Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-09-24 | San Diego State v. Nevada -133 | Top | 66-70 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
CBB Friday Nevada Wolf Pack (-) vs San Diego State Aztecs @ 8 ET - The Wolf Pack have revenge here and they have been very strong on their home floor this season. Options on how to play this one include -1.5 at a -115 price or, for 15 cents more, the money line at a -130 price. San Diego State is off a road win but they faced an Air Force team that is 1-9 SU in MWC action this season. Prior to this road victory, the Aztecs had lost 3 straight road games. Also, when the Wolf Pack lost at San Diego State last month by 12 points, the Aztecs had twice as many free throw attempts and outscored Nevada by 15 points a the free throw line. That will not happen again with this game now being at Nevada. The Wolf Pack are ready for revenge here and this a key game to get them right back into the MWC chase for the top spot in the conference. Note 4 teams are 7-3 but the Wolf Pack would drop the Aztecs to 7-4 with a win here and would also improve their own conference record to 6-4. With a lot of basketball still to be played in MWC action, Nevada is still very much alive in the race for top position but this game is a big one knowing New Mexico awaits as well. Having played only 2 home games since mid-January, the Wolf Pack are fired up about being back home for 2 huge home games against the Aztecs and Lobos. Don't expect them to waste this opportunity. Note that the Wolf Pack are 14-2 SU this season in games played either at home or on a neutral floor. Considering that plus the fact the Aztecs had lost 3 straight road games in MWC action before the win at AF, I love the small home fave in this one! NEVADA (-) |
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02-09-24 | Hawks v. 76ers OVER 242.5 | Top | 127-121 | Win | 100 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
NBA Friday OVER the total in Philadelphia 76ers vs Atlanta Hawks @ 7:10 ET - The Sixers added Buddy Hield and Cameron Payne at the trade deadline. Hield is a sharpshooter and they needed a 3-point specialist like him in the worst way. Even if Hield does not play tonight, a big key here is all the guys Philly gave up in trades yesterday. They lost a lot of toughness and defense. They are absolutely a different team defensively today than they were just 24 to 48 hours ago. Of course still without Embiid, the interior defense of the 76ers is already an issue right now. Long-term Philly has been a bad pattern of allowing too many points...even when Embiid was still playing. Over their last 9 games the Sixers are allowing 125 ppg! Now they are hosting a Hawks team that has allowed 128.4 ppg last 10 games and, of course, this is not including OT points. Atlanta is all about play on the offensive end and with the 76ers currently having played more small ball of late, they have been giving up big point totals as well. The value is there with this one likely to get into the 250s given the numbers above as well as the post-trade situation. Not including OT points of course, the 3 meetings between these teams have averaged 243 ppg this season. That is right about where this total is as of 13 hours before tipoff. However, this total should be even higher when you consider the factors noted above and the recent trending of these two teams. The Hawks have had 8 straight games total at least 242 points and those 8 games, again not including OT, have averaged 258.5 ppg. We'll see 250s here at least. OVER the total in Philadelphia |
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02-09-24 | SC Freiburg v. Borussia Dortmund OVER 3 | Top | 0-3 | Push | 0 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
Rotation #202401: German Bundesliga: Friday OVER 3 -130 in Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg @ 2:30 ET - Great spot for an over. SC Freiburg matches are averaging 3 goals this season and Borussia Dortmund matches at home are averaging 3.4 goals this season. The key pushing this to 4 or more (though 3 would get us at least a push) is the fact that Dortmund is off a disappointing scoreless draw. They had scored 2.2 goals per match in last 9 league matches prior to that one. Also, they are hosting a Freiburg club that has seen 4 of last 5 matches total at least 4 goals including 3 in a row. In fact this is a double perfect spot as Freiburg has 3 matches in a row totaling at least 4 goals! Couple that with the fact that the last 5 meetings between these clubs have all totaled at least 3 goals and in fact 4 in a row have totaled at least 4 goals. Those 4 matches averaged 5 goals apiece! Double perfect over angles put to the test in this one! OVER 3 -130 in Borussia Dortmund |
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02-09-24 | Universitatea Cluj v. CS U Craiova OVER 2.25 | Top | 2-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
Rotation #206805: Romania Liga 1: Friday OVER 2.5 +110 in Universitatea Craiova vs Universitatea Cluj @ 1 ET - Universitatea Cluj is off a 3-1 loss at UTA and it was the 3rd time in 4 matches that their match has totaled at least 3 goals. That meshes well with an expectation that goals will fly here as 6 straight Universitatea Craiova matches have totaled at least 3 goals and those 6 matches have averaged 3.5 goals apiece. Universitatea Craiova will be looking to make up for a 3-0 shellacking in most recent home match but they have allowed 12 goals last 7 matches overall. However, prior to that shutout defeat on home pitch, Universitatea Craiova had scored at least 1 goal in 10 straight home matches and averaged 1.8 goals scored in those matches. Couple that with their tendency of allowing too many goals and the fact that Universitatea Cluj is off a loss and looking to bounce back, the goals should fly in this one! Again, the over is on a 6-0 run in Universitatea Craiova matches and I look for that run to reach 7-0 here! OVER 2.5 +110 in Universitatea Craiova |
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02-09-24 | U Craiova 1948 v. Otelul OVER 2.25 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
Rotation #206801: Romania Liga 1: Friday OVER 2 -150 in Otelul Galati vs FCU Craiova 1948 @ 10 AM ET - Galati is coming off a 2-1 road loss but it was in Bucuresti against a tough Rapid club. Now they are back home in Galati and looking to make up for a scoreless draw in most recent match there. Note that, prior to scoreless draw at home, Galati had seen each of last 4 home matches total at least 2 goals. Those matches averaged 3 goals apiece and that is what I expect to see here. Craiova has seen 17 of last 20 matches total at least 2 goals so it is worth the extra juice here to have this total at over 2 goals. Note that 6 of the last 9 matches for Craiova that did have multiple goals did reach at least the 3-goal mark and many signs point to this one getting there as well. Galati is known for frequent draws but Craiova has the fewest draws in the league with only 3 on the season and that is a 12.5% draw rate! That said, you can see why I am expecting a 2-1 type match here as the visitors have proven to take risks even going for the wins rather than settling for draws. OVER 2 -150 in Otelul Galati |
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02-08-24 | Cavs v. Nets OVER 224 | Top | 118-95 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
NBA Thursday OVER 224 in Brooklyn Nets vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 7:40 ET - With Cleveland in a back to back and Brooklyn missing a few players for this one, this total has ticked down. The result is line value on the over. Note that the Cavaliers are a red hot 15-1 last 16 games. Being in a B2B here will not slow them down. Cleveland is off a low-scoring win at Washington yesterday but the game still hit 220 which is not far from tonight's total. The Cavaliers, prior to scoring only 114 against the Wizards, had scored an average of 121 ppg their last 10 games. Thursday's line is a -6 at Brooklyn. Could this game end 121-115 given these numbers? Absolutely and I do expect Brooklyn to bounce back at home off a couple of low-scoring home losses. Knowing the Cavs are in a back to back spot, the Nets will likely elect to push the tempo a little bit more in this one and wear down Cleveland as the game goes on. Even with guys out, the Nets still have plenty of scoring firepower with guys like Bridges, Thomas, Dinwiddie and Claxton. Also, O'Neale has been used more the past two games and averaged 16.5 ppg. The Nets scored 60 points in the 2nd half of their home loss to Dallas Tuesday and they will start faster this time around after a slow start versus the Mavs in that game. 4 of Brooklyn's last 5 games have totaled at least 226 points and the Nets had some high-scoring performances in those. They bounce back off the B2B home losses but the Cavaliers stay red hot and that ultimately pushes this game over the total and into the 230s per my projections here. OVER 224 in Brooklyn |
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02-08-24 | Flames v. Devils OVER 6.5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
NHL Thursday OVER 6.5 -105 in New Jersey Devils vs Calgary Flames @ 7:07 ET - Flames off 4-1 upset win at Boston. Markstrom has been strong in goal last two games but this followed allowing 4 goals in B2B games and this Devils team is dangerous in the offensive zone. The issue for New Jersey is that they continue to allow too many goals. They have given 4.6 goals per game in their last 5 games. But they are off a 5-3 win and have scored 3.5 goals per game last 6 games. Their last 9 homes have averaged 7.7 goals per game and there is nothing average about that. Vanecek has allowed an average of 4 goals per game in last 3 starts. This game looks like a match-up that has strong odds off each team getting to the 3-goal mark and, of course, that would guarantee us of nothing less than a 4-3 final here. OVER 6.5 -105 in New Jersey |
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02-08-24 | Avalanche v. Hurricanes OVER 6.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 104 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
NHL Thursday OVER 6.5 +105 in Carolina Hurricanes vs Colorado Avalanche @ 7:07 ET - The Avalanche are hungry here to get back on track as they are off B2B losses since the break. They did lose 5-3 in most recent defeat and that continued a high-scoring trend in Avs games. Colorado has seen 11 of last 14 games total at least 7 goals! As for Carolina, they are also hungry off a loss as the Canes lost at home to a tough Canucks team in most recent action. Before that loss, the Hurricanes had won 3 straight games and scored 3 goals in all 3. Yes they have some good goals against numbers lately but this Colorado team is one of the strongest in the league in the offensive zone. They will pressure the Canes here and force a higher-scoring affair here. The Canes have the talent to make the Avs pay for being aggressive however. Couple that with the fact Avalanche goalie Georgiev has been a little up and down and you have the perfect scenario here for plenty of goals. Georgiev has allowed 3.5 goals per game in his last 18 road appearances. The Avalanche have scored 4 goals per game over their last 24 games! This game looks like a match-up that has strong odds off each team getting to the 3-goal mark and, of course, that would guarantee us of nothing less than a 4-3 final here. OVER 6.5 +105 in Carolina |
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02-08-24 | Drexel v. NC-Wilmington OVER 137.5 | Top | 56-75 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
Rotation #777: CBB Thursday OVER 137.5 in NC-Wilmington Seahawks vs Drexel Dragons @ 7 ET - Drexel is a slower paced team but, even with that, their games have averaged 137 points this season. I expect NC-Wilmington on their home floor to dictate the tempo in this one. Seahawks games averaged 153 ppg this season! Also, this is a revenge spot for the Seahawks and the first game totaled 141 points despite the Seahawks making just 6 of 30 from three point land! Speaking of 20% three-point shooting, the Dragons are off a horrible 4 of 20 performance from downtown in their most recent game, a tight loss at Monmouth. Drexel has done a great job bouncing back from losses this season but the Seahawks are out for revenge on their home floor. I expect a back and forth high-scoring battle here given all of the above. The Dragons have gone 6-1 this season when off a loss and scored an average of 75 ppg in the 6 victories. The Seahawks have won 7 of 8 games and scored an average of 77.4 ppg in the 7 victories. We don't need 75 to 77 apiece here in this one but the fact is solid odds on each team reaching the 70 mark in this one and that puts this one into the 140s. Drexel has scored an average of 77 ppg L6 road games even including the poor shooting effort at Monmouth in most recent game. The Seahawks have allowed 69 ppg L7 games (not including OT of course) so Drexel getting to 70 here is not a big ask and yet the home team is also favored with good reason. Value on the over with this low total. Each of last 3 meetings between these clubs have totaled over 140 and each of Seahawks L3 home games have totaled over 145 points! OVER 137.5 in NC-Wilmington |
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02-08-24 | Iowa v. Penn State | Top | 79-89 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
Rotation #775: CBB Thursday Iowa Hawkeyes Pick'em or -1 at Penn State Nittany Lions @ 7 ET - The Hawkeyes are 2-5 SU in true road games this season while Penn State is 8-3 in true home games this season. That said this line must be a huge mistake, right? Not at all actually as Iowa's most recent road loss - which I fully expect they will bounce back from here - is their only road loss against an unranked foe this season. Their 4 prior losses in true road games were to Wisconsin, Purdue, Iowa State and Creighton! All of those teams are Top 25 teams. I love the situation here with the Hawkeyes having lost their most recent road game and catching Penn State off B2B wins. Note the only time this season the Nittany Lions have won more than 2 in a row was way back at the beginning of the season. Penn State started the season 4-0 but faced a bunch of cupcake opponents. The oddsmakers have this game with Iowa at a pick'em or -1 with good reason and I look for the Hawkeyes to have too much offense for the Nittany Lions in this one. Yes, Penn State has that signature home win over Wisconsin but upsets do happen at times when everything comes into place in one game. Other than this, the Nittany Lions other 4 Big Ten wins have come against teams that currently have a combined 16-31 Big Ten record on the season. Penn State, other than the upset of Wisconsin, has gone 3-2 L5 home games but with wins over a struggling Ohio State team and non-conference home wins over Rider and Le Moyne! Remember Iowa lost here last year so they have plenty of motivation here and though the Hawkeyes appear on track for an overall season comparable to last year, the Nittany Lions have regressed and were 9-11 this season prior to the B2B wins. The road team gets it done here. IOWA Pick'em or -1 |
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02-08-24 | Benfica v. Vizela OVER 3 | Top | 2-1 | Push | 0 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
Rotation #220213: Taca de Portugal | Quarter-Finals: Thursday OVER 3 -120 in Vizela vs Benfica @ 3:45 ET - These two clubs are from the Primeira Liga, the top league in Portugal. Vizela is at the bottom of the table in league action and Benfica is at the very top. However, Vizela does usually get on the board at least once when they are at home. Also, Benfica is favored by 1.5 goal on the goal line in this one with good reason of course. That said, a 3-1 type final absolutely looks like a good estimate in this one and yet we have the added insurance of the posted total on this one available at 3 goals so landing on 3 would still earn us a push. The fact is I fully expect 4 or more here. When Vizela has matched up this season with top scoring clubs like Benfica and Sporting Lisbon and Braga, the goals have been flying. They have faced those clubs a combined 4 times and all 3 matches totaled at least 3 goals and the matches actually averaged 4.8 goals apiece! More of the same here as Vizela ready to respond off a rare home shutout while Benfica has scored at least 3 goals in 6 of last 7 matches and will absolutely be ready to flex their muscles against the lowest club in the table. The visitors will be relentless on the attack and I anticipate a 3-1 or 3-2 type match here! OVER 3 -120 in Vizela |
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02-08-24 | AS Monaco v. Rouen OVER 3 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -135 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
Rotation #203629: Coupe de France | Round of 16: Thursday OVER 3 -135 in Rouen vs AS Monaco @ 2:45 ET - Yes we have to lay some juice here to have the over 3 but this is a huge value in a match where I expect the goals to come early and often. Rouen is from a lower-tier than AS Monaco and Rouen has been the surprise in this competition. Now the competition stiffens in a big way however and I expect Rouen to struggle to contain AS Monaco. The fact this match is at Rouen helps the over! AS Monaco is from the top league in France and in their Ligue 1 matches they have averaged both scoring AND conceding 2 goals per match when away from home! I do expect Rouen to get on the board in this one and the hosts are coming off a 3-3 thriller with Toulouse which they then won on penalty kicks. Note that Toulouse is also from Ligue 1 yet they are allowing only 1.35 goals per match on the season. So the fact Rouen put 3 past them is impressive. I expect the high-scoring ways to continue for the host but AS Monaco will also be so tough to slow down. Only league-leading Paris-Saint German has scored more goals than AS Monaco in league action. AS Monaco is favored by 1.5 goals on the goal line with good reason here and this is the type of match that should finish 3-2 or 3-1 and we have excellent value with this total. OVER 3 -135 in Rouen |
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02-08-24 | Gil Vicente v. Guimaraes OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
Rotation #220209: Taca de Portugal | Quarter-Finals: Thursday OVER 2.5 -105 in Vitoria de Guimaraes vs Gil Vicente @ 1:45 ET - These two clubs are from the Primeira Liga, the top league in Portugal. In home matches in the league, Vitoria de Guimaraes has won 8 of 10 and the average score is 2.3 to 1.0 in those matches. Gil Vicente does not fare as well on the road as they are allowing an average of 2.2 goals per match when away from home. However, this is a Gil Vicente club that is averaging scoring 1.5 goals on the campaign. Of course Vitoria de Guimaraes is a solid home favorite here with good reason and they are even favored by 1 goal on the goal line! That said, you can see why I am looking for at least a 2-1 final in this one and those odds are boosted by the fact that Vitoria de Guimaraes is out for revenge after losing at Gil Vicente in the most recent meeting. Note that they should get payback here as they have won 4 straight home meetings with them and those matches averaged 3 goals apiece! Gil Vicente is off a 3-0 loss but this was preceded by averaging 1.5 goals in last 18 matches across all competitions. Gil Vicente had a 4-match unbeaten run prior to a 3-0 loss to powerhouse Benfica in most recent action and I look for them to get back onto the scoresheet in this one but I also foresee their struggles defensively away from home to continue in this one. The result expected is 3 or more goals! OVER 2.5 -105 in Vitoria de Guimaraes |
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02-07-24 | UCLA v. Stanford -3.5 | Top | 82-74 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
Rotation #746: CBB Wednesday Stanford (-) vs UCLA @ 9 ET - The Bruins have won 3 straight games but let's not forget this was followed by a tough 3-9 stretch for UCLA. Included in that stretch was a home loss to Stanford. That will have some looking at the Bruins here with the revenge angle. UCLA, however, is in a tough spot as Stanford is strong on their home floor and the much better club offensively. The Cardinal are averaging 78 ppg compared to the Bruins averaging 66 ppg. Also, Stanford hits 47% from the field while UCLA hits only 42% from the field. Remember too that those shooting variances have a strong tendency to be even more pronounced in the home/road factor as well. So in this case the better shooting team is on their home floor and I look for the Bruins to struggle to keep up in this one. UCLA is 2-7 in their last 9 games played on the road or at a neutral site. Stanford is 1-2 last 3 games but those were on the road. They finally get a home game again and are 8-3 at home this season. The Cardinal are 4-1 at home this season when they are at home and coming off a loss. That includes a win over an Arizona team that is one of the top teams in the country. Now they are coming off a loss at Arizona and I expect them to respond immediately here. UCLA is in the wrong place at the wrong time. Current line is 3.5 as of about 8 hours before tipoff. Lay it! STANFORD (-) |
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02-07-24 | Creighton -2 v. Providence | Top | 87-91 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
Rotation #735: CBB Wednesday Creighton Bluejays (-) @ Providence Friars @ 8:30 ET - Creighton is off a loss and they have only lost B2B games once this season and are actually a perfect 4-0 SU this season when coming off a loss in regulation time. The Bluejays are laying only 2 points here - as of 9 hours before tipoff - and that means most any SU loss will also translate to an ATS win. I like the fact that Creighton had won 7 of 8 prior to that loss. Also, Providence has lost 6 of 9 games. Not only that but 2 of those 3 wins were against Georgetown and DePaul. Those two teams are a combined 1-21 SU in Big East action this season. The Friars, in other words, have been struggling for many weeks now. Also, when they lost at Creighton a month ago by 9 points, their biggest lead was only 2 points while the Bluejays led by as many as 18 in that game. In other words, it was quite dominating and now you can grab Creighton off a loss and facing a weaker foe and only lay 2 points. Count me in! Of course many will look at the revenge aspect for the Friars here but Bluejays are fired up to respond off a loss plus they lost here last season in double-OT so they have some extra motivation here to win at Providence this time around. CREIGHTON (-) |
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02-07-24 | Warriors v. 76ers +4.5 | Top | 127-104 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
NBA Wednesday Philadelphia 76ers (+) vs Golden State Warriors @ 7:40 ET - The 76ers lost the last meeting a week ago and that is when Kuminga fell on Embiid's knee and the latter is now out for 6 to 8 weeks recovering from surgery. Embiid was already hobbled in that game but that finished him off. That is part of the line value here. This line is all the way up to a 4.5 as of 10 hours before tipoff and it is just too much. Embiid had a horrible game when these teams met last week and the Sixers were also without All-Star Maxey in that game. So we are truly getting some line value here by going against an over-rated Warriors team that just does not travel well. They were horrible on the road last season but then shockingly started this season 5-1 on the road. Sure enough, their normal pattern has resumed and they have gone just 4-11 in their road games since then. Here they face a Sixers team that is off B2B home losses after starting the season 17-6 in home games! Philly is without Embiid but the Warriors also have some injury concerns entering this game as well. Also, Golden State off a win at Brooklyn but the Warriors have not won B2B road games since that 5-1 road run to start the season 3 months ago! As for the Sixers, they have only lost 3 consecutive home games one time this season and that also was all the way back in November as well. The point is we have quite a few strong trends in our favor here plus I also like the situational value here! I expect a huge effort from Maxey and the home team in this one in front of a raucous Philly crowd out for revenge in this one. PHILADELPHIA (+) |
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02-07-24 | Lightning v. Rangers OVER 6 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
NHL Wednesday OVER 6 -120 in NY Rangers vs Tampa Bay Lightning @ 7:07 ET - The expected goalie matchup here is Vasilevskiy and Shesterkin. These are two great goalies. However, the Lighting have not played in a week and a half and lets talk about how Vasilevskiy played when he first came back from injury earlier this season. In other words, the last time he had an extended stretch of time off. He allowed 14 goals in his first 4 starts! Also, he has a solid 2.46 GAA at home this season but a 3.26 GAA on the road. The Rangers have the edge here of having a game under the belts since the All-Star break. That was a 2-1 win in OT for NY over the Avalanche and it gives them so momentum here. Also, they will likely be able to get an early jump on TB here as the Lightning will deal with that early lull after a long layoff. The Bolts will get going eventually though in this game and keep in mind they wrapped up the final stretch before the break with 3 straight wins and scored 6 goals in each victory! Long-term 16 of their last 23 matches have totaled at least 6 goals and so the line move on this one from a 6.5 down to a 6 is also giving us great value here! The Lightning are scoring an average of 4 goals per game last 10 games. The Rangers have seen 17 of last 24 games total at least 6 goals. This scheduling situation sets up well for goals. Much respect for both teams abilities defensively and in goal but the situation dictates an over and the long-term trending supports that as well. Both these clubs are very skilled and have dangerous forwards which will lead to high-quality scoring chances in this one. 10* OVER 6 in New York Rangers |
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02-07-24 | Celtic v. Hibernian OVER 3.25 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -57.5 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
Rotation #207071: Scottish Premiership Wednesday OVER 3 -150 in Hibernian vs Celtic @ 3 ET - We have to lay some extra juice with this one but the ability to get the over 3 is offering great value on the over here. Celtic is coming off a disappointing draw with Aberdeen and they are trying to hold off the Rangers at the top of the table. That said, I fully expect Celtic to be very aggressive on the attack here. They will be relentless and this is a club that is averaging 2.3 goals scored per match this season. With Hibernian being at home and Celtic dealing with an injury issue within their defensive ranks, I do expect the hosts to get on the board here as well. However, Celtic is a huge favorite here with good reason and that is why I am anticipating a 3-1 type final here as they are angry off a draw. 4 of the last 5 meetings between these clubs have totaled 4 or more goals. Hibernian has allowed at least 2 goals in 4 straight league matches. Celtic is off B2B low-scoring matches but across all competitions this followed a 10-match stretch in which they scored 2.5 goals per match. They will respond big here and will be relentless on the attack. Hibernian has scored at least 1 goal in 3 of last 4 meetings with Celtic and averaged scoring 2 times in those 3 matches. We'll see a 3-1 type final in this one per all of the above. OVER 3 -150 in Hibernian |
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02-07-24 | Bristol City v. Nottingham OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
Rotation #200413: English FA Cup Wednesday OVER 2.5 -110 in Bristol City vs Nottingham Forest @ 2:45 ET - Nottingham Forest is favored at -1 on the goal line even though they are on the road with good reason of course! The fact is Bristol City is in the League Championship which is a level below the Premier League where Nottingham resides. However, this will not be an easy match for Forest and I expect the goals to fly here. Bristol is hungry and on their home pitch and ready to attack as possession was equal and shots nearly equal when these clubs met at Nottingham Forest. That one ended in a scoreless draw but chances where there and it gave Bristol some confidence that they can match this club. Bristol is off a 1-0 loss in league action but they absolutely got slaughtered on the attack and should have allowed 3 or 4 goals based on the chances in that one. Nottingham is well aware of this and will be aggressive on the attack here. Bristol's prior match was a 2-2 draw and the goals will fly again here. Nottingham off a 1-1 draw with Bournemouth but this was preceded by 7 of last 8 matches totaling at least 3 goals. Those 7 matches averaged 4 goals apiece. The lone exception in that 8-match stretch was the scoreless draw with Bristol. In other words, that was an outlier and it will not be repeated here! The goals fly in this one and, yes, I am aware of the injury/absence issues for each club but the fresh legs of newcomers on the pitch also help drive a wide-open affair here as Santo needs to got his Nottingham Forest group rolling strong again! OVER 2.5 -110 in Bristol City |
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02-07-24 | Union Berlin v. Mainz OVER 2 | Top | 1-1 | Push | 0 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
Rotation #202595: German Bundesliga Wednesday OVER 2 -125 in Mainz vs Union Berlin @ 12:30 ET - This total has dropped from a 2.5 to a 2 and this is offering great value on the over here. I know that Mainz has struggled to score goals at home and Union Berlin has struggled to score goals on the road. But, let's also take a look at goals conceded here. Note that Union Berlin is allowing an average of 2 goals per match when on the road this season! Also, Mainz is allowing 1.6 goals as a host this season. You can see why I am expecting both clubs to strike for at least 1 goal here and then consider that Mainz has only 2 draws in 9 matches as a host this season and Union Berlin has only 2 draws in all 19 matches they have played in league action this season! All of the above means at least a 2-1 final is quite likely here the way I see it. Mainz is in the relegation zone and Union Berlin is just above it so you are also talking about two clubs desperate for getting the full 3 points in the table with a victory here. Mainz lost the first meeting 4-1 at Union Berlin so the hosts are out for revenge here and should fare well at home in this one but it has been the visitors that have been playing better of late with just 2 defeats in last 8 league matches. Note that 4 of the last 5 meetings between these clubs have totaled at least 3 goals and I expect that trend to continue here and also love the added value of this total being available at a 2 in the marketplace. OVER 2 -125 in Mainz |
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02-06-24 | Wolves -5 v. Bulls | Top | 123-129 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
NBA Tuesday Minnesota Timberwolves (-) @ Chicago Bulls @ 8 ET - The Wolves are the much stronger team and this is a reasonable spread to lay. Consider that the Bulls are 8-8 L16 games which does not sound that bad but the only winning team they beat is the Houston Rockets. The other 7 wins were against bad teams like Charlotte (3) and Portland, Memphis, Toronto and San Antonio. As for the Timberwolves, like Chicago, they also have a recent win over Houston and actually beat them twice during their current 11-6 run. The difference between Minny's wins and the Bulls wins however is the fact that Minnesota also has beaten Dallas, OKC, Brooklyn, the Clippers and Orlando during this solid run. Until Chicago truly proves they can step up against top tier competition, that is the big difference between these teams. Also, the T-Wolves are the much healthier team entering this match-up. This line is currently a 5 as of about 8 hours before tipoff. Lay it! MINNESOTA (-) |
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02-06-24 | Dayton v. St. Joe's +2 | Top | 94-79 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
CBB Tuesday St Joseph's Hawks (+) vs Dayton Flyers @ 8 ET - This is a Triple Revenge spot for St Joe's. Not only did they lose the most recent meeting in Philly and in Dayton but also they lost in a neutral site venue last March which knocked them out of the Atlantic Ten tourney. That said, don't let the line on this A-10 match-up fool you on Tuesday. Why is a ranked team that is 18-3 this season and 8-1 in conference action laying just a bucket against a team that is only 5-4 in A-10 action this season? Exactly! The fact is that the Hawks are heating up and they are playing their best basketball of the season and their big man is starting to become a true gamechanger at both ends of the floor also. The play on the wings was already solid for St Joseph's but now that they have the interior presence coming to full strength, they are looking more and more solid with each game. The Hawks have won 5 of 6 games overall and, with only 2 exceptions this entire season (both 3 point losses), they have been unbeatable at home. They also took Kentucky to OT earlier this season and the Wildcats are also a ranked team like Dayton and that game was at Kentucky! The Flyers lost their most recent road game and the Hawks have the edge of a 3rd straight game in Philly as their last "road" was at LaSalle here in Philly as well. Don't let this line lead you astray. This one has upset and revenge written all over it! The line is currently a 2 as of about 9 hours before tipoff. We'll grab the bucket but should not need it! ST JOSEPH'S (+) |
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02-06-24 | Avalanche v. Devils OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
NHL Tuesday OVER 6.5 -115 in New Jersey Devils vs Colorado Avalanche @ 7:35 ET - The Avalanche lost yesterday in OT to the Rangers. Colorado is sure to bring a strong effort here coming off that loss. However, this B2B spot puts their goalie situation in a tough position. Georgiev was in between the pipes last night and that means he either has to go again in a B2B spot which is NOT something he has done this season OR the Avs have to call up on Justus Annunen. Note that Annunen has played well at the AHL level this season but this is still a guy with very little NHL experience. Annunen has played in just 5 NHL games and he has an ugly 3.94 GAA in those outings. The Avalanche skaters have an advantage here too however as they played last night and will be ready to attack a Devils defense that could be lethargic here coming off the break. Adding to the expectation of goals here is that New Jersey was giving up piles of goals before the break. The Devils allowed an average of 5 goals per game in their final 4 games before the break! Two strong scoring clubs and ideal situation to expect goalie struggles means easy over here. OVER 6.5 -115 in New Jersey |
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02-06-24 | Flyers +180 v. Panthers | Top | 2-1 | Win | 180 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
NHL Tuesday Philadelphia Flyers +180 @ Florida Panthers @ 7 ET - The last thing Florida needed was the All-Star break as they had won 4 straight. Conversely, the Flyers had lost 5 straight and needed the time off. A lot of times you will see a role reversal in a situation like this and Philadelphia is poised for a big dog upset here. The Flyers won 2 of the 3 meetings last season against this Florida club that ended up in the Stanley Cup Finals versus Vegas. Also, Florida has actually lost 4 of last 5 games on home ice! Taking the road team in Panthers games would have netted you an 11-2 run last 13 games! The Flyers needed a chance to hit the reset button provided by the All-Star break and it actually is good they are away from Philly and a chance to get back on track here. Believe it or not the Flyers have as many road wins as the Panthers have home wins this season! When you consider all these factors plus the fact Philly coach Tortorella knows Florida goalie Bobrovsky well from his time coaching him in Columbus, don't be surprised when the Flyers pull off the big dog upset in this one! PHILADELPHIA +180 |
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02-06-24 | Sheffield Wednesday v. Coventry City OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
Rotation #200401: English FA Cup: Tuesday OVER 2.5 -135 in Coventry City vs Sheffield Wednesday @ 2:45 ET - Sheffield Wednesday is known for struggling to score and this particularly true away from home. However, they are in the relegation zone in League Championship and they know that a date with a sixth-tier Maidstone United club awaits here in FA Cup action if they can win this match. They will go all out here for sure and I expect that to result in at least 1 goal scored for the underdogs. However, Coventry City is a pricey money line favorite at home with good reason and they have actually scored at least 2 goals in each of last 5 matches on their home pitch. 7 of their last 8 matches overall across all competitions have totaled at least 3 goals and the only one that did not was the 1-1 draw with Sheffield Wednesday in their first leg of this FA Cup tie. Their other 7 recent matches have averaged 4 goals and I am expecting this one to get to at least 3 goals as the hosts also take advantage of facing an 18-year old goalkeeper and now know his tendencies after the first meeting. Sheffield Wednesday can not use their top goalkeeper here so the 18-year old gets the call again. OVER 2.5 -135 in Coventry City |
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02-06-24 | Ross County FC v. Motherwell FC OVER 2.25 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
Rotation #207051: Scottish Premiership: Tuesday OVER 2.5 +115 in Motherwell vs Ross County @ 2:45 ET - There are a dozen clubs in the top league and Scotland and only one club has allowed more goals on the road than Ross County. Also, no club in the league has allowed more goals on their home pitch than Motherwell. When you consider those facts, this truly is a bargain total at plus money on the over 2.5 goals. Yes, I fully understand Ross County has struggled to score goals but Motherwell has allowed at least 1 goal in 19 of last 20 matches! Also, Ross County has scored 3 goals in each of the last two meetings with Motherwell! Ross County has allowed at least 1 goal in 8 straight matches and actually allowed an average of 2 goals per match during this stretch. You can see why odds favor each club scoring here and Motherwell only has a 33% draw rate as a host and Ross County has only a 32% draw rate on the season. Considering that as well as all of the above, you can see why I am projecting at least a 2-1 final here. OVER 2.5 +115 in Motherwell |
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02-06-24 | Reading v. Stevenage FC OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
Rotation #200861: English League One: Tuesday OVER 2.5 -115 in Stevenage vs Reading @ 2:45 ET - In League One action, Reading has scored at least 1 goal in 15 of last 16 matches! Stevenage is hosting this one and, of course, is favored for a reason. Given these facts you can see why I am already leaning toward a 2-1 final here and feel strongly we'll see plenty of scoring in this one. League One Football in England is right under the League Championship which is the one that promoted clubs directly the English Premier League. The point is that this is still quality football at this level and I like the current trending of both these clubs entering this one as Stevenage enters this one on a winning streak and Reading enters this one on an unbeaten streak. Note that Reading has seen it's last 20 league matches average 3.2 goals apiece and almost all of those matches have seen Reading both scoring and conceding. Note that Stevenage has just a 25% draw rate this season so you can see why I am expecting at least a 2-1 final in this one. Note that Stevenage has scored at least 1 goal in 14 straight League One matches and this includes averaging 2 goals per match in last 6 league matches as a host. There have been 8 goals scored in the last 3 meetings between these clubs and we have a great shot at 3 or more in this one as well! OVER 2.5 -115 in Stevenage |
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02-05-24 | Mavs v. 76ers OVER 242.5 | Top | 118-102 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
NBA Monday OVER the total in Philadelphia 76ers vs Dallas Mavericks @ 7:10 ET - This total is in the 242.5 range as of 11 hours before tipoff. Philly is without Embiid now and that really opens things up in the paint. They tend to play more of a small ball fast paced style when Embiid is not available. That means plenty of scoring both ways! As for the Mavericks, Irving is probable tonight and Doncic is questionable. I expect both to play in this game but either way I do like the over plenty in this one. Note that the Mavericks have allowed an average of 125 ppg last 12 games so don't let the big total scare you away here! The 76ers have allowed 125 ppg last 7 games. The line on this is around a pick'em. In other words 126-125 type game here is not only possible it is probable given numbers like this. Look for both teams to get into the 125 to 130 range here in a typical wide-open non-conference affair played with plenty of pace and continued struggles defensively from both clubs. OVER the total in Philadelphia |
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02-05-24 | Islanders v. Maple Leafs OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
NHL Monday OVER 6.5 -110 in Toronto Maple Leafs vs New York Islanders @ 7:07 ET - NHL made it a staggered All Star break this season so that some of the first teams back were also the first ones to wrap up their action before the break. That means even though the All-Star game just happened on Saturday and today is only Monday, you are still talking about teams that have been off for more than a week. A lot of times when this happens you'll see some sloppy exchanges of the puck and turnovers created which lead to extra high-quality scoring chances or odd man rushes. So, in some of the matches after the break, I will be looking for overs right out of the gate and this is one of them. The Islanders and Maple Leafs are meeting for the third time this season and each of the first two meetings 4-3 finals in OT. I again look for each team to get to 3 goals in this one and that would of course mean the game gets to at least a 4-3 final. Note that both these clubs are solid on the power play but sub-par on the penalty kill. Also, the Leafs won a 1-0 battle with Jets in most recent home game but allowed an average of about 4 goals in their 6 home games leading into that one. The Islanders are mired in a stretch that has seen them lose 9 of 11 because they have allowed about 4 goals per game in those 11 games. You can see why I am expecting at least 3 apiece when you look at numbers like that and then factor in the potential for some high-quality scoring chances given the post-break situation noted above as well. OVER 6.5 -110 in Toronto |
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02-05-24 | Avalanche v. Rangers OVER 6.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
NHL Monday OVER 6.5 -100 in New York Rangers vs Colorado Avalanche @ 7:07 ET - NHL made it a staggered All Star break this season so that some of the first teams back were also the first ones to wrap up their action before the break. That means even though the All-Star game just happened on Saturday and today is only Monday, you are still talking about teams that have been off for more than a week. A lot of times when this happens you'll see some sloppy exchanges of the puck and turnovers created which lead to extra high-quality scoring chances or odd man rushes. So, in some of the matches after the break, I will be looking for overs right out of the gate and this is one of them. Both these clubs have great power plays. Also, the Avalanche are one of the highest scoring teams in the league. The Rangers scoring has been a little more up and down but they are still one of the more dangerous clubs in the league in terms of skilled personnel and they also have momentum from a 7-2 win right before the break. Colorado has seen 10 of last 12 games total at least 7 goals. The Rangers have averaged 3.6 goals scored in last 13 home games. The Rangers have either scored or allowed 5 goals in 5 of last 7 games! That said, you can see why I am expecting at least 3 apiece when you look at numbers like the above and then factor in the potential for some high-quality scoring chances given the post-break situation noted above as well. OVER 6.5 -100 in New York Rangers |
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02-05-24 | Miami-FL +6 v. Virginia | Top | 38-60 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
CBB Monday Miami Hurricanes (+) @ Virginia Cavaliers @ 7 ET - Certainly I have plenty of respect for Virginia and they are arguably the best team defensively in the nation. However, there is line value here with a live dog catching about a half-dozen points against a Cavaliers team that has had a somewhat friendly ACC schedule so far. Virginia has played 11 conference games so far and 4 of them were against Louisville and Notre Dame and each of those teams are 2-9 in ACC action! Also, the Cavs have played Georgia Tech who is 3-8 and NC State who is 4-6 as well as Syracuse and Virginia Tech and each of those teams is 5-6 in ACC action. So that leaves 3 games against teams that currently (like Miami) have a winning record in ACC action. Those 3 games saw Virginia lose by double digits at Wake Forest and at NC State! They did win the rematch with the Wolfpack here but that 6-point win was in OT. The fact is that Virginia could very easily be 0-3 against teams that currently have a winning record in ACC action on the season and I feel the Canes are vastly undervalued here. The line has moved toward Virginia here so we have even more line value and I am grabbing the points (currently 6 as of 10 hours before tipoff) and expect this to be a great game where the points prove invaluable in a tight finish. MIAMI (+) |
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02-05-24 | Manchester City v. Brentford OVER 3 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
Rotation #200025: English Premier League: Monday OVER 2.5 -185 or 3 -120 in Brentford vs Manchester City @ 3 ET - I am making this play expecting 4 or more goals so yes over 3 -120 is a perfectly fine way to play this. However, you can turn a 3 into a win instead of a push for about 65 cents more in terms of the lay amount at over 2.5 goals so I am mentioning that option to you as well. Look for more or here but certainly getting to at least 3 seems highly likely. Manchester City is finally getting back to full health again and they are rolling. Brentford is a bit outclassed here but they are on their home pitch and will battle hard and they continue to get involved in one high-scoring match after the other! Brentford has seen 5 of last 6 matches across all competitions total at least 4 goals! Also, the over is on a PERFECT 5-0 RUN in Brentford matches in EPL action! I know this match-up has a recent history of lower-scoring matches but also note that City has averaged 3 goals scored per match in their last 11 matches across all competitions. City scored multiple goals in 10 of 11 matches! Manchester City has conceded in 10 of last 11 EPL matches! Also, they are favored by 1.5 goals in this one with good reason. In other words, you can see why a 3-1 Manchester City win has high probability here and I am looking for the high-scoring ways to continue as Brentford's over run in EPL matches makes it 6-0 L6! OVER 2.5 -185 or 3 -120 in Brentford |
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02-05-24 | Farul Constanta 1920 v. Steaua Bucharesti OVER 2.75 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
Rotation #206917: Romania Liga 1: Monday OVER 2.5 -125 in FCSB vs Farul @ 1 ET - FCSB is without a few players but this is one of the deepest clubs in the league and Compagno is on his way out of FCSB so his absence Monday may do more good than bad anyhow. FCSB was without him in most recent game and they still prevailed anyway and continued piling up big goal tallies. This is a huge match-up as Farul is the defending champion and their coach, Hagi, is the greatest Romanian football player of all time and it is his birthday. Farul is going to give a huge effort here on their manager's behalf but FCSB is at home and they are playing with a lot of emotion in recent matches. This is a match-up of two of the top clubs in the country and, though the first one this season was a 1-0 final, this followed 4 straight meetings that each totaled 3 or more goals! This one will get there as well! FCSB has won 4 straight matches overall and scored at least 3 goals in all 4 of those victories! Farul is back on track after the winter break as they have won both their matches and the lone road match was a 2-1 victory. The combined draw rate of these clubs this season is below 25% and I expect both clubs to score here given all of the above and that means 75%+ odds also favor at least a 2-1 final here. Also NONE of the last 5 meetings have ended in a draw. Excellent value with this total at 2.5 goals and a reasonable -125 price. OVER 2.5 in FCSB |
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02-05-24 | Hermannstadt v. Voluntari | Top | 1-1 | Push | 0 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
Rotation #206910: Romania Liga 1: Monday FC Voluntari Goal Line PK -105 vs Hermannstadt @ 10 AM ET - Home pitch has mattered plenty in meetings between these clubs. Also, Voluntari is going to get a boost here with new manager and the hosts are dead set on escaping the relegation zone. Even though Hermannstadt is much further up the table in comparison with Voluntari, note that the visitors have only 1 more victory than the hosts on the season! The fact is Hermanndstadt have been draw specialists. That said, I feel we have excellent line value here with the hosts available at a PK -105 on the goal line. That means a draw at least gets us our wager back. I am expecting the outright win for the hosts or I would not be involved here but the added insurance of a draw being a push for our wagers certainly helps the cause here. Voluntari has won or drawn in 13 of 23 matches this season while Hermannstadt has only won 7 of 23 matches this season! Home club value here especially riding the emotions and motivation of a new manager. VOLUNTARI Pick -105 |
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02-04-24 | Pacers v. Hornets +9.5 | Top | 115-99 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
NBA Sunday Charlotte Hornets (+) vs Indiana Pacers @ 6 ET - The Pacers have a number of banged up players for this one. Yes, they won by 31 when these teams met in Indiana but they outscored the Hornets by 30 from three point land in that one! Ridiculously hot shooting for the Pacers was the difference in that game. I know it may seem tough to play on a team that has lost 6 in a row and is having a tough season but I am happy to challenge the Pacers to win this game by double digits over the Hornets! Note that Charlotte is the much healthier team and they are at home and the Pacers are on a 4-8 SU run. In those dozen games, Indiana had only 1 win by more than 6 points! This is a tricky scheduling spot for Indiana too because it is a 1-game road trip before B2B home games. Could the Pacers "mail it in" here against a Charlotte team they blasted in the first meeting? I absolutely believe that will be the case and the Hornets will be the hungrier team here at home and the Pacers health issues keep this one from turning into a complete rout. This one decided by single digits. CHARLOTTE (+) |
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02-04-24 | Providence v. Villanova -4.5 | Top | 50-68 | Win | 100 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
Rotation #856: Sunday CBB Villanova Wildcats (-) vs Providence Friars @ 6 ET - Many Wildcats fans in Philly have lost faith in coach Kyle Neptune and are calling for his firing. However, the team is rallying around this and fully support him. The reason they are on a 5-game losing streak is they are not quite the same team they once for sure but also take a deeper look at this run! The 5 losses included one at Butler in double OT and was a game Nova never trailed in. Also, the Wildcats other 4 losses included just one ugly one versus St John's and the other 3 were losses against ranked teams including top-ranked UConn. In other words, the Cats are not as strong as past teams but they certainly deserve a little leeway on the tough recent run. Now they host a Providence team they have double revenge against! This is the first meeting between these teams and last season the Friars beat the Cats in both games in Neptune's first season. In other words, this has not been forgotten and Nova also so hungry for a win in this spot and they are at home. Remember they are 3-1 SU in last 4 home games versus unranked foes! This is a game they can (and will) win. Providence is just 3-5 SU last 8 games and 2 of those wins were against the two worst Big East teams - DePaul and Georgetown. Value here with a reasonable line with a desperate, revenge-minded home team here. Lay it! Payback! 10* VILLANOVA (-) |
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02-04-24 | Temple +10.5 v. Tulane | Top | 80-92 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
Rotation #849: Sunday Temple Owls (+) @ Tulane Green Wave @ 4 ET - This line is now in the double digit range and it is just too much. The Owls have a sub-par record but they are fighting hard and there is no quit in this team. As a result, they are hanging tight in many of their recent defeats and I expect more of the same here. Temple is just 2-7 SU last 9 games but each of last 3 losses by 6 or less points. Tulane has the better record on the season but, keep in mind, they have not exactly been setting the world on fire of late! The Green Wave have lost 6 of last 8 games and both wins were by 7 or less points. Also, Tulane is off a tough loss at SMU and have a tough game at Memphis on deck. Memphis was a ranked team not too long ago and don't be surprised when this game, given all the situational aspects, is decided by a single digit margin. TEMPLE (+) |
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02-04-24 | Magic v. Pistons OVER 228 | Top | 111-99 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
NBA Sunday OVER the total in Detroit Pistons vs Orlando Magic @ 3 ET - The Pistons expected to have Cade Cunningham back for this one. The Magic scored 123 points the last time they faced Detroit. The Pistons did not score well in that one versus Orlando but they are back at home for this rematch. Detroit has scored at least 120 points in 3 straight games! The Pistons have allowed 122 ppg their last 9 games. Orlando is known for lower-scoring games but the Magic are facing a Pistons team that does not play well defensively but is at home and has been scoring well of late. This one has over written all over it. The Magic off a tight win at tough Minnesota plus have a big divisional game on deck at Miami. In other words, the Orlando defensive play is not likely to be at its best here against the worst team in the league. As of 8 hours before gametime, this total in the 228 range which is a great value. OVER the total in Detroit |
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02-04-24 | Liverpool v. Arsenal OVER 3 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 110 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
Rotation #200037: English Premier League: Sunday OVER 2.5 -167 or 3 +110 in Arsenal vs Liverpool @ 11:30 AM ET - Liverpool won the most recent meeting 2-0 in English FA Cup action. In terms of recent meetings in EPL action, both clubs have scored in each of the last 3 meetings and those matches averaged 3.7 goals apiece. Liverpool's last 5 matches across all competitions have averaged 4 goals apiece. The Reds are averaging 2 goals per match on the road this season. Arsenal scoring an average of 2.5 goals per match when at home in league action. I know some are anticipating a match played "close to the vest" here but I expect Liverpool to continue to be aggressive on the attack. They have scored goals like crazy, even without Salah, ever since the announcement that Klopp would be leaving after this season. The Reds are at the top of the table so they have some wiggle room to work with here while Arsenal is desperate for the full 3 points to maintain pace so this is why I am fully anticipating plenty of attacking from both sides in this one. OVER 2.5 -167 or 3 +110 in Arsenal |
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02-04-24 | Wolverhampton Wanderers v. Chelsea OVER 2.5 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 34 m | Show |
Rotation #200021: English Premier League: Sunday OVER 2.5 -145 in Chelsea vs Wolverhampton @ 9 AM ET - Both clubs are off high-scoring matches where there arguably could (should) have been even more goals finding the back of the net. We have excellent line value here as all signs are pointing to at least a 2-1 battle here and we can get this total at 2.5 goals even with some extra juice. Note that Chelsea is known for being tough at home and also they have transitioned well under their manager in terms of turning back into a more prolific attacking club after a dismal period. Indeed Chelsea is looking better and so tough at home and they are out for revenge after losing the reverse fixture 2-1 at Wolverhampton. Note that Chelsea will be trying to slow down a Wolves club this is averaging 2.3 goals per match in their last 8 across all competitions. Also, note that Chelsea has averaged 2 goals per match in their last 7 EPL matches at home. The Blues also have allowed 2 goals per match in their last 14 EPL matches! These clubs both likely to score here given all of the above and a 1-1 draw is highly unlikely as none of their last 3 meetings have been draws and the Wolves have a less than 20% draw rate on the road in EPL this season and the Blues have an under 20% draw rate overall this season. 2-1 at a minimum here. OVER 2.5 -145 in Chelsea |
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02-04-24 | CS U Craiova v. Sepsi OVER 2.25 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 45 m | Show |
Rotation #206897: Romania Liga 1: Sunday OVER 2 -150 in Sepsi vs Universitatea Craiova @ 8:30 AM ET - Universitatea Craiova and Sepsi are right next to each other in the table but Sepsi has been on a roll while Universitatea Craiova in enduring a tough winless streak. I like what I am hearing in terms of the attitude of the club entering this one, including manager response at the press conference, and I am confident this road club is going to put up a big fight here in this one. However, no matter how well Universitatea Craiova does play in this one, they are facing a Sepsi club that is playing with extra confidence right now and, of course, happy to be on their home pitch. Universitatea Craiova is off a shutout loss to a tough FCSB club but they had scored 10 goals in their 6 matches heading into that one. The problem for Universitatea Craiova is they have been allowing too many goals and that has led to 5 straight matches totaling at least 3 goals. As for Sepsi, they have had 7 straight matches total at least 2 goals and 6 of those totaled at least 3 goals. So, even though we must lay some extra juice to get the over 2 here, it is a huge value that is undefeated L7 for the host and perfect 5-0 L5 for the visitor! OVER 2 -150 in Sepsi |
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02-04-24 | UTA Arad v. Universitatea Cluj -131 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -131 | 3 h 32 m | Show |
Rotation #206894: Romania Liga 1: Sunday Universitatea Cluj -130 vs UTA @ 6 AM ET - UTA has not scored a goal in 3 straight road matches and 6 of last 9 on the road. UTA enters this match off a win (at home) while Universitatea Cluj enters this match off a loss (on the road). That makes this the perfect situational spot to back the better club on their home pitch. UTA lost most recent road match 4-0 and Universitatea Cluj won their most recent home match 2-1. Also, Universitatea Cluj has scored at least 1 goal in 7 of last 10 matches as a host. The home/road dichotomy involving these clubs is a strong one and the hosts are a moderate favorite here with good reason. Cluj is not an easy place for visiting clubs and we see that again today on Sunday. Universitatea Cluj -130 |
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02-03-24 | Iowa State +4.5 v. Baylor | Top | 68-70 | Win | 100 | 6 h 19 m | Show |
Rotation #789 CBB Saturday 10* Top Play Iowa State Cyclones (+) @ Baylor Bears @ 8 ET - The Cyclones have won 11 of 13 games. The Bears are off a win but this followed a 5-5 stretch and was on the heels of 3 straight losses for Baylor. The Bears certainly have revenge on their minds from losing all 3 games to Iowa State last season. However, the Cyclones look like the stronger team this season without a doubt. That said, the Bears laying about 4 points here is just too much because these teams are not equal on a neutral floor in my opinion. Also, Baylor is facing a Cyclones team that is among the best in the nation for steals per game with 11.2 and I look for Iowa State to force enough turnovers here to capitalize and grab the road win. We'll grab the points just in case but note that the Cyclones are looking to make it 4 in a row over the Bears and certainly will have no shortage of confidence in facing Baylor here. 10* IOWA STATE (+) |
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02-03-24 | Nets v. 76ers -4 | Top | 136-121 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
NBA Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Brooklyn Nets @ 6:10 ET - Yes, the 76ers are without Embiid right now but Maxey is back and lighting things up on the statsheet. Also, this as much a play against Brooklyn as it is a play on Philly. Note that the Nets have lost 75% of their games since mid-December as they are on a 6-18 SU run. Not only that, Brooklyn had 2 of the 6 wins against a bad Detroit team and also a pair of recent wins against currently slumping Houston and Utah teams. So this line is basically saying that because Embiid is out, the 76ers are about the same level of team as the Nets. I completely disagree with current market assessment that on a neutral court these teams are about equal. Yes, even without Embiid, the Sixers are stronger than Brooklyn. Also, the Nets have lost 9 of last 11 road games and one of the only two wins was against the worst team, Pistons, in the entire league! Now the Sixers are back at home where they have won 11 of 14 games and this is a very reasonable number on Philly which has come down from about a half-dozen when it first came out. As of 10 hours before tipoff, this line is in the -4 range. Lay it! 10* PHILADELPHIA (-) |
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02-03-24 | Maryland v. Michigan State OVER 129.5 | Top | 54-63 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 50 m | Show |
Rotation #725: CBB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Michigan State Spartans vs Maryland Terrapins @ 5:30 ET - These teams recently met and the game total just 120 points but it was on pace for 152 points based on a 44-32 score at the half! That said, I feel we have a lot of value here with the posted total on this around 130 points as of about 5 hours before tipoff. I do respect both defenses. However, you must also keep in mind that the Spartans are off a big win over their biggest rival, Michigan, and their defense may not be their best here. Also, MSU is averaging 76 ppg this season and Maryland is averaging 70 ppg this season. As you can see, we have some "wiggle room" with this total when you consider scoring numbers like that. The Terrapins have scored at least 69 points in 4 of last 5. As for the Spartans, against teams not named Maryland, they have scored 66 points or more in 12 of last 13 games! Most of those saw Michigan State reach at least the 70 point mark also. I look for both teams to get well past the mid-60s in this one given the above and that gets this team well into the 130s. 10* OVER the total in Michigan State |
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02-03-24 | Rutgers +4.5 v. Michigan | Top | 69-59 | Win | 100 | 5 h 38 m | Show |
CBB Rotation #691: Saturday Rutgers Scarlet Knights (+) @ Michigan Wolverines @ 4 ET - This line is currently as high as a 4.5 as of about 5 hours before tipoff. Rutgers is off a crazy game in which they made just 1 of 17 from 3-point land. I am sure they will bounce back here. The Scarlet Knights have allowed just 66 ppg this season. The Wolverines have lost 9 of 10 games and allowed 83 ppg during this stretch. I like scrappy underdogs that are facing fellow weak teams that have a tendency to not play defense. Look for the Scarlet Knights to force an ugly low-scoring scrappy game and that leads to a great shot at the upset or, worst case, a tight finish likely decided by a single possession. The points are well worth it here. 10* RUTGERS (+) |
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02-03-24 | Otelul v. Rapid Bucuresti OVER 2.25 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
Rotation #206913: Romania Liga 1: Saturday OVER 2 -150 in Rapid Bucuresti vs Otelul Galati @ 1 ET - You also have the option of playing this at 2.5 goals at as much as a +115 payback but I would prefer the value of getting a push at 2 goals if this lands on 2 so I am laying the price on this one at over 2 goals. Note that Rapid has returned from the winter break with a fire lit under them. They have played two games and won those by a combined scored of 6 to 4 for an average of 5 goals scored per match. Galati is off a scoreless draw but this was preceded by 8 of last 9 matches totaling at least 2 goals! Also, those 9 matches averaged 3 goals apiece. I do expect at least 3 goals here as well but like the added value of 2 being a push. The Galati manager was somewhat respectful but also threw a little shade at Rapid in his press conference prior to the match. As a result, I fully expect Rapid to be especially aggressive on the attack in this one! OVER 2 -150 in Rapid Bucuresti |
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02-03-24 | Aston Villa v. Sheffield United OVER 2.5 | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
Rotation #200005: English Premier League Saturday OVER 2.5 or 3 in Sheffield United vs Aston Villa @ 12:30 - Great spot for Aston Villa to come out strong off a loss. Yes, Villa known for not scoring as well on the road but this is still a club that averages 2 goals per match on the entire season. Also, no team in the league is allowing as many goals as Sheffield. What I like about the way this one sets up as well is the fact the Blades are at home for this one. They do score an average of a goal per match when at home and I am looking for at least a 2-1 final here but certainly expecting much more in this battle. A 3-1 type affair most likely. Note that this is another match-up that has seen a history of low-scoring battles. But when you look at the situation here it truly screams over. Sheffield United, across all competitions, has seen 5 of last 6 including 4 straight matches all total at least 4 goals! Those 6 matches averaged 4.5 goals apiece. Aston Villa, in Premier League action is off a 3-1 home loss to Newcastle! They will be raring to go here on the road where, prior to a scoreless draw in most recent match, 4 straight matches had totaled at least 3 goals and those matches averaged 4 goals apiece. More of the same here! OVER 2.5 or 3 in Sheffield United |
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02-03-24 | Crystal Palace v. Brighton & Hove Albion OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 14 m | Show |
Rotation #200009: English Premier League Saturday OVER 2.5 in Brighton & Hove vs Crystal Palace @ 10 AM ET - Brighton has a crazy recent trend in which they can not score in Premier League matches but have scored plenty outside of EPL action. They will break that trend here. They are hungry to bounce back off a 4-0 loss at Luton Town and they are on their home pitch and 4 of their last 6 matches have totaled 4 or more goals and we only need 3 to be winner here. As for Crystal Palace, they have a leaky backline but have been scoring better than usual as well. This is why Crystal Palace has seen 6 of last 7 EPL matches total at least 3 goals and those 6 matches have averaged 4 goals apiece. I am expecting 4 here but even if we just get to 3 in this one, that will still produce a winning ticket and I like the value on that. We get line value because these clubs have a history of low-scoring battles but the setup here is perfect for the hosts to be relentless on the attack and force a high-paced match! OVER 2.5 in Brighton & Hove |
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02-03-24 | CFR Cluj +100 v. Petrolul 52 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 16 m | Show |
Rotation #206905: Romania Liga 1: Saturday CFR Cluj Money Line +100 @ Petrolul Ploiesti @ 10 AM ET - CFR Cluj responded immediately under their new manager and secured a 4-1 home win in most recent match. Now they go on the road but that helps to keep their line in check here in terms of a very nice even money price on the money line. They face a Petrolul Ploiesti club that will do their best to put up a strong showing at home but this club struggles to score goals. Petrolul Ploiesti has now scored only 4 goals in their last 9 matches! Consider that plus the fact they are now hosting a club that just scored 4 goals in just 1 match! Also, CFR Cluj has won the last 3 meetings by a combined score of 7 to 2. The visitors will continue to get a boost from their recent managerial change and this Petro club continues to get hurt by their defense-first approach. CFR Cluj Money Line +100 |
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02-02-24 | Blazers v. Nuggets OVER 221 | Top | 108-120 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
NBA Friday OVER 221 in Denver Nuggets vs Portland Trail Blazers @ 9:10 ET - Sharpe is still out for the Blazers but what is interesting is that Portland did struggle offensively in the first game without him but what about since then? The Trail Blazers are actually 5-4 SU last 9 games and in their last 10 games without him they did average 113 points per game NOT including OT points of course. Denver is favored by about a dozen points here so that puts this game at 125 to 113 which is well above the 221 total here. I am aware that Jokic is questionable but, if he does not play, a potential small approach here for the Nuggets could serve them well here. That's because the Blazers are playing with a little more confidence now and willing to run and gun and that could play right into Denver's hands in a potential home rout. Statistically, when at home and off a loss, the Nuggets have allowed an average of 110 ppg. In other words, when coming off a loss and playing on their home floor, Denver has shown a propensity to rely more on their offense than defense in terms of bouncing back! The Nuggets are 5-0 L5 home games and average 119.4 during this winning streak at home. Again, look at the spread here, and if Denver hits 120 and wins by 12 that still puts this one into the upper 220s. I am expecting 230s here based on all of the above and the situation. OVER 221 in Denver |
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02-02-24 | Butler v. Creighton -10.5 | Top | 99-98 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
CBB Friday Creighton Bluejays (-) vs Butler Bulldogs @ 9 ET - Butler's most recent game was against Villanova and we had the Wildcats there. The Bulldogs pulled off a miracle with a double-OT win in a game they NEVER LED in regulation and trailed by as much as 14 points in the SECOND HALF of the game. Give Butler some credit but also know that the Wildcats are proving to be a shell of the type of teams they use to be under head coach Jay Wright. Other than that miracle win over a Nova team that is proving to be one of the 3 worst teams in the conference AND an amazing win over Marquette on a rare night in which the Golden Eagles had a rare horrific shooting night, the Bulldogs other 3 wins are against the two worst teams in the Big East. That trio of victories coming against DePaul and Georgetown. The point is that this Butler team is 5-5 in Big East action but I am not impressed. Conversely, the Bluejays are chasing UConn for the top spot in the Big East and they are at home for this one where they are so strong and tend to shoot the ball very well. I also like the fact they have some size inside and this will frustrate Butler and the Bulldogs will struggle to get easy buckets all night long. That is why this is one of those rare instances where I am willing to lay bigger points as this one is a line that is currently in the -10 range as of about 10 hours before tipoff. Lay it! CREIGHTON (-) |
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02-02-24 | Mallorca v. Ath Bilbao OVER 2 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
Rotation #201953: Spanish La Liga: Friday OVER 2 -145 in Athletic Bilbao vs Mallorca @ 3 ET - This one is all about situational value as well as line value. Getting this total at 2 goals is a big value. Also, Athletic Bilbao is one of the top clubs in the league but shockingly has not scored in their last two league matches! In their other two recent matches, both in Copa del Rey action, they have scored a total of 6 goals. This club is more than capable of consistent success on the attack and they will be back to pushing for goals in this one in a big way. Mallorca has struggled this season but having Muriqi back and likely getting even more minutes out of him in this match is a boost for the club. Also, prior to their 1-0 loss in most recent match, Mallorca had scored 12 goals in last 7 matches across all competitions and only failed to score once. So consider that fact and then consider that Athletic Bilbao is favored by 1 goal on the goal line in this one and you can see why I am expecting a 2-1 type match here. Off B2B shutout matches in La Liga action, the visitors have their marching orders here and will be very aggressive. OVER 2 -145 in Athletic Bilbao |
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02-02-24 | Borussia Dortmund v. Heidenheimer SB OVER 3.5 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
Rotation #202513: German Bundesliga Friday OVER 3.5 +110 in Heidenheimer vs Borussia Dortmund @ 2:30 ET - Heidenheim had a 1-1 draw in most recent home match but certainly this has been the exception rather than the rule. Their home matches generally have been very high-scoring. Prior to that 1-1 draw, 5 of their 8 matches as a host this season had totaled 5 or more goals. Also, when they faced Dortmund earlier this season it was a 2-2 draw. They also had matches with Bayern Leverkusen and Bayer Munich each total 5 or more goals! Against tougher top tier competition, the goals tend to fly in Heidenheimer matches and I expect more of the same here. Dortmund has scored 3.3 goals per match this month and the hosts in this one have scored 2.3 goals per match in their last 3 on their home pitch. There is a reason this one is priced in the 3.5 range on the total. Don't let the big number scare you and take advantage of the plus money here. OVER 3.5 +110 in Heidenheimer |
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02-02-24 | Dinamo Bucuresti v. U Craiova 1948 -121 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
Rotation #206890: Romania Liga 1: Friday FCU 1948 Craiova -120 vs Dinamo Bucuresti @ 1 ET - FCU 1948 Craiova is off B2B tough one-goal losses but they faced two of the tougher clubs in the league with matches against Rapid and Farul. Now they face one of the league's worst clubs as they host Dinamo. Not only does FCU 1948 Craiova have just two fewer wins than Rapid and Farul, no club in the league has as many losses (15) this season as Dinamo does. These two clubs, Dinamo and FCU 1948 Craiova, are the two clubs out of all 16 in the league that have the fewest draws on the season. That said, I am not expecting a sharing of the spoils here and, given the situation, this match-up has home win written all over it. Dinamo has gone 1-7 in last 8 road matches and the only win was over an FC Botosani club that is the worst in the league and the 7 road losses were by a combined score of 15 to 2! In other words, this Dinamo club certainly does not travel well! FCU 1948 CRAIOVA -120 |
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02-02-24 | CSMS Iasi v. Botosani OVER 2 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 27 m | Show |
Rotation #206901: Romania Liga 1 Friday OVER 2 -120 in FC Botosani vs Poli Iasi @ 10 AM ET - The last two times these clubs met here at Botosani, each match totaled at least 3 goals. Poli Iasi enters this match off a 1-0 win but this followed their last 3 matches all totaling at least 4 goals! Botosani has seen 14 of last 17 matches total at least 2 goals! Those 14 matches averaged 3.5 goals apiece. Asking for 3 or more here is not asking too much. The fact that even just 2 goals here earns us a push has me pulling the trigger on this one with confidence. OVER 2 -120 in FC Botosani |
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02-01-24 | Cavs v. Grizzlies OVER 215 | Top | 108-101 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 30 m | Show |
NBA Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 215 in Memphis Grizzlies vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 8 ET - When you look at Memphis and the injury situation then of course you start thinking about a tough time scoring points. However, too much emphasis is being placed on that here and not enough on what the Cavaliers are capable of! Also, the Grizzlies are highly unlikely to again make just 30 of 80 from the field like they did in most recent game. Cleveland tends to play higher-scoring games and I could see this game being rather wide-open. Remember too that Memphis had scored 107.5 ppg in their 4 games prior to that loss. As for the Cavs, they have scored big in winning 11 of their last 12 games. The Cavaliers also have allowed 114 ppg their last 4 games. How amped up defensively do you really think the Cavs are going to be facing a Grizzlies team that is enduring a very rough season? I just can not foresee much effort here from Cleveland in terms of defensive intensity. Instead look for more of a run and gun approach in this non-conference affair and that should yield plenty of points. The current spread on this one is 8 and that puts this final at 111-103 in terms of the total posted on this game. But do you really think the Cavs are only going to get to 111 here? They have averaged 120 ppg last 13 games and now face a struggling opponent. In other words, you can see why I love the value with the low total posted on this one! 10* OVER 215 in Memphis |
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02-01-24 | Drexel -4 v. Monmouth | Top | 62-67 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
Rotation #737: CBB Thursday 10* Top Play Drexel Dragons @ Monmouth Hawks @ 7 ET - The Dragons bounced back nicely from their very first CAA loss of the season (by just 3 points at Towson) by coming up big at home against NC AT & T. The Dragons are a very strong defensive team and they are strong on the offensive boards and they are a very deep team. Those are the kind of gritty teams that can win big games and it is a big reason Drexel is having such a solid season including now 8-1 in CAA action. As for Monmouth, the Hawks did almost upset the Dragons at Drexel last month in CAA action. However, the Hawks shot surprisingly well in that game and Drexel did not and yet the Dragons still pulled out the 4 point win. Also, all 7 of the Dragons CAA wins have been by 4 or more points this season. The current line on this one is a 4 as of about 9 hours before tipoff. Monmouth is not as strong defensively or on the boards or in terms of shooting percentage on offense either. They are 4-4 in CAA action but had lost 4 of 5 (with the only win over a bad Hampton team) prior to coming up with a win versus Hofstra in most recent game. Hofstra has not beaten any of the top tier teams in the CAA either so that win is not ultra impressive. Monmouth will have their hands full here against a Dragons team that already tasted defeat once in their most recent road game and they are very motivated and hungry here as a result in their very next road opportunity as they look to add to an 8-1 conference record. Monmouth just 9-17 SU in last 26 conference games. 10* DREXEL (-) |
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02-01-24 | Manchester United v. Wolverhampton Wanderers OVER 2.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
Rotation #200177: English Premier League Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 -115 in Wolverhampton vs Manchester United @ 3:15 ET - These clubs have a low-scoring history in their meetings in recent years and I am well aware of that. However, from a situational and current form perspective, this one is destined to get to at least 3 goals. Wolverhampton has a chance to leapfrog Man U in the table here with a victory. However, Manchester United has been playing better of late and is going to be on the attack here on the road as this has been their style recently since they seemingly flipped a switch. Man U has scored 2.4 goals per match in going 3-1-1 in their last 5 matches across all competitions. Also, I am aware of the Marcus Rashford situation but watch the club draw energy from that with a strong effort here. As for Wolverhampton, they had a 0-0 draw in most recent EPL match but certainly a result like that has been the exception rather than the rule! Prior to that, Wolverhampton had seen 5 of last 6 matches across all competitions total at least 3 goals. Also, the Wolves are coming off a 2-0 win and other than that rare scoreless draw, the other 6 matches in their last 7 across all competitions have seen them average scoring 2.5 goals per match. Given all of the above getting to the 4-goal mark here would not surprise me in the least and certainly we should see at least 3 goals. 10* OVER 2.5 -115 in Wolverhampton |
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02-01-24 | Real Madrid v. Getafe CF OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
Rotation #201821: Spanish La Liga: Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 -105 in Getafe vs Real Madrid @ 3 ET - Real Madrid is one of the highest scoring clubs in the league. I know that Getafe has a tendency for their home matches to be low-scoring but I anticipate this one getting to at least 2-1. Note that Getafe has scored an average of 1.3 goals per match this season so they are likely to get on the board here. Real Madrid is certainly a 1-goal favorite here on the goal line with good reason. Certainly the visitors, scoring an average of 2.1 goals per match this season, are expected to get on the board as well. The odds of this match ending 1-1 are quite slim as Real Madrid has only a 14% draw rate this season. Given all of the above you can see why I am anticipating at least a 2-1 final here as Real Madrid looks to keep the pressure on league-leading Girona. 10* OVER 2.5 -105 in Getafe |
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02-01-24 | AFC Bournemouth v. West Ham United OVER 2.75 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -122 | 9 h 0 m | Show |
Rotation #200173: English Premier League Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 -162 or 2.75 -122 or 3 +105 in West Ham United vs Bournemouth @ 2:30 ET - West Ham has been playing tough defense, particularly at home, but this Bournemouth attack has been strong of late. The issue for Bournemouth right now is their defense is dealing with a lot of injuries and absences. They will be susceptible to a West Ham attack that, even missing some guys, will take advantage of the defensive deficiencies on their home pitch. West Ham is averaging 1.7 goals scored per match as a host in league action this season. They are also allowing 1.5 goals per match on the season. Bournemouth is scoring 1.7 goals per match on the road but also allowing 2.3 goals per match away from home. As you can see, that is a 4 goals per match average when Bournemouth is traveling and I expect more of the same here. West Ham has averaged scoring 3 goals per match in the last 5 meetings between these clubs. Bournemouth with each of last 7 matches totaling at least 3 goals and those 4 matches averaged 4 goals apiece! 10* OVER 2.5 -162 or 2.75 -122 or 3 +105 in West Ham United |
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02-01-24 | IUPU-Indianapolis v. Green Bay OVER 133.5 | Top | 56-79 | Win | 100 | 4 h 12 m | Show |
Rotation #735: CBB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Green Bay vs IUPUI @ Noon ET - This total in the 134 range as of about 6 hours before tipoff. Green Bay a heavy favorite with good reason here but don't be surprised if IUPUI scores well enough to hang around in this one for awhile and that will help push this one over the total. The Jaguars have averaged scoring 75 ppg in their last two road games. However, the issue with this team is they continue to allow far too many points. IUPUI has allowed 81 ppg their last 9 games. So if the oddsmakers are correct, as they so often are, about GB being a 12 point favorite here, that would put this game finishing at 81 to 69 Green Bay if IUPUI allows their typical average. That means we have a lot of wiggle room when you consider this total is in the mid-130s. I do believe GB can get to the 80 point range here. The Phoenix have played 11 games since an ugly loss to Oklahoma back in mid-December. In those 11 games they have gone 9-2 and had only 1 ugly loss. In the other 10 games they averaged 77 ppg and now they face one of the worst teams in the Horizon League. Indeed 81 to 69 sounds about right here! The Phoenix tend to play with a little more tempo on their home floor and I expect that to continue here. 10* OVER the total in Green Bay |
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01-31-24 | Florida v. Kentucky -5.5 | Top | 94-91 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
CBB Wednesday 10* Top Play Kentucky Wildcats (-) vs Florida Gators @ 8 ET - This line has come down from the -7 range down to as low as a -5.5 on Kentucky as of about 7 hours before tipoff. Note that the Wildcats won the first meeting this season at Florida and that was despite the Gators outscoring them by 12 points from three point land. The Cats were an uncharacteristic 5 of 20 from 3-point land in that one. UK still won that game on the road despite the shooting variance. Now they are at home and hosting a Florida team that is just 1-3 in true road games. The only win was against a Missouri team that is having a tough season including 0-7 in SEC games! The point is that the signs strongly point to a home win here but now, what about the all important cover? Well, Kentucky has 15 wins on the season and the 2 point win over Florida and a 4 point win over a ranked UNC team are the only wins they have this season by less than 6 points! As for Florida, their last 4 losses included the 2 point defeat at home versus Kentucky and then 3 losses all by double digit margins! Look for this one to be the next one! 10* KENTUCKY (-) |
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01-31-24 | Bulls v. Hornets OVER 215.5 | Top | 117-110 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 215.5 in Charlotte Hornets vs Chicago Bulls @ 7:10 ET - The first meeting totaled 211 and the next one 195 and the next one 214 (not including OT of course). That said, I do understand that this game has a low total on it. However, it opened up at 218 for a reason and is now down to 215.5 and I love the situational value here with the over. The Bulls are coming off a loss and have averaged 118.5 ppg the last 4 times when off a loss. Also, Chicago (not including OT of course) has seen 8 of last 10 games all total more than 220 points! Charlotte is off a low-scoring loss to New York but, prior to this, the Hornets had one ugly game against the Sixers but their other 6 recent games saw them average 116 points! Also, Charlotte is allowing an average of 125 points last 5 games. Prior to the low-scoring loss to the Knicks, 8 of last 10 Hornets games have totaled at least 219 points. Again, you can see the value here with the low number and I love getting additional value on a total when the line has moved further down in situations where it was already quite low to begin with. 10* OVER 215.5 in Charlotte |
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01-31-24 | Senators v. Red Wings OVER 7 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 17 m | Show |
NHL Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 7 +105 in Detroit Red Wings vs Ottawa Senators @ 7:07 ET - Was hoping we would see this tick down to 6.5 but other than a couple exceptions, this line has held at 7 which also is certainly an indication that there is strong support for the over in this one. The Red Wings have won 9 of 12 games and have averaged scoring nearly 4 goals in those wins. The Senators have won 5 of 9 games and note that 8 of the 11 games have totaled at least 7 goals. Both clubs are off high-scoring wins and playing with confidence right now and the winning team has scored 5 goals in each of the 3 prior meetings this season so look for the goals to fly in this one. 10* OVER 7 +105 in Detroit |
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01-31-24 | Chelsea +1 v. Liverpool | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
Rotation #200197: English Premier League: Wednesday 10* Top Play Chelsea Goal Line +1 +100 @ Liverpool @ 3:15 ET - Each of the last 7 meetings between these clubs, amazingly, have been draws! Now, for us to lose this play, Liverpool must win by 2 goals! I like the value here of having a full +1 goal on Chelsea. I know the Reds are tough at home and I know they are having a much stronger season than the Blues thus far, but the fact is Chelsea has been surging in league action. Also, though Liverpool just destroyed a lower-tier opponent in English FA Cup action, this will be a much tougher test as the Reds continue to adjust to the fact that Jurgen Klopp will be leaving the club after this season. Liverpool did win their most recent home match in EPL action 4-2 but their 3 prior home matches in league action featured two draws and a 1-goal win. The value is with the +1 goal here on a hungry Chelsea side. Chelsea, other than Reece James, is finally getting healthy again with the core group really coming together again. Liverpool is still without Mohamed Salah. Chelsea has played 13 matches in December and January and only 1 of the 13 was a loss by more than 1 goal. The aggregate score of the other 12 matches was 24-12 (average score 2-1) in favor of Chelsea. They have been much better after a slow start to the season and they will make things very tough on Liverpool in this one. Another draw would not surprise me and neither would an upset. 10* Chelsea +1 |
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01-31-24 | Burnley v. Manchester City OVER 3.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
Rotation #200193: English Premier League: Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 3.5 in Manchester City vs Burnley @ 2:30 ET - Manchester City has historically dominated Burnley including 12 straight wins and averaging scoring 3.5 goals per victory! Now they are getting healthier finally and City should put on the quite show here at home and that is why they are 2.5 goal favorites on the goal line as well for this one. Burnley often does struggle to score goals but they have had nearly 3 weeks off entering this match so they have fresh legs and we could see an aggressive approach from the visitors as a result. I am projecting a 3-1 or 4-0 or 4-1 type final here and note that Manchester City scored 5 goals in most recent home match (English FA Cup action) and Burnley's last road match in league action was a 5-goal thriller as well. 10* OVER 3.5 in Manchester City |
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01-31-24 | Brentford v. Tottenham Hotspur OVER 3 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
Rotation #200185: English Premier League: Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 3 -130 in Tottenham vs Brentford @ 2:30 ET - Brentford is a different level of attacking with Toney back in the lineup after his long ban due to sports betting. Tottenham has been adding reinforcements, including Werner, and they are anxious to bounce back after a 1-0 loss to City in English FA Cup action. On their home turf where they are averaging 2 goals scored per match, the Hotspur should bounce back here. However, Brentford is going to put up a fight here on the road. With Toney, the club is rejuvenated. Also, 4 of their last 5 matches across all competitions have totaled at least 4 goals and more of the same expected here. As for Tottenham, their last 4 matches in EPL action have totaled at least 3 goals and those have averaged 4 goals apiece. Also, the last 3 meetings between these clubs all have totaled 4 goals! 10* OVER 3 in Tottenham |
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01-30-24 | 76ers +3.5 v. Warriors | Top | 107-119 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
NBA Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Golden State Warriors @ 10 ET - I took the over last night in the Sixers game because even if Embiid missed that would mean more of a "small ball" type of game and I liked the Blazers long-term scoring trends at home as I noted in the write-up. I certainly was not shocked that Embiid did not play because he and the Sixers caught flak, including getting the attention the league office, by him not playing the prior game at Denver. From a Philly perspective it was essentially a "see, he really is hurt" statement by having him miss at Portland. I really expect both he and Maxey will return tonight. Even if they do not (though I certainly expect at least one will), note that the Sixers are in a situation that has not lost since November of 2021! Indeed that was the last time the Sixers have had a losing streak of more than 3 games. Since that point in time, Philly is 6-0 SU when they enter a game on a 3-game losing streak! In this match-up they are a dog and I did consider playing the money line here but we'll grab the available points which is currently 3.5 as of early gameday morning. The Warriors are not a strong team. Golden State is dead last in the Pacific and they continue to give up too many points. The Warriors enter this game having lost 10 of 14 games. So in this game GS is what I would term a "false favorite" as they are laying points against a solid Sixers team that will play desperate here no matter who is on the floor. We will grab the points just in case but I do look for that SU multi-year run of the Sixers when on a 3-game losing streak to reach a PERFECT 7-0 last 7 as they come out strong in this one. 10* PHILADELPHIA (+) |
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01-30-24 | Wyoming v. Air Force -4 | Top | 83-72 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
CBB Tuesday 10* Top Play Air Force Falcons (-) vs Wyoming Cowboys @ 9 ET - Double revenge spot for Wyoming from last season and they are much higher in the conference standings and Air Force has lost 9 of 10 games! That said, why are the Falcons favored by 4 here? Exactly! Do not let the line fool you. This Falcons team is the better team defensively, stronger on their home floor and they catch Wyoming off a huge OT upset win over Colorado State where they celebrated as if they just won the MWC Championship! The point is that the Cowboys could be flat here while the Falcons are at home and hungry and then here is another big key that might surprise you to hear. In true road games this season, Wyoming is still winless! The Cowboys are not only 0-7 SU on the road this season, they also have lost all 7 games by double digits! That means they are being asked to do something they have not managed to do in a single road game this season - that is to lose by less than 10 points! Considering this line is a 4 that means this is a go-against Wyoming spot that is a perfect 7-0 this season! Look for this one to make it 8-0 ON THE SEASON as the Falcons also catch the Cowboys off that huge upset win of a ranked team in OT! 10* AIR FORCE (-) |
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01-30-24 | Blue Jackets v. Blues OVER 6.5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -118 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
NHL Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 6.5 in St Louis Blues vs Columbus Blue Jackets @ 8 ET - The Blues are expected to start Jordan Binnington tonight. His overall numbers are better of late but those stats were buoyed by a shutout performance against a Capitals team struggling badly to score goals. The fact is, Binnington has allowed 3 or more goals in 4 of last 5 starts and allowed an average of 3.5 goals in those games. As for the Blue Jackets, their goaltending has been a concern as well. Columbus has allowed 4 or more goals in 16 of 23 games. The Blue Jackets have allowed an average of 4 goals per game during this 23-game stretch! Columbus has scored 11 goals last 3 games and should have some success in the offensive zone here in St Louis but the Blues also have won 5 straight games and scored an average of 4 goals per game during this winning streak. 7 of last 9 Blues games have totaled at least 7 goals and this one will too! 10* OVER 6.5 in St Louis |
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01-30-24 | Marquette v. Villanova -125 | Top | 85-80 | Loss | -125 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
CBB Tuesday 10* Top Play Villanova Wildcats -1.5 -115 or Pick'em -125 vs Marquette Golden Eagles @ 7 ET - A number of books have this line at -1.5 but with a little extra juice at -115. That being said, for just 10 cents more it is worth looking at the money line here which is available as low as 125. Note that Villanova is off a game in which they NEVER trailed in regulation time at Butler and led by as many as 14 points in the 2nd half! The Bulldogs rallied including a late bucket to force OT. Then in first OT the Wildcats again looked like they had the game own only to give up late scoring to force a second OT. Villanova then lost the 2nd OT by 7 points and it was a tough loss. Were they on the road again here I might be concerned. But at home and playing with revenge from a double digit margin of defeat at Marquette couple week ago, this is a great spot to back a Wildcats team that has lost 4 straight games. I had to keep looking further back and further back and finally I found out that is has been more than a DECADE since Villanova has lost 5 straight games. Also, the last 10 times that the Wildcats were at home and entering a game on a losing streak of 3 games or more, they have won the game all 10 times. Perfect 10-0 SU mark and I just do not see the hungry Cats being denied here. Keep in mind, the Golden Eagles are just 2-2 SU on the Big East road and one of those wins was against a DePaul team that is now 3-17! Also, Marquette lost to the same Butler team that the Wildcats just to in double OT but the Golden Eagles lost by 7 and they were at home for that game. There is a reason that this highly ranked road team is an underdog in this one! Don't let the line fool you. The Wildcats improve to 11-0 SU when in this situation! 10* VILLANOVA -1.5 -115 or Pick'em -125 |
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01-30-24 | Newcastle United v. Aston Villa OVER 3 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
Rotation #200169: English Premier League Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 3 in Aston Villa vs Newcastle United @ 3:15 ET - I am well aware of the fact that Aston Villa has struggled in the goal-scoring department of late but they are back on their home pitch where they have averaged scoring 3 goals per match this season in league action. Also, they are hosting a Newcastle club that has been giving up big goal numbers in recent league action. At the same time, with their backs against the wall as they have been dropping down the table, I look for a strong effort from the visitors here and project a back and forth affair with plenty of goals as a result. Note that Newcastle averages 2 goals scored per match on the season but also is conceding 2 goals per match when on the road this season. Also, each of the last 4 meetings between these clubs have totaled at least 3 goals and the last two totaled 6 goals apiece! I anticipate a 3-2 type final here given all of the above. Note that Aston Villa is off B2B scoreless draws and will be chomping at the bit for a breakout game here. One of those 0-0 finals was in in EPL action too but this followed B2B matches totaling 5 goals apiece in league action. Newcastle has scored an average of 2 goals in last 5 matches across all competitions. However, they also have conceded 2.6 goals per match last 7 Premier League matches. 10* OVER 3 in Aston Villa |
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01-30-24 | Brighton & Hove Albion v. Luton Town OVER 2.75 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
Rotation #200181: English Premier League Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 or 3 in Luton Town vs Brighton & Hove @ 2:45 ET - Luton Town is a stronger club when on their home pitch and should make the net ripple at least once here as they are averaging 1.3 goals per match in EPL action as a host. Both these clubs are coming off wins to advance to the 5th round of the English FA Cup so spirits are running high. Brighton is undefeated last 6 matches across all competitions. In the 3 victories they did concede multiple goals in each of them but also scored at least 4 goals in each win! Brighton won the reverse fixture this season 4-1 as a host and I look for another relentless attack on the road here. Luton Town can be tough here at home and plus they are off B2B 2-1 wins in English FA Cup action so spirits are up. Luton has both scored and conceded in 7 of last 8 matches in Premier League action. Those 7 matches averaged 4 goals apiece and 6 of the 7 totaled at least 3 goals! More of the same expected here! 10* OVER 2.5 or 3 in Luton Town |
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01-29-24 | 76ers v. Blazers OVER 222.5 | Top | 104-130 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
NBA Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Portland Trail Blazers vs Philadelphia 76ers @ 10:10 ET - The Blazers are in a B2B spot but are finally getting healthier again and I certainly do not expect a repeat of last night's shooting performance which saw them make just 6 of 33 from three point land! The Sixers have a number of guys on the injury report as questionable entering this one but no matter who ends up on the floor for this one, they will be going hard to end a 2-game losing streak and the tempo will be pushed. There have been 4 times this year in which the Sixers were on the road and coming off B2B losses and all 4 of those games totaled at least 242 points. Keep in mind, the posted total on this one as of about 10 hours before tipoff is as low as a 222.5 and so this is a 4-0 / 100% season trend we are testing here in terms of the over given this situation. On the road and off B2B losses the Sixers have responded with a fury offensively all 4 times. With Grant and Henderson back last night and overall better shooting expected tonight at home after unusual debacle yesterday, this should fly over the total. The Blazers had averaged scoring 116.5 ppg in their last 13 home games prior to yesterday's poor effort versus Chicago. This line is 10 on this game. That puts this one at Philly 126-116 given that Blazers average. That puts the total at 242 which is the minimum scored in each of the 4 prior times Philly has been in this situation. In other words, everything is lining up here and looks like a solid value. 10* OVER the total in Portland |
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01-29-24 | Houston v. Texas +5.5 | Top | 76-72 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
CBB Monday 10* Top Play Texas Longhorns (+) vs Houston Cougars @ 9 ET - Grabbing the +5.5 that is currently available as of about 13 hours before tipoff. When the betting markets are down on a team it is oftentimes the best time to back said team! That is the case here with the Longhorns! Texas has lost 3 of 5 and just lost at BYU by double digits. However, now they are a home dog to a Houston team that is very strong but proving to certainly not be unbeatable. Now, I am not saying the Horns win this outright but I am saying that I certainly will not be shocked if that happens and I feel we have excellent value here with the sizable points available. Remember that Texas won at Oklahoma and beat Baylor in their two games prior to the loss at BYU. All 3 of these teams the Longhorns have just faced are ranked teams and, of course, Houston is as well. However, the Cougars have lost 2 of last 3 road games and those were at TCU and Iowa State. Texas is arguably at a similar level to both the Horned Frogs and Cyclones so, the point is, we have some definite home dog value here. UT hungry off a loss while the Cougars could get caught looking ahead to their next game at Kansas. Yes the Jayhawks are down a little this season but they are still one of the top programs in the country annually and Houston entered the Big 12 this season knowing that Kansas, year in and year out, has a tendency to be the team to beat in this conference. Definite possibility of a lookahead here and Austin will be rocking for this home game! 10* TEXAS (+) |
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01-29-24 | Predators v. Senators OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
NHL Monday 10* Top Play OVER 6.5 in Ottawa Senators vs Nashville Predators @ 7 ET - The Predators are not known as a high-scoring team but they will take advantage of an Ottawa club that is allowing 3.67 goals per game this season and coming off a 7-2 loss. At the same time however, I do expect the Senators to score well on home ice here as they look to bounce back from that ugly loss to the Rangers. The Sens entered that game having scored 3.7 goals per game last 3 games. The Predators are averaging 3 goals per game this season and can take advantage here of facing a team that is weaker defensively and in goal. Keep in mind, Ottawa has lost 16 of 23 since they started the season 11-11. Defense and netminding have been the bigger issues. 8 of Ottawa's last 12 home games have totaled at least 7 goals and, given the situation here, this one should add another 7+ goal result to that run! 10* OVER 6.5 in Ottawa |
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01-29-24 | Casa Pia v. Sporting Lisbon OVER 3.25 | Top | 0-8 | Win | 105 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
Rotation #206653: Portugese Primeira Liga: Monday 10* Top Play OVER 3 -135 in Sporting Lisbon vs Casa Pia @ 3:45 ET - Casa Pia is down to their back-up goalie and on the road here against the highest-scoring club in the league. Sporting Lisbon is battling it out at the top of the table right now with Benfica so they will not take their foot off the gas here. Sporting Lisbon has seen 12 of last 14 matches overall total at least 3 goals. Those 14 matches have averaged 4 goals apiece. Casa Pia has had their road matches average 3 goals apiece this season as they have scored better as travelers than hosts. They could get a goal here but they will not be able to stop the home club. Casa Pia has seen its last 6 matches average 4 goals apiece and only one failed to get to at least the 3 goal mark. The last 4 meetings between these clubs all have totaled at least 3 goals and averaged 4 goals apiece and all the matches featured scoring from both clubs. More of the same here. 10* OVER 3 -135 in Sporting Lisbon |
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01-29-24 | Wrexham v. Blackburn Rovers OVER 3 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
Rotation #200525: English FA Cup | Fourth Round: Monday 10* Top Play OVER 3 -135 in Blackburn Rovers vs Wrexham @ 2:30 ET - Both clubs are dealing with a lot of absentees defensively entering this match. That should open this up to be an affair featuring plenty of scoring opportunities. Blackburn is the higher-tier club and on their home pitch so they will not be tentative at all and I expect them to attack early and often in this one. Wrexham will be aggressive on the counter-attack knowing that Blackburn has shown a tendency to both score and concede lately and is nowhere close to 100% in terms of defensive personnel for this one. So Wrexham should make the net ripple at least once here but, keep in mind, Blackburn is a solid home favorite here with good reason. I would not be surprised to see a 3-2 final here but the added value of this total at 3 goals, lending itself to a push should this match end 2-1, is what helps make this one a solid investment the way I see it. 10* OVER 3 -135 in Blackburn |
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01-29-24 | Voluntari v. CFR Cluj -1 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
Rotation #206874: Romania Liga 1: Monday 10* Top Play: CFR Cluj Goal Line -1 -125 vs FC Voluntari @ 1 ET - CFR Cluj is off a terrible result? How bad was it? Bad enough to get their manager fired! CFR Cluj is one of the top clubs in the league but they returned from the break and promptly lost at FC Botosani which is the worst club in the league! Now they are back home with a new manger and will stomp all over this slumping FC Voluntari side. CFR Cluj has won each of the last 5 meetings and by an aggregate score of 14-2! CFR Cluj has scored an average of 2 goals in last 9 home matches. FC Voluntari has just 1 win in last 5 matches and, other than the victory, has scored just 1 goal in the other 4 matches combined! This one gets ugly and CFR Cluj is a heavy home favorite with good reason. That is why the goal line is a great option here! 10* CFR Cluj -1 -125 |
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01-28-24 | Nevada v. New Mexico OVER 153.5 | Top | 55-89 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
CBB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 153.5 in New Mexico Lobos vs Nevada Wolfpack @ 10 ET - The MWC has a lot of strong teams with solid overall records. Certainly the Wolfpack are better than their 3-3 conference record shows. However, this Lobos team is red hot and so strong at home. The way I see it the best way to get involved in this game is the over! New Mexico has already scored 84 points or more in 60% of their games this season. The Lobos enter this game on a 4 game winning streak in which they have averaged scoring 92 ppg! The Wolfpack have struggled a bit in recent games but they still have scored an average of 77 ppg this season. Keep in mind, if Nevada hits their average here and the spread is correct on this one with Lobos about a 9 point favorite, you are talking about a game that gets into the 160s! The Lobos are red hot but have allowed 76 ppg last 5 games. They are not afraid to get in up-tempo games at The Pit in Albuquerque and I look for this one to be an absolute track meet! 10* OVER 153.5 in New Mexico |
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01-28-24 | Blue Jackets v. Seattle Kraken OVER 6 | Top | 2-4 | Push | 0 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
NHL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 6 -120 in Seattle Kraken vs Columbus Blue Jackets @ 9 ET - There is a lot of value with this total at 6 rather than 6.5 and I like the recent compete level of the Blue Jackets. Even in a B2B spot, Columbus will work hard to stay in this game but it will take a lot of scoring from them as they have been unable to stop teams with any consistency whatsoever and Seattle is sure to take advantage here. The Jackets have allowed 4 goals per game last 23 games! The Kraken have allowed 3.5 goals per game last 7 games. Seattle has averaged scoring 3.6 goals per game last 9 home games and they should continue to have success here against a road-weary Blue Jackets team. 10* OVER 6 -120 in Seattle |
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01-28-24 | Lions v. 49ers -7 | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play San Francisco 49ers -7 vs Detroit Lions @ 6:30 ET - I know that the Niners barely got by the Packers last week and we had Green Bay right here and were not surprised by the tight outcome. At the same time, the Lions beat Tampa Bay and covered last week as they won by 8 points. However, the Packers were very hot at the end of the season and the Buccaneers were not. The point is that SF was tested more last week than the Lions have been in this post-season. Keep in mind, the Lions game the week before was a 1 point Wild Card round win over the Rams but LA outgained Detroit by nearly 100 yards in that one. Now the Lions will be playing on the road for the first time in 4 weeks! I respect Detroit and I respect Goff at QB but he has a history of struggling badly against the Niners. Also, San Francisco has a big edge here as they have been at home all month long and remain home for this game. The Niners got destroyed by the Eagles in last year's NFC Championship Game. They make up for that ugly result here! They will not let a chance like this get away again. Also, the Lions pass defense has been struggling for quite some time and we know what Purdy is capable of under center. Other than one horrible game against the Ravens in December, he has been consistent and strong for much of this season. Yes, we must lay a TD here but all of the Niners regular season wins were by at least 7 points and 11 of the 12 victories were by a double digit margin! Last week's tight win over Green Bay merely serving to give us line value. We have the better defense and the situational advantage and line value here. 3 of the 4 Lions road losses this season were by at least 7 points and this one will be too! I respect Detroit and they are getting close but they are not quite there yet. This is the 49ers year to get to the Super Bowl after last year's debacle in Philadelphia. Now they are home and are the more balanced team in this match-up. 10* SAN FRANCISCO -7 |
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01-28-24 | Suns -115 v. Magic | Top | 98-113 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
NBA Sunday 10* Top Play Phoenix Suns Money Line -115 @ Orlando Magic @ 6:10 ET - The Suns opened as a small favorite here but the line has come down to as low as a -1 and now the money line is available as low as a -115 as of about 8 hours before tipoff. Grab the money line in this one as that is the value way to play this one at a cheap price. I don't see the Suns losing B2B games. They are off a tough 2 point loss but they had won 7 straight and 12 of 15 games prior to that! The Magic, on the other hand, are also off a loss but that brings Orlando's run to 7-15 their last 22 games! The Magic play in one of the weakest divisions in the NBA while the Suns play in one of the strongest. Orlando is 6-9 SU against Western Conference teams this season. Phoenix is 9-5 SU against Eastern Conference teams. Yes, the Magic would like revenge here for a loss at Phoenix 4 weeks ago but Orlando is just not on the same level as this Suns team. Grabbing Phoenix hungry off a loss is a superb value here with the way this line has come down. We'll fade the line move and lay a very short price with this money line. 10* PHOENIX -115 |
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01-28-24 | Chiefs v. Ravens OVER 44 | Top | 17-10 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 30 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 44 or 44.5 in Baltimore Ravens vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 3 ET - The Ravens, not including their regular season finale when they rested guys, have won 11 of 12 games! In those dozen games they have averaged scoring 33.4 ppg! As for the Chiefs, in their last 4 road games (not including regular season finale as they rested guys), they have scored an average of 26 ppg. We have solid line value with this total in the mid-40s when you consider the recent trending of these two teams. I definitely respect both defenses but Lamar Jackson is such a weapon for the Ravens and Baltimore is going to move the ball well (again!) here at home in this one! However, how can you not respect a Chiefs offense that continues to do enough to once again find themselves in the AFC Championship Game for the 6th straight season! Keep in mind, if each team just gets into the low 20s here we have ourselves a winner and both teams have been doing this all season long. Look for both teams to be aggressive here on offense as Ravens will take advantage of having dual threat Jackson and a solid ground game while the Chiefs aerial attack did produce over 200 yards passing in frigid conditions at Buffalo last week. Also, over 250 yards passing for KC the prior week in even colder conditions in Kansas City. The weather in Baltimore will be cool but not cold and winds should not top 10 mph and rain would be light. Speaking of light, both offenses capable of lighting up the scoreboard here and that is what I expect to see in this one! 10* OVER 44 or 44.5 in Baltimore |
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01-28-24 | Steaua Bucharesti v. CS U Craiova OVER 2.5 | Top | 3-0 | Win | 101 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
Rotation #206885: Romania Liga 1 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 +100 in Universitatea Craiova vs FCSB @ 1 ET - Universitatea Craiova has both scored and conceded in 4 straight matches and those matches all totaled at least 3 goals. FCSB has scored at least 3 goals in 3 straight matches! Also, the last two meetings between these clubs each totaled 3 goals and the last two times they have met at Universitatea Craiova those matches also have each totaled 3 goals. FCSB won the most recent meeting 3-0 and, prior to that, FCSB had both conceded and scored in 4 straight meetings! So you can see why goals can be expected to fly here in this one and FCSB is playing with a lot of confidence thanks to their high-scoring win streak. At the same time, Universitatea Craiova plays with confidence on their home pitch and they seek revenge for the 3-0 white-washing in the prior meeting this season. 10* OVER 2.5 +100 in Universitatea Craiova |
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01-28-24 | Norwich City v. Liverpool OVER 4 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 34 m | Show |
Rotation #200517: English FA Cup | Fourth Round Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 4 +100 in Liverpool vs Norwich City @ 9:30 AM ET - How often do you see a 4 posted as a total? Exactly! Don't let this big number scare you away. Jurgen Klopp recently announced he will be departing Liverpool at the end of this season and give himself a chance to recharge his batteries a bit. The Reds, at home, will go hard for him here in this one in front of the Anfield faithful. Norwich plays in the Championship League and their road matches have been the highest scoring on average in the league. The final result averaging an amazing 3.7 goals per match! Keep in mind, Liverpool is favored by 2.5 goals on the goal line with good reason here. I am looking for a 4-1 type final here given all of the above. Norwich has scored in each of last two meetings with Liverpool. They enter this match off a loss but scored 7 goals in winning 3 straight prior to that. Liverpool will be fired up off a 1-1 draw with Fulham and the Reds had won 5 straight and averaged scoring 3 goals per match prior to that draw. I look for a relentless attacking effort from the hosts in this one and that should also open things up for Norwich to score on the counterattack. Liverpool should get at least 4 on their own here. 10* OVER 4 +100 in Liverpool |
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01-28-24 | Botosani v. Hermannstadt OVER 2 | Top | 0-2 | Push | 0 | 3 h 45 m | Show |
Rotation #206865: Romania Liga 1 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 2 -120 in Hermannstadt vs Botosani @ 7 AM ET - Botosani is showing signs of life finally with B2B wins and scoring 3 goals in the process. However, now they are on the road facing a Hermannstadt club that has scored 3 goals in last two matches as a host. Also, Hermannstadt has seen 3 of last 4 matches total at least 3 goals and this one should too but we have the added value of this over available at a 2 in the marketplace. 5 straight Hermannstadt matches have totaled at least 2 goals. Botosani had 3 straight matches total at least 2 goals before the 1-0 win in their most recent match. The first meeting this season was a 2-2 final and I expect the goals to fly again in the rematch. 10* OVER 2 -120 in Hermannstadt |
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01-27-24 | Blue Jackets v. Canucks -1.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
Vancouver -1.5 -115 vs Columbus Blue Jackets @ 10 ET - This is a great spot for a home rout. Vancouver has been one of the hottest teams around. They are coming off a loss however to St Louis. The only team to beat the Canucks, other than the Blues, the entire month of January is Columbus! That said, the Blue Jackets are in for a rude welcoming here in Vancouver. The Canucks lost that game at Columbus in the shootout and they will be ready for revenge here. Vancouver is a heavy money line favorite here with good reason but we get line value on the puck line. Note that the Blue Jackets last 4 losses have all been by a margin of 3 or more goals! As for the Canucks, 21 of their last 28 wins have been by 2 or more goals. Here you have one of the league's best hosting one of the league's worst and they are out for revenge. This one should get ugly! 10* VANCOUVER -1.5 -115 |
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01-27-24 | Golden Knights v. Red Wings -125 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
Detroit -125 vs Vegas @ 8 ET - It might surprise you to see the Red Wings favored here over the defending champs. However, Detroit has really built up into a solid club and they are on home ice here and they catch the Golden Knights in the 2nd night of a back to back. Since Adin Hill played yesterday, Logan Thompson is likely to be in goal here. He has been fantastic on home ice but really struggled on the road. He is coming off a horrible road outing and now has allowed at least 5 goals in each of his last 3 road starts. Detroit is coming off a shutout win and rested here. They take advantage of the goalie edge and rest edge here and get this win on home ice. 10* DETROIT -125 |
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01-27-24 | Rangers v. Senators OVER 6.5 | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 15 m | Show |
Over 6.5 -125 in Ottawa vs NY Rangers @ 7 ET - Ottawa off a low-scoring loss but to a tough Bruins team. Prior to that the Senators had scored 4 goals per game in their last 8 games. Their last 2 games have totaled just 5 goals but this followed 6 of 8 games totaling 8 or more! Facing a struggling Rangers side will help to resume that high-scoring trend. Even though NY is giving up too many goals of late, they are also dangerous offensively and will pressure the Sens here. Coming off a 5-2 loss but to the defending champion Golden Knights, I expect the Rangers to get back on track in the offensive zone in this one. Ottawa goalie Korpisalo has struggled this season. 10* OVER 6.5 -125 in Ottawa |
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01-27-24 | 76ers +5.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 105-111 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
NBA Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Denver Nuggets @ 5:40 ET - The Nuggets are at home and this line has gone from as low as 3.5 to as high as 5.5 points. This is a revenge game for Denver as they lost at Philly earlier this month. However, Embiid is so focused when he is healthy and playing this team and he is ready for this one just like he was in Philly less than two weeks ago. It is the big battle between Jokic and Embiid. In past visits here for the Sixers, Embiid either missed the game or played but was not healthy. The situation this season is different and that will be reflected on the scoreboard as well. The Nuggets are the defending champs and a great team but only 1 of their last 5 games has resulted in a Denver win by more than 5 points. We have some value here with a talented underdog that sees this match-up as a huge game. The Sixers know the NBA title chase ran through Denver last season and that it ultimately could be the same story out west this season. The Sixers must prove they can win here. I do expect Maxey (ankle) to play and, keep in mind, the Nuggets have key players banged up too. That counteracts the impact should Maxey not play in this one. The points are just too valuable here in a game the Sixers can win outright if Embiid keeps playing like he has been. I look for another aggressive game from him here as he looks to again outduel a player, Jokic, that he greatly respects. 10* PHILADELPHIA (+) |
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01-27-24 | Villanova +110 v. Butler | Top | 81-88 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 27 m | Show |
CBB Rotation #671: Saturday 10* Top Play Villanova Wildcats +110 @ Butler Bulldogs @ 3 ET - The Wildcats have lost 3 straight but are a perfect 4-0 the last 4 times they have entered a game on a losing streak of 3 or more games. This perfect SU run dates back to last season and I am going money line here. After getting embarrassed at St John's, the Wildcats will be ready to go here. Keep in mind that their other two losses in this 3-game losing streak were both to ranked teams including a 1-point loss to #1 ranked UConn! Prior to this, the Wildcats had won 5 of 6 games including 3 against respectable opponents. This is one of the big keys here because Butler has 4 wins in Big East action but 3 of the 4 were against Georgetown and DePaul and those are the worst teams in the conference. Yes, the Bulldogs did win at Creighton but that is the lone outlier and it only happened because the Bluejays had an unusually poor shooting night. The Jays were unbelievably bad in the shooting department that night. So the point is that the Bulldogs are a bit over-valued coming into this one and the Wildcats are a bit under-valued. We take advantage and the Cats improve to a perfect 5-0 SU last 5 times they have been in this situation. No points needed! 10* VILLANOVA +110 |
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01-27-24 | Newcastle United v. Fulham OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -130 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
Rotation #200505: English FA Cup | Fourth Round: Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 -130 in Fulham vs Newcastle United @ 2 ET - Newcastle has a big rest edge here but Fulham is on their home pitch and will put up a fight here. Newcastle has struggled in Premier League action so they are putting a little extra emphasis on this FA Cup competition. They want it! They have fresh legs and have averaged scoring 2 goals per match last 4 matches. Newcastle's last 4 matches have averaged 4.5 goals apiece so they have emphasized attacking at the detriment of protecting their own end of the pitch. That trend continues here and Fulham has scored 4 goals in last 3 matches on their home pitch. Fulham's trouble is they also are conceding too many goals but, going further back, they have had some big results on their home pitch and have averaged scoring 2 goals per match in last 8 played here. Look for an entertaining affair here as Fulham is down quite low in the EPL table and Newcastle has dropped down recently as well so both clubs taking this match-up in FA Cup action as a chance to go all out and earn a chance to advance! Aggressive style and counter-attacking expected in full force here. 10* OVER 2.5 -130 |
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01-27-24 | North Carolina A&T v. Drexel OVER 142 | Top | 47-62 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 24 m | Show |
CBB Rotation #663: Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Drexel Dragons vs North Carolina AT & T Aggies @ 2 ET - The Dragons off the tough loss at Towson in a game in which they did not shoot well. Now they are back home in Philly and ready to explode on offense. They are known for shooting much better here and they will be able to run and gun against a NC AT & T team not known for defense. The Aggies can stop no one but they do have a big scorer in Glasper. The key here is he was one of 4 guys in double digits in their most recent game but that was a loss at Delaware in which they allowed 90 points. Drexel will win this one big and they are a huge favorite for a reason, but the value rather than laying about 18 points here is certainly on the over the way I see it. Drexel will be anxious to have a huge game at home and will push the tempo against a bad defense. They will get much better looks than they did against Towson. However, the key here is the Aggies have some scoring power and will at least be willing to run and gun here even at their own detriment. This total has dropped to the low 140s and, for example, if the Aggies only get to 65 points but the spread posted on this one is about right, that still puts this game in the upper 140s. I am looking for a 90-70 type game given the situation and the defensive struggles of NC AT & T continue here. 10* OVER the total in Drexel |
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01-27-24 | Rapid Bucuresti v. Dinamo Bucuresti OVER 2.25 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 18 m | Show |
Rotation #206869: Romania Liga 1 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 +105 in Dinamo vs Rapid @ 1 ET - This is a battle of Bucuresti as many long-time fans love Dinamo but Rapid has been the better club in recent seasons and has plenty of followers as well. That said, great atmosphere for this match-up Saturday night in Bucuresti. The last two meetings have each totaled 4 goals. Also, Rapid enters this one off a 4-3 win! Dinamo enters this one off a loss but they had won B2B matches prior to that and scored 3 goals in the process. With Rapid having allowed 9 goals in their last 4 matches played in Bucuresti - whether home or away - I do expect Dinamo to get on the board here. Rapid, however, is a favorite for a reason in this one and a 2-1 final appears imminent - at a minimum! Dinamo has only 4 draws this season and only 1 team has less. So, statistically speaking, the odds of a draw are slim and you can see why - per the above - I am expecting each club to score here. That said, we have further support for anticipating at least a 2-1 final here. 10* OVER 2.5 +105 in Dinamo |
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01-27-24 | Petrolul 52 v. Otelul OVER 2 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -113 | 4 h 50 m | Show |
Rotation #206877: Romania Liga 1 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 2 in Otelul Galati vs Petrolul Ploiesti @ 10 AM ET - The first meeting this season was a 2-2 final! Galati enters this match with 8 of last 9 matches totaling at least 2 goals. There is a lot of value with this total available at 2 goals. Those 8 matches averaged 3 goals apiece and this one looks destined for a 2-1 final. Petro occasionally has scoreless draws but Galati has not had one of those since October! That said, lets look at what Petro has done in non-scoreless draws. Prior to their 1-0 win in most recent match, Petro had 14 matches featuring at least 1 goal and those 14 matches averaged 3 goals apiece. More of the same here and possibly even another 2-2 draw like we saw in the first meeting between these clubs. 10* OVER 2 in Otelul Galati |
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01-26-24 | Stanford v. California OVER 153.5 | Top | 71-73 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
CBB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 153.5 in California vs Stanford @ 10 ET - The Cardinal shoot the ball so well and the Golden Bears are on their home floor and are also a high-scoring team. So you have two higher-scoring teams and the team with the lower FG % is on their home floor where they tend to be at their best. That is the perfect ingredients for an over and I believe this total will prove to be too low. Stanford is shooting 48% from the field and they have one rare exception, a 59-53 win, that if it was included in their stats their numbers would be even more impressive in terms of point totals. In their other recent 6 games they have averaged scoring 85 ppg. The Cardinal have allowed 81 ppg in their other 5 recent games played away from home. I would truly not be surprised to see this one get into the 160s and we have a total in the low 150s here. California also has won recent outlier versus UCLA but their other 7 recent games have averaged 157 points. Last year when Cal hosted Stanford, the game totaled 162 points and I expect something similar tonight. 10* OVER 153.5 in California |
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01-26-24 | Kings v. Avalanche OVER 6.5 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 57 m | Show |
NHL Friday 10* Top Play OVER 6.5 +100 in Colorado Avalanche vs Los Angeles Kings @ 9 ET - The Avalanche are winning consistently but it is not based on defense and their goaltending has struggled too. Georgiev has allowed 3 or more goals in 8 of his last 10 games. So the goals should fly here as the Kings are hungry to get going again and will look to take advantage of this. At the same time, the Avalanche have really been flowing well on offense and that has played a huge role in 10 of their last 11 games totaling at least 7 goals. Those 10 games have averaged 9 goals apiece! As for the Kings, Talbot is expected to start in goal here and he has struggled badly with 5 goals allowed in each of his last 3 starts. Kings off B2B games each totaling at least 7 goals and those were at home. Their last 3 road games also have averaged 7 goals apiece. Both teams trending toward conceding too many goals of late and I look for that pattern to continue here given the Avs high-scoring ways at home and the Kings hunger to turn around a tough recent losing stretch. Just 2 wins in 14 games has a way of getting a teams attention and they will push hard in the offensive zone here to take advantage of the recent struggles of Georgiev. 10* OVER 6.5 in Colorado |
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01-26-24 | Thunder +115 v. Pelicans | Top | 107-83 | Win | 115 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
NBA Friday 10* Top Play Oklahoma City Thunder +105/+110 @ New Orleans Pelicans @ 8:10 ET - The Thunder have won 4 straight games and they have revenge on their minds here too. They lost at home to the Pelicans back in early November. Look for the road team to again prevail in this one. Oklahoma City has been so hot with 26-9 SU record last 35 games and they have won 5 of last 7 on the road also. New Orleans is off a win at home but had lost 5 of 9 home games prior to that one. In other words, home court has been nothing special for the Pelicans of late and, overall, New Orleans was on just a mediocre 4-4 run last 8 games prior to hitting everything in sight in their unreal 153 to 124 win over Utah in most recent game. This low line is begging for Pelicans money but we will not bite on the bait. Not only are we grabbing the underdog here but we do not even need the points. Avoid laying any juice and grab a little plus money with the money line in this one. 10* OKLAHOMA CITY +105/+110 |