Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-08-23 | Golden Knights v. Oilers -173 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -173 | 10 h 60 m | Show |
NHL Monday Edmonton Oilers Money Line -175 vs Vegas Golden Knights @ 8:40 ET - Long time followers know I do not like to lay big juice in the money line sports. However, in the playoffs it is a different story and I will make exceptions sometimes when the situation is right. That is absolutely the case here. The Oilers have a ton of momentum after that big win at Vegas in Game 2 and I look for them to carry it right into this home match. Keep in mind, the Oilers have been a scoring machine and the Golden Knights are now facing a much tougher test than they did in their first series against Winnipeg. The Jets just did not have the scoring punch to really test Vegas. This situation is entirely different! The Oilers should again pile up goals here and I just don't see the Golden Knights having enough to keep up on the road in this one. Keep in mind, Vegas has been held to just 1 goal in each of their two losses. The Oilers have scored an average of 3 goals in their 3 playoff losses and 2 of those defeats came in overtime. The hosts here are better than people even realize. EDMONTON -175 |
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05-08-23 | White Sox v. Royals OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-12 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
MLB Monday OVER 8.5 in Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:40 ET - The Royals and White Sox have two of the worst bullpens in MLB so far this season. Also, both clubs have been scoring more runs of late. Also, we get line value here because both Greinke and Cease are big-name pitchers. One of the keys here though is that Greinke, his last start notwithstanding, has struggled quite often this season. Also, Cease is currently struggling when you look at the numbers from his recent starts. Additionally, these are divisional foes and these lineups have quite a few guys with experience against these hurlers. I am going with action on pitchers because of the bullpens and the current trending of these lineups. Note that the Royals have averaged scoring 7 runs in their last 6 games. Before yesterday's 5-1 win over the A's, 5 of last 6 Kansas City games totaled at least 9 runs. The White Sox have won 5 of 7 games and have averaged 7 runs per game during this 7-game stretch. 7 of Chicago's last 10 games have totaled at least 9 runs. This one will too the way I see it. OVER 8.5 in Kansas City |
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05-08-23 | Southampton v. Nottingham Forest +105 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 105 | 5 h 26 m | Show |
Rotation #200038: English Premier League Monday Nottingham Forest +105 vs Southampton @ 3 ET - This is a key battle in the relegation zone and right now Nottingham Forest is certainly in better form plus they have the home pitch edge. Nottingham has been much better at home than on the road and, as for Southampton, they have been struggling whether home or away this season. Nottingham actually has a positive goal differential on their home pitch this season while Southampton has been outscored 29 to 13 in their road matches this season. While Southampton has lost 22 matches already this season, Nottingham has only 5 losses in their 17 home matches this season. Knowing they need the full 3 points to try to get some safety from the relegation zone, I also do not expect Nottingham to settle for a push here either. Southampton has not won a match since early March and here they visit a club that has fared well against lower-table clubs as a host this season. Nottingham Forest +105 |
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05-08-23 | Sepsi v. Steaua Bucharesti OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
Rotation #206861 Monday OVER 2.5 in FCSB vs Sepsi @ 2 ET - Raining in Bucharest today but I still like the over here and expect conditions to be okay with the FCSB field. FSCB is chasing Farul at the top of the play-off table and they just watched Farul put on a 7-2 thrashing of Rapid. I look for FCSB to be particularly relentless on their home pitch tonight as they look to replicate that performance. I am not saying they will do that but I do expect them to be aggressive at home here. Sepsi is at the bottom of the play-off table and playing quite loose as a result. Even though Sepsi has scored in 7 straight matches, they have also conceded in 5 of last 6. In those 7 matches, however, Sepsi has scored a solid 1.4 goals per match. Sepsi, however, in the 5 matches in which they conceded have allowed an average of 1.8 goals per match. FCSB is looking for a breakout type effort here and that is the type of match I am expecting with plenty of scoring. FCSB has seen 8 of last 14 matches total at least 3 goals and those matches have averaged about 8 goals. Their most recent home match was a 2-1 win over Farul and they are happy to be at home for just the 2nd time since mid-March. They will make the most of it and I sense and offensive explosion here. 10* OVER 2.5 in FCSB |
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05-08-23 | Everton v. Brighton & Hove Albion OVER 3 | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 38 m | Show |
Rotation #200033: English Premier League Monday OVER 3 in Brighton vs Everton @ 12:30 ET - Brighton needs points in the table as they have a tough closing schedule to the season. That said, they will want to leave no doubt here and will be relentless on the attack. Remember, before last week's 1-0 win over Man U, Brighton had scored 6 goals in a huge home win over Wolverhampton. This is a dangerous club that is averaging 2 goals per match when at home this season and now they take on a relegation threatened Everton club. Certainly Everton is going to bring an intense effort as a result but they can not stop anyone. Everton has had 3 of last 4 matches total at least 4 goals. Also, the the last two meetings between these clubs have each totaled 5 goals. A similar result here would not surprise me in the least. OVER 3 in Brighton |
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05-07-23 | Maple Leafs v. Panthers OVER 6.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -128 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
NHL Sunday OVER 6.5 in Florida Panthers vs Toronto Maple Leafs @ 6:40 ET - Each of the first two games in this series have stayed under the total but the first one was surprising and the second one was shocking. The first game was 4-2 with over 7 minutes to go in the game. Oftentimes you'll at least get an empty-netter in a game like that. The second game was 3-2 just ONE MINUTE into the SECOND period! So there were 5 goals in 21 minutes and then, miraculously, no goals the final 39 minutes of the game. For over players, look for the third time to be the charm after these surprising results in the first two. You know the Maple Leafs are going to dig deep here down 2-0 in this series but their strength is in the offensive zone rather than in the D-zone. Also, Panthers so dangerously high-scoring on home ice. That said, the way I see this playing out is Toronto putting up a great fight but Panthers answering them goal for goal. As a result, I feel it is anybody's game but I do feel the play here is the over. Back and forth high-scoring affair finally gets to 7 or more. Both these teams have plenty of guys that can bring it in the offensive zone. OVER 6.5 in Florida |
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05-07-23 | Nationals v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 | Top | 9-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
MLB Sunday OVER 9 in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals @ 4:10 ET - The Diamondbacks and Nationals combined for 15 runs last night. 14 of last 17 Arizona games have totaled at least 9 runs and I like the fact this total opened up at a 9.5 but dropped to a 9 now in most spots. Note that this match-up features two of the worst bullpens in the NL so far this season based on ERA. Though Washington has not scored all that well this season, they will take advantage of facing Ryne Nelson here. The right-hander has struggled in his last 3 starts with 15 earned runs allowed over 14 innings. Yes, one of the starts was at Coors Field but the young hurler's confidence has taken a little hit for sure and you know that the Nationals bring a little extra confidence to the plate today after scoring 7 last night. The Nats have a pitching concern of their own though here as well. Trevor Williams got destroyed when he pitched in this ballpark in his lone start here last season. Also, Williams enters this start off a strong home start but he got hammered in his most recent road start. Look for plenty of runs here as both bullpens help the cause as well. OVER 9 in Arizona |
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05-07-23 | Celtics v. 76ers +3 | Top | 115-116 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
NBA Sunday Philadelphia 76ers +3 vs Boston Celtics @ 3:30 ET - This is it for Philly for all intents and purposes. If they lose this game they are down 3 games to 1 and would have to win twice at Boston to win this series. Basically this game is about as must-win as it gets without truly being an elimination game. Now, of course, just because a team needs to win does not mean it will win. However, the motivation and hunger and desire and home court edge all are with Philadelphia in this one. Also, a nice angle supports this play as Philly enters this game off B2B losses after winning 5 straight games to open up the post-season. Note that you have to go all the way back to October to find the last time Philly entered a home game off consecutive losses and did not win the game. Indeed, from late October onward, the 76ers are a PERFECT 5-0 SU when they are at home and are entering the game on a losing streak of at least 2 games. Those 5 wins were by an average margin of 11 points per game and all 5 of them were by at least 8 points. However, the money line on this game is only in the +120 range and we can get as much as +3 with the spread currently so I am going to suggest grabbing the points just in case Philly falls just short here. However, I absolutely expect they are going to get another win here and improve to 6-0 SU in this situation! PHILADELPHIA +3 |
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05-07-23 | Hurricanes +124 v. Devils | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
NHL Sunday Carolina Hurricanes +124 @ New Jersey Devils @ 3:40 ET - Interesting stat about the Hurricanes here is that they are 10-2 last 12 times they have entered a game off a win in which they allowed 1 goal or less. What that tells you is that when Carolina starts to play their style of game and their goalie is in sync like this, they are very tough to beat. That said, the world will likely be lining up on New Jersey here and saying they can't lose at home but the reality is why can't they? The fact is that the Devils have had to use both goalies in both games so far and each allowed multiple goals in the Game 2 loss. This New Jersey team has confidence that is shaken while the Hurricanes are rolling along. Also, Carolina knows that winning this series quickly carries extra importance considering Panthers up 2-0 in the other series against the Leafs plus that series just shifted south to Florida. That is not to say New Jersey and Toronto can't make comebacks but the point is that you won't see the Hurricanes taking their foot off the gas here. Right now the Canes are the better team all over the ice plus in goal which is so critical. CAROLINA +124 |
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05-07-23 | CS U Craiova v. CFR Cluj OVER 2.25 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -52 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
Rotation #206849: Romania Liga 1 Sunday OVER 2 goals -140 in CFR Cluj vs Universitatea Craiova @ 2 ET - The value of an over 2 is a big one here. Yes we lay a little extra juice for that but consider the facts entering this key match in the play-off stage of the season. Universitatea Craiova has both scored and conceded in 7 straight matches! Those matches have averaged 3 goals apiece. Also, each of last 5 meetings between these clubs have totaled at least 2 goals and these matches have averaged 3 goals apiece. Additionally, CFR Cluj is off a high-scoring 3-1 road loss. Prior to this, in looking at CFR Cluj matches in Liga 1 action, they have seen straight matches as a host total at least 2 goals and these matches have averaged totaling 3.3 goals apiece. OVER 2 goals -140 in CFR Cluj |
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05-07-23 | Manchester United v. West Ham United OVER 2.75 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -119 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
Rotation #200025: English Premier League Sunday OVER 2.5 or 3 in West Ham United vs Manchester United @ 2 ET - Both clubs off negative results and this should bring out the best in each of them here as this is a key match for each. Man U is trying to retain a top four spot in the league while West Ham is trying to avoid the relegation zone which they have now been slipping toward. Man U is allowing about 2 goals per match on the road this season while West Ham is conceding about 1.5 goals per match on this season. I like the fact both clubs pushing hard for the full 3 points in the table and both clubs also likely to score given those numbers above. I am looking for at least a 2-1 final as West Ham also gets a boost with the return of some players who had been ill and missed the match with Man City. Also, it looks like Man U will get a boost with the return of teen phenom Alejandro Garnacho. Man U won the last meeting between these clubs 3 to 1. West Ham has seen each of last 6 matches across all competitions total at least 3 goals and these have averaged 4.3 goals apiece. More of the same here. OVER 2.5 or 3 in West Ham United |
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05-07-23 | Arsenal v. Newcastle United OVER 3 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 27 m | Show |
Rotation #200021: English Premier League Sunday OVER 2.5 or 3 in Newcastle United vs Arsenal @ 11:30 AM ET - Newcastle is scoring an average of 2 goals per match at home this season. Arsenal is scoring an average of 2 goals per match on the road this season. A 2-2 final actually would not surprise in the least here. Both clubs have not been the defensive forces they were earlier this season. Arsenal did get their attack going on offense again in the 3-1 win over Chelsea. As for Newcastle, they have continued to roll and can take advantage of an Arsenal backline that has been impacted by injuries as the season has gone on. The fact remains though, the Newcastle backline has not been what it once was either. Look for a wide open affair with goals here as both clubs are confident right now in their attacks. Both clubs have been consistently scoring and conceding for many weeks now. Newcastle's last 9 matches have averaged 4 goals and only 1 totaled less than 3 goals. Arsenal, similarly, has seen last 15 matches average 4 goals and only 2 of the 15 totaled less than 3 goals. OVER 2.5 or 3 in Newcastle United |
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05-06-23 | Warriors +135 v. Lakers | Top | 97-127 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
NBA Saturday Golden State Warriors Money Line +135 @ Los Angeles Lakers @ 8:30 ET - The Warriors shot extremely well in Game Two and they won't shoot that well again here. However, they also won that game by 27 points and we don't need a big win, we just need any win here. I am not taking the points as we will not need them. There is a reason that the Warriors are such a small road dog here even though they had such a rotten season on the road. Keep in mind, it is now playoff time and, when the chips were down, they did what they had to do and they beat the Kings not once but TWICE on the road. So here they are looking to make it 3 straight road wins but public bettors are going to be all over the Lakers laying a short number at home. I smell a fishy line here and I love Golden State in this spot. Keep in mind the Warriors also shot well in Game 1 against the Lakers too. So Game 2 might have been excessive but it was not necessarily a fluke. They Warriors are hot right now and playing with confidence as they also have won B2B road games. The only reason they lost Game 1 was because they got outscored by 20 points at the free throw line. So they should be up 2-0 in this series. Instead it is tied 1-1 but, after tonight, they'll have that series lead they wanted. GOLDEN STATE +135 |
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05-06-23 | A's v. Royals OVER 10 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
MLB Saturday OVER 10 in Kansas City Royals vs Oakland Athletics @ 7:10 ET - As I mentioned in yesterday's write-up (ended up a 12-8 winner), Oakland entered this series off a crazy 5 to 3 loss versus Seattle. It was crazy for totals players in the sense that the total was an 8.5 and it was already 5-3 in the top of the 4th and yet not another run was scored and it ended up that way...a 5-3 final. Now the Athletics in this series at KC and it will be favorable weather conditions for an over and also this match-up features two of the worst bullpens in the league. So I am going over here with action on the pitchers again but the expected starters also should help our cause for sure. The Athletics Ken Waldichuk is winless in his 6 starts this season and has a 7.26 ERA. The Royals Brady Singer has allowed 5 or more earned runs in 4 of his last 5 starts! He has an 8.49 ERA this season and Oakland should make him pay as they have been hitting better on the road than at home. The Athletics have averaged scoring 6.3 runs per game last 11 road games! The Athletics have given up an average of nearly 8 runs per game this season though! KC entered this series off a 13-10 loss and then got rocked 12-8 yesterday! Royals have now scored an average of 6 runs per game last 7 games. Problem for KC is just like the Athletics - too many runs allowed - as Royals have allowed about 6 runs per game on the season. This is a big total on this game but absolutely the big number is justified! OVER 10 in Kansas City |
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05-06-23 | Oilers -118 v. Golden Knights | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
NHL Saturday Edmonton Oilers Money Line -120 @ Vegas Golden Knights @ 7:10 ET - The Knights have won 5 straight games since losing game one in round one to the Jets. Vegas is so hot and yet they are home underdog here. Hmmm. Exactly! Don't let this line fool you. This is a very strong Oilers team that is also tougher than they use to be. They won the hits battle in Game One of this series. Also, the first round against the Kings they showed more backbone and resiliency than past Oilers teams. Really feel this is a much different Edmonton team than we've seen before and they will again battle back off a loss. The Oilers are 6-0 the last 6 times they have entered a game off a loss. This Edmonton team has not lost B2B games since February! We are now in May as you know. They have been great off a loss and take that run to 7-0 as they just will not be denied here. EDMONTON -120 |
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05-06-23 | Knicks +160 v. Heat | Top | 86-105 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
NBA Saturday New York Knicks Money Line +150 @ Miami Heat @ 3:30 ET - The Knicks are dominating the rebounding battle so far in this series. The series is tied 1-1 but New York would already be up 2-0 if they had just shot better in Game 1. In the first game of this series the Knicks made just 60% from the free throw line and 20% from 3-point land and that was the difference in the game. Miami won that game by 7 but they outscored them by 11 from free throw line and 18 from three point line and that is 29 point variance right there. I like fading the masses and you know folks are going to be lined up on the Heat here because they are off a loss and now back on their home floor. NEW YORK KNICKS +150 |
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05-06-23 | Rapid Bucuresti v. Farul Constanta 1920 OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
Rotation #206845: Romania Liga 1 Saturday OVER 2.5 in Farul vs Rapid @ 2:30 ET - Farul is a big money line favorite here and favored by -1 on the goal line. Taking this info and Farul's long-term domination as a host, I am projecting at least a 2-1 final here. Rapid should make the net ripple at least once as they have averaged scoring 1.5 goals last 26 matches. Farul has averaged scoring 2.4 goals per match in their last 15 matches. One could argue, based on the above, that this should get to 4 goals so certainly expecting 3 is not asking too much. This should be an entertaining affair with a lot of scoring opportunities for each club. OVER 2.5 in Farul |
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05-06-23 | Brentford v. Liverpool OVER 3 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -116 | 6 h 14 m | Show |
Rotation #200017: English Premier League Saturday OVER 3 in Liverpool vs Brentford @ 12:30 ET - Liverpool off a tight 1-0 win versus Fulham last week but low-scoring matches have been the exception rather than the norm for the Reds of late overall and all season long as a host. Overall, Liverpool's last 5 matches before that one had averaged 5 goals apiece. Also, the Reds had averaged scoring 3 goals per match last 7 at home heading into that one. Brentford has scored an average of 1.4 goals per match last 14 matches. Liverpool huge favorite here for a reason of course and yet you can see why the Bees can be expected to make the net ripple as well in this one. The last 3 meetings between these clubs have all totaled at least 3 goals and have averaged 4 goals apiece. Look for at least 4 in this one! OVER 3 in Liverpool |
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05-06-23 | Leeds United v. Manchester City OVER 3.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -111 | 3 h 5 m | Show |
Rotation #200013: English Premier League Saturday OVER 3.5 in Manchester City vs Leeds United @ 10 AM ET - This one will get ugly for Leeds but of course that is why City is favored by 2 to 2.5 goals on the goal line. I feel the best way to play this one is the over. Leeds might get a bit of a new manager bounce after the change at the top and Allardyce being brought in. However, the 68-year old manager did himself no favors whatsoever in comparing himself in the exact same category as managers like Klopp, Arteta and Guardiola! Now he faces Guardiola and the best team in the league. You don't think Guardiola is aware of the comments? You don't think he will put a whipping on the manager that thinks he is just as good as he is when he has no business making such a comment? Even at the risk of allowing some goals, City (who is so strong at home by the way) is going to be aggressive on the attack in this match. They will be relentless and I expect plenty of scoring as a result! OVER 3.5 in Manchester City |
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05-05-23 | Devils v. Hurricanes -110 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
NHL Friday Carolina Hurricanes Money Line -110 vs New Jersey Devils @ 8:10 ET - The stats don't do it justice. The Hurricanes really dominated the Devils in Game 1 if you missed seeing it. I just do not see this changing for New Jersey on the road again for Game 2. The Canes are particularly tough at home and they are so strong and just do not give up many quality chances. Carolina could have had even more goals in Game 1 and, even without those close calls, they still dominated the game 4 to 1 before the icing on the cake with an empty netter to lead to the 5 to 1 finish. This is not going to change quickly for the Devils as they are unsettled in goal between Schmid and Vanecek. The Hurricanes are rolling strong with Andersen in between the pipes and they looked stronger in all facets of the game in the victory on Wednesday. More of the same here. Bargain price at home on Carolina because they are still without a couple of strong players. Even without those guys, they are so strong. The Hurricanes proved that again in that Game 1 win. CAROLINA -110 |
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05-05-23 | A's v. Royals OVER 9.5 | Top | 12-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
MLB Friday OVER 9.5 in Kansas City Royals vs Oakland Athletics @ 8:10 ET - Oakland off a crazy 5 to 3 loss versus Seattle. It was crazy for totals players in the sense that the total was an 8.5 and it was already 5-3 in the top of the 4th and yet not another run was scored and it ended up that way...a 5-3 final. Now the A's are at KC and it will be favorable weather conditions for an over and also this match-up features two of the worst bullpens in the league. So I am going over here with action on the pitchers but the expected starters also should help our cause for sure. The Athletics Kyle Muller has been rocked in both his road starts this season. The Royals Brad Keller has strong numbers this season in a lot of categories but he has had trouble with his command and has 24 walks in 30 innings. Oakland should make him pay as they have been hitting better on the road than at home. The A's have averaged scoring 5.7 runs per game last 10 road games! The Athletics have given up an average of nearly 8 runs per game this season though! KC enters this one off a 13-10 loss yesterday! Royals have now scored an average of 6 runs per game last 6 games. Problem for KC is just like the A's - too many runs allowed - as Royals have allowed about 6 runs per game on the season. OVER 9.5 in Kansas City |
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05-05-23 | Celtics v. 76ers +115 | Top | 114-102 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
NBA Friday Philadelphia 76ers Money Line +120 vs Boston Celtics @ 7:30 ET - Philadelphia is 8-1 SU the last 9 times they have been at home and coming off a loss. They did not just lose Game 2 either. The 76ers got absolutely thrashed in Game 2. The Sixers will respond huge here as that is their first loss of the post-season and it was ugly. The Celtics are just 10-10 SU in last 20 road games. We could get up to 2.5 points here though 2 seems to be the dominant number and I don't think we'll need any points. I am grabbing the plus money return on the money line. Look for Philly to improve to 9-1 (90%) SU the last 10 times they have entered a home game off a loss. PHILADELPHIA +120 |
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05-05-23 | Schalke 04 v. Mainz OVER 2.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
Rotation #202581: German Bundesliga Friday OVER 2.5 -135 in Mainz vs Schalke @ 2:30 ET - Mainz is off a frustrating 3-0 loss and I am sure they are going to be relentless on the attack here at home as a result. However, Schalke is trying to avoid relegation. They need all the points they can get. They can not just sit back and hope for a win. They need goals. Schalke has struggled to score goals on the road all season long and I am well aware of that. However, the key here is the desperate situation and the fact that Schalke has some momentum from scoring 7 goals in last 3 matches and picking up a couple of home wins. As for Mainz, they are still alive for a top 6 spot despite last week's disappointment and, prior to that loss, had averaged scoring 2.2 goals last 4 matches. Also, in matches on their home pitch, Mainz has averaged 2.3 goals scored in last 6 matches. Schalke has allowed a ton of scoring all season long and they are in trouble here but must put up a fight. We should see the visitors make the net ripple at least once but Mainz could also get this total all by themselves given the situation. OVER 2.5 -135 in Mainz |
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05-05-23 | Petrolul 52 v. Chindia Targoviste OVER 2 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
Rotation #206837: Romania Liga 1 Friday OVER 2 -115 in Chindia Targoviste vs Petrolul 52 @ 1:30 ET - Chindia has no draws in the 6 matches in the play-out stage and Petrolul has just one draw in their 6 matches and a solid 4-1-1 record that has them tied for 1st in the play-out standings. Chindia is battling to stay safe from relegation. Petrolul played home matches in this venue too so, even though Chindia is the host here, it still feels like home for the visitors too. The point about the lack of draws above is that if we expect each club to score and we know odds have been just 1 out of 12 for a draw for these clubs combined in the play-out stage, you have strong odds on at least a 2-1 final here. We get extra value too because this total is posted at a 2 in the markets. Strong play for me here as a result. Chindia has scored at least 1 goals in 6 of last 7 matches as a host and has averaged scoring 1.5 goals in those 6 matches. Chindia has allowed at least 1 goal in 7 of last 8 matches. The two matches between these clubs this season each totaled at least 3 goals and those 2 averaged 4 goals. Petrolul has scored at least 1 goal in 6 of last 7 matches and averaged scoring 1.3 goals in those 6 matches. More of the same here as we get yet another over between these two nearby foes. OVER 2 -115 in Chindia Targoviste |
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05-04-23 | Seattle Kraken v. Stars -1.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 140 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
NHL Thursday Dallas Stars Puck Line -1.5 +140 vs Seattle Kraken @ 9:40 ET - I like the way the Stars responded down 4-2 after one period at home. They still ended up losing that game in overtime but this Dallas team showed how they are capable of playing against Seattle and did not allow any goals after the first period debacle. The Stars know they can afford to go down 2-1 in this series and they had been so strong defensively and in goal in their recent wins over the Wild to close out that series with 3 straight wins. The Kraken have been a big surprise but I just can't see them winning both these games at Dallas. That said, the Stars are certainly justified as a huge money line favorite here but we turn to the puck line for the value here. I am grabbing the +140 with the knowledge that most of the Kraken losses of late have been by big margins and same goes for most of the Stars recent wins. DALLAS -1.5 +140 |
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05-04-23 | Lakers v. Warriors OVER 227 | Top | 100-127 | Push | 0 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
NBA Thursday OVER 227 in Golden State Warriors vs Los Angeles Lakers @ 9 ET - The Game One match-up went over the total despite having only 45 points scored in the 4th quarter. The Game One match-up went over the total despite Warriors scoring only 5 points from the free throw line. Remember, they are the home team and should get a few more calls here than that unusual result at home in the loss. Game One went over the total despite the Lakers hitting only 6 of 25 from three point land. So, the point is, we should see this one get into at least the 230s when you consider numbers like those. I am sure the Warriors are going to bounce back after that home loss and Curry should have a huge game. Also, I am sure that the Lakers are going to continue to dominate in terms of getting a lot of inside scoring. I feel each team has confidence in a strategy on offense that their opponent simply can not stop! OVER 227 in Golden State |
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05-04-23 | Panthers v. Maple Leafs OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -130 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
NHL Thursday OVER 6.5 in Toronto Maple Leafs vs Florida Panthers @ 7 ET - Great value here as game one stayed under the total despite being 3-2 after 2 periods and also being 4-2 with over 7 minutes left. Keep in mind all 6 goals were scored 5 on 5 as neither team scored a power play goals and there were no shorties in the game. So all of that plus no late scoring or empty netter and you can see why I love the value here with this one. We get a total of 6.5 again in this one and I am expecting plenty of scoring as the Maple Leafs and Panthers, odds suggest, will get some late scoring here if we need it. Also, odds suggest we would get some special teams scoring too. Excellent value spot here. OVER 6.5 in Toronto |
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05-04-23 | Braves v. Marlins OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 12 m | Show |
MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves @ 4:10 ET - Yesterday's game totaled 20 runs. No matter who starts today I am looking for more big hitting in this one. The Braves have averaged 7.5 runs scored in their last 8 games that were not rain-shortened - the other game was a 4-0 win in just 5 innings. The Marlins 7 of last 10 games have totaled at least 9 runs. Miami has scored at least 4 runs in 6 of last 8 games and you know the Braves should get to 4 as well here when you consider the way they have been playing. That said, we should see at least a 5-4 final here. The Marlins have allowed 5.8 runs last 10 games. As for the expected starters here, the Braves Dylan Dodd has very little experience above the AA level of the minors and he got rocked in his most recent MLB outing. Miami's Jesus Luzardo is not as dominant this season and also has regressed over his last 4 starts after he did have a couple strong ones to start the season. So we have nice value here with this over at a manageable total and considering all of the above. 10* OVER 8.5 in Miami |
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05-04-23 | Manchester United v. Brighton & Hove Albion OVER 3 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -120 | 4 h 23 m | Show |
Rotation #200177: English Premier League Thursday OVER 3 -120 in Brighton & Hove vs Manchester United @ 3 ET - These clubs just played out to a scoreless draw in the English FA Cup which was decided on penalty kicks. Even off that 0-0 match this total is still posted at 3 goals. Why do you think that is? Indeed you can expect plenty of scoring here as 3 of their last 4 meetings before that totaled at 3 goals. Also, Brighton enters this one off a 6-0 win and their last 6 matches have averaged 4 goals apiece and only one totaled less than 3 goals. Manchester United has averaged 1.6 goals scored per match last 5 matches in league action. On the season they have allowed an average of 2 goals per match in their road matches and Brighton has scored an average of 2 goals per match in their matches as a host in league action. So consider all that and then consider that Brighton is the favorite in this one. It is set up to be at least a 2-1 final the way I see it but I am expecting at least 4 goals as both clubs pushing very hard here given the current situation in the table. They want those full 3 points and so often you see much different results when clubs just meet after a recent match. So after that 0-0 battle watch this one go crazy. OVER 3 -120 in Brighton & Hove |
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05-04-23 | Sheffield United v. Huddersfield Town OVER 2.25 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 43 m | Show |
Rotation #200281: English League Championship Thursday OVER 2 -135 in Huddersfield Town vs Sheffield United @ 2:45 ET - Huddersfield Town has scored an average of 1.6 goals last 5 matches. They need at least a draw here to lock up being safe from the relegation zone. This is a rivalry match however. Sheffield United, though already having locked up promotion to Premier League, has been playing very well and will be playing loose here with no pressure. I expect goals here as these are nearby rivals and Sheffield has been going strong and has averaged scoring 2.8 goals in last 4 matches in league action. Looking for at least a 2-1 final here but the fact that the hosts would benefit from a draw means the value of an over 2 is a good one since 1-1, in theory, is a possibility. However, based on how the visitors can play wide open here and force the hosts to score, I am expecting plenty of goals in this one. OVER 2 in Huddersfield Town |
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05-03-23 | Oilers -114 v. Golden Knights | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -114 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
NHL Wednesday Edmonton Oilers Money Line -115 @ Vegas Golden Knights @ 9:40 ET - The Golden Knights just won 4 straight games over the Jets and allowed 2 or less goals in 3 of the 4 wins. They are known as the better defensive team. They are on home ice here and they won the division that the Oilers hail from as well. Edmonton comes into this one as the 2nd place team and having allowed 3.7 goals per game in last 3 games. Yet Vegas is the underdog here. This is classic situation and I love it. All of the above would point to the Golden Knights being a moderately priced favorite here but they are not. In typical contrarian fashion, I am on the Oilers here! Keep in mind, Edmonton's only two losses in the series with LA came in overtime. Edmonton absolutely looked like the much better team throughout that series. The Oilers are so explosive on offense and so dangerous on special teams. Also, their defense and netminding was better than past post-seasons as they looked good against the Kings. They carry momentum from that right into this playoff series and I look for Game 1 to go to the road team here. EDMONTON -115 |
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05-03-23 | Brewers v. Rockies OVER 12 | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday OVER 12 in Colorado Rockies vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 8:40 ET - Good weather for an over in this one. Mild temperatures as high temperatures expected near 80 degrees in Denver today. Kyle Freeland got off to a solid start this season but has struggled in his last 3 starts and also has allowed 7 homers in his last 4 starts. Eric Lauer gets the starts for the Brewers here and he has struggled at home and actually been solid on the road this season but truly doubt that he will find Coors Field to his liking. I like this play with action on the pitchers as I like the fact the teams combined to go just 1 of 12 with runners in scoring position yesterday. That game finished 3-2 and is helping to give us some line value here as it is keeping the line a little low. The reality is that each team has a good shot of getting to 6 runs here and, with a total of 12 posted on this, we would certainly be in good shape if we end with a 7-6 type affair. Prior to yesterday's low-scoring game, 9 of the last 12 games played here had totaled at least 13 runs. More of the same expected here. OVER 12 in Colorado |
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05-03-23 | 76ers +10 v. Celtics | Top | 87-121 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
NBA Wednesday Philadelphia 76ers +10 @ Boston Celtics @ 8 ET - When I played Philly in Game One I definitely did not expect them to win outright. However, now that they did this really has everyone lining up on Boston here. In the traditional zig-zag theory of handicapping, when the markets zig I like to zag. So, the point is, this is a bit of a contrarian play but I am confident the 76ers will stay within this inflated number here. The Celtics have not been the same team defensively recently as evident in the Hawks series. Also, as mentioned in my Game One write-up: the 76ers are without Embiid most likely in Game 2 of this series. However, they did play well without him this season. Also, getting double digits is a lot of points when you are a team as strong as Philadelphia is. The Sixers also still have a big rest edge here as they quickly dispatched of the Nets. Remember that also including winning the clinching Game 4 at Brooklyn and without Embiid. The Celtics, on the other hand, had to fight hard to get past Atlanta. The Hawks were scrappy with Boston in the first round. I am not saying Philly wins this outright of course. But I am saying they have enough edges to keep this margin single digits throughout the match-up. This should be quite a battle as the Sixers are better than people realize even when Embiid is not on the floor. So I am sure Harden will not have such a big game in this one like he did in Game One but others are certainly capable of huge performances too. This team about much more than just Embiid. Also, the Celtics never led Game One by more than 12 points. Just so much value with the big points here the way I see it. 10* PHILADELPHIA +10 |
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05-03-23 | Devils v. Hurricanes -115 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
NHL Wednesday Carolina Hurricanes -115 vs New Jersey Devils @ 7:10 ET - This is going to be a great series I have a feeling. But the Game 1 edge is too strong for me to ignore. Carolina has been resting up for this one while the Devils were in an absolute war with the Rangers. Here is what is most interesting about that the way I see it. The Devils made a goalie switch to Akira Schmid and he was fantastic. However, he really has not played much the past two seasons. Now, after completely shocking most all NHL experts with his performance in Round One, there could be a tough into to Round Two. It is almost like one of those "Did I really just do that" moments and then you quickly come back down to earth. Remember this is an entirely different match-up and now the Devils are finally having to leave the NYC area and they are facing a rested Hurricanes team. This sets up to be a tough match-up, at least in Game One, for Schmid and New Jersey the way I see it. CAROLINA -115 |
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05-03-23 | Fulham v. Liverpool OVER 3.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
Rotation #200169 Wednesday OVER 3.5 +115 in Liverpool vs Fulham @ 3 ET - Liverpool, based on the goal-line for this match is expected to win this one by at least a 2-goal margin. Fulham, based on Liverpool's recent trending certainly should be expected to allow at least 1 goal. I am looking for at least a 3-1 final when I look at this match. The Reds have scored 43 times in 16 home matches this season and only Arsenal and Manchester City have scored more as a host. That is pretty good company as those are the #1 and #2 clubs in the league this season. Liverpool had one scoreless draw versus Chelsea in the last 7 matches but their other 6 matches averaged 5 goals apiece! Fulham played out to a 2-2 draw the last time these clubs played. Fulham has scored 19 goals in last 14 matches so they can score here. They just will not be able to score a surging Reds club that won 4-3 last week. Another wild one likely here. OVER 3.5 +115 in Liverpool |
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05-03-23 | West Ham United v. Manchester City OVER 3.5 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 6 m | Show |
Rotation #200173 Wednesday OVER 3 -135 or 3.5 +125 in Manchester City vs West Ham United @ 3 ET - There is even some over 3 available at this one at higher juice. I would recommend over 3 as the top choice and then over 3.5 as a great second option since it has a big plus money. Manchester City actually off a lower-scoring match by their standards as they won only 2-1 last week. Look for them to make up for that here with goals aplenty on their home pitch. Remember they are averaging 3.4 goals per match this season when a host. As for West Ham, they do score an average of 1 goal per match on the road and City has not shown a penchant for clean sheets of late so look for the visitors to make the net ripple here. I am forecasting a 3-1 type match though we could see much more. Manchester City has actually averaged 4.3 goals scored in their last 7 as a host. West Ham has hit a high-scoring trend too with last 5 matches across all competitions totaling an average of 4.6 goals apiece. City also well aware that Arsenal jumped them in the table yesterday. Even if City lost this they still have a game in hand over Arsenal but they should leave no doubt at home here and will push for plenty of scoring to put this one away early. OVER 3 -135 or OVER 3.5 +125 in Manchester City |
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05-02-23 | Phillies +140 v. Dodgers | Top | 1-13 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday Philadelphia Phillies +140 @ Los Angeles Dodgers @ 10:10 ET - The Phillies and Dodgers bullpens are about equal in team ERA this season but it has been a big surprise how poorly the LA bullpen has been so far this season. The Phillies bullpen was actually down huge early this season but had been coming on very strong of late before yesterday's debacle. That debacle is one of the keys here because Philly actually had the worst loss of anyone yesterday. I like grabbing good teams off embarrassing losses. Lets not forget these are the defending NL champs. Even without Hoskins the Phillies have still been coming on strong. Also, now they get Bryce Harper tonight. He won't be in the field (though likely at first base in the near future) but he will be the DH tonight. This makes the Phillies lineup extra dangerous tonight and they'll be in bounceback mode after last night's 13 to 4 loss. Action on pitchers here but I will mention the expected starters are Matt Strahm and Julio Urias. Strahm has been superb this season with a 2.31 ERA and holding hitters to a .148 batting average. He has struck out 32 in 23 innings. Conversely, Urias has allowed at least 5 earned runs in B2B starts so he enters this one in poor current form. PHILADELPHIA +140 |
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05-02-23 | Seattle Kraken v. Stars -170 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -170 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
NHL Tuesday Dallas Stars -175 vs Seattle Kraken @ 9:40 ET - Normally I do not lay big prices and long-time followers know this. I play mostly totals or underdogs or small favorites. Even moderately priced favorites are rare for me. But I will venture into higher price ranges in the post-season when the situation warrants and that is the case here. Seattle is off that huge upset win over the defending champion Avalanche and that was a hard-fought 7-game series. The Stars have been waiting for the winner of this series and so Dallas has the rest edge plus now gets home ice edge here too since Seattle advanced rather than Colorado. This all sets up perfectly for the Stars to get a big Game One win. The Stars, once they got shifted into playoff mode, have been superb! Down 2-1 in the series to Minnesota, they then rattled off 3 straight wins and by a combined score of 11 to 3. Seattle wrapped up their series with a hard-fought 2-1 win over the Avs but allowed 3.5 goals per game in 4 games before that. You can see whey I am looking for a solid home win given the situational edges and home ice and the goaltending edge and overall edge in defensive play. DALLAS -175 |
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05-02-23 | Heat +6.5 v. Knicks | Top | 105-111 | Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
NBA Tuesday Miami Heat +6.5 @ New York Knicks @ 7:30 ET - This is too many points the way I see it. The Heat have Jimmy Butler listed as questionable for this one but I see no way he will not play here. Also, the Knicks do have Julius Randle and Jalen Brunson both listed as questionable on their report. It is not like New York is 100 percent healthy. As for Miami they have been missing guys for awhile and yet still others have stepped up and I look for them to continue to do. I grabbed the money line in Game 1 of this series in Miami's upset and was happy to get the bigger payback but this time I feel the Knicks might scratch out a tight win and so the value is with the points in this one. As I mentioned in my Game 1 write-up, "The Knicks just beat Cleveland. However, the Cavaliers had not even been in the playoffs for 5 years. Now New York faces a real playoff team. The Heat are in the post-season for the 4th straight year. They have been to the NBA Finals once and the Conference Finals twice in the past 3 seasons alone. They just beat a Bucks team that not only had a fantastic regular season, they have a great recent playoff reputation as well with 7 straight playoff appearances and also a recent NBA Championship. The Heat lost guys to injury and it did not matter. The key is that it was NOT just about Jimmy Butler either. Yes he is the star but other guys have stepped up. If these guys can beat the Bucks and score on them like they did, you know the Knicks are going to have to really amp up their offensive game to have a chance in this series. New York averaged 100 ppg in the 5 games of the series with the Cavs." All of the above considered, getting about a half-dozen points to work with here is a great value for us. MIAMI +6.5 |
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05-02-23 | Panthers v. Maple Leafs OVER 6.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
NHL Tuesday OVER 6.5 in Toronto Maple Leafs vs Florida Panthers @ 7:10 ET - I know Toronto has had some success in lower-scoring games this season and used that tactic in knocking off Tampa Bay in the 6th game of their series. However, a lot of times in Game 1 of a new series when teams are off hard-fought series right before that, you can see a bit of a defensive letdown. Note that Florida just beat Boston in a bit of a miracle finish in Game 7 when they scored a goal with a minute to go to tie it and then they won it in overtime. That one was a 4-3 final and a hard-fought one at that. I expect a little open ice early in this one as both teams skating with a lot of confidence but also celebrating still. The Leafs just won first series since 2004! The Panthers just scored the biggest upset of the first round in their win over the heavily favored Bruins. OVER 6.5 in Toronto |
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05-02-23 | Chelsea v. Arsenal OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 10 m | Show |
Rotation #200165: English Premier League Tuesday OVER 2.5 in Arsenal vs Chelsea @ 3 ET - I am well aware of Chelsea's goal-scoring troubles but you know they would love nothing more than to play the role of spoiler here against Arsenal. Also, this Arsenal club has not exactly been water-tight at the back right now. That is evidenced by the fact they have both scored and conceded in 7 straight matches. Arsenal's last 9 matches in league action have all totaled 3 or more goals. The last 6 matches have all totaled at least 4 goals. Chelsea has allowed at least 2 goals in 4 straight matches and so Arsenal should have a big day as they look to bounce back off a rough 4-1 loss to Manchester City. However, Arsenal has allowed an average of 2 goals per match last 4 games and has given up at least one goal in 7 straight matches. Chelsea will get on the board here finally as they are desperate and will be aggressive but there is no denying Arsenal in this one. OVER 2.5 in Arsenal |
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05-02-23 | Hermannstadt v. UTA Arad OVER 2 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -127 | 6 h 43 m | Show |
Rotation #206829: Romania Liga 1 Tuesday OVER 2 in UTA vs Hermannstadt @ 1 ET - UTA is hosting a Hermannstadt club that scored 2 goals in its last visit here. Hermannstadt won that match 2-1 and also has scored at least 1 goal in 7 straight matches and scored 2 goals in each of last 3 matches. UTA is off a 1-0 loss to Universitatea Cluj in Cupa Romaniei action last week but in the playout league action they also have struggled. UTA has allowed 5 goals in last 3 matches but they are the favorite in this match-up with Hermannstadt for a reason. Though they were shutout at home in most recent match in Arad, UTA average scoring 1.5 goals in 8 home matches prior to that. They will respond here at home but Hermannstadt has been scoring plenty of late and could again put up a 2 spot here just as they did in their last visit. That said, there is great value with this total posted at just 2 goals in this one. Looking for at least a 2-1 final here per the above. OVER 2 in UTA |
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05-01-23 | Suns +165 v. Nuggets | Top | 87-97 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
NBA Monday Phoenix Suns +165 @ Denver Nuggets @ 10:05 ET - The Suns lost Game 1 by 18 points. It was a disastrous 2nd quarter - lost the period by 18 points - that was the difference in the game. Well that plus the fact that Denver outscored Phoenix by 27 points from 3-point land. Make no mistake though, the Nuggets were the right side in Game 1 and they did get the job done. However, I love Phoenix on the money line in this bounce back spot in Game 2. Note that Phoenix had won 11 of 14 games before the loss at Denver in Game 1. The Nuggets were 6-6 last 12 games before that big Game 1 win. They looked great in that game for sure but the Suns will make adjustments in Game 2 and they are an uber-talented team. As noted in my Game 1 write-up, I also like the fact that Phoenix beat the Clippers to get here, even though Kawhi missed much of the series whereas the Nuggets took on a dysfunctional Timberwolves team in round one. The right adjustments will be made here and the road team gets it done outright. No points needed. Grab the line value. PHOENIX +165 |
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05-01-23 | Rangers +108 v. Devils | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
NHL Monday 10* Top Play New York Rangers Money Line +100 @ New Jersey Devils @ 8:10 ET - All the other first round series that were going have finished. This Game 7 is it. Home ice must mean everything, right? Actually NO, every single team that has advanced, except Vegas as the lone exception, has advanced with the clinching win on enemy ice! Sunday it was Florida and Seattle. Saturday it was Toronto and Edmonton. Friday it was Carolina and Dallas. Those were the last 3 days and 6 road teams advanced! Now it is the Rangers turn. New York has a huge playoff experience edge over the Devils. In a Game 7 situation that experience means even more. The fact this game is at New Jersey means very little as the road team won the first 4 games in this series and, as noted above, in the other series' getting eliminated on your own ice was a common theme. More of the same here. Keep in mind, the Rangers have scored 5 goals in EACH of their 3 wins in this series. Conversely, the Devils have scored an average of only 2.7 goals in regulation time of their 3 wins in this series. The Rangers have all the momentum after the 5-2 home win in Game 6 and remember they won the first two games of this series here AT New Jersey each by a 5-1 score. 10* NEW YORK RANGERS +100 |
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05-01-23 | 76ers +10.5 v. Celtics | Top | 119-115 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
NBA Monday Philadelphia 76ers +10.5 @ Boston Celtics @ 7:30 ET - 76ers are without Embiid most likely in Game 1 of this series. However, they did play well without him this season. Also, getting double digits is a lot of points when you are a team as strong as Philadelphia is. The Sixers also have a big rest edge here as they quickly dispatched of the Nets. Remember that also including winning the clinching Game 4 at Brooklyn and without Embiid. The Celtics, on the other hand, had to fight hard to get past Atlanta. The Hawks were scrappy with Boston in the first round. I am not saying Philly wins this outright of course. But I am saying they have enough edges to keep this margin single digits throughout the match-up. This should be quite a battle as the Sixers are better than people realize even when Embiid is not on the floor. 10* PHILADELPHIA +10.5 |
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05-01-23 | Blue Jays v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 10 in Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 7:10 ET - The wind will be blowing out for this one. Two big name pitchers on the mound helping to keep this total reasonable. I really like the over a lot in this one as Jose Berrios generally has struggled much more on the road through the years. Also, Corey Kluber has struggled in 2 of his 3 home starts this season. Kluber is off a good road start but this followed allowing 4 or more earned runs in 3 of his first 4 starts this season. Berrios has been hot lately but I can not ignore that he got rocked in each of his first two road starts this season as this has been a pattern for him for a number of years too. These two bullpens are respectable but I am taking action on pitchers. I do not care who the starters are as this is a hitters ballpark with good weather and two solid lineups for this one. Boston is one of the top home hitting teams in MLB. Toronto has the #3 batting average in the AL in road games so far this season. Red Sox have averaged 7 runs scored in last 4 home games and 6.3 runs per game in last 10 games overall - home or away. The Blue Jays have averaged 5.3 runs per game their last 7 games and gone 6-1 during this stretch. Red Sox have won 10 of 16 so they are playing with confidence here as well. Great match-up that sets up well for runs. OVER 10 in Boston |
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05-01-23 | Everton v. Leicester OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
Rotation #200161: English Premier League OVER 2.5 in Leicester vs Everton @ 3 ET - Leicester has gone 18 straight matches in league action without a clean sheet. That said, odds favor that Everton will score at least 1 goal here. Also, Leicester is favored here at home for a reason. In other words, 2-1 final at a minimum the way I see it and an upset would not completely shock me. I know Everton has been so bad and they particularly struggle to score goals on the road but there is no hiding Leicester's track record for struggling to stop the opposition. At the same time, this is a key battle to avoid relegation so each club is pushing hard for the full 3 points in the table. As noted above, good reasoning (18 in a row) for expecting Everton to score here but also Leicester should deliver a huge performance on their home pitch. Leicester has 44 goals scored on the season and no club in the bottom half of the table has more than that! These guys will produce against an Everton club that is allowing 2 goals per match its last 22 matches across all competitions. OVER 2.5 in Leicester |
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05-01-23 | CFR Cluj v. Rapid Bucuresti OVER 2.25 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 101 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
Rotation #206825: Romania Liga 1 Monday OVER 2 goals -140 in Rapid vs CFR Cluj @ 1:30 ET - CFR Cluj just lost 3-0 in Cup action earlier this week. They are an angry bunch as they also lost their most recent match in Liga 1 action and did not score. This is rare for them and I am sure CFR Cluj will bounce back big here. The problem is they are at Rapid for this one in playoff action and you know the hosts are going to be tough to beat. I am looking for each club to score at least once and do not foresee either club being satisfied with a share of the spoils based on recent results. That said, the 2-1 final at a minimum is the expectation here but I will grab the over 2 goals with some heavy juice on the over just in case we have to settle for a push. Note that both meetings this season and 3 of the last 4 overall have totaled at least 3 goals when these clubs square off. Rapid enters this one off a 1-0 win but they had allowed 2 goals per match in the 5 matches before that. CFR Cluj, including that 3-0 loss to Sepsi, have allowed 1.4 goals per match in last 10 matches across all competitions. Both Rapid and CFR Cluj are very strong clubs in terms of offensive production but, as you can see, both allowing plenty of goals of late too. OVER 2 goals -140 in Rapid |
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05-01-23 | Luton Town v. Blackburn Rovers OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 8 m | Show |
Rotation #200277: English League Championship Monday OVER 2.5 goals +100 in Blackburn vs Luton @ 12:30 ET - I like the fact we get the over 2.5 here with no juice on the over. Luton has been red hot and is effectively now locked into the playoff seeding they needed as they will have home playoff match now but also can't catch the #2 spot for an automatic promotion. So we could see Luton make some personnel changes for this one. That does two things. One is these guys will be hungry to show what they can to plus extend a long unbeaten streak for this club. The other is that these personnel changes can lead to some miscues on the field that can lead to counterattack opportunities for the opposition. That opposition today is a Blackburn club that is hosting and desperately in need of a win. So the Rovers are going to bring it on their home pitch today I am sure. Blackburn lost 1-0 last week but that was against Burnley club that is the best club in the league. Prior to this, Blackburn had scored an average of 1.3 goals per match in their last dozen across all competitions. However, Blackburn has also allowed 1.5 goals per match in their last 10 matches across all competitions. Blackburn is a strong home club with only 3 draws in 22 matches as a host this season. That said, with needing 3 points badly and a low draw rate on their home pitch and high likelihood each club scores at least once here, you can see why I am expecting nothing less than a 2-1 final in this one! OVER 2.5 goals +100 in Blackburn |
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04-30-23 | Seattle Kraken v. Avalanche -1.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
NHL Sunday 10* Top Play Colorado Avalanche -1.5 +125 vs Seattle Kraken @ 9:35 ET - The Avalanche have had their last two wins in this series each come by a multiple goal margin and I expect more of the same here. The Avs are a big home favorite for a reason. Seattle had their chance at home to close this series out but Colorado is the defending champion on of the NHL and they certainly looked like that in Game 6. They wrapped up the regular season winning 16 of 19 and 7 of last 8 home wins in the regular season also by a multi-goal margin. The Kraken had a chance, as noted above, to finish this in Game 6. But only did Seattle not do that, the game was not even close. Colorado seemed to kick things up a notch and the Kraken could not match that. Look for that to again be the case here because, of course, there is no way the Avs will come out flat in this Game 7 situation on home ice. That is bad news for Seattle as this Avalanche team is just too much. They have turned the tide in this series and will not stop now. 10* COLORADO -1.5 +125 |
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04-30-23 | Panthers v. Bruins OVER 6 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
NHL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 6 in Boston Bruins vs Florida Panthers @ 6:35 ET - Been a ton of scoring as this series has gone on and I can't see that stopping here. The Panthers have found their recipe for success in this match-up and they can't stray away from that now. Down 3-1 in this series they have rallied for B2B wins and they have done it with an incredible display of scoring in the offensive zone. While I do expect that to continue here, you also know that the Bruins are a heavy money line favorite here with good reason. In other words, this one at 4-3 or 5-3 sounds about right. Getting this total at 6 rather than 6.5 makes it an even bigger value and I look for plenty of scoring again in this one. The last 5 games in this series have all totaled at least 6 goals and have averaged 8 goals apiece! More of the same expected here. I know it is a Game 7 but each of the last two games were elimination games also. 10* OVER 6 in Boston |
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04-30-23 | Reds v. A's OVER 8 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 52 m | Show |
MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 8 in Oakland A's vs Cincinnati Reds @ 4:05 ET - We lost with this play but will come right back with it today. The A's still have the worst bullpen in baseball. Also, Oakland is allowing 8 runs per game on the season which is unreal. Yesterday the Reds eventually found a way to win but they had a lot of hard hit balls right at guys. That said, the 3-2 final was not indicative of how well the ball was hit and also there were a lot of wasted opportunities. Both teams struggled with guys in scoring position. This one today should make up for it and while all of the above is the most important stuff and I am going action on pitchers as per usual, I will touch on the expected starters here now. Ken Waldichuk had one good start against the Cubs but has allowed 22 earned runs in 20 innings in his other 4 starts. Not good! Speaking of not good, the Reds Nick Lodolo has really hit a wall his past two starts. He had a good start to this season but now has been rocked in B2B outings for 14 earned runs in 9 innings of work. The Reds have a solid batting average versus lefties and the A's have a solid slugging percentage versus lefties. This battle of southpaws sets up to see plenty of scoring! 10* OVER 8 in Oakland |
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04-30-23 | Warriors v. Kings -120 | Top | 120-100 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 55 m | Show |
NBA Sunday Sacramento Kings -1.5 or money line vs Golden State Warriors @ 3:30 ET - The Warriors had their chance in Game 6. They got blown out. That is really an inexcusable loss and one that, no matter who you are, is tough to bounce back from. This is particularly true for a Golden State team that played so poorly outside of their own arena this season. That said, tremendous line value here with a resurgent and confident Kings team on their home floor. Remember they won the first two games of this series at home but then Sacramento lost a key game 5 and that should have been it for them. Instead they dug deep and got the win in Game 6 and turned back to their defense which had keyed them in the first two games also. That said, they are sure to be relentless on defense in this one with a chance to get a huge win in front of their own fans to advance to the 2nd round. SACRAMENTO -1.5 or money line |
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04-30-23 | Heat +175 v. Knicks | Top | 108-101 | Win | 175 | 6 h 56 m | Show |
NBA Sunday Miami Heat +175 @ New York Knicks @ 1 ET - The Knicks just beat Cleveland. However, the Cavaliers had not even been in the playoffs for 5 years. Now New York faces a real playoff team. The Heat are in the post-season for the 4th straight year. They have been to the NBA Finals once and the Conference Finals twice in the past 3 seasons alone. They just beat a Bucks team that not only had a fantastic regular season, they have a great recent playoff reputation as well with 7 straight playoff appearances and also a recent NBA Championship. The Heat lost guys to injury and it did not matter. The key is that it was NOT just about Jimmy Butler either. Yes he is the star but other guys have stepped up. If these guys can beat the Bucks and score on them like they did, you know the Knicks are going to have to really amp up their offensive game to have a chance in this series. New York averaged 100 ppg in the 5 games of the series with the Cavs. I am not saying the Heat win this series necessarily but I do feel a Game One shock for the Knicks as this is not a playoff-adverse Cavaliers team they are playing now. They are now playing a very confident and dangerous Heat team. No points needed. MIAMI +175 |
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04-30-23 | Tottenham Hotspur v. Liverpool OVER 3 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 54 m | Show |
Rotation #200157: English Premier League Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 3 or 3.5 in Liverpool vs Tottenham @ 11:30 AM ET - Tottenham showing renewed spirit as they rallied from 2 goals down under Ryan White and that was against another heavyweight, Manchester United. Now they take on a tough Liverpool club that also has been showing plenty of life of last. Also, Liverpool has been so tough at home this season. They score goals like crazy here but also Tottenham is sure to not go down without a fight. Tottenham just can not beat these guys and Liverpool has scored an average of 2 goals per match in the last 5 meetings. There has not been a clean sheet in any of those 5 matches for either club and, keep in mind, Tottenham still without Hugo Lloris in goal. Tottenham's last 4 matches have all totaled 3 or more goals and their last 3 matches have all totaled 4 or more goals. Liverpool's last 4 matches have all totaled at least 3 goals and the first three in that stretch all totaled at least 4 goals. This should be a very entertaining wide open match given the current situation for each club as well as the history in their match-ups. Liverpool again scores well on these guys but Tottenham, very hungry, is sure to answer. 10* OVER 3 or 3.5 in Liverpool |
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04-30-23 | Aston Villa v. Manchester United OVER 3 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 1 m | Show |
Rotation #200141: English Premier League Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 3 goals +110 in Manchester United vs Aston Villa @ 9 AM ET - With Emery patrolling the sidelines, Aston Villa has scored at least 1 goal in 20 straight premier league matches. This is a streak since he took over the reins so it is quite impressive to say the least. You can see why one can feel confident in Aston Villa making the net ripple given numbers like that. The other key here is that Manchester United is, of course, favored for a reason. That said, this one has the makings of at least a 2-1 final. I am expecting 4 or more here as each of the last 4 meetings between these clubs have topped the 4-goal mark! The most recent meeting totaled 6 goals. 10* OVER 3 +110 in Manchester United |
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04-29-23 | Oilers -161 v. Kings | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
NHL Saturday Edmonton Oilers Money Line -160 @ Los Angeles Kings @ 10:05 ET - This money line keeps rising but the move is justified. This is a chance tonight for the Oilers to close out the Kings and I fully expect that to happen. Edmonton has been the stronger team throughout this series but the Kings managed to hang around in the series courtesy of a couple of overtime wins. The Oilers also have one OT win but the other two wins were by a combined score of 10 to 5. Edmonton has looked strong and now has their swagger back following back to back wins as that OT win in Game 4 was key to changing the momentum of this series. Edmonton followed it up with a huge effort in Game 5 showing they were going to make the most of the momentum edge. I don't see them relinquishing that grip on the momentum here either. The Oilers are hungry because they know they really do have a shot this season. They have been on the cusp and this team is really built well and getting better goaltending than usual. There is no questioning the firepower they have up front. The better team with all the momentum closes this out Saturday. EDMONTON -160 |
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04-29-23 | Suns +130 v. Nuggets | Top | 107-125 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
NBA Saturday Phoenix Suns Money Line +130 @ Denver Nuggets @ 8:30 ET - Two very strong teams. It is hard to differentiate much between them. That is part of the reason I like the plus money here. But another reason I like it is because the big story heading into the Suns/Clippers series was a healthy Durant and he certainly has made a difference on this Phoenix team. The big story heading into the Nuggets/Wolves series was a dysfunctional Minnesota team with locker-room issues like Gobert wanting to fight teammates. In all seriousness Denver was not really tested in the first round because of the lack of cohesion of the Minny team they faced. Now the Nuggets get tested in a major way and I feel this game one could be very tough on them. In the regular season (but keep in mind KD very few games in a Suns uniform), Phoenix went 17-24 SU on the road and Denver went 34-7 SU at home. Consider those numbers and now consider that the odds makers opened up this game one line at damn near a pick'em! Do you think the odds makers are fools? Of course they are not and this line has already moved toward the Nuggets because of market perception. In typical contrarian fashion I am on the other side of the move. Not only that, I don't want the points. I am grabbing the extra value on the money line. PHOENIX +130 |
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04-29-23 | Devils v. Rangers -120 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
NHL Saturday New York Rangers Money Line -120 vs New Jersey Devils @ 8:08 ET - The last 5 times the Rangers have entered a game on a losing streak of 3 or more games they have gone 4-1. I just do not see this team laden with recent playoff experience getting knocked out of the post-season tonight on their home ice. Yes this series has turned on a dime after the Rangers won the first two games. The Devils have now won 3 straight but New Jersey actually has not had a winning streak of longer than 3 games since mid-January. Look for the Rangers to stand tall at home here and force a massive Game 7! This series is not over yet. NEW YORK RANGERS -120 |
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04-29-23 | Reds v. A's OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 7.5 in Oakland A's vs Cincinnati Reds @ 4:10 ET - The old adage about good pitching beats good hitting tends to be very true. However, what is talked about much less is also very true. That is the fact that bad pitching tends to lead to good hitting no matter the opponent! The fact is the Reds should keep pounding an Oakland team whose starting pitching and relief pitching have both struggled. Also, I look for a surprisingly resurgent A's lineup to keep hitting the ball well too. Yesterday's final was an 11-7 Cincy win. I like this play with action on the pitchers but I will start with them here. Kyle Muller has allowed 16 earned runs in 13 innings over his last 3 starts. Hunter Greene has been solid overall but he is in just his 2nd season and, so far, he has not been as sharp in day starts and this one goes at 1 PM local time in Oakland. He had a 2-7 road record last season and a 5.57 ERA in day games last season. He has had some command issues this season in day game action. Muller has an 8.68 ERA on the season. Cincinnati's bullpen has been surprisingly decent this season but still ranks around the middle of the pack in the majors. As for the A's bullpen, it has been a disaster with a 7.03 ERA. Overall, Oakland is allowing 8 runs per game which is absolutely insane when you think about it! They are heating up at the plate right now though too and have scored an average of 6 runs per game last 5 games. The Reds are allowing 5 runs per game this season. But they have scored 7.5 runs per game last 4 games and should have no trouble with this struggling A's pitching staff. 10* OVER 7.5 in Oakland |
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04-29-23 | Farul Constanta 1920 v. Sepsi OVER 2.25 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -59.5 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
Rotation #206813: Romania Liga 1 Saturday OVER 2.5 +115 in Sepsi vs Farul @ 2:45 ET - Farul off a 1-0 victory last week but that was preceded by 4 of 5 matches totaling at least 3 goals. Farul has scored 1.7 goals per match last 6 matches. Sepsi needs to respond on their home pitch after a tough run in the play-off. They are off a 3-0 win Wednesday over CFR Cluj in the Cupa României so they certainly bring some momentum into this match. 12 of last 16 Sepsi matches across all competitions have totaled at least 3 goals as they also beat CS Mioveni 4-1 in their first match-up in the Cupa României earlier in April. Sepsi has scored 1.7 goals per match last 15 matches across all competitions. You can see why this total is posted at higher than 2 but also why there is solid value with this total in terms of the over and expecting at least 3 goals given all of the above. 10* OVER 2.5 +115 in Sepsi |
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04-29-23 | Botosani v. Petrolul 52 OVER 2 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -119 | 5 h 10 m | Show |
Rotation #206809: Romania Liga 1 Saturday OVER 2 in Petrolul Ploiesti vs FC Botosani @ 10 AM ET - Petrolul Ploiesti has revenge for a 5-0 loss to FC Botosani when these clubs met in February. The prior match this season also topped the 2-goal mark as it was a 2-1 win for Petrolul Ploiesti. I look for the hosts to be relentless here in the revenge role and we have fantastic value with this total at 2 goals. I know that FC Botosani is off a scoreless draw last week but they had scored at least 1 goal in 5 straight matches prior to that. Considering that plus the revenge of Petrolul Ploiesti, you have a nice situation for goals here. There have only been 2 times this entire season, and these were many months ago, that FC Botosani was shutout in B2B games. Petrolul Ploiesti has scored at least 1 goal in 7 of last 9 matches and averaged 1.3 goals per match in those 7 matches. OVER 2 in Petrolul Ploiesti |
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04-29-23 | Wolverhampton Wanderers v. Brighton & Hove Albion -1 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 4 h 47 m | Show |
Rotation #200134: English Premier League Saturday Brighton & Hove -1 -120 vs Wolverhampton @ 10 AM ET - Wolverhampton has won just 2 of 16 road matches this season and is facing an angry host here. Brighton has lost just 4 of 14 home matches this season but they are coming off B2B disappointing results and this has them fired up here. They will respond big on their home pitch. They had a scoreless draw end in a loss on penalty kicks to Manchester United in the English FA Cup two matches ago. After that heart-breaking loss they were flat against Nottingham Forest and paid the price with a 3-1 loss on the road. Brighton will surely be at their best today to make up for those losses and I am expecting a blowout home win to result. BRIGHTON -1 -120 |
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04-29-23 | Nottingham Forest v. Brentford OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 3 h 17 m | Show |
Rotation #200137: English Premier League OVER 2.5 in Brentford vs Nottingham Forest @ 10 AM ET - I know that Nottingham Forest has been so bad on the road this season but they can rally off last week's 3-1 win over Brighton & Hove and should score on the road now this week even though that is rare for them. The issue for Nottingham Forest is that they generally can not stop clubs and this has particularly been true on the road where they have been dreadful in that regard. That said, Brentford should have a huge performance here and the Bees are averaging 2 goals scored per match when on their home pitch this season. Building off the momentum of a 2-0 win over Chelsea, even though that victory was ugly, Brentford can now take advantage of a porous back line and score plenty in this one. The key is a rejuvenated Nottingham Forest desperate to avoid relegation as they are likely to find the back of the net once in this once but the hosts a big favorite for a reason. OVER 2.5 in Brentford |
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04-28-23 | Grizzlies +186 v. Lakers | Top | 85-125 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 11 m | Show |
NBA Friday Memphis Grizzlies +185 @ Los Angeles Lakers @ 10:30 ET - Maybe LeBron is getting old? All kidding aside (and Brooks talking trash after Game 2 is not smart!), the fact is we do have great line value here with the Grizzlies on the money line. I expect this series to go back to Memphis. The Lakers had a chance to finish off a Grizzlies team that could have had some self-doubt after losing both games at LA including a gut-wrenching OT loss in Game 4. That should have finished the Grizzlies off and the Lakers should have gotten the job done in Game 5 but did not. This could come back to bite them. LeBron had a horrible Game 5 and he'll look to dig deep and come up big in Game 6 here. The problem is that the Grizzlies have something again heading into Game 6 which they really did not have heading into Game 5: CONFIDENCE! Memphis has new life and lets not forget they could have easily won 3 of the last 4 games. One could argue they never should have lost Game 4 in OT at LA. So the point is that the Grizzlies have arguably been the better team since the series-opening ugly loss and yet they are catching sizable points here. We will not need them. Look for the Grizzlies to build off the momentum and take advantage of a Lakers team that is just not what it use to be. It was not just Morant, Bane and Jackson that were the story in Game 5. Bench guys like Jones, Aldma and Kennard all had strong +/- ratings in limited minutes while the Lakers bench had 4 guys with ratings of -18 or worse! This series is not over yet. See you in Memphis for Game 7 as Grizzlies get win! 10* MEMPHIS +185 |
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04-28-23 | Avalanche -145 v. Seattle Kraken | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
NHL Friday 10* Top Play Colorado Avalanche -145 @ Seattle Kraken @ 10:08 ET - In the regular season the Kraken actually lost 21 of 41 home games. The Avalanche were a fantastic 29-11-1 in road games in the regular season. If Colorado loses tonight, their season is over. The road team has actually won 3 of the 5 games in this series. The Avs are off B2B losses which is a situation that is worth noting as they are 4-1 last 5 times they entered a game on a losing streak of 2 or more games. I just do not see them losing 3 straight to the Kraken and getting bounced out of the post-season after winning the Cup last year. Also, they know with one more win here they can send this series back to home ice for a winner takes all Game 7. I just do not see the Avs being denied here. Entering Game 5 they where on a stretch in which they had scored 11 of the last 17 goals scored in regulation in this series. Now after that tight 3-2 Game 5 loss, I fully expect the Avalanche to bounce back. The Kraken have just 6 wins in last 15 home games and one of those was in OT here in this series. Love the value of the road team at a manageable price here because they are on the road. 10* COLORADO -145 |
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04-28-23 | Reds v. A's OVER 8.5 | Top | 11-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Oakland A's vs Cincinnati Reds @ 9:40 ET - I like this play with action on the pitchers but I will start with them here. Kyle Muller has allowed 16 earned runs in 13 innings over his last 3 starts. Luis Cessa had his best start of the season at Pittsburgh last week but that still was not a great start. He has struggled overall this season and has a 10.80 ERA on the season. Muller has an 8.68 ERA on the season. Cincinnati's bullpen has been surprisingly decent this season but the A's bullpen has been a disaster with a 6.75 ERA. Overall, Oakland is allowing 8 runs per game which is absolutely insane when you think about it! They are heating up at the plate right now though too and have scored an average of 6 runs per game last 4 games. The Reds are allowing 5 runs per game this season. But they have scored 6.3 runs per game last 3 games and should have no trouble with this struggling A's pitching staff. 10* OVER 8.5 in Oakland |
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04-28-23 | Kings +7.5 v. Warriors | Top | 118-99 | Win | 100 | 14 h 4 m | Show |
NBA Friday Sacramento Kings +7.5 @ Golden State Warriors @ 8 ET - Line moving toward Golden State at home, of course. I am grabbing the value on the other side of the move. The Kings still believe and with one win they send this series back to Sacramento for Game 7. There has been one blowout in this series. The other 4 games have been decided by an average margin of 4.8 points. The Kings are 8-2 SU the last 10 times they have entered a game on a losing streak of at least two games. Not only is that impressive, we do not need a SU win to get the cash in this case. We also have 7.5 points to work with. I like our chances! SACRAMENTO +7.5 |
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04-28-23 | Hurricanes +110 v. Islanders | Top | 2-1 | Win | 110 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
NHL Friday Carolina Hurricanes +110 @ New York Islanders @ 7:05 ET - The better team off a 1-goal loss in which they heavily outshot their opponent. There is a lot to like with the Hurricanes here including the fact we get line value since they are on the road. The traveler has won each of the last two meetings between these clubs and I expect that trend to continue here. I really like Carolina when they are off a loss in post-season action and here they have another chance to close this series out after falling short at home in Game 5. Ideal set-up and with line value. CAROLINA +110 |
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04-28-23 | MIllwall v. Blackpool OVER 2.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 105 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
Rotation #200233: English League Championship Friday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 in Blackpool vs Millwall @ 3 ET - I do play a high percentage of overs rather than sides or unders in football. However, it is only when the situation is right and this is another one of those situations that is a good one. Blackpool is relegation-threatened and, arguably relegation-likely. However they got a key win last week and do still have life and will push hard for the full 3 points in the table here. At the same time, Millwall is trying to earn a playoff position but has hurt themselves with consecutive losses. That means they are also pushing hard for the full 3 points in the table in this one. When you consider those factors plus the fact each club is likely to score at least a goal, you have likelihood of a 2-1 final at a minimum here. Blackpool has scored at least 1 goal in 7 of last 8 matches. However, prior to last week's 1-0 win, Blackpool had conceded an average of 2.5 goals last 6 matches. The hosts have scored an average of 1.8 goals last 5 home matches. Millwall has seen 3 of last 4 meetings with them total at least 3 goals. These clubs combine for a 25% draw rate so, based on odds alone, 75% chance this match will not end in a draw. Millwall has had a tough April but did score a goal in their most recent match and also scored 2 goals in their most recent victory which preceded the B2B losses. They are fired up and know it is do or die time and they will take advantage of facing a club near the very bottom of the table. But the hosts will put up a fight here. Look for a 2-1 type match as a result. 10* OVER 2.5 in Blackpool |
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04-28-23 | Chindia Targoviste v. U Craiova 1948 OVER 2.25 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
Rotation #206801: Romania Liga 1 Friday 10* Top Play OVER 2 goals -135 in U Craiova 1948 vs Chindia Targoviste @ 1:30 ET - The value of an over 2 here well worth the -135 price in a match that is going to see U Craiova 1948 come out strong after a scoreless draw last week. Prior to that one, 4 of their last 5 matches had totaled at least 3 goals. In those 4 matches U Craiova 1948 scored an average of 2.2 goals but allowed an average of 2 goals. I know the recent history of matches between these two clubs is one of a low-scoring nature but the current situation and current form suggests we will see quite a different result here! Note that Chindia Targoviste comes into this one with some momentum. They have won 2 of last 4 matches and are off a 2-1 victory and two of their last three matches have totaled at least 3 goals. Considering that plus the recent high-scoring ways of U Craiova 1948, I am looking for a 2-1 type match here. The visitors have not had a draw in any of their last 5 matches and both clubs going strong for the full 3 points in the table in this one. 10* OVER 2 goals -135 in U Craiova 1948 |
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04-27-23 | Jets +163 v. Golden Knights | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
NHL Thursday 10* Top Play Winnipeg Jets Money Line +163 @ Vegas Golden Knights @ 10:10 ET - The Jets played better in Game 4 but still fell just short. They lost Game 3 in double-OT and that was on home ice and that is certainly tough to bounce back from. I feel we have tremendous big dog value here when you consider the way this series has played out. Hellebuyck is still an elite goalie and is capable of a big performance here. The road team has won 3 of the 4 games in the series and that includes the Jets getting a 5-1 win here in Vegas to begin the series. The only home win in the 4 games in this series was a game what was tied 2-2 entering the 3rd period. I just do not see any justification for this high price on the Golden Knights here. Yes the Jets could lose another tight game that swings late but I have a sense they are going to get over the hump in this one and finally catch a break and send this series back to Manitoba for Game 6 north of the border. 10* WINNIPEG +165 |
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04-27-23 | Celtics v. Hawks +7 | Top | 128-120 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
NBA Thursday 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks +7 vs Boston Celtics @ 8:30 ET - Some might look and say there is no way the Hawks have a chance here because it was a Trae Young miracle in Game 5. While certainly his feats were ultra-impressive, the fact is that the Hawks played an all-around great game. The rest of the team shot 14 of 28 from distance plus contributed 81 points and played good clean basketball by limiting turnovers. This was on the road AT Boston. So I am not saying the Hawks will win this game outright but I do feel we have excellent line value here with the big points at home and the fact that Atlanta has shown they will not quit in this series. The Hawks home record this season is nearly identical to the Celtics road record this season and expecting Game 6 to go to the wire is really not asking too much here. This game could go either way late the way I see it so having the 7 points on your side is a huge benefit. 10* ATLANTA +7 |
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04-27-23 | Lightning v. Maple Leafs OVER 6.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
NHL Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 6.5 in Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning @ 7:08 ET - This has been a very high-scoring series and no signs of that changing. Just a lot of firepower on both clubs and Vasilevskiy has not been his normal self in goal for the Bolts. Also, as per usual, the Maple Leafs biggest concern this time of year is netminding and defense. So all signs point to yet another high-scoring game as the Bolts are going to have to score plenty here as Toronto will be buzzing to try to advance to the next round. 10* OVER 6.5 in Toronto |
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04-27-23 | Manchester United v. Tottenham Hotspur OVER 3 | Top | 2-2 | Win | 115 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
Rotation #200125: English Premier League Thursday OVER 2.5 or 3 in Tottenham vs Manchester United @ 3:15 ET - With the managerial change after the embarrassing 6-1 loss, Tottenham is sure to respond here. However, they lost their current top goalie and now go back to the guy that had been demoted to the #2 goalie spot. So, instead of the injured Lloris it will be Forster in between the sticks for the hosts in this one. It will be a challenge as Manchester United, even without the injured Fernandes, has plenty of scoring threat and they are fired up for some big scoring here after the scoreless draw versus Brighton. That one actually featured solid chances and I know Man U is going to bring it here as they have not scored a goal in last two matches. The thing is, Tottenham will have extra aggression on the attack here too as they respond to the ugly loss and subsequent managerial change. What I like about this total being at a 2.5 or 3 in most spots, is the fact that Tottenham has both scored and conceded in 6 straight matches. Not only that, there has not been a draw in an EPL match at this stadium since 2021. So the point is, we can fully expect at least a 2-1 final in this one the way I see it. But truly I am expecting at least 4 goals as both clubs bring their A game on the Attack in this one! The last meeting between these clubs was a 2-0 Man U win but this followed 4 matches that all totaled at least 3 goals and actually averaged nearly 5 goals per match! We'll see plenty of scoring in this one is my strong prediction here. OVER 2.5 or 3 in Tottenham |
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04-27-23 | Cardiff City v. Rotherham United OVER 2 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 0 m | Show |
Rotation #200229: English League Championship Thursday OVER 2 in Rotherham United vs Cardiff City @ 3 ET - Excellent line value with this total at a 2 even with juice in the -135 range. Both clubs should score at least once and that would mean nothing less than a push and a 1-1 final. However, considering both clubs proximity to the relegation zone, they also are pushing hard for the full 3 points in the table and all signs point to at least a 2-1 final the way I see it. Note that Rotherham has allowed at least 1 goal (and average of 1.6 goals conceded) in last 7 matches on their home pitch. Rotherham also has scored at least 1 goal in 5 of last 6 on home pitch and averaged scoring 2.2 goals in those 5 matches. Cardiff has both scored and conceded in 5 of their 6 matches this month. Those 5 matches averaged totaling 4 goals apiece and we only need 3 to be a winner here. Also, Ryan Allsop has an abductor injury and is expected to miss the rest of the season. He is the starting goalie for Cardiff so that means little used #2 Jak Alnwick (struggling in 2023) will get the start here. OVER 2 in Rotherham |
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04-27-23 | Newcastle United v. Everton OVER 2.5 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 110 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
Rotation #200117: English Premier League Thursday OVER 2.5 +110 in Everton vs Newcastle United @ 2:45 ET - If I could write the script for this I would say Everton scores an early goal and then Newcastle immediately responds to tie and then eventually wins the match 2-1. That is the type of match I am expecting here. Newcastle is off that 6-1 thrashing of Tottenham so I could see them coming out flat here and Everton - finally getting some key players back - takes advantage and gets an early marker. The issue for Everton is that they will have then poked the bear so to speak and this Newcastle club has it sights set on a top four finish in the Premier League. They are in excellent current form and there solid goal-scoring run should continue here. However, in support of my script for this one, do note that Newcastle has conceded at least 1 goal in 6 straight road matches. Overall, 4 straight Newcastle matches have totaled at least 3 goals and these 4 matches have averaged nearly 5 goals per match! Everton is off a shocking scoreless draw but this was preceded by a 7-match stretch that averaged 3 goals apiece. Look for at least a 2-1 final here. OVER 2.5 +110 in Everton |
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04-27-23 | Mariners v. Phillies -105 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 21 m | Show |
MLB Thursday Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -105 vs Seattle Mariners @ 1:05 ET - Action on pitchers. Phillies are are 7-3 last 10 games after another come-from behind win yesterday as they are now a perfect 4-0 L4 times when off a loss. The Mariners have now lost 4 of last 5 road games and Seattle has lost 5 of 7 overall after the loss yesterday. I know George Kirby is a solid pitcher but this is a tough Phillies lineup and also the Phillies Matt Strahm has been piling up strikeouts. Look for Strahm to keep the Mariners off-balance and note that Seattle is 3-6 in day games while Phillies are 8-6 in day games this season. This game starts at 10 AM on the body clocks of the Mariners as it is a 1 ET game. Phillies get the job done again as their bullpen is finally starting to perform as originally expected - remember the season is early - and I look for the hosts to make it 5 out of last 6 on their home field! PHILADELPHIA -105 |
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04-26-23 | Warriors v. Kings +115 | Top | 123-116 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play Sacramento Kings +115 vs Golden State Warriors @ 10 ET - The home team has won all 4 of the games in this series. The Warriors had the biggest home/road dichotomy of any team in the NBA this season. In fact, the home team - including post-season - is now 67-19 in all their game this season. I am riding with the home team again in this one. I know that De'Aaron Fox is hurting for Sacramento but he has said he is playing and is ready to go and his fracture is an avulsion fracture on his finger. The Kings very nearly are up 3 games to 1 in this series but fell just 1 point short in Game 4 at Golden State. I do not expect them to be denied if this one is a tight finish as they get the job done at home. I will grab them as a SU money line dog here as the SU run for the home team in Warriors games this season is 67-19 as noted above. The Kings will be stronger defensively at home even if Fox is not 100% and also, the Warriors tend to not shoot as well on the road. 10* SACRAMENTO +115 |
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04-26-23 | Seattle Kraken v. Avalanche OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
NHL Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 5.5 in Colorado Avalanche vs Seattle Kraken @ 9:35 ET - The Avalanche should be relentless here as they are off that 3-2 OT loss in Game 4 but scored 9 goals in winning each of the 2 prior games. I think Colorado is realizing they need to be a little more aggressive for their best successes in this match-up with Seattle. At the same time, Seattle has to have some additional confidence with scoring 4 goals in the Game 3 loss plus coming up with the OT game-winner in Game 4 to knot the series. Seattle enters this one with much more confidence as a result and I feel that the total coming down to a 5.5 from a 6 is a key value for us that I will not pass up on. You might think of a grinder resulting in a spot like this but the Avs are angry and will be skating hard on home ice and will score as much as they have to get the win. They will be ultra-aggressive even with a 2-goal lead. They don't want to be burned again in OT like they were in Game 4. 10* OVER 5.5 in Colorado |
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04-26-23 | Astros v. Rays OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros @ 6:40 ET - Calvin Faucher is really just an opener here but has struggled recently and could help the Astros bats get off to a hot start here. Keep in mind they scored 5 runs on 11 hits yesterday so they should be good to go here. I am not concerned with the pitchers and will take action here because this is essentially a bullpen game for the Rays. As for Astros, whoever is on the mound - starters and relievers - will be facing an angry Rays lineup that got shutout yesterday. That said, I expect the runs to blow in this one. Keep in mind, Tampa Bay entered yesterday's game 20-3 on the year and the 3 times they were held to 2 or less runs in a game this season they responded each time in the next game and actually averaged 8 runs per game in these 3 games. Looking for a big response here from TB. The scheduled starter for Astros is Hunter Brown and he gave up 4 earned runs in less than 5 innings in most recent start. Keep in mind the Rays are averaging 6.5 runs per game in their games this season. The Astros are averaging a solid 5 runs per game this season and are the defending champs and getting use to facing Rays pitching. The fact is that if we get 4 runs from each team we can not lose this play and I like our chances of doing just that tonight. 10* OVER 8.5 in Tampa Bay |
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04-26-23 | West Bromwich Albion v. Sheffield United OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
Rotation #200221: English League Championship Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 in Sheffield United vs West Bromwich Albion @ 3 ET - Sheffield can clinch automatic promotion with a win. For West Bromwich, this match is ultra important due to playoff reasons. That said, both clubs going strong here for the full 3 points in the table and I expect at least a 2-1 match here at a minimum. West Bromwich is averaging 1.24 goals per match on the road this season. Sheffield is averaging 2 goals match at home this season. In terms of recent form, Sheffield has won each of last 4 as a host and is averaging 2.2 goals per match during that 4-0 run. West Bromwich has scored 2 goals in each of last 2 road matches and has scored at least 1 goal in 4 straight road matches. Overall, 4 of last 5 West Bromwich matches have totaled at least 3 goals. Look for this one to reach that mark as well. 10* OVER 2.5 in Sheffield United |
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04-26-23 | Arsenal v. Manchester City -158 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
Rotation #200114: English Premier League Wednesday 10* Top Play Manchester City Money Line -158 vs Arsenal @ 3 ET - Manchester City the much hotter club. Arsenal had to rally from 2 goals down for a 3-3 draw in most recent match. Prior to that, Arsenal had back to back 2-2 draws in which they blew 2-goal leads. So the problem is that Arsenal is having a lot of trouble in their own end and conceding far too much. Now they face the most dangerous offensive club on the planet right now. Yes Manchester City scored only 1 goal in a 1-1 draw with Bayern Munich recently but that was because it was all that they needed. Now they will be going for the throat here against Arsenal as this is a battle for supremacy in the premier league and if they win this match they control their own destiny. I just do not see Man City being denied here. They are the better team and in the much better current form right now. Without William Saliba, Arsenal will particularly struggle in trying to stop Erling Braut Haaland. Additionally, even if Granit Xhaka returns from illness for this one, he is unlikely to be 100%. This is a tough situation for Arsenal all the way around and they are on the road for this one too. Yes they have been great on the road this season but City has been superb at home - tops in the league as a host! City has won the last 5 meetings by an aggregate score of 12 to 2 and their stronger defensive play of yet plus home pitch and being the healthier team will all be key factors adding up to a home victory here. 10* MANCHESTER CITY -158 |
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04-26-23 | Liverpool v. West Ham United OVER 2.75 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 50 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
Rotation #200105: English Premier League Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 or 3 in West Ham United vs Liverpool @ 2:45 ET - West Ham has scored 10 goals last 3 matches across all competitions. West Ham also has averaged 2.2 goals last 9 matches across all competitions as a host. Their last two matches with Liverpool have both been 1-0 wins for the Reds but this one sure looks different. Note also that the 3 meetings prior to those 2 all totaled 3 or more goals and averaged 4 goals apiece. As for the key to why this one will be more like the former 3 rather than the latter 2 , both of these clubs enter this one having scored goals like crazy of late. Liverpool has scored 11 goals last 3 matches. However, Liverpool also has allowed 1.8 goals per match last 5 matches. Looking at just EPL matches, Liverpool has scored 2.3 goals per match last 9 matches! Given all of the above, I would not be surprised to see each of these clubs get to the 2 goal mark in this one. 2-2 draw or a 3-2 final and, in my mind, at the very least a 2-1 final. 10* OVER 2.5 or 3 in West Ham United |
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04-25-23 | Kings v. Oilers -1.5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 115 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
NHL Tuesday 10* Top Play Edmonton Oilers Puck Line -1.5 +115 vs Los Angeles Kings @ 9:38 ET - This series is very close to being 3-1 Kings but the fact is the Oilers rallied for the tying goal in Game 4 and finally got an OT win to go their way and that changes everything. The reality is that, as close as this series is to being 3-1 Los Angeles, it could just as easy be over and have been a 4-0 sweep for the Oilers! Give credit to the Kings for their moxie in this series but Edmonton has been the better team throughout. Now, with all the momentum on their side and back on home ice, Oilers roll to a big home win here. They certainly don't want to chance this game to overtime and I look for them to be relentless. Keep in mind, the Kings only 2 wins in this series have been in overtime. The Oilers did have a 4-2 win here on home ice and I believe that was a heart-breaking loss for LA in Game 4 while Edmonton is absolutely going to build off that win. What a win for the Oilers and now they are at home and can get their first lead of this series. They have deserved to be leading in this series and now the set-up is perfect for them to get what they deserve. 10* EDMONTON -1.5 +115 |
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04-25-23 | Hawks v. Celtics OVER 229 | Top | 119-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
NBA Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 229 in Boston Celtics vs Atlanta Hawks @ 7:30 ET - We should see plenty of points in this one as I just don't think the defensive intensity will be there. Atlanta was not good on that side of the court to begin with and now they know the handwriting is on the wall that their season will end tonight. As for the Celtics, they realize too that they should easily take this game and I expect them to play a very free-flowing game tonight as a result. The are 13.5 point favorites with good reason. The key to the value here is that the total has dropped a little because Dejounte Murray is out for Atlanta. However, the pace and open looks should be perfect for an over here. Note that Boston has averaged 123 points in the last 3 games and the Hawks have averaged 125.5 ppg the last 2 games. 7 of the 8 quarters in the last two games between these teams have had at least 58 points scored. That averages to 232 points per game and again there has been only one quarter that totaled less than 58. So the point is that the pacing has been consistent and, even without Murray, the Hawks have no choice but to run and gun here and play their typical style. The are not going to win a half-court grinder with the Celtics. So points will be aplenty here in a free-flowing game the way I see it. That said, extra value too with this total having dropped a few points from its opener due to Murray's suspension. 10* OVER 229 in Boston |
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04-25-23 | Islanders v. Hurricanes OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
NHL Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 5.5 +130 in Carolina Hurricanes vs New York Islanders @ 7:08 ET - We have seen plenty of goals in the last 3 games and I look for more of the same here. Carolina will be very aggressive on home ice in looking to end this series. Islanders are desperate to extend series for another game. I expect this desperation on one side and a ruthlessness on the other side to lead to plenty of goals here. There is some 5 out there at big juice but I like the option here of the 5.5 at solid plus money and expect a solid winner with 6 or more here as the last 3 games in this series have averaged nearly 7 goals apiece and, overall, scoring has been up in this post-season so far. 10* OVER 5.5 +130 in Carolina |
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04-25-23 | Mariners v. Phillies +105 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies +105 vs Seattle Mariners @ 6:40 ET - Action on pitchers. The Phillies expected to start Bailey Falter here and the Mariners expected to start Logan Gilbert in this one. However, regardless of starting pitchers I like the Phillies at home as they have won 3 straight games and are building up momentum after a slow start to the season. Spirts are up in Philly as Bryce Harper could return at DH in early May too so things are looking much better since an early season slump and the loss of Rhys Hoskins to season-ending injury right before the season started. In looking at the starting pitchers here, Falter off a strong start and also was strong in his only home start this season. As for Gilbert, he was strong in only 1 of his last 3 starts and in the other 2 he allowed 7 earned runs in 10 innings. The Mariners are below .500 this season and that is even including having played 16 of their 22 games at home this season! They are only 1-3 last 4 road games and this is the furthest east they will have traveled so far this season. The Phillies have won 3 straight and 6 of 8 and will stay hot here! 10* PHILADELPHIA +105 |
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04-25-23 | Burnley v. Blackburn Rovers OVER 2.25 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -113 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
Rotation #200225: English League Championship Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 +110 in Blackburn vs Burnley @ 3 ET - Burnley wants to clinch the title finally after a rare 3-match winless streak and what better place to do that than at rival Blackburn. However, you know the hosts will do all they can to prevent that from happening. I expect all this to translate to goals because Blackburn will put up a fight on their home pitch but they have conceded 14 times in last 9 matches. Burnley has conceded 10 goals in last 5 matches away from home across all competitions. Blackburn has given up late equalizers in each of their last two matches and Burnley also frustrated with not getting winning results of late. This will lead to extra goal-scoring push in this one the way I see it. A strong attack from both clubs likely in an entertaining affair that should get to at least 2-1 the way I see it. 10* OVER 2.5 +110 in Blackburn |
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04-25-23 | Leicester v. Leeds United OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -136 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
Rotation #200085 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 in Leeds United vs Leicester @ 3 ET - These are two of the worst clubs in the league in terms of goals allowed but both have been scoring decently of late as well. These two clubs are down near the bottom of the table so both are pushing for the full 3 points here and I don't foresee a draw as a result. Look for at least a 2-1 final. Note that Leeds home matches have averaged about 3 goals apiece this season and Leicester road matches have averaged about 4 goals apiece this season. The fact that their recent meetings (the last 3) have all totaled 2 or less goals is helping to keep this total lower than it should be. The two meetings prior to those each totaled 4 or more goals. Leeds last 7 matches have ALL totaled 3 or more goals and have averaged FIVE goals apiece! 9 of last 13 Leicester City matches have totaled at least 3 goals. Those 9 have averaged 4 goals apiece. All signs pointing to a wide open affair here totaling at least 3 goals. 10* OVER 2.5 in Leeds |
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04-25-23 | Crystal Palace v. Wolverhampton Wanderers OVER 2 | Top | 0-2 | Push | 0 | 6 h 19 m | Show |
Rotation #200073: English Premier League Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 2 in Wolverhampton vs Crystal Palace @ 2:30 ET - Crystal Palace is off a scoreless draw last week so the low total of 2 here makes sense in that regard. However, under Hodgson, Palace has been revitalized and I am not going to let one tough effort against a nemesis impact the thought process here. The fact is that Crystal Palace had won 3 straight matches and scored an average of 3 goals per match. As for Wolverhampton, they should also get on the board here on their home pitch and they also have had just 2 draws in 16 home matches this season. In other words, a 1-1 match is very likely to end up at least 2-1. Note that the Wolves have scored at least 1 goal in 7 straight matches! Also, Crystal Palace has scored 2 goals in each of the last 3 meetings between these clubs. This is why I feel we have excellent value here and I will not pass up on it. 10* OVER 2 in Wolverhampton |
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04-24-23 | Grizzlies +170 v. Lakers | Top | 111-117 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
NBA Monday 10* Top Play Memphis Grizzlies Money Line +165 @ Los Angeles Lakers @ 10 ET - Give credit to the Lakers for answering the call in Game 3 after the Game 2 loss at Memphis. Now it is the Grizzlies turn in Game 4. Note that Memphis was down huge early in Game 3 but then played much better the rest of the way. The Grizzlies will carry some momentum from that right into tonight's game and they will certainly not have such a huge early hole to dig out of. Los Angeles is breathing a sigh of relief after the win Saturday and I would not be surprised to see them having losing some of that mental edge here that they had so strongly in Game 3. For sure LeBron had extra motivation after Brooks comments after Game 2. Now that Brooks has been eating crow so to to speak and the Lakers could let up after the easy win Saturday, Monday is going to see the Grizzlies bring a huge effort and that should be enough for the big win. Note that Memphis wrapped up the regular season having gone 5-0 SU when off a SU loss. They also answered the bell in the post-season with a Game 2 win after a Game 1 loss. I look for the Grizzlies to continue this pattern and again respond off a loss. No points needed! I will grab another money line dog here. 10* MEMPHIS +165 |
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04-24-23 | Golden Knights v. Jets -104 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -104 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
NHL Monday 10* Top Play Winnipeg Jets Money Line -105 vs Vegas Golden Knights @ 9:38 ET - I will keep riding the Jets here. Yes they ended up losing Game 3 in DOUBLE OT but that has helped retain line value here. As I mentioned in my write-up for Game 3, we get some line value because Vegas pulled away late in their Game 2 win. Keep in mind, Winnipeg won game 1 and then looked like they were on their way to another win in Game 2 before things changed in a hurry. The Jets will no doubt regroup on home ice and goalie Connor Hellebuyck is so strong. Look for a big bounce back effort from the Jets in this one after losing Game 3 in very tough fashion in double OT. Goalie edge and home ice edge and plus situational edge with Winnipeg now off B2B losses. The Jets, the last 4 times when they have entered a game coming off 2 or more consecutive losses have won all 4 times. I look for that streak to reach a perfect 5-0 L5 here. WINNIPEG -105 |
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04-24-23 | Cardinals v. Giants OVER 8 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 8 in San Francisco Giants vs St Louis Cardinals @ 9:45 ET - This total has dropped from an 8.5 to an 8 and I am going to jump right in on the added value here. Yes, Cobb has a low ERA this season but he has been hit at a .313 clip so he has been fortunate for sure. Yes, the Cardinals have a solid bullpen but the Giants bullpen has struggled and also St Louis could see their pen called upon early as Montgomery has been struggling getting hit hard in last two starts. That said, I am looking for a rather easy over as this one flies over the low total. Wind blowing out at a good clip early in this one too. We should see solid scoring after yesterday's game involving the Giants got to 5-4 by the middle innings but then the total died at that point and so it was a tough push for over players. This one should keep on going with the Cards now in town instead of the Mets. The Cardinals 7 of last 8 games have totaled at least 9 runs and those 8 games have averaged 11 runs per game. The Giants 3 of last 4 games have totaled at least 9 runs and those have averaged 10 runs apiece. More of the same here. 10* OVER 8 in San Francisco |
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04-24-23 | Maple Leafs v. Lightning OVER 6.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 101 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
NHL Monday 10* Top Play OVER 6.5 in Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs @ 7:38 ET - The Maple Leafs confidence is sky high after B2B wins. The goals keep flowing in this series. Tampa Bay realizes they need to be aggressive and really put down the hammer throughout like they did in the 7-3 win that opened this series up. After seeing Toronto score late in Game 3 to force OT where the Leafs went on to win, the Lightning know they must be relentless here. They need be aggressive on the attack and score plenty because the Leafs are showing they have plenty of mettle. That said, this one looks like another high-scoring game that should get to 7 or more goals. 5 of the 6 meetings between these clubs, including regular season, have totaled at least 7 goals. This one will too. The Lightning can not afford to head to Toronto down 3-1 in this series but, at the same time, the Maple Leafs are so tough to hold in check so another high-scoring game looms here. 10* OVER 6.5 in Tampa Bay |
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04-24-23 | Middlesbrough v. Luton Town OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 102 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
Rotation #200373: English League Championship Monday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 in Luton Town vs Middlesbrough @ 3 ET - Middlesbrough has been scoring a lot of goals of late but this is also a club that allows about twice as many goals on the road as they have at home this season. They are traveling here and facing the club that is just above them in the standings and this Luton Town club actually has allowed more goals at home than on the road this season. So this one sets up well for goals and we should see plenty here as the recent trending of Middlesbrough has been for very high-scoring matches. Luton Town is not as high-scoring as their opponents for this one but they are averaging scoring 1.8 goals per match their last 5 matches. Middlesbrough has seen 12 of last 14 matches total at least 3 goals! Those matches averaged 4 goals apiece and we only need 3 goals to be a winner here. 10* OVER 2.5 in Luton Town |
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04-24-23 | Petrolul 52 v. Voluntari OVER 2 | Top | 2-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
Rotation #206925: Romania Liga 1 Monday 10* Top Play OVER 2 in FC Voluntari vs Petrolul Ploiesti @ 1:30 ET - The value of an over 2 is big in Romania and I definitely look for 3 or more here but like the fact that 2 would be a push rather than a loss. 14 of last 17 FC Voluntari matches have totaled at least 2 goals. Those 14 matches have averaged 3 goals! Petrolul Ploiesti has seen 20 of last 27 matches total at least 2 goals. Those 20 matches have averaged 3 goals apiece. Petrolul Ploiesti had scored at least 1 goal in 6 of last 7 matches before being shutout at home in most recent match. They should respond here as they have scored at least 1 goal in 3 straight road matches. Of course you know that FC Voluntari is favored for a reason here. So you can see, given the above, there is reasoning behind why I am expecting a 2-1 final at the very least in this one. Neither club has had many losses of late so they are playing with plenty of confidence too as the defeat for Petrolul Ploiesti last week was a rare one. They had won 4 straight before that loss. Also, the hosts in this one are unbeaten last 8 matches! 10* OVER 2 in FC Voluntari |
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04-23-23 | Nuggets v. Wolves +145 | Top | 108-114 | Win | 145 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
NBA Sunday 10* Top Play Minnesota Timberwolves +145 vs Denver Nuggets @ 9:30 ET - The Wolves had one 6-game losing streak this season. That was the only time they had a losing streak more than 3 games. In fact, they were 7-0 the other 7 times they entered a game on a 3-game losing streak. So, for the season, the Timberwolves are 7-1 when entering a game on exactly a 3-game losing streak. That is exactly the situation here and they are at home and they are playing for professional pride and to not get swept out of the post-season. I look for this to all add up to an upset win for the home dog here! The Nuggets have won 4 straight games dating back to winning their regular season finale as well. Note that Denver only won a 5th straight game twice in seven chances when in this situation. Indeed Nuggets just 2-5 when entering a game on a winning streak of exactly 4 games. So the odds favor an upset here when you look at the history of both teams this season and I like the fact that Minnesota did a great job of getting to the free throw line in Game 3 but lost the game due to Denver having insanely good shooting from the field. That was completely the difference in that one. The Wolves, behind professional pride, find a way to get this win tonight and force Denver to be content with likely taking this series at home in Game Five as I just can not see, from what I have seen the last two games, this Wolves team being swept. There is not that big of a disparity between these teams as anyone who has watched Games 2 and 3 knows. 10* MINNESOTA +145 |
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04-23-23 | Oilers -154 v. Kings | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
NHL Sunday 10* Top Play Edmonton Oilers Money Line -155 @ Los Angeles Kings @ 9 ET - The Kings are up 2-1 in this series and on home ice and yet they are a sizable underdog here. Must be a mistake, right? Actually no it is not a mistake and the Oilers are the play here. This might be contrarian but it is what has served me well through the years and Edmonton deserves every bit of this price. Anyone who has watched this series knows the Oilers have been the better team. Yet somehow the Kings have a pair of OT wins and are leading this series 2-1. Edmonton is going to be ultra aggressive here and will not be denied and I look for them to dominate in this one. The Oilers will come out like they were shot out of a cannon and they will be relentless here. I like grabbing the stronger team off yet another undeserved loss and fully expect them to step up big in this game and tie up the series before it heads back to Canada. 10* EDMONTON -155 |
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04-23-23 | Mets v. Giants OVER 9 | Top | 4-5 | Push | 0 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
Sunday MLB 10* OVER 9 in San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets @ 7 ET - Wind blowing out again for this one and even though it is the Sunday "night" game on ESPN it starts at 4 PM local time in San Francisco. That means windy weather and cool, but not cold, conditions for this one. That said, note that Megill was 1-4 on the road in his rookie season of 2021, then had a 5.84 ERA on the road last year in 2022. This season he already has been hit harder in his two road starts compared to his home starts. Also, he is facing a hot Giants lineup. But the Mets have been really pounding the ball too as I noted in yesterday's write-up on this same play. Going over again here as the Giants have one of the worst bullpens in baseball and they could be called upon earlier here because Stripling is getting the call in this one as a starter. He has worked out of the pen this season too and is coming off a horrible spring training and a lot of those struggles have carried into his regular season form as well. More of the same here and, no matter who the starting pitchers are (take action), I like the over in this one. 10* OVER 9 in San Francisco |