Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-26-23 | SC Freiburg v. Backa Topola OVER 3 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 105 | 5 h 60 m | Show |
Rotation #224553: Europa League | Group Stage: Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 3 +105 in Backa Topola vs Freiburg @ 12:45 ET - Backa Topola has trouble at this level in terms of goals conceded but that has not stopped them from putting up a fight on the attacking side of things. The Serbian club is at home for this one and they have scored 4 goals in their last 3 matches in Europa League or Champions League Qualifying action. The trouble is they have allowed an average of 3 goals per match in their last 4 matches in these competitions as well. They are a huge home dog here for a reason and I am envisioning a 3-1 type match here. Freiburg hails from the high-scoring Bundesliga and will take advantage of facing a weaker backline here. The two matches for Freiburg in Europa League competition have averaged 4 goals apiece. Of course we do not want a push here at 3 goals and I am expecting 4 or more goals to be scored in this one. However, I will mention that 6 of Freiburg's last 8 matches have totaled at least 3 goals and those 6 matches averaged 4 goals apiece. Look for this one to get to the 4-goal mark as well. 10* OVER 3 +105 in Backa Topola |
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10-25-23 | Mavs -4 v. Spurs | Top | 126-119 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play Dallas Mavericks -4 @ San Antonio Spurs @ 9:40 ET - Of course there is a ton of hype about the Spurs and their new big man Victor Wembanyama but he is a rookie and will have some growing pains. Additionally, Spurs coach Popovich has had a remarkable career and I have plenty of respect for him but he should have hung it up a few years ago. San Antonio will again struggle this season and not get out of the 20s in win total this season. Conversely, Dallas off a disappointing campaign but had been flying quite high prior to this and I am expecting a big bounce back year for them. They look positively re-tooled and I like this Mavs team to be very hungry early this season after the disappointment of the way last season ended. That said, covering a small number on the road against a hated division rival set for another down campaign should not be a problem. We lay it here with plenty of confidence and I look for the the Mavericks to pull away as the game goes on. The Spurs may ride some early emotion but that will take them only so far here as reality sets in as the game goes on. 10* DALLAS -4 |
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10-25-23 | UTEP v. Sam Houston State -3.5 | Top | 37-34 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
CFB Wednesday 10* Top Play Sam Houston State Bearkats (-) vs UTEP Miners @ 8 ET - Well I am not too happy this line is up as high as a 3.5 as of early gameday morning. However, the Bearcats are absolutely the play here and should finally get that solid win they have been longing for all season long. Sam Houston is new to FBS action and they also remain the only FBS school in the nation without a SU victory yet this season. So why are the 0-7 Bearkats favored here? Exactly! Do not let the line fool you here. UTEP is a very bad team. Sam Houston has deserved better. Also, the Bearkats have the better overall defense. I know the Kats offense has struggled this season but they have been better statistically in their last 4 games and this will be their breakthrough game. The Miners are struggling and off a 28-7 loss last week. I went against them then with New Mexico State and I will do the same here! You might think UTEP should bounce back off such an ugly low-scoring loss but the trending actually shows otherwise. The Miners are actually just 1-10 ATS the last 11 times they have been a road dog and coming off a game in which they were held to single digits in scoring! Overall, in weekday road games, even though they won in that role at FIU a few weeks ago, UTEP is still just 2-9 ATS last 11 weekday road games. The Bearkats win big in this one and finally break into the win column! 10* SAM HOUSTON STATE (-) |
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10-25-23 | Capitals v. Devils OVER 6.5 | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
NHL Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 6.5 -130 in New Jersey Devils vs Washington Capitals @ 7:37 ET - The Capitals have not been scoring much this season but they deserved much more than 1 goal on the scoreboard yesterday as they fired 37 shots on goal. That said, I feel certain they will make up for it here. Also, the Devils are off a big 5-2 win yesterday and should stay hot at home. Of course these B2B spots tend to be tough on goalie situations and that can also help add value to an over in a spot like this. That said, no hesitation in laying the small price to have the over at 6.5 goals. The Capitals are allowing about 4 goals per game this season Devils all 5 games this season have totaled at least 7 goals and they had allowed an average of 3.5 goals per game before allowing just 2 goals yesterday. The goals should fly in this one given all of the above. 10* OVER 6.5 -130 in New Jersey |
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10-25-23 | Borussia Dortmund v. Newcastle United OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -135 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
Rotation #224385: Champions League | Group Stage: Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 -135 in Newcastle United vs Borussia Dortmund @ 3 ET - Newcastle is on a 5-0-1 run as they are undefeated last 6 matches and have scored an average of 3.5 goals per match. Borussia Dortmund is helping to keep this total lower because they have not scored in their first two Champions League competitions in this stage. However, they averaged scoring 3 goals per match in their other 16 matches over the past 3 and 1/2 months. Remember they were one of the highest scoring clubs in the Bundesliga last season too. Plus Newcastle United scores so well at home. I just can not see this match ending with anything less than 2-1 final. We take advantage of the line value here with some 2.5 available on this one. 10* OVER 2.5 -135 in Newcastle United |
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10-25-23 | Lazio v. Feyenoord OVER 3 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 115 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
Rotation #224365: Champions League | Group Stage: Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 3 +115 in Feyenoord vs Lazio @ 12:45 ET - Feyenoord will have their key attacker on the pitch for this one as Santiago Jimenez is good to go! The hosts are also favored for a reason yet it is hard to imagine Lazio not scoring here as well. That is why I foresee at least a 2-1 final here but certainly expect much more. Lazio has scored at least 1 goal in 8 of last 9 and also has scored 2 or more goals in 4 of last 5 including 3 straight! Feyenoord has been on a major scoring spree and is averaging 3.5 goals scored per match last 10 matches! Those matches have averaged 4.5 goals apiece and I am looking for 4 to 5 goals here. 10* OVER 3 +115 in Feyenoord |
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10-24-23 | Flyers +1.5 v. Golden Knights | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
NHL Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Flyers Puck Line +1.5 -135 @ Vegas Golden Knights @ 11 PM ET - The Flyers are off an OT loss at Dallas and there is no shame in that. The fact is Philly has been a pleasant surprise early this season. I had a feeling coming into the year that having Briere in the front office and Keith Jones in a hockey operations role and another season in the Tortorella system was going to get this Flyers team going. They will not be great this season but the point is they are improving and they are competitive and that is why they are already 3-1-1 on the season and actually at the top of the Metro Division. This team is already starting to believe in itself and they can give Vegas all they can handle here. I am not saying they win outright, though this would not shock me. What I am saying though is this game could ultimately be decided by just a 1-goal margin. Vegas has allowed 3 goals in each of the last 2 wins and they never should have won the game before that either - it was a fortunate SO win for the Golden Knights in which they rallied late. Don't be surprised when this one also goes to the wire. 10* PHILADELPHIA FLYERS +1.5 -135 |
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10-24-23 | Suns +1.5 v. Warriors | Top | 108-104 | Win | 100 | 15 h 44 m | Show |
NBA Tuesday 10* Top Play Phoenix Suns (+) @ Golden State Warriors @ 10 ET - The line is as high as +1.5 on the Suns here but some books even have the Suns as a 1 point favorite in this one as of early gameday morning. Essentially this line is in the pick'em range. This sets up perfectly for me as a contrarian play and I love contrarian plays in the NBA. Last season Golden State was 33-8 at home while the Suns were 17-24 on the road. You think the odds makers are unaware of this home/road dichotomy? Of course not. That said, this line has been set this way with good reason and Phoenix is projected to be the stronger team this season and I am going to ride them right away here in Game 1 of the new season as they get the road win against this over-rated Warriors bunch. Look for the absence of Draymond Green to hurt Golden State as they sure could use his defense in a match-up like this. 10* PHOENIX (+) |
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10-24-23 | Seattle Kraken v. Red Wings -118 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -118 | 8 h 55 m | Show |
NHL Tuesday 10* Top Play Detroit Red Wings -120 vs Seattle Kraken @ 8:15 ET - The Red Wings have won 5 straight games and have been extremely impressive as all 5 wins have come by multi-goal margins and the average margin has been 3 goals apiece. This is a classic case of hot versus not as the Kraken are struggling early this season. I was really surprised Seattle was as successful as they were last season and think their early season struggles are a reality check plus a sign of things to come this season. The Kraken have lost 5 of 6 games and been held to 1 goal or less in all 5 of those losses. This is a bargain line based on last season's versions of these teams. The Wings are improved and the Kraken have declined. 10* DETROIT -120 |
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10-24-23 | Liberty v. Western Kentucky +5.5 | Top | 42-29 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
CFB Tuesday 10* Top Play Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (+) vs Liberty Flames @ 7:30 ET - Something fishy here with this line. It opened even lower than the current number which, as of early gameday morning, is in the 5.5 range. Love the home dog value here. Liberty is undefeated on the season but they just allowed 35 points last week and have played a very weak schedule. This could be the week the Flames finally lose but, even if the Hilltoppers fall short, I expect them to do enough for the ATS win. The key here is that Western Kentucky is only 4-3 on the season but their overall season stats are impacted by a blowout loss to Ohio State. Note that their other two defeats, including one last week at Jacksonville State, have each come by just a field goal. That said, Western Kentucky is a tougher opponent than one might think from just looking at their record and comparing it to Liberty here. In their most recent weekday home game, the Toppers blew out MTSU by a 31-10 count. That brings their current run to 7-0 ATS in weekday home games! Look for that ATS streak to reach 8 in a row here. 10* WESTERN KENTUCKY (+) |
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10-24-23 | Hurricanes v. Lightning OVER 6.5 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
NHL Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 6.5 in Tampa Bay Lightning vs Carolina Hurricanes @ 7 ET - The over is perfect in Hurricanes games this season and the games are crushing the posted totals. The Lightning are not far behind as all but one of their games has gone over the total. The Hurricanes are not getting the typical goaltending they are use to and the same holds true for the Lightning with Vasilevskiy out. Also, these are two very potent teams in terms of high-scoring attacks and so we should see plenty of goals in this one! 10* OVER 6.5 in Tampa Bay |
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10-24-23 | FC Copenhagen v. Manchester United OVER 3 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
Rotation #224349: Champions League | Group Stage: Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 3 +100 in Manchester United vs FC Copenhagen @ 3 ET - The last 2 matches for Manchester United in Champions League Group Stage action have totaled 5 and 7 goals, respectively. It is hard not to like the over in this one with numbers like that! Manchester United, in their matches across all competitions, continues to have some inconsistent play defensively but they remain dangerous on the attack as per usual. Man U has scored an average of 2 goals per match last 10 matches. 8 of those 10 matches totaled at least 3 goals. Those 8 averaged 4 goals apiece and I am looking for a 3-1 type match here. Man U is favored by 1.5 goals on the goal line for a reason but I do not see FC Copenhagen being blanked here. Man U has allowed an average of 2 goals per match last 11 matches. FC Copenhagen has both scored and conceded in 6 of last 7 matches. 10* OVER 3 +100 in Manchester United |
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10-24-23 | Bayern Munich v. Galatasaray OVER 3.5 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 110 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
Rotation #224329: Champions League | Group Stage: Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 3.5 +110 in Galatasaray vs Bayern Munich @ 12:45 ET - Match after match Galatasaray is scoring goals like crazy. 11 of last 12 matches across all competitions Galatasaray has scored at least 2 goals. They also have proven to be comeback kids in recent matches and that has given this club extra confidence and they will have some success on the attack here on their home pitch against Bayern Munich. However, the visitors have a stellar attack of their own as well. Bayern Munich has scored at least 2 goals in 13 of last 14 matches and has averaged scoring 3 goals per match during this stretch. Look for a 3-2 type final here. 10* OVER 3.5 +110 in Galatasaray |
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10-23-23 | 49ers -6.5 v. Vikings | Top | 17-22 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
NFL Monday 10* Top Play San Francisco 49ers (-) @ Minnesota Vikings @ 8:15 ET - Generally speaking I like playing strong teams off losses and fading mediocre or bad teams off wins. That said, this one already sets up perfectly with the Niners off their first loss of the season in an upset defeat at Cleveland plus the Vikes off the divisional win over the Bears last week. The big key though that has me pulling the trigger with a top play here is that there also is strong historical ATS data that adds to the strength factor here. In other words, we have a good situation already as we know we have the better team angry off a loss and we are fading a team off a key win that also has, by the way, alternated ATS wins and losses all season long. However, what really strengthens this one is the fact that the Vikings have failed to cover 8 in a row when they are a dog on Monday Night Football. Also, San Francisco has covered 11 times in a row when they are off an outright upset loss as a road favorite and now facing a team that is off a SU win. The 49ers also have covered 6 straight times when they are on the road on Monday night. As the saying goes, good teams win but great teams cover and I like taking a good team when the are in a spot when they should bring their top effort. That usually ends up being one of their games with a great result! In other words, I am happy to test the triple perfect ATS angles here and we'll lay the points which is currently less than 7 at 6.5 in some spots as of early gameday morning! 10* SAN FRANCISCO (-) |
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10-23-23 | Canadiens v. Sabres OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
NHL Monday 10* Top Play OVER 6.5 in Montreal Canadiens vs Buffalo Sabres @ 7:05 ET - Both teams off wins Saturday that stayed under the total. However, part of the reason those games were low-scoring is because Montreal hosted a Capitals team that has major issues in the goal-scoring department right now and Buffalo hosted an Islanders team that, other than one exception, has trended toward low-scoring games this season. Now the Sabres and Canadiens are each facing more of an attack-minded foe here and I expect the goals to come in well in this one. Buffalo had started slow this season but they have now won 2 of 3 and scored 3 goals in all 3 games. Montreal was allowing an average of 4 goals per game before their low-scoring win over the punch-less Caps. They are averaging 3 goals scored per game this season and I am looking for, per all of the above, each team to get to the 3-goal mark here and that would guarantee us nothing less than a 4-3 final. 10* OVER 6.5 in Montreal |
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10-23-23 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
MLB Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 +115 vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 5:07 ET - The money line for this one is just a little too high for me from a risk standpoint. I look for the Phillies to close out this series with a win here and will turn to the run line for the better value in this one. Here is the key in regards to this...the Phillies last 9 wins have all come by at least a 2-run margin and that includes all 8 in this post-season. Also, those 9 wins have come by an average margin of 5 runs per game and there is nothing average about that! Certainly I have respect for the Dbacks Kelly but the Phillies got to him for 3 homers in the first meeting in this series and they are so strong here at home. Nola gets the start for Philadelphia here and has been vintage Nola in this post-season. He has held opponents to a .182 batting average and has not allowed any homers in his 18.2 innings in this post-season. The Diamondbacks have not a had one-run loss on the road since early August! So, again, if you like the Phillies to win here at home you can rest a little easier in terms of laying the run line when you consider numbers like this. Arizona's last 16 road losses have all come by a multi-run margin! Hats off to the Dbacks for those wins in Game 3 and Game 4 at home but then losing Game 5 at home completely reversed all that momentum and Philly will be rocking tonight for this one. The Phillies also have the post-season experience edge and appear destined to get back to the World Series. How confident can we be in that assessment? Well the Phillies are now a PERFECT 11-0 in home games against NL teams the past two post-seasons. 10 of those 11 have come by at least a 2-run margin including all 6 in this post-season! Look for this home team multi-run win streak to reach a perfect 7-0 in this post-season right here for the Phillies. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 +115 |
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10-23-23 | Fulham v. Tottenham Hotspur OVER 3 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -119 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
Rotation #200005: English Premier League: Monday 10* Top Play OVER 3 -125 in Tottenham vs Fulham @ 3 ET - Tottenham is out for revenge. They were knocked out of the EFL Cup by Fulham in a match that ended 1-1 and was decided on penalty kicks. Fulham prevailed and this was just 2 months ago so Tottenham certainly has not forgotten. Now these clubs meeting Premier League action and this is a different kettle of fish for Fulham to deal with. I look for Tottenham to dominate in this one and the odds makers are certainly calling for that with this goal line as high as -1.5 goals on the Hotspur. The fact is that Tottenham is off to a great start in league action and they are highly motivated to continue it here. Fulham is scoring an average of 1 goal per match this season plus they are allowing 2 goals per match when on the road. Tottenham is allowing 1 goal per match this season on average but also averaging 2 goals per match and the Hotspur had scored an average of 3 goals in their last 4 matches before the tight 1-0 win at Luton Town. Their attacking prowess will be back on full display in this one I am sure! 10* OVER 3 -125 in Tottenham |
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10-23-23 | Otelul v. CFR Cluj OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -111 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
Rotation #206869: Romania Liga 1: Monday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 in CFR Cluj vs Otelul Galati @ 2 PM ET - CFR Cluj is a massive favorite here including laying two goals on the goal line! That said, if the oddsmakers are right about this line and we expect Galati to score at least one goal, then we are talking about a match that should end at least 3-1. We only need 3 goals to be a winner here and I like our chances! Galati has scored at least 1 goal in 6 of last 8 matches. They have averaged 1 goal per stretch during this stretch. CFR Cluj is one of the highest scoring clubs in the league and is averaging 2 goals scored per match on the season. Combining that with the fact that they are at home angry off a draw and facing one of the weaker clubs in the league means we should see plenty of scoring from CFR Cluj. I would not be surprised if they get this total over all by themselves. Either way, absolutely expecting 3 or more goals here given the situation. 10* OVER 2.5 in CFR Cluj |
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10-23-23 | Botosani v. Sepsi OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
Rotation #206865: Romania Liga 1: Monday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 in Sepsi vs Botosani @ 11 AM ET - These two clubs are struggling badly but Sepsi is finally back on their home pitch and their most recent match here saw 7 goals scored. Also, they have scored in all 6 of their home matches this season. Botosani is off a 1-0 loss but this was preceded by them both scoring and conceding in 5 straight matches! Those 5 matches averaged 4 goals apiece! The last time these clubs met here Sepsi won 7 to 0. Both clubs are desperate for a victory here. There is reason to believe, per the above, that we will see each club score and then when you factor in the push for a victory because of both clubs in desperate need of a win, I can not see this match ending with anything less than 2-1. 10* OVER 2.5 in Sepsi |
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10-22-23 | Dolphins v. Eagles -2.5 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Philadelphia Eagles (-) vs Miami Dolphins @ 8:20 ET - This is a great spot for a play on the Eagles at a bargain price. As of early gameday morning the line on this one is -2.5 or -3 and Philly is at home here. Their last 4 games were against teams that all now have reached 3 wins on the season. What does that matter here? Well, the Dolphins have 4 games this season against teams that are now a combined 3-21 SU on the season! That is not a mistype. 4 teams now sitting all at 1-5 SU or worse on the season. Miami has faced two teams with a pulse. They allowed 34 points and 48 points in those 2 games. One was a 2-point win and the other was a 28-point loss. I am not sold on this Miami team just yet. I am sold on grabbing the Eagles off a loss when they are coming off a Super Bowl season and have faced the tougher schedule than their opponent and are at home and laying only a field goal. This is a great value. Philly has the much better defense in this match-up. They also are at home and they are coming off a loss. I do not see them losing two straight in a situation like this and their offense is also statistically better than their point total shows. That said, they are capable of trading scores with this high-powered Dolphins team. However, I do think their defense will get enough stops to slow this game down and not let Miami get the kind of game they want this to be. 10* PHILADELPHIA (-) |
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10-22-23 | Rangers +104 v. Astros | Top | 9-2 | Win | 104 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
MLB Sunday 10* Top Play Texas Rangers Money Line +105 @ Houston Astros @ 8:03 ET - For those of you that like playing trends or streaks, the crazy fact is that the road team has won all 5 of these games. The Rangers should be rejoicing in the fact that the series returns to Houston. All kidding aside, the road team "advantage" likely to continue here because I love this pitching match-up too. Just look at the stats on these guys. Eovaldi is 3-0 with a 2.29 ERA in the post-season. Valdez is 0-2 with an 11.57 ERA in the post-season! Not only that, the Rangers are a perfect 6-0 in this post-season in road games! The Astros won their very first game of the post-season at home but, since then, the road team is a perfect 8-0 in Astros games! Look for that streak to reach 9-0 here as the Rangers get it done behind a strong start from Eovaldi and they pound Valdez. The latter has allowed 18 earned runs in his last 16 and 1/3 innings! The former has dominated in all 3 of his post-season outings and appears to be "in the zone" and pitching with a ton of confidence. The road team domination continues in this series and we'll see you for Game 7 tomorrow! 10* TEXAS +105 |
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10-22-23 | Flames -139 v. Red Wings | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -139 | 4 h 54 m | Show |
NHL Sunday 10* Top Play Calgary Flames Money Line -140 @ Detroit Red Wings @ 5 ET - Nice set up here with Detroit in the 2nd game of B2B while Calgary has been off since Friday. Also, the Saturday game for Red Wings was a win but they were outshot 37 to 23. The Friday game for the Flames was a loss but they outshot Columbus in that game 37 to 29. Give me the rested Flames here and angry off a loss. Note that Detroit is off to a hot start this season but this is their first tough B2B spot and the road team is favored over a Red Wings team that has won 4 straight and is at home absolutely for a reason! 10* CALGARY -140 |
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10-22-23 | Steelers v. Rams -3 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Rams (-) vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 4:05 ET - There is much more than a revenge angle to this game but first off it is worth noting the last meeting between these teams ultimately cost the Rams a playoff spot. The coaches were the same and Sean McVay will be out for payback over Mike Tomlin in this one. Prior to last season's surprising disappointment for the Rams after winning the Super Bowl the year before, the Rams had only missed the playoffs one time after McVay's rookie season with the team. The year was 2019 and the Rams lost as a favorite in a game that would have improved them to 6-3 on the season had they won. LA never lost another game they were favored in the rest of the way but ultimately ended the season 9-7 and needing that 10th win for a playoff spot. The Rams ended the 2019 season as the only NFC team with a winning record to NOT make the post-season. Losing that game to the Steelers (you need to win the games you are favored in) ultimately proved to be the difference! The set up entering this one is great because the Steelers, though off a bye week, got an upset win over the Ravens the week before. Los Angeles is a PERFECT 7-0 ATS the last 7 times when they are favored by less than 7 points and facing a team that is off an outright upset winner as an underdog! The Rams are catching the Steelers off a key divisional upset win and the timing is perfect for LA to take that run to 8-0 ATS! I am looking for a blowout home win here and taking advantage of the line value. The Steelers have won games with smoke and mirrors this season. They rank horribly from a yardage perspective both on offense and defense this season! It is truly a miracle that they have a winning record this season. We take advantage with exceptional line value here as the Rams have faced a very tough schedule with games against the NFC best 49ers and Eagles already this season and yet LA has survived to at least be 3-3 so far this season and that is despite a 1-2 record in home games because of having faced Philly and SF here. I feel the Rams are a bit under-rated right now as a result and, also, this Steelers team is absolutely over-rated right now! We take advantage. Lay the points (currently -3 as of early game day morning) with the home team in this one. The Steelers have won the recent meetings between these teams but McVay and Company get revenge for the most recent one right here right now with a dominating win. 10* LOS ANGELES RAMS (-) |
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10-22-23 | Voluntari v. Steaua Bucharesti OVER 2.75 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -116 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
Rotation #206861: Romania Liga 1: Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 -145 in FCSB vs FC Voluntari @ 2 ET - This total is set at 2.5 goals with a high price on the over with good reason. FCSB is a huge favorite here and should get the solid victory in this one but FC Voluntari continues to get involved in high-scoring games this season and I can not see them being shutdown completely here! FCSB is off a 1-0 win but this followed a stretch in which each of their 3 matches totaled at least 4 goals! Also, each club has scored at least 1 goal in each of the last 3 meetings between these nearby rivals (Voluntari is essentially a suburb of Bucuresti) and 3 of their last 4 meetings have totaled at least 3 goals. FCSB is at the top of the table thanks in large part to scoring an average of 2 goals per match on the season. FC Voluntari is near the bottom of the table because they are allowing an average of 2 goals per match on the season! But, the visitors can score well too and yet they are off shocking B2B 0-0 draws. They will bounce back on the attack here but FCSB will be relentless on the attack too because their most recent home match was a draw AND their most recent match hosting FC Voluntari was also a draw. As a result, even with a lead here, the hosts are going to keep the pressure on the attack throughout this match. 10* OVER 2.5 -145 in FCSB |
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10-22-23 | Browns v. Colts OVER 41 | Top | 39-38 | Win | 100 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Indianapolis Colts vs Cleveland Browns @ 1 ET - Watch the Browns defense soften up after facing a very tough 49ers team last week and notching an upset win. On the other side of the ball, Cleveland could get a boost with the return of QB Watson. Either way, I expect the Browns offense to enjoy a lot more success this week as they go from facing a league-best Niners defense to facing one of the league's lesser defensive units as they take on the Colts this week. However, even with a bad defense the news is not all bad in Indy this week. The Colts offense will again be led by QB Minshew and I expect them to again move the ball well this week but avoid the turnovers that plagued them against Jacksonville last week. Minshew has a history of this. He'll have an ugly game with turnovers and then follow it up with a solid effort. I think he and the Colts are catching the Browns in the perfect spot to get back on track. Cleveland's defense ranks high and that is what is keeping this total low but the Browns D likely to be a bit flat after the upset win over San Francisco. Also, in a bit of a scheduling quirk, Cleveland has had only one road game this season prior to this week and we are now in late October! The Browns defense tends not to travel and they have allowed 24 points on average in last 10 games away from home. So if the odds makers are correct with their point spread here - as they so often are - that would put this game in the 28-24 range if Browns allow their typical road average. That is double digits above the current posted total on this one in the 40.5 to 41 range as of early game day morning! I love the value here considering the situation. 10* OVER the total in Indianapolis |
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10-22-23 | West Ham United v. Aston Villa OVER 3 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 20 m | Show |
Rotation #200001: English Premier League: Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 -175 or 3 -110 in Aston Villa vs West Ham United @ 11:30 AM ET - These 2 clubs have been scoring plenty. Aston Villa on a long scoring streak particularly in home matches while West Ham United continues to be goal-happy across all competitions. That said, I am looking for a wild one here in the lone Sunday Premier League match-up. West Ham has a great history here with having gone 3-0 in the last 3 here and overall they have scored an average of 2.2 goals in the last 5 meetings with Aston Villa no matter the venue. That said, they will be confident here but Aston Villa has been strong on their home pitch and this is why I would not be surprised to see a 2-2 type match in this one! Aston Villa has scored 13 goals in their 3 home matches in league action this season! West Ham United is scoring an average of 2 goals in their EPL matches this season! Overall, across all competitions, 11 of West Ham's last 14 have totaled at least 3 goals! Those matches have averaged 4 goals apiece and that is what I am forecasting here as well! 10* OVER 2.5 -175 or 3 -110 in Aston Villa |
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10-22-23 | Petrolul 52 v. CS U Craiova OVER 2.5 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 22 m | Show |
Rotation #206857: Romania Liga 1: Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 -115 in Universitatea Craiova vs Petrolul Ploiesti @ 11 AM ET - This total is set at 2.5 goals even though Petrolul Ploiesti has played 3 straight 0-0 draws! Must be some kind of mistake, right? Of course, long-time followers know how I feel about supposed oddsmakers "mistakes". The fact is that Universitatea Craiova is a big money line favorite here for a reason and I am also sure that Petrolul Ploiesti is going to break through and finally get back on track in the goal-scoring department here. The visitor is fully focused on that while the home favorite is ready for a blowout win after they, ironically, are also off a scoreless draw. Universitatea Craiova had seen, before that 0-0 final, 5 of last 7 matches total at least 3 goals and those 7 matches averaged 3.5 goals apiece. Look for at least a 2-1 final which, by the way, was also the final score the last time these clubs met here. More of the same in this one. 10* OVER 2.5 -115 in Universitatea Craiova |
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10-21-23 | Phillies -121 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
MLB Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -120 @ Arizona Diamondbacks @ 8:05 ET - The Phillies and Diamondbacks are now knotted up in this series. This is a critical Game 5 and I like the fact Wheeler outdueled Gallen in Game 1 and is certainly capable of the same here. Wheeler dominated in road games this season. Also, the Phillies, despite B2B losses, are still 8-3 last 11 games and the 3 losses were ALL one-run losses while the 8 wins were by a combined score of 51 to 9. That is an average score of 6 to 1 and that compares to a 4-3 average score in their 3 losses. The point is that the Phillies very easily could have won all 11 of these games and I fully expect a bounce back here. Arizona is just 7-6 last 13 games dating back to regular season and they scored an average of just 1 run per game in those 6 losses. The Dbacks are a quality team that deserves to be here for sure. But the point of all the above is that the Phillies still rate a notch above them. Also, in a critical Game 5 like this, that post-season experience Philly got last season really helps them. You saw the Astros make it 3-2 in their series yesterday and I expect the Phillies to do the same here as the post-season pressure experience from last season pays off. Looks like we could be headed toward an Astros-Phillies rematch. But, first things first, the Phillies must win here or they are really up against it even though the series shifts back to Philly after this. Wheeler and Co get it done here! 10* PHILADELPHIA -120 |
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10-21-23 | Utah +7 v. USC | Top | 34-32 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Utah Utes (+) @ USC Trojans @ 8 ET - Now the Trojans are sure to bounce back, right? After all, they were on a huge roll before getting destroyed by Notre Dame last week. However, there is a key to that hot run they were on! USC played 4 teams that currently have a combined record of 5-20 SU on the season! Surely the Trojans must have faced some tough teams before the Fighting Irish though, right? Nope! They barely hung on to beat Colorado by 7 and the Buffaloes have been proven to be a fraud and have one of the worst defenses in the league and they are very weak in the trenches. The other match-up in the Trojans 6-0 start was a 3-OT win over Arizona and the Wildcats are nothing special this season. So the point is USC had not really been challenged until they faced Notre Dame and we all saw how that went. Now they face a Utah team that is tough in the trenches and is willing to punch teams in the mouth. That is part of the reason the Utes got the wins over Southern Cal last season too. They are a scrappy, hard-nosed, well-coached team and they are catching a full TD in this match-up because QB is the high-profile position everyone pays attention to. Keep in mind, the Utes QB played well last week and we saw the Trojans QB struggle as he finally faced a tougher team and threw 3 interceptions. Based on the line movement in this one, everyone is backing the revenge-minded Trojans and the line is now up to a 7 as of early gameday morning. I love fading the popular choices and will gladly grab the gritty Utes here who just have to play a clean football game without a bunch of turnovers and they could even get the upset here. Either way I certainly like this tough defense at a full +7 and feel the Trojans could be suffering a case of unbeaten letdown this week! 10* UTAH (+) |
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10-21-23 | Islanders v. Sabres OVER 6.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 60 m | Show |
NHL Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 6.5 in Buffalo Sabres vs New York Islanders @ 7:07 ET - This is a great spot for an over. Islanders are in a B2B spot and off a 5-4 loss in the shootout! Now, because of the B2B, they will use a goalie that has not even played yet this season. Also, because of injury, the Sabres are in the same boat and starting a goalie that has not played yet this season! It is expected to be Varlamov for the Islanders and Comrie for the Sabres. Note that the Sabres lost the first meeting between these teams this season and they are out for revenge here plus at home plus catching the Islanders in a B2B. When you consider all those key facts, Buffalo is absolutely going to push the pace here. They are hungry for a home win after a slow start to the season but pushing hard up the ice could open up the opportunity for the Islanders to counter the other way with some breakaway chances. I am looking for an entertaining affair as both clubs well aware of the fact they are facing a goalie that has not played yet this season and they need to test the netminder early and often in this one. 10* OVER 6.5 in Buffalo |
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10-21-23 | Toronto v. Saskatchewan +9.5 | Top | 29-26 | Win | 100 | 5 h 9 m | Show |
CFL Saturday 10* Top Play Saskatchewan Roughriders +9.5 vs Toronto Argonauts @ 4 ET - Certainly it has been a rough run for the Roughriders but they need this game to keep their playoff hopes alive and force Calgary to win next week's game. That said, I am not saying they will win this week's game but I am saying Saskatchewan will at least keep this a one score game. This game means nothing for the Argonauts. They have already wrapped up the East division. Sure they want to stay tuned up for the post-season but they also do not want to risk injury here either. I would not be surprised to see quite a few back ups for the Argos in this one. That said, there is a ton of value here with the Riders as a home dog catching nearly a dozen points. Of course if you look at YTD records and YTD stats this line seems about right. But again, this one is all about the situation! The Argos will struggle to win this game, let alone cover, against a very determined home side that is playing for their post-season life here! 10* SASKATCHEWAN +9.5 |
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10-21-23 | Oklahoma State v. West Virginia OVER 48 | Top | 48-34 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in West Virginia Mountaineers vs Oklahoma State Cowboys @ 3:30 ET - We have seen this total drop from the low 50s to as low as 48 in some spots now as of early gameday morning. The last 4 meetings between these teams have all been unders too. That said, as long-time followers know, I am a contrarian and I love fading trends like this when the situation is right and the line value is there. Certainly in this case all the key factors are lining up well! The Mountaineers are off a heartbreak miracle hail mary catch at Houston to lose to the Cougars 41 to 39 last week. How does a defense bounce back from that? They do not! As for the Cowboys, they gave up a pile of points last week too but got a morale-boosting 39 to 32 win and have won back to back games over Kansas and Kansas State. Oklahoma State has scored at least 27 points in 5 of their 6 games this season. If the odds makers are right about the number here, like they usually are, the Mountaineers win this game by about 3 points. That puts this one at 30-27 if the Cowboys just hit their typical minimum this season! That is nearly 10 points higher than the current posted total and I feel we have excellent line value here. The Cowboys offense is showing big improvement of late but their defense has been susceptible of late and the Mountaineers just threw for nearly 400 yards at Houston last week. I know the WVU defense has put up some good numbers in some games this season but last week's game against the Cougars a sign of things to come and OSU has revenge here for last season's home loss. The Cowboys lost their regular season home finale to the Mountaineers and they are use to dominating in this series so they have payback on their minds here in Morgantown. The way their defense is playing though they are going to have to rely on their offense in their payback quest in this one. That said, look for plenty of points in this one! 10* OVER the total in West Virginia |
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10-21-23 | Manchester United v. Sheffield United OVER 3 | Top | 2-1 | Push | 0 | 5 h 10 m | Show |
Rotation #200193: English Premier League: Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 3 -120 in Sheffield United vs Manchester United @ 3 ET - The last 4 meetings between these clubs have all totaled at least 3 goals and the 4 matches have averaged 4 goals apiece and I am expecting at least that here. Sheffield United is at home so they should at least be able to get on the scoresheet here. However, they are a massive underdog with good reason in this one. Sheffield has conceded goals like crazy in league action. In fact, in their last 7 league matches they have allowed an average of 3 goals per match! Man U has scored multiple goals in 3 of its last 4 matches across all competitions and they are in need of a break out game here. Even though they are off a win versus Brentford, they still have lost 2 of last 3 across all competitions. This can be a statement game for Man U coming off the international break and I expect them to view this match as such and issue a beatdown. That should coincide with this match being a blowout win! Also, Man U has no draws in 8 matches this season and Sheffield has just 1 draw in their 8 matches this season so you can see why I am anticipating at least a 2-1 final here but truly expecting much more as the hosts goal-conceded trouble continue here. 10* OVER 3 -120 in Sheffield United |
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10-21-23 | Universitatea Cluj v. Farul Constanta 1920 OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 37 m | Show |
Rotation #206849: Romania Liga 1: Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 +105 in Farul Constanta vs Universitatea Cluj @ 2:45 ET - Farul and Universitatea Cluj both off 1-0 wins. However, the winners in the last two meetings have each scored 2 goals and I do not see either club being shutdown here and that means at least a 2-1 final the way I see it. Farul is finally starting to play better and has won 3 straight matches and has scored an average of 1.7 goals per match during this stretch. Remember they are the defending champs and they are known for scoring better at home. Universitatea Cluj has scored at least 1 goal in 4 straight matches. There is a reason that, despite recent low-scoring trending in the league, this one is set at 2.5 goals. Look for 3 or more here. Strong reason to believe that each team gets to 1 goal here and then note that Farul has ZERO draws in their 11 matches this season! 2-1 at least here the way I see it. 10* OVER 2.5 +105 in Farul |
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10-21-23 | Arsenal v. Chelsea OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-2 | Win | 110 | 3 h 52 m | Show |
Rotation #200189: English Premier League: Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 +115 in Chelsea vs Arsenal @ 12:30 ET - Chelsea is finally getting things going. They have have won 3 straight matches overall and have scored an average of 3 goals in their last two EPL matches. Arsenal has scored at least 1 goal in 14 straight matches across all competitions and has averaged scoring 2 goals per match during this stretch. Also, 3 of the last 4 meetings between these clubs have totaled at least 4 goals and those 3 matches averaged 5 goals apiece! I would not be surprised to see at least a 2-2 match here the way these clubs are going but certainly we should see at least a 2-1 final. 10* OVER 2.5 +115 in Chelsea |
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10-21-23 | Penn State v. Ohio State -4.5 | Top | 12-20 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Ohio State Buckeyes (-) vs Penn State Nittany Lions @ Noon ET - The line opened at nearly a TD but is down to the 4.5 range and I love fading movement like this. The Nittany Lions are 6-0 SU and ATS this season while the Buckeyes are also 6-0 SU but do have some ATS losses and I like that factor here as I feel Penn State is a bit over-valued here. Both defenses have been great this season. However, there is a key here in that the Nittany Lions have not faced anyone in terms of a threat offensively. The 3 Big Ten teams they have faced are Illinois, Iowa and Northwestern. All 3 have been horrible on offense. In non-conference action, PSU has also faced some really bad teams offensively. At least Ohio State had to battle a strong Notre Dame team this season plus they did face a respectable offense in non-conference action when they took on Western Kentucky. The point is I feel the Buckeyes have the better defense and are more battle-tested no matter what the stats say. Also, OSU is at home for this one and their QB already engineered a key win over the Fighting Irish in a pressure-packed situation. Conversely, though Lions QB Allard has been great this season, this will be his first real test and he is on the road and his team is facing an opponent that has been dominating them in recent seasons. I look for another solid home win here as Penn State is getting close but they are just not quite there yet and they get exposed here and the Buckeyes pull away to win this game by double digits. 10* OHIO STATE (-) |
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10-20-23 | Calgary +8.5 v. BC | Top | 41-16 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
CFL Friday 10* Top Play Calgary Stampeders (+) @ BC Lions @ 10 ET - This game is much more important to Calgary - an 8.5 dog as of early game day morning - than it is to BC. Yes, the Lions still have some motivation to win but they know it is a longshot that they can catch Winnipeg for the top spot out West. That said, the Stampeders are going to be the more motivated team. With a win here they can still control their own destiny in terms of earning a post-season spot. The Stamps also have "triple revenge" here, if you will. Calgary has been hammered by BC in both regular season games this year plus they lost in the post-season to the Lions last year! This is a great spot for a respectable Stampeders team that is better than their record shows. Adding to the solid edges here is the fact that a key WR, Begelton, has been practicing all week and is expected to be back on the field for this one as well. When a team has a solid shot at an outright upset and is the more motivated team and yet they are an underdog by more than a 1-score margin, that is something worthy of elevating a play to a strong one every time. Now certainly this is not a trap line or phony line either because BC is at home and has the much better record and has dominated this series of late. So the odds makers have set the "right number" from that perspective but, from a situational perspective, the Stamps are the very strong value here the way I see it! 10* CALGARY (+) |
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10-20-23 | Phillies -124 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -124 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
MLB Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -125 @ Arizona Diamondbacks @ 8:07 ET - The Phillies bounce back here. This is a great value spot because they have one of their lesser known pitchers on the mound so it is keeping the price down on Philly. The fact is Christopher Sanchez has been quite well and yet he is flying under the radar right now. Also, the Diamondbacks are expected to use Mantiply as an opener and then go with Ryne Nelson to get the bulk of the work on the mound. The problem is Nelson may not last long and Mantiply is not expected to get much worth either. Both guys have struggled recently but the most important is the expected bulk innings guys just got rocked by the Phillies a few days ago. Coming into this series, and it is evident so far in this series as well, Philadelphia has the bullpen edge in this match-up. Now Arizona is going with a bullpen game here. This is an ideal set up for the Phillies bats to come right back to life after a surprisingly successful start from Pfaadt last night for the Dbacks. Lay the money line price here as it is a fair one and the Phillies have all the edges except for home field in this Game 4 match-up and I expect a big bounce back effort from the power-hitting Philly sticks in this one given the pitching situation for Arizona. 10* PHILADELPHIA -125 |
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10-20-23 | Flames -138 v. Blue Jackets | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -138 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
NHL Friday 10* Top Play Calgary Flames -140 @ Columbus Blue Jackets @ 7:07 ET - This is a great set up because even though Calgary is in a back to back they used Vladar between the pipes last night. Flames #1 goalie Markstrom will get the call tonight and he was on the wrong end of a 3-2 shootout decision in his most recent start. The Flames have won just 1 of his 3 starts but this Calgary team is much stronger than this Columbus team. The Blue Jackets are 1-2 this season but the two losses are by a combined score of 8 to 2 and their lone win was despite being outshot 42 to 21. The point is that this Columbus team could easily be 0-3 on the season and the odds certainly favor that they will be deservedly handled that 3rd loss right here. They just lost 4 to 0 to the Red Wings and already lost 4 to 2 to the Flyers and all their games have been at home this season too. That said, it is likely to be a long season for Columbus fans this go around and the Flames come into the building and get a big road win! Yes it is a -140 price range here but it is well worth it! 10* CALGARY -140 |
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10-20-23 | SMU v. Temple +24 | Top | 55-0 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
CFB Friday 10* Temple Owls (+) vs SMU Mustangs @ 7 ET - As of about 7 hours before kickoff the Owls are as much as a 24 point dog here. I waited for the line to jump because of the fact the Owls starting QB may not play again this week. The key difference though is last week it was announced 20 minutes prior to kickoff. This week the Owls have been preparing all week knowing that they may be going with the #2 guy. The back-up will be much better this week and we are getting a truckload of points to work with. Yes, the Mustangs are much better than the Owls but this is a rare standalone national TV game for Temple. This is the only thing going Friday night. In other words, these guys might be approaching this game as their super bowl when you consider how their season is going. Of course that does not mean they have the talent level to win this game but I do expect Temple to really step here and the Owls will keep this game a lot closer than most are expecting. Look for it to be decided by a 2-score margin as the Owls are not as bad as their record shows and will certainly be looking to put forward a strong effort at Lincoln Field in Philly. This is a rare primetime showcase for the Owls and they will make the most of it. SMU is the stronger team by far but the Mustangs also are on a 2-11 ATS run when playing the 2nd of B2B road conference games! That is not an easy thing to do and this their only such occurrence of that this season and we step in to take advantage! 10* TEMPLE (+) |
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10-20-23 | Granada v. Osasuna OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
Rotation #201977: Spanish La Liga: Friday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 in Osasuna vs Granada @ 3 ET - This is another match where you have a really struggling club, Granada, that does score well but simply can not stop anyone. That said, I feel we have excellent line value here with this total at just 2.5 goals! Note that only one club in the league has allowed more goals than Granada has so far this season. Also, Osasuna is at home and had a solid campaign last season but has struggled both continentally and domestically so far this season. That being said, I feel the hosts are absolutely going to take advantage of facing a suspect back line here and they will not hesitate to be aggressive on the attack here. Osasuna is off a 4-0 loss in most recent match and also off a 2-0 loss in most recent home match. They will be ready to respond on their home pitch here and get some scoring going but you can see why there is some concern in the goals conceded department for them of late. As for Granada, they have both scored and conceded in 6 of last 7 matches and those 6 matches have averaged a total of 5 goals apiece! We have excellent line value here. 10* OVER 2.5 in Osasuna |
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10-20-23 | SV Werder Bremen v. Borussia Dortmund OVER 3.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
Rotation #202453: German Bundesliga: Friday 10* Top Play OVER 3.5 in Borussia Dortmund vs SV Werder Bremen @ 2:30 ET - Borussia Dortmund is just so much stronger and, of course, they are a heavy favorite here with good reason! At the same time, Werder Bremen has been scoring very well but just can not stop anyone. That being said, I love the over in this match-up. Borussia Dortmund is forecast to win by 1.5 goals based on the posted goal line and I would not be surprised at all to see a 4-2 or 3-2 or at least 3-1 type match here. Note that Werder Bremen has seen their last 5 matches average 5 goals apiece and Borussia Dortmund has seen their last 2 matches in Bundesliga action also average 5 goals apiece. 10* OVER 3.5 in Borussia Dortmund |
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10-20-23 | Rapid Bucuresti v. UTA Arad OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-2 | Win | 101 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
Rotation #206841: Romania Liga 1: Friday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 +100 in UTA Arad vs Rapid Bucuresti @ 2 ET - None of the last 4 meetings between these teams have topped 2 goals. Scoring overall has been down in Romania Liga 1 action last couple weeks. Arad is off B2B scoreless draws! All of that said and the oddsmakers hung a 2.5 on this one. Something fishy, eh? Well actually you know what this means! This may seem contrarian all the way but I am known to be a contrarian and I love a spot like this for an over. Not only that, there is some support for it when you take a look at the visitors in this match-up! Rapid actually has seen 5 of last 7 matches not just go over the total but actually total at least 4 goals! They way Rapid is playing plus the fact UTA is at home for this one, I am looking for at least a 2-1 type of match here! Great value considering we do not have to lay juice here! 10* OVER 2.5 in UTA Arad |
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10-19-23 | Hurricanes v. Seattle Kraken OVER 6 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
NHL Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 6 in Seattle Kraken vs Carolina Hurricanes @ 10:07 ET - The Hurricanes are off a big 6-3 win at San Jose where they pulled away in the 3rd period. I keep thinking Carolina is going to get better goaltending but it just hasn't happened yet this season. It has surprised me so far as all 4 of their matches have totaled at least 9 goals! I look for the high-scoring trend to continue and feel we have excellent line value here with this total at 6 goals. The fact is Carolina has been so dangerous in the offensive zone but here they face a desperate Kraken team and the game is in Seattle. Note that the Kraken have allowed an average of 3 goals per game in regulation time of their first 4 games but have had trouble scoring goals. This is just their 2nd home game however and it comes after being held to 1 goal by the Avalanche. The Avs, however, have allowed just 4 goals TOTAL in 3 games this season! Conversely, the Canes have allowed 4 goals PER GAME this season so far. So this is a completely different situation and the Kraken are ready to get going on home ice. However, they will not be able to stop red hot Caroline either. As a result, this should be a high-scoring non-conference match-up where it would not surprise me to see each team get to the 3-goal mark and that would guarantee us of at least a 4-3 final here. 10* OVER 6 in Seattle |
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10-19-23 | Jaguars v. Saints -130 | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -130 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
NFL Thursday 10* Top Play New Orleans Saints (-) vs Jacksonville Jaguars @ 8:15 ET - This line, as of mid-morning game day, is mostly a -2 or you can look at about -130 on the money line. I definitely like the Saints in this spot a ton even with the line moving slightly toward them. For one thing there are questions about the health of Jaguars QB Lawrence entering this one. But, more importantly, this is a horrible scheduling spot for the Jags as they are now on short rest and this is after spending two weeks in London for multiple games there before coming back stateside for last week's game and now they have the short turnaround for the Thursday game and this one is on the road. Also, the Jags have been winning some games with "smoke and mirrors" the way I see it. A lot of favorable bounces have gone the way of Jacksonville and they have had some turnover-fueled wins. The Saints are a solid defensive team as the stats show and I feel we have excellent value with the much better defense at home and coming off a loss and facing a travel-weary foe in this one. 10* NEW ORLEANS (-) |
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10-19-23 | Rice +3.5 v. Tulsa | Top | 42-10 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
CFB Thursday 10* Top Play Rice Owls (+) @ Tulsa Golden Hurricane @ 7 ET - Current line 3.5 at time of posting late morning game day. Both teams are off a bye and both are off losses before their bye week. However, Rice actually had a huge yardage edge against Connecticut and that was a turnover-fueled loss that is helping to give us line value now this week. I say that because these Owls have been moving the ball quite well and getting decent QB play. The same can not be said for Tulsa and they also have some inconsistency issues at QB as well. I just can not trust the Golden Hurricane with the QB play they have been getting and also their 3 wins are against an FCS school and a pair of FBS schools that each have losing records this season. The Owls defense has improved some in recent weeks too. I know the Owls are still searching for their first road win but this looks like a great spot to get it and I definitely do not trust this Tulsa offense. It has not matter who is at QB for them. The Golden Hurricane had a blowout win over a bad Temple team and an FCS school but in their other 4 games against FBS foes this season, they have averaged just 16.5 ppg this season. The Owls also have more consistency in terms of their head coach in his 5th season here while Tulsa under a new coach this season. Grab the road dog here to get it done in this one. If they do fall short look for it to be a field goal at most and the current line on this as of late morning on game day is 3.5 points. 10* RICE (+) |
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10-19-23 | Phillies -116 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -116 | 6 h 25 m | Show |
MLB Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -120 @ Arizona Diamondbacks @ 5:07 ET - The Phillies have Suarez on the mound and he rates a big edge over Pfaadt! Not only that the Phillies are simply flying with confidence right now. The fans for this one, even though it is in Arizona, could actually feature a surprising amount of Philly fans as the Diamondbacks are simply not a big draw down there. The Phillies have been dominating and this is a tough spot for Pfaadt to face a power hitting lineup and Suarez was great late in the regular season especially and has been solid already in this post-season. He has really come through in the most pressure-filled portion of the season. So the Phillies also hold the pitching edge here too and that includes the bullpen edge as well. So look for Philadelphia's to continue their hot roll. The Phillies have won 8 of 9 games and 7 of 8 in this post-season. Their only loss was by 1 run in this post-season and their 7 wins have been by a combined score of 42 to 8. That is an average score of 6 to 1. The point is they are not just winning, they are dominating! They have been crushing teams and, having already beaten the Dbacks two best pitchers I do not see a problem with them beating Pfaadt in this match-up. That is not a knock against Pfaadt, that is just that the Phillies lineup has been too much and he is not quite ready for this stage. This Philly lineup is loaded with sluggers and Chase Field is also a hitter friendly back like Citizens Bank Park. The ball will be flying here and that favors the red hot Phillies sluggers. 10* PHILADELPHIA -120 |
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10-19-23 | Argentinos Juniors v. Gimnasia OVER 2 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 26 m | Show |
Rotation #208093: Argentine Copa de la Liga Profesional, Group Stage: Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 2 -110 in Gimnasia La Plata vs Argentinos Juniors @ 3 ET - Look for goals here. 4 of the last 5 meetings between these clubs have totaled at least 3 goals. Those 4 meetings have averaged 4.5 goals apiece! Of course we get a low total here because of recent trending for these clubs but they have proven when they meet that goals are on the agenda. Also, based on the current situation in the table this also will result in both clubs pushing hard for the full 3 points in the table. That means a 1-1 match should still end up finding its way to 2-1 here. Indeed, I am looking for a 2-1 final at least here. 6 straight Gimnasia La Plata matches in which they host have totaled at least 2 goals and these matches have actually averaged 3 goals apiece. Argentinos Juniors most recent road match was a scoreless draw but this followed 4 straight league matches in which they scored at least 1 goal and they averaged 1.5 goals in those 4 matches. Those 4 matches averaged 3 goals apiece and this one should get there as well. The total of 2 is a great value. 10* OVER 2 -110 in Gimnasia La Plata |
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10-19-23 | Sepsi v. CSMS Iasi OVER 2 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -130 | 5 h 40 m | Show |
Rotation #206837: Romania Liga 1: Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 2 -130 in Poli Iasi vs Sepsi @ 1 ET - The last 4 times these teams have met have all totaled at least 2 goals. The last 3 have all totaled at least 4 goals and actually averaged 5 goals apiece! 9 of 11 Poli Iasi matches have totaled at least 2 goals this season and those 9 matches have averaged 3 goals apiece. As for Sepsi, they have been struggling with a losing streak but also, prior to a 1-0 loss in their most recent match, their losses had been high-scoring. 4 straight losses all totaling at least 3 goals and those 4 matches averaged 4 goals apiece. With fresh legs too after the international break, I am expecting at least 3 goals in this one and also like the value of this one being available at 2 goals with higher juice in some spots. The total of 2 is a great value. 10* OVER 2 -130 in Poli Iasi |
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10-18-23 | New Mexico State -3 v. UTEP | Top | 28-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
CFB Wednesday 10* Top Play New Mexico State Aggies -3 @ UTEP Miners @ 9 ET - I know UTEP is coming off a win but that was against a bad FIU team. Also, the only other Miners win this season was against an FCS team. Since that win over Incarnate Word, UTEP had proceeded to lose 4 straight games and all the losses were by at least a 2 TD margin. The Miners coming off the win over the Panthers last week simply increases the line value here on the Aggies. UTEP might be hungrier off a loss but, off their first win over an FBS team this season, the Miners are lined up well to get hammered here. As for the Aggies, they have won 4 of 6 games and all 4 victories were by a double digit margin. Their defense is at least as good, if not better than the Miners and certainly the Aggies have the edge over this UTEP offense. The NM State offense actually has been better than we've seen in the past and I look for them to pull away for a comfortable road win in this one. Remember their season opening loss to UMass was a turnover driven defeat in which they won the yardage battle by 100 yards. They have responded ever since because one of their only 2 other losses was to a strong Liberty team. The Aggies are the better team and we get line value here because they are on the road. Lay it! 10* New Mexico State -3 |
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10-18-23 | Astros v. Rangers -126 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -126 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play Texas Rangers Money Line -126 vs Houston Astros @ 8:15 ET - As I mentioned entering the ALCS, this Rangers lineup is the better of the two lineups in this match-up. Sure enough they have done enough to win the first two games of this series and those were both in Houston! Don't let this line now fool you in Game 3. The odds makers set it this way for a reason. Watch so many pile up on Houston to avoid a 3-0 hole here because they have Javier on the mound and he has pitched well recently and Scherzer is coming back from injury and has not pitched in quite awhile. Many will be pounding the champs to get back on track here and get back into this series but sometimes teams are a team of destiny. As you can see so far in this post-season, does it not look like both the Phillies and the Rangers are destined to make the World Series this year? Philadelphia has looked so powerful so far and the Rangers have a great mix of talent and clubhouse cohesiveness that has led to a red hot run! Texas has now won all 7 of their post-season games and they also are a perfect 6-0 L6 home games dating back to regular season! This Game 3 of ALCS will be just their 2nd home game of this post-season and it will be an incredible atmosphere for sure. The Rangers continue to ride the wave of emotion and make it 7 straight home wins and also improve to a perfect 8-0 in the post-season. Look for Javier to struggle just enough on the road for the Rangers to get that early lead and look for Scherzer to make up for his only playoff start in 2022 being a rough one. He wanted this opportunity for redemption and will make the most of it. That is my prediction for this one! 10* TEXAS -126 |
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10-18-23 | Capitals v. Senators OVER 6.5 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
NHL Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 6.5 in Ottawa Senators vs Washington Capitals @ 7:07 ET - All 3 of the Senators games have totaled at least 7 goals. The Capitals have only played twice and they have trended lower scoring but their first game was at 3-0 midway through the 2nd but died after that. The Caps second game was 2-2 at the halfway point of the 2nd period but no one scored after that. It was then decided in a shootout. The Capitals won the game in the shootout. Whether they deserved that win or not (they were heavily outshot) the fact is the Caps will pull on some positive momentum from that win and put it to good use here! However, they also have been getting peppered with shots on goal in both of their games and heavily outshot and Washington will not be able to slow down this improving Senators club at Ottawa. Look for both the Caps and Sens to reach the 3-goal mark in this one. That would push this one to at least a 4-3 final but who wins? That is not our concern as we grab the over here in a game that tops the 6.5 mark. 10* OVER 6.5 in Ottawa |
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10-18-23 | Bala Town v. Connahs Quay OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -125 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
Rotation #224077: Welsh Premier League: Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 -125 in Connah's Quay vs Bala Town @ 2:45 ET - The Connah's Quay Nomads are in 2nd place in the league and they have a strong attack to thank for their positioning. Though they are allowing 1.3 goals per match this season, they also are scoring an incredible average of 3 goals per match on the season. There have been 11 matches for Connah's Quay so this is certainly no fluke. Their matches are consistently high-scoring and, keep in mind, their home matches have averaged a total of 4 goals apiece so I like our chances here of this one getting to at least 3 goals. Note that Bala Town has been one of the lowest-scoring clubs in the league and they have conceded only 8 goals on the campaign so they have been the stingiest club as well. However, the Nomads will dictate the flow of this match on their home pitch and I do not see them being denied here. At the same time, Connah's Quay is not opposed to being so aggressive on the attack that they allow some opportunities for their opponents on the counter-attack. Look for Bala Town to get on the board here but the hosts ultimately prevail with a victory. The result is 3 or more goals scored. 10* OVER 2.5 in Connah's Quay |
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10-18-23 | Sarajevo v. Borac Banja Luka OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
Rotation #211689: Premier League of Bosnia and Herzegovina: Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 +105 in Borac Banja Luka vs Sarajevo @ 1 ET - Borac Banja Luka is hosting this match and they are the top club in the league. Their goal-scoring has been a key to their success. Right behind them in the standings is Sarajevo and they also have had a lot of success thanks to an aggressive attack! Yes, both clubs are allowing an average of only 0.7 goals per match this season but the attacking options they have are too strong to expect anything less than a 2-1 final here. Note that Borac Banja Luka has scored an average of 3 goals per match in winning 8 straight matches since they opened the season with a shutout loss! Also, they have scored at least 2 goals in 7 of their 8 wins and they allowed 2 goals in their only loss. As for Sarajevo, their most recent road match was a 1-0 loss but they have followed that up with B2B wins and scored at least 2 goals in each. Also their only other two road matches this season saw them both score and concede in each match and each match totaled 3 or more goals. More of the same here. 10* OVER 2.5 +105 in Borac Banja Luka |
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10-17-23 | Stars -105 v. Golden Knights | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
DALLAS STARS -105 - These teams met in the Western Conference finals last season and the Golden Knights advanced and then beat Florida to win the Stanley Cup. There were 3 games in Vegas during the series with Dallas and the Knights did not beat the Stars a single time in regulation here. Vegas actually lost one of the games but then were fortunate to win each of the other two in overtime! In other words, that is certainly a series that could have played out much differently had the Knights not won each of the first two games in overtime here in Vegas. The Stars have not forgotten about this and they have been anxiously waiting for this game. They could have the fresher legs here too as the Knights are already playing for the 4th time this season while the Stars have had just one game so far. So grab the road team here and look for some big-time revenge! There is a reason this line has moved heavily toward the Stars in this one. They have a great shot at revenge here and the odds favor it happening the way I see it! DALLAS -105 |
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10-17-23 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies -153 | Top | 0-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -160 vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 8:07 ET - Before this NLCS, what a series with the Braves that just wrapped in Philly in terms of Game 3 filled with homers in a raucous Philly environment and then a tight, low-scoring win to wrap things up in Game 4. About that environment, the Phillies are so tough to beat here. They went 49-32 in the regular season plus, prior to the loss at Atlanta last Monday, the Phillies were 12-2 against NL foes in the post-season the past two years and enter this one (Game 2 after the 5-3 win in Game 1 vs Arizona) now a PERFECT 10-0 in home games against NL teams the past two post-seasons. Have you looked at this Phillies lineup? Imagine you are a starting pitcher in MLB, who the hell do you want to pitch to? This lineup is so stacked and so deep! Yes, I think highly of this Diamondbacks club and they are a great team but they're facing a tough test here and unlikely to steal a game at Citizens Bank Park. I feel the lower portion of Arizona's lineup is just not quite as strong. As for Philly, the 6-7-8 hitters in the lineup in this post-season have included guys like Realmuto, Castellanos, and Marsh! Those guys are all dangerous hitters that can take you deep. This is the back half of the lineup folks! This Phillies team has an incredibly dangerous and deep lineup that is also known for being so strong at home. Yes, Merrill Kelly is a fantastic pitcher but, as his stats clearly show, he is much more likely to struggle when facing this Phillies team here in Philly than when he faces them in Arizona. Kelly has had some road struggles this season and did struggle overall in a few of his late season starts. Aaron Nola is a fantastic veteran pitcher and was strong late in the season and also to begin the post-season and I like Philadelphia here at home even though the price is a bit moderate in the -160 range. Nola also is supported by a rock solid bullpen and I do feel strongly that Philly has the bullpen edge in this match-up. This Philly team takes that aforementioned home team run to 11 IN A ROW! Lay it! 10* PHILADELPHIA -160 |
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10-17-23 | Oilers -140 v. Predators | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
EDMONTON OILERS -140 - The Oilers are angry off B2B losses to start the season. They lost two games to the Canucks and now begin a 2-game road trip to the states. Look for this quick 2-game jaunt to get Edmonton going and it starts right here. The Oilers are projected to be one of the best teams in the league this season. The fact they are 0-2 gets us some added line value here. The Predators did win their only home game but I like that factor as, if this was the Preds home opener I might shy away. Overall I know this Nashville team is just not on the level the Oilers are and the Preds have already lost 2 of their first 3 games this season. Edmonton is going to be ultra determined off B2B losses and we take advantage of the line value here because if this game was at home the line would be too pricey. Here we get line value on the road! EDMONTON -140 |
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10-17-23 | Western Kentucky -7.5 v. Jacksonville State | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
CFB Tuesday 10* Top Play Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (-) @ Jacksonville State Gamecocks @ 7:30 ET - This line is right around a 7.5 as of mid-morning on gameday and I am laying it! The Gamecocks got hammered at home versus Liberty last week and this followed some fortunate come from behind wins against weaker competition than the Flames. The point is that the Gamecocks are still overrated as they played a weak schedule and are very fortunate to be 5-2 SU on the season. So the Hilltoppers are only 4-2 on the season and on the road here but they are favored by a TD plus the hook? Seems like a headscratcher, right? Do not let the line fool you! Western Kentucky has played the tougher schedule and they are coming off a bye week and they are the overall better team that also has done a great job of creating turnovers this season. Jacksonville State having a 5-2 record this season will insure that the Toppers have the proper focus entering this one and I look for the road team to roll as a result. Also, this play falls into a 100% system for WKU as they have won 6 in a row ATS when they enter game off of B2B wins SU+ATS and are now facing a team with a winning record. All this makes good sense as it means when the Toppers are rolling and now facing a team with a solid record (which helps keep the line reasonable) they have stayed hot. Look for coach Tyson Helton to again have his team ready to roll here! That streak reaches 7-0 ATS! Lay it! 10* WESTERN KENTUCKY (-) |
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10-17-23 | Canucks v. Flyers +115 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 115 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
PHILADELPHIA FLYERS +115 - This is the Flyers home opener and they catch Vancouver off huge B2B wins over the division rival Oilers. Yes, Vancouver is 2-0 to start the season but off those B2B wins including a hard-fought 2nd game win, how much will they have left in the tank here? Canucks get caught still celebrating plus they have a perceived tougher game on deck at Tampa Bay. They might look right past the Flyers and the home dog gets it done in their home opener. PHILADELPHIA +115 |
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10-17-23 | Hungary v. Lithuania OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
Rotation #225573: Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage: Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 -105/-110 in Lithuania vs Hungary @ 2:45 ET - Hungary has won the last 3 meetings by a combined score of 8 to 0 and they are a big favorite here for a reason. However, Lithuania has been scrappy and that is why I am looking for a 2-1 type match here. I like the way both Hungary and Lithuania have been playing of late and I am expecting plenty of goals. Lithuania had allowed 2 goals per match last 5 in this competition before the 2-0 shutout victory in most recent match. That big win gives them confidence on the attack but their prior goals conceded numbers tell the full story. They will give up goals here just like they did in the 2-0 defeat in the reverse fixture. So you can see why I am looking for a 2-1 type final here as Hungary has both scored and conceded in 3 straight matches since the 2-0 win over Lithuania and this home club is starting to believe. That is why I believe the hosts score but the visitors ultimately prove to be too much in a match that should finish at least 2-1. Looking for 3 or more here in what should be one of the most entertaining matches of the night! 10* OVER 2.5 -105/-110 in Lithuania |
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10-17-23 | Kazakhstan v. Finland OVER 2 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 31 m | Show |
Rotation #225565: Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage: Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 2 -135/-145 in Finland vs Kazakhstan @ Noon ET - In an odd way, the pressure is off each of these clubs because they lost their most recent matches. That will result in a more free-flowing match than we saw in the first meeting which was a 1-0 Finland win. Note that Finland has conceded 4 times in their last 2 matches but they are a pricey money line favorite for a reason here. I am looking for a 2-1 type match. Kazakhstan has scored at least 1 goal in all of their matches in this group stage except for the shutout loss to Finland. In fact, Kazakhstan averaged 1.7 goals scored in these other 6 matches. They will make up for the shutout loss here but they can not stop the hosts here either. The fact this total has dropped to goals instead of 2.5 is also a solid value for us. I am expecting at least 3 goals here but like the added security of the 1.5 as well. 10* OVER 2 -135/-145 in Finland |
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10-16-23 | Cowboys v. Chargers +2 | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -111 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
NFL Monday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Chargers + vs Dallas Cowboys @ 8:15 ET - This line is as high as a +2 on the Chargers as of early gameday morning and this is a great spot for the home dog. Los Angeles is coming off a bye. LA has been in their home state ever since a win 3 weeks ago at Minnesota when they knocked off the Vikings. They are now off B2B wins plus expected to get stud RB Austin Ekeler back for this one. He has been out since Week 1 and he is a helluva player! That is when he put up 164 yards of offense, including 117 on the ground on just 16 carries, and he scored a touchdown. He essentially ran roughshod over a Dolphins team that is now 5-1 on the season. Speaking of facing tough opposition, it is something these Cowboys had not done until facing the Niners last week and we all know what happened then. Dallas looked like a high school team trying to take on a college team. Yes, it was that bad. Here is the thing. Dallas is not that good. They are overrated. Look at their skill position players. Look at how they perform against better teams. Prescott always seems to struggle against the better teams as he showed again last week. So the Cowboys stats on the season are quite irrelevant because what really matters is who they have played and then how they perform against better teams. So heading into this week, the 4 teams Dallas had faced entered this week with a combined record of 5-15. Do you really care what stats Dallas put up against such bad teams when they now face a team that is expected to be in the playoffs this season? Also, of the 5 teams Dallas has faced so far this season 4 of them then lost AGAIN this week! Now the Cowboys are on the road AGAIN and they are favored AGAIN and I am going to sit back and happily watch them again disappoint the legion of Boys fans all over the globe. This team is just not strong against the better teams in the league. Year after year they give their fans false hope by annihilating bad teams (which pads their inflated stats) and then struggling against better teams. As I said, last week when we had the Niners over the Cowboys, "Jerry Jones still has too much say so in this Cowboys organization and that is why they continue to be good but not great!" and also as I alluded to last week I am not a fan of McCarthy as a coach and think he again will get out-coached this week. Give me the home team to make it 3 straight wins. Note their 2 losses were by 2 points to a now 5-1 Miami team and the other loss in OT by a FG. So I will grab the points being offered here but I do not expect to need them. 10* LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (+) points |
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10-16-23 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies -159 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
MLB Monday Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -160 vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 8:07 ET - What a series that just wrapped in Philly in terms of Game 3 filled with homers in a raucous Philly environment and then a tight, low-scoring win to wrap things up in Game 4. About that environment, the Phillies are so tough to beat here. They went 49-32 in the regular season plus, prior to the loss at Atlanta Monday, the Phillies were 12-2 against NL foes in the post-season the past two years and enter this one (series opener hosting Arizona) now a PERFECT 9-0 in home games against NL teams the past two post-seasons. Have you looked at this Phillies lineup? Imagine you are a starting pitcher in MLB, who the hell do you want to pitch to? This lineup is so stacked and so deep! Yes, I think highly of this Diamondbacks club and they are a great team but their facing a tough test here and unlikely to steal Game 1. I feel lower portion of Arizona's lineup is just not quite as strong. As for Philly, the 6-7-8 hitters in the lineup in this post-season have included guys like Realmuto, Castellanos, and Marsh! Those guys are all dangerous hitters that can take you deep. This is the back half of the lineup folks! This Phillies team has an incredibly dangerous and deep lineup that is also known for being so strong at home. Yes, Zac Gallen is a fantastic pitcher but, as his stats clearly show, he is much more likely struggle when facing this Phillies team here in Philly than when he faces them in Arizona. Gallen has had some road struggles this season. Zack Wheeler is a great pitcher and I like Philadelphia here at home even though the price is a bit moderate in the -160 range. Wheeler als is supported by a rock solid bullpen and I do feel strongly that Philly has the bullpen edge in this match-up. This Philly team takes that aforementioned home team run to 10 IN A ROW! Lay it! PHILADELPHIA -160 |
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10-16-23 | Red Wings v. Blue Jackets OVER 6.5 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -131 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
NHL Monday 10* Top Play OVER 6.5 in Columbus Blue Jackets vs Detroit Red Wings @ 7:07 ET - The goals have been flying for both of these clubs in terms of both scoring and conceding and I do not see that changing here. Detroit has a lot of young talented players and has really been built up well during their rebuild project in recent seasons including adding some key veteran support entering this season. The Blue Jackets are at home here and will do some damage in the offensive zone. Neither club has been getting stellar goalie work early this season and both clubs are off wins and playing with confidence right now. The Red Wings just won 6-4 and they also scored 3 goals in their season opening loss. The Blue Jackets are off a 5-3 win and allowed 4 goals in their season opener. The fact is that each club has played twice and allowed at least 3 goals in each game. I don't see any reason for that trending to change here and if each team concedes 3 goals again this game has to end with at least a 4-3 final and that puts us in the winners circle with this play! 10* OVER 6.5 in Columbus |
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10-16-23 | Netherlands v. Greece OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
Rotation #225553: Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage Monday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 +115 in Greece vs Netherlands @ 2:45 ET - The last 3 meetings between these clubs have all totaled at least 3 goals and that includes a 3-0 Netherlands win versus Greece last month. Now Greece is hosting and they should respond here. They have added confidence of B2B wins by a combined score of 7 to 0. I expect them to score at least 1 goal here but, of course, Netherlands is favored for a reason. Greece has won their two home matches in this competition by a combined score of 7 to 1. Again, the competition is now tougher here but they have the confidence and will be on the attack and should enjoy some success. I just do not see them stopping Netherlands however, The visitors in this one have scored an average of 2 goals per match in their last 6 matches across all competitions. Dating back to World Cup action in December, 9 straight Netherlands matches have totaled at least 3 goals (these averaged 4 goals!). I look for this one to make it 10 IN A ROW totaling at least 3 goals. 10* OVER 2.5 +115 in Greece |
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10-16-23 | Austria v. Azerbaijan OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -145 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
Rotation #225537: Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage Monday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 -145 in Azerbaijan vs Austria @ Noon ET - Austria is a huge favorite for a reason but Azerbaijan is known for being tough at home and will not be a pushover here. That is why I am anticipating a 2-1 type match. Azerbaijan has lost the last 3 meetings each by a 3-goal margin and the last two, including one this year, were 4-1 finals which would suit us just fine here as well. Azerbaijan has some added confidence of entering this one off back to back wins and having scored 2 goals in each victory (one was a friendly). So look for the hosts to get on the board here but they will not be able to stop Austria. The visitors have scored an average of 2.3 goals per match in their 6 matches so far in thi group stage. Also, Austria will be very focused here and aggressive on the attack after spotting Belgium a 3-goal lead in their last match and ultimately falling short in the 3-2 final. This is payback time and, even dealing with some injury issues, still plenty of firepower available for some big goal-scoring in this one. 10* OVER 2.5 -145 in Azerbaijan |
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10-15-23 | Giants v. Bills OVER 43.5 | Top | 9-14 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Buffalo Bills vs New York Giants @ 8:20 ET - This total has dropped to the 43.5 range. I understand the concern here with the Giants often struggling to score points. However, New York is going to get a surprising boost here with Daniel Jones out. I believe Tyrod Taylor - his 3 biggest seasons here in Buffalo - is going to step up with a big game in place of Jones. Going against his former team and with the Bills defense not looking quite as dominant as usual early this season, Taylor and the Giants are going to surprise some people this week. I know they have issues on the offensive line but also Saquan Barkley is likely to play in this one and I am expecting a huge effort in prime-time action on Sunday. The Giants have certainly struggled badly and faced a brutally tough schedule but they will want to step up here in primetime and finally put forth a positive effort on offense. I do expect that to happen but the issue is that the NYG defense has no chance (the way I see it) to stop a Bills offense that has been one of the best in the league statistically so far this season. The Buffalo offense has been piling up yardage through the air but often has been done in by turnovers. Even with those turnover issues, the Bills have averaged scoring 36 points per game last 4 games. The Giants allowing 30.6 points per game on the season and are in trouble here on defense. But look for NY to get an unexpected spark on offense with Taylor - he wants this and will be highly motivated for a strong game! The Giants are averaging 20 points per game on the road this season but are a 15 point dog here for a reason. How about a 35-20 Bills win per the above stats? That works for me and, either way, I am looking for at least 45 in this one but truly 55 would not surprise me at all! 10* OVER the total in Buffalo |
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10-15-23 | Rangers +123 v. Astros | Top | 2-0 | Win | 123 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
MLB Sunday Texas Rangers Money Line +123 @ Houston Astros @ 8:15 ET - The Astros actually finished 3 games below .500 at home in the regular season this year. The Rangers, of course, playing in their home state too. Not much of a trip to head down to Houston from the Dallas area. That said, I really like Texas to steal a game down here in Houston and get home field advantage. Home field was nothing special for the Astros and they face a tough pitcher here. I know Montgomery struggled in his most recent start but this followed 5 straight stellar outings including his first of this post-season. Montgomery allowed a TOTAL of only TWO earned runs in those FIVE starts! He averaged 7 innings per start also so this was a phenomenal stretch of work and one bad start will not change all that. Montgomery bounces back here and now lets talk about Verlander. He is off a strong start but did get roughed up at home in a few of his post-season starts last year and this Rangers lineup is the better of the two lineups in this match-up. They will surprise here and this reason the money line on the Astros is so low here. Don't let the low line fool you. The odds makers set it this way for a reason. Watch so many pile up on Houston at home here with Verlander on the mound and then fall short. That is my prediction for this one! 10* TEXAS +123 |
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10-15-23 | Lightning v. Senators OVER 6.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
NHL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 6.5 -135 in Ottawa Senators vs Tampa Bay Lightning @ 7:07 ET - Big total here has moved to 7 in a lot of place but this big number is justified. Not only is this a B2B spot for both clubs, but they have goalie concerns in a B2B and both clubs have been scoring well. Since TB used Johannsen yesterday and Vasilevskiy is out, rookie Matt Tomkins could get the start here. Ottawa used Forsberg yesterday so Koprisalo likely to get the call here and he allowed 5 goals in his first start this season. Overall, the Senators first two games have totaled 15 goals and the Bolts first two games have totaled 18 goals. In other words, we should see plenty of goals here! 10* OVER 6.5 -135 in Ottawa |
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10-15-23 | Eagles -6 v. Jets | Top | 14-20 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (-) points @ New York Jets @ 4:25 ET - For those of you that did not know, the Jets win at Denver last week was practically like New York winning their Super Bowl for this season. I am kidding but only partially kidding as the fact is there had been a major war of words between Broncos coach Payton and Jets offensive coordinator Hackett. The later had preceded him at Denver as the head coach and Payton made the mistake of criticizing him badly. Hackett, though only the OC, got the game ball after the Jets win over a bad Broncos team in which New York had over 400 yards of offense and scored 31 points. On that note, this is a big-time flat spot for what is still not a good Jets team and we have some 100% angles here that support 5-0 Philadelphia in this spot. The Jets are 0-5 ATS when they are a home dog after a game in which they scored at least 28 points. Also, in terms of historical data, the Eagles are a perfect 7-0 ATS when they face an AFC East opponent that is coming off a win. So this is a double perfect spot favoring the Eagles with those TWO 100% PERFECT trends. Statistically the Jets are not good on either side of the ball yet they have managed B2B covers and have a couple of SU wins on the season. The Eagles are one of the best teams in the league on both sides of the ball and this is a value line at less than a TD. Currently the dominant number is 6.5 as of early gameday morning. Lay it! 10* PHILADELPHIA (-) points |
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10-15-23 | Panthers +14.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 21-42 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Carolina Panthers (+) points @ Miami Dolphins @ 1 ET - This line has moved to as high as 14.5 as of 7 hours before kick-off. This has me in play here because it is not easy to cover big spreads in the NFL. These guys are professionals and they are paid to play the game for a reason. This Panthers defense is actually statistically better than the Dolphins defense on the season when looking at yards. I know the problem in this match-up for Carolina backers is that the offense is certainly worlds better for Miami that it is for the Panthers. However, the Panthers need to protect the ball, play solid defense, create some turnovers, and catch the Dolphins looking ahead to a match-up with 5-0 Philly that is on deck. The fact is if all those things happened we even could see the biggest upset of the season here. I am not banking on that but I honestly do fully expect this game will be decided by a one-score margin. Even if I am wrong, but not by too much, a 2-TD margin here still gets us the cash. I love the big dog in this match-up as the set-up is perfect. The Giants team the Dolphins just beat is decimated by injuries. The Panthers are off another ugly loss but they played better than the final score indicated. Then when you factor in Miami's trip to Philadelphia is on deck while Carolina can go all out with a bye on deck, this is a fantastic match-up for a big dog cover. The Panthers are 14-2 ATS when they are off a road loss to an NFC opponent by a double digit margin. Trust me, that loss at Detroit got Carolina and Frank Reich's attention as they look to right the ship before the bye week. 10* CAROLINA + points |
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10-15-23 | Faroe Islands v. Czech Republic OVER 3.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 60 m | Show |
Rotation #225505: Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage: Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 3.5 +110 in Czech Republic vs Faroe Islands @ Noon ET - Faroe Islands are so over-matched and though they have managed to keep most of the final scores respectable, this one shapes up differently. Faroe Islands hosted the first meeting and lost 3-0 to Czech Republic. Now they face an angry host coming off a loss and so Czech Republic will not hesitate to run up the score here. The last time they hosted Faroe Islands they won 5-0 and they had 4 goals in the first half. In the 3-0 win at Faroe Islands they had 2 goals in the first half. Again, they are angry here because of a 3-0 loss to Albania and I know they will be relentless in this match! Should be easy over! 10* Top Play OVER 3.5 +110 in Czech Republic |
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10-15-23 | Belarus v. Switzerland OVER 3 | Top | 3-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
Rotation #225509: Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage: Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 3 -145 in Switzerland vs Belarus @ Noon ET - Getting 3 here is a key number as 8 straight Switzerland matches, including all 6 in this qualifying group stage action, have totaled at least 3 goals! Those 8 matches have averaged 4.3 goals apiece and Switzerland won the reverse fixture with Belarus 5 to 0. With Switzerland's match with Israel canceled, they will have fresh legs here but could some early sloppiness allow Belarus a surprise goal off a Swiss mistake? I am expecting something along those lines and plus the hosts are favored by 2.5 goals on the goal line for a reason. Look for possibly even a 4 to 1 match here but either way, getting this one over the total of 3 goals should not be a problem. I know Belarus has been involved in some low-scoring games of late but that has to do with the competition they have faced. This one will play out quite wide-open with plenty of scoring from the home side as they look for an emphatic win in their quest to punch their ticket to advancement in this qualifying action! 10* Top Play OVER 3 -145 in Switzerland |
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10-14-23 | Miami-FL v. North Carolina OVER 56.5 | Top | 31-41 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in North Carolina Tar Heels vs Miami-Fl Hurricanes @ 7:30 ET - This total has dropped to as low as 56.5 as of early game day morning and I feel we have excellent line value here in what I anticipate to be a higher-scoring game. The Tar Heels are one of the faster-paced teams in the league based on number of offensive plays per game. Also, the Heels have a solid passing attack. The Hurricanes are expected to have the same potency on offense but were done in by their own mistakes in last week's loss to Georgia Tech. The Canes actually had over 450 yards of offense but had 5 turnovers in the game! That was why they scored only 20 points. They will make up for that here because the UNC defense is over-rated right now. However, I feel the Canes defense, though good, is also over-rated and facing a tough test here with a Tar Heels offense that has been dangerous in recent seasons. North Carolina has scored 31 points or more in all their games this season. The defense has solid numbers but look at the offenses they have faced. That certainly has played a key role. As for the Hurricanes, they should have scored a lot more last week and will make up for that here. Also, the Canes entered that game having scored at least 38 points in all their games this week. Similar to the Heels, strong defensive numbers but look at the offenses they faced in a number of those games. In my strong opinion, we have two solid offenses and two over-rated defenses and we have line value because each team off an under last week as well and I am not saying the defenses are not good but they will both be exposed here by two very talented offenses in perfectly fine weather conditions this evening. 10* OVER the total in North Carolina |
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10-14-23 | UMass +42 v. Penn State | Top | 0-63 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
CFB Saturday CFB 10* UMass Minutemen + points @ Penn State Nittany Lions @ 3:30 ET - I know it may seem tough to take one of the worst teams in FBS football against one of the best in the nation but, as of early game day morning the line on this one is as high as 42 points! There are some keys here that have led to big value here in a game in which I feel the Lions will call off the dogs before running up the score. One of the big keys here that I think people may be overlooking is that rain is in the forecast all day long in State College today. Beaver Stadium in PA will still be packed with fans but the field conditions could get sloppy here. I mean we are not just talking about drizzle or mist, this is supposed to a significant and persistent rainfall. I love having big dogs in ugly weather games and you will rarely see lines bigger than this one. I know UMass is a bad football team but they won their season opener on the road and also have a 2 point road loss under their belts, a 3 point home loss in OT as well, and they had as many first downs as Toledo in their loss to the Rockets last week that was a bit of a "phony" final score. Of course, the Minutemen are nowhere near on the level of Penn State but they have been a bit more competitive this season than what I have seen from them in the past. Also, they have a bye week on deck and certainly will leave it all on the field for this one in terms of their best effort. Speaking of byes, the Nittany Lions are off a bye week after a Big Ten road win at Northwestern and they have a huge game on deck at Ohio State. This is the perfect spot for the Nittany Lions to be a bit complacent early on in this game plus then start thinking about the Buckeyes once they do get up big in this game. They will likely rest their first stringers as this game goes on plus the expected ugly weather conditions will likely make the right choice to be a conservative grind it out second half with a heavy dose of the ground game and just running clock. Note that PSU is 0-4 ATS when they are playing with rest and facing an opponent with a winning percentage of less than .666 and this is another one of those perfect spots for the Lions to be a bit complacent. Also, Penn State has covered just 20% of the time when coming off a game against Northwestern. I like all the edges here, including the weather, to help this game end up being decided in the 20s or maybe 30s at most. 10* MASSACHUSETTS + points |
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10-14-23 | Kansas v. Oklahoma State +3 | Top | 32-39 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
Saturday CFB 10* Top Play Oklahoma State Cowboys + points vs Kansas Jayhawks @ 3:30 ET - In Lance Leipold's first season at Kansas the Jayhawks came to Stillwater, OK and got annihilated 55 to 3. They got major payback last season when they hosted the Cowboys and won 37 to 16. So the home team in the Mike Gundy vs Lance Leipold match-ups is 92 to 19 so far. This one, of course, is not going to be that easy for the hosts but I do think the home team wins and I love the fact we are getting 3 points to work with as home dog OSU is catching a full field goal as of early game day morning. Quick...when is the last time Kansas was a Big 12 road favorite? Stumped? Don't feel bad as it has been more than a DECADE as you have to go back about 14 years to find it! Sure, Kansas is improved and Oklahoma State is down from where they use to be but their ugly home loss to South Alabama was the wake-up call this team needed. The Cowboys have been undervalued since then and got an outright win last week as a double digit home dog to Kansas State! Just like knocking off the Wildcats they can now knock off the same-state Jayhawks as well. Kansas did not win last week's game as easily as the final score would lead you to believe. At least from a stats perspective. Also, their road game before that was an annihilation loss at Texas. Kansas has wins against a lot of bad teams this season. The last two games they have been without their starting QB and he is not expected to start this game either. As for the Cowboys, they seem to have things settling down at the QB position and have added confidence of the much needed win last week. Now they look to get some revenge and this spot is also supported by an 11-0 ATS angle. The last 11 times that OSU has been a dog of less than 7 points against a team that is coming in off a SU win, they have covered the spread all 11 times! This one should make it 12 straight as the Cowboys get revenge for last year's embarrassing loss at Kansas. Gundy has his guys ready and they protect their home turf in this one! 10* OKLAHOMA STATE + points |
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10-14-23 | Serbia v. Hungary OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 130 | 4 h 41 m | Show |
Rotation #225485: Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 +130 in Hungary vs Serbia @ 2:45 ET - When these clubs met in Serbia it was a 2-1 Hungary win and all 3 goals were scored before half-time! In other words, this is a bargain total when you consider what these clubs were on pace for the last time they met. This time look for plenty of scoring both in the first half and second half. Serbia's last 4 matches across all competitions have seen an average of 3.5 goals scored and 3 of the 4 totaled 3 goals. Also, Serbia has both scored and conceded in 4 straight matches. As for the hosts in this one, Hungary has scored an average of 1.8 goals in their last 5 home matches across all competitions. Also, Hungary looks healthy on the attack and Serbia is having some inconsistency on defense. That said, Serbia is seeking revenge here and this is an important match but Hungary is so strong. In other words, expect at least a 2-1 final in this one. 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 +135 in Hungary |
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10-14-23 | Flyers +162 v. Senators | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 2 m | Show |
NHL Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Flyers +160 @ Ottawa Senators @ 1:05 ET - Late breaking play but wanted to see what this line did and this one is all about the line value. Yes the Senators are at home and finished better than the Flyers last season but Philadelphia now has Sean Couturier back and they looked very good in winning their season opener. I know the Sens are a respectable team and likely to finish with a better record than Philly when this season is in the books but the fact is the Flyers are going to ride a wave of positive energy at least early this season before reality sets in. Carter Hart fully capable of another strong start here in goal and the Senators gave up 5 goals in their opener. Yes it was against a tough Hurricanes team but confidence counts for something too and I could see the Sens coming home and struggling a bit in their home opener with the added pressure of wanting badly to win this for their home fans. Conversely, the Flyers ride the wave of positive emotion of their season-opening road win and just carry that right into this game. Philly could surprise some bettors early because the addition of Daniel Briere in management and Keith Jones in hockey operations is going to have a very positive impact on this team. Ride the wave before Philly starts facing some high-quality teams as that is when things will change in a hurry. Ottawa is respectable but they are being given too much credit here. 10* PHILADELPHIA +160 |
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10-13-23 | Stanford +12.5 v. Colorado | Top | 46-43 | Win | 100 | 18 h 44 m | Show |
CFB Friday 10* Top Play Stanford Cardinal (+) @ Colorado Buffaloes @ 10 ET - This line is around a dozen points as of early gameday morning and I feel it will prove to be too much. Stanford has a new head coach this season and is having some growing pains as expected. However, now they enter this game off a bye week and having had a chance to evaluate everything and make some changes and get ready to attack the rest of the season refreshed a bit both mentally and physically. Colorado, on the other hand, has a bye on deck and they enter this game off a tight win at Arizona State where they won the game by 3 points plus were outgained by 100 yards! The Buffaloes are over-rated because of all the Coach Prime hype. I am not saying they will not win this game but I do not expect them to cover. Note that 3 of the 4 wins Colorado has have come by a margin of 8 points or less and the one by 8 points was a very fortunate OT win over Colorado State. The other key about the Buffs wins is that none of them have come against a team that currently has a winning record this season. Now, as noted above, Stanford has certainly struggled. But one could argue (and rightly so) that the Buffaloes could easily be a 1-win team so far this season just like Stanford. Also, this situation is set up well with the Cardinal coming in off a bye week and catching double digits in points. I know Stanford has been bad this season but the Buffaloes are over-valued and the Cardinal view this game as a big one to jump-start their 2nd half of the season and the lion's share portion of their Pac-12 schedule which remains. The Buffaloes will overlook the Cardinal and this big road dog comes into this one fully ready. An outright upset would not shock me but of course that is still asking a bit much. I will happily grab the big points! 10* STANFORD (+) |
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10-13-23 | Saskatchewan +3.5 v. Calgary | Top | 19-26 | Loss | -108 | 16 h 39 m | Show |
CFL Friday 10* Top Play Saskatchewan Roughriders (+) @ Calgary Stampeders @ 9:30 ET - Current line on this one is 3.5 points as of early gameday morning. Both teams have struggled but the Stampeders are going to be without their leading WR and leading rusher for this game. Also, I like the fact Saskatchewan is off an ugly home loss to a surging Hamilton team. That has led to line value here. The Roughriders had some meetings heading into this week's contest and the veteran leadership on this team is stepping up for this game. This is a revenge game too. Both match-ups this season have been tight but the Roughriders lost the most recent one at home by 2 points. This will be payback here. Both teams motivated to win as Calgary must win to keep their playoff hopes alive but it is the Riders who can secure a playoff berth with victory here. Even if Saskatchewan falls short of the outright win here, look for the loss to be by 3 or less points. This one could go down to the wire but, in the end, the couple of key guys being out for this game for the Stamps are going to be the difference maker. 10* SASKATCHEWAN + points |
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10-13-23 | Penguins -119 v. Capitals | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
NHL Friday 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Penguins Money Line -120 @ Washington Capitals @ 7:37 ET - The Penguins have an edge here as they already have a game under their belts. Also, the way that one played out is the kind of loss that gives a team a lot of extra motivation for their next games. Was season opener for the Pens and was home in Pittsburgh and they were hosting a Blackhawks team that many project to be quite bad again this season. The Penguins were up 2-0 and then late 2nd period (never a good time to give up a goal but this is one of the worst times), the Pens allowed a goal. Suddenly the game was 2-1 and sure enough the Blackhawks fed off that momentum in the 3rd period after tying it midway through and then going on to win the game 4-2. This insures a very focused effort from the Penguins and this team has improved much more than the Capitals entering this season. Of course this is still Ovechkin's team and I love the fact that Ovi has been with Washington his entire career and the same for Crosby and Malkin with the Penguins. Nowadays you just don't see that as much and it is good to see. I think the Caps are going to struggle this season though as an inexperienced (from NHL perspective) Carberry the coach now and some new players to work in but some key guys hurting with Pacioretty and Edmundson both out. Look for the Capitals to struggle in first game of new season under new head coach and facing an angry division rival. The Pens/Caps rivalry is a great one and it continues here. 10* PITTSBURGH |
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10-13-23 | Slovakia v. Portugal OVER 3 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 105 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
Rotation #225461: Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage: Friday 10* Top Play OVER 3 +105 in Portugal vs Slovakia @ 2:45 ET - Portugal on a rampage and I know they have not allowed a goal during the qualifications but Slovakia has been playing respectably and I expect the visitors to get on the board here. But they will struggle, to say the least, to stop Portugal and that leads to at least a 3-1 type match here. Portugal is a heavy favorite with good reason of course and they are a 2-goal favorite on the goal line at some reputable shops. Portugal has scored an average of 4 goals in their 6-0 start to the qualifying and they will be relentless again here plus have excellent depth to be dangerous throughout. I know they won the last match between these clubs only 1-0 but they should have more scoring in that one plus it was at Slovakia. This one sets up much differently and Portugal off a 9-0 win in most recent action! Slovakia off a 3-0 win and has scored 1.6 goals last 5 matches. I expect the hosts to again get on the board here but their hosts will be relentless as they exude scoring confidence after the 9-0 win and they want to now emphatically punch their ticket to clinch advancement here in the qualifiers. There is a reason this line has trended upwards a bit from its opener. Don't let that keep you away from investing here! OVER 3 +105 in Portugal |
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10-13-23 | Azerbaijan v. Estonia OVER 2 | Top | 2-0 | Push | 0 | 4 h 50 m | Show |
Rotation #225437: Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage: Friday OVER 2 +100 in Estonia vs Azerbaijan @ Noon ET - Estonia is at home here and I expect a much stronger effort here against a weaker foe in a match that they know is a rare winnable match. However, Estonia is still so weak defensively that I can not envision them shutting down Azerbaijan. That said, looking for goals here. Look at the numbers to support taking advantage of this low total set at 2 goals with no juice on the over. Azerbaijan is off a 2-1 win in friendly action but had allowed an average of 3 goals per match in last 4 matches that preceded that. Estonia also has allowed 3 goals in last 5 matches. Each club has scored and conceded in the last two meetings between these clubs and that includes the one this past summer. Look for a 2-1 type match here as the hosts play for pride on their home pitch and the visitors are still pushing for qualification so they want the full 3 points here! OVER 2 +100 in Estonia |
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10-12-23 | Broncos +10.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 8-19 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Denver Broncos (+) @ Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:15 ET - Current line range is 10.5 points and is too much the way I see it! Game on short rest for both teams of course but this favors Denver in my opinion. Chiefs off win but were up in Minnesota and so not only a satisfying but coming off a week that involved travel. Yes the Broncos had to travel to get here of course but is a very short trip from Denver to KC and the Broncos mentality is much different entering this one. Denver is angry off embarrassing home loss to the Jets last week. Denver is now 1-4 this season and they lost 3 fumbles last week in a frustrating defeat. The Broncos will be the ugly dog here that no one wants to back but note that Sean Payton as a head coach has gone 9-3 ATS as a road dog and the last time they were in this role they were blasted by 50 points at Miami so I am quite confident Payton will have his troops ready this go around. Also, Payton's teams have gone 13-3 ATS as a divisional dog. Also, worth noting here is that the Chiefs have the Chargers up next. LA is the only real threat to KC for the division title this season. Could they get caught looking ahead? Keep in mind, the Chiefs are only 1-6 ATS last 7 in divisional games. The Chiefs also have covered just 2 of 8 when facing a team with a winning percentage under .400 so the lookahead theory is evident there too. Additionally, Kansas City has covered just 2 of 13 when coming off a non-conference road game and that was a hard-fought win over the Vikings last week. There is even more ATS stuff on this one from a situational standpoint but I will not bore you with the details. The simple fact is this is too many points to lay on a short week and facing an angry underdog that wants to play much better football this week. The Chiefs still the much better team of course and they find a way to win but I look for this game to be decided by just a 1-score margin as the Broncos put up a helluva fight! 10* DENVER (+) |
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10-12-23 | Braves v. Phillies +131 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 131 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
MLB Thursday Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +130 vs Atlanta Braves @ 8:07 ET - What a Game 3 filled with homers in a raucous Philly environment yesterday. About that environment, the Phillies are so tough to beat there. They went 49-32 in the regular season plus, prior to the loss at Atlanta Monday, the Phillies were 12-2 against NL foes in the post-season the past two years and enter this one now a PERFECT 8-0 in home games against NL teams the past two post-seasons after yesterday's 10-2 win. Have you looked at his Phillies lineup? Imagine you are a starting pitcher in MLB, who the hell do you want to pitch to? This lineup is so stacked and so deep! Yes, the Braves are a great team but their lineup really drops off after the top guys. As for Philly, the 6-7-8 hitters in the lineup yesterday were Realmuto, Castellanos, and Marsh! Those guys are all dangerous hitters that can take you deep. This is the back half of the lineup folks! This Phillies team has an incredibly dangerous and deep lineup that is also known for being so strong at home. Yes, Strider is a fantastic pitcher but facing this Phillies team with a chance to win this series in Philly after the way they were swinging the bats yesterday is going to be a totally different situation than when he faced them in Atlanta. Also, Suarez was solid in his short start at Atlanta earlier in the series. He is a gamer who has been in strong late-season form and is supported by a rock solid bullpen. This is a classic case where starting pitching is given so much weight in the marketplace that the team value going against the market perception is off the charts. Huge home dog value here. This Philly team takes that aforementioned home team run to 9 IN A ROW! Take advantage of the fantastic underdog price being offered here. PHILADELPHIA +130 |
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10-12-23 | Flyers +111 v. Blue Jackets | Top | 4-2 | Win | 111 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
NHL Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Flyers +110 @ Columbus Blue Jackets @ 7:05 ET - Philadelphia made some big changes in the off-season including in the front office and there is a new feeling among the Flyers right now. This team believes they can win now. They are still set to struggle against the better clubs in the NHL for sure but this is a very winnable game for them. They have a coach in Tortorella who is starting to build the team he wants and having guys involved like Briere in management and Jones in hockey operations there is just a new feel here. How did Columbus enter this season? With losing coach Mike Babcock right before the season. What a mess! The Blue Jackets were already set to struggle again this season but things just went from bad to worse in Columbus. The Flyers and Jackets are not playoff teams unless they completely shock the hockey world this season but, I will say this, Philly is in much better early season situation that Columbus. The Flyers get it done in this one. Trust me, there is a reason the Jackets are on home ice but hardly even favored here. Grab the road dog! 10* PHILADELPHIA +110 |
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10-12-23 | West Virginia v. Houston +3 | Top | 39-41 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
CFB Thursday 10* Top Play Houston Cougars (+) vs West Virginia Mountaineers @ 7 ET - When Dana Holgorsen was coaching West Virginia he left because he could not get the contract he wanted. The Mountaineers certainly could afford to pay him but they just did not want to. They felt he was not worth it and Holgorsen ended up in Houston while Neal Brown took over at West Virginia. The result was that Brown ended up on the hot seat with struggles with the Mountaineers whereas Holgorsen built up to the level of an 11-2 season and bowl win just 2 years ago. They then won their bowl game again last season but it was overall a lackluster campaign compared to the year prior. Now, having struggled some early this season too, this first game after a bye week and first chance against his former team has Holgorsen and his team fired up. They want this game badly. Sometimes bye weeks come at a great time for a team and other times it is bad timing. In this case, the Cougars had been struggling with 3 losses in 4 games since winning their season opener versus UTSA. Conversely, the Mountaineers had surprisingly been rolling with 4 straight wins. That makes this a perfect set up because Houston needed the bye but it was the last thing West Virginia wanted. Think about it too...why is a team that has won 4 straight laying just 3 points against a team that has gone 1-3 last 4 games and struggled in their Big 12 games? Don't fall for the trap here! The Cougars are hungry and at home and their coach will have them ready for this, perhaps, "do or die" game in the eyes of Holgorsen! 10* HOUSTON (+) |
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10-12-23 | Turkey v. Croatia OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
Rotation #225417: Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 +115 in Croatia vs Turkey @ 2:45 ET - Turkey, with a new manager, will respond here but Croatia is one of the top teams in the world and they are practically unbeatable on home soil. That is why I am projecting a 2-1 type match here. Croatia is off a tight 1-0 win at Armenia but, prior to this, had scored an average of 2.4 goals last 5 matches and that is evening including a scoreless draw with Spain in the UEFA Nations League. If you take that out of the equation, they had averaged 3 goals over this 4-match stretch. This is a big match in the group stage qualifying and Turkey will have some extra energy with the new manager effect. Turkey has seen 18 of last 24 matches total at least 3 goals! They have played 5 matches in this Group Stage and got shutdown by Croatia 2-0 but averaged scoring 2 goals in the other 4 matches. They will "bring it" here in this revenge match but that will open things up for Croatia on the counterattack too. 10* OVER 2.5 +115 in Croatia |
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10-12-23 | Armenia v. Latvia OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
Rotation #225401: Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 +120 in Latvia vs Armenia @ Noon ET - The last meeting was 2-1 and I expect at least 3 goals again in the rematch of June's meeting at Armenia. Latvia is at home and desperate to earn some points if even just now playing for pride. Armenia still has much to play for but facing a wounded home dog can be dangerous. I look for Latvia to put up a fight and get on the board but, of course, Armenia is favored for a reason. Look for 2-1 at least here. Armenia lost most recent match 1-0 but that was against a tough Croatia team. Prior to that, Armenia had both scored and conceded in all 5 of their matches in 2023. Those matches averaged 3.6 goals apiece. Latvia is off a 2-0 loss but, prior to this, 4 of their 5 matches this year totaled at least 3 goals and those 5 matches averaged 3.8 goals apiece. 10* OVER 2.5 +120 in Latvia |
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10-11-23 | Sam Houston State +3.5 v. New Mexico State | Top | 13-27 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
CFB Wednesday Sam Houston State Bearkats (+) @ New Mexico State Aggies @ 9 ET - Handicapping lesson 101. When you see a home team that is 3-3 laying only about a field goal to a team that is 0-5 on the season, it is time to take a close look. In this case, I would almost never play a favorite but would look at that winless dog. In this case, everything checks out for being worthy of a bet. I certainly respect coach Jerry Kill and his Aggies are decent, especially on defense. However, this Bearkats team has played the tougher overall schedule. There is a good reason this game is priced this way. Do not let the line fool you. The Bearkats nearly upset Liberty last week and they should have beaten Jacksonville State the week prior when they led by 8 with under 20 seconds to go! The point is that this team is much better than their 0-5 record would lead you to believe. The Bearkats have been double digit dogs in 4 of their 5 games so that tells you just how tough their schedule has been. Prior to a win over a bad FIU team last week in which the Aggies did not even pull away until the 4th quarter, New Mexico State was just 1-3 SU this season against FBS teams and Sam Houston has had just 1 home game this season while this will be the 4th home game this season for NM St. The point is that there is contrarian line value here with this 0-5 team that is catching 3 points plus the hook as of late morning game day. I am expecting an outright upset here but grabbing the points just in case. SAM HOUSTON STATE (+) |
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10-11-23 | Blackhawks v. Bruins OVER 6 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
NHL Wednesday OVER 6 in Boston Bruins vs Chicago Blackhawks @ 7:37 ET - It was difficult for me to pass on opening night of the NHL season yesterday but I held back the urge for "action" because that is what a professional needs to do. I specifically wanted to wait for this match-up because this is the only one Wednesday that involves one of the 6 teams that played in that small slate of 3 games on Tuesday. The set up here could not have worked out any better for an over! The Blackhawks are loaded with confidence after rallying against the Penguins in Pittsburgh for the 4-2 win. The Blackhawks now turn to back up goalie Arvid Soderblom after Petr Mrazek got the start last night. Mrazek is the #1 guy for a reason and Soderblom went 2-10 with a 3.45 ERA last season and now faces a Bruins team that can't wait to get going this season. Yes they lost some key guys from last season's team to retirement and player transactions but the core of this group is still here and remembers getting bounced right away in the playoffs after their epic regular season. Boston most definitely will be ready to go here but this Blackhawks team looked better than expected last night plus earned some confidence and they can score some goals here. Of course the Bruins are a massive money line favorite with good reason and they are -1.5 on the goal line at a pick'em price meaning that a multi-goal win would not be a surprise in the least. That said, I love this over as 6 gets us a push but truly expecting 8 goals here and think we'll see 7 at worst. OVER 6 in Boston |
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10-11-23 | Braves v. Phillies -122 | Top | 2-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -120 vs Atlanta Braves @ 5:07 ET - After a crushing loss the Phillies had two bits of good news after letting Game 2 slip away at Atlanta ... actually 3. First off the Phillies got an off day to recuperate yesterday and secondly they are now back home in Philly. Thirdly, the Braves do not even know who their starting pitcher will be and that truly speaks volumes. The Atlanta rotation is just not what it once was. They already used their top two starters and, think about it, they have only played 2 games since the regular season ended a week and a half ago and they still do not know who to start here. Again, this speaks volumes. The Braves could just go with an opener or go with Edler (seemed to wear down late in season). Elder allowed 13 earned runs in 12.1 innings to finish the season. Another option would be to go with young starter AJ Smith-Shawver. However, he is just 20 years old and would be making an appearance on the road in a raucous Philly environment. About that environment, the Phillies are so tough to beat there. They went 49-32 in the regular season plus, prior to the loss at Atlanta Monday, the Phillies were 12-2 against NL foes in the post-season the past two years and enter this one a PERFECT 7-0 in home games against NL teams the past two post-seasons. Aaron Nola is known for pitching very tough at home throughout his career and showed up big late in the season and in the playoffs against Miami already. He can get the job done again here. PHILADELPHIA -120 |
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10-10-23 | Orioles v. Rangers OVER 9 | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday OVER 9 in Texas Rangers vs Baltimore Orioles @ 8:03 ET - Look for a carry-over from the crazy high-scoring Game 2 in this series. Kremer will struggle in this spot on the road and the Rangers are swinging red hot bats. At the same time, Eovaldi was hit harder than it looked in his post-season start against the Rays last week. That said, we get some line value here because both these starters are solid pitchers with good numbers but these are two very solid lineups and both playing with a lot of confidence after the way Game 2 played out in particular. The hot hitting carries over here and this one should fly over the total. Eovaldi got some key double play balls plus there were a lot of line drives hit against him at Tampa Bay. Hats off to him for still getting the job done but he won't be so fortunate against an Orioles lineup that is more potent than the Rays plus knowing this is a do or die spot for them. Kremer is making his post-season debut and it is on the road and he was a little shaky in a couple of his final starts in the regular season that just wrapped up last month. OVER 9 in Texas |
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10-10-23 | Liberty -6.5 v. Jacksonville State | Top | 31-13 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
CFB Tuesday Liberty Flames (-) vs Jacksonville State Gamecocks @ 7:30 ET - Two weeks ago the Gamecocks pulled a rabbit out of the hat as -6.5 point favorites on the road at Sam Houston State. Ironically this line also is currently a 6.5 as of late morning Tuesday but this time Jacksonville State is on the other side of it as a home dog. I am laying the points with the road team here. The Gamecocks -6.5 were down 8 to the Bearkats but then scored a TD and 2 point conversion with just seconds left in regulation to force OT. They then got the ball first in OT and scored to take a 7 point lead and, you guessed it, Sam Houston could not answer. Was a miracle cover for the Gamecocks. Then last week they were down 23 to 7 at the half against Middle Tennessee State. Unbelievably Jacksonville State did it again. Not only rallying for the win they made it look even easier than it was as they won 45 to 30. All this has done is given us exceptional line value here because both those teams the Gamecocks beat are nowhere close to the level of this Liberty team. The Flames are undefeated this season and have the much better offense in comparison with the Gamecocks. I know Liberty did not dominate the Bearkats like they should have last week but they were up 21 to 10 at half and started looking ahead to this game. By the way, a few weeks ago Liberty caught FIU off an outright upset win at Connecticut. The Flames proceeded to blast Florida International in a 38 to 6 win. That makes Liberty 5-0 ATS when catching an opponent off an outright upset win as an underdog! They now catch Jacksonville State in that same situation with the Gamecocks off an outright upset win at Middle Tennessee! Look for this system to improve to 6-0 ATS as J-St gets blasted! The Flames are on a 31-11 SU run at the FBS level while the Gamecocks are still quite new to this level of football. Do not let the line scare you. The road team should take this in a rout! Lay it! LIBERTY (-) |
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10-09-23 | Packers v. Raiders -125 | Top | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
NFL Monday 10* Top Play Las Vegas Raiders (-) vs Green Bay Packers @ 8:15 ET - The current spread on this one is as low as 1.5 as of early game day morning or you also have the option of money line at -125. I am expecting a solid home win here. Why is 1-3 Vegas favored? Think about that for a moment. Yes, Green Bay is coming off a down season but Love has been playing quite well at QB for the Packers and they are a .500 team this season that are only a season removed from producing season after season of solid win totals. Herein lies the key, when a bad team is favored over a team that most would consider to be the better team, it is always for a reason. Of course nothing is fool-proof or 100% but I do like this situation and the line and there actually is a stat on this that is on a 100% ATS run. That is that when the Packers are a dog of 4.5 points or less but facing a team with a losing record, they are 0-7 ATS the last 7 times! Again, like I said above, LV is favored for a reason and yes I am backing a favorite that is only 1-3 SU this season! One thing that helps this week is Jimmy G will be back for the Raiders. They are at home off a loss and I am expecting a strong effort from the hosts here. Also, the Packers are visiting Las Vegas and have a bye week on deck. This is not an easy situation for Green Bay to remain focused. I would not be surprised to see a bit of a sloppy game from the Packers while the Raiders should be razor sharp with focus and also excited to have Jimmy G back under center for this one. Look for the aforementioned ATS trend to make it 8 WINNERS in a row! 10* Las Vegas (-) |
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10-09-23 | Phillies +139 v. Braves | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
MLB Monday Philadelphia Phillies +140 @ Atlanta Braves @ 6:07 ET - I have a ton of respect for the Braves and also for Max Fried. However, as I noted on my previously plays about these Phillies they are a very special team and a great club in their own right. Since they decided to use a lot of bullpen in Saturday's Game 1 win, the off day Sunday was very valuable for the Phillies. Look for Philadelphia to not need much pen here anyway though because Zack Wheeler had a great season on the road this year and that included a recent gem at Atlanta as well. Again, Fried is tough but Wheeler is just as good and the Phillies are the defending NL champs and playing with a lethal combo of poise and confidence and also are loaded with talent. Atlanta is a great team and many will back them to avoid the 0-2 hole here in this series but this is merely serving to give us even more value with a superb underdog. The Phillies have won 14 of 19 games and the Braves have gone just 8-9 last 17 games. The underdog with a top hurler on the mound is absolutely the value play here. PHILADELPHIA +140 |
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10-09-23 | Cambridge United v. Burton Albion OVER 2.25 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
Rotation #200937: English League One: Monday OVER 2 -160 in Burton Albion vs Cambridge United @ 3 ET - Burton Albion is on a 6-game unbeaten streak plus they are hosting here. With confidence sky-high for the hosts right now, they will make the net ripple here. However, they have conceded 1.4 goals per match this season as well. That coincides well with a Cambridge United club that enjoyed success creating chances but could not finish for goals in their most recent match. That means an even more determined effort here from the visitors and with each club expected to find the back of the net here I like the fact that Burton Albion has only 4 draws in 11 matches and Cambridge United has only a 20% draw rate this season. All signs point to at least a 2-1 final here the way I see it. OVER 2 -160 in Burton Albion |
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10-09-23 | Sepsi v. Universitatea Cluj OVER 2.25 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
Rotation #206953: Romania Liga 1: Monday OVER 2 -160 in Universitatea Cluj vs Sepsi @ 2 ET - Sepsi has lost 4 straight matches and have had some internal discussions and meetings entering this match. I am certain you are going to see a much stronger effort from the visitors here as a result. However, Universitatea Cluj is the favorite here for a reason and they are averaging about 1.5 goals per match while Sepsi is conceding about 1.5 goals per match on the season. I am projecting at least a 2-1 final here. 4 straight Sepsi matches have totaled at least 3 goals and they have actually allowed an average of 3 goals per match during this stretch! They also, prior to a 3-0 shutout in most recent match, scored at least 1 goal in 14 straight matches across all competitions. Sepsi averaged 1.64 goals scored in those 14 matches and they will be ready to respond here. However, Universitatea Cluj has only 2 losses last 9 matches and has averaged 1.67 goals scored per match during this stretch. You can see, per all of the above, why I am projecting at least a 2-1 final in this one! OVER 2 -160 in Universitatea Cluj |
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10-09-23 | Ottawa +6.5 v. Montreal | Top | 3-29 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 52 m | Show |
CFL Monday Ottawa Redblacks (+) @ Montreal Alouettes @ 1 ET - Rivalry game. Great value here with the big points on Thanksgiving Day in Canada. Ottawa just lost badly to Montreal at home last week but look at the stats from that game and you will quickly realize the loss was a turnover-fueled defeat. The Redblacks actually outgained the Alouettes by a substantial margin in that game. Also, Ottawa still has hopes of a post-season berth so they will still being going hard here. The Als already clinched their post-season berth and are only in a battle now with Hamilton for positioning but that is not a key motivator. I believe the road dog will prove to be the much hungrier team and will be out for revenge after the embarrassing loss in last week's meeting at home. Payback time here and an outright upset would not surprise me in the last. Current line as of 6 hours before kickoff is in the 6.5 range and that is a great value. OTTAWA (+) |
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10-08-23 | Cowboys v. 49ers -3 | Top | 10-42 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play San Francisco 49ers vs Dallas Cowboys @ 8:20 ET - The NFL is the most publicly bet sport worldwide. When public money is involved the public teams get more attention. There are many Cowboys fans out there and they love their 'Boys. That serves us well in cases like this. Take a look at this current line being very nearly just a field goal as of game day morning. That implies that on a neutral field this would be anybody's game. I completely disagree with that assessment. Dallas finally won a road playoff game last season for the first time in a very long time. The fact is the Cowboys often are great at hammering bad teams and inflating their stats in those games but then struggling against quality opponents. It has been this way for many years and has not really shown any signs of changing. Consider this also when assessing whether these teams are equal. Who would you rather have coaching your team? Shanahan or McCarthy? How about QB? Big-game mistake prone Prescott or up and coming Purdy who is off to a phenomenal start this season. The Niners are arguably the best run NFL organization. This team has done things the right way and is running a solid ship. Jerry Jones still has too much say so in this Cowboys organization and that is why they continue to be good but not great! The Niners are built to be a much better big-game team and, in fact, there is another key stat that supports that as well as supporting our play here. The Niners are 7-0 ATS in last 7 home games against an NFC opponent with a winning record. Keep in mind the 3-1 Cowboys have revenge here but they had that last year too when they faced the Niners in the playoffs after losing to them in the post-season before that too. Yes, that was the 2nd straight season that ended for Dallas in the post-season at San Francisco. Revenge is often over-played and the Cowboys could not get their revenge then and they will not get it now. Dallas overlooked Arizona two weeks ago and lost there. The Cowboys 3 wins are against teams that currently have a combined 3-9 record this season. At least the Niners have beaten a couple teams that have a .500 record so far this season plus they hammered the same Cardinals team the Cowboys overlooked. This is the difference of a well-run professional organization compared to a team that does not have the same leadership from top to bottom. This is a value line for the home team in my opinion. Lay it! 10* SAN FRANCISCO (-) |