Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-20-23 | Union Berlin v. Real Madrid OVER 3 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 56 m | Show |
Rotation #224233: Champions League | Group Stage: Wednesday 10* OVER 3 +120 in Real Madrid vs Union Berlin @ 12:45 ET - The fact you are seeing over 3 on this one at plus money is no accident. In my opinion this is encouragement from the books to lay that big price on the other side of this one, the under, because some of the sharper books are thinking this one gets to 4 or more goals. I am right there with them on that theory and we have great line value here when you consider getting to 3 goals would still be a push but we have that solid shot at nice plus money with 4 or more goals. Note that Real Madrid has scored 10 goals in last 5 matches but also allowed 9 goals in last 7 matches. Union Berlin has seen 7 of last 8 matches total at least 3 goals and those 7 matches averaged 4.6 goals apiece and there certainly is nothing average about that. Look for another wild one here. 10* OVER 3 +120 in Real Madrid |
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09-19-23 | Phillies +1.5 v. Braves | Top | 3-9 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 -105 @ Atlanta Braves @ 7:20 ET - Both pitchers off strong starts against the respective lineups they most recently faced. The Phillies proved last night they can play the home run game too and truly they are a lineup loaded with home run power. That said, they are getting 1.5 runs here at a fantastic price and it is too good to pass up when you consider the pitching of Christopher Sanchez as well. Yes, Spencer Strider is off a a great start versus Philly but he allowed 10 earned runs in 9 innings in his two starts prior to that so he could relapse here. He has had another huge season but, unlike Sanchez, he is not flying under the radar. The thing is, because Sanchez does not have a good record and missed some of this season, he is very undervalued. Not only off solid outings of late, he also has a minuscule 1.29 ERA in his 4 road starts this season. On the road here, here and the homer-happy Phillies will keep this one interesting and might even get another big win tonight. If they lose look for it to be decided by just 1 run. A lot of value here with this run line. 10* PHILADELPHIA +1.5 |
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09-19-23 | White Sox v. Nationals OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -114 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Washington Nationals vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:05 ET - Jose Urena piled up some strikeouts in his last start but also allowed 3 homers and he is 0-6 with an 8.48 ERA this season. As for Jackson Rutledge, he just got rocked in his MLB debut and he struggled some at the AAA level of the minors so this was not a huge surprise. These are two of the worst bullpens in baseball too. The White Sox won 6 to 1 here in DC yesterday but, prior to this, 10 of last 13 Nationals home games have totaled at least 10 runs. As for Chicago, they have scored 6 runs in 4 of last 6 road games. Also, prior to the 6-1 win yesterday the White Sox had allowed 8 runs per game last 6 games overall. 10* OVER 9.5 in Washington |
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09-19-23 | Crvena Zvezda v. Manchester City OVER 4 | Top | 1-3 | Push | 0 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
Rotation #224225: Champions League, Group Stage: Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 4 in Manchester City vs Crvena Zvezda @ 3 ET - Crvena Zvezda is also referred to as Red Star Belgrade and this club from Serbia is in deep trouble here as you can tell from the goal line of -3 goals in favor of Manchester City in this one. I look for City to be relentless here but Crvena Zvezda should be able to find the back of the net once and make this a 4-1 type final the way I see it. Crvena Zvezda is off a 2-1 loss to Cukaricki in Serbia League action while City just hammered West Ham United 3-1 over the weekend. For Manchester City, this followed a 5-1 win over Fulham and City has now scored an average of 3.3 goals per match last 3 matches. City is defending their Champions League crown now and I look for them to right away make a statement here in the opening match. Crvena Zvezda has allowed 2 goals per match last 3 matches in league action and they take a major step up in level of competition here so don't be surprised if they allow 4 goals in this one. Crvena Zvezda has been scoring goals all season long in their league and, though they will have major defensive shortcomings exposed in this match, they are capable of netting a goal and that will help push this one over the total. 10* OVER 4 in Manchester City |
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09-19-23 | Newcastle United v. AC Milan OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
Rotation #224201: Champions League, Group Stage: Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 in AC Milan vs Newcastle United @ 12:45 ET - Newcastle is off a 1-0 win versus Brentford but anyone who watched the match knows there should have been a lot more scoring. Also, this Newcastle backline has had some inconsistencies this season and I am sure AC Milan will take advantage here after they just got hammered 5-1 by Inter Milan and they can not wait to get back on the pitch and make amends for that. AC Milan has seen their last 5 matches average 4.4 goals apiece. Newcastle certainly has some striking power and will look to take advantage of an AC Milan backline that has played a role in conceding 1.8 goals per match last 5 matches. Newcastle has seen their last 10 matches average 3.2 goals per match and I expect more of the same here. Prior to the 1-0 win over the Bees, Newcastle had seen 6 of last 9 matches total at least 3 goals and AC Milan has had 4 of last 5 matches total at least 3 goals. This one will too. 10* OVER 2.5 in AC Milan |
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09-18-23 | Browns v. Steelers OVER 38 | Top | 22-26 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
NFL Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns @ 8:15 ET - This total has been adjusted down to 38 and is just too low in my opinion. The Steelers got dominated last week but that was a solid 49ers defense they faced. Now they catch the Browns off a dominating divisional win. Yes, the Cleveland defense looked great last week but did you see the Bengals offense again yesterday at home against the Ravens? This Cincinnati team has issues on offense and so I expect the Steelers to do much better on offense at home against a Browns defense that is solid but a bit over-rated already early this season. Pittsburgh did move the ball last week against that strong 49ers team but they just couldn't get much going down the field. They will find more openings here against a Browns team that has given up at least 22 points in 21 of 27 road games (including post-season) under Stefanski. That includes an average of 32 points in 4 road games at Pittsburgh. The Browns defense will be tested here but part of the reason I faded the Steelers last week (and won with SF) is because I do not trust this Pittsburgh defense. Sure enough they gave up nearly 400 yards and the damage might have been worse were it not such a blowout in which the Niners were able to stop pushing much on offense. I look for Cleveland to move the ball well here too just like SF did and with this being more of a back and forth game, the Browns will not back down and with having such a bad history here in regular season games, I know Cleveland will keep pushing hard for the win. Game could go either way late in terms of the SU winner but, in terms of the total, this should get well into the 40s in a back and forth battle with good weather in PA for this one too. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh |
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09-18-23 | Phillies +103 v. Braves | Top | 7-1 | Win | 103 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
MLB Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies +100 @ Atlanta Braves @ 7:20 ET - This one is all about the line value. The Braves took 3 of 4 from the Phillies in Philly and have the best record in baseball this season. However, Philadelphia out for revenge here and they are the defending NL Champions and they have a decided pitching edge here. The fact is the Braves, other than that series win at Philly, have lost 7 of their other 10 recent games as they just got swept at Miami. Atlanta is not exactly on fire at the moment and the Marlins were not just squeaking by in those games. The Marlins hammered them to the tune of a 36 to 13 aggregate score. To say the last, the Braves bullpen is not exactly in great shape right now and they send Kyle Wright to the mound so that might need plenty of pen in this one. Wright has struggled overall in his limited action this season and that includes getting pounded by the Phillies in his most recent start. Zack Wheeler starts for the Phillies here and he also struggled against the Braves in a recent outing but bad starts have been rare for him! Wheeler is having a solid season. Not stellar like last season but Wheeler has been solid and he dominated the Braves when he faced them here in Atlanta earlier this season. He and the Phillies are out for revenge here and they are catching the slumping Braves at the right time to get revenge. Take advantage of the low price. 10* PHILADELPHIA +100 |
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09-18-23 | Saints v. Panthers +3.5 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
NFL Monday 10* Top Play Carolina Panthers + vs New Orleans Saints @ 7:15 ET - Dennis Allen is head coach of the Saints. With the win he got last week, his NFL career head coaching record is 14-38. That is not a mistype. 14-38 is his career record. I know the Saints could win this division this season but the NFC South is truly a bit of an up for grabs type of division these days so that is not saying much. I personally think even the Panthers could ultimately challenge. Frank Reich was offensive coordinator of the Eagles when they beat the mighty Patriots in Feb of 2018. He then went to be head coach of the Colts and had a 40-33 record with them including taking them to the playoffs twice. His record is not fantastic but Reich has a leg up on Allen when it comes to head coaching edge in this match-up the way I see it. I know the Saints have the more established QB now and the Panthers were done in by turnovers last week but they will be better here at home in week 2. Also, they actually outgained the Falcons by 60 yards in that week 1 loss. That is the same Atlanta team that beat GB yesterday and though that win was by just as single point, the Falcons actually outgained the Packers by 200 yards and actually only punted ONCE the entire game! That is domination and the points is that the way the Panthers defense played in week one looks even more impressive now as the Falcons are 2-0 and flying high on offense. The offense of Carolina will be better this week and Reich's background is offense. So the key here is this is a solid defense that can contain the Saints offense. New Orleans benefitted from turnovers in their week 1 win so this is another point of value here in evaluating week 2 match-ups. Now with this line at a solid +3 and you might even find some 3.5 starting to show up, this is an excellent home dog spot. The Panthers were 4-0 ATS in home games last season when coming off a road loss in their prior game. They respond at home here and I expect an outright upset win but will grab the points just in case. 10* CAROLINA + |
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09-18-23 | Burnley v. Nottingham Forest OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
Rotation #200037: English Premier League: Monday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 -105 in Nottingham Forest vs Burnley @ 2:45 ET - Traditionally this type of system has worked well. These clubs met in non-league action, in the English Carabao Cup, just a few weeks ago and Burnley won 1 to 0. The set up here is now you have them meeting in League action and Nottingham Forest is hosting and they are the revenging club. This will result in a match that plays out in much different fashion than the 1-0 Cup battle these clubs just had. Note that Burnley has allowed at least 3 goals in EACH of their first 3 matches this EPL season! As for Nottingham Forest, they are off a 1-0 surprising win over Chelsea but each of their 3 matches in League action prior to this saw them both score and concede! All 3 matches totaled at least 3 goals and this one will too! Burnley is off to a rough start in the league this season but views this as a winnable match based on the English Carabao Cup success as well as the fact Nottingham Forest is certainly no powerhouse! That said, I do look for Burnley to get on the board here but also expect this to turn into a back and forth battle as Forest has been playing with confidence as it at home. They have already scored well in league action including 5 goals last 3 matches. 10* OVER 2.5 -105 in Nottingham Forest |
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09-18-23 | Petrolul 52 v. CFR Cluj OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -104 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
Rotation #206865: Romania Liga 1: Monday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 -105 in CFR Cluj vs Petrolul Ploiesti @ 2:30 ET - This is a great spot for an over as CFR Cluj is rolling and riding high after a 4-1 road win and they have been one of the strongest clubs in the league again this season. They enter this match averaging 2.4 goals per match this season and they have the highest scoring average in the league. Petrolul Ploiesti is off a 2-2 draw with Otelul Galati and, if they gave up 2 goals to Galati, they are really in trouble here defensively! The fact is CFR Cluj is favored by 1.5 goals on the goal line for a reason here and I am anticipating a 3-1 type match here and a rather easy over. The matches for Petrolul Ploiesti have averaged 3 goals apiece. CFR Cluj is allowing an average of 1 goal per match this season so asking for 3 goals here is really not asking for too much. The last time these clubs met it was a 5-2 CFR Cluj win! They do have injury to a key player who is a right-back player so his defense is important and that hurts the hosts defensively here. 10* OVER 2.5 -105 in CFR Cluj |
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09-18-23 | Botosani v. CSMS Iasi OVER 2.25 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -51.5 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
Rotation #206861: Romania Liga 1: Monday 10* Top Play OVER 2 -130 in Poli Iasi vs FC Botosani @ 11:30 AM ET - The hosts are off a win and so confidence is up but Poli Iasi has not had a draw in any of their 7 matches this season. I am looking for a 2-1 final because I do look for each club to score and the odds favor that there is no draw here. Poli Iasi matches have averaged 3 goals apiece and they will score again here after netting 2 on the road at Universitatea Cluj. At the same time, this is a newly promoted club allowing an average of about 2 goals per match this season. FC Botosani is off a 2-2 draw and is at the bottom of the league table, just below Poli Iasi, so this is an important match for the visitors. They are one of only two clubs, Otelul Galati is the other, that do not have a win yet this season as they are 0-4-4. I don't foresee a draw here however and I do expect FC Botosani to again struggle to stop opponents from scoring. They are allowing an average of 1.5 goals per match this season. This one has 2-1 written all over it as the hosts come in confident but the visitors really needed the off week last weekend and they come in rejuvenated and ready to put up a fight here. 10* OVER 2 -130 in Poli Iasi |
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09-17-23 | Dolphins v. Patriots +3 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -123 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play New England Patriots + vs Miami Dolphins @ 8:20 ET - The dominant number as of early game day morning is 2.5 but there is a little bit of 3 out there. Either way I am looking for an outright win here for the home team but it is nice any time you have a line that sets up where a 2 point loss is still a win as well and that is the case here. First off, I like the home dog factor here. Secondly, I like the fact the Patriots fell short against the Eagles despite outgaining them last week. Did you see how Philly than ran all over the Vikings Thursday? Give this Patriots defense some credit for holding Philly in check last week! As for the Dolphins, they are off a shootout win and I love fading teams off high-scoring wins like that. The fact Miami snuck away with the victory over the Chargers even though they gave up a pile of points and big yardage set this one up well. The Dolphins may not fully realize how much they need to focus on the defensive side of the field for this one. They come in 1-0 but off an effort in which they allowed 34 points plus huge yardage on the ground. After playing in LA last week the Dolphins now go coast to coast for this one and the Pats threw for over 300 yards last week. I know Miami piled up yardage too but their D is a weakness. I trust NE to get some stops here and the Pats offense will be able to move the ball all game long. They threw well against Philly plus the Dolphins proved last week they are susceptible on the ground so the Patriots should enjoy plenty of success here on offense and I expect the defense to hold up. 10* NEW ENGLAND + points |
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09-17-23 | Jets +8.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 10-30 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play New York Jets (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET - The current line on this as of early gameday morning is 8.5 and this an over-reaction to the Cowboys 40-0 win last week and the Jets losing Aaron Rodgers to season-ending injury. Keep in mind, Dallas actually only won the yardage battle by 94 yards last week. That does not equate to a 40-point beatdown of course. That is not much of a yardage edge. The Jets have a very strong defense that can also create havoc and turnovers as the Cowboys did last week. In fact, the Jets proved that with their upset of Buffalo in OT Monday night. I know this is a short week for the Jets but it is still early in the season and you are still talking about fresh bodies that are in much less banged up than as the season goes on. Later in the season, short rest is more of a factor. The Cowboys were originally around a FG favorite in this game. Now they are favored by more than a TD. Take advantage of the line value here. The Cowboys are actually 0-4 ATS the last 4 times they are at home and coming off a game in which they scored 40 or more points! Look for Dallas, known to stumble at home in spots like this, to come in overconfident after last week's big road win over a division rival. Conversely, the Jets are well aware of the blowout win that the Cowboys just delivered in their own stadium (the stadium they share with the Giants) and they will be geared up and well prepared for the upset win here. Their defense will really test Prescott in this one just like they did against the Bills Allen. They may not get the outright upset but I expect this game to be decided by a one score margin. 10* NEW YORK JETS + points |
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09-17-23 | Phillies -125 v. Cardinals | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -125 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
MLB Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -125 @ St Louis Cardinals @ 2:15 ET - The Phillies recently faced Dakota Hudson and gave him trouble. A lot of teams have given him trouble of late. Hudson has allowed 5 or more earned runs now in 3 of his last 4 starts. In that 4 start stretch he has walked 13 and struck out 5. Like Hudson, Taijuan Walker has struggled a bit lately. However, unlike Hudson, Walker has much better BB/SO numbers recently! In his last 4 starts Walker has 10 walks and 22 strikeouts. You can see that Walker, despite giving up more earned runs that usual, has actually been pitching better of late in comparison with Hudson. Digging beyond the expected starting pitchers here (as usual my play is action), the Phillies are 14 games over .500 this season while St Louis is 18 games under .500 on the season. St Louis actually has been worse at home than on the road this season plus the Cards are 41-53 against teams with a winning record this season. Philly is 38-21 against teams with a losing record this season. The Cardinals, after getting drilled again 6-1 yesterday, have lost all 5 games with the Phillies this season and you have to go back to the 2017 season for the last time they won the season series with them. With a reasonable money line on the better team that is a club that is also working hard to clinch a ticket to the post-season again, I will not hesitate to lay the price on the defending NL Champs here again just like yesterday! 10* PHILADELPHIA -125 |
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09-17-23 | Ravens +3.5 v. Bengals | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 7 h 41 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Baltimore Ravens + @ Cincinnati Bengals @ 1 ET - As of early Sunday morning there is still some 3.5 available on this one and even if TE Andrews does not play for Baltimore I do expect them to get the cover in this match-up. Looking for an outright win but we will grab the points just in case. I am aware of RB Dobbins now out for the year for Baltimore. However, have you seen the different running backs the Eagles are using this year and how they ran all over Minnesota Thursday night. The point is that if a team has the right play-calling, a solid offensive line, and is well-coached they get their ground game going no matter who the running backs are. Of course Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is also an ultra-dangerous threat with his legs too and keeps defenses honest. He was not available when Ravens lost at Cincinnati in the post-season last year. The fact is, however, the Ravens significantly outgained the Bengals in their 3 match-ups last season even though the majority of those stats were without starting QB Jackson which, unlike RB, is absolutely an extremely critical position. You see where I am going with this...we are getting even more line value here because of the RB injury for the Ravens. This is a major revenge game for Baltimore and they used last week's blowout win over the Texans as a tune-up for this game. As for Cincinnati, they were in the process of a blowout loss last week at Cleveland. You might think that makes this a great spot for the Bengals but actually they have failed to cover 7 straight times when in the following situation: at home and favored by less than a TD and coming off an ATS loss by a double digit margin. That makes this a play against spot for Cincinnati and I look for this play-against angle to reach 8 WINNERS IN A ROW as this spot is further strengthened by the revenge aspect for the Ravens and the fact this is a division rival too. 10* BALTIMORE +3.5 |
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09-17-23 | Rapid Bucuresti v. Otelul OVER 2.25 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -119 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
Rotation #206869: Romania Liga 1: Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 2 -150 in Otelul Galati vs Rapid Bucuresti @ 12:15 ET - This match is in Galati. Could Rapid be flat after their huge win in Bucuresti by a 4-0 count over city rivals Dinamo? I do believe that to be the case and this could allow Otelul to get the jump in this one. However, Rapid is the favorite for a reason and that is why I am anticipating at least a 2-1 final here. Note that Galati has been king of the draws this season but their scoring is trending upward also and their last two matches have each ended as 2-2 draws. As for Rapid, their last 7 matches have featured 6 totaling at least 3 goals and these 7 matches have averaged 4 goals apiece. Also, their last 6 road matches have all totaled at least 3 goals and so we are testing a 6-0 trend here and those 6 matches have averaged 5.5 goals apiece! 10* OVER 2 -150 in Otelul Galati |
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09-17-23 | Arsenal v. Everton OVER 2.75 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
Rotation #200033: English Premier League: Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 or 3 in Everton vs Arsenal @ 11:30 AM ET - Well aware of Everton's struggles in the goal-scoring department this season but do you think the odds makers are unaware? Of course they are aware and yet they set this total at a 3 for a reason! That said, and now that we are seeing some 2.5 out there as well, I love latching onto the value in this one! Note that Everton always seems to give Arsenal some trouble when they are hosting them and they do catch them off the big win over Manchester United. That said, I do expect Everton to find the back of the net at least once but, of course, Arsenal is the stronger overall club and is favored here for a reason. That is why I am looking for at least a 2-1 final but expecting much more. Note that 3 of Everton's last 4 matches, including one in English Carabao Cup action, have totaled at least 3 goals and 2 of those 3 totaled 4 goals! As for Arsenal, 3 of their last 4 matches have totaled at least 3 goals and their last 2 have totaled 4 goals and all these matches were in EPL action! Arsenal has scored 11 goals in last 4 matches with Everton but the latter have totaled 3 goals in the last two matches as a host. This game will play out with much more attacking and scoring opportunities than many are expecting. That said, take advantage of the line value here! 10* OVER 2.5 or 3 in Everton |
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09-17-23 | Voluntari v. Hermannstadt OVER 2.25 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
Rotation #206877: Romania Liga 1: Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 2 -145 in Hermannstadt vs Voluntari @ 10 AM ET - Getting an over 2, even at extra juice, is well worth it here. 2 goals is, of course, a key number in soccer totals and now take a look at these two clubs. Hermannstadt is at home and off 3 straight draws. The hosts are very hungry for a victory and the draws were 2-2, 2-2 and 1-1. An average of 3.3 goals per match and more of the same here. Voluntari has had 11 straight matches total at least 2 goals and their last 5 have totaled 3 or more so we are testing a 5-0 trend here by going with the over in this one. Note that those 11 matches averaged 4 goals apiece and these past 5 matches have averaged 4.2 goals apiece. This is an excellent value here. The last 3 meetings between these clubs have also all totaled 2 or more goals and averaged 2.7 goals apiece. 10* OVER 2 -145 in Hermanndstadt |
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09-17-23 | Chelsea v. AFC Bournemouth OVER 3 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 56 m | Show |
Rotation #200029: English Premier League: Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 or 3 in Bournemouth vs Chelsea @ 9 AM ET - Bournemouth trying to be more aggressive on the attack this season and they should be able to get one past Chelsea here. However, the visitors are desperate to get going again as they have disappointed early this season despite all their firepower. Chelsea will be very aggressive on the attack here and they have scored at least 2 goals in each of last 4 meetings with Bournemouth. Those matches have seen 3 of the 4 total at least 3 goals and more of the same expected here. Chelsea is off a 1-0 loss but had won 2 straight and scored 5 goals in their two prior matches including one in English Carabao Cup action. 3 of Bournemouth's last 4 matches, including one in English Carabao Cup action, have totaled at least 4 goals and that is what I am expecting here as well. 10* OVER 2.5 or 3 in Bournemouth |
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09-16-23 | Wyoming +30 v. Texas | Top | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Wyoming Cowboys + @ Texas Longhorns @ 8 ET - The Cowboys are catching the Longhorns at the right time to hang tough in this game. There is a lot of value here with Wyoming currently catching as much as 30 points as of early gameday morning. This Cowboys defense returned virtually everyone from last season's team and they are very solid on that side of the ball. Texas is off the huge win in upset fashion at Alabama last week and they have their Big 12 opener next week. Not only that, it is nearby Baylor who they are facing. The Longhorns and Bears do not get along at all. They are rivals and do not like each other so this is absolutely a sandwich spot for Texas. The Horns off the upset of Crimson Tide and opening their Big 12 portion of the season next week. Of course I am not saying the Longhorns lose this game but I just can not see them winning by more than 2 or 3 touchdowns. Wyoming has confidence from the OT win versus Texas Tech. Remember the Red Raiders beat this UT team last year! Again, I am not saying Wyoming is as good as is Texas Tech and the Red Raiders are as good as Texas! Not at all! I am just saying that you can see the Cowboys will not be intimidated here and they have a veteran defense and they have the added confidence of a 2-0 start. I think UT has been very benefited by the turnover margin early this season and this is the type of game where some of those bounces finally do not go their way. The Cowboys will hang around in this one and stay inside the inflated number. 10* WYOMING + points |
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09-16-23 | Phillies -106 v. Cardinals | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
MLB Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -110 @ 7:15 ET - The Phillies recently faced Miles Mikolas and gave him trouble. A lot of teams have given him trouble of late. Mikolas has allowed 27 earned runs in 35 innings over his last 6 starts. He has allowed 10 homers in his last 7 starts. Like Mikolas, Ranger Suarez has a sub-par W-L record this season. However, unlike Mikolas, Suarez has actually been pitching better of late. Suarez has allowed an average of 2 earned over his last 5 starts and those starts have seen him average 6 innings per start. The Phillies southpaw is flying under the radar a bit right now yet he actually has been quite solid including 28 strikeouts over his last 22 innings. The Phillies are 13 games over .500 this season while St Louis is 17 games under .500 on the season. St Louis actually has been worse at home than on the road this season plus the Cards are 41-52 against teams with a winning record this season. Philly is 37-21 against teams with a losing record this season. St Louis is 38-60 in night games this season. The Cardinals have lost all 4 games with the Phillies this season and you have to go back to the 2017 season for the last time they won the season series with them. 10* PHILADELPHIA -110 |
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09-16-23 | Ottawa +10 v. BC | Top | 37-41 | Win | 100 | 15 h 28 m | Show |
CFL Saturday 10* Top Play Ottawa Redblacks (+) @ BC Lions @ 7 ET - This line available as high as a 10 as of overnight hours heading into Saturday. Love this spot for a road dog cover. Yes, the Redblacks are on a losing streak but they have been very competitive and will not back down from the Lions here. Yes, BC is a strong team and at home with rest but if you look at their stats in recent weeks they have not been impressive. The Lions have shown some issues, particularly on defense, and I expect this scrappy Ottawa bunch to hang around in this one. The Redblacks have played 12 games this season and, though they have lost 6 straight and 9 of 12, look at home competitive they have been. Only two of their games have been losses by more than 10 points and those featured margins of defeat of just 11 and 13 points. Take out a 19 point win that Ottawa had and look at the average margin of their other 11 games (including all 9 losses) and you will come to an average of 5.8 ppg. Again, this line is just too much in a game likely to be decided by a TD or less. BC was dominating earlier this season but they are just 2-3 SU last 5 games and one of those wins was by a single digit margin. This one goes to the wire! 10* OTTAWA (+) points |
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09-16-23 | Tulane v. Southern Miss OVER 48.5 | Top | 21-3 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Southern Miss Golden Eagles vs Tulane Green Wave @ 4 ET - I am expecting starting QB Michael Pratt to go in this one even though he is a game time decision. In my opinion that is keep this total - currently as low as 48.5 - lower than it should be as of early game day morning. Pratt is expected to suit up here and go through warm-ups and has been increasing practice throughout the week. The feeling here is they did not want to risk him last week in a tough match-up against SEC foe Mississippi. Kai Horton got the start in that game and I am 100% comfortable if he goes again here. That is because Southern Miss has a defense that pales in comparison to an SEC defense! The Green Wave will move the ball well here as they seek revenge for last season's loss to the Golden Eagles which also means Tulane will not take their foot off the gas in this one. Southern Miss did allow 66 points last week. I do expect the Eagles to struggle again here on that side of the ball but they will score better at home as well. Southern Miss has averaged scoring 32.6 ppg last 8 home games. The Green Wave are coming off a huge season and are very talented offensively and scored 37 in Week 1 before struggling against Ole Miss last week - a strong SEC team. Both teams has played 2 games so far this season and all 4 of these games have totaled at least 54 points and this one will as well. Tulane averaged 36 ppg last season and they will likely repeat that average again this year. A lot of value with the low posted total here. 10* OVER the total in Southern Miss |
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09-16-23 | Sepsi v. CS U Craiova OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
Rotation #206881: Romania Liga 1: Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 -105 in Universitatea Craiova vs Sepsi @ 2:30 ET - 3 of last 4 Universitatea Craiova matches have totaled at least 3 goals and these 4 matches have averaged 3.3 goals apiece. Sepsi is off a 1-0 win but this was preceded by 3 straight matches - across all competitions - in which they both scored and conceded a goal. Those 3 matches averaged 3.7 goals apiece and we will see more of the same here. There is a reason this one is priced at 2.5 goals even though Universitatea Craiova is off a shutout loss and Sepsi is off a shutout win. 10* OVER 2.5 in Universitatea Craiova |
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09-16-23 | Brentford v. Newcastle United OVER 2.75 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
Rotation #200025: English Premier League: Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 or 3 in Newcastle United vs Brentford Bees @ 12:30 ET - This is a great situation for expecting plenty of goals! Newcastle is fired up and at home where they tend to score very well. Brentford is a tough foe that score well anywhere and will not be intimidated in this one and will not back down. Newcastle began this season with a 5-1 drubbing of Aston Villa but have since lost 3 straight. While a 1-0 loss to Man City was understandable, a 2-1 loss to 10-man Liverpool was not. Then Newcastle was unable to shake off that unimaginable loss and got hammered 3-1 by Brighton & Hove in their next match. That is why, after a much-needed week off as well, Newcastle will be at their best here. However, Brentford has scored an average of 2 goals in their 4 league matches this season and we'll see goals here. The last 4 meetings between these clubs have averaged 4 goals apiece. I expect the same here given the situation here and the hunger of the hosts and the solid attacking capabilities of the visitors in this one. 10* OVER 2.5 or 3 in Newcastle United |
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09-16-23 | Penn State -14 v. Illinois | Top | 30-13 | Win | 100 | 5 h 8 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Penn State Nittany Lions (-) @ Illinois Illini @ Noon ET - This line is holding at 14 as of early game day morning. Remember 2 weeks ago when Penn State punched it in late (just seconds left on the clock) for a "meaningless" TD against West Virginia that gave them a 23 point win in a game in which they were favored by 20 points? That is the kind of stuff to keep in mind when you are contemplating whether or not you are comfortable laying big points with a team. This Nittany Lions team is off to a hot start and yes I know they played an outclassed Delaware team last week but the fact is PSU is rolling with confidence on both sides of the ball right now. This is a much different situation than the last time they faced Illinois and this Illini defense is also much weaker than that one. That match-up I am referring to was only 2 years ago in 2021 but the Nittany Lions entered that game off their first loss of the season. They were demoralized and flat after their 5-0 start to the season came crashing to a halt against Iowa. Penn State went on to lose to Illinois in a crazy OT game of defensive prowess that took forever to finish in a multi-OT slugfest. Things are much different this time around and the Illini do not look nearly as strong for this rematch. Their defense is not as strong and Illinois is 0-2 ATS because they barely got by a MAC team in Week 1 and then got hammered by Kansas last week. Certainly Toledo is a respectable opponent and the Jayhawks are much more respectable than they used to be. However, now the Illini face a revenge-minded and stacked Penn State team that will not hesitate to pile up points even with a big late lead. I expect this one to possibly be tight early for a bit but eventually the much stronger road team pulls away for a win by at least a 3 TD margin the way I see it. There is also a perfect trend here that has gone undefeated the last 14 times involving Penn State. That is that when the Nittany Lions are entering a match-up against a conference foe and PSU is coming off B2B wins both SU and ATS, they have not failed to cover in any of the last 14. There is one push in the bunch and we could see a push here if this one lands on 14 but I am looking for another win by 20+ for this road team! 10* PENN STATE (-) |
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09-16-23 | Manchester City v. West Ham United OVER 2.75 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
Rotation #200021: English Premier League: Saturday 10* OVER 2.5 or 3 in West Ham United vs Manchester City @ 10 AM ET - Both clubs are off to strong starts this season and have a lot of attacking confidence. Even though Manchester City is without Kevin De Bruyne and Jack Grealish right now, they still have plenty of attacking talent including Erling Haaland of course. West Ham is scoring an average of 2.3 goals per match this season in EPL action while Manchester City is scoring an average of 2.8 goals per match this season in league action. Each of the last 3 West Ham United matches have totaled at least 3 goals. As for Manchester City, 3 of last 4 EPL matches have totaled at least 3 goals and that includes a huge 5-1 win in their most recent match in league action. 3 of the last 4 meetings between these clubs have totaled at least 3 goals and Manchester City has scored at least 2 goals in all 4 of those. I am looking for at least a 2-1 final here but expecting much more as City will be tough to stop but their attacking style will also make West Ham dangerous on the counter-attack. 10* OVER 2.5 or 3 in West Ham United |
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09-15-23 | Edmonton Elks v. Saskatchewan OVER 46.5 | Top | 36-27 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
CFL Friday 10* Top Play OVER 46.5 in Saskatchewan Roughriders vs Edmonton Elks @ 9:30 ET - Good weather here and I love the fact that Edmonton has been winning some games and their confidence is up. Saskatchewan just got rocked 51 to 6 at Winnipeg. I am sure the Roughriders will bring a much better effort here and score plenty of points but I certainly can not trust their defense. The way the Elks are going they will move the ball here. Edmonton has scored an average of 28 points in their last 5 games! As for the Riders, they have averaged 31 points in their last 4 home games. This total is a bargain in the mid-40s with good weather expected here also. 10* OVER 46.5 in Saskatchewan |
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09-15-23 | Astros v. Royals OVER 9.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros @ 8:10 ET - Greinke has been working out of the bullpen recently for the Royals as well and honestly whether he starts here or is a bulk reliever out of the bullpen or whatever the case may be, I look for the Royals league-worst bullpen to get pounded here. KC has a very bad bullpen and the Astros will be scoring runs early and often in this one. The key for the Royals though is they have been hitting better overall for quite a stretch long-term now plus they do tend to hit better when at home. So when you factor that in, we should both teams scoring well in this one. I am not too concerned with the Astros starter here but will mention that it is expected to be Cristian Javier. Not only does he have a 5.51 ERA on the road this season, he has a 5.58 ERA overall since the all star break. I am expecting at least a dozen runs in this one given all of the above and certainly at least getting to double digits should not be a problem. 10* OVER 9.5 in Kansas City |
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09-15-23 | Army v. UTSA -7.5 | Top | 37-29 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
CFB Friday 10* Top Play UTSA Roadrunners (-) vs Army Black Knights @ 7 ET - Maybe we will see -7 on this but I want to get this play written up and out to all my customers and the current number is 7.5 and 8 as of Friday morning. Army has some impressive stats already but they played Delaware State - an FCS school - and UL Monroe. Note that the latter (the Warhawks) have won only 8 games the past 3 seasons combined! The Black Knights are a solid scrappy team and can be a tough underdog. But they gave up a pile of points to the Roadrunners last season. I know that Army also scored well in that one but I look for the Runners to be much tougher defensively at home in the rematch. I know UTSA has not been overly impressive early this season but they faced a couple of in-state foes that really had it out for them. Texas State is improved - already upset Baylor - and Houston is a tough in-state foe. In terms of strength of schedule, it is really night and day between these two teams so far this season. Adding to the value here is that UTSA is fully aware that they will NOT have another home game until mid-October! So this is it until a month from now and they will make this one count and they will be relentless. Note that this line was double digits and now has moved down to almost a 7. I love spots like this where the betting markets have adjusted a line substantially. More often than not the move is not warranted. I get it that Army can be a tough dog but this Runners team is solid and has been great under the current regime and won about 75% of its games over 4+ seasons! In terms of covering the spread here, Army's last 8 losses in true road games have seen 6 come by a double digit margin. That is a 75% rate of double digit losses in road defeats in recent seasons that dates back to the 2020 season. More of the same here. 10* UTSA (-) |
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09-15-23 | U Craiova 1948 v. Dinamo Bucuresti OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -112 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
Rotation #206873: Romania Liga 1: Friday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 in Dinamo Bucuresti vs FCU 1948 Craiova @ 2:30 ET - Dinamo is off a 4-0 loss and FCU 1948 Craiova is off a 4-0 win. Back at home, Dinamo will score better here but their defensive play and netminding continues to struggle and they will not be able to stop FCU 1948 Craiova in this one. The goals have really been flying in FCU 1948 Craiova. No club in the league has scored more (18) OR conceded more (18) than this club. Indeed the average goals scored in FCU 1948 Craiova matches this season is 4.5 and that is a crazy number. Each of their last 4 matches have totaled at least 4 goals! As for Dinamo, 2 of their last 3 matches have totaled at least 4 goals. Also, Dinamo had averaged scoring 1.5 goals and scored in all 4 matches in a 4-match stretch preceding that 4-0 loss in their most recent match. They will bounce back here but they will struggle to slow down the current goal-scoring matching that is FCU 1948 Craiova. 10* OVER 2.5 in Dinamo Bucuresti |
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09-15-23 | Universitatea Cluj v. UTA Arad OVER 2.25 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -103 | 4 h 6 m | Show |
Rotation #206857: Romania Liga 1: Friday 10* Top Play OVER 2 -140 in UTA vs Universitatea Cluj @ 11:30 AM ET - UTA gets their manager back on the sidelines for this after he suffered a heart attack 3 weeks ago. The players will go all out for him here I am sure. At the same time, the visitors (Universitatea Cluj) are very hungry for a win and will be pushing hard here. They also recently welcomed back their manager as he had left the team after last season due to health concerns and needing some time away. He could not stay away however and wanted to get back to working with his club. Both teams were happy for the week off last week and will come out fresh and pushing hard for the full 3 points in the table here. UTA has allowed 1.5 goals per match and Universitatea Cluj has allowed 2 goals per match this season and I am expecting at least a 2-1 final here. UTA has only one draw in their 7 matches this season and they will not settle for one here either. 10* OVER 2 -140 in UTA |
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09-14-23 | Vikings +6 v. Eagles | Top | 28-34 | Push | 0 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Minnesota Vikings + points @ Philadelphia Eagles @ 8:15 ET - Sure I would rather have 7+ points in this game rather than the current number of 6 or 6.5 as of early gameday but I am not going to let the line movement sway my original thoughts on this one. Those are summarized in the fact that this is a tough spot for the Eagles to win, let alone win big! Note that the Eagles were outplayed last week at New England. We had Philly and though they were up 16-0 at one point early on they really were fortunate and we were fortunate to get the win and cover there as they hung on for dear life late. Conversely the Vikings were done in by 3 turnovers in the home loss to Tampa Bay last week. Philly off a fortunate win and not realizing how badly they played because they still won. Vikings off an unfortunate loss and can't wait to get back on the field. That said, I love having the points in this match-up as Minnesota goes for revenge and they are angry too. They lost here last season but went 13-3 in the rest of their regular season games last season! Last week, the Eagles barely beat a Patriots team that is a mediocre .500 team the last three YEARS combined! In terms of technical angles, in the first quarter (four games) of a season the Eagles have lost 12 of 13 ATS when they are favored against a team that has a losing record and is off an ATS loss. Also, in early season (first quarter) games in the season like this, Philly has lost 14 of 18 ATS when facing a team with revenge. The key is the situation here and how these teams TRULY played last week and the fact we get about 6 points to work with here as well. However, I will also mention an interesting stat that the Eagles have gone 0-7 ATS when they have a Monday Night game on deck. Up next for Philly is a Monday night affair at Tampa Bay and I think the Eagles will think their overall clout and home field will be enough here versus the Vikings but this Philly team has issues on both sides of the ball right now. Minnesota got embarrassed here in an early season primetime game last season and they make up for that here in a big way as the Vikings might even pull off the shocker upset but I see at least a cover here. That said, I expect the play against trend involving the Eagles here makes it 8 IN A ROW in this one! 10* MINNESOTA + points |
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09-14-23 | Navy v. Memphis -14 | Top | 24-28 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
CFB Thursday 10* Top Play Memphis Tigers -14 vs Navy Midshipmen @ 7:30 ET - Longtime followers know I am not big on laying big points in any sport. However, on occasion - when the situation is right - I will not hesitate to step in and lay the lumber. This is one of those rare cases. The Midshipmen are only as good as their QB. It has been that way for a long time and it is not changing anytime soon because they are so dependent on him with the type of offense they play. That said, scoring 24 points on Wagner in game they were favored by 42 points is not a good sign. Remember this was on the heels of a season opening shellacking at the hands of Notre Dame. Navy scored only 3 points in that game. No the Tigers are not the Fighting Irish. However, the Midshipmen have missed the mark ATS by at least 18 points in each of their first two games. That said, I have no hesitation here in rolling with a Memphis team that is so strong offensively that they can pile up big points here and Navy will not be able to keep up. Yes the Tigers faced overmatched Bethune-Cookman and Arkansas State so far but still they have looked solid on both sides of the ball. The way Memphis can score points very quickly and very well and the fact the D looked good against a Red Wolves team that averaged 25 points per game on offense in each of the first two seasons under head coach Butch Jones, don't be surprised if the Tigers roll huge here at home. Remember that big win last week was at Arkansas State and now they are at home here for this visit from Navy. 10* MEMPHIS -14 |
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09-14-23 | OFK Pirin v. Levski Sofia OVER 2.75 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -124 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
Rotation #212401: Bulgaria Parva Liga: Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 -140 in Levski Sofia vs Pirin Blagoevgrad @ 1:30 ET - Levski Sofia is at home and favored by 2 goals on the goal line for good reason. I am banking on at least a 2-1 final here but 3-0 or even 3-1 or 4-1 is just as likely. The hosts will be relentless here as they are the vastly superior club and scoring an average of 2 goals per match this season. The reason they will be aggressive here is because in their last two league meetings with Pirin Blagoevgrad they won one only 1-0 and the other was a 1-1 draw. If you look each of the other 6 meetings across all competitions between these clubs in recent years, all 6 totaled at least 3 goals! Levski Sofia scored an average 2.7 goals per match and won all 6 of those matches. After what happened last season in their meetings in the regular season plus the way things have begun this season, there is every reason to expect a home blowout here and that means this one gets to 3 or more goals. 10* OVER 2.5 -140 in Levski Sofia |
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09-14-23 | Reds v. Tigers OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Detroit Tigers vs Cincinnati Reds @ 1:10 ET - The first game in this series was 5-5 after 5 innings and they had to go all the way to the 10th inning with no scoring before finally Cincy scored a run and ended up getting the win. That was Tuesday and then yesterday's game was 4-3 after 4 innings but, again a long scoreless lull and no one scored the rest of the way and the Reds won another one-run game. Two of the best bullpens in baseball, right? Actually NO and that is why I really like the over in this early day game Thursday. The Reds are a little better than the Tigers in terms of bullpen ERA but still these two teams are both middle of the pack at best really when it comes to relievers. Derek Law expected to be an opener here for the Reds but Ben Lively likely to get most of the bulk work after returning from covid. Neither guy scares me at all and the Tigers will score well here. The Reds also should pound away. I know Reese Olson has had a couple strong outings but that was against a bad White Sox team and also does not change the fact he has struggled often this season. In fact, from late July to late August, Olson allowed at least 4 earned runs in 5 of 6 starts. He struggles again here the way I see it and both teams score big and we take advantage of the line move from 9 down to an 8.5 on this one. 10* OVER 8.5 in Detroit |
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09-14-23 | Nationals v. Pirates OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals @ 12:35 ET - As written in Monday's write-up involving this series, this one relates to a late season strategy that has worked quite well for me through the years. Here you have a match-up featuring two teams whose seasons are over. Yes I know that mathematically each one of these teams is still alive in the wild card race but realistically neither team is. The Nationals are dead last in the NL East and the Pirates are in 4th place in the NL Central and both clubs are looking to build toward next season. When there is no playoff pressure, hitters can really relax at the plate. So here you have a situation of relaxed batting lineups. We also have a Pirates bullpen that ranks only in the middle of the pack this season while the Nationals bullpen is dead last in the National League based on team ERA. That said, we should see runs throughout this one. The Pirates are likely starting Mitch Keller here and he is 2-5 with a 6.09 ERA in his last ten starts as he is really struggling. The Nationals are expected to start Josiah Gray and he is having a rough season and is slumping again of late. His only start this month did not go well and he went 0-3 with an 8.84 ERA in his 5 starts in the month of August. We have a rather low total to work with here (8.5 as of gameday morning) and the Pirates have averaged scoring a respectable 4.5 runs per game last 15 games. Pittsburgh has allowed 6 runs per game in last 8 home games. The Nationals have seen 8 of last 11 games total double digits in runs. I am expecting this one will too! 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh |
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09-13-23 | Braves v. Phillies +1.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 -105 vs Atlanta Braves @ 6:40 ET - Getting the Phillies at a pick'em price on the run line here is a bargain price. The Braves have taken 2 of 3 so far in this series but both their wins were in extra innings. Strider is the big name pitcher here but he is off a rough outing and has been dealing with an illness. He is over-priced here. He could struggle again just like the prior start and may not be fully recovered from his illness that pushed this start back. Strider is the big name guy so the markets are all over the Braves here. The Phillies, however, continue to fly under the radar compared to the Braves. This Phillies team is a strong team and was in the World Series last year. Sanchez is flying under the radar too because his record is not that impressive. This guy hardly ever gives up much on the mound and Atlanta has no significant experience against him. He is likely to be a pleasant surprise for Philadelphia here as a result. The Braves have coughed up the lead in the bottom of the 9th of both of their wins in this series. There is a lot of value with the +1.5 runs here. The Phillies, at +1.5, would be 8-2 (80%) last 10 games and one of those two losses was in extra innings by two runs. Philadelphia had won 17 of 26 at home before yesterday's extra innings loss and I look for Strider to struggle again while Sanchez surprises. Sanchez has quietly allowed 2 or less earned runs in 7 of his last 9 starts. 10* PHILADELPHIA +1.5 -105 |
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09-13-23 | The New Saints v. Bala Town OVER 3 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -130 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
Rotation #224141: Welsh Premier League: Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 3 goals -130 in Bala Town vs The New Saints @ 2:45 ET - The New Saints are rolling and at the top of the league and have averaged 3.2 goals scored per match this season. Bala Town is off a 3-0 loss in Scottish League Challenge Cup but this was preceded by scoring at least 1 goal and earning at least a draw in each of their last 3 matches in league action. In the Welsh Cup last season, The New Saints crushed Bala Town 6-0 and so revenge is on the minds of the hosts here. The fact this one is on their home pitch gives them good odds at a competitive affair but they will have to score plenty to keep up with the high-powered attack of the league-leading Saints. That said, look for this one to end 2-2 or 3-2 the way I see it and we should see plenty of goals in this one. 10* OVER 3 goals -130 in Bala Town |
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09-13-23 | Rays v. Twins OVER 9 | Top | 5-4 | Push | 0 | 7 h 55 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Minnesota Twins vs Tampa Bay Rays @ 1:10 ET - Keuchel has seen his better years. Yes, he is off a good start but that was preceded by a rough one. Overall, he has struggled with command at times, his strikeouts are down, and he could struggle again here after a rare decent start. I will challenge him to make good B2B starts. As for the Rays Taj Bradley, he is off a start in which he allowed 3 homers and that was at home. In his last two road starts Bradley has walked 9 in 8 and 1/3 innings! He has allowed 12 homers in his last 8 starts and this total is being held at a 9 for a reason. Yesterday's game stayed under the total but the bats come back to life in this early afternoon game Wednesday. Very pleasant weather expected for this one. Rays had won 7 of 9 games and scored an average of 5.3 runs last 10 games prior to yesterday's 3-2 loss. The Twins are 7-4 last 11 games and have scored an average of 6.2 runs per game during this stretch. 10* OVER 9 in Minnesota |
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09-13-23 | Posusje v. Zrinjski OVER 2.75 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
Rotation #211601: Premier League of Bosnia and Herzegovina: Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 goals -130 in Zrinjski vs Posusje @ 12:30 ET - This total has dropped some from its opener so we have excellent line value here. Posusje is off 4-0 win but allowed 7 goals in their 4 matches preceding that one. They have scored at least 1 goal in 4 of 5 matches this season. They have had no draws. That said, odds favor at least a 2-1 final here. Zrinjski has also been playing in the Europa League action where they conceded at least 1 goal in all 4 matches and allowed an average of 1.5 goals per match. They did score in 3 of those 4 matches as well. But, in their domestic Premier League action the goals have really been flying with B2B wins by a combined score of 8-4 so an average score of 4-2 and 6 goals per match! 10* OVER 2.5 goals -130 |
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09-12-23 | Guardians v. Giants OVER 8 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 8 or 8.5 in San Francisco Giants vs Cleveland Guardians @ 9:45 ET - Going to test the 6-0 run here as this total is an 8 or 8.5 so we need 9 runs to be a winner and each of the Giants last 6 games have all totaled at least 9 runs! San Francisco has scored 6.5 runs per game during this stretch but also conceded 6 runs per game during this stretch of 6 games. The Giants are feeling it right now with 4 straight wins and should hit Quantrill hard here but don't be surprised if Manaea gives up big runs here as well. Cleveland has lost 3 straight but this was on the heels of a 7-5 stretch in which they scored an average of 5 runs per game. They will take advantage of an inconsistent Manaea making his first start in 4 months. His bulk relief has not been great and this is essentially a bullpen game and Alex Wood and Jakob Junis could see bulk relief time as well and they both have had rough patches recently as well. So no matter the starters here I like the over and I will note that Quantrill has been good since his return but he faced a downtrodden Angels team in most recent start. The start previous to that was solid also except he had more walks than strikeouts there. So I am not sold on him just yet as he is working his way back into top form after having not started since early July and having endured a number of rough stretches this season. 10* OVER 8 or 8.5 in San Francisco |
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09-12-23 | Cubs v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 11.5 in Colorado Rockies vs Chicago Cubs @ 8:40 ET - Assad coming off a tough start in which he did not register a single strikeout. He struggled against the Rockies in his lone appearance against them last season and now he makes his first ever start at Coors Field. This is a tough spot for Assad and weather conditions look good for this one in Denver and the ball carries so well here. The Rockies counter with Flexen and he had some good starts (mildly good at least) once he settled in a bit after coming over from Seattle in the summer but now the struggles are quickly resuming. Flexen is having a rough September with both starts, including one at home, being very tough. He has been rocked for much of this season and most of his outings in a Rockies uniform as well and Coors Field is the least pitcher-friendly ballpark in the majors. That said, the runs keep piling up here as both starters get rocked plus the Rockies bullpen ranks as one of the worst in the majors. Asking for a dozen or more runs here is not asking too much! 10* OVER 11.5 in Colorado |
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09-12-23 | Cyprus v. Spain OVER 4 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
Rotation #225581: Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage: Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 4 in Spain vs Cyprus @ 2:45 ET - Spain will be playing a number of young players again that want to prove themselves and it was no accident that these guys just hammered Georgia 7 to 1. Spain is loaded with talent and, again, the youth movement with players wanting to show they are ready to take things to the next level insures that plenty of aggression on the attack will again be on display here. Perhaps Cyprus can manage to score 1 goal just like Georgia did but, either way, I like the over here. Do not let the big total scare you away. Spain is favored by 3.5 goals on the goal line for a reason. I am looking for a 4-1 or 5-1 type match but, even if this over-matched Cyprus club can not score, note that 5-0 or 6-0 still works just as well for cashing this ticket. Cyprus just does not have the talent level to compete here and they are on the road so the hosts will be relentless in putting on a show for the home crowd as well. 10* OVER 4 in Spain |
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09-12-23 | Saudi Arabia v. South Korea OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
Rotation #210021: International Friendlies: Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 +115 in Saudi Arabia vs South Korea @ 12:30 ET @ St James's Park in Newcastle, UK - Saudi Arabia will enjoy the new manager bounce here with the recent appointment of new manager Roberto Mancini. Also, there is a lot of excitement in the program overall after all the recent big signings of players coming to play in Saudi Arabia leagues plus, for the program, that shocking 2-1 win over Argentina in November in the World Cup still resonates. However, they enter this match off a disappointing 3-1 loss to Costa Rica in a match played Friday here at St James Park also. That was their 4th straight match to total at least 3 goals and I expect that trend to continue here. I know they have a long history of low-scoring battles with South Korea but much of that his older history. In the here and now, South Korea is also hungry to get off the schneid and they enter this match off a scoreless draw. So you have two very hungry clubs here looking for goals and to achieve a victory. I like some of the market pricing here too and feel that is an indicator of what to expect here as well. 10* OVER 2.5 +115 in Saudi Arabia |
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09-11-23 | Bills -127 v. Jets | Top | 16-22 | Loss | -127 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
NFL Monday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills (-) @ New York Jets @ 8:15 ET - The Bills will be ready here. The Jets beat them last season in the game here in early November. That one moved the Jets to 6-3 on the season. After that game, the Jets lost 7 of 8 the rest of the way including a loss at Buffalo. Yes the Jets are improved but all the hype about Aaron Rodgers will also put a target on their backs. The Bills come in fired up after another dismissal from the playoffs and you know that Josh Allen wants redemption here after he and his teammates could not get it done in the post-season game in January. So lets look closely at this one. The Jets are improving and are respectable but they wrapped up last season with 6 straight losses. This is still a New York team that has TOTALED only 13 wins the last 3 seasons. Conversely, this is a Buffalo team that has AVERAGED 13 wins the last 4 seasons! The Bills are consistent, well-coached, and I like Allen to have a bigger game than Rodgers here. With Buffalo on the road for this one we get a very reasonable line to work with here and I am willing to lay it! Currently this line, as of very early game day morning, is available in the 1.5 to 2 range on the spread or 120 to 130 range on the money line. This is a helluva strong value in my opinion. The Bills lost 3 games all of last season and by a TOTAL of only 8 points! That is an average of 2.7 points per defeat. The Jets lost 10 games all of last season and that was by an average of 9.6 points per defeat! If one team pulls away in this game for a dominant win, who do you think would when you consider numbers like this? As we all know, strange things can happen in a game because after all, it is a GAME. However, I am merely pointing out that I do not think enough has changed for the Bills OR for the Jets from last season to this season to warrant this line. Has Buffalo regressed that much? Have the Jets improved that much? I am willing to put both those hypotheses to the test here because I personally do not believe that. Remember the Bills lost just 3 regular season games last season. This was one of JUST three so they remember losing here. They also have been waiting to get back on the field ever since the disappointing playoff loss to the Bengals. This is going to be a hungry road team here that will be tenacious all night long. Lay it! 10* BUFFALO (-) |
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09-11-23 | Nationals v. Pirates OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals @ 6:35 ET - This one relates to a late season strategy that has worked quite well for me through the years. Here you have a match-up featuring two teams whose seasons are over. Yes I know that mathematically each one of these teams is still alive in the wild card race but realistically neither team is. The Nationals are dead last in the NL East and the Pirates are in 4th place in the NL Central and both clubs are looking to build toward next season. When there is no playoff pressure, hitters can really relax at the plate. So here you have a situation of relaxed batting lineups. We also have a Pirates bullpen that ranks only in the middle of the pack this season while the Nationals bullpen is one of the worst in the majors. That said, we should see runs throughout this one. The Pirates have not named a starting pitcher yet and I am not concerned who starts. The Nationals are expected to start Patrick Corbin and he is having another rough season and is slumping again of late. We have a rather low total to work with here (8.5 as of gameday morning) and the Pirates have averaged scoring a respectable 4.5 runs per game last dozen games. Pittsburgh has allowed 6.6 runs per game in last 5 home games. The Nationals have seen 7 of last 8 games total double digits in runs. I am expecting this one will too! 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh |
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09-11-23 | Bosnia and Herzegovina v. Iceland OVER 2 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -130 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
Rotation #225541: European Championship Qualifying, Group Stage: Monday 10* Top Play OVER 2 -130 in Iceland vs Bosnia and Herzegovina @ 2:45 ET - Iceland is playing the first of 3 straight home matches so there is still a glimmer of hope for them in this competition. 5 of their last 6 matches have totaled at least 3 goals and I am expecting a 2-1 type of match here. We get extra line value here since this total is available at 2 goals. That is a huge value and I expect each club to get on the board which means at least a 1-1 match here but, again, look for a big push for that deciding goal here. Bosnia and Herzegovina very nearly let a 2-0 lead slip away against Liechtenstein in a 2-1 win in most recent match so they will be aggressive here and did beat Iceland 3-0 when these clubs met in March. Bosnia and Herzegovina should again have some success finding the back of the net here but also note that they have allowed an average of 2 goals per match since that victory. Iceland has lost 5 of last 6 matches and scored 7 goals in the lone win (over Liechtenstein) but allowed 2 goals per match in the 5 losses. You can see why, given the above stats and the situational aspect here of how these clubs enter this match, we can expect solid scoring here. 10* OVER 2 -130 in Iceland |
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09-11-23 | Croatia v. Armenia OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
Rotation #225537: European Championship Qualifying, Group Stage: Monday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 in Armenia vs Croatia @ Noon ET - Armenia is paying the price for sitting on a 1-0 lead in most recent match and that ended up a 1-1 draw with Turkey. Considering that, plus the fact they are at home here, Armenia should be quite aggressive in this match. However, Croatia is a big favorite here for a reason and coming off a huge 5-0 win in most recent match. You can see why I am expecting goals here. Croatia also scored 4 goals in most recent road match - in terms of a true road match rather than neutral site - as they won 4-2 at Netherlands in a Nations League match. That said, I am confident in their scoring ability again here and do not feel Armenia can stop them. Armenia has scored and conceded in 5 straight matches and 7 of last 8 so the signs are definitely pointing toward goals in this one. Before the 1-1 draw with Turkey, 9 of the last 10 Armenia matches totaled at least 3 goals. Overall, the hosts last 11 matches have averaged 4 goals apiece! More of the same here. 10* OVER 2.5 in Armenia |
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09-10-23 | Cowboys -3 v. Giants | Top | 40-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Dallas Cowboys (-) @ New York Giants @ 8:20 ET - The Giants deserve some respect here but the Cowboys continue to have their number. I just do not see that changing here. Note that the Giants entered last season having gone 14-35 the 3 prior seasons. Then last year they made the post-season and even won a playoff game before getting blasted by the Eagles. However, New York started last season 6-1 and then went 3-6-1 the rest of the way in the regular season. This means that we are still talking about a team that, outside of last year's hot start to the season, has gone 17-41-1 in their other 59 regular season games the past 4 seasons. Yes, the Giants certainly showed improvement last season as they even made playoffs. However, isn't it concerning they won those games early in the season and then struggled the rest of the way? This is a classic case of getting line value because the better team in the match-up is on the road. With a line of -3, we are basically just asking the Cowboys to win this game. Dallas has actually had tremendous success in this role as they have covered 20 of last 23 (excluding pushes) when they are a divisional favorite of more than two points. The Giants, when I look at their receivers, just do not have the talent level to match a determined Dak Prescott with his bolstered receiving group and I feel the Cowboys will eventually put away in this game. Value with the short road favorite here. Lay it. 10* DALLAS (-) |
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09-10-23 | Rockies v. Giants OVER 8 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies @ 8:10 ET - Yes it is an evening game in San Francisco but an early start time of 5:10 since it is the Sunday night game so there will still be a decent wind blowing out and temperatures will not be too chilly at gametime for this one. I like the fact that Winn is not getting many strikeouts for the Giants. Yes he has respectable numbers so far but he has been far from dominant as indicated by the strikeout rate and his minor league ERA numbers were not overly impressive so this is not surprising. The Rockies will do some damage here. At the same time, Lambert is in line to get rocked for Colorado. He has been hit rather hard in 5 of last 7 starts and just allowed 4 earned runs in most recent outing. In night games this season, Lambert has gone 2-5 with a 5.82 ERA. The Rockies have seen 7 of last 9 games total at least 10 runs and their last 5 games have been on the current road trip so this is not just a Coors Field thing. Those games averaged 12.7 runs per game! We only need 9 to be a winner here. The Giants have scored an average of 6 runs per game in their last 6 home games and they are starting to hit better recently after a tough patch as SF has now scored 8 or more runs in 3 of last 4 games. 10* OVER the total in San Francisco |
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09-10-23 | Eagles -3.5 v. Patriots | Top | 25-20 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (-) @ New England Patriots @ 4:25 ET - The current line on this one as of game day morning is 3.5 and the Patriots saw 8 of their 9 losses (including all 4 at home) come by a margin of at least 4 points last season! Also, take a look at the Eagles final 9 games last season. Prior to a 3 point loss in the Super Bowl, Philadelphia had gone 9 straight games without a single game decided by less than 5 points. The point is that I am picking the winner in this game to be the Eagles and the above stats are also why I feel confident that laying the points is not an issue. Philadelphia is, of course, one of the best teams in the league right now. The Patriots, ironically Brady is being honored at today's game by the way, is nowhere near the level of team they use to be in the Tom Brady days. So the point is we are getting a lot of line value here considering the Eagles are not only expected to win their division this season, they are a Super Bowl contender again. Compare this to a Patriots team that many project will end up in last place in the AFC East this season. So, the point is that we have line value here on the surface and it looks even better as you dig deeper here. Jalen Hurts over Mac Jones at QB. A relentless Eagles defensive line attacking a key weakness in this Patriots team (offensive line shaky in preseason). Also, the Pats have some injury issues in the offensive line plus there were already concerns at the tackle positions. The Patriots will ride some emotions for awhile here (season opener at home and honoring Brady) but eventually the Eagles will pull away as the visitors in this match-up hold key edges all over the field. 10* PHILADELPHIA (-) |
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09-10-23 | Serbia v. Lithuania OVER 3 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
Rotation #225529: Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage: Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 3 in Lithuania vs Serbia @ 2:45 ET - Serbia has scored an average of 3 goals per match in the last 4 meetings with Lithuania. Serbia likes to play an attacking formation with an aggressive style and I expect that to be the case here as well as they look to dominate an opponent they know they are fully capable of dominating. However, with Lithuania at home, do not be surprised if they also find the back of the net at least once in this one! Lithuania lost the most recent meeting 2-0 in March but they had scored a goal in 3 straight meetings between these clubs prior to that. At home, they will get back on the board here but they will not be able to stop Serbia the way I see it. Note that Lithuania has allowed 2 goals in B2B matches but also did score 2 goals in most recent match - a 2-2 draw. Serbia has both scored and conceded in 3 straight matches and that trend continues here but they are 1.5 goal favorite on the goal line with good reason! Look for at least a 3-1 final here and that cashes this ticked. 10* OVER 3 in Lithuania |
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09-10-23 | 49ers -2 v. Steelers | Top | 30-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play San Francisco 49ers (-) @ Pittsburgh Steelers @ 1 ET - Look out! The Steelers are back! After all, they went 7-2 to close out last season to make sure Tomlin's long streak of having not had a losing season for the Steelers remained intact! Of course I am writing with sarcasm here because this Steelers team is not that strong ladies and gentlemen and this is a bargain line to have the much stronger team and essentially just ask them to win the game. The line is currently a -2 as of early gameday morning and the 49ers are coming off a fantastic season. They are the better team defensively, stronger at the all-important QB position, and are very well-coached. That is not to say Tomlin is not a good coach but the fact is San Francisco has the stronger roster and I really like what the Niners have been doing in recent seasons. As for Pittsburgh, now I come back to that 7-2 season-ending run. Two of the games were against the rival Ravens and they did manage a 1-1 split here. In the other 7 games however, the 6 wins the Steelers had came against teams that ALL had losing records when they faced them. Those 6 teams, at the time Pittsburgh met them, had a combined record of 30-44-1 and NONE of them had a winning record. All 6 of those teams ended up missing the playoffs and ALL 6 had DOUBLE DIGITS in losses at the end of the season. The point is that the Steelers season-ending run was not so impressive when you consider those factors and now they face a 49ers team that nearly went to the Super Bowl last season! Indeed, my money is on the Niners here at an absolute bargain price. This Steelers team is just nowhere near the team they use to be and last season was the 3rd time in 5 years that they have missed the post-season. 10* SAN FRANCISCO (-) |
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09-10-23 | Denmark v. Finland OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
Rotation #225509: Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage: Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 +120 in Finland vs Denmark @ Noon ET - Denmark beat Finland 3-1 in the reverse fixture. Denmark has scored 2.2 goals per match last 5 matches. However, of course Finland will be tough here at home and is out for revenge. Note that Finland has won 4 straight matches and scored an average of 2.5 goals per match since that loss. This should be a well-played match that ends with at least a 2-1 final. Both clubs have scored at least one goal in 5 straight matches and there has only been 1 draw in looking at all those matches. We'll see 2-1 here as Denmark is solid but Finland is a revenge-minded host and the attacking will be early and often in this one. 10* OVER 2.5 +120 in Finland |
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09-09-23 | Texas v. Alabama OVER 52.5 | Top | 34-24 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
CFB Saturday OVER the total in Alabama Crimson Tide vs Texas Longhorns @ 7 ET - Last year these teams met in Texas and the posted total on this game was 10 points more than the current total on this game which is in the 53.5 range as of early gameday morning. This total for this rematch Saturday is an absolute bargain for over players the way I see it. The defenses of each team were much stronger than this season's versions. Also, the offenses of each one of these teams look absolutely stacked this season. Alabama, as always, looks ultra lethal and has phenomenal skill. Texas brought back a ton of talent on the offensive side of the ball and they, too, have extremely strong personnel at the skill positions. The fact is both these teams should move the ball here very well. I like the quarterbacks in this one. Remember, the Horns QB got hurt last season. Also, the Longhorns and Crimson Tide EACH put up nearly 400 yards of offense last season so the 20-19 final was a bit deceiving. The way I see this one playing out is that we should see this one get into the 60s for total points. There are no weather concerns, the offenses are stacked, and this one should turn into a back and forth battle. Two well-coached teams loaded with talent on offense. Both teams lost quite a bit from their defenses from last season. Keep in mind, both teams were a bit complacent last week in wins over weaker competition but the offenses will be aggressive this week and focused. The defenses were not challenged last week as they faced weaker competition. That changes in a hurry this week and these defenses, in my strong opinion, are a step behind the offenses early this season and that will show here. The defenses each facing major challenges this week and, between the two teams they lost 11 of 22 defensive starters. The final key is the line value here. There is no justification for this total being 10 points total than last year's. Not when you consider all of the above. I know last season's match-up finished as a solid under but you can see, per the above, it was a bit of phony final and we now take advantage because these two offenses are both set up perfectly to light things up here! 10* OVER the total in Alabama |
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09-09-23 | Calgary +2.5 v. Edmonton Elks | Top | 23-25 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
CFL Saturday 10* Top Play Calgary Stampeders + points @ Edmonton Elks @ 7 ET - Yesterday I successfully went again Ottawa as they were winless in their divisional games this season but laying 4 points. Today I do the same with going against Edmonton as the Elks are winless in their divisional games but are laying 2.5 points here. Note that the Elks do have right back revenge in play here as they lost at Calgary in a high-scoring tight game last week but revenge tends to be an over-played angle. The fact is that the Stamps are the stronger overall team and, with another win, they can keep their playoff hopes still very much alive even after a sluggish period within this season. As mentioned yesterday "Note the Elks are the only West Division team without a SU divisional win. Similarly, the Redblacks are the only East Division team without a SU divisional win. Edmonton is 0-7 in divisional games and Ottawa is 0-5 in divisional games"... and now Redblacks are 0-6 SU this season. Similarly, yes this is a divisional game for Edmonton and we are fading this 0-7 spot for the Elks and we are even getting a few points to work with. I'll take it! Look for this play-against angle to improve to 8-0 but we'll also grab the points for added insurance. 10* CALGARY + |
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09-09-23 | Marlins v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 110 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
MLB Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 +110 vs Miami Marlins @ 6:05 ET - The Phillies let me down yesterday - the lone loss on the day - as they blew a 2-run lead and lost 3-2. No hesitation in coming right back with them here off a tight loss like that. This is particularly true when they have a huge pitching edge. Regardless of starters, I will go with Phillies here but definitely I like the projected starting pitching match-up here. The Phillies are going with Aaron Nola and he is off a rare bad start after he had been enjoying a dominating stretch. Nola is known for pitching great at home and 9 of his last 11 starts have been fantastic. In those 9 starts Nola has allowed a total of only 12 earned runs! Yes that is an average of a measly 1.3 runs per start and I expect him to dominate here. As for the Marlins, they are going with Johnny Cueto here and he has not been impressive at all. He is 1-3 with a 5.54 ERA and he has allowed 9 homers in his last 5 starts and those have spanned 27 innings. So count on him to give up a couple homers here against a power-hitting Phillies lineup in this one. Look for Phillies to win in a rout so we will grab the plus money on the run line in this one. Amazingly, 20 of the last 21 wins for Philly have been by 2+ runs. As for the Marlins, 22 of last 26 losses have been by a multi-run margin. Lay it! 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 +110 |
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09-09-23 | Ole Miss -7 v. Tulane | Top | 37-20 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
CFB Saturday Ole Miss Rebels - points @ Tulane Green Wave @ 3:30 ET - Both teams off huge wins last week but Tulane did face the much tougher test but still it was impressive that Ole Miss scored 73 points unanswered after allowing a 75-yard touchdown on the opening play of the game! That said, from a technical standpoint, the Green Wave have not performed well in situations like this. They have failed to cover 6 of the last 7 times when they are home off a double digit ATS cover and are hosting a team that is off a straight-up win. Conversely, this situation sets up well for Ole Miss from a technical standpoint. The Rebels actually have covered nine straight times when they are favored by five or more points and facing a team off a win both SU and ATS. Outside of technical data here, I like the fact that Ole Miss had a great start last season and then faded late in the season. The Rebels have a little extra hunger here and will again do great in non-conference action this season. Of course the SEC the much tougher conference in comparison with the American Athletic Conference. That being said, this AAC team is off a great season but they lost quite a bit from that team and the Green Wave had a 2-win season the year before! In other words, Tulane is still a solid team but of course this is a program that is nowhere near the level of Ole Miss. I also feel the Rebels defense is improved entering this season while the Green Wave defense has taken a step back. This one could be close for awhile but eventually the visitors pull away. They simply have too much offense and are so stacked offensively and are well-coached and Tulane will not be able to keep up for the full 60 here. Wish we could lay less than a TD but I do expect the Rebels to win this by a double digit margin as that ATS streak I mentioned above reaches 10 straight wins! 10* Ole Miss Rebels - points |
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09-09-23 | Italy v. North Macedonia OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -117 | 5 h 52 m | Show |
Rotation #225485: European Championship Qualifying, Group Stage Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 in North Macedonia vs Italy @ 2:45 ET - Italy is out revenge after a 1-0 loss to North Macedonia when these teams met in 2022 so I am sure the that the visitors are going to roll here and North Macedonia is hosting them at the wrong time. Italy will be relentless here and lets not forget that the hosts have allowed an average of 5 goals in their last two matches! I do like the fact that North Macedonia has a good run at home in terms of being able to find the back of the net at least once in their matches here. However, the visitors will get some revenge here and are a huge favorite for a reason but North Macedonia has scored a goal in 6 straight Euro Qualifiers when they are on their home pitch so, off an ugly 7-0 loss at England, they should bounce back here as well. When I say bounce back I just mean they should find the back of the net and get a goal but ultimately the visitors prevail with at least a pair of goals. Look for a 2-1 or 3-1 type match here. 10* OVER 2.5 in North Macedonia |
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09-09-23 | Nebraska +3 v. Colorado | Top | 14-36 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Nebraska Cornhuskers + points @ Colorado Buffaloes @ Noon ET - There is some +3 still out there at the time of this posting though it looks like 2.5 could end up being the dominant number on this one. Either way, I like Nebraska as I am actually expecting an outright upset here so really I do not expect the points to be a factor. The Buffaloes are being anointed as title contenders now after just one game. Give credit to coach Sanders for having his guys ready and pulling off the massive upset of the Horned Frogs at TCU last week. However, it is one game! Now there is film out on this team. And guess what...the defense does NOT look good! They allowed over 540 yards to the Frogs last week! Conversely, the Cornhuskers allowed about 250 yards (less than HALF of what TCU allowed) as they fell just short at Minnesota. The Huskers know they should have won that game outright (they did cover ATS) and will be extra hungry for the outright win this week. Keep in mind, most everyone is sick of hearing about Colorado and coach "Prime" and this Cornhuskers defense will come to play and now there is film out on what the Buffaloes offense is capable of. The Huskers allowed just 55 rushing yards to a fantastic rushing team in Minnesota last week. Nebraska now faces a Buffs team that ran for only 55 yards last week. The Cornhuskers were done in by turnovers last week and keep in mind Coach Rhule is a solid coach with NFL experience too and he gives them a coaching edge here. Also, they actually ran for nearly 200 yards. So now we have a defensive-minded underdog with the rushing edge as well. I love spots like this and am going to challenge this over-hyped Colorado team to beat us through the air. Give coach Sanders and his group credit for the upset last week but things can change in a hurry in the college football world and that is particularly true of a new roster of players with a new coach that now has been introduced to the college football world. As they (unlike TCU) now have an idea of what is coming for them this week, one word describes the Cornhuskers here: READY! 10* NEBRASKA + points |
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09-09-23 | Sweden v. Estonia OVER 2.5 | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 2 h 20 m | Show |
Rotation #225473: European Championship Qualifying, Group Stage Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 in Estonia vs Sweden @ Noon ET - Sweden is angry off a 2-0 loss so Estonia is hosting them at the wrong time. Sweden will be relentless here and lets not forget that shutout loss was preceded by Sweden scoring 9 goals over two matches. The visitors will bounce back here and are a huge favorite for a reason but Estonia had scored 13 goals in their 9 matches before a 3-0 shutout in their most recent match so they should bounce back here as well. When I say bounce back I just mean they should find the back of the net and get a goal but ultimately the visitors prevail with at least a pair of goals. Look for a 2-1 or 3-1 type match here. 10* OVER 2.5 in Estonia |
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09-08-23 | Illinois v. Kansas -3 | Top | 23-34 | Win | 100 | 39 h 28 m | Show |
Friday CFB 10* Top Play Kansas Jayhawks -3 vs Illinois Illini @ 7:30 ET - This is not the Kansas of old - not under head coach Leipold - no way! As for the Illini - coach Bielema has a poor history in road openers (or 1st neutral site game - anything away from home to start season) and he is 0-2 ATS here with Illinois already. Overall, Illinois is 0-4 ATS L4 years in road openers, the last two with Bielema at the helm. Last week the Illini were at home at home and were favored by nearly double digits against Toledo and yet were outgained and had to win the game on a field goal with just a few seconds left on the clock. I know the Jayhawks pulled away late in their win over FCS opponent Murray State but they also were without starting QB Jalon Daniels who I believe was held out of that game simply because coach Leipold felt they could easily beat the FCS Racers without him. They did end up ultimately winning 48-17 and Daniels is likely getting the start this week. Either way, I like the fact that the Jayhawks are returning one of the most experienced rosters in the country, Leipold is really starting to build something here, the Illini have Big Ten opener versus Penn State on deck, and Kansas has a situational edge factor since they have an extra day of rest (played Friday) plus are home again this week! The Illini are on a short week and have the Nittany Lions on deck plus they are traveling for this one! The Jayhawks have only a non-conference game at Nevada on deck so this is easily the most important early season game for them while the same can not be said for Illinois. This line was around a 4 and I know it may seem hard to trust the Jayhawks as a favorite but the fact the line has moved down to a 3 has me liking this one even more. This line is as of early Thursday morning for the Friday evening affair. Lets jump on it! 10* KANSAS -3 |
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09-08-23 | Hamilton +4 v. Ottawa | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
CFL Friday 10* Top Play Hamilton Tiger-Cats +4 @ Ottawa Redblacks @ 7:30 ET - Yes, the Ti-Cats failed to cover in their home loss to Toronto last week. However, the yardage in that loss by a double digit margin actually had Hamilton with a slight edge! The week before they had won big at BC over the Lions. This Ti-Cats team is stronger than their record. There is line value here because the Redblacks are coming off their bye week and they are at home and everyone sees the final score of the Argonauts win over this Hamilton team last week. That is causing an over-reaction toward the Ottawa side here. Lets not forget this Redblacks team lost to West Division cellar dweller Edmonton the prior week in a non-divisional battle. Note the Elks are the only West Division team without a SU divisional win. Similarly, the Redblacks are the only East Division team without a SU divisional win. Edmonton is 0-7 in divisional games and Ottawa is 0-5 in divisional games. Yes this is a divisional game and we are fading this 0-5 spot for the Redblacks and we are even getting a handful of points to work with. I'll take it! Look for this play-against angle to improve to 6-0 but we'll also grab the points for added insurance. 10* HAMILTON +4 |
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09-08-23 | Royals v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 4-5 | Push | 0 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Toronto Blue Jays vs Kansas City Royals @ 7:07 ET - The Royals have been scoring well for quite an extended stretch now but they still are one of the worst teams in the league because of their pitching. Their bullpen ERA ranks among the worst in the league and here they are essentially going with a bullpen game because Collin Snyder is projected to get the start and he has been a bullpen guy at the MLB level. The Royals just don't have many pitching options right now and even Zack Greinke struggled when used out of the bullpen. The good news for KC though is that projected Jays starter Yusei Kikuchi has been struggling. He has given up 13 runs (9 earned) on 19 hits in 15 and 1/3 innings over his last 3 starts. Kikuchi also walked 4 in less than 5 innings in his most recent start. The Royals have scored an average of 7.3 runs in last 6 games. The Blue Jays have a solid lineup and are 14 games over .500 on the season thanks in part to solid run-scoring capabilities. The Jays enter this one off a 5-2 loss at Oakland Wednesday but got some much needed rest yesterday after the long travel back from the west coast and that low-scoring loss was preceded by the Jays scoring 7.2 runs per game last 10 games. 10* OVER 9 in Toronto |
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09-08-23 | Marlins v. Phillies -140 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -140 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
MLB Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -140 vs Miami Marlins @ 7:05 ET - The Phillies are 41-26 at home this season and remember they finished up last season on a red hot run at home that carried all the way through the post-season as well. Philadelphia is a tough team to face here and Sanchez has been better than his record shows. Also, though he is off a bit of a shaky outing, Sanchez had previously been very strong in 9 of his last 10 starts. Other than the one outlier he had allowed a total of only 14 earned runs in the other 9 starts. As for the Marlins, they have been making a solid push here as the season has gone on but they are still 4 games below .500 in road games and 10 games below .500 against teams with a winning record on the season. Perez has struggled in 3 of his last 4 road starts and actually allowed multiple homers in all 3 of those rougher outings. Philly is a solid home favorite here with good reason! 10* PHILADELPHIA -140 |
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09-08-23 | Latvia v. Croatia OVER 3 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
Rotation #225445: European Championship Qualifying, Group Stage: Friday 10* Top Play OVER 3 in Croatia vs Latvia @ Noon ET - Of course you can tell by the goal line of 2.5 on this one and the massive money line on Croatia, Latvia is in big trouble here. However, I do like the fact that Latvia - despite all the recent losing - has been scoring some goals. They have scored at least once in 4 of last 5 matches and 3 of their last 4 matches have totaled at least 3 goals with 2 of the 3 reaching the 5 goal mark. I am looking for at least a 3-1 final here. Something along those lines as Latvia could surprise with a goal here but it will Croatia that should be relentless and scoring plenty as they put on a show for the home fans here. Croatia's last action was a scoreless match with Spain in Nations League so you know they want to bring a top effort here! Their 3 matches prior to that were wins by a combined score of 7 to 2 including a 4-2 in in most recent match. Yes they are capable of shutting down Latvia but, coming off a shutout, look for their bigger focus to be in the offensive end of the pitch and they have so many edges everywhere they could actually win this match by a 4-0 type of count. Either way, I am looking for this one to get over the total here as it is a nice set-up for anticipating goals. 10* OVER 3 in Croatia |
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09-08-23 | Spain v. Georgia OVER 2.5 | Top | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show |
Rotation #225437: European Championship Qualifying, Group Stage: Friday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 in Georgia vs Spain @ Noon ET - Georgia, of course, is in trouble here. But they are hosting and did score an average of 3 goals in 3 matches before the 2-0 defeat at the hands of Scotland. Of course one of those was a friendly against a heavily outclassed foe, Mongolia, but the point is that Georgia has the attacking confidence to get a goal here. That is particularly true since they are on their home pitch and that is why I am forecasting a 2-1 type final here. However, the reality is that Spain could score enough to get this one over the total all by themselves. The fact is that Spain does not have the power they once did but Georgia has allowed 8 goals in last 5 matches and I expect the visitors to be very aggressive on the attack here. Spain faced Georgia twice in 2021 and won those games by a combined score of 6 to 1. I look for Spain to explode offensively here as they are fired up after a scoreless match with Croatia in Nations League action over the summer and also their most recent match in these Euro Champ Qualifiers was, like Georgia, a 2-0 loss at the hands of Scotland. Their other two recent matches were wins by a combined score of 5 to 1 and each of those matches totaled 3 goals and this one will too as Spain is coming out hungry and relentless for this one but don't be surprised if the hosts score one on the counterattack as well. 10* OVER 2.5 in Georgia |
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09-07-23 | Lions v. Chiefs -4.5 | Top | 21-20 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 41 m | Show |
Thursday NFL 10* Top Play Kansas City Chiefs -4.5 vs Detroit Lions @ 8:20 ET - Everyone is excited about the Lions this season and I am not saying they will not be better but I do feel they still have a ways to go - at least on defense. That said, the Chiefs have long been known for being tougher on defense when they are at home. So now start to dig deeper in this match-up and you will really see some value in this one! The Chiefs were favored originally by a touchdown here and the line was holding near 7 until the Travis Kelce injury. That has resulted in this line dropping to the 4.5 range as of early gameday morning. Even if Kelce does not play here, I still look for the Chiefs to roll here but I actually feel he will play and he will be fine. Plus consider the normal 3 point assessment given to home teams in the NFL. That means this line of 4.5 is saying the Lions are very nearly as good as the Lions on a neutral field. Now ask yourself, if this was the Super Bowl and the Lions were meeting the Chiefs - this would be neutral field of course - would the line really be nearly a pick'em? Of course not! This line has been over-adjusted because of the early season hype on the Lions and the Kelce injury situation. Our job is to find value situations like this and take advantage and we'll do just that here! Yes the Lions finished last season hot with an 8-2 run but has anyone bothered to look at who they played? Remember teams play 17 games now and Detroit's 10-game run only featured two teams that ended up with more than 9 wins on the season. Against those two teams, the Lions beat the Vikings but lost to the Bills. Again, I will say Detroit is improved and they have a solid offense but I don't trust this defense and I don't think they march into Arrowhead on opening night and get a win. The Lions 4 road losses last season were by an average margin of defeat of 16 points! I love playing dogs and I love upsets but sometimes laying the points is absolutely the way to go and this is a fantastic value play here! 10* KANSAS CITY -4.5 |
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09-07-23 | Cardinals v. Braves OVER 10 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 10 in Atlanta Braves vs St Louis Cardinals @ 7:20 ET - The Cardinals won 11-6 yesterday and it was no fluke as they won the day before 10-6. These guys are scoring runs like crazy so far in this series but of course the Braves have been the best lineup in baseball this season and their high-scoring ways have continued. They will take things to a higher gear tonight considering that Wainwright is on the mound for the Cardinals. I know recently he has had a couple of better starts but even in both of those he had more walks than strikeouts. He won't be fooling these Braves hitters tonight and he has not fooled much of anyone for much of this season either. Wainwright has a 3-10 record and an 8.10 ERA on the season. I know Max Fried has good numbers for the Braves and he is a rock solid pitcher. However, before his strong start to begin September, Fried had given up 29 hits in less than 22 innings of work over his 4 prior starts. He has been very hittable and now faces a red hot St Louis lineup. That is why, even though Fried has great numbers this season, this total is set so high. Don't let the big number scare you away. This one likely will get into the same range the prior two games in this series did though this time I expect it will be the Braves doing plenty of damage as they salvage a game in this series. 10* OVER 10 in Atlanta |
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09-07-23 | Rep. of Ireland v. France OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
Rotation #225417: European Championship Qualifying, Group Stage: Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 -125 in France vs Ireland @ 2:45 ET - France is a huge favorite here and will be looking to lay down a beating after barely squeaking by in the first meeting in Ireland by a 1-0 count. Now at home, France will be even more aggressive on the attack but I like what Ireland did in the first meeting and that should lead to some chances again here. I am projecting a 3-1 final as the visitors should make the net ripple at least once here but will not have any hopes of slowing down a surging France team on their home soil. France has scored 2.4 goals per match last 5 across all competitions and they are a perfect 4-0 so far in this competition. Ireland has some added confidence courtesy of scoring an average of 1.7 goals per match in their last 4 matches across all competitions. However, Ireland just will not be able to stop the attack of one of the top clubs in the nation here in this one. 10* OVER 2.5 -125 in France |
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09-07-23 | Montenegro v. Lithuania OVER 2 | Top | 2-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
Rotation #225405: European Championship Qualifying, Group Stage: Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 2 -125 in Lithuania vs Montenegro @ Noon ET - Montenegro needs a victory here. That could get them back into contention in Group G. That said, I do not expect them to "sit back" here and look for a draw with a defensive gameplan. On the contrary, they will show some aggression and look to be on the attack early and often in this one. At the same time, the fact Lithuania is at home is a positive for seeing goals here. They are certainly not going to lay down at home here but when these teams met twice 5 years ago, Montenegro did score 6 goals against them with Lithuania managing just 1 goal in the match in which they were hosting. There is still separation between the level of these clubs and that is why Montenegro is a solid favorite on the road here. That is why I am expecting a 2-1 type match here. Lithuania has allowed 1.7 goals per match in their last 3 competition matches. Montenegro has allowed 2 goals per match in last 3 matches across all competitions. 10* OVER 2 -125 in Lithuania |
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09-06-23 | Orioles v. Angels OVER 8.5 | Top | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore Orioles @ 9:38 ET - The Orioles should pound Patrick Sandoval here. The Angels left-hander has struggled badly in 3 of his last 4 starts. Also, the over is a PERFECT 4-0 in Sandoval's last 4 starts against AL foes and all 4 of those games totaled at least 11 runs and actually averaged 15 runs! Kyle Gibson gets the start for the Orioles here and, like Sandoval, he has struggled in 3 of his last 4 starts! Also, 4 of his last 5 starts have resulted in overs and all 4 of them totaled double digits in runs. This one should too. I know the Angels lineup is not what it once was but they still have been scrappy recently and they showed that again yesterday. LA games have totaled at least 9 runs in 9 of last 11 and all we need here is 9 to be a winner with this total set at 8.5 runs. The Angels bullpen has been struggling and the Orioles have won 13 of 17 games thanks in large part to red hot production at the plate. Baltimore has scored an average of 6.3 runs per game during this stretch. Simply put, this total is too low. 10* OVER 8.5 in Los Angeles Angels |
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09-06-23 | White Sox v. Royals OVER 9.5 | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 4 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:40 ET - Another wild one yesterday between these clubs as the runs were piling up and I expect more of the same today on Wednesday. The White Sox have seen 7 of last 8 road games total at least a dozen runs and the only one that did not actually totaled 9 runs! We'll see big runs again here, especially when you consider that 14 of 20 Royals games have totaled double digits in runs including 5 in a row. KC has averaged scoring 6 runs in those games and they stay hot the plate here Wednesday! These are also two of the worst bullpens in the majors based on team ERA this season! In terms of the starting pitchers here - and I do like this over regardless of the starters based on all of the above - note that both are likely to get rocked here. Touki Toussaint walks about 1 batter per inning on the road and he is coming off an August in which he allowed 6 homers in 5 starts! Of course walks and homers are never a good combo for pitchers. The Chicago right-hander is 2-7 this season and his counterpart here, Jordan Lyles has an equally low winning percentage this season. Lyles is 4-15 this season but he is coming off a rare good start. That is actually good news for us because Lyles threw a season-high 114 pitches. Note that every time this season Lyles has thrown at least 100 pitches he has given up at least 4 runs in his next start and been pounded in most of them. In those 5 starts, that followed the heavy pitch counts, he has allowed 26 earned runs - an average of 5 per start and NEVER less than 4. All signs point to another high-scoring game here between these divisional foes. 10* OVER 9.5 in Kansas City |
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09-06-23 | Derry City v. UC Dublin OVER 3 | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
Rotation #205681: Irish Premier League: Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 3 in UC Dublin vs Derry City @ 2:45 ET - Derry City is a massive money line favorite here for a reason and favored by a 2-goal margin on the goal line. The set up here is ideal as they are off a 3-1 win and each of last two matches have totaled 4 goals. They also have scored 3.7 goals in winning each of last 3 matches with UC Dublin. Note that UC Dublin lost the most recent meeting by a 4-1 final. They again are in trouble here defensively and in goal but they also should again notch at least 1 goal as they are on their home pitch and Derry City has been conceding goals of late. UC Dublin is the worst club in the league by far and consistently allows big goal totals. They are allowing 2.5 goals per match and are outclassed here by this Derry City club. Look for a 3-1 or 4-0 or 4-1 type final here. 10* OVER 3 in UC Dublin |
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09-05-23 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -103 | 18 h 10 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 9:40 ET - The Rockies Kyle Freeland is 5-14 with a 5.18 ERA this season. The Diamondbacks Brandon Pfaadt is 1-7 with a 6.21 ERA this season. Pfaadt has particularly struggled at home where he has a 7.30 ERA and opponents are hitting .320 against him in this, his rookie, season! He just got roughed up at LA by the Dodgers and now he is back home where he has been hit hard in 6 of his 8 starts this season. Unlike most Rockies pitchers, Freeland has been a little worse on the road than at home in hitter-friendly Coors Field this season. He is 1-9 with a 5.32 ERA this season on the road and opponents are hitting .306 against him away from home. Freeland is 1-4 with a 6.45 ERA since the All-Star break and gave up 11 homers in 6 starts last month. No sign that things are getting any better for the southpaw and Arizona has average 5.4 runs per game last 7 home games. Prior to yesterday's 4-2 Dbacks win, 8 of the 10 meetings between these clubs had totaled at least 9 runs and 7 of the 8 that did actually reached double digits. All signs point to the fact this one will as well. Note that the Rockies are dead last in team bullpen ERA this season in the NL and that, among NL teams the Diamonbacks are only two spots above bottom-dwelling Colorado. We'll see runs here! 10* OVER 9 in Colorado |
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09-05-23 | White Sox v. Royals OVER 9.5 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 16 h 13 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:40 ET - Dylan Cease has a 5.37 ERA in road games this season a 5.42 ERA on the road. Cease is coming off an August in which he compiled an 8.07 ERA in his 6 starts. Brady Singer enters this one off B2B very rough start for the Royals. The Kansas City right-hander has allowed 8 earned runs on 18 hits in less than 8 innings of work over his past two starts. Singer has a 5.15 ERA on the season and the White Sox have seen 6 of last 7 road games total at least a dozen runs and the only one that did not actually totaled 9 runs! We'll see runs here, especially when you consider that 13 of 19 Royals games have totaled double digits in runs in including 4 in a row. KC has averaged scoring 6 runs in those games and they stay hot the plate here Tuesday! These are also two of the worst bullpens in the majors based on team ERA this season! 10* OVER 9.5 in Kansas City |
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09-04-23 | Orioles v. Angels OVER 9 | Top | 6-3 | Push | 0 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore Orioles @ 9:38 ET - The Angels Kenny Rosenberg has very little MLB activity in his career but has a 1.75 WHIP in his 5 appearances (1 career start). The Angels pitching is going nowhere fast and they recently did an unloading of veteran players. This team is wrapping up for this season but they can still score runs but also give them up in bunches too. The Angels should hit well tonight as the Orioles Grayson Rodriguez got destroyed by the Angels earlier this season. Also, he has been pitching better overall of late but still has a 5.03 ERA this season and the Angels could get to him again here. Of course the Orioles are a huge favorite here for a reason and they will pound Rosenberg and a bullpen that has a 4.76 ERA and ranks as one of the worst in the majors. 5 of last 6 Angels games have totaled double digits and those games averaged 15 runs per game! 7 of last 9 Baltimore games have totaled at least 9 runs and that is the total on this game. The Orioles have averaged 6.4 runs per game last 15 games - an 11-4 stretch for them and I am projecting a high-scoring battle here. 10* OVER 9 in Los Angeles Angels |
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09-04-23 | Edmonton Elks v. Calgary -4 | Top | 31-35 | Push | 0 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
CFL Monday 10* Top Play Calgary Stampeders - points vs Edmonton Elks @ 7 ET - This is a great set-up for a play on the home team. The line was up near a 6 and is now down to a 4 at the time of this posting. Also, the Stampeders are off 3 straight losses but this followed a win over the defending champ Argonauts that had Calgary sitting at a still ugly, yet more reasonable, 3-5 on the season. Now, after 3 straight losses, I feel certain the Stampeders are going to get going again here. They catch the Elks off B2B wins but Edmonton was 0-9 this season before that. Now they are just a 4 point dog here even though the Stamps are at home? This line is basically saying these teams are equal on a neutral field. I am not buying that as it was not that long ago the Stampeders were 3-5 and the Elks were 0-9! Another thing favoring the hosts here is they have a rest edge over the visitors in this one. So while I do respect Edmonton and I know they are improving, they are still 0-6 SU in divisional games this season and I look for the Stamps to come out with a chip on their shoulders in this one and roll to a huge win! 10* CALGARY - points |
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09-04-23 | Phillies +104 v. Padres | Top | 9-7 | Win | 104 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
MLB Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +105 @ San Diego Padres @ 6:40 ET - The Phillies are a small dog here because they are on the road and because the Padres are still fighting for a playoff spot. That makes this a great value spot on Philly because they are 8-4 last 12 games and 16-10 last 26 while Padres are 10-17 last 27 games. San Diego does enter this game having won 3 straight but are actually 0-7 this season when they enter a game on a 3-game winning streak! The Padres have Rich Hill going tonight and he is 7-13 with a 5.26 ERA this season while the Phillies are expected to go with Taijuan Walker and he is 14-5 with a 4.05 ERA this season! Also, Walker has a 3.13 ERA since June 1st while Hill came over to the Padres to start August. He made 5 August appearances (4 starts) and went 0-3 with an 8.50 ERA. I am taking the Phillies here for all the reasons noted above. Also, this tests that above trend that is in a go-against situation for the Padres for 7-0 / 100% this season! 10* PHILADELPHIA +105 |
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09-04-23 | Toronto v. Hamilton +7.5 | Top | 41-28 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
CFL Monday 10* Top Play Hamilton Tiger-Cats + points vs Toronto Argonauts @ 3:30 ET - This is a double revenge spot for Hamilton as they have lost both meetings with Toronto this season. I like the fact the Tiger-Cats are back on track after a win last week and are a big home dog here catching more than a TD as the current line is 7.5 points at the time of this posting. Hamilton will take advantage of an Argonauts secondary dealing with some injuries. As for the Toronto offense, I know they have been rolling overall but their most recent road game saw them score only 7 points. This is a tough match-up against a Ti-Cats team that is better than their record shows. Look for this one to go down to the wire which means getting more than a TD is a huge value here. 10* HAMILTON + points |
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09-04-23 | Reading v. Cambridge United OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
Rotation #200885: English League One: Monday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 +105 in Cambridge United vs Reading @ 3 ET - Reading is hungry to get right back up into the Championship League which is right below the Premier League. Of course to do that, even though it is early in the season, they know they need to better on their travels. They will be pushing hard to rectify that here. They are not going to be sitting back and hoping for a draw. Reading will be aggressive. They are also angry because they just got knocked out of the EFL Cup proceedings. So this match has extra importance for a Reading response but, at the same time, Cambridge United has scored 5 goals in its 3 home matches and they will have plenty of confidence on their home pitch here. Cambridge United and Reading each have played 5 matches in League One action and neither has had a draw. That trend holds here the way I see it and is why I am banking on at least a 2-1 final here. 10* OVER 2.5 +105 in Cambridge United |
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09-04-23 | UTA Arad v. Sepsi OVER 2.25 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
Rotation #206841: Romania Liga 1 Monday: 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 +120 in Sepsi vs UTA @ 2:30 ET - Great situation for goals here. UTA is off a huge upset win over FCSB as they won 2-1. They are traveling to Sepsi without their coach here because he is out after a heart procedure (stent). He is fine now and already met with the team prior to them leaving for this trip. The UTA players are surely going to go all out for him here. However, they are at risk of a bit of a letdown defensively after the big upset win over a strong FCSB club. That means it could be another big performance for Sepsi whom beat them 4 to 1 in the most recent meeting. Sepsi is fired up after getting knocked out of the Europa Conference League Qualifiers by a combined 5-4 score in the two matches. Overall, across all competitions, Sepsi has scored at least 1 goal in 9 straight matches and has averaged 2 goals per match during this stretch. Remember that 4-1 beating Sepsi laid on UTA was at Arad so they will be out for revenge and looking to return the favor here at Sfantu Gheorghe. 4 of last 5 UTA matches have totaled at least 3 goals and many signs point to the likelihood that this one will too. 10* OVER 2.5 in Sepsi |
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09-04-23 | Hermannstadt v. Botosani OVER 2 | Top | 2-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 10 m | Show |
Rotation #206837: Romania Liga 1 Monday: 10* Top Play OVER 2 in FC Botosani vs Hermannstadt @ 11:30 AM ET - The value of an over 2 in soccer can be huge. This is particularly true in Romania Liga 1 and the goals have been flying here. However, not all clubs are created equal of course and that is why we are getting the over at just 2 goals here. The fact is both clubs have trended toward lower-scoring matches. Why am I on the over then? Well, FC Botosani just made a coaching change to 43 year old Dan Alexa. Look for the former Romanian football star - who has been coaching in other leagues for years now - to immediately get this club playing hard for him. They are at home here for this one and will be ready to go from the opening minute! However, Hermanndstadt has a history of struggles in visits to Botosani but they have been the better club so far this season and you know they are amped up to put the past disappointments behind them here. So, situationally, this is a solid spot. From a more technical standpoint, note that Botosani has allowed about a goal and a half per match this season. Hermannstadt has seen 5 of last 7 matches total at least 2 goals and 4 of those 5 that did actually totaled 3 or more goals here. Strong odds on a winning over play here as both clubs so hungry for a win and I see each team scoring and then one of the clubs gets the deciding goal for a 2-1 win. 10* OVER 2 in FC Botosani |
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09-03-23 | Winnipeg v. Saskatchewan +7.5 | Top | 30-32 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
CFL Sunday 10* Top Play Saskatchewan Roughriders +7.5 vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 7 ET - Blue Bombers won big at Saskatchewan 45-27 early this season but the yardage was about equal in that one so the final score was deceiving. Now look at the Bombers road games since then. Winnipeg scored 17 points in next road win then lost roadie in OT then beat league-worst Elks at Edmonton, then won by 1 at Calgary. The point is that, with those types of road results, the Blue Bombers are truly over-priced here the way I see it. Note that Winnipeg is also entering this game off a huge win last week versus Montreal while the Riders got to enjoy a nice bye week last week. The Roughriders have won 3 of last 4 homes games since the home loss to Blue Bombers and the Riders only loss in that stretch was by 2 points. A lot of home dog value here! 10* SASKATCHEWAN +7.5 |
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09-03-23 | Oregon State v. San Jose State OVER 54 | Top | 42-17 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
CFB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Jose State Spartans vs Oregon State Beavers @ 3:30 ET - This Oregon State team is coming off a very strong season in which the defense really carried them especially late in the season. However, just like last season I expect the defense to struggle a little early on particularly on the road as that was the case last season and they were even stronger personnel-wise. The Beavers still have a solid defense but they lost many of their starters from last year's defense and there is going to be a breaking-in process. If the Spartans were at Corvallis for this one I might have concerns but not at home. This offense will play well again this week and they are in front of their home fans. Yes, the USC defense they faced last week has some question marks but do you realize that the Trojans had only ONE more first down than San Jose State did in that game? My concern with the Spartans, as has been the case in many recent seasons, is I don't trust the defense. Those concerns were proven justified last week as the Trojans rolled up 56 points in the win. However, this Spartans offense can play. They will still lose this game the way I see it but I am predicting the margin of defeat to be around 14 - very close to the number on this game. I am expecting the Spartans to be able to trade scores with the Beavers for much of this game and then eventually down 7 late they give up another TD to lose by 14 or they are down 10 and lose by 17. The point is offense will be the story here. The Beavers offense looks even stronger this season as they have QB DJ Uiagalelei to lead the way and he is coming into this season with a chip on his shoulder and will be out to prove some things. He has a great offensive line in front of him as well as the weapons around him to accomplish the task. He and the Beavers talented skill position players will carve up the Spartans defense. This total opened higher and has dropped to a 54 which means even more value here in a game I project to get into the 60s. 10* OVER the total in San Jose State |
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09-03-23 | Farul Constanta 1920 v. U Craiova 1948 OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
Rotation #206853: Romania Liga 1: Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 -115 in U Craiova 1948 vs Farul Constanta @ 2:30 ET - The last 3 meetings between these clubs all have totaled at least 3 goals and the average has been 4 goals. There also is a high-scoring trend taking place right now in Liga 1 and also with these clubs - U Craiova 1948 and Farul. Considering that plus the fact that Farul just got eliminated from Europa Conference League and the defending champs are now fully focused on this league, you have a great set-up here. Farul is off to a disappointing start to the season as the defending champs and they are hungry to get rolling again. Prior to a shutout loss to Helsinki that eliminated them as noted above, Farul had averaged scoring 2 goals per match last 4 matches. They have conceded 1.5 goals per match last 4 matches. U Craiova 1948 has played 7 matches in Liga 1 action so far and 5 of them have totaled at least 4 goals and those 5 matches have averaged 6 goals! These are unheard of numbers and we just need 3 goals to be a winner here and I am looking for each club to score and neither club to settle for a draw. That translates to at least a 2-1 final here. Note that NEITHER club has had a draw yet this season certainly the odds favor at least a 2-1 final in this one. 10* OVER 2.5 -115 in U Craiova 1948 |
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09-03-23 | Red Sox v. Royals OVER 9.5 | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show |
MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox @ 2:10 ET - I used the over successfully in this match-up Friday and should have come right back with it yesterday but made the mistake of leaving it off my ticket. I will not make the same mistake today! Some of the write-up below includes excerpts from Friday's analytics: The Royals Clarke is essentially an opener and I am not too concerned with who the starting pitchers are in this match-up. Boston's Chris Sale is having a rather rough season and things are not improving of late either as he has been hit rather hard in his last two starts even though he is notching some strikeouts. Also, as bad as the Royals are overall, they do tend to hit better at home and have some big games here. Given the way Sale is going I am suspecting this to be one of those games as well. As for the Red Sox, they should be able to pound a struggling (and one of the league-worst) Royals bullpen. The Boston bullpen, by the way, ranks only in the middle of the pack this season so they have been nothing special. The Royals entered this series off a rare low-scoring home series with the Pirates. Prior to this, 9 of last 12 home games for KC had totaled double digits and now this series has resumed that double digit trending. As for Boston, 14 of last 16 games have totaled double digits in runs and this one should too given the pitching match-up and weather conditions. Looks like a hot afternoon in KC with favorable winds - even if only moderate - for an over. 10* OVER 9.5 in Kansas City |
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09-03-23 | Phillies -106 v. Brewers | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 16 m | Show |
MLB Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -105 @ Milwaukee Brewers @ 1:05 ET - Why is this line a pick'em when the Phillies, who have lost 3 straight, are on the road and Suarez is 2-6 this season while Miley is 7-3 this season? Exactly! Do not let the line fool you. Suarez has been rounding back into form and this potent Phillies lineup is a perfect match for pounding the repertoire of pitches that Miley has in his toolbox. This one will be all Philly and they snap the skid here. 10* PHILADELPHIA -105 |
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09-03-23 | Manchester United v. Arsenal OVER 3 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
Rotation #200157: English Premier League: Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 3 in Arsenal vs Manchester United @ 11:30 AM ET - Both clubs are off to slower than expected starts this season and that means plenty of motivation here to remain aggressive in searching for the full 3 points in the table. Manchester United is off a 3-2 win but they had to battle back in that one and Arsenal is off a disappointing 2-2 draw. That means both clubs will look to get the upper hand early in this one but also not back down even with a lead. They have each seen, already this season, how important it is to build on a lead and not try to sit back on it. This is particularly true in a match-up in which both clubs are so dangerous on the attack. Arsenal has allowed at least 1 goal in 9 of last 10 home matches but also has scored multiple goals in 9 of last 10 matches as a host! The two matches between these clubs last season each totaled at least 4 goals and I am looking for that again here. Manchester United is dealing with injuries defensively and the hosts will be ready to attack that with the Red Devils knowing then too that their best chance is to win this one with some success on an aggressive counterattack. Looking for a wild one here as the high-scoring trend in Arsenal home matches continuing and a 2-2 draw would not surprise me in the least! Either way, expecting at least 3 but much more likely 4 or more in this one given the situation and recent history. 10* OVER 3 in Arsenal |
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09-03-23 | Aston Villa v. Liverpool OVER 3.5 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 11 m | Show |
Rotation #200149: English Premier League: Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 3.5 in Liverpool vs Aston Villa @ 9 AM ET - Big total but Liverpool is scoring an average of 2 goals per match this season and scored 3 goals in their only home match thus far. Aston Villa is also scoring well with an average of 2.7 goals scored per match this season. Aston Villa has allowed an average of 3 goals per match away from home this season and Liverpool is allowing an average of 1 goal per match on the young season. Liverpool can score so well at home plus they now benefit from Darwin Nunez flying high after coming off the bench to produce 2 goals in their dramatic come from behind win over Newcastle last week besides being down a man in that 10 on 11 finish. Liverpool will draw off that momentum here but Aston Villa has been red hot including the boosted confidence of an aggregate 8-0 win over Hibernian in continental matters as they dominated both legs of that tie! I don't trust the Liverpool backline but they are potent up front and have a long unbeaten run at Anfield for a reason! Don't be surprised if we see a wild high-scoring affair here that sees each club find the back of the net at least twice. So much potent attacking capability for both sides here plus the hosts continue to deal with goalkeeper injury concerns. 10* OVER 3.5 in Liverpool |
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09-02-23 | North Carolina v. South Carolina +2.5 | Top | 31-17 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play South Carolina Gamecocks (+) points vs North Carolina Tar Heels @ 7:30 ET in Charlotte, NC - This is a neutral site game and the current dominant line across all sports books as of gameday morning is 2.5 and I am grabbing the dog here. I like the fact the ranked team, North Carolina, is laying such a short number. I also like the way a few of the books I few as sharp are pricing this game. This has me lining up on what I feel is the sharp side which is also heavily based on what I like in terms of the match-up here too of course. The Gamecocks have really responded well under head coach Shane Beamer (yes he is the son of long-time former head coach Frank Beamer). South Carolina is building some continuity here in the program with Beamer and they finished last season very strong and I feel they will carry that momentum right into this season. Their passing attack is a strength now and QB Spencer Rattler is getting more and more comfortable here as he showed late last season. He will lead the way here against a Tar Heels defense that essentially lost their entire secondary from last season so you are talking about new starters here at key positions in the back of the defense. North Carolina had a lot of question marks in the off-season with a lot going on in the transfer portal including all the uncertainty involving the starting QB. Though he eventually decided to stay it says a lot about this program and that it is a bit shaky right now when I look at their coaching and personnel situations. I feel strongly that the Gamecocks are in better shape to hit the ground running early this season. North Carolina should improve as the season goes on but there is a reason this ranked team is hardly favored here in Week 1 and I love the points in this spot. 10* SOUTH CAROLINA |
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09-02-23 | West Virginia v. Penn State OVER 48.5 | Top | 15-38 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Penn State Nittany Lions vs West Virginia Mountaineers @ 7:30 ET - This total has been dropping and is now all the way down to a 48.5 as of early gameday morning. I love fading line moves like this and feel we have excellent line value here. The Nittany Lions do have a strong defense and I am well aware of this but the Mountaineers games averaged in about the mid-60s last season. West Virginia has a strong offensive line and a solid backfield and could surprise some on offense here. The issue for the Mountaineers is their defense is still a weakness and this is another Neal Brown team that will likely be mired in mediocrity as a result. They should score a few touchdowns here though, even if one is in garbage time but Penn State is a massive favorite for a reason. Yes, the Nittany Lions have a new quarterback but he is highly touted and some even projected he could even be a top choice in the NFL draft at QB in the future. Drew Allar has a lot of talent around him too at the skill positions on this Nittany Lions offense so don't be surprised if they pile it on here as this game goes on. The weather is going to be very pleasant in Happy Valley this evening and the State College crowd should have plenty to cheer about in this one. With only Delaware on deck for PSU, the Lions full focus has been on this game and they should pile up the points here. I am not fond of laying 3 TD lines very often and I am not in this case either but the over is a great way to play a game that could land around 41 to 20 the way I see it! 10* OVER the total in Penn State |
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09-02-23 | BC -3.5 v. Montreal | Top | 34-25 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
CFL Saturday BC Lions (-) points @ Montreal Alouettes @ 7 ET - Both teams off bad losses but if you look at the stats from those games, the Lions were about even statistically while the Als were outgained by a huge margin. Don't let this line, currently BC -3.5 at time of this write-up, fool you. Montreal is heading the wrong way right now and BC is the stronger team right now and more likely to respond big here with a huge win. The Lions are favored by more than a field goal here on the road but it is for a reason. This is the point. Two teams looking to bounce back off a loss but I trust this BC team much more than the Alouettes in this spot. 10* BC Lions |
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09-02-23 | Cubs v. Reds OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs @ 6:40 ET - I know Assad has been pitching well recently for the Cubs but the Reds are quite familiar with him having seen him a couple time last season and a couple times this season. They are at home where they tend to hit better and I like the situational factor here. Generally games in Cincinnati are high-scoring and yet both games yesterday totaled 8 or less runs. I like that factor plus the simple fact the teams are off a double-header yesterday. That means they used extra bullpen in that one. Also, Abbott gets the start for Cincinnati here and he has solid numbers on the season but has been struggling since late July. Dating back to his last start in July, Abbott has a WHIP of nearly 2.00 and, when you are allowing 2 baserunners per inning plus pitching in a ballpark like this one, you can quickly get into trouble. Great American Ballpark is known as a hitter-friendly park and it will be warm weather for this one too. Prior to Game 2 of yesterday's double header, the Cubs last 10 road games had seen them score an average of 6 runs per game and you know the Reds are primed to bounce back here at home at the plate as well. 10* OVER 9.5 in Cincinnati |
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09-02-23 | Newcastle United v. Brighton & Hove Albion OVER 3 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
Rotation #200145: English Premier League: Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Brighton & Hove vs Newcastle United @ 12:30 ET - Brighton is scoring an average of 3 goals per match in early season action but also has already allowed 2 goals per match in their home matches this season. Newcastle is scoring an average of 2 goals per match this season and I know they were shutout in their lone road match so far this season but that was against league-best Manchester City and it also played out in very surprising fashion. The scoreboard was not indicative of the play on the field and that happens sometimes but we will not let it fool us here. This Newcastle club has a plenty dangerous attack and Brighton does as well and we should see goals galore here as a result! I like the fact that Newcastle is off a 2-1 loss to Liverpool in which they had the Reds down to 10 men but blew the game. Lesson learned. The visitors will play more aggressively with the lead in the future and so, regardless of the scoreboard situation, Newcastle - whether even, trailing, or in the lead - is going to be relentlessly aggressive in this match the way I see it. Brighton is off a 3-1 loss to West Ham so you know they are going to also bring some extra attack in this match as well after that disappointing home loss! The last two meetings between these clubs averaged 4 goals apiece and 3 of the last 4 have totaled at least 3 goals. Given the situation here, we should see 3 goals and then some in this one! Brighton has both scored and conceded in 4 straight matches and those matches averaged 4 goals apiece. 10* OVER the total in Brighton |
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09-02-23 | CFR Cluj v. Voluntari OVER 2.5 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 111 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
Rotation #206845: Romania Liga 1: Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 +105 in FC Voluntari vs CFR Cluj @ Noon ET - 6 of last 7 CFR Cluj matches across all competitions have seen them both score and concede a goal. They enter this match off 3-1 and 4-3 wins. Ironically, in their last 4 meetings with FC Voluntari, CFR Cluj has scored wins twice in which they scored 3 and 4 goals respectively. You can see why I am anticipating plenty of scoring here and adding to the value is the fact that FC Voluntari has both scored and conceded in 8 of last 9 matches! Those 9 matches have averaged 4 goals apiece! We only need 3 here to be a winner and you can see why I am projecting at least a 2-1 type of match here in this one. 10* OVER 2.5 +105 in FC Voluntari |
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09-02-23 | Fulham v. Manchester City OVER 3.5 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 105 | 5 h 6 m | Show |
Rotation #200129: English Premier League: Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Manchester City vs Fulham @ 10 AM ET - Manchester City is at home and, though they have been winning, they have been playing with fire a bit of late and are in need of a dominating blowout win. I am looking for them to answer that call here at home and they might get this total all by themselves. I look for a very aggressive City club to score at least 3 times on their home pitch but Fulham has been competitive too and is fully capable of scoring at least 1 goal here. They have been successful at getting after aggressive approaches from the opposition by successfully executing on the counter attack. I am expecting that to be the case again here in a 3-1 type match. Fulham has scored at least 1 goal in 4 of last 5 matches. Manchester City has won 17 straight matches at home and has averaged scoring an incredible 3.2 goals per match during this streak! More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Manchester City |
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09-01-23 | Red Sox v. Royals OVER 9.5 | Top | 2-13 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox @ 8:10 ET - The Royals Lyles is having a very rough season and things are not improving of late either. Boston's Paxton has decent season numbers but he has struggled lately. Also, as bad as the Royals are, they do tend to hit better at home and have some big games here. Given the way Paxton is going I am suspecting this to be one of those games as well. As for the Red Sox, they should be able to pound a struggling Lyles and a league-worst Royals bullpen. The Boston bullpen, by the way, ranks only in the middle of the pack this season so they have been nothing special. The Royals are off a rare low-scoring home series with the Pirates. Prior to this, 9 of last 12 home games for KC had totaled double digits and this one should get there too. As for Boston, 12 of last 14 games have totaled double digits in runs and this one should too given the pitching match-up and weather conditions. Looks like a warm night in KC with favorable winds - even if only moderate - for an over. 10* OVER 9.5 in Kansas City |
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09-01-23 | Louisville -7.5 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 39-34 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
CFB Friday 10* Top Play Louisville Cardinals (-) vs Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ 7:30 ET in Atlanta, Georgia - Technically the Yellow Jackets have the home field edge here but it is a neutral site game at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. This line was originally around 10 and I was hoping we would see it tick down to an even 7 but it has been stuck at 7.5 across the board at the time of this write-up. I feel that is actually a positive sign for us if you will. The fact is the sharp action would come flying in too hard on a 7 and the books are not willing to go there, at least not yet. I say sharp money because the fact is this Louisville team is too strong for Georgia Tech. Look at statistics from last season and it already shows that overall, the Cardinals were already the stronger team. Then when you look at what has transpired with each team in the off-season and the Cards appear much more poised than the Jackets to hit the ground running with strong play this season. Plummer will be the QB and he is off a strong season at Cal and before that was at Purdue where Cardinals head coach Brohm was as well so there is already familiarity for him here working in this offense. This is a great match and their ground game, with Jordan leading the way, will run all over a GT defense that struggles to stop the run. I know Louisville lost quite a bit from the defensive side of the ball but Georgia Tech has a new offensive coordinator and a new QB to run it with King (previously unimpressive at A & M) under center. The Yellow Jackets will have more growing pains than the Cardinals early this season. 10* LOUISVILLE - points |