Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11-01-19 | Rockets v. Nets UNDER 242 | Top | 116-123 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #568 Friday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Brooklyn Nets vs Houston Rockets @ 7:05 ET - This total is up in the 242 range which I fully understand based on the over-reaction of the market place after Houston's most recent game was a 159-158 win. Of course this crazy result in the Rockets win at Washington Wednesday has led to an over-adjustment in this game. Brooklyn has played 4 games so far this season and 2 of them went to overtime. Of course that holds some significance when looking at their numbers as half their games have had extra time. When you back out the overtime periods for the Nets, Brooklyn has not had a game total more than 240 this season. Also, the average of their 4 games in regulation time is 229.5 points scored. As for the Rockets, prior to their wild game against the Wizards, they had played 3 games and 2 of the 3 totaled 228 points. Even including the other game (a high scoring one) those 3 games averaged 235 points. Again, the point being that if these teams play their "average" game we're looking at a point total that is about 10 points below the current number posted on this game. As a result, I am going under the total in this one. After a close win (by a margin of less than 4 points), the Rockets have stayed under in 10 of 14 games. Also, in a game with a posted total of 230 or more, Houston has stayed under the total in 27 of 43 games. The Nets were favored in their most recent game and yet lost by a double digit margin! The last 5 times they are off a game like that, the under has cashed in 4 of 5 times! More of the same here. 10* UNDER the total in Brooklyn |
|||||||
11-01-19 | Montreal v. Ottawa +9.5 | Top | 42-32 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #812 Friday 10* Top Play Ottawa Redblacks (+) vs Montreal Alouettes @ 7 ET - Yes the Redblacks are putting the wraps on an ugly season and mired in a long losing streak. However, Ottawa will always be motivated when facing the rival Alouettes and one could easily question Montreal's motivation here. You see the Als are locked into a home playoff game next week against Edmonton. The Alouettes main focus here is simply keeping their guys healthy physical and then, from a mental standpoint, the Eskimos match-up is already on the minds of the Als. That said I won't hesitate to grab the big home dog value with Ottawa here. The Redblacks are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 meetings with Montreal. Also, Ottawa has won 11 of the last 14 games SU. The Alouettes also have a long-term tendency NOT to blow teams out. That is they are 2-7 ATS as a favorite including 0-4 ATS this season. The Redblacks are 6-3 ATS the last 9 times they have been a home underdog. An outright upset would not be a complete shock here but I am grabbing the generous points being offered. 10* OTTAWA |
|||||||
11-01-19 | Flyers +108 v. Devils | Top | 4-3 | Win | 108 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach NHL Rotation #17 Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Flyers Money Line (+) @ New Jersey Devils @ 7:05 ET - The Flyers are angry off back to back ugly losses as they lost to the Islanders 5-3 and then the Penguins 7-1. Considering Philly now gets to take on a Devils team that has won just 2 of 10 games this season (no team has fewer than the 7 points New Jersey has), I have no hesitation in grabbing the Flyers at a value price here. Philadelphia already beat the Devils this season about 3 weeks ago at home. In their most recent trip to New Jersey the Flyers also won and the combined score of these 2 Philly victories was 10-3. Philadelphia already made some early season roster changes meant to deliver a wake-up call to everyone on this team and I expect them to respond very well on Friday night after getting thoroughly embarrassed by the Penguins on Tuesday night. The Devils have allowed 12 goals in their last 2 games and are hoping to turn things around this month. However, New Jersey actually has lost 44 of 72 games (including 5 of 6 this season) when they are off a game in which they allowed 4 or more goals. Also, the Devils have lost 19 of 29 November games the past two seasons combined. Both teams in bounce back mode here but the Flyers are the better team early this season and that shows up again on the ice on Friday evening. Play PHILADELPHIA |
|||||||
10-31-19 | 49ers v. Cardinals +10.5 | Top | 28-25 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #302 Thursday 10* Top Play Arizona Cardinals (+) vs San Francisco 49ers @ 8:20 ET - The 49ers are 7-0 SU this season but the Cardinals are 8-0 SU in their last 8 games against San Francisco. Now, of course, I am not saying the Cards are going to win this game outright but I do feel we've got great home dog value in this match-up. The Niners are over-valued after their blowout win versus Carolina last week while Arizona is under-valued after their blowout loss at New Orleans last week. As strong as the 49ers have been, they haven't run away with the division just yet. That's because the Seahawks are right behind them and, up next for the Niners, a huge game on deck versus Seattle a week from Sunday. With that said, can the 49ers maintain full focus here and win this game by double digits on a short week? I am forecasting that the answer to that question is a no. The Cardinals entered last week's action on a 3-game winning streak but they ran into a buzzsaw as they faced a red hot Saints team that also got a big boost with the return of Drew Brees at QB! The Cards will perform much better back at home this week. When Arizona is a host, and facing an opponent off a win (both SU and ATS), they have covered 15 of the last 17 times! The fact the Cardinals are getting double digits in points here after the line move (originally line was around a TD) means we've got even more value to work with in this one. 10* ARIZONA |
|||||||
10-31-19 | Flames +140 v. Predators | Top | 6-5 | Win | 140 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NHL Rotation #13 Thursday NHL 10* Top Play Calgary Flames Money Line (+) @ Nashville Predators @ 8:05 ET - The Flames blew a 3rd period lead and then lost at Carolina Tuesday. This was the 2nd straight tight loss for Calgary after having won 4 of 6 games. The difference was that the Flames felt like they let the game against the Hurricanes get away as they did not play that well and were especially outplayed in the 3rd period. That is the type of game teams respond to in their next game and, particularly coming off back to back losses, the Calgary will be bring a huge effort at Nashville tonight. They are catching the Predators at the right time for an upset. The Predators are on a winning streak and feeling a little too good about themselves at the moment. This is the type of situation when another team that is a quality club but coming off tight losses can absolutely sneak up on you for the upset win. Nashville is off a shutout in over a struggling Blackhawks team. The Predators lost 11 of 20 (-$6,200) when off a shutout in the past 2 two seasons before getting a win in that role for the first time this season against the Lightning on Saturday. In other words, off a shutout win, the Preds generally make for a good play against spot! Known for solid starts in recent seasons, the Flames are actually 24-16 (+$9,000) when playing against a team with a winning record in the first half of the season. The big road dog also has a huge edge in the penalty killing department so far this season. The Flames will prove to be the hungrier team in this match-up and will be relentless as they bounce back to avoid what would be their longest losing streak of the season. 10* CALGARY |
|||||||
10-31-19 | West Virginia v. Baylor OVER 56 | Top | 14-17 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #305 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baylor Bears vs West Virginia Mountaineers @ 8 ET - Both teams coming off bye weeks and the Bears offense has been fantastic this season. That said Baylor won't hesitate to put up plenty on the board in this one because it is also a revenge contest for them. The Bears lost 58-14 at West Virginia last season. Of course that is why the spread on this game (18.5 range) is so high and I feel the value here is with the over. The Mountaineers have struggled to run the ball this season but Baylor gave up nearly 300 rushing yards in their game at Oklahoma State prior to their bye week. That said, once West Virginia gets the ground game established in this one it will open up things through the air. Keep in mind, even though Baylor has a top 20 defense based on points allowed this season, the yardage allowed ranks them closer to a #50 defense. With that said, I love the value with the rather low total considering the Bears potent offense will do plenty of damage against a weak Mountaineers defense. Clear weather and light winds expected in Waco on this Halloween evening. The over is 4-1 when West Virginia enters a game off a road loss. Also, the over is 10-4 when the Mountaineers are off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a conference rival. Baylor's over is 5-2 off an upset win as a road underdog and they won outright at Oklahoma State prior to their bye week. Also, the Bears are a perfect 3-0 to the over as a home favorite this season. At 7.32 yards per play, Baylor is one of the top teams in the nation for offensive efficiency. The Bears and Mountaineers are set to get involved in a shootout here. 10* OVER the total in Baylor |
|||||||
10-31-19 | Heat v. Hawks +7 | Top | 106-97 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
Game of the Week (Eastern Conference) - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #562 Thursday 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks (+) vs Miami Heat @ 7:05 ET - I am well aware of the Hawks injury situation. This includes the fact that Trae Young, Atlanta's young star and last week's NBA Player of the Week, is out for this game. However, he got hurt just 2 minutes into the game at Miami on Tuesday and yet the Hawks still hung around in that game. Now, at home in Atlanta, and with extra time to figure out game planning without Young available for this game, look for the Hawks to be ultra competitive tonight. They may again fall short to the Heat but, if they do, I would expect it to be only by a bucket or two. Atlanta has a lot of youth behind Young at point guard but it helps young players when they are at home. The fact we're getting more than a half dozen points here at home has me liking the Hawks plenty in this match-up. Miami is on a 4-15 ATS run when off a home win by a double digit margin. Also, the Heat are 1-5 ATS when off a divisional win by a double digit margin. Atlanta has 4 days off after this game so they're going to want to make the most of this opportunity. In other words, there is no holding back and the Hawks will leave it all on the floor in terms of their effort tonight. Keep in mind, prior to the road loss Tuesday, Atlanta was 2-1 this season and the only loss had come by two points! Again, I know the Hawks are without Young here but they are being undervalued in this spot based on the Tuesday results at Miami. Look for the home dog to improve to 26-18 when off a blowout loss by a margin of 15 or more points. Payback time. 10* ATLANTA |
|||||||
10-30-19 | Oilers v. Blue Jackets OVER 6 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach NHL Rotation #3 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Columbus Blue Jackets vs Edmonton Oilers @ 7:35 ET - The over is a perfect 3-0 in the Blue Jackets last 3 games and they have allowed 3.5 goals per game on the season. Columbus has scored 4 goals in each of its last 3 games but has struggled quite often to keep the puck out of their own net this season. That struggle will come to the forefront on Wednesday as the Blue Jackets host an angry Edmonton club. The Oilers underestimated a Red Wings team on an 8-game losing streak and, as a result, Edmonton lost at Detroit 3-1 last night. This followed an uninspired performance on Sunday afternoon when the Oilers got drilled 6-2 by Florida. In other words, Edmonton enters this game off back to back losses and unacceptable performances. This is the type of game when the "big guns" step up and the fact is that Edmonton is known for it's top line scoring but having trouble getting much from secondary options. In this particular case that means everyone is going hard in this game and I fully expect big games from McDavid, Draisaitl, and Neal. The issue for the Oilers is they have allowed at least 3 goals in 6 of their past 8 games. I fully expect this game to get to see each team get to 3 goals and that means the game can't end with anything less than a 4-3 final and that would put this over into the win column. When off a loss in which they were held to 1 goal or less and facing an Eastern Conference foe, the Oilers are 2-0 to the over this season and those games totaled an average of 8 goals. A similar result expected here. Both teams have displayed some struggles in their own zone recently and are allowing too many scoring chances. That continues here and they are a lot of big scorers from both clubs that will take advantage in this match-up. Edmonton has scored an average of 4.5 goals per game in its last 4 games against Columbus. That said, I also look for the Blue Jackets (angry off the embarrassing loss to the Flyers) to respond and answer the Oilers goal for goal in this one. The end result? A very high-scoring game. 10* OVER the total in Columbus |
|||||||
10-30-19 | Wolves v. 76ers -6.5 | Top | 95-117 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #542 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76'ers (-) vs Minnesota Timberwolves @ 7:05 ET - The 76'ers opened their season a week okay versus Boston at home. Philly has since been on the road for a pair of games and after this game the Sixers will not be home again until November 10th. That means, because of an upcoming 4 game road trip out west, the 76'ers only home game between October 23rd and November 10th is tonight on Wednesday. You can bet (literally!) that they're going to make the most of it. I have had my eyes on this situation for awhile and everything set up perfectly and that is why I am going with a big play here. The Timberwolves remain undefeated on the season courtesy of a huge comeback win against the Heat on Sunday. The Wolves were actually down 7 points heading to the 4th quarter of that game and yet miraculously won the game by 7 points. It was a miracle cover for those whom had Minnesota -6.5 as the game was tied with just a couple minutes to go and the Timberwolves trailed for plenty of the 3rd and 4th quarters. In any event it sets this one up nicely because Minnesota is over-valued right now. They are 3-0 on the season but their road wins came at Brooklyn and Charlotte. The Nets and Hornets are a combined 2-5 on the young season. The fact is that Minnesota came into this season projected to win about 35 games while Philly came into this season projected to win about 55 games. The Sixers won their only other home game of the season by 14 against the Celtics and they can win this game by double digits too. The point is that, given the above, this line should be in the double digit range but it is well short of that and I am all over the value here in going against a Wolves team whose luck runs out tonight. The Sixers know how to dial up the defense, particularly when at home, and Minnesota won't find the openings they did late in their win over Miami on Sunday. That one burned us as we have the Heat +7 in that game and had no business being handed a tough push. Today we get payback as the Sixers make the most of their lone home game in about a 3-week stretch. They are going to give a tremendous effort at home tonight. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
|||||||
10-29-19 | Nationals v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
Run Line Rout - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #912 Tuesday 10* Top Play Houston Astros Run Line -1.5 runs +125 vs Washington Nationals @ 8:07 ET - In the many years of World Series history there have, of course, been some great stories. I look for this one to be added to that list after Game 6 goes in the books as an Astros victory. It would involve Houston roaring back to win 4 straight after dropping each of the first two games on their home field. It would involve Justin Verlander finally winning an MLB decision in the World Series after beginning his career 0-5 in World Series decisions. It would also involve the home team finally getting a win after the road team won each of the first five games. The reason I am playing the run line here is partially because I simply don't like laying -175 prices on the money line. As long-time followers know, I am very careful when it comes to money management and risk. That said, I like the fact we can get as much as +125 (as of early game day morning) by laying the -1.5 runs with Houston. Another reason I like the run line here is each of the past 4 games have been decided by big multi-run margins. The Astros have been swinging the bats well in recent games while the Nationals have been struggling badly at the plate. The momentum has completely shifted in this series and now the Astros and Verlander finish off the Nationals and Stephen Strasburg. The Astros are 24-5 this season when playing after a day off. Washington is 11-15 this season as an underdog of +125 to +175. Verlander has had fantastic numbers since coming to the Astros from the Tigers. Incredible results in a Houston uniform and, I look for him to win this rematch with Strasburg as Verlander also has been solid overall in his home appearances in this post-season. Momentum and the hotter sticks lead to a big home win in this one. 10* HOUSTON -1.5 runs |
|||||||
10-29-19 | Hawks v. Heat OVER 223 | Top | 97-112 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #533 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks @ 7:35 ET - The Hawks game had 128 points at halftime last night and yet still went under the total. That's because Atlanta allowed the game to slow down in the second half and the 76ers took it to them and got the win. The Hawks won't make the same mistake here at Miami and that means we should see plenty of run and gun in this one. Speaking of mistakes, the Heat led by 7 going to the 4th quarter at Minnesota Sunday and then allowed the Wolves to outscore them by 14 points in the final stanza and Miami lost by 7. The Heat won't make the same mistake here as they know they need to keep their foot on the gas when they get a lead like that. As a result of the types of games both these teams are off of as well as the fact this total has dropped about a bucket to 223 as of early game day morning, I am going with the over in this match-up. Look for the over to improve to a perfect 4-0 on the season in Heat games. As for the Hawks, the over was a perfect 2-0 in their two visits to Miami last season. Also, the over is 16-7 when the Heat are installed as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. The line is in that range for this one and I look for both teams to favor a fast tempo in this game per the above reasoning. 10* OVER the total in Miami |
|||||||
10-29-19 | Flyers +140 v. Penguins | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach NHL Rotation #69 Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Flyers Money Line (+) @ Pittsburgh Penguins @ 7:05 ET - The road team has won 8 of the last 9 meetings between these divisional in-state rivals. Included in that run is the fact that Philadelphia has won each of its last four visits to Pittsburgh! The Penguins come into this game off a win but they had previously lost 3 straight games. Also, the Pens just returned from a 3-game road trip and often the first game back home is the toughest. While Pittsburgh is off a win, Philly is off an ugly loss to a red hot Islanders team. Though the Flyers Carter Hart again struggled in goal in that game, it is likely that the surging Brian Elliott gets the start in this one and he has been fantastic between the pipes for Philadelphia. Also, in regulation time this season, the Penguins have been held to 2 or less goals in 5 of their 7 home games! Overall, the Pens enter this game having averaged just 1.7 goals per game in their last 4 games. As for the Flyers last 4 games, they have won 3 of them and Philadelphia has averaged scoring 5 goals per game in those 4 contests. The Flyers production on offense has been the much more impressive of these two hockey clubs. Considering that as well as the road dominance in this series and there is no way I am passing up on a +140 price being offered to the Flyers here. I know the Penguins are getting a little healthier but they still have a ways to go and it takes guys awhile to get back to 100% even when they do get back on the ice in game situations and they have to get back to being a cohesive unit with the other guys on their line, etc. Look for Philly to make it 5 in a row at Pittsburgh with another solid road victory. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
|||||||
10-28-19 | Dolphins v. Steelers -14 | Top | 14-27 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #278 Monday 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Steelers (-) vs Miami Dolphins @ 8:15 ET - I know it may seem tough lay big points with a 2-4 Steelers team. However, keep in mind we're fading an 0-6 Dolphins team and Pittsburgh is at home and coming off a bye week. Also, Miami had scored an average of just 8.4 points per game in their first 5 games this season! Certainly the Dolphins showed a little more on offense last week but that came against a Bills team that promptly got blasted by the struggling Eagles yesterday. In other words, perhaps one shouldn't put too much weight into Miami's performance at Buffalo last week. Also, the Steelers are on a 4-0 ATS run. They've gone 2-1 SU in their last 3 games and the lone loss was in overtime. In regulation time Pittsburgh has allowed 14.3 points per game their past 3 games. Not only is the defense playing well but the offense gets QB Mason Rudolph back for this one. The most comparable game to this one is when the Steelers hosted Cincinnati on a Monday night. The Bengals were (and still are) win-less. Pittsburgh rolled Cincy by a margin of 24 points and that is what I am expecting here as well. The fact the line moved down from a 17 to a 14 means we've got even more line value here. I am going with my highest rating of a 10* Top Play as a result. Lay it as the Steelers make it 5 straight covers! 10* PITTSBURGH |
|||||||
10-28-19 | Bulls v. Knicks OVER 223 | Top | 98-105 | Loss | -101 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #513 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Knicks vs Chicago Bulls @ 7:05 ET - Both these teams are off embarrassing low-scoring performances in their home openers. Each team faced a tough foe though and now, after that ugliness, each team is ready for a breakout game offensively and will take advantage of facing a weak foe that struggles on the defensive end. That is going to lead to an absolutely shootout here in New York in my opinion. Keep in mind, the Bulls are 18-7 to the over when off a game in which they scored 90 or less points. The Knicks are off back to back losses to divisional foes and I look for the over to improve to 3-0 when in this situation (off B2B losses to Atlantic teams). Note that New York's only game against a non-divisional foe this season totaled 231 points and flew over the total. The Knicks are allowing an average of 117 points per game this season. As for Chicago, they are allowing an average of 112 points per game this season. Prior to getting stifled by Toronto, the Bulls did average 117.5 points per game in their first two games. The Chicago offensive production bounces right back here but the Knicks answer them bucket for bucket in a game that goes down to the wire as both teams respond well after each having had a very poor shooting performance in their prior game. 10* OVER the total in New York |
|||||||
10-27-19 | Packers v. Chiefs +5.5 | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #276 Sunday 10* Top Play Kansas City Chiefs (+) vs Green Bay Packers @ 8:20 ET - The Chiefs have no chance here without Pat Mahomes, right? Actually I feel better about Kansas City than most do heading into this situation. Keep in mind, this is still a quality team on both sides of the ball and it is not as if they are now turning to a rookie QB with zero NFL experience. The fact is that Matt Moore is a 35 year old veteran with plenty of NFL experience and he had to play many years on mediocre Dolphins teams. Now he is surrounded by teammates that are part of a legit Super Bowl contender. Having had a full week and a half to prepare for this game (after being thrown into the fire Thursday night at Denver), Moore will be ready here. The Packers laying nearly a full TD on the road in this one is simply too much. Keep in mind, Green Bay has had the luxury of a very favorable schedule as this is just their 2nd game away from Wisconsin in the past 7 weeks! Also, this will be just their 3rd game this season against a team that currently has a winning record. In the other two games (against Dallas and Minnesota) the Packers did get the win in each game but the stats tell the full story! Green Bay was outgained in both games and, in fact, was outgained by more than a total of 300 yards by the Cowboys and Vikings. Now the Packers take on a strong Chiefs team on the road and are laying nearly a TD...I don't think so! Green Bay struggles to run the ball on offense and their defense is suspect against both the run and the pass. The Chiefs strength on defense is against the pass and I also look for the KC defense to really ramp things up at home as they are fired up about hosting Aaron Rodgers and his high-flying Packers in this one. The Chiefs D will be ready and, on the other side of the ball, Moore will utilize his weapons very well and the KC offense will take advantage of Packers weak defense! 10* KANSAS CITY |
|||||||
10-27-19 | Heat +7 v. Wolves | Top | 109-116 | Push | 0 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #505 Sunday 10* Top Play Miami Heat (+) @ Minnesota Timberwlves @ 7:05 ET - I am very well aware of the old "rule" about never playing a team off an OT win in a back to back spot but there is simply too much value to ignore in this one. I also like the fact that it is early in the season and also yesterday's game was an early game for Miami and then it was a short flight from Milwaukee to Minneapolis. That being said, we're getting some extra value (+7) here because of the situation and I feel the Timberwolves are being given far too much respect. Keep in mind that this is a team that came into the season projected to win about 35 games while the Heat came into this season projected to win about 45 games. What I like about Miami here is their resiliency. They were down big on the road against the Bucks, an NBA title contender, and then came roaring all the way back for the eventual overtime win. That is a confidence booster to say the least. It also means that even if the Heat get down to the Wolves in this one by a sizable margin, which not be a total surprise given this is Minnesota's home opener, one can fully expect the high-powered Heat to battle back and get right back into the game. Miami has been putting up a ton of points early this season and that makes them a dangerous dog in a spot like this. This one is all about the situational value and, even though the Wolves are 2-0, they played one very bad team and won their other game in OT by a single point. Lets not get carried away with Minnesota's 2-0 start. So another way to look at this is we have a Heat team projected to be a 45-win team this season getting a full +7 against a Minnesota team projected to be a 35-win team this season. I understand the situational edge for the home team here but this line could easily be much closer to a pick'em! Give me the big points! 10* MIAMI |
|||||||
10-27-19 | Flyers v. Islanders OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NHL Rotation #57 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Islanders vs Philadelphia Flyers @ 7:05 ET - The over is 7-1 in the 8 meetings between these teams the past two seasons. Yes I know this is a divisional game and both teams want to limit their opponents chances and play a tight, defensive minded game. However, the fact is that the road teams scored 4 or more goals in each match-up last season. Don't be surprised if the red hot Flyers have another big game here finding the back of the net often. However, they could struggle again to prevent goals. Yesterday they allowed 4 goals with Brian Elliott between the pipes and now Carter Hart gets the start tonight. Certainly I like his game overall but Hart has struggled in each of his last two appearances as he has given up 7 goals on just 29 shots. That said, he now will be playing after a full week off and could show a little rust too. Look for the Islanders to cash in early and often as a result as the over improves to 8-1 in the last 9 meetings between these teams. 10* OVER the total in New York Islanders |
|||||||
10-27-19 | Raiders v. Texans OVER 51.5 | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #267 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Texans vs Oakland Raiders @ 4:25 ET - It is difficult to envision many defensive stops in this one. The Raiders have allowed an average of 30 points per game in their past 5 games. Though their defense has struggled, Oakland's offense has produced 24 points or more in 3 straight games. As for Houston, they have allowed 24 points or more in 3 straight games! The Texans offense has averaged 36 points per game in their past 3 games. The over is 4-0 in Oakland's last 4 games and 3-0 in Houston's last 3 games. Both these teams have respectable offensive production but each team ranks near the bottom of the league for pass defense. Of course in today's pass-happy NFL that is the perfect recipe for a high-scoring game. Look for the over to improve to 5-0 on the season in Raiders games played away from Oakland (this includes their "home game" in London flying over the total). At the same time the over improves to a perfect 4-0 in Texans games with posted total of 49.5 points or more. This one is in the low 50s and it is justified to be posted at that level. I expect this one to get close to 60 points as both defenses struggle to get off the field all game long. 10* OVER the total in Houston |
|||||||
10-26-19 | Astros v. Nationals OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
Playoff Total of the Year - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #907 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs Houston Astros @ 8:07 ET - IMPORTANT: I do NOT care whom the starting pitchers are in this match-up. In other words, if there ends up being a pitching change from the scheduled starters of Jose Urquidy and Patrick Corbin, my recommendation is to re-bet your wager! This play has much more to do with the lineups and the bullpens than anything else which is why the starting pitchers are not so important. First off each of the first two games in this series went over the total and, even though Game 3 did not, Friday's game most certainly should have gone over the total as well. The Nationals went 0 for 10 with runners in scoring position and EACH team left double digits in men on base! The Nats left a dozen on base and the Astros left 10 men on base last night. Both bullpens have had their share of shakiness in this series. As for the scheduled starters here, Urquidy is unlikely to work deep and could struggle as he is making his first start since late September. In other words, Urquidy has not been in the starters role in over 4 weeks. As for Corbin, he has struggled in the post-season as he has a 6.91 ERA and has been used as both a starter and a reliever in these playoffs. The point is that the situation is not stable with either one of these starters and both bullpens had a lot of work last night and both lineups are likely to cash in more opportunities this evening than they did in Game 3. Plenty of runs in Game 4 Saturday with favorable weather also expected in DC for this one. The over is 6-1 in the Nationals last 7 games against AL opponents. The over is 5-2 in Houston's last 7 games against NL East opponents. 10* OVER the total in Washington |
|||||||
10-26-19 | Notre Dame v. Michigan +1 | Top | 14-45 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #208 Saturday 10* Top Play Michigan Wolverines (+) vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ 7:30 ET - Once again I am making a top side play that is contrarian to public opinion. This line was around a -2.5 on Michigan and now the Wolverines are the underdog in this match-up. Once again the public thinks there has been some kind of mistake here as, after all, Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh so often loses the bigger games. Long-time followers know how I feel about supposed "mistakes" by the odds-makers. There is a REASON why the odds makers made the lower-ranked team the favorite. Yes Notre Dame is in the top ten while the Wolverines are barely hanging on in the top 25 but I like a couple key factors here. One is that this game is at Michigan and the host is 8-1 (both SU and ATS) in the last 9 meetings between these teams. Another key I like here is that the Wolverines have played the tougher schedule. Michigan got embarrassed at Wisconsin earlier this season but they've been a different team ever since and actually outgained the Nittany Lions by over 130 yards last week and had a huge 26-14 edge in first downs. The Wolverines didn't get what they deserved on the scoreboard at Penn State but they'll make up for that here at home. The only truly tough match-up for Notre Dame this season has been facing Georgia. The Irish lost that game. I know the Fighting Irish have the better offense in this match-up but the Wolverines have the better defense and the home field edge and Michigan is ready to make the most of what is their one and only home game out of a 6-week stretch from early Oct to mid-Nov. The Wolverines lost at Notre Dame by a TD in the season opener last year. That is noteworthy here as Michigan is 5-0 ATS the last 5 times they have been at home and playing with revenge against an opponent with a winning percentage of .899 or less. The Wolverines already rode their defense to a big home revenging win earlier this season when they held Iowa to just 3 points in avenging a loss in their prior meeting with the Hawkeyes. Look for payback here and take advantage of additional line value offered by the line move in this one. Notre Dame has had a very home-friendly schedule this season and now drops to 1-2 SU on the season away from home with losses to the Bulldogs and the Wolverines! 10* MICHIGAN |
|||||||
10-26-19 | Celtics v. Knicks OVER 213 | Top | 118-95 | Push | 0 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #555 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Knicks vs Boston Celtics @ 7:35 ET - Both teams are already playing their 3rd game of the young season and it is a back to back for both clubs as each was in action last night. That said, I don't expect much defensive intensity for either team here as the Celtics are off huge divisional match-ups with the 76ers and Raptors. As for the Knicks, they failed to score in the final 3:41 of their loss to Brooklyn last night. With that type of late game failure on the offensive end, you know where New York's focus is heading into this game. Also, both teams have injuries to big men. This means each team is lacking some interior defense and, as a result, there will be more scoring opportunities in the paint that what you would typically see. With this total also dropping from as high as a 215.5 to a 212, the value is clearly with the over in this one. The over is 11-6 when Boston is off a home win against a divisional rival. The most recent game between these teams stayed under the total but, prior to that, Knicks games against Celtics were on a 3-1 run to the over. That type of trending resumes here. 10* OVER the total in New York |
|||||||
10-26-19 | Saskatchewan v. Edmonton UNDER 47 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #696 Saturday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Edmonton Eskimos vs Saskatchewan Roughriders @ 7 ET - Temperatures below freezing with northerly winds blowing at nearly 20 mph sets up this divisional battle for a low-scoring grudge match. The Roughriders still have their sights set on winning the division and even though the Eskimos clinched a post-season berth they certainly won't be laying down against their division rivals. This is particularly true at home and also coming in rest off a bye week. This is the front end of a home and home set to close out the regular season as the Eskimos will be at Saskatchewan next week. With Edmonton at home this week and rested off a bye week but having seen some struggles on offense due to inconsistent QB play, this game will be all about defense! The Riders have allowed an average of only 17.8 points per game in their last 4 games. The Eskimos have allowed 16 points or less in 2 of their past 3 games. More of the same here. 10* UNDER the total in Edmonton |
|||||||
10-26-19 | Hawaii v. New Mexico OVER 70.5 | Top | 45-31 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #147 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New Mexico Lobos vs Hawaii Rainbow Warriors @ 4 ET - Ideal weather conditions expected in Albuquerque, NM this afternoon with mild temperatures, clear skies, and light winds. That said, there will be no limitations on either offense here and plenty of points expected in this one. The Lobos have had trouble defending the pass and the Warriors love to attack through the air. Hawaii has had trouble defending the run and New Mexico has a strong ground attack. This is why, even though this total is a big one, it will prove to not be big enough. The Warriors lost 56-26 at home last week as Air Force ran for over 350 yards against them. This was preceded by Hawaii giving up over 200 yards on the ground against Boise a couple weeks ago. New Mexico is off a low-scoring loss last week but playing at Wyoming is why the Lobos were involved in a rare defensive struggle. The Lobos are allowing over 350 passing yards per game this season and that ranks them dead last in the nation. New Mexico's 3 home games this season have averaged 78 points per game and this one should get well past the 70 mark. When on a SU losing streak of 2 or more games, Hawaii is 36-18 to the over. When off a home loss to a conference rival, the Warriors are 24-9 to the over. When the Lobos enter a match-up after having lost 4 out of their last 5 games, the over is 3-1. The Warriors have allowed 57.5 points per game the past two weeks. Hawaii has scored an average of 45.5 points per game in their past two road contests. The Lobos get their offense back on track at home but the Warriors pile up points too. 10* OVER the total in New Mexico |
|||||||
10-25-19 | USC v. Colorado OVER 63.5 | Top | 35-31 | Win | 100 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #105 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Buffaloes vs USC Trojans @ 9 ET - Beautiful weather expected in Boulder on Friday evening and that means both teams will be able to fully execute their game plans on offense. That is bad news for two defenses that are both struggling (Colorado) and hobbled (USC). I also look for the Buffaloes offense to play much better at home after struggling badly in tough conditions at Washington State last week. Colorado had scored very well this season prior to running into tough road games against the Cougars and at Oregon the prior week. The Buffaloes had averaged 34.6 points per game in their first 5 games this season. As for the Trojans, they had one bad game offensively (at Washington) that is dragging their numbers down a bit on offense. Take that "outlier" game out of the equation and Southern Cal scored 27 or more in each of their other 6 games this season. USC averaged 33.5 points per game in those 6 games. Also, prior to allowing just 14 points last week (and by the way Trojans D could be peeking ahead to HUGE game versus Oregon on deck), the SoCal D had allowed an average of 25.7 points per game this season. Long-term the over is 16-9 in USC games as a road favorite of 7.5 to 14 points. The over is 9-4 when the Buffaloes enter a game off consecutive road losses. Based on yardage allowed this season USC ranks 92nd defensively while the Buffs rank 123rd. Don't look for many stops here! 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
|||||||
10-25-19 | Calgary v. Winnipeg OVER 47.5 | Top | 28-29 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #689 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Winnipeg Blue Bombers vs Calgary Stampeders @ 8:30 ET - The Blue Bombers become the first team to wrap up their regular season as their Friday game is their final one since they have a bye next week. Last week Winnipeg lost 37 to 33 at Calgary. The Blue Bombers passing attack was not good though even though that point total would lead you to believe otherwise. That said, back home and with pleasant weather expected in Winnipeg for this one, the Blue Bombers offense gets back on track. However, the reason the Bombers limped down the stretch run is a struggling defense as they have allowed 30.6 points per game in going 1-4 SU their past 5 games. Calgary has allowed 27.3 points per game their past 3 games and we've got a low total to work with here. The Stampeders rarely run the ball and I also look for the Blue Bombers to throw more here as this is their last chance to get their aerial attack back on track before the post-season begins. The over is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings between these teams in Winnipeg. Also, the over is 11-4 in Blue Bombers games where their line is in a +3 to -3 range. Look for the over to improve to a perfect 4-0 the last 4 times Calgary was in a road game where the posted total was in a range between 45.5 and 49 points. 10* OVER the total in Winnipeg |
|||||||
10-25-19 | Astros -135 v. Nationals | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
Playoff Game of the Year - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #905 Friday 10* Top Play Houston Astros Money Line (-) @ Washington Nationals @ 8:05 ET - The Astros Zack Greinke has allowed just 1 earned run on only 15 hits while striking out 26 over the 28 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 4 starts against the Nationals. That equates to a minuscule 0.32 ERA for Greinke against Washington. The Nationals are starting Anibal Sanchez here. He has had some surprising success in this post-season but certainly Sanchez, overall, is not on the level that Greinke has been throughout the majority of his career. Couple that with the fact that the Astros are down 2-0 in this series after having lost both games at home and you are going to see a very focused effort from Houston in this one. The fact it is in an NL park actually favors Houston as Greinke actually swings the bat very well. Overall, the Astros will have the stronger lineup here 1 through 9 than the Nationals will. I also like the fact that Houston has gone 23-5 this season when playing after a day off while Washington actually has a losing record on the season in that situation. I am laying the very fair price here (given the situation) and fully anticipating a road rout as the Astros improve to 45-23 on the season when they are a road favorite of -125 or more. 10* HOUSTON |
|||||||
10-25-19 | Raptors v. Celtics -3 | Top | 106-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #534 Friday 10* Top Play Boston Celtics (-) vs Toronto Raptors @ 7:05 ET - The Celtics ran into a buzzsaw in the form of a determined and hungry 76ers team in Philly on Wednesday. The Sixers had long been the punching bag of Boston and wanted to prove they are ready to live up to their lofty expectations this season. Now the Celtics get a much better match-up in Game 2 of their season and in what is Boston's home opener. The Raptors are coming to down. Of course Toronto's expectations are down quite far this season as Kawhi Leonard is now wearing a Clippers jersey! Also, the Raptors handed me an early candidate for "bad beat of the year" with their OT win (and inexplicable cover!) in their overtime 8 point win over the Pelicans on opening night on Tuesday. That said, I already had my eyes on this match-up ever since that game and things set up perfectly after the Celtics were throttled in Philadelphia on Wednesday. Boston was held in check thanks to stifling defense of the 76ers and now the Celtics will enjoy a lot more open court and open looks in this match-up against the Raptors. After shooting poorly from the field (including from beyond the arc) and also shooting poorly at the foul line, the Celtics will turn in a much stronger performance on their home floor on Friday evening. Look for the host to win this one in an absolute rout. 10* BOSTON |
|||||||
10-25-19 | Avalanche +145 v. Golden Knights | Top | 6-1 | Win | 145 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NHL Rotation #21 Friday 10* Top Play Colorado Avalanche Money Line (+) @ Vegas Golden Knights @ 6:05 ET - The value is incredible here and that is why I have no qualms about going contrarian and releasing a top play in this spot. The markets are funny sometimes as this line opened up at a -135 with the odds makers fully aware of the fact Mikko Rantanen got hurt in the Avs game Tuesday and that he would miss this game. However, the betting markets still have pounced all over the Golden Knights here and driven this line up all the way to a -165 as of very early game day morning. It is Nevada Day today here in Vegas where I reside and that is why we have a special start time here with this one as it starts at 3 PT locally. The fact is that the Golden Knights were fortunate to rally for the tie and notch a shootout win at Chicago earlier this week. Keep in mind this was preceded by Vegas getting blasted in Philadelphia by the Flyers. In their most recent home game it was also a victory that came after regulation and that was against Ottawa. The Senators are considered by many to be the worst team in the NHL. So the point is that the Golden Knights have not been that impressive of late and yet their laying a very sizable price here against an Avalanche team that just suffered its very first regulation loss of the entire season! I'll gladly grab the big dog value here with a Colorado team that is one of the best in the NHL even without Rantanen on the ice. The Avalanche are particularly hungry coming off a loss and they've had to wait a few days to erase the taste of defeat. They'll be flying all over the ice in this one as a result! 10* COLORADO |
|||||||
10-24-19 | Flyers -106 v. Blackhawks | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NHL Rotation #15 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Flyers Money Line (-) @ Chicago Blackhawks @ 8:35 ET - Many will be backing the Blackhawks here as it is their lone shot at revenge against the Flyers this season after Chicago lost to Philadelphia in Prague, Czech Republic earlier this month. However, in typical contrarian fashion, I am backing Philly in this one. The Flyers have been playing better than their record shows. They finally got what they deserved with a dominating win over Vegas in their most recent game. It was what they deserved because Philadelphia had outshot their prior two opponents 91 to 38 but come up short on the scoreboard in both games. The fact is the Flyers are playing better than their record would indicate early this season. Also, Philadelphia is getting strong goaltending from Brian Elliott and he'll be back between the pipes tonight. That is a luxury for the Flyers to have a strong veteran presence in addition to the young phenom Carter Hart. That said, it comes as no surprise that head coach Alain Vigneault is riding the hot hand here! As for the Blackhawks, goalie Corey Crawford is struggling this season as he is 1-3 with a 3.58 GAA. If Chicago chooses to start Robin Lehner, he has a 3.01 GAA in his 10 career starts against the Flyers. In fact he and Crawford have a combined record of 6-13 versus Philadelphia! Additionally Connor Murphy had been moved to the top defensive pairing for Chicago as he was next to Duncan Keith. However, Murphy now got hurt and the Blackhawks had to recall a defenseman from the AHL. Chicago is off a disheartening loss to Vegas Tuesday as they gave up a late tying goal and then lost in the shootout. The Blackhawks slump continues here as I am forecasting them to lose for the 6th time in 8 games this season while the Flyers continue dominating in shots on goal differential (+9 per game is #2 in NHL!) and get the win here. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
|||||||
10-24-19 | Redskins v. Vikings OVER 42 | Top | 9-19 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #101 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Vikings vs Washington Redskins @ 8:20 ET - After getting shutout last week in rainy weather on their home field in DC, Washington will put up some points at Minnesota this week. Of course this is a short rest situation for both teams and the Vikings defense allowed 30 points at Detroit last week. Minnesota also comes into this game having averaged 36 points per game the last 3 weeks as Kirk Cousins, former Redskin, is back in the zone. Case Keenum, former Viking, will be under center for Washington here. Look for these guys to try and outduel each other and this is a low total even though Minnesota, last week notwithstanding, does have a strong defense. The Vikings pass defense this season only ranks them in the middle of the pack this year while the Redskins overall defense ranks them in the bottom third of the NFL. The over is 9-4 in Redskins Thursday games. Also, Washington is 6-2 to the over when they are off a game in which they allowed 14 or less points. Look for the Vikings over to improve to 3-0 their last 3 games as the Redskins enter this game having gone 3-0 to the their over their last 3 against NFC North opponents. The over is 21-11 when Minnesota enters a game having scored 25 points or more in 3 straight games. In other words, don't look for the Vikings to slow down here. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
|||||||
10-24-19 | SMU v. Houston +14.5 | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #104 Thursday 10* Top Play Houston Cougars (+) vs SMU Mustangs @ 7:30 ET - With SMU off a blowout win over Temple and Houston off an unimpressive win against a bad UConn team, the markets are shaded heavily toward the Mustangs here. In typical contrarian fashion I am on the Cougars here! Give me the big points with the home dog as Houston is known for playing much better at home and also they get their QB back this week after he missed last week's game and the Cougars were down to #3 on the depth chart with Logan Holgorsen. Houston will have Clayton Tune back this week and I look for him to atone for his 3 INT performance in his most recent game as that was against a tough Cincinnati defense. Note that SMU has allowed an average of 30 points per game in their 3 road games this season! Also, the Mustangs are overvalued here because they have been a covering machine this season. The Cougars have done well in the big dog role and I fully expect that to continue here as you know Houston will be "up" for this game against an in-state conference foe that is undefeated on the season and also ranked in the top 25. This is a big game for the Cougars that they are relishing to have at home and with the ESPN cameras rolling! Houston is a perfect 4-0 ATS when off a SU road win in conference action. As a dog of +1.5 or more, the Cougars are 15-3-1 their last 19 games. More of the same expected here! SMU is 0-4 ATS when off a win by a double digit margin over a conference rival. Not only are the Mustangs off the big win over the Owls last week, they also have a huge game with Memphis on deck. 10* HOUSTON |
|||||||
10-24-19 | Hawks +1 v. Pistons | Top | 117-100 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #527 Thursday 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks (+) @ Detroit Pistsons @ 7:05 ET - Give credit to the Pistons as they went on the road, sans Blake Griffin, and beat a solid Indiana team last night. However, a look inside the numbers shows why some struggles are to be expected tonight. An early season back to back is tough as teams aren't use to that yet this early in the season. Also, Detroit knocked down 46% of their 3-pointers and also 56% from inside the arc. That hot shooting is unlikely to be repeated against a hungry Hawks team that will be flying all over the floor looking to win their season opener. Also, with Griffin out, Andre Drummond is the most important player on the floor for the Pistons and he played 41 minutes last night. That is going to be tough on the big man for tonight as, no matter how well-conditioned you are, a back to back is particularly tough on a big man. Drummond was key to the win last night and his minutes could be limited tonight. Grab the fresher team as the trend we saw toward road covers in yesterday's first big card of NBA action continues in this one Thursday as the home teams are a little over-valued early in the season when a lot of these games are "anybody's game" and, given the rest edge for the Hawks here, I look for the road team to pull away late. 10* ATLANTA |
|||||||
10-23-19 | Nationals v. Astros UNDER 7.5 | Top | 12-3 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #904 Wednesday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Houston Astros vs Washington Nationals @ 8:07 ET - Both teams swung the bats surprisingly well last night but both these pitchers tonight are fully capable of being in "shutdown mode" this evening. The Nationals Stephen Strasburg not only has a 1.64 ERA with 33 strikeouts and only 1 walk in these playoffs, he also has a minuscule 1.10 ERA in his post-season career! As for Justin Verlander, the Astros right-hander is 42-15 with a 2.45 ERA in his 73 regular season starts since coming to Houston from Detroit. In the post-season he has held hitters to averages of .177, .175, and .205 respectively in 2017, 2018, 2019. In these playoffs he has struggled on the road but he dominated both of his home starts. More of the same expected here and we witness the pitchers duel in Game 2 that had been expected by many in Game 1. These #2 starters for each team easily would be #1 starters on most any other teams in baseball than the ones they are pitching for now. Take advantage as, instead of yesterday's 6.5 runs, we're now working with a total of 7.5 runs in this one. 10* UNDER the total in Houston |
|||||||
10-23-19 | Celtics v. 76ers -5 | Top | 93-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #512 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Boston Celtics @ 7:35 ET - The betting markets tend to put a lot of weight into historical data. That is why this line is only a -5 on Philadelphia as of early game day morning. That said, the line is far too low and I will step in and take advantage. The fact is that the 76ers have a history of recent struggles against the Celtics and that is why Boston is getting plenty of attention in this match-up. However, the fact is that the Celtics are trending the wrong direction away from NBA Championship contender while the 76ers (along with the Bucks) are now considered a frontrunner to come out of the Eastern Conference and battle for the NBA Title in June. In other words, we've got the stronger team and we've got the team that wants to exterminate a long-time nemesis and we've got them on their home floor and they're laying just 5 points. I'll take this kind of situation all day every day. In terms of additional support for this one, Boston is just 9-15 SU as a road dog of 6 points or less while Philly is 65-19 SU as a home favorite including 29-10 SU as a home favorite of 6 or less points. In other words, it is very likely that Philly gets the SU win here and having the Sixers in the -5 range is a great value. The 76ers are on an 8-3 ATS run and continue to be undervalued by the markets while the Celtics are on a 1-4 ATS run entering the new season and are overvalued here due to past successes against the Sixers. Philly is in the process of turning the tables on Boston and "the process" continues here. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
|||||||
10-23-19 | Red Wings v. Senators -122 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach NHL Rotation #62 Wednesday 10* Top Play Ottawa Senators Money Line (-) vs Detroit Red Wings @ 7:35 ET - Tough spot for the Red Wings as they are in a back to back situation. Making matters worse is how they lost last night's game on home ice. Detroit entered the 3rd period up 2-0. The final score of the game was 5-2 and the Red Wings were on the wrong end of that as they gave up 5 goals to the Canucks in the 3rd period. Those are the type of defeats that are very tough to bounce back from and this is particularly true when you're facing a rested team that is also desperate for a win. The Senators on home ice will be ready to go here and they have the fresher legs. Also, Detroit could be a little short-handed in this one as they lost Danny Dekeyser to injury in last night's game versus Vancouver. Since this is a back to back, it is expected that Jonathan Bernier will get the start in between the pipes for the Red Wings. He has made 4 starts this season and continues a pattern of alternating good starts with bad starts. For what its worth he is off a good start so you know what is likely here. Keep in mind he lost 23 of his 32 decisions last season and compiled a 3.16 GAA. This season Bernier has a 3.02 GAA and he'll likely be opposed by Senators red hot goalie Anders Nilsson whom has stopped 93 of 97 shots he has faced in his last two starts. Detroit has lost 47 of 66 when off a game in which they allowed 4 or more goals. The Red Wings also have lost 17 of 27 when playing the 2nd game of a back to back. In a road game with a total posted at 6 or more goals, Detroit has lost 28 of 41. The home team has won 7 of the last 10 meetings and that trend continues here. Lay the short price! 10* OTTAWA |
|||||||
10-22-19 | Golden Knights -121 v. Blackhawks | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NHL Rotation #57 Tuesday 10* Top Play Vegas Golden Knights Money Line (+) @ Chicago Blackhawks @ 8:35 ET - I successfully went against Vegas last night as they used a #3 goalie and the desperate Flyers (had outshot each of their last two opponents by huge margins but lost both games) were in a great spot for a big home win. Philly got the big home win and sent the Golden Knights out of town with plenty of motivation for their next game. The Knights had defeated the Penguins Saturday in Pittsburgh and they want to finish with a successful road trip. To do so they'll have to get the W tonight at Chicago. Even though this is a back to back spot for Vegas they will have Marc-Andre Fleury back between the pipes for this one. Also, their only prior back to back situation this season saw the Golden Knights win the 2nd game of the back to back and that one was on enemy ice as well as it was at Los Angeles. The Knights have a big edge in special teams as, last night notwithstanding, they have been great this season. As for the Blackhawks, they have struggled with the man advantage and on the penalty kill this season. Look for the Golden Knights to improve to 3-0 this season when off a game which they lost by a margin of 2 or more goals. Chicago has lost 55 of its last 85 games against teams with a winning record and they are hosting the Knights at the absolutely wrong time (off ugly loss) and that leads to another defeat for the Blackhawks when facing a quality team. 10* VEGAS |
|||||||
10-22-19 | Nationals v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
Game of the Month Run Line - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #802 Tuesday 10* Top Play Houston Astros Run Line -1.5 runs (+120) vs Washington Nationals @ 8:08 ET - Great line value here in my opinion because the Astros are nearly a 2 to 1 favorite on the money line but yet we can get Houston in the +120 range by laying the 1.5 runs and taking them on the run line. I know Max Scherzer is a solid pitcher but Gerrit Cole has been unbelievably dominant. In other words, this one belongs to Cole an the Astros! Cole went 20-5 with a 2.50 ERA in the regular season and, for an encore, he has gone 3-0 with a 0.40 ERA in the post-season! Again, Scherzer is solid but he is not as dominant as Cole. In the regular season Scherzer went just 6-5 in 17 night game starts. Also, in the month of September, the Nationals right-hander had a 5.16 ERA in his 5 starts. By the way, 9 straight Washington games (and 14 of their past 15) have been decided by a margin of 2 or more runs. In other words, a 1-run game unlikely here. As for the Astros, 13 of their past 14 games have been decided by 2 or more runs. Looking only at Houston's wins, 13 of the Astros past 14 victories have come by a margin of 2 or more runs. The Astros are the most dominant home team in MLB in 2019 and that continues in Game 1 of the Worlds Series. 10* HOUSTON -1.5 runs |
|||||||
10-22-19 | Pelicans +7 v. Raptors | Top | 122-130 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
TNT Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #501 Tuesday 10* New Orleans Pelicans (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - The Pelicans are without Zion Williamson due to his injury but lets not forget that the Raptors no longer have Kawhi Leonard. That said, I feel we have great line value here with this line as it first opened up around a 5 and is now up to a 7 as of early game day morning. New Orleans has gone 51-36 ATS in road games the past two seasons. Also, within that stat for the Pelicans is a tightener as well. New Orleans is 13-7 / 65% ATS when they are a road dog in a range of +6.5 to +12 points. As you can see with the huge total posted on this game, a lot of points are expected in this one. That is another key that trends very much AGAINST Toronto here. The Raptors, in a home game where the total is posted at 220 or more, have gone 16-28-3 ATS long-term. Look for the Pelicans to take this one to the wire north of the border Tuesday. Having Jrue Holiday back at the point is a key for the Pelicans as he missed the final 5 weeks of last season and is a tremendous player and a floor leader. Also, I like the addition of JJ Redick for a strong outside shooting threat as well. 10* NEW ORLEANS |
|||||||
10-21-19 | Patriots v. Jets OVER 43 | Top | 33-0 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #475 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Jets vs New England Patriots @ 8:15 ET - Weather can be an issue at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ but that will not be the case tonight. Light winds, clear skies, and comfortable temperatures combine for the perfect setting for plenty of offense in this one. The Patriots Tom Brady has dominated the Jets defense in recent meetings. The Jets got back their QB, Sam Darnold, last week and he had a huge game against the Cowboys. That is the same Dallas defense that made the Eagles offense look like it was "boys against men" last night. In other words, don't be surprised if the Jets offense has more success tonight than many are expecting. That is the "contrarian" aspect of this play and I am looking for plenty of points as a result because I certainly don't expect the Jets D to be able to slow down Brady and Company. New England has averaged 31 points per game in its last 6 games against the Jets. The Patriots are favored by about 10 points in this game. Would anyone be surprised to see a 31-21 final tonight? I sure wouldn't and that would mean this game gets into the low 50s. The over is 61-38 when the Pats enter a game after scoring 35 points or more last game. Yes, the New England defense has been fantastic this season but note that the over is 4-2 when the Patriots enter a game after allowing 14 points or less in 4 straight games. Also, the over is on a 10-4 run the last 14 times the Jets have played a team with a winning record. 10* OVER the total in New York Jets |
|||||||
10-21-19 | Golden Knights v. Flyers +110 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 110 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
NHL Network Rout - Rickenbach NHL Rotation #34 Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Flyers Money Line (+) vs Vegas Golden Knights @ 7:05 ET - The Flyers hit a tough stretch after opening up the season 2-0. A trip to western Canada did not go well but Philadelphia did outshoot Edmonton 52-22 in the road trip finale. The Flyers then followed that up by outshooting Dallas 39-16 on Saturday night in their first game back on home ice after the road trip. Inexplicably Philly lost BOTH these games despite a combined 91-38 edge in shots on goal. These types of things happen but they are head-scratchers for sure and look for the Flyers to finally be rewarded for their efforts tonight. On Monday, Philadelphia catches Vegas off a shutout win over Pittsburgh Saturday. Vegas is 6-3 this season and off B2B wins but they have yet to win 3 straight this season as they are 0-2 both times they entered a game off B2B wins. Also, extending back to last season (and including their first round playoff exit at the hands of the Sharks), the Golden Knights have lost 8 of their past 12 road games! Superb home dog value here as the Flyers next home game is not until Saturday and they have a road game against a Western Conference foe on deck for Thursday. In other words, there is no way they are overlooking the Golden Knights and they also have revenge for a 1-0 home shutout to the Knights last October. Philadelphia held the edge in shots on goal in that game. Prior to that one the Flyers had won 2 of their 3 prior meetings with Vegas and Monday night they will get right back into the win column against the Golden Knights. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
|||||||
10-20-19 | Eagles +3 v. Cowboys | Top | 10-37 | Loss | -119 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #473 Sunday NFL 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 8:20 ET - Dallas has lost 3 straight games. That said, the ability to get +3 in going against them in a huge divisional rivalry game is an absolutely massive value. Keep in mind, the Cowboys have 3 wins this season and those came against teams that are now a combined 3-14 on the season. The Eagles, like Dallas, are only 3-3 on the season but they at least have one signature win as they handed Green Bay (now 5-1) their only loss of the season. That is the same Packers team that beat the Cowboys. Also, Philly absolutely dominated the Jets and the Cowboys are off a loss to the Jets in New York last week. The Eagles are getting a little help back in the secondary this week and that will be a key against Dak Prescott and the Cowboys. Note that Dallas has beaten Philly 3 straight times but one of those victories was the meaningless season finale two years ago when the Eagles were resting players for their playoff run which culminated in a Super Bowl Title. That said though, Philadelphia certainly hasn't forgotten about being swept by their most hated rivals since taking home the Lombardi trophy! It is payback time Sunday night in Big D and right now, Carson Wentz is playing more consistently than Prescott. Wentz has one more TD toss and HALF as many picks as Prescott so far this season. Also, the Eagles rush defense is one of the best in the league and Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott has struggled against top competition this season. When Philly is playing with revenge against an NFC foe and the Eagles are on the road and entering the game off an ugly ATS loss by a double digit margin, they are 8-1 ATS! After getting embarrassed at Minnesota last week, the Eagles come out with fire this week and get their revenge. Look for the Eagles to get the upset but I'll grab the points as added insurance. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
|||||||
10-20-19 | Canadiens v. Wild OVER 6 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 104 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach NHL Rotation #25 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Wild vs Montreal Canadiens @ 5:05 ET - My first inclination here was to take the Wild at home over a Canadiens team playing the 2nd game of a back to back. However, I can not trust Minnesota goalie Devan Dubnyk. So far this season the Wild netminder has a 4.44 GAA and .867 save percentage in his five starts. That has led me to the over in this match-up because you know the Wild are also hungry to respond after losing 4-0 at Montreal on Thursday. This is a chance for them to get immediate revenge as this is their first game since then. I expect Minnesota to take advantage of catching the Habs in a back to back because that means it is likely Keith Kinkaid will get the start here since Carey Price was between the pipes yesterday. Kinkaid had a 3.36 GAA with the Devils last season and then struggled and allowed 5 goals in his only start this season. He'll also likely be rusty since this is just his 2nd start of the season! Kinkaid also took a puck off the hand in practice and may not be 100% here. All factors considered, we should see plenty of goals given the situational factors with this match-up. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
|||||||
10-20-19 | Ravens v. Seahawks OVER 48 | Top | 30-16 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #469 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Seattle Seahawks vs Baltimore Ravens @ 4:25 ET - The Ravens like to blitz a lot but Seahawks QB Russell Wilson has had great success against the blitz this season. Overall, both Seattle and Baltimore are enjoying plenty of success on the offensive side of the ball. Additionally, the weakness of each team on defense is against the pass. In other words, look for plenty of points in this one. The kicker for me in terms of the tremendous value here is that this total was as high as a 51 and yet is now as low as a 48 as of early game day morning. Jump on the line value available with this one. The over is 3-0 in Ravens road games this season and, overall, on the year Baltimore is scoring an average of 31 points per game. The Ravens have not been held below 23 points in any of their games this season. The Seahawks have not been held below 21 points in any of their games this season. As you can see with these numbers, we're already in the mid-forties with this total even if both teams have season-worst performances in terms of point totals on the board and I simply don't see that happening in this non-conference match-up. These AFC/NFC battles tend to be played with a little less intensity on defense and, again, both teams have had trouble against the pass this season. The over is 4-1 in Seattle's last 5 games and they have scored at least 27 points in all 5 of those games! In fact, that is another way to look at this one too. If Ravens score at least their minimum on the season (23) and the Seahawks score at least their minimum the past 5 games (27) you have this game already getting to 50 points! The over is 14-7 when the Ravens are entering a game off 3 straight divisional games! The over is 9-2 when Seattle is off a win by a margin of 6 or less points. Also, the over is 8-3 in Seahawks games against non-conference opposition. 10* OVER the total in Seattle |
|||||||
10-19-19 | Winnipeg v. Calgary -6.5 | Top | 33-37 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #688 Saturday 10* Top Play Calgary Stampeders (-) vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 7 ET - I am well aware of the fact that Calgary has had trouble covering the spread this season but in this revenge game I foresee them getting a big home win. The odds makers opened this one up with a line of -7 with good reason. The fact is that the Stampeders are 6-2 at home this season and also 6-1 in divisional games. Note that Winnipeg is only 3-5 on the road this season. The Blue Bombers got a win last week but they previously had lost 4 of 5. Unlike slumping Winnipeg, Calgary actually entered last week's action having won 4 of 5 SU and they won again last week! The Stamps have dominated this series long-term and, having lost at Winnipeg at earlier this season (a rare loss for them against the Blue Bombers) I know they won't take their foot off the gas in this one. As a result, look for a home win by a double digit margin. 10* CALGARY |
|||||||
10-19-19 | Arizona State v. Utah OVER 45.5 | Top | 3-21 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #359 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Utah Utes vs Arizona State Sun Devils @ 6 ET - The Utes were picked off 3 times in last year's match-up with the Sun Devils and this helped lead the way to Arizona State getting the win by 18 points. That said, not only is this a revenge game for Utah, they also are quite likely to keep their foot on the gas just like ASU did in last year's big win. That is why I love the over in this match-up even though a little bit of rain and 15 mph winds could be around Salt Lake City this afternoon. The fact is that Arizona State's defense is overvalued because they have played so many bad offenses. Now they face a tough Utes offense and, keep in mind, ASU did allow 34 points both times they were "challenged" this season as Colorado and Washington State each put that number on the Sun Devils defense. As for the Utah defense, it certainly is a good one but they did allow 30 points to USC and also have allowed 26 points or more in each of their last 3 meetings with the Sun Devils. In other words, Arizona State has a history of success when facing the Utes defense and, despite being a double digit dog in this one, ASU hangs around in this one for awhile which also helps it get over the low total. The Sun Devils are off a tight win versus Washington State last week and the over is 20-11 when Arizona State is off a win by a margin of 6 or less points. Utah's offense has plenty of confidence rolling into this one after hanging 52 on the scoreboard at Oregon State last week. Note that the Utes over is 20-11 when off a road win by a double digit margin. 10* OVER the total in Utah |
|||||||
10-19-19 | Baylor v. Oklahoma State -4 | Top | 45-27 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #390 Saturday 10* Top Play Oklahoma State Cowboys (-) vs Baylor Bears @ 4 ET - The Bears are 6-0 on the season and, for the first time under head coach Rhule, are ranked in the top 25. That said, the odds makers must have made some kind of mistake here, right? After all, how can the unranked Cowboys be favored over a Baylor team that has won 8 straight games dating back to last season? Exactly! Don't be fooled. It is no mistake. The odds makers know what they are doing. The Bears are off a tough game where they had to rally to force OT and ended up winning in double-OT over Texas Tech. Keep in mind, this was a game in which Baylor was favored by double digits so, in other words, quite unimpressive. Speaking of unimpressive, look at the Bears schedule this season! That said, they now face their toughest test of the season and I like an Oklahoma State team playing at home and that comes in rested off a bye week last week! The situation is set up perfect for the Cowboys to roll at home and their potent offense won't take their foot off the gas either. That's because last year the Bears took it to Oklahoma State and won the game 35-31. Now it is time for payback! The Cowboys are 9-1 ATS in the last 10 home games against Baylor. Also, note that the host has won 8 of the last 9 meetings between these teams SU. While the Bears are off a dramatic win last week, the Cowboys suffered a loss by 10 to the Red Raiders two weeks ago at Texas Tech. That was prior to the OSU bye. That is noteworthy here as Oklahoma State is 7-0 ATS the last 7 times in their first game after playing Texas Tech. Also, when playing with extra rest following a SU loss by a double digit margin, the Cowboys are 9-1 ATS! 10* OKLAHOMA STATE |
|||||||
10-18-19 | Stars +123 v. Penguins | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NHL Rotation #61 Friday 10* Top Play Dallas Stars Money Line (+) @ Pittsburgh Penguins @ 7:05 ET - The Stars are off a tight 3-2 loss at Columbus Wednesday and are a much better hockey club than their early season record would indicate. The Penguins are a off a tight OT win over Colorado where they won on a short-handed goal. Give Pittsburgh credit for sure but it was an unlikely win and I love the value we're getting with underdog Dallas here as this has a lot to do with their early season record that, as noted above, does not come anywhere close to being a true measurement of this hockey club. When on a losing streak of 3 or more games, the Stars have won 75 of 128. Pittsburgh, when on a winning streak of 3 or more games, is actually just 13-13 and that has cost Penguins backers $6,300 at a dime per game when in that role. The Stars end their losing streak and, in the process, put an end to the Pens streak! Penguins have been able to get it done without the injured Evgeni Malkin but the determined and hungry road dog will be the more intense team in this one. The Stars have dealt with a number of tight losses and are so much better than their record shows. Grab the underdog value here. 10* DALLAS |
|||||||
10-18-19 | Toronto +10.5 v. Montreal | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #681 Friday 10* Top Play Toronto Argonauts (+) @ Montreal Alouettes @ 7 ET - The Alouettes have already clinched their playoff position. Of course Montreal does not want to go into the post-season on a losing streak but the fact is they are not highly motivated for a blowout win here either. Even if they were I am not sure they would get it as the Als have been scuffling a bit and plus QB Adams was a turnover machine last week! McLeod Bethel-Thompson returned to the starting role for the Argonauts last week and they got a much-needed win versus Ottawa. Trust me, I know that Toronto is not a very good football team as they have had a frustrating season. But some recent organizational changes as well as the strong QB play they got last week plus the fact this is a divisional match-up for pride...all of these factors have me very happy to grab the double digits in points being offered here. The Argos will go hard here and I am not so sure the Als will even be able to match their intensity considering their playoff position is set and they already won at Toronto earlier this season. Now the Argonauts seek to return the favor at Montreal! While they may not get the outright win I do expect this game to be decided by a TD or less! Grab the generous points! The Alouettes are 6-14 ATS (and SU!) the last 20 times they have faced a team with a losing record! Tonight's game is likely to be a much closer game than many are expecting. 10* TORONTO |
|||||||
10-18-19 | Marshall v. Florida Atlantic -5 | Top | 36-31 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #310 Friday 10* Top Play Florida Atlantic Owls (-) vs Marshall Thundering Herd @ 6:30 ET - The Owls got blasted at Marshall last season and are looking forward to revenge here at home. Florida Atlantic is lead by head coach Lane Kiffin and he is on a 13-6 ATS run in games against Conference USA opponents. The Thundering Herd have been trending the other direction as they have lost the money in 13 of their past 18 games! Marshall is off a non-covering win against a bad Old Dominion team and the Thundering Herd entered that game having scored an average of just 16.8 points per game in their 4 prior games. That has a lot to with QB Green not exactly "lighting it up" for the Thundering Herd. On the other hand, Owls QB Robison certainly has been strong this season for FAU. With a very manageable number at home I have no hesitation in laying the short number here. In Kiffin's first year on the job the Owls went 9-0 in conference action in 2017. However, in 2018 they went only 3-5 SU. Of those 5 SU losses, 3 of the opponents were to be faced by FAU again this season. Those 3 were Charlotte, Middle Tennessee, and Marshall. So far the Owls are 2-0 on the revenge tour with wins over the 49ers and Blue Raiders. Now it is time to make it a 3-0 revenge tour sweep by knocking off the Thundering Herd and I look for the Owls to do just that! 10* FLORIDA ATLANTIC |
|||||||
10-17-19 | Chiefs -3 v. Broncos | Top | 30-6 | Win | 102 | 16 h 48 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #303 Thursday 10* Top Play Kansas City Chiefs (-) @ Denver Broncos @ 8:20 ET - Broncos off a home shutout win while the Chiefs are off a home upset loss. That makes this the perfect set up for backing the small home favorite. Patrick Mahomes (ankle) has been upgraded to probable for this game. Chiefs head coach Andy Reid's teams are 11-3 ATS when they enter a game off a straight up loss in non-divisional action and are facing a team off a straight up win. KC is now off back to back losses after a 4-0 start while the Broncos are off back to back wins after an 0-4 start. That makes this the ideal spot to back Kansas City. Denver has gotten the cash just once in their last seven meetings with the Chiefs and the Broncos have not gotten the cash a single time in their last five as a host in this series! There is an old adage about "defense wins football games" and I am well aware of the fact that Denver has the much better defense in this match-up. However, not only is Kansas City's offense much better than the Broncos offensive attack, this one is also simply very strong from a situational standpoint. I don't see KC losing 3 straight and I don't see the Broncos winning 3 straight. That said, I have no hesitation in taking advantage of the line move here and laying the short number with the Chiefs. 10* KANSAS CITY |
|||||||
10-16-19 | Maple Leafs v. Capitals OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NHL Rotation #29 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Capitals vs Toronto Maple Leafs @ 7:05 ET - After feeling a beat cheated by last night's Toronto total (over 6 was 4-1 after 2 periods but ended up a tough push), I'll come right back with the Maple Leafs over tonight. Toronto certainly has a lot of offensive firepower and they are averaging scoring 4 goals per game this season. Capitals goalie Braden Holtby is struggling badly to open up this season and, of course, Washington wants him to work through it. That said, he's likely to get the start tonight. However, even if the Caps turn to 22 year old rookie Ilya Samsonov, I still like my chances here. He has been strong this season but Samsonov would be facing a very tough challenge in the form of the Maple Leafs and lets not forget he is still a rookie. He is going to have his first NHL moments where he gets "rattled" and Toronto can certainly test him early and often in that regard. The Capitals may very well go with Holtby between the pipes and I don't see him snapping his skid against a very tough team. As for the Leafs, we are likely to see their back-up goalie between the pipes because Frederik Andersen was in the crease last night. #2 Maple Leafs goalie Michael Hutchinson allowed 5 goals in his lone start this season. The Capitals have scored 15 goals in their past 4 games so you can see why I am expecting both teams to light the lamp early and often in this one. 10* OVER the total in Washington |
|||||||
10-15-19 | Cardinals v. Nationals OVER 7.5 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #913 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs St Louis Cardinals @ 8:05 ET - Pleasant temperatures and a light southeast breeze and a pitching match-up that should lead to plenty of runs. The Nationals exploded for 8 runs in last night's home win and they should have another big night at the plate tonight against a young hurler whom had some struggles in his first post-season start. The key to the value with tonight's over is that I also expect the Cardinals bats, for the first time in this series, to finally get going. That's because St Louis is facing Patrick Corbin. Though the Nationals southpaw enjoyed success against them at Busch Stadium last month, he gave up 6 earned runs in 5 innings in his lone home start against the Cardinals this season. Also, Corbin has had some post-season struggles this year in his first ever playoff action. Corbin's lone start had strong overall numbers but saw him walk 5 in 6 innings. Then in his 3 bullpen appearances, the Nationals southpaw had one that was just to retire one batter (in this series) and then in the prior series versus the Dodgers he had a solid 1 and 1/3 inning stint but a disastrous 2/3 inning stint. Look for the Cardinals to get to Corbin early and often but note that St Louis starter Dakota Hudson is also likely to struggle here. The young right-hander was quite shaky in his first-ever post-season appearance last week. Also, the Nationals are getting a 3rd look at him this season and just saw him a month ago. The Nats are a very confident team right now as they have won 5 straight games and averaged scoring 5.2 runs per game in the process. In home games, the Nats have averaged 6.4 runs per game their past 13 contests! But, as noted above, I don't see the Cardinals going away quietly in this series and this is an elimination game for them. Against Corbin, the St Louis bats come back to life. 10* OVER the total in Washington |
|||||||
10-14-19 | Lions v. Packers OVER 45.5 | Top | 22-23 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 56 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #275 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions @ 8:15 ET - Chilly temperatures in Green Bay this evening but that is certainly not unusual for mid-October. The positive factors are no precipitation and light winds expected this evening for this divisional battle. Nice weather that will not limit the playbook of either offense. That said, and I am aware of the Davante Adams injury for the Packers, both teams should light up the scoreboard tonight. The over is 3-1 in Lions games this season. The over is a perfect 3-0 the last 3 weeks in Green Bay's games. The Packers are seeking revenge for last year's season-ending shutout at the hands of the division rival Lions. That game stayed under the total as Green Bay didn't contribute at all to the total. Of course that changes in a big way tonight and, prior to that meeting, the over was a perfect 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between these teams. The Lions have allowed 24 points or more in 3 of their 4 games this season. Green Bay has allowed an average of 29 points per game the past two weeks. Though the Packers allowed "only" 24 points to the Cowboys last week, they did allow over 400 yards of passing at Dallas. The Lions will be able to attack the Packers D through the air. Detroit ranks as one of the better passing attacks in the league but their pass D ranks near the bottom. This is another reason I am expecting both Stafford and Rodgers to light it up through the air in tonight's game. The over is 3-1 in Detroit's games when they are a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points. The over is a perfect 6-0 in Packers games when they are a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. 10* OVER the total in Green Bay |
|||||||
10-14-19 | Cardinals +120 v. Nationals | Top | 1-8 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
NLCS Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #909 Monday 10* Top Play St Louis Cardinals Money Line (+) @ Washington Nationals @ 7:35 ET - The Cardinals Jack Flaherty is enjoying an incredible stretch. He is 2-0 with a 2.77 ERA in the post-season. He also finished up the 2019 regular season with a phenomenal 2nd half. Flaherty, after the All-Star break, went 7-2 with a 0.91 ERA in 15 starts. The Nationals Stephen Strasburg is certainly also pitching very well of late. Additionally, Strasburg has fantastic post-season history. However, another edge that Flaherty has here is the Nationals lineup has not faced him this season. Conversely, the Cardinals lineup will be seeing Strasburg for the 3rd time this season and that includes just 4 weeks ago in St Louis! With the Cardinals down 0-2 in this series and having their hottest pitcher on the mound and being installed as an underdog here (since they are on the road for this one), the Cards are a strong value play in this spot. 10* ST LOUIS |
|||||||
10-14-19 | Wild v. Senators OVER 6 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -111 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NHL Rotation #5 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Ottawa Senators vs Minnesota Wild @ 1:05 ET - The Wild are the only NHL team without a point in the standings this season. Minnesota is not only win-less on the season, all 4 of their losses have come in regulation. That said, this spot certainly looks like a great one to back the Wild for getting their first victory and that is why they're favored on the road in this game at Ottawa. The Senators entered the season expected to be one of the worst teams in the league and also the Sens are off a rare big win as they upset Tampa Bay on Saturday. However, the reason I am playing the over here rather than Minny is because I simply can't trust the Wild defense as I consider the way they've been playing in their own zone including struggles between the pipes. Minnesota has allowed an average of 5.25 goals per game on the season. As for the Senators, they had allowed an average of 5 goals per game in their first 3 games this season prior to holding the Lightning to just 2 goals in Saturday's win. That said, this one looks like the perfect spot for a high-scoring game. The Sens scored 4 goals Saturday and have some confidence in terms of putting pucks in the back of the net after winning a game like that over a solid Lightning hockey club. You also know the Wild are going to come out strong here as they look for that elusive first victory of the season. That should lead to a high-scoring barn-burner in this early non-conference match-up Monday. 10* OVER the total in Ottawa |
|||||||
10-13-19 | Steelers v. Chargers OVER 41.5 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #273 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Chargers vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 8:20 ET - Don't be surprised if QB Devlin Hodges plays well for the Steelers on Sunday night. Getting some work in against the Ravens last week (and nearly rallying Pittsburgh for the win) will serve him well here on the road at LA. The Chargers enter this game off a disappointing performance as they managed just 13 points against the Broncos last week as they turned the ball over 3 times. They had scored 30 points the prior week at Miami. The Los Angeles offense, under QB Philip Rivers, will get back on track here against a Steelers defense that, other than dominating hapless Cincinnati, has struggled often this season. Pittsburgh's non-Bengals game have seen them allow an average of 27 points (NOT including OT) in 4 games! The Steelers offense has averaged 24 points per game their last 4 games. The over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these teams and ALL 5 games totaled at least 44 points! The low total posted on this game could be a key as well as Pittsburgh's over is 4-2 in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points. The Chargers over is 3-0 off a home loss against a division rival. The LA over is 11-4 off an upset loss to a division rival as a home favorite. Rivers bounces back this week but Hodges plays well for the Steelers too and a surprising shootout breaks out in beautiful weather for this one Sunday evening. 10* OVER the total in LA CHARGERS |
|||||||
10-13-19 | Penguins v. Jets OVER 6.5 | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach NHL Rotation #85 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Winnipeg Jets vs Pittsburgh Penguins @ 7:05 ET - The Jets and Penguins were both in action yesterday. Each used their #1 goalie as Winnipeg started Conner Hellebuyck and Pittsburgh started Matt Murray. That sets this one up well as it is a back to back likely involving back-up goalies. Additionally, these teams met earlier in the week in Pittsburgh and the game was 4 to 1 in the 2nd period but ended up staying under the total. Considering that as well as the fact the Penguins game yesterday totaled 11 goals and the Jets defense (young and inexperienced) is still somewhat of a concern, I like the odds of a high-scoring game Sunday evening. Pens are 44-28 to the over after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game. The Jets are known for scoring a lot of goals particularly on home ice. This will be just their 2nd home game of the season and the Jets will look to make the most of it and they are flying high after yesterday's OT win at Chicago. 10* OVER the total in Winnipeg |
|||||||
10-13-19 | Titans +2 v. Broncos | Top | 0-16 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #271 Sunday NFL 10* Top Play Tennessee Titans (+) @ Denver Broncos @ 4:25 ET - The Titans lost to the Bills by 7 points last week but they missed 4 field goals in that game! As for the Broncos, they are off their first win of the season and it was an upset win at Los Angeles over the Chargers. After that big road win over a division rival, Denver is in the perfect spot to take a tumble back down to reality this week. The win last week for the Broncos was their first ATS cover too in their past 9 games! As for the Titans, they have covered 5 of their last 6 non-divisional road games. Tennessee's strength on offense is their running game. The Broncos weakness on the other side of the ball is stopping the run. That said, and with Denver off a win and the Titans off a loss, the road dog is the play here! In games 5 through 8 of a season, when Tennessee is off a SU loss and facing an opponent off an outright upset win as an underdog, the Titans have gone 9-2 ATS. Also when in games 5 through 8 of a season and off an ATS loss where they missed covering by a double digit margin, the Titans have gone 9-2 ATS in their next game when that game is against an opponent with a losing record on the season. The Broncos, in games 5 through 8 of a season, are 0-7 ATS off a divisional game and facing an opponent off a non-divisional game. Another issue for Denver here is they have a huge game coming up Thursday as it is a divisional game hosting the Chiefs. That makes this a sandwich spot for the Broncos (off a big divisional game and with a big divisional game up next). The fact their next game is Thursday also hurts Denver in this one. Look for the Titans to get the upset. 10* TENNESSEE |
|||||||
10-12-19 | Nebraska +7.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 7-34 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #129 Saturday 10* Top Play Nebraska Cornhuskers (+) @ Minnesota Golden Gophers @ 7:30 ET - I am aware of the injury issues for the Huskers and that includes QB Adrian Martinez and WR JD Speilman. My sources are indicating both will play at Minnesota tonight. If that would end up not happening, the fact is that I still expected Nebraska to get the cover here and they absolutely have a shot at the outright upset too. The Golden Gophers are 5-0 on the season but they are so vastly over-rated at this point. Minnesota has seen 4 of their 5 wins come by 7 points or less and, keep in mind, their schedule has been very weak. The Gophers have beaten South Dakota State (FCS School), Fresno State (2 OT), and Georgia Southern (Sun Belt school). Their two big ten wins came against Purdue (QB Sindelar HURT) and Illinois (one of worst Big Ten programs). Now Minnesota faces a Nebraska team that is 4-2 on the season and that blew a huge lead in an OT loss at Colorado and whose only other loss was against a Ohio State team that is one of the best teams in the nation this year on BOTH sides of the ball. That said, the Huskers are flying under the radar a bit heading into this contest. As for Minny, their 5-0 record has them a little over-hyped right now and I feel an upset is going to be the end result in this one Saturday night. If the Huskers fall short of that they'll still get the cover in my opinion. The Cornhuskers hammered Minnesota by 25 points last year and have won and covered in 3 of the last 4 meetings. Nebraska has covered 22 of their last 32 road games. If Martinez can't go or gives it a go and then must exit, note that Noah Vedral has a dozen games of experience and the back-up QB did lead the game winning drive last week. The Corhuskers lone loss (ATS and SU) in their last 4 meetings with the Golden Gophers was in their last visit to Minnesota. The Huskers got hammered in that one in 2017 and now it is payback time. 10* NEBRASKA |
|||||||
10-12-19 | Nationals v. Cardinals +130 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 9 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #906 Saturday 10* Top Play St Louis Cardinals Money Line (+) vs Washington Nationals @ 4:08 PM ET - Baseball is a crazy sport. On Wednesday the Cardinals score 10 runs in the first inning in their series-clinching win over the Braves. Then on Friday they manage only 1 hit at home in their first game of the NLCS against the Nationals. I love backing a team in a spot like this. Off a shutout loss at home yesterday, the Cards will bounce right back here. Scherzer starts for Washington and he went 0-2 with a 5.27 ERA in his starts against St Louis this season. The Cardinals go with Wainwright here and he was great against the Braves in Game 3 of the NLDS and also had a superb 2.56 ERA at home in the regular season this year! As a home dog off a home shutout loss and with potentially having the pitching edge as well here, the Cards are the play! 10* ST LOUIS |
|||||||
10-12-19 | Montreal v. Winnipeg -3.5 | Top | 24-35 | Win | 100 | 5 h 20 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #694 Saturday 10* Top Play Winnipeg Blue Bombers (-) vs Montreal Alouettes @ 4 ET - The Blue Bombers saw the Stampeders beat the Roughriders yesterday. How does that impact Winnipeg? It means that with a win today the Blue Bombers can also each 20 points in the West Division standings just like Calgary and Saskatchewan. I like having the Bombers off a loss here and look for Streveler to have a much better game under center. Winnipeg is off a loss and Montreal is off a win. In a spot like this I'll gladly lay the short number with the small home favorite off a loss. The Blue Bombers are 5-2 ATS in their 7 home games this season and only have 1 SU home loss on the year. The Alouettes have lost 4 of 7 road games this season. Also, Montreal is thrilled they have clinched a playoff spot. Could they be flat after last week's win? I just don't think they'll be able to match the intensity of a hungry Bombers team off a loss in this one. 10* WINNIPEG |
|||||||
10-11-19 | Nationals v. Cardinals UNDER 8 | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #902 Thursday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in St Louis Cardinals vs Washington Nationals @ 8:05 ET - Chilly weather in St Louis for this one with temperatures in the 40s and breezy conditions and temperatures falling during the game. With Miles Mikolas having a 3.01 ERA at home this season and a 2.17 ERA at home last season and also having pitched well in this post-season, it is unlikely the Nationals will do much at the plate in this one. At the same time, note that the Cardinals are likely to be shut down by the Washington pitcher in this one. Anibal Sanchez gets the start for the Nationals here and he has a 2.98 ERA in his post-season appearances in his career. Also, last season with the Braves he produced a 2.83 ERA in the regular season. This season he held hitters to a .225 batting average over the final two months of the regular season and Sanchez was fantastic in his post-season appearance against the Dodgers last week. This sets up very well to be a pitchers duel. 10* UNDER the total in St Louis |
|||||||
10-11-19 | Colorado State v. New Mexico OVER 65.5 | Top | 35-21 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #111 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New Mexico Lobos vs Colorado State Rams @ 8 ET - Last week New Mexico lost to San Jose State and the Lobos scored only 21 points. However, a lot of that had to do with 6 turnovers in the game! New Mexico is likely to bounce back at home this week and score plenty of points against a weak Colorado State defense and with pleasant weather expected in Albuquerque this evening. The Rams are also off a low-scoring game but they faced a tough San Diego State defense. That said, the New Mexico defense is weak and the Colorado State offense will take advantage and get right back on track here. The Lobos pass defense is allowing 319 yards per game and even with the Rams down to a back-up QB they had been impressive until running into a tough Aztecs defense last week. The Colorado State weakness is a defense that many teams dominate and the Rams impressive numbers on D last week certainly were an aberration due to facing a San Diego State offense that ranks as one of the worst in the nation. Prior to last week the Rams had allowed 45.5 points per game in 4 games against FBS opponents. The Lobos are allowing 39.6 points per game on the season. This one will feature plenty of offense all game long. Two of the worst defenses in the nation matched up here and each team's offense can move the ball quite well. New Mexico has averaged 47 points per game in two home games this season. Colorado State had averaged 32.4 points per game on the season before being held down by San Diego State last week. They'll respond big here and both teams move up and down the field quickly in this one. 10* OVER the total in New Mexico |
|||||||
10-11-19 | Islanders +160 v. Hurricanes | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach NHL Rotation #55 Friday 10* Top Play New York Islanders Money Line (+) @ Carolina Hurricanes @ 7:35 ET - This is simply way too much value to pass up on. Yes the Hurricanes are 4-0 on the season but EACH of their first THREE wins came AFTER regulation! Now, finally off their first truly impressive win of the season (6-3 at Florida), the Canes take on a revenge minded Islanders team fully capable of an upset road win here. Last spring in the Eastern Conference semi-finals, Carolina swept the Isles right out of the play-offs. Keep in mind the Islanders are coached by Barry Trotz. Yes, the same Trotz whom led the Capitals to the Stanley Cup Championship over the Golden Knights the season before! The Isles probably got caught looking ahead to this game as they are off their worst game of this young season as they lost 5-2 to Edmonton. New York is known for being stingy when it comes to allowing goals. That said, the fact the Oilers got 5 on them isn't sitting well with the Isles. So here you have a situation where you get a huge underdog price on a quality team that is playing with revenge and off a bad game and facing a team that is off their best game of the young season and definitely over-valued at this point. I'll grab the dog in this type of situation every single time and note that Carolina also just lost Jordan Martinook to injury. Not only is he a solid right-winger he also is an alternate captain. His loss will be felt and he is out for 8 weeks or so most likely. Payback time here for an undervalued angry road dog ready for revenge. 10* NEW YORK ISLANDERS |
|||||||
10-11-19 | Ottawa v. Toronto OVER 47.5 | Top | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #689 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Argonauts vs Ottawa Redblacks @ 7 ET - No pressure on either team here as both know the playoffs are out of sight. Even Ottawa knows this is the case, barring a miracle, and that is why Arndt is getting the start at QB in this one. Look for Arndt, under no pressure, to have a big game here as he has had only limited action so far this season but now gets the start and gets to take on a struggling Toronto defense. The Argonauts counter with Bethel-Thompson at QB and he had a huge game in a rout of the Redblacks in their earlier meeting this season. With Toronto making some organizational changes coming into this week there is no shortage of motivation for the Argos to again have a huge game against their rivals from Ottawa. However, the Redblacks want payback for that ugly home loss earlier this season and, to get it, they're going to have put up plenty of points too because their defense has been struggling also. Rain will be coming to Toronto but it is not expected until after this game is already in the books and with both teams unlikely to enjoy success on the ground their will be a heavy dose of the "aerial attack" from both teams in this one. The result should be this one flying over the low total. Ottawa has allowed 35.2 points per game their past 5 games. The Argonauts have allowed 33.3 points per game in their last 4 home games. Overall, in just their past two games the Argos have allowed 48 points per game! 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
|||||||
10-10-19 | UL-Monroe v. Texas State OVER 61.5 | Top | 24-14 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #105 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas State Bobcats vs UL Monroe Warhawks @ 9:15 ET - I don't trust either one of these defenses. Last season's meeting was low-scoring but that followed back to back meetings that totaled over 70 points each of the prior two seasons. That is the type of game I am looking for here. The Warhawks defense has struggled badly this season. The Bobcats defense, when facing FBS level competition, has been unable to stop the run this season. Of course when teams can run on you then that also opens up the aerial attack as an option too because the run game has to be respected and a defense can't just sit back on the pass. The point is that the Warhawks will be able to move the ball both ways tonight on this sub-par Texas State defense. Likewise the Bobcats should enjoy success against a UL Monroe defense that has allowed 45 points or more in 3 of its last 4 games overall. In terms of just looking at road games the Warhawks allowed 58.5 points per game. That was against tougher competition than what UL Monroe is facing here but it is plain to see that the Warhawks do have issues on the defensive side of the ball. UL Monroe, after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games, has a record of 12-6 to the over. The Bobcats, as a home underdog of 7 points or less, have gone over 3 straight times. Look for 4-0 here! 10* OVER the total in Texas State |
|||||||
10-10-19 | Giants +17.5 v. Patriots | Top | 14-35 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #103 Thursday 10* Top Play New York Giants (+) @ New England Patriots @ 8:20 ET - This is simply too many points. Yes, I am aware of the history rookie quarterbacks have when visiting Foxboro for the first time against Belichick and Brady. However, I am also aware that the Giants have covered 12 of their last 18 in non-conference action and 7 of their last 9 as a road dog. Also, certainly I would never argue the fact that New England is a great team. They prove themselves year in an year out. However, before you go announcing them as Super Bowl champions this season, note that they have played only one tough team (Buffalo) this season. Note that the struggling Steelers they faced are 1-4 on the season. Additionally, the Patriots other 3 games were against the Jets, Dolphins and Redskins. Those teams are a combined 0-13 SU on the season! Not exactly a powerhouse schedule that the Pats have faced thus far. That being said, don't be surprised when the scrappy Giants hang around in this one and get the cover as massive underdogs. 10* NEW YORK GIANTS |
|||||||
10-10-19 | Wild v. Jets OVER 6 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 102 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NHL Rotation #35 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Winnipeg Jets vs Minnesota Wild @ 8:05 ET - The Jets are off a 4-1 win at Pittsburgh on Tuesday but Winnipeg allowed the Penguins to generate 38 shots on goal. The Jets got a huge game from goalie Connor Hellebuyck in that one but lets not forget the Jets had allowed a ton of goals in the first 3 games this season. Winnipeg is very young in terms of the defense this season and it is showing. That said, facing a Wild team that has been a nemesis for them is unlikely to do them any favors. Also, Minnesota comes into this game extra hungry as they are winless in their first two games this season. The key for the Jets to finally get past the Wild is to put plenty of pressure with their talent up front. That should lead to plenty of scoring changes and Winnipeg is scoring very well early this season. Also, this is the Jets home opener so I am expecting a great effort from them. As a result, look for plenty of goals in this one as the Wild tallied at least 3 goals in each of their 5 meetings last season. As for the Jets this season, they have tallied at least 4 goals in 3 of 4 games this season. Look for a 4-3 or 5-4 type game here. 10* OVER the total in Winnipeg |
|||||||
10-10-19 | Rays v. Astros UNDER 7 | Top | 1-6 | Push | 0 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #952 Thursday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays @ 7:07 ET - The Astros Gerrit Cole has been absolutely dominating and certainly it is highly unlikely that he is anything but dominant in this outing at home on Thursday. Cole has allowed a TOTAL of only FIVE earned runs in his last SEVEN starts! 4 of his last 5 outings have resulted in an under. As for the Rays Tyler Glasnow, he has had great numbers this season and is capable of working deeper into a game. After a respectable start against the Astros in game one marred only by a 2-run homer he allowed, Glasnow may be even stronger in Game Five after working out the nerves in his first ever post-season appearance! Of course this match-up also involves two of the best bullpens in baseball. I know the total is very low but I just can't foresee either team enjoying much success at the plate in this one. Cole's dominance is off the charts and lets not forget that Glasnow went 6-1 with a 1.78 ERA in his dozen regular season starts while holding the opposition to a paltry .186 batting averaged. 10* UNDER the total in Houston |
|||||||
10-09-19 | Appalachian State v. UL-Lafayette | Top | 17-7 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #102 Wednesday 10* Top Play UL-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (pick) vs Appalachian State Mountaineers @ 8 ET - This line is right around a "pick'em" even though the Mountaineers are undefeated this season and have also won each of their last 6 meetings with the Ragin' Cajuns. Long-time followers know how I feel about spots like this. I am going contrarian here. This line will be so attractive to those wanting to back Appalachian State for their SU winning streaks (this season and in this series) to continue. As usual I am going against the grain and backing the other side here. However, it certainly is not without plenty of logic. For one thing UL-Lafayette is not lacking for motivation as they lost in the regular season and in the Sun Belt playoff game versus the Mountaineers last season. Also, though both offenses are rolling early this season, the difference in this match-up is the way the defenses have been playing. While Appalachian State is allowing 420 yards per game, the Ragin' Cajuns have shown improvement on defense this season and are allowing only 345 yards per game. When entering a revenge game on a winning streak of 2 or more games SU (in this case 4 straight), Louisiana is 6-0 ATS! UL-Lafayette is also 9-1 ATS versus a conference opponents with a winning percentage of .667 or better. The Ragin' Cajuns are also 6-0 ATS in their game preceding facing Arkansas State. The Mountaineers are 1-6 ATS when when facing an opponent with revenge that is coming off a SU win by a double digit margin. Plenty of support for a play on the home team here and keep in mind Appalachian State had a new coach this year as Scott Satterfield is now the head man at Louisville. The Ragin' Cajuns finally get over the hump against the Mountaineers. This is the year the streak snaps! 10* UL-LAFAYETTE |
|||||||
10-09-19 | Devils v. Flyers -129 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
NBC Sports Network Rout - Rickenbach NHL Rotation #20 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Flyers Money Line (-) vs New Jersey Devils @ 7:35 ET - The Flyers are well rested as this will be just their 2nd game of the season. Of course that is because their first game was played in Prague, Czech Republic and the fact it was on Friday means they have had plenty of time to adjust since returning to Philadelphia. The Flyers certainly weren't perfect in their season opener but they did look quite sharp and easily could have won the game by more than a single goal. Carter Hart looked sharp in goal and Philly really skated well in the game. I expect more of the same here and I expect Philadelphia to take advantage of a divisional foe that is off to a shaky start this season. After blowing a 4-goal lead and losing their season opener 5-4 to Winnipeg, the Devils then preceded to get blasted 7-2 at Buffalo. Unlike Philly, New Jersey has early season issues between the pipes as the Flyers certainly hold the edge in goal with Hart in the crease! This is Philadelphia's home opener and their only game on home ice until Saturday the 19th when they host the Stars! In other words, the Flyers surely want to make the most of this opportunity and I fully expect they will do just that. Both the Devils and Flyers are expected to be improved teams this season but, early on, it is the latter that is looking like they have gelled more quickly coming out of training camp. That said, the Flyers are the play here at a very reasonable price on home ice. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
|||||||
10-09-19 | Cardinals -110 v. Braves | Top | 13-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #913 Wednesday 10* Top Play St Louis Cardinals Money Line (-) @ Atlanta Braves @ 5 ET - Honestly this line does not make sense and that is precisely why I am backing the Cardinals in this one! Typical contrarian play for me but this is the type of stuff that consistently cashes. Keep in mind, the Braves Mike Foltneywicz had a much better start in Game 2 of this series than the Cardinals Jack Flaherty had in Game 1. Also, Atlanta finished the regular season 19 games over .500 at home on the year. St Louis finished the regular season as as a .500 team in road games. That said, how is it that the Cards are the favorite here? Precisely my friends and that is why I am pounding St Louis in this game. It is where the sharp action is on this game and we're going to be part of that. Keep in mind Flaherty had an 0.91 ERA in his 15 starts after the All Star break. He's fully capable of resuming his domination in this "winner takes all" Game 5. As for the Braves Foltneywicz, he had a 4.54 ERA in the regular season this year and had a 7.50 ERA (with command problems) in his two post-season starts last year. In other words, perhaps the post-season pressure again gets to him here and too many walks are again a problem just like the 2018 playoffs. Either way, I am backing the Cards and Flaherty for the road win in this one! 10* ST LOUIS |
|||||||
10-08-19 | Sharks v. Predators OVER 6 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 104 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NHL Rotation #11 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Nashville Predators vs San Jose Sharks @ 8:05 ET - The Sharks are 0-3 on the season and desperate for a win. The Sharks have not been scoring well at all so most will be looking at the under here. However, in typical contrarian fashion, I am looking the other way in this one. San Jose will have to score plenty to get their first win. That's because they have allowed an average of 4 goals per game on the season and now they take on a Predators team that has already tallied an average of 4 goals per game on the young season. While the Sharks have struggled to score goals they did face revenge-minded Vegas twice early this season. Also, San Jose should get a boost with the return of Evander Kane from his 3-game suspension tonight. The Predators did allow 5 goals in their most recent game, a loss versus Detroit, so the Sharks will surprise many by ending their early-season goal-scoring slump with a big game tonight. The past two seasons the over went 10-5 when San Jose entered a game on a losing streak of 3 or more games. The over is 4-1 in the last 5 games between these hockey clubs. All 5 games totaled at least 6 goals and the 5 games averaged 8 goals per game. Look for the over to improve to 3-0 in Predators games this season as the high-scoring trends continue. 10* OVER the total in Nashville |
|||||||
10-08-19 | Astros -1.5 v. Rays | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -137 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #909 Tuesday 10* Top Play Houston Astros Run Line (-) @ Tampa Bay Rays @ 7:05 ET - Yes the Astros are in the -135 to -140 range on the run line here but I still see value considering the large pitching mismatch here. The Rays are relying on bullpen arms with Diego Castillo starting as the opener in this one and unlikely to pitch deep. On the other side you have the Astros going with dominating ace Justin Verlander. The Houston right-hander is known for dominating in starts that involve elimination as he is 3-1 with a 1.05 ERA the 4 times he has started in a game that is a "clinch" opportunity for his team. Verlander has dominated the Rays this year to say the least! In two regular season starts and one post-season start, Verlander has held Tampa Bay to just 1 earned run only 8 hits while striking out 21 in 19 and 1/3 innings! Of course in comparing these two teams the Astros also have the much stronger lineup and that is why I am comfortable laying the price here and looking for the road team to win this game by 2 or more runs. 10* HOUSTON -1.5 runs |
|||||||
10-08-19 | Stars +135 v. Capitals | Top | 4-3 | Win | 135 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NHL Rotation #3 Tuesday 10* Top Play Dallas Stars Money Line (+) @ Washington Capitals @ 7:05 ET - I am well aware of the fact that the Capitals get Evgeny Kuznetsov back from his suspension tonight. However, I am also well aware that each of these teams has been involved in 1-goal games for each of their first 3 games of the season and yet the results are much different! Washington is 2-0-1 as they have yet to lose in regulation. Dallas is 0-3 as they have yet to even earn a point despite being involved in tight games in each of their first 3. I feel this has led to great underdog line value here with a Stars team that is much better than their record shows. You can also bank on them playing with a lot of emotion here as they are hungry to snap their winless skid that has opened this season. They have never even started a season with 3 consecutive regulation losses since over 20 years ago when the franchise was the Minnesota North Stars! Keep in mind, this is a team that is a top Stanley Cup contender this season. The Stars have had to battle with Boston and St Louis (whom battled for the Cup in June) and so an 0-2 start was not out of the question. However, Dallas is particularly fired up after Sunday's loss at Detroit to the upstart Red Wings and now the Stars, in my opinion, will play with plenty of "fire on ice" in this one! Grab the tremendous underdog line value here. 10* DALLAS |
|||||||
10-07-19 | Browns +5 v. 49ers | Top | 3-31 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #477 Monday 10* Top Play Cleveland Browns (+) @ San Francisco 49ers @ 8:15 ET - In my analysis of yesterday's play on the Packers I noted how over-rated the Cowboys were because their 3-0 start was helped tremendously by playing 3 teams that now are a combined 2-12 on the season! Now we have a similar situation here. The 49ers are coming off their bye week (by the way they have ZERO wins - SU or ATS - the L7 times off a bye) and San Francisco enters this week with a perfect 3-0 record. Note that the Niners have played Tampa Bay, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh. Those 3 teams are a combined 3-12 on the season. Now, I am not saying that Dallas is a bad team or San Francisco is a bad team. I am merely stating that each of these teams is a little over-rated right now in my opinion. I went against the Cowboys in each of their games since their 3-0 start and I won with New Orleans and Green Bay in doing so. Now I will take a scrappy Browns team against go against the 49ers after their 3-0 start. When bettors think of Cleveland they can't help but think of their opening game debacle against the Titans and that is part of the reason there is current value with the Browns. Cleveland did catch a break with the Jets on their schedule but their other games were against Tennessee, the Rams, and Baltimore. All 3 of those teams are tougher than the teams the Niners have faced this season. The Titans went 9-7 last year and just missed the post-season, the Ravens went to the playoffs, and LA went to the Super Bowl. Don't underestimate the Browns here and catching 5 points with them is an absolute high value spot as it makes even a 4-point loss a win at the betting window and I look for Cleveland to be in this one all the way! By the way, the Browns are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against NFC opponents and I also look for them to move to 9-3 ATS their last dozen games in a road dog role as they get the cash here! 10* CLEVELAND |
|||||||
10-07-19 | Blues v. Maple Leafs -121 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -121 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
NHL Network Rout - Rickenbach NHL Rotation #84 Monday 10* Top Play Toronto Maple Leafs Money Line (-) vs St Louis Blues @ 7:05 ET - The situation here is set up perfectly. The Maple Leafs are off a home loss to the Canadiens on Saturday in which Toronto let a 4-1 third period lead slip away. The Leafs were playing the 2nd night of a back to back and it showed. Now, having had Sunday off with a day to rest physically and recharge mentally, the Maple Leafs will come out with plenty of fire tonight as they look to knock off the Stanley Cup Champs. This money line has dropped to the -120 range as of very early game day morning. I understand the move as the Blues are the defending champions and people witnessed the Toronto collapse versus Montreal on Saturday's Hockey Night in Canada. However, did you know that coming into this season the Leafs are projected to finish with more points in the season standings than St Louis. The fact is that Toronto is a legit Stanley Cup contender this season while the Blues are down a few steps from last season's team where everything clicked. Don't get me wrong as St Louis is still a great team but with them off a win and now facing a Maple Leafs team that will be very determined off a frustrating loss, I see this one going to the home team in a big way! The Leafs have won 37 of 60 non-conference games the past two seasons but the Blues have held the upper hand in this series. That said, the motivation is "off the charts" for the home team in this one and they have the talent and skill to finally "get over the hump" when it comes to knocking off St Louis. That said, lay the short price. 10* TORONTO |
|||||||
10-07-19 | Dodgers v. Nationals OVER 8 | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 60 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #903 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 6:40 ET - Max Scherzer was dominant in 1 inning out of the bullpen in Game 2 but it will be interesting to see if that impacts the Nationals right-hander in his Game 4 start. Keep in mind, Scherzer was not as dominant down the stretch run for Washington. He allowed a pair of homers in each of his final 3 starts of the regular season! Also, the Nats right-hander compiled a 5.96 ERA over his final 4 starts of the regular season. The Dodgers yesterday were hungry to bounce back after the Game 2 loss and they got the job done in a big way in Game 3. Now with a chance to slam the door shut on the Nationals season, I expect them to have another big day at the plate against Scherzer and a sub-par Nationals bullpen that struggled in the regular season. However, the reason I am on the over in this one rather than Los Angeles is because I expect Rich Hill to struggle! He is not 100% healthy right now and he pitched less than 6 innings this month. In that short time he walked 6 and hit two batters. Even though Hill still was impressive in terms of strikeouts and not giving up hits, it is clear that he is not 100%. That said, the Nationals have a very potent lineup that was extra tough at home this season. More of the same on tap here and I'll also take advantage of this total dropping from an 8.5 to an 8 as of early game day morning. 10* OVER the total in Washington |
|||||||
10-06-19 | Dodgers v. Nationals OVER 8.5 | Top | 10-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
NOTE: The Nationals are now going with Anibal Sanchez and I am still going with a Top Play in Sunday's Game 3 between the Dodgers and the Nats. Note that Sanchez was strong in May and June but his ERA in the months of July, August, and September hung right around the 4.00 mark. He has struggled in 2 of his last 4 starts against the Dodgers and LA bounces back at the plate here after Friday's loss. ORIGINAL analysis: Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #955 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 7:45 ET - Max Scherzer was dominant in 1 inning out of the bullpen in Game 2 but it will be interesting to see if that impacts the Nationals right-hander in his Game 3 start. Keep in mind, Sxherzer was not as dominant down the stretch run for Dallas. He allowed a pair of homers in each of his final 3 starts of the regular season! Also, the Nats right-hander compiled a 5.96 ERA over his final 4 starts of the regular season. The Dodgers will be hungry to bounce back after the Game 2 loss and I expect they will do just that against Scherzer and a sub-par Nationals bullpen that struggled in the regular season. However, the reason I am on the over in this one rather than Los Angeles is because I expect Hyun-Jin Ryu to struggle! On the road this season, Ryu was hit 39 points higher than at home. Also, in night starts Ryu was hit 58 points higher than in day starts. More of the same on tap here and I'll also take advantage of this total dropping from an 8.5 to an 8 as of early game day morning. 10* OVER the total in Washington |
|||||||
10-06-19 | Jets v. Islanders -129 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
NHL Network Rout - Rickenbach NHL Rotation #80 Sunday 10* Top Play New York Islanders Money Line (-) vs Winnipeg Jets @ 7:05 ET - Unlike the Jets, the Islanders actually play a little defense. However, it is the Islanders that sit winless on the season (they have played just 1 game) as they lost their season opener to the Capitals. As for Winnipeg, after allowing 6 goals in their season opener (and looking soft in their own zone in that one), the Jets proceeded to then fall into a 4-0 deficit at New Jersey in their next game. However, in one of the most miraculous comebacks you will ever see, the Jets took advantage of the Devils goalie leaving with an injury and overall questionable play by a NJ club that has some young players, and Winnipeg rallied for the win. The Jets rallied to tie it in regulation and then won in the shootout. I love backing the Islanders here off a tough, hard-nosed 2-1 loss and facing a Jets team that is very fortunate to be 1-1 on the season as they are allowing an average of 5 goals per game. The stingy Islanders aren't going to allow the Jets to move so freely in the offensive zone. At the same time, Winnipeg's struggles in their own zone continue and the result here is a dominating home win. Lay the very fair home ice price in this one. 10* NEW YORK ISLANDERS |
|||||||
10-06-19 | Packers +3.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 34-24 | Win | 100 | 10 h 60 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #473 Sunday 10* Top Play Green Bay Packers (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET - It was great to watch the over-rated Cowboys flounder when they finally faced a formidable opponent last week. The Saints didn't even have Drew Brees and yet still beat Dallas even though the game was very poorly officiated. As per usual the flags seemed heavy against New Orleans and light against the Cowboys and yet even that wasn't enough to rescue "America's Team". Now instead of facing a back-up QB the Cowboys face Aaron Rodgers and he was on fire for the Packers in their home loss to Philadelphia last week Thursday. Yes Green Bay fell short in that game but they did outgain the Eagles by a substantial margin. Lets not forget that Dallas' wins have come against the Dolphins and Redskins and Giants. The former two teams are still winless on the season and New York is fortunate to be 2-2. The Giants only beat TB because of a late missed chipshot FG by the Bucs and then the G-men got another win because of facing the floundering Redskins. The point is that Dallas still hasn't proven they can beat a good team this season and yet many are already pronouncing them as the NFC representative in the Super Bowl. As for the Packers, their wins including knocking off quality defenses in the Bears and the Vikings. Now the Cowboys face an angry GB team after a home loss on national TV in a game in which they were favored. Note that, even though this is a revenge game for Dallas, the fact is the Packers have had their number. Also, in Games 5 through 8 of a season, when the Packers have a winning record but are an underdog and are facing a team that also has a winning record and has revenge too, GB is actually a stellar 10-1 ATS in this situation! Additionally, note that the Cowboys are 0-11 ATS as a conference favorite of 3.5 points or less when they are facing a team with a winning percentage of .667 or greater. That system also fits here. The Packers got punched in the mouth by the Eagles ground game last week. They'll come ready to play this week after that debacle and there is no doubting the offense of the Pack will be the toughest offensive unit that Dallas will have faced this season! 10* GREEN BAY |
|||||||
10-06-19 | Braves v. Cardinals +111 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #958 Sunday 10* Top Play St Louis Cardinals Money Line (+) vs Atlanta Braves @ 4:10 ET - The Braves Mike Soroka has great numbers on the season and was particularly dominant on the road this year. However, the Atlanta right-hander was not a dominant (4.00 ERA) in September and also was hit hard in 2 of his last 3 road starts. In those 2 road outings Soroka allowed 15 hits in 11 innings of work. The Cardinals Adam Wainwright certainly has the post-season experience edge here and he went 9-4 with a 2.56 ERA at home this season. In his career playoff appearances at Busch Stadium, Wainwright has a 1.72 ERA and I expect another strong start from here. With the series tied up at 1 game apiece, the home team takes the key edge here in Game 3 of this series. 10* ST LOUIS |
|||||||
10-06-19 | Jaguars v. Panthers OVER 40 | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #457 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Carolina Panthers vs Jacksonville Jaguars @ 1 ET - Carolina is struggling with run defense this season and Jacksonville comes into this game as one of the top rushing offenses in the league after obliterating the Broncos with their ground attack last week. Both teams are off victories last week as the Panthers won at Houston and the Jaguars won at Denver. On offense, Carolina's spirit seems rejuvenated with Kyle Allen at QB. I like taking overs when a match-up involves a pair of teams off victories. That means team confidence is high and we've got a low total to work with here too. Jacksonville's pass defense has struggled at times this season and Allen and Company take advantage here. The over is a perfect 3-0 when the Panthers are off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as an underdog. Look for that streak of overs to move to 4 in a row with a higher scoring game than most are expecting here as the Panthers and Jaguars continue to thrive behind their back-up QBs. Allen gets it done again and the strong ground game of Jacksonville opens things up for Gardner Minshew to attack through the air as well. 10* OVER the total in Carolina |
|||||||
10-05-19 | Devils v. Sabres OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NHL Rotation #53 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Buffalo Sabres vs New Jersey Devils @ 7:05 ET - Big problems in New Jersey. Cory Schneider got hurt in last night's game. The #1 netminder for the Devils was relieved by a Scott Blackwood in a game that had been led by NJ by a 4-0 count. When Schneider came out of the game (4-2 at the time), the Devils fell apart. They ended up blowing a 4 goal lead in the game and losing in the shootout. Keep in mind, all of last season New Jersey never blew a 4-goal lead. That said, Schneider might not even travel to Buffalo for this game and Blackwood is likely to start in the 2nd game of a back to back. Also, the Devils may have to call up a back-up netminder from the minors. You can see why I am fully questioning the NJ situation in their own zone right now given all the question marks in goal and the shakiness in their own zone last night as they blew a late game 4-goal lead on home ice! As for the Sabres, they are off a huge upset win at Pittsburgh on Thursday. That was a low-scoring 3-1 win over the Penguins. As a result of that game totaling only 4 goals there has been a big push toward the under in this game. The total has gone from a 6.5 to a 5.5 and this is offering up great line value on the over in this match-up. Watch Buffalo be overconfident after knocking off the Pens and the Devils are extra hungry after letting last night's game slip away. As a result you should see a strong push from NJ in this one and they pot a few goals but the Sabres will most certainly end up responding in what is their home opener. As a result, plenty of goals here. 10* OVER the total in Buffalo |
|||||||
10-05-19 | Rice +10.5 v. UAB | Top | 20-35 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #359 Saturday 10* Rice Owls (+) @ UAB Blazers @ 7 ET - Rice is in their second season under head coach Mike Bloomgreen and they have turned into the type of scrappy underdog that no one wants to face. It is a slow process but he has made great strides this season thanks to it being his 2nd year with the program and the fact that the Owls returned players with a lot of playing experience from last season. Conversely, even though UAB is an 11-win team from last season, they lost as much (if not the most) playing experience from last season's team and this is out of 130 FBS teams in the nation. Of course this is why the Blazers (11 wins last season) are not an even heavier favorite against a Rice team that entered this season having only won a total of 3 games the past two seasons. I love looking for spots like this because the marketplace is simply behind the power curve in a situation like this and the Owls make for a dangerous dog in this spot. Rice does have a bye week on deck and the Blazers could be guilty of looking right past them and underestimating them. That is because UAB blasted the Owls 42-0 last year and that game was at Rice. Remember what I said about the coach and about experience above? The fact is that Bloomgreen and his players remember all too well the embarrassment of that ugly home shutout in his first season as head coach last year. It is time for payback at UAB this year. Now I don't necessarily expect Rice to win this game outright but I do expect there is a chance of that as I see this game being decided by the margin of a single score as it will be tight all the way. 3 of the Owls 5 losses this season have been decided by 8 or less points. That means we've got great value here with the Owls available as a double digit dog. By the way, Rice has battled hard with Army, Baylor, and Louisiana Tech this season. Even their game against Wake Forest was much more competitive than the final score indicated. The only game in which the Owls truly got blown out was against Texas and the Blazers most certainly are not the Longhorns! 10* RICE |
|||||||
10-05-19 | Twins v. Yankees OVER 9.5 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 105 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #951 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins @ 5:07 ET - The total may seem a little high but, in typical contrarian fashion, I am fading that perception and going with the over in this one. The teams combined for 14 runs in yesterday's game and now a pair of starting pitchers likely to struggle take to the mound Saturday. The Twins are making a very questionable decision in starting Randy Dobnak in this one. He is a rookie whom only has 5 MLB starts this season. Don't be surprised when the Yankees pound him. As for New York, they start Masahiro Tanaka and he got hit at a .301 clip in the month of July and a .314 clip in the month of September. The fact is that he has struggled often in the 2nd half of the season and I see no reason for expecting that to change here. In fact, Tanaka allowed a .508 slugging percentage against left-handed hitters this season and the Twins are loaded on that side of the plate. 10* OVER the total in New York Yankees |
|||||||
10-05-19 | Troy v. Missouri OVER 67 | Top | 10-42 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Rotation#339 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Missouri Tigers vs Troy Trojans @ 4 ET - There is some rain expected in the Columbia MO area today but nothing too excessive or too long in duration. That said, and with insignificant wind expected and mild temperatures, I look for this game to play out with a ton of scoring. Missouri is averaging 38.2 points per game and the Tigers are known for "keeping their foot on the gas" in games like this where they are a huge favorite and have a chance to put up big points. The key to the value with this total, even though it is a large one, is that Troy can score well too. In fact, the Trojans are averaging 40.7 points per game this season. Don't let the big number scare you here as Troy, in a road game where the total is between 63.5 and 70 points, is actually 8-3 to the over! Also, when facing SEC competition, the over is an incredible 14-2 in Trojans games! This is Missouri's first really big total of this season but the past two seasons the over went 6-2 when the total is between 63.5 and 70 in a Tigers game. Missouri has been rolling and that is also noteworthy here as the over is a 6-3 when the Tigers enter a game after 3 straight wins by a margin of 17 or more points. When Missouri faces a team that is not a Power-5 conference, under coach Barry Odom, they have shown a knack for blowing out teams big. With also coming off a bye week and having fresh legs here, the Tigers are going to score a ton but look for Troy stay close to the spread on this game which means we should see a ton of points in this one. 10* OVER the total in Missouri |
|||||||
10-05-19 | Calgary v. Montreal OVER 51 | Top | 17-21 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #683 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Montreal Alouettes vs Calgary Stampeders @ 4 ET - Great QB match-up here as Calgary's Bo Levi Mitchell is delivering a huge season and so too is Montreal's Vernon Adams and he returns this week after a one week suspension. Look for a huge game from Adams here but note that Mitchell and the Stamps are seeking revenge on the Als after an OT loss in Calgary in their most recent meeting. That game totaled 74 points. While this game won't get quite that many I do expect it to get well into the 50s. The weather will be beautiful in Montreal this afternoon with light winds and clear skies and cool autumn temperatures. Both teams can have the playbooks fully opened up for this one. Also, with Adams and Mitchell both out of action last week due to suspension and bye week, respectively, look for both of them to be very aggressive in attacking downfield in this game. I also, as a general rule, like overs in non-divisional match-ups in CFL action and this one "checks all the boxes" for me based on the reasons noted above. Look for a shootout in this one. 10* OVER the total in Montreal |
|||||||
10-04-19 | Central Florida v. Cincinnati +4 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #308 Friday 10* Top Play Cincinnati Bearcats (+) vs Central Florida Knights @ 8 ET - Last year both these teams were ranked and they matched up in a big game with ESPN Gameday cameras rolling late in the season and the Bearcats proceeded to get embarrassed in an ugly loss. Statistically the game was not so bad for Cincinnati but, on the scoreboard, they did lose by 25 points for a very ugly loss and now it is payback time. What most people are remembering about the Bearcats right now is how they got manhandled by Ohio State earlier this season. However, the Buckeyes have been demolishing anyone and everyone that has had the misfortune of having them on their schedule this season. The point is that UC's very ugly loss to Ohio State is actually helping to give us some value in this spot because this is still a Bearcats team that has gone 3-0 in its other games and allowed an average of only 13.7 points per game to teams not named the Buckeyes! As for UCF, they are 4-1 on the season but did lose their only true "test" of the season thus far and that was a road game at Pittsburgh. In my mind losing to the Panthers as a double digit favorite is even worse than the Bearcats getting blasted by one of the best teams in the nation. The Knights do have a bye on deck while the Cats do have Houston on deck. However, UC is actually a perfect 6-0 ATS the game before the Cougars the last 6 times. Payback time here. 10* CINCINNATI |
|||||||
10-04-19 | Edmonton v. Hamilton OVER 46.5 | Top | 12-42 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #681 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Hamilton Tiger-Cats vs Edmonton Eskimos @ 7 ET - Nice weather expected in Hamilton with light winds and no precipitation and a cool autumn evening on tap. The Tiger-Cats offense has continued to roll as they scored 33 points last week with QB Dane Evans throwing for over 350 yards and three scores! Edmonton also comes into this game riding the momentum of a win, though theirs was much more dramatic, as the Eskimos own on a late TD strike to get past Ottawa last week. The Ti-Cats won't sit back on their heels here and the way Evans and Company have been playing on offense will force the Eskimos to have to throw plenty to keep up in this game. I particularly like overs in a situation like this that involves an East-West match-up as well. The over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these teams. Last week Edmonton's game stayed under the total but the Eskimos entered that game on a 4-1 run to the over. Friday games for Edmonton are on an 11-4 run to the over and that includes 5-1 this season! Even without QB Trevor Harris, the Eskimos score plenty here and Hamilton rolls up big points too as the over improves to 6-2 in their past 8 October games. 10* OVER the total in Hamilton |
|||||||
10-04-19 | Blackhawks v. Flyers -114 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 22 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NHL Rotation #26 Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Flyers Money Line (-) vs Chicago Blackhawks in Prague, Czech Republic @ 2:05 ET - Season opener for both clubs take place across the pond. Both already played a preseason contest in Europe to gear up for this game. The Blackhawks are known for their top line but there is quite a drop off from the top line to the remainder of the units. The Flyers also have a strong top line but there is less drop off to the #2 line from the #1 line. Philadelphia also has a goalie edge with Hart over Crawford and/or Lehner in my opinion. Coaching edge also goes to the Flyers with a veteran bench boss in Alain Vigneault giving them the edge over Jeremey Colliton. Considering these factors as well as the low price available on the Flyers, I won't hesitate to grab Philly here. The Flyers have not only won each of the last 3 meetings between these clubs, they have won those games by a combined score of 10 to 2. Look for another big win here. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
|||||||
10-04-19 | Rays v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 101 | 6 h 57 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #926 Friday 10* Top Play Houston Astros -1.5 runs -100 vs Tampa Bay Rays @ 2:05 ET - The opportunity to have arguably the best home team in baseball with the best pitcher in baseball at even money is something I won't pass up on. Yes we have to lay 1.5 runs to get it but Houston, with Justin Verlander on the mound, should win this one in a rout. Keep in mind, the Rays Tyler Glasnow missed a lot of this season. While it is true that he has performed well since coming back, the fact is that Glasnow did not see a lot of action and particularly not against a very tough lineup like he will face here. Adding value for the Astros here is they did face him very early this season and they hit .316 against him in that 5-inning start. Note as well that Glasnow did have a strong season on the road this year but that was in limited appearances. That is noteworthy because Glasnow entered this season having gone 3-10 with a 5.85 ERA in road games in his career. Verlander went 2-0 against the Rays this season and he dominated them as Tampa Bay hit just .159 against him in those two outings. Verlander went 8-1 in his 11 day game starts this season. More domination here and, of course, I am not laying a -220 price on the money line but I'll gladly grab the even money price on the Astros run line for this one! 10* HOUSTON -1.5 runs |
|||||||
10-03-19 | Rams +1.5 v. Seahawks | Top | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #301 Thursday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Rams (+) @ Seattle Seahawks @ 8:20 ET - The Rams opened up as the favorites here. Unsurprisingly everyone jumped all over the Seahawks since they are also 3-1 like Los Angeles is and plus they have home field here and Seattle is a tough place to play. As per usual, I am fading the line move and I particularly love this play. The Seahawks are 3-1 but their lone loss came against the only tough team (Saints) that they faced. Seattle's 3 wins came against teams that, through 4 weeks of action, have totaled ONE win between the 3 of them. The fact is the only win among those teams came because they played each other (Cin @ Pit MNF). As for the Rams schedule, they have played 4 teams of which only 1 of the 4 has a losing record. Also, I love the fact that Los Angeles is off an embarrassing home loss to Tampa Bay. The Rams will be ready to respond here and, by the way, as tough as it is to play at Seattle, LA has won each of its past two visits here. Look for the Rams to improve to 8-3 ATS in their last 11 divisional games as they get a convincing road win here. 10* LOS ANGELES RAMS |
|||||||
10-03-19 | Temple v. East Carolina +12.5 | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #306 Thursday 10* Top Play East Carolina Pirates (+) vs Temple Owls @ 8 ET - I am aware of plenty of technical data that supports the road favorite Owls in this one. However, from situational standpoint, the Pirates are the play here. I know East Carolina has been a bad team for a number of consecutive seasons now but there have signs of life in East Carolina again thanks to a new head coach and wins in 3 of their last 4 games. I know the Pirates have not played a tough schedule but playing at NC State was certainly tougher than any game Temple has played this season. So, the point is, the Owls haven't exactly played a tough schedule either. Their only road game also saw them installed as a double digit favorite and Temple lost the game outright by double digits. Also, the Owls have a big game coming up hosting Memphis. It would be easy for Temple to look right past the Pirates and be looking ahead to the Tigers. Conversely, there is no doubt that East Carolina is fully focused on this game. It is a home game on a weeknight with the ESPN cameras rolling and the Pirates seek revenge for an embarrassing loss at Temple last season. I do expect the Owls to find a way to win this game but I expect the margin to be just a single score. That said, I am grabbing the big value with the double digit home dog in this one that is showing improvement this season. With each win, their confidence is growing right along with their belief in the system the new coach has put into place. They ride the momentum again here. 10* EAST CAROLINA |
|||||||
10-03-19 | Jets +111 v. Rangers | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NHL Rotation #13 Thursday 10* Top Play Winnipeg Jets Money Line (+) @ New York Rangers @ 7:05 ET - Sure these teams each made changes over the off-season but, even with all that, the Jets are projected to earn more points in the standings than the Rangers this season. Also, in terms of this non-conference match-up, lets talk about some home/road facts that also equate so solid value here. Only one team in the entire Eastern Conference had fewer home wins than the Rangers (18) last season. Also, only one team in the entire Western Conference had more road wins than the Jets (22) last season. That said, you have one of the top road teams going against one of the worst home teams and you're also getting plus money here. This is an opportunity I absolutely will take advantage of every time it comes up. In this case too I like the fact that New York goalie Henrik Lundqvist is coming off a tough season and I have the better overall team in this match-up. Winnipeg has won 37 of their past 65 non-conference games. The Rangers have lost 35 of their past 60 non-conference games. In terms of head to head match-ups, the Jets have won each of the past 3 meetings and have generated an average of 9 more shots on goal per game in their last 4 meetings. More of the same expected here. 10* WINNIPEG |
|||||||
10-03-19 | Cardinals v. Braves OVER 9 | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #915 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Atlanta Braves vs St Louis Cardinals @ 5 ET - Both wild card games remained under the total and, normally, when you think about post-season baseball, it is pitchers duels and unders that likely come to mind. However, Game 1 of this NL playoff series is a contrarian situation. First off the total has risen from an 8 to a 9 but don't let that scare you away. It is with good reason. For one thing, the weather is going to be summer-like in Atlanta today with temperatures in the mid-90s at first pitch. For another thing, both these lineups are loaded with solid hitters. Thirdly, and most important of course, is this starting pitching match-up. The Braves Dallas Keuchel is certainly a "big name" pitcher but he did not impress me down the stretch run. After his very successful July, note that he got hit at a .279 clip in August and a .270 clip in September. Those are not dominating numbers by any stretch of the imagination. As for the Cardinals Miles Mikolas, his 2019 season was not nearly as strong as his 2018 season. Additionally, he is known for struggling on the road. Mikolas went 4-8 away from home this season. In his 17 road starts this season, Mikolas compiled a 5.40 ERA and opponents hit nearly .300 against him. Look for more road struggles here against a potent Braves lineup. At the same time, Keuchel's recent mediocrity continues. 10* OVER the total in Atlanta |
|||||||
10-02-19 | Rays v. A's -132 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -132 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #914 Wednesday 10* Top Play Oakland A's Money Line (-) vs Tampa Bay Rays @ 8:10 ET - The Rays slugging percentage (.422) ranks them in the bottom 5 of the American League this season. The other teams in the bottom 5 are the Orioles, Angels, Tigers, and Royals. In other words, some pretty bad company to keep! Southpaw Sean Manaea gets the start for the Athletics here and Tampa Bay hasn't seen him since last season. Also, he has been red hot since he returned to the rotation this season. Manaea is 4-0 with a 1.21 ERA in his 5 starts this month and opponents are hitting just .160 against him. The Rays also start a strong hurler here as Charlie Morton get the call. However, his ERA (3.59) is a full run higher on the road compared to at home this season. Also, the Athletics have already faced him twice this season which also helps them. Oakland, as a home favorite of -110 or higher, is 94-45 including 39-18 this season. Tampa Bay finished the season with back to back ugly losses and they are 8-16 this season after a loss by a margin of 4 runs or more. This line opened up in the -150 range and is now in the -130 range and exceptional line value is being offered here with the small price now available on the home favorite. 10* OAKLAND |
|||||||
10-02-19 | Senators v. Maple Leafs -1.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
Puck Line Punisher - Rickenbach NHL Rotation #2 Wednesday 10* Top Play Toronto Maple Leafs -1.5 goals -110 vs Ottawa Senators @ 7:05 ET - Yes it was only preseason but a couple interesting facts from that. The Senators beat the Maple Leafs in both preseason meetings but that was early on. What I like about Toronto here in terms of momentum here is they finished the preseason very strong with 4 straight wins. Also, as a host, their only loss was to Ottawa as the Leafs then won 3 straight as a host and the victories came by a combined score of 11-0. The Sens are now coached by DJ Smith and he was an assistant coach under Toronto's head coach Mike Babcock. Rest assured the veteran coach doesn't want to lose the home opener to his understudy and the Maple Leafs have plenty of motivation here as the Senators are known for giving them problems. Ottawa is projected to be the worst team in the NHL this season while Toronto is a legitimate Stanley Cup contender. I do feel the Sens will be scrappy and will eventually be a little better than most are projecting. However, that is not going to happen early in the season as, with all the changes, Ottawa is going to suffer some breakdowns on defense and some poor positioning of players in certain situations too. This is going to lead to odd man rushes for the opponent and, of course, the Maple Leafs are absolutely stacked with high-skilled forwards. This is why the Leafs opened up as 3 to 1 favorites on the money line in this game. Where the value is, in my opinion, is with the puck line available at a pick'em price as a home rout ensues and the Maple Leafs win this game by 2 or more goals. TORONTO puck line -1.5 goals |
|||||||
10-01-19 | Brewers v. Nationals OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #911 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 8:05 ET - No matter whom starts this game I like the over. We have a total of 7.5 and yet the Brewers bullpen had multiple late season collapses when it had a chance to catch the Cardinals for the NL Central title but failed to do so. As for the Nationals bullpen they had a 5.66 ERA in the regular season and that ranks them dead last - #30 out of 30 - on the season. Why are the bullpens so significant here? Neither team is likely to have starters that pitch deep into this game. The Brewers Brandon Woodruff is only recently back from an oblique injury and is likely to only go 2 or 3 innings. The Nationals Max Scherzer compiled a 5.16 ERA in the month of September and was not the same pitcher we saw in the first half of the season since he returned from injury. Now, I also know that in a "win or the season over" game we could see each team use additional starting pitchers here instead of turning to bullpen arms. However, keep in mind those guys are use to being starters not relievers and that is generally not an ideal situation for them to step into. That said, with the potency of each of these lineups, a low total of 7.5 runs, and summer-like weather in DC today, I see great value with the over in this match-up. Over their final 9 games of the season Milwaukee scored an average of 6 runs per game. Over their final 8 games of the season (an 8-0 run for Washington) the Nationals scored an average of 6.8 runs per game. More of the same expected here. 10* OVER the total in Washington |
|||||||
09-30-19 | Bengals v. Steelers OVER 44.5 | Top | 3-27 | Loss | -114 | 24 h 15 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #277 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals @ 8:15 ET - Neither team can run the ball so they both turn to the pass here. Of course passing is your friend when you're playing on an over. In this case we have a manageable total and the weather also is favorable. The rain in Pittsburgh Monday is expected to be moving out by the evening and the winds will be light and the temperatures mild for this MNF match-up. Both teams have struggled defensively this season. Also, the Steelers have been particularly bad defending the pass early this season and the Bengals have been one of the top passing teams in the league thus far. In other words, Cincinnati matches up well in terms of a big game through the air Monday night but I also expect the Steelers to bounce back big here at home and have a huge game but they'll have to rely on the offense to get it done. Without a running game that means taking to the air and I like Pittsburgh to score plenty at Heinz Field even without Big Ben at the controls. The Bengals have had just 3 unders in their last 11 games against teams with a losing record. Also, off a loss by 6 or less points, Cincinnati has had just 2 unders in their past 7 games. Overall, when off a road loss, the Bengals are 7-4 to the over. As a home favorite, Pittsburgh is on a 11-4 run to the over their past 15 games in that role! Also, as a home favorite of 7 or less points, the Steelers are 9-2 to the over! When off an ATS cover (but SU loss) in a road game, Pittsburgh is 6-2 to the over. That system fits here after the Steelers lost at San Francisco last week but got the ATS cover. Two desperate 0-3 teams and weak defenses lead to an entertaining game in this one. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh |