10* Vermont (AMERICA EAST CONF. TOURNEY GOY)

We like Vermont (26-6 overall and 15-1 in the America East), to send a message here and to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish vs. New Hampshire (16-14, 7-9.) The Catamounts are big favorites here, but not nearly big enough in our estimation. Vermont averages 101.1 points per 100 possessions, while allowing 87.8 points per 100 possessions. Both are in the Top 50 in the country. The Wildcats' margin of error is small, averaging 74.6 PPG, and allowing 74.2. Vermont held on for the tight 75-72 win over Albany to advance, not even coming close to covering the 16.5-point spread, but this matchup and spread is much more manageable; so much so, that Vermont does indeed become our America East Conference Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR!

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10* OVER Davidson/Fordham (A-10 TOURNEY TOY)

These teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but we're expecting a much more wide-open affair this time around finally between Davidson and Fordham. The A-10 Tourney gets going here with 15-16 Davidson facing off against 12-19 Fordham. The Wildcats finished the year by losing five straight. The beat Fordham 68-53 on February 20th, and note that the Rams have seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of their last 11 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference road loss in which they were held to 55 or fewer points in. With each team pushing the pace like we suspect, all signs point to this total flying "over" the number sooner, rather than later!

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10* UNDER Milwaukee/UNK (Horizon League Tourney TOY)

These teams have been playing to several higher-scoring affairs of late, but we're finally expecting more of a defensive battle here between Milwaukee and Northern Kentucky on Monday night. Northern Kentucky enters averaging 74.8 PPG, while allowing 72.9, while Milwaukee averages 79.5 PPG, while conceding 78.6. Milwaukee finished 19-14 overall, while UNK was 18-14. The Panthers lost 90-72 at Northern Kentucky on January 18th, but then bounced back and won 73-72 at home on February 17th. These two evenly matched sides have played to a couple of high-scoring affairs to reach this point of the tournament, but everything finally points to much more of a defensive battle in our opinion this time around; this number is high, the play is indeed on the "under!" 

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10* UNDER Warriors/Spurs (ASSASSIN)

Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but all signs finally point to more of a defensive battle in our opinion here. These teams just played and the Spurs managed the 126-113 road win as 12.5-point dogs, but note that GS has seen the total dip below the number in eight of its last 12 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Look for SA to come back down to Earth here and expect the Warriors to finally double down on the defensive end after that pathetic performance last time out; this number is high, the play is the "under!" 

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10* OVER Blues/Bruins (NON-CONF TOW)

The Bruins have either seen the total go "under" the number, or "push" on the total over their last five games, but we're finally anticipating much more of a wide-open offensive affair here. One of the strengths of Boston is its ability to play any type of game, whether it be a wide-open shootout, or a shutdown defensive one. The Blues have been terrible of late, especially offensively, but we're expecting the visitors to open up the playbook here and to push things from start to finish. This will of course leave the Blues open on the backend. St. Louis has lost three in a row, most recently a 4-0 loss at the Rangers, but note that the Blues have seen the total go "over" the number in seven of their last ten following a shutout road loss. A great spot to wager on the "over!" 

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10* Northern Colorado (BIG SKY TOUNEY GOY)

Just a great situational play here. Idaho State is off the 68-60 win over Northern Arizona last night, but now here on the second game of the B2B, we're expecting fatigue to be a major issue. Northern Colorado has been off since March rth after beating NAU 82-74. The Bears have scored over 80 points in three straight games and we can't see the dead tired Bengals being able to keep pace; lay the points, the play is Northern Colorado!

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10* Lakers (ASSASSIN)

Just a great situational play here. Ant is nursing an ankle injury and Kat is still sidelined. The Wolves are off a 113-104 OT loss at Cleveland and the Lakers play with revenge after a 108-106 loss in Minnesota back on December 30th. The Lakers are off the 123-122 win over the Bucks here at home and we're expecting them to build off that performance; the play is LA on the MONEYLINE option, as it's essentially a "pick em" anyways!

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10* Wild (CENTRAL DIVISION GOM)

Just a great situational play. Nashville has been hot, but it's off a tight 2-1 win at Columbus just last night, and fatigue will clearly now be a factor in the second game of the B2B scenario. The Wild play with revenge after a humbling 6-1 loss at Nashville at the end of February. The Wild have had a night off to absorb a tight 2-1 OT loss at Colorado, but all signs point to an immediate bounce-back here at home, where they're still 15-12-4-0 this season; lay the price, the play is Minnesota!

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10* Kings (REVENGE ASSASSIN)

No need to overthink this one, as this one sets up well for the revenge-minded home side. The Stars are off the 6-2 win at the Ducks just last night, but with three whole nights off after this followed by a home game vs. Floriday, not only does this set up as a letdown spot, but also a look-ahead (and when you add those two factors together you get "trap game.") LA does play with revenge here as well after the 5-1 loss at Dallas back in January, and after winning three of its last four, all signs point to LA taking advantage of this situation here at home. All things considered, we feel this to be the very definition of "great line value;" the play is LA!

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10* Atlanta United FC (MLS GOM)

Home-field advantage will prove to be the difference-maker in this one. New England is 0-2 to start the season and it clearly has several issues across the board. It fell 3-1 at DC to open the season and we're predicting a similar final outcome here in this difficult road venue. Atlanta fell 1-0 at Columbus, but it was a war until the end. Now back at home for two straight, we like Atlanta United FC to take advantage of this favorable matchup and to find a way to deliver the goods before the end of extra time in regulation; lay the price, the play is indeed on Atlanta United FC!

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10* Troy (SUN BELT CONF. TOURNEY GOY)

Texas State is 16-17, and Troy is 20-11. This is the quarterfinals of the Sun Belt Conference Tournament and we feel that the Trojans should for sure be larger favorites in this spot. Texas State beat Southern Miss 79-59 to advance, while Troy has received a bye into this spot. The Bobcats have won five straight, but note that Texas State is in fact just 3-7 ATS in its last ten after five or more SU victories in a row. The Trojans now get to avenge an 82-79 loss to Texas State in the final regular season game for both teams, and note that Troy is 3-1 ATS in its last four in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference loss vs. an opponent. Lay the points, as everything points to a lop-sided victory for Troy this time around!

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10* OVER Gardner Webb/UNC Asheville.

This is a great situational play. Both teams ended the regular season with B2B UNDERS, and they both opened the Tournament with low-scoring victories as well. That's signficant for us to take note of though for two reason. Reason 1: Gardner Webb has in fact seen the total go OVER the number in three of its last four after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. Reason 2: UNC Asheville has seen the total dip below the posted number in eight of its last 11 in the same position. The last time these teams played, Gardner Webb managed the 78-77 victory in late February, and we're expecting an even higher-scoring "shootout" this time around; this number is low, the play is the "over!" 

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10* Crystal Palace (EPL GOW)

In what we feel should be an even bigger line here for Crystal Palace here early on Saturday, we will indeed recommend to play the home side. Both teams are struggling, but this is a golden spot for CP, who comes in off a 3-1 loss to Tottenham. A date vs. 18th spot Luton Town is just what the doctor ordered to get back on track in our opinion though. The Hatters have lost four straight in the league and we just feel this is a really difficult spot once again vs. this super focused home side. Both teams are suffering major injuries, but Luton's list is much longer. The final thing though is the revenge factor, as Luton managed a 2-1 win in the final moments in the reverse fixture at the start of the year. We love Crystal Palace to step up and grab all three points in this one with a convincing win in regulation; lay the price, the  play is indeed on CP!

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10* Lakers (ASSASSIN)

Milwaukee is just 16-15 on the road, while the Lakers are 23-11 at home. The Bucks kicked off their road trip with an uninspiring 125-90 loss at Golden State, which snapped their win streak since the All Star game. With tougher games on the horizon as well here vs. the Clippers in two nights, this is for sure a letdown + look-ahead spot. Add those two factors together and you get "trap game!" LA is off a 130-120 home loss to the Kings as three-point favs, but note that the Lakers are 3-1 ATS in their last four off a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite. Grab the points, the play is LA!

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10* Oral Roberts(SUMMIT LEAGUE CONF. TOURNEY GOY)

These are two bottom feeders in the Summit League. South Dakota is ninth, and Oral Roberts is 8th. Oral Roberts averages 73.6 PPG, while South Dakota averages 76.5. The bottom line here though is that the Golden Eagles play with revenge here after a tight 77-76 road loss to the Coyotes on February 24th. They won the other matchup, but note Oral Roberts is 7-3 ATS in its last ten in trying to avenge a SU conference road loss vs. an opponent. Look for the Golden Eagles' superior defense to be the difference in this one and lay the short points with confidence! 

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10* OVER Radford/High Point (BIG SOUTH TOURNEY TOY)

We had a play on Radford in its 67-60 win over SCUS in its opening round of the Big South Conference Tournament. The Highlanders went on to cover the five points, but the total stayed well under the number of 139.5 in that one. Including its final two regular season losses, Radford has now seen the total go "under" in three straight, but that's significant to note as the Highlanders have in fact seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. High Point finished 24-7 and No. 1 in the regular season in the Conference. It's three-game win streak to end the season was snapped in a 74-72 loss at Longwood, but note that High Point has seen the total go "over" the number in three of its last four when playing with five or more days of rest. Expect a much faster pace to this contest and then look for the total to sail well "over" the number before the final horn blares!

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8* Kings (BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT)

No need to overthink this one. The Senators were a favorite on the road last night, but they blew a big chance to get into the win column by falling 2-1 at Anaheim. I had a play on Ottawa in that one unfortunately and while we don't "flip flop" on teams from one night to the next, this is clearly just a horrible spot now for the Sens and we feel that LA should/could in fact be a much larger favorite here. So we're correcting a mistake from last night and are expecting the Kings, who are off a 2-1 OT loss here to the Canucks, to take advantage. LA is still 12-10-2-5 at home, while the Senators are 8-18-1-0 on the road. Lay the price with confidence, the play is the Kings!

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10* Celtics (ASSASSIN)

Payback. Boston's big home win streak came to an end in mid January when the defending World Champs came to town and won 102-100. The Celtics are 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Both teams are coming off losses, but Denver's 117-107 OT home loss to the Suns will still be fresh on the front of their minds. The Celtics fell 105-104 at Cleveland, but had won 11 straight previous to that. Look for the "revenge factor" to be the difference-maker tonight; the play is indeed on Boston!

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10* UNDER Cal State Fullerton/UC Riverside (BIG WEST TOY)

As primarily situational handicappers, this one falls right into our "wheelhouse." These teams are needing a win here and we're expecting that to translate into a defensive battle. There are many reasons to believe it'll be a defensive war instead of a wide-open offensive shootout. UC Riverside averages 69.6 PPG, while CSU Fullerton averages just 67.6. Each team's defense catches a break this week. The Highlanders beat the Titans 81-73 as 1.5-point favorites on the road on February 15th, and note that Cal State Fullerton has in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 12 in trying to avenge a SU and ATS conference home loss as an underdog vs. an opponent. In our opinion, this one has defensive "war" written all over it; the play is indeed on the "under!" 

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10* Lakers (ASSASSIN)

This one comes down to REVENGE Lenny. These team are pretty evenly matched on any given night, but the Lakers are at home an dthey're playing with revenge. We think those two factors added together will result in a solid win and cover for the Lake Show on Wednesday night. Sacramento is 34-26 overall, including 18-15 on the road, while LA is 35-29 overall, including 23-10 at home. The Kings come into this one off an awkward 113-109 home loss to Chicago, and with a MUCH EASIER game at home tomorrow night vs. the Spurs, we think the visitors will get caught "LOOKING AHEAD" here (especially with a couple days off after that followed by four more home games.) But for the Lakers, they've now won three of their last four and they didn't look past Oklahoma City last time out, winning 116-104. And they do play with revenge after the 125-110 loss here at home to the Kings at the start of the season, and note that LA is in fact 7-3 against the spread in its last ten in trying to avenge a straight up and against the spread home loss against an opponent. After this the Lakers have two tough games vs. the Bucks and Wolves, before a rematch on the road in Sacarmento, so this game here vs. the Kings on Wednesday night does indeed take on added importance for the home side. Look for LA to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish and lay the short points with confidence!

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10* Radford (BIG SOUTH TOURNEY GOY)

The Radford Highlanders are 15-16, while the USC UpState Spartans are 10-19. These team are playing in Nido at the Mariana Qubein Arena. Overall the Highlanders average 72.5 PPG, while allowing 71.7. The Spartans are averaging 71.4 PPG, while conceding 73.1. These teams played twice. Radford won 64-61 at home as an 8-point favorite in the first one, and then lost 78-69 at SCUS on February 3rd as a 1.5-point favorite. Note that Radford is 7-3 ATS in its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference road loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Radford wasn't able to cover in either game vs. South Carolina Upstate this year, but in this neutral site affair, a "third times the charm" could not be a more apt phrase to describe this situation for us; the play is indeed on Radford!

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10* East Carolina (AAC GOY)

While we're not calling for an outright victory here or anything, we do definitely expect a much tighter battle than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. This one sets up well for the visitors. ECU is 14-15 overall, including 3-6 on the road, while SMU is 19-9 overall, including 13-3 at home. The Pirates don't come in with a lot of momentum. They've lost three straight, both SU and ATS in a row. They were dogs in each game. But that for sure is significant for us to take note of here, as the Pirates are a near-perfect 4-1 ATS in their last five (80% of the time!) after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row. ECU also plays with revenge after the 75-64 home loss as a four-point dog, and note that the Pirates are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference home loss as an underdog vs. an opponent. SMU has also lost three straight, both SU and ATS. It's not playing well at all right now, losing 77-73 at home to UTSA as a 17-point favorite last time out. With a game at UAB to end the season, we also believe it'll get caught looking ahead. Grab the points, the play is indeed on East Carolina!

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10* Suns (WESTERN-CONFERENCE NON-DIVISION GOM)

We base our picks on many different things, and this particular one is a great "situational" release. Phoenix will be desperate to snap a two-game slide following a humbling 118-110 loss to OKC as a 4.5-point favorite. That was the Suns third straight ATS loss. Note though that Phoenix is 7-3 ATS in its last ten off an upset loss as a home favorite, and it's also 4-1 ATS in its last five after three or more ATS losses in a row. Additionally the Suns play with the added incentive of "revenge" here after a 119-111 home loss to the Nuggets back in early December, and note that they're 8-4 ATS in their last 12 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss vs. an opponent. Denver has yet to lose since the All Star break, and it's covered in every game but one of those. But with Boston coming to town on Thursday night, not only does this set up as a potential letdown spot, but also a potential look-ahead spot. Look for Phoenix to take advantage!

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6* Islanders (BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT)

Just a really great spot for the Islanders in this one. We don't mind laying chalk when we feel that our "play on" side could/should in fact be a much larger one. St. Louis is just 14-15-1-1 on the road, while New York is 14-8-6-3 at home. But the Blues are off a 2-1 shootout win at Philly just last night. Off that rare road win, fatigue will clearly be a factor here in the second game of the B2B. The Isles have won three straight. They've had two nights off after hammering Boston here 5-1. They play with revenge after a humbling 4-0 loss at St. Louis last month. Add it all up, and the value here for sure is to lay the price and expect a blowout of epic proportions; the play is indeed on New York!

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10* Loyola Maryland (PATRIOT LEAGUE TOURNEY SIDE OF YEAR).

Conference Tournament time. While we're not calling for the outright victory here for the Greyhounds, we do think that revenge-minded Loyola Maryland can keep it close enough to earn the comfortable cover. Loyola ended a four-game slide at the end of the season with a 69-68 upset win over Army as a one-point dog. It does indeed play with revenge as well after a 69-62 home loss to Navy as a 1.5-point favorite back on February 21st, and note that the Greyhouds are in fact 4-1 ATS in their last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite vs. a conference opponent. Navy closed the season on a roll, off four straight SU/ATS victories in a row, inclding a 71-65 over American as a seven-point dog in its regular season finale. That result is significant to note here though as the Midshipmen are just 1-3 ATS in their last four off an upset conference road win as an underdog. In what we anticipate will be a battle to the final moments, we're grabbing the points with Loyola Maryland!

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10* Flames (ASSASSIN)

Calgary has won five straight and we're expecting that winning run to continue for at least one more game here in this favorable revenge spot. Seattle is off a 2-1 loss at Edmonton. It beat Calgary 2-1 on the road back in late December, but note that the Flames are 4-1 in their last five in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. With a game at Winnipeg tomorrow, we're expecting the visitors to get caught "looking ahead" as well. Lay the price with confidence, the play is indeed on Calgary!

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10* UNDER Wizards/Jazz (NON-CONF TOM)

Looking at the sides here, not really attractive betting either team. Washington is just 9-51 overall this year, including 6-26 on the road, while Utah is only 23-34 overall, but a much more respectable 18-11 at home. But Utah returns home after going winless on its road trip, most recently falling 126-120 at Miami. Previous to that the Jazz had seen the total go "under" in four straight. As primarily situational cappers, these are the types of games that we're always on the look out for. The first game back after a road trip can be a difficult one. It can be a letdown spot if its been a successful road trip, or it can be the starting point of a new win streak if the team got destroyed away from friendly confines. And so that's the case here for Utah, as we think it'll for sure be looking to double down on the defensive end here to snap the three-game slide. The Jazz actually beat the Wizards 123-108 in the Nation's capital back on January 25th. But that's significant to note, because the Wizards have in fact seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 12 games when trying to avenge a straight up and against the spread loss against an opponent. After their most recent 140-115 loss at the Clippers, following a 134-131 OT loss at the Lakers, the Wizards have lost 14 straight. This is the end of a three-game trip. They'll have a night off before playing Orlando at home after this. But for us, we see this one playing out similar to the first matchup between these clubs. Utah averages 114.6 PPG, and the Jazz average 117.5. Add those two averages together and it comes to well "under" tonight's total on this contest. We don't think either team will even reach its average tonight though. For all the reasons listed above, the play is the UNDER.

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10* NC State (ACC GOY)

Outright win?! We're not counting anything out here, but our official call will be to grab as many points as you can with the home side. Duke is 23-6 overall, including 6-4 on the road, while NC State is 17-12 overall, including 12-4 at home. NC State has lost back-to-back games at FSU and UNC as a dog, but it's been trading ATS victories and losses over its last five games and after the solid 79-70 road loss but cover at UNC, we like the home side to now keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe as well. Duke has won two in a row, both SU and ATS, but with a game at home vs. UNC this coming weekend, not only do we feel this is a natural "letdown" spot, but also a "look-ahead." This is a trap-game for the visitors, and we're looking for the home side to step up and make the most of it; grab the points, the play is NC State!

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8* DESTRUCTION Oilers.

Just a great overall situational play here. We feel that the Oilers could/should in fact be much larger favs in this spot. No need to overthink this one. Pittsburgh plays in Calgary on Saturday night and despite the result of that one, we're predicting a complete blowout for the home side here. The Oilers are Seattle on Saturday, but the home ice advantage will only work in Edmonton's favor here as well. These teams haven't played yet this season, but look for the Oilers to take advantage of this situation and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night!

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10* OVER Pistons/Magic (ASSASSIN)

Both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, but all signs finally point to more a high-scoring "shootout" here on Sunday in our opinion. Detroit has now seen the total go "under" in eight straight after its most recent 110-100 loss to Cleveland (note though that the Pistons have in fact seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 12 after a SU/ATS loss in which it was held to 100 or fewer points in.) Orlando is off B2B wins. It's seen the total go "under" in three straight, but that's significant to note as the Magic have seen the total go "over" the number in four of their last five after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. With each team pushing the pace like we suspect, all signs point to this total flying "over" the number sooner, rather than later!

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10* Evansville (MISSOURI VALLEY GOM)

While we're stopping short in calling for an outright upset, everything points to a much tighter battle here in our opinion than what this spread is suggesting. Evansville is only 4-10 SU away from friendly confines, but 8-6 ATS. The Purple Aces have lost five straight SU/ATS, but that's significant to note as Evansville is in fact 7-3 ATS in its last ten after five or more SU/ATS losses in a row. Belmont is 11-2 SU at home, but a more modest 7-5 ATS. I believe the home side will be pushed to the brink here. In their final regular season game, look for the visitors to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch; grab the points, the play is Evansville!

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10* Flames (NON-CONF GOM)

We base our selections on many different things. This one is a great "value" play overall. With a tough game at Edmonton tomorrow night, we believe the Penguins will classically get caught "looking ahead" here. Calgary has been playing great, winner of four straight. It plays with revenge after a 5-2 loss at Pittsburgh in October. Great value play overall on Calgary!

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10* Utah (DOG OF MONTH)

We simply feel this is a great "spot" wager on Utah. Outright win?! Probably not. But we love betting on these types of situations. Yes, Miami is hot, but this is a natural "letdown" spot. The Heat went 5-6 on their road trip. They dropped the final game in Denver, but still covered the spread. They've covered in nine straight now. I think the home side is now overvalued though. Teams that return home after a long and successful road trip, often have a letdown in the first game back in front of the home town crowd. The Jazz will look to take advantage. They beat the Heat 117-109 at home back in late December, but off B2B losses to open this road trip, we're looking for the hungry visitors to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch; grab the points, the play is indeed on the Jazz!

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10* OVER OCSC/Miami (TOM)

As primarily situational cappers, we love the way this one sets up to be a higher-scoring affair. Both teams played to lower-scoring games to open the season, and because of that we absolutely believe there's an overreaction here and that this O/U line is in fact way too low now. OCSC went to a 0-0 draw tih Montreal, while Miami opened with a 2-0 win over Real Salt Lake, before the uninspiring 1-1 draw with LA to close out Week 1. With two games under their belts and now back at home, we're expecting Messi's side to push the pace from start to finish here. With this faster-paced affair like we're anticipating, all signs do indeed point to this total eclipsing the posted number sooner, rather than later; the play is the "over!" 

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10* UNDER OKS/Texas (BIG 12 TOM)

Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but all signs point to a much tighter, and lower-scoring battle finally here between these BIG 12 opponents on Saturday afternoon in our opinion. Oklahoma State is 12-16 overall, including just 1-7 on the road, while Texas is 18-10 overall, including 12-4 at home. The Cowboys are big underdogs after two straight home losses. OKS has in fact seen the total go "over" the number in five straight, but that's significant for us to take note of as the Cowboys have in fact seen the total go "under" the number in nine of their last 12 after playing to five or more straight "overs" in a row. Texas is off an upset 81-69 win at Texas Tech as a three-point dog, and note that the Longhorns have seen the total go "under" the number in three of their last four off an upset SU/ATS conference road win as a dog. Texas won't need to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish, so expect this slower-paced affair to stay well "under" once the final horn blares!

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10* Newcastle (GOM)

Newcastle is currently in ninth spot at 11-11, while Wolverhampton is eighth spot at 11-10. These two sides played to a 2-2 draw in the reverse-fixture back in late October, but the overall situation that each finds itself coming into this one, tips the scales in favor of the home side here. In fact, we feel that Newcastle should or could in fact be a much larger favorite. The Wolves managed an epic 2-1 win at Tottenham as large dogs, before then barely holding on for the 1-0 win at home vs. Sheffield. Newcaslte broke a two-game away slide with a 3-0 home win over lowly Fulham, but we're expecting the home side to build off that win and to make sure that they earn MORE than just the "draw" here vs. this team that struggles in EPL away contests. All things considered, we feel this to be the very defintion of "great line value;" the play is Newcastle!

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10* Clippers (NON-CONF GOW)

Just a good old situational play here. No need to overthink this one. The Wizards are off a 134-131 OT loss here to the Lakers just last night, and clearly fatigue will be a major issue. With a couple nights off after this, we say the visitors just "go through the motions" in this one. As we said, a great "situational" play. The Clippers won't be lacking motivation either after B2B losses here at home. Lay the points, the play is LA!

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8* Senators (DESTROYER)

A great "common sense" play here. We play totals, dogs, and we're also not afraid to lay chalk, especially when we feel that our "play on" side should/could in fact be a much larger one. And that's the case here. Arizona is off a 14th straight loss in last night's 4-2 setback at Toronto. Look for the rested and hungry Senators, who are 25-29-3-0 overall, but who are 17-13-2-0 at home, to take advantage; lay the price with confidence, the play is Ottawa!

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10* UNDER ODU/Georgia Southern.

Overall we love the way this one sets up to be a lower-scoring defensive battle. This one is all about the overall "situation," combined with a couple of strong O/U ATS stat that fully support us here. ODU is 7-23 overall, including only 1-11 on the road. Georgia Southern is 7-23 overall as well, but 5-6 at home. This is a game that each club will feel it has an opportunity to actually win in. Expect this to tranlsate into a defensive affair. Georgia Southern has seen the total go "over" in six straight now, but despite its most recent 83-73 victory over Marshall, note that the Eagles have still seen the total go "under" the number eight of their last 12 after playing to five or more straight "overs" in a row; this number is high, the play is the "under!" 

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10* UNDER Saint Mary's/Pepperdine (WEST COAST TOM)

Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but everything finally points to much more of a defensive affair in this contest finally here at Pepperdine on Thursday night. Just a great situational play overall for a few different reasons. Saint Mary's is 23-6, including a perfect 8-0 on the road. 6-2 ATS. Pepperdine is just 12-18 overall, but 9-7 SU and 8-6 ATS. The Waves play with revenge here after a humbling 103-59 loss at the Gaels in the middle of the month, and note that Pepperdine has seen the total go "under" the number in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference road loss vs. an opponent. Saint Mary's is off the 88-62 win over San Diego and it's now seen the total go "over" the number in three straight, which is significant to note as the Gaels have in fact seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. The overall situation that each team finds itself in points to the "under" as the correct call as far as the total is concerned in this one!

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10* Kraken (NON-CONF GOM)

This is just a great "spot" bet on Seattle, which plays with "revenge" after a 3-0 shutout loss in Pittsburgh in mid-January (and note that the Kraken are 4-1 in their last five in trying to avenge a shutout road loss vs. an opponent.) Seattle has been trading wins/losses over its last five games. It's off a 4-3 shootout win over Boston here last time out, but has had two whole days off to prepare for this one. The Pens have been playing well as well of late, entering having won three straight, including a 4-3 OT victory in Vancouver last time out. With the "Alberta Swing" still to go (Calgary/Edmonton B2B,) aftrer this though, not only do we feel that this is a natural "letdown" spot for the visitors after the extended winning run and road victory as a dog, but also a "look ahead" to that tough two-game swing. Add it all together, and then also take into account the great price of the home side here, and the play is indeed on Seattle!

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10* OVER Rockets/Suns (WEST-CONF NON-DIV TOM)

Both teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games, but all signs point to more of a wide-open shootout finally here in the opener of two straight between the clubs. Houston is 25-33, but only 5-23 on the road, while Phoenix is 33-24, including 18-11 at home. After back-to-back losses to OKC, the Rockets have now seen the total go "under" the number in three straight, but that's significant to note, as Houston has in fact seen the total go "over" the number in seven of its last ten after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. The Suns have played to four straight "unders," but after three whole nights off between games, we're expecting the well-rested home side to come out fired up here and to push the pace from start to finish. Finally note that the Suns play with revenge after a 114-110 loss to Houston just last week as three-point favorites, and note that Phoenix has seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of its last 12 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS loss as a favorite vs. an opponent; this number is low, the play is the "over!" 

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10* Nuggets (WEST-CONF NON-DIV GOM)

Gentlemen, on one side of the court we have the Sacramento Kings, who are 33-24 overall, but who are off a 121-110 loss at home to Miami just last night.

And on the other end of the court we have the defending champs, who have won three straight and who have had two whole days off to prepare for this one.

We're giving this one the good ol "eye test" here on Wednesday night, and rolling with the revenge-minded home side. 

The Nuggets have come out of the all-star break and playing at a really high level. 

Three straight wins, three straight covers. Tomorrow they have Miami coming to town, so it's not really a "look ahead" spot whatsoever. 

Revenging their 102-98 loss to the Kings here at home in the middle of the month is the much more important thing to take care off. 

That result though is important for two different reasons, as Denver is 7-3 against the spread in its last ten in trying to avenge a straight-up and against-the-spread home loss vs. an opponent, and it's also 3-1 against-the-spread in its last four in trying to avenge a home loss an opponent in which it was held to 99 or fewer points in.

Damantas Sabonis looked good with a triple-double for the Kings last night, but difficult to see him repeat that performance here in the second game of the back-to-back scenario, facing the Joker in the thin air of Denver. Jokic had a triple-double in the Nuggets latest victory, finishing with 32 points, 16 boards and 16 assists.

The Kings defense looked really bad last night against a Miami Heat squad that averages only 110.6 points per game, which ranks 27th in the league currently.

Guys, another great "situational" play here that's backed by several strong trends, so lay the points with confidence, the play is indeed on the Nuggets!

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10* Missouri State (MISSOURI VALLEY GOY)

We base our picks on many different things. This one here is just a great situational play, that's also backed by some strong supporting ATS trends that can't be ignored. Missouri State is 15-14, but only 4-9 on the road, while Illinois State is 14-15 overall, including 9-6 at home. The Bears will be highly motivated here to stop a two game SU slide. Missouri State has now lost four straight ATS, but note despite a 93-78 setback at Belmont as a 7.5-point dog, the Bears are still 8-4 ATS in their last 12 after three or more ATS losses in a row. The biggest reason though behind this play is 'revenge.' The Bears lost 69-60 as seven-point favorites at home to Illinois State back in January, and note that Missouri State is a near-perfect 4-1 ATS in its last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. The Redbirds three-game win streak came to an end last time out in a 48-45 loss at Bradley, and off that "near hit" as a 12.5-point dog, all signs point to a letdown here finally in our opinion. While the outright is possible, the official call will be to grab as many points as you can with Missouri State!

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10* OVER Jackets/Rangers (METROPOLITAN TOY)

The stars and the planets have aligned for a very offensive affair here in our opinion. Columbus is 19-28-9-1, including only 9-13-5-1 on the road, while the Rangers are 39-17-1-2, including 20-7-0-0 at home. The Jackets are off the 4-2 win here two nights ago, but note that the Rangers have seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last ten in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. New York has now seen the total go "under" in five straight, but that's significant to note as well as the Rangers have in fact seen the total "over" the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to five or more straight "unders" in a row. Expect a much faster-paced and ultimately higher-scoring affair here in the re-match; this number is low, the play is the "over!" 

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10* Blazers (NON-CONFERENCE GOM)

On one side we have the Miami Heat, who are 32-25 overall, including 17-12 on the road, and who are arguably playing their best basketball of the season, off four straight road wins, all as an underdog, including just last night with a 121-110 win over the Kings in Sacramento just last night.

On the other end of the court we have the Portland Trailblazers, who are just 15-41 overall. They've struggled at home and on the road, but after eight straight SU losses and seven straight ATS setbacks, we feel this is a great spot for Portland to, at the very least, sneak away with a comfortable cover finally.

We're primarily situational handicappers, and this one falls right into our wheelhouse. 

These teams haven't played since 2022 and the Blazers beat the Heat on the road in that game. 

But after the four straight road victories, including the impressive one just last night, and with a game at the defending champs up next, going to Denver to end this six-game road swing, we say that not only is this a natural "letdown" spot, but also clearly a "look-ahead" spot. Would anyone fault the Heat for looking ahead to that one after this stretch of great play.

Clearly Miami will be resting players in anticipation of that one. 

When you add those two factors together, letdown + look-ahead, you get "TRAP GAME." 

Doesn't set up any better as being a "TRAP" game here in our opinion as situational cappers.

We're also contrarians, and with 60% of the early public money on the visitors, that also appeals to our contrarian side.

The Blazers are just 9-19 at home. They're off the 93-80 loss at home to lowly Charlotte as 3.5-point favorites. Pretty much the lowest of the low right now for Portland. 

But Portland has in fact responded well in this spot for bettors by going 4-1 against the spread in its last five after a SU and ATS home loss as a favorite in which its been held to 85 or fewer points in.

We base our picks on many different things. Some times it involves injuries. Other times we base our picks on really strong trends. Other times its based on situations.

This particular pick is a fantastic "SITUATIONAL" play and while we'll stop short in calling for the outright upset, everything points to a much tighter battle than what the oddsmakers are suggesting here, so the official call will be indeed to grab as many points as you can with the Blazers!

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10* Heat/Kings OVER (NON-CONF TOM)

These teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but all signs finally point to more of an offensive affair in this contest on Monday in Sacramento. Miami is 31-25 overall, including 16-12 on the road, while Sacramento is 32-23 overall, including 16-9 at home. Miami is 4-1 SU in its last five and it's seen the total go "over" in five straight. But that's significant to note here, as Sacramento has in fact seen the total go "over" the number in seven of its last ten after playing to five or more straight "unders" in a row. The Kings have won three in a row, including a 123-107 win at the Clippers just last night. Now on the second game of the B2B scenario, we expect the defense to take a step-back, not the offense for these efficient scorers. With each team pushing the pace like we anticipate, all signs point to this total flying "over" the number sooner, rather than later!

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10* Kings (PACIFIC DIV. GOM)

With nearly 70% of the early public money on the home side favorite, we're for sure going full on contrarian with this one. Sacramento is 32-23 overall, including 16-14 on the road, while LA is 37-18 overall, including 20-6 at home. The Kings have won two straight. They couldn't cover the large 10-point spread at home to the Spurs, as they took the foot off the gas and got caught looking ahead to this one. The Kings now kick off four straight vs. incredibly tough competition, as they face Miami, Denver and Minnesota after this. They play with revenge as well after a 119-99 loss here in December, and note that the Kings are in fact 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS divisional road loss vs. an opponent. The Clippers haven't been at their best of late, as they've been alternating wins/losses over their last seven games. They're off a 101-95 victory at Memphis, but with a high-profile game vs. the Lakers up next, they could be caught "looking ahead" here as well. While the outright is possible, our official call is to grab as many points as you can here with Sacramento!

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10* OVER Canes/Sabres (EAST-CONF NON-DIV TOY)

As primarily "situational" cappers, this one falls right into our wheelhouse. Both sides have been playing to some lower-scoring contests of late, but everything now finally points to more of a wide-open "shootout" here on Sunday night in our opinion. Carolina is coming off a 2-1 home loss to Dallas. It's scored just two goals in its last two games. Note though that the Hurricanes have seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of its last 11 off a home loss as a favorite. They beat the Sabres 6-2 back on December 2nd, and while we're expecting another high-scoring game this time around, we believe it'll be much more competitive. The Sabres have won two straight. Both were on the road vs. "lesser" competition. Looking to avenge the earlier loss and to add to the winning run, everything points to the home side keeping the foot on the gas from start to finish. This number is low, the play is the "over!" 

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10* UNDER Youngstown State/Wisconsin Green Bay (HORIZON LEAGUE TOM)

Youngstown State is 20-9, but just 7-7 on the road. Wisconsin Green Bay is 17-11 overall, including 10-3 at home. The Penguins are off an 84-80 OT win over Milwaukee Wisconsin. They've seen the total go "over" the number in seven straight now. They play with revenge after an 84-83 loss to the Phoenix as 11-point favorites at home back on February 10th, and note that Youngstown State has in fact seen the total go "under" the number in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. The Phoenix though have lost two straight since that upset, both as favorites. They've failed to reach the 60-point plateau in either. We have a hard time seeing them mustering much of an offensive attack this afternoon either; for all the reasons listed above, the play is the "under!" 

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10* Kraken (ASSASSIN)

Here is a fantastic situational wager on Seattle. Minnesota is off a 4-2 win as a +160 dog in Edmonton just last night. It enjoys three whole nights off after this final road contest, before an important home game vs. Carolina. Can anyone say "letdown/look-ahead spot?! Seattle plays with revenge after a 3-0 defeat here to Minnesota back in December, and note that the Kraken are 4-1 in their last five in trying to avenge a home loss as an underdog vs. an opponent. All things considered, we feel this to be the very definition of "great line value;" the play is indeed on Seattle!

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10* Austin FC (MLS GOM)

Ultimately we feel that Austin FC should/could in fact be a much larger favorite in this spot. The home side will be looking to get out to a quick start this season after last year's disappointment, winning once in its last 11 games and finishing 12th in the Western Conference. Minnesota only finished two points ahead of Austin, and it was terrible on the road. It also struggled in the off-season, winning just once in four games. Seven of Austin's ten wins last year came at home and at this price, we feel we're getting fantastic line value; lay the price with confidence with Austin in regulation!

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10* Pistons (EAST-CONF GOW)

This one just sets up really for Detroit in a lot of ways. Outright win? Possibly, but in a contest that we do see being extremely competitive until the final horn sounds, are recommendation for this contest will be to grab as many points as you can. Orlando is 31-25, but just 13-17 on the road. Detroit is 8-47 overall, and only 4-23 SU at home. But the Pistons are 13-14 ATS. Regardless, after B2B victories, including a 116-109 win at Cleveland as a 5.5-point dog last time out, we're expecting Orlando to have a letdown here, while also getting caught "looking ahead" to its much more high-profile game at Atlanta tomorrow night. The Pistons play with the added incentive of "revenge" as well after falling 111-99 to Orlando earlier. The Pistons have lost four straight SU, and three straight ATS, but note that Detroit is 7-3 ATS in its last ten after three or more ATS losses in a row. Grab the points, the play is indeed on Detroit!

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10* BC/NC State UNDER (ACC TOM)

We base our picks on many different things. This particular one is just a great "situational" play. We're primarily situational handicappers, and we're also contrarian at heart. This particular play definitely falls right into our "wheel house." Both sides have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but all signs point to a much tighter, and ultimately lower-scoring battle here between these two hungry sides. BC is 15-11 overall, but just 4-5 on the road, while NC State is 16-10 overall, including 11-4 at home. BC is off an 84-76 loss at FSU and it's now seen the total go "over" in three straight. Note thought that the Eagles have in fact seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. They lost 84-78 in OT at home to the Wolfpack, and note as well that BC has seen the total go "under" the number in five of its last six in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home conference home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. NC State is off an 87-73 home loss to Syracuse as a seven-point fav, and note that the Wolfpack have seen the total go "under" the number in seven of their last ten after a SU/ATS conference home loss as a favorite. With each side doubling down defensively like we suspect, everything does indeed point to the "under" as the correct call in this one!

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10* Crystal Palace (EPL GOW)

Crystal Palace needs a win here after going winless in its last three league outings. Last time out it played to a 1-1 draw with Everton. But here's the perfect opponent to get untracked against, as the visitors are winless in their last eight games and enter off a pathetic 5-0 home loss to Arsenal last weekend. CP is in 15th, while Burnley is in 15th. Palace matches up well in this as it scored the 2-0 away win in the reverse fixture in November. We're expecting a similar outcome here; lay the price, the play is indeed on Crystal Palace!

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10* Bucks (ASSASSIN)

The Bucks are 35-21, including 12-14 on the road, while Minnesota is 39-16, including 19-5 at home. The Bucks come into the second half ready to get back on track after a tumultuous first. Regardless, they play with revenge here after a 129-105 loss at home to Minnesota back in early February, and note that the Bucks are 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. The Wolves went into the break on the heels of four straight wins, but we say the break came at the wrong time for the home side. Rest = rust in its case. But it's going to be beneficial for the beleaguered Bucks, who we feel have a legit shot at winning this one outright; that said, the official call is to grab as many points as you can with Milwaukee!

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10* UNDER Wild/Oilers (WEST-CONF NON-DIV TOM)

This is a great "situational" play. This one sets up well to be a lower-scoring defensive battle in our opinion. Both sides have been playing to several higher-scoring battles of late, but the overall situation that each team finds itself coming into this one, combined with some strong supporting O/U ATS stats, does all point to this evening's contest being a much more defensive battle. Minnesota is just 26-24 after a 6-3 loss at Winnipeg last time out. Previous to that it beat Vancouver 10-7. But with a contest at Seattle tomorrow night, we see the visiting side playing a more defensive "trap" style of contest this evening, so as to be able to reserve some gas for tomorrow night's difficult affair. The Wild play with revenge as well after a high-scoring 4-3 loss at Edmonton in December. After their 6-5 OT home loss to the Oilers, the Bruins have seen the total go "over" the number in five straight, but that's also significant for us to take note of, as Boston has in fact seen the total go "under" the number in seven of its last ten after playing to five or more straight "overs" in a row; this number is high, the play is indeed on the "under!" 

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10* Mount St. Mary's (MAAC GOM)

We love the way this one sets up for the home side. This spread should be a lot larger for the revenge-minded home side. The Mountaineers are 11-15, while Saint Peter's is 13-11. The Peacocks are off a 59-53 road win at Iona as seven-point dogs, but note that Saint Peter's is in fact just 3-7 ATS in its last ten off a SU/ATS conference road win as an underdog. the Mountaineers return home off two straight road losses, but they play with revenge after a 70-64 loss at Saint Peter's back in early January, and that's definitely significant for us to take note of here as well as the Mountaineers are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference road loss vs. an opponent; lay the short points with confidence, the play is Mount St. Mary's!

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10* Nuggets (NON-CONF GOW)

With the second half now underway, we're expecting the rested defending champs to send a message to the rest of the league that they're still the "big dog" in town. Washington is just 9-45 overall, including 6-22 on the road. Amazingly the Wizards though are 18-8-2 ATS away from friendly confines, as they've consistently been undervalued over the first half. But we're not buying it here. Denver is 21-5 SU at home. The Nuggets went into the break on the heels of three straight SU/ATS losses, but note that Denver is 7-3 ATS in its last ten after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row. Look for the home side to make an example out of the Wizards, who we expect will throw in the white towel early as they prepare for their game at Oklahoma City tomorrow night; lay the points, the play is DENVER.

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10* UNDER Bruins/Flames (ASSASSIN)

This is a great situational play. The Bruins have played three straight extra-period games, and gone 2-1 in the process. All three games went "over" the number, but note that Boston has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. One of those wins came just last night in a tough 6-5 OT win at Edmonton. Now playing the second game of the B2B here, we're absolutely expecting fatigue to be an issue. Boston actually plays with revenge as well after a 4-1 loss at home to Calgary at the start of the month. The Flames snapped a three-game slide with a 6-3 win over Winnipeg here last time out, but we're for sure expecting a more methodical pace here with Boston in town; this number is high, the play is the "under!" 

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10* New Mexico State (CONF-USA GOM)

We base our picks on many different things. This particular one sets up well from a situational stand point. These teams are fairly evenly matched, but New MExico State has a clear "home court" advantage here, while also playing with the "revenge factor." Those two big factors working in favor of the home side will prove to be the difference in our opinion. Sam Houston State is 15-11, but only 4-9 on the road, while New Mexico State is just 11-15 overall, but 11-1 at home. The Aggeis play with revenge after a 79-67 SU/ATS road loss at Sam Houston State back in late January, and note that New Mexico State is 4-1 ATS in its last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference road loss as an underdog vs. an opponent; for all the reasons listed above, the play is indeed on New Mexico State!

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10* UNDER Bruins/Oilers (NON-CONF TOM)

These teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but all signs point to much more of a lower-scoring affair this time around in our opinion. Boston is 33-12-9-2, including 15-5-5-1 on the road, while Edmonton is 33-18-1-0 overall, including 17-6-1-0 at home. The Bruins just snapped a four-game slide with a 4-3 shootout win over Dallas, but with a game tomorrow night in Calgary, we expect the visiting side to play a more conservative defensive affair this evening. Edmonton has won two in a row. It's seen the total go "over" the number in five straight, but that's definitely significant for us to take note of here as the Oilers have in fact seen the total go "under" the number in seven of their last ten after playing to five or more straight "overs" in a row. With each team doubling-down on the defensive end like we suspect tonight, all signs do indeed point to the "under" as the correct call as far as the total is concerned!

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10* Penn State (BIG TEN GOW)

We base our picks on many different things and this particular one just sets up really well for the hungry home side in our opinion. Illinois is 19-6 overall, while Penn State is just 12-14. But the Illini have looked really pedestrian on the road as they're just 4-4 straight up away from friendly confines. The Nittany Lions on the other hand Lenny are 9-4 in front of the home town crowd. Illinois is poor on the road, and Penn State is quite good at home. Also note that this is a big game for the Nittany Lions aside from needing to stop a three-game slide, most recently a 68-49 setback at Nebraska, as the men's basketball team will return to Rec hall in University Park Pennsylvania for the first time since December 2015. So they're out of the Bryce Jordan Center and back in the 6,502-seat bandbox and we believe it will for sure provide an extra boost for the home side here in this one. One of the reasons why the Nittany Lions are getting so many points here at home is that Coach Mike Rhoades announced on Monday that leading scorer Kanye Clary is off the team due to a coach's decision, but note that the Nittany Lions have responded well in this spot for bettors, as they're 8-2 against the spread in their last ten after a SU/ATS conference loss in which they were held to 50 or fewer points in. So here's the perfect opponent to get untracked against as this Illinois defense has conceded 83, 73, 96, 75, 88 and 80 points in six Big ten Road games this year. While we do think an outrigtht win is possible, our official call will be to grab as many points as you can with Penn State!

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10* UNDER Saint Bonaventure/La Salle (A-10 TOY)

This is a great "situational" play, which is backed by some strong supporting O/U ATS trends, and all of these factors collide here and make this play strong enough to become our one and only A-10 TOY. Saint Bonaventure is 16-9 overall, but just 4-4 on the road, while La Salle is 12-14 overall, including 8-6 at home. The Bonnies have won two straight, most recently holding on for an 81-80 OT thriller at home over Davidson. St. Bonaventure has now seen the total fly "over" the number in five straight, but that's signficant for us to take note of here, as the Bonnies have in fact seen the total dip below the posted number in seven of their last ten after playing to five or more straight "overs" in a row. La Salle just snapped a five-game losing streak with an 82-81 win over UMass as a six-point dog, but note that the Explorers have seen the total go "under" the number in four of their last five off a SU/ATS conference victory as an underdog. The overall situation that each team finds itself coming into this one, combined with the above listed trends, does indeed make the "under" the correct call as far as the total is concerned in our opinion!

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10* Villanova (ASSASSIN)

As primarily a situational cappers, this one falls right into our wheel house. The Wildcats have a lot working in their favor here, and there's actually more money on Butler in fact, or there was in the early going, so that also appeals to our contrarian side. But these teams are moving in opposite directions now over the last three weeks, and the Wildcats also play with revenge here after an 88-81 OT loss at Butler as 1.5-point dogs in late January. These teams have very similar overall win/loss records, but when you look a little closer at their numbers, we find that the Wildcats also enjoy more advantages in this position. Butler is 16-10 overall, while Villanova is just 14-11. The Bulldogs though are only 3-5 straight up and 4-4 against the spread on the road. The Wildcats are 8-4 straight up at home and 7-5 against the spread, so Villanova does enjoy the home court advantage here as well. So that's two really strong factors there, the revenge factor, coupled with the documented home court advantage here where Butler has definitely struggled on the road. And then you have to look at "current form;" Butler's lost two straight, both against good teams mind you and they were both dogs in each, falling 78-72 to Marquette and 79-57 to Creighton, but Villanova has won two straight, beating Seton Hall here 80-54 before then downing the Hoyas 70-54 in Georgetown. The Wildcats looked good last time out on both ends of the floor, they were led by 14 points from TJ Bamba, but it was the defense that stole the show, going on to hold its fourth straight opponent to less than 60 points. Conversely, in their most recent loss the Bulldogs missed 14 of their final 15 shots from 3-point range. Clearly they're a well coached team under Thad Matta, but now they're going to face another red hot defense that's capable of stopping the three-point ball as well (and which plays with revenge and the home court advantage!) We expect Villanova to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish!

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10* TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC GOY)

Here is a great "situational" play. Clearly, with a spread like this the oddsmakers think these teams are evenly matched, and for the most part they really are, but there are significant situational factors working in favor of the home side that swings the pendulum to its side. Southern is 16-9, but only 6-9 on the road. Texas Southern is only 9-14 overall, but 4-3 at home. Off B2B losses and three straight ATS losses, the Tigers will be risking life and limb to get back into the win column tonight, and note that Texas Southern is 7-3 ATS in its last ten after three or more ATS losses in a row. The Tigers also play with revenge after a 58-51 loss at Southern in January. The Jaguars have won seven straight SU, but now everything finally points to a letdown here in this difficult road venue in our opinion; lay the short points, the play is on Texas Southern!

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10* OVER FAMU/Alcorn State (SWAC TOM)

These teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but we're now finally anticipating much more of a wide-open "shootout" here between these conference rivals on Monday night. FAMU is just 4-19, including only 2-12 on the road, while Alcorn State is only a slightly better 8-17 overall, including 3-3 at home. This is a game that each side will believe that it can actually win, and because of that, we're definitely expecting a faster-paced, wide-open affair. FAMU has lost five straight, but note that the Rattlers have in fact seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 12 after five or more straight losses in a row. They play with revenge as well after a 76-67 home loss to Alcorn State as 2.5-point dogs back in January, and note that the Rattlers have seen the total eclipse the posted number in three of their last four in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference home loss vs. an opponent. The Braves are coming off three straight SU/ATS victories, with all three games going "under" the number. That's also significant for us to take note of though, as Alcorn State has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last ten after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. This total is low in our opinion, the play is indeed on the "over!"  

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10* OVER Wings/Kraken (ASSASSIN)

Both teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but all signs finally point to more of a wide-open offensive battle here on Monday in our opinion. The Wings are 28-20-6-0 overall, including 13-12-1-0 on the road, while the Kraken are 23-21-6-4, including 11-9-3-1 at home. Detroit snapped a two-game slide with a 5-0 win at Calgary last time out. It's seen the total go "under" in two straight. The Wings lost to Seattle 5-4 in OT at the start of the season, but note that Detroit has seen the total go "over" the number in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge a home loss vs. an opponent. Seattle has snapped a three-game slide by winning two straight, most recent a 4-1 upset at Boston. That was three nights ago. Note that Seattle has seen the total go "over" the number in three of its last four after playing with three or more nights of rest. With each team pushing the pace like we anticipate, all signs do indeed point to this total flying "over" the number sooner, rather than later!

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10* Utah (PAC 12 GOY)

Just a great situational play here, and while we do think the outright win is a very real possibilty, the official call will be to grab as many points as you can. Utah is 15-9, including only 1-6 on the road, while UCLA is 14-11 overall, including 8-4 at home. Off three straight SU/ATS losses in a row though, we're expecting the visiting side to risk life and limb here. Utah annihilated UCLA 90-44 at home back in January, as this is just a bad matchup for the home side. And with nearly 70% of the early public money on the home side, we're definitely going full on "contrarian" for this matchup. Note as well that the Utes are 7-3 ATS in their last ten after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row. UCLA is off six straight SU wins and five straight ATS victories, but note that the Bruins are just 1-3 ATS in their last four after five or more ATS victories in a row. In a contest that we see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, we're grabbing the points; the play is Utah!

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8* Islanders puckline (DESTRUCTION)

Neither team has a home ice advantage here, as this game is being played in MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford. The Isles are 22-18-13, while the Rangers are 35-16-3. New York has won six straight, but the Isles won't be rolling over here. The Isles come in desperate to snap a two-game slide are a 2-1 shootout loss to Seattle last time out. This is the first game of the year between the clubs and we're expecting a competitive battle till the end; lay the price for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance!

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10* UNDER Murray State/Drake (MISSOURI VALLEY TOY)

These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games lately, but all signs point to much more of a defensive battle here finally in our opinion. Murray State is 11-15, including 4-6 on the road, while Drake is 21-5, including 13-0 at home. The Racers won't be rolling over here despite being a big dog, as they come in off B2B convincing victories, most recently an 82-72 win over Missouri State (note though that Murray State has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row.) Drake has won three straight, with two of the three games flying "over" the number, but note that the Bulldogs have in fact seen the total go "under" the number in seven of their last ten after three or more SU victories in a row. We think Murray State will do everything it can to slow down the pace of this one; this number is high, the play is the "under!" 

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10* Knights (ASSASSIN)

We base our picks on many different things. This particular one is based upon what we believe to be fantastic "line value" for the home side in this spot, and on "common sense." We had a free play on the Hurricanes on the puckline in their 5-1 win in Arizona last night, but now fatigue will clearly be a factor for the visitors on the second game of the B2B scenario. With a long home stretch after this, we say the visitors get caught "looking ahead." And it's Vegas that plays with revenge after a 6-3 loss at Carolina in December. Considering all of these factors, we do indeed feel this to be the very definition of "great line value;" the play is Las Vegas!

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10* FIU (CONF-USA GOY)

With nearly 70% of the early public money on Lousiana Tech, we're going the other way on this one and going full-on contrarian. That's note the only reason we think that FIU can keep this one within striking distance until the final buzzer. FIU is 8-17 overall, including just 1-9 on the road, while Louisiana Tech is 17-8 overall, including 12-1 at home. The Panthers play with revenge after a humbling 93-53 home loss to Louisiana Tech at the start of the months, and note that FIU is 7-2 ATS in its last nine in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference home loss vs. an opponent. The Bulldogs just snapped a two-game slide with a tough 63-58 win over Jacksonville State as 11-point favorites, and we're predicting them having a very difficult time again here today in covering such a large spread. For all the reasons listed above, the play is FIU!

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10* UNDER Chelseas/Man City.

These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but everything finally points to a much tighter, and ultimately lower-scoring "under" on Saturday afternoon in our opinion. Chelsea is in tenth, and Man City is second. Last weekend the Blues won 3-1, but we expect they'll be in for a "war of attrition" this weekend. The home side got past FC Copenhagen 3-1 in Champions League this week, and while confident, we don't anticipate a wide-open affair, as City will be cautious here in this spot vs. the Blues. With each side waiting for the other to make the first mistake, all signs point to this one staying well "under" the number once it's all said and done; the play is the "under!" 

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10* Georgetown (BIG EAST GOM)

This one sets up great from a situational stand point for the home side in our opinion. Villanova is 13-11 overall, but just 2-6 on the road. Georgetown is only 8-16 overall, but it's a slightly better 7-8 in front of the home town crowd. The Hoyas have lost nine straight. In each game they've been a sizeable dog. That's the case again here, but now we feel this spread is TOO large. Villanova has been trading wins and losses over its last four games and off a big 80-54 home win over Seton Hall as a six-point favorite, we think the Wildcats will once again have their hands full away from friendly confines. Yes, Villanova is the better team here, but this is a bad spot for it facing this now desperate Hoyas side. And with a home game vs. Butler up next, not only is this a potential letdown spot for the visitors, but also a "look ahead." As stated off the top, a great situational play here on the Hoyas with the points!

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10* Portland (WEST COAST GOY)

Here's a great situational play, and while we'll stop short in calling for the outright upset, everything points to the visitors taking this one "right down to the wire." Portland is 9-17, including 2-9 on the road, while San Diego is 15-11, including 10-5 at home. The Torreros have won three straight. They've covered in six straight. The general betting public is clearly very quick to back the home side here, but we'll go full on contrarian and go the other way. And with Santa Clara coming to town next, not only is this a potential letdown spot, but perhaps also a "look ahead" position as well. And when you add those two factors together you get "trap game!" Portland plays with revenge as well after an 85-81 home loss to San Diego on January 23rd. In what we anticpate will be a similar competitive battle, we're grabbing the points; the play is Portland!

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10* Warriors (ASSASSIN)

This is a great situational play. We're situational cappers at heart. We're also contrarian by nature, and with nearly 70% of the early public money on the home side, we're going full on contrarian with this one. The Warriors had won five straight unitl last night's 130-125 loss to the Clippers. They have a lot of ground to make up and can't take the foot off the gas here in this favorable position. They beat the Jazz here 129-107 just three nights ago. This is just a bad matchup for Utah, which enters off three straight losses now after last night's 138-122 loss here to the Lakers. Look for the more talented team to pull away down the stretch for the win and cover in this one; lay the short points, the play is indeed on Golden State!

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10* Leafs (BEST OF BEST)

Both teams have been playing well, but this one favors the home side in our opinion. Philly has won four straight, but with a neutral site game vs. the Devils up next, we say the visitors definitely get caught "looking ahead" here. Toronto plays Philadelphia for the first time tonight, and we expect it to come in focused on the task at hand. The Leafs are off a 4-1 win here over St. Louis, and we predict a similar outcome in this one as well; lay the price with confidence, the play is Toronto!

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10* Wild (ASSASSIN)

The Wild are playing well right now, having won three straight. We say that momentum gets carried over here. They also play with revenge after a 6-0 loss at home to Arizona just last month, and note that the Wild are 7-3 in their last ten in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Arizona has lost six straight and is going to lose another here to this red hot Wild side. All things considered, we feel this to be the very definition of "great line value;" lay the price, the play is Minnesota!

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10* Spurs (REVENGE ASSASSIN)

We think the Spurs will hang around late and make this one interesting. San Antonio just snapped a lengthy slide with a 122-99 win at Toronto and we think it'll keep that confidence and momentum rolling here. They play with revenge after a 144-119 loss here on December 23rd, and note that the Spurs are 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent. Dallas has won five straight, but with the All-Star break right after this, we say the home side takes the foot off the gas in the second half and gets caught "looking ahead," grab the points, the play is San Antonio!

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10* Presbyterian (BIG SOUTH GOY)

We base our picks on many different things. Many different methodologies are employed daily. This particular one is an unreal "situational" play in our opinion. Presbyterian is 12-14, including just 4-7 on the road, while UNC Asheville is 17-9, including 10-1 at home. The Blue Hose though have quietly been playing their best basketball of the season, and we expect that momentum to get carried over here another game, having won three of their last four and covered in four straight! They play with revenge as well after falling 84-80 at home to UNC Asheville back on January 6th, and note that the Hose are 7-2 ATS in their last nine in trying to avenge a conference home loss vs. an opponent. No outright, but much closer than expected; grab the points, the play is indeed on Presbyterian!

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10* Air Force (TOP CONTRARIAN)

While we clearly feel the outright win is possible, in the end our official call here will be to grab as many points as you can between these evenly matched sides. This is one of, if not the biggest contrarian play on the board with nearly 80% of the early public money on the home side. That raises red flags for us here, as we do definitely feel that SJSU is overvalued in this spot. Air Force has been competitive on the road this year as evidenced by its 5-4 ATS road record. In comparison, the Trojans are 4-6 ATS at home. SJSU won this game 70-67 as a 1.5-point dog on the road last month, and now the visitors have a chance for some sweet redemption. As stated off the top, the outright is clearly possible, but in the end let's grab the points with the revenge-minded visitors; the play is indeed on Air Force!

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10* Heat (ASSASSIN)

Milwaukee is 35-19, including 23-6 at home, while Miami is 28-25 overall, including 13-12 on the road. With nearly 75% of the early public money on the home side, we're going full on contrarian here for sure and going the other way. The Bucks are off B2B quality victories, including a 112-95 win here just last night vs. the defending champs, and all signs point to a predictable letdown here in the second game of the B2B scenario in our opinion. Note as well that Milwaukee is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten off a SU/ATS home victory in which it held its opponent to 95 or fewer points in as well. The Heat play with revenge as well after a 131-124 SU/ATS home loss back in November, and note that Miami is a solid 3-1 ATS in its last four in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as an underdog vs. an opponent. In a contest that we see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, we're grabbing the points; the play is Miami!

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8* Islanders (DESTRUCTION)

Here's a great "situational" play. No need to overthink this one. In fact, we feel that New York could/should in fact be a much larger fav in this spot. Seattle is off a 3-1 loss at New Jersey just last night. Clearly fatigue will be a factor for the visitors. New York Plays with revenge after a 4-3 shootout loss in Seattle at the start of the season. The Isles have had two whole nights off to absorb a lacklustre 5-2 loss here to Calgary, but they won't be overlooking this Pacific division opponent this evening; lay the price, the play is indeed on New York!

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10* OVER Knicks/Rockets (NON-CONF TOW)

Both teams have been involved in several lower-scoring contests, but everything finally points to more of a wide-open shootout here in our opinion between these non-conference opponents on Monday night. The Knicks are 33-20, including 14-12 on the road, while Houston is 23-29, including 18-9 at home. The Knicks will be eager to get back on track after back-to-back home losses. Both games went "over" the number. But it's Houston that plays with revenge after a 109-94 loss in the Big Apple in mid-January, and note that the Rockets have seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of their last 12 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss in which they were held to 95 or fewer points in. With each team pushing the pace like we suspect, all signs point to this total flying "over" the number once it's all said and done!

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10* OVER Coyotes/Flyers (ASSASSIN)

Both teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but all signs finally point to more of a wide-open "shootout" here between these non-conference opponents on Monday night in our opinon. Arizona is 23-23-4-0, including just 8-13-4-0 on the road, while Philadelphia is 28-19-4-2 overall, but only 13-12-1-1 at home. The Coyotes have lost five straight. They're off a tough 5-4 OT loss at Nashville last time out, but we can expect that offensive momentum to be carried over here. Philly has won three straight, and it's also seen the total go "under" in three straight. That's significant to note however, as Philly has in fact seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. With each team opening things up from the "get go," all signs point to this total flying well "over" the posted number before the final horn blares!

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10* UNDER Lehigh/Bucknell.

This is a fantastic "situational" play in our estimation. Both sides have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but we feel that this particular battle here tonight will be a much tigher, and ultimatley lower-scoring affair here on Monday. These are two teams in need of a victory and we expect this great sense of competition to translate into a scrappy defensive-contest on the floor. Lehigh is 8-15 overall, including just 3-10 on the road, while Bucknell is a slightly better 10-15 overall, but only 4-7 at home. The Mountain Hawks are off a 94-90 OT win over Lafayette and we believe they'll still be fatigued here, so that definitely plays a big factor here. Bucknell actually upset Lehigh 86-80 on the road back in January, and note that the Mountain Hawks have seen the total go "under" the number in four of their last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Look for the rematch to be a lower-scoring "under" once it's all said and done!

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10* UNDER 49ers/Chiefs (TOM)

Two great offenses. Two great defenses. Honestly, it would not be difficult for us to write a convincing argument for this to be a high-scoring game, but for a number of different reasons we are expecting Super Bowl 58 to be a very defensive affair. San Francisco averages 28.9 PPG, which ranks third, while allowing 17.5, which ranks third as well. Kansas City only averages 21.8 PPG though, which is 15th overall. The big news for the Chiefs in the postseason and throughout the regular season as well though has been their tough defensive play, as they enter the big game conceding 17.3, ranked second in the league. Despite having Patrick Mahomes under center, the last thing that KC wants to do here is to turn this into a "track meet" with the hungry 49ers. Instead they'll look to suffocate this offense and control the clock. Mahomes won't feel nearly as much pressure as his counterpart and should expertly be able to "control" the pace of this one. In our opinion Super Bowl 58 will be decided in the trenches and by field position and in a contest like that, the "under" becomes the savvy call as far as the total is concerned!

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10* Heat (ASSASSIN)

The Heat are on fire right now and we think they have a legit shot at winning this game outright afte rwinning four of their last five. They play with revenge as well after a humbling 143-110 loss here at home to Boston a couple weeks ago as 8.5-point dogs, and note that the Heat are 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as a dog vs. an opponent. Boston has won three straight, but with a home and home set with the Nets upcoming, we think they also get caught looking ahead here; grab the points, the play is Miami!

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10* Tulsa (SUPERBOWL BANKROLL BUILDER)

While we do think an outright win is possible, in the end we'll recommend to grab as many points as you can here. UAB is 15-8, but only 4-4 on the road. With nearly 75% of the early public money on the Blazers, we're definitely going full on contrarian here. UAB is probably the better overall team here vs. 12-10 Tulsa, but note that the Golden Hurricane are 11-3 at home. Tulsa comes in under the radar here after back-to-back losses, but super hungry to get untracked and we think this is the perfect opponent to do that against, as the Blazers have struggled at times on the road already this season. UAB is off a tough 76-73 OT win over FAU as a 5.5-point dog, and note that the Blazers are in fact just 1-4 ATS in their last five off a SU/ATS conference win as a dog. Grab the points, the play is indeed on Tulsa!

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10* Kings (REVENGE ASSASSIN)

LA plays for the first time since the break. It plays with revenge after a 3-2 shootout loss here to the Oilers in December, and note that the Kings are 7-3 in their last ten in trying to avenge a home loss vs. an opponent. Edmonton is off the 5-3 win just last night at Anaheim, and we believe the visitors will be predictably fatigued; great overall line value here on LA!

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10* USC (BAIL-OUT)

While clearly the outright win isn't out of the question, in the end we'll recommend to grab as many points as you can in this one. With nearly 65% of the early public money on the home side, we're pulling a full on contrarian here. USC is 9-14 overall, including just 1-7 on the road, while Stanford is 11-11 overall, and 8-4 at home. The Trojans are off an 83-77 OT loss at Cal, but beat Stanford 93-79 the last time these teams faced off. The Cardinal have lost two straight, including an 82-74 setback here to UCLA as 4.5-point favorites last time out. The home side is the one overvalued here, as we expect the hungry Trojans to pull off the minor upset here on the road in what we feel is a very favorable matchup for them; grab the points, the play is USC! 

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10* Spurs (TOP CONTRARIAN)

Outright win?! Anything is possible, but in the end we'll recommend to grab as many points as possible. The Spurs are terrible obviously. They're off a 127-111 loss at Orlando. That's three straight ATS setbacks, but note that San Antonio is in fact 7-3 ATS in its last ten after three or more ATS losses in a row. Brooklyn is off three straight SU/ATS losses as well, most recently falling 118-95 to the Cavaliers. This is a game that the Spurs can legit win outright, but in a contest that we see being decided by whichever of these hungry sides has its hands on the ball last, we're grabbing the points; the play is San Antonio!

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10* NC State (ACC GOM)

While we're stopping short in calling for the outright victory, all signs point to a much tighter battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe in our opionion. Wake Forest is 15-7, but 12-0 at home. It's now overvalued here though in our opinion. NC State is 15-8, but only 3-3 on the road. NC State beat Wake 83-76 at home in mid January and we're expecting another "nail-biter" here; grab the points, the play is NC State!

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10* EPL GOY on Tottenham.

Tottenham is tough to beat at home. Espcially in EPL action. The Hotspurs have won four straight in front of the home town crowd in league play and we're expecting that streak to continue here. Tottenham played to a disappointing 2-2 draw with Everton last weekend, while Brighton won 4-1 over M23 derby foe Crystal Palace. Tottenham is now in fifth, just two points behind the Lions, so that puts added importance onto this week's contest. Yes they haven't kept a clean home sheet since October, but they've produced four straight outright wins at home, and nothing is going to change here vs. the Seagulls. Brighton ranks eighth and while Europe is still a possibility, we say it's in well over its head here; lay the price for Tottenham to deliver at home in regulation!

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10* OVER Pens/Wild (NON-CONF TOW)

Both teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but all signs finally point to more of a wide-open shootout in our opinion here in Minnesota on Friday night. Pittsburgh has seen the total go "under" in three straight after its most recent 3-0 win, but note that the Pens have seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. Minnesota snapped a two-game slide with a 2-1 win at Chicago last time out and it's also seen the total go "under" in three straight, which is also significant for us to take note of, as Minnesota has seen the total go "over" the number in four of its last five after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. This number is low, the play is the "over!"

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10* SDSU (TOP CONTRARIAN)

With nearly 70% of the early public money on Nevada, this one is simple for us here on Friday night, as this opportunity falls directly into our "wheelhouse." Both teams are 18-5 and in a contest that we see being decided by whichever of these hungry and talented sides has its hands on the ball last, we're going to recommend to grab as many points as you can. SDSU beat Nevada 71-59 at home in mid-January and this is simply a terrible matchup for the Wolfpack. Consider "sprinkling" a little on the ML, but the official call is to indeed grab as many points as you can with SDSU!

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10* 76ers (SHOCKER)

The 76ers continue to try and adjust to life without star center Joel Embiid, but this particular matchup now definitely favors Philly in our opinion. The Hawks are just 10-15 on the road, while the 76ers are 17-9 at home. Atlatna is off two straight losses and with a home game vs. lowly Houston tomorrow, we believe the visitors get caught "looking ahead." Philly plays with revenge after a 139-132 OT loss as a favorite on the road back in January to the Hawks, and note that the 76ers are in fact a wallet-expanding 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. While we think the outright victory is possible, in the end we'll recommend to grab as many points as you can with Philadelphia!

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10* Lakers (ASSASSIN)

With nearly 75% of the early public money on the visitors, we'll go full on contrarian here and go the other way with the hungry home side. Denver is 35-16, but a much more pedestrian 14-12 on the road. The Lakers are 28-25 overall, but 18-8 at home. LA returns home from a 4-2 road trip, including winning three straight to close out. With two days rest and playing with revenge after a 119-107 road loss in Denver at the start of the year, we love the way this one sets up for the revenge-minded home side. Denver is off two straight home wins over lowly Portland, but its last road excursion resulted in a 105-100 loss at OKC. In a contest that we see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, we're grabbing the points; the play is indeed on LA!

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10* Hurricanes (REVENGE ASSASSIN)

Both teams need a win here after starting the second half winless. Colorado is 0-2, while Carolina is 0-1. Colorado hasn't been great on the road this year, it fell 2-1 in OT at New York, before then falling 5-3 at New Jersey the following night. With games at Florida and Washington on the horizon, the visitors get caught looking ahead as well. Carolina lost 3-2 at home to a red hot Vancouver team. It plays with revenge here though after a 6-4 loss at Colorado at the start of the season. Look for home ice advantage to prove to be the difference-maker in this one and lay the reasonable price with confidence on the revenge-minded Hurricanes!

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