Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-28-19 | Kansas State v. Oklahoma State -4 | Top | 13-26 | Win | 100 | 22 h 15 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #166 Saturday 10* Top Play Oklahoma State Cowboys (-) vs Kansas State Wildcats @ 7 ET - The Wildcats are ranked and the Cowboys are unranked and yet Oklahoma State opened up as a sizable favorite here. Must be a mistake, right? Long-time followers know how I feel about odds maker "mistakes" and I love fading this false perception when it arises. In this case, I will fade Kansas State. I am well aware of the fact that the Wildcats have a great long-term reputation in the underdog role but I don't see them as being able to score enough here to keep with the Cowboys in Stillwater. Note that Oklahoma State ranks in the top twenty in the nation for pace on offense as well as offensive efficiency. Especially with them being at home for this one I just don't see Kansas State keeping up on the scoreboard. The home team has gotten the SU win in 13 of the last 16 match-ups between these teams and, with this line at a -4, any OSU win is likely to be an ATS win as well! The Cowboys certainly want to make the most of this one as it is their only home game in a span of 5 weeks and, trust me, they are well aware of the fact. Also, Oklahoma State can't wait to get back on the field and erase the taste of a bitter defeat at the hands of the Longhorns in Texas last week. The Cowboys are catching Kansas State off an upset win in their most recent game (but Kansas State was not impressive statistically at Mississippi State). The Wildcats then had a bye week after beating the Bulldogs but now they run into a buzzsaw with the Cowboys angry off a loss plus playing this game with double revenge! Yes, the Cats actually won in 2017 at Stillwater too. Payback time here. The Wildcats are 1-3 ATS when off an upset win as an underdog. The Cowboys are 9-5 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points and also 4-0 ATS when off a road loss. 10* OKLAHOMA STATE |
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09-28-19 | Saskatchewan v. Toronto OVER 49 | Top | 41-16 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #693 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Argonauts vs Saskatchewan Roughriders @ 7 ET - Making the QB switch in the 2nd half last week shows the Argos are ready, willing and able to give the offense a shot in the arm if needed. I feel that was the wake up call Toronto needed on the offensive side of the ball and they will have a much stronger game this week. However, their defense can not be trusted and the Roughriders certainly are capable of taking advantage. Saskatchewan has averaged 33.5 points per game in their last two match-ups with East Division opponents. However, the Riders enter this game having allowed 30 points per game in their past two games. The Argonauts had averaged scoring 30 points per game in their 5 games preceding last week's dismal effort at home. Toronto will bounce back on offense but this is a defense that has allowed 32 points per game on the season! The over is 9-2 in the Argonauts last 11 September games. The Roughriders have averaged 29 points per game in their last 7 games against the Argos. Coming off their bye week, Saskatchewan's offense runs wild in this one as the over improves to 6-2 (and 3-0 this season) when coming off a bye week. Some rain in the area this morning but it will move out by game time this evening. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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09-27-19 | Hamilton +5.5 v. Winnipeg | Top | 33-13 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #689 Friday 10* Top Play Hamilton Tiger-Cats (+) @ Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 8:30 ET - I know this is a revenge for Winnipeg and they are at home but is very hard to trust the Blue Bombers right now. They are off a gut-wrenching loss at Montreal last week where they blew a huge lead and lost in the final seconds. Their defense is a question mark and certainly that is the case in comparing their D with that of the Tiger-Cats. Yes, Hamilton also blew a big lead last week but they managed to get the win on a last-second field goal. That leaves the Ti-Cats with a much different feeling than that of the Bombers coming into this week. Also, Hamilton notched 3 sacks and 3 interceptions in the win over the Eskimos. Dane Evans has been very impressive in filling in for the injured Jeremiah Masoli. He has been putting up big numbers compared to that of Winnipeg's Chris Streveler. Prior to last week's rather high-scoring win, the Tiger-Cats had allowed an average of only 15.8 points per game their 4 prior games. I like having a high quality team getting significant points here when they have been the ones playing better defense and they also have a solid offense. As for the Blue Bombers defense, they have now allowed an average of 30 points per game in their last 3 games against East Division opponents. Hamilton is on a 7-3 ATS run as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points and the Tiger-Cats are on a 14-3 ATS run in Friday games. 10* HAMILTON |
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09-27-19 | Brewers v. Rockies OVER 13 | Top | 7-11 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
Total of the Year - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #957 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 8:10 ET - It is one of those "unwritten rules of the game" but the fact is Colorado should field their best lineup tonight. That's because, though their season is over, this game tonight means plenty to the Brewers (and the Cardinals team they are chasing for the NL Central title). That being said, I expect a solid Rockies lineup here and this is a team known for putting up huge numbers at home. The fact that Milwaukee's Zach Davies is getting hit at a .272 clip on the road this season and also has never pitched at Coors Field in his career bodes well for the Colorado sticks here. The issue for the Rockies it their own pitching here. Antonio Senzatela has only had 1 good start since the All Star break. Truly the odds favor him struggling here as he has an 11.54 ERA since July 1st! That is a span of 9 starts and 8 of the 9 have been quite ugly. Behind Senzatela is a Rockies bullpen whose struggles continued yesterday and, as per usual, the Colorado pen has particularly struggled in home games this season. The Brewers pen also has been a little shaky of late (but managed to work out of some dicey situations). Getting out of jams at Coors Field is tougher though and I look for runs early, often, and throughout this contest. I am well aware the the wind is likely to be blowing in this evening at Coors Field. The odds makers were also aware and yet they opened this total at a 14 and it is now down to a 13. Even with a north wind expected this evening in Denver temperatures will be mild, the air is dry, and the ball comes off like a rocket off the bats of the hitters. Fade the market move here and expect a slugfest at Coors Field. 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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09-27-19 | Penn State -6.5 v. Maryland | Top | 59-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
Friday ATS Blowout - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #107 Friday 10* Top Play Penn State Nittany Lions (-) @ Maryland Terrapins @ 8 ET - The Terrapins are improved this season but just how much better are they really? Maryland has played Howard, Syracuse and Temple. Howard is an FCS school. Syracuse lost their star QB among many other personnel losses coming into this season and they are just 2-2 with wins over Liberty and a MAC school. As for Temple, their football program continues to lack in continuity as they constantly change coaches. Anyway, the point is that just as many are questioning the Nittany Lions because of a rather soft early season schedule the same could be said of Maryland and here is what we do know. The Terrapins entered this year having had 4 straight losing seasons. Maryland has a combined record of 18-31 the past 4 seasons. Penn State is expected to regress some this season as they lost key players but this is still a team that entered this season having gone 31-9 the past 3 seasons. Yes they struggled with a scrappy Pitt team two weeks ago but that is the same Pittsburgh team that upset a ranked Central Florida team this past weekend. The Panthers can play. Now with the added edge of a bye week to prepare for this game (Terps had a bye too...I am aware of that) the Nittany Lions are likely to play their most complete game of the season. In comparing these teams PSU is the more talented team and to get them at less than a TD on the road here is a bargain. The reason for the low line is because the Terrapins have earned some style points with the market place because of big wins early this season. But now Maryland faces a Big Ten foe in their Big Ten opener and this is a foe that has beaten them by a combined 142-20 in the 3 meetings the past 3 seasons. This game will absolutely be much more competitive but I still expect the Nittany Lions to win this game by at least two touchdowns. The Terrapins are improving but they have a ways to go! Maryland is off a loss to Temple that preceded their bye week. The Nittany Lions are 7-0 ATS when facing a team with winning percentage of .749 or less that is off a SU loss as a favorite. Keep in mind Maryland was favored by a touchdown in that Temple game and they lost outright. That Terrapins defeat was against the same Owls team that then preceded to get blasted by Buffalo in their next game. Of course that is the same Buffalo team that Penn State, after a lackluster first half, ended up blowing out 45 to 13 early this season. See where I am going with all these comparisons? Road rout time! 10* PENN STATE |
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09-26-19 | Eagles +4.5 v. Packers | Top | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 23 h 26 m | Show |
Thursday Night Best of the Best - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #101 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ Green Bay Packers @ 8:20 ET - This one is all about the line value of the situation. Give the Packers credit for their 3-0 start to the season but they also are +6 in turnovers on the season. Green Bay came into the season with a projected win total for this year that was less than the Eagles but now Philadelphia is a tough 1-2 to start to the season and being written off by many. How quickly things change in terms of betting market perception. Now, even though the Eagles are getting healthier with some guys back on both sides of the ball this week, they are still catching about 4.5 point in this one. Again, even factoring in home field this match-up is one that would have been around a pick'em before the start to the season that these two teams have had. So again it comes back to value and Philadelphia being very hungry off back to back losses and getting WR Alshon Jeffery back for this game. Though still without DeSean Jackson for this game, Jeffery makes a difference and Nelson Algoholor is still in there at WR along with Zach Ertz at tight end and the two tight end sets are an option again with Dallas Goedert now healthier too. In terms of points allowed (a stat that often gets skewed) the Packers defense looks much better than the Eagles early this season but in terms of actual yardage these teams are nearly equal on defense. As for the offense, even though the Eagles have dealt with injuries they have been much more impressive than the Packers statistically on that side of the ball. Again, not taking anything away from Green Bay and their 3-0 start but it is leading to great underdog value here. The Packers haven't won more than 3 games in a row (and the Eagles haven't lost more than 2 games in a row) since the 2016 season! Philadelphia is on a 4-0 ATS run in Thursday games. Also, the Eagles are a perfect 5-0 ATS when they are off B2B SU and losses and facing a team that is off a SU win by a double digit margin. That system fits perfectly here and Carson Wentz and Company, backed into a corner, get back into the win column in this one. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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09-26-19 | Navy v. Memphis -10.5 | Top | 23-35 | Win | 100 | 22 h 17 m | Show |
Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #104 Thursday 10* Top Play Memphis Tigers (-) vs Navy Midshipmen @ 8 ET - Navy won only 3 games last season and then returned only 4 starters on each side of the ball entering this season. Complicating matters in terms of this game, the Midshipmen have only played 2 games so far and both were against much weaker competition than what they are facing here. Navy has faced East Carolina and Holy Cross in their only two games so far this season. Now, after a bye week, the Midshipmen run into a "buzzsaw" called Memphis. The Tigers averaged 44 points per game the past two games. As for the defense, they returned 8 starters on that side of the ball this season. This could be their best team yet in Mike Norvell's 4 years with the program and remember they won 10 games back in 2017. Remember last year they were ahead 21-9 in the 4th quarter against Navy and then lost 22-21. This is a revenge game for them and also their AAC opener. Like Navy, Memphis is off a bye here. The Tigers are on an 8-1 ATS run in weekday action versus a conference opponent. Memphis is also 7-0 ATS when playing with rest. Navy has Air Force on deck and that is always a big game for them as they battle for the Commander in Chief Trophy. That said, it comes as no surprise that the Midshipmen are 2-5 ATS the past 7 times in their game that is played the week before facing the Falcons. Navy has lost 13 straight road games and I know this is a lot of points but the Tigers are strong enough on both sides of the ball to dominate this game and the revenge factor insures they will keep the pedal to the metal in this one. 10* MEMPHIS |
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09-26-19 | Rockies +124 v. Giants | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #905 Thursday 10* Top Play Colorado Rockies Money Line (+) @ San Francisco Giants @ 3:45 ET - The Rockies Kyle Freeland does not have good numbers this season but he pitched well in his return from injured list and that was against the Dodgers! Also, Freeland has been better in day games than night games and, like most Rockies pitchers, has been better in road games than home games. Freeland will be opposed by the Giants Tyler Beede in this one. Beede, in afternoon action, has won just 1 of his 6 decisions while compiling a 6.19 ERA in day game action this season. Beede has allowed 7 earned runs in less than 6 innings of work in his two appearances against the Rockies this season. Freeland will be be able to pitch longer than he did against the Dodgers and then, behind him, is a Rockies bullpen that has a decent 4.46 ERA in road games this season (keep in mind their home games skew their overall numbers). Colorado was on a respectable 8-5 run their past 13 games before losing 2-1 yesterday. The Giants, prior to yesterday's tight win, were on a 4-11 run in their past 15 home games. San Francisco has been worse at home than on the road this season and I like the underdog value here in a game where I feel we have the better pitcher on the mound. Look for a bounce back from the Rockies after yesterday's 1-run loss. One final note here is that home field hasn't been in an edge in this series in recent meetings. Prior to yesterday's win for SF, the home team was on a 4-10 run in games between these divisional foes. Look for that run to resume on Thursday. 10* COLORADO |
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09-25-19 | Red Sox v. Rangers OVER 11.5 | Top | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #971 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Boston Red Sox @ 8:05 ET - Yesterday's game totaled 22 runs. What you're seeing in this match-up is a pair of teams that are both very relaxed at the plate and are enjoying a very hitter-friendly environment at Globe Life Park in Arlington. It is still summer weather right now in Texas and this ballpark is known for being kind to the hitters especially when weather conditions are like this with high temperatures topping out near 100 degrees today. Of course no playoff pressure on either team so the hitters are very loose and relaxed at the plate. We should see another slugfest today. The Rangers, when at home, are a top 5 team in the majors for runs per game. The Red Sox, when on the road, are a top 5 team in the majors for runs scored. Additionally, this starting pitching match-up features two hurlers whom are likely to get rocked. Boston goes with Rick Porcello. The veteran right-hander is struggling again for the 3rd month out of the last 4. He had a respectable August but Porcello has been rocked hard in June, July, and now September as well. His ERA for those 3 months are 6.46, 7.94, and 6.63, respectively. As for the Rangers Kolby Allard, the young southpaw is finding out just how tough it is when you pitch for a team that has a hitter-friendly home park. Allard has been strong on the road this season but, in his 3 home starts he has a 7.36 ERA and opponents are hitting .333 against him. Keep in mind, Allard also got crushed in 3 appearances (1 start) for the Braves last season. Look for the slugging we saw in yesterday's game to carry over right into today's game as both bullpens got a little roughed up yesterday too and each could be called upon far too early in this one given the above. 10* OVER the total in Texas |
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09-24-19 | Orioles v. Blue Jays OVER 10 | Top | 11-4 | Win | 100 | 1 h 24 m | Show |
NOTE: This is still a play for me although Thomas Pannone is now the starter for the Blue Jays. The Toronto southpaw has pitched well out of the bullpen but struggled as a starter this season. In his his 6 starts this season, Pannone is 0-4 with a 10.65 ERA. Here is the ORIGINAL write-up: Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #919 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7:05 ET - Last night's game saw 20 runs scored and went 15 innings. These two bullpens are a bit "tapped out" after that lengthy slugfest in the series opener. That said, I like the over in this match-up as there is a decent chance each of these starters gets knocked out early. Dylan Bundy has enjoyed some recent success against the Blue Jays but only one of those starts was at Toronto. Prior to that successful start at Rogers Centre this season, note that Bundy allowed 12 earned runs in 9 innings spanning his two starts in Toronto in 2018. Overall, in his last 3 starts north of the border, Bundy has allowed 7 homers and these 3 outings have seen him average just 5 innings per game. Look for the Blue Jays sticks to remain hot at the plate and Toronto will likely need every bit of that offense tonight. That's because Anthony Kay gets the start for the Jays here. The young southpaw enjoyed some surprising success in AAA after coming over from the Mets. However, lets not forget that he had a 6.61 ERA in his 7 starts with New York's AAA affiliate this season. Also, the southpaw has a 5.79 ERA so far in his 3 appearances (2 starts) at the AAA level. There have been ZERO unders in the last 6 meetings between these teams. All 6 of those games have totaled at least 10 runs and the total on this one is currently a 9.5 as of early Tuesday morning. The last 6 meetings have totaled an average of 14.7 runs per game. More of the same here, especially with a pair of fatigued bullpens involved here. Remember too that the Orioles bullpen ERA ranks them dead last among American League bullpens. Both lineups have been swinging the sticks quite well the last two weeks. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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09-24-19 | Brewers v. Reds -125 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -125 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #904 Tuesday 10* Top Play Cincinnati Reds Money Line (-) vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 6:40 ET - The last couple times Adrian Houser has faced the Reds he has allowed 5 earned runs in just 7 innings of work. Houser gave up 3 homers in those 7 innings against Cincinnati. As for Sonny Gray facing the Brewers, he has compiled a 1.85 ERA in his 4 starts against Milwaukee this season. Houser enters this start with a 6.75 ERA over his last 3 starts. Gray enters this start having a phenomenal season and in top current form. Gray is 8-2 in his 15 home starts this season and he deserves every bit of that winning record. Gray has a 2.80 ERA overall this season and has held opponents to a .196 batting average on the year! Gray has struck out 199 batters in his 170 innings. It may surprise some to see the Reds as a favorite in this match-up against a Brewers team that needs to win. However, Cincinnati would love to play the role of spoiler here and, with this pitching match-up, it makes perfect sense that Gray and the Reds are favored. The fact the money line has dropped from the 140 range down to the 125 range as of very early Tuesday morning means we're getting even more value with this one. Even as well as the Brewers have played late in the season they still have a losing record in road games this season. Cincinnati actually is 4 games over .500 at home this season. The bullpens rate nearly equal. That said, the line value is with the home team Reds with their ace, Gray, on the mound. 10* CINCINNATI |
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09-23-19 | Bears v. Redskins +5.5 | Top | 31-15 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
Monday Night Mauling - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #490 Monday 10* Top Play Washington Redskins (+) vs Chicago Bears @ 8:15 ET - Teams almost always are amped up for Monday Night Football but this is particularly when they enter a game winless on the season and playing on their home field. Teams view this is as a great opportunity to right the ship while not only their home crowd, but also all of football nation, is tuned in with Monday Night cameras rolling. The fact we can get the Redskins at nearly a full TD underdog price here is a great value considering that the Bears have averaged scoring only 9.5 points per game in their first two games this season. Chicago was fortunate to get the win at Denver last week. Give them credit for sure as they finally got the clutch kick they needed but now there is even concern there again as the Bears kicker is hurting heading into this game. The Redskins have covered 9 of their past 12 games against non-divisional opponents. The Bears have an anemic offense but do have a strong defense. However, the Broncos did throw for nearly 300 passing yards against Chicago last week. The Bears have been strong at getting sacks but the Redskins have done a great job of limiting sacks early this season. That said, don't be surprised if Washington enjoys some success through the air in this game and I don't expect the Bears to be able to get much of, if any, margin in this contest. The Redskins are fired up off back to back divisional losses including the most recent one coming last week as a host. Note that Washington is 5-0 SU/ATS off a home loss by 10 or more points. Chicago is 2-10 ATS their last dozen games against NFC East opponents. 10* WASHINGTON |
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09-23-19 | Red Sox v. Rays OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #959 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:10 ET - Blake Snell has great numbers for the Rays but is still limited with his pitch count as he returns from injury. He is unlikely to work more than 3 or 4 innings here and the Red Sox lineup is very familiar with, and has enjoyed some solid success against, the Tampa Bay bullpen. Boston's issue here is going to be their own pitching. Jhoulys Chacin gets the start and he is winless with a 6.75 ERA in his 7 games (6 starts) since the All Star break. Also, the Red Sox right-hander has struggled on the road all season. In 11 starts he is 1-9 with a 6.85 ERA. Opponents are hitting .304 against Chacin in his road starts. Also, in his two most recent starts coming to the Red Sox from the Brewers, the right-hander has had to exit early due to running into trouble very early in his starts. That is significant because the Red Sox bullpen certainly is not what it once was. This season it has ranked only as an "average" bullpen based on team ERA on the year. In 2017 they were one of the best but they regressed some in 2018, and now this season they have dropped off even a little further. We'll take advantage here. 10* OVER the total in Tampa Bay |
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09-23-19 | Phillies +1.5 v. Nationals | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
Run Line Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #951 Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line +1.5 runs @ Washington Nationals @ 7:05 ET - The Phillies aren't going to quit until it is officially over in terms of their Wild Card odds. Yes, it would take a minor miracle now for Philadelphia to get there now, but the fact is they are facing the right team to gain traction. They have 5 straight games against Washington now and it is the Nationals that are 6 games ahead of them in the race for 1 of the 2 Wild Card spots. Again, it is a tremendous longshot but until the Phillies are officially eliminated they are not going to stop treating each game like a playoff game. That said, after getting blasted last night at Cleveland 10-1, I look for Philadelphia to respond big here. They have a red hot pitcher on the mound in Zach Eflin (2.23 ERA in his last 6 starts) and they face Patrick Corbin in this one. The Nats left-hander had a gem against the Phillies this season but in his other two starts against Philadelphia he did allowed 3 earned runs in 6 innings in each of those outings. The total on this game is only 9 runs and, with a pitchers duel expected, the Phillies getting at least their typical 3 runs off Corbin would go a long way toward cashing this ticket. I am grabbing the Phillies at +1.5 runs on the run line in this one. If they lose a 1-run ball game we still get the cash and note that Washington's bullpen ERA of 5.87 on the season ranks dead last in the majors. 10* PHILADELPHIA +1.5 runs |
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09-22-19 | Steelers +6.5 v. 49ers | Top | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #485 Sunday 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Steelers (+) @ San Francisco 49ers @ 4:25 ET - Certainly the Niners deserve some credit for their 2-0 start but they are taking on a Steelers team that, even without Big Ben, is certainly much better than their 0-2 record would indicate. Also, San Francisco's two wins have come against a Tampa Bay team that has won just 5 games in each of the past two seasons and a Cincinnati team that entered this season off 3 straight losing seasons. Now the 49ers take on a team that is annually a threat to make a run at a Super Bowl team. Trust me, I fully realize this Steelers team is not at the same highest level that it once was. However, catching nearly a full TD here with them in a desperation spot is something I won't pass up. I liked San Francisco coming into this season and I still like them now but they are simply over-rated at this point and I could see them getting upset here which is why I like having the big point so much. Coming off back to back road wins back east and with a bye week on deck, the Niners could get caught thinking they can coast at home here and they get caught already looking ahead to their early season bye. San Francisco entered this season 1-13 ATS the last 14 times they have been a favorite. Also, head coach Kyle Shanahan is 0-7 ATS at home when off a non-divisional game and facing an opponent off a SU loss. Also, Shanahan is 1-8 ATS at home off a game in which his team scored 23 or more points. The Steelers are 12-1 ATS as a dog against an opponent with a winning record. Head coach Mike Tomlin is 11-1 ATS as a road dog against a team off B2B SU wins. 10* PITTSBURGH |
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09-22-19 | Giants v. Bucs OVER 47.5 | Top | 32-31 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #477 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New York Giants @ 4:05 ET - In week 1 of this season Tampa Bay's defense forced only 2 punts the entire game. In week 2 they allowed over 300 passing yards to Cam "His shoulder is trash" Newton at Carolina but the 4 scores for the Panthers offense were field goals not touchdowns. Give the Buccaneers some credit for that for sure but, off of that big divisional road win, I will not be surprised to see the defense struggle with a desperate Giants team whose offense has been better than their point totals would suggest. New York has averaged 420 yards of offense per game and also has done a great job of not allowing sacks and that has been with the immobile Eli Manning at QB. Now, Daniel Jones takes over at QB in week 3 and he is a much more mobile QB that also has a great "safety valve" in the form of RB Saquon Barkley. The issue for the Giants has much more to do with their defense than their offense to be honest. That is why I like the over so much in this match-up. Jameis Winston bounced back from a very disappointing home start in Week 1 with a respectable game at Carolina in Week 2. This week, Winston is happy to be back home and wants to make up for that embarrassing performance in the home opener. Facing the horrible pass defense of the Giants should allow him to do just that. Also note that the Bucs games are on a perfect 6-0 run to the over when coming off a Thursday night game. Giants games are 6-1 to the over when they are a off a home loss by a double digit margin. 10* OVER the total in Tampa Bay |
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09-21-19 | Colorado +8 v. Arizona State | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #351 Saturday 10* Top Play Colorado Buffaloes (+) @ Arizona State Sun Devils @ 10 ET - Tough spot for ASU. I know on one hand they do have revenge against the Buffaloes since they lost to them last season. However, on the other hand, the Sun Devils are off an emotional come from behind win at Michigan State last week and they won the game in dramatic fashion. Give Arizona State credit for "finding a way" last week but also note that the Spartans play-calling on offense is horrific for a top tier Big Ten program that should have much better performance in that regard. Even with that, Michigan State still outgained ASU by nearly 200 yards. With Arizona State off an upset win and the Buffaloes off an upset loss at home, this one sets up well. Keep in mind, Colorado had beaten Nebraska the week before and that followed demolishing Colorado State in their season opener. The Buffaloes also have a bye week on deck and have a very dangerous offense that is going to test an ASU defense that is highly over-rated right now. Yes the Sun Devils have some great numbers on the season but I already mentioned Michigan State's horrible play-calling above and note that Arizona State's first two games were against Kent State and Sacramento State! The Sun Devils defense is going to be stretched out in this game like it hasn't been stretched yet this season and I expect the Buffaloes to give them trouble all game long. Look for Arizona State to drop to 6-12 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points. 10* COLORADO |
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09-21-19 | Oklahoma State v. Texas OVER 72.5 | Top | 30-36 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #375 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Longhorns vs Oklahoma State Cowboys @ 7:30 ET - Good weather expected in Austin this evening and I am looking for a ton of points in a game featuring two very potent offenses and two suspect defenses. Keep in mind the UT defense returned only 3 starters this season and the Longhorns D was much stronger last season and still allowed 38 points or more against Oklahoma (twice) and Oklahoma State and West Virginia. This season, Texas already allowed 45 to LSU. As for the Horns offense, they are averaging 43.7 points per game this season! The Cowboys won't be able to stop them but their own potent offense certainly should stay red hot here. OSU is averaging 49.3 points per game this season. The Cowboys are off a road win at Tulsa last week and Oklahoma State has gone 8-0 to the over their last 8 when they enter a game off a road win. Texas is 3-1 to the over in a home game with a posted total of 70 points or more. In other words, don't let the big number scare you. Also, the Horns, after scoring 37 points or more in 3 straight games, are 19-8 to the over. Additionally, the Longhorns are 3-1 to the over as a home favorite of 7 points or less. Oklahoma State's defense returned only 5 starters this season from a unit that allowed 37.1 points per game over the final 10 games last year. The Cowboys already allowed 36 points to Oregon State earlier this season and this is now the toughest offense they have faced by far. 10* OVER the total in Texas |
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09-21-19 | Mets v. Reds OVER 9 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
Day Game Smash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #953 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets @ 4:10 ET - Both the Reds Anthony DeSclafani and Mets Zach Wheeler come into this game pitching very well. So why the relatively big number posted on a National League match-up with playoff implications (for New York)? Exactly! Don't let the rather big number scare you away here. It is a warm afternoon more like late summer than early fall in Cincinnati. In day games with weather conditions like the ball jumps off bats at Great American Ball Park and that is precisely what I am expecting here. Also, DeSclafani has a 4.78 ERA in his 13 day game starts this season. Wheeler has a 5.05 ERA in his 13 afternoon game starts his season. Both pitchers have performed better at night compared to day game action this season. Also, Wheeler gave up 4 earned runs in 6 innings in his lone start against the Reds this season. As for DeSclafani, lefties have a .485 slugging percentage against him this season and the Mets are loaded on that side of the plate. As for the bullpens, the Reds pen imploded last night and that continued their late season trend. As for the Mets pen, it ranks as one of the worst in the majors and was also a bit shaky again last night. 10* OVER the total in Cincinnati |
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09-21-19 | Winnipeg v. Montreal +3 | Top | 37-38 | Win | 100 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #686 Saturday 10* Top Play Montreal Alouettes (+) vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 4 ET - Love this situation. The Blue Bombers opened up around a pick'em in this game so, of course, the markets jumped all over one of the best teams in the CFL and this line has moved to a -3. Keep in mind, Winnipeg is off a bye week but has a game versus Hamilton on deck. Why does that matter? The Tiger-Cats are the #1 team in the East and also handed Winnipeg their first loss of the season! Don't be surprised if the Bombers make the mistake of looking right past the Alouettes in this one. That will prove to be a mistake because, as strong as Winnipeg is this season, they are still just a .500 team on the road. Montreal has a winning record at home and has been getting strong QB play from Vernon Adams. Of course Winnipeg has been dealing with the QB injury to Matt Nichols. They do get RB Andrew Harris back this week but the Als have a great rusher of their own in William Stanback. They will call this one an upset but, from a situational perspective, truly the home team is the one that should win this game and I won't be surprised when they do. The Alouettes are off a loss and respond here as they catch the Blue Bombers in the right situation to knock them off. 10* MONTREAL |
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09-20-19 | Air Force v. Boise State -7 | Top | 19-30 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
Conference Clash - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #310 Friday 10* Top Play Boise State Broncos (-) vs Air Force Falcons @ 9 ET - With this line having dropped to a solid painted 7 across the board as of early Friday morning it is "go time" with Boise State in this one. Air Force is off a huge effort on the road at Colorado last week in an emotionally charged OT win over the Buffaloes. Now the Falcons are in the 2nd of B2B road games while Boise State is enjoying the comforts of home. The Broncos are enjoying an entire month at home actually as they haven't been on the road since their season opening win over the Seminoles down in Florida at the end of August. Boise State has a bye week on deck before traveling to UNLV for their first game of October. From a situational standpoint, this one favors the Broncos in a big way. Also, even though Air Force would like to get payback for losing at home to Boise State last season, the fact is that the Falcons are 0-7 ATS when they are on the road and playing with revenge and are coming off consecutive SU (and ATS) wins. That is the case here and I like the fact that the Broncos return 7 starters on defense this season, are doing a great job against the run this season, and also have done a solid job against Air Force's option attack the past two seasons. The Falcons have covered just 2 of their past 7 Mountain West road openers. The Broncos, as a home favorite of 7 points or less, are 9-3 ATS! This one has definitely dropped into their sweet spot and I especially like this after oddsmakers had opened this one up at nearly a double digit line! 10* BOISE STATE |
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09-20-19 | Red Sox v. Rays OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #921 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:10 ET - This total opened up at a 9 but dropped to an 8.5 which has a lot to do with Charlie Morton's long-term reputation. However, the key word there is long-term because Morton has not been the same pitcher since the All Star break. The last time he faced the Red Sox was in late July and Morton allowed 4 earned runs in less than 5 innings of work. Morton has been far from dominant since mid-July as he has allowed 3 earned runs or more in 7 of his last 11 outings. In 4 of the 7 Morton allowed 4 earned runs or more. As for Red Sox starter Rick Porcello, it has been a forgettable season. The right-hander has a 5.77 ERA in his 30 starts and it is truly amazing that he is 13-12 on the season given those numbers. Porcello is 0-2 in his last two starts against the Rays and has allowed 10 earned runs in less than 12 innings of work spanning those two outings. In his last two starts against American League foes, Porcello has allowed 6 earned runs in each of the two outings even though he lasted only 4 innings in each start. More the same on tap here. The over is 5-1 in the last 6 games between these teams. The over is a perfect 3-0 in Boston's last 3 games. The over is also 3-0 in the Rays last 3 games. After 3 consecutive games versus an interleague opponent, the Red Sox over is 7-2 this season. After allowing 7 runs or more 2 straight games, the Rays over is 7-3 this season. Also, the Boston bullpen has been every shaky lately. 10* OVER the total in Tampa Bay |
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09-20-19 | Calgary v. Toronto OVER 53.5 | Top | 23-16 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #681 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Argonauts vs Calgary Stampeders @ 7 ET - I am aware of the injury to wide receiver Reggie Begelton for the Stamps. However, Calgary also is going to be without their leading tackler, linebacker Cory Greenwood. That said, Toronto is going to score their fair share of points in this one. This is particularly true because they are at home for this one also. But I just don't see the Argos being able to stop a potent West Division offense even with the Stampeders being with a top wide receiver. Calgary still have plenty of firepower all over the field and the Stamps enter this game off a low-scoring win. Rarely do the Stampeders ever have back to back low-scoring performances. Prior to the tight win over Hamilton, Calgary had averaged 31 points per game in their 3 prior games. As for the Argonauts offense, they seemed to respond to their "wake-up call" of a late July shutout loss to Edmonton. Ever since then Toronto has scored an average of 30 points per game and 4 of their 5 games since being shutout by the Eskimos have gone over the total. Look for the Stampeders over to improve to 3-0 in their past 3 road games with a high-scoring contest expected here. The past two seasons, when Calgary is facing a team with a losing record in a game played in the second half of a season, the over is 3-1. Toronto's over is 4-1 this season when facing a team with a winning record. Also, in September games the Argonauts are 9-1 to the over. All these trends continue Friday. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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09-19-19 | Titans v. Jaguars OVER 38.5 | Top | 7-20 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #301 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans @ 8:20 ET - Big drop on this total as it is a divisional showdown in primetime action and the Titans have a history of shutting down the Jaguars offense. However, I look for this game to play out much differently as Jags QB Minshew (filling in for the injured Foles) has a big game but the Jacksonville defense struggles to stop RB Henry and QB Mariota. The Jaguars need to be aggressive on offense so they can keep the Titans defense guessing. The Jags can't be one-dimensional and Minshew has that "gunslinger's mentality" which, of course, can be nice to have with a play on the over. Of course the markets are pushing this one lower as a high percentage of last week's NFL games stayed under the total and there is a recent history of low-scoring games between these teams. However, note the following stats: Jacksonville over is 9-4 after allowing 14 points or less last game. The Jaguars over is 2-0 when a home dog of 3 or less points. The Titans over is 9-4 in Thursday games. Tennessee also is 11-3 to the over when off an upset loss to a division rival as a home favorite. It was a tight loss for the Titans versus the Colts last week and Tennessee is also 10-5 to the over when off a tight loss of 3 or less points to a division rival. Both teams are off very tight divisional losses last week in which it was their offensive production that led to them falling short. That said, you know where the emphasis is going to be in this divisional match-up this week. 10* OVER the total in Jacksonville |
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09-19-19 | Houston +5.5 v. Tulane | Top | 31-38 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #303 Thursday 10* Top Play Houston Cougars (+) @ Tulane Green Wave @ 8 ET - I am well aware of the fact that Tulane has a strong defensive line. However, the Cougars are well-coached (particularly on offense) and they also have a ton of talent at the skill positions. Houston will figure out ways to quickly get the ball in the hands of their play-makers and combat an aggressive Green Wave defensive line. Also, the Tulane secondary is where the weakness lies with their defense. That said, Houston will certainly test that as well. The Cougars are 1-2 SU on the season but the two losses were to Oklahoma and Washington State! Tulane is 2-1 SU on the season but their two wins were over FIU (CUSA school) and Missouri State (FCS school). Although the Green Wave did play (and lost) against Auburn, I feel the schedule has Houston as the more battle-tested team heading into this one. I also love the line move here. This one opened up as low as a 2.5 globally but is now up to as high as a 5.5 as of game day morning. I love the value with the road dog that possesses the stronger offense in this match-up. Keep in mind, Tulane's offense really sputtered it their only game against quality competition. I know the Cougars defense is an area of concern (again) this season but the Green Wave are getting a little too much respect here. Tulane is 0-5 ATS the last 5 times they have entered a contest off a game in which they scored more than 35 points. Houston is 7-0 ATS in the 1st of B2B road games and they are at North Texas next week. In addition to the combined 12-0 (100%) ATS mark I am happy to test here, note that the Cougars are 6-1 ATS the last 7 times they have been on the road against Tulane. The Green Wave, when playing after a win by a margin of 21 or more points, are 1-5 ATS. Again, I am testing the aforementioned 12-0 combined ATS mark with a hungry road dog that should be in this game all the way and has a great shot at the upset. 10* HOUSTON |
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09-19-19 | Royals v. Twins OVER 10 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #963 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals @ 7:40 ET - The calendar says we're in the latter half of September, but the weather right now in Minneapolis is more like summer weather by Minnesota standards. I look for both these starting pitchers to get rocked and we've got some value with this total because it has moved down from an opener of 10.5 to now 10 runs as of very early game day morning. With both teams off low-scoring losses yesterday I am not surprised to see this game total currently painted as a 10 across the board. However, this pitching match-up is going to bring the bats quickly back to life for both ball clubs. The Twins Kyle Gibson has a 7.59 ERA in his last 7 appearances (6 starts) and has been getting hit at a .302 clip since the All Star break. Gibson has definitely proven to be on a second half fade this season. As for the Royals Mike Montgomery, his home/road dichotomy is very strong. On the season he has impressive ERA numbers in home appearances but in his 17 road appearances (5 starts) Montgomery is 1-5 with a 7.85 ERA. It is no fluke either as opponents are hitting .375 against the Royals southpaw when he is away from home! It is easy to see why I am expecting runs early and often on a mild evening with light south winds at Target Field Thursday. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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09-17-19 | Mets v. Rockies OVER 13.5 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 0 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Rotation #959 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs New York Mets @ 8:40 ET - The Rockies Tim Melville is 2-4 with a 7.47 ERA in his 11 MLB appearances (8 starts) and opponents are hitting .311 against him. He has made 5 starts with Colorado this season and, like most pitchers, he is finding out what a nightmare it is to pitch at Coors Field. Melville has a 9.00 ERA in his 3 home starts this season. The Mets are starting Marcus Stroman here. The right-hander had pitched his entire career with the Blue Jays in the American League prior to coming to the Mets and facing National League competition on a regular basis. Perhaps he should have stayed in the AL! Since coming to the NL, Stroman has been hit at a .301 clip! That being said, he is actually fortunate that his ERA is not higher than the 4.50 that he has recorded so far with New York. The Mets right-hander also faces a stiff challenge here because the Rockies continue to pile up runs at home. Colorado has won 4 straight home games and they have scored no less than 9 runs in each game. The Rockies have scored an average of 10 runs per game during this 4-game win streak and should remain red hot here on a mild evening at Coors Field with possibly favorable wind direction as well. The Mets, even with scoring just 4 runs in yesterday's loss, have averaged 7.4 runs per game their past 8 road games. The Mets bullpen has a 5.43 ERA in road games this season. The Rockies bullpen has a 5.88 ERA in home games this season. As you can see, after last night's over was a painful loss for bettors (Game was 7-4 through 4 innings), there are plenty of edge factors that point toward tonight's match-up flying over the total. 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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09-17-19 | Mariners v. Pirates -128 | Top | 6-0 | Loss | -128 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Rotation #976 Tuesday 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Pirates Money Line (-) vs Seattle Mariners @ 7:05 ET - These two teams are each in the basement of their respective divisions and I like the small home favorite value we're getting here in this inter-league match-up. The Pirates Mitch Keller is a different pitcher when he is at home and he also has deserved much better results overall in his starts as he has been a strikeout pitcher. Also, the Mariners Marco Gonzales is a different pitcher when he is on the road. Note that the Mariners lefty, since the All Star break, has made 6 road starts and NONE of them have gone well. Gonzales has allowed 25 earned runs on 45 hits in 33 innings of work! As for Keller, his numbers at home have been skewed by one bad start out of 4 outings. In the other 3 home starts, Keller has allowed just 3 earned runs in 12 and 2/3 innings. Overall, home and away, Keller has piled up 51 strikeouts in 38 innings! For comparison's sake, note that Gonzales has totaled just 2 strikeouts in the 11 innings spanning his last two road starts. 10* PITTSBURGH |
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09-16-19 | Browns v. Jets OVER 45 | Top | 23-3 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NFL Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Jets vs Cleveland Browns @ 8:15 ET - I am aware of all the injury issues here. Note that some of those are on the defensive side of the ball and that will help our cause here. After the unders cashed in 12 of the 15 games so far in the NFL this week, many will be gunshy about firing away on the over hiere but each game must be analyzed separately of course. The other games have no bearing on the outcome of the total in this game and I am expecting plenty of points. Baker Mayfield and the Browns offense are going to bounce back after last week's disastrous performance at home. Also, Trevor Siemian will surprise many with a good game. There is some talent around him at the skill positions and he has plenty of starting experience in his career. He is not some rookie being thrown into the fire. With Sam Darnold being out the Jets have had plenty of time to work Siemian into their plans for this Monday night match-up. He actually is going to surprise and be a good fit within this offense. However, about that Jets defense...they allowed a huge comeback by the Bills last week as this is a Jets D that allowed 28 points per game last week. Mayfield and Co will enjoy success here. The over is 4-1 Browns last 5 played on turf and 4-1 the last 5 times they've been a favorite and I look for the over to improve to 8-4 the last dozen times that Cleveland has been off a game where they were held to 14 points or less. The over is 7-2 when New York is a home dog of 7 or less points. Also, the over is 5-1 when the Jets are off a loss by a margin of 6 or less points. 10* OVER the total in New York Jets |
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09-16-19 | Padres v. Brewers OVER 9 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #901 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres @ 7:40 ET - Garrett Richards gets the start for the Padres. He is making his long-awaited San Diego debut as he comes back from Tommy John surgery. Richards went 0-1 with a 10.61 ERA in his 5 starts in the minors this season. Now he faces a Brewers team that is riding high. Even without the injured Christian Yelich, Milwaukee continues to pile up runs and win games and I expect them to enjoy success as Richards will struggle to get back into a groove as he makes his first MLB start since July of last year! The Brewers start Zach Davies here and he has faded in the 2nd half of this season. Davies is 2-5 with a 5.14 ERA in his 10 starts since the All Star break. Also, Davies got rocked for 5 earned runs in less than 3 innings of work in his start at San Diego in June. Look for the Padres, extra confidence at the plate after their weekend series at Coors Field, to get to Davies early and often in this one. With that said, and with this total dropping from an early opener of 9.5 down to a 9, I like the value here in a game where I expect plenty of struggles for each starting pitcher. San Diego has scored an average of 6 runs per game their past 6 games. Milwaukee has been shutout once in their past 10 games but in the other 9 games the Brewers scored an average of 6 runs per game. 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee |
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09-15-19 | Bears v. Broncos OVER 40 | Top | 16-14 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #285 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Denver Broncos vs Chicago Bears @ 4:25 ET - It is safe to say that Broncos HC Vic Fangio knows a thing or two about the tough Bears defense he is facing Sunday. Fangio was the defensive coordinator in Chicago for the past four years before being hired as head coach of Denver. That said, I love the low total posted on this game because I am a classic contrarian. Yes, the Bears defensive struggle against the Packers in the season opener has the attention of everyone and that is keeping this total low. This is not a divisional game however, and is not even an NFC game, it is a non-conference match-up which features a Bears team chomping at the bit to get their offense going after scoring just 3 points last week at home against Green Bay. Keep in mind, the Raiders put up 24 points on this Broncos team on Monday. We're going to see some points in this one with Fangio knowing where the weaknesses (what few exist) are in the Bears defense and Denver will move the ball better here than many are expecting. But I don't see the Broncos stopping a Chicago offense that is much better than what they showed in that Thursday night opener. The Bears averaged 26 points per game last season and when off a game where they were held under 23 points (only happened 3 times) they responded by averaging 32 points per game in their next game. The Broncos, in the past two seasons, are 4-2 to the over when off a divisional game and 3-1 to the over when off a Monday night football game. 10* OVER the total in Denver |
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09-15-19 | Saints +2 v. Rams | Top | 9-27 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #283 Sunday 10* Top Play New Orleans Saints (+) @ Los Angeles Rams @ 4:25 ET - The Saints barely beat the Texans last week at home but did outgain Houston by about 100 yards in the game. Also, could anyone blame New Orleans if they were perhaps looking ahead to this showdown with the Rams? The loss to LA that kept the Saints out of the Super Bowl will go down as one of the most controversial finishes ever in a playoff game. In any event, this week it is payback time and the Rams, despite last week's win, do have issues in terms of Super Bowl losers "hangover". They got manhandled by the Patriots in the Super Bowl last year and even though they won at Carolina last week it was not that impressive. They benefited from turnovers and keep in mind that this was against the same Panthers team that lost to the Buccaneers (yes those Bucs!) in Carolina to open up Week 2 NFL action. I am expecting the Rams to have a dropoff this season but early this season we're still getting value because it is not evident to the masses just yet that this LA team is set to have a dropoff. As for New Orleans, they're going to ride the hunger of last season's disappointing end result and of feeling cheated. A lot of emotions and positive energy for the Saints here and I'll take Drew Brees over Jared Goff any place any time. The Saints are 15-1 ATS when facing an NFC opponent with a winning percentage of .667 or greater. The Rams are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 as a non-divisional home favorite. I am grabbing the couple points being offered here and I expect a big road win. 10* NEW ORLEANS SAINTS |
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09-15-19 | Braves v. Nationals OVER 9.5 | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -111 | 6 h 59 m | Show |
Early Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #953 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves @ 1:35 ET - With their big win yesterday the Braves remain red hot, including at the plate. That said, I don't see the Atlanta sticks slowing down here either. They face Anibal Sanchez in Washington. The Nationals right-hander had a good first start this season against the Braves. However, he has struggled worse and worse in each of his next three starts against Atlanta. The Braves have gotten to Sanchez for 11 earned runs in 16 innings over the past 3 starts. Sanchez has allowed a 2.00 WHIP in his last 2 starts against Atlanta as he has allowed 16 hits and 4 walks in 10 innings. Max Fried gets the start for the Braves here and he is 8-2 on the road this season but with a 4.71 ERA. Also, in his 6 day game outings (5 starts) opponents are hitting .331 against him. The Nationals are seeing him for the 3rd time this season and first time hosting Fried in DC. The Nats did give him trouble in 1 of the 2 starts this season and, based on his road struggles, this is likely to be another ugly outing for Fried here. He has allowed 5 homers in his last 2 road starts. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Washington |
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09-15-19 | Red Sox v. Phillies +102 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 8 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #980 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (+) vs Boston Red Sox @ 1:05 ET - Yes the Red Sox are off back to back wins but this was immediately preceded by a 3-8 stretch. Also, the Phillies have been a strong play when off a loss and they should bounce back here after yesterday's 2-1 loss. Rick Porcello gets the start for Boston and he is having a homer-prone forgettable season. The Red Sox are 3-5 in the last 8 starts made by Porcello. Look for the Phillies to improve to 4-2 in the last 6 home starts made by Jason Vargas. Opponents are hitting .248 against Vargas this season. Opponents are hitting .318 against Porcello in his road outings this year. Also, in day games this season Porcello has a 6.83 ERA. The Phillies are 8-3 the last 11 times they have entered a game off a loss. The Red Sox are 5-11 in their last 16 games against a left-handed starter. Boston is 10-20 in their last 30 games against teams with a winning record. Even inclusive of yesterday's loss, the Phillies are 10-5 in interleague action this season. Bounce back time and payback time at a home dog price. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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09-14-19 | Northern Illinois v. Nebraska -14 | Top | 8-44 | Win | 100 | 23 h 4 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #194 Saturday 10* Top Play Nebraska Cornhuskers (-) vs Northern Illinois Huskies @ 8 ET - Nebraska is off an inexcusable loss at Colorado last week and that means they are going to come back home and put a beating on a foe that can't keep up. The Cornhuskers go from a road game against a Pac-12 team to now hosting a MAC team and this one is going to get ugly quick as Nebraska takes out the frustration of blowing a 17-0 lead against the Buffaloes last week. The Huskers have a lot to play for besides last week's loss too. Two years ago Nebraska hosted Northern Illinois and lost 21-17 as a double digit favorite. Of course that makes this a revenge spot for the Cornhuskers and note that the Huskies entered this season 0-5 ATS when they are off a non-conference game and now facing a team that is off a SU/ATS loss and playing with revenge. That is a 100% perfect situation that is in play here with the Huskers having revenge from the 2017 game plus coming off an outright upset loss at Colorado in OT last week. This is the final non-conference home game for Nebraska and they need a much better performance in their final tune-up before Big Ten action begins next week at Illinois. The Cornhuskers were unimpressive in their season opening win over South Alabama and then only played one good half at Colorado last week after that season-opening wake up call from the Jaguars. Now, after what happened last week with the OT loss to the Buffaloes, look for the Huskers to finally put it together for the full 60 minutes in this one. Prior to losing the last meeting by 4 points, the Huskers had beaten the Huskies by a combined 77 points in the two prior meetings! Remember Northern Illinois has a new head coach in Thomas Hammock and this is a 2nd straight road game for the Huskies. It is payback time and the Huskers are an angry bunch. The Huskies are walking right into a hornets nest in this one because the talent level disparity is too great and the home team is motivated by last week and by revenge. 10* NEBRASKA |
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09-14-19 | Montreal v. Saskatchewan OVER 49.5 | Top | 25-27 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #693 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Saskatchewan Roughriders vs Montreal Alouettes @ 7 ET - There are a lot of trends that point to the under for this game and their first match-up this season stayed well under the total. However, I am riding high with the over here because the Riders are off back to back sub-par showings on offense this season. Normally Saskatchewan has bounced back every single time off a low-scoring game and I fully expect that here after scoring just 10 points last week. QB Cody Fajardo and the Riders are fired up for a strong game and they want to stretch the field and put pressure on the Als and force them to play catch-up. Saskatchewan does not want to allow the Alouettes to get into a ball-control ground-based attack that serves them well. The Riders want to force QB Vernon Adams and Montreal out of their typical came plan. By the way, the Als are also off a low-scoring effort last week and, like the Riders, Montreal has shown a knack for bouncing back with strong games offensively when off a rare dud in terms of offensive production. Montreal had scored 27 points or more in 5 of 7 games previous to being held to 21 points last week. The Roughriders, prior to back to back low-scoring results (first time this season!) had averaged 31 points per game over an 8-week stretch. I am looking for a 33-27 type game here and that total is double digits in excess of the current posted number on this game. Keep in mind, non-conference match-ups for these teams (their own earlier match-up this season notwithstanding) have proven to be high-scoring affairs more often than not. This one flies over the total as the weather forecast is also a good one here. 10* OVER the total in Saskatchewan |
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09-14-19 | Oklahoma State v. Tulsa OVER 63.5 | Top | 40-21 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 22 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #149 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs Oklahoma State Cowboys @ 3:30 ET - Tulsa's QB Zach Smith struggled in their season opener but it was at Michigan State and the Spartans have one of the best defenses in the nation. As expected, the transfer from Baylor bounced back with a strong game at San Jose State last week and I expect more of the same this week in the home opener for the Golden Hurricane. Yes, Tulsa is facing a solid team this week as they host Oklahoma State but the strength of the Cowboys is offense. The Golden Hurricane won't be able to stop the OSU juggernaut on offense but Tulsa's offense is good enough to hang within two scores (current line on this one is -14) and that means you have consistent scoring throughout this game. Oklahoma State allowed 32 points per game last season and they only return 5 starters from their defense and lost their defensive line. Tulsa's defense was better last year than they had been in recent seasons but they still allowed an average of 30 points and they now face a Cowboys team that has put up 59 points or more in EACH of the last 3 meetings between these teams. The weather forecast looks great for Tulsa on Saturday afternoon. OSU is already averaging 54 points per game and 567.5 yards per game so far this season. The over is 15-7 in Oklahoma State's last 22 games as a favorite. The over is 3-1 the last 4 times the Golden Hurricane were a home underdog of 10.5 to 14 points. The over is 3-0 in the last 3 meetings between these teams and each of those 3 games totaled at least 83 points. 10* OVER the total in Tulsa |
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09-14-19 | Yankees v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 | Top | 13-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #915 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees @ 3:05 ET - Yesterday's game went 12 innings which used some extra bullpen. The Blue Jays Jacob Waguespack struggled against the Yankees when he faced them earlier this season. The Yankees James Paxton has struggled against the Blue Jays in both his starts against them this season. The Yankees are still motivated here as they are locked in a battle with the Astros for the home field edge in the upcoming playoffs. Toronto is still motivated here too, as they proved last night, because even though they are out of the playoff picture they are hosting a division rival for whom they have great disdain. That said, look for another high-scoring game here and we get good line value since Paxton has good numbers on the season and that is helping to keep this total under the 10 mark (as of very early Saturday morning). The over is 16-5 this season when the Yankees are priced as a road favorite of -175 or more. Look for the over to improve to 3-0 this season in Paxton's starts against Toronto. The Blue Jays over is 2-1 in Waguespack's last 3 starts as he has been roughed to the tune of an 8.74 ERA in his last 3 starts. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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09-13-19 | Ottawa v. BC -5 | Top | 5-29 | Win | 100 | 15 h 44 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #690 Friday 10* Top Play BC Lions (-) vs Ottawa Redblacks @ 10 PM ET - A match-up of struggling teams and, of course, many were surprised to see a 1-10 BC team open up as a 7.5 point favorite over a 3-8 Ottawa team! Of course the markets have since pounded this "mistake" by the oddsmakers and the line has dropped down to the -5 range. I have said it many times before and I'll say it many times again in the future, the oddsmakers don't really make "mistakes". The line was set this way with good reason and I love the Lions in this spot. BC is still searching for their first home win. Even though they've still been losing in recent weeks the Lions have made improvements on defense and the offensive line is also giving better protection to QB Mike Reilly as evidenced in last week's game. BC is extra hungry to get that home win but also has extra fire about this game because of hosting former Lions QB Jonathan Jennings whom jettisoned BC to go to Ottawa in this past offseason. Rest assured, BC wants this game very much and they are starting to jell despite what their record would otherwise indicate. Take advantage of the "false" line move here and lay those points knowing that you're getting the best of the number and that you've got a highly motivated team that appears poised to play their best game of the season tonight! Look for the Lions to improve to 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings between these teams as they get the much-needed home win tonight and it comes by a convincing margin. 10* BC LIONS |
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09-13-19 | Braves +150 v. Nationals | Top | 5-0 | Win | 150 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #953 Thursday 10* Top Play Atlanta Braves Money Line (+) @ Washington Nationals @ 7:05 ET - Certainly I respect the Nationals at home with Max Scherzer on the mound. However, this line is really not giving enough respect to the Braves with Mike Soroka on the mound. Atlanta has proven to be one of the best teams in baseball this season. Soroka, despite losing to Washington in his most recent start, is 11-4 with a 2.67 ERA this season. Scherzer, despite beating Soroka and the Braves in his most recent start, still has averaged only 5 innings per start in his 5 outings since the All Star break. Scherzer is still working his way into top form and full strength as he is recovering from a back injury. Soroka has been nearly unbeatable on the road this season as he is 6-1 with a 1.44 ERA in his 14 road starts. Opponents are hitting only .203 against Soroka when he is away from home. To be able to get one of the best teams in baseball in the +150 price range and coming off a loss and having a quality pitcher on the mound and having the better bullpen in this match-up...this is a situation I simply can not pass up on. The Nationals bullpen has a 5.79 ERA which ranks them dead last on the season. The last 17 times the Braves were off a loss they have gone 12-5. The Nationals are off back to back wins but this followed a 1-5 run! Conversely, the Braves are off a loss but have been one of the hottest teams in the majors for many weeks now. Give me the big dog in this spot. 10* ATLANTA |
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09-13-19 | North Carolina v. Wake Forest OVER 65 | Top | 18-24 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #103 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs North Carolina Tar Heels @ 6 ET - There is a chance of rain in the Winston-Salem area this evening. However, winds are expected to be 10 mph or less and it is the wind that is the biggest factor when it comes to weather having an impact on totals. North Carolina enters this game riding high after back to back wins which have included 4th quarter comebacks from an inexperienced QB whom is quickly growing up! There is a new atmosphere in the Tar Heels lockerroom as they have responded very well to the coaching changes coming into this season. That said, I look for the Demon Deacons to struggle to slow them down. However, Wake Forest will be able to move the ball quite well on a still questionable UNC defense. North Carolina gave up 34 points per game last season. Also, the Tar Heels allowed nearly 500 yards in last week's win over Miami. Wake Forest has averaged 34 points per game the past two seasons and they've also looked very strong on that side of the ball early this season as well. However, they allowed 33 points per game last season and also lost the majority of their starters from that defense. The Demon Deacons allowed 20 first downs to a bad Rice team last week. I love their offense here matched up against the UNC defense but I don't trust the Wake Forest defense. Likewise, the Tar Heels defense is still in a full-on rebuild mode and the Demon Deacons offense should continue piling up the points this week. 10* OVER the total in Wake Forest |
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09-13-19 | Pirates v. Cubs OVER 10.5 | Top | 8-17 | Win | 100 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #951 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs @ 4:05 ET - The wind is expecting to be blowing out to center when this game first gets started. It is then expected to shift more toward a westerly direction which will have it blowing out toward right field for the remainder of the game. It will be a rather strong wind and is certain to help the hitters in this one. Jon Lester gets the start for the Cubs in this one and he has good numbers against the Pirates this season. However, in a hitter-friendly environment and an afternoon game at Wrigley Field, I look for Lester to get lit up. Keep in mind, after a strong July, Lester has been fading ever since as he has a 6.91 ERA in his last 8 starts. Steven Brault gets the start for the Pirates and one thing I want to mention before getting into his pitching stats is that he is also a threat with his bat. Brault is hitting .314 on the season! Though he is 4-0 in his road starts this season, Brault is getting hit at a .280 clip away from home. Also, the Pirates lefty allowed 4 earned runs in 3 innings in his lone start at Wrigley Field this season. Brault entered this season with a 5.87 ERA in his 7 career outings (2 starts) at Wrigley Field and the Cubs have hit over .300 against him in his career. The over is 12-5-2 in the Pirates last 19 games. The over is 25-11 in Pittsburgh's games against left-handed starters this season. 10* OVER the total in Chicago Cubs |
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09-12-19 | Bucs +7 v. Panthers | Top | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #101 Thursday 10* Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+) @ Carolina Panthers @ 8:20 ET - With their failure to cover last week's game, the Panthers are on a 2-7 ATS run dating back to last season. Carolina's Cam Newton insists he is healthy but he continues to avoid throwing the deep ball. There are many questioning the health of his shoulder. The Buccaneers are also off a non-covering loss but statistically they should not have lost the game by 14 points. The difference in the game was two Bucs picks returned for touchdowns. With both teams off sub-par performances last week I like having the big dog in this spot on a short week. Carolina is looking to get into the win column in a back to back home game situation but the way Newton looks right now they will be in a dogfight just to win this game let alone cover the spread. I know Jameis Winston is off an ugly game for Tampa Bay but if you review his numbers through his career he has shown a knack for bouncing back after a disastrous game and certainly last week's game falls into that category. Look for him to be much better in week two. Carolina is on a 1-8 SU run and that includes losing 4 in a row at home. So not only are the Panthers being asked to win this game but also cover the 7 points. I just don't see that happening. The home team covered both match-ups last season but previously the road team was 7-1 ATS in the 8 meetings between these teams in the 4 prior seasons. In other words, consider last season an aberration and look for the ATS road dominance to resume. The Buccaneers allowed only about 250 yards last week and, despite the scoreboard result, have new life under head coach Bruce Arians. 10* TAMPA BAY |
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09-12-19 | Braves v. Phillies +113 | Top | 5-9 | Win | 113 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #912 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (+) vs Atlanta Braves @ 7:15 ET - Both Julio Teheran and Drew Smyly enter this outing off strong recent starts. The edge the Phillies have, in addition to home field, is that the Braves have very little familiarity with Smyly because his entire career (until coming to Philly) had been spent in the American League. Other than Josh Donaldson, whom Smyly will have to be very careful with, the Braves have only a total of 14 at bats against Smyly! As for Teheran, the Braves right-hander has faced the Phillies plenty of times. Philadelphia has 8 hitters whom all have at least 13 at bats of experience against Teheran. Also, guys like Franco, Harper, Hoskins, Realmuto and Dickerson have enjoyed good success against Teheran. The Phillies are 11-3 the last 14 times they've entered a game off a home loss. Smyly has made 9 starts for the Phillies and they've gone 7-2 in those 9 games. Despite yesterday's loss the Phillies are just 2 games out of the 2nd wild card spot. Also, I mentioned the Phillies response when off a home loss above, there is a tightener to that 11-3 mark also. When Philadelphia is off a home loss in which the Phillies allowed 7 runs or less, they've gone 8-1. That 88% situation is in play here and I look for the Phillies to improve to 8-2 in Smyly's starts as a Phillie. Look for Philly hitters to continue their long-term success against Teheran. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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09-12-19 | Cardinals v. Rockies OVER 12.5 | Top | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #905 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs St Louis Cardinals @ 3:10 ET - The very first numbers that popped up on this one had a 13.5 as the total and it is now down to a 12.5 as of very early Thursday morning. This is not a surprise given the past two games have both been extremely low-scoring but I am taking advantage of the value here. This is an afternoon game at hitter-friendly Coors Field and the air is particularly dry here for this one and the ball is going to be jumping off bats. That said, the key is whether or not we can expect a lot of contact and, with these two pitchers on the mound, I say absolutely! Miles Mikolas is 3-8 with a 5.83 ERA in his road starts this season and teams are hitting .301 against him in his 15 away starts. Tim Melville has pitched in only 10 MLB games (7 starts) in his career but he has a 6.82 ERA and has been hit at over a .300 clip in those outings. That said, it comes at no surprise that he has struggled in his limited action at Coors Field this season too. More of the same expected here. This game will play out nothing like the past two games. The teams combined to go 1 for 17 with runners in scoring position last night and they left 18 men on base. I love coming back with an over after a game like that as it is a situation that has worked out well for me through the years particularly when the pitching match-up is conducive to a slugfest. 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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09-11-19 | Cardinals v. Rockies OVER 13.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Rotation #957 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs St Louis Cardinals @ 8:40 ET - After yesterday's very rare pitchers duel at Colorado, look for a normal slugfest at Coors Field tonight. The Rockies are sending Antonio Senzatela to the mound and he has a ridiculous 16.55 ERA in his last 6 starts. Also, he entered this season with a 5.04 ERA in home outings in his first two seasons with the Rockies. This season he has struggled whether home or away as he has an ERA above 7.16 both at and away from Coors Field. The Cardinals will get to him early and often in this one! As for St Louis starter Dakota Hudson, he has been in great current form. One of the few places that can completely take a pitcher out of rhythm however is pitching at Coors Field. Also, he does have a 4.01 ERA on the road this season and Hudson compiled a 5.54 ERA away from home last season. In other words, he has been much stronger at home than on the road thusfar in his career. In his lone appearance in Denver, Hudson allowed 3 earned runs in just a third of an inning. He'll be tested again early in this one and the bats come back to life for both these teams today after yesterday's rare result. Keep in mind, prior to yesterday's loss the Cards had won 23 of their past 30 games and scored an average of 6.5 runs per game in those 23 victories! The Rockies are averaging 6.2 runs per game at home this season and will bounce back at the plate here. Prior to yesterday's truly unusual result, the over was 11-4 in the last 15 meetings between these teams. That normal trending resumes here! 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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09-10-19 | Diamondbacks +116 v. Mets | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Rotation #905 Tuesday 10* Top Play Arizona Diamondbacks Money Line (+) @ New York Mets @ 7:10 ET - The Diamondbacks are off back to back losses after losing 3-1 to Jacob deGrom and the Mets last night. That is noteworthy here as Arizona is 8-3 the last 11 times they've entered a game off back to back losses. Also, the Diamondbacks were on an 11-1 run prior to the back to back losses. Look for Arizona to bounce right back here courtesy of a significant pitching edge here. Their recent numbers, on the surface, don't look that much different but when you dig deeper you find that Zac Gallen truly rates big edges over Zack Wheeler in terms of current form heading into this one. Wheeler has allowed 14 hits and walked 5 in his past two starts so he was very fortunate to allow a total of only 2 earned runs in those 11 innings. In fact Wheeler has nearly as many walks as strikeouts in his last 3 starts combined. Conversely, Gallen is off a 7-inning 1-hit performance and he has struck out 22 while walking just 4 in his last 3 starts. Included in the 3-game stretch was the Dodgers and Brewers and Gallen has allowed a total of just 12 hits in 17 innings. The Diamondbacks are 12-6 this season in games on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 runs. The Mets are on an 88-140 run, including 34-47 this season, when facing a team with a winning record. 10* ARIZONA |
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09-10-19 | Braves v. Phillies OVER 9.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Rotation #901 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves @ 7:05 ET - The Phillies Jason Vargas has been crushed by the Braves 3 of the last 5 times he has faced them. That includes this season too when Vargas couldn't even get out of the first inning. Likewise, Atlanta's Max Fried has had issues when facing the Phillies. He has made two starts against Philadelphia this season and has allowed 10 runs (9 earned) in 10 innings of work. The long ball has hurt Fried when facing the Phillies as he has given up 4 homers in those 10 innings. These are two very potent lineups and I look for Philadelphia to respond at home after getting blown out 7-2 last night. However, I don't trust Vargas against this potent Braves lineup and that is why my play here is the over rather than the Phillies as a home dog. Lets not forget the Phillies bullpen has been shaky too this season. Philadelphia's pen ranks in the bottom of the third in the majors based on ERA and the Atlanta bullpen ranks only in the middle of the pack. In other words, look for runs early, often, and throughout this contest. With yesterday's push, the over is now 9-3-1 in the 13 games between these teams this season. Look for today's to "push" too...right over the total that is! Just too many big sticks in both of these lineups and each team has a number of hitters that have given these starting pitchers - and the bullpen arms too - a lot of trouble this season. The over is 14-7 this season when the Braves are a road favorite of -125 or more. The over is 5-2 this season when the Phillies are a home underdog of +125 or more. 10* OVER the total in Philadelphia |
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09-09-19 | Texans v. Saints -6.5 | Top | 28-30 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #480 Monday 10* Top Play New Orleans Saints (-) vs Houston Texans @ 7:10 ET - In the history of the NFL it is hard to think of many teams that feel more "cheated" entering a season than the Saints. Without a doubt, that infamous non-call when their receiver was "mugged" by a Rams cornerback was the difference in why Los Angeles went to the Super Bowl and New Orleans stayed at home. Now the Saints get the perfect chance to show the World what a great Super Bowl we could have watched last season had it been (as it should have been) the Saints against the Patriots instead of the snooze-fest we witnessed due to one of the worst Super Bowl coaching performances (thanks Sean McVay) ever seen. The point is that New Orleans comes into this game ready to flex their muscles in what, to them, is much more than just a season opener or home opener as this is a chance to show the entire NFL what they missed out on last February. I know the Saints are known for slow starts in season openers but this year's situation is about as unique as it gets and you're going to see an extremely focused and well-prepared New Orleans team on both sides of the ball as they have been waiting to get back on the field for 8 months since their unbelievable OT loss to LA in January. The Texans are a playoff team from last season but they're expected to be a .500 team this season and keep in mind they went 4-12 in 2017. The Saints have averaged a dozen regular season wins per game the past two seasons. They also have the home field edge here. That said, the ability to get New Orleans at less than 7 (plenty of 6.5 out there as of early Monday morning) is a great value. The Saints do have a negative here in that they have the aforementioned Rams on deck BUT, even with that revenge game looming, there is no way that New Orleans is going to overlook facing a playoff team in their home opener. The Saints have been waiting a long time to get rid of the bad taste of that "playoff ripoff" from January. Look for the Texans to drop to 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against NFC opponents as the Saints improve to 9-0 SU (and 7-2 ATS) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. 10* NEW ORLEANS |
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09-09-19 | Yankees v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #961 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees @ 7:10 ET - 15 runs were scored in yesterday's game and I fully expect another wild one on Monday. Although Boston's Eduardo Rodriguez has pitched well this season, he has struggled against the Yankees. Rodriguez should have a very high ERA against New York this season but he has been fortunate to work out of some major jams. He won't be so fortunate here because, when a pitcher has allowed 29 baserunners in just 17 and 2/3 innings, it eventually catches up with him! Rodriguez has had trouble consistently retiring Yankees hitters this season. As for New York starter James Paxton, he enters this start on a very strong run over his past seven starts. However, the southpaw gave up 7 earned runs in just 4 innings in his lone start at Fenway Park. Back in July Paxton got rocked in Boston and, though he struck out 9, he also allowed 4 homers in just 4 innings in that rough outing. I expect another slugfest tonight at Fenway Park with the wind possibly also aiding the cause as it will likely be directed toward left field for this one. That said, plenty of right-handed power in each lineup teeing off against a pair of southpaw starters in this one. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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09-09-19 | Braves v. Phillies -131 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -131 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #952 Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) vs Atlanta Braves @ 7:05 ET - Phillies ace Aaron Nola gets the start in this one. He has a 2.58 ERA in his last 15 starts and that is even including a rare tough outing in his most recent start. Coming off a tough outing at Cincinnati, look for Nola to bounce back big at home on Monday. Nola is 6-1 with a 2.85 ERA at Citizens Bank Park this season. Nola is also 3-0 in his 4 starts against the Braves this season and he has held Atlanta to a .211 batting average on the year. The Braves are starting Mike Foltneywicz in this one. The Atlanta right-hander is having a tough season and has a 5.97 ERA in his dozen night starts this season. Foltneywicz has shown this pattern in recent seasons as his ERA over the past 3 seasons was also 2 runs higher in night games compared to day games. Considering the above as well as the home field edge and also the fact that the Phillies are now just 2 games out of the 2nd Wild Card spot after back to back wins this weekend, you have a great value spot on the home team as a short money line favorite with a high-quality pitcher getting the start. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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09-08-19 | Giants v. Cowboys OVER 45 | Top | 17-35 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #475 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants @ 4:25 ET - The Giants turned into an over machine as the season went on last year going 9-4-1 in their final 14 games. I don't see that "machine" being slowed down here either. The defense is very suspect still, just like last season, and they face a Dallas team whose HC Jason Garrett has been "called out" for conservative play-calling. The fact is that the Cowboys need to open up the playbook more and be a little more aggressive if they're going to truly get to the "next level". With Dallas hosting a Giants team possessing a weak defense, this is the ideal spot for the Cowboys to "open it up" and put on quite the display on offense. However, don't be surprised if the Giants are able to "trade scores" most of the way with the Cowboys in this one. Eli Manning has something to prove this season and the Giants have averaged 249 passing yards per game in their last 3 against Dallas. The Cowboys have scored an average of 29 points per game in their last 3 meetings with New York and they have the added spark of Ezekiel Elliott coming back just in time to be on board for Game 1 of the regular season. There were 85 passing attempts compared to 47 rushing attempts when these teams met to wrap up last season and that was a wild 36-35 game. This one won't be quite so "wild" but should total more than enough points for it to get over the reasonable number here. I mentioned the Giants over trend above and also note the Cowboys are 6-2 to the over in their past 8 home games. Expect more of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Dallas |
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09-08-19 | Falcons +3.5 v. Vikings | Top | 12-28 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #453 Sunday 10* Top Play Atlanta Falcons (+) @ Minnesota Vikings @ 1 ET - It looks easy, right? Take the home team laying a short number and you're "home free" as you cash in later at the betting window. Not so fast. The Vikings were down across the board last season statistically and didn't have a whole lot of areas to point to as to why. Also, their QB (Kirk Cousins) has an overall losing record in his career. As for the Falcons, they also are off a sub-par season but were done in by some key September injuries too. I like the weapons they have for QB Matt Ryan and also I'll take him any day of the week over Cousins whom I just don't trust at all in big games. Certainly this is a big game and I love having the 3.5 points with an Atlanta team that could be playoff bound this season. The Falcons have shored up their offensive line and I expect the defense, now healthier, to be much better under defensive-minded head coach Dan Quinn. Both teams have plenty of hunger for this season after last year's disappointment but Atlanta also has some momentum after winning each of their final 3 games last season. The Vikings lost 3 of their final 5 games and, overall, had a very disappointing 2nd half of the season. The Falcons are 4-1 ATS (and 5-0 SU!) the past two seasons in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points. An outright upset here would not surprise but I am grabbing the 3.5 points currently being offered as of very early Sunday morning. The Vikings are 2-6 ATS their last 8 games in which their line ranged from +3 to a -3. In this particular case the line is a 1/2 point outside that range but the reason I mention it is because it supports the fact that Cousins and his Minnesota teammates tend to fall short at the betting window in games projected to be a tight battle. This one certainly fits the bill in that regard and I am riding with Ryan and the underdog Falcons in this one. 10* ATLANTA |
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09-07-19 | LSU -6.5 v. Texas | Top | 45-38 | Win | 100 | 25 h 36 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #369 Saturday 10* Top Play LSU Tigers (-) @ Texas Longhorns @ 7:30 ET - Both teams are off easy wins last week as they faced easy opponents. That said, it is hard to say we know much about either team at this point since neither team faced a true test. However, what I do know is that Texas lost a lot of key players on both sides of the ball from last season and I felt coming into this season that some strong value would be available going against them early when they're facing a strong opponent. Certainly LSU fits into that category very well. In my mind, the Horns are still highly ranked in part because of what they did last season and whom their QB is. However, the Longhorns lost so much from last season's team. As for the Tigers I feel the best is yet to come and their time has arrived. Their offense got stronger and stronger as the season went on as QB Joe Burrow got more and more comfortable. Unlike Texas, LSU returned 8 starters on each side of the ball and this should be reflect in more early-season continuity as well. The fact this game is at Texas is helping to give us value as the Tigers would be a very large favorite if this game was at Baton Rouge. With LSU being on the road we've got a very manageable number to work with and I'll lay it! The Tigers are 3-1 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points and also a long-term 4-1 ATS against Big 12 opponents. The Longhorns are 0-5 ATS the past two seasons in a home game where the total is between 56.5 and 63 points. Texas lost too much from last season while the Tigers are much stronger than they were last season in my opinion. 10* LSU |
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09-07-19 | Phillies v. Mets OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #957 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 7:10 ET - Both teams have shaky bullpens but we've seen this total drop from a 9 to an 8.5 because of the Bryce Harper situation. Though X-rays were negative he may not play today due to trouble gripping the bat after being nailed on the hand by a Steven Matz pitch last night. Keep in mind, the Phillies have plenty of other contributors in the lineup other than just Harper. That said, I love the over in this spot because Philadelphia just faced Marcus Stroman last weekend and though he only allowed 2 earned runs he did allowed 7 hits in 6 innings. Keep in mind August was his first month with the Mets and he got hit at a .301 clip last month. The point is that they adjustment to the National League has not gone well for Stroman and I expect the Phillies potent lineup to do some damage in this one. However, the issue for the Phillies is the fact that Drew Smyly is on the mound. He is 3-6 with a 6.65 ERA on the season and has been struggling in recent weeks for Philly. The southpaw has allowed 9 homers in his last 25.1 innings. The over is a perfect 4-0 in New York's last 4 games. Also, the Mets have won 5 of their past 7 games thanks in large part to great production from their lineup as they have scored an average of 7 runs per game their past 7 games. With this total dropping to an 8.5, a pair of sub-par bullpens, and two starting pitchers each struggling in many of their outings since changing teams, I look for plenty of runs in this one. 10* OVER the total in the New York Mets |
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09-07-19 | Calgary v. Edmonton OVER 47 | Top | 33-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #687 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Edmonton Eskimos @ Calgary Flames @ 7 ET - It looks like it was an easy under last week when these same teams met on Monday in Calgary but it truly wasn't. The final score of the game took place on the very FIRST play of the fourth quarter and that brought the game total to 34 points but then there was no more scoring in the final 15 minutes of action. That is not the big story though as the bigger story was the fact that in terms of field goals and touchdowns there were EIGHT scores but the problem for over players was that SIX were field goals and only TWO were touchdowns. Once again, just like last week, the team swill move the ball quite well but this time we'll have more points to show for it. The Stampeders got Bo Levi Mitchell back last week and he threw for 263 yards while running back KaDeem Carey ran for 143 yards. Edmonton's defense will again be put to the test this week. The difference this week though is that, at home, the Eskimos score much better. QB Trevor Harris completed 77% of his passes last week for over 200 yards but Edmonton managed only three field goals and zero touchdowns. That won't happen again as they respond big at home and I look for Harris to really make this game all about an aerial assault on his part. There will be a ton of big passing from the home team in this one. The over improves to 3-0 this season when the Eskimos are a home favorite of 7 points or less. Calgary's over also improves to 3-0 in road games where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points. 10* OVER the total in Edmonton |
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09-07-19 | San Diego State v. UCLA OVER 44.5 | Top | 23-14 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 52 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #349 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in UCLA Bruins vs San Diego State Aztecs @ 4:15 ET - The Bruins are off a disgusting result at Cincinnati last week while the Aztecs are off a very ugly win over an FCS team last week. The result now is an expectation of very little points here. The fact is this total has been pushed too low and it is time to step in and take advantage. The biggest change you often see in a season is how teams respond in week 2 compared to week 1. Rest assured, both teams will look much better on offense this week than they did last week. At the same time, note that San Diego State is truly trying to change things up on offense this season and not be so run-dominant as they have been in recent years. They should enjoy plenty of success against a Bruins defense that was a weakness last season and also allowed over 400 yards to the Bearcats last week. As for the Bruins offense, that is supposed to be their strength under Chip Kelly and note that San Diego State has had to reload with a lot of new starters on defense. As for the UCLA defense they have issues with their front seven (particularly at linebacker) where they're dealing with some injury and suspension issues. The Bruins come in with extra rest as they are off a Thursday game and that is a situation that has seen them go 9-4 to the lover long-term. In terms of short-term trending, UCLA is 4-2 to the over when off a non-conference game. As for the Aztecs, they are 6-2 to the over long-term when off a game in which they allowed 6 points or less. In terms of short-term trending that is very relevant here as well, the over is 5-2 when San Diego State is off a game in which they allowed 14 points or less. 10* OVER the total in UCLA |
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09-06-19 | Indians v. Twins OVER 10.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #923 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Indians @ 8:10 ET - The Twins managed just 2 runs yesterday in their win over the Red Sox. The Indians managed just 1 run yesterday in their loss to the White Sox. Both these teams, of course, have much more potent lineups than what yesterday's results showed. I love coming back with the over in a situation like this as both teams return to normal "pounding of the ball" the very next day. The Twins are a very potent team when at home. In fact, 15 of their past 20 games have gone over the total when they are in Minneapolis. As for the Indians, the over was on a 5-0 run in their games prior to yesterday's disappointing home loss to the White Sox. I fully expect the Indians bats to get back on track here. I know Michael Pineda has good numbers for the Twins but he has struggled in his past two home starts. Also, he recently has faced a number of light-hitting teams. He is going to face a much bigger challenge here so don't let the big number (currently 10.5) on this total concern you. As for Adam Plutko, the Indians right-hander got rocked at Target Field last month. Also, he has been hit 68 points higher in road games than home games this season and 94 points higher in night games compared to day games. On the road for this one and under the lights in Minnesota, look for Plutko's struggles to continue. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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09-06-19 | Wake Forest -19 v. Rice | Top | 41-21 | Win | 100 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #301 Friday 10* Top Play Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-) @ Rice Owls @ 8 ET - The Demon Deacons have plenty of momentum after scoring late to beat a solid Utah State last week. Wake Forest has a quick strike offense and loves to play fast. Their average scoring drive last week was less than a 2 and 1/2 minutes. This presents a match-up problem for a Rice team that scored only 7 points last week. Yes that game was on the road and this one is at home for the Owls. However, Rice is actually a poor 1-6 ATS when they are at home following a game in which they scored less than 10 points. Also, last season the Demon Deacons were up 42-3 by halftime of their game against the Owls. Wake Forest then cruised to the 56-24 victory. That said, I like the value here with the Demon Deacons laying less points in this one because it is on the road. The fact is that, even though it is on the road, Wake Forest has edges all over the field and, just as was the case in last season's match-up, the Owls will not be able to keep up on the scoreboard. I also like the fact that the Demon Deacons failed to cover last week while Rice had an easy ATS cover. Now the roles reverse this week! 10* WAKE FOREST |
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09-06-19 | BC v. Montreal OVER 50 | Top | 16-21 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #681 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Montreal Alouettes vs BC Lions @ 7:30 ET - Both teams are off bye weeks which were preceded by games that went under the total. However, BC is 4-2 to the over when coming off a bye week. Also, Montreal's game at Toronto two weeks ago had no business staying under the total. The teams combined for over 900 yards of offense! Considering that as well as the fact that the Alouettes entered that game on a 4-2 run to the over, I love the over in this match-up. Montreal has now allowed over 100 yards on the ground each of their past two games plus an average of 400 passing yards their past two games! As for the Lions defense, they are allowing 32.1 points per game on the season. Only Toronto has allowed more points per game than BC. Mike Reilly did throw for nearly 300 yards in the Lions low-scoring loss prior to their bye week. They'll put a lot more points on the board in this inter-divisional match-up. This one will be a shootout. 10* OVER the total in Montreal |
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09-05-19 | Packers +3.5 v. Bears | Top | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #451 Thursday 10* Top Play Green Bay Packers (+) @ Chicago Bears @ 8:20 ET - Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are playing this game with a chip on their shoulders and I don't see them being denied. After back to back losing seasons (a rare occurrence) Green Bay also had to look up in the standings at the Bears (another rare occurrence) as Chicago was one of the surprise teams of the NFL last season. This included a key late season win for the Bears over the Packers in Chicago and now it is payback time. In 21 starts against the Bears, Rodgers has a 16-5 SU record. Also, we're seeing this line move toward 3.5 so even a Packers loss by 3 points still gets us in the win column here. We don't even need the SU win that Rodgers has so often provided against Chicago. I like the fact that the Packers outgained the Bears in their two games combined last season even though Chicago covered both games. That is noteworthy as these teams have met 21 times in the past 10 seasons (1 playoff meeting) and NEVER in these 10 years has there been a 3-0 ATS streak in the series for the Bears. I don't see that changing here either. Look for the Packers new wrinkles in their offense under new head coach Matt LaFleur to keep the Bears defense off balance enough that it will have an impact on the outcome of this game. I like having Rodgers over the Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky. Note that the Chicago signal-caller threw 5 INTs against 4 TDs in his final 3 regular season home starts last season. He and the Bears deserve congrats for their big season last year but they're sneaking up on no one this season and the Packers have had their number for a long time and resume that series dominance starting tonight. 10* GREEN BAY |
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09-05-19 | Twins v. Red Sox OVER 11.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #971 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Minnesota Twins @ 7:10 ET - This total opened up as high as a 12.5 and of course the betting markets are saying how "wrong" the odds makers are and the total has been pounded down to an 11.5 as of very early Thursday morning. Of course long-time followers know how I feel about this and, in typical contrarian fashion, I am fading the line move here and going with the over. I lost with this play last night in large part because the Twins left 10 men on base, hit into 3 double plays, and went 0 for 4 with runners in scoring position. I look for Minnesota to make up for that Thursday. I know Nathan Eovaldi is off a strong start but I am not going to put too much stock into just one start. The Red Sox right-hander has been pounded at a .323 clip and compiled an 8.44 ERA in his 9 games (2 starts) at Fenway Park this season. As for the Twins starter, Martin Perez, he has been on the fade for quite awhile now. He is 2-5 in his last 16 starts and Perez has compiled a 6.24 ERA in these 16 starts. That doesn't bode well for the lefty now facing a potent Red Sox lineup at hitter-friendly Fenway Park. The over is 8-2 in the last 10 starts Perez has made. The over is 35-16 this season when the Red Sox are a favorite in a price range of -100 to -150. This game falls within that range as of early Thursday morning. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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09-04-19 | Twins v. Red Sox OVER 11 | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #919 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Minnesota Twins @ 7:10 ET - This total has been as high as a 11.5 and, of course, looks too high to the casual observer. However, this game has slugfest written all over it and is painted a solid 11 across the board as of early Wednesday morning. I am going with a strong play on the over. Jose Berrios still carries plenty of "name recognition" for the Twins but he has been having mechanical issues and, as of late, is not the "Berrios" that we're use to seeing! Berrios compiled a 7.57 ERA and got rocked at a .333 clip in the month of August. Facing a potent Red Sox lineup at Fenway Park on an evening when the wind is expected to be blowing out is not a good situation for the Twins right-hander to try to right himself. Speaking of pitchers likely to struggle, enter Boston left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez into the equation here. Rodriguez had a 4.87 ERA as of late June. He then had an excellent July but his low ERA in the month of August is an aberration. I say that because the lefty was quite fortunate. Rodriguez was excellent against the Padres at hitter-friendly San Diego and against the downtrodden Orioles. However, in his other 4 August starts Rodriguez allowed 31 hits in 22 and 2/3 innings. Now he faces a potent Twins lineup that did get to him for 4 earned runs in 7 innings when they faced him in mid-June. Now they get a 2nd look at him and he'll be even more hittable in the "round two" match-up for this season. The Twins have a .530 slugging percentage against southpaws this season and that ranks them #1 in the majors. The Red Sox have a .280 batting average against right-handed hurlers this season which ranks them #1 in the majors. You can see why I am expecting at least a dozen runs in this game with great slugfest potential Wednesday. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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09-04-19 | Phillies -125 v. Reds | Top | 5-8 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #903 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) @ Cincinnati Reds @ 6:40 ET - Two teams and two pitchers going in opposite directions. With another win yesterday's game, the Phillies are a perfect 3-0 this month and also have won 5 of their past 7 road games. With their loss yesterday, the Reds have now lost all 3 of their games this month and have lost 6 of their 7 games played in the past 6 days. Cincinnati starter Trevor Bauer got crushed in his final start for the Indians, that ugly effort at KC that sent him packing to the Reds and he hasn't been able to shake it off ever since. Bauer has made 6 starts for Cincinnati and he has gone 1-4 with an 8.40 ERA in those outings. Opponents have hit .311 against Bauer in a Reds uniform. Conversely, the Phillies Aaron Nola continues to pitch like the ace right-hander that he is. Nola is 6-2 with a 2.52 ERA in the dozen starts he has made since July 1st. While the Reds have a losing record against NL East teams this season, the Phillies are 20-11 against NL Central teams on the year. Philly is still very much alive in the NL wild card race while the Reds have seen their already slim hopes completely fade away now after losing 6 of 7 games. You can see the difference in the clubhouse of each of these teams right now and the Phillies domination of the Reds this season continues on Wednesday. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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09-03-19 | Astros v. Brewers OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -130 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #977 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Brewers vs Houston Astros @ 7:40 ET - Jordan Lyles has pitched surprisingly well since coming over to the Brewers from the Pirates. However, Lyles has been hit quite hard in 2 of his last 3 starts (13 hits in 9.1 innings in those two outings) and I foresee the wheels coming off here. That's because Lyles now faces a very potent Astros lineup and I expect a similar start to his outing against the Nationals in mid-August when he allowed 5 earned runs in 4 innings. The good news for Milwaukee fans is that they should see plenty of offensive production from the home team in this one as well. Zack Greinke gets the start for the Astros and has struggled in his two most recent outings...particularly compared to his standards. Greinke has allowed 8 runs (7 earned) on 16 hits in 12.1 innings. After yesterday's 3-2 game that was a pitchers duel, look for both lineups to explode today. The Astros are one of the top slugging teams (3rd out of 30) in the majors when on the road. The Brewers have a respectable .450 slugging percentage in home games which ranks in the top half of the majors. 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee |
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09-03-19 | Marlins +164 v. Pirates | Top | 5-4 | Win | 164 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #953 Tuesday 10* Top Play Miami Marlins Money Line (+) @ Pittsburgh Pirates @ 7:05 ET - This is a contrarian play all the way but I love the situation. I am well aware of the fact that the Marlins currently have a club-record 15-game road losing streak in progress. However, they hold a huge pitching edge in this match-up, the Pirates are over-valued, and I love the big money line comeback return we are being offered here. Miami is off a road sweep but it came at the hands of the Nationals and their tough pitching staff. The Pirates are off a road series sweep where their bats were on fire but they played those games at Coors Field. Also, though Pittsburgh won their 3 most recent home games, this was preceded by an awful 3-15 stretch in home games for the Pirates. Considering the Pirates have Mitch Keller (8.62 ERA and .362 BAA), does this sound like a team that should be a -175 favorite against anybody? I say the answer to that is a definite no. I know I may be viewed as taking risk by playing the Marlins here but I know this team was off yesterday and is fully focused on ending their road losing streak and they have a huge pitching edge. Earlier this season Sandy Alcantara was only pitching well at home but now he also is pitching well on the road too. The young hurler is really starting to put it all together. In the month of August, Alcantara had a 3.03 ERA and held opponents to a .174 BAA. His month included 3 road starts against quality teams like the Mets and Braves plus a road start at hitter-friendly Coors Field. In those 3 outings he allowed only 9 hits in 19 innings! 10* MIAMI |
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09-02-19 | Notre Dame -18 v. Louisville | Top | 35-17 | Push | 0 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
ESPN Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #217 Monday 10* Top Play Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Louisville Cardinals @ 8 ET - I like the hiring of Scott Satterfield as the new head coach for Louisville and, eventually, he is going to lead the Cardinals back to success. However, this program is in a complete rebuild right now after last year's disastrous 2-10 campaign. Satterfield had great success at Appalachian State but let's go back to his first year there for comparison's sake. The Mountaineers started the season 2-8 in their first 10 games under Satterfield. Their opening game that season saw them get blasted 30 to 6. Satterfield had his work cut out for him then and the same holds true here. He is known as a strong offensive mind but they've had to simplify the offense this season for QB Jawon Pass. Mistakes were too prevalent last season and now the Cardinals open their new season facing a tough Notre Dame team that is anxious to finally have a chance to put last season's playoff beatdown (versus Clemson) behind them. The Fighting Irish have been waiting ever since January for someone to punch in the mouth. Now that "someone" is Louisville and the Irish are the better team all over the field in this game. They are so explosive on offense thanks to QB Book and they are strong in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Notre Dame will beat the Cardinals at the point of attack all game long and this one turns into a road rout. Louisville is 2-9 ATS the last 11 times they have been an underdog. In games when the total is between 49.5 and 56 points Notre Dame is 9-4 ATS the past two seasons. The Irish allowed just 18 points per game while the Cardinals allowed an average of 57 points per game their final 7 games of last season. 10* NOTRE DAME |
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09-02-19 | Edmonton v. Calgary OVER 47 | Top | 9-25 | Loss | -116 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #693 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Calgary Stampeders vs Edmonton Eskimos @ 4:30 ET - I am well aware of the fact that this is a fierce rivalry game and these types of games tend to be lower scoring. However, this total is simply far too low given the situation. The Eskimos Trevor Harris continues to light it up through the air and leads the CFL in passing yards. The Stampeders are getting a boost this week with the return of their starting QB Bo Levi Mitchell. Calgary will be taking on an Edmonton defense that has allowed an average of 30 points the past two weeks. As for the Stamps defense, they entered last week's bye having allowed an average of 33 points per game their past two games. These teams met a month ago and Calgary won 24-18 but the Eskimos got 373 passing yards from Harris in that game and certainly should have scored much more than 18 points. That low-scoring result is helping to give us value here with Monday's total. This total has dropped to as low as a 47 after opening up above a 50. I'll take the extra value as Mitchell couldn't wait to get back on the field and it helps that his return comes at home while I also don't see the weekly aerial assault display from Harris slowing down here. Plenty of points in this one. 10* OVER the total in Calgary |
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09-02-19 | Giants v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -111 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #905 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in St Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants @ 2:15 ET - Opponents are hitting .295 against Adam Wainwright this month. Also, he has walked 9 in his last 3 home starts even though he has only averaged 5 innings per start in those outings. The Giants enter this game having averaged scoring 6.4 runs per game in their past 9 road games. The Cardinals are coming off back to back double headers against the Reds as they had to play two both Saturday and Sunday. Of course that is not good for a bullpen. With Wainwright likely in line for another early exit that could spell trouble here. San Francisco also certainly has pitching concerns of their own here. The Giants start Tyler Beede and he has a 6.27 ERA and has been hit at a .298 clip this season. Look for the right-hander to get pounded here as he also has a 6.11 ERA and has been smashed at a .339 clip in day games this season. He'll get pounded here and Wainwright is not only struggling but also gave up 4 earned runs in his most recent start against the Giants (a year ago). San Francisco, as a road underdog of +150 to +200, is 13-6 to the over this season. The Cardinals are 6-1 to the over in their last 7 games against the Giants. More of the same on tap here. 10* OVER the total in St Louis |
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09-02-19 | Phillies +140 v. Reds | Top | 7-1 | Win | 140 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #903 Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (+) @ Cincinnati Reds @ 2:10 ET - When the first pitch leaves Anthony DeSclafani's hand in this one, the Reds will be beginning their 5th game in a span of 48 hours! It is an odd scheduling quirk but Cincinnati ended up playing a double-header at St Louis BOTH Saturday and Sunday. Now the Reds have an early game Monday which complicates matters for them. Sure the Phillies played last night too but at least they played only 1 game both Saturday and Sunday unlike the crazy schedule Cincinnati has endured over this Labor Day weekend. Overall, in looking at the Monday card this is the only game where you have a legitimate playoff contender that is a sizable dog against a team that is nearly eliminated from the playoff race. When you also factor in the scheduling situation here, this spot offers great line value on Philadelphia. The Reds have only faced Smyly for a total of THREE innings since 2013. The point is they have very little familiarity with him. The Phillies have seen much more of Anthony DeSclafani. Also, the Reds right-hander is off a great start but it came at Miami against a horrible Marlins team. In his first 3 starts in the month of August, DeSclafani allowed 13 earned runs in 14 and 1/3 innings. He has walked 3 batters in each of his last 3 home starts and went only 5 innings in each start. DeSclafani is being overvalued here and so are his Reds teammates. Cincinnati has averaged just 6 hits per game in their past 6 games and has had not more than 7 hits in ANY of those 6 games. The Phillies have averaged 11.5 hits per game in their past 6 games. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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09-01-19 | Houston v. Oklahoma OVER 79.5 | Top | 31-49 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
National TV Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #215 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oklahoma Sooners vs Houston Cougars @ 7:30 ET - The total is a big one but I like the fact that it has gone from the mid-80s earlier this week down to as low as a 79.5 as of early game day morning. That is giving us extra value in a game where I expect very few defensive stops. Houston coach Dana Holgorsen comes over from West Virginia and the Mountaineers had faced the Sooners in each of the past 7 seasons. The theme in those games was "shootouts" and now that Holgorsen is with the high-flying Cougars, I certainly don't see the "theme" changing! Each of the last 3 meetings between Holgorsen's Mountaineers and the Sooners totaled at least 84 points. Also, he couldn't stop OU throughout his tenure at West Virginia and OU scored 44 points or more in each of the last 5 meetings. Yes the Sooners have a new QB but their offense will be unstoppable against this porous Houston defense. The Cougars allowed 37 points per game last season and only return 4 starters on defense. Offensively Houston returns a ton of talent and averaged 44 points per game. The Sooners are hoping for big improvement on defense but it is going to take time. Keep in mind their new defensive coordinator did have "ups and downs" at Ohio State last season. That said, Oklahoma will still be winning games with their offense and their potent attack averaged 48 points per game last season. The over is 5-2 the past two seasons for the Sooners as a favorite of 21.5 to 31 points. The over is 3-1 the past two seasons when the Cougars are an underdog. Oklahoma, against American Athletic conference opponents, has gone 9-1 to the over their last 10 games so they're certainly not known for "holding back" when it comes to scoring big and putting on a beat-down. The Sooners also are 8-3 to the over in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 70 so don't let this big number keep you away. This game could get close to triple digits! 10* OVER the total in Oklahoma |
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09-01-19 | Pirates v. Rockies OVER 13.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -112 | 6 h 54 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #957 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 3:10 ET - Steven Brault gets the start for the Pirates. The Pittsburgh southpaw managed to survive his most recent outing (against the floundering Phillies) despite not having his best stuff. However, when you come to Coors Field on a summer afternoon with low humidity and light winds and you don't have your best stuff you are likely to get pounded. That is what I am expecting here as the Rockies hitters bounce back after managing only 4 runs yesterday. As for the Pirates hitters, they should absolutely stay red hot here. Pittsburgh has won 7 of its last 9 games and a red hot lineup certainly has had something to do with that. In their past 6 wins, the Pirates have scored an average of 10 runs per game and there is certainly nothing average about that! They'll take advantage of facing Jeff Hoffman of Colorado in this one. The Rockies right-hander has a 6.31 ERA in his career and there has been no improvement this season. In his 9 starts this year Hoffman has gone 1-4 with a 7.81 ERA. In his career outings at Coors Field (he has thrown nearly 100 innings there), Hoffman has a 7.60 ERA. The way the Pirates are swinging the sticks this will be another tough outing for him here. 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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09-01-19 | Winnipeg v. Saskatchewan -5 | Top | 17-19 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 33 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #690 Sunday 10* Top Play Saskatchewan Roughriders (-) vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 3 ET - This line was as high as a -7 on the Riders and has dropped down to as low as a -5 as of early game day morning. In my typical preferred contrarian style, I am fading the market move and grabbing the extra line value here. This is Saskatchewan's chance to catch the Blue Bombers in the standings. How can they do that when they are 4 points back? Well the key is that this is the first game of a "home and home" series with the Bombers as they meet again in Winnipeg next week. Saskatchewan also gets the benefit of catching the Blue Bombers without their starting QB and now their RB will miss both games of this series. Andrew Harris was suspended by the league for two games and that certainly will hurt the ground attack of the Bombers. That will put even more pressure on QB Chris Streveler (filling in for the injured Mike Nichols). Yes Streveler was under center for Winnipeg's win last week but he was held under 100 passing yards in that game! The Roughriders, conversely, saw Cody Fajardo have another big game at the pivot for them last week as he threw for 241 yards. Saskatchewan is known as the toughest place for road teams to play in this league and you know it will be rocking for this huge match-up hosting the top team in the division standings. That said, I am happy to lay the small points here in what shapes up to be a home blowout. The Riders are riding a 5-0 SU/ATS win streak heading into this one and I look for the Roughriders to improve to 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home meetings with Winnipeg. 10* SASKATCHEWAN |
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09-01-19 | A's +122 v. Yankees | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 12 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #965 Sunday 10* Top Play Oakland A's Money Line (+) @ New York Yankees @ 1:05 ET - Anyone who played the Yankees should realize they had one of the luckiest wins of the season. No, it wasn't just the fact that they tied it in the bottom of the 8th nor that it was a walk-off win in the 11th. The good fortune was that while the Yankees only left 3 men on base in an 11-inning game, the A's went a ridiculous 1 for 10 with runners in scoring position and left 15 men on base. Not only that, all 15 men on base were in the first 9 innings. It was a game Oakland should have won easily in "regulation time" and yet they couldn't get a clutch hit to save their lives. I love backing teams like this in their very next game when the pitching match-up is right and we have the ideal situation here. JA Happ is a weak link in the Yankees rotation. The left-hander had a rough August and, overall, he is having a bad season which includes a 6.70 ERA since the All Star break. He also got roughed up by Oakland when he most recently faced them. As for the A's, fighting hard for a playoff spot, they bring their "wild card" to the table in this one Sunday as now the long-awaited return of Sean Manaea is here. The southpaw went 12-9 with a 3.52 ERA and held opponents to a .232 batting average last season before he got hurt. Is he ready to come back? Yes! At AAA Las Vegas (and the PCL is a tough league to pitch in) he has dominated. Manaea 3-1 with a 3.21 ERA in his 5 rehab starts and held opponents to a paltry .165 batting average. I'll take the underdog off an unreal loss with the better pitcher on the mound every single time it comes up and that is precisely the situation we have here which is why I am elevating to my highest rating for this one. 10* OAKLAND |
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08-31-19 | Pirates v. Rockies OVER 13.5 | Top | 11-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #913 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 8:10 ET - Yesterday's game totaled 13 runs so it fell just short of going over the total. I like the value here with coming right back with the over after the Pirates stayed hot at the plate Friday but the Rockies scored just 4 runs. Colorado, on their home field, will bounce back today against Joe Musgrove. The Pirates right-hander is off a strong start but he is very inconsistent. He has been unable to string together back to back quality starts. As a result we have great value here with the over. The last 3 times Musgrove has allowed 2 or less earned runs in a start his next start has seen him allow a combined 18 earned runs in 13 and 1/3 innings. As for Tim Melville, the inexperienced right-hander has good numbers so far but his first start was on the road and was strong but he was very fortunate in his 2nd start. Melville did not pitch nearly as well as his 5 scoreless innings would lead you to believe. Keep in mind, this is still a pitcher that has a 6.41 ERA in his 8 games (5 starts) at the MLB level. The Pirates are 6-2 in their last 8 games and have scored an average of 8 runs per game in their past 7 games. Pittsburgh will light Melville up but, at the same time, Musgrove gets rocked by a fired up Rockies team that is off back to back home losses to the Bucs. 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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08-31-19 | Mets v. Phillies +104 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #906 Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (+) vs New York Mets @ 4:05 ET - The Mets exploded late in yesterday's game for a huge win. However, New York entered this series having lost 6 straight games. The Phillies have shown a knack for bouncing back off a loss as they try to remain relevant in the playoff race as the season heads toward September. Philadelphia, since August 13th, has only lost back to back games once. As you can see, the odds favor a bounce back here. Also, the Phillies are a perfect 5-0 the last 5 times they were off a loss in which they allowed double digits in runs scored. I also like the fact that Jason Vargas will be going against his former team in this one. The former Met is off a tough start versus the Pirates but had previously allowed just 2 earned runs in each of his 3 home starts since coming to Philadelphia. You know the Phillies left-hander will be amped up to knock off his former team in a battle between two division rivals (and playoff hopefuls). Vargas should receive plenty of run support here as his teammates go up against Steven Matz. The Mets southpaw has found Citizens Bank Park to be a disaster zone for him! Matz has gotten crushed in 3 of his last 4 starts in Philly. He had one good start but in the other 3 (including each of the last 2), Matz has allowed 21 runs (17 earned) in only 6 and 1/3 innings! The Phillies bounce back after yesterday's embarrassing late innings loss and they blast Matz and the Mets here. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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08-31-19 | Northwestern v. Stanford -6 | Top | 7-17 | Win | 100 | 24 h 49 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #186 Saturday 10* Top Play Stanford Cardinal (-) vs Northwestern Wildcats @ 4 ET - It seems like only yesterday when, here in Vegas where I live now, the first lines for CFB came out for small limit wagers. One of the big movers then (in late May) was on this game as the Cardinal were opened up as a double digit favorite but quickly got bet down to a -7. Now, as of the night before the game, the line is down to a -6 and it is "go time" for me on a game I have had my eyes on ever since the "false move" by the market 3 months ago. Why is the market mistaken here in my opinion? It is because they're looking at a match-up featuring a pair of teams that each won 9 games last season and felt that in an "even match-up" the big line was way off. However, the fact is that this is no longer an "even match-up" because the Wildcats are going to be vastly different from the 2018 team! Losing QB Clayton Thorson (now with the Philadelphia Eagles) has this Northwestern offense looking much weaker and the Wildcats also lost their leading receiver from last year's team. I know what you're thinking...Stanford also lost a lot from last year's team too. However, they have a strong QB in KJ Costello and his guidance for the Cardinal offense will be a key here as the Wildcats struggle to get acclimated to life without QB Thorson. Northwestern has gone 2-5 ATS in non-conference games the past two seasons. The Cardinal are a long-term 5-0 SU (and 4-1 ATS) in August games and also enter this game on a 6-3 ATS run in their last 9 home games. Home field makes a difference here as the Cardinal get payback for a 10 point loss at Northwestern as a 10 point favorite to open up the 2015 season. Of course these players weren't here for that but the coaches were and David Shaw is in his 9th season with Stanford and that is the ONE AND ONLY time that the Cardinal have started a season with a loss under Shaw's watch. It is PAYBACK time here. 10* STANFORD |
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08-31-19 | South Carolina v. North Carolina OVER 62 | Top | 20-24 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 25 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #181 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in North Carolina Tar Heels vs South Carolina Gamecocks @ 3:30 ET - I am aware of the fact that North Carolina has a freshman QB starting here. However, it helps when you're facing a defense that gave up 424 yards per game a season ago. In fact, the Gamecocks could (should) have allowed more than the 27 points per game that they did given those numbers. Plus South Carolina faced some clearly out-classed foes like Akron, Chattanooga, and Coastal Carolina. Against quality foes, the Gamecocks actually allowed 33 points per game game and they'll have their hands full with a Tar Heels team that will continue playing an uptempo style under new offensive coordinator Phil Longo. Look for Longo to have immediate success here as he was very successful with Ole Miss. The issue for the Tar Heels is that it is going to take a long time to turn around this defense. North Carolina was among the worst in the nation last year as they allowed 448 yards and 35 points per game last season. They'll have their hands full facing an SEC offense led by a quality QB in Jake Bentley. Last year, UNC was a dog of 8 or more points 4 times. The over in those contests went a perfect 4-0. South Carolina enters this season having gone a perfect 3-0 to the over in their last 3 regular season games played away from home. One final note here too is that, though the Tar Heels have a new QB this season, nearly the entire remainder of the starters on offense returned this season. They'll be able to score well but, again, that defense can stop no one. 10* OVER the total in North Carolina |
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08-30-19 | Oklahoma State v. Oregon State OVER 71.5 | Top | 52-36 | Win | 100 | 15 h 24 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #159 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oregon State Beavers vs Oklahoma State Cowboys @ 10:30 ET - The Cowboys can light up scoreboards but struggle to stop teams. The Beavers also had one of the worst defenses in the nation last year. As bad as Oregon State's defense is Oklahoma State should score at will here. However, don't be surprised if the Beavers put up plenty of points at home in this one too. Oregon State has a respectable passing attack and moved the ball quite well through the air last season. The Cowboys biggest weakness, easily, is their defense. That said, this one turns into a shootout. Don't let the big number on this total scare you. This total was in the 75 range and has dropped down to the low 70s as of early morning on game day. The Beavers went 2-10 last season. They allowed an average of 49 points per game in those 10 losses. That means if this is just an "average" game for the Oregon State defense and if the point spread is correct here (Oklahoma State -14), you're looking at a 49-35 type game. Of course that is 84 points which crushes this total by double digits and that is what I am expecting here. A double digit cover. The Cowboys went 4-0 in non-conference games last season and averaged 49 points per game in those 4 victories. The over is 4-2 when the Cowboys are a favorite in a range of 10.5 to 21 points. The over is a perfect 6-0 in Beavers non-conference games. Oregon State is without WR Bradford for this game but has plenty of talent at the skill positions to make up for that. What they can't make up for is injuries to some projected starters on defensive at linebacker and on the defensive line plus they have a starting safety listed as questionable for this one. The game turns into a track meet as the Beavers can't stop the Cowboys but the Oklahoma State defense struggles at times throughout this one as well. 10* OVER the total in Oregon State |
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08-30-19 | Mariners v. Rangers OVER 10.5 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -101 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #973 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners @ 8:05 ET - Perfect situation here. Not only did the game yesterday stay under the total but the last time Marco Gonzales faced the Rangers he had a strong start against them but that was in Seattle. Also, Kolby Allard is off a strong start for Texas but that was his first solid outing in 4 starts this season. The point is we're now getting value here because the above factors are part of the reason the markets moved this total down from an 11 to a 10.5 even though it should be going the other way. The Mariners Gonzales has allowed 24 hits in the 16 innings spanning his last 3 road starts. Unlike his home start against the Rangers, he'll get crushed now facing them in Texas where they are a different team at the plate. As for Allard, the former Brave got crushed for 7 runs (6 earned) in his lone home start this season and he also walked 6 in 10 innings in his two starts prior to that ugly outing against the Angels. In other words, he has had one good start but now the markets think he has "found his way" after finally having a good start. I completely disagree and am forecasting that the Mariners get to him early and often in this one. The over is 13-5 this season when Seattle is on the road when the money line is +125 to -125. The over is 3-1 in the 4 career starts Gonzales has made in Arlington. 10* OVER the total in Texas |
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08-30-19 | Mets v. Phillies -131 | Top | 11-5 | Loss | -131 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
No Doubt Blowout Rout - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #954 Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) vs New York Mets @ 7:05 ET - The Phillies opened up in the -150 range but have dropped to the -130 range as of very early game day morning. This is offering great value to Philadelphia with their ace on the mound. I know that Zach Wheeler has had success in recent starts at Philadelphia but he is currently in poor current form. Not only did he allow 6 earned runs in just 5 innings when the Mets hosted the Phillies early last month, Wheeler enters this start with a 6.75 ERA in his last 3 starts. Conversely, the Phillies Aaron Nola continues his domination. The Phils right-hander is 6-3 with a 2.27 ERA in his last 13 starts. He has allowed 2 runs or less in 9 of his last 13 starts. He'll take advantage of facing a Mets team that has lost 6 straight games. While New York is 0-6 their last 6 games, the Phillies are 6-3 their last 9 home games. I know that in a key match-up with playoff implications it is enticing to the grab the dog here but this is a classic case of "hot versus not" as it relates to both the team match-up and the starting pitching match-up in this one. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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08-29-19 | Pirates v. Rockies OVER 14 | Top | 11-8 | Win | 100 | 14 h 4 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #905 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 8:40 ET - With this total set at a 14 it may scare away over players. However, as one digs deeper into this match-up, the fact is that 20 runs tonight would not be a surprise. The Rockies Chi Chi Gonzalez is 0-5 with a 6.43 ERA this season. He walked 6 in just 4 and 1/3 innings in his most recent start. Also, he has allowed 8 homers in his last 26 innings on the mound. Of course too many walks and too many homers is a dangerous combo and Gonzalez is likely to struggle again tonight on a hot late summer night in Colorado. The Pirates counter with Trevor Williams. The Pittsburgh right-hander got off to a decent start since this season with a respectable spring. However, it has been all downhill in the summer months for Williams. He has a 7.21 ERA since June 1st and pitching at hitter-friendly Coors Field is unlikely to help matters! Behind Williams is a Pirates bullpen that ranks as one of the worst in baseball. As for the Rockies bullpen, they have struggled at home (6.00 ERA) as you would expect. The over is 6-1 in Pittsburgh's last 7 road games. The over is 38-22 when the Pirates money line is +125 to -125. The over is 11-3 in Rockies Thursday games this season. The over is 8-1 in the last 9 starts made by Williams and this one, despite the high number posted, is destined to fly over the total as well. 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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08-29-19 | UCLA v. Cincinnati OVER 57 | Top | 14-24 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 37 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #133 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cincinnati Bearcats vs UCLA Bruins @ 7 ET - The Bruins return a lot on both sides of the ball. That is likely good news for the offense which did progress as the season went on last year. However, the defense was abysmal last year so a lot of returnees is not necessarily a good thing. This is a revenge game for UCLA as they lost 26-17 at home against the Bearcats last season. To exact revenge the Bruins will have to do it with their offense. Yes, Cincinnati had great numbers on both sides of the ball last season but they head into this season having lost 3 of 4 starters from the defensive line. The offense returns a ton of talent from last season's potent Bearcats squad. Hence, the play on the over here. This total opened up in the 62 range but has fallen to the 57 range and, in typical contrarian fashion, I am taking advantage of the line move and playing the over in this one. Very nice weather expected in Cincinnati for this one as well. The past two seasons the Bruins played 6 games on turf and the over went 5-1 in those games. The Bearcats, as a home favorite of 7 points or less, have gone 3-1 to the over the past two seasons. In summary, I expect the Bruins to be much better in Chip Kelly's second year at the helm but I still don't trust their defense. Look for plenty of points in this one as the Cincinnati offense picks up right where it left off last season but the Bearcats D struggles some due to personnel losses in the trenches. 10* OVER the total in Cincinnati |
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08-29-19 | A's -1.5 v. Royals | Top | 9-8 | Loss | -125 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator RL Rout - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #913 Thursday 10* Top Play Oakland A's Run Line -1.5 -125 @ Kansas City Royals @ 1:15 ET - The A's are off a 4-2 loss to the Royals yesterday. Look for an immediate bounce back Thursday. Kansas City entered that game having lost 23 of their past 30 games! Also, Oakland is a perfect 7-0 the last 7 times they have been off a loss by a margin of 3 runs or less. Of course the A's are a huge money line favorite here but we can get value and lay a much smaller price by taking Oakland on the run line in this one. The last 6 times the A's were off a loss by margin of 3 or less runs they have won their next game by a margin of 2 or more runs all 6 times! The Athletics Chris Bassitt is 7-2 with a 2.96 ERA in his 11 day game starts this season. The Royals Glenn Sparkman is 1-5 with a 5.87 ERA and a .314 BAA in his 8 day game appearances this season. The KC right-hander has been hit at a .314 clip in afternoon games. Look for a road rout in this one. The A's were 18-8 their last 26 prior to yesterday's loss. 12 of the Athletics last 15 wins have come by 2 or more runs and this one should as well. 10* OAKLAND Run Line -1.5 runs |
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08-28-19 | Twins v. White Sox OVER 10.5 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #965 Wednesday 10* OVER the total in Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins @ 8:10 ET - The Twins Jake Odorizzi has been great in day games this season but his night games have seen him compile an ERA that is 2.5 runs higher! Is it a fluke? Absolutely not, his ERA was about 2 runs higher in night games in 2018 and about a run higher in 2017. In other words, we're getting some extra value here since there is no real shading given to the total for that factor but there absolutely should be. This is particularly true because Odorizzi has been "on the fade" for awhile too as he compiled a 7.43 ERA in his 5 July starts. In his past two August starts, the Twins right-hander has allowed 7 runs (6 earned) in less than 11 innings of work and his most recent outing was against the White Sox. Now they get a quick "second look" at him and this time they face him in Chicago which is a big edge for them. Certainly the White Sox are going to need all the runs they can get here as their own starter tonight is likely to get rocked. Ross Detwiler is off a solid start in his most recent outing but that is rare. In his prior two appearances the southpaw got hammered for 8 earned runs in less than 8 innings of work. Detwiler is getting hit at a .302 clip this season and this will be the fourth time since late June that he is facing the Twins. This is a big edge for the Minnesota lineup. In terms of the weather this evening, a west wind is expected and will be blowing out toward left field for this one. Even including last night's low-scoring win, Twins games are on a 23-11 run to the over. Look for that trend to resume here. 10* OVER the total in Chicago White Sox |
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08-28-19 | Pirates v. Phillies -136 | Top | 3-12 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
ACTION on this wager - make the bet without listing starting pitchers: No Doubt Blowout Rout - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #954 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 6:05 ET - The Phillies are being undervalued here as home field certainly carries some importance in this match-up. Despite the disappointment of last night's loss on an error on what would have been an inning-ending double play in the top of the 9th, the Phillies are certainly not out of the post-season race. Former Pirates Dickerson and Rodriguez played key roles in rallying for the win in Monday's game and they'll help lead a bounce back Wednesday as well after Tuesday's disappointment. As for Pittsburgh, this is a team that is 20 games below .500 on the season and dead last in the National League Central. When you look at this match-up from that standpoint, a lot of line value is being offered to the Phillies as a rather short home favorite here. Pittsburgh is coming off a successful series at home against the Reds this past weekend but, even with a rare road win Tuesday, the Pirates are still a horrible 5-17 in their past 22 road games! Philadelphia is back home where they had won 9 of their past 14 games at Citizens Bank Park prior to last night's loss on a missed catch error. The Phillies are 36-22 this season as a home favorite of -110 or higher. Philadelphia's Vince Velasquez is fired up and ready to bounce back after he allowed a 7-0 lead to get away at Miami in his most recent start. He'll make up for that here and opponents are hitting only .231 against him at home this season (and also only hit .232 against him last season at home). The Pirates Mitch Keller is a rookie and off the best start of his young career. However, that was at home and Keller has been hit at a .400 clip in road games this season while compiling a 9.75 ERA in those 3 starts. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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08-27-19 | Twins -116 v. White Sox | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #915 Tuesday 10* Top Play Minnesota Twins Money Line (-) @ Chicago White Sox @ 8:10 ET - Chicago's Lucas Giolito has had an amazing season but Minnesota, as well as starting pitcher Michael Pineda, are clearly being undervalued in this spot. The ability to grab the superior team as well as a solid starting pitcher in a revenge situation for a very small money line price is something I won't pass up on. The Twins got shut down in a loss to Giolito and the White Sox on Wednesday. Also, Pineda was not happy about allowing 4 earned runs to Chicago on Tuesday although the Twins did get the win in that one and Pineda is now 3-0 with a 3.15 ERA in his 3 starts against the White Sox this season. As for Giolito, he dominated the Twins in a shutout win at Minnesota Wednesday. However, his prior start against the Twins was in Chicago (just like tonight's match-up) and he allowed 7 earned runs in 5 innings. Giolito was rocked for 4 homers in that start and Minnesota is ready for revenge after getting dominated by Giolito last week. Gioltio went the distance in that shutout and that is noteworthy as the last two times he has pitched more than 6 innings in a start he has been rocked in his next start. Those two tough outings in this same situation saw him allow 10 earned runs in 11 innings of work. More of the same expected here. The Twins are 17-4 this season on the road with a money line of -100 to -150. The White Sox are 1-12 this season after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games. 10* MINNESOTA |
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08-27-19 | Indians v. Tigers OVER 9.5 | Top | 10-1 | Win | 103 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #913 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Indians @ 7:10 ET - The Indians Adam Plutko has great numbers at home this season but the road has been a different story. In his 7 appearances (6 starts) away from home this season, Plutko has a 4.93 ERA and opponents are hitting .296 against him. The Tigers Spencer Turnbull is 0-7 in his dozen home starts this season and he also is fading as the season goes on. In his 6 starts since the All Star break, Turnbull is 0-4 with a 6.58 ERA. The over is 3-0 in Plutko's 3 career starts against the Tigers and the Indians have provided him with plenty of run support (average of 11 runs per game) in those 3 outings. Detroit's bullpen has a 5.02 ERA to rank among the worst in the majors and they could be called upon early in this one. Not only is Turnbull struggling, the Tigers are also concerned about his total innings on the year compared to what he has amassed in past seasons. That said, look for runs early often and throughout this one! Detroit is 25-12 to the over (including 11-3 this season) when they enter a game after 7 or more consecutive road games. The Tigers are in that situation here as they enter this series off a long road trip. Detroit was off yesterday and now the Tigers over moves to 5-0 in their last 5 games as their match-up with Cleveland should be a slug-fest on Tuesday. 10* OVER the total in Detroit |
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08-26-19 | A's v. Royals OVER 9 | Top | 19-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #963 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Kansas City Royals vs Oakland A's @ 8:15 ET - After opening up at a 10, this total has fallen to a 9 as of very early Monday morning. In typical contrarian fashion I am fading the line move and going with the over in this match-up. Homer Bailey is going against his former team as he was with the Royals earlier this season. Sure he'll be highly motivated here as a result but don't be surprised if he struggles. Bailey has never been known as a pitcher that excels in pressure situations and he'll be putting extra pressure on himself to try and perform well here since he is facing his former team. Bailey's most recent road start but was a beauty but those are rare gems indeed. In fact, Bailey's 3 prior road starts saw him allow 21 earned runs in just 11 and 2/3 innings. Brad Keller gets the start for the Royals here. The KC right-hander is off a strong start (albeit against the miserable Orioles) but did compile a 6.00 ERA over his two preceding starts. Also, Keller is facing an A's team that has scored an average of 5.4 runs per game in its past 10 games. The Royals had not been hitting well of late but, after exploding for 9 runs in a big upset win at Cleveland yesterday, KC brings some momentum into this home series with the A's. Kansas City is looking to continue to play the role of spoiler as they face another team, just like the Indians, that is in the battle for a wild card spot in the playoff race. The over is 20-12 this season when the A's are a favorite of -150 or more. The Royals, at home when the total is 10 to 10.5, are 13-3 to the over this season. Again, 10 was the opening number on this total but, of course, I like this spot even more now that the total has dropped to a 9. Lets not forget the Royals bullpen is also a weakness. There are some storms expected in the KC area late this afternoon and early this evening but those should push through prior to game time for this one. 10* OVER the total in Kansas City |
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08-26-19 | Pirates v. Phillies -127 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #954 Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 7:05 ET - The Phillies are being undervalued here as home field certainly carries some importance in this match-up. Jason Vargas has made 3 home starts since coming to Philadelphia and he has allowed just 2 earned runs in each of those 3 home starts. Also, despite the disappointment of the weekend series at Miami, the Phillies are certainly not out of the post-season race. Conversely, the Pirates are a team that is 20 games below .500 on the season and dead last in the National League Central. When you look at this match-up from that standpoint, a lot of line value is being offered to the Phillies as a rather short home favorite here. Pittsburgh is coming off a successful series at home against the Reds this past weekend but the Pirates are a horrible 4-16 in their past 20 road games! Philadelphia is back home where they did lose their past two games but that was preceded by an 8-3 run at home in their prior 11 games at Citizens Bank Park. Look for Vargas to come up big with another solid home start while he gets plenty of run support as his Phillies teammates get to Joe Musgrove early and often. The Pirates right-hander is 0-3 with a 7.71 ERA in the month of August. Pittsburgh is 7-20 this season in games on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 runs. The Phillies are 35-21 this season as a home favorite of -110 or higher. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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08-25-19 | Red Sox v. Padres OVER 9 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #927 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Diego Padres vs Boston Red Sox @ 4:10 ET - The Red Sox possess a very potent lineup. Though they haven't seen Joey Lucchesi they are fully capable of enjoying success against him right out of the gate. Boston, off a 5-4 win yesterday, has averaged 6.7 runs per game their past 13 games. The Padres have struggled to score runs so far in this series but did manage 4 in yesterday's loss. However, San Diego did enter this series having averaged 6 runs per game in their past 11 games. Look for the Padres to resume that type of success in this game as they take advantage of facing Boston's Brian Johnson. The Red Sox southpaw has a 6.58 ERA this season in his 11 appearances (6 starts) and Johnson has been absolutely rocked as opponents are hitting .353 against him on the year. This will open up the floodgates early for the Padres lineup but look for the Red Sox lineup to match them run for run and turn this one into a surprising high-scoring game at Petco Park. The over is 10-1-1 in the Padres last dozen home games. The over is 13-6 this season when Boston enters a game having won 6 or 7 of their past 8 games. 10* OVER the total in San Diego |
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08-25-19 | Phillies -1.5 v. Marlins | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -119 | 5 h 27 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #901 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 runs (-120) @ Miami Marlins @ 1:10 ET - The Phillies have one of the worst managers in MLB. That was on full display Friday when Gabe Kabler completely mismanaged the game and the Phillies blew a 7-0 lead against the worst hitting team in baseball. The good news here for Phillies fans is that Philadelphia is still playing the Marlins and, with Aaron Nola on the mound, it becomes much more difficult for Kapler to give away games. Nola should do his thing here (pitch deep into the game and dominate) and, at the same time, the Phillies should give him plenty of run support as a result of facing Elieser Hernandez. The Marlins right-hander has a 6.46 ERA in his last 3 appearances and he has given up 4 or more earned runs in 3 of those outings. Philly will be facing Hernandez for the 3rd time in the past 2 months which also is an edge to the hitters. As for Nola, he has a 2.48 ERA in the past two months and has gone 6-1 in those 10 starts. The Phillies are 17-6 in his last 23 starts including 8-2 in his last 10 road starts. Of course this is why Philly is about a 2 to 1 favorite on the money line but I love the value with Philadelphia in the -120 price range on the run line. 12 of the Phillies last 14 wins have come by a margin of 2 or more runs. 18 of the Marlins last 23 losses have come by a margin of 2 or more runs. Lay it! 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 runs |
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08-25-19 | Montreal v. Toronto OVER 54 | Top | 28-22 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 37 m | Show |
Total of the Year - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #687 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Argonauts vs Montreal Alouettes @ Noon ET - The Argonauts are having a miserable season but are at home where they have averaged 27 points per game their past two games. While Toronto is starting to turn the corner (finally) in terms of offensive production at home, the Argos defense is a major weakness. Toronto has allowed 35.3 points per game this season and they now host a red hot Alouettes offensive unit. Montreal has scored an average of 38 points per game in its past two road games and this is a team that has plenty of momentum. After an impressive OT win at Calgary last week, the Als have now won 4 of their past 6 games and Vernon Adams, Jr. continues to pile up yardage through the air for the Alouettes. Look for the over to improve to 4-1 in Montreal's last 5 Sunday games. The over is 10-5 the last 15 times the Argonauts have been a home dog. McLeod Bethel-Thompson, Argos QB, has thrown for 543 yards with 5 TDs and 0 INTs his past two games. Both teams getting solid QB of late and this one turns into a shootout. That is why the game total opened up at a 55.5 and now that the markets have pushed it lower (54) it is "go time" with this totals selection as I don't foresee many defensive stops in this one! 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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08-24-19 | Florida -7 v. Miami-FL | Top | 24-20 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #291 Saturday 10* Top Play Florida Gators (-) vs Miami Hurricanes @ 7 ET @ Camping World Stadium in Orlando, FL - This line opened up at an 8.5 and has dropped to a 7. In typical contrarian fashion I am fading the line move and laying the points here. Florida was 10-3 last season and that was head coach Dan Mullen's first season with the team. I am projecting the Gators to be even stronger now that it will be Mullen's second season at the helm. Mullen has been a head coach since 2009. As for the Hurricanes Manny Diaz, he has never been a head coach at any level of football. Yes, he had been the defensive coordinator for the Hurricanes under Mark Richt but being a head coach is still a much different task. While the Gators have experience at the QB position, the Hurricanes are starting a redshirt freshman. Jarren Williams is likely to struggle here against a talented Florida defense. Yes the Hurricanes defense also certainly commands respect but I like the talent level of the Gators (including on offense) and expect them to have some success putting points on the board. I give Mullen the coaching edge, the Gators the overall experience edge, and I like the fact that the Hurricanes are 7-9 since they were 10-0 and ranked 2nd in the nation back in 2017. It has been all downhill since then for the Canes and the Gators are off a 10-win season they are fully prepared to build on as well. The Hurricanes are on a 9-16 ATS slide the past two seasons. The Gators are 6-2 ATS in non-conference games the past two seasons. Look for the SEC to flex its muscles again in this battle with an ACC foe that is likely to endure some growing pains early this season as they adjust to Diaz at the helm plus an inexperienced quarterback. 10* FLORIDA |
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08-24-19 | Ottawa v. Saskatchewan -9.5 | Top | 18-40 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #684 Saturday 10* Top Play Saskatchewan Roughriders (-) vs Ottawa Redblacks @ 7 ET - Saskatchewan is off a bye week. Ottawa is off another disappointing loss last week as their offense continues to flounder. The Roughriders also are playing this game with revenge since a Week Two loss to the Redblacks. Ever since that game in Ottawa, this is a case of two teams going in opposite directions. The Redblacks have lost 6 of their past 7 games and have been held to an average of just 11.5 points in those 6 losses! The Riders, on the other hand, have won 5 of their past 6 games and they have averaged 31.2 points in those 5 wins. Saskatchewan enters this game fresh off a bye and they are known for being very tough at home where they have arguably the best home field advantage in the CFL with a strong fan base. The Riders have won 4 straight games and will make it 5 in a row here. Considering the big difference in the way the offensive units have been performing for these two teams, as well as the revenge angle and the home field edge, it is plain to see why I am willing to lay the big points here. The line opened up at 10.5 with good reason but has fallen to a 9.5 and I look for the Riders to win this game by at least a pair of touchdowns. The Roughriders are also 2nd in the league for total offense and total defense while the Redblacks rank near the bottom in both of those categories. Also, if you look at those stats from Week 3 onward, the difference in these teams is even more pronounced. In terms of trending, Ottawa is 2-4 ATS when off a loss against a divisional foe. The Riders are 4-2 ATS when coming off a bye week and are also on a 6-2 ATS run in August games. More of the same expected here. 10* SASKATCHEWAN |
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08-24-19 | Yankees v. Dodgers OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #975 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Yankees @ 4:05 ET - The Yankees CC Sabathia is 1-5 with a 6.95 ERA in his 9 road starts this season. After getting destroyed 10-2 yesterday, the Dodgers will be ready to respond today and they'll take it out on Sabathia this afternoon. The issue for LA however will be their starter Tony Gonsolin. The rookie right-hander barely survived his 4-inning outing versus the Braves as he lasted only 4 innings and gave up 5 hits to the Braves but managed to get around the traffic. The Yankees have averaged 6 runs per game in their past dozen games. The Dodgers had won 13 of their past 17 games prior to yesterday's ugly loss. In those 17 games Los Angeles has averaged scoring 6.4 runs per game. The over is 6-2 this season when the Dodgers enter a game after scoring 4 runs or less 3 straight games. Also, the over is 6-3 in LA games versus AL East opponents this season. The over is 17-8 in Yankees games when they are an underdog. Also, the over is 13-6 this season when New York enters a game after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games. A lot of potency in both of these lineups and I feel neither starting pitcher can be trusted. 10* OVER the total Los Angeles Dodgers |
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08-24-19 | Cardinals +6 v. Vikings | Top | 9-20 | Loss | -104 | 4 h 28 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFLX Rotation #267 Saturday 10* Top Play Arizona Cardinals (+) @ Minnesota Vikings @ 1 ET - The betting markets are enamored with the Vikings here as this line got driven up from a 4.5 to a 7 before settling in at a 6. Yes the Vikes have a great preseason history under head coach Mike Zimmer but lets not forget they went only 3-5 ATS the past two preseasons. Also, they were 0-2 ATS in home preseason games in BOTH 2017 and 2018. That said, after a big win and cover last week at home, I do not expect a repeat this week. The Cardinals have a first year head coach in Kliff Klingsbury and new head coaches tend to be a good "play on" team in preseason action. I am not saying the Cards win this game but I expect them to stay inside the inflated number and, certainly an outright upset would not be a surprise. Arizona went 3-2 SU in preseason games played away from the home the past two seasons and one of those losses came by just 2 points. I look for them to hang in this game for the full sixty as well! In their last 4 true road games, Arizona is 3-1 SU and ATS and the only SU/ATS loss was a meaningless week 4 game in 2017. Week 3 always carries more meaning and the Cardinals have covered this game each of the past two seasons while the Vikings have not. Minnesota drops to 1-5 ATS the last 6 times they have been a home favorite. Give me the big points with the underdog Cardinals. 10* ARIZONA |
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08-23-19 | Winnipeg +6.5 v. Edmonton | Top | 34-28 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #681 Friday 10* Top Play Winnipeg Blue Bombers (+) @ Edmonton Eskimos @ 9 ET - Big line move toward Edmonton here. That is because everyone is aware that Winnipeg QB Matt Nichols left last week's game in the 4th quarter with an injury. However, what is being under-estimated by the betting markets here is that Blue Bombers back-up QB Chris Streveler got plenty of experience filling in for Nichols last season plus he has seen action this season as well. He is not a "normal" back-up in the sense that he gets used at times throughout games. That said, this is a huge game where a pair of teams are battling it out for West Division supremacy. Yes the Eskimos have revenge but they are being overvalued here. The Blue Bombers have covered 5 of the last 7 meetings between these teams. Also, Winnipeg is 8-4 SU and ATS when, in the 2nd half of a season, they are playing against a team with a winning record. The Eskimos are 6-15 ATS (including 1-3 ATS this season) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Prior to last week's cover against a bad Argonauts team, Edmonton was on a 3-7 ATS run in August games. That poor trending resumes here! The Blue Bombers are 4-0 SU in divisional games this season while the Eskimos are only 2-2 SU in divisional games. 10* WINNIPEG |
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08-23-19 | Bills -2 v. Lions | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
CBS Smash Pass - Rickenbach NFLX Rotation #265 Friday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills (-) @ Detroit Lions @ 8 ET - In regular season NFL over the past two decades I have enjoyed plenty of success fading line moves. Knowing when and why to go contrarian to the market moves is a key to beating regular season NFL games. However, preseason NFL is an entirely different animal and the line moves, especially in 2019, have proven to go the right way more often than not. That said, despite a move here (which of course is generally sharp and not square money when it comes to preseason), I still see great value with the Bills laying as little as a -2 in this match-up. When you see a 2-0 preseason team getting the action over an 0-2 team in preseason you know it is sharp money as, generally speaking, backing the winless teams in Week 3 of preseason over undefeated teams is a smart play. The key to this match-up is the Lions defense has been atrocious in this pre-season. The Bills defense has been much better. Also, the Lions are now 1-5 in preseason games under head coach Matt Patricia. The Bills are a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS in their last 3 preseason road games. Buffalo's QB rotation has been performing much better than Detroit's counterparts. Also, history is not on the side of the Lions here either as they are actually 4-10 ATS in preseason action when they enter a game off two or more consecutive preseason losses. Look for the Bills to improve to 5-1 ATS in preseason games under head coach Sean McDermott the past 3 years combined. 10* BUFFALO |
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08-23-19 | Phillies -1.5 v. Marlins | Top | 11-19 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
RL Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #905 Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 runs @ Miami @ 7:10 ET - The Phillies have plenty of momentum after their sweep of their short two-game set in Boston earlier this week. Philadelphia has now won 6 of their past 8 games and they were off yesterday and hold a big edge over the Marlins on Friday. While Philly is still very much alive in the Wild Card race, the Marlins have lost 9 of their past 10 games (and 14 of their last 18) after losing again at Atlanta last night. Miami enters this game with no rest and struggling while the Phillies come in rested and confident. The Phils also rare a big pitching edge in this match-up. Of course all of the above is the reason why the Phillies are favored in the -180 range on the money line in this one. That said, the value here is with the run line where Philadelphia is available at a pick'em price if you lay the -1.5 runs. That is the way to go as the Marlins Hector Noesi keeps giving up too many homers and is 0-3 with a 9.39 ERA. As for the Phillies Vince Velasquez, he struggled at Miami in late June but that was just his 2nd poor start against the Marlins in his last 8 outings. Velasquez generally has fared very well against Miami and he enters this outing on an overall run that has seen him allow 3 earned runs or less in 5 straight starts! Also, the Phillies bullpen is well-rested after off days Monday and Thursday and they performed very well in the Red Sox series. The Marlins bullpen has a 5.13 ERA which ranks them as one of the worst in the majors. 10* PHILADELPHIA Run Line -1.5 runs |