Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-25-23 | Crystal Palace v. Wolverhampton Wanderers OVER 2 | Top | 0-2 | Push | 0 | 6 h 19 m | Show |
Rotation #200073: English Premier League Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 2 in Wolverhampton vs Crystal Palace @ 2:30 ET - Crystal Palace is off a scoreless draw last week so the low total of 2 here makes sense in that regard. However, under Hodgson, Palace has been revitalized and I am not going to let one tough effort against a nemesis impact the thought process here. The fact is that Crystal Palace had won 3 straight matches and scored an average of 3 goals per match. As for Wolverhampton, they should also get on the board here on their home pitch and they also have had just 2 draws in 16 home matches this season. In other words, a 1-1 match is very likely to end up at least 2-1. Note that the Wolves have scored at least 1 goal in 7 straight matches! Also, Crystal Palace has scored 2 goals in each of the last 3 meetings between these clubs. This is why I feel we have excellent value here and I will not pass up on it. 10* OVER 2 in Wolverhampton |
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04-24-23 | Grizzlies +170 v. Lakers | Top | 111-117 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
NBA Monday 10* Top Play Memphis Grizzlies Money Line +165 @ Los Angeles Lakers @ 10 ET - Give credit to the Lakers for answering the call in Game 3 after the Game 2 loss at Memphis. Now it is the Grizzlies turn in Game 4. Note that Memphis was down huge early in Game 3 but then played much better the rest of the way. The Grizzlies will carry some momentum from that right into tonight's game and they will certainly not have such a huge early hole to dig out of. Los Angeles is breathing a sigh of relief after the win Saturday and I would not be surprised to see them having losing some of that mental edge here that they had so strongly in Game 3. For sure LeBron had extra motivation after Brooks comments after Game 2. Now that Brooks has been eating crow so to to speak and the Lakers could let up after the easy win Saturday, Monday is going to see the Grizzlies bring a huge effort and that should be enough for the big win. Note that Memphis wrapped up the regular season having gone 5-0 SU when off a SU loss. They also answered the bell in the post-season with a Game 2 win after a Game 1 loss. I look for the Grizzlies to continue this pattern and again respond off a loss. No points needed! I will grab another money line dog here. 10* MEMPHIS +165 |
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04-24-23 | Golden Knights v. Jets -104 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -104 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
NHL Monday 10* Top Play Winnipeg Jets Money Line -105 vs Vegas Golden Knights @ 9:38 ET - I will keep riding the Jets here. Yes they ended up losing Game 3 in DOUBLE OT but that has helped retain line value here. As I mentioned in my write-up for Game 3, we get some line value because Vegas pulled away late in their Game 2 win. Keep in mind, Winnipeg won game 1 and then looked like they were on their way to another win in Game 2 before things changed in a hurry. The Jets will no doubt regroup on home ice and goalie Connor Hellebuyck is so strong. Look for a big bounce back effort from the Jets in this one after losing Game 3 in very tough fashion in double OT. Goalie edge and home ice edge and plus situational edge with Winnipeg now off B2B losses. The Jets, the last 4 times when they have entered a game coming off 2 or more consecutive losses have won all 4 times. I look for that streak to reach a perfect 5-0 L5 here. WINNIPEG -105 |
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04-24-23 | Cardinals v. Giants OVER 8 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 8 in San Francisco Giants vs St Louis Cardinals @ 9:45 ET - This total has dropped from an 8.5 to an 8 and I am going to jump right in on the added value here. Yes, Cobb has a low ERA this season but he has been hit at a .313 clip so he has been fortunate for sure. Yes, the Cardinals have a solid bullpen but the Giants bullpen has struggled and also St Louis could see their pen called upon early as Montgomery has been struggling getting hit hard in last two starts. That said, I am looking for a rather easy over as this one flies over the low total. Wind blowing out at a good clip early in this one too. We should see solid scoring after yesterday's game involving the Giants got to 5-4 by the middle innings but then the total died at that point and so it was a tough push for over players. This one should keep on going with the Cards now in town instead of the Mets. The Cardinals 7 of last 8 games have totaled at least 9 runs and those 8 games have averaged 11 runs per game. The Giants 3 of last 4 games have totaled at least 9 runs and those have averaged 10 runs apiece. More of the same here. 10* OVER 8 in San Francisco |
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04-24-23 | Maple Leafs v. Lightning OVER 6.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 101 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
NHL Monday 10* Top Play OVER 6.5 in Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs @ 7:38 ET - The Maple Leafs confidence is sky high after B2B wins. The goals keep flowing in this series. Tampa Bay realizes they need to be aggressive and really put down the hammer throughout like they did in the 7-3 win that opened this series up. After seeing Toronto score late in Game 3 to force OT where the Leafs went on to win, the Lightning know they must be relentless here. They need be aggressive on the attack and score plenty because the Leafs are showing they have plenty of mettle. That said, this one looks like another high-scoring game that should get to 7 or more goals. 5 of the 6 meetings between these clubs, including regular season, have totaled at least 7 goals. This one will too. The Lightning can not afford to head to Toronto down 3-1 in this series but, at the same time, the Maple Leafs are so tough to hold in check so another high-scoring game looms here. 10* OVER 6.5 in Tampa Bay |
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04-24-23 | Middlesbrough v. Luton Town OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 102 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
Rotation #200373: English League Championship Monday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 in Luton Town vs Middlesbrough @ 3 ET - Middlesbrough has been scoring a lot of goals of late but this is also a club that allows about twice as many goals on the road as they have at home this season. They are traveling here and facing the club that is just above them in the standings and this Luton Town club actually has allowed more goals at home than on the road this season. So this one sets up well for goals and we should see plenty here as the recent trending of Middlesbrough has been for very high-scoring matches. Luton Town is not as high-scoring as their opponents for this one but they are averaging scoring 1.8 goals per match their last 5 matches. Middlesbrough has seen 12 of last 14 matches total at least 3 goals! Those matches averaged 4 goals apiece and we only need 3 goals to be a winner here. 10* OVER 2.5 in Luton Town |
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04-24-23 | Petrolul 52 v. Voluntari OVER 2 | Top | 2-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
Rotation #206925: Romania Liga 1 Monday 10* Top Play OVER 2 in FC Voluntari vs Petrolul Ploiesti @ 1:30 ET - The value of an over 2 is big in Romania and I definitely look for 3 or more here but like the fact that 2 would be a push rather than a loss. 14 of last 17 FC Voluntari matches have totaled at least 2 goals. Those 14 matches have averaged 3 goals! Petrolul Ploiesti has seen 20 of last 27 matches total at least 2 goals. Those 20 matches have averaged 3 goals apiece. Petrolul Ploiesti had scored at least 1 goal in 6 of last 7 matches before being shutout at home in most recent match. They should respond here as they have scored at least 1 goal in 3 straight road matches. Of course you know that FC Voluntari is favored for a reason here. So you can see, given the above, there is reasoning behind why I am expecting a 2-1 final at the very least in this one. Neither club has had many losses of late so they are playing with plenty of confidence too as the defeat for Petrolul Ploiesti last week was a rare one. They had won 4 straight before that loss. Also, the hosts in this one are unbeaten last 8 matches! 10* OVER 2 in FC Voluntari |
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04-23-23 | Nuggets v. Wolves +145 | Top | 108-114 | Win | 145 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
NBA Sunday 10* Top Play Minnesota Timberwolves +145 vs Denver Nuggets @ 9:30 ET - The Wolves had one 6-game losing streak this season. That was the only time they had a losing streak more than 3 games. In fact, they were 7-0 the other 7 times they entered a game on a 3-game losing streak. So, for the season, the Timberwolves are 7-1 when entering a game on exactly a 3-game losing streak. That is exactly the situation here and they are at home and they are playing for professional pride and to not get swept out of the post-season. I look for this to all add up to an upset win for the home dog here! The Nuggets have won 4 straight games dating back to winning their regular season finale as well. Note that Denver only won a 5th straight game twice in seven chances when in this situation. Indeed Nuggets just 2-5 when entering a game on a winning streak of exactly 4 games. So the odds favor an upset here when you look at the history of both teams this season and I like the fact that Minnesota did a great job of getting to the free throw line in Game 3 but lost the game due to Denver having insanely good shooting from the field. That was completely the difference in that one. The Wolves, behind professional pride, find a way to get this win tonight and force Denver to be content with likely taking this series at home in Game Five as I just can not see, from what I have seen the last two games, this Wolves team being swept. There is not that big of a disparity between these teams as anyone who has watched Games 2 and 3 knows. 10* MINNESOTA +145 |
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04-23-23 | Oilers -154 v. Kings | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
NHL Sunday 10* Top Play Edmonton Oilers Money Line -155 @ Los Angeles Kings @ 9 ET - The Kings are up 2-1 in this series and on home ice and yet they are a sizable underdog here. Must be a mistake, right? Actually no it is not a mistake and the Oilers are the play here. This might be contrarian but it is what has served me well through the years and Edmonton deserves every bit of this price. Anyone who has watched this series knows the Oilers have been the better team. Yet somehow the Kings have a pair of OT wins and are leading this series 2-1. Edmonton is going to be ultra aggressive here and will not be denied and I look for them to dominate in this one. The Oilers will come out like they were shot out of a cannon and they will be relentless here. I like grabbing the stronger team off yet another undeserved loss and fully expect them to step up big in this game and tie up the series before it heads back to Canada. 10* EDMONTON -155 |
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04-23-23 | Mets v. Giants OVER 9 | Top | 4-5 | Push | 0 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
Sunday MLB 10* OVER 9 in San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets @ 7 ET - Wind blowing out again for this one and even though it is the Sunday "night" game on ESPN it starts at 4 PM local time in San Francisco. That means windy weather and cool, but not cold, conditions for this one. That said, note that Megill was 1-4 on the road in his rookie season of 2021, then had a 5.84 ERA on the road last year in 2022. This season he already has been hit harder in his two road starts compared to his home starts. Also, he is facing a hot Giants lineup. But the Mets have been really pounding the ball too as I noted in yesterday's write-up on this same play. Going over again here as the Giants have one of the worst bullpens in baseball and they could be called upon earlier here because Stripling is getting the call in this one as a starter. He has worked out of the pen this season too and is coming off a horrible spring training and a lot of those struggles have carried into his regular season form as well. More of the same here and, no matter who the starting pitchers are (take action), I like the over in this one. 10* OVER 9 in San Francisco |
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04-23-23 | Stars v. Wild OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
NHL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 5.5 in Minnesota Wild vs Dallas Stars @ 6:30 ET - Wild off a 5-1 win and have scored 3.7 goals per game in this series. Stars scored 7 goals the last time they were off a loss in this series. Dallas is now 5-0 last 5 times they were off a loss and they scored 5 goals per game in those 5 losses. That said, I like the odds on the Stars scoring well in this one. The thing is I also like Minnesota to again do their share of scoring on home ice in this game too. That is why my play here is the over rather than Dallas. The Stars had scored at least 4 goals in 7 of last 11 games prior to the 5-1 loss Friday. Look for a big bounce back game from Dallas here but the result will be a high-scoring game as the Wild answer them goal for goal. 10* OVER 5.5 in Minnesota |
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04-23-23 | Steaua Bucharesti v. Rapid Bucuresti OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
Rotation #206921: Romania Liga 1 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 in Rapid vs FCSB @ 1:30 ET - Rapid and FCSB last 3 matches have averaged 3.3 goals and two of those were 3-1 finals. Rapid enters this one having allowed 2 goals per match last 5 matches. However, Rapid has scored an average of 1.8 goals in their 16 home matches this season. You can see why this match getting to 2-2 would not be shocking in the least given numbers like this. The key here is FCSB has seen 7 of last 12 matches total at least 3 goals. 9 of last 10 FCSB matches have seen them both score and concede at least 1 time. These clubs each had only about a 20% draw rate in the regular season but have each had 2 draws in 4 matches in the play-off round. In other words, extra effort a win here to earn full points and long-term trending shows the odds favor that as well. Look for a 2-1 final at least here and 4 or more would not surprise me at all here. 10* OVER 2.5 in Rapid |
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04-23-23 | Manchester United v. Brighton & Hove Albion OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -145 | 6 h 6 m | Show |
Rotation #200405: English FA Cup Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 -145 in Brighton & Hove vs Manchester United @ 11:30 AM ET from Wembley Stadium in London - Fernandes and Rashford both should play for Man U here but each club has some injury issues defensively. 4 of last 5 meetings have totaled at least 3 goals. Man U had scored 2 goals in 3 straight before getting shutout 3-0 by Sevilla which was the 2nd time in 3 matches in which they had allowed at least 2 goals. Also, they have won all 4 of their English FA Cup matches by identical 3-1 scores. We should again see 4 goals here for a 5th straight match but we only need 3 to be a winner here. That is noteworthy too as Brighton has seen 6 of last 8 matches total at least 3 goals. In fact, those have averaged 3.5 goals apiece. 10* OVER 2.5 in Brighton |
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04-23-23 | Tottenham Hotspur v. Newcastle United OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 2 h 38 m | Show |
Rotation #200065 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 in Newcastle United vs Tottenham Hotspur @ 9 AM ET - Both clubs scoring quite well of late while Tottenham has had issues all season with allowing too many goals on the road. Newcastle normally solid on their home pitch in terms of goals allowed but that has not been the case recently. They are having trouble lately with a leaky backline. I am sure Tottenham is going to take advantage of this weakness and will generate plenty of chances with an aggressive attack. However, Newcastle is sure to get their high quality scoring chances at home too. That means at least a 2-1 final here is likely the way I see it. The last 4 meetings between these clubs have all totaled at least 3 goals and actually have averaged 4.5 goals apiece. Tottenham enters this match with 4 of last 5 totaling at least 3 goals and these matches have averaged 4 goals. Newcastle has seen 5 of last 6 matches total at least 3 goals and those have averaged 3.3 goals apiece. 10* OVER 2.5 in Newcastle |
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04-22-23 | Maple Leafs v. Lightning OVER 6 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
NHL Saturday OVER 6 or 6.5 in Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs @ 7 ET - The first two games in this series have each totaled at least 9 goals. This one may not see quite as many of course but why would this overall trend change? The point is maybe we see 7 or 8 but overall goals keep flowing. 4 of last 6 Toronto games, dating back to regular season, have totaled at least 7 goals. The Lightning have seen, dating to back to regular season also, 6 of last 7 games total at least 7 goals. Also, Tampa Bay is on home ice now where they have scored an average of 4 goals last 6 games. Bolts off that 7-2 loss in Game 2 of this series so I am sure we are going to see a response from there on home ice but this Leafs team has been scoring very well and loaded with talent up front and will keep the pressure on here as they look to build off the momentum of the big Game 2 victory. OVER 6 or 6.5 in Tampa Bay |
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04-22-23 | Mets v. Giants OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
MLB Saturday OVER 8.5 in San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets @ 4:05 ET - I know these pitches are recording a lot of strikeouts but they also have been giving up plenty of hard contact too. That is why Peterson has a high ERA and Webb actually has allowed quite a few long balls. No matter the starting pitchers here I also like the fact this is a day game in San Francisco and the wind will be blowing out. It will still be cool and this is not a hitters park but an 8.5 in this situation and with these conditions and expected starting pitchers is quite solid. The Giants should bounce back after being shutout yesterday. The Mets actually scored 7 in the shutout win yesterday and remain red hot. They have won 11 of 14 games and actually averaged 7 runs per game in the 11 wins! The Giants had scored a respectable average of 4.4 runs per game last 8 games before being shutout yesterday. So SF bounces back but Mets stay hot! I expect each club to get to the 4-run mark so we have excellent value with this total at 8.5 runs. OVER 8.5 in San Francisco |
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04-22-23 | Golden Knights v. Jets -110 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 17 m | Show |
NHL Saturday Winnipeg Jets Money Line -110 vs Vegas Golden Knights @ 4 ET - I will keep riding the Jets here. We get some line value because Vegas pulled away late in their Game 2 win. Keep in mind, Winnipeg won game 1 and then looked like they were on their way to another win in Game 2 before things changed in a hurry. The Jets will no doubt regroup on home ice and goalie Connor Hellebuyck is so strong. Look for a big bounce back effort from the Jets in this one. Goalie edge and home ice edge and plus situational edge as the Jets are coming off a loss. WINNIPEG -110 |
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04-22-23 | CFR Cluj v. Farul Constanta 1920 OVER 2.25 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -102 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
Rotation #206901: Romania Liga 1 Saturday OVER 2 -130 in Farul vs CFR Cluj @ 1:30 ET - Laying a little extra juice to have the over 2 goals is well worth it. I am expecting this one to get to at least 3 goals but, this way, if it lands on 2 we get a push rather than a loss. In the regular season, these were the two highest-scoring clubs in the league! Not only that, their two meetings this season each totaled at least 3 goals. Also, their current trending absolutely supports a play on the over here as well. Farul tends to be so strong at home but, though they do score well, they also have been conceding goals of late as well. In fact, Farul has both scored and conceded in 5 straight matches! Those matches have averaged 3 goals apiece. As for CFR Cluj, their story is similar as 8 of their last 9 matches have seen both they and their opponent find the back of the net! Those 9 matches have averaged 3.7 goals apiece. I am expecting 4 goals in this one but 3 also serves our purposes just fine and I do love the value of a push if this one shocks me and ends with only 2 goals. This should be a high-scoring wide-open affair. OVER 2 -130 in Farul |
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04-22-23 | 76ers -125 v. Nets | Top | 96-88 | Win | 100 | 4 h 57 m | Show |
NBA Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers Money Line -120 or Point Spread -1.5 @ Brooklyn Nets @ 1 ET - I waited on this one hoping we might even see the line tick down to a pick'em but it looks like it is holding at no lower than 1.5 as of about 4 hours before tip-off so we will go ahead and pull the trigger on this one now. It is all about the value here. Philly has won the first 3 games of this series but now because Embiid is out they are a very small favorite in Game 4. I feel it will prove to be too small. Philly gets the cover here as the Sixers have had many big games this season even when Embiid was out. Also, Harden was absolutely 100% wrongly ejected in Game 3 for a flagrant foul that perhaps was not even a regular foul! You know that Harden is going to play this game with a burr under his saddle as a result. Philly will come out strong here and look to end this series Saturday afternoon to maximize their rest before the 2nd round begins. They want to finish this now and they still have the talent edge in this match-up even with Embiid out. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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04-22-23 | Sheffield United v. Manchester City OVER 3.5 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
Rotation #200401: English FA Cup Saturday OVER 3.5 +105 in Manchester City vs Sheffield United @ 11:45 AM ET - Of course the huge underdogs, Sheffield United, would love to turn this match into a low-scoring grinder. However, Manchester City simply is too talented and strong and will not let that happen. Of course once City starts going goals it will put pressure on Sheffield to open things and take risks. I would not be surprised to see them find the back of the net in this one but City is a 2-goal favorite on the goal line for a reason. I am looking for a 3 to 1 type of final here. Either way we get to 4 goals even if City goes ballistic and gets to that number all by themselves. Yes they have a big match on deck with Arsenal but this one is also very important and they will likely use this as a tune-up to be a well-oiled machine heading into Wednesday's big EPL match. Remember that City is averaging 2.6 goals scored per match in league action this season. Also, City has averaged scoring 4 goals per match last 7 matches across all competitions. As for Sheffield, they average about 1.6 goals per match in Championship League action and, again, they will be forced to be aggressive on the attack here and take some risks as this match goes along. OVER 3.5 +105 in Manchester City |
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04-22-23 | U Craiova 1948 v. Botosani OVER 2.25 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
Rotation #206913: Romania Liga 1 Saturday OVER 2 -135 in FC Botosani vs U Craiova 1948 @ 10:30 AM ET - Laying a little extra juice to have the over 2 goals is well worth it. I am expecting this one to get to at least 3 goals but, this way, if it lands on 2 we get a push rather than a loss. FC Botosani has scored at least 1 goal in 5 straight matches overall. Also, as a host, FC Botosani has scored at least 1 goal in 9 straight matches and averaged 1.6 goals in the process. As for U Craiova 1948, they have had 4 of last 5 matches total at least 3 goals. Those 4 matches, in fact, have averaged 4 goals apiece! As for FC Botosani matched up with U Craiova 1948, their two matches this season were each 1-0 finals. However, this followed 3 straight that totaled at least 2 goals and the last two averaged 4 goals apiece. The way these clubs are trending right now (including FC Botosani solid scoring at home), that is the type of result I expect here. OVER 2 -135 in FC Botosani |
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04-22-23 | Everton v. Crystal Palace OVER 2 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -130 | 5 h 37 m | Show |
Rotation #200049: English Premier League Saturday OVER 2 -130 in Crystal Palace vs Everton @ 10 AM ET - Don't be surprised if Dominic Calvert-Lewin ends up playing some for Everton in this match and that would certainly give the visitors a boost. However, even if he does not play, I expect Everton to find the back of the net here as last week's clean sheet that Crystal Palace delivered was a rare one for them of late. But what has not been rare of late for them is plenty of goals. They have absolutely enjoyed a resurgence under manager Roy Hodgson. They have scored in each of last 4 matches and have averaged 2.5 goals scored per match. Getting this total at 2 goals is a great bargain here even at a price in the -130 range. Crystal Palace, prior to last week's 2-0 win, had allowed a goal in 6 straight matches. They are playing a more aggressive style under Hodgson now and should score well in this one but could struggle to an Everton club desperate for a victory. They are winless in their last 4 matches and those averaged a total of 3 goals apiece and manager Sean Dyche is desperate to get his club back on track. As a result, we'll see more attacking in this match than you might would normally expect. Everton has scored 7 goals in last 6 matches but also conceded an average of 2 goals per match last 8 matches. OVER 2 -130 in Crystal Palace |
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04-21-23 | Oilers -150 v. Kings | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -150 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
NHL Friday Edmonton Oilers Money Line -150 @ Los Angeles Kings @ 10 ET - This series is tied 1-1 but the Kings have never held a lead in the series. They won Game 1 in OT after trailing by 2 goals. They then trailed Game 2 again by 2 goals and rallied to tie it up but the Oilers then won that one in regulation. I respect the Kings but the Oilers are the better team and they have shown that in this series as well. They need a win to take back home ice in the series and I like our chances here. Edmonton has outshot Los Angeles in this series and had a multi-goal lead in each game and could easily be up 2-0 in this series. If they were up 2-0 here I probably would be staying away from this game. But the fact it is 1-1 even though they have outplayed them is what has me backing the Oilers in a big way here. They are favored in the -150 range on the road here for good reason. They need a win to avoid a series deficit here and, as the better team, I full expect them to get that! They continue their strong play and remember they were a great road team this season. That serves them well here too! EDMONTON -150 |
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04-21-23 | Nuggets v. Wolves +118 | Top | 120-111 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
NBA Friday Minnesota Timberwolves Money +120 vs Denver Nuggets @ 9:30 ET - Bad beats are part of the business and we caught yet another one in the NBA Wednesday when the Timberwolves +8.5 lost by 9 points after definitely not looking like it was going to go that way late. I look for Minnesota to build off the huge 3rd quarter they had at Denver in Game Two. They ended up then falling short in the 4th quarter of that game but the late surge there on the road plus now coming home will give the T-wolves the edge they need to get over the top here. They generally, through the years in their better seasons, are a very strong home team and they also have won their last two home games by a combined 30 points. The Nuggets, generally struggle on the road through the years, and had a losing road record this season and I look for a Wolves team, determined to get back into this series, to be the stronger and more aggressive team here. The motivation factor is huge for Minny here and they know they can play with these guys after giving a much better effort in Game 2 after getting blown out in Game 1. They will do just that and we do not need any points here. MINNESOTA +120 |
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04-21-23 | Rockies v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -135 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
MLB Friday Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 -135 vs Colorado Rockies @ 7:05 ET - I know Davis had a surprisingly good first start for the Rockies but I expect a reality check for him here! The fact is he struggled in spring training with too many walks so he started this season in AAA and he also had trouble with too many walks. However, he got called up to the bigs due to injury issues. Now Davis faces a fired up Phillies lineup on the road after they surprisingly got shutout by his teammates yesterday. The Rockies are known for struggling on the road and I feel sure lightning will not strike twice here. In other words, after getting shutout by a 5-0 final yesterday, look for the Phillies to respond strong here. They also will have Aaron Nola on the mound. He is known for dominating at home and his stuff should be sharp here. He has a solid k/bb ratio this season and Nola has settled in decently since his first start of the season was an ugly one. I expect his breaking stuff to give the road-adverse Rockies a lot of trouble here and the Phillies pull away as this game goes on. PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -135 |
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04-21-23 | Hurricanes v. Islanders OVER 5 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
NHL Friday OVER 5 -130 in New York Islanders vs Carolina Hurricanes @ 7 ET - We saw a 4-3 battle decided in OT in Game 2 and I feel we have excellent line value with this low total of 5 goals in Game 3. Note that we just need each team to get to 2 goals and we are guaranteed of no less than a 3-2 final here. That said, I am looking for 6 or more goals here but a push at 5 is certainly a nice option rather than losing if the posted total was 5.5 everywhere on this one. The fact it the Islanders are down 2 games to 0 in this series but will put up a strong fight at home. At the same time the Hurricanes are not going to back down and have been scoring plenty of goals of late. The way I see it, and given the situation here, I would not be surprised to see another 3-3 battle decided after regulation here. OVER 5 -130 in New York Islanders |
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04-21-23 | Southampton v. Arsenal OVER 3 | Top | 3-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 21 m | Show |
Rotation #200033: English Premier League Friday OVER 3 in Arsenal vs Southampton @ 3 ET - Amazingly, in English Premier League matches, Arsenal has had 9 of last 10 including 7 straight total at least 3 goals! Those 10 matches have averaged 4 goals apiece and I am expecting to get to at least the 4 goal mark in this one. Look for Arsenal to be relentless on the attack here as their last two matches have been 2-2 draws as a result of letting 2-0 leads slip away in each match. They will push hard to get to at least the 3 goal mark here I am sure! As for Southampton, they have allowed an average of 2.4 goals per match last 5 matches and now face one of the top clubs in the league. However, Arsenal does have a huge match Wednesday against Manchester City. That said, if they get caught looking ahead Southampton could certainly make this one interesting! They have not been scoring much but certainly should do some damage here against a leaky Arsenal defense. The storyline though will be a huge rout for the hosts though ultimately as they are massive favorites here - including -2 goals on the goal line - with good reason! OVER 3 in Arsenal |
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04-21-23 | CS U Craiova v. Sepsi OVER 2.25 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 56 m | Show |
Rotation #206897 Friday OVER 2.5 +115 in Sepsi vs Universitatea Craiova @ 1:30 ET - Universitatea Craiova won 1-0 here when these clubs last met way back in October. However, the two prior meetings each totaled 4 goals. Also, each of the 3 prior meetings saw each club score at least one goal in each match. Likewise, Universitatea Craiova has played 5 straight matches overall in which they have both scored and conceded at least once in every single match. Their last two matches have each totaled at least 4 goals and I am looking for more of the same here. As for Sepsi, their last 18 matches have averaged 3 goals apiece. I love the value here of the over 2.5 goals at plus money. Sepsi has scored an average of 2 goals per match in last 9 at home. Also, last week's 2-1 loss was the 5th time last 8 matches in which Sepsi has conceded at least 2 goals. We'll see plenty of scoring here as Universitatea Craiova will enjoy plenty of success as well. OVER 2.5 +115 in Sepsi |
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04-20-23 | Jets +150 v. Golden Knights | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
NHL Thursday Winnipeg Jets Money Line +150 @ Vegas Golden Knights @ 10 ET - As mentioned in my Tuesday write-up on Winnipeg (5-1 winner), the fact that Vegas has home ice and won all 3 meetings with Jets this season is skewing a couple of key factors in my opinion in terms of this line. We have Connor Hellebuyck on our side in this game for Winnipeg. Also, the Jets have a team built for post-season hockey in my opinion. Vegas goalie Laurent Brossoit actually missed some time earlier this season. Then he lost 14 of 22 starts at the AHL level. But then Adin Hill and Logan Thompson both got here and now here he is. Yes, I know he went 7-0-3 to close out the regular season but Tuesday was his first-ever playoff start plus he is facing his former team. Talk about pressure! The fact is that it will likely again prove to be too much and I like the odds on another upset win here just like the road upset win we saw here to open up this series. As coach Rick Bowness of the Jets stated before the series started, Winnipeg is not just here to give the Golden Knights a tune up for advancing to the next round. I like this Jets team and their attitude under Bowness and feel they are going to give Vegas a tough time in this series. It started Tuesday and continues tonight at a great underdog price. The Jets were dominant in the 1st game, just look at the stats too, and also note that key players for Vegas like Eichel and Stone ended up -3 with their +/- stats in game one. Just because the Golden Knights lost game one does not mean they bounce back in Game Two. Hellebuyck is great to have on your side over Brossoit and I do not mean any disrespect to Brossoit but Hellebuyck is just so good! WINNIPEG +150 |
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04-20-23 | Kings +200 v. Warriors | Top | 97-114 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
NBA Thursday Sacramento Kings Money Line +200 @ Golden State Warriors @ 10 ET - The Warriors simply must win at home in Game 3 because they are down 2-0 in this series and are so strong at home...this is the prevailing wisdom on this game. I disagree completely and feel we will not even need points here to get the cash. First off, one of the Warriors home edges usually is getting teams flying in from elsewhere and possibly playing in a back to back, etc. Of course that is not the case here as Sacramento is not far at all from Oakland. Secondly, the Warriors are going to be without Draymond Green who is suspended for this one after the Sabonis stomp to the chest. That said, I like to look at +/- more than just traditional stats when it comes to NBA and the Warriors have played the Kings about equal when Green is on the floor in this series. Without him they are going to have rely more on others and yes they have Steph Curry but another key guy is Klay Thompson and he has a (-) in double digits for each of the first two games. In other words, they have not been good with him out there. So Green's absence may matter more than you would think plus Payton, Poole, and Wiggins are all questionable for this game. Even if they play they will not be 100%. So this is a battered and bruised Warriors team both in the form of injury as well as ego. Their swagger is gone. Sacramento has taken it and they are not going to let it go either. I love the fact the spread was down to a 5 but is now going back up the 6.5 range. People just don't think the Warriors can possibly lose here but this is not the GS teams of old folks. That is also why they are in their first 2-0 series deficit under Kerr. Not only that, the Warriors are without Green and have other banged up guys. The healthy road dog goes in for the kill here. SACRAMENTO Money Line +200 |
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04-20-23 | Padres v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
MLB Thursday OVER 9.5 in Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres @ 9:40 ET - Why is this total so big? Exactly! Don't let the big number fool you as this total is even up to a 10 in some spots! The fact is that the over is the paly here. Ryne Nelson is off a strong start versus Miami but it was the first time he faced them. This young starter has faced only 3 teams in his career. The other two were the Dodgers and Padres. The first time he faced each of them he pitched well also. But then he faced the Dodgers a 2nd time and struggled. Then he faced the Padres and 2nd and 3rd time and struggled in each outing. Now he faces them a 4th time! You know what to expect here! San Diego is likely to be all over him. Now the Diamondbacks, however, get to tee off against Michael Wacha. The veteran hurler has struggled in 2 of his 3 starts this season and now faces a Diamondbacks team that has scored at least 5 runs in 4 straight games and averaged 6 runs per game during this stretch. Also, those games were on the road! Note that, at home, the Diamondbacks have scored an average of 7 runs last 6 games. The Padres bullpen has been only mediocre while the Arizona bullpen has struggled. San Diego has not been hitting well but has a history of success against the Diamondbacks including at this venue and including against this pitcher. Slugfest coming to Chase Field tonight. OVER 9.5 in Arizona |
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04-20-23 | Lightning v. Maple Leafs OVER 6 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
NHL Thursday OVER 6 in Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning @ 7 ET - 10 goals in the first game and Maple Leafs need to respond at home but will again struggle to stop this talented Tampa Bay team. Toronto has plenty of firepower in the offensive zone but continues to struggle in their own end in crunch time. The Bolts will again be dangerous here but you know the Leafs are going to bring their A game at home and down 1-0 in this series. I look for this to result in plenty of scoring here as a result. Toronto has scored at least 3 goals in all 4 meetings between these teams in regular season and playoffs but Tampa Bay has averaged 3.5 goals in the 4 meetings as well. This one should again see plenty of fireworks as the power plays are clicking for both teams as well! OVER 6 in Toronto |
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04-20-23 | Manchester United v. Sevilla OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 56 m | Show |
Rotation #224429 Europa League Thursday OVER 2.5 in Sevilla vs Manchester United @ 3 ET - Sevilla always seems to rise to the occasion in events like this. I am looking for plenty of goals here as Manchester United is certainly hungry to advance as well and they are not happy about giving up 2 late goals and blowing a 2-goal lead in their 2-2 draw with Sevilla in the first meeting. That is all part of a 4-match stretch in which Sevilla has scored 2 goals in all 4 matches. The thing is, Manchester United has been playing well also and they have scored 2 goals in each of their last 3 matches. They will also have Rashford back for this one. I am looking for at least a 2-1 final here and note that each of the last 3 meetings between these clubs have totaled at least 3 goals. More of the same in another highly entertaining affair between these clubs. After what happened in the first one, Manchester United knows no lead is safe and they will be relentless here but of course they are on the road for this one too. The hosts will be on the attack on their home pitch as well. OVER 2.5 in Sevilla |
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04-19-23 | Wolves +8.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 113-122 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
NBA Wednesday Minnesota Timberwolves +8.5 - The Wolves did not just lose Game One at Denver, they got completely embarrassed. An unbelievable 109 to 80 loss for Minny in the first game will also bring an equally unbelievable focus from the losers of Game One. Of course the Nuggets are still the better team overall but this is one of those games where it is all about who wants it more. I am not saying that Minnesota will win this outright, though that would not be a total surprise either, but I am saying they should get at least the cover in this one. Remember when they lost at LA against the Lakers in the play-in round everyone thought the T-wolves were finished. They responded by blasting OKC by 25 points. We will see a response from the Wolves here. MINNESOTA +8.5 |
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04-19-23 | Wild v. Stars -146 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
NHL Wednesday Dallas Stars -145 - As long-time followers know, I like dogs and small favorites and totals in NHL the most. That said, for me to lay it, the situation has to be just right. I feel that is what we have here. The Stars lost Game 1 in double-OT. They are on home ice and need to respond as they can't afford to go down 2-0 in this series with both losses in their own barn. I feel Dallas is going to come out extremely fired up and strong in this game. The Dumba hit on Pavelski changed the complexion of Game 1 and perhaps this series. The Stars were up 2-1 at the time before Pavelski got laid out. The Wild then tied the game later in the 2nd period after that. Then they won it in double-OT after some very tight chances by the Stars - including one off the post - came up just short of ending the game. Could be another tight game here but I just do not see Dallas being denied here. Their energy and emotion should be off the charts in this one and they held some edges in Game 1 in terms of in the faceoff circle and shots on goal, etc. Stars get it done here. DALLAS -145 |
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04-19-23 | Panthers v. Bruins OVER 6 | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
NHL Wednesday OVER 6 in Boston - Game 1 was 3-1 heading to final period but then no scoring. Panthers know the likelihood of them winning low-scoring grinders is not good against this top notch Bruins team. That said, look for Florida to be extra aggressive on the attack in this one even if it means exposing their defense and netminding a bit at the other end. I like the value here as I expect the 2nd period scoring momentum to carry into the 2nd game of this series after game one died with a scoreless 3rd period. Aggressive Panthers team will go for broke on the road Wednesday and that means plenty of goals. OVER 6 in Boston |
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04-19-23 | Angels v. Yankees OVER 9 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 26 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday OVER 9 in New York Yankees - The Angels were up 5-2 in the top of the 5th in yesterday's game. Inexplicably, the game died at that point. Yes, the Yankees pen has been good this season but the Twins pen had not been overly impressive. Then yesterday, they suddenly got the job one. Look for the Yankees bats to bounce back here but I also don't see the Angels slowing down. In terms of the expected starting pitching match-up here, Griffin Canning had a good first start for the Angels but he gave up hard contact in that game too. In other words, he had some good fortune in that outing. Remember he has been away from MLB for quite some time after suffering a stress fracture in his lower back. It will still take him awhile to get back to the form he use to have. As for Jhony Brito, he got rocked in his most recent start and could not even make it out of the first inning. Keep in mind, he is a rookie and his strikeout numbers were way down in the 2nd start compared to the first start. Then in his 3rd - and most recent - start, he did not make it out of the 1st inning. OVER 9 in New York Yankees |
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04-19-23 | Manchester City v. Bayern Munich OVER 3 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -111 | 4 h 33 m | Show |
Champions League OVER 3 in Bayern Munich - Manchester City won the first meeting 3-0 so Bayern Munich must be aggressive on their home pitch and they are known for scoring goals here. However, Manchester City is on an incredible goal-scoring run of their own. That means the hosts being forced to be aggressive will absolutely open things up for the visitors to continue their onslaught of goal-scoring across all competitions. OVER 3 in Bayern Munich |
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04-18-23 | Jets +135 v. Golden Knights | Top | 5-1 | Win | 135 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
NHL Tuesday Winnipeg Jets Money Line +130 @ Vegas Golden Knights @ 9:30 ET - The fact that Vegas has home ice and won all 3 meetings with Jets this season is skewing a couple of key factors in my opinion in terms of this line. We have Connor Hellebuyck on our side in this game for Winnipeg. Also, the Jets have a team built for post-season hockey in my opinion. Vegas goalie Laurent Brossoit actually missed some time earlier this season. Then he lost 14 of 22 starts at the AHL level. But then Adin Hill and Logan Thompson both got here and now here he is. Yes, I know he went 7-0-3 to close out the regular season but now he makes his first-ever playoff start plus he is facing his former team. Talk about pressure! The fact is that it will likely prove to be too much and I like the odds on a road upset win here to open up this series. As coach Rick Bowness of the Jets stated, Winnipeg is not just here to give the Golden Knights a tune up for advancing to the next round. I like this Jets team and their attitude under Bowness and feel they are going to give Vegas a tough time in this series. It starts tonight at a great underdog price. WINNIPEG +130 |
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04-18-23 | Pirates v. Rockies OVER 12.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday OVER 12.5 in Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 8:40 ET - Mild weather, winds blowing out toward right-center and with a pair of struggling right-handed pitchers slated to start this one. It is a great spot all the way around for another slugfest. Yesterday's final looked like a football score as Pittsburgh defeated Colorado two touchdowns to a field goal: 14 to 3. I would not be surprised to see each team get to a TD in this one! Of course a 7-7 game would mean at least an 8-7 final and honestly I am expecting the mid-teens on this one again just like yesterday's game. The Pirates start Velasquez and the journeyman right-hander will again find Coors Field to be a disaster for him. The Pittsburgh righty is 35-49 with a 4.94 ERA in his career and has been trending the wrong direction in recent seasons. Every once in awhile he'll have a good start come out of nowhere like he did at St Louis last week but those tend to be one-offs and I am expecting his stuff to lack movement here in the thin air of Denver. That will prove to be a disaster. Speaking of disasters, the Rockies Jose Urena is winless with a 9.90 ERA so far this season. Last year at Coors Field he was 2-5 with a 6.30 ERA and this year he has allowed 5 homers in 10 innings in his 3 starts overall. Again, the wind is blowing out tonight. The Rockies and Pirates bullpens have not impressed this season either. Slugfest at Coors Field. OVER 12.5 in Colorado |
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04-18-23 | Hawks v. Celtics OVER 229.5 | Top | 106-119 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
NBA Tuesday OVER 229.5 in Boston Celtics vs Atlanta Hawks @ 7 ET - The Celtics had 74 points at halftime of Game One but could take their foot off the gas because the Hawks shot so poorly. I do not expect a repeat of that as the Hawks did manage 80 points over the final 3 quarters of action and this is despite a horrific overall shooting performance. The pace was there for an over Saturday as the Celtics had nearly 90 shots from the field and Atlanta had nearly 100 shots from the field. The problem for the Hawks is they shot 38.8% from the field including just 5 of 29 from three point land. Look for a big bounce back from Atlanta here in terms of their shooting. However, they have shown in all their match-ups with Boston this season, they just can not stop the Celtics from lighting them up on the scoreboard. Again, the Celts were able to take their foot off their gas in game one but I expect the Hawks to keep this one close enough that the hosts will have to score well throughout. The end result should be a game getting well into the 230s Tuesday. OVER 229.5 in Boston |
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04-18-23 | Rangers +118 v. Devils | Top | 5-1 | Win | 118 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
NHL Tuesday New York Rangers +115 @ New Jersey Devils @ 7 ET - I like the overall experience edge of this Rangers team. They have the veteran edge in terms of their star players and a ton of post-season experience. They have the size edge too to out-physical the Devils and set the tone in game 1 of this series. Then you also have the key goalie edge. I know Vanecek has played well but Shesterkin is one of the best goalies in the world and he finished the season looking like the Igor we are use to seeing. That said, other than home ice edge, the edges here are in favor of New York. This includes the fact that the Rangers are plus money here because they are on the road. That said, I have no hesitation in backing them in this one as I expect them to open up this series with a road win. NEW YORK RANGERS +115 |
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04-18-23 | Real Madrid v. Chelsea OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -114 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
Rotation #224217: Champions League Tuesday OVER 2.5 in Chelsea vs Real Madrid @ 3 ET - Down 2-0 on the aggregate so far in this one, Chelsea has to dig deep and get a miracle 3-goal win to advance. Of course that is a tall order and I am not forecasting that but I am forecasting a very aggressive effort on the part of Chelsea. They can not afford to sit back here. Of course this will open up the scoring options for Real Madrid on the counterattack and this could result in a very entertaining high-scoring affair here with some great breakaway opportunities. Note that Chelsea did finally make the net ripple in their recent 2-1 loss to Brighton. They can at least take something from that as it finally ended their scoreless drought. The issue here is they are hosting a Real Madrid club that has scored an average of 3.2 goals last 5 matches and will be up to the challenge here no matter how spirited the effort of the hosts in this one! OVER 2.5 in Chelsea |
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04-17-23 | Pirates v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 14-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
MLB Monday OVER 11.5 in Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 8:40 ET - I know Freeland has great numbers early this season for the Rockies but the weather is going to be great in Denver for this one plus the Pirates have actually been a surprise early this season. The Pittsburgh bats are sure to enjoy hitting in nice conditions at Coors Field in this one as well. The Pirates are off an extra-innings loss yesterday but had won 8 of 12 games heading into that one! Pittsburgh had scored an average of 6 runs in those 8 victories. Now they should hit Freeland well but I expect their starter, Hill, to get absolutely crushed here. Hill has just 1 strikeout TOTAL in his last 2 starts and if you are pitching to contact at Coors Field it generally does not work out well for you! I know this is a big total here but the Rockies last 6 games have all totaled at least 11 runs and averaged 13 runs. Colorado is off a tough road trip, as usual, so they will be happy to be back home. Rockies scoring an average of 6 runs per game in their last 6 at Coors Field. Neither one of these bullpens has been overly impressive so far this season either. OVER 11.5 in Colorado |
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04-17-23 | Panthers v. Bruins OVER 6 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -117 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
NHL Monday OVER 6 in Boston Bruins vs Florida Panthers @ 7:30 ET - Boston is so strong and I do not trust the Florida goaltending situation. That said, Bruins will score well here but don't be surprised if high-powered Florida does plenty of scoring too. This should be a very high-scoring entertaining affair. Boston is so strong but Florida will test them and we're going to see a lot of goals here for a playoff game. I like the Panthers in the offensive zone but do not trust their defense or netminding. Lyon got exposed in the final game of the regular season and now a rusty Bobrovsky could be back between the pipes for this one so, either way, Bruins likely scoring big in this one. I expect Florida to put up a fight though. OVER 6 in Boston |
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04-17-23 | Nets v. 76ers -10 | Top | 84-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
NBA Monday Philadelphia 76ers -10 vs Brooklyn Nets @ 7:30 ET - The 76ers never trailed in Game 1. They led the game by as many as 25 points and won the game by 20 points. The scary thing for Brooklyn is that the Nets shot 56% from the field and 45% from 3-point land and yet still got destroyed. Part of the problem was turnovers for Brooklyn but Philly had 14 steals in the game so it is not like it was all on the Nets. The fact is that Philadelphia was able to create an uncomfortable environment for Brooklyn in that one and I expect more of the same here. Keep in mind, Philly won every single quarter. The Nets were outscored by at least 3 points in each of the 4 quarters. The Sixers bench also dominated Brooklyn's subs when you compare that aspect of the game as well. Top notch talent, depth, overall team quality...the 76ers have it all in this match-up and they prove that again Monday. I am never too fond of laying big numbers but it is again justified here. PHILADELPHIA -10 |
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04-17-23 | Islanders v. Hurricanes -165 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
NHL Monday Carolina Hurricanes Money Line -165 vs New York Islanders @ 7 ET - The Hurricanes have won each of the last 3 meetings between these teams and the average score has been 3 to 1 so they are not just squeaking by in these games either. That said, this price is at the upper range of what I like to lay on a game but it is playoff time and home ice and game one of a series. That said, I am willing to invest here as I look for Carolina to want to make a statement in game one and I fully expect a great home ice atmosphere for this game. Remember that the Islanders barely made the post-season this year and last year did not even make the playoffs. Conversely, the Hurricanes are Metro Div Champs this year and have unfinished business from last year's post-season. They had a 2-0 lead (and later 3-2 lead) in the Eastern Conference Semi-Finals last season but then lost to the Rangers. That said, the Canes come out very strong here and they had won 7 straight home ice post-season games before that Game 7 loss to the Rangers last year. Also, the Hurricanes enter this one off B2B big wins by a combined score of 10 to 5 to wrap up the regular season and clinch the division. Islanders lost last 3 road games of regular season by a combined score of 12 to 3. Look for those struggles to carry right into this game. CAROLINA -165 |
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04-17-23 | Liverpool v. Leeds United OVER 3 | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
Rotation #200029: English Premier League OVER 3 in Leeds United vs Liverpool @ 3 ET - Liverpool very hungry for a win and should build momentum off last week's comeback against Arsenal as they rallied for the 2-2 draw. However, it is hard to trust the Reds to get the victory here considering how they have struggled on the road all season. Also, they enter this match having failed to notch a victory in 5 straight matches. That said, the play here is the over. Leeds has a leaky defense but they are solid up front and should pressure (and have success) against a Liverpool club known for conceding more goals on the road. Each of the last 3 meetings between these clubs have totaled at least 3 goals and the last 5 meetings between these clubs have averaged 4 goals apiece. Liverpool has seen 2 of last 3 matches total at least 4 goals. Leeds United has had 5 straight matches total at least 3 goals and these 5 have averaged 5 goals apiece! They should notch at least 1 goal here on their home pitch but you know Liverpool is going to be relentless on the attack as they are desperate to notch a victory and get back into the win column finally. OVER 3 in Leeds United |
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04-17-23 | Farul Constanta 1920 v. Steaua Bucharesti OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
Rotation #206877: Romania Liga 1 Monday OVER 2.5 in FCSB vs Farul @ 1:30 ET - This match-up has goals written all over it. These are two of the top clubs in the league now meeting in the play-off stage. Note the last 3 meetings have each totaled at least 4 goals and, also at least one of the clubs has scored at least 2 goals in each of the last 5 meetings. We'll see goals here! Farul enters this one with 3 of last 4 matches each totaling at least 3 goals. In each of those 4 matches both Farul and their opponent has scored at least once in every single match. As for FCSB, 6 of last 11 matches have totaled at least 3 goals. These 11 matches have averaged 3 goals apiece and considering FCSB is now matched up with a very high-scoring Farul club for this one, goals should be aplenty! On the season FCSB has averaged 1.9 goals scored in their 16 home matches! On the season, in all matches, Farul has averaged 1.8 goals scored per match! You can see, given numbers like that, why 4 goals in this one would not be a shock at all and why I am absolutely expecting at least 3 goals in this one. OVER 2.5 in FCSB |
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04-17-23 | Chindia Targoviste +120 v. Arges | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 4 m | Show |
Rotation #206865: Romania Liga 1 Monday Chindia Targoviste Money Line +130 @ FC Arges @ 10:30 AM ET - FC Arges has been nothing short of awful and we get line value here since they are hosting. It means we can get a very fair price in backing the road club. Note that FC Arges has not won a match since October. That is absolutely ridiculous. Now, of course, if this match ends in a draw we lose but note that FC Arges also has not scored a goal in 6 straight matches! As for Chindia Targoviste, they have been playing better since the calendar turned the page to 2023. They have scored at least 1 goal in 3 of last 4 matches and have scored an average of 1 goal in their dozen matches this year. All signs pointing toward a 1-0 Chindia Targoviste victory here. Look for the struggles of FC Arges to continue here. Chindia Targoviste +130 |
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04-16-23 | Clippers v. Suns -7 | Top | 115-110 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
NBA Sunday Phoenix Suns -7.5 vs Los Angeles Clippers @ 8 ET - The Suns will have Kevin Durant for this game. The Clippers will not have Paul George. Phoenix also is at home. I also do expect Cameron Payne to play for Phoenix here as he has been dealing with lower back soreness but the time off should have helped him. If he does not go, Landry Shamet should do just fine with the extra minutes he'll get. The Clippers will really miss George. He is a key contributor for them including averaging 23.8 ppg just like Kawhi Leonard. Suns were 28-13 at home this season and Clippers basically a .500 team on the road. I also like the fact that LA was just 20-27 against teams with a winning record this season. They basically padded their record big time against bad teams. It is playoff time now and the Suns come ready at home here and should win this game by double digits. Suns had 28 wins by double digits this season and Clippers had 21 losses by double digit margins. This looks like another one. Big win for the home team in this one as I know the road team took all 4 regular season meetings between these teams but the entire set-up and injury situation is different here with this playoff game. PHOENIX -7.5 |
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04-16-23 | Heat v. Bucks -9 | Top | 130-117 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
NBA Sunday Milwaukee Bucks -9 vs Miami Heat @ 5:30 ET - The Heat had to play 2 games just to get here. The Bucks are rested and ready and at home. I know this is a big number but I expect Milwaukee to show no mercy here. Keep in mind, the Heat struggled on the road this season and the Bucks are so strong at home. Also, they do not want to give Miami any sense of hope in this one. I look for Milwaukee to jump on them and then keep the hammer down. Note that the Bucks were 32-9 at home this season. Overall, on the season, they won 30 games by at least 10 points and I look for one of those types of big wins here in this one. The Heat are off a win versus the Bulls but outscored Chicago by 17 points at the free throw line. Of course they are not going to have that kind of edge here on the road at Milwaukee like they did at home against the Bulls. The home team won all 4 meetings between these teams this season and Miami's backcourt still banged up and I certainly don't expect Strus to score 31 again like he did against Chicago! Healthy and rested this one is home dominance. MILWAUKEE -9 |
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04-16-23 | Braves v. Royals OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
MLB Sunday OVER 8.5 in Kansas City Royals vs Atlanta Braves @ 2:10 ET - This total opened at a 9 but has dropped to an 8.5 in some spots as of early Sunday morning. I know the weather is not ideal in Kansas City today as it will be rather chilly for this game but I really like the over a lot here. Traditionally I like to look for overs, one of my favorite situations is when a strong team is on the road but has a struggling pitcher on the mound and the home team has a big name pitcher going. This tends to lead to strong line value. That is because the line on the total is generally kept down and yet the number should be bigger because of the hot road team hitting well but the weaker home team also getting some solid scoring because they are hosting plus facing a struggling pitcher. So, in terms of what I just outlined there, this one is all systems go. The Braves have Kyle Wright on the mound and he struggled in spring training and that carried right into his first start this season as well. As for the Royals Greinke, he has a decent ERA but has been giving up plenty of hits plus seems to be giving up a little more with each start. Also, now he faces a red hot Braves lineup. Atlanta has seen 8 of last 9 games total at least 9 runs and those 8 have averaged 11 runs apiece and the Braves lineup has been very hot here at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals bullpen has been one of the worst in baseball and KC has seen their last 5 games all total more than 10 runs and these games have actually averaged 12.4 runs apiece. More of the same here. OVER 8.5 in Kansas City |
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04-16-23 | Rapid Bucuresti v. CS U Craiova OVER 2.25 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
Rotation # 206881: Romania Liga 1 Sunday OVER 2.5 goals +120 in Universitatea Craiova vs Rapid @ 2 ET - We need 3 here to be a winner but I like our odds on that in this one. Universitatea Craiova is off a 3-2 loss and their last 4 matches have averaged 3 goals apiece and they have both scored and conceded in all 4 matches! Rapid is off a 2-0 loss and will respond after being held scoreless. Prior to that match, Rapid had both scored and conceded in 3 straight matches and those averaged 3 goals apiece. Both clubs have had 2 draws and a loss so far in the play-off post-season and so they are extra hungry for a victory here. That said, and given both clubs propensity to both score and concede in recent weeks, I am looking for at least a 2-1 final here. OVER 2.5 +120 in Universitatea Craiova |
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04-16-23 | Manchester United v. Nottingham Forest OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -130 | 5 h 6 m | Show |
Rotation #200017 Sunday OVER 2.5 in Nottingham Forest vs Manchester United @ 11:30 AM ET - There is a hidden key to the value in this one because if you look at overall stats rather than home/road stats it could lead you astray here. No team has conceded fewer goals at home than Man U this season and no team on the road has scored fewer goals than Nottingham Forest this season. However, this match is at Nottingham Forest. They are a scrappy bunch at home and Man U has had trouble giving up too many road goals all season long. That said, I am looking for Man U to push hard after what just happened against Seville when they blew a late 2-0 lead in Europa League action. Both of these clubs are currently dealing with injury issues right now but I just can't see Man U being held down here as they will be relentless on the attack no matter which players are out there on the pitch. At the same time, I do not see the hosts being held scoreless at home as they have been so strong here this season. That said, looking for at least a 2-1 final here. OVER 2.5 in Nottingham Forest |
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04-16-23 | Universitatea Cluj v. Petrolul 52 +205 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
Rotation #206890: Romania Liga 1 Sunday Petrolul Ploiesti Money Line +200 vs Universitatea Cluj @ 11:15 AM ET - Universitatea Cluj has lost 3 of 4 matches and allowed 9 goals in the 3 losses! Also, they have been outscored 6 to 0 in losing both road matches during this stretch. Now they visit a Petro club that has won 4 straight and by a combined score of 5 to 0. That's right, they have not allowed a goal in 4 straight matches and won all 4 and are playing with confidence right now to say the least. By the way, they have met Universitatea Cluj twice this season and they won both matches and the aggregate score was 3 to 0. I thought about playing the goal line here at a Pick'em on Petro but they have had only 3 draws in 33 matches this season. They just do not settle for draws and, the way they are playing right now, I am not going to pass up on this big underdog money line opportunity! Petrolul Ploiesti +200 |
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04-16-23 | Arsenal v. West Ham United OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-2 | Win | 100 | 3 h 20 m | Show |
Rotation # 200021: English Premier League OVER 2.5 in West Ham United vs Arsenal @ 9 AM ET - We should see plenty of goals here as Arsenal should be ruthless on the attack after blowing a 2-0 lead at Liverpool last week and having to settle for a 2-2 draw. The key to the over here is I do expect West Ham United to make the net ripple at least once as they are at home and will put up a fight here. Across all competitions, West Ham has scored at least 1 goal in 7 straight and they have averaged scoring 1.6 goals during this stretch. 4 of last 5 matches between these clubs have totaled at least 3 goals and these averaged 3.6 goals apiece. 9 of Arsenal's last 11 matches across all competitions have totaled at least 3 goals and those 11 have averaged 4 goals apiece. Arsenal is a great club but has allowed at least 1 goal in 6 of last 7 and actually allowed 2 goals in 3 of those 6. Excellent line value here. OVER 2.5 in West Ham United |
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04-15-23 | Phillies +102 v. Reds | Top | 0-13 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
MLB Saturday Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +100 @ Cincinnati Reds @ 4:10 ET - Great market value here. This line opened up at a -135 on the Phillies and now they are actually the dog in this game. I understand the line move based on Strahm versus Ashcraft but couple keys with that and I will get more into the pitching in a moment though I am making this MLB bet with action on the starting pitchers as per usual. The fact is I love fading big market moves like this as I have a ton of respect for the odds makers. Also, when you look at these teams, they have similar records so far this season and the Phillies are without Hoskins for the entire season and Harper is still out right now too. However, when the dust settles on this season I would not be surprised to see the Reds again lose 100 games and the Phillies to again be in the post-season. Yes, there is still that much of a gap between these teams. That said, this is a line value spot. The Phillies have the much better lineup. Also, Ashcraft is off to a solid start for the Reds but his lone day start was against a Pirates team that does not have a lineup like this Phillies team does. That said, note that Ashcraft was 0-3 in his 7 day starts last season and had an ERA north of 7.00 in those. As for Strahm, he has yet to allow an earned run this season and was solid in day game action last season. Yes the Phillies have been hit and miss so far this season but this looks like a great value spot for them. Look for them to hit again today and the Reds to lose for the 8th time in last 10 games! PHILADELPHIA +100 |
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04-15-23 | Hawks +9.5 v. Celtics | Top | 99-112 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
NBA Saturday Atlanta Hawks +9.5 @ Boston Celtics @ 3:30 ET - The Celtics are a fantastic team that also creates match-up problems for the Hawks. However, in this post-season match-up I am going to challenge Boston to win the first game by double digits. If there was one game where Atlanta could do something a little different and surprise then I would say this would be it. The Hawks can shake some things up, give the Celtics some different looks, tweak a few things that would make Boston uncomfortable. I would say the Celtics still respond and prevail and get the SU win here but not the ATS cover. I look for the Hawks to surprise. Atlanta's win by double digits at Miami now looks more impressive after the way the Heat took care of the Bulls last night in the finale of the play-in round. Also, if you look at the entirety of this season, Atlanta was rarely blown out. This is particularly true since Thanksgiving which, of course, we as a very long time ago. There are just not many double digit losses for the Hawks over the past nearly 5 months. Also, in the last meaningful match-up between the teams, so NOT the regular season finale, the Celtics did win by 9 points and the game was AT Atlanta. However, Boston outscored the Hawks by 30 points from 3 point land! Yes the Celtics shot lights out and made 20 threes compared to just 10 for Atlanta. That means not including the 3-ball, Atlanta won the game by 21 points. And in the first meeting, the Celtics won by 25 at Atlanta but outscored the Hawks by 42 points from 3-point land as they made 14 more threes! It is pretty amazing how hot Boston was in both games and certainly Hawks not known for defense but you can see why this has resulted in some extra value baked into this line and I feel Atlanta is absolutely going to D up more in this one as playoff time has arrived. Play ATLANTA +9.5 |
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04-15-23 | Nets v. 76ers -8 | Top | 101-121 | Win | 100 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
Saturday NBA Philadelphia 76ers -8.5 vs Brooklyn Nets @ 1 ET - The Nets just don't have the horses to compete with a loaded and healthy Sixers team that could win it all this season. The 76ers will want to establish their superiority early in this series and they won all 4 games against Brooklyn this season including dominating them in the season finale. Keep in mind they beat them by 9 at home earlier this season and that was when the Nets had Durant, Irving, and Simmons all on the floor. Durant now in Phoenix, Irving in Dallas, and Simmons recovering from injury as per usual with him. I know Brooklyn has other guys but this team just can not match up well with Philly and I look for Sixers to roll big at home here. Keep in in mind that 9-point win earlier this season saw the Sixers without Embiid and Harden and yet Philly still won big. Depth, bench play, home court, starting five prowess...all the edges to Sixers in this one. PHILADELPHIA -8.5 |
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04-15-23 | Leicester v. Manchester City OVER 3.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
Rotation #200025: English Premier League Saturday OVER 3.5 in Manchester City vs Leicester @ 12:30 ET - Leicester might get some extra bounce in their step here with new manager Dean Smith. Look for them to be on the attack here and possibly get one goal. However, the reason that Manchester City is such a huge favorite here is because they are on a rampage right now and can not be stopped. They have won 5 straight matches and averaged 4.8 goals per match in this red hot run! Leicester is off a 1-0 loss but was fortunate they did not allow more goals in that one. Also, they allowed about two goals per match in their 14 matches prior to that tight loss. Now they face the current most high-powered attack in all of football. This one gets ugly for Leicester as they are on the road here. I am looking for at least a 3-1 final here but truly expect much more given the circumstances. OVER 3.5 in Manchester City |
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04-15-23 | Sepsi v. CFR Cluj OVER 2.25 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
Rotation #206869: Romania Liga 1 Saturday OVER 2 goals -135 in CFR Cluj vs Sepsi @ Noon ET - The ability to get an over 2 at a very fair juice price of -135 here makes this a must play the way I see it. CFR Cluj is very hungry for a victory after 3 straight draws and they are hosting here. Oddly enough, in the regular season no club had fewer draws than CFR Cluj as they had 3 in 30 matches for a 10% draw rate. The reason I keep talking about draws here is because a 1-1 match gets us a push but a 2-1 match would us a winner. I see plenty of reason to expect each club to score at least 1 goal here and then I feel the extra motivation in pushing for a victory is going to be a difference maker in a match that should end with at least 3 goals scoring in a 2-1 final the way I see it. CFR Cluj has had 9 straight Romania Liga 1 matches total at least 2 goals. Sepsi has had 16 of last 17 matches total at least 2 goals. Also, only 1 of last 8 Sepsi matches has ended in a draw. Looking for at least 3 goals and here and love the value with this total. OVER 2 goals -135 in CFR Cluj |
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04-15-23 | Crystal Palace v. Southampton OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
Rotation #200005: English Premier League Saturday OVER 2.5 goals +135 in Southampton vs Crystal Palace @ 10 AM ET - This one very important in the relegation battle and I am looking for plenty of attacking from both sides and feel we have great value with this total. Southampton should get some scoring going here as they are on their home pitch but, as for Crystal Palace, they are hot since the managerial change and are like a new club. Crystal Palace has scored 7 goals in their 2 victories in their past two matches. Overall, 3 straight matches for Crystal Palace have totaled at least 3 goals and those matches have averaged 4.7 goals apiece. Southampton has allowed an average of 2.5 goals per match last 4 matches. Southampton has scored an average of 2 goals in last two matches as a host. 4 of the last 5 meetings between these clubs have totaled at least 3 goals as well. Take advantage of the big plus money in this one. OVER 2.5 goals +135 in Southampton |
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04-14-23 | Avalanche v. Predators +170 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
NHL Friday Nashville Predators Money Line +165 vs Colorado Avalanche @ 8:05 ET - The Avalanche need one more win to win the Central Division title. The Predators have lost all 3 meetings to the Avs this season and got swept out of the playoffs by Colorado last season. Guess which team is going to be more amped up here for this one? Nashville proved again in last night's win over Minnesota that there is no quit in this team even though they only recently got eliminated from post-season contention. The Predators also have the goalie edge in this one in my opinion. Saros played last night so it will likely be Lankinen here but note that the Avs used Georgiev last night. That means it will likely be Francouz getting the start here. He is a rock solid goalie but got hurt back in early February. This would be only his 2nd start since he returned from injury. Francouz allowed a pair of goals in both the 2nd and 3rd periods of his first start back. Predators will put pressure on him early and often. Of course the defending cup champion Avalanche are a great team but the Preds are very motivated here. They are not going to the playoffs and they still remember what happened in last year's post-season and they would love nothing more than to get a small measure of payback by knocking off the Avs here and preventing them from winning the division. Nashville has had only one bad game defensively last 10 games and has allowed an average of only 1.8 goals per game in the other 9 games. The Avalanche have allowed about 3 goals per game last 8 games. I love the underdog value here and expect an upset to wrap up the NHL regular season. NASHVILLE +165 |
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04-14-23 | Sabres v. Blue Jackets OVER 7 | Top | 5-2 | Push | 0 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
NHL Friday OVER 7 in Columbus Blue Jackets vs Buffalo Sabres @ 7:35 ET - Back to back spot for both clubs. Sabres off emotional OT win in goalie Craig Anderson's final game of his career. They gave a lot on the ice defensively trying to get a win. Defense could be flat here. Columbus was worst team in the East this season and it is due in large part to poor defense and sub-par netminding. We should see more than 7 here. Certainly don't want a push but to get to at least 7 and guarantee a non-loss we just need each club to get to 3 goals. Note that Blue Jackets, prior to 3-2 OT upset of Penguins last night, had allowed at least 3 goals in 19 of last 20 games. Amazingly, Columbus has allowed 5 goals per game during this stretch. The Sabres have allowed at least 3 goals in 26 of 32 games. Buffalo has allowed an average of 4 goals per game during this stretch. You can see why a 5-4 game here would not at all be a surprise given the situation and given numbers like these. OVER 7 in Columbus |
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04-14-23 | Bulls +188 v. Heat | Top | 91-102 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 46 m | Show |
NBA Friday Chicago Bulls Money Line +185 @ Miami Heat @ 7 ET - This Bulls team is healthy and hungry and just rallied from a 4th quarter double digit deficit at Toronto to beat the Raptors outright on the road. Nothing the Heat can throw at them will phase them. As a matter of fact, nothing has! The Bulls won all 3 regular season meetings and by at least 8 points apiece and 2 of the 3 were at Miami. I just don't think this Heat team is right. In the present time, things are a bit off in Miami. Jimmy Butler skipped practice yesterday for personal reasons and the Heat also still have a couple guys banged up. Their injury report does not look nearly as clean as Chicago's does. I feel that after losing to the Hawks team at home, this Heat team is very vulnerable right now and this Bulls team is loaded with confidence. I sense an upset here as Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan both have huge games here. I like the fact the Bulls won at Toronto despite their starters making only 4 of 20 three-pointers in that game. The Hawks beat Miami by double digits despite shooting poorly from the 3-point line and poorly from the free throw line. Atlanta dominated the Heat on the boards in that game and I just don't think Miami is hungry enough right now. This Bulls team is. We again don't need the points the way I see it! CHICAGO Money Line +185 |
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04-14-23 | Diamondbacks v. Marlins OVER 9 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Miami Marlins vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 6:40 ET - The Marlins are hitting better than usual early this season. The Diamondbacks also are scoring just fine. The problem for each here is a pair of struggling starters. Bumgarner is off to a rough start this season for the Dbacks and walking too many guys and he is known for struggling more on the road so things are unlikely to improve here. As for Rogers, he is off to a sluggish start this season too and has allowed 3 earned runs in each of his two starts though he was unable to complete 5 innings in either one. Arizona is 6-2 last 8 games and has averaged scoring 6.3 runs per game during this stretch. Miami is 4-4 last 8 games and has scored a respectable average of 4.4 runs per game in last 7 games. The Marlins have allowed an average of 8 runs per game in their 7 losses this season. OVER 9 in Miami |
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04-14-23 | Norwich City v. Middlesbrough OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
Rotation #200277: English League Championship Friday OVER 2.5 goals -125 in Middlesbrough vs Norwich City @ 3 ET - Norwich City is off a frustrating scoreless draw with Rotterham United as they dominated that match but had nothing to show for it. They will be hell-bent on scoring in this match after the way that played out. Norwich City did have success hosting Middlesbrough earlier this season though they lost 2-1. The hosts were very strong in that match and I look for more of the same here. Trouble for Norwich City is that Middlesbrough is hosting this one and is one of the top clubs in the league plus one of the highest scoring. The hosts will get their goals here but they have been conceding a lot this season as well including of late. Middlesbrough has allowed 8 goals last 3 matches but also scored 9 goals last 4 matches! They are a favorite here in this match for a reason but I also do not foresee them delivering a clean sheet here either. That said, this looks like it has 2-1 written all over it. At a minimum, I am looking for 3 goals and that has been the average total goals scored in this home club's matches this season. OVER 2.5 goals -125 in Middlesbrough |
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04-14-23 | Botosani v. UTA Arad OVER 2 | Top | 2-0 | Push | 0 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
Rotation #206893: Romania Liga 1 Friday OVER 2 goals -120 in UTA vs FC Botosani @ 2 ET - Both clubs have trended to lower-scoring games of late but I love the value of the over 2 in this one. Both regular season meetings between these clubs totaled at least 3 goals and the match-up with UTA hosting totaled 4 goals and now they meet here again. Also, 5 of last 6 UTA matches have totaled at least 2 goals and UTA has scored 22 goals in their 16 home matches this season. UTA has averaged scoring 2 goals in last 4 home matches! FC Botosani is off a 1-0 win but, prior to this, 8 of last 10 of their matches totaled at least 2 goals. FC Botosani has scored at least 1 goal in 10 of last 12 matches. You can see, given all of the above, why I am expecting each club to make the net ripple at least once in this one and I like the value with this low total as I again look for a meeting between these clubs to get to at least the 3-goal mark. OVER 2 goals -120 in UTA |
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04-14-23 | Voluntari v. U Craiova 1948 OVER 2.25 | Top | 3-3 | Win | 101 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
Rotation #206873 Friday OVER 2 goals -130 in U Craiova 1948 vs FC Voluntari @ 11 AM ET - The ability to get an over 2 in a reasonable price range of -130 is too good to pass up on here. FC Voluntari 13 of last 16 matches have totaled at least 2 goals. Of course we are looking for 3 or more here and to get a win and that is why I like this match-up even more because U Craiova 1948 has been involved in a number of high-scoring matches of late. 3 of last 4 matches have totaled at least 3 goals. Also, if you look at just the matches in which U Craiova 1948 has hosted, 4 of last 6 have totaled at least 3 goals and the hosts have averaged scoring 2 goals per match. The way FC Voluntari is going as well - scoring at least 1 goal in 15 of last 17 matches - I am looking for at least a 2-1 final in this match. OVER 2 goals -130 in U Craiova 1948 |
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04-13-23 | Flyers -108 v. Blackhawks | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
NHL Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Flyers Money Line -110 @ Chicago Blackhawks @ 8:35 ET - The Flyers and Blackhawks have long been eliminated from post-season contention. But, interestingly, the draft lottery position of Chicago could be negatively impacted with a win here. Philadelphia is locked into their position. Also, both teams off wins but the Blackhawks win was over the Penguins and helped eliminate them from the post-season. That could leave Chicago flat here and Philly, based on the key circumstances here, is likely to prove to be the hungrier team. Note that the Blackhawks have won B2B games only ONCE since late February! The Flyers have certainly not been great but at least they have 6 wins last 14 games and also there could be some extra motivation here to get the win and get to 75 points in the standings. This is also a revenge game from the Flyers losing at home against Chicago earlier this season. 10* PHILADELPHIA -110 |
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04-13-23 | Tigers v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit Tigers @ 7:07 ET - Two struggling starting pitchers and a manageable number here to work with and a Blue Jays team that can mash the ball at home and a Tigers lineup that should do enough to insure this one gets over the total given this pitching situation - not just the starters but also the bullpen situation. So the play here is action on pitchers as is the norm for me. The Tigers have averaged about 4 runs per game last 8 games but of course they are a big dog here for a reason. The Blue Jays have won 7 of 8 games and averaged scoring about 6 runs per game. Bassitt got hit hard in first start for Toronto then walked 5 guys in 6 innings in his 2nd start. The past two seasons Bassitt has a higher ERA in night games than day games. Detroit's Turnbull has seen his strikeout numbers very low this season and he has allowed 12 earned runs and struggled in each of his first two starts. He is not the same pitcher he was before the Tommy John surgery. Maybe he will get it back but he is not there yet for sure. 10* OVER 9 in Toronto |
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04-13-23 | Maple Leafs v. Rangers OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
NHL Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 6.5 in New York Rangers vs Toronto Maple Leafs @ 7:05 ET - Both teams going to the post-season. Both teams locked into their spots. They want to just stay sharp here and also there will be little defensive intensity. No one wants to get hurt right before the playoffs start. There is a lot of talent in terms of scoring firepower on both these clubs. I expect this to play out as a rather wide open affair with plenty of open ice and great scoring opportunities for both clubs. We get solid value as, if each team gets to 3 goals we have at least a 4-3 final here and the over 6.5 is available in this one without any juice. Note that the Maple Leafs have won 9 of 14 games and have scored an average of 3.5 goals during this stretch. Rangers are off a loss but had won 10 of 14 games prior to that defeat. New York averaged scoring 4 goals in those 14 games. We should see a rather wide-open affair given the situation here and given the numbers noted above you can see why I like the over here. 10* OVER 6.5 in New York Rangers |
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04-13-23 | Sevilla v. Manchester United -1.5 | Top | 2-2 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 9 m | Show |
Rotation #224406: Europa League Thursday 10* Top Play Manchester United -1.5 +115 vs Sevilla @ 3 ET - Sevilla is a big name team but having a down season and in poor current form. Manchester United is red hot right now and should dominate this match. They also can get payback here for a 2-1 loss to Sevilla when these clubs last met in Europa League action. Sevilla has allowed an average of 2 goals per match last 9 matches. Manchester United has allowed a TOTAL of only 2 goals in last 6 matches! I am forecasting a 2-0 final here but we could see much more than that and, either way, looking for the hosts to make a statement here in the first leg of this one and win this one by a multi-goal margin. 10* Manchester United -1.5 +115 |
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04-12-23 | Sharks v. Flames OVER 6.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -128 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
NHL Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 6.5 in Calgary Flames vs San Jose Sharks @ 10:05 ET - I know the Flames have been playing some lower-scoring games of late but now that their playoff hopes have been dashed and they are facing a Sharks team known for high-scoring games, look for a barn-burner here. The Flames are off a 3-2 loss in the shootout versus Nashville and that game was in Calgary. However, prior to that SO loss on home ice staying under the total, Calgary's last 6 home games featured 4 that totaled at least 7 goals. Those 4 overs actually averaged 8.5 goals in regulation time! This should be a wild one here because the Flames have allowed about 3.5 goals per game last dozen games so Sharks should get their goals here. But the key is San Jose has been giving up piles of goals so this game should see a lot of open ice with plenty of scoring chances. The Sharks 9 of last 10 games have totaled at least 7 goals. These 9 games have averaged 8 goals and we only need 7 to be a winner here. Looking for a 4-3 type game at a minimum here but we'll likely see even much more scoring! 10* OVER 6.5 in Calgary |
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04-12-23 | Thunder +192 v. Pelicans | Top | 123-118 | Win | 192 | 17 h 52 m | Show |
NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play Oklahoma City Thunder +192 @ New Orleans Pelicans @ 9:30 ET - As they say, it is a numbers game. Last night we cashed with Hawks money line at solid plus money and, again, for numbers reasons I am going with Oklahoma City on the money line tonight rather than taking the points. The Thunder are 12-8 SU last 20 games. The road team has won each of last 3 meetings between OKC and NO. The Pelicans are 12-12 last 24 games and all 12 of the wins were by at least 7 points. There is a chance having the +5.5 points with Oklahoma City could help us here but you can also see why that is unlikely to be the case. The Thunder are an up and coming team and the Pelicans, with Williamson, are too. But Williamson has been out for a long time. Lets not forget that New Orleans started the season 23-12 but right around the time was the last time Williamson played. The Pelicans are 19-28 since then. They also are only a mediocre 10-10 in the 20 home games since then. I know they have played better overall of late but so too have the Thunder and if you are going to give me nearly 2 to 1 odds in what many could argue is a toss up game I am not going to pass it up. I look for a hungry OKC team to steal the upset win here. 10* OKLAHOMA CITY +192 |
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04-12-23 | Stars v. Blues OVER 6 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
NHL Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 6 in St Louis Blues vs Dallas Stars @ 7:35 ET - Stars are motivated to win as they have Central Division title hopes. Blues are not going to post-season and will want to play the role of spoiler here. However, St Louis will have to try to outscore them to do so and I certainly expect them to be aggressive on the attack here. Look for plenty of goals here as the Stars have won 6 of 7 and averaged 4 goals per game during this hot streak. I know they have not been allowing many goals but Dallas is really going to be pressured by the Blues in what is the home finale for St Louis. The Blues have been scoring plenty of goals. They also generally have struggled to stop teams too. With a total of just 6 goals posted on this game I like our chances as 9 of last 10 Blue games and 18 of last 21 have totaled at least 6 goals! Look for an entertaining affair as these division rivals meet for first time since November. 10* OVER 6 in St Louis |
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04-12-23 | Brewers v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 3:40 ET - Brewers had to put Woodruff on the 15-day injured list so Junk is getting this start for Milwaukee. He was not overly impressive in the spring and was in the minors for a reason. Also, he has struggled thus far at the MLB level but was called up to make this start and it is on the road so will not be an easy outing for him. As for the Diamondbacks, they are starting Jameson and he has been a reliever so far this season. So really this is a match-up of two unproven guys and is likely to involve a lot of bullpen work. So the starters do not matter much here and I am looking for an over as the lineups will be the story in this one. I know the Diamondbacks were shutdown yesterday but this followed a 4-game winning streak in which they averaged 8 runs per game. Also the win just prior to that 4-game run also saw them score 8 runs. As for the Brewers, they scored 7 runs yesterday and have won 8 of 10 games and averaged scoring 7 runs in those 8 victories. This one is up to a 9.5 but definitely looking for double digits in this one. 10* OVER 9.5 in Arizona |
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04-12-23 | Chelsea v. Real Madrid -145 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
Rotation #242214: Champions League Wednesday 10* Top Play Real Madrid -145 vs Chelsea @ 3 ET - Chelsea is still too much of a mess to have faith in right now and Real Madrid is fully focused on the Champions League action and will have too much firepower for an out of sorts Chelsea side. The Blues have a new manager but they still are struggling to return to form. Until they do, Chelsea must be faded. Chelsea is winless in their last 4 matches and has not even scored a goal in their last 3 matches. Real Madrid is off a loss but this followed wins in 4 of 5. Not only did they score 2 goals in the defeat, Real Madrid has scored an average of 3 goals per game last 6 matches! They also rested some key players in that loss to Villarreal in Spanish LaLiga action because, as noted above, their focus right now is the Champions League. Those rested stars plus facing a struggling Chelsea club plus the home pitch factor all adds up to value on the host in this one. 10* REAL MADRID -145 |
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04-11-23 | Jets v. Wild OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -116 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
NHL Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 5.5 in Minnesota Wild vs Winnipeg Jets @ 8:05 ET - Both teams are motivated by playoff implications but don't look for too much of a tight defensive battle here. That's because both teams were in action last night and both got wins and both used their top goalies last night. It is likely to be a match-up of Rittich and Fleury in this one. Rittich has allowed at least 3 goals in 3 straight starts. Fleury has allowed 3 or more goals in 3 of last 4 starts. That said, this one is an over the way I see it. We have a low total to work with and note that Winnipeg has actually scored 6 goals in 3 of last 5 games, including last night's win, so this team really is starting to jell at the right time. Minnesota has scored 3 or more goals in 12 of last 16 games including 4 in last night's win. Also, the Wild have scored an average of 3.8 goals in those 16 games. 10* OVER 5.5 in Minnesota |
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04-11-23 | Hawks +190 v. Heat | Top | 116-105 | Win | 190 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
NBA Tuesday 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks Money Line +190 @ Miami Heat @ 7:30 ET - Even though Trae Young and Jimmy Butler will not play in this one due to load management - KIDDING guys - is it not great that post-season basketball is finally here and we don't have to worry as much about who is playing and who is not playing? Also, less worry about guys taking games off even though they are playing? The fact is these games truly count and teams are going to bring it. That said, I do feel a key here is that neither Kyle Lowry nor Max Strus are 100% right now for the Heat. I do expect both players to be on the floor tonight but these guys are hurting some and are key pieces in the backcourt rotation for Miami. That said, and though I have a ton of respect for Jimmy Butler and his big-game ability, I expect Trae Young to key the storyline here for a hungry Hawks team and we do not even need the points. While it may seem risky to pass up on the points and take the money line here, I love the value. If you look at Miami's last 32 games they went only 16-16 and we can get a big plus money going against them on the money line. Also, their last dozen games saw them go 7-5 SU but all 7 wins by at least 7 points. Having a +5 going against the Heat would not have been beneficial in any of those games. As for the Hawks, 7 of their last 9 road losses were by at least 6 points. Having the points just unlikely to matter but I am expecting an outright upset as Atlanta got 3 big wins to end the season before an OT loss to the Sixers and then a 5 point loss in season finale to the Celtics and they were without Young in the latter. No shame in either one of those defeats and I feel the road dog is the hungrier and healthier team here and gets the outright upset. 10* ATLANTA +190 |
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04-11-23 | Blue Jackets v. Flyers OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
NHL Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 6.5 in Philadelphia Flyers vs Columbus Blue Jackets @ 7 ET - All 3 games between these clubs have totaled at least 7 goals and the 3 games have averaged 8 goals. Flyers coach John Tortorella use to coach the Blue Jackets so there is extra incentive in this game and they will not lay down here at home. Yes it is a meaningless game from the standpoint these two teams are two of the worst clubs in the league and not going to the post-season but I feel the Flyers will have some extra jump in their skates tonight on home ice. This Blue Jackets team will respond as the Flyers, like them, are giving up quite a few goals of late. Philly has allowed 4.4 goals per game last 7 games and all 7 were losses. The Blue Jackets have lost 14 of 18 games and incredibly they have allowed an average of 5.1 goals per game during this stretch. This looks like a 5-4 type game and we only need 4-3 to be a winner here. Either way, this one is hard to deny that either team should get to at least 3 goals which means it would then get to at least 4-3 as a final. 10* OVER 6.5 in Philadelphia |
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04-11-23 | Marlins v. Phillies -139 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -139 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -139 vs Miami Marlins @ 6:40 ET - This line has dropped from the 160 range to the 140 range. I fully understand the line move but the fact is we now have line value with the defending champs at home. Luzardo has pitched great for Miami but Alcantara also had been pitching great and we saw what happened yesterday as the Phillies exploded with a huge performance at the plate. This Phillies team is a different team when at home. Nola is also a different pitcher when at home. This is his first home start this season and also this is Luzardo's first road start this season. The odds makers of aware of all the key dynamics here and that is why this line opened as high as it did. The drop on the line is because the markets have not grasped the fact just yet that the Marlins have a weak lineup again this season and some suspect arms in the bullpen too. The Phillies, even without Hoskins and Harper right now, are the much better overall team in all facets of the game. I have a ton of respect for Luzardo but he could struggle here in his first road start and facing a lineup that has some guys with familiarity against him. Also, I do expect Nola to dominate at home. 10* PHILADELPHIA -139 |
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04-11-23 | Bayern Munich v. Manchester City -135 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
Rotation #224202: Champions League Tuesday 10* Top Play Manchester City Money Line -135 vs Bayern Munich @ 3 ET - I love the angle here of Pep Guardiola facing Thomas Tuchel. The fact is Guardiola has a score to settle with Tuchel and he has got the hotter club right now. Back in the 2021 Champions League final Tuchel defeated Guardiola's City when he was with Chelsea. Remember too that this was just weeks after he also eliminated Man City in the semi-finals of the FA Cup. Payback time is here for Guardiola. Additionally, Erling Haaland was playing with Borussia Dortmund before going to Manchester City prior to this season. Dortmund lost all 7 meetings with Bayern Munich when Haaland played for Borussia. So the City star, just like the City manager, are out for blood here. Tuchel came to Munich from Chelsea and it was because Chelsea was struggling badly. Now he is here trying to fix a Bayern Munich club that is having a solid season, though not quite up to their lofty standards, but has struggled defensively of late. Having some leaky defense when you are taking on a City club that is on an absolute tear is a recipe for disaster. Of course this Bayern Munich team, top heavyweight of Germany for many years, commands respect. However, Manchester City has been the top team in England in recent years too. The point is that this is a great money line value to have the host team that is in better overall current form and playing with key revenge factors. City has won 8 straight matches and scored an average of 4 goals per victory and there is certainly nothing average about that. Bayern Munich is off a 1-0 victory but, prior to that, had lost 2 of 3 matches and also - before that clean sheet - had allowed an average of 2.2 goals last 4 matches. City, on the other hand, has been dominant in the goals allowed department too of late. 10* MANCHESTER CITY -135 |
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04-10-23 | Mariners v. Cubs OVER 8 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 8 in Chicago Cubs vs Seattle Mariners @ 7:40 ET - This is another line value spot due to the pitcher on the mound. Yes, Luis Castillo is a strong pitcher and the Seattle right-hander is off to a great start this season. However, both those outings were at home. In recent seasons, Castillo has not been as strong on the road as he has been at home. Also, mild evening expected in Chicago with light southerly winds. That also helps the hitters here. Additionally, the Cubs are off an 8-2 home loss and will be ready to respond at the plate here. The problem for Chicago is that they will have Drew Smyly on the mound. He had a rough spring and then that carried right into his first start this season as well. That does not bode well for him here as he faces a Mariners team that is off a 7-6 loss in extra innings yesterday. By the way, that 12-inning game at Cleveland also means that Seattle used up some extra bullpen arms. So the fact is that we have great situational edges for runs here yet we are dealing with a low total of 8 because Castillo is the scheduled starter for the Mariners here. 5 of last 6 Cubs have totaled double digits in runs and those 5 averaged 13.4 runs apiece. The last 7 Mariners games have averaged 9.6 runs per game and only one failed to get to the 8-run mark. I like the odds we see another double-digits runs game at Wrigley Field in this one. 10* OVER 8 in Chicago Cubs |
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04-10-23 | Maple Leafs v. Panthers OVER 7 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
NHL Monday 10* Top Play OVER 7 +105 in Florida Panthers vs Toronto Maple Leafs @ 7 ET - I know Florida is on a winning streak and riding a red-hot goalie in the form of Alex Lyon. However, the Maple Leafs seek revenge for a recent 3-2 OT loss at home to the Panthers. Toronto has plenty of firepower to challenge Lyon here. However, at the same time, Florida should score plenty here. They should have had a lot more than just 2 goals before the 2 late goals led to the 4-2 win at Washington. The fact is Charlie Lindgren had a very strong game in goal for the Capitals in that one. The Panthers have scored an average of 5 goals per game in winning 5 more games since that OT win at Toronto jump started a win streak. The Leafs are off a 7-1 win versus Montreal and 10 of their last 16 games have totaled at least 7 goals. I know this is a big total on this game but the Panthers are hot but will also struggle to slow down an uber-talented Maple Leafs team here too. 10* OVER 7 +105 in Florida |
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04-10-23 | Islanders v. Capitals OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
NHL Monday 10* Top Play OVER 5.5 in Washington Capitals vs New York Islanders @ 7 ET - The Capitals could get some guys back for this game but, either way, I look for Washington to put up a helluva fight here. The Islanders are coached by Lane Lambert who was an assistant under Barry Trotz through the 2018 Stanley Cup run when they beat Vegas in the Finals to win it all. Trotz then bolted for the Islanders and Lambert went with him. The Caps would love to beat the Isles and possibly put a dent in their playoff hopes. Washington also has revenge from losing the most recent meeting at home after winning the first two games and both those first two totaled at least 6 goals and I suspect this one will too. That's because, even though I like the Capitals to play a spirited game here I still do not trust them in their own zone. They will give up too many goals again most likely. The Islanders have scored at least 4 goals in 7 of last 11 games. The Caps have allowed 4 goals per game their last dozen games. 10* OVER 5.5 goals in Washington |
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04-10-23 | Rapid Bucuresti v. Sepsi OVER 2.25 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -51 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
Rotation #206861: Romania Liga 1 Monday 10* Top Play OVER 2 goals -140 in Sepsi vs Rapid @ 1:30 ET - 15 of last 16 Sepsi matches have totaled at least 2 goals and these matches have averaged 3 goals so there is excellent line value here with this total available at over 2 goals for some extra juice. Looking for at least 3 here as Sepsi is off a 2-1 home loss and will be looking to respond here on a home pitch that has seen them score an average of 2 goals per match last 8 matches. They scored at least 1 goal in all 8 of those matches! As for Rapid, they have scored 5 goals in the 2 wins over Sepsi this season and both matches reached the 3-goal mark. Rapid has seen 19 of last 22 matches total at least 2 goals. Their last 3 road matches all have totaled at least 3 goals. More of the same expected here. 10* OVER 2 goals -140 in Sepsi |
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04-10-23 | Middlesbrough v. Bristol City OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
Rotation #200269: English Championship League Monday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 in Bristol City vs Middlesbrough @ 12:30 ET - Bristol City is hosting and scores better at home than on the road. Middlesbrough has a knack for high-scoring results and particularly on the road where they have allowed 32 goals but scored 35 in their 20 matches this season. That comes out to an average total of 3.35 goals per match. I expect Bristol City to score at home and I also certainly do not see Middlesbrough going through this match without scoring. They are one of the highest scoring clubs in the league. That said, what about the odds of a draw? They are very slim as Middlesbrough has only 1 draw in 20 road matches for a measly 5% draw rate. That is why I am fully expecting this match to get to at least a 2-1 final here. Bristol City has scored 14 goals in last 9 home matches. Middlesbrough has seen 9 of last 11 matches total at least 3 goals. Those 11 matches averaged nearly 4 goals apiece! 10* OVER 2.5 in Bristol City |
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04-10-23 | Mioveni v. Petrolul 52 OVER 2 | Top | 0-2 | Push | 0 | 7 h 33 m | Show |
Rotation #206857: Romania Liga 1 Monday 10* Top Play OVER 2 in Petrolul Ploiesti vs CS Mioveni @ 10:30 AM ET - The two matches between these clubs this season were very low-scoring. Also, Petrolul Ploiesti enters this match off 4 straight low-scoring matches. That said, this one is a contrarian play but CS Mioveni, prior to last week's 1-0 loss, had 12 of last 16 matches total at least two goals. Those dozen matches averaged 3 goals and I look for this one to get there too. 7 of last 8 CS Mioveni road matches have totaled at least 3 goals so they have definitely shown a tendency toward higher scoring matches as travelers. They were shutout 3-0 in most recent road match but this followed 7 straight road matches in which they scored at least one goal. Petrolul Ploiesti has scored at least 1 goal in 12 of last 15 home matches. Overall, they enter this match having scored at least 1 goal in 5 of last 6 matches. Keep in mind Petrolul Ploiesti had only 3 draws out of 30 matches in the regular season. That is just a 10% draw rate and with each team, per the above, likely to get to 1 goal then we should be looking at a 2-1 final at a minimum here. 10* OVER 2 in Petrolul Ploiesti |
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04-10-23 | Rotherham United v. Norwich City -1 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
Rotation #200234: English Championship League Monday 10* Top Play Norwich City Goal Line -1 goal vs Rotherham United @ 10 AM ET - Both clubs back on track with wins Friday but Norwich has a huge edge on home pitch here and is working hard to get back into the Premier League. They are on the cusp of a playoff position but again need maximum points in the table this week. Norwich City was relegated from the Premier League last season and they continue to battle to get back into it. They have had only modest success on their home pitch this season but that is an extra motivator here as well and they will take advantage of a road-adverse side in this one. Rotherham United is 2-9-9 on the road this season with a league-worst 11 goals on enemy pitch in those 20 matches. They have been outscored 28-11 on the road and I look for the motivated hosts to roll in this one. 10* NORWICH CITY Goal Line -1 |
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04-09-23 | Avalanche v. Ducks OVER 6.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
NHL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 6.5 in Anaheim Ducks vs Colorado Avalanche @ 8:35 ET - We should see plenty of goals here. Back to back spot for Avalanche and they used Georgiev between the pipes last night and that means Francouz likely to get the start here. This will be his first action in two months so he could be rusty. Also one of his last starts before getting hurt was against the Ducks and he allowed 4 goals. I expect Anaheim to have some success here in terms of scoring on home ice but they can not stop anyone. The Ducks have allowed 4.5 goals per game in their last 13 games and lost 12 of those games. The Avs, however, also have been giving up a lot of shots on goal (including last night at LA) and they have been having some bigger goals allowed numbers of late. That plus a stellar offense is why Colorado has had 4 straight games total at least 7 goals. The red hot Avs have scored an average of 4 goals per game last 17 games. Looking for a 5-3 type final here given the line on this game and the situation. Expecting 8, should get at least 7 and I am going 10* OVER 6.5 in Anaheim |
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04-09-23 | Bruins v. Flyers OVER 6.5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 109 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
NHL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 6.5 in Philadelphia Flyers vs Boston Bruins @ 6:05 ET - The Flyers did have 27 shots on goal yesterday but were shutout by the Islanders in New York. Philly has lost 6 straight games and allowed at least 4 goals in all 6 losses. Now they face the best team in the league and are likely to give up plenty of goals. However, the Bruins defense may not be performing at its peak level as Boston just can't wait to get the post-season underway. This is a key here because the Flyers will surprise here with some scoring on home ice. Philadelphia has scored at least 3 goals in 9 straight home games! Not only that, they have averaged 4 goals scored per game during that 9-game stretch of solid scoring at home. As for the Bruins, they have won 12 of 13 games and scored an average of 4.5 goals in the 6 road wins that are a part of those 12 victories. 10* OVER 6.5 in Philadelphia |
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04-09-23 | Jazz +16.5 v. Lakers | Top | 117-128 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
NBA Sunday 10* Top Play Utah Jazz +16.5 @ Los Angeles Lakers @ 3:40 ET - So this game is priced this way because the Lakers have some motivation to win. However, 4 of the Lakers top 5 scorers on the injury report. Even if those guys, including LeBron and Davis, play here I have a very important question to ask? What would happen if the Lakers - already guaranteed of being involved in at least the play-in round - have a late double digit lead and keep guys like LeBron and Davis on the floor and one of them gets a season-ending injury? That can't happen, right? Exactly! That is why I love the big points here because the Jazz rested a bunch of guys versus Denver because they are dealing with some injury issues too but Utah rallied for the win. Yes, that game was at home and the Nuggets rested starters in the 4th quarter of that one. However, the point is that Utah just would not quit. They played hard and their coach has whoever is on the floor playing hard for him. This Jazz team is still playing competitive basketball and while that will not mean a SU win here I do feel an ATS cover is in the cards for the big dog here. Lakers have to be careful about injuries here and the Jazz do not as their season is over anyway. They will continue to compete hard here just like they showed against the Nuggets. Also, this is game #82 of the season of course and the Jazz have had only FIVE losses ALL SEASON by more than 16 points! 10* UTAH +16.5 |
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04-09-23 | Rangers v. Cubs OVER 8 | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 8 in Chicago Cubs vs Texas Rangers @ 2:20 ET - Jon Gray is a solid pitcher for sure but this is an afternoon road game at Wrigley Field and the wind, though light, will be blowing out and the Cubs are swinging hot bats. The 10-3 Chicago win yesterday was the 4th time last 5 games that a Cubs game has totaled at least 13 runs! Those 4 games averaged 14 runs and we just need 9 runs here to be a winner. Note that Jameson Taillon gets the start for the Cubs and he struggled in his first start this season which was also here at Wrigley Field. This Rangers team can hit and since Taillon use to pitch in the American League, the Rangers have extra familiarity with him and they have hit him well. Taillon was 5-0 in day starts last season but got hit at a .276 clip and that was 43 points higher than his average in night games. This is a tough match-up for him and the Cubs bullpen has not been good either. So I look for the Rangers bats to get back on track here but also the Cubbies lineup stays hot at this home and this one flies over the total. 10* OVER 8 in Chicago Cubs |
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04-09-23 | Steaua Bucharesti v. CFR Cluj OVER 2.25 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -52 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
Rotation #206853: Romania Liga 1 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 +125 in CFR Cluj vs FCSB @ 2 ET - This one we have to go over the 2.5 goals rather than just 2 goals but it gets us a nice plus money return and the odds are favoring a good shot at 3 goals here. These are two solid scoring clubs and CFR Cluj is off a 1-1 draw last week but this followed 6 straight matches in Liga 1 action totaling at least 3 goals! Those 6 matches averaged 4.3 goals apiece and I expect more of the same here! FCSB has seen 6 of last 10 matches total at least 3 goals. These 10 matches have averaged 3 goals apiece and 4 straight FCSB road matches have totaled 3 goals. This one will too as there is plenty of firepower for both these clubs! 10* OVER 2.5 +125 in CFR Cluj |
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04-09-23 | Arsenal v. Liverpool OVER 2.75 | Top | 2-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 15 m | Show |
Rotation #200189: English Premier League Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 in Liverpool vs Arsenal @ 11:30 AM ET - Liverpool is off a scoreless draw versus Chelsea. That seems to be the norm these days for that series. Also, Liverpool has been struggling recently but a lot of this is due to a road-heavy schedule. At home this season Liverpool has been fantastic and scoring plenty of goals. However, the same holds true for league-leading Arsenal on the road. Their away form has been fantastic and they are scoring an average of 2 goals per match as visitors. Liverpool also topping that 2-goal average as a host. That said, the value here is with the over as we only need something along the lines of a 2-1 final to be a victor buy many sings are pointing to a wild 3-2 type affair. This Arsenal club has never been more confident and they will be on the attack here. However, we all know that Liverpool is a different animal when they host and they will be answering Arsenal goal for goal in what should be a highly entertaining affair. Before the scoreless match with Chelsea, Liverpool allowed 4 goals in their most recent match. However, they also scored 7 goals in their most recent match as a host! Arsenal is a scoring machine right now and their last 7 matches across all competitions have averaged 4 goals apiece and there is certainly nothing average about that! 10* OVER 2.5 in Liverpool |
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04-09-23 | Crystal Palace v. Leeds United OVER 2.5 | Top | 5-1 | Win | 130 | 4 h 28 m | Show |
Rotation #200181: English Premier League Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 +120 in Leeds United vs Crystal Palace @ 9 AM ET - With Hodgson replacing Viera as manager at Crystal Palace they were relentless on the offensive last week. Look for continued attacking here as they face a Leeds United backline that tends to be leaky. However, Palace has been struggling on the road and Leeds has a knack for scoring well again recently. Even though Palace will be without Zaha, I expect them to continue what they started last week under Hodgson - a very aggressive effort in the offensive zone. The last 4 Leeds matches have totaled an average of 4.5 goals and there is certainly nothing average about that. Crystal Palace won the first meeting this season 2-1 and also is off a 2-1 win last week that, based on shots on goal, could have seen even a lot more scoring. Palace did concede 4 goals in most recent road match and I am expecting a 2-2 type battle given all these numbers and the new attacking style for Palace because they are now have Hodgson patrolling the sideline. 10* OVER 2.5 +120 |
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04-09-23 | Arges v. Botosani OVER 2 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -125 | 5 h 52 m | Show |
Rotation #206849: Romania Liga 1 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 2 -125 in FC Botosani vs FC Arges @ 8:30 AM ET - Someone knows something here. The total here is a 2 with heavy juice on the over. In fact some books have moved to a 2 and 1/4 on this total. But this does not make sense when you consider that FC Arges has not scored a goal in 5 straight matches! However, do note that FC Arges has conceded 1.6 goals per match last 7 matches. Also, FC Botosani has conceded 1.4 goals in last 8 matches but has also scored 1.6 goals per match in last 8 home matches. FC Botosani has scored at least 1 goal each of their last 8 matches as a host. FC Botosani is favored with good reason but you can also see why I am expecting FC Arges to surprise and get on the board here. That said, looking for a 2-1 final and if it would happen to end in a 1-1 draw we at least get a push here but I am looking for 3 or more goals. 10* OVER 2 -125 in FC Botosani |
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04-08-23 | Rangers v. Blue Jackets OVER 6.5 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -116 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
NHL Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 6.5 in Columbus Blue Jackets vs New York Rangers @ 7:07 ET - The Blue Jackets are so bad you might be concerned about them scoring enough for us here. However, Columbus on home ice is generally better in the goal-scoring department then when on the road. Also, the Blue Jackets just can not stop anyone. Rangers should score a pile of goals here and this one gets ugly! Columbus has allowed 5 goals per game last 20 games! That is an insanely ugly goals against average. In terms of goal-scoring though, the Blue Jackets have averaged scoring 3 goals per game last 6 on home ice. As for the Rangers, they have allowed at least 2 goals in 7 straight games. 5-2 or 5-3 sounds about right here. Jackets have allowed more than 5 goals too on many occasions recently and Rangers likely to be relentless on the attack after a tight OT loss in most recent game. 10* OVER 6.5 in Columbus |