Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-22-18 | Diamondbacks v. Brewers OVER 9 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Game #909 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 7:40 ET - This is a classic contrarian pick for me but of course my big play on this match-up certainly doesn't come without good reason. The fact is that the Diamondbacks have been struggling badly at the plate and the Brewers really haven't fared much better of late. That said, why did the odds makers hang a 9 on this O/U involving a pair of struggling lineups? Precisely! This is one of those situations where it is important to dig a little deeper and there are a number of key factors supporting the over in this one. Matt Koch gets the start for the Diamondbacks and he got absolutely crushed by the Brewers when he faced them Wednesday. Not only that, he has now struck out just 6 in his last 18 and 2/3 innings on the mound. Over this same amount of time he has allowed 7 homers. When a starter is striking out less hitters than home runs allowed over a 3-start period there is definitely cause for concern. As for Milwaukee's Jhoulys Chacin, he is off of a strong start at Arizona Wednesday but, previously, he allowed 11 earned runs in 11 innings in his last 2 starts versus the Diamondbacks. Both of those were just last season so it is not as if this is "ancient history" either. The over is 9-3 this season in Arizona's road games when their money line range is between -125 and +125. The Brewers have scored 4 or more runs in 8 of their last 11 games. 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee |
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05-21-18 | Celtics v. Cavs OVER 206.5 | Top | 102-111 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #705 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Cavaliers vs Boston Celtics @ 8:35 ET - Celtics games have now recorded 3 straight unders. The over is 5-1 this season when Boston enters a game on an "under streak" of 3 or more games. Celtics coach Brad Stevens, one of the best in the business, is making some adjustments here and I expect it to result in a lot more offense. Boston scored just 86 points and got blasted in Game 3 as they lost by a margin of 30 points. The over is 8-3 this season when the Celtics are off of a game they lost by a double digit margin. The over is a long-term 17-11 when the Cavaliers enter a game on an "under streak" of 3 or more games. The total on this game is currently 206.5 as of early morning on game day. The last 13 times that Cleveland has been off of a win by a double digit margin, their next game has totaled 207 points or more 11 of 13 times! In other words, look for the Cavs offense to stay red hot here (particularly since they are at home but also look for Stevens to make some adjustments to get his teams offensive production right back up where it should be. Keep in mind the Cavaliers had allowed an average of 107 points per game before Saturday's blowout win and, on the season, the Cavs allowed 109 points per game. 10* OVER the total in Cleveland |
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05-21-18 | Lightning +115 v. Capitals | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
East Beast - Rickenbach NHL Game #9 Monday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Lightning Money Line (+) @ Washington Capitals @ 8:05 ET - Bolts goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy is playing extremely well now after struggling in the series. Certainly he has helped lead the way to 3 straight Tampa Bay wins and I expect his success to continue tonight. Prior to Tampa's Game 5 home win (much more dominant than the final score indicates by the way), the road team in Capitals games was on a 12-4 run! That said, even with Saturday's result included, there has been a strong trend toward no home ice edge in Washington's post-season games. Of course odds makers still give shading to the home team as long-term history supports that. However, that is where value comes into play and we have it again here as the Bolts are the better team, getting better goaltending, and playing with a ton of confidence right now. The Capitals are enduring another one of their famed post-season collapses in a series and that sets this one up well for a road rout. The Lightning are 10-4 (including 5-1 this season) when leading in a playoff series. Dating back to March 30th, the Capitals have lost 7 of their last 11 home games. Also, in their last 8 games the Capitals have scored only 5 power play goals but have allowed 10. The Bolts surge continues and the Caps season ends tonight. 10* TAMPA BAY |
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05-21-18 | Padres v. Nationals OVER 7.5 | Top | 2-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Game #951 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs San Diego Padres @ 7:05 ET - This total was as high as an 8.5 and it briefly dropped as low as a 7 in some spots this morning before settling in at a 7.5 across the board. Another contrarian play for me but, of course, it is certainly not without merit. Of course the Padres are known as a poor hitting team but they actually have a .412 slugging percentage which ranks them 6th in the National League this season. Also, San Diego has some extra confidence at the plate since they have won 3 straight games and 6 of their last 8. In fact, the Padres have averaged scoring 5 runs per game their last 7 games. Another edge is that they just saw the Nationals Gio Gonzalez less than two weeks ago. The Nats southpaw enjoyed success that day but he followed that up by struggling in his start last week. He allowed 6 hits and 4 walks for a 2.00 WHIP in his 5-inning stint in a game that got suspended. Look for the Padres to enjoy some success at the plate against Gonzalez plus they'll take advantage of a Nationals bullpen that ranks as one of the worst in the majors with a 4.72 ERA. Of course San Diego is going to need all the runs they can get here because Washington is angry off of a 3-game sweep at the hands of the Dodgers and they are going to crush Robbie Erlin. The Padres southpaw is making a spot start here. His only other start this season saw him get crushed by the Dodgers. Also, in his only two starts at Washington in his career he has been absolutely hammered both times! Take advantage of the low total here. Look for the over to improve to 8-4 this season when the Nationals are a home fave in a range of -175 to -250. Also, the Padres are 7-0 to the over in Monday games this season! 10* OVER the total in Washington |
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05-20-18 | Rockets v. Warriors OVER 226 | Top | 85-126 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 12 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #503 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets @ 8:05 ET - You know the Warriors will be out for blood here after a 22 point loss in Game 2 on Wednesday. However, look for Golden State to respond with offense, not defense. The fact is that the Warriors over should go to 6-3 the last 9 times they've played a game with 3 or more days of rest between games. Fresh legs for Golden State coupled with being on their home floor coupled with being off of a blowout loss all equates to a run and gun affair here. You know the Rockets will play with plenty of confidence after knocking off the Warriors by 22 points at home. That is going to lead to a shootout here. Houston has averaged 113 points per game in their last 9 games. The Warriors have averaged 119 points per game in their last 3 home games. Golden State's most recent home game stayed under the total but the Warriors entered that game with a record of 7-1 to the over in their 8 prior home games. The Rockets are 7-3 to the over in their past 10 games. Game 3 went over the total despite the Warriors shooting only 30% from three point land and you know another performance like that is highly unlikely. That said, this one should easily crush the posted O/U Sunday. 10* OVER the total in Golden State |
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05-20-18 | Golden Knights v. Jets -133 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -133 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NHL Game #8 Sunday 10* Top Play Winnipeg Jets Money Line (-) vs Vegas Golden Knights @ 3:05 ET - The very first money line that came out on this game was in the wee hours of the morning Saturday soon after Vegas had won Game 4 on Friday night. The opener was a 170 and this line is now down to as low as a 133 as of the wee hours of the morning on game day. This is offering insane value to the home team. Yes the Golden Knights have won 3 straight in this series but the Jets are known for responding on home ice. That said, while credit is certainly due to Vegas and particularly goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury for his fantastic goaltending performance of late, the fact remains that Winnipeg has made mistakes that have led to easy goals for the Knights. I don't see those same mistakes continuing and that is particularly true on home ice where Winnipeg has been so dominant all season. In fact, when the Jets are playing on home ice following a loss, they have won 14 of 15 games this season. I just don't see them being eliminated north of the border. The Golden Knights are going to get the Jets "best" in this game and that means a result similar to the Game 1 blowout here in Winnipeg. The big drop on the price from the opener has allowed me to raise this play to my highest level. Tremendous value here. 10* WINNIPEG |
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05-20-18 | A's v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 | Top | 9-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #917 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs Oakland A's @ 1:05 ET - The A's Daniel Mengden has some solid overall numbers on the season but note that the road has given him some trouble. Away from Oakland this season, he has compiled a 5.40 ERA with an ugly 1.65 WHIP. Speaking of ugly, the Blue Jays Joe Biagini is winless in his 3 starts this season and has compiled a 7.98 ERA and a 1.84 WHIP. He's facing an A's team that has won 5 of their last 6 games plus has averaged 5.7 runs per game their last 9 games. The Blue Jays have averaged 5.5 runs per game their last 4 games. The over was 5-3 in Oakland's last 8 games and 3-1 in Toronto's last 4 games prior to yesterday's push. The A's are 13-6 to the over including 7-3 to the over in road games, when their game has a posted O/U of 9 or 9.5 runs this season. The A's are averaging 5 runs per game on the road this season and the Blue Jays are averaging 5.3 runs per game versus right-handed starters on the year. Add it all up and this one gets to double digits early Sunday. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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05-19-18 | Rays +1.5 v. Angels | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
Run Line Rout - Rickenbach MLB Game #975 Saturday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays Run Line +1.5 runs (-130) @ Los Angeles Angels @ 9:05 ET - We have to lay a little bit of juice to have the run line here but that could prove key should the Rays fall just short here and lose by a run. The fact is that Tampa Bay (5 in a row) has the longest winning streak in the majors right now while Los Angeles (4 in a row) has the longest losing streak in MLB currently. The Rays are hitting and the Angels are not. TB has averaged 6.5 runs and 12 hits per game their last 4 games. LA has averaged just 2.3 runs per game their last 8 games. The Angels are just 2-6 during this stretch and both wins came by a single run. That said, this is a great spot to have the +1.5 as playing against LA with a +1.5 would have delivered 8 straight wins at the sports books! The Angels are averaging just 5.7 hits per game their last 7 games. While it is true that Andrew Heaney has been pitching well for Los Angeles, the Rays are a very confident team right now at the plate and loaded with right-handed lumber. Though Sergio Romo has been a reliever throughout his career, the Tampa Bay right-hander will not be asked to pitch deep into this game. He'll quickly be relieved by rookie southpaw Ryan Yarbrough and he has pitched very well this season. Also, the Angels are ranked 12th out of 15 teams in the AL in terms of batting average versus lefties and Yarbrough is likely to get the majority of the innings today. As for the Rays facing lefty Heaney, Tampa Bay ranks 5th out of all 30 teams in MLB in terms of batting average versus southpaws. Ride the hot team and currently the better hitting team as well. One more key stat here. The Angels are 2-9 SU their last 11 home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. Both wins came by a single run. That means if you just took the +1.5 runs against the Angels in each of their last 11 home games with an O/U posted at 8 or 8.5 runs, you are a PERFECT 11-0! I like the sounds of that! 10* Tampa Bay Rays Run line +1.5 runs |
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05-19-18 | Celtics +6.5 v. Cavs | Top | 86-116 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #703 Saturday 10* Top Play Boston Celtics (+) @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 8:35 ET - Tremendous value here as everyone expects the Cavaliers to bounce back since they are at home and they have dug an 0-2 hole in this series. There are many problems with that theory however. First off, this is LeBron James weakest supporting cast in his tenure with the Cavs. Secondly, the Cavaliers best shot for a blowout home win would be to get hot from the outside and start draining shot after shot. The long layoff in this series won't help in that regard. These teams haven't played since Tuesday and Boston is 5-1 SU and ATS this season when playing with 3 or more days of rest this season while Cleveland is 0-4 SU and ATS with those same parameters this season! The issue for the Cavs is that generally when they are shooting cold (and certainly the Celtics are tough defensively) they stay cold. The Cavaliers this season are an ugly 1-6 ATS when they enter a game having been held under 100 points in each of their 2 prior games. In other words, don't look for the Cavs to start suddenly draining all kinds of shots in this game. In fact, with their loss in Game 2 (scored 94) after scoring just 83 in Game 1, Cleveland is now 4-17 ATS this season when off of a game where they were held under 100 points! Should the Cavs find a way to get a home win and crawl back into this series don't be surprised if it is a non-covering win. Cleveland is only 8-6 SU in their last 14 games and 6 of those 8 wins have come by a margin of 4 points or less! Look for the Cavaliers to drop to 0-5 ATS on the season when they are playing with 3 or more days of rest. 10* BOSTON |
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05-19-18 | Rockies v. Giants OVER 7.5 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 101 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #953 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies @ 4:05 ET - The Giants have, overall, struggled at the plate this season. But they entered this series having averaged 11.5 hits per game in their 6 prior games. Look for them to get back on track against Jon Gray this afternoon. Yes the Rockies right-hander has been piling up strikeouts but he also gave up 6 earned runs on 10 hits in just 5 and 1/3 innings in his most recent start. Also, Gray's last 2 starts at AT & T Park have seen him allow 9 hits and 5 walks for a total of 14 baserunners in just 8 and 1/3 innings of work! The good news for Rockies fans today is that Gray should get plenty of run support! Colorado will tee off against Chris Stratton. The Giants right-hander was hit hard by the Rockies last September (8 hits in 4 innings) and he is struggling this season. Stratton has a 6.89 ERA in his last 3 starts and 2 of those were on the road. At home this season he has struggled with a 7.00 ERA in his 4 starts thus far. Only 1 of Gray's 4 road starts has resulted in an under. Also, the over is a perfect 4-0 in Stratton's last 4 starts as he has allowed 18 earned runs in 17 innings spanning those 4 outings. Even though AT & T Park is a pitcher-friendly park, afternoon games here do tend to feature more runs and the total on this one has dropped from an opener of an 8 to a 7.5 so even more value is available now. The over is 6-2 in Giants Saturday games and look for the over to go to 8-4 this season in their home games with a money line range of -125 to +125. Big value here raises this one to top rating. 10* OVER the total in San Francisco |
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05-18-18 | Jets +107 v. Golden Knights | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NHL Game #61 Friday 10* Top Play Winnipeg Jets Money Line (+) @ Vegas Golden Knights @ 8:05 ET - The Jets are 8-2 this season when they enter a game on a losing streak of 2 or more games. Winnipeg is going to carry momentum to Game 4 from their huge effort in the 3rd period of Game 3 on Wednesday. In that game the Golden Knights scored early on a bit of a "fluke" play that led to a turnover. Then Vegas was buoyed by some incredible saves by Marc-Andre Fleury as well as some help from the pipe making saves and there have been quite a few that have rung off the post or cross-bar in this series. The Jets have won 12 of 16 Friday games. They have won 32 of 46 when playing with revenge and also Winnipeg has won 13 of 19 when coming off of a loss by a margin of 2 goals or more. Even with the win on Wednesday, Vegas is just 2-4 the last 6 times they've been off of a victory by a margin of 2 or more goals. The Jets are known as a high-scoring team and, prior to these past two games, Golden Knights goalie Fleury had allowed 3 or more goals in 5 of his last 6 games. The Jets are an incredible 10-1 this season when they enter a game having been held to 2 goals or less in 2 or more consecutive games. 10* WINNIPEG |
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05-18-18 | A's v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Game #915 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs Oakland A's @ 7:05 ET - The odds makers opened this one up at a 10 and it has dropped to a 9.5 as of early game day morning. I'll gladly take advantage of the additional value here. The A's are red hot at the plate right now and the Blue Jays Marco Estrada continues to be plagued by giving up too many homers. As for Oakland starter Brett Anderson, he wrapped up 2017 as a member of the Blue Jays and will likely be guilty of trying to over-throw here as he hopes for revenge versus Toronto. This won't end well for Anderson and he enters this start having allowed 13 runs (11 earned) on 18 hits and 5 walks in the 8 innings spanning his last two starts. The over is 5-2 in Oakland's last 7 games as the A's have averaged scoring 6.1 runs per game during this hot streak. The Blue Jays haven't been knocking the cover off of the ball but, since getting no-hit by James Paxton of the Mariners, Toronto has averaged about 5 runs and 9 hits per game their last 8 games. They're very likely to enjoy success against a struggling Anderson. Look for the over to improve to 4-0 in Toronto's last 4 games. Each team has played 7 Friday games this season and only 2 of the Jays games stayed under and only 1 of Oakland's games stayed under the total. Plenty of Friday night "fireworks" in this one. Estrada winless with a 6.75 ERA and 3 homers allowed in his 3 career starts versus Oakland. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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05-17-18 | Lightning +103 v. Capitals | Top | 4-2 | Win | 103 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NHL Game #59 Thursday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Lightning Money Line (+) @ Washington Capitals @ 8:05 ET - The road ice edge belongs to Tampa Bay in this one. All kidding aside, road teams continue to dominate in Washington's post-season games. The road team has won 11 of the Capitals 15 playoff games. As for the Lightning, they lost their first road game of the post-season but they certainly haven't looked back nor dwelled on it. The Bolts have since won 4 straight playoff games away from home! Long-term, Tampa Bay is 24-11 when trailing in a playoff series and the way they played in Game 3 has the Capitals feeling like "oh no...here we go again" as they've been known for playoff collapses in recent seasons. It is because of this key factor that all the pressure is on the Caps here. Washington knows they can ill afford to go back down to Tampa Bay with this series now tied. This is a lot of pressure to deal with and the Capitals are likely to be squeezing the sticks a little tight in this one! Conversely, the Lightning are feeling rejuvenated and alive with energy and confidence after getting back into the series with a resounding Game 3 win. The Bolts are 34-15 this season when off of a game where they scored at least 4 goals. Look for TB to stay hot here. Dating all the way back to December 1st there have been only two occurrences where the Lightning won only 1 game. In other words, they've been consistently building streaks over the past 5 and 1/2 months. When they win a game it is usually the beginning of at least a 2-game streak and I expect that to prove to be the case again here. 10* TAMPA BAY |
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05-17-18 | Rangers -106 v. White Sox | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -106 | 4 h 31 m | Show |
NOTE: 10* Top Play rating remains although Doug Fister now getting the start for Rangers. Fister has allowed just 3 earned runs on only 10 hits in the 13 innings spanning his last two road starts. Overall, on the season he has a 2.70 ERA away from home. Fister has had one truly ugly start this season out of 7 overall starts. In the other 6 starts he has a 3.16 ERA and note that he is facing a White Sox team that is hitting .232 in May. Only 2 American League teams are hitting worse! ORIGINAL write-up: Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #963 Thursday 10* Top Play Texas Rangers Money Line (-) @ Chicago White Sox @ 8:10 ET - The White Sox are 3-15 at home this season. Truly dreadful season so far for the ChiSox! However, we're getting line value here because the Rangers certainly haven't been overly impressive this season either AND because James Shields has pitched well in a few of his starts for Chicago early this year. This has led to the better team (Texas) with the better pitcher (Cole Hamels) laying only about a -120 price in this one. I'll gladly take it. Hamels is 2-1 with a 2.54 ERA on the road this season. In his last 3 starts, the Rangers southpaw has compiled a 1.69 ERA. Hamels is also 2-0 with a 2.86 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in his 4 career starts versus the White Sox. As for Shields, he has a 5.06 ERA in his last two starts versus the Rangers and he gave up 3 homers to Texas in less than 11 innings spanning those two starts. Shields is winless with a 5.52 ERA in his 5 home starts this season. Also, he has nearly as many walks as strikeouts in his home starts this season. To put that in proper perspective not that Hamels has MORE than THREE times as many strikeouts as walks on the road this season. The White Sox enter this game having lost 9 of their last 10 while the Rangers have a lot of positive energy after getting 5 runs late in yesterday afternoon's game at Seattle to get a big road win over the Mariners. Look for the Rangers to improve to 10-5 the last 15 times they've been a road favorite in a range of -125 to -175. The White Sox drop to 2-8 this season versus left-handed starters. 10* TEXAS RANGERS |
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05-17-18 | Padres v. Pirates OVER 8 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
Top Play Special - Rickenbach MLB Game #953 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres @ 7:05 ET - I know the Padres are certainly one of the weaker hitting teams in the league. However, so do the odds makers and they opened this game up with a total of 8.5 runs and the markets have forced a drop to 8 runs. Grab the additional value here because the Pirates Chad Kuhl has allowed 6 homers in his last 3 starts! Also, in his two career starts versus San Diego, the Pittsburgh right-hander has walked 9 in 11 and 1/3 innings. As for the Padres Eric Lauer, he is struggling badly. The southpaw has seen the velocity on his fastball dip and plus he is having trouble locating the pitch. Lauer gave up 4 homers versus the Cardinals in his most recent start and he didn't even complete 3 innings. Even more concerning is that the start was at home. Note that on the road this season Lauer has a 10.12 ERA! He has been very hittable of late and now he faces a Pirates team that is averaging 6.5 run per their last 8 games. The Padres, as noted above, aren't known for their offensive production but winning leads to confidence and San Diego has won 3 of their last 4 games plus has scored 4 or more runs in 4 of their last 5 games. The over is 14-6 this season when Pittsburgh is off of a win. Also, when the Pirates have faced a left-handed starter, the over has gone 6-2 this season. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh |
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05-16-18 | Jets +125 v. Golden Knights | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NHL Game #3 Wednesday 10* Top Play Winnipeg Jets Money Line (+) @ Vegas Golden Knights @ 9:05 ET - The Jets are a perfect 3-0 in this post-season when tied up in a series. Also, Winnipeg is 32-13 this season when playing with revenge. When off of a loss by a multiple goal margin this season the Jets have responded by going 13-5 in their next game. The Golden Knights are off the big 3-1 road win Monday but previously were just 18-14 in their 32 prior games. The Jets have not lost back to back games since mid-March. Since then, Winnipeg is a perfect 6-0 when off of a loss. Also, the Jets were a long-term 20-5 their last 25 games before that poor result in Game 2 on home ice. Winnipeg responds big here. Yes Vegas is a tough venue to play in but the Jets are 7-2 in their last 9 road games and the Golden Knights have lost 6 of their last 15 home games. In other words, it is not like Vegas is unbeatable on home ice and I love getting the plus money value here with the team I absolutely expect to represent the Western Conference in the Finals. The Jets had more regular season points than any other team that still remains in the playoffs and, keep in mind, they won that huge Game 7 at Nashville (the #1 seeded team) to get to this point. The Jets will be ready here. 10* WINNIPEG |
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05-16-18 | Warriors v. Rockets +100 | Top | 105-127 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #502 Wednesday 10* Top Play Houston Rockets Money Line (-) vs Golden State Warriors @ 9:05 ET - The Rockets haven't lost back to back games in 4 months! You have to go all the way back to early January to find the last time Houston was defeated in consecutive games. Yes I know this is the Warriors but you can bank on the Rockets making some solid adjustments here. While Golden State is still going to "get theirs" in this one, I certainly don't expect the Warriors to again connect on 62% of their shots inside from the 3-point arc. Look for the Rockets to improve on their perfect mark in this situation - 9-0 SU the L9 times they were off of a loss. That is another reason I am suggesting the money line here as it is offering great line value and you don't necessarily have to lay the 1 or 1.5 points (as of early game day morning). Just grab the money line and look for the Rockets to even up this series at home! Golden State, dating back to early March, is 0-4 SU and ATS the last 4 times they've entered a game on a SU winning streak of 3 or more games. 10* HOUSTON |
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05-16-18 | Dodgers v. Marlins OVER 7.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 4 h 9 m | Show |
NOTE: Pitching Change for the Marlins but still going with this play on the over. In fact the change arguably strengthens what was already a Top Play. Elieser Hernandez is now expected to start for Miami. Though the 23-year old has some decent minor league numbers on his resume, he has only made 2 starts above the Single A level in the minors in his entire career! So now he jumps all the way from AA (2 starts) past AAA (0 appearances) to make a MLB start! I don't expect this to go well as Hernandez also has been hit hard in his 2 relief appearances this season for the Marlins. Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #905 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 7:10 ET - This is certainly a contrarian play but I love spots like this. As I have said before and I'll say it again here...the odds makers are quite sharp! Of course this is common knowledge but yet so often many people do underestimate this very important key factor. That said, this game is a prime example as the very first total that came up on this game was an 8 and the markets quickly pushed it to a 7.5 and now it is a 7 in almost all shops. This is a great value as each team just has to get to 3 runs and then we can't lose this play as it can't end any less than a 4-3 final. I am well aware that the Dodgers are struggling bad and that the Marlins haven't hit well this season either. However, this is not a match-up of top tier pitchers ladies and gentlemen. Yes, Caleb Smith has pitched very well for the Marlins but he is still off of a start where he was quite fortunate as he gave up only 2 earned runs despite allowing 7 hits in just 5 and 1/3 innings of work. Earlier this season he went through a 3-start stretch where he allowed 11 earned runs in just 10 and 1/3 innings of work. Look for the Dodgers sticks to get going here as Smith's most recent start is a sign of a another mini-slump coming for him. Walker Buehler gets the start for the Marlins here and his numbers on the season look great but this will be the first time he is giving a team (Miami) a 2nd look at him and his other starts have been against the Reds, Padres, and Giants. He has not faced a powerhouse of opposition and I look for the Marlins to enjoy some success as they get a second shot at him today. Look for the over to improve to 5-2 in Wednesday games for Los Angeles this season. Also, the Marlins are 3-0 to the over the last 3 times they were off of a win. 10* OVER the total in Miami |
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05-15-18 | Cavs v. Celtics OVER 202.5 | Top | 94-107 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 34 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #701 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Celtics vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 8:35 ET - You know that LeBron James and Company are going to respond here but they have had issues on defense all season long and are one of the worst teams in the league when it comes to their defensive efficiency rating. With that said, look for this one to surprise many and be a shootout. The Cavaliers are 11-5 to the over in Tuesday games game this season. Cleveland is also 24-14 to the over when playing with revenge. After a loss by a double digit margin, the Cavs are 32-19 to the over. The Celtics are 18-10 to the over this season when off of a win by a double digit margin. That is because it is hard to keep up defensive intensity when a team is off of an easy blowout win. Also, the over is 19-10 Boston's last 29 versus teams that allow 106 points or more per game. Also, versus teams that average 106 points or more, the Celtics are on a 24-12 run to the over. Before game 1 stayed under the total, Cleveland was on a 5-1 run to the over their prior 6 games and had been shooting the ball very well. Also, prior to that Game 1 under, the Celtics had gone 10-1 to the over in their last 11 home games. After a rare OFF night for the Cavaliers in the offensive end, look for things to return to "normal" Tuesday in Game Two. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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05-15-18 | Lightning +107 v. Capitals | Top | 4-2 | Win | 107 | 21 h 39 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NHL Game #1 Tuesday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Lightning Money Line (+) @ Washington Capitals @ 8:05 ET - Though the Capitals pleaded with the league front office to allow them to play Game 3 in Tampa Bay, NHL officials demanded that the game game take place in Washington. I jest of course but the fact is that the Capitals have been great on the road in these playoffs and certainly have not played well on home ice. The road team has won 10 of the Caps 14 post-season games thus far. The Lighting, embarrassed by the way they played on home ice thus far in this series, are certainly going to come to play tonight on the road at Washington! The Bolts are 22-9 this season when off of a loss. That includes 6-2 when Tampa Bay is entering a game off of 2 or more consecutive defeats. The Lightning went 23-10 this season when playing with revenge and that includes 11-4 when it is home loss revenge. After a loss by a margin of 2 goals or more the Lightning went 14-6 this season. When off of B2B losses by 2 or more goals (RARE!) the Bolts went 3-1 this season. When the Capitals enter a game on a winning streak of 4 or more games they went 2-6 this season! The Lightning are simply too strong of a hockey team to not "circle the wagons" and get back into this series with a win. I look for that win to come tonight in Game 3 and we're getting great line value since they are on the road. 10* TAMPA BAY |
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05-15-18 | Rockies v. Padres OVER 7.5 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -104 | 16 h 38 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #951 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies @ 3:40 ET - Jordan Lyles gets the start for the Padres here. He used to pitch for the Rockies. As a result, it certainly is noteworthy that he has had struggles with facing Colorado since he game to San Diego. Last season he faced them twice in starts late in the season and he struggled in both outings including allowing 4 homers in those two games and 3 of the home runs came right here at pitcher friendly Petco Park. That is a key element today because even though this is regarded as a pitcher friendly venue the ball does carry a little better in day games here. Also, Lyles has faced the Rockies a few times out of the bullpen this season so they are very familiar with him. Though Colorado's German Marquez has good numbers on the road this season, his last two road starts were against the injury-depleted Mets and the light-hitting Marlins. He still gave up 12 hits in 12 innings versus those two struggling teams and now Marquez has allowed 15 earned runs on 32 hits in 20 innings of work in his last 4 starts overall. In other words, don't be surprised if his struggles continue today. I know that, entering Monday's action, these teams have trended under. However, this pitching match-up is not conducive to a low-scoring game. Look for both teams to enjoy plenty of success at the plate and I'll gladly take advantage of a day game with a low total as early market moves have dropped this one to only 7.5 runs. 10* OVER the total in San Diego |
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05-14-18 | Golden Knights v. Jets OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -124 | 23 h 28 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NHL Game #57 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Winnipeg Jets vs Vegas Golden Knights @ 8:05 ET - Vegas gave up a bunch of goals as I expected in Game 1 but the over ended up being a tough push as there were 4 first period goals but nothing in third period and the game ended on 6 goals. Keep in mind, the Golden Knights closed out their prior series with a shutout win over San Jose but Vegas certainly had some "puck luck" on their side in that one as the Sharks had a number of great scoring opportunities just miss finding the back of the net. Also, previous to that game the over was 4-1 in the Knights 5 prior games. The Jets entered Game 1 (total pushed) having gone 4-2 to the over in their 6 prior games. Also, the 3 regular season games between these teams this season averaged nearly 8 goals per game. The over is 14-9 this season in Vegas road games with a posted total of 6 or more goals. The over is a long-term 15-9 in Jets home games with a posted total of 6 or more goals. A lot of firepower for the Jets who led the league in scoring on home ice this season and don't discount the speed of the Golden Knights giving them plenty of open ice scoring opportunities. Vegas came out sluggish to start Game 1 after the long layoff but they'll be ready to go right away in this one after the disappointing Game 1 result. Also, Vegas will make some adjustments to make sure they're getting some more quality scoring chances Monday after getting manhandled much of the game on Saturday. The over is 10-6 this season when Vegas is off of a loss by a margin of 2 or more goals. After Game 1 died late, look for this one to see much more balanced scoring throughout from both hockey clubs. Very dangerous, very fast, very skilled teams matched up here in the Wild Wild West! 10* Top Play OVER the total in Winnipeg |
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05-14-18 | A's v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 21 h 38 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #911 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Oakland A's @ 7:10 ET - Mild temperatures in the forecast for Boston Monday evening and the wind expected to be blowing out toward left center field at Fenway Park. This should lead to plenty of runs as both of these lineups have been quite hot. Before being held to just 2 runs in yesterday's loss Oakland had scored 16 runs in the first two games of their 3-game set with the Yankees in the Bronx. As for the Red Sox, they are off of a 5-3 win at Toronto. That brings Boston to 6-3 their last 9 games and, over their last 13 games, the Red Sox have averaged 5.3 runs per game! The A's Sean Manaea was throwing very well earlier this season but he has allowed 4 earned runs in each of his last two starts. Boston's Rick Porcello is 5-0 this season but he allowed 5 earned runs in 5 and 1/3 innings in his most recent start. Oakland's Manaea allowed 7 earned runs on 11 hits in less than 4 innings of work in his most recent start at Fenway Park. As for Porcello, it is still "early" this season and looking at his last full season numbers, note that in 2017 he went 7-11 with a 5.43 ERA in home games and 8-12 with a 5.47 ERA in night games. Of course this is a night game and it is at home and he got rocked in the Bronx in his most recent start. Signs of things to come Monday in my opinion! The over is 11-5 this season in A's games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. The over is 9-5 in Red Sox home games this season. These trends continue Monday. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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05-13-18 | Capitals v. Lightning -1.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NHL Game #56 Sunday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Lightning Puck Line -1.5 goals +155 vs Washington Capitals @ 8:05 ET - The Lighting are going to respond in a huge way after the Game 1 loss. Of course I am not going to lay 2 to 1 odds with the Bolts on the money line. I don't play big priced money line faves in NHL or MLB. However, I am expecting a blowout out here and that is why I am grabbing the huge value with Tampa Bay as high as a +155 return on investment on the puck line. Of course one can't just blindly lay the -1.5 goals but there is certainly ample support here for doing just that. The last 14 times that Tampa Bay has notched a win off of a loss, 13 of the 14 victories have come by 2 goals or more! Also, 14 of the Capitals 21 road losses this season have come by 2 goals or more. This includes EACH of Washington's last 5 losses away from home. All 5 of those road defeats have come by a multiple goal margin. The fact is that I look for a huge response from Tampa Bay here as they even up the series on home ice and you can see why recent trending like the 13-1 and 5-0 above fully support that this victory should come by at least a 2-goal margin! The Bolts are a long-term 23-10 when trailing in a playoff series. TB is also 23-9 when playing with revenge this season and that includes a razor sharp 11-3 when it is home loss revenge! After losing a game by a margin of 2 goals or more, the Lightning have bounced back - 14-5 this season! More of the same here in an expected home blowout! 10* TAMPA BAY Puck Line -1.5 goals +155 |
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05-13-18 | Nationals +120 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 6-4 | Win | 120 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #963 Sunday 10* Top Play Washington Nationals Money Line (+) @ Arizona Diamondbacks @ 8:05 ET - The Nationals won again yesterday and are now 12-2 in their last 14 games. The loss for the Diamondbacks dropped Arizona to 3-7 in their last 10 games. Amazingly, in the month of May, the Dbacks have scored more than 4 runs just once. In their other 10 games they have averaged only 2 runs per game! The Nationals have averaged 4.8 runs per game this month. They should enjoy success against Arizona's Zack Godley. The right-hander has a 6.48 ERA in his last 3 starts versus the Nats and Godley has allowed 23 hits in the less than 17 innings spanning those 3 starts. As for his current form, Godley has allowed 4 or more earned runs in 3 of his last 5 starts. Also, over this span of 5 starts he has given up 32 hits plus walked 17 in 26 innings of work. As you can see that is an average of very nearly 2 base runners per inning! Look for Jeremy Hellickson to give the Nationals the big edge on the mound in this one. The Washington right-hander has a 2.95 ERA in his last 3 starts versus the Diamondbacks. Also, he has given up only 14 hits and walked just 1 in the 18 and 1/3 innings versus Arizona. As you can see from these numbers his WHIP is under 1 in those outings! As for current form, Hellickson has a 1.02 ERA and 0.62 WHIP in his last 3 starts! The Nats are 19-9 versus right-handers this season and Arizona has lost 6 of their last 8 home games. Many will back Arizona here to avoid the 4-game sweep at home but that is why there is such great value here because this is truly a mismatch and I am happy to grab the plus money with the road dog in this one! 10* WASHINGTON |
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05-13-18 | Twins v. Angels OVER 8 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 33 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #977 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins @ 4:05 ET - Yesterday Yankees pitcher Domingo German struggle in what was essentially his 3rd start after dominating a game he entered early and went 4 innings replacing Jordan Montgomery and then delivering another shutout performance in a start in his next outing. The point is the "3rd time was the charm" in terms of MLB hitters eventually getting to the rookie. I expect that to be the case now that "the book is out" on Angels rookie Fernando Romero today. This will be his 3rd start at the MLB level and he has yet to allow an earned run but he had guys on base in each of the first 5 innings of his most recent start and he also never pitched above the Double-A level of the minor leagues until this season. Also, Romero will be facing an Angels lineup loaded with some very dangerous hitters with plenty of experience. Shohei Ohtani has also found out what it is like when MLB hitters get to see a little more of a rookie hurler. After his stellar start to this season he has a 6.08 ERA and 1.88 WHIP in his last 3 starts. With the Twins extra inning win yesterday, they have now won 8 of their last 10 games, are playing with a lot of confidence, and have averaged scoring 5.3 runs per game their last dozen games. The Angels are 8-3 to the over this season as a home favorite in a range of -125 to -175. Minnesota is 13-7 to the over on the road this season including a PERFECT 5-0 to the over when they are a road dog in a range of +125 to +175 on the money line. 10* OVER the total in Los Angeles Angels |
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05-12-18 | Braves v. Marlins OVER 8 | Top | 10-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #907 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves @ 7:10 ET - First off lets talk about the bullpens here. Miami's pen has a high ERA (5.34) on the season. Atlanta's pen has a lower ERA but they've been fortunate in working out of jams because the Braves bullpen has walked more batters than any other pen in the majors. Guess who is the 2nd worst team for walks surrendered...Marlins of course! That is why both of these bullpens have a very high WHIP so far this season. That certainly could come into play in this one because both starting pitchers are likely to run into some trouble. The Braves Mike Soroka has averaged just 5 innings in his first two starts at the MLB level and he is only 20 years old and had never pitched above the AA level of the minors until this season. As for the Marlins Jarlin Garcia, the southpaw is off of a rough start at Wrigley Field. This is his first year as a starter and last year (his first in majors) working exclusively out of the bullpen he had a solid 2.45 ERA in day games but a 5.49 ERA in night games! The Braves .287 batting average versus left-handed pitching ranks #1 in the majors! As for the Marlins, they will be buoyed by yesterday's confidence-building win in which they pounded out 14 hits. 10* OVER the total in Miami |
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05-11-18 | A's v. Yankees OVER 9.5 | Top | 10-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #967 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Oakland A's @ 7:05 ET - Had to wait for the total to come out on this one since there was a delay in the A's announcing a starting pitcher. It was well worth the wait and it is now "go time" with this one. The total is a 9.5 and Oakland's Kendall Graveman has struggled badly this season plus the Yankees will be fired up off of a loss. I also like the flip side of this equation in that Sonny Gray will be facing his former team for the first time and, though he has pitched a little better recently, Oakland will have great familiarity on what to expect from him here. Also, Gray has had some struggles this season and might put extra pressure on himself in his first shot against his former club. Gray has a 6.00 ERA and 1.76 WHIP on the season. I know the A's have not been hitting well lately but when you look at the pitchers they've been facing that certainly has had a lot do with it. Their sticks should enjoy a breakout game versus Gray. As for the Yankees sluggers, they should feast on Graveman as he enters this start 0-5 with an 8.90 ERA and 1.84 WHIP on the season. Oakland is 3-1-1 to the over this season after an off day. New York is 8-2 to the over when off of a loss this season. Also, the Yankees are 11-2 to the over when facing a team with a losing record. Look for the over to improve to 3-1 in Graveman's last 4 starts and 4-1 on the season in Gray's home starts! 10* OVER the total in New York Yankees |
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05-10-18 | Jets +140 v. Predators | Top | 5-1 | Win | 140 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NHL Game #53 Thursday 10* Top Play Winnipeg Jets Money Line (+) @ Nashville Predators @ 8:05 ET - The Jets are 30-13 this season when playing with revenge. After getting blasted 4-0 on home ice Monday, they've had two days in between games so there is plenty of aggression ready to be unleashed on the ice Thursday. That said, in this Game 7 I look for Winnipeg to come out flying. Keep in mind the Jets have scored at least 3 goals in 6 of their last 7 visits to Nashville. There is certainly not a big home ice for the Predators here. The Jets have averaged 4 goals per game in their last 7 games here. The Preds have actually been held to 2 goals or less in 3 of their last 4 home games. In this series the road team has actually outshot the home team in 5 of the 6 games. I feel we're getting excellent line value here with the sizable road dog. The net edge in shots on goal in this series is 10 extra shots per game for the road team. On average every 10 shots usually equates to 1 goal. Give the road team the 1 goal edge here and look for Winnipeg to fire back strong after what happened in Game 6 north of the border. The Predators have lost 14 of 21 when tied in a playoff series. Also, Nashville has lost 14 of 24 (-$7,800) when off of a shutout win. The Jets are 12-5 this season when off of a loss by a margin of 2 or more goals this season and they bounce back strong here to advance to the Western Conference finals. 10* WINNIPEG |
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05-10-18 | Mariners v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #917 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners @ 7:05 ET - As you would expect, Blue Jays southpaw J.A. Happ has a lot more success against left-handed hitters than right-handed bats. Not only will the Mariners be loaded up on the right-handed side of the plate, the only left-handed bats likely to be in the lineup for Seattle here are guys that have had some success against Happ. Also, the Mariners .266 batting average away from home this season is one of the top marks in the majors. Yesterday's game stayed under the total but the Blue Jays had a dozen hits in the game. As for the Mariners, they had averaged 6.3 runs and 11 hits per game in their 3 games prior to struggling at the plate yesterday. The problem for the Mariners is that, other than the no-hitter by Paxton, they have allowed double digits in hits in each of their other games dating back to Friday of last week! The Blue Jays should enjoy plenty of success against a struggling Mike Leake. The Mariners right-hander has an 8.79 ERA on the road this season and he also has an ugly 9.21 ERA in his last 3 starts overall. The over is 6-1 in Leake's starts this season and only 2 of Happ's 7 starts this season have resulted in an under. Prior to yesterday's under, the over was 12-6 in Seattle's road games this season. Only 2 of the Blue Jays last 9 games versus a right-handed starter have stayed under the total. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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05-09-18 | 76ers +1.5 v. Celtics | Top | 112-114 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
THE Game of the Year - Rickenbach NBA Game #711 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 8 ET - Most all of you have likely heard the expression "let sleeping dogs lie". It is an old saying that essentially means this: avoid interfering in a situation that is currently causing no problems but might do so as a result of such interference. Here is the problem with the Celtics and what they did in Game 4 at Philly. Certainly entering the game the 76ers were dogs and Boston would have been better off not doing anything to provoke them. Instead the game became quite "testy" and at one point Philly native Marcus Morris (Celtics player) flashed a 3-0 signal with his hands to remind the Sixers what the series score was. Needless to say that is like twisting a stick into the belly of a sleeping dog. Philly head coach Brett Brown made a great move by starting TJ McConnell in Game 4 and he had a career game for the 76ers as it paid off huge for Philly. Lets not forget the Celtics are extremely well coached but still would be a much better team if they had Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward on the floor. The more talented team in this series (with those two guys missing for Boston) is Philadelphia. They are plenty alive and awake now and remember they lost Game 3 in OT and also the Game 2 loss at Boston was a narrow one. No team has ever come back from a 3-0 series deficit in the NBA but the Sixers are well aware that they just need one win here to send this series back to Philly with a chance to tie it up. They are rejuvenated and ironically one of the few times in the NHL in which a team won a series after being down 3-0 was when the Philadelphia (Flyers) rallied against the Boston (Bruins) in 2010. Boston had the home ice edge there just like the Celtics do in this series. This Sixers team is absolutely rejuvenated and revitalized after the Game 4 win and they carry extra motivation after some of what went on in Game 4 on the court. I also like the fact that at one point the line on this game was 76ers -1.5 but the markets are loving the Celtics here and now it is Boston that is much as a -1.5 point favorite as of early game day morning. I love fading line moves like this and look for Boston to drop to 5-8 SU the last 13 times they've been leading in a playoff series as the Sixers improve to 24-11 SU the last 35 times they were off of a win by a double digit margin. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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05-09-18 | Red Sox v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-9 | Win | 110 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #967 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:05 ET - This is a contrarian play as most will be looking at the under here because both of these pitchers have great numbers this season. The key here is that Red Sox/Yankees always brings a bit of a different "element" to the equation and I expect both starters to run into trouble here. The Yankees Masahiro Tanaka was pounded for 6 earned runs in 5 innings against the Red Sox last month. Boston's Rick Porcello was pounded for 6 runs (5 earned) the last time he faced the Yanks at Yankee Stadium. The over is 14-6 in Yankees home games this season and this includes 7-1 when New York is a favorite in a price range of -125 to -175. The over is 15-8 in Yankees games versus right-handed starters this season and that includes 3 of the last 4 going over the total. The Red Sox managed only 2 runs in yesterday's loss but they had previously averaged 6.1 runs per game in their last 7 games and scored 5 or more in all 7 games! The Yankees, with yesterday's win, have now won 7 straight. Though that was a low-scoring win, the Yanks previous 6 wins in the streak saw them average 5.5 runs per game. I am looking for a 6-5 type game here and certainly expecting nothing less than a 5-4 result which also puts in the winners circle! 10* OVER the total in the New York Yankees game |
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05-09-18 | Angels v. Rockies -132 | Top | 8-0 | Loss | -132 | 5 h 42 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #975 Wednesday 10* Top Play Colorado Rockies Money Line (-) vs Los Angeles Angels @ 3:10 ET - The Rockies are 6-0 in the month of May. Colorado is 10-4 versus teams with a winning record this season and also 14-6 versus right-handed starters. The Angels are just 4-9 versus teams with a winning record this season and I look for Los Angeles to drop to 1-4 in inter-league action with another loss today as the Rockies make it 7 in a row. Colorado's Tyler Anderson is a bit of an anomaly as, unlike most Rockies pitchers, he has performed better at home than on the road. Amazingly, Anderson is 9-5 with a stellar 3.36 ERA in his career outings at Coors Field! Look for the southpaw to hold a huge edge over 21-year old Jaime Barria. The rookie hurler has pitched well early this season but has as many walks (6) as strikeouts in his 13 innings of work. Making a road start at Coors Field for the first time is always tough on a hurler but this is especially true for a 21-year old rookie! Look for the Rockies to make if 5-0 in Anderson's last 5 starts. Also, the southpaw hasn't allowed more than 2 earned runs in a start since March! More of the same here! 10* COLORADO |
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05-08-18 | Pelicans v. Warriors OVER 227 | Top | 104-113 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #507 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Golden State Warriors vs New Orleans Pelicans @ 10:35 ET - New Orleans was held to just 92 points Sunday as they endured a horrific shooting performance versus the Warriors. The Pelicans are 12-5 to the over the last 17 times they've been held to 102 points or less. Also, the Game 4 loss was just the 4th time this season that New Orleans has been held to 39.5% or less from the field. The game after each of the first 3 occurrences went over the total all 3 times! Look for the record in this situation to improve to a perfect 4-0 this season. However, the issue for the Pelicans is the fact that they won't be able to stop the Warriors potent attack. Golden State is at home and wants to close this out tonight and avoid a trip back to New Orleans. As a result, look for the Warriors to push the pace here as they attempt to push the Pelicans right out of the post-season! The over is 7-1 in Golden State's last 8 home games. Also, after a loss by 10 points or more New Orleans is 12-5 to the over this season plus the over is 27-14 in Pelicans games in which they are playing with revenge. The over is 21-12 when the Warriors are leading in a playoff series and they'll keep their foot on the gas for all 48 minutes of this one at home. 10* OVER the total in Golden State |
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05-08-18 | Royals v. Orioles UNDER 8.5 | Top | 15-7 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #914 Tuesday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs Kansas City Royals @ 7:05 ET - Many will be looking at the over in this match-up because the O's Dylan Bundy is off of back to back tough starts and the Royals Danny Duffy has had a tough start to this season. However, this is actually an ideal spot for an under. Back to the pitchers in a minute but, first off, the Royals are averaging only 3.1 runs per game versus right-handed starters this season. The Orioles are averaging just 2.9 runs per game at home. Baltimore is averaging just 7.2 hits per game their last 9 games. The Royals have averaged just 3.3 runs and 6 hits per game in their last 3 games. Bundy had a 1.42 ERA in his first 5 starts this season and 3 of the 5 were at home. Look for him to bounce back here at home as he went 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA and 0.64 WHIP in his 2 starts versus the Royals last season. As for KC's Duffy, he is 2-1 with a 2.28 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in his 7 starts versus the Orioles in his career. The O's are loaded with free swingers and Duffy works off of deception as his key attribute. Don't be surprised when the Orioles struggle again to make good contact tonight. Duffy is off of a tough start at Boston but, prior to that he was quite solid in 4 of his previous 5 outings. In those 4 starts the Royals southpaw allowed only 15 hits while piling up 22 strikeouts in 23 innings of work. More of the same expected here as Duffy gets right back on track. The under is 6-1 in his 7 starts versus the Orioles and the under is 2-0 in Bundy's two lifetime starts versus the Royals. The under is 12-4 when Kansas City faces a team with a losing record this season and also the under is a perfect 5-0 when the Royals are playing after a day off. The under is 10-4 in Orioles home games this season. 10* UNDER the total in Baltimore |
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05-07-18 | Predators v. Jets -145 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -145 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
Best Bet Annihilation - Rickenbach NHL Game #4 Monday 10* Top Play Winnipeg Jets Money Line (-) vs Nashville Predators @ 9:35 ET - Many books opened this one up in the -160 range and yet the markets had pushed this as low as a -140. As of game day morning there are still some books as low as a -145 on this one. The fact is that the markets are still grasping on to the fact that the Predators made it all the way to the Stanley Cup Finals last spring. However, Nashville is not the hockey club they were last year and the Jets are on home ice where they've dominated. Winnipeg lost their most recent game on home ice (in Game 4) but the Jets had previously won 13 straight at home! What is amazing about this 13-1 run is that Winnipeg has allowed an average of just 2 goals per game! It is no wonder they've dominated on home ice with numbers like that because this is a Jets team that has averaged 4 goals per game on home ice this season! While Winnipeg is so tough on home ice, note that the Predators have now allowed 4 or more goals in 4 of the 5 games in this series! Pekka Rinne is struggling between the pipes and the Preds production on offense is also down as they've been held to 2 goals or less in 4 of their last 7 games. The home team has had more shots on goal in 4 of the 5 games in this series and the average margin has been 14 shots in those 4 games! With the Jets being the best team on home ice all season long (and yet losing their most recent game here), they are well worth laying the price here as they bring their top effort of the series in an effort close it out tonight at home. 10* WINNIPEG |
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05-07-18 | Raptors +6 v. Cavs | Top | 93-128 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #503 Monday 10* Top Play Toronto Raptors (+) @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 8:35 ET - Most will be looking for the Cavaliers, up 3-0 in this series, to close it out on their home floor Monday. However, even if Cleveland does that, it would not be too surprising if the Cavs fall short of the cover. After all, with Game 3's non-covering win, the Cavaliers are now 20-49 ATS as a favorite this season and also 13-33 ATS in home games! The loss for the Raptors marked the first time this season that they've lost 3 straight games. That is certainly noteworthy as Toronto is 5-2 ATS in recent seasons when they enter a game on a SU losing streak of 3 or more games. Also, the Raptors are 5-0 ATS (100% PERFECT) this season when they are an underdog of 4 or more points. As of very early game day morning, Toronto is catching a half-dozen points here and this is offering great value with the hungry underdog. The Raptors, with their cover Saturday, are now 6-1 ATS this season when they enter a game on a SU losing streak of 2 or more games. I expect Toronto to gut out a win and stay alive in this series. However, if they do fall short, look for it to be by 4 points or less. 6 of Cleveland's 7 playoff wins in this post-season have come by 4 points or less. 10* TORONTO |
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05-07-18 | Tigers -105 v. Rangers | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
No Doubt Blowout Rout - Rickenbach MLB Game #959 Monday 10* Top Play Detroit Tigers Money Line (-) @ Texas Rangers @ 8:05 ET - The Tigers are hitting .265 versus left-handed pitching this season and that has them ranked 3rd out of out 30 MLB teams. Detroit certainly should have no trouble with the offerings of a struggling Matt Moore here. The Rangers southpaw is off of a disastrous start at Cleveland. However, even though he is back home now, that isn't necessarily good new for Moore. In fact, Texas is 0-4 in the left-handers home starts this season and Moore has a 7.79 ERA in his outings at Globe Life Park in Arlington on the year. The Tigers Michael Fulmer certainly gives Detroit a decided pitching edge. He has a solid 2.80 ERA on the season and that includes a 1.89 ERA in his last 3 starts. Even though the Rangers are at home for this one, they're an awful 5-15 at home this season! The Tigers have struggled recently too but they've been swinging the bats much better than the Rangers. Detroit has averaged 11 hits per game in their last 6 road games while Texas has averaged just 5 hits per game in their last 3 games and all were at home. The Rangers are 0-5 in Monday games this season and I expect them to, once again, start the new week with another loss. In doing so, they'll also drop to 0-5 in Moore's home starts this season! 10* DETROIT |
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05-06-18 | Rockets v. Jazz OVER 209 | Top | 100-87 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #707 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Utah Jazz vs Houston Rockets @ 8:05 ET - The Jazz were held to just 92 points on their home floor in the Game 3 loss. Utah is a perfect 6-0 to the over they last 6 times they were off of a game where they scored 96 points or less. The Jazz should respond here and they might even get an extra boost with the return of guard Ricky Rubio. When trailing in a playoff series, Utah has gone 4-2 to the over. Also, the over is a perfect 9-0 in Sunday games for the Jazz this season! Houston is 4-1 to the over in this post-season when they are leading in a playoff series. The Rockets started slow in this post-season but they've now averaged 114.4 points per game their last 5 games. Houston is a 5-point favorite in this match-up. If the game hits right near the line and the Rockets hit their recent scoring average, you're talking about a 114-109 type game. That covers this total by double digits and that is exactly what I am looking for here. Houston likely to shoot even better from three point land as the Rockets rarely have 3 straight sub-par games from beyond the arc. The Jazz fight back hard in hopes of evening this series up. The result is plenty of points in this one. 10* OVER the total in Utah |
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05-06-18 | Cubs +101 v. Cardinals | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
No Doubt Blowout Rout - Rickenbach MLB Game #913 Sunday 10* Top Play Chicago Cubs Money Line (+) @ St Louis Cardinals @ 8:05 ET - The Cubs lost a tough one yesterday as they allowed 2 runs in the bottom of the 9th for the Cardinals to tie it and then allowed a 2-run bomb in the bottom of the 10th as the Cards got a huge walk-off win in extra frames. The fact is that Chicago's bullpen is normally solid but sometimes crazy things do happen and that was the case yesterday. Look for the Cubs to bounce back here as Jon Lester is a stellar 3-1 with a sparkling 1.63 ERA in his 6 career starts at St Louis. The Cubs southpaw will be opposed by the Cardinals Michael Wacha. The Cards are 5-10 in his 15 career starts versus Chicago and this comes as no surprise given the fact that Wacha has compiled a 6.34 ERA in those outings. His struggles against the Cubs continued last season and this one should turn into a road rout. St Louis went 0-4 in Wacha's 4 starts versus the Cubs last season. Chicago went 4-0 in Lester's 4 starts versus the Cardinals last season! More of the same in Sunday night baseball on ESPN as the road team avoids the sweep against their bitter division rivals. 10* CHICAGO CUBS |
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05-06-18 | Golden Knights v. Sharks -140 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -140 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NHL Game #66 Sunday 10* Top Play San Jose Sharks Money Line (-) vs Vegas Golden Knights @ 7:35 ET - No team has won 2 straight games in this series and I look for that pattern to continue here. The Sharks are 21-9 this season when off of a game where they allowed 4 or more goals. Also, when on home ice in that situation, it has been a perfect 4-0 run the last 4 occurrences. The Golden Knights are 4-5 their last 9 road games. Vegas has been held to 1 goal or less in 5 of last 9 road games. The Golden Knights have allowed 3 or more goals in 5 of last 7 games away from home. In Game 5 on home ice Vegas won the shots on goal battle but that was the first time since Game 1 and that first game had an edge of only 1 shot for the Golden Knights. The Sharks actually had outshot Vegas by 27 shots on goal in Games 2 through 4 and they'll wrestle back the momentum here on home ice where San Jose has won 13 of their last 18 games. With a very fair price here (moderate favorite), the Sharks are well worth the investment in this elimination game situation. 10* SAN JOSE |
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05-05-18 | Jets +145 v. Predators | Top | 6-2 | Win | 145 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NHL Game #61 Saturday 10* Top Play Winnipeg Jets Money Line (+) @ Nashville Predators @ 9:45 ET - The Jets won Game 1 in Nashville as Pekka Rinne had a bad game. Since then these teams have alternated wins and losses but Winnipeg has actually outshot the Predators in all 3 games. The Jets hold an edge of 128 to 100 in shots on goal over the Preds in the last 3 games. The road team has won 4 of the last 8 meetings between these teams and clearly there has been no home ice edge in recent match-ups between these teams. Keep in mind, in 2nd round games for all these series, the road team actually has won more than the home team. There continues to be value with road teams in the right spot and that is particularly true when they are the better team. I am convinced that Winnipeg is the better team in comparison with Nashville and we're getting a sizable plus money return here. Keep in mind, the Jets have held the Predators to 2 goals or less in 2 of the 4 games in this series. As for the Preds, prior to their Game 4 win, they had not held the Jets to less than 4 goals in any of the 4 prior games. In fact, Winnipeg averaged scoring 5 goals per game in those 4 games. Look for another offensive explosion from the Jets here as they come out firing on all cylinders after the 2-1 loss in Game 4 snapped a 13-game winning streak on home ice. The Jets are 29-13 this season when playing with revenge. Nashville is a long-term 7-13 when tied in a playoff series. 10* WINNIPEG |
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05-05-18 | Raptors +5 v. Cavs | Top | 103-105 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #703 Saturday 10* Top Play Toronto Raptors (+) @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 8:35 ET - This line doesn't make sense which is precisely why I am backing the dog here. The Cavs just finished up winning both games at Toronto including demolishing the Raptors in convincing fashion in Game 2 and yet now they are at home and opened up as only a 3.5 point favorite. Of course markets jumped all over that and have driven the line all the way up to as high as a 5 as of early game day morning. Going contrarian as per usual I am on the other side of this move. The Cavaliers only turned the ball over a total of 8 times in the first two games. This is ridiculous and will change. The Cavs averaged 14 turnovers per game in their prior 8 games before averaging just 4 turnovers per game their last 2. As for the Raptors they had forced an average of 13 turnovers per game in their 4 games previous to allowing an average of only 4 in the last two games versus the Cavs. Also, Cleveland is not going to shoot 59.5% from the field again in Game 3 like they did in Game 2. It didn't matter what they were throwing up Thursday night it was going in. That is helping to lead to value here for the hungry Raptors. Toronto is 14-4 SU off of an upset loss as a favorite this season and they also are 16-5 SU after allowing 115 points or more. The Cavaliers are just 20-47 ATS as a favorite and only 13-31 ATS in home games this season. Cleveland also is 2-10 ATS in Saturday games this season. More of the same here. 10* TORONTO |
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05-05-18 | Rockies +121 v. Mets | Top | 2-0 | Win | 121 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #961 Saturday 10* Top Play Colorado Rockies Money Line (+) @ New York Mets @ 7:10 ET - The Rockies don't have a good record versus left-handed starters this season but it truly doesn't make sense. Colorado leads the majors with 18 homers versus left-handed pitchers. Also, the Rockies slugging percentage (.429) versus southpaws is one of the best marks in the majors. We are getting good line value here with underdog Colorado having the starting pitcher whom is currently in better form. The Rockies Chad Bettis is 3-1 with a 2.43 ERA in his 6 starts this season and he has gone at least 7 innings in 3 of his last 4 starts. On the year he is holding opponents to a .202 batting average and he has compiled a 1.05 WHIP. Bettis has been working much deeper into games than his counterpart Steven Matz. The Mets southpaw is averaging only about 4 innings per game start and he has not gone longer than 5 and 1/3 innings in any of his 5 starts this season. Matz is now 3-9 with a 5.81 ERA in his 18 starts spanning last season and this season. The left-hander has particularly struggled against right-handed hitters and he'll face plenty of them in the Rockies lineup Saturday. Colorado has won 3 straight games and the Rockies are 7-4 this season versus teams with a winning record. New York is heading the other direction as the Mets have lost 4 straight and 11 of their last 16 games. 10* COLORADO |
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05-04-18 | Rockets v. Jazz +4.5 | Top | 113-92 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #516 Friday 10* Top Play Utah Jazz (+) vs Houston Rockets @ 10:35 ET - 3-point shooting comes and goes. The Rockets were the hot team in Game 1 and the Jazz were the hot team in Game 2 from beyond the arc. However, lets talk about what is going on inside the arc so far in this series. Houston has made 48 of 108 shots from 2-point land for a 44% shooting percentage while Utah has made a ridiculous 59 of 105 shots from inside the arc for a stellar 56% shooting percentage. You can tell who is getting the higher percentage shots / better looks at the basket so far in this series. Also, the Jazz have a shot 59.6% from the free throw line so far in this series. That is unusual and certainly won't continue based on their full season mark of 77.9% from the charity stripe. The Rockets defense has been subpar and they are 3-7 ATS this season when they enter a game on a streak of 3 or more consecutive overs. The point is that when Houston is not playing good defense and games are flying over the total, they generally don't cover spreads either! Also, the Rockets are a long-term 6-11 SU (and ATS) when tied in a playoff series. Utah is 3-1 SU (and ATS) when tied in a playoff series and they'll ride the momentum of the big Game 2 win plus returning to their home floor tonight. Note that the Jazz are 16-6 SU after scoring 115 points or more in a game this season and also 19-5 SU in their last 24 games against teams that average 106 points or more per game. 10* UTAH |
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05-04-18 | Red Sox v. Rangers OVER 9 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #919 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Boston Red Sox @ 8:05 ET - Yesterday's game flew over the total and the Rangers bats continue to heat up. Texas has won 5 of its last 8 games. The Rangers have averaged 6 runs per game their last 7 games and have reached double digits in hits in 4 of those 7 games. Rick Porcello has great numbers for the Red Sox so far this season. However, last season he did go 8-12 with a 5.47 ERA in his night starts. Though he was successful at Texas last season he did allow 2 homers in that game and, in his two prior starts versus the Rangers, Porcello was rocked for 23 hits in less than 13 innings of work. He'll be opposed by Bartolo Colon tonight. The veteran right-hander is finally coming back down to earth in his two most recent starts. Colon has allowed 7 earned runs on 13 hits including 3 homers in less than 13 innings of work. He also had just 2 strikeouts in each start. The Red Sox will be putting the ball in play all night as the Rangers bullpen has allowed a .264 batting average which ranks them in the bottom five of the majors! This total opened up at a 9.5 and dropped to a 9. I am going contrarian and going with the over in this one. The Red Sox have averaged 6 runs per game their last 6 games and 4 of the 6 have gone over the total. Boston is 15-8 to the over versus right-handed starters this season and 5-1 to the over in games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. The Texas over is 50-31 in home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs and the Rangers are also 8-3 to the over this season when off of a win. 10* OVER the total in Texas |
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05-04-18 | Lightning +145 v. Bruins | Top | 4-3 | Win | 145 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
Early Annihilation - Rickenbach NHL Game #23 Friday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Lightning Money Line (+) @ Boston Bruins @ 7:05 ET - The public is going to be all over the Bruins here. After all, they are on home ice and down 2-1 in this series. It is basically a must win for Boston. Here is the problem with that theory. The Lightning have proved throughout this series that they are the better and much deeper team. The only reason Tampa Bay lost Game 1 was because goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy had a rare poor game between the pipes. He certainly has bounced back, as expected, since then and the Bolts have dominated play throughout this series. Not only have the Bolts outshot the Bruins in every game in this series, it has been a decided edge. Tampa Bay has a 104-73 edge in shots on goal and yes that averages an edge of 10 extra shots on goal per game compared to Boston. I look for more of the same here. The Lightning are 21-6 in second round playoff games and also 8-4 (including 3-1 this season) when leading in a playoff series. Look for the Bruins to drop to 1-3 when trailing in a playoff series. Also, Boston is only 29-34 (-$15,100) when playing with home loss revenge. 10* TAMPA BAY |
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05-03-18 | 76ers -4 v. Celtics | Top | 103-108 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #509 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Boston Celtics @ 8:35 ET - The Celtics won Game 1 and that is perfect for setting up insane value here. Don't be surprised if that is the only game that Boston wins in this series. The scene will shift to Philly for Games 3 and 4 after tonight's game and I just don't see the Celtics winning again here. Did the 76ers perhaps come in overconfident Monday? One thing is for certainly Philadelphia head coach Brett Brown will have his team ready to go here and Boston is NOT going to make 17 of 36 three pointers again! Keep in mind, the Celtics outscored the Sixers by 36 points from three point land! If the teams were just "even" from beyond the arc, Philadelphia wins Game 1 by a 20 point margin! The 76ers dominated the boards in Game 1 and also did a better job of getting to the free throw line as they had very nearly twice as many attempts as Boston. Additionally, from inside the arc, Philly made 30 shots while the Celtics made only 24. There is an old saying about "live by the three die by the three" and the fact is that Boston only won Game 1 because of 3-point shooting and that is certainly not expected to continue here. In their 5 prior games, the Celtics were held to 34.6% or less in all 5 games! Boston is also banged up and the Sixers certainly hold the "health edge" here. When playing with 2 days of rest between games the 76ers went 12-4 ATS this season while the Celtics went 6-8 SU. Look for Boston to drop to 3-7 SU the last 10 times they have held a lead in a playoff series. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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05-03-18 | Capitals +150 v. Penguins | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NHL Game #19 Thursday 10* Top Play Washington Capitals Money Line (+) @ Pittsburgh Penguins @ 7:05 ET - The public is going to be on Pittsburgh here. The Penguins are the two-time defending Stanley Cup Champions and are in a 2-1 hole on home ice. Of course with the public backing Pittsburgh you know where my money is but it is not without good logic. The fact is that the Tom Wilson suspension for the Capitals could have an interesting impact here. Are the Penguins ready to battle back in this series or will they get caught playing too physical trying to retaliate for the Wilson hit that broke the jaw of Zach Aston-Reese? The fact is that this could actually prove to be a bit of a distraction for the Pens. As for the Caps, they've had so much playoff disappointment there is no way Alex Ovechkin and Company aren't coming out strong in this one. Washington knows they can not afford to take their foot off the gas and what I particularly love about the value in this play is that there is always significant shading toward the home team in hockey and yet it doesn't add up here! The road team has won 7 of the last 10 playoff games in this match-up. With their win in Game 3, Washington now has wins in 3 of their last 4 playoff games played at Pittsburgh. Remember last year's series went 7 games and the road team won 5 of those. The road team is 2-1 so far in his year's series and the Capitals Braden Holtby has been sharper than the Penguins Matt Murray so far in this series. 10* WASHINGTON |
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05-03-18 | Dodgers +112 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 5-2 | Win | 112 | 7 h 46 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #955 Thursday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Dodgers Money Line (+) @ Arizona Diamondbacks @ 3:40 ET - The very first line that popped up on this game when first released yesterday had the Dodgers as a -110 favorite. Now the markets have reacted and the Diamondbacks are as high as a -135 favorite as of early this morning. Of course Arizona has the better record on the year, is 8-0 when off of a loss this season, and has a 4-0 Patrick Corbin on the mound while Los Angeles has an 0-3 Alex Wood on the mound. As usual, I am going contrarian in a spot like this because the odds makers opened LA as a favorite for a reason. Secondly, Wood has pitched much better than his record shows. The Dodgers southpaw has a 0.89 WHIP on the season. As for the Diamondbacks southpaw, he allowed 3 earned runs on 7 hits in less than 7 innings of work in his most recent start. Of course that is still a quality outing and Corbin has pitched well. However, don't be surprised if Wood outduels him today. This is a rematch of an early April game between these two lefties. Corbin won that one but previously he allowed 6 earned runs on 16 hits in less than 11 innings of work in his 2 prior starts versus the Dodgers. As for Wood, previous to April, he had held the Diamondbacks to just 2 earned runs on only 9 hits in 13 innings in his 2 prior starts versus Arizona. LA is 63-36 in day games while the Dbacks are only 54-54. Look for the Dodgers to improve to 8-4 this season when off of a win. 10* LOS ANGELES DODGERS |
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05-02-18 | Jazz +11 v. Rockets | Top | 116-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #507 Wednesday 10* Top Play Utah Jazz (+) @ Houston Rockets @ 8:05 ET - There are some statistical outliers from Game 1 of this series that make this a fantastic spot to grab the big dog. Keep in mind, the Jazz lost Game 1 by only 14 points even though the Rockets hit a ridiculous 17 of 32 from three point land and Utah made only 13 of 22 free throws! Yes, Houston is known for their 3-point shooting but they hit only 36.2% on the season. The Jazz actually hit 36.5% of their threes on the season! As for that unusual free throw shooting, Utah made 77% of their shots from the charity stripe on the season. The point is that, given normal shooting of free throws and three pointers, the JAZZ would have WON Game 1 by 8 points! That's right, Utah would have made 1 more three and 4 more free throws while the Rockets would have made 5 less threes. The result is a 22 point swing from a 14 point win for Houston to a win for Utah by a margin of 8 points. The beauty here is we don't need the Jazz to win, we just need them to cover and, as you can see, Game 1 had some crazy shooting results and yet the Rockets still barely covered! I am all over the value with big dog Utah in Game 2. The Jazz are 18-5 SU their last 23 game against team that average 106 points or more per game and they are also 10-6 SU/ATS when playing with 2 days of rest between games. The Rockets are 5-10 ATS when playing with 2 days of rest between games. Certainly the extra time off sometimes effects the shooting stroke of Houston's outside shooters. 10* UTAH |
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05-02-18 | Lightning +120 v. Bruins | Top | 4-1 | Win | 120 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NHL Game #55 Wednesday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Lightning Money Line (+) @ Boston Bruins @ 7:05 ET - The Bolts outshot the Bruins by a combined 67-44 in the two games in Tampa. However, they only have a 1-1 split to show for it and that means TB must get at least 1 win in Boston to wrestle back the home ice edge in this series. Look for that win to come tonight. The Lightning are 7 for 25 (28%) on the power play in road games dating back to late March. In their last 19 penalty kills on the road, the Bolts have conceded just 2 goals! The Bruins are on an overall 3 for 16 run on the power play their last 7 games. Very few chances and a conversion rated below 20%! Also, Boston has allowed 5 power play goals on their opponents last 15 chances with the man advantage. Allowing opponents to convert 33% of power play opportunities is bad news! The Bruins are 15-17 (-$10,600) when tied in a playoff series and I feel they are again over-priced in that role here at home. In second round playoff games, the Lightning are an incredible 20-6 (+$13,200) and I'll gladly grab the underdog value here with the team playing better overall hockey, getting better goaltending, and playing better on special teams as well. 10* TAMPA BAY |
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05-02-18 | Padres v. Giants OVER 8 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #903 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres @ 3:45 - Last night's game stayed under the total but, prior to this, both of these teams had been trending over the total. Also, the ball tends to carry better in day games at AT & T Park. Even though temperatures will only be around 60 degrees today in San Francisco, the wind will be picking up and blowing toward left center at a good clip. This will help the "carry effect" even more on balls hit well and we should see plenty of those this afternoon given this pitching match-up. The Giants Derek Holland is winless on the season and he has a 7.07 ERA in his last 3 starts. The Padres Clayton Richard is off of back to back losses and has a 5.35 ERA on the season and his ERA is 6.30 on the road this year. The over is 4-1 the last 5 times San Francisco has faced a southpaw starter. The over was 3-0 in San Diego's 3 games prior to last night's low-scoring win staying under the total. The over is 7-4 in Giants day games, 10-6 in their home games, and 11-6 when facing a left-handed starter. Coming into yesterday's game the Giants had averaged scoring 6 runs per game in their 5 prior games and the Padres had averaged 11.3 hits per game in their 3 prior games. The hot hitting for both clubs is likely to resume Wednesday given the pitching match-up and the favorable hitting conditions in an afternoon game by the bay. 10* OVER the total in San Francisco |
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05-01-18 | Pelicans +11.5 v. Warriors | Top | 116-121 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #709 Tuesday 10* Top Play New Orleans Pelicans (+) @ Golden State Warriors @ 10:35 ET - Steph Curry is expected back for tonight's game. Of course this has resulted in a jump in this line. However, will he be 100%? Will he be ready to step right in without disrupting the current flow of the Warriors? The fact is that he has hardly played in the past two months. Will there be an adjustment phase for both Curry and for Golden State in terms of working him back into the mix? I absolutely believe so and there is excellent value with a hungry Pelicans team off of an embarrassing loss in Game 1 and catching huge points in Game 2. Keep in mind Golden State was just "making everything" in the first half of that Game 1 victory and that got New Orleans into a big hole early. That will not be the case tonight and you're going to see the Pelicans playing with plenty of resolve and determination after the embarrassment of Game 1's result. Keep in mind, New Orleans entered this series on a 9-0 SU and ATS run their last 9 games. The Pelicans have averaged 116.5 points per game their last 10 games. New Orleans is 7-4 ATS (and 8-3 SU) when playing with 2 days of rest between games. Also, the Pelicans are 28-16 ATS in road games this season. The Warriors are only 6-9 ATS when playing with 2 days of rest between games and also are 1-8 ATS in Tuesday games this season. Golden State is on an 8-20 ATS run against teams with a winning record and they are over-priced here. 10* NEW ORLEANS |
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05-01-18 | Capitals +120 v. Penguins | Top | 4-3 | Win | 120 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NHL Game #51 Tuesday 10* Top Play Washington Capitals Money Line (+) @ Pittsburgh Penguins @ 7:35 ET - The Capitals got the Game 2 win on home ice. However, road teams have dominated the post-season games involving BOTH the Caps and the Pens in these playoffs. Prior to the Game 2 result, the Penguins prior 6 post-season games had seen the road team go a perfect 6-0! As for Washington, the road team had won 6 of their 7 prior post-season games! Pittsburgh is the more banged up team entering this contest. While Washington's Tom Wilson is probable (no suspension), the Penguins have 3 players listed as questionable for tonight's game. Brian Dumoulin, Carl Hagelin, and Evgeni Malkin are all dealing with injuries. The Pens are just 1 for 15 on the power play their last 5 games. The Capitals have converted 10 of their last 31 power plays. Look for the road dominance involving both of these hockey clubs to continue here. 10* WASHINGTON |
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05-01-18 | Rangers +173 v. Indians | Top | 8-6 | Win | 173 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #965 Tuesday 10* Top Play Texas Rangers Money Line (+) @ Cleveland Indians @ 6:10 ET - There is a reason this money line opened up in the -200 range on the Indians but has dropped. There is some sharp money coming in on the Rangers and an upset is in the offing here. The Indians are sending Mike Clevinger to the mound for this one. The Cleveland right-hander has a 7.20 ERA in his last two home starts as he has allowed 4 earned runs in each outing. He has been hit at a .313 clip at home this season. Also, lefties have hit him better than righties this season. This holds some significance here because the Rangers roster of position players includes 6 left-handed sticks and a switch-hitter. Clevinger was hit 77 points higher by lefties than righties last season. The Rangers Doug Fister had an early season trip to the DL but he shook off the rust in his first start back last week. Also, his overall numbers last season don't tell the full story. He allowed 3 earned runs or less in 11 of his 15 starts. He got hit at just a .245 clip after the All-Star break. The 6'8 Fister is an intimidating presence on the mound and he still has "good stuff" and also has plenty of confidence pitching at Cleveland. His last start against the Indians was here at Progressive Field and he held the Tribe to just a single earned run in 9 innings and that was on just 1 hit the entire game as Cleveland managed only a solo bomb as their lone hit in that match-up. Look for Fister to pitch another gem here and the Rangers get the surprising upset on the road. 10* TEXAS |
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04-30-18 | 76ers v. Celtics OVER 207.5 | Top | 101-117 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #555 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Celtics vs Philadelphia 76ers @ 8:05 ET - Sixers head coach Brett Brown spent many years on the Spurs coaching staff and learned plenty from San Antonio head coach Gregg Popovich. That said, Brown knows exactly what to do in this spot. He has a very talented Philadelphia team that can put up a ton of points in a hurry and they are well-rested with fresh legs here as they have not played since Monday! Brown knows he is catching a weary Celtics team that just finished battling a 7-game series with the Bucks that wrapped up on Saturday. The 76ers will be playing just their 3rd game in 10 days while Boston will be playing their 6th game in 11 days! You can plainly see which team is going to be fresher here and coach Brown is smart enough to have his team "run and gun" here. That could stake Philly to an early lead which helps take the crowd out of it but it also will allow the fresh legs of the 76ers to wear down a Celtics team coming off of that grueling battle with the Bucks. The Boston over is 11-3 their last 14 games. Also, the Celtics are 21-9 to the over their last 30 games when they face a team that averages 106 points or more per game. Look for the Philadelphia over to go to 4-1 this season when they are playing with 3 or more days of rest between games. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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04-30-18 | Bruins v. Lightning -145 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NHL Game #16 Monday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Lightning Money Line (-) vs Boston Bruins @ 7:05 ET - The Lightning lost game one badly on home ice but actually outshot the Bruins 36 to 24. Off of a rare sub-par game, Andrei Vasilevskiy will bounce back between the pipes tonight for Tampa Bay. The Bolts are 10-3 this season when playing with home loss revenge. Also, the Lightning are 43-25 (including 13-5 this season) when off of a loss by a margin of two goals or more. The Bruins are a long-term 64-87 in road games with a posted total of 6 or more goals. Also, Boston is 2-4 when leading in a playoff series. The Lightning are 4-0 the last 4 times they've been held to two goals or less in a game. I just don't see TB going down 2 games to 0 on home ice to open up this series. That said, even though -145 is a moderate price range, I am fully comfortable elevating the rating on this one to my Top Play level. 10* TAMPA BAY |
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04-30-18 | Rangers v. Indians OVER 8 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #913 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Indians vs Texas Rangers @ 6:10 ET - The Rangers Cole Hamels has only 1 win in 6 career starts versus the Indians as he has compiled a 6.11 ERA versus Cleveland. Not surprisingly, given those numbers, the over is 5-0 in Hamels 6 career starts versus the Tribe. The Texas southpaw got crushed at Cleveland in his most recent start here which was in late June last year. The Indians send Trevor Bauer to the mound for this one. The Indians right-hander has decent numbers versus the Rangers in his career but only 1 of the 4 games has resulted in an under. Look for the over to improve to 4-1 in Rangers Monday games on the season. Texas road games have resulted in just 1 under in their last 6 games away from home. Cleveland is 7-1 to the over in their last 8 home games and that includes 4 in a row after yesterday's 10-4 loss the Mariners. I know both of these starting pitchers have decent numbers this season but their long-term history points to overs when matched up with the opponent they'll be facing today. Also, this is a low total of 8 runs and the Rangers, prior to yesterday's ugly loss, had scored at least 4 runs in 6 of their last 7 games. The Indians have scored at least 4 runs in 5 straight games. The significance in this is that a 4-4 game guarantees us of no less than a 5-4 final and that puts us in the winners circle tonight! 10* OVER the total in Cleveland |
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04-29-18 | Mets -125 v. Padres | Top | 14-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #963 Sunday 10* Top Play New York Mets Money Line (-) @ San Diego Padres @ 4:10 ET - The Mets got blasted 12-2 yesterday and, though they have been struggling a bit they certainly haven't been as low as the Padres. Prior to that big win for the home team yesterday, San Diego had lost 8 of its last 10 games. Today the Padres send Bryan Mitchell to the mound and the Padres are 0-3 in his home starts. Mitchell has compiled a 7.07 ERA and has an ugly 2.00 WHIP in his home outings this season. The Mets will have Zack Wheeler on the mound. New York is 2-0 in his road starts this season and he can be expected to bounce back after a tough outing in his last start away from home. On the season Wheeler has still allowed only 15 hits in his 17 innings of work. After getting drilled yesterday, the Mets should respond here. They are 6-2 off of a loss this season and also 6-2 in day games on the year. The Padres are an ugly 1-6 in day games this season. Also, San Diego is just 5-12 versus right-handed starters this season. Nice line value here with a small road favorite against one of the worst teams in baseball. 10* NEW YORK METS |
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04-29-18 | Jazz +11.5 v. Rockets | Top | 96-110 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #553 Sunday 10* Top Play Utah Jazz (+) @ Houston Rockets @ 3:35 ET - The Jazz are without point guard Ricky Rubio and the line has really jumped on this game as a result. Utah is approaching being a dog by a dozen points here. Keep in mind, they lost Rubio to a strained hamstring very early in their series clinching win over Oklahoma City Friday. In other words, they played just fine without him. Sure Rubio contributes in a lot of ways but it certainly hadn't been his shooting in the Thunder series. He was in an awful slump and the time out with the hamstring injury may not be such a bad thing for Rubio (to get back on track) or for the Jazz as they'll compensate well for his absence here. Utah has multiple ways to modify their lineup sans Rubio and they'll be just fine here so I am glad to contrarian and grab the extra value here as everyone jumps on the Rockets at home. Houston struggled to find their rhythm on offense for long stretches in their series with the Timberwolves. They did not shoot the ball particularly well until the Game 5 victory. Now the Rockets will have to contend with a much tougher defense than what Minnesota presented. The Jazz use their defense to take down better offensive teams. That is why Utah is on an 18-4 SU run (16-6 ATS) versus teams that average 106 points or more per game. Also, the Jazz are 6-2 ATS in Sunday games this season. The Rockets are just 4-8 ATS their last 12 games. Also, when Houston enters a game on a totals streak of 3 or more consecutive overs, they've gone 2-6 ATS this season. Look for the Jazz defense to be the difference maker here. 10* UTAH |
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04-29-18 | Reds v. Twins OVER 9 | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #979 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Cincinnati Reds @ 2:10 ET - Strong south wind and mild temperatures at Target Field this afternoon. It will make for a nice day for the hitters. The south wind blowing out toward the left field corner. The key here is that Jose Berrios is coming off of a rough start for the Twins as he got hit hard by the Yankees in his most recent start. As great as his overall numbers have been last season and so far this year, he is much more susceptible to left-handed sticks than righties. That will prove to be an issue here as the Reds are loaded with left-handed lumber and also have a couple of switch-hitters. Cincinnati is likely to load their lineup from that side of the plate in this one and should enjoy success on a hitter-friendly day at Target Field. As for the Twins hitting in this one, they are likely to pound Tyler Mahle. The Reds right-hander has a 6.51 ERA and 2.17 WHIP in his two road starts this season. He has allowed 5 homers in his last 3 starts. The over was 7-1 in the Twins last 8 games prior to yesterday's game staying under the total. The over was 5-1 in the Reds last 6 games prior to Saturday's low-scoring loss. Long-term the over is 88-53 when the Twins are facing a team with a losing record. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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04-28-18 | Pelicans +9 v. Warriors | Top | 101-123 | Loss | -107 | 16 h 28 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #551 Saturday 10* Top Play New Orleans Pelicans (+) @ Golden State Warriors @ 10:35 ET - Stephen Curry is likely coming back for the Warriors in Game 1 of the Western Conference Semifinals. That has caused this line to jump up to a 9 as of early game day morning. The fact is that he is unlikely to be 100% right out of the gate and his shooting is also unlikely to be as sharp as usually. Keep in mind, Curry has hardly seen any game action since very early March. Golden State is hosting a red hot Pelicans team that also has added confidence from winning on this very floor in early April. That victory is part of the red hot 9-0 SU/ATS run that the Pelicans are bringing into this game. It is no fluke either as New Orleans is 9-3 SU/ATS their last 12 road games! When a team is that hot and winning like that away from home, they are a force to be reckoned with and I like the added line value here of this one now approaching double digits! The Pelicans are 13-7 ATS this season in road games with a posted total of 220 points or more. The Warriors are 5-10 ATS in their last 15 home games and that long-term stretch dates all the way back to the All Star break. The Pelicans are shooting 52.8% from the field in their last 7 games. Golden State has been held under 44.7% from the field in 2 straight and 3 of their last 6 games. The Pelicans are geared up for the upset here and if they do fall short I expect the generous points offered here to prove to be more than enough. 10* NEW ORLEANS |
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04-28-18 | Sharks v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 130 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NHL Game #89 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Vegas Golden Knights vs San Jose Sharks @ 8:05 ET - Before an embarrassing, ugly shutout loss in Game 1 of this series, the Sharks had won 5 of their last 6 games and averaged 4 goals per game. As for the Golden Knights, they've now won 9 of their past 12 games and Vegas has averaged scoring 3 goals per game during this stretch. The over 5.5 here is available with a plus money payback as high as a +130 as of early game day morning. The Sharks have had only 5 of their last 19 games result in an under. In San Jose's last 8 second round playoff games there has not been a single under. There have been just 3 unders in the Golden Knights last 8 games. The Sharks last 4 games have featured 10 special teams goals (power play or while on the penalty kill). Vegas has scored 8 power play goals in their last 7 home games. Look for more of the same here as San Jose comes out aggressive after the embarrassing Game 1 loss but the Golden Knights respond well and that leads to quite a few goals in this one! 10* OVER the total in Vegas |
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04-28-18 | Rockies -107 v. Marlins | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -107 | 3 h 27 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #909 Saturday MLB 10* Top Play Colorado Rockies Money Line (-) @ Miami Marlins @ 7:10 ET - UPDATE NOTE: Wei-yin Chen is now expected to get this start for the Marlins. This is still a big play for me. Chen has been better on the road than at home in each of his two seasons with Miami. Chen compiled a 5.49 ERA at home in 11 starts in 2016. Also, in 2017 Chen only pitched in limited action but did compile a 7.20 ERA at home as he again was much better on the road. Look for him to struggle again here. Chen pitched well in his rehab starts (he is working his way back from injury) but those outings were with single A Jupiter. ORIGINAL WRITE-UP: The Rockies opened up in the -150 range and are now down around a pick'em! This is huge value to grab a winning team against a struggling home team. I understand that some are expecting German Marquez to struggle here as he is off of a rough outing versus the Cubs but that was at home in hitter-friendly Coors Field. On the road this season Colorado is 2-0 in Marquez starts and the Rockies right-hander has compiled a 1.64 ERA. Another key to the value here is that Colorado has a .469 slugging percentage versus left-handed pitching this season. Caleb Smith gets the start for the Marlins here and the southpaw could struggle. The southpaw has not worked deep into games. He is off of his best start of the season and logged 6 innings but previously his average start this season had lasted 4 innings. Also, he entered the strong start at Milwaukee having allowed 11 earned runs in the 10 and 1/3 innings spanning his 3 prior starts. Not working deep (Smith) is a problem exasperated by the fact that the Marlins bullpen has been one of the worst in the majors this season. Though the Rockies bullpen has some sub-par numbers that has to do with home games in a hitter-friendly park. Colorado's pen is 7-3 this season and they have a rather low BAA. Some great arms in this Rockies pen and I like Marquez over Smith in terms of the starters. The Marlins are 3-10 in home games and 4-14 in night games and 0-4 on Saturdays this season! The Rockies are 10-5 on the road this season and are 9-3 the last 3 seasons when they are a road fave of -125 to -175. I do expect this line will go back up but either way Colorado is the play here as the Marlins continue to be given more credit than they are due. This is a bad Miami team and the Rockies (and you and I!) will take advantage again today. 10* COLORADO |
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04-27-18 | Jets +136 v. Predators | Top | 4-1 | Win | 136 | 14 h 23 m | Show |
Top Play Special - Rickenbach NHL Game #83 Friday 10* Top Play Winnipeg Jets Money Line (+) @ Nashville Predators @ 8:05 ET - The home team will get plenty of love here from the markets but the Jets have won 4 of their last 5 road games and I was more impressed with the Minnesota club they beat then the Avalanche team the Predators got past in the first round. Yes the Avs have some talent but they didn't have their starting goalie and then they lost their #2 goalie during the series and yet the Predators still were taken to 6 games in that series. What the Jets did against the Wild was much more impressive as, keep in mind, Colorado barely even made it into the post-season and their goalie situation was troublesome. Both Winnipeg and Nashville enter this series off of shutout wins to end their prior respective series. The Predators have lost 13 of 23 (-$6,200) when off of a shutout win in recent seasons while the Jets have won 6 of 8 this season when off of a shutout victory. The Preds only 11-11 in Friday games in recent seasons while Winnipeg has won 11 of 15 Friday games this season. The Jets enters this series having converted 3 of last 12 power plays while the Predators are 0 for 9 with the man advantage in their last 3 games. Also, Pekka Rinne had a couple of rough games in the Avs series while Connor Hellebuyck has had only 1 bad start in his last 7 starts. I like the value with the underdog here. 10* WINNIPEG |
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04-27-18 | Cavs v. Pacers OVER 204 | Top | 87-121 | Win | 100 | 15 h 22 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #511 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Indiana Pacers vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 8:05 ET - With all the games in this series staying under the closing number, the downward trend on the posted totals in these games has continued. With tonight's game also being a possible elimination game for the Pacers, we are being given additional line value with the low posted total on this one. I expect Indiana to come out with a ton of energy and to also sustain it. The Pacers have lost 3 of the last 4 games in this series so clearly the grinder style of games is not suiting them. They need to take advantage of getting quick points in transition and push the tempo a little bit and try to change things up here in Game 6. Indiana has shot better on the road than at home in this series and, of course, that is the inverse of what you would expect. Don't look for that trend to continue here. Look for a shootout tonight with plenty of threes as well as quick points in transition. The Cavaliers wrapped up the regular season with an O/U mark of 6-3 in road games and Game 4 of this series in Indiana did go over the total for all but later bettors (closed at 206). As for the Pacers, they averaged 106.4 points per game at home this season and I have a strong feeling about what is coming tonight in terms of tempo and that should lead to an easy over in this one. 10* OVER the total in Indiana |
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04-27-18 | Rockies -125 v. Marlins | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
No Doubt Blowout Rout - Rickenbach MLB Game #959 Friday 10* Top Play Colorado Rockies Money Line (-) @ Miami Marlins @ 7:10 ET - Both of these teams are off of back to back wins but that is where the similarities between these teams stop! The Marlins, prior to their consecutive wins, had lost 8 of their 9 prior games. On the season, the Rockies (14) have twice as many wins as the Marlins (7). Tyler Anderson gets the start for the Rockies and he has a 2.70 ERA with 20 strikeouts in 16 and 2/3 innings over his last 3 starts. He'll be matched up with Jose Urena. Though Urena is a hard-throwing right-hander, the Marlins are 0-5 in his starts this season. Also, he is 0-2 with a 6.60 ERA in his last 3 starts. Another concern with Urena he has averaging only 5 innings a start on the season. The worst bullpen in the National League so far this season in terms of earned run average is the Marlins pen as they are 4-7 with a 5.67 ERA on the year and only 2 saves in just 5 save opportunities. I don't think they'll have a save opportunity here either as the Rockies dominate. Miami is off of their first back to back wins of the season as they had been 0-5 this season when off of a win. The Marlins are just 3-9 in home games and only 4-13 in night games. Colorado is a solid 9-5 in road games this season and, after opening up in the 150 range and now dropping to the 125 range as of early game day morning, there is superb line value here on the Rockies as a small road favorite. 10* COLORADO |
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04-26-18 | Celtics v. Bucks -4.5 | Top | 86-97 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #502 Thursday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks (-) vs Boston Celtics @ 8:05 ET - This line was as high as a -5.5 and is now down to a 4.5 (with reduced juice too) as of early game day morning. I like the value we're seeing here with the Bucks on their home floor considering they had 89 shots from the field (compared to just 69 for the Celtics) in the 5-point loss at Boston on Tuesday. Prior to that game Milwaukee was hitting over 52% in this series so the likelihood of a bounce back (particularly since they are back home) is quite high. The Bucks are 33-17 SU as a favorite this season and I like them to cover the small number in the process of another SU win here. At home, Milwaukee will be the better shooting team tonight and the Celtics may struggle a bit as they feel the pressure of trying to close it out and avoid a winner takes all Game 7. Keep in mind there is some history with this as Boston is only 3-5 SU when leading in a playoff series in recent seasons. They've haven't played well in this situation but they truly have been getting a number of fortunate covers. This is why the Celtics have such a strong ATS record and are becoming a public favorite...they've been getting the cash. But tonight the public will be burned on this one because the Bucks roll at home. Remember 87 to 69 field goal attempts in Game 5 on the road at Boston. You know what is coming tonight from the hungry Bucks. 10* MILWAUKEE |
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04-26-18 | Penguins v. Capitals -120 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NHL Game #88 Thursday 10* Top Play Washington Capitals Money Line (-) vs Pittsburgh Penguins @ 7:05 ET - The Penguins are without Evgeni Malkin and Carl Hagelin for this game. The Capitals have playoff revenge from last year when they rallied back against the Penguins (after being down 3-1 in series) but lost Game 7 on home ice. The Caps will be ready here and they have plenty of momentum after the way they battled with Columbus. Sometimes it actually helps a team to keep playing and not have any extended time off. Right now Washington is in a good cycle with game day and off day basically alternating perfectly. The Capitals did get some extra rest with their clinching win coming Monday. The Penguins wrapped up their series even though as they wrapped up Sunday with the Flyers. The Pens also have extra rest but the losses of Malkin and Hagelin are definitely impacting. The Pens have lost 16 of 29 (-$7,900) this season in road games with a posted total of 6 goals or more. Both teams have been strong on the penalty kill in this post-season but the Capitals have the edge on the power play. Pittsburgh has converted 6 of 31 with the advantage dating back to their regular season finale. The Capitals have scored on 9 of their last 27 power plays! 10* WASHINGTON |
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04-26-18 | Mariners -101 v. Indians | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
No Doubt Blowout Rout - Rickenbach MLB Game #911 Thursday 10* Top Play Seattle Mariners Money Line (-) @ Cleveland Indians @ 6:10 ET - The Mariners James Paxton is off of a bad start but that is rare. He is one of the top southpaw arms in the league right now and he entered that start having compiled a 2.65 ERA in his 3 prior starts while notching 24 strikeouts in 17 innings of work. Now he'll face an Indians team that is tied for the worst mark in the American League with a .209 batting average versus left-handed pitching this season. Look for Paxton to get right back on track as he brings a little extra "juice" to the mound here after being knocked around some by the Rangers in his most recent start. As for the Indians Mike Clevinger, he is off of one of the best starts of his career but he entered that start having allowed 4 earned runs in 4 innings in his prior start. Also, he had given up 13 hits in his last 11 and 1/3 innings prior to the strong start against Baltimore. He'll be facing a Mariners team that has a .464 slugging percentage in night games this season and that ranks Seattle 4th in the majors. The Indians beat the Cubs yesterday but had been 2-5 this season against teams with a wining record. Look for Paxton to bounce back strong while Clevinger comes back down to earth as he faces a much tougher lineup in this one than he faced in dominating the Orioles in his last start. 10* SEATTLE |
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04-25-18 | Wolves v. Rockets OVER 215.5 | Top | 104-122 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #713 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Rockets vs Minnesota Timberwolves @ 9:35 ET - The very first number that popped up on this total was a 219. The markets have pounced on it and have pounded it down to as low as a 215.5 as of early game day morning. I'll gladly grab the additional line value here. The Wolves are down 3-1 in this series so they have no option but to pull off a huge upset here if they want to stay alive in this post-season. That said, there is great value with the over here because the Rockets are going to push the pace and look to close out big at home. The first two games in this series were played in Houston and both stayed under the total. However, the Rockets shot uncharacteristically poor from 3-point land in those two games. They've gotten hotter since then as they've shot better from beyond the arc in the last two games, both played in Minnesota. That said, I look for them to be even hotter still in Game 5 as they're back on their home floor and have found their shooting stroke again. The Timberwolves have hit 40% of their threes in this series and I look for this one to turn into a run and gun affair. We're simply getting value here because the first two games in Houston stayed under the total. Given this elimination setting and the Rockets game plan to run the Wolves out of the playoffs by running them right of the arena, this will be a shootout tonight. Look for the over to improve to 6-3 when the Rockets are leading in a playoff series. Minnesota is 9-4 to the over when they are off of a loss by double digits. 10* OVER the total in Houston |
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04-25-18 | Maple Leafs +155 v. Bruins | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NHL Game #25 Wednesday 10* Top Play Toronto Maple Leafs Money Line (+) @ Boston Bruins @ 7:35 ET - The Maple Leafs are rolling with confidence right now. Yes the first two games of this series were ugly losses at Boston. However, they won Game 5 here and, overall, have now won 3 of the last 4 games in this series. In those games Toronto has outscored Boston 12-9. After falling behind 3-1 in the series, the Leafs have rallied back to force a Game 7. The confidence of this team, the way that goalie Frederik Andersen has responded after some tough times, the fact that the pressure is on Boston here to avoid another collapse in a playoff series...it all adds up to quite a lot of line value on the underdog Maple Leafs in this one. Toronto has won 8 of the last 12 match-ups between these teams. Andersen was in goal for all but one of those dozen games. Look for him to be a difference maker here. He has a .936 save percentage the last 4 games. As for the Bruins Tuukka Rask, he has an .894 save percentage in the last 4 games. Boston is just 1 for 9 on the power play in the last 4 games while the Maple Leafs are 3 for 10 on the power play in the last 5 games. Of course the Bruins have revenge here after dropping back to back games in this series but they have lost 66 of 119 (money burning -$34,800) when playing with revenge in recent seasons. 10* TORONTO |
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04-25-18 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies -107 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
No Doubt Blowout Rout - Rickenbach MLB Game #957 Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 7:05 ET - The fact that Zack Greinke is on the mound for the Diamondbacks is helping to keep this line in check. The Phillies are off of a loss but have been playing extremely well and Jake Arrieta is looking like the "Cy Young version" of Arrieta recently. These factors should lead to a solid win for the Phils at home in this one. There is a chance of light rain in the Philly area this evening but it is not expected to last long and is expected to be light. Ultimately it should prove to not be an impact to this game. Greinke has a 7.15 ERA in his two road starts this season. He has allowed 7 hits and 3 walks in the 7 innings spanning his last two starts versus Philadelphia. As for Arrieta, he has allowed just 2 earned runs on only 6 hits in the 13 innings spanning his last two starts versus Arizona. The right-hander also has a streak of 10 straight scoreless innings at home for the Phillies. He had a rough first inning in his debut for the Phillies but, since then, Arrieta has given up NO runs on just 2 hits in his last 10 innings on the mound at Citizens Bank Park. Overall he has allowed just 2 earned runs in his last 16 and 2/3 earnings for the Phillies. Philadelphia is 4-0 the L4 times they entered a game off of a loss. Also, the Phils are still 9-2 at home even with yesterday's loss included. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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04-24-18 | Heat v. 76ers OVER 211 | Top | 91-104 | Loss | -103 | 22 h 59 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA Game #703 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Philadelphia 76ers vs Miami Heat @ 8:05 ET - The Game 4 win for the Sixers was the 3rd time in 4 games in this series that one of the teams attempted at least 94 shots from the field. However, the game did stay under but the point is that we're getting line value here with this total as a result. The way the pacing has gone in this series 3 of the 4 should have gone over but instead it is a 2-2 split. With Miami having their backs against the wall, down 3-1 in this series, I look for them to be especially aggressive on the offensive end in this one. They know the Sixers are going to "get theirs" in terms of points but the Heat have scored at least 102 in each game in this series and have, in fact, averaged 106.5 points per game. Considering the spread on this game is double digits and yet Miami should end up in the 102 to 107 range in points, this total is definitely a little low as you can see! In terms of technical support, the over is 10-4 in Miami's last 14 road games and 10-5 in 76ers games this season when they are playing with 2 days of rest between games. Fresh legs and plenty of run and gun as the Sixers want to end this at home while the Heat will be firing away to try to stay alive and send it back to Miami. 10* OVER the total in Philadelphia |
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04-23-18 | Rockets -5.5 v. Wolves | Top | 119-100 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #509 Monday 10* Top Play Houston Rockets (-) @ Minnesota Timberwolves @ 8:05 ET - The Rockets will be in bounce back mod here after getting destroyed in Game 3. Keep in mind, even though Houston won Game 1 it was far too close of a call and they responded in Game 2 and won by a margin of 20 points. The Rockets are 18-3 SU (15-6 ATS) versus Northwest Division opposition this season. Houston is also 17-6 SU when playing with revenge this season. That said, I also like my chances of a SU win equating to an ATS win as 11 of the Timberwolves last 13 losses have come by 8 or more points. Minnesota is also an ugly 18-34 ATS (including 9-16 ATS this season) when off of a game where they scored 115 or more points. Minnesota is also just 1-7 ATS the last 8 times they were off of a game where they shot 40% or better from three point land. The Wolves 15 of 27 shooting performance from beyond the arc certainly had a lot to do with their Game 3 win but they are not known as a 3 point shooting team and averaged only 8 per game so far this season. In other words, that 1-7 ATS stat makes perfect sense because Minny usually comes right back down to earth after a rare standout shooting performance like that. 10* HOUSTON |
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04-23-18 | A's v. Rangers OVER 9.5 | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #963 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Oakland A's @ 8:05 ET - The Rangers Matt Moore is 0-3 with an 8.76 ERA in his 3 career starts made at Globe Life Park in Arlington. Facing the A's is unlikely to help him as the Texas southpaw has only 1 win in his 5 career starts versus Oakland and he has compiled an ugly 7.07 ERA in those outings. The Athletics will have Trevor Cahill on the mound for this one. Over the past 3 seasons he is 2-8 with a 5.21 ERA in road games. Also, Cahill compiled a 4.89 ERA in night games the past 3 seasons. He has been a better pitcher at home and in day games. That said, a road outing at night at hitter-friendly Globe Life Park is not going to do him any favors. The line opened up at a 10 but dropped to a 9.5 in some spots already as some saw the 10 as being "too much" in this one. I certainly don't see it that way and am going contrarian and going with the over in this match-up. The over is 7-3 in the A's last 10 games as they've averaged scoring 7 runs per game during this solid long-term stretch. I won't be surprised to see this total stay at 10 in a lot of shops and then possibly even move up to a 10.5 later in the day. Note that the Rangers are 3-0 to the over this season in home games with a posted total of 10 or 10.5 runs. Look for that record to stay perfect on the year but I am happy to grab the 9.5 while we can. 10* OVER the total in Texas |
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04-23-18 | Capitals v. Blue Jackets +100 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NHL Game #20 Monday 10* Top Play Columbus Blue Jackets Money Line (+) vs Washington Capitals @ 7:35 ET - The Blue Jackets outplayed the Capitals in Game 5 but lost. It happens. However, that doesn't change the fact that we're now getting great line value with Columbus on their home ice and their backs against the wall. The Jackets won the first two games and yet now have lost three straight games. However, no one could truly argue that the Capitals are the better team in this match-up. In fact, Columbus was the better team in Game 5 and now they are on home ice and yet they're not even favored. This is the true definition of line value and a spot that is a perfect one to step up big. When leading in a playoff series the Capitals have lost 25 off 44 (-$14,600). Washington, when on the road and on an overall streak of 3 or more consecutive wins, have lost 4 of 6 this season! The Blue Jackets have won 22 of 35 home games with posted total of 5.5 goals this season and they'll get another one here after the bounces of the puck (and the calls) really went against them in Game 5 Saturday. 10* COLUMBUS |
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04-22-18 | Cavs v. Pacers OVER 203.5 | Top | 104-100 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #507 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Indiana Pacers vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 8:35 ET - With a drop down to a 203.5 this morning, this total is now down double digits from where it was earlier in this series. This is a classic case of the books having to over-react due to market perception forcing an over-correction. Yes all 3 games of this series have stayed under the total but let us not get carried away here! The Celtics scored 57 in the first half of Friday's game. The Pacers scored 52 points in the 2nd half of that Game 3 match-up. The Cavs also scored 58 in the first half of Game 2 while the Pacers scored 51 points in the 2nd half of that match-up. The key here is Cleveland is now desperate for a win as they are on the road and down 2 games to 1 and the Cavaliers best success in this series has come when they're pushing the pace. The Cavs have led by double digits at halftime in each of the past two games. Today I look for Cleveland to push hard for a full 48 minutes. While I do respect the Pacers defense this is still an Indiana team that allowed 104 points per game this season. Of course the Cavaliers struggles defensively were well-documented this season and they've allowed nearly 110 points per game on the season. There is simply exceptional value with the drop in this total because you know with the importance of this game, big difference between a 3-1 series and a 2-2, neither team is going to lie down late no matter the score. So a good tempo here with late fouling and big threes also a distinct possibility to add points. 10* OVER the total in Indiana |
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04-22-18 | Predators v. Avalanche +163 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NHL Game #76 Sunday 10* Top Play Colorado Avalanche Money Line (+) vs Nashville Predators @ 7:05 ET - The Avalanche have received an incredible boost from the play of Andrew Hammond between the pipes. He came on in relief of Jonathan Bernier in Game 4 and then got his first start in Game 5 and all Hammond has done is save 52 of 53 shots! Playoff teams are known for riding hot goalies and Colorado is certainly "feeling it" right now. That said, and with this game also at home, the Avs are in a great spot for a huge upset win at a great comeback price. Keep in mind, these teams have alternated wins and losses in the last 4 games and the only win by a multiple goal margin in the last 4 games was when Colorado dominated the Predators in Game 3 on home ice. The Avalanche are an incredible 17-6 on home ice in games with a posted total of 6 or more goals. Nashville has a losing record (13-14) long-term when leading in a playoff series and they are simply very over-priced here given that they are on the road, Hammond is red hot between the pipes, and the Avs are looking to stave off elimination in their own barn. 10* COLORADO |
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04-22-18 | Cubs v. Rockies OVER 10 | Top | 9-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #909 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Chicago Cubs @ 3:10 ET - Temperatures will warm into the mid-60s this afternoon in Denver and the air will be in drier than it was last night plus the warmer temperatures certainly will be nice for the hitters. I know that Jose Quintana blamed his struggles versus Atlanta on pitching in cold temperatures but remember he also struggled at Miami (no cold air there!) earlier this season. He has now had 1 good outing but been awful in the other two starts and I don't think an afternoon start at Coors Field is going to do him any favors. As for German Marquez, he is off of a fantastic starts in his most recent outing but that was on the road. At home this season he has an 8.21 ERA. Keep in mind, he finished up last season with a 5.25 ERA over his final 4 home starts and Coors Field is simply not an easy place to pitch. After the Cubs lineup produced only 2 runs yesterday look for them to have a breakout game today. Marquez walked 6 in less than 5 innings of work in his first home start this season. He then benefited from facing light-hitting San Diego in his next start but he is not so fortunate here. Chicago had averaged scoring 10.3 runs per game in their last 4 games prior to last night's dismal effort. Look for the Cubs to bounce back big and the over was 4-0 in Chicago's 4 games prior to yesterday and 4-1-1 in the Rockies last 6 prior to yesterday's 5-2 win. 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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04-21-18 | Cubs v. Rockies OVER 10 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Game #959 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Chicago Cubs @ 8:10 ET - After combining for 21 runs yesterday's game, don't be surprised if we see another wild one tonight. Temperatures in the upper 40s not bad for this time of year in Denver and the winds, though light, are also expected to be shifting around to the south or southeast which will be pushing balls to left field. Ton of extra base hits in yesterday's game and more of the same expected here. Yu Darvish will be making his first ever start at Colorado. In his most recent start he got frustrated by a balk call and then unraveled from there. Wait until he gets frustrated by pitching in conditions where his pitches just don't have the same movement they normally would. Look for Darvish to get frustrated here and struggle like many hurlers do in their first starts at Coors Field. The Rockies did see him (and hit him hard) in September and now they get a shot at him at home. Darvish has struggled in 2 of his 3 starts this season. Tyler Anderson gets the start for the Rockies here and the southpaw was hit hard in his lone start versus the Cubs in his career. Also, he is coming off of a start in which he walked 6 batters in 6 innings. Prior to that he benefited from facing the light-hitting Padres twice this season. Now he faces a powerful Chicago lineup coming off of a 16-run outburst yesterday and this gets ugly quick in my opinion. The Cubs have gone over in 4 straight games and the Rockies have just 1 under in their last 6 games. Look for Chicago's over to improve to 6-2 in night games this season. 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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04-21-18 | Rockets v. Wolves OVER 214 | Top | 105-121 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #721 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Timberwolves vs Houston Rockets @ 7:35 ET - Ladies and gentlemen, this total opened up at a 213 and is now as high as a 214.5 despite the fact that both games in this series have easily stayed under the total AND the Rockets are on an 11-2 run to the under. So what does that tell you? Some sharp money is on the over here folks. This is a contrarian play. Most will be enticed to the under but the over is the way to go. Yes, the Timberwolves are on a 5-1 run to the under also but, after struggling with their shot at Houston, look for them to shoot much better at home in Minnesota. Also, the Rockets are making just 29% of their three pointers so far in this series but that is not going to continue. Houston is too strong of a shooting team and they will hit their stride again. The Rockets actually hit 38 of 82 (46.3%) of their three pointers in their two games at Minnesota in the regular season and they'll get it rolling again tonight. The Wolves have averaged 114 points per game in their last 4 home games versus the Rockets and the over is a perfect 3-0 in the last 3 meetings there. The Timberwolves are 8-4 to the over this season when off of a loss by a double digit margin. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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04-21-18 | Devils v. Lightning OVER 6 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 48 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NHL Game #65 Saturday 10* OVER the total in Tampa Bay Lightning vs New Jersey Devils @ 3:05 ET - There were 3 goals scored very early in Game 4 and it easily could have been 5 and should have at least been 4 as one was taken off on a questionable offsides call bases on video review. Long story short, more goals will be scored in Game 5 after some craziness took the wind out of the sails of the teams early in Game 4 and then it settled into a tighter, lower-scoring game. I expect the high-scoring to resume today back in Tampa Bay where the Lightning have scored 5 goals in each game in this series! In fact the Bolts are averaging 5.3 goals per game their last 4 games on home ice. The Devils have been very scrappy throughout this series and I don't expect them to go away quietly. That said, they had averaged 3.3 goals per game in the first 3 games of this series before struggling in Game 4 and I look for a bounce back here. Each of these clubs is 9-4 to the over this season when playing with 2 days of rest between games. The over is 11-4 in New Jersey's last 15 games. The over is 30-14-2 in the Bolts last 46 games. 10* OVER the total in Tampa Bay |
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04-20-18 | Raptors v. Wizards OVER 218 | Top | 103-122 | Win | 102 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #713 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Wizards vs Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - There really is no reason to expect the high-scoring ways of this series to come to a stop just yet. The Wizards average nearly 4 points more at home compared to on the road while the Raptors average under 2 points less on the road compared to at home. Also, the Toronto defense does allow about 4 points more when on the road this season while the Washington defense shows an average only about 2 points better when at home compared to on the road. The Wizards simply are not known as a team that wins with defense. In fact, in their last 15 home wins they've allowed an average of 105.4 points per game. Again, they win with offense and this is a desperate Washington team in search of a win to get back into this series but they simply can not stop the Raptors. Toronto has scored an average of 116.3 points per game in their last 4 games versus the Wizards. The Raptors have shot the ball very well overall in their last 5 games and have averaged 114.6 points per game during this stretch. The Wizards are 6-2 to the over in their last 8 games. Toronto is a long-term 23-16 when playing with 2 days of rest between games. The Raptors also are 9-5 to the over this season when they are an underdog. Washington is 27-16 to the over when playing with 2 days of rest between games. Also, only 4 of 12 games have stayed under when the Wizards are off of a loss by a double digit margin. In other words, the Wizards respond to ugly defeats with offense not defense and that is what I expect to see again on Friday. 10* OVER the total in Washington |
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04-20-18 | Pirates v. Phillies OVER 8 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #901 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 7:05 ET - The Phillies and Pirates have hit very well this season with runners in scoring position and this is why they've fared as well as they have so far on the young season. That type of clutch hitting is also key to cashing overs and I love going contrarian in this match-up. The total has gone from an 8.5 to an 8 as of early Friday and the fact is that this should fly over. I know the Phillies shut out the Pirates yesterday but tonight they have Ben Lively going. Even though his last two starts were against two of the weakest hitting teams in MLB (Reds and Rays near dead last in slugging %), Lively has been hit at a .372 clip in his last two outings. Now he faces a Pirates team that hit him well when they faced him last season. As for Pittsburgh starter Ivan Nova, I know he has been throwing fairly well and has piled up some strikeouts in his last two starts but he also has allowed 4 homers while compiling a 5.21 ERA in his last 3 starts. Plus the Phillies got to him for 7 earned runs on 16 hits in just 13 and 1/3 innings last season. Look for Nova to struggle here as the Phils confidence is sky high thanks to a 10-3 run their last 13 games. The Phillies have averaged scoring 6.2 runs per game during this stretch. Just 3 unders in Pittsburgh's 10 road games this season and the Phillies have had just 7 unders the last 19 times they've been off of a shutout win. 10* OVER the total in Philadelphia |
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04-19-18 | Blazers v. Pelicans OVER 216 | Top | 102-119 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #525 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New Orleans Pelicans vs Portland Trail Blazers @ 9:05 ET - During the regular season an average game for the Blazers or the Pelicans sees about 42 free throw attempts. However, in the last 3 meetings between these teams, including the first two of this post-season, the teams have averaged a total of only 25 free throw attempts. This certainly has had an impact on each of those 3 meetings staying under the total and I look for it to change tonight. Down 0-2 in the series and having lost both games on their home floor, Portland needs to come out very aggressive and attack the basket. This leads to more trips to the free throw line. The fact is that the Blazers have averaged 98 field goal attempts in their last 3 games against the Pelicans so the pacing has certainly been there for an over. Tonight we'll finally see the pace correlate properly to a higher scoring game. New Orleans has shot the ball very well their last 7 games and that is why they've scored 111 points or more in 6 of those 7 games. Look for the Pelicans to stay hot here but the desperate Blazers will answer them bucket for bucket as this game goes on. The over is a long-term 81-42 in Pelicans home games and that includes 28-13 this season! More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in New Orleans |
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04-19-18 | Capitals v. Blue Jackets OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
Best Bet - Rickenbach NHL Game #3 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Columbus Blue Jackets vs Washington Capitals @ 7:35 ET - With each of the first three games of this series, calling for a money line winner in this game is damn near close to a roll of a dice. However, where I feel we're getting value here in Game 4 is with this total at a 5.5 across the board. Keep in mind, the first two games in this series averaged 8 goals per game and both went over the total. Even though Game 3 stayed under the total, it did so just barely and that also had a lot to do with the teams combining to go just 1 for 8 on the power play. The power plays had been hot coming into Tuesday's game and I expect the high-scoring trend we saw earlier in the series to quickly resume. Not only have all 3 games gone to OT but also this will be the 3rd game in 5 nights so we could see some tired legs on defense in this one. Eventually teams start to wear each other down and there tends to be more open ice to execute in. With all the hockey that has already been played in this series (all 3 games going to OT) I expect that to be the case tonight. Keep in mind, the over is 5-1 in Capitals last 6 games and 8-1 in Columbus' last 9 games. Also, the Blue Jackets are 12-3 to the over this season when playing with home loss revenge. The over is 28-15 this season in Washington's games versus teams with a winning record. 10* OVER the total in Columbus |
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04-19-18 | Blue Jays v. Yankees OVER 9 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #963 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 6:35 ET - It will be a chilly evening in the Bronx. Certainly the weather is not necessarily conducive to an over but the wind will be blowing out toward the right field corner and the earlier rains will have moved out of the area. What sets this one up so well is that the Blue Jays already faced CC Sabathia this season and the Yankees also already faced Aaron Sanchez as well. Though Toronto's Sanchez has some decent numbers on the season, he has been issuing too many walks and actually has issued more free passes than "punch-outs" via the strikeout in 2 of his 3 starts this year. Also, he gave up 4 earned runs in less than 6 innings of work versus the Yankees early this season. Additionally, in the last start Sanchez made at Yankee Stadium he allowed a pair of homers. As for Sabathia, he left his last start (nearly two weeks ago) due to hip soreness. He has given up 15 hits (including two homers) in less than 14 innings of work spanning his last 3 starts versus the Blue Jays. In his only home start this season the southpaw allowed 3 homers in just 4 innings of work. The over is a perfect 8-0 (one push) in the Yankees last 9 games. Also, the Blue Jays head to the Bronx with plenty of confidence at the plate after scoring 39 runs in their last 4 games. The over is a perfect 3-0 (one push) in Toronto's last 4 games. The Bronx Bombers are a perfect 7-0 to the over off of a loss this season and also 3-0 in home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. That's a combined 21-0 mark to the over! I'll take it! 10* OVER the total in New York Yankees |
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04-18-18 | Jazz +4.5 v. Thunder | Top | 102-95 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #519 Wednesday 10* Top Play Utah Jazz (+) @ Oklahoma City Thunder @ 8:05 ET - Paul George hit 8 of 11 three pointers in Game 1 for the Thunder. Many of those were contested. Sometimes guys go off in a game and that is what happened Sunday. Even with that ridiculous shooting performance by George in Game 1, Oklahoma City still only won the game by single digits. Look for this one to be either a Jazz upset or a loss by a single possession because Utah is going to shoot better than they did from three point land in Game 1. Odds favor that as well as the fact that George is certainly unlikely to again hit 73% of his threes. Coming into this series I felt the Jazz offer great value and I still feel that way despite the ATS loss in Game 1. Utah has allowed 99 points or less in 16 of their last 21 games. The Thunder have allowed an average of 109 points per game in their last 9 games. Despite the Sunday result, the Jazz are still 14-3 SU and 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games versus teams that average 106 points or more per game. Also, Oklahoma City is still just 6-11 SU (and 3-14 ATS!) in games against divisional opponents this season. 10* UTAH |
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04-18-18 | Lightning v. Devils OVER 6 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -118 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NHL Game #59 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New Jersey Devils vs Tampa Bay Lightning @ 7:35 ET - The Lightning are going to push it here. They're tired of getting outdone in the 3rd period by the Devils and they finally paid the ultimate price for it in Game 3 as they lost 5-2 by being outplayed (again) by New Jersey in the 3rd period. The solution for Tampa Bay? Score more goals early and this is a team that is loaded with firepower so they are fully capable of it. They will be relentless in this game tonight and I look for them to do a little more "dirty work" in front of goalie Cory Schneider and get some goals off of a deflections and screens in front of him. A few put-backs off rebounds...those types of goals. Schneider has looked good since he replaced Keith Kincaid but he certainly is not unbeatable. That said, the Bolts really push it in this game but you have to give credit to the Devils for their ability to battle back in games and that is what I expect here. The result will be plenty of goals because also we've seen the special teams lead to plenty of power play goals already in this series. With tensions rising higher with each game, and more and more animosity, it is just unavoidable that guys will end up in the penalty box and power plays will result. The over is 5-1 in the 6 meetings between these teams this season (including 3-0 in this playoff series). The over is on an 11-3 run in Devils games. The over is 14-6 when TB faces a team with a winning record and the over is 18-10 when the Bolts are playing with revenge. The over is also 13-6 when NJ is off of a win by a multiple goal margin. 10* OVER the total in New Jersey |
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04-18-18 | Phillies v. Braves OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #909 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 7:35 ET - I had this same play yesterday and it was unbelievable as the teams had stuff going on all night long but combined to ground into FIVE double plays plus left 21 men on base! Needless to say it was a game filled with wasted opportunities. Now on another great night for hitters at SunTrust Park, I expect these teams to make up for it with a slugfest. The air will be quite dry in Atlanta tonight and the wind will be blowing toward the left-field corner with warm temperatures too. Vincent Velasquez gets the start for the Phillies and he got crushed by the Braves in his first start this season as he gave up 7 runs (4 earned) in less than 3 innings of work. Brandon McCarthy gets the start for Atlanta and he has allowed 6 earned runs on 14 hits in just 10 and 1/3 innings spanning his last two starts versus the Phillies. Also, he faced Philadelphia in that same game that Velasquez pitched in and he was able to work out of some jams but he likely won't be so fortunate this time around. The over is 2-1 in each of these hurlers 3 starts this season. Also, yesterday was just the 2nd under the Braves have had in 8 home games this season. Look for tonight's game to resume the normal higher-scoring trend at SunTrust Park. 10* OVER the total in Atlanta |
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04-17-18 | Bucks +2.5 v. Celtics | Top | 106-120 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #707 Tuesday NBA 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 8:05 ET - Certainly I won't hesitate to come right back with the Bucks for Game 2 of this series after a true brutally bad beat on Milwaukee in Game 1. Undoubtedly the Bucks were the right side in Game 1 as we all saw. The game only went to OT because of a miracle long 3-pointer for the Bucks with a tenth of a second left on the clock. Of course everyone with a Bucks ticket had at least 3.5, many had 4, and some even had 4.5 to the plus side with Milwaukee. The fact that the Bucks outscored the Celtics by a dozen points in the final 3 quarters of that game says a lot about the adjustments there were able to make. I also like the fact that they barely lost Game 1 despite 10 more fouls than Boston and despite the fact that the Celtics shot above their season averages from the free throw line and from beyond the arc. Boston also had the added benefit of nobody totaling more than 4 fouls. The Bucks had two starters foul out and another starter ended up with 5 fouls. Those things effect players mentally. Look for staying out of foul trouble in Game 2 to result in an even better effort from the Bucks and, keep in mind, they pushed the Celtics to the brink in Game 1. If Boston had Gordon Hayward and Kyrie Irving on the floor this would be a different story but, without Irving particularly (I know Hayward was lost immediately this season), the fact is that the Celtics were very fortunate to win Game 1. They won't be so fortunate tonight against the hungry and determined Bucks. 10* MILWAUKEE |
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04-17-18 | Capitals v. Blue Jackets OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach NHL Game #51 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Columbus Blue Jackets vs Washington Capitals @ 7:35 ET - Don't look for anything to slow down in this series. Washington peppered Columbus goalie Sergei Bobrovsky with 58 shots in Game 2 but the Capitals are still down 2-0 in this series despite scoring 4 goals in that game. The fact is that the Caps have to keep pushing hard after losing both games on home ice in overtime. They will be relentless tonight and I don't think Bobrovsky is going to have the same "puck luck" he did in Game 2. Give him credit for a helluva game but the Capitals (7 goals already) will continue to find the back of the net tonight. The key to the value with the over here is not only that it is a 5.5 but also that the Blue Jackets are back on home ice where they've scored 4 or more goals in 7 of their last 10 games. They don't have to be passive here. With the added boost of confidence of winning both games on the road at Washington they can afford to be aggressive and they're also going to be looking to stay out of the penalty box. As a result, could they be a little too soft on defense? You bet. The Capitals are going to push hard here and the Blue Jackets only option will be able to get back into the game with attacking the offensive zone and peppering the Caps goalie. The over is 8-0 in the Blue Jackets last 8 games and 5-0 in Washington's last 5 games. Also, the Capitals are 17-5 to the over when they enter a game having played each of their 3 prior games on home ice. The over is a long-term 11-5 in Columbus first round playoff games. Those perfect trends above are a combined 13-0 / 100%! I'll take it. 10* OVER the total in Columbus |
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04-17-18 | Phillies v. Braves OVER 8 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -119 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #955 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 7:35 ET - This total opened up at a 9 and has now dropped to low as an 8 as of game day morning. Temperatures will be mild in Atlanta this evening with the wind blowing toward the left field corner. The wind not necessarily a big help but the temperatures certainly good with rather dry air too which helps the hitters. The biggest key here is that the Phillies Nick Pivetta looks great with his last two starts being dominant but both of those were at home and against very bad teams. In his first start this season he was on the road and faced this very same Braves team and I expect them to get to him even more in the rematch. Last season Pivetta was 4-7 with a 6.65 ERA on the road where he got hit at a .298 clip. Also, in night games last season the Phillies right-hander went 2-6 with a 7.78 ERA and got hit at a .309 clip. As for the Braves Mike Foltneywicz, he has given up 8 runs (7 earned) on 12 hits (including 3 homers) in his last 9 innings versus Philadelphia. None of Foltneywicz last 3 starts versus Phils have stayed under the total. As for Pivetta, only 1 of his 4 starts versus the Braves have resulted in an under. This season the Braves have had just 1 under in 7 home games and, keep in mind, the Phillies faced Foltynewicz already in that same start Pivetta pitched in. These lineups are very familiar with the starter their facing today! 10* OVER the total in Atlanta |
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04-16-18 | Heat v. 76ers -6.5 | Top | 113-103 | Loss | -101 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #702 Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Miami Heat @ 8:05 ET - While both teams shot exceptionally well from 3-point land in Game 1, that certainly is unlikely to continue in Game 2. So lets take a closer look at the stats that do matter. The Sixers had 17 more field goal attempts in the game. Why? Because they won the rebounding battle by 10 caroms, had 5 more steals which helped lead to a turnover edge of 7, and had 10 more points in the paint. The point is that Philadelphia did the things that win playoff basketball games and I don't see any reason for that not to continue in Game 2. The 76ers had 5 guys score at least 17 points, the Heat only had one big scorer as Olynyk had 26 points. Keep in mind, it also certainly doesn't hurt that Philly has won 17 straight games. Their confidence is sky high and this is huge for a young team. Also, about that "young" team, 4 of the Sixers 7 players who logged the most minutes in Game 1 are 30 or older. That's right, the majority of the core playing rotation in that first game was comprised of guys who are at least 30 and the 76ers top two scorers in the game, Belinelli and Redick are 32 and 33, respectively. This team is a little more balanced with veteran leadership than what casual followers realize. That said, I'll gladly take the Sixers again at home in Game 2 as they are laying a small number despite the fact they are on their own court and going for 18 wins in a row. I'll take it! Lay the points with the red hot Sixers! 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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04-16-18 | Lightning v. Devils OVER 6 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NHL Game #29 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New Jersey Devils vs Tampa Bay Lightning @ 7:35 ET - Look for another wild one here as the Devils should play even better on home ice and they've played some great hockey in stretches in this series. The problem for New Jersey is they can't keep the puck out of their own net as the Lightning just have so much firepower. Look for Tampa Bay, buoyed by the confidence of a 2-0 series lead, to continue to be on the attack in Game 3. This should lead to a back and forth true barnburner that ends up a 4-3 or 5-4 type game in my opinion. There is a reason that this is the only total out of all 4 games Monday that is higher than 5.5 goals. It is fully justified and we're going to continue to see plenty of scoring in this one. The over is 29-16 this season when Tampa Bay is off of a game where they scored 4 or more goals. Overall, the Lightning enter this game on a 29-13 run to the over dating back to early January. New Jersey is 14-8 to the over (including 7-4 to the over this season) when they enter a game having played each of their 3 prior games on the road. Also, the Devils are 17-9 to the over when they are off of a game in which they allowed 4 or more goals. Look for these trends to continue here. 10* OVER the total in New Jersey |
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04-16-18 | Phillies -125 v. Braves | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -125 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #905 Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) @ Atlanta Braves @ 7:35 ET - This is a rematch of the opening day match-up in which Aaron Nola and Julio Teheran squared off, also in Atlanta. The Phillies took a 5-0 lead to the bottom of the 5th inning. They lost the game 8-5. Much has changed since then and the Phillies are playing with a ton of confidence thanks to a 6-game winning streak. Also, Nola did outpitch Teheran that night and he certainly has been the much better pitcher than the Braves righty so far this season. Teheran has a 7.07 ERA and a 1.79 WHIP so far this season. Nola has a 1.96 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP on the season! Teheran has allowed 4 homers in the 8 innings spanning his two home starts this season. It will by chilly in Atlanta tonight but the wind will be blowing out and this certainly could be a factor here. As for Nola, he has allowed just 1 homer in his 18 and 1/3 innings of work this season. After a disheartening loss for Atlanta (blew a late huge lead and lost improbably to the Cubs Saturday) this is a tough start for the Braves. Also, prior to that game Atlanta had average scoring just 2.7 runs per game in their 6 previous contests. The Phillies are averaging 7.5 runs per game in their last 8 games. The Phillies are 7-2 in night games this season and the Braves are 2-5 in night games on the year. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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04-15-18 | Blue Jackets +140 v. Capitals | Top | 5-4 | Win | 140 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
NBC Sports Network Rout - Rickenbach NHL Game #23 Sunday 10* Top Play Columbus Blue Jackets Money Line (+) @ Washington Capitals @ 7:35 ET - Common thinking will have most bettors backing the Capitals in this one. Of course that is why we've seen the money line on Washington moving even higher for Game 2 since it first opened up. As long-time followers know, there is nothing common about my thinking when I analyze games. The reason, of course, that most people will back the Caps here is because they lost Game 1 on home ice and the common man's thinking is there is no way they can lose a 2nd game on home ice and fall into an 0-2 hole in the series. However, the reality is that there is tremendous value on the road dog side in a situation like this because they have absolutely no pressure. They already stole 1 game on the road and now have a chance to just go out and go for that dagger to the heart of taking 2 straight games on the road to open up the series. All the pressure is on the home team. They know they can ill afford to go down 0-2 in this series. That pressure has been exasperated by the fact that there has been a 2-day layoff between games 1 and 2 of this series. This was even more time for the Blue Jackets to become more relaxed and confident while also giving more time for extreme pressure (and nervousness) to build up for the home team down 0-1. The only other home team that lost Game 1 (Anaheim) in this post-season sure enough lost game 2 too last night. I expect a repeat of that here. Keep in mind, the Capitals aren't quite what they once were as they lost some key contributors heading into this season. They are a quality hockey club but so too is Columbus and the Blue Jackets are more of an up and comer! Anything can happen on any day as we all know but this is a case where the road dog is offering fantastic value for all the reasons noted above. The Caps lost 5 of 8 Sunday games this season and the Blue Jackets have won 15 of 24 this season when playing with 2 days of rest between games. 10* COLUMBUS |
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04-15-18 | Jazz +4.5 v. Thunder | Top | 108-116 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #513 Sunday 10* Top Play Utah Jazz (+) @ Oklahoma City Thunder @ 6:35 ET - A line that had been as low as a -3 on the Thunder is now all the way up to as high as a 4.5 in some spots as of Sunday morning. I like the value with the underdog Jazz. Oklahoma City was only 16-26 ATS in the regular season in games against teams with a winning record. Utah finished up the regular season on a 13-7 ATS run in games against teams with a winning record. The Thunder also were a horrific 2-14 ATS in games against divisional opponents this season. While Oklahoma City has the more prolific offensive production, I love defensive-minded dogs and certainly the Jazz are the better team on that end of the floor. Oftentimes good defense trumps offensive powerhouses and, that is especially true in crunch time like the playoffs or latter stages of the regular season. Sure enough, Utah is 14-2 SU (and 13-3 ATS) in their last 16 games against teams that average 106 or more points per game. The Jazz are 18-7 ATS in Sunday games including 6-1 ATS this season. Before a loss in their regular season finale, the Jazz were on a 17-3 SU run and the 3 losses were by 3, 4, and 5 points. Hence the value with the points in a game today where the road dog certainly has a great shot at the outright upset. The Thunder have covered just ONCE in their last SEVEN home games! 10* UTAH JAZZ |