6* Capitals (PUCK-LINE DESTRUCTION)

We're going to lay the price with confidence here for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance in a contest that we see being decided late, or even in extra time. Carolina is 21-13, but it's just 11-10 on the road. After four straight wins and with a home game vs. the Blues at home tomorrow night, we feel this a letdown/lookahead/trap-game for the visitors. Washington is 18-12, but it's lost five of its last six. We see the home side risking life and limb to try and snap the slide here; lay the price, the play is Washington on the puckline option!

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10* Butler (BIG EAST GOY)

While we do think an outright win is possible, in the end we'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. The UConn Huskies are 12-2, while the Butler Bulldogs are 10-4. What's been the one "achilles heel" for the Huskies this season? Their play on the road where they are 0-2 SU/ATS. And what's been the strength of the Bulldogs?! It's been their play at home, where they are 8-0 SU and 4-3 ATS. Butler is off back-to-back conference road losses as a sizeable dog, so it won't be taking anything for granted here as it look to snap the slide. After this UConn is at Xavier, so we also see the visitors get caught "looking ahead." Look for the hungry and determined home side to, at the very least, keep this one close enough to comfortably cover with the spread; grab the points, the play is indeed on the Bulldogs!

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10* Warriors (ASSASSIN)

Denver has won four of its last five. It beat Golden State 120-114 at home on X-Mas Day, unable to cover the 7.5-point spread. The Warriors are 3-1 ATS in their last four in trying to avenge a SU road loss vs. an opponent. We think the Nuggets will get caught "looking ahead" here to their home game vs. the Magic tomorrow. Golden State snapped a three-game slide with a quality 121-115 victory over Orlando and with a winnable game at home vs. Detroit tomorrow, we're expecting Golden State to step up here and take advantage of the scheduling; grab the points, the play is indeed on Golden State!

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10* UNDER Avs/Stars (CENTRAL DIVISION TOY)

Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but everything finally points to a much tighter and lower-scoring defensive battle in this one in our opinion. Colorado is coming off three straight wins and it's off a 5-4 OT win over the Islanders. The Avs could have their hands full here though with Dallas, who plays with revenge after a 6-3 loss here in mid November to the Avs. Note though that Dallas has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 in trying to avenge a divisional home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Everything points to a much tighter and lower-scoring defensive battle; the play is the "under!" 

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10* UNDER Charleston/Hofstra (CAA TOY)

Charleston is 9-4 and Hofstra is 7-6. Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but from a situational stand point, this one now here on Thursday finally sets up as more of a defensive affair in our opinion. The Cougars enter off five straight victories and they've seen the total go "over" in six straight, but despite their 96-59 win over Montreat College last time out, the Cougars have still seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to five or more straight "overs" in a row. The Pride have lost four of their last five and the last thing they'll want to do is to turn this into a shootout, instead they'll look to control the pace. When you add up all of the above factors, everything points to a much more defensive affair than what this O/U line is suggesting; this number is indeed high, the play is the "under!" 

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10* Leafs puckline (ASSASSIN)

Toronto is off a 3-0 win over LA just last night. Typically we would not play on a team on the second game of a B2B scenario, but we anticipate the Leafs taking advantage of this matchup. The Ducks are just 6-14 at home and just lost here 7-2 to the Oilers. Toronto will end its trip with a game at the Sharks, so this is a stretch of games that it'll be focussed on taking advantage of. Expect that to not only translate into a victory today, but a completely lop-sided one; the play is the Leafs on the puckline option!

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10* OVER Xavier/Villanova (BIG EAST TOY)

Both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring contests of late, but in our opinion everything finally points to more of a wide-open offensive battle between these Big East rivals. Xaiver is 7-6 overall, while Villanova is 9-4. The Musketeers have gone 3-1 in their last four and they've seen the total go "under" in three straight after their most recent 74-54 win over Seton Hall, but note that the Musketeers have in fact seen the total go "over" in eight of their last 11 after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. Villanova is 3-2 SU in its last five, but it's seen the total go "under" in five straight after its most recent 84-48 win at DePaul, but that's significant to note for a couple of reasons, as the Wildcats have seen the total go "over" the number in three of their last four off a SU/ATS road conference road win in which they held their opponent to 49 or fewer points in and also in eight of their last 11 after playing to five or more straight "unders" in a row. We base our picks on many different things, and this particular one is a great situational play that's backed by very strong trends in our opinion; this number is low, the play is the "over!" 

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10* Hawks (UNDERDOG OF MONTH)

This one sets up unbelievably well for Atlanta. OKC is 23-9 and 9-4 on the road, but after five straight SU/ATS wins in a row, including an upset 127-123 home win over Boston just last night, can anyone say "letdown spot?!" Also note that the Thunder are just 3-7 ATS in their last ten after five or more straight SU/ATS victories in a row. Atlanta just snapped a four-game slide with a 130-126 win over Washington to move to 13-19. That was three nights ago though. The Hawks are well rested and the play with revenge after falling 126-117 as one-point favorites in OKC back on November 6th, and note that ATL is 7-3 ATS in its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. A great situational play on Atlanta!

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10* Charlotte (NON-CONF GOW)

Of course we're not calling for the outright victory or anything, but all signs point to a much tighter affair than what this spread is suggesting in our opinion. The Hornets have won three of their last five, but they're off a 111-93 loss at Denver. But we say they fly in "under the radar" here vs. the Kings, who will get caught "looking ahead" to their much more high-profile game the following night here vs. the Magic. After back-to-back SU road wins, all signs point to the Kings having a small mental letdown here at home tonight; no outright, but closer than expected, so grab the points!

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10* Canucks (NON-CONF GOW)

Vancouver is well worth the price of admission in this spot. As primarily "situational" cappers, this one falls right into our wheelhouse. Vancouver had won three of four before a 4-1 home loss to the Flyers last time out. This though is the final home game before a very tough seven-game Eastern road swing. Vancouver is 3-1 in its last four off an upset loss as a home favorite and with such a tough upcoming schedule, we're expecting the home side to risk life and limb here to try and secure the victory. This is the start of the Senators Western swing, but with a game at Seattle up next, we think they'll get caught looking ahead; lay the price with confidence, the play is indeed on Vancouver!

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10* Charlotte (AAC GOM)

Outright win?! We're not predicting that. But we do think that 9-3 SMU is going to get caught "looking past" 6-6 Charlotte to its much more high-profile game vs. Memphis this weekend. SMU is 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in its last five, but that's signficant for us to take note of as the Mustangs are in fact just 2-7 ATS in their last nine after five more ATS victories in a row. Charlotte is 0-3 SU/ATS on the road, but that fact has only made the general betting public quick to back the favored home side here. But now the value has finally swung the other way here. We're not going to try and convince that the 49ers are a better team than the Mustangs, because that's definitely not the case. But as primiarly situational handicappers, this one falls right into our wheelhouse. No outright, but closer than expected; grab the points, the play is Charlotte!

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10* UNDER North Alabama/Texas Tech.

Here's a great "situational" play. We're fully expecting Texas Tech to go up early, and then to take the foot off the gas as it plays its final "tune-up" game before the conference schedule. The Red Raiders are 10-2 overall and 7-0 at home. Texas Tech enters on a five game unbeaten streak, but that is in fact significant to note here, as the Red Raiders have seen the total go "under" the number in three of their last four after five or more straight SU victories in a row. North Alabama is 6-7, including a terrible 1-6 on the road. It's coming off back-to-back losses, failing to top 68 points in either game. We have a hard time seeing the offensively-challenged Lions even reaching 60 in this one though vs. this difficult Red Raiders' defense; this number is high, the play is the "under!" 

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10* OVER Liberty/Oregon (BOWL TOY)

We're expecting very little defense to be played here in the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl in what sets up to be an interesting matchup between two teams that have somethng to prove. Liberty finished 13-0, capped off by a 49-35 win over New Mexico State in the Conference USA Championship Game. Clearly, the Flames will be out to prove to the nation that they should have been part of the College Football championship. Oregon went 11-2 and lost 34-31 to Washington in the final PAC 12 Championship Game. The Ducks averaged 44.2 PPG, while allowing just 17.3, but with the Flames pushing the pace like we anticipate, despite being such big underdogs, everything definitely points to a high-paced, wide-open "shootout," rather than a grind-it-out defensive affair. Liberty averaged 40.8 PPG, while allowing 22.7 and while these are admittedly two very good defensive teams, we're anticipating plenty of offensive fireworks; this number is low, the play is the "over!" 

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10* Wisconsin (BOWL GOY)

Wisconsin finished 7-5, while LSU was 9-3. We're not calling for an outright win or anything, but all signs definitely point to a much more competitive bowl game here than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. The Badgers won 28-14 at Minnesota as 2.5-point favorites in their final regular season game. LSU fell 42-28 at Alabama on November 4th, but then rattled off three straight wins to close out the year, including 42-30 over Texas A&M. LSU averaged 46.4 PPG, which was No. 1 in the country. It also had 14 turnovers on the year, which ranked third. The offense had to be good though, as the defense was pretty terrible allowing 27.8 PPG. With many players transfering into the portal, LSU will have plenty of holes to fill on both sides of the ball. The Badgers only averaged 22.8 PPG, but they didn't usually have to be fantastic offensively, with the defense conceding just 18.9 PPG. Look for the longer lay off to throw a further "monkey wrench" into LSU's normally efficient offense; grab the points, the play is indeed on the Badgers!

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10* Vikings (ASSASSIN)

We think that home field advantage at this time of year will be the difference-maker for the Vikes today. Both teams are 7-8. Minnesota comes in as the "hungrier" team though after back-to-back competitive losses at the Bengals and to the Lions last week, who clinched the division on their home field. Clearly, they won't be happy about that at all. They beat Green Bay on the road 24-10 at the start of the year, and we're predicting a similar final score here as well. The Packers broke a two-game slide to save their season with a come from behind 33-30 win at lowly Carolina last weekend, but everything points to a predictable letdown here now in Minnesota. Both teams are dealing with plenty of injuries, but we like the Vikes to finally settle down here at home and get handle on their recent turnover issue; lay the short points, the play is Minnesota!

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10* UNDER Celtics/Spurs (BOB)

Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but we're finally expecting a lower-scoring defensive battle here on New Year's night. Boston has won five straight, and it's seen the total go "over" in six straight, but note that the C's have in fact seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 12 still after playing to five or more straight "overs" in a row. The Spurs' issues are well documented this season. And with a game at Memphis on January 2nd, we believe the home side will get caught looking ahead here as well. Look for Boston to control the pace of this one here and for this total to ultimatley stay "under" the number once it's all said and done!

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10* OVER Washington/Utah (PAC TOY)

Washington enters 8-4 overall and 0-1 in Pac 12 action, while Utah is 10-2 and 1-0. Washington lost its conference opener by a score of 73-69, and clearly it won't be happy about that sub-par offensive performance. Note though that the Huskies do have a notable 78-73 win over Gonzaga this year already. Utah destroyed Washington State by 22 points in its conference opener and we're expecting it to push the pace here as well in this potentially difficult matchup. The bottom line here though is that each team really likes to push the ball, as each ranks in the Top 100 in adjusted tempo. Each also has multiple double-digit scoring forwards. For all the reasons listed above, look for this total to fly "over" the number sooner, rather than later!

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10* Chiefs (AFC GOW)

Clearly, this is a big game for both teams, but a lot more so for Kansas City, which has lost five of its last eight, including a 20-14 setback here last weekend to the Raiders as 11-point favorites. Note though that the Chiefs are a near-perfect 7-1 ATS in their last eight after a SU/ATS home loss as a double-digit favorite. They barely squeaked by the Bengals 23-20 in last year's Playoffs, covering the 2-point spread, but now they face a Cincinnati team without Joe Burrow and off a poor 34-11 loss at Pittsburgh as a three-point favorite. Look for Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid to come out with a game-plan here to get back on track vs. this toothless Bengals' team; lay the points with confidence, the play is Kansas City!

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8* Colts (BLOOD-BATH)

We think that home field advantage will be the difference-maker in this one. Las Vegas is 7-8, including only 2-5 on the road, while the Colts are 8-7, including 3-4 at home. Off back-to-back wins, a predictable letdown is now expected in our opinion for Las Vegas, especially after beating the Chiefs 20-14 last weekend on the road. The Colts have been trading wins/losses over their last four games, and off the 29-10 loss at the Falcons, all signs point to this pattern continuing. With the majority of the public money on the visiting side as well, we'll go full contrarian and go the other way; lay the points, the play is Indianapolis!

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10* CSU Fullerton (BIG WEST GOY)

We think that the Warriors get caught a little flat-footed here and that the Titans will, at the very least, comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the ample amount of points that they've been afforded. Fullerton is just 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS in its last three after an 81-71 loss to LBSU last time out, but note that the Titans are 7-3 ATS in their last ten after three or more ATS losses in a row. They won this game 62-60 last year at home. Hawaii enters off two straight losses, falling to Georgia Tech and TCU and it's just 1-3 ATS in its last four overall. The Warriors are getting WAY too much respect here in our opinion. No outright, but MUCH closer than expected; grab the points, the play is indeed on the Titans!

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10* Kings (PACIFIC DIV. GOY)

The bottom line here is that we feel we're getting GREAT line value on the home side here. This play is based almost entirely upon that theory. However, note that this is also a great situational play. Edmonton has won three straight, but note that the Oilers are just 3-7 in their last ten after three or more straight victories in a row. With a late New Year's Eve game at the Ducks tomorrow night, we say the visitors get caught "looking ahead." This is the first matchup of the year between these Pacific Division rivals and we expect the Kings to defend home ice. Edmonton is 7-9-0-0 on the road, while LA is 7-6-1-2 at home. The Kings are off the 3-2 loss at Vegas, but everything points to them bouncing back here and taking advantage of the situation; for all the reasons listed above, the play is indeed on LA!

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10* Lions (BLOOD-BATH)

Despite just clinching the NFC North, we're not expecting the Lions to take anything for granted here and taking into account the current form of the Cowboys, we feel that the visitors do in fact have a legitimate shot at winning this one outright. The Cowboys are 7-0 at home, but it's been against really weak competition, or teams dealing with major issues at the time. It's a "Fugazi" that home record. The time to play your best football of the year is right now and of course the Cowboys are regressing right on cue after back-to-back losses to Buffalo and Miami. The Lions are off back-to-back wins, including a 30-24 victory at Minnesota last weekend and they have even bigger plans for the rest of the regular season; as stated off the top, we feel an outright victory is a very real possibility, but in the end we'll recommend to grab as many points as you can, the play is Detroit!

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10* Toledo/Wyoming UNDER (BOWL TOM)

This is the Arizona Bowl and we're anticipating a very defensive affair, and will therefore be hammering the "under" on this one. Wyoming's offense ranks 24th worst, averaging only 324.8 YPG and 26.1 points. But what the Cowboys lack on the offensive end, they more than make up for it on the defensive end by conceding only 22.9 points. Toledo is averaging 33.6 PPG, while allowing only 20.6. The Rockets are now faced with a similar tough defensive unit here. DeQuan Finn is a talented QB for the Rockets, but both teams are going to have to deal with several opt-outs and transfters before this game takes place. Look for the longer lay off to throw a "monkey wrench" into each team's offensive rythym and expect these talented defenses to be the "main storylines" in tomorrows summaries of this contest; this number is high, the play is on the "under!" 

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10* Ole Miss (BOWL GOM)

This is the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl between Ole Miss and Penn State. Ole Miss finished 10-2, while PSU finished 10-2 as well. In a contest that we see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, we'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. These teams are hoping to take the next step in their respective conferences next season. James Franklin and Penn State won 11 games last year, but we don't expect "lightning to strike twice" this time around. Ole Miss though is looking for its first 11-win season in school history. SEC QB Jaxson Dart is a difference-maker here, as his stats were among the best in the SEC. Penn State is extremely talented defensively, but the Ole Miss offense is extremely efficient. It's a battle of strength vs. strength and while the outright win isn't out of the question, in the end we'll recommend to grab as many points as you can with Ole Miss!

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10* Avalanche (CENTRAL DIV GOY)

Here's a great situational play on Colorado in our opinion, which is well worth the price of admission in this spot. Colorado is 21-11-2-1 this year, including 7-7-2-1 on the road, while St. Louis is 18-15-0-1 overall, including 11-5-0-0 at home. Colorado has responded really well in this spot for bettors though, as it's a near-perfect 7-1 in its last eight in trying to avenge a divisional home loss vs. an opponent (lost 8-2 at home on November 11th.) The Blues have won three straight, but with a road game at Pittsburgh tomorrow night, we also believe that the home side will get caught "looking ahead" here. Lay the price with confidence, the play is Colorado!

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10* Ohio State (BLOCKBUSTER)

The knock against Ohio State here is that it's down to its second string QB, which is true, but we in fact think that helps the Buckeyes here. The Tigers are missing two key defensive players in Ennis Rakestraw and linebacker Ty’Ron Hopper, and when those two players were missing earlier in the year, Missouri allowed 267 yards rushing. Which doesn't bode well facing this Ohio State offense and QB Devin Brown, who was in a battle for the No. 1 spot with Kyle McCord before the season started and before he got injured. Brown was 12 of 22 for 197 yards, two TD's and an INT this year, but he'll know that this is a "try-out" for him to be the No. 1 guy next year, as McCord has already left. The Buckeyes only allow 260 yards per game. Look for the Buckeyes to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable win and cover and lay the points with confidence!

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10* UNDER Kent/Saint Mary's (NON-CONF TOY)

We're anticipating a much more defensive battle between these two teams than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Kent is a big underdog here, but it won't be rolling over. The Golden Flashes are 7-4 overall, including 1-1 in true road games, while the Gaels are 8-6 overall, including 6-3 at home. Kent has seen the total go "over" in five straight now, but that's important for us to take note of as the Golden Flashes have in fact seen the total go "under" in three of their last four after playing to five or more straight "overs" in a row. Saint Mary's five-game win streak came to an end in a 69-64 loss to Missouri State as a 13.5-point favorite, and that's also significant to note as the Gaels have seen the total go "under" in seven of their last ten off a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite. This number is a little high, the play is indeed on the "under!" 

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10* UNDER Raptors/Celtics (ATLANTIC TOY)

Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but we're anticipating a much tighter and ultimately lower-scoring affair here on Friday. The Raptors are only 12-18 overall, including just 4-9 on the road. Boston is 24-6 overall, including 15-0 at home. Toronto snapped a three-game slide with a 132-102 win in the Nation's capital last time out, but the Raptors fell 108-105 at home to Boston back in mid-November, and everything points to a similar final combined score here as well in our opinion. Boston is off four straight wins. It needed OT to get past Detroit 128-122 here last time out as a 17-point favorite, and with that "close call" fresh in their minds, we're anticipating the home side to double down on the defensive end. Finally, note that Toronto has in fact seen the total go "under" the number in five of its last six as well in trying to avenge a SU home loss vs. a divisional opponent; this number is indeed high, the play is the "under!" 

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10* Knights (REVENGE DESTRUCTION)

This is a great situational play. We'll go so far as to call this the very definition of "great line value." Las Vegas comes in desperate to snap a four-game slide after a 5-2 loss at Anaheim last night. It also plays with revenge after a 4-1 loss to the Kings back in early November, and note the the defending champs are a near-perfect 4-1 in their last five in trying to revenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. The Kings have been great and have won two straight, but after last night's satisfying 5-1 home win over the Sharks, all signs point to a predictable letdown here in this difficult road venue in our opinion; for all the reasons listed above, the play is indeed on Las Vegas!

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10* WILDCATS (BOWL WINNER)

Arizona is 9-3 and the Sooners are 10-2. Oklahoma will be without start QB Dillon Gabriel though, as well as their offensive coordinator and a slew of other offensive starters. Because of this fact, and this fact alone, we're going to take the Wildcats here. They have a great QB in Noah Fiftia, who had to step in for an injured Jay de Laura. The Wildcats losses were all close. This is a good, motivated and well-coached team that we're expecting to take advantage of the situation presented to them; lay the short points, the play is indeed on Arizona!

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10* UNDER Jets/Browns (TOW)

This is an important game for both teams. To us, this is a great "situational" play on the "under." New York is 6-9 and hasn't thrown in the towel yet after a 30-28 win over Washington on X-Mas Eve. The 30 points scored is an outlier for sure though, as NY combined for just 14 points over its previous three games. Now on the road in this difficult venue, we can expect a return to form on the offensive end here, which is obviously really terrible. Cleveland is 10-5 and getting unreal play from veteran Joe Flacco, but after three straight SU/ATS victories in a row, soring 87 points in the process, we feel that the "short week" will benefit these defenses a lot more. This number is high, the play is indeed on the "under!" 

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10* Pelicans (ASSASSIN)

We base our picks on many different things. This particular one is based on the "revenge" factor, which we'll admit, is completely overhyped at times. But not at all times, and definitely not in this case in our opinion. Utah is just 5-13 on the road, but after three straight SU/ATS victories in a row, we're expecting a predictable letdown here, as note that the Jazz are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row. They beat the Pels 114-112 at home as a 6.5-point dog on November 27th, but note that New Orleans is 7-3 ATS in its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. After back-to-back SU/ATS losses in a row, we're expecting the home side to come out fired up and completely focussed on the task at hand; lay the points with confidence, the play is New Orleans!

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10* UNDER Oakland/Cleveland State (Horizon League TOM)

These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games coming into this conference contest, but we're finally expecting more of a defensive affair, as the overall situation that each finds itself coming into this one, combined with the numbers/trends all point to this total ultimately staying well "under" the number once it's all said and done in our opinion. Oakland is 6-7 and Cleveland State is 8-5. The Grizzlies are just 3-4 on the road, while the Vikings are 7-0 at home. Oakland has seen the total go "over" in three straight, but note that the Grizzlies have seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. Cleveland State has also seen the total go "over" in three straight, but note that the Vikings have seen the total go "under" in three of their last four after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row; this number is high, the play is indeed on the "under!" 

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10* Texas A&M (BLOCKBUSTER)

Texas A&M finished 7-5, while Oklahoma State was 9-4. Both teams have plenty of transfers and opt outs for this one, and it really does level the playing field here. This one is going to come down to the wire and whichever team has it hands on the ball last is going to come out on top. Texas A&M turns to Jaylen Henderson under center and he averaged 234.7 yards per game over his final three games and had two TD's. The Aggies have a great defense as well that allows just 21.3 PPG. Oklahoma State has seven players opting out. The Cowboys rank dead last in the Big 12 on the defensive end, allowing 441.5 yards per game; grab the points, the play is indeed on the Aggies!

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10* UNDER Knicks/Thunder (ASSASSIN)

These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but we're expecting a much tighter, and ultimately more defensive affair here than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. The Knicks are 17-12 and have won three of their last four. Previous to their 129-122 win over Milwaukee they'd seen the total go "under" in three straight games, and we're expecting another more defensive affair here now as well after that big victory vs. their nemesis. Now travelling across the country for a non-conference battle, before then B2B road games at Orlando and Indiana, we feel the visitors could get caught looking ahead and ultimatley taking the foot off the proverbial gas pedal in this one. The Thunder are 19-9 and they've won four of their last five. They've also seen the total go "over" in three straight, which is important for us to take note of us as the Thunder have in fact seen the total go UNDER in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row; this number is a little high, so the play is indeed on the "under!" 

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10* Leafs (ATLANTIC DIVISION GOY)

We feel that Toronto could/should in fact be a much larger favorite in this spot. The Senators are just 3-8 on the road, while the Leafs are 9-5-2-0 at home. Toronto went into the X-Mas break off a 4-1 win at Columbus and we're anticipating it coming out with fresh legs here at home vs. the Senators, who they beat 4-3 on December 7th in Ottawa. The Senators broke a six-game slide with a 5-4 OT won at home over the Penguins, but everything points to an immediate letdown here after the layoff; as stated off the top, the value swings to the undervalued home favorite, which we believe will lay the hammer down from start to finish. The play is indeed on Toronto!

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10* Portland (ASSASSIN)

Outright win?! We're not calling for that, but we defintely expect this to be competitive until the final moments. The Kings are 17-11, but they're just 6-6 on the road. Off a 110-98 home loss to the Wolves, note that the Kings are in fact just 1-3 ATS in their last four off a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite in which they were held to 99 or fewer points in. Portland comes in under the radar here. It's off B2B losses, falling 126-106 at Golden State, but with a few days off to prepare, we're expecting the Blazers to be competitive here, just as they were in a 121-118 OT loss at Sacramento in early November; grab the points, the play is indeed on the Blazers!

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10* UNLV (ROUT)

UNLV is one of the bigger dogs during the entire Bowl season, but we think this spread is a little TOO large. Kansas finished 8-4, while UNLV was 9-4, finishing in a tie for first place in the MWC. The Jayhawks beat Cincinnati 49-16 back on November 25th. Jason Bean replaced Jaylon Daniels at QB during the season and threw for 1,681 yards and a 12:4 TD:INT. Overall the Jayhawks finished averaging 33.6 PPG, while conceding 25.8. UNLV is lead by QB Jayden Maiava, who finished with 2,794 passing yards and a 14:8 TD:INT. The Rebels averaged 34.3 PPG, while conceding 27. The Rebels are also 6-0 ATS on the road this year and while we're stopping short in calling for an outright upset, everything points to this contest being MUCH more competitive than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe; grab the points the play is UNLV!

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10* Texas State (ROUT)

We think the 7-5 Texas State Bobcat's up-tempo offense will be too much for the 6-6 Rice Owls to keep up with. This is a big game for Texas State, making its first ever bowl appearance, and it won't be taking anything for granted. CJ Kinne has transformed the Bobcats into a good team. QB TJ Finley, wh ohas experience at LSU and Auburn is a difference-maker in this one. The Owls aren't the best at creating take-aways on defense and we have a hard time seeing their QB AJ Padgett keeping pace. Look for Texas State to push the pace behind Finley and for Kinne to continue this great overall season and turnaround for Texas State!

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10* OVER Ravens/49ers (NON-CONF TOW)

Is this a possible Super Bowl preview here in Prime Time on X-Mas day?! Very possibly! Who knows for sure, but each side enters at 11-3. Each has dealt with injury issues this year and some off-field adversity. The Ravens are 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS on the road, while the 49ers are 5-1 SU and 3-3 ATS at home. These teams are very evenly matched for the most part, and we feel this line is very sharp. We're going to steer clear of choosing a side, and instead focus on the total. The 49ers just annihilated the Cardinals 45-29 and there's no reason not to think they can't carry over that offensive momentum here. The Ravens have won four straight, which included a 37-31 OT win over NFC West LA Rams just two weeks ago, and we're expecting a similar wide-open offensive battle here on the West Coast on X-Mas day as well; this number is a little low in our opinion, the play is indeed on the "over!"

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10* Lakers (ASSASSIN)

The Celtics opened up their West-coast swing with a 132-126 OT loss at Golden State, but they've since won B2B away games, handling Sacramento 144-119 and the Clippers here two nights ago 145-108. But with three nights off after this, we feel that the temptation to get caught "looking ahead" will be there for the visiting side now. No such luxury for LA though, which just snapped a four-game slide with a convincing 129-120 win at OKC. Look for the Lakers to carry that momentum over here and while the outright is obviously very possible, the official call will be to grab as many points as you can with LA!

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10* Eagles (NFC EAST GOW)

We base our picks on many different things, but this particular one is based on some very strong ATS trends that support our overall theory that Philadelphia is going to have no mercy on its overmatched opponent today. Philadelphia is 10-4, but it's lost three straight, both SU and ATS. That however is significant for us to take note of here, as the Eagles are a near-perfect 5-1 ATS in their last six after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row. This is the first meeting of the year between the division foes. Philly then has a home game here next week vs. the Cards, followed by the regular season finale at the Giants. Clearly, there's no reason Philly can't now end the season on a three-game win streak, and that's what we're expecting, starting with a convincing blowout here at home; lay the points, the play is Philadelphia!

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10* Patriots (AFC NON-DIV GOM)

We're expecting a much tighter battle than what this spread is suggesting, as we look for New England to try and do everything it can to play "spoiler" here. The Pats are 3-11 and the Broncos are 7-7. The Pats beat the Steelers, then promptly lost 27-17 to a desperate Chiefs team last week. QB Bailey Zapp was 23 of 31 for 180 yards and a TD and we feel he can be effective here today as well. New England still concedes only 21.4 PPG. The Broncos are off a 42-17 loss to the Lions and have struggled with consistency from game-to-game all season long. Russell Wilson is the better QB here for sure in this matchup, but we think that Bill Belichick and his defense will be "hanging around late;" grab the points, the play is indeed on New England!

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10* Hawaii (ATS BLOOD-BATH)

This is going to "come down to the wire," in our opinion, and because of that we're going to recommend to grab as many points as you can. TCU is 9-2 and Hawaii is 8-3. Hawaii looks to rebound here off the 73-68 loss to Georgia Tech as a two-point fav (but note that the Warriors have in fact responded incredibly well in this spot for bettors by going 4-1 ATS in their last five off an upset home loss as a favorite.) TCU is off an 88-75 loss to Nevada, and with Conference schedule looming after the X-Mas break, we say the visitors get caught "looking ahead" here. Grab the points, the play is indeed on Hawaii!

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10* Titans (ASSASSIN)

We're not expecting Tennessee to just roll over here and in a contest that we see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, we're grabbing the points. Seattle is 7-7 and third in the NFC West, while Tennessee is 5-9, and looking to play spoiler and salvage pride after having already been eliminated. The Hawks are 20th in total offense and 28th in total defense. Seattle is really banged up coming into this game as well, including to QB Geno Smith. The Titans average 293.7 YPG, while allowing 339.3. Injuries have also been a concern for the Titans all year. Obviously its "next man up" for both teams. But Tennessee and its coaches are playing for their jobs and everything points to this one "coming down to the wire." As such, we're grabbing the points; the play is on Tennessee!

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10* Missouri State (MID-MAJOR ROUT)

Missouri State won't be rolling over here in its final game before the XMas break. The Bears are 8-4 and they'll look to close out their non-conference schedule strong. Missouri State has won two of its last three and we think it catches Saint Mary's, which is 8-5 overall, but which has won five straight. The Gaels concede just 58.7 PPG. The Bears average 74.6 PPG, while allowing 67.6. We think the Gaels will win this game, but Missouri State's efficient offense will keep it competitive late; grab the points, the play is indeed on the Bears!

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10* Hornets (ASSASSIN)

We base our picks on many different things, this particular one sets up fantastically from a "situational" stand point. We say that Denver FOR SURE gets caught "looking ahead" to its X-Mas home game vs. Golden State. Charlotte has lost six straight SU and three straight ATS, but that's important for us to take note of us as the Hornets are 7-3 ATS in their last ten after three or more ATS losses in a row. We're just expecting Denver to take the foot off the gas in the second half, as it prepares for its Nationally televised affair; grab the points, the play is Charlotte!

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10* Pittsburgh (AFC NORTH GOY)

They say that divisional contests are always the most important and that they almost always mean the most to the home side, and that's definitely the case here in our opinion, and while we clearly wouldn't be shocked by an outright upset, we will in the end recommend to grab as many points as you can with the Steelers. The Bengals are 8-6 and the Steelers are 7-7. The Bengals have won three straight with Jake Browning, but note that Cincinnati is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten in after three or more SU/ATS victories in a row. Pittsburgh turns to Mason Rudolph to snap the three-game slide. With nearly 75% of the public money on the visitors, we're going the other way here and expecting Rudolph to step up and deliver the goods in this spot; grab the points, the play is indeed on the Steelers!

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10* Arkansas State (ATS BLOOD-BATH)

Both teams enter at 6-6, but we feel this is a matchup that favors Arkansas State. The RedWolves return to a bowl game for the first time since 2019. In the end Arkansas State finished 6-5-1 ATS this year. Good news for the RedWolves is that their entire starting offense will be available in this one, including Jaylen Rayn, who had 2,300 passing yards and a 15:6 TD/INT. NIU won its final two games to become eligible, but overall the Huskies finished the year 5-7 ATS. Rocky Lombardi will be under center and he threw for 2,074 yards and had a 10:5 TD/INT. We feel this one will be decided by the men under center ultimately and that's why we're backing Arkansas State; so lay the short points with confidence!

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10* DRAW between Man U/West Ham (EPL GOW)

In what we believe will be a complete "war of attrition," we definitely feel that the value in this matchup lies in the "draw" option. Look at the odds, as the oddsmakers would agree that we have a very evenly matched matchup on our hands in this one. Manchester United just drew 0-0 with Liverpool in its last match, and while we'll see a bit more offense here, we do expect a "stale-mate" in the end. West Ham is off the back off a 5-1 defeat to Liverpool in the quarters of the EFL Cup last Wednesday and will be doubling down on the defensive end after that "brain fart." With each side content to sit back and wait for the other to make the first mistake, we're playing the DRAW in this one!

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8* Fresno State (MID-MAJOR DESTRUCTION)

Fresno State is 6-4 SU, while San Fran is 9-4. It's also 6-0 at home. We think the home side though takes the foot off the gas in the second half, allowing the hungry visiting side more than enough room to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Fresno State is off a 75-72 OT home loss to Portland State as a 3.5-point favorite, which is significant to take note of here as the Bulldogs are in fact 7-3 ATS in their last ten off an upset home loss as a favorite. The Dons have been great and it's difficult to point out to many faults, but we say everything points to a minor mental letdown here before the X-Mas break; grab the points, the play is indeed on Fresno State!

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10* Raptors (ASSASSIN)

We like Toronto to comfortably cover and sneak in through the backdoor down the stretch. Toronto plays with revenge after falling 114-109 here back on November 2nd, and note that the Raptors are 7-2 ATS in their last nine in trying to avenge a SU/ATS divisional loss vs. an opponent. Philly's been playing great, but off a big win over the red hot Wolves, and with their X-Mas Day game at Miami up next, all signs point to this being a classic "trap game" for the home side. No outright, but closer than expected; grab the points, the play is indeed on Toronto!

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10* UNDER Georgia Tech/UCF.

Both teams finished 6-6. Both teams are among the best in the nation on the offensive side of the ball, and each is among the worst on the defensive. All of these team's regular season numbers would clearly point to this being a high-scoring affair, and the general betting public would agree, as this O/U line jumped nearly six points from where it opened originally. Now, though, we feel its much TOO high. We liked the "under" on the original line, but now we definitely think this is too many points for these teams to go over. The longer lay-off will prove detrimental to each team's offense and beneficial for the defensive units in our estimation. A LOT of things have to go right for this total to go "over" the number, and we just don't see it happening; this number is high, the play is the "under!" 

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10* Lakers (ASSASSIN)

I lost with the Lakers last night in Chicago, but I think LA will risk life and limb here to try and snap out of its recent cold spell which has seen it lost three in a row. LA has now also lost five straight ATS, which is important here for this pick for us, as the Lakers have responded well in this position for bettors by going 7-3 ATS in their last ten after five or more straight ATS losses in a row. Minnesota's three-game win streak came to an end last night in Philly and we believe the Wolves will come out flat here now returning home (especially with two road games sandwiched around X-Mas right after this!) Both teams will have to deal with fatigue, but the overall situation and the above listed trends do indeed make LA the correc call in this contest!

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10* Saints (ASSASSIN)

With nearly 80% of the public money on the Rams, we're going full on contrarian here and going the other way. This is an important game for both 7-7 teams. The Saints have won two straight, while LA has won four of its last five. New Orleans is now tied for the lead in the NFC South. The bottom line here is the Saints' defense is legit, allowing just 248 total yards per game over their last two games and 19.1 PPG overall this season. They have 30 INT's and 30 sacks already, which is fifth in each category. The offense hasn't been shabby either, Derek Carr averaging 26 PPG over their last two, and 22.1 overall. The Rams have allowed just 21.2 PPG over thier last five games. Overall LA averages 23.4 PPG this season. Both teams enter with momentum. Last year the Saints won this game by a score of 27-20 at home. While we feel an outright is possible, our official call will be to grab as many points as you can; the play is New Orleans!

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10* UNDER USF/Cuse (BOWL WINNER)

This is a great situational play. Syracuse is the favorite here, but it's already undergone big changes since ending the regular season, including firing its head coach Nunzio Campanile, who will be replaced by Fran Brown. Both teams finished 6-6, but now Cuse will be using a new man under center for this bowl game in Braden Davis, who played in two games this season and has one pass and rushed the ball twice. That means that running the ball is paramount for the Orange, and they'll be leaning heavily on LeQuint Allen, who had 1,062 rushing yards and nine TD's. USF is led by QB Byrum Brown, who has 3,078 yards passing and a 23:11 TD:INT. The defense catches a break here this week, but expect Brown to be under pressure from the Orange who concede 23.8 PPG and ranked 75th against the pass. Expect the longer lay-off and the changes to the line-ups to help in contributing to the Boca Raton Bowl staying well "under" the number once it's all said and done this year!

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10* UNDER Leafs/Sabres (10* Atlantic DIV GOY)

Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but we're expecting a much tighter and ultimately lower-scoring battle here finally in Buffalo between these Atlantic division rivals. Toronto has seen the total go "over" the number in five straight, which is signficant for us to take note of, because the Leafs have in fact seen the total go "under" the number in seven of their last ten after playing to five or more straight "overs" in a row. Toronto also plays with revenge here afer a 6-4 home loss to the Sabres back in early November, which is also important for us to take note of here because the Leafs have seen the total go "under" the number in three of their last four in trying to avenge a divisional road loss vs. an opponent. Off a 9-4 home loss to Columbus last time out and off B2B losses in a row, we can expect Buffalo to double down on the defensive end here. The overall situation combined with the numbers/trends all point to a lower-scoring "under!" 

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10* Manhattan (MID-MAJOR BLOWOUT)

We're not predicting an outright upset or anything, but everything definitely points to much more of a competitive battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Manhattan comes in "under the radar" here after B2B losses. Most recently it was a 76-71 home loss to FDU. Monmouth has been trading wins/losses over its last four games and coming off a 77-71 win over Rider, we're expecting this trend to continue here. That said, we're not expecting the outright upset, but rather we just don't see the Hawks covering this large spread. As stated off the top, DO NOT sprinkle anything on the moneyline in this one, but do DEFINITELY grab as many points as you can; the play is indeed on Manhattan!

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8* Kings (BIG-CHALK DESTRUCTION)

We play underdogs. We play totals. We're also not afraid to "lay chalk" when we feel that our "play on" sides should/could in fact be much larger favorites, and that's DEFINITELY the case in this one. Seattle is just 4-6-3-3 on the road this year. LA just won 3-2 in a shootout in Seattle last weekend and we're expecting an even bigger blowout this time around. LA is 18-6 and off b2b victories and all signs point to another victory here at home, despite already crusing to a 4-1 win at San Jose just last night; lay the price with confidence, the play is LA!

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10* Lakers (NON-CONF GOY)

Here's a great spot for the 16-12 Lakers to bounce back in for bettors. LA has lost three of its last four. It's also now lost four straight ATS after a 114-109 home loss to New York (note though that the Lakers are still 7-3 ATS in their last ten after three or more straight ATS losses in a row.) And with a game at Minnesota tomorrow, the Lakers won't want to leave anything to chance here. Chicago has been trading wins/losses over its last ofur games and off a 108-104 upset win at Philadelphia as a 10.5-point dog last time out, we're expecting this pattern to continue; lay the points, the play is LA!

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10* Seton Hall (BIG EAST GOM)

UConn is 10-1 and Seton Hall is 7-4. Dan Hurley coached UConn to a title last year, and so far the Huskies look great this season as well. We just think they're now a bit overvalued here, as we're expecting the Pirates to risk life and limb to secure a victory here. Seton Hall has won two straight and it's faced some stiff competition this season already in USC, Iowa, Baylor and Rutgers. This is a big Big East matchup and while we'll stop short in calling for the outright upset, everything points to a much tighter battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe; grab the points, the play is Seton Hall!

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10* UNDER UTSA/Marshall (TOP TOTAL)

UTSA is strong against the run, and Marshall is going to have to be forced to go to the run early and often with QB Cam Fancher out, and redshirt freshman Cole Pennington taking over. He'll be handing the ball to Rasheen Ali, who had over 1,000 yards rushing. Marshall only averages 23 PPG. UTSA averages 31.7, but it'll have its hands full here with this aggressive Herd defense. With each team putting an added emphasis on establishing the run throughout on this one like we expect, all signs point to this total staying UNDER the number once it's all said and done!

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10* Bruins puckline (ASSASSIN)

No need to overthink this one. After three straight victories, the Wild came up short in last night's 4-3 loss at Pittsburgh last night. We believe fatigue will play a major factor in Minnesota's effort here tonight. The Wild have two nights off after this before a game with the Habs, so this sets up as a natural letdown/look-ahead spot. The Bruins will look to take advantage and to shake out of small sluggish slump, as they've been trading wins/losses over their last six games and are off the 2-1 OT loss here to the Rangers two nights ago. And with an upcoming road trip over X-Mas, that puts added emphasis onto this game for the Bruins. We're expecting the home side to not only win this game, but to do it in blowout fashion; lay the goals and take the Bruins on the puckline option!

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10* Florida (BLOCKBUSTER)

Florida is 7-3 and Michigan is 6-5. This is the opener of the Jumpman Invitational. The Gators come in riding a three-game win streak, most recently beating ECU 70-65. Michigan is 1-1 in Big Ten play, losing 78-75 to Indiana, and then bouncing back with a 90-80 win over Iowa. Michigan's defense has been sub-par though, ranked 126th in defensive efficiency. Florida has four guards averaging over 9.7 points per game and we're expecting this difficult backcourt to lead their team to a solid win and cover here; lay the points, the play is Florida!

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10* Flames (NON-CONF GOW)

Florida snapped a two-game road slide with a 5-1 win at Edmonton last time out, but with two nights off before a home game vs. the Blues, we're expecting a predictable mental letdown here in this difficult road venue. No such luxury for the Flames though who snapped a three-game slide with a 4-2 win here vs. Tampa last time out. With a road trip upcoming, we say the home side doubles down here and delivers in this important contest. All things considered, we feel this to be the very definition of "great line value;" the play is Calgary!

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10* Seahawks (ATS BLOOD-BATH)

This is a big game for each team, but more so for the home side we'll argue. While we clearly feel the outright win is a very real possibility, our official call will be to grab as many points as you can. The Eagles are 10-3 and the Seahawks are 6-7. Philly is 5-2 away from friendly confines, but we think the Eagles are ripe for the picking after B2B losses, including a humbling 33-13 setback at division rival Dallas last weekend. With nearly 70% of the early public money on the visitors as well, we're natually going to gravitate towards the underdog anyways. But this is it for the Hawks essentially, almost in a "do or die" situation here. As stated off the top, a great situational play here on the desperate home side; grab the points the play is indeed on Seattle!

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10* Maryland-Eastern Shore (MID-MAJOR MAULING)

We think the Maryland-Eastern Short Hawks will fly in "under the radar" here and, at the very least, post a comfortable cover with what we feel is a very large spread that's been afforded to it here in this matchup. Yes, the Hawks have lost four straight on the road, but they've faced some stiff competition in Notre Dame, Liberty, East Carolina and NC State. Marist is 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in its last five, but note that the Red Foxes are in fact just 3-7 ATS in their last ten after five or more straight ATS victories in a row. No outright here, but much closer than expected; a great situational play on Maryland-Eastern Shore!

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10* UNDER Ravens/Jags (SUPER TOTAL)

This total opened at 44, and it's since dropped. But it's not dropped nearly enough in our estimation, as we're expecting a very lower-scoring defensive "war of attrition." Baltimore if 10-3, including 4-1 on the road, while Jacksonville is 8-5, including 2-4 at home. Baltimore has won three straight, while Jacksonville has lost two straight. But after last week's 37-31 OT win over the Rams, we're expecting a more conservative game-plan from the Ravens here on the road. Overall the Ravens average 27.8 PPG, while allowing 16.8. The Jags have a QB issue right now with Trevor Lawrence injured. Backup Joe Flacco looked decent last week, but as we say, the QB situation isn't the greatest right now for the home side. Jacksonville averages 24 PPG, while allowing 22.3. With both teams coming off high-scoring affairs, in our opinion everything points to a much tighter, and ultimately lower-scoring battle this time around, where field position and taking care of the football will become the deciding factors on who comes out on top; this number is a little high, the play is the "under!" 

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10* UNDER Wizards/Suns (ASSASSIN)

Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but we're expecting a much tighter, and ultimately lower-scoring battle here on Sunday. Washington is just 4-20 overall, and it's coming off a rare home victory, beating the Pacers 137-123. Remarkably, that contest stayed "under" the number of 261. Now here on the road, we're expecting this Wizards offense to once again predictably stumble. In their last two road games (both losses), they've posted a combined 198 points. The Suns have lost four of their last five. They're coming off a humbling 139-122 loss at home to the Knicks, but note that Phoenix has seen the total go "under" in eight of its last 12 off a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite. We anticipate a much slower pace than what this O/U line is suggesting; the play is indeed on the "under!" 

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10* Cardinals (NFC WEST GOY)

Are we suggesting an outright victory?! Of course not! But in a contest that we see a lot more competitive than what this spread is suggesting, we're going to recommend to grab the points. San Francisco is 10-3, including 5-2 on the road, but with a home date vs. the Ravens on X-Mas Day, there's no question that this sets up as a "look-ahead" spot. But how could it also not be a "letdown" spot after five straight SU wins? That includes an important win over Seattle last week. Can anyone say "Trap game?!" Arizona snapped a two-game slide with a spirited 24-10 road win at Pittsburgh last weekend and there's no reason not to think that the team won't bring that same "spoiler mentality" to this one as well. Outright win?! As we stated off the top, we're not calling for that, but the overall situation, numbers and trends are all pointing to this one being a "nail-biter;" grab the points, the play is Arizona.

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10* Syracuse (WINNER)

Oregon is 7-2 and Syracuse is 6-3. Oregon is on a three-game win streak. Overall the Ducks have allowed just 52 PPG, but their level of competition needs to be taken into account. Overall Oregon is averaging 81.2 PPG. The Orange lost their conference opener to UVA, but then they bounced back with two wins last week. Overall Syracuse is averaging 77.2 PPG, while conceding just 70.8. Oregon has some injury issues at center and Syracuse's offense has been incredibly efficient of late. This one has "uspet" written all over, meaning that grabbing the points is definitely the correct call in our opinion; the play is indeed on Syracuse!

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10* Flames (BOB)

Here is a great situational bet. Calgary offers fantastic line value here. Tampa Bay is just 6-9-2-0 on the road, but after a 7-4 win at Edmonton last time out, we're expecting a predictable letdown here. Especially with two nights off after this before finally returning home for a game vs. the Blues. Calgary on the other hand will be risking life and limb to try and snap its current four-game slide and as stated off the top, this in our opinion represents the very definition of "great line value;" lay the short price, the play is Calgary!

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10* Cal (BLOWOUT)

Both teams enter the Independence Bowl at 6-6 and in a contest that we see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, we're grabbing the points. This game features plenty of absences via the transfer portal and opt outs, and because of that, these teams are more evenly matched than ever in our estimation. Cal goes with QB Fernand Mendoza under center, while Texas Tech QB Behren Morton. The Bears though have overall looked more solid offense down the stretch and Texas Tech has already struggled in this spot this season, going just 1-3 SU/ATS as a road favorite. Granted, this is a neutral site game, but it doesn't matter. While we feel the outright win is possible, in the end we'll recommend to grab as many points as you can with Cal!

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10* Lions (NON-CONF GOW)

Denver is 7-6 now, including 3-3 on the road, while Detroit is 9-4 overall, including 4-2 at home. The Broncos got back on track last week with a 24-7 win over the Chargers, but that was without Justin Herbert in the line-up. Detroit comes in as the hungrier team here after dropping two of its last three, including a listless 28-13 setback at Chicago as a three-point favorite last weekend (note though that the Lions are 7-3 ATS in their last ten after a SU/ATS road loss as favorites.) With two of their next three to close out the year on the road, this puts added emphasis onto this game for Detroit as well. The overall situation, and also the trends all points to Detroit as the correct call here on Saturday night!

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10* Pistons (ASSASSIN)

This is a great "situational" play in our opinion. Clearly, we're not calling for the outright upset or anything crazy like that, but we do think the hungry Pistons will be able to keep it close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Detroit is just 2-23 and 1-11 on the road after last night's 124-92 loss at Philadelphia. That's now five straight ATS losses in a row for Detroit, which is in fact important for us to take note of here, as the Pistons are in fact 7-3 ATS in their last ten after five or more ATS losses in a row. Not surprisingly, the Pistons play with revenge after a competitive 120-118 loss here at the start of the year. Milwaukee just posted the 140-126 win here over the Pacers, but with high-flying Houston coming to town tomorrow, we expect the home side to get caught "looking ahead;" grab the points, the play is Detroit!

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10* Georgetown (SUPER BLOWOUT)

We like the 6-4 Hoyas to battle tough and to, at the very least, keep this one close enough to earn the comfortable ATS cover. The Hoyas snapped a two-game slide with a win over Coppin State last tmie out. Notre Dame on the other hnad is 4-5 and it comes in with zero momentum after a loss at Marquette on the road. Georgetown is averaging 77.8 PPG, while allowing 73.7, while ND is averaging 64.2 PPG, while conceding 67.3. Of course, the level of competition for both sides to this point needs to be taken into account, but regardless of that fact, we still feel that the visitors are getting "overlooked" by the oddsmakers in this one; lay the points, the play is Georgetown!

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8* Georgia Southern (BLOWOUT)

Ohio finished 9-3, while Georgia Southern finished 6-6. So why are the Eagles favored in this one? Ohio sees QB Kurtis Rourke enter the transfer portal, well its backup QB CJ Harris has been sidelined with injury. Parker Navarro will make the start here for the Bobcats and we're predicting that he predictably stumbles here in this difficult situation. The Eagles are led by second year head coach Clay Helton, who makes his second straight bowl appearance. Georgia Southern is 5-3 ATS as a favorite this season and we think its defense will be able to set up its offense in this one; lay the points, the play is indeed on Georgia Southern!

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10* Newcastle (EPL GOW)

Newcastle is off a 2-1 midweek loss to AC Milan, which has officially dashed its European dreams. Fulham is off back-to-back 5-0 wins over West Ham and Nottingham, but we're fully expecting the visitors to back down to earth here. Fulham upset Everton 1-0 on the road in the first game of the season, but since then it's gone winless away from friendly confines. Newcastle has now also missed out on the Europa League, so it only has domestic games to take care of and worry about now until the end of the season. Now back home and looking to take out their frustrations, as they've also dropped their last two EPL contests as well, falling 3-0 at Everton, before a 4-1 loss at Tottenham. Home field is the difference-maker here; lay the price, the play is Newcastle!

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10* UNDER Sens/Stars (BOB)

Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but we're anticipating more of a defensive affair here finally between these non-conference clubs on Friday night. Ottawa is just 11-13 and off back-to-back losses, including a 4-2 setback at St. Louis just last night. The Sens have played to five straight "overs," but that's significant for us to take note of as Ottawa has in fact seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row. Dallas has had a few nights off after a 6-3 win over Detroit, but with a game at St. Louis tomorrow night, the home side could also be caught "looking ahead" here. Either way you cut it, the overall situation, combined with the trends/numbers all do indeed point to a very defensive affair in this one; the play is the "under!" 

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10* Northern Colorado (SUPER SHOCKER)

Here's a great "spot" wager. Northern Colorado is 4-5 overall, while Colorado is 7-2. The Bears are winless on the road, while the Buffs are undefeated at home. Off an upset 90-63 neutral court win over Miami last time out as a two-point dog though, we believe that Colorado will indeed suffer a minor mental letdown here facing their lowly in-state rival. The Buffs break starts soon with conference play looming vs. Washington just after X-Mas. Last year the Buffs won this game 88-77 here, unable to cover the 15.5-point spread. Everything points to a similar final discrepancy here as well; so grab the points, as this is indeed a great situational play on Northern Colorado!

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10* UNDER Pistons/76ers (BLOOD-BATH)

Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but we're expecting more of a defensive affair here finally on Friday night. Detroit is now 2-22 this year after a 129-111 loss at home to Philly just two nights ago. The Pistons have seen the total go "over" in two straight, but note that Detroit has seen the total go "under" the number in three of its last four in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss vs. an opponent. Philly's seen the total go "over" in eight straight now. The general betting public is almost auto-betting the "over" now whenever the 76ers take the court these days, but with a game at Charlotte tomorrow night, we feel the home side takes the foot off the gas in the second half; this number is high, the play is the "under!"

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10* Chargers/Raiders OVER (AFC TOW)

LA is 5-8 and it's lost its starting QB for the remainder of the year. Last week the Chargers fell 24-7 at home to Denver. Las Vegas is 5-8 and it's coming off a 3-0 home loss to Minnesota last Sunday. LA has lost four of its last five and it's averaged just 7.7 PPG over its last three. Overall though the Chargers average 21.7 PPG. The problem is, the defense is also conceding 21.7 PPG as well. Look for Easton Stick to be given the green light here and to improve upon his numbers from last week vs. Denver, where he finished 13 of 24 for 179 yards. The Raiders are only averaging 15.5 PPG, while allowing 19.9. Last week QB Aidan O'Connel went 21 of 32 for 171 yards. So far he's average 195 yards passing as a starter and has a 4:7 TD:INT. The Raiders though have seen the total go "over" the number in seven of their last ten though off a SU/ATS shutout home loss. Yes, these teams are messes, but the overall situation finally points to more of a wide-open offensive affair; this number is indeed a little low, the play is the "over!" 

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10* Bruins (UNDERDOG OF YEAR)

We feel we're getting great line value here on the superior team, despite it being on the road. Boston and New Jersey face off for the first time this season and we like the Bruins to send a message here. Boston is off the 5-2 home win over Arizona and it's won four of its last five. New Jersey had its three game win streak come to an end in a 4-1 loss at Edmonton, and now in its first game back after that four-game Western swing, we're expecting a classic "letdown." If recent history is any precedence, then Boston has to be loving its chances, as it's 8-1-1 the last ten in this series. As stated off the top, this play is all about perceived value; the play is indeed on Boston!

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10* Suns (PACIFIC DIVISION GOY)

After going just 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS in their last five, we like the Suns to dig deep here and not only win this game, but also to do it in blowout fashion. They beat Golden State here 123-115 back in November and we're predicting a similar final outcome here as well. Both teams have had a few days off, but the Suns have hit a favorable part of their schedule, with three more very winnable home games after this. We're expecting Phoenix to shake off its recent slump. The Warriors were last in action four days ago as well, but they fell 138-136 in OT to the Thunder. KD is supposed to play here, but whether he does or not, this one sets up great situationally for Phoenix in our opinion; lay the short points, the play is indeed on the Suns!

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10* Predators (ASSASSIN)

Philadelphia has been playing great. It's 15-10-2-0 overall, including 9-4-1-0 on the road. However, after four straight wins, including two in OT vs. Pittsburgh, and then two straight on the road vs. Arizona and Colorado, and with a night off before finally returning home for two games starting with the Capitals, not only do we feel this is a natural letdown spot for this overachieving Flyers teams, but also a "look ahead." So that = "trap game." Nashville has won four of its last five, is 15-13-0-0 overall and 9-6-0-0 at home. Look for the Predators to take advantage of home ice as we take advantage of this great price; the play is Nashville!

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10* IUPUI (ATS SUPER SHOCKER)

Are we suggesting that IUPUI will win this game outright?! Of course not. We just love the way this one sets up for the visiting side, as we anticipate that Minnesota will take the foot off the gas in the second half, allowing the 3-7 Jaguars more than enough room to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. The Gophers have gone 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS over their last four, but with the X-Mas break on the horizon, we feel they'll get caught looking past their lowly opponent here. Minnesota is 7-1 at home and is 9-1 ATS overall this year. But now it's for sure the Gophers who are overvalued here. Looking at the offensive and defensive numbers doesn't tell the whole story here. The situational factors working in favor of the visiting side tip the scales in the Jaguars favor; grab the points, the play is indeed on IUPUI!

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10* Blazers (ASSASSIN)

We love the way this one sets up for the Blazers from a situational stand-point. Portland is 6-15 overall, including only 4-9 on the road, but they're 8-5 ATS away from friendly confines. The Clippers are 11-10 overall, including 7-3 SU at home, but they're just 5-5 ATS in LA. Portland is coming off three straight SU losses, but that's significant to note as the Blazers are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 after three or more straight losses in a row. They play with revenge after a 123-111 loss as a 9.5 point dog here back in October as well, and note that Portland is in fact 3-1 ATS in its last four in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent. The Clippers have won three in a row, but with the Kings coming to town tomorrow night, this one sets up as a potential "trap" game with the "letdown/look-ahead" factors both in full effect; grab the points, the play is Portland!

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8* UNDER Packers/Giants.

Green Bay is 6-6 and New York is 4-8. The Giants have won two in a row and they'll be eager to extend that streak here against the rookie Jordan Love, who has been on fire for the visiting side. The Packers have won three straight and four of their last five including a convincing 27-19 home win over the Chiefs last weekend. We think most impressive though was the Packers defense. The last thing New York can do here is to turn this into a "track meet" with Love. With both sides looking to limit mistakes on the national stage, look for field position to play a big part in the final outcome of this one and for this total to ultimatley stay well "under" the number once it's all said and done.

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8* Titans.

The Titans are off a 31-28 OT loss at home to Indianapolis, while Miami cruised to a 45-15 win over the Commanders. The Titans looked decent offensively last week, and defensively they're still conceding just 21.3 PPG. Miami has won three straight, but with a home divisional contest vs. the Jets, followed by a game vs. the Cowboys and Ravens, this sets up as a classic "trap" for the home side in our opinion. No outright, but look for Tennessee to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch; grab the points, the play is the Titans!

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8* UNDER Titans/Dolphins.

We're making a play on the Titans and grabbing the points in this one, as well as also expecting this contest to be a lower-scoring defensive affair. Tennessee's defense is conceding just 21.3 PPG. We're also expecting the home side to take the foot off the gas in the second half as it gets caught looking ahead. Field position will be crucial in the end in deciding this contest; the play is the "under!" 

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10* Sabres (NON-CONF GOY)

We love the way this one sets up for Buffalo. Arizona is 13-11-2-0 overall, including 5-6-2-0 on the road, while the Sabres are 11-14-2-1 overall, including 5-7-0-1 at home. After a 5-game win streak, the Coyotes though are now coming off B2B losses, and with a much more high-profile game tomorrow night in Pittsburgh, we believe the visitors get caught looking ahead. It's essentially a "trap game" here for the Coyotes in our opinion, despite the back-to-back losses. The Sabres have lost four of their last five, including a 3-2 shootout loss here to the Habs last time out. They hit the road for three straight tough road games after this (Colorado, Vegas and a rematch with the Coyotes), putting added importance onto tonight's outcome. Considering all of the different situational factors working in favor of Buffalo, we do in fact consider this to be the very definition of "great line value;" the play is indeed on Buffalo!

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10* UNDER Eagles/Cowboys (NFC EAST TOY)

These two teams are steaming towards the finish line. Philadelphia is 10-2, including 5-1 on the road, while Dallas is 9-3, including 6-0 at home. Dallas has seen the total go "over" in five of its last six after last week's 41-35 victory over Seattle. The Cowboys play with revenge as well after a 28-23 loss at Philadelphia back in November, and note that Dallas has in fact seen the total go "under" the number in four of its last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS divisional road loss vs. an opponent. Philadephia's five-game win streak was snapped in last week's listless 42-19 loss at San Francisco, so we just feel that Philly will be extra cautious and we expect it to double down on the defensive end in this difficult road venue. Look for the rematch to be decided by field position and ultimately expect this total to stay well "under" the number once it's all said and done!

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10* Bills (UNDERDOG OF MONTH)

While clearly the outright win is a very real possibility, in the end our official call will be to grab as many points as you can. Buffalo is 6-6 and KC is 8-4. The Bills are off the 37-34 OT loss at Philadelphia, but had the last week off to regroup and prepare for this one. It was a back-and-forth start for the Bills, but the bye week came at a great time. KC has been playing terribly in losing two of its last three, including a 27-17 setback at Green Bay as a six-point favorite last week. No one is fearing this Chiefs' offense right now, and now the defense also looks shaky. As stated off the top, we firmly believe the outright upset is a possibility, but in the end we'll recommend to grab as many points as you can with Buffalo!

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10* OVER Broncos/Chargers (AFC WEST TOM)

Denver is 6-6 now after falling 22-17 at Houston last weekend. Previous to that Denver had won six straight. The Broncos now face divisional opponent LA, which snapped a three game slide with a 6-0 win at new England last time out. That however is very significant to note here as the Chargers have in fact seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 12 after a SU/ATS road win in which they shutout their opponent. It's a super important divisional game and we're fully expecting this sense of intense competition to translate into offensive production on the field of play; this number is low, the play is the "over!" 

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8* Oilers (SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION)

We base our picks on many different things. This one is based upon "perceived value." We actually believe that the Oilers should/could in fact be much larger favorites in this spot. This is a great situational play, as the Devils come in extremely fatigued at the end of a long West-coast trip, including a 4-2 win at Calgary just last night. Would anyone fault the Devils having a bit of a mental letdown here after sweeping the first three games of the road trip, and which will be followed with three whole days off before a very important home game vs. conference rival Boston?! The Oilers poor start to the season has them playing "catch up," but they've looked great of late winning six in a row. Look for the home side to take advantage of the home ice and this situation and to ultimately find a way to get the job done at the end of the night; lay the price with confidence, the play is Edmonton!

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10* Jets (ASSASSIN)

Houston appears to be the "flavor of the week" right now and we think it's now getting a little TOO much repsect here from the oddsmakers on the road. The Jets have lost five straight SU/ATS, but that's significant for us to take note of here, as NY has in fact gone 7-3 ATS in its last ten after five or more SU/ATS losses in a row. Houston has won four of its last five, including a 22-17 victory at home over Denver. The Texans are just 2-3 SU on the road though. With a game at division rival Tennessee the following week, the possibility of getting caught "looking ahead" is also there for the visiting side; we love how this one sets up for New York!

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10* SDSU (ASSASSIN)

We base our picks on many different things. This particular one is a great "situational" play in our opinion. And it's also backed up by a couple of rock solid ATS stats to support our theory here. UC Irvine is 6-3 this year, but just 1-3 on the road. SDSU is 7-2 this season, including 3-0 at home. The Aztecs won't be taking anything for granted here after their six-game win streak was snapped in a 79-73 loss at Grand Canyon as 2.5-point favorites last time out. SDSU has lost five straight ATS, but note that the Aztecs are 7-3 ATS in their last ten after five or more straight ATS losses in a row. The Anteaters have zero momentum off B2B losses and they'll get no respite here either; lay the points, the play is SDSU!

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10* OVER (TOP TOTAL)

The In-Season Tournament Final is being played at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The Lakers made no doubt about moving into the Final with a resounding 133-89 win over New Orleans last time out. We fully believe that LBJ and company will be able to duplicate that offensive output here vs. this porous Pacers' defense. Indiana got to this point, not because of its lock-down defensive play, but because of its high-octane offense that pushes the pace from start to finish. And if Indiana is going to pull off another upset, it'll be out to do what it does best, and that's keeping the foot on the gas from start to finish. Everything points to this total flying "over" the number sooner, rather than later!

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10* Dallas (WEST-CONF NON-DIV GOY)

Two really good teams going head-to-head here and honestly it would not be difficult to write a convincing argument for either team to come out on top in this one. But at this price, we love the way this one sets up for the home side. Dallas plays with revenge after a 2-1 OT loss here to the Golden Knights on November 22nd, and they've been near-perfect in this spot of late by going 4-1 in their last fivein trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Vegas has a much more "winnable" game at home the following night vs. the Sharks, so the possibility of getting caught "looking ahead" is also there as well. Dallas just snapped a two-game slide with a 5-4 shootout win in the Nation's capital and everything points to the home side earning the revenge from the earlier loss; lay the price, the play is the Stars!

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10* OVER Army/Navy (NON-CONF TOM)

This game features two above average defenses, and two offenses which will run, run again, and then run some more! That said, we still feel that this total is ridiculous, as we're anticipating this competitive affair to translate into some offensive production on the field of play, which makes the "over" the correct call as far as the total is concerned. Last year Army came from behind to win 17-14 as a 3-point dog. Navy and Army have split the last four games, but we believe that good field position, set up by turnovers, will also help in contributing with this one going "over" the total once it's all said and done!

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