Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-05-23 | Mets v. Orioles OVER 9 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 9 or 9.5 in Baltimore Orioles vs New York Mets @ 7:05 ET - On the season and, in particular, of late both these pitchers have struggled in the situation they are in now. Kyle Gibson for the Orioles has struggled at home and Tylor Megill has struggled on the road and again their recent numbers home/away, respectively, are even worse than their full season numbers which are, to say the least, bad enough! Gibson has a 5.55 ERA at home this season and opponents have hit .300 against him in his home outings. Megill has an 8.00 ERA on the road this season with opponents hitting .345 against him as a traveler. This one should get ugly and the Mets bullpen is struggling and, in fact, both teams could again give it up as this game goes on. Yesterday's game was just 2-0 entering the 6th inning and then the teams exploded for a final score of 10-3. The Orioles have now gone 14-7 since the All-Star break and scored 5.4 runs per game in their last 10 at home. 6 of last 7 games at Camden Yards have totaled at least 10 runs. The Mets are 9-11 since the All-Star break and have scored 6 runs per game in last 7 wins and allowed 7 runs per game in last 11 losses. Don't be surprised, given the above, if we see a 7-6 type final in this one. 10* OVER 9 or 9.5 in Baltimore |
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08-05-23 | Montreal v. Hamilton +3 | Top | 27-14 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
CFL Saturday 10* Top Play Hamilton Tiger-Cats +3 vs Montreal Alouettes @ 7 ET - We get line value here because Hamilton QB Bo Levi-Mitchell is out again with injury. The fact is they have an adequate back-up option at quarterback plus they got good production out of their wide receivers last week. Also, their secondary looked much better than the secondary of the Alouettes last week which, by the way, is dealing with injury issues too. In terms of pass protection, the Ti-Cats also rate an edge over the Als. Factoring all this in plus the home field edge and the revenge factor, this looks like a great spot to back the Tiger-Cats. Note that Montreal crushed them here at Hamilton earlier this season so payback is on their minds here. This is a key game in the East Division race and I feel the home team is vastly under-valued here because of the Mitchell injury. Their defense will come to play just as I predicted the Stampeders defense would show up at home against the undefeated Argonauts last night and they did just that in the 20-7 win. This is truly another great home dog situation. 10* HAMILTON +3 |
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08-05-23 | Royals v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 6-9 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
MLB Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 -115 vs Kansas City Royals @ 6:05 ET - Sanchez has a 2.66 ERA this season. Marsh has a 6.75 ERA this season. I know the Royals are hot and snuck out another win yesterday. But 6 of their 7 victories in their current 7-game winning streak came at out. They will not win on the road again here and most of their losses this season have been by at least 2 runs. Marsh is 0-5 this season and I know Sanchez is also winless this season. However, Sanchez has deserved much better and he should help the Phillies bounce back strong here. Regardless of the starting pitching, in fact, this one will be all Philly as I challenge KC to win B2B road games. I just do not see that happening and the home team rolls here. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -115 |
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08-05-23 | Dinamo Bucuresti v. Universitatea Cluj OVER 2.25 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -50 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
Rotation #206897: Romania Liga 1: Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 2 -140 in Universitatea Cluj vs Dinamo @ 2:30 ET - The value of a 2 here is huge and is worth the extra juice. Universitatea Cluj is off a 4-3 win and they have allowed at least 1 goal in 4 straight matches and have allowed an average of 2 goals per match over this stretch. Dinamo has allowed 11 goals in losing 4 straight matches and this was preceded by scoring 6 goals in a huge upset win. Before getting shutout by Sepsi last week, Dinamo did scored an average of 2.2 goals per match in their 4 preceding matches. I also liked what I saw from Dinamo last week as they certainly had great quality chances and deserved to get on the scoresheet. They make up for that this week and make the net ripple but the problem is they can not slow down anyone and their struggles defensively continue. Looking for at least a 2-1 final here as a result. 10* OVER 2 -140 in Universitatea Cluj |
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08-05-23 | U Craiova 1948 v. Botosani OVER 2.25 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -101 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
Rotation #206905: Romania Liga 1: Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 2 -145 in FC Botosani vs U Craiova 1948 @ 11:30 AM ET - 5 straight FC Botosani matches have totaled at least 2 goals and those 5 matches have averaged 3.2 goals apiece. The value of a 2 here is huge and is worth the extra juice. FC Botosani is off a 2-2 draw last week and U Craiova is off a 4-3 loss. The visitors enter this one with 5 of last 7 matches totaling at least 2 goals and those 7 matches have averaged 3.4 goals apiece. I know these clubs had low-scoring matches in all 3 meetings last season, including play-out round, but the hosts enter this one allowing at least 1 goal in 5 straight and the visitors enter this one allowing at least 1 goal in 7 straight. Odds suggest a 2-1 type match here! 10* OVER 2 -145 in FC Botosani |
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08-04-23 | Toronto v. Calgary +9 | Top | 7-20 | Win | 100 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
CFL Friday 10* Top Play Calgary Stampeders +8.5/9/9.5 vs Toronto Argonauts @ 9 ET - This is just too many points. I know Toronto is undefeated this season and they are the defending champs. Of course this also means they have a target on their backs right now. The Stampeders are still seeking their first home win of the season. When you consider those factors you have a great set up for a monumental upset here. Even if we don't get that huge upset I look for the points to be enough for the cover here as I just do not see the Argonauts winning this game by more than a 1-score margin on the road. Calgary has played in only 2 games this season that resulted in the Stampeders losing by a margin of more than 7 points and one of those was way back in Week One! Also, the Argos were dominated statistically by Saskatchewan last week and that game was at Toronto. The Riders outgained them by a 2 to 1 ratio. We have great line value here as a result and the Stamps are going to have their ears pinned back for this one! 10* CALGARY + points |
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08-04-23 | Rockies v. Cardinals OVER 9.5 | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in St Louis Cardinals vs Colorado Rockies @ 8:15 ET - The Cardinals Wainwright, as I have mentioned before, has a couple things going against him now. He lost his long-time batterymate when Yadier Molina retired and he is now just way past his prime and on the downhill slide to retirement. He is having a very rough season and has a 7.18 ERA on the season. His counterpart tonight is Flexen going for the Rockies and the right-hander is also having a very rough season. Flexen is 0-5 with an 8.08 ERA this season. He accumulated nearly all of those stats with the Mariners this season so it is not like his numbers are inflated because of Coors Field. He has only made one start since coming to Colorado. Also, the bullpens are two of the worst in the majors this season based on ERA stats so that also favors the over here. 6 of last 9 Rockies games have totaled at least 11 runs and that included 2 of 3 on the road and those 3 most recent Colorado road games have averaged 12 runs apiece. The Cardinals have not scored great of late but had averaged about 5 runs per game in 11 home games since All-Star break before coming off a 5-3 home loss to Twins yesterday. I look for them to get right back on track here. 10* OVER 9.5 in St Louis |
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08-04-23 | Royals v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
MLB Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 -110 vs Kansas City Royals @ 7:05 ET - Yes, the Royals have won 6 straight. However, all those wins were at home. Philadelphia is a huge favorite here with good reason and, of course, we will not lay 2 to 1 odds on the Phillies here. Where the line value is, however, is that on the run line the Phillies are available in a pick'em price range of -110. That will get us involved here! Nola, throughout his career, has been known for pitching very well in Philly. As for Lyles, he is 2-12 this season and has a 6.15 ERA on the year. The Royals are 14-39 on the road this season and 17-49 against teams with a winning record! The Phillies are winners in 6 of last 9 overall and 6 of last 9 at home also. Additionally, the Royals 75 losses have included 62 by at least a 2-run margin. Look for the Phillies to roll big here at home. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -110 |
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08-04-23 | Hermannstadt v. CS U Craiova OVER 2 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -116 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
Rotation #206921: Romania Liga 1 Friday 10* Top Play OVER 2 in Universitatea Craiova vs Hermannstadt @ 2:30 ET - The value of a 2 is huge in Romanian Football and note that last week all 8 matches totaled at least 2 goals. That was week 3 of the season and note that in the first two weeks of the season 6 of the 8 matches totaled at least 2 goals each week. Considering that fact plus the fact that Universitatea Craiova's manager is expecting an offensive-minded match here and you have the recipe for an over. I know that Universitatea Craiova has conceded just 1 goal so far this season but Hermannstadt has been scoring well and has confidence. Also, Universitatea Craiova is at home here and the manager expects an aggressive approach from the visitor so their planning for this match is heavily focused on exploiting weaknesses via an aggressive counterattack. Hermannstadt has scored 5 goals the past two weeks but has also conceded at least 1 goal in all 3 matches thus far. The visitors also have not had a draw in any of their matches this season and this all factors into why I am expecting at least a 2-1 final here. 10* OVER 2 in Universitatea Craiova |
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08-04-23 | CSMS Iasi v. UTA Arad -114 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 55 m | Show |
Rotation #206914: Romania Liga 1 Friday 10* Top Play UTA Money Line -114 vs Poli Iasi @ 11:30 AM ET - Poli Iasi off the huge upset win over Farul last week. UTA's manager was previously the manager of Iasi so you know this match is of particular importance to him. UTA also seeking their first victory of the season and they are catching Iasi at the perfect time. The visitors will end up flat after that big upset win and lets not forget they lost their first two matches by a combined score of 5 to 1 before that victory over Farul. UTA hungry to get into the win column and they are favored at home here with good reason. 10* UTA -114 |
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08-03-23 | BC +6 v. Winnipeg | Top | 14-50 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
CFL Thursday 10* Top Play BC Lions +6 @ Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 8:30 ET - On one hand, this is a revenge game for Blue Bombers after losing badly to the Lions earlier this season. However, in last year's post-season, BC lost at Winnipeg and they have not forgotten this. Winnipeg ended up going to the Grey Cup as a result of winning that game and they hosted it because they won the West Division. Right now, the Lions are 1 game in front of the Bombers for 1st place in the West. This is a huge game as a result and BC is dead set on winning the division this season. The year has a long way to go yet but opening up an early 2-game lead would be huge for the Lions. They are a perfect 5-0 in the division this season and I like the way Dane Evans played last week at QB as BC piled up a lot of offense. Granted, it was at Edmonton, but this Lions team is playing very well this season and has been ultra strong this year on the defensive side of the ball. That said, I like the generous points being offered here and would not be surprised if we see an outright upset and the Lions improving to 6-0 SU in divisional games this season. We'll grab the points as added insurance. 10* BC Lions +6 |
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08-03-23 | Twins v. Cardinals OVER 9 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
MLB Thursday MLB 10* OVER 9 in St Louis Cardinals vs Minnesota Twins @ 7:45 ET - The Twins Sonny Gray had a fantastic start to this season, particularly in April, but has not been overly impressive since then. In June he got hit at a .282 clip and in July he compiled a 4.85 ERA. His combined record these 2 months is 0-4. The Cardinals should enjoy another big day at the plate but I also expect the Twins bats to get in on the act today too after losing 7-3 yesterday. Minnesota will take advantage of a struggling Matthew Liberatore. Even in his recent minor league starts Liberatore has struggled but now he has been thrust back into the starters role for St Louis due to a shortage of arms for the rotation. It has not been earned based on performance as Liberatore has gone 3-5 with a 6.35 ERA and a .314 BAA in his 18 MLB appearances (15 starts). The Cardinals have seen 12 of 19 games since the All-Star Break total at least 9 runs. The Twins have seen 13 of 18 games since the All-Star break total at least 9 runs. Given the above trends and the pitching match-up here (including bullpens - St Louis bad, Minnesota mediocre) this one should fly over the total. 10* OVER 9 in St Louis |
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08-03-23 | Phillies -122 v. Marlins | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 47 m | Show |
MLB Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -120 @ Miami Marlins @ 12:10 ET - The Phillies bounce back after last night's unreal loss in which they were up 5-0 and then 5-2 and 5-4 in last innings and then up 7-5 and 8-7 in extra innings. It was a game they never trailed and yet lost. Heading into yesterday's action, the Phillies certainly have been the much hotter team in comparison with the Marlins. Now today in early action look for a bounce back. Michael Lorenzen makes his debut with the Phillies and he had pitched very well for the Tigers this season. Johnny Cueto has allowed 4 homers in 13 innings at home in what has been an injury-plagued season for him. Though he is back now and off a solid start, that one came against the Tigers. This will be a much tougher challenge for him. 10* PHILADELPHIA -120 |
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08-03-23 | Backa Topola v. Radnicki Nis OVER 2.25 | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
Rotation #221201: Serbia Super Liga: Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 goals +105 in Radnicki Nis vs Backa Topola @ 11:55 AM ET - Radnicki Nis is off a 2-0 loss but now is at home this week. They should respond here in their home opener for the new season and that should translate to plenty of goals here as 4 of their final 5 matches last season did total at least 3 goals. As for Backa Topola, they are off a 3-3 draw in their season opener. Dating back to last season as well, that was the 4th time in 5 matches that a Backa Topola match had totaled at least 3 goals. Their last 6 matches have averaged 3.5 goals apiece. Also, in the last 5 meetings between these clubs there was a 1-1 draw but in the other 4 matches the winning club totaled at least 2 goals all 4 times. Based on the above, I am expecting a 2-1 type match here. The visitors off a high-scoring game and the hosts looking to respond after being held scoreless in season opener. That should translate to solid goal-scoring here. 10* OVER 2.5 +105 in Radnicki Nis |
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08-02-23 | Orioles v. Blue Jays OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7:05 ET - Orioles won 13-3 yesterday and have won 3 straight games plus continue to pile up big runs. That should continue here against Kikuchi. The Blue Jays southpaw has a decent ERA but he actually got hit at a .293 clip last month and a .298 clip in May. I don't think he is that dominant and couple that with the way Baltimore is hitting and we should see plenty of runs here. Also helping in that regard is that Rodriguez is very likely to struggle on the hill for the Orioles. He has a 6.21 ERA this season and Rodriguez has a 7.36 ERA and a .299 batting average against in evening action this year. The Blue Jays can (and will) hit well at home here as they bounce back off an ugly loss. I am not saying Toronto will bounce back for the win but they certainly should bounce back in terms of getting their bats back on track after yesterday's ugly loss. The Jays have scored an average of 5 runs per game last 10 games and that even includes some recent lower-scoring results. 10* OVER 8.5 in Toronto |
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08-02-23 | Phillies -126 v. Marlins | Top | 8-9 | Loss | -126 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -125 @ Miami Marlins @ 6:40 ET - The Phillies won 3-1 yesterday and 4-2 the day before and here are some notes from the past two days' write-ups that make me like Philadelphia again today as well. Keep in mind, the Phillies entered this series off an extra innings loss at Pittsburgh Sunday and had lost B2B games. However, prior to this, Philadelphia was on a long-term run that saw them win 31 of 46 games. I look for Philadelphia to continue to get back on track here in this series at Miami. The Marlins entered this series off a win and having won 4 of 6 games. However, this was preceded by a stretch in which Miami lost 8 straight games and 13 of 18 games. Overall, the Phillies have been the hotter team and I look for the road team to continue to get back on track here in this continued key battle for the #2 spot in the division behind the surging Braves. We are getting some nice line value here because Garrett has decent numbers but he will prove to be no match for Wheeler. Note that Garrett is off a strong start to wrap up July but this was preceded by him allowing 16 earned runs in 18 innings over his prior July starts. Wheeler has been piling up strikeouts plus has allowed 1 earned run or less in 4 of his last 5 road starts. He dominates again here and the Phillies roll continues. 10* PHILADELPHIA -125 |
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08-02-23 | Sheriff v. Maccabi Haifa OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 110 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
Rotation #224229: Champions League | Second Qualifying Round | 2nd Leg: Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 +110 in Maccabi Haifa vs Sheriff Tiraspol @ 1 ET - Sheriff Tiraspol took the first match in Moldova but now have to go to Israel for the 2nd leg of this battle. The 1-0 final that went in favor of Sheriff was not indicative of the dominance that Maccabi Haifa actually had in the match. That said, and now that Maccabi is back home where they have won 8 consecutive matches, I expect a strong push and some scoring from the host in this one. However, Sheriff beat a quality Farul club from Romania to reach this point and that was no easy battle. The visitors will put up a fight here and I am looking for a 2-1 final as an end result in a highly competitive match that will feature a lot of attacking. The hosts are in a 1-0 hole so they will be aggressive from the get-go in this one and this time I look for them to finish better in front of Sheriff's goal. However, the aggressiveness will also open up some chances on the counterattack and that means plenty of opportunities going the other way too. Look for a much more wide open affair here and this one ends with at least 3 goals. 10* OVER 2.5 in Maccabi Haifa |
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08-02-23 | Rakow Czestochowa v. Qarabag FK OVER 2 | Top | 1-1 | Push | 0 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
Rotation #224221: Champions League | Second Qualifying Round | 2nd Leg: Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 2 goals -145 in Qarabag FK vs Rakow Czestochowa @ Noon ET - Rakow Czestochowa lead this one 3-2 after taking the 1st leg by that final score. However Qarabag FK is known for being so strong at home and tough to beat there with only one loss in a competitive match there in the past 18 months! That said, and knowing the hosts have a one-goal deficit heading into this one, you can expect a strong effort from Qarabag FK and I look for them to find the back of the net to force pressure on Rakow Czestochowa. However, I am certain the visitors will answer the call in a match I see strong odds on finishing at least 2-1. Qarabag FK can not sit back here and must be aggressive and they are so solid at home but they will again struggle to stop Rakow Czestochowa here and this leads to a solid over in this one. 10* OVER 2 goals -145 in Qarabag FK |
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08-01-23 | Mets v. Royals OVER 9.5 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets @ 8:10 ET - I don't think Quintana can be trusted just yet. He is still working his way back into form after suffering injury during spring training this season. Quintana has been hittable so far and he faces a Royals lineup that has some extra confidence right now. Generally speaking, Kansas City tends to hit better at home than on the road and now KC enters this game riding a 3-game winning streak and having produced some solid games at the plate recently. As for the Mets lineup, they have plenty of bats that can give Greinke trouble here. The veteran right-hander has been hit hard in each of the last two months and his form shows no indication of anything changing anytime soon. Greinke is backed by a Royals bullpen that is one of the league's worst also. So New York has a big game at the plate but I also look for the Royals to score well too as their recent surge continues as they go for a season-high (for them) 4th straight win. 10* OVER 9.5 in Kansas City |
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08-01-23 | Phillies +116 v. Marlins | Top | 3-1 | Win | 116 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies +115 @ Miami Marlins @ 6:40 ET - The Phillies won 4-2 yesterday and here are some notes from yesterday's write-up that make me like Philadelphia again today as well. Keep in mind, the Phillies entered this series off an extra innings loss at Pittsburgh Sunday and had lost B2B games. However, prior to this, Philadelphia was on a long-term run that saw them win 31 of 46 games. I look for Philadelphia to get back on track here in this series at Miami. The Marlins entered this series off a win and having won 4 of 6 games. However, this was preceded by a stretch in which Miami lost 8 straight games and 13 of 18 games. Overall, the Phillies have been the hotter team and I look for the road team to continue to get back on track here in this key battle for the #2 spot in the division behind the surging Braves. We are getting some nice line value here because Ranger Suarez is a much better pitcher than his recent ERA would indicate but he is up against a big-name pitcher in Sandy Alcantara and that is impacting this line. Alcantara is only 4-9 this season but enters this game off a fantastic CG performance. Note that this was only the 3rd time this season he has gone at least 8 innings and after the first two he got destroyed in the next start. I expect a repeat of that here. 10* PHILADELPHIA +115 |
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08-01-23 | Zrinjski v. Slovan Bratislava OVER 2 | Top | 2-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 39 m | Show |
Rotation #224213: Champions League | Second Qualifying Round | 2nd Leg: Tuesday 10* OVER 2 goals -135 in Slovan Bratislava vs Zrinjski @ 2:30 ET - Slovan Bratislava won 1-0 in the first meeting at Mostar even though Zrinjski actually had an edge in possession and scoring chances. Now Slovan Bratislava will be the host and, though they have the confidence of having earned the road win in the 1st leg, Zrinjski knows they deserved better in that one. They proved in the first leg, though they lost 1-0, that they can play with these guys and they need to work hard again (but will have that added confidence) to get the road win here. Though I am not banking on a road win, I am banking on a strong road effort and the home club to answer the call as well and that should eventually translate to a 2-1 type match here. Slovan Bratislava, prior to their 1-0 win in the first leg, saw their last 4 matches across Champions or Europa League action to each total at least 2 goals and those averaged 3 goals apiece. Zrinjski had 2 of their last 3 total at least 3 goals and their last 3 matches across Champions or Europa League action had averaged 3 goals. 10* OVER 2 goals -135 in Slovan Bratislava |
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08-01-23 | PFC Ludogorets Razgrad v. Olimpija OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 110 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
Rotation #224209: Champions League | Second Qualifying Round | 2nd Leg: OVER 2.5 goals +110 in Olimpija Ljubljana vs Ludogorets Razgrad @ 2 ET - 1st leg was a 1-1 draw so both clubs push hard here for the win and neither club wants to settle for another 1-1 draw with the match to be decided after that. With that said, there is value in expecting 3 goals here. Each match of the First Qualifying Round for Olimpija Ljubljana was decided by a 2-1 final and I am expecting that type of result here. Ludogorets Razgrad saw their First Qualifying Round matches average 3 goals apiece and their Europa Conference League most recent match was also a 2-1 final. Both clubs scoring well domestically of late as well so I am looking for plenty of goals in the deciding match of this qualifying round. 10* OVER 2.5 +110 in Olimpija Ljubljana |
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07-31-23 | Angels v. Braves OVER 10 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 10 in Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Angels @ 7:20 ET - Something is not right with Charlie Morton. He has struggled in his last two starts with too many walks and too many big hits given up. The Angels will take advantage. At the same time, however, Los Angeles pitcher Griffin Canning has a chance somewhere between minimal and non-existent in terms of shutting down this red hot Braves team. Atlanta just continues to pile up runs and wins and Canning enters this one having been hit at a .316 clip this month. Also, he has allowed 13 earned runs in 19 innings over his last 4 starts. The Braves will certainly take advantage. Atlanta is the top slugging team in the majors and also the top hitting team in the National League. The Braves also will take advantage of facing an Angels bullpen that is a weakness. Los Angeles has been winning though as they are 10-5 since the All-Star break and they have averaged scoring 6 runs per game during this stretch. The Braves have also averaged 6 runs per game over their past 11 games and there is a reason this total is posted at double digits. Don't let the big number scare you as we should see at least a dozen runs scored in this one given the pitching situation and two clubs that are stepping to the plate with quite a bit of confidence right now. 10* OVER 10 in Atlanta |
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07-31-23 | Phillies -104 v. Marlins | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
MLB Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -110 @ Miami Marlins @ 6:40 ET - The Phillies are off an extra innings loss at Pittsburgh yesterday and have lost B2B games. However, prior to this, Philadelphia was on a long-term run that saw them win 31 of 46 games. I look for Philadelphia to get back on track here at Miami. The Marlins are off a win and have won 4 of 6 games. However, this was preceded by a stretch in which Miami lost 8 straight games and 13 of 18 games. Overall, the Phillies have been the hotter team and Taijuan Walker gives them the pitching edge over Edward Cabrera here. Walker has gone 8-2 over his last dozen starts and has taken his ERA from 6.53 down to 4.06 over this stretch. As for Cabrera, the Marlins are winless in his last 3 starts and he has given up 9 earned runs in 11 innings during this stretch. Look for the road team to get back on track here in this key battle for the #2 spot in the division behind the surging Braves. 10* PHILADELPHIA -110 |
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07-31-23 | Sepsi v. Dinamo Bucuresti OVER 2.25 | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
Rotation #206893: Romania Liga 1 Monday 10* Top Play OVER 2 goals -150 in Dinamo Bucuresti vs Sepsi @ 2:30 ET - The value of a 2 here is big. In each of the first two weeks 6 of the 8 matches have reached at least the 2-goal mark. Now, as we enter the final matchday of week 3, all 6 matches thus far have totaled at least 2 goals. Scoring is up overall and I like what I am seeing from the marketplace on this one. The betting markets seem to be thinking under here based on line movement yet the odds makers were pointing more towards the over here based on the way they priced it. That said, the fact Sepsi's first two matches have seen a total of just 1 goal scored yet you are seeing some books have over 2.5 goals on this one tells you all you need to know really. Look for Dinamo to come up big at home as they are so happy to be back in Liga 1 and want to put on a show for their home fans but are still seeing their first win this season. Dinamo has allowed 2 goals in each match so far this season but did score a goal last week. Also, dating back to last season's promotion/relegation playoffs they have now scored an average of 2.2 goals last 4 matches but allowed 2.2 goals last 4 matches as well. This one should be very entertaining in Bucuresti tonight. 10* OVER 2 goals -150 in Dinamo |
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07-31-23 | Voluntari v. Petrolul 52 OVER 2.25 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -51 | 6 h 33 m | Show |
Rotation #206873: Romania Liga 1 Monday 10* Top Play OVER 2 goals -130 in Petrolul Ploiesti vs FC Voluntari @ 11:30 AM ET - The value of a 2 here is big. In each of the first two weeks 6 of the 8 matches have reached at least the 2-goal mark. Now, as we enter the final matchday of week 3, all 6 matches thus far have totaled at least 2 goals. Scoring is up overall and I like what I have seen from FC Voluntari entering this one. Their first two matches this season have averaged totaling 4 goals and their final 3 of last season also averaged totaling 4 goals. The last time these two clubs met, ironically, it was a 2-2 final so it also totaled 4 goals. I know Petrolul Ploiesti has seen each of their first two matches finish as 1-1 draws but they are at home here and will push hard for the full 3 points. They have allowed at least 1 goal in 5 straight matches dating back to last season so look for at least a 2-1 final here. 10* OVER 2 goals -130 in Petrolul Ploiesti |
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07-30-23 | Calgary v. Montreal OVER 47.5 | Top | 18-25 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
CFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 47.5 in Montreal vs Calgary Stampeders @ 7 ET - This is Week 8 of the CFL season and is the final of 4 match-ups this week. The first 3 games this week have all remained under. There has NOT been a single week this season out of the 8 weeks so far that we did not see at least ONE over in the CFL. Look for that streak to remain intact as both teams are off high-scoring games (Montreal's was before bye week last week). So both teams off high-scoring losses and this is a non-divisional match-up. This is the perfect set-up for these teams to turn this into an offensive-minded shootout. Nice set up for an over and we get a rather low number to work with. The Alouettes last two games have each totaled at least 54 points and the Stampeders last two games have each totaled at least 64 points! Also, warm weather conditions for this one without any concern for any significant winds. As a result, expect plenty of points here. 10* OVER 47.5 in Montreal |
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07-30-23 | Reds v. Dodgers OVER 10.5 | Top | 9-0 | Loss | -101 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 10.5 in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds @ 4:10 ET - The Reds and Dodgers played out to a 3-2 final yesterday and, surprisingly, LA won despite only 3 hits in the game. After that unusually low-scoring battle, I am looking for a very high-scoring match-up here on Sunday afternoon. It will be a hot afternoon in LA and the ball should carry better than usual here and these are two starting pitchers likely to get roughed up plus neither bullpen has been overly impressive this season. The Dodgers bullpen ERA ranks them 21st. The Reds bullpen WHIP ranks them 23rd out of the 30 teams in MLB. In other words, don't let the big line scare you here. This one should fly over the total. Note that Graham Ashcraft struggled badly in his lone appearance against the Dodgers this season. He has pitched better lately but a lot of that was based on match-ups. This is not a good match-up for him. Also, as for the Dodgers Michael Grove, he has pitched in the majors in April, June and July so far this season. He has had at least 4 appearances in each month and has been hit at over a .300 clip in each month! Grove will struggle here against a Reds team that has shown more and more confidence at the plate as this season has gone on. This LA team is ranked #3 in MLB for slugging percentage and the Reds are a top ten offense for on base percentage this season. Cincinnati had averaged 5 runs per game last 10 games before yesterday's tough loss. The Dodgers have scored an average of 6.5 runs per game last 11 games. 10* OVER 10.5 in Los Angeles Dodgers |
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07-30-23 | CS U Craiova v. CFR Cluj OVER 2.25 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -53 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
Rotation #206889: Romania Liga 1: Sunday OVER 2 goals -135 in CFR Cluj vs Universitatea Craiova @ 2:30 ET - CFR Cluj has both scored and conceded in each of its last two matches across all competitions but also has scored an average of 2 goals in last 3 matches overall. Also, in their 2 Liga 1 matches, CFR Cluj has scored at least 2 goals in each match. Considering that plus the fact that Universitatea Craiova is fired up off a scoreless draw with Otelul Galati, I am looking for goals here. Universitatea Craiova scored 2 goals in winning their first road match this season and they also scored 3 goals in winning their final road match of last season with a big win back in May. They will get on the board here the way I forecast this one as back to back clean sheets highly unlikely. However, CFR Cluj is certainly favored for a reason and the over is the way to go here with a 2-1 final likely and I like the value of over 2 being available at a reasonable -135 price in this one. OVER 2 goals -135 in CFR Cluj |
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07-29-23 | Cubs v. Cardinals OVER 9.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
MLB Saturday 10* OVER 9.5 in St Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs @ 7:15 ET - Last night's match-up was a rare low-scoring one between these teams as they have been flying over for a quite a while now. Remember that Thursday's game was a Chicago win by a 10-3 final as yet another over came in. Entering this series, the Cubs were off a 10-7 win Wednesday which followed a 7-3 win Tuesday which followed a 7-2 win Sunday! That means that 14 of last 16 Cubs games (88%) have totaled at least 9 runs and a 9.5 is currently the posted total on this game. Lot of value here as the Cubs, going further back, have seen 18 of last 22 (82%) games total at least 9 runs. The Cardinals bullpen struggled again Thursday after a game Wednesday in which they hung on for the 11-7 win at Arizona after losing to the Diamondbacks Tuesday in a game in which their bullpen allowed all 3 runs in the 8th inning. The Cardinals have seen 11 of 15 games since the All-Star break total at least 9 runs. Also, the Cards have averaged scoring 5.6 runs per game in those 15 games. The Cubs have averaged scoring 7.4 runs per game last 13 games and are so confident at the plate as they have won 9 of 10 games. This one should see plenty of runs too as, out of the 30 MLB teams, the Cubs bullpen ERA is ranked 16th and the ERA for the St Louis bullpen is ranked 24th. As for the starting pitchers in this one, the Cubs Jameson Taillon has struggled in all but one of his recent starts and that was against a Yankees team he pitched for each of the last two seasons. Other than that one revenge game he performed well in, he has allowed 35 hits in about 26 innings over his other 5 recent starts. The Cards Adam Wainwright is a guy who had a fantastic career and most of that was spent throwing to batterymate Yadier Molina. He has retired now and Wainwright is now 41 years old and those two factors have helped lead the way to him getting destroyed throughout this 2023 season. More struggles likely here and both teams continue their recent trend of getting involved in high-scoring games. 10* OVER 9.5 in St Louis |
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07-29-23 | BC v. Edmonton Elks +8 | Top | 27-0 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
CFL Saturday 10* Top Play Edmonton Elks +8 vs BC Lions @ 7 ET - With Vernon Adams expected to miss this game as he still deals with an injury, the Lions are going with Dane Evans at QB as the starter and Dominique Davis as the back-up. Evans is coming off a mediocre season in which he had as many interceptions as touchdowns and that is why he was not the starter in the first place. Making this match-up a little tougher for him is that WR Dominique Rhymes is expected to miss this game and that is one less target for Evans. Also, BC is facing a desperate home dog here as the Elks are still seeking their first win of the new season. That makes things even tougher for the traveling Lions here and the Elks have been competitive in a number of their losses this season and that should be the case again here. Upset alert as the Elks bring an A game effort here and, if they fall short of the outright win, look for this game to be decided by just a one score margin as the Elks are so hungry for a home win and will be the more amped up team here. BC could overlook them and who could blame them for this really? That makes them a very dangerous dog here. 10* EDMONTON +8 |
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07-29-23 | Steaua Bucharesti v. Otelul OVER 2.25 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -58 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
Rotation #206885: Romania Liga 1 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 2 goals -150 in Otelul Galati vs FCSB @ 2:30 ET - This match was sold out already before matchday! Otelul Galati very happy to be back in Liga 1 and also relishing the opportunity to again host matches like this. They host the big boys from Bucuresti as FCSB is in town for this one and there should be an incredible energy for this match. That said, and considering FCSB is without one of its best defenders, I do expect Galati to find a way to score at least 1 goal here. However, FCSB is a big favorite for a reason here and I am looking for at least a 2-1 final as the end result here. Though we have to lay some extra juice to have the over 2 goals, having a 2 is a key number in matches in Liga 1 and I am willing to lay the price to have the extra security of turning a 2 into a push. FCSB has seen 6 of last 7 matches total at least 3 goals and those 6 matches have averaged 4 goals apiece. More of the same expected here. 10* OVER 2 goals -150 in Otelul Galati |
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07-28-23 | Hamilton +2 v. Ottawa | Top | 16-12 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
CFL Friday 10* Top Play Hamilton Tiger-Cats +2 @ Ottawa Redblacks @ 7:30 ET - Ottawa is off B2B wins but is on short rest here compared to Hamilton. Also the Redblacks game last week was out west at Calgary while the Ti-Cats were at home for their game. Definite scheduling edge for the Tiger-Cats plus Ottawa is 0-2 in divisional games so far this season. The Redblacks want revenge here for the loss at Hamilton a few weeks ago but the road team catching them at the perfect time to get another win over their East Division foes. Ottawa is now 3-9 in divisional games the past two seasons combined and, lets not forget they went 0-9 at home last season. 10* HAMILTON +2 |
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07-28-23 | Phillies -150 v. Pirates | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
MLB Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -150 @ Pittsburgh Pirates @ 7:05 ET - I know this line is a little pricey but I am very confident in a Phillies victory here. Philadelphia was 25-32 in early June. They have since gone 30-15. The Pirates were 32-27 in early June. They have since gone 13-30. As you can see, this teams have been exactly the opposite in their patterns this season. Now it is the Phillies time and note that Zack Wheeler is off a great start at Cleveland. Over his last 4 road starts he has allowed just 5 earned runs in 25 innings! Conversely, the Pirates Mitch Keller has been rocked over his last two starts. Keller has had 3 really rough starts in his 4 outings in July. In these 3 starts, Keller has allowed 18 earned runs on 27 hits in 16 innings of work. This looks like another very tough match-up for Keller and he also is known for struggling against left-handed bats in particular. The Phillies certainly have some dangerous hitters that step in on that side of the plate. This one has the makings of a road rout and the Phillies have the bullpen edge too. The Phils have won 21 of 32 against teams with a losing record this season. The Bucs have won only 23 of 69 games against teams with a winning record this season. 10* PHILADELPHIA -150 |
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07-28-23 | Botosani v. Rapid Bucuresti OVER 2.25 | Top | 2-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
Rotation #206881 Friday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 goals +100 in Rapid Bucuresti vs FC Botosani @ 2:30 PM ET - This sets up well for goals and that is why, even though both clubs failed to score last week, you are seeing totals of 2 and 1/4 or 2 and 1/2 on this one. I am recommending to avoid laying juice and grab the even money on the over 2.5 here and looking for a 2-1 type final. FC Botosani has both scored and conceded in each of their first two matches this season. More of the same here Rapid had a disgusting scoreless draw in Week 1 at home and then responded last week with a big 3-0 win at Universitatea Cluj. Now they want to show the home fans what they can do in Week 3 as they carry momentum home from that big road win last week. Rapid is still adjusting to new personnel and a new manager but things started to fall into place last week as the match went on. Now, after the poor effort in Week 1 on their home turf, the carry momentum into a strong performance here. However, the hosts will be so focused on a stronger attack at home that they could be susceptible to the counterattack going the other way. Look for them to concede at least once but of course they are also a big favorite for a reason. This one should get to at least 2-1 and note that 2 of the last 3 meetings have totaled at least 3 goals and 3 of the last 4 meetings have seen both clubs score at least once. We'll see goals here! 10* OVER 2.5 goals +100 in Rapid Bucuresti |
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07-28-23 | Universitatea Cluj v. U Craiova 1948 OVER 2.25 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 20 m | Show |
Rotation #206877 Friday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 goals +130 in U Craiova 1948 vs Universitatea Cluj @ 11:30 AM ET - There were only 2 clubs that suffered shutout losses last week and now they meet right here. U Craiova 1948 lost 1-0 last week on the road but now they are back home and will respond. At the same time, Universitatea Cluj is off a 3-0 home loss last week and is out for payback this week. This sets up well for goals and that is why, even though both clubs failed to score last week, you are seeing totals of 2 and 1/4 or 2 and 1/2 on this one. I am recommending to grab the big plus money on the over here and looking for a 2-1 type final. Both clubs should get back onto the scoresheet here plus both clubs very hungry for a win as both are winless thus far. They each scored in their first match of the season but each have allowed an average of 2 goals per match this season. This one gets to at least 2-1 the way I see it playing out. Their last two meetings have each totaled at least 4 goals! 10* OVER 2.5 goals +130 in U Craiova 1948 |
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07-27-23 | Cubs v. Cardinals OVER 9 | Top | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
MLB Thursday 10* OVER 9 in St Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs @ 7:45 ET - Cubs off a 10-7 win yesterday which followed a 7-3 win Tuesday which followed a 7-2 win Sunday! That means that 13 of last 14 Cubs games (93%) have totaled at least 9 runs and that is currently the posted total on this game. Lot of value here as the Cubs, going further back, have seen 17 of last 20 games total at least 9 runs. The Cardinals bullpen struggled again yesterday but they hung on for the 11-7 win at Arizona yesterday after losing to the Diamondbacks Tuesday in a game in which their bullpen allowed all 3 runs in the 8th inning. The Cardinals have seen 10 of 13 games since the All-Star break total at least 9 runs. Also, the Cards have averaged scoring 6 runs per game in those 13 games. The Cubs have averaged scoring 7.6 runs per game last 11 games. This one should see plenty of runs as, out of the 30 MLB teams, the Cubs bullpen ERA is ranked 17th and the ERA for the St Louis bullpen is ranked 23rd. As for the starting pitchers in this one, Steele has been struggling some in July and is getting hit at a .316 clip this month. The Cards Mikolas is struggling a bit again and has been hit hard last two starts. Also, in home starts he has struggled in 3 of last 4 outings. More struggles likely here and both teams continue their recent trend of getting involved in high-scoring games. 10* OVER 9 in St Louis |
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07-27-23 | Deportivo Binacional v. Sporting Cristal OVER 3.25 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
Rotation #209657: Peruvian Primera Profesional: Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 3 -130 in Sporting Cristal vs Deportivo Binacional @ 4 ET - Sporting Cristal is a huge favorite here and is favored by 2 goals on the goal line. It looks like Deportivo Binacional is simply outclassed here and, with Sporting Cristal hosting for this one it looks like a complete mismatch that should see plenty of goals. Note that Sporting Cristal has scored plenty of goals as a host in recent matches including averaging scoring 3.3 goals in their last 4 matches in league action that were played here at San Martin de Porres. As for the visitors in this one, Deportivo Binacional, they have some momentum and confidence here as they are coming off a 4-1 win over Deportivo Municipal. However, prior to that victory, they had allowed 2.2 goals per match in their last 5 matches. Now they face a tough match-up against a club known for piling up goals at home. I do expect them to scratch out a goal but also to allow 3 at least. Looking for a 3-1 type of match here and we'll go with the over in this one. 10* OVER 3 |
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07-26-23 | Cubs v. White Sox OVER 8.5 | Top | 10-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday 10* OVER 8.5 in Chicago White Sox vs Chicago Cubs @ 8:10 ET - Cubs off a 7-3 win Tuesday which followed a 7-2 win Sunday! That means that 12 of last 13 Cubs games have totaled at least 9 runs and 8.5 is currently the posted total on this game. Lot of value here as the Cubs, going further back, have seen 16 of last 19 games total at least 9 runs. The White Sox bullpen struggled again yesterday and remember they were off a tough 5-4 loss in extra innings Sunday at Minnesota in which their bullpen failed them. The White Sox have seen 7 of 10 games since the All-Star break total at least 9 runs. Also, the White Sox have averaged scoring 5 runs per game last 9 games. The Cubs have averaged scoring 7.3 runs per game last 10 games. This one should see plenty of runs as, out of the 30 MLB teams, the Cubs bullpen ERA is ranked 19th and the ERA for the White Sox bullpen is ranked 25th. As for the starting pitchers in this one, Stroman has been struggling bad dating back to late June and Lynn is struggling again and having another rough season. Lynn has a 6.18 ERA this season and Stroman has struggled in 4 of last 5 outings. More struggles likely here and both teams continue their recent trend of getting involved in high-scoring games. 10* OVER 8.5 in Chicago |
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07-26-23 | Mets v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in New York Yankees vs New York Mets @ 7:05 ET - Both Rodon and Quintana have hardly pitched this season. Yesterday's game was a 9-3 final and I am looking for another high-scoring battle today. The Yankees had won 3 straight games before the loss yesterday and they scored an average of 6 runs per game in those 3 victories. The Mets have won 5 of 8 games and have scored an average of 5.6 runs per game last 7 games. 10* OVER 8.5 in New York Yankees |
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07-26-23 | Qarabag FK v. Rakow Czestochowa OVER 2 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 41 m | Show |
Rotation #224297: Champions League | Second Qualifying Round | 1st Leg: Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 2 goals -120 in Rakow Czestochowa (Poland) vs. Qarabag FK (Azerbaijan) @ 2:15 ET - Rakow scored 4 goals in their two matches in the opening round of qualifiers while Qarabag scored 6 goals in their corresponding pair of matches in the first round. Both clubs are in strong current form and Rakow has won 4 of last 5 matches across all competitions and are off a 3-0 win in their first league match of the new season. Qarabag is a quality opponent that has won 3 straight matches and I just do not see either club being able to completely shutdown the other one here. That said, no clean sheet and I look for a 1-1 match to eventually lead to a 2-1 final in this one. OVER 2 goals -120 in Rakow Czestochowa |
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07-26-23 | Maccabi Haifa v. Sheriff OVER 2 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -122 | 6 h 42 m | Show |
Rotation #224277: Champions League | Second Qualifying Round | 1st Leg: Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 2 goals -120 in Sheriff Tiraspol (Moldova) vs Maccabi Haifa (Israel) @ 1 ET - Sheriff Tiraspol got by a solid Romanian club (Farul Constanta) to reach this stage. The one thing they won't to do again though is dig themselves a hole by losing the first match. They recovered (barely) in the 2nd leg to advance to the 2nd round but it was a precarious situation after Sheriff Tiraspol lost the first match 1-0. That said, I look for much more aggression here as they look to take advantage of this match being at home also. However, they could be in for a test here as Maccabi Haifa has scored 9 goals in winning each of its last 3 matches across all competitions. We'll see some solid goal-scoring here and the total of just 2 goals is a bargain price for over players the way I see it. 10* OVER 2 goals -120 in Sheriff Tiraspol |
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07-25-23 | Cubs v. White Sox OVER 9 | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* OVER 9 in Chicago White Sox vs Chicago Cubs @ 8:10 ET - Cubs off a 7-2 win Sunday and 11 of last 12 Cubs games have totaled at least 9 runs and that is currently the posted total on this game. Lot of value here as the Cubs, going further back, have seen 15 of last 18 games total at least 9 runs. The White Sox are off a tough 5-4 loss in extra innings Sunday at Minnesota in which their bullpen failed them. The White Sox have seen 6 of 9 games since the All-Star break total at least 9 runs. Also, the White Sox have averaged scoring 5 runs per game last 8 games. The Cubs have averaged scoring 7 runs per game last 9 games. This one should see plenty of runs as, out of the 30 MLB teams, the Cubs bullpen ERA is ranked 19th and the ERA for the White Sox bullpen is ranked 26th. As for the starting pitchers in this one, Kopech has had major command issues for the White Sox with 24 walks and 11 earned runs over his last 18.2 innings. Yes his walks allowed have been crazy! As for the Cubs starter (Hendricks) he is off a strong start but this was preceded by allowing 9 earned runs on 18 hits (6 homers!) in just 10 innings of work. More struggles likely here and both teams continue their recent trend of getting involved in high-scoring games. 10* OVER 9 in Chicago |
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07-25-23 | Orioles v. Phillies -116 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -120 vs Baltimore Orioles @ 6:40 ET - The Phillies have been scuffling a bit lately and the Orioles have been the much hotter team plus Baltimore is currently in the top spot in the AL East. That said, how can Philadelphia have opened up as high as a -140 favorite here? Exactly...and now they are down to as low as a -115 as the betting markets want no part of the Phillies right now. That said, I do...and the value is off the charts with Philly in this spot. They are at home with an 11-4 Taijuan Walker on the mound and the O's Kyle Gibson is a very hittable veteran guy that a tough lineup like the Phillies have can absolutely do a ton of damage on. The home team pulls away as this one goes on. 10* PHILADELPHIA -120 |
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07-25-23 | Panathinaikos v. Dnipro-1 OVER 2.25 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
Rotation #224265: Champions League | Second Qualifying Round | 1st Leg: Tuesday OVER 2.5 +135 in Dnipro-1 (Ukraine) vs Panathinaikos (Greece) @ 2 ET - This match actually being played in Slovakia because of the war in Ukraine. Dnipro-1 is hosting here but Panathinaikos is still the favorite and rightfully so. After falling just short of winning the title in the Greek Super League and also having been knocked out of the Champions League qualifying last year as they lost to Slavia Prague. As a result of both things - including Panathinaikos leading the Greek Super League for much of the campaign before falling just short - you will see a rather aggressive effort from the visitors in this one. I like the new signings of each club and how they have strengthened their roster for this match. Look for goals to result in this one as both clubs push hard to take the upper hand in this 1st of 2 legs. Panathinaikos wants to impose their will but Dnipro-1 has plenty of attacking talent too and will have some extra confidence in this 1st leg as they avoid starting off at Panathinaikos immediately in this 2-leg battle. The hosts will want to take advantage and will be aggressive and the end result will be plenty of goals. OVER 2.5 +135 in Dnipro-1 |
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07-25-23 | Galatasaray v. Zalgiris OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 55 m | Show |
Rotation #224261: Champions League | Second Qualifying Round | 1st Leg: Tuesday OVER 2.5 -115 in Zalgiris (Lithuania) vs Galatasaray (Turkey) @ Noon ET - Galatasaray is a heavy favorite at nearly -200 with good reason. They are -1 goal on the goal line but are on the road here. I see this one playing out to a 2-1 final at least. I look for Zalgiris to put up a fight as the hosts in this one and find the back of the net at least once but they will not be able to stop the superior visitors in the first leg of this tie. Don't be fooled by some recent results for Galatasaray as they were often resting top players. Now, on their way of hopefully securing something in the Champions League, you will see a much different approach from the visitors in this one. The end result will be plenty of goals. OVER 2.5 -115 in Zalgiris |
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07-24-23 | Rangers v. Astros OVER 9 | Top | 9-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
MLB Monday OVER 9 in Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers @ 8:10 ET - The Astros have a solid bullpen but the Rangers bullpen is actually one of the worst in the majors for team ERA. That could be an issue here for sure as Jon Gray may not last long in this one. The Texas right-hander has allowed 38 hits in less than 30 innings of work spanning his last 6 starts. Though Gray gave up no earned runs in his last start he was hit hard and this followed a 5 start stretch in which he allowed 19 earned runs in about 25 innings of work! Houston's Brandon Bielak has pitched better last couple starts in July but had a rough June and faces a tough Rangers lineup here. Not only is Texas off an 8-4 win yesterday, the Rangers last 13 games have averaged 11 runs per game and 9 of the 13 games totaled at least 9 runs. The posted total on this game is, in fact, a 9 and the Astros should hit very well per the struggles of Gray and the Rangers bullpen. However, the Texas bats should answer the call as well as the Rangers have averaged scoring 5.2 runs per game in their 9 games since the All-Star break. The Astros also have averaged 5.3 runs per game since the All-Star break. Don't be surprised if we see each team reach the 5-run mark in this one. OVER 9 in Houston |
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07-24-23 | Rockies v. Nationals OVER 9 | Top | 10-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
MLB Monday OVER 9 -115 in Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies @ 7:05 ET - Not concerned with who the starting pitchers are. These are the two worst bullpens in the National League based on relievers combined ERA so far this season. Also, the Nationals won 6-1 yesterday and 7 of their 8 games since the All-Star break, prior to yesterday's game, had totaled at least 11 runs! The Rockies are off a 3-2 extra-innings loss yesterday but had scored an average of 5 runs per game and gone 5-2 in their first 7 games, before yesterday's defeat, after the All-Star break. OVER 9 -115 in Washington |
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07-24-23 | Otelul v. CS U Craiova OVER 2.25 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -112 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
Rotation #206861: Romania Liga 1: Monday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 +120 in Universitatea Craiova vs Otelul Galati @ 2:30 ET - Galati is off a 1-1 draw at home last week but felt they deserved better. They will certainly be going strong for the full 3 points in the table here but Universitatea Craiova is a big favorite for a reason. Galati is a newly promoted club and will put up a fight here but this is the home opener for Universitatea Craiova and their manager is already preaching the importance of putting up a strong scoring effort on their home pitch. The fans want to see success but also to see goals and I expect an aggressive approach here as the hosts look to take advantage of facing a foe that was in Liga 2 last season. Galati, however, does have some solid attacking ability and I don't see them shutout. Hence, I am looking for at least a 2-1 final here as Universitatea Craiova is a nearly -300 favorite on the money line and should find a way to prevail but I also doubt a clean sheet here. The hosts won 2-0 last week but that was against a Dinamo Bucuresti club that is struggling badly early this season. This Galati club will put up more of a challenge and Universitatea Craiova had allowed at least 1 goal in 11 straight matches before that clean sheet last week. 10* OVER 2.5 +120 in Universitatea Craiova |
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07-24-23 | Petrolul 52 v. Botosani OVER 2.25 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -50 | 4 h 27 m | Show |
Rotation #206857: Romania Liga 1: Monday 10* Top Play OVER 2 -135 in FC Botosani vs Petrolul Ploiesti @ 11:30 AM ET - 2 of last 3 meetings totaled at least 3 goals and those 2 actually averaged 4 goals apiece. Both teams hungry for first win of season as Botosani fell short 2-1 last week but now this is their home opener and they wrapped up last season with a 5-1 win in their home finale. Petro is off a 1-1 draw at home last week and each of their last 3 road matches have totaled at least 3 goals. There is some 2 available in the -135 range on this one and I will not hesitate to again take advantage of the key number available on this one as each club has some extra hunger to get into the win column here too and will push hard on the attack. 10* OVER 2 -135 in FC Botosani |
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07-23-23 | Ottawa v. Calgary OVER 44.5 | Top | 43-41 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
CFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 44.5 in Calgary Stampeders vs Ottawa Redblacks @ 7 ET - This is Week 7 of the CFL season and is the final of 4 match-ups this week. The first 3 games this week have all remained under. There has NOT been a single week this season out of the 7 weeks so far that we did not see at least ONE over in the CFL. Look for that streak to remain intact as both teams are off wins. Both were high-scoring wins and this is a non-divisional match-up. This is the perfect set-up for these teams to perhaps lose some defensive edginess. It is a non-divisional battle and both teams did win their games last week despite each allowing a ton of points. Nice set up for an over and we get a low number to work with. Also, warm weather conditions for this one without any concern for any significant winds. As a result, expect plenty of points here. 10* OVER 44.5 in Calgary |
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07-23-23 | Rapid Bucuresti v. Universitatea Cluj OVER 2.25 | Top | 3-0 | Win | 104 | 6 h 9 m | Show |
Rotation #206853: Romania Liga 1 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 2 goals -140 in Universitatea Cluj vs Rapid Bucuresti @ 2:30 ET - Universitatea Cluj is off a 1-1 draw last week. Rapid is off a very disappointing scoreless draw with Sepsi last week. However, the manager of Rapid previously was with Sepsi and that match, as a result, did turn into a bitter defensive and tactical battle that was predicated on trying not to lose rather than trying to win. Seriously, it played out in that fashion and I expect this match to play out in a much different fashion. Rapid already under pressure to perform after the dismal performance in Week 1 so I look for them to step up in a big way on the road here in Week 2. However, a more aggressive and unrelenting attack will also give Universitatea Cluj the opportunity for some strong scoring chances on the counterattack on their home pitch. There is a reason the juice is a little heavy on this at over 2 goals. Having a total of 2 in Romanian football is a strong value as it is such a key number. 5 of last 7 Rapid matches had totaled at least 4 goals to wrap up last season and I look for them to get back to playing "Rapid Football" here in this one! 21 of last 27 matches involving Universitatea Cluj have totaled at least 2 goals. This one will too and with Rapid having only 10 draws in 40 matches last season and Universitatea Cluj having only 11 draws in 39 matches last season - both stats including play-off/play-out matches - the likelihood of a draw is rather slim so look for at least a 2-1 final here. OVER 2 goals -140 in Universitatea Cluj |
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07-23-23 | Cardinals v. Cubs OVER 9 | Top | 2-7 | Push | 0 | 4 h 52 m | Show |
MLB Sunday 10* OVER 9 in Chicago Cubs vs St Louis Cardinals @ 2:20 ET - Light wind but still likely to be blowing out. Jordan Montgomery has faced the Cubs only once this season and it was here at Wrigley Field and he did struggle as he allowed 6 earned runs in just 5 innings and now he faces a tough road match-up again as the Cubs have been hitting great overall of late. Yesterday these teams combined for 14 runs as they made up for a rare, strange result the day before when they combined to go 3 of 18 with runners in scoring position. Remember that rare result Friday had followed a long stretch of high-scoring games for both teams. Also, the game Friday was 4-3 Cubs in top of 8th when the Cards had bases loaded and 1 out. It was a bad beat that Friday's game did not get to 4-4 right there which would have guaranteed a win on our over 8 or 8.5 we had Friday. Then yesterday's got it right back as the Saturday game easily flew over the total early. This one leaves no doubt. Cubs going with James Taillon here and the big right-hander is 1-4 with a 7.06 ERA and with teams hitting .320 against him - all of those are his stats in home games this season. More of the same expected here as he also is 0-4 with an 8.76 ERA in his 6 day starts this season and opponents are hitting .330 against him in those games. Both St Louis and Chicago have been involved in a lot of overs for weeks now. More of the same here. 10* OVER 9 in Chicago |
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07-23-23 | Giants v. Nationals OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -122 | 3 h 27 m | Show |
MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 or 9 in Washington Nationals vs San Francisco Giants @ 1:35 ET - The Nationals bullpen ERA of 5.47 ranks them dead last in the National League. Couple that with a starting pitcher likely to struggle plus another team going with a bullpen game and you have a great set-up here. Scott Alexander expected to start for the Giants and he is merely just an opener here and Anthony DeSclafani will likely get the bulk of the work here. That is noteworthy as Anthony DeSclafani has allowed 31 earned runs in his last 40 innings and has been susceptible to giving up the long ball on the road. He has allowed 5 homers in 5 innings on the road spanning his last two outings. As for MacKenzie Gore, the Nationals southpaw has allowed at least 5 earned runs in 4 of his last 6 starts that have gone at least 2 innings. Neither team expected to enjoy much success from the mound in this one. The lineups should stay hot as San Francisco bounces back after a rare bad performance yesterday as they scored just 1 run. The Giants started out 5-2 after the All-Star Break and the 5-game winning streak saw them score an average of 6.4 runs per game. The Nationals 8 games since the All-Star break have averaged 12.6 runs per game and 7 of the 8 have totaled at least 11 runs! The only one that did not was Friday's game which was 5-3 after 5 innings but then the scored died and it ended that way. This one will not die! It should fly over the total. 10* OVER 8.5 or 9 in Washington |
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07-23-23 | Hermannstadt v. CSMS Iasi OVER 2 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 3 h 18 m | Show |
Rotation #206849: Romania Liga 1 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 2 goals -105 in Poli Iasi vs Hermannstadt @ 11:30 AM ET - Both clubs still looking for first points of new season and even looking for first goals too as both were handed clean sheets by their opponent last week in losses for each. Look for a much different match this time around as Poli Iasi is playing their home opener after earning promotion to Liga 1. In other words, this is a special match for them. I do expect them to find the back of the net at least once here but also Hermannstadt is going to respond as their first match was against a very tough Farul club. Of course Farul is the defending league champion plus they are known for an improved defense so it makes sense that Hermannstadt struggled in the first match of the new season. However, they now take on a club that was in Liga 2 last season and I look for the visitors to be very aggressive here on the attack. Again though, I just do not see Poli Iasi getting held down again as this one is on their home pitch and they are excited about being back in Liga 1. The result should be a 2-1 final here the way I see it. OVER 2 in Poli Iasi |
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07-22-23 | Phillies -116 v. Guardians | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -116 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
MLB Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -115 vs Cleveland Guardians @ 7:10 ET - Cleveland snuck out the 1-run win yesterday but had lost 5 of 7 games before that. Phillies have now suddenly lost 3 straight but had been red hot over about a 2-month period prior to this. Tanner Bibee has pitched well for the Guardians but he is still a rookie hurler. Here we get a chance to take Zack Wheeler - 60-38 since the last 6 seasons combined with an ERA in the low 3's over this stretch - over a rookie hurler. Couple that with Cleveland struggling, for the most part, against quality teams this season and you have a very nice set-up here. The Guardians are a combined 14-5 against Kansas City, Pittsburgh, and Oakland. They are 34-44 against the rest of the league. The Phillies are 26-13 against teams with a losing record this season and yes Cleveland is below .500 on the season. Grab the value with the road team at a very favorable price here as Bibee faces a tough test here and these Phillies get back on track behind one of their best pitchers, Wheeler, and get a much needed win. Philly has not lost 4 games in a row since a 5-game losing streak that was back in late May/early June. 10* PHILADELPHIA -115 |
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07-22-23 | Saskatchewan +10 v. BC | Top | 9-19 | Push | 0 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
CFL Saturday 10* Top Play Saskatchewan Roughridgers +10 @ BC Lions @ 7 ET - As lines continue to rise there will be big dog value to latch onto quite frequently. I know it did not work out last night with Hamilton falling just short of the cover but those yardage starts were nearly equal in that game. Also, this followed a big dog cover with Edmonton at Winnipeg Thursday. Now here is another case where a favorite is getting into the over-valued territory in my assessment. BC is a strong club but the yardage was nearly equal to their opponents in their most recent win and that followed a Lions loss in which they allowed 45 points. So, the point is, this BC team continues to be overvalued and I like the fact that Riders QB Mason Fine - very successful at North Texas in college football - got some valuable CFL experience last year. He will be ready to go again here with QB Trevor Harris having gotten hurt and having to undergo surgery. Fine was 6 of 8 with two touchdown passes in last week's 2-point loss to Calgary. Speaking of the two point margin, the Roughriders have been known for tight games this season. This should be another one. 5 games for Riders so far and 4 were decided by an average margin of just 2.5 points! Happy to grab the big points here. 10* SASKATCHEWAN +10 |
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07-22-23 | Cardinals v. Cubs OVER 9.5 | Top | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 5 m | Show |
MLB Saturday 10* OVER 9.5 in Chicago Cubs vs St Louis Cardinals @ 2:20 ET - Wind blowing out. Mikolas has allowed at least 3 earned runs in 5 of the last 7 starts in which he has gone more than 3 innings - that one was rain-shortened. In those 5 starts he allowed an average of 4.6 earned runs per outing! Also, the start right before all this (his first of June) saw Mikolas allow 10 hits in just 5 innings. I am just not sold on him being turned round completely and the right-hander faces a tough road match-up as the Cubs have been hitting great overall of late. Yesterday these teams combined to go 3 of 18 with runners in scoring position. All this after a long stretch of high-scoring games for both teams. Also, the game yesterday was 4-3 Cubs in top of 8th when the Cards had bases loaded and 1 out. It was a bad beat that yesterday's game did not get to 4-4 right there which would have guaranteed a win on our over 8 or 8.5 we had yesterday. We get it back today. This one leaves no doubt. Cubs going with a bullpen game and both St Louis and Chicago have been involved in a lot of overs for weeks now. More of the same here. 10* OVER 9.5 in Chicago |
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07-22-23 | Dinamo Bucuresti v. Steaua Bucharesti OVER 2.75 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 50 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
Rotation #206845: Romania Liga 1 Saturday OVER 3 +110 in FCSB vs Dinamo @ 2:30 ET - This will be a fantastic atmosphere in Bucuresti for this one. Dinamo is back in Liga 1 and now these two rivals face off for the first time this season. The match will be sold out and packed with rabid fans and the intensity level will be off the charts. 4 of the last 5 meetings between these clubs have totaled at least 3 goals and those 4 matches averaged 4 goals apiece. That is what I am looking for here as Dinamo has seen its last 3 matches average 5 goals apiece but it includes a 2-0 shutout to open up their new season in the top league in Romania. That satisfied no one of course so they will be a lot more aggressive on the attack here as they look to score first goal of the season. However, their issue will be stopping a strong FCSB club. 5 of last 6 FCSB matches have totaled at least 3 goals and they are coming off a 3-1 win to open up the season. Well coached and stocked with solid players, FCSB should have a huge performance here. Those 5 out of the 6 matches that were high-scoring averaged totaling 4.4 goals apiece. Take advantage of the plus money here on a bigger total than usual. This one is set at 3 goals for a reason and we'll grab it! OVER 3 +110 in FCSB |
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07-22-23 | Voluntari v. Farul Constanta 1920 OVER 2.25 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 38 m | Show |
Rotation #206841: Romania Liga 1 Saturday OVER 2 -150 in Farul vs Voluntari @ 11:15 AM ET - Strong value with this total available at a 2 in some spots even though that is at a pricier juice factor. Both meetings last season totaled at least 2 goals. Also, Voluntari is on a long-term run in which 11 of their last 12 matches have totaled at least 2 goals and those dozen matches averaged 3.3 goals apiece! Farul is going to come out aggressive here. Their first match this season was only a 1-0 win but they were saving players and energy for their Champions League Qualifying. Now, after losing that battle due to a loss in the 2nd leg of it, Farul is fully focused on Liga 1 action. Coming off a championship season and having scored an average of 1.8 goals per match in the regular season, they will be relentless here. However, Voluntari has scored an average of 1.9 goals per match last dozen matches and I look for both clubs to enjoy success on the attack tonight. Farul known for scoring very well at home and they will be out for blood in this one. As a result, I am looking for a 2-1 type final here. OVER 2 -150 in Farul |
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07-21-23 | Toronto v. Hamilton +9.5 | Top | 31-15 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 41 m | Show |
CFL Friday 10* Top Play Hamilton Tiger-Cats +9.5 @ Toronto Argonauts @ 7:30 ET - Hamilton lost the first meeting 32-14 but the Tiger-Cats actually outgained the Argonauts in that one and the game was at Toronto! Yes, I am aware of the QB situation for the Ti-Cats here but I am confident that Taylor Powell, former Eastern Michigan QB, is going to give them a strong performance here. Powell himself is confident and this is still a talented Hamilton club that is capable of the upset here. The Argos are 4-0 this season but coming off a huge win over Montreal last week. Even if the Ti-Cats fall short, look for the points to prove to be too much here in this one. Grab the generous point spread offered in this one and look for a tight game here. 10* HAMILTON +9.5 |
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07-21-23 | Giants v. Nationals OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 53 m | Show |
MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Washington Nationals vs San Francisco Giants @ 7:05 ET - The Nationals bullpen ERA of 5.54 ranks them dead last in the National League. Couple that with a pair of starting pitchers likely to struggle and you have a great set-up here. Alex Wood expected to start for the Giants and he has allowed 7 earned runs on 9 hits in 7 innings spanning his last two starts. He also walked 7 batters while striking out just 3 in those two outings. As for Jake Irvin, the Nationals right-hander has allowed 9 earned runs on 17 hits in 14 innings this month and only has 7 strikeouts in those outings. Neither team expected to enjoy much success from the mound in this one. The lineups should stay hot as San Francisco bounces back after a rare bad performance yesterday as they faced a tough starter Thursday. The Giants are 5-2 since the All-Star Break and the 5-game winning streak saw them score an average of 6.4 runs per game. The Nationals 6 games since the All-Star break have averaged 13.7 runs per game and all 6 have totaled at least 11 runs so, with this total at 9.5 across the board, this over is testing a 100% RUN going for 7 in a row! 10* OVER 9.5 in Washington |
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07-21-23 | CFR Cluj v. UTA Arad OVER 2.25 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 111 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
Rotation #206837: Romania Liga 1 Friday 10* Top Play OVER 2 -130 in UTA vs CFR Cluj @ 2:30 ET - Strong value with this total available at a 2 in some spots. Both meetings last season totaled at least 2 goals. Also, each club saw their season-opening match last week reach the 2-goal mark. 12 of last 15 UTA matches have totaled at least 2 goals and those dozen matches averaged 3 goals apiece. As for CFR Cluj, they were one of the top scoring teams in the league last season but I feel both clubs could struggle defensively here. Keep in mind, each club faced a newly promoted opponent last week and they will each face a tougher attack now this week after facing Otelul Galati and Poli Iasi, respectively, last week. CFR Cluj averaged 1.8 goals scored per match in the regular season last year and I am looking for a 2-1 type final here. 10* OVER 2 -130 in UTA |
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07-21-23 | Cardinals v. Cubs OVER 8 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 8 or 8.5 in Chicago Cubs vs St Louis Cardinals @ 2:20 ET - The wind will be blowing in for this one plus Justin Steele has great full season numbers. However, the above is merely serving to keep this total lower than it should be! Note that the Cards Jack Flaherty is off a strong start but was hit hard in 3 of his 4 starts prior to that. In those 3 outings, Flaherty allowed 29 hits in 17 and 1/3 innings! I also like the fact that the Cubs last 9 games all have totaled at least 9 runs and the last 8, prior to day yesterday, had totaled at least 11 runs! The Cardinals also have been hitting very well and have been involved in a lot of high-scoring games since the All-Star break. The Cards have seen of 6 of their 7 games since the All Star break total at least 9 runs so, with this total at 8 or 8.5 across the board, we have great value. As it pertains to Chicago's recent results, this over is testing a 100% RUN going for 10 in a row! Steele has been rocked in both of his July starts so his full season numbers are masking the fact that his current form is off. As for Flaherty, he has a 5.62 ERA in day games and the Cubs should bounce back after a tough night at the plate yesterday. Chicago had been hot at the plate prior to yesterday. Also, a day game at Wrigley Field even with wind blowing in is still a nice set-up the way these two teams have been trending and with consideration to the starting pitchers. As always, my play is action on the starting pitchers! 10* OVER 8 or 8.5 in Chicago Cubs |
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07-21-23 | U Craiova 1948 v. Sepsi OVER 2.25 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
Rotation #206833: Romania Liga 1 Friday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 +105 in Sepsi vs U Craiova 1948 @ 11:30 AM ET - U Craiova 1948 is off a 3-1 loss last week and 3 of their last 5 matches have totaled at least 3 goals. Also, 3 of the last 4 times they have met Sepsi, the matches have totaled at least 3 goals. Sepsi off a scoreless draw but 7 of their 10 matches heading into that one had totaled at least 3 goals. Their battle last week was with Rapid and that was their former manager that was leading the way for the opposition. That led to a surprisingly tactical low-scoring battle where neither club was able to make the net ripple. This match-up is entirely different and the goals will flow. 10* OVER 2.5 +105 in Sepsi |
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07-20-23 | Edmonton Elks +15 v. Winnipeg | Top | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
CFL Thursday 10* Top Play Edmonton Elks +15 @ Winnipeg Blue Bombers at 8:30 ET - A lot of line value here the way I see it. Yes, Edmonton is 0-6 on the season but they have often been very competitive. Also, their defense has actually allowed a total of only FOUR touchdowns in THREE road games this season! I think the Elks remain hungry and will put forth another competitive effort on the road here as they look to pull off the shocker. Winnipeg is a quality team but they just allowed that huge Redblacks comeback against them from a huge deficit in Ottawa. The point is that the Blue Bombers will be angry and looking to bounce back here but their defense also has proven susceptible. Winnipeg should hang on for the win here but the Blue Bombers defense will again be susceptible to late points. That means a backdoor cover, if even needed, is also a distinct possibility here given that this line is above the two TD mark. Grab the big points. 10* EDMONTON +15 |
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07-20-23 | Cardinals v. Cubs OVER 8 | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 8 in Chicago Cubs vs St Louis Cardinals @ 8:05 ET - The wind will be blowing in for this one plus Marcus Stroman has great full season numbers. However, the above is merely serving to keep this total lower than it should be! Note that the Cards Steven Matz is 0-7 with a 4.86 ERA so far this season. I also like the fact that the Cubs last 8 games all have totaled at least 9 runs and the last 7 have totaled at least 11 runs! The Cardinals also have been hitting very well and have been involved in a lot of high-scoring games since the All-Star break. The Cards have seen of 5 of their 6 games since the All Star break total at least 10 runs so, with this total at 8 across the board, we have great value. As it pertains to Chicago's recent results, this over is testing a 100% RUN going for 9 in a row! Stroman is off a good start but this followed him allowing 15 runs (12 earned) in 14 innings spanning his 3 prior starts. As for Matz, he has a 6.03 ERA in road games and he is 0-6 with a 5.80 ERA in night games. So an evening game at Wrigley Field is not exactly a good combo for him! 10* OVER 8 in Chicago Cubs |
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07-20-23 | Brewers v. Phillies -113 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -113 | 4 h 19 m | Show |
MLB Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -115 vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 12:35 ET - Philadelphia lost yesterday but consider the value now today with a pick'em price because Burnes is on the mound for Milwaukee but the betting markets essentially ignoring the fact that Walker is 11-3 this season and has been dominant in his own right. The Phillies certainly have the more potent lineup plus they are the hotter team plus they have the home field edge. Yes each team entered this series on a winning streak but, after yesterday's 5-3 Milwaukee win, the Brewers are still only 19-15 last 34 games while the Phillies are 27-11 last 38 games. That coupled with the situational edge makes the Phillies the play here. Philadelphia, not including the All-Star break period, is 5-1 last 6 times when they are at home and coming off a loss. Milwaukee has averaged scoring just 2.8 runs per game last 6 games. Phillies averaging 5.8 runs scored last 5 games. Phillies get right back on track at home here after rare loss as a host yesterday. 10* PHILADELPHIA -115 |
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07-19-23 | Nationals v. Cubs OVER 9 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Chicago Cubs vs Washington Nationals @ 8:05 ET - As mentioned in write-ups each of the past two days, we get value here because neither one of these clubs are known for hot hitting. The key here is that the Nationals bullpen ERA ranks them dead last in the National League and the Cubs ERA ranks them as not much better as they are in the bottom half of the league! Couple that with a pair of starting pitchers likely to struggle and you have another great set-up here. Trevor Williams expected to start for the Nats and he has allowed 11 earned runs in less than 18 innings over his last 4 starts. Kyle Hendricks expected to start for the Cubs here and he is 0-4 with a 5.00 ERA in evening action this season and he enters this start having been completely destroyed in his last two starts. This includes allowing 6 homers in his last two outings. Neither lineup is overly impressive as these clubs each rank slightly under the middle of the pack range in MLB for slugging percentage so far this season. However, the pitching - including bullpens so this play is action - coupled with fair weather for an over this evening should lead to plenty of runs here. I also like the fact that the Cubs last 7 games all have totaled at least 9 runs and the last 6 have totaled at least 11 runs! The Nationals last 11 games all have totaled at least 9 runs so, with this total at 8.5 across the board, this over is testing a 100% RUN going for 12 in a row! 10* OVER 8.5 in Chicago Cubs |
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07-19-23 | Brewers v. Phillies -158 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -158 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -160 vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 6:40 ET - We got burned yesterday as Philadelphia outhit Milwaukee 12-4 but only won the game 4-3 and we had run line so it was a loss. Even though today's line is still fairly price on the money line, it is at least a little lower and I do not want to get burned again so, this time, we lay the price! The Phillies certainly have the more potent lineup plus they are the hotter team plus they have the home field edge. Yes each team entered this series on a winning streak but, after yesterday's 4-3 Phillies win, the Brewers are only 18-15 last 33 games while the Phillies are 27-10 last 37 games. That coupled with the mound edge makes the Phillies the play here. Philadelphia expected to start Christopher Sanchez here and he has been much better than his 0-3 record would lead you to believe. He has a 3.26 ERA and opponents are hitting just .221 against him and he has looked particularly strong recently. Colin Rea goes for the Brewers today and he has allowed at least 4 earned runs in 3 of his last 5 starts and the Philadelphia hot sticks are likely to give him plenty of trouble here as their surge continues. Phillies stay red hot at home here. 10* PHILADELPHIA -160 |
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07-19-23 | Astana v. FC Dinamo Tbilisi OVER 2 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 9 m | Show |
Rotation #224241: Champions League | First Qualifying Round | 2nd Leg: Wednesday OVER 2 goals -140 in FC Dinamo Tbilisi vs Astana @ Noon ET - This one coming from the Georgian capital after the teams played out a 1-1 draw in Kazakhstan in the 1st Leg. In the Georgian top league, FC Dinamo Tbilisi is the the highest scoring club and averaging scoring 2.3 goals per match. Getting this total at just 2 is an excellent value as this one has the makings of a 2-1 final. Astana will put up another strong battle here but the hosts likely to prove to be too much on their home pitch and I expect both clubs to score but then a strong push for the deciding goal as neither clubs wants this Qualifier to be decided after regular playing time. OVER 2 -140 in FC Dinamo Tbilisi |
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07-18-23 | Nationals v. Cubs OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-17 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 or 9 in Chicago Cubs vs Washington Nationals @ 8:05 ET - As mentioned in yesterday's write-up, we get value here because neither one of these clubs are known for hot hitting. The key here is that the Nationals bullpen ERA ranks them dead last in the National League and the Cubs ERA ranks them as not much better as they are in the bottom third of the league! Couple that with a pair of starting pitchers likely to struggle and you have a great set-up here. The Nationals are expected to start Patrick Corbin here and he is off a rare strong start but this followed him having allowed 30 earned runs on 62 hits on 45 hits in his 8 starts that preceded that rare strong outing before the All Star break. As for Chicago's Jameson Taillon, he also is off a rare strong start and but was struggling before that. Also, the strong outing came against the Yankees team he went 14-5 for last season so don't be surprised if he comes out flat in this one after that rare gem against his former team. You know Taillon wanted that one bad. Prior to that outing, Taillon had allowed 42 earned runs in 49 innings over 11 starts leading into that one. Neither lineup is overly impressive as these clubs each rank slightly under the middle of the pack range in MLB for slugging percentage so far this season. However, the pitching - including bullpens so this play is action - coupled with fair weather for an over this evening should lead to plenty of runs here. I also like the fact that the Cubs last 6 games all have totaled at least 9 runs and the last 5 have totaled at least 11 runs! The Nationals last 10 games all have totaled at least 9 runs so, with this total at 9 or 9.5 across the board, this over is testing a 100% RUN going for 11 in a row! 10* OVER 8.5 or 9 in Chicago Cubs |
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07-18-23 | Brewers v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 -105 vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 6:40 ET - Teheran struggling badly for the Brewers in recent starts. Nola, for the Phillies, has been showing a lot of outings lately in which he looks like "vintage Nola" and his dominating stuff should keep Milwaukee off balance here. The Phillies certainly have the more potent lineup plus they are the hotter team plus they have the home field edge. Yes each team enters this one on a winning streak but the Brewers 18-14 last 32 games while the Phillies are 26-10 last 36 games. That coupled with the mound edge makes the Phillies the play here. Note that 35 of 42 Brewers losses have been by 2+ runs this season and that is an 83% rate! 9 of last 11 Phillies wins have been by 2+ runs and that is an 82% rate. Phillies win in a home blowout here. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -105 |
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07-18-23 | FCV Farul Constanta v. Sheriff OVER 2 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -123 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
Rotation #224213: Champions League | First Qualifying Round | 2nd Leg: Tuesday OVER 2 -118 in Sheriff Tiraspol vs Farul Constanta @ 1 ET - Farul is from Romania Liga 1 so I am very familiar with them. The rested nearly the entirety of their lineup in the first match of the new season which ended up a 1-0 win over Hermannstadt. The players that faced Sheriff in the 1st leg of this Champions League qualifying helped lead the way to a 1-0 win and they will be back for Farul for the 2nd leg and they are well-rested. That sets this up well for a high-scoring match the way I see it. Both clubs missed some great scoring chances in the first meeting. I also see Sheriff coming out strong here at home in Moldova. They will score but I really like the chances of Farul answering the call here. Keep in mind, a 1-0 loss here would mean Farul has to rely on the extra time or penalty kicks to ultimately prevail here. That said, they do not want to leave this opportunity to chance. They will go hard for the win and at least a draw here. Remember if it ends 1-1 we at least get a push here but all factors considered I am looking for at least a 2-1 final. In Europa Conference League action, Sheriff allowed at least 1 goal in 4 straight heading into the 1st leg of this Champions League battle. In those 4 matches, Sheriff allowed an average of 1.5 goals. I do look for them to be strong here at home and get on the scoresheet this time against Farul but you can also see, per the above, why I am also expecting the boys from Constanta to find the back of the net at least once as well. In fact, Farul has scored at least a goal in 13 straight matches across all competitions and has averaged 2 goals per match during this stretch. OVER 2 -118 in Sheriff Tiraspol |
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07-17-23 | Nationals v. Cubs OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Chicago Cubs vs Washington Nationals @ 8:05 ET - We get value here because neither one of these clubs are known for hot hitting. The key here is that the Nationals bullpen ERA ranks them dead last in the National League and the Cubs ERA ranks them as not much better as they are in the bottom third of the league! Couple that with a pair of starting pitchers likely to struggle and you have a great set-up here. The Nationals are expected to start MacKenzie Gore here and he allowed at least 5 earned runs in 3 of the 5 starts that preceded his final (rain-shortened) outing before the All Star break. As for Chicago's Drew Smyly, he also was struggling before the break. In fact, Smyly allowed 14 earned runs in 11 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts before the All-Star break. Smyly also has allowed at least 5 earned runs in each of his last 3 home starts! Neither lineup is overly impressive as these clubs each rank slightly under the middle of the pack range in MLB for slugging percentage so far this season. However, the pitching - including bullpens so this play is action - coupled with nice weather for an over this evening should lead to plenty of runs here. I also like the fact that the Cubs last 5 games all have totaled at least 9 runs and the last 4 have totaled at least 11 runs! The Nationals last 9 games all have totaled at least 9 runs so, with this total at 8.5, this over is testing a 100% RUN going for 10 in a row! 10* OVER 8.5 in Chicago Cubs |
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07-17-23 | CS U Craiova v. Dinamo Bucuresti OVER 2.25 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -63 | 6 h 42 m | Show |
Rotation #206829: Romania Liga 1: Monday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 goals +105 in Dinamo vs Universitatea Craiova @ 2:30 ET - Dinamo is thrilled to be back in Liga 1 after earning promotion from Liga 2 a few months ago. This is a very popular team in Bucuresti, the largest city in Romania, and by Saturday this match was already sold out for tonight. The place will be packed and Dinamo is long for riding the enthusiasm when they play at home. However, Universitatea Craiova is a 1-goal favorite for a reason of course. The way I see this one playing out is that Dinamo will find the back of the net at least once but eventually the visitors find a way to prevail in a 2-1 final. Either way, upset for Dinamo or big road win for Universitatea Craiova, look for this one to end up with at least 3 goals. 3 of the last 5 meetings between these two clubs, including each of the last two, have totaled at least 5 goals! The two playoff matches for Dinamo that earned them this promotion each totaled at least 6 goals! Universitatea Craiova, before a 1-0 loss to close out last season, had seen their 10 prior matches all total at least 2 goals and those 10 matches averaged 3 goals apiece. Look for this one to get to at least the 3-goal mark as well. 10* OVER 2.5 in Dinamo |
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07-16-23 | Astros v. Angels OVER 10 | Top | 9-8 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 10 in Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros @ 7:10 ET - The Angels and Astros combined for 25 runs yesterday. This game should be another one that easily gets to double digits. First off, both bullpens got hammered yesterday. Secondly, the starting pitchers here are each likely to get rocked. Tyler Anderson has a 5.25 ERA and has been getting hit at a .278 clip on the season. The Angels southpaw facing an angry Astros lineup that will be relentless after they scored 12 runs yesterday yet lost the game! Los Angeles also should have another big day at the plate as Houston's Cristian Javier is struggling badly after a hot start to the season. He has allowed 18 earned runs in less than 11 innings spanning his last 3 starts overall. Also, in terms of road starts, he has struggled in each of his last 3 away from home with 18 earned runs allowed in about 13 innings of work. The Angels and Astros sticks both pick up where they left off yesterday and the bullpens likely to again struggle. Keep in mind, the Angels have had 4 straight games and 6 of last 7 all total at least a dozen runs! All signs point to this one doing the same. 10* OVER 10 in Los Angeles Angels |
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07-16-23 | Yankees v. Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
MLB Sunday 10* OVER 11 in Colorado Rockies vs New York Yankees @ 3:10 ET - I am a little surprised this total has not dropped below an 11 but actually that should tell us all something here. The fact is that the markets are expecting the same thing I am here...that we get an over despite the fact the Yankees lineup has not been great and Gerrit Cole is on the mound for New York. Cole has very little experience at hitter-friendly Coors Field and the hot dry weather is going to be ideal for the ball to carry very well in the thin air of Denver this afternoon. As for the Yankees sticks, they did bounce back for 6 runs yesterday and they will take advantage of a struggling hurler here. Sure enough, after a shockingly good start to this season, Chase Anderson is back to reality for the Rockies. The Colorado hurler has not only been hit hard, he has been absolutely destroyed the last month and a half. More of the same expected here and this one turns into a slugfest. 10* OVER 11 in Colorado |
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07-16-23 | Steaua Bucharesti v. U Craiova 1948 OVER 2.25 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
Rotation #206821: Romania Liga 1: Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 +125 in U Craiova 1948 vs FCSB @ 2:30 ET - U Craiova 1948 finished their season with a low-scoring loss but their 3 matches prior to that averaged 3.7 goals per match. I am looking for a very high-scoring match here as they are the host in this one and I expect they will find the back of the net at least once. However, FCSB, even without Andrea Compagno (not expected to play here) has a ton of scoring firepower and looks like one of the top clubs in the league entering this season. They are known for scoring well and wrapped up last season with 6 of last 9 matches totaling at least 3 goals. In fact those 9 matches averaged 3 goals apiece and their is certainly nothing "average" about that. Take advantage of the plus money here! 10* OVER 2.5 +125 in U Craiova 1948 |
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07-16-23 | Universitatea Cluj v. Petrolul 52 OVER 2 | Top | 1-1 | Push | 0 | 5 h 49 m | Show |
Rotation #206817: Romania Liga 1: Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 2 in Petrolul Ploiesti vs Universitatea Cluj @ 11:30 AM ET - The winning club has scored 2 goals in each of the last two meetings between these clubs. Also, Petro finished up last season with 5 of last 7 matches totaling at least 2 goals and the last 3 of those that did all totaled at least 3 goals! More of the same here as U Cluj has seen 20 of last 26 matches get to at least the 2 goal mark. A lot of value with this total at just 2 goals and we'll take advantage. 10* OVER 2 in Petrolul Ploiesti |
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07-15-23 | Yankees v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 11.5 in Colorado Rockies vs New York Yankees @ 8:10 ET - I know Judge took batting practice yesterday but is still out for awhile and this Yankees lineup does not look good at all. However, this is still Coors Field and this is the most hitter-friendly ballpark in baseball and today New York will be facing a Rockies starter that has struggled this season. Also, behind Connor Seabold is a Colorado bullpen that ranks 27th in the majors with a 4.86 ERA. The Yankees bullpen has been much better but, again, this is a tough place to pitch and the Rockies are one of the top hitting teams in the majors when at home. Colorado will hit well again here just like yesterday's 7-run outburst but, this time, the Yanks join the party. New York will take advantage of Seabold as he is 0-4 in his last 4 starts with 24 earned runs allowed in 17 innings. As you can see, the Rockies hurler is not just struggling, he is getting destroyed of late. The Yankees Clarke Schmidt has an ERA of nearly 6.00 this season in his road appearances with opponents hitting nearly .300 against him away from home. 10* OVER 11.5 in Colorado |
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07-15-23 | Calgary +1.5 v. Saskatchewan | Top | 33-31 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
CFL Saturday 10* Top Play Calgary Stampeders +1.5 @ Saskatchewan Roughriders @ 7 ET - Going very short on CFL write-ups today. The Stamps are on the road and 1-3 this season and facing a Riders team that is 3-1 this season and known for playing tough at home. All that and yet this line is as low as a pick'em in some spots. The point is that this line is set this way for a reason so don't let the number scare you away. Saskatchewan barely snuck by Calgary in the first meeting this season so this is a payback revenge spot. Also the Roughriders other two wins were against Edmonton and the Elks are now 0-6 on the season! So Saskatchewan is 3-1 this season but absolutely over-rated and the Stampeders other two losses this season were to BC and Winnipeg and those two teams are each 4-1 on the season now. Undervalued road team here will surprise many. 10* CALGARY +1.5 |
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07-15-23 | Winnipeg v. Ottawa +10 | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 6 h 45 m | Show |
CFL Saturday 10* Top Play Ottawa Redblacks +10 vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 4 ET - Going very short on CFL write-ups today. This is just too many points. Going to take this home team and challenge the huge road favorite to win by double digits away from home. Just can not see that happening here and note that Ottawa has only 1 loss by more than 8 points in its 4 games this season and that was a loss by just 11 points. The Redblacks defense has been respectable and their offense will step up at home here too. 10* OTTAWA +10 |
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07-15-23 | CSMS Iasi v. CFR Cluj OVER 2.25 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -57.5 | 6 h 0 m | Show |
Rotation #206813: Romania Liga 1: Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 +120 in CFR Cluj vs Poli Iasi @ 2:30 ET - Poli Iasi is newly promoted and averaged 1.6 goals scored in the regular season last year in Liga 2 and then averaged scoring 2 goals in the play-off round of 10 matches. This is a club that found the back of the net with consistency last season but, of course, they are a large dog here for a reason. With CFR Cluj having a new manager as well as some personnel changes, you know the hosts are going to want to come out strong here. I am looking for at least a 2-1 final here and like the value we we are getting with the over 2.5 at +120 for this one. CFR Cluj averaged 1.8 goals scored in the regular season last season and will come out strong here after a disappointing finish in the play-off round for Liga 1. CFR Cluj did allow a goal per match last season but also was tied with Farul as the highest scoring club in the league. That sets this one up to be at least a 2-1 final the way I see it. We saw yesterday that newly promoted Galati never backed down in their match and were still going for the win late in the 1-1 match and you are going to see a similar strong effort from Poli Iasi in this one. OVER 2.5 +120 in CFR Cluj |
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07-15-23 | Rays v. Royals OVER 9 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 10 m | Show |
SATURDAY PLAY as this now goes in Game ONE of Double-Header SATURDAY at 2:10 ET. Here is yesterday's write-up which still applies after the Friday rain out: MLB 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay Rays @ 8:10 ET - This game could be impacted by weather early and might get a delayed start but once they do get underway I am expecting a solid over here. The Royals on the run line at -2.5 runs are priced in the -115 range. In other words, solid chance they win this game by at least 3 runs. So, for example, if KC scores 3 the oddsmakers are saying odds are that TB scores 6. Of course that alone gets us to 9 runs and a push but I am absolutely expecting double digits in runs here. The Rays Tyler Glasnow has struggled on the road and also against lefties. The Royals have plenty of left-handed lumber in their lineup plus they do tend to hit better at home. However, while I do expect Kansas City to do some damage here, I also expect the Rays to go absolutely ballistic in this one! Tampa Bay should pound Alec Marsh. The young Royals hurler went 8-23 with a 5.72 ERA in the minors. In this, his rookie season in the majors, Marsh is 0-2 with a 7.00 ERA and he has had an issue with too many walks also. Behind him is a Royals bullpen that ranks among the worst in the majors and will also struggle here against a strong Rays lineup. The set-up, other than some early evening weather concerns, is perfect for a slugfest in this one. 10* OVER 9 in Kansas City |
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07-14-23 | Toronto -5.5 v. Montreal | Top | 35-27 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
CFL Friday 10* Top Play Toronto Argonauts -5.5 @ Montreal Alouettes @ 7:30 ET - Huge scheduling edge for the Argonauts as they are off a bye week after thrashing BC two weeks ago. That is the same Lions team that the Alouettes just visited last week and got thrashed by them in Vancouver. That performance for each team against BC shows you the difference between these teams. Also, the Als now have the difficulty of having just had a cross country trip for their game last week and it was on Sunday. Montreal did not even practice Monday or Tuesday after that game was over 2,000 miles away. The Argos, having been off last week, and having faced the Lions at home in Toronto the week before, have a large scheduling edge here. Also, they are undefeated this season and are the defending champs. We saw last night, with Edmonton's loss, that this seems to be a continuation this season of a pattern in which the zig-zag theory is just not working. Good teams rolling and bad teams struggling week after week. Hamilton and Ottawa entered this week 1-3 on the season and those are the only two teams that the Als have beaten. When they have stepped up in class they have lost every game and this looks like another loss and I see the Argos improving to 4-0 on the season with a dominating road win. 10* TORONTO -5.5 |
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07-14-23 | Padres v. Phillies +103 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
MLB Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +100 vs San Diego Padres @ 6:05 ET - Padres only 18-24 on the road this season. Phillies are 22-16 at home this season. San Diego is 25-27 against teams with a winning record this season. Philadelphia is 23-11 this season against teams with a winning record. We are getting a value line here because of the expected starting pitching match-up of Yu Darvish versus Christopher Sanchez. Not only do I not care who the starting pitchers are - going action on pitchers as per usual here - I also feel the Phillies have the edge. Yes, Darvish is a "big name" pitcher but he also has a 6.16 ERA on the road this season. This is not a big surprise as last year his road ERA was about 1 run higher than at home for the season. Also, the year before his road ERA was about 2 runs higher than at home for the year. As for Sanchez, he has been solid since returning from the minors last month. He has allowed just 5 earned runs in 21 innings spanning his last 4 starts. More of the same here and I like the Phillies at home over the Padres here regardless of the starting pitchers. 10* PHILADELPHIA +100 |
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07-14-23 | Sepsi v. Rapid Bucuresti OVER 2 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -103 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
Rotation #206805: Romania Liga 1 Friday 10* Top Play OVER 2 -105 in Rapid Bucuresti vs FC Sepsi @ 2:30 ET - When these clubs last met in the play-off it was a scoreless draw in Bucuresti but this followed a 2-0 Sepsi victory in the first of the two play-off meetings last season. Also, when they met in the regular season each of the two meetings totaled 3 goals last season. I am looking for a similar result here to open up the new season. Rapid has a new coach, Cristiano Bergodi, that had just spent almost two years at Sepsi. He knows this club well and will put that to his advantage here. Also, Rapid is coming off a strong season and is particularly tough at home. However, the reason this line is priced nearly equal across the board on the 3-way line (win loss draw nearly equal odds for each result) is because Sepsi will put up a big fight here. The total actually opened up at 2 and 1/4 or 2 and 1/2 in some books so the fact it has dropped to a 2 is a solid value here. Even a 1-1 final would avoid a loss in this one but I am looking for 3 goals and a 2-1 final. Rapid averaged 1.3 goals scored per match last season and Sepsi averaged 1.6 goals scored per match. You can see why we have support for expecting at least 3 here and Rapid had only a 23% draw rate last season. Getting to 1-1 and then an eventual 2-1 final seems like the most likely result here and I am going with a top play here. 10* OVER 2 -105 in Rapid Bucuresti |
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07-13-23 | Hamilton v. Edmonton Elks +1.5 | Top | 37-29 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 27 m | Show |
CFL Thursday Edmonton Elks +1.5 vs Hamilton Tiger-Cats @ 9 ET - The Elks were a 2.5 dog and are actually moving close to as low as a pick'em in some spots. Consider that fact plus the fact that Edmonton is 0-5 this season with their overall record plus went 0-9 at home last season. In other words, how is it possible that this line is almost a pick'em? Exactly! But note that Hamilton is off their first win of the season. This is a tough spot for the Tiger-Cats the way I see it. They finally won a game plus they are on short rest here. Hamilton played on Saturday last week while the Elks played on Thursday. Not only does that give the hosts the rest edge here, also note that they lost last week's game by a single points. The home team is going to be very determined this week to finally get into the win column after coming so close last week and their defense has been playing better. EDMONTON +1.5 |
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07-13-23 | São Paulo v. Palmeiras OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 105 | 18 h 53 m | Show |
Rotation #212229: Copa do Brasil | Quarter-Finals | 2nd Leg: Thursday OVER 2.5 +115 in Palmeiras vs Sao Paolo @ 7 ET - I look for Palmeiras to respond at home after losing the first leg of this battle 1-0. They were horrible in that match but will be much stronger at home and of course they must score if they want a chance to advance here. At the same time though, I do not expect them to be able to shut down Sao Paulo here. The visitors are off a scoreless draw but this followed scoring at least 1 goal in 3 straight matches and averaging 1.3 goals scored in that stretch. Again, Palmeiras can not settle for a 1-1 draw so if you expect both clubs to score and you expect the hosts to be very aggressive on the attack which will open up counterattacking, you can likewise expect at least a 2-1 final here. No matter how it gets there, indeed I am looking for at least 3 goals here. OVER 2.5 +115 in Palmeiras |
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07-12-23 | Panama v. United States OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
Rotation #225117: CONCACAF Gold Cup | Semi-Finals: Wednesday OVER 2.5 +130 in USA vs Panama @ 7:30 ET - The USA match with Canada was 1-1 and had to eventually be decided on penalty kicks. They made it here and now take on a Panama club off a 4-0 win. Given the building confidence of the underdogs here I do expect them to make the net ripple once but USA is a big favorite for a reason and will prove to be too much here. Looking for at least a 2-1 final here as there is too much disparity in skills and talents here and the USA won the past two meetings 5-2 and 6-1 for a combined 11-3 on the aggregate. I like the value here of the over 2.5 available at plus money and will not hesitate to step in on this one. OVER 2.5 +130 in USA |
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07-11-23 | Newell's Old Boys v. Independiente OVER 1.75 | Top | 2-0 | Win | 52.5 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
Rotation #208005: Argentine Primera Division | Gameweek 24: Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 1.5 -145 in Independiente vs Newell's Old Boys @ 7 ET - Independiente gave up a late goal to settle for a 1-1 draw in most recent match and will be more aggressive on the attack here as they look to put this one away in dominant fashion on home soil. They have been a much stronger club on their home pitch this season and Independiente home matches have averaged 2.5 goals per match on the season. We have some solid line value here because Newell's Old Boys will be fired up after a 2-0 loss the last time out but they have allowed 1.4 goals per match in their road matches this season. An inability to stop the opposition has hurt Newell's away from home this season and that continues here but I expect them to find the back of the net at least once in this one. With the low total, a 1-1 final or even if we did see a 2-0 final, either result will cash our ticket here. We have to lay some extra juice to have the over 1.5 goals but this looks like a great spot situationally to do just that. Newell's off a shutout loss and Independiente off a match where they know they should have remained more aggressive in going for that 2nd goal. Each of Newell's last 6 matches have totaled at least 2 goals and I look for that run to go to 7-0 right here on Tuesday! OVER 1.5 -145 in Independiente |
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07-10-23 | Belgrano de Córdoba v. Club Atlético Colón OVER 2 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -103 | 7 h 54 m | Show |
Rotation #208009 - Argentine Primera Division | Gameweek 24 - Monday OVER 2 in Colon vs Belgrano @ 3:30 ET - Both clubs off losses by identical scores of 2-0. Colon has been aggressive on the attack but then turnovers have led to quick counter-attack opportunities for the opposition. With this being a home match, I expect Colon to continue to be aggressive but this could lead to trouble again in terms of goals conceded. Colon matches have been higher scoring at home while Belgrano has given up 1.2 goals per match in their road matches. Look for Colon to score at least once at home but Belgrano gets on the scoresheet as well. Belgrano has only 1 draw in 12 matches on the road this season so you can also see why the odds favor this one getting past 1-1 and ending in a 2-1 final. No clean sheet, no draw, look for at least 3 goals here. OVER 2 in Colon |
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07-09-23 | Canada v. United States -154 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -154 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
Rotation #225114: CONCACAF Gold Cup | Quarter-Finals Sunday USA Money Line -155 vs Canada @ 7:30 ET - USA has dominated their meetings with Canada and particularly when they face them on American soil. In fact, they are unbeaten in the last 22 meetings with the Canadians on American soil. Of course a draw will not help us here but I do fully expect them to remain undefeated last 23 matches in USA by virtue of a win and that makes the money line very reasonable here. They have played so well under their interim manager and they have been strong defensively and also possess the most attacking firepower of any club in this Gold Cup. Look for them to roll big again here. Lay the price with the hosts here. USA -155 |
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07-09-23 | Montreal v. BC OVER 45.5 | Top | 19-35 | Win | 100 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
CFL Sunday OVER 45.5 in BC vs Montreal @ 7 ET - Historically BC is particularly strong at home and they score a lot of points here. That should be the case again in this one! Even in last week's road loss the Lions scored 24 points but the problem was they allowed 45 points. Now they face a Montreal club that scored just 3 points last week at home! After that embarrassing home loss, I am certain the Alouettes will bounce back with much bigger scoring on the road here but the problem is that they will struggle to stop a BC team determined to bounce back off a loss! The Als did average scoring 28.5 points the first two games. The Lions are averaging 25 points scored per game. This one will be a wild back and forth high-scoring affair the way I see it and we will finally see an over in the final of 4 games on this week's slate. In the first 4 weeks of this season, there has never been a week that did not feature at least one over or one under. I don't expect that to change in week 5 either because the set up here is perfect! OVER 45.5 in BC |
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07-09-23 | Mets +118 v. Padres | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 36 m | Show |
MLB Sunday New York Mets +115 @ San Diego Padres @ 4:10 ET - I did fall just short with Mets run line +1.5 runs yesterday but as mentioned in that write-up, this Padres team is just not that good. They came into the season with high expectations but look at their batting order. They of course have that potent "heart of the order" but they are weak elsewhere and particularly 6 through 9 spots. The Mets lineup not as strong in the middle but is much more complete in terms of respectable sticks through the entirety of the batting order. As for the pitchers here, I know Joe Musgrove is a solid pitcher with good numbers but I expect Max Scherzer to better him here. The Mets right-hander is 6-0 in his last 6 decisions. He has allowed only 16 hits in the 20 innings spanning his last 3 starts and those were against the two world series teams - Astros and Phillies - from last year's fall classic plus he faced a strong Diamondbacks lineup. With consideration to that, Scherzer has been sharp on the road of late and I expect success for him here in San Diego. This is a lot of line value here with the money line available at an underdog price on the Mets with Scherzer on the mound here. I will go action with the pitchers though as last week snapped some streaks/trends that I expect to get payback for right here. The Padres, before yesterday's win, had lost 8 of 12 games and the Mets were on a 6-game winning streak before yesterday's loss! NEW YORK METS +115 |
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07-09-23 | Rockies v. Giants OVER 7.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 50 m | Show |
MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 7.5 in San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies @ 4:05 ET - This is a low total considering the teams combined for 20 hits yesterday plus the Rockies had 9 hits and 5 runs in the Friday win too. I look for the hits to continue here. The Rockies send Kyle Freeland to the mound and he is 1-7 with a 5.89 ERA on the road this season. The Giants send Logan Webb to the mound and he has allowed 15 hits in less than 12 innings in his last two starts. Webb has been solid this season but has a 4.82 ERA in his last 3 starts. Total a little low for an afternoon game in San Francisco and considering the Giants bullpen ERA ranks in the middle of the pack while the Rockies bullpen is one of the worst in the majors. 10* OVER 7.5 in San Francisco |
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07-08-23 | Mets +1.5 v. Padres | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -132 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
MLB Saturday New York Mets +1.5 -135 @ San Diego Padres @ 10:10 ET - This Padres team is just not that good. They came into the season with high expectations but look at their batting order. They of course have that potent "heart of the order" but they are weak elsewhere and particularly 6 through 9 spots. The Mets lineup not as strong in the middle but is much more complete in terms of respectable sticks through the entirety of the batting order. As for the pitchers here, Snell is the big name guy but he allowed 11 baserunners in 5 innings in his most recent start and was very fortunate to come out of it unscathed. He also got rocked by the Mets earlier this season and I would not be surprised to see that again here against Snell. As for Peterson, the southpaw has struggled this season and got demoted. But even when struggling earlier this season he handcuffed these Padres in his only start against them. The southpaw also has been better since his demotion and has allowed just 1 earned run in 10 innings. This is a lot of line value here with the run line available at a respectable price on the Mets here. The Padres have lost 8 of 12 games and the Mets won in extra innings to carry momentum from that into this one plus they already had momentum from what is now a 6-game winning streak! Also, in last 13 games, Mets only have 1 loss by more than 1 run and that is why I am riding the exceptional value with this run line here. NEW YORK METS +1.5 -135 |
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07-08-23 | Ottawa v. Hamilton OVER 44 | Top | 13-21 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
CFL Saturday OVER 44 in Hamilton Tiger-Cats vs Ottawa Redblacks @ 7 ET - Look for plenty of points here. I expect the 0-3 Ti-Cats to respond at home and finally get something going here but I also expect their struggles on defense to continue here. Note that Hamilton has allowed 37 ppg this season! The Tiger-Cats should score well here though too. They had scored an average of 22.5 ppg in first two games before struggling in the game before last week's bye week. As for Ottawa, their confidence is up after scoring 26 points last week and notching their first win of the season. Hamilton did score 31 points in their season-opener and now, 0-3 and coming off a bye, they will be ready to go in a big way here. 4 of last 5 CFL games have gone under and this is starting to drive totals lower than they should be. We step in here and take advantage as the situation is right for a high-scoring battle here. OVER 44 in Hamilton |
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07-08-23 | Racing Club v. Estudiantes La Plata OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
Rotation #208025: Argentine Primera Division | Gameweek 24 Saturday OVER 2 -145 or OVER 2.5 +135 in Estudiantes vs Racing Club @ 5 ET - Estudiantes is averaging 1.5 goals scored per match this season. As for Racing Club, they are the only club in the league that has both scored and conceded at least 30 goals this season! You have the option of over 2.5 at big plus money here or laying some juice to have the over 2 goals. Of course the latter is my preference here as 2 is certainly a key number in soccer matches in this league. Also, Racing Club has had 17 straight matches - across all competitions - total at least 2 goals. Estudiantes is off a scoreless draw but this followed 8 of 11 matches across all competitions totaling at least 2 goals. Those 8 matches averaged 3 goals apiece and I am looking for at least a 2-1 final as both clubs good for at least 1 goal here and then note that Racing Club has only 3 draws in 11 road matches this season so look for a goal apiece and then a tie-breaking strike here. OVER in Estudiantes |