. I love the value with the much better team at a bargain price here. 10* LOS ANGELES ANGELS |
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06-17-19 | Indians v. Rangers OVER 9.5 | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #965 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Indians @ 8:05 ET - Lance Lynn has strong numbers for the Rangers overall but even though he is undefeated in his home starts he has actually been hit quite hard in his starts in Arlington. Also, against left-handed batters Lynn struggles much more than against righties. That will prove to be an issue against the Indians because they are loaded with left-handed sticks and switch-hitters. Don't be surprised if Mike Clevinger struggles too. This is his first start at the MLB level since he hurt his back two months ago. In a rehab start at the AAA level he gave up 3 earned runs in just 2 innings. He is a hard thrower but that is actually the type of pitcher the Rangers have had success against in the past and Texas is a very strong hitting team when at home. Clevinger also may struggle a bit with his location as this is his first start in two months. The Rangers bats, especially when in Arlington, can certainly make pitchers pay for "mistake pitches" in terms of location. The Indians scored 8 runs in yesterday's win and they are 6-2 in their last 8 games and have averaged scoring 6 runs per game in those 8 games. The Rangers are off an 11-3 loss yesterday on the road but they entered that game having scored an average of 6 runs per game in their 9 prior games. The over is 5-1 in Cleveland's Monday games this season. The over is 15-9 when the Rangers are facing a team with a winning record. This total opened up at a 10 with good reason. The Indians have a strong bullpen but the Rangers do not and, with the line move down to a 9.5, I am happy to grab the extra value being offered here. 10* OVER the total in Texas |
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06-16-19 | Blue Jays v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 12-0 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
Run Line Rout - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #926 Sunday 10* Top Play Houston Astros Run Line -1.5 runs vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 2:10 ET - The Astros are 2 to 1 favorites on the money line in this one with good reason. Of course I would never lay that type of price but this is the type of situation where the run line can prove to be very valuable. By taking Houston -1.5 runs the price on the Astros drops into the pick'em range and that is offering great value as an Astros win by 2 runs or more is highly like. The Astros are 6-1 in Brad Peacock's home starts this season. Also, the Blue Jays Trent Thornton has been in significant jams in his recent starts and has been fortunate to work himself out of those. The Toronto right-hander won't be so fortunate Sunday as he faces one of the toughest lineups in the league. The Astros have blasted the Jays by a combined score of 22 to 4 in the first two games of this series. Overall, Houston has averaged scoring 8.8 runs per game in their last 4 games. The Blue Jays last 10 losses have all come by 2 runs or more. In fact, Toronto has lost those 10 games by an average margin of 5.5 runs per defeat! The Blue Jays are 10-27 (including 1-7 this season) as a road underdog of +175 to +250 and that is the range they fall into again today. Look for another home rout as the Astros stay hot at the plate and also hold a big pitching edge in this match-up. Thornton has a 6.13 ERA in his last 3 starts. 10* HOUSTON Run Line -1.5 runs |
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06-16-19 | Royals v. Twins OVER 9 | Top | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #921 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals @ 2:10 ET - The Twins have been hitting the ball very well but today have a "weak link" in their starting rotation taking the mound and that set this one up well to be an over. Of course the odds makers feel the same way I do and set this total as high a a 10 but the markets have already forced a move down to as low as a 9. This is the ideal situation I like to take advantage of in terms of value and I won't hesitate to step in on this one! The Twins Martin Perez is winless with an 8.75 ERA in his last 3 starts. The left-hander will be opposed by the Royals Jake Junis. The KC right-hander is unlikely to have success here. Junis gave up 3 homers in just 3 innings the last time he faced Minnesota. Also, Junis has allowed 9 homers in his last 6 road starts. Overall he has allowed at least 2 homers in 2 of his last 3 starts. The Twins have scored 5 or more runs in 8 of their last 10 games. Minnesota has had just 1 under in its last 10 games! The over is a perfect 4-0 in the last 4 starts that Perez has made. The over is 18-11-3 in Twins games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. This one is set to fly over the total and I am going to take advantage of the value added by false perception on the part of the betting markets. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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06-15-19 | Padres v. Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 8-14 | Win | 100 | 14 h 59 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #961 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres @ 8:10 ET - Yesterday's game was a wild one to say the least. The Padres came up with a huge rally in the top of the 9th and then won the game with another huge rally in the top of the 12th! The game finished a 16-12 San Diego win and both teams had to use 7 innings of bullpen as the starters for both the Padres and Rockies only lasted 5 innings. Another wild one is quite likely tonight and I like the fact that the total on this game dropped from an 11.5 to an 11 as that is offering up even more line value with this one. Both the Padres Eric Lauer and Rockies German Marquez are likely to struggle here. Marquez has been great on the road last season and this season but home outings have been a different story. Last season Marquez was hit at a .284 clip in home games and compiled a 4.74 ERA. This season Marquez has been hit at a .303 clip at Coors Field and compiled a 5.06 ERA. Lauer has made two career starts at Coors Field and both were nightmares. The Padres southpaw has allowed 15 runs (14 earned) in just 6 innings spanning his two career starts at Colorado. Considering the likelihood of each starter struggling here, the fact that both bullpens got stretched out yesterday, and the fact that the ball will again be carrying very well at hitter-friendly Coors Field, this one has "over" written all "over" it! 4 of the 5 meetings between these teams in Colorado this season have resulted in an over. The over is 9-3-1 in San Diego's last 13 games. Each team scored a dozen runs yesterday and I look for the teams to, at the very least, combine for a dozen runs in this one Saturday. 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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06-15-19 | Ottawa +8.5 v. Calgary | Top | 32-28 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #685 Saturday 10* Top Play Ottawa Redblacks (+) @ Calgary Stampeders @ 7 ET - A rematch of last year's Grey Cup and I like having the big points on my side here considering all the off-season changes for both of these teams. Yes, Calgary has won 7 straight home openers and also defeated Ottawa in all 3 meetings last season. However, there were wholesale changes for both teams coming into this season. That said, I like the fact that Redblacks defense has more continuity than the Stampeders defense heading into this season. Ottawa's defense remains mostly intact from last season in terms of personnel and they are responding well to defensive coordinator Noel Thorpe heading into the season. The Stamps also have a new defensive coordinator this season but their situation is much more complicated. Former Calgary defensive coordinator DeVone Claybrooks is now the head coach of the BC Lions. New Stamps DC Brett Monson has a tall task in front of him as the Stampeders lost more than half their starters from the unit that won the Grey Cup last season. As an underdog, Ottawa has gone a fantastic 15-6 ATS the past two seasons. The Redblacks are also a fantastic 11-2 ATS in June games. Ottawa is 13-5 ATS in road games the past two seasons and Calgary is an ugly 1-4 ATS the past two seasons in home games with a posted total between 49.5 and 52 points. The turnover ratio was 12 to 4 last season in favor of the Stamps which played a key role in the Redblacks going 0-3 ATS in their 3 meetings. That poor ATS record is also part of the reason this line has jumped from 6.5 to 8.5 on Calgary. In typical contrarian fashion, I am on the other side of the line move and grabbing the extra value per all the reasons noted above. 10* OTTAWA |
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06-15-19 | Diamondbacks v. Nationals -1.5 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
Run Line Rout - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #954 Saturday 10* Top Play Washington Nationals Run Line -1.5 runs vs Arizona Cardinals @ 4:05 ET - Huge pitching edge for the Nationals here and, of course, that is why they are priced as a 2 to 1 favorite here on the money line. We can still get involved here with Washington without laying big prices as we can go with the Nationals on the run line in this one. That brings the price down to a pick'em range and, certainly a Washington win is likely to come by 2 or more runs here. That's because 25 of the Nationals 32 wins this season have come by 2 or more runs and more than half of the Diamondbacks losses this season have come by a multiple run margin. Arizona is starting Taylor Clarke in this one and the right-hander has a 6.35 ERA as a starter this season including a 9.58 ERA in his last 3 starts. The Nats start Stephen Strasburg in this one and he has settled in quite nicely after a rough start to the season when he was struggling with the long ball. Strasburg has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 8 of his last 10 starts. Also, one of the weaknesses for Washington is their bullpen but Strasburg has averaged 7 innings per starts his last 10 starts so truly the bullpen impact in this game should be minimal and the Nationals should be able to use their top relievers to close this one out. In home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs, the Nationals are 5-1 this season. Also, the Nats are 3-0 in Strasburg's last 3 starts overall and also 3-0 in his last 3 home starts. As a road dog in a range of +175 to +250, Arizona is 2-11 their last 13 and I like the strong odds that a Diamondbacks loss here comes by 2 or more runs. 10* WASHINGTON Run Line -1.5 runs |
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06-14-19 | Montreal v. Edmonton OVER 51 | Top | 25-32 | Win | 100 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #683 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Edmonton Eskimos vs Montreal Alouettes @ 9 ET - Major changes for both teams in terms of personnel heading into this season. Additionally, a sudden coaching change for the Alouettes occurred only about a week before the season got underway as Montreal is now being coached by their offensive coordinator and the Mike Sherman stint - a short one - is finished in Quebec. With all the changes I am expecting some breakdowns in this game. Both teams could be mistake-prone which can lead to some big plays. The over is 3-1 in the last 4 home games with a posted total between 49.5 and 52 points for the Eskimos. Also, the last 3 meetings between these teams all resulted in an over. Not only did each game go over, each one totaled at least 64 points and flew over the total by a double digit margin. Both teams have made changes at QB heading into this season and Edmonton is known for their offensive production while the Als have much to prove and now have their offensive coordinator calling the shots as the head coach. The result should be plenty of points in this one. 10* OVER the total in Edmonton |
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06-14-19 | Cardinals +122 v. Mets | Top | 9-5 | Win | 122 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #903 Friday 10* Top Play St Louis Cardinals Money Line (+) @ New York Mets @ 7:10 ET - The Cardinals bullpen ranks #1 in the majors for opponents batting average as they have held the opposition to a .205 so far this season. Conversely, the Mets bullpen ranks near the bottom of the majors for opponents batting average (.261) and ERA (5.08) on the season. As for the starting pitchers in this match-up, Daniel Ponce de Leon holds an advantage in that the Mets hitters are not familiar with him. Though he has been pitching at the AAA level he has good stuff and has had some success at the major league level in his career. With that said, he is flying under the radar right now and this has led to great value in this spot. I especially like the fact that the Cards opened up as a -115 favorite here and now the Mets are as high as a -135 favorite as of very early Friday morning. As long-time followers know, I love going against the grain when it comes to line moves. Sure Steven Matz deserves some respect but the Mets southpaw has a match-up issue when it comes to facing the Cardinals. The southpaw is 0-3 with an 8.49 ERA and 1.89 WHIP in his 3 career starts against St Louis. That spells trouble in this spot and, I also rate the lineups as equal. That said, we have the edge both in starting pitching and in terms of the relievers for this match-up. The Mets went 19-35 in June games the past two years and have not impressed in June of this year thus far. At the MLB level Ponce de Leon has a 2.61 ERA and has held opponents to a .194 batting average. Those stats are over 38 innings and I look for him to get his much-deserved first win at the MLB level on Friday night at Citi Field. 10* ST LOUIS CARDINALS |
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06-14-19 | Angels v. Rays OVER 7 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #917 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Angels @ 7:10 ET - Yesterday's total was an 8.5 and moved to a 9 in some spots and those who had the over got burned. The game was 5-3 through 5 innings so only one run was needed the rest of the way but it didn't happen. Yes the Rays pen has been strong this season but they had struggled some of late. Also, the Angels bullpen ranks in the bottom of the 3rd of the majors but, inexplicably, there was not a single run scored in the final 4 innings of last night's game. I like coming back with the over in the very next game after one plays out like that and I especially like the fact that this total opened up as high as an 8 but has since dropped to as low as a 7 as of early Friday morning. The Rays Blake Snell has great numbers again this season but has a 6.10 ERA in his last two starts. The Angels Andrew Heaney has allowed multiple homers in each of his 3 starts this season. The trouble with the longball is why he has a 6.17 ERA in his last two starts. Based on the above as well as the low total on this one following the line move, you can see why I like the over in this match-up. The Angels are averaging 5.7 runs per game their last dozen games. The Rays have suddenly been held to 3 or less runs in each of their last 3 games but, prior to this tough 3-game stretch, they had averaged 5.6 runs per game their last 9 games. Heaney allowed 4 earned runs in 6 innings in his lone career start at Tropicana Field and the Rays again get to the homer-prone lefty in this one. 10* OVER the total in Tampa Bay |
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06-13-19 | Raptors v. Warriors OVER 210.5 | Top | 114-110 | Win | 100 | 15 h 8 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #531 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Golden State Warriors vs Toronto Raptors @ 9:05 ET - Monday's game died in the 4th quarter in terms of the scoring. I don't expect a repeat of that here. It is yet another elimination game for the Warriors but this time they are at home. Golden State will be ready to make up for the Game 4 debacle on their home floor when they scored just 92 points! Prior to that game the Warriors had scored an average of 118.6 points per game in their 14 home games since the last time they were held under 100 points on their home floor. In other words, the Game 4 result was highly unusual and I am expecting a break out game from Golden State on the offensive end in this one. However, the Raptors have plenty of confidence too. Despite the Game 5 loss, Toronto still has the Warriors on the ropes here and the Raptors have averaged 112.8 points per game in their last 5 games at Golden State. Don't be surprised if this one turns into a see-saw battle with plenty of points! The over is 10-4-1 when Toronto is playing with home loss revenge this season. There have been back to back unders in this series but lets not forget that, prior to those two games, the over was 8-3-1 in the Warriors last 12 NBA Finals games. Look for that high-scoring long-term trend to resume Thursday as the Warriors get their outside shooting going in a big way on their home floor in this crucial Game 6 match-up. 10* OVER the total in Golden State |
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06-13-19 | Saskatchewan +3 v. Hamilton | Top | 17-23 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
Football Dominator - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #681 Thursday 10* Top Play Saskatchewan Roughriders (+) @ Hamilton Tiger-Cats @ 7:00 ET - The Riders have an experience edge here as the average age on their roster ranks them first in the league. The Cats are at the other end of the spectrum as they have 15 first-year players on their roster and that is the most of any team in the league. Though one would be correct in arguing that Hamilton's QB Jeremiah Masoli rates the edge over Saskatchewan's Zach Collaros, the pivot isn't the only position of importance on the field to say the least! The Roughriders were a top rushing team last season and that helps keep the defense off balance and that will open up the aerial attack for Collaros. Also, the Riders have won 5 straight games over Hamilton. Long-term, the Roughriders have won 23 of their last 30 games against the Ti-Cats. Hamilton is 2-9 SU and ATS the past two seasons in games in which the Tiger-Cats line ranged from a +3 to a -3. I am happy to grab the points in this one but I do expect the Riders to make it 6 in a row over the Ti-Cats! Both teams have new head coaches for this season and Hamilton also has changed both their offensive and defensive coordinators too. This has led to value with the road dog in this season opener. 10* SASKATCHEWAN |
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06-13-19 | Mariners v. Twins OVER 10.5 | Top | 5-10 | Win | 101 | 7 h 33 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #961 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners @ 1:10 ET - Yesterday's game flew over the total to continue the high-scoring trend for these two ball clubs. The over is now 7-1 in the Mariners last 8 games and the Twins are 8-1-3 to the over in their last 12 games. That' right, three pushes and just ONE under in Minnesota's last DOZEN games! Look for the high-scoring ways of both teams to continue here as this is also a favorable pitching match-up for an over and the weather will be very pleasant in Minneapolis for this afternoon affair. The Twins are starting Michael Pineda and he got rocked for 3 earned runs on 8 hits in only 5 innings in his first start back after returning from injury. The Mariners are starting Yusei Kikuchi and he is in a horrific slide. In his last 3 starts Kikuchi has allowed 29 hits (including 6 homers) in just 10 innings of work! The southpaw was successful against the Twins in a mid-May start but he has struggled since then and Minnesota will enjoy success in their 2nd shot at Kikuchi this afternoon. As for the Twins Pineda, he has allowed 6 homers in 18 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts against the Mariners. The over is 19-5 in Seattle's day games this season and also a perfect 6-0 in their road games with a posted total of 10 or 10.5 runs. Look for the over to improve to 9-1 this season in Mariners Thursday games! The over is 8-4 this season in Minnesota's games against left-handed starters. The over is 6-1 this season in Twins Thursday games. More of the same expected here. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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06-12-19 | Blues +155 v. Bruins | Top | 4-1 | Win | 155 | 16 h 5 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NHL Rotation #13 Wednesday 10* Top Play St Louis Blues Money Line (+) @ Boston Bruins @ 8:05 ET - History favors the Bruins since they have home ice in Game 7 of this Stanley Cup Final. However, history truly doesn't decide games and the road team has won 4 of the last 5 games in this series. In fact, throughout this entire post-season, the road team in Blues playoff games has won 16 of 25 games! That is 64% winners for the road team and, as always, the line is shaded heavily for home ice. The result is huge value for the team that is playing on enemy ice. In this case we get St Louis in a +150 range which is a huge value when you consider that the Blues had won 3 of the last 4 games in this series before the Game 6 loss. Also, St Louis is 23-7 the last 30 times they were off a loss. The Blues are an incredible 9-1 the last 10 times they have been on the road off a loss! St Louis is also 23-10 this season when off a game in which they allowed 4 or more goals. When tied in a playoff series, Boston is a long-term 18-22 (DOWN $14,300). Truly they are over-priced in this spot when you consider how strong the Blues and goalie Jordan Binnington have been when coming off a loss. I am grabbing the big dog value in this one. 10* ST LOUIS |
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06-12-19 | Blue Jays v. Orioles OVER 10.5 | Top | 8-6 | Win | 102 | 1 h 42 m | Show |
NOTE: Derek Law now getting the start as an "opener" for the Blues Jays in this one. He has pitched only 18 innings in his 14 appearances out of the bullpen this season. Law has a 5.89 ERA. This play remains as a Top Play even though Law is now the opener. Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #913 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 7:05 ET - Both these teams have been trending under this month and we've got a big total (11) posted on this game. That would make this seem like a value spot for an under but the pitching match-up here suggests plenty of runs in this one! The Blue Jays Edwin Jackson is struggling badly this season and even though only 2 of the runs he allowed in his most recent start were earned, the fact is he allowed 6 runs in 3 and 1/3 innings. The veteran right-hander is 0-4 with an 11.90 ERA on the season. He'll be opposed by the Orioles David Hess and he is 1-8 with a 7.08 ERA on the season. He had a great start against the Blue Jays very early this season but, since then, Hess has compiled an 8.20 ERA. The over is 3-1 in Jackson's last 4 starts and the over is 4-1 the 5 home starts Hess has made this season. The weather will also be favorable for an over at Oriole Park at Camden Yards tonight. This venue is known as a hitter friendly venue and everything lines up well for runs early, often, and throughout this contest. The Orioles bullpen has a 5.61 ERA this season which ranks them dead last in the American League. The last 10 times Baltimore has played a home game with a posted total of 11 or 11.5 runs, only 3 of the 10 games has resulted in an under! In other words, don't let the big number keep you away from this match-up as the Orioles and Blue Jays should both do plenty of damage at the plate considering this pitching match-up. Toronto had allowed an average of 7 runs per game their last 9 games before yesterday's under. The Orioles had allowed an average of 7 runs per game in their last 3 home games prior to yesterday. Look for both teams to put plenty on the board in this one. 10* OVER the total in Baltimore |
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06-11-19 | Reds v. Indians OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
Early Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #973 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Indians vs Cincinnati Reds @ 7:10 ET - These are two well-respected pitchers and that is helping to keep this total low. The key to the value is that both hurlers have struggled of late and so we have got some solid value here considering the way the Indians have been scoring runs. Cleveland is starting Trevor Bauer and he has allowed 26 runs (21 earned) in the 32 innings spanning his last 5 starts! The Reds do have familiarity with him since they have faced him in prior season in interleague action. While this will be Cincinnati's Luis Castillo first start against the Indians, Cleveland still should enjoy success. Why is that? The Reds right-hander has had command issues of late. Though he is off a better start, Castillo previously allowed 7 runs (6 earned) in just 8 innings of work spanning his two prior starts. He'll be facing an Indians team that has scored an average of 6 runs per game in their last 6 games. The over is 4-1 in the last 5 games for the Tribe. Bauer has allowed 4 homers in his last two home starts. Pleasant weather expected at Progressive Field this evening as well. 10* OVER the total in Cleveland |
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06-10-19 | Warriors +2 v. Raptors | Top | 106-105 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #529 Monday 10* Top Play Golden State Warriors (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 9:05 ET - The Warriors could have Kevin Durant back on the floor tonight. All signs are pointing that way and I liked Golden State in this match-up for Game 5 even if he didn't play so truly this has just increased the value for me. That's because the line, as of early Monday morning, has only budged by about a point, even though Durant could be a key catalyst for a big comeback effort from Golden State. While it is true that the Warriors are down 3-1 in this series, it is also true that it only takes one GS win for them to be very much alive in this series. Game 6 would be at home for Golden State and, with Durant possibly back on the floor for that one too, the Warriors would be a sizable favorite for then forcing an "anything can happen" Game 7 north of the border. Like I said, you can see why all hope is certainly not lost for GS and that is especially true when you consider that these guys are repeat champions looking for another ring! In other words, they've "been there, done that" and will be very hard for the Raptors to close out. Note that the Warriors are a long-term 13-6 (SU and ATS) when trailing in a playoff series. Toronto is a long-term 7-12 SU when leading in a playoff series. The Raptors, especially if Durant is back for GS, will be feeling the pressure to close this series out at home and avoid another trip to the West Coast. Truly this has the makings of an amazing series finish as I expect the Warriors to come up with their strongest effort of the series tonight and force a Game 6 out west. 10* GOLDEN STATE |
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06-10-19 | A's v. Rays OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #911 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tampa Bay Rays vs Oakland A's @ 7:10 ET - Charlie Morton has great numbers for the Rays but the A's lineup includes a number of guys that have enjoyed plenty of success against him. Don't be surprised when Oakland enjoys some success tonight against Morton. The issues for the Athletics is going to be slowing down the Rays. The A's are starting rookie Tanner Anderson. He has been pitching at AAA Las Vegas. At that level Anderson has compiled a 6.26 ERA in 11 games (10 starts) and now he'll be facing major league hitters so the likelihood of getting hit hard is certainly there! In terms of production on offense in this one, Oakland has scored 5 or more runs in 5 of their last 6 games and they have averaged 6 runs per game. The Rays come into this one hot as well in terms of their run production. Tampa Bay has averaged scoring 5.5 runs per game in their last 8 games and has scored 5 or more runs in 6 of their last 8 games. Each of these teams has produced 4 or more runs in 7 of their last 8 games. That is definitely noteworthy here as getting this game to 4-4 guarantees us of a winning ticket as that means the game has to end 5-4 at the very least. Both the A's and Rays are each 4-2 to the over in their Monday games this season. Look for plenty of runs in this one...early, often, and throughout this contest. 10* OVER the total in Tampa Bay |
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06-09-19 | Bruins +110 v. Blues | Top | 5-1 | Win | 110 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NHL Rotation #11 Sunday 10* Top Play Boston Bruins Money Line (+) @ St Louis Blues @ 8:20 ET - The Bruins lost Game 5 on home ice and everybody is ready to hand the Stanley Cup to St Louis now. But Boston actually outshot the Blues 39 to 21 in that game. Certainly St Louis goalie Jordan Binnington was a key to the win but it is not as if Bruins goalie Tuukka Rask played poorly. In fact, in the last 3 games Rask has allowed a total of only 7 goals while Binnington has allowed 8 goals. The Bruins did not get what they deserved in Game 5 but I expect them to bring the same all-out effort in Game 6 and this time it translates to a win. Keep in mind that the road team is 15-9 in the Blues 24 games thus far in the post-season. Home ice is always factored into the lines but having the home ice edge has been anything but an edge during the Blues run toward trying to notch a Stanley Cup Championship! The Bruins are 11-2 this season when they are off a game in which they were held to 1 goal or less. Boston is also a perfect 4-0 in this post-season when the Bruins are trailing in a playoff series. Look for St Louis to drop to 2-5 on the season when they are on home ice in a game with a posted total of 5 goals or less. Since February 1st, Boston has lost 3 straight games only 1 time. Entering this game off undeserved back to back losses, the odds certainly favor the Bruins avoiding seeing their season end on a 3-game losing streak. 10* BOSTON |
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06-09-19 | A's v. Rangers OVER 11 | Top | 9-8 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #975 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Oakland Athletics @ 3:05 ET - This is a contrarian play when looking at how well Frankie Montas has pitched for the A's this season. However, as long-time followers know, I go contrarian to public perception quite often and that is the case here as per usual. With this total at 11 or 11.5 runs many perceive it to be too high considering that Montas is 7-2 with a 2.83 ERA for Oakland this season. The key to the value is he is facing a Rangers team that has been one of the top hitting teams in the majors this season and that tends to be particularly dangerous when on their home field. After yesterday's sweep of the double-header, Texas is 9-3 their last dozen games and the Rangers have scored an average of 6 runs per game during this stretch. On the season Texas is averaging 6 runs per game against right-handed starters and the A's are averaging 6 runs per game in road games. Oakland should have no trouble with the offerings of Rangers lefty Drew Smyly in this one. The Texas southpaw has been rocked in each of his last two outings and also got rocked by the A's when he faced them earlier this season. Smyly is 0-2 with a 7.43 ERA in his 6 home starts this season. Oakland is 16-8 to the over, including 5-1 this season, in road games in which they are a road favorite in a price range of -125 to -175. Texas is 7-3 to the over in Sunday games this season and the over is 14-7 in Rangers day games this season after Game 1 of yesterday's double-header had 15 runs scored and soared over the total. More of the same here! 10* OVER the total in Texas |
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06-08-19 | Yankees v. Indians OVER 10 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
TV Game of the Day - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #923 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Indians vs New York Yankees @ 4:10 ET - CC Sabathia is a former Indian and this could be the last time he pitches at Cleveland. Though the veteran left-hander will be be amped up to have a strong start it is unlikely that will be the case here. He has been hammered in each of his last two starts at Progressive Field. Also, the Tribe continue to be stronger with the sticks of late. With their 5-2 win yesterday, the Indians have averaged a respectable 5 runs per game over their last dozen games. The Yankees, prior to yesterday's poor day at the plate, had averaged 7 runs per game in their last 11 road games. Also, New York had scored 6 or more runs in 10 of those 11 road games. The Indians sticks should enjoy plenty of success as homer-prone Sabathia's struggles with the long ball continue. The Yankees southpaw has allowed 13 homers in his last 7 starts! The Yanks sticks should crush the ball here too as they take advantage of facing Cleveland's Adam Plutko. The Indians right-hander has been bouncing between the majors and minors this season and neither has gone well for him. Plutko has a 6.35 ERA at the MLB level this season and a 5.50 ERA in the majors in his career! In the minors this season Plutko has gone 1-3 with a 7.47 ERA! You can see why I am expecting the Yankees sticks to bounce back after yesterday's disappointment. Even including yesterday's under, the Yankees are an incredible 20-7 to the over in road games this season. 10* OVER the total in Cleveland |
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06-08-19 | Reds v. Phillies -135 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #902 Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) vs Cincinnati Reds @ 4:05 ET - This line (-135 range) of course includes the home field factor. In other words, this line is basically saying that these teams would be equal on a neutral field and I completely disagree with that. This is the reason I am willing to lay a -135 price for a 10* Top Play and that is rare for me. Keep in mind, the Phillies are at the top of the NL East while the Reds are in the basement of the NL Central. Philadelphia is a fantastic 21-11 in home games this season while Cincinnati is a sub-par 13-19 in road games on the season. The Phillies are starting Nick Pivetta in this one and, after being demoted to AAA ball in the minors earlier this season, he has come back to the bigs with vengeance. Pivetta has allowed only 6 hits and has walked 0 while striking out 15 in the 11 innings spanning his two starts since returning to the Phils. The right-hander's ERA at the MLB level doesn't do him justice as he truly is a strikeout machine and his demotion in April looks like it woke him up and has taken him to another level. The only time he has hosted the Reds in his career he held them to just 2 earned runs on only 5 hits in 7 innings of work. He is capable of dominating here while the Nationals Tanner Roark is likely to get hit hard. The Washington right-hander has been hit at a .307 clip and has a 2.01 WHIP (2 baserunner per inning!) against left-handed hitters this season. Keep in mind the Phillies recent red hot left-handed bat Jay Bruce and other lefties likely to be in the lineup today include Bryce Harper, Adam Haseley, and switch-hitter Cesar Hernandez. Also, the right-handed sticks of Jean Segura, Rhys Hoskins, and Jean Segura (their 3-4-5 hitters in yesterday's lineup) have hit a combined .407 in 59 career at-bats versus Roark. Also, Maikel Franco is hitting .290 in 31 career at-bats versus Roark. The home team smashes their way to a blowout win in this one as the match-up edges for the Phillies make them well worth the price here. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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06-07-19 | Raptors v. Warriors -4.5 | Top | 105-92 | Loss | -103 | 16 h 52 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #528 Friday 10* Top Play Golden State Warriors (-) vs Toronto Raptors @ 9:05 ET - The Warriors are in full on bounce back mode here after an embarrassing home loss in Game 3. Golden State was still without Kevin Durant of course but they also were without Klay Thompson for that game and that proved to be too much for them to overcome even though Stephen Curry scored 47 points. In Game 4 Friday, look for the Warriors to have a true "energy game" here as they are highly motivated and also will be energized by the return of Klay Thompson here. GS can not afford to fall into a 3-1 hole. Yes, a "must win" does not always equate to a "must win" but in this case, with the defending champs at home and in a great spot for a huge effort, I am happy to lay the short number in this one. Golden State is 13-5 SU and ATS when trailing in a playoff series. Toronto is 6-12 SU and 7-11 ATS when leading in a playoff series. When the Warriors enter a game off 3 or more consecutive overs, Golden State has gone 8-2 SU and ATS this season. Look for the Warriors to really clamp down on defense here after allowing 123 points in Game 3. When playing with home loss revenge, GS has gone 9-3 SU this season and they've covered 8 of those 12 games! Keep in mind, the Raptors entered this series having gone just 1-2 SU and ATS in road games in their series victories over the 76ers and Bucks. In other words, it is easy to see why the odds favor a letdown here for Toronto after they already got their big road win and cover in Game 3 on Wednesday. Payback time for the small home favorite. 10* GOLDEN STATE |
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06-07-19 | Pirates v. Brewers OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-10 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #959 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 8:10 ET - The Pirates are 17-10 to the over this season when off a win. Pittsburgh is 10-5 to the over this season in games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. The Pirates 6-1 win yesterday stayed under the total but, prior to that one, the over was 24-7-2 in their 33 prior games. Pittsburgh is starting Rookie Davis in this one and this will be his first start since the 2017 season. Out of the bullpen he has a 5.87 ERA this season. Milwaukee, just like Pittsburgh, is off a victory in which they allowed only 1 run yesterday. However, though that game stayed under the total, the over was 5-1 in the Brewers 6 prior games. Also, Brandon Woodruff gets the start in this one and the Pirates are proving to be a nemesis for him. The Milwaukee right-hander has allowed 12 earned runs in 9 innings spanning his two career starts against the Pirates and that includes getting hammered by them on Saturday. Giving Pittsburgh a quick "second look" at him here is unlikely to help matters for Woodruff. He won't be fooling many sticks in this one. The over is 5-1 in Woodruff's last 6 home starts. The over is 3-1 this season when the Brewers are a home favorite in a money line range of -175 to -250. The over trending for each of these teams resumes in a big way on Friday night at Miller Park. 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee |
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06-06-19 | Blues v. Bruins OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach NHL Rotation #9 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Bruins vs St Louis Blues @ 8:05 ET - With injury issues to the Bruins defense, I am happy to grab the big plus money available on the over 5.5 in this one. I know Boston is going to respond on home ice and there is a chance they will go with just 5 defensemen in this one. Already without Kevan Miller, the Bruins Zdeno Chara is unlikely to play in Game 5 and Matt Grzelcyk is also listed as questionable. These injuries coupled with the fact that this game is in Boston and the Bruins are off a loss means I expect a big response here with plenty of emphasis on the attack in the offensive zone. Boston is going to bring tremendous pressure on Blues goalie Jordan Binnington in this one while, at the same time, I have no doubt that St Louis (full of momentum right now) can continue their "attack mode" on Bruins goalie Tuukka Rask. With wins in 2 of the last 3 games the Blues confidence is growing with each victory over Rask and let us not forget that St Louis has proven to have a "road warrior" mentality throughout this post-season. The Blues are 8-3 in their 11 road games in this post-season and St Louis has scored an average of 3.4 goals per game in their last 10 games away from home. The Bruins, prior to their Game 4 loss, had won 9 of their last 10 games and Boston scored an average of 4.1 goals per game in those 10 games. You can see, per the above, why I am expecting a 4-3 type game here. The over is 4-1 in the Blues last 5 games. Boston's most recent home game stayed under the total but that ended a streak that saw the Bruins go 4-0 in their last 4 home games. That trending resumes here as the over improves to 4-1 in these Stanley Cup Finals. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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06-06-19 | Twins v. Indians -100 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #922 Thursday 10* Top Play Cleveland Indians Money Line (-) vs Minnesota Twins @ 7:10 ET - This is one of those situations where many will play the team that is looking to avoid the series sweep. As long-time followers know, I am a contrarian and this is the ideal spot to be contrarian to the masses and back the home team with a quality pitcher on the mound as they go for the sweep. Trevor Bauer is starting to pitch like we're used to seeing him pitch. Jose Berrios is also certainly a quality pitcher but he struggles more on the road than at home and this includes his starts at Cleveland. As a result, getting the Tribe at home at an even money price is an absolute bargain. Bauer allowed just 2 earned runs in 7 innings in his most recent start and was mostly done in by poor defense behind him. That outing also was on the road. In his two previous starts, both at home, Bauer allowed only 9 hits in 12 innings of work. He has dominated the Twins in 3 straight starts. That includes in the last two outings as Bauer has allowed only 1 earned run on just 4 hits while striking out 20 in 13 innings of work! This is in stark contrast to many of Berrios number. The Twins right-hander had a strong start versus the Indians earlier this season but that was at home. In his two prior starts versus the Tribe, including 1 at Cleveland, Berrios allowed 8 earned runs in 10 innings and he had major command issues in his start at Progressive Field. The past 3 seasons combined Berrios is 11-16 on the road with a 5.31 ERA! Minnesota had been hot but they are cooling off now while the Indians are heating up and highly motivated here to continue closing the gap in the AL Central with yet another win over the first-place Twins. 10* CLEVELAND |
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06-06-19 | Yankees v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #919 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees @ 7:05 ET - Yesterday's game flew over the total and that game included the Blue Jays crushing the Yankees bullpen. Homers were aplenty in yesterday's games and I expect more of the same tonight. Toronto's J.A. Happ faces his former team here and I am well aware of the fact that he held them to 2 earned runs in 5 and 1/3 innings when he most faced them last season but he did allowed 7 hits in that start. The Blue Jays have plenty of confidence at the plate after last night's come from behind victory. The issue for Toronto, after scoring 11 runs last night, will be trying to stop the Yankees lineup from crushing them. That is a concern for certain with journeyman Edwin Jackson on the mound. The veteran right-hander has been a disaster since his first start last month. In 4 starts this season he has compiled a 13.22 ERA and been hit at a .390 clip! These are horrific numbers and unlikely to improve against a Yankees lineup that has scored an average of 6.7 runs per game in the 16 games since mid-May. The Blue Jays have now scored 25 runs in their last 3 home games as they continue to pound the ball at Rogers Centre. The over is an incredible 20-5-2 in Yankees road games this season. The over is 7-1-1 in the Blue Jays last 9 home games. Look for more of the same in this one! 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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06-05-19 | Raptors v. Warriors OVER 212.5 | Top | 123-109 | Win | 100 | 16 h 16 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #525 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Golden State Warriors vs Toronto Raptors @ 9:05 ET - The Raptors are looking to bounce back after taking a dozen more shots from the field than the Warriors took and yet still losing Game 2 in Toronto. Note that the over is 24-13 (including 9-4 this season) when the Raptors are playing with home loss revenge. Golden State's Klay Thompson played solid defense in Game 2 and that was considered a key catalyst in the win. It is likely he will play in Game 3 even though he is dealing with a hamstring issue but don't be surprised if that injury makes Thompson a little less effective on the defensive end. Speaking of holes defensively, the Warriors continue to be without Kevin Durant and he has already been announced as out for this game. So I am expecting a much better shooting performance from the Raptors in this one and, at the same time, I expect Steph Curry and company to have a huge shooting night on their home floor. Golden State will rally around the fact that this is their first home game since mid-May! In this post-season Warriors games are 11-6-1 to the over. In NBA Finals games Golden State is on a 7-3-1 run to the over. The Warriors have scored 109 points or more in 7 straight games. The Raptors had averaged 112 points per game in their 5-game winning streak that preceded the tough loss on Sunday. Look for this one to get into the 220 to 225 range. 10* OVER the total in Golden State |
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06-05-19 | Braves v. Pirates OVER 9 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #955 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves @ 7:05 ET - The Braves won 12-5 yesterday at Pittsburgh. That was the 5th straight Atlanta game to go over the total. As for the Pirates, the over is now 14-3-1 in their last 18 games. In home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs Pittsburgh is 7-1 to the over this season. The Pirates, overall, are a fantastic 19-9 to the over in home games on the season. Atlanta is scoring an average of 6 runs per game in their last 11 games. The Pirates have scored an average of 6 runs per game in their last 13 games. Pittsburgh's bullpen ERA ranks them as one of the worst in the majors. The Braves bullpen ERA ranks them only in the middle of the pack. In terms of starting pitching for this match-up, Atlanta is going with Kevin Gausman and the Braves right-hander is off a very poor outing. While one would think he should be in full bounce back mode here, the reality is that Gausman has an 8.31 ERA since late April and so getting back on track, particularly on the road, is not an automatic here. As for the Pirates, they are starting Joe Musgrove. The Pittsburgh right-hander is off a very rough month of May. Musgrove had an 8.10 ERA and was hit at a .302 clip in the month of May. That doesn't bode well for now facing a red hot Braves lineup. Considering all of the above, there should be runs early, often and throughout this contest. Look for the over to improve to 6-0 in Atlanta's last 6 games. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh |
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06-04-19 | Reds v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -114 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in St Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds @ 8:15 ET - This total opened up at a 9 but has dropped to an 8.5 in a number of shops as of early Tuesday morning. This is offering excellent line value with the over. The wind will be blowing out toward left-center in this one and there is reason to believe that both starting pitchers will struggle in this one. The Reds Luis Castillo has given up 11 hits and walked 7 in the 8 innings spanning his last two starts. Though he has had recent success against the Cardinals, the right-hander's current form suggests this will be a tough night for him. St Louis is at home and their lineup is very familiar with him. Castillo will be opposed by southpaw Genesis Cabrera of the Cards. The left-hander struggled in his MLB debut last week and that was against a Phillies lineup that has been struggling badly for weeks now! That is not a good sign for Cabrera as now he faces a Reds team that has been red hot. Another sign that points to struggling results being likely here is the fact that Cabrera had a 6.35 ERA at the AAA level this season before being called up. This is a guy that needs a lot more seasoning before he is ready to faced MLB hitters. I look for him to struggle badly in this one. The Reds have averaged 6.3 runs per game in their last 11 games and that is even with struggling at the plate in their 2 most recent games as they faced Fedde and Scherzer of the Nationals. Compared to those guys, Cabrera will look like he is throwing batting practice to the Cincinnati hitters in this one. The over is 4-0 in the Reds last 4 road games. The over is 32-19 when the Cardinals are playing after a day off. 10* OVER the total in St Louis |
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06-03-19 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -114 | 17 h 31 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #951 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 9:40 ET - Walker Buehler is off a rough start last week versus the Mets. The Dodgers right-hander allowed 5 earned runs in 5 innings. In his most recent start against the Diamondbacks, earlier this season, he allowed 5 earned runs in only 3 innings. As for Arizona starter Robbie Ray, he is also off a rough start. The Diamonbacks southpaw gave up 5 runs (4 earned) in less than 5 innings of work against the Rockies. Ray has been having issues with command and he also walked 5 against the Dodgers in just 5 innings when he faced the earlier this season. LA demolished the Phillies yesterday to wrap up a sweep of Philadelphia! The Dodgers have won 9 of their last 10 games and scored an average of 7 runs per game during this latest hot streak as they continue to play like the best team in baseball. The over is 10-3 in Dodgers road games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs this season. The over is 12-6 in divisional games for Los Angeles this season. As for the Diamondbacks, they are 17-10 to the over in divisional games this season. Arizona is off a 7-1 win yesterday and they have scored an average of 7 runs per game in their last 10 games. So you've got a pair of hot lineups matched up here and they are also familiar with the pitchers they'll be facing in this one. Couple that with a total posted at 8.5 runs and we've got great value. Each team just needs to get to 4 runs and we're guaranteed of a win as then the game has to end with at least a 5-4 final. 10* OVER the total in Arizona |
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06-03-19 | Bruins v. Blues -110 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 31 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NHL Rotation #8 Monday 10* Top Play St Louis Blues Money Line (-) vs Boston Bruins @ 8:05 ET - After getting demolished by the Bruins 7-2 on Saturday, the Blues would seemingly have no chance here. However, keep in mind, Boston went 4 for 4 on the power play in that game. Getting into the penalty box too often and also then not killing off the penalties led to a snowball effect that St Louis could not recover from. The key factor in Game 4 is that we have seen this Blues team respond after a loss throughout this post-season. When they won Game 2 in Boston, even though it took OT, they truly dominated that game even though it took extra time for the win. St Louis started Game 3 very strong in front of the home fans but then the collapse began and Boston stole the momentum. The Blues won't be so easily discouraged here in Game 4. I have seen the resiliency in this St Louis hockey club throughout the 2nd half of the season and into the post-season as well. Note that the Blues are 4-0 in this post-season when trailing in a playoff series. Going further back, St Louis is 10-2 the last dozen times they've entered a game off a loss. Boston has a losing record and down $3,000 the past 3 seasons combined when they enter a game leading in a playoff series. We saw what happened in Game 2 when the Blues were off a loss and now Game 4 is a similar situation plus St Louis will have the home fans behind them in this one. After allowing 4 or more goals, the Blues are 22-10 this season and Jordan Binnington and company will bounce back big in this one to, once again, even this series up. 10* ST LOUIS |
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06-02-19 | Warriors +2 v. Raptors | Top | 109-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #523 Sunday 10* Top Play Golden State Warriors (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - The Warriors are 12-5 SU and ATS when trailing in a playoff series. Golden State is 8-2 SU their last 10 games in NBA Finals and that is even after losing Game 1 of this series. Look for the Warriors, even though still without Durant, to respond big in Game 2. The earliest numbers that popped up offshore for this one had the Warriors as a slight favorite but now they are an underdog catching as many as 2.5 points as of early game day morning. Golden State is 21-7 SU when playing with revenge this season. Also, this will be the Warriors 4th straight road game but, interestingly, GS is 32-7 SU the last 39 times they have entered a game off of playing 3 or more consecutive road games. Toronto, in franchise history, is an ugly 6-11 SU when leading in a playoff series. The Raptors have covered 5 straight games but, prior to this, the longest ATS winning streak for Toronto this season was 4 straight games. You can see that the odds are certainly in favor of this streak coming to an end. It has been a great run for the Raptors but I also like the fact that Siakam shot a ridiculous 14 of 17 in Game 1. You know that numbers like that are not going to happen again here. Also, Green and Iguodala combined for 5 of 16 shooting including 0 of 6 from three point land for the Warriors. When you flip these numbers around to the normal range you will see that Golden State should respond and be on top in Game 2. That huge game for Siakam was the 4th time in May that he scored 20 or more points while also shooting at least 45% from the field. What happened after the 1st three? Siakam averaged just NINE points and shot just 33% from the field. Adjustments are made game to game and the Warriors have had plenty of time to make some key changes for their Game 2 planning. Much different result today. 10* GOLDEN STATE |
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06-02-19 | Marlins v. Padres OVER 7.5 | Top | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #911 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins @ 6:10 ET - Of course these are not the most impressive lineups in baseball by any stretch of the imagination. However, I like the fact that the Marlins exploded for 9 runs in yesterday's game, the Padres front-end of their lineup is solid, and this total is as low as a 7.5 in big books as of early game day morning. San Diego, prior to yesterday's loss, had won 7 of their last 10 games. In the Padres 7 victories, they averaged 6.4 runs per game. They can bounce back here while I look for the Marlins to build off yesterday's 9-run outburst. Yes, San Diego's Matt Strahm has strong numbers this season but his fastball velocity has decreased since getting moved up into the starting rotation for the Padres this season. Trevor Richards gets the start for Miami here and he is off a great start. However, the right-hander previously allowed 21 hits in the 17 innings spanning his 3 prior starts. Also, Richards has allowed 21 hits in 14 and 2/3 innings spanning his last 3 road starts. He allowed 4 or more earned runs in 2 of those 3 road outings! Look for the over to improve to 7-3 in San Diego's Sunday games this season. Also, this total is likely to move back up to an 8 today and the over is 11-5 this season in Padres games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs this season. The Marlins bullpen has a 5.24 ERA this season and that ranks them 2nd to dead last in the National League so far this season. Petco Park is known as a pitchers park but it is a little more hitter-friendly in day games and this one gets under one at 3 PM local time. 10* OVER the total in San Diego |
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06-01-19 | Bruins +105 v. Blues | Top | 7-2 | Win | 105 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NHL Rotation #5 Saturday 10* Top Play Boston Bruins Money Line (+) @ St Louis Blues @ 8:00 ET - Bad news for the Blues is that they have the home ice "disadvantage" here. All kidding aside, the fact is that road ice has been the "edge" for St Louis in this post-season. The same holds true for Boston as the Bruins are 6-2 on the road in this post-season including a perfect 4-0 their last 4 away from home. The suspension of Oskar Sundqvist also is more impacting than it may seem on the surface. Yes he is on the 4th line but that 4th line has been a key contributing factor to the Blues success in this post-season and he will miss this game. He also is key part of the penalty-killing unit for St Louis. The Bruins are 33-14 including 15-7 this season when they enter a game with two days of rest between games. St Louis is only 6-5 this season with two days of rest between contests. Keep in mind, the Blues also really tilted the ice in their favor after an embarrassing performance in the final two periods of Game 1. Now it is the Bruins turn as they got embarrassed in the Game 2 loss on home ice. Yes it was only a 3-2 loss and it came in overtime but Boston was thoroughly out-played. This was evident in the shots on goal stats as, after those heavily favored the Bruins in Game 1 those stats were heavily tilted in favor of the Blues in Game 2. The Bruins are 7-3 the last 10 times they were off a loss and I expect a huge response here and the price is right for backing them too. Since they are on the road, we have no juice factor here with the road team! 10* BOSTON |
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06-01-19 | Angels -110 v. Mariners | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach Rotation #969 Saturday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Angels Money Line (-) @ Seattle Mariners @ 7:15 ET - The Mariners got a tight 4-3 win in yesterday's game but only had 5 hits. Seattle has been struggling for an extended stretch while, prior to yesterday's loss, the Angels have been heating up and also remain hot at the plate. Los Angeles is hitting .291 in their past 7 games while the Mariners are hitting just .242 in their last 7 games. Prior to the defeat yesterday, LA had won 5 of their last 6 games and they had scored an average of 7.8 runs per game in their 5 prior games. The Mariners, prior to yesterday's win, had lost 9 of their past 10 games and had scored an average of only 3.6 runs per game in their last 9 games. The Angels hold a key match-up edge in this battle of southpaws as Seattle starting pitcher Tommy Milone has a rough history against LA. In his last 3 starts against the Angels, Milone has allowed 16 earned runs in just 8 and 2/3 innings! As for Los Angeles starter Andrew Heaney, he has a solid 3.60 ERA in his last 3 starts against Seattle while recording 19 strikeouts in 20 innings. In road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs, the Angels are 43-28 (+$23,000). In home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs, the Mariners are 20-27 (DOWN $12,000). Keep in mind, Seattle started this season 13-2. That means that the Mariners entered yesterday's action on an 11-33 (25%) run! The M's are 1-6 the last 7 times they were off a win. With this line in a "pick'em" price range, huge value is being offered on the road favorite. 10* LOS ANGELES ANGELS |
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05-31-19 | Brewers v. Pirates OVER 9 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 20 h 43 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #901 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 7:05 ET - These teams scored a bunch of runs early yesterday and then also got to the bullpens later. That is not a surprise as the Pirates bullpen has been among the worst in the majors this season while the Brewers rank only in the middle of the pack. With that said, a repeat today (and another high-scoring game) is quite likely. Of course same bullpens involved and Friday also features two struggling starting pitchers. Jhoulys Chacin gets the call for the Brewers and Chris Archer gets the call for the Pirates. The Pittsburgh right-hander has not lasted more than 5 innings in any of his last 5 starts and he has compiled an 8.74 ERA during this stretch. The Milwaukee right-hander has a 6.30 ERA in his last two starts and has allowed 15 hits in the 10 innings spanning those two outings. The over is 11-2-1 in the Pirates last 14 games after last night's game soared over the total. In the month of May, only 6 of Pittsburgh's 28 games have gone over the total. In home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs, the Pirates are 4-0 to the over this season. The Bucs have scored 5 or more runs in 5 of their last 6 games. The Brewers have scored an average of 6.4 runs per game in their last 7 games. Also, the weather conditions are projected to be favorable at PNC Park on Friday evening. All signs point to another game getting to double digits in runs here. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh |
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05-30-19 | Warriors v. Raptors OVER 213 | Top | 109-118 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #521 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Raptors vs Golden State Warriors @ 9:05 ET - This total opened up at a 215.5 and has dropped to as low as a 213 as of early game day morning. Certainly line value is on our side here. The Warriors are 5-1 to the over in their last 6 road games. When playing with 3 or more days of rest this season Golden State is 3-1 to the over. The over is 6-3 in the Warriors NBA Finals games the past two seasons. When on a winning streak of 3 or more consecutive SU wins, Golden State is 18-11 to the over this season. Toronto is 19-11 to the over this season when on a winning streak of 3 or more consecutive SU wins. The Raptors, when hosting the Warriors, are a perfect 4-0 to the over in their last 4 meetings. The Warriors have allowed 110 points or more in 5 of their last 6 road games. The Raptors, before being held to 100 points in their series-clinching Game 6 win versus Milwaukee last week, had averaged 114 points per game in their 4 prior home games. Yes there was some OT impact in those numbers but you can see from the type of numbers I am giving you here we certainly have some "wiggle room" with this low total. Keep in mind that a total as low as 213 means we just need to get each team to 106 points and we can't lose our play. With fresh legs for both teams and the Raptors playing fast in front of an electric home crowd and looking to take advantage of a Warriors team still without Kevin Durant, I look for plenty of points in this one as you know Golden State is going to "get theirs" too in this one! 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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05-30-19 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 12 | Top | 10-11 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #955 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 3:10 ET - It has been a very cool May in Denver but temperatures today will rise to near 70 degrees and hitter-friendly Coors Field also sees the ball carry even better in day games! This one starts at 1 PM local time and should involve plenty of fireworks from both lineups. The Diamondbacks Taylor Clarke is a rookie right-hander whom will be making his first ever start at Coors Field. More often than not rookies get pummeled in their first experience here. I feel this is especially likely with Clarke because he has faced the Giants and Rays in his only two MLB starts. Both those teams in the bottom third of the majors for runs scored this season. Now Clarke faces a Rockies team that is #1 in the majors for scoring at home as they average 6.0 runs per game in games played in Denver. The issue for Colorado today is their own starting pitcher is likely to struggle too. Kyle Freeland is having a very rough season. The Rockies southpaw has an 8.65 ERA in home starts this season. Those 5 outings are 4-1 to the over and that included Freeland getting pummeled by these same Diamondbacks for 8 earned runs in 6 innings earlier this month. He allowed 3 homers in that start and also allowed 2 homers in his most recent home start as well. Freeland was pounded by the Orioles in that start and I look for more big hits in this one as his struggles continue against a divisional foe whose lineup is very familiar with his offerings! The over is 13-6-2 in Arizona's games against left-handed starters this season. The over is 11-6-1 in Rockies day games this season. 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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05-29-19 | Blues +155 v. Bruins | Top | 3-2 | Win | 155 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
Playoff Game of the Year - Rickenbach NHL Rotation #3 Wednesday 10* Top Play St Louis Blues Money Line (+) @ Boston Bruins @ 8:05 ET - The Blues are now already left for dead by many because they lost Game 1 of this series. What seems to be forgotten is that Boston was on home ice and they were supposed to win Game 1. After all, the Bruins have now won 8 straight games and were a significant money line favorite in Game 1 and the same holds true in Game 2. However, one should not forget that St Louis entered this series having won 7 of their 9 post-season road games. The Blues have not lost back to back road games this entire post-season. St Louis was solid in the first period of Game 1 and then gave themselves a nice 2-goal lead early in the 2nd period. However, the Blues did not look the same after that and after the Bruins swung momentum by finally getting their first goal it was an ugly game for St Louis. They'll be much better in Game 2. Goalie Jordan Binnington played very well in Game 1 for the Blues. As for Boston goalie Tuukka Rask, he was hardly tested. That changes in Game 2. When the betting masses have already made a decision about a series that is when I like to be on the other side. The point is the Bruins played a great game after being down 2-0 on Monday. As a result, the betting market is already penciling in Boston as the Stanley Cup Champs. I am certainly not saying that won't happen but I look for a much different game Wednesday and I expect the Blues to find a way to even this series up. In recent seasons, when leading in a playoff series, Boston is only 6-6. Over the same time period, St Louis is 5-2 when trailing in a playoff series and that includes a perfect 3-0 in this post-season! The Blues are also 21-10 after a game in which they allowed 4 goals or more. Give me the big dog for a big play here and this game will surprise many! 10* ST LOUIS |
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05-28-19 | Cubs v. Astros OVER 9.5 | Top | 6-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #977 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Astros vs Chicago Cubs @ 8:10 ET - Yesterday's series opener went over the total and that snapped a stretch for the Astros that had seen them trending under in a big way. I wouldn't be surprised to now see Houston trending toward the over for a bit. Based on the pitching match-up today it looks great for another over. The Cubs are starting Jon Lester and he is struggling badly. The veteran southpaw has allowed 12 runs (9 earned) in just 8 and 1/3 innings spanning his last two starts. Also, the Chicago lefty has been hit very hard and has allowed 34 hits in the 21 innings spanning his last 4 starts. In the first two starts of this 4-game stretch Lester managed to escape damage but, as expected, the fact he has become very hittable has caught up to him as he has been rocked in his last two starts. As for Astros starter Corbin Martin, he had a great MLB debut but has struggled ever since. In his last two starts Martin has been fortunate he has not allowed even more earned runs than he has because he has struggled badly. The young right-hander has given up 11 hits plus walked 5 in just 7 and 1/3 innings spanning his last two starts. The Cubs have gone over the total in 6 straight games and 9 of their last 11 games! Chicago has averaged scoring 6 runs per game during this strong stretch at the plate. Even though Kris Bryant is likely out again today, Jason Heyward is expected to be back in the lineup today. Keep in mind both missed yesterday's game and it still flew over the total. As for the Astros sticks, they should enjoy facing Lester as lets not forget he got hit at a .303 clip after the All Star break last year and he is showing signs those struggles have carried into this year. He has been hit at well over a .300 clip in his last 4 starts. Also, though the Astros pen has been a strength this season, the Cubs pen has blown 11 of 21 save opportunities! 10* OVER the total in Houston |
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05-27-19 | Blues v. Bruins OVER 5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NHL Rotation #1 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Bruins vs St Louis Blues @ 8:05 ET - The fact this total has dropped to a 5 in some books gives us even more value. That means we only need each team to get to two goals and we can't lose this pick as the game would have to end 3-2 at the very least. There has been a very long layoff for the Bruins here and also a long layoff for the Blues. When that happens teams tend to not be as crisp with their passing and this often results in turning the puck over which then leads to odd man rushes going the other way. The point is I look for a bit of a craziness in this game one as the goalies (whom have played so well by the way) also may not be quite as crisp early on after all the time off. As a result we've got a lot of value with this low total. The over is 4-0-1 this season in Blues road games with a posted total of 5 or less goals. The over is 6-3-2 this season when St Louis is playing with 3 or more days of rest between games. The over is 6-3-1 this season when Boston is off a shutout win in their prior game. Now, about that magic number of getting to 2 goals for each team. The Blues have scored 2 or more goals in 29 of their last 31 games! The Bruins have scored 2 or more goals in 30 of their last 34 games. Boston enters this game on a 7 game winning streak and they have scored an average of 4 goals per game during this hot streak. St Louis has been incredible on the road throughout this post-season and the Blues have scored an average of 3.6 goals per game in their last 8 road games. More of the same expected here. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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05-27-19 | Indians v. Red Sox OVER 10 | Top | 5-12 | Win | 100 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #915 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Indians @ 4:05 ET - Rick Porcello has been pitching surprisingly well for Boston. However, the Red Sox right-hander faces a tough match-up here as the Indians gave him some trouble last season. Also, it will be a warm afternoon at Fenway Park this afternoon and the wind direction is a little uncertain as of early this morning but there are some forecast models showing it could be blowing out toward left field at a decent clip. With mild temperatures an afternoon game at Fenway Park can get quite crazy and, long-term, Porcello is known for giving up the long ball. The Indians, overall, have struggled at the plate for much of this season but this is a favorable match-up for them. Porcello has struggled more against lefties this season and he also has been roughed up in day games this year. Of course this is an afternoon game and, also, the Indians lineup is loaded with left-handed bats and switch-hitters. As for the Cleveland pitcher in this one, Jefry Rodriguez will be facing the Red Sox for the first time in his career. I don't expect it to go well at all. The right-hander is 0-2 in his last two starts and he allowed 3 homers in these outings plus gave up 4 earned runs in each outing. He's facing a Boston lineup that is known for pounding the ball when at home. Look for the over to improve to 5-1 this season in Cleveland's Monday games. I am well aware that Rodriguez starts have trended under all season long but there is a reason this total will get steamed today by the sharps. Its all about the match-ups! Look for the over to improve to 9-2 in Porcello's starts this season. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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05-26-19 | Orioles v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #979 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Baltimore Orioles @ 3:10 ET - The Rockies are starting German Marquez here and, like most Colorado pitchers, he is much better on the road than we he is at home. In his starts at Coors Field, Marquez got hit at .284 clip last season while compiling a 4.74 ERA. This season the numbers are even uglier as the Rockies right-hander has been hit at a .339 clip and compiled a 5.34 ERA in his starts at Coors Field. The over is a perfect 6-0 in the Orioles last 6 games and they have scored an average of 6 runs per game during this stretch. The over is 5-1 in the Rockies last 6 games and they have scored an average of 6.5 runs per game during this stretch. Coming off a 9-6 loss yesterday, look for the Colorado sticks to jump all over David Hess. The Baltimore right-hander leads the majors in home runs allowed and now makes his first ever start at Coors Field. This is not a good scenario for Hess! This is particularly true on a warm afternoon in Denver with low humidity as the ball is likely to be jumping off the bats. Hess is 1-6 with a 6.75 ERA this season and he has allowed 17 homers in 10 games (9 starts). Last year Hess went 1-7 with a 5.20 ERA on the road. Hess had a 6.06 ERA pre-all star break last year and is struggling even more in the first half of this season. A trip to Coors Field certainly is unlikely to result in improvement for him. Last but certainly not least, the Orioles bullpen ranks as the worst in the American League. The Rockies bullpen, as you would expect, struggles more at home where they have an ugly 5.47 ERA on the season. In other words, runs early often and throughout this matinee affair at Coors Field. 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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05-26-19 | Padres -104 v. Blue Jays | Top | 1-10 | Loss | -104 | 1 h 51 m | Show |
NOTE: Pitching change expected with Robbie Erlin now likely to go for the Padres instead of Chris Paddack. I still like San Diego in this match-up for a Top Play. This will likely turn this one into a "bullpen game" for San Diego and, as noted below, San Diego has the bullpen edge as well as the hitting edge in this match-up and I look for the hotter team to prevail here as Marcus Stroman's tough month of May resumes! ORIGINAL ANALYSIS: Earliest Cash - Rickenbach Rotation #975 Sunday 10* Top Play San Diego Padres Money Line (-) @ Toronto Blue Jays @ 1:05 ET - The Padres are the hotter team overall, have been the hotter team at the plate, have the hotter starting pitcher, and the better bullpen. That said, I won't hesitate to lay the manageable price here on the road and elevate this one to my highest rating. San Diego is in the -125 money line range here and that is a bargain considering the Padres slugging percentage of .515 over the past 7 days lays shame to the Blue Jays paltry .190 batting average over the same time span. The fact is that San Diego is hot and Toronto is not and it certainly goes beyond the hitters as well. The Padres are starting rookie phenom Chris Paddack and he has been a model of consistency so far this season. His Padres are 14-10 away from home this season and the Blue Jays are now 9-18 at home on the season and yet there is automatically home shading in in this money line because that is simply how baseball is priced. In other words, if this game was at San Diego the Padres would likely be at least a -175 favorite and yet they are in the -125 range even though they have been better on the road than at home and despite the fact that the Blue Jays have been worse at home than on the road! That is the ultimate definition of value and Paddack has a 1.93 ERA through his first nine starts with San Diego and that is the lowest ERA ever in Padres history for a starting pitcher through his first 9 starts! Marcus Stroman gets the call for the Blue Jays and though he deserves better than his 2-6 record, the fact is that he has struggled badly in the month of May. He was pitching much better earlier this season but has a 4.78 ERA this month which could easily be worse as Stroman has been knocked around at a .315 clip by opposing hitters! The Padres have won 5 straight and Toronto has lost 4 straight and all signs point to those trends continuing here. 10* SAN DIEGO |
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05-25-19 | Bucks +2.5 v. Raptors | Top | 94-100 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 59 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #511 Saturday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 8:30 - This line opened up at a pick'em and has risen to a -2.5 on the Raptors. Consider that Milwaukee also entered Game 4 off a loss in Game 3 of this series. The line for Game 4 was the Bucks -3. So now we have seen this line completely swing in the opposite direction. The last time these teams played in Toronto the Bucks were favored by 3 and now they are the underdog by 3 points. Of course that is not where the odds makers set the line, that is what the markets are forcing. Long-time followers know whom I like to side with in the majority of cases like this and this one is no exception. I'll side with the odds makers and fade the markets here. We are simply getting exceptional line value here. Milwaukee has lost 3 straight games for the first time this entire season. The Bucks also have failed to cover the spread now in 3 straight games which is also rare for them this season. The last two times that has happened they got blowout wins by a double digit margin in their next game both times. I am not saying we're going to necessarily see a road rout here but I am expecting an outright win and am happy to have the points on my side as added insurance. Milwaukee shot 45% from the field in Game 5 and held Toronto to 37%. So what happened in that game that led to the loss? The Bucks allowed too many uncontested threes. The Raptors had 18 threes compared to just 10 for Milwaukee. That is a difference of 24 points. At the free throw line Toronto outscored the Bucks by 12 points. When you consider those stats combine for a 36 point advantage and yet the Raptors only won the game by 6 points you can see why I am not so impressed by Toronto like the betting masses are. Give me the points here which is where the sharp money is very likely to go in this game! The Raptors don't have a good history in this situation as they are 5-11 SU when leading in a playoff series. The Bucks are 16-4 ATS (19-1 SU) when off of an upset loss as a favorite. 10* MILWAUKEE |
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05-25-19 | Rays +122 v. Indians | Top | 6-2 | Win | 122 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #919 Saturday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (+) @ Cleveland Indians @ 4:10 ET - The Rays gave up two runs in the bottom of the 8th to lose last night's game. I fully expect them to bounce right back today. Tampa Bay is still 16-8 on the road this season and that gives them the 2nd best road record in the majors this season. The Indians are one of the worst hitting teams in the majors and I expect Charlie Morton to enjoy plenty of success here. Yes, Morton is off a rare sub-par outing but the Rays right-hander simply made a few mistake pitches. He only allowed 4 hits in that start against the Yankees. In fact, Morton has allowed only 21 hits in his last 27 and 2/3 innings on the mound. On the season, Morton has held opponents to a .203 batting average! He'll be opposed by Carlos Carrasco and he has been roughed up in 3 of his last 5 starts. In those 3 outings (including 2 at home!), Carrasco has been rocked for 11 earned runs in 19 and 1/3 innings. Yes that equates to an ERA north of 5.00 and we're getting excellent line value with the road dog here. The Indians, even including yesterday's win, are still just 1-4 this season at home when the money line is +125 to -125. As for the Rays, they are 6-2 this season on the road when the money line is +125 to -125. Also, TB is a fantastic 12-5 this season when off a loss. Carrasco deserves respect but so does Morton and the latter is the more consistent of the two pitches. Couple that with the situational edge off a loss, the favorable money line as an underdog, and having the better hitting team on our side and this one is a top play situation. 10* TAMPA BAY |
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05-24-19 | White Sox v. Twins -1.5 | Top | 4-11 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #966 Friday 10* Top Play Minnesota Twins Run Line -1.5 runs vs Chicago White Sox @ 8:10 ET - The White Sox are very popular in the market place right now because everyone just witnessed them winning back to back games over the might Astros in Houston. Chicago wrapped up the 4-game series split with a 4-0 win last night. However, the White Sox and Reynaldo Lopez are being vastly overvalued here. Now, of course, I am not laying the money line on this game (-200 range) but we can get the Twins in the -105 or -110 range here simply by being willing to lay the 1.5 runs on the run line. I won't hesitate as I sense a home blowout in this game. Chicago's Lopez has struggled on the road all season. The White Sox right-hander has been hit at a .328 clip in his 3 road starts this season! It is not a fluke as last season he went 4-7 with a 4.20 ERA away from home. The prior season, in limited action, he had a 6.75 ERA in his 3 road starts. As for the Twins Jose Berrios, he is known for dominating at home. He is 4-1 with a 3.00 ERA in his home start this season. The prior two seasons he went 18-5 with a 2.79 ERA in home starts! Yes indeed he is 22-6 in his last 28 decisions at home. The White Sox have been strong the past two games but, prior to this, they scored an average of only 1.9 runs per game in going 2-5 their previous 7 games! As for the Twins, they are one of the hottest teams in MLB as they are 8-1 their last 9 games and have scored an average of 8.8 runs per game in those 9 games. The White Sox are 3-8 when off a shutout win. Minnesota is 20-4 as a home favorite in a money line range of -175 to -250. The Twins also are 29-11 against right-handed starters this season. Note that 21 of the 26 losses Chicago has this season have come by 2 or more runs. For the Twins, 25 of their 33 wins this season have come by 2 or more runs. Lay the -1.5 runs! 10* MINNESOTA RUN LINE |
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05-23-19 | Raptors v. Bucks -6.5 | Top | 105-99 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
Playoff Game of the Year - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #508 Thursday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks (-) vs Toronto Raptors @ 8:30 ET - It is truly entertaining to see how quickly market perception can swing on teams. Everybody is talking about the Raptors because they won big in Game 4. Lets not forget they barely won Game 3 on their home floor and it took double OT to do it. Lets not forget that Kawhi Leonard scored just 19 points in Game 4. That said, if you think his teammates are going to contribute on the road in Game 5 in the same way they did in Game 4 on Thursday, then you haven't been watching the Raptors for much of this post-season. This Toronto team relies heavily on Leonard and the fact he seemed to be favoring his leg at the end of the Game 3 marathon in which he played 52 minutes and then was held under 20 points in Game 4 should be a warning to Raptors supporters. I don't foresee Kyle Lowry having another huge game here. Keep in mind he had averaged just 13 points in the two prior games before scoring 25 on Tuesday. Also, he had averaged only about 12 points in the first two rounds of the post-season. Fred VanVleet and Serge Ibaka combined to shoot 12 of 18 off the bench at Toronto in Game 4. Again, very unlikely to see this again in Game 5 on the road. Milwaukee is going to be very aggressive Thursday and will have the support of the home crowd all the way through. Keep in mind the Bucks were very close to going up 3-0 in this series and yet now that it is 2-2 and the Raptors support players played so well in Game 4, everyone is talking about Toronto. You know what usually happens when the masses start to line up on one side don't you? The Bucks are the play here and should dominate this one. Milwaukee is 4-0 their last 4 home games and won those by an average margin of 19 points per game. The Bucks also went 2-0 at home in the first round of the post-season and the average margin was 28 points per victory. Milwaukee is off back to back losses for only the 2nd time this season. The one time it happened during the regular season they won their next two games, both at home, by an average margin of 18 points per game as both were blowout wins. Of course, one game at a time here for the Bucks but they haven't lost 3 straight games this entire season and certainly I expect this win to come by 7 or more points. Good line value with this line dropping to 6.5 in many of the big sports books as of early game day morning. The Raptors are 4-11 ATS when they enter a game off 3 or more consecutive overs. The Bucks are 16-3 ATS (19-0 SU) off an upset loss as a favorite and also 6-0 SU and ATS this season when off a loss by a double digit margin. Payback time. 10* MILWAUKEE |
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05-23-19 | White Sox v. Astros OVER 9 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #915 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox @ 8:10 ET - Lucas Giolito has surprisingly good numbers this season. But lets look at who he has faced recently. The White Sox right-hander, in 4 of his last 5 starts, has faced the Blue Jays twice plus the Royals and the Indians. None of those teams are known for their prowess at the plate. Note that Giolito's first start this season was also against the light-hitting Royals and was also a strong start. So how has he fared in his starts against quality teams this season? Giolito's other 3 starts have seen him allow 14 runs (12 earned) in 14 and 1/3 innings. Thursday he'll be facing an Astros lineup that is one of the best in baseball plus he is catching the Astros a day after his White Sox team upset Gerrit Cole and company in embarrassing 9-4 fashion. In other words, Houston is highly likely to be zoned in and respond well today at the plate. The issue for the Astros today will be their young starting pitcher Corbin Martin. The rookie right-hander struggled badly in his 2nd start after having a very successful start in his MLB starting debut. This is normal for a rookie pitcher. They are going to encounter early problems as they get adjusted to the MLB level. Martin is very likely to struggle Thursday against a White Sox team that is surging with confidence at the plate after putting up 9 runs yesterday. The over is 10-4-1 in Houston's games against teams with a losing record this season. In the 7 games this season with the Astros as a home favorite of -175 to -250, only 2 of the 7 have resulted in an under. 10* OVER the total in Houston |
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05-22-19 | Yankees v. Orioles OVER 10 | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #967 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees @ 7:05 ET - The Yankees are red hot at the plate and, in theory, could win this play for us practically all by themselves just with their own bats! Sound too good to be true? Consider that the Yankees have now won 3 straight games and scored at least 10 runs in all 3 of those victories! Also consider that New York will be facing a struggling Orioles starting pitcher, Daniel Straily, and a Baltimore bullpen that ranks dead last in the American League. The Orioles relief work this season has compiled a 6.12 ERA. The Yankees bullpen has been much better than that but still only ranks in the middle of the pack for bullpen ERA this season. As for the starting pitchers in this match-up, Straily is 0-3 with an 11.78 ERA in his 5 home appearances (4 starts) this season. Opponents are hitting a ridiculous .388 against Straily at Camden Yards and now he faces what has been the hottest lineup in the league over their last 3 games! As for Yankees starter CC Sabathia, he made 4 starts against the Orioles last season and walked away with just one victory! In those outings the southpaw compiled a 5.14 ERA and allowed 5 homers in just 21 innings of work. The veteran lefty is winless with a 4.70 ERA in his 3 road starts this season. The Orioles certainly are not a great hitting team but they have had success against Sabathia and they do tend to be stronger at home than on the road. With scoring 4 runs yesterday the Orioles have scored between 4 and 7 runs in 4 of their last 6 games. Also, when the Orioles are off a game in which they allowed double digits in runs, the over is now 6-1 this season! The Yankees are an incredible 15-4 to the over this season in road games! More of the same expected here! 10* OVER the total in Baltimore |
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05-21-19 | Bucks v. Raptors OVER 216 | Top | 102-120 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #503 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Raptors vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 8:35 ET - The markets often believe there is a certain magic to the numbers that, in reality, just isn't really there. After those holding under tickets in Game 3 absolutely did suffer a very bad beat because the game went to double OT that does not automatically mean that now the under comes in with this Game 4 match-up. That said, I am happy to grab the extra value being offered here. The books tried to hang a 220 on this game (and they were smart and logical in doing so) but the markets quickly bet it down. Now, as of early game day morning, the total is all the way down to a 216. Keep in mind, as ugly as the Sunday game was in the 2nd half and in the overtime periods, the game was on pace to go over as of halftime. What happened was unreal horrific shooting performances from a number of players and that led to ridiculously low-scoring in the 2nd half of Game 3. Do you really think those numbers are going to be repeated? There is no basis for that. Check these out: Bucks STARTERS Mirotic, Middleton, Bledsoe and Antetokounmpo combined for 14 of 59 - that is 23.7% shooting from the field! How about some Raptors numbers? Toronto's Green, Ibaka and VanVleet combined for 4 for 29 - that is 13.8% shooting from the field! Keep in mind, in the case of the Raptors, that is on their home floor no less! I expect some much better shooting performances in Game 4 and I expect that this game is going to have a much different flow than many are anticipating. The over is 7-1 in Milwaukee's last 8 road games. The over is 6-2 in the Raptors last 8 games against a Central Division opponent and the over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between these teams. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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05-21-19 | Sharks v. Blues OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 110 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
Playoff Total of the Year - Rickenbach NHL Rotation #25 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in St Louis Blues vs San Jose Sharks @ 8:05 ET - The Sharks are going to respond here after being held to a total of just one goal in the last two games in this series. Yes, San Jose is banged up. But I have seen this type of situation many times before in the past and it is going to bring out the best in the Sharks here and that means we're going to see a lot more scoring from San Jose in this one. They have to get back to what they were doing early in the series when the Sharks scored 13 goals in 3 games. They can do it again here. All the pressure is on the Blues and rookie goalie Jordan Binnington. I am well aware of the fact that he has been playing great but it is not like he has stone walled the Sharks throughout this series. Look for a very gritty effort from San Jose in this one as they repeat the goal-scoring success they displayed earlier in the series. So why not have the Sharks as my big play in Game 6? The issue with that is Martin Jones between the pipes. It certainly has not been his best post-season and he has an ugly .875 save percentage in his last 3 road starts. That was even with the last one being a good one. He allowed 2 goals in Game 4 of this series but each of his prior road games saw him allowed 4 goals in each start. Overall, after a poor Game 5 on home ice, Jones has allowed 4 or more goals in 3 of his last 4 games. As a result, look for this game to have a lot more goal-scoring than most are anticipating. When the Sharks are playing with home loss revenge this season, the over has cashed 14 of 20 times. Look for another one here! 10* OVER the total in St Louis |
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05-21-19 | Rockies v. Pirates OVER 7.5 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
Early Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #903 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado Rockies @ 7:05 ET - High temperatures will be close to 70 degrees in Pittsburgh today and both of these teams were off yesterday. That means both lineups should be fully stacked and in good shape here and we've got a very low total to work with here. The reason for the low total makes sense because it is based on the long-term reputation of both German Marquez and Chris Archer. However, the low total is also creating a ton of value when you consider the fact that both Marquez and Archer have been struggling plus the fact that both of these teams have been trending over for an extended stretch! The over is 12-4-1 in the month of May in Pirates games. Also, the over is 16-4-1 in the Rockies last 21 games! Colorado has scored an average of 6.3 runs per game their last 9 games. Pittsburgh has scored an average of 5.1 runs per game their last 8 games. The Rockies Marquez has a 6.00 ERA in his last 3 starts and all three of those outings resulted in an over. The Colorado right-hander has allowed 20 hits in the 12 innings spanning his last two starts. The Pirates Archer has a 10.66 ERA in his last 3 starts and each of his last two outings have resulted in a over. The Pittsburgh right-hander has given up 13 runs (12 earned) in less than 8 innings of work spanning his last two starts. When playing after a day off the Rockies have had only 2 unders in 8 occurrences this season. The Pirates are a long-term 28-16 to the over when playing after a day off. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh |
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05-20-19 | Warriors v. Blazers +4 | Top | 119-117 | Win | 100 | 14 h 48 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #502 Monday 10* Top Play Portland Trail Blazers (+) vs Golden State Warriors @ 9:05 ET - With Damian Lillard reportedly dealing with a significant rib injury and the Trail Blazers down 3-0 in this series the handwriting appears to be on the wall for Portland. However, even with Lillard struggling the Blazers were up huge in Game 3 before the Warriors roared back for the win. Of course in Game 2 (admittedly when Lillard was healthier) Portland also had a great shot at the win but it slipped away late in the 3-point loss. The fact is that, ever since Game 1 when the Trail Blazers appeared fatigued from their series with the Nuggets that went the full seven games, Portland has been ultra competitive with Golden State. I just don't see them getting swept out of the playoffs by losing this one on their home floor. The Blazers have showed me enough (even with Lillard hurting) that I fully expect them to win this game tonight. I will grab the points being offered (as many as 4 available in some spots) but will look for the outright win. Note that Golden State has failed to cover 24 of 38 times this season when they are off a win that came by a victory margin of 10 or more points. The Trail Blazers, prior to Saturday's loss, had been a PERFECT 3-0 ATS in this post-season when trailing in a playoff series. They let that Game 3 slip away just like they let Game 2 slip away on the road. Look for the Blazers to prove to be the hungrier and more determined team tonight. It is often when a team is left for dead by the masses that they rise up and play their best game (especially when at home) and that is what I fully expect here. 10* PORTLAND |
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05-20-19 | Yankees v. Orioles OVER 9.5 | Top | 10-7 | Win | 101 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #963 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees @ 7:05 ET - These lineups are very familiar with the pitchers they are facing in this one. The Yankees JA Happ has already faced the Orioles 3 times this season! In those starts the Yanks southpaw has allowed 5 homers in only 13 and 2/3 innings of work! The Orioles Andrew Cashner will be facing the Yankees for the third time already this season. The Baltimore right-hander has been rocked for 8 earned runs in 10 innings of work against the Yanks this season. I am well aware of the fact that Cashner was stronger at Yankee Stadium last week and has some decent home numbers this season, but all this repetition for these pitchers against the same hitters so frequently is going to lead to troubles tonight. It is going to be very hitter-friendly conditions in this one as the weather continues to warm along the east coast in what has been a later spring than usual this year. Note that 16 of the last 22 meetings between these teams (including all 3 this season!) have gone over the total. The Yankees are 13-4 to the over in road games this season. As a home dog in a range of +125 to +175, the Orioles are 8-4 to the over this season. More of the same expected Monday as note that the O's also have the worst bullpen in the American League with a 5.96 ERA on the season. 10* OVER the total in Baltimore |
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05-19-19 | Bucks v. Raptors OVER 219.5 | Top | 112-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
Playoff Total of the Year - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #549 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Raptors vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 7:05 ET - The Bucks most recent road game stayed under the total but that ended a perfect 6-0 streak of overs in Milwaukee road games. The fact is that the Bucks are truly proving very difficult to stop as they have scored 28 points or more in 6 of the last 7 quarters in this series. In addition to Milwaukee piling up the points, I also like the fact that the Raptors are now back home and they did score 64 points in the 2nd half of Game 2 which gives them some momentum and confidence on the offensive end despite being in an 0-2 hole in the series. Also, Toronto jumped on the Bucks in Game 1 of this series with a 59 point first half. They just couldn't sustain it. But, at home, the Raptors are likely to sustain a strong performance on offense and, at the same time, I just don't see them stopping Milwaukee considering how potent their production on offense has been. The Bucks are not only 6-1 to the over in their last 7 games away from home, they are also 8-4 to the over this season in games in which they are an underdog. Toronto is 19-11 to the over when playing with revenge this season. The Raptors are averaging 114 points in home games this season while Milwaukee averages 117 points per game in road games this season. Yes this is playoff basketball but we've seen huge scoring stretches from both teams already in this series and I like the fact the Raptors are on their home floor and need to respond with a huge performance on the offensive end but also won't be able to stop the Bucks. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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05-19-19 | Blues +120 v. Sharks | Top | 5-0 | Win | 120 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach NHL Rotation #21 Sunday 10* Top Play St Louis Blues Money Line (+) @ San Jose Sharks @ 3:05 ET - The Sharks look like an easy choice here, right? They managed to even the series up by winning Game 3 at St Louis and they now have the home ice edge again in the series as a result. However, I love the Blues in this spot. The reasons are multiple. For one thing Erik Karlsson is a key player for San Jose and he does have an injury issue right now. A lot of details are currently known in terms of his availability today but, even if he plays, he is nowhere close to 100%. The key here is that the Sharks had a chance to go in for the kill against the Blues in Game 4 and take a commanding 3-1 series lead. The Blues were on the ropes after a frustrating Game 3 loss. In my mind Game 4 was the game for the Sharks to put away St Louis as the Blues would have been fragile mentally after the way they felt they lost Game 3 in OT on a missed call. As it turns out, San Jose failed to take advantage of the situation and St Louis has new life in this series and they will play like it today. Keep in mind the Sharks blew leads of 2-0 and 3-1 in Game 3 of this series and were a bit fortunate to get the win. Then in Game 4 San Jose was down 1-0 right away and eventually 2-0 and they never managed to tie it up. There is a lot to like about the way the Blues have been playing and I am happy to grab them at the underdog price. What about the home ice edge you say? Well the road team is 11-6 in St Louis' playoff games in this post-season! Also, the Blues have won 6 of their 8 playoff road games. 10* ST LOUIS |
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05-19-19 | Dodgers v. Reds OVER 9 | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 3 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #905 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 1:10 ET - It will be another hitter-friendly afternoon at a very hitter-friendly venue on Sunday afternoon. No need to rest any hitters here either as both teams have an off-day tomorrow. After the Reds got shutout Friday and the Dodgers got shutout Saturday, look for both teams to finally contribute well to the total in Sunday's match-up. Yes, the Dodgers Hyun-Jin Ryu gives the appearance (from his last 3 starts) that he is practically unhittable, note that this match-up will play out much differently. First off all 3 of those starts were at pitcher-friendly venues - 2 at Dodger Stadium and 1 at San Francisco against the punch-less Giants. In his last 3 starts against the Reds, Ryu has a 5.79 ERA and has allowed 22 hits (including 5 homers) in just 14 innings of work. The Dodgers southpaw gave up 4 earned runs in 7 and 1/3 innings spanning his first two road starts this season. He'll be tested big time this afternoon at hitter-friendly Cincy on a warm afternoon with the wind blowing out to left at a strong clip. The Dodgers should also pound Tanner Roark. He is on the fade right now and gave up 8 hits in 5 innings in his most recent start. Simply put, he was lucky the damage wasn't worse in terms of earned runs and that means his status as a "fade candidate" is currently flying "under the radar". We can step in and take advantage. Roark's recent stats were skewed by facing the A's at Oakland and facing the light-hitting Giants. Note that in his other starts this season he has been consistently hit quite hard and I look for the Dodgers to light him up after being shutout yesterday. This is a contrarian play compared to what the markets are seeing and that is precisely the type of play I love the most as we get the best value. 10* OVER the total in Cincinnati |
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05-18-19 | Warriors v. Blazers -2 | Top | 110-99 | Loss | -113 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #548 Saturday 10* Top Play Portland Trail Blazers (-) vs Golden State Warriors @ 9:05 ET - The home team has won 3 straight in match-ups between these teams. The Trail Blazers have won 3 of the last 4 meetings in Portland. Many will be happy to grab the Warriors plus the points in the rare role of an underdog for them but, in typical contrarian fashion I am going against Golden State here. The Blazers actually had a 15 point lead at halftime of Game 2. Portland trailed by only 6 points heading to the 4th quarter in Game 1. The point is that the Trail Blazers saw each game slip away from them in the 4th quarter as, even after a horrific 3rd quarter in Game 2, they were still tied going to the 4th and had a late lead before falling just short. These things are understandable on the road. But, at home, I don't expect Portland to collapse late as they have done in each of the first two games. The fact that the Warriors are finding out that Kevin Durant's injury is a little worse than originally thought is also unlikely to help the psyche of Golden State heading into this one. As for the Trail Blazers, they will have a high motor in this game as they are back home and ready to get right back into this series after letting each of the first two games slip away late. The Game 2 loss was particularly disheartening for the Blazers but heading back home after that 3-point defeat will have Portland firing on all cylinders in this one. The Trail Blazers are 23-3 SU in their last 26 home games. The Warriors are 3-5 ATS in their last 8 road games. 10* PORTLAND |
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05-18-19 | Dodgers v. Reds OVER 9.5 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #953 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 4:10 ET - The Dodgers delivered the shutout win last night. The over is 20-11 when Los Angeles is off a game in which they shut out their opponent. I look for the over to improve to 8-4 this season in LA day games. The weather will be hot and steamy in Cincinnati this afternoon with the winds blowing out toward left center. These are the types of weather days where Great American Ball Park (known as a very hitter-friendly venue) plays out particularly well for the hitters. Even though Walker Buehler has good numbers this season the over is 3-1 in his road starts as he has compiled a 5.40 ERA away from home thus far. Buehler has had success in his two career starts against the Reds but both those were at pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium. Now with Cincinnati getting a shot at him at home and with the fact they just faced him last month, I look for the Reds sticks to perform much better today. Keep in mind, Cincinnati had scored an average of 7 runs per game in their 7 home games prior to being shutout last night. As for the Dodgers bats, they have scored 6 runs in 3 of their last 4 games and should enjoy success against Tyler Mahle in this one. LA just faced him last month and got to him for 4 earned runs on 11 hits in just 6 innings of work. The only other start Mahle has against the Dodgers saw him walk 4 batters in just 5 innings of work. You can see why success is unlikely for the Reds right-hander today. Cincy is off rare back to back unders at home as the over was on a 6-1 run in the Reds 7 home games prior to this. All signs point to both teams having plenty of success at the plate in this one. 10* OVER the total in Cincinnati |
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05-17-19 | Raptors v. Bucks OVER 216 | Top | 103-125 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #545 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Bucks vs Toronto Raptors @ 8:35 ET - Inexplicably, the Raptors fell apart in the 4th quarter Wednesday. Inexplicably, Toronto has shot 38.2% or less from the field in back to back games. Of course the result has been back to back unders but Game 1 of this series totaled 208 points even though neither team shot above 39.8% from the field and that tells you quite a lot! The fact is that with even just a slight uptick in shooting percentages (and certainly an improvement is likely given the long-term history of these teams) we should easily get past this total. The Game 2 total is now lower than the Game 1 total even though one could easily argue that it should be higher given how bad the shooting was Wednesday and yet the game still totaled 208. I see this one flying over the total. The Bucks will be going for the kill as they can sense blood in the water and a chance to go up 2-0. The Raptors hungry to atone for their horrific 4th quarter in Game 1 and Toronto will be very aggressive in transition and in the offensive end as they bounce back from B2B poor efforts offensively. There have only been 4 other times this season that the Raptors have been held to 41.6% or less from the field in back to back games. ALL FOUR times their next game has gone OVER the total. Also, Toronto is 11-4 to the over in Friday games this season. Milwaukee has now recorded 3 straight unders. Dating all the way back the Christmas, when the Bucks enter a game off 3 or more consecutive unders, the over has gone 5-1 and I expect these situational trends to continue to be spot on! 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee |
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05-17-19 | Sharks +124 v. Blues | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
Playoff Annihilation - Rickenbach NHL Rotation #17 Friday 10* Top Play San Jose Sharks Money Line (+) @ St Louis Blues @ 8:05 ET - On the one hand, many will be looking at the Blues to bounce back here on home ice in Game 4 after the way Game 3 finished. In that game Wednesday St Louis allowed the tying goal with just a minute to go in the 3rd period and then gave up a controversial game-winning goal in overtime. However, I view this quite differently. First off, the Sharks have all the momentum off that win. Secondly, San Jose twice had a two goal lead in that game (up 2-0 and up 3-1) and they know they never even should have put themselves in that spot. Thirdly, all the pressure on the Blues here as they know that going into a 3-1 series hole with 2 of the next 3 games (if necessary) on enemy ice would likely prove insurmountable. So the Sharks come into this game relaxed and confident while the Blues are putting a lot of pressure on themselves and still distracted by the Game 3 ending. Last, but certainly not least, I feel it can not be ignored that home ice has been a hindrance rather than a help in playoff games involving St Louis is in this post-season. The road team has prevailed in 11 of the Blues 16 games in these playoffs. Look for the Blues to drop to 3-11 in their last 14 games in conference finals action. Contrarian play I know but this has worked very well for me throughout this post-season. 10* SAN JOSE |
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05-17-19 | Rockies v. Phillies -117 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #904 Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) vs Colorado Rockies @ 7:05 ET - The Rockies are hitting just .217 on the road this season. Of course they have never seen Phillies rookie Cole Irvin as he just made his MLB debut in a start versus the Royals Sunday. The Philadelphia southpaw was very impressive and certainly earned a second start as the Phils are evaluating him for a possible spot in the rotation. The Rockies are different team when they are away from their hitter-friendly home venue - Coors Field in Denver. That said, I like backing this Phillies team in a bounce back spot as they have lost 3 straight games and all were at home! This matches Philadelphia's longest losing streak of the season and they snapped that one at 3 games and I feel strongly they will do the same here. Yes, Colorado's Jon Gray did have a strong start versus the Phillies last month and has a decent history against them. However, Gray has never won at Citizens Bank Park and allowed 4 earned runs in his most recent outing here. Also, the Rockies right-hander has had trouble with the Phillies 4 key off-season acquisitions too. Harper, Realmuto, McCutchen, and Segura all have great numbers against Gray. Since his strong start against the Phillies, Gray has actually been struggling as he has a 7.16 ERA and 1.78 WHIP in his 3 starts since then. The Rockies have lost 13 of 21 this season when off a loss. The Phils have won 12 of 18 when off a loss this season. The Phillies also have won 3 of 4 this season when off a game in which they allowed double digits in runs. After getting embarrassed by losing 3 straight to the Brewers after winning the series opener, the Phils get back on track with a big home win against a lesser foe as the road-adverse Rockies come to town. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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05-16-19 | Blazers +7.5 v. Warriors | Top | 111-114 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #543 Thursday 10* Top Play Portland Trail Blazers (+) @ Golden State Warriors @ 9:05 ET - The Blazers shot 36% in Game 1 while the Warriors shot 50%. Portland turned the ball over 21 times compared to Golden State giving it up just 14 times. Even with that, the Trail Blazers were down by just a single digit margin with under 5 minutes to go before the wheels completely came off in the eventual loss by 22 points. The fact is we're getting great line value to again be offered the same line in Game 2 with Kevin Durant again out for Golden State and with the Blazers very likely to play much better in this one. This season, when Portland is on the road and coming off a game in which they were held to less than 100 points, the Trail Blazers are a perfect 4-0 ATS! This season, the Warriors are 3-6 ATS when they are off a game where they allowed less than 98 points. The fact is that game one was an unusual result and you can see what recent history suggests happens after a game like that and I see Portland coming up huge in game two. Damian Lillard's hamstring issue is minor and the Blazers have not failed to cover back to back meetings with the Warriors since their playoffs series two years ago! In meetings between these teams since April 24, 2017 the Trail Blazers were 5-2 ATS before failing to cover Game 1 of this series. Look for the bounce back here and at least the cover as an outright upset would not surprise me here! Look for the Warriors to drop to 3-6 ATS in this post-season when leading in a playoff series and keep in mind Golden State is only 4-4 SU in these playoffs when they hold the lead in a series. 10* PORTLAND |
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05-16-19 | Bruins v. Hurricanes OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NHL Rotation #15 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Carolina Hurricanes vs Boston Bruins @ 8:05 ET - I look for a wide-open game here after Game 3 was a 2-1 final. The fact is the Bruins are up 3-0 in this series and can go in for the kill. I expect Boston to be very aggressive here as a result as they would love to finish this off now. As for Hurricanes, they have totaled only 5 goals in this series thus far. There is no tomorrow for Carolina if they lose on Thursday. That said, they know they need to take chances in Game 4, they need to be willing to risk some defensive shortfalls by being more aggressive with risk-taking to create the highest quality scoring chances possible. Of course that is because Tuukka Rask is currently on an incredible run for the Bruins. He has been fantastic between the pipes but I expect Carolina to throw everything but the kitchen sink at him in this one. Prior to Game 3 staying under the total, the Hurricanes were 4-0 to the over in their 4 prior games overall. Also, Carolina entered Game 3 on a 3-0 run to the over in their 3 prior home games. As for the Bruins, they have scored an average of 4 goals per game in their last 6 games. I look for the Boston scoring surge to resume here after the initial rally around the Hurricanes goalie change has now subsided. Going to McElhinney in Game 3 produced better results for the Hurricanes but they still lost and their focus in this Game 4 is on offensive production as they simply must solve Rask. To do that, as noted above, taking a few more chances with their game plan and style of play is absolutely paramount. 8 of 11 meetings, prior to Tuesday's game, had gone over the total and these teams resume normalcy in their series and combine for another one going over the total in Game 4 on Thursday. 10* OVER the total in Carolina |
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05-16-19 | Rangers v. Royals OVER 10 | Top | 16-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 46 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #963 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Kansas City Royals vs Texas Rangers @ 1:15 ET - Perfect set up here in many ways. Yesterday's game was a 6-1 Rangers win that stayed under the total so that is helping to keep this total off the radar of the betting markets as, to many, a 10 may look too big. The fact is that this should be an absolutely slugfest. The temperatures will be in the 80s this afternoon in Kansas City. The wind will be blowing out at Kauffman Stadium. The Rangers bullpen (4.87 ERA) and the Royals bullpen (4.59 ERA) both rank among the worst in the majors! As for the starting pitching match-up here we have Lance Lynn for Texas and Homer Bailey for KC. The fact is that Lynn has seen his better years at the major league level. He has a 5.48 ERA this season and a 5.13 ERA in his career starts against the Royals. Lynn allowed 3 homers at Houston in his most recent start and this followed an outing where he allowed 5 earned runs in 6 innings against the Blue Jays. As for Bailey, he is off a rare strong start. Yes, prior to a solid outing against the Phillies, he also was successful but that was against the punch-less Tigers. In his two outings prior to that Bailey gave up 8 earned runs in 7 innings of work. From 2015 to 2018, Bailey was hit at a better than .300 clip all 4 seasons and he compiled an ERA north of 6.00 in those 4 seasons combined. He has trended better than usual early this season but still his overall numbers are not that impressive and you know a regression to the mean is right around the corner. Look for it to begin today in very hitter friendly conditions at Kauffman Stadium. The over is 10-2 in Rangers day games this season. The over is 19-8 this season in Royals games when they are off a loss. KC also is a solid 13-7 to the over in day games. 10* OVER the total in Kansas City |
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05-15-19 | Raptors v. Bucks OVER 216.5 | Top | 100-108 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #531 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Bucks vs Toronto Raptors @ 8:30 ET - The Raptors Game 7 against the 76ers was a very ugly game as it seemed all the Toronto players (other than Kawhi Leonard) were tentative as they avoided being aggressive in terms of shooting the ball or driving to the hoop. Everyone just looked to get the ball to Leonard. The strategy eventually paid off (barely) and the Raptors won the game on the already infamous last season quadruple bounce shot from Kawhi. The fact is that ugly result is helping lead to some line value here as this total has dropped to as low as a 216.5 early this morning. This one is likely to play out much differently as the Raptors will be more aggressive all over the floor on offense but I don't foresee them stopping these Bucks either. Milwaukee, of course, is entering this game with plenty of rest and their fresh legs will be happy to push the pace as they look to run Toronto up and down the court all night long. The Bucks know the rest factor is strongly in their advantage. Milwaukee had that one ugly game against Boston in Game 1 but that is the only time in their last 16 games that the Bucks have been held to less than 113 points! Talk about consistency on offense! Milwaukee has averaged 123 points per game in those 15 games! So if they were to hit their normal average over the past 7 weeks and the odds makers are right about the line on the side here, this final scored would be 123 to 117 and total 240 points. Now I am not saying it will hit that high but I am saying that based on the way the Bucks have been playing and the likely style they will play tonight, we have a lot of value with the rather low total posted on this game! Milwaukee's final two games with the Celtics in the second round stayed under the total but truly Boston was horrific on offense. Note that, prior to that, the over was 11-3 in the Bucks last 14 games. The Raptors are playing this game with home loss revenge and that is a situation that has seen them go 26-12 to the over including 10-3 to the over this season! 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee |
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05-15-19 | Sharks +125 v. Blues | Top | 5-4 | Win | 125 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NHL Rotation #13 Wednesday 10* Top Play San Jose Sharks Money Line (+) @ St Louis Blues @ 8:05 ET - After losing game two on home ice I am fully expecting a huge response from the Sharks in game three as this series shifts to St Louis. When tied up in a playoff series in this postseason San Jose has been fantastic as they have won 4 of 5. The Blues, prior to Monday's win, had lost 9 of their last 11 games in conference finals action. Also, the Sharks, prior to Monday's loss, had won 5 of the last 7 games between these hockey clubs. St Louis playoff games in this postseason have been dominated by the road team. With the Blues upset win in Game 2 the road team has won 10 of 15 games in St Louis postseason action this spring. I look for that trend to continue here with another road upset as the veteran goalie Martin Jones and the Sharks bounce back against the rookie goalie Jordan Binnington and the Blues. 10* SAN JOSE |
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05-15-19 | Pirates v. Diamondbacks OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-11 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #901 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 3:40 PM ET - This total dropping to a 7.5 has opened up some great value with the over. Of course the total was low to begin with because of Zack Greinke being on the mound for Arizona. Chris Archer goes for Pittsburgh and, though not at Greinke's level, he also is a respected pitcher. However, the key to the value here is the low total combined with a couple other key factors. For one thing, Archer has been out for a couple weeks with right thumb inflammation. I don't expect him to be operating at his highest level in his first start back. He has a 5.73 ERA on the road this season and struggling more away from home is not a new trend either. Entering this season, Archer had a 4.92 ERA away from home in the past 3 seasons combined. Greinke does have a history of success against the Pirates but Pittsburgh has been extra scrappy of late and playing their best ball of the season. I would not be surprised to see them enjoy some moderate success today against Greinke as the Bucs have won 9 of their last 13 games. With yesterday's 6-2 win here at Arizona, the Pirates have scored an average of 5 runs per game in their past 10 games. The Diamondbacks, prior to being held to just 2 runs in yesterday's loss, had averaged scoring 5 runs per game in their past 11 games. The over is a perfect 5-0 the last 5 times the Dbacks were off a game in which they were held to 2 or less runs. The Pirates over was 8-2-1 in May prior to yesterday's game staying under the total. Since April 21st, Pittsburgh has recorded back to back unders only ONE single time. That said, though this may be viewed as a contrarian play here I look for this game to get over the total as the hitters are going to surprise in this one. There are 15 teams in the National League and, in terms of bullpen ERA this season, the Pirates rank 12th and the Diamondbacks rank 13th. We should be in line to get some late inning runs if needed but I do expect some runs early and often in this one. 10* OVER the total in Arizona |
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05-14-19 | Blazers +7.5 v. Warriors | Top | 94-116 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
Playoff Hot Side - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #533 Tuesday 10* Top Play Portland Trail Blazers (+) @ Golden State Warriors @ 9:05 ET - Without Kevin Durant, the Warriors are impacted more than just on the offensive end. Golden State allowed 47% to the Rockets in Game 6 without Durant on the floor. Note that the Blazers come into this match-up having allowed only 41.5% from the field in their last 6 games against the Nuggets. 3 of those 6 games were played on Denver's homes floor where they are so tough. The fact is that there are still many doubters about Portland but this team is for real. The Trail Blazers saw CJ McCollum take over in Game 6 at Denver when Damon Lilliard was having a rare sub-par game. That gives Portland a strong enough backcourt to compete with the Warriors. The fact that Rodney Hood is doubtful for this game does hurt the Blazers depth in their frontcourt (already without Jusuf Nurkic of course) but keep in mind the Warriors are not only without KD but also DeMarcus Cousins. Portland has won 4 of the last 6 meetings between these teams and that includes the most recent meeting at Golden State. The Blazers are 10-4 SU in their last 14 games and I like having them plus big points as they will be going hard in Game 1 to steal a game at Golden State while Durant is out. The Warriors got the outright upset at Houston in Game 6 but were 4-9 ATS in their 13 prior games. Golden State is also 2-5 ATS when off an outright upset win as an underdog. Also, the Warriors are 11-24 ATS their last 35 Tuesday games. I find it hard to believe that the Warriors are justified in being a 7.5 point favorite here over the Blazers when this very same lineup was a 7.5 point dog at Houston! Even factoring in home court of 3 points each way that is still saying that the Rockets are 9 points better than the Blazers! I don't believe that for a second. Yes the Warriors have a rest edge here but Portland did have two days off before facing Denver on Sunday and they are riding a positive wave of emotion right now. I look for the Blazers to be in this one all the way. 10* PORTLAND |
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05-14-19 | Bruins v. Hurricanes -110 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
Playoff Dominator - Rickenbach NHL Rotation #12 Tuesday 10* Top Play Carolina Hurricanes Money Line (-) vs Boston Bruins @ 8:05 ET - Desperate times bring desperate measures and you will see a desperate Hurricanes team doing everything they can here on home ice to get back into this series. Yes, the first two games ended up being ugly losses at Boston but remember that Carolina was also left for dead after dropping the first two games of their first round series with the Capitals. The Hurricanes responded by winning 4 of the last 5 including all 4 on home ice. In fact, the Canes enter this Game 3 match-up having won 7 straight at home and also 21 of their last 26 games as a host! Yes indeed, Carolina is tough in Raleigh and they also are 10-1 this season in home games with a posted total of 5.5 goals. The Bruins have lost 6 of their last 10 (-$3,600) when leading in a playoff series. Shots on goal were equal in the first two games in this series but Boston won big thanks to special teams play and, arguably, some shoddy goaltending on the part of the Hurricanes. Whether it is Mrazek or McElhinney between the pipes for Carolina you can fully expect a response from the home team in this one and a much better effort both in front of the netminder as well as from the goalie himself. We've seen this before with the Hurricanes and I don't see them being denied here. 10* CAROLINA |