This is a 10* play on UNDER Hornets-Nets

Brooklyn got surprisingly torched by Washington Wednesday night as they gave up 125 points. While that was going on, Charlotte was blowing a double digit second half lead and lost to Houston. With two playoff hopefuls coming off home losses, this game takes on a real importance. So I wouldn't look for a shootout. Before the upset loss to the Wizards, the Nets had held San Antonio to just 85 points in an impressive win. So giving up 40 more to an also-ran the next game was not expected. The good news here is Charlotte isn't good on the road where they only average 108.4 PPG. The Hornets haven't played on the road since before the All Star Break. Their final four games before the Break were all on the road and they went 1-3, scoring 93 pts or less in the three losses. So I don't expect them to do well offensively tonight and also key is the Hornets' 8-0 Under record when playing with revenge for a home loss. Last Friday, they lost at home to Brooklyn 117-115. This rematch will be a lower-scoring game. Play UNDER Charlotte-Brooklyn

AAA

This is an 8* play on Brown

Not sure what the reason is for this line being bet down so much, but Brown is now a really great value play. The Bears are at home, facing a Columbia team that they already defeated on the road. They come in on a three-game win streak, having just beaten both Harvard and Dartmouth here at home. Columbia has just one win in its last eight games and it was by two points. So the Lions aren't likely to be roaring on the road. They are 3-11 SU in road/neutral site games and giving up an average of 78.5 points in those contests. Brown is 11-2 SU at home where it averages 81.5 PPG. All signs point to laying the relatively short number with the home team in this one. The Bears were able to win at Columbia despite making only three three-pointers in the game. Brown has yet to lose as a favorite this year as they are 8-0 in the role. Play on BROWN

AAA

This is an 8* play on CAL POLY

Cal State Fullerton is only 13-14 overall this season, but they're 9-4 in the Big West and that's the second best record in the conference. But they were losers last Saturday to UCSB, falling by 15 as a four-point dog. It was just the second loss in the last 11 games. The team the Titans host Thursday has become somewhat familiar with losing as Cal Poly has dropped 10 of its last 12 games. They are in last place in the Big West, but did win their last game, which was at home against Hawaii. The Mustangs were eight point underdogs and won the game by eight. CS Fullerton is only 9-16 ATS overall and 2-6 ATS at home. Six of their last nine wins have come by seven points or fewer. Play on CAL POLY

AAA

This is a 10* play on OKLAHOMA CITY 

Oklahoma City has not covered any of its last four contests. The most recent one was a 121-112 loss at Denver. The previous three all saw them fail to cover as a favorite. The only SU win in this stretch was a double overtime game vs. Utah. Today, they'll host a Philadelphia team that has had its own problems since returning from All Star Weekend. The Sixers have won two of the games, but barely as they beat Miami by four and New Orleans by only one. Depending when one bet that New Orleans game, it could have been a win or loss. Using the closing line of Sixers -2.5, it would be the third straight ATS loss for the team. I think some may be surprised over the size of this line, but remember Philly still doesn't have Joel Embiid. With a healthy Embiid in the lineup, they lost to the Thunder last month. They also won't have Boban Marjanovic in the lineup tonight. But perhaps more pertinent of all here is the Thunder's 19-game win streak over the Sixers, which is the longest active streak by one team over another in the league. Philly has beaten OKC just one time since the move from Seattle -- in 2008. Love the Thunder here as they are due to break out. Play on OKLAHOMA CITY

AAA

This is a 10* play on Arkansas State

Georgia State is tied with Georgia Southern for second place in the Sun Belt, one game behind first place Texas State. Arkansas State is much further down the standings, several games off the pace. But this only meeting of the season should be closer than anticipated. The visiting Red Wolves come in one a two-game win streak. Both wins were at home, but they are 6-1 ATS their last seven road games with a total of 150 to 154.5. Georgia State is off a bad loss at Coastal Carolina where they gave up 95 points. They trailed by 25 at halftime. Too many points to lay here as it's a team unaccustomed to laying so many against a team that typically doesn't get as many. Play on ARKANSAS STATE

AAA

This is a 10* play on BAYLOR

Baylor and Texas have a huge game tonight in Waco as both are looking to establish themselves as NCAA Tournament worthy teams. The latest "Bracketology" projections have both teams in, but Texas would seem to be in a pretty precarious state, given their 15-12 SU record. Unfortunately for tonight, the Longhorns will have to go in short-handed as their leading scorer Kerwin Roach II has been suspended for an off the court matter. They'll get no sympathy from a Baylor team, who has had to navigate the season without two of its top players, Tristan Clark and King McClure. Plus the Bears have revenge from a 12-point loss in Austin earlier this month. Baylor has performed surprisingly well without the two players, winning three of its last four games. I expect Texas to struggle without Roach. Play on BAYLOR

AAA

This is a 10* on UNDER Pacers-Mavs

Indiana is a top defensive team in this league, but of course they're carrying on without their top scorer (Victor Oladipo) the rest of the way. So I'd expect them to be a strong Under play more often that not and tonight is one of those times. Now all three of their games since the All Star Break have gone Over. I actually just played against them on Monday when they suffered a four-point loss in Detroit. Tonight though, they are playing a Dallas team mired in a five-game slump where they haven't won nor covered even once. Last month when these teams met in Indiana, it was a 111-99 Pacers victory that stayed Under the total. A similar result would not surprise me, although this time the Mavs probably keep it closer. Partly because Dallas is a much better defensive team at home. The Mavs are 16-7 Under when facing an Eastern Conference opponent this year. Play UNDER Indiana-Dallas

AAA

This is an 8* play on Portland

I think its pretty apparent that Boston has a lot of problems going on right now. Last night, they were handed their worst defeat of the season, by Toronto, 118-95. They have little time to sulk as tonight they return home to face the red-hot Blazers. The Celtics are now 0-3 since the break and rapidly running out of excuses. Now all three losses did take place on the road. But Portland has had no such difficulty winning on the road, going 3-0 there since the break. It's a four-game win streak overall for the Blazers, who have also covered the spread in all four games. The latest win came in Cleveland Monday night by a score of 123-110. When coming off a double digit victory this season, Portland has gone 16-5 ATS in its next game. Given the recent form of the two teams here, I don't know how one can make a case for Boston, who is also 3-6 ATS playing in the second night of a back to back. Play on PORTLAND

AAA

This is a 7* play on Calgary

While on the road and playing the second night of a back to back, we do not anticipate the Flames having much difficulty winning tonight in New Jersey. Calgary is certainly "back on track" now with six straight wins, including 3-1 over the Islanders last night. This team leads the Western Conference with 87 points, which is a far cry from the 58 points that the last place Devils have. The Devils are off a win, 2-1 over Montreal on Monday, but have not done a good job at staying successful this season. What I mean by that is they've produced back to back victories only one time since the All Star Break. They are only 9-20 when facing an opponent that has a winning record. Calgary is 22-11 vs. sub-.500 foes. With the Flames having allowed just three goals in the last three games, this one is as easy as it looks. Play on CALGARY

AAA

This is a 7* play on VEGAS

The faithful in Vegas are not used to seeing the home team lose, but lose they have as the Golden Knights come into Tuesday having dropped five out of the last six at T-Mobile Arena. That's highly uncharacteristic and I suspect it's just a matter of time before they get back on track. Tonight seems like as good a spot as any as Dallas already lost here once this season. After getting shutout in three of their previous five games, the Stars got off the mat to beat the Blackhawks 4-3 in overtime Sunday. But this team has all sorts of issues scoring, especially on the road where they average the fewest number of goals per game in the league. In its brief franchise history, Vegas is 6-2 SU when coming off three straight defeats. Dallas has been giving up lots of shots on goal lately and this is an area where the Golden Knights can capitalize. Play on VEGAS

AAA

This is a 10* play on North Carolina

I said that there was no way Syracuse could reasonably be expected to compete Saturday night vs. Duke, even at home and with the Blue Devils playing without Zion Williamson. This is because of the situation with Jim Boeheim trumping everything. If you haven't been following the news, a car driven by Boeheim struck and killed a pedestrian late last week. The fact Boeheim is continuing to coach is somewhat mind-blowing, given that circumstance. The Orange actually played better than I though they would vs. Duke, but still lost by 10 at the Carrier Dome. Now they must turnaround and hit the road to face the team that just beat Duke, that being North Carolina. The Tar Heels are as hot as anyone in the country right now. Yes, they took full advantage of Williamson getting hurt when they beat Duke, but this is a team that has won its last two games - both against very good teams (Duke and Florida State) by a combined 34 points despite shooting just 9 of 40 from three-point land. They should destroy Syracuse tonight in Chapel Hill as the Orange lack the offensive punch to compete with a team that averages 88.4 PPG. Play on NORTH CAROLINA 

AAA

This is a 10* play UNDER Boston-Toronto

Eastern Conference heavyweights collide North of the Border with both teams looking to bounce back from bad losses. Boston lost in Chicago Saturday while Toronto was upset by Orlando Sunday afternoon. The Celtics hold the edge in the season series, winning 2 of 3, but the home team is a perfect 3-0. Looking at the total, it just seems too high. Boston was held to only 97 points in a loss to Milwaukee last Thursday. There was no excuse for the poor defensive effort against the Bulls, but regardless I expect them to be better at that end of the floor this evening. Toronto was also just held under 100 pts in its last game. This figures to take on more of a "playoff-like" intensity, so a high-scoring affair seems unlikely. Both teams sport a top six defensive efficiency rating. It's been all Overs in the three previous head to head games this season, but this one will be different as it figures to be a pretty fierce battle. The Under is 8-3 in Toronto's last 11 games vs. teams with a winning record and 7-1 in Boston's previous eight road games. Play UNDER Boston-Toronto

AAA

This is a 7* play on PHILADELPHIA

Already in the midst of a slide, this is a very bad spot for Buffalo. After losing 5-3 last night in Toronto, the Sabres now must play one of the league's hottest teams in Philadelphia. The Flyers stormed back from a two-goal deficit in the third period to beat Pittsburgh on Saturday and have now won 13 out of their last 17 games. Meanwhile, Buffalo has dropped five out of its last six. Given how things have been going, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Philly ended up with more points at season's end, which seemed highly unlikely when Buffalo was winning 10 straight back in November. But aside from that one streak, the Sabres are just 19-33 in all other games. That's just not very good, nor is their 11-16-4 road record. The Flyers won 6-2 the last time they faced Buffalo. They've won the last three meetings at home as well. Play on PHILADELPHIA

AAA

This is a 10* play OVER Northern Colorado-Montana

I don't think that the end of Northern Colorado's 9-game Under streak made many headlines over the weekend, but it did end. The Bears lost an overtime game to Eastern Washington, 88-78. Let it be known though that the game would have gone Over even without OT - by double digits. It's not as if Northern Colorado is a poor offensive team. They average 77.2 points per game. That Under streak was more a byproduct of them playing bad Big Sky teams in games with pretty high totals. Here they face the Big Sky's best offensive - and overall - team in Montana. This is a pretty important game between the conference's 1st and 2nd place teams. Northern Colorado is two games back and was beaten badly - 88-64 - by Montana in the first meeting. That was at home too. Montana averages 80.0 PPG in Missoula and has scored at least 83 points in five out of its last six games (Over is 5-1). The Grizzlies are an excellent shooting team and the last five meetings with Northern Colorado have all gone Over. Tonight's total is actually lower than it was for the first meeting, which seems like a mistake by the oddsmakers. Play OVER Northern Colorado-Montana

AAA

This is an 8* play on NEW ORLEANS

I've bet against Philadelphia each of their last two games and gone 2-0 ATS. They barely got by Miami, winning by just four points at home. Then they got blown out by Portland, also at home. Now they take their act on the road and one player that won't be making the trek to the Big Easy is Joel Embiid. Embiid has missed those last two games, so that helps explain the slide. But giving up 130 points to the Blazers was definitely not a good look, Embiid or no Embiid. New Orleans just beat the Lakers Saturday night and did so with Anthony Davis not even suiting up. Davis should play tonight and he'd join seven teammates that were in double figures vs. LA, a 128-point effort that included the Pelicans highest scoring 1st quarter (43 points) all season. The Pelicans have an 18-11 record at home and thus looking like a strong play on the Monday card. Philly has gotten to play six out of its last seven games at home with the one road game coming against the Knicks. Their record is only .500 (14-14 SU) on the road. Play on NEW ORLEANS

AAA

This is a 10* play on DETROIT

Initially, things weren't looking so good for Indiana without Victor Oladipo. They lost the first four games after it was announced their leading scorer was done for the year with a knee injury. But since then, the Pacers are 8-1 with the only loss coming to the team with the league's best record, Milwaukee. They've gone 7-2 ATS in those games. But on Monday, it appears as if they'll have to overcome more injuries with Myles Turner and Tyreke Evans still on the questionable list. They'll also have to overcome a Detroit team that is starting to build some of its own momentum after winning five out of its last six. That win streak has the Pistons in the coveted eighth spot in the Eastern Conference. They just went on the road and whipped Miami by 23 points. Tonight is a big revenge game in the Motor City as the Pistons lost to the Pacers by 37 back in December. Indiana is only 1-4 ATS on the division road and I think they are poised to lose another tonight. Play on DETROIT

AAA

This is an 8* play on MONTREAL

Montreal really needs this game. They just lost a game to Toronto, 6-3, a result I predicted would happen (took the Maple Leafs). That keeps them in fourth place in the Atlantic, but also just one point ahead of the two teams tied for the other Wild Card spot. Just a slight drop and the Canadiens could be out of the playoff picture entirely. Lucky for tonight, they are up against a last place team. New Jersey figures to finish at the bottom of the Metropolitan, a place where they've been most of this season. They just gave up five goals in a loss to a bad Rangers team and are 29th in the league in number of goals given up. The Habs should be in a better position as they have either led or at least been tied in the third period in four of their last five losses. This includes the 6-3 loss in Toronto where they gave up a shocking four goals in the third period, three of them coming in the final two minutes. Play on MONTREAL

AAA

This is a 10* play on UNDER Blues-Wild

Anyone thinking that St. Louis was apt to slide after having a franchise 11-game win streak broken best think again. The Blues did lose in Dallas Thursday, snapping that 11-game win streak. But they bounced right back with a 2-1 win over Boston last night. Other than that loss to Dallas, scoring on the Blues has been difficult. Three shutouts in the last 10 days alone, then they gave up just the one goal last night. Minnesota is a team that's gone Under in four straight. So this figures to be a low-scoring game. Two of those last four games for the Wild have seen them get shutout. Yes, one was against the Blues, a 4-0 loss. When playing at home and the total is 5.5, Minnesota is 11-3 Under this season. They're also 4-0 Under in Sunday games. Play UNDER St. Louis-Minnesota 

AAA

This is an 8* play on ARIZONA STATE

California is very bad. That shouldn't be any kind of newsflash for a team that is now 5-22 overall. But every time you think things may have bottomed out in Berkeley, they find a way to get worse. The latest setback came to an Arizona team that had lost and failed to cover seven in a row. It was also Cal's 15th loss in a row. They are 0-14 vs. the rest of the Pac 12 and 0-12 away from home. Their last win was before Christmas and against a San Jose State team that is among the very worst in the country. So Arizona State should roll tonight as they have already beaten Cal by double digits on the road. Now they get the Bears at home. The Sun Devils have posted two straight double digit wins, including 80-62 over Stanford on Wednesday. Other than Washington, ASU is probably the best team in the Pac 12. Maybe that's not saying much, but they'll win big Sunday. Play on ARIZONA STATE

AAA

This is a 10* play on OVER Clippers-Nuggets

Look for "sparks" to fly in this Sunday afternoon matchup as the Nuggets play host to the Clippers. What I mean by that is that you should expect plenty of points here. Obviously, Denver can score. Especially at home where they average an impressive 116.1 PPG. That scoring average is a real key as to why they have gone 25-4 SU in all home games this season. The Clippers are no slouch offensively either as they average 114.2 PPG overall. Both teams hit right around those respective scoring averages in their first games after the All Star Break. LA has gone Over in four straight with three of those games having totals in a similar high range like this one. The last time these teams played, the game did stay Under but that was largely due to the Clippers having an off night across the board, including 25% from three-point range and missing 8 of 26 foul shots. Still the game almost went Over. The Clippers are 6-2 Over this year in road games with a total of 230 points or higher. Denver has gone Over in six of its last seven games against opponents with winning records. Play OVER LA Clippers-Denver

AAA

This is an 8* play on MICHIGAN STATE

Finally, the two top teams in the Big 10 get a chance to play one another. There's probably an argument to be made that Michigan State would have liked to play this game a little sooner in the season considering some of the attrition suffered on the injury front. But the Spartans keep on winning in spite of those injuries and I think are a great value getting points Sunday in Ann Arbor. Tom Izzo's team certainly hasn't had much difficulty covering the spread this season as their ATS record is a sterling 19-8. They'd covered three straight before getting caught laying 15.5 to Rutgers earlier in the week and they only won by 11. This will be only the third time getting points. While their ATS record as an underdog so far is 0-2 and Michigan is 16-0 SU at home, I still rate the visitors as the better team here. I was quite surprised to see the Wolverines have won the last three games in this rivalry. Not this time. Take the points. Play on MICHIGAN STATE

AAA

This is a 10* play on CLEVELAND

Cleveland is actually favored here as they are coming off a win and Memphis is off a loss, last night, to the Clippers. While the idea of the Cavs laying points may scare off some, I think the situation calls for it as their opponents are both unrested and incredibly short-handed. Going on the road in the second night of a back to back is bad enough for a slumping Memphis team, but doing so without Jaren Jackson Jr, who was the #4 pick in last year's draft, makes things even tougher. The Grizzlies have lost 15 of their last 19 games anyway and are 9-21 SU on the road. The fact that they blew a fourth quarter lead last night makes this even tougher. Cleveland played one of its better games of the season Thursday night, beating Phoenix 111-98 and they led comfortably most of the way. Kevin Love is now back, so the Cavs aren't as bad as they look on paper. Memphis is 2-6 SU and ATS in the second game of a back to back this year. Play on CLEVELAND 

AAA

This is a 7* play on TORONTO

It's really time for Toronto to get going. They have the unfortunate distinction of having both the league's best (Tampa Bay) and hottest (Boston) team in their division. That's left the Leafs in third place in the Atlantic, making the margin for error incredibly slim. It hasn't helped that they've lost three in a row. Tonight, they'll host Montreal, who happens to be right behind them in the Atlantic. It's only a three-point gap between third and fourth place and once you drop to 4th, then you have to rely on the Wild Card to make the playoffs. That's no guarantee in the Atlantic with five viable playoff teams over in the Metropolitan. So tonight's game has some major importance. I just think Toronto happens to be the significantly better team here and I can't see them losing what would be a season-high 4th straight game. This is actually the first time they've even lost three in a row. The Canadiens have not won a road game since January. Sure, they only played three in February, but they were outscored 12-4 in them. Play on TORONTO

AAA

This is a 10* play on DUKE

This ACC showdown has taken on a rather ominous tone due to some shocking events over the course of the week. Duke lost superstar Zion Williamson to injury just 33 seconds into the North Carolina game on Wednesday and was predictably unable to overcome his absence, losing 88-72 to their rival. But really that's nothing compared to what happened with Syracuse coach Jim Boeheim just a few hours later. A car being driven by Boeheim struck and killed a pedestrian on a highway. Unbelievably, Boeheim will coach Saturday. So that's the backdrop for what is a big revenge game for the Blue Devils. They were ill-prepared to deal with the Williamson injury when it happened, but now go into this game knowing he won't be playing and they've had 72 hours to prepare. Duke obviously has a lot of talent and it's not like they need any more motivation than the fact they lost at home to Syracuse last month, I don't see how Boeheim can have his team adequately prepared given his circumstance. Duke is 12-2 straight up when coming off an ACC loss the last three seasons. Play on DUKE

AAA

This is an 8* play on St. Joe's

I'm not sure UMass should be favored against anyone in the A-10, even at home, given they're the last place team in the conference. The Minutemen are just 9-17 SU overall with a 2-11 A-10 record. But here's the real kicker. They are 0-12 ATS as a favorite this season, losing nine of those games straight up! Most of those games have taken place here in Amherst where they're just 2-10 ATS overall. UMass already lost to St. Joe's earlier in the year in what was a two-point game. St. Joe's won despite a 33.9 FG% and making only 4 of 23 three-point attempts. While the road has been far from kind to the Hawks, today's game would certainly qualify as the most "winnable" (away from home) on the Atlantic 10 slate. UMass just lost to a bad George Washington team by 12 on Wednesday, which was another time they were favored (-2.5 on the road). Given their ATS record as chalk, I don't see how one couldn't fade them Saturday. Play on ST. JOE'S

AAA

This is an 8* play on PORTLAND

Despite an off-night from leading scorer Damian Lillard, the Blazers were still able to go on the road and beat Brooklyn - handily - Thursday night, winning by a final score of 113-99. They were just three-point favorites. One has to imagine Lillard will play better here, even if it is against a tougher opponent. He shot just 5 of 21 against the Nets. This is a 26.0 PPG scorer mind you, now backed by Enes Kanter, who contributed 18 pts and nine rebounds in his Blazers debut. As for Philly, they struggled to beat the Heat here Thursday night as they were without Joel Embiid. It looks like they'll be without their starting center for at least a week, so those struggles could continue even with a strong-looking roster. They trailed Miami going into the fourth quarter and with as little as 1:56 to go. While a late surge got them the win, the Sixers still failed to cover, which was good as I bet against them. I'll do the same again here knowing that Portland crushed them earlier this year by 34, another game where the Sixers didn't have Embiid. Philly is a season-best 17 games over .500 right now and likely to drop a game or two. The Blazers are 14-5 ATS coming off a double digit win. Play on PORTLAND

AAA

This is a 10* play on Calgary -1.5 (puck line)

Anaheim is really bad and I'm not sure that the level of awareness is there. It helps that coming into tonight the Ducks have won two straight games. This masks the fact that they have been outscored by 50 goals this season, which is a league worst. Tonight, the Ducks find themselves in Calgary facing a Flames side that is quite prolific at scoring on home ice and I see a blowout being in the cards. Anaheim has won 11 of the past 14 matchups, but that's all in the past now. The Flames are the far superior team in 2019 as they have the most points in the Western Conference (81) and average an impressive 4.2 goals per game here at the Saddledome. They've scored 14 goals in the last three games alone, the last two of which were here at home. Winning by multiple goals tonight should not be hard as Anaheim's last six setbacks have all been by at least a three goal margin. The Flames are one of only five teams in the league that outscore teams by at least a full goal per game when at home. Play CALGARY on the PUCK LINE (-1.5)

AAA

This is a 10* play on CHARLOTTE

Charlotte starts the 2nd half of their season with a key division home game vs. Washington. The Hornets, unlike the Wizards, are likely playoff bound this year thanks to a watered down Eastern Conference. But just because the East is so watered down doesn't mean the Hornets should take a playoff berth for granted. They lost four of five going into All Star Weekend, but now return home where they are a very strong 19-9 SU while averaging 113.3 PPG. Though the loss took place a while ago, there is revenge in play here with the Wizards, who beat the Hornets 130-126 back on December 29th. But that was in D.C. and back when Washington still had John Wall in the lineup (Wall is done for the year). The Wiz are a really lousy road team (8-23 SU) and road games where the oddsmakers expect a lot of scoring have REALLY been their undoing. The team's ATS record in away games with a total of at least 230 pts is 0-6-1 and they've lost all seven straight up. Charlotte is 1-9 SU in games where Tony Parker doesn't play, but he's expected back in the lineup for tonight. Cody Zeller is also now healthy. I look for the Hornets to roll in their first game since the break. Play on CHARLOTTE

AAA

This is a 10* UNDER Niagara-Rider

Back on January 13th, Rider beat Niagara 104-84. That was the game before the Broncs apparenty decided to bankrupt its fanbase. Since that win, which was not surprisingly their best offensive effort of the year, Rider is an unsightly 1-10 at the betting window (ATS) and even more problematic is that they've fallen from 5-0 SU in the conference to just 9-6. But they did win both of their games last week, even covering the spread in one of them. For this rematch with Niagara, I don't see Rider shooting anywhere close to as well as they did in the first meeting (they were 61%). Fortunately for the Broncs, they defend well at home, which will counteract any offensive decline. For the season, they are allowing just 65.2 points per game. That's almost 10 PPG less than their overall season average. So an Under seems to be in order for tonight as Niagara isn't any kind of "great shakes" offensively, plus they're already 10-2 Under in road games. The total is just too high here. Play UNDER Niagara-Rider

AAA

This is a 10* play on St. Mary's

St. Mary's is a good team, but hasn't been covering spreads lately. They are 1-6 ATS last seven games. But tonight is a situation conducive for them to win big. They're playing a Pacific team they already beat, by 12, early in the month. That was one of the games they did not cover, but it was close as they were 14-point favorites. The key was Pacific shot 67 percent in the first half. That won't happen again in tonight's rematch. In the two games since playing SMU, the Tigers have scored 59 points twice. They have scored more than 66 just one time in the last 11 games. Because they are on the road this time, St. Mary's doesn't need to win by as much to cover the spread. It's not asking too much for the Gaels to win by double digits again vs. a team barely averaging 60 points per game in WCC action. Play on ST. MARY'S

AAA

This is an 8* play OVER MIAMI-PHILLY

As for the total, this should be a high scoring game. The Heat are obviously stronger on offense now with Dragic and Jones back. An interesting note about Miami is they have a better record on the road than at home. That tidbit applies to our side play, but also here as even with Dragic missing all that time, the Heat still score more on the road than they do at home (slightly). Philly scores a lot more at home (119.1 PPG) than on the road, so even without Embiid, they figure to finish with a decent number tonight. It won't be enough to cover the spread, but it will still be a decent number. The Sixers haven't scored fewer than 106 points in any game since the new year. Play OVER MIAMI-PHILADELPHIA

AAA

This is an 8* play on MIAMI

I'll be playing both the side and total in this Miami-Philly game. For the side, I'm taking the Heat plus the points. They'll be getting both Goran Dragic and Derrick Jones Jr back in the rotation tonight. This is great news, particularly with Dragic, who is their starting point guard. To me, this is too many points for Philly to be laying in the first game after a long layoff. It's a situation that's conducive to suffering an upset. I know the 76ers look strong on paper, but Joel Embiid isn't playing tonight. He's going to miss the next week due to a knee injury. I know it's been awhile since they last played, but the Sixers are just 5-12 ATS off a double digit win. Before the All Star Break, they beat the Knicks by 15. Miami won at Dallas right before the Break and Dallas is a good home team. They can win here as well. Take the points. Play on MIAMI

AAA

This is an 8* play UNDER SUNS-CAVS

What a game this is. I'm being facetious, of course. Phoenix is the worst team in the Western Conference. Cleveland would be the worst team in the Eastern Conference if not for the Knicks. Look for an ugly game. Defensively, are these teams any good? Obviously not. But they're not good offensively either. The Cavs average only 103.0 PPG, which is last in the East and second worst in the whole league. Phoenix isn't much better at 105.9 PPG. That's 2nd worst in the West and they don't have TJ Warren (one of their top two scorers). When you look at the Cavs last game, a 148-139 loss to Brooklyn, note that it was a triple overtime game. It was 109-109 at the end of regulation. Before that, they had not topped 107 points in five games. The Suns haven't topped 107 in the last four games. Play UNDER PHOENIX-CLEVELAND

AAA

This is a 10* play OVER CAPS-LEAFS

In what has been an incredible O/U run for us, we've generally been targeting Overs in games with high totals like this one. It worked out yesterday as the Blackhawks and Red Wings combined for nine goals. Expect something similar here from Washington and Toronto. Neither team is any stranger to scoring goals.  Washington averages 3.4/game while Toronto is slightly better at 3.5. Granted, the Maple Leafs had some struggling scoring in their last two games, which you might want to pin on the fact they were playing on the road. But the two games before that, also on the road, saw them score 11 times. I don't see them having any trouble scoring tonight as they've faced Washington twice before and scored 10 goals in those two games. The Capitals are 14-7 Over in revenge spots in 2018-19 and 5-1 Over when coming off three or more consecutive road games. Play OVER Washington-Toronto

AAA

This is a 10* play on Fresno State

There's been a highly unusual pattern to emerge from past meetings between Air Force and Fresno State. Fresno State almost always wins (11 of the last 13 meetings), but Air Force usually leaves with the cash (10-2-1 ATS in those same 13 games). This pattern has really held true here in Fresno where the home team has won seven straight times, but the Flyboys have covered six of those times. With a double digit spread tonight, I can see how some might think this pattern will continue. However, I see something different unfolding, that being a lopsided win for FSU. This particular Air Force team is really bad on the road. They are 1-8 SU and averaging just 61.1 PPG. They've also only covered one of their last six games overall. Fresno State has won five of six, the lone exception being a one-point loss to Utah State. The Bulldogs average 78.2 points per game at home. Play on FRESNO STATE

AAA

This is an 8* play on the UNDER in UNC-DUKE

The sport's greatest rivalry is renewed tonight at Cameron Indoor Stadium. This is a big line for a battle of top eight teams, but Duke is #1 and the line does look to be about right. The total is also very high, also not surprising considering both teams topped 90 points the last time we saw them. But in a game where they're facing an opponent of roughly the same caliber, I can't see this being that high scoring. Both teams will score plenty. But Duke is holding teams to an average of 62.7 points per game at home and has a top five national defensive efficiency rating. The Under is a surprising 17-7 in all of their games and 17-5 when they are the favorite. They are also 14-3 Under after scoring more than 80 points their last game. UNC is 7-3 Under on the road and 8-4 Under in conference play. They have also gone Under 17 of the last 23 games with a total of 160 to 169.5 points. Play UNDER UNC-DUKE

AAA

This is a 10* play on OVER Chicago-Detroit

The Blackhawks have seen the Over hit in nine straight games now and the last one was the highest scoring yet as they beat Ottawa 8-7. That was a matchup of the two teams that have given up the most goals in the league. Here, Chicago will face a Detroit team that isn't quite as inept as Ottawa defensively, but is still bottom tier. So while we may not see another game with 15 goals scored, an Over is still a strong likelihood. During this nine-game Over stretch, Chicago has scored four or more goals itself seven times. They've scored at least five goals themselves six times. Detroit just got done playing a home and home against Philadelphia. They lost both games, one of them a 6-5 final. One positive for the Red Wings is that they are getting plenty of shots on goal of late. They've averaged 35.4 shots on goal the last five games. Not only have the last nine Chicago games gone Over the total, so too have 16 of the last 18. Add another to the list. Play OVER Chicago-Detroit

AAA

This is an 8* play on MICHIGAN STATE

Michigan State comes into tonight a little shorthanded, but not shorthanded enough to the point where they can't blow out Rutgers. Already without Joshua Langford (done for year), the Spartans are now without Nick Ward for an indefinite period of time due to a hairline fracture in his shooting (left) hand. But like I said, Sparty should still roll tonight. All the way back on November 30th, they opened up Big 10 play with an easy 11-point victory over the Scarlet Knights, in New Jersey. While MSU is dealing with some physical injuries, Rutgers must somehow overcome the emotional toll of losing on a buzzer beater to Iowa on Saturday. It was their fourth loss in five games and they seem to be heading down the tubes. Michigan State is one of the few teams in the country talented enough to overcome injuries. Play on MICHIGAN STATE

AAA

This is a *10* play on St. Louis

St. Louis continues to be the hottest team in the league as their remarkable run has now hit 10 in a row. Their last three wins have all been shutouts and all three games were on the road. Tonight, I look for this win streak to continue as they get to play host to a Toronto team whose number they have had for the past couple seasons. It's been five straight wins over the Maple Leafs (an old Norris Division rival!) including 4-1 way back in October. At that time, the Blues were playing nowhere near as well as they are now. The Leafs just got shutout in Arizona and while its been awhile since they've lost back to back games, I see that fate befalling them today. This has been a truly dominant stretch by the Blues, outscoring opponents 40-14. It's been led by goalie Binnington, who is 12-1-1 as a starter with a 1.43 GAA and .943 save percentage. You really can't go against this Blues team right now. Play on ST. LOUIS

AAA

This is an 8* play on DRAKE

Give credit to Drake as the season-ending injury to leading scorer Nick Norton has not really derailed their season in any way. Sure, initially, it looked like it might. Norton tore his ACL back in early January and the Bulldogs lost the next two games. But they've since won 9 of 12 and are still tied for 1st in the Missouri Valley at 9-5 SU. The team they are tied with is Loyola Chicago, who should be a familiar name based on last season's run to the Final Four. Drake has lost twice already to the Ramblers, so that puts them at a disadvantage for that top seed in next month's conference tournament. But a strong finish to the regular season could certainly go a long way and I don't see the Bulldogs losing at home to a Bradley team that's due for a letdown after four straight wins, three of them upsets. The Braves got blown out by Drake (lost by 17) on their home floor last month, and I don't see them performing a whole lot better on the road. Drake basically averages 80 points per game at home. Play on DRAKE

AAA

This is a 10* play on Wisconsin

Wisconsin certainly has some work to do. Because they've lost two straight, the Badgers almost certainly will fall out of the new top 25 when that poll is released later today. But don't make the mistake of thinking this isn't one of the 25 best teams in America.  Before losing to Michigan and Michigan State, both top 10 teams mind you, the Badgers had won six in a row. They had covered the spread in all six games as well. Tonight, they are going to play one of the six teams they beat during that streak, Illinois. They beat the Illini 72-60 back on Jan 23rd and that was on the road as 4.5-point favorites. The Illini come into this rematch riding their own four-game win streak, which includes three upsets, the latest taking place at Ohio State Thursday. But they seem ill-suited to compete against the Badgers as they've dropped four in a row to them, failing to cover all four times as well. Also, before beating Ohio State, the Illini had just one road win all season. Wisconsin is a very good defensive team and after being held below 60 pts in its last three games, they should do some damage offensively here. Play on WISCONSIN

AAA

This is a 10* OVER play on Lightning-Blue Jackets

We took the Over on Columbus' last game, which ended up being a 5-2 win for them and us. That game was against a Chicago team that is tied for having allowed the most goals in the league. It's a much different opponent Monday, but we should still anticipate a high scoring affair. That's because the Blue Jackets are now facing a Lightning team that leads the league in scoring. It's almost undisputed that Tampa Bay is the best team in the league right now and they come into Monday hot, on the heels of five consecutive victories. They've won the last two in shutout fashion, 6-0 and 3-0. But even though Columbus was shutout in their last home game (3-0 by the Islanders), I wouldn't look for such a fate to await them tonight. Over the L6 games, the Blue Jackets have scored at least three goals five times. So call that shutout loss an outlier. As for TB, well, they had scored five or more goals in four straight games before "only" scoring three against Montreal Saturday. In two previous games vs. Columbus this year, the Lightning have scored 8 and 4 goals. Play OVER Tampa Bay-Columbus. 

AAA

This is a 6* play on WASHINGTON

Anaheim is a very bad team, much worse than I think the public realizes at this point. We went into this a bit the last time I went against them, which also happened to be their last game, a 3-0 home loss to the Bruins. The Ducks' goal differential for the season is now -57, which is by far an away the worst such mark in the league. The next worst GD is -38 (Kings). Overall, Anaheim has won just three of its last 23 games. In the last six games, they've managed only five goals. Sunday's opponent is Washington and they scored five goals in their last game. The Caps can't afford to drop this game if they are to keep pace with the surging Islanders in the Metropolitan. The team they just beat (San Jose) had been as hot as anyone in this league. The fact that it was a road win was even more impressive as the Sharks have lost only four times on home ice all season. The Caps have won four of their last six and should cruise here against an Anaheim team that is last in the league in scoring. Play on WASHINGTON

AAA

This is a 10* play on ARIZONA

Arizona has lost six in a row, but don't give up on them just yet as I believe the Wildcats are due to have a breakout performance tonight in Boulder. Not only have the Wildcats lost six in a row, they've failed to cover the spread in all six games. Colorado is 4-0 SU/ATS its last four, so again, this looks like two teams heading in different directions. But sometimes that's exactly what you want as the underdog looks to be underappreciated in this one as Arizona beat Colorado earlier in the year, 64-56 as six-point favorites. It would seem as if the line has shifted too far for the rematch as Colorado has not been favored by this much against anybody since facing Cal back on January 24th. They were the underdog for three of the last four games and only -1.5 vs. Arizona State Wednesday, a game they won by only four points. This is the first time the Buffaloes have won four straight in conference play since the 2005-06 season. It's a most opportune time to fade them. Play on ARIZONA

AAA

This is an 8* Play on the OVER in Rangers-Penguins

The Rangers just turned in one of their better efforts of the year, scoring six times in an easy win at Buffalo Friday night. Though they continue to struggle, New York has now found the back of the net at least three times in seven of the last eight games. Four times during that same stretch, they've scored four or more goals in a game. This afternoon, they go up against a Pittsburgh side that rarely has any issues scoring. The Penguins have totaled 14 goals in the last four games alone and are a top five team in the league in goals per game. But they did lose yesterday, by a score of 5-4 here at home to the Calgary Flames. It was the second time in the last four games the Pens lost by a score of 5-4. Since the start of last season, these teams have met five times and all five games have gone Over the total. There has been a minimum of seven goals scored in all five games with the last matchup being a 7-2 final in Pittsburgh's favor. Given the amount of scoring we've seen from the two sides lately, another Over certainly seems to be in the cards. Play OVER Rangers-Penguins

AAA

analysis soon

This is a 10* OVER play on Blue Jackets-Blackhawks

We're switching courses here with Columbus as you may recall we played the Under in the Blue Jackets last game. That resulted in a 3-0 loss to the Islanders, but it's a very different opponent they are matched up with on Saturday. Whereas the Islanders are 1st in the league in goals allowed, Chicago is 30th. Helping matters further is the fact the Blackhawks scored five goals of their own in their most recent game. That was against New Jersey Thursday, here in the Windy City. Going back to before the All Star Break, the Blackhawks have really turned things around by winning eight out of their last nine games. They're still a last place team mind you, but they are scoring in bunches and the last seven games have all gone Over the total. Chicago has scored at least three goals in 15 consecutive games! Columbus is a top 10 team in scoring and should have little difficulty finding the back of the net here. After being involved in two straight shutouts (1 W, 1 L), this should be a more competitive high scoring affair. The last time Columbus was shutout, they came back and won 4-3 their next game. Play OVER Columbus-Chicago

AAA

This is a 10* play on BUTLER

Both DePaul and Butler are coming off losses. DePaul's was definitely worse, even though it came against a top 10 opponent. They were blown out by Marquette 92-73 at home. Butler lost by four at St. John's that same day (Tuesday). The Bulldogs are in much better position to rebound, even though they've lost four of six just like the Blue Demons. Butler won the first meeting, rather convincingly, exactly one month ago. It was an 87-69 game where they shot lights out. Interesting is that they won so handily on the road despite attempting just four free throws. DePaul remains pretty shaky on defense as they've only been favored twice in Big East play. Butler sees its scoring rise to 77.9 PPG at home and after watching them play three consecutive games decided by four points or less, this should be a far more comfortable result. They are simply the better team as they've already proven by winning 10 of the last 11 meetings. Play on BUTLER

AAA

This is a 10* play on WASHINGTON

Despite winning every conference game but one (their last one), Washington doesn't ever seem to get the respect that it deserves. That probably has to do with the fact the Pac 12 isn't very good this year. There's a good chance only one team from this league makes the NCAA Tournament. But presently, I don't think there's an argument that UW isn't the best team. They are head and shoulders above the rest defensively and tonight they'll face a rival that has been terrible most of this season. Washington State may have pulled off back to back upsets, winning at Arizona State (were +15.5) and Arizona (were +11.5), but before that the Cougs had lost every Pac 12 game but one. Washington is off their first conference loss here; 75-63 to Arizona State. But they've had a full week to recover. They'd gone 10-0 SU and ATS in conference play before that. That includes a 22-point win over Wazzu in Seattle. It shouldn't be much more difficult the second time around as I predict another double digit victory. Play on WASHINGTON

AAA

This is an 8* play on IOWA STATE

Iowa State invades Manhattan (Kansas, that is) for a game pitting two teams seemingly going in different directions. Kansas State has risen to the top of the Big 12 on the back of its outstanding defense. The Wildcats have won 9 of 10. Iowa State suffered an outright loss in its last game, falling 92-83 at home to TCU. But that game was exactly one week ago. The Cyclones have had more than enough time to prepare for this showdown where I believe they are the better team. I think it's instructive to note Kansas State wasn't even in the top 25 until this week. They certainly can be offensively challenged, even at home where they only average 63.8 points per game. Iowa State is the top offensive team in the conference and this will be just the fourth time they are a dog this season. They've covered two of the previous three times. The 'Clones also have a bit of revenge to exact as they lost at home to KSU, 58-57 (were -8.5) back on January 12th. Kansas State's only loss in the L10 games came out of conference, so they've beaten every Big 12 team. They won't beat Iowa State twice. Play on IOWA STATE

AAA

This is a 7* play on BOSTON

No team in the NHL has been outscored by a wider margin this season than Anaheim. The Ducks YTD goal differential of -54 is easily the worst in the league. That certainly doesn't bode well for them moving forward and I think they're in a lot of trouble tonight, specifically. While they did win Wednesday, all that did was end a seven-game losing streak and it was a 1-0 victory over Vancouver, making it six times in the last eight games they scored 1 or 0 goals. Tonight, Boston invades and the Bruins have won three straight. The Bruins scored six times in their last game, which is more than the Ducks have scored in their last five games combined. Since the All Star Break, Boston is unbeaten in regulation. Meanwhile, Anaheim has lost 19 of 22. As the line suggests, this one seems like a no-brainer! Play on BOSTON

AAA

This is an 8* play on Brown

Over its last four games, Cornell has pulled off three upsets. Last week was certainly good for the Big Red as they won at Dartmouth (83-80) and Harvard (67-61). They were underdogs of 3.5 and 9.5 points respectively in those two contests. They are one of three teams tied for second in the Ivy League with a 4-2 conference record. (Yale is 5-1). A couple games back is Brown (2-4), who managed to beat Princeton last Saturday after losing to Penn the previous night. Both games were at home. Maybe you're somewhat surprised to see me on Brown here, given that they are the road team and lost both matchups against Cornell last year. But I view the Bears as the better team as the last week has clouded the oddsmakers' judgement on Cornell, who is 0-3 ATS this season as a home favorite of three points or less or pick. Also, it should be mentioned that they trailed Harvard by 13 at halftime in the last game. Cornell isn't a particularly strong offensive team (only average 67.4 PPG at home) and they also turn the ball over too much. Brown is the better team defensively and should win going away here. Play on BROWN

AAA

This is a 10* Play on Georgia State

Georgia State is one of several teams vying for Sun Belt Conference supremacy. They enter Friday tied for second place (with UT Arlington), a game behind Texas State. UT Arlington lost last night, which was a break for the Panthers. So too is drawing South Alabama in this spot as the underdog Jaguars are on a two-game losing streak and have just one win away from home this entire season. USA is pretty weak defensively (78.8 PPG allowed on the road) and that's something Georgia State should be able to exploit seeing as they average 81.8 PPG at home. This is not the 1st meeting of the season between the two sides. Georgia State won the first, almost exactly one month ago, 69-66. They did not cover (as they were 4-point favorites), but there's value for the rematch given the line should be higher based on the fact the Panthers were four-point favorites on the road. They shot only 39.0% and still won on the road. They'll shoot much better tonight and win big. Play on GEORGIA STATE

AAA

This is an 8* play on ST LOUIS

St. Louis is a hot team right now. They've won seven straight. This has gotten them up to fourth place in the Central Division, which would be good enough for a Wild Card. Tuesday saw them score eight goals in a win over New Jersey. The Blues have done plenty of scoring lately. It's 13 goals in the last two games and they've scored at least three in all but one game in the win streak. The lone exception was a 1-0 win over league-leading Tampa Bay. Tonight I look for the winning ways to continue in Arizona. While the Coyotes have won two in a row, they'd lost five in a before that. This is a revenge game for the Blues as they lost 6-1 in their last visit here. They're obviously playing better now. None of the Coyotes goalies are playing well right now, which means trouble facing this red hot Blues team.  Play on ST. LOUIS

AAA

This is a 10* play on ARIZONA 

Utah really burned me on Saturday. They were down 22 at UCLA, yet came all the way back and won at the buzzer, 93-92. It was their second upset win of the week as they'd won at USC last Wednesday. That's a huge difference from the previous week when they lost twice at home, both time as favorites. Tonight, they are back in Salt Lake facing an Arizona team that has lost five in a row and reeling (scandal!). But the Wildcats have already beaten the Utes once this year. They've won 16 of the last 18 meetings overall. Something to consider is Utah shot 56.6% in that first meeting and still didn't win. They couldn't win despite that shooting and are were lucky to win Saturday. I don't think Utah is the better team here, so I'll take the points. Play on UTAH

AAA

This is a 10* play on ATLANTA

The Knicks are setting a new benchmark for futility. They lost again last night, 126-111 to Philadelphia. That makes it 18 in a row. Since November 25th, they have lost 33 of 36 games. Two of their three wins were games that went to overtime (both two point wins) and the other was against the Lakers without LeBron. Playing in the second night of a back to back, right before going on break, I don't see the Knicks turning things around here. Yes, they've beaten Atlanta twice this year. But that'll have the Hawks extra motivated tonight. The Hawks picked up a nice win Tuesday against the Lakers (who had LeBron). This should not be a hard game for them. It's a rare spot where they're favored tonight, but it's certainly an ideal opponent. The Knicks will put up no resistance as they are 1-9 SU on no rest this year, losing by an average of 11 PPG. Play on ATLANTA

AAA

This is an 8* play on DETROIT

It's a battle between the bottom two teams in the Atlantic Division Thursday night in the Motor City. Not only do the Red Wings have the advantage here of getting the game on home ice, they are the better team anyway. Ottawa has a pretty clear case to be called the worst team in the league. They have the fewest points (47). On the road, things can be quite dire for the Senators. They give up 4.3 goals per game. Overall, no team has given more goals this year - or shots. Detroit has its issues, but is off a nice win, 3-2 at Nashville. Given that result, beating Ottawa at home should not be that difficult. They just beat the Senators 2-0 on the road two weeks ago. They won that game despite a 35-21 deficit in shots. That shouldn't happen again here, given how many shots (and goals) Ottawa usually gives up. Play on DETROIT

AAA

This is an 8* UNDER play on Islanders-Blue Jackets

The Islanders have undergone a pretty radical transformation this season. Last year, they set a rather infamous record by giving up the most goals ever over the course of an 82-game season. This year, they are giving up fewest goals per game average in the league (2.82). That's stunning. Obviously, the transformation is what's largely responsible for them now leading the Metropolitan Division. They did give up three in a loss to Buffalo Tuesday night. Tonight, they'll have their work cut out for them against a Columbus team that has won four straight while scoring 17 goals in the process. Don't be surprised if the Blue Jackets get held in check. They are 5-1 Under when on a win streak of three games or longer. This includes the 3-0 shutout of Washington Tuesday. Given they are off a shutout, don't be surprised if they keep the Isles in check as well. The Islanders are 13-5 Under their last 18 games. Play UNDER Islanders-Blue Jackets

AAA

This is a 10* play on NC STATE

NC State recovered from an absolutely dreadful three-game stretch to beat Pitt over the weekend, 79-76, on the road. They were two-point favorites, so they got the cash too. Those three previous games read like a horror movie though. They lost by one to Virginia, scored only 24 points against Va Tech, then gave up 113 points to North Carolina. Still though, the Wolfpack are a team to be taken seriously in the ACC and I feel they'll come through tonight in Raleigh against Syracuse. The Orange find themselves closer to the top of the conference with only Duke, Virginia and UNC ahead of them. They beat Duke (in Durham), yet the market still really doesn't respect them that much and I'm not sure I do either. They are 8-3 ATS in conference play, including 4-1 on the road. But ... save for Duke, those road wins came against the bottom tier of the league. The Orange recently lost by 18 to Florida State ... at home. They are offensively challenged and thus I don't see them keeping pace with a NC State team that averages over 82 PPG.  Play on NC STATE.

AAA

This is an 8* play OVER Nets-Cavs

The Nets have dropped both games since leading scorer Caris LeVert returned to the lineup. Still, they have nothing to be ashamed about as far as their most recent performance goes. On the road, they took Toronto down to the wire, ultimately losing 127-125. Now, the fact Brooklyn has lost five of six is a bit concerning. But fortunately for them, they've got an easy one on tap tonight in Cleveland. The Cavaliers might be off a rare win, but they're still only 12-45 SU on the year. The only team with a worse record is the one they just beat, the Knicks. I expect this to be a high scoring affair given Cleveland is one of the worst defensive teams in the entire league. Brooklyn hasn't exactly been playing outstanding defense either, giving up an average of 119.4 points its last five games. They've allowed 125 or more points in three straight with all those games ending in regulation. The Over is 8-3 in the Nets last 11 road games while it's also 11-5-1 the Cavs last 17 home games. Play OVER Nets-Cavs

AAA

This is a 10* play on INDIANA

Indiana continues to surprise despite being without Victor Oladipo. Monday saw them win for a sixth straight time, 99-99 over Charlotte. They got off to a fast start in that one and were able to hold on after jumping out to 16-point halftime lead. They're 5-1 ATS during the six-game win streak and getting points tonight against Milwaukee. The Bucks, who continue to lead the Eastern Conference, have been equally as hot - if not hotter. They've won and covered seven of their last eight, including an easy one in Chicago Monday night. But this has all the makings of an "upset" with the Pacers already being 4-1 SU/ATS in the home dog role this season. It's pretty clear to me that this team isn't being given the proper credit right now due to the Oladipo injury. But the rest of the team has more than picked up the slack. This is a strong defensive group and the last time they hosted Milwaukee, the result was a 113-97 win with only 12 points from Oladipo. Indiana is 22-7 SU at home and a great value here getting points. Play on INDIANA

AAA

This is an 8* play on TEXAS

Kansas State, not Kansas, is currently leading the Big 12. The Wildcats are 8-2 in conference play and have won three straight. The fact that they are in first place is pretty surprising when you consider they weren't even ranked going into the weekend and the Big 12 has multiple ranked teams. I view tonight as an opportunity to fade a team that has clearly moved from "underrated" to "overrated" in a pretty short period of time. The Wildcats' road record is only 4-4 and that includes four straight wins. They are in Austin tonight to take on a Texas team coming off a huge road win at West Virginia on Saturday where they prevailed by 22 points. The Longhorns have covered four straight and also have the advantage of having won in Manhattan by 20 earlier in the year. The revenge angle can sometimes be overrated. For example, WVU was playing with revenge against Texas on Saturday and that ended up meaning nothing. Revenge is again overrated here as Texas is the better team despite being unranked. The 'Horns 6-5 conference record is a little misleading when you consider those five losses have come by a total of 20 points. They have two 20+ points and also beat Kansas by double digits. Play on TEXAS

AAA

This is an 8* Play on Philadelphia 

Kyrie Irving won't play tonight for Boston and that means big trouble for the Celtics going up against a 76ers team that has really begun to hit its stride. I took Philly Sunday, laying a similar number to the Lakers. They won 143-120, easily covering the number. I expect the same here. With Tobias Harris on board, the Sixers have as strong a starting five as any team in the league outside of Golden State. They are also 23-6 straight up here at home where they are winning by an average of almost 10 PPG. Boston has lost two straight, both as favorites. After losing at the buzzer to the Lakers last Thursday, they blew a huge lead against the Clippers Saturday and lost by double digits as double digit favorites. The Celtics are only a .500 team on the road (13-13 SU) and they are 3-6 (both SU and ATS) as an underdog this season. Philadelphia is 71-43 ATS its L114 home games and is in top form right now. Don't expect them to take the Celtics lightly as they're 0-2 against them this season, including an OT loss on Christmas Day. This is their revenge. Play on PHILADELPHIA

AAA

This is a 10* play on OVER Spurs-Grizzlies

The Spurs badly need a win tonight. They've started their annual "Rodeo Road Trip" with four consecutive losses, bringing them to 0-7 ATS their last seven games overall. Tonight they are just a short road favorite in Memphis. But before laying that short number, be aware that San Antonio has given up at least 125 points in every game on this trip. That precludes me from taking them here, but Over seems like a logical call given that's how every other game on the trip has gone so far. Memphis is the league's lowest scoring team, but because of that we are getting a low number for tonight. We should see the Grizzlies score more tonight than they have in a long time. On the flip side of that, San Antonio is going to score more than the average Memphis opponent. The Spurs have become one of the top shooting teams in the league this season and are the third most efficient offense. Play OVER San Antonio-Memphis

AAA

This is a 10* play on OVER Calgary-Tampa Bay

The Flames and Lightning are the two highest scoring teams in the league. So you can't be surprised to see a high total for their game Tuesday. However, the normal parameters for setting an O/U line in NHL really hurt the oddsmakers in this one as I simply don't think a "normal" O/U line fits this particular matchup. When they met the first time this season, the Flames and Lightning combined for nine goals (Tampa Bay won in a shootout). Calling for a repeat of that would not be out of the ordinary as Calgary averages 3.7 goals per game while TB is at 3.9. At home, the Lightning's scoring average jumps to 4.1 goals per game. They have scored five goals in victories over both Pittsburgh and Florida the last two games. The Flames have given up 16 goals in four games since the All Star Break. The Over is 4-0 in February for Calgary and 13-2 their last 15 games. Bottom line is I expect a lot of scoring from the two most prolific teams in the league. Play OVER Calgary-Tampa Bay

AAA

This is a 10* play OVER Portland State/Sacramento State

We head to Big Sky country for our top total this week as Sacramento State plays host to Portland State. Neither team is going anywhere this year. Both are near the bottom of the standings, but something else they have in common is a recent string of Unders. Portland State has gone Under five straight times while Sac State is 4-1 Under in its last five games. These rivals played three times last season and the Under was a perfect 3 for 3. Not this time, however. Because of all the Unders, this number comes in low, significantly lower than most of the recent O/U lines for both teams. It'll likely end up being the lowest total for any Portland State game this year and Sac State has only seen a few lower. Portland State is averaging 77 PPG and Sac State averages 78.6 at home. Neither team is great defensively either. Portland State shot just 35% in their last game, but should do much better than that here. The Vikings have let three straight opponents shoot better than 50% as well. Play OVER Portland State-Sacramento State

AAA

This is an 8* Play on PORTLAND

The last time Portland came to Oklahoma City, the number was only +4. While the Thunder did win that day, 123-114, one can only presume the real reason for the spike in the line is that the Blazers had to play Sunday and the Thunder did not. It was the closest of losses for Portland yesterday as they went down 102-101 after getting outscored 24-9 in the fourth quarter by Dallas. That should have them pretty eager to suit up this evening. OKC has won 10 of 11, but this looks to be too high of a spread in game between two of the top four teams in the Western Conference. Even with yesterday's loss, Portland has still won 7 of 10. All things considered, these teams are pretty even. OKC was a slight dog when it won at Houston Saturday. That's a Rockets team just below the Blazers in the Western Conference standings. Portland is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS loss. Play on PORTLAND

AAA

This is a 8* play on DETROIT

It won't take many wins (38?) to make the playoffs in the Eastern Conference this year. But regardless of how many it does take, there's no denying that both the Pistons and Wizards are coming off "good weeks" as far as keeping their postseason hopes relevant goes. Washington is coming off two straight wins while Detroit has won three in row. Now the Wizards happened to beat Chicago and Cleveland, two of the very worst teams in the league. The Pistons are coming off a home and home sweep of the Knicks, who have the worst record in the league. So there's really no need to alter our reads on the respective teams. Washington is still a really bad road team with an ATS record of 8-20 away from home (8-21 SU). So there's not much argument to be made for liking them getting such a short number. The Pistons are more rested coming into tonight and recent home wins over Dallas and Denver indicate that this should not be a hard number to cover. Washington is 5-21 ATS the L26 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Detroit has a 16-13 SU record at home. Play on DETROIT

AAA

This is a 10* play on CLEVELAND

It's the teams with the two worst records in the league meeting Monday night in Cleveland. The Cavaliers (11-45) are a half game up on the miserable Knicks, who have lost 16 in a row. That streak matches the worst in franchise history. They've also lost 24 of 25 and 29 out of the last 31. While this may seem to be the Knicks best chance at winning in a long time, the same holds true for the Cavs, who come in as the favorite for only the fifth time all season. The Knicks already lost once here in Cleveland, two months ago, by a score of 113-106. Kevin Love could play tonight for the Cavs, who are likely to be the more motivated team by virtue of playing at home. This very likely will be an ugly game, but predicting the Knicks to win on the road seems a bit foolish. Therefore, I will "hold my nose" and take Cleveland, who has actually won three times since the Knicks last won a game. Play on CLEVELAND

AAA

This is a 10* play on OREGON

Oregon's season was dealt the worst possible blow when Bol Bol was lost for the year, but they've continued to manage without him. They won Wednesday, 73-62 over Cal. While they did not cover the spread in that game (were -16), it was still a pretty impressive that the won so handily in spite of turning the ball over 15 times and attempting just five free throws. With a more manageable line tonight, look for the Ducks to cover this time. They host a Stanford team that's in a pretty rough scheduling spot. The Cardinal are playing a third straight road game here and second in four days. They have won the first two, against Cal and Oregon State. But this is clearly the toughest of three. Stanford was a 7.5-point dog when it beat Oregon State Thursday, by a score of 83-60. Clearly, that was the best possible performance from the Cardinal and thus unlikely to be repeated. PG Davis also left that game with a head injury and did not return. So his status is up in the air. Stanford is just 2-9 ATS after giving up less than 60 points in their last game. Play on OREGON

AAA

This is a 10* play on PHILADELPHIA

About two weeks ago the Sixers beat the Lakers 121-105. They were 7.5 point favorites on the road. If any of that sounds odd to you, be aware that LeBron James did not play. Obviously, there needs to be some sort of adjustment made by the oddsmakers now that LeBron is back in the Lakers lineup. But a Lakers team that is simply mediocre at best should still be a bigger underdog for this rematch in Philly. The Sixers are also stronger now than they were two weeks ago, thanks to the Tobias Harris trade. In terms of a starting five, the 76ers have one of the best groups in the league. They just beat a very good Denver team by seven here at home on Friday. That same night saw the Lakers win in Boston, but the win came on a buzzer beater and that was after they trailed the Celtics by as many as 18 points. Remember that with James in the lineup, the Lakers lost by 42 to an Indiana team (Wednesday) that no longer has Victor Oladipo. The 76ers are 22-6 SU at home this year and 70-43 ATS their L113 home games. Play on PHILADELPHIA 

AAA

This is a 10* on CAROLINA

Carolina is starting to make a move for the playoffs. With their own three-game win streak and Pittsburgh losing four in a row, the Hurricanes are now just a point back of the second Wild Card in the Eastern Conference. All three wins during the current streak have come on the road and two were shutouts, the most recent coming Friday (3-0) over the Rangers. You could say New Jersey is going in the other direction as they've lost three straight and seven of nine. Truthfully though, the Devils have been headed in the wrong direction all season. They're the last place team in the Metro and with just 48 points any realistic hope of making the playoffs is out the window. Making matters tougher today is that NJ played yesterday. They lost 4-2 to the Wild, their 5th straight loss at home. This is Carolina's third game in four days, but they've won seven straight in that situation. New Jersey is just 1-7 the last eight times it has played the second game of a back to back. Play on CAROLINA

AAA 

This is an 8* play on VEGAS 

Vegas has established one of the strongest home ice advantages in the league and should win this battle of teams coming off back to back wins Saturday night. The Golden Knights' last two wins both came on the road, one of them as a +140 money line dog at Tampa Bay. The same is true for Columbus, but the difference is they are still on the road and its a third road game in five nights to boot. Maybe the biggest reason Vegas is so good at home is the simply don't give up many goals. They are #1 in the league, giving up just 2.16 goals per game on home ice. They have actually lost their last two games at T-Mobile Arena, which is surprising, but that streak should end tonight considering in two years this team has gone 45-16-5 here in the regular season. Play on VEGAS

AAA

This is an 8* play on the OVER for Clippers-Celtics

The Clippers team that takes the court Saturday night will look a lot different than the one we've seen for most of this season. Tobias Harris and Avery Bradley were both dealt at the trade deadline. An influx of new players are set to debut here in Boston. Depth has never been an issue for LA. In fact, it's why they're in playoff position. Though Harris was their leading scorer, I don't really expect the Clippers scoring to go down at all moving forward. Their games are usually high scoring as they both score and allow 113 PPG. Boston is off a high scoring game as they lost 129-128 to the Lakers Thursday night. That result did the Clippers no favors as it kept the Lakers close in the race for the 8th spot out West. Boston averages 115 PPG at home and the Over is 14-5 their last 19 times facing an opponent with a winning record. Oddsmakers expect a high scoring affair here and so do I. The Over is 9-5 in Celtics games this year if the total is 220 points or higher (7-3 at home). Play OVER Clippers-Celtics

AAA

This is a 10* play on UTAH

Utah is hot, San Antonio is not. It's as simple as that Saturday night for this Western Conference clash. The Jazz have won 13 of their last 18 games, mirroring last year's second half surge. They are also 9-2 the L11 home games. The Spurs have not gotten off to a good start on their annual "Rodeo Road Trip" as they're now 0-3 after tasting defeat in Portland Thursday night. I didn't like them in that spot (played against them) and with this being a third road game in four nights and fourth in six nights, it's just as difficult to see them winning - or even covering - here. Speaking of covering, that's something San Antonio has not done for six straight games. There were two meetings in December between these teams and the home team won handily both times. The Spurs have been a pretty bad road team as their record away from home is now 10-18 straight up. Of the two, Utah is the much better defensive team. All signs point to an easy Jazz victory tonight. Play on UTAH.

AAA

This is a 10* release on UCLA

Very different results for these teams from Wednesday as Utah went to USC and won while UCLA lost at home to Colorado. Those results may have been different, but the home/road designations will be the same Saturday when they meet. The Utes have surprisingly won four of five on the conference road, but I wouldn't look for that to continue as they're only 1-4 SU and ATS all-time in Westwood. UCLA is 10-5 team at home and off back to back losses. Not only did they fall here to Colorado on Wednesday, they lost at Washington last Saturday. That puts the Bruins somewhat into desperation mode tonight and I don't have much hesitation laying the number considering they average more than 80 PPG at Pauley Pavilion. Despite the road prowess, Utah has only won 3 of 10 games where they were the underdog.  They are allowing 76.8 PPG on the road. Play on UCLA

AAA

This is a 10* play on TEXAS STATE

Texas State has been a real surprise as the Bobcats are one of three teams currently tied atop the Sun Belt with a 7-3 SU record. Their overall record is 18-5 SU, which is easily the best of any team in the conference. In fact, every team but one (Georgia State) has at least 10 losses. Tonight the Bobcats look to at least preserve their first place standing in a home game vs. Coastal Carolina, who is just one game back in the standings. The Chanticleers had won and covered their last five games before losing to UT Arlington by 20 on Thursday, a game that was expected to be close (line was +1.5). Texas State had actually lost two in a row (one to TX Arlington) before beating Appalachian State Thursday. With three straight ATS losses, the Bobcats appear to be undervalued in this spot. They already won at Coastal Carolina earlier in the year, doing so 65-61 as 2.5-point favorites. Here in San Marcos, Texas State owns a strong 10-2 record while outscoring the opposition by 16.5 PPG. Play on TEXAS STATE

AAA

This is an 8* play on AUBURN

The SEC has only three ranked teams, but that belies the strength of this league. Auburn is a team that isn't even ranked, but should be considered a real darkhorse come NCAA Tournament time. You'll notice that despite their unranked designation, the Tigers are just a short road underdog here vs. LSU, who is #21 in the country. Last Saturday, I played against LSU and they lost (as 10-point favorites) here in Baton Rouge to a struggling Arkansas team. They did bounce back from that loss by beating Mississippi State, but that required overcoming a double digit deficit in the second half, then overtime. It was the third OT win in SEC play alone this year for LSU. Auburn comes into this game on a three-game roll. All three wins have been by double digits. They are one of the top offensive teams in the country and I believe poised to close the regular season strong. Play on AUBURN

AAA

This is an 8* play on MIAMI

Second time in a row we'll be playing against Sacramento. We chose to lay the points with Houston on Wednesday and they really handed it to the Kings in a 127-101 game. That snapped Sacramento's three-game win streak. Maybe the most surprising thing about the Kings is how they've made the most of the times that they've been favored. They've gone 12-1 straight up and 11-2 against the spread in those games and come in as chalk tonight vs. Miami. But give me the Heat and the points after they just upset the Blazers in Portland Tuesday night. Miami is 8-2 ATS after winning a game outright as a dog. They have a 15-8 ATS record as an underdog and have covered 16 of their 25 road games so far. I do not see the Kings staying above .500 for too long. They're still weak defensively. Miami has revenge for an early season loss at home. Play on MIAMI

AAA

This is a 10* play on OVER Knicks-Pistons

The Knicks have been excruciatingly bad for some time, last winning a game on January 4th. It's been 14 losses in a row since then and perhaps most embarrassing of all is the fact they haven't broken 100 points in seven straight. Friday night, they'll play the Pistons again. These teams just met Tuesday and Detroit won at the Garden, 105-92. That the game stayed Under was a moderate surprise when you consider it was certainly a high scoring first half.  It was 63-54 at the break, but things really slowed down in the third quarter and never picked back up. You have to think New York is going to score at least 100 in a game pretty soon. Why not tonight? The Pistons allowed more than 107 points per game on the year. New York allows 115.5 PPG on the road. The Over is 8-2 when the Knicks are playing with exactly two days rest. Detroit just traded one of its better defenders in Stanley Johnson. Play OVER New York-Detroit

AAA

This is an 8* play on YALE

Two of the Ivy League's heavyweights meet here with Yale hosting Princeton. Maybe you did a double take when you saw the only team with a perfect Ivy League record (Princeton) getting so many points. But Yale is the right call here as they've lost only one time in their L10 games and their record at home remains perfect (6-0). After losing at rival Harvard last Friday, they blew out Dartmouth (on the road) Saturday. They have covered 8 of the 11 times they have been favored this year. Part of the reason it is easy to like the Bulldogs at home (besides the perfect record) is they average 87 PPG. Princeton has won seven straight but will be playing its third in a row on the road. That puts them at a significant disadvantage as the home team is on an 8-3-1 ATS run in this rivalry (Princeton 1-5-1 ATS L7 times visiting Yale). Play on YALE

AAA

This is a 10* play on BROWN

You have to hand it to Pennsylvania. This season could have easily gone off the rails when last  year's leading scorer Ryan Betley (an all-Ivy League player) was lost for the season (to an ACL injury). But the Quakers have circled the wagons, even beating Villanova, and have a 13-7 record coming into tonight. But their Ivy League brethren aren't taking it easy on them, that's for sure. Penn is just 1-3 in conference games. Here they're up against a team with an identical overall and conference record, that being Brown. The host Bears got blown out by Harvard in their last game. But they are 8-1 SU at home and that's a very big deal in a game the oddsmakers have listed as basically a pick em. Brown is averaging 82.6 points per game here at home. Penn is playing for a third straight time on the road. Brown has triple revenge. We're seeing Penn finally slow down (probably due to the loss of Betley) and that continues here. Play on BROWN

AAA

This is a 10* play on PORTLAND

San Antonio essentially waved the proverbial "white flag" last night as it sat both DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge against Golden State. Thus, the final result was rather predictable and sure enough they lost 141-102. Not that they had much of a chance, but giving up 49 pts in the third quarter certainly didn't help. The Spurs are now 0-2 to start the annual "Rodeo Road Trip" as they also lost in Sacramento Monday. Though DeRozan and Aldridge will presumably both play tonight, it's not like Portland is an easy place to play. And the Blazers are looking to bounce back from an embarrassing loss they suffered on Tuesday to Miami, also a National TV game. I don't see Portland losing two in a row at home, so lay the points. Play on PORTLAND

AAA

This is a 10* play on OVER Sharks-Flames

We've uncovered what looks to be yet another high-scoring affair on the NHL slate with San Jose traveling to Calgary. Going into the All-Star Break, the Sharks were having some serious issues stopping their opponents from scoring. They gave up six goals in four straight games! That issues seems to have been alleviated some as they've gone 2-0 since the Break, beating Arizona and Winnipeg by identical 3-2 scores. But tonight they're at Calgary and the Flames are known for scoring a ton at their rink. In fact, they average the highest number of goals per game of any team in the league at home. Tampa Bay was thought to be on a historic pace for goal scoring (and they were), but Calgary has passed them when it comes to home games, averaging 4.31 per game! So look for another high scoring game between two teams who combined for 13 goals the last time they played (New Year's Eve). Play OVER San Jose-Calgary 

AAA

This is a 10* play on Western Kentucky

Western Kentucky definitely deserves to be favored by more than they are Thursday night at Rice. The Hilltoppers are certainly playing well of late. They've won five out of their last six games and Saturday's 76-59 beatdown of UTEP was the most definitive of the bunch. A strong finish and getting to the free throw line were both key in that win. But the Hilltoppers have been winning in a variety of ways lately, which is more than we can say for Rice. The Owls have lost five of seven and while all five losses have been by four points or less, this isn't a team worth your investment. They are bad at the defensive end (allow 78.3 PPG). Being that they are usually the underdog, Rice does sport a good ATS record. But the line is simply way too short tonight against a vastly superior opponent. WKU is 7-3 ATS in conference play in its own right. Play on WESTERN KENTUCKY

AAA

This is an 8* play on SMU

This game is a must have for SMU, which has dropped two straight. But those two losses were both on the road and to good teams, Wichita State and Cincinnati. Tonight, they are back home and facing a South Florida team that is a surprising 15-6 straight up. The Bulls have won three in a row and have done even more damage this year at the betting window where they are 16-5 ATS overall, including 8-1 in conference play. They are also 6-1 ATS as dogs. But they have not won four straight conference games since joining the American. They have also not had much luck here at Moody Coliseum where they are just 1-5 SU all-time. SMU is almost always a strong home team. While they have lost four home games this year, they are still outscoring visiting teams by 11.7 points per game. Play on SMU

AAA

This is a 10* Play on Houston

Houston is at the end of a four-game road trip here. But I expect them to play well against the overachieving Kings. In the second game of a back to back on Monday, they won by eight at Phoenix. That followed a very impressive performance at Utah where they won by 27. The Kings have won three in a row, all at home, and just upset the Spurs Monday. Who would have thought they'd be three games over .500 after 53 games? Not I. Things are starting to come together for the Rockets with Chris Paul back in the lineup. Earlier this season, they blew Sacramento out by 20 points. The Kings still give up too many points to be taken seriously. Houston covers the small number. Play on HOUSTON

AAA

This is a 10* play on OVER Ottawa-Toronto

Expect plenty of goals in this one. Toronto is fourth in the league in goals. Their Ontario rivals, Ottawa, have given up the most goals in the league. Provided the Senators can find the back of the net once or twice themselves, then this Over should come in with relative ease. The Maple Leafs just blitzed Anaheim for six goals on Monday. That was the lowest scoring team in the league they were facing and they still carried them Over the total. Ottawa is a respectable 13th in goals per game. Now the Sens did get shut out in their previous game, but that was Saturday. The Over is 4-1 this season when they play with three or more days rest. Eight of the last nine times these teams have played, the Over has hit. On the road, Ottawa is giving up 4.3 goals per game. Play OVER Ottawa-Toronto

AAA

This is a 10* play on PROVIDENCE

Providence has some revenge on its mind when it hosts Georgetown Wednesday night. They lost a double overtime game to the Hoyas last month by a score of 96-90. The Friars aren't used to losing in this Big East rivalry. They'd previously beaten Georgetown eight straight times! It's been almost five years since the Hoyas won here in Rhode Island. Both teams are off losses here and in the case of Providence, they've lost two in a row. Both losses (Seton Hall, DePaul) were on the road though. They've had an extra day to prepare for this rematch as Georgetown played Sunday at Villanova. The Hoyas are last in the league defensively, so look for the Friars to break out of their offensive slump. Play on PROVIDENCE

AAA