Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-08-20 | Saints v. Bucs OVER 50.5 | Top | 38-3 | Loss | -105 | 46 h 43 m | Show |
THis is an 8* on the OVER We had the Over when these teams met in Week 1 and had the Over in both of their games last week. All three Over bets were victorious. The Over is 7-0 in Saints games for the year. Given that, this number is way too low. Last week was the first Saints game this season where 50 combined points were scored. It was 49 and that was against an all defense/no offense team (the Bears). Saints games are averaging 57.5 points. Five of the seven have gotten to 57. Tom Brady and Tampa Bay are averaging 30.9 points/game. They are averaging 35.7 at home. It wasn’t their finest game Monday against the Giants. But that was on the road. The two weeks prior saw them score 45 (on the road) and 38. Also, look who’s back this week. New Orleans will welcome back WRs Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. Chris Godwin is expected to play for Tampa Bay and they just signed Antonio Brown. The Over is 17-5 in Tampa Bay’s last 22 games, so they’ve been an Over machine as well. The Over is 4-2 when Brees faces off with Brady. Play on OVER AAA |
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11-08-20 | Dolphins v. Cardinals -4.5 | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -110 | 125 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ARIZONA Two of the league’s surprises meet here as 4-3 Miami goes to 5-2 Arizona. Off their bye, the Dolphins beat the Rams last week 28-17. It was a nice win, but one that saw very little offense. With Tua Tagovailoa starting for the first time, the Dolphins offense gained just 145 total yards. They beat the Rams because they had a defensive touchdown, a punt return for touchdown and forced four turnovers, one of which led to a drive that started goal to go. It was the Rams that gained 471 yards. So Miami was outgained more than 3:1 and still won. The offense will have to be better this week against an Arizona team off its bye. Last we saw Kyler Murray, he was leading his team to an upset of Seattle two weeks ago. The Cardinals are the only team to beat the Seahawks. The offense has scored at least three touchdowns in 10 consecutive games. The defense ranks Top 10 against the pass, so look for Tua to have another rough day. The Dolphins have been favored in just one game all year, so its a real surprise they have a winning record. Play on ARIZONA AAA |
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11-08-20 | Seahawks -2.5 v. Bills | Top | 34-44 | Loss | -116 | 122 h 50 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SEATTLE (money line) This looks to be a good game on paper with the 6-1 Seahawks taking on the 6-2 Bills. But even though both lead their respective divisions, we feel one side is clearly better than the other. Buffalo has actually been pretty mediocre in spite of its good record. They were a bit lucky to get by the Patriots last week as a 24-21 win needed a late Cam Newton fumble. It was the Bills’ 5th win by one score this season. Seattle, it could be argued, is in discussion for the league’s best team. They’re only loss this year came in overtime. They too have some close wins, but they’ve also scored at least 31 points in all but one game. Russell Wilson is on pace for what would be a record-setting season of 4900 yards passing and 600 yards rushing. His two leading receivers - Metcalf and Lockett - both already have 500+ yards and seven touchdowns! The defense has its issues, but Jamal Adams is set to come back. Buffalo has failed to cover four in a row. Seattle is 12-4-2 ATS in its last 18 games with a spread of three points or less. Plus they are 11-4-1 ATS L16 on the road. They will win this game. Play on SEATTLE (MONEYLINE) AAA |
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11-08-20 | Panthers v. Chiefs OVER 52.5 | Top | 31-33 | Win | 100 | 122 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 9* on the OVER Carolina-Kansas City is one of eight games on the Week 9 slate with a total of 50 or higher, matching a season-high. It’s a game that should end up even higher scoring than expected. The Chiefs offense, led by Patrick Mahomes, certainly needs no introduction.They are putting up 31.6 points/game. The last two games have seen them score 43 and 35. Mahomes has a 21-1 TD-INT ratio and COULD get Sammy Watkins back this week after the WR missed the last three games. With or without Watkins KC is gonna score on the Panthers defense which often fails to generate a lot of pressure. Carolina’s offense could be better, but the potential return of Christian McCaffrey would be the *chefs kiss* in going against a Chiefs defense giving up a ton of rush yards every week (29th in yards allowed). Like Watkins, McCaffrey’s possible return should just be treated as a “bonus.” We like the Over even if neither returns this week. The Over is on a 23-11 run when Carolina is a road underdog. Play on OVER AAA |
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11-08-20 | Texans -6.5 v. Jaguars | Top | 27-25 | Loss | -110 | 122 h 49 m | Show |
This is an 8* on HOUSTON Houston has just one win in 2020. It was against Jacksonville. That’s who the Texans face again this week. This time the Jaguars will be starting a rookie quarterback named Jake Luton, a sixth round choice out of Oregon State. The Jags have lost their last six games and haven’t covered the spread in any of the last five. This is one of the worst teams in the league. Houston hasn’t played well and has the same 1-6 SU record as well as being 1-6 against the spread. But they have more talent than Jacksonville. Who would you rather have - Luton or DeShaun Watson? Watson is undefeated in five career starts vs. the Jaguars. It was 30-14 earlier this year as the Texans offense put up a season-most 487 yards. The Jaguars are 28th in rushing yards allowed. They’ve also given up 30 or more points in six straight games. The Texans are 11-2 L13 vs. Jacksonville and 16-4 L20. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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11-07-20 | South Alabama v. Coastal Carolina -18 | Top | 6-23 | Loss | -109 | 106 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* on COASTAL CAROLINA Coastal Carolina is 6-0 and we had them last week when they absolutely bludgeoned Georgia State 51-0. QB Grayson McCall returned (from an injury) and threw for four touchdowns and ran for another. The Chanticleers are now the #15 ranked team in the country. After being a short favorite each of the last two weeks, they turn around to host a South Alabama team that simply isn’t on the same level. The Jaguars started their campaign with an upset of Southern Miss on the road. But the only road game they’ve played since was a 24-17 loss at Georgia Southern last Thursday. The win against Southern Miss, not a good team by the way, is the Jaguars only road win in their last 15 tries. Let’s not forget they are 2-22 SU the last 24 games as an underdog. Coastal Carolina has covered every game but one this year. They’ve won five straight against the Sun Belt and already beaten some of the conference’s best this year. Certainly, they should have little difficulty winning Saturday. Play on COASTAL CAROLINA AAA |
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11-07-20 | Clemson v. Notre Dame OVER 51.5 | Top | 40-47 | Win | 100 | 106 h 32 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER Clemson vs. Notre Dame has lost some of its luster with Trevor Lawrence not playing (COVID). But it’s still a top five matchup that should be plenty of fun. D.J. Uiagalelei is Lawrence’s backup. Clemson still put up 34 last week in his first start. We realize this is a tougher defense than Boston College and the true freshman’s first road start. But don’t fool yourself into thinking the Tigers aren’t going to put up a decent number here. Uiagalelei threw for 342 yards and two scores last week. Travis Etienne is the ACC’s all-time leading rusher. Notre Dame’s defensive numbers, somewhat, are a byproduct of facing a string of bad offensive teams. But Clemson’s cause is done no favors by the injuries on their defensive side. Notre Dame is averaging almost 35 points/game. Ian Book is a really good QB and the Fighting Irish are going to score more than most previous Clemson opponents. Play on OVER AAA |
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11-07-20 | Baylor v. Iowa State UNDER 48.5 | Top | 31-38 | Loss | -110 | 105 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 9* on UNDER Baylor was down 30-0 last week (at home!) to TCU last week before it decided to wake up and “start playing.” By then, it was obviously too late and they still ended up losing 33-23. Now the Bears go to Ames to face Iowa State, who won 52-22 last week against Kansas. The Cyclones just barely covered the spread in that one, scoring a late TD to push them over the four TD threshold (spread). They aren’t scoring that many this week. Not even close. Kansas is the worst defensive team in the Big 12. On the bright side, ISU isn’t likely to give up that many either. Baylor has averaged 20.0 points/game the last three weeks, all losses. They haven’t scored more than 23 against anyone besides Kansas. They can’t run the ball (75 or less rush yards in all three games). Under is 31-16-2 in the past 53 games where Iowa State is the favorite. It’s also 5-0-1 the last six times they’ve been off a win by 20 or more points. 9-1-1 after a game where they scored 40 or more points. Baylor is 6-1-1 Under off a SU loss. Under is 4-1 last five meetings. Play on UNDER AAA |
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11-07-20 | Florida +3.5 v. Georgia | Top | 44-28 | Win | 100 | 102 h 44 m | Show |
This is an 8* on FLORIDA We’ve got a showdown in the SEC East this weekend with Florida taking on Georgia in what we can safely say will NOT be a “Cocktail Party.” Florida lost earlier this year to Texas A&M, but losing by three on the road to that opponent shouldn’t be considered bad at all. It was considered “bad” at the time, only because Florida was favored and in hindsight they should not have been. (A&M was off a bad loss to Alabama and hadn’t really looked good). But after a two-week hiatus (COVID), the Gators responded with a 41-17 thumping of Mizzou last week. Now they are underdogs for the 1st time. Their offense has been fantastic so far, scoring at least 38 in every game. QB Trask has at least 4 TD passes in every game as well. Remember that Georgia’s defense gave up 41 to Alabama and is now banged up minus star safety LeCounte and DL Rochester. Georgia’s QB Stetson Bennett has not looked all that impressive. Give us the better offensive team taking points. The Dawgs have scored just 38 points total the last two games. Play on FLORIDA AAA |
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11-07-20 | Texas Tech v. TCU -8 | Top | 18-34 | Win | 100 | 102 h 38 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TCU TCU got their act together in a 33-23 win against Baylor last Saturday. Now they return to Fort Worth to play a Texas Tech that hasn’t really been able to get it together all season. The Red Raiders just gave up 62 points in a loss to Oklahoma last week. It was their second time losing while giving up 60+ this season. Their only Big 12 win was against West Virginia, a game where they got outgained by nearly 100 yards. But a late defensive TD put them over the top there. The only other win this season was against FCS Houston Baptist and even then they allowed 600 yards and had to fend off a late 2-point try. TCU is 2-0 on the road, but 0-3 at home. It's just a matter of time until they rectify that discrepancy. The Horned Frogs were up 30-0 last week on Baylor. Meanwhile, Texas Tech gave up 48 in the first half to Oklahoma. These are teams going in opposite directions. The Red Raiders are 2-8 ATS L10 road games. Play on TCU AAA |
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11-07-20 | Liberty +15 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 98 h 4 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LIBERTY You may not know it, but Liberty has one of the best records in the country. The 25th ranked Flames are 5-0, though they haven’t really beaten anyone of substance. The expectation this week is clearly that they’ll suffer their first loss. But might the oddsmakers be writing them off too much? We think so. While this is the first time since 2002 that a team at 5-0 or better has been a double digit dog to a team with two or more losses, that last instance saw the underdog (Notre Dame) pull an outright upset. Liberty averages 40 points/game, so it’s going to be hard for Virginia Tech to score enough to cover the number in this one. Sure, the Hokies will probably hold the Flames under their season scoring average, but they are still going to have to score a lot of points. Liberty is going to put up a fair number here as Va Tech has allowed at least 31 points in half of its games. The Hokies gave up almost 550 total yards last week to Louisville. They allowed well over 600 to North Carolina. Liberty may not be UNC but they are good enough to cover the spot. Play on LIBERTY AAA |
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11-07-20 | West Virginia v. Texas -6.5 | Top | 13-17 | Loss | -107 | 98 h 4 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TEXAS Texas was overrated at the start of the season, but now we’re getting a pretty good value on the Longhorns as they prepare to host West Virginia this Saturday. The ‘Horns have lost twice but easily could have won both of those games. The Oklahoma game went to four overtimes while the TCU game saw UT fumble at the goal line. Now UT has won twice in overtime so far, including last week’s 41-34 upset of Oklahoma State. But we don’t think you can trust a WVU side that has lost both of its road games thus far. The Mountaineers are off their best win so far, 37-10 over Kansas State, but the Wildcats were playing with a backup QB. Texas went to Morgantown last year and won easily, 42-31. Based on that, you’d think they should easily win in Austin. QB Sam Ehlinger hasn’t played as well as some would hope, but the Longhorns offense still averages 44.3 points/game, which is 10th best in the entire country right now. WVU just isn’t very good on the road and getting this number on the “right side” of 7 seems ideal. Play on TEXAS AAA |
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11-06-20 | BYU v. Boise State +3 | Top | 51-17 | Loss | -105 | 84 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BOISE STATE Undefeated BYU (7-0) is set for its toughest test of 2020 when they hit the blue turf in Boise Friday night. Boise State is also undefeated, although just 2-0 (both straight up and against the spread). BYU is 6-1 ATS but it’s really important to look at who they’ve played. Other than Houston, most of the opponents can be found near the bottom of the FBS power rankings. They have been a two touchdown favorite (or more) in five games and a 24 (or more) point favorite in four games. The last two weeks they were favored by 29 and 30.5 points at home vs. Texas State and Western Kentucky. Boise State is the best team they will play all season. The Broncos are not used to being home underdogs. This is only the second time it’s happened in the regular season in the last 15 years. The other time was two years ago vs. Fresno State and they won that game outright, 24-17, getting 2.5 points. Not only is this a chance for Boise State to knock off a 7-0 team, it’s a revenge spot too. BYU gave them their only regular season loss last year 28-25 in Provo. The Cougars are 0-5 all-time here in Boise though. Play on BOISE STATE AAA |
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11-05-20 | Packers -4 v. 49ers | Top | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 57 h 10 m | Show |
This is an 8* on GREEN BAY This is a significant revenge game on the Green Bay side. They lost twice to San Francisco last season. Neither game was really competitive either with final scores of 37-8 and 37-20. But it will be a much different 49ers team they face Thursday night. It won’t at all resemble the 2019 version. Really, it’s going to be quite the “skeleton crew.” Not only are there injuries to QB Garoppolo and TE Kittle, but the team is now dealing with a COVID outbreak that claimed the likes of WR Aiyuk (who had been playing well) and OL Trent Williams. The 49ers just don’t have much to offer here on a short week. The Packers won’t have much sympathy though. Coming out of a 28-22 loss to the Vikings last week, they know they can’t afford to lose this game. Wouldn’t you know the Packers are a perfect 6-0 ATS off their previous six losses. We took them in this exact spot against Houston two weeks ago, a game they won 35-20. They may be thin at running back, but Aaron Rodgers is still taking snaps and this offense put up 400+ yards in a loss last week. Don’t see Green Bay losing for a third time in four weeks as a favorite. Play on GREEN BAY AAA |
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11-05-20 | Utah State v. Nevada -15.5 | Top | 9-34 | Win | 100 | 57 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NEVADA Nevada should run wild in this Thursday night matchup. They are 2-0 and up against a Utah State team that hasn’t been able to stop anyone so far. The winless Aggies are allowing 40 points/game. Nevada has scored 37 points in both of its wins. The Wolf Pack defense should also get a chance to “show off” Thursday as the Utah State offense has only been able to manage 20 points in two games. Nevada is a team that has been able to cover six of its last seven games (going back to last season) including both so far in 2020. They are led by QB Strong who is completing 75% of his passes with zero interceptions. He has 770 yards passing in two games. Last week vs. UNLV, Strong and this Nevada offense gained 9.2 yards/play! The Wolf Pack have revenge for a 36-10 loss on the road to Utah State last season. That was a much stronger Utah State team, however. This year should be a Nevada blowout. Utah State is only 7-19 ATS its last 26 times as an underdog. Play on NEVADA AAA |
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11-04-20 | FC Dallas v. Nashville SC +126 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 34 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NASHVILLE Two clubs that have already qualified for the 2020 MLS Playoffs meet for a 4th time (this season) Wednesday. Nashville SC has certainly had FC Dallas’ number thus far, taking two of the three fixtures while the other ended in a draw. Furthermore, Nashville rolls into this meeting in top form. They have been beaten only one time in the last 10 matches. Even though they are on the back end of a 1-1 draw with the Chicago Fire, there is no reason to be alarmed. They’ve only let in six goals in the last 10 games and no more than one in any of the previous five. They’ve been one of the soundest defensive clubs in the entire MLS. Dallas comes off a 3-0 thumping of the Houston Dynamo in the Texas Derby, but shouldn’t expect that kind of scoring here. Nashville SC’s defensive solidarity combined with their past success against FC Dallas should have them back in the winners circle again Wednesday. Play on NASHVILLE SC AAA |
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11-04-20 | Ball State v. Miami-OH -2 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 33 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI OH In case you forgot, Miami won the MAC last year. They are on a 23-8 SU run in conference play and have won eight in a row at home, which is where they open the season. The RedHawks had a lead in every game in 2019 and will return a bulk of the players from that team. The season opens with Ball State visiting Oxford and Miami certainly remembers how it lost to the Cardinals in last year’s regular season finale. With the MAC East already clinched, they led 27-14 at halftime and decided to pull starters. From that point on, Ball State had a 17-1 edge in first downs and won 41-27. Ball State had plenty of offense last year, but also gave up 31.4 points/game. They did not have a good record in close games (while Miami did). Still, even if you think that was a case of “bad luck,” this line seems short given the offensive talent Miami returns. They are 8-2 ATS the L10 home games and 14-4 ATS L18 conference games. Play on MIAMI OHIO AAA |
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11-04-20 | Western Michigan v. Akron +18 | Top | 58-13 | Loss | -107 | 32 h 7 m | Show |
This is an 8* on AKRON Since going 13-1 in 2016 under PJ Fleck, Western Michigan has lost six games each of its three seasons under Tim Lester. The team was probably better than 7-6 a season ago, but the Broncos probably shouldn't be expected to win big Wednesday even though the opponent is Akron. The Zips did not win a single game in 2019 (0-12) under Tim Arth, but should be a lot more competitive this year. They are certainly more experienced. Kato Nelson is a good QB with a solid receiving corps to throw to. The defense has 11 of its top 16 tacklers back. Western Michigan is breaking in a new starting QB and RB. This most unusual offseason and the fact they open on the road have us believing the Broncos may struggle more than expected in this one. They are just 1-7 ATS their last eight road games and 1-5 ATS their last six times as a road favorite. Play on AKRON AAA |
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11-02-20 | Bucs v. Giants OVER 46.5 | Top | 25-23 | Win | 100 | 154 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Coming off a 45-point effort last week vs. Las Vegas and a 38-point effort the week before that (vs. Green Bay), Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay offense should be in for another big night Monday against the Giants. This Giants defense has struggled to defend the pass (21st in air yards allowed) even though they have already faced four backup quarterbacks! The Buccaneers are averaging 31.7 points/game for the year, so they’ll obviously do most of the scoring here. They are a huge favorite and for good reason. New York is already guaranteed to lose six of its first eight games for the fourth straight season. That’s the worst such active streak in the league right now. While the Giants don’t score much, they are averaging 17.4 points/game, which would be enough to help send this Over presuming Tampa Bay hits its own scoring average. The Buccaneers have allowed 20 or more points three of the last four games. The Over is 20-8 in the Bucs last 28 road games. Over is also 4-1 in the Giants’ last five as a road underdog. Play on OVER AAA |
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11-01-20 | Cowboys v. Eagles OVER 42.5 | Top | 9-23 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 58 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER All the focus is going to be on the Cowboys offense in this one with Ben Dinucci, a 7th round rookie, making his first start. But you can’t forget about how bad this Dallas defense has been in giving up an average of almost 35 points/game. That’s the most in the league and really notable considering how low this total is Sunday night. The Eagles have given up 30 or more points three times themselves. They give up 28.0 points/game. Carson Wentz has played better the last three weeks, a stretch which has seen Philadelphia average 26.3 points. They had over 400 yards last week despite scoring only 22 vs. the Giants. No Eagles game has seen less than 43 points scored. We know it may not have been the case last Thursday vs. the Giants (when we won with the Under) but two bad teams can easily produce a high-scoring game with mistakes. Don’t be surprised if there’s a defensive touchdown in this game. Over is 5-0 for Philly the past five times they’ve been off a game with 350+ total yards. Over is 7-2 for Dallas off a loss by 14 or more points. Play on OVER AAA |
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11-01-20 | Saints v. Bears OVER 45 | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 126 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 9* on OVER Taking the Bears Over may sound risky given that they didn’t score an offensive TD Monday night. But they are playing the Saints, who have gone Over in every game this season. As per usual, Drew Brees and the Saints offense are putting up a lot of points. They’ve scored at least 24 in every game and are averaging 30.0 per game. This is a very low total for a Saints game. Every single one of their games has seen at least 51 total points scored. The offensive production has come in spite of missing Michael Thomas most of the way. But Chicago does have a chance in this game and that’s because of the Saints defense, which is nowhere near as good as it was a year ago. That unit ranks near the bottom of the league in efficiency and has allowed six passes of 48+ yards the last four games. They’ve allowed the second most TD passes in the league, trailing only Atlanta. Nick Foles will make a couple big plays in this one. He threw an interception in the end zone last week. All we probably need from the Bears is 20-21 points and that’s basically what they are averaging this year (19.7). Play on OVER AAA |
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11-01-20 | 49ers v. Seahawks -3 | Top | 27-37 | Win | 100 | 126 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 7* on SEA Seattle lost last week, the first time all season that’s happened, but it took overtime. We don’t think this line should have dropped as far as it has, based on one loss. The Seahawks offense is still as good as any in the league. They’ll be facing a good 49ers defense here. But the issue for the Niners is their offense, which just won’t be able to keep up. Jimmy Garoppolo isn’t Kyler Murray, the quarterback that beat Seattle last week. The Seahawks defense is most susceptible to the pass, but we don’t see Garoppolo and the Niners taking full advantage of that. Despite the third shortest average pass distance, “Jimmy G” has the fifth highest interception rate since the start of last year. Making that many mistakes while playing it conservative is pretty rare. This is a home game for Seattle. They are 31-8 straight up the week after a loss and have covered 13 of the last 17 games with San Francisco. Play on SEATTLE AAA |
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11-01-20 | Chargers -3 v. Broncos | Top | 30-31 | Loss | -110 | 126 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LAC The Chargers didn’t win any division games last year. They appeared well on their way to winning one earlier this year when they led the Chiefs by 11 in the second half of Week 2. But they lost that game in overtime. Close losses have haunted this franchise in recent years but the Bolts left nothing to chance last week when they defeated Jacksonville 39-29. While just their second win of the season, we think it’s the start of what looks to be a favorable stretch for the team. They are 4-1-1 ATS and this week are in Denver to face a Broncos team that has scored more than 21 points in only one game all year and that was vs. the Jets. Justin Herbert may be a rookie, but he’s already surpassed Denver’s Drew Lock, who has the league’s third worst QBR over the past two weeks. Since the start of 2017, LA is 7-2-1 ATS as an away favorite. The Broncos lost by 27 last week and while that was to the Chiefs, they are now 0-3 at home with two of those losses by 18 or more. They also have the league’s second worst turnover differential, so be on the look out for that. Play on LA CHARGERS AAA |
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11-01-20 | Titans -5.5 v. Bengals | Top | 20-31 | Loss | -109 | 123 h 59 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TEN Tennessee is off its first loss of the season, but it came by just three points (27-24) to a team that also came into last week unbeaten (Pittsburgh). The Titans are 16-7-2 ATS the past 25 times they’ve been off a loss. Our expectation here is they are going to put up a lot of points on a Cincinnati team that always seems to be close, but can’t get over the hump. The Bengals’ record is 1-5-1 after a 37-34 home loss to Cleveland last week where they gave up the game winning touchdown late. It was their fourth loss by five points or fewer this season. While the Bengals are 5-1 ATS the last 6 weeks (only loss to Baltimore), one of the league’s worst defenses is really going to struggle to contain Ryan Tannehill and a very good Titans offense that is averaging 36 points/game over the last three weeks. The Cincinnati offensive line does not do a good job at protecting rookie Joe Burrow and he figures to be running for his life in this one. The Bengals have allowed the most sacks in the league while the Titans lead in takeaways. The Bengals defense is now worse after trading its best pass rusher, Carlos Dunlap. Play on TENNESSEE AAA |
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10-31-20 | Anderson Silva +200 v. Uriah Hall | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 7* on A. SILVA Last week we perhaps bid adieu to one of the all-time greats in the history of the sport. Khabib Nurmagomedov unexpectedly said “goodbye” to the Octagon (for now?) after making quick work of Justin Gaethje. Here, we know Anderson Silva is at the end of the line, but we’re looking for the fairy tale ending against Uriah Hall. Silver has not finished an opponent since 2012. Since then, he’s a poor 1-6 with one no contest. But we see Hall lacking the killer instinct in this fight. Silva does have the edge in striking accuracy as well as tighter defense. He may need to “get lucky” here, but we’ll be rooting for him as we make a rare play on a big ML underdog. Play on ANDERSON SILVA AAA |
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10-31-20 | Andre Fili v. Bryce Mitchell -123 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 25 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 9* on MITCHELL The unbeaten Bryce Mitchell (13-0) steps back into the Octagon Saturday night to take on Andre Fili, who has only been able to alternate wins and losses throughout his eight fights for the UFC. While three of Mitchell’s four UFC wins have come by a decision, he did have one thrilling submission victory and nearly repeated that result his last time out. He typically comes out like a house of fire and he’ll be wearing his camouflage shorts! Fili has just one finish over his last nine fights, so Mitchell seems safe there. It seems as if everyone is expecting a thrilling three round fight between these two featherweights, however don’t be surprised if Mitchell simply overwhelms his opponent and finishes this early. Play on MITCHELL AAA |
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10-31-20 | Maurice Greene v. Greg Hardy OVER 1.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -117 | 25 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 9* on OVER 1.5 ROUNDS We think this fight between former NFL player Greg Hardy and Maurice Greene will go longer than expected. To be clear, it only needs to get past the halfway mark of the second round for this bet to be a winner. Early in his MMA career, Hardy’s fights were all predictably short. But the last three have all gone the distance. Greene’s last two fights have gone long enough where this Over bet would have cashed. Neither fighter is all that talented, so look for a sloppy fight where neither man is able to finish. Incredibly, neither of these guys have ever landed a single takedown! That makes for a very one-dimension style bout that will be entirely contested standing. Unless one of them gets lucky early, this probably goes to the judges. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-31-20 | LSU -2.5 v. Auburn | Top | 11-48 | Loss | -118 | 101 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LSU LSU is still being penalized for its two early season losses. The defensive showings vs. Mississippi State and Missouri were definitely both bad, but let’s not forget the extenuating circumstances of that game vs. Mizzou, which was moved from Baton Rouge to Columbia because of the hurricane. Even without starting QB Myles Brennan, the Tigers looked great last week in demolishing South Carolina 52-24. That performance was closer to what you should expect from the Tigers as opposed to those two losses. LSU definitely can score no matter who the QB is. Freshman TJ Finley looked great last week, so if he’s called on again, we expect him to answer the bell. The Tigers are averaging 42.0 points/game and have scored at least 41 each of the last three games. Auburn has not been impressive so far as they are lucky to even be 3-2. They could have easily lost games vs. Arkansas and Ole Miss and have been outgained on the season. QB Bo Nix is inconsistent and will be facing a defense that has already forced 10 turnovers in four games. Auburn has zero turnovers in its three wins, but we are expecting them to give it away multiple times here. Play on LSU AAA |
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10-31-20 | Rice v. Southern Miss UNDER 58.5 | Top | 30-6 | Win | 100 | 100 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 9* on UNDER Southern Miss is now on to its THIRD head coach of the season, which should tell you all you need to know about the season they are having. The Golden Eagles are now 1-4 and the 56 points allowed to Liberty last week wasn’t even a season-worst. (They allowed 66 to Tulane). Rice is 0-1 after its now famous “quadruple doink” (missed FG) against Middle Tennessee last week. They lost 40-34 in overtime. But despite that score and how many points Southern Miss has been allowing, we think this game stays Under. For Rice, last week was the most total points in any game since 2017. Their defense was actually quite good in 2019 as it yielded an average of just 24 PPG in conference play. Some key absences in the secondary last week led to a worse than expected performance on third down. They should do better this week against a Southern Miss team that is in tatters. While Southern Miss has given up at least 31 points in every game, we’re not sure Rice gets there this week. The Under is 7-3 for Rice the week following an ATS loss. Southern Miss is actually favored here and the Under is 7-2 the last nine times that’s been the case at home. Play on UNDER AAA |
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10-31-20 | Coastal Carolina -2.5 v. Georgia State | Top | 51-0 | Win | 100 | 97 h 55 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CC #20 Coastal Carolina stayed unbeaten last week with a 28-14 win over Georgia Southern. The defense certainly did its job in shutting the Eagles out in the second half while holding them to just 218 total yards for the game. The Chanticleers won despite not having QB Grayson McCall. You’ll want to note that his backup, Fred Payton, threw three touchdown passes last week. That’s really not too surprising as Payton has started 10 games over the previous two seasons. Coach Jamey Chadwell is “cautiously optimistic” that McCall will return this week, but either way we’re in on the Chanticleers to get the victory over Georgia State. The Panthers have lost 7 of 10 to teams with winning records and already have suffered close losses to Louisiana and Arkansas State this season. They were also outgained 447-379 by Troy last week in a 36-34 win. The defense has given up nearly 1,000 passing yards its last two games! The offense is missing a starting receiver. Georgia State has never beaten a ranked team before while CC has won 5 of its last 6 games where the line is three points or less. Play on COASTAL CAROLINA AAA |
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10-31-20 | Temple +4.5 v. Tulane | Top | 3-38 | Loss | -110 | 97 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TEMPLE Tulane is just 2-4 thus far so we don’t think they are a very strong candidate to be laying points right now. They have blown big leads in two of those losses, to Navy and Houston, but also had a big rally of their own to defeat South Alabama. Half of their games have been decided by a field goal. They’ve also lost three in a row, two of those coming by at least 17 points. The defense is giving up a lot of points, 35.3 per game to be exact, so Temple should be able to score enough to stay within the number this week. Now the Owls could easily be 0-3 if not for their own rally vs. South Florida. But they only lost by two at Navy and then were more competitive than the scoreboard showed vs. Memphis last week. They had the yardage edge and more first downs. They actually gained 500 yards for the game. The problem was they turned the ball over four times. We mentioned the Tulane defense is giving up a lot of points. Well, they are also giving up lots of yards. Over the last three games, they’ve allowed 1,746 total yards! They gave up 689 to UCF last week. This is a game where you’ll want to take the points. Play on TEMPLE AAA |
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10-31-20 | Purdue -6.5 v. Illinois | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 97 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* on PURDUE Purdue opened its season with a bit of an upset. They beat Iowa 24-20 as a 3.5-point home dog, scoring a late TD to get the win. Consider that they were without their best player (WR Rondale Moore) and head coach Jeff Brohm due to COVID-19. While it remains unclear if Moore is going to be back this week, Brohm is planning on being back on the sidelines. The Boilermakers certainly have enough pieces to dominate lowly Illinois, who lost 45-7 to Wisconsin last week. The only Illini touchdown came from the defense and now they go up against a team that allowed just three points in the second half last week. This is also a revenge game for Purdue as they shockingly lost to Illinois, 24-6, last season. They haven’t beaten the Boilermakers back to back years since 2001-02. Not only was the offense non-existent for the Illini last week, the defense was also bad. They forced just one incompletion on 21 attempts! Play on PURDUE AAA |
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10-30-20 | Hawaii -1.5 v. Wyoming | Top | 7-31 | Loss | -109 | 83 h 41 m | Show |
This is an 8* on HAWAII It feels good to have LATE night action during the week, thanks to the Mountain West getting its season underway. Hawaii will be looking to start 2-0 while Wyoming is hoping to avoid 0-2. Hawaii won 34-19 last week over Fresno State, really running over the Bulldogs defense. Not only did they run for over six yards per carry, but the Warriors finished the game with 323 yards rushing and 552 yards total! Stopping the run wasn’t an issue for the Wyoming defense last week, but it did allow 420 yards passing as it fell 37-34 in overtime at Nevada, a game they closed as 2.5-point favorites. It is important to note that the Cowboys only lead in that game came in overtime when they kicked a field goal after the first possession. They quickly gave up the game-winning touchdown not long after. At one point, Wyoming was down as much as 22 points. But the big news coming out of the game was the leg injury to QB Sean Chambers that probably will cause him to miss the rest of the season. Remember that Hawaii won 10 games last year and appeared in the Conference Title Game. Todd Graham takes over for Nick Rolovich (who went to Washington State) and should do well here. We know they came back last week, but losing Chambers is a huge blow to Wyoming’s season. Play on HAWAII AAA |
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10-29-20 | Colorado State -1.5 v. Fresno State | Top | 17-38 | Loss | -109 | 59 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* on Colo State So Colorado State did not play last week. Fresno State did. The reason for that discrepancy is that CSU’s game at New Mexico was waved off due to COVID. Fresno State probably wishes it had not played as they were a 34-19 loser to Hawaii. The Bulldogs actually took an early 7-0 lead in the game, scoring soon after a Hawaii turnover. But it was their own turnovers (four of them) that proved costly. Plus the defense was terrible, giving up 552 yards, 323 of which came on the ground. Both these Mountain West teams are breaking in first year coaches. Kalen DeBoer is already 0-1 for FSU, Steve Addazio is now looking to avoid the same start in Fort Collins. The Rams won this game last year, 41-31, despite being a 13.5-point underdog. That was right here in Fresno. CSU has now beaten Fresno State three years in a row, scoring 34 or more points every time. The Rams have covered five in a row as favorites, which they are here thanks to a line move. They are also 8-2 ATS L10 Thursday games. Play on COLORADO STATE AAA |
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10-29-20 | Falcons v. Panthers -2.5 | Top | 25-17 | Loss | -120 | 85 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 10* on CAROLINA Atlanta is a sinking ship right now, playing for a lame duck interim coach. It almost seems as if they invent new ways to blow games. They have blown fourth quarter leads in half of their six losses. The most recent being last week against Detroit where had Todd Gurley simply NOT scored a touchdown with 1:04 left, they could have kicked a game winning field goal with no time left. Instead, Gurley did score and that gave the Lions the ball back. They drove 75 yards down the field in 64 seconds and won the game 23-22. Now one loss where the Falcons did not blow a fourth quarter lead was against Carolina three weeks ago. They trailed in that one pretty much throughout and the 23-16 loss ended up getting Dan Quinn fired. We look for the Panthers to pull off the season sweep Thursday night. This time, they are likely to have Christian McCaffery in the lineup. In three road games, the Atlanta defense has yielded an average of 31.0 points/game. They are now on an 8-21 ATS slide in the month of October. Play on CAROLINA AAA |
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10-27-20 | Rays +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -160 | 26 h 39 m | Show |
This is an 10* on TAMPA BAY +1.5 The Dodgers treated us nicely in Game 5, winning 4-2 as our *10* Game of the Year. But with the Rays now facing a must-win situation, we’re now going to throw our support behind them in Game 6. The main reason being not that they are facing elimination, but rather it’s the same starting pitching matchup that treated them so well in Game 2. It was a 1st inning Brandon Lowe HR off Tony Gonsolin that set the tone in Game 2. The Rays went on to win 6-4. Gonsolin hasn’t been good in the playoffs, posting a 9.39 ERA in just 7 ⅔ innings. He lasted for just four outs in Game 2. Blake Snell has never gone a full six innings for the Rays this season, but he doesn’t have to with the bullpen being as good as it is. Snell no-hit the Dodgers for the first four innings (not an easy feat) of Game 2. Tampa Bay is 20-8 off a loss this season and 11-2 when playing with a day off. We believe they will do no worse than a 1-run loss here. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA |
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10-26-20 | Bears v. Rams -5.5 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 156 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LAR Chicago has been a clear overachiever to this point. In four of their five wins, they’ve gone off as the underdog. An outright win Monday night would match a record with five upsets wins in the first seven games. We don’t see that happening though. The Rams are off a loss at San Francisco where they went off as a three-point favorite. We took the 49ers in that one, feeling the line had moved too much. No such movement this week and we’re comfortable laying points with a team that is 14-8-1 ATS under Sean McVay when laying five or more points. The Rams are also 4-1 ATS the past five as a home favorite. One more trend in their favor is that they are 5-1 ATS off their last six straight up losses. The Bears offense just doesn’t do much. The defense has been bailing them out thus far, however the task will be too tall here as the Rams defense is giving up just 19.0 points/game. In two home games, they’ve allowed just 26 points. They beat the Bears 17-7 last year. Play on LA RAMS AAA |
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10-25-20 | Seahawks -3 v. Cardinals | Top | 34-37 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SEATTLE Arizona may have looked good last Monday (we had them!), but this is not a good situation to be facing the undefeated Seahawks. The Cardinals are working on a short week here. Seattle is off a bye. The Seahawks will not play the same kind of mistake-filled football Arizona saw in Dallas Monday night. Russell Wilson is having an MVP-caliber season right now. His team has covered seven straight when playing with AT LEAST seven days rest. They are 3-0 ATS the last three seasons off their bye. The Seahawks’ offense is averaging nearly 34 points per game and almost 7.0 yards per play! Remember that the Cardinals have lost to the likes of the Lions and Panthers, the former coming right here at home. The four teams they’ve beaten - San Francisco, Washington, the Jets and Dallas - aren’t exactly off to great starts. Excluding the 49ers, the other three teams Arizona has beaten are a combined 3-15 SU. They are not in the Seahawks league … yet. Play on SEATTLE AAA |
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10-25-20 | Dodgers -155 v. Rays | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LA DODGERS The Dodgers were one out away from taking a 3-1 lead in the World Series and making this an elimination game for the Rays. By now, we all know that is not what happened. A dramatic 2-out single in the bottom of the ninth by Brett Phillips, which led to the Dodgers making TWO errors on the play, resulted in an 8-7 win for Tampa Bay and now we’re knotted at two games apiece. We expect Los Angeles to bounce back though as they send out Game 1 winner Clayton Kershaw to the mound tonight. Kershaw was masterful in Game 1, allowing just one run on two hits over six innings. He now has a 2.38 ERA and 0.84 WHIP this season and the Dodgers have won 11 of his 14 starts. Kershaw will again be opposed by Tyler Glasnow in Game 5, same as he was in Game 1. Glasnow was left in too long by Rays manager Kevin Cash in Game 1, which led to much deliberation, as he threw more pitches than any Rays starter has in any game this season. Glasnow has not made it a full six innings in any start this year and walked six batters in Game 1. How much mileage Cash can get out of his bullpen tonight, based on usage last night, is up for debate. What we do know is the Rays offense remains entirely too dependent on the home run ball. The Dodgers are 17-5 off a loss this year. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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10-25-20 | Jaguars v. Chargers OVER 49 | Top | 29-39 | Win | 100 | 127 h 20 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER The Chargers are 1-4 but as is usually the case, they’re losing close. All four losses have been by seven points or less, three of them coming against the Chiefs, Saints and Bucs. Two of those three were in overtime! They are off a bye here and facing a Jaguars team that also has just one win, but has been a lot less competitive in doing so. Jacksonville lost 34-16 at home to Detroit last week, making it five straight games they’ve allowed 30 or more points. All five have been losses. The Chargers offense scored 31 and 27 against Tampa Bay and New Orleans as rookie QB Justin Herbert continues to perform better than expected. He very well could be in for his best day as a pro this week. He might have to be, seeing as the Chargers defense has given up 38 and 30 points in those last two games. Jacksonville’s Gardner Minshew has attempted 40 or more passes in each of the last five games. The Over is 7-3 in the Jags previous 10 conference games. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-25-20 | Bucs -2.5 v. Raiders | Top | 45-20 | Win | 100 | 127 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 9* on TB Not sure how bumping this game UP helps the Raiders, who have had to place their entire starting offensive linemen on the COVID-19 list! We liked Tampa Bay BEFORE the unfortunate news hit Las Vegas’ ranks and now this sets up to be an even better spot to take the Bucs. They should overwhelm the Raiders up front. Honestly, the Raiders were going to struggle in pass protection even with their normal starting offensive line. Tampa Bay’s defense is #1 in the league in stopping the run and total yards allowed. They’ve got the second most sacks with 22. Just last week we saw the Bucs beat a previously unbeaten Green Bay team by four touchdowns. Since losing at New Orleans in Week 1, TB has gone 4-1 with that one loss coming by a single point on a Thursday night game. (They probably should have beaten Chicago too). Tom Brady is 21-12 ATS L33 as a road favorite. The Bucs have quietly scored the second most points in the league, are fully healthy on offense and are facing a defense that has given up 30 or more points in four of its five games. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA |
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10-25-20 | Panthers v. Saints -6.5 | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -110 | 164 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NO New Orleans is dealing with injuries at receiver, but not having Michael Thomas for most of their games hasn’t slowed them down thus far. They’ve scored 30 or more in all but one game this season. So even with Emmanuel Sanders set to be out, we still think the Saints will find a way to put up enough points on the Panthers this week. Look for the offense to lean on Alvin Kamara, who has four straight games of 100+ total yards and has way more receiving yardage than any other back in the league. Remember the Saints are off a bye here, so they’ve had two weeks to prepare for a Panthers team that is starting Teddy Bridgewater at QB. Bridgewater started five games for the Saints last year, so they know him well. Though only 3-2 straight up to this point, October is when the Saints get hot. They are 15-2 ATS in the month of October since 2016, which is the best record in the league over that span. They’ve also covered 21 of the last 31 division games. Carolina didn’t look very good against Chicago last week and has topped 23 points in just two games, both times at home. Play on NEW ORLEANS AAA |
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10-25-20 | Lions v. Falcons -2.5 | Top | 23-22 | Loss | -114 | 124 h 56 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ATL Atlanta finally won a game! They beat Minnesota last week, handily, 40-23 as a 4-point road underdog. That was the first game since firing Dan Quinn. Interim Raheem Morris now looks to make it two in a row as the Falcons are set to host Detroit this week. The Lions are similar to the Birds in that they too are off a win and probably should have a better record. The Lions have led in all five of their games including by double digits in all three losses! But Atlanta can top that as they held double digit 4th quarter leads in two of its losses. Detroit was off a bye facing Jacksonville last week, so that helped. The last time they won two straight games was when they started 2-0-1 last year. Since then, they’ve won just three of 18 games. They are 3-9 ATS their last 12 games as an underdog. The Lions’ defense is 4th worst in the league right now so look for Falcons RB Todd Gurley to potentially have a repeat of his performance two weeks ago when he went for 121 yards on 14 touches. Atlanta will win its first home game of the season. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
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10-25-20 | Packers -3 v. Texans | Top | 35-20 | Win | 100 | 124 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 6* on GB Green Bay suffered its first loss of the season last week and it came in humiliating fashion, 38-10 at Tampa Bay. But despite giving up 38 unanswered points, the Packers were not necessarily dominated to the degree that you might think. Two Aaron Rodgers’ interceptions, one of which was returned for a TD, really swung that game in the Buccaneers’ direction. Prior to last week’s loss, GB hadn’t turned the ball over once all year. The offense scored 30+ points in each of the first four weeks. Now they’ll face a Texans defense that is in tatters after giving away the lead late last week and losing in overtime to Tennessee. Other than Jacksonville, all of Houston’s opponents have scored at least 28 points. The Texans are 30th in total yards allowed and last against the run. They’ve also allowed 13 passing TDs in six games. So Rodgers should have a nice bounce back game here. He’s already 5-0 ATS off his previous five losses. Houston has not covered (0-4 ATS) as an underdog this season. The Packers are 8-2 ATS L10 vs. AFC teams. Play on GREEN BAY AAA |
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10-24-20 | Justin Gaethje v. Khabib Nurmagomedov UNDER 4.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 19 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER Despite being a pretty big underdog for this unification bout, Gaethje does have a path to victory, which is something you can’t say about virtually any of Nurmagomedov’s previous 28 opponents (all of whom have lost). Gaethje is not only a great striker, but possesses tremendous takedown defense. He will be the first former D-1 NCAA wrestler that Nurmagomedov has had to face. Gaethje has only been taken down twice in his entire UFC career. Nurmagomedov almost always gets his opponent down to the mat. The problem for Gaethje is he’s never dealt with the kind of grappler Nurmagomedov is. (Few have, except those who have faced him). Gaethje’s preferred chance here is to keep the fight standing and hopefully deliver one fatal blow. Almost all of his wins have come by TKO/submission, so there is that. But the more likely outcome is Nurmagomedov eventually does get Gaethje down and ends it as per usual. Regardless, this fight will end before the 5th round expires. Play on UNDER AAA |
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10-24-20 | Jared Cannonier -106 v. Robert Whittaker | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -106 | 18 h 20 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CANNONIER A lot is on the line here for Cannonier (13-4) as a win would likely put him in line for a shot at Middleweight Champ Israel Adesanya. It’s been a bit of a shocking rise for the native Alaskan. Cannonier actually began his UFC career as a heavyweight, but has since dropped down TWO classes and finally found success at 185 lbs. He’s won three straight fights, all by TKO, none of them reaching the six minute mark. Whittaker (21-5) has taken a different path to middleweight as he actually moved UP a class after struggling as a welterweight. He too found success at 185, even claiming the division’s title, but that was a while ago and Whittaker’s only 2020 fight (a decision win over Darren Till) wasn’t all that impressive. The bottom line here is that he’s going to be at an extreme size disadvantage and we don’t see how he can successfully counteract that. Play on CANNONIER AAA |
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10-24-20 | Georgia State v. Troy -2.5 | Top | 36-34 | Loss | -110 | 102 h 4 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TROY Troy is 3-1 with the three wins all coming against bad teams and the loss being to BYU. They shouldn’t have much trouble defeating a Georgia State team that is simply not very good on the road. The Panthers, now 1-2, gave up 59 points in a loss at Arkansas State last Thursday. It was their second “close” conference loss (also lost 34-31 to Louisiana in OT) but the bottom line is they are now just 2-11 SU L13 road games. We faded them at Arkansas State, noting GSU was listed as a home underdog against East Carolina several weeks ago. Though they did win that game 49-29, it says a lot when you’re an underdog at home to East Carolina. As mentioned at the outset of the analysis, Troy has handled its business as a favorite this year, winning all three times in that role. While they only beat Eastern Kentucky by two, the other two wins were by 33 and 20 points. Georgia State’s defense is allowing over 40 PPG so far and the team/coaching staff has been impacted by COVID-19. Can’t see them winning here. Play on TROY AAA |
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10-24-20 | Virginia Tech -9 v. Wake Forest | Top | 16-23 | Loss | -110 | 102 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* on VA TECH Virginia Tech is 3-1 and coming off an impressive 40-14 win over Boston College last Saturday night. The Hokies have scored 38 or more in every game this season. They now face a Wake Forest team that’s won two in a row after an 0-2 start. The Demon Deacons have put up 40 or more in three straight games themselves, but were also the clear beneficiaries of a +3 turnover margin in last week’s 40-23 upset of Virginia. The WF defense is going to have all sorts of problems stopping the run this weekend. They gave up 270 yards rushing to NC State and 218 more to Virginia. Led by Kansas transfer Khalil Herbert, Va Tech has run for at least 260 yards in every game. Wake has covered just once in its last six tries as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. They are also just 2-4 ATS coming off back to back wins. The only time that the Demon Deacons have beaten Va Tech in the last five meetings was an ugly 6-3 win back in 2014. The Hokies won 38-17 last season in Blacksburg and not enough has changed on the WF side to convince us this one will go much better. Lay the points! Play on VIRGINIA TECH AAA |
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10-24-20 | Florida Atlantic v. Marshall -16 | Top | 9-20 | Loss | -110 | 101 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 9* on MARSHALL Marshall, along with Arkansas, is one of two 4-0 ATS teams in the country. The Thundering Herd are also 4-0 straight up though and winning in convincing fashion. They’ve posted four double digit victories, the most recent being 35-17 over Louisiana Tech last weekend, while outgaining the opposition by an average of nearly 156 yards/game. We still don’t know a ton about this week’s opponent, Florida Atlantic, who has played just one game thus far. That one game was an uninspiring 21-17 win over Charlotte, which was at home and saw FAU get outgained by almost 100 yards. Marshall is 6-1 all-time vs. FAU with a 36-31 win last year in Boca Raton. The Herd come in averaging 37.3 points per contest and 213.8 yards rushing per game. The one game that FAU played was three weeks ago, so simple stuff like tackling on defense could be an issue for them. The Owls were actually down 21-7 at home in that game vs. Charlotte. Marshall is ranked and a pretty strong team at home. The defense allowed just 7 yards rushing last week and has given up only 38 points on the year! FAU is nowhere near as good as they were last year under Lane Kiffin. Play on MARSHALL AAA |
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10-24-20 | Auburn -3 v. Ole Miss | Top | 35-28 | Win | 100 | 98 h 5 m | Show |
This is an 8* on AUBURN Two SEC teams coming off misleading (and probably undeserved) losses last week meet here in Oxford. Auburn lost 30-23 to South Carolina last week, despite leading the whole first half and outgaining the Gamecocks 481-297 for the game. That loss dropped the Tigers to 2-2 and they’d be 1-3 if not for a lucky break against Arkansas. Speaking of Arkansas, Ole Miss’ result from last Saturday was even more misleading as they lost 33-21 to the Razorbacks despite having the edge in total yards. The Rebels turned it over SEVEN times, which was their undoing. In this battle of desperate teams, we like the visitors to walk away with the victory as Ole Miss is ranked last in the country in scoring defense, giving up 47 points/game. Auburn’s run game has gone for 259 and 209 yards the last two weeks behind back Tank Bigsby. That’s how we think they’ll control this one. Can’t see Gus Mahlzan’s team losing two in a row as favorites. Off an SEC loss, Auburn is 8-1 SU the last three seasons. They are also 33-11 all-time vs. Mississippi and won four straight years. Play on AUBURN AAA |
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10-24-20 | NC State +17.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 21-48 | Loss | -117 | 98 h 5 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NC STATE The “Mack Brown express” ran into a brick wall last weekend, losing 31-28 to 1-win Florida State as a 2 TD road favorite. North Carolina came into that game ranked #5 in the country, but obviously tumbled down the polls by losing to a team that had yet to beat a FBS opponent this season. The Tar Heels return home to Chapel Hill this week, to face in-state rival NC State, who will be without their QB Devin Leary. Because Leary is out, this line has been steamed up to the point the Wolfpack are now a solid value plus the points. While it’s never good to be without your starting QB, NC State has an experienced backup in Bailey Hockman. The North Carolina defense has been gashed the last two weeks, first giving up 45 to Virginia Tech, then 31 in the first half to Florida State. NC State is 4-1 and off three consecutive victories, two of them coming as underdogs. They aren’t going to roll over without Leary. Take away the Virginia Tech game and North Carolina is averaging only 28.3 points in its other three contests this year. We don’t think they can score enough to cover the large spread this week. Play on NC STATE AAA |
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10-24-20 | Joel Alvarez -160 v. Alexander Yakovlev | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ALVAREZ Let’s start early in the morning with a couple of lightweights. Alvarez (17-2) has won his last two fights, both as an underdog, stopping Danillo Belluardo and Joseph Duffy. The win over Duffy came back in July and ended in the 1st round with Alvarez winning by 1st round submission. He employed a guillotine choke few saw coming. Now Alvarez is favored over the veteran Yakovlev, who has tasted defeat 10 times before. The most recent loss occurred back in November, which is the last time he fought and was against Roosevelt Roberts, a decision loss. It was the third time in his last four fights that Yakovlev came out on the losing end. The thing with Yakovlev is that he’s too small to be a welterweight, but cutting weight to make 155 lbs seems to adversely affect his stamina. We can’t see him even making it the distance here, but even if he does, it’ll be another loss. Play on ALVAREZ AAA |
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10-23-20 | Dodgers v. Rays UNDER 7.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER This is the best starting pitching matchup we’ve had thus far in the World Series as Walker Buehler goes for the Dodgers and Charlie Morton goes for the Rays. Buehler threw six scoreless innings the last time we saw him and has given up just four runs total his last five starts. He’s allowed just 16 hits during that time and while there have been some issues with control (not the last start), perhaps the most important thing is he’s given up just two home runs this postseason. The Rays are getting an irregularly high amount of their runs from the long ball, which just isn’t sustainable. The Under is 5-0 in Buehler’s previous five starts. Morton has been even hotter than Buehler, if you can believe it. In the playoffs, Morton has a 0.57 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. He didn’t allow runs in either start in the ALCS. Game 2 was Tampa Bay’s highest scoring game since Game 3 of the ALDS against the Yankees. They have scored four or more in back to back games only one time in the playoffs and that was Games 3-4 of that series with the Yankees. The Under is 5-1 the L6 times they’ve been off a win. Play on UNDER AAA |
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10-23-20 | UL-Lafayette v. UAB -1.5 | Top | 24-20 | Loss | -110 | 82 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UAB This is a rare non-conference showdown this season, pitting top teams from the Sun Belt and Conference USA. Louisiana came in with a lot of hype this year after winning 11 games in 2019. They opened 2020 with an upset of Iowa State, but haven’t looked impressive since then. They’ve now been outgained in 3 of 4 games, including the win over Iowa State, and are off a loss - 30-27 to Coastal Carolina - where they were nine-point home favorites. Proud to report we were on the dog in that one as we told you that Louisiana’s two prior wins had been by 2 points and 3 in overtime. They trailed for most of those games (against Georgia State and Georgia Southern). Now the Cajuns must deal with a UAB squad that is 4-1, the only loss coming to Miami FL. The Blazers also played for their conference championship last season and have won three straight in fairly impressive fashion. They beat Western Kentucky 37-14 on Saturday for their 21st consecutive win at home. As you can see, this game takes place in Birmingham. The big problem for Louisiana so far is that they are giving up almost 200 yards/game on the ground. That’s a problem vs. UAB, who averages 175 rush yards/game and is 19th in the country in yards/carry. The UAB defense has allowed an average of just 12.3 points the L3 weeks. Play on UAB AAA |
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10-22-20 | Giants v. Eagles UNDER 44 | Top | 21-22 | Win | 100 | 59 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The NFC East is a total joke right now. Despite losing Dak Prescott for the year and getting blown out Monday night, Dallas is still in first place with a 2-4 record. Either the Giants or Eagles will join the Cowboys at 2 wins after Thursday. That is unless they tie, which Philly did earlier in the year against Cincinnati. The Giants were the last team in the division to record a win, doing so last week, appropriately against Washington. They scored just 20 points though and that was with a defensive score. New York is 31st in both yards and points per game offensively and their scoring average of 16.8 PPG would be significantly lower if not for putting up 34 points against the worst defense in the league (Dallas). The Eagles scored 28 last week against the Ravens, but a lot of that came in “garbage time.” Carson Wentz isn’t having a good year at all and TE Zach Ertz is going to be out for at least 3-4 weeks. Running back Miles Sanders will also miss this game. They aren’t turning things around on a short week. The only good news for Eagles fans is that the Giants have topped 16 points on offense in only one game this year (at Dallas), so they won’t be scoring much here. The Under is 5-1 for the Eagles, their last six games as a home favorite while it’s 4-1 for the Giants in their last five as a road underdog. Play on UNDER. AAA |
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10-22-20 | Arkansas State v. Appalachian State -10.5 | Top | 17-45 | Win | 100 | 58 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* on APP STATE Appalachian State finally gets to return to the field after a several week hiatus. The last time the Mountaineers played a game was September 22nd vs. Campbell, which was a 52-21 win. They host SunBelt foe Arkansas State on Thursday night. The Red Wolves were a winner for us last Thursday, outlasting Georgia State in a wild 59-52 affair, which was their second straight game scoring 50 or more. But they can expect far more resistance in this one, facing a Mountaineers defense that is giving up just 19.3 points/game so far. The most points allowed by App State through three games is 21. Perhaps it’s because they are 0-3 ATS, but this line clearly opened too low. As good as the Arkansas State passing attack has been this year, they couldn’t run the ball against Georgia State (just 1.5 yards/carry) and the defense was atrocious. The defensive coordinator and another coach were both let go with the Red Wolves allowing 481.8 yards/game (worst in the Sun Belt) and 39.8 points/game (2nd worst). App State should be able to run the ball at will in this game as they come in as the number five rushing team in the country at 269.3 yards/game. Play on APPALACHIAN STATE AAA |
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10-21-20 | Rays v. Dodgers -147 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -147 | 13 h 0 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LA Pretty much everything we said in our Game 1 analysis rang true last night as the Dodgers opened the series with a 8-3 win. The Rays have gotten shockingly little offense in the postseason, outside of when they are hitting home runs. As mentioned in yesterday’s writeup, almost 72% of their runs scored in the playoffs have come via the long ball. While the Dodgers homered twice in Game 1, they also showed they can string runs together without hitting out of the park. Scoring eight times across three innings was more than enough in Game 1. Though Tony Gonsolin will start Game 2 for LA, this likely turns into a “bullpen game” for them. Though Gonsolin wasn’t very good against Atlanta in the NLCS, he does have a 2.74 ERA and 0.82 WHIP for the season. Blake Snell goes for Tampa Bay tonight. He isn’t likely to go as long as Tyler Glasnow did last night for Kevin Cash. An issue for Snell this postseason has been control of his fastball, which has led to 10 walks. An issue here is that the Dodgers have a .990 OPS in the playoffs vs. left-handers and they’ve hit a lot of homers. The Dodgers, who have won 42 of their last 55 games and are 17-4 vs. the AL this season, are simply the better team here. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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10-20-20 | Rays v. Dodgers -165 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 27 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LA We were behind the Dodgers in their NLCS comeback, taking them in both Games 6 & 7. While rallying back from a 3-1 series deficit against the Braves certainly had to take a lot out of the club, let’s not discount what the Rays just went through. They led the ALCS 3-0 before Houston stormed back to force a Game 7. So we’ve got a World Series where both participants have to feel like they’ve been through a war. Clayton Kershaw, who did NOT get called into duty in Game 7 vs. Atlanta, now gets the Game 1 start for LA. You can certainly question Kershaw’s postseason resume as it is nowhere near as impressive as his regular season accolades. But it’s hard to question a pitcher that has a 0.87 WHIP across his 13 starts this year. Plus, Tampa Bay really struggles to score when they are not hitting home runs. Almost 72% of the Rays’ runs scored during the playoffs have come via the long ball. Kershaw has allowed just 8 HR’s going back to August. Three of those were in his L2 starts but he was also facing the #3 and #2 scoring offenses in baseball. The home run ball likely will be a deciding factor in this series as the Dodgers just set a record by hitting 16 in one series. They hit the most homers in the regular season. Game 1 starter for Tampa Bay, Tyler Glasnow has allowed six HRs in 19 ⅓ postseason innings. Uh oh. Another edge for the Dodgers is they have been playing here in Arlington while the ALCS was in San Diego. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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10-19-20 | Cardinals -2.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 38-10 | Win | 100 | 173 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ARI Dallas has struggled all season on the defensive side of the ball. Actually, to call it “struggling” would be putting things rather mildly. They have flat out stunk defensively. Even last week, when they won, they gave up 34 points to a Giants team that had previously not scored more than 16 points in any game this season. And the Cowboys needed two field goals in the final two minutes, including the game-winner with no time left, just to come out ahead. Through five games, America’s Team has given up more than 400 yards and 36 points/game. The numbers get even uglier when analyzing just the last four games. Only five defenses have given up more yards per game while no one has allowed more points. But of course, on top of that horrific defense, the bigger story is now the loss of QB Dak Prescott (broke his ankle) for the rest of the season. Prescott was putting up historic numbers and doing his best to counteract the defense. Now it’s Andy Dalton under center. Arizona is coming off an easy 30-10 win over the Jets and should again put up plenty of points on Monday night. The Cardinals are now 8-2-2 ATS L12 road games while Dallas is the only team in the league that hasn’t covered a single game this season. Play on ARIZONA AAA |
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10-18-20 | Rams v. 49ers +3.5 | Top | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 149 h 59 m | Show |
10* play on SF So the 49ers played a terrible game last week. They lost 43-17 at home to Miami. It happens. Admittedly, San Francisco should be worried as the week before that they lost at home to Philadelphia. Now they face the prospect of a third consecutive home defeat as the Rams come to town Sunday night. Don’t look for that to happen though. This line “flipped” pretty quickly as it was San Fran that opened as a favorite. The line move has been pretty severe and an overreaction (our opinion) to what happened last week. The Rams are 4-1, but have beaten some pretty weak teams along the way. The last two weeks have seen them get to face the Giants and Washington, who are a combined 1-9. This is the first time all season that the 49ers will be an underdog. It comes at a time when the offense is the healthiest it's been all year. They defeated the Rams both times last year. Let’s just chalk up last week to a “one week thing” as SF should bounce back in primetime this week. They are 5-1 ATS their last six games as an underdog. Play on SAN FRANCISCO AAA |
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10-18-20 | Braves v. Dodgers -139 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LOS ANGELES We rolled with the Dodgers in Game 6 and that’s who we are going with again in Game 7. LA was able to jump on Atlanta starter Max Fried early yesterday, scoring three runs in the first inning and that held up in a 3-1 win. They’ll face Ian Anderson in Game 7. While Anderson hasn’t allowed a run this postseason, he was a bit wild back in Game 2 when he walked five hitters. Remember that the Dodgers just handed Fried his first losing decision of the year. It was only the second time this season that the Braves lost with Fried pitching. So Anderson should not be viewed as infallible. The Dodgers were baseball’s best team in the regular season and by that measure, we’re getting them at a fairly discounted price here in Game 7. They are 40-13 L53 games. They have yet to make a decision on who will start tonight, but you know it’s going to be a combined effort on the mound with Tony Gonsolin, Julio Urias and maybe even Clayton Kershaw all making an appearance. The Braves have scored three runs or less in three of the last four games. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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10-18-20 | Ravens v. Eagles OVER 46.5 | Top | 30-28 | Win | 100 | 142 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER With the exception of the Monday night game vs. Kansas City, Baltimore has run roughshod over the rest of the league, winning four games by 14 points or more. This week they travel to Philadelphia to face a wounded Eagles team that’s 1-3-1 overall and just gave up 38 points to Pittsburgh last week. Seeing as how the Ravens have scored at least 27 points in all of their wins this year, we see this game going Over the total with little drama. The Ravens probably could have scored even more if they “wanted” last week, but with such a commanding lead over the Bengals, they clearly took their foot off the gas in the second half. The Eagles are likely to be playing “catch up” most of the way here and one positive for them is that they have increased their scoring from the previous week in every game this season. But a defense that’s given up an average of 29 points/game while facing some not very good offenses is in for a rough one this week. The Over is 4-0 for Philadelphia the last four seasons in Week 6. That trend stays alive this week. Consider how much scoring we’re seeing across the league this year, this number seems low. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-18-20 | Bears v. Panthers | Top | 23-16 | Loss | -117 | 75 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 9* on CAROLINA Two overachieving teams meet in Charlotte this Sunday with the 3-2 Panthers hosting the 4-1 Bears. What’s really remarkable about those two won-loss records is that the teams have combined to be favored in just ONE game all year. That was when the Bears hosted the Giants and they did not cover the spread! Carolina has won as an underdog each of the last three weeks. We do not see an upset in this game. In three of their four wins this year (Giants being the exception), Chicago has come back from a double digit deficit. They gained just 4.1 yards per play against Tampa Bay last Thursday and were outgained by nearly 100 yards in the game. That they won should be considered a minor miracle. This is an offense that has failed to gain even 300 total yards in either of the two games Nick Foles has started. They have scored just 31 points in those two games. The Carolina defense has looked much improved during the three-game win streak, giving up an average of just 17.7 points/game. A 4-1 team that’s being outgained per play and per game would seem to be rather fraudulent. The Bears are just that and they are 0-5 ATS off their last five ATS wins. Play on CAROLINA AAA |
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10-17-20 | Georgia v. Alabama -6 | Top | 24-41 | Win | 100 | 101 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 9* on ALABAMA Alabama may not have a good recent history as a home favorite of 7 points or less (0-4-1 ATS with four outright losses), but what the Crimson Tide do have here is some serious motivation, coming off last week’s lackadaisical defensive effort vs. Ole Miss. The Tide gave up 48 points and more than 600 yards in one of the worst efforts of the Saban era. With Saban himself testing positive for COVID-19, everyone seems to be counting out Bama this week against Georgia, but not us. The Tide looked just fine to us the first two games, so we’ll call last week a bad matchup. Saban has even suggested Lane Kiffin (former assistant) may have known Bama’s defensive signals. Georgia’s offense is struggling to run the ball, averaging only 3.8 yards/carry. Alabama QB Mac Jones is completing almost 80% of his passes. Saban’s absence from the sidelines would loom large Saturday night in Tuscaloosa, but the home team will still find a way to win … and cover. Play on ALABAMA AAA |
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10-17-20 | Boston College +12 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 14-40 | Loss | -110 | 101 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BOSTON COLLEGE Just how LETHAL has Boston College been as an underdog? Well, they are already 3-0 ATS this season when taking points. That includes outright wins over Duke when they were +6 (won 26-6) and last week against Pitt when they were +6.5 (won 31-30 in OT). The only non-cover for BC this season was in an uninspiring non-conference game vs. Texas State, which they won 24-21. Going back several seasons, the Eagles are now 20-5-1 ATS their L26 ACC games. As an underdog, that record jumps to 17-2-1 ATS and they’ve won 11 times outright! That can’t be music to the ears of Virginia Tech, who just gave up 56 points last week at North Carolina and is 1-6 ATS the last seven times it has been installed as a double digit favorite. Keep in mind that BC held North Carolina to only 26 points and almost beat them earlier this month. While it’s true Virginia Tech is now healthier at QB and can run the ball, this BC defense hasn’t given up more than 26 points in regulation all year. That BC is 3-0 ATS as a dog despite no real running game of their own is impressive. They are now a passing offense with Notre Dame transfer Phil Jurkovec averaging nearly 300 yards/game. Play on BOSTON COLLEGE AAA |
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10-17-20 | Braves v. Dodgers -145 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LOS ANGELES The Dodgers season appeared to be hanging by a thread in Game 5 as they found themselves down 2-0 early. But then they struck for three runs in both the sixth and seventh innings, a Will Smith HR being the deciding blast. So here we are in Game 6 Saturday with LA needing to win to force a deciding Game 7. We like their chances to do so. It’s a rematch of the pitching matchup we had in Game 1 with Max Fried taking on Walker Buehler. Fried is 7-0 in 14 starts with the team winning 13 times. He did not factor into the Game 1 decision as remember that was a 1-1 game going into the ninth. Buehler has a 9-2 TSR and allowed just three hits in five innings back in Game 1. To us, this play simply boils down to who is the more complete team. That would be the Dodgers, who were so dominant in the regular season and are now 39-13 L52 overall. Play on LOS ANGELES AAA |
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10-17-20 | Virginia -3 v. Wake Forest | Top | 23-40 | Loss | -105 | 97 h 51 m | Show |
This is an 8* on VIRGINIA Virginia played a really sloppy game last week against NC State, which is why they lost 38-21 as a seven-point home favorite. But please do not make the mistake of judging that game by its final score. The Cavaliers outgained the Wolfpack 405-363. So how did they lose by 17, you ask? Turnovers. There were four of them by UVA (only 1 by NC State). All were costly, especially a late pick-six that broke the game open. Turning it over on downs in the 4Q led to another late NC State TD. This week the Cavaliers are at Wake Forest, who is off a bye, but also is 0-2 vs. the ACC. The Demon Deacons got predictably blown out by Clemson then lost 45-42 at NC State. Their only win was against FCS Campbell. So both teams losses were to the same two teams (with both covering vs. Clemson), the only difference is Virginia actually beat an ACC team (Duke) rather than a FCS one. We know there are some question marks at QB for the Cavaliers (Brennan Armstrong got knocked out of last week’s game with a concussion, another bad break), but backup Lindell Stone looked good enough (save for the pick-six). No matter who is the QB, look for the road team to win Saturday afternoon. Wake Forest’s defense is the worst in the ACC on third down (52.4% conversion rate) while Virginia’s defense is great at stopping the run (allows only 3.4 yds/carry). Play on VIRGINIA AAA |
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10-17-20 | South Florida +11 v. Temple | Top | 37-39 | Win | 100 | 93 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* on USF Last week, we told you to fade Temple in its very first game of the season. The Owls lost, 31-29, to a Navy team that had really been struggling this season. While a late 2-pt try could have tied it, Temple never led in the contest, though it did outgain the Midshipmen. Still, that “moral victory” will be of no use here as the Owls are being asked to lay double digits, something they are clearly not ready to do at this juncture of the season. South Florida has been bad, losing three straight by 20 or more points. But two of those were against really good teams (Notre Dame, Cincinnati). We don’t know what to say about last week’s 44-24 home loss to East Carolina. The Bulls secondary actually held up against both ranked opponents and is allowing only 6.6 yards per attempt this year. Including an ATS win at Cincinnati, USF is 5-1 ATS off its previous six ATS defeats, so they tend to bounce back from disappointing efforts. This is enough points for us to feel comfortable in selecting a pretty desperate underdog. Play on USF AAA |
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10-17-20 | Clemson -26.5 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 73-7 | Win | 100 | 28 h 27 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CLEMSON While Clemson had been winning comfortably, they were 0-3 ATS heading into last week’s heavily hyped showdown with Miami. On Saturday night, the Tigers reminded us all why they are considered one of the elite CFB programs in this country. They blew the doors off the Hurricanes, winning 42-17, and easily covered the 14-point spread. Even after a high profile win such as that, Clemson shouldn’t have much trouble covering this larger spread this week at Georgia Tech. Not only are the Yellow Jackets 0-5 ATS their L5 vs. ranked opponents, they have failed to cover all four times in program history when they’ve been an underdog of at least 27 points. Clemson is 16-5 ATS L21 ACC games and 18-7 ATS its last 25 times as a double digit favorite. The last two years, they’ve beaten Georgia Tech 49-21 and 52-14. The Yellow Jackets defense has been really bad this season, even giving up 37 to Syracuse. Last Friday’s 46-27 win over Louisville was a completely misleading final score. The Jackets were actually outgained (gave up 471 yards) but got lucky with a +3 turnover differential. Clemson won’t be so generous here. Play on CLEMSON AAA |
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10-17-20 | Liverpool -110 v. Everton | Top | 2-2 | Loss | -110 | 143 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LIVERPOOL What an early season showdown we’ve got here in the Premier League as current table leaders Everton take on last year’s standard-bearer Liverpool. Not being entirely sold on Everton, we’re backing Liverpool in a serious way on Saturday in the 288th edition of the Merseyside Derby. When these sides take the pitch on Saturday, it will have been 10 years to the date since Everton last beat the Reds. It will also be the 5-year anniversary of Jurgen Klopp taking over the reigns of Liverpool. That the Reds are coming off their worst Premier League loss ever, 7-2 at the hands of Aston Villa two weeks ago, only adds to the drama here. Liverpool has never dropped two straight EPL fixtures under Klopp and coming off the International Break will certainly be ready for this one. Everton is the only EPL side to have taken all the possible points from their first four matches and there is no doubt that the Toffees are feeling good entering this one. But history is not on their side here. Not only has it been a decade since they defeated their rivals, they have not started a Premier League campaign with five straight victories since 1938-39. Though they did defeat Tottenham Hotspur a few weeks back, that remains Everton’s lone win over a “Top Six” team since Ancelotti took over. Too much pressure on Everton here. Play on LIVERPOOL AAA |
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10-16-20 | BYU v. Houston OVER 62.5 | Top | 43-26 | Win | 100 | 79 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER While it would be accurate to say both BYU and Houston come into this Friday night matchup “undefeated,” it’s also a tad bit misleading. BYU is 4-0, but Houston is only 1-0 after finally opening its season last Thursday. Still this should be a pretty exciting game. After rolling through its first three games (Navy, Troy, La Tech) by a combined score of 148-24, Brigham Young was finally tested last week and it was by perhaps the unlikeliest of opponents. UTSA, a 34-point underdog, hung close in what was a 27-20 final. That said, BYU did move the ball a lot in that game, gaining 476 yards. But they had issues finishing drives. They fumbled inside the red zone on the opening possession, then turned it over on downs (in UTSA territory) on the second. Don’t worry about a Cougars offense that is averaging 7.8 yards per play thus far. Nor should you worry about a Houston offense that put up 49 points last week despite its own early troubles. QB Clayton Tune had two 1st quarter turnovers (INT, fumble) that were returned for Tulane touchdown, but recovered to throw for over 300 yards. The BYU defense just allowed a season-worst 287 pass yards against UTSA and Tune should easily eclipse that mark. Look for a lot of fireworks in this one. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-16-20 | Astros +1.5 v. Rays | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON +1.5 Going into Game 4 of the ALCS, Tampa Bay was up 3-0 in the series and owned a MLB-best 16-5 record in one-run games this season. That was the best win percentage in one-run games for any single season in the history of baseball. Well, as you know, the ALCS is still going on. The Rays are now just 16-7 in one-run games having lost Games 4 and 5 by identical 4-3 scores. Last night it was a Carlos Correa walk-off that proved to be the difference for the Astros. Houston has outhit Tampa Bay in this series, even when they were losing, so we’re not surprised that they’ve climbed back into the series. With the series being so low-scoring thus far (every game has stayed Under), taking Houston +1.5 in a must-win spot seems ideal. On the mound, it’ll be a rematch of Game 1 starters tonight. Framber Valdez allowed just two runs on four hits for the Astros in Game 1. He’s gone at least six innings in all but two of his 12 starts in 2020. Blake Snell hasn’t gone a full six (innings) one time this season. He did give up just the one run in Game 1, but Astros’ hitters were making good contact with him and had six hits. Snell also had only two strikeouts, compared to eight by Valdez. Play on HOUSTON +1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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10-15-20 | Dodgers -220 v. Braves | Top | 2-10 | Loss | -220 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 6* on LA DODGERS This is a “whole new series” now. The Dodgers scored a MLB postseason record 11 runs in the first inning of Game 3 and rolled to a 15-3 win. They’ve now scored 22 times on a Braves staff that had only allowed five runs total in its first six postseason games (four shutouts). For Game 4, Los Angeles gets a shot at another shaky looking starter for the Braves, that being Bryse Wilson. Meanwhile, they (LA) now get to turn to Clayton Kershaw after he was scratched from his previously scheduled Game 2 start. The Dodgers’ bats have clearly “woken up” and Kershaw will take care of the Braves hitters in this one. Something that must be pointed out is the fact that while Atlanta has gone 19-4 in the 23 starts made by Fried and Anderson this season, they are just 23-22 otherwise. Wilson only started two regular season games. Kershaw is now pitching on extra rest after looking good in both previous starts this postseason. We think the moneyline for Game 4 “says it all” as the Dodgers are a lock to even this series up at two games apiece. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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10-15-20 | Georgia State v. Arkansas State -3.5 | Top | 52-59 | Win | 100 | 53 h 51 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ARKANSAS STATE Arkansas State (2-2) holds a win over Kansas State, which is looking more and more impressive as time wears on. (Kansas State has since gone 3-0 with a win over Oklahoma). The Red Wolves did get their doors blown off at Coastal Carolina, but finally got a home game last Saturday and in it defeated Central Arkansas 50-27. While that’s a FCS team, the Red Wolves have obviously proven they can beat a good team. They are 3-0 ATS besides the games vs. Coastal Carolina, who may be a better team that most realize. As for Georgia State, we know they almost upset Sun Belt standard bearer Louisiana. But they lost that game in overtime. That was almost a month ago. The Panthers’ lone other contest took place 12 days ago and they had little problem beating East Carolina 49-29. That they were 17-point underdogs to Louisiana and a slight underdog at home to ECU should tell you what the market thinks of them. Now COVID-19 played a role in those lines, but we think they are getting a bit too much respect Thursday in Jonesboro. GSU is just 2-10-2 ATS its L14 road games. They won’t win here. Play on ARKANSAS STATE AAA |
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10-14-20 | Rays v. Astros OVER 8 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Tampa Bay has done all the “little things” right in taking a seemingly insurmountable 3-0 lead in this year’s ALCS. Last night, it was their defense that carried them to a 5-2 victory. Houston is hitting the ball hard in this series. The ball just keeps landing in the gloves of the Rays fielders. They’ve also had MORE hits in the series compared to the Rays. But none of that matters now. We do think the Astros, who have been held to just five runs in three games, are going to score more in Game 4. Whether it’s enough to keep the series going remains to be seen. Zack Greinke will start tonight for Houston. He’s not lasted over five innings in any of his last five times out and has given up at least three runs in four of those five outings. He allowed two homers in the LDS start vs. Oakland. Tyler Glasnow will start here for the Rays. He has an 11-0 TSR his L11 starts, so they couldn’t have asked for a better scenario as they look to advance to the World Series. However, be aware that Glasnow only made it through 2 ⅓ innings his last time out and did give up four runs in his first of the two LDS starts. We know the first three games all stayed Under, but Game 4 should sneak Over. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-14-20 | Atlanta United v. Inter Miami -148 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -148 | 28 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* on Inter Miami Our weekly foray into MLS takes us to this clash between Inter Miami CF and the Atlanta United. While both clubs reside near the bottom of the table, Inter Miami has got all the momentum right now as for the first time in franchise history they’ve won back to back games. Since the restart, some signings have really provided a jolt to the team and they are flashing far better form than Atlanta right now. They’ve also had the United’s number this season, winning twice and playing to draw in the three previous head to head meetings. A win here would allow Inter Miami to leapfrog Atlanta in the table. The United are nowhere near as good as they were last season and have been unable to string together many victories. They’ve been kept clean in three of the previous four matches including the last two, which have seen them lose to NYRB and draw with Orlando. Inter Miami has the edge in this one. Play on INTER MIAMI CF AAA |
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10-14-20 | Coastal Carolina +7.5 v. UL-Lafayette | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 30 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* on Coastal Carolina Louisiana won 11 games last year and is currently unbeaten and ranked #21 in the country. They defeated nationally ranked Iowa State in their season opener. But the resume for this Ragin Cajun team isn’t as rosy as you might think. They have been outgained in two of their three games, including the upset of Iowa State, and their last two wins have been by 2 points and 3 in overtime. They did not come close to covering the 17-point spread vs. Georgia State nor the 12-point spread vs. Georgia Southern, even trailing outright for a considerable portion of those two games. In comes Sun Belt rival Coastal Carolina, who is also 3-0 on the road. The Chanticleers have also beaten a Big 12 team this year (Kansas) and scored 95 points in the two wins since. They’ve had excellent line play on both sides of the football. Throw in the fact this game has had to be moved twice and you’ve got all the makings of an upset Wednesday night on ESPN2. Coastal Carolina has covered each of the last four tries as a road underdog while Louisiana is 0-4 ATS the L4 times it has been a favorite. Play on Coastal Carolina AAA |
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10-14-20 | Dodgers -170 v. Braves | Top | 15-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 8* on LA DODGERS Both the Dodgers and Braves entered the NLCS with perfect postseason records. Obviously, that could continue for only one team moving forward and surprisingly it’s the Braves that now own a 7-0 playoff record. Game 1, they broke things open in the ninth. They took control much earlier in Game 2 as it was 6-0 at the end of five (innings). But while they lost, a positive sign for the Dodgers was that they finally broke through against the vaunted Braves’ bullpen, scoring seven runs over the final three innings. It was just a matter of time before baseball’s highest scoring offense (from the regular season) “woke up” and we like LA in Game 3 as Atlanta’s lack of depth in the starting rotation will again be tested. So far the Braves have only had to use three starters the entire postseason. Max Fried and Ian Anderson have accounted for six of the seven starts. Kyle Wright made the other and while it couldn’t have possibly gone any better (six shutout innings), his YTD numbers suggest that was an outlier performance. Urias will be the Dodgers’ Game 3 starter and he’s allowed two runs or less in 8 of his 10 starts. Los Angeles is “too good” to go down 0-3 in this series. They have NEVER lost three in a row all year, going 4-0 off back to back losses. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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10-13-20 | Bills v. Titans UNDER 53.5 | Top | 16-42 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER The 4-0 Bills and 3-0 Titans had to wait a couple extra days, but finally get to “hook it up” in a special TUESDAY night edition of the NFL. Tennessee did not play last week as it was a COVID-19 outbreak among their ranks that not only forced a cancellation, but the postponement here. Buffalo was originally going to host Kansas City this Thursday, but that game had to be bumped back to Monday due to the situation here. So by the time these teams do hit the field, there will have already been a lot of moving pieces dealt with. We don’t think either offense is going to be firing on all cylinders given the circumstance and will take the Under. Depending on what your closing line for last week’s game with Las Vegas was, there is a chance that you have the Bills at 4-0 Over. They’ve hit 30+ points three weeks in a row as the offense has greatly exceeded expectations thus far. Tennessee is off two straight 30+ point games, but those might as well have been last season. They are missing multiple receivers now including Corey Davis. This will be the highest total either team has faced so far this season. Under is 20-8-1 Bills L29 road games. Play on UNDER AAA |
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10-13-20 | Braves v. Dodgers -155 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -155 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
NO ACTION DUE TO PITCHING CHANGE |
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10-12-20 | Chargers v. Saints OVER 51.5 | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 171 h 36 m | Show |
This is an 10* on LA/NO Over New Orleans has gone Over in every game thus far, scoring 30 or more points themselves three times. They’ve also given up 29 or more points in three straight games. Last week, they won a 35-29 shootout at Detroit. We had the Saints in that one and watched them score touchdowns on five consecutive drives after trailing 14-0 early. They had 29 first downs and this was without WR Michael Thomas, who could be back for this game. As long as Alvin Kamara is part of the offense, it will continue to score. He already has 557 total yards from scrimmage and seven touchdowns. The Chargers had not gone Over in a game this year until last week’s 38-31 loss to the Buccaneers. That was a wild one and while LA lost, the offense is definitely in better hands with rookie QB Justin Herbert guiding it as opposed to veteran Tyrod Taylor. We think both teams are going to be able to move the ball up and down the field in this Monday nighter and given NFL games are averaging right around 51.5 points for the year, this total is too low considering the Saints are involved. The Over is 6-2 in New Orleans’ last eight MNF appearances, one of those coming three weeks ago vs. Las Vegas. The Over is also 10-4 the Chargers’ L14 games after allowing 30 or more the previous week. The Over is 5-0 the L5 times these teams have met. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-12-20 | Braves v. Dodgers -137 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -137 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LA Atlanta has had it fairly easy, at least by playoff standards, in the first two series. They got two pretty weak offensive teams - Cincinnati and Miami - and boy did they take advantage. Five wins, four of them shutouts! But now they’ve got to go through baseball’s best team, that being the Dodgers. Los Angeles also boasts a 5-0 playoff record. They scored more runs in their last game (12) than Atlanta has allowed the entire postseason (4). All four runs the Braves have allowed during the playoffs belong to tonight’s starter Max Fried. Fried lasted just four innings in Game 1 of the LDS against the Marlins. A similar start here would mean major trouble, even with that stellar Braves’ bullpen. It’s not Miami they are facing here, but Walker Buehler, who just doesn’t give up many runs. The Dodgers are also averaging 6.0 runs/game when facing a left-handed starter. Not only have the Dodgers won 9 straight overall (goes back to regular season), they’ve won the last eight times Buehler has started. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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10-12-20 | Astros v. Rays UNDER 8 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Houston took an early 1-0 lead in Game 1, but did not score after the first inning. As a result, they dropped Game 1 by a score of 2-1. That was still a winner for us, mind you. We had the Astros +1.5. Two of the game's three runs came on solo HRs - Jose Altuve for the Astros and Randy Arozarena for the Rays. We don’t anticipate much scoring taking place in Game 2 either. Consider that Tampa Bay has just 12 hits - total - its last three games. All three runs they’ve scored in the last two games have been solo shots. So they’re not doing much scoring otherwise. Houston’s Game 2 starter Lance McCullers did have a bit of a rough go in the LDS vs. Oakland, but prior to that hadn’t allowed a single earned run over his previous three starts. The three HR’s he allowed to the A’s was more than he gave up in his previous 8 starts combined. Tampa’s Charlie Morton has allowed just 1 HR in his L7 starts and only 4 all year. He’s yet to allow multiple HR in the same start. Two starters that are good at preventing the long ball should help keep this one Under the total rather easily. Under is 8-1-1 the Rays’ L10 after scoring 2 runs or less last game. Play on UNDER AAA |
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10-11-20 | Lakers v. Heat +5 | Top | 106-93 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIA Miami isn’t going down without a fight -- that is if they go down at all! As we said prior to Game 5 - “if there’s one thing we’ve learned this postseason, it’s that the Heat are a resilient bunch.” We saw it in Game 3 when they won outright as a 9-point dog, 115-104. Game 4 was “close” too; or at least Miami covered again thanks to a made 3-pointer from Tyler Herro with 1.1 seconds left. By pulling the upset in Game 5, the Heat now have a 15-4-1 ATS playoff record and they are 14-6 straight up as well. They’ve been beaten in back to back games just one time during this run, that being Games 1 and 2 of this series. We said to bank on them shooting better in Game 5 than they did in Game 4 (when they finished with a 42.7 FG%) and they did, finishing at 42.9% from three-point range. (They were above 50% overall in both Games 2 and 3). Bam Adebayo is now back after missing Games 2 and 3. He’s had a combined 28 points and 11 rebounds since returning. But of course it has been Jimmy Butler “carrying the load” with those great individual efforts in Games 3 (40 points, 11 rebounds and 13 assists) and 5 (35-12-11). At one point in Game 5, the Lakers were shooting 56.3% and still losing. Now Anthony Davis is banged up. All the pressure is on the Lakers. Play on MIAMI AAA |
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10-11-20 | Astros +1.5 v. Rays | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOU +1.5 There are no off days in the LCS, so these teams could be playing as many as seven games in seven days. We think there’s going to be a real premium on starting pitchers going deep into games. Granted, Tampa Bay is never afraid to have a “quick hook” and turn to its bullpen, which has been successful for them all year. But with just one day off between series and Game 1 starter Blake Snell having yet to pitch a full six innings even one time in 2020, the Rays seem to be at a bit of a disadvantage here. Astros Game 1 starter Framber Valdez has gone a full seven innings in 7 of his 13 outings this season. The team that homers more has gone 22-1 this postseason. Houston homered 12 times in 4 games vs. Oakland, Tampa Bay homered 11 times in 5 games vs. the Yankees. This pretty clearly isn’t the same Houston team we saw struggle in the regular season. They are healthier now and motivated by the cheating scandal. Last year, they ousted TB in 5 games in the LDS. They took the first two games of that series. Taking the ‘Stros on the run line here is a tremendous value as we just can’t see them doing any worse than a one-run loss in Game 1. Play HOUSTON +1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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10-11-20 | Giants v. Cowboys -8 | Top | 34-37 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* on DALLAS The Cowboys are 0-4 against the spread. The only other winless ATS teams are: the Jets, Texans and Titans. The Titans have played only three games (but are 3-0 straight up!) while the other two teams on that list are both 0-4 SU. The Cowboys are lucky not to be 0-4 SU also. Their only win was a huge comeback at Atlanta. Dak Prescott and the offense are doing just fine, thank you (#1 in yards per game!). But the Dallas defense stinks right now as it is giving up the third most yards and most points per game. That’s where a matchup with the 0-4 Giants comes in. New York’s offense, minus Saquon Barkley, simply isn’t good enough to take advantage of the Dallas defense the same way previous opponents have. The G-Men are averaging the second fewest yards and the fewest points in the league right now. We faded Dallas last week (outright winner with Cleveland!) and while we don’t necessarily trust them to cover the full game spread this week, we expect a fast start. All they need to be is up a touchdown and that seems very doable against a side averaging just 5.5 points per game in the first half this year. Play on DALLAS AAA |
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10-11-20 | Cardinals -6.5 v. Jets | Top | 30-10 | Win | 100 | 139 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ARIZONA Arizona seemed like it would be a “surprise team” in 2020 as they started 2-0, including a win over the NFC Champion 49ers. But the last two weeks have seen them lose as favorites to the Lions and Panthers. That’s just not acceptable if they wish to be taken seriously. Fortunately for Kliff Kingsbury, this week’s opponent is the Jets and that’s a team no one is taking seriously right now. The Jets might be the worst team in the league at this point. Sam Darnold wasn’t exactly lighting the world on fire before getting hurt last Thursday vs. Denver. If he’s out, then the Jets would have to go with the ancient Joe Flacco at quarterback. In that Thursday night game vs. the Broncos, the Jets were +3 in turnovers and still lost by nine at home. That was to a winless team starting the undrafted Brett Rypien at QB on a short week! Arizona easily could have been 3-0 going into last week’s game. They played poorly at Carolina, plain and simple. But they are talented enough to bounce back with a big win here against a team that’s giving up almost 35 points per game over the L3 weeks. The Jets offense has no talent left at the skill positions and has lost every game by at least nine points. Play on ARIZONA AAA |
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10-10-20 | Marlon Moraes +122 v. Cory Sandhagen | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 75 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* on Moraes This is the main event of the card, so these bantamweight fighters are scheduled for five rounds. At 23-6-1, Marlon Moraes is the more proven fighter and we like him quite a bit as an underdog against 12-2 Corey Sandhagen. Moraes has gone toe to toe with Henry Cejudo, the only man to defeat him in the last six fights and that was with the Bantamweight Title at stake. Moraes rebounded with a decision victory over Jose Aldo last December, but has very much been the “forgotten man” in the division (at least among top contenders) ever since. He can remind everyone of his talents tonight against Sandhagen, who obviously is not the same caliber of competitor as Cejudo is. Sandhagen had a seven-fight win streak stopped back in June at the hands of Aljamain Sterling, who finished him in Round 1 with a rear-naked choke. Keep in mind that’s the same Sterling that Moraes knocked out in just 67 seconds back in 2017. Sandhagen is a disciplined fighter, but his willingness to stand in and bang with Moraes will be his undoing. Play on MORAES AAA |
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10-10-20 | Temple v. Navy +3.5 | Top | 29-31 | Win | 100 | 81 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NAVY Navy is not having a good start to the season. The Midshipmen are 1-2 and the two losses have been by 52 and 33 points. In their only win, 27-24 over Tulane, they trailed 24-0 at the half. They were actually FAVORED by 6.5 points last week when they lost to Air Force 40-7. But we are not ready to declare this a “sinking ship” just yet. This week the Middies welcome Temple to Annapolis. The Owls have yet to play a game in 2020, so we don’t know a ton about them. What we do know is that this game was originally set to take place on 9/26, but Temple coach Rod Carey said his team “needed more time to prepare.” That was awfully nice of Navy to give Temple an extra two week. Something else that needs to be pointed out is that the Midshipmen played last week’s game without their starting QB Dalen Morris. He is slated to return for this game. With all four of its non-conference games cancelled, Temple is just too big of a question mark to lay points on the road. Coach Ken Niumatalolo will have Navy ready to play here. Play on NAVY AAA |
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10-10-20 | Virginia Tech v. North Carolina UNDER 60.5 | Top | 45-56 | Loss | -116 | 75 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 9* on UNDER The ACC will be front and center on Saturday as four of its five ranked teams will square off in a pair of marquee matchups. While Va Tech-North Carolina may not get the same amount of press as Miami-Clemson, the former figures to be a tight game and we think it’ll be a little lower scoring than expected as well. North Carolina’s first two games have both stayed Under. The key here will be their run defense, which is ranked #1 in the country, stopping Hokies running back Khalil Herbert. Herbert, a transfer from Kansas, had 212 yards rushing and a school-record 358 all-purpose yards in last week’s 38-31 win over Duke. That’s more than double the number of rush yards this Tar Heels defense has allowed in two games. UNC allowed just 22 total points to Syracuse and Boston College. While Virginia Tech is better than either of those teams, their offense can certainly be one-dimensional. The QB situation is unsettled and they completed only nine passes vs. the Duke defense. The Hokies won’t be scoring anywhere close to the number of points we saw from them in the first two games nor will this one be anything like last year’s 6OT marathon with the Tar Heels, which Va Tech won 43-41. An interesting note about the game, which was the longest in ACC history: it was just 29-29 at the end of regulation. The Under is 8-3 the L11 times the Hokies have been a road underdog. Play on UNDER AAA |
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10-10-20 | Florida -6.5 v. Texas A&M | Top | 38-41 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 4 m | Show |
This is an 8* on FLORIDA Things aren’t looking too rosy for Texas A&M right now after an unimpressive win over Vanderbilt and a blowout loss to Alabama. Still ranked (for now), Jimbo Fisher’s Aggies must now face Florida, another top five team that is scoring in bunches. The Gators have put up 89 points in two wins, both of which were by double digits. They won at Ole Miss 51-35 with 642 yards offense, then took care of South Carolina 38-24. While that second game ended up being pretty even in terms of total yards, Florida was ahead 38-14 late in the 3rd quarter and clearly took its foot off the gas. South Carolina was pretty lucky to go 11 for 23 on third/fourth down, something we don’t see the Aggies replicating. Even more so than giving up a 31-3 run to Alabama, A&M’s poor showing vs. Vandy casts a real “shadow of doubt” over the team’s preseason ranking. They have not done well in the past at home vs. top five opponents, losing all five such matchups since 2000. Florida has won all seven times they’ve been a road favorite under Mullen with the tightest margin of victory being eight points. This is a “friendly” line for the favorite too! Play on FLORIDA AAA |
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10-09-20 | Heat +7.5 v. Lakers | Top | 111-108 | Win | 100 | 53 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI Miami is down to their “last proverbial out.” It’s win or go home time as they trail the Lakers 3-1 in the series. But if there’s one thing we’ve learned this postseason, it’s that the Heat are a resilient bunch. We saw it in Game 3 when they won outright as a 9-point dog, 115-104. Game 4 was “close” too; or at least Miami covered again thanks to a made 3-pointer from Tyler Herro with 1.1 seconds left. That leaves the Heat with a 14-4-1 ATS playoff record and they are 13-6 straight up as well. They’ve been beaten in back to back games just one time during this run, that being Games 1 and 2 of this series. Bam Adebayo is now back after missing Games 2 and 3. He had 15 points and 7 rebounds in Game 4. Of course, Jimmy Butler had that great individual effort in Game 3 with 40 points, 11 rebounds and 13 assists. Bank on the Heat shooting better than they did in Game 4 when they finished with a 42.7 FG%. (They were above 50% the previous two games). This might very well turn out to be the last game of the NBA bubble/season. But the Heat, who haven’t failed to cover in B2B games the entire playoffs, won’t go down without a fight. Play on MIAMI AAA |
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10-09-20 | Yankees v. Rays +1.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TAMPA BAY (RUN LINE) It’s come down to one game for the Yankees and the Rays as Game 5 is Friday night with the winner moving on (to face the Astros) in the ALCS and the loser going home. After staying alive with a 5-1 win in Game 4 last night, the Yankees are favored here as they’ve got Gerrit Cole on the mound. As great as he’s been over the last month, a lot of his success has to do with run support and we don’t think Cole can necessarily count on that tonight. Tampa Bay is taking a different approach as Tyler Glasnow, who started the Game 2 win, will open. From there, we’re likely to see Blake Snell and others. With Glasnow, not only did he strike out 10 Yankees in just five innings back in Game 2, he also has a 10-0 team start record in his L10 starts! Over the L7 starts, Glasnow has a sub 1.00 WHIP. So we've got full confidence in him for however long he’s in there tonight. The Rays pitching depth is such that there will be no drop off when they do decide to make the change. (Snell is a former Cy Young winner!) There has yet to be a one-run game in this series, but remember that Game 1 was 4-3 heading into the ninth inning. We say that Tampa Bay does no worse than a one-run loss in Game 5 and we obviously give them a great shot at winning “outright!” Play on TAMPA BAY +1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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10-09-20 | Louisville -4 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 27-46 | Loss | -110 | 58 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LOUISVILLE For the second straight day in College Football, we’re a bit perplexed by a line move. It was only three weeks ago that Louisville was ranked 18th in the country. Now they are laying a very small number to a Georgia Tech team that simply isn’t very good. Yes, the Cardinals have dropped two straight. But those losses came to Miami and Pittsburgh, both of whom were top 25 teams at the time (Miami is now in the Top 10). Georgia Tech is probably the worst team in the entire ACC and also coming off two straight losses. Their losses were more severe though as they were beaten 49-21 by UCF and 37-20 by Syracuse. The Yellow Jackets lone win was by three points over struggling Florida State, a game that featured a long weather delay. The Jackets’ defense is probably in a lot of trouble Friday night. They gave up 37 to a Syracuse team that had previously scored just 16 pts in two games. Louisville comes in averaging over 400 yards/game behind QB Malik Cunningham. Ga Tech is 0-5 SU/ATS L5 as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. Play on LOUISVILLE AAA |
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10-08-20 | Bucs -5 v. Bears | Top | 19-20 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TB In a year where scoring is at an all-time record pace, the Bears seem to be a little “slow on the uptake.” They are averaging only 21.3 points per game, which ranks in the bottom quarter of the league, and that number would be even lower were it not for a couple of miracle 4th quarter comebacks against Detroit and Atlanta, two of the worst defensive teams in football. Switching to Nick Foles at QB produced a “one-week miracle” against Atlanta, but had no effect last week when the Bears faced the tough defense of the Colts. Up until a “garbage-time” drive late in the 4th quarter, Foles and the Bears offense had produced all of 3 points and 179 total yards vs. Indy. Now, on a short week, they must deal with Tom Brady and the Buccaneers, who have won three straight (averaging 32.3 points/game) since a season-opening loss to the Saints (whom they held below 300 total yards). The Bucs had almost 500 yards of offense last week in a comeback effort over the Chargers. Brady threw TD passes to five different receivers. Chicago is 4-12 ATS its last 16 games and 0-6 ATS its L6 vs. teams with winning records. That 3-0 start was a total mirage as they beat three teams that are now a combined 1-11 SU. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA |
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10-08-20 | Tulane +7 v. Houston | Top | 31-49 | Loss | -118 | 35 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TULANE The line move earlier in the week is something we found to be rather curious. Houston has yet to even play a game! They’ve obviously tried. But five games have had to be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19. That’s insane. This is a team coming off its worst season in 15 years as they went 4-8 SU in 2019. Injuries really took their toll on the Cougars last year. Coach Dana Holgorsen is bringing in a TON of transfers (33!) this year, but also lost QB D’Eriq King to Miami via the transfer portal and it can’t be understated how significant that is. Tulane has already played three games this season and would be 3-0 if not for a stunning 2nd half collapse at home vs. Navy. Two weeks ago, the Green Wave put up 66 points in a total beatdown of Southern Miss, which was the second road win of the season. Their defense has also been pretty good as it ranks third among AAC teams in total yards per game allowed (368.3). Houston’s defense gave up 35.5 points/game vs. FBS foes last season including 38 in a last second loss at Tulane. Not only do we think the underdog will cover the spread here, there’s a very good chance they take the game outright. Play on TULANE AAA |
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10-08-20 | Rays v. Yankees -130 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NY YANKEES Scoring runs really hasn’t been an issue for the Yankees as they have 40 in five playoff games so far. It’s slowing down the Tampa Bay offense that is now the priority as they look to stay alive in Game 4 of the ALDS (in San Diego). The Rays, whose lineup includes the scorching hot Randy Arozarena, has gone off for 7 homers and 15 runs these last two games. The burden for slowing them down falls on New York’s starter Jordan Montgomery, who will be making his first career playoff start tonight and his first start of any kind since September 24th. While Montgomery’s ERA isn’t all that great, his WHIP of 1.08 in the last three starts is certainly something to lean on here. The number of runs given up relative to the number of baserunners he allowed seems high, so it’s fair to say Montgomery pitched better in the regular season than the raw numbers seem to suggest. He also had a 24:3 strikeout to walk ratio in his last three starts. Tampa Bay is opting for the opener route, first using Ryan Thompson and then Ryan Yarbrough is the probable pitcher to follow. The Yankees need to take advantage of no dominant starter being in there. This is a lineup that’s homered 14 times in five games. They are 35-16 L51 playoff games when favored. Play on NY YANKEES AAA |
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10-07-20 | FC Cincinnati v. Philadelphia -149 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 22 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PHILADELPHIA The Philadelphia Union, currently 4th in the MLS Standings, will look to strengthen their position in what looks to be an easy one against bottom feeder Cincinnati FC. The goal difference between these two clubs is pretty wide. Philly has scored 25 times while conceding only 13 and Cincinnati FC has scored only 8 goals (a league low) while conceding 23. These teams did play to a 0-0 draw two weeks ago at Nippert Stadium. But with the Union now as the home side, look for a much different result. The Union’s recent form has been quite good as they’d been unbeaten over five matches before running into Toronto FC Saturday night. Toronto FC is a top tier team, however, and there’s no shame in that 2-1 loss (that saw Philly score first). Meanwhile, Cincinnati FC has been kept clean in three straight games, one of which was the draw with the Union and the other two being losses. This is a side that has failed to score at all in eight of its last 10 games. The other two saw them score just a goal apiece. An easy fade Wednesday. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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10-07-20 | Marlins v. Braves -190 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 17 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER With a huge 7th inning, Atlanta powered past Miami 9-5 in Game 1. That was a good result on this end as we took the Braves. For a while there, things looked a bit dicey. The Braves were down 4-3 entering the home half of the 7th, but that’s when they sprung for six runs as the Marlins bullpen really failed starter Sandy Alcantara. Unfortunately for Miami, Alcantara can’t pitch every day. While charged with five runs, Alcantara only gave up three. We’ve got less faith in a quality start from Game 2 starter Pablo Lopez as he didn’t have any such outing in six away starts in the regular season. This will be Lopez’s postseason debut and he’s up against the second highest scoring team in baseball. One of Lopez’s three starts vs. Atlanta in the regular season saw him give up seven runs in 1 ⅔. For what it’s worth, Miami has scored five runs in two of its three playoff games. So they should be able to put enough on the board to help Game 2 go Over. The Braves go with Ian Anderson, who is off an excellent start in the 1st round vs. Cincinnati. But Anderson didn’t win either of his 2020 starts vs. the Marlins. Over is 20-9-4 L33 times Atlanta has been a favorite. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-06-20 | Lakers v. Heat +7.5 | Top | 102-96 | Win | 100 | 26 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI Turns out that people were writing off Miami a little earlier than they should have. As a 9-point underdog, the Heat won Game 3 outright, 115-104. They were led by Jimmy Butler’s triple double of 40 points, 11 rebounds and 13 assists. That’s just a tremendous individual effort in the wake of the injuries to both Bam Adebayo and Goran Dragic. Neither of those two are guaranteed to return for Game 4 (though Adebayo has said “he hopes to”). Nevertheless, even without Adebayo and Dragic, Miami starters outscored their Lakers brethren 89-51 in Game 3. The Heat have shot better than 50% overall the L2 games, so they’re pretty locked in offensively right now. As we’ve talked about before, there’s a lot of talent on hand for coach Erik Spoelstra, such as Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson and Jae Crowder. All three of those players were in double figures in Game 3. For the Lakers, beyond LeBron James and Anthony Davis, there isn’t exactly a ton of talent depth. Though the Lakers have not dropped two straight in any playoff series so far, it is Miami that owns the better ATS record (13-4-1) this postseason and, while the number is down from Game 3, they are still getting too many points here. LA is just 2-8-1 ATS the L11 times they have been off an ATS loss. We never stopped believing that the Heat could compete in this series and taking the points is the way to go for Game 4! Play on MIAMI AAA |