Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-10-18 | Jets v. Lions OVER 45 | Top | 48-17 | Win | 100 | 45 h 4 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #479 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Lions vs New York Jets @ 7:10 ET - The Lions averaged 25.6 points per game last season and will continue to be one of the better producing offenses in the league with Matt Stafford at the controls. Of course the big story in Detroit is new head coach Patricia. He was the defensive coordinator at New England of course but, as impressive as being with the Patriots sounds, the fact is the Pats defense ranked as one of the worst in the NFL last season in terms of yardage. They were a bit of a bend but don't break unit as they did better in terms of points allowed but, the point is, Patricia doesn't have the same group to work with in Detroit that he had in New England. The Lions were one of the worst units defensively in the league last year in terms of yardage allowed and weren't much better in terms of points per game. The point is I like the Lions offense to stay strong early this season but the defense will be going through a lot of adjusting early and the Jets, even with a rookie QB in Sam Darnold, have the firepower to take advantage. New York has a lot of talent at the skill positions and they will do some damage against a "questionable" Lions defense. However, it is the Jets defense that will also prove to be their downfall especially early this season. They struggled last season and this is one of the more inexperienced defenses in the league and a veteran QB like Stafford will take advantage. There is simply not a lot of veteran leadership on this Jets D. New York went over in 3 of 4 games against the NFC last season. The Lions are on a 7-2 run to the over in home games and I look for another one here. 10* OVER the total in Detroit |
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09-10-18 | Dodgers v. Reds OVER 9 | Top | 6-10 | Win | 100 | 8 h 60 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #901 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 6:40 ET - The Reds Cody Reed will be making his 15th career start for Cincinnati. The Reds are 0-14 so far in those starts! Of course that is why the Dodgers are a big favorite tonight and I do expect them to hit Reed well. However, don't be surprised if Cincinnati also hits well tonight. Yes, LA's Alex Wood has been pitching very well but the Reds (.270 batting average) are actually one of the top hitting teams in the majors this season against left-handed pitching. As for the Dodgers, their .440 slugging percentage in road games this season ranks them 2nd in the National League as they are certainly one of the top slugging teams in the majors when away from pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium. Reed gave up 6 earned runs in 5 innings at Pittsburgh last week and he is facing a Los Angeles team that has averaged scoring 6 runs per game in their last 5 games. The Reds lineup also comes into this game hot at the plate as they just finished up taking 2 of the final 3 games of a 4-game set with the Padres thanks to averaging 8 runs per game in those 3 games! The over is 11-6 in the Dodgers last 17 games against teams with a losing record while the over is 10-5 in Reds Monday games this season. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Cincinnati |
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09-09-18 | Astros v. Red Sox OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #977 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros @ 8:05 ET - Yesterday's game stayed just under the total. Even though it will be a cool, fall-like evening at Fenway Park tonight, I like the over in this series finale based on the pitching match-up. The Astros Dallas Keuchel got rocked for 8 earned runs in 6 innings the last time he pitched at Fenway Park. Overall, each of his last two starts versus Boston have resulted in an over. As for the Red Sox pitching, their bullpen has been struggling in recent weeks. That could be a factor here because I expect starting pitcher Rick Porcello to struggle some too. The right-hander has a 6.46 ERA in his last 3 starts versus the Astros. Not only does that hold significance here, note that Houston has won 7 straight games and is averaging 6 runs per game. In other words, this is a very confident Astros lineup that will be stepping into the batters box versus Porcello tonight. Though the Red Sox bats have been quieter than usual so far in this series, they still have averaged scoring 7 runs per game in their last 4 home games. Boston's issue will be the fact that Porcello has not pitched more than 5 innings in any of his last 3 starts and that means a struggling bullpen is likely to be called upon early tonight. Only 3 of Porcello's 12 home starts (25%) have resulted in an under this season! Though this total may drop to an 8.5 it will likely remain at a 9 in many spots and the over is a long-term 47-23 in Astros road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. Despite yesterday's result, the over is still a solid 7-2 this season in Red Sox home games where their money line ranges from a +125 to a -125. That over trend resumes tonight. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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09-09-18 | Seahawks +3 v. Broncos | Top | 24-27 | Push | 0 | 19 h 16 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #471 Sunday 10* Top Play Seattle Seahawks (+) @ Denver Broncos @ 4:25 ET - The Broncos, based on the markets, appear to be a popular choice this week. This is understandable from the anti-Seahawks sentiment as certainly Seattle has lost some key components from the team that took the field last season. However, I have to wonder if people heavily betting Denver stop and think about this interesting factoid: the Broncos win totals keep decreasing! They won 12 games 3 years ago, 9 games two years ago, and only were victories 5 times in 16 games last season! Is this a team you want to lay points with against a Seahawks team that still has plenty of professional pride and has been a top team for many years now. Also, do you want Case Keenum at QB or Russell Wilson? Of course most everyone would take the Hawks signal-caller give the choice! The point is just the simple fact that a little too much respect has gone the way of the Broncos in my strong opinion. We can now get a full field goal with the team, that in my opinion, is still the better team. Sure there is the important factor of home field but the Broncos have covered just once the last five times they've been a home favorite of 3 points or less. Overall, Denver's home field has been nothing special the last two seasons as they've barely played above .500 in the Mile High City. The Seahawks are 6-2 SU against AFC teams the past two seasons. The Broncos are on an overall 2-10 ATS run. You still have to score points to win games and so, while I respect the Denver defense, I think their offense is still going to have growing pains with Keenum at the helm. Seattle averaged scoring 5 points per game more than the Broncos last season plus the Seahawks D - even after personnel changes - is still a solid unit. The Hawks are also on a 4-0 ATS run when playing the first of back to back road games. Also, head coach Pete Carroll is in his 9th year with the Seahawks while Vance Joseph is in his just his 2nd with the Broncos. That difference in experience is worth something too. 10* SEATTLE |
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09-08-18 | Tulsa v. Texas OVER 61.5 | Top | 21-28 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 53 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Game #381 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Longhorns vs Tulsa Golden Hurricane @ 8 ET - Though there is a chance of storms in the Austin area Saturday this is normal at this time of year and they tend to be afternoon storms that fire up in daytime heating and then dissipate as the sun goes down. The point is that I don't expect rain to have an impact on this game and winds will be light and temperatures not as hot as they have been in Texas for many months now so the conditions are favorable for both offensive units to go "all out" here. The Longhorns are angry after their 34-29 loss at Maryland to open up the season with a loss to the Terrapins for the 2nd season in a row. Keep in mind, last year after this happened the Horns responded by scoring 56 points in their next game. Texas should have no trouble putting up big points on a Tulsa defense that is annually one of the worst in the nation. They've allowed an average of 37 points or more in 3 of the last 4 seasons! Last year was the 2nd time in 3 seasons under coach Phil Montgomery that the Golden Hurricane defense allowed an average of 529 yards or more per game. One thing Tulsa does have going for them however is they do score well. Keep in mind the Longhorns allowed over 400 yards to the Terrapins last week and this Golden Hurricane offense has averaged about 36 points per game in their 3 years under Montgomery. Tulsa was a little sloppy in their game against an easy opponent, Central Arkansas, as they were likely looking ahead already to this game, but they still put up nearly 500 yards of offense. Look for this one to turn into a shootout as the Horns need a huge effort at home but they will have trouble stopping this solid Tulsa offense. That turns this one into a back and forth "track meet" with both teams marching up and down the field. Look for the over to improve to 10-4 in Tulsa's last 14 games versus Big 12 opponents. 10* OVER the total in Texas |
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09-08-18 | Georgia -10 v. South Carolina | Top | 41-17 | Win | 100 | 24 h 24 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Game #347 Saturday 10* Top Play Georgia Bulldogs (-) @ South Carolina Gamecocks @ 3:30 ET - This is the year for the Gamecocks. That is what most everyone is saying at least. I know my choice here will be an unpopular one because just about everywhere you look in terms of thoughts on this match-up you're going to read about the value on South Carolina. Ladies and gentlemen, the odds makers don't make many mistakes. That is a fact. While most of the sports betting world scratches their heads and wonders how the Bulldogs can be a double digit favorite on the road in this match-up I am here to tell you that the likelihood is going to be domination in the trenches. I know the Gamecocks are improved and I know the Bulldogs lost some key players from last year's team. But Georgia simply "reloads" and they have a huge talent pool where their best players are coming from. The fact is that they've outgained South Carolina by a combined total of 578 to 73 in rushing yardage in the past two meetings between these teams. That is absolute domination in the trenches but we're getting line value here because they won each of those two games by only 14 points each despite dominating the ground game. I expect Saturday's win to again feature domination and this time it translates even better to the scoreboard with the win to come by 21 points. The Bulldogs have had this game circled because they know that this is one of their toughest games of the season up until they travel to LSU in mid-October. The point is that one of the top teams in the nation here, Georgia, is absolutely going to be ready and up to the South Carolina challenge. The Bulldogs are 6-1 SU (and 5-2 ATS) in their last 7 games as a road favorite. Also, in road games with a posted total between 49.5 and 56 points, the Bulldogs are an incredible long-term 21-6 SU and ATS! South Carolina, as a home dog of 7.5 to 10 points is 1-6-1 SU and 2-6 ATS! Bulldogs coach Kirby Smart and Gamecocks coach Will Muschamp are each in their third years with their respective teams. The vast improvement that Georgia showed from year one to year two tells me that, despite the experience returning on offense for the Gamecocks (both teams lost a lot on defense), the systems and the buy-ins from the players into those systems are having much more success for the Bulldogs than the Gamecocks and we'll see that again on Saturday in my opinion. Lay the big points on the road. 10* GEORGIA BULLDOGS |
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09-07-18 | Orioles v. Rays -1.5 | Top | 2-14 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #968 Friday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays Run Line -1.5 runs vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7:10 ET - The Rays are 41-24 at home this season. The Orioles are 17-55 on the road this year. Of course I am not going to lay the huge odds (over 2 to 1) with the Rays on the money line here. However, I do see fantastic line value in laying a very small price with Tampa Bay and expecting them to win this game by 2 or more runs. Hence the value here with the run line as Blake Snell gets the rematch against Dylan Bundy that he wanted. Keep in mind that Snell has pitched infinitely better than Bundy all season long but when they matched up in Baltimore back in May. In that start Bundy had a rare gem while Snell had a rare sub-par performance. Payback is on order today and Snell is 8-1 with a 1.06 ERA in his home starts this season. As for Bundy, the Orioles are 3-9 in his road starts and he enters this start with an 8.79 ERA in his last 3 starts. Laying the 1.5 runs here is certainly supportable by the fact that 15 of the Rays last 17 wins have come by 2 or more runs and 11 of Baltimore's last 13 losses have come by a margin of defeat of two or more runs. Expecting more of the same here on Friday. 10* TAMPA BAY Run Line -1.5 runs |
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09-06-18 | Indians v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
Total (of the Week) Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #907 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs Cleveland Indians @ 7:05 ET - The Indians only scored 3 runs yesterday but they did have 10 hits in the game but simply didn't hit well in clutch situations and they left 9 men on base in that one though had 10 opportunities at the plate with men in scoring position. I expect the Tribe will fare much better against the Blue Jays Sam Gaviglio Thursday. As for the Toronto lineup, they exploded for 10 runs in yesterday's series finale with the Rays and they now face an inconsistent Shane Bieber. The Cleveland right-hander has a 5.91 ERA in his last 4 starts and gave up 3 homers in his most recent road start. As for the Jays Gaviglio, he is 1-4 with a 5.61 ERA since the All Star break. In this stretch, opponents have hit .304 against him. Also, keep in mind, 5 of Gaviglio's 8 starts since the All Star break came against teams with a losing break and 4 of the 5 were against the last place Orioles and Royals. He is facing a much tougher lineup Thursday and I expect the Indians to get to him early and often. In Thursday games this season Toronto is 9-4 to the over and Cleveland is 8-4 to the over. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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09-05-18 | Reds v. Pirates OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #953 Wednesday MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds @ 7:05 ET - The Pirates Jameson Taillon has been pitching very well so, at first glance, one might be uncomfortable with predicting the Reds to do some damage here at the plate. However, a big key is that Cincinnati is facing him for a fourth time this season. Taillon shut down the Reds when they first saw him but that was back in early April. In the two times Cincinnati has faced him since, Taillon has given up 7 earned runs on 14 hits in 11 and 1/3 innings. Look for the Reds to get to the Pirates right-hander here. The big key to this play however is the fact that the Pittsburgh bats should absolutely crush the Reds Homer Bailey. The Cincinnati right-hander has miraculously allowed just 3 earned runs in each of his last 3 starts even though he continues to be hit hard. In fact, Bailey has now allowed 46 hits in the 24 and 2/3 innings spanning his last 5 starts. Yes, you read that right, the Reds right-hander is allowing an average of nearly 2 hits per inning! Bailey has a 6.93 ERA during this 5-start stretch and facing the Pirates is unlikely to help him. Bailey has given up 9 runs (8 earned) on 17 hits in 9 and 2/3 innings spanning his last two starts versus Pittsburgh. More of the same expected here and we'll take advantage of a low total posted on this one thanks to Taillon being on the mound for the Pirates. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh |
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09-04-18 | Royals v. Indians OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 10 h 60 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #917 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Indians vs Kansas City Royals @ 7:10 ET - The Indians Mike Clevinger has been throwing very well. However, he is facing a surprisingly red hot Royals team that has won 8 of its last 9 games and has scored at least 5 runs in all 9 of those games. That said, Kansas City is very likely to at least do some damage at the plate in this game. Couple that with the fact that the Indians should absolutely annihilate KC's Danny Duffy here and you have the right recipe for an easy over. The Royals left-hander is 0-3 with a 10.80 ERA versus the Indians this season. Each of his last two starts against the Indians have flown over the total. As for Clevinger, though he is pitching well of late (including his most recent start versus KC), the right-hander has allowed a total of 18 hits in the 15 innings spanning his two home starts versus the Royals this season. Though yesterday's game stayed under the total, Kansas City entered yesterday's action having had just two unders in their 10 prior games. The Indians have averaged 5.5 runs per game at home this season and they'll bounce back after yesterday's disappointing effort and that should send this game easily flying over the total as, keep in mind, these two teams also have two of the worst bullpens in baseball. 10* OVER the total in Cleveland |
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09-03-18 | Toronto +9 v. Hamilton | Top | 28-42 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Game #647 Monday 10* Top Play Toronto Argonauts (+) @ Hamilton Tiger-Cats @ 6:30 ET - Toronto lost at Montreal last week. As a result, they have no chance at Hamilton this week. Of course I jest but you get my point! We've seen a major market move toward the Tiger-Cats here and, simply put, there has been an over-reaction to last week's results. Keep in mind, the Alouettes team that beat the Argonauts last week certainly has been playing much better in recent weeks. Also, does Hamilton really merit being this large of a favorite in this divisional match-up? Keep in mind, the Ti-Cats not only are on a 1-4-1 ATS run, they're only 2-4 SU in their last 6 games. From my point of view, Hamilton will be doing good just to win this game let alone cover a spread that has now crept up to 9 as of game day morning. This is why I waited to release this pick until game day because I felt we'd get extra value based on market perception. Sure enough, ladies and gentlemen, here it is! Grab the big points with Toronto! The Argos have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these teams and the lone loss came by just two points. Hamilton is only 1-3 ATS in home games this season. Also, the Argonauts are on a 5-2 SU and ATS run when off of a loss to a division rival. Look for the Argos McLeod Bethel-Thompson to trade blows with Tiger-Cats QB Jeramiah Masoli throughout this game and I just don't see Hamilton as being able to pull away from a fired up Argonauts team ready to fight hard after last week's unexpected loss. This is the Argos chance to pull even with Hamilton in the standings! 10* TORONTO |
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09-03-18 | Royals v. Indians OVER 9 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #971 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Indians vs Kansas City Royals @ 4:10 ET - Both these teams were involved with games yesterday that went over the total and I look for another one today as now they are matched up on a very warm early September afternoon in Cleveland. The weather will certainly be favorable for the hitters and there is no denying that the Royals are red hot at the plate right now. With their 9-1 win yesterday, Kansas City has won 7 of their last 8 games and they've averaged scoring 7 runs per game during this hot stretch of play. As for the Indians, they've scored an average of 5.4 run per game in their last 7 games. Not great but also not bad and the fact is they should light up the Royals Jake Junis this afternoon. The Indians have had Junis' number as he has been rocked for 12 earned runs in 11 innings against the Tribe this season. Cleveland counters with Adam Plutko and he has given up 7 earned runs in 9 and 2/3 innings spanning his last two starts. Not only are those numbers unimpressive, he has walked 7 in those two short outings which is also a concern. The way the Royals are swinging the bats, Plutko is likely to get roughed up early and often. At the same time, the Indians bats continue their mastery of Junis' offerings and the result is a slugfest this afternoon at Progressive Field. Kansas City is 13-7 to the over in road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs this season. The Indians are 13-6 to the over this season in home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. 10* OVER the total in Cleveland |
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09-02-18 | Angels +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -119 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #927 Sunday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Angeles Run Line +1.5 runs @ Houston Astros @ 8:05 ET - Even though Shohei Ohtani will be on a limited pitch count here the Angels bullpen (yesterday's results notwithstanding) is quite solid. They also do have fresh arms in the pen as they only went 1 inning yesterday and, in the prior two games in this series, the starters went 6 innings in each game. So the Angels should be solid with Ohtani backed by a rather rested bullpen. The Angels are 7-2 in Ohtani's starts this season and while certainly the big dog comeback price is enticing here, I like the added "insurance" of having the +1.5 runs in this one. Prior to yesterday's ugly late-game loss the Angels, at +1.5 runs, were 15-8 their 23 previous games. As for the Astros, at -1.5 runs, they had gone 11-21 their 32 prior games. Gerrit Cole gets the start for Houston here and the Astros are only 5-6 in his last 11 starts but yet Houston is priced at nearly 2 to 1 on the money line in this game. I feel we're getting excellent line value here as Cole gave up 4 earned runs in his most recent start plus, prior to that, he had allowed 24 hits in 23 and 1/3 innings spanning his 4 prior starts. The Astros have been fantastic on the road this season but are barely above .500 at home on the year. Great line value here. 10* LOS ANGELES ANGELS Run Line +1.5 runs |
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09-02-18 | Winnipeg v. Saskatchewan OVER 54 | Top | 23-31 | Push | 0 | 25 h 19 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Game #643 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Saskatchewan Roughriders vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 3 ET - The Blue Bombers have a strong offense, averaging 31.5 points per game on the season. However, the Winnipeg defense has allowed 41.5 points per game in their last two. Also, this series has a history of being very high-scoring. In fact, each of the last five meetings between these teams in Saskatchewan have gone over the total. Also, the weather Sunday afternoon in Regina is forecast to be gorgeous with rather light winds and no precipitation. With that said, both offenses will be able to 'air it out" here and Roughriders QB Zach Collaros has been playing very well of late. Facing the struggling Winnipeg defense should help him to stay hot! Also note that Saskatchewan totaled over 360 passing yards in each of their 3 match-ups with the Blue Bombers last season. Winnipeg is 11-2 to the over the last 13 times in games where their line ranged from +3 to -3. When off of a loss against a divisional foe, the Blue Bombers are 8-3 to the over. The Bombers will be hungry to bounce back after losing at Calgary last week. As a home favorite of 3 points or less, the Roughriders are 20-11 to the over including a perfect 4-0 to the over in recent seasons. More of the same here! 10* OVER the total in Saskatchewan |
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09-01-18 | Bowling Green v. Oregon OVER 71.5 | Top | 24-58 | Win | 100 | 31 h 25 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Game #207 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oregon Ducks vs Bowling Green Falcons @ 8 ET - Big total when it opened up and it has also even moved a little higher since its opener. That should tell you something right there. The fact is that there is plenty of support to expect this game to be filled with plenty of points. For on thing the weather in Eugene, OR is going to be gorgeous for this one at Autzen Stadium. Keep in mind the Ducks led the nation in scoring when QB Justin Herbert was under center last season as they averaged 52 points per game when he was at the helm. The key to the value here is three-fold. One is that Oregon has an easy early season schedule the first 3 games so there certainly is no lookahead here. Secondly, and related to this first point, they'll not hesitate to keep their foot on the gas throughout this game as new head coach Mario Cristobal (only coached in bowl for Ducks last season) wants these guys to make a statement immediately in the new season. Thirdly in terms of the value here is that I believe Bowling Green's offense will surprise some people (including the Ducks defense). The Falcons have a very deep and experienced group of wide receivers, a respectable offensive line, and sophomore QB Jarret Doege put up some very impressive numbers in his 7 games as a freshman last year. Of course the Ducks defense is not without some holes and I expect Bowling Green to take advantage. The weakness for the Falcons is that they were on of the worst defenses in the nation last year and the Ducks should score at will in this game. That means this game should get into the 80s and might even approach the 100-point mark in my opinion. 10* OVER the total in Oregon |
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09-01-18 | Rays v. Indians OVER 8 | Top | 5-3 | Push | 0 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #971 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Indians vs Tampa Bay Rays @ 7:10 ET - When it comes to playing overs in MLB one of the "systems" I like to use is grabbing the value when a home team has a pitcher that is likely to struggle on the mound while a "top tier" pitcher is going for the away team. The reason for this is because teams do tend to hit better at home but we get a little extra value because the away team has an "ace" going. That is the case in this match-up Saturday because the Indians Shane Bieber has certainly been nothing special this season and is likely to get pounded here. As for the Rays Blake Snell, he is having a fantastic season but he is facing a very tough Indians lineup at Progressive Field in an evening game that will have summer-like weather by Cleveland standards. Temperatures today are expect to top out in the mid-80s with winds out of the south (which means blowing out at this ballpark). Combining these factors with the low total posted on this game and you have great line value here. The over is a perfect 7-0 this season in Indians home games where their money line is in a range from -125 to +125. The Rays, prior to yesterday's shutout loss here, had averaged scoring 6.4 runs per game in their 8 prior games. The Tribe have now won 4 of their last 5 and have averaged scoring 6.2 runs per game during this hot streak. The Indians Bieber has an 8-2 record this season but has truly been so fortunate. In July he compiled a 7.33 ERA. In his last 3 starts here in August he has a 5.63 ERA. Yesterday's under was just the 2nd for the Rays in their last 8 games and I look for trending toward the over to resume immediately today. 10* OVER the total in Cleveland |
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09-01-18 | Washington State v. Wyoming | Top | 41-19 | Win | 100 | 27 h 0 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Game #205 Saturday 10* Top Play Washington State Cougars (-) @ Wyoming Cowboys @ 3:30 ET - Everyone seems to love Wyoming here. They are the more experience team, they have a game under their belt, and they won big at New Mexico State last week. However, that same Aggies team then went to Minnesota last night and got absolutely blasted by a Golden Gophers team that normally doesn't score a lot of points. That blowout loss put bullet holes into a couple of those aforementioned theories. One is about having a game under your belt (NM St had that edge over Minny) and the other is that the Cowboys win over the Aggies even matters! Here are the facts that do matter. Experienced or not Wyoming is still a Mountain West team and think about it ladies and gentlemen, how many kids grow up thinking I want to play football at Wyoming? This is not some football powerhouse. Now they're hosting a Pac-12 team that early this summer was laying a TD against them. Now Washington State is down into the pick'em price range and is available at a pick'em price on the money line in a number of books as of mid-day Friday. I am happy to back the Cougars here at a fantastic discount as the markets have done what they usually do - they overreact to one game! Keep in mind Washington State has a couple of easier non-conference home games on deck. In other words, the Cougars have been fully focused on this road challenge all summer long as they know this will be their toughest game before Pac-12 action gets underway for them. They'll be ready...and so am I! 10* WASHINGTON STATE |
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08-31-18 | Orioles v. Royals OVER 9.5 | Top | 2-9 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #925 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles @ 8:15 ET - If you look at opponents batting average against, these two bullpens are ranked 29th and 30th out of all 30 MLB teams. That bullpen will be an issue today for both clubs because there is certainly reason to believe each of these starting pitchers will struggle in this one. The Orioles and the Royals lineups have both been red hot. Baltimore enters this game having averaging scoring 9.7 runs per game in their 3-game sweep of the Blue Jays! As for Kansas City, they have won 4 of their last 5 games and KC has averaged scoring 6.4 runs per game in the process. The wind will be blowing out at Kauffman Stadium on a warm evening in Kansas City tonight. It is the type of weather this evening that most certainly will favor the hitters. Brad Keller gets the start for the Royals and his ERA has been good in recent starts but he has allowed 13 hits in just 10 innings spanning his last two stats and the O's are swinging hot lumber right now. As for the Orioles Andrew Cashner, he is 0-2 in his last two starts and has been roughed up for 9 runs (8 earned) on 16 hits in just 13 innings of work. Only 9 of 27 (33%) Royals games this month have resulted in an under! Also, only 9 of KC's last 27 (33%) games against teams with a losing record have stayed under the total. 10* OVER the total in Kansas City |
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08-31-18 | Montreal v. Ottawa OVER 51 | Top | 21-11 | Loss | -108 | 71 h 32 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFL Game #641 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Ottawa Redblacks vs Montreal Alouettes @ 7:30 ET - This is contrarian in a number of ways. First off many will think it is contrarian to even play CFL now that CFB is underway and regular season NFL is soon to follow. The answer there is that value is value! Secondly, this is contrarian because the long-term trending relating to his match-up would point you to the under. Here are the key facts that matter: Montreal has been much better on offense the past two weeks as they have averaged 24.5 points per game and even rallied for a win last week versus Toronto. The Alouettes have been getting much better QB play. The problem for Montreal remains a defense that has allowed an average of 36 points per game their last 5 games. Keep in mind that Ottawa is favored by about 16 here so if Motnreal hits their recent average of 24 that should have them given up 40 and you've got a game total in the mid-60s which is way past the posted total on this game. The Redblacks are fresh off of a bye week and they averaged 36 points per game their last 3 games before their bye. Those big point total averages came against much better defenses than that of Montreal's. Also, the weather is going to be great in Ottawa on Friday evening for this one. All signs pointing to plenty of points for the Redblacks and the Als in this one. 10* OVER the total in Ottawa |
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08-31-18 | Syracuse v. Western Michigan +6 | Top | 55-42 | Loss | -115 | 71 h 39 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Game #144 Friday 10* Top Play Western Michigan Broncos (+) vs Syracuse Orange @ 6 ET - I know this is a MAC team that Syracuse is facing but the Orange sure are getting an awful lot of respect from the betting markets when you consider that they are 2-8 SU in road game the past two seasons. Simply put, Syracuse is not known for traveling well and they're taking on a Western Michigan team that is 10-2 SU in home games the past two seasons. I am well aware of the fact that the Broncos have a game at Michigan on deck next week but they are not looking ahead to that. This is their home opener and this is an important game to win and they know of course that a win next week against the Wolverines would be nothing short of a miracle. In other words the Broncos are most certainly focused on the task at hand here. I also like the fact that Western Michigan head coach Tim Lester was the offensive coordinator with Syracuse as recent as just a few years ago. He has some insight into the Orange (including their players) that others don't have. Also, Lester is going to be resuming play-calling duties again this season which I feel will bring out the best in this Western Michigan offense. The Broncos are anxious to get back on the field after an ugly season-ending loss at Toledo last year. Prior to that defeat Western Michigan had won 6 of their 9 prior games and none of the 3 losses came by more than 7 points. The average margin of defeat for the Broncos was just 4 points in those 3 losses. Syracuse lost a ton of talent from last season's wide receiver corps and in their linebacker unit. Keep in mind the Broncos, by the end of the year, had lost 21 players to season-ending injuries last year. That has created a roster this season that is much deeper and much more experienced (others forced into action last year) than first meets the eye and, of course they are healthier right now too. Add it all up and you have great "hidden value" with the home dog here! 10* WESTERN MICHIGAN |
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08-30-18 | Redskins +7 v. Ravens | Top | 20-30 | Loss | -115 | 49 h 26 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFLX Game #111 Thursday 10* Top Play Washington Redskins (+) @ Baltimore Ravens @ 7:30 ET - With the Ravens RG III having a shot to go against his former Redskins teammates and with Baltimore having a chance at an undefeated preseason of course they are going to go all out here and play most all of the starters for most all of the game in an attempt to blow away Washington. Of course I am being facetious here but this is truly an absolutely insane line move that has taken place here. This is week 4 of the preseason. No one cares about this week. Yes there are a few final roster battles going on but, at the end of the day, this is a very unimportant game. That said, where is the drive and the motivation for the Ravens to win this game by a full TD or more? It truly is not there. Of course RG III will want to play well here but what about the supporting cast. Also, how much motivation is it really when it is still preseason? Also, you don't think the Redskins want to contain Griffin too no matter whom is on the field? This line, going from -1.5 all the way up to as high as a -7 as of Tuesday, is simply out of whack. In fact, there is another key element here that also is to the advantage of the undervalued underdog. That factor is that the Ravens, by virtue of having played in the NFL Hall of Fame Game, will be playing their 5th game of the preseason. The last 8 teams in that situation have 0 ATS wins to show for it. One was a push (line was 3), one had their final game cancelled (Dallas/Houston last year) and the other 6 all failed to cover! You can see why I feel there is great value in the big points (biggest offering on the board) being offered in an otherwise meaningless Thursday preseason finale. Yes I understand about preseason QB rotations too and how these guys have played thusfar in the preseason but also keep in mind the Redskins did outscore the Broncos in the 2nd half last week. That said it is those same reserves that will play a critical role this week as well. 10* WASHINGTON |
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08-30-18 | Tigers v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #963 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers @ 7:05 ET - I am a well aware of the fact that the Yankees bats have suddenly gone quiet in recent games. However, that is a big part of the reason this is a contrarian play as the total opened up at a 9.5 and then dropped to an 8.5 as of game day morning. We're getting great line value here because I expect the Bronx Bombers to pound the Tigers Francisco Liriano. Also, don't forget that behind Liriano is one of the worst bullpens in baseball. As for the Detroit lefty, he is 0-3 with an 8.25 ERA and a 2.25 WHIP in his last 3 starts. The Yankees counter with JA Happ and I know the lefty has had good numbers recently. However, Happ has faced the Tigers twice already this season (once each in June and July) and he has been rocked. The Yanks southpaw has given up 11 earned runs in 10 and 2/3 innings spanning those two starts. The over is 3-0 in his last 3 starts versus Detroit. Also, the over is 2-0 in his last two starts overall. The over is also 2-0 in Liriano's last two starts overall. Only 1 of the Tigers last 7 games has resulted in an under. As a big home favorite in a price of -250 to -330, the Yankees are on a long-term 11-5 run to the over. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in the New York Yankees |
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08-29-18 | Marlins v. Red Sox OVER 10 | Top | 6-14 | Win | 101 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #923 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Miami Marlins @ 6:35 ET - Unseasonably warm weather in the northeast right now and so it is very hitter-friendly conditions that greet the hitters again tonight at Fenway Park. Last night's game totaled 15 runs and I would not be surprised to see a similar total result tonight. The over is 4-0 in the Marlins last 4 road games. The over is a perfect 5-0 this season in Marlins road games when Miami is an underdog price at +250 or more. As a home favorite in a price of -250 to -330, Boston is 3-1 to the over this season. Miami is 2-0 to the over in Trevor Richards last 3 starts as he has been roughed up to the tune of a 5.87 ERA in those outings. David Price has been pitching well for Boston but the Marlins have erupted for at least a dozen hits in 5 of their last 8 games and they stay hot at the plate tonight. This is a contrarian play because Price has been in great current form and most will be scared off of playing over the big total posted on this game but this absolutely should be another slugfest as the Marlins also take advantage of facing southpaw starters on back to back nights. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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08-28-18 | White Sox v. Yankees OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #961 Tuesday MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:05 ET - Watching Lance Lynn closely, it was evident that the Yankees right-hander was getting better results than he deserved early on. As expected, his "luck" has run out and he has given up 5 earned runs in each of his last two outings. Now he faces a White Sox lineup that is on fire. With their 6-2 win last night Chicago has now scored 5 or more runs in 12 of their last 15 games! As for the Yankees lineup, they had scored 5 or more runs in 7 of their last 9 games before a dismal showing at the plate last night. Of course each team getting to 5 runs here guarantees us of no less than a 6-5 final and 11 runs scored. I expect to see at least a dozen runs in this one as the Yankees feast on James Shields' offerings. The veteran right-hander is 1-7 with a 6.04 ERA on the road this season and got crushed for 7 earned runs in his most recent start. He allowed 3 homers in that outing and now faces the Bronx Bombers. Yes the Yanks are still missing a few guys (on the DL) but as you can see they had still been scoring plenty of runs prior to last night's defeat. Look for New York to bounce back tonight as this one turns into a slugfest. Prior to last night's games staying just under the total, the White Sox were on a 10-3-1 to the over and the Yankees were on a 6-3 run to the over. That type of trending resumes in a big way tonight. 10* OVER the total in the New York Yankees game |
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08-27-18 | Nationals v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -114 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #901 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals @ 7:05 ET - With yesterday's high-scoring win at Toronto, the over is 8-4 in the Phillies last 12 games. The Nationals are off of a blowout road win over the Mets yesterday and the over is now 9-4 in Washington's last 13 games. Not only are both teams trending over of late, it is also likely that Stephen Strasburg and Zach Eflin are going to each struggle in this one. The over is 3-0 in Strasburg's last 3 starts as he has compiled an 11.81 ERA during this rough stretch. Now he faces the same team that just hammered him last week so this is not a good situation for him. The same holds true for Eflin as he just faced the Nats last week and he was hit very hard and lasted just 3 and 1/3 innings in that start. The over is 3-0 in Eflin's last 3 home starts. Also, the Phils right-hander has faced the Nationals twice this season and has allowed 16 hits in 8 and 1/3 innings spanning those two starts. Suffice to say, they see his offerings quite well! Strasburg does have good long-term success against the Phillies but he is not in good current form right now as he also allowed 4 earned runs to the Mets in the start before he was roughed up by Philadelphia. Additional value here is based on the Phillies recent bullpen struggles and the Nationals bullpen having been thinned out by trades and injuries since mid-season. 10* OVER the total in Philadelphia |
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08-26-18 | Cardinals -2.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 27-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFLX Game #281 Sunday 10* Top Play Arizona Cardinals @ Dallas Cowboys @ 8 ET - There is a common practice in preseason wagering of backing winless teams and fading undefeated teams. However, most of this week's action is already in the books and note that Baltimore (4-0) won again this week, Miami (0-3) lost again this week, Tennessee (0-3) lost again this week, Philadelphia (0-3) lost again this week, Carolina (3-0) won again this week, Atlanta (0-3) lost again this week, Seattle (0-3) lost again this week. As you can see, not only is the undefeated/winless system worthy of being questioned, there is also merit to the fact that playing on the streaks is the better way to go. Of course the reality is that what matters the most in preseason is the coaches approach to the game and how much they care about winning. That is what ends up being a factor at the betting window too. While the Cardinals Steve Wilks is already 2-0 SU and ATS in his preseason debut, the Cowboys Jason Garrett (even with a rare cover in this preseason) is still an ugly long-term 11-20 ATS in preseason games. Based on the coaching factor as well as what I am hearing/seeing in reports from EACH of these camps on how they're going to play this one, I am backing the small road favorite here. Look for the goose egg to stay on the board in the loss column for Arizona and the win column for Dallas. Remember guys, preseason is a different animal compared to betting the NFL regular season. It is with very good reason that there has been a big move toward the Cardinals here with this line! 10* ARIZONA |
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08-26-18 | Mariners v. Diamondbacks OVER 7.5 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -117 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #979 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Seattle Mariners @ 4:10 ET - Of course Zack Greinke is a fantastic pitcher. However, that is also why we're seeing such a low total posted on this game. There is great value here because Greinke will be facing a solid American League lineup. The Mariners are hitting .264 on the road this season and that ranks them #3 out of all 30 MLB teams. Also, Seattle starter Mike Leake, prior to this season, spent his entire career in the National League. That does two things for us here. First off, the Diamondbacks lineup has a lot of familiarity with him as a result. Secondly, Leake is actually use to handling the bat and he actually is hitting about .200 in his career which is not bad at all for a pitcher. The issue for Leake today won't be at the plate however, it will be on the mound. The Mariners right-hander has a 4.96 ERA in his starts against the Diamondbacks in his career and he has been hit hard in 2 of his last 3 starts against Arizona. The Dbacks are certainly not an overly imposing lineup but they have a number of hitters whom have enjoyed success against Leake. Also, the Diamondbacks .326 on base percentage in home games this season ranks them in the top 5 in the NL. These teams combined for 22 hits in yesterday's 10-inning affair so it was a bit of a "fluke" that it stayed under the total. The over is still 6-2 in Seattle's last 8 games. The Mariners are a long-term 34-18 to the over in interleague games. Also, the Dbacks 10 hits yesterday means they have reached double digits in hits in 5 of their last 7 games. They are also averaging 10 hits per game during this 7-game stretch. More of the same on Sunday but, this time, more runs too! 10* OVER the total in Arizona |
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08-25-18 | Hawaii v. Colorado State OVER 56 | Top | 43-34 | Win | 100 | 32 h 54 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NCAAF Game #293 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado State Rams vs Hawaii Rainbow Warriors @ 7:30 ET - Things can change in a hurry year to year in College Football so one has to be careful relying on just the past seasons data in analyzing wagering opportunities. In this case, we have excellent line value on this total because Hawaii is going to a "run-and-shoot" offense per se. This will be the first time since 2011 that the Rainbow Warriors are going to back to the roots of a fast-paced offense similar to the June Jone years from '99 to '07. Now, of course, this does not mean immediate success for the Warriors on the offensive side of the ball. However, it does mean an excellent opportunity for success when facing the likes of a Rams defense that lost a lot of key personnel from last season. That is bad news for Colorado State in this match-up because they were already one of the worst teams in the Mountain West Conference against the pass. Look for Hawaii to play at a fast pace and put of plenty of points here on a night with perfect weather conditions at Fort Collins. The problem for the Warriors will be on the other side of the ball. Hawaii was one of the worst teams defensively in the entire nation last year and, like the Rams, they lost some key personnel too. That said, Colorado State was the #1 team in the MWC last season in scoring, passing, and total yards. They put up 51 points on the Warriors at Hawaii last season and I look for another big scoreboard night in this one too. The over is 11-6 the last 17 times the Warriors were an underdog and the over is 18-8 the last 26 times the Rams were favored in a range of 10.5 to 21 points. Look for another shootout Saturday night! 10* OVER the total in Colorado State |
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08-25-18 | Rangers v. Giants OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
Afternoon Annhilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #927 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Francisco Giants vs Texas Rangers @ 4:05 ET - The ball carries better in day games at AT & T Park and the wind will be blowing out at a good clip this afternoon in San Francisco. Both lineups got back on track in yesterday's high-scoring game which flew over the total. Based on these factors as well as the fact that each of today's starting pitchers are likely to struggle, you have an ideal set up for another one flying over the total this afternoon. The Rangers Martin Perez has given up 53 hits in 34 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 6 starts. In his last 3 starts the Texas southpaw has allowed 16 earned runs in 18 innings of work. The Giants Andrew Suarez has only one good start in his last 7 outings! The San Francisco left-hander, in the other 6 starts, has been rocked for 27 earned runs on 44 hits in 29 and 1/3 innings. You can see why, even though this inter-league match-up is in a National League park, this total is still set far too low. Time to take advantage! 10* OVER the total in San Francisco |
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08-25-18 | Winnipeg v. Calgary -8.5 | Top | 26-39 | Win | 100 | 73 h 36 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFL Game #366 Saturday 10* Top Play Calgary Stampeders (-) vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 3:30 ET - The Stampeders entered last week's action 7-0 on the season and then ran into a buzzsaw at Saskatchewan and got drilled by the Roughriders. Of course Calgary is seeking payback against anyone in their path this week and that means the Blue Bombers are absolutely in trouble here. Simply put, Winnipeg is in the wrong place at the wrong time. If the Stampeders were on the road again this week a bounce back would be tougher but, at home, I just don't see them being denied. Couple that with the fact that there is major difference in terms of these defenses and you have a blowout game likely here. While the Blue Bombers are allowing 24 points per game this season, the Stampeders were allowing just 12 points per game in their 7 game winning streak. One game doesn't change everything for Calgary. This is still the best team in the CFL and another key I like about their "edge" here is that the Stamps are 9-4 in divisional games since the start of last season while Winnipeg is just 1-2 in divisional games this season plus got knocked out of the post-season last year by another divisional foe, Edmonton. In other words the Blue Bombers are just 1-3 their last 4 divisional games while Calgary (including last year's post-season win over Edmonton) is 10-4 their last 14 divisional games. Big difference as the West is the tough division and the Stampeders continue to prove they are the best in the west! Situational edge, home field edge, and edge on defense all add up to a home rout here. 10* CALGARY |
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08-24-18 | Cardinals v. Rockies OVER 10.5 | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #959 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs St Louis Cardinals @ 8:40 ET - A number of key factors here have led to exceptional line value with the over in this one. High temperatures today will up near 90 degrees in the Denver area. The wind will be switching around from the east to the south right around the time this one gets underway and, though not a significant factor, the wind will be a help rather than a hindrance on a hitter-friendly night at Coors Field. Another key factor is the Cardinals just faced Antonio Senzatela earlier this month and the Rockies just faced Miles Mikolas earlier this month. Getting a quick "second look" and also this time at hitter-friendly Coors Field is most certainly an edge for these lineups. The third key factor is that Senzatela just recently returned from a trip on the disabled list with right shoulder inflammation. The right-hander only struck out 1 batter in his first start back which was versus Atlanta Saturday. Senzatela was not nearly as dominant in that start as he had been prior to the trip on the DL but the markets haven't picked up on this yet. Also, Mikolas did have a good strikeout game in his most recent start but that has been the exception rather than the norm of late. Mikolas had struck out just 13 batters in 27 innings spanning his 4 prior starts. With the Rockies lineup seeing him for the 2nd time in a span of just 3 weeks, I expect plenty of contact from the hitters in this one and that leads to trouble for Mikolas in this hitters park! Look for the over to improve to 9-4 in Mikolas' road starts this season. 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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08-24-18 | Broncos v. Redskins OVER 43.5 | Top | 29-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFLX Game #255 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Redskins vs Denver Broncos @ 7:30 ET - Oftentimes it is hot and humid in DC at this time of year but a cool front just moved through and it is going to be very pleasant weather this evening in DC. That certainly won't hurt our chances of a high-scoring match-up here as energy levels should remain high throughout. Broncos games are 2-0 to the over this preseason and both of those games were at home. Now Denver is on the road where the over is a perfect 3-0 in their last 3 preseason games. The Broncos have scored an average of 24 points per game in their last 4 preseason games on the road. However, Denver has also allowed an average of 23 points per game in their last 3 preseason games away from home. The Redskins, after seeing their first game go over the total, did stay under the total in Week 2 of the preseason. However, Washington moved the ball well but scored only 15 points because they settled for 5 field goals. Flip that to a more "normal" 3 TDs and 2 FGs for their five scores and you've got 27 points on the board instead of 15. The Redskins already lost RB Derrius Guice to injury so don't be surprised if they stay away from a lot of "pounding the ground" against Denver's defense. Last week only 4 of the Skins 20 first downs came on the ground. They'll continue to emphasize the passing attack here which is always good when you're on an over. As for the Broncos, their first two games have seen the totals average 58.5 points. I am very comfortable that we get this one to at least the upper 40s in points! 10* OVER the total in Washington |
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08-23-18 | A's v. Twins OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 103 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Game #917 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Oakland A's @ 8:10 ET - As yesterday's results came in, and knowing this match-up was coming up today, I knew I was going to be releasing a very strong play on this one. Having been burned by the A's game yesterday (my first premium pick loss this week) I am ready for redemption today thanks to the absolutely perfect situation here. The Twins game did go over the total yesterday but, surprisingly, Minnesota scored only 3 runs. Why is that a surprise? The red hot Minnesota offense had scored 5 runs or more in 8 straight game! The over is now 6-2 in the Twins last 8 games and they've averaged scoring 6 runs per game during this stretch. As for the A's, they just couldn't get the clutch hits they needed yesterday and had a rare poor game at the plate. However, prior to the 4-2 loss yesterday, Oakland had gone 8-2 in their last 10 games and averaged scoring 6.3 runs per game in those road games. The key to the value in today's match-up is that Trevor Cahill is fantastic when at home but atrocious on the road. The Athletics right-hander has just 1 win in his 7 road starts this season while compiling a 6.62 ERA. Last year he went winless on the road in 14 games (9 starts) and compiled a 7.07 ERA! As for the Twins Kohl Stewart, he is a 23-year old rookie that has struggled in each of his first two starts. Worse yet for him is that those two starts were both against a bad Tigers team. He'll face a much more imposing lineup in this match-up. In the minors this season Stewart was hit at a .301 clip! The point is that this young righty is just not ready yet and with the A's angry after yesterday's loss and very focused as a result, they will pound him early and often in this one. This total opened up at a 10 with good reason but now has dropped to a 9.5 and this is offering even more value to the over in what should be a slugfest. As a road favorite in a range of -125 to -175, Oakland is 8-2-1 to the over this season and I look for another one here in this ideal situation with good weather in the Twin Cities tonight too. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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08-22-18 | Rangers v. A's OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #967 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oakland A's vs Texas Rangers @ 3:35 ET - The Rangers have yet to score a run in the first two games of this series. That said, it may seem a bit brazen to be going with the over in this match-up but my contrarian theories have been among the most successful in my handicapping arsenal. The key here is really all about the match-ups. In this case you have two starting pitchers, Mike Minor and Edwin Jackson, whom truly have pitched a little "over their heads" this season. Couple that with the Rangers struggles at the plate in this series and, sure enough, an opener of 9 on this total has moved down to an 8.5 as of early game day morning. Of course this is leading to extra value on the over here because both of these starters are likely to get rocked. The A's Jackson gave up 5 earned runs in less than 5 innings in his start at Texas last month. Jackson gave up a pair of homers in his most recent start (versus Houston Friday) and he's opposed by a hurler, Minor, whom gave up a pair of homers in just 5 innings when he faced Oakland last month. Also, the Rangers southpaw missed his most recent start in the rotation because of an issue with back tightness. I expect the back to be in the "back" of his mind today too and it could definitely impact his effectiveness. With the wind blowing out toward right center and temperatures nearing 70 degrees coupled with the fact that the ball does carry better in day games at Oakland, you have all the right ingredients for some "healthy" scoring in this one! Note that the Rangers Minor has a 6.48 ERA in road games this season. The A's are 8-2 in their last 10 games and have averaged scoring 6.4 runs per game in those 6 victories. They stay hot at the plate Wednesday but the Texas bats join the party in this one too! 10* OVER the total in Oakland |
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08-21-18 | Reds v. Brewers OVER 9 | Top | 9-7 | Win | 105 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #907 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds @ 8:10 ET - Yesterday's game stayed under the total but this pitching match-up should lead to plenty of runs Tuesday. The Reds Sal Romano has struggled in the majority of his starts since mid-May. During this rough 3-month stretch, the Cincinnati right-hander has made 15 starts and the over is 11-3-1 in those 15 outings! The Brewers are very familiar with Romano and he would probably rather face anyone other than Milwaukee as he is 0-5 with a 5.70 ERA in his five career starts versus them. As for Brewers starter Junior Guerra, he is 1-1 with a no-decision in his last 3 starts versus the Reds. Though the Milwaukee right-hander pitched well in the no-decision versus Cincinnati, he certainly struggled in the other two starts. Guerra allowed 12 earned runs in just 10 innings spanning those two starts. Overall, Guerra has allowed 6 homers in his last last 15 innings versus the Reds! The over is 2-1 in those 3 starts and also he enters this start having gone 2-0 to the over in his last two outings as he allowed 17 hits in 9 and 2/3 innings combined versus the Padres and Cubs. Guerra has given up 3 homers in his last two starts at Miller Park. The over is 19-9 in the Reds last 28 games against teams with a winning record. The over is 13-6 in Milwaukee's last 19 games against teams with a losing record. Also, the Brewers are 6-2 to the over this season in home games where they are a favorite in a range of -175 to -250. Look for more of the same on Tuesday. 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee |
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08-20-18 | Ravens v. Colts +1 | Top | 20-19 | Push | 0 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFLX Game #432 Monday 10* Top Play Indianapolis Colts (+) vs Baltimore Ravens @ 8 ET - The Colts opened up as a 1.5 point favorite for this game but now are as much as a 1.5 point dog as of early game day morning. Of course the betting markets are jumping all over the Ravens here due to Baltimore's success in the preseason. Indeed Jim Harbaugh has a great record in preseason action but do you really think the odds makers aren't aware of this when they set these lines? The fact is that the betting markets are ignoring the fact that the Colts are very hungry right now with new head coach Frank Reich. They got the win at Seattle last week and, keep in mind, Indianapolis did score 5 times against the Seahawks. The reason for "only" 19 points was 4 field goals and just 1 touchdowns but there is no argument about the fact that the Colts played quite well last week. Now Indy makes their home debut under coach Reich and it is on Monday Night with ESPN cameras rolling. Of course it is still "just" preseason but I have no doubt that, given this situation, the Colts are going to "bring it" tonight. Conversely, the Ravens are off of a blowout win versus the Rams last week (33-7) and teams oftentimes fall short after big rout wins like that. Give me the more motivated team, the hungrier team, the home dog, in this one! 10* INDIANAPOLIS |
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08-20-18 | Indians v. Red Sox OVER 8 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #963 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Indians @ 7:10 ET - This total opened up at an 8.5 and has dropped to an 8 as of early game day morning. Yes, I understand that both of these pitchers are solid starters. I also am aware that it will be rather cool for an August evening in Boston and the wind won't necessarily hurt us but also won't help us. However, the fact is that this is still a very hitter-friendly ballpark and it is still a match-up featuring two very potent lineups! That said, getting a total of 8 with these two teams squaring off at Fenway Park is a great value. Trust me, the Red Sox are happy to see the Rays leave town as their pitching staff (wealth of relieving talent too) can be so frustrating to face. Look for Boston to bounce back big after yesterday's shutout loss. I also like having the over here after losing with the Indians over yesterday. That total was an 8.5 and the game was 8-0 Cleveland after just 4 innings and lost! Tough beat but it happens and we turn the page to a new day and I look for the Indians to stay hot at the plate. The Tribe have averaged scoring 6.1 runs per game their last 7 games. The Red Sox are 13-3 in August and are ranked #1 out of all 30 teams with a .500 slugging percentage this month! Boston is scoring an average of 6.6 runs per game this month! Cleveland's Corey Kluber has a 4.50 ERA in his last 4 road starts. The over is 16-4-1 in Kluber's last 21 starts! Boston's Rick Porcello has allowed 21 hits in his last 16 innings versus the Indians and gave up 3 homers to Cleveland the last time he faced them. The Red Sox right-hander has a 6.85 ERA in his last 4 home starts. The over is 12-5-1 in Porcello's last 18 starts. More of the same here! 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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08-19-18 | Diamondbacks v. Padres OVER 8 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
Divisional Game of the Year - Rickenbach MLB Game #911 Sunday 10* OVER the total in San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 4:10 ET - The Diamondbacks fell short 7-6 yesterday but they continue to love hitting Padres pitching. Arizona has averaged scoring 8 runs per game in their last 8 games against San Diego. Also, with yesterday's game flying over the total, the over is now 5-1 in the 6 games played at Petco Park this season! I expect more of the same on Sunday afternoon. Not only does the ball carry better in day games in San Diego, we're also getting a low total to work with because Zack Greinke is on the mound. Now, don't get me wrong, Greinke is a fine pitcher but there is no doubt that he is more comfortable on his own mound in comparison with enemy mounds. This season opponents are hitting 55 points higher against Greinke when he is on the road and his ERA is 1.36 runs higher when away from home. This is not a "one year fluke" either as last season he went 13-1 at home but only 4-6 on the road where opponents hit 47 points higher against him. The real key to the value here is that Arizona could very well get this game over the total all by themselves. As noted above, they love hitting Padres pitching and the other key here is that Padres rookie starter Brett Kennedy has been absolutely crushed in each of his first two starts this season. Both of those games flew over the total and the over is now 9-4 in the Padres last 13 games. Though Petco Park has a reputation as a pitchers park the markets tend to over-adjust for this and that is why the over is 37-24 in Padres home games this season. Also, only 6 of Arizona's last 17 games versus teams with a losing record have resulted in an under. In other words, you can see why plenty of runs can be expected again this afternoon at Petco Park. 10* OVER the total in San Diego |
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08-18-18 | Tigers v. Twins OVER 9.5 | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #975 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers @ 7:10 ET - The Twins Kohl Stewart has a really tough assignment here. Not only is he making just the 2nd MLB appearance of his career, he has to face the same team he made his debut against last week. Giving the Tigers another look at him is unlikely to do him any favors as they were already "dialed in" on him in his debut. Stewart allowed 3 earned runs on 8 hits in just 4 and 1/3 innings. Also, in over 100 innings of work in the minors this season, Stewart got hit at a .301 clip. Simply put, he is struggling as he has moved up to facing higher-caliber hitters. As for his counterpart in this match-up, the Tigers Ryan Carpenter is also likely to struggle. The Detroit southpaw went 2-8 with a 5.00 ERA and a .308 batting average in the minors this season. Carpenter has, of course, found major league hitters to be just as tough to get out! The lefty has a 6.39 ERA and has been hit at a .315 clip in his 4 MLB appearances (3 starts) this season. You can see exactly why I am expecting both of these hurlers to struggle. As for the relievers behind them, these teams' bullpen ERA cumulative on the season ranks them each in the bottom third of the majors! The over is 3-0 in the Twins last 3 games and there have been 0 unders in Detroit's last 5 games. Look for another one here! 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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08-18-18 | Raiders v. Rams OVER 38 | Top | 15-19 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFLX Game #419 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Rams vs Oakland Raiders @ 4 ET - Earlier in the week this total was as high as a 42.5 and now, as of game day morning, there are shops with this one as low as a 38. First off, we have value here but, secondly, there is a situational aspect to this game that I believe the markets are not measuring properly at all. That is the fact that these teams open up the regular season in Week 1 on Monday September 10th. Of course that means the teams are wanting to be extremely vanilla in this match-up. This is part of what is driving the markets to move this total lower and lower. However, the reality is that the fact that the defenses are each going to be extremely vanilla here is what should really be factored into it. If you're not showing special coverage packages in your secondary or you're not putting together different stunts or looks or blitz packages, a defense is pretty easy to beat just with regular play-calling on offense. That is the key point here and that is the reasoning behind why I expect this game, perhaps more than any other one this preseason, to play out like a complete dress rehearsal. As a result, I expect the end product to be more than enough offense to get over the low total posted on this game. With both teams off of Week 1 games where their offenses did not put up many points, there has been an over-reaction from the markets. This game is highly likely to play out much differently than many expect as the key is going to be very vanilla defensive schemes. 10* OVER the total in Los Angeles Rams |
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08-17-18 | Ottawa v. Winnipeg OVER 53.5 | Top | 44-21 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach CFL Game #371 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Winnipeg Blue Bombers vs Ottawa Redblacks @ 8:30 ET - The Redblacks scored only 24 points versus Montreal last week but this was despite Ottawa QB Trevor Harris throwing for nearly 500 yards! In other words, the low point total versus the Alouettes was certainly a bit of a fluke. With both the Redblacks and Blue Bombers off of wins and with Winnipeg possibly peeking ahead to their huge game at league-best Calgary next week and Ottawa possibly peeking ahead to their bye week, I would not be surprised to see both defenses struggle in this match-up. There is simply a natural let-up in cases like this in terms of defensive intensity and the fact that this is a non-divisional match-up also adds to the likelihood of plenty of points. The over is 13-5 in Ottawa's last 18 Friday games. As for Winnipeg, the over is 10-4 in their last 14 games against teams with a winning record. Also, in weeks 10 through 15 of a season, the over is on an 8-3 run in Blue Bombers games. Look for a huge game from QB Matt Nichols here for the home team but the Bombers defense is not going to slow down a red hot Trevor Harris either and this one turns into a shootout. 10* OVER the total in Winnipeg |
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08-17-18 | Rays v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 109 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #919 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays @ 7:10 ET - Ryne Stanek gets the starts for the Rays but, of course, Tampa Bay uses the "full game bullpen" approach when he is on the mound so he only goes 1 or 2 innings anyway. The reason I like the over so much here is that the Red Sox are plenty familiar with Tampa's relievers at this late point in the season and being one of the best home hitting teams in the majors means we should see plenty of runs from Boston here. Of course Fenway Park is a hitter-friendly venue and also favorable weather is expected tonight as well. As for the Red Sox starter, Brian Johnson, he has given up 10 runs (8 earned) in the 12 innings spanning his last two starts. The lefty has allowed 5 homers in those two starts and the Rays swung the bats much better in yesterday's game versus the Yankees than what the final score would indicate. That said, this one has "slugfest" written all over it. The Red Sox averaged 7.2 runs per game in their 9-game road trip that wrapped up on Wednesday. Only 18 of Boston's last 47 games when playing after a day off have stayed under the total. Look for the over to improve to 3-0 in Johnson's last 3 starts and to improve to 5-2 on the season in Stanek's starts away on natural fields this season. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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08-16-18 | Mets v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-9 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
Bulldog's Best - Rickenbach MLB Game #953 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets @ 7:05 ET (Game 2 of double header) - The Phillies used a ton of bullpen in last night's win over the Red Sox as starting pitcher Vincent Velasquez was ineffective and had to make an early exit. With that said, and with a rookie starting Game 1 of the double-header today, the Phillies bulllpen is likely to be missing some arms (or at the very least have some tired arms) by the time Game 2 of the double-header rolls around tonight. Philadelphia will be working on its 3rd game in a span of 24 hours. I know Zach Eflin has put up some solid numbers this season and that is why the move for a very short demotion to minors wan't really a demotion...it was just because of roster reasons after some recent trades. However, I do feel this could effect Eflin's effectiveness due to the "mental aspect" of pitching. Also, his last 3 starts have come against the Marlins, Reds, and Padres. Those are the 3 last place teams at the very bottom of each division in the National League! Now I know the Mets also don't have that impressive of a record but New York has averaged scoring 7 runs per game their last 7 games and I do feel Eflin is going to struggle after the "demotion that wasn't" per se! As for Mets starter Steven Matz, struggles are also likely as he had a strained flexor-pronator muscle in his throwing arm and has been awful recently. In his 3 starts since the All Star break the southpaw has a 12.34 ERA! The over is 4-0 in the last 4 starts Matz has made and, per all of the above, another one is very likely here. 10* OVER the total in Philadelphia |
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08-15-18 | Red Sox v. Phillies +120 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 120 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #922 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (+) vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:05 ET - There is no doubt that the Phillies key problem is at the plate. They continue to get good starting pitching and also their bullpen has been quite solid this season. That said, if the Phillies are virtually "guaranteed" of a decent game at the plate, they have been winning a high percentage of those games. This absolutely looks like one of those games Wednesday. The Red Sox are starting Nathan Eovaldi in this one and the right-hander has allowed 4 earned runs or more in 5 of his last 7 starts! In fact, Eovaldi's ERA during this stretch is an ugly 6.63 and he has been particularly roughed up of late. The righty has given up 19 hits in just 5 and 1/3 innings spanning his last two road starts. Clearly ugly numbers and the Phillies bats certainly are "due" for a breakout game and will take advantage. While hard to trust on the road, Philadelphia is a better hitting team when at Citizens Bank Park. The Red Sox won Eovaldi's most recent road start but previously his team's record in road outings was 1-5 his last 6. The Phillies Vincent Velasquez has been absolutely fantastic at home as he has allowed only 9 earned runs on just 15 hits in the 34 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 6 home starts. That means he is giving up LESS than ONE hit every TWO innings in his home starts the past two months! Boston, of course, is the best team in MLB, but the Phillies have a huge pitching edge here plus are 25-12 in home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs this season. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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08-15-18 | Mariners v. A's OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 5 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #911 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oakland A's vs Seattle Mariners @ 3:35 ET - The total on this one has dropped from an opener of a 9 down to an 8.5 and I am well aware of yesterday's low-scoring 3-2 A's win as well as the fact that Oakland has been trending under of late. That said, I am going contrarian here and going with the over. For one things, the Mariners have been trending over of late. For another, the ball does carry better in day games at Oakland Coliseum. Additionally, I am not that impressed with either one of the starting pitchers taking the mound today. The Mariners Mike Leake has a low ERA over his last 3 starts but he has allowed 25 hits in 18 and 2/3 innings spanning those 3 outings. Also, in his last 3 road starts, Leake has allowed 25 hits in just 16 innings of work! The Athletics should get to him early and often. The issue for Oakland however will be their own starting pitcher. Southpaw Brett Anderson gets the call here and the lefty is facing a Mariners team that is 4th in the AL with a .261 batting average versus left-handed pitching. Anderson has a "decent" ERA this season but he continues to allow opponents to be a hitting machine. Note that since his "respectable" 2015 campaign with the Dodgers, Anderson has given up 154 hits in 114 and 1/3 innings. That means he gives up about 4 hits every 3 innings and this a 3 year trend! Opponents are hitting well over .300 against him during this 3-year stretch and I love the value we're getting with the low total here. I'll take it! 10* OVER the total in Oakland |
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08-14-18 | Diamondbacks v. Rangers +1.5 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #974 Tuesday 10* Top Play Texas Rangers Run Line +1.5 runs vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 8:05 ET - The Diamondbacks struggles to hit on the road continue to give them trouble. Yesterday they faced 45 year old Bartolo Colon and finished the game with only 6 hits. The Diamondbacks .230 batting average on the road this season ties them with the Rockies for DEAD LAST in the National League. Tonight Arizona faces a pitcher who has been red hot of late. Yovani Gallardo is 4-0 with a 2.78 ERA in his last 4 starts while holding the opposition to a .213 batting average in those outings. He also is a superb 8-2 with a 2.21 ERA in his 15 starts against the Dbacks in his career. He'll be opposed by Arizona southpaw Patrick Corbin. While the lefty does have good numbers on the season, he is facing a Rangers team whose .446 slugging percentage in home games ranks them 5th out of all 30 MLB teams. Two more big homers led the way for Texas yesterday and they have averaged scoring 8.4 runs per game in going 6-2 in their last 8 home games. We're getting great market value here because the markets overemphasize pitching and that includes looking a lot at long-term numbers and they don't give enough weight to hitting. The summation, Gallardo has pitched just as well as Corbin of late and the Rangers hitting at home is much better than the Diamondbacks hitting on the road. In the last ten home games for Texas at +1.5 runs they have a record of 9-1, 90%! That's right...only one home loss by more than one run in their last ten home games! As for Arizona, at -1.5 runs in road games, they're 3-6 their last 9 games. The Rangers price at +1.5 runs is right around even money which is a true bargain as you can see per the above. I'll take it! 10* TEXAS +1.5 runs |
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08-14-18 | White Sox v. Tigers OVER 9 | Top | 6-3 | Push | 0 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #961 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:10 ET - Tigers starter Blaine Hardy gave up 3 homers in 5 innings in his most recent start. Though he was pitching better prior to the tough at Los Angeles against the Angels, the White Sox will prove not to be a good match-up for him. Though his numbers show good starts against them this season, keep in mind players change teams in today's MLB more frequently than years gone by. There are a number of hitters on the White Sox roster whom have enjoyed success against Hardy. Chicago has scored 12 runs on 20 hits in their past two games. Also, they have scored 13 runs in their past two road games and are 3-1 their last 4 away from home. Despite yesterday's 9-5 loss, they carry some confidence stepping up to the plate in this one. The issue for the White Sox however will be the fact that their own starting pitcher is also likely to struggle. Lucas Giolito has given up at least 5 earned runs in 2 of his last 3 starts. The Sox lefty has allowed at least 4 earned runs in 8 of his last 14 starts. He is facing a Tigers team that ranks 8th out of all 30 teams for batting average versus southpaws this season. Also, Giolito has allowed 5 earned runs in each of his two starts versus Detroit this season. The over is 14-4 in Chicago's last 18 games against teams with a losing record. Also, when the White Sox enter a game on a losing streak of 3 or more games, the over is 22-7 this season! The over is 3-1 in Hardy's last 4 home starts. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Detroit |
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08-13-18 | Nationals v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #903 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in St Louis Cardinals vs Washington Nationals @ 8:10 ET - Many will be expecting the Nationals to be flat here after the demoralizing 2-out 2-strike grand slam that turned a 3-0 win into a 4-3 loss in the bottom of the 9th yesterday. However, I disagree. I think the Nats are going to be very feisty here and I expect them to enjoy success at the plate against Miles Mikolas. The issue for Washington is that their own starter, Tom Milone, can't be trusted here. Hence, a big play on the over for me. First off, as for Mikolas, the Cardinals right-hander has been more hittable lately than he was earlier this season. He has given up 26 hits in the 23 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 4 home starts. As you can see, Mikolas certainly has not been unhittable of late! As for Milone, the Nationals southpaw got rocked for 7 earned runs on 10 hits in just 6 innings in his most recent start and that was at home. In his only road start with the Nats he allowed 8 hits in just 5 innings. Look for the Cardinals to do plenty of damage at the plate in a game that should turn into a back and forth slugfest. Look for the over to improve to 3-1 in Milone's starts. Also, the Cards are 15-8 to the over in their last 23 games against teams with a winning record. 10* OVER the total in St Louis |
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08-11-18 | Montreal v. Ottawa OVER 49.5 | Top | 17-24 | Loss | -109 | 94 h 15 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach CFL Game #355 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Ottawa Redblacks vs Montreal Alouettes @ 8:00 ET - The over is 2-0 in the Alouettes last two games as they've allowed an average of 47 points per game. While it is true that there were a lot of points off Johnny Manziel's turnovers last week it is also true that Montreal's defense has allowed 481 yards or more in 3 of their last 4 games. The Redblacks have also had issues on defense as they've seemed to wear down as games have gone on. Ottawa has allowed an average of 411 yards per game their past 4 games. Also, the Redblacks have given up 25 points or more in 3 of their last 4 games. The Als run game has produced an average of 154 yards per game on the ground the past two weeks and this will open things up for the passing offense to get things going this week as the Ottawa D has to respect Montreal's ground game. Other than a tough game versus league-best Calgary, the Redblacks offense has been in high-gear, particularly through the air, and the porous pass defense of the Alouettes will be tested early and often in this one. The end result should be the over improving to 3-1 in the Redblacks last 4 games. 10* OVER the total in Ottawa |
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08-11-18 | Brewers v. Braves OVER 9 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Game #905 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Atlanta Braves vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 7:10 ET - The Braves crushed the Brewers 10-1 yesterday and are also one of the top hitting teams in the majors against left-handed pitching. In other words, the Atlanta bats should absolutely stay hot today as they take advantage of facing southpaw Wade Miley. The Brewers lefty shows some good numbers in terms of his stats but, he has had limited action and will be exposed here. Other than a superb start against the Dodgers Miley's other outings have seen him allow 13 walks and 20 hits (total of 33 baserunners) in 21 and 1/3 innings! The start against the Dodgers was the only one of Miley's last 5 outings that have stayed under the total. The over is 7-1-1 in Milwaukee's games this month and they should pound Julio Teheran. The Braves, overall, have gone 4-1-1 to the over in their last 6 games and Teheran is likely to struggle here. He has lost command of his slider and walks have often been an issue for him of late plus, overall, his ERA is north of 5 over his past ten starts! Teheran allowed 7 earned runs in just 3 innings when he most recently faced the Brewers. The Brewers had averaged scoring 5.4 runs per game in their last 8 games prior to yesterday's loss. They'll bounce back here and the Braves bats (7.5 runs per game last 4 at home) stay red hot. 10* OVER the total in Atlanta |
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08-10-18 | Hamilton +5.5 v. Winnipeg | Top | 23-29 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 35 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFL Game #353 Friday 10* Top Play Hamilton Tiger-Cats (+) @ Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 8:30 ET - Everyone has been piling on to the Blue Bombers here and I am going contrarian and grabbing the Tiger-Cats in this one. Hamilton is not only 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games at Winnipeg, the Ti-Cats are also 5-1 SU in those last 6 visits! Overall, Hamilton has earned a well-deserved reputation as "road warriors" at the betting window as they are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games overall! Winnipeg opened up as a 4-point choice here but is now as high as a -5.5 early in the week but this is a Blue Bombers team that has lost 10 of its last 14 games against Hamilton SU. The Tiger-Cats beat them at home in June and certainly Winnipeg would like revenge but the Ti-Cats outgained the Blue Bombers by 200 yards in that beatdown. Prior to that game the road team had a yardage edge over the home team in each of the 3 prior meetings and I would not be surprised to see that trend resume here as Hamilton's road warrior efforts continue. Even though the Blue Bombers have been hot they've played a lot of weaker teams and the Tiger-Cats have a bye week on deck so they're going hard all game in this one. 10* HAMILTON |
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08-10-18 | Twins v. Tigers OVER 9 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #971 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins @ 7:10 ET - Ervin Santana has not looked right since he returned from the disabled list. The numbers don't lie and the velocity is down on his pitches. Also, he has allowed 20 hits in less than 15 innings of work spanning his 3 starts. In his last two starts Santana has given up 4 homers. Speaking of problems with giving up the long ball, the Tigers Jordan Zimmerman has allowed a pair of homers in each of his last 3 starts! The Detroit right-hander has a 6.91 ERA in his last 3 starts while Minesota's Santana has a 6.14 ERA in his 3 starts. Neither pitcher in good current form and both of these hurlers also have a match-up concern here. I say that because Zimmerman has allowed 15 earned runs in just 12 innings spanning his last 3 starts versus the Twins! As for Santana, he has allowed 12 runs (10 earned) on 21 hits in 15 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts versus the Tigers. The over is 3-0 in Zimmerman's last 3 starts against Minnesota and 2-0 in Santana's last 2 starts against Detroit. The Twins enters this game on a run of 5-2 to the over after yesterday's game at Cleveland flew over the total. Minnesota is a long-term 10-7-72 to the over in games against teams with a losing record. Both of these bullpens rank in the lower third of the majors too! The over is a long-term 40-23 in Twins Friday games including 11-4 this season! The Tigers have had just 18 unders the last 50 times (36%) that they were playing after a day off. Plenty of offense in this one! 10* OVER the total in Detroit |
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08-09-18 | Dodgers v. Rockies OVER 10.5 | Top | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #905 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:40 ET - The Rockies Tyler Anderson has trended under this season in his home starts. The Dodgers Ross Stripling has trended under this season in his road starts. As a result, you have a situation where the betting markets and public or square bettors are going to help us get some additional value here. That's because both of these pitchers are likely to get hammered here but yet this total is holding at a 10.5 as of gameday morning. Of course 10.5 may seem like a big number but not for a mid-August game at hitter-friendly Coors Field with two very strong lineups. Keys to the value here include the fact that the Dodgers Stripling is returning from a stint on the disabled list with an injury to the big toe on his right foot. Being a right-hander, that is is the foot he pushes off with and certainly could still be "on his mind" in his first start back. Stripling has allowed 9 earned runs in the 8 and 2/3 innings spanning his two starts since the All Star break. He allowed 4 homers in those two outings! The Rockies Anderson has also struggled recently with 11 earned runs allowed in the 10 innings spanning his last two starts. Like Stripling, Anderson has also allowed 4 homers in his last two starts. Stripling has a respectable ERA in his 3 career starts against the Rockies but the only 2 where he pitched more than 2 innings saw him allow 9 hits in 6 innings each time! In other words, he hasn't fooled many Colorado sticks and a "break through" against him is imminent. As for Anderson against the Dodgers, he had a great start at Dodger Stadium this season but, prior to that he was rocked for 9 earned runs in just 7 and 1/3 innings spanning his last two starts against Los Angeles and that included one at Coors Field. He gave up 3 homers in those 7 and 1/3 innings. The over is 7-2-1 (78%) this season in Anderson's starts where is Rockies are an underdog and they are a home dog here. Look for a slugfest to erupt per the above angles! 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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08-08-18 | Braves v. Nationals OVER 9 | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #957 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves @ 7:05 ET - The Nationals Tom Milone is coming off of a great start but he faced the Mets. That outing has to be taken with a grain of salt. Now the southpaw faces a Braves team that ranks among the top teams in the majors against left-handed pitching. Atlanta is hitting .267 this season against lefties with a .450 slugging percentage! As for the Nationals, they are one of the top hitting teams in the National League when on their home field as Washington has a solid .263 batting average at home. Though the Braves Mike Foltneywicz has great overall numbers, the right-hander was hit hard at Washington late last month and has an ugly 1.78 WHIP in his last two starts at Nationals Park. Milone's start prior to shutting down the Mets saw him allow 3 earned runs on 8 hits in just 5 innings of work versus another weak team, the Marlins. That said, he is likely to struggle badly against a Braves team battling it out with the Phillies for the top spot in the NL East. Foltneywicz had a solid start in his most recent outing but this was against a weak Mets team. Prior to that he had some struggles in 4 straight outings and compiled a 6.94 ERA during this 4-start stretch! There have been only 2 unders in his last 8 starts. Look for the "over trend" to resume Wednesday as he and his counterpart on the hill are each likely to get roughed up. 10* OVER the total in Washington |
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08-07-18 | Pirates v. Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 10-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #909 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 8:40 ET - Yesterday's 2-0 Rockies win continued a rare stretch of low-scoring games at Coors Field. Look for normalcy to return tonight in Denver. The wind will be blowing out and I look for both pitchers to get hit hard. Colorado's Chad Bettis hasn't pitched in over a month and his ERA is 8.75 in his 7 home starts this season. The over is 5-1 in his last 6 home starts. Also, the over is 5-1 overall in the last 6 starts Bettis has made. Also, in his 7 starts since late May, Bettis has compiled an 8.15 ERA in those 7 outings. Bettis has a 7.45 ERA in his last two home starts against the Pirates. He'll be opposed by Jameson Taillon tonight. The Pittsburgh right-hander did have a solid start against the Rockies last season but that was NOT at Coors Field! Taillon will be making his first ever start in the Mile High City and this venue is not known for being kind to first-time starters. Also, he has a 4.12 ERA in night games in his career as he has been much better in day games. The over is 8-4 in Taillon's last 12 starts overall. Only 25 of the Pirates 68 night games have stayed under the total this season. With both Taillon and Bettis likely to get roughed up, this one does not stay under either! 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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08-06-18 | Yankees v. White Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 7-0 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #963 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees @ 8:10 ET - Lance Lynn makes his first start for the Yankees. Though he was impressive out of the bullpen in a 4 and 1/3 innings stint coming out of the New York bullpen, Lynn faced a struggling Orioles lineup. While the White Sox certainly are also a bad team, they have won 4 straight games plus they've averaged scoring 5.2 runs per game in their last 10 games. The over is 8-3 in Lynn's 11 road starts this season as he has compiled an ugly 7.08 ERA when pitching on enemy turf. Also, he has given up 16 hits in 11 innings in his last two starts at Guaranteed Rate Field. The White Sox counter with a struggling hurler of their own in this one. Chicago's Dylan Covey has struggled badly over his last eight outings. The White Sox right-hander has compiled an 8.68 ERA and ugly 1-6 record in these 8 starts. Covey has allowed 46 hits plus he has walked 22 in the 37 1/3 innings spanning these outings. Covey got absolutely crushed for 8 earned runs in 5 innings in his lone career start versus the Yankees. The over is 4-2 in his 6 home starts this season. The White Sox enter this game on an 8-3 run to the over in their last 11 games. Look for the Yankees over to improve to 14-8 the last 22 times they've been a road favorite of -175 or more. The Yanks bullpen has had some issues recently (again last night too) and New York has allowed an average of 7 runs per game during their current 5 game losing streak. 10* OVER the total in the Chicago White Sox game |
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08-05-18 | Yankees v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 4-5 | Push | 0 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #927 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees @ 8:05 ET - Masahiro Tanaka gets the start for the Yankees here and he has produced two straight scoreless outings. However, he faced the Orioles and Rays! Now the Yankees right-hander faces a Red Sox team that has crushed him for 10 earned runs in 10 and 1/3 innings in his last two starts against them. Tanaka allowed a pair of homers in each of those starts versus Boston and both of those outings occurred this season. Speaking of match-up problems here, Red Sox southpaw David Price is a horrible 2-6 with an 8.43 ERA in his 9 starts against the Yankees since he came to Boston in 2016. Price has been absolutely demolished by New York's bats this season as he has allowed 12 earned runs in just 4 and 1/3 innings. The lefty has allowed 6 homers in those two short outings! Yes the past two games of this series have been low-scoring but I would not be surprised to see this one turn into a high-scoring game like we saw in the first game of this 4-game set. Weather conditions at Fenway Park Sunday evening will also be ideal for an over. The over is 10-5 in Tanaka's last 15 starts. The over is 4-1 this season in Red Sox games where their money line is in a range of -125 to +125. Look for another one here. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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08-05-18 | Blue Jays v. Mariners OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #925 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 4:10 ET - The Mariners are looking to avoid suffering a 4-game sweep on their home field at the hands of the Blue Jays. While I do trust the Seattle bats to come to life against a sub-par pitcher in Sam Gaviglio, I also expect the Toronto bats to stay red hot against Mike Leake. As for the Blue Jays Gaviglio, the right-hander has an 8.41 ERA in his last 5 starts. The over is 5-2 in the 7 road starts that Gaviglio has made this season as he has compiled an ugly 8.78 ERA away from home. As for the Mariners Leake, he has a mediocre 4.78 ERA in his last 5 starts. The right-hander's ERA during this stretch could easily be higher as he has been rocked for 38 hits in 26 and 1/3 innings of work. Hence the value here as this is unlikely to be a good start for Leake. The Blue Jays saw him earlier this season plus they come into this game with a red hot lineup! Toronto has scored an average of 5.3 runs per game in their last 10 games and the over is still 10-3 in their last 13 games despite yesterday's game staying under the total. The over is 11-5 in Blue Jays Sunday games this season and they are 17-7 to the over this season as a road dog in a money line range of +125 to +175. The Mariners have stayed under the total in each of Leake's last two home starts but previously Seattle was 7-3 to the over in his home starts this season. The Mariners haven't stayed under in 3 straight home starts for Leake this season and I don't see that trend changing here either! Look for plenty of runs here and take advantage of the drop from 9 to 8.5 runs on this posted total. 10* OVER the total in Seattle |
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08-04-18 | Cardinals v. Pirates OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #953 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs St Louis Cardinals @ 7:05 ET - Austin Gomber had a successful outing in his first ever MLB start a week and a half ago. However, he primarily had been used out of the bullpen at the MLB level prior to that outing and one good start doesn't mean he is just going to come out and keep dominating. He goes from facing the NL Central cellar-dwelling Reds to now facing a red-hot Pirates team that became buyers rather than sellers at the trade deadline as they have been so hot that they got back into the playoff picture. With yesterday's win the Pirates are now 15-4 their last 19 games. However, I am playing the over rather than the Bucs here because Pittsburgh starter Ivan Nova is likely to get roughed up just like Gomber is for the Cards. Nova has a low ERA in his last 3 starts but he has been fortunate as he has nearly as many walks as strikeouts in his last two home starts. Overall his K numbers have been down and Nova has given up 13 hits in less than 10 innings spanning his last two home starts. Also, the Pirates right-hander has a 5.40 ERA in his last two starts versus St Louis as they've gotten to him for 19 hits (including 3 homers) and 6 walks in the 15 and 2/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts against them. The fact that Nova has trended under in his home starts this season and the fact that Gomber had a great first MLB start is keeping this total lower than it should be. The over is 13-6 in St Louis' last 19 games. The over is 14-7 in the Cardinals last 21 games versus teams with a winning record. The Pirates are 22-12 in home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. Pittsburgh is also 19-10 to the over in games against left-handed starters this season. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh early Saturday evening |
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08-03-18 | Orioles v. Rangers OVER 11 | Top | 3-11 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #921 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Baltimore Orioles @ 8:05 ET - Both of these teams have been knocking the cover off of the ball of late. The Orioles have notched at least 14 hits in 5 of their last 6 games. Baltimore has averaged scoring 9.2 runs per game during this stretch. The Rangers have pounded out double digits in hits in 5 of their last 7 games after notching 18 hits in last night's game. Texas has averaged scoring 7.7 runs in their last 9 games. The over is 9-4 in the Rangers last 13 games since the All Star break. The over is 6-0 in the Orioles last 6 games. Even though Ariel Jurado is off of a strong start in his most recent game this will be just the 3rd start of his MLB career. In the minors he has been hit at a .269 clip or higher in each of his last 3 seasons at the minor league level and that includes .302 last season. The point is that I am not putting too much stock into his successful start in his last outing. As for the Orioles David Hess, the over is 3-1 in his last 4 starts as he has compiled a 10.70 ERA in these outings. Hess allowed at least 5 earned runs in each of those 4 starts. Look for another wild one tonight as both of these starters are likely to struggle and neither team has a potent bullpen either! 10* OVER the total in Texas |
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08-03-18 | Hamilton v. Montreal +7 | Top | 50-11 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFL Game #376 Friday 10* Top Play Montreal Alouettes (+) vs Hamilton Tiger-Cats @ 7:30 ET - The Tiger-Cats went 6-12 last season and they are 2-4 so far this season. The Alouettes went 3-15 last season and are 1-5 so far this season. The point is that both teams are on track to have similar seasons to last year and there is not a lot that separates these two teams and yet Hamilton is laying a solid 7 on the road here at Montreal. The last time these two teams met in Quebec the Ti-Cats were favored in the 3 range. This means we're getting solid line value with the "ugly home dog" in this one. The key for the Als here is that one of their weaknesses has certainly been the play of the offensive line this season. However, Johnny Manziel gets the start at QB for Montreal here and certainly his running ability adds a factor that favors the Als in this match-up. Manziel as a run threat will keep the Hamilton defense off balance and, keep in mind, they're rushing defense is last in the league in terms of yards allowed per carry. That also makes RB Tyrell Sutton a threat to the Tiger-Cats defense as he may get more than his typical number of carries in this match-up. Additionally, Sutton has become a bigger threat in the passing game this season and that means Manziel and Sutton will both be dual threats in this match-up. This is a double revenge spot for the Als too as they lost badly in both games last season against Hamilton after previously covering each of the prior two meetings. Payback here. As strong as Ti-Cats QB Jeremiah Masoli's passing numbers are this season he has thrown more picks than touchdowns on the year! Hamilton continues to be over-rated and this could be their 4th straight SU loss and, at the very least, I am projecting this one to be an ATS loss for the stumbling Tiger-Cats. Hamilton is 1-5 ATS (and SU!) as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. Look for the Alouettes to improve to a long-term 6-3 ATS as a home dog in a range of 3.5 to 7 points as Manziel and Sutton shine! The hungry Als are gunning hard for their first home win of the season as they won't get another chance at home until 3 weeks from now. 10* MONTREAL |
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08-02-18 | Marlins v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 115 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
PA Insider - Rickenbach MLB Game #954 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 runs (+) vs Miami Marlins @ 7:05 ET - The Marlins Pablo Lopez was slated to go last night at Atlanta but that game got rained out. The delays and waiting around in Atlanta last night won't do any favors for the Marlins here. It also doesn't help that they are 0-11 in Thursday games this season! Miami right-hander Lopez has only made 5 starts and he has been roughed up in 3 of the last 4. Lopez has given up 5 earned runs twice and 4 earned runs once in his last 4 starts. None of his starts this season have gone more than 6 innings. That also holds significance here as the Miami bullpen is one of the worst in the majors. The Phillies certainly have an edge in the bullpen department and they also hold a huge edge in terms of the starting pitchers here. Nick Pivetta gets the start for Philadelphia. He shut out the Marlins for 5 and 2/3 innings while striking out 9 in his scoreless outing versus Miami early this season. Pivetta enters this start having struck out 133 in his 106 and 2/3 innings on the season. These are fantastic numbers and the key for Pivetta is avoiding occasional mistake pitches and he has progressed in this department as the season has gone on. The Phils are 9-3 in Thursday games and 9-4 this season when playing after a day off. In home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs the Phillies are 21-11 this season. 11 of the Phillies last 13 wins have come by 2 or more runs. Each of Miami's last 9 losses have come by 2 or more runs! That said, of course I am avoiding laying big juice here on the money line as plus money is being offered on the run line. Value! 10* PHILADELPHIA Run Line -1.5 runs |
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08-02-18 | Ottawa v. Toronto +6.5 | Top | 41-42 | Win | 100 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach CFL Game #372 Thursday 10* Top Play Toronto Argonauts (+) vs Ottawa Redblacks @ 7 ET - Simply put this is an inflated line and it has resulted in great value on the other side. Ottawa opened up at a 3.5 point road favorite in this one and is now up to a 6.5 in most spots. Yes the Redblacks are having a much better start to this season than the Argonauts but let's not forget that Toronto is at home here plus coming off of a bad loss last week while the Redblacks are on the road plus off of a huge win last week. From a situational standpoint this spot favors the Argos in a big way and the more time back-up QB James Franklin adjusting to his starting role in the absence of the injured Ricky Ray, the more improvement we should see from him. Not only are the Argonauts a sizable dog here they have won 7 of their last 9 meetings with the Redblacks SU. Also, the Argos are 9-1 SU the last ten times they've faced Ottawa at home in Toronto! The Redblacks are 3-9 ATS as a favorite in a range of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Also, Ottawa is 2-9 ATS when off of a win against a division rival. Look for the Argonauts to improve to 3-0 ATS the last 3 times they were at home with a posted total in range of 45.5 to 49 points. 10* TORONTO |
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07-30-18 | Rockies +130 v. Cardinals | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #903 Monday 10* Top Play Colorado Rockies Money Line (+) @ St Louis Cardinals @ 8:10 ET - The Rockies have won 4 straight games and are now 16-5 in the month of July. Also, Colorado is 17-5 in their last 22 games against teams with a winning record. Of course with the Cardinals at home they are going to get a lot of attention from the betting markets here but I am going contrarian and going with the road dog. St Louis has lost 9 of its last 15 games. Also, starting pitcher Carlos Martinez has a 7.20 ERA in his last two starts (both losses). St Louis is a poor 3-7 in his last 10 starts. As for the Rockies, they are 3-2 in Tyler Anderson's last 5 starts but certainly they could be 5-0 in these! The Colorado southpaw has allowed just 4 earned runs while striking out 35 in the 35 and 1/3 innings spanning these 5 outings. As you can see, Anderson has been in top form while Martinez has been struggling. I expect more of the same Monday evening. 10* COLORADO |
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07-30-18 | Indians v. Twins OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -127 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Game #909 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Indians @ 8:10 ET - The Indians Shane Bieber has allowed at least 4 runs in 4 straight starts. In one of the outings only 3 of the runs were earned but the point is that Bieber has consistently struggled in recent starts. Also, his most recent start saw him get completely crushed by the Pirates. Bieber will be facing the Twins for the 3rd time this season and this certainly is an advantage for the Minnesota lineup. Bieber has only allowed 5 earned runs in his first two starts versus the Twins but he has been fortunate to say the least. Bieber has given up 18 hits in 11 and 1/3 innings so certainly he escaped some jams and is unlikely to be so fortunate here. As for the Minnesota starter Monday, Ervin Santana gets the call. I am well aware of the fact that he has great numbers in recent starts versus the Indians but this is a unique situation for him. He is making just his 2nd start of this season after a long stint on the DL and, in his first start back, Santana gave up 3 earned runs on 7 hits in just 5 innings of work and this was against a Toronto team that certainly hasn't been playing at the level of the Indians this season. In fact, Cleveland is hitting .284 in the month of July and averaging 6.2 runs per game this month. Both of those stats have them #1 in the league. The over is 9-3 in the Indians last 12 games versus teams with a losing record. The over is 13-7 in Twins home games with a money line ranging from -125 to +125. Look for another one here! 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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07-29-18 | Cubs v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #963 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in St Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs @ 8:05 ET - I had this play yesterday and it was also an over 8.5 and I got burned bad as it did not go over the total despite being 6-0 after 1 inning and 6-2 by the top of the 4th. I won't hesitate to come right back with the same play today as the Cardinals John Gant shows good overall numbers as a starter but only 2 of his 7 starts have been quality starts. In most outings Gant labors just to complete 5 innings and his ERA in these other 5 starts is a modest 5.04 combined. The Cubs just saw him last week and Gant certainly wasn't dominant as he was fortunate to hold them scoreless over 5 innings. As for Chicago starter Kyle Hendricks, he just faced the Cardinals last week and he allowed 3 earned runs on 9 hits in less than 5 innings of work. Hendricks has allowed an average of 2 base runners per inning in his last 2 starts and bigger trouble is on the way based on his current hittability. He also has allowed about 2 base runners per inning in his last two starts versus the Cardinals. Hendricks has a 4.70 ERA on the road this season and only 3 of his last 9 road starts have resulted in an under. The over is 6-3 in Chicago's last 9 games versus a right-handed starter and the Cards are 10-5 to the over in their last 15 games versus teams with a winning record. 10* OVER the total in St Louis |
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07-29-18 | A's v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -112 | 5 h 48 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #979 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Oakland A's @ 3:10 ET - The A's had been one of the hottest lineups in baseball heading into this series at hitter-friendly Coors Field. Of course it only makes sense then that a lot of runs should be expected. Inexplicably however, Oakland has been held to scoring just 1 run in each of the first two games of this series. In other words, look for a huge bounce back here! The A's had averaged scoring 10.3 runs per game in the first 4 games of this road trip - all at Texas. Oakland has averaged 11 hits per game so far on this road trip and should get right back on track in terms of run production by taking advantage of facing a struggling pitcher Sunday. The Rockies German Marquez gave up 5 runs in 5 innings in his most recent start and that was on the road. Note that the Colorado right-hander has a 7.31 ERA in his 10 home starts this season! The A's hurler is also likely to struggle here. Not only is the over 7-2 in Frankie Montas 9 starts this season, this will be his first ever start at Coors Field. This venue is not known for being very kind to first-timers and the Rockies step to the plate with plenty of confidence here as they've gone 15-4 in their last 19 games. Colorado is one of the top hitting teams in the league when at home and the over is 7-3 in Marquez home starts and 4-1 in Montas road starts. More of the same here! 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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07-28-18 | Calgary v. Saskatchewan +6.5 | Top | 34-22 | Loss | -105 | 50 h 18 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach CFL Game #368 Saturday 10* Top Play Saskatchewan Roughriders (+) vs Calgary Stampeders @ 9 ET - Nice scheduling situation for the Roughriders here. They come into this game with plenty of momentum. Saskatchewan is off of back to back wins versus the Tiger-Cats which including rallying for a win by a double digit margin at Hamilton last week. Additionally, the Riders had a bye week in between the two victories over the Ti-Cats and they also hold a rest edge over the Stampeders this week. That is because Calgary is off of a Saturday win over Montreal while Saskatchewan's win at Hamilton was a Thursday game. Two extra days of rest, home field edge with arguably the most passionate fans in the CFL, and a chance to upset the a division rival who remains undefeated on the season. There is no question the Roughriders are going to be ready to go and I love the home dog value in this one. Keep in mind the Riders had a huge game on the ground last week and that balanced offensive attack (most CFL teams are pass-happy) is going to keep the Stampeders defense off-balance in this match-up. I am well aware of the fact that the Stamps have held the upper hand in recent meetings between these teams but Calgary has average just 25.3 points per game their past 3 games and their being asked to win this tough road game by 7 or more. That's a big ask and I love the home dog in this match-up. 10* SASKATCHEWAN |
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07-28-18 | Phillies -124 v. Reds | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -124 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #903 Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) @ Cincinnati Reds @ 6:40 ET - The Phillies fell short yesterday but they entered Friday's action having won 26 of their last 40 games. As for the Reds, prior to yesterday's win they had lost 6 of their 8 previous games. Cincinnati's Matt Harvey got rocked for 8 earned runs in less than 4 inning in his most recent start and that was also at home just like today's is. Though he had not allowed a lot of earned runs in prior recent outings, Harvey has now allowed 21 hits in the 14 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts. Harvey did enjoy success against the Phillies earlier this season but they certainly are a much different team now than they were then. Philadelphia is in first place in the NL East and they've also added Asdrubal Cabrera from the Mets. Even if he does not play today the fact is that the first-place Phillies are serious about not only winning but doing everything they can to win now! Harvey struggled against the Phillies in 2017 and they'll hit him better in the rematch than the first start this year just as was the case last season. Additionally, huge edge for the Phils here because it will be the first-ever start for Vincent Velasquez against the Reds. The Cincinnati hitters have almost zero experience against him as a collective group and Velasquez also comes into this start in top current form. The Phillies right-hander has a 2.38 ERA in his last 6 starts and has held hitters to a paltry .134 batting average in those 6 outings! The Phillies are 29-15 this season when off of a loss. The Reds are a long-term 92-141 when facing a team with a winning record. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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07-28-18 | Cubs v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 25 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #901 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in St Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs @ 4:05 ET - The Cubs Jose Quintana threw over 120 pitches in his most recent start. Though he got the win and has enjoyed recent success since making some adjustments to his change-up, the issue the southpaw is going to have here is that he is facing the same team he just beat Sunday. Not only could he fatigue early in this one after the lengthy start in his last outing, the Cardinals will also have an edge in having just seen him. That means the tweaks he made to his change aren't going to be effective in the 2nd meeting in 6 days. He'll be opposed by the Cardinals Miles Mikolas. The right-hander has struggled a bit in 2 straight starts now as Mikolas has allowed 5 earned runs on 12 hits and 4 walks in 9 innings spanning his last two starts. The Cards will be seeing him for the 3rd time already this season and, by the way, the Cubs hitters will be facing Quintana for the 4th time already this season. Quintana has been great in night games this season but note that he has a 5.01 ERA in day games this year! As for Mikolas, the recent struggles also could relate to his wife having recently given birth to twins. He was on the paternity list recently and this is a home game for him so, again, the distractions of home will certainly be present again. Look for both starters to struggle here. Even with yesterday's game staying under the total, the over is still 10-4 in match-ups between these teams this season. Also, the Cubs are 10-4 to the over their last 14 games overall and the Cards are 11-4 to the over their last 15 games overall. 10* OVER the total in St Louis |
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07-27-18 | Rangers v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 11-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #973 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers @ 8:10 ET - The Rangers Yovani Gallardo gave up 0 earned runs in 6 innings in his most recent start at home against the Indians. However, he walked 4 and struck out 1. This guy has not had a solid season at the MLB level since 2015! This year he has a 7.47 ERA in his 3 road starts and all 3 went over the total. Though his start versus Cleveland stayed under the total that was his first start for Texas this season that has stayed under the total. Gallardo has a 4-1 record on the season but, hands down, this is absolutely the worst pitcher in MLB to have an 80% winning percentage - no questions asked. He is likely to get crushed by the defending World Champs here as his road struggles continue. As for Houston's Dallas Keuchel, of course I am well aware of the fact that he is a very good pitcher and that this is particularly true at home. However, the Rangers are very familiar with him as these division rivals face off so often. In fact, this will be the 4th time in just 2 and 1/2 months that the Rangers are getting a shot at Keuchel. In the two most recent starts Texas has gotten to him for 8 runs (7 earned) on 18 hits in 11 and 1/3 innings. The over is 6-2 in the Rangers last 8 games overall and they have scored 5 or more runs in 7 of their last 10 games. The Astros are averaging 5.2 runs per game this season against right-handed starters and certainly should have no trouble with the offerings of Gallardo. In fact, the Astros have pounded out 22 hits in his last 16 and 2/3 innings against them. 10* OVER the total in Houston |
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07-26-18 | White Sox v. Angels -1.5 | Top | 8-12 | Win | 110 | 6 h 31 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #914 Thursday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Angels Run Line -1.5 runs vs Chicago White Sox @ 4:05 ET - If you like the Angels to win this game you can certainly feel a comfort level playing them on the run line (1.5 runs) at a plus money price (+110 at time of this posting) rather than laying a huge money line price. All three games in this 4-game series so far have been decided by 2 or more runs. The Angels blasted the White Sox last night and I expect a repeat of that in this afternoon affair. Chicago's Dylan Covey, from 2015 to 2017, went 0-6 with a 9.58 ERA in road games as teams hit .349 against him. This season hasn't been much better as he is 2-4 with a 6.06 ERA in road games. Look for Covey to get pounded here as the Angels bats are showing signs of a turnaround in recent games. Los Angeles has averaged scoring 7.5 runs per game their last 4 games. The White Sox, on the other hand, have been slumping at the plate on this road trip as they're averaging just 3.3 runs per game in the first 6 games of this 7-game trip. Their likely to struggle against Nick Tropeano as this will be his first start against them in 3 years. Tropeano, from 2015 to 2017, compiled a 2.58 ERA in his 8 day game appearances (7 starts). This season, though he is 1-3 with a modest 4.50 ERA in afternoon action, Tropeano is holding the opposition to a .184 batting average in 4 starts. Some guys fare better under the sun than under the lights and Tropeano is one of those guys. Look for that trend to continue here. Also, the White Sox are a horrific 11-35 in day games this season while the Angels are a superb 8-2 this season as a home favorite in a money line range of -175 to -250. As long-time followers know, I don't lay big prices but I certainly like the value (currently +110) by laying the 1.5 runs with LA on the run line in this one. 30 of the Angels last 38 games have been decided by 2 or more runs. 26 of Chicago's last 31 losses have come by 2 or more runs. 10* LOS ANGELES ANGELS Run Line -1.5 runs |
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07-26-18 | Diamondbacks v. Cubs OVER 9 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 4 h 2 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #901 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 2:20 ET - The wind will be blowing out to right field at Wrigley Field this afternoon and there are two right-handed starters on the mound that will contribute to some extra left-handed pop in the lineup from each of these two teams. In other words, you can expect some long balls to hit in this one. I am well aware of the fact that yesterday's game was a pitchers duel and that each of the first three games of this 4-game series have stayed under the total. The key here is that the pitching match-up Thursday afternoon is absolutely ripe for an over. The Diamondbacks Zack Godley has a 5.37 ERA in his 11 road starts this season. Also, in his 5 day game appearances (including 4 starts) this season, Godley has a 10.00 ERA and has been rocked at a .342 clip by opposing hitters! As for the Cubs Tyler Chatwood, he has more walks than strikeouts on the season. Of course that is never a good sign for a pitcher and this is particularly true when it is past the midway point of the season already! Chatwood's ERA is nearly two runs higher at home compared to on the road this season. Also, in his 3 prior seasons, his home ERA was 6.07 compared to just a 2.57 ERA on the road. Of course that had to do with pitching at hitter-friendly Coors Field but, keep in mind, Wrigley Field plays out as a hitter-friendly venue too when the weather is like it will be today in Chicago. Only 3 of Godley last 10 road starts have resulted in an under. Also, the over is 12-5 in Chatwood's last 17 starts and that includes a perfect 4-0 in his last 4 starts! The Cubs were 9-0 to the over in their 9 games prior to this series and that trending toward high-scoring games resumes this afternoon. 10* OVER the total in the Chicago Cubs game |
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07-25-18 | Twins v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 12-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #965 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota Twins @ 4:05 ET - The Blue Jays Sam Gaviglio is off of the longest start of his career. That certainly holds significance here as he threw over 100 pitches in that outing and Gaviglio has an ERA above 9.00 in his career when he is off of a start where he threw at least 100 pitches. The right-hander also has given up 4 homers in his 2 starts against the Twins in his career. As for Minnesota's Ervin Santana, he is making his season debut after a long stint on the disabled list recovering from thumb surgery. Not only will he be on a pitch count here, he is unlikely to be 100% right away in his first start of the season. Additionally, Santana has allowed 3 homers in his last 2 starts at the Rogers Centre. Only 4 of Gaviglio's 12 starts this season have resulted in an under and I look for that trend to continue here. Yesterday's game stayed under the total but Minny was previously 9-4 to the over in their 13 prior games. Also, the Twins faced a southpaw yesterday but the over is 8-2 in their last 10 games facing a right-handed starter. As for the Blue Jays, they were 6-3 to the over their last 9 games prior to yesterday's game finishing under the total. Look for the over trending to resume in a huge way giving the pitching match-up in this afternoon affair Wednesday. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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07-24-18 | Cardinals -111 v. Reds | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #905 Tuesday 10* Top Play St Louis Cardinals Money Line -110 @ Cincinnati Reds @ 7:10 ET - The Cardinals blew last night's game in the bottom of the 9th and that ruined a dominating performance by Daniel Poncedeleon in his MLB debut. Look for the fired up Cards to get payback tonight. St Louis will take advantage of facing Homer Bailey in this one. The veteran right-hander is coming off of the disabled list and his numbers in recent seasons show that he is a long way from his 2014 and prior form. From 2015 to 2017 Bailey was hit at a .320 clip and compiled a 6.39 ERA. This included him going 1-7 with an 8.01 ERA in his 11 home starts during this 3-year stretch. As for this season he is also getting hit hard. Bailey is 1-7 with a 6.68 ERA and opponents have hit .313 against him. The Reds are 6-19 (24%) in the 25 starts Bailey has made against the Cardinals in his career. This gives a huge edge to Austin Gomber as he makes his first ever MLB start in this one. The St Louis southpaw has held MLB hitters to a .239 batting average this season working out of the bullpen. He has been a starter throughout his minor league career and Gomber has a solid 41-23 record with a 2.92 ERA as his full career numbers in the minors. The Cardinals lefty has proven he deserves this opportunity and I like his chances against a Reds team that has scored a total of only 7 runs in their last 4 games. The Cards had averaged scoring 7 runs per game in their 6 games prior to getting shutdown last night. They are sure to bounce back against Bailey. Also, the Cardinals are 6-3 in road games with a posted total of 10 or 10.5 runs while Cincinnati is 6-16 in home games with a posted total of 10 or 10.5 runs. The Cards, despite yesterday's loss, are still 10-4 this season versus the Reds and that dominance resumes Tuesday. 10* ST LOUIS |
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07-23-18 | Diamondbacks v. Cubs OVER 9 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #959 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 8:05 ET - The Cubs are 17-6 against left-handed starters this season. However, I am going with the over rather than the Cubs in this match-up. That's because I certainly don't trust Chicago starter Luke Farrell. The right-hander struggled in his only start this season and gave up 3 earned runs in less than 3 innings in a late June outing. In his only MLB start last season he also struggled and gave up 5 earned runs in less than 3 innings of work. Farrell is facing a Diamondbacks team that got their sticks going again in their weekend series with the Rockies in Arizona as they averaged scoring 7 runs per game. The Cubs have certainly been red hot at the plate for an even longer stretch. The Cubs have scored an average of 6.4 runs per game their last 9 games and all 9 of those went over the total. The Cubs rank 5th out of all 30 MLB teams for batting average versus left-handed pitching. Look for Chicago to give the Dbacks Pat Corbin some trouble here. The Arizona southpaw gave up 7 earned runs in just 3 innings in his last start at Wrigley Field. We're getting line value because the wind will be blowing in off of the lake at the old ball park this afternoon. The wind will be light and, based on this pitching match-up, I expect plenty of runs from both clubs in this one. Corbin has a 5.23 ERA in his last two starts on the road and the over is 19-10 in Diamondbacks road games with a money line range between -125 and +125 this season. Also, the over is 9-2 in Arizona's Monday games this season and the Cubs over streak appears destined for 10 in a row! 10* OVER the total in the Chicago Cubs game |
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07-22-18 | Indians v. Rangers OVER 11 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 48 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #919 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Indians @ 3:05 ET - The Indians Mike Clevinger has allowed 28 hits in the 23 innings spanning his last 4 starts. The Cleveland right-hander has a 6.00 ERA in his last 3 starts overall. The over is 4-1 in Clevinger's last 5 starts versus AL West opponents. The over is 7-1 in the Indians last 8 games versus teams with a losing record. The first two games of this series have each totaled at least 17 runs and it looks like another wild one can be expected Sunday with Yovani Gallardo getting the start for the Rangers. All 5 of his starts have gone over the total this season and he has a 6.75 ERA on the season. Keep in mind, Gallardo truly hasn't enjoyed success at the MLB level since the 2015 season. He is facing the wrong team at the wrong time too. The over is 7-1-1 in the Indians' last 9 games thanks in part to a Tribe offense that has averaged scoring 8 runs per game during this hot streak! The over is 10-5 in Indians Sunday games this season. The over is a long-term 22-14 when the Rangers are home dog in a money line range of +125 to +175. While it is true that this is the biggest total on the board Sunday, it is also true that both of these starting pitchers are likely to get rocked and the Rangers bullpen has been struggling and the Indians bullpen has been one of the worst in MLB this season. Currently Cleveland's bullpen has a 5.26 ERA on the season which ranks them 29th out of 30 teams! 10* OVER the total in Texas |
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07-21-18 | Astros v. Angels OVER 8 | Top | 7-0 | Loss | -118 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #971 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros @ 7:15 ET - Yesterday's game ended up a low-scoring pitchers duel. However, there is reason to believe both of these starters get a little roughed up on Saturday afternoon. This game starts at 4:15 local time and the wind (although not strong) will be blowing out toward center field. The point being the ball does carry better in day games in Anaheim and the weather is favorable for it Saturday afternoon with very warm weather in the forecast. Though Justin Verlander has great history versus the Angels, he did get roughed up in his final start before the All Star break as he allowed 5 earned runs in 6 innings. That was the 3rd time in his last 5 starts that Verlander has allowed 4 earned runs or more. The over is 6-2-1 in Verlander's last 9 starts. The over is 4-0-1 in Nick Tropeano's last 5 starts. The Angels right-hander has a 10.00 ERA in his last two starts and has been rocked for 20 hits in the 14 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts. Tropeano has a 6.97 ERA in his last two starts against the Astros and Houston was on a 5-1 run to the over before yesterday's low-scoring win. Tropeano had been on the DL due inflammation in his throwing shoulder. He'll be rusty here, Verlander's recent trend of giving up big hits will continue, and this one should fly over the total on a hitter-friendly afternoon in Anaheim. 10* OVER the total in the Los Angeles Angels game |
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07-21-18 | Red Sox v. Tigers OVER 9.5 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #967 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red Sox @ 6:10 ET - After yesterday's 1-0 pitchers duel most will be enticed to take the under 9.5 in this one Saturday but the pitching match-up should prove to be absolutely perfect for a slugfest here. The Tigers, overall, are certainly not a great team but they are hitting .268 versus left-handed pitching this season and that ranks them among the top five teams in the majors against southpaw hurlers. The Red Sox are starting lefty Brian Johnson here and he gave up 3 earned runs on 8 hits (including 2 homers) in just 4 and 1/3 innings when he faced Detroit last season. The Tigers counter with Michael Fiers in this one. I am well aware of the fact that he has had some success versus Boston in the past. However, this Red Sox team was scoring an average of 6.6 runs per game in the month of July prior to yesterday's 1-0 win. Also, even including yesterday's lackluster performance at the plate, the BoSox are hitting .295 in the month of July which ranks them #1 in the AL. In June, Boston ranked #2 in the AL for batting average and in May their .481 slugging percentage ranked them #2 out of all 30 MLB teams. The point is that a bounce back is likely after scoring just 1 run yesterday. The Red Sox have now stayed under in 3 straight games but only 3 times this entire season have they had an "under" streak go more than 3 games. This streak gets snapped Saturday! Fiers final start before the All Star break saw him allow "only" 3 earned runs against the Astros but they got to him for 9 hits in 6 innings and he struck out only 2. He won't be fooling the bats of Boston either! 10* OVER the total in Detroit |
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07-21-18 | Winnipeg -117 v. Toronto | Top | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 89 h 6 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Game #375 Saturday 10* Top Play Winnipeg Blue Bombers (-) @ Toronto Argonauts @ 4 ET - The Blue Bombers are fired up off of last week's loss at BC as they blew a 17-0 lead by allowing 20 points unanswered. Even though Toronto put up some big yardage last week that came against an Edmonton pass defense which has been an issue this season. The Argos won't find as many openings against Winnipeg and the Blue Bombers are going to be ready to go in a big way here after truly blowing last week's game against the Lions. Winnipeg has covered 4 of its last 5 meetings with Toronto. Also, the Blue Bombers are 10-1 ATS the last 11 times they were coming off of a game where they failed to get the cash. These teams meet again next week at Winnipeg so there certainly is no lookahead for the Blue Bombers here. Considering that factor plus last week's loss plus the fact that the West has dominated the East in recent seasons and you have all the right ingredients for a road rout here. That said, this line is offering a great bargain that has me elevating to top play status. 10* WINNIPEG |
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07-20-18 | BC v. Ottawa OVER 53 | Top | 25-29 | Win | 100 | 69 h 42 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach CFL Game #373 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Ottawa Redblacks vs BC Lions @ 7:30 ET - The Redblacks overall season numbers don't look that great but they had to play undefeated Calgary twice and the Stampeders are playing the best football of any team in the CFL so far this season. In their two games NOT against Calgary this season, Ottawa has averaged scoring 34 points per game. In other words don't be surprised if the Redblacks put up plenty of points here against a BC team that was the worst team in the West last season and is likely to finish in that final spot again this season. However, part of the reason I like the over here is that the Lions rattled off 20 straight points to rally for the win versus Winnipeg last week. Not only is that the type of win that builds confidence for an offense, it also can leave a defense a little flat in the the next game. With BC off of an upset win and Ottawa ready to take out their frustration against anybody but Calgary, this game will surprise some people and turn into a shootout as the over improves to 6-2 in the Lions last 8 games! Lulay had a huge game for BC last week and threw for over 300 yards. Redblacks QB Harris has been bad versus the Stampeders but great in the other two games! More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Ottawa |
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07-20-18 | Mets +170 v. Yankees | Top | 7-5 | Win | 170 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #925 Friday 10* Top Play New York Mets Money Line (+) @ New York Yankees @ 7:05 ET - The Mets Noah Syndergaard rates a huge edge on the mound over the Yankees Domingo German. Syndergaard is 5-1 with a 2.97 ERA this season while German is 2-4 with a 5.97 ERA on the year. The Yankees German allowed 6 earned runs in 4 innings in his most recent start. Although that one was on the road, note that he allowed 3 earned runs on 6 hits and 3 walks in 4 and 1/3 innings in his most recent home start. As for Syndergaard, he is a strikeout pitcher and that is the type of pitcher known to give the slugging Yankees problems. The Yanks haven't seen him since 3 years ago while the Mets just faced German a month ago. This is certainly an edge for the Mets hitters over the Yankees hitters. As a result of the Mets having a bad first half of the season while the Yankees were solid, the markets jumped all over the Yanks when they opened up in the -130 range as a small home favorite in this one. The line has been driven up all morning long and there is now superb line value on the big dog Mets who rate a massive starting pitching edge here. The Yankees are a mediocre 10-8 their last 18 starts. The Mets are off of a loss but had gone 7-6 their past 13 games. The point is that, while that may not be all that impressive, keep in mind we're getting a huge plus money payback in this one plus have the pitching edge. The Yankees are only 5-5 in German's last 10 starts while the Mets are 8-4 in Syndergaard's dozen starts this season. Also, in road games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs, the Mets are 9-5 (+$6,000) this season! The Yankees are 33-38 (-$15,500) in Friday games since the start of the 2016 season. 10* NEW YORK METS |
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07-20-18 | Orioles v. Blue Jays OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #913 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7:05 ET - Dylan Bundy has struggled since returning from the disabled list. The Baltimore right-hander has gone 0-2 with 11 runs (10 earned) given up in 7 and 1/3 innings and he has walked as many as he has struck out in those two outings. The Blue Jays Sam Gaviglio has also struggled in back to back starts as he has been rocked for 7 earned runs in 5 innings spanning his last two outings. The Orioles have been hitting a little better of late and they have scored at least 4 runs in 6 of their last 10 games. The Blue Jays have scored 4 or more runs in 6 of their last 9 games. Keep in mind a 4-4 game guarantees us of no less than a 5-4 final and that equates to a winner with the low total posted on this game. Yes Manny Machado is now a Dodger and not an Oriole but this lineup still has some pop. This is particularly true against a struggling pitcher like Gaviglio. The over is 4-2 in Gaviglio's starts where he is opposed by a right-handed starter this season. The over is 13-7 in Baltimore's road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs this season. The Orioles bullpen is getting hit at a .269 clip this season which ranks them 28th in the majors and the Blue Jays (.254) rank 22nd out of the 30 teams. In other words, both bullpens are susceptible in this match-up too. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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07-15-18 | Cubs v. Padres OVER 8 | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
1st Half Game of the Year (pre-All Star break GOY) - Rickenbach MLB Game #911 Sunday 10* OVER the total in San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs @ 4:10 ET - Yesterday's game flew over the total as the Cubs won 11-6. Chicago is now 3-0 to the over in their last 3 games. The Cubs are also 3-0 to the over in Jon Lester's last 3 starts. The southpaw has not looked quite as sharp in recent starts as he has nearly as many walks as strikeouts in his last two outings. Also, Lester has given up 15 hits in 11 and 1/3 innings in his last two starts while allowing 8 runs (6 earned) in those two outings. In home games with a total of 8 or 8.5 runs, the Padres are 13-7 to the over this season. Also, when the Padres are on a losing streak of 3 or more games, the over is 7-3 this season! I know that Eric Lauer has a low ERA in recent starts. However, his full season numbers do tell more of a complete story on him and also he had been hit hard in each of his past two outings before the surprising success versus the Dodgers in his most recent start. Lauer had allowed 16 hits in the 10 innings spanning his two prior starts and both of those outings went over the total. Lauer has a 1.64 WHIP on the season so it is not as if he is a dominant starter and today he is facing a solid Cubs lineup! Chicago has averaged nearly 7 runs per game in their 8 July wins as they've won 8 of 11 games this month. The Padres have scored 4 or more runs in 6 of their last 10 games and they hit two homers off of Lester in his most recent start against them. The ball does carry better in day games compared to night games at Petco Field and I love the value here with the low total. 10* OVER the total in San Diego |
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07-15-18 | Royals v. White Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-10 | Win | 100 | 6 h 48 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #923 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals @ 2:10 ET - After Friday's game totaled 15 runs, yesterday's game ended up being a surprising 5-0 shutout win for Kansas City. Prior to that under, the Royals had gone 8-2 to the over their previous 10 games. The White Sox, prior to that shutout loss, had gone 16-6 to the over their last 22 games. The Royals Burch Smith got rocked for 4 earned runs in just 3 and 1/3 innings in his most recent start and the KC right-hander will be facing a Chicago team that was averaging scoring 5.4 runs per game in the month of July prior to yesterday's loss. As for the White Sox starter, Lucas Giolito, he is also likely to get roughed up here. Giolioto has an 8.65 ERA in his 9 home starts this season. Also, the Royals will be seeing him for the 3rd time already this season and this is a big edge for them here. The over is 6-2 in Chicago's last 8 games versus a right-handed starter and these two bullpens are also two of the worst in baseball with Kansas City's ERA actually ranking the Royals dead last in the majors for bullpen ERA. Both bullpens could certainly be called into play early here as Giolito has averaged only 5 and 1/2 innings per start his last 9 starts and the Royals Smith is unlikely to work deep here given his struggles at the MLB level as a starter (2013 too when most recently used in that role). In fact, KC is calling this a bullpen day as Smith is also working on short rest here. 10* OVER the total in the Chicago White Sox game |
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07-14-18 | Winnipeg v. BC +4.5 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 15 h 2 m | Show |
Canadian Connection - Rickenbach CFL Game #366 Saturday 10* Top Play BC Lions (+) vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 10 ET - The Lions got thoroughly embarrassed last week in a 41-19 loss at Winnipeg. Look for BC to make up for that ugly defeat here at home this week. The Lions had won 3 of their 4 prior meetings with the Blue Bombers previous to last week's ugly loss. Payback time here. From a situational perspective this spot favors BC in a big way. Not only are they getting a shot at quick revenge (after last week's ugly loss), the Lions also have a non-conference match-up on deck. Although the Blue Bombers also have a match-up with an Eastern Conference foe on deck, their game is against the defending Grey Cup champion Argonauts. Look for Saturday's game to prove to be one of those where one team simply wants it more. Yes, Winnipeg is the better overall team but the situational aspect of this one is likely to leave the Blue Bombers a little flat while BC comes in fired up and hungry. Long-term the Lions are a fantastic 56-33 ATS when they are an underdog in a range of 3.5 to 9.5 points and they get the job done again here. 10* BC Lions |
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07-14-18 | Yankees v. Indians OVER 9 | Top | 5-4 | Push | 0 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #973 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Indians vs New York Yankees @ 7:15 ET - Yesterday's game went over the total and the over is now 7-0 this season in Indians home games with a money line between -125 and +125 this season. Overall, on the season, Cleveland's home games are 32-14 to the over. Additionally, the Indians are 11-1 to the over in home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs this season. Cleveland starter Mike Clevinger has been getting hit harder of late as he has allowed 21 hits in the 17 innings spanning his last 3 starts. Also, he allowed 5 earned runs in his most recent start. The over is 6-2-1 in Clevinger's home starts this season and he does have a higher ERA at home compared to on the road this season. As for CC Sabathia, the Yankees left-hander allowed 5 earned runs in his most recent start too. Like Clevinger, he has been getting hit harder of late. Sabathia has allowed 37 hits in his last 31 innings. Look for the over to improve to 10-5 in Yankees Saturday games this season. The Indians last 5 games overall have all gone over the total and this one does too! 10* OVER the total in Cleveland |
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07-14-18 | Reds +134 v. Cardinals | Top | 8-2 | Win | 134 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #955 Saturday 10* Top Play Cincinnati Reds Money Line (+) @ St Louis Cardinals @ 4:10 ET - The Reds blasted the Cardinals 9-1 yesterday so many will be looking for a bounce back here from St Louis but Cincinnati is currently the better team with the better lineup also. In terms of the pitching match-up, the Reds also have the better starter on the mound with Luis Castillo going up against a struggling Jack Flaherty for the Cardinals. With yesterday's big win Cincinnati is 20-9 their last 29 games! St Louis is an ugly 11-17 their last 28 games. This is clearly a case of two teams going opposite directions right now but market perception is still siding with the Cardinals here which is why we get great underdog value in a spot like this. Although Castillo lost to St Louis in his most recent match-up versus the Cardinals, he struck out 10 while allowing only 4 hits in 6 innings! The problem for Castillo was that he allowed big hits in that game but you can see that he did enjoy quite a lot of success in that start but was victimized by a couple of mistake pitches. As for the Cards Flaherty, he has a 7.11 ERA in his two career starts versus the Reds and he also is on the "fade" of late after pitching a little "over his head" earlier this season. The point is that Flaherty is not as good as his full season numbers show and Castillo is much better than his full season numbers show. At the same time we have the much hotter team and the much hotter lineup. Note too that Flaherty has a 7.30 ERA in his last 3 starts. 10* CINCINNATI |
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07-13-18 | Toronto v. Edmonton -9.5 | Top | 15-16 | Loss | -105 | 45 h 36 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFL Game #363 Friday 10* Top Play Edmonton Eskimos vs Toronto Argonauts @ 9 ET - The Eskimos will be in a foul mood after they let last week's game get away from them. Certainly some credit is due to the Argonauts for getting the "close out" score on that game but the fact is Edmonton put up a ton of yardage in the game. The Eskimos just didn't finish their drives and so they ended up short on the scoreboard. Look for them to make up for that here. Not only will Edmonton take advantage of being back at home this week, they also have a bye week on deck so they can go "all out here" and I don't foresee them taking their foot off the gas after what happened last week against this same Toronto team. The Eskimos had won 4 of their last 5 meetings with the Argonauts before last week's loss. At home Edmonton has won 6 of the last 7 meetings SU. Now, of course, the number here is a sizable one so the Eskimos don't just need a SU win, they need a blowout. But that is precisely what I feel occurs here as Edmonton has revenge and has a bye week on deck. The D will be fired up after giving up the late score last week and the offense will be too after they scored far too few points last week considering the way they moved the ball down the field all game long. That means both units for the Eskimos are bringing their "A game" this week. The Argos are just 8-17 ATS in non-conference games and 10-17 ATS last 27 times they've been an underdog. In other words, blowout time here! 10* EDMONTON |
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07-13-18 | Reds v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | Top | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #909 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in St Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds @ 8:15 ET - Both teams were off yesterday. The Reds are 14-3-2 to the over their last 19 games! Cincinnati is averaging scoring 6.6 runs per game their past 11 games. The Cardinals are off of a shutout loss Wednesday but they entered that game having gone 7-3 to the over in their 10 prior games. St Louis had averaged scoring 6.3 runs per game in that 10-game stretch. Friday marks the 15th time this season the Cardinals are playing after a day off and so far only 5 of these spots have stayed under the total. The Reds are 30-18 to the over this season when off of a loss. Also, Cincinnati is on a 7-1 run to the over when they're facing a team with a winning record. The Reds hand the ball to Matt Harvey for this one and though he allowed only 2 earned runs in his most recent start he did give up 9 hits in less than 6 innings of work and the road hasn't been kind to Harvey this season. On enemy mounds this season, Harvey is 1-4 with a 5.21 ERA on the year. The Cincinnati right-hander faced the Cardinals last month and allowed 5 earned runs in 6 innings thanks in large part to allowing 3 homers in that one. He'll be opposed by Carlos Martinez Friday. The St Louis right-hander allowed 5 earned runs in less than 4 innings in his most recent start versus the Reds and that was just last month. Martinez has walked 14 in less than 17 innings of work in his last 3 starts versus Cincinnati. Only 2 of his 8 home starts this season have resulted in an under as he has received great run support in home games and that should certainly continue here. 10* OVER the total in St Louis |
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07-12-18 | Phillies -101 v. Orioles | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
Money Line Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #969 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) @ Baltimore Orioles @ 6:05 ET - Starting pitchers have so much focus on them in terms of setting MLB lines and the way betting markets react, that this can actually work to a sharp players advantage in certain situations and this is one of those spots! The Phillies, of course, are the much better team in comparison with the Orioles and yet they are in a "pick 'em" price range here. The reason for that is because of Kevin Gausman having earned far more respect than Nick Pivetta this season. In theory, the line here makes sense but, at the same time, a closer look shows you why there is so much value going with the perceived weaker pitcher in a match-up like this. For one thing, Pivetta pitched at Baltimore in May and allowed only 1 earned run on 2 hits while striking out 11 in 7 innings of stellar work! Both of these teams are off of shutout losses yesterday but that was the 10th time in 14 games that the Orioles have been held to 2 runs or less! As for the Phillies, they had won 8 of their 10 prior games and averaged scoring 5 runs per game in their 11 games previous to yesterday's extra-inning shutout at the hands of the Mets in New York. Also, though Pivetta's last two starts have been rough and short, he previously had pitched quite well over his 8 prior starts. As for the O's Gausman, he has given up 36 hits in the 32 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 5 home starts. The Phillies can do some damage here while I expect the Orioles struggles at the plate to continue. Keep in mind, Baltimore is known for a "free-swinging" lineup and Pivetta does pile up a lot of strikeouts. Also, the Orioles are 1-9 in Gausman's last 10 starts! Baltimore is also 15-47 against right-handed starters this season while the Phils are 40-30 versus right-handed pitching on the season. Also, the Phillies are 26-14 this season when off of a loss. The Orioles are 1-7 this season after getting shutout. You can see which team is more likely to bounce back here! 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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07-12-18 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -120 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #951 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 3:10 ET - With Robbie Ray having strong numbers on the season and Kyle Freeland having strong numbers at home this season, this total is being kept lower than it should be. Although the wind will be blowing in this afternoon it won't be a strong wind and, keep in mind, the ball carries even better in afternoon games than it does at night. The hitter-friendly nature of Coors Field helped produce 21 runs and that was the 2nd time in 4 games that the Diamondbacks have been involved in a game that produced more than 20 runs. Both of these teams hit lefties well and this afternoon game is a match-up of southpaws. In the National League, only the Braves have a higher slugging percentage versus left-handers than the Rockies and Diamondbacks do. Also, Arizona's Ray comes into this game having allowed 5 homers in his last 2 starts and he has compiled a 9.64 ERA in those two starts. As for Freeland, though his recent numbers are strong, the Diamondbacks lineup is known for giving him some trouble and they just faced him a month ago, In his last 3 starts versus Arizona, Freeland has a 6.23 ERA and a 1.77 WHIP. As you can see, allowing nearly 2 base runners per inning in his last 3 starts versus the Diamondbacks he is actually fortunate the damage hasn't been even worse. I suspect the damage will be worse today! In road games where their money line is between -125 and +125, Arizona is 19-7 to the over this season. 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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07-11-18 | Rangers v. Red Sox OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #919 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Texas Rangers @ 7:10 ET - I know it seems tough to take an over with Chris Sale on the mound but the Red Sox have been giving him plenty of run support. Each of his last two starts have gone over the total as Boston has averaged scoring 10.5 runs per game. Also, the Red Sox enter this game absolutely red hot at the plate. The over is 7-3 in Boston's last 10 games as they've averaged scoring 7.5 runs per game. Even though Sale has been fantastic on the mound, this will be the 2nd time in a span of two months and the last time he hosted the Rangers at Fenway Park he allowed 4 runs (3 earned). Texas scored 4 runs last night and they've averaged scoring 5.2 runs per game their last 23 games! Of course the key to this play is the Rangers Bartolo Colon getting rocked and I have little doubt about that! Though he held the Red Sox to 4 earned runs in his early May start against Boston, all 4 runs came via the long ball! Yes Colon allowed 4 homers in that game and now he faces the powerful (and red hot) BoSox lineup at Fenway Park! This could get ugly in a hurry and I expect it to fly over the total early as a result. Colon has allowed 22 homers in his 16 starts this season and, even off of a solid road start against a poor Tigers team at Detroit, he has compiled a 7.24 ERA in his last 5 road starts! Look for the over to improve to 5-1 in the last 6 games the Red Sox have played against teams with a losing record. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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07-11-18 | Cubs v. Giants OVER 7.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #903 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Francisco Giants vs Chicago Cubs @ 3:45 ET - This total has dropped from an 8.5 to a 7.5 and this is offering huge value on the over. The drop is understood because the Giants Johnny Cueto has great full season numbers and so too does Mike Montgomery. Also, these teams have scored a total of only 5 runs in the first two games of this series. That said, the move on this total does make perfect sense. However, the reason it does not make sense is absolutely why I am all "over" the "over" at AT & T Park this afternoon. The ball does tend to carry better in afternoon games in San Francisco and temperatures will warm to near 70 degrees and the wind will be blowing out a good clip. Additionally, Cueto is still unproven since his time on the disabled list. He made one start (last week) and he allowed 5 earned runs on 10 hits (including 2 homers) in just 5 innings of work! As for Montgomery, he is in poor current form. The Cubs southpaw has a 1.63 WHIP and a 5.62 ERA in his last 3 starts! The over is 2-1 in Montgomery's last 3 starts and the over is 3-0 in Cueto's 3 home starts this season! The over is 16-10 this season in San Francisco's home games where their money line is in a range of -125 to +125. The Giants are also 10-4 to the over this season in Wednesday games. 10* OVER the total in San Francisco |
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07-10-18 | Royals v. Twins OVER 9.5 | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
TV Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #969 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals @ 8:10 ET - Yesterday's game stayed well under the total but the Royals were 7-3 to the over in their 10 prior games. Kansas City hasn't recorded back to back unders since two weeks ago. The Twins bullpen and the Royals bullpen are ranked as the two worst in the majors in terms of opponents batting average. KC's relievers are also ranked dead last for bullpen ERA on the year. Both bullpens could certainly be called upon early here. The Royals Ian Kennedy averages just 5 and 1/3 inning per start and he has allowed 5 homers in his last 3 starts. He also has allowed 4 homers in his last 3 starts versus the Twins even though these 3 outings saw him compile a total of only 10 and 2/3 innings! As for Aaron Slegers, his first start of this season was a good one but it came against the free-swinging Orioles and yet he still recorded only 2 strikeouts. I am well aware of the fact that the Royals, of course, fall into the same class of team as Baltimore. However, the point is that Slegers one start against a bad O's team does not mean he has "arrived". In his few MLB appearances (6 games with 4 starts included) he has a 4.73 ERA. In the minors this season he has been hit a .260 clip and last season he was hit at .266 clip. With these types of numbers in the minors it would not surprise to see him get hit at a .300 clip in the majors. In other words, Slegers one good start (in my book) is a bit of a fluke. Long-term the over is 100-69 in Twins games versus teams with a losing record and both lineups get back on track after yesterday's pitchers' duel. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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07-10-18 | Rangers v. Red Sox -1.5 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 102 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
Run Line Rout - Rickenbach MLB Game #966 Tuesday 10* Top Play Boston Red Sox Money Line -1.5 runs vs Texas Rangers @ 7:10 ET - The Red Sox rolled 5-0 last night as the Rangers struggles continue. Texas has lost 6 of its last 8 games and they've scored an average of only 1.5 runs per game their last 4 games! Boston, on the other hand, is rolling and has won 7 straight and 14 of their last 17 games! The Red Sox have averaged scoring 7 runs per game their last 13 games! Boston is using Hector Velazquez for a spot start here. Though he is mostly used as a long reliever, Velazquez has been solid nonetheless in his MLB career as this is his 2nd season and so far he has compiled a 9-1 record with a 2.82 ERA in the majors. Texas is not familiar with him and is likely to struggle. Speaking of struggles, the Rangers Yovani Gallardo has incredibly gone 3-0 as a starter for Texas even though he has a 5.87 ERA in his 4 starts. Keep in mind he has not had an ERA below 5.42 since the 2015 season! Gallardo has a 2.13 WHIP in his last two starts versus the Red Sox as both walks and hits allowed have been an issue. This one has the makings of a complete mismatch on the mound and we can get a great number on this game by laying the 1.5 runs with Boston on the run line. The Red Sox last 37 victories have featured 34 wins by 2 or more runs. In other words, when they win they almost always win by a multiple run margin. As for the Rangers, only 10 of their 52 losses this season have been one-run defeats. Great odds on a home blowout here! 10* BOSTON Run Line -1.5 runs |
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07-09-18 | Phillies -1.5 v. Mets | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
Run Line Rout - Rickenbach MLB Game #903 Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 runs -110 @ New York Mets @ 7:40 ET (Game 2 of double header) - This should be a dominating road win for the Phillies but, of course, I am not going to lay nearly 2 to 1 odds on the money line. The value here is on the run line where we get the Phillies at a pick'em price in a game that should prove to be a complete mismatch. Note that the Mets are 0-8 this season in home games where they are an underdog in a range of +125 to +175. Overall at home this season, New York enters Monday with one of the worst records in MLB at 15-28 on the year. The Phillies Aaron Nola has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season and Philadelphia has won each of his last 5 starts and 12 of his last 14 overall. In terms of "comfort level" with laying the 1.5 runs with the Phillies here, note that 16 of the Mets last 17 losses have come by a margin of 2 runs or more. While Nola has been dominant this season, a struggling Corey Oswalt gets the start for the Mets here. The young right-hander has a 10.79 ERA in his two starts this season and 2018 is the first year that Oswalt has pitched any higher than the AA level in the minors. The fact is that it has not gone well. Even at AAA Las Vegas, Oswalt has compiled a 5.32 ERA in his 10 starts. He'll be in trouble here trying to match Nola in putting up zeros on the scoreboard. 10* PHILADELPHIA Run Line -1.5 runs (Game 2 of double header) |
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07-08-18 | Dodgers v. Angels OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -113 | 23 h 13 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #979 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Angels vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:05 ET - The over is 10-4-1 in the last 15 starts that the Dodgers Alex Wood has made. Though he has pitched quite well of late he has allowed 8 earned runs in his last 8 innings on the road which spanned two starts. Of course that did include a trip to Coors Field but also note that Wood has given up 23 hits in the 20 innings spanning his last 4 road starts. The point is that, overall, the Dodgers lefty has been quite hittable on the road. As for the Angels Andrew Heaney, he is off of a strong start at Seattle. However, in the left-hander's 4 prior starts he did compile a 6.33 ERA. Heaney had allowed 5 earned runs or more in 3 of his prior 6 starts. In his most recent start against the Dodgers, the Angels lefty was reached for 5 earned runs in 5 innings. Entering Saturday's game, the Dodgers were 4-1 in their last 5 games thanks to production on offense averaging 7.8 runs per game. That production keyed a 4-1 run to the over for the Dodgers. Regardless of Saturday's final outcome, note that the Dodgers are 3-1 to the over in their last 4 games against a left-handed starter. Additionally, the Angels entered Saturday's afternoon game having trended under of late but the Halos slugging percentage in night games this season does rank them in the upper half of the majors. The Dodgers slugging percentage in night games ranks them 2nd in the National League. This is a contrarian play but it is not without good reason and I expect plenty will be surprised at the struggles of both Wood and Heaney in this one. 10* OVER the total in Los Angeles Angels |
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07-08-18 | Rangers v. Tigers OVER 9 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -111 | 16 h 22 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #967 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Tigers vs Texas Rangers @ 1:10 ET - Regular followers know I had the over (also 9 runs) in this match-up yesterday. Unbelievably the game ended up only being able to manage a push even though 7 runs were scored in the 1st inning. What made this even more frustrating is that there were numerous opportunities all game long! One look at some final statistics tells you just how numerous those opportunities were! The teams combined to leave 19 men on base and, in terms of clutch hitting, note that the teams combined to go a miserable 3 for 26 with runners in scoring position. That my friends is how a game that should have easily gone over the total somehow manages not to. It barely even got the push as the run that was needed finally came in the top of the 9th inning. I am thankful we didn't get "totally" burned which we would have if we didn't get that push but the fact remains yesterday's game should have finished with about 15 runs! Funny things tend to happen after a game like that and I fully expect the lineups to make up for yesterday's shortcomings in Sunday's early action. The Rangers Austin Bibens-Dirkx has had decent starts versus the light-hitting Padres and Royals recently but his other 3 starts this season have seen him allow 13 earned runs on 26 hits in 17 innings of work! Tigers starter Michael Fulmer has allowed 5 earned runs in each of his last two starts versus Texas and he averaged just 5 and 1/3 innings in those 2 starts. Also, Detroit is 0-3 in his last 3 starts and he has a mediocre 4.58 ERA in those outings. 10* OVER the total in Detroit |
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07-07-18 | Edmonton -3 v. Toronto | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFL Game #355 Saturday 10* Top Play Edmonton Eskimos (-) @ Toronto Argonauts @ 5:30 ET - The Argonauts are off of their bye week while the Eskimos are off of a rather satisfying blowout win over the Lions. As a result, 0-2 Toronto is getting a lot of respect from the betting markets here and this line has been coming down all week on road favorite Edmonton. The fact is that it was practically a miracle that the Argos won the Grey Cup last year and they are still being held up too high in the eyes of the markets. Yes, they are at home and rested and hungry but they're just not a very good football team. Even last year when they won it all, the Argonauts went only 3-7 in the regular season in games against the West Division. The West is simply superior to the East and it has been this way for multiple seasons now. As for the Eskimos, they went 7-1 in regular season games against the East Division. So here we have a team in an 88% winning spot laying just 3 points against a team in a 30% winning spot. I'll gladly take advantage of the line movement here and lay the small number with the road favorite. The Eskimos are 10-6 SU and ATS in games where their line ranges from -3 to +3. As for Toronto, they are 6-10 SU and 5-11 ATS with those same parameters. Also, just because the Argonauts have lost 2 in a row it does not mean they're going to bounce back. In fact, the Argos are 4-8 SU and 3-9 ATS the last dozen times they've entered a game on a losing streak of 2 or more games! 10* EDMONTON |