Free Play on Steelers +3 -115
Jack’s Free Pick Sunday: Arizona Cardinals +10
The Atlanta Falcons are just not in a good state of mind right now. And with their poor mental state, they have no business laying 10 points this week, not even against a team that’s considered to be one of the worst in the NFL in the Arizona Cardinals. Let’s dive a little deeper into Atlanta’s state of mind.
This is a Falcons team that went to the Super Bowl two years ago and lost to the Patriots in excruciating fashion. Then last year they earned their way back to the playoffs and even beat the Rams on the road before a tough loss to the Eagles. So this is a team used to playing in big games the past two seasons.
But here they sit at 4-9 on the season and with nothing to play for. It has been a challenge for them to find reasons to be motivated every week, and they just haven’t been. They got back to 4-4 on the season with back-to-back wins over the Giants and Redskins, but have completely fallen apart since.
Indeed, the Falcons are 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall. Four of those five losses came by double-digits, and the five losses have come by an average of 10.6 points per game. That’s the sign of a team that has quit, and at the very least one that is just going through the motions. How can they possibly be motivated to face this 3-10 Arizona team this week?
The Falcons have an atrocious defense that is giving up 28.2 points and 387.1 yards per game on the season. They have been even worse at home, giving up 28.7 points and 430.6 yards per game in their seven home games thus far. They are just 2-5 ATS at home this season, and 3-10 ATS overall.
The Cardinals have a first-year head coach and a rookie quarterback in Josh Rosen, who is making strides every week. They are exactly the type of team that even at 3-10 will show up every week. They certainly showed up two weeks ago in their last road game, a shocking 20-17 upset win at Green Bay as 13.5-point underdogs. That’s the same Packers team that just beat the Falcons 34-20 at home last week.
I think the Cardinals are being undervalued off their 3-17 home loss to the Lions last week. But that was one of the most misleading finals of the week. The Lions only had one offensive touchdown and managed just 218 total yards against this very solid Arizona defense. The Cardinals outgained them by 61 yards, yet lost by 14.
Rosen should get some help this week from running back David Johnson, who should have plenty of success against this Atlanta defense. The Falcons rank 26th in the NFL in giving up 131.2 rushing yards per game, and they are even worse ranking 29th in yards per carry (5.0) allowed. Opposing quarterbacks are also completing 71.3% of their passes inside the Georgia Dome this season. Rosen is in line for one of his best games of the season.
Plays on road teams (Arizona) - after failing to cover three of their last four games coming in, in December games are 43-16 (72.9%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Cardinals are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Arizona is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven against NFC opponents. The Falcons are 0-6 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a losing record. Bet the Cardinals Sunday.
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FREE PLAY on Packers +6 -115
1* Free Pick on North Carolina -2
I like the Tar Heels to come away with a huge win at home against the Bulldogs. These two teams last met in the National Championship Game a couple years ago. For North Carolina, this is their shot at showing they need to be taken seriously and a chance to right the ship after a recent poor showing against a top caliber opponent.
On Nov. 28th the Tar Heels went to Ann Arbor and got annihilated by Michigan 84-67. A loss that I think is definitely playing into this line and why the public is on the Bulldogs. I think that was just a bad day for UNC on the road in a very tough environment. This time they are the ones playing at home and it's going to be electric at the Dean Smith Center for this prime time tip-off.
Tar Heels have covered 19 of their last 27 home games overall. They are 14-5 ATS last 19 at home after a win and 8-1 ATS when that win was by 15 points or more (beat UNC-Wilmington by 28). UNC is also a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games when playing an elite team that's won more than 80% of their games. Take North Carolina!
The Mississippi State Bulldogs are known as an explosive offensive dynamo with hot 3 point shooters . They can really rack points up in a hurry, but their D, is not to be underestimated ranking 25th in adjusted efficiency ratings. Meanwhile, Cincinnati is a physical tough rebounding team that leave opponents bruised and battered after meeting them. Their D is what stands out as extraordinary. No team has scored more than 65 points on the Bearcats in their 9 games, allowing opponents to a just 56.4 ppg. Both teams have not faced many strong teams.
Cincinnati did play Ohio State in their opener and lost 64-56.Cincinnati's two most notable victories are against Ole Miss (59th in adjusted efficiency margin) and Xavier (60th), with the rest of their wins coming against teams outside the top 100. Meanwhile, Miss State has not faced much better competition, ranking 226th in strength of schedule by KenPom’s estimations. Last season when these programs met, they're were some different faces in the lineup, but the Bearcats won that game 65-50 at home ,and dealt well with the Bulldogs run and gun style of play . What Im betting on here today is that , this will be a physical affair, and that it will be won in the trenches ( under the basket, and in the paint and at the charity stripe. That is where the Bearcats have a slight edge according to my projections and get my backing here to cover the number. Its difficult to win on the road at an SEC school, but the Bearcats should throw a scare into the Bulldogs. Win or lose here , Im betting this score is close enough for the points to be golden.
Take the points with Cincinnati Bearcats to cover
3* on Michigan
Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take #313 Dallas Cowboys over Indianapolis Colts (1p.m., Sunday, December 16 FOX) Just believe that the wrong team is favored in this game. Dallas has won 5 straight games including beating teams that are better than what they will see from Indianapolis this week. The Colts need to win out to keep their slim hopes of a playoff berth alive and I just do not see that happening. They will struggle to move the football against the Cowboys defense and expect this to be a low scoring game. Dallas has covered the spread in 5 straight games during this 5 game winning streak. Indianapolis is 5-12 ATS (2 pushes) in their last 19 games following a victory in their previous game. Do not miss out on Doc’s Sports weekend football card. Monster runs going in all sports and now is the time to sign-up with a veteran handicapper that has been in business since 1971.
The Cowboys have completely turned their season around.
After it looked like they were down and out, the offense has completely shifted gears with Amari Cooper coming over. He added the value on Sunday as he caught a deflected pass in overtime to help Dallas grab a win over Philadelphia.
They hold value here on Sunday as the Colts haven't been as sharp as they'd like to be as of late. Indianapolis has been sloppy taking caring of the ball and have struggled to cover the number at home.
Grab the points here. Back Dallas.
Good Luck, Razor Ray.
Sunday 5* FREE NFL ATS Play
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Dave’s Saturday Free Play:
1* on Browns/Broncos UNDER 46
The Key: The Denver Broncos have been the best UNDER team in the NFL this season. They have gone 10-3 to the UNDER in their 13 games. And they’ve become even more of an UNDER team now that they traded away Demaryius Thomas, and then lost Emmanuel Sanders to a season-ending injury prior to the 49ers game last week. They managed just 14 points against a bad 49ers defense. But the Broncos are showing that their defense is still one of the best units in the NFL. They have given up 23 or fewer points in 7 of their last 8 games overall. They are yielding only 17.6 PPG in their last 5 games. And the Browns will struggle to move the football on this defense. Cleveland has allowed 20 or fewer points in 3 of their last 4 games, so they are playing well on defense too. This total really seems too high. Denver is 9-1 UNDER in all games played on a grass field this season. The Broncos are 8-0 UNDER vs. good offensive teams that average at least 5.65 yards per play this season. The UNDER is 38-11-2 in Browns last 51 December games. Take the UNDER.
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Washington vs Virginia Tech 7:00 ET
Huskies (+) over Hokies- No. 13 Virginia Tech has commanded a lot of respect with their 8-1 record with a 89-83 win over Purdue, otherwise they have played no school form a Big-5 conference unless you count a 63-62 loss to Penn State. Washington is 2-1 on neutral floors and took than No. 1 Gonzaga down to the buzzer in a 81-79 defeat. The Hokies are ranked 5th in power index but I haven't seen it yet with this game in Atlantic City it negates any home court that Tech needs. Take the HUSKIES!
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1* Free Pick on UNLV +5 -109
1* Free Play on Eagles +11 -110
Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NHL Game #33 Free Pick Dallas Stars Money Line (+) @ Colorado Avalanche @ 9:05 ET - Both of these hockey clubs are dealing with some recent struggles but the Stars, even though on the road, are actually in much better shape to respond tonight than the Avalanche are. Colorado is off a gut-wrenching OT loss last night at St Louis where they gave up the winning goal in OT short-handed! The Avalanche have now lost 3 straight and 5 of their last 7. The Stars, though also having lost 3 straight, were off last night and they have two off-days coming up after this game. This is the finale of a 4-game road trip for Dallas and they want to salvage a victory. This tough stretch was preceded by 4 straight wins and 2 of those victories did come on the road. The Stars also have double revenge here as they lost at Colorado earlier this season and also lost 4-1 to the Avs the last time they hosted the Avalanche. That said, serving up revenge on the road would be very satisfying for the hungry Stars here. Dallas has allowed 3 or less goals in 7 of their last 9 games. The Avalanche have allowed an average of 5 goals per game in their last 5 games. Excellent road dog value here as a result! Free Pick DALLAS
Higgs is ready for Bowl Season and a December to Remember. We closed out CFB on a 63% run in November going 31-18 - The winning continues here on Saturday. Do not miss a single Bowl WINNER. Time to make that SMART MONEY MONEY and sign up for a weekly or monthly package. Sean's NFL is still cashing tickets. After finishing #1 in NFL last year on this site, is still printing money in 2018. Playoff push is upon us, and Higgs went 31-10 (76%) last December. Again, DO NOT MISS OUT. Head into 2019 with Sean building YOUR bankroll -
Your FREE PICK today on the New Orleans Bowl will be on underdog Middle Tennessee State. Appy State loses it's HC, OC, DC and strength coaches to Louisville. The defense is solid, but not sure giving a TD might be a bit steep. Coming in with 10 wins, are they really happy and motivated, with their coach leaving them, to face an 8 win team who couldn't win CUSA? Blue Raiders excited to try to end the year with a win. MIDDLE TENNESSEE BLUE RAIDERS get the call.
Free Play on Giants -2½ -120
This is a Free #NCAAF play on the Syracuse Orange. The West Virginia Mountaineers were hoping to compete for a playoff spot this season, and Will Grier was won of the favorites to win the Heisman. Finishing the season with back to back heartbreaking losses leaves a cloud hanging around Morgantown heading into Bowl Season. When first asked about the Camping World Bowl, Will Grier said: “I have no thoughts or decisions,” Grier said. “I was planning on playing [in the Big 12 championship]. Just kind of taking it all in, my last game in Morgantown. Wish we would have came out on top, but we left it all out there for the fans.” The Orange are coming into this game with a chance to reach 10 wins, which would be considered a huge success for Dino Babers and company. The last time I bet on the Orange, they lost their starting quarterback early in the first quarter and ended up getting blown out by Notre Dame. Here is what I said prior to that game: "This a team that has already proved it can hang with the big boys, last year they handed Clemson it's only regular season loss. Senior quarterback Eric Dungey has been lighting it up with his arm and his legs. He's got a dozen rushing TDs and 690 rushing yards so far this season. The Orange have covered the spread in five straight non conference games, and they are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 against teams with a winning record. I'll take the points with Syracuse." Given the situation, I think the bookmakers are offering a generous number here on the underdog. Take CUSE. GL,
[1%] Free Play on Bills -1
This is a 1* Free Play on the Baltimore Ravens.
The Bucs did their best to play “spoiler” to the Saints last weekend and while they looked “OK” for one quarter, eventually they’d stumble and succumb to the superior team. The Bucs laid everything on the line at home and the result was a 28-14 setback. Now they have to hit the road and face the league’s No. 1 defense which comes in off a tough 27-24 OT road loss in KC. The Ravens will be hungry to return to form and to keep pace in the playoff picture.
Additionally note that Tampa is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine after a loss by ten points or more, while Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a home favorite in the 7.5 to 14 points range. Lay the points.
1* Free Sharp Play on Middle Tennessee State +7 -115
My money is on Middle Tennessee as a touchdown dog against the Mountaineers. I think Appalachian State is way overpriced in this game. They lost their head coach Scott Satterfield to Louisville. More times than not, teams who lose their head coach don't play up to their potential in bowl games, as there's just too many distractions going on. I also think it would have been tough for the Mountaineers to win here by more than a touchdown had Satterfield not left. Middle Tennessee is a good team. While they finished 8-5, they had 3 losses on the road to SEC teams, all of which made a bowl. An outright win is not out of the question for the Blue Raiders. Bet Middle Tennessee +7!
This time of year the NFL can be a bit tricky, even for professional handicappers. I try to stay away from playing teams, and moreover entire games that do not have any meaning. If a team has no shot at making the post-season, I, personally, won't make a play on them. If there is a matchup where both combatants are done, come the end of December, I don't play the game at all. Many bettors tend to over think the situation. For me, trying to rationalize if a team is playing for pride, or a head coach needing a contract extension, or in some cases, a draft pick, is too many "ifs" to factor in. This Sunday and Monday, I have the highest-rated NFL card yet this season, in my NFL 21-3 NO LIMIT, 13-2 DOMINATOR, 21-4 VEGAS INSIDER, NFC WEST GAME OF THE MONTH, and my MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL GAME OF THE YEAR. Let's finish off the regular season with a HUGE PAYDAY$$$
Sunday's FREE NFL WINNER is the New England Patriots.
1:25 pm pst.
Yes, New England lost last week's matchup in Miami, 34-33. But, in all honesty, they haven't fared too well there, going 1-5 SU the last six at Hard Rock Stadium. One thing about the Patriots....they are money in bounce back situations, going 45-19-1 ATS the L65 games played following a SU loss. Pittsburgh is on a 3-game slide and haven't covered a game in over a month. They are banged-up and with no real ground game to keep defenses honest, they are having issues scoring points, which is resulting in their defense spending more time on the field, and in turn, yielding more points. More pressure on the aging, Big Ben, who doesn't have the talent pool as in recent years, this is why the QB has 7 TD's and a whopping, 6 INT's over the L4games. New England has taken 5 in a row in this series, going 4-1 ATS. The Steelers are 1-7 ATS the L8 games played in December and 3-8 ATS the L11 games played at home. The Patriots are 24-10 ATS the L34 vs. the AFC and 17-7 ATS the L24 on the road. Take New England. Thank you.
Play - Tennessee Titans (Game 319).
Edges - Titans: 16-7 ATS all-time away versus NFC East; and 2-0 SUATS as dogs versus NFC East this season … Giants: 2-7 ATS home all-time versus AFC South … We recommend a 1* play on Tennessee. Thank you and good luck as always.
> > This is it. Marc’s Top Rated 10* NFL Game Of The Year is locked and loaded. It’s backed with jaw-dropping winning angles inside the game, including both coaches in NEVER LOST situations that are 21-0 ATS. If you’re serious about winning then you know exactly what to do!
AC Milan -105
The free soccer pick is on AC Milan to beat Bologna in a match that takes place in Italy on December 18.
AC Milan 2
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#NFL FREE PICK FROM MIKE LUNDIN
The Denver Broncos are in the battle for the sixth and final seed in the AFC playoffs, but their postseason aspirations took a big hit with a 20-14 loss at San Francisco last week.
I think the Broncos are in for another tough matchup when hosting the Cleveland Browns Saturday evening.
The Browns will not make it to the playoffs (bar a miracle), but that doesn't mean that that they've stopped competing. This is a Cleveland team eager to figure out how to win again after being everyone's punching bag for so long, and it's doing quite well with three wins through its last four games.
Broncos are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games following a straight up loss and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games in December.
Free pick on Cleveland Browns.
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There is a big reason why you can't take the Packers in this game. It is the same reason why Under the total is the best way to get involved in this matchup. That reason goes by the name of Jason Spriggs. He's an offensive right tackle, who is expected to start for injured Bryan Bulaga. That puts him up against Khalil Mack and Akiem Hicks. It's a mismatch of biblical proportions. Spriggs is a second-round bust. A wasted high draft pick courtesy of now demoted former general manager Ted Thompson, who may have been suffering from senility when he made the pick. Seriously. Thompson is an ill man. I'm not a fan of Mitchell Trubisky either. He's probaby not 100 percent back from a shoulder injury that cost him two games. Trubisky returned this past Sunday night against the Rams. The Bears won in spite of Trubisky, who missed open receivers while compiling a miserable 33.3 passer rating. The Bears held the Rams to six points. LA entered that matchup averaging nearly 35 points a game. Mack has lived up to his lofty reputation. He's in the running for Defensive Player of the Year. Hicks is well above average. The Bears rank No. 3 in fewest points and fewest yards allowed. They lead the NFL in interceptions with 25. The next closest team has 19. Chicago has forced 34 turnovers, six more than the second-place team. Vic Fangio is in the discussion for best defensive coordinator in the league. So it's not a stretch to state this might be the Bears' best defense since their 1985 Super Bowl team. December games in the Midwest favor defense not offense. Teams often run more because of cold weather, which is another plus for an Under. The Packers were pumped in beating a sinking and demoralized Falcons team at home last Sunday, 34-20. That was their first game since Mike McCarthy was fired. Aaron Rodgers and Co. wanted to prove a point. They did. I'm not sure they are ready to move on, though. Firing McCarthy before the season was finished after getting upset at home by the Cardinals was a knee-jerk punk move by Green Bay president Mark Murphy and not in keeping with the Packers' tradition of class. Interim coach Joe Philbin is popular with the Packers players. But he's not head coach material. The Packers have to know their season is finished. The Packers should actually hold Rodgers out rather than risk him to a sure-fire pounding like the Eagles are doing with Carson Wentz in order to preserve their franchise quarterback for next year. Rodgers beat the Bears in Week 1 coming back from injury to do it. He's going to be hard-pressed to repeat that performance because of a battered offensive line, being on the road and facing a dominant defense that wants to beat him more than any other quarterback. Green Bay's defense held a strong Falcons offense to two touchdowns. The Packers actually have as many sacks as the Bears do with 40. That ties them for fourth-best in the NFL. They are fortunate to draw Trubisky. So I see defense - not offense - ruling this matchup.