Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-12-19 | Cavs v. 76ers UNDER 223.5 | Top | 99-106 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Cavs-76ers The Cavs turned in a real stunner last night as they beat the Raptors 126-101. But that was in Cleveland. Tonight they travel to Philly to face a Sixers team that is not only very good at home, but also has gone Under in seven straight contests. In their last game, which was at home, Philly gave up only 89 points. Even though they just scored 126 points, Cleveland is not a real offensive threat. They are last in the Eastern Conference in points per game. Now defensively, there are concerns with this Cavaliers team. In their previous road game, they let the Heat shoot 57% and scored 126 points. But the Sixers have been held to an average of just 107 points their last three contests and have shot poorly in each of last two. Joel Embiid is back and did have 33 points in his return Sunday. But no one else could really make a shot. Look for the Sixers' Under streak to continue. Play UNDER Cleveland-Philadelphia AAA |
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03-12-19 | Capitals v. Penguins -131 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 9* play on PITTSBURGH This is a massive game for the Penguins. We think its crucial for them to finish in the top three in the Metropolitan and thus avoid either division winner in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Right now, they are tied for third place with Carolina at 83 points. Washington leads the division with 89 points and has won its last seven games. But they've gotten to play Ottawa, Philadelphia, New Jersey and the Rangers twice during the win streak, so really all they've done is take advantage of a favorable schedule. Pittsburgh just snapped Boston's 19-game point streak with a 4-2 win Sunday. They have gone 9-3-2 the last 14 games themselves with 27 goals scored in the last eight games. Each side figures to start its top goaltender in this one and both Matt Murray and Braden Holtby have been exceptional of late. With Pittsburgh 36-15 their last 51 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150 though, they get the nod tonight on home ice. Play on PITTSBURGH AAA |
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03-12-19 | Pittsburgh -1 v. Boston College | Top | 80-70 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on PITT Pitt had a lousy year in the ACC, but at least the regular season ended on a high note as they beat Notre Dame 56-53 Saturday. The Panthers still enter the ACC Tournament as the lowest possible seed (14th), but they are favored to win their first game. Having taken this team Saturday, I'll back them again here as I don't think they're nearly as bad as their record. B.C. comes into the ACC Tourney having lost three in a row and they were terrible in a 73-47 home loss to N.C. State on Saturday. The Eagles did win a pair of games in last year's ACC Tourney, but we don't see that happening again. They did beat Pitt in the only regular season meeting, 66-57, but that was in Chesnut Hill. The Panthers are the better three-point shooting team here. Look for that to be the difference tonight. Play on PITTSBURGH AAA |
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03-11-19 | Ohio +4 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 61-80 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OHIO Ohio did not have a particularly good regular season, but it ended on a high note with the Bobcats covering the spread in the last five games. They won three of them straight up and the two losses were by a combined eight points. So, for us, they're an attractive bet tonight getting points against Northern Illinois. This is a home game for NIU but they've lost 7 of 10 and none of the three wins were by more than seven points. The last two were both on the road and were upsets. The last three times the Huskies have been favored, they lost outright all three times. Now the last instance of them covering as chalk was here at home against Ohio. But the Bobcats actually led that game with seven minutes to go. They also lost to NIU in Athens, so it's a big-time revenge factor here. With both teams having been involved in so many close games this season, it seems only logical to side with the team getting points. There's just not much difference between the two sides and Ohio has played better of late. Northern Illinois is 0-5 ATS its last five home games. Play on OHIO AAA |
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03-11-19 | Thunder v. Jazz UNDER 227 | Top | 98-89 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* UNDER play on Thunder-Jazz The last time we saw these two matchup, it was a wild affair that went into double overtime. The Thunder won 148-147, which was the third time they've beaten the Jazz this year in as many chances. Two of the three games have been pretty high scoring, but not the one that was played here in Utah. That was a 107-106 final score and we think tonight's game follow a similar trajectory as you've got two teams in the top five of the league in defensive efficiency. OKC is 6-2 Under its last eight games and one of the two Overs was an overtime win at Portland. The Jazz just got held to 104 points by Memphis here at home in their last game. That was an Over because the total was low. It was also just the second time in six games Utah went Over. The total is substantially higher for this game and the Thunder are 12-3 Under in games where they are the underdog this season. Play UNDER Oklahoma City-Utah AAA |
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03-11-19 | Coyotes v. Blackhawks UNDER 6.5 | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER Arizona-Chicago We finally saw a Blackhawks game go Under the total as they beat Dallas 2-1 on Saturday. The Under on that game was our *10* NHL Total of the Month. We went Under even though Chicago was 22-1-1 Over its previous 24 games! Such a streak is uncommon (for any sport) and suffice to say we'll consistently be getting high totals on every Blackhawks game for awhile now, which makes taking the Under seem like a logical move. Now Dallas was an ideal opponent for that Over streak to come to a halt. But Arizona has a similar "makeup." The Coyotes are 28th in the league in scoring, but also tied for 6th in goals allowed. They have not given up more than three goals in nine straight games and they've allowed just eight total in the past five games. Arizona is the only team in the league besides Dallas that is scoring and allowing less than 2.75 goals per game. Chicago is still last in the league in goals allowed, but that figures to change now that Corey Crawford has returning from a lengthy absence (due to a concussion). Crawford stopped 26 of 27 shots vs. the Stars. The only other time these teams met this year, the final score was 4-1 (Arizona won). Play UNDER Arizona-Chicago AAA |
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03-11-19 | Pistons +2 v. Nets | Top | 75-103 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on DETROIT Both of these teams are trying to get into the playoffs, which (even in the Eastern Conference) would be considered a significant achievement. The Pistons have made the playoffs only once (2016) in the last decade and have not won a playoff series since their run of six straight Eastern Conference Finals, which ended in '08. The Nets have missed the playoffs 8 of the last 11 years including each of the last three. So the fact both might make it makes this an important game. Detroit is simply playing better right now. Their 131-108 win over the Bulls yesterday puts them an impressive 5-0 SU/ATS in March and 12-2 SU (11-3 ATS) their last 14 games overall. Brooklyn has won three straight, but had won only 5 of its previous 15 games before that. They are also 1-4 ATS so far this month. You might think that the Pistons are at a bit of a disadvantage playing in the second game of a back to back, but it was an early game Sunday and an easy victory. The Pistons are 6-3 ATS playing without rest anyway and averaging 123 PPG in March on 52.5% shooting. They are a tough team to beat right now. Play on DETROIT AAA |
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03-10-19 | Rockets v. Mavs UNDER 223 | Top | 94-93 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER Rockets-Mavs Houston avoided a major scare with X-rays coming back negative on James Harden's wrist. The NBA's leading scorer (36.6 PPG) injured that wrist in Friday's win over the 76ers. Harden will play today, but will he be as effective as usual? Perhaps not. The Rockets are playing well right now. They have the longest active win streak in the league at seven straight. Back to back strong defensive efforts have really helped as they held Toronto to 95 points and Philly to 91. After holding those teams in check, stopping Dallas shouldn't be too tall an order. The Mavericks have lost 9 of 10. But they are more formidable at home where their SU record for the year is 21-11. So expect this to be a tougher game than expected for the Rockets, especially with Harden playing with the injured wrist. It should be a pretty low scoring game too, which is where we're willing to put our money. Six of Houston's last eight games have gone Under anyway. They are only shooting 43.2% in division games this season. Dallas had two sub-90 point efforts recently. In the last seven meetings vs. Houston, the Mavs have scored more than 107 points just once. Play UNDER Houston-Dallas AAA |
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03-10-19 | Delaware v. William & Mary -4.5 | Top | 85-79 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on WILLIAM & MARY This is one of four quarterfinal matchups today in the Colonial Athletic Association. William & Mary is the 4-seed while Delaware is the 5, but the teams really aren't as close as those seedings suggest, nor are they as close as the oddsmakers seem to think they are. William & Mary finished two games up in the standings. They did lose to Delaware early in the year, by just two points on the road. But they crushed them in the rematch, at home, winning by 21 points. William & Mary ended the regular season on a five-game SU win streak, covering the spread in four of those games. Delaware ended with four straight losses - both SU and ATS - and is 1-9-1 ATS its last 11 games overall (3-8 SU). Pay little mind to the fact they beat W&M early in the season as the Tribe actually went off as the slight favorite in that game and it was decided by two points. W&M holds a 7-1 record the last eight meetings and led by seven at halftime in that loss. Delaware just got beat by double digits in back to back home games to end the regular season, by the top two teams in the Colonial. Even their modest 16-15 record is a bit misleading when you consider the won FOUR overtime games this year (didn't lose any), three of them double OT games! Play on WILLIAM & MARY AAA |
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03-10-19 | Illinois v. Penn State OVER 149 | Top | 56-72 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 1 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on OVER Illinois/Penn State Penn State is a team that lost its first nine conference games, but that was a gross misrepresentation of where the Nittany Lions were really at. They've since won six of nine in the Big 10, also going 8-0-1 ATS. The push came earlier this week in a one-point victory over Rutgers, a game where they led by 18 at halftime. In the final home game of the year, Penn State hosts an Illinois team that's had more lows than highs in 2019. The Illini have dropped four of their last five, having just given up 92 points in a loss to Indiana on Thursday. Expect plenty of points here as well. Over the last four games, the Illini are allowing an average of 81 PPG. Opponents are shooting almost 50% against them for the year, when they're on the road, including 37.5% from three-point range. Penn State actually allows a slightly higher three-point shooting percentage here at home. That's a big reason why the Over is 4-0 the last four games at State College. The Over is also 6-2 in Penn State's last eight Big 10 games. Play OVER Illinois-Penn State AAA |
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03-10-19 | Rutgers v. Indiana UNDER 133.5 | Top | 73-89 | Loss | -109 | 4 h 53 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Rutgers-Indiana You may be surprised to learn that Rutgers is a pretty good team at the defensive end of the floor, ranking 36th nationally in defensive efficiency. Indiana ranks even higher at 27th. Each team's offensive efficiency rating is much lower with Rutgers being at 150. So even though IU just dropped 92 on the road in its last game, our expectations are for a pretty low scoring game today in Bloomington. Outside of a game against Iowa (who is maybe the Big 10's worst defensive team), Rutgers has not gone over 70 points in any of its last six games. Indiana's had some real "stinkers" on offense too, particularly at home where they've scored 63 points or less three times in the last four games. These teams met back in January and the final score was 66-58 Rutgers. I don't think the rematch will be much more high scoring and that means the Under is in play here. The Hoosiers shot better than 55% in their last game, a number they won't match here. Nor will they allow 50% shooting to Rutgers, a number their last two opponents have both reached. Play UNDER Rutgers-Indiana AAA |
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03-10-19 | Houston v. Cincinnati UNDER 129 | Top | 85-69 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 46 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Houston-Cincinnati This figures to be a bit of a "rock fight" with the two top teams in the American facing off to determine who gets the regular season title. Houston has been in front most of the year, but did suffer a home loss to UCF last Saturday. They bounced back by beating SMU 90-79. Cincinnati was even with UH at two conference losses going into Thursday, but then they too lost to UCF, 58-55. The Bearcats have two streaks going on heading into today's regular season finale. They have lost seven straight ATS and the Under is 5-0 the L5 games. Of the two streaks, we believe the latter is more likely to continue here. Houston is a top 20 defensive team in the country, just like Cincinnati is. These teams played last month and the final score was 66-58 in favor of UH. The Cougars have gone Under in five of their last seven games, the only exceptions being a couple of 90+ point efforts against conference weaklings. They won't get anywhere close to that many points today in what figures to be another slugfest with so much on the line. Play UNDER Houston-Cincinnati AAA |
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03-09-19 | Blackhawks v. Stars UNDER 7 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER Chicago-Dallas The streak that the Blackhawks are on is something that we're not sure we have ever seen. The Over is 22-1-1 in the team's past 24 games! The one Under took place back on January 22nd, against the Islanders, which was the final game before the All Star Break! Since then it's been 15 Overs and one push. That one push came last Sunday vs. San Jose, a 5-2 loss as oddsmakers have started to adjust with 7.0 goal totals. It still didn't matter Thursday when they beat Buffalo 5-4, but it should here as they face a Dallas team that has delivered consecutive shutout victories and has allowed the third fewest goals in the league this season. Also, the Stars rank 29th in goals scored per game (third worst). So if there was ever an opponent to halt the Blackhawks' Over streak, it would be this one. The Under has cashed in roughly two-thirds of Dallas' games this year. Both games vs. Chicago did go Over, but this one won't as the Blackhawks will go Under for the 1st time since All Star Weekend! Play UNDER Chicago-Dallas AAA |
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03-09-19 | Nets v. Hawks OVER 235 | Top | 114-112 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Brooklyn-Atlanta The scoreboard operator best pay attention in this one because plenty of points are set to be scored as the Nets take on the Hawks in Atlanta. Each team comes in well rested, having been off the last two days. Brooklyn has seen each of its last three games stay Under, but one of them saw them score 127 points (while holding Dallas to 88). There was also another game where they only scored 88 points. Such a point total simply isn't going to happen here for either side. Atlanta had gone Over in four straight before running into San Antonio Wednesday night and losing 111-104. The Nets have beaten the Hawks four straight, including a pair of game this season where they've averaged 130 points. The Over is 10-4 in Brooklyn's last 14 games. This might seem like a ridiculously high total to try and go Over, but it's that high for a reason. Play OVER Brooklyn-Atlanta AAA |
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03-09-19 | Duke v. North Carolina -3.5 | Top | 70-79 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on UNC The first time these teams played UNC caught an all-time lucky break as Zion Williamson got injured in the first minute of the game. The Tar Heels took advantage of a shell-shocked Duke team, beating them 88-72 in Cameron. Though the game was on the road, it's almost unfathomable that UNC was a 10-point underdog for that contest. Now they are the higher ranked team and favorite, poised to sweep the season series from their hated rival. Though there's been some talk of Williamson returning here, it sounds as if that's highly unlikely and even if he did, who knows how he could perform in such a hostile situation. UNC has won six straight and 13 of its last 14 and I don't see them dropping their Chapel Hill finale. Since the Williamson injury, Duke lost at Virginia Tech and then was very fortunate to escape with a one-point victory earlier this week against Wake Forest, a game they were expected to win by 24. Play on NORTH CAROLINA AAA |
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03-09-19 | Oklahoma v. Kansas State -6.5 | Top | 53-68 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on KANSAS STATE For the 1st time in 15 years, Kansas will not win the Big 12 regular season title. That much we know. But who will supplant the Jayhawks is still up for grabs. It will either be Texas Tech or Kansas State. The two come into Saturday tied with matching 13-4 conference records. Unlike Texas Tech, Kansas State gets to play at home. They host Oklahoma, whom the 18th ranked Wildcats easily downed earlier this year in Norman, 74-61 as five-point underdogs. Ironically, it was OU that came into that first meeting ranked in the top 20 (Wildcats were unranked). Something Kansas State has in common with Texas Tech is they are one of the top defensive teams in the country. The Wildcats allow 59.3 PPG, 4th fewest in the entire nation (1 PPG more than TT). Oklahoma has faded badly since losing that first matchup with Kansas State. The Sooners are 6-8 SU the last 14 games and that's even with back to back wins to open March. After upsetting Kansas earlier in the week, it would only be natural for the Sooners to have a letdown Saturday in Manhattan. Kansas State is 13-2 in the Octagon of Doom this year. Play on KANSAS STATE AAA |
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03-09-19 | Texas Tech -2 v. Iowa State | Top | 80-73 | Win | 100 | 14 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on TEXAS TECH For the 1st time in 15 years, Kansas will not win the Big 12 regular season title. That much we know. But who will supplant the Jayhawks is still up for grabs. It will either be Texas Tech or Kansas State. The two come into Saturday tied with matching 13-4 conference records. For Texas Tech to win at least a share of the title, they'll need to win in Ames against Iowa State. We like their chances. The Red Raiders are #1 in the country in defensive efficiency, making them a dangerous opponent come NCAA Tournament time. They just ripped Texas 70-51, holding the Longhorns under 30% shooting for the game, for their eighth straight win. Meanwhile, Iowa State is limping towards the finish. The Cyclones have lost four of their last five games. While just one of those four losses transpired here at home, their last two defensive efforts leave a lot to be desired. They gave up 86 points to Texas and 90 to last place West Virginia. Defense travels, thus Texas Tech can be counted on today. Play on TEXAS TECH AAA |
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03-09-19 | Notre Dame v. Pittsburgh -2 | Top | 53-56 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on PITTSBURGH Something will have to give here when Pittsburgh hosts Notre Dame in the final regular season game for both ACC teams. Pitt is 2-15 in conference play and has lost 13 in a row. They are in last place. Just one game ahead is Notre Dame, who has lost six straight. Can you believe Pitt actually holds early season wins over Louisville and NC State? There are many reasons why the Panthers have hit the skids, but the bottom line is they've lost a lot of close games as well. Believe it or not, this is actually an improvement from last year when they didn't win a single ACC game. As the home team Saturday, we expected them to have more motivation. Ending this losing streak in the final home game is a big deal. As poorly as Pitt has shot the basketball, Notre Dame has shockingly been worse at only 37.4% in ACC play. The Fighting Irish have just two wins outside of South Bend all season. A two-point loss to Clemson in their own home finale (Wednesday) could have a demoralizing effect. Play on PITTSBURGH AAA |
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03-08-19 | Nuggets v. Warriors OVER 233 | Top | 105-122 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER Denver-Golden State It's a Western Conference showdown between the top two teams and each has something to prove. The last time these teams played, Denver lost by 31 at home. Golden State has not played well recently, losing three of four and they've been even worse ATS at 1-10 the last 11 games. Also of interest is that Denver comes into tonight riding a seven-game Under streak. The Warriors are 5-1 Under in their last six games. We typically associate these teams with high-scoring games and for good reason. Golden State remains the top offensive force in the league while Denver isn't too far behind. Considering how many points these teams combined for the last time they played (253), going Over here seems like the right call. Play OVER Denver-Golden State AAA |
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03-08-19 | Mavs v. Magic -7 | Top | 106-111 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on ORLANDO Orlando is trying to make the playoffs in the Eastern Conference, which is an achievable goal as they are just one game back of eighth place Miami. If they were to accomplish the goal, it would be the first time in the playoffs for the Magic since the Dwight Howard era, which ended back in 2012. That's a serious drought, so while we can talk about how depth shy the East is this year, that hardly matters to the Magic. Dallas is not going to make the playoffs out West and if there was any thought that they might make a late run, that's been killed by them winning just once in the last nine games. Recently, they've taken some very terrible losses, one by 30 at home to Memphis and another by 39 at Brooklyn. The Mavs only have six road wins all year, which is tied for the second fewest in the league. Orlando has dropped two in a row, but both games were on the road. Tonight is their only home game for the first 13 days of March, so they should play well. Don't be afraid to lay the points as they are in a good spot here. Play on ORLANDO AAA |
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03-08-19 | Eastern Michigan v. Toledo -9 | Top | 58-64 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on TOLEDO We used Toledo earlier in the week and it was a success with them beating Western Michigan 76-57. That was the fourth win in a row for the Rockets, who have already clinched the MAC West and thus will be the #2 seed (behind Buffalo) in their conference tournament. But before they get to Cleveland, it's time to take care of a little business with Eastern Michigan in the final regular season game of the year. The Rockets are playing with legit revenge here as they lost up in Ypsilanti last month 76-69 as four-point favorites. They haven't lost since. We're getting a good price on them for the rematch. Toledo is a very good home team as is evident by their 13-2 SU record and they average 78.1 points per game while only giving up 62.1. For all the reasons we took them against Western Michigan, we like them here as well. Then there is the revenge angle coupled with it being Senior Night, which only sweetens the deal. Play on TOLEDO AAA |
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03-07-19 | Blues v. Kings UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 9* play on UNDER Blues-Kings The Blues needed five goals to get by Anaheim last night, but shouldn't need nearly that many to get the win tonight in Los Angeles. The Kings have been downright brutal of late, losing 10 of their last 11 games, and they rank second from the bottom league-wide in number of goals scored. Anaheim is the only team that's scored fewer and, yes, the Blues just gave up four goals to them yesterday. But even without rest, this shapes up to be an easier defensive assignment for the Blues, who are 6-3 Under this season when playing in the second night of back to back games. The Under is 7-3-1 in St. Louis' last 11 games overall and we can't envision a second straight high scoring game vs. what is typically a low-scoring opponent. Look for the Blues to get back on track defensively here and they won't be scoring nearly as much as they did last night. Play UNDER St. Louis-Los Angeles AAA |
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03-07-19 | Pacific +1.5 v. Pepperdine | Top | 53-61 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on PACIFIC In what is quite the interesting scenario, Pacific will play Pepperdine for a second time in less than a week. These WCC rivals ended the regular season against one another with Pacific winning 73-72 on a late three-pointer. The win, which came on the road, snapped a six-game losing streak for Pacific. Now the Tigers get to face the Waves at a neutral setting (Las Vegas), looking to sweep the season series. Pacific also beat Pepperdine earlier in the year, at home, 66-59. Pepperdine has won just one of its last five games and two out of its last eight. Their last win came against last place Portland (who is HORRIBLE) and the other win was by just three points over San Diego. The third time will NOT be the charm tonight for Pepperdine, who simply does not win away from home very often. Pacific hasn't just had Pepperdine's number this year, they've won and covered five straight times at the Waves' expense. Play on PACIFIC AAA |
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03-07-19 | Pacers v. Bucks UNDER 221.5 | Top | 98-117 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER Pacers-Bucks In the league's defensive efficiency ratings, these are the two top teams, which helps explain why both have been so successful this season. Of course, Milwaukee is also quite prolfic at the offensive end as well, leading the Eastern Conference in points per game at 117.3. But Indiana tops the NBA in scoring defense (103.7 PPG allowed) and thus should keep Giannis and co. in relative check. The previous two times these teams played, the games both stayed Under. The total here is higher than either of those games. The Bucks have lost two in a row for the first time all season, so we suspect they'll be looking to turn up the defensive intensity tonight. Both losses saw them blow leads of 16 points or more. The Pacers don't have leading scorer Victor Oladipo anymore and backup forward Domantas Sabonis is also out. We just won with the Under in Indiana's last game as they held Chicago to only 95 points. Conference games have seen both teams go Under with great regularity of late. Milwaukee is 5-0 Under its last five conference games while Indiana is 10-3 its last 13. Play UNDER Indiana-Milwaukee AAA |
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03-07-19 | UL - Lafayette v. Arkansas-Little Rock | Top | 77-72 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on UL LAFAYETTE This is another Sun Belt game, one involving the team that was just upset by Appalachian State. That result should leave Louisiana plenty motivated going into this final week of the regular season. Losing at home is never any fun, but especially on Senior Day, which is what happened to the Ragin Cajuns over the weekend due to a very poor defensive effort (gave up 90 points). We can't see them losing for a second straight time to an inferior opponent. They beat Little Rock by 14 on the road back in January. At the time, Louisiana's SU record was 10-5. They've been a .500 team since, but that's still better than Little Rock, who has dropped four straight coming into tonight. The Trojans had to play their last three games all on the road. Maybe they've been more competitive than the 5-11 conference record shows, but I don't think they can be trusted to win a game straight up. Not when they lost by double digits to the same team the first time around. Play on UL LAFAYETTE AAA |
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03-07-19 | Troy State +8 v. Appalachian State | Top | 64-72 | Push | 0 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on TROY Last place Troy has had little to celebrate in the Sun Belt as their record is 4-12 and they come into the final week having lost five in a row and 9 of the last 10 games. But tonight the Trojans face one of the teams they have beaten already and they'll do so while getting a pretty generous number. Appalachian State is only a game ahead of Troy in the standings, so the latter has a chance to get out of the basement with a win tonight. With App State both off a rare win and laying points, I see them as being particularly vulnerable tonight. The Mountaineers just beat Louisiana 90-80 over the weekend, thus sweeping the season series from the Ragin Cajuns. But here we find them as a favorite, a role they have only been in six times all season and gone 2-4 ATS. This will be the most points ASU has had to lay in any Sun Belt game. Go with the underdog in a clear letdown spot for the favorite. App State is just 7-27 ATS following a game where they covered the spread. Play on TROY AAA |
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03-06-19 | Oregon -7 v. Washington State | Top | 72-61 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OREGON Oregon has simply rolled to victory in each of its last two games, winning by 28 and 26 points. They beat the two Arizona schools, both at home, and a 73-47 dismantling of Arizona over the weekend was most impressive. They do have to travel twice in the final week of the regular season, up to Washington, but winning in Pullman should not be much of a problem (the finale @ Washington will be much tougher). Waiting here for the Ducks is a dreadful Washington State squad that has won just 4 of its 16 Pac 12 games. Three straight losses probably haven't done wonders for the Cougars' confidence coming into the final week and they already lost to Oregon by 20 earlier in the year. Wazzu may not be as bad at home as they are on the road, but they are bad regardless and we don't see this being a very competitive game. Play on OREGON AAA |
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03-06-19 | Celtics v. Kings +1.5 | Top | 111-109 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on SACRAMENTO Expect the narrative of "BOSTON IS BACK" to start flying after the Celtics just handed Golden State its worst home loss EVER (33 points) under Steve Kerr. But with a quick turnaround, against a Sacramento team that has been a major surprised, the good times may not last long. Let's not forget the Celtics had lost five of six since the All Star Break prior to last night's shocking triumph out in Oakland. The Kings have the league's 2nd best ATS record at 37-26 and that includes a 22-11 mark at home. The fact that they're no longer favored (line jumped the fence after Boston won last night) is a little disappointing based on the fact they are 15-2 SU/13-4 ATS as chalk. The Kings did a good job defensively in their last game. Granted, it was the Knicks, but Boston is only 3-7 ATS when playing the second night of a back to back and they average just 105 PPG. Play on SACRAMENTO AAA |
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03-06-19 | Maple Leafs -185 v. Canucks | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -185 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 6* play on TORONTO Toronto just put up six goals in a dominant victory over Calgary Monday night. So they should have little difficulty winning at Vancouver tonight. Five of the Maple Leafs last six games have seen them score at least five goals. All five games were wins. Vancouver's last seven games have brought six defeats and the only win was against Anaheim. The Canucks were just shutout in their last game, 3-0 at Vegas, and simply lack the offensive firepower to compete here. That was the ninth time they've been shutout this season and they were outshot 48-19. Toronto has the league's second best scoring differential. They are a really good team, probably better than its record. Vancouver is not a good team and has already been crushed by the Leafs one time this season, 5-0 out in Toronto. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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03-06-19 | 76ers v. Bulls +5.5 | Top | 107-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on CHICAGO This is the second night of a back to back for both teams. Philly won last night, beating Orlando 114-106, while Chicago lost 105-96 to Indiana. Those results are pretty "par for the course" for the respective seasons the two teams are having, but we like the Bulls getting points at home tonight. The 76ers are nowhere near as strong on the road (16-14) as they are at home (25-9) and laying points on the road can certainly be tricky. Joel Embiid is still absent from the Philly lineup, leaving them very thin in the frontcourt. They were lucky to have a strong 1st half last night vs. Orlando (scored 70 pts) as they only scored 44 in the 2nd half. Meanwhile, Chicago had the lead with just over seven minutes to go last night in Indiana before wilting down the stretch. They'd also won five of their previous seven games. An upset here is a real possibility. Play on CHICAGO AAA |
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03-06-19 | Wolves v. Pistons -5.5 | Top | 114-131 | Win | 101 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on DETROIT Though they did beat Oklahoma City last night, this is going to be a really tough spot for Minnesota here. That was a home game vs. the Thunder and now it's back on the road where they've lost three in a row and are just 9-24 this season. Detroit has really started to gain some steam, winning 9 of its last 11, and both losses took place on the road. All things considered, laying a short number like this seems to be a "no-brainer." The Pistons have had two days off to prepare and just beat the Raptors. Making that win even more impressive is the fact they were playing the second night of a back to back. The Timberwolves are just 2-7 SU in that scenario this season with all seven losses taking place out on the road. The T'wolves are terrible defensively and the Pistons have not lost a home game since Feb 2. This is a big game for Detroit as a win gets them above .500 for the first time since Dec 19. Play on DETROIT AAA |
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03-06-19 | Youngstown State v. Oakland -8 | Top | 84-88 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on OAKLAND Quarterfinal action in the Horizon League continues tonight with the 3 seed (Oakland) hosting the 6 seed (Youngstown State). The winner here moves on to play the winner of Northern Kentucky vs. Detroit next Monday. While it might seem like a bad idea to lay points in a matchup of teams whose two regular season meetings were decided by a total of three points, that's precisely what we'll do here. Oakland ended the regular season quite well, winning its last four games - all by double digit margins (4-0 ATS). YSU has lost three in a row, including one at home to Cleveland State, who didn't even qualify for the conference tournament. Oakland scores a lot when it plays at home (81.5 PPG) and Youngstown State doesn't score much when it travels (69.9 PPG). Look for the favorite to easily cover the spread in this one. Play on OAKLAND AAA |
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03-05-19 | East Carolina v. Wichita State -14.5 | Top | 55-72 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on WICHITA STATE Wichita State might only be middle of the pack in the American, but they've been a lot better down the home stretch, going 7-2 straight up and against the spread their last nine games. They just won by 12 at SMU on Sunday, as a 3.5-point underdog, and now get one of the conference's worst teams for the final home game of the year. In most leagues, East Carolina would be the worst team, but the American happens to have Tulane, whose ineptitude defies description. Wichita State already beat ECU by 16 on the road, a game which came during this 7-2 run. East Carolina has just one road win all year and it came against ... you guessed it, Tulane. They give almost 80 PPG in road games, which is a problem facing a Wichita State team that's been tightening the screws defensively recently. The Shockers have held five of the last seven opponents below 37% shooting. ECU has allowed 190 points the last two games on almost 60% shooting. Play WICHITA STATE AAA |
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03-05-19 | Rockets +3.5 v. Raptors | Top | 107-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on HOUSTON We won by taking the Rockets Sunday in Boston and now they head up to Canada to face another Eastern Conference power, that obviously being the Raptors. Boston's recent struggles made them an easy fade against a Houston squad that has clearly found its stride during a five game win streak. Beating a better Toronto team may prove more difficult, but given the ease with which the Rockets downed the Celtics (won by 11 and it wasn't even really that close), simply winning here would not be that "big of a deal." The Rockets are now 19-9 SU when James Harden, Chris Paul and Clint Capella are all in the starting lineup. That threesome being on the floor together was crucial in the Rockets finishing last season with the best record in the regular season. Toronto just lost to Detroit over the weekend. There was no Kawhi Leonard in that game, but him being back tonight won't be enough to get by this red hot Houston team. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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03-05-19 | Panthers v. Penguins OVER 6.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -138 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* Play OVER Panthers-Penguins We see a high scoring game transpiring tonight in Pittsburgh. Florida comes to the Steel City on a four-game losing streak. They've given up 17 goals in those four losses. The last game was "only" a 3-2 loss, but to Ottawa, who is very bad. Before that, the Over was 7-0-1 in the Panthers last eight games. Pittsburgh is one of the highest scoring teams in the league and won't have much difficulty scoring tonight. They lit the lamp five times in a key win over Montreal Saturday. But that was after giving up four goals in three of their previous four games. Since February 17th, Florida has scored 36 goals in nine games and that loss to Ottawa was the only time they didn't score at least three. The Penguins have scored at least three goals in 10 of their last 11 games. Over is 16-9 when the Pens scored four or more times in their last game. Play OVER Panthers-Penguins AAA |
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03-05-19 | Bulls v. Pacers UNDER 218.5 | Top | 96-105 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on UNDER Bulls-Pacers It's not that surprising that Chicago is near the bottom of the league in most key offensive categories. After all, they have one of the worst records in the league. Only two teams average fewer points per game and that's even after the Bulls wild 168-161 win over Atlanta that went four overtimes last Friday. They scored 118 more points in a rematch with the Hawks Sunday, at home, but this time lost by five points. Do not look for them to score anywhere near those kind of numbers tonight as they face one of the better defensive teams in the league. While Indiana still ranks 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency, they are without their leading scorer (Victor Oladipo) and have topped 112 points just twice in the last seven games. This looks like a pretty clear Under to me as the last time these teams met, the total was set at just 201 points. Play UNDER Bulls-Pacers AAA |
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03-05-19 | Western Michigan v. Toledo -15.5 | Top | 57-76 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on TOLEDO Toledo is already assured of winning the MAC West as they swept the season series from Central Michigan, whom they just beat Saturday. But the Rockets have a real chance to enter the conference tourney with some serious momentum as they have what appear to be - on paper - two very winnable home games in the final week of the regular season. Up first is a Western Michigan team they already beat on the road back in January. That was an eight-point win as six-point favorites, but they'll need a far greater margin of victory to cover the spread tonight. Western Michigan has covered four in a row, including three straight losses by five points or less. Our guess is they won't have much left in the tank after a two-point loss to Ball State over the weekend. Friday's home finale vs. Central Michigan and obviously the MAC Tournament are greater priorities for the Broncos at this point. They are only 3-13 SU on the road and 2-14 in conference play. They're no match for the Rockets tonight. Play on TOLEDO AAA |
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03-04-19 | Kansas State -1.5 v. TCU | Top | 64-52 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on KANSAS STATE Kansas State is seeking its first share of a Big 12 title since 2013 and first outright regular season championship since 1977 when the conference was still known as the Big 8. To at least accomplish the former, they'll need to win the final two regular season games. The latter would require winning both times and Texas Tech also losing once. Motivation won't be lacking for TCU tonight either in their final home game. But the Horned Frogs have dropped five of six and already lost to the Wildcats by 10 earlier in the year. I can't see them winning this time either, even at home. Kansas State is one of the very best defensive teams in the country and is on a 12-2 run vs. Big 12 opponents. Last week did feature a pair of subpar performances against Kansas and Baylor. But laying the shortest of numbers against TCU shouldn't be that much of a problem here. Play on KANSAS STATE AAA |
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03-04-19 | Nuggets v. Spurs -1 | Top | 103-104 | Push | 0 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SAN ANTONIO Denver is off a couple of head scratching defeats, both at home no less. One was to Utah, which would seem like not that big of a deal, but the Jazz were playing short-handed in that game. But more puzzling was the Nuggets losing to the Pelicans on Saturday, as 12.5-point favorites, game where they didn't even have to face Anthony Davis. I said to take New Orleans plus the points in that one and even I was surprised at the final result, especially considering NO trailed by as many as 19 at one point. Now the Nuggets must to go to San Antonio where the Spurs have won back to back games. They beat a hot Detroit team and a very good Oklahoma City team, both at home, in those last two games. This win streak comes on the heels of the annual "Rodeo Road Trip" which went very poorly vs. the Spurs this year (1-7 SU and ATS). The Spurs have now won six straight home games. These teams split a home and home back in late December with the home team winning both games. Look for that trend to continue here. Play on SAN ANTONIO AAA |
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03-03-19 | Rockets +2.5 v. Celtics | Top | 115-104 | Win | 100 | 6 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on HOUSTON The Celtics remain a clear fade for us as even when they won Friday night vs. Washington, they still trailed in the second half. That win came on the heels of a four-game losing streak to start the 2nd half of the season. We'd just played against them Wednesday when they lost at home to Portland. It's a similar setup Sunday as they welcome in a Houston team that has won four in a row. Boston couldn't beat the Blazers (who were on a similar win streak) and it's tough seeing them beating the Rockets either. In the five games since All Star Weekend concluded, the Celtics are averaging only 101.4 points per game and have been held under the century mark three times. Houston has averaged 116.4 points per game since the break, topping 118 each of the last four games. The Rockets were short-handed for their last game, but still found a way to win on the road despite trailing Miami by as much as 21 points in the second half. James Harden scored 58 points in the come from behind win. Houston won the season's first meeting 127-113 and you should expect a similar type score today. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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03-03-19 | Knicks v. Clippers UNDER 229.5 | Top | 107-128 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER KNICKS-CLIPPERS The Knicks are very bad, but you already knew this. While they have won three of five, that comes on the heels of a franchise-worst 18-game slide and they have the worst overall record in the league (13-49 SU). Thursday night may have been a new low as the Knicks gave up a 40-point fourth quarter (at home!) and lost to Cleveland, blowing all of a 14-point lead. We don't expect them to be competitive this afternoon in LA. But the game should be pretty low-scoring, at least when compared to today's total. This will be just the third home game for the Clippers since the beginning of February. They won each of the last two, beating Phoenix by 27 and Dallas by 9. But it's been some ugly shooting of late with just one of the last four games producing a field goal percentage above 43.5. The Knicks aren't apt to shoot the ball well either, so we don't see how this one could go Over a total that's so high. Play UNDER Knicks-Clippers AAA |
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03-03-19 | Manhattan v. Quinnipiac -8.5 | Top | 62-58 | Loss | -103 | 4 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Quinnipiac Quinnipiac has a shot at at earning itself a share of the MAAC regular season title. All they need to do today is beat a Manhattan team that already beat on the road earlier this year. That will give them a 12-6 SU league mark, same as Iona, whose regular season is now complete. A loss today though would be deadly for the Bobcats. As many as three other teams could finish w/ an 11-7 SU league mark and that scenario unfolds, Quinnipiac could go into the MAAC Tournament as low as the #5 seed. Fortunately, it would appear Manhattan is going to offer little resistance today. The Jaspers have lost three in a row, scoring just 52, 59 and 54 points. That's actually pretty par for the course as they come in averaging only 56.9 PPG, which ranks second to last in the entire country! They had no answer for a 12 of 28 Quinnipiac three-point barrage in the first meeting and it should be more of the same in today's regular season finale. Look for the home team to honor its seniors with a big win. PLAY ON QUINNIPIAC AAA |
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03-03-19 | South Florida v. Connecticut -4 | Top | 58-60 | Loss | -103 | 4 h 43 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on UConn Something will have to give here as USF has lost four in a row while UConn has dropped six straight. Certainly, the current state of Huskies hoops still takes some getting used to. However, they've at least been covering with regularity, going 8-2 ATS their last 10 games with both non-covers coming on the road. They actually haven't won a single game away from home all season, but are 12-4 SU in Storrs and that's where they are getting USF today. It just so happens that home favorite is the role that has treated UConn the best as they are 12-1 SU and 10-3 ATS. Laying just a short number here, against a subpar foe, thus seems advantageous. The Huskies have a scoring differential of +13.8 PPG at home. Yes, there was a time USF had a 17-6 record. But they've lost four straight, the last two coming by double digits, getting somewhat exposed in the process. Three days ago, UConn blew a 10-point lead against Wichita State and lost at the buzzer. They'll bounce back Sunday afternoon. Play on UCONN AAA |
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03-02-19 | Wild v. Flames -170 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -170 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 7* play on CALGARY Two hot teams meet Saturday night in Calgary, but the Flames are both hotter and better. Their win streak has reached seven games with them allowing a total of just four goals in the last four games. They lead the Western Conference with 89 points, are at home (where their record is 20-5-5) and have already beaten the Wild twice. The fact Minny has won four straight is a little bit surprising. They won in Winnipeg Tuesday and have been off ever since. Prior to this win streak, the Wild had gone 1-6-2 their previous nine games. I just don't see them at Calgary's level, especially as the road team. That win in Winnipeg saw the Wild score twice in the final two minutes of the third period. They won't be able to keep up here however as Calgary is the West's highest scoring team. Play on CALGARY AAA |
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03-02-19 | Colorado State v. New Mexico -2.5 | Top | 65-77 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on NEW MEXICO New Mexico suffered quite the embarrassing loss on Wednesday as they fell to San Jose State, who is one of the worst teams in the entire country, 89-82 as 10.5 point favorites. That's something that just "can't happen," but lucky for the Lobos they are back in Albuquerque for this Saturday night tilt with Colorado State. The Rams won at Boise State on Wednesday as 6.5-point underdogs. It was their third straight victory, but the other two were over San Jose State and Wyoming, the two worst teams in the Mountain West. New Mexico has lost three in a row. I'll call for both streaks to end tonight as the Lobos are playing with revenge for a loss in Ft. Collins where they were actually two-point favorites. Despite what we've seen recently, New Mexico is the better of the two teams and CSU's recent efforts simply are not sustainable. Play on NEW MEXICO AAA |
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03-02-19 | Pelicans +13.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 120-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on New Orleans When looking at this line, you probably could have guessed that Anthony Davis will be sitting out for the Pelicans. You would be correct as the team played last night - and won - beating Phoenix 130-116. But given what a distraction Davis has become, maybe his absence isn't all that it's "cracked up to be?" The Pelicans shot the ball ridiculously well Friday night, especially from three-point range. It won't be that easy tonight in Denver, but they're also now getting a boatload of points. The Nuggets suffered a rare home defeat at the hands of Utah (who was short-handed) on Thursday, snapping a nine-game win streak here. Maybe the situation isn't all that ideal for New Orleans, but the pointspread is far too generous for a team that has covered 10 of its last 14 games. New Orleans usually scores a lot, whether Davis is in the lineup or not, and that makes covering against them as double digit chalk problematic to say the least. Play on NEW ORLEANS AAA |
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03-02-19 | Toledo -1 v. Central Michigan | Top | 80-68 | Win | 100 | 7 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Toledo This is a big game in the MAC's Western Division where Toledo holds a one-game lead over Central Michigan. A win today by the road team would give them a two-game edge (duh!) as well as a season sweep of the Chippewas. CMU has been "money" against the spread lately, going 9-0-1 ATS its last 10 games, which includes covering that first meeting vs. Toledo where they were a nine-point underdog. Both teams were successful on the road earlier in the week with Toledo winning at Ball State and CMU winning at Eastern Michigan. Toledo's win, which came despite allowing their opponent to shoot 52.1%, seemed more impressive to me and I have them rated as the better team. CMU may average more than 90 PPG at home, but they won't get to that number here against a Rockets team allowing only 68.4 PPG. Play on TOLEDO AAA |
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03-02-19 | Mississippi State v. Auburn -5 | Top | 75-80 | Push | 0 | 7 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on AUBURN The last time Auburn played at home, I took them and was richly rewarded with an easy win and cover. Facing Arkansas, they were laying a pretty big number, but nothing could stop the Tigers that night as they raced out to a 25-point halftime lead and never looked back. That game saw them shoot 17 of 33 from three-point range and it would be nice to get something similar today as they host Miss State in a revenge game. Auburn lost in Starkville last month by a score of 92-84. It was their most points allowed in a game this season and a really disappointing result given the Tigers shot 53.2% from the floor themselves. After getting blown out at Kentucky last Saturday, then barely escaping Georgia, this should be a welcome return home for the Tigers. Miss State has won five in a row, but that's come against the lower-half of the SEC. At home, Auburn is 13-2 with a scoring differential of +23.5 per game. They haven't shot well recently, but I'm banking on them shooting well here. Play on AUBURN AAA |
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03-01-19 | Bucks v. Lakers UNDER 236.5 | Top | 131-120 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 39 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on UNDER Bucks-Lakers The Lakers finally won a game as they beat Anthony Davis and the Pelicans Wednesday night by a score of 125-119. But LeBron and company are by no means out of the woods yet as they are still three games out of the top eight in the Western Conference and tonight they have to face Milwaukee. The Bucks have won six straight and 12 of 13 to improve the league's best overall record to 47-14. They come off a 141-140 win at Sacramento two nights ago, a final score which clearly has influenced the total for tonight. But the Under is 21-9 in Lakers home games this season and I don't see this one going Over. The number is just too high. The Bucks are 5-2 Under in the last seven games and 18-13 Under on the road. After scoring 130+ points, they are 7-3 Under in the next game. Bucks' opponents are only shooting 43.1% this season, which is easily the lowest figure in the league. Play UNDER Lakers-Bucks AAA |
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03-01-19 | Avalanche v. Sharks OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Avs-Sharks This has all the makings of a wild, high-scoring game. San Jose is third in the league in goals per game and predictably increases its scoring average when playing at home. They are 19-5-5 at The Tank. But there is an issue and it's along the blue line with defenseman Erik Karlsson leaving Tuesday's game after re-injuring his groin. The Sharks gave up four goals in that game and Karlsson is out indefinitely as that same groin injury caused him to miss 10 games over the last two months. This is problematic going against a Colorado team that appears to have rediscovered its scoring touch with 23 goals scored in the last five games. The last time the Sharks and Avs played, the former won 5-4 in Denver. Four of the last five meetings have gone Over. Colorado has scored more goals on the road this season than they have at home. Play OVER Colorado-San Jose AAA |
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03-01-19 | Hornets v. Nets UNDER 228 | Top | 123-112 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on UNDER Hornets-Nets Brooklyn got surprisingly torched by Washington Wednesday night as they gave up 125 points. While that was going on, Charlotte was blowing a double digit second half lead and lost to Houston. With two playoff hopefuls coming off home losses, this game takes on a real importance. So I wouldn't look for a shootout. Before the upset loss to the Wizards, the Nets had held San Antonio to just 85 points in an impressive win. So giving up 40 more to an also-ran the next game was not expected. The good news here is Charlotte isn't good on the road where they only average 108.4 PPG. The Hornets haven't played on the road since before the All Star Break. Their final four games before the Break were all on the road and they went 1-3, scoring 93 pts or less in the three losses. So I don't expect them to do well offensively tonight and also key is the Hornets' 8-0 Under record when playing with revenge for a home loss. Last Friday, they lost at home to Brooklyn 117-115. This rematch will be a lower-scoring game. Play UNDER Charlotte-Brooklyn AAA |
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03-01-19 | Columbia v. Brown -5 | Top | 80-77 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on Brown Not sure what the reason is for this line being bet down so much, but Brown is now a really great value play. The Bears are at home, facing a Columbia team that they already defeated on the road. They come in on a three-game win streak, having just beaten both Harvard and Dartmouth here at home. Columbia has just one win in its last eight games and it was by two points. So the Lions aren't likely to be roaring on the road. They are 3-11 SU in road/neutral site games and giving up an average of 78.5 points in those contests. Brown is 11-2 SU at home where it averages 81.5 PPG. All signs point to laying the relatively short number with the home team in this one. The Bears were able to win at Columbia despite making only three three-pointers in the game. Brown has yet to lose as a favorite this year as they are 8-0 in the role. Play on BROWN AAA |
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02-28-19 | Cal Poly +12.5 v. CS-Fullerton | Top | 75-86 | Win | 100 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on CAL POLY Cal State Fullerton is only 13-14 overall this season, but they're 9-4 in the Big West and that's the second best record in the conference. But they were losers last Saturday to UCSB, falling by 15 as a four-point dog. It was just the second loss in the last 11 games. The team the Titans host Thursday has become somewhat familiar with losing as Cal Poly has dropped 10 of its last 12 games. They are in last place in the Big West, but did win their last game, which was at home against Hawaii. The Mustangs were eight point underdogs and won the game by eight. CS Fullerton is only 9-16 ATS overall and 2-6 ATS at home. Six of their last nine wins have come by seven points or fewer. Play on CAL POLY AAA |
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02-28-19 | 76ers v. Thunder -7.5 | Top | 108-104 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OKLAHOMA CITY Oklahoma City has not covered any of its last four contests. The most recent one was a 121-112 loss at Denver. The previous three all saw them fail to cover as a favorite. The only SU win in this stretch was a double overtime game vs. Utah. Today, they'll host a Philadelphia team that has had its own problems since returning from All Star Weekend. The Sixers have won two of the games, but barely as they beat Miami by four and New Orleans by only one. Depending when one bet that New Orleans game, it could have been a win or loss. Using the closing line of Sixers -2.5, it would be the third straight ATS loss for the team. I think some may be surprised over the size of this line, but remember Philly still doesn't have Joel Embiid. With a healthy Embiid in the lineup, they lost to the Thunder last month. They also won't have Boban Marjanovic in the lineup tonight. But perhaps more pertinent of all here is the Thunder's 19-game win streak over the Sixers, which is the longest active streak by one team over another in the league. Philly has beaten OKC just one time since the move from Seattle -- in 2008. Love the Thunder here as they are due to break out. Play on OKLAHOMA CITY AAA |
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02-28-19 | Arkansas State +11.5 v. Georgia State | Top | 60-76 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Arkansas State Georgia State is tied with Georgia Southern for second place in the Sun Belt, one game behind first place Texas State. Arkansas State is much further down the standings, several games off the pace. But this only meeting of the season should be closer than anticipated. The visiting Red Wolves come in one a two-game win streak. Both wins were at home, but they are 6-1 ATS their last seven road games with a total of 150 to 154.5. Georgia State is off a bad loss at Coastal Carolina where they gave up 95 points. They trailed by 25 at halftime. Too many points to lay here as it's a team unaccustomed to laying so many against a team that typically doesn't get as many. Play on ARKANSAS STATE AAA |
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02-27-19 | Texas v. Baylor -4.5 | Top | 83-84 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on BAYLOR Baylor and Texas have a huge game tonight in Waco as both are looking to establish themselves as NCAA Tournament worthy teams. The latest "Bracketology" projections have both teams in, but Texas would seem to be in a pretty precarious state, given their 15-12 SU record. Unfortunately for tonight, the Longhorns will have to go in short-handed as their leading scorer Kerwin Roach II has been suspended for an off the court matter. They'll get no sympathy from a Baylor team, who has had to navigate the season without two of its top players, Tristan Clark and King McClure. Plus the Bears have revenge from a 12-point loss in Austin earlier this month. Baylor has performed surprisingly well without the two players, winning three of its last four games. I expect Texas to struggle without Roach. Play on BAYLOR AAA |
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02-27-19 | Pacers v. Mavs UNDER 216 | Top | 101-110 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Pacers-Mavs Indiana is a top defensive team in this league, but of course they're carrying on without their top scorer (Victor Oladipo) the rest of the way. So I'd expect them to be a strong Under play more often that not and tonight is one of those times. Now all three of their games since the All Star Break have gone Over. I actually just played against them on Monday when they suffered a four-point loss in Detroit. Tonight though, they are playing a Dallas team mired in a five-game slump where they haven't won nor covered even once. Last month when these teams met in Indiana, it was a 111-99 Pacers victory that stayed Under the total. A similar result would not surprise me, although this time the Mavs probably keep it closer. Partly because Dallas is a much better defensive team at home. The Mavs are 16-7 Under when facing an Eastern Conference opponent this year. Play UNDER Indiana-Dallas AAA |
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02-27-19 | Blazers +3 v. Celtics | Top | 97-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on Portland I think its pretty apparent that Boston has a lot of problems going on right now. Last night, they were handed their worst defeat of the season, by Toronto, 118-95. They have little time to sulk as tonight they return home to face the red-hot Blazers. The Celtics are now 0-3 since the break and rapidly running out of excuses. Now all three losses did take place on the road. But Portland has had no such difficulty winning on the road, going 3-0 there since the break. It's a four-game win streak overall for the Blazers, who have also covered the spread in all four games. The latest win came in Cleveland Monday night by a score of 123-110. When coming off a double digit victory this season, Portland has gone 16-5 ATS in its next game. Given the recent form of the two teams here, I don't know how one can make a case for Boston, who is also 3-6 ATS playing in the second night of a back to back. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
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02-27-19 | Flames -159 v. Devils | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 7* play on Calgary While on the road and playing the second night of a back to back, we do not anticipate the Flames having much difficulty winning tonight in New Jersey. Calgary is certainly "back on track" now with six straight wins, including 3-1 over the Islanders last night. This team leads the Western Conference with 87 points, which is a far cry from the 58 points that the last place Devils have. The Devils are off a win, 2-1 over Montreal on Monday, but have not done a good job at staying successful this season. What I mean by that is they've produced back to back victories only one time since the All Star Break. They are only 9-20 when facing an opponent that has a winning record. Calgary is 22-11 vs. sub-.500 foes. With the Flames having allowed just three goals in the last three games, this one is as easy as it looks. Play on CALGARY AAA |
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02-26-19 | Stars v. Golden Knights -190 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 7* play on VEGAS The faithful in Vegas are not used to seeing the home team lose, but lose they have as the Golden Knights come into Tuesday having dropped five out of the last six at T-Mobile Arena. That's highly uncharacteristic and I suspect it's just a matter of time before they get back on track. Tonight seems like as good a spot as any as Dallas already lost here once this season. After getting shutout in three of their previous five games, the Stars got off the mat to beat the Blackhawks 4-3 in overtime Sunday. But this team has all sorts of issues scoring, especially on the road where they average the fewest number of goals per game in the league. In its brief franchise history, Vegas is 6-2 SU when coming off three straight defeats. Dallas has been giving up lots of shots on goal lately and this is an area where the Golden Knights can capitalize. Play on VEGAS AAA |
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02-26-19 | Syracuse v. North Carolina -11.5 | Top | 85-93 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on North Carolina I said that there was no way Syracuse could reasonably be expected to compete Saturday night vs. Duke, even at home and with the Blue Devils playing without Zion Williamson. This is because of the situation with Jim Boeheim trumping everything. If you haven't been following the news, a car driven by Boeheim struck and killed a pedestrian late last week. The fact Boeheim is continuing to coach is somewhat mind-blowing, given that circumstance. The Orange actually played better than I though they would vs. Duke, but still lost by 10 at the Carrier Dome. Now they must turnaround and hit the road to face the team that just beat Duke, that being North Carolina. The Tar Heels are as hot as anyone in the country right now. Yes, they took full advantage of Williamson getting hurt when they beat Duke, but this is a team that has won its last two games - both against very good teams (Duke and Florida State) by a combined 34 points despite shooting just 9 of 40 from three-point land. They should destroy Syracuse tonight in Chapel Hill as the Orange lack the offensive punch to compete with a team that averages 88.4 PPG. Play on NORTH CAROLINA AAA |
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02-26-19 | Celtics v. Raptors UNDER 226 | Top | 95-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER Boston-Toronto Eastern Conference heavyweights collide North of the Border with both teams looking to bounce back from bad losses. Boston lost in Chicago Saturday while Toronto was upset by Orlando Sunday afternoon. The Celtics hold the edge in the season series, winning 2 of 3, but the home team is a perfect 3-0. Looking at the total, it just seems too high. Boston was held to only 97 points in a loss to Milwaukee last Thursday. There was no excuse for the poor defensive effort against the Bulls, but regardless I expect them to be better at that end of the floor this evening. Toronto was also just held under 100 pts in its last game. This figures to take on more of a "playoff-like" intensity, so a high-scoring affair seems unlikely. Both teams sport a top six defensive efficiency rating. It's been all Overs in the three previous head to head games this season, but this one will be different as it figures to be a pretty fierce battle. The Under is 8-3 in Toronto's last 11 games vs. teams with a winning record and 7-1 in Boston's previous eight road games. Play UNDER Boston-Toronto AAA |
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02-26-19 | Sabres v. Flyers -160 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 7* play on PHILADELPHIA Already in the midst of a slide, this is a very bad spot for Buffalo. After losing 5-3 last night in Toronto, the Sabres now must play one of the league's hottest teams in Philadelphia. The Flyers stormed back from a two-goal deficit in the third period to beat Pittsburgh on Saturday and have now won 13 out of their last 17 games. Meanwhile, Buffalo has dropped five out of its last six. Given how things have been going, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Philly ended up with more points at season's end, which seemed highly unlikely when Buffalo was winning 10 straight back in November. But aside from that one streak, the Sabres are just 19-33 in all other games. That's just not very good, nor is their 11-16-4 road record. The Flyers won 6-2 the last time they faced Buffalo. They've won the last three meetings at home as well. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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02-25-19 | Northern Colorado v. Montana OVER 142 | Top | 74-72 | Win | 100 | 22 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Northern Colorado-Montana I don't think that the end of Northern Colorado's 9-game Under streak made many headlines over the weekend, but it did end. The Bears lost an overtime game to Eastern Washington, 88-78. Let it be known though that the game would have gone Over even without OT - by double digits. It's not as if Northern Colorado is a poor offensive team. They average 77.2 points per game. That Under streak was more a byproduct of them playing bad Big Sky teams in games with pretty high totals. Here they face the Big Sky's best offensive - and overall - team in Montana. This is a pretty important game between the conference's 1st and 2nd place teams. Northern Colorado is two games back and was beaten badly - 88-64 - by Montana in the first meeting. That was at home too. Montana averages 80.0 PPG in Missoula and has scored at least 83 points in five out of its last six games (Over is 5-1). The Grizzlies are an excellent shooting team and the last five meetings with Northern Colorado have all gone Over. Tonight's total is actually lower than it was for the first meeting, which seems like a mistake by the oddsmakers. Play OVER Northern Colorado-Montana AAA |
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02-25-19 | 76ers v. Pelicans -1.5 | Top | 111-110 | Loss | -107 | 21 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on NEW ORLEANS I've bet against Philadelphia each of their last two games and gone 2-0 ATS. They barely got by Miami, winning by just four points at home. Then they got blown out by Portland, also at home. Now they take their act on the road and one player that won't be making the trek to the Big Easy is Joel Embiid. Embiid has missed those last two games, so that helps explain the slide. But giving up 130 points to the Blazers was definitely not a good look, Embiid or no Embiid. New Orleans just beat the Lakers Saturday night and did so with Anthony Davis not even suiting up. Davis should play tonight and he'd join seven teammates that were in double figures vs. LA, a 128-point effort that included the Pelicans highest scoring 1st quarter (43 points) all season. The Pelicans have an 18-11 record at home and thus looking like a strong play on the Monday card. Philly has gotten to play six out of its last seven games at home with the one road game coming against the Knicks. Their record is only .500 (14-14 SU) on the road. Play on NEW ORLEANS AAA |
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02-25-19 | Pacers v. Pistons -2.5 | Top | 109-113 | Win | 100 | 20 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on DETROIT Initially, things weren't looking so good for Indiana without Victor Oladipo. They lost the first four games after it was announced their leading scorer was done for the year with a knee injury. But since then, the Pacers are 8-1 with the only loss coming to the team with the league's best record, Milwaukee. They've gone 7-2 ATS in those games. But on Monday, it appears as if they'll have to overcome more injuries with Myles Turner and Tyreke Evans still on the questionable list. They'll also have to overcome a Detroit team that is starting to build some of its own momentum after winning five out of its last six. That win streak has the Pistons in the coveted eighth spot in the Eastern Conference. They just went on the road and whipped Miami by 23 points. Tonight is a big revenge game in the Motor City as the Pistons lost to the Pacers by 37 back in December. Indiana is only 1-4 ATS on the division road and I think they are poised to lose another tonight. Play on DETROIT AAA |
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02-25-19 | Canadiens -129 v. Devils | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -129 | 20 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on MONTREAL Montreal really needs this game. They just lost a game to Toronto, 6-3, a result I predicted would happen (took the Maple Leafs). That keeps them in fourth place in the Atlantic, but also just one point ahead of the two teams tied for the other Wild Card spot. Just a slight drop and the Canadiens could be out of the playoff picture entirely. Lucky for tonight, they are up against a last place team. New Jersey figures to finish at the bottom of the Metropolitan, a place where they've been most of this season. They just gave up five goals in a loss to a bad Rangers team and are 29th in the league in number of goals given up. The Habs should be in a better position as they have either led or at least been tied in the third period in four of their last five losses. This includes the 6-3 loss in Toronto where they gave up a shocking four goals in the third period, three of them coming in the final two minutes. Play on MONTREAL AAA |
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02-24-19 | Blues v. Wild UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on UNDER Blues-Wild Anyone thinking that St. Louis was apt to slide after having a franchise 11-game win streak broken best think again. The Blues did lose in Dallas Thursday, snapping that 11-game win streak. But they bounced right back with a 2-1 win over Boston last night. Other than that loss to Dallas, scoring on the Blues has been difficult. Three shutouts in the last 10 days alone, then they gave up just the one goal last night. Minnesota is a team that's gone Under in four straight. So this figures to be a low-scoring game. Two of those last four games for the Wild have seen them get shutout. Yes, one was against the Blues, a 4-0 loss. When playing at home and the total is 5.5, Minnesota is 11-3 Under this season. They're also 4-0 Under in Sunday games. Play UNDER St. Louis-Minnesota AAA |
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02-24-19 | California v. Arizona State -17.5 | Top | 59-69 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on ARIZONA STATE California is very bad. That shouldn't be any kind of newsflash for a team that is now 5-22 overall. But every time you think things may have bottomed out in Berkeley, they find a way to get worse. The latest setback came to an Arizona team that had lost and failed to cover seven in a row. It was also Cal's 15th loss in a row. They are 0-14 vs. the rest of the Pac 12 and 0-12 away from home. Their last win was before Christmas and against a San Jose State team that is among the very worst in the country. So Arizona State should roll tonight as they have already beaten Cal by double digits on the road. Now they get the Bears at home. The Sun Devils have posted two straight double digit wins, including 80-62 over Stanford on Wednesday. Other than Washington, ASU is probably the best team in the Pac 12. Maybe that's not saying much, but they'll win big Sunday. Play on ARIZONA STATE AAA |
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02-24-19 | Clippers v. Nuggets OVER 233 | Top | 96-123 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OVER Clippers-Nuggets Look for "sparks" to fly in this Sunday afternoon matchup as the Nuggets play host to the Clippers. What I mean by that is that you should expect plenty of points here. Obviously, Denver can score. Especially at home where they average an impressive 116.1 PPG. That scoring average is a real key as to why they have gone 25-4 SU in all home games this season. The Clippers are no slouch offensively either as they average 114.2 PPG overall. Both teams hit right around those respective scoring averages in their first games after the All Star Break. LA has gone Over in four straight with three of those games having totals in a similar high range like this one. The last time these teams played, the game did stay Under but that was largely due to the Clippers having an off night across the board, including 25% from three-point range and missing 8 of 26 foul shots. Still the game almost went Over. The Clippers are 6-2 Over this year in road games with a total of 230 points or higher. Denver has gone Over in six of its last seven games against opponents with winning records. Play OVER LA Clippers-Denver AAA |
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02-24-19 | Michigan State +4.5 v. Michigan | Top | 77-70 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on MICHIGAN STATE Finally, the two top teams in the Big 10 get a chance to play one another. There's probably an argument to be made that Michigan State would have liked to play this game a little sooner in the season considering some of the attrition suffered on the injury front. But the Spartans keep on winning in spite of those injuries and I think are a great value getting points Sunday in Ann Arbor. Tom Izzo's team certainly hasn't had much difficulty covering the spread this season as their ATS record is a sterling 19-8. They'd covered three straight before getting caught laying 15.5 to Rutgers earlier in the week and they only won by 11. This will be only the third time getting points. While their ATS record as an underdog so far is 0-2 and Michigan is 16-0 SU at home, I still rate the visitors as the better team here. I was quite surprised to see the Wolverines have won the last three games in this rivalry. Not this time. Take the points. Play on MICHIGAN STATE AAA |
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02-23-19 | Grizzlies v. Cavs -2 | Top | 107-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on CLEVELAND Cleveland is actually favored here as they are coming off a win and Memphis is off a loss, last night, to the Clippers. While the idea of the Cavs laying points may scare off some, I think the situation calls for it as their opponents are both unrested and incredibly short-handed. Going on the road in the second night of a back to back is bad enough for a slumping Memphis team, but doing so without Jaren Jackson Jr, who was the #4 pick in last year's draft, makes things even tougher. The Grizzlies have lost 15 of their last 19 games anyway and are 9-21 SU on the road. The fact that they blew a fourth quarter lead last night makes this even tougher. Cleveland played one of its better games of the season Thursday night, beating Phoenix 111-98 and they led comfortably most of the way. Kevin Love is now back, so the Cavs aren't as bad as they look on paper. Memphis is 2-6 SU and ATS in the second game of a back to back this year. Play on CLEVELAND AAA |
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02-23-19 | Canadiens v. Maple Leafs -169 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 7* play on TORONTO It's really time for Toronto to get going. They have the unfortunate distinction of having both the league's best (Tampa Bay) and hottest (Boston) team in their division. That's left the Leafs in third place in the Atlantic, making the margin for error incredibly slim. It hasn't helped that they've lost three in a row. Tonight, they'll host Montreal, who happens to be right behind them in the Atlantic. It's only a three-point gap between third and fourth place and once you drop to 4th, then you have to rely on the Wild Card to make the playoffs. That's no guarantee in the Atlantic with five viable playoff teams over in the Metropolitan. So tonight's game has some major importance. I just think Toronto happens to be the significantly better team here and I can't see them losing what would be a season-high 4th straight game. This is actually the first time they've even lost three in a row. The Canadiens have not won a road game since January. Sure, they only played three in February, but they were outscored 12-4 in them. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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02-23-19 | Duke -4.5 v. Syracuse | Top | 75-65 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on DUKE
AAA |
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02-23-19 | St. Joe's +2.5 v. Massachusetts | Top | 79-80 | Win | 100 | 6 h 2 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on St. Joe's I'm not sure UMass should be favored against anyone in the A-10, even at home, given they're the last place team in the conference. The Minutemen are just 9-17 SU overall with a 2-11 A-10 record. But here's the real kicker. They are 0-12 ATS as a favorite this season, losing nine of those games straight up! Most of those games have taken place here in Amherst where they're just 2-10 ATS overall. UMass already lost to St. Joe's earlier in the year in what was a two-point game. St. Joe's won despite a 33.9 FG% and making only 4 of 23 three-point attempts. While the road has been far from kind to the Hawks, today's game would certainly qualify as the most "winnable" (away from home) on the Atlantic 10 slate. UMass just lost to a bad George Washington team by 12 on Wednesday, which was another time they were favored (-2.5 on the road). Given their ATS record as chalk, I don't see how one couldn't fade them Saturday. Play on ST. JOE'S AAA |
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02-23-19 | Blazers +2 v. 76ers | Top | 130-115 | Win | 100 | 21 h 33 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on PORTLAND Despite an off-night from leading scorer Damian Lillard, the Blazers were still able to go on the road and beat Brooklyn - handily - Thursday night, winning by a final score of 113-99. They were just three-point favorites. One has to imagine Lillard will play better here, even if it is against a tougher opponent. He shot just 5 of 21 against the Nets. This is a 26.0 PPG scorer mind you, now backed by Enes Kanter, who contributed 18 pts and nine rebounds in his Blazers debut. As for Philly, they struggled to beat the Heat here Thursday night as they were without Joel Embiid. It looks like they'll be without their starting center for at least a week, so those struggles could continue even with a strong-looking roster. They trailed Miami going into the fourth quarter and with as little as 1:56 to go. While a late surge got them the win, the Sixers still failed to cover, which was good as I bet against them. I'll do the same again here knowing that Portland crushed them earlier this year by 34, another game where the Sixers didn't have Embiid. Philly is a season-best 17 games over .500 right now and likely to drop a game or two. The Blazers are 14-5 ATS coming off a double digit win. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
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02-22-19 | Ducks v. Flames -1.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Calgary -1.5 (puck line) Anaheim is really bad and I'm not sure that the level of awareness is there. It helps that coming into tonight the Ducks have won two straight games. This masks the fact that they have been outscored by 50 goals this season, which is a league worst. Tonight, the Ducks find themselves in Calgary facing a Flames side that is quite prolific at scoring on home ice and I see a blowout being in the cards. Anaheim has won 11 of the past 14 matchups, but that's all in the past now. The Flames are the far superior team in 2019 as they have the most points in the Western Conference (81) and average an impressive 4.2 goals per game here at the Saddledome. They've scored 14 goals in the last three games alone, the last two of which were here at home. Winning by multiple goals tonight should not be hard as Anaheim's last six setbacks have all been by at least a three goal margin. The Flames are one of only five teams in the league that outscore teams by at least a full goal per game when at home. Play CALGARY on the PUCK LINE (-1.5) AAA |
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02-22-19 | Wizards v. Hornets -5 | Top | 110-123 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on CHARLOTTE Charlotte starts the 2nd half of their season with a key division home game vs. Washington. The Hornets, unlike the Wizards, are likely playoff bound this year thanks to a watered down Eastern Conference. But just because the East is so watered down doesn't mean the Hornets should take a playoff berth for granted. They lost four of five going into All Star Weekend, but now return home where they are a very strong 19-9 SU while averaging 113.3 PPG. Though the loss took place a while ago, there is revenge in play here with the Wizards, who beat the Hornets 130-126 back on December 29th. But that was in D.C. and back when Washington still had John Wall in the lineup (Wall is done for the year). The Wiz are a really lousy road team (8-23 SU) and road games where the oddsmakers expect a lot of scoring have REALLY been their undoing. The team's ATS record in away games with a total of at least 230 pts is 0-6-1 and they've lost all seven straight up. Charlotte is 1-9 SU in games where Tony Parker doesn't play, but he's expected back in the lineup for tonight. Cody Zeller is also now healthy. I look for the Hornets to roll in their first game since the break. Play on CHARLOTTE AAA |
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02-22-19 | Niagara v. Rider UNDER 156.5 | Top | 81-97 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* UNDER Niagara-Rider Back on January 13th, Rider beat Niagara 104-84. That was the game before the Broncs apparenty decided to bankrupt its fanbase. Since that win, which was not surprisingly their best offensive effort of the year, Rider is an unsightly 1-10 at the betting window (ATS) and even more problematic is that they've fallen from 5-0 SU in the conference to just 9-6. But they did win both of their games last week, even covering the spread in one of them. For this rematch with Niagara, I don't see Rider shooting anywhere close to as well as they did in the first meeting (they were 61%). Fortunately for the Broncs, they defend well at home, which will counteract any offensive decline. For the season, they are allowing just 65.2 points per game. That's almost 10 PPG less than their overall season average. So an Under seems to be in order for tonight as Niagara isn't any kind of "great shakes" offensively, plus they're already 10-2 Under in road games. The total is just too high here. Play UNDER Niagara-Rider AAA |
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02-21-19 | St. Mary's -7.5 v. Pacific | Top | 58-32 | Win | 100 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on St. Mary's St. Mary's is a good team, but hasn't been covering spreads lately. They are 1-6 ATS last seven games. But tonight is a situation conducive for them to win big. They're playing a Pacific team they already beat, by 12, early in the month. That was one of the games they did not cover, but it was close as they were 14-point favorites. The key was Pacific shot 67 percent in the first half. That won't happen again in tonight's rematch. In the two games since playing SMU, the Tigers have scored 59 points twice. They have scored more than 66 just one time in the last 11 games. Because they are on the road this time, St. Mary's doesn't need to win by as much to cover the spread. It's not asking too much for the Gaels to win by double digits again vs. a team barely averaging 60 points per game in WCC action. Play on ST. MARY'S AAA |
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02-21-19 | Heat v. 76ers OVER 219 | Top | 102-106 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER MIAMI-PHILLY As for the total, this should be a high scoring game. The Heat are obviously stronger on offense now with Dragic and Jones back. An interesting note about Miami is they have a better record on the road than at home. That tidbit applies to our side play, but also here as even with Dragic missing all that time, the Heat still score more on the road than they do at home (slightly). Philly scores a lot more at home (119.1 PPG) than on the road, so even without Embiid, they figure to finish with a decent number tonight. It won't be enough to cover the spread, but it will still be a decent number. The Sixers haven't scored fewer than 106 points in any game since the new year. Play OVER MIAMI-PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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02-21-19 | Heat +6.5 v. 76ers | Top | 102-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on MIAMI I'll be playing both the side and total in this Miami-Philly game. For the side, I'm taking the Heat plus the points. They'll be getting both Goran Dragic and Derrick Jones Jr back in the rotation tonight. This is great news, particularly with Dragic, who is their starting point guard. To me, this is too many points for Philly to be laying in the first game after a long layoff. It's a situation that's conducive to suffering an upset. I know the 76ers look strong on paper, but Joel Embiid isn't playing tonight. He's going to miss the next week due to a knee injury. I know it's been awhile since they last played, but the Sixers are just 5-12 ATS off a double digit win. Before the All Star Break, they beat the Knicks by 15. Miami won at Dallas right before the Break and Dallas is a good home team. They can win here as well. Take the points. Play on MIAMI AAA |
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02-21-19 | Suns v. Cavs UNDER 218.5 | Top | 98-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER SUNS-CAVS What a game this is. I'm being facetious, of course. Phoenix is the worst team in the Western Conference. Cleveland would be the worst team in the Eastern Conference if not for the Knicks. Look for an ugly game. Defensively, are these teams any good? Obviously not. But they're not good offensively either. The Cavs average only 103.0 PPG, which is last in the East and second worst in the whole league. Phoenix isn't much better at 105.9 PPG. That's 2nd worst in the West and they don't have TJ Warren (one of their top two scorers). When you look at the Cavs last game, a 148-139 loss to Brooklyn, note that it was a triple overtime game. It was 109-109 at the end of regulation. Before that, they had not topped 107 points in five games. The Suns haven't topped 107 in the last four games. Play UNDER PHOENIX-CLEVELAND AAA |
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02-21-19 | Capitals v. Maple Leafs OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -128 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER CAPS-LEAFS In what has been an incredible O/U run for us, we've generally been targeting Overs in games with high totals like this one. It worked out yesterday as the Blackhawks and Red Wings combined for nine goals. Expect something similar here from Washington and Toronto. Neither team is any stranger to scoring goals. Washington averages 3.4/game while Toronto is slightly better at 3.5. Granted, the Maple Leafs had some struggling scoring in their last two games, which you might want to pin on the fact they were playing on the road. But the two games before that, also on the road, saw them score 11 times. I don't see them having any trouble scoring tonight as they've faced Washington twice before and scored 10 goals in those two games. The Capitals are 14-7 Over in revenge spots in 2018-19 and 5-1 Over when coming off three or more consecutive road games. Play OVER Washington-Toronto AAA |
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02-20-19 | Air Force v. Fresno State -12.5 | Top | 64-61 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Fresno State There's been a highly unusual pattern to emerge from past meetings between Air Force and Fresno State. Fresno State almost always wins (11 of the last 13 meetings), but Air Force usually leaves with the cash (10-2-1 ATS in those same 13 games). This pattern has really held true here in Fresno where the home team has won seven straight times, but the Flyboys have covered six of those times. With a double digit spread tonight, I can see how some might think this pattern will continue. However, I see something different unfolding, that being a lopsided win for FSU. This particular Air Force team is really bad on the road. They are 1-8 SU and averaging just 61.1 PPG. They've also only covered one of their last six games overall. Fresno State has won five of six, the lone exception being a one-point loss to Utah State. The Bulldogs average 78.2 points per game at home. Play on FRESNO STATE AAA |
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02-20-19 | North Carolina v. Duke UNDER 166.5 | Top | 88-72 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the UNDER in UNC-DUKE The sport's greatest rivalry is renewed tonight at Cameron Indoor Stadium. This is a big line for a battle of top eight teams, but Duke is #1 and the line does look to be about right. The total is also very high, also not surprising considering both teams topped 90 points the last time we saw them. But in a game where they're facing an opponent of roughly the same caliber, I can't see this being that high scoring. Both teams will score plenty. But Duke is holding teams to an average of 62.7 points per game at home and has a top five national defensive efficiency rating. The Under is a surprising 17-7 in all of their games and 17-5 when they are the favorite. They are also 14-3 Under after scoring more than 80 points their last game. UNC is 7-3 Under on the road and 8-4 Under in conference play. They have also gone Under 17 of the last 23 games with a total of 160 to 169.5 points. Play UNDER UNC-DUKE AAA |
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02-20-19 | Blackhawks v. Red Wings OVER 6.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OVER Chicago-Detroit The Blackhawks have seen the Over hit in nine straight games now and the last one was the highest scoring yet as they beat Ottawa 8-7. That was a matchup of the two teams that have given up the most goals in the league. Here, Chicago will face a Detroit team that isn't quite as inept as Ottawa defensively, but is still bottom tier. So while we may not see another game with 15 goals scored, an Over is still a strong likelihood. During this nine-game Over stretch, Chicago has scored four or more goals itself seven times. They've scored at least five goals themselves six times. Detroit just got done playing a home and home against Philadelphia. They lost both games, one of them a 6-5 final. One positive for the Red Wings is that they are getting plenty of shots on goal of late. They've averaged 35.4 shots on goal the last five games. Not only have the last nine Chicago games gone Over the total, so too have 16 of the last 18. Add another to the list. Play OVER Chicago-Detroit AAA |
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02-20-19 | Rutgers v. Michigan State -16 | Top | 60-71 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on MICHIGAN STATE Michigan State comes into tonight a little shorthanded, but not shorthanded enough to the point where they can't blow out Rutgers. Already without Joshua Langford (done for year), the Spartans are now without Nick Ward for an indefinite period of time due to a hairline fracture in his shooting (left) hand. But like I said, Sparty should still roll tonight. All the way back on November 30th, they opened up Big 10 play with an easy 11-point victory over the Scarlet Knights, in New Jersey. While MSU is dealing with some physical injuries, Rutgers must somehow overcome the emotional toll of losing on a buzzer beater to Iowa on Saturday. It was their fourth loss in five games and they seem to be heading down the tubes. Michigan State is one of the few teams in the country talented enough to overcome injuries. Play on MICHIGAN STATE AAA |
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02-19-19 | Maple Leafs v. Blues -117 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
This is a *10* play on St. Louis St. Louis continues to be the hottest team in the league as their remarkable run has now hit 10 in a row. Their last three wins have all been shutouts and all three games were on the road. Tonight, I look for this win streak to continue as they get to play host to a Toronto team whose number they have had for the past couple seasons. It's been five straight wins over the Maple Leafs (an old Norris Division rival!) including 4-1 way back in October. At that time, the Blues were playing nowhere near as well as they are now. The Leafs just got shutout in Arizona and while its been awhile since they've lost back to back games, I see that fate befalling them today. This has been a truly dominant stretch by the Blues, outscoring opponents 40-14. It's been led by goalie Binnington, who is 12-1-1 as a starter with a 1.43 GAA and .943 save percentage. You really can't go against this Blues team right now. Play on ST. LOUIS AAA |
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02-19-19 | Bradley v. Drake -4 | Top | 68-77 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on DRAKE Give credit to Drake as the season-ending injury to leading scorer Nick Norton has not really derailed their season in any way. Sure, initially, it looked like it might. Norton tore his ACL back in early January and the Bulldogs lost the next two games. But they've since won 9 of 12 and are still tied for 1st in the Missouri Valley at 9-5 SU. The team they are tied with is Loyola Chicago, who should be a familiar name based on last season's run to the Final Four. Drake has lost twice already to the Ramblers, so that puts them at a disadvantage for that top seed in next month's conference tournament. But a strong finish to the regular season could certainly go a long way and I don't see the Bulldogs losing at home to a Bradley team that's due for a letdown after four straight wins, three of them upsets. The Braves got blown out by Drake (lost by 17) on their home floor last month, and I don't see them performing a whole lot better on the road. Drake basically averages 80 points per game at home. Play on DRAKE AAA |
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02-18-19 | Illinois v. Wisconsin -11 | Top | 58-64 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Wisconsin Wisconsin certainly has some work to do. Because they've lost two straight, the Badgers almost certainly will fall out of the new top 25 when that poll is released later today. But don't make the mistake of thinking this isn't one of the 25 best teams in America. Before losing to Michigan and Michigan State, both top 10 teams mind you, the Badgers had won six in a row. They had covered the spread in all six games as well. Tonight, they are going to play one of the six teams they beat during that streak, Illinois. They beat the Illini 72-60 back on Jan 23rd and that was on the road as 4.5-point favorites. The Illini come into this rematch riding their own four-game win streak, which includes three upsets, the latest taking place at Ohio State Thursday. But they seem ill-suited to compete against the Badgers as they've dropped four in a row to them, failing to cover all four times as well. Also, before beating Ohio State, the Illini had just one road win all season. Wisconsin is a very good defensive team and after being held below 60 pts in its last three games, they should do some damage offensively here. Play on WISCONSIN AAA |
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02-18-19 | Lightning v. Blue Jackets OVER 6.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -127 | 19 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* OVER play on Lightning-Blue Jackets We took the Over on Columbus' last game, which ended up being a 5-2 win for them and us. That game was against a Chicago team that is tied for having allowed the most goals in the league. It's a much different opponent Monday, but we should still anticipate a high scoring affair. That's because the Blue Jackets are now facing a Lightning team that leads the league in scoring. It's almost undisputed that Tampa Bay is the best team in the league right now and they come into Monday hot, on the heels of five consecutive victories. They've won the last two in shutout fashion, 6-0 and 3-0. But even though Columbus was shutout in their last home game (3-0 by the Islanders), I wouldn't look for such a fate to await them tonight. Over the L6 games, the Blue Jackets have scored at least three goals five times. So call that shutout loss an outlier. As for TB, well, they had scored five or more goals in four straight games before "only" scoring three against Montreal Saturday. In two previous games vs. Columbus this year, the Lightning have scored 8 and 4 goals. Play OVER Tampa Bay-Columbus. AAA |
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02-17-19 | Capitals -180 v. Ducks | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -180 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 6* play on WASHINGTON Anaheim is a very bad team, much worse than I think the public realizes at this point. We went into this a bit the last time I went against them, which also happened to be their last game, a 3-0 home loss to the Bruins. The Ducks' goal differential for the season is now -57, which is by far an away the worst such mark in the league. The next worst GD is -38 (Kings). Overall, Anaheim has won just three of its last 23 games. In the last six games, they've managed only five goals. Sunday's opponent is Washington and they scored five goals in their last game. The Caps can't afford to drop this game if they are to keep pace with the surging Islanders in the Metropolitan. The team they just beat (San Jose) had been as hot as anyone in this league. The fact that it was a road win was even more impressive as the Sharks have lost only four times on home ice all season. The Caps have won four of their last six and should cruise here against an Anaheim team that is last in the league in scoring. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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02-17-19 | Arizona +4 v. Colorado | Top | 60-67 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on ARIZONA Arizona has lost six in a row, but don't give up on them just yet as I believe the Wildcats are due to have a breakout performance tonight in Boulder. Not only have the Wildcats lost six in a row, they've failed to cover the spread in all six games. Colorado is 4-0 SU/ATS its last four, so again, this looks like two teams heading in different directions. But sometimes that's exactly what you want as the underdog looks to be underappreciated in this one as Arizona beat Colorado earlier in the year, 64-56 as six-point favorites. It would seem as if the line has shifted too far for the rematch as Colorado has not been favored by this much against anybody since facing Cal back on January 24th. They were the underdog for three of the last four games and only -1.5 vs. Arizona State Wednesday, a game they won by only four points. This is the first time the Buffaloes have won four straight in conference play since the 2005-06 season. It's a most opportune time to fade them. Play on ARIZONA AAA |
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02-17-19 | Rangers v. Penguins OVER 6.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 8 m | Show |
This is an 8* Play on the OVER in Rangers-Penguins The Rangers just turned in one of their better efforts of the year, scoring six times in an easy win at Buffalo Friday night. Though they continue to struggle, New York has now found the back of the net at least three times in seven of the last eight games. Four times during that same stretch, they've scored four or more goals in a game. This afternoon, they go up against a Pittsburgh side that rarely has any issues scoring. The Penguins have totaled 14 goals in the last four games alone and are a top five team in the league in goals per game. But they did lose yesterday, by a score of 5-4 here at home to the Calgary Flames. It was the second time in the last four games the Pens lost by a score of 5-4. Since the start of last season, these teams have met five times and all five games have gone Over the total. There has been a minimum of seven goals scored in all five games with the last matchup being a 7-2 final in Pittsburgh's favor. Given the amount of scoring we've seen from the two sides lately, another Over certainly seems to be in the cards. Play OVER Rangers-Penguins AAA |
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02-16-19 | Northwestern v. Nebraska -5 | Top | 50-59 | Win | 100 | 20 h 16 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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02-16-19 | Blue Jackets v. Blackhawks OVER 6.5 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 20 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* OVER play on Blue Jackets-Blackhawks We're switching courses here with Columbus as you may recall we played the Under in the Blue Jackets last game. That resulted in a 3-0 loss to the Islanders, but it's a very different opponent they are matched up with on Saturday. Whereas the Islanders are 1st in the league in goals allowed, Chicago is 30th. Helping matters further is the fact the Blackhawks scored five goals of their own in their most recent game. That was against New Jersey Thursday, here in the Windy City. Going back to before the All Star Break, the Blackhawks have really turned things around by winning eight out of their last nine games. They're still a last place team mind you, but they are scoring in bunches and the last seven games have all gone Over the total. Chicago has scored at least three goals in 15 consecutive games! Columbus is a top 10 team in scoring and should have little difficulty finding the back of the net here. After being involved in two straight shutouts (1 W, 1 L), this should be a more competitive high scoring affair. The last time Columbus was shutout, they came back and won 4-3 their next game. Play OVER Columbus-Chicago AAA |
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02-16-19 | DePaul v. Butler -6.5 | Top | 78-91 | Win | 100 | 19 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on BUTLER Both DePaul and Butler are coming off losses. DePaul's was definitely worse, even though it came against a top 10 opponent. They were blown out by Marquette 92-73 at home. Butler lost by four at St. John's that same day (Tuesday). The Bulldogs are in much better position to rebound, even though they've lost four of six just like the Blue Demons. Butler won the first meeting, rather convincingly, exactly one month ago. It was an 87-69 game where they shot lights out. Interesting is that they won so handily on the road despite attempting just four free throws. DePaul remains pretty shaky on defense as they've only been favored twice in Big East play. Butler sees its scoring rise to 77.9 PPG at home and after watching them play three consecutive games decided by four points or less, this should be a far more comfortable result. They are simply the better team as they've already proven by winning 10 of the last 11 meetings. Play on BUTLER AAA |
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02-16-19 | Washington -7.5 v. Washington State | Top | 72-70 | Loss | -107 | 20 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on WASHINGTON Despite winning every conference game but one (their last one), Washington doesn't ever seem to get the respect that it deserves. That probably has to do with the fact the Pac 12 isn't very good this year. There's a good chance only one team from this league makes the NCAA Tournament. But presently, I don't think there's an argument that UW isn't the best team. They are head and shoulders above the rest defensively and tonight they'll face a rival that has been terrible most of this season. Washington State may have pulled off back to back upsets, winning at Arizona State (were +15.5) and Arizona (were +11.5), but before that the Cougs had lost every Pac 12 game but one. Washington is off their first conference loss here; 75-63 to Arizona State. But they've had a full week to recover. They'd gone 10-0 SU and ATS in conference play before that. That includes a 22-point win over Wazzu in Seattle. It shouldn't be much more difficult the second time around as I predict another double digit victory. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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02-16-19 | Iowa State +3 v. Kansas State | Top | 78-64 | Win | 100 | 16 h 32 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on IOWA STATE Iowa State invades Manhattan (Kansas, that is) for a game pitting two teams seemingly going in different directions. Kansas State has risen to the top of the Big 12 on the back of its outstanding defense. The Wildcats have won 9 of 10. Iowa State suffered an outright loss in its last game, falling 92-83 at home to TCU. But that game was exactly one week ago. The Cyclones have had more than enough time to prepare for this showdown where I believe they are the better team. I think it's instructive to note Kansas State wasn't even in the top 25 until this week. They certainly can be offensively challenged, even at home where they only average 63.8 points per game. Iowa State is the top offensive team in the conference and this will be just the fourth time they are a dog this season. They've covered two of the previous three times. The 'Clones also have a bit of revenge to exact as they lost at home to KSU, 58-57 (were -8.5) back on January 12th. Kansas State's only loss in the L10 games came out of conference, so they've beaten every Big 12 team. They won't beat Iowa State twice. Play on IOWA STATE AAA |