This is an 8* play on the Over

We know the Chiefs are going to score as they've put up at least 26 points in all games started by Patrick Mahomes. They've gone over 30 in three of four this year. The one exception was a 28-10 win over Oakland where they scored all 28 points in a single quarter. The Colts defense just gave up 31 points in a loss to the Raiders last week, so this hardly seems like an ideal matchup for them. But of course, the Chiefs defense isn't very good either. They've given up 26 points or more to every opponent but the Raiders. Indianapolis should be good for at least 24 points by the end of this game as that's the threshold they've hit in three of four games, a matchup with Tennessee (top five scoring defense) the lone exception. The Over is 6-0 when the Chiefs gained at least 350 total yards in their last game. They gained 438 in last week's wild 34-30 win over the Lions. That game could have featured even more scoring were in not for turnovers by both teams. The Chiefs defense actually ended up giving up more than 450 yards. Three of the Chiefs games this year have seen at least 61 total points scored. This number is high, but the issue is oddsmakers just don't seem willing to open the number higher. Until they do, KC strictly remains an Over team. Play OVER Indianapolis-Kansas City

AAA

*Bonus Pick Chiefs 1st Half

THis is an 8* play on ARIZONA

A battle of winless teams has "upset" written all over it, if you can even call it that. The 0-3-1 Cardinals are underdogs to the 0-4 Bengals, but it's the dog that's played better in our opinion. Cincinnati looked absolutely dreadful Monday night in a 27-3 loss to Pittsburgh. This team just doesn't have much. It was just 175 total yards gained against a bad Steelers defense. Two times in the first three weeks, the Bengals were game on the road. They came up one point short in Seattle and only four points short in Buffalo. But really the only "good" game was the Seattle one. They were shutout in the first half by the Bills before a second half rally proved futile. Cincy has gotten crushed by the 49ers 41-17, their only home game so far. Arizona was competitive the first two games, tying Detroit and losing by only six to Baltimore. But losing back to back home games by double digits was certainly disappointing. Still, we rate Arizona as the better team here. With them taking the points, it's an automatic play for us. Both teams have offensive line issues, but the Bengals are worse. Kyler Murray will make more plays than Andy Dalton. Cincy is not only 1-6 ATS off a division loss, they are 1-6 straight up. Play on ARIZONA

AAA

This is a 10* play on the TITANS

The 2-2 Titans host the 3-1 Bills and the big story heading into this game is who will play quarterback for the road team. Josh Allen was knocked out of last week's 16-10 loss to the Patriots. For much of the week, there was speculation that Matt Barkley would have to start for Buffalo. But Allen has reportedly cleared concussion protocol and will be under center. We're still taking Tennessee. After back to back losses, the Titans looked good last week in a 24-10 upset of Atlanta. You wouldn't know it was an upset simply by watching as they controlled that game from start to finish. After playing three of their first four games on the road, it'll be nice playing at home this week. The Titans were 12-4 SU at home the last two years, but did lose here to the Colts in Week 2. But they were ahead in that game in the 4th quarter. Buffalo left a lot on the line last week in an unsuccessful bid to upset the Patriots at home. The Bills did win their first two road games, but those were against the Jets and Giants. Tennessee is better and should shut down the Bills offense. Turnovers could be a determining factor. Marcus Mariota is the only QB in the league to start every game and not have a turnover. Allen has six interceptions and two fumbles. Play on TENNESSEE

AAA

This is a 10* on the OVER

The Patriots could go Over this total themselves. Mark it down. One of the NFL's two 4-0 teams, New England heads to D.C. this weekend to take on the Redskins, who are one of the league's four 0-4 teams. Obviously, this is a gross mismatch. But the pointspread reflects that. What the O/U line doesn't reflect, however, it just how bad the Washington defense is. They gave up over 30 points the last three games, one of them against Mitchell Trubisky and the Bears (who were struggling to move the ball previous to that game) and then 24 more to the Giants last week. It easily could have been more than 24 points allowed last week, but the Giants turned it over four times. You can bet Tom Brady won't be that careless with the ball this week. The Patriots offense will also be eager to atone for last week's subpar effort, which came against a very good Bills defense. They go from facing one of the league's best defenses to one of its worst. Colt McCoy (yikes!) and the Washington offense probably won't do much here, but a single TD or maybe 10 points might be all we need here for an Over. Play OVER New England-Washington

AAA

This is a 10* play on EDMONTON

It's the season opener for Los Angeles while Edmonton is playing its second game after beating Vancouver 3-2 on Opening Night. We don't think that's any kind of advantage here for the Kings, and possibly it may prove to be a disadvantage. For starters, this is not a good team. LA finished last in the Pacific a season ago with only 71 points. The only team in the league that finished with fewer points was Ottawa (64). The Oilers have at least gotten a chance to get out on the ice and skate. They looked pretty good in downing the Canucks as they scored three goals on just 22 shots. The most encouraging sign of all was Connor McDavid scoring the game winner. The Kings do not project to be a whole lot better for the 2019-20 season and are an easy fade here. Play on EDMONTON

AAA

This is a 10* play on the UNDER

We were on the Astros in Game 1, a relatively easy call as they rolled to a 6-2 victory. Justin Verlander did his job by throwing seven shutout innings and Houston led 6-0 by the time they went to the bullpen. Though Tampa Bay did end up scoring twice in the top of the eighth, they were faced with an insurmountable edge. Those two runs that the Rays scored weren't totally insignificant though, pardon the pun, as they did send the game Over the total. Given that the game was still a scoreless tie through four innings, that had to be a heartbreaker for Under bettors. We'll provide them with some much needed relief for Game 2 though as this one should stay Under. The Rays go from facing Verlander to now having to deal w/ Gerritt Cole. That's rough. Cole set team records in the regular season by winning his last 16 decisions and striking out 326 batters. His 2.50 ERA was not only a career-best, but also topped all American League starters this year. So look for the Rays to have another tough night at the plate. If they are to have any chance of winning Game 2, it will be because of their own starter, Blake Snell, last year's Cy Young winner. While it's been awhile since Snell pitched more than three innings (missed two months due to elbow surgery), we've got confidence that he'll pitch relatively well in this spot. The Under is 4-0 in Snell's previous four starts vs. the Astros. Play UNDER Tampa Bay-Houston

AAA

This is an 8* play on MICHIGAN STATE

Right about now, you won't find many takers willing to step up and get in front of this Ohio State juggernaut as the Buckeyes have rolled through their first five opponents. Those five opponents have been outscored 262-43. Half of the points allowed came in the first game, a 45-21 over Florida Atlantic. Nebraska was no match last week, even with the game in Lincoln, as OSU won there 48-7. But one team we're banking on "stepping up to bat" is Michigan State. The Spartans will be Ohio State's toughest test yet in what promises to be the first game the Buckeyes don't score at least 40 points. Michigan State did give up 31 last week to Indiana, but continues to have one of the best defenses in the entire country as they allow just 15 points game. A straight up win is probably out of the realm of possibility Saturday night in Columbus, but the underdog should be able to keep this game relatively tight. How often do you see Michigan State getting this many points? Not often. In the past five seasons, the Spartans have been an underdog of 20 or more points only two times. Those games were against Michigan and Ohio State in the forgettable 2016 season and both times Sparty covered, losing by only a total of nine points. They were a double digit dog once last year (at Penn State) and took the game on the field. Dantonio has won twice in Columbus before. The last two meetings haven't gone well, but we expect a focused effort from the underdog Saturday night that will lead them to covering the spread. Play on MICHIGAN STATE

AAA

This is an 8* play on TENNESSEE

You probably won't be seeing anyone pick Tennessee on College GameDay Saturday morning on ESPN. The Vols come into this game with Georgia as massive underdogs at Neyland Stadium and that can't come as a shock given their early season losses to Georgia State and BYU. Georgia is a top three team in the country having been to the playoff each of the past two years. But with the pointspread, there's hope for UT as Georgia is just 3-9-1 ATS the L13 years in this rivalry game. This will be among the biggest pointspreads ever for Georgia-Tennessee. While there's no defending those first two games for Tennessee, or the last one against Florida, they are certainly capable of staying within the number. Before being blown out each of the last two years by UGA, the previous five meetings were decided by a total of 23 points.  Both teams are off a bye, which makes this an interesting handicap. We played against Georgia two weeks ago when they hosted Notre Dame. That was a winner for us. This game now means more to Tennessee as their season could snowball rather quickly. It's hard to wrap your head around the fact the Vols are just 3-13 ATS their previous 16 home games. But rarely are they getting a number of this magnitude. They failed to cover a similar spread last year vs. Alabama, but they're a better team now (despite the record). Coach Jeremy Pruitt is being coy with his quarterback situation, which may provide an early advantage. Bottom line is that the number is just too large here to pass up. Play on TENNESSEE

AAA

This is a 10* on the OVER

UAB will be looking to rebound from a disappointing loss it suffered last week at Western Kentucky. The Blazers were three-point favorites, but went down by a score of 20-13 thanks in no small part to turning the ball over four times. All four turnovers were interceptions thrown by QB Tyler Johnston III. They led to just six points (two field goals) by WKU, but it could have been worse as one came at the end of the first half. It was a big step back for Johnston, who had thrown for over 300 yards each of the previous two games. It was also UAB's 1st Conference USA loss since the meaningless regular season finale against Middle Tennessee last year. Before that, the Blazers had won 11 straight conference games. They are unbeaten at home since the program returned to the field in 2917 (14-0 SU). Rice meanwhile is still searching for its first win of the year as they are 0-5 against what has been a challenging schedule. The Owls have just three wins going back to 2017, but have generally been more competitive in 2019. They took Louisiana Tech to OT last week, for example. But the defense is still giving up a 68.3% completion rate to opposing QB's and 6.3 yards per play. So sfter scoring a season-low 13 points last week, we look for the UAB offense to rebound here. This was a 42-0 game last year. Look for Rice to definitely get on the board Saturday and them doing so should be enough to help this one get Over a low number. The Over has hit each of the last four times the teams have met here in Birmingham. Play OVER Rice-UAB 

AAA

This is a 10* play on NEBRASKA 

Northwestern's reputation as a dog seems to precede itself here. While the Wildcats did cover last week as road dogs, they did so thanks to a huge number at Wisconsin. The Badgers couldn't possibly match the intensity from the previous week against Michigan and that showed right from the opening kickoff. But don't forget about what happened two weeks ago when Northwestern hosted Michigan State. They were the rare instance of the public being on the dog and got waxed by Sparty 31-10. We took MSU in that one, saying that Pat Fitzgerald's ATS record as an underdog didn't hold any water with us this year. Well, that still holds true. Northwestern was very lucky to win 10 games last year. Whatever their final record in 2019 ends up being will reflect that as luck won't be so good this season. In three losses so far, the Wildcats have scored 7, 10 and 15 points. Yes, Nebraska got manhandled last Saturday night at home by Ohio State. But the Buckeyes are manhandling everybody right now. The Cornhuskers can score (31+ points in each of the first four games) and will score enough here to cover this spread with room to spare. Lay it! Play on NEBRASKA

AAA

This is an 8* play on WEST VIRGINIA

West Virginia is an ugly 3-1, but their record is nevertheless 3-1. The fact that they've won ugly doesn't make them any less dangerous this week in Morgantown. Yes, they only beat James Madison by 7 despite being +3 in the turnover margin. They also needed some good fortune to win at Kansas last week. But let's not forget the only other time they've been a home dog. A highly touted NC State team came to Morgantown and got beat 44-27. Texas best be on high alert here or the same fate could be awaiting them Saturday afternoon. The Longhorns do have a perceived advantage in that they are coming off a bye week. Before the bye, they picked up a big win over Oklahoma State, 36-30 in Austin. But this is a team that often struggles to cover when its favored. Last year, they were 1-4 ATS as an away favorite. Two of those games - at Maryland and Oklahoma State - resulted in outright defeats. West Virginia is not a home dog all that often that and this will be the first season it's happened twice since 2014. Maybe that's a sign of the times in Morgantown, but don't make the mistake of laying this number when history suggests the game will be close. The Mountaineers have beaten the Longhorns three of the last four seasons, including 42-41 last year in Austin. Play on WEST VIRGINIA

AAA

This is a 10* play on NEW MEXICO

Truthfully, neither of these teams should have covered last week. San Jose State, getting 19.5 against Air Force, was still down 41-10 with just under four minutes to go in the game. They scored a touchdown to make it 41-17. What happened next is the kind of gift/horror that only those fully entrenched in the betting community can lay claim to experiencing. Air Force decided to go for it on 4th & 1 from their own 22! They failed to pick up the yard and San Jose State quickly responded with another TD (just 52 seconds remaining) to steal the cover. New Mexico did something similar in its game vs. Liberty, scoring a TD with just 43 seconds remaining. While they still lost 17-10, the Lobos happened to be getting 7.5 points. Who will be lucky enough to cover this week? For us, this comes down to the simple fact that San Jose State should never be bet as a favorite. The last time the Spartans were favored by more than a field goal against a FBS team was 2015! New Mexico might be bad, but they're not THAT bad. San Jose State is only 8-12 straight up its last 20 conference home games and has lost 24 of its last 29 games overall. New Mexico has covered four of the last five times it's been an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. Take the Lobos and the points here. Play on NEW MEXICO

AAA

This is a 10* play on OVER Twins-Yankees

These teams certainly aren't lacking in the run production department. They are the only two teams in baseball history to hit 300+ home runs in a single season. Not coincidentally, they finished 1-2 in overall runs scored this year. The last time they met was late July and not only did all three games go Over the total, all of them saw at minimum 14 runs scored. We know it's now the postseason, but this seems like a really low O/U line for these two clubs. Neither starter really impresses us as Jose Berrios (Twins) has a 4.85 ERA his past seven starts, having given up at least five runs in three of them. James Paxton (Yankees) seemingly got hot down the stretch as the Yankees have won all of his last 11 starts. But his last one saw him have to leave after one inning, so there's concern there. The Over is 8-2 in Paxton's last 10 starts, by the way. Yes, the Yankees have an incredible bullpen, but if the Twins lineup can get to Paxton, that won't be as big of a factor. We figure both teams are going to hit their fair share of home runs in this game and that means the Over is in play. Both sides are clearly capable of putting at least five runs on the board in Game 1. Play OVER Twins-Yankees

AAA

This is a 6* play on HOUSTON

With the best rotation in the game, it seems like everyone is picking the Astros to at least make it to the World Series. They definitely appear to have the decided edge for Game 1 of the LDS against Tampa Bay as Justin Verlander will be pitching with plenty of rest. Verlander is likely to finish in the top two of the Cy Young voting this year. His main competition will be teammate Gerrit Cole. Verlander has a 2.62 ERA and 0.81 WHIP in 34 starts this year, 24 of those resulting in Houston wins. The opposing pitcher for Game 1, Tyler Glasnow, actually has a lower ERA (1.78) and comparable WHIP (0.89) but in roughly one-third the starts Verlander has made. He missed a bulk of the season due to injury and also averages far less innings per start than does Verlander. While Houston has been off since Sunday, Tampa Bay obviously had to win the Wild Card Game to get to this point. This week has seen them go from Toronto to Oakland to Houston in a five-day span, which is a tough stretch, especially seeing as they're now matched up with one of the top two teams in baseball. The Astros were 60-21 at home in the regular season. They are 30-14 in day games (104-48 L3 seasons). Go with the better team. Play on HOUSTON

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

This is the start to the season for both teams and the game is being played in the Czech Republic (Prague) For the Blackhawks, Prague is better than Philly where they've lost 17 of their last 19 trips. There is some enthusiasm for this Chicago club despite missing the playoffs each of the last two seasons. There was a lot of turnover in personnel, but the biggest issue that needs fixing is on the goals allowed side of the ledger where they were second worst in the entire league last year. They gave up a fair number in the preseason, but with Corey Crawford back between the pipes, we should see improvement in that category moving forward. The Flyers have missed the playoffs four straight years and underwent some serious offseason changes as well. Carter Hart, who was a rookie last season, is now firmly entrenched as the #1 goalie here. Hart posted a 2.83 goals against average and .917 save percentage in his rookie season. With him spending more time between the pipes, we should see a reduction in the number of goals allowed by the Flyers this season. The Under is 8-1-2 in the last 11 meetings between these teams and this is a high number for the first game. The Under is also 16-2-4 the Blackhawks last 22 games vs. the Metropolitan. Play UNDER Chicago-Philadelphia

AAA

This is an 8* play on the DODGERS

Two hot teams meet in this NLDS as the Dodgers have won nine straght and the Nationals have won seven straight. Washington got here thanks to a fielding gaffe by Milwaukee's right fielder in the bottom of the eighth Tuesday night. That one error allowed three runs to score and the Nats to prevail 4-3 in the Wild Card Game. Thankfully, we had the Brewers on the run line (+1.5). We'll look to fade Washington again tonight as it'll take a lot more than an error to get by the juggernaut that is the Dodgers. Consider this: LA is 59-22 at home this year. They are the clear favorites to win the NL pennant as they have by far the best pitching in the game today. They led the NL in ERA at home, on the road and overall. They also have best defensive efficiency of any team. They also scored more runs than every other National League team. Really, there isn't a single category where this team isn't the best. They don't even feel the need to go with Clayton Kershaw in Game 1 as it'll be Walker Buehler instead. That's fine by us as the Dodgers won 20 of Buehler's 30 starts in the regular season. He has a 2.86 ERA and 0.88 WHIP at home this year. His ERA in two starts vs. the Nationals was 2.92. Pat Corbin will be the Game 1 starter for Washington, not a bad option, but he's facing the superior lineup. Corbin's numbers noticeably rose on the road and that left him with an 8-9 team start record in those starts. Play on LA DODGERS

AAA

This is a 10* on LOS ANGELES

One bad loss to the Buccaneers and everyone seems to have 'jumped ship' when it comes to last year's Super Bowl runner-up. But the Rams still put up over 500 total yards of offense last week and were unbeaten entering the game. They had 36 first downs. Jared Goff hasn't looked great, but he'll be facing a Seattle defense that's largely gone untested in the first quarter of the season, thanks to facing a slew of subpar quarterbacks. The look ahead line for this game had the Rams favored, so there's definitely been a swing in perception. We will look to take advantage of that. The Seahawks are 0-2 ATS at home so far as they barely beat the Bengals and lost to the Brees-less Saints. Besides beating the winless Bengals, their other wins have been against the Steelers and Cardinals. Those three teams are a combined 1-10-1 with the only win occurring because the Steelers played the Bengals Monday night. Remember Seattle was the fortunate opponent of Pittsburgh when Ben Roethlisberger got hurt. This will be the first time the Rams have been an underdog in a regular season game since 2017. They've won 16 of the last 19 road games. Play on LOS ANGELES 

AAA

This is a 10* play on SOUTH ALABAMA

South Alabama is just trying to stay competitive, let alone win a game at this point. The Jaguars are 1-4 with all four losses being by double digits. The only team they beat (Jackson State) is a FCS school. But you can say the same exact thing about Thursday's opponent, Georgia Southern. The Eagles only win was against Maine and that was by just eight points. Otherwise, they are 0-3 against FBS competition. One of those losses was close. Minnesota beat them 35-32 three weeks ago, but in that game GSU gained less than 200 total yards of offense. They gained less than 100 yds of total offense in a 55-3 loss to LSU. Now those are big time schools they were facing. But at home last week, the Eagles lost 37-24 to Louisiana and that was after a bye. With these kind of paltry offensive numbers, Georgia Southern should not be laying this many points in a road game, even if it is against a team perceived to be as bad as South Alabama is right now. Our call is that the Jaguars figure it out enough to at the very least keep this one competitive. Back in the season opener, they were able to stay within 14 points of Nebraska, in Lincoln. Certainly then, they should be able to stay within double digits of a conference opponent, at home? Play SOUTH ALABAMA

AAA

This is a 7* play on TAMPA BAY

Tampa Bay turned in arguably the most dominant regular season ever last year, outscoring opponents by 103 goals and finishing with 125 points. But none of that mattered come playoff time when they were shockingly ousted in the 1st round by Columbus. It's not just that they lost the series either. They got swept! So we expect the Lightning to strike fast here in 2019-2020 and that means two points tonight at the expense of their Floridian rivals, the Panthers. Florida did not make the playoffs last year and should be considered a fringe contender to do so this year. As you may have guessed, the Lightning have dominated this in-state "rivalry." They won all four games last year and have taken seven of the eight meetings over the past two seasons, including all of them at home. The Panthers weren't exactly a good road team either last year as their record was 16-26 away from home. This is a good early season price to take on the Lightning as lines are still soft. Our guess is that a month from now, they'd be -200 or so on the money line against the Panthers. The Lightning were 32-7-2 in regular season home games last year. They won't be losing tonight. Play on TAMPA BAY

AAA

This is a 10* play on the OVER

Division winners Atlanta and St. Louis meet in this National League Division Series. This will be their first time playing since May. There were two series between them that took place that month. The Braves took two of three in both. They've got the homefield advantage, which seems important given that virtually every Cardinals starter seems to perform substantially worse on the road. That's something we'll definitely be tracking in this series. Miles Mikolas is the Game 1 starter for St. Louis. He went just 4-8 in 17 road starts during the regular season, posting a 5.40 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. So that you can compare, he has a 3.01 ERA and 1.05 WHIP at home. The one time Mikolas faced the Braves this year, it was at home. He allowed three runs and seven hits, so it's reasonable to expect him to give up more Thursday. Atlanta is going with Dallas Keuchel as its Game 1 starter. While Keuchel's last five starts have all stayed Under, he certainly hasn't pitched well in two of the previous three. In fact, the Braves have lost Keuchel's last three starts with him posting a 6.19 ERA and 1.75 WHIP. There are some questions about how well the St. Louis offense will perform in a postseason environment, but the Over is 7-1 their last 8 playoff games. They have also gone Over 41 of the last 65 times they've faced a left-handed starter. The Braves are one of the highest scoring teams in the National League. The Over is 6-1 the last seven times they've hosted St. Louis. Play OVER St. Louis-Atlanta

AAA

This is a 10* play on the UNDER

Two teams expected to compete for first place in the Pacific meet Wednesday night in Sin City as the Golden Knights host the Sharks. By the end of the regular season last year, both were caught looking up at the Flames in the standings. That set up a 1st round playoff matchup, which went to a Game 7 and saw the Sharks ultimately prevail. They haven't forgotten that series in Las Vegas as the Knights dropped both Games 6 & 7 in overtime with Game 6 going to 2 OT's. So even though this is just the first game of the season, there will be some major revenge on the mind. Interestingly, five of the seven games in that playoff series saw at least seven total goals scored. That's a lot of scoring, especially for playoff hockey. We don't think the skaters will be nearly as prolific to start the season. Vegas was among the league's best (3rd overall) in terms of giving up goals at home, allowing only 2.41 per game. Note that the two games in last year's playoff series that did not go Over both took place here. San Jose is a different team this year with Joe Pavelski gone. But their save percentage (.889 last year) can only go up. Play UNDER San Jose-Vegas

AAA

This is an 8* Play on ST. LOUIS

We like the Blues on Opening Night to win a battle of the last two Stanley Cup Champions. In case you forgot, it was St. Louis hoisting the Cup last June for the first time in franchise history, thus completing one of the most remarkable in-season turnarounds that we have ever seen - in any sport. Right after the New Year, the Blues had the fewest points in the league. They wound up winning it all. A big reason for that stunning turn of events was the play of rookie netminder Jordan Binnington. Now it's a full season of Binnington between the pipes in St. Louis. So we expect there to be little to no drop off for this team this year. For Washington, it very much feels like the 2019-20 season is going to be their last run at a Cup. Alex Ovechkin is under contract for the next two seasons, but both Nicklas Backstrom and goalie Braden Holtby are set to become free agents next summer. In this same position last year, the Capitals delivered a 7-0 win against the Bruins as it was them playing at home watching a banner getting raise. The proverbial skate is on the other foot this time. The Caps have failed to win the last six times they've been ML underdogs. St. Louis won 20 of its last 29 home games to end last season. They start this year with two points. Play on ST. LOUIS

AAA

This is a 9* on OAKLAND

This year's AL Wild Card Game features two franchises not exactly known for being deep in the pocketbooks, but the A's and Rays are both rich in pitching and most are going to expect a low-scoring game here. Oakland really surged in the second half as it won 97 games for the second consecutive season. They were just 37-36 on June 16th, but have gone 60-29 ever since. That's impressive. Starting this winner-take-all game for them will be Sean Manaea, an excellent choice in our opinion. Manaea is undefeated since returning from shoulder surgery, going 4-0 with a 1.21 ERA in five games. He has 30 strikeouts in 29 1/3 innings while giving up only four runs and 16 hits. He's walked only seven batters, so you're looking at a 0.78 WHIP as well. Tampa Bay scored the fewest runs of any American League playoff team, so it's a good matchup here for the Athletics, who get the game at home as well. They were 52-29 at home in the regular season. Three teams had more home victories than the A's - the Dodgers, Houston and the Yankees. It's interesting that there were only five games in which TB was a road dog of +125 to +175. They had a losing record in those games. Charlie Morton starts here for the Rays and he's actually been one of the more consistent starters in the AL. But his WHIP is noticeably higher on the road. The bullpens are going to play a role here, but we just don't know where the runs are going to come from for the Rays. Play on OAKLAND

AAA

This is a 9* on MILWAUKEE +1.5 (RUN LINE)

The Brewers season appeared to be over when MVP candidate Christian Yelich fouled a ball off his knee. But instead of folding, the team surged in Yelich's absence, going 22-10 the final 32 games and earning this Wild Card berth (almost won the division). It's not always pretty with Milwaukee, but they do have one massive edge over Washington and that's the bullpen. The Nationals not only possess the worst bullpen of the 10 playoff teams this year, in terms of ERA they have one of the five worst pens in the last 21 seasons! It should be noted that the other four teams in the bottom five averaged 99 losses in their respective seasons. Milwaukee, on the other hand, won because of their bullpen not in spite of it.  In September, the Brewers turned in a 3.01 ERA, right at the top of all of baseball. As the decided favorite Tuesday, Washington is under a lot of pressure and this is a franchise that has often come up small in the postseason. If the Brewers can get an early lead, they can turn to the bullpen, which has been so dominant, to stay ahead. History suggests that starter Brandon Woodruff won't go long here. But if he can help get his team an early lead, they're golden. It's not like Woodruff isn't the right option to start here either. The team won 18 of the 22 games he started this year! The Nationals are going with Max Scherzer and while that seemingly gives them an edge, they were basically a coinflip proposition with him on the mound this year, going 14-13 in his 27 starts. They were 6-9 in his 15 home starts. Scherzer also struggled a bit down the stretch with a 6.11 ERA his last three starts. We can easily see Milwaukee winning this game, or if they lose it'll be by just one run. Take the run line and if the Brewers do win, don't be surprised if it's because of the bullpen. Play MILWAUKEE on the RUN LINE (+1.5)

AAA

This is a 10* play on the OVER

Neither team playing Monday night has done much of the way in scoring in 2019 and neither has done any kind of winning. The Bengals and Steelers both come in at 0-3 with the former averaging only 18.0 points/game while the latter is at just 16.3. The Steelers have the obvious excuse of not having Ben Roethlisberger, but they still put up 20 last week in a loss to San Francisco with Mason Rudolph at quarterback. While the Roethlisberger injury definitely altered our outlook on the Steelers season, more concerning in the interim is how poorly the defense has played. They've given up 28.3 points/game so far and could have given up a lot more than 24 last week were it not for the 49ers turning the ball over so much. Three of San Francisco's five turnovers came inside the red zone. So it definitely could have - and should have - been a lot worse for Pittsburgh last week. They allowed 446 total yards to the Niners. On the year, the Steelers are allowing 443 yards/game. The Bengals defense knows what it's like to be shredded by the 49ers as well. They gave up 572 total yards to them in 41-17 loss back in Week 2. On the bright side, Andy Dalton is actually averaging over 300 yards passing per game. The Over is 5-2 the Steelers last seven games on Monday Night Football and 7-2-1 in the Bengals last 10 division games. While the offenses have been struggling, this one could easily turn into a shootout with two struggling defenses that can't stop anybody. Play OVER Cincinnati-Pittsburgh

AAA

This is an 8* play on OVER

The competition has not been fierce, but the Cowboys have looked good so far. They are 3-0 and averaging 32.3 points per game. Kellen Moore is doing a very good job as the new offensive coordinator, QB Dak Prescott is playing as well as anyone in the league right now and RB Ezekiel Elliot hasn't skipped a beat. New Orleans will be the Cowboys toughest opponent yet, but of course the Saints are without Drew Brees. These teams played a Thursday night game last season and the Cowboys won 13-10. Expect this tussle to feature a lot more scoring. It took touchdowns from both the defense and special teams to get New Orleans to 33 points last week as they pulled the upset in Seattle. But now they are playing in the Superdome. We expect Teddy Bridgewater to play well here. The Over is 8-3 in the Saints last 11 September games. It's also cashed in the last five conference games for Dallas. The Saints defense, which isn't as good as it was last year, did just give up over 500 yards to Seattle. The only offenses Dallas has faced are the Giants (with Eli Manning), the Redskins and the Dolphins. So it wouldn't be fair to call them "good" just yet. The Saints always put up points at home. This time Dallas should be able to match them. Play OVER Dallas-New Orleans

AAA

This is an 8* play on SEATTLE

The Seahawks starting 2-0 was a little surprising, but probably less so compared to last week's home loss. Seattle had to like its chances going into last week as they were facing a Saints team without Drew Brees. Unfortunately, the joke was on them as they lost 33-27 despite almost a 2 to 1 edge in total yards (515 to 265). The problem was allowing the Saints to score two non-offensive touchdowns, one on a punt return and the other a fumble return. We like the Seahawks to bounce back from that defeat as they play Arizona this week. The Cardinals haven't won, but they did tie, with the primary problem being they always fall behind in games. Last week they lost 38-20 at home to a Carolina team that didn't have Cam Newton. Kyler Murray is running for his life as he's been sacked more times (16) than all but one other quarterback. He hasn't faced a ton of blitzes but is dropping back to pass at a very high rate with 137 attempts in three games. On defense, Arizona is missing both of its starting corners. Tough to really like anything about the Cardinals right now. Seattle is 5-0-1 in its past six trips to the desert. They should win this one handily after putting up so many yards last week. Play on SEATTLE

AAA

This is an 8* play on the UNDER

We like the Seattle-Arizona game to go Under too. Sure, we talked a good bit about the Seahawks putting up a lot of yards last week and the Cardinals defense being down both of its starting corners. But Seattle can't score enough to send this one over by itself. Their defense played better against the Saints than the final score indicated. We went through this in the analysis on the side. But New Orleans scored two non-offensive touchdowns. Arizona did give up 4 TD passes to Kyle Allen last week, but should play better this week. The offense hasn't scored more than 24 in regulation this year and their total points would look a lot worse if not for the 4th quarter comeback they had vs. the Lions. The Under is 21-9 in Arizona's last 30 home games. It is also 11-5 the last 16 times Seattle gave up 30 or more points in its last game. Play UNDER Seattle-Arizona

AAA

This is a 10* on CINCINNATI

The Reds may not have improved to the level they desired for 2019, but this is a team on the rise. Expect them to be a trendy “sleeper” for 2020. The pitching staff is good as only three teams in the National League have allowed less runs. They probably do need to add a “bat” in the offseason as they scored the 4th fewest runs among NL clubs and were last in the division in that regard. But they did win 4-2 on Saturday, beating a Pirates team whose future outlook is nowhere near as bright. Pittsburgh fell to last in the Central this year and probably will be there again at this time next year. Nothing is on the line Sunday at PNC Park (except pride) and although yesterday was their first win in nine tries here this season, we expect Cincinnati to be the ones to close out the season with a win. Does starter Tyler Mahle have the most inspiring numbers? Hardly. But, even though Trevor Bauer was originally going to start this game, there is a reason that the Reds are still favored today. It’s a simple one. They are the better TEAM. Trevor Williams, who starts for Pittsburgh today, can’t be trusted. He has a 5.58 ERA and 1.44 WHIP this season and those numbers have been even worse the last seven starts. Williams has allowed 4 HRs in his last two starts as well. Reds end the year on a high note.

AAA

This is a 10* on NEW YORK

With the New York media tripping all over itself in an effort to fawn over rookie Daniel Jones, one might think this could be an ideal spot to fade the public sentiment and go against the Giants. Especially now, since RB Saquon Barkley is going to miss several games. With Barkley relegated to a spectator on the bench, Jones (in his 1st career start) led the Giants to an improbable come from behind 32-31 victory over the Buccaneers last week. But if there's a team (besides Miami) that the Giants deserve to be favored over in this spot, it's Washington. The Redskins are on a short week after a diastrous effort Monday night left them at 0-3. At home, they trailed the Bears 28-3 at the half and eventually lost 31-15. Washington is a complete mess right now. QB Keenum sprained his foot in the loss Monday night. He's expected to play, but backup Colt McCoy is hurt too. That could leave the Redskins own rookie, Dwayne Haskins, as the only option. But according to most, he's not ready to be a NFL starter yet. The same could be said for most players on the Redskins defense right now. They've given up at least 31 points in every game. So Jones should have another big game. Washington has won just 3 of its last 14 NFC East games. They are just 3-8 their last 11 visits to the Giants, getting outscored by 65 points in those games. They are a mess while the G-Men finally have some momentum. Not only should the Giants be favored, they'll cover. Play on NY GIANTS

AAA

This is a 10* play on NEW ENGLAND

The Patriots and Bills are both 3-0, but don't expect this early season showdown to necessarily be a playoff preview. Buffalo has beaten the Jets, Giants and Bengals so far. You definitely won't be seeing any of those teams in the postseason. Then again, the same could be said for New England's first three opponents, which includes Miami. Last week saw the Patriots play the Jets and while the final score was 30-14, it easily could have been 30-0. The New England defense has still not allowed a touchdown this year as the Jets two scores came from special teams and defense. Through three games, the Patriots have outscored teams by 89 points. The Bills have outscored opponents by just 19 points. That's why New England remains such a sizable road favorite in this spot. That and the fact they have dominated this AFC East rivalry, winning 42 of the 58 meetings since Tom Brady came onto the scene in 2001. They've also taken the last five meetings, winning all of them by at least 12 points. Josh Allen is just starting his second year as the Bills QB. He makes a lot of errors. New England has won 17 straight times when facing a first or second year starting QB. Prior to last week's win over Cincinnati, the Bills had been 0-4 SU and ATS when off two straight wins. They didn't cover against the Bengals, a winless team mind you, and almost lost the game. Again, the Patriots have allowed 17 points in three games. Play on NEW ENGLAND

AAA

This is an 8* play on UTAH

Both Washington State and Utah suffered crushing defeats last week. Utah's came first and was not all that out of the ordinary. It's the kind of upset we see at least once a week. While having a 27-16 edge in first downs over your opponent and still losing is disappointing, there's no shame in losing to USC at the Coliseum. In fact, it's been over 100 years since Utah last won there. One thing is for certain and that's it won't be another 100 years until they finally win at the Coliseum. What happened to Washington State late Saturday though was something you'll rarely, if ever, see again. Despite 63 points, 750 yards of total offense and NINE touchdown passes from QB Gordon, the Cougars LOST to UCLA - at home. They blew a 32-point lead in the second half in what was the third largest comeback (in terms of point margin) in NCAA history. Washington State was the first team to allow 50 points in a second half in 15 seasons. Only one team can bounce back from these two horrible defeats. We think it will be Utah and that they'll cover the spread to boot. The Utes have lost four in a row to Wazzu - by an average of 6 points/game. But this year's team is better irregardless of what we saw last Friday night in LA.  And they are still the better team here even if RB Moss can't suit up. Washington State was a pointspread juggernaut last season, but has now failed to cover three straight games. Playing on the road after allowing 50 points in 19 minutes is hardly ideal. Lay it! Play on UTAH

AAA

This is an 8* on FLORIDA STATE

It took four tries, but Florida State finally looked impressive for an entire game in 2019. They jumped on Louisville last week, racing out to a 21-0 lead by the end of the first quarter. They held on to win 35-24 and cover as a 6.5-point favorites. Of course, starting well hasn't actually been an issue this year for the Seminoles. They led Boise State 31-13 (lost 36-31), UL Monroe 21-0 (won 45-44) and Virginia 24-17 (lost 31-24). They easily could be 4-0 and the narrative surrounding the program and coach Taggart would certainly be a whole lot different, wouldn't it? We're going to call for the turnaround to continue this week, facing North Carolina State, who is a suspect 3-1 team. They've beaten East Carolina, Western Carolina and Ball State. But the only time they've ventured off campus, they were beaten 44-27 by West Virginia, a game they were actually expected to win by seven. The Wolfpack are only 1-5 ATS their last six road games and 1-7 ATS following a straight up win. The home team has won this game 9 of the past 13 times. Florida State has big-time revenge after losing 47-28 in Raleigh. Play on FLORIDA STATE 

AAA

This is a 8* play on KANSAS STATE

Under normal circumstances, this would set up as a very even affair between two teams looking to move up the Big 12 pecking order. But the circumstances are not normal this week in Stillwater as Oklahoma State is off a tough loss (to Texas) and visiting Kansas State is off a bye. The latter certainly seems to be underrated right now. Kansas State has already beaten Mississippi State on the road and is 3-0 ATS. Oklahoma State not only lost in Austin last week, they also struggled (for a half) in Tulsa the week before. The underdog brings the better defense, giving up 12.7 points/game to OSU's 26.8. Also, the Wildcats are 7-3 ATS as underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points while the Cowboys are 2-7 ATS as favorites of -3.5 to -10 with five outright losses. Kansas State is also 11-4 ATS as a single digit road underdog since 2016.  Though the home team has won 13 of the previous 16 meetings, Kansas State has won the last two - as a 20-point underdog and as an eight-point underdog. It may say something that the unranked team (Oklahoma State) is favored here, but they are at home. Or it may mean the oddsmakers simply haven't caught onto the fact that Kansas State is a lot better than expected for first year coach Chris Kleiman, who built an empire at the FCS level with North Dakota State and is translating well (so far) to the FBS level. Play on KANSAS STATE

AAA

This is a 10* play on PHILADELPHIA

It took awhile, but the Phillies snapped their six-game losing streak last night by beating the Marlins 5-4 in 15 innings. That result is something we'd called for as Philadelphia came into Friday below .500 for the first time all season. We made the case that Miami is an ideal opponent for them to wrap the year up against and that mindset hasn't changed in the last 24 hours. The Marlins are the NL's worst team in just about every department as they are 56-104 and have been outscored by 188 runs. The Phillies at least have the motivation of trying to finish above .500 for the year, which they can do by winning the final two games. After a 15-inning loss, Miami is hardly likely to come back with a strong effort on the road. Starter Caleb Smith pitched well in two previous starts vs. the Phillies this year, but both were all the way back in April. Recently, Smith has struggled with a 6.28 ERA and 1.47 WHIP his last seven starts. He's also struggled most of the year on the road. So have the Marlins as a team as their record away from home is now 26-53 including 9-24 as an underdog of +125 to +175. The Phillies Zach Eflin should have a solid start tonight. Prior to getting beat up by Washington on Monday, Eflin hadn't allowed more than 3 ER in six straight starts. The Phillies are 24-14 this season as home favorites of -125 to -175 and 48-28 in that role since 2017. Play on PHILADELPHIA

AAA

This is a 10* play on OVER Virginia-Notre Dame

After suffering a tough loss to Georgia last Saturday night, Notre Dame should resume scoring in bunches against a Virginia team that comes in ranked a highly questionable 18th overall. The Fighting Irish scored 101 points in their first two games including 66 in the only one played so far in South Bend. They were held to 17 by Georgia, but that's an elite defense they were facing there. Virginia certainly doesn't have a bad defense as they've yet to allow more than 24 points in a 4-0 start. But this number is too low based on what we see for most Notre Dame games. Even against Georgia, the total was 58. Virginia has scored at least 28 points in every game, so it may take a big number from Notre Dame to win this one comfortably, let alone win it at all. The Over is 7-3 in Virginia's last 10 non-conference games. Last week's vs. Old Dominion featured a slow start, but once the Cavaliers offense got going, it wasn't going to be denied. The Over is also 6-1 the last seven times Virginia has played on the road against a team with a winning home record. Notre Dame isn't about to score 66 again this week, like they did two weeks ago vs. New Mexico. But they should score plenty as they look to bounce back from the loss to Georgia. Virginia won't go quietly though. Play OVER Virginia-Notre Dame

AAA

This is a 10* on MIAMI (OH)

Miami of Ohio did not fare well in the non-conference portion of the schedule, winning just one of four games and that one victory came against a FCS opponent. But the three losses were to: Iowa, Cincinnati and Ohio State, all games where they were an underdog of at least 17 points. So really, we can't say we're all that surprised to see the RedHawks coming into Saturday with a 1-3 record. But what we are surprised about is that Buffalo beat Temple last week, 38-22, as a two-touchdown underdog. Over was our call in that game, but we certainly didn't expect the Bulls to win it on field. Then again, the week before they lost at Liberty as a 5.5-point favorite. Because most of the country saw Miami lose 76-5 to Ohio State last week, there certainly won't be a rush to bet the RedHawks this week. But we love the spot. Over its last 22 MAC games, Miami is actually 16-6 straight up AND against the spread. Buffalo has not played nearly the kind of schedule that Miami has and averaged just 15 points in two road games. Miami has gotten to play just once at home and scored 48 on Tennessee Tech. Buffalo had only 279 total yards of offense last week, but Temple turned it over four times, so that's how the Bulls won that one. One touchdown came from the defense and two more came on drives that started in the red zone. Miami will take better care of the football and win this one. Play MIAMI OH

AAA

This is a 10* play on HAMILTON

We still have several weeks left in the CFL regular season, but three teams have already clinched playoff spots and these are two of them. Winnipeg is tied with Calgary a top the Western Division with matching 9-4 records. Hamilton is 10-3 and is running away from the rest of the East. The last time these division leaders met was Week 7. The Blue Bombers entered that game undefeated (5-0), but the Ti-Cats dealt them their first defeat, 23-15 as a 1-pt home dog. Hamilton won that game despite losing QB Jeremiah Masoli in the first quarter. Simple math reveals that Winnipeg has gone just 4-4 its last eight games, but three of the losses have come by a total of four points. The Ti-Cats are the only team to beat them by more than a two-point margin all year. One of those Winnipeg losses came last week, 38-37 at Montreal, as they blew a 24-point lead. Interestingly, Hamilton's three losses this year have been by a total of 13 points. So we have every reason to expect a close one here, which makes taking the points logical. Both teams have had to turn to backup quarterbacks this year with the starters injured, so it's impressive that they are still leading their respective divisions. But Dane Evans (Hamilton) seems to have played better than Chris Streveler (Winnipeg). Streveler is a much different type QB than Matt Nichols. The Bombers are undefeated at home, but the Ti-Cats have the best inter-division record in the league. Gotta take the points in this one. Play on HAMILTON 

AAA

This is a 10* play on the UNDER

After two games, the Maryland hype train was in full effect. They'd put up 142 points in a pair of wins, one of them 63-20 over Syracuse. But that hype train then got stuck in the station in a 20-17 road loss to Temple two weeks ago. We'll now get to see how Mike Locksley gets his team to perform off a loss. The Terrapins will face a Penn State squad that had its own impressive first two weeks on offense before playing a game vs. Pitt that they easily could have lost. They only beat the Panthers 17-10 and that came on the heels of a lackluster first half the week prior against Buffalo. The Nittany Lions have destroyed the Terps each of the last two years, outscoring them 104 to 6. No you didn't read that incorrectly. We think the last game for each team showed that neither offense is invincible here. We're not going to be seeing the video game-like numbers from the first two weeks. Both defenses might be underrated as Penn State has given up only 30 total points in three games while Maryland has given up just 40. The Terps last four Friday games have all stayed Under. Play UNDER Penn State-Maryland

AAA

This is an 8* play on PHILADELPHIA

Philadelphia wraps up a very disappointing season this weekend at home. This was supposed to be a playoff year after they went out and signed Bryce Harper. But instead, they'll finish with a very similar record to 2018. In fact, they are actually now a game below .500 (79-80), thanks to a six-game losing streak which is their second longest all season. But at least they get to face Miami to end the year. The Marlins are one of four 100+ loss teams in baseball and the only one in the National League. They have been out of contention from the start and no one has disputed that it's they who have been the NL's worst all year long. Vince Velasquez goes tonight for Philly. His team start record is 12-10. That included four wins in a row prior to him losing in Cleveland on Sunday. We actually went against him in that start, noting how he might "cool off." But three of the four runs he allowed in that game were unearned. Pablo Lopez has a 7-13 TSR for the Marlins with five of those losses coming in his last six outings. The only exception was his last start. But that was at home. On the road, you're looking at a 2-7 TSR and a 7.27 ERA. Play on PHILADELPHIA

AAA

This is a 10* play on the UNDER

Two NL Central teams conclude their seasons in PNC Park this weekend as the Pirates host the Reds. While these are the final games for both sides, they probably feel very different about their respective 2019 seasons. The Reds appear to be a team on the rise, with some strong pitching, as they're going to NOT lose 90+ games for the 1st time since 2014. That said, they've lost the last four games. Pittsburgh has fallen hard this year as they've lost 91 games and will finish last in the division. Their future outlook seems a lot more bleak, though they did just shockingly sweep the Cubs here at home in their last series. The Pirates often do allow a lot of runs, but Cincinnati comes in having scored just 30 in its last 12 contests. For the season, the Reds are bottom six in baseball in runs scored. But they are top eight in runs allowed. Something will have to give with the top Over team (Pittsburgh) facing the top Under team (Cincinnati). Reds starter DeSclafani has a 1.89 ERA and 0.58 WHIP his previous three starts, so that's fairly "on brand." We'll hope that Pirates starter Brault can improve upon his recent efforts thanks to facing a team he held scoreless back in May. Brault does tend to pitch better at home. Play UNDER Cincinnati-Pittsburgh

AAA

This is a 10* Play on VA TECH

While you may not yet be sold on Virginia Tech this year, don't be surprised if Friday in Blacksburg proves to be the Hokies "coming out party." They turned it over five times in their only loss, which was on the road. But they have won 15 of the last 21 games at Lane Stadium. With 10 starters back from last year, the defense should be solid in Bud Foster's final season as coordinator. This team won 19 games in Justin Fuente's first two years. They dropped to six wins in 2018, but that included one over a Duke team that had a future NFL starting quarterback in Daniel Jones. The game was in Durham and not close as VT won 31-14 as a three-point dog. The Blue Devils aren't as good this year despite easily defeating their last two opponents. (They lost 42-3 to Alabama in the opener). Virginia Tech has won 16 of the last 18 meetings overall including three straight. The last two wins have been by a combined 38 points. The Hokies have covered their last five Friday night games. Play on VIRGINIA TECH

AAA

This is a 10* play on PHILADELPHIA

The Eagles are 1-2, not to mention a banged up football team right now. Down both starting receivers last week, they lost at home to the Lions 27-24. But as you can see from that score, offense wasn't really the problem. Even with DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery out, the Eagles had more first downs than the Lions did and outgained them on the day. The problems were special teams and turnovers. Detroit returned a kickoff for a TD early in the game and would not have won without it. Philly also fumbled twice and both times it led to a Lions field goal. Then there was the Eagles failure to take advantage of a Lions special teams miscue. Late in the game, they blocked a Matt Prater field goal attempt. Despite starting at midfield, Carson Wentz and the Eagles offense could not move the ball into scoring position, instead turning it over on downs. Jeffery is expected back this week as is TE Dallas Goebert, who was limited to just nine snaps against the Lions. Green Bay is a perfect 3-0 straight up and against the spread, but a little lucky to be in this position considering they have been outgained in every game. Key for them is being +6 in turnovers as the defense has been much better than expected. But we don't see the Pack covering for a third straight time as home favorites. As an underdog, the Eagles are 9-4 ATS the last two seasons with eight outright victories. We'll take the points. Play on PHILADELPHIA

AAA

This is a 10* play on MEMPHIS

Memphis quickly established itself as the potential "Group of 5" team to get a New Year's Day Bowl slot when they beat Ole Miss in Week 1. The Tigers are now 3-0 and surprisingly it's been the defensive side of the ball that's been more impressive. Sure, the offense scored a combined 97 points against Southern and South Alabama the last two games. But the defense has given up only 40 points all year, thereby reducing the total PPG scored in Memphis' games to just under 51, which is down from 75 a year ago. This Thursday they welcome in Navy for a key AAC West showdown. Navy has played only two games, both against lesser competition (Holy Cross, East Carolina). As you would expect, the Midshipmen didn't struggle to win either game. They beat Holy Cross by 38 and ECU by 32. After a down year last season (finished 3-10 SU!), Navy is back to running the ball effectively as they're averaging 371 yards/game on the ground. But we look for them to get slowed down here by this vastly improved Memphis defense. This group held Ole Miss, an SEC team, to 10 points and 173 yards. The most yards gained by any Memphis opponent so far is 258 and that was, surprisingly, Southern. But even there, the Tigers defense performed better than you think. Southern gained 58 yards on its first two snaps, than only 200 the rest of the game on 3.6 yards per play. Southern also scored a defensive TD in that game. While conference play will ultimately determine if this Memphis' D is the "real deal" or not, we think it is and the Tigers closed last year by covering six of their last seven games against American opposition. They are simply the much better team here. Play on MEMPHIS

AAA

This is a 10* play on the GIANTS

This has been a tightly contested series thus far. Colorado won Tuesday's game 8-5, but not before the teams combined to use a MLB-record 25 different pitchers in a 16-inning affair. Then last night, the Giants gained a measure of revenge by winning in walkoff fashion, 2-1. For Colorado, a team with nothing to play for, it'll be tough to come back with today's game taking place in the afternoon. It's not like the Rockies are a good road team either. They're actually quite horrible as last night's loss dropped them to 28-52 away from Coors Field. Kyle Freeland gets the start for them here and he hasn't been effective all year. He's 3-11 in 21 starts with a 6.84 ERA and 1.59 WHIP. He'd missed about a month before returning last Friday and pitching just two innings against the Dodgers. While the team has won two of his three starts against San Francisco this year, we can't say that Freeland has been all that effective in them. It's pretty crazy to think that Colorado made the playoffs last year. They very well could end up having the biggest drop in wins (of any team) this year. The Giants are also out of it, but they're playing for manager Bruce Bochy this week as he's set to retire. Thursday starter Tyler Beede has had a pretty good September with a 3.80 ERA in four starts. It was looking even better before he ran into a good Atlanta team last weekend. But the Rockies don't hit like the Braves. Not on the road at least. They are 28th in runs scored on the road, ahead of only Detroit and Miami. They are also last in team batting average (.230) and 29th (next to last) in OPS at .679. Play on SAN FRANCISCO

AAA

This is a 6* play on OAKLAND

So it now looks like the A's will be going with Frankie Montas as the starter tonight. Originally, it was going to be Michael Fiers. Montas returns under the most auspicious of circumstances as he's coming off an 80-game suspension for violating MLB's drug policy. Perhaps the drugs were doing their job because Montas was 9-2 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.12 WHIP before getting caught. You hope the results don't go away as a result. Montas has faced the Angels three times this year and is 2-0. This is a really critical spot for him to step into as the A's lost last night, reducing their lead for the Wild Card to a half game over Tampa and one game over Cleveland. (Only two of those three teams make it). Fortunately, it may not matter how Montas performs tonight. Because if Andrew Heaney continues pitching the way he has of late for the Angels, Montas will have plenty of cushion. Heaney has given up six runs in back to back starts while allowing a total of five home runs. He's had some good stretches this year, but the only start against Oakland saw him give up five runs. Note that the A's have dropped two straight games now. The last time they lost three in a row was July. They rebound tonight. Play on OAKLAND

AAA

This is an 8* play on BOSTON

Anytime the Red Sox don't make the playoffs, the season is ultimately failure in Boston. So chalk up 2019 in the failure category as last year's World Series champs won't even be going back to the postseason this year. But most teams in the league would still love to be as good as Boston is. The Red Sox will likely still end up winning 85 games this year and they have a +75 run differential. That's a lot better than Texas, who is heading towards its third straight losing season. The Red Sox beat the Rangers yesterday, 12-10, in the opener of what is their final series on the road. Winning on the road hasn't been the problem for Boston this year. They are actually 45-34 in all road games. It's a losing record at Fenway Park that ultimately hurt them the most. The fact Boston won yesterday despite a rare bad start from Eduardo Rodriguez is good news. The Red Sox scored all 12 of their runs in the first five innings. They only homered once. This park in Arlington can be kind to hitters and the man starting for Texas tonight, Kolby Allard, knows that all too well as he sports a 7.36 ERA and 1.84 WHIP in three home starts. Rick Porcello is having a bad year for the Red Sox, but the veteran should be able to outpitch the rookie Allard here. Boston has won five of Porcello's last six starts on the road and they've also won the last five times he's gone against the Rangers. Play on BOSTON

AAA

This is a 10* play on the OVER

Could this end up being a FIVE-game sweep for the Nationals? (Series wraps up tomorrow) That's looking like more and more of a reality after sweeping yesterday's doubleheader with the Phillies. That result officiall put Washington into the playoffs while simultaneously eliminating Philadelphia. That's a huge motivational edge here as the Nationals try and lock down home field advantage for the NL Wild Card Game against whichever team (St. Louis or Milwaukee) doesn't win the Central Division. They currently have a one game edge over Milwaukee in that department entering Wednesday when they look to make it four straight over Philly. They've outscored the Phillies 17-8 in the three games so far and what makes this series result all the more sweeter is that it's come against former teammate Bryce Harper. Anibal Sanchez will get the call for tonight's game. While he's pitched well recently, Sanchez has struggled against the Phillies this year. He's faced them four times and is winless with a 4.22 ERA. The Over is 6-2 in Sanchez's last eight starts overall. Drew Smyly will start here for the Phillies, who are now lame ducks for the final six games. We don't see any reason why Smyly, who has a 5.89 ERA and 1.58 WHIP for two teams this season (Phillies & Pirates), would come up big in this situation. The Nationals already average 5.5 runs per game at home. Play on OVER Philadelphia-Washington

AAA

This is an 8* on the GIANTS

The Rockies and Giants are both playing out the string. But at least the Giants have some reason to celebrate as they honor departing manager Bruce Bochy, the longest active tenured skipper in the sport. They've also got Madison Bumgarner on the mound and that's a sizable advantage on the field.  It may not have been Bumgarner's best year and his recent results certainly haven't been up to par. But it's still been a decent year overall. Bumgarner has been especially good here at home where he is 6-2 and has a 2.72 ERA/0.92 WHIP. He's made 18 starts total here and the Giants have won 12 of them. The Rockies are not a good road team. Their record away from home is 27-51 and they score a lot less than at Coors Field. The drop is more than two full runs per game. It doesn't help having Jeff Hoffman and his 6.71 ERA/1.62 WHIP on the mound either. It's somewhat shocking how sharp the decline has been for the Rockies this year. It's a 24 win drop, these last six games nothwithstanding. If you're San Francisco, what's not to like about Bumgarner going against this team? Play on SAN FRANCISCO 

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

Minnesota is very likely to win the AL Central and go into the playoffs as the "3-seed" (would face either Yankees or Astros in LDS). Detroit has been nowhere near a playoff discussion this season and will soon be done playing games. They are 49.5 games behind the Twins. They have scored 339 fewer runs. No team in baseball has scored fewer runs. That leads us to playing the Under in this divisional matchup. The Tigers have averaged only 2.6 runs/game over the past week and gone five in a row without scoring more than three. That was before Sunday's 6-3 win over the White Sox. If they do have a chance of winning Tuesday, it'll be due to starter Spencer Turnbull. He has been one of the few reliable options in this rotation. Turnbull allowed only one run in his last start - with eight strikeouts and no walks - which ended up being a 2-1 loss in Cleveland. Unfortunately, Turnbull and the Tigers will face Jake Odorizzi. In 11 career starts vs. Detroit, Odorizzi is 5-1 with a 3.25 ERA. The Under is 12-3-1 in Odorizzi's past 16 starts overall including the last five on the road. The Under is also 5-1 in the Twins last six series openers. The Under is 6-1-1 the Tigers last eight games overall. Play UNDER Minnesota-Detroit

AAA

This is a 10* play on WASHINGTON

The Redskins will look to reverse the franchise's "curse" on Monday Night Football. Of all the things that have plagued this franchise in recent years, an 0-6 SU/ATS mark in the NFL's marquee primetime game is definitely one of them. This year, the team comes into its MNF appearance at 0-2 with a couple of division losses to Philadelphia and Dallas and in desperate need of a spark. Getting points against a Chicago team that struggles to score may be just what they need. The Bears are lucky not to be 0-2 themselves as they got a last second 50+ yard field goal to beat Denver 16-14 last week. That was after losing the season opener 10-3 to the rival Packers. After going 12-5 ATS last season (including playoff loss), the Bears are 0-2 ATS to start 2019. They were favored in both games. A second straight game as a road favorite seems dicey for a team with a struggling quarterback. Mitchell Trubisky has been very bad so far this year, ranking 32nd in both yards per pass attempt and passer rating. He's completing only 58.3% of his passes. As we saw in multiple games yesterday, 0-2 teams often show up in these situations and are good bets when taking points. Not sure if it means anything, but the Redskins have beaten the Bears seven straight times dating back to the 2003 season. They are 13-2 SU head to head since 1989. Play on WASHINGTON

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This is a 9* on TORONTO

We have a record-tying four 100+ loss teams in MLB this year, three of them hailing from the American League. The least surprising member of the quartet would have to be Baltimore, who we won't hesitate to buck here. The Orioles lost 115 games a season ago, so their 51 wins this year actually represent improvement from 2018. Yet there is no denying this remains one of the worst teams in baseball. Toronto has lost 93 games this year, but is actually significantly better than all the 100+ loss teams as well as some of the 90+ loss ones as well. At least if you go by run differential as the Blue Jays have only been outscored by 101 runs this year. That may sound like a lot, but there are actually eight teams across baseball with worse run differentials. Baltimore has been outscored by 264 runs, easily the second worst overall and only ahead of Detroit. For today's series opener, the Blue Jays start Clay Buchholz, who knows the Orioles quite well from spending all that time in Boston. Buchholz actually struggled agianst the O's last week, but the Jays won the game 11-10 and swept the series. Baltimore made an overnight pitching change here going from Dylan Bundy to Chandler Shepard, which is a downgrade based on Shepard's lone appearance, last week vs. the Blue Jays in which he gave up three runs in four innings. The Orioles did win on Sunday, but haven't won two straight since August. Play on TORONTO

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This is an 8* play on CLEVELAND

Doesn't seem like there's many takers on the Browns this week, but they look like the right side to us Sunday night. Take away one bad quarter against the Titans and this defense has played really well so far. While it's certainly a big step up facing Jared Goff and the Rams, they'll have a fired up crowd rooting them on as this is the first Sunday night game in Cleveland in 11 years. The Rams had a close win (3 points) over Carolina in Week 1, then knocked Drew Brees out last week, turning a game with the Saints into an noncompetitive affair. Believe it or not, the Browns offense is actually averaging more yards per play (6.3) than the Rams are (5.7) through two games. Cleveland is 4-1 ATS as a home dog since last year began. After being such a popular team with the public to start the year, the Browns don't seem to have much support this week. But we think that's the perfect time to take them as we can smell a potential upset in this one. Grab the points. Play on CLEVELAND

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This is a 10* play on CLEVELAND

It's going to be a busy night in Cleveland with both the Browns and Indians hosting big games. With all due respect to the Browns, who are hosting their 1st Sunday night game in 11 years, the Indians' game is much more important to the immediate future of the city. That's because with just seven games to go in the regular season, the Tribe finds itself one game out of the Wild Card. They lost yesterday (9-4 to the Phillies) while the Rays once again beat the Red Sox in extra innings. With only two series remaining after tonight, Cleveland simply cannot afford to fall two games back. They know the Rays next series is against the Yankees, so there's potential to make up some ground there. But first, it's time to handle their own business, which means beating a Phillies team that is basically out of contention at this point. The good news is Cleveland has gone 40-23 this year off a loss. More good news: their starter Adam Plutko has a 3-0 team start record his last three starts as he's allowed just two runs in each. Plutko also has a 0.91 WHIP at home. The team is 6-2 when he starts at Progressive Field. Phillies starter Velasquez may also have a 3-0 TSR in his last three starts, but a big difference is a 1.86 WHIP in them. So the Phillies have been awfully lucky to win those games. The fact that this is Cleveland's home finale adds to the motivation. The Phillies have a losing road record on the year and we can't see them winning two straight here. Play on CLEVELAND

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This is a 10* on TAMPA BAY

Obviously, the big story here is the Giants moving on from Eli Manning and going with rookie Daniel Jones as the starting quarterback. Does it even matter though? The Giants are a bad team that has beaten by double digits in both games. Also, have we forgotten just how divisive of a draft choice Jones was? Many respected minds thought he was a HUGE reach at #6 overall. Two good preseason performances aren't enough to sway us. Something else not helping the Giants case here is that Tampa Bay is on extra rest. The Buccaneers picked up their first win of the season last Thursday by going to Carolina and upsetting the Panthers. Unlike the Giants, the Bucs defense seems a lot better this year. Credit goes to new coordinator Todd Bowles. Tampa is allowing 1.5 yards less per play compared to last year. They've also given up only 31 points in two games. The Giants have scored just 31 points in two games. New York has also lost 13 of 17 road games and is just 1-8 SU in the month of September (2-7 ATS). This is the 6th time in 7 seasons they've started 0-2. Jones alone isn't enough to save this Giants team, if he is even capable of saving anything. One could argue that the Giants may not even be salvageable. Lay the points. Play on TAMPA BAY

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This is an 8* play on KANSAS CITY

We used both of these teams in Week 1. The Ravens crushed the Dolphins 59-10. The Chiefs had no problem beating the Jaguars 40-26. Both are now 2-0. This will be hyped as an early season showdown in the AFC with the winner probably deemed as the conference's top challenger to the Patriots. But there is a reason to still be a little skeptical of Baltimore. They have played two poor teams to get to 2-0. Obviously, Miami is the worst team in the league. Arizona, who they barely beat last week, isn't far ahead and has a rookie QB. Had the Cardinals not settled for three field goals inside the Ravens' five-yard line last week, they easily could have pulled the upset.  The Chiefs two victims, Jacksonville and Oakland, aren't exactly great either. But we know the Chiefs can beat the Ravens with Lamar Jackson. They did it last year. Now that took overtime, but they did win. We expect a larger margin of victory this year. Strangely, the Chiefs scored all four touchdowns last week in the second quarter. They scored 68 points in the first six quarters of the year before shockingly hanging a "goose egg" in the second half vs. the Raiders. But one positive was the defensive pitching a shutout in the final three quarters. They held the Raiders to 5.2 yards per pass attempt The Chiefs are on a 9-0 ATS run in September and 16-5-1 ATS in Week 3. This is their home opener. Play on KANSAS CITY

AAA

This is a 10* on the OVER

The Vikings and Raiders have combined to go Under in all four of their games so far. But we anticipate a bit higher scoring affair for them as they meet in Week 3. Minnesota had a very efficient 28 points in a Week 1 win over Atlanta. That was at home and they return to TCF Bank Stadium this week. They should have scored more than 16 last week, but Kirk Cousins threw a BAD interception against the Packers, basically costing his team the game. The Vikings offense actually averaged 7.0 yards per play in that game, but went 0 for 2 in the red zone and turned it over a total of four times. The defense was torched by Aaron Rodgers early, but then kept the team in the game as long as they could. While Minnesota's D didn't allow any points over the last 44 minutes, Oakland failed to score at all in the final three quarters last week vs. Kansas City. That after a 10-point fourth quarter and efficient Week 1 win (over Denver) of their own. Strangely, the Raiders defense allowed four touchdowns in the second quarter vs. the Chiefs, but no points at all in the other three quarters. They still allowed almost 7.0 yards/play though. The Raiders are 4-0 Over their last four games on field turf. Play OVER Oakland-Minnesota

AAA

This is an 8* play on NOTRE DAME

Notre Dame is taking on a top five opponent (Georgia) here and we know what happens when that's the case. The Fighting Irish, more often than not, fold like a cheap tent in this situation as they are 4-13 ATS. The last 19 times the Irish faced a top five foe that is outscoring its opponents by at least 20.6 points/game, they've lost 18 of those games. All but four of those 18 losses have been by double digits. Ten of them have come by at least 20 points. Four of the losses have come during the Brian Kelly regime and three were by two touchdowns or more. We all remember that CFP semifinal game last January against Clemson right? The Irish lost that 30-3. So the Irish might as well not even leave South Bend right? Wrong! Because of that poor reputation in these kind of games, this number is inflated this week. Notre Dame catching two touchdowns, even on the road, is a bargain as this spread should be no higher than 10 points in our estimation. Georgia will likely come in overconfident and struggle early. The Dawgs have yet to be tested this year and say what you will about Notre Dame, they're a whole heck of a lot better than Vanderbilt, Murray State and Arkansas State. The Irish have only played twice, so they're the fresher of the two teams. Two years ago, they lost by only a point in South Bend to UGA. It'll be another close one Saturday night. Play on NOTRE DAME

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This is a 10* play on ILLINOIS

Saturday night finds Illinois looking to do what Big 10 rival Nebraska did only a week ago. That being bounce back from an outright loss as a favorite. Two weeks ago, Nebraska suffered a shocking defeat at the hands of Colorado, 34-31 as a four-point favorite. The Cornhuskers came into 2019 with a ton of hype and that loss shattered it a bit as they blew a 17-point lead and lost in overtime. They did bounce back last week by trouncing Northern Illinois 44-8. They'll stay in the Land of Lincoln this week, moving from DeKalb to Champaign and open up conference play. Illinois lost last week to Eastern Michigan, 34-31 (sound familiar?) as a seven-point favorite here at home. The good news here is they don't have to win like Nebraska did last week. The Illini only need to cover and the oddsmakers have obliged with a generous spread that we've seen the public already bet up. This number shows us that the hype train is still moving a bit too fast with Nebraska. Can't say we're huge fans of what Lovie Smith has done here at Illinois, who has not been to a bowl since 2014. Smith has had a young team each of his first three seasons here, but this is easily his most experienced - and best - group yet. They should be highly motivated following last week's loss while Nebraska could be prone for another letdown. By the way, Scott Frost is 0-6 in road games as the 'Huskers coach. Play on ILLINOIS

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This is an 8* play on CLEVELAND

It seems as if none of the three teams in the AL Wild Card chase are ever going to lose. Oakland has won 9 of 10. Two games behind the A's, fighting for the final spot, are Cleveland and Tampa Bay. The Rays are 10-4 their last 14 games while the Indians (who we'll be playing here) have won 9 of 11. The Tribe's latest win came last night over the Phillies, 5-2, as they jumped on Drew Smyly early. Tonight, they are likely to do the same to Jason Vargas, who has struggled since making the jump from New York to Philly. Vargas' ERA and WHIP his last three starts are 6.35 and 1.50 respectively. No matter which team he was with, the road has always been a problem as his ERA is 5.06 there. Vargas has lasted just three innings his past two starts. Cleveland counters with Plesac, who just turned in a complete game shutout in his last trip to the mound. The team is 8-2 at home this year with him on the mound. While technically still alive for a Wild Card spot in the NL, the Phillies pretty much know their fate is sealed at this point as they are five games back. Truthfully, we never thought they'd get there anyway. An odd but perhaps useful trend here is that the Indians are a perfect 11-0 this season at home when the total is 10 or 10.5. The total opened at 10 and has since moved to 10.5 for this Interleague matchup. Play on CLEVELAND

AAA

This is an 8* play on STANFORD

Already with two losses, Stanford would seem to have its back against the wall here vs. Oregon, a game in which few, if any, will expect the Cardinal to win. The defenses in Palo Alto have usually been very solid under David Shaw, but the last two games have seen them shredded for 90 points as they've given up 45 to both USC and UCF. Now Oregon comes to town. Despite what many perceive as being a mismatch, Stanford has always given the Ducks fits and we expect that to be the case again this year. They are 5-2 the previous seven matchups and 0-3 the last three. While that run involves teams a lot more talented than this one, the same can be said for the Oregon side as well. Winning by double digits on the conference road is difficult. After two straight blowouts over Nevada and Montana, it's easy to see the Ducks coming into this one too overconfident. As for that Cardinals defense, they allowed just seven points in the lone home game, which was a win over Northwestern. After taking on two talented teams the past two weeks, the Cardinal will be more battle tested and prepared to give Oregon another fight to the end. Play on STANFORD

AAA

This is a 10* play on the OVER

Temple is going to have to guard against a letdown here as last week they upset a heavily hyped Maryland team, 20-17 as 5.5-point home dogs. That game set up pretty well for the Owls as they were off an open date. Now let's see how they perform having to play in consecutive weeks for the first time this season. While Temple has covered both of its games, Buffalo is 0-3 ATS. Two weeks ago, they actually led Penn State at the half, 10-7. Since then, it's been all downhill as they've been outscored 73-20. That includes a bad 35-17 loss at Liberty last week where the Bulls were favored by 5.5 points. We figured UB would struggle early on this year as they lost their starting QB and two receivers from last year. That they have with just 30 total points the last two games. But both were on the road. They actually gained 429 and 373 yards in those two games. So they've moved the ball. Back at home this week, they should start finding the end zone more. Temple's defense turned in a tremendous performance last week vs. Maryland, but that's the side of the ball where the letdown could take place. The Owls offense has averaged 561 yards/game so far. The Over is 10-4-1 in Buffalo's last 15 home games. Last year was a 36-29 win by Buffalo at Temple. Play OVER Temple-Buffalo

AAA

This is an 8* Play on MICHIGAN STATE

This is a rare situation where everyone is piling on the underdog. That's because, admittedly, Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald has been excellent in the role. His Wildcats teams have gone 13-4-1 ATS the last 18 times they've gotten points and won 10 of the game straight up. Last year alone, they were an amazing 7-1-1 ATS getting points and won six of the games straight up. One of those upsets came against Michigan State, 29-19 (+11). Yet despite all of what you just read, a curious thing has happened here and that's the line has moved up (by several points) even though the majority of bets have come in on the Wildcats. We trust Mark Dantonio, off a loss last week to Arizona State, to get the job done here in this revenge spot. His Spartans actually have triple revenge here as they've been upset by Northwestern each of the last three seasons. Northwestern can't do it again, can they? This Wildcats team is nowhere near as strong as the one that pulled the upset last year in East Lansing. This Michigan State team is also much stronger than the one that lost its last trip into Evanston two years ago. Sparty's defense should rule the day in this one as they've given up just 34 points in three games. Northwestern was off a bye last week when it beat UNLV 30-14. In the first game, they could score only 7 points in a loss at Stanford, which now looks even worse. The road team is 12-4 SU and 14-2 ATS the last 16 meetings. Play on MICHIGAN STATE

AAA

This is an 8* on BOISE STATE

Boise State is back in the top 20 of the polls, but doesn't feel like its getting the respect it deserves here vs. Air Force. This is a home game, remember. The Broncos are 59-7 SU their L66 games on the blue turf. Maybe the win over Florida State that opened the season isn't as impressive now, considering how bleak things look down in Tallahassee. But you can bet Boise won't be taking Air Force lightly. While they've beaten the Flyboys each of the last two seasons, before that they'd actually lost three straight times to them. One of those was among the seven home losses that have occurred on this field in the past decade. This is going to be a tough spot for Air Force as they played an overtime game last week in Colorado, which saw them upset the favored Buffaloes. Boise State, meanwhile, had a virtual layup against Portland State. Air Force is obviously going to look to run the ball in this game, but so far the Boise State run defense has been very good. We like what we've seen from true freshman QB Hank Bachmeier as well. He's thrown 13 touchdown passes in three games while averaging 343 yards per game through the air. Rough spot on a short week for the underdog here and they are just 7-18-1 ATS their last 26 Mountain West games. Play on BOISE STATE

AAA

This is an 8* play on TIGERS +1.5

The Tigers made a bit of history last night and it's not the kind they should be proud of as they lost to the Indians for an 18th time this year. No team had ever lost 18 times to a single opponent in a given year before this (Tigers beat the Indians just once). There's the potential for a lot more infamous history to be made here as Detroit has been outscored by 306 runs over the course of the season. Taking them, in any situation, is tough to advise. But we will today as you can grab the +1.5 at a relatively decent price going against a White Sox team that is also among the worst in the league. Sure, the White Sox aren't as bad as the Tigers. But their own -141 scoring differential is bottom six in baseball and the idea of them winning a road game by multiple runs is not something you should ever bank on, even when matched up with the Tigers. They're sending a pitcher (Dylan Cease) with a 6.04 ERA and 1.58 WHIP to the mound tonight. Normally, that would be an easy fade on the money line, but we do have to be cautious about who Detroit has pitching too as Jordan Zimmerman is 1-11. But Zimmerman has pitched pretty decent for someone with that kind of record, at least in the second half, as he has a 1.11 WHIP his last seven starts. Play DETROIT on the RUN LINE (+1.5)

AAA

This is an 10* play on the CUBS

The Cubs badly need this game as they've fallen behind the Brewers in the Wild Card race (one game). Were they to miss out on the playoffs, and the Brewers get in, it would upset many in the analytics community considering the Cubs have a +114 run differential on the year (2nd best in the whole National League) while Milwaukee is -21. But the Brewers continue to take advantage of an advantageous schedule while the Cubs have now lost three straight home games, two to the Reds and then yesterday in extra innings to the first place Cardinals. We're not used to seeing the Cubs drop games in Wrigley; their 51 home victories are 4th most in baseball. Because of an injury to Cole Hamels, he's being skipped in the rotation here and Alec Mills will start in his place. Friday will mark just the third start for Mills and first since July. (He's been working out of the bullpen ever since). His first two starts were fine as he gave up five runs in 10 1/3 innings. He had 11 strikeouts and just two walks. But the "real story" here is the poor history that Cardinals starter Michael Wacha has with the Cubs. In 19 career appearances against them, Wacha's ERA is 6.68. He hasn't pitched that well on the road either, no matter whom he's facing, as his record is 4-8 with a 1.52 WHIP. St. Louis had been 0-6 here in Chicago prior to winning yesterday. You have to think the Cubs bounce back here. Play on CHICAGO

AAA

This is a 10* play on the OVER

The Titans were oh so close to 2-0 last week, but couldn't finish the job against the Colts. They had a late 17-13 lead, but after a missed FG things quickly went awry. The Colts scored the go-ahead touchdown after a 55-yard run, but a missed XP by Adam Vinateri definitely left the door open for Tennessee, who was down only 19-17. But the Titans offense could muster nothing on its final two drives. Still, they're in better position than the 0-2 Jaguars, who went for 2 and the win against Houston (could have kicked XP and gone to OT instead). They obviously failed and it was a 13-12 loss. While it was a low-scoring game for both teams last week, let's go back to Week 1. Tennessee scored 43 while Jacksonville gave up 40. This will likely end up closing as the lowest total on the Week 3 board despite what happened in Week 1. There's definitely value on the Over in our estimation. The Over is 6-2 in the Titans last eight Thursday games and 4-0 when they are off an ATS loss. Jacksonville is 6-2 Over if they allowed 15 or less points in the last game. Play OVER Tennessee-Jacksonville

AAA

This is a 10* play on the OVER

Houston and Tulane have combined to play six games this year. The Under is 6-0. Houston is 1-2 straight up, thanks to a tough schedule to open the season, which has seen them already face Oklahoma and Washington State. The Cougars only win was against a FCS team and a bad one at that (Prairie View A&M). Tulane lost to Auburn in Week 2, but won its other two games, one of which was against a FCS foe. They also opened the season by beating FIU 42-17. Given that kind of scoring output, we think it's pretty reasonable for the Green Wave to score a lot this week. They also hung 58 on Missouri State last week. Houston not surprisingly is no offensive slouch either as they're averaging over 30 points/game. But a defense that has given up 80 points to its two FBS opponents is a cause for concern. This is a really low total for a game involving Houston. The first three all saw totals in the 70's. That the number has been bet down is a break for us. Play OVER Houston-Tulane

AAA

This is a 7* play on BOSTON

This series has drawn attention due to the fact the Giants have Mike Yazstremski on their roster, the grandson of legendary Boston Hall of Famer Carl Yazstremski. There must be something about the last name and Fenway Park because the Giants have surprisingly won the first two games of this series. It was a one-run win, 7-6 in 15 innings, on Tuesday. That has been the Giants "M.O." in 2019 as their a MLB-best 37-15 in one-run games. It was a far more decisive win last night, 11-3, as they scored seven runs in the final two innings. The Giants success in one-run games this year has masked that this really isn't a very good team as they've still been outscored by 69 runs. For Boston, the playoffs are basically no longer possible, but winning a home game should be a motivating factor. They've lost five in a row at Fenway Park, which you don't see very often. They've got to face Madison Bumgarner this afternoon, a challenge for sure, but he's failed to beat Boston in two previous tries. The Giants have also lost Bumgarner's last two starts, both at home, to last place teams (Miami, Pittsburgh). Before those, he gave up six runs in a loss at St. Louis. Eduardo Rodriguez pitched masterfully in his last start for Boston, striking out 12 and giving up just one run and four hits in a 2-1 Red Sox win in Philadelphia. That improved his team start record to 23-8 this season. Rodriguez also can claim to have allowed 0 or 1 runs five of his last six starts. Red Sox avoid the sweep here. Play on BOSTON

AAA

This is a 10* play on MILWAUKEE

The Brewers continue to handle their business as they've beaten the Padres two straight, pulling them into a tie for the Wild Card with the Cubs. Milwaukee was actually swept out in San Diego earlier in the year, but facing the Padres now has proven advantageous as not only do they have the homefield advantage, they're the only motivated side in this matchup. San Diego has lost six in a row now with three of those losses seeing them score just one run and the other three seeing them give up at least 10. That's a bad combo. Two of the games where they scored only one run have come here in this series and there's really no reason to expect they'll perform any better at the plate tonight. Milwaukee is 11-1 in its last 12 games as they've gotten hot at the perfect time. The starter for tonight, Adrian Houser, was the one who started the only loss in the L12 games. However, he should rebound nicely here vs. a team that's hitting only .205 in the last week. Houser has a 3.12 ERA his previous seven starts. As for Padres starter Dinelson Lamet, you're looking at an 0-4 team start record his last four outings. The Padres have also lost eight straight road games. Play on MILWAUKEE

AAA

This is an 8* play on the METS

We used the Mets yesterday and that worked out well as they were able to stay relevant in the Wild Card by beating Colorado 6-1. The Rockies had previous won six of seven, but it's still been a bad year, one that likely ends with them in last place in the NL West. Facing a team that has nothing left to play for, the Mets have to take advantage here as their playoff hopes remain slim. It's a four game deficit that they're still facing with only 11 left to play. You have to like that they have Noah Syndergaard pitching today. He's had Colorado's number in the past, going 2-0 with a 2.42 ERA in four starts, though none of them have come here at Coors Field. A big key here is that Wilson Ramos will NOT catch for Syndergaard. In the 16 starts with Ramos as catcher, Syndergaard's ERA is 5.20. In the other 11, with either Nido or Rivera behind the plate, that number drops to 2.22. Just as encouraging as having Syndergaard pitching for the Mets is who will be starting opposite him for the Rockies. Jeff Hoffman just hasn't been very good. He has a 7.03 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in 12 starts, one of which was against the Mets and he gave up six runs. Coincidentally, Syndergaard pitched that game for the Mets, a 6-1 win. The Mets offense should continue to take advantage of the opportunities provided by Coors Field and Syndegaard should handle the Rockies in short order. Play on NY METS

AAA

This is an 8* play on WASHINGTON

The Cardinals now have two teams hot on their heels as the Brewers and Cubs are both just two games back in the NL Central race. After scoring just two runs in each of the first two games here vs. Washington, you can imagine that Max Scherzer is the last sight they wanted to see when they look out at the mound today. Scherzer is from St. Louis and has pitched very well here at Busch Stadium in the past. Four starts here have resulted in a 1.44 ERA and a 35-4 strikeout to walk ratio. He's allowed just four runs in 25 innings. While he missed about a month on the DL, Scherzer has an 11-2 team start record since the start of June. He's also gone 7-1 in 11 road starts this year with a 2.26 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. Those are all obviously outstanding numbers and what you want to see when taking the Nationals this afternoon. That's the call here as despite Adam Wainwright's own recent pitching prowess, we don't see St. Louis being able to hang with the favored Nats in this spot. Only a handful of teams have a better scoring margin on the road than Washington, all of them first place teams. Play on WASHINGTON

AAA

This is an 8* play on the METS

From July 25th until August 10th, the Mets played 16 games. They won 15 of them. That run had them thinking Wild Card, but that is now getting more and more unlikely. Since that 15-1 run, the team has basically played .500 ball and is actually now one game under after last night's loss to Colorado. Of course, during that 15-1 run, the Mets were playing nothing but bad teams. Colorado is a bad team as they are in last place in the NL West with a 66-85 record, despite a four-game win streak. One big inning saved the Rockies last night as they scored six runs in the bottom half of the fourth. Don't look for that to happen again though. Not against Marcus Stroman, who they'll face tonight at Coors Field. Stroman has made eight starts for the Mets. The team has gone 5-3 in them and he was completely dominant last Thursday in an 11-1 win over the Diamondbacks. In that start, Stroman allowed just one run and four hits. He has previously pitched here at Coors this season, back on June 1st when he was still with the Blue Jays. He pitched well, giving up just three earned runs. We shouldn't have to tell you that the Rockies are giving up a major league worst 6.9 runs/game at home. Tonight's starter Tim Melville has negatively impacted that number in limited time, giving up nine runs in his last five innings pitched here. He has an ugly 9.28 ERA and 2.06 WHIP his last three starts overall. The Mets bounce back with a win on Tuesday. Play on NY METS

AAA

This is a 10* play on LAS VEGAS

In case you haven't been paying any attention, the WNBA playoffs have reached the semifinal round. Most experts agree that a Connecticut vs. Washington final is inevitable, but that also makes the underdogs in the two respective series somewhat valuable as they're going to be getting a lot of points. Case in point here with Las Vegas in Game 1 of the best of five series with top seeded Washington. The Aces got here thanks to a miraculous last second shot from Dearica Hamby, which gave them a 93-92 win over Chicago on Sunday. But they also have a 22-12 record. There aren't a ton of good teams in this league, but Las Vegas is one of them. So the Mystics laying so many points, after a long layoff, is trickier than it sounds. Might the team who finished the regular season with the best overall record come out a bit rusty? It's certainly possible. . Note that the Mystics are 0-4-1 ATS the last five times they've played on three or more days rest. Las Vegas did beat Washington earlier this year. It was with Elena Delle Donne out of the Mystics lineup, but that game was also here in Washington. The Aces are 7-3 ATS the last 10 meetings. Play on LAS VEGAS

AAA

This is a 6* play on Atlanta

Atlanta has already assured itself a spot in the playoffs. Now all that's left to do is to nail down the NL East for a second year in a row and possibly catch the Dodgers for homefield advantage. They certainly would appear to have a favorable matchup with the Phillies on Tuesday as they look to achieve those goals. Philadelphia is technically still alive for the Wild Card, but things are now looking rather bleak after a losing homestand left them 4.5 games back and needing to jump two teams. Making matters worse is that Vince Velasquez has to face the Braves tonight. Velasquez has never beaten Atlanta in 10 career starts. He's 0-6 with a 5.36 ERA against them. His one start vs. the Braves in 2019 yielded four runs as he lasted only 2 2/3 innings. On the other hand, Dallas Keuchel has not only been lights out lately for the Braves, he's had tremendous success when facing Philly. Five career starts against the Phillies have produced a 1.42 ERA for Keuchel. His overall results of late have been even more impressive. His last six starts have all been wins for the Braves (with Keuchel going 5-0 with one no decision) and he has a 0.97 ERA during that time. He's allowed just four runs in 37 innings and has 35 strikeouts. Tonight's pitching matchup totally favors the Braves and all other signs point to them winning as well. Play on ATLANTA

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This is an 8* play on CLEVELAND

After a disastrous Week 1 performance, Cleveland has caught a major break here with Jets quarterback Sam Darnold being out due to mono. In his place, the Jets turn to Trevor Siemian, who was last seen guiding an anemic offense in Denver last season. It's not that Darnold is any kind of All-Pro, it's just that we think Siemian is that bad. But perhaps more concerning are the injuries on the defensive side of the ball for the Jets as LB CJ Mosley and DL Quennin Williams are both going to miss tonight's game. While it's true the Jets blew a 16-0 lead to the Bills last week, they were actually quite fortunate to even be in that position as Bills quarterback Josh Allen accounted for four first half turnovers. The Browns got a ton of offseason hype and know that another loss could mean the wheels will start coming off for rookie coach Freddie Kitchens. While the Jets may not have been as "unlucky" as you think they were last week, the Browns weren't as outclassed by the Titans as you might think in a 43-13 loss. It was still a two-point game very late in the third quarter. If they are able to cut down on their own mistakes (namely penalties!), we've seen how little a Darnold-led Jets offense can do. Now just imagine how poor they'll be with Siemian taking snaps. The Browns beat the Jets last year, thanks to Baker Mayfield coming in and leading a comeback. With him now fully embedded as the starter, look for a fast start by the Browns Monday night. Play CLEVELAND 

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This is a 10* play on BALTIMORE

The Orioles being both favored and endorsed by us is a rare situation, but it happens here as they face the one team that has a worse record. That Baltimore is favored like this ON THE ROAD speaks volumes on the current state of baseball in Detroit. The Tigers are 44-104 (Orioles are 49-100) and have been outscored by almost 300 runs this season, which would be a new record for futility. Detroit is 4-19 as a home dog of +125 to +175 among other things. They're being outscored by 2.7 runs/game at home! This line also speaks to the pitching matchup as John Means will go for the Orioles. The one reliable starter in the rotation, Means has given up 2 ER or less in five straight starts. He has a 2.70 ERA and 0.70 WHIP in the last three. For what it's worth, Baltimore did win the only time this year that they were road favorites of -125 to -175 ... that was yesterday's 8-2 win here in Detroit! Look for them to make it three of four over the Tigers as their hitters should have a field day going against struggling Tigers starter Alexander, who has been hit hard his last three starts, all of which are losses. He has allowed 13 runs in 14 1/3 innings and also given up 27 hits. If there ever was a spot to like Baltimore, it would be this game. Play on BALTIMORE

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This is a 9* play on the LA DODGERS

The Dodgers have already clinched the division, now it's just a matter of earning home field advantage for the duration of the playoffs. They're already well on their way on the National League side, holding a three game advantage over the Braves. But they're behind both the Yankees and Astros of the American League for the best overall record in baseball. A 3-0 loss to the Mets yesterday didn't help matters, but we can't see them losing two in a row. The Mets are of course just trying to get into the playoffs as they are three back of the Wild Card currently. A big key in earning the win last night was having Jacob deGrom starting. Tonight, the Mets are left with Zach Wheeler, who isn't a bad pitcher by any means. But it's highly unlikely he'll be able to match Walker Buehler, who is in the top 10 among NL starters in wins (6th), strikeouts (10th) and ERA (8th). He's 1st with a 1.02 WHIP. In three of his last four starts, Buehler has not allowed a single run (4 of his L6 as well). Over his last seven starts, you're looking at a 2.45 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. Wheeler just can't match those numbers even though he's allowed only 1 ER in three straight starts with the team winning all three times. The Dodgers are 34-19 off a loss this year, including 4-1 if they were shutout. Play on LA DODGERS

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This is a 10* on JACKSONVILLE

With a game that has such a low total, this sure is a lot of points for the Texans to be laying. Sure, disaster struck Jacksonville with quarterback Nick Foles going down with a collarbone injury in Week 1. Foles, the team's key free agent signing in the offseason, was supposed to help transform an offense that wasn't very good in 2018. Now it's rookie Gardner Minshew (Wash St) calling the shots. Still, it's a lot points. Houston is on working on a short week as they played Monday night in New Orleans. They lost that game in heartbreaking fashion after Saints QB Drew Brees drove his team down for the winning field goal. That came right after DeShaun Watson drove the Texans down the field for a temporary lead. Given the situation, this is too many points to lay with Houston. What if Minshew turns out not to be a liability? Against Kansas City, he actually completed 22 of his 25 pass attempts for 275 yards. That was in an emergency situation. The road team is on an 11-4-1 ATS run in this AFC rivalry, so we'll take the points. Play on JACKSONVILLE

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This is a 10* Play on the UNDER

Last week's game involving the Chargers should have been an Under as they led 24-16 with less than a minute to go. But the defense not only let the Colts drive down for a touchdown, but also gave up a two-point conversion that sent the game into overtime. Fortunately for Chargers fans, Philip Rivers got the ball first in OT and never let the Colts have a chance as LA scored a TD on its first possession. But the Chargers weren't the only team last week to have overtime ruin what looked to be a sure under. Detroit led Arizona 24-6 early in the fourth quarter before Cardinals rookie Kyler Murray awoke and led his team on a wild comeback. The game wound up going to OT, but unlike Chargers-Colts, there was no winner as it ended up a 27-27 tie. This week, the Chargers offense won't have TE Hunter Henry nor will they have him the rest of the season (fractured knee). That'll affect them drastically. They are already without RB Melvin Gordon, who is holding out. Austin Eckler had the game of his life starting in place of Gordon last week, but won't be repeating that performance here. Detroit's offense will probably look to run a lot here after the Chargers defense got gashed on the ground by the Colts. But we're not sure the Lions will have the same success. The Under hit in the last five Lions home games last year. Play UNDER Chargers-Detroit

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This is a 10* play on the UNDER

We've seen this total skyrocket due to Baltimore putting up 59 points in Week 1. But such efficiency is highly unlikely two weeks in a row and even if the Ravens are successful again this week (and it's very likely they will be), they won't be scoring as much. With top overall draft pick Kyler Murray making his first career start, the Arizona offense looked pretty bad for three quarters last week. They scored only six points before a furious late rally forced overtime and ultimately earned them a tie with the Lions. Again, it's likely the Cardinals find themselves down entering the 4th quarter here. But the Ravens defense won't be nearly as generous as the Lions were. They gave up just 200 total yards to Miami. In the last 10 years, the Ravens have only lost to a rookie QB one time.  Baltimore won't be scoring 40+ every week, or even most weeks this season. Not all, but a good deal of their offensive performance last week had to do with whom they were facing. Arizona had the worst record in the league last year, but they're better than Miami. This will be a relatively low-scoring affair and best of all is that the number has been bet up several points, presenting us with a value situation. Play UNDER Arizona-Baltimore

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This is an 8* play on MIAMI

It's only Week 2, but Miami already finds itself in a position where they are taking 18.5 points at home. If that seems preposterous, then you obviously missed last week's performance where they were clobbered 59-10 by Baltimore - at home. Getting matched up here with the Patriots, who looked as good as ever in wiping the mat with Pittsburgh last week (33-3 win), and it's no wonder Miami is one of the biggest single game underdogs we've seen in recent years. But they still are a professional team and this is way too many points NOT to take in the NFL. It was a few years ago that Jacksonville was getting even more points on the road against Peyton Manning and Denver. They easily covered the spread. Then there's this tidbit. New England has actually LOST five of the last six games in Miami (straight up) including each of the last two years. This is the biggest home dog we've seen since 2007 ... when New England failed to cover at Baltimore. The only larger September spread - of any kind - in NFL history was 1968 and the Jets (-20) actually the lost the game on the field to the Bills. You have to take the points in this situation. It's very hard to win on the road in this league, let alone by 20 points. Play on MIAMI

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This is a 10* on UCLA

The vultures are circling Chip Kelly right now as UCLA is 0-2 and the school is reportedly having to give tickets away for this home game, even though it's nationally televised and against Oklahoma. Now the matchup all but guarantees the Bruins will be 0-3. But while their fans may have given up on them, we will not. This is a lot of points, at home, for a team that many thought would be 2-0. Oklahoma might be a top five team, but they have a suspect defense that has really yet to be tested. In this situation, Kelly has nothing to lose and everything to gain. Expect him to go deep into his bag of tricks. The Sooners might have won the last seven games where they were road favorites. But they are also just 1-5-1 against the spread in those seven games. Before last week's loss to San Diego State, UCLA could usually be counted on for a solid performance in the Rose Bowl. This is an experienced team that Kelly brought back with more of his recruits. It's been incredible to see UCLA getting so many points when they were "only" getting 29 last year in Norman. They covered in that loss by a single point. Here they are at home, desperate, and should play better than we've seen the last two weeks, even though they are facing a superior side. Last year, the Bruins were getting 3 touchdowns at home against Top 10 Washington and only lost by seven points. Maybe its not that close here, but UCLA will stay within the number. Play on UCLA

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This is an 8* play on NEW MEXICO STATE

A week after a completely unimpressive 6-0 win over Weber State, San Diego State went to the Rose Bowl and upset UCLA 23-14 as 7.5-point underdogs. Explain that. It's tough to, though UCLA repeatedly shot itself in the foot. This week, the Aztecs will be the favorite, on the road. That's tricky for a team that scores so few points. It's a big number too. In its last 15 games, San Diego State has scored more than 24 points just four times and never more than 31. A big home game vs. Utah State next week promises to divert the Aztecs attention from this week's opponent. New Mexico State may not bring in a stellar resume, but after playing Washington State and Alabama to start its season, they definitely won't be intimidated. This is the home opener as well. The Aggies are a respectable 5-5 SU in Las Cruces the last two years. Even after last week's win, San Diego State is still just 4-8 its last 12 non-conference road games and that's straight up! Being -6 in turnovers vs. Alabama and Washington State did New Mexico State no favors. Let's assume they clean that up a bit and it's easy to see them being more competitive this week. Play on NEW MEXICO STATE

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This is an 8* play on JORDAN GRIFFIN

We're going with a preliminary fight here and it's an intriguing one at featherweight. Jordan Griffin and Chas Skelly were originally slated to fight at UFC on ESPN 3, but that fell apart. But three months later, here were are. Skelly seems to be trending in a bad direction with losses in three of his last five fights, including the last two. He hasn't been that active either as those last two fights were in May of 2017 and November of last year. This from a fighter who once won two fights in a two-week span back in 2014! Skelly was knocked out and choked out in those last two fights as well. Griffin is also fighting for the 1st time this year after losing his last fight, back in December. But that was just his third loss in the last 19 fights. You can look for him to keep this fight standing where he has a substantial edge. Griffin is also strong enough defensively that we can't see Skelly getting him into any compromising positions. Skelly's inactivity was due to injuries and it's hard to imagine he ever gets things back on track. We've seen Griffin's odds skyrocket over the last 24 hours and for good reason. Play on JORDAN GRIFFIN

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This is a 10* Play on the OVER

For the second year in a row, Cal beat Washington and both times they did it with defense. Last year, it was a 12-10 win without an offensive TD. Last week, it was 20-19 on a last-second FG, a game that was delayed nearly 2 1/2 hours because of weather. This defense, led by one of the better secondaries in the country, is quite clearly pretty good. But this week we feel it will be the offense's turn to show what it can do as it faces a North Texas defense that isn't the least bit good. The Mean Green gave up 52 in the bowl to end last year and lost some key players from that defense. That poor bowl performance looks to have carried over into 2019. The first game, they gave up 31 points and 456 yards to Abilene Christian. It got worse last week in a visit to SMU where they got torched for 49 points and 503 yards. Luckily, UNT does have an offense with a senior QB Mason Fine that can put points on the board. While it's the worst defense Cal has faced yet, it's also the best offense. Fine has guided the offense to 78 points in two games. He's thrown for nearly 8000 yards the last two seasons and is the school's all-time passing leader. This O/U has been bet down several points. While its understandable because of Cal's defensive effort last week, it's too low. Take the OVER

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This is a 10* play on WASHINGTON

One could argue that the Nationals are having every bit the good season that the Braves are. After all, they have a slightly better run differential than Atlanta. Washington has gone 62-34 overall since May 24th. However, they have had one heck of a problem beating their division rival and that problem continued last night with a 5-0 shutout loss. That was the sixth time in the last seven meetings they lost to the Braves. It was also the eighth time the Nats have been shutout this year. Now 9.5 games back, there's virtually zero shot Washington can catch Atlanta in the division, but they still lead the Wild Card and preserving that advantage is priority number one right now. Despite the stakes being so high for both teams, they are starting pitchers that are question marks this afternoon. Mike Foltynewicz has pitched well since a stint in the minors, but it was Washington that sent him there when they scored eight runs on him, in only four innings, back in late June. Austin Voth is the starter for the Nationals. This is only his 2nd time starting since July. The first was against these Braves last Saturday. He gave up two solo home runs in four innings. We expect him to pitch better at home this time. The Nationals are also 7-3 off their last 10 losses. Play on WASHINGTON

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This is an 8* play on NAVY

Navy had an uncharacteristic season last year. They went 3-10, its worst record since 2002. You have to think the Midshipmen are shoo-ins to improve in 2019 and they've already gotten the season off to a positive start with a 45-7 win over Holy Cross. In that game, they ran for 428 yards. But perhaps more promising with them throwing for 103 yards. That's nothing for most teams. But Navy, who has run the triple option for years, was last in the country at 72.8 passs yards/game last year. They've promised to add elements of a run-and-shoot offense this year. Ken Niumatalolo totally retooled his coaching staff this year. Having a bye last week is another nice early season edge. East Carolina is a program in transition with a first year coach in Mike Houston. The Pirates also won three games last year, just like Navy, but there's no real history here of winning, at least recently. They've won just three games each of the last three years. They've gone 1-16 SU on the road, so this line being so short is a definite surprise. ECU has covered just 6 of the last 22 times it has been an underdog. They were beaten 34-6 at NC State in the opener. A 48-9 win last week over Gardner-Webb means little in the grand scheme. They've lost by an average of 24.5 points/game the last two times they played Navy. Play on NAVY

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This is an 8* play on INDIANA

So much for Urban Meyer. Ryan Day has Ohio State rolling at 2-0 with wins over Florida Atlantic (45-21) and Cincinnati (42-0). The Buckeyes defense obviously played better than the second game and QB Justin Fields, a transfer from Georgia, has looked great. But consider the talent gap between the Buckeyes and those first two opponents. Now OSU opens Big 10 play. Sure, it's against Indiana, but it's also on the road. The Hoosiers were actually more competitive in last year's game at Ohio Stadium than the final score shows. They did cover as 26-point dogs (final score was 49-26), but it was only an eight-point game at half and IU led in the second quarter. The Hoosiers are also off a shutout, 52-0 over Eastern Illinois, and beat Ball State 34-24 in the opener. So their offense is humming too. Last week was Indiana's biggest margin of victory in 25 years. After missing out on a bowl the last two years, you know this team is going to be motivated. They've come close to pulling a major upset in Big 10 play the last few years, but never finished the job. They have lost 10 times by seven points or less the four years in Big 10 play. Every year, at least one of those losses was to a Top 20 team. We're taking the points, especially with new starting quarterback Michael Penix, a freshman, looking so good. Play on INDIANA

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This is a 10* play on SEATTLE

It's not all too often you'll find the Mariners favored on the moneyline, but when the White Sox come to town, the oddsmakers will have to oblige. Though we're hesitant to take any favorite that's dropped seven of nine, let alone one that's in last place, this is the time to make an exception. Chicago is a team that's much worse than most realize. They've scored the third fewest runs in all of MLB this year and as a result have been outscored by 140 runs. Why is that significant? Well, a team with a -140 run differential at this point of the season is "expected" to have only 58 wins. The White Sox are 64-82. Not a good record, but it should be worse. That six-game gap between how many they've actually won and what run differential says they should have won is actually tied the second largest in baseball. Seattle has been every bit as bad this year, but gets a break tonight in facing Dylan Covey. It's not just that the White Sox have lost Covey's last five starts or that he has a 8.14 ERA and 1.68 WHIP for the year (1-7 in 11 starts overall). In his last three starts, Covey has been clobbered to the tune of a 17.65 ERA and 2.31 WHIP! He's given up 17 runs in just over eight innings, including 12 his last 2 2/3. By comparison, Kikuchi is "Cy Young" for Seattle as he allowed just one run his last start. Chicago lost as a favorite each of the last two days, to the Royals no less, so we have every reason to doubt them here as underdogs. Play on SEATTLE

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This is a 10* play on KANSAS

Les Miles knew it would be a tall mountain to climb when he took on the job at Kansas. After all, this is a program that had suffered through a miserable 6-42 record the previous four years under David Beatty. Through two games, Miles is 1-1 in Lawrence. The Jayhawks first game saw them rally (after blowing a double-digit lead) to beat an FCS opponent, Indiana State. Last week, they were competitive, but ultimately lost 12-7 to Coastal Carolina. Interestingly, KU scored on its opening drive, but never again. While there's obviously still a ton of room for growth here, no longer look for the Jayhawks to be the pushover they once were. Miles will have them playing hard. That's what makes this week's line at BC so interesting. The Eagles have scored more than anticipated the first two games. They hung 35 on Va Tech in a bit of an upset, then 45 more on Richmond last week. But the defense hasn't been as sound as it usually is. They allowed 442 yards vs. Va Tech, but got the benefit of five Hokies turnovers. Last week, even Richmond was able to attain 364 total yards. Yes, BC will be able to run the ball with the best of 'em. But so can Kansas with Pooka Williams Jr (99 yards last week) now back from suspension. With that BC defense, it's worth mentioning they have only three returning starters from last year. The Eagles have not been favored by more than three touchdown over a FBS team in the last five years. Play on KANSAS

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This is a 10* play on BOSTON 

If there was any doubt that the Red Sox playoff hopes were dead and buried, that was put to rest this week in Toronto where the reigning World Champs have lost two in a row, both as favorites. The losing streak has now hit five in a row and they are 10 games back of the Wild Card. In other words, "there's always next year!" But there's "always tomorrow" too and we do see Boston avoiding the sweep tonight. Making what has happened to the Red Sox in this series all the more embarrassing is that the Blue Jays had lost six in a row coming in. It was an 8-0 shutout Wednesday, but the good news there is that Toronto is just 1-5 after a shutout win this year. The Jays are hitting just .228 at home this year. Despite the fact they are going to miss the playoffs, Boston still has a +76 run differential, which is quite good. A "X-factor" in tonight's game is Red Sox starter Jhoulys Chacin, who Toronto has never faced as he'd always pitched in the National League before coming to Boston. Chacin has thrown three scoreless innings so far for the Sox, in two appearances, both against the Yankees. One was a start and he was perfect in two innings. Clay Buchholz starts for Toronto against his former team and his time has passed. He has just one win and a 5.31 ERA in eight starts. Play on BOSTON

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This is an 8* play on MIAMI +1.5

The Marlins have not won a game in this series, which wraps up early Thursday afternoon. We played Milwaukee in one of the previous three games (Tuesday), but that was before they lost Christian Yelich to a season-ending injury. Last night, they were able to win the first game without Yelich, but it wasn't easy as they needed a tie-breaking 2-run home run from Mike Moustakas in the top of the ninth. It was the Brewers sixth victory in a row. But coming back and winning a day game is going to be tough, even though their opponent is having a poor season. The good news here for Miami is that starter Caleb Smith pitches a lot better at home. He has a 3.19 ERA in 12 starts at Marlins Park and the team's record is 7-5! His last start was a great one as he tossed six shutout innings of four-hit ball. Despite what's gone down in this series so far, Milwaukee has not been a particularly good road team this year. They have a losing record away from Miller Park and have swept only two road series all year. One was back in April vs. Cincinnati, the other last month in Pittsburgh. But both series were only three games. Gio Gonzalez has a 5.54 ERA and 1.62 WHIP for Milwaukee his last three starts. Play MIAMI on the RUN LINE +1.5 

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This is an 8* play on CINCINNATI

The Reds didn't come through for us last night, but it's not as if it was a bad call. They led 3-2 going into the bottom of the eighth, but unfortunately that's when a Kyle Seager home run drastically altered the game. Seattle won 4-3, despite only four hits for the game. Betting against the Mariners here seems logical. It's been almost a month since they won two straight games. They'd lost six straight going into yesterday, including a humiliating 21-1 result on Sunday at the hands of Houston. Cincinnati isn't Houston, but they are a team that ranks in the top eight in all of baseball in runs allowed. Trevor Bauer took a no-hit bid into the fifth inning last night, which makes the final result all the more disappointing. Tonight it'll be Sonny Gray on the mound. Gray has won five straight decisions and though he didn't win either of his last two, he allowed just 1 ER in 12+ innings. Gray also is 5-2 lifetime vs. Seattle with a 2.71 ERA in 11 starts. Can't say we think much of Mariners starter Marco Gonzales, who has allowed a total of 11 runs his last two starts. The team has lost five of his last seven starts. Play on CINCINNATI

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This is a 10* play on WASHINGTON

Washington had been red hot before running into Atlanta last weekend. They lost three of four games in that series, all but cooking their chances of catching the Braves in the NL East. Still, they're in the driver's seat for the Wild Card, but losing 5-0 to the Twins Tuesday night certainly didn't help the cause. We look for the Nationals to bounce back from that defeat as they send Stephen Strasburg to the mound tonight. Strasburg has been quite good of late, no surprise there. He has allowed a total of just five runs in his last four starts, which have spanned 27 innings. He didn't allow any runs in two of the four. Note that Minnesota was scoreless until the 7th inning last night and didn't even get a hit until the 5th. So this matchup sets up well for Strasburg. He's being opposed here by Martin Perez and unlike Jose Berrios last night, we don't feel Perez is up to the challenge. He did pitch shockingly well vs. Boston last week. But in his start before that one, he was tagged for eight runs by Detroit. Minnesota is only hitting .199 over the past week and that's a problem when facing Strasburg. Play on WASHINGTON

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This is a 10* on the CUBS

We played the Cubs Monday night as they rolled to 10-2 win here in San Diego. We'll go with them again Tuesday. Yes, the Cubs have had all sorts of problems winning on the road this year (road record is 30-43) and that's why they are no sure thing right now to make the playoffs. But winning in San Diego ought not to be terribly difficult. Obviously, the Cubs made it look easy last night. With some key injuries to their everyday lineup, Nico Hoerner stepped up and delivered three hits and four RBI's, the second Cubs player since 1920 to do so in his MLB debut. Tonight, the team can likely lean on starter Jose Quintana. Though he allowed two home runs in his last start, Quintana still got the win and is 5-1 with a 2.66 ERA/1.06 WHIP his last seven outings. He's also 9-1 over his last 12 starts. The Padres go with Bolanos, who just made his MLB debut last week. It was a tough loss as Bolanos only gave up two runs. But his offense scored only one run. That's par for the course as the Padres have scored only 11 runs in the last six games, never eclipsing three in any one game. The Cubs badly need to rack up some victories and this should be an easy one. Play on CHICAGO CUBS

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This is an 8* play on CINCINNATI

A seven-game homestand didn't go the way the Reds had hoped as they finished with a 3-4 record. But Seattle's just completed road trip was far worse. It ended with six straight losses, including a humiliating 21-1 defeat on Sunday (to the Astros), the punctuation mark on what has been a terrible season. So even though they're now the road team and the Mariners are at home, the Reds should win easily here. Trevor Bauer hasn't pitched as well as they'd hoped, but is still a better option than what Seattle will be sending out to the mound. Justus Sheffield has a 5.40 ERA and 1.73 WHIP in three starts, even though he just threw five scoreless innings in his last one. That should tell you how bad the first two were. The Mariners are just 45-84 their last 129 games. Bauer has a long history of facing them. Not only did Seattle lose 21-1 on Sunday, they finished with only one hit! It was as bad a loss as any team has taken this MLB season. Seattle is just 4-10 vs. the National League and while Cincinnati doesn't have the best road record, they are 5-2 as road favorites of -125 to -175. Play on CINCINNATI

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This is a 7* play on MILWAUKEE

Milwaukee didn't have a hard time beating Miami last night. They jumped out to an early 2-0 lead and when all was said and done, it was an 8-3 victory, which keeps them two back of the Wild Card. Tuesday should be a similarly easy win for the Brewers. Miami, who often struggles to score runs (last in NL), wasted a golden opportunity last night. They had the bases loaded four times and still managed to score only three runs. It's unlikely they have as many total bases in tonight's game. This is a big revenge spot for Brewers starter Chase Anderson as the last time he faced the Marlins, his team lost 16-0, at home! But Anderson has a 2.55 ERA in four previous starts here in Miami. The Brewers have now won four in a row and are the only team in this matchup with something to play for. The Marlins go with Hernandez on Tuesday. He's allowed 9 runs in 9 innings his last two starts. Both were on the road. While a better pitcher at home, the team is just 11-25 as a home dog of +125 to +175. The Marlins have the worst record and run differential in the National League. In a tight playoff race, the Brewers should be thankful to be playing them right now and will take full advantage of the opportunity. Play on MILWAUKEE

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This is a 10* on the UNDER

Compared to the early game, Denver-Oakland figures to feature little in the way of scoring. You've got two bad offensive teams, one starting Joe Flacco at quarterback and the other trying to pick up the pieces in the wake of the Antonio Brown debacle. The Raiders are a complete joke right now as acquiring Brown cost them draft picks and he didn't he play a game for them. It's a complete distraction heading into the season, which by the way will be their final one in Oakland. This Raiders team has averaged only 18 points/game each of the past two seasons. QB Derek Carr has regressed heavily during that time. Not only do the Raiders not have Brown at their disposal, also gone is TE Jared Cook, who had a career year in 2018. The Denver offense isn't going to be much better this year with the aging Flacco serving merely as a stop gap before someone else takes the reigns (Drew Lock?). Defense is the speciality of new Broncos coach Vic Fangio, so expect them to be stronger on that side of the ball. Their defensive front should overwhelm what is looking like a terrible Oakland offensive line here. The Under went 13-3 in all Denver games a season ago. The Under is also 16-5 the Raiders last 21 games on grass. Play UNDER Denver-Oakland

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This is a 10* on the CUBS

If the Cubs ultimately end up missing the playoffs, the blame will be squarely placed on their poor road record, which is now 29-42 after they dropped three of four over the weekend in Milwaukee. They lost the last three days, so there's a real sense of urgency heading into this series opener with San Diego. The Padres are not a good team and frankly, the Cubs should beat them with ease. Yes, the Padres did win both Saturday and Sunday against the Rockies. But in the last five games they've scored a grand total of nine runs. The two starting pitchers for Monday are very much trending in different directions with the Cubs Kyle Hendricks sporting a 3-0 team start record his last three starts with a 3.57 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. Since the All Star Break, he's given up two runs or less in 8 of 10 starts. Hendricks also has a 5-2 career record vs. San Diego with a 2.98 ERA. The Padres Cal Quantrill has an 0-3 TSR his last three starts with an 11.15 ERA and 1.76 WHIP. Despite the injuries, if the Cubs can't win this one, then there's some real trouble in Wrigleyville as several teams are hot on their heels for that final Wild Card spot. San Diego is 14-33 as a home underdog of +125 to +175 the last three seasons. Play on CHICAGO CUBS

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