This is a 10* play UNDER NY Islanders-Pittsburgh

The Penguins are down 0-3 in this series and have barely led in any of the three games. They've clearly been outplayed by the upstart Islanders and it might be time to start thinking about summer tee times in Pittsburgh. The Penguins simply can't get anything going offensively, having been held to two goals in the last two losses. The Islanders are doing a great job of forechecking and blocking shots, which is what made them one of the league's biggest surprises this year. Obviously, it's also helpful to have a goaltender playing at the level that Robin Lehner is right now. New York's netminder has stopped all but five of the 103 shots he's seen in the series. Lehner and Thomas Griess were instrumental in the Islanders giving up the fewest goals in the league in the regular season. Even if Pittsburgh is finally able to check into the win column, it'll be tough. Expect a low scoring Game 4. The Under is 44-18-2 in the Islanders past 64 games. It's 16-4-1 the Penguins' last 21 games. Play UNDER New York-Pittsburgh

AAA

This is a 10* play on PHILADELPHIA

Forget about the talk about cell phones, Philadelphia was flat out embarrassed on its home court in Game 1, losing to the Nets 111-102. Aside from early in the 1st quarter, the Sixers never led and were down by as many 17. They should bounce back for Game 2. They certainly aren't likely to miss 22 of 25 three-pointers again like they did Saturday. Joel Embiid's knee remains a question mark, but it's hard not to like the Sixers in this spot considering a 31-11 SU home record and they are 31-15 ATS L46 here against teams that have losing road records. Brooklyn is still only 20-22 straight up on the road this year and is probably "content" having taken Game 1. The Nets got 59 points from their bench in Game 1. Similar to Philly's woeful three-point shooting, that is unlikely to be repeated tonight. The 76ers are still the better team and should win comfortably at home. Play on PHILADELPHIA 

AAA

This is a 10* play on MILWAUKEE

St. Louis faces a tall order having to go from Mexico to Miller Park in Milwaukee in a 24-hour span. Awaiting them will be a Brewers club that is already 3-1 against the Cards this year. That series was also played here in Milwaukee. Now we went against the Brewers (to great success) Sunday as they went down 7-1 out in Los Angeles. But that should not cloud the fact that the Brewers won the first two games of that series. The Dodgers were desperate yesterday (had lost six in a row), which is why we went so big on them. Both of tonight's starters will be making their second start of the year against the respective opponents and each hopes the second time around goes better than the first. For Milwaukee, Peralta allowed four runs in three innings to St. Louis in a 9-5 loss on 3.29. The following day, Hudson gave up three home runs in 4 1/3 innings as the Cardinals lost 4-2. Milwaukee is a REALLY good home team. That's confirmed by a 43-15 WL record when priced between -125 and -175 on the money line the last three seasons. Play MILWAUKEE 

AAA

This is an 8* play OVER Baltimore-Boston

In celebration of the Boston Marathon, we expect plenty of runs to be scored in this early start Monday. This is the finale of a four-game set that started Friday. Boston has won 2 of 3, including 4-0 on Sunday. But in terms of runs allowed this season, these teams are the two worst. They're both 6-10, something that Red Sox could not possibly have expected. It was a 9-5 loss Saturday. But Boston is a huge favorite here as they'll go up against Dan Straily, who struggled mightily in his first start of the year. He gave up five runs in 3 1/3 IP and allowed two home runs. Yesterday's game may have gone Under, but Baltimore is still 11-5 Over in all games while Boston is 10-5-1.  The Red Sox go with Hector Velazquez, who may not be expected to go long considering he went just three innings in his only other start. Going into yesterday, the Red Sox were giving up 6.5 runs per game. They were averaging 5.7 themselves. Play OVER Baltimore-Boston

AAA

This is a 10* play on HOUSTON

Houston ended up finishing fourth in the Western Conference, but this was one of the hottest teams in the league down the stretch. They'd won and covered six in a row before losing by one to Oklahoma City in the final regular season game. That one loss is what dropped them from third to fourth and while it means playing a gritty Utah team, the Rockets simply have too much talent to falter here. No team was better in the second half of the season. They went 20-5 posting the best net efficiency rating (+10.7) as they were second overall in both offensive and defensive efficiency. James Harden leads all players in scoring with a 36.1 points per game average this season. Remember the Rockets eliminated the Jazz from last year's playoffs, winning in just five games. The four wins were all of the double digit variety and came by an average of 14.5 points per game. Play on HOUSTON

AAA

This is a 10* play on TAMPA BAY

Columbus is up 2-0 in this best of seven series with Tampa Bay and there are no words to describe just how shocking it would be were the Blue Jackets to advance. The Lightning put together one of the all-time great regular seasons, whether you're talking about offense or simply winning. They won 62 games and had 21 more points than the next best team. There were four separate win streaks of at least seven games. They turned in the highest power play percentage in league history (28.1%) and averaged 3.93 goals per game, the most by any team in any season since 1995-96. But since taking a 3-1 lead in Game 1, it has all gone wrong with Columbus outscoring them 9-1. The series now moves to Ohio, but the Lightning can still avoid infamy and we aren't about to count them out. They outscored the Blue Jackets 17-3 in the three regular season meetings and at no point in the regular season did they ever lose three in a row. This is actually just the third time they've dropped two straight. Even without Nikita Kucherov, the Lightning get it done here. Play on TAMPA BAY

AAA

This is an 8* play on ARIZONA

Arizona hopes to avoid what would be a 4-game sweep, at home no less, here vs. San Diego. They have Zack Greinke on the mound at what looks to be an incredibly cheap price. Note all three losses in this series have been by one run. Part of the reason Greinke is so cheap Sunday is he hasn't been that effective so far this year. A 7.16 ERA is not what you'd expect to see from him after three starts, but that's where he's at. However, Greinke is still feeling the effects of a very poor first start. He's been better in the last two, one of which was against the Padres. He had a 10-0 strikeout to walk ratio over six innings, holding SD to just three runs. San Diego has been one of Grienke's favorite opponents in his career as he's 12-2 against them lifetime with a 2.29 ERA in 23 starts. Greinke even homered TWICE in that last start vs. San Diego. One again, he'll be opposed by Eric Lauer, who has struggled some in his last two starts, giving up 9 runs in 11 innings and three home runs. We just don't see the Padres being able to finish off the sweep here. Play on ARIZONA

AAA

This is a 10* Play on the DODGERS

The Dodgers are reeling right now, having lost six straight. They were swept out in St. Louis to start the week and now are on the verge of suffering the same fate at the hands of Milwaukee, this time at home. But fear not fans of Dodger Blue, we believe you're team is going to check back into the win column today, led by Ross Stripling, who has pitched better than his 0-1 record shows. Speaking of better than their record, the Dodgers are +16 in runs scored vs. allowed (a NL best), despite being only 8-8. On the other hand Milwaukee has managed to go 10-5 despite giving up the same number of runs that they have scored. Only the Mariners, who are off to a record-setting start, have scored more runs this year than the Dodgers. And remember LA doesn't have a DH in its lineup. Look for a lineup averaging 6.8 runs per game at Chavez Ravine to get to Brewers starter Jhoulys Chacin, who they know well from his time in Colorado and Arizona. Even though he allowed only three runs in 6 1/3 innings his last start, Chacin still took the loss as he issued more walks (3) and gave up more home runs (2) than he had strikeouts (1). Play LA DODGERS

AAA

This is an 8* play OVER OKC-Portland

All four NBA playoff games stayed Under on Saturday. But if the first game on Sunday (Indiana-Boston) doesn't stop the trend, then this one definitely well. Third seeded Portland has lost just two games since St. Patrick's Day, going 11-2 their last 13, and both losses were on the road. Oklahoma City finished as the 6-seed thanks to a five-game win streak to end the regular season, which included a huge win over Houston that shook up the standings in the Western Conference. Both teams can score as they average a near identical number of points per game. OKC is at 114.5 while Portland is 114.6. The Blazers scoring average jumps to 118.2 PPG at home where the Over has gone 16-5-1 the last 22 games. OKC's scoring average doesn't even decline on the road. So an Over seems to be in the cards for Game 1 as this is a much lower total than the last time the teams met. The last three meetings have all delivered at least 231 total points scored. OKC averaged over 120 PPG itself in sweeping the season series (4-0). Play OVER OKC-Portland

AAA

This is a 10* play OVER LA Clippers-Golden State

Golden State wasn't the same dominant team this year as they were in regular seasons past, but they still won 57 games, which speaks volumes. For a fourth consecutive year, they wound up leading the league in offensive efficiency. While they didn't have the highest scoring average (Milwaukee did), the first time that's happened since 2013-14, they did end up with their highest scoring average of the Steve Kerr era at 117.7 points per game. Something else notable was a decline at the defensive end. They gave up 111.2 points per game. (They allowed 107.5 last year). Every season under Kerr, the Warriors have been a top 10 team in defensive efficiency. But this year was their lowest ranking at #10. Of course, they're still better defensively than the Clippers, who were 21st in efficiency. LA gave up 114.3 points per game. Only five teams gave up a worse average and none of them made the playoffs. The Over was 7-2 in the Clippers last nine regular season games. It's also 9-2 the last 11 times they've faced Golden State. Play OVER Los Angeles-Golden State

AAA

This is a 6* play on MINNESOTA

We like the Twins in this spot quite a bit coming off a postponement on Friday. This will be just the second series so far at Target Field and when priced at -125 or higher, the home team is usually a safe bet here. Minny's record the last three seasons in that range is 45-25. They are 13-4 when -175 or higher. Overall, this has been a good home team with a 91-72 record here since the start of the 2017 season. The Twins also have Michael Pineda going. In two starts, he's allowed just two runs and five hits. That's a 2.00 ERA and 0.78 WHIP. Facing a Tigers team that's averaging just 1.7 runs per game on the road so far should be "easy pickings" for Pineda. Detroit is actually 8-5, but we wouldn't advise taking them too seriously at this point as they've faced a lot of "light-hitting" teams and sweeping Kansas City really isn't impressive. We look for the Twins to score plenty against Tyson Ross, who gave up two homers and four walks in his only prior start on the road. Play MINNESOTA

AAA

This is an 8* play OVER Detroit-Minnesota

So, we also like the Over in this game. Even though Twins starter Pineda doesn't figure to have much difficulty mowing down the Tigers lineup, expect the road team to still score a couple runs. But Minny will do the heavy lifting here as they impressively scored 20 runs in their last two games (at a NL park). Detroit's Tyson Ross was dominant in his last start, but that was because he got to face the Royals, who make any pitcher look good. More telling was Ross giving up multiple home runs and four walks to the Yankees in his first start. He lasted just five innings there. The Twins have scored at least five runs in six of the last eight games. The Over is 6-2 in those games. We think they can easily get to 5 here, if not more, and this is a low total. (We probably should have mentioned in the writeup for the side that the Twins are also 14-2 in their last 16 division games). Play OVER Detroit-Minnesota

AAA

This is an 8* play OVER Baltimore-Boston

Expect plenty of fireworks (i.e. scoring) in this game. Baltimore figures to be a welcome sight for a Boston team that has struggled out of the gate. The Red Sox are only 5-9, which is the same record as the Orioles, something most never thought they'd see - even this early in the season. As expected, Boston took care of its business last night, winning 6-4. They are now 17-3 the L2 seasons against the Orioles. This is also the first time all year Boston has won back to back games. As bad as the Orioles look to be on paper, Rick Porcello is not someone we'd want to invest our money in right now. The Red Sox starter for Saturday has a 13.49 ERA and 3.134 WHIP after two starts, both of which have gone Over. Baltimore is going with Andrew Cashner today and he hasn't been much better with a 5.28 ERA and 1.76 WHIP. Yesterday (where they still allowed 6 runs, mind you) snapped a seven-game Over run for the O's. These teams have given up the most and second most runs in all of baseball entering Saturday's games. Play OVER Baltimore-Boston

AAA

This is an 8* play OVER Oakland-Texas

After losing the first game of the series in Baltimore 12-4, the A's steamrolled the Orioles over the next three games, scoring 31 runs in the process. The Over is 5-0 the last five times they've taken the field with them scoring 43 runs by their lonesome. Arlington is generally a place where scoring is not a problem, thus we expect another Over for Oakland tonight. The Rangers are coming off a 2-4 road trip that saw them score 11 runs in the first game (win) but only 13 total in the next five. A return home should do wonders for the Texas offense though as they put up an average of 5.7 runs in their six home games to start the year. Unfortunately, they're also sending out Drew Smyly, whose two starts have not gone well. He's yet to last more than 3 1/3 innings and that's a problem with a bullpen that has a high ERA and WHIP. Oakland's Michael Fiers is off a disastrous showing in Houston where he gave up six runs and couldn't even get out of the second inning. That raised his ERA and WHIP to 5.94 and 1.56 for the year. Play OVER Oakland-Texas

AAA

This is a 10* play OVER Philly-Miami

The Phillies got shellacked in their last two games, giving up 25 runs in pair of losses to the Nationals. But it'll likely be them doing the shellacking here as they head to Miami for a three-game series against the struggling Marlins. In the first week of the season, Philly had no trouble scoring as they put eight or more runs on the board five times in the first six games. But since then, they've scored no more than six in a game and been held to two runs or less in three of their last five. Now that's nothing compared to what happened to Miami in its last series as the Marlins got swept in Cincinnati. They scored ONE run in the three games! We look for both offenses to turn things around tonight, however. The Over is 4-1 the last five times the teams have played against each other. The Marlins are 10-4-1 Over the L15 home games when coming off a road trip of 7 or more days. Starterd Sandy Alcantaras has looked good at times, but had five walks and zero strikeouts in his last start. Philly goes with veteran Jake Arrieta, who is 33 years old and seen his ERA go up each of the last three seasons. He has more walks than strikeouts after two starts. Play OVER Philadelphia-Miami

AAA

This is a 10* Play OVER Columbus/Tampa Bay

Talk about a shocker. Columbus stormed back to win Game 1 in Tampa Bay by a score of 4-3. How the Blue Jackets did it might be the most shocking thing of all. They came back from a 3-0 first period deficit, scoring three goals in the third period, one of them shorthanded. It can't be overstated just how stunning a result and the manner it took place were. The Lightning had a record setting regular season as they finished with 21 more points than every other team, which is the largest gap between one team and the field since the 1995-96 Red Wings. They produced four different win streaks of at least seven games, also matching a record set by Gretzky's Oilers in 1983-84. They had the highest power play percentage in league history (28.1%) and averaged 3.93 goals per game, the most by any team since those 95-96 Red Wings. In four games against the Blue Jackets this season, they've scored 20 goals and those all came in 10 periods of action. Don't want to lay the juice, but the Over is a good call here for Game 2. The Over is now 12-3-1 in Columbus' last 16 tries as a playoff underdog. Play OVER Columbus-Tampa Bay

AAA

This is a 10* play UNDER Carolina-Washington (Game 1)

The Hurricanes are obviously thrilled to be in the Stanley Cup Playoffs for the first time in a decade. They had the league's longest postseason drought, which is quite the ignominious distinction. But the Canes also probably wished they had drawn a different first round opponent. Washington not only won the Metropolitan Division for a 4th straight year, they swept Carolina in the regular season, going 4-0 in head to head meetings. Lest we forget that they are the defending Stanley Cup Champs as well. Carolina will try and push the puck and play fast here (like they always do), but we're not sure that'll work out for them. In those four regular season games against Washington, they were held to an average of 27.5 shots per game, which is well below their season average. The last three times these teams have faced off, the game went Under. Carolina scored just four goals in those three games. Capitals goalie Braden Holtby had a great regular season and posted a .947 save percentage across his last five starts. However, if there's something that can keep Carolina in this game and series, it's extraordinary depth on the blue line as well as the goaltending of Petr Mrazek, who had his own strong finish to the regular season with a .942 save percentage his last four starts. The Hurricanes were 7th in the league in goals allowed, giving up only 2.7 per game. Play UNDER Carolina-Washington

AAA

This is a 10* play OVER Toronto-Boston

Toronto scored 7 runs Tuesday, which may not sound like much, but it was a season-high for them. It also, not shockingly, came against the team which has given up the second most runs in all of baseball, that being Boston. The Red Sox, like the Blue Jays, have had their own offensive woes to start the season. But both teams woes should be cured, at least temporarily, by facing each other. Wednesday was an off-day, but I expect the scoring to resume early and often tonight. You have Aaron Sanchez pitching for the visitors. He has faced two weak offenses so far (Cleveland, Detroit), so tonight will be a test. Sanchez has an ERA north of 4.00 in 19 career starts vs. the Red Sox. Boston will go with Nathan Eovaldi in this spot. While his TSR is 2-0, Eovaldi hasn't really pitched all that well. He's given up 9 runs and 12 hits in 10 innings so far. Going back to the end of last season, the Over is 5-0 his last five starts. Dustin Pedroia is now back to help the Boston offense too. Play OVER Toronto-Boston

AAA

This is an 8* play on OAKLAND

Oakland lost the first game of this series 12-4. That left them with a four-game losing streak and at the time, they were 0-6 on the road (including two losses in Japan to start the year). But the A's have been able to bounce back with a couple easy wins the last two days. We were on them when they crushed Baltimore 13-2 Tuesday. It was more of the same yesterday in a 10-3 triumph. Oakland's lineup has feasted off Baltimore pitching with 38 hits in the three games. They homered five times last night. In the pitching department, the A's turn to Aaron Brooks for Thursday's finale while Baltimore will go with Dylan Bundy. Brooks struggled at Houston in his last start, but had previously worked six scoreless innings against Boston (gave up just two hits). That's at least something as opposed to Bundy, who didn't last long in either of his two starts (both 3 2/3 innings), both of which were against the Yankees. He's allowed six runs in 7 1/3. By the way, the Orioles are 12-25 the past three seasons after giving up 10 or more runs in their last game. Play on OAKLAND

AAA

This is a 10* play on PHILADELPHIA

The Phillies blew a chance to move to 8-2 on the year, losing to the Nationals yesterday by a score of 10-6. The game went to extra innings after Washington tied it up a six runs apiece in the top of the ninth. Then, Juan Soto's three-run homer in the top of the 10th won it. But we should not let one singular result cloud our view of Philly. They have the best win percentage in the National League and are 6-2 at home so far. There is some concern with the way starter Nick Pivetta has pitched against Washington in the past and he's been far from dominant in his two starts this season. But the Nationals entered yesterday with the worst bullpen ERA in the NL and their own starter, Jeremy Hellickson, has question marks as well. Hellickson, a former Phillie, has not yet started in 2019. But he did allow two runs in one relief effort, against his former team, back on April 2nd. Philadelphia had a five-run lead in yesterday's game. While they're 2-2 vs. Washington so far, they easily could be 4-0 as they blew 9th inning leads in both losses. Play on PHILADELPHIA

AAA

This is a 6* play on Tampa Bay (Game 1)

This is obviously the biggest mismatch of the eight first round playoff series and has been priced accordingly. But really, oddsmakers probably can't set the odds high enough. Tampa Bay, coming off a record-setting 62-win regular season, should be considered the overwhelming favorite to lift the Stanley Cup two months from now. The Lightning have set a ridiculous bar, finishing with 21 more points than every other team, which is the largest gap between one team and the field since the 1995-96 Red Wings. They produced four different win streaks of at least seven games, also matching a record set by Gretzky's Oilers in 1983-84. They had the highest power play percentage in league history (28.1%) and averaged 3.93 goals per game, the most by any team since those 95-96 Red Wings. The Lightning also demolished their first round opponent, Columbus, three separate times, beating them 8-2, 4-0 and 5-1. That's a combined 17-3 margin. Game 1 of this best of seven series should not be close nor should this series. Play on TAMPA BAY

AAA

This is an 8* play on Tampa Bay

The Rays were an easy winner for us yesterday, so why not come back with them today? To this point, they have performed to the level of one of the best teams in baseball, particularly on the pitching side of the ledger. Through 12 games, they've allowed just 25 runs, which is easily MLB's best on a per game basis. While they did allow five runs yesterday, it hardly mattered with the offense performing the way it did. With four straight series wins to open the season (club record), they've matched their best overall start in nine years. They also beat Chicago 5-1 on Monday and with Tyler Glasnow (2-0, 0.82 ERA) on the bump today, we see no reason why they won't sweep. Glasnow has allowed just 1 ER in 11 innings so far. As for White Sox starter Reynaldo Lopez, he's allowed 10 runs in his first nine innings pitched this season. Lopez was touched up for three home runs his last time out. An utter and complete mismatch this afternoon. Play on TAMPA BAY

AAA

This is an 8* play on PORTLAND

The Lakers are 2-1 against the Blazers, but that's with LeBron James playing all three games. The King was officially shutdown for the year last week and his teammates packed it long before that. Though they've won two straight, beating the Clippers by five and Jazz by four, the Lakers have been a terrible team to bet on this season. Only the Knicks have a worse ATS mark. Four would-be starters, including James, aren't playing anymore. Without Jusuf Nurkic, the Blazers are a little shorthanded as well, but they just got back C.J. McCollum and will be looking to clinch homecourt advantage for the first round of the playoffs tonight. All they need is a win. While covering the spread might seem like more of a challenge, Portland is 10-2 ATS its last 12 road games against teams that give up 110 or more points per game. They win big tonight. Play on PORTLAND

AAA

This is an 8* play on OAKLAND

We played the Over on this matchup yesterday and that was a very easy win as Baltimore jumped all over Oakland starter Marco Estrada, scoring four times in the first two innings and six times all together before Estrada exited after four. The game had gone Over by the sixth inning, then just for "good measure" the Orioles tacked on five more in the bottom of the eighth to make it a 12-4 win. We expect the A's to rebound Tuesday. While Oakland still has yet to win a game away from home this season (either in Japan or the U.S.), playing Baltimore should change that. The Orioles failed to even win 50 games last season and had lost four in a row before busting loose on Monday. They're a respectable 5-5 so far, but expecting them to continue to play at a .500 level seems foolish. They still should lose 100+ games this season. Oakland is 2-0 with tonight's starter Brett Anderson on the mound as he's allowed only three runs in 11 2/3 innings of work. After going 0 for 8 with runners in scoring position yesterday (did have 11 hits total), expect more "timely" hitting from the Athletics today as they face John Means, who usually comes out of the bullpen. Play on OAKLAND

AAA

This is an 8* play on TAMPA BAY

Tampa Bay easily handled its business Monday afternoon, downing the White Sox by a score of 5-1. We expect a similar result this afternoon. Rays pitching has been downright filthy to this point, allowing just 20 runs in 11 games. That's pretty easily the best in MLB. Since a loss on Opening Day, the team has gone 8-2 with one of the losses coming in extra innings (and it was 1-0 game). Charlie Morton will start today and he's looked good in his first two starts of the year (1.64 ERA). He'll look to continue a streak that has seen Rays pitching not give up a run in 36 of the past 37 innings. They've allowed 2 runs or fewer in 9 of 11 games. As for Chicago, Ervin Santana is a big question mark. He was limited to four starts last year because of injury. He has a 5.31 ERA in 17 career starts vs. Tampa, though he has not faced them since 2016. Ultimately though, this one comes down to the fact the White Sox will again struggle to score runs. They are also just 47-78 in day games the past three seasons. Play on TAMPA BAY

AAA

This is a 10* play on VIRGINIA

We are guaranteed to have a first time national champion on Monday when Texas Tech takes on Virginia. Texas Tech beat Michigan State 61-51 in one national semifinal while Virginia outlasted Auburn 63-62 in the other. It should be pointed out that Virginia led their game by as much as 10 points before watching that lead go away and then needing the refs to bail them out in the end. We think that due to the nature of the win against Auburn, Virginia isn't getting the proper credit here. Our own line was between 4.5 and 5 points, so there's value on the favorite. The Cavaliers spent much of the year ranked #1 in the country and when they weren't, they were close to the top. Texas Tech has saved its best basketball for the right time, but Virginia will be the toughest opponent they've faced all year. Virginia may not have covered Saturday, but they are 16-5 ATS the 21 times they have been coming off an ATS loss. Texas Tech is just 1-6 ATS vs. the ACC. This will be an ugly game, but Virginia will be the winner. Play on VIRGINIA

AAA

This is a 10* play on OVER Oakland-Baltimore

Both clubs are limping into this series. Oakland just got swept in Houston while Baltimore suffered the same fate over the weekend, at home against the Yankees. The Orioles have lost four straight overall as you have to remember they're likely to be one of the worst teams in all of baseball. The A's have yet to win a game away from home. So something will have to give tonight in Camden Yards. Whomever wins, expect plenty of runs to be scored in this one. In the three games vs. the Yankees, Baltimore pitching conceded 29 runs with their bullpen posting a 14.22 ERA and 2.53 WHIP. Tonight's starter Andrew Cashner has a 5.40 ERA and 1.70 WHIP after two outings. Oakland goes with Marco Estrada, who looked great in his first outing, but not so much the second. Estrada is far from overpowering. In road games, the A's are allowing an average of 6.4 runs. Play OVER Oakland-Baltimore

AAA

This is a 10* on PORTLAND

This line has already risen quite dramatically, but we're still anticipating a big Portland win. This is the second leg of a home and home between the Blazers and Nuggets. Denver won at home, 119-110, on Friday as Portland was short-handed. They played without Jusuf Nurkic, C.J. McCollum and Seth Curry. Damian Lillard was held to 14 points on 3 of 14 shooting. Even without the some of those key players still, the Blazers should bounce back at home. Denver could rest some of its starters, which is why the line is on the move. Portland is also 30-9 at home this season and hoping to avoid what would be a season sweep by the Nuggets. The first three games have all been decided by single digits with two of them by a total of 4 points. So it's not as if Portland hasn't been competitive. They need a strong finish to the regular season to clinch home court advantage for the opening round of the playoffs. Play on PORTLAND

AAA

This is an 8* play on LA DODGERS

The Dodgers are gunning for a sweep and their fifth win in a row overall Sunday night as they wrap up their series with division rival Colorado. The Rockies started out 2-0, but have subsequently dropped six of seven with the lone victory coming by a score of 1-0 in Tampa Bay and even that took extra innings. So it's not a good time to be playing them right now. With them having to face Julio Urias, it would appear to be a great time to fade. Urias tossed five shutout innings last Monday vs. San Francisco, but the bullpen unfortunately couldn't finish the job. That 4-2 setback was the last time the Dodgers lost however. Something else to keep in mind is that Urias was excellent in the Spring. He was 2-0 in Catcus League play, posting a 1.72 ERA and 0.51 WHIP. He gave up just three runs in 15 2/3 innings and had 15 strikeouts. The Rockies go with Chad Bettis in this spot and he was hit hard in his first start of the regular season, giving up six runs. Bettis has struggled in the past vs. the Dodgers (4.85 ERA) as has his entire team. LA is 37-23 vs. Colorado since the start of the 2016 season, winning 16 of the last 23 matchups. They've scored seven or more runs a quarter of the time in those L60 games while winning by four or more runs 14 times. They won 10-6 on Friday and 7-2 on Saturday. Play LA DODGERS

AAA

This is a 10* play on LA ANGELS

After losing Thursday's series opener, the Angels will look to make it three in a row Sunday afternoon at the Rangers expense. Each of the last two days have seen them hold Texas to a single run. That was after Thursday starter Matt Harvey got crushed and they gave up 11 runs. That loss left LA an AL-worst 1-6, which also matched the worst ever start to a season for the franchise. But they've now seemingly got back on track and it's Texas scrambling. Mike Trout has homered in three straight games for the Angels, who should continue to find success here against Texas pitching. The Rangers are electing to go with Shelby Miller, who permitted 10 baserunners in his first star, which lasted all of 3 2/3 innings. That was five walks and five hits. The Rangers still won, 6-4, beating the Astros as a big underdog. But that won't happen again here. The Angels will hope for something better than what they got the first time from Chris Stratton and should get it against a team that has done next to nothing offensively the last two days. Play on LOS ANGELES

AAA

This is an 8* play UNDER Miami-Atlanta

Playing the Over with these teams did not work out yesterday. Miami was able to snap Atlanta's four-game win streak, prevailing by a final score of 4-2. All of the Marlins came from the long ball as they hit three total, two from Jorge Alfaro including the game winner in the top of the ninth. Reliance on the long ball doesn't seem like a sustainable way to score runs to me though and today Miami will face a pitcher that doesn't give up many. Braves starter Sean Newcomb has not allowed a HR in seven of his last nine starts going back to last year. He also had Miami's number in 2018, going 4-0 against them with a 0.75 ERA in four starts. That's a great sign as is the fact Newcomb didn't allow any runs in four innings in his first start of this season. He may be pitching to keep his spot in the rotation today, so expect a strong outing. Atlanta has not allowed more than four runs in any of its last five games. Miami is going with its own southpaw here in Caleb Smith, who had eight strikeouts in five innings his first start. He allowed just two runs and four hits. We made a mistake taking the Over yesterday, but are fully on board with the Under today. Play UNDER Miami-Atlanta

AAA

This is a 7* play on EDMONTON

An underdog play here as Edmonton will look to end another disappointing season on a high note. The Oilers have two 100-point scorers, Conor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, but little else to boast about from 2018-19. They are set to finish well below expectations set and this comes on the heels of last year's substantial decline in points when they went from 103 points (2016-17) to 78. But the "Battle of Alberta" vs. rival Calgary should have them plenty motivated. The Flames have won the Pacific Division and will be the top seed in the Western Conference for the first time in 30 years. So they're thinking more about the playoffs and not this game. They've been resting key players recently. So this edition of the rivalry will mean far more to the Oilers. Play on EDMONTON

AAA

This is an 8* play on TEXAS TECH

Playing both Michigan State games last weekend worked out well for us as we hit the Under in both. After having little difficulty in defeating Minnesota and LSU, Duke was obviously going to present Sparty with a much greater challenge and sure enough that was a one-point win (68-67) where MSU only shot 42.9% from the field. That was the 1st time they had been matched up against a team on par with them defensively and it resulted in a Tournament-low for points scored. When it comes to defense, no team has a better efficiency rating than Texas Tech, who just held the #1 offensive team in the country (Gonzaga) to 69 points on 42.4% shooting. Before that, the Red Raiders held Michigan to 44 points (32.7 FG%), Buffalo to 58 points (36.5 FG%) and Northern Kentucky to 57 points (37.1 FG%). So tonight should be another new low in points for Michigan State in the Tourney. Texas Tech is a perfect 4-0 ATS in this Tournament, winning the last two games as underdogs, so they're used to being in this position. Before upsetting Gonzaga in the Elite Eight, they'd won by 15 or more in each Tourney game with the showings against both Buffalo and Michigan being especially exemplary. Both teams have been great against the spread of late. But Texas Tech is the call here thanks to that defense. Play on TEXAS TECH

AAA

This is a 10* play OVER Miami-Atlanta

Atlanta shut Miami out last night, 4-0. It was the Braves fourth straight win and the Marlins fourth straight loss. It was the second straight series opener where the Braves shut their opponent. They beat the Cubs 8-0 on Monday and would go on to score 23 runs in that series. They are now a perfect 4-0 at home following last night's victory. Going back to last year, they've won nine in a row at SunTrust Park and they've also beaten the Marlins nine straight time at home as well. While this looks to be another easy win, and we do expect the Braves to score plenty of runs, look for Miami to cross the plate a good number of times as well. Kyle Wright is making just his second career start today for Atlanta. His first saw him walk five batters in 4 1/3 innings and allow three runs. Some of that was cold weather, but Wright has also yet to prove himself. Atlanta's bullpen hasn't been very good either. Miami's Sandy Alcantara was dominant his first time out, but that was at home. The Over is 8-0 the last eight times the Marlins have faced a team with a winning record on the road. Play OVER Miami-Atlanta

AAA

This is a 10* play on VIRGINIA

It's certainly going to be a contrast of styles in this first Final Four matchup with the high-flying Auburn attack going against the methodical pace Virginia likes to set. Ultimately, something has to give and we believe defense will win out in the end. That means Virginia, who has been one of the top teams in College Basketball all season, as opposed to an Auburn team that saved its best basketball for the Tournament. The Tigers have already downed Kansas, North Carolina and Kentucky thanks to an incredible display of three-point shooting. But they have not yet had to go against a team that guards the three-point line as well as Virginia does (28.7 3-pt % allowed). Remember Auburn lost one of its top scorers - Chuma Okeke - in the Sweet 16. Without him, they were still able to defeat Kentucky, but that's an opponent they are very familiar with. Virginia is a different story. Lost in the shuffle here is the fact the Cavaliers have a higher offensive efficiency rating than Auburn. They also only turn it over nine times per game and do a good job of getting to the free throw line. When they get to the FT line, they convert at a 74% clip. Virginia also actually shoots a better percentage from three-point range (for the season) compared to Auburn. The lone 1-seed still standing gets the job done Saturday night. Play on VIRGINIA

AAA

This is a 10* play on HOUSTON

Houston has some nice advantages coming into tonight's home opener, one being they are simply a more talented team than the A's. Now the respective won-loss records might say otherwise, but we know it's still (very) early in the season. Houston had yesterday off while Oakland was hosting Boston. The A's won 7-3, their sixth win in eight games after starting the year with a couple losses over in Japan. But they haven't been on the road since playing in Japan and tonight will be a big test. They send Frankie Montas to the bump and he has a 7.74 ERA in four career appearances vs. the Astros. Houston goes with Collin McHugh, who is 8-1 with a 2.74 ERA in 17 career appearances vs. the A's. Houston is priced low for being at home and that's probably due to a disappointing 2-5 start. But they'll get back on track in short order, starting with a win Friday night. Play on HOUSTON 

AAA

This is a 10* play on MIAMI

It's unusual to say, but Miami is probably glad that this very crucial game is taking place on the road. After dropping a decision at home to Boston two nights ago, the Heat's home record fell to 18-22 straight up and 15-23-2 against the spread. On the road, they are 20-18 SU and 23-15 ATS. You don't see a team with a better record on the road than at home very often, but this is definitely an instance of that. The Heat come into this game a 1/2 game back of both Brooklyn and Orlando. They need to pass at least one of those two teams to get into the playoffs. Minnesota should provide them such an opportunity. The Timberwolves already know when their season will end and that's a week from now in Denver, the final game of the regular season. For the 13th time in 14 years, they aren't going to the playoffs. They did win Wednesday night at Dallas, but have put together back to back wins just one time since the All Star Break. That came in a pair of home games against Washington and New York, two very bad teams. Miami has to have this one and they'll get it. Play on MIAMI

AAA

This is an 8* play on NY RANGERS +1.5

A season that was supposed to be bad, and was, will conclude for the Rangers tomorrow night. They have two games to get through before the offseason and up first is the home finale against Columbus. For the Blue Jackets, tonight's game has tremendous meaning. With two games left, they are tied with Montreal for the final spot left in the playoffs. Because they have more ROW (regulation + OT wins) than the Habs, Columbus owns the tiebreak. So a win tonight puts them in the playoffs. Because of that the money line is inflated. Because of the inflated money line, a chance to play the Rangers at +1.5 opens up. As rough of a season as it's been in NY, the Rangers have suffered 13 losses in extra time. A tie at the end of regulation is all that we need here. A quarter of their games have gone to OT this year. Additionally, they've suffered 10 one-goal losses in regulation. Play on NY RANGERS

AAA

This is an 8* play on SAN ANTONIO

San Antonio is in 8th place in the Western Conference, which would mean a first round series against Golden State. No team wants to be the first to draw the Warriors, so expect the Spurs to do everything they can to move up. That starts with winning this game in Washington against a Wizards team that is just playing out the string. It is likely the Wizards will finish this season with their lowest win total since 2012-13. They just lost here at home to Chicago after blowing an eight-point fourth quarter lead. That's demoralizing. As for San Antonio's motivation, they will have plenty. Greg Popovich was tossed 63 seconds into an eventual 113-85 loss to the Nuggets on Wednesday. Expect him and his team to respond like you might think. The Spurs shoot a league-best 39.2% from three-point range, so they should bury a Wizards team that is among the very worst in the league defensively. Play on SAN ANTONIO

AAA 

This is an 8* play on the LA ANGELS

The Angels finally get to play some games at home, starting Thursday, as they welcome in the Rangers for a four-game set. Things have not gone well for LA so far as they are 1-5, matching the franchise's worst ever start, set back in the expansion season of 1961. But Texas would seem to be the elixir that they're looking for right now. Not only have the Angels gone 13-6 head to head against the Rangers the last two years, they've beaten them five straight times, all here in Anaheim. The Rangers starter for tonight is Edinson Volquez and he pitched poorly in his first start of the year. He gave up four runs in four innings and had four walks. The Rangers did end up winning, but no thanks to Volquez. Matt Harvey toes the rubber here for Los Angeles and looked pretty good his first time out. He did allow one home run, but only two runs total in six innings and that happens to be the only game his team has won so far. Texas has yet to play a road game this year. Volquez has been bad in his career against the Angels as his ERA is 10.71 in six games. Play on LA ANGELS

AAA

This is a 10* play OVER Cleveland-Sacramento

Cleveland has been exceptionally porous on the defensive end of late. The Over is 5-0 their last five games and it doesn't take much digging to understand why that is. They are giving up 122.6 points per game on 55.1% shooting. The last six opponents have all shot better than 50%. The Clippers shot 62.4% against them Saturday, then they gave up 122 points to Phoenix, who shot 54.8%. This is really nothing new. The Cavs have the worst defensive efficiency in the league. Sacramento actually gives up more points per game than Cleveland, so a high scoring game certainly looks to be in the cards here. The Kings, who are trying to finish with a .500 record for the first time in 13 seasons, were shredded for 130 points by Houston two nights ago. The good news is they scored 129 in the first meeting with Cleveland and shot north of 57% from the field. We imagine something similar tonight. The Cavaliers have gone Over their last seven times following a loss. Play OVER Cleveland-Sacramento

AAA

This is an 8* play on SAN JOSE

The Sharks are going to the playoffs, but it's certainly a case of "limping in" as they've dropped 9 of 10 (1-8-1) and you'd have to go all the way back to March 12th to find the last time they won a game in regulation. At that time, everything was looking great. They were on a six-game win streak, their second six game win streak since the All Star Break. But things have definitely hit the skids recently and a win over a non-playoff team like Edmonton would definitely go a "long way" here. The Oilers are having another disappointing season. Despite two 100+ point scorers, they have just 77 points and they too have played poorly of late. It's four straight losses coming into tonight and they've gotten outscored 17-6. This is the final home game of the season in Edmonton, but they may be more interested in Saturday's game at rival Calgary. Or maybe the Oilers have simply "packed it in" and will roll over for the Sharks. Either way, expect this to be a pretty easy two points for the road team, who is 3-0 vs. Edmonton since Christmas scoring 5, 7 and 7 goals in the three wins. Play on SAN JOSE

AAA

This is a 10* play on COLORADO

One playoff spot is still up for grabs in the NHL's Western Conference. It is very likely that Colorado will grab it. All they need to do is win one of their final two games. Clinching at home would probably be pretty sweet for a team that has not made the playoffs in back to back seasons for 13 years. The Avalanche are playing well right now with wins in seven of their last nine contests. Both losses came in extra time while all but one win was in regulation. Winnipeg has been trending in a different direction with five losses in the past seven games, all of them coming in regulation. The Jets now could finish as low as third in the Central Division depending on how Nashville and St. Louis each finish. Denver seems to be an unlikely destination for a turnaround considering five of the last six times they've come here, Winnipeg has lost. They lost by a score of 7-1 here in February and are off 5-1 loss to Minnesota Tuesday. Colorado won its last game 6-2 and is simply in better form right now. Play on COLORADO

AAA

This is a 10* play OVER Calgary-Anaheim

The teams just met Friday with Calgary winning 6-1. While the rematch is Anaheim and the Flames have nothing to really play for, we see it being every bit as high scoring as the last time they played. Calgary may not be quite as high scoring on the road, but they still average a healthy 3.05 goals/game. And while Anaheim is the lowest scoring team in the league, they do score more at home. Each of the Ducks last five games have gone Over. They've scored a total of 18 goals in those five games while also allowing 18. That's 3.5 goals scored and allowed per game. Calgary's last three games have all gone Over. They have scored 18 goals in those three games, an average of six per game. Chalk up another high scoring game tonight. Play OVER Calgary-Anaheim 

AAA

This is an 8* play OVER Cubs-Braves

I played the Under on the first game of this series (Monday), which won or pushed depending on whether or not you got 8 or 8.5. But tonight, I'm looking Over with the Cubs and Braves. The teams had off yesterday. Monday was an 8-0 Braves win, their first of the season. The Cubs have given up 8, 11 and 8 runs their last three games, all of which have been losses. Jon Lester starts tonight and while he pitched well on Opening Day, this will be his first time facing the Braves since their renaissance of last season. The Over is 6-0 the last six times Lester has started on five or more days rest. In addition to having given up 27 runs in the last 24 1/3 innings, the Cubs committed six errors on Monday, their first time doing so in a 9-inning game since 1982. Fortunately the offense had scored 28 runs in the first three games before getting stymied Monday. We expect Chicago to bounce back at the plate tonight against Julio Teheran, who allowed three runs in five innings his first start of the year. Play OVER Chicago-Atlanta

AAA

This is a 10* play on ORLANDO

The four-team race for the last three spots in the Eastern Conference Playoffs (will be one team left out) is really heating up. Orlando has one fewer game remaining than Detroit, Brooklyn and Miami, which is a problem considering they are the ones currently on the "outside looking in." All four teams lost on Monday after all four had won on Saturday. So that means no ground was made up by the Magic and they still trail the Heat by a half game with only four left to play. But they have a golden opportunity to make up some ground Wednesday when they host the league-worst Knicks. (The three teams Orlando is chasing also play at home tonight, but against top five teams from the East). We look for Orlando to win big here. New York is off a rare win on Monday, which will make them prone to a letdown. There's no point for the Knicks to keep winning at this point and risk harming their draft position. This is obviously a lot of points to lay with a Magic team that's not normally this large of a favorite. But not only have they won seven straight home games, four of the last five wins have been by double digits and the last one was by 21 over Philadelphia. The Magic also have revenge for a five-point loss at the Garden back in February. Play on ORLANDO

AAA

This is an 8* play UNDER Mets-Miami

With Jacob deGrom pitching, you have to figure Miami is going to struggle to score runs today. Not like they have an impressive offense to begin with. In four of six games so far, they've been held to three runs or less. deGrom should have no problems doing the same. Yes, he actually did go 0-2 vs. the Marlins last season. But 2018 also saw deGrom post the lowest single season ERA (1.70) since the mound was lowered in 1968. His first start of '19 was right in line with where he left off last season. He held Washington scoreless for six frames while striking out 10 batters. Not to be overlooked here is the performance Miami starter Trevor Richards had in his first start of the year. He allowed just one run (on four hits) in six innings of work. The fact the Marlins lost that game 6-1 (to Colorado) was obviously the fault of the bullpen. Richards also shutout the Mets for 6 2/3 innings in his final start last season. This is a game where few runs will be scored. The Mets aren't going to keep averaging more than six runs per game. Play UNDER Mets-Marlins

AAA

This is an 8* play UNDER Baltimore-Toronto

Someone break up the Orioles! Last year's worst team has started 4-1 out of the gate with all of those wins coming on the division road and two were as huge underdogs in New York. The last two days have seen the O's record one-run victories in Toronto, 6-5 and then 2-1. Similar to yesterday, we think we're in store for another low-scoring affair Wednesday afternoon. You have to like the way Blue Jays starter Matt Shoemaker pitched last Friday when he threw seven shutout innings of two-hit ball. Really, with the exception of Monday, the entire Blue Jays starting staff has been pretty remarkable. Take away Monday and they were working on a 29-inning scoreless streak until Marcus Stroman gave up a pair of runs in the 6th of yesterday's game. Of course Monday saw an Orioles starter (David Hess) pulled while in the midst of a no-hitter. Nate Karns will "open" today's game for Baltimore as the first of several relievers to get on the mound. All six of Toronto's runs scored in this series have come in the final three innings. For the year, they are batting .018 (1 for 55) in the first three innings. Karns threw two shutout innings the first time he opened this year, against the Yankees. Play UNDER Orioles-Blue Jays

AAA

This is an 8* play on DENVER

Since making an early season statement at Golden State's expense, Denver has not fared well in two subsequent meetings. They lost at home 142-111 in January and then 122-105 out in Oakland last month. The Nuggets 1-2 YTD record against the Warriors is the difference in the standings right now as GSW comes in one game ahead in the race for the #1 seed. Denver suffered a pretty embarrassing home loss to Washington in its last game as they were held to only 90 points total and 28 in the second half. Whether or not that was looking ahead to this game we don't know, but look for a much better performance tonight. Will Denver win? Not sure. But they can definitely stay well within this generous number set by the oddsmakers. Golden State has a poor ATS record overall this season (32-43-1) and especially at home (14-23-1). We're not sure what it is about Tuesday, but the Warriors are 3-19 ATS at home on Tuesday nights the past three seasons. They've lost four of their last eight home games outright. Take the points tonight. Play on DENVER 

AAA

This is a 10* play OVER Arizona-San Diego

The Padres are a team we've found success with in the early part of the season, playing them twice and winning both times. But both wins were at the Giants' expense and as they found out (the hard way) last night, Arizona is a much different animal. The Diamondbacks pummeled the Padres yesterday here at Petco, winning 10-3, with much of the damage done against San Diego starter Strahm. Starting pitching had been a strength for the Padres so far this season with today's starter Lauer getting the season off to a strong start with six scoreless innings on Opening Day. Again, facing Arizona is going to be a lot tougher than San Francisco was. In his rookie season (last year), Lauer was hit hard in two games against the Diamondbacks with the Arizona lineup recording a .311 batting average and Lauer ending up with a 1.50 WHIP. It sounds weird to say this, but the Diamondbacks may have to worry about Zack Greinke tonight consider how bad he looked in his first start. Greinke gave up seven runs and four homers against the Dodgers Opening Day. San Diego's offense is much more formidable now than in past years. Play OVER Arizona-San Diego

AAA

This is an 8* play on the ANGELS

Seattle is already 6-1 thanks to starting the year in Japan where they picked up a couple wins at Oakland's expense. But they've also played pretty well here in the U.S.A. where they are 4-1 including a 6-3 win last night over the Angels. But this run is going to come to a screeching halt sooner than later. The Mariners intend to rebuild and figure to lose at least 85 games this season. Look for a loss tonight as we can't see Marco Gonzales continuing to succeed with his current numbers (4.77 ERA, 1.59 WHIP). He's 2-0, but that's thanks to the Mariners offense scoring 21 runs in those two games. The Angels might be off to a slow start, but an offense that has been held to three runs or less four times already should break out agianst Gonzales, who they saw six different times last season. Mike Trout is 8 for 17 lifetime against Gonzales. Trevor Cahill will start for LA and should pitch better than he did in Oakland on Opening Day. The last time Cahill faced the M's, he was with the A's and allowed just two runs on four hits. He has a 3.40 ERA against Seattle in 14 career starts. Play on LOS ANGELES

AAA

This is an 8* play on COLUMBUS

Tonight is the Blue Jackets final home game of the regular season, but the faithful in Columbus are certainly hoping its not the final home game of the year. Right now, the Blue Jackets sit in the top Wild Card spot with 94 points, but have two teams (Carolina, Montreal) within two points and only two of those three can make it to the playoffs. Columbus is certainly doing its best to ensure there will be more games played here in Ohio's state capital as they've won five in a row with three of those wins coming in shutout fashion. Goalie Sergei Bobrovsky has a .957 save percentage his last 11 starts and a 38-save shutout of Buffalo on Sunday was his league-leading ninth of the season. With the final two games of the year at Ottawa and New York (Rangers), we see Columbus as having an excellent shot at making the playoffs. But they want that top Wild Card spot as it will allow them to avoid facing the juggernaut known as Tampa Bay in Round 1. Boston doesn't really have anything left to play for except formally clinching home ice advantage for their Round 1 series against Toronto. But that's pretty much a formality at this point anyway. The Bruins have allowed 10 goals in their last two games, which is two more than Columbus has allowed in its last six games. Play on COLUMBUS

AAA

This is an 8* play on CINCINNATI

The Reds came into this season with plenty of promise, which was part of the reason I took them on Opening Day. They won that first game, 5-3 over Pittsburgh, but haven't won since. That's misleading though as they've only played two games due to an off-day and a rainout. Last night saw them drop a 4-3 decision to the Brewers with Christian Yelich delivering a game winning double in the top of the ninth. Milwaukee is now 4-1, though every win has been close (three by 1 run), led by Yelich homering in every game but yesterday. I think the Brewers luck is about to run out here as it's difficult to keep winning in the manner than they have. The Reds are a better team this season and will not be the pushover they were a year ago. Brewers starter Chacin has a losing record against Cincy in his career (2-3 in 10 starts) and last year's two starts against them saw him allow five runs in only 9 1/3 innings. Chacin's first start of 2019 saw him give up multiple home runs and walks. Anthony DeSclafani will oppose him today and we feel he's the better starter in this matchup. This will be his first start of the year. Look for the Reds offense to "pick up" in this game as well. Play on CINCINNATI

AAA

This is a 10* play OVER Chicago-New York

Not much defense should be expected in this game as the Bulls and Knicks have just two weeks left in what has been a miserable (as expected) season for both. The key will be whether or not they can make some shots. The Knicks are 0-6 straight up and against the spread their last six games and a big reason for that is they've failed to top 100 points four times. But the other two games saw them score 116 and 113 points and we should see something in line with those numbers here. The Bulls have been held to 103 points or fewer in four straight games. All were losses. But the big key here is all of the games in both teams losing streaks have come against playoff teams. Each will find far less resistance at the defensive end tonight. The Over is 4-1-1 in Chicago's last six games vs. sub-.400 teams. Play OVER Chicago-New York

AAA

This is an 8* play on UNDER Cubs-Braves

Between these two, the Over is off to a 5-1 start to the season. The lone Under in came in last night's 5-1 loss by the Braves in Philadelphia. Once again on ESPN, we should see Atlanta involved in a low scoring game. The Cubs were unable to overcome a disastrous start from Yu Darvish Sunday and lost 11-10 in Texas. Despite scoring 28 runs in the three games in Arlington, the Cubs still lost the series. But now they return to National League play, which still involves the pitchers coming up to bat and scoring should subside accordingly. This works both ways as not only should the Cubs see their own scoring decline here in Atlanta, the pitching should improve. Kyle Hendricks was very good in 2018 and finished with a 1.52 ERA and 0.85 WHIP his last seven starts. The Under was 22-10-1 in all of his starts last year. Four career appearances against Atlanta have yielded a 2.33 ERA. Sean Newcomb will be on the mound for the Braves, looking to lead his team to its first win of the young season. The bullpen was more of a problem for Atlanta in Philly than were the starters, so a strong outing from Newcomb would go a long way here. Newcomb was stronger in the first half last year, including a quality effort against these Cubs. The Under is 6-2-1 the last nine times Newcomb has started a series opener. Play UNDER Chicago-Atlanta

AAA

This is a 10* play UNDER on NY Mets-Miami

The Mets had a chance to sweep the Nationals yesterday, which would have been quite the statement to open the season. But a late rally ultimately fell short as they lost in walkoff fashion. Still, you have to like what you've seen from this club so far. Miami is going to struggle massively this season in a NL East where the other four teams are all thinking playoffs. That said, winning the last two games while holding the Rockies to just three runs is impressive. We look for this game to be low-scoring.  These division foes ended last season with a three-game series against one another and the Mets scored a total of three runs. They also shut Miami out in two of the three games. One of those games was started by Steven Matz, who tossed six innings of three-hit ball. Matz posted a 1.53 ERA in three starts vs. Miami last season. Really, the only problem he had in a strong 2018 (3.97 ERA) was lack of run support. That's how he ended up with no wins in his final seven starts despite a 2.29 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. The Mets scored three runs or less 13 times for Matz last season. It's early, but the Marlins are batting just .216 so far. But starter Caleb Smith should keep them in this one as he had a 3.09 ERA in a couple of starts vs. NY last year. Play UNDER NY Mets-Miami

AAA

This is a 6* play on BOSTON

Despite them already being safely in the playoffs, don't expect Boston to take last night's 4-1 loss to Florida "lying down." This is because, among other reasons, the Bruins would also like to lock down home ice advantage for their upcoming 1st round series with Toronto. (They did catch a major break last night with Toronto losing at Ottawa). Yesterday's loss was a rarity as it snapped the B's 12-game win streak at home and was the first time all season they lost an afternoon game on regulation (7-0-1 previously). But they are still 20-5-4 their last 29 games overall. The next three are all on the road and though Detroit has won four in a row overall and two straight over the Bruins, this one shapes up to be the easiest. One positive for the road team is they are 8-1 this season following a game where they were held to 1 goal or less. The Red Wings last game was a 4-0 win over New Jersey, just their 2nd shutout of the season. The previous won came back on February 2nd against another bad team (Ottawa) and the Wings promptly followed that up by losing their next game (at home). History repeats itself here. Play on BOSTON

AAA

This is a 10* play UNDER Michigan State-Duke

These two national powers approach their Elite 8 matchup with serious injury concerns. For Duke, Cam Reddish was a late scratch Friday night vs. Va Tech. For a second straight game, the Blue Devils had to hold on as a last second shot by their opponent (that would have been a game-winner) rolled off the rim. Michigan State lost Nick Ward to a hand injury late in their Sweet 16 victory over LSU. But he said he will play here. While the Spartans scored 80 against LSU, they actually shot better the game before against Minnesota. We don't look for them to shoot that well or score as many in this game. Duke, like Michigan State, is a top 10 team in defensive efficiency. Both teams are holding their opponents to a field goal percentage below 40.0 for the season. The Blue Devils are not a great three-point shooting team, but have been better than usual the last two games. Don't look for that trend to continue, however. For the year, they are at just 27.1% from behind the arc away from Cameron. Take Tre Jones going 5 for 7 out of the equation and the rest of the Blue Devils shot just 1 of 13 on three-pointers against Va Tech. The team shot 55% overall, but that won't be repeated here. Good news for Duke is they hold their opponents to under 30% from three-point range. Low-scoring game between the top two seeds in the East Region. Play UNDER Michigan State-Duke

AAA

This is a 10* play on SAN DIEGO

The Padres lost 3-2 yesterday to the Giants. All five of the game's runs were scored in the sixth inning. But before that San Francisco had scored just one run in 23 innings and they didn't score again the rest of the game. So it would seen unrealistic for them to do much at the plate as this four-game series wraps up Sunday at Petco Park. The San Diego starting rotation is young, but loaded with talent and we've seen them keep the San Fran lineup in total check so far. Today it's Chris Paddack's turn as the 23-year old makes his first major league start. Paddack is one of the top prospects in the Padres organization and had himself an impressive Spring. His strikeout to walk rate is exactly what you want to see from a young starter. On the other hand, the Giants are going with an over the hill starter in Jeff Samardzija, who had a terrible 2018. Samardzija went 1-5 in 10 starts last season with a career worst 6.50 ERA. Bothered by shoulder issues, we're not sure how much he has left in the tank and the team is just 2-12 his last 14 starts overall. The Padres should bounce back from their first loss of the season rather easily here. Play on SAN DIEGO

AAA

This is an 8* play on UNDER Auburn-Kentucky

Well, there will be one SEC team in the Final Four. We just don't know if it'll be Auburn or Kentucky. This all-SEC Elite 8 matchup pits the 5th seeded Tigers against the 2nd seeded Wildcats and is the third time they'll have met this season. Kentucky won the first two, 82-80 on the road and 80-53 on the road. Obviously, the major difference between the two games was how much worse Auburn was on offense in Lexington. This game is being played at a neutral site and considering how strong the Tigers have looked offensively in this Tournament, you'd think that this rubber match is inclined to more closely resemble the first regular season meeting. But Kentucky is playing lock down defense. As a result 9 of its last 11 games have stayed Under. And Auburn's offense has suffered a major blow with third leading scorer Chuma Okeke out with a knee injury. Okeke was leading the team with 20 points against North Carolina when the injury was suffered. As for the UK offense, they don't make that many threes and have scored only 62 points each of the last two games. The Under is 13-3 in the Wildcats last 16 NCAA Tournament games plus 12-3 the last 15 times they've taken on Auburn. Play UNDER Auburn-Kentucky

AAA

This is a 10* play on VIRGINIA

Virginia is our top side of the entire tournament. This is a team that continues to get less respect than it deserves. It's easy to understand why. Last year saw them suffer the indignity of being the first #1 seed to ever lose to a #16 seed. But that embarrassment aside, the Cavaliers have arguably been the best team in College Basketball the last two years. This tournament has seen them play the same kind of defense we saw in the regular season. The regular season saw UVA hold its opponents to the fewest number of points per game in the country. They allow just 54.8 PPG for the year and just held both Oklahoma and Oregon under that number. Purdue is 3-0 ATS in the tournament and made a record 40 three-pointers through three games. Expect that hot shooting to come to an end Saturday. The Boilermakers shooting in the last two games in particular (Villanova, Tennessee) was quite other-worldly. But Virginia isn't just a step up in class in terms of the kind of defense they'll face, it's a massive step up from both Villanova and Tennessee. The fact Purdue won their last game by 5 and Virginia by only 4 is a little misleading. The Boilers did lead by as much as 18 points, but also needed OT to get Tennessee. Virginia led Oregon virtually wire to wire and didn't allow a field goal over the final 5:43. Purdue is 0-5-1 ATS after allowing 90 or more points the last game. Virginia is 39-19-1 ATS following a straight up win. Play on VIRGINIA 

AAA

This is a 10* play on DETROIT

Portland made us look a little foolish last night by beating Atlanta by 20 points. We totally overestimated the Hawks in that situation, which with the benefit of hindsight seems like a bad idea all around. But after beating Chicago and Atlanta, the Blazers now step up to face Detroit. Unlike those last two Portland opponents, the Pistons are trying to make the playoffs. They're 6th in the East, but the margin for error is still slim. Portland finds itself playing its third road game in four days, without Jusuf Nurkic. Again, Nurkic's absence turned out not to be a big deal against the Bulls and Hawks. But Detroit will make Portland pay. The Pistons have covered five straight and just beat Orlando by 17 in an impressive win two nights ago. The Blazers are 1-6 SU/ATS in the second of back to back road games this year. Not only does Portland not have Nurkic the rest of the season, C.J. McCollum is out of the lineup as well. This team is severely shorthanded, not rested and on the road. That's a lousy combination when facing a better than average opponent. Detroit is 24-13 in home games where they see a dramatic increase on the offensive end.  Play on DETROIT

AAA

This is a 10* play OVER Braves-Phillies

With the addition of Bryce Harper making expectations sky high, the Phillies figure to be a pretty "public" team in 2019. Even with Harper hitless, they still managed to crush the Braves Opening Day, winning 10-4. Him being intentionally walked did set up the pivotal at-bat of the game, that being a Rhys Hoskins' grand slam. Atlanta's starting rotation is in shambles to start the season with both Mike Foltynewicz and Kevin Gausman on the DL. This forces rookie Bryse Wilson into the starter's role for today and we look for him to struggle with the Phillies lineup, just as predecessor Julio Teheran did. At the big league level, Wilson has made just one start and two relief appearances. Make no mistake about it, he's only in this spot due to injuries. Philadelphia hit three home runs Thursday. Their offense figures to score plenty again here, but don't be surprised to see them give up some runs here too. Starter Pivetta had a pretty high ERA (4.80) last year and the Over is 6-1 the last seven times he's started the second game of a series. The Phillies had the worst defense in the league last year and that could account for some extra runs scored here too. Play OVER Atlanta-Philadelphia

AAA

This is an 8* play on KC

We don't expect much from either of these teams in 2019, but someone has to win these games and in the case of Opening Day, it was the Royals getting the job done. They beat the White Sox 5-3, thanks to starter Brad Keller giving them seven shutout innings of two-hit ball. Chicago scored all three of its runs in the ninth inning and had nearly as many errors (3) as they did hits (4) in the game. Kansas City is a team built on speed, both on the basepaths and defensively. They aren't going to be good this year, but if they get the kind of starting pitching Keller gave them Thursday, then they can certainly beat an opponent like the White Sox. Jakob Junis will start here, looking to build off a strong finish to '18 where he won his final three starts and four of his last five. He allowed 3 ER or fewer in 9 of his last 10 starts. Chicago's Lopez had a similar strong finish to the year, but he's backed by a very young lineup that is going to struggle to score runs here. Also, Lopez's numbers were much worse on the road in 2018. How about the fact Chicago is 16-42 following an off day, or 0 for their last 7 after giving up 5+ runs the last game? Play on KC 

AAA

This is a 10* play on SAN DIEGO

Expectations are higher than normal for San Diego this year due to the surprise signing of Manny Machado. Just how high this Padres club can climb is up for debate, but they got 2019 off to a good start by shutting out the Giants yesterday. It was a 2-0 win. While Machado was hitless, heavily hyped rookie Fernando Tatis singled twice in his debut. There are some that feel Tatis will have the bigger impact this season. As for the Giants, look for them to have little impact in the National League West. They are about to embark on the same trip San Diego took the last couple years, that being a neccessary rebuild. Joey Lucchesi starts tonight for the Padres, looking to build off a season where he led the team with 130 strikeouts. Lucchesi looked good in the Spring and was 1-0 in two starts vs. the Giants last year. He'll face Derek Holland, whose ERA saw massive improvement in 2018, probably due to moving to the National League. But we don't expect a repeat of last year's 3.57 ERA nor do we expect much from the Giants offense after being shutout last night. Going back to the end of last year, San Diego has won four of five against San Fran. Play on SAN DIEGO

AAA

This is a 10* play on ATLANTA

The Hawks are a live dog in this situation as Portland is still adjusting to life without Jusuf Nurkic. Perhaps inspired by their injured teammate, the Blazers did win two nights ago by a score of 118-98. But that was against a terrible Chicago team. Nurkic isn't coming back as he suffered a horrible season-ending leg injury in Monday's double overtime victory against Brooklyn. His absence wasn't felt against the Bulls, but will be here in Atlanta. It's been a trying week with a double overtime game, never mind also losing arguably their best player not named Damian Lillard. Nurkic's replacement, Enes Kanter, is a major liability on the defensive end for a team that is already the weakest of the eight Western Conference playoff teams on that end of the floor. The Blazers road record this season is only 18-18 SU, a far cry from their 29-9 SU mark at home. By the way, Atlanta has quietly won three straight games. Two of those wins were against Philly and Utah. They are 7-2 ATS the last nine games overall. Play on ATLANTA

AAA

This is an 8* play on OVER Auburn-North Carolina

This game figures to see plenty of points. Both teams are averaging over 80 points per game in the tournament. Both average either more (North Carolina) or close to (Auburn) 80 PPG over the whole season. North Carolina scores the third most points in the country at 86.0 PPG. They should not have much trouble scoring here. A key advantage they have over Auburn is rebounding. The Tar Heels outrebound their opponents - on average - by about 10.5 per game. Auburn is at -3.5 rebounds per game. We expect lots of second chance points for the Tar Heels in this one. They just put up 81 against a Washington team that was top 20 in the country in defensive efficiency. We had the Under in that one and it stayed Under with North Carolina holding the Huskies to just 59 points. But Washington is fairly inept offensively, a description that clearly does not apply to Auburn. The Tigers have scored at least 78 points seven times during their 10-game win streak. The Over is 5-0 in their last five games vs. teams that have a win percentage north of .600. That includes 2-0 in the Tournament as they have given up 77 and 75 points. Play OVER Auburn-North Carolina 

AAA

This is a 10* play UNDER LSU-Michigan State

This should be a dogfight. LSU has won a couple of close games so far, sticking true to their profile. A 79-74 win over Yale and 69-67 win over Maryland makes it 11 wins this season by five points or less for the Tigers. That doesn't even include a pair of six-point overtime victories in conference play. Michigan State was shaky in Round 1 vs. Bradley (failed to cover), but totally shut down Big 10 rival Minnesota in the round of 32. Sparty won that game 70-50, holding the Golden Gophers to a 30.5% shooting percentage. LSU didn't shoot particularly well in their win over Maryland (36.9%) but was fortunate to hold the Terps to 33.3%. Expect this to be a low-scoring affair. In their last 13 games, MSU has allowed more than 70 points just one time. They are 18-7-1 to the Under when off an ATS victory. The Under is 5-2 in LSU's last seven games overall with both Overs coming against the same team - Florida. The total for both Florida games was lower than it is here. Michigan State won't be shooting 57.1% again here like they did vs. Minnesota. Play UNDER LSU-Michigan State

AAA

This is a 6* play on ST. LOUIS

Should be an easy two points tonight for the Blues, who could find themselves tied for second place in the Central Division if all breaks right for them tonight. First they need to beat the Rangers, which seems likely given the current state of their opponent. New York has won just once in its last eight games with five of the seven losses coming by three goals or more. At this point, the Rangers are just looking forward to summer vacation as they've been out of contention for some time. St. Louis is on a four-game win streak and has played as well as any team in the league in the second half. They are 34-17-5 since Craig Berube took over behind the bench, including a 20-5-3 record their past 28 games. Making life even easier is that the Blues have been off since Monday. They are already 5-2 this season when playing with three or more days rest. The team is 55-14 their past 69 games as a favorite of -201 or higher, so laying the juice is certainly justified in this particular instance. Play on ST. LOUIS

AAA

This is a 10* play on VIRGINIA 

Favorites have dominated this year's NCAA Tournament and there's no better way to illustrate that than to point to the fact there's only one team seeded lower than fifth left. Fourteen of the 16 teams seeded four or higher have gotten to the Sweet 16 and the other two were still favored to win in Round 2. That lone team left seeded lower than 5th would be Oregon, a 12-seed. But not only were they favored to win in the last round, they opened as a slight favorite against Wisconisin in the first round. But it's a bit step up for the Ducks in this round as they draw Virginia. This will undoubtedly be Oregon's toughest test in a run that has seen them win and cover 10 straight games. In the past five NCAA Tournaments, 1 seeds are 14-1 SU in the Sweet 16, covering the spread 12 times. No 12 seed has ever beaten a 1 seed in this round and most of the games haven't even been close. Virginia gives up the fewest points in the country and seems to be over the mental hurdle of losing last year in the first round to MD-Baltimore County, which was the first time ever that 1 seed lost to a 16. Oregon did a nice job defensively against Wisconsin and UC Irvine, but neither was/is a good offensive team. A little known fact about Virginia is they are #2 in the country in offensive efficiency. Play on VIRGINIA 

AAA

This is an 8* play on GONZAGA

Gonzaga has looked quite impressive so far. Unlike the other #1 seeds, they never trailed in the first round. Instead, they laid a severe beatdown on Farleigh Dickinson, 87-49, a game that was never close (53-17 lead at halftime). The Bulldogs also didn't have much problem with Baylor in the Round of 32. They won that game 83-71 and had a 16-point lead at halftime. Thursday, they'll face the team that eliminated them from last year's Sweet 16, that being Florida State. But last year's meeting saw Gonzaga coming in at less than full strength as Killian Tillie couldn't suit up and that had a dramatic effect on the team according to coach Mark Few. This time, the narrative is flipped as Florida State will have to play without Phil Cofer, who is back home for his father's funeral. It's hard enough to beat Gonzaga at full strength, let alone short handed. This Gonzaga team averages 88.6 points per game while shooting 53.2 percent. Both marks are easily tops in the country with the shooting percentage blowing away every other team. The revenge factor can sometimes be overrated, but not here. In the past five NCAA Tournaments, 1 seeds are 14-1 SU in the Sweet 16, covering the spread 12 times. Play on GONZAGA 

AAA

This is a 10* play on COLUMBUS

There's a lot on the line here. These two teams are vying against one another for the final Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference. Right now, Montreal has a two point edge over Columbus. That could obviously go away after tonight and we think it will. The Blue Jackets do have two more regulation + OT wins this season compared to the Canadiens. They are also coming off two straight shutouts where they outscored the Canucks and Islanders 9-0. Montreal just beat Florida 6-1, but that was at home and they haven't had to play many road games recently. The Habs have lost 4 of 5 on the road, getting oustcored by a 2:1 margin. While 2-0 against Columbus in the current season, they're not the more talented team here. Blue Jackets goalie Sergei Bobrovsky actually now leads the league with eight shutouts. He'll obviously be the one in goal tonight and may very well be the difference maker in a game his team must have. Play on COLUMBUS 

AAA

This is a 10* play on CINCINNATI

The Reds have had a hard time with the Pirates the last couple seasons, losing 14 of the last 19 head to head matchups. But they've also not been a very good team for awhile now. That could change in 2019 where improvement is expected. Many have them escaping the NL Central basement for the first time in forever and if they do, it's likely at the Pirates' expense. Cincy does start the season a little short-handed with 2B Scooter Gennett on the DL. But that loss will be mitigated today by the pitching of starter Luis Castillo, who had an excellent finish to 2018. Over his final 11 starts, Castillo struck out 69 batters in 66 1/3 innings and posted a 2.44 ERA. In the month of September, he allowed only 4 earned runs in 33 innings. We don't think Pittsburgh is going to be very good this season and starter Taillon is just 4-4 with a 4.30 ERA in 12 career starts vs. the Reds. Good price on the home team today. Play on CINCINNATI

AAA

This is an 8* play on CALGARY

Calgary has already clinched a playoff berth and now is trying to lock down a division title. They've got a six-point edge over ice cold San Jose and considering how the Sharks have looked of late, the Flames finishing first might be a formality at this point. But don't expect the home team to take this game lightly as they just lost 3-0 to the last place Kings on Monday. That game saw them finish with a 42-20 edge in shots, so that makes the final score even more disappointing. Dallas badly needs a win here too as they are trying to lock down at least a Wild Card spot. But Calgary has gone 25-8-5 at home and will be taking the ice with double revenge for two losses that occurred early in the season. In other words, any hopes the Stars had of Calgary not taking this game serious are false. Considering they just went 1-4 on a recent home stand, the likelihood of Dallas winning back to back games in Western Canada seem remote. They win in Winnipeg Monday, but not here. Play on CALGARY

AAA

This is a 10* play UNDER Indiana-Oklahoma City

These two have gone Under the last four times they've faced one another and the Pacers have been going Under with regularity of late. It's an 8-2 Under run for Indiana after turning in a very immpressive performance against Denver Sunday night, holding the Nuggets to just 88 points in a 36-point victory. The Pacers have consistently been one of the league's best defensive teams all season. They have the top scoring defense, allowing 103.9 points per game. They are third in defensive efficiency and right behind them in that department would be tonight's opponent, Oklahoma City. The Thunder have been struggling of late, dropping five of six including an outright loss at Memphis the other night by a score of 115-103. They SHOULD bounce back tonight against a Pacers team playing on the road for the fifth time in the last six games. As impressive as beating Denver was, Indiana had lost four in a row before that - all on the road - and they averaged just 99 points per game in those losses. They definitely miss not having Victor Oladipo, whose season is done because of injury. Play UNDER Indiana-OKC 

AAA

This is an 8* play on DePaul

Both of these teams scored an insane amount of points in their last game. Coastal Carolina dropped a shocking 109 points on West Virginia (in Morgantown!) in an upset as 10.5-point underdogs. DePaul scoring 97 at home vs. Longwood was less shocking when you consider it was the fourth time in the last six games they'd reached at least 90. There's a pair of 100+ point efforts in there as well for the Blue Demons, so they seem like the more consistent scoring bunch in this one and they're laying a much shorter number this time around compared to the line for the Longwood game. DePaul averages more than 80 points per game at home and should have its way with a Coastal Carolina defense that's giving up 76.2 PPG on the road. The oddsmakers probably couldn't make this total high enough, but they apparently "forgot about the spread" as it's too low considering DePaul's perfect 5-0 ATS mark when taking on an opponent that just scored 100 or more in its last game. Play on DEPAUL 

AAA

This is an 8* play on DENVER

Denver is off an embarrassing loss as Indiana as they went down 124-88 in one of their uglier performances all year. Such a lousy effort was ill-timed with them currently locked into a tight battle with Golden State for the #1 seed in the Western Conference. Right now, the Nuggets trail the Warriors by one-half game, so a win tonight would square things up with only nine games left in the regular season. Motivation should not be an issue here at home where the Nuggets are 30-6 SU, 23-13 ATS and winning by an average of almost 11 points per game. They've got revenge on the mind tonight as well due to having lost in Detroit (by 26!) early in February. This season has seen Denver go a perfect 9-0 against the number at home when seeking revenge for a loss where they were a road favorite. Even though they're a likely playoff team in the East, the Pistons have been quite shaky on the road where their record for the season is only 14-23. They've lost five of their last six games away from home, including some real wretched efforts, and the one win was against Phoenix. The Mile High City is one of the LAST places in the league they're likely to turn that around. Play on DENVER 

AAA

This is an 8* play on the CLIPPERS

The Clippers are hot right now. They've won 10 of their last 11 and five straight. Tonight, they'll hope to avoid what happened the last time they were on a five-game win streak and that's lose. That last loss occurred at home against Portland, but tonight they'll be facing much weaker competition in the form of Minnesota. Even though this is a road game, Los Angeles still should roll considering they have a lot to play for and the Timberwolves do not. Minny was officially eliminated from playoff contention last week, an appropriate result for such a disappointing season. They'd lost five in a row before winning at Memphis on Saturday. While the Timberwolves have a 23-11 record at home, we just don't see them getting the cash tonight. Not with trends favoring the road team, such as the Clippers 11-4-1 ATS mark their past 16 trips to Minneapolis. That's part of a larger 20-8-1 ATS run by the road team in the series and the favorite has cashed four of the last five times they've played. Play on LA CLIPPERS

AAA

This is an 8* play on ATLANTA

The Hawks are a perfect 8-0 against the spread this season when they're playing on the road and off a win at home. They just beat Philadelphia, 129-127, at home on Saturday. They pulled the upset (were +7) thanks to Trae Young's game winner in the final seconds. It was Atlanta's second straight win over a playoff team as they also beat Utah (at home) last week. Now they're on the road, but they get a break - some would say a big one - as New Orleans looks to have totally given up on the season. Looking back, the Anthony Davis trade request definitely sunk this team's season, which is too bad as they were a playoff contender before Davis made his feelings known. Now the Pelicans have lost eight of nine, one of the games coming against the Hawks on March 10 when they lost 126-118. Defense has been almost non-existent for New Orleans, who is giving up an incredible number of points lately. Those last nine games have seen them allow: 114, 127, 128, 130, 122, 138, 125, 119 and 113 points. It hasn't helped that in the last two games they've been held to 96 and 90 themselves. Atlanta will want this one more. Play on ATLANTA

AAA

This is a 10* OVER play on Buffalo-Ottawa

The Sabres were dealt a 3-1 loss last night in New Jersey, their 12th consecutive loss on the road. It's the club's longest road losing streak in four years and it's played a significant role in the team already being eliminated from playoff contention. Back when they were winning 10 in a row in November, Sabres fans could not have fathomed such an ugly end to this season. But tonight is as good a chance as any to snap this losing streak as the Sabres are in Ottawa. The Senators have the fewest points in the league and have given up the most goals. Still, Buffalo can't be too confident after having given up 26 goals itself the last six games. If there was one thing to "like" about last night's game, it was that the Sabres had 46 shots on goal. So they're still trying. We like their chances to slip plenty of goals past Ottawa goalie Craig Anderson, who has been terrible in two previous starts vs. Buffalo this season (4.05 GAA). Buffalo won 9-2 the last time they faced the Senators. Play OVER Buffalo-Ottawa

AAA

This is a 10* play on HAMPTON

This is a second round matchup in the College Insider Tournament and we believe Hampton will enjoy a significant advantage due to having the home court. The Pirates 1st round CIT game was here at home and they beat St. Francis 81-72 as 8.5-point favorites. Their home record is now 11-3 for the season with them covering the spread in 8 of a possible 11 chances. They sure can score at home as they average 86.4 points per game. They also play much better defense, giving up only 70.8 points per game. Now a member of the Big South, this will be Hampton's second meeting of the year with Charleston Southern, whom they defeated in the regular season by a score of 94-82. That was a home game and the Pirates were favored by four points. We are shocked that they're favored by LESS for this postseason rematch. Charleston Southern barely got by Florida Atlantic in its first round CIT game, winning by only two despite shooting the ball much better. The Buccaneers don't get to the free throw line enough and that will cost them on the road against a high-scoring opponent. Play on HAMPTON

AAA

This is an 8* play on PORTLAND

Portland scratched out a cover for us on Saturday, beating Detroit by five (were laying -4.5). It's a slightly larger spread tonight against Brooklyn, but that should be the case even though the Nets have covered three in a row. One of those games was a loss (at LAC) and then the Nets pulled out two close wins against Sacramento and the Lakers. One of those games (Sacramento), they trailed by 25 in the fourth quarter. Tonight will be their sixth straight road game, a trip which started 12 days ago in Oklahoma City. Portland has won six of seven with three straight wins coming at home. The Blazers are a very good bet at home considering they're 39-19-1 ATS the last 59 times playing here. They've already won in Brooklyn, by double digits, last month. They are 28-9 SU here this season, winning by an average margin of 8.2 points per game and most of those games come against Western Conference teams. Brooklyn being a likely playoff team is simply a byproduct of playing in the weak Eastern Conference. The Nets are 21-4 straight game in games where they are favored, but only 17-32 when they are the underdog. Play on PORTLAND

AAA

This is a 10* play on NORFOLK STATE

Norfolk State pulled a pretty big upset its last time out, upsetting Alabama (one of the NIT's four 1-seeds) 80-79 as 16-point underdogs. They're again getting no respect from the oddsmakers here against Colorado with the winner moving on to face Texas (another OT winner in its last game) two days from now in a quarterfinal matchup. The Spartans were regular season champs in the MEAC with a 14-2 conference record, so they "know how to win" and we think they're getting too many points here. Colorado is a strong home team (14-2 SU record), but it was only a five-point win over Dayton here in Boulder in 1st round NIT action. The Buffaloes are enjoying a strong finish to the year, but Norfolk State has not lost a game by double digits since before Christmas. They are 8-5 ATS as an underdog this season. Too many points for Colorado to lay here as the only time they were a double digit favorite this month (-10 vs. Cal) was one of two games they failed to cover the spread. Play on NORFOLK STATE

AAA

This is a 6* play on PITTSBURGH

The Penguins are not only trying to make the playoffs, they're going for a division title. There's a wide range of outcomes for where they can actually land in terms of playoff position, but the concern is winning the Metropolitan. They're three points back of Washington entering play tonight and can tie the second place Islanders with a win here. (Both Washington and NY won Sunday). Winning tonight should not be difficult as the Pens play the Rangers. The Blueshirts are officially eliminated from contention and figure to "mail this one in" after a surprising overtime win in Toronto on Saturday. The last time New York won back to back games was back before the All Star Break. Since then, they are 0-7 SU off a win and have dropped 18 of 26 games overall. Pittsburgh is 13-4-4 its last 21 games. While many of the wins have been close, you have to like the way goalie Matt Murray has played of late. He is 7-2-2 his last 11 starts, posting a 2.08 goals against average and .939 save percentage. Throw in the Penguins offensive firepower (3.34 goals per game) and we're not sure how the Rangers stand a chance here. They've already lost two meetings to Pittsburgh earlier this year, giving up 13 goals in the process. The Penguins are 10-4 the last 14 meetings. Play on PITTSBURGH

AAA

This is an 8* play OVER Utah Valley-USF

There should be plenty of points scored in this CBI matchup Monday evening. Utah Valley State just scored 91 in their last game (while giving up 84) and they've been pretty prolfic this entire season. The Wolverines average 77.6 points per game overall and have exceeded that average over the last five games. South Florida just gave up 48 points in a half to its previous opponent, Stony Brook, before coming back to win. That was the most points scored by Stony Brook in any half this season. USF wound up getting the three-point win in overtime, thanks to a strong defensive effort after halftime, but strong defensive efforts have been somewhat few and far between with this group. The Bulls two previous opponents both shot better than 54% from the field and Utah Valley is certainly capable of doing the same as they shoot 38.5% from three-point range. USF's last four games have all gone Over as have the last two for Utah Valley. The Over is 7-0 in USF's last seven home games and 6-0 the last six times Utah Valley has taken on a team with a win percentage above .600. Play OVER Utah Valley State-South Florida

AAA

This is an 8* play on COLUMBUS

We played against Vancouver last night and they lost here at home to Calgary by a score of 3-1. The opponent isn't quite as strong Sunday night, but they are more desperate. Columbus is on the outside looking in when it comes to the playoff picture in the Eastern Conference. They need two points just to keep pace w/ Montreal, who holds the final Wild Card spot and is three points ahead. The Blue Jackets have done themselves no favors recently by losing three in a row. But that losing streak should end tonight as the Canucks are without rest and motivation. Losses at both Boston and Calgary were excusable for C-bus, but the 4-1 loss they suffered at Edmonton Thursday night was not. Fortunately, the Jackets are 16-7 coming off a multi-goal loss this year. An offense that has averaged only 2.08 goals per game since the trade deadline really needs to get going. It should here against a Vancouver team that is below average defensively. The Blue Jackets have revenge here too as they lost at home to the Canucks back in December. A good spot for the road team to get back on track. Play on COLUMBUS

AAA

This is a 10* play UNDER UC Irvine-Oregon

We're guaranteed to have at least one Sweet Sixteen team seeded 12th or lower thanks to this matchup. While it can and will be said that both Oregon and UC Irvine pulled upsets, really, only the latter truly did. Oregon actually opened as a 1-pt favorite for its first round game vs. Wisconsin and for good reason. The Ducks are as hot right now as any team in the country. The 72-54 win and cover over the Badgers was their ninth in a row. As in they're 9-0 SU and ATS the last nine games. Seven of those nine victims were held to a field goal percentage of 34.0 or lower. Speaking of defense, that's how UC Irvine pulled the biggest upset in terms of seed (13 over 4), beating Kansas State. The Big West Champs are no slouch and we don't expect Oregon to shoot 54.9% from the floor in this game (like they did vs. Wisconsin). No UC Irvine opponent has shot better than 42.0 percent its last 12 games. We get that it's a low total. But the Under is 12-3 in Oregon's past 15 games. UC Irvine has gone Under in 15 of its last 22 when facing a team with a win percentage of .600 or better. Two good defensive teams go Under. Play UNDER UC Irvine-Oregon

AAA

This is a 10* UNDER on Denver-Indiana

Indiana has done a great job at staying Under the total recently with eight of their last nine games going that way. But so has Denver, who is riding a five-game Under streak entering Sunday and 14-1 Under its last 15 games. During a six-game win streak, the Nuggets have allowed an average of just 102 points per game. They should not have much trouble containing a Pacers team that is beginning to really miss not having leading scorer Victor Oladipo. But one thing that Indiana does still have is the league's top scoring defense as they are giving up just 104.2 PPG for the season and that number drops to 100.2 when playing at home. Denver isn't nearly as prolific on offense when they're on the road as they're scoring average dips over seven points per game compared to at home. Due almost exclusively to that drop in scoring, the Under is 23-12 in all Nuggets road games. These teams just played last Saturday, in Denver, and the Nuggets prevailed 102-100. The rematch should be just as low scoring, if not more so due to Denver's decrease in scoring on the road and Indiana's superb defense at home. Play UNDER Denver-Indiana

AAA

This is a 10* play on NORTH CAROLINA

Three ACC teams received #1 seeds in this Tournament and all three surprisingly struggled with their first round opponent. In the case of North Carolina, they were actually down 38-33 to Iona at halftime. But the Tar Heels exploded in the second half, scoring 55 points and won easily. Meanwhile, Washington may not have been able to play any better than it did against Utah State. They won 78-61, leading virtually the whole way. But we don't expect the Huskies to play that well again and UNC should certainly start better than they did Friday night. For what it's worth, the Tar Heels are 8-1 against the spread away from Chapel Hill, if coming off an Under. The Iona game did stay Under a very high total. Washington is not a good offensive team. Believe it or not, they have the lowest offensive efficiency of any team left in the tournament - with the exception of UC Irvine. Twice, Oregon held UW below 50 points late in the year, one of those in the Pac 12 Tournament Final. North Carolina is an even better defensive team that Oregon. Obviously, there's no comparison on offense as the Tar Heels average 86.1 points per game. Play on NORTH CAROLINA

AAA

This is an 8* UNDER Washington-North Carolina

We expect North Carolina to roll in this second round matchup with Washington, but don't go expecting them to hit their season average in points per game. Thanks to a big second half, they did hit 88 in the first round. But that was against a bad defensive team in Iona. Washington is actually very good on the defensive end as it holds its foes to an average of 64.3 points per game. The Huskies really kept Utah State in check Friday night, limiting them to 61 points on 35.2% shooting. But the UW offense will be what ultimately costs the team this game. It's been a 63.4 PPG average the last five games, which includes a pair of sub-50 point efforts against Oregon. UNC is even stronger than Oregon on the defensive end. That the Huskies struggled so much on offense in a weak Pac 12 is a very bad sign for this game. They shot much better than usual against Utah State, which we don't see being the case here. Four of North Carolina's last five games have gone Under with none of those opponents scoring 75 points. The Under is now 4-0 in the Tar Heels' previous four Tournament games. Washington is 6-1 Under its last 7 games following an ATS victory. Play UNDER Washington-North Carolina

AAA

This is a 7* play on CALGARY

Vancouver has won three in a row, but that comes with a bit of a caveat considering two of the wins were against Chicago and Ottawa. It's a much stiffer test tonight against Calgary and while it comes at home, we don't see the Canucks as being up for the challenge. The division leading Flames have gotten a gift in the form of San Jose losing five straight, thus it's now a four point lead in the Pacific. Getting two more points tonight would be huge as there's only seven games left to play in the regular season. The Flames have also helped themselves by winning five of six and they've done plenty of scoring with 30 goals in that stretch. Vancouver scored seven times in its win over Ottawa on Wednesday night (Calgary's last opponent was also Ottawa and they scored five goals). But as we said at the open, this is a much tougher opponent. Calgary is tied for the second fewest number of goals allowed on the road this season. The Canucks' recent play just isn't indicative of the kind of season they're having while it's been "par for the course" with the Flames. Play on CALGARY

AAA

This is a 10* play on PORTLAND

Portland seems too short of a favorite here as they really are a much better team than Detroit. Based on the way they are priced though, you'd think the oddsmakers were of the opinion that these teams were relative equals. That is certainly not the case however as the Blazers play in the tougher conference, have a better overall record and vastly superior point differential. Even with an 8-3 March, the Pistons have still been outscored on the year and recent efforts on the road leave a lot to be desired. They did just win in Phoenix on Thursday, but before that lost in Cleveland and were also held to 75 and 74 points in key losses at Brooklyn and Miami. Detroit is only 14-21 SU on the road and lacks the offensive firepower to keep up with a Portland team that averages 117.1 points per game in its home arena. The Blazers have a home record of 27-9 SU and are coming off back to back eight point wins over Indiana and Dallas. They've won five of six overall with every win coming by at least eight points. The final score of Detroit's last game is a little misleading (they won by 20 points) as they were actually down at halftime. Play on PORTLAND

AAA

This is an 8* play on OVER Phoenix-Sacramento

Despite these being two of the very worst defensive teams in all of basketball, the Kings and Suns have managed to produce a couple of Unders the two times they've met in 2019. A matchup early in the season did go Over, but a much lower number. But oddsmakers don't seem to be fooled by those head to head results, nor are we. Phoenix gives up 116.1 points per game, tied for the most in the Western Conference, while Sacramento isn't too far behind as they allow 114.8. The Suns only scored 98 points in their last game and held Detroit to 42.2% shooting (still lost by 20). That's not indicative of how most of their games go. After scoring 60 points in the first half, they were held to just 38 in the second. Sacramento's last game was also a much better than usual defensive effort as they held Dallas to 100 points on 39.1% shooting. We just can't see this game NOT turning into a "track meet" and that means Over is the call. Play OVER Sacramento-Phoenix

AAA

This is an 8* play on PURDUE

It was not pretty, but defending champion Villanova was able to hold on to defeat St. Mary's 61-57 in their 1st round game Thursday. A little later on in the day, Purdue had a much easier time against Old Dominion, winning that game by double digits. Both games fell right near the number, but for us, the Boilermakers were a winner. We'll go with the Boilers yet again tonight as they are the superior side and 'Nova is still getting too much respect based on the fact they are the defending National Champs. But this year's team isn't nearly as good despite rolling to another Big East title. Purdue tied Michigan State for the best regular season record in the Big 10, which is something that seems to go unnnoticed. They just held ODU to 26.9% shooting and 49 points. While it obviously won't be as easy against Villanova, the Boilermakers are the much better defensive team here. In terms of defensive efficiency, there are only three teams left in the field of 32 with a worse rating than the Wildcats. Purdue enjoying a double digit advantage for almost the entire game against ODU is even more impressive when you consider they played without their starting point guard (he's a "full go" for tonight) and leading scorer Carsen Edwards shot just 7 of 23. We like Purdue a lot here. Play on PURDUE

AAA

This is a 10* play on UNDER Wofford-Kentucky

Kentucky turned in one of the more dominant first round performances, beating Abilene Christian 79-44. It was a first half romp as UK raced out to an 18-3 advantage, led 39-13 at the break and it was over from there. This was without P.J. Washington mind you. Not having Washington hardly mattered against a team like Abilene Christian, but could hurt the Wildcats against Wofford. The Terriers used a second half surge to win their game against Seton Hall Thursday, ending the game on a 22-6 run. Being that Kentucky does not make a lot of threes (only made 4 vs. ACU), but will do a better job defending Wofford than Seton Hall did, this game has all the makings of an Under. Kentucky will not be shooting 62% on two-point attempts again like they did Thursday. Similarly, Wofford will not find the same three point success here as they did vs. Seton Hall. The Under is 22-12 in all UK games this season, including 11-3 the last 14. A second game in three days will also lead to a slower pace. Play UNDER Wofford-Kentucky

AAA

This is an 8* play UNDER Maryland-LSU

The size advantage that both Maryland and LSU enjoyed in their first round victories simply will not be present here. Both teams are big and talented in the frontcourt, so second chance points should be kept to a minimum. LSU is not known as a great defensive team by any means. However, they did just hold Yale to a 37.5 FG%. Maryland isn't going to shoot the lights out here either as when you take them out of College Park, they are hitting at only 42.5% and averaging 65.9 points. But what the Terrapins can do is play outstanding defense. Their opponents are shooting below 40% for the year. Neither team should score as many here as they did in Round 1. The Under is 6-2 in Maryland's previous eight neutral site games. It was an Over vs. Belmont, but that's a team that plays at an ultra-fast pace. LSU doesn't exactly play "slow," but the Under is now 9-1 in their last 10 NCAA Tournament games. Play UNDER Maryland-LSU

AAA

This is a 10* play OVER Brooklyn-LA LAKERS

Points should be plentiful in this late night matchup Friday. Brooklyn is in the midst of a somewhat difficult seven-game road trip as it tries to make the playoffs. The trip did not start well as they lost the first three games. But they won at Sacramento Tuesday night, ironically doing so in spite of a defensive effort that was far worse than what we'd been seeing recently from them. They let the Kings score 121 points on 51.6% shooting. The prior seven Nets games all saw the opponent shoot 43.3% or worse from the field. But on the road trip, they're still giving up almost 116 points per game. The Lakers are obviously a dumpster fire right now and have thrown in the towel. But they still have LeBron James and last we checked, he's still really good. James is averaging 27.5 points, 8.5 rebounds and 8.0 assists this season. He sat out the team's 115-101 loss to Milwaukee Tuesday night as his teammates combined to shoot just 38.4%. We expect both teams to score a lot tonight and for this game to go Over the total. Play OVER Brooklyn-LA Lakers

AAA

This is a 10* play on VCU

VCU is a team to keep an eye on in this Tournament due to the defense they play. They're also probably underseeded. The Rams were regular season champs in the A-10, but were bounced early in their conference tournament by an upset-minded Rhode Island team. We look for VCU to come out a make a statement here in their first round NCAA Tournament game. UCF also didn't last long in the American Tournament as they ran into the host school, Memphis, and got blown out 79-55. The Golden Knights actually enter the Tourney on a two-game losing streak as they got beat by Temple in the regular season finale. Both games they shot poorly. VCU holds its opponents to a 38.4 FG%. We know Marcus Evans hurt his knee in the loss to Rhode Island, but this is a deep team as 11 players regularly get on the court. VCU is 15-4 ATS its last 19 NCAA Tournament games. Play on VCU 

AAA

This is a 7* play on WASHINGTON

Washington has lost only three of its last 12 games and two of the losses were to Tampa Bay. The Lightning just got them here in D.C. Wednesday, winning a 5-4 decision in overtime. That game saw the Capitals outshoot TB 58-28, which is the kind of effort that typically results in victory. On the bright side, the Caps were able to at least earn a point and stay in front in the Metropolitan. Tonight's opponent is Minnesota, who is just trying to sneak into the playoffs over in the Western Conference. But the Wild have failed to help themselves lately, losing five of their last six games and seven of the last nine. Still, they're only one point back of the Wild Card, but a -17 goal differential tell us that this team is "not ready for primetime," let alone the Capitals. The Wild have not scored more than two goals in any of their last five losses. Washington is 24-11 SU against teams with losing records this season (Wild are 34-31-9) and not only are they 9-2 SU the L11 head to head meetings, they've won five straight at home over Minnesota. Home team gets the two points. Play on WASHINGTON

AAA

This is an 8* play OVER Arizona State-Buffalo

We took the Under in Arizona State's game Wednesday, which they won handily. But this time won't be facing an offensively inept team like St. John's, whom they limited to 31.9% shooting. Instead it will be Buffalo, one of the highest scoring teams in the country. The MAC Champion Bulls average 84.9 points per game and when you couple that with the fact ASU averages 77.7, you have the recipe for a high-scoring affair. Yes, we definitely cited the Sun Devils strong field goal percentage defense as a reason to expect Wednesday's game to go Under. But Buffalo should prove too difficult to stop. They play at a very fast tempo as is evident by them topping 80 points in five striaght games. ASU isn't too far behind, scoring at least 74 in its last five games. With ASU coach Bobby Hurley having previously coached at Buffalo, there should be no surprises defensively here. Play OVER Arizona State-Buffalo

AAA