Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-09-16 | Magic +7 v. Hornets | Top | 88-109 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
Southeast Divisional Game of the Month - NBA Game #701 Friday - 10* Top Play Orlando Magic (+) @ Charlotte Hornets @ 7:05 ET - The Magic are off of one of the worst performances as they lost by 30 points at Boston. That is the kind of performance that absolutely fires up a team for their next game and, keep in mind, Orlando had been playing very competitive basketball prior to the beatdown at the hands of the Celtics. The Magic had won and covered 4 of their 5 prior games. Also, looking further back, Orlando had gone 6-5 in their 11 prior games and the average margin of defeat in the 5 losses was just 4.2 points. The fact is that Orlando had been in every game their past 11 and I fully expect them to be in this one too after the embarrassing blowout loss at Boston. Note that Orlando is a perfect 3-0 ATS this season in road games with a posted total between 200 and 204.5 points. Also, the Magic failed to cover in their last visit to Charlotte but, prior to that, Orlando had covered each of their prior visits. This has been a road-dominated series at the betting window with the road team getting the cash 6 of the last 8 games. The Hornets are off of a double digit win but they pulled away late for the 10 point victory and the final score certainly is deceiving in terms of how the game truly played out. Charlotte is now off of back to back wins and covers but previously had covered only 2 of their 9 prior games. The Hornets only sank 34% of their shots against Detroit Wednesday. As a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points, Charlotte has gone just 5-8 ATS and they've also covered just 3 of 8 games against teams with a losing record this season. 10* Top Play ORLANDO MAGIC plus the points Friday |
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12-08-16 | Spurs v. Bulls +4.5 | Top | 91-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
RARE TNT Top - NBA Game #512 Thursday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Chicago Bulls (+) vs San Antonio Spurs @ 9:35 ET - The Spurs still get a ton of respect from the odds makers and the betting markets and are certainly still one of the top teams in the NBA. However, this team is clearly not the same team since Tim Duncan retired and Manu Ginoboli and Tony Parker arent' getting any younger. Also, coach Gregg Popovich has lost a little bit of his "fire" since Duncan retired and the result is that the Spurs just aren't dominating the way they use to. In fact their having to scratch and claw their way to many of their wins and now they're in the wrong place at the wrong time. The home team has swept the season series between the Bulls and Spurs each of the last two years and Chicago comes into this game fired up off of 3 straight SU and ATS losses. This was preceded by an 8-2 ATS run for the Bulls. For the Spurs, they are off of a rare big win (by 14 at Minnesota) Tuesday as they had previously gone just 3-8 ATS in their 11 prior games. With San Antonio off of a big double digit win and Chicago off of three straight losses, look for the Bulls to be the hungrier team here. Chicago has gone 9-4 SU (and 10-3 ATS) the last 3 seasons when they enter a game on a losing streak of 3 games or more. 10* Top Play CHICAGO BULLS plus the points Thursday night |
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12-08-16 | Predators v. Stars +110 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 110 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
NHL Game #15 Thursday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Dallas Stars Money Line (+) vs Nashville Predators @ 8:35 ET - Certainly Dallas has been hurt by injuries but that hasn't stopped them from putting up a fight. The Stars have outshot three of their last four opponents by a double digit margin! Dallas also is getting stellar goaltending from Kari Lehtonen of late as he's been rock solid in his last 3 starts. The issue for the Stars has been generating enough offense but they've certainly been generating opportunities and they will start to cash those in. The Stars have revenge on their minds here as they lost 5-2 at Nashville two weeks ago. Dallas outshot the Preds 35 to 21 in that game but fell well short on the scoreboard. It is time for a little payback and home ice is likely to have a huge impact in this one. The Predators have lost 6 of 7 road games with a posted total of 5.5 goals this season. The Preds are off of a 4-3 win over Colorado Tuesday but that was at home. Nashville has lost 7 of 8 this season when they are off of a game where they scored 4 goals or more. The last 3 seasons combined in that situation, the Predators have lost 39 of 59. Also, the Preds have lost 25 of their 36 road games with a posted total of 5.5 goals the past three seasons combined. Even with all their injury issues the Stars have won 6 of 9 home games with a posted total of 5.5 goals this season and they've won 48 of 82 home games with a posted total of 5.5 goals the past three seasons combined. The Stars have won 19 of 29 the past three seasons when they are off of game where they were held to 1 goal or less. 10* Top Play DALLAS STARS money line Thursday night |
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12-08-16 | Raiders +3 v. Chiefs | Top | 13-21 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
RARE Thursday Top - NFL Game #101 Thursday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Oakland Raiders (+) @ Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:25 ET - The Chiefs continue to win in amazing ways as they won at Atlanta last week despite the Falcons having 32 first downs compared to just 17 for Kansas City. This is a revenge game for Oakland as they lost at home to the Chiefs 26-10 back in mid-October. The Raiders come into this game off of a 38-24 home win versus the Bills but the road team is still 9-2 ATS in Oakland's games this season and my money is on the road dog in this one tonight. The Chiefs are an ugly 3-15 ATS as a home favorite in divisional action. The Raiders are on a 22-8 ATS run as a road dog in divisional action. In games this season where the Oakland line is anywhere between -3 and +3 they have gone 7-1 ATS. Also, in road games with a posted total in a range of 45.5 to 49 points the past three seasons, the Raiders have gone 7-1 ATS. In road games this season Oakland is 5-0 ATS and in their games against teams with a winning record this season the Raiders are 4-0 ATS. The Chiefs are 1-3 ATS at home this season and 1-3 ATS in home games with a posted total in a range of 45.5 to 49 points the past three seasons. Even though the Kansas City defense looks strong based on points allowed this season, keep in mind their yardage allowed ranks them just as low as the Raiders. That said, no true D edge to KC in this one and the edge on offense clearly belongs to Oakland as the Raiders are stronger on the ground and through the air in comparison with the Chiefs. Revenge time in a key AFC West showdown. 10* Top Play OAKLAND RAIDERS plus the points Thursday night |
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12-07-16 | Bruins +130 v. Capitals | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
TV Game of the Week - NHL Game #53 Wednesday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Boston Bruins Money Line (+) @ Washington Capitals @ 8:05 ET - No team in the NHL has more road wins (8) than Boston and I expect the "road warriors" to be at it again on Wednesday night in Washington. The Bruins have outshot their opponent by 20 shots or more in 3 of their last 7 road games. That's impressive production on the road and certainly Boston will be highly motivated facing the Capitals because Washington has swept the season series with the Bruins each of the past two seasons. Boston comes into this one on a 3-game winning streak while the Capitals are off of a fortunate OT win in a game they never led. The Caps just aren't playing that well right now as they had lost 3 straight (and 6 of their last 10) before that tight win versus Buffalo. Washington is facing a much tougher opponent than the Sabres tonight and I'll take advantage of the underdog line value here as the Bruins improve to 4-0 in the month of December. The Bruins have gone 8-3 in Tuukka Rask's 11 road starts this season as he's compiled an incredible .950 save percentage away from home. The Capitals have lost 3 of the last 4 starts that Braden Holtby has made! 10* Top Play BOSTON BRUINS money line Wednesday evening on the NBC Sports Network |
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12-07-16 | Nuggets -4.5 v. Nets | Top | 111-116 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
Top Play Annihilation - NBA Game #705 Wednesday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (-) @ Brooklyn Nets @ 7:35 ET - The Nets have lost 10 of their last 11 games. The key thing about Brooklyn is they often don't just lose, they get annihilated. 7 of the Nets 10 losses have come by a margin of at least 17 points which is actually quite incredible when you think about it. They're just not even in a lot of their games. All 10 of the losses during this 1-10 stretch have come by at least 5 points which is what makes Denver even a more attractive play here since they are a short favorite of less than 5 points at the time of this posting. The Nuggets have done well as travelers for their backers as Denver is 8-2 ATS away from home this season! Also, the Nuggets have fared particularly well in games that are projected to be high-scoring as they are 4-0 ATS this season in road games with a posted total of 210 or more. This total is well above that as the Nets are one of the worst defensive clubs in the league. Denver is also a perfect 4-0 ATS against Atlantic Division opponents this season. The Nuggets results of late don't look that great but keep in mind that was against some tough opponents. They have taken care of business against weaker foes like recent road games at Philadelphia and Phoenix. The last key here to this pick is that the Nets have swept the home and home season series from the Nuggets each of the past two seasons and last year's two Brooklyn wins each came by only a single point. Teams don't forget tight losses like that and that ensures proper focus from the road fave here and a big revenge win can be expected. 10* Top Play DENVER NUGGETS minus the short number Wednesday evening |
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12-06-16 | Flames +117 v. Stars | Top | 2-1 | Win | 117 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
No Doubt Blowout Rout - NHL Game #15 Tuesday - 10* Top Play Calgary Flames Money Line (+) @ Dallas Stars @ 8:35 ET - The Flames are hot right now with 3 straight wins and 8 victories in their last 12 games. After a homestand where Calgary won all 3 games by a combined score of 14 to 5, the Flames are fully focused on keeping the momentum going on this quick 2-game road swing. The mini-road trip starts in Dallas where Calgary has won in 2 of its last 3 visits but this is a double revenge spot for the Flames. Not only did the Stars beat them in Calgary 4 weeks ago, they also beat them in their last visit to the Big D. That said, the Flames have a little extra motivation here and Calgary has won 5 of 7 this season when playing with home loss revenge. The Flames also have won 3 of 4 this season when they are off of a win by a multiple goal margin so look for them to stay hot here. As for Dallas, they are off of a 3-0 win at Colorado but previously had lost 7 of their last 10 games. The Stars continue to be dealing with injury issues and now Patrick Sharp is out for an indefinite period with a concussion. Dallas forwards continue to be impacted by the injury "bug" and the Stars are averaging just 2.2 goals per game in their last 10 games. They simply have not been the same high-flying team they once were and, right now, Calgary is firing on all cylinders and the Flames are highly motivated here. That makes for a very dangerous dog and Dallas has lost 10 of 13 this season when off of a divisional game! Not only that, the Stars have another big divisional game on deck as Nashville is up next. 10* Top Play on the CALGARY FLAMES on the money line Tuesday |
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12-06-16 | Knicks v. Heat OVER 204 | Top | 114-103 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
Total of the Month - NBA Game #505/506 Tuesday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play OVER the total in Miami Heat vs New York Knicks @ 7:35 ET - This series has been an "under" series historically. That said, why the big total posted on this game? Exactly! The big total is absolutely justified. Knicks games are averaging 211 points this season and they should dictate the tempo in this game. They are the healthier team, they come into this match-up having won 8 of their last 11, but they are weak when it comes to interior defense. That means a big game in the paint from Miami's Hassan Whiteside can absolutely be expected here. The over is "only" 4-2 in the Knicks last 6 road games but the two unders in that stretch averaged 206 points a game. In other words, New York simply doesn't get involved in low-scoring games. This is especially true on the road where they try to push the pace and dictate the tempo so as to not fall into complacency (as can sometimes happen at home). The Heat are off of a loss that stayed under the total but 3 of their prior 4 games went over the total and Miami averaged 107 points per game but allowed 107.5 points per game during that 4-game stretch. Look for more of the same here in game that should cruise over the total by double digits. The over is 3-1 this season in New York games against Southeast Division opponents. Also, the past 3 seasons combined, the over is 5-2 when the Knicks enter a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more. 10* OVER the total in Miami Tuesday |
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12-06-16 | Old Dominion +10.5 v. Rhode Island | Top | 39-51 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
Contrarian Top Play - CBB Game #527 Tuesday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Old Dominion Monarchs (+) @ Rhode Island Rams @ 7 ET - Old Dominion is known for playing solid defense and crashing the boards. Those two variables tend to make the Monarchs a dangerous dog and, in this case, Old Dominion is the benefactor of too many points. The Rams are off of a loss at Providence Saturday and that is inflating this line as Rhode Island is in a bounce back spot here. The problem with the "bounce back" angle on the Rams here is the fact that the Friars are a huge rival of theirs and to again lose (and it was a tight loss) to their in-state rival is a bitter pill to swallow. Rhode Island will be doing good just to muster enough energy just to win this game, let alone cover it, after they truly "gave it their all" Saturday at Providence. Keep in mind the Rams are on a 1-5 ATS run as they've only gone 3-3 SU in their last 6 games and, by the way, Rhode Island did not have a single win by more than 9 points in this stretch and the average margin of those 6 games was just 6 points. Old Dominion is allowing only 58.6 points per game this season and their two losses were to LSU and Louisville. Both defeats came by only 6 points and they were a huge dog against the Cardinals. The Monarchs won't be intimidated here - just like they weren't against Louisville) and Rhode Island is not only off of the tough loss to the Friars, they also have a solid 7-1 Houston team on deck. This is a definite flat spot in the schedule for the Rams. Yes, I know Old Dominion beat Rhode Island last year so there is a revenge factor here for the Rams but, trust me, Saturday's game meant a ton to Rhode Island and they are a deflated team which makes it difficult to cover a big spread. Even if the Rams win here it will likely be a tight win. Look for Rhode Island to drop to 4-10 ATS in Tuesday games while the Monarchs improve to a perfect 5-0 ATS as an underdog. 10* Top Play OLD DOMINION MONARCHS plus the big points Tuesday. |
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12-05-16 | Senators v. Penguins OVER 5.5 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 121 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - NHL Game #51/52 Monday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Penguins vs Ottawa Senators @ 7:05 ET - The Penguins are on a 7-0 run to the over. Not only that but all 7 games have totaled at least 7 goals so it is not like these games are "sneaking" over the total. Also, the Pens are off of a huge win versus Detroit where they rallied for 4 goals in the 3rd period to come back from a 3-1 deficit. That is the type of win that a team can build on and right now the Penguins are "feeling it" as they're potting big goals on a regular basis. When Pittsburgh is on a roll like this they generally don't slow down and the over is 8-1 this season when they are off of a game where they scored 4 goals or more. I realize the Senators are not the same high-scoring style of hockey club that the Pens are but they have scored at least 2 goals in 7 straight games and, in fact, have averaged 2.7 goals per game in those 7 games. Look for a 4-3 type game here as the Penguins games continue their recent high-scoring trend. I am well aware of Craig Anderson possibly being back in goal tonight for the Senators but he's been dealing with a very tough situation as his wife is battling cancer. Anderson, possibly not 100% focused on the task at hand, and/or Mike Condon (Pens know him well as he started this season with him) will not be able to stop the high-flying Penguins the way they are playing right now. 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh |
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12-04-16 | Bowling Green v. Cincinnati OVER 129.5 | Top | 56-85 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
Top Play - CBB Game #517/518 Sunday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cincinnati Bearcats vs Bowling Green Falcons @ 8 ET - Both these teams have been "under" teams this season but that is helping to give us some solid line value on the over in this match-up. That's because of the situational edges here that will play a key factor in this one. The Bearcats are known for their solid defense but it's easy for them to overlook a weak MAC team in this particular spot because Cincinnati is off of a hard-fought low-scoring win over Iowa State and they have a big game with Butler on deck. That said, it will be hard for the Cats to get excited about defensive intensity in this one. As for the Falcons, they do like to play at a fast tempo and their offense got a boost of confidence with averaging 88 points per game in their last 2 games. Those were non-lined contests but facing weaker foes helped Bowling Green get their offense going and, as for the other end of the floor, the Falcons have allowed an average of 76 points per game in their 5 lined games. Cincinnati has already eclipsed the 83 point mark twice this season against weaker competition and the Bearcats did put up 83 when they faced the Falcons last year. Based on spread on this game and the key factors relating to the Cats being willing to just run and gun with the Falcons quite a bit in this one, this should play out as an 83 to 63 type game which puts it well over the total. Bowling Green is a fantastic 10-2 to the over when they are off of a game where they allowed 60 points or less. 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cincinnati |
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12-04-16 | Bucs v. Chargers -3.5 | Top | 28-21 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
Non-Conf Game of the Month - NFL Game #370 Sunday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play San Diego Chargers (-) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 4:25 ET - Make no mistake about it, that was a huge win for the Bucs last week as they beat Seattle. However, it's important to consider that the Seahawks were clearly flat for that game. Not only were the Hawks off of a big win over the Eagles (and upset of the Patriots the prior week), they also had a huge game on deck. Seattle was clearly looking ahead to their game this week (an opportunity for playoff revenge) against Carolina. With that said, one can't totally take everything away from the Buccaneers win over the Seahawks last week but, the point is, one should definitely keep it in perspective. Now Tampa Bay is clearly the one that is in a flat spot here as they are off of a huge upset win at home and now had to travel coast to coast to take on a tough Chargers team that is clearly better than their 5-6 record on the season. San Diego has had some tough, tight losses so many are reluctant to back them and that is helping to give late season line value to the Bolts in a spot like this as the line has held at 3.5 in most spots. While both teams have been "up and down" on defense this season, the offensive edge in this match-up clearly belongs to Philip Rivers and company and the Chargers have averaged 32 points per game at home this season while the Bucs are averaging only 21.6 points per game on the road this year. San Diego is 4-1 ATS in their games against teams with a winning record this season and Tampa Bay's recent "surge" on defense has been helped by catching Seattle in a flat spot (and Seahawks offense has struggled at times this season) and facing the the Chiefs and Bears (both have struggled on offense this season). Prior to that, the Bucs allowed 73 points in their two prior games (against Oakland and Atlanta) and those games were in Tampa Bay. In other words, don't be surprised if the Chargers put up a bunch of points on the over-rated Bucs Sunday! 10* Top Play SAN DIEGO CHARGERS |
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12-04-16 | Lions v. Saints OVER 52 | Top | 28-13 | Loss | -114 | 5 h 56 m | Show |
Total of the Week - NFL Game #359/360 Sunday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play OVER the total in New Orleans Saints vs Detroit Lions @ 1 ET - This total has dropped from as high as a 54 down to as low as a 52 and this is offering exceptional line value with the over. I completely understand the line move because the Lions have actually stayed under the total in 5 straight games. However, Detroit's last 4 games have been against Houston, Jacksonville, and Minnesota (twice). That means they have faced a top 5 defense (based on yards allowed) in 4 straight games! Now the Lions get to take advantage of facing one of the worst defenses in the league as they take on the Saints. Of course the problem for Detroit is they are unlikely to stop the high-powered attack of New Orleans in the Superdome. At home this season the Saints are averaging 34 points and 468 yards per game! With this line at 7, my expectation is a 35-28 (or 34-27) type game here and that's why the over is my play here. Note that the over is 4-1 this season (and 17-9 the last 3 seasons) when New Orleans is a favorite. Also, in Saints home games with a posted total of 49.5 or more, the over is a long-term 34-19. In their Thanksgiving Day win over the Vikings, the Lions allowed only 13 points which is the lowest point total they've allowed all season. Of course the Vikes offense is putrid and this opens up another key stat too. The Lions are 12-1 to the over when they are off of a game where they allowed 13 points or less. This is the 1st time it's happened this season and I'll take advantage as Detroit goes from facing one of the league's best defenses to facing one of its worst. 10* Top Play OVER in New Orleans |
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12-03-16 | Bulls -3 v. Mavs | Top | 82-107 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
Top Play Annihilation - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Game #711 Saturday - 10* Top Play Chicago Bulls (-) @ Dallas Mavericks @ 8:35 ET - This line went all the way from an opener of -7 down to as low as a -3 and this is offering tremendous line value on the Bulls. Yes I know Chicago is off of a big win at Cleveland and this is a back to back spot. However, they did lose BOTH games with the Mavericks last season so a little payback is on order tonight. Even though Wade is out for the Bulls, the Mavs are still without Nowitzki. Also, we're still talking about a Dallas team that is only 3-15 on the season and only 1 of their 18 games has been decided by less than 5 points! In other words, the odds are certainly in our favor that the Bulls not only win this game but also win it by 5 points or more. Chicago is currently on a red hot 8-2 ATS run and they've covered 2 of 3 this season when off of an upset win as an underdog while Dallas is 2-5 ATS when off of a loss by double digits. In other words, a Mavericks bounce back here is unlikely and that is why I expect the Bulls to get their revenge even though they are off of the big win over the Cavs. 10* Top Play CHICAGO BULLS |
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12-03-16 | Penn State +3 v. Wisconsin | Top | 38-31 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
Big Ten Game of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Game #333 Saturday - 10* Top Play Penn State Nittany Lions (+) vs Wisconsin Badgers in Big Ten Championship Game @ Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN @ 8 ET - Amazingly this is already the 4th time the Badgers have been in the Big Ten Championship Game and this is only the 6th such game as these started in 2011. The Nittany Lions are full of hunger as this is their first appearance ever in this game. The favorite has only gone 1-4 ATS in these games and I like the value here with the Nittany Lions (the better team in my opinion) getting a full field goal on a neutral field. Yes the Badgers have the better defense but Penn State certainly has the better offense and they are on fire and full of momentum right now. PSU has won 8 straight games and their offense has averaged 46.4 points per game in their last 5 games. The Badgers have won 6 straight games but their offense has been held to 23 points or less in 7 of their 12 games this season. The Nittany Lions defense has held 3 of their last 4 opponents to 14 points or less - an average of 8.7 points per game in those 3 games. The big win over Ohio State earlier this season gives Penn State the confidence to take this game over the Badgers. Penn State's rushing defense has been very strong the last 5 games with an average of only 68.8 yards allowed per game! That should help force the Badgers to the air in this one and Wiscy's passing attack has averaged only 115.4 passing yards per game their last 5 games. Look for the Lions to win this one through the air as that aspect of the PSU offense has gotten stronger as the season has gone on. The Nittany Lions are averaging 284.4 passing yards per game their last 5 games. 10* Top Play PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS |
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12-03-16 | Akron +14.5 v. Creighton | Top | 70-82 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
Top Ten Top Play - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Game #787 Saturday - 10* Top Play Akron Zips (+) @ Creighton Blue Jays @ 8 ET - The Blue Jays are off to such a fantastic start (7-0 SU, 6-1 ATS, 46.5% 3-pointers) that the odds makers have had to over-adjust. The result is fantastic line value in this spot. Akron certainly has played a weaker schedule than has Creighton. However, the Zips were one of the top teams in the MAC last season and they will be again this season. We are getting extra line value here because, even though Akron is 6-1 SU on the season they are only 1-3 ATS. The fact is that the Zips match up very well with the Blue Jays and that means this game is likely to play out much closer than many are expecting. Akron, like Creighton, loves the 3-ball. The Zips, like the Blue Jays have great size in the paint. Also, both teams have deep rotations. The result will be a very evenly matched contest and the kicker is that Creighton has a big game with in-state rival Nebraska on deck while Akron has an unexciting match-up with Coppin State up next. The result will be the Zips definitely "leaving it all on the floor" tonight and they're excited about this opportunity against a Top Ten and I expect them to make the most of it. Creighton snuck out a cover over Buffalo Tuesday but they face a much tougher MAC team in this match-up and the Blue Jays are simply over-priced here. 10* Top Play AKRON ZIPS |
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12-02-16 | Canadiens +119 v. Sharks | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
Game of the Week: Rickenbach NHL Game #3 Friday - 10* Top Play Montreal Canadiens Money Line (+) @ San Jose Sharks @ 10:35 ET - The Sharks will be the popular choice here since they have the home ice edge but they are off of a divisional win over the rival Kings and I expect the Canadiens to be the much hungrier team tonight. Montreal lost both match-ups (by a combined score of 9-3 last season!) so they have payback on their minds here. Also, unlike San Jose, the Habs are coming into this game off of a loss as they suffered a 2-1 defeat at Anaheim on Tuesday. Montreal is expected to have Carey Price in between the pipes tonight and they are 13-3 in his 16 starts this season. The Sharks will counter with Martin Jones but he has won only 6 of his 10 non-conference starts this season. San Jose, the past 3 seasons combined, has lost 34 of 63 home games with a posted total of 5 goals or less and that has cost their backers $27,200 at $1,000 per game in this situation! These are two of the top clubs in the league and the value here is with the hungry, revenge-seeking underdog. 10* Top Play MONTREAL CANADIENS on the money line Friday |
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12-02-16 | Colorado +7.5 v. Washington | Top | 10-41 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
PAC-12 Championship Best Bet - Rickenbach CFB Game #305 Friday - 10* Top Play Colorado Buffaloes (+) vs Washington Huskies @ Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, CA @ 9 ET - It is has been an amazing season for both of these teams but, since it wasn't expected for the Buffaloes and was expected for the Huskies, Colorado is clearly being under-rated in this match-up with Washington for the PAC-12 Championship. The Buffaloes are a TD+ underdog even though these teams are statistically very nearly equal and even though Colorado played arguably the tougher schedule. As the favorite, all the pressure is on the Huskies in this one and I expect the Buffaloes to be the more relaxed team and the result will be Colorado playing their "A game" in this one which certainly should be enough for at least the cover. Much has changed since the last time these two teams met but it is still noteworthy that the 15 point margin of victory for Washington also is help influencing market perception for this one and, keep in mind, the Huskies were actually outgained by the Buffaloes in that game! Washington is off of a big blowout win over rival Washington State in the battle for the Apple Cup last week. However, prior to that win the Huskies had failed to cover 6 of their last 9. The Buffaloes are off of a non-covering win versus Utah but previously had cover 10 of 11 games on the season. Also, Colorado is a perfect 4-0 ATS this season as an underdog. Last but certainly not least, here is another stat you will like. This line is currently as high as an 8 in some spots and when the Huskies are favored by 8 points or more against a team with a winning record after Game 5 of a season, Washington has gone 0-12 ATS (including 0-2 ATS this season). The Huskies already suffered an ATS loss in this role against Utah this season and they also suffered a SU and ATS loss in this role against USC as well. They are in for a dogfight here with a fired up Buffaloes team that is a very confident punch and would love nothing more than to spoil any playoff hopes the Huskies had. 10* COLORADO BUFFALOES plus the big points on Friday night |
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12-01-16 | Cowboys v. Vikings +3 | Top | 17-15 | Win | 107 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL Game #302 Thursday - 10* Top Play Minnesota Vikings (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 8:25 ET - The Cowboys bubble is about to burst and I am going to be along for the ride. Their long ATS streak (some miracle covers in there for sure) finally ended on Thanksgiving Day and now I expect their SU winning streak to end this Thursday. Certainly I will grab the available points with the Vikings but I fully expect the outright win. The Cowboys defense ranks 6th for points allowed but 20th for yardage allowed. Stating that differently, the Dallas defense has been lucky! No two ways about it the Cowboys weakness is their defense and the Boys were outgained by a 505-353 margin in last week's non-covering win over the Redskins. The Vikings defense ranks #3 for yardage and #2 for points this season. Minnesota's D is going to "bring it" on Thursday night after hearing all week about the Cowboys and how great of a team they are. The Vikes are relishing this opportunity to get after Dak Prescott and to also stuff Ezekiel Elliott. The Cowboys are one of the worst teams in the league at getting pressure on the quarterback and, when Sam Bradford is not pressured, the Vikings QB can run a decent offense for Minnesota. Certainly they can get the job done against an over-confident and porous Dallas D that is one of the worst in the league against the pass. The Vikes are on a 9-3 ATS run as a home dog and are fired up after the way they lost at Detroit on Thanksgiving Day with a late INT by Bradford in the wrong end of the field. It was an egregious error that he and the Vikes want to atone for here. Dallas is on a 1-6 ATS run in Thursday games. Minnesota is 11-3 ATS when off of a divisional game. The Vikings are also 12-4 ATS when they are a dog facing a team with a winning record. The Vikes are also 13-2 ATS as dogs of less than 6 points when facing a team that is off of a SU win. 10* Top Play MINNESOTA VIKINGS Thursday Night |
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12-01-16 | Lightning +130 v. Blues | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
Rickenbach NHL Game #63 Thursday - 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Lightning Money Line (+) @ St Louis Blues @ 8:05 ET - The Lightning have lost 3 straight games and have certainly been impacted by some injury issues. However, even though centerman Steven Stamkos is going to be out for months, there is a chance that key defenseman Anton Stralman is going to play tonight at St Louis. This will undoubtedly give the Bolts a boost and they don't want to go winless on this road trip. Tampa Bay's next game is at home versus Washington but there is no lookahead here because the Bolts know they can't afford to look ahead when they need a win to get back on track before getting back into divisional action. Keep in mind, the Blues certainly have their full attention too because St Louis not only swept them last season, they swept them the prior season as well. The key to the value is the Lightning tonight catch the Blues off of a key win over Dallas (the same team they faced in last spring's post-season battle). Off of a big win and now facing a non-conference foe, don't be surprised if St Louis comes out a little flat in this game. The Blues have had a tendency to show some rust when off of 2 days rest. They've won 3 of 7 in this situation this season but the four losses have come by a combined score of 13 to 3 and St Louis was a sizable favorite in 3 of those 4 defeats. Look for this trend to continue here as they again get throttled as rested, sizable fave against a hungrier foe. 10* TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING money line Thursday |
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11-30-16 | UC-Irvine +3.5 v. Santa Clara | Top | 58-55 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
Top Play Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #577 Wednesday - 10* Top Play Cal-Irvine Anteaters (+) @ Santa Clara Broncos @ 10 ET - This line has moved from as low as a 1 on Santa Clara all the way up to where even a few postings at 4 were popping up. In any event, this line move has opened up some great line value on UC-Irvine. The Anteaters are looking to move to 4-0 in this series and the Broncos are over-valued. Even though both teams are 3-4 on the season, Cal-Irvine has played the tougher overall schedule. Also, even though Anteaters are without star guard Luke Nelson, others have certainly picked up the slack in his absence. The injury to KJ Feagin of the Broncos might be the bigger story here anyway. He was a key for the Broncos coming into the season as the top point guard and off of a surprisingly strong freshman campaign. Though new coach Herb Sendek has an impressive resume and will do a great job at Santa Clara, it always takes time to get the right pieces in place and, right now, he's just trying to manage some improvement on a team that lost 20 games last season. UC-Irvine went 28-10 last season and, though they lost a lot of key contributors from last season's team, they did return a number of key reserves plus they are getting a boost with the newcomers that coach Russell Turner brought in. The big edge the Anteaters have here is in the paint and the Broncos are known for their struggles with interior defense and rebounding in recent years. That weakness will again be a glaring one in tonight's game as I expect Santa Clara to drop their 4th straight in this series. The Anteaters are 19-8 ATS in road games with a posted total in a range of 120 to 129.5 points. The Broncos are 1-4 ATS (and SU!) as a home fave of 3 points or less and that is where this line has settled out. 10* Top Play CAL-IRVINE |
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11-30-16 | Knicks v. Wolves OVER 211.5 | Top | 106-104 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA Game #509/510 Wednesday - 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Timberwolves vs New York Knicks @ 8:05 ET - Both of these teams are known for subpar defense and with each team coming off of an off-day yesterday they have fresh legs ready to push the pace on offense in this one Wednesday. The Timberwolves have allowed at least 50.6% from the field and at least 112 points in 3 of their last 4 games. The Knicks have allowed an average of 107 points per game in their last 7 games. New York has been happy to push the pace (95.5 field goal attempts per game in their last 4 games). Minnesota also has pushed the pace well with 85.4 shot attempts per game in their last 5 games. Each of the Knicks last 3 road games have resulted in overs. 4 of the Timberwolves last 6 home games have resulted in overs. The over is 5-2 the last 7 when Minny is off of a game where they allowed 105 points or more. The over is 20-13 when the T-wolves are off of a divisional game. As a road dog of 3.5 to 6 points, the Knicks are 13-8 to the over the past 3 seasons combined. Look for more of the same tonight as these teams get into another high-scoring shootout as they have both been playing particularly weak defense of late. 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota |
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11-30-16 | Penguins v. Islanders OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 106 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
Top Play Total Smash - Rickenbach NHL Game #1/2 Wednesday - 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Islanders vs Pittsburgh Penguins @ 8:05 ET - The Penguins are 3-0 to the over this season when they enter a game off of 2 or more days of rest. Certainly they have fresh legs here as they have been off for 3 days since they beat New Jersey 4-3 in the shootout Saturday. The Pens are facing an Islanders team that has revenge on their minds as Pittsburgh beat them 3-2 earlier this season. Whether the Isles get that revenge or not remains to be seen but, one thing is for certain, this should be a highly entertaining game with plenty of offense. The Penguins have played 8 divisional games so far this season and, so far, only 1 has stayed under the total. Not only do they have the aformentioned 3-0 OVER angle going tonight, the over is also a perfect 4-0 in the Penguins last 4 games. The Islanders have some injuries to their blue line and that won't help them slow down Sidney Crosby and company as the Penguins are anxious to get back in play and will be flying all over the ice tonight. The Isles are off of a win where they allowed just 1 goal and the only other time they allowed just 1 goal this season they got blasted 6-1 in their next game. The last 3 time the Islanders have allowed 2 goals or less they've allowed at least 4 goals in their next game every single time. Look for a wild one at the Barclays Center tonight. 10* Top Play OVER the total in the New York Islanders game |
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11-28-16 | Butler v. Utah OVER 142 | Top | 68-59 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #523/524 Monday - 10* Top Play OVER the total in Utah Utes vs Butler Bulldogs @ 9 ET - Both teams are undefeated as the Bulldogs are 6-0 and the Utes are 4-0 so far this season. What I like about that is that oftentimes winning streaks will mask defensive shortcomings. When a team is winning you feel like you can do no wrong no matter how you're playing and the key here is that both teams are full of confidence on the offensive end too. Utah has shot 49.8% from the field this season and averaged 89 points per game while Butler has shot 50% from the field and averaged 80.2 points per game game so far this season. The Utes have great numbers on defense but, keep in mind, they have played a super easy schedule. The toughest 'test' so far for Utah was against Cal-Riverside Friday and the Utes did allow 67 points in that game. The Bulldogs are going to give the Utes defense an even tougher test but Butler will also find that Utah is capable of big scoring runs at home. Both teams are playing with so much confidence offensively that there will be no reluctance to push the tempo and to take shots early in the shot clock. I expect the pace of this game to therefore be very conducive to a solid over. There is an infusion of youth and new talent for each of these teams and that means defensive breakdowns when facing guys who are strong off of the dribble and can create open looks for others. The over is 9-3 in Utah's November games the past 3 seasons combined and the Utes are also 18-9 to the over in non-conference games with a posted O/U the last 3 seasons. Look for more of the same tonight as Butler's productivity on offense has been impressive this season but the Utes, at home, will hang right with the Bulldogs all the way through this one. The result is a high-scoring, up-tempo affair. 10* Top Play OVER the total in Utah |
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11-28-16 | Jazz v. Wolves +2.5 | Top | 112-103 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
THE Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #510 Monday - 10* Top Play Minnesota Timberwolves (+) vs Utah Jazz @ 8:05 ET - This line has gone from a pick'em to a -2.5 with Utah and that is adding to the value here with home dog Minnesota. The Timberwolves will be ultra hungry tonight as they are off of a loss at Golden State Saturday and also have triple revenge against the division rival Jazz as they lost each of the final 3 meetings last season. Minny is happy to be back home where they have been a much tougher team. Though the T-wolves are only 3-4 at home, all 3 wins came by at least a 24 point margin while 3 of their 4 home losses came by 7 points or less. Minnesota appears to be catching Utah at the right time to exact revenge. The Jazz are off of back to back win and covers but this has happened 3 times already this season and, every single time, Utah has lost their next game and failed to cover (an 0-3 SU and ATS mark this season in this situation). As you would expect with a young team, the Timberwolves tend to perform better when they are at home with the support of the home fans. As for the Jazz, they are playing with two days of rest here but sometimes rest can lead to rust and, in fact, Utah has failed to cover 20 of the last 32 times they have entered a game with 2 days of rest between games. The home team has won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these teams and those 3 home wins each came by at least 13 points. Look for "home cooking" to once again be the key in this one and I'll gladly fade the early line move here. 10* Top Play MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES |
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11-28-16 | Stars v. Blues OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 120 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach NHL Game #3/4 Monday - 10* Top Play OVER the total in St Louis Blues vs Dallas Stars @ 8:05 ET - This total is a 5.5 so we are getting the over at solid plus money and there is great line value here because St Louis has been scoring goals like crazy since they made some changes to their line combinations. The Blues have averaged 3.6 goals per game in their last 7 games. They now host a Stars team that they eliminated from the post-season last year. Dallas got some measure of revenge with a 6-2 home win early this month but you can bet the Stars are still going to "bring it" tonight in terms of another intense effort getting plenty of pucks on net. These teams have combined for 44 goals in their last 7 meetings (an average of 6.3 per game) and I expect another wild one tonight. The over is 5-1 in the last 6 road games for the Stars while the Blues went a perfect 3-0 to the over in their games last week. Blues opponents are a solid 3 of 12 (25%) on the power play in recent games while St Louis is on a solid 8 of 22 (36%) power play stretch. With some "rough stuff" expected in this rivalry game tonight don't be surprised if there are more power play opportunities than usual in this one and that could also help push this one over the total. There have been only 33 unders in the Stars last 83 divisional games. Also, the over is on a 48-34 run in Dallas road games with a posted total of 5.5 goals. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in St Louis |
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11-27-16 | Chiefs v. Broncos -3 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
Sunday Night Game of the Year - Rickenbach NFL Game #272 Sunday - 10* Top Play Denver Broncos (-) vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:30 ET - The Chiefs are not nearly as good as their record shows. In fact, I am kicking myself a bit for not playing against them last week but I felt so strongly about this fantastic situation that was coming up that I decided to hold off. But the fact is that, of the 32 NFL teams, the Chiefs rank a solid 5th for points allowed but 25th for yardage allowed. As you can see from those numbers, the Kansas City defense has been fortunate - to put it mildly! I expect the fade that started with last week's home loss to Tampa Bay (KC was outgained by nearly 100 yards) to continue through the remainder of this season. The Chiefs are taking on a Denver defense that ranks 5th in the league for yardage allowed and also the Broncos are well-rested as they are off of their bye week last week. To top it off - in terms of how strong this situation is - Denver also big-time revenge for the home loss to the Chiefs last November. The Broncos now will be facing Kansas City twice in a span of 5 weeks but they had to wait over a year to get this opportunity at revenge. The Broncos are known for dominating the Chiefs and had won 7 straight in the series (average margin of victory was 9 points) before last year's November home loss to Kansas City. The Broncos are 18-4 ATS when playing with at least 2 weeks of rest between games. The Chiefs are 1-9 ATS when they are off of an outright loss as a favorite and are then facing an opponent with revenge. That puts a 27-5 ATS (84%) mark in favor of the home fave in this one. The Broncos have been able to heal up over the bye week while the Chiefs have some significant injuries on both sides of the ball that are impacting them for this game. Look for a home rout in this one as the revenge angle is a big one here. 10* Top Play DENVER BRONCOS minus the points on Sunday night |
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11-27-16 | Ottawa v. Calgary OVER 54.5 | Top | 33-39 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
Grey Cup Best Bet - Rickenbach CFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Ottawa Redblacks vs Calgary Stampeders @ 7 ET - Not going to go into great length here. Calgary's offense is tough to stop and was firing on all cylinders in last week's annihilation of the BC Lions. The Stampeders put up 42 points in that game and have one of the most dangerous offenses in the league. However, I do expect the Redblacks to "hang around" in this game as they were in the Grey Cup last year and lost which is an experience that will serve them well here. However, the Ottawa defense is not going to stop the Stampeders and that means the Redblacks offense is going to have to keep them in this game. They should be able to do just that. Ottawa put up 35 points last week in a revenge game (against Edmonton) from last year's Grey Cup battle. Off of that revenging win, the defense may fall a little flat here for the Redblacks and I see this one being a game featuring plenty of scoring opportunities as a result. The over is 6-1 in Ottawa's games this season where they are an underdog. Also, the over is 5-1 (compared to the closing number) in 5 of the last 6 meetings between the Redblacks and Stampeders. 10* Top Play OVER the total in the Grey Cup on Sunday evening! |
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11-27-16 | San Jose State v. Washington State -8.5 | Top | 88-76 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
ATS Blowout - Rickenbach CBB Game #726 Sunday - 10* Top Play Washington State Cougars (-) vs San Jose State Spartans - Both of these clubs are projected to finish at the bottom of their respective conferences but that's where the key difference is in this match-up. Washington State plays in the tough PAC-12 while San Jose State is at the bottom of the Mountain West. The Cougars have a distinct size edge in this match-up and the last time these teams met, two years ago, Washington State rolled by 29 points. This one is unlikely to be quite that easy but I certainly expect the Cougars to get this by double digits and the line has dropped from a 10.5 to an 8.5 which is offering us even more line value with the big home fave here. Washington State will be fired up off of a loss as they had held 3 of their first 4 opponents to 39% or less from the field. Also, the Cougars have shot the ball very well on the other end of the floor with a 49.2% mark so far this season. The Spartans on the other hand have been held under 44% from the field in each of their last three games while allowing at least 50% from the field in 3 straight games. This is a mismatch and, though the Cougars may again struggle in PAC12 games this season, this is another non-conference match-up where they can absolutely dominate. The Cougars are 17-7 ATS as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points and now this number has dropped even lower offering more value! San Jose State is on a 7-13 ATS run in non-conference games. 10* WASHINGTON STATE minus the big points Sunday evening |
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11-27-16 | Panthers +3.5 v. Raiders | Top | 32-35 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #269 Sunday - 10* Top Play Carolina Panthers (+) @ Oakland Raiders @ 4:25 ET - Tremendous line value here as the Panthers, though they did hang on for the win last Thursday against the Saints, blew a big lead. On the other side of this equation, you have the Raiders who rallied for a very fortunate win against the Texans on Monday night. So, not only does Carolina have extra rest in front of this game and Oakland is on short rest, you also have a situation where the perception is flawed here based upon the way the games involving these two teams played out in the latter stages last week. Playing the road team in Raiders games this season would have netted you a 9-1 (90%) record thusfar. The road team in Oakland games just continues to get the cash nearly every week. That factor also bodes well with the fact that Carolina has gone 16-8 ATS as a road dog in their last 24 games. Even though the Panthers offense didn't perform well last week their defense certainly continued it's recent resurgence and Carolina's defense ranks them a significant edge over the Raiders defense. Oakland's D is among the worst in the league while the Panthers have allowed just 326.5 yards per game in their last 4 games. After big games in back to back weeks (division rival Denver and then a MNF game versus a division-leading Texans team), the Raiders defense is likely to fall flat here after rising to the occasion in back to back weeks. A lot of points are expected here (per the odds makers) and Oakland is 1-10 ATS in home games with a posted total of 49.5 points or more. Also, a straight-up Carolina win is not needed here to get the cash but note that the Panthers are actually 9-0 SU when they are off of a win against a division rival. Also, in games 9 through 12 of a season, Oakland is 2-18 ATS when they are facing a non-divisional opponent who is off of a home game. That means we have combined factors of 37-3 (93%) working in favor of the road dog in this one. I'll take it. 10* Top Play CAROLINA PANTHERS plus the points Sunday afternoon |
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11-26-16 | Wyoming v. New Mexico OVER 68 | Top | 35-56 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
#1 CFB TOTAL - Rickenbach CFB Game #221/222 Saturday - 10* Top Play OVER the total in New Mexico Lobos vs Wyoming Cowboys @ 10:15 ET - These teams are a combined 17-5 to the over this season and there is no reason for that strong trending to continue Saturday. In fact, with Air Force upsetting Boise State yesterday, it means that Wyoming (now crowed as the MWC Mountain Division Champ) is less likely to bring an 'intense' effort on defense to this match-up with New Mexico. The fact is that even if the Cowboys did 'bring it' on defense against the Lobos it may not help anyway. Wyoming has been scorched for 455.4 yards per game this season. However, New Mexico's defense is not anything special either. The Lobos were gouged for over 400 yards on the ground last week. Prior to that poor effort, the New Mexico pass defense was shredded for 282 yards per game through the air by Utah State and Nevada. None of the last 5 teams the Lobos have faced have winning records either so they could really get torched now by a strong Wyoming offense. The last time that New Mexico faced a solid team (Air Force) the game totaled 85 points. With the Cowboys now playing loose and relaxed in this game and the Lobos happy to put on a 'show' at home, there should be points galore in this game. The Cowboys are on an 11-4 run to the over in games where they are a road favorite. Wyoming is 3-0 to the over this month and the Lobos are 5-0 to the over in home games this season. I'll gladly test the combined 8-0, 100% mark with this solid situation! 10* Top Play OVER the total in New Mexico Saturday night |
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11-26-16 | Utah +10 v. Colorado | Top | 22-27 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
#1 CFB SIDE - Rickenbach CFB Game #193 Saturday - 10* Top Play Utah Utes (+) @ Colorado Buffaloes @ 7:30 ET - The Utes are off of a home upset loss versus Oregon but clearly got caught looking ahead to this game. Conversely, Colorado is actually off of a big win over Washington State last week as they continue to be a 'covering machine' this season. The Buffaloes also have been a 'covering machine' in this series as they are 5-0 ATS against the Utes. However, there are two keys with where the value lies in this match-up. All 5 of the meetings have been decided by 7 points or less AND Utah has been the straight-up winner in 4 of the 5 meetings. With that said, there is clearly value with the Utes as a double digit dog in this match-up. Colorado must win this game to secure a spot in the PAC-12 Championship game while the Utes clearly would love nothing more than to play the role of spoiler here. Utah is 8-3 ATS the past three seasons (including 2-0 ATS this season) as an underdog. Also, looking at long-term numbers, the Utes are an incredible 9-2 ATS when they are a road dog of 7.5 to 10 points! While it has been an incredible season for the Buffaloes, only 4 of their last 9 games have been wins by more than 10 points. Hence, you can see the value here with the double digit dog Utes whom, statistically, are certainly not far behind the Buffs. Also, Colorado is still only 5-13 ATS their last 18 games as a favorite against PAC-12 foes. The Utes are 6-0, 100% PERFECT ATS when they are off of a SU loss which was also an ATS loss and now facing a team that is off of a SU win that was also an ATS win. Look for that system to go to 7-0 in what is going to be a fiercely contested PAC-12 battle. 10* Top Play UTAH UTES plus the BIG points on Saturday evening |
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11-26-16 | Spurs v. Wizards +6.5 | Top | 112-100 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
NBA TV Top Play - Rickenbach NBA Game #504 Saturday - 10* Top Play Washington Wizards (+) vs San Antonio Spurs @ 7:05 ET - Even though this is a back to back for both teams, the Wizards actually had 3 full off days before knocking off Orlando yesterday. For the Spurs, it's been quite a different story as this will be their 4th game in 6 days. Look for fatigue to be a factor in this one. Also, even though the Spurs are on a winning streak, they had covered only 4 of their 11 November games prior to yesterday's win at cover at Boston. San Antonio had to rally back from an early deficit to get the 6-point road win over the Celtics and it will be interesting to see how much they have left in the tank after that "big push" yesterday to get the road win. The Spurs have lost SU and ATS in each of their past two visits to D.C. Also, the Wizards have gone 4-1 ATS as a home dog of 3.5 to 6 points and now this line has crept up even higher which is giving even more line value to the home team in this one. Washington has won 3 of its past 4 games and the Wizards last 6 losses have been by an average of just 7 points. They're in this one all the way and the points should be enough to get the all-important cover. 10* Top Play WASHINGTON WIZARDS plus the points early Saturday evening |
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11-26-16 | Texas-Arlington +2.5 v. Fordham | Top | 67-63 | Win | 100 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
Top Play Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #531 Saturday - 10* Top Play UT-Arlington Mavericks (+) @ Fordham Rams @ 5 ET - This line has moved from UT-Arlington being the 2.5 point favorite to Fordham now being the 2.5 point choice. Of course this 5 point move has opened up phenomenal value on the Mavericks. UT-Arlington does not have the record that the Rams have so far on this young season but the Mavs have played the tougher schedule. Even though Fordham is from the Atlantic Ten and UT-Arlington is from the SunBelt, the Rams are expected to finish near the bottom of the A-10 as they lost their top two scorers from last season while the Mavericks are the clear choice for the #1 spot in the SBC as virtually everyone is back (including all 5 starters and key reserves) from last season's team. The Mavericks are on a 14-6 ATS run in non-conference game and are 9-2 ATS the last 11 times they have been a road dog of 3 points or less. Fordham is on a 19-36 ATS run in November games. 10* Top Play UT-Arlington plus the points on Saturday in very early evening action |
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11-25-16 | Cincinnati v. Tulsa OVER 62.5 | Top | 37-40 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
CFB Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Game #125/126 Friday - 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs Cincinnati Bearcats @ 8:30 ET - Cincinnati has not played well at all on offense in recent games but QB Hayden Moore now has a couple games under his belt since he returned and I expect him to have a big game against a weak Tulsa defense. The Golden Hurricane are off of a solid effort at Central Florida but now that they know they can't win the West Division of the AAC, it will be tough for the Tulsa defense to bring another solid effort here. That said, this is a Tulsa D that, prior to the UCF game, had allowed an average of 35 points per game in their 9 prior games! The Bearcats will enjoy some success against this defense just like they did in last year's 49-38 win over Tulsa. This should be another wild, high-scoring game but this time it will be the Golden Hurricane holding the upper hand in terms of production on offense. The Bearcats defense looks like they had a decent showing last week in terms of yardage but that's because Memphis simply got up big early and then took their foot off of the gas. Tulsa, playing their season finale and seeking revenge, will keep their foot on the gas all the way through this one. Keep in mind, the Golden Hurricane like to play at a fast pace as their average of 83.9 plays per game on offense ranks them 4th out of the 128 FBS teams! Tulsa's offense had one bad game this season (against Ohio State - who doesn't?) but has averaged 45.4 points per game in their other 10 games this season! The over is 4-2 in Bearcats games where they are an underdog in a range of 21.5 to 31 points. The over is 12-4 in Golden Hurricane home games. Also, great weather expected here with chilly temps but dry conditions with little to no wind at all. 10* OVER the total in Tulsa Friday |
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11-25-16 | Raptors v. Bucks OVER 209.5 | Top | 105-99 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
Top Play Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #715/716 Friday - 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Bucks vs Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - We are being offered significant line value here as this total has dropped a little early Friday morning and the fact is the over is 8-1 in the Raptors last 9 games and there is no reason to expect that trend to stop here. Toronto has scored at least 112 points in 7 of their 8 road games this season. They're visiting Milwaukee and the Bucks are off of a low-scoring home win but previously had scored at least 106 points in 6 of their first 7 home games this season. As you can see, the Raptors are a small road favorite here and a 112-106 type game certainly would not be a surprise and, given the numbers above, is actually quite likely! Milwaukee shoots much better at home than on the road while Toronto has shot better on the road compared to at home this season. This game is truly the perfect set-up for an over! When the Raptors are off of a non-conference game they have gone 6-1 to the over this season and 41-26 to the over the past 3 seasons combined. Toronto is also 7-1 to the over this season on the road while the Bucks are 7-1 to the over at home this season. With each team off of a win, they may overlook the defensive shortcomings that played a role in the Raptors losing 4 of 5 before Wednesday's win and the Bucks losing 5 of 6 before Monday's win. The result will be a fast-paced affair with plenty of open looks. 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee Friday |
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11-25-16 | Southern Illinois +16 v. Minnesota | Top | 45-57 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
BLACK FRIDAY Best Bet - Rickenbach CBB Game #735 Friday - 10* Top Play Southern Illinois Salukis (+) @ Minnesota Golden Gophers @ 8 ET - Minnesota is off to a 5-0 start this season and I like the direction the Golden Gophers are headed. I already used them once this season (as a Free Pick) and cashed in easily. However, Minnesota seems to have an over-inflated pointspread here. This is not a good situational spot for them. The Golden Gophers are off of a hard-fought win over an SEC foe (Arkansas) and they have a tough ACC foe (Florida State) on deck followed by another SEC foe (Vanderbilt). With that said, the Salukis are not exactly commanding a lot of Minnesota's attention and I like what Southern Illinois is doing early this season. They did lose some key talent from last year's team but Rodriguez, Fletcher, and Vincent are all returning players and they have combined to give the Salukis solid backcourt play. The frontcourt was a big concern outside of the 6'7 senior forward O'Brien. However, not only is O'Brien off to a big start both with scoring and rebounding, the addition of junior college transfer Thik Bol has proven to be a huge addition to the frontcourt. Though he is "only" 6'8 he is a proven shot-blocking machine (102 blocks last year and averaged 4.9 blocks per game the prior season) and Bol has come in and averaged 9 rebounds and 2.8 blocks per game so far this season. This means the Salukis are a little more "complete" than expected early this season and couple that with the fact that they have shot the ball very well (51.2%) early this season and I expect Southern Illinois to stay within single digits of Minnesota throughout this game. In games with a posted total in the 150 to 159.5 range, the Salukis are on a long-term 5-1 ATS run. The Golden Gophers are only 17-30 SU (and 19-28 ATS) in their last 47 games against teams with a winning record. Yes, the Big Ten is tougher than the Missouri Valley Conference but this line is simply "too much" as Barry Hinson is the reigning MVC Coach of the Year last year and has his team ready to compete and make up for a loss to Arkansas on the 14th that was the Salukis only ugly loss so far this season. They know this is a "big game" opportunity for them while the Golden Gophers simply aren't highly motivated here. That keeps this one much closer than many are expecting and yes I know Minny has been playing solid defense early this season but I expect them to be flat here. 10* Top Play SOUTHERN ILLINOIS Friday evening |
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11-24-16 | Steelers v. Colts +9 | Top | 28-7 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
TNF Top Play - Rickenbach NFL Game #112 Thursday - 10* Top Play Indianapolis Colts (+) vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 8:30 ET - No one wants the Colts here and everyone is lining up on the Steelers because of the Andrew Luck situation at QB. Of course having Scott Tolzien at QB is a huge stepdown from having Luck under center but, as a contrarian, I love fading the line move in situations like this. The Colts are now very nearly a double digit home dog in this game and they are going to bring a huge effort as they try to rally around the absence of Luck tonight. So many times, in the first game without a star player, you will see the rest of the team step up and other individuals tend to play their best games of the year in situations like this. Look for the Colts to indeed "rally the troops" for this one and they certainly have plenty of motivation. Not only is this the Thanksgiving Day primetime game under the lights, the Colts were demolished at Pittsburgh each of the past two seasons so Indianapolis is very happy to have this game at home and have a shot at home revenge after getting embarrassed by the Steelers each of the past two seasons. Also, in Sunday's win over the Titans, the Colts defense hung tough (and their D has improved in recent games) and coupling that with the Texas loss to Oakland Monday Night and Indianapolis is rejuvenated by their current positioning in the AFC South. The Colts have a fantastic long-term history in Thursday games with a 13-1 SU mark and 11-1 ATS mark. Also, the Steelers are off of a divisional win (albeit against the lowly Browns) and Pittsburgh is only 3-6 SU and 1-5 ATS when off of a win over a divisional foe. The highly motivated Colts will be flying all over the field in this one and I see this game being a one-possession game all the way through which means huge value with the big points. 10* Top Play INDIANAPOLIS |
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11-24-16 | New Mexico v. Virginia Tech OVER 153 | Top | 72-92 | Win | 100 | 6 h 50 m | Show |
RARE Tourney Top - Rickenbach CBB Game #525/526 - 10* Top Play OVER the total in Virginia Tech Hokies vs New Mexico Lobos @ Titan Gym in the Wooden Classic in Fullerton, CA @ 4:30 ET - Both of these teams are 3-0 but have played weak schedules. When this happens, a team's defense tends to relax as it's only natural because, when you're winning, it is easy to just keep rolling along and overlook any defensive shortcomings. That's because, to this point, they haven't cost you anything because you simply keep on winning due to facing out-classed foes. The significance in that here is that both these teams returned plenty of firepower this season in terms of returning starters and big scorers but both teams have had issues with being lax on the defensive end in recent seasons. Virginia Tech is particularly known for this and New Mexico is certainly known for playing a "run and gun" style as well. That said, the fact this total has dropped down from as high as a 158 to as low as a 153 is now offering us fantastic value on the over. The Hokies are 7-2 to the over on a neutral court in recent seasons and also 7-1 to the over in games where the total is in a range of 150 to 159.5 points. Also, New Mexico is 10-6 to the over when they are off of a game where they allowed 60 points or less. After holding in-state rival New Mexico State to only 59 points in their most recent game, look for the Lobos defense to now fall flat in this one after the big rivalry win. 10* OVER the total in the Virginia Tech game Thursday |
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11-23-16 | Old Dominion +16 v. Louisville | Top | 62-68 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
CBB Game of the Month - Rickenbach CBB Game #759 Wednesday - 10* Top Play Old Dominion Monarchs (+) vs Louisville Cardinals @ in Battle 4 Atlantis @ Imperial Arena in Nassau, Bahamas @ 9:30 ET - Louisville is a top ten team in the nation and the Cardinals have absolutely dominated their first three games of the season. That really helps us here in terms of line value because this is not a good spot for the Cardinals to run up a big score. The Monarchs like to play a methodical style on offense and they rely on their "length" on defense and they also crash the boards well. As you can see from the low total posted on this game, not a lot of points are expected in this one and I look for Old Dominion to keep this game much closer than many are expecting. The Monarchs did suffer a pair of key losses (Trey Freeman and Aaron Bacote) from last season's team but they've got some solid newcomers in the mix for this season and have good size in both the frontcourt and backcourt. Keep in mind this was a 25-win team last season and Jeff Jones is a veteran coach (entered this season 427-326 in 24 years!) and he is now 72-39 at Old Dominion as he works into his 4th season there. Louisville, of course, is well-coached under Rick Pitino. However, this will be the first game they get forced into really having to score significant points in the half-court game because Old Dominion certainly is not going to let them run wild in transition. This is a key because the Cardinals lost their top three scorers from last season's team. The Cards are 0-4 ATS L4 against Conference USA opponents while the Monarchs are 3-0 ATS L3 as a neutral court dog of 12.5 to 15 points. That's a combined 7-0 ATS mark that favored Old Dominion based on the opening number on this game. Now that the spread has moved even higher, there is even more value with a team that truly is a "dangerous dog" in a situation like this. One final note on this, both teams have had significant time off since their most recent game but that favors the underdog as, if shots aren't falling due to the layoff and each team has some rust, it also helps to keep this game closer than the inflated number. 10* OLD DOMINION |
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11-23-16 | Celtics v. Nets OVER 214 | Top | 111-92 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #713/714 Wednesday - 10* Top Play OVER the total in Brooklyn Nets vs Boston Celtics @ 7:35 ET - The Celtics are on a long under streak but the Nets are on a long over streak so something has to give here. The way this one has been set up, and the fact that Brooklyn is at home and will be happy to dictate the pace here, has me expecting a ton of points in this one. The Nets have allowed at least 124 points in 4 straight games! These teams combined for 239 points earlier this season when they met in Boston and a similar result in Brooklyn would not surprise. The Celtics have a much tougher match-up hosting San Antonio coming up Friday so I would not be surprised to see Boston completely willing to "run and gun" with the Nets in this one. The over is a perfect 4-0 this season when Brooklyn is off of a loss by a margin of 10 points or more in their prior game. The over is 6-2 in the Nets last 8 home games with a posted total of 210 points or more. Look for more of the same on Wednesday night. 10* OVER the total in Brooklyn |
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11-23-16 | Flyers v. Lightning OVER 5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
TV Game of the Month - Rickenbach NHL Game #63/64 Wednesday - 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tampa Bay Lightning vs Philadelphia Flyers @ 7:35 ET - The Flyers got a big game out of goalie Steve Mason last night as they won 3-1 at Florida last night. Now it's a tough spot for the goal-tending situation of Philly because Michal Neurvirth is currently injured. That means the Flyers only options are to start Mason again in this back to back spot OR to go with NHL rookie 22-year old Anthony Stolarz. Neither option is a good one because, even though he has done well in limited action this season in back to back spots, throughout Mason's career he has not fared well when making a start with no rest between games. As for Stolarz, the rookie would be tested by a dangerous Lightning offense that is hungry off of a loss. Prior to losing 3-1 at Nashville, the Bolts had won 8 of their 10 prior games and averaged 3.4 goals per game. during that stretch. Even with Steven Stamkos out, this Tampa Bay team still has plenty of dangerous firepower on offense. Where the Lightning are hurting is with Anton Stralman's injury. He is a top D-man for TB and one weakness of this Tampa team is not having significant depth on the blue line. Look for the Flyers to take advantage and respond after getting shutout at home by Tampa Bay on Saturday. That means we should see plenty of goals in this one and, yes, I am aware of the Sean Couturier injury for Philly last night. They still have plenty of potency on offense. In their 20 games this season, only 3 have finished with fewer than 5 goals. The over is 7-2-1 this season when the Flyers are playing with revenge. Long-term Philadelphia is 112-75 to the over when playing with home loss revenge. 10* OVER in Tampa Bay |
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11-22-16 | Central Michigan v. Eastern Michigan OVER 58 | Top | 21-26 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
Rare Tuesday Top - Rickenbach CFB Game #105/106 Tuesday - 10* Top Play OVER the total in Eastern Michigan Eagles vs Central Michigan Chippewas @ 7 ET - It is rare for me to have a weeknight Top Play in Football but the value here is simply too strong to ignore. Eastern Michigan has recorded 5 unders and just 2 overs in their 7 MAC games this season. However, the Eagles have averaged 290.4 passing yards per game which is good for 2nd in the MAC and their pass defense is allowing 269.2 yards per game which ranks near the very bottom of the MAC. With numbers like this you would expect more overs and indeed the lack of overs involving the Eagles has led to value with this total tonight. The weather will be cold but no precipitation and light winds in Ypsilanti, MI tonight. Also, both of these teams are bowl eligible but both are pushing for that 7th win tonight as their certainly have been 6 win teams in the past that have not made bowls. This ensures a strong effort from both teams and Central Michigan's ground game was abysmal last week so they know they'll need to (and can!) move the ball through the air against the Eagles. As for the Eastern Michigan offense, they continue to move at a fast pace. This has led to 82.2 offensive plays per game in their last 5 games. The yardage produced by the Eagles has totaled at least 435 yards in 4 of those 5 games and they've be put up particularly big numbers the past two weeks even though last week's game surprisingly stayed under the total. With Cooper Rush for the Chips and Brogan Roback for the Eagles, both of these teams have solid QBs in place and this game should be a high-scoring shootout that goes down to the wire. The over is 3-1 in Central Michigan's last 4 road games. The over is 10-6 in Eagles games when they are off of a loss to a MAC foe. 10* Top Play OVER the total in Eastern Michigan Tuesday |
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11-21-16 | Oklahoma State v. Connecticut UNDER 154.5 | Top | 98-90 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
Top TV Total Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #741/742 Monday - 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Connecticut Huskies vs Oklahoma State Cowboys @ 9 ET - This total has risen in ridiculous jumps today and I am happy to fade it. After opening up at 146.5 this total has risen to as high as 155.5 and I completely understand the move because Oklahoma State is averaging a ridiculous 107 points per game this season. Keep in mind, the Cowboys have only played 3 games this season and they haven't faced a team that is anywhere close to the quality of this UConn team. The Huskies also are known for playing solid defense. Connecticut has allowed an average of only 64.3 points per game this season and last season the Huskies allowed only 63.5 points per game on the full season. That was good for 14th in the nation. The fact is that they are a defensive-minded team and so far this season they have struggled on the offensive end where they are averaging only 61.3 points per game. That sets this one up to be a much tighter, low-scoring match-up than what many are expecting here. Oklahoma State was 10th in the Big 12 last season for scoring as they averaged only 66.5 points per game and they allowed 67.1 points per game last season which was good enough for 2nd in the Big 12. This total has been inflated by the unusual early season stats for the Cowboys and we can step in now and take advantage of that. This total, as noted above, has gotten run all the way up into the 150s and, keep in mind, even when totals have been in the 140 to 149.5 range for the Cowboys the under has gone 12-3 (80%) the last 3 seasons. The Huskies, when off of a non-conference game, have seen the under go 14-7 (67%) the last 3 seasons. 10* UNDER the total in the UConn game Monday night |
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11-21-16 | Celtics v. Wolves OVER 208 | Top | 99-93 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
Top Total Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #713/714 Monday - 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Timberwolves vs Boston Celtics @ 8:05 ET - The Timberwolves are off of one of the ugliest games you'll ever see as they lost 93 to 71 at Memphis on Saturday. Look for Minnesota to respond in a big way as they are back at home for this one and they have averaged 110.5 points per game in their home games so far this season. The OVER is 11-7 when the T-wolves are off of a game where they were held to 85 points or less. Also, when off of an upset loss as a favorite (Minny was small fave Saturday), they have gone 13-5 to the OVER the past 3 seasons. The Timberwolves are hosting Boston and the Celtics are off of an ugly win (94 to 92) at Detroit Saturday. Though the C's have short poorly in recent games, the Minnesota defense has allowed 50.5% from the field in their last 7 games prior to take advantage to facing a poor 76'ers team and an offensively-challenged Grizzlies team. In other words, look for the Timberwolves to resume giving up big points tonight especially with the added focus on the offensive end after Saturday's embarrassing 71-point effort. The OVER is 3-1 in the last 4 meetings between these teams and Boston shot 50% from the field and averaged 117.5 points per game in the two meetings last season. More of the same here. 10* Top Play OVER in Minnesota Monday evening |
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11-21-16 | Avalanche v. Blue Jackets OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
Earliest Cash Top Total - Rickenbach NHL Game #51/52 Monday - 10* Top Play OVER 5.5 goals in Columbus Blue Jackets vs Colorado Avalanche @ 7:05 ET - The Avalanche are expected to start Semyon Varlamov tonight and he has struggled this season with a 4-8 record and a 3.01 GAA. Not only that, the netminder has particularly struggled in recent road games. Away from home, Varlamov's last 4 starts have seen Colorado allow a total of 17 goals for an average of 4.25 goals per game. The Avalanche will be facing a red hot Columbus team that has gone 8-1-1 in their last 10 games. The Blue Jackets have averaged 4 goals per game during this hot streak. However, in terms of defensive intensity tonight, it may not "be there" for Columbus as they are in a back to back spot and they just beat a strong Capitals team yesterday. The Avalanche offense has started to get going again as they've averaged 3 goals per game in their last 3 games and I am expecting a 4-3 type game tonight. Coincidentally, that was the final score (4-3 Jackets win) when these teams met in Colorado in October last season. This season's first meeting is in Columbus where the Blue Jackets have averaged 4.2 goals per game. The Jackets big win yesterday was over a division rival. The last 61 times they are off of a divisional game they have stayed under the total only 22 times. 10* Top Play OVER 5.5 in Columbus early Monday evening |
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11-20-16 | NC State v. Creighton OVER 158 | Top | 94-112 | Win | 100 | 9 h 0 m | Show |
Top Total Smash - Rickenbach CBB Game #559/560 Sunday - 10* Top Play OVER the total in Creighton Blue Jays vs NC State Wolfpack @ 8:30 ET in San Juan, Puerto Rico - This total opened up at a 160.5 and now has dropped to a 158. Of course this is because the markets see a total in the 160 range and immediately think under. However, this total was big for a reason. The Blue Jays are known for their emphasis on the 3-ball and they've been knocking down shots like crazy from beyond the arc this season. Creighton is hitting 48.5% of their three pointers this season. The weakness for the Blue Jays is rebounding and interior defense. That spells trouble against an NC State team tha thas some solid size inside and that has shot the ball extremely well (60%+) from inside the arc in their last two games. The Wolfpack and Blue Jays are both brimming with confidence as each team has won all 3 of their games and NC State is averaging 84 points per game and Creighton is averaging 90.3 points per game early this season. The over is 5-1 in Blue Jays neutral court games and 8-3 in the Wolfpack's neutral court games. I'll gladly test that combined 13-4 over mark in thise one. 10* OVER the total in Creighton game Sunday |
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11-20-16 | Eagles +7 v. Seahawks | Top | 15-26 | Loss | -121 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
NFC Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Game #471 Sunday - 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ Seattle Seahawks @ 4:25 ET - The Seahawks are off of a huge revenging win at New England in the Sunday night game. Keep in mind that wasn't just "any revenge" either as it was Super Bowl revenge from the 2015 Super Bowl loss to the Patriots! Not only that but Seattle had to go coast to coast to get it. After that huge win and with another road trip to the East Coast on deck, this is a tough spot for the Seahawks. There is big value with the points as Seattle has only two wins by more than 7 points out of their 9 games this season. Also, the Eagles have not lost a game by more than 7 points this entire season. Philadelphia did, however, accomplish something last week that they haven't done all season and that is they won a game by single digits. That was a tight game and Philly got the win over a good Falcons team. The Eagles defense continues to be dominating as they've allowed 303 yards or less in 6 of their last 8 games! Statistically these teams are very nearly equal so Seattle should be about a field goal favorite at home but instead they're laying around a TD in this one and, given the situational disadvantages to the Seahawks, the big line is certainly not warranted. In other words, big value with the dog in this one. In games 9 through 12 of a season, Philadelphia has gone 12-2 ATS when they are on the road and playing with revenge against a non-divisional opponent. The Eagles lost to the Hawks in Philly in 2014. Philadelphia has also covered 14 in a row (14-0, 100% ATS!) as a road dog of more than 4 points when playing with revenge against an NFC opponent. In games 9 through 12 of a season, Seattle has gone 1-7 ATS when off of an outright win as a underdog and facing a non-divisional opponent. That means we have edges of 33-3 (92%) ATS favoring the Eagles in this spot which truly is an excellent situation. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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11-20-16 | BC v. Calgary -7 | Top | 15-42 | Win | 100 | 4 h 24 m | Show |
CFL Finals VALUE Smash - Rickenbach CFL Game #480 - 10* Top Play Calgary Stampeders (-) vs BC Lions @ 4:30 ET - With barely getting by Winnipeg last week, the Lions showed they're likely to be in trouble this week against the rested Stampeders. Calgary is coming off of an absolutely dominating CFL season and the fact that this line opened up at 8.5 and then dropped to 7 has me liking this play even more. Yes, the points are significant here but the edges are off the charts as you don't dominate the way Calgary did in the regular season by accident. This Stampeders team is firing on all cylinders and they beat the Lions 37 to 9 in their most recent meeting and that was in British Columbia! The Stampeders are 6-0 SU and 5-0 ATS when off of a bye week! The Lions are 4-9 SU (and 3-10 ATS) when they are off of two or more consecutive wins. Also, BC is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 November games. This one gets ugly in a hurry! 10* CALGARY Sunday afternoon |
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11-20-16 | Dolphins v. Rams OVER 39 | Top | 14-10 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
NFL Total of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #467/468 Sunday - 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Rams vs Miami Dolphins @ 4:05 ET - On the surface this looks like an ugly game but I expect a huge effort here from the Rams as everyone will step up their game to support rookie QB Jared Goff as he finally makes his first NFL start. Even though Los Angeles hasn't been putting up points on the scoreboard, prior to last week the Rams had actually averaged 270.4 passing yards per game in their 5 prior games. Goff's teammates will also be wanting to step up for their rookie QB and that includes the running backs as they look to exploit a Dolphins defense that ranks as one of the worst in the league against the run. Also, the Miami D has allowed 284 passing yards per game in their 4 road games this season so don't be surprised if the Rams move the ball a lot better than many are expecting here. Miami has found a way to put points on the board and they have averaged 29 points per game their last 4 games. 7 of the Dolphins last 8 games have totaled at least 45 points and, with the Rams having "nothing to lose" here as they go into the "Goff experiment" I look for them to be willing to open up the playbook with the young QB and surprise a Miami defense that has had it's share of recent struggles in a situation like this. The over is 4-0 the past two seasons seasons when the Dolphins are playing a 2nd straight game away from home. After the big win at San Diego last week, the Dolphins remained in California for this 2nd straight away game and the lack of a "normal" routine this past week will again hurt the Miami defense. 10* OVER in Los Angeles |
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11-19-16 | USC v. UCLA +13.5 | Top | 36-14 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
PAC-12 Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFB Game #406 Saturday - 10* Top Play UCLA Bruins (+) vs USC Trojans @ 10:30 ET - Huge rivalry game of course and the Bruins have some added confidence after getting back into the win column with a big win over Oregon State last week. This week UCLA catches the Trojans off of their big upset win at Washington last week as a TD+ underdog. Give USC credit as that was a very impressive performance but of course it is difficult to come out and have your "A game" in back to back weeks and, in my opinion, it would take another "A game" from the Trojans to be able to cover this large spread Saturday night. Yes, QB Josh Rosen is out for the season for the Bruins but starting in his place is a 5th year senior, Mike Fafaul, who completed 25 of 47 passes for 281 yards last week. Of course it will be a much tougher task for Fafaul and Company against the USC defense BUT how much will the Trojans have left in the tank after that huge upset win last week? Also, lets not forget that the Bruins defense has been fantastic this season as only one team (Utah) has scored more than 27 points against this defense (not including overtime points). Sure USC has put up big points against bad Pac 12 defenses and against an overmatched Utah State team in non-conference action. However, in the Trojans other 5 games (against quality defenses) they were held to an average of only 18 points per game. I just don't see USC getting enough against this quality Bruins defense to blow UCLA away. Simply put, this game will go down to the wire as the 4-6 Bruins would love nothing more than to eliminate their hated rival from PAC-12 South contention. The Trojans are a long-term 5-10 ATS as road favorites of 10.5 to 14 points. In games played in weeks 10 through 13 of a season, the Bruins are 7-2 ATS their last 9. The home team is on a 14-5 ATS run in this series and, overall, USC is on a 11-22 ATS run as a road favorite. The Bruins had won 3 straight in this series (all by double digits) before last seasons embarrassing 40-21 loss to the Trojans. It is time for a little payback here. 10* UCLA Bruins plus the big points Saturday |
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11-19-16 | Mavs v. Magic OVER 178.5 | Top | 87-95 | Win | 100 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #705/706 Saturday - 10* Top Play OVER 178.5 in Orlando Magic vs Dallas Mavericks @ 7:05 ET - Both these teams have had some pathetic performances on offense recently so this total has, of course, dropped from 184 all the way down to a 178.5 as of late morning Saturday. That means it's go time for me in this one as both teams, off of recent embarrassing performances, will be opening things up offensively in this one and I seriously doubt that either team will again be held below 90 points. Yes I know that Dirk Nowitzki is still hurt for Dallas and that the Mavericks have some other injury issues. However, these are still NBA level players that are capable of scoring the ball and let's take a look at these two defenses. Dallas, before yesterday's ugly loss at Memphis, had allowed at least 90 points in 9 of their first 10 games this season. The Magic, before back to back "snooze fests" had allowed an average of 104.1 points per game in their first 10 games. What this line move is saying is that the odds makers were dead wrong with the total they set and, trust me, the odds makers were aware of all the variables just like we are. It doesn't take much offensive efficiency to get over a total this low and I am all "over" (literally!) this one! 10* OVER the total in Orlando |
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11-19-16 | UMass v. BYU OVER 55 | Top | 9-51 | Win | 100 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach CFB Game #345/346 Saturday - 10* Top Play OVER the total in BYU Cougars vs UMass Minutemen @ 2 ET - The Minutemen are having another tough season but they should still score their fair share here. After all, BYU has the Old Wagon Wheel rivalry on deck as they host Utah State next week. That said, the Cougars defensive intensity may not be at its greatest for this game against a 2-8 UMass team. The Minutemen have averaged 27 points per game in their last 8 games and they have scored at least 16 points in all 8 of those games. That is significant here because even if they only got to 16, note that the Cougars are a 4 TD fave in this game. That means a 44-16 type game could be expected. Certainly I do expect this one to get to at least 60 points as the UMass defensive line will be pushed around all day by the dominating, veteran offensive line of BYU. The Cougars have averaged 33 points per game in their last 7 games and they've faced some much tougher defenses during that stretch than what they're facing today. The Minutemen have allowed about 43 points per game in their last 6 games against FBS foes. The Cougars have been an "under team" this season but they can run up the score against a porous UMass defense in this one. By the way, the over is 18-7 when the Minutemen are an underdog, 4-0 when they are a dog of 21.5 to 31 points, 11-5 in their road games, and 5-1 when UMass is facing a team with a winning record. Cool temperatures but light winds in Provo, UT for this one should also help our cause with this total. 10* OVER the total in BYU Saturday |
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11-18-16 | Memphis v. Cincinnati OVER 58.5 | Top | 34-7 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
AAC Total of the Year - Rickenbach CFB Game #315/316 Friday - 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cincinnati Bearcats vs Memphis Tigers @ 8 ET - Record high temperatures are expected today in Cincinnati as warmth continues in the area prior to a cold front plowing through later tonight. The result will be mild temperatures this evening for this one and, though the Bearcats have been an "under" team this season, there is a reason this line is moving upward. The fact is that the Cincy defense is not very good and there has been some "luck" involved with the Cats not allowing more points than they have. Their defense only ranks 71st (out of 129) based on yardage allowed per game. Memphis has a very dangerous offense (averaging 39 points per game this season) and they should knife right through the Bearcats D in this one. The key to the over however is the fact that Cincinnati should finally get their offense going. Yes, the Bearcats have had 9 unders in 10 games this season but, more recently, the problem has been they've been on the road or facing a tough opponent (BYU) at home. Overall in home games this season (other than tough match-ups against BYU and Houston), the Bearcats have averaged 26.5 points per game in their other 4 home games. In their first 7 games this season Cincy did average 284 passing yards per game and I expect that passing attack to get back on track tonight for Senior Night in Cincinnati. With nothing to lose (disappointing season overall), the Bearcats can certainly throw caution to the wind so look for them open up the playbook on offense and attack a Memphis defense that ranks 92nd (out of 129) based on yardage allowed per game. The over is 6-2 in the Tigers last 8 games and I look for another one here as the Bearcats put up big points in their home finale while a powerful Memphis offense has no trouble moving the ball all night in this one. 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cincinnati Friday |
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11-18-16 | Suns +7.5 v. Pacers | Top | 116-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
NBA Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Friday - 10* Top Play Phoenix Suns (+) @ Indiana Pacers @ 7:05 ET - The Suns have lost three straight games and allowed 120 points or more in all three defeats. The Phoenix players, of course, are well aware of this and fully focused on bouncing back on Friday and they are in the right place at the right time. The Suns have actually won 8 of their last 11 visits to Indiana and they catch the Pacers off of a huge win over the defending NBA champion Cavaliers. The Pacers caught a break as LeBron James sat out the game for Cleveland for rest. Speaking of breaks, the Indiana strength of schedule has not been as strong as what the Suns have faced so far this season and that also is leading to line value in this spot for Phoenix. The Suns have shot at least 49.4% from the field in 3 straight road games. The Pacers had shot only 41.7% from the field in their 3 games prior to a strong effort against the Cavaliers. After that big win, look for Indiana to fall flat here in what is anticipated to be a high scoring game. Note that the Pacers are 0-7 ATS this season in games with a posted total of 210 or more. The Suns are 4-1 ATS this season after a loss by 10 points or more in their prior game. The road team responds in this one and catches the home team in a flat spot. 10* PHOENIX SUNS Friday |
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11-18-16 | Red Wings v. Capitals OVER 5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -124 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach NHL Game #3/4 Friday - 10* Top Play OVER 5 goals in Washington Capitals vs Detroit Red Wings @ 7:05 ET - The Capitals are off of a huge 7-1 revenging win over the Penguins and that makes this a flat spot for them. After a huge effort Wednesday, I just don't see the Caps having the defensive intensity necessary to shut down a hungry Red Wings team in this one. Detroit is coming off of back to back losses but the Red Wings have scored 3 goals or more in 6 of their last 8 games. The issue for Detroit has been in their own end where they have allowed 3.5 goals per game in their last 8 games. That spells O-V-E-R in this one because the Red Wings will find plenty of opportunity in the offensive zone against a Washington club still celebrating their win over the defending Stanley Cup champs but Detroit also will continue to struggle keeping pucks out of their own net. That sets this one up for a wild one in DC tonight. Only 5 of the last 17 meetings between these clubs in Washington have stayed under the total. The over is 3-1 this season in Red Wings games when they are playing after two days of rest. Also, the over is 4-1 this season when Detroit is off of a game where they allowed 4 goals or more. The over is 4-2 in Capitals home games with a posted total of 5 goals or less this season. 10* OVER in Washington Friday |
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11-17-16 | 76ers v. Wolves OVER 212 | Top | 86-110 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
TNT Top Play - Rickenbach NBA Game #707/708 Thursday - 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Timberwolves vs Philadelphia 76'ers @ 8:05 ET - The Sixers rested their leading scorer, Joel Embiid last night (a home win over Washington) so he's ready to go tonight. Also, Jahlil Okafor will get some action again tonight after playing in last night's game. That means the Sixers are in good shape at the center position for this one. The key to this play is that it is a match-up of two of the youngest teams in the league. The younger players are known for taking time to jell as a unit and their inexperience results in not rotating properly on defense, not making switches when they should, etc. The result is generally wild, high-scoring games and it should come as no surprise that yesterday's win over the Wizards resulted in Philadelphia's 7th over in their last 9 games. As for Minnesota, they've gone over the total in 5 straight games. The Timberwolves are fired up off of a tight home loss to Charlotte Tuesday so there is no doubt they will be ready to push the pace and avoid turnovers as they play a much "cleaner" game on offense than they did against the Bobcats. That should be easy against a Sixers team that is one of the worst defensive teams in the league. By the way, the T-wolves are right there with Philly in terms of being among the worst teams on defense in the league. The over is 16-9 in Sixers road games where they are a dog of 9.5 to 12 points. Also, the 76'ers are a perfect 3-0 to the over against teams with a losing record this season. The Timberwolves are 3-0 to the over against non-conference opponents this season and I look for a 6th straight over for Minny tonight. 10* OVER in Minnesota Thursday |
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11-17-16 | Temple +4 v. Massachusetts | Top | 67-70 | Win | 100 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
Top Insider - Rickenbach CBB Game #715 Thursday - 10* Top Play Temple Owls (+) @ Massachusetts Minutemen @ 7 ET - These are former Atlantic Ten rivals and though the players have changed the coaches can certainly remember the last time they met. Fran Dunphy is now in his 11th season as head coach at Temple and Derek Kellogg is entering his 9th season at Massachusetts. The Owls lost to the Minutemen in an A-10 Quarterfinals game in March of 2013 the last time these two coaches squared off. It is time for a little payback for Dunphy and his team comes in "fighting mad" off of their loss to New Hampshire on Monday. Certainly UMass comes into this game hungry as well since they are off of a loss to Ole Miss. However, as is typically the case with Massachusetts, they are all about the offense and still not getting the job done on the defensive end. The Owls allowed only 67.6 points per game last season and was good enough for 4th in the AAC last season. UMass allowed 75.8 points per game last season and that ranked them very near rock bottom in the Atlantic 10. This season the Minutemen have already allowed 83 points per game whereas the Owls got involved in a wild first game that did go to OT but in their 2nd game they held a good New Hampshire team (one of the best in America East) to only 57 points. Though 1-1 on the season (with one good offensive showing and one good defensive showing), Temple is expected to put it all together in this revenge spot. The Owls defense and their size advantage in the frontcourt (with more depth too) to be the difference maker in this one. After a game where Temple has allowed 60 points or less they've gone 21-6 straight-up and, after a game where they've scored 60 points or less, the Owls have gone 13-4 straight-up. That's a combined 34-10 angle in play here as they are actually getting a few points in this match-up since it's at UMass. The Minutemen are 6-12 SU (and 5-10 ATS) when off of a game where they allowed 80 points or more and, once again, their defense does them in at home tonight. 10* TEMPLE Thursday |
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11-16-16 | Cavs v. Pacers +4.5 | Top | 93-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
Earliest Cash Top Play - Rickenbach NBA Game #502 Wednesday - 10* Top Play Indiana Pacers (+) vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 7:05 ET - Tough spot for the Cavaliers after surviving a "war" with the Raptors last night and hanging on for the four point win. Cleveland, now in a back to back situation, has to face a tough Pacers team that has always given them trouble in Indiana. Yes, the Pacers have an ugly ATS mark early this season but a lot of that has to do with Indy being 0-5 ATS on the road. At home, the Pacers have a straight-up record of 5-1 on the young season. They're catching Cleveland at a great time as the Cavaliers big three played some significant minutes last night with LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, and Kevin Love all logging at least 34 minutes in yesterday's non-covering win over the Raptors. Cleveland not only made nearly 40% of their three pointers last night, the Cavs also made 31 of 50 (62%) of their shots from inside the arc. Even with all the hot shooting Cleveland barely got by the Raptors and that says a lot right here. Now, on the road and in a back to back spot, the hot shooting is unlikely to continue and the Cavs will be in a battle just to try and win (let alone cover!) this tough road match-up. The Pacers have covered each of the last four meetings between these teams in Indiana. Overall, Indy is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings with the Cavs. The Cavaliers are on a 7-16 ATS run as a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. The Pacers are on a 22-12 ATS run in divisional games and will build off a confidence building effort against Orlando Monday where they held the Magic to just 69 points! It's always big to be welcoming the defending NBA champs to town and the Pacers want this game badly and are catching their division rivals at the perfect time - a tough scheduling spot for Cleveland. 10* Top Play INDIANA PACERS Wednesday |
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11-15-16 | Kansas +2.5 v. Duke | Top | 77-75 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #743 Tuesday - 10* Top Play Kansas Jayhawks (+) vs Duke Blue Devils in New York, NY @ 9:30 ET - The Jayhawks lost in OT on Friday in Hawaii as four players fouled out and they didn't play "Kansas D" in that game either. The Jayhawks allowed Indiana to connect on 48.4% of their three pointers and ended up losing the game by 4 points in the extra session. Kansas is going to respond in a HUGE way Tuesday night as coach Bill Self's Jayhawks had not lost a season opener in his 14 years with the team! They are fired up and ready to go here and what better opportunity for response than facing the #1 team in the nation? As usual, Duke is stacked this season but they faced a pair of weak foes to begin their season and now they will get truly tested tonight. The Blue Devils will be playing their 3rd game in 5 nights and they're facing a Jayhawks team that went 5-0 SU (and 4-1 ATS) the past two seasons when they are off of a game where they allowed 80 points or more. Long-term Kansas has a record of 66-13 SU (and 48-24, 67% ATS!) when off of a game where they gave up 80 points or more. Keep in mind that as "stacked" as Duke is, the Blue Devils are without three highly-touted newcomers for tonight's game. Missing Harry Giles, Jayson Tatum, and Marques Bolden was not a problem against the likes of Marist and Grand Canyon but the Jayhawks are an elite team. 10* Top Play KANSAS Tuesday |
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11-15-16 | Raptors +6.5 v. Cavs | Top | 117-121 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
NBA TV Top Play - Rickenbach NBA Game #701 Monday - 10* Top Play Toronto Raptors (+) @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 7:05 ET - The Cavaliers continue to be over-valued. Since a blowout win over the Knicks in their season opener, Cleveland has covered only once in their last eight games. They're facing a Raptors team with revenge on its mind as Toronto lost a tight one to the Cavs early this season plus got knocked out of last year's post-season by the eventual NBA champions. The Raptors loss to the Cavaliers was one of just two losses Toronto has on the season and it's no coincidence that those two games are the only two games in which the Raptors have shot under 44% from the field. Amazingly, the Cavaliers have been at the other end of the spectrum as they have been held under 42.5% from the field in 6 of their last 8 games. The Cavs have shot well from three point range and that is what has saved them. In their win at Toronto earlier this season the Cavaliers outscored the Raptors by 24 points from beyond the arc and yet they only won the game by 3 points. Toronto will get some payback tonight and, while the Cavaliers are playing for the 4th time in 6 nights, the Raptors have had two days off heading into this game. Toronto is 3-0 SU and ATS in road games this season while the Cavaliers are on an 0-5 ATS run in home games. Also, the Raptors are 4-0 ATS in games against teams averaging 99 points or more per game this season. That means we have combined systems of 12-0 ATS that are in favor of the road dog in this one. I'll take that any day of the week! 10* Top Play TORONTO RAPTORS Tuesday |
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11-15-16 | Capitals v. Blue Jackets OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
Rickenbach NHL Game #55/56 Tuesday - 10* Top Play OVER 5.5 in Columbus Blue Jackets vs Washington Capitals @ 7:05 ET - The Capitals are hungry to bounce back off of an embarrassing 5-1 loss at Carolina on Saturday. However, Washington's intensity on defense may not be at its best for this game because it is a huge "sandwich spot". Not only are the Caps off of a loss to a divisional rival, they also have a huge revenge game on deck at Pittsburgh tomorrow night. Of course it was the Penguins that eliminated the Capitals from the post-season last spring so don't be surprised if the defensive intensity is not at its best for Washington tonight. However, the Caps should be able to continue good production on offense against the Blue Jackets. The Capitals always give the Columbus D trouble and the Caps have scored 14 goals in the last 3 meetings. The Blue Jackets offense comes into this match-up flying high as they have tallied 31 goals in going 5-2 in their last 7 games. The over is 12-3 in the last 15 meetings between these clubs. Also, in the Jackets last 60 divisional games, only 21 have stayed under the total! As for Washington, they have had just 3 unders in their last 11 games. 10* OVER 5.5 in Columbus Tuesday |
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11-14-16 | Villanova v. Purdue OVER 148 | Top | 79-76 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #531/532 Monday - 10* Top Play OVER the total in Purdue Boilermakers vs Villanova Wildcats @ 7 ET - Purdue has one of the biggest frontcourts in the country and, as a result, there is no way that Villanova wants to turn this game into a half-court affair. The Wildcats are built well for being able to get quick points in transition and use their outstanding guard play to score big points in this one. In terms of the inside game, the Boilermakers are going to be able to score a ton of points in the paint including with second chance opportunities as their big men will certainly grab some offensive caroms in this one. The Cats put up 88 points in their season opener while Purdue scored 109 and the Mackey Arena will be rocking tonight for this HUGE game! The over is a long-term 14-6 in Villanova road games where their line ranges from pick'em up to a -3. Also, the over is 15-7 the last 3 seasons in all Wildcats road games. Additionally, the over is a long-term 15-5 in Nova road games where the posted total is in a range from 145 to 149.5 points. Tonight, with the Cats wanting to push the tempo and play small ball and the Boilermakers willing to engage in some running and quick transition points as they take advantage of the raucous atmosphere in West Lafayette, look for the over to improve to 8-4 in Purdue's last 12 games against Big East opposition. This should be a wildly entertaining early-season affair. 10* OVER the total in Purdue early Monday evening |
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11-13-16 | Nuggets +7 v. Blazers | Top | 105-112 | Push | 0 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #709 Sunday - 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (+) @ Portland Trail Blazers @ 9:05 ET - Even though this is a back to back spot for the Nuggets, it also is a revenge spot for Denver and I expect a huge effort from them here. The Nuggets lost at home to the Trail Blazers by a bucket on October 29th and that ruined Denver's home opener. Now it is time for payback in this spot and I'll gladly take advantage of a line that opened up as low as a 4 but is now all the way up to a 7 on gameday morning. Portland is 6-4 on the season but they're average margin of victory in the 6 wins is only 5.3 points per game and only twice out of all ten games this season have the Blazers won by more than 6 points. The Nuggets are a big value in this price range because in their 9 games this season they only have 3 losses by more than 3 points. In other words, as you can see from the above, the likelihood is that Denver is "in this one" all the way especially given the revenge angle here too. The Nuggets have been strong on the road this season with a 5-1 ATS mark while Portland has struggled in games projected to be high scoring as they are 1-5 ATS in games with a posted total of 210 or greater. Overall, the Trail Blazers are only 1-4 ATS in home games. Even though this is a back to back for the Nuggets they have two straight off days coming up after tonight's game so they will definitely leave it all on the floor tonight as they go for revenge. Blazers playing for 4th time in 6 nights so they are not exactly at their freshest either. 10* DENVER NUGGETS Sunday |
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11-13-16 | Cowboys v. Steelers -3 | Top | 35-30 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
Non-Conf Game of the Year - Rickenbach NFL Game #272 Sunday - 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Steelers (-) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 PM ET - Beautiful set-up here and one that I have had my eyes on for quite some time. The Cowboys have now won and covered 7 straight games while the Steelers have now lost and failed to cover 3 straight games. The key in looking at these two teams is that Pittsburgh is very hungry, at home, and has Ben Roethlisberger ready to go in his 2nd game back with the rust shaken off last week. Dallas has been fortunate with playing a much easier schedule in comparison with the Steelers. The Cowboys have gone 2-1 in the NFC East games (but easily could (should!) be 0-3 in those games. Outside of their division they have gone 5-0 but not a single one of those teams has a winning record and 3 of the games have come against the 3 worst teams in the league (Cleveland, San Francisco, Chicago). The combined record of the 5 teams Dallas has played outside of their division is 10-31-1 and, again, I reiterate they easily could be 0-3 in their division. They did lose to the Giants but got very lucky to beat Redskins (Washington was going into the end zone to make it a two possession game in 4th quarter when disaster struck) and also lucky to beat Eagles (Philly had huge lead and made questionable coaching decisions in game eventually won by Dallas in OT). This is the beginning of a tough stretch in the schedule for the Cowboys and with the Tony Romo/Dak Prescott controversy about to reach a fever pitch, you are about to see Dallas implode over the remainder of this season. Just look at their remaining schedule and you'll see what I am talking about. But here his is our opportunity to get in on the "ground floor" of this implosion because it starts today with having to travel to face a fired up Steelers team that was considered a prime Super Bowl contender before this season started. Keep in mind, the Roethlisberger injury certainly hurt them as they were 4-1 on the year going into the game in which he got hurt. Look for him to have a big game today as the Cowboys pass defense has been susceptible at times this season. They allowed an average of 320.3 passing yards per game against Green Bay, Chicago, and Washington. Dallas is only 10-12 ATS in games where the line is between +3 and -3 and the Cowboys are also on a long-term 10-17 ATS run in games against the AFC North. The Steelers are 6-1 SU and ATS when they are a home favorite of 3 points or less. Also, Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU (and 4-1 ATS) when they are off of a loss against a division rival. Off of a tough loss at Baltimore last week (outgained Ravens) look for the Steelers to bounce back as they improve on their 12-4 record in games against teams with a winning record. The home team will be at its best for this game while you see the Cowboys finally get knocked off of their perch as they're exposed for their fortunate schedule and lucky early-season bounces of the ball. 10* Top Play PITTSBURGH STEELERS Sunday |
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11-13-16 | Winnipeg v. BC -5 | Top | 31-32 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
CFL Top Play - Rickenbach CFL Game #280 Sunday - 10* Top Play BC Lions (-) vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 4:30 ET - Just like in the NFL when divisional foes end up matching up in the post-season following a regular season sweep, it is so difficult to beat a team 3 times in the same season. BC has revenge on their minds in a big way here because they not only lost both regular season match-ups this season, they also lost both of them last season as well. However, what could be any sweeter than playoff revenge? The fact is that the Lions have lost these recent match-ups because of turnovers. Statistically, BC has fared just fine against the Blue Bombers but they've lost the turnover count by a ridiculous count as Winnipeg has just 2 turnovers compared to 15 for the Lions in the last 4 games. Even with this very unusual turnover ratio, the last 3 wins for the Blue Bombers have ALL come by 3 points or less. Of course Winnipeg should have won huge given those turnover numbers. You see my point? BC is the superior team and they'll take care of the football Sunday and they'll get the sweetest revenge of all - playoff revenge - as they send the Blue Bombers packing. When the Lions are off of a divisional game this season they are 9-1 ATS. When Winnipeg is playing a team with a winning record, they have lost 18 of 23 games the past three seasons combined. 10* BC Lions Sunday afternoon |
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11-13-16 | Dolphins v. Chargers OVER 48 | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
AFC Total of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Game #267/268 Sunday - 10* Top Play OVER in San Diego Chargers vs Miami Dolphins @ 4 PM ET - The Chargers linebacking corps continues to deal with a cluster of injuries and this has severely weakened a San Diego defense that allowed 25 points per game last season and is now allowing 27.4 points per game this season. The Dolphins comes into this game with plenty of confidence as they have won 3 straight games and averaged 28.3 points per game in the process. That means that they will enjoy plenty of success against a hobbled Chargers linebacking group as the Dolphins attack the middle of the field. The key to this play however is the fact that Miami has little chance of enjoying success against Philip Rivers and Company. Rivers is one of the elite QBs in the NFL and he has helped lead the Chargers to 34 points per game in their 4 home games this season. In their final home game last season, San Diego put up 30 points on the Dolphins while eclipsing the 300 mark in passing yards. Miami will again struggle to stop the San Diego attack. While it looks like the Dolphins pass defense has been performing well recently, keep in mind they faced 3 of the worst passing offenses in the league (Tennessee, New York Jets, and Buffalo) and in their other recent game they faced Pittsburgh but knocked starting QB Ben Roethlisberger out of the game. That said, looking back at their first 4 games this season (and even though they faced the pathetic Browns once), Miami allowed 272.5 passing yards per game. The Chargers come into this game having averaged 318.8 passing yards per game in their last 5 games not against teams named the Broncos - Denver #1 in pass defense this season! The point is San Diego should be able to move the ball at will against the Miami D and the Dolphins O will enjoy plenty of success against a Chargers defense hurt (literally!) by injuries. Also, the over is 6-1 in Chargers games played on grass this season with the lone under coming when they hosted Denver! The over is also 4-1 in Miami's games played on grass this season with the lone under coming in the game when they knocked Roethlisberger out of the contest. 10* OVER in San Diego Sunday |
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11-12-16 | Minnesota v. Nebraska -6.5 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
Contrarian Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Game #202 Saturday - 10* Top Play Nebraska Cornhuskers (-) vs Minnesota Golden Gophers @ 7:30 ET - This line has dropped from a -8 down to a -6 and, of course, much of this has to do with the uncertainty of Tommy Armstrong, Jr being cleared to play for Saturday's game. The key here in my mind is that, even if he does not play and it ends up being senior QB Ryker Fyfe that gets the call, the Cornhuskers are still going to annihilate the Golden Gophers here. Minnesota has a nice-looking record but look at who they've beaten! Minny has wins over an FCS school, 2 non-conf FBS schools that are a combined 7-11 this season, and then their 4 Big Ten wins have come against teams that are a combined 5-19 in the conference. Nebraska's Big Ten wins at least include a pair of teams (Indiana and Northwestern) who at least are at .500 in conference action this season. Also, in non-conf action they absolutely blasted a Wyoming team that is now 7-2 on the season. The Huskers have played a much tougher schedule and will be stronger for it in this game. After back to back losses at Wisconsin and Ohio State, the Cornhuskers are happy to be back home and this is a night game at Memorial Stadium in Lincoln which means the atmosphere will be insane! Nebraska also has revenge from a rare home loss to Minny when the Gophers visited 2 years ago. That means it is payback time in this rematch at home. It was some measure of revenge for the Huskers when they blasted the Golden Gophers by 23 in Minnesota last season but now they want a taste of that in Lincoln too! Minny is 3-7 ATS when they enter a game off of back to back wins. Also, Minnesota is 0-7 ATS in their next game after facing Purdue (big rivalry). Also, the Gophers are 0-5 ATS as road dogs of less than 20 points or less when they're off of a game where they scored more than 35 points. That system fits as well here and that means we've got a 15-0 ATS combined mark in favor of the Huskers here because Nebraska is also 3-0 ATS when they enter a game off of back to back losses. They are the better team, they're at home, and Ryker Fyfe did throw for over 400 yards in a rare start last season (against Purdue). The Huskers are rallying around this situation with Tommy Armstrong Jr and, no matter who ends up under center, the Cornhuskers are ready to respond after last week's embarrassing loss. 10* NEBRASKA Saturday |
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11-12-16 | LSU -7 v. Arkansas | Top | 38-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
THE Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFB Game #169 Saturday - 10* Top Play LSU Tigers (-) @ Arkansas @ 7 ET - Other than Alabama, clearly a team in a class of their own, teams just don't beat LSU in Baton Rouge. It is a rare occurrence and, when it does happen, the Tigers almost always get their revenge in the next meeting. Last week's loss to Alabama for LSU was the first time they've lost at home since Arkansas beat them last season. The Razorbacks beat the Tigers by 17 in Baton Rouge last year to hand LSU its worst home loss since Ole Miss beat them by 18 back in 2008. Needless to say, that makes this a huge revenge spot for LSU and the situation is set up perfectly. The Tigers are off of a 10-0 home shutout versus the Crimson Tide last week while Arkansas is off of a huge revenging 31-10 win versus Florida last week. The Hogs wanted that game badly as they were off of a thorough embarrassment in their prior game (at Auburn) and they had lost to the Gators by 20 points in their most recent game (in coach Bret Bielema's first year in Arkansas). Even though LSU is off of a key game (Alabama) which they wanted badly, the fact that they suffered a home shutout and the fact that they only have a non-conference opponent (South Alabama) on deck ensures that the Tigers will be ready for this revenge opportunity. Arkansas has not won back to back games since mid-September and their defense allows nearly 100 yards more per game than the Tigers defense does. LSU has lost by 17 points to Arky in each of the last two meetings and that adds fuel to the fire for this rematch as the Tigers did lose by a 17-0 count in their last visit to Fayetteville. LSU is on a 10-5 ATS run as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points while Arkansas is on a 5-8 ATS run as a home dog of 3.5 to 7 points. The last 6 times that LSU lost a game and were held to 10 points or less, they have won the next game ALL 6 TIMES and gone 5-1 ATS in those games with the lone non-cover coming up just 1 point short. The Tigers bounce back again here, plus get some payback in this double revenge spot, and they catch Arkansas flat off of their huge win over the Gators last week. 10* LSU Tigers Saturday |
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11-11-16 | Indiana v. Kansas -6 | Top | 103-99 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
ESPN Top Play - Rickenbach CBB Game #776 Friday - 10* Top Play Kansas Jayhawks (-) vs Indiana Hoosiers @ 9:30 PM ET in Armed Forces Classic @ Joint Base in Pearl Harbor, Hawaii - The Hoosiers are ranked far too high in my opinion. Yes the Hoosiers are a very talented group but they didn't have a lot of time to jell together in the offseason and to try to create team chemistry as a group. Also, not having lone senior Collin Hartman for this game against Kansas certainly hurts IU. Including him with four key losses (Biefeldt, Ferrell, Williams, Zeisloft) from last season's team means the Hoosiers will be without 50.3 points and 18.8 rebounds per game for this season opener. Yes, there is a lot of talent that will be on the floor tonight for the Hoosiers but they're facing a stacked Kansas team that absolutely could win it all this season and, keep in mind, the Hoosiers allowed an average of 71.7 points per game last season with a positive point differential of only 5.7 points per game. The Jayhawks allowed only 67.6 points per game and they had a positive point differential of 13.7 points per game. Even though the Jayhawks lost a pair of top starters in Perry Ellis and Wayne Selden, Kansas returns three starters plus a pair of McDonalds All-Americans. One of those is Josh Jackson who, along with returnees Frank Mason and Devonte Graham gives the Jayhawks arguably the top trio of players in the nation once Jackson goes through the early season adjustment that is normal for a freshman at the collegiate level. Also, with 7 footer Udoka Azubuike joining 6'10 returnee Landen Lucas, Kansas should continue to dominate the boards (3rd in Big 12 for rebounding margin last year). The Jayhawks ranked in the top 5 in the nation last season for shooting percentage from the field overall and from 3-point land. Kansas has won the Big 12 regular-season championship 12 straight times and veteran coach Bill Self enters his 14th season with the Jayhawks. Svi Mykhailiuk could be a pleasant surprise as he is now in his 3rd season and could providing significantly bigger scoring off of the bench. Having Mason and Graham (strong defenders) back also helps in terms of the team defense and Kansas has a great shot at winning it all this season. Certainly I look for them to get their season off to a strong start as I feel Indiana is without question a Top 40 team but definitely not a Top 10 team. The Hoosiers are over-valued here until all their newcomers perhaps jell later in the season. Indiana is only 4-6 SU and ATS in tournament games. The Jayhawks are a stellar 15-3 SU (and 13-5 ATS!) in tournament games the past two seasons. Lay it! 10* KANSAS Friday |
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11-11-16 | Flyers -109 v. Maple Leafs | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
Double Perfect Top - Rickenbach NHL Game #53 Friday - 10* Top Play Philadelphia Flyers Money Line (-) @ Toronto Maple Leafs @ 7:05 ET - The Maple Leafs are off of a 7-0 home loss to the LA Kings Tuesday. Toronto would love to bounce back of course but they truly "had it coming" as they have not been playing very well. The Leafs were winning but still giving up way too many shots on goal and it finally caught up with them against Los Angeles. The Maple Leafs have allowed more than 40 shots on goal in 3 of their last 4 games and they'll now be challenged by a Flyers club that is off of back to back losses. Only once this season has Philly lost three straight and remember they had one of the best runs in the league from January through April of last season. Brayden Schenn is moving back to being a top line left winger after spending some time as a 3rd line center for the Flyers. Look for Schenn's reuniting with Claude Giroux and Wayne Simmonds on the top line to give Philadelphia a boost. They were flat against the Red Wings Wednesday. While many will be looking to the Maple Leafs for a response here, this is a Toronto club that has lost 42 of 59 games when they are off of a contest where they were held to 1 goal or less! The road team has won each of the last 3 meetings between these clubs and the Flyers are already 2-0 this season when off of a loss where they were held to 2 goals or less. Philly won those two games by a combined score of 10 to 6 and they roll again here. 10* PHILADELPHIA Friday |
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11-10-16 | Sharks -105 v. Panthers | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
Top Game of the Week - Rickenbach NHL Game #7 Thursday - 10* Top Play San Jose Sharks Money Line (-) @ Florida Panthers @ 7:35 ET - The Sharks have a big situational edge here. Not only was San Jose the best team in the league last season on the road, they catch Florida in a very tough scheduling spot. Even though the Panthers are at home and had two days off before this game, they are coming off of a huge win over the in-state rival Lightning. Not only that, Florida has a huge home date with the Islanders on deck for Saturday. It was the Isles whom ended the Panthers season last spring in the playoffs and this will be the first shot that Florida has had at revenge. That said, this is truly a "sandwich spot" for the Panthers coming off of a big win over the Bolts and having a big revenge game on deck with the Islanders. The Sharks got back on track with a 3-0 road win at Washington to start off their 6-game road trip on the right foot. After some ups and downs early this season, San Jose has this road trip "circled" as an opportunity to "get right" and the Sharks won 28 of their 41 road games last season! The Panthers beat Tampa Bay on Monday by a 3-1 final and Florida is 0-3 this season when off of a win by 2 goals or more. 10* SAN JOSE money line Thursday |
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11-09-16 | Bulls +3.5 v. Hawks | Top | 107-115 | Loss | -108 | 15 h 4 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA Game #711 Wednesday - 10* Top Play Chicago Bulls (+) @ Atlanta Hawks @ 7:35 ET - The Bulls have revenge on their minds here. They lost all 4 meetings with the Hawks last season. Chicago has lost each of it's last 3 visits to Atlanta and 6 of the last 7 meetings overall. How do they rectify the situation? The Bulls catching the Hawks at the right time is a big help and that is exactly what has happened here. Chicago is catching Atlanta off of a big revenging win at Cleveland last night. Not only is this a back to back spot for the Hawks but they also had to battle all night to get past the Cavaliers last night. That sets this situation up beautifully for a Bulls upset today as the Hawks will have trouble dealing with another quality opponent in the 2nd night of a back to back and with travel involved as the Hawks had to get back to Atlanta after last night's game. The Hawks held the Cavs Irving and Smith to a combined 13 of 40 from the field and Atlanta simply won't have much left in the tank after last night's solid defensive effort. From a situational standpoint, it just doesn't get much better than this. Grab the points. 10* CHICAGO Wednesday |
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11-08-16 | Senators +145 v. Predators | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
Rickenbach NHL Game #17 Tuesday - 10* Top Play Ottawa Senators Money Line (+) @ Nashville Predators @ 8:05 ET - The Senators have allowed a total of only 3 goals in their last 4 games. Overall, the Sens had given up 1 goal or less in 4 of their 5 prior games (all 4 were wins) before a 2-1 home loss to Buffalo on Saturday. That defeat has Ottawa fired up for this game and they gave up 11 goals in losing both games to Nashville last season. It is time for a little payback and the Sens are catching the Predators at the right time. The Preds have had a rough start to the season as they are trying to make all the pieces fit after some off-season changes. Nashville has lost 8 of their last 10 games. The Predators also have a big game on deck with the division rival Blues for Thursday. The Senators are already 4-1 against the Western Conference this season and they keep that hot streak going here. 10* OTTAWA money line Tuesday |
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11-08-16 | Wolves -4 v. Nets | Top | 110-119 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
Top Blowout Smash - Rickenbach NBA Game #503 Tuesday - 10* Top Play Minnesota Timberwolves (-) @ Brooklyn Nets @ 7:35 ET - Both of these teams have injury issues at the point guard spot but it is a much worse situation for the Nets in comparison with the Timberwolves. Already without star PG Jeremy Lin, the Nets are likely to be without Greivis Vazquez (back-up PG) tonight as well. Minnesota at least has 2nd year man Tyus Jones to man the point along with rookie Kris Dunn. Though Randy Foye is expected to finally play his first game of the new season tonight, the Brooklyn shooting guard is unlikely to be in top rhythm in his very first game back. That said, Minny can focus on double-teaming Brooks Lopez down low and this effectively shuts down the Nets offense. Brooklyn has been held to 95 points or less in 2 of their last 3 games. The T-wolves, with Karl-Anthony Towns, will have the best player on the floor tonight and he and his Minnesota teammates are hungry to get back into the win column after back to back losses. On deck for the T-wolves is another non-conference match-up while the Nets have a big game on deck with the cross-town division rival Knicks. Brooklyn has the much better ATS mark in comparison with the Timberwolves early this season but that is helping to give line value to a Minny team that won both meetings with the Nets by a double digit margin last season. Teams can grow complacent when on a long homestand and Brooklyn is 4-16 ATS (and 2-18 SU!) when they enter a game having played each of their three prior games at home. The Timberwolves are 24-13 ATS in their last 37 meetings with the Nets and they add another W to that tonight as they bounce back after back to back losses. 10* MINNESOTA |
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11-07-16 | Bills +7 v. Seahawks | Top | 25-31 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
MNF Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #473 Monday - 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills (+) @ Seattle Seahawks @ 8:30 ET - The ability to get a full TD here with a dangerous underdog in a strong situation is raising this pick to Top Play rating for me. Yes, Seattle is a tough place to play and has a raucous crowd but 2 of their 3 home wins this season have come by just 2 points. Also, since their bye week in early October, the Seahawks have been outgained in each of their last 3 games. Seattle went 1-1-1 in this stretch with the lone win by just 2 points over Atlanta. Also, it is worth noting that the Seahawks most recent trip to the Super Bowl was a loss in February 2015 to the Patriots. Up next for Seattle is a trip to New England. It's impossible for Seattle coach Pete Carroll and company to not be "peeking ahead" a bit to that game. The Seahawks are 3-8 ATS in games played in Weeks 5 through 9 the past 3 seasons. The Bills are 7-3 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Buffalo is also a perfect 3-0 ATS (and SU!) their last 3 against the NFC West and also a perfect 6-0 ATS (and SU!) the last 6 times they have entered a game off of back to back losses. That's a 9-0, 100% run that supports an outright upset here and I am grabbing the points here. Look for the Bills rushing ability (with LeSean McCoy now healthier) to be a difference maker here as they are averaging 154 rushing yards per game (compared to Seattle's 81.4 per game on the ground). With solid defense (allowed 16.2 points per game their last 5 games prior to bad loss to NE) and a strong ground game, the Bills have the right recipe for hanging tough with the Seahawks at CenturyLink Field in Seattle. 10* BUFFALO BILLS Monday Night |
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11-07-16 | Rockets v. Wizards OVER 216 | Top | 114-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
#1 Top Play - Rickenbach NBA Game #703/704 Monday - 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Wizards vs Houston Rockets @ 7:05 ET - The Rockets have a big game on deck at San Antonio so I don't expect their defensive intensity to be at it's best for this non-conference match-up with the Wizards. Houston has already allowed 50.6% or better from the field in 3 of their 5 road games this season. The Rockets gave up an average of 120 points per game in those 3 games. The Wizards will have John Wall back after he rested in their most recent game. Washington shot poorly on the road in their Saturday game as Wall sat out. The Wizards also shot poorly in their 2nd home game of the season but in their 1st one they shot 58.3% from the field and I look for the Wiz to bounce back after a day off followed rare, poor shooting on back to back nights. The Rockets also are looking to respond off a 112-97 loss at Atlanta Saturday and Houston has gone 24-15 to the over when off of a loss by a double digit margin. With this total dropping from it's opener there is even more value with the over and I will make this my first top of the season in what should be a very high-scoring affair with the Wizards also in a lookahead with Boston on deck. Not a lot of defense is likely to be seen in this non-conference match-up given the situation. 10* OVER the total in Washington Monday evening |
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11-06-16 | Colts v. Packers OVER 53.5 | Top | 31-26 | Win | 100 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
Non-Conf Total of the Year - Rickenbach NFL Game #467/468 Sunday - 10* Top Play OVER the total in Green Bay Packers vs Indianapolis Colts @ 4:25 ET - Look for both teams to move the ball up and down the field throughout this game. Considering that it is a November game at Lambeau Field the weather conditions couldn't be any better. The high today is expected to be in the upper 60s in Green Bay with light winds and clear skies. Simply a fantastic day and even though it will cool down once the sun starts going down, you simply couldn't ask for better weather conditions in Wisconsin in November! So weather won't limit the offenses here, what about the defenses? That is also unlikely. The Colts have given up an average of 28.8 points per game this season. The Packers defensive numbers have been helped by facing 4 of the worst offenses in the league: Jacksonville, Minnesota, the Giants, and Chicago. In their other 3 games the Packers have allowed an average of 30 points per game and there is no reason each team shouldn't get to the 28 to 31 point range in this game which will make for an easy over. The Packers have thrown the ball an average of 45 times per game in their last 4 games while running the ball an average of only 22 times per game their last 3 games. The Colts, led by Andrew Luck at QB and with T.Y. Hilton back at WR for this game, are also very much a pass-heavy team. Of course you want less running and a lot of passing with a play on the over and I expect both Packers QB Aaron Rodgers and Luck to be attacking downfield throughout this game as both defenses have plenty of question marks in the secondary. The Colts game stayed under the total last week but previously Indy was 6-1 to the over this season. Also, Indy is certainly going to be pushing hard all the way to the final whistle in this one as they have their bye week on deck. As an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points the Colts have gone 7-2 to the over. Indianapolis is also on a 13-4 run to the over in games played on a grass field. As a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points, the Colts have gone 31-14 to the over. Each of the last 5 games in this series have gone over the total. Look for another one here. 10* OVER in Green Bay |
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11-06-16 | Saints v. 49ers +5 | Top | 41-23 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
Contrarian Top Play - Rickenbach NFL Game #464 Sunday - Rickenbach NFL 10* Top Play San Francisco 49'ers (+) vs New Orleans Saints @ 4:05 ET - No one will want the 49'ers here but contrarian handicapping is something that has treated me very well in NFL through the years. The key to this play is the situational aspect and the corresponding line value. The Saints are off of a huge win at home as they knocked off Seattle at the Superdome. Now, New Orleans has to try to "get up" for a 49'ers team that has only won one game this season and comes into this week on a 6-game winning streak. Making matters worse for the Saints is that they have games against Denver and Carolina on deck. The Panthers are a division rival who was in the Super Bowl last year. The Broncos won the Super Bowl last year and lost it two years prior to that. The Seahawks were who won the Super Bowl that year over Denver and then Seattle lost the Super Bowl the next year. The point is that New Orleans has a stretch of 4 games here filled with teams that have been among the NFL's elite in recent seasons. In the middle of all this is a trip to the West Coast to face a 49'ers team that has been among the worst in the league this season. If ever there is a spot for the Saints to fall flat this is absolutely it and I feel strongly that San Francisco is ripe to take advantage. The 49'ers will be ready (both mentally and physically) after a much needed bye week. The Niners are on a 10-5 ATS run as a home dog. The Saints per game averages for the offense are 10 points less and 128 yards less when they are on the road compared to when they are home. Also, New Orleans is on an ugly 1-8 ATS skid as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. What is even more amazing about that is that the Saints have lost 7 of those 9 games outright! I definitely would not be surprised to see another outright upset here but certainly the value here is with the big points being offered to the 49'ers. 10* SAN FRANCISCO |
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11-05-16 | Utah State v. Wyoming -4 | Top | 28-52 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
MW Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFB Game #380 Saturday - 10* Top Play Wyoming Cowboys (-) vs Utah State Aggies @ 10:15 ET - Wyoming was as high as a 7 point fave but has now dropped to a -4 as of gameday morning. The line move is completely understood as many are looking to fade the Cowboys off of their big upset win over Boise State. The reason that angle does not concern me is four fold. 1) Utah State is not a good football team. 2) Wyoming is home for a 2nd straight week. 3) The Cowboys win over the Broncos was not the pinnacle of their season as they still have their sites set on winning the Mountain Division. 4) Revenge is a huge motivating factor and Wyoming has lost each of their last 4 match-ups with Utah State by an average margin of 30 points per defeat! As you can see, despite the big win over Boise last week, there is no way Wyoming is going to come out flat for this game. On the "off chance" that they did however, I would still expect coach Craig Bohl to rally the troops at half-time and this line is very manageable. I just don't see the Cowboys losing at home here and being able to lay just 4 is a huge value. Utah State has only 3 wins this season and those came against an FCS school, a Sun Belt team, and Fresno State - the worst MW team in the conference. The Aggies are off of a 40-13 demolishing loss at San Diego State last week and Utah State has gone 1-6 ATS when they are off of a game where they allowed more than 35 points and are then facing a team who is off of back to back SU wins. In this case, the red hot Cowboys have won 4 straight games and the roll should continue Saturday. Wyoming is 8-1 ATS when they are off of back to back SU wins and facing a conference opponent. Also, the Cowboys are 5-1 ATS when they are a home favorite of more than 3 points and playing in a revenge opportunity versus and opponent off of a SU loss by a double digit margin. 10* WYOMING |
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11-05-16 | Virginia Tech v. Duke OVER 54 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
Top Total Annihilation - Rickenbach CFB Game #335/336 Saturday - 10* Top Play OVER the total in Duke Blue Devils vs Virginia Tech Hokies @ 3:30 ET - The Blue Devils are off of a 38-35 loss at Georgia Tech as they battled back from a big deficit but still fell short. Duke had 559 yards of offense last week and they're perfectly capable of putting up big numbers when they're not facing a tough D (Louisville 3 weeks ago) or playing in a rain storm (Army 4 weeks ago). Other than those 2 games, the Blue Devils have averaged 292.8 passing yards per game on the season! That is significant in looking at this match-up because Virginia Tech (other than their game at UNC played in a rain storm 4 weeks ago) has allowed an average of 342 passing yards per game in their last 4 games. The strength of the Hokies this season (it's a new era in Blacksburg) has truly been the offense and that O (not including the game played during hurricane Matthew) has averaged 477.6 yards per game! Duke is not going to "lay down" at home but the Blue Devils defense can not stop the Hokies. With ideal weather conditions also expected for this one, there is no reason not to expect a back and forth high-scoring affair. In games where Virginia Tech was a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points, the over has gone 3-1 (75%). Also, other than the hurricane Matthew game, Hokies games are 5-2 (71%) to the over this season! The Blue Devils are 4-1 (80%) to the over as a home dog of 10.5 to 14 points and also 4-1 (80%) to the over the last 5 times they have entered a game off of back to back SU losses. 10* OVER in Duke |
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11-04-16 | Jets v. Red Wings OVER 5.5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 123 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
TV Game of the Week - Rickenbach NHL Game #3/4 Friday - 10* Top Play OVER 5.5 goals in Detroit Red Wings vs Winnipeg Jets @ 7:35 ET - Winnipeg rallied for 3 goals in the 3rd period at Washington last night. Even though the Jets still lost the game it certainly gives them confidence heading to Detroit for tonight's back to back situation. The Jets know they need to get off to a quicker start but, at times, they have shown early this season that they can rally back from deficits and it has been in streaks in which they've done this. That said, I am expecting this could be another one of those stretches and it should result in a high-scoring game at Joe Louis Arena tonight because the Red Wings are going to be pushing hard in this one. The Red Wings gave up a late goal and then lost in overtime to the Flyers on Wednesday. Detroit was up 2-0 after one period. The Red Wings then got outshot by a 32-16 margin the rest of the way in falling short at Philly. That continued an amazing stretch whereby Detroit has not won at Philly in 20 years! Needless to say, the Red Wings are ticked off about it and they'll definitely be staying aggressive in the offensive zone throughout this game because they don't want to blow another late lead. That sets this one up to be a very high scoring game on Friday night. The last 69 times the Jets are off of a game where they allowed 4 goals or more, they have stayed under the total just 27 times. The Red Wings are 4-1 to the over this season in their games against teams with a losing record. Look for more of the same Friday. 10* OVER 5.5 goals in Detroit |
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11-04-16 | Winnipeg v. Ottawa +4.5 | Top | 33-20 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
Contrarian TOP PLAY - Rickenbach CFL Game #476 Friday - 10* Top Play Ottawa Redblacks (+) vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 7 ET - This is truly a contrarian play. Everyone is backing the Blue Bombers here because they "need to win" in hopes of getting a home playoff game. This line has already moved 4 points from a pick'em on Winnipeg to now being a 4.5 point favorite as of early Friday morning. The Blue Bombers just lost badly to the Redblacks at home last week and Winnipeg didn't even get into the end zone until the final seconds of the game. However, even though Ottawa is resting starting QB Henry Burris for this game (and some banged up regulars may rest too), the Redblacks aren't going to just "lay down" for this game. They want to win. They have earned the home field game for the post-season which is coming their way in two weeks but they also haven't won a home game since late September. In their two October home games they lost each one in OT. The Redblacks have the better defense in this match-up. They had an excellent game plan against the Blue Bombers which they used to get the W in Winnipeg last week and Ottawa wants to chalk up a W on their home field to go into the post-season with positive momentum and with finally notching a home W after some recent tight losses there. Grab the underdog value as Winnipeg is only 7-7 SU as a favorite the past three seasons and they've only gone 4-10 ATS in those 14 games! The Redblacks are on a 6-1 ATS run in November games! 10* OTTAWA Friday |
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11-04-16 | Central Michigan v. Miami (OH) OVER 46.5 | Top | 17-37 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
Earliest Cash TOP PLAY - Rickenbach CFB Game #317/318 Friday - 10* Top Play OVER in Miami (OH) Redhawks vs Central Michigan Chippewas @ 6 ET - This total has dropped from a 48 to a 46.5 as of gameday morning. This is offering up nice line value on the over here because, even though the Redhawks have gone 7-2 to the under this season, their 'style' has changed in recent weeks thanks to QB Gus Ragland who has completed 47 of 79 for 571 passing yards with 8 TDs and 0 interceptions. He has replaced the injured Billy Bahl and Miami has won three straight games. They now face a fired up Central Michigan team that has lost back to back games. The Chippewas came out flat after their loss to Toledo the prior week and they ended up losing a tight one at home against Kent State. The Chips have a senior QB in Cooper Rush who can throw all over a Miami defense that has allowed 717 passing yards the past two games! The Chippewas have averaged 282.7 passing yards per game this season and Rush already has 21 passing TD's on the year. The problem for the Chips is their run defense has been gashed for 184.6 rushing yards per game their past 7 games. The Redhawks come into this game having run for 222 yards per game the past two weeks as Ragland's success in the passing game is keeping defenses honest and opening up plenty of opportunities for the ground game. As you can see from the above, both of these teams should enjoy plenty of success moving the ball in this one and the weather conditions - light winds and clear skies - are perfect for an over tonight. Look for the over to improve to 3-1 the L4 in Redhawks games where they are a home dog of 3.5 to 7 points. The over is also a perfect 3-0 this season in Central Michigan games against teams with a losing record. 10* Top Play OVER in Miami (OH) Friday |
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11-03-16 | Falcons -3.5 v. Bucs | Top | 43-28 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
RARE Thursday TOP - Rickenbach NFL Game #307 Thursday - 10* Top Play Atlanta Falcons (-) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 8:25 ET - The Falcons have big time revenge on their minds here. Not only did they lose their season opener at home against the Buccaneers this season, Atlanta also lost both match-ups with the Bucs last season. The fact is we are getting line value here because this game is being played at Tampa Bay. That is helping to keep the chalk here much smaller than it would be if this game was being played in Atlanta. How much will home field help the Buccaneers here? Well, they allowed 626 yards to the Raiders here last week and they are on a 7-22 ATS skid as home dogs so I would say home field is unlikely to be a deciding factor in this one! Truly the Bucs defense has been shredded for much of this season because the only games where TB thrived on defense was when they faced some of the most anemic offenses in the league (SF, LA, and Denver yards per game very unimpressive). In Tampa's other 4 games they've allowed an average of 353 passing yards per game! Atlanta, #1 offense in the league, is going to shred the Bucs defense Thursday. The Falcons are averaging 33 points per game this season and the Buccaneers have been held to 24 points or less in 4 of their last 6 games. The Falcons are on a 9-2 ATS run on Thursdays while the Bucs are 1-5 ATS in Thursday games. Atlanta is 4-0 ATS on the road this season and Tampa Bay is 0-3 ATS at home this season. The Buccaneers are 1-6 ATS as divisional dogs when facing an opponent who is seeking revenge. I fully expect Atlanta to get their revenge in a big way tonight and the systems above add to up a combined 27-4 (87%) ATS mark in favor of the Falcons. 10* ATLANTA FALCONS Thursday |
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11-02-16 | Cubs v. Indians +109 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
Post-Season Game of the Year - Rickenbach MLB Game #902 Wednesday - 10* Top Play Cleveland Indians Money Line (+) vs Chicago Cubs @ 8:05 ET - This is the set-up I wanted for my biggest play of the post-season and, if it didn't happen then it simply didn't happen but here it is and here I am! The Cubs managed to force a Game 7 and they now hand the ball to Kyle Hendricks who certainly has had a great season both in the regular season and in the post-season. However, all 4 of his starts in the playoffs have come at home. In his only post-season road start last year he allowed 3 homers. In his most recent regular season road start he got rocked for 4 earned runs by the Reds on October 2nd. Overall on the season, Hendricks was only 7-6 on the road with an ERA that was 1.63 runs higher away from home in comparison with his starts at Wrigley Field. The Indians have a big edge here in Game 7 as they hand the ball to their ace and plus they have the home field edge. Corey Kluber gets the start and the Indians are 13-1 in his last 14 home starts! He has not allowed an earned run in his 3 post-season starts at home in these playoffs and that is a stretch of 19 and 1/3 scoreless innings! Overall, Kluber has a 13-2 record since the All Star break and he is fully capable of shutting down the Cubs at Progressive Field tonight. He's already proven in this series that he can shut down the Cubbies on short rest and I expect him to do it again here. Look for the Indians to improve to 16-2 in Kluber's last 18 starts as the Cubs "curse" continues. It's been a great rally for Chicago to tie this series up but the Indians have the big pitching edge plus home field for the all important Game 7 Wednesday. 10* CLEVELAND INDIANS money line Wednesday |
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11-01-16 | Cubs v. Indians OVER 7 | Top | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
Top Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #951/952 Tuesday - 10* Top Play OVER in Cleveland Indians vs Chicago Cubs @ 8 ET - Unbelievably mild air in Cleveland for this time of year. Temperatures will be near 70 degrees at the time of the first pitch in this one at Progressive Field. The wind is expected to be blowing out to center at a decent clip (10 mph) and couple that with the mild air and these teams getting a 2nd shot at starting pitchers they just recently faced and you have the makings of a solid over here. This total is current sitting at a 7 and the Cubs are 10-4 to the over this season in road games with a posted total of 7 runs or less. The Indians are 5-1 to the over this season in home games with a posted total of 7 runs or less. The Cubs Jake Arrieta pitched well at Cleveland earlier in the series but previously he had compiled a 6.75 ERA in his 4 prior road starts. The Indians Josh Tomlin pitched well in his most recent home start but previously he had compiled a 5.59 ERA in his 4 prior home starts. 10* OVER in Cleveland Tuesday |
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10-30-16 | Eagles +5 v. Cowboys | Top | 23-29 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
Primetime Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Game #271 Sunday - 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 8:30 ET - Anything that changes a team momentum is a problem when that momentum was positive. Earlier this season we saw the Eagles start the year 3-0 and the electric start was culminated with a dominating win over the Steelers and that was when Ben Roethlisberger was healthy. After that game, the Eagles then lost a heartbreaker late at Detroit. That seemed to change their momentum as the very next week they were "flat" for their game against a division rival - the Redskins - and, of course, that is completely inexcusable. The Eagles responded the next week with another dominating effort (21-10 over Minnesota) and needless to say, Philly learned their lesson. That said, there is no way they're going to come out flat again versus a divisional foe. This is a key primetime match-up that brings out the best in teams and Philadelphia knows they can ill afford dropping into a 0-2 hole in divisional games. The Cowboys have now rattled off 5 straight wins (and 5 straight covers) so what possibly could be the problem? Besides the fact that the Eagles (when motivated) have won 4 games all by double digits and by an average margin of 19 points, the Cowboys had a momentum-killing bye week. When a team is struggling they relish a bye week to get back on track but truly the bye week at this time was the last thing Dallas needed. The Cowboys also have gone from being a 4 point fave here to as high as a 5.5 as of mid-morning on gameday. This is a Dallas team that on a 7-19 ATS run as a divisional home favorite while the Eagles are on a 15-3 ATS run as a divisional road dog! The visitor has won each of the last 6 meetings between these teams so home field has not meant much at all in recent meetings between these teams and yet Dallas is attracting a lot of attention in this match-up. The Eagles have not turned the ball over in 4 of their 6 games this season and their defense has been one of the best in the league with only 307 yards allowed per game. Only once did Philly allow more than 222 yards passing in a game. Dallas has allowed 294 yards or more through the air in 3 of their last 5 games. The Cowboys are on a 0-9-1 ATS run when they are favored against an NFC team that has a winning percentage of .666 or better. Head coach Jason Garrett has a 2-11 ATS mark as a home favorite when facing an opponent off of a SU win. Garrett also is 1-7 ATS as a fave of 3 or more points against a team with a winning record. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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10-30-16 | Chargers v. Broncos -3.5 | Top | 19-27 | Win | 100 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
AFC West Game of the Year - Rickenbach NFL Game #268 Sunday - 10* Top Play Denver Broncos (-) vs San Diego Chargers @ 4:05 ET - This line has dropped from a -6.5 to a -3.5 as of early Sunday morning and it is now "go time" with Denver in this one. The Broncos have one of the top defenses in the league. They also are #1 in the league for sack percentage at 10.7% and the Chargers do struggle to protect QB Philip Rivers. I have all the respect in the world for Rivers but he's in for a tough outing. We all say what happened Monday night when Denver "wanted it" against Houston and now we're going to see what happens when the Broncos "want it" against the Chargers. This is a revenge game for Denver and they outgained the Bolts by 40 yards in San Diego but managed to lose the game by 8 points. It's time for a little payback and, with the ground game going again (190 rushing yards versus Houston in MNF) and with the defense having held Rivers and Co to just 166 passing yards in the first match-up, there is no reason in the world this line should have dropped as much as it did. Time to step in and take advantage. The Chargers are off of their huge come-from-behind win at Atlanta last week (trailed Falcons by 17 in 2nd quarter) and won't have enough left in the tank to take down the Broncos a 2nd time in 18 days. Denver is on a 20-9 ATS run in AFC West games. The Broncos entered this season 7-0 ATS when they are off of a non-divisional game and facing a team off of an upset win as an underdog. The Chargers are 0-5 ATS as divisional dogs when they are off of a SU win as a dog. The Broncos defense has not allowed more than 23 points all season long. The Chargers defense has allowed 30 points or more in 3 of their last 4 games. Denver 30, San Diego 23 gets us the cash here but I expect an even much bigger margin of victory here and that's why this is a Top Play for me. With the line move, the better defense, and a resurgent ground game there is huge value with the Broncos here. 10* DENVER |
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10-29-16 | Auburn v. Ole Miss +5 | Top | 40-29 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
Contrarian Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFB Game #180 Saturday - 10* Top Play Ole Miss Rebels (+) vs Auburn Tigers @ 7:15 ET - As long-time followers know, I like to be a contrarian. The very first numbers that popped up on this game when the lines came out mid-day Sunday showed Ole Miss as a -1.5 favorite! Now, as of early Saturday morning, the line is all the way up to -5 on Auburn. That is a swing of nearly a full TD on this line. Of course I completely understand the move. The Tigers have been moving the ball extremely well on the ground and the Rebels have been struggling to stop the run. Also, Ole Miss has been known for 2nd half struggles so far this season while Auburn has been dominating teams of late. With all that said, every week is a new week and Ole Miss is now at home, in a must win spot, and they are catching Auburn off of an easy win that will have them overconfident. I would not be surprised to see the Rebels get the upset in Oxford Saturday evening but certainly am grabbing the generous points being offered. Ole Miss, before last week's poor effort on the road, had been 6-0 ATS when they were an underdog off of a SU loss. Though that streak suffered a loss last week, look for the Rebels to bounce back big at home. The defense of Mississippi is tired of hearing all about their shortcomings and not being able to stop the run. When you are at home, off of back to back road losses, and constantly being told about an inability to do something, you often will step up the very next change you get. Make no mistake about it, the Rebels at home are fired up for this game and the defense is going to be flying all over the field. I know Auburn has looked great of late. I won't deny that. However, the Tigers beat LSU before they fired Les Miles. They were struggling under Miles. Then, Auburn's other wins during this streak included beating a Sun Belt team (UL Monroe) and a Mississippi State team that is now 2-5 on the season. Yes, the Tigers flattened Arkansas last week but that is one game. The point is that Auburn's 4-game winning streak is impressive but has a couple of asterisks on it and I can guarantee you that Ole Miss is not going to "hand this game" to the Tigers! I look for the Rebels to play their best game of the season and this is a team that is averaging 37 points per game on the season. Also, Mississippi is on a 15-3 SU (and 13-5 ATS) run in home games. In games played on turf the Rebels are on a 37-18 ATS run. Look for the Tigers to drop to 1-9 ATS their last 10 in games the week before facing Vandy. Also, Auburn was 2-8 ATS in regular season non-home games before getting that road win and cover at Mississippi State three weeks ago. The point is that they are not exactly road warriors and yet they are being bet like they are this week. I'll gladly grab the value on the other side and I expect an upset but will take the generous points. 10* OLE MISS REBELS Saturday |
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10-29-16 | Penn State v. Purdue OVER 56.5 | Top | 62-24 | Win | 100 | 5 h 16 m | Show |
High Noon Top Total - Rickenbach CFB Game #139/140 Saturday - 10* Top Play OVER 56.5 in Purdue Boilermakers vs Penn State Nittany Lions @ Noon ET - The Nittany Lions are off of their huge upset win over Ohio State last week. That is going to lead to a lack of defensive intensity for this one. That spells trouble against a Purdue team that can put up big yardage through the air. The Boilermakers have thrown for 767 yards the past two weeks. Purdue is averaging 31 points per game at home and the over is on a 11-6 run in their home games. However, the Boilermakers defense, as usual, is a glaring weakness and they won't be able to stop the Nittany Lions offense. While the PSU scoreboard did not impress on offense against Ohio State and Michigan, those are two of the top teams in the nation. In Penn State's other games this season they have averaged 34.6 points per game. They'll be able to easily move the ball on the ground like they did against Maryland - 372 rushing yards! The Boilermakers are allowing an average of 249 rushing yards per game. Penn State's last 5 regular season games not played at Beaver Stadium have all gone over the total. Look for that trend to continue today at West Lafayette. 10* OVER in Purdue |
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10-28-16 | Edmonton +2.5 v. Hamilton | Top | 29-26 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
East-West Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFL Game #275 Friday - 10* Top Play Edmonton Eskimos (+) @ Hamilton Tiger-Cats @ 7 ET - Situations don't get much stronger than this. Back on July 23rd, the Eskimos were up 24-6 at halftime in Edmonton against the Tiger-Cats. The final score in that game was a Hamilton win by a count of 37-31. Rest assured, the Eskimos haven't forgotten that game. Also, this game is big in the playoff picture and, while Edmonton is 4-4 on the road and 4-4 at home as well as 5-5 in the division and 3-3 outside of the division the key factoid on the disparity in these teams is in looking at Hamilton. The Tiger-Cats are 5-2 in the division but 2-7 outside of the division. Hamilton's 2 wins against West teams included that come-from-behind upset at Edmonton. The Eskimos get payback today. Even though Edmonton is off of a tough loss at BC, the Eskimos had a bye week the prior week so they will have their legs underneath them here as they look to bounce back from that loss. As for Hamilton, not only are they are off of a huge come-from-behind OT win over Ottawa last week, it was their 2nd straight ultra-tight battle with the Redblacks. The Ti-Cats may not have a lot left in the tank and, on deck, they have a divisional battle with Montreal while the Eskimos have another non-divisional match-up on deck. The situation clearly favors the road dog. 10* EDMONTON ESKIMOS |
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10-27-16 | Jaguars +3.5 v. Titans | Top | 22-36 | Loss | -114 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
26-0, 100% System Rout - Rickenbach NFL Game #101 - 10* Top Play Jacksonville Jaguars (+) @ Tennessee Titans @ 8:25 ET Thursday - Ever since Gus Bradley took over as head coach in Jacksonville, the Jaguars have never failed to cover a game against the Titans. It has been a 4-0-2 ATS run in this series. The Jags have gone 3-3 SU with the 3 wins including a 6 point win and 8 point win and, as for the 3 losses, the Jaguars have never lost by more than 4 points to Tennessee since Bradley became the head coach. That certainly puts this one well into the "play range" as there is value with grabbing the points here. The Titans aren't known for blowing teams out as 2 of their 3 wins this season came by 2 points or less. That means that out of all 7 of their games this season they have only won a game by more than 2 points one time. As for the Jaguars, they had won two straight games before last week's ugly loss but look closely at that defeat last week. The Jags lost by 17 but the yardage was dead even at 344 for the Jaguars and the Raiders. The difference was Jacksonville losing the turnover battle 3 to 0. Before that loss, the Jaguars were 2-3 on the season with the only blowout loss being at San Diego and that was also a turnover-driven final as the Jags outgained the Chargers 388 to 357 but lost the game by 24 points thanks in part to a 3-1 deficit in turnovers. The Titans have forced only one turnover in four home games this season so I don't expect that to be an issue for the Jaguars Thursday night. Also, Tennessee is wearing down as their bye week is not until early December. This is the Titans 5th game in 26 days whereas the Jaguars just had a bye week on the 9th of the month and will be the fresher team here. With last week's loss to the Colts, the Titans are now on a 1-8 ATS run as a favorite. Also, Tennessee is on a 1-12 ATS run in divisional games and they are disappointed about losing to another divisional foe, Indianapolis, for a 10th straight time Sunday! The Titans know they wasted a chance to solidify positioning in the standings and it is often tough to bounce back mentally after a game like that. I look for Tennessee to again struggle here. Jacksonville, in road games with a posted total between 42.5 and 45 points has failed to cover just twice in eight games! Also, there is a perfect system we are testing here. The Jaguars are 9-0 ATS when they are on the road off of an ATS loss by double digits and they are facing an opponent who is off of a SU loss as a favorite. Tennessee is 0-7 ATS in home games with a posted total between 42.5 and 45 points. The Titans are on an 0-10 ATS run when facing a division opponent who is playing with revenge (Jags lost here in last meeting of 2015). That means we are testing a 26-0, 100% ATS combined systems record here! One final note to tighten this one up even more: Tennessee entered this season with a 1-14 ATS mark when facing an opponent who is off of a loss by a double digit margin. With the Jags off of the ugly home loss to Oakland Sunday, they are the play in full bounce back mode here in this weeknight affair. 10* JACKSONVILLE Thursday Night |
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10-25-16 | Cubs v. Indians UNDER 6.5 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Game #951/952 Tuesday - 10* Top Play UNDER 6.5 in Cleveland Indians vs Chicago Cubs @ 8:05 ET - Very chilly conditions expected at Progressive Field tonight. The wind will be blowing in from center. The temperatures will be in the upper 40s and the ball will not carry very well at all given the cold dense air. Of course there also may not be a lot of contact made for the ball to even carry. Both of these hurlers - Cubs Jon Lester and Indians Corey Kluber - are capable of piling up big strikeouts. The issue for the Indians sticks could be a long layoff as they wrapped up their series with their Blue Jays on the 19th! Another concern for Cleveland is they averaged only 5 hits per game in that 5-game series with Toronto. As for the Cubs sticks, they certainly showed some life late in the series with the Dodgers. However, the Cubs now face a pitcher they haven't seen much of and the results when they have seen him were not good. In fact, the Cubs current hitters who may face Kluber tonight have combined to go only 4 of 38 lifetime against him. Kluber also has a 0.98 ERA in his three starts in this post-season. Each of those 3 starts stayed under the total. Lester also has been piling up some incredible results as he has allowed 1 earned run or less in 11 of his last 12 starts. This certainly has the makings of a 1-0 or 2-1 type game with the bullpens also rested for this Game 1 match-up. 10* UNDER 6.5 in Cleveland Tuesday Night. |
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10-23-16 | Coyotes v. Rangers OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -101 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NHL Game #55/56 Sunday - 10* Top Play OVER 5.5 goals in New York Rangers vs Arizona Coyotes @ 7:05 ET - Both clubs have a goaltending "issue" here and that makes this the perfect set-up for an over. The Rangers used Henrik Lundqvist in net last night so that means this start goes to the back-up or it is a tough back to spot for the Rangers #1 netminder. As for the Coyotes, their #1 goalie (Mike Smith) is currently out with an injury. This has certainly played a key role in the fact that Arizona has allowed 4.5 goals per game so far this season. Though the Coyotes haven't played as well in the offensive zone, they are rested and ready to attack today after yesterday's off day and they are catching the Rangers at an ideal time. Not only is this is a tough back to back for New York but this is a definite flat spot for them. The Rangers badly wanted that win over the division rival Capitals yesterday and they also now face a non-conference team they have dominated in recent meetings. In other words, there are no motivational reasons for the Rangers to bring a strong defensive effort to the ice Sunday and I expect each team to notch at least 3 goals in this one. Keep in mind, Arizona is averaging 3 goals per game on the young season despite some recent struggles on this road trip and the Rangers have scored at least 4 goals in three of their five games thus far on the season. The over is 3-1 in Coyotes games this season and 3-1-1 in Rangers games this season. Look for these trends to continue a spot that is truly a fantastic situation for another high-scoring game to break out. Non conference game, the better team off of an emotional win now looking to relax, the weaker team coming in rested but with goalie issues, etc. 10* OVER 5.5 in New York Rangers Sunday |
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10-23-16 | Patriots v. Steelers +7.5 | Top | 27-16 | Loss | -117 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
Ultimate PA Insider - Rickenbach NFL Game #474 Sunday - 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Steelers +7.5 vs New England Patriots @ 4:25 ET - Yes, the Patriots are off of back to back dominating wins since Tom Brady returned. However, those teams are a combined 2-10 on the season. Yes, the Steelers are without Ben Roethlisberger today. However, they are also a quality team that was 4-1 this season before he got hurt during the loss at Miami last week that dropped Pittsburgh to 4-2 on the season. The point is that this is still a quality Steelers team and QB Landry Jones has had ample time now to prepare as the starter for this game. After their first loss this season the Steelers responded by blasting the Chiefs 43 to 14. Granted, the Patriots certainly are not the Chiefs but, keep in mind, the Steelers don't have to blast the Pats to get the money for us here. In fact, they don't even have to win the game. All they have to do is remain competitive throughout this game and I absolutely see that happening after last week's embarrassing loss. The Steelers overall numbers on defense do not impress but they have certainly shown a lot of "bend but don't break" D this season. That is why Pittsburgh has allowed 16 points or less in all 4 of their wins! The Steelers normally are at their best against quality opposition and, in fact, have gone 12-3 SU in their last 15 games against teams with a winning record. The Patriots win at Cleveland two weeks ago was the first time they've covered as a favorite of more than 4 points in a road game against against an AFC foe in quite some time. Their record in that situation is now 1-7 ATS their last 8 and this is a large spread for the Pats on the road against a quality AFC opponent. The Steelers are undervalued here. Grab the home dog. 10* PITTSBURGH STEELERS |
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10-23-16 | Chargers v. Falcons -4.5 | Top | 33-30 | Loss | -113 | 7 h 48 m | Show |
Non-Conf NFL Game of the Year - Rickenbach NFL Game #470 Sunday - 10* Top Play Atlanta Falcons -4.5 vs San Diego Chargers @ 4:05 ET - The Falcons continue to be under-valued and this is a another nice spot to back them as they are hungry off of a tight loss. I rode Atlanta against last week, after having them the week before in their outright win at Denver, and the Falcons were robbed on a late non-call that should have been a penalty. Atlanta still got the cash for me but that cost ATL the outright win. Still, the good news is that means the Falcons will be extra hungry this week and they have covered 5 in a row. I have ridden Atlanta with either a star rated pick or free pick each of their last 4 games so I have been in on a good portion of this hot streak and I see no reason why it won't continue here. The Chargers are off of a huge upset win over Denver and that could leave them flat here. They've lost 8 of their last 9 games with the Falcons and they've also lost 10 fumbles already this season. San Diego has trouble closing out games and Atlanta is the #1 offense in the league. I just don't see the Chargers being able to keep up in this one as they've averaged 3 turnovers per game the last 4 weeks and the Falcons have only averaged 0.83 turnovers per game on the season! Atlanta's strength, Matt Ryan and the passing attack, goes right at the heart of the Chargers main weakness which is pass defense. The Chargers are on a 1-5 ATS run when playing away after a Thursday game and this is also a tough trip as it is an East Coast trip to a non-conference foe and the situation is made even tougher after coming off of a big divisional home win. I don't expect the Chargers to have much left in the tank to match the high emotions of a Falcons team that is still steaming mad from what happened last week. 10* ATLANTA FALCONS |
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10-22-16 | Washington State v. Arizona State OVER 63.5 | Top | 37-32 | Win | 100 | 15 h 48 m | Show |
Pac 12 Total of the Year - Rickenbach CFB Game #363/364 Saturday - 10* Top Play OVER in Arizona State Sun Devils vs Washington State Cougars @ 10 PM ET - The Sun Devils are off of a disappointing effort on the road as they scored just 16 points last week. However, this is a team that averaged 54 points per game in their first three home games this season before struggling some against a tough UCLA defense in a 23-20 win two weeks ago. Arizona State will take advantage of home field and facing a mediocre Washington State defense to put up some huge points on the board Saturday. The Cougars recent defensive numbers look better but, keep in mind, they faced the struggling offenses of Stanford and UCLA. Prior that, against Oregon and Boise State and Eastern Washington, the Cougars allowed an average of 36 points per game. While there is no questioning the fact that neither one of these teams is particularly stellar on defense, the offenses are very dynamic (Sun Devils QB Manny Wilkins now healthy). Washington State is averaging 501 yards per game on the season! The Sun Devils are averaging 459 yards per game at home. Washington State is on a 16-9 run to the over in games where they are favored in a range of 3.5 to 10 points. Arizona State, in home or neutral site games against FBS teams, with a posted total of 60 or more, is on a perfect 5-0 run to the over. The Cougars are on a 4-2 run to the over in their last 6 road games. More of the same on Saturday. 10* OVER in Arizona State |
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10-22-16 | Ole Miss +7.5 v. LSU | Top | 21-38 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
SEC Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Game #399 Saturday - 10* Top Play Ole Miss Rebels (+) @ LSU @ 9 ET - LSU is in a perfect "play against" spot here. The Tigers certainly have revenge on their minds as they lost badly at Ole Miss last year. However, LSU is simply overvalued in this spot. They have gone from being a 4 point favorite to laying more than a TD in this match-up and that is offering great value to the talented underdog in this match-up. There is a lot of chatter about how great LSU has played since they fired Les Miles after losing to Auburn. However, the Tigers have played only Missouri and Southern Miss since the dismissal of Miles. Missouri is 0-3 in SEC action and has one of the worst defenses in the SEC. Southern Miss is a CUSA team that, other than wins over an FCS school and a 1-6 UTEP team, has allowed 40 points per game in their other 5 games! Ole Miss certainly does not have a great defense but they have forced 7 turnovers in their past three games and the Rebels do have a dynamic offense. This combination has helped lead the way to a 3-2 run their last 5 games and the two losses each came by 5 points or less and one of those was to #1 ranked Alabama. The point is that the Rebels can hang with anybody and I am not convinced that LSU is "back" just because they beat up on two over-matched opponents. Ole Miss is on a 6-2 ATS run as an away dog and 5 of the last 7 meetings between these teams have been decided by 7 points or less. The Rebels are also a PERFECT 6-0 ATS when they are an underdog in a game following a SU loss. After losing to Arkansas last week, the Rebels get the job done this week. 10* OLE MISS |
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10-22-16 | Maple Leafs v. Blackhawks OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
Rickenbach NHL Game #5/6 Saturday - 10* Top Play OVER 5.5 goals in Chicago Blackhawks vs Toronto Maple Leafs @ 7:05 ET - The Blackhawks will be fired up off of a loss at Columbus last night. While I expect Chicago's offense to respond after scoring only 2 goals last night, the goaltending could be a problem here as the Hawks will likely have to start back-up Scott Darling since this is the 2nd night of a back to back. The Maple Leafs, no matter whom they start and no matter the situation, are going to have a goaltending issue. Simply put, Toronto is having trouble keeping pucks out of their own net but, the Maple Leafs offense certainly is making some noise early this season. The Leafs were held under 4 goals for the first time this season in their loss at Minnesota Thursday. However, the over is still 2-1 in their 3 road games this season and they're taking on a Blackhawks club that is 3-0 to the over in their home games this season. Chicago has scored 12 goals in their last TWO home games but the Hawks are allowing an average of 4 goals per game at home on the season. Chicago has scored 11 goals in their last two games against Toronto and the Maple Leafs are much stronger on offense this season with an infusion of young talent. That said, look for a wild one here. The Blackhawks home games have all totaled at least 7 goals and the Maple Leafs first two road games this season each totaled 9 goals. I don't see any reason that we can't get to at least 6 here. 10* OVER 5.5 in Chicago Saturday |