Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-21-22 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -140 | 15 h 4 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 -140 vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 10:10 ET - Action on pitchers. The Dodgers entered yesterday with 89 wins by 2 or more runs this season. That was out of 146 games on the season. Many teams will not even win 89 games out of 162 this season and we are talking about 89 wins by a multiple run margin! Simply put, LA has been absolutely dominant this season yet yesterday they played a double header and did not win either game by a multi-run margin. After winning game one by a single run, Los Angeles lost game two outright. That said, regardless of pitchers here, the odds favor a big Dodgers bounce back here and I like this run line play as a great bounce back spot for LA. But now I will touch on the pitchers and will mention that Bumgarner has struggled badly for many weeks now and almost always allows 4 or more earned runs in recent starts. That spells trouble against May and the Dodgers. May has been mostly solid in his outings since coming back from injury and the Dbacks hitters have very little familiarity with him so that is another edge for him here. Look for the home team to roll big in this one! 10* Los Angeles Dodgers Run Line -1.5 -140 |
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09-21-22 | Twins v. Royals OVER 8 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 8 in Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins @ 8:10 ET - Action on pitchers. Love the fact this total dropped to 8 runs even though both teams reached double digits in hits yesterday. Look for both lineups to stay hot here in another meaningless late season season. Indeed I love overs in games like this in the final couple weeks of season because the batters are so relaxed at the plate. It does matter too that both teams are out of contention not just one because if one team is in contention the other will try to play the role of spoiler too and then there is some extra pressure on each team really. In games like this one there is, as noted above, no pressure and the team should swing the bats well again. I really don't care who the pitchers are but will mention that Ober has not pitched a whole lot this season but when he did he faced the Royals a couple times and they got to him in the 2nd outing. Same thing last season too and so Kansas City has a lot of experience against him and it will continue to pay off. The KC starter here is expected to be Lynch and he has struggled badly over his last 5 starts and is showing no signs of turning things around. Look for the Minnesota sticks to take advantage. 10* OVER 8 in Kansas City |
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09-20-22 | Cardinals v. Padres OVER 7.5 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 7 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 7.5 in San Diego Padres vs St Louis Cardinals @ 9:40 ET - Action on pitchers. The Cardinals were 36-13 last 49 games before a shutout loss Sunday. St Louis has been hot for a very long time and scoring an average of 5.3 runs per game last 50 games. Just feel we have good value with the low total here. Yes it is a night game in San Diego but note that the Padres have won 13 of 21 games and have averaged scoring 6 runs per game in the 13 victories and have allowed a ridiculous average of 9 runs per game in those 8 defeats. Could this be another high-scoring game? Regardless of starting pitchers (my play is action as always) I do feel we are looking at big runs here. Clevinger the expected starter for SDG and has been getting crushed with a 10.13 ERA this month plus in his last 5 starts he has allowed at least one homer in each and is giving up average of nearly 2 homers per start during this stretch! As for the Cards Wainwright, the long-term story on him has been that of success at home but a general tendency to struggle at times on the road. Wainwright has a 2.61 ERA in STL this season but a 4.31 ERA on the road. More of the same here as Padres high-scoring trending in ballgames continues here. 10* OVER 7.5 in San Diego |
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09-20-22 | Nationals v. Braves OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 34 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* OVER 8.5 in Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals @ 7:20 ET - Action on pitchers. You can tell by the line on this one that there decent odds that Braves win this game by at least a 3 run margin. That means if Nationals get to at least 3 runs you are likely looking at a 6-3 game here and a winning ticket. Note that Washington had scored at least 3 runs in 18 of last 21 games before being held under that in each of the defeats in their current 2-game losing streak. Overall, the Nats averaged 4.6 runs per game in those 21 games. This team can hit a little and has the type of decent sticks too that can give Morton some trouble. Charlie Morton is the expected starter for the Braves and he has actually allowed 4 earned runs in each of his last two starts and 3 of his last 4 overall! The Washington starter here is expected to be Patrick Corbin and he is 6-18 with a 6.11 ERA this season. He occasionally comes up with a strong start at home but rarely ever on the road! In fact, Corbin is 2-11 with a 7.83 ERA on the road and opponents are hitting .363 against him in his outings away from home. No matter the pitchers, note that the Braves are 13-4 last 17 games and have scored an average of 6 runs per game in their last 9 wins. Look for the home team to roll in this one on a hot night in Georgia and the weather also helps the bats in this one as both teams crush the ball and it carries well. 10* OVER 8.5 in Atlanta |
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09-19-22 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 27 m | Show |
MLB Monday 10* OVER 7.5 in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 10:10 ET - Action on pitchers. Part of the reason for action on pitchers here is Arizona has some uncertainty about who they will start here. But what we do know is that it won't be Zac Gallen or Ryne Nelson because those guys just pitched. That said, the Diamondbacks other starting options are not impressive other than Merrill Kelly but if he pitches here, note that he is having a phenomenal season EXCEPT for when facing the Dodgers. They have had his number this season. So the point is no matter who pitches here for either team I like the over. I know that Clayton Kershaw is the expected starter for the Dodgers and he just had success against the Diamondbacks last week when he faced them. However, he did not record a lot of strikeouts in that one and they seemed to get a little better wood on him as the game went on. I am expecting success from both clubs at the plate tonight as the Diamonbacks are back on the road where they have gone 8-5 last 13 and scored an average of nearly 6 runs per game during that stretch. As for Dodgers they have won 11 of 14 games and scored an average of 6.5 runs per game during yet another hot streak for this red hot LA team. 10* OVER 7.5 in Los Angeles Dodgers |
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09-19-22 | Giants v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 10-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 11.5 in Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants @ 8:40 ET - Action on pitchers. Very warm weather in Denver by September standards. The ball is going to be carrying well here no matter who is on the mound and should be plenty of relaxed hitters at the plate. Rockies love hitting at home and the playoff pressure is off for the Giants as they have faded out of the playoff picture. That means hitters should have huge games in this one. So I will quickly touch on the pitchers but, again, my play is action on pitcher. Jakob Junis is 0-5 with a 5.29 ERA since the All Star break. Chad Kuhl is 0-4 with an 8.90 ERA since the All Star break! Those are the expected starters and both are having a rough time in recent months. As for Rockies games and how they have been trending at home, note that their last 17 games at Coors Field have averaged 13.4 runs per game! Yes the Giants have struggled recently at the plate but their 6 games at Coors Field this season have seen the teams combined to average 12 runs per game and they even had some big games at home against Rockies too. San Francisco will get their bats going here but they will need all the runs they can get because hosts should have huge game too given all of the above. 10* OVER 11.5 in Colorado |
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09-18-22 | Bears v. Packers OVER 41.5 | Top | 10-27 | Loss | -107 | 16 h 32 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 41.5 in Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears @ 8:20 ET - Love taking an over when it has dropped like this one. Yes, the Bears are off an ugly 19-10 win last week but it was played in bad weather. QB Fields will be better this week as excellent weather in the forecast for Green Bay in this one. The trouble for Fields and company in this one is on the other side of the ball. Chicago is facing a much tougher test this week as now they face Aaron Rodgers and an angry Packers offense after they were held to just 7 points by the Vikings last week. At home and off a loss, Green Bay is known for bouncing back and they are, of course, double digit favorites here for a reason. I generally am not comfortable laying double digits in NFL games but this is particularly true in a divisional game where I expect the underdog to have some success moving the ball. Keep in mind Fields has added a new dimension to the Bears attack on offense plus the Packers did allow nearly 400 yards of offense this week. I would not be surprised to see Green Bay win big here but I think they surrender some points along the way as well and look for a 30-20 type game in this one. Last year's meeting here at Lambeau totaled 75 points and I'll gladly take 2/3 of that for the win here with my numbers forecasting this one to land around 50! Fields had about 300 yards of offense in that one through the air and on the ground so that helps the confidence of the young QB for this one. Plus coming off the win, even though ugly, last week also helps Fields. 10* OVER 41.5 in Green Bay |
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09-18-22 | Texans v. Broncos OVER 45 | Top | 9-16 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* OVER 45 or 45.5 in Denver Broncos vs Houston Texans @ 4:25 ET - This total has risen higher but it is fully justified in doing so. This is one of those rare occurrences where I actually I am on the move rather than fading it. But the reason is that I had my eyes on this for a potential play ever since Texans allowed over 500 yards to Colts last week but miraculously only gave up 20 points in the eventual OT tie. Couple that with the fact Broncos lost at Seattle and scored only 16 points despite piling up 433 yards of offense and you have a great set up for Denver to score a ton of points here. However, I do not like laying big points in spread sports so my play here is the over rather than the Broncos. I do expect Denver to be relentless and never take their foot off the gas in this one because they are angry about how the Monday night game ended in Seattle. However, Denver will give up some points here too. For one thing the defense gave a big effort against the Seahawks and now play this one on a short week. Also, Mills was decent at QB for Houston versus the Colts last week. If they get 20 again but lose this by double digits like I fully expect they will, then this one gets well into the 50s. Expecting huge game from Russell Wilson and company after last week's frustrating final. The other thing I like here, and the reason I wait longer to release my plays, is that the weather checks out perfectly in Denver for this one. That said, and with both these kickers solid at distance, we could get some long field goals to help our cause in this one too. What happens when a guy misses a long one too? Short field the other way. Conditions and situation just perfect for plenty of points here and of course I am expecting plenty of touchdowns here but just mentioning the field goal game helps us too and I do not expect many punts in this one. 10* OVER 45 or 45.5 in Denver |
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09-18-22 | Steaua Bucharesti +0.25 v. CS U Craiova | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -113 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
Romania Liga 1 Sunday 10* Top Play FCSB Goal Line Pick +130 @ Universitatea Craiova @ 2:30 ET - Utilizing the goal line here means that even if this match ends in a draw we still do not lose the pick. That is a nice added value to have here because FCSB is much better than people realize even this season. The problem is they continue to be "kings of the draw" as they have finished equal with their opponent in 5 matches already this season. Even though FCSB is down low in the standings, this is a club that has only 2 losses so far on the campaign. Out of the 16-club league, FCSB is one of only 3 clubs with 2 or less losses on the season. That said, a lot of value here in grabbing the goal line and fading a Universitatea Craiova that has won just 4 of 9 matches. That is a respectable win rate for sure but still the odds, as you can see, still slightly favor the hosts not winning this match. Tipping the odds even more in a our favor though is the fact that FCSB got ripped off last week and gave up a late tying goal on a penalty shot in the waning minutes of extra time. It was a sickening draw for FCSB against Voluntari and I feel they will be relentless on the road in this match as a result. I do expect a win here but hard to trust FCSB to claim victory considering how many draws they have had this season. That said, the value is there with the goal line giving us some extra insurance in the event of a draw. Great spot for the visitors though. No doubt about that and they catch Universitatea Craiova off 2 shutout losses in last 3 matches! 10* FCSB Goal Line Pick +130 |
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09-18-22 | Royals v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-13 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals @ 1:35 ET - This is the biggest total on the board Sunday in MLB with a 9.5 across the board. I am not questioning the big number in the least. This is a superb value spot because double digits fully expected here. The Royals just exploded for 9 runs on 15 hits yesterday. Also, the Red Sox are sure to respond after a rare shutout loss at Fenway Park. With Kris Bubic on the mound I fully expect the big response here. The KC lefty having a very rough season and it is not getting any better. Since the start of August he is 0-6 and opponents are hitting about .350 against him. As for Red Sox starter Nick Pivetta, he struggled against the Royals at Kaufmann Stadium earlier this season and now has to face them at Fenway Park where he has a 4.78 ERA and opponents are hitting .274 against him. Last season he had a 5.40 ERA at home too so this is no fluke and he has allowed 30 homers in last 30 starts here! No matter the starting pitchers here (as usual my play is action), I like the over here. Boston had won 8 of 14 games prior to yesterday's shutout and they scored an average of 7 runs in those victories. In their last 10 losses they have allowed an average of 6.3 runs. The Royals had been slumping lately but yesterday's game will get them rolling again and their 6 games against the Red Sox this season have averaged 10 runs per game. This one gets to double digits too! 10* OVER 9.5 in Boston |
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09-18-22 | Colts -2.5 v. Jaguars | Top | 0-24 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Indianapolis Colts -2.5 or -3 @ Jacksonville Jaguars @ 1 ET - Line value because the Colts are on the road. Line value because everyone saw Colts end up in an overtime tie at Houston last week. Line value because many may not have realized Indianapolis won the yardage battle 517 to 299 over the Texans last week. Line value because many may have forgotten (but Colts surely have not) that it was these Jaguars that cost Indy a playoff berth last season. Line value because many may have forgotten (but we have not) that Jacksonville, after last week's loss, is now on a long-term 4-30 SU run. Going further back it is a 15-51 SU run for the Jags. It has been a long time since the Jaguars have put a winning team on the field as their last successful season was 2017. Conversely, this Colts team is a winner and they prove it on Sunday and get payback for last year's loss. Very comfortable laying the short number here. Look for QB Matt Ryan to cut down on the fumbles here and for Indy to, overall, have a very complete game in this one which will lead to a dominating road win. 10* INDIANAPOLIS -2.5 or -3 |
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09-18-22 | Chindia Targoviste v. Universitatea Cluj OVER 2 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
Romania Liga 1 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 2 in Universitatea Cluj vs Chindia Targoviste @ 11:30 AM ET - Getting a total of 2 goals with the over in this one is a great value as Chindia Targoviste is scoring an average of 1 goal per match but allowing an average of 2 goals per match this season. Universitatea Cluj is allowing an average of 1 goal per match this season but is favored here for a reason. In other words, this match is set up perfectly for a 2-1 final in favor of the hosts. Not matter the exact final, based on statistical value and the fact that Chindia Targoviste has had only 1 match out of 9 this season NOT reach at least 2 goals, there is no hesitation in going top play on this one. 10* OVER 2 in Universitatea Cluj |
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09-18-22 | West Ham United v. Everton OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
EPL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 in Everton vs West Ham United @ 9:15 AM ET - Recent series is history of unders as 3 of last 4 meetings have finished as 1-0 matches. Also, Everton has seen each of last 5 matches total 2 or less goals. However, all that said, I really like the over in this one. The goalie match-up should help us here as it is expected to be Begovic vs Fabianski and this is a first plus in this situation. I also like the fact that West Ham got their goal-scoring going again as they erupted in B2B wins in UEFA Europa Conference League action with netting 3 times in each victory. West Ham has now scored at least 1 goal in each of last 5 matches across all competitions. Also, the visitors enter this one having allowed 1.5 goals per match last 4 and this is also across all competitions. This line is saying it is roughly a toss up and I know that Everton is tired of all the draws (4 in 6 matches) and will push hard for the full 3 points at home in this one. In going hard for the 3 points, feel strongly we will see at least 3 goals here as well in what will likely be a 2-1 final. 10* OVER 2.5 in Everton |
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09-18-22 | Arsenal v. Brentford +373 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 14 m | Show |
EPL Sunday 10* Top Play Brentford Bees Money Line +373 vs Arsenal @ 7 AM ET - Great line value with the home dog Bees here. Arsenal's most recent EPL match was a 3-1 loss to Manchester City. Let us not forget that Brentford beat Manchester United here at home 4-0 earlier this season. This Bees club is tough and especially at home where they have a 10-3 goal differential after knocking off Leeds 5-2 in most recent match here. Arsenal is a high-quality club and playing well but I feel the loss to City could be just enough of a mental factor to shake the confidence a bit and this is a tough road match for Arsenal. The visitors played some newly promoted clubs earlier this season and some other clubs that are down in the table right now. The point is that when Arsenal had to step and face City they got hammered 3-1. I feel that confidence of the hosts right now is a key and they already beat Manchester United early this season and they dominated here in that 4-0 victory. This is just too much home dog value to pass up on. I sense an upset here as Arsenal also saw Tottenham and Manchester City move past them in the table with easy victories yesterday so this has put even more pressure on the visitors here. 10* BRENTFORD Money Line +373 |
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09-17-22 | Miami-FL +6 v. Texas A&M | Top | 9-17 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 10 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Miami Hurricanes +6 @ Texas A & M Aggies @ 9 ET - The Aggies were upset 17-14 by Appalachian State last week even though they were at home. The 3-point loss (so tight on the scoreboard) must have been a fluke upset, right? Actually, not at all! The Mountaineers kicked the Aggies ass all over the field. The final stats were insane. App St 315 yards to 186 for Texas A & M. Additionally, the Mountaineers had 22 first downs compared to just 9 for the Aggies. Are you kidding me? This is embarrassing and now the Aggies host a talented Miami team. The Hurricanes got caught looking ahead to this game as last week they were sluggish in the first half versus Southern Miss. However, they took over in the 2nd half and dominated the Golden Eagles for a big win. The Canes have the QB edge in this match-up for sure and I like the defensive line additions Miami made heading into this season. If the Aggies can't control the line of scrimmage on offense, they will sputter on that side of that ball. They are not getting good QB play and will not be able to establish the run game. All that said, really feel that A & M is going to have a helluva time trying to just win this game let alone win it by at least a TD. Outright upset would not surprise me for sure and no hesitation in grabbing the 6 points for this one as added insurance. 10* MIAMI +6 |
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09-17-22 | Phillies -104 v. Braves | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
MLB Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -105 @ Atlanta Braves @ 7:20 ET - When I first saw this match-up and went to look at the lines I was surprised what I found. I say that because I expected to be looking at an underdog price with the Phillies here. However, the line is instead in the pick'em range. But that does not keep me away. No, not at all. In fact, it actually has the opposite effect. It pulls me in. The reason is because the odds makers are smart and they are seeing this one in a similar fashion to how I see it. Even though Philly is looking up in the standings at Atlanta and even though the Braves are at home here, this is a great bounce back spot for the road team. I am going with action on pitchers, as per usual, but will mention that the expected pitchers are Aaron Nola versus Jake Odorizzi. Note that Nola has a fantastic 2.85 ERA on the road this season. As for Odorizzi, he got hit at a nearly .300 clip last month and began this month with a very rough start. The Phillies are 10-6 last 16 times they are off a loss in which they allowed 3 or more runs. Atlanta had lost 4 of last 5 before yesterday's win. 10* PHILADLEPHIA -105 |
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09-17-22 | Winnipeg v. Hamilton +7.5 | Top | 31-48 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
CFL Saturday 10* Top Play Hamilton Tiger-Cats +7.5 vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 4 ET - The Blue Bombers have the best record in the CFL but the Tiger-Cats are getting healthier and coming off a bye week. This sets up well for home underdog to give the highly touted visitor all they can handle in this one. Perhaps Winnipeg gets caught looking ahead to their upcoming bye week or still relishing their home blowout win over Saskatchewan last week. Either way, these Ti-Cats are much better than their record shows. I know they have a bad record but they entered this season 23-9 the past two seasons and they are not that bad of a football team. They will be excited here about exacting revenge too as Winnipeg has won each of the last two Grey Cup titles at the expense of Hamilton. When these teams met earlier this season, the Tiger-Cats lost by a two TD margin and they want payback here at home. They may not get that full revenge, though it would not surprise me, but they should at least get the ATS cover here which, of course, is our concern! 10* HAMILTON +7.5 |
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09-17-22 | Colorado v. Minnesota OVER 47 | Top | 7-49 | Win | 100 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
Saturday CFB 10* OVER 47 in Minnesota Golden Gophers vs Colorado Buffaloes @ 3:30 ET - This Buffaloes team seems even worse now after Air Force lost at Wyoming last night as a 2 TD favorite! Why? Because that is the same Falcons team that just blasted the Buffs last week. I do feel Colorado will score some points here. As bad as they have been offensively, the Buffaloes should at least get some garbage points against Minnesota. The Golden Gophers, justified as a huge favorite in this spot, are going to key our over as they have shown no hesitation in piling on the points in their first two games this season. Minny is averaging scoring 50 points per game thus far and Buffaloes have allowed at least 38 in each of their first two games. That said, we do not need a whole lot from Colorado here to key our win. The Buffaloes will score some as they get redemption for a home shutout at the hands of Gophers here. The fact is though that Minnesota can run all over and steamroll this very bad Buffaloes defense just like AF did last week. The Golden Gophers rank among the nations best for efficiency on offense and also rank among the fastest in terms of plays run on offense per game. That said, we have all the right variables here including a low total to work with. Look for this one to get well into the 50s as Gophers defense, as this game goes on, can't help but look ahead to Michigan State and the beginning of Big Ten slate of games next week. 10* OVER 47 in Minnesota |
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09-17-22 | Leicester v. Tottenham Hotspur OVER 3 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
EPL Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 or 3 in Tottenham vs Leicester @ 12:30 ET - These clubs have a history of plenty of goals being scored when they meet and I expect more of the same here. The last 5 meetings have seen the teams score an average of 3.6 goals. The last 3 meetings have averaged 5 goals. Tottenham is sure to score well in my opinion as they are angry off a loss in Champions League action. Also, the Hotspur are scoring an average of 2 goals per match this season. Leicester is conceding 2.7 goals per match thus far in this campaign. Leicester has averaged scoring 1.8 goals in last 4 meetings between these clubs and I expect them to make it 5 straight meetings with scoring at least 1 goals but I would not be surprised to see an angry host pile on for 2 or 3 goals in this one and that means we should be looking at 3 goals at least but more likely 4 to 5 goals in this one. 10* OVER 2.5 or 3 in Tottenham |
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09-17-22 | Botosani v. Sepsi OVER 2.25 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
Romania Liga 1 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 2 goals in Sepsi vs FC Botosani @ Noon ET - Botosani is off B2B losses each by a 2-1 margin. Sepsi is off a 2-1 win but that was the 4th straight match in which they allowed at least 1 goal. If that pattern continues here that means a 2-1 final is likely. Why? Well Sepsi is a rather heavy favorite here with good reason on the money line. On their home pitch and facing a club that has allowed 4 goals in last two matches, the hosts will take advantage. But I like what I have seen from Botosani lately in terms of creating scoring chances as well and this one should fly over the total. We have to lay some juice to have over 2 goals here but I feel it should prove well worth it with a solid win and the added value of securing a push if this one lands on only 2 though I highly doubt that outcome and fully expect 3 or more goals in this one. 10* OVER 2 in Sepsi |
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09-17-22 | AFC Bournemouth v. Newcastle United OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -125 | 6 h 18 m | Show |
EPL Saturday 10* OVER 2.5 in Newcastle United vs AFC Bournemouth @ 10 AM ET - Newcastle should roll at home here. They are known for playing well at home and are angry for the past two weeks as they have been waiting to take to the pitch after a disallowed goal (that should have counted for sure) cost them a victory. So off a scoreless draw, Newcastle will not hesitate to pour it on here at home against Bournemouth. The key to the over is Bournemouth is playing better since the managerial change. Since the departure of Scott Parker, the visitors have picked up 4 points in the table in 2 matches and are off a big 3-2 win. The problem for Bournemouth is, even though I do expect them to score at least once here, they keep allowing multiple goals in road matches. Look for a 2-1 or 3-1 type match here in my opinion. Either way, that is a winner for us! 10* OVER 2.5 in Newcastle United |
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09-16-22 | Edmonton Elks v. Saskatchewan OVER 50 | Top | 26-24 | Push | 0 | 17 h 23 m | Show |
CFL Friday 10* Top Play OVER 50 in Saskatchewan Roughriders vs Edmonton Elks @ 9:30 ET - Good weather expected in Regina for this one. The Elks offense has been looking better the way Taylor Cornelius has played recently. That means Edmonton should score plenty of points here. The Roughriders and Elks each gave up a bunch of points in their games last week. Yes, the Riders defense can be tougher when at home but, again, really like what I saw from Elks offense last week and that was against a solid Stampeders defense. Yes, the Saskatchewan offense struggled last week but the faced the best team in the league and it was a road game at Winnipeg. Compared to facing the Blue Bombers on the road, Saskatchewan will enjoy a lot more success here hosting an Elks team with horrible defense. On the season, Edmonton has allowed 34 points per game. If the oddsmakers are also correct about the 7 points spread here, that puts this game at 34-27 and totaling 61 points. Given all of the above as well as the situational value here the way Cornelius has been playing, I like the over here. Little side note here that QB Cody Fajardo's wife gave birth to a son on Tuesday. Everyone is doing well and Fajardo was back at practice yesterday and feeling good. He and the Riders offense will be able to exploit a struggling Elks defense Friday. 10* OVER 50 in Saskatchewan |
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09-16-22 | Reds v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
Friday MLB 10* OVER 8 or 8.5 in St Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds @ 8:15 ET - Action on pitchers. We don't even know for sure who the Reds pitcher is going to be and could end up being a bullpen game for Cincinnati. Even with St Louis, even though scheduled starter is Jack Flaherty, that means it might even be a heavy bullpen game for them too. Flaherty has averaged only 3 and 2/3 innings his five starts this season. He has struggled by the way and often had command issues. So this one shapes up to have plenty of runs as Cincinnati should be able to get their sticks going in this one. Yesterday's game was a 3-2 Reds win but victories have been few and far between for Cincy and Cardinals likely to bounce back with a win here. What is the significance of that as it relates to this total? Well, St Louis is 33-13 last 46 games and has scored an average of 7 runs per game their last 25 victories! In other words look for the Cards to score plenty here but I also expect the Reds to have success at the plate too given the overall uncertain pitching situation here with Flaherty struggling and the bullpen likely relied on for too much here. Reds have allowed an average of 6 runs per game in a 6-game losing streak that preceded yesterday's win. This total in the 8 or 8.5 range simply seems too low given all of the above and also very hitter-friendly weather expected at Busch Stadium for this one. 10* OVER 8 or 8.5 in St Louis |
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09-16-22 | Air Force v. Wyoming OVER 47 | Top | 14-17 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 4 m | Show |
CFB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 46.5 or 47 in Wyoming Cowboys vs Air Force Falcons @ 8 ET - Love this spot for plenty of points. It could be a little breezy early in the game but not too bad (maybe 15 mph max) and the winds will be laying down in evening hours so, even with the early start time of 6 PM local time, we'll have great weather here. The Cowboys are off a win over an FCS school, Northern Colorado, but lets talk about what their defense has done against FBS teams! Wyoming is 1-1 so far versus FBS schools but allowed at least 34 points in regulation time of each game (their lone win was in OT). Through the years the Cowboys have had some success against the triple option attack of Air Force but the Falcons have a strong offensive line and I have not been impressed with the Wyoming defense early this season. Also, two weeks ago, Air Force played Northern Iowa and piled up nearly 700 yards of offense but did allow 400 yards to the Panthers. That is an FCS team and if UNI was able to move the ball on the Falcons defense for over 20 first downs two weeks ago you know Wyoming should enjoy success as well. Of course Air Force a big favorite here for a reason! AF allowed 17 points to Northern Iowa two weeks ago but could have allowed a lot more given the yardage stats. I do expect Wyoming to score some points here as Air Force is on the road for the first time this season. However, the Cowboys will not be able to stop the Falcons attack here. The result is a ton of points. We get line value because this series has a recent history of unders and that is keeping the posted total lower than expected as good weather expected here too and that has not always been the case when these teams meet. 10* OVER 46.5 or 47 in Wyoming |
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09-16-22 | Southampton v. Aston Villa OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -116 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
EPL Friday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 in Aston Villa vs Southampton @ 3 ET - Look for at least a 2-1 match here. Southampton has had just 1 draw this season in 6 matches and the same holds true for Aston Villa. That said, can each club score a goal here? I would say emphatically that the answer is yes to that question and with low likelihood of a draw here that means at least a 2-1 final. Aston Villa allowing 1.7 goals per match this season. Southampton allowing 2 goals per match when on the road this season. Southampton off a 1-0 loss to Wolverhampton but prior to that, and dating back to last season, 13 of last 14 Saints matches across all competitions have totaled 3 or more goals. Aston Villa off a hard-fought draw with Manchester City but, prior to that, 6 of last 8 Aston Villa matches across all competitions had totaled 3 or more goals. 10* OVER 2.5 in Aston Villa |
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09-16-22 | Fulham v. Nottingham Forest OVER 2.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
EPL Friday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 in Nottingham Forest vs Fulham @ 3 ET - Nottingham Forest brought in 22 summer transfers. When your roster has that kind of turnover and you are a newly promoted side, you are going to have some trouble in the Premier League! That said, it is no surprise that Nottingham Forest has conceded an average of 2.3 goals per match on the season. Fulham is also conceding at a relatively high rate with 1.5 goals allowed per match. However, the visitors also enter this one scoring at that same rate. Hence my expectation of a high-scoring match here. The hosts will fight hard to get on the board here and are averaging 1 goal scored per match at home. At the same time, they will struggle to stop a Fulham club that has played quite well early this season and that likes to attack as well. In fact, both teams play an attacking style which is conducive to an over. Look for at least 3 goals here as the last 4 matches for Nottingham Forest across all competitions actually have totaled an average of 4 goals. As for Fulham, 5 of their 6 matches in league competition have totaled at least 3 goals and have, in fact, averaged 3.6 goals apiece. More of the same expected here. 10* OVER 2.5 in Nottingham Forest |
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09-16-22 | U Craiova 1948 v. Voluntari OVER 2 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
Romania Liga 1 Friday 10* Top Play OVER 2 in FC Voluntari vs U Craiova 1948 @ 11 *AM* ET - Both clubs were involved in matches last week that certainly could have had a lot more scoring. I do expect FC Voluntari to build off a late penalty-kick game-tying goal that allowed them to draw with FCSB last week. Now they are at home and have some momentum after salvaging that draw. As for U Craiova 1948, they have scored at least 1 goal in all but 1 of their 10 matches thus far on the season. So the visitors get at least 1 and I also do not see FC Voluntari being denied on their home pitch. The hosts have had some recent goal-scoring difficulties but now at home off rallying for the draw versus FCSB, this looks like a great spot for their goal-scoring slump to be broken. I see this match getting to 1-1 and ending at least 2-1. Each club has played 10 matches and FC Voluntari has had only 3 draws and U Craiova 1948 only 2 draws. Look for one of the two clubs to earn the full 3 points in the table in this one as the odds favor that and I expect at least a 2-1 final as a result. 10* OVER 2 in FC Voluntari |
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09-15-22 | Padres v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres @ 9:40 ET - Action on pitchers. The Padres expected to start Sean Manea and the Diamondbacks expected to start Drey Jameson. Note that Manea is 2-4 with an 8.15 ERA since the All Star break. The San Diego lefty is also 2-5 with a 6.27 ERA on the road this season. As for Arizona's Jameson, he is 5-12 with a 6.95 ERA this season and that is not even at the MLB level. In fact, this is his MLB debut and those stats are at the AAA level. Look for to get pummeled here. Regardless of the pitchers that start, again my play is action, note that Padres have scored an average of 5.3 runs per game in going 8-4 last 12 road games. The Dbacks are riding the momentum of a walk-off 3-run homer for the win last night over the Dodgers. Yes a couple of tough shutouts were handed to them by LA before that but, prior to the Los Angeles series, some big high-scoring games in Arizona. Heading into that series, the Dbacks were 15-8 last 23 home games and averaged scoring 5.7 runs per game! 9 of last 13 of those games had totaled double digits in runs scored. More of the same expected here on Thursday night. 10* OVER 9 in Arizona |
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09-15-22 | Chargers +4 v. Chiefs | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 16 h 40 m | Show |
NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Chargers +4 or +4.5 @ Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:15 ET - I am much more impressed with the Chargers win over a solid Raiders team last week then the Chiefs big win over a Cardinals team that is a mess right now. Arizona is without suspended WR D'Andre Hopkins right now and that make them a different team in big way. Also, the Cardinals defense was already a concern coming into this season so the wounded offense was going to have to carry them. The Chiefs showed that is not going to happen but now Kansas City faces a much tougher test here. The Chargers showed last week their defense can step up. Also, LA won here at KC last season so that is a confidence boost as well. I don't trust this Chiefs defense. I know the Chargers are without WR Keenan Allen this week but they still have very solid receiving options and I love having the sizable points being offered in this one. Los Angeles has lost the money only 4 times the last 20 times they have been a divisional road dog! Kansas City will be an all-out war here just win this game...let alone win it by 5 or more points! Grab the points in this one! 10* LOS ANGELES CHARGERS +4 or +4.5 |
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09-15-22 | Phillies -130 v. Marlins | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -130 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
MLB Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -130 @ Miami Marlins @ 6:40 ET - Action on pitchers. Sometimes starting pitching gets too much credit from the betting markets and, just like yesterday's match-up between Cabrera and Gibson and Tuesday's with Alcantara and Falter, this is another one of those situations. A very bad Miami team and yet Philly is a very small-priced favorite here because Lopez is on the mound for the Marlins while the Phillies have Syndergaard on the mound. First off, this will be the 2nd time this season that Phillies face Lopez and they catch him now that he is struggling a lot since they saw him early last month. In his last 3 home starts the Miami right-hander has allowed 16 earned runs in 11 and 1/3 innings! As for Syndergaard, he has been solid in his two starts against the Marlins this season. Though he enters this start struggling a bit (again leading to line value here) he should bounce back based on a match-up with the light-hitting Marlins. Remember that in August he went 3-1 and had a great 3-start stretch in there! The Phillies have won 5 straight and 30 of 45 and have a solid lineup. The Marlins entered this series off a RARE and I mean RARE explosion at that plate in second game of double header Monday as they broke out for 10 runs. Prior to this win however Miami had lost 31 of 41 games. These two teams have been going opposite directions since late July and I am happy to lay the very affordable small road favorite price here. 10* PHILADELPHIA -130 |
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09-14-22 | A's v. Rangers OVER 7.5 | Top | 8-7 | Win | 100 | 17 h 42 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 7.5 or 8 in Texas Rangers vs Oakland Athletics @ 8:05 ET - Action on pitchers. This is another case where we are getting value on the line because of market perception being much different from reality of the situation upon closer inspection. In this one, the A's are known as a light hitting team and Dunning has low ERA at home on the season and Sears has low ERA overall on the season for Oakland. That said, this looks like a dead under, right? I don't think so. When I looked into this match-up after seeing the line move from 8.5 down to as low as 7.5, I really liked what I saw here. First off, Sears has been struggling more of late including getting rocked by White Sox in his most recent start. The Athletics lefty has allowed 28 hits in 19 innings spanning his last 4 starts. As for Texas right-hander Dunning, he has allowed 29 hits in just under 20 innings of work spanning his last 4 starts! This included 2 home starts too and overall it was 15 runs (14 earned) in this span of 19 and 2/3 innings. The point is that Dunning has not been dominant of late and neither has Sears yet this game being priced like we are going to see a pitchers duel. I just don't see it even though these are not good hitting teams. The fact is that Oakland has seen 7 straight games and 10 of last 13 total at least 8 runs! In fact, those 13 games have averaged 11.4 runs per game! The Rangers last 20 games have averaged totaling 10.7 runs per game. Also, 10 of last 14 games between these teams have totaled at least 9 runs. I am confident this one will too after each team hit well again in last night's meeting. 10* OVER 7.5 or 8 in Texas |
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09-14-22 | Phillies -125 v. Marlins | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 16 h 3 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -125 @ Miami Marlins @ 6:40 ET - Action on pitchers. Sometimes starting pitching gets too much credit from the betting markets and, just like yesterday's match-up between Alcantara and Falter, this is another one of those situations. A very bad Miami team and yet Philly is a very small-priced favorite here because Cabrera is on the mound for the Marlins while the Phillies have Gibson on the mound. First off, this will be the 2nd time this season that Phillies face Cabrera and they catch him now that he is struggling a little bit since they saw him early last month. In his last two home starts the Miami right-hander has allowed 9 earned runs in 11 and 1/3 innings! As for Gibson, he struggled against the Marlins in his most recent start and September has been a rough two starts for him. I see payback coming for him here against the light-hitting Marlins. Remember that in August he went 3-1 with a 2.30 ERA! The Phillies have won 4 straight and 29 of 44 and have a solid lineup. The Marlins entered this series off a RARE and I mean RARE explosion at that plate in second game of double header Monday as they broke out for 10 runs. Prior to this win however Miami had lost 31 of 41 games. These two teams have been going opposite directions since late July and I am happy to lay the very affordable small road favorite price here. 10* PHILADELPHIA -125 |
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09-14-22 | Braves v. Giants OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 7.5 in San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves @ 3:45 ET - Action on this play. Regardless of the starting pitchers I am going over here but it is because of the expected starting pitching match-up here that we are getting phenomenal line value. To the naked eye, Charlie Morton facing Carlos Rodon looks like a pitchers duel. But look closer and you see something much different. Morton actually has struggled in all 4 of his road starts since the All Star break. He has compiled a 6.85 ERA on the road in the 2nd half of the season! As for Rodon, yes he has great numbers this season but Braves have a great record against left-handed starters this season. Part of the reason is they hit lefties very well with a .269 batting average and .457 slugging percentage. Out of 30 MLB teams, those numbers are good for 2nd in the majors and 3rd in the majors, respectively. I know Rodon can be tough but the Braves are 24-8 last 32 games and have averaged scoring 6 runs per game during this stretch. Giants are not known for high-scoring ways but still had scored an average of 6.5 runs per game in winning 4 straight home games before yesterday's low-scoring loss. Look for runs here from both clubs in this series finale as it surprises under players just looking at the names of starting pitchers. Action on this play as per usual. 10* OVER 7.5 in San Francisco |
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09-13-22 | Royals v. Twins OVER 8 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 18 h 40 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 8 or 8.5 in Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals @ 7:40 ET - Action on pitchers. But will start the analysis there as expected starters are Kris Bubic and Joe Ryan. Note that Bubic is having a very rough season and also got rocked at Minnesota in his most recent start versus Twins. Ryan has much better numbers than Bubic on the season but has allowed 9 earned runs in last 9 innings spanning his last two starts. Also, KC seeing him for 4th time this season and they are hitting him a little harder each and every time. Royals have scored an average of 5 runs per game last 13 games overall and 5 runs per game last 6 road games. Twins, before a 4-1 loss to the Guardians Sunday, had been scoring well in home games and were averaging 6 runs per game in last 8 home games. Lot of value here with a rather low total for this one and I am taking this match-up as my top total for the day and expecting double digits in runs scored. 10* OVER 8 or 8.5 in Minnesota |
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09-13-22 | Phillies +121 v. Marlins | Top | 2-1 | Win | 121 | 18 h 47 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies +121 @ Miami Marlins @ 6:40 ET - Action on pitchers. Sometimes starting pitching gets too much credit from the betting markets and this is one of those situations. A very bad Miami team is a mid-range priced favorite here because Alcantara is on the mound for the Marlins while the Phillies have Falter on the mound. First off, this will be the 6th time this season that Phillies face Alcantara and they are starting to hit him harder. In his last two starts against them the Miami right-hander has allowed 9 runs (7 earned) on 16 hits. As for Falter, he is 4-1 with a 3.38 ERA since the All Star break. The Phillies have won 3 straight and 28 of 43 and have a solid lineup. The Marlins off a RARE and I mean RARE explosion at that plate in most recent game as they broke out for 10 runs. Prior to this win however Miami had lost 31 of 41 games. These two teams have been going opposite directions since late July and I am happy to grab the underdog price here. 10* PHILADELPHIA +121 |
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09-12-22 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-0 | Loss | -120 | 17 h 13 m | Show |
MLB Monday 10* OVER 8.5 or 9 in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 9:40 ET - Action on pitchers. I like the over regardless of starting pitchers but will quickly mention them here. This one jumped off the page at me because Tyler Anderson is 14-3 with a 2.73 ERA this season and Ryne Nelson pitched 7 scoreless innings in his MLB debut yet the opening total on this was a 9. That tells you a lot right there and the fact is there is more than meets the eye at first glance here. First off, Nelson had a 5.43 ERA in AAA ball this season so lets not get carried away after just 1 start. Don't be surprised if he struggles with this potent Dodgers lineup in his 2nd start. He won't be the first rookie pitcher that happened to and won't be the last. A lot of times these guys come up and have a great first start but then struggle in the 2nd. This is what I expect with Nelson here. As for Anderson, he has been a little more hittable of late and this has been particularly true on the road. Other than a strong start at Miami (and the Marlins are so bad at the plate!) Anderson allowed 10 earned runs on 21 hits in 18 innings spanning his last 3 road starts. Now he is at Arizona and the Diamondbacks are 15-8 in 23 home games since the All-Star break and averaged about 6 runs scored per game during this stretch. Overall, the Dbacks have allowed 7 runs per game in their current 1-4 stretch entering this game. The Dodgers are on a 6-2 run entering this game and have scored an average of 7.6 runs per game last 8 games! 10* OVER 8.5 or 9 in Arizona |
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09-12-22 | Broncos -6.5 v. Seahawks | Top | 16-17 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 45 m | Show |
NFL Monday 10* Top Play Denver Broncos -6.5 @ Seattle Seahawks @ 8:15 ET - I have said it before and I will say it again here. Generally speaking, the odds makers are the sharpest people around. The Broncos come into this season projected to reach double digits in wins. The Seahawks win total projection is just 5.5 victories. Seattle's odds to win the Super Bowl indicate you have a better chance of taking your money and buying a lottery ticket. The Broncos odds for winning Super Bowl show only 5 teams with lower odds. Those 5 teams entering the season were Bills, Chiefs, Bucs, Packers and Rams. Those 5 teams went 67-17 last season. Pretty elite company, wouldn't you say? Yes, a lot of coaching changes in Denver and a new QB in Russell Wilson but I would not be surprised to see it all click right out of the gate. Love the Broncos defense and they should enjoy success here against a Seahawks offense led by Geno Smith. There is a reason Smith has not been a regular starter in the NFL in about 8 years! That said, I have the better defense (Seattle has regressed a lot on that side of the ball), better offense (Russell Wilson over Geno Smith takes this to elite level of edges), and the better overall team that comes into this season much more confident than a Seattle team that knows the writing is on the wall for a full-on rebuild this season. Not a big fan of laying points on the road but this is one of those very special situations that has "road rout" written all over it. Wilson will not hold back against his former team here. Broncos should enjoy piling it on here. 10* DENVER -6.5 |
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09-12-22 | Universitatea Cluj v. Mioveni OVER 2 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
Romania Liga 1 Monday 10* Top Play OVER 2 +115 in Universitatea Cluj vs CS Mioveni @ 11 AM ET - These are two of the lowest scoring clubs thus far this season but things are on the cusp of changing and hence we get value here with the plus money available at over 2 goals on this one. CS Mioveni is off their first victory of the season and will bring momentum to this match as a result. As for Universitatea Cluj, they are still in search of their first victory of the season and will give a little extra on the attack in this one as a result. The 1-1 draw that Universitatea Cluj had last week easily should have had a lot more scoring and this is another reason we are getting even more line value here. There were missed opportunities both ways that should have resulted in a match totaling more like 4 goals rather than just 2. We take advantage here because CS Mioveni also scored the prior week as well in a 1-1 draw and their confidence is on the rise while I know the hosts are going to be on the attack here as they see this as a great shot to get that first victory of the season. Look for at least a 2-1 final in this one. 10* OVER 2 +115 in Universitatea Cluj |
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09-11-22 | Bucs v. Cowboys UNDER 50.5 | Top | 19-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 7 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play UNDER 50.5 in Dallas Cowboys vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 8:20 ET - Last year's meeting totaled 60 points but the total on this one has been dropping this week and it is with good reason. Both teams have question marks at WR and offensive line. Yes we all know about Dak Prescott and, of course, Tom Brady. Certainly two very strong QB's matched up in this one. But Cowboys lost two of their top wide receivers from last year. Also, another Dallas receiver is injured and will miss this game so you only have Lamb as the one proven WR target for the Cowboys. That said, you can guess who Tampa Bay's secondary will focus on here! The Bucs offense is not looking like a juggernaut entering this season either and the Cowboys defense is a little better than people realize. On the other side of the field, the Bucs defense should thrive under HC Todd Bowles as he was their defensive coordinator the past 3 seasons and helped develop the unit as it made significant strides. With him now taking over as head coach, TB might be a little more defensive-minded and also more conservative on offense - even with Brady under center. The Cowboys allowed an average of just 19 points their final 7 games of last season including the playoff loss to 49ers. The Bucs won 8 of 9 games including post-season action before losing to the eventual Super Bowl champion Rams. They allowed just 17 points per game in that 8-1 run. With both teams a little better defensively than people realize plus each team having some questions on offense, you can see why I like the under here. 10* UNDER 50.5 in Dallas |
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09-11-22 | Giants v. Titans -5.5 | Top | 21-20 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 11 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Tennessee Titans -5.5 vs New York Giants @ 4:25 ET - Similar to my play on the Bills Thursday, here I am playing on a team that has been so hungry to take the field again after an ultra-disappointing playoff finish. Tennessee earned the #1 seed in the AFC last season yet lost to the Bengals at home in a turnover-filled affair. The Titans have waited a long time to make up for that effort and the Giants will prove to be no match here. New York's Daniel Jones had a solid rookie season but has since had B2B mediocre seasons and will not be able to match Ryan Tannehill for the Titans here. Look at the numbers that Tannehill has produced the last 4 seasons including the last 3 with Tennessee and compare that to what Jones has done the last two seasons. This is a Giants team that has not won more than 6 games in a season since 2016! Yet this line is saying Titans are only a couple points better than New York on a neutral field. I say no way that is the case and I expect Jones' struggles to continue in a tough road environment here and he will be mistake-prone while Tannehill bounces back with a strong effort at home after January's disappointing playoff performance ended the Titans season earlier than expected. I truly like to take points rather than lay points in the NFL generally speaking but this one is just too much of a mismatch as we have the better defense and better overall team and the home field edge. That said, I am looking for a win by at least a full TD here for the Titans. 10* TENNESSEE -5.5 |
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09-11-22 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 10.5 | Top | 12-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 10.5 in Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 3:10 ET - Action on pitchers. Just like the weather today, the bats will again heat up in Denver and that is why I like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers. I had my eyes on yesterday's match-up because it involved couple hurlers likely to struggle but I stayed away from the game as I knew the weather was going to be very chilly and ugly and it was. The game ended just 4-1 with temperatures hovering around just 50 degrees. Today the temp at first pitch should be 70 and by games end it is likely to have hit 80 degrees. Unlike yesterday, bright sunshine and the ball will carry like crazy in the thin air here. Certainly I know Zac Gallen has an incredible scoreless innings streak going. I am well aware as it is actually the 8th longest of all-time. I am here to tell you it will end today and I think Dbacks should have pushed him back to Monday at home, even against the Dodgers, instead of having to pitch in the best hitters park in baseball today. I know one of the games in his scoreless streak was actually here BUT he faced the Rockies twice in early July and they got to him for 7 earned runs in 10 innings of work. They will hit him again today as they build off yesterday's win and Cron's huge homer. As for the Dbacks bats, they will have no problems with Ryan Feltner here. He has struggled overall this season as well as against Arizona and they again get to him here. No matter the pitching match-up, the bats come back to life in the warmer weather today and I will take advantage of this lower total at Coors Field. 10* OVER 10.5 in Colorado |
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09-11-22 | CS U Craiova v. CFR Cluj OVER 2 | Top | 0-2 | Push | 0 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
Romania Liga 1 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 2 in CFR Cluj vs Universitatea Craiova @ 2:30 ET - Universitatea Craiova is off a 4-3 victory over Farul. That was a huge win for them and a big confidence boost. Yes their other recent matches had been lower-scoring but that had a lot to do with facing Hermannstadt and FC Botosani - each of whom had been trending under at the time. That said, I really like the value here with over 2 goals in this one. CFR Cluj is off a 1-1 draw Thursday in UEFA Europa Conference League action and comes into this one hungry to build off a 4-0 win in their most recent Romania Liga 1 action. The last two matches in league action involving CFR Cluj have each totaled at least 4 goals and their matches this season are averaging 3.1 goals apiece. Solid line value here with this total at 2 goals as CFR Cluj has been shutout only once this season but has scored an average of 2 goals in its other 6 matches. Similarly, Universitatea Craiova has been shutout twice this season but is averaging scoring 2 goals in its other 6 matches. Having just played Thursday I might be worried about CFR Cluj here but the fact they are at home and coming off B2B high-scoring matches likely is going to lead to more of the same here and, as hosts, they will dig deep for all the energy they need in what should be another wide-open affair. 10* OVER 2 in CFR Cluj |
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09-11-22 | Nationals v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
MLB Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 -140 vs Washington Nationals @ 1:05 ET - Action on pitchers. This game might start later than expected due to rain in Philly early in the day today but I do expect them to get this one in. Nationals lost again to Phillies yesterday and are now 11-45 in divisional games this season! Also, 71 of Washington's 91 losses by at least 2 runs this season! Phillies the much better team, at home, and have dominated the Nationals this season. This is why I don't care who the pitchers are but I will mention that Sanchez is 2-5 this season plus he has a combined 5.61 ERA his past two seasons. Also, Nola has absolutely been dominant in 3 of his last 4 home starts and that includes one against the Nationals. Long-term he has a phenomenal W-L record in his home starts. The home team rolls here and wins big no matter who is on the mound in this one. Nats, as noted above, have lost incredible 80% of divisional games this season and nearly 80% of their losses by 2 or more runs this season. Another home blowout here. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -140 |
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09-10-22 | Baylor v. BYU -2.5 | Top | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 23 h 41 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play BYU Cougars -2.5 vs Baylor Bears @ 10:15 ET - Both teams played weaker foes last week but, still, you could tell by the lines that the tougher tests wa for BYU on the road at South Florida and yet they completely steamrolled the Bulls including jumping out to a 38-0 lead! Baylor hosted an FCS Albany team so they were not tested at all. The Bears lost nearly half their defensive starters from last season and the Cougars return one of the most experienced teams in the country. Not only that, this game is at home in the thin air of Provo, UT and this is another factor favoring Brigham Young in a big way. The Bears beat the Cougars last season but that game was at Baylor and BYU was banged up on defense entering that one. This most certainly is not the case here and we get the more veteran team in an early-season game at home and laying a short number. Don't let the line fool you. Some may be surprised to see a top ten team getting a field goal playing a team that barely has cracked the top 25. Trust me, is not a mistake. Lay it! This is Cougars first home game of season and they only last ONCE at home the past two seasons combined! As for the Bears, they lost twice on the road last season and lost all 5 of their road games the year before. This is still a major test for them even though they have improved a lot since that 2020 disaster. Still too much to ask for them early in the season in this one and feel strongly that Cougars win this solidly at home. 10* BYU -2.5 |
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09-10-22 | Calgary v. Edmonton Elks OVER 49.5 | Top | 56-28 | Win | 100 | 16 h 50 m | Show |
CFL Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 49.5 in Edmonton Elks vs Calgary Stampeders @ 8 ET - Spectacular weather expected in Edmonton for this one and both teams will be airing it out. I realize last week's game between these teams in Calgary totaled only 44 points. However, turnovers were the story. That kept points off the board and I do no expect a repeat here. As Elks were turning it over on downs, etc. but will be stronger here at home. At the same time, they are not going to be able to shut down this Stampeders offense. The end result is this one flies over the total as Elks so hungry for that first home win of the season but their defense is always a concern. Edmonton scores well here but just can't keep Calgary from doing the same and I expect a high-scoring shootout on a day more like summer than autumn in the province of Alberta this evening. 10* OVER 49.5 in Edmonton |
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09-10-22 | Reds v. Brewers OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds @ 7:15 ET - Action on pitchers. One of the reasons for that is you really can't trust either of these scheduled starters to go very long in this one. Anderson has struggled and hardly pitched. Houser also has disappointed and has hardly pitched in recent weeks. So if those guys go (I really don't care) that should get us rolling here with some early runs. The key factor is the potency with which I expect the teams to hit here. Reds have scored an average of 7 runs in last 10 victories but allowed an average of 6.5 runs last 13 losses. The Brewers are 6-2 last 8 home games and scored an average of 6 runs in the 6 victories. Milwaukee has allowed a ridiculous average of 7 runs in last dozen losses. In other words, no matter the victor here, you can see why I am expecting runs from the Brewers as well as Cincinnati in this one. 10* OVER 8.5 in Milwaukee |
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09-10-22 | Nationals v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
MLB Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 -125 vs Washington Nationals @ 6:05 ET - Action on pitchers. Nationals lost 5 to 3 to Phillies yesterday are now 11-44 in divisional games this season! Also, against lefties, the Nats are 14-36 this season! 70 of Washington's 90 losses by at least 2 runs this season! Phillies the much better team, at home, and have dominated the Nationals this season. This is why I don't care who the pitchers are but I will mention that Fedde is 4-9 with a 6.26 ERA in night games this season. Also, Suarez has an ERA below 2.50 since early July! The home team rolls here and wins big no matter who is on the mound in this one. Nats, as noted above, have lost incredible 80% of divisional games this season and nearly 80% of their losses by 2 or more runs this season. Home blowout here. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -125 |
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09-10-22 | Saskatchewan +7.5 v. Winnipeg | Top | 20-54 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
CFL Saturday 10* Top Play Saskatchewan Roughriders +7.5 @ Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 5 ET - The Riders actually outgained the Bombers by about 100 yards last week! Saskatchewan lost the game by only 2 points and got the cover but one could argue, and correctly by the way, that the Rough Riders should have won the game outright! Not saying they will this week as it will be tougher with this one being at Winnipeg but still do think it is going to be again be tough for the Blue Bombers to cover. This one now is at 7.5 points and it offers huge value to the hungry underdog as Winnipeg continues to have a target on their backs courtesy of their torrid start this season. This is also a rivalry game and just too much value with the points here. 10* SASKATCHEWAN +7.5 |
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09-10-22 | Colorado v. Air Force OVER 49.5 | Top | 10-41 | Win | 100 | 16 h 58 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 49.5 in Air Force Falcons vs Colorado Buffaloes @ 3:30 ET - Love this spot for plenty of points. The Buffaloes just got run all over by TCU in a 38-13 loss. The Buffs just could not stop the Horned Frogs on the ground and now face the triple option attack of Air Force and the Falcons have a strong offensive line. Air Force played Northern Iowa last week and piled up nearly 700 yards of offense but did allow 400 yards to the Panthers! The Buffaloes did move the ball some versus TCU with each of their quarterbacks and if UNI was able to move the ball on the Falcons defense for over 20 first downs you know Colorado should enjoy success as well. Of course Air Force a big favorite here for a reason! AF allowed 17 points to Northern Iowa last week and could have allowed a lot more given the yardage stats but the point is that even just that puts this game at 34-17 given the spread on this one. I am expecting much more than 17 from Colorado here in a bounce back effort for their offense after struggling with TCU. However, the Buffs will not be able to stop the Falcons attack here. The result is a ton of points. 10* OVER 49.5 in Air Force |
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09-10-22 | Petrolul 52 v. Hermannstadt OVER 2 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 104 | 5 h 54 m | Show |
Romania Liga 1 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 2 in Hermannstadt vs Petrolul Ploiesti @ 8 AM ET - Look for plenty of goals here. Hermannstadt is the only team in the league without a loss thus far. Of course Petrolul Ploiesti is well aware of this and wants to be the first to put a blemish on that record. Petrolul Ploiesti is off B2B wins and won the matches by a combined score of 5 to 3. So I am looking for goals here because the hosts are scoring an average of 1.4 goals per match this season and, as noted above, still without a loss. I just don't see a red hot Petrolul Ploiesti club being held off the score sheet here. But at the same time, you know the hosts will battle back on their home pitch. I am looking for a 2-1 final here and at least a 1-1 match so feel we have good value going over the low total here given the situation. 10* OVER 2 in Hermannstadt |
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09-09-22 | White Sox v. A's OVER 7.5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 17 h 56 m | Show |
MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 7.5 in Oakland A's vs Chicago White Sox @ 9:40 ET - Action on pitchers. The A's got rocked yesterday but have been scoring some runs of late. The lost 14-2 yesterday but had averaged 4.5 runs per game in their 8 games before the ugly loss. That said, this total at 7.5 sure seems a little too low. Oakland has seen 6 of their last 9 games total at least 9 runs. In fact, those games have totaled an average of 11 runs per game! The White Sox enter this one having won 7 of last 9 games and their last 10 games have averaged 9.5 runs totaled per game. Looking for at least 8 runs here regardless of the pitchers but I will touch on them here. Kaprielian has given up a lot of hits as only one start in August was solid and the other 5 combined he was hit at over a .300 clip. As for Giolito, he has been getting hit quite hard and remember in late May his ERA was 2.63 and it now about double that on the season! The point is that he has regressed all season and I look for the A's to respond after taking a thrashing yesterday and they will do some damage at the plate here today. White Sox bats stay hot too. 10* OVER 7.5 in Oakland |
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09-09-22 | BC v. Montreal +3.5 | Top | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 19 h 45 m | Show |
CFL Friday 10* Top Play Montreal Alouettes +3.5 vs BC Lions @ 7:30 ET - Love the angles here. BC is just not the same team now without Rourke at QB. He will be out for a bit after surgery on his foot. As for QB O'Connor, he is just not at the same level. So BC went out and got Adams from Montreal and he might play some here immediately against his former team. Guess who knows QB Adams and his tendencies very, very well? The Alouettes of course. That said, this is a tough match-up for the Lions even though they are off a bye week. The QB position is a major question mark for BC while Montreal is very much settled on Harris at QB and he beat out Adams for the top spot with the Als for a reason. The Alouettes had recent key wins over Hamilton and also handed Winnipeg their only loss of the season but then lost last week at home so you know Montreal is going to be ready to roll here. This is a great situational spot for them as Lions make their longest road trip of the season across the country too. Again, I know that BC is off a bye week but this is still not a great spot for them. Also, note that Lions have played only 4 road games so far this season while others have played as many as 7 games. The home dog plus the points gets it done here. 10* MONTREAL +3.5 |
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09-09-22 | Red Sox v. Orioles OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 51 m | Show |
MLB Friday 10* OVER 8.5 in Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:05 ET - Action on pitchers. Great value here with both teams coming off low-scoring losses Wednesday. Now this pitching match-up is conducive to an over but I like both lineups to bounce back regardless of the starting pitchers. I will start there though by mentioning that Voth has a 4.70 ERA and .313 BAA in home games and a 6.70 ERA and a .316 BAA in night games this season. Bello is 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA in night games this season. Bello is getting hit at a .321 clip so far this season. As far as the strength of these two lineups, Red Sox were 5-2 last 7 games and scoring an average of 6 runs per game in that 7-game stretch before a tough 1-0 loss. Boston's last 8 games before the loss Wednesday had averaged 11 runs per game. Baltimore had won 5 of 8 before their 4-1 loss Wednesday. In those 8 games they averaged 4.5 runs scored per game. The Orioles will hit here at home but the Red Sox resume their stronger hitting too. The result is that this one should fly over the rather low total. 10* OVER 8.5 in Baltimore |
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09-09-22 | UTA Arad v. Botosani OVER 2 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
Romania Liga 1 Friday 10* Top Play OVER 2 in FC Botosani vs UTA @ 11:45 AM ET - UTA off a disappointing 1-1 draw at home versus Chindia Targoviste. The visitors will come out being aggressive on the attack here as a result. FC Botosani also off a disappointing 2-1 loss at Petrolul Ploiesti as they did not score until the extra time in that one and so spent much of the match "chasing" to get back in it. The hosts will be more aggressive on their home pitch here as a result and look to jump out and get the early lead rather than vice versa. FC Botosani had begun the season with decent goal-scoring and then hit a rough patch. Don't be surprised if that late goal at Petrolul Ploiesti gets them going in terms of some confidence again in finding the back of the net. As for UTA, 7 of their 9 matches have totaled at least 2 goals and I feel very comfortable with the over 2 here as a result but fully expecting 3 or more given the circumstances. 10* OVER 2 in FC Botosani |
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09-08-22 | Bills -2 v. Rams | Top | 31-10 | Win | 100 | 39 h 17 m | Show |
NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills -2 @ Los Angeles Rams @ 8:20 ET - I feel the Bills are going to be on a mission all season long and it starts tonight in a game they thought they would have in February. Indeed, were it not for a miraculous Chiefs win over the Bills January in a wild one, Buffalo would have met Cincinnati the next week. The way those teams match up, Bills would have prevailed over Bengals - in my opinion - and would have then faced LA in the Super Bowl. So it has been a long wait for the Bills but now they do get their shot at the Rams here in September instead and I fully expect they will make the most of it. Yes, maybe it seems hard to fade the defending champs on their home turf but this Buffalo team is so strong. I also like the fact LA lost some veteran players on defense. The Bills have a very balanced offense. Also, on defense, the Bills were one of the top teams in the league against the pass and Rams rely heavily on the pass on offense. The rushing attack of Los Angeles is not a strength so this match-up favors the Bills too. Great pass protection for Buffalo too so that helps negate a Rams strength of last season - their pass rush. I love this match-up and the hunger of the road team and it is not often you are going to be able to get the Bills at such an affordable price this season. Lay the very small number here and look for the Bills to win by at least a field goal though I truly expect a win by at least a TD here. 10* BUFFALO -2 |
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09-08-22 | Marlins v. Phillies -125 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -125 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
MLB Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -125 vs Miami Marlins @ 6:45 ET - The Marlins have lost 9 straight. The Phillies are 46-27 against teams with a losing record this season. Miami is 24-54 against teams with a winning record this season. As a result, I like this play regardless of the starting pitching match-up and will go action on the pitchers. But now I'll mention them here. Alcantara has had a great season and that is what is helping to keep the money line price so low on the Phillies here. The key though is the Marlins right-hander is starting to fade here at the end of the season. It all started with a recent match-up against the Phillies in which he allowed 4 earned runs. In fact, he has now allowed 4 or more earned runs in each of his last 3 starts! The fact the Marlins are such a poor hitting team and Alcantara has been struggling in recent road outings means superb value here with the hosts. Phillies are expected to start Gibson here and he is 7-3 with a 3.71 ERA in his 15 home games this season. He also went 3-1 with a 2.30 ERA in his August starts. This looks like a mismatch even though the price is low so I am definitely going top play here and, again, my play is action here in terms of the pitchers. Lay the small money line price with the home team. 10* PHILADELPHIA -125 |
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09-08-22 | Nationals v. Cardinals OVER 8 | Top | 11-6 | Win | 103 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 7.5 in St Louis Cardinals vs Washington Nationals @ 1:15 ET - Action on pitchers. Nationals bullpen imploded in last night's 6-5 loss as they gave up 5 runs in bottom of 9th. Now Josiah Gray the expected starter and he has walked 9 while striking out just 5 in his last 10 innings. Gray allowed 6 earned runs in most recent start and that was 2nd time in last 4 road starts that he has been charged with 6 earned runs. Gray also allowed 4 earned runs in 5 innings in his most recent start versus Cardinals and that was at home. Now he faces them at St Louis where there are known to hit better than on the road. The Cards expected starter here is Adam Wainwright. He generally pitches better at home than on the road. So I definitely respect this factor but this is also what is keeping this total too low in my opinion. Keep in mind, regardless of starting pitchers here I like this total. The Nationals bullpen showed what they are capable of last night in the ugly blown game. Also, the Washington lineup has produced 5 or more runs in 7 of last 9 games! That is not bad at all and I feel the Nats will find a way again in this one but they will not be able to slow down the Cardinals! The Cards have won 11 of 15 and scored an average of 7 runs per game in those 11 victories. More of the same here. 10* OVER 7.5 in St Louis |
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09-07-22 | Guardians v. Royals OVER 8 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 51 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 8 in Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians @ 8:10 ET - The Royals off B2B losses but had scored 5.7 runs per game in the 6-6 stretch prior to this series. Kansas City, before the 4-1 home loss yesterday, had seen 10 of last 13 games total at least 8 runs so I feel very comfortable here with this over regardless of the starting pitchers. The Guardians have trended toward lower scoring games for sure but have scored 4 runs per game last 3 and had allowed 5 runs per game last 4 before the 4-1 win yesterday. I look for runs here on a warm evening at Kaufmann Stadium regardless of the pitchers but will touch on them here. Cody Morris struggled in his first start for Cleveland and now makes his first ever road start at the MLB level. The Royals are expected to have Zack Greinke on the mound and though he normally pitches well at home, he has been getting hit harder of late including at home. He had a .333 BAA in the month of August and I expect the Guardians to get to him here. Greinke has struggled a bit in his last five starts. Regardless of starting pitchers here, look for this to fly over the total. 10* OVER 8 in Kansas City |
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09-07-22 | Braves -1.5 v. A's | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play Atlanta Braves -1.5 -145 @ Oakland A's @ 3:37 ET - Action on pitchers. Yesterday the A's scored 9 runs and lost 10-9 to spoil all Braves run line plays. Very rare for Oakland to score so many runs. Don't see that happening again today. Overall, Atlanta just such a much stronger lineup than the Athletics. So no matter who pitches here, the Braves should win big and you consider yesterday an aberration. Will still touch on the expected starters now. Ken Waldichuk struck out 6 in his MLB debut but could not make it out of the 5th inning and was fortunate more damage was not inflicted as he allowed 5 hits and walked 4. That was against the Nationals too! Now he goes from facing one of the league's worst to facing one of the league's best and is just his 2nds MLB appearance! As for Spencer Strider, his stuff has been "off the charts" good! He dominates and piles up the strikeouts and he is now 9-4 this season with opponents hitting just .179 against him. Look for his nasty stuff to handcuff the Athletics in this one. The Braves have won 6 straight and are 34 games over .500 while Oakland has won just 33% of their home games this season! Road team rolls to a rout, regardless of starting pitchers! Braves have scored an average of 6.2 runs last dozen games. A's, prior to yesterday, had averaged scored 2 runs per game in last 13 losses! 10* ATLANTA -1.5 -145 |
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09-07-22 | Brewers v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 11.5 in Colorado Rockies vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 3:10 ET - Action on pitchers. Yesterday's game exploded late and ended up a 10-7 final in extra innings. The late game explosion is nothing new in games at Coors Field and I am expecting another wild game today on an unseasonably warm afternoon in Denver! Lauer has been great at home for the Brewers this season but he has a mediocre 4.03 ERA on the road and a 4.72 ERA in his day game starts this year. Coors Field is not an easy place to pitch and right now it is unseasonably warm in Denver too. So all signs point to the hitters ruling the afternoon here. As for Freeland, he has having a horrible run in home starts. He has allowed 19 earned runs in 20.1 innings over his 4 home starts. Brewers will take advantage and, prior to yesterday's 10-7 loss, were 6-4 last 10 games and they scored at least 6 runs in all 6 wins. Milwaukee has allowed an average of 6.5 runs in last 8 losses. The Rockies have been struggling but a lot of that was on the road. Before being held to 4 runs in Monday's home loss, Colorado had won 6 of 11 home games. The Rockies last 13 home games have averaged 13 runs per game. We get at least a dozen here in my opinion regardless of the starting pitchers. Take action on pitches and watch these lineups be as hot as the Denver weather! 10* OVER 11.5 in Colorado |
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09-06-22 | Brewers v. Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 7-10 | Win | 100 | 18 h 58 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 11 in Colorado Rockies vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 8:40 ET - Action on pitchers. Yesterday's game was 6-3 in top of the 6th but ended up with only 10 runs by the end of the game. That is unusual for a Coors Field game and today will make up for it. Woodruff has been great at home for the Brewers this season but he has a mediocre 4.67 ERA on the road and Coors Field is not an easy place to pitch and right now it is unseasonably warm in Denver too. So all signs point to the hitters ruling the evening here. As for Kuhl, he has having a horrible run. He had an 8.71 ERA in his 5 July starts. He has been a little better in his last 2 starts since returning to the rotation but still struggling overall and his first August start was a disaster and so last 3 starts overall he has allowed 15 earned runs in 14.2 innings. Brewers will take advantage and are 6-4 last 10 games and have scored at least 6 runs in all 6 wins. Milwaukee has allowed an average of 6 runs in last 7 losses. The Rockies have been struggling but a lot of that was on the road. Before being held to 4 runs in yesterday's home loss, Colorado had won 6 of 11 home games. The Rockies last dozen home games have averaged about 13 runs per game. We get at least a dozen here in my opinion regardless of the starting pitchers. Take action on pitches and watch these lineups be as hot as the Denver weather! 10* OVER 11 in Colorado |
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09-06-22 | Blue Jays v. Orioles OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-9 | Win | 100 | 18 h 33 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 7:05 ET - Action on pitchers. Both these teams got their lineups going yesterday and I am looking for more of the same today. The clubs played a double-header yesterday and combined for 22 runs on 43 hits. The Orioles got swept and will be looking for payback here and should have success against White. He is 0-5 with a 5.12 ERA in night action this season. The Blue Jays, and red hot Bichette, should stay hot here against Bradish. The Orioles right-hander is 0-4 with a 6.29 ERA in his 9 home starts this season. Regardless of the starting pitchers, each bullpen got some extra work because of the double header yesterday and I like the way both teams were swinging the bats yesterday. Take advantage of the low total here. Blue Jays appear to have snapped their recent hitting slump and Orioles known for hitting better at home. 10* OVER 8.5 in Baltimore |
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09-06-22 | Marlins v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 21 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 +100 vs Miami Marlins @ 6:45 ET - Action on pitchers. It is raining in Philly Tuesday but the rain during day that is expected is also to subside and become light showers by late afternoon. So the hope is we get baseball on Tuesday at Citizens Bank Park. Aaron Nola is off a rare bad start at Arizona where he got rocked. This followed him allowing 1 earned run or less in 4 of last 5 starts. Nola also has dominated the Marlins this season in a pair of starts against them. Miami starter Jesus Luzardo can be strong at times but this is still a guy who is 9-15 with a 5.32 ERA last two seasons combined. The big key here is Marlins do not hit well and Phillies ready to bounce back big at home after a tough series at San Francisco over the weekend. Philadelphia is 15-6 last 21 home games and 8 of last 9 victories overall by 2 or more runs. The Marlins are mired in an 8-26 slump and 11 of last 16 losses by at least a 2-run margin. Home blowout here. 10* PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES -1.5 +100 |
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09-05-22 | Giants v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 17 m | Show |
MLB Monday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Dodgers Run Line -1.5 +102 vs San Francisco Giants @ 10:10 ET - Giants off a dramatic walk-off win over the Phillies last night and had surprising success in that series after entering it on a rough run of mostly losing for two weeks. The Dodgers won big again yesterday and are simply an incredible machine. Los Angeles has not only won 70% of their games this season but, when they win, it is almost always by a multiple-run margin! 80 of their 92 wins this season by 2 or more runs. Regardless of pitchers here I like the Dodgers at home but I will mention them here. Webb got hammered by the Dodgers last time he faced them and he also has been shaky in 2 of his last 3 starts. Heaney has great numbers for the Dodgers and has been piling up strikeouts including when he faced SF with Webb on the hill 5 weeks ago. Webb allowed 6 earned runs in that one and Heaney allowed just 1 earned run in that one. More of the same here and again I like the Dodgers though regardless of pitchers. Play this one with ACTION. Los Angeles has won 47 of 64 home games this season! San Francisco is 9 games UNDER .500 in road games this season. 10* LOS ANGELES DODGERS Run Line -1.5 +102 |
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09-05-22 | Clemson v. Georgia Tech OVER 50.5 | Top | 41-10 | Win | 100 | 16 h 57 m | Show |
CFB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 50.5 in Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs Clemson Tigers @ 8 ET - This total has dropped down to as low as 50.5 as of early game day morning. I feel strongly that the Tigers are going to explode for big points in this game. At the same time I am not really crazy about laying more than 3 TD's in almost any situation! That said, the safer play is the over in my opinion because I do feel the Yellow Jackets will find a way to break through for some points here. This is a desperate Yellow Jackets team with a chip on its shoulder and this is not the old triple option teams of the past. They will be airing it out a bit here and will be willing to take some risk to try and put points on the board and keep up with powerhouse Clemson. Off a disappointing campaign, by Tigers standards, they can't wait to take the field and prove last season was but an aberration. They will not hesitate in piling it on here and putting up big points. Keep in mind, before last season's grinder of a low-scoring win, Clemson had scored 125 points in wins in 2020 and 2019. Two games...125 points scored...they may not get to a level of averaging a point a minute like those two games work out to but I do expect the Tigers to score big here. Consider the line is in the 23 range so if you think Clemson can get to at least 37 (and honestly I expect much more) and if odds makers are right about the spread of 23 (like they so often are) that puts this game at 37-14 and that would give us an over. But again, how about 44-21, etc? Clemson will pile up points here and Yellow Jackets will do whatever it takes to get some respectable points on the board in this one. The result is a game that should land in at least the 60s at Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta the way I see it. 10* OVER 50.5 in Georgia Tech |
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09-05-22 | Diamondbacks v. Padres OVER 8 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 8 in San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 6:40 ET - Action on pitchers. I know that Snell is a big name pitcher but that is also what is helping to keep this line low. His last two home starts have been a bit shaky, especially his most recent one was bad. The way the Diamondbacks have been hitting of late, I feel strongly they will get to him. Ditto for the Padres getting to Ryne Nelson as well. The right-hander is a rookie making his first start and is not striking out as many batters at the AAA level this season in this minors compared to his earlier seasons. He has been giving up a lot of homers and Padres have some decent long-ball hitters in addition to Machado that can take advantage even though, of course, they have missed Tatis this season. The key is NOT the pitchers in this match-up as my play is action for a reason. The key is that both these teams have been scoring runs quite well and both these teams have been consistently involved in high-scoring games. I am taking advantage of a low total here and it will be a warm late afternoon game in San Diego Monday. The Padres are 6-3 last 9 games and have scored an average of 5.7 runs per game during this stretch. 7 of their last 9 games have totaled at least 8 runs. In fact, NONE of their last TEN games have totaled less than 7 runs and the average score during this stretch has been 11.5 runs! The Diamondbacks have won 9 of 12 games! Arizona has averaged scoring 6.3 runs per game last dozen games. 10 of last 14 Dbacks games have totaled at least 8 runs and those 14 games averaged 11.7 runs per game totaled. This one should reach double digits and I love the value here. 10* OVER 8 in San Diego Padres |
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09-05-22 | Edmonton Elks v. Calgary OVER 49.5 | Top | 18-26 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
CFL Monday 10* Top Play OVER 49.5 in Calgary Stampeders vs Edmonton Elks @ 4:30 ET - This line dropped because the top receiver for Edmonton is out. However, Calgary does allow the most passing yardage of any team in the league. That said, the Elks may still get some yardage through the air. They still have a veteran WR and young dynamic talented WR that they even use out of backfield packages and for trick plays. They find a way to get the ball in his hands and he makes things happen. We get some line value here because the total is being held lower due to the injury situation for Edmonton at WR. I like the fact that some defensive injuries are getting less attention from the markets and note that Elks have been horrible against the run. So the Stampeders will get their run game going plus had a huge game through the air in their most recent game. Once you establish the run the passing game becomes more and more wide open. Hence that is why the Elks are so bad this season. They can't stop teams on the ground and then they get burned through the air. That is why I expect Stamps, coming off a loss, to have a huge game here and put up a ton of a points. But I am not comfortable laying double digits with Calgary as I am a contrarian by nature. I fully expect the Elks to surprise some people by moving the ball better than most expect here. That turns this one into a shootout. 10* OVER 49.5 in Calgary |
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09-05-22 | Farul Constanta v. CS U Craiova OVER 2.25 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
Romania Liga 1 Monday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 +120 in Universitatea Craiova vs Farul @ 2:30 ET - Farul has won 3 straight matches and by a combined score of 8 to 3. The club from Constanta is feeling it right now to say the least. However, this is still a road trip for them and they have conceded a goal in each of last 3 matches. Also, with more and more confidence for Farul, they are apt to taking more risk and getting caught with some leaky defense in their own end. Look for Universitatea Craiova, on their home pitch, to take advantage here. Universitatea Craiova has found the back of the net in 3 of their 4 matches as a host this season. So I do expect Universitatea Craiova will find the back of the net at least once here but note Farul still does not have a loss this season. That puts this match at least 1-1 and then we see at least 1 more goal. Farul just too hot right now and the defense of the hosts can surely be exploited. They have not allowed a lot of goals this season but against quality clubs (and Farul one of highest scoring in league), the hosts have proven more susceptible of course. 10* OVER 2.5 +120 in Universitatea Craiova |
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09-05-22 | Toronto v. Hamilton | Top | 28-8 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
CFL Monday 10* Top Play Hamilton Tiger-Cats Pick -110 vs Toronto Argonauts @ 1 ET - The standings show Toronto 5-5 and Hamilton 3-8 on the season. This is after Argonauts beat the Tiger-Cats 37-20 last week. However, the Ti-Cats are 3-2 this season at home while the Argos are 1-2 on the road this season. Also, in last week's game at Toronto, Hamilton actually won the yardage battle 452 to 301. The reality is the Tiger-Cats dominated statistically but yet lost by 17 points due to turnovers. That sets this one up absolutely beautifully and we get extra line value here too. The Ti-Cats are much better than their current record shows and Toronto is a bit over-rated plus has been helped by playing 70% of its games at home so far this season. 10* HAMILTON -110 |
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09-05-22 | Hermannstadt v. Arges +128 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
Romania Liga 1 Monday 10* Top Play FC Arges Money Line +128 vs Hermannstadt @ 11:45 AM ET - The 3-way line is showing you the most likely outcome here is a home club win despite the fact Hermannstadt has not lost a match out of 7 this season. Indeed the visitors have won 3 and had 4 draws in their 7 matches thus far. As I have said before, the odds makers often the sharpest people in the room! The point is that this match is priced this way for a reason and I do expect Hermannstadt to fall short after hanging on for a tight 1-0 victory last week. FC Arges is angry off a scoreless draw on the road and they will respond well on their home pitch here where they already have 3 victories this season by a combined score of 7 to 2. The hosts get it done here again. 10* FC Arges +128 |
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09-04-22 | Florida State v. LSU -3.5 | Top | 24-23 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
CFB Sunday 10* Top Play LSU Tigers -3.5 vs Florida State Seminoles @ 7:30 ET - The SEC sure does look strong, as per usual. LSU is the only team yet to play and every other team won their games and there was quite a bit of domination thrown around. Now, as for the ACC, Clemson will meet Georgia Tech tomorrow but, other than that Florida State is the only team yet to play. However, 3 teams already lost games (granted a Louisville or Syracuse was inevitable) and the ACC (other than Clemson) just not on the same level overall as SEC teams overall. LSU is going to be much stronger under new head coach Brian Kelly and they are facing a solid ACC team here but still look at some of yesterday's results. NC State barely beat East Carolina, Louisville scored just 7 points, Boston College and Virginia Tech each lost their games. There is still a gap in levels between these two conferences and the Tigers are VERY hungry and rejuvenated with the Kelly regime now here. LSU is off a disappointing campaign so we are getting line value here. I look for the Tigers to be back with early momentum from the coaching change! The Seminoles also disappointed last season and a win over an FCS school in Week 0 might help confidence but this is not Duquesne they are facing this week! Mike Norvell, HC of FSU, has struggled in his tenure here so far. Keep in mind, HC Kelly was 34-6 with Cincinnati and then went 92-39 with Notre Dame. Florida State, ATS, does not have a good track record in recent games with teams from the Power 5 conferences. 10* LSU -3.5 |
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09-04-22 | Winnipeg v. Saskatchewan +3.5 | Top | 20-18 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
CFL Sunday 10* Top Play Saskatchewan Roughriders +3.5 vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 6 ET - Home dog is getting much healthier now and also has the added confidence of a road win at BC last week under their belts. The Roughriders handed the Lions just their 2nd loss of the season and now they can do the same to the Blue Bombers this week. Winnipeg had a target on their backs off their unbeaten start and now they are off an OT loss and a very tight 2-point win the past two weeks! This is going to be another very tough battle for the Bombers because they are on the road and Saskatchewan is not an easy place to play. Also, the Riders confidence is starting to grow as they have won 2 of 3 since a much needed bye week 4 weeks ago. 10* SASKATCHEWAN +3.5 |
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09-04-22 | Astros v. Angels OVER 9 | Top | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 9 or 9.5 in LA Angels vs Houston Astros @ 4:07 ET - Lot of extra bullpen arms used in last night's lengthy extra-inning affair that the Angels eventually won 2-1. We'll see a lot more scoring here. Action on pitchers as I like the fact Angels had been scoring better of late and Astros one of top teams in MLB and NOT facing Ohtani tonight! That said, lets talk about the pitchers first though they are not the most important factor. Davidson expected to start for Angels and he has a 7.16 ERA in his 4 home appearances this season and has had major command issues on the mound no matter where he pitches with far too many walks this year. As for the Astros Urquidy, he has a 4.24 ERA in road starts this season and the Angels seeing him for the 3rd time this season. That could help them have more success this time around and they have had Trout in the lineup lately and Urquidy has allowed 6 homers in his last 4 starts. This one flies over the total. The Angels have won 6 of 8 games and had averaged scoring 5 runs per game before yesterday's tight 2-1 win in 12 innings! Astros had won 8 of 10 games before yesterday's loss and Houston scored an average of 4.5 runs per game in those 8 victories. Houston on an 18-10 run last 28 games and scored 6.5 runs per game in those 18 wins and of course they are a sizable road favorite here for a reason. Look for a lot of runs in this one. 10* OVER 9 or 9.5 in LA Angels |
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09-04-22 | Arsenal v. Manchester United OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
EPL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 in Manchester United vs Arsenal @ 11:30 AM ET - We will see goals here. Arsenal scoring an average of 2.6 goals per match thus far in their 5 matches this season. Each of the last 4 Arsenal matches have totaled at least 3 goals and have averaged 3.8 goals per match. The two meetings between these clubs last season totaled 4 and 5 goals, respectively. Manchester United playing much better after their dreadful start to the season and certainly, on their home pitch here, they are going to be a tough club. However, Arsenal will not allow this match to be a grinder. They are playing too well and too confident to just sit back on their heels here. So Arsenal forces the issue a bit and I look for Manchester United also to have a breakout game offensively and their most recent home match was a 2-1 win over Liverpool. Neither team has had a draw yet this season and Manchester United has scored at least once in 4 of 5 matches. Arsenal has scored at least twice in all 5 matches. In other words, look for at least a 2-1 final here as odds favor each team scoring and odds favor no draw here! There also has been only one draw in the last five meetings between these clubs. 10* OVER 2.5 in Manchester United |
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09-04-22 | Leicester v. Brighton & Hove Albion OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 106 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
EPL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 in Brighton & Hove vs Leicester @ 9 AM ET - The Albion are known for being tough to score on at home but Leicester has made some adjustments on the frontlines and is emphasizing offense in this one. The Foxes will be on the attack. The last 4 meetings between these clubs have averaged 3 goals apiece with 3 of the 4 reaching at least the 3 goal mark. I fully expect this one will as well! Brighton has scored an average of 1.8 goals per match last 4 across all competitions. Leicester, prior to being held without a goal last week, had scored at least once in each of 3 prior matches in league competition and those 3 matches all totaled at least 3 goals and averaged 4 goals. We'll see some goals here. 10* OVER 2.5 in Brighton |
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09-04-22 | Botosani v. Petrolul 52 OVER 2 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 4 h 51 m | Show |
Romania Liga 1 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 2 in Petrolul Ploiesti vs FC Botosani @ 2:30 PM ET - Petrolul Ploiesti going to build off last week's 3-2 thrilling victory. However, FC Botosani comes in fired up after not scoring a goal in B2B weeks. This followed an unplanned bye week and prior to that FC Botosani had scored in all 5 of their first 5 matches and were scoring an average of 1.4 goals per match. In other words, this club can and will score well and will get back on track here as they face a Petrolul Ploiesti club that played a wild one last week on the road and yet still got the win. That is the kind of a set-up that can set up a club for a bit of loosely played defense when they return back home overconfident. Certainly overconfidence can be a problem when you are 4-0-2 last 6 matches like Petrolul Ploiesti. As a result plenty of goals here. 10* OVER 2 in Petrolul Ploiesti |
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09-03-22 | Boise State v. Oregon State OVER 55.5 | Top | 17-34 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 18 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 55.5 in Oregon State Beavers vs Boise State Broncos @ 10:30 ET - First thing I want to talk about here is the Boise State defense because I know it is good but consider they shutout New Mexico last season but the Lobos scored an average of only 8.5 points their final 10 games of the season! They were horrible! Boise State also allowed just 3 points in their win over Utah State but the Aggies outgained the Broncos in that one and piled up 443 yards of offense but were done in by turnovers. That 27-3 win was definitely a bit of a phony final! As for their other 10 games last season, Boise State allowed an average of 22.5 points per game. Keep in mind they were not facing a bunch of top offenses either considering they play in the Mountain West Conference. Now they face a very good Oregon State offense on the road and with great weather expected here. This is going to be a back and forth high-scoring affair. The Beavers are very talented offensively but their defense is not their strength and Boise State has the weapons to exploit. This is particularly true of a weak secondary. The Broncos averaged 29 points per game last season and have Bachmeier back at QB and Holani at RB and are very hungry after a 7-4 season last year is not the level they are use to performing at. The Beavers averaged 36 points per game at home last season and return a ton of talent. The issue is a defense that, not including game against FCS Idaho, allowed about 30 points per game last season. This total, very early, actually opened up in the low 60s and has since fallen down to the mid-50s and even below the key number of 56. QB Nolan is back for the Beavers too and leads a solid offensive attack. 10* OVER 55.5 in Oregon State |
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09-03-22 | Brewers v. Diamondbacks OVER 8 | Top | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 7.5 in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 8:10 ET - Action on pitchers. I like this total no matter who pitches as it is on the low side due in part to the expected pitchers here and the fact Burnes generally is tough on the mound. The Brewers right-hander actually has given up 4 or more earned runs in 2 of last 3 road starts and struggled a bit overall in August with a 4.83 ERA. However, speaking of struggling, Bumgarner is off a winless August in which he went 0-3 with a 9.23 ERA in his 5 starts and opponents hit .373 against him. Brewers lost 2-1 yesterday and were shutout 5-0 the day before. However, prior to this, Milwaukee had won 4 of 5 and scored an average of 6.2 runs per game. The Brewers will get back on track after rare B2B ugly games at the plate. Milwaukee averaging 5.2 runs per game last 5 times they have entered a game off 2 or more consecutive losses. The Diamondbacks are 8-2 last 10 games and in their last dozen games, even with only a 2-1 win yesterday, have averaged scoring 6.3 runs per game. You can see why I like this total with action on the pitchers. Great set up here. 10* OVER 7.5 in Arizona |
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09-03-22 | Manchester City v. Aston Villa OVER 3 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
EPL Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 3 in Aston Villa vs Manchester City @ 12:30 ET - Manchester City has been a scoring machine for a long time now with an incredible 14-match streak of scoring at least 2 goals. However, the scoring has become even more prolific of late because Erling Braut Haaland has been incredible with his goal-scoring prowess in his first season in the EPL. This City team is on a roll and Aston Villa was lucky they did not allow more scoring in the first half of their most recent match. They will not be so fortunate here as Manchester City has been ruthless on the attack. However, I will say this...I do expect Villa to score at least once at home and to put up a fight here on the counter attack. They did score an average of 1.5 goals per match when on their home pitch last season and City is so confident right now they could end up exposed at times on the counter attack. I say that because Manchester City is so confident in pushing the ball up the field because they have been scoring with such proficiency. Don't be surprised if Villa gets at least a goal here but City wins this by a multi-goal margin possibly. So looking at a 3-1 or 3-2 or 4-1 type of match. Lot of value here with this rather low total. 10* OVER 3 in Aston Villa |
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09-03-22 | Chindia Targoviste v. UTA Arad OVER 1.75 | Top | 1-1 | Win | 50 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
Romania Liga 1 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 1.75 or 2 in UTA Arad vs Chindia Targoviste @ Noon ET - Chindia Targoviste is at the bottom of the table but it is not for a lack of scoring goals. They do average 1 goal per match. The problem for Chindia Targoviste is they are allowing 2 goals per match this season. UTA Arad is angry here as they are off a draw against one of the other bad teams (CS Mioveni) in the league and they know they should have got maximum points in the table instead of settling for a 1-1 draw. That said, the play here is the over as UTA Arad will not hold back and will be aggressive on the attack. Also, I like the fact that Chindia Targoviste, though still searching for first victory of season, is known for finding ways to manufacture goals. UTA Arad's matches have averaged 2 goals per match and I am expecting at least 3 here because there is nothing "average" about this match-up in terms of the fact Chindia Targoviste has a tendency toward getting involved in very high-scoring matches. Each of their last 3 totaled at least 3 goals and 2 of them reached the 5 goal mark! 10* OVER 1.75 or 2 in UTA Arad |
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09-03-22 | Crystal Palace v. Newcastle United OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
EPL Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 in Newcastle United vs Crystal Palace @ 10 AM ET - Newcastle angry off the last minute loss to Liverpool last week. They will respond at home where they are known for scoring better and playing stronger. Newcastle however sometimes gets a bit leaky with the defense in front of their own goal. Also, note that Crystal Palace has both conceded and scored in each of last five matches in league action. I am sure that will be the case again here and I also do not expect it to end 1-1 either so good value with the over 2.5 here given the situation. Newcastle going to be very hungry for the full 3 points but Crystal Palace also is angry about a late equalizer that cost them the full 3 points last week. As a result, think both teams will be very aggressive on the attack here and Newcastle has seen only 1/3 of last 21 home matches ended in a draw. Look for a 2-1 match here and if it does end in a draw look for it to be 2-2 rather than 1-1 as the situation here tells me goals will be flowing. 10* OVER 2.5 in Newcastle United |
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09-03-22 | Fulham v. Tottenham Hotspur OVER 3 | Top | 1-2 | Push | 0 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
EPL Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 or 3 in Tottenham vs Fulham @ 10 AM ET - Tottenham is angry off a 1-1 draw in a match they should have been awarded a penalty kick and that, of course, would have given high odds on an eventual 2-1 win. That said they will be pushing hard here but Fulham has scored an average of 2 goals in its last 3 matches in league action. Tottenham has scored an average of 2 goals per match last 5 meetings between these clubs. Fulham has allowed 7 goals in last 4 matches across all competitions. Tottenham scoring an average of 2 goals per match this season. Just see this one getting to at least 2-1 and do not foresee the Hotspur taking their foot off the gas in this one as they had started the season so hot. The hosts want to resume that early season momentum in a big way here. 10* OVER 2.5 or 3 in Tottenham |
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09-02-22 | Phillies -102 v. Giants | Top | 1-13 | Loss | -102 | 17 h 40 m | Show |
MLB Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -102 @ San Francisco Giants @ 10:15 ET - Action on pitchers. The Giants have lost 7 straight and 11 of 13 games. San Francisco has scored just 2.4 runs per game in 13 of last 14 games. Only one big offensive output during this 14-game stretch and you see the poor average they have in the 13 other games. Things are going much differently for Philly. The Phillies bounced back from B2B embarrassing losses by being on the right end of a blowout in an 18-2 win at Arizona Sunday. Unlike San Francisco, the Phillies have been scoring quite well and have won 23 of 34 games. Philadelphia has scored an average of 6.3 runs per game their last dozen games. Also, the Phillies have the pitching edge here. I like them no matter the starting pitchers here but will mention that Gibson is 6-3 in night games. Also, he went 3-1 with a 2.30 ERA in his 5 August starts. As for San Francisco's Cobb, he is 3-5 in night games this season and has been getting hit quite hard his last 4 starts. The Phillies are the hotter team and available at a great price here. 10* PHILADELPHIA -102 |
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09-02-22 | TCU v. Colorado OVER 58 | Top | 38-13 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 17 m | Show |
CFB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 58 in Colorado Buffaloes vs TCU Horned Frogs @ 10 ET - Both teams were weak defensively last season. Making matters worse for the Buffaloes, they lost many of the top tacklers from last year's stop unit. In other words, Colorado's defense likely to continue to struggle and this is particularly true early in the year. TCU returns most of the starters from last seasons team on both sides of the ball. But this may not be good news for a defense that ranked among the worst in the nation statistically. Not only that, they have a new head coach in Sonny Dkyes. He is an offensive minded coach so this helps the offensive production but is unlikely to help the porous Horned Frogs defense! In fact, Dykes comes over from SMU where last season, the Mustangs had some of the best production on offense in the nation but were one of the worst defenses. Considering all of the above and considering that Colorado is at home and should score better as a result and that Texas Christian will be geared up to score anywhere with Dykes on board and 10 starters back on offense, I like the over plenty in this one. Game should have a good pace and also features two very weak defenses and the weather will be great for this one also. 10* OVER 58 in Colorado |
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09-02-22 | Ottawa v. Montreal -4 | Top | 38-24 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 18 m | Show |
CFL Friday 10* Top Play Montreal Alouettes -4 vs Ottawa Redblacks @ 7:30 ET - Montreal has a huge situational edge here as they were off last week. So Alouettes enter off a bye week while Ottawa played in the final game of last week's schedule and it was out west at Edmonton. The Alouettes already defeated the Redblacks this season and that game was at Ottawa. Now they get this rivalry match-up at home and they have the rest edge. Additionally, Redblacks win last week was a bit fortunate as they were outgained by Edmonton in that one but the Elks turned the ball over 5 times - 1 fumble, 1 interception, and 3 times on downs. I like the value here with laying the low number on the home team that should dominate in this one. The Als bye week was preceded by B2B wins and their confidence is growing as they are in the mix for the East Division title for sure. 10* MONTREAL -4 |
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09-02-22 | Rangers v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 15 h 39 m | Show |
MLB Friday 10* OVER 9.5 in Boston Red Sox vs Texas Rangers @ 7:10 ET - Action on pitchers. The Rangers have lost 5 straight and 6 of 8 but continues to score plenty of runs. Texas averaging 6.5 runs scored in those 8 games. 6 of the 8 games totaled at least 13 runs. Look for another wild one here. I know Pivetta has pitched well at times recently for the Red Sox he still has a 4.83 ERA at home and has been hit 44 points higher at Fenway Park than on the road this season. Also, Keuchel has been incredibly bad this season. He is with his 3rd team already this season and got hammered again in most recent start and is 2-8 with a ridiculous 8.87 ERA in his 13 starts this season! Remember last season he got rocked too. Sad to see it ending like this but it sure looks like Keuchel is at the final stages of his career. The Red Sox will certainly show no mercy and tend to hit better at home than on the road. Boston has won 6 of last 7 at Fenway Park and 5 of those 7 games totaled at least 11 runs. In fact, the 5 games averaged 14.6 runs apiece. More of the same expected here. 10* OVER 9.5 in Boston |
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09-02-22 | U Craiova 1948 v. Universitatea Cluj OVER 2 | Top | 1-1 | Push | 0 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
Good value with the over here. U Craiova 1948 off a win by just a 1-0 margin but their first 7 matches this season averaged 2.6 goals totaled per match. As for Universitatea Cluj they are allowing 1.3 goals per match in what has been a disappointing campaign so far. I expect Universitatea Cluj to again struggle here and give up scoring to U Craiova 1948 but also to get on the scoresheet as well on their home pitch. They are fully focused on scoring here because after starting the season with goals in 4 of first 5 they have now been handed a clean sheet by their opponent 3 straight times. Unacceptable and they know it and they are at home here and they focus on the attack. The result should be goals aplenty in this one. 10* OVER 2 in Universitatea Cluj |
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09-02-22 | Mioveni v. Sepsi -1 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -111 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
Sepsi is a heavy favorite here with good reason. Of course we are not going to lay -200 odds on the money line but I do like Sepsi -1 goal here on the goal line in what should be a dominating win. Mioveni winless on the season and has a -9 goal differential which is worst in the league. Sepsi has suffered B2B losses but one was on the road and one was at home against a Rapid team that is tied with Farul for 1st place in the table. Sepsi has a +3 goal differential on the season and their two victories by a combined 5-0 margin. Look for big victory here for the hosts. Sepsi Goal Line -1 -111 |
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09-01-22 | Brewers v. Diamondbacks +1.5 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 42 m | Show |
MLB Thursday 10* Top Play Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5 -135 vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 9:40 ET - The Diamondbacks are off an embarrassing 18-2 loss last night but this followed 5 straight wins and the average score of those wins was 9 to 4. In other words, Arizona has been rolling. I am going with action here because this is an overall a team-based and situational play. Another key to the situation here is Brewers are on the road. Yes, Milwaukee has been winning lately but being at home helped them. The Brewers actually have lost 10 of last 13 road games! I am grabbing the +1.5 here on the run line for added insurance as half of Milwaukee's dozen wins after the All Star break came by just one run. They have been winning bigger of late but again a lot of home games too. On the road here I expect them to struggle and note that Woodruff has an ERA two runs higher on the road compared to at home. As for Kelly, he has allowed a total of only 18 earned runs in his last 11 starts and, keep in mind, he went at least 6 innings in 10 of those 11 outings. Excellent home dog value. 10* ARIZONA +1.5 -135 |
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09-01-22 | Penn State -3.5 v. Purdue | Top | 35-31 | Win | 100 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
Thursday CFB 10* Top Play Penn State Nittany Lions -3.5 @ Purdue Boilermakers @ 8 ET - So the Lions finished 7-6 last season and got hammered in their bowl game loss to the Razorbacks by a two-TD margin. The Boilermakers went 9-4 last year plus beat Tennessee in the Music City Bowl. Purdue also is at home for this game. The Boilers also return more starters than PSU. Also, though Clifford is a very solid veteran QB for the Nittany Lions, Boilermakers QB O'Connell is probably the 2nd best QB in the conference behind Ohio State's Stroud. So all that said you have Penn State FAVORED by 3.5 points here. You think the odds makers do NOT know what they are doing? The Lions are favored here for a reason DESPITE all the above and a big key is because the Boilers offense lost their top two receivers from last season as one of them was ruled ineligible due to academics while the other one, Bell, is now a Cleveland Brown in the NFL! As for Penn State, no such problems. Not only do they bring back RB Lee, they also have WR Washington back plus they brought in a transfer from Western Kentucky (Tinsley) who had phenomenal numbers for the Hilltoppers last season. PSU has the better defense in this match-up and I know there are some questions about the offensive line for the Lions but that is an area they have filled in nicely despite departures from last season. O'Connell the better QB but Clifford is very solid and led PSU to a 5-0 start last year before he got hurt against Iowa. This Lions team is on a mission this year and they play in the tough east and rank behind only Ohio State and Michigan whereas Boilers play in the weaker West and I would rank them about 4th in Big Ten West. Roll with the road favorite here as they win by at least 7 and, more likely, double digits. 10* PENN STATE -3.5 |
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09-01-22 | A's v. Nationals OVER 7.5 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 7.5 in Washington Nationals vs Oakland A's @ 4:05 ET - Action on pitchers. We get line value here because two bad teams are matched up and the A's are so often weak in terms of runs scored. Now we take advantage because Espino is the scheduled starter for the Nationals and he is 0-6 this season. Espino has particularly struggled as a starter and especially at home. In fact, in his last 5 home starts he has allowed at least 3 earned runs all 5 and in 2 of them he allowed 4 earned runs. Espino did not work deep in any of these outings. A's expected starter is Waldichuk and he is a rookie that struggled more when he made the jump from AA to AAA level of minors and now he jumps to the majors. Note that Nationals have scored 4 or more runs in 8 of last 13 home games and scored 5 or more runs in 7 of those 8. Washington is known for scoring better at home than on the road. Oakland had won 3 of 4 road games and scored an average of 6 runs per game prior to yesterday's 5-1 loss. This is why I like the over regardless of starting pitchers here and feel we have excellent line value with the low total here. 10* OVER 7.5 in Washington |
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09-01-22 | Manchester United v. Leicester OVER 2.75 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -114 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
EPL Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 or 2.75 or 3 in Leicester vs Manchester United @ 3 ET - Manchester United is back on track with B2B wins and I expect another strong effort from them here to result in more scoring. However, Leicester is not going to be shutdown on their home pitch. They will get on the scoresheet too and I am looking for nothing less than 2-1 final here and that means value with this current total. Leicester has seen their matches average 4 goals this season and they are hungry for first victory of the season. Leicester has only 1 draw and Manchester United has no draws this season. That means only 1 draw in 8 matches or 12.5% this season involving these clubs. Man U is off 1-0 win at Southampton but the Saints had plenty of chances in that match and it was one that could have played out much differently with both clubs having so many opportunities. Prior to that all 3 of Manchester United's matches totaled at least 3 goals. As for the hosts in today's match-up, all 4 of their matches this season have totaled at least 3 goals. More of the same on tap here. 10* OVER the total in Leicester |
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09-01-22 | CS U Craiova v. Hermannstadt OVER 2 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
Not only did all 3 Romania Liga 1 matches go over the total yesterday, they all totaled at least 4 goals. The weather is already cooling down across the country today and the players will not be tiring out so quickly on the attack. Universitatea Craiova is off a 1-0 win versus Botosani but could have easily scored a lot more. They looked great on the attack and I am certain that will continue here at Hermannstadt. As for the hosts, they continue to be a scrappy club despite battling financial difficulties. Some home cooking will do them some good here and I look for an entertaining affair as a result. Hermannstadt is off a 2-2 draw last week against FCSB and that was on the road. As a host this season they are scoring an average of 2 goals per match. Universitatea Craiova has played only 2 road matches so far this season and they have each totaled at least 2 goals. 10* OVER 2 goals in Hermannstadt |
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09-01-22 | Arges v. Botosani OVER 2 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
Not only did all 3 Romania Liga 1 matches go over the total yesterday, they all totaled at least 4 goals. The weather is already cooling down across the country today and the players will not be tiring out so quickly on the attack. The Botosani defense had a lot of breakdowns last week and face a solid Arges club here. The visitors have played 7 matches this season and NONE have resulted in a draw. I do expect Botosani to score at least a goal at home here but to again be shaky in front of their own net. That said Arges gets on the board too and has not a draw yet this season. In other words, this match should end up at least 2-1. Botosani failed to score last week but that was first time this season. Arges failed to score twice this season but scored an average of 1.8 goals in their other 5 matches. 10* OVER 2 in Botosani |
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08-31-22 | Phillies v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 | Top | 18-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 23 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 9:40 ET - Action on pitchers. These teams involved in high-scoring action thus far and I expect more of the same here regardless of starting pitchers but we'll start there. Falter has decent numbers of late for the Phillies but this is going to be one of the tougher road appearances he has made in awhile. When facing a good team, or a team surging like Dbacks sticks are right now, Falter has struggled on the road this season. As for the Diamondbacks Henry, he has had about as many walks as strikeouts other than one very strong start this season but that one was against Pirates. In other words, his ERA is a little lower than it should be as he has had some good fortune on balls put in play and I feel this is giving us some extra value here as a potent Philadelphia lineup can get to Henry early and often. No matter the pitchers, the Phillies had averaged nearly 6 runs per game last 9 games before the ugly loss last night. As for the Dbacks, they have averaged 7.3 runs per game last 9 games and are feeling extra confident at the plate right now as they are on 5-game winning streak and have reached double digits in runs in 3 of last 4 victories! 10* OVER 9 in Arizona |
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08-31-22 | Yankees v. Angels UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 48 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play UNDER 7.5 in Los Angeles Angels vs New York Yankees @ 9:38 ET - Action on pitchers. Angels Sandoval has been red hot in August and is the type of crafty lefty that can keep the Yankees free-swinging lineup off balance. Yankees Cole having another strong campaign, as is Sandoval, and the Yanks right-hander has been practically unhittable last couple road starts. Regardless of pitchers I like the under here as Angels, not including extra innings, entered this series being held to 3 or less runs scored in 12 of last 16 home games! So far in this series they have managed 4 runs in each of the first two games so they still are not exactly knocking the cover off the ball at home. As for the Yankees, they entered last night's game having been had only 2 big games at the plate last 19 games! In the other 17 games the past 3 weeks the Yankees scored an average of only 2 runs per game! Don't be surprised, given the above, if tonight ends up a 3-2 type game! 10* UNDER 7.5 in Los Angeles Angels |
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08-31-22 | Newcastle United v. Liverpool -1.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
EPL Wednesday 10* Top Play Liverpool Goal Line -1.5 -125 vs Newcastle United @ 3 ET - Liverpool is not going to win 9-0 again but certainly that dominating victory over Bournemouth (which led to coach Scott Parker being relieved of his duties!) has given the Reds a huge boost of confidence after a slow start to the season. I know that Newcastle managed a draw versus Manchester City earlier this month but that was at home and City did outplay them on possession time and scoring chances. Newcastle is known for being tough to face on their home pitch but often struggling as a traveler and I fully expect that pattern to continue here and will lay the goal line with the hosts in this one. Liverpool has outscored opponents 59-10 in last 21 home matches in league competition. That means an average score of approx 3 to 0.5 goal. A 2.5 goal margin and they are favored at 1.5 goals here. Newcastle has been outscored 36 to 19 in last 21 road matches. Keep in mind that is against all competition not just elite competition and they are averaging about a -1 goal differential in road matches since the start of last season. I have no hesitation in expecting the Reds to win this on their home pitch by a multi-goal margin. 10* LIVERPOOL -1.5 |
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08-31-22 | Tottenham Hotspur v. West Ham United OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -116 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
EPL Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 in West Ham United vs Tottenham Hotspur @ 2:45 ET - West Ham finally got a goal and finally got a win in their victory over the weekend. They will now build off that here at home and I expect the added confidence to lead to more of an attack mode here for the hosts. However, they are hosting a dangerous Tottenham squad that can score plenty! Off a 2-0 victory that easily could have been a 3-0 final were it not for a rare failed penalty kick, the visitors are going to have West Ham on their heels at times. Tottenham notched a 3-1 victory when these clubs met in March and Tottenham is averaging 2 goals per match so far this season. I am looking for at least a 2-1 final here as I expect each club to get on the scoresheet in this one and in 8 matches total for these clubs there has been only 1 draw. In my mind, slim odds of a draw here and strong odds we see each club score a goal and that means a 2-1 final - at the least - is likely here the way I see it! 10* OVER 2.5 in West Ham United |
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08-31-22 | Voluntari v. CFR Cluj OVER 2 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
Romania Liga 1 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 2 in CFR Cluj vs FC Voluntari @ 12:15 ET - Voluntari off a scoreless draw but their prior two prior road matches each have been 2-1 losses. We should see 3 goals here! CFR Cluj was best club in the league last season but enters this match off a 3-1 home loss! Now they are home again and angry and favored by 1 goal here for a reason! In other words, look for an aggressive attacking style in this match and the result will be plenty of goals as FC Voluntari becomes forced to try to keep up in this one! 10* OVER 2 in CFR Cluj |
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08-30-22 | Phillies -125 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 3-12 | Loss | -125 | 16 h 13 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -125 @ Arizona Diamondbacks @ 9:40 ET - As you would expect, losing a game in which you score at least 7 runs does not happen very often. Prior to yesterday's 13-7 loss, a game the Phillies actually led 7-0, it had happened to Philadelphia just 3 times this season. Each time they bounced back with a win! Look for them to improve on that mark here and make it 4-0 / 100% YTD when in that situation. I am going action on pitchers here because I love this situation and fully expect a Phillies bounce back here. But I will touch on the expected starting pitchers here. Aaron Nola has been great with a 2.13 ERA on the road this season. Lately his "vintage Nola" breaking stuff has been phenomenal with curveballs looking like they are falling off the edge of a table when they arrive at the plate. Arizona's hitters do not have much familiarity with him and that will make their task even tougher here. The Phillies, on the other hand, pounded Zac Gallen earlier this season and he could not make it out of the 2nd inning. Trust me I know Gallen has been throwing very well and is a quality pitcher but the Phillies have some hitters that have had his number long-term not just this season. The Phillies have 6 hitters that are a combined 9 for 18 with 3 homers and 6 runs batted in versus Gallen. Regardless of the pitchers, note the 100% situation for the Phillies and the fact they are 43-23 against teams with a losing record on the season. Arizona still just 17-37 against teams with a winning record. Diamondbacks just had biggest comeback win in franchise history! Now the Phillies get some payback for that comeback! 10* PHILADELPHIA -125 |