Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-03-22 | Rapid Bucuresti v. Chindia Targoviste OVER 2 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
Romania Liga 1 Monday 10* Top Play OVER 2 in Chindia Targoviste vs Rapid Bucuresti @ 2 ET - Interesting match-up as one of the league's worst hosts one of the league's best. I like the fact that Chindia Targoviste is the only club without a win and Rapid Bucuresti is the only club without a draw this season. Every team has at least 1 defeat after Hermannstadt finally fell yesterday. As for Chindia Targoviste, they have scored at least 1 goal in 3 of their 4 home matches this season. They are so hungry for a win I am confident they will be pushing hard on the attack for a goal here on their home pitch. Now remember what I said above about Rapid Bucuresti not having had a draw. They are not going to want to settle for a 1-1 share of the spoils here. I look for this match to get to a 2-1 final and give us a win. We have some added insurance in that if this game lands on 2 we have a push but definitely expecting a rather entertaining match here as Chindia Targoviste tends to play better at home but Rapid Bucuresti is clearly the better club in this one and will be pushing hard to build off of a 2-1 win last time out. The visitors have won 6 of last 7 matches so they should certainly find the back of the net here against a club that has allowed 18 goals in 11 matches this season! No club has allowed more than these hosts this season! 10* OVER 2 in Chindia Targoviste |
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10-02-22 | Chiefs v. Bucs OVER 45.5 | Top | 41-31 | Win | 100 | 15 h 13 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 45.5 in Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:20 ET - The Chiefs scored just 9 points when Andy Reid and company met Tom Brady and company in Feb of 2021. You can bet that NO ONE in this Chiefs organization has forgotten and KC is fired up for this game. Tampa Bay's defense has been great this season but they have not faced an offense like this just yet. Plus Kansas City is off a loss at Indianapolis last week. Chiefs are in a foul mood and will be raring to go here. Trouble for Chiefs? I do not trust this defense one bit. I just don't. Too many times I have seen them scorched and they are not that good away from home either. The defense that is. The offense is just fine. But when KC defense does not have the home crowd behind them they just don't seem the same. So Tampa Bay has not looked good on offense so far but they have faced a trio of solid defenses. No one can question how good Dallas and Green Bay has looked on that side of the ball and their other opponent was the Saints who have solid defensive stats too. The Chiefs have allowed at least 20 points in all 3 games this season and I know their stats on defense are "okay" but the 3 teams they have faced have a total of 3 wins in 9 games this season. This Bucs team is 2-1 this season and on their home field and ready to attack coming off a 14-12 loss to a tough Green Bay defense last week. I look for this game to prove to be much more wide open than many are expecting here. 10* OVER 45.5 in Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
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10-02-22 | Broncos +3 v. Raiders | Top | 23-32 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Denver Broncos +2.5 or +3 @ Las Vegas Raiders @ 4:25 ET - The betting markets still don't believe in Denver. The Broncos should be 3-0 this season already. They absolutely dominated the Seahawks in Week 1 but were handed a tough loss despite a massive yardage edge. The Raiders, on the other hand, continue to get the respect of the markets despite being 0-3 on the season. They were chasing for the entirety of the game at Tennessee last week as they got down to the Titans and that had to try to battle back but it was too little too late. It takes awhile for a new coach, Josh McDaniels, to get his team all on the same page and Las Vegas is now 0-3 both SU and ATS this season. I know the Broncos have not scored well this season but this offense can still produce and has Russell Wilson at the controls. Their offense is also more well-balanced than a Raiders offense that relies so heavily on the pass. Also, the Broncos are, without question, the much tougher defense. That sets this one up well for an upset victory but I am happy to grab the 2.5 or 3 points being offered in this one as of very early Sunday morning. Another key for me here is that the Broncos have lost 4 straight in this series. They want this game and they have the QB now, in Wilson, to get the job done and lead them to victory on the road here. Raiders have failed to cover 7 of the last 10 times they have been a home favorite. 10* DENVER +2.5 or +3 |
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10-02-22 | Rangers v. Angels OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers @ 4:07 ET - Late season game between two non-contenders and a pair of struggling starters on the mound. I will take the over here regardless of the pitchers. The Angels have won 6 straight games and have scored an average of 5 runs during this stretch. The Rangers have averaged only 4 runs per game last 10 but this is an afternoon game and there will not be any impressive starters on the mound. Those guys have already gone for each team recently so we see guys like Miller and Davidson in this one. The Rangers Miller was 4-7 with a 4.52 ERA in the minors this season so is not a big surprise he has a 6.94 ERA in his 5 MLB appearances so far in his young career. The Angels Davidson is 0-3 with a 9.45 ERA this month and opponents hitting over .300 against him. He is 2-8 with a 5.97 ERA in his young MLB career. Plenty of runs this afternoon in Anaheim. 10* OVER 8.5 in Los Angeles Angels |
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10-02-22 | Phillies -1.5 v. Nationals | Top | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
MLB Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 -135 @ Washington Nationals @ 1:35 ET - Action on pitchers. The expected pitching match-up certainly favors the Phillies in a big way but there is also no getting around the fact that Philly has huge overall team edges in this match-up with Washington. They did drop Game 1 of yesterday's double-header but bounced back with a big win in Game 2. The Nationals are a horrible 17-55 in divisional games this season. The Phillies are 52-28 against teams with a losing record this season. Also, they are 27-17 against left-handed starters and the expected starter here is Corbin for the Nationals. He has had absolutely no success this season against the Phillies and been hit very hard in all 3 outings against them. The Nationals are going to struggle against Phillies expected starter Wheeler. He looks great since returning to the rotation and when he is on like this he is tough to beat. Also he dominated Washington in his only start against them this season. More of the same expected here. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -135 |
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10-02-22 | Aston Villa v. Leeds United +137 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
EPL Sunday 10* Top Play Leeds United Money Line +137 vs Aston Villa @ 11:30 AM ET - Leeds United got embarrassed 5-2 by Brentford when they were last in action. Now they are on their home pitch and have had plenty of time to recover from that demoralizing result both mentally and physically. Look for Leeds to come out hungry and refreshed here and they are tough on their home pitch where they are undefeated on the season and have outscored opponents 6 to 2. Note that Aston Villa is 0-3 on the road this season and has been outscored by a 7 to 2 margin as travelers this season. Aston Villa also has injury issues and that, coupled with their struggles away from home, make this is a great spot to back the hosts at a solid home dog money line price. 10* LEEDS UNITED +137 |
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10-02-22 | Manchester United v. Manchester City OVER 3.5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 115 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
EPL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 3.5 +115 in Manchester City vs Manchester United @ 9 AM ET - Manchester United has certainly been playing much better after their horrific start to the season. That said, the visitors should be able to find the back of the net at least once in this one. But Manchester City is a machine right now and particularly at home where they have score a ridiculous average of nearly 5 goals per match. Overall, City has scored at least 3 goals in each of last 7 home victories. Given that, I am looking for a 3-1 type match here as Manchester United will not go down without a fight but they can't stop this City juggernaut led by Erling Braut Haaland who has an amazing 11 goals already in this campaign! 10* OVER 3.5 +115 in Manchester City |
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10-01-22 | Stanford v. Oregon OVER 62.5 | Top | 27-45 | Win | 100 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 62.5 in Oregon Ducks vs Stanford Cardinal @ 11 PM ET - The Ducks got a 44-41 road win last week and now are back home and weather conditions perfect for this one. Unseasonably warm evening in Eugene and a perfect scenario for plenty of points here. The Ducks are a big favorite for a reason and will dictate the tempo and plus the Cardinal don't just always try to ground and pound anymore like the days of old. I don't see the Ducks taking their foot off the gas in this one either no matter the score. That's because last season they were holding on to a late 7 point lead but allowed a late score and then Stanford beat them in overtime by a TD. Ducks seek redemption here and their offense is flying high right now. Oregon has scored 52 points per game the last 3 weeks. The Cardinal just allowed 40 and 41 points in their last two games. Stanford is averaging 30 points per game so the offense has some confidence too. But the defense is likely to be shredded here. Keep in mind though the Ducks are allowing 31 points per game this season and that even includes a game against an FCS school. The Cardinal should hang around enough in this game to force the scoring to keep going. The Ducks will be relentless for the reasons I noted above and that is why this one getting into the 70s would not surprise me in the least. But we should at least eclipse low 60s. 10* OVER 62.5 in Oregon |
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10-01-22 | LSU -8 v. Auburn | Top | 21-17 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play LSU Tigers -8 @ Auburn @ 7 ET - Laying 8 points on the road when in a rivalry game with a history of home team dominance? Must be crazy, right? No, in this case it makes all the sense in the world. LSU has Jayden Daniels at QB and his lower back strain is a minor one and he left last week's game because it was a blowout moreso than it being an injury concern. As for Auburn, the QB situation is much different and is ultra concerning. They ended up being down to their 4th string QB last week and barely got a win versus Missouri last week. Auburn's TJ Finley is listed as doubtful but likely to miss this game and was unable to practice. With Zach Calzada now out for the season, that means Robby Ashford gets the call here. He has 1 TD and 2 INT so far this season and now faces the toughest defense yet. I do not expect this to go well for Auburn given their injury situation at QB and LSU is also 3-1 just like Auburn. But LSU comes in rolling off 3 straight wins and their only loss was by a single point in week 1. Auburn comes in struggling with a blowout loss to Penn State two weeks ago and a nail-biter win last week. LSU has double revenge for home loss last season in this match-up and for ugly loss here at Auburn two years ago. This one is going to go a lot different for sure. Road rout here. 10* LSU -8 |
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10-01-22 | Twins v. Tigers OVER 7.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 7.5 runs in Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins @ 6:10 ET - Action on pitchers. This is a very low total when you consider recent results prior to yesterday's shutout loss for the Tigers. Also, Twins did score 7 runs in that win. Regardless of the starting pitchers I like the over here but I will mention them further below. First off, prior to yesterday's loss, Detroit had won 8 of 9 games and their last 10 games had seen them score an average of 5.2 runs per game. The Twins have won 4 of 6 games and scored an average of 5.5 runs per game during this stretch. Now, about those pitchers. Bundy is worse on the road than at home this season. Also he enters this outing have struggled badly in 3 of last 4 outings and he is not getting many strikeouts. Hutchison is 1-8 with a 5.12 ERA in home games this season and has a 6.20 ERA this month with opponents hitting nearly .300 against him. This one should see plenty of scoring early and often as, regardless of the starting pitchers, these teams have been trending well to see at least 8 runs here. 10* OVER 7.5 in Detroit |
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10-01-22 | Montreal v. Edmonton Elks +3.5 | Top | 25-18 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
CFL Saturday 10* Top Play Edmonton Elks +3.5 vs Montreal Alouettes @ 4 ET - The Elks should win this outright but I am grabbing the value of the 3.5 points here. However, the fact is that Edmonton is hungry for their first home win of the season and this is the perfect spot to get it. The Elks catch Montreal off a big home win over Hamilton. That divisional win could leave them a little flat here plus Edmonton has the rest edge since they are off a bye week. Additionally, Edmonton has been playing better of late. Getting solid QB play from Cornelius and now they get a top WR back from injury this week too. Montreal, on the other hand, will still be without their star RB Stanback here. On defense the Elks also are fired up off a huge performance piling up sacks versus Saskatchewan two weeks ago. Now fresher legs off the bye and note the Als are 2-4 on the road this season while the hosts here have a sweet 3-1 record versus East Division teams this season. Lot to like with the home team in a great spot here. 10* EDMONTON +3.5 |
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10-01-22 | Newcastle United v. Fulham OVER 2.5 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
EPL Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 in Fulham vs Newcastle United @ 10 AM ET - Fulham has seen each of their last 5 matches in league action total at least 3 goals. Normally I like Newcastle United more at home than on the road when it comes to looking for goal-scoring. However, after all the chances they had in their match against Bournemouth when last on the pitch and yet coming away with another draw, I feel the visitors are going to be very aggressive on the attack here. They had 20 shots and 7 on goal versus Bournemouth but had to settle for a 1-1 draw. Their 5th in 7 matches this season. Newcastle United did get some good news on the injury front that should help the attack in this one too as things are looking much better now in that regard. So I am looking for at least a 2-1 final here but with the visitors propensity for draws, 2-2 the more likely final outcome here. 10* OVER 2.5 in Fulham |
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10-01-22 | Everton v. Southampton OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 106 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
EPL Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 in Southampton vs Everton @ 10 AM ET - Southampton has conceded at least 1 goal in all 7 matches this season. The host club has averaged scoring 2 goals per match in the last 4 meetings between these clubs. I am looking for at least a 2-1 final. I know that goal-scoring has not been strong for either of these clubs early this season but sometimes, in a case like this, a break like these clubs just had is the best thing possible. This is the first match for these clubs in two weeks and is going to be played a little more wide open than you might normally expect as a result. This is only the 2nd match for each club in 4 weeks of time so it could be a little sloppy too and this leads to turnovers and creates good scoring chances. The final key is that Jordan Pickford is expected back between the pipes for Everton but he is coming back from a thigh injury. Could this still be bugging him some? I feel Southampton is going to be very aggressive on the attack here as they are at home and off B2B road losses by 1-0 counts. Their last home match was a big 2-1 upset of Chelsea. Everton is off a confidence-boosting victory over West Ham United and they have scored in all of their road matches so far this season. 10* OVER 2.5 in Southampton |
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09-30-22 | Ottawa +7 v. BC | Top | 19-34 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 37 m | Show |
CFL Friday 10* Top Play Ottawa Redblacks +7 @ BC Lions @ 10:30 ET - Surprisingly, the Redblacks are 3-3 SU on the road this season which is nearly as good as the 4-3 home record that BC has. Both teams off bad losses last week but I think we have excellent value here with the big points with Ottawa. The Redblacks had 5 interceptions in last week's ugly home loss to Toronto so they managed to lose by 30 points despite having a yardage edge of 80 in the game! Unheard of variance between the scoreboard and the statsheet. That said, another key is that of course BC has been a different team since their star QB Nathan Rourke got hurt. This week they will be without one of their best wide receivers too as Bryan Burnham is out. He had been strong for the Lions in recent weeks so this certainly will further hurt a passing game that is not the same without Rourke at the controls. BC barely snuck by the Redblacks when these teams met in Ottawa and I am forecasting another tight game here which means the points are ultra-valuable in this one! 10* OTTAWA +7 |
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09-30-22 | Washington -2.5 v. UCLA | Top | 32-40 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 30 m | Show |
CFB Friday 10* Top Play Washington Huskies -2.5 @ UCLA Bruins @ 10:30 ET - I know the Huskies are certainly not known for being Pac-12 road warriors but they are every bit deserving of their #15 ranking on the season. On that note, UCLA is 0-12 SU the last 12 times they have faced a team that is ranked #15 or higher and many of those games were at home just like this one is. Also, the Bruins also lost all 12 of those games by at least 3 points. So, with us laying 2.5 points, this is indeed a 12-0 / 100% SPOT in favor of the Huskies! Look for that streak to reach 13 in a row here. The Bruins did beat a #16 LSU team last year so I do want to note that but this other streak has been triple checked and I like it a lot! UCLA known for struggling to seal the deal in the biggest games. What I really like here is the way former Indiana QB Pennix has thrived in Washington. This is his 5th year so he is loaded with experience. Thompson-Robinson certainly commands respect for the Bruins as well but I feel we have the better overall team in this match-up. The Huskies have faced tougher teams the past two weeks with games against Michigan State and Stanford. Those match-ups certainly tougher than the Bruins facing South Alabama and Colorado. The fact is the Buffaloes are one of the worst teams in the Pac-12 while the Jaguars are a Sun Belt team who, by the way, nearly had the Bruins beat here at UCLA in that match-up! The hosts had to rally to win the game in the 4th quarter. So UCLA won the game by 1 point in a game in which the yardage was nearly equal and in which the Bruins trailed by 8 points going to the 4th quarter. Huskies have faced the tougher schedule and have looked better in doing so. I know those games have been at home but the Huskies can win on the road too and they are loaded with confidence right now. 10* WASHINGTON -2.5 |
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09-30-22 | Saskatchewan v. Winnipeg UNDER 48.5 | Top | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 17 h 8 m | Show |
CFL Friday 10* Top Play UNDER 48.5 in Winnipeg Blue Bombers vs Saskatchewan Roughriders @ 8 ET - Both teams coming off a bye week preceded by a loss. Winnipeg allowed a ridiculous 48 points in their loss at Hamilton. Speaking of ridiculous, it was only 3 weeks ago that Winnipeg embarrassed the Roughriders by hanging 54 on them right here. That said, I feel both defenses are going to come to play here. Saskatchewan off a home loss to Edmonton and the D will want to respond after the 54-point debacle the last time here. As for the Blue Bombers, their defense also has had two weeks to think about the debacle at Hamilton as Tiger-Cats QB Dane Evans had a career day against them there. Don't expect a repeat of that here for sure as the Riders offensive line was a big reason they allowed 8 sacks in the loss to the Elks and the Blue Bombers should be getting QB pressure for sure. That is why I feel this one could finish as more of a defensive battle than most are envisioning. Also, the Blue Bombers can lock up a home field playoff game with a win here so their defense has some extra motivation because of that as well. 10* UNDER 48.5 in Winnipeg |
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09-30-22 | Voluntari v. CS U Craiova OVER 2.25 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -54.5 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
Romania Liga 1 Friday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 goals +120 in Universitatea Craiova vs FC Voluntari @ 2 ET - The hosts are a big favorite here at home for a reason. They are expected to win the match by 1 goal as you can see based on the goal line for this match-up. I do not expect them to deliver a clean sheet though and that means strong odds, in my opinion, on at least a 2-1 final in this match-up. Note that FC Voluntari is off a confidence boosting 1-0 win versus U Craiova 1948 in the most recent action 2 weeks ago. Also, they have scored at least 1 goal in 4 of their 5 road matches this season. Universitatea Craiova is in a high-scoring pattern as their last 3 matches have averaged 4 goals per game. You can see, given all of the above, why I am expecting at least 3 goals here. 10* OVER 2.5 goals +120 in Universitatea Craiova |
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09-29-22 | Dolphins v. Bengals OVER 47.5 | Top | 15-27 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 15 m | Show |
NFL Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 47.5 in Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami Dolphins @ 8:15 ET - Statistically the Dolphins are one of the top teams in the league for passing offense but one of the worst in terms of pass defense. That is the perfect set up for an over and we also have beautiful weather expected tonight in Cincinnati so both offenses can have the playbook wide open for this one. Love the fact that the Bengals have had all 3 of their games stay under the total and the Dolphins have had 2 of 3 stay under. This means we have a value spot here and sure enough the posted total has moved a little lower and I already felt it could have been higher. Bengals did not score well in the home loss to Pittsburgh to open up the season but they had 432 yards of offense in that game! Cincinnati will have another big performance in what is just their 2nd home game of the season but this time they will have more points to show for it. Keep in mind the Dolphins just faced a #1 ranked Bills defense and another one of their games was against a Patriots defense that has been solid in terms of yardage allowed this season. The point is that this Miami offense, their passing attack, is legitimate and will put pressure on this Bengals defense but I look for Cincinnati to match them score for score in what should be a wide-open and high-scoring affair. QB Tua Tagovailoa and WR Jaylen Waddle both were on the injury list as questionable but both expected to play here and I think the way they were handled this week is more precautionary than anything else. 10* OVER 47.5 in Cincinnati |
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09-29-22 | Utah State v. BYU OVER 59.5 | Top | 26-38 | Win | 100 | 19 h 39 m | Show |
CFB Thursday 10* OVER 59.5 in BYU Cougars vs Utah State Aggies @ 8 ET - The Aggies have disappointed so far this season and that is why this total has been dropping. Two key points to that though. Utah State is not going to stop this ultra-dangerous BYU offense. The Aggies have a veteran QB in Logan Bonner who had a fantastic TD-INT ratio coming into this season. He is off a very ugly game against UNLV in terms of turnovers but he will bounce back here. The Aggies will score some points but they are a 24 point dog with good reason here. That said, I love the over in this spot. BYU has seen 3 of their 4 games total more than 60 points this season. The Aggies, other than the game against Alabama of course (yes, Utah State had to face the Crimson Tide this season), have had better yardage in games than points to show for it. I feel that changes here. Utah State will be excited for this big game facing BYU as THE Thursday game this week and they will want to make the most of it. They will score some points as a result but, again, just not stopping a BYU team that has put up some huge numbers statistically on offense other than the tight relatively low-scoring OT win over Baylor. Look for the over to improve to 4-1 in Brigham Young games on the season. Also, I like the fact the weather is very mild and will be great weather for the offenses to fully operate tonight in Provo, Utah. 10* OVER the total in BYU |
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09-29-22 | Orioles v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles @ 1:35 ET - Action on pitchers. The Orioles and Red Sox, prior to yesterday's surprising 3-1 final, have continued to get involved in wild high-scoring games. I am going action on pitchers here because honestly neither may work deep in this game anyway. Baumann has only made 2 starts out of 11 appearances this season. He is 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA in his 4 road appearances and he is unlikely to work deep here so this is truly more of a bullpen game for the Orioles and we saw how the Red Sox responded against the Baltimore bullpen earlier in this series. The Boston starter here is expected to be Nathan Eovaldi and he is returning from a right shoulder issue. He was not overly impressive in rehab outings. Also, he has a 6.26 ERA with a .322 batting average against in his 8 home starts this season. Prior to yesterday, the Orioles last 5 road games had all totaled at least 9 runs and their last 4 games overall had totaled an average of 18.5 runs apiece! The Red Sox have seen 5 of their last 7 games total at least 9 runs. Also, Boston has scored an average of 9.3 runs per game last 4 home games. They are known for hitting so well at home and even though cooler fall-like weather has started to move in it will be temperate for sure. Just a nice fall afternoon at the ballpark. So we'll take advantage and look for the hitters to rule the day after a rare off-day yesterday for both lineups. 10* OVER 9 in Boston |
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09-28-22 | Phillies -1.5 v. Cubs | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 57 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 -110 @ Chicago Cubs @ 7:40 ET - The Phillies off a tight 2-1 loss but should bounce back here. I am going with action on pitchers as I look for a Philadelphia bounce back either way but I will mention that the expected starters are Aaron Nola and Hayden Wesneski. Note that Nola has been dominant for much of this season and has a 2.08 ERA this month plus his road ERA is lower than his home ERA this year. As for Wesneski, I know he has impressive numbers for far but he struggled in his lone start against a better team, the Giants, while feasting on bad teams like the Reds and Pirates and a Rockies team that can not hit on the road. So the point is that he is due for a reality check here. His stuff is not overpowering and he had a rather high ERA in the minors this season. In other words, he is a little over-rated right now and the struggles will come in this game against a tough Phillies lineup. Philadelphia has had only one losing streak last longer than 3 games since the All Star Break. The Phillies have gone 4-1 the last 5 times they have entered a game on a 3-game losing streak. The visitors respond big here and win this by a multi-run margin. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -110 |
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09-28-22 | Orioles v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7:10 ET - Action on pitchers. The Orioles and Red Sox continue to get involved in wild high-scoring games. I know Kremer has pitched well of late but Boston is feeling it right now at home and he did struggle here in his only start at Fenway Park this season. Hill has struggled badly at home this season with a 2-4 record and a 5.87 ERA. Also, in night games this season, Hill has a 6.36 ERA this season. In the month of September, Hill has a 5.96 ERA and opponents have hit .305 against him this month. The Orioles last 5 road games have all totaled at least 9 runs. Their last 4 games overall have totaled an average of 18.5 runs apiece! The Red Sox have seen 5 of their last 6 games total at least 9 runs. Also, Boston has scored an average of 11.3 runs per game last 3 home games. They are known for hitting so well at home and it is one more mild day in the forecast for Boston today on Wednesday before cooler fall-like weather starts to move in. So we'll take advantage and look for the hitters to rule the night once again. 10* OVER 9 in Boston |
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09-27-22 | Royals v. Tigers OVER 8 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 8 in Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals @ 6:40 ET - Action on pitchers. I like this play regardless of starters but will start with discussing the expected starting pitchers first. Joey Wentz has some solid numbers in limited action this season but his worst start was at home. Also, the big key here as he makes just the 6th start of his MLB career is the fact that he is facing the same team he saw a few weeks ago. This is the first time he has ever had to go a 2nd start against a team he already faced. Oftentimes young pitchers are more hittable in situations like this. As for Zack Greinke, he is known for often being stronger at home than on the road and this season that trending has been particularly pronounced. While he is 4-2 with a 2.32 ERA at home, Greinke is 0-7 with a 6.36 ERA on the road this season! Huge home/road dichotomy for him. Tigers have won 5 of 6 games and scored an average of 6 runs per game in the 5 victories. Royals have won 6 of 8 games and have scored an average of 6 runs per game in those 8 games. You can see why I am expecting plenty of runs in this one despite it being a chilly evening in Detroit for this one. Not cold but definitely cool but again the numbers show us what we should expect here and it should certainly be more than 8 given all of the above. 10* OVER 8 in Detroit |
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09-26-22 | Cowboys +1 v. Giants | Top | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 19 h 7 m | Show |
NFL Monday 10* Top Play Dallas Cowboys +1 @ New York Giants @ 8:15 - It is hard to stay undefeated in the NFL for very long. This is the final game of week 3 and only the Dolphins in AFC and Eagles in NFC are 3-0 teams. The point is that the Giants have a chance here too as they are 2-0 but it shows you how odds are stacked against this happening considering there are 32 teams in the league and all but 3 of them have at least 1 loss on the year. Aside from the "odds factor" here, I am playing Dallas in this one because their defense really impressed in the week 2 win over the Bengals and I also liked what I saw from Cooper Rush at QB. Yes it has hurt the Cowboys that they are without QB Dak Prescott but they still are a very talented team that annually is a threat for double digit wins in recent years. Conversely, the Giants have annually been a threat for double digits losses for half a decade now. New York has played better than expected and is 2-0 to start the season but I still don't trust QB Daniel Jones. After a good rookie season he had nearly as many INTs as TDs the past two seasons combined. I know he is off to a good start this season but he is going to face a tough challenge here with the way Dallas can get after the QB. I expect the Cowboys to win this game in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Also, Cowboys have won 9 of last 10 games against Giants. Also, Dallas has covered 6 straight games in divisional action. The Cowboys, long-term, on a very strong ATS run and that opening game primetime embarrassing loss to Tampa Bay has them primed for a much better effort on the road in this primetime affair. They can know up the Giants for a tie for 2nd place in the division with a win here. Yes it is early in the season but you can bet the Cowboys are very hungry here while Giants dealing with a little extra pressure to remain unbeaten and they are at home and facing a nemesis and coming off B2B dramatic tight wins. 10* DALLAS +1 |
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09-26-22 | Orioles v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 14-8 | Win | 100 | 17 h 13 m | Show |
MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7:10 ET - Action on pitchers as this is a hitter-friendly ballpark and hitter-friendly conditions are expected tonight. However, I will start with the expected starters here. The Orioles Jordan Lyles has a 5.48 ERA in road games this season and that is 2 runs higher than his home ERA. Also, the Red Sox have hammered Lyles this season and have hit him particularly hard last 3 meetings with 15 earned runs in just 12 innings. Boston has 25 hits in those 12 innings! As for Red Sox starter Connor Seabold, he has struggled in limited action in his MLB career. He is now 0-3 with a 10.47 ERA and .395 BAA in his 4 starts this season. Red Sox sticks struggled in weekend series with Yankees but now they are back at home. Boston is 8-4 last dozen home games and scored an average of 6 runs per game in these dozen games. Baltimore cooled off after a hot run from late July to mid-August. However, the Orioles still have a respectable lineup that enters this game having scored an average of 6 runs per game last 5 games. More of the same expected here as they bounce back from a 6-3 loss versus Houston yesterday. 10* OVER 9.5 in Boston |
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09-25-22 | 49ers v. Broncos +2 | Top | 10-11 | Win | 100 | 16 h 25 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Denver Broncos +1.5 vs San Francisco 49ers @ 8:20 ET - The 49ers have a good defense no doubt but San Francisco has seen bad offenses so far this season. Bears one of worst offenses in league and that opening week game at Chicago was played in rainy conditions. Then in week 2 the Niners faced a bad Seahawks offense. Seattle, like Chicago, will likely end up being one of the worst teams in the league this season. Now I know what your thinking...the Broncos lost to that bad Seattle team in week 1. However, Denver outgained the Seahawks by 180 yards and that was simply a bad beat for people that backed them - just like I did win week 1. That was a Monday night game and a big one for Russell Wilson in his return to Seattle. So the Broncos QB and the entire Denver team had a bit of a lackluster effort against a bad Texans team ad playing playing on a short week last week. Trust me, they'll now be ready for this primetime affair and they are not getting nearly enough respect from the oddsmakers. The Broncos also have a good defense just like the Niners do. The difference is the 49ers lost QB Trey Lance to a season-ending injury and Jimmy G was the back-up for a reason. He gets the start again here and the SF offense just is not that good no matter who is at QB. The Broncos have the better weapons and they have the better QB in Wilson. Add it all up plus the home dog value here and I am all over this one! 10* DENVER +1.5 |
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09-25-22 | Red Sox v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-2 | Push | 0 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:08 ET - Usually the way these series start is the way they go all the way through and this has been another high-scoring one between these teams. We just need 9 runs to be a winner with this one and each of the first 3 games in this series have reached at least that and yesterday's totaled a dozen runs. The last 15 games between these rivals have averaged about 11 runs per game and I look for another high-scoring one tonight. I know Cortes has good numbers for the Yankees this season but he did struggled in his first start against Boston this season. I know the second one, earlier this month, did go better for him but I like the way the Red Sox have been swinging the bats again and they have confidence heading into this one. As for Bello, he has a 0.90 ERA last two starts but that is deceiving as he has given up 14 hits in 10 innings spanning those two outings! One of those was against the Yankees and now they hit him harder in the rematch. He has been very hittable this season and gets hit hard here again. No matter the starting pitchers, I expect this one to fly over the total! 10* OVER 8.5 in New York Yankees |
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09-25-22 | Packers v. Bucs OVER 42 | Top | 14-12 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 42 in Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Green Bay Packers @ 4:25 ET - This total has plummeted. The tropical storm approaching Florida is in the news but that is still a few days away. That said, the big reason for the drop here is that the Bucs have concerns at the WR spot. Evans is suspended for this game and Godwin is out with an injury. I do expect Julio Jones to play and QB Tom Brady (finger) also has been given the all clear for this one. Gage and Perriman and Miller all expected to be available at WR too for this one. Also Cole Beasley has been activated from the practice squad to the roster and he caught 82 passes EACH of the last two seasons for the Bills. Everyone excited about the Packers defense after they shut down Bears last week but the Chicago offense is currently putrid. The week before the Pack gave up nearly 400 yards and allowed 23 points at Minnesota. Yes that is the same Vikings team the Eagles just held to 7 points on Monday night. As for the Bucs team they have faced a dysfunctional Cowboys offense and a Saints offense with a long-term inconsistent QB (Winston) at the helm. Now the Bucs D faces Aaron Rodgers! This total is a 42 and we are talking about Brady versus Rogers. I see more points being scored than many are expecting here. Green Bay's offense was done in by turnovers in week 1 and then in week 2 they piled up 27 points in first half before taking their foot off the gas in the 2nd half and the Bears defense is solid. These teams are offering us great value on the low total here because they each have had B2B unders to start the year. 10* OVER 42 in Tampa Bay |
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09-25-22 | Padres v. Rockies OVER 10.5 | Top | 13-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 10.5 in Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres @ 3:10 ET - Another high-scoring game expected here. These teams have had a lot of high-scoring games this season when they meet up and that resumed yesterday after a strange result Friday when the teams went a combined 3 for 19 with runners in scoring position. Now the runs are flowing in and that continues on a mild Sunday afternoon in Denver. Coors Field will see the ball carrying very well in this one and Clevinger is known for struggling on the road and this is not an easy venue to pitch in and he has struggled here this season. At the same time, Freeland is known for struggling more at home (naturally with the venue) and he has struggled against the Padres when facing them here this season. Off a 9-run outburst yesterday fueled by a 6-run inning, San Diego has extra confidence at the plate today and this one should get crazy as Rockies have yet to score well in this series and I sense they will mash today. It is not often they do not score well at home throughout a series and this is the right spot for them to smash the ball. 10* OVER 10.5 in Colorado |
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09-25-22 | Chiefs v. Colts +5.5 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Indianapolis Colts +5.5 vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 1 ET - Being a contrarian in the NFL has served me very well through the years. I love this spot for the Colts. They just lost at Jacksonville in embarrassing 24-0 fashion. This was after an embarrassing tie at Houston in which they outgained the Texans by over 200 yards but still did not win the game. Now Indianapolis plays their first home game of the season and they are catching 5.5 points against a Chiefs team off a very lucky win. Kansas City got the non-covering win versus the Chargers last week but were outgained, even though at home, by nearly 100 yards! The Chiefs truly only won that game because of a 99-yard interception return that was essentially a 14-point swing on the scoreboard. Now we get line value this week as a result. The 2-0 Chiefs at the 0-2 Colts. Looks like a no-brainer, right? No, this is the NFL and "on any given Sunday" holds very true in many games each and every week. The Colts are much better than they have shown so far and the Chiefs piled up yardage against a bad Cardinals defense in week 1 but then struggled quite a bit against a real defense in the form of the Chargers last week. Keep in mind, statistically the Colts have been much better on both sides of the ball then the point totals show. Grab the home dog and I am expecting an outright upset here but will grab the points. 10* INDIANAPOLIS +5.5 |
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09-24-22 | Calgary +1 v. BC | Top | 25-11 | Win | 100 | 23 h 54 m | Show |
CFL Saturday 10* Top Play Calgary Stampeders +1 @ BC Lions @ 10 PM ET - Yes the Lions managed to sneak past the Stampeders last week but it was in OT and BC still has not won a game in regulation time since week 11 and we are now in week 15. Calgary is 5-2 on the road this season and the only two losses away from home were at Winnipeg. Of course the Blue Bombers have been the best team in the league this season so no shame in those two defeats and one of the losses was by just a 2-point margin. The Stamps QB Maier had 3 touchdown passes last week while the Lions Adams did not have a single one. Yes, BC is a quality football team but they are not the same team without Rourke at QB. He was lost to a season-ending injury about a month ago and the Lions have struggled since then. After the Lions clawed their way to a tight OT victory last week at Calgary, look for the Stampeders to return the favor at BC! Note that the Stamps are 8-0 this season against teams not named Winnipeg or BC. The Lions have beaten them twice but by a total of just 3 points. There is a reason this game is priced at nearly a pick'em even though the Stampeders are on the road. This time the Stamps get over the hump and beat BC as I liked what I saw last week despite them falling just short on the scoreboard. Payback time in a key game for the visitors here. 10* CALGARY +1 |
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09-24-22 | Padres v. Rockies OVER 10.5 | Top | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 20 m | Show |
MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 10.5 in Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres @ 8:10 ET - As mentioned yesterday, the Rockies are happy to see the Giants leave Denver! Colorado had just got swept by San Francisco and did not score well at all in any of the final 3 games of the 4-game sweep. Off a home shutout Thursday by a 3-0 count even though each team got to double digits in hits, I expected the runs to start pouring in now with the Padres coming to town. However, the teams went a ridiculous combined 3 of 19 with runners in scoring position yesterday! Look for more clutch hitting today for sure after that nonsense. These teams have had a lot of high-scoring games when they meet no matter the venue and I also like the fact that San Diego entered this series 13-8 last 21 road games. The Padres scored an average of nearly 7 runs per game in those 13 road victories! The Rockies should join the run-scoring party tonight as they have a tendency to pound Padres pitching when they face them here at Coors Field. No matter the starting pitchers here, I like the over in this one. But I will mention the expected starters are Yu Darvish and Chad Kuhl. Note that Darvish struggles more on the road including going 2-7 with a 5.54 ERA on the road last season. He also has struggled at times against the Rockies in recent seasons. As for Kuhl, he is winless with a 9.00 ERA and a .325 BAA in his 8 starts since All-Star break. My play is with action on pitchers! I'll take advantage of the line drop to 10.5 here! 10* OVER 10.5 in Colorado |
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09-24-22 | Toronto v. Ottawa OVER 46.5 | Top | 45-15 | Win | 100 | 20 h 12 m | Show |
CFL Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 46.5 in Ottawa Redblacks vs Toronto Argonauts @ 7 ET - These teams are off a bye week last week and had met the week before. The bye week means fresh legs here and the offenses will push the pace. The meeting the week prior staying under the total despite both teams putting up very impressive yardage numbers means line value here. The game two weeks ago should have easily gone over the total and yet ended up an under. The result is we have a total lower than it should be here and we have false perception in the marketplace. We'll take advantage. This one flies over the total as both offenses move the ball very well again and, this time, the points scored are commensurate with the yardage being piled up! 10* OVER 46.5 in Ottawa |
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09-24-22 | Arkansas State v. Old Dominion OVER 56.5 | Top | 26-29 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
Saturday CFB 10* Top Play OVER 56.5 in Old Dominion Monarchs vs Arkansas State Red Wolves @ 6 ET - We cashed with the over involving Arkansas State last week (at Memphis) and just as I mentioned last week you will read some similar things this week. I know this is not an exciting marquee match-up but this one jumped off the page at me because if you like the excitement of a ton of points being scored, this most certainly should be an entertaining affair here. Old Dominion is off a deceiving final score last week as they allowed over 500 yards of offense but only 16 points! That kind of craziness often leads to line value the very next week and that is the case here. Let's not forget the Monarchs did allow 39 points in their prior game which was at East Carolina. Also, though the Old Dominion offense has unimpressive stats so far they now take on an Arkansas State team that has allowed huge points and yardage against FBS foes. The Red Wolves rank as one of the worst defenses in the nation. However, Arkansas State's offense does their best to try to make up for it. They scored 32 points last week versus Memphis and also did put up 50 on those same Tigers last season when they faced them. Arkansas State no stranger to shootouts is the point I am making and lets not forget they scored over 50 in their first game this season. Even though that was only against Grambling, it is proof the offense can execute when the match-up is favorable. This one is favorable for sure in terms of plenty of points scored and the Red Wolves will score their fair share here. However, they are the underdog here for a reason. They just will not be able to stop a Monarchs offense that is at home and desperately in search of that breakout game and now has the perfect poor defense to be very efficient against and pile up points. The Red Wolves don't have the defensive talent to slow them down. The result is a shootout in this one. 10* OVER 56.5 in Old Dominion |
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09-24-22 | Braves v. Phillies +130 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 32 m | Show |
MLB Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +120 vs Atlanta Braves @ 4:05 ET - Action on pitchers. We cashed in tremendous home dog value with the Phillies Thursday as a top play underdog and now will come right back with them again in similar situation Saturday after also cashing with them Friday as the favorite. Phillies won 9-1 yesterday and I love this spot too. The home team has now won 9 of last 11 games between these divisional rivals. Philadelphia is riding the momentum of big 9-1 win yesterday following 1-0 shutout win Thursday after Wednesday's dramatic 4-3 comeback win in extra innings. Riding the positive wave, the Phillies are going to be tough to beat here. Keep in mind this series is the Phillies final home series of the season! They have had this one circled as being of key importance in their quest for securing a wild card spot because it is a long road trip after this to close out the season. That said, I like this play regardless of pitchers here but will mention that Falter has been pitching very well and has a 2.25 ERA last 7 starts. Wright has an impressive record for Braves on season but he has been roughed up recently in the month of September and the Phillies are currently the much hotter lineup in comparison with Atlanta. Acuna (back) might miss again to day for Braves. I look for the home team to improve to 10-2 last 12 between these rivals. The Braves are actually just 1-6 last 7 road games and have been held to an average of just 1 run per game in 5 of the 6 losses! More of the same expected here. 10* PHILADELPHIA +120 |
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09-24-22 | Texas v. Texas Tech +7 | Top | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Texas Tech Red Raiders +7 vs Texas Longhorns @ 3:30 ET - When people think of the Longhorns football program right now most just keep thinking about the game against Alabama two weeks ago which certainly was an ultra-impressive performance from Texas and they should be (and have been) commended for that. However, their first game of the season was against an out-classed UL Monroe team and then, after facing Crimson Tide, they faced a UTSA team that is set to be down some this season. Also, Roadrunners are not on the same level as the UT program yet actually hung much tougher with the Horns then the final score shows. UTSA had over 400 yards of offense and had 29 first downs compared to just 21 for Texas. Now further complicating this match-up for UT is, after getting hurt in the Alabama game, their starting QB still likely will not start this game. Ewers had a collarbone injury and even if he plays here I don't think he'll be 100% here. Either way, Card or Ewers making their first road start of this season and that is another big key here. UT has had a great early season schedule with 3 straight home games and their 2 wins over foes from much weaker conferences. Now the Longhorns finally go on the road and this is a big rivalry game and the Red Raiders would love nothing more to knock off their in-state rivals. Texas Tech has played very strong on defense this season and their loss at NC State last week was deceiving as they actually had a big yardage edge and first down edge and were simply done in by turnovers against the Wolfpack. All this has led to line value on the home dog catching a full touchdown here. The fact that UT has dominated this rivalry in recent years only adds fuel to the fire that will be burning for the team from Lubbock today. This is a fantastic home dog spot! 10* TEXAS TECH +7 |
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09-23-22 | Padres v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -103 | 15 h 11 m | Show |
MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 11.5 in Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres @ 8:10 ET - Rockies are happy to see the Giants leave Denver! Colorado just got swept by San Francisco and did not score well at all in any of the final 3 games of the 4-game sweep. Off a home shutout yesterday by a 3-0 count even though each team got to double digits in hits, look for the runs to start pouring in today with the Padres now in town. These teams have had a lot of high-scoring games when they meet no matter the venue and I also like the fact that San Diego is 13-8 last 21 road games. The Padres scored an average of nearly 7 runs per game in those 13 road victories! The Rockies should join the run-scoring party tonight as they have a tendency to pound Padres pitching when they face them here at Coors Field. No matter the starting pitchers here, I like the over in this one. But I will mention the expected starters are Sean Manaea and Ryan Feltner. Note that Manaea is 2-6 with a 6.10 ERA on the road this season. He also is 2-5 with a 7.63 ERA since the all-star break. As for Feltner, he is 2-4 with a 6.27 ERA in home games this season. Also, he is 2-5 the past two months combined and had a 6.00 ERA last month and has a 7.43 ERA so far this month. My play is with action on the pitchers and there should be plenty of runs in this one! 10* OVER 11.5 in Colorado |
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09-23-22 | Hamilton +2.5 v. Montreal | Top | 16-23 | Loss | -125 | 19 h 51 m | Show |
CFL Friday 10* Top Play Hamilton Tiger-Cats +2.5 @ Montreal Alouettes @ 7:30 ET - Look for Hamilton to build off their big upset win last week at home versus the Blue Bombers. Of course Winnipeg the best team in the CFL this season so the Tiger-Cats upsetting them is nothing to sneeze at. The fact is this Ti-Cats team is much better than their record shows. Lets not forget they have been a threat for the Grey Cup title each of the past two seasons. Now Hamilton is still looking up in the standings at Montreal but can equal them with a win here and improve their playoff chances. Look for the Ti-Cats to do just that as they also have a revenge from a tight 1-point loss in the last meeting between these teams and they want payback against the Als. I know Montreal is off a bye week but the Alouettes had allowed 31 points per game in 8 games before a 31-10 win over a badly wounded BC team before their bye week last week. I just do not trust the Als defense and feel the Ti-Cats unit is the better unit even though some of their recent points allowed totals would not lead you to believe that. There is a reason that a Tiger-Cats team that is 0-6 SU on the road this season is catching such a small number here. Don't let the line fool you. The road team is the play here and I look for them to get revenge and finally get a road win! Grab the points just in case. 10* HAMILTON +2.5 |
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09-23-22 | Virginia v. Syracuse OVER 53.5 | Top | 20-22 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 0 m | Show |
CFB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 53.5 in Syracuse Orange vs Virginia Cavaliers @ 7 ET - This will be interesting because Robert Anae is the offensive coordinator at Syracuse but, just last season he was in the same position at Virginia under since-retired head coach Bronco Mendenhall. The point is that Anae is going to want to show the Cavs what his Orange offense can do. At the same time, the offense of the Cavaliers led by QB Brennan Armstrong - a rare lefty QB - will be out to prove they can get it done without Anae leading the offense as the OC any longer in Virginia. A big key here is perception. The Cavs scored only 16 points last week but had over 500 yards of offense! The Orange beat Purdue last week but allowed over 400 passing yards in the win! I really wanted to fade Syracuse here as I feel they are over-rated but I just can't trust this Cavaliers defense. At the same time the Orange offense has looked good so far this season under new OC Anae as QB Garrett Shrader is off to a hot start including 8 TDs and 0 INTs. So look for both teams to have plenty of success on offense in this one. Statistically both teams points allowed stats are not commensurate with their yardage allowed this season. In other words, both the Cuse and VA should have more points per game allowed on the season. Look for this one to to turn into a wild high-scoring affair in the controlled environment of The Dome in upstate New York. 10* OVER 53.5 in Syracuse |
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09-22-22 | Steelers v. Browns -4 | Top | 17-29 | Win | 100 | 17 h 27 m | Show |
NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Cleveland Browns -4 vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 8:15 ET - If you just look at points scored versus points allowed you don't get an accurate picture of where these two 1-1 AFC North rival teams are really at right now. The fact is that Cleveland has been the much better team statistically in comparison with Pittsburgh. Adding to the value with the Browns here is they have more than just the home field edge here. It is expected to be very windy in Cleveland for this one and that makes the ground game all the more important. The Steelers are not a good a ground team and also don't defend the run well. Conversely, the Browns are strong in both those areas. They can pound it on the ground and they do a good job of stuffing the run on the other side of the ball. That said, we have excellent line value here with Cleveland laying a rather short number in this one. I like to look for dogs in the NFL generally speaking but the Steelers are a really bad football team right now on both sides of the ball. The Browns will take advantage as they are angry off the late-game home loss to the Jets last week. Keep in mind, Pittsburgh was outgained 432 to 267 in week 1 but had a 5-0 turnover edge and yet still need OT to get the win at Cincinnati. The Browns have only 1 turnover in two games and the Steelers will not be so fortunate here receiving gifts like they did in the win over Bengals. Also, Pittsburgh was again outgained big, 376 to 243, by the Patriots last week and that game was at Heinz Field! This is a tough road spot for the Steelers plus the Browns have double revenge from last season in addition to being angry about last week's loss to the Jets! 10* CLEVELAND -4 |
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09-22-22 | Coastal Carolina v. Georgia State OVER 61.5 | Top | 41-24 | Win | 100 | 17 h 30 m | Show |
CFB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 61.5 in Georgia State Panthers vs Coastal Carolina Chanticleers @ 7:30 ET - This match-up first caught my attention because of the line as it looks funny to see 3-0 Coastal Carolina laying just a couple points against an 0-3 Georgia State team. That is part of how I arrived at a big play on the over in this one. The Panthers have played the tougher schedule but still their defense has not looked good. I just can not trust the Georgia State defense. The Panthers have allowed at least 35 points in all 3 games this season. Here they are hosting a Coastal Carolina team that has scored at least 31 points in all 3 games this season. So I see the Chanticleers moving the ball just fine here and scoring plenty of points but, based on the spread on this game too, I look at this match-up as a toss-up in terms of who wins it. That is why I am forecasting a high-scoring back and forth thriller in this one! Keep in mind, Coastal Carolina has allowed at least 26 points in all 3 games this season and they were huge favorites in their last two games so this is going to be the toughest competition they have faced since their opener against Army. The Panthers are going to score very well here as a result but Chanticleers likely to answer them score for score. Keep in mind, Georgia State was about a 20 point favorite in that game and yet still allowed a ton of points in a game that totaled 83 points and over 1,100 yards of offense. 10* OVER 61.5 in Georgia State |
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09-22-22 | Braves v. Phillies +136 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 136 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
MLB Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +135 vs Atlanta Braves @ 7:15 ET - Action on pitchers. Tremendous home dog value here. The home team has won 7 of last 9 games between these divisional rivals. Line value here because the market perceives a huge pitching edge here because of Fried on the mound for Braves and Suarez getting the call for the Phillies. Note that Fried actually has allowed multiple homers in each of his last two starts and one of those was against the Phillies and that was in Atlanta. The last time he faced them in Philly he gave up 9 hits in 6 innings. Philadelphia is riding the momentum of last night's dramatic 4-3 comeback win in extra innings and is going to be tough to beat here. Keep in mind this series is the Phillies final home series of the season! They have this one circled as being of key importance in their quest for securing a wild card spot because it is a long road trip after this to close out the season. That said, I like this play regardless of pitchers and I like the home dog value here as I look for the home team to improve to 8-2 last 10 between these rivals. As for Suarez, he just faced the Braves in Atlanta and was very strong against them. He has allowed just 1 earned run in last 11 innings versus the Braves. More of the same expected here. 10* PHILADELPHIA +135 |
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09-22-22 | Twins v. Royals OVER 8 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 8 in Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins @ 2:10 ET - Action on pitchers. These teams combined to go 5 for 22 with runners in scoring position yesterday and that is why our over 8 ended up 1 run shy at 7 runs. The point is that the opportunities were there but the teams just did cash them in. I like coming back with overs in the same match-up the day after a game like that. We get line value here because it will be a cool afternoon with north winds expected in KC. But still the weather is not brutal and I like the fact we get an over 8 here. I am grabbing the over regardless of who ends up starting, my bet is action, but will mention the starting pitchers that are expected here. Josh Winder has struggled and/or been hit hard in all but 1 of his last 7 appearances. Jonathan Heasley is 2-6 with a 6.43 ERA at home and a 1-6 with a 6.75 ERA in day games this season. Yes this is an afternoon game at Kaufmann Stadium so both those factors are in play here. Here we get payback after yesterday's tough result. 10* OVER 8 in Kansas City |
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09-21-22 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -140 | 15 h 4 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 -140 vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 10:10 ET - Action on pitchers. The Dodgers entered yesterday with 89 wins by 2 or more runs this season. That was out of 146 games on the season. Many teams will not even win 89 games out of 162 this season and we are talking about 89 wins by a multiple run margin! Simply put, LA has been absolutely dominant this season yet yesterday they played a double header and did not win either game by a multi-run margin. After winning game one by a single run, Los Angeles lost game two outright. That said, regardless of pitchers here, the odds favor a big Dodgers bounce back here and I like this run line play as a great bounce back spot for LA. But now I will touch on the pitchers and will mention that Bumgarner has struggled badly for many weeks now and almost always allows 4 or more earned runs in recent starts. That spells trouble against May and the Dodgers. May has been mostly solid in his outings since coming back from injury and the Dbacks hitters have very little familiarity with him so that is another edge for him here. Look for the home team to roll big in this one! 10* Los Angeles Dodgers Run Line -1.5 -140 |
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09-21-22 | Twins v. Royals OVER 8 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 8 in Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins @ 8:10 ET - Action on pitchers. Love the fact this total dropped to 8 runs even though both teams reached double digits in hits yesterday. Look for both lineups to stay hot here in another meaningless late season season. Indeed I love overs in games like this in the final couple weeks of season because the batters are so relaxed at the plate. It does matter too that both teams are out of contention not just one because if one team is in contention the other will try to play the role of spoiler too and then there is some extra pressure on each team really. In games like this one there is, as noted above, no pressure and the team should swing the bats well again. I really don't care who the pitchers are but will mention that Ober has not pitched a whole lot this season but when he did he faced the Royals a couple times and they got to him in the 2nd outing. Same thing last season too and so Kansas City has a lot of experience against him and it will continue to pay off. The KC starter here is expected to be Lynch and he has struggled badly over his last 5 starts and is showing no signs of turning things around. Look for the Minnesota sticks to take advantage. 10* OVER 8 in Kansas City |
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09-20-22 | Cardinals v. Padres OVER 7.5 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 7 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 7.5 in San Diego Padres vs St Louis Cardinals @ 9:40 ET - Action on pitchers. The Cardinals were 36-13 last 49 games before a shutout loss Sunday. St Louis has been hot for a very long time and scoring an average of 5.3 runs per game last 50 games. Just feel we have good value with the low total here. Yes it is a night game in San Diego but note that the Padres have won 13 of 21 games and have averaged scoring 6 runs per game in the 13 victories and have allowed a ridiculous average of 9 runs per game in those 8 defeats. Could this be another high-scoring game? Regardless of starting pitchers (my play is action as always) I do feel we are looking at big runs here. Clevinger the expected starter for SDG and has been getting crushed with a 10.13 ERA this month plus in his last 5 starts he has allowed at least one homer in each and is giving up average of nearly 2 homers per start during this stretch! As for the Cards Wainwright, the long-term story on him has been that of success at home but a general tendency to struggle at times on the road. Wainwright has a 2.61 ERA in STL this season but a 4.31 ERA on the road. More of the same here as Padres high-scoring trending in ballgames continues here. 10* OVER 7.5 in San Diego |
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09-20-22 | Nationals v. Braves OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 34 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* OVER 8.5 in Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals @ 7:20 ET - Action on pitchers. You can tell by the line on this one that there decent odds that Braves win this game by at least a 3 run margin. That means if Nationals get to at least 3 runs you are likely looking at a 6-3 game here and a winning ticket. Note that Washington had scored at least 3 runs in 18 of last 21 games before being held under that in each of the defeats in their current 2-game losing streak. Overall, the Nats averaged 4.6 runs per game in those 21 games. This team can hit a little and has the type of decent sticks too that can give Morton some trouble. Charlie Morton is the expected starter for the Braves and he has actually allowed 4 earned runs in each of his last two starts and 3 of his last 4 overall! The Washington starter here is expected to be Patrick Corbin and he is 6-18 with a 6.11 ERA this season. He occasionally comes up with a strong start at home but rarely ever on the road! In fact, Corbin is 2-11 with a 7.83 ERA on the road and opponents are hitting .363 against him in his outings away from home. No matter the pitchers, note that the Braves are 13-4 last 17 games and have scored an average of 6 runs per game in their last 9 wins. Look for the home team to roll in this one on a hot night in Georgia and the weather also helps the bats in this one as both teams crush the ball and it carries well. 10* OVER 8.5 in Atlanta |
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09-19-22 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 27 m | Show |
MLB Monday 10* OVER 7.5 in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 10:10 ET - Action on pitchers. Part of the reason for action on pitchers here is Arizona has some uncertainty about who they will start here. But what we do know is that it won't be Zac Gallen or Ryne Nelson because those guys just pitched. That said, the Diamondbacks other starting options are not impressive other than Merrill Kelly but if he pitches here, note that he is having a phenomenal season EXCEPT for when facing the Dodgers. They have had his number this season. So the point is no matter who pitches here for either team I like the over. I know that Clayton Kershaw is the expected starter for the Dodgers and he just had success against the Diamondbacks last week when he faced them. However, he did not record a lot of strikeouts in that one and they seemed to get a little better wood on him as the game went on. I am expecting success from both clubs at the plate tonight as the Diamonbacks are back on the road where they have gone 8-5 last 13 and scored an average of nearly 6 runs per game during that stretch. As for Dodgers they have won 11 of 14 games and scored an average of 6.5 runs per game during yet another hot streak for this red hot LA team. 10* OVER 7.5 in Los Angeles Dodgers |
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09-19-22 | Giants v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 10-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 11.5 in Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants @ 8:40 ET - Action on pitchers. Very warm weather in Denver by September standards. The ball is going to be carrying well here no matter who is on the mound and should be plenty of relaxed hitters at the plate. Rockies love hitting at home and the playoff pressure is off for the Giants as they have faded out of the playoff picture. That means hitters should have huge games in this one. So I will quickly touch on the pitchers but, again, my play is action on pitcher. Jakob Junis is 0-5 with a 5.29 ERA since the All Star break. Chad Kuhl is 0-4 with an 8.90 ERA since the All Star break! Those are the expected starters and both are having a rough time in recent months. As for Rockies games and how they have been trending at home, note that their last 17 games at Coors Field have averaged 13.4 runs per game! Yes the Giants have struggled recently at the plate but their 6 games at Coors Field this season have seen the teams combined to average 12 runs per game and they even had some big games at home against Rockies too. San Francisco will get their bats going here but they will need all the runs they can get because hosts should have huge game too given all of the above. 10* OVER 11.5 in Colorado |
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09-18-22 | Bears v. Packers OVER 41.5 | Top | 10-27 | Loss | -107 | 16 h 32 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 41.5 in Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears @ 8:20 ET - Love taking an over when it has dropped like this one. Yes, the Bears are off an ugly 19-10 win last week but it was played in bad weather. QB Fields will be better this week as excellent weather in the forecast for Green Bay in this one. The trouble for Fields and company in this one is on the other side of the ball. Chicago is facing a much tougher test this week as now they face Aaron Rodgers and an angry Packers offense after they were held to just 7 points by the Vikings last week. At home and off a loss, Green Bay is known for bouncing back and they are, of course, double digit favorites here for a reason. I generally am not comfortable laying double digits in NFL games but this is particularly true in a divisional game where I expect the underdog to have some success moving the ball. Keep in mind Fields has added a new dimension to the Bears attack on offense plus the Packers did allow nearly 400 yards of offense this week. I would not be surprised to see Green Bay win big here but I think they surrender some points along the way as well and look for a 30-20 type game in this one. Last year's meeting here at Lambeau totaled 75 points and I'll gladly take 2/3 of that for the win here with my numbers forecasting this one to land around 50! Fields had about 300 yards of offense in that one through the air and on the ground so that helps the confidence of the young QB for this one. Plus coming off the win, even though ugly, last week also helps Fields. 10* OVER 41.5 in Green Bay |
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09-18-22 | Texans v. Broncos OVER 45 | Top | 9-16 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* OVER 45 or 45.5 in Denver Broncos vs Houston Texans @ 4:25 ET - This total has risen higher but it is fully justified in doing so. This is one of those rare occurrences where I actually I am on the move rather than fading it. But the reason is that I had my eyes on this for a potential play ever since Texans allowed over 500 yards to Colts last week but miraculously only gave up 20 points in the eventual OT tie. Couple that with the fact Broncos lost at Seattle and scored only 16 points despite piling up 433 yards of offense and you have a great set up for Denver to score a ton of points here. However, I do not like laying big points in spread sports so my play here is the over rather than the Broncos. I do expect Denver to be relentless and never take their foot off the gas in this one because they are angry about how the Monday night game ended in Seattle. However, Denver will give up some points here too. For one thing the defense gave a big effort against the Seahawks and now play this one on a short week. Also, Mills was decent at QB for Houston versus the Colts last week. If they get 20 again but lose this by double digits like I fully expect they will, then this one gets well into the 50s. Expecting huge game from Russell Wilson and company after last week's frustrating final. The other thing I like here, and the reason I wait longer to release my plays, is that the weather checks out perfectly in Denver for this one. That said, and with both these kickers solid at distance, we could get some long field goals to help our cause in this one too. What happens when a guy misses a long one too? Short field the other way. Conditions and situation just perfect for plenty of points here and of course I am expecting plenty of touchdowns here but just mentioning the field goal game helps us too and I do not expect many punts in this one. 10* OVER 45 or 45.5 in Denver |
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09-18-22 | Steaua Bucharesti +0.25 v. CS U Craiova | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -113 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
Romania Liga 1 Sunday 10* Top Play FCSB Goal Line Pick +130 @ Universitatea Craiova @ 2:30 ET - Utilizing the goal line here means that even if this match ends in a draw we still do not lose the pick. That is a nice added value to have here because FCSB is much better than people realize even this season. The problem is they continue to be "kings of the draw" as they have finished equal with their opponent in 5 matches already this season. Even though FCSB is down low in the standings, this is a club that has only 2 losses so far on the campaign. Out of the 16-club league, FCSB is one of only 3 clubs with 2 or less losses on the season. That said, a lot of value here in grabbing the goal line and fading a Universitatea Craiova that has won just 4 of 9 matches. That is a respectable win rate for sure but still the odds, as you can see, still slightly favor the hosts not winning this match. Tipping the odds even more in a our favor though is the fact that FCSB got ripped off last week and gave up a late tying goal on a penalty shot in the waning minutes of extra time. It was a sickening draw for FCSB against Voluntari and I feel they will be relentless on the road in this match as a result. I do expect a win here but hard to trust FCSB to claim victory considering how many draws they have had this season. That said, the value is there with the goal line giving us some extra insurance in the event of a draw. Great spot for the visitors though. No doubt about that and they catch Universitatea Craiova off 2 shutout losses in last 3 matches! 10* FCSB Goal Line Pick +130 |
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09-18-22 | Royals v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-13 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals @ 1:35 ET - This is the biggest total on the board Sunday in MLB with a 9.5 across the board. I am not questioning the big number in the least. This is a superb value spot because double digits fully expected here. The Royals just exploded for 9 runs on 15 hits yesterday. Also, the Red Sox are sure to respond after a rare shutout loss at Fenway Park. With Kris Bubic on the mound I fully expect the big response here. The KC lefty having a very rough season and it is not getting any better. Since the start of August he is 0-6 and opponents are hitting about .350 against him. As for Red Sox starter Nick Pivetta, he struggled against the Royals at Kaufmann Stadium earlier this season and now has to face them at Fenway Park where he has a 4.78 ERA and opponents are hitting .274 against him. Last season he had a 5.40 ERA at home too so this is no fluke and he has allowed 30 homers in last 30 starts here! No matter the starting pitchers here (as usual my play is action), I like the over here. Boston had won 8 of 14 games prior to yesterday's shutout and they scored an average of 7 runs in those victories. In their last 10 losses they have allowed an average of 6.3 runs. The Royals had been slumping lately but yesterday's game will get them rolling again and their 6 games against the Red Sox this season have averaged 10 runs per game. This one gets to double digits too! 10* OVER 9.5 in Boston |
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09-18-22 | Colts -2.5 v. Jaguars | Top | 0-24 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Indianapolis Colts -2.5 or -3 @ Jacksonville Jaguars @ 1 ET - Line value because the Colts are on the road. Line value because everyone saw Colts end up in an overtime tie at Houston last week. Line value because many may not have realized Indianapolis won the yardage battle 517 to 299 over the Texans last week. Line value because many may have forgotten (but Colts surely have not) that it was these Jaguars that cost Indy a playoff berth last season. Line value because many may have forgotten (but we have not) that Jacksonville, after last week's loss, is now on a long-term 4-30 SU run. Going further back it is a 15-51 SU run for the Jags. It has been a long time since the Jaguars have put a winning team on the field as their last successful season was 2017. Conversely, this Colts team is a winner and they prove it on Sunday and get payback for last year's loss. Very comfortable laying the short number here. Look for QB Matt Ryan to cut down on the fumbles here and for Indy to, overall, have a very complete game in this one which will lead to a dominating road win. 10* INDIANAPOLIS -2.5 or -3 |
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09-18-22 | Chindia Targoviste v. Universitatea Cluj OVER 2 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
Romania Liga 1 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 2 in Universitatea Cluj vs Chindia Targoviste @ 11:30 AM ET - Getting a total of 2 goals with the over in this one is a great value as Chindia Targoviste is scoring an average of 1 goal per match but allowing an average of 2 goals per match this season. Universitatea Cluj is allowing an average of 1 goal per match this season but is favored here for a reason. In other words, this match is set up perfectly for a 2-1 final in favor of the hosts. Not matter the exact final, based on statistical value and the fact that Chindia Targoviste has had only 1 match out of 9 this season NOT reach at least 2 goals, there is no hesitation in going top play on this one. 10* OVER 2 in Universitatea Cluj |
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09-18-22 | West Ham United v. Everton OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
EPL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 in Everton vs West Ham United @ 9:15 AM ET - Recent series is history of unders as 3 of last 4 meetings have finished as 1-0 matches. Also, Everton has seen each of last 5 matches total 2 or less goals. However, all that said, I really like the over in this one. The goalie match-up should help us here as it is expected to be Begovic vs Fabianski and this is a first plus in this situation. I also like the fact that West Ham got their goal-scoring going again as they erupted in B2B wins in UEFA Europa Conference League action with netting 3 times in each victory. West Ham has now scored at least 1 goal in each of last 5 matches across all competitions. Also, the visitors enter this one having allowed 1.5 goals per match last 4 and this is also across all competitions. This line is saying it is roughly a toss up and I know that Everton is tired of all the draws (4 in 6 matches) and will push hard for the full 3 points at home in this one. In going hard for the 3 points, feel strongly we will see at least 3 goals here as well in what will likely be a 2-1 final. 10* OVER 2.5 in Everton |
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09-18-22 | Arsenal v. Brentford +373 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 14 m | Show |
EPL Sunday 10* Top Play Brentford Bees Money Line +373 vs Arsenal @ 7 AM ET - Great line value with the home dog Bees here. Arsenal's most recent EPL match was a 3-1 loss to Manchester City. Let us not forget that Brentford beat Manchester United here at home 4-0 earlier this season. This Bees club is tough and especially at home where they have a 10-3 goal differential after knocking off Leeds 5-2 in most recent match here. Arsenal is a high-quality club and playing well but I feel the loss to City could be just enough of a mental factor to shake the confidence a bit and this is a tough road match for Arsenal. The visitors played some newly promoted clubs earlier this season and some other clubs that are down in the table right now. The point is that when Arsenal had to step and face City they got hammered 3-1. I feel that confidence of the hosts right now is a key and they already beat Manchester United early this season and they dominated here in that 4-0 victory. This is just too much home dog value to pass up on. I sense an upset here as Arsenal also saw Tottenham and Manchester City move past them in the table with easy victories yesterday so this has put even more pressure on the visitors here. 10* BRENTFORD Money Line +373 |
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09-17-22 | Miami-FL +6 v. Texas A&M | Top | 9-17 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 10 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Miami Hurricanes +6 @ Texas A & M Aggies @ 9 ET - The Aggies were upset 17-14 by Appalachian State last week even though they were at home. The 3-point loss (so tight on the scoreboard) must have been a fluke upset, right? Actually, not at all! The Mountaineers kicked the Aggies ass all over the field. The final stats were insane. App St 315 yards to 186 for Texas A & M. Additionally, the Mountaineers had 22 first downs compared to just 9 for the Aggies. Are you kidding me? This is embarrassing and now the Aggies host a talented Miami team. The Hurricanes got caught looking ahead to this game as last week they were sluggish in the first half versus Southern Miss. However, they took over in the 2nd half and dominated the Golden Eagles for a big win. The Canes have the QB edge in this match-up for sure and I like the defensive line additions Miami made heading into this season. If the Aggies can't control the line of scrimmage on offense, they will sputter on that side of that ball. They are not getting good QB play and will not be able to establish the run game. All that said, really feel that A & M is going to have a helluva time trying to just win this game let alone win it by at least a TD. Outright upset would not surprise me for sure and no hesitation in grabbing the 6 points for this one as added insurance. 10* MIAMI +6 |
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09-17-22 | Phillies -104 v. Braves | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
MLB Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -105 @ Atlanta Braves @ 7:20 ET - When I first saw this match-up and went to look at the lines I was surprised what I found. I say that because I expected to be looking at an underdog price with the Phillies here. However, the line is instead in the pick'em range. But that does not keep me away. No, not at all. In fact, it actually has the opposite effect. It pulls me in. The reason is because the odds makers are smart and they are seeing this one in a similar fashion to how I see it. Even though Philly is looking up in the standings at Atlanta and even though the Braves are at home here, this is a great bounce back spot for the road team. I am going with action on pitchers, as per usual, but will mention that the expected pitchers are Aaron Nola versus Jake Odorizzi. Note that Nola has a fantastic 2.85 ERA on the road this season. As for Odorizzi, he got hit at a nearly .300 clip last month and began this month with a very rough start. The Phillies are 10-6 last 16 times they are off a loss in which they allowed 3 or more runs. Atlanta had lost 4 of last 5 before yesterday's win. 10* PHILADLEPHIA -105 |
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09-17-22 | Winnipeg v. Hamilton +7.5 | Top | 31-48 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
CFL Saturday 10* Top Play Hamilton Tiger-Cats +7.5 vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 4 ET - The Blue Bombers have the best record in the CFL but the Tiger-Cats are getting healthier and coming off a bye week. This sets up well for home underdog to give the highly touted visitor all they can handle in this one. Perhaps Winnipeg gets caught looking ahead to their upcoming bye week or still relishing their home blowout win over Saskatchewan last week. Either way, these Ti-Cats are much better than their record shows. I know they have a bad record but they entered this season 23-9 the past two seasons and they are not that bad of a football team. They will be excited here about exacting revenge too as Winnipeg has won each of the last two Grey Cup titles at the expense of Hamilton. When these teams met earlier this season, the Tiger-Cats lost by a two TD margin and they want payback here at home. They may not get that full revenge, though it would not surprise me, but they should at least get the ATS cover here which, of course, is our concern! 10* HAMILTON +7.5 |
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09-17-22 | Colorado v. Minnesota OVER 47 | Top | 7-49 | Win | 100 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
Saturday CFB 10* OVER 47 in Minnesota Golden Gophers vs Colorado Buffaloes @ 3:30 ET - This Buffaloes team seems even worse now after Air Force lost at Wyoming last night as a 2 TD favorite! Why? Because that is the same Falcons team that just blasted the Buffs last week. I do feel Colorado will score some points here. As bad as they have been offensively, the Buffaloes should at least get some garbage points against Minnesota. The Golden Gophers, justified as a huge favorite in this spot, are going to key our over as they have shown no hesitation in piling on the points in their first two games this season. Minny is averaging scoring 50 points per game thus far and Buffaloes have allowed at least 38 in each of their first two games. That said, we do not need a whole lot from Colorado here to key our win. The Buffaloes will score some as they get redemption for a home shutout at the hands of Gophers here. The fact is though that Minnesota can run all over and steamroll this very bad Buffaloes defense just like AF did last week. The Golden Gophers rank among the nations best for efficiency on offense and also rank among the fastest in terms of plays run on offense per game. That said, we have all the right variables here including a low total to work with. Look for this one to get well into the 50s as Gophers defense, as this game goes on, can't help but look ahead to Michigan State and the beginning of Big Ten slate of games next week. 10* OVER 47 in Minnesota |
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09-17-22 | Leicester v. Tottenham Hotspur OVER 3 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
EPL Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 or 3 in Tottenham vs Leicester @ 12:30 ET - These clubs have a history of plenty of goals being scored when they meet and I expect more of the same here. The last 5 meetings have seen the teams score an average of 3.6 goals. The last 3 meetings have averaged 5 goals. Tottenham is sure to score well in my opinion as they are angry off a loss in Champions League action. Also, the Hotspur are scoring an average of 2 goals per match this season. Leicester is conceding 2.7 goals per match thus far in this campaign. Leicester has averaged scoring 1.8 goals in last 4 meetings between these clubs and I expect them to make it 5 straight meetings with scoring at least 1 goals but I would not be surprised to see an angry host pile on for 2 or 3 goals in this one and that means we should be looking at 3 goals at least but more likely 4 to 5 goals in this one. 10* OVER 2.5 or 3 in Tottenham |
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09-17-22 | Botosani v. Sepsi OVER 2.25 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
Romania Liga 1 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 2 goals in Sepsi vs FC Botosani @ Noon ET - Botosani is off B2B losses each by a 2-1 margin. Sepsi is off a 2-1 win but that was the 4th straight match in which they allowed at least 1 goal. If that pattern continues here that means a 2-1 final is likely. Why? Well Sepsi is a rather heavy favorite here with good reason on the money line. On their home pitch and facing a club that has allowed 4 goals in last two matches, the hosts will take advantage. But I like what I have seen from Botosani lately in terms of creating scoring chances as well and this one should fly over the total. We have to lay some juice to have over 2 goals here but I feel it should prove well worth it with a solid win and the added value of securing a push if this one lands on only 2 though I highly doubt that outcome and fully expect 3 or more goals in this one. 10* OVER 2 in Sepsi |
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09-17-22 | AFC Bournemouth v. Newcastle United OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -125 | 6 h 18 m | Show |
EPL Saturday 10* OVER 2.5 in Newcastle United vs AFC Bournemouth @ 10 AM ET - Newcastle should roll at home here. They are known for playing well at home and are angry for the past two weeks as they have been waiting to take to the pitch after a disallowed goal (that should have counted for sure) cost them a victory. So off a scoreless draw, Newcastle will not hesitate to pour it on here at home against Bournemouth. The key to the over is Bournemouth is playing better since the managerial change. Since the departure of Scott Parker, the visitors have picked up 4 points in the table in 2 matches and are off a big 3-2 win. The problem for Bournemouth is, even though I do expect them to score at least once here, they keep allowing multiple goals in road matches. Look for a 2-1 or 3-1 type match here in my opinion. Either way, that is a winner for us! 10* OVER 2.5 in Newcastle United |
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09-16-22 | Edmonton Elks v. Saskatchewan OVER 50 | Top | 26-24 | Push | 0 | 17 h 23 m | Show |
CFL Friday 10* Top Play OVER 50 in Saskatchewan Roughriders vs Edmonton Elks @ 9:30 ET - Good weather expected in Regina for this one. The Elks offense has been looking better the way Taylor Cornelius has played recently. That means Edmonton should score plenty of points here. The Roughriders and Elks each gave up a bunch of points in their games last week. Yes, the Riders defense can be tougher when at home but, again, really like what I saw from Elks offense last week and that was against a solid Stampeders defense. Yes, the Saskatchewan offense struggled last week but the faced the best team in the league and it was a road game at Winnipeg. Compared to facing the Blue Bombers on the road, Saskatchewan will enjoy a lot more success here hosting an Elks team with horrible defense. On the season, Edmonton has allowed 34 points per game. If the oddsmakers are also correct about the 7 points spread here, that puts this game at 34-27 and totaling 61 points. Given all of the above as well as the situational value here the way Cornelius has been playing, I like the over here. Little side note here that QB Cody Fajardo's wife gave birth to a son on Tuesday. Everyone is doing well and Fajardo was back at practice yesterday and feeling good. He and the Riders offense will be able to exploit a struggling Elks defense Friday. 10* OVER 50 in Saskatchewan |
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09-16-22 | Reds v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
Friday MLB 10* OVER 8 or 8.5 in St Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds @ 8:15 ET - Action on pitchers. We don't even know for sure who the Reds pitcher is going to be and could end up being a bullpen game for Cincinnati. Even with St Louis, even though scheduled starter is Jack Flaherty, that means it might even be a heavy bullpen game for them too. Flaherty has averaged only 3 and 2/3 innings his five starts this season. He has struggled by the way and often had command issues. So this one shapes up to have plenty of runs as Cincinnati should be able to get their sticks going in this one. Yesterday's game was a 3-2 Reds win but victories have been few and far between for Cincy and Cardinals likely to bounce back with a win here. What is the significance of that as it relates to this total? Well, St Louis is 33-13 last 46 games and has scored an average of 7 runs per game their last 25 victories! In other words look for the Cards to score plenty here but I also expect the Reds to have success at the plate too given the overall uncertain pitching situation here with Flaherty struggling and the bullpen likely relied on for too much here. Reds have allowed an average of 6 runs per game in a 6-game losing streak that preceded yesterday's win. This total in the 8 or 8.5 range simply seems too low given all of the above and also very hitter-friendly weather expected at Busch Stadium for this one. 10* OVER 8 or 8.5 in St Louis |
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09-16-22 | Air Force v. Wyoming OVER 47 | Top | 14-17 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 4 m | Show |
CFB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 46.5 or 47 in Wyoming Cowboys vs Air Force Falcons @ 8 ET - Love this spot for plenty of points. It could be a little breezy early in the game but not too bad (maybe 15 mph max) and the winds will be laying down in evening hours so, even with the early start time of 6 PM local time, we'll have great weather here. The Cowboys are off a win over an FCS school, Northern Colorado, but lets talk about what their defense has done against FBS teams! Wyoming is 1-1 so far versus FBS schools but allowed at least 34 points in regulation time of each game (their lone win was in OT). Through the years the Cowboys have had some success against the triple option attack of Air Force but the Falcons have a strong offensive line and I have not been impressed with the Wyoming defense early this season. Also, two weeks ago, Air Force played Northern Iowa and piled up nearly 700 yards of offense but did allow 400 yards to the Panthers. That is an FCS team and if UNI was able to move the ball on the Falcons defense for over 20 first downs two weeks ago you know Wyoming should enjoy success as well. Of course Air Force a big favorite here for a reason! AF allowed 17 points to Northern Iowa two weeks ago but could have allowed a lot more given the yardage stats. I do expect Wyoming to score some points here as Air Force is on the road for the first time this season. However, the Cowboys will not be able to stop the Falcons attack here. The result is a ton of points. We get line value because this series has a recent history of unders and that is keeping the posted total lower than expected as good weather expected here too and that has not always been the case when these teams meet. 10* OVER 46.5 or 47 in Wyoming |
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09-16-22 | Southampton v. Aston Villa OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -116 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
EPL Friday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 in Aston Villa vs Southampton @ 3 ET - Look for at least a 2-1 match here. Southampton has had just 1 draw this season in 6 matches and the same holds true for Aston Villa. That said, can each club score a goal here? I would say emphatically that the answer is yes to that question and with low likelihood of a draw here that means at least a 2-1 final. Aston Villa allowing 1.7 goals per match this season. Southampton allowing 2 goals per match when on the road this season. Southampton off a 1-0 loss to Wolverhampton but prior to that, and dating back to last season, 13 of last 14 Saints matches across all competitions have totaled 3 or more goals. Aston Villa off a hard-fought draw with Manchester City but, prior to that, 6 of last 8 Aston Villa matches across all competitions had totaled 3 or more goals. 10* OVER 2.5 in Aston Villa |
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09-16-22 | Fulham v. Nottingham Forest OVER 2.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
EPL Friday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 in Nottingham Forest vs Fulham @ 3 ET - Nottingham Forest brought in 22 summer transfers. When your roster has that kind of turnover and you are a newly promoted side, you are going to have some trouble in the Premier League! That said, it is no surprise that Nottingham Forest has conceded an average of 2.3 goals per match on the season. Fulham is also conceding at a relatively high rate with 1.5 goals allowed per match. However, the visitors also enter this one scoring at that same rate. Hence my expectation of a high-scoring match here. The hosts will fight hard to get on the board here and are averaging 1 goal scored per match at home. At the same time, they will struggle to stop a Fulham club that has played quite well early this season and that likes to attack as well. In fact, both teams play an attacking style which is conducive to an over. Look for at least 3 goals here as the last 4 matches for Nottingham Forest across all competitions actually have totaled an average of 4 goals. As for Fulham, 5 of their 6 matches in league competition have totaled at least 3 goals and have, in fact, averaged 3.6 goals apiece. More of the same expected here. 10* OVER 2.5 in Nottingham Forest |
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09-16-22 | U Craiova 1948 v. Voluntari OVER 2 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
Romania Liga 1 Friday 10* Top Play OVER 2 in FC Voluntari vs U Craiova 1948 @ 11 *AM* ET - Both clubs were involved in matches last week that certainly could have had a lot more scoring. I do expect FC Voluntari to build off a late penalty-kick game-tying goal that allowed them to draw with FCSB last week. Now they are at home and have some momentum after salvaging that draw. As for U Craiova 1948, they have scored at least 1 goal in all but 1 of their 10 matches thus far on the season. So the visitors get at least 1 and I also do not see FC Voluntari being denied on their home pitch. The hosts have had some recent goal-scoring difficulties but now at home off rallying for the draw versus FCSB, this looks like a great spot for their goal-scoring slump to be broken. I see this match getting to 1-1 and ending at least 2-1. Each club has played 10 matches and FC Voluntari has had only 3 draws and U Craiova 1948 only 2 draws. Look for one of the two clubs to earn the full 3 points in the table in this one as the odds favor that and I expect at least a 2-1 final as a result. 10* OVER 2 in FC Voluntari |
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09-15-22 | Padres v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres @ 9:40 ET - Action on pitchers. The Padres expected to start Sean Manea and the Diamondbacks expected to start Drey Jameson. Note that Manea is 2-4 with an 8.15 ERA since the All Star break. The San Diego lefty is also 2-5 with a 6.27 ERA on the road this season. As for Arizona's Jameson, he is 5-12 with a 6.95 ERA this season and that is not even at the MLB level. In fact, this is his MLB debut and those stats are at the AAA level. Look for to get pummeled here. Regardless of the pitchers that start, again my play is action, note that Padres have scored an average of 5.3 runs per game in going 8-4 last 12 road games. The Dbacks are riding the momentum of a walk-off 3-run homer for the win last night over the Dodgers. Yes a couple of tough shutouts were handed to them by LA before that but, prior to the Los Angeles series, some big high-scoring games in Arizona. Heading into that series, the Dbacks were 15-8 last 23 home games and averaged scoring 5.7 runs per game! 9 of last 13 of those games had totaled double digits in runs scored. More of the same expected here on Thursday night. 10* OVER 9 in Arizona |
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09-15-22 | Chargers +4 v. Chiefs | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 16 h 40 m | Show |
NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Chargers +4 or +4.5 @ Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:15 ET - I am much more impressed with the Chargers win over a solid Raiders team last week then the Chiefs big win over a Cardinals team that is a mess right now. Arizona is without suspended WR D'Andre Hopkins right now and that make them a different team in big way. Also, the Cardinals defense was already a concern coming into this season so the wounded offense was going to have to carry them. The Chiefs showed that is not going to happen but now Kansas City faces a much tougher test here. The Chargers showed last week their defense can step up. Also, LA won here at KC last season so that is a confidence boost as well. I don't trust this Chiefs defense. I know the Chargers are without WR Keenan Allen this week but they still have very solid receiving options and I love having the sizable points being offered in this one. Los Angeles has lost the money only 4 times the last 20 times they have been a divisional road dog! Kansas City will be an all-out war here just win this game...let alone win it by 5 or more points! Grab the points in this one! 10* LOS ANGELES CHARGERS +4 or +4.5 |
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09-15-22 | Phillies -130 v. Marlins | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -130 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
MLB Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -130 @ Miami Marlins @ 6:40 ET - Action on pitchers. Sometimes starting pitching gets too much credit from the betting markets and, just like yesterday's match-up between Cabrera and Gibson and Tuesday's with Alcantara and Falter, this is another one of those situations. A very bad Miami team and yet Philly is a very small-priced favorite here because Lopez is on the mound for the Marlins while the Phillies have Syndergaard on the mound. First off, this will be the 2nd time this season that Phillies face Lopez and they catch him now that he is struggling a lot since they saw him early last month. In his last 3 home starts the Miami right-hander has allowed 16 earned runs in 11 and 1/3 innings! As for Syndergaard, he has been solid in his two starts against the Marlins this season. Though he enters this start struggling a bit (again leading to line value here) he should bounce back based on a match-up with the light-hitting Marlins. Remember that in August he went 3-1 and had a great 3-start stretch in there! The Phillies have won 5 straight and 30 of 45 and have a solid lineup. The Marlins entered this series off a RARE and I mean RARE explosion at that plate in second game of double header Monday as they broke out for 10 runs. Prior to this win however Miami had lost 31 of 41 games. These two teams have been going opposite directions since late July and I am happy to lay the very affordable small road favorite price here. 10* PHILADELPHIA -130 |
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09-14-22 | A's v. Rangers OVER 7.5 | Top | 8-7 | Win | 100 | 17 h 42 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 7.5 or 8 in Texas Rangers vs Oakland Athletics @ 8:05 ET - Action on pitchers. This is another case where we are getting value on the line because of market perception being much different from reality of the situation upon closer inspection. In this one, the A's are known as a light hitting team and Dunning has low ERA at home on the season and Sears has low ERA overall on the season for Oakland. That said, this looks like a dead under, right? I don't think so. When I looked into this match-up after seeing the line move from 8.5 down to as low as 7.5, I really liked what I saw here. First off, Sears has been struggling more of late including getting rocked by White Sox in his most recent start. The Athletics lefty has allowed 28 hits in 19 innings spanning his last 4 starts. As for Texas right-hander Dunning, he has allowed 29 hits in just under 20 innings of work spanning his last 4 starts! This included 2 home starts too and overall it was 15 runs (14 earned) in this span of 19 and 2/3 innings. The point is that Dunning has not been dominant of late and neither has Sears yet this game being priced like we are going to see a pitchers duel. I just don't see it even though these are not good hitting teams. The fact is that Oakland has seen 7 straight games and 10 of last 13 total at least 8 runs! In fact, those 13 games have averaged 11.4 runs per game! The Rangers last 20 games have averaged totaling 10.7 runs per game. Also, 10 of last 14 games between these teams have totaled at least 9 runs. I am confident this one will too after each team hit well again in last night's meeting. 10* OVER 7.5 or 8 in Texas |
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09-14-22 | Phillies -125 v. Marlins | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 16 h 3 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -125 @ Miami Marlins @ 6:40 ET - Action on pitchers. Sometimes starting pitching gets too much credit from the betting markets and, just like yesterday's match-up between Alcantara and Falter, this is another one of those situations. A very bad Miami team and yet Philly is a very small-priced favorite here because Cabrera is on the mound for the Marlins while the Phillies have Gibson on the mound. First off, this will be the 2nd time this season that Phillies face Cabrera and they catch him now that he is struggling a little bit since they saw him early last month. In his last two home starts the Miami right-hander has allowed 9 earned runs in 11 and 1/3 innings! As for Gibson, he struggled against the Marlins in his most recent start and September has been a rough two starts for him. I see payback coming for him here against the light-hitting Marlins. Remember that in August he went 3-1 with a 2.30 ERA! The Phillies have won 4 straight and 29 of 44 and have a solid lineup. The Marlins entered this series off a RARE and I mean RARE explosion at that plate in second game of double header Monday as they broke out for 10 runs. Prior to this win however Miami had lost 31 of 41 games. These two teams have been going opposite directions since late July and I am happy to lay the very affordable small road favorite price here. 10* PHILADELPHIA -125 |
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09-14-22 | Braves v. Giants OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 7.5 in San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves @ 3:45 ET - Action on this play. Regardless of the starting pitchers I am going over here but it is because of the expected starting pitching match-up here that we are getting phenomenal line value. To the naked eye, Charlie Morton facing Carlos Rodon looks like a pitchers duel. But look closer and you see something much different. Morton actually has struggled in all 4 of his road starts since the All Star break. He has compiled a 6.85 ERA on the road in the 2nd half of the season! As for Rodon, yes he has great numbers this season but Braves have a great record against left-handed starters this season. Part of the reason is they hit lefties very well with a .269 batting average and .457 slugging percentage. Out of 30 MLB teams, those numbers are good for 2nd in the majors and 3rd in the majors, respectively. I know Rodon can be tough but the Braves are 24-8 last 32 games and have averaged scoring 6 runs per game during this stretch. Giants are not known for high-scoring ways but still had scored an average of 6.5 runs per game in winning 4 straight home games before yesterday's low-scoring loss. Look for runs here from both clubs in this series finale as it surprises under players just looking at the names of starting pitchers. Action on this play as per usual. 10* OVER 7.5 in San Francisco |
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09-13-22 | Royals v. Twins OVER 8 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 18 h 40 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 8 or 8.5 in Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals @ 7:40 ET - Action on pitchers. But will start the analysis there as expected starters are Kris Bubic and Joe Ryan. Note that Bubic is having a very rough season and also got rocked at Minnesota in his most recent start versus Twins. Ryan has much better numbers than Bubic on the season but has allowed 9 earned runs in last 9 innings spanning his last two starts. Also, KC seeing him for 4th time this season and they are hitting him a little harder each and every time. Royals have scored an average of 5 runs per game last 13 games overall and 5 runs per game last 6 road games. Twins, before a 4-1 loss to the Guardians Sunday, had been scoring well in home games and were averaging 6 runs per game in last 8 home games. Lot of value here with a rather low total for this one and I am taking this match-up as my top total for the day and expecting double digits in runs scored. 10* OVER 8 or 8.5 in Minnesota |
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09-13-22 | Phillies +121 v. Marlins | Top | 2-1 | Win | 121 | 18 h 47 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies +121 @ Miami Marlins @ 6:40 ET - Action on pitchers. Sometimes starting pitching gets too much credit from the betting markets and this is one of those situations. A very bad Miami team is a mid-range priced favorite here because Alcantara is on the mound for the Marlins while the Phillies have Falter on the mound. First off, this will be the 6th time this season that Phillies face Alcantara and they are starting to hit him harder. In his last two starts against them the Miami right-hander has allowed 9 runs (7 earned) on 16 hits. As for Falter, he is 4-1 with a 3.38 ERA since the All Star break. The Phillies have won 3 straight and 28 of 43 and have a solid lineup. The Marlins off a RARE and I mean RARE explosion at that plate in most recent game as they broke out for 10 runs. Prior to this win however Miami had lost 31 of 41 games. These two teams have been going opposite directions since late July and I am happy to grab the underdog price here. 10* PHILADELPHIA +121 |
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09-12-22 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-0 | Loss | -120 | 17 h 13 m | Show |
MLB Monday 10* OVER 8.5 or 9 in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 9:40 ET - Action on pitchers. I like the over regardless of starting pitchers but will quickly mention them here. This one jumped off the page at me because Tyler Anderson is 14-3 with a 2.73 ERA this season and Ryne Nelson pitched 7 scoreless innings in his MLB debut yet the opening total on this was a 9. That tells you a lot right there and the fact is there is more than meets the eye at first glance here. First off, Nelson had a 5.43 ERA in AAA ball this season so lets not get carried away after just 1 start. Don't be surprised if he struggles with this potent Dodgers lineup in his 2nd start. He won't be the first rookie pitcher that happened to and won't be the last. A lot of times these guys come up and have a great first start but then struggle in the 2nd. This is what I expect with Nelson here. As for Anderson, he has been a little more hittable of late and this has been particularly true on the road. Other than a strong start at Miami (and the Marlins are so bad at the plate!) Anderson allowed 10 earned runs on 21 hits in 18 innings spanning his last 3 road starts. Now he is at Arizona and the Diamondbacks are 15-8 in 23 home games since the All-Star break and averaged about 6 runs scored per game during this stretch. Overall, the Dbacks have allowed 7 runs per game in their current 1-4 stretch entering this game. The Dodgers are on a 6-2 run entering this game and have scored an average of 7.6 runs per game last 8 games! 10* OVER 8.5 or 9 in Arizona |
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09-12-22 | Broncos -6.5 v. Seahawks | Top | 16-17 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 45 m | Show |
NFL Monday 10* Top Play Denver Broncos -6.5 @ Seattle Seahawks @ 8:15 ET - I have said it before and I will say it again here. Generally speaking, the odds makers are the sharpest people around. The Broncos come into this season projected to reach double digits in wins. The Seahawks win total projection is just 5.5 victories. Seattle's odds to win the Super Bowl indicate you have a better chance of taking your money and buying a lottery ticket. The Broncos odds for winning Super Bowl show only 5 teams with lower odds. Those 5 teams entering the season were Bills, Chiefs, Bucs, Packers and Rams. Those 5 teams went 67-17 last season. Pretty elite company, wouldn't you say? Yes, a lot of coaching changes in Denver and a new QB in Russell Wilson but I would not be surprised to see it all click right out of the gate. Love the Broncos defense and they should enjoy success here against a Seahawks offense led by Geno Smith. There is a reason Smith has not been a regular starter in the NFL in about 8 years! That said, I have the better defense (Seattle has regressed a lot on that side of the ball), better offense (Russell Wilson over Geno Smith takes this to elite level of edges), and the better overall team that comes into this season much more confident than a Seattle team that knows the writing is on the wall for a full-on rebuild this season. Not a big fan of laying points on the road but this is one of those very special situations that has "road rout" written all over it. Wilson will not hold back against his former team here. Broncos should enjoy piling it on here. 10* DENVER -6.5 |
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09-12-22 | Universitatea Cluj v. Mioveni OVER 2 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
Romania Liga 1 Monday 10* Top Play OVER 2 +115 in Universitatea Cluj vs CS Mioveni @ 11 AM ET - These are two of the lowest scoring clubs thus far this season but things are on the cusp of changing and hence we get value here with the plus money available at over 2 goals on this one. CS Mioveni is off their first victory of the season and will bring momentum to this match as a result. As for Universitatea Cluj, they are still in search of their first victory of the season and will give a little extra on the attack in this one as a result. The 1-1 draw that Universitatea Cluj had last week easily should have had a lot more scoring and this is another reason we are getting even more line value here. There were missed opportunities both ways that should have resulted in a match totaling more like 4 goals rather than just 2. We take advantage here because CS Mioveni also scored the prior week as well in a 1-1 draw and their confidence is on the rise while I know the hosts are going to be on the attack here as they see this as a great shot to get that first victory of the season. Look for at least a 2-1 final in this one. 10* OVER 2 +115 in Universitatea Cluj |
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09-11-22 | Bucs v. Cowboys UNDER 50.5 | Top | 19-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 7 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play UNDER 50.5 in Dallas Cowboys vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 8:20 ET - Last year's meeting totaled 60 points but the total on this one has been dropping this week and it is with good reason. Both teams have question marks at WR and offensive line. Yes we all know about Dak Prescott and, of course, Tom Brady. Certainly two very strong QB's matched up in this one. But Cowboys lost two of their top wide receivers from last year. Also, another Dallas receiver is injured and will miss this game so you only have Lamb as the one proven WR target for the Cowboys. That said, you can guess who Tampa Bay's secondary will focus on here! The Bucs offense is not looking like a juggernaut entering this season either and the Cowboys defense is a little better than people realize. On the other side of the field, the Bucs defense should thrive under HC Todd Bowles as he was their defensive coordinator the past 3 seasons and helped develop the unit as it made significant strides. With him now taking over as head coach, TB might be a little more defensive-minded and also more conservative on offense - even with Brady under center. The Cowboys allowed an average of just 19 points their final 7 games of last season including the playoff loss to 49ers. The Bucs won 8 of 9 games including post-season action before losing to the eventual Super Bowl champion Rams. They allowed just 17 points per game in that 8-1 run. With both teams a little better defensively than people realize plus each team having some questions on offense, you can see why I like the under here. 10* UNDER 50.5 in Dallas |
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09-11-22 | Giants v. Titans -5.5 | Top | 21-20 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 11 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Tennessee Titans -5.5 vs New York Giants @ 4:25 ET - Similar to my play on the Bills Thursday, here I am playing on a team that has been so hungry to take the field again after an ultra-disappointing playoff finish. Tennessee earned the #1 seed in the AFC last season yet lost to the Bengals at home in a turnover-filled affair. The Titans have waited a long time to make up for that effort and the Giants will prove to be no match here. New York's Daniel Jones had a solid rookie season but has since had B2B mediocre seasons and will not be able to match Ryan Tannehill for the Titans here. Look at the numbers that Tannehill has produced the last 4 seasons including the last 3 with Tennessee and compare that to what Jones has done the last two seasons. This is a Giants team that has not won more than 6 games in a season since 2016! Yet this line is saying Titans are only a couple points better than New York on a neutral field. I say no way that is the case and I expect Jones' struggles to continue in a tough road environment here and he will be mistake-prone while Tannehill bounces back with a strong effort at home after January's disappointing playoff performance ended the Titans season earlier than expected. I truly like to take points rather than lay points in the NFL generally speaking but this one is just too much of a mismatch as we have the better defense and better overall team and the home field edge. That said, I am looking for a win by at least a full TD here for the Titans. 10* TENNESSEE -5.5 |
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09-11-22 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 10.5 | Top | 12-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 10.5 in Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 3:10 ET - Action on pitchers. Just like the weather today, the bats will again heat up in Denver and that is why I like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers. I had my eyes on yesterday's match-up because it involved couple hurlers likely to struggle but I stayed away from the game as I knew the weather was going to be very chilly and ugly and it was. The game ended just 4-1 with temperatures hovering around just 50 degrees. Today the temp at first pitch should be 70 and by games end it is likely to have hit 80 degrees. Unlike yesterday, bright sunshine and the ball will carry like crazy in the thin air here. Certainly I know Zac Gallen has an incredible scoreless innings streak going. I am well aware as it is actually the 8th longest of all-time. I am here to tell you it will end today and I think Dbacks should have pushed him back to Monday at home, even against the Dodgers, instead of having to pitch in the best hitters park in baseball today. I know one of the games in his scoreless streak was actually here BUT he faced the Rockies twice in early July and they got to him for 7 earned runs in 10 innings of work. They will hit him again today as they build off yesterday's win and Cron's huge homer. As for the Dbacks bats, they will have no problems with Ryan Feltner here. He has struggled overall this season as well as against Arizona and they again get to him here. No matter the pitching match-up, the bats come back to life in the warmer weather today and I will take advantage of this lower total at Coors Field. 10* OVER 10.5 in Colorado |
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09-11-22 | CS U Craiova v. CFR Cluj OVER 2 | Top | 0-2 | Push | 0 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
Romania Liga 1 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 2 in CFR Cluj vs Universitatea Craiova @ 2:30 ET - Universitatea Craiova is off a 4-3 victory over Farul. That was a huge win for them and a big confidence boost. Yes their other recent matches had been lower-scoring but that had a lot to do with facing Hermannstadt and FC Botosani - each of whom had been trending under at the time. That said, I really like the value here with over 2 goals in this one. CFR Cluj is off a 1-1 draw Thursday in UEFA Europa Conference League action and comes into this one hungry to build off a 4-0 win in their most recent Romania Liga 1 action. The last two matches in league action involving CFR Cluj have each totaled at least 4 goals and their matches this season are averaging 3.1 goals apiece. Solid line value here with this total at 2 goals as CFR Cluj has been shutout only once this season but has scored an average of 2 goals in its other 6 matches. Similarly, Universitatea Craiova has been shutout twice this season but is averaging scoring 2 goals in its other 6 matches. Having just played Thursday I might be worried about CFR Cluj here but the fact they are at home and coming off B2B high-scoring matches likely is going to lead to more of the same here and, as hosts, they will dig deep for all the energy they need in what should be another wide-open affair. 10* OVER 2 in CFR Cluj |
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09-11-22 | Nationals v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
MLB Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 -140 vs Washington Nationals @ 1:05 ET - Action on pitchers. This game might start later than expected due to rain in Philly early in the day today but I do expect them to get this one in. Nationals lost again to Phillies yesterday and are now 11-45 in divisional games this season! Also, 71 of Washington's 91 losses by at least 2 runs this season! Phillies the much better team, at home, and have dominated the Nationals this season. This is why I don't care who the pitchers are but I will mention that Sanchez is 2-5 this season plus he has a combined 5.61 ERA his past two seasons. Also, Nola has absolutely been dominant in 3 of his last 4 home starts and that includes one against the Nationals. Long-term he has a phenomenal W-L record in his home starts. The home team rolls here and wins big no matter who is on the mound in this one. Nats, as noted above, have lost incredible 80% of divisional games this season and nearly 80% of their losses by 2 or more runs this season. Another home blowout here. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -140 |
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09-10-22 | Baylor v. BYU -2.5 | Top | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 23 h 41 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play BYU Cougars -2.5 vs Baylor Bears @ 10:15 ET - Both teams played weaker foes last week but, still, you could tell by the lines that the tougher tests wa for BYU on the road at South Florida and yet they completely steamrolled the Bulls including jumping out to a 38-0 lead! Baylor hosted an FCS Albany team so they were not tested at all. The Bears lost nearly half their defensive starters from last season and the Cougars return one of the most experienced teams in the country. Not only that, this game is at home in the thin air of Provo, UT and this is another factor favoring Brigham Young in a big way. The Bears beat the Cougars last season but that game was at Baylor and BYU was banged up on defense entering that one. This most certainly is not the case here and we get the more veteran team in an early-season game at home and laying a short number. Don't let the line fool you. Some may be surprised to see a top ten team getting a field goal playing a team that barely has cracked the top 25. Trust me, is not a mistake. Lay it! This is Cougars first home game of season and they only last ONCE at home the past two seasons combined! As for the Bears, they lost twice on the road last season and lost all 5 of their road games the year before. This is still a major test for them even though they have improved a lot since that 2020 disaster. Still too much to ask for them early in the season in this one and feel strongly that Cougars win this solidly at home. 10* BYU -2.5 |
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09-10-22 | Calgary v. Edmonton Elks OVER 49.5 | Top | 56-28 | Win | 100 | 16 h 50 m | Show |
CFL Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 49.5 in Edmonton Elks vs Calgary Stampeders @ 8 ET - Spectacular weather expected in Edmonton for this one and both teams will be airing it out. I realize last week's game between these teams in Calgary totaled only 44 points. However, turnovers were the story. That kept points off the board and I do no expect a repeat here. As Elks were turning it over on downs, etc. but will be stronger here at home. At the same time, they are not going to be able to shut down this Stampeders offense. The end result is this one flies over the total as Elks so hungry for that first home win of the season but their defense is always a concern. Edmonton scores well here but just can't keep Calgary from doing the same and I expect a high-scoring shootout on a day more like summer than autumn in the province of Alberta this evening. 10* OVER 49.5 in Edmonton |
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09-10-22 | Reds v. Brewers OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds @ 7:15 ET - Action on pitchers. One of the reasons for that is you really can't trust either of these scheduled starters to go very long in this one. Anderson has struggled and hardly pitched. Houser also has disappointed and has hardly pitched in recent weeks. So if those guys go (I really don't care) that should get us rolling here with some early runs. The key factor is the potency with which I expect the teams to hit here. Reds have scored an average of 7 runs in last 10 victories but allowed an average of 6.5 runs last 13 losses. The Brewers are 6-2 last 8 home games and scored an average of 6 runs in the 6 victories. Milwaukee has allowed a ridiculous average of 7 runs in last dozen losses. In other words, no matter the victor here, you can see why I am expecting runs from the Brewers as well as Cincinnati in this one. 10* OVER 8.5 in Milwaukee |
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09-10-22 | Nationals v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
MLB Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 -125 vs Washington Nationals @ 6:05 ET - Action on pitchers. Nationals lost 5 to 3 to Phillies yesterday are now 11-44 in divisional games this season! Also, against lefties, the Nats are 14-36 this season! 70 of Washington's 90 losses by at least 2 runs this season! Phillies the much better team, at home, and have dominated the Nationals this season. This is why I don't care who the pitchers are but I will mention that Fedde is 4-9 with a 6.26 ERA in night games this season. Also, Suarez has an ERA below 2.50 since early July! The home team rolls here and wins big no matter who is on the mound in this one. Nats, as noted above, have lost incredible 80% of divisional games this season and nearly 80% of their losses by 2 or more runs this season. Home blowout here. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -125 |
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09-10-22 | Saskatchewan +7.5 v. Winnipeg | Top | 20-54 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
CFL Saturday 10* Top Play Saskatchewan Roughriders +7.5 @ Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 5 ET - The Riders actually outgained the Bombers by about 100 yards last week! Saskatchewan lost the game by only 2 points and got the cover but one could argue, and correctly by the way, that the Rough Riders should have won the game outright! Not saying they will this week as it will be tougher with this one being at Winnipeg but still do think it is going to be again be tough for the Blue Bombers to cover. This one now is at 7.5 points and it offers huge value to the hungry underdog as Winnipeg continues to have a target on their backs courtesy of their torrid start this season. This is also a rivalry game and just too much value with the points here. 10* SASKATCHEWAN +7.5 |
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09-10-22 | Colorado v. Air Force OVER 49.5 | Top | 10-41 | Win | 100 | 16 h 58 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 49.5 in Air Force Falcons vs Colorado Buffaloes @ 3:30 ET - Love this spot for plenty of points. The Buffaloes just got run all over by TCU in a 38-13 loss. The Buffs just could not stop the Horned Frogs on the ground and now face the triple option attack of Air Force and the Falcons have a strong offensive line. Air Force played Northern Iowa last week and piled up nearly 700 yards of offense but did allow 400 yards to the Panthers! The Buffaloes did move the ball some versus TCU with each of their quarterbacks and if UNI was able to move the ball on the Falcons defense for over 20 first downs you know Colorado should enjoy success as well. Of course Air Force a big favorite here for a reason! AF allowed 17 points to Northern Iowa last week and could have allowed a lot more given the yardage stats but the point is that even just that puts this game at 34-17 given the spread on this one. I am expecting much more than 17 from Colorado here in a bounce back effort for their offense after struggling with TCU. However, the Buffs will not be able to stop the Falcons attack here. The result is a ton of points. 10* OVER 49.5 in Air Force |
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09-10-22 | Petrolul 52 v. Hermannstadt OVER 2 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 104 | 5 h 54 m | Show |
Romania Liga 1 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 2 in Hermannstadt vs Petrolul Ploiesti @ 8 AM ET - Look for plenty of goals here. Hermannstadt is the only team in the league without a loss thus far. Of course Petrolul Ploiesti is well aware of this and wants to be the first to put a blemish on that record. Petrolul Ploiesti is off B2B wins and won the matches by a combined score of 5 to 3. So I am looking for goals here because the hosts are scoring an average of 1.4 goals per match this season and, as noted above, still without a loss. I just don't see a red hot Petrolul Ploiesti club being held off the score sheet here. But at the same time, you know the hosts will battle back on their home pitch. I am looking for a 2-1 final here and at least a 1-1 match so feel we have good value going over the low total here given the situation. 10* OVER 2 in Hermannstadt |
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09-09-22 | White Sox v. A's OVER 7.5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 17 h 56 m | Show |
MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 7.5 in Oakland A's vs Chicago White Sox @ 9:40 ET - Action on pitchers. The A's got rocked yesterday but have been scoring some runs of late. The lost 14-2 yesterday but had averaged 4.5 runs per game in their 8 games before the ugly loss. That said, this total at 7.5 sure seems a little too low. Oakland has seen 6 of their last 9 games total at least 9 runs. In fact, those games have totaled an average of 11 runs per game! The White Sox enter this one having won 7 of last 9 games and their last 10 games have averaged 9.5 runs totaled per game. Looking for at least 8 runs here regardless of the pitchers but I will touch on them here. Kaprielian has given up a lot of hits as only one start in August was solid and the other 5 combined he was hit at over a .300 clip. As for Giolito, he has been getting hit quite hard and remember in late May his ERA was 2.63 and it now about double that on the season! The point is that he has regressed all season and I look for the A's to respond after taking a thrashing yesterday and they will do some damage at the plate here today. White Sox bats stay hot too. 10* OVER 7.5 in Oakland |
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09-09-22 | BC v. Montreal +3.5 | Top | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 19 h 45 m | Show |
CFL Friday 10* Top Play Montreal Alouettes +3.5 vs BC Lions @ 7:30 ET - Love the angles here. BC is just not the same team now without Rourke at QB. He will be out for a bit after surgery on his foot. As for QB O'Connor, he is just not at the same level. So BC went out and got Adams from Montreal and he might play some here immediately against his former team. Guess who knows QB Adams and his tendencies very, very well? The Alouettes of course. That said, this is a tough match-up for the Lions even though they are off a bye week. The QB position is a major question mark for BC while Montreal is very much settled on Harris at QB and he beat out Adams for the top spot with the Als for a reason. The Alouettes had recent key wins over Hamilton and also handed Winnipeg their only loss of the season but then lost last week at home so you know Montreal is going to be ready to roll here. This is a great situational spot for them as Lions make their longest road trip of the season across the country too. Again, I know that BC is off a bye week but this is still not a great spot for them. Also, note that Lions have played only 4 road games so far this season while others have played as many as 7 games. The home dog plus the points gets it done here. 10* MONTREAL +3.5 |
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09-09-22 | Red Sox v. Orioles OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 51 m | Show |
MLB Friday 10* OVER 8.5 in Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:05 ET - Action on pitchers. Great value here with both teams coming off low-scoring losses Wednesday. Now this pitching match-up is conducive to an over but I like both lineups to bounce back regardless of the starting pitchers. I will start there though by mentioning that Voth has a 4.70 ERA and .313 BAA in home games and a 6.70 ERA and a .316 BAA in night games this season. Bello is 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA in night games this season. Bello is getting hit at a .321 clip so far this season. As far as the strength of these two lineups, Red Sox were 5-2 last 7 games and scoring an average of 6 runs per game in that 7-game stretch before a tough 1-0 loss. Boston's last 8 games before the loss Wednesday had averaged 11 runs per game. Baltimore had won 5 of 8 before their 4-1 loss Wednesday. In those 8 games they averaged 4.5 runs scored per game. The Orioles will hit here at home but the Red Sox resume their stronger hitting too. The result is that this one should fly over the rather low total. 10* OVER 8.5 in Baltimore |
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09-09-22 | UTA Arad v. Botosani OVER 2 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
Romania Liga 1 Friday 10* Top Play OVER 2 in FC Botosani vs UTA @ 11:45 AM ET - UTA off a disappointing 1-1 draw at home versus Chindia Targoviste. The visitors will come out being aggressive on the attack here as a result. FC Botosani also off a disappointing 2-1 loss at Petrolul Ploiesti as they did not score until the extra time in that one and so spent much of the match "chasing" to get back in it. The hosts will be more aggressive on their home pitch here as a result and look to jump out and get the early lead rather than vice versa. FC Botosani had begun the season with decent goal-scoring and then hit a rough patch. Don't be surprised if that late goal at Petrolul Ploiesti gets them going in terms of some confidence again in finding the back of the net. As for UTA, 7 of their 9 matches have totaled at least 2 goals and I feel very comfortable with the over 2 here as a result but fully expecting 3 or more given the circumstances. 10* OVER 2 in FC Botosani |
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09-08-22 | Bills -2 v. Rams | Top | 31-10 | Win | 100 | 39 h 17 m | Show |
NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills -2 @ Los Angeles Rams @ 8:20 ET - I feel the Bills are going to be on a mission all season long and it starts tonight in a game they thought they would have in February. Indeed, were it not for a miraculous Chiefs win over the Bills January in a wild one, Buffalo would have met Cincinnati the next week. The way those teams match up, Bills would have prevailed over Bengals - in my opinion - and would have then faced LA in the Super Bowl. So it has been a long wait for the Bills but now they do get their shot at the Rams here in September instead and I fully expect they will make the most of it. Yes, maybe it seems hard to fade the defending champs on their home turf but this Buffalo team is so strong. I also like the fact LA lost some veteran players on defense. The Bills have a very balanced offense. Also, on defense, the Bills were one of the top teams in the league against the pass and Rams rely heavily on the pass on offense. The rushing attack of Los Angeles is not a strength so this match-up favors the Bills too. Great pass protection for Buffalo too so that helps negate a Rams strength of last season - their pass rush. I love this match-up and the hunger of the road team and it is not often you are going to be able to get the Bills at such an affordable price this season. Lay the very small number here and look for the Bills to win by at least a field goal though I truly expect a win by at least a TD here. 10* BUFFALO -2 |
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09-08-22 | Marlins v. Phillies -125 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -125 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
MLB Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -125 vs Miami Marlins @ 6:45 ET - The Marlins have lost 9 straight. The Phillies are 46-27 against teams with a losing record this season. Miami is 24-54 against teams with a winning record this season. As a result, I like this play regardless of the starting pitching match-up and will go action on the pitchers. But now I'll mention them here. Alcantara has had a great season and that is what is helping to keep the money line price so low on the Phillies here. The key though is the Marlins right-hander is starting to fade here at the end of the season. It all started with a recent match-up against the Phillies in which he allowed 4 earned runs. In fact, he has now allowed 4 or more earned runs in each of his last 3 starts! The fact the Marlins are such a poor hitting team and Alcantara has been struggling in recent road outings means superb value here with the hosts. Phillies are expected to start Gibson here and he is 7-3 with a 3.71 ERA in his 15 home games this season. He also went 3-1 with a 2.30 ERA in his August starts. This looks like a mismatch even though the price is low so I am definitely going top play here and, again, my play is action here in terms of the pitchers. Lay the small money line price with the home team. 10* PHILADELPHIA -125 |
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09-08-22 | Nationals v. Cardinals OVER 8 | Top | 11-6 | Win | 103 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 7.5 in St Louis Cardinals vs Washington Nationals @ 1:15 ET - Action on pitchers. Nationals bullpen imploded in last night's 6-5 loss as they gave up 5 runs in bottom of 9th. Now Josiah Gray the expected starter and he has walked 9 while striking out just 5 in his last 10 innings. Gray allowed 6 earned runs in most recent start and that was 2nd time in last 4 road starts that he has been charged with 6 earned runs. Gray also allowed 4 earned runs in 5 innings in his most recent start versus Cardinals and that was at home. Now he faces them at St Louis where there are known to hit better than on the road. The Cards expected starter here is Adam Wainwright. He generally pitches better at home than on the road. So I definitely respect this factor but this is also what is keeping this total too low in my opinion. Keep in mind, regardless of starting pitchers here I like this total. The Nationals bullpen showed what they are capable of last night in the ugly blown game. Also, the Washington lineup has produced 5 or more runs in 7 of last 9 games! That is not bad at all and I feel the Nats will find a way again in this one but they will not be able to slow down the Cardinals! The Cards have won 11 of 15 and scored an average of 7 runs per game in those 11 victories. More of the same here. 10* OVER 7.5 in St Louis |