Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-25-22 | Golden Knights v. Sharks OVER 6.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 4 m | Show |
10* OVER Knights/Sharks (ASSASSIN) Vegas beat Toronto by a score of 3-1 last night, but I'm expecting a more wide-open affair here in the second game of the back-to-back. Fatigue won't be an issue at this point of the season for anyone, so look for the Knights to open things up here as they look to take advantage of this shaky Sharks defense. San Jose is just 2-6, but it comes in off a rare victory, a 3-0 shutout road win over the Flyers (but that's important to note here, as San Jose has seen the total go "over" the number in six of its last seven off a shutout road victory.) San Jose catches the Knights here at the right time. This is a difficult matchup for the Sharks, but a "tired" Las Vegas team on the second game of the back-to-back is about the best situation you could possibly hope for for San Jose. I expect both teams to light the lamp early and often; the play is the "over!" AAA Sports |
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10-25-22 | Penguins v. Flames -140 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 32 m | Show | |
8* Flames (SPECIAL) Sometimes I completely dissect a game, looking at many different factors and angles, but other times I keep it simple. KISS, keep it simple stupid! And that's the case here. There's no reason at all to overanalyze this one. Pittsburgh coes in fatigued here after a 6-3 loss in Edmonton just last night. The Flames have had two nights off after a confidence-building 3-2 OT win over Carolina. The Flames then have three whole nights off after this before another long stretch of home games. It's an ideal situational play here on Calgary, as I believe this line could/should in fact be much higher. The value here lies in laying the price; the play is Calgary! AAA Sports |
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10-25-22 | Mavs v. Pelicans UNDER 220.5 | Top | 111-113 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
10* Mavs/Pels UNDER (SOUTHWEST DIVISION TOY) Both of these teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to start going the other way in this early divisional matchup. Dallas is 1-1 and is favored in this one. It's coming off an impressive 137-96 win over the Grizzlies. I expect the Mavs to keep up the aggressive defensive pressure here vs. the Pels. New Orleans is 2-1 and coming off a tiring 122-121 OT loss here at home to the Jazz a 8.5 point favorites. That total went "over" the number, because the game went to OT. The Pelicans have seen the total go "over" the number in all three games they've played in this season, which is significant to note here in our case as New Orleans has in fact seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 12 after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. A great situational play early in the season, the play here is indeed on the "under!" AAA Sports |
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10-24-22 | Hurricanes v. Canucks +1.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 55 m | Show | |
8* Canucks PUCKLINE (DESTRUCTION) If we looked only at the early offensive and defensive numbers with these two teams, then it's easy to see when Carolina is a big favorite on the road here. Vancouver has had the lead in every game it's played in so far this season, but it enters now desperate to snap its 0-4-2 start. The Canes are 3-1-1. Carolina lost 3-2 in OT at Calgary in its last game, and I'm expecting a similar style of tight battle here on the West Coast as well. The Canes have three whole nights off after this and return home, so this is a natural "look ahead" spot. Vanouver is off the humbling 5-1 home loss to the Sabres. I don't think the Canucks are as bad as they've shown in the early going; while the outright win is possible, I'll lay the larger price here for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance; a great situatinal play on the Canucks on the puckline option! AAA Sports |
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10-24-22 | Bears +9 v. Patriots | Top | 33-14 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
10* BEARS (BLOOD-BATH) Both teams could really use a victory here. Will the Patriots go up early, and then keep the foot on the gas from start to finish? I say no way. I think this game will be decided in the trenches, and by field position. Running and protecting the ball. The Bears are 2-4 and the Patriots are 3-3. It's all hands on deck for Chicago after three straight losses. New England has looked great over the last two weeks, but I think it'll come out flat here after last week's 38-15 victory at Cleveland. So far the Bears are only averaging 15.5 PPG, but they'll have to open up the playbook here and be the aggressors. Justin Fields has 869 passing yards, four TD's and five INT's. The defense for the Bears is ranked 11th, allowing 19.7. New England allows 18.8, while averaging 23.5 of its own. Bailey Zappe has filled in for Mac Jones admirably, but the starter will likely be back under center tonight. Whoever is under center, I expect conservative game calling from Bellichick this evening. I say Chicago throws its best shot and while that may not be good enough to win this game outright, it'll be more than enough to comfortably cover with the large spread that it's been afforded in this one; grab the points, the play is Da Bears! AAA Sports |
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10-24-22 | Pacers v. 76ers -11.5 | Top | 106-120 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the 76ers. The Pacers are 1-2 and the 76ers are 0-2. Neither team has gotten out to a great start, but I look for the 76ers to put the foot on the gas from start to finish in this favorable matchup. The Pacers are off a 124-115 home win over Detroit on Saturday, but I believe they'll stumble here in the opener of this difficult five game road trip. Mostly more than anything, I absolutely expect the 76ers to come out fired up here after two lacklustre games to open the season. The good news is that James Harden looks locked in early for Philly. This is a matchup that favors Joel Embiid and the home side and I expect them to take advantage; lay the points, because I look for the 76ers to win in blowout fashion! AAA Sports |
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10-23-22 | Suns +2.5 v. Clippers | Top | 112-95 | Win | 100 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
10* Suns (BLOOD-BATH) The Suns are 1-1 and the Clippers are 2-0. Phoenix most recently fell 113-111 at Portland in OT as a five-point favorite on Friday night. The Clippers came away with the tight 111-109 road win over the Kings just last night, and I believe they'll be fatigued here in the second game of the back-to-back. Phoenix actually had to erase a 17-point halftime deficit in the loss to the Blazers, but just couldn't get the job done in the end. But with a couple games under their belts, and here facing the undefeated Clippers, I expect Phoenix to be at its best this evening. LA though could very likely rest some of its key players here in the B2B scenario. While I clearly think the outright win is a possibility, the official call will be to grab as many points as you can; the play is Phoenix! AAA Sports |
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10-23-22 | Jets v. Broncos +2 | Top | 16-9 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 15 m | Show |
10* BRONCOS (BLOCKBUSTER) The Jets are not only 4-2 ATS, but they're also 4-2 SU. New York is off an epic 27-10 road win at Green Bay, but I believe it'll have a predictable step back this weekend in Denver. Russell Wilson is out for the Broncos, which is a GREAT thing in my estimation. The pivot has struggled with his new team, and now enters Brett Rypien, who will be given the green light here. The Broncos are still excelling on the defensive side of the ball, allowing just 16.5 PPG. I say that Zach Wilson and the Jets finally stumble here; grab the points, the play is Denver! AAA Sports |
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10-23-22 | Padres v. Phillies -134 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
10* PHILLIES (ASSASSIN) With a chance to close out this series and head to the World Series, I like Zach Wheeler and the Phillies to dig deep here and deliver the goods. Yu Darvish is 2-1 with a 2.84 ERA in the playoffs, while Wheeler is 1-1 with a 1.40 ERA. "Very excited. Obviously been pitching on the road, but I'm very excited to pitch here in front of these fans," Wheeler said. "They're happy, they're hungry, and they're excited. So it's going to be a lot of fun." Honestly, these starters are evenly matched, but I'll give the slight nod to Wheeler because of the home field advantage. And right now during the playoffs, that's going to be the difference-maker today. This crowd is going to be electric and I expect Philadelphia to ride the wave of emotion; lay the price with confidence, the play is the Phillies! AAA Sports |
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10-23-22 | Packers v. Washington Commanders +5.5 | Top | 21-23 | Win | 100 | 20 h 22 m | Show |
10* COMMANDERS (ASSASSIN) I think the Packers on the road is the incorrect call here. The Jets demolished Green Bay by a score of 27-10 last weekend, and I think that Taylor Heinickie and the home side can take advantage as well. Green Bay is just 3-3 now. Washington is 2-4 after its 12-7 win at Chicago last weekend. The offense has been inconsistent for Washington, but the defense has been its strength. Aaron Rodgers has struggled against defenses like this already and I think he'll be on the run once again this Sunday afternoon. I don't think the Giants or Jets are even that good. Certainly their defenses aren't. Green Bay is averaging only 17.3 PPG. Here's Heinickie about stepping in for Carson Wentz: "Starting 15 games last year, I feel a lot more comfortable, a lot more confident in what I need to do to win and what not to do to lose.” The majority of bets are on Green Bay, but the majority of the money is on Washington; lets follow the sharp money in this one! AAA Sports |
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10-23-22 | Colts +2.5 v. Titans | Top | 10-19 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
10* COLTS (ASSASSIN) Divisional contests are always the most important, and they almost always "mean more" to the home side. Every now and then there's an exception to that "rule" though and that's the case here today in my opinion. Both teams have battled back from shaky starts and enter at 3-2. Indianapolis enters off a 34-27 win over Jacksonville. The Titans barely held on for a tight 21-17 victory over Washington. So far the Colts are averaging 17.2 PPG, while allowing 20.2, while Tennessee is averaging 19.2 PPG, and allowing 23.6. These teams are almost identical in every way, but I'd argue that the Colts have looked a lot better over the last two outings. Especially their offense. Indianapolis lost to Tennessee 24-17 in Week 4 and I expect the revenge factor to play a crucial part here as well; while I clearly believe the outright win is possible, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can with the Colts! AAA Sports |
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10-23-22 | Giants v. Jaguars -3 | Top | 23-17 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 53 m | Show |
10* Jaguars (ASSASSIN) The bookmakers are just begging people to take the Giants here. The vast majority of the bets are on New York, but I'm going the other way here and predicting that that desperate home side will not only win, but win big. I also expect a letdown here finally from the over-acheiving Giants who enter at 5-1, fresh off an upset win at home over Baltimore. The Giants will have to be careful to not get caught looking ahead here to their game at Seattle next week. At 2-4 the Jaguars simply NEED to win this game. Jacksonville actually enters off three straight losses. Trevor Lawrence could easily have a winning record right now if not for an unlucky bounce here or there. This is do or die for the home side and I expect that to the be the difference-maker; lay the points, the play is Jacksonville! AAA Sports |
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10-23-22 | Browns +7 v. Ravens | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 19 h 19 m | Show | |
8* Browns (DESTRUCTION) It's true that divisional contest always mean the most. And for the most part, those games MEAN the most to the home side. There are exceptions to that rule every now and then though, and this is one of them. Both of these teams are in dire need of a win, but Cleveland more so at 2-4. Baltimore is 3-3. The Browns are off a 38-15 loss at home to a surging New England team, but they always matchup well aaainst the Ravens. It's a crucial part of the season for the Browns, who have a tough home game vs. division rival Cincinnati next week. Baltimore has more questions than answers right now after last week's 24-20 collapse as a 5.5-point favorite. To make matters worse for the Ravens, they have a short turnaround this week with a Thursday night game at Tampa Bay, followed by a road contest at New Orleans. I think the Browns' run game keeps them in this one; grab the points, the play is Cleveland! AAA Sports |
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10-22-22 | Washington v. California UNDER 54.5 | Top | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 34 h 28 m | Show |
10* UNDER Washington/Cal (ASSASSIN) Washington has seen the total go "over" the number in all seven of its games this season, inlcuding in its 49-39 win over Arizona last weekend. The Huskies are averaging 42.1 PPG, but I think that they'll finally come back down to Earth here vs. 3-3 Cal. Washington is 5-2 and on the cusp of eligibility. The Golden Bears are off a 20-13 loss to Colorado. Cal plays with "revenge" here, as Washington has won seven of the last ten in this series. Washington's defense is pretty good, allowing just 28.6 PPG. The Bears are even better though, conceding just 21.7 PPG. The "under" is 4-1 in the last five Bears games overall, and it's also 4-1 in the Bears last five following an ATS loss. Look for a much tigher, and ultimately lower-scoring "under" once the smoke finally clears form this one! AAA Sports |
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10-22-22 | Clippers v. Kings +3.5 | Top | 111-109 | Win | 100 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
10* Kings (ASSASSIN) I think this is a great "situational" play on the Kings. Sacramento lost its opener 115-108 as a 3-point favorite at home to Portland, but I think it bounces back here. The Clippers are off a satisfying 103-97 win over the Lakers in their opener, but with a home game against the Suns tomorrow night, I believe they'll classically get caught "looking ahead" to that one. LA has a great roster, but stars Paul George and Kawhi Leonard will be used sparingly at the start of the season, after each comes back from a signficant injury. D'Aaron Fox and Damontas Sabonis are the correct call here at home. Mike Brown didn't play his starters a lot in the season opening loss, but we can expect a heavy dose today; while the outright win is clearly not out of the question, let's grab the points, the play is Sacramento! AAA Sports |
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10-22-22 | Utah State +5 v. Wyoming | 14-28 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 58 m | Show | |
8* Utah State (SPECIAL) Utah State is 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS, while Wyoming if 4-3 SU/ATS. In a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'll recommend grabbing as many points as you can. The Aggies come in with some momentum, first they beat Air Force 34-27 two weeks ago, then it beat Colorado State 17-13 last weekend. Utah State's offensive and defensive numbers are somewhat skewed after a few early blowouts. The Aggies average 19.9 PPG, and allow 31.7. Wyoming is off a 27-14 road win over New Mexico as a 3-point favorite. Wyoming only averages 23.3 PPG, while allowing 387 yards of offense per contest. Utah State's ground game is firing on all cylinders and its defense just held Colorado State to just 13 points. While the outright win isn't out of the question, the official call will be to grab as many points as you can with the Aggies! AAA Sports |
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10-22-22 | Padres v. Phillies -105 | Top | 6-10 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
10* Phillies (BLOOD-BATH) Momentum is a very real, almost "tangible" factor in sports, and that's especially true in the playoffs. I often find that the oddsmakers have a hard time properly quantifying this factor into their process, and that's DEFINITELY the case here in Game 4 in my professional opinion. Despite Bailey Falter having not thrown since October 5th, I still think he has an advantage here over his counterpart Mike Clevinger. Falter went 6-4 with a 3.86 ERA in the regular season. He tossed one scoreless inning vs. the Astros back on October 5th. Clevinger was 7-7 with a 4.33 ERA during the regular seaosn and he's 0-1 with a 13.50 ERA in the playoffs (gave up six hits and five runs over two innings to the Dodgers in his only start.) Even Bob Melvin has his doubts: "We'll see how it goes, take it batter to batter," Melvin said of his starting pitcher tonight. A great price on the surging home side here, so lay the short juice, because the play is indeed on the Phillies! AAA Sports |
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10-22-22 | Boston College +21 v. Wake Forest | Top | 15-43 | Loss | -110 | 127 h 21 m | Show |
10* BOSTON COLLEGE (ACC GOY) BC is 2-4 and Wake is 5-1. I think the Eagles will keep this one much tighter though than what this spread is suggesting. BC has lost five of its last six on the road, but QB Phil Jurkovec keeps his team competitive. He has 1,335 passing yards, ten touchdowns and six interceptions. The defense is allowing 29 points and 371.7 yards per game. Wake Forest comes in confident after winning 12 of its last 13 at home. After going up early though, I can't see the Demon Deacons keeping the foot on the gas in the second half with a road game at Louisville up next. Sam Hartman has been great, he has 1,442 passing yards, 16 touchdowns and only two INT's. The weakness though comes on the defensive end though, and that's where I like Jurkovec this weekend. Wake allows 25.5 PPG and 385.3 yards overall. BC has faced a tough schedule to this point. Its numbers are a bit skewed. Am I suggesting that BC will win this game outright somehow?! Of course not, but as I've outlined, the stage is definitely set for a tighter battle than most would expect; grab the points, the play is Boston College! AAA Sports |
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10-21-22 | Nuggets +5 v. Warriors | Top | 128-123 | Win | 100 | 32 h 36 m | Show |
10* NUGGETS (BOB) I like Denver to bounce back after its poor 123-102 road loss at Utah as a 6.5 point favorite. Look for the Nuggets to make the necessary adjustments to be much more competitive vs. the defending champs. I think the Nuggets got caught "looking ahead" to this Friday game. Golden State won and covered over the Lakers in their opener. When Denver gave up fewer than 111.0 points last season, it went 25-17 against the spread and 31-11 overall. Last season, Golden State had the league’s 15th-ranked scoring team (111.0 PPG), while Denver had the 14th-ranked defense in terms of points per game (110.4). Look for a very tight and competitive game, one that's decided in the final moments; grab the points, the play is Denver! AAA Sports |
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10-21-22 | Red Wings v. Blackhawks UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
10* UNDER Wings/Hawks (BLOWOUT) These teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening. Detroit is off a 5-4 OT loss at home to the Kings, but with three whole nights off between games, I expect the visiting side to double down on the defensive end this evening. The Wings are 2-0-1 and have a big opportunity to build on their record facing the 1-2 Blackhawks. Chicago has been off for five whole days after a 5-2 win at San Jose. Chicago lost its first two games, but returns home for the first game of the season. The Wings have two decent goaltenders in Alex Nedeljkovic and Ville Husso. Petr Mrazek and Alex Stalock share duties for Chicago. They catch a break here facing this Wings' offense. These are two teams in need of a win at the start of the season and I expect this competitive atmosphere to translate into more of a defensive affair; the play is the "under!" AAA Sports |
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10-21-22 | Jazz v. Wolves -8 | 132-126 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 12 m | Show | |
8* Wolves (DESTRUCTION) I like to watch the first two weeks of action before really unloading in the NBA. In fact, that's the case for the NBA, College hoops and the NHL as well. To begin with at the start of the season, I like to be contrarian. If the majority of the public goes one way, I'll more than likely go the other. I also look for what I deem to be really great "situational" plays. And in my opinion, this is a great early season situational play. The Jazz are off the upset 123-102 home win over Denver as a 6.5-point underdog, but I expect a predictable letdown here on the road. Minnesota beat OKC by a score of 115-108 in its Opener, but it did not cover the big 11-point spread. Tonight's spread is much more manageable and I believe the deeper home side will indeed keep the foot on the gas from start to finish in this one; lay the points, the play is Minnesota! AAA Sports |
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10-21-22 | UAB +2 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 1 m | Show |
10* UAB (ASSASSIN) UAB is 4-2, most recently off the 34-20 win over Charlotte. Dylan Hopkins had 231 yards, a TD and an INT. They average 34.5 PPG, while allowing just 17.3. DeWayne McBride has been unstoppable on the ground so far with 778 yards and 11 rushing TD's thus far. WKU is 4-3 and off a 35-17 road win over MTSU. Austin Reed went 32 of 49 for 278 yards, two TD's and an INT. It averages 40.4 PPG, while allowing 22.7. WKU has played the weaker competition to this point, and its offensive and defensive numbers have to be called into question with a 73-0 win over FIU in Week 3. I think UAB is the better overall team. Definitely its defense is. Look for the BLAZERS to, at the very least, deliver with the ATS cover. AAA Sports |
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10-21-22 | Padres v. Phillies +100 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 29 h 23 m | Show | |
8* PHILLIES (BLOOD-BATH) I had a play on Philadelphia in Game 1, but I passed in Game 2. For Game 3, I'm back on Philly. The Padres evened the series at 1-1 with an 8-5 win in Game 2. Philadelphia actually had a four-run lead in Game 2, but wound up losing. I'd call these starting pitchers a "wash." The Padres hand the ball to Joe Musgrove, who is 1-0 with a 1.38 ERA in the postseason, while Ranger Suarez is 0-0 with a 2.70 ERA for the Phillies. In his only start against the Friars this year Suarez gave up just two runs over eight innings and struck out ten. I like Suarez at home and I believe the Phillies will rally at home after the Game 2 loss. All things considered, I believe this to be the very definition of "great line value;" the play is Philadelphia! AAA Sports |
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10-20-22 | Saints +2.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 34-42 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
10* SAINTS (GOW) The Cardinals have lost four of their last six overall, and three straight at home. They're averaging less than 20 PPG. Their run game is "OK," but they lack a passing offense with Murray as QB. DeAndre Hopkins does return from suspension this week, but I don't think he'll make much of an impact having sit out the last six weeks. New Orleans has been strong against the pass, allowing less than 200 yards per game through the air while on the road. That turns Arizona really one-dimensional still. New Orleans on the other hand has averaged over 150 rushing yards per game. In a game that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'll recommend grabbing the points! AAA Sports |
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10-20-22 | Canucks +1.5 v. Wild | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
10* Canucks PUCKLINE (ASSASSIN) A couple of 0-3 teams collide here. Vancouver has had a two-goals lead in every game its played in so far, but it comes to town winless still. The Wild are most recently off a 6-3 loss to the Avs. Both teams have received suspect goaltending, but I still like Thatcher Demko in this spot for the Canucks, he's 0-3-0 with a 4.48 GAA. Minnesota goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury is 0-1-- with an 8.37 GAA. Vancouver could easily be 4-0 right now, except for some brutal mental lapses. I believe Vancouver plays a full three periods today though and while the outright win isn't out of the question, the official call wil be to lay the price for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance; the play is Minnesota on the puckline option! AAA Sports |
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10-20-22 | Bucks v. 76ers -3.5 | Top | 90-88 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
10* 76ers (NON-DIV GOM) I like the way this one sets up at home for the 76ers. I believe they'll pull away for a double-digit victory right at the end. The Bucks were decent last year. They averaged 113.9 PPG< and allowed 110.7. The 76ers lost on the road to Boston, but an immediate return to the winner's circle will be in order here. The Bucks will be without Khris Middleton and Pat Connaughton to open the season. Milwaukee was bad defensively on the road last year, allowing more than 111 PPG. Look for Philly to pull away down the stretch! AAA Sports |
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10-19-22 | Pelicans +3 v. Nets | Top | 130-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
10* Pelicans (ASSASSIN) With the majority of the money and the wagers on Brooklyn, I feel we're getting great value here on Zion Williamson and the Pelicans. This Pels team is legit with CJ McCollum, Jonas Valanciunas and Ingram. The Nets were eliminated by the Celtics in the Playoffs, but they also had a tumultuous season. KD is back, and so is Kyrie Irving. Brooklyn has an entirely new line-up though, and I think much like the Lakers unfortunately, they're going to have difficulties with chemistry in the early going. New Orleans is the better, deeper team on paper. The Slim Reaper and Kyrie are probably the two best players on the floor still, but I don't think it'll be enough with McCollum directing the show for New Orleans. Clearly I feel the outright win is possible, but in the end let's grab the points; the play is the Pelicans! AAA Sports |
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10-18-22 | Lakers +6.5 v. Warriors | 109-123 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 17 m | Show | |
8* LAKERS (DESTRUCTION) LA won only 33 games last year. A dysfunctional line-up and injuries were to blame. LA added Patrick Beverly, Dennis Schroeder, Lonnie Walker, Thomas Bryant, and Dwayne Bacon. Darvin Ham is the new head coach and he'll bring a much needed sense of toughness to the team. One big thing this year working in LA's favor is that big man Anthony Davis appears to be back to 100% health. He was injured most of last year. The Warriors won the Championship and could be in for a bit of a letdown this year. They enter the new season with plenty of controversy as well after Draymond Green puched Jordan Poole in the face in practice a couple of weeks ago and knocked him out cold. It's all hands on deck for LBJ, Ham and the rest of the Lakers on Opening night. Look for this one to come down to the wire and grab the points! AAA Sports |
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10-18-22 | Phillies +116 v. Padres | Top | 2-0 | Win | 116 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
10* Phillies (NLCS GOY) These teams are similar in many regards, but I think the Phillies offer great value here as a small underdog. Zach Wheeler is 0-1 with a 2.19 ERA so far in the playoffs. He was 12-7 witha 2.82 ERA in the regular season. The Padres' Yu Darvish is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA in the post-season and he went 16-8 with a 3.10 ERA in the regular season. Both pitchers have had plenty of success against their opponent today in the past. Philadelphia's improved bullpen play, combined with their impressive offense in the postseason makes the visitors the correct call here in Game 1 in my opinion; the play is Philadelphia! AAA Sports |
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10-18-22 | Ducks +1.5 v. Devils | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -159 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
10* Ducks PUCKLINE (NON-CONF. GOM) I think that Anaheim offers great value here on the puckline option. The Ducks are 1-2. They're off a 6-4 loss at New York last night. Typically I avoid playing on teams who are playing the second game of a back-to-back, but that factor doesn't actually become something I worry about until after the first month of play. These professional athletes are good to go right now and I'd argue that working out all the "bugs" last night, will only help the Ducks improve this evening. Anthony Stolarz will get the call in net for the visiting side, returning to play in his hometown. He's played 63 games and owns a sharp 2.75 GAA. New Jersey has the worst offense in the NHL. That's in part to several key injuries. They're just 1-6 on the power play. Mackenzie Blackwood let in four goals on 24 shots in the Devils' loss to the Flyers and I think he'll have his hands full today as well; lay the price, the play is Anaheim on the puckline! AAA Sports |
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10-17-22 | Broncos +4.5 v. Chargers | Top | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 35 h 18 m | Show |
10* BRONCOS (AFC WEST GOY) Denver is 2-3 and LA is 3-2. Clearly this is a big game for each team. Neither side has lived up to the offseasno expectations. Especially Denver. Russell Wilson signed a nearly $250 million dollar contract and his performance to this point has been very weak. The veteran will be out to reverse his fortunes here against Christian Herbert and the Chargers. So far Denver is only averaging 15 PPG, but making up for it on the other side by allowing just 16. The Chargers enter having won two straight. The Chargers score 24.4 PPG, but they've struggled defensively, conceding 27.2. That's music to Wilson's ears finally. LA routinely plays down to the level of its competition. It's hard to imagine that Wilson has fallen off his skill set this quickly. I expect to see his best game of the season so far and while I do think an outright win is possible, in the end I'll recommend to grab the points; the play is Denver! AAA Sports |
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10-17-22 | Avalanche v. Wild UNDER 6.5 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -120 | 35 h 30 m | Show |
10* UNDER Avs/Wild (CENTRAL DIVISION TOY) The stars and the planets have aligned here for an early season play of this magnitude. Colorado is 1-1. It beat Chicago 5-2 in its Opener, and then fell 5-3 at Calgary. Both games have gone "over" the number. Minnesota will be desperate here, as it enters at 0-2. It lost 7-3 at home to the Rangers, and then 7-6 here to the Kings just last night. I expect Minnesota to risk life and limb today to try and get into shooting and passing lanes tonight as it tries to get the monkey off its back. Both teams have good starting goaltenders and backups, but neither has received very good play from those units yet. Yet, though is the word we need to concentrate on here. As I eluded to off the top, this is a great "situational" play, so whoever gets the start in net tonight, I believe the numbers and the overall situation point to a very tight defensive affair in this one; the play is the "under!" AAA Sports |
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10-16-22 | Cowboys v. Eagles OVER 43.5 | Top | 17-26 | Loss | -110 | 155 h 7 m | Show |
10* OVER Cowboys/Eagles (NFC EAST TOY) Scoring is down so far in NFL Prime Time games. Last Sunday's 19-17 win for Baltimore over Cincinnati was no exception. But I expect this lop-sided trend to start correcting itself finally here in Week 6. The Eagles are off a tight, but low-scoring 20-17 win over Arizona, while Dallas pulled away for the 22-10 win over the defending champs on their own field. Tony Pollard had a 57 yard TD run and Cooper Rush looked "OK" with 102 yards in the Cowboys' win. The Dallas defense looked good, but that was against a pathetic Rams offense, which was missing three starters on the offensive line. Now they have to travel on the road again here and I think the unit will struggle to contain this confident Eagles team. Jalen Hurts had difficulty moving the ball on the road, but I think he'll have a much easier time at home in this important divisional contest. Look for a wide-open offensive affair this weekend in Philadelphia, one that flies well "over" the posted number! AAA Sports |
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10-16-22 | Bills v. Chiefs +3 | 24-20 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
9* CHIEFS (ASSASSIN) I'm going to grab the points and expect a battle until the final moments. The Chiefs ended the Bills season last year. They were up by a field goal with less than a minute left, but Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs ended up winning in OT in last year's playoffs. Buffalo enters at 4-1. It comes in off the 38-3 win over Pittsburgh. The Bills average 30.1 PPG, and they have the second ranked defense, giving up 12.2 PPG. The Chiefs average 31.8 PPG, while allowing 25. KC has been involved in a couple shootouts, so its defensive numbers are a tiny bit skewed in my opinion. This is a difficult matchup for Josh Allen and the Bills. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points; the play is Kansas City! AAA Sports |
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10-16-22 | Cardinals v. Seahawks +3 | 9-19 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
8* Seahawks (SPECIAL) Divisional matchups are always the most important and they almost always mean the most to the home side. Arizona and Seattle are both 2-3 SU. The Cards are 2-0 SU/ATS on the road, but I think they'll finally stumble here in this difficult road venue. The Cardinals are coming off a disappointing loss to the Eagles last week. Kyler Murray has 1,241 passing yards and six passing TD's while also rushing for 133 and two more TD's. DeAndre Hopkins will return next week. The Seahawks fell 39-32 in New Orleans last week. Geno Smith has 1,305 passing yards, nine passing TDs' and only two INT's. Tyler Lockett has 406 yards receiving and two TD's. Neither team can afford to lose this game. I like Seattle too, at the very least, keep this one tight till the very end; grab the points! AAA Sports |
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10-15-22 | Blue Jackets +1.5 v. Blues | 2-5 | Loss | -130 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
8* JACKETS puckline (SPECIAL) Columbus is 0-2 now after last night's 5-2 loss at home to the Lightning. They'll be eager to avoid the 0-3 hole here. Playing the second game of a back-to-back is normally a difficult thing, but not in this case. The season has just started and these athletes are in supreme shape. In fact, I'll argue that with those two games now under their belts, the Blue Jackets can feel confident moving forward that they've worked out a few issues. St. Louis on the other hand has been off for an entire week since its last pre-season contest. St. Louis has a few key players starting the season on the IL as well, so that doesn't bode well. I think an outright upset is a possibility, but in the end the value here lies with grabbing the visiting side on the puckline option! AAA Sports |
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10-15-22 | New Mexico v. New Mexico State +7 | 9-21 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show | |
8* New Mexico State (BLOWOUT) This is the 112th version of the Rio Grande Rivalry, and while I'll stop short in calling for an outright upset, I think we're going to see a tight battle until the final whistle. New Mexico is off a 27-14 home loss to Wyoming last weekend nad it's now lost two in a row. New Mexico State lost 21-7 to FIU two weeks ago, and it comes in focussed after its bye week. The Lobos average 259.7 yards per game on offense. The Lobos defense has been better though in allowing 22.8 PPG. The Aggies have been conceding 32.2 PPG in the early going. New Mexico State beat Hawaii 45-26 at home, but it's also been shutout twice. That won't be the case here today though at home, as I think the week off to prepare will be advantageous. New Mexico has won three straight in this series, and it may win a fourth as well. But it won't be easy. Grab the points, the play is New Mexico State! AAA Sports |
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10-15-22 | Northern Illinois v. Eastern Michigan UNDER 66 | Top | 39-10 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
10* UNDER NIU/EMU (MAC TOM) NIU is just 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS. It's seen the total go "over" the number in all six of its games that it's played in this season. EMU is 4-2 SU and 2-4 ATS, and it's seen the total go "over" the number in four of its six games this year, including in its 45-23 road win at WMU last week. Both teams have been playing to many high-scoring games this season, hence the large O/U line we have attached to this one. But I expect a more defensive affair. NIU is off a 52-32 loss to Toledo, but it's seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 after allowing 50 or more points in a SU/ATS loss in its previous outing. EMU is very similar in that it has a good offense, and weak defense. These facts though have only helped in driving today's O/U line a few points higher than it normally would/should be. Expect a little more running, a little more defense and for this total to sneak "under" the number once the final whistle sounds! AAA Sports |
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10-15-22 | Braves v. Phillies +113 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 113 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
10* PHILLIES (ASSASSIN) I had a play on the Phillies yesterday in their 9-1 victory. Momentum is a very real, almost "tangible" factor in sports. And that's definitely the case in the playoffs. I've often found that oddsmakers have a hard time properly quantifying that factor into their process, and that's definitely the case here in my opinion. Charlie Morton finished 9-6 with a 4.34 ERA for the Braves, while Noah Syndergaard was 10-10 with a 3.94 ERA. Syndergaard pitched one scoreless inning in relief in Game 2 in ATL and he's 2-1 with a 3.33 ERA in six career playoff appearances. Morton is 4-0 with a 0.95 ERA in playoff elimination games. However, that was then and this is now. Morton gave up 18 hits and ten runs over his final three regular-season starts. Look for Syndergaard and the Phillies to ride the wave of emotion at home to another series victory! AAA Sports |
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10-15-22 | Kansas v. Oklahoma -7 | Top | 42-52 | Win | 100 | 123 h 23 m | Show |
10* Oklahoma (BIG 12 GOY) Kansas is 5-1 and Oklahoma is 3-3 coming into this Week 7 Big 12 matchup. With a date at Baylor next week, the Jayhawks could be caught "looking ahead" here. Kansas is coming off a 38-31 home loss to TCU and I think will struggle again here after losing starting QB Jalon Daniels to injury in the setback. Oklahoma on the other hand is coming off one of the worst and most humbling losses of all time in its 49-0 setback at home to Texas. Despite that though, the Sooners are still ranked 64th in the country in scoring with 30.8 PPG. They were without starting QB Dillon Gabriel for that one. He'll likely be back for this one, but even if he's not, I think the Sooners can take advantage and rally from last week's embarrassing effort. Nick Evers got a chance finally after his team was down by 40 points, and he looked a lot better than Davis Beville. Yes Oklahoma looked terrible last week, but let's not overreact. It's now time for the Sooners to react and I think they can bounce back and take care of business aginast a Kansas team off its first loss and down to its back up QB; lay the points, the play is Oklahoma! AAA Sports |
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10-14-22 | UTSA -33 v. Florida International | Top | 30-10 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
10* UTSA (ASSASSIN) UTSA is a massive favorite here. It comes to FIU at 4-2, while the Panthers come into this game at 2-3. UTSA most recently comes in off a tight 31-28 home win over Western Kentucky, unable to cover the 6.5 points. The Roadrunners were outscored 14-7 in the final quarter, but they managed to hold on for the victory. Quarterback Frank Harris had 273 yards and one touchdow, while Brenden Brady had 83 rushing yards and a touchdown. Texas San Antonio is 2-1 on the road, and so the big question here is: can the Roadrunners cover this massive spread on the road and on the short week? Florida International could struggle to keep pace with the high-flying visiting side. The Panthers are coming off a 33-12 home loss to UConn as 5.5-point underdogs. The Panthers were down 20-0 at half time and were never able to recover. Quarterback Grayson James had 256 passing yards, but also two interceptions. The lone bright spot was running back Lexington Joseph, who had 103 yards and a touchdown. Now, UTSA did allow 481 yards and 26 first downs to Western Kentucky last weekend, but it posted 486 yards and 30 first downs of its own. Besides, Western Kentucky averages 40.8 points per game, while Florida International averages 16.6; lay the points, the play is UTSA! AAA Sports |
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10-14-22 | Lightning v. Blue Jackets +1.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -164 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
10* Blue Jackets PUCKLINE (BOB) Tampa fell 3-1 at New York in its opener, and I think the Lightning are going to have their hands full again here on the road vs. the hungry Blue Jackets. Columbus enters off a 4-1 loss at Carolina to open its season. Andrei Vasilevskiy made 36 saves in the loss to the Rangers, while Daniil Tarasov made 39 saves in the loss to Carolina. Elvis Merzilikins was sick for the Opener, but he could be back in net for the Jackets here, he finished 27-23-7 with a 3.22 GAA last year for Columbus. Either way, I feel that Tampa is in store for regression this season. This is a big home game opener for the Jackets and in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extra time, I'm going to indeed grab them on the puckline option! AAA Sports |
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10-14-22 | Braves v. Phillies -115 | Top | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
10* NLDS GAME OF YEAR on the Phillies. Philadelphia accomplished what it set out to do in Atlanta, and that was to earn a split. This is Philadelphia's first home game so far during the playoffs, having to win two straight in St. Louis to advance. The Phillies look solid and I say they bounce back after their 3-0 loss in Game 2 (note that the Phillies are 7-2 in their last nine in trying to avenge a shutout road loss against an opponent.) The home side goes with Aaron Nola, who finished 11-13 with a 3.25 ERA this season. He is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA after going seven scoreless vs. the Cards in the Wildcard: "We can't wait for it," Nola said of Game 3. "It's going to be electric. It's something special." The Braves could be going with Charlie Morton, who finished 9-6 with a 4.34 ERA, or Spencer Strider, who finished 11-5 with a 2.67 ERA. Whoever they go with, I give the big nod to a confident Nola at home. In my professional opinion, this is the very definition of "great line value." The play is Philly! AAA Sports |
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10-13-22 | Washington Commanders v. Bears OVER 37.5 | Top | 12-7 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
10* OVER (NON DIV TOY) Yes, these two teams have been terrible. Yes, there have been plenty of "unders" in Prime Time NFL games this year. But I believe that tonight's total is now a bit TOO low. These teams, and these two starting quarterbacks, are dying for a breakout performance. It would be easy to look at their past stats and base our prediction on tonight's game upon those results, but the situation here has shifted the value to the higher number in my opinion. The Bears struggle against good passing teams, and Carson Wentz and the Commanders will be able to move the ball. With the home side having keep pace, we can expect this total to fly "over" the number sooner, rather than later! AAA Sports |
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10-13-22 | Rangers v. Wild -134 | 7-3 | Loss | -134 | 12 h 10 m | Show | |
8* WILD (DESTROYER) The Rangers have a tough game at Winnipeg tomorrow night and I expect them to get caught looking ahead to that one. The Rangers feel super content after beating the Lightning 3-1 on Opening night. Minnesota finished second in its division last year. It was great offensively, and decent defensively. Marc-Andre Fleury went 9-2-0 with a 2.74 GAA for the Wild last year. Minnesota is 6-2 the last 8 in this series and I expect that strong run to continue here on Opening Night. Lay the price, the play is the Wild! AAA Sports |
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10-13-22 | Capitals v. Maple Leafs UNDER 6.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 116 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
10* UNDER (EASTERN CONFERENCE NON-DIVISIONAL TOM) Here's a great situational play we can take advantage of right out of the gate. We don't need to overthink this one at all. Throw out the stats from last year, and throw out the stats from each team's game las tnight. The Capitals lost 5-2 at home to Boston (the total soaring "over" the number of 6), while the Leafs fell 4-3 at Montreal. Each of these team's is favored to be among the best of the best once the season ends, so clearly neither can be happy with they way it performed last night. I expect each to be tired here, and I believe each'll double down on the defensive end. As I say, no need to overthink this one. Fatigue plays a major factor in this one and helps in driving this total "under" the number once the final horn blares! AAA Sports |
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10-13-22 | Temple v. Central Florida OVER 46 | Top | 13-70 | Win | 100 | 83 h 50 m | Show |
10* OVER Temple/UCF (TOW) The UCF Knights are 4-1 and the Temple Owls are 2-3. UCF has the 43rd ranked defense, allowing 347.2 yards per game. UCF has been even better offensively though, averaging 481.8 yards per game on offense. Temple is only averaging 282.8 yards per game while on offense the Owls only average 15 PPG. UCF put up 41 points on SMU at home here last week and despite how well the Owls have played defensively to this point, I think they'll struggle here in this difficult road venue. That said, look for Temple to open things up offensively here as well as it tries to keep pace. Considering all of the above situational information, I definitely feel that Friday's O/U line is low; the play is the "over!" AAA Sports |
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10-13-22 | Mariners v. Astros -147 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
8* ASTROS (SPECIAL) Houston took the first game by a score of 8-7. The Mariners allowed five runs over the 8th and 9th inning to lose by 1. They put in Robbie Ray to close out Game 1 and he served up a three run home run instead. As good as Luis Castillo has been for Seattle this season, and in their Wild Card win over the Jays, I believe he and the visiting side are in over their heads now in this game, and in this series. The Mariners had the Astros on the ropes and would have been in the drivers seat, but the meltdown over the final two innings is going to be a massive mental hurdle which I just don't see this team being able to get over quickly enough. And that's the window of opportunity and momentum that this No. 1 AL leading Houston team needs. All things considered, I believe this line could/should in fact be much larger. I'm grabbing HOUSTON! AAA Sports |
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10-12-22 | Canucks +1.5 v. Oilers | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -150 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
10* Canucks PUCKLINE (PACIFIC DIV GOM) I think the Oilers could be in due for some regression this year. I think the Canucks could take another big step forward this year. In what I see being a very competitive game, one which will likely be decided late, or even in extra time, I'm going to recommend to grab the visitors on the puckline option. Vancouver missed the playoffs last year, finishing fifth in the Pacific Division at 43-31-8. Edmonton wasn't that far ahead in second at 49-27-6. Thatcher Demko finished 32-22-7 with 2.72 GAA for Vancouver last year. Jack Campbell is now in net for Edmonton after coming over from the Leafs. Last year he was 31-9-6 with a 2.64 GAA. The Oilers have a potent offensive attack with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, but the defense was average. These two teams are more evenly matched than most think. I believe Vancouver could win this one outright, but the value here lies on the puckline option! AAA Sports |
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10-12-22 | Blackhawks +335 v. Avalanche | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 34 m | Show | |
8* Blackhawks (DESTROYER) Would I bet on Chicago in a seven game series against the Avalanche? No I would not. Do I think that the Hawks have much more than a "punchers chance" on Opening night to pull off an upset? I absolutely do. This line is much too large, and I think the value has swung the way of the hungry underdog visiting side. The Hawks were 28-42-12 last year. Patrick Kane is back for Chicago and he had 92 points last year. Petr Mrazek is net for Chicago this year and he finished 12-6 with a 3.34 GAA last season. The Avs won the Cup and Mikko Rantanen finished with 92 points. Alexander Georgiev and Darcy Kuemper will be tough to be in net this year for the Avs. Is there a major talent gap between these teams? There sure is. But on Opening night, I like Chicago to come out fired up and pull off the upset here. There is major regression in store for the Avs this season, and it all starts on opening night; the play is Chicago! AAA Sports |
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10-12-22 | Padres v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
10* UNDER (NLDS TOY) Yesterday's total flew "over" the number, but I'm expecting more of a "duel" here on Wednesday. The Padres look to bounce back and hand the ball to Yu Darvish, who is 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA in the playoffs so far. He was 16-8 with a 3.10 ERA in the regular season. Darvish faces his old team with a chip on his shoulder. In four starts against them this year he went 1-2 with a 2.50 ERA spanning 25 innings. The home side counters with Clayton Kershaw, who was 12-3 with a 2.28 ERA in the regular season. Over two starts this year vs. the Friars he went 1-0 with a 0.75 ERA. Look for these two stud starters to battle deep and expect this total to stay well "under" the posted number! AAA Sports |
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10-11-22 | Padres v. Dodgers OVER 7 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 30 h 49 m | Show | |
8* OVER (SUPER TOTAL) I'm expecting some offensive fireworks here to open things up. Well, I think this total will eclipse this very low number anyways. The Padres managed to get by the Mets in three games and now they turn to Mike Clevingers, the fourth man in their rotation. Clevinger was 7-7 with a 4.33 ERA, including just 4-4 with a 5.48 ERA on the road. It's difficult to find any flaws in the Dodgers' Clayton Kershaw, who was 12-3 with a 2.88 ERA this season and who has a plethora of knowledge and experience to draw upon in this game and series. San Diego plated 16 runs vs. the Mets though, and I think they'll be able to get a few here in Game 1 as well. This number is a little low in my estimation, the play is the "over!" AAA Sports |
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10-11-22 | Lightning v. Rangers -109 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 36 h 17 m | Show |
10* RANGERS (GOW) The Bolts were 51-23-8 last year, while the Rangers were 52-24-6. The Lightning made it to the Stanley Cup last season, but then lost to the Avalanche. The Lighting were seventh in goals last year and sixth in goals against. This is a big time revenge game for New York though, which was eliminiated by Tampa in six games in the Eastern Conference final last year. New York was ranked 16th offensively last year and second in goals against. Igor Shesterkin finished 36-13-4 with a 2.07 GAA. Andrei Vasilevskiy had a record of 35-16-4 with a 2.46 GAA for the Lightning, but I still love the home side at this price and in this situation. Look for New York to "even the score" with a solid win at home on Opening Night! AAA Sports |
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10-11-22 | Mariners +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 24 h 4 m | Show |
10* MARINERS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) I think that Logan Gilbert and the Mariners have much more than just a "puncher's chance" in Game 1 of this ALDS. The Wild Card teams have to blow through the top of their rotation, and then face the ace of their respective opponent in Game 1. Fortunately for the Mariners, they took care of business in two games. Sure, they'd rather have Luis Castillo going here in Game 1, but you can't front on Logan Gilbert, who finished 13-6 with a 3.20 ERA this year. Now the good thing for Gilbert and the Mariners here as well, is that he was "lights out" on the road, going 8-1 with a 3.17 ERA. Clearly it won't be cake walk facing Justin Verlander, who was 18-4 with a 1.75 ERA. It's obviously impossible to say anything negative at all about Verlander, so I won't even bother. But the thing here is, I believe that Gilbert can match his veteran counterpart inning for inning to start with, and in a scenario like that, the value definitely swings to this hungry underdog. And with the extra 1.5 runs of insurance, I love how this sets up for the Mariners on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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10-10-22 | Raiders v. Chiefs OVER 51.5 | Top | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
10* Raiders/Chiefs OVER (ASSASSIN). We've had a lot of low-scoring "PRIME TIME" NFL games to open up the season so far, but I'm expecting that trend to end this evening. The Raiders are 1-3 and another loss here to a division rival would essentially be the nail in the coffin for Derek Carr and company. Las Vegas comes in with momentum though as it pulled away for the 32-23 win over Denver last weekend. Overall the Raiders are averaging 24 PPG. The Chiefs are off the 41-31 win over Tampa and average 32.2 PPG. That's second in the league. Neither team has looked great defensively. Look for Carr and Patrick Mahomes to take center stage here in what I expect will be a wide-open and classic "duel" here between these two gun-slingers. All signs point to this total eclipsing the posted number as the game comes down the stretch; the play is the "over!" AAA Sports |
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10-09-22 | Bengals v. Ravens OVER 47.5 | Top | 17-19 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 12 m | Show |
10* OVER Bengals/Ravens (AFC NORTH TOY) Neither of these divisional foes has been in many high-scoring games this year, but I say that changes here and now on Sunday night in Baltimore. In fact, the 2-2 Bengals have seen the total go "under" in all four of their games this season, while the 2-2 Ravens have seen the total go "under" two of their four games, including in its 23-20 loss here at home to Buffalo last week. These are two teams in dire need of a win and I expect the sense of urgency that each will be playing with today, to translate into offensive production on the field finally. The Bengals come in with momentum after wins over the Jets and Dolphins. The Ravens are off the heartbreaking loss to Buffalo. This is a great quarterback matchup and I expect Joe Burrow and LaMar Jackson to domiante the headlines in tomorrow's summaries of this contest. I know that we've seen a lot of lower-scoring games in the prime-tiome football spots, but this one screams "shootout" in my opinion; the play is the over! AAA Sports |
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10-09-22 | Padres v. Mets UNDER 6.5 | Top | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
10* UNDER Padres/Mets (NL TOW) The first two games of this series have flown "over" the posted number, but I expect the finale to be a much tighter, lower-scoring "duel" once it's all said and done. The Padres go with Joe Musgrove, who 10-7 with a 2.93 ERA overall and who was 7-3 with a 3.03 ERA on the road. He'll be opposed by the Mets' Chris Bassitt, who finished 15-9 with a 3.42 ERA overall and who was 6-6 with a 2.96 ERA at home. Funny enough, each has been rocked by their respective opponent in the past. Bassitt is 0-2 with a 6.60 ERA in three career starts vs. San Diego, while Musgrove is 1-5 with a 5.83 ERA in six games vs. New York. But that's a case of that was then, and this is now. These starters enter on top form and I expect them to garner most of the headlines in tomorrow's summaries of this contest; this number is high, the play is the under! AAA Sports |
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10-09-22 | Falcons v. Bucs -8 | Top | 15-21 | Loss | -110 | 149 h 40 m | Show |
10* BUCCANEERS (NFC SOUTH GOY) I had a play on Atlanta last weekend in its upset win over the Browns. So far the Falcons are 4-0 ATS, but I'm expecting a letdown here finally. This is a big time game for Tom Brady and the Bucs. So far Tampa's season has been rocky to start. That's been in part to a few different factors, including key injuries and suspension. Yes the Bucs are coming off the 41-31 loss to the Chiefs, but previous to that the Tampa defense was allowing just nine points per game on the defensive side. Brady and company looked better at the game worn on. I expect Tampa's vaunted defense to return to form here in this important home divisional matchup. Marcus Mariota and the Falcons have exceeded early expectations, but all signs point to a return to mediocrity here. I expect Tampa to lay the hammer down from start to finish in this one and because of that, I'm laying the points; the play is the Buccaneers! AAA Sports |
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10-09-22 | Lions v. Patriots UNDER 46.5 | Top | 0-29 | Win | 100 | 52 h 58 m | Show |
10* UNDER Lions/Pats (NON-CONF TOY) These teams I think surprisingly have played to quite a few higher-scoring "overs" to open the season, but I believe everything points to this non-conference matchup being a very defensive affair. Both teams are in dire need of a victory at 1-3. Detroit is averaging 35 PPG, but allowing 35.3. I don't think that the Lions are as good offensively as their early numbers are showing, and I don't think they're nearly as poor defensively either. They've been involved in some wild games to open the season, but I believe they'll have a much more difficult time moving the ball here vs. this talented Patriots defense. And conversely, the Lions' defense catches a break here facing this vanilla New England offense which will likely be without its starting QB again this week due to an ankle injury. Whoever is under cener for the Pats, I'm expecting a lot of running from Damien Harris, who has 246 rushing yards and three TD's for the Pats. Look for this important non-conference matchup to be a very tight, and ulimtately lower-scoring battle; the play is the under! AAA Sports |
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10-08-22 | Oregon State v. Stanford +7 | Top | 28-27 | Win | 100 | 56 h 2 m | Show |
10* STANFORD (PAC 12 GOM) Oregon State is 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS, while Stanford comes in as the more desperate side at 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS. Oregon State is the perfect opponent to face to try and get untracked, as the Beavers come in with zero momentum on the heels of two straight losses. Most recently they fell 42-16 to Utah on Saturday. Four turnovers didn't help their cause. Stanford comes in off a 45-27 loss to Oregon. The home side will have its opportunities here facing an Oregon State team allowing 27.2 PPG so far. Stanford is averaging 29.5 PPG, while Oregon State averages 33.4. With a home game against 4-1 Washington State next weekend, I think the visiting side gets caught in a TRAP game here. No outright, but expect it to come down to the wire; the play is the Cardinal! AAA Sports |
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10-08-22 | South Carolina +10.5 v. Kentucky | Top | 24-14 | Win | 100 | 131 h 29 m | Show |
10* SOUTH CAROLINA (SEC GOY) Am I calling for an outright upset here? I'm not. I just think that this is a fantastic spot wager, as I believe Kentucky gets caught looking past its lowly opponent today to its home game against Mississippi State next weekend. Kentucky is coming off the tight 22-19 loss at Mississippi to fall to 4-1. Ole Miss is now 5-0. After that heart-breaking setback, and with a much more high-profile game to deal with next weekend, this = "TRAP GAME" for the home side. South Carolina is 3-2 SU, and just 2-3 ATS. It's coming off a 50-10 win over South Carolina State. It plays with revenge here after a 16-10 loss to Kentucky as a 4.5 point dog last year. South Carolina can lay it all on the line here as well with its bye week next weekend. The Gamecocks have the offense to keep pace, averaging 35.6 PPG. Kentucky averages 28.8. I say this is a few too many points to be giving up here. No outright, but much closer than expected, the play is South Carolina! AAA Sports |
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10-08-22 | Kansas State v. Iowa State +2 | 10-9 | Win | 100 | 53 h 20 m | Show | |
9* IOWA STATE (ASSASSIN) While I clearly believe the outright win is in the cards, the official call will be to grab as many points as you can. Iowa State is coming off a crushing loss to Kansas last week and I expect it to take out its frustrations on the Wildcats. The home side is winless in conference play, while K-State is 2-0. The Cyclones will look to crush the Wildcats chances at the Big 12 title with the outright win here. K-State comes in off a satisfying 37-28 home win over Texas Tech. QB Adrien Martinez had 116 passing yards a TD, while also running for 171 yards and three more scores on the ground. RB Deuce Vaughn had 170 yards on 23 carries. They've been decent defensively, allowing 18 PPG so far. But Iowa State's defense ranks Top 15 in almost every category, allowing an average of only 255 yards per game. Overall they concede just 14 PPG. Last week Iowa State's kicker missed three FG's in the 14-11 setback to the Jayhawks. Overall they've averaged 26 PPG and note that the Cyclones are also 6-2 ATS in their last eight following a SU loss. K-State has a great run game, but Iowa State has an elite run stopping defense. Look for the hungrier home side to pull it off here; the play is Iowa State! AAA Sports |
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10-08-22 | Army +17.5 v. Wake Forest | 10-45 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 44 m | Show | |
8* ARMY (SPECIAL) Wake Forest is the No. 15 team in the country. It's coming off a 31-21 win at Florida State as a 6-point underdog. Off that upset victory, I'm expecting the home side to get caught looking past its lowly non-conference opponent to its bye week the following week. Army is just 1-3 SU/ATS and it's off a 31-14 loss at home to Georgia State. I think the Black Knights sneak in under the radar here though and that they catch the Demon Deacons at a "good" time. Or at least we do as bettors here with Army, as I'm not predicting an outright upset or anything. The Knights will keep this game close with their rushing attack that ranks second in the nation with 303 yards per game. QB Sam Hartman is having a breakout season for the Deacons with 15 TD's to just two INT's so far, but I can't see the home side keeping the foot on the gas from start to finish. Will Wake Forest take care of business at home? Of course. But it won't cover this large spread against this motivated Army side looking to pull off an upset; grab the points, the play is the Black Knights! AAA Sports |
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10-08-22 | North Carolina v. Miami-FL -3 | 27-24 | Loss | -120 | 50 h 17 m | Show | |
8* MIAMI (DESTRUCTION) North Carolina is 4-1 after beating the Hokies by a score of 41-10 last weekend. UNC is now tied with Duke for the top spot in the conference, but I'm expecting a step back here in this difficult road venue. Last week Drake Maye had 363 passing yards and three passing TD's, while also running in two more TD's on 73 yards rushing. This is a great situational play here tough as Miami comes in off its bye week from last week due to Hurricane Ian. Miami has had two weeks to absorb a terrible effort in a 45-31 setback to MTSU in Week 4, getting stopped on the 5-yard line twice and committing numerous tunovers. Before last weekend's win, UNC had allowed almost 500 yards per game of offense. There's a bit of a QB controversy for Miami, as Tyler Van Dyke was replaced by Jake Garica at half time in Week 4's loss. This competition though is a good thing for us though. UNC's weakness is on the defensive side and I think the unit has another big letdown here on the road; lay the points, the play is Miami! AAA Sports |
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10-08-22 | Predators v. Sharks OVER 6 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 52 m | Show |
10* OVER (ASSASSIN) The Predators won yesterday's season opener by a score of 4-1. I'm expecting a more competitive battle here in Game 2, but one that flies well "over" the posted number once it's all said and done. Predators' goaltender Juuse Saros was 3-0 with a 0.33 ERA in three matchups vs. the Sharks last year. He then allowed just the one goal yesterday. Saros is almost assuredly out for this one though with backup Kevin Lankinen getting the nod. Lankinen is a fantastic backup. Even if Saros does play though, I expect each team to open things up here after that first awkward contest is behind them. Look for this total to fly "over" the posted number sooner, rather than later! AAA Sports |
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10-08-22 | Rays +102 v. Guardians | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 55 m | Show |
10* RAYS (ASSASSIN) I like Tyler Glasnow and the Rays to bounce back from yesterday's tight 2-1 loss. Tampa's now lost six straight games, but I say that streak of futility finally ends here in the Ray's most important game of the season. Tyler Glasnow was impressive in two starts for Tampa after returning from Tommy John surgery, allowing one run, four hits, two walks and striking out ten over 6 2/3's innings of work. Glasnow is 0-2 with a 2.12 ERA in three career starts vs. the Guardians. The home side counters with Triston McKenzie, who finished 11-1 with a 2.96 ERA this season. He owns a 2.25 ERA in two previous starts vs. Tampa. Experience matters at this moment though and the Rays have a way of defying the metrics. The Guardians may win this series, but I expect it to go to the full three games; the play is Tampa! AAA Sports |
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10-07-22 | Houston +3 v. Memphis | Top | 33-32 | Win | 100 | 79 h 38 m | Show |
10* HOUSTON (AAC GOY) Houston is now 2-3 overall nad 0-1 in the AAC after a tough 27-23 loss to Tulane last Friday. The Cougars gained 383 yards of offense, but they struggled defensively in the second half. Clayton Tune though is a solid QB and I think he'll be a difference-maker in this one. He's already passed for 1,201 yards, nine TD's and just three INT's. Keep your eyes on RB Brandon Campbell as well, who has 243 rushing yards and three TD's. Memphis is 4-1 and 2-0 in AAC play after beating Temple 24-3 last weekend. Memphis gained 331 yards of offense, with QB Seth Hennigan passing for 195 yards a TD. He has 1,246 passing yards, nine TD's and two INT's overall. Both teams have struggle defensively. I see this contest being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last and in a scenario like that, the value swings to the undervalued and very hungry dog in this case; grab the points, the play is Houston! AAA Sports |
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10-07-22 | Phillies -102 v. Cardinals | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 29 h 8 m | Show | |
8* PHILLIES (BLOCKBUSTER) The Cardinals knocked the Phillies out of the Playoffs in Game 5 of the NLDS by a score of 1-0 back in 2011 and Philadelphia hasn't been back to the postseason since. Until now that is. The old saying that "revenge is a dish best served cold" could not be more apt in this three-game series in my opinion. It's all hands on deck for Philadelphia as it tries to pull off the minor upset here on the road. Zach Wheeler finished 12-7 with a 2.82 ERA for the Phillies. He's 3-2 with a 2.65 ERA in six career starts vs. the Cards. Miles Mikolas was going to get the call for the Cards, but now Jose Quintana will. He's 6-7 with a 2.93 ERA. He's 0-1 with a 2.90 ERA in seven career starts vs. Philadelphia. But Philadelphia has all the motivation it needs here and it has the big hitters in the line-up to get the job done. And that's what I expect here in Game 1; the play is Philadelphia! AAA Sports |
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10-07-22 | Rays v. Guardians OVER 6.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 35 m | Show |
10* OVER Rays/Guardians (AL TOW) We have two really good starting pitchers going head-to-head here with Shane McClanahan getting the start for the Rays and Shane Bieber getting the nod for the Guardians. The oddsmakers want us to believe that these starters will battle deep into this one, and then these competent bullpens will take over. Tampa averaged 4.11 RPG, while Cleveland averaged 4.31. I'm not buying into this super low total though, despite the level of talent between these starting pitchers. I expect each of these sides to hit their seasonal offensive average and that means that the correct call in Game 1 is indeed on the "over!" AAA Sports |
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10-06-22 | Colts +3.5 v. Broncos | Top | 12-9 | Win | 100 | 56 h 45 m | Show |
10* COLTS (AFC GOM) At the start of the season, this would have seemed like an awesome Thursday night matchup. However, fans, experts, handicappers and everyone else has been scratching their heads trying to figure out these two teams. Each was rated in the Top 10 to win the Super Bowl before the season started, but now the Colts come in at 1-2-1 and the Broncos are 2-2. The Colts are off the 24-17 home loss to Tennessee, while Denver is off the 32-23 setback at Las Vegas. Russell Wilson looked a bit better last week, but nothing to make us believe that he'll be able to pull away from Matt Ryan and this desperate Colts team. This is a big week for each team, but the Broncos' defense looked terrible last weekend. I think Ryan is going to be able to take complete advantage and while I do absolutely believe an outright win is possible, in the end let's grab the points; the play is Indianapolis! AAA Sports |
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10-05-22 | SMU +3 v. Central Florida | Top | 19-41 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
10* SMU (ASSASSIN) This game was moved to Wednesday due to Hurricane Ian. SMU rolled over its first two opponents, but it's since dropped B2B games to TCU and Maryland. The Mustang's offense is firing on all cylinders led by senior QB Tanner Mordecai, who has thrown for 300 yards in all but one game so far (12:5 TD:INT.) The Knights are 3-1, but their competition has been very weak. The only decent team they faced was Louisville and they lost 20-14. The Knights only managed 3.9 yards per pass against a poor Louisville secondary as well. QB John Rhys Plumlee has averaged just 3.1 yards per pass this season. SMU's offense though has been impressive, even in defeat. Neither team is known for its defense, but I give a big nod to SMU here overall. The outright is possible, but let's grab the points! AAA Sports |
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10-04-22 | Phillies v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 0-10 | Win | 130 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
10* ASTROS RUNLINE (IL GOW) The Phillies clinched their first playoff spot in over ten years with their 3-0 win last night and I'm expecting an immediate letdown here. The Astros have already clinched and have home field advantage until the World Series, but they'll be anxious to get back on track here after last night's loss. I really like Phillies' starter Ranger Suarez, who is 10-6 with a 3.37 ERA, but I really like the Astros' Justin Verlander even more. Verlander is 17-4 with a 1.80 ERA and is the front runner for the AL Cy Young award. This game now means nothing to Philadelphia, but it sure means a lot to Verlander, who will try to cap off his brilliant campaign with one last brilliant performance. I expect Houston to not only win this game, but to do so by a sizeable margin; the play is Houston on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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10-03-22 | Rams v. 49ers OVER 42.5 | Top | 9-24 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
10* OVER (NFC WEST TOY) Both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games this year, but I expect this important early divisional matchup to have some offensive fireworks. LA is 2-1 and it's seen the total go "under" in two of three so far, including in last week's 20-12 victory at Arizona. San Francisco is 1-2 and it's seen the total go "under" in all three of its games, including in last week's 11-10 loss to the Broncos (note though that SF has seen the total go "over" the number in seven of its last ten after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row.) The 49ers can't afford another loss here. Especially to the Rams and especially at home. Both teams have struggled to find consistency in the early going, but here's an opportunity to get back on track. Jimmy Garoppolo returned to action in last week's loss and had 211 passing yards, one TD and one INT for the 49ers. I expect him to be given the "green light" here today. Matt Stafford has so far been quiet for his standards for the Rams to open the season. Overall the Rams are averaging 234 yards per game through the air. But I'm expecting a very competitive, wide open battle, and because of that, we can look for this total to fly "over" the number sooner, rather than later! AAA Sports |
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10-02-22 | Jets +4 v. Steelers | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 149 h 42 m | Show |
10* JETS (AFC GOY) Neither team has looked very good. But I still think the Jets have a legitimate shot at winning this one outright. Both teams are 1-2. The Steelers fell 29-17 at Cleveland last weekend, as QB Mitchell Trubisky has 207 passing yards and two touchdowns. With upcoming games at Buffalo next weekend, fllowed by Tampa, Miami and Philadelphia, the Steelers will have to be super careful to not look past their lowly, but dangerous underdog opponent. The Jets lost 27-12 at home to a desperate Bengals team last week (Cincy was 0-2 at the time, and laid everything on the line to avoid the 0-3 hole.) But previous to that Joe Flacco and the Jets came from behind to beat the Browns by a score of 31-30 as 6.5-point underdogs. These teams are even more evenly matched than that this spread would suggest in my opinion. Grab the points, the play is the J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets! AAA Sports |
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10-02-22 | Browns v. Falcons +1 | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 22 h 13 m | Show | |
8* FALCONS (SUPER-BLOWOUT) Cleveland got the better of Pittsburgh by a score of 29-17 at home on Thursday night Football, but I expect the Browns to take a step back here on the road in this non-conference matchup. Jacoby Brissett had 220 yards passing, but the Browns come to town banged up, including to Myles Garrett and four other defensive starters missed practice this week as well. Captain Anthony Walker Jr. was also lost for the season with injury. Falcons' RB Cordarelle Patterson had 141 rushing yards and a TD in his team's 27-23 win over the Hawks. QB Marcus Mariota had 223 passing yards and a TD as well. The Browns are just 2-5 in their last seven on the road and everything points to a complete collapse here. That said, grab the points; the play is Atlanta AAA Sports |
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10-02-22 | Titans v. Colts -3.5 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 0 m | Show |
10* COLTS (AFC SOUTH GOM) They say that divisional matchups are always the most important and that they almost always mean the most to the home side. The Titans are off their first win of the year, a tougher than expected 24-22 win over the Raiders, but I expect a predictable letdown here on the road. Ryan Tannehill had 264 yards, a TD and an INT in the win. The Colts have been playing slightly better, and then come in off their first win of the year in an impressive 20-17 home win over the Chiefs. QB Matt Ryan had his best performance so far for Indianapolis by going 27 of 37 for 222 yards and two TD's. But it's been the Titans' defense which has really struggled, allowing 28 points and 415.7 yards per game. Jonathan Taylor is going to open things up again for Ryan here at home and take advantage of his porous Titans' defensive front. The strength of the Colts is once again on the defensive end, as they're allowing a total of 322.7 yards and only 20.3 points per game. Finally note that Indy is 5-0 ATS in its last five after posting under 90 rushing yards in its previous game, while Tennessee is a disturbingly poor 7-21 ATS in its last 28 vs. teams with losing home records. The Titans' offense is more one-dimensional than ever and I see a complete lop-sided destruction here. Lay the points, the play is the Colts! AAA Sports |
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10-02-22 | Washington Commanders +3.5 v. Cowboys | 10-25 | Loss | -120 | 20 h 59 m | Show | |
8* WASHINGTON (BLOCKBUSTER) Washington comes to town hungry, looking to avoid a third straight loss. The best part aout the Commanders this year though has arguably been the play of veteran quarterback Carson Wentz. They catch a break here facing this depleted Dallas offense. Cooper Rush has been decent so far, but he's no Dak Prescott. Defensively the Cowboys have been OK as well. It's interesting to note though that Washington is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight when allowing 350 more yards of offense in its previous game. Both teams have plenty of issues, but in a game that I see being decided by whichever of these divisional foes has it hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points; the play is the Commanders AAA Sports |
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10-02-22 | Bills v. Ravens +3.5 | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 20 h 32 m | Show | |
8* RAVENS (SPECIAL) Buffalo is coming off its first loss of the season, falling 21-19 at Miami as a 4-point favorite. Now the Bills are a favorite again on the road and I think the oddsmakers are mistaken here. Josh Allen is playing pretty well, but LaMar Jackson is on fire. Yes, the Ravens blew a big lead to Miami two weeks ago, but Baltimore bounced back huge in last week's potentially dangerous 37-26 win over the Patriots. Let's not read too much into early season offensive and defensive numbers for either side. This one just sets up really well for the home side. I think the Bills are frustrated and a second straight road game as a favorite against a team filled with confidence is just not what the doctor ordered right now. The outright is possible, but my official call will be grab as many points as you can; the play is the Ravens! AAA Sports |
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10-01-22 | Stanford +17 v. Oregon | 27-45 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 34 m | Show | |
8* STANFORD (BAIL-OUT BLOWOUT) Am I calling for a straight-up, outright win here for Stanford as a massive underdog on the road? I am not. But I do think that the hungry Cardinal can comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the large spread they've been afforded in this one. Stanford is just 1-2, most recently falling to No. 18 ranked Washington by a score of 40-22. QB Tanner McKee though was decent, going 17 of 26 for 286 yards, three TD's and an INT. I think he'll be a difference-maker in this one as well. The Ducks are 3-1, but they're off a much tighter than expected 44-41 win at Washington State and a small mental letdown is imminent in my opinion. QB Bo Nix had 428 yards passing, three TD's and an INT for the Ducks last week, but as I said, everything points to McKee keeping pace here. Look for the Ducks to go up early, and then take the foot off the gas in the second half; the play is Stanford! AAA Sports |
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10-01-22 | Colorado +17.5 v. Arizona | 20-43 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 31 m | Show | |
9* COLORADO (ATS BLOOD-BATH) Outright win? I'm not calling for it. That said, I think the 0-4 Buffaloes lay everything on the line here and keep this one more competitive than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Arizona is 2-2 and I expect it to get caught looking past its lowly opponent to its game here at home against Oregon next weekend. The Buffs are struggling on both sides of the ball, but we can expect their QB Owen McCown to move the ball today against a Wildcats' defense that's conceding 34 PPG. Arizona QB Jayden de Laura has eight TD passes to his credit, but he's also been intercepted six times. Look for Colorado to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch; the play is the BUFFS. AAA Sports |
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10-01-22 | Mets v. Braves +1.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
10* BRAVES RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) For a number of different reasons, I believe the home side is well worth the price of admission here, as I'll lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. This is a critical series, as it will determine the NL East winner. I don't think that you can count out the Braves' experience in this moment. Home field advantage is also another big factor working in ATL's favor. These pitchers are essentially a "wash" as well, which definitely swings the value in favor of the home side. Max Scherzer is 11-4 with a 2.13 ERA for the Mets, while Kyle Wright is 20-5 with a 3.18 ERA for the Braves. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to lay the price for the Braves on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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10-01-22 | Rays +1.5 v. Astros | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
8* RAYS RUNLINE (SPECIAL) Yes, the Rays just clinched their fourth straight playoff appearance in yesterday's 7-3 win, but they are still trying to run down home-field advantage in the wild-card round. Even in defeat, the Astros clinched home field advantage throughout the playoffs with the Yankees loss on Friday. I say the "letdown" here doesn't come from the Rays, but rather from the Astros, who previously had won nine straight. Shane McClanahan is 12-7 with a 2.51 ERA for the Rays, while Christian Javier is 10-9 with a 2.65 ERA for the Astros. I expect a tight, competitive battle here, and while I do think an outright upset could happen, the best value in my opinion lies in laying the price for the visitors on the runline option; the play is Tampa on the runline! AAA Sports |
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10-01-22 | South Alabama v. UL-Lafayette +7 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 129 h 22 m | Show |
10* LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE (SUN BELT GOY) I think this is a great spot here for the Cajuns and while I do think "sprinkling" a little on the money line is a good idea, the official call wil be to grab as many points as you can. South Alabama is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS. The one loss was a 32-31 setback at UCLA as a 16-point underdog. In Week 2 the Jaguars were 6-point dogs at CMU, but won outright 38-24. They've been great, but with their "bye week" coming up next weekend, I think the Jags get caught a bit complacent here. 2-2 Louisiana Lafayette does not have that same luxury. It won its first two game handily, before then falling 33-21 to Rice and 21-17 to Louisana Monroe as a 9.5-point favorite. Perhaps the Cajuns got caught looking ahead to this one. Lafayette managed the 20-18 win over USA last year, but it did not come close to covering the 12-point spread. the Cajuns have a game at Marhall afrer this, putting extra importance onto this contest. I believe USA takes the foot off the gas in the second half, and that allows the Cajuns to, at the very least, comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Grab the points, the play is Louisiana Lafayette! AAA Sports |
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09-30-22 | UTSA -4 v. Middle Tennessee State | Top | 45-30 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
10* UTSA (CONF USA GOY) UTSA is 2-2, while MTSU is 3-1. MTSU is off a big 45-31 road upset over then No. 25 Miami Florida and I believe a predictable letdown is in the cards here today. UTSA got hammered 41-20 to Texas, but it bounced back in fine fashion last weekend to destroy Texas Southern by a score of 52-24. The Roadrunners were a ridiculous 42-point favorite in that one. UTSA averages 37 PPG, while allowing 35. QB Frank Harris already has 1,310 passing yards, ten TD's and two INT's. MTSU averages 33.8 PPG, while allowing 25. QB Chase Cunningham has 1,000 yards passing, seven TD's and three INT's. Let's not read too much into MTSU's upset win last weekend against a bad Miami team. This UTSA defense has gone up against some tough competition and catches a break this week. Look for the Roadrunners up-tempo offense to prove to be the difference here (also note that UTSA is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 on the road) and lay the points! AAA Sports |
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09-29-22 | Dolphins v. Bengals -4 | Top | 15-27 | Win | 100 | 37 h 56 m | Show |
10* BENGALS (GOW) Miami is 3-0 SU/ATS, while Cincinnati is 1-2 SU/ATS. The Bengals come in off their first win of the year, a 27-12 victory over the Jets, but they're clearly the more desperate team in this fight. A 1-3 record at this point of the season would still be difficult spot to climb out of. The Fish have been playing great, but I expect a classic letdown here on the short week. More than anything though, this is a great "situational" play, as I expect these Miami players to be caught collectively worrying about stuff back at home in Miami with Hurricane Ian bearing down on the coast. It's a perfect situation for this desperate home side. Look for Joe Burrow and the Bengals to continue to progress, as they catch Tua and the Dolphins at the best moment; lay the points, the play is the Bengals! AAA Sports |
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09-29-22 | Utah State +25 v. BYU | Top | 26-38 | Win | 100 | 36 h 29 m | Show |
10* UTAH STATE (GOW) I think Utah State sneaks in under the radar and I expect it to post a solid cover here with the large spread that it's been afforded. The Aggies are 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS after last week's 34-24 home loss as three-point dogs to UNLV. BYU is 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS. It's coming off a 38-24 win over Wyoming. But with a date at Notre Dame up next, not only is this a "look ahead" spot for the home side, but also a "letdown" position as well. Look ahead + letdown = TRAP! Utah State plays with revenge after falling 34-20 as an 8.5-point dog last year as well. I believe BYU goes up big early, but then takes the foot off the gas in the second half. Grab the points, the play is Utah State! AAA Sports |
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09-29-22 | Phillies v. Cubs OVER 7.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
10* OVER Phillies/Cubs (NL TOY) The Phillies are desperate to snap a four-game slide. They're coming off back-to-back losses here in Chicago, falling 2-1 and 4-2. Suffice it to say I'm expecting some fireworks here this afternoon at the plate finally (note that Philly has in fact seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last 11 in trying to avenge B2B road losses against an opponent.) Ranger Suarez is 10-5 with a 3.38 ERA for Phillies, while Javier Assad is 1-2 with a 4.28 ERA for the Cubs. "We have to get going," Philadelphia slugger Bryce Harper said last night. "We can't keep saying that, right? We have to actually do it. As a team, as a club, we've got to be better." Both starters have been decent, but this is just a case of each being in the wrong place at the wrong time this afternoon. The overall situation points to this total eclipsing the posted number sooner, rather than later; the play is the over! AAA Sports |
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09-28-22 | Diamondbacks +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
10* DIAMONDBACKS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) I had a play on Arizona yesterday on the runline and while that play came up short in the Astros 10-2 victory, I look for the visitors to bounce back here with a much better effor with their "ace" on the mound. Arizona will try to play spoiler here, as a win here tonight will clinch home-field advantage throughout the AL playoffs for the Astros. Justin Verlander is 17-4 with a 1.82 ERA for the Astros, while Zac Gallen is 12-3 with a 2.46 ERA for the Diamondbacks. Each enters on top form and I'm expecting a classic "duel" here into the deep innings. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'll recommend grabbing the visitors on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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09-27-22 | Diamondbacks +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 2-10 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
10* DIAMONDBACKS RUNLINE (IL GOW) The Astros are still looking to post the best record in the American League, but I think they'll have their hands full in this interleague matchup. Houston needs just three more wins to lock up home field advantage, but Zach Davies and the D-Backs will look to postpone those arrangements for a bit longer. Davies is 2-4 with a 4.03 ERA. He's posted 11 straight no-decisions. He's made one start against the Astros though and looked good, conceding two runs off four hits with seven K's over eight innings. Arizon has dropped eight of its last 11, but four of those were one run setbacks. Lance McCullers Jr. is 4-1 with a 2.38 ERA for Houston, but he's just 1-1 with a 6.86 ERA in four career starts vs. Arizona (and a pedestrian 4-4 wit a 3.85 ERA in all interleague contests.) In a game that I see being decided late, or even in extra time, I'm grabbing the visitors on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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09-26-22 | Cowboys v. Giants -114 | Top | 23-16 | Loss | -114 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
10* GIANTS MONEYLINE FIRST HALF. Dallas is 1-1 SU/ATS and the Giants are 2-0 SU/ATS. Clearly, this is an important early season divisional matchup here, as the winner will be trying to catch the 3-0 Eagles. Without Dak Prescott for a second straight game though, and now on the road, I think that Cooper Rush will struggle. Ezekiel Elliot only had 53 yards rushing in the win over the toothless Bengals last week. Overall Dallas is averaging just 11.5 PPG, while allowing 18.5. Daniel Jones and the Giants are averaging 20 PPG, and allowing 18. Jones has benefited from the lay of RB Saquon Barkley, who had 72 yards rushing last week. Yes, the Dallas defense has looked good so far, but that was at home. This Giants team is confident and I expect Jones and company to have something up their sleeves in the FIRST HALF (Giants First Half). AAA Sports |
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09-25-22 | 49ers v. Broncos +1.5 | Top | 10-11 | Win | 100 | 132 h 38 m | Show |
10* BRONCOS (NON-CONF GOY) The 49ers looked out of sorts in Week 1 in their 19-10 setback to the Bears. That was a difficult game, as the field was under a few inches of water. San Francisco looked better at home against Seattle though, as I had the 49ers as my NFC West Game Of The Year in their 27-7 victory. Trey Lance got injured and Jimmy Garropolo threw for 154 yards and TD. The defense looked OK, but it's still really hard to get a read on the unit. The Bears game was a "weird" one because of all the rain, and Seattle is just a poor team. The Hawks did beat the Broncos in Week 1, but Denver bounced back with a less than convincing 16-9 loss at home here over Houston. The oddsmakers have been WAY off setting their lines for the Broncos so far this year. Anyone that thought Russell Wilson could throw a switch and have instant chemistry with his offense is pretty ridiculous in my estimation. That said, after three games under his belt, and his first win, Wilson will be feeling much more comfortable. And now I think the books have once again mismanaged this line for the Broncos in Week 3. San Francisco is getting much too much respect here in my estimation. Garopolo has plenty of experience, but this will be his first start of the season. And it comes on the road in a difficult venue against a team dying for a break out performance. This is the stage that Wilson has been waiting for, and I'm expecting him to deliver; the play is the Broncos! AAA Sports |
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09-25-22 | Chiefs v. Colts +5.5 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 20 h 4 m | Show | |
8* COLTS (SUPER BLOWOUT) With their backs against the wall, the Indianapolis Colts will fight tooth and nail here to try and avoid the dreaded 0-3 hole. I wonder if Russell Wilson and Matt Ryan are glad they left their former teams for "greener pastures?" It's been a grind for both, but arguably much more so for Ryan and the 0-1-1 Colts (note that only 2.5% of teams that start 0-3 ever even make it to the playoffs.) The one thing going for the Colts this season? They're in a downright terrible division, with Tennessee 0-2, Houston with the identical 0-1-1 record and Jacksonville leading the way at 1-1-0. Kansas City has a HIGH PROFILE date at Tampa Bay next week, and I believe it'll get caught "looking ahead." I expect Ryan the Colts to dig deep here and, at the very least, keep this one tight enough to earn the comfortable cover; the play is Indy AAA Sports |
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09-25-22 | Bills v. Dolphins +5.5 | 19-21 | Win | 100 | 20 h 47 m | Show | |
8* DOLPHINS (SPECIAL) I think an outright win could be in the cards here. That said, in the end I'm going to grab the points. Both teams are 2-0, and each has looked impressive. This is now the start of a really tough stretch for the Bills, with a game at Baltimore next week, followed by Pittsburgh, at Kansas City and Green Bay. Miami has a quick turn around to play on Thursday night, but a date vs. the 0-2 Bengals now isn't quite as important. Miami plays with revenge here after a 26-11 to the Bills last Halloween. Miami has the offense to easily keep pace, and I believe its defense rebounds from last week's shaky performance. As I said off the top, the outright is possible, but the official call here will be to grab as many points as you can; the play is the Dolphins! AAA Sports |
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09-25-22 | Lions v. Vikings -6 | 24-28 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 10 m | Show | |
8* VIKINGS (BLOOD-BATH) The Lions have been "sexy" underdogs so far over the first two weeks, but I think some regression will be in order here against this now desperate Vikings team that's looking to bounce back from a poor 24-7 effort in Philadelphia last weekend. Previous to that though Minnesota looked dominating in its 23-7 home win over the Packers. So which Vikings team can we expect here? I say the same one that we saw in Week 1. Detroit came up just short in its Week 1 38-35 home setback to Philly, but then it bounced back with the 36-37 home win over Washington in Week 2. Now hitting the road for the first time, I'm predicting a step back for the Lions this week. Look for the hungry Vikings to pull away for the comfortable win and cover; lay the points! AAA Sports |
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09-25-22 | Bengals v. Jets +6 | 27-12 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 25 m | Show | |
8* JETS (SPREAD-BEATER) The Bengals made it all the way to the Super Bowl last year, but they're now 0-2 SU/ATS this season. The Jets are 1-1 SU/ATS, and coming off an epic 31-30 road win over the Browns. I think that Bengals' QB Joe Burrow is likely the best player on the field of play today, but I don't think his team is. Especially such a big favorite on the road. I think this line should be more like -2.5. Giving this one the good old "eye test" here in Week 3. I actually think an outright victory is VERY possible, but in the end, let's grab the points; the play is the Jets! AAA Sports |
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09-24-22 | Stanford +13 v. Washington | Top | 22-40 | Loss | -110 | 111 h 37 m | Show |
10* STANFORD (PAC 12 GOY) Washington is 3-0 SU/ATS, but with a date against UCLA next weekend (also 3-0 SU/ATS currently), I think this is a "TRAP" game for the home side. Stanford is 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS. It's coming off a 41-28 loss to USC. Tanner McKee had 220 yards passing and a TD. The Cardinal also rushed for 221 yards. So far Stanford is averaging 34.5 PPG, while allowing 25.5. The Huskies upset Michigan State in their last game by a score of 39-23, on the road no less. As I said, with a date against UCLA up next, not only does this set up as a "letdown" spot, but also a "lookahead" position. Add those two things together and you get "trap" game. Washington has so far averaged 45.3 PPG, while allowing 18. Clearly, no outright, but because of all these situational factors working in favor of Stanford here (including in trying to avenge last year's loss), the play in this one is indeed on Stanford! AAA Sports |
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09-24-22 | Boston College +17.5 v. Florida State | Top | 14-44 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 15 m | Show |
10* BOSTON COLLEGE (ACC GOW) Boston College comes in under the radar here in my opinion after starting the season 1-2. Florida State is 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS. But this is a classic "trap" game for the home side with a date vs. 3-0 Wake Forest next week. Last week BC crushed Maine by a score of 38-17. Sure it was just an FCS team, but it was a confidence booster. QB Phil Jurkovec went 25 of 37 for 320 yards and a pair of touchdowns. FSU QB Jordan Travis was 17 of 17 for 157 yards, two TD's and an interception in his team's 35-31 road victory over Louisville last weekend. Both teams have been decent defensively. Listen, I'm not calling for the outright upset here, but this is just WAY too many points to be giving up. Look for BC to comfortably sneak in through the back door and grab the points! AAA Sports |
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09-24-22 | Guardians v. Rangers +1.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -155 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
9* RANGERS RUNLINE (HAMMER BEATDOWN) I think Glenn Otto and the Rangers have much more than just a "punchers chance" in this one. Texas had won two straight over the Angels, before a 6-3 setback here in the opener of this one. And after five straight victories, I expect a small letdown here finally from the visiting side. The Guardians let their guard down here after moving eight games ahead of the White Sox in the AL Central. Cal Quantrill is 13-5 with a 3.56 ERA for the Guardians, while Otto is 6-9 with a 4.88 ERA for the Rangers. With the majority of the public money on Cleveland, I'm going contrarian here. That said, the value on the runline option is just too good to turn down. In a contest that I see being extremely competitive, I'm grabbing the home side on the runline AAA Sports |
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09-24-22 | Astros v. Orioles +1.5 | Top | 11-10 | Win | 102 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
10* ORIOLES RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) Baltimore won't be rolling over here. It's in the hunt for a playoff wildcard. It comes in on top form as well, winning three straight. That includes the firt two games of this series, winning 2-0 and 6-0. Sure the Astros would like to get back into the win column, but this is a crucial series for the home side. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to grab the hungry Orioles on the runline option. The Orioles have also used just one reliever over the last two games. Mike Baumann is 1-3 with a 4.29 ERA for the Orioles, while Framber Valdez is 16-5 with a 2.57 ERA for the Astros. I expect another great performance from the Orioles' pitching staff and while I do think another outright is possible, my official call is to grab Baltimore on the runline! AAA Sports |
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09-24-22 | Northern Illinois +26.5 v. Kentucky | 23-31 | Win | 100 | 32 h 27 m | Show | |
8* NORTHERN ILLINOIS (SPECIAL) The bottom line here is that I believe that this one sets up as a classic "letdown/lookahead" spot for the home side. Letdown + lookahead = TRAP GAME. Kentucky is 3-0 SU/ATS, but with conference play starting next week vs. South Carolina, I think the Wildcats will go up big early, and then take the foot off the gas in the sceond half. NIU is 1-2 SU/ATS. The Huskies start league play next week as well. I expect NIU veteran QB Rocky Lombardi to move the ball in the second half. Kentucky has some playmakers on defense, but the offense hasn't been that impressive. This is just WAY too many points to be giving up, as the oddsmakers try to catch the public money. No outright, but closer than expected; the play is Northern Illinois! AAA Sports |