This is a 10* play on ST. LOUIS

Of all the teams that could have come to Busch Stadium this week, the Cardinals would probably have the Pirates near the top of that list. They beat them last night, 6-2, to improve to 10-4 head to head with Pittsburgh this season. The win also snapped a five-game losing skid, the entirety of which occurred on the West Coast (in Oakland and LA). As for the Pirates, they've lost six in a row and 22 of 26 since the All Star Break. So they are what St. Louis needs right now as the Cardinals try and keep pace with the Cubs in the Central Division. The Cards will start Adam Wainwright on Saturday and like most others in this rotation, he's a lot better at home (2.26 ERA) than he is on the road. Pittsburgh starter Musgrove has been lousy wherever he starts and especially lately as his ERA and WHIP in his last three starts are 9.42 and 1.605 respectively. Play ST. LOUIS

AAA

This is an 8* play on DETROIT

The Tigers are arguably the worst team in baseball, but this is one of the few series where the odds are in their favor. Sure enough, they've beaten the Royals each of the past two days, 10-8 and 5-2. Incredibly, this is the first time the Tigers have won consecutive games since a three-game win streak at the end of May. That's their only win streak since April, which is quite the "achievement." Despite history not being on their side Saturday, we'll back the team from the Motor City. Spencer Turnbull may have an 0-8 TSR his last eight starts, but that's more a byproduct of pitching for a bad team than his own personal shortcomings. Turnbull has allowed no more than three runs in six of those eight starts. Kansas City is not a good team and has lost all four starts made by Montgomery, who gets the nod here. While 26-73 against "everyone else," the Tigers are 9-5 against the Royals this season. Play on DETROIT

AAA

This is a 10* Play on OTTAWA

The Redblacks got a much needed win last week by going into Montreal and coming out ahead 28-27 as 6.5 point underdogs. That snapped a four-game losing streak. We believe that it's critical to point out that three of those four losses came at the hands of Winnipeg or Calgary, arguably the two best teams in the league right now. All three Ottawa wins this seasons have come by four points or less, but they're underdogs again this week and that's a role that has suited them quite well. The Redblacks are 3-1 ATS as dogs this season and won two of the games outright. Here they'll be catching Edmonton one week removed from losing to provincial rival Calgary in a hard fought game. Could this be a "letdown" spot for the Eskimos? We're willing to bank that it will be. Three of Edmonton's four wins this year have come against Toronto and B.C., who are a combined 2-12 straight up and the other was in Week 1 against a Montreal team that was the worst in the league last year. Grab the points in this one. Play on OTTAWA 

AAA

This is a 10* on CLEVELAND

Cleveland is now just one game back of Minnesota following Thursday's 7-5 wn. Winning tonight would obviously pull them into a first place tie. The Twins once led the Indians by as many as 11.5 games and were ahead by 7.5 games as recently as July 13th. But the Indians have caught fire by going 40-16 their last 56 games. Perhaps this young Minnesota team is now feeling the heat as they have lost three in a row for just the second time all year. Their other three-game losing streak came right after the All Star Break and was snapped with a 6-3 win over Oakland. But expect a different result this time as Cleveland's Shane Bieber has been virtually untouchable of late with two complete games in his last three starts, one of them a shutout. The Indians are 16-7 in Bieber starts this year and he has a 0.75 WHIP on the road. Twins starter Smeltzer has only started three games. In two of them, he didn't allow a run. But the third was against Cleveland and he gave up all five runs in a 5-2 loss. Bieber has beaten the Twins both times he faced them this year. Play on CLEVELAND

AAA

This is a 10* on MINNESOTA

The Vikings will never forget their 2017 playoff win over the Saints. A Google search of "The Miracle of Minneapolis" will quickly remind you of what transpired there. The Saints did gain a measure of revenge by coming here last year and winning a regular season game 30-20, but once again their season ended in heartbreak thanks to some questionable officiating in the NFC Championship Game. New Orleans plays host to the latest Vikings-Saints tussle and far less is on the line compared to two years ago as it's only preseason. That means no Drew Brees for the Saints (hasn't taken a preseason snap since 2016) and little of Kirk Cousins for the Vikings. But we look for the Purple People Eaters to get the job done Friday as the Saints are unlikely to take this game very seriously. NO has failed to cover all four preseason home games the last two years. The two years before that saw them go a combined 0-8 in preseason games. Play on MINNESOTA

AAA

This is an 8* Play on ATLANTA

Look for the Braves to bounce back from last night's embarrassing 9-2 loss to the Marlins. Did you know that Atlanta is 12-1 this season as a road favorite of -125 to 175? Or 23-6 in that role since the start of the 2017 season? Well they are. They were actually priced higher than that range last night with Dallas Keuchel on the mound, but he got chased after five innings with Miami up 8-0. Look for a better start Friday from Julio Teheran. This will be his fourth start of the year against the Marlins. The previous three have resulted in 18 scoreless innings and only nine hits allowed! So it's fair to say Teheran has had this division rival's number. Miami has scored way fewer runs that every other NL team, so last night's offensive explosion was a real rarity. Caleb Smith will pitch for the Marlins. While he's largely been effective, the Braves are going to be highly motivated tonight. Smith won't get much support. Play on ATLANTA

AAA

This is a 10* play on the UNDER

The A's and White Sox play a daytime affair on Friday and this is one where Oakland has to take advantage. They are in a competitive Wild Card race and taking on a team that has generally played very poorly in the second half of the season. But our focus is on the total. The good news for the A's is that you have to figure starter Michael Fiers will pitch well here. He's unbeaten in his last 16 starts (8-0) with a 2.26 ERA. Fiers has never lost to Chicago in his career as he's 3-0 with a 1.83 ERA in seven starts and the ERA is even lower at Guaranteed Rate Field. He shut them out for 7+ innings at home last month as well. The White Sox are 28th in runs scored, so it's definitely a favorable match for Fiers. But we don't look for the A's to score all that many runs either today. They scored just one run on Wednesday in a loss to the Cubs across town. The Under is 23-7-1 their last 31 games vs. the AL Central. Under is 6-1-1 for the White Sox following an off day. Play UNDER Oakland-Chicago

AAA

This is a 10* on SEATTLE

Our favorite play on the Thursday NFLX card is Seattle, who is now GETTING points at most shops for some reason. Denver did win the Hall of Fame Game, but was largely unimpressive in doing so. They got a late turnover and converted it into a game-winning touchdown with less than 90 seconds left. Prior to that, the Broncos offense had gained just 150 total yards. Seattle was winless in the preseason last year, so expect them to be motivated. Last year aside, Pete Carroll has been a great bet in these preseason games, going 22-14 SU including three perfect years, the most recent coming in 2017. This game is in Seattle, so the Seahawks ought to be more motivated to win one in front of the fans. We just don't think the Denver QB situation is very good right now behind Joe Flacco and quite honestly, we're not sure Flacco is any good. The Seahawks have strong group of running backs, which means they should be able to move the ball throughout the game, no matter whom is in at quarterback. Play on SEATTLE

AAA

This is an 8* play on LOS ANGELES

The Sparks (LA) come into this one on a three-game win streak. They've covered in all three wins as well. The last two have come at home where they'll play again Thursday, hosting Phoenix. The visiting Mercury come in on a 5-game ATS win streak. They've lost two of those games though, both on the road. Phoenix has lost eight straight here at the Staples Center, a terrible sign for tonight. They did play their best game of the season over the weekend, beating Washington 103-82. But don't look for the Mercury to be that hot again as they shot 58.2% from the field in that easy victory. For the year, they shoot barely 40% on the road. This is a revenge spot for the Sparks after losing by 10 early in the season at Phoenix. They've gone 8-3 ATS the last 11 games and are 22-8-1 ATS when playing with three or more days rest. Play on LOS ANGELES

AAA

This is an 8* play on CLEVELAND

Few teams come into the 2019 season with more hype than the Browns. When's the last time anyone said that? But given how the team improved over the 2nd half of the 2018 season and the addition of Odell Beckham Jr (plus several key additions on the defensive side of the ball), the optimism surrounding the team is probably justified. Freddie Kitchens was largely credited with the improvement we saw from QB Baker Mayfield throughout his rookie season and that earned him the head coaching job. Tonight is Kitchens' 1st home game as Browns coach. It comes against a Redskins team that has more questions than answers right now. We're not sure what the reason is for the substantial swing in the line here, but there's definitely value on the Browns now. Washington doesn't really have a starting QB right now as the job will go to either Colt McCoy or Case Keenum before rookie Dwayne Haskins eventually takes over. The Browns have won 7 of their 8 preseason games the last two years and will be motivated to win this one for Kitchens. Play on CLEVELAND

AAA

This is an 8* play on the OVER

Baltimore's preseason prowess under Jim Harbaugh is well documented. They've gone a perfect 9-0 straight up the last two years, including a win in the 2018 Hall of Fame Game. So it's not a surprise they're laying more than you usually see this time of year. But what is surprising is how low the total is. It doesn't take much for a game to go Over a number this low, so we're taking full advantage. Lamar Jackson won't play much for the Ravens, leaving the QB duties to Trace McSorley and Joe Callahan. The Ravens averaged 25.4 points/game in the preseason last year. These teams practiced against one another during the week, so there's some familiarity. Jacksonville has a good defense, but don't expect to see much of the top talent on the field Thursday. Same for QB Nick Foles on offense. Foles was acquired to help resurrect an offense that was last in the league in points per game last year. The Jags offense should be a little motivated here to show improvement. Play OVER Jacksonville-Baltimore

AAA

This is a 6* play on the YANKEES

The Yankees are rolling again. They are off a sweep in Baltimore where they hit 17 homers in three games and scored 32 runs total. They've won eight straight overall. This series with the Blue Jays figures to go their way as well. The Yankees are 6-3 vs. Toronto this season and the last time Domingo German pitched against them, he threw six shutout innings. German has a 15-3 team start record this year as his last six starts have all been NY wins. Toronto hits really poorly at home (.221 average) while giving up 5.5 runs/game. We just don't know how the Blue Jays can keep pace with the Yankees offense here. Not with Thomas Pannone pitching, that's for sure. Pannone is 0-3 in his five starts so far with a 9.28 ERA and 1.547 WHIP. This is every bit the mismatch it appears to be on paper. Toronto is off a 7-3 road trip, but two of the series were with Baltimore and Kansas City. This is a big step up. The Yankees have scored 58 runs during their eight-game win streak. Play on NEW YORK

AAA

This is a 10* on NEW YORK

The Liberty have lost six of their last seven coming into tonight, so they're big underdogs in Chicago. This is a revenge game as the lost here in the Windy City, 99-83, last month. But they were only 3.5 point underdogs for that game. The line is much higher now. Why? Well, they did lose by 16 in that last meeting and also lost to the Sky by eight at home earlier in the season. Then you have the losing streak. Chicago has won five of its last six, the only loss coming at Connecticut as seven-point underdogs. However, we feel this is an inflated number. The Sky actually trailed by double digits in the first half of their last game, which ended up being an 87-75 win over a bad Atlanta team. But laying this many points to a desperate NY team seems like a bad idea. Play NEW YORK

AAA

This is a 10* play on the UNDER

The Padres will be going for a season sweep of the Mariners here. Back in April, they took two games at home, 6-3 and 1-0. Seattle has fallen way off since then and is now 21 games below .500 after losing at home to San Diego last night, 9-4. It doesn't seem like the Mariners will be all too an inspiring choice looking forward, but tonight we like their chances of at least keeping San Diego's offense in check. The Padres may have scored nine runs last night and 10 the game before that (still lost to LA), but such production at the plate is irregular for them. Kikuchi has allowed no more than three runs in five of his last seven starts. San Diego's Lucchesi has done the same in four of his last six starts. So we're looking for this to be a low-scoring affair.  The Under is 7-2-1 the L10 times San Diego has been off a win. The Under is 7-3-1 in the Mariners last 11 games vs. a lefty starter including 4-0-1 at home. Play UNDER San Diego-Seattle

AAA

This is an 8* play on ST. LOUIS +1.5

Needless to say, this series has gone a lot differently for the Cardinals than the one where they hosted the Dodgers back in April. We can't say we're surprised by that. After all, we did win with the Dodgers on Monday. Tuesday's game was another win for LA, this time 3-1, as they improved to 76-40 overall and 45-15 at home. When these clubs met back in April, the series was in St. Louis and the Cards won all four games. Now they are just trying to avoid getting swept. Taking them +1.5 on the run line today seems like a good call to us. The Dodgers are great, but they've got a weak starter going this afternoon in Dustin May, who has made just one prior start (last week) and it didn't go too well with the team losing 5-2 to San Diego. Jack Flaherty threw seven shutout innings of one-hit ball his last start as he continues to be lights out for the Cardinals. Flaherty's last five starts have seen him give up a total of just four runs in 31 1/3 innings on only 15 hits. He hasn't allowed more than two runs in any of the five starts and four of them have seen him allow 0 or 1. So getting an extra run and a half here seems like a nice deal. Play ST. LOUIS +1.5 (RUN LINE)

AAA

This is an 8* play on the CUBS

After coming through for us on Monday, the Cubs failed to do so on Tuesday, losing 11-4 to the A's. A poor performance prompted Cubs starter Jon Lester to refer to himself as the "weak link" of the rotation, but fortunately for today we've got Jose Quintana, whose last six starts have all ended up as Cubs victories. This has been discussed each of the last two days, but the Cubs are a much better team here at Wrigley than they are on the road. Their home record is 40-19. Only two teams (Houston, LA Dodgers) have better home marks. Oakland is stuck with Homer Bailey for this rubber match and that's not a good sign. Bailey has a 6.97 ERA in four starts since coming over from KC and his performances on the road have been consistently bad all year. In 10 road starts, he has a 6.44 ERA and 1.615 WHIP. Quintana allowed just two runs in six innings his last time out and we just can't see the Cubs dropping two in a row at home. They are 31-17 in day games this year. Play on CHICAGO

AAA

This is an 8* play on MINNESOTA

This battle of division leaders has seen a split of the first two games with Minnesota winning 5-3 Monday and Atlanta returning the favor last night, 12-7. For the host Twins, Tuesday was just the second loss in their last nine games. They've been the more dominant team (compared to Atlanta) this year as they've outscored their opponents by a much wider margin (more than double the Braves' run differential). It's been led by an offense that will very likely break the single season record for home runs hit (set just last year!) - by the end of this month. Atlanta's Max Fried has somehow managed to go 7-1 on the road this year (9-2 TSR) in spite of a 4.53 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in those 11 starts. The lineup he'll be facing today is much tougher than virtually all he sees in the National League. We recognize that Twins starter Perez hasn't exactly been "sharp" of late, but trust us when we say this is a good spot to back the home team. Minnesota is 36-15 off a loss and 26-17 in day games. Play on MINNESOTA

AAA

This is a 10* play on the CUBS

We played the Cubs yesterday and that worked out well as they held off the A's for a 6-5 win. Oakland did score three runs in the top of the eighth to make the game more interesting than it had any right to be, but the bottom line is that for the Cubs it was a fourth straight victory, all coming here in Wrigley. As talked about in yesterday's analysis, the Cubs are a vastly better team at home where their record is now 40-18 on the year. Only the Dodgers and Astros have better home records. Now its Jon Lester toeing the rubber on Tuesday and he's got a 9-2 TSR at home to go with a 2.95 ERA. Oakland's lineup isn't as strong as it usually is because of the loss of the DH. The Cubs don't give up many runs to begin with at home (just 3.7 per game) so look for the A's to struggle to score tonight. Brett Anderson is the starter for Oakland and has a 5.60 ERA his last three turns in the rotation. The Cubs have won 12 of the last 14 home games and should continue surging. Play on CHICAGO

AAA

This is an 8* play on LA +1.5

The Angels tasted defeat at the hands of the Reds last night in Cincinnati, losing the opener 7-4. If you look up the definition of "mediocrity" in the dictionary, there might very well be a picture of the Angels logo next to it as this team perennially hovers around the .500 mark. They've now lost five in a row coming into Tuesday. While not the worst stretch of the season, one more loss and it will match it (they lost six in a row back in April). We like them getting 1.5 runs tonight at Great American Ballpark as the Reds have struggled to put together win streaks this year in spite of being a pretty underrated team. They are only 22-31 off a win. Part of the problem is they don't score a ton of runs. Only eight teams have scored fewer. The Angels rotation may not be in good shape overall, but Jose Suarez is likely to pitch better than you might think tonight. For Cincy, DeSclafani still has pretty mediocre numbers, including a 2-6 team start record at home. Play LOS ANGELES +1.5

AAA

This is a 10* play on the OVER

The two coldest teams in the WNBA meet Tuesday night in Atlanta as the Dream host the Lynx. The hosts have lost seven in a row to fall to 5-17 on the year, which is the worst record in the league. Minnesota isn't accustomed to being this bad, but has lost four in a row. They're favored to win this game, but the better bet is to play this one Over as Atlanta is having major problems stopping other teams from scoring while Minnesota hasn't been much better in that department. The Lynx have allowed an average of 83.5 points/game during their losing streak and just gave up more than that in a road loss to a bad Indiana team on the road over the weekend. Atlanta allowed 87 points in its last game. Minnesota turns the ball over more times per game than any other team in the league, so that should help Atlanta's scoring. The last time these teams played, it was the lowest scoring game of the season as Atlanta won 60-53. The rematch will be much different. Play OVER Minnesota-Atlanta

AAA

This is an 8* play on the LA DODGERS

The Dodgers pulled one out for us on Sunday, walking off against the Padres in an 11-10 win. Now they face St. Louis, who did not have a good weekend. The Cardinals dropped both of their games in Oakland to fall out of first place in the National League Central. The likelihood of them turning things around when playing the best team in baseball, on the road, seems pretty minute. The Dodgers are 43-15 at home this year. As was the case yesterday, this would appear to be a very cheap price, one that you don't often see. The reason for that is Tony Gonsolin is taking Hyun-Jin Ryu's spot in the rotation as the latter is on the disabled list. Gonsolin should do just fine though. Over its past seven games, St. Louis has scored more than three runs only one time. Starter Michael Wacha has a 6.75 ERA in four lifetime starts vs. LA and has been in and out of the rotation this year due to general ineffectiveness. Play on LOS ANGELES

AAA

This is a 10* play on the CUBS

The Cubs host Oakland tonight and the game will be on ESPN. It was a huge sweep over the weekend for the Cubs as they took all three games from Milwaukee to re-establish themselves as the team to beat in the NL Central. While that was going on, the A's did the Cubs a favor by beating St. Louis twice. Unfortunately for the A's, we think that they're reward will be little more than a "thank you" here at Wrigley Field. A real advantage for the Cubs tonight is they'll have Kyle Hendricks pitching. Not only does he sport a 1.89 ERA/0.88 WHIP in nine home starts, he's got a 0.95 ERA/0.90 WHIP his last three overall. The last two two starts, which came at Milwaukee and St. Louis, saw Hendricks not allow a single run for 12 innings. Oakland's Chris Bassitt threw six scoreless innings himself in his last start, but the difference is that his performance was atypical. Bassitt is also winless in seven interleague starts. The Cubs are really strong at home. They've won 11 of the last 13 games at Wrigley to move to 39-18 here for the year. Play on CHICAGO

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

What a difference a week makes. At this time last week, Boston was going for a four-game sweep of the Yankees at Fenway Park. They failed, losing the Sunday nighter by a score of 9-6. They haven't won since with the losing streak now at seven games and it's the Yankees going into this week's Sunday nighter with a chance to sweep. Making this seven-game skid even more painful is the fact all those losses came against either the Yankees or the Rays, the two other contending teams in their own division. One bit of positive news for the Red Sox is that David Price is returning from the paternity list to pitch tonight. While his recent numbers aren't great, Price did hold the Yankees to just two runs in a win back in June, his lone start against them this year. The Yankees have Happ on the mound and he has a 3.18 ERA in two starts vs. Boston in 2019. He too is coming off the paternity list (congrats to both pitchers!) Happ held Arizona to three runs in six innings his last start. We project this to be a low-scoring affair. Play UNDER Boston-Yankees

AAA

This is an 8* on the DODGERS

This is a shockingly low price on the Dodgers at home against a team like the Padres. Yes, San Diego did win here on Friday and actually took three of four in their previous visit to Chavez Ravine. But the Dodgers remain the class of the National League right now with a +171 run differential and 73-40 record. An easy 4-1 win for the home team last night only confirmed what we already knew about these teams - the Dodgers are simply much better. They are 42-15 at home this year. We suppose some are willing to give San Diego a fighting chance here due to Chris Paddack being on the mound. But while his numbers are impressive, Paddack still has a 5-5 team start record on the road and he gave up six runs in a loss here in LA back in May. Maeda will go for the Dodgers and he has a 2.57 ERA and 0.86 WHIP at home. The Dodgers are 81-40 their last 121 days games, which includes a 20-8 record this season. Play on LOS ANGELES

AAA

This is an 8* play on the METS

The Mets have won 7 of their last 8 games, the lone loss coming on Friday here in Pittsburgh. But they quickly responded with a 7-5 win last night and are now within two games of .500. That may not sound like much, but the Mets are just four back of the Wild Card. Pittsburgh has long ceased being a contender. They've lost 17 of 21 games since the All Star Break and are in last place in the NL Central. The Mets recent winning ways allowed them to keep Noah Syndergaard for the stretch run and that's definitely a good thing considering his 1.91 ERA and 36 strikeouts in the second half of the season. He's pitched at least seven innings in each of his last four starts and believe it or not, that's a career first. In three career starts vs. Pittsburgh, Syndergaard has a 1.77 ERA. The Pirates can only offer up Joe Musgrove as resistance. While Musgrove has been better of late, he still has a 4.52 ERA at home and struggled in his most recent start here, giving up six runs. Play on the METS

AAA

This is an 8* on PHILADELPHIA

After losing a "marathon game" (went 15 innings) Friday night, the Phillies bounced back to beat the White Sox 3-2 last night. Truthfully, this should have been a much easier series for Philly as Chicago came in having won only four games since the All Star Break. Also, only two teams (Miami and Detroit) have scored fewer runs than the White Sox' 439 this season and they are without the DH here at Citizens Bank Park. Over their last seven games, the Sox are scoring an average of 2.3 runs/game and batting .203. So they would seem to be a "safe" opponent for Drew Smyly to continue his resurgence. Since coming over to Philadelphia, Smyly has been a much better pitcher with a 0.69 ERA in two starts as he's allowed one run in 13 innings. Similarly, Reynaldo Lopez has pitched much better of late for Chicago. But he's got a far lousier team backing him up. The White Sox are 16-31 in day games this year. The Phillies are 24-13. Play on PHILADELPHIA

AAA

This is an 8* play on OAKLAND

While Interleague Play may seemingly lack the importance of a division game, don't tell that to either St. Louis or Oakland, both of whom need a big weekend. This is just a two-game series as the teams had Friday off. St. Louis has a 1/2 game lead in the NL Central after they won for us Thursday, against the Cubs. Oakland is 8.5 games back of Houston in the AL West, but still very viable in the Wild Card race where they trail Tampa Bay by a 1/2 game for the second spot. We side with the A's on Saturday as they send Michael Fiers to the mound. Fiers has been very good at home this year, owning a 1.95 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 11 starts, eight of which have resulted in Oakland victories. As we discussed in the Chicago-St. Louis series, the Cardinals are not nearly as good on the road and that's reflected in a lot of the numbers from their starting pitchers. Saturday's starter Dakota Hudson has a 1.56 WHIP in 11 road games and hasn't exactly pitched well of late. He gave up three home runs in his last start, which lasted only four innings and that was at home. St. Louis lost that game 6-2, part of a 7-9 record vs. American League teams this season. Also interesting is that the Cards are just 1-3 off a shutout win this year and 9-15 in this situation the last three years. They blanked the Cubs Thursday, 8-0. Play on OAKLAND

AAA

This is a 10* play on the UNDER

We had the Braves as they won a rain-shortened affair Thursday, 4-1. But last night saw the Reds turn the table with a 5-2 win. Cincy is by far and away the top Under team this season with a 65-39-4 record in all games. A lot of that has to do with the fact their pitching staff has allowed the fifth fewest number runs per game. That pitching staff just got a lot stronger too with the addition of Trevor Bauer at the trade deadline. Bauer is set to make his Reds debut Saturday night and should excel here in the National League with the weaker lineups where the majority of opposing hitters aren't as familiar with him. Unfortunately for Bauer and the Reds, they'll be up against Dallas Keuchel tonight. Keuchel was the Braves' big mid-season acquisition as he's treated the Atlanta faithful to a 2.66 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in three home starts so far. He struck out 12 in his last start here at SunTrust Park. The first two games of this series were both low-scoring and this is the strongest starting pitching battle of the series. So this game follows suit. Play UNDER Cincinnati-Atlanta

AAA

This is a 10* play on the OVER

The first of three meetings this year between rivals Edmonton and Calgary goes down Saturday with both teams at 4-2. Whomever wins this game will be tied with Winnipeg for first place in the Western Division as all of a sudden the Blue Bombers have dropped two in a row. While we have no opinion on the side of this game, we do think the total is too low. While these are two of the better defensive teams in the league and each side has seen its last four games go Under, you normally don't see totals this low in the CFL. At least not this year where scoring continues to rise. Edmonton has scored 32 or more points in half of their games and only twice have they been held to below 26 points. Even though they won last week in Ottawa, Calgary didn't score a touchdown in a 17-16 win. But don't be fooled by that as they moved the ball at will, racking up a season-high 474 total yards. Both teams faced weak offenses last week and will be challenged more here. Look for this game to go Over the total. Play OVER Edmonton-Calgary 

AAA

This is a 7* play on PHILADELPHIA

The Phillies finished off the Giants Thursday afternoon, winning 10-2, and that made it a winning series for them. This weekend, they'll get an even easier opponent. The White Sox come into town and they are in really bad shape right now as they've won only four games since the All Star Break. They were just swept by the Mets, at home, and shutout in yesterday's series finale. Jason Vargas will make his Phillies debut tonight. He'd been pretty reliable for the Mets in posting a 3.27 ERA in 16 starts, going at least six innings in 10 of them, which makes you wonder why the Mets would ship him to a division rival for so little in return. Regardless, Vargas should shut down a White Sox lineup that doesn't score much (28th in MLB in runs) and will of course be without the DH. Ivan Nova gets the start for Chicago tonight and while he's coming off two straight strong outings, he still has a 5.23 ERA. The White Sox are 16-38 their last 54 interleague contests while the Phillies are 7-3 in their 10 this season. Play on PHILADELPHIA

AAA

This is an 8* play on MILWAUKEE +1.5

The Cubs have lost ground in the NL Central by dropping six of nine on the just completed road trip, which had them make stops in both Milwaukee and St. Louis. They now trail the Cardinals by a game in the race for first place and are just a game up on the Brewers entering this weekend's all-important rematch. The series starts with a day game Friday and we like Milwaukee getting the +1.5 here as Chicago has really struggled to score runs of late, averaging only 3.3 the last seven games while batting .187. Zach Davies did not fare well against them this past Sunday, but we like his chances this afternoon given those Cubs struggles at the plate. Davies has had great stretches this year, like when he went 5-0 with a 1.54 ERA through his first nine starts and when he allowed just one run in his first three starts of July. Chicago's Jose Quintana was hardly sharp when he beat Davies Sunday and he's actually posted a 5.68 ERA his previous seven starts. The Brewers won't do any worse than a one-run loss today. Play MILWAUKEE +1.5

AAA

This is an 8* play on HAMILTON

Hamilton picked up a huge win last week, beating Winnipeg 23-15. That was a 10* winner for us on the Ti-Cats and the first straight up loss of the year for the Blue Bombers. But it came with a cost as QB Masoli was injured and now out. Backup Dane Evans may not have looked all that great in relief last week, but he was facing an undefeated team with little prep. The Ti-Cats defense was able to slow down the Bombers, which is no small feat, and thus can carry the team moving forward. Evans should also play better with a week of prep. The Roughriders are coming off back to back wins over a bad British Columbia team and are playing on only five days rest here. Given how good Hamilton has looked this year, we think they absolutely should still be looked as the favorite going into this one, even on the road. The last time Saskatchewan played on a short week like this was Week 4 vs. Calgary and they lost 37-10, at home. The QB situation has "over-influenced" this line in our opinion as the Ti-Cats are 5-1 and have the best point differential in the league so far. Grab the points! Play on HAMILTON

AAA

This is an 8* play on ATLANTA

As per usual, the NFL season kicks off in Canton with the Hall of Fame Game. This year's participants are Denver and Atlanta, two teams coming off losing seasons and hoping for better things in 2019. The Broncos made several major changes in the offseason with Vic Fangio replacing Vance Joseph as head coach and QB Joe Flacco being signed in free agency. The Falcons largely bring back the same group as last season. It's a pretty talented roster, one that should have better results this season. Being that the Falcons are 0-8 in the preseason the last two years, we expect them to be a little more motivated than the Broncos Thursday night. Starters won't see the field much, if at all, for either team. But Denver is still trying to figure things out under a new regime. With the line move, we're getting a good value on Atlanta, who top to bottom has a better roster. Denver did not tear it up in the preseason last either, going 0-4 ATS. Play on ATLANTA

AAA

This is an 8* play on ATLANTA

The Braves and Reds are opening up a four-game series in Atlanta here and we give the home team a considerable edge in tonight's opener. While the Reds are actually pretty underrated, they struggle to win games on the road (21-30 WL record). They come off a successful 4-2 homestand, but were blown out in both losses and thus actually outscored in the six games. Atlanta is a very legitimate first place team over in the NL East, a position they have now occupied for some time now. By winning the last two days in Washington, they've opened up a 6.5-game lead in the division. Cincy really doesn't have much to play for the rest of the way. Even though the Wild Card race is pretty wide open, it's highly unlikely they can pull into real contention. Anthony DeSclafani has a 4.97 ERA on the road and gets the start for the Reds tonight. The Braves are one of the higher scoring teams in the National League. Max Fried will start for them and while he's been "up and down" of late, he's still managed an 11-4 record in his 20 starts this year (14-6 TSR). The Braves have won 20 of their last 28 games against sub-.500 teams. Play on ATLANTA

AAA

This is a 10* play on ST. LOUIS

The Cubs' 2-0 win last night snapped a 10-game win streak by the home team in this NL Central rivalry. While 6-0 against the Cardinals at Wrigley Field this season, they're still just 1-4 against them at Busch Stadium. You can expect things to revert back to the trend favoring the home team tonight as the Cards go with Jack Flaherty, who always tends to pitch much better when at home. He's got a 0.91 WHIP in 11 home starts, compared to 1.57 on the road. For those who may not follow WHIP, that's a substantial difference. Also, Flaherty has been really sharp of late, even with no wins to show for it. His last four starts, two coming at home and two on the road, have seen him allow only four runs and 14 hits. While he's not factored into any of the decisions, the Cardinals have won Flaherty's last two starts. He'll be opposed by Jon Lester, admittedly a reliable option for the Cubs. In his last start, Lester shut the Brewers out for seven innings. But the road remains a concern for Lester and the Cubs. Not just because of their previous struggles here in St. Louis. But the team's overall record away from home this year is only 21-32 and that includes 3-6 in Lester starts. Look for Flaherty to get that elusive win! Play on ST. LOUIS

AAA

This is a 10* on TORONTO

Being the league's only winless team, 0-6 Toronto had to make a move. They did just that by bringing back QB Zach Collaros in a trade that was announced Wednesday afternoon. Collaros began his career with the Argonauts before stints with both Hamilton and Saskatchewan. Unfortunately, his time spent in Regina was limited to less than a game as Collaros got injured in the Roughriders' Week 1 game against Hamilton and he's been on the injured list ever since. That allowed for the emergence of Cody Fajardo for the Riders and thus Collaros became expendable. The Argos will take anything at this point, but most of all a win. They are getting two touchdowns at home this week against Winnipeg, who just lost for the first time this year, last week to the Ti-Cats. Kind of a letdown spot for the Bombers, who are dealing with injuries. We definitely wouldn't want to lay the points in this one and in fact will take 'em as the Double Blue were "only" as 16-point dog when they visited Manitoba less than two weeks ago. Play on TORONTO

AAA

This is an 8* play on MINNESOTA

The Twins are going for a 3-game sweep today, a result that can't be deemed entirely unexpected. We were on them Tuesday, a 2-1 win here in Miami, and then the AL Central leaders made it look even easier yesterday with a 7-4 victory. Today's game sets up as perhaps the easiest of the three. The Twins do face Jordan Yamamoto, but he's been on a downward trajectory of late and was absolutely rocked his last time out, giving up six runs in four innings. Michael Pineda will oppose Yamamoto and he's looked especially good of late. The righty has allowed no more than three runs in 13 of his previous 14 starts. He will face a lineup that has produced the fewest runs scored by any team from the National League. Meanwhile Yamamoto has to deal with a lineup that not only leads MLB in home runs, but also scores - on average - 6.1 runs/game on the road. A total mismatch in every way here. Play on MINNESOTA

AAA

This is an 8* play on CLEVELAND +1.5 (run line)

The Indians made headlines yesterday by trading Trevor Bauer to the Reds, which may seem strange for a team in playoff position, but Bauer was highly unlikely to stick around Cleveland anyway and truthfully hadn't been as effective as he was in 2018. They got multiple players in return, one of them being Yasiel Puig, who was ironically involved in that wild Pirates-Reds brawl yesterday when news of the trade broke. All this was far more exciting than the performance the Indians put forth on the diamond last night as they lost 2-0 to Houston. The Astros represent a lot "stiffer" competition than what Cleveland has generally seen recently, but given that the Indians have only lost six times all month, backing them at home +1.5 (run line) seems to be a wise decision. Zach Plesac will now get the start, taking Adam Plutko's spot, and that's just fine by us. Plesac has a 1.12 ERA and 0.94 WHIP his last three times out. Houston will go with Urquidy, who has looked good his last two outings after struggling some in the first two. The Indians are a perfect 7-0 at home this season in games where the total is 10 or 10.5. We think they'll do no worse than a one-run loss here and probably win. Solid value! Play CLEVELAND +1.5 (Run Line)

AAA

This is a 10* play OVER Arizona-Yankees

Arizona is a team that scores more on the road than they do at home. The increase is pretty drastic. They go from 4.5 runs/game at Chase Field to 5.7 on the road. This series finds them playing with the designated hitter as they're matched up with the Yankees, who obviously have little difficulty scoring themselves. The Yanks are #2 overall in runs/game at 5.8. Now last night's game ended up as a 4-2 final. But this one figures to be a lot more high scoring. Interestingly enough, New York is now 0-3 vs. Arizona this year following last night's loss. Their pitching staff has been giving up a lot of runs lately (83 in the L9 games) and no starting effort was worse than the last time Masahiro Tanaka hit the mound as he allowed 12 runs in just 3 1/3 innings. Tanaka now has a 9.55 ERA his last four starts and a 7.02 ERA his last nine. Not good. Zack Greinke will be on the mound for the Dbax and while we usually equate him with the best pitchers in the league, he does have a 5.16 ERA in 14 career appearances vs. New York. This is a much stronger lineup than Greinke is used to seeing over in the National League. The Yankees are 6-0 to the Over the last six times they've been off a loss. Play OVER Arizona-Yankees.

AAA

This is a 10* play on the METS

The Mets have been terribly disappointing in 2019, but come into this series on a four-game win streak. They just swept the Pirates and now get to face another bad team, albeit on the road, in the form of the White Sox. Chicago has been terrible since the All Star Break, losing 13 of its 17 games and getting outscored by 42 runs in the process. They were beaten 11-1 by the Twins on Sunday and are 18-36 the last three seasons after giving up 10 or more runs the previous game. Assuming Noah Syndergaard isn't traded today, the Mets are in a good position here. Syndergaard has gone seven innings in each of his last three starts and will be facing a lineup that often struggles to put runs on the road. For the year, Chicago is 28th in MLB in runs scored. Their starter for Tuesday is Reynaldo Lopez, who has actually looked good since the All Star Break, but he also had a lousy 1st half. So expect him to revert back to his "old ways" Just to show how bad Lopez was in the first half, he still has a 5.52 ERA even after allowing only four earned runs in his last 21 innings pitched. The White Sox are just 16-38 their last 54 interleague games. Play on the METS

AAA

This is an 8* play on MINNESOTA

Minnesota has played better than anyone could have imagined this year. They are 64-41 with a run differential of +125. They can look forward to taking advantage of the bevy of remaining games against the three bad teams from their division (Chicago, KC, Detroit), but the "problem" is that Cleveland gets to face all those teams a bunch too. The Indians are now only two games back of the Twins in the division, so this is going to be a race the rest of the way. Basically, what we're saying here is this series against a bad Miami team is one in which the Twins need not lose any games/ground. We like them to easily take Tuesday's game as the Marlins had to play yesterday while the Twins had Monday off. The better team being in the better spot is always a nice luxury to have. Miami has the worst record over in the National League. Jake Odorizzi is off a rough start for Minnesota, but that was against the Yankees and he should bounce back tonight against what is the 2nd lowest scoring team in MLB. That last start was only the fourth time this year where Odorizzi allowed more than three runs. Miami's Zac Gallen does enter Tuesday with impressive numbers, but he has yet to face a lineup like the Twins, who come in averaging 6.1 runs/game on the road. Minnesota has taken five of its previous six series openers. Play on MINNESOTA

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

What looked to be a favorable homestand for the Angels did not get off to a good start. They had Baltimore for four games over the weekend, but lost the first three. They did win 5-4 Sunday (in walkoff fashion), but that series was a golden opportunity down the drain. Fortunately, they'll now  welcome in the Tigers, who might be even worse that the Orioles, if you can believe it. Detroit has lost six in a row and 14 of 16 games since the All Star Break. They have scored the least number of runs in all of baseball this year. So trust us when we say that the Angels deserve to be big favorites in this spot, especially going against Jordan Zimmerman, who has not won in almost a full calendar year. Detroit won't score much Monday as Angels starter Jaime Barria has given up all of four runs in his last three starts (15 IP). The key is going to be how much will the Angels score. We're willing to bank it won't be too large of a number as the Under is 17-8 the last 25 meetings between these two teams. Play UNDER Detroit-Los Angeles

AAA

This is a 10* play on LOS ANGELES

Like a lot of teams, the Rockies have had their fair share of problems beating the Dodgers this year. Unlike most teams, they face the disadvantage of being in the same division as the Dodgers. It's a 2-8 head to head record vs. LA in 2019 and that's with a four-game split the last time the Dodgers came here to Coors Field. That was last month and since then, things have not gone well for Colorado. They're just 5-17 in July after losing Sunday in Cincinnati. The Dodgers just missed a chance to sweep the Nationals in D.C. on Sunday, but should bounce back here as they've been very strong off a loss all year. Kenta Maeda will get the start Monday for LA. While far from the best starter on the team, Maeda has allowed more than three earned runs only one time since May 10th. That's a stretch of 13 starts and the only exception came at an American League stadium. Pitching at Coors Field isn't easy, but starting for Colorado is Jon Gray, who allowed six runs his last start here. Play on LOS ANGELES

AAA

This is a 10* play on the UNDER

Apparently it wasn't just London that brings out the scoring between the Yankees and Red Sox. This series has seen Boston explode for 38 runs so far as they've now scored 59 in the last five games vs. New York. All five games have easily gone Over as yesterday's contest - which had 14 total runs scored - was actually the LOWEST scoring. We'll call for today's to be even lower scoring though as Yankee pitching HAS to improve and the Red Sox have Chris Sale on the mound. Domingo German starts for NY and he'll be looking to bounce back from his worst start of 2019. Before that, it had been three straight quality starts for him. Sale is off two straight quality starts as he continues to get back on track after a disappointing 1st half. We expect the "World" to be on the Over tonight as this is the lowest posted total for any of the four games in this series. But there's value on the Under with Sale pitching as he should keep the Yankees in check and you should look for German to pitch better than expected as well as the Under is 5-1 his last six starts. Play UNDER New York-Boston

AAA

This is an 8* play on CINCINNATI

The Reds are somewhat of an underrated team. Despite being eight games below .500, they've outscored their opposition this season by allowing the fourth fewest runs in all of baseball. We don't see them making a run at a pennant in 2019, but keep an eye out for them next season. Also keep an eye on them Sunday as they look to win this series with the Rockies. Friday night didn't go well for the home team (12-2 loss), but they bounced back to win 3-1 on Saturday. Colorado is in a slump right now as they've lost 10 of their last 13 games. But the real key here is that Alex Wood is making his first start for Cincinnati. Wood came over from the Dodgers in the Puig trade over the winter. Because of injuries, he's yet to pitch a big league game this season. But Wood has looked good in various rehab assignments and is only two years removed from being an All Star. The Rockies lineup he'll be facing struggles to score on the road (4.3 runs/game). Rockies starter Lambert is winless over his last six starts as is the team. There have been only two times (out of eight) that Lambert has made it a full six innings. Play on CINCINNATI

AAA

This is a 10* play on PHILADELPHIA

The Phillies lost 15-7 to the Braves last night, leaving them 7.5 (games) back in the National League East race and 1 game back of the Wild Card teams (Nationals, Cubs). So a win Sunday would not only allow them to avoid being swept by the first place Braves, it would also go a long way in this crowded NL playoff race. Starting for Philly on Sunday is Aaron Nola, who we've seen go 8-2 in 22 starts and seemingly get better as the season moves along. His last seven starts have produced a 1.51 ERA and 0.92 WHIP with Nola allowed 1 or 0 runs in six of those seven outings. He's also a more dominant pitcher at home. Atlanta goes with Gausman, who has struggled this year with a 6.35 ERA and 1.694 WHIP on the road. Gausman did pitch well in his last start, but that came at home. The Phillies are a solid 22-13 in day games and they're also 19-8 as a home favorite of -125 to -175. Play on PHILADELPHIA

AAA

This is an 8* play on OAKLAND

Oakland has really taken on it on the chin in the first two games of this series, losing 11-3 and 5-2. After winning their first five games post-All Star Break, things have really grinded to a halt for the A's as they're now just 3-6 the last nine games, which obviously hurts in a hotly contested Wild Card race. It's not like Texas had been playing well coming into this series either. They'd dropped 9 of 10, which basically killed their own faint Wild Card hopes. Despite losing the first two games, the A's remain a big favorite for Saturday in a battle of two struggling starting pitchers. Adrian Sampson has been used both as a reliever and as a starter by the Rangers and truth be told neither role has suited him very well. He's gone 0-3 in his last six appearances with a 9.84 ERA. His last two starts have resulted in him giving up 13 runs and 19 hits in 8 2/3 innings. Oakland goes with Homer Bailey, who is making his third start since coming over from Kansas City. The less said about the last one the better, but he did deliver a quality start in his home debut vs. Seattle on 7.17. The A's have won 18 of the last 22 times they've been a home favorite of -175 or more and we think they're the play here. Play on OAKLAND

AAA

This is a 10* play on the UNDER

These Western Division rivals just met last week with Saskatchewan beating British Columbia 30-23. The rematch, set to take place in BC, won't be as high scoring. The Rough Riders got to 30 points in spite of pretty pedestrian yardage. This time they won't have the luxury of coming off a bye. The week before the bye saw them get held to 10 points and 234 yards. As for the Lions, they've topped 25 points in a game only one time this season. In two home games, they've scored a TOTAL of only 29 points. They had just 179 total yards in an ugly home loss to Edmonton two weeks ago. In spite of last week, the Under is still 41-19-1 the previous 61 meetings between these long time foes. It's also 7-3-1 in the Lions last 11 home games. Last week's total was bet down several points. This week's has not been (yet) ... Play UNDER Saskatchewan-British Columbia

AAA

This is an 8* play on SEATTLE

Seattle may have finally found an opponent to its liking as Detroit is as bad as any team in the league right now. The Mariners have taken the first two games of this series between last place teams, winning 10-2 Thursday and 3-2 Friday. They've won four of five overall. As for the Tigers, it has been downright ugly of late with a 3-17 record in July and that's after winning only five games in June. The AL West has given the Tigers all sorts of trouble in 2019 as their record vs. that division is now 1-13. Seattle has its ace on the mound Saturday, Marco Gonzales, who is 6-2 in his last eight starts. He's allowed three runs or less in seven of those eight outings. He has a 3.09 ERA in two previous starts vs. Detroit, both of them coming in 2018. The Tigers have scored the fewest runs in all of MLB, so expecting a quality start out of Gonzales today seems more than reasonable. Lefty Tyler Alexander goes for Detroit as this will be only his third start. It's highly unlikely that he'll be able to pitch well enough to give his team a chance to win. Play on SEATTLE

AAA

This is a 10* play on BOSTON

The Red Sox have exploded in this series, scoring 29 runs against Yankees pitching in winning the first two games. After a 19-3 annihilation took place on Thursday (we had the Over in that one!), it was a 10-5 win for the home team at Fenway Park last night. That was thanks to three Mookie Betts home runs, all coming off Yankees starter James Paxton. Boston had been just 1-6 vs. New York this season (before this series), but it's important to note that none of those games were played here in Fenway. For Saturday afternoon's nationally televised contest, we're obviously siding with Boston as they turn to Eduardo Rodriguez. No pitcher on the staff has been more successful than Rodriguez as he comes in with a 16-5 team start record, including 8-1 at home, and and he's a perfect 3-0 his last three starts overall with a 1.33 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. Going back further, Rodriguez has allowed 2 ER or less in five straight starts. CC Sabathia has struggled in July (6.35 ERA) and failed to get past the 4th inning in his last start. The fact he allowed four home runs is a bad sign as well. This feels like it's Boston's time to move up the standings. Back them without hesitation today. Play on BOSTON

AAA

This is an 8* play on MINNESOTA

As expected, Minnesota had little difficulty beating the White Sox on Thursday. It was a 10-3 win in the series opener and the Twins will need more of those if they are too hold off hard-charging Cleveland (two games back) in the American League Central race. Chicago is 16 games back and really should be even further behind given they've now been outscored by more than 100 runs in 100 games played. They had their best pitcher on the mound last night (Lucas Giolito) and still lost big, so just imagine what might happen here. It's now Dylan Cease's turn to face a Twins team that is scoring 6.1 runs/game on the road. Cease has a 6.19 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in three starts with the team losing the last two. Michael Pineda goes for the Twins and the number of times he's allowed more than three runs in a start is "one" since May 5th! The Twins are 12-4 as a road favorite of -125 to -175 this season. They're underpriced. Play on MINNESOTA

AAA

This is an 8* play on ARIZONA

This should be a successful series for Arizona, who have yet to face last place Miami this season.  The Diamondbacks need wins right now as they look to chase down the Wild Card teams in the National League. They've played better than you think; a +64 run differential actually ranks third best in the whole NL! As for the Marlins, they easily have the worst record (38-62) and run differential (-100) in the Senior Circuit. Making matters even harder for them on Friday is Arizona will have Zack Greinke on the mound. Greinke has dominated Miami in 12 career appearances, going 7-0 with a 3.19 ERA. He was 2-0 with a 0.66 ERA in two starts against them last season. The Marlins have scored the fewest runs in the NL this year and Sandy Alcantara is unlikely to outduel Greinke considering his ERA (6.48) and WHIP (1.74) from his last three outings. Arizona took 6 of 7 from Miami last year and a sweep this weekend would not surprise us. At the very least, they're winning this game. Play on ARIZONA

AAA

This is a 10* play on TAMPA BAY

Tampa Bay's season took a bit of a dire turn yesterday when it was announced reigning Cy Young Blake Snell has to have elbow surgery, which will keep him on the shelf until September. Whether or not the Rays stay viable in the Wild Card race remains to be seen. But the ill-effects of Snell absence likely won't be felt in this weekend's series up in Toronto where they'll encounter a bad Blue Jays team playing out the string. Tampa Bay swept Toronto back in May and haven't gotten to face them since. The Jays are undeniably in worse shape now than they were two months ago as they just don't score much. Facing a staff that's allowed the fewest # of runs in MLB is a really bad matchup for them, even with the Rays using an opener (Diego Castillo) Friday. The Rays won 9 of the 11 times Castillo opened in 2018 (this is his 1st time doing so in '19).. Toronto is forced to turn to Jacob Waguespack, who has made just two starts so far and he's allowed seven runs in 10 innings. Toronto is 19-32 at home. Tampa Bay is 30-21 on the road. The Jays have dropped 31 of the last 43 games vs. .500 or better foes. Play on TAMPA BAY

AAA

This is an 8* play on the DODGERS

You can do a lot worse than backing Hyun-Jin Ryu this year. The National League's starter in the Midsummer Classic (All Star Game) has passed Clayton Kershaw to become the Dodgers ace this year with an 11-2 record in 19 starts and a 1.76 ERA/0.93 WHIP (both are the best in the NL). Washington knows all too well about what kind of pitcher Ryu is. They couldn't get a hit off him for almost eight innings in a 6-0 loss back on May 12. That win improved Ryu's lifetime numbers vs. the Nationals to 1.35 (ERA) and 0.71 (WHIP). Furthermore, the Dodgers have won each of Ryu's last three starts. Washington starter Sanchez has an 8-1 TSR his last nine starts, but the numbers can't match those of Ryu nor can the Nationals match the Dodgers player for player right now. Washington is 2-8 as a home underdog of +125 to +175 while LA is 23-13 after a loss. Play on LOS ANGELES

AAA

This is a 10* play on HAMILTON

This is an early season showdown between the top team in the West (Winnipeg) and top team from the East (Hamilton). The line has "jumped the fence," meaning Winnipeg is now favored after opening as the slight dog. With the Blue Bombers unbeaten it's understandable that bettors would want to side with them, but this is a road game and the Ti-Cats have been really good in their own right to start the year. They're 4-1 with an explosive offense that has scored no fewer than 29 points each of the last four games. Furthermore, they are coming off a bye here! Thus, it's pretty shocking to see them now getting points. Winnipeg has not started a season 6-0 since 1960 and since the turn of this century, only seven CFL teams have done it. Hamilton has won all three of its home games, doing so by an average of almost 21 points per game. This isn't your average dog. Play on HAMILTON

AAA

This is a 10* play on CLEVELAND

Cleveland has been surging of late, winning 9 of the last 11 games including a 4-0 over Toronto last night. One edge the Indians have over the other Wild Card contenders in the American League is the number of games they'll get to play against the three "bad" teams in the Central Division, those being Kansas City, Chicago and Detroit. The Indians have taken full advantage of those three opponents this season, going a combined 24-13 against them. Starting tonight, the next four games are against the Royals, who they just took two of three from last week. They faced Mike Montgomery in his first start of the year and scored five times off him in only two innings. So all the Cleveland hitters have to be licking their chops here. The Royals have actually played better baseball in the second half as they just took two down in Atlanta. But Montgomery appears to be an albatross and we don't see them figuring out Indians starter Adam Plutko who has a 0.74 WHIP in his previous three starts. KC, who won 2-0 last night, is 4-14 off a shutout win the last three seasons. Play on CLEVELAND

AAA

This is a 10* on the OVER

This is the first time the Yankees and Red Sox have met since that silly series they played in London. It was pretty clear from the first inning of the first game that stadium was "a little different" from your standard MLB park (fence was too short!) and the hitters took full advantage in games that ended with scores of 17-13 and 12-8. The Yankees won both and are now 6-1 against the Red Sox this season. That's why they're in first and the Red Sox are in third place. Though back stateside, we do expect the teams to continue to score in bunches tonight. The Yankees are averaging 6.4 runs/game on the road and just scored 24 times in the last two days alone, at Minnesota. They had 20 hits in Tuesday's game and 15 more last night. They've scored at least 10 runs in three of the last five games. Now they are set to face Rick Porcello, who has an 8.64 ERA and 1.80 WHIP in his last three starts. Boston is also one of the top offensive teams as they average 5.7 runs/game. They'll be going against Masahiro Tanaka, who has struggled on the road (5.40 ERA) where he's won just once. The Over is 22-5-1 in the Yankees last 28 road games vs. a team that has a winning record. Play OVER Yankees-Boston

AAA

This is a 10* play on OTTAWA

This is obviously a very big revenge spot for Calgary. Not only were they upset by the Redblacks in last year's Grey Cup, they also lost to them 32-28 in Week 1 of this season. But this number is inflated. Ottawa is 0-4 ATS since that Week 1 upset, which required a fourth quarter comeback. The last two weeks have been grim with a 17-point loss to Montreal and a 30-point loss to Winnipeg. But Calgary is also just 1-4 ATS this year, the lone cover coming as an underdog. Both teams are dealing with injuries at the QB position. The Stampeders actually struggled to get by winless Toronto last week, so Ottawa definitely has hope here. They were nine-point underdogs when they pulled the upset in Week 1. Getting this many at home seems like a steal by comparison. Play on OTTAWA

AAA

This is an 8* play on PITTSBURGH

The Pirates are seeking to avoid a sweep early this afternoon as they've lost the first three games of this series with the Cardinals. Two of the losses were by one run, so it's not like they haven't been competitive. They did lose 14-8 last night with St. Louis hitting five homers. But this one comes down to the home vs. road splits of Cardinals starter Miles Mikolas. On July 15th, we played the Under with Mikolas starting at home against these same Pirates. He threw a complete game shutout and the Cardinals won 7-0. But we went against him on July 20th at Cincinnati as his numbers simply aren't good on the road. Sure enough, the team lost that game, dropping Mikolas to 1-6 in starts made away from home with a 7.04 ERA and 1.63 WHIP. Joe Musgrove opposed Mikolas in that July 15th start and took the loss, but he was much better here at home last week when he threw six strong innings of two-hit ball. The only run he allowed was unearned. We're willing to bank on Mikolas' road struggles continuing and for Pittsburgh to avoid the sweep. Play on PITTSBURGH 

AAA

This is a 10* play on NY METS

After a 5-2 win yesterday, the Mets go with Syndergaard today and that should result in another easy victory over the floundering Padres. San Diego has fallen into last place in the National League West by virtue of losing 8 of their last 10 games. While Syndergaard may not be having his best year, he is coming off two straight quality starts where he gave up just three runs total and lasted 14 innings. We don't see Lamet for San Diego being able to match him as he's somewhat struggled in three starts since returning from Tommy John surgery. The Padres have lost all three games. Going back to before the surgery, they have a 1-11 record in Lamet starts including 0-6 on the road. This simply does not look like a viable spot for San Diego to turn things around. Play on NY METS

AAA

This is an 8* run line play on SEATTLE +1.5

Take Seattle using the run line here as we don't see them doing any worse than a one-run loss in this series finale with Texas this afternoon. While the Mariners have lost 8 of their last 10, including 7-2 last night to the Rangers, Texas had lost eight in a row before finally breaking through on Tuesday. Rangers starter Minor seems to have really slowed down of late as he's winless his last three starts and just gave up four home runs in his most recent one. All were solo shots, but it was still the second straight start where Minor gave up four runs. The Mariners are going with Leake, who recently tossed his second complete game of the summer. No pitcher in baseball has more complete games this season. Leake will also be motivated today as he's 0-2 vs. Minor this year. But Minor and the Rangers have faded badly over the last month and it's rare that they are favored on the road. That they are favored on the road after such a long stretch of losing seems curious at best. Play SEATTLE +1.5

AAA

This is an 8* play on MILWAUKEE

We've misfired with Milwaukee each of the last two days and now the Brewers find themselves simply trying to avoid a sweep at the hands of the last place Reds. Being that this series is being contested at Miller Park, the predicament that the home team finds itself in is one we couldn't have fathomed. Coming into the series, the Reds record on the road was just 19-29. Milwaukee had been 30-21 at home. It seemed as if the Brewers had the starting pitching edge each of the previous two games and again that certainly appears to be the case. The Reds are going with Sims, who has made only one start in 2019 and it was back in May when he allowed four runs in 7 1/3 innings vs. Pittsburgh. The Brewers have Chacin set to take the mound and while he got rocked in his last start, the three before that all saw him give up two runs or less. One of those three was against Cincinnati as he finished with eight strikeouts in six innings and gave up just two runs. The Reds are 13-29 day games. The Brewers are 24-13. Play on MILWAUKEE

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This is an 8* Play on LAS VEGAS

Revenge spot! Las Vegas just lost up in Seattle 69-66 on Friday. But it should be a different result Tuesday night in Sin City. The Aces have already beaten the Storm once this year at home, holding them to a season-low 56 points. We continue to be astounded at how Seattle has persevered this season in the wake of such heavy attrition. They are down three starters, their head coach is dealing with a cancer diagnosis and the latest hit is the distraction surrounding forward Natasha Howard, who was accused of spousal abuse. Eventually, this will all catch up with them. We'll call for the four game SU and ATS win streak to end here. LV beat Minnesota 79-74 here at home Sunday and should win this one by a larger margin. The three-point loss in Seattle last week is the only loss the Aces have taken in their last seven games. Play on LAS VEGAS

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This is a 10* play on MILWAUKEE

We missed on Milwaukee last night, but will come back again with the Tuesday. The Reds won 6-5, thanks to two Eugenio Suarez home runs, the second being a go-ahead shot in the top of the ninth. That blast negated a grand slam in the bottom of the eighth from Milwaukee's Tyler Saladino. Cincy is still only 20-29 on the road though and came into this series having lost 9 of their last 12 games overall. Tonight's starting pitching matchup is heavily slanted in favor of the Brewers, which is the key here. Zach Davies has a 3-0 team start record his last three starts with a 0.50 ERA and 0.944 WHIP. The Brewers have actually won all of his last four starts with Davies giving up only two earned runs in 23 1/3 innings. As for Cincy's Tanner Roark, he's got a 7.16 ERA and 1.714 WHIP his last three starts. One of those starts was against Milwaukee and he allowed three home runs. Play on MILWAUKEE 

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This is an 8* play on HOUSTON

Houston took the first game of this AL West showdown and did so easily, winning 11-1 Monday. The game was never in doubt as first place Astros scored four runs in the 2nd inning and seven more in the 3rd. Not that they needed it, but they also got seven sharp innings from starter Gerrit Cole. We can't say we're surprised by how the Astros handled the A's last night; after all they were huge moneyline favorites. But we are surprised at how cheap they are on the moneyline tonight. Sure, Wade Miley isn't Cole, but he has a 4-0 TSR his last four starts and a 1.96 ERA/0.94 WHIP at home this year. Moreover, the Astros have won seven of the eight times Miley has started at home. By the way, Houston has now won six straight, all of them against division opponents. Oakland figures to cool off after their own six-game win streak got snapped last Thursday. Since then, they've lost three of five. Starter Michael Fiers has a 5.57 ERA on the road. Play on HOUSTON

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This is a 10* Play on the UNDER

We anticipate this being a low-scoring affair despite neither starter being anything remotely special. Miami comes into this Interleague series as the lowest scoring team in the National League. Every NL team has scored at least 77 more runs this year than have the Marlins. The White Sox have scored fewer runs this year than all but two teams. Miami is one and Detroit is the other. True to form, the Marlins were shutout on Sunday while the White Sox scored only four runs in a pair of losses over the weekend. The starting pitching matchup for this game is actually better than it looks considering Chicago's Ivan Nova is perfect in four career starts vs. Miami (4-0), posting a 0.98 ERA! Trevor Richards of the Marlins has an 0-7 team start record his last seven times out, but don't put all the blame on him as six of the seven losses saw him get no more than three runs of support. In his last 11 starts, Richards has given up three runs or less eight times. Play UNDER Miami-Chicago

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This is a 10* play on MILWAUKEE

We took the Reds both Saturday and Sunday, getting mixed results. They won for us Saturday, 3-2, but then failed to earn a split with St. Louis by losing 3-1 on Sunday. I's been a tough start to the second half for them as they've now dropped 7 of 10 with four of the losses coming by just one run. They've lost 9 of 12 overall and eventually all the close losses will wear on a team, especially one that is in last place and losing belief that "this could be their year." Milwaukee still has faith in 2019 after capturing five of six, including three of four out in Arizona this past weekend. The Brewers will go with Chase Anderson as the starter Monday and he's pitched better than he's been given credit for with a 0.975 WHIP at home and 0.886 WHIP his last three starts overall. For the Reds, Sonny Gray has pitched shockingly well of late, but we don't expect that to hold up, at least not on the road where he sports a 3-6 team start record. The Reds are just 19-29 on the road, which is a major reason why we've soured on them compared to the previous two days. Play on MILWAUKEE

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This is an 8* play on CLEVELAND

The Indians are playing well right now. They've taken advantage of a really easy schedule to go 12-3 this month and their lone loss since the All Star Break was 1-0 to the Royals on Saturday. They bounced back from that to win 5-4 Sunday and now head to Toronto to face a Blue Jays team they swept earlier in the season. Toronto is just the next bad team on the Indians' schedule as they've won less than 38% of their games this year and are just 18-30 at home. They even lost yesterday to the Tigers, who had previously dropped 22 of 25 games. While Mike Clevingers' numbers on the road might be worrisome to some, it's a very small sample size (just three starts) and his last three starts overall have resulted in only two runs allowed in 17 innings. That includes six shutout innings on the road. Here he'll be facing a Blue Jays lineup that doesn't hit well at home (.221 average). Ryan Borucki is starting a major league game for the first time all year as injuries have limited him to just four minor league assignments. It's a tough spot for him facing a team that's won 28 of its last 39 games. Play on CLEVELAND

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This is an 8* on ATLANTA

The finale of a four-game series between the top two teams in the NL East (set for Sunday night on ESPN) has seen a pitching change on the Washington side with Joe Ross replacing Austin Voth. This may seem inconsequential to some, but Ross has not started a major league game this season. He does have experience in the role (48 career starts) but his history vs. Atlanta isn't good as it's a 7.40 ERA in six games. The Braves, who are looking to earn a split of this series, are going with Kevin Gausman. Gausman hasn't appeared in the bigs since June 10th. He's been sidelined with plantar fasciitis, but looked good in his rehab start down for Triple-A Gwinnett. Atlanta is 19-9 as a home favorite of -125 to -175 and we can't see them losing three of four here to the Nationals. Play on ATLANTA

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This is a 10* on LAS VEGAS

Las Vegas is off a very disappointing loss to Seattle. Disappointing in the sense that it snapped the Aces' five-game win streak and Seattle was really shorthanded. But for the second time this year, LV failed to score 70 points against the Storm. Perhaps they can swap stories about losing to Seattle with tonight's opponent as Minnesota also lost to the Storm in their last game. Their loss came Wednesday and saw them allow 90 points, a troubling sign. Las Vegas was a five-point winner up in Minnesota last month, so beating the Lynx here in Sin City shouldn't prove too difficult. Yes, forward A'ja Wilson was injured in the loss to Seattle. But we like how the Aces held the Storm to 27% shooting. They may not have won, but that kind of defense is what you like to see. The Lynx are 3-7 ATS their last 10 road games. Play on LAS VEGAS

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This is a 10* play on the UNDER

Houston has won the first two games of the series, 4-3 and 6-1. Texas has now lost six in a row after opening the second half with a couple of wins against these Astros. One of those two wins came with today's starter, Lance Lynn, on the mound. Lynn blanked Houston for seven innings that day, giving up only six hits while striking out 11. His only other start against Houston this year was an odd one as he gave up three solo home runs in a 3-0 loss back on May 10th. So it's been two quality starts with very different results due to three pitches. Despite a loss in his most recent start, Lynn is tied for the most wins among American League starters, so we should expect another quality effort here. The problem for the Rangers is they had only two hits yesterday against a pitcher that had not looked good in his first big league start. So there's no reason to think Rogelio Armenteros can't pitch well today, even though this will be his first career start. As a reliever, he did toss four scoreless innings earlier in the week. Play UNDER Texas-Houston

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This is a 10* play on CINCINNATI

We went with the Reds yesterday citing the fact that Cardinals starter Miles Mikolas just isn't the same pitcher on the road as he is at home. The Reds won 3-2 Saturday and it's a similar situation today with them facing Jack Flaherty. Just like Mikolas, Flaherty's numbers go up dramatically when he isn't starting at Busch Stadium. He has a 5.96 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in nine road starts this season, six of those ending up as Cardinals losses. St. Louis has lost the last five times Flaherty has started and he's personally winless over his last 10 starts. Anthony DeSclafani has pitched well for the Reds recently, despite having no wins to show for it - at least this month. But he has a 3.32 ERA his last seven starts and six of those he hasn't allowed more than three runs. The Reds easily could have taken the first three games of this series (blew a 7-run lead Friday), but will have to settle for a split instead. Play on CINCINNATI

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This is a 10* play on GREG HARDY

Greg Hardy is obviously a controversial addition to the UFC roster. We're not endorsing him as a person by any means, but this is a really good price to bet on him. After looking completely outclassed in a DQ loss to Allen Crowder (Hardy threw an illegal knee strike), he bounced back with a TKO win over Dmitry Smoliakov back in April. The UFC seems hellbent on pushing Hardy and Juan Adams would seem to be the proverbial "tomato can" thrown in their to make Hardy look good. Adams suffered his first professional defeat (in only six fights) back in May to Arjan Singh Bhullar. The joke was he looked so poor in that fight that the UFC is relishing the opportunity to throw him in the Octagon with Hardy.  The UFC is doing everything it can to make the former NFL player come across as a star and will continue to have him face the weakest of opponents. At even money, this is a solid bet. Play on GREG HARDY

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This is an 8* play on CINCINNATI

It was a wild one last night here in Cincinnati with the Cardinals prevailing 12-11, thanks to a 10-run inning. Unfortunately for the Reds, that's now four straight losses and they've lost their fair share of "close ones" this year, which is why they are in last place in the NL Central despite a positive run differential (+28). St. Louis is now very much alive in the playoff hunt after winning six of their last seven, but we see them taking a "step back" tonight. Cardinals pitching isn't the same on the road as it is at home and Miles Mikolas is very representative of that statement. We took the Under with Mikolas (it won), at home, his last time out. He tossed a complete game shutout vs. Pittsburgh, improving his ERA and WHIP to 2.15 and 0.95 at Busch Stadium. But on the road, Mikolas is 1-5 with a 7.68 ERA and 1.68 WHIP. Luis Castillo has been excellent for the Reds this year, especially at home with a 1.83 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. He also just struck out 10 in a win at Wrigley Field on Monday. We saw the Cards give up 11 runs yesterday and it's highly unlikely they'll have that one big inning again tonight. That means an "L" in a starting pitching matchup that is NOT in their favor. Play on CINCINNATI

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This is an 8* Play on MINNESOTA

The Twins and A's have split the first two games of this series. The Twins were our *10* Game of the Week on Thursday and a three-run walkoff HR provided us with a 6-3 victory. The A's bounced back last night, winning 5-3. While Oakland is hotter at the moment (won 6 of 7), Minnesota still has the better overall record and we'll go back to them tonight. Jose Berrios continues to pitch well for them, although he personally has nothing to show for it over the last month or so. But this will be Berrios' first time pitching at Target Field since a gem he tossed back on 6.17 vs. Boston where he allowed only one run and five hits in eight innings of work. He also finished with 10 strikeouts and no walks that day. Brett Anderson has been feeling it of late for the A's with three straight strong efforts on the mound. But despite a 6-1 TSR in his last seven starts overall, Berrios still has the better numbers.  The Twins are 28-10 their L38 games following a loss. Play on MINNESOTA

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This is an 8* play on CLEVELAND

Not sure why Cleveland has become available at such a cheap price, but we will certainly leap at the opportunity to take them as they look to make it seven straight wins overall. They beat the Royals here at Progressive Field last night, 10-5, and that's after sweeping them out in KC earlier this month. The Indians have really feasted on these lesser teams in the AL Central as they just swept the Tigers (again!) in the series before this. Adam Plutko may not be dominant, but the Indians have won six of his seven starts so far and he goes Saturday against Jacob Junis, who has lost a pair of decisions to Cleveland over the last month. He allowed seven runs the last time he faced them and considering how the Indians offense has looked recently, we expect them to hit Junis hard again tonight. Kansas City is 14-34 on the road this season and just 1-5 after giving up 10 or more runs in the previous game. It's pretty clear to us that the Indians are the better team here. Play on CLEVELAND

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This is a 10* play on MONTREAL

Montreal is going for its first three-game win streak since the end of the 2016 season here. The oddsmakers don't like their chances, installing them as underdogs at home vs. Edmonton. That's certainly understandable given what the expectations were for the Als coming into the season. But in their only home game so far, the Als pulled what is probably the biggest upset of this CFL season to date, handing Hamilton its only loss and doing so as 12.5-point underdogs. We took them in that game and then they followed with a second straight 36-point effort, this time beating Ottawa. We like them plus the points again here as Edmonton is highly unlikely to play as well as they did last week vs. B.C. That was a spirited game when they faced former QB Mike Reilly and emotions were running high. Two of the Eskimos three wins this have been at BC's expense. The other was an opening week win over the Als, 32-25. Montreal covered the eight-point spot in that game and is now getting a similar number at home. An easy call here. Play on MONTREAL

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This is a 10* play on LAS VEGAS (10*)

Seattle has survived a bevy of turmoil to win three straight, their longest win streak of the season. They're now 11-8 overall and 7-3 at home and tonight finds them hosting Las Vegas, the first of two meetings that will take place between the teams over the next five days. Las Vegas is even hotter though as they've ripped off five straight wins and have been off since Saturday. Seattle just played two nights ago in Minnesota where they won 90-79. But with the ongoing off-court distractions involving Natasha Howard (domestic violence allegations) as well as already being out three starters, we can't see this run continuing for the Storm. Las Vegas already beat Seattle once this season, holding them to a season-low 56 points, and is now in an excellent spot to beat them again. The Aces are 5-2 ATS the last seven times they've taken the court on three or more days rest. There's a reason they are the favorite here. Play on LAS VEGAS

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This is a 10* play on OVER

Scoring is up this year in the CFL to about 55.3 points/game. That's a 9% increase from last season. But don't tell this to Ottawa as their last two games have resulted in only 33 points scored - total - and now they're saddled with a backup QB (Jonathon Jennings). But if you recall, the last time we played an Over with the Redblacks, things turned into a real "shootout" as they beat Saskatchewan 44-41. They actually went Over the total themselves. That isn't going to happen here, but once again they figure to give up a lot as they face the unbeaten Blue Bombers, who are 4-0 and averaging 34.5 points/game. Winnipeg scored a season-high 48 points last week vs. Toronto as QB Matt Nichols continues to play well. He's thrown for 10 touchdowns already. One key with Jennings is that while this is his first time starting for Ottawa, it's not his first "rodeo" in the CFL. He's actually gone 5-1 against Nichols as a starter, throwing for more yards and touchdowns in those head to head battles. Play OVER Ottawa-Winnipeg

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This is a 10* on TORONTO

The Tigers have just been awful of late and there are no signs of them turning things around anytime soon. They were just swept in Cleveland and outscored 29-11 in the four games. Overall, they've won just two times this month and are 3-20 their last 23 games. So Toronto should be happy to be paying a visit to the Motor City this weekend. Incredibly, the Tigers are just 12-32 at home this year and are -2.7 runs/game! The Blue Jays aren't exactly on a hot streak either, but they are substantially better than the Tigers. It helps that they'll be facing Jordan Zimmerman tonight. Zimmerman is still winless for the Tigers (0-6 in 11 starts) with a 7.01 ERA and 1.595 WHIP. He's been even worse lately, giving up seven runs in both July starts. He has a 9.23 ERA his last nine starts and opponents are hitting .363 off him. Marcus Stroman should do well here for the Jays. He has a 2.17 ERA in four previous starts vs. the Tigers and looked good his last time out when he held the Yankees to three runs. He also recent threw six shutout innings at Fenway Park. This should be a walk in the park by comparison. Play on TORONTO

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This is an 8* play on TORONTO

Toronto is the only team in the CFL yet to taste victory this season as they're 0-4 and really reeling. Three of their four losses have been by 25 points or more and the one that wasn't was a heart-breaking one-point defeat to B.C. on a rare walkoff rouge. Calgary figures to be in an ornery mood this evening as they are off a 30-23 loss to Hamilton last week. Three of the Stampeders four games so far have been decided by a TD or less. So while we understand why the line is as large as it is, we wouldn't want to lay it. Calgary has failed to cover four of the last five times it has been off a SU loss. Remember that starting QB Bo Levi Mitchell is still on the injured list. Argos quarterback McLeod Bethel-Thompson threw for 388 yards last week vs Winnipeg last week, in addition to three touchdowns. The underdog will not go down quietly in this one as they are desperate for a win. Play on TORONTO

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This is a 10* play on MINNESOTA

The Twins lost yesterday, which means for the first time this season, they're on a three-game losing streak. Now they start a series with the hottest team in baseball, Oakland. The A's have won their last six games and just took two from Seattle where they scored 19 runs and allowed only four. They're now within 4.5 games of Houston in the AL West. But the 6-game win streak came against Seattle and Chicago, two terrible teams. Minnesota, while on its longest losing streak of the year, still leads the Central with a 58-36 record. They are 25-11 off a loss and 3-1 after giving up 10 or more runs. Kyle Gibson toes the rubber tonight and the Twins are 12-6 in his 18 starts so far. Gibson beat the A's back on July 3rd by allowing only three runs in six innings. He was up against Michael Fiers, same as he is here, and it's notable that Gibson won on the road because Fiers is not as effective pitching on the road. Fiers has 1.85 ERA and 0.92 WHIP at home. On the road, he has a 5.10 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. This is a great time to buy low on Minnesota while at the same time selling high on Oakland. Play on MINNESOTA

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This is a 10* play on LA

The Sparks are playing short-handed here due to the 10-game suspension of Riquna Williams. In the games that Williams has started, LA has gone 5-1. They are just 4-6 with her not in the starting five. But we believe they'll have little difficulty defeating Dallas by a wide margin Thursday as the Wings have not only yet to win on the road this season (0-8), they're being outscored by 11.6 points in those games. The Wings have lost three straight and five of six, the only win coming as a five-point home underdog against LA. So the Sparks are out for revenge here and thus won't be lacking for any motivation in the wake of the Williams suspension. Ironically, the Sparks only loss in their last six games was the one at Dallas. They've won three straight home games, averaging almost 93 points/game in the process. The home team is undervalued here. Play on LOS ANGELES

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This is an 8* play on the YANKEES

The Yankees have really had the Rays number this year and that's why they are the ones out in front in the American League East. Yesterday's 10-5 victory gives the Yanks not only a 10-5 head to head advantage over the Rays in 2019, but also a six-game advantage in the division. New York has the best record in the entire American League right now and has been outstanding here at home where their record is 34-16. That includes a 16-3 mark as a favorite of -125 to -175. Domingo German starts Wednesday. The team has an 11-3 record when he pitches and he has a 2.10 ERA at home. He faced the Rays in Tampa back in May and got the 'W.' He's also 2-0 with a 0.75 ERA in his two starts since returning from a hip injury. Tampa's Chirnos got a lot of run support his last time out (Rays beat Baltimore 16-4), but that's unlikely to repeat itself tonight on ESPN. The Rays have lost Chirnos' last four starts vs. teams that have winning records. Play on the YANKEES

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This is a 10* play on the CUBS

The Cubs evened this series up at a game apiece last night, beating the Reds 4-3 in 10 innings. While this is a matchup of the first and last place teams in the NL Central, it's not as if the gap is all that overwhelming. Cincy finds itself only 6.5 games back in this wide open division and actually has the 2nd best run differential of the 5 teams. But there's no disputing the Cubs are still better as they've gone 4-1 since the All Star Break and more often that not handle their business here at Wrigley Field. They are 33-17 at home this season while the Reds are 19-28 on the road. Cincy also struggles in day games (just 13-27). Yu Darvish is starting today for the Cubs and he's never lost to the Reds before. While winless overall since April 27th, that's very misleading as 12 of his last 13 starts have been no-decisions and his WHIP in the last three is 0.96. Sonny Gray goes for the Reds. While he's pitched well his last three starts as well, not sure he should be trusted in this spot. After yesterday's loss, the Reds are now just 17-35 their past 52 games at Wrigley. Play on the CUBS

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This is an 8* play on MINNESOTA

Last night, the Mets actually beat the Twins 3-2. But we shouldn't have to tell you which team is having the better season. Minnesota leads the AL Central (58-35) while the Mets are floundering over in the NL East (43-51). The Mets have now won three straight, but that streak stops today as yesterday was a real anomaly. Not only is this the Mets first three game win streak in nearly two months, but last night marked just the third time in 32 tries this season that they won when scoring three runs or less. Minnesota has not lost three in a row this entire season, a fate they are facing this afternoon. So they're a good bet to win behind Martin Perez, who will be making his first start since the All Star Break. The Mets Jason Vargas really struggled last Friday, giving up six runs to a Marlins team that has scored the fewest number of runs in the National League. Now he has to face one of baseball's highest scoring offenses. The Twins are 17-4 after scoring 2 runs or less their previous game. Play on MINNESOTA

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This is an 8* play on OAKLAND

Seattle has been in a bad way for some time now and their 2nd half got off to an ugly start with them being swept by the Angels. The first of those three games was a 13-0 loss where they got no hit. They scored just five runs in the next two games and have lost 8 of 9 overall. Oakland is looking like a team that wants the Wild Card as they have won four in a row and just swept the White Sox here at home. The A's took two of three up in Seattle right before the All Star Break and should like their chances here tonight as they are now 29-18 at home while the Mariners are 18-29 on the road. Daniel Mengden won his start in that last Seattle series as the team's record is 5-1 in his six starts. The Mariners go with Marco Gonzales, who has a 5-1 TSR his last 6 starts, but the seven starts before that the TSR was 0-7. The one Seattle win last week over Oakland did come with Gonzales pitching, but this team is just 9-28 its last 37 games on the road. Play on OAKLAND 

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This is an 8* play on MILWAUKEE

It's been a bad start to the 2nd half for Milwaukee and really their struggles go back even further than that as they've dropped 8 of 10. But they definitely look to have the edge in starting pitching this evening over Atlanta. Brandon Woodruff gets the nod Tuesday and he's got a 14-4 team start record (best on the staff) with a 1.14 WHIP. He's even been a little sharper of late, giving up just one run in each of his last starts while going 13 2/3 innings with 12 strikeouts and 0 walks. That's certainly what you want to see. As for Atlanta's Bryse Wilson, he has a 6.59 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in just three starts and Atlanta's lost two of the three with both losses coming on the road. The Braves are 4-0 since the break and 8-1 their last 9 overall, but should hit a wall tonight at Miller Park where the home team has gone 9-1 with Woodruff on the mound on the mound this year. Woodruff has not lost a decision at home, going 8-0 in the 10 starts. Play on MILWAUKEE

AAA

This is a 10* play on TEXAS

The Rangers and Diamondbacks begin a two-game set on Tuesday. While this is an Interleague matchup, it'll actually be the fourth series between the teams in the last two years. All have been two games and the one earlier this year out in Arizona saw the teams split the pair. Texas is having the slightly stronger year overall so far as they are six games above .500 while Arizona is at the break even mark of 47-47. Both started their 2nd half with a win, but come in on two-game losing streaks. The Rangers actually took the first two games from the Astros over the weekend, only to lose the next two. The Diamondbacks lost two of three in St. Louis. Both teams are excited about who they have starting today, but we like Lance Lynn for Texas more as he's gotten it done over a longer stretch, plus he has a solid history when facing Arizona. Alex Young has made only two starts for the Diamondbacks and while the last one was a no-hitter (pulled after six innings), we're not sure any real conclusions can be made. Lynn is 12-4 this year and 3-0 with a 0.82 ERA and 0.95 WHIP his last three starts. The Rangers have won the last five times he's started. Arizona is 1-5 its last six road games. Play on TEXAS

AAA

This is an 8* play on the UNDER

The Pirates got swept over the weekend (in Chicago) while the Cardinals are off a successful series with the Diamondbacks (took 2 of 3) right here at home. This looks to be a crucial series in the crowded National League Central where all five teams are separated by only 6.5 games. St. Louis looks to be in better shape though coming out of the break and their pitching staff tends to be a lot better at Busch Stadium. Miles Mikolas has a 2.48 ERA and 0.97 WHIP at home, far better numbers than what he's produced on the road. A 2.96 ERA his L9 starts vs. Pittsburgh is also nice as is the fact he has 18 strikeouts against only two walks his past four starts. Meanwhile, the Pirates have won each of Joe Musgrove's last four starts as he's on a bit of a hot streak (1.64 ERA in last 22 IP). This sets up to be a rather low-scoring affair as every Cardinals game over the weekend saw seven or fewer total runs scored (Under was 3-0) and the Under is 3-1-1 when Musgrove starts on seven or more days rest. Play UNDER Pittsburgh-St. Louis

AAA

This is a 10* play on the CUBS

The Cubs started the second half hot by sweeping the Pirates. They now lead the NL Central by 2.5 games and will turn to a different divisional foe in Cincinnati. The Reds may be in last place, but actually have the division's 2nd best run differential. Unfortunately for them though, this series is at Wrigley Field. The Cubs are 32-16 at the Friendly Confines and today's starter (Kyle Hendricks) tends to pitch very well here. Hendricks has a 1.65 ERA and 0.88 WHIP at home. He's also got two quality starts under his belt against the Reds this season. The Reds lost two of three out in Coors over the weekend, giving up a lot of runs (19) over the last two games. This should be a very different series in terms of the offense as the Cubs pitching staff is allowing only 3.7 runs/game at home. The Reds typically don't have a strong offense, so while Luis Castillo has pitched well for them, we just don't see Cincy matching up here. The Cubs are 50-17 their last 67 home games against teams with losing road records. They've won 7 of the last 10 times Hendricks has started a series opener. The Reds are just 2-6 after scoring 5 or more runs in their last game. Play on the CUBS

AAA

This is a 7* play on BOSTON

Being that they had to play into the late hours of last night, and lost, a case could be made for this not being a great spot to take the Red Sox. But the bottom line here is they are so superior to Toronto that last night's events hardly matter. It was a very good Dodgers team that beat them Sunday night, 7-4, a game which ended up going 12 innings. The Blue Jays' second half got off to a losing start by them dropping two of three in New York. They've now lost six of nine, all to division rivals, and should be viewed as a non-contender moving forward. Boston did just take two of three up in Toronto right before the All Star Break. They are 35-15 vs. Toronto the past three seasons and 22-9 the past two. Rick Porcello should get back on track here against a Blue Jays lineup which has produced two runs or fewer in five of its last six games. The last time Tyler Thornton started against Boston, he gave up seven runs and 11 hits while lasting only 2 2/3 innings. Play on BOSTON

AAA

This is an 8* play on BOSTON

The Dodgers finally were able to win a game at Fenway Park, beating the Red Sox last night 9-2. But even with All Star starter Hyun-Jin Ryu starting tonight's game on ESPN, we don't think they can make it two straight. While Ryu was unquestionably great throughout the first half of the season, perhaps the All Star festivities took their toll on him. Also, it's not like Boston won't have an ace of their own going Sunday night. David Price is undefeated going all the way back to April 27th, a stretch of 11 starts, and has allowed two runs or less in his last four starts. Remember that Price beat Ryu here in Boston in Game 2 of last year's World Series. The Red Sox are 21-6 in Price's last 27 home starts and 7-1 his last eight interleague starts. But here's the real kicker - the Dodgers are just 3-15 in Ryu's last 18 starts away from home against a team with a winning record. Play on BOSTON

AAA

This is a 6* play on the METS

We had the Mets with Syndergaard last night (a 4-2 win!) and we like them even more today with deGrom pitching. When Robinson Cano hit a go-ahead two-run homer in the top of the eighth Saturday, it had to feel sweet for the Mets, who had lost four in a row to Miami dating back to a sweep in May. But they'd also won the season's first five meetings and the fact remains that the Marlins are the only team below them in the NL East standings. While this is the second straight year that deGrom has a team start record not equal to his own individual prowess, we'll still lean on a reigning Cy Young winner that has posted a 2.96 ERA his last seven trips to the mound. Miami averages only 3.6 runs/game at home and will struggle to put many on the board today. Sandy Alcantara has been pretty inconsistent for the Marlins. He allowed six runs his last start here at home. The Marlins are 5-17 as a home underdog of +125 to +175 this year. Play on the METS

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This is a 10* play on CLEVELAND

What a disappointment this series has been for Cleveland. They went into the All Star Break riding a six-game win streak and were just 5.5 games back of the Twins in the AL Central. They're now 7.5 games back after losing the last two days. Friday's game saw the Indians blow a 3-1 lead while another shaky bullpen effort resulted in a 6-2 loss Saturday. Shane Bieber starts Sunday's finale and he can claim an 8-3 record in 18 starts (12-6 TSR) with a 0.99 WHIP. Leading up to the Break, Bieber had really been "lights out" with a string of five straight strong efforts. He has a 1.69 ERA and 0.66 WHIP his last three starts and back on June 4th he beat Minnesota here at Progressive Field, allowing just two runs and five hits. Bieber lasted seven innings that day. For the Twins, All Star Jose Berrios has had Cleveland's number in two starts this year, but we think the third time will be the charm here for the Tribe. Berrios does not have a win in any of his last five starts overall. We remain unconvinced that the Twins offense will be able to match their production from the 1st half of the season down the stretch. Play on CLEVELAND

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This is an 8* play on BOSTON

The Red Sox really seem to have the Dodgers number, don't they? All it took was five games to win the World Series last Fall and last night was another whitewashing with Boston coming out ahead 8-1. The Dodgers have now lost seven straight times at Fenway Park. They've also lost four in a row going back to the first half of the season. You'd have to go back to early April and a six-game slide to find the only worse stretch of baseball LA has played in 2019. Usually, they have the edge in starting pitching, but not here with Ross Stripling facing Chris Sale. Sale hasn't been as good in years past, but this is a pretty amazing price on him, pitching at home no less. Stripling has given up four runs in each of his last two starts and didn't make it out of the fifth either time. He's not made it past the fifth since April 14th vs. Milwaukee. He's only in the rotation because of an injury to Rich Hill. The Red Sox have quietly won five in a row, so this is a bad time for the Dodgers to be returning to Beantown. Play on BOSTON

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This is an 8* play on CLEVELAND

Cleveland let a golden opportunity to gain ground on Minnesota slip away last night, blowing a 3-1 lead and losing 5-3. That ended a six-game win streak by the Indians and they're now 6.5 games back of the Twins in the AL Central. We did have the Indians in last night's game, which left a sour taste in our mouths, but they should bounce back today with Trevor Bauer on the hill. Bauer has the fourth most strikeouts (149) in the American League and leads all of baseball with 132 innings pitched. The Indians have won his last six starts. Minnesota starter Odorizzi is heading in the opposite direction with four straight shaky performances. Odorizzi's ERA and WHIP in the last three starts are 8.76 and 1.78. Again, Cleveland had the Twins where they wanted them last night, only for an error to open the door for some two-out scoring. Minnesota definitely overachieved in the 1st half of the season and we see the Indians making this division a tight race in the 2nd half. Play on CLEVELAND

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This is an 8* play on the METS

Since winning each of the first five meetings this year, the Mets have seemingly forgotten how to beat the Marlins. They've now LOST four straight times to the only team in the division that's below them. All four losses have been here in Miami. There was a three-game sweep back in May, then an 8-4 loss last night. Fortunately for the Mets though, they'll send Noah Syndergaard out on Saturday and he should be able to reverse this trend of losing to the Marlins. Syndergaard is 6-1 with a 1.72 ERA vs. Miami in his career, pitching 62 innings. He did take the loss back in May, but allowed only two runs and five hits in seven innings. The problem was the Mets didn't score (lost 3-0) as Miami's Sandy Alcantara tossed a complete game shutout. We strongly doubt that today's starter, Zac Gallen, will deliver a similar performance. This is just the 4th start for Gallen, who has yet to go longer than five innings. The Mets have won Syndergaard's last four starts despite him not really being at his best. Against a team he usually dominates, we should get the best Syndergaard has to offer here. Play on METS

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This is a 10* play UNDER Montreal-Ottawa

Montreal stunned the CFL community last week with a 36-29 upset of Hamilton. The Als were 12.5-point home underdogs in the contest and somehow beat an undefeated team that had looked unstoppable its previous two games. One of those two games was a 41-10 win over the Als. That was in Hamilton and the Als are back on the road this week to face Ottawa, who suffered their first loss of the season last week as well. It was not an impressive showing from the Redblacks as they managed just 14 points at home against the unbeaten Blue Bombers. This game figures to be another low-scoring affair as we just can't see Montreal duplicating its surprising offensive success from last week. After all, they scored just 35 points the first two games combined. William Stanback had a huge game rushing the ball last week, but the Redblacks' front seven should be up to the challenge. We're not sold on either QB in this matchup either. The Under has hit in the last nine meetings between these East Division rivals. Play UNDER Montreal-Ottawa

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This is a 10* play on TORONTO

The Argos are the only winless team in the CFL, but at least they were able to play a competitive game last week. We said that would be the case and took the points with them at home against B.C. The result was a wire to wire cover with the Argos losing by just a single point, 18-17 as 7.5-point pups. That was a far cry from what happened the first two weeks as they lost 64-14 to Hamilton and 32-7 to Saskatchewan. It'll be another hard game this week as they head to Manitoba to play the Bombers. Winnipeg is the only unbeaten team in the league, but the oddsmakers are being more than generous here. The Bombers have not won by more than 15 this year and have not been favored by more than five points in any game. It's unlikely they'll win big here considering QB Matt Nichols isn't 100 percent (will start though) and neither is top defensive player Adam Bighill (status is questionable). The Argos are still hungry for that first win and thus won't be throwing in the towel here. We'll grab the big number. Play on TORONTO

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