Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-09-20 | Chattanooga v. Bellarmine +2.5 | Top | 77-68 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BELLARMINE Don’t feel bad if you’ve never heard of Bellarmine. The University, located in Louisville, KY, is new to Division I this season. They just picked up their first ever DI victory two days ago, beating Howard 84-63. This will be their first ever home game as a DI school, so it’s a pretty big deal (even without fans present). They host Chattanooga, who has opened 4-0. Besides Howard, the Knights’ only other game thus far was against Duke and they were actually competitive in the first half of that game. Despite being unbeaten, Chattanooga is in a bit of a tough situation here playing its second road game in three days. They won at Middle Tennessee Monday 80-70 as two-point pups. That victory seems to have influenced this line greatly, but we see value on what should be a fired up Bellarmine team. Play on BELLARMINE AAA |
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12-08-20 | Cal-Irvine v. USC OVER 135.5 | Top | 56-91 | Win | 100 | 23 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER USC looks to rebound from its first loss of the season here, hosting UC Irvine. The Trojans fell 61-58 to UConn last Thursday, shooting only 35.8% in the process. That wasn’t just a season-low in FG%, it was also the 1st time the Trojans were held below 50% overall shooting in a game this year. Their defense has been dominant in holding three straight opponents below 35% shooting. But it’s hard to keep doing that. UC Irvine is off a win where it scored over 100 points, though the opponent (La Sierra?) had a lot to do with that. Still we expect the Anteaters to score more than they’re expected to tonight. The problem will be that they’ve allowed over 80 PPG to Division I opponents thus far and Southern Cal figures to have a big bounce back game at the offensive end. The Over is 4-0 in UC Irvine’s last four road games and 5-1 their last six as an underdog. Play OVER AAA |
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12-08-20 | Illinois +4 v. Duke | Top | 83-68 | Win | 100 | 23 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ILLINOIS #6 Illinois takes on #10 Duke as part of the Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge on Tuesday. This is also one of two matchups of Top 10 opponents on tonight’s card (Creighton-Kansas). The Illini will be looking to bounce back from an ugly 89-62 defeat they suffered at the hands of #2 Baylor last week. Duke also knows what it’s like to taste defeat as they fell last Tuesday to Michigan State. That game was played in Cameron and while the Blue Devils have since bounced back (76-54 win over Bellarmine), that win really proves nothing. Duke is 0-3 ATS and seemingly overrated at #10 in the polls. A second home loss to a top 10 Big 10 opponent is certainly not out of the realm of possibility here as Illinois is 4-1 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points. We like what we saw from the Illini in the first few games and believe them to be a legit Top 10 team. We don’t feel the same about Duke right now as they’ve used eight different players in the starting five so far and had just two double digit scorers in the last game. They’re young. Play on ILLINOIS AAA |
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12-08-20 | Cowboys v. Ravens OVER 45 | Top | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 21 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Lamar Jackson is off the COVID-19 list, which means we can just assume he’s going to start tonight for the Ravens. That’s bad news for a Cowboys defense that’s already giving up 32.6 points/game, which is the most in the league this season. Particularly concerning for the Cowboys is a run defense which is last in the league, allowing 156.4 yards per game. Baltimore will get both Mark Ingram and JK Dobbins back this week after both missed last week’s loss in Pittsburgh. As a team, the Ravens have run for 100+ yards in 34 consecutive games. So they’re going to move the ball in this game. Last time we saw Dallas they allowed 41 against Washington on Thanksgiving Day. That horrid effort dropped them to 3-8 on the year. With Andy Dalton as the starting QB, you may not be expecting much from the Cowboys offense tonight. But they did put up 31 on the Vikings two weeks ago. Scoring only 16 against an excellent Washington defense (did you see last night?) should not be viewed as a big deal. The Ravens defense has given up at least 28 points in three of their last six games. The Over is 4-1 the last five times Baltimore has been off a loss. Play on OVER AAA |
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12-08-20 | Juventus v. Barcelona FC OVER 3 | Top | 3-0 | Push | 0 | 16 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 7* on the OVER As was expected, Barcelona and Juventus have dominated Group G of the Champions League. Both have already booked their spot in the knockout stage with Barca a perfect 5-0 and Juventus 4-0-1. It would take one heck of a performance by “The Old Lady” (Juventus) on Tuesday to wrest away the top spot in the Group. This is because Barca has an aggregate score of 16-2 in winning their first five five fixtures. Juventus’ goal differential is only +7. Of course, the best way to rectify that discrepancy is to score plenty of goals here. Problem is that Barca has not lost in the Group Stage of the UCL since 2016-17, a span of 25 matches. They are also unbeaten in 38 straight matches at home in European competition. They won the reverse fixture 2-0 back on October 28th. But if anyone can run up a big score here, it would be Juventus, who put the ball in the back of the net three times in their last UCL fixture. There’s the issue of Barca’s La Liga inconsistency creeping in here. Both managers are expected to select strong lineups. We’re on the Over. Play on OVER AAA |
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12-08-20 | Morgan State v. Iona -8 | Top | 83-72 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 19 m | Show |
This is an 8* on IONA Iona and Morgan State are both 1-1 having lost their respective openers and then coming back to win the second time out. But while the records are the same, the paths were very different. Iona has played Seton Hall and Hofstra, both on the road. Morgan State has faced Mt. St. Marys and Lincoln PA, both at home. Before you go writing off Hofstra as a strong opponent, Iona was an 8.5-point underdog against them. By the way, the Gaels are now being coached by Rick Pitino. Now he’s favored for the first time in almost three years. Given that Morgan State just allowed 94 to Lincoln PA after scoring only 55 vs. MSM, this should be an easy one for Pitino’s team. Iona leads all MAAC teams, scoring 73 points/game. They have three players that account for 67 percent of the scoring. Isaiah Ross is their best player as he’s shooting 52% from three and 99% from the free throw line. Iona is 4-0 all-time vs. Morgan State and should take advantage of a Bears team that is 0 for its last 5 ATS when playing with 5 or 6 days rest. Play on IONA AAA |
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12-07-20 | Bills v. 49ers OVER 47 | Top | 34-24 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Because of Covid, the 49ers have lost their home field advantage. This game is being played in Arizona (Cardinals stadium) as will next week’s “home game” vs. Washington. That’s a pretty significant disadvantage for the stretch run, although the Niners did just go on the road and beat a very good Rams team last week. Buffalo has already played once here in Arizona and that’s a game they’d like to forget as they lost on the infamous “Hail Murray.” If you recall, that was a high scoring game (32-30) as are most Bills games with the average number of total points scored being 52.8. That’s noticeably higher than the total set for tonight. The 49ers average 27.2 points/game at home, which is up from what they are averaging on the road. A key for them last week was that WR Deebo Samuel, who leads the league in yards after catch, returned to the lineup. The Over is 7-3-1 for the Bills this season including 7-0-1 when they are off a win. (They put up 27 in beating the Chargers last Sunday). Play on OVER AAA |
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12-07-20 | Fairfield v. Hartford -3.5 | Top | 54-67 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
This is an 8* on HARTFORD After starting 0-2 (losses to UConn and Villanova), Hartford has started to gain some momentum with back to back wins. One of those was against Fairfield, who they’ll play again tonight. Fairfield is 0-3 and while they’ve been “in” the last two games (lost 66-61 to Hartford), it’s tough to imagine the Stags winning on the road tonight after the lost to Hartford at home. Neither team shot well in the first meeting, although Fairfield did make 7 of its 18 three-point attempts while Hartford was just 8 of 28. We don’t see them shooting that much better from distance now that they’re the road team nor do we believe they’ll hold a +9 edge in free throw attempts like they enjoyed last week. Really, the fact Fairfield couldn’t beat this Hartford team at home is a bad sign. The Stags have lost 45 of their last 66 games overall including 8-23 on the road. Play on HARTFORD AAA |
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12-06-20 | Broncos v. Chiefs -13.5 | Top | 16-22 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 19 m | Show |
Ths is a 9* on KC Kansas City has won three straight close games. They beat Carolina by 2, Las Vegas by 4 and Tampa Bay by 3. But really the only game they were in danger of losing was the one in Vegas. They never trailed in Tampa last week and failed to cover only because of a garbage time TD. We see the Chiefs having no problems beating a TERRIBLE Denver team this week. The Broncos infamously had “no QB” last week vs. the Saints and that went as well you’d expect. They lost 31-3 at home. Just to illustrate how far apart these two AFC West sides are - Kansas City has been favored in 10 of 11 games this year while Denver has been an underdog in all 11. The Chiefs have also beaten the Broncos 10 straight times including 43-16 earlier in the year. That was the third straight win by at least 20 in this division rivalry. KC is 8-1-1 ATS in those 10 meetings. It really doesn’t matter who plays QB for Denver this week, they simply are incapable of scoring enough to stay within the spread against the Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes vs. Drew Lock is a major mismatch in favor of the home team. Play on KANSAS CITY AAA |
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12-06-20 | Washington State v. USC -11 | Top | 13-38 | Win | 100 | 33 h 40 m | Show |
analysis to follow |
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12-06-20 | Seattle University v. Long Beach State -4.5 | Top | 75-80 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LBSU Long Beach State’s season didn’t get off to a good start as they lost by 24 at Loyola Marymount on Friday. But the 49ers have what looks to be their easiest game of the non-conference slate here on Sunday as they host a Seattle team that’s coming off two straight double digit losses, the more recent coming by 26 against UCLA. Coach Dan Monson has been known for challenging his team with tough non-conference schedules ever since he arrived here in Long Beach back in 2007. The 49ers didn’t “show up” for the season opener, but they will for what is their lone home game between now and the 1st of the year. This is a shockingly low spread in our eyes, but we’ll take it as LBSU is 5-0 (straight up) the past three seasons as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. They’ve won over two-thirds of the time in that role. Seattle is shooting below 30% from three-point range so far. LBSU has revenge for an ugly 22-point loss up the coast from last season. Play on LONG BEACH STATE AAA |
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12-06-20 | Rams v. Cardinals +3 | Top | 38-28 | Loss | -115 | 94 h 6 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ARIZONA Arizona is 6-5. But if not for a Hail Mary against Buffalo three weeks ago, they’d be below .500 and on a four-game losing streak entering this week. The Cardinals have struggled when favored this season, going just 2-5 ATS as chalk. So we were quite pleased at the early line movement for this NFC West showdown with the Rams. This is the first of two meetings between these teams. The Rams are 7-4, but they too suffered an upset loss last week - 23-20 to San Francisco. The Rams defense hasn’t been as good on the road (23.3 PPG allowed vs. 15.0 at home), which is good news for Kyler Murray and the Arizona offense. Back to the spread, the Cardinals are 12-6-1 ATS as an underdog for coach Kingsbury. We look for Arizona to snap its four-game ATS losing streak this week and probably its six-game (straight up) losing streak to the Rams. We don’t think that LA should be favored in this game. Play on ARIZONA AAA |
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12-06-20 | Rams v. Cardinals OVER 48.5 | Top | 38-28 | Win | 100 | 94 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Even with Kyler Murray nursing a shoulder injury, we think there’s going to be plenty of offense in this game -- from both sides. The good news for Murray and the Cardinals is that this game is at home. The Rams defense just hasn’t been as good on the road as it's been at home. They give up 23.3 points/game on the road compared to just 15.0 in Los Angeles. Arizona is one of the best rushing teams as they lead the league in yards per attempt and are 4th overall in rushing yards. They and the Rams both run up-tempo offense, which is conducive to the game going Over. All five times that Arizona has covered as a home dog for Kingsbury, the game has gone Over. (We like the Cardinals to cover this week). The Rams may have the highest Under percentage in the league this season (tied with Chicago at 8-2) but something to keep in mind is the Under is 5-0 when they’re at home. Again, this game is being played in Arizona, not LA. Play on OVER AAA |
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12-06-20 | Browns v. Titans -5.5 | Top | 41-35 | Loss | -110 | 91 h 1 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TENNESSEE Cleveland is an exceptionally weak 8-3 team. Let’s start with the fact they’ve given up more points than they’ve scored. Not even 4-7 Atlanta can say that! What the Browns have been doing is winning the games “they should” (i.e. when favored) and usually close. They are 7-1 SU as favorites in 2020. However their last four wins, which were against Jacksonville, Houston, Philadelphia and Cincinnati (all teams with losing records) have come by a combined 13 points (none by more than five points). The Browns are not favored this week against a fellow 8-3 team in Tennessee. They lost by 32 at Baltimore and 31 at Pittsburgh. That’s something that jumps out to us, as the Titans played both teams tough, even defeating the Ravens (with Lamar Jackson) on the road. The Titans looked GREAT last week in putting up 45 points on a short-handed Colts defense. Ryan Tannehill has proven himself to be a very good NFL QB (certainly better than Baker Mayfield) and a key to his success is not turning the ball over. Tennessee has the fewest number of giveaways in the league right now. They’ll win comfortably on Sunday. Play on TENNESSEE AAA |
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12-06-20 | Bengals +11.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 7-19 | Loss | -103 | 91 h 60 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CINCINNATI Cincinnati’s straight up record is just 2-8-1. But this is a team that competes. They are 7-4 ATS with two of the non-covers coming vs. league heavyweights Baltimore and Pittsburgh. Just look at what they did last week. Playing for the first time without Joe Burrow (OFY), they were able to stay within the 6.5-point spread against the Giants, losing only 19-17. Now it took a special teams touchdown to do that, but give credit to a defense that has allowed 20 points or fewer in three of its last four games. We laid the points with Miami last week but did so against a completely inept (and winless) Jets team. This week’s spread is higher and we just don’t see the Dolphins as a team you’d want to lay double digits with. It’s only the fifth time Miami has been favored all season. Other than against the Jets, they have not had to lay more than four to any opponent. This is the first game where they’ve had to lay 10 or more in over a decade! We don’t know who the starting QB will be for the Dolphins, but will take the points anyway in what figures to be another close loss for Cincinnati. Play on CINCINNATI AAA |
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12-05-20 | Colorado v. Arizona UNDER 58 | Top | 24-13 | Win | 100 | 24 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Colorado and Arizona have gotten off to very different starts. Colorado is 3-0 and they look to keep rolling here against an 0-3 Arizona team that will be an underdog for the 19th time in 23 games under Kevin Sumlin against Power 5 competition. ‘Zona hasn’t fared too well as a dog, going just 4-15 straight up. They’ve lost a school-record 10 in a row, dating back to last season. They haven’t covered either of the last two weeks, losing by 17 points both times. Colorado is 3-0 ATS as well as SU, so it’s not a surprise that the line has moved in their direction all week long. But we’re not about to lay this many with a team that has won by only 10, 3 and 6 points. Two of those games, the Buffaloes were the underdog. Neither of these offenses are all that explosive as the Buffs have just one play of 40+ yards while the Wildcats have just one play of 34+ yards. Colorado’s offense is excellent at dominating the time of possession, but it’s red zone efficiency (13 for 13 with 11 touchdowns) isn’t likely to be maintained moving forward. That has us on the Under this week. Both teams have seen their point totals decrease every game. Arizona has an injury at QB. Play on UNDER AAA |
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12-05-20 | Boston College v. Virginia -6 | Top | 32-43 | Win | 100 | 99 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 9* on VIRGINIA We think it's fair to say that both Boston College and Virginia have surpassed expectations in 2020. Boston College is 6-4, pulling some upsets along the way. First year coach Jeff Hafley has done a good job as has his QB Phil Jurkovec. But Jurkovec and top rusher David Bailey suffered injuries in last week’s win over Louisville. While both are listed atop their respective depth charts, the injuries are something worth monitoring. Virginia is going to be highly motivated for this game as they have never beaten BC in six all-time matchups. Getting back to this season, the Cavaliers have covered four straight, winning the last three straight up and should be fresh off a bye week. They were supposed to have faced Florida State last week, but that didn’t happen. Before that they face Abilene Christian so it’s been several weeks since they’ve been tested. The fact the Cavs beat North Carolina here at home carries a lot of weight with us as does their 16-2 SU record in the last 18 home games (12-5-1 ATS). When playing with at least two weeks rest, Virginia is 5-0 ATS the past three seasons. Play on VIRGINIA AAA |
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12-05-20 | Penn State v. Rutgers +11.5 | Top | 23-7 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 9 m | Show |
This is an 8* on RUTGERS Penn State finally broke into the win column as it defeated another struggling “blue blood” (Michigan) 27-17 on the road. That was also the first time all season that the Nittany Lions covered the spread. While not as bad as their record indicates, last week’s performance didn’t say to us that PSU was anywhere close to deserving of its Top 15 preseason ranking. It’s back to laying double digits this week, on the road, against a Rutgers team that’s been competitive in 2020. The Scarlet Knights are 4-1 ATS as underdogs so far and just pulled their second upset of the season, beating Purdue 37-30 last week in West Lafayette. Before that, Rutgers had suffered close losses to Michigan (49-43) and Illinois (23-20), the former being a multi-overtime affair. So we don’t see the Scarlet Knights getting blown out at home here. After getting the proverbial “monkey off their back” last week, there’s going to be a tendency for Penn State to “ease up” this week. They’ve covered just one of the last five times they’ve been a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points. You’d have to go back to September 2018 to find the last time the Nittany Lions covered the spread in two straight games. Play on RUTGERS AAA |
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12-05-20 | Oklahoma State -2.5 v. TCU | Top | 22-29 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 8 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OK State Oklahoma State is set to meet TCU this week as the Cowboys look to further distance themselves from the beating they took from rival Oklahoma in Bedlam two weeks ago. Minus their top two running backs, the Pokes still were able to put up 50 points and over 500 yards last week in a win over Texas Tech. They didn’t cover, but that’s because they were laying double digits and gave up two late touchdowns to the Red Raiders to make it a 50-44 final. TCU, who is just 5-11 ATS its last 16 home games, doesn’t have the kind of firepower to keep pace here. Though they did score 59 last week, that was against Kansas, so it really “doesn’t count.” They also scored three non-offensive touchdowns in that contest. Oklahoma State is certainly better than the last three teams TCU has beaten and the Cowboys have won 10 of their last 12 games when the line is a field goal or less either way. The Horned Frogs have been hit hard by COVID and were missing upwards of 30 players last week. That’s not good. Play on OKLAHOMA STATE AAA |
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12-05-20 | Rice v. Marshall -23 | Top | 20-0 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 1 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MARSHALL Marshall is still undefeated (7-0) and ranked 21st in the latest College Football Playoff rankings. They’re not getting much respect nationwide (they are 15th in both AP & Coaches Polls), but they could probably care less. The Thundering Herd are winning by an average of 27.3 points/game and have covered all but two times. One of those two ATS losses was as a 44-point favorite vs. UMass, a game they won 51-10. The other was a 20-9 win over an FAU team that has a really good defense. Rice does not have a good defense nor are they getting 44 points this week in Huntington. This will be just game #4 for the Owls, whose season did not get underway until October 24th. They played just one game in November and lost 27-17 to North Texas. The three teams Rice has played - Middle Tennessee, Southern Miss and North Texas - are all terrible and in no way prepares them for this huge step up in class. Marshall has been off for 21 days and looking to beat up on somebody. Rice will oblige. Play on MARSHALL AAA |
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12-04-20 | North Dakota v. Minnesota -21.5 | Top | 67-76 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MINNESOTA Big time mismatch here as Minnesota is 3-0 while North Dakota State is 0-2. You might be thinking that the large point spread could be of “assistance” to the Fighting Hawks on Friday, but you’d be wrong as they are 0-6 ATS their past six chances as a road underdog of at least 12.5 points. Not only did ND suffer a double digit loss in the season opener at Miami (OH), they lost to a team named Dixie State just two days ago. That’s a brand new team to Division I and the fact ND was just a three-point favorite to begin with speaks volumes about the state of this program. Meanwhile, Minnesota is averaging 84.7 points in three games. They just beat Loyola Marymount twice. While they didn’t cover the second time, they held LMU below 25% shooting from three-point range. That coupled with an explosive offense should result in an easy win Friday. The Gophers got called for a lot of fouls in their last game, which is why that game stayed so close. Don’t see them getting whistled as much tonight at home and against a really bad team, that means a blowout is coming. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |
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12-04-20 | UL-Lafayette v. Appalachian State OVER 53 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 40 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER The Sun Belt is really strong at the top this year. The conference currently boasts two Top 25 teams and neither is Appalachian State, who has been the standard-bearer the last couple seasons. It should be a good one Friday night in Boone, NC as App State hosts #25 Louisiana, who will be playing in the Conference Championship Game on December 19th against a Coastal Carolina team that might still be undefeated. It’ll be the third straight year for Louisiana in that game. They’ve never won it, nor have they ever defeated Appalachian State (0-8) since they became conference rivals. It won’t be easy this time either though they do average 35.0 points/game after scoring 70 last week. On the flip side, look for Appalachian State to move the ball in this game via the run. The Mountaineers are averaging 256 rushing yards per game. That’s a problem for a Louisiana defense that is allowing 170 rushing yards per game. The Ragin Cajuns have already permitted 16 rushing touchdowns and when they faced Coastal Carolina earlier in the year, they allowed 200+ yards on the ground and a pair of touchdowns. Two offenses averaging more than 30 points/game merit a total higher than this. Play on the OVER AAA |
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12-03-20 | Air Force v. Utah State +10.5 | Top | 35-7 | Loss | -110 | 57 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UTAH STATE Utah State is now 1-4 on the season as they recorded their first win of the season last Thursday, beating New Mexico by a score of 41-24. The Aggies get another home game this week, this time against an Air Force team that was supposed to play last Thursday as well, but didn’t. Their game vs. Colorado State was one of many games cancelled/postponed because of COVID-19. That means the Falcons played just one game in November. They made it count with a 28-0 shutout of the same New Mexico team that Utah State just defeated. Now that both Mountain West sides have proven they can dominate a winless team, let’s see what they can do against one another. The spread just seems too high for an Air Force team playing on the road with just four games under its belt. While it’s true that Utah State has played only five games, they haven’t had much interruption since their season began. For Air Force, this is only the second game in five weeks. Historically, they haven’t been good as road favorites (2-4 ATS L6) or on Thursdays (7-13 SU/ATS). Last week’s win should give Utah State some confidence that they can keep this one close. Play on UTAH STATE AAA |
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12-03-20 | Montana v. Southern Utah +1 | Top | 63-64 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SOUTHERN UTAH Perhaps you’re watching “Big Sky” (on ABC) but we expect no real surprises here in the conference that bears that show’s namesake. Southern Utah should be able to defeat Montana at home as the Golden Grizzlies appear to be a bit shorthanded for their conference opener and did not look good against USC on Saturday, which is the only game that they have played. Montana was held to 62 points on 33.9% shooting and then got torched on the defensive end, allowing USC to shoot 50%. They really struggled to defend the three-point line in that game. Look for that to be a problem here against a Southern Utah outfit that has shot the lights out in two games, making almost 42% of their 3PA. The Thunderbirds have scored 83 and 95 points in their two games. These Big Sky rivals played two close games last season with the road team winning both times. But Southern Utah has won 21 of its past 30 at home and seems like a good value tonight. Play on SOUTHERN UTAH AAA |
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12-03-20 | VMI v. Virginia Tech -21.5 | Top | 57-64 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* on VA TECH Virginia Tech should not encounter much resistance tonight when it goes up against VMI, a team that traditionally gives up a lot of points. In their lone game thus far against meaningful competition, the Keydets gave up 86 points to Penn State. They won their other two contests, but those were against St. Andrews and Longwood. Virginia Tech is a legit Top 25 team right now (ranked #16) that has already beaten Villanova 81-73 as a nine-point underdog. The Hokies have also beaten VMI each of the past two seasons, both times by double digits. The Hokies followed their big upset of Villanova with a 75-68 win over South Florida on Sunday and haven’t played since, so they should be well rested. VMI played two nights ago, which won’t do them any favors tonight. That they lost by 30 to Penn State is particularly instructive when handicapping this matchup. This is a team predicted to finish 9th in the 10-team Southern Conference. The Hokies are shooting almost 50% through three games and should score at will in this one. Play on VIRGINIA TECH AAA |
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12-02-20 | Texas-Arlington v. Arkansas UNDER 148.5 | Top | 60-72 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER Arkansas will look to make it 3 for 3 to open the year when they host UT Arlington Wednesday night. The Razorbacks opened the season by winning by 80 (!) against Miss Valley State and then by 15 against North Texas. UT Arlington is unbeaten against the spread (3-0), but just 1-2 straight up as they suffered close losses to Oklahoma State and Louisiana Tech before beating Northwestern State on Saturday. The fact that Arkansas has scored 142 points in a game is something that caused the oddsmakers to pay attention. So expect high totals the next few games. But the offense quickly came back down to Earth against North Texas, scoring “only” 69 points. They also did a really solid job defensively in that game. Giving up an average of less than 60 points on 33% shooting is something we like to see. UT Arlington has gone Under eight straight times as a road underdog of 12.5 or more points. They are shooting only 29% from three so far. Arkansas is 11-3 Under as a home favorite of more than 12 points. Number is too high here. Play on UNDER AAA |
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12-02-20 | North Florida v. Florida State -25.5 | Top | 58-86 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
This is an 8* on FLORIDA STATE Another game that won’t be close on Wednesday’s NCAAB slate is when Florida State hosts North Florida. The 22nd ranked Seminoles will be opening their season tonight while North Florida is already 0-3. All three losses for the Ospreys have been blowouts with them going down to Eastern Kentucky by 13, NC State by 35 and Miami by 18. That middle result is what sticks out to us. Florida State is better than all three teams North Florida has faced so far and thus this figures to turn into another long night. While the ‘Noles did lose a couple of lottery picks to the NBA, they did bring in Scottie Barnes, the highest rated recruit ever to come to Tallahassee. FSU typically defends very well and has scored 98 and 95 points the last two years on North Florida. This is precisely the kind of opponent you want to open your season against. Play on FLORIDA STATE AAA |
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12-02-20 | Morehead State v. Ohio State -24 | Top | 44-77 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OHIO STATE We expect Ohio State to have little difficulty here blowing out Morehead State. The 23rd ranked Buckeyes are 2-0 and won both games by double digits. Admittedly, it was just a 10-point win over UMass-Lowell where they trailed in the second half. But they’d previously beaten Illinois State by 27 in the season opener. The closer than expected call against Mass-Lowell seems to have influenced this line and we say it’s time to take advantage. While Morehead State is off an upset win against Arkansas State, 69-61 as a three point home underdog, they’d previously lost to Kentucky by 36 and Richmond by 18. That’s the caliber of competition they are up against here. In those two defeats, the Eagles allowed the opponents to shoot almost 56% overall while averaging 81.5 points. Ohio State scored 94 in the season opener, so it should be another big offensive night for them in Columbus. Play on OHIO STATE AAA |
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12-02-20 | Ravens +10.5 v. Steelers | Top | 14-19 | Win | 100 | 30 h 42 m | Show |
THIS IS AN 8* ON BALTIMORE All hell has broken loose in Baltimore as the Ravens' COVID-19 outbreak began on Monday. All told, 12 players have been affected. The most notable being QB Lamar Jackson. This game has been moved twice, from Thursday to Sunday and then Sunday to Tuesday. This seemingly could not have come at a worse time for the Ravens as the team has dropped three of its last four games including back to back losses for the first time since early last season. Now they face the 10-0 Steelers who won 28-24 in Baltimore earlier this month. But we’re looking at this as a “buy low” situation on the Ravens. They led a good Tennessee team 21-10 in the third quarter last week before losing in overtime. The Ravens are 4-0 ATS the last four times they’ve been an underdog. The underdog is 19-7-3 ATS the past 29 meetings between Baltimore and Pittsburgh and the road team has covered six of the last eight. This is the first time in a long while that the public seems “down” on the Ravens. An interesting tidbit on the Steelers is that only three teams have punted more times: the Jets, Bears & Eagles. So it’s been a real “boom or bust” for Big Ben and that group. Other than the 4-point win over Baltimore and a 3-point win over Tennessee, Pittsburgh has faced only one other team with a winning record (Cleveland). They struggled to beat Dallas a couple weeks ago. Remember that all this has been just as disruptive to them. Take the points. Play on BALTIMORE AAA |
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12-01-20 | Michigan State v. Duke OVER 152 | Top | 75-69 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 23 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER We get a Top 10 battle Tuesday night with Duke hosting Michigan State. The Blue Devils have definitely had the Spartans number through the years, winning eight of the nine head to head meetings. Both teams struggled to hold onto big leads in their last game and turnovers have been an ongoing issue as well. We expect this to turn into a bit of a shootout. Duke let Coppin State make 10 three-pointers on Saturday. Michigan State obviously possesses a much better shot-making ability than Coppin State. They’ve scored 80 in both games with the Over being 2-0. Duke is no slouch offensively either as Coach K’s charges made 53.1% of its shots in the first game. When these teams played last year, it was all Blue Devils in an 87-75 win that easily surpassed the 142.5 point O/U line. Lots of different names this go around, especially on the Duke side, but the firepower is still there. Play on OVER AAA |
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12-01-20 | Valparaiso v. Illinois-Chicago +2 | Top | 50-66 | Win | 100 | 19 h 53 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UIC Former Horizon League enemies meeting here. Even though Valparaiso is now in the Missouri Valley Conference, there should still be a sense of “rivalry” when they meet Illinois-Chicago on Tuesday, particularly on the UIC side of things. UIC has lost 10 straight times to Valpo. Though it’s a whole new group of players, they should come out highly motivated to end that win streak. The Flames are 2-0 thus far, both close wins. They beat Northern Illinois by four and Central Michigan by two, so it’s too bad they aren’t in the MAC! Valpo lost its only game, 77-71 at Vanderbilt, as they blew a five-point lead with just under six minutes to go. UIC did lead Central Michigan by double digits at halftime, so they were in control throughout, even if the final score doesn’t really indicate that. Both teams have done a good job defensively so far, but winning on the road might be too great of an ask for a young Valpo team right now. They may also be looking forward to a date with Purdue later this week. UIC has won 24 of its last 35 home games while Valpo has lost 19 of its last 28 away from home. Play on UIC AAA |
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12-01-20 | Nebraska-Omaha v. Creighton -19 | Top | 67-94 | Win | 100 | 17 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CREIGHTON City pride is at stake here with Omaha taking on Creighton. Omaha comes in as the decided underdog - and for good reason. The Mavericks are 1-2 so far this year and have failed to cover seven straight times against teams with winning records. Creighton is off a win, 69-58 over North Dakota State, which is their only game played to date. Nebraska-Omaha’s only win to this point was by a single point, 60-59 over Middle Tennessee. That came on the heels of a six-point loss to Austin Peay and right before a 12-point loss to Abilene Christian. Despite the questionable status of Creighton’s Denzel Mahoney (COVID-19), we think the Bluejays win this one going away as they are the #9 ranked team in the country right now. Preseason Big East Player of the Year Marcus Zegarowski shot just 2 of 11 against North Dakota State. He should have a much better shooting night here. Omaha has made just 18.2% of its three-point attempts thus far, which is horrendous. Play on CREIGHTON AAA |
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11-30-20 | Seahawks -5.5 v. Eagles | Top | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 36 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SEATTLE The Seahawks and Eagles are very much “birds of a different feather” as the former comes with a 7-3 mark on the season while the latter is 3-6-1. But true to the insanity that is 2020, both could end up being division champs when all is said and done! That said, Seattle is so much better and should easily be able to take advantage of a wounded (and struggling) Philly team tonight. The Eagles just found out they’ll be without Lane Johnson for the rest of the year, which is a major loss. It’s not as if they were playing all that well with their top offensive lineman on the field anyway. This is an offense that struggles to score and Wentz seems to have really regressed. Completion percentage and passer rating are both career lows right now while he leads the league with 18 turnovers. Seattle’s defense, which had been a sore spot for them, has recently improved thanks to the return of Jamal Adams and the arrival of Carlos Dunlap. They just held the Rams and Cardinals to a combined 44 points. One group having no problems is the Seattle offense, which averages 31.8 points/game. Not only is Russell Wilson 5-0 all-time vs. Philly, the Seahawks have covered every game. Wilson is 23-12-1 ATS in his career in primetime games. Play on SEATTLE AAA |
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11-30-20 | Eastern Kentucky v. Xavier -15.5 | Top | 96-99 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* on XAVIER Xavier opened its season with a convincing 101-49 win against Oakland. Since then, the Musketeers have had two close calls against Bradley and Toledo. They were able to win both - but only by a combined four points - and thus it was 0-2 ATS. Eastern Kentucky is off to a 2-0 start and has covered both of its games, but there’s a big difference from those first two opponents (N Florida, Charleston So) to the team they face today. The Colonels are just 1-6 ATS the last seven times they’ve been a road underdog of 12.5 or more points. Concerning for EKU is the fact they’ve shot 35% in both games so far. Xavier is allowing a 31.2 field goal percentage thus far, so it figures to be a very low-scoring game for the underdogs here. Xavier opponents are shooting less than 30% on 2-pt attempts, which ranks 4th in the country, and EKU is shooting just 16% from three-point range. Should be an easy one for the Musketeers. Play on XAVIER AAA |
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11-30-20 | Chattanooga -6 v. Tennessee Tech | Top | 62-54 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CHATTANOOGA We’ve got an in-state battle from the Volunteer State with Chattanooga opening its season proper against 0-1 Tennessee Tech. Tennessee Tech had little chance of winning their first game. They were big underdogs against Indiana and did even worse than expected, losing by 30. Chattanooga’s first game was a glorified exhibition as they defeated Lander College 99-63 a few days ago. The Mocs are 21-8 ATS on the road the previous two seasons so we believe the SoCon representation should perform well tonight. The last time these schools played, it was an 11-point home victory for Chattanooga. This was a 20-win team last season. They have eight guys back plus added some good-looking transfers. Tennessee Tech won only 9 games in 2019-20 and four of those came late in the year. Of the last 51 times that the Golden Eagles have been an underdog, they’ve won just nine times. So we will lay a short number. Play on CHATTANOOGA AAA |
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11-29-20 | Bears v. Packers -8.5 | Top | 25-41 | Win | 100 | 22 h 6 m | Show |
This is an 8* on GREEN BAY The Bears are one of several NFL teams this week really hurting at the QB position. Truth be told, it hasn’t mattered all season who they’ve had under center. Both Nick Foles and Mitch Trubisky have really stunk up the joint. Now Foles is hurt so Trubisky is being called back into duty this week. Trubisky has had his own injury issues as well. Really, it’s a minor miracle that Chicago is 5-5 entering this game. They have lost four straight while averaging less than 16 points/game. In case you needed to be reminded, Green Bay does not have any issues at quarterback. Aaron Rodgers, who has a 16-2 TD-INT ratio the last five weeks, has dominated the Bears throughout his career. He’s 19-5 against them. With the Packers 5-0 ATS off a loss under Matt LaFleur, expect them to get off to a fast start Sunday night. Play on GREEN BAY AAA |
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11-29-20 | Saints -6 v. Broncos | Top | 31-3 | Win | 100 | 45 h 16 m | Show |
Note: This play was released and written up prior to the announcement on Denver's QB situation. Play still stands. This is a 10* on NO Taysom Hill is 1-0 as a starter after leading the Saints to a 24-9 victory over Atlanta last week. The offense gained 378 total yards, which is right on the team’s season average with Drew Brees at quarterback. Now the Falcons defense is pretty bad. But the Saints defense is REALLY good. The last three games they’ve allowed just 25 points. We don’t see them giving up very many this week against a Denver offense that is averaging just 18.2 points/game at home. The Broncos still have yet to be favored in a game all year. Obviously they’re not going to be favored here, even though they are off a 20-13 upset over Miami last week. But the Saints aren’t the Dolphins. When Denver hosted Kansas City earlier in the year, they lost 43-16. That’s what we’re looking at here. Hill showed us last week he can be winning quarterback in this league as he completed 78% of his passes. But the real strength of the Saints right now is the defense. By the way, lots of injuries on the Denver defense. Play on NEW ORLEANS AAA |
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11-29-20 | Cardinals -1 v. Patriots | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -114 | 42 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ARIZONA Arizona is 6-4 but off a 28-21 loss to Seattle. New England is also off a 7-point loss, 27-20 to Houston, but they are just 4-6. It is looking more and more likely that we are about to have an NFL Playoffs that doesn’t include the Patriots for just the second time since 2003. The sense of urgency for the Cardinals here is going to be greater due to the fact they have a much more realistic path to the playoffs. A loss here would not be good. An early start doesn’t seem to bother the Cards as they are 5-2 ATS in 1 PM ET games since Kliff Kingsbury took over. A key advantage for them this week is they’ve had a couple extra days to prepare as they played on Thursday last week. New England has covered the spread in just two of its previous seven games. Against the Jets was the only time in that stretch where they topped 23 points. Arizona averages 28.7 points/game and had hit 30 in each of the five games before facing Seattle. The Patriots allow 6.2 yards/play (30th) and 8.4 yards per pass play (last). Cardinals QB Kyler Murray will have a field day here. Play on ARIZONA AAA |
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11-29-20 | Giants -6 v. Bengals | Top | 19-17 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the GIANTS The Giants should consider themselves quite fortunate. They play in the NFC East where no team has more than four wins. Now they get to face Cincinnati a week after Joe Burrow suffered a season-ending knee injury. The Bengals just aren’t going to do much offensively in this game with Brandon Allen or Ryan Finley at QB (Allen expected to start). Cincinnati has scored just 19 points its last two games and didn’t score at all after Burrow left last week. That was against a Washington team that the Giants have beaten twice in 2020. While the G-Men are just 1-7 SU in their other eight games, they are 7-3 ATS overall including 5-0 on the road. They’ve been one of the best teams to bet on this NFL season. Coming off a bye and facing a wounded opponent, we expect them to play their finest game of the season here. You could argue they played their best game two weeks ago when they beat Philadelphia 27-17. More bad news for the Bengals: Not only is Burrow out, their top two running backs are injured as well! Play on NY GIANTS AAA |
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11-29-20 | Titans v. Colts OVER 51.5 | Top | 45-26 | Win | 100 | 42 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 9* on the OVER The Titans and Colts meet for a second time in three weeks. Last time, on a Thursday night in Nashville, the Colts. They shut Tennessee out in the second half, which is quite the achievement, and the game really turned on a blocked punt that was returned for a touchdown. While the Colts probably can’t count on scoring another special teams touchdown this week, they also probably can’t count on shutting the Titans out for a half. That has us on the Over. The good news for the Colts is that they have scored 31 or more in four of the last five games. Tennessee always scores a lot with Ryan Tannehill manning the offensive ship. The 17 points against the Colts were a season-low for the Titans. They average 27.9 points/game for the year. Then there’s this gem: Tannehill is 17-3 Over his last 20 starts including 8-2 this season. The Colts defensive line, which has been such a strength this season, is depleted due to COVID. So Derrick Henry should have a big game as he wears the defense down late (as per usual). Play on OVER AAA |
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11-29-20 | Giants v. Bengals UNDER 44.5 | Top | 19-17 | Win | 100 | 42 h 12 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the UNDER We also like the Under in this game. Go to the writeup on the side and see all the reasons we cited why we don’t think the Bengals will score much here. Cliff notes: Joe Burrow is out for the season and the two top running backs are injured. (Gio Bernard MAY play after suffering a concussion last week). The Bengals have scored a total of 19 points the last two weeks and didn’t score any after Burrow left the game last week. The Giants defense has been pretty good over the last month, never giving up more than 25 points. They’ve allowed 20 or less four of the last seven games and this is the weakest offense they’ll face all year. However, with the Giants scoring between 20 and 27 each of their last five games, we shouldn’t expect them to “go off” either. They’ve topped 23 in just two of the last seven games. This will be a low-scoring game and a blowout win for the Giants. Play on UNDER AAA |
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11-29-20 | Dolphins -6.5 v. Jets | Top | 20-3 | Win | 100 | 42 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MIAMI Miami’s run ended last week with a disappointing loss in Denver. Before suffering the 20-13 loss, they’d won and covered five in a row. While Tua Tagovailoa is questionable to start here (because of a thumb injury), Ryan Fitzpatrick has certainly proven himself to be a capable starter in this league. The team is 3-2 this year with Fitzpatrick as the starter and the two losses were to New England and Seattle. No matter who ends up playing QB for the Dolphins this week, we like them to win big. That’s because they are facing the winless Jets. At 0-10, it’s only a matter of time before Adam Gase gets fired. New York is a total dumpster fire right now. Sam Darnold is set to return, but that hardly matters at this point. The Dolphins shut the Jets out 24-0 earlier this year in the last game Fitzpatrick started. While the Jets have stayed within eight points of three of their last four opponents, they won’t do so here. Miami has a really good defense that will keep the Jets under its YTD scoring average of 14.9 points/game. Play on MIAMI AAA |
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11-29-20 | Devin Clark v. Anthony Smith -130 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SMITH We’ve got a new main event for tonight’s UFC card with the Blaydes-Lewis fight being the latest victim of COVID-19 cancellations. It will be Anthony Smith taking on Devin Clark in a battle of light heavyweights (205 lbs). Clark was originally supposed to face Shamil Gamzatov, but that fight was nixed due to Gamzatov having visa issues. So in steps Smith, who is the favorite despite losing three of his last four fights. But consider the caliber of competition he’s been up against. One of those three losses was to Jon Jones. Someone who previously was in the title mix should not have much trouble taking care of Clark, who is just 6-4 and never proven himself to be a legit contender in the division. All Clark’s UFC wins have been by decision and it’s very unlikely that he could produce a finish here. What likely ends up happening is that Smith wears Clark down over the course of the fight and wins via judge’s decision. But don’t rule out a knockout either as Smith is the superior striker here. Play on ANTHONY SMITH AAA |
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11-28-20 | Nevada v. Hawaii OVER 60 | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 46 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER Nevada is 5-0 and leading the Mountain West Conference. By the time this game kicks Saturday night, either San Jose State or Boise State (both 4-0) will be tied with them for first place. The Wolf Pack look to stay in front when they make a trip out to Honolulu to face 2-3 Hawaii, who just faced Boise State. A 40-32 loss to the Broncos was the second time in three weeks that a Hawaii game had 72 total points scored. It was also the fourth straight game where the Warriors gave up more than 30 points. They are giving up 36.5 per game at home. Nevada is scoring 32.2 so they should definitely do their part in getting this one to the total. QB Carson Strong has thrown for 340+ yards in four of the five games. So this Over boils down to the Hawaii offense. Nevada has not faced many good offenses thus far. Hawaii has topped 30 three of its five games with the two exceptions being against two good defensive teams (San Diego State, Wyoming). Two home games have seen the Warriors score 71 points so far. Both teams likely hit 30 here. The Over is 21-8 the last 29 instances of Hawaii being a home dog and its 6-0 when they are off a straight up loss. Play on OVER AAA |
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11-28-20 | Montana v. USC -11.5 | Top | 62-76 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* on USC USC already has a game under its belt and it didn’t really go as well as expected. They were still victorious mind you, but needed overtime to defeat Cal Baptist by a score of 95-87. They didn’t even come close to covering the number, which was -18.5. But what that close call does for us here is provide some value. We certainly expected the Trojans to be favored by more against Montana, who has yet to play in 2020. What hurt USC Wednesday night was the fact Cal Baptist went 20 of 41 from three-point range. The Trojans were just 5 of 19 from distance. That kind of discrepancy shouldn’t exist again tonight. You’d expect USC to be the better three-point shooting team. Or maybe they don’t have to be considering they made 32 of 47 two-point attempts in that first game! Montana is just 3-12 ATS as a road underdog of 9.5 to 12 points. The Grizzlies lost almost all of their offensive production from last season and are really going to struggle early on. Play on USC AAA |
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11-28-20 | Auburn +24.5 v. Alabama | Top | 13-42 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 27 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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11-28-20 | South Alabama v. Arkansas State UNDER 64 | Top | 38-31 | Loss | -109 | 21 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 9* on the UNDER This is just too high of a total when one of the teams has gone Under in six straight and only averages 20.1 points/game. The team in question is South Alabama, who is 3-6 and just dropped its 4th straight last week, 31-14 to Georgia State. The Jaguars haven’t topped 17 points in any of those last four contests. Now this week’s opponent - Arkansas State - is very much a “bird of a different feather.” They are scoring 31.4 points while giving up 39.6. There have been three games this year where the Red Wolves have scored 45 or more. One of those was last week. But last week was also the fourth game where they gave up at least 45 and they lost 47-45 to Texas State. Something is going to have to give this week in the Sun Belt. Before last week’s 47-45 loss, ASU’s last games saw 47, 48 and 62 combined points scored. They scored just 20, 10 and 17. By the way, Arkansas State is also 3-6 and on a four-game losing streak. So while we’re tempted to simply say this winds up being more of a “South Alabama” game, it’s really more indicative of where both teams are at. Can’t see both getting to 30 or one getting to 40. Play on UNDER AAA |
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11-28-20 | North Texas v. UTSA -2 | Top | 17-49 | Win | 100 | 21 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 9* on UTSA UTSA has gotten in a lot more games than North Texas. This will be the Roadrunners’ 11th game of the season. Entering this weekend, only Texas State has played more. North Texas has played only six games including just one over the last month. That one was played last week and was a 27-17 win over Rice. It was their second straight win after three straight losses. Besides Rice, they’ve beaten a very bad Middle Tennessee team and Houston Baptist, a FCS program. UTSA is 6-4 on the year and has won three of four. They are off a 23-20 win at Southern Miss and now return home where they’ve gone 4-1 SU. Another pertinent trend is that UTSA has won the last seven times it has been favored, four of those games coming this year. North Texas, who trailed 10-0 last week, has a poor defense. The Mean Green are giving up 520.5 yards/game. That is a LOT. They did a good job stopping the run against Rice last week, but UTSA has 521 yards rushing in its last two games. The North Texas secondary was also shredded for 327 yards last week. UTSA always gets it done as a favorite so we’ll happily lay this short number. Play on UTSA AAA |
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11-28-20 | Maryland +12 v. Indiana | Top | 11-27 | Loss | -104 | 18 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MARYLAND Indiana is the only 5-0 ATS team in the country. But they are coming off their first loss of the year, in a high-profile situation, to #3 Ohio State. Considering they were almost three touchdown underdogs in Columbus, we’d say the Hoosiers played well in a 42-35 loss. Well, except for the run game, which produced -1 yard. The bottom line though is IU’s “bubble” was burst and this looks like a classic hangover spot against a Maryland team that already has two upset wins to its credit. The Terrapins have beaten Minnesota as a 17.5 point underdog and then Penn State as a 27.5 point underdog. So an outright win Saturday definitely isn’t out of the realm of possibility. Unlike Indiana, who is one week removed from a loss to Ohio State, Maryland has been off for two weeks. So the schedule really favors them here. The reason for having those last two weeks off - cancellations vs. Michigan State and Ohio State - should be obvious at this point (COVID). But even though he’s been forced to coach virtually these last two weeks, coach Locksley feels his team is ready. Indiana was down 28 last week and this is just the third time they’ve been favored in 2020. Play on MARYLAND AAA |
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11-27-20 | Oregon v. Oregon State OVER 64 | Top | 38-41 | Win | 100 | 52 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Oregon is undefeated heading into “The Civil War.” In a normal year, that would be quite the achievement. But in 2020, it means that the Ducks are “only” 3-0. They underperformed last weekend in a game they were favored to win by 18.5 points. They beat UCLA by just three points (38-35) and needed to force four turnovers to do so. Turnovers have been an issue for the Ducks as well as they’ve given it away six times in three games. Yet they are still averaging 38.7 points/game. They failed to run the ball effectively last week (just 88 yards on 34 attempts), but that should change this week in a game where they are basically a two touchdown favorite on the road. Oregon State has twice given up more than 200 yards rushing this year. They didn’t last week and won for the first time, beating Cal 31-27. The Beavers offense has been pretty consistent thus far, averaging 26.7 points and they’ve been between 21 and 31 in all three games. Along with what Oregon figures to score on Friday, that should be enough to propel this one Over the total. The Over is 13-4-1 the past 18 meetings and 4-0 the last four times Oregon has been a road favorite. Play on OVER AAA |
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11-27-20 | Notre Dame -4.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 31-17 | Win | 100 | 48 h 27 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NOTRE DAME Notre Dame is 8-0 and #2 in the initial College Football Playoff rankings. They’ve already beaten Clemson, so they are really in the driver’s seat right now. North Carolina is going to be the toughest remaining test before the ACC Championship Game, however we think the Tar Heels are getting too much respect in this Top 25 battle. While UNC can put up a ton of points (they average 43.1 per game), so can Notre Dame (37.6 PPG). The difference is the Tar Heels defense also gives up a ton. They are allowing over 30 points/game and the last time we saw them they gave up 53, not to mention almost 750 total yards, to Wake Forest. The Heels were behind by as much as three touchdowns in that game, which was at home. Considering how the Fighting Irish have put up at least 42 points in four of the last six games, Ian Book and the offense should have a big game Friday. Notre Dame’s defense is #1 in the ACC at stopping the run. North Carolina’s defense has allowed more than 200 yards rushing in three different games! Uh oh. Here’s the kicker(s): ND has won its last 10 games as a road favorite (6-3-1 ATS) plus they are 10-0 SU the L10 times they’ve been a favorite (home or away) of 3.5 to 10 points, also going 8-1-1 ATS. Play on NOTRE DAME AAA |
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11-27-20 | Iowa State v. Texas +1.5 | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -115 | 45 h 57 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TEXAS Texas is the play here as the Lonnghorns face Iowa State in a ranked showdown. Although only 2-4-1 ATS, UT is 5-2 SU with one of those two losses coming to Oklahoma in overtime. Incredibly, three of the ‘Horns’ seven games have gone to OT. They have not played in three weeks due to a scheduled bye (last week) and an unscheduled bye two weeks ago (Kansas game postponed due to COVID). So they should be well rested and prepared for an Iowa State team that’s coming off a 45-0 win over Kansas State last weekend. The size of that victory has obviously influenced bettors' perception of the Cyclones, but before we go giving them too much credit, be aware that Kansas State has devolved into a total mess since losing QB Thompson for the season. They are also a team that’s been severely impacted, in a negative way, by COVID. We really like the fact that this line has “jumped the fence” and that Texas is now a slight home dog. That’s great value for a game where we projected them to be a field goal favorite. Iowa State is 2-5 ATS its last seven chances as a road favorite of three points or less. The Cyclones lost at home to Louisiana, never led at Oklahoma State and while they did beat Oklahoma, they trailed almost the entire game. Play on TEXAS AAA |
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11-26-20 | Washington Football Team v. Cowboys OVER 45.5 | Top | 41-16 | Win | 100 | 49 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Washington and Dallas played five weeks ago and the Football Team emerged victorious by a score of 25-3. That may have been the low point of the season for the Cowboys. Backup Andy Dalton left the game with a concussion, rendering the offense helpless. But Dalton was back last week and led the team to a surprising 31-28 upset of the Vikings. A good sign moving forward is that Ezekiel Elliott had his first 100+ yard rushing game of the season. Dallas definitely will score more their second time facing the Washington defense. But of course their own defense remains a problem. It is giving up 31.8 points/game and has surrendered no fewer than 23 for nine straight contests. Washington is off a 20-9 win over Cincinnati and has looked really good over the last six quarters with Alex Smith playing QB. However, there is one caveat we’ve got to mention in regards to last week. The defense got real lucky with Bengals rookie Joe Burrow getting hurt. In the first half, Washington's defense didn’t force a single punt. The Over is 8-2 in the L10 meetings between these teams and 5-0 here in Dallas. Even though this is a battle of 3-7 teams on Thanksgiving, first place in the NFC East is on the line. The game will belong to the two offenses. Play on OVER AAA |
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11-26-20 | Auburn -7.5 v. St. Joe's | Top | 96-91 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on AUBURN This game is in Fort Myers, very much on the “undercard” of Gonzaga-Kansas. Auburn went 25-6 a year ago. St. Joe’s was 6-26. Auburn is very much a program in “turmoil” right now. Not only did they lose their top six players from last season, but they are also a part of an ongoing FBI investigation. Still, we see no reason why we shouldn’t lay the points in this matchup. They are still a long and athletic team. St. Joe’s returns a lot more from last year, but that was a bad team (see record above). The Hawks are being picked to finish near the bottom of the Atlantic 10 again and aren’t going to be that improved in 2020-21. Because of the self-imposed postseason ban that was imposed earlier this week, we’re getting value on Auburn as bettors are seemingly willing to write this team off. That’s a mistake in our eyes. They are 7-1 ATS L8 neutral site games while St. Joseph’s is 1-3-1 ATS its last five. This number has come down much too far and Auburn is now a 10* play for us. Play on AUBURN AAA |
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11-26-20 | Gonzaga v. Kansas OVER 149.5 | Top | 102-90 | Win | 100 | 5 h 16 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER Gonzaga and Kansas would have been two of the favorites to win the NCAA Tournament that was never played last March. The Zags were 31-2 and had already won the WCC Tournament when the season was paused. Kansas was 28-3 (Big 12 Tournament never played, on a 16-game win streak, and many thought they were the best team in the country. These two “blue-bloods” open the 2020-21 season against one another in Fort Myers. Gonzaga has won 30 or more games six of the last nine seasons including each of the last four. Some feel this is Mark Few’s best team ever. They are going to average a lot of points. Florida transfer Andrew Nembhard’s transfer was just granted (he can play immediately), so the roster is even more talented. Gonzaga averaged 87.4 points/game last season. Compared to last season, Kansas isn’t going to be as strong defensively as they were a year ago, due to a couple departures. The Jayhawks have gone Over five straight times as a neutral site underdog. Play on OVER AAA |
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11-26-20 | Texans -2.5 v. Lions | Top | 41-25 | Win | 100 | 45 h 44 m | Show |
This is an 8* on HOUSTON Detroit was just putrid last week in a 20-0 loss to Carolina. The offense was held below 200 yards as it gained just 3.4 yards per play. They had only 10 first downs for the game! There has to be some real doubt about Matt Patricia’s future as the head coach. That’s going to have an effect on the team’s motivation down the stretch. The Lions are 13-28-1 SU since he took over. The Panthers team that shut them out on Sunday was without its starting QB Teddy Bridgewater and star RB Christian McCaffery. PJ Walker, making his first ever NFL start, threw for 258 yards against the Lions defense. Injuries and COVID-19 have left the Lions short-handed on both sides of the ball. So look for the Texans to take advantage in this early Thanksgiving Day battle. We cashed Houston in a 27-20 win over the Patriots on Sunday as they improved to 3-7 on the year. With the likes of Deshaun Watson and JJ Watt, the Texans certainly look more formidable than the Panthers team that just embarrassed the Lions. Watson threw for 344 yards against the Patriots, his 5th 300-plus yard game of the season, and has a 11-0 TD-INT ratio the last five weeks. The Lions’ pass defense, as we saw last week against a 1st time starter, is poor. They rank 25th in the league, giving up 258.4 yards/game. Watt and the Texans defense were solid last week in allowing just 86 yards rushing. The Lions are just 4-12 on Thanksgiving since 2004 with eight losses by 10 or more. They are also on a 1-4 SU/ATS run as home underdogs of three points or less. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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11-25-20 | Clemson -4 v. Mississippi State | Top | 53-42 | Win | 100 | 21 h 53 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CLEMSON When you think Clemson and Mississippi State, College FOOTBALL is probably what comes to mind. But these Power 5 schools will open the NCAAB season against each other on Wednesday. This is part of the Space Coast Challenge in Melbourne, FL. It replaces the cancelled Cancun Classic. Clemson is the more experienced side coming into the year, but it’s the arrival of highly touted freshman PJ Hall that has Tigers fans most excited. Hall was the #1 high school player in the state of South Carolina, so he was a huge “get” for the program. Though Miss State has put together three consecutive 20+ win seasons, they bring back just four players and one of them didn’t see significant minutes last season. Clemson actually allowed fewer points per game a year ago and has revenge for a loss two years ago to the Bulldogs on a neutral floor. Take Clemson to win. Play on CLEMSON AAA |
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11-25-20 | Atalanta v. Liverpool -153 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -153 | 16 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 9* on LIVERPOOL Two of Europe’s elite meet again on Wednesday as Liverpool looks for a repeat of what happened the first go around. Back on matchday three, the Premier League side smashed the contingent from Serie A, 5-0, dealing Atalanta its worst ever home European defeat. Considering the recent form flashed the reigning EPL Champs, it’s certainly difficult to see them losing this week. They just downed Leicester City 3-0 over the weekend, a really impressive victory for sure. The Reds are again tied for the Premier League lead and have won all three of their group games here in the UCL without conceding a goal. They are 5-1-0 their last six in all competitions. A win here would clinch a spot in the knockout stage and considering they’ve gone 54 straight matches without losing inside 90 minutes here at Anfield, we like their chances. Atalanta just hasn’t looked like themselves recently as they’ve won just once in the last six tries while averaging just a single goal per game. That won’t cut it here. Play on LIVERPOOL AAA |
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11-25-20 | St. Mary's +8 v. Memphis | Top | 56-73 | Loss | -112 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ST MARYS St. Mary’s and Memphis are two “mid-major” programs accustomed to success, but there’s a lot of new faces on both rosters to start the 2020-21 campaign. Memphis saw two of its standouts from last year get taken in the Top 20 picks of the NBA Draft last week. They return just four upperclassmen, none of them seniors. St. Mary’s also loses the bulk of its production (72% of scoring) from last year’s squad. But we’re more confident in the Gaels “figuring things out” in this first game in South Dakota, part of the Bad Boy Mowers Crossover Classic. It seems as if every year St. Mary’s wins more than 20 games and last year was no exception as they finished 26-8 and would have made the NCAA Tournament. Memphis has a player out because of COVID contact tracing and another transfer has yet to be ruled eligible. The Tigers are too young to trust laying this many points in the early going. Last year’s team had a losing record away from home and averaged just 64.5 points in those games. Play on ST. MARYS AAA |
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11-25-20 | North Dakota v. Miami-OH -6 | Top | 67-81 | Win | 100 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI OH Miami Ohio opens its season with a visit from North Dakota and we see this being an easy cover for the RedHawks, who played well in Oxford a season ago. Especially on the defensive end where they limited opponents to 40.7% shooting. North Dakota could not claim the same sort of defensive prowess. The Fighting Hawks gave up 75.5 points/game last year and an even higher number on the road. The season ended in ugly fashion with an 89-53 defeat at the hands of North Dakota State in the Summit League Tournament. Never did the Fighting Hawks win more than two straight games during the 2019-20 campaign. They're not about to start this year with a win either. Both teams lost their star guard, but Miami returns four starters. Play on MIAMI OHIO AAA |
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11-23-20 | Rams v. Bucs -4 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -108 | 35 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 7* on TB We’ve got a big game in the NFC Monday night with the 7-3 Bucs hosting the 6-3 Rams. Both teams had impressive wins last week. Tampa Bay pummeled poor Carolina 46-23 and finished with a substantial 544-187 edge in total yardage. Just as impressive was the Rams defense which held Seattle to only 16 points. When handicapping this matchup, it’s important to remember that the Bucs are 7-1 against everybody besides the Saints. That other loss was by a single point at Chicago and they probably should have won that game. The Rams are 4-0 against the horrible NFC East and 2-3 vs.everyone else. As impressive as beating Seattle was, that was a familiar foe at home. The Rams are 4-0 at home, but just 2-3 on the road (sense a pattern?). Left tackle Andre Whitworth got hurt last week and is going to miss the last six weeks. That’s a big loss for the Rams. Their offense has scored 24 points or less four of the last five games. Tom Brady and the Bucs have scored 38 or more in four of their last seven. Though 0-3 ATS in primetime this season, this one sets up well for Tampa Bay. The Rams defense forced three turnovers vs. Seattle. Don’t see that happening again. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA |
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11-22-20 | Chiefs -6.5 v. Raiders | Top | 35-31 | Loss | -100 | 108 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* on KANSAS CITY This is a big revenge game for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. Back in Week 5 they lost to the Raiders 40-32. Going by the pointspread (KC was -10 in that game), that’s the biggest upset of the NFL season so far. Chiefs coach Andy Reid clearly hasn’t forgotten, going so far as to point out the fact the Raiders took a “victory lap” (in their team bus) around the stadium following the upset. Though it has won and covered three in a row, Las Vegas is not well positioned for this rematch as 10 of the 11 players currently on the reserve/COVID-19 list are from the defensive side of the ball. Mahomes should have a big night as the Raiders are already giving up nearly 28 points/game at home. Reid is 14-7 ATS in his coaching career coming out of a bye week and Mahomes is 11-5 ATS in division games. So it’s a good spot for the favorite that has already covered 22 of the last 32 times they’ve been asked to lay points on the road. The Raiders, despite their 6-3 SU record, have been outgained this season. Over the past 20 seasons, if a double digit division dog wins the first meeting of the season outright, they are just 5-9 ATS the second time around. The Chiefs have won six games by at least nine points so far and their average margin of victory is 11.5 points/game. Play on KANSAS CITY AAA |
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11-22-20 | Packers +2.5 v. Colts | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -120 | 48 h 1 m | Show |
This is an 8* on GREEN BAY Like New England-Houston, this Green Bay-Indianapolis line also flipped. The Packers were favored on the look ahead line, but not anymore after they struggled to beat Jacksonville last week while the Colts beat the Titans 34-17. We’ll take advantage of the value we’re now getting with the Packers, who are 4-1 ATS on the road this season. That’s the second best cover percentage in the league. Under Matt LaFleur the Pack have gone 5-1 ATS as a regular season road underdog and all five covers were also outright wins. Green Bay is also the first team in NFL history to average more than 30 points through nine games while turning it over five or fewer times. They haven’t failed to cover back to back games all season either. Aaron Rodgers has averaged almost 300 yards passing his last four games indoors and won them all. Play on GREEN BAY AAA |
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11-22-20 | Cowboys v. Vikings UNDER 48 | Top | 31-28 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 9* on UNDER The Cowboys are having a season to forget as they are 2-7 straight up and 1-8 against the spread. For a while there, the Vikings seemed to be on a similar trajectory. But they have rallied for three consecutive wins and covers to get to 4-5 SU and 6-3 ATS. The most recent win came Monday night, 19-13 over the Bears. The next three weeks (including this one) have Minnesota playing at home and they figure to be a strong favorite in every game. But we would be wary of laying this many points with a team playing on a short week, especially considering Dallas is off its bye. The ‘Boys did show some life two weeks ago vs. Pittsburgh, but still scored only 19 points. That’s the most they’ve scored in the four games since Dak Prescott went down with an injury. All four of those games have gone Under. We don't think the return of Andy Dalton will matter much. We already mentioned that the Vikings are off a low-scoring game themselves. Mike Zimmer will probably play this one "close to the vest" as he isn’t likely to pull out many tricks. The Under is 10-4 in Dallas’ last 14 games as a road underdog. Play on UNDER AAA |
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11-22-20 | San Jose v. Sporting KC -143 | Top | 3-3 | Loss | -143 | 15 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SPORTING KC Top seeded Sporting KC will meet San Jose in the first round of the MLS’ Western Conference playoffs. These sides actually did not play in the regular season. Not like San Jose is going to complain about that. They had to overcome a sluggish start to the season just to get into the playoffs. Sporting KC was strong down the stretch, losing only one of the last seven matches. They head into the playoffs having kept three consecutive clean sheets to conclude the regular season. San Jose’s regular season finale saw them get dealt a 4-1 defeat by Real Salt Lake, who failed to even qualify for the postseason.This is a single elimination tournament and we can’t see the top seed losing in the first round. They were 12-3-6 in the regular season compared to 8-6-9 for San Jose. Can’t say that Sporting KC’s +13 goal differential is “dominant,” but the Earthquakes -16 GD is pretty bad for a playoff team. It’s the worst GD of all the playoff teams. Sporting KC is 13-2-8 the past 23 meetings. Play on SPORTING KC AAA |
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11-22-20 | Patriots v. Texans +2.5 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 45 h 37 m | Show |
This is an 8* on HOUSTON This is one of a few games that saw the line “flip” early in the week. The look ahead line had Houston favored by 2.5, but things quickly changed once New England upset Baltimore last Saturday night. Now the Patriots are favored, a role they are quite accustomed to, but this isn’t your normal Bill Belichick team. Remember that they struggled to beat the winless Jets on the road and are just 4-5 SU on the season. They are 0-3 ATS this season against teams that have a losing record. They are also 0-4 ATS as a favorite of three points or fewer, losing all four games outright. That one goes back to last season. Houston hasn’t been very good this season and is just 2-7 ATS. But they are now a really good value compared to what the look ahead line for this game was. DeShaun Watson has not thrown an interception since Week 5. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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11-22-20 | Falcons v. Saints OVER 49 | Top | 9-24 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 37 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER So the Saints are going with Taysom Hill here, not Jameis Winston, in place of the injured Drew Brees. That was a surprise to some, but we’re going to trust Sean Payton knows what he’s doing. The Saints should still be able to score plenty against a Falcons defense that is giving up 27.9 points/game and doesn’t really know what to expect from Hill. Remember that New Orleans started this season by going Over in every one of the first seven games. Atlanta can score too; they’ve averaged just over 30 points/game since Raheem Morris took over. The Saints strength on defense is stopping the run. The Falcons aren’t likely to run the ball very much here as Matt Ryan is going to test the Saints secondary. This is a game where the winning side is likely to score 30 and we think the loser will score enough to get it over the hump. Play on OVER AAA |
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11-21-20 | Oklahoma State v. Oklahoma OVER 59 | Top | 13-41 | Loss | -109 | 28 h 0 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER Bedlam has seen Oklahoma go 11-4 ATS against Mike Gundy-led Oklahoma State teams. Most of those games have been high-scoring as well. Last year’s game, a 34-16 win by OU, was the fewest total points scored in Bedlam in a decade. This year both teams are ranked in the Top 18. Oklahoma, who suffered two early season losses, has now won four straight games. They are averaging 46.1 points/game for the season and hit 62 in the last two. Oklahoma State has only one loss, 41-34 to Texas, so a win here would really put them in the driver’s seat for the Big 12 Championship Game. But winning Saturday in Norman is going to require them to score a lot of points. Oklahoma’s defense has given up 37+ in three different games, so the Cowboys should score a lot. Whether it's enough for the outright win remains to be seen. But it will be enough to help send this game Over the total. The Over is already 15-5-1 in the Sooners previous 21 home games. Play on the OVER AAA |
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11-21-20 | Liberty +5.5 v. NC State | Top | 14-15 | Win | 100 | 28 h 9 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LIBERTY Liberty can’t get any respect. The Flames are 7-0 and ranked 21st in the country. But they are still underdogs to a 5-3 North Carolina State team this week. This despite having already beaten another ACC team, Virginia Tech, as a 17-point dog two weeks ago. We took Liberty plus the points there and will do the same here. NC State is lucky to even be 5-3. They got outgained in road wins against Pitt and Virginia. Two weeks ago they faced Miami and while that ended up being a close loss (44-41), the Wolfpack gave up over 600 total yards and were outgained severely. Oh yeah, they also lost to Virginia Tech -- by 21! NC State’s defense has already allowed 40+ points four different times. Liberty averages 42.3 points/game and while some of that can be attributed to weaker competition, they did score 38 against Va Tech. They are 7-2 ATS L9 vs. the ACC. We just don’t see them as the underdog in this matchup. NC State has failed to cover five of the last seven times it has been favored. Play on LIBERTY AAA |
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11-21-20 | Missouri -6 v. South Carolina | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 27 h 26 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MISSOURI South Carolina has a lot of problems right now. They just fired Will Muschamp. That drastic move came after three straight losses, all of which saw the Gamecocks give up 48+ points. Last week’s 59-42 loss at Ole Miss was apparently the “straw that broke the camel’s back.” The defense gave up over 700 yards! So Missouri, who is playing for the first time in three weeks, has to like its chances this week. The Tigers last game didn’t go so well either. They were beaten 41-17 by Florida on Halloween. But facing a team that has given up 159 points in three games and just fired its coach is what we call a “get-well” game. There’s way too much turmoil going on at South Carolina for interim coach Mike Bobo to have a successful debut. Bobo was the offensive coordinator under Muschamp, so he’s not going to get this defense fixed anytime soon. Look for Mizzou to achieve a season-high in points and earn itself a comfortable cover this week. Play on MISSOURI AAA |
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11-21-20 | Wisconsin -7.5 v. Northwestern | Top | 7-17 | Loss | -103 | 27 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WISCONSIN #10 Wisconsin being a road favorite here against #19 Northwestern says a lot. Since 2018, teams ranked in the top 15 have done very well (16-5 ATS) against opponents that are ranked, but outside the Top 15. That includes 5-0 ATS if the Top 15 team is on the road, which Wisconsin is here. That the Badgers are favored by this many points, despite being 1-5 ATS the L6 years vs. Northwestern with three outright losses, tells you what the oddsmakers think of this year’s matchup. Northwestern might be 4-0 in the Big 10 for the first time since ‘96, but three of their wins have been by single digits and they’ve been outgained twice. It’s a “phony” 4-0 record. Wisconsin just handed Michigan its worst home loss since 1935, 49-11, outgaining the Wolverines by nearly 250 total yards. We’re proud to say we had the Badgers last week in Ann Arbor. Despite being 2-0, the Badgers are still being underrated by the public, likely because they had two games called off because of COVID. But in the two games they have played they have put up 45 and 49 points, winning by 38 each time. We expect Wisconsin’s superiority to be on full display Saturday afternoon at Ryan Field as they once again roll to an easy win and cover. Play on WISCONSIN AAA |
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11-21-20 | Cincinnati v. Central Florida OVER 64 | Top | 36-33 | Win | 100 | 24 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 9* on the OVER #7 Cincinnati is undefeated (7-0) but about to embark on a three-game road trip. They better not take UCF too lightly this week. This will be the first time UCF is an underdog in a regular season game since 2017 (ends a 39-game streak). Though unranked, the Golden Knights are always a threat to put a ton of points on the board. They lead all of NCAAF in total offense with 619.1 yards/game. That’s close to an all-time single season record. UCF has averaged 44.3 points per gameduring their current three-game win streak. While Cincinnati’s defense is top 10 in yards allowed and top three in scoring, a big reason for that is they have not faced many good offenses. UCF will easily be the best offense they face all season. Lucky for Cincy then that they too are capable of putting up a ton of points. They put up 55 last week on East Carolina, which was the 4th straight game with 38 or more. We think both teams are going to hit 30 here, so that means a play on the Over, which is 4-1 the last five times that the Bearcats have been road favorites. Play on the OVER AAA |
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11-21-20 | Appalachian State v. Coastal Carolina -4 | Top | 23-34 | Win | 100 | 22 h 25 m | Show |
This is an 8* on COASTAL CAROLINA Coastal Carolina has been a favorite of ours for weeks now. They have treated us to multiple ATS wins, a 30-27 upset of Louisiana and 51-0 beatdown of Georgia State to name a couple. The Chanticleers deserve everyone’s respect as they are now 7-0 SU, 6-1 ATS on the season and ranked #15 in the country. This week they face perhaps the biggest remaining hurdle to an undefeated regular season, that being Appalachian State. But we’ll gladly lay the points again with CC as the game is in Conway and the home team is off a bye. Coastal Carolina wasn’t supposed to be off a bye here, but last week’s game vs. Troy got called off because of COVID. The extra week to prepare for a tough opponent is a big break for the Chanticleers. Meanwhile the situation for Appalachian State is not good. They are 0-3 ATS the L3 weeks and haven’t beaten a ranked opponent since their famous upset of Michigan back in 2007 (0-7 SU since then). Making things even worse is the uncertain status of QB Zac Thomas. Thomas left last week’s 17-13 win over Georgia State with an apparent case of whiplash. Even if Thomas were to play Saturday, it’s tough to like the Mountaineers here considering they trailed Georgia State when Thomas got hurt. This is Coastal Carolina’s year. Play on COASTAL CAROLINA AAA |
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11-21-20 | LSU +1 v. Arkansas | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 21 h 26 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LSU Arkansas’ unbeaten ATS run ended last week in emphatic fashion. They were thumped 63-35 by Florida, which was a reminder just how large of a gap still exists between the Razorbacks and the SEC’s elite. For the record, the Hogs were 6-0 ATS this year prior to facing Florida and had covered eight in a row going back to the end of 2019. That eight win streak started with a cover vs. LSU - but they were 39.5 point underdogs last season. LSU obviously isn’t the same team this year, but they should still be able to defeat Arkansas for a fifth straight time. The Tigers were spared a beating at the hands of Alabama last week as that game was claimed by COVID. They haven’t played since an ugly 48-11 loss to Auburn Halloween night. All that time to prepare should lead to a focused effort this week and hopefully the players affected by COVID will return. They are 7-1 ATS following an ATS loss. Arkansas has its own COVID-related issues with Sam Pittman forced to coach remotely. That will affect a team’s preparation as we saw last week when the Razorbacks defense gave up almost 600 total yards against Florida. LSU isn’t Florida, but they are still better than the Hogs. LSU scored at least 34 points in every game before losing to Auburn. Play on LSU AAA |
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11-20-20 | New Mexico v. Air Force UNDER 55.5 | Top | 0-28 | Win | 100 | 61 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER Air Force hosts New Mexico Friday night with both teams still looking for their first conference win. Air Force has won a game in 2020 as they shockingly beat Navy 40-7 in the season opener (were +6.5). But that was on October 3rd and the Falcons are 0-2 since. After a three-week layoff, they lost 17-6 to San Jose State, then the following week brought a 49-30 loss to Boise State. They are off another three-week layoff here. New Mexico is 0-3 and lost 12 straight games going back to last season. They can’t even play in Albuquerque with COVID concerns forcing them to relocate their home games to Las Vegas. The Lobos lost their Sin City debut last week, 27-20 against Nevada, but did at least cover the spread for a second consecutive game. In addition to the COVID-19 issues both teams have had to deal with this season, New Mexico and Air Force also enter this Friday night game with injury concerns at QB. It’s not like we’d expect much from either offense anyway. The Over has hit in seven straight meetings between these two schools, but the Under is 4-0 in New Mexico’s last four Friday games. Air Force is also 6-1 Under its last seven times it has been the favorite. Under is the call here. Play on UNDER AAA |
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11-20-20 | Purdue -3 v. Minnesota | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -106 | 59 h 12 m | Show |
This is an 8* on PURDUE Purdue is 2-1 but just suffered its first loss last Saturday. They came up short against Northwestern, losing 27-20 as 3.5-point home underdogs. That was painful for us as we had the Boilermakers. An inability to run the ball is what cost them. Running the ball here vs. Minnesota shouldn’t be a problem. The Golden Gophers have given up 181+ yards rushing in all four games and the 235 they allowed last week in a 35-7 loss to Iowa was only the THIRD most allowed in a game this season. So you shouldn’t be shocked to learn Minnesota is 1-3 on the year. Their lone win was against a bad Illinois team. They just haven’t looked right since the season started. Michigan, who obviously isn’t very good, blew them out. Then the Gophers lost as big favorites to a Maryland team that was off a 43-3 loss. Then came the 41-14 win over Illinois, which PJ Fleck hoped was the start of a turnaround. It wasn’t. Losing 35-7 at home to Iowa was a massive step back and the Golden Gophers have been outscored 84-31 in two games at TCF Bank Stadium. They’ve allowed 35+ points in all three losses this season. Purdue is 17-7 ATS off an ATS loss and has double revenge. They win. Play on PURDUE AAA |
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11-19-20 | Cardinals v. Seahawks -3 | Top | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 36 h 1 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SEATTLE We’ve got a three-way tie atop the NFC West with the Cardinals, Rams and Seahawks all 6-3. Seattle is trending in the wrong direction right now as they’ve lost back to back games for the first time this season. They are 1-4 ATS their L5 games. Arizona has already beaten Seattle once, in primetime no less (it was a Sunday night game), and comes off a thrilling 32-30 win over Buffalo where they completed a Hail Mary on the final play. They were obviously pretty lucky to win Sunday and truthfully were lucky to beat the Seahawks the first time too. They had to score at the end of regulation just to force OT. Seattle outgained them in that first contest 572-519 and never trailed until the game went final. Considering the Seahawks went off as the favorite at Arizona, they are looking like a really good value in the rematch. We’ll take them to win. Seattle hasn’t lost three in a row since the 2011 season. Arizona has trailed by at least 7 points each of the last three weeks. They were down 14 against Buffalo. It wasn’t too long ago that some considered the Seahawks the best team in the league. We’re not panicking over the recent results. Don’t see them losing again in an obvious revenge spot. Play on SEATTLE AAA |
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11-19-20 | Tulane v. Tulsa -6 | Top | 24-30 | Push | 0 | 35 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TULSA Tulane will arrive in Tulsa Thursday night on a 3-game SU win streak and a 5-game ATS win streak. But the teams they’ve been beating aren’t very good. Tulsa is now ranked #25 in the country, ending a decade-long absence from the polls. Their only loss this season was to Oklahoma State and they led that game going into the fourth quarter. They’ve since won four in a row including an upset of UCF. So we’ve got two hot teams from the American on the field Thursday night. We side with the Golden Hurricane as they are at home and have a defense that can stop the run. That latter part is huge when facing Tulane, who is 4-1 when rushing for 200+ yards this season. But Tulsa has yet to give up more than 151 yards rushing to any opponent. This is also a triple revenge spot for the Golden Hurricane, who has lost to Tulane three straight years. But none of those Tulsa teams won more than four games. This one is 4-1 SU. Tulane is 2-5 ATS the last seven times as a road underdog. One of those two covers was earlier this year (at UCF) as a 21-point dog (lost by 17). Tulsa has already beaten two teams (UCF, Houston) that beat Tulane by 17+. Play on TULSA AAA |
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11-18-20 | Western Michigan v. Central Michigan OVER 59.5 | Top | 52-44 | Win | 100 | 22 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER This game may very well end up deciding the MAC West. Both Western Michigan and Central Michigan are 2-0. After a 58-13 blowout win over Akron in the opener, Western Michigan pulled a rabbit out of the hat for us last week against Toledo. Central Michigan has also covered the spread in both of its wins, 30-27 over Ohio U (were underdogs) and 40-10 over Northern Illinois. Another constant for both teams is lots of scoring. Western Michigan has totaled 99 points in two games while Central Michigan has scored 70. The Western Michigan offense is averaging a stunning 8.0 yards/play, led by QB Kaleb Eleby, who is completing 71 percent of his passes. The Over is 5-0 in the Broncos previous 5 Wednesday games and 6-2-1 their last nine road games. The Over is also 6-1 in the Chippewas last 7 Wednesday games. Their offense has been no slouch either, averaging 5.7 yards per play. Here they go up against a defense that just gave up 500 yards last week. This should be a back and forth, high-scoring game. Play on OVER AAA |
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11-17-20 | Akron v. Kent State -25 | Top | 35-69 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* on KENT STATE Akron did play better than expected last week.They “only” lost by 14 to Ohio U. That a two-touchdown loss could be spun as a “success” (Zips easily covered the 27-point spread) should be a clear indication that this team is not good. They are probably one of the worst teams in the entire country. The loss to Ohio last Tuesday was their 19th straight, a streak which goes back to 2018. They were 0-12 SU a season ago. The Zips have failed to score more than 17 points in any of the last nine games. Such offensive (and overall) ineptitude is going to be a major problem facing rival Kent State this week.The Golden Flashes went just 2-10 SU in 2018. But unlike Akron, this program has turned things around. After winning five straight at the end of last year (including bowl), it’s a 2-0 start to 2020 that has seen the Flashes offense average 254 yards rushing and 295 yards passing! They put up 62 points last week on Bowling Green, a comparable team to Akron, and that was on the road. Akron’s defense has given up over 400 yards rushing in its two games.Last year, the Kent State defense held the Zips to three points in a 23-point win. This year’s matchup figures to be even more lopsided. It’s a team that’s 7-0 SU/6-1 ATS hosting a team that’s 0-19 SU/4-15 ATS its L19. A complete mismatch here. Play on KENT STATE AAA |
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11-16-20 | Vikings -2.5 v. Bears | Top | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 164 h 22 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MINNESOTA The Vikings have a real shot at erasing a poor 1-5 start to the season. They’re now 3-5 following wins over the Packers and Lions and after this week, they SHOULD be favored to win three consecutive home games (Dallas, Carolina, Jacksonville). The Bears are headed in the opposite direction as they were once 5-1, but have now lost three in a row. They have averaged just 16.7 points during the losing skid while the defense has given up 24.7. No longer can the defense carry this miserable offense in Chicago. Mitchell Trubisky wasn’t the answer at QB and Nick Foles isn’t either. There aren’t any other options right now. The big storyline for this game will be Kirk Cousins’ 0-9 record on Monday Night Football, but he’s better than what the Bears have at QB. Plus, Cousins has the luxury handing the ball off to Dalvin Cook, who has run for 369 yards the last two weeks with five touchdowns. The Bears rushing attack averages just 82 yards/game and they are 31st in third down success rate. The Vikings are 5-1 ATS L6 games and 40-22-1 ATS as favorites under Mike Zimmer. They continue their march back to .500. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |
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11-16-20 | Vikings v. Bears OVER 44.5 | Top | 19-13 | Loss | -109 | 164 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER It’s a low total this week on Monday Night Football, but that shouldn’t be a surprise with the Bears involved. They haven’t scored more than 23 points in a game since that improbable come from behind win over the Falcons back in Week 3. But in all fairness, they’ve been facing some strong defenses. Minnesota has allowed 20 or more in every game and 29.3 per game for the season. We don’t think the Bears will hit that latter number here, but they’ll certainly score enough to where this NFC North game goes Over the total. Then you’ve got a Minnesota offense that seems to have found its rhythm behind the running of Dalvin Cook. Cook has scored five touchdowns the past two games while running for 369 yards. The Vikings have scored at least 23 points in six straight games. Five of those games have gone Over. All six have seen at least 50 points scored. Something we found to be interesting is that all five NFC North games this season have seen the Over hit. Play on the OVER AAA |
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11-15-20 | Ravens -7 v. Patriots | Top | 17-23 | Loss | -105 | 132 h 31 m | Show |
This is an 8* on BALTIMORE New England picked up an U-G-L-Y win Monday night against the Jets. The fact that they were trailing the Jets - by double digits - going into the 4th quarter should tell you all you need to know about the current state of the Patriots. Now on a short week they must turn around and play host to Baltimore, a team at the opposite end of the league’s spectrum. A 24-10 win over the Colts last week was hardly the Ravens “finest hour,” but they really dominated the second half which saw the defense pitch a shutout. That made it a 10-game road winning streak in which Lamar Jackson and the offense have averaged a very impressive 32.3 points/game. Remember that the Ravens destroyed a much better Patriots team around this time last season, 37-20. At the time, the Patriots were 8-0. Since then they’ve gone just 7-11 straight up. Their vaunted record as a home underdog is no longer really that applicable now that Tom Brady is in Tampa Bay. Baltimore has scored at least 20 points in 31 straight games and forced a turnover in 21 straight games. Play on BALTIMORE AAA |
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11-15-20 | Bengals v. Steelers OVER 47.5 | Top | 10-36 | Loss | -109 | 128 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 9* on OVER Pittsburgh is one of four teams that is 6-2 ATS, the best such record in the league. But Cincinnati happens to be one of the other three. Of course the Steelers’ 8-0 SU record is the envy of not just the 2-5-1 Bengals, but the rest of the league as well. On Saturday, Big Ben was activated from the COVID-19/reserve list and is expected to start Sunday. He should have plenty of time to throw against this Bengals defense that has generated only 11 sacks and recently traded Carlos Dunlap. On the other side, rookie Joe Burrow figures to be running for his life. The spread is larger than what we’d feel comfortable laying, but look for this AFC North game to go Over. Five of Cincy’s last seven, including three straight, have gone Over. The last three games have seen 58, 71 and 51 points scored. Pittsburgh averages 32.5 points/game at home. Last week’s poor effort (still a 24-19 win in Dallas) was their lowest scoring game to date. They are 16-6 Over L22 as a home favorite. Play on OVER AAA |
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11-15-20 | Seahawks +2 v. Rams | Top | 16-23 | Loss | -102 | 128 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 9* on SEATTLE Seattle suffered its second loss of the season last week, 44-34 at the hands of Buffalo. That result surprised us as did the fact Bills QB Josh Allen threw for more than 400 yards against the Seahawks defense. Now it's not as if we were under the impression the Seahawks defense is one of the league’s best (far from it), but still it was jarring to see them give up 44 points. Now they face the Rams, who are off a bye, in a very important NFC West matchup. Look for Russell Wilson to lead the bounce back. Since Wilson was drafted, Seattle is 23-10-2 ATS as an underdog, the best such record in the league during that time. The last time the Seahawks were getting points was … last season. The Rams’ defense is second in the league in points allowed, but they’ve faced a slew of poor offenses. When they faced Buffalo, they gave up 35 points and were down big in the 1st half. The Seahawks offense leads the league in scoring at 34.3 points/game. The Rams are 5-3, but that includes 4-0 against the terrible NFC East. Take that away and their only win was against a Chicago team whose offensive capabilities couldn’t be further from Seattle’s. Play on LA RAMS AAA |
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11-15-20 | Bills v. Cardinals -1.5 | Top | 30-32 | Win | 100 | 127 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ARIZONA Buffalo picked up a big win last week. They beat Seattle 44-34 to move to 7-2 on the year. But that was at home. They are just 1-4 ATS L5 road games and hadn’t covered in four straight overall before last week’s upset of the Seahawks. Arizona is off a loss to Buffalo’s AFC East rival Miami, dropping them to 1-5 ATS as a home favorite since 2018. But the Cardinals are a good team and we don’t see them losing two in a row on their home field. Remember that they are the only other team (besides Buffalo) to defeat Seattle this year. Kyler Murray is putting up some really impressive numbers and the offense posted more total yards than Miami last week (442 to 312) despite losing last week. It was a three-point loss where the Dolphins scored a defensive TD. The Bills were able to beat the Seahawks largely because of a +4 turnover differential. They really don’t have the statistical profile of a typical 7-2 team. Besides two wins over the Jets, they have three wins by a field goal and another by a touchdown. They were dominated by two of the AFC’s better teams, Tennessee and Kansas City. This number is too short. Play on ARIZONA AAA |
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11-15-20 | Texans v. Browns -3 | Top | 7-10 | Push | 0 | 124 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 7* on CLEVELAND This seems to be a bit of a curious line as Houston is getting a lot of respect despite being 2-6 straight up and 1-7 against the spread. Both Texans wins have come against Jacksonville, the second one last week by a score of 27-25. Cleveland was off last week (bye) and has failed to cover three in a row themselves. But the Browns are in a much better spot than the Texans right now, 5-3 and in the playoff hunt for the first time in over a decade. They get RB Nick Chubb back this week, which is a big deal. When Chubb got hurt, the Browns were leading the NFL in rushing yards -- averaging more than 200 per game. They’ve since “slipped” a bit (to 5th) but with Chubb back in the fold should find little resistance against a terrible Houston defense that gives up the most rushing yards per game in the league. The Texans haven’t covered a single road game this year (0-4 ATS) nor have they covered a single time as an underdog (0-5). There were COVID-19 concerns midweek for the Browns, but those all seem to be in the rear view mirror now. This is a game they HAVE to win if they want to end the league’s longest playoff drought. Play on CLEVELAND AAA |
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11-14-20 | Wisconsin -4.5 v. Michigan | Top | 49-11 | Win | 100 | 70 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WISCONSIN Michigan has not played well as an underdog for Jim Harbaugh. They have lost all 10 games where they have been getting points and covered only twice. This will be the first time under Harbaugh that they’ve been a home dog to anyone besides Ohio State. It’s against a Wisconsin team that’s been forced to cancel its last two games because of COVID. While that is certainly a distraction no team wants to have to deal with, the Badgers were projected to be a Top 5 (ish) team (in the country) this season and were 45-7 winners (against Illinois) in the one game they did play. The Badgers could have QB Graham Mertz on the field this Saturday in Ann Arbor. Regardless whether or not he suits up, look for Wisconsin to take advantage of a terrible Wolverines secondary that has been picked apart in losses to Michigan State and Indiana. Michigan has missed covering the spread by a combined 45 points the last two weeks. They look to be vastly overrated and Harbaugh’s future is now very much in doubt. The team just isn’t very good. Wisconsin has won four of the last six against Michigan. Not only were they favored in all four wins, those four wins were all by double digits. While it was two weeks ago, the Badgers are 4-0 ATS the L4 times they’ve been off a 40+ point game. They’ve also covered 13 of 17 as road favorites. Play on WISCONSIN AAA |
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11-14-20 | Oregon -10 v. Washington State | Top | 43-29 | Win | 100 | 69 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OREGON You could pick apart Oregon’s 35-14 win over Stanford win last Saturday. The Cardinal didn’t have their starting QB or top receiver and still moved the ball pretty well. Had their kicker not missed FOUR field goals, it’s obviously a much closer game. But be careful about discounting what the Ducks did. Their offense, in the first game without Justin Herbert, gained almost 500 yards. Washington State’s defense isn’t good so we’re expecting plenty of points and yards from Oregon yet again this week. The big story (from a betting perspective) is that the Ducks are 0-10 ATS the L10 meetings with Wazzu. That is quite the crazy streak. Oregon did snap a 4-game SU losing streak to Wazzu with a 37-35 win in Eugene last year. Now it’s time for the ATS streak to end. We know lots of people are falling in love with last week’s performance by the Cougars new starting QB, Jayden de Laura. But remember that it came against Oregon State. You have to go back to the WSU defense, which gave up a lot of yards (451) and should be picked apart by Tyler Shough and the Ducks offense. Washington State is just 1-6 ATS the last seven times they’ve been off a SU win. Play on OREGON AAA |
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11-14-20 | Randa Markos v. Kanako Murata -175 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 54 h 29 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MURATA Kanako Murata is making her UFC debut on Saturday. But the former Invicta Strawweight Champ brings in a very impressive resume, including an 11-1 career record in mixed martial arts. She has beaten two former “Ultimate Fighter” veterans, so it’s not as if she’s a stranger to this level of competition. Quite frankly, the inconsistent Randa Markos (10-9-1) just isn’t on her level. Markos just suffered a submission loss to Mackenzie Dern last month. That was our 10* Fight of the Month pick (on Dern) for September. It was Markos’ second straight defeat and third in four fights. She is 2-4-1 her last seven fights. Even when she’s been victorious, she gets taken down. This is a fade on Markos against a very talented UFC newcomer who should make a big impact here. Play on MURATA AAA |
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11-14-20 | Northwestern v. Purdue +3 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 67 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 9* on PURDUE Northwestern is 3-0 but has been pretty lucky to win each of the last two weeks. They trailed Iowa 17-0 before coming back, thanks to three Hawkeyes’ turnovers. They gained just 273 yards in that 21-20 victory. Then the Wildcats were -125 in total yards to Nebraska in a 21-13 win last week where again turnovers were the story. The Cornhuskers gave it away twice in the second half, both times deep inside Northwestern territory. In three games, Northwestern has forced nine turnovers. They probably can’t count on that saving them every week. Nebraska was in the red zone EIGHT times last week, yet came away with only 13 points. This week they go to Purdue to face a Boilermakers team that is also unbeaten (2-0). Purdue had an unexpected bye last Saturday as they were supposed to face Wisconsin, but that game was cancelled due to the Badgers’ COVID outbreak. The Boilermakers have looked good on offense even without All-American WR Rondale Moore. David Bell has 22 catches for 243 yards so far and Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald called HIM “the best receiver in the country.” The Wildcats are just 2-8-2 ATS the L12 times they’ve been favored. Purdue is on a 19-7 ATS run as underdogs. Play on PURDUE AAA |
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11-14-20 | Colorado v. Stanford -6.5 | Top | 35-32 | Loss | -110 | 66 h 39 m | Show |
This is an 8* on STANFORD UPDATE: The following writeup was completed BEFORE the Pac 12 was forced to apologize to Stanford for the inconclusive testing that resulted in last week's COVID-related absences. All of those Cardinal players are now available for Saturday and we're liking this play even more! COVID issues and an opening week loss to Oregon will have many doubting Stanford this week, but not us. The Cardinal will be hosting a Colorado team that is off a 48-42 win over UCLA last Saturday. The Buffaloes were up big in that win (by 28 points), but had to hold off a furious second half rally by the Bruins. The biggest contributing factor to the win was a +4 turnover margin. The defense still gave up 7.0 yards per rush attempt and almost 500 total yards. Stanford should be able to move the ball here, even if it has to go with a backup QB again. Not having starter Davis Mills (COVID) versus a team as good as Oregon was a really tough blow for the Cardinal last week But they still gained over 400 yards with backup Jack West. The problem was that their kicker missed FOUR field goals! If called back into duty, West can again lean on RB Austin Jones, who just had a 100+ yard day against a defense that’s much better than the one he’ll face this week. Speaking of field goal issues, Colorado’s kicker just retired! The Buffs are 0-4 ATS their last four road games and they were the underdog in all four. Play on STANFORD AAA |
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11-14-20 | South Alabama v. UL-Lafayette -15.5 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 64 h 10 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LOUISIANA The last two weeks have seen South Alabama fall short against Ga Southern and Coastal Carolina - by scores of 24-17 and 23-6. Now they have to play a third consecutive road game against who we still consider to be the top team in the Sun Belt, Louisiana. The Jaguars have just one road win in their last 16 tries and are 2-23 SU its L25 games as an underdog. While the Ragin Cajuns also lost to Coastal Carolina this year, they would probably still be favored in a rematch. They can potentially earn that rematch by winning Saturday as that would clinch the Sun Belt’s Western Division. (Coastal Carolina leads the East). Coastal Carolina is Louisiana’s only loss of 2020. The Ragin Cajuns have beaten Iowa State and since the CC loss are 3-0 and averaging 446.7 yards of offense. The defense is in the Top 20 in the country in passing yards allowed. Louisiana has beaten S Alabama four years in a row and was actually favored by 27.5 on the ROAD last season. While they didn’t cover the spot, this number is far more manageable and they’re at home this time. While all of Louisiana’s conference games so far have been decided by 10 points or less, they’ve been facing some of the better teams. This is their easiest game to date. Play on LOUISIANA AAA |
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11-13-20 | East Carolina v. Cincinnati -27.5 | Top | 17-55 | Win | 100 | 55 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CINCINNATI Cincinnati is one of seven teams in the country that’s 6-0 or better. Other than Notre Dame and Alabama, some of the names on that list might surprise you. But the Bearcats are no joke. This is a legit top 10 team in the country right now that has absolutely been destroying its opponents. They’ve averaged 43 points the previous three games and that was against SMU, Memphis and Houston, three of the better teams in the American Athletic Conference. The defense is allowing just 11.7 points/game for the season and hasn’t given up more than 13 since allowing a season-high 20 in the opener vs. Austin Peay. While laying this many points presents a bit of a challenge, we just can’t see Cincy having any difficulty with a 1-5 East Carolina team that’s giving up 37.3 points/game. The Pirates ran for only 35 yards on 29 attempts in a 38-21 loss to Tulane last week, which was at home. They shouldn’t expect to be able to run the ball here either as the Bearcats’ defense is 10th best in the country at stopping the run. This should be a very easy win for the favorite. Lay it! Play on CINCINNATI AAA |
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11-12-20 | Colts v. Titans OVER 48.5 | Top | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 34 h 6 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER We expect a hot start from both offenses on Thursday when the Colts take on the Titans. Indianapolis actually dominated the first half against Baltimore last week, owning a huge edge in total yards. They didn’t make the most of it though and ended up losing the game 24-10. They are still scoring an average of 26.0 points as last week was their lowest scoring effort of 2020. Tennessee didn’t have its best offensive showing last week either. They were held to a season-low in yardage (224). It was actually the defense that led the way in a 24-17 win over Chicago. But be careful about putting too much stock in that performance. The Bears offense isn’t good. The Titans defense had really been struggling on third down this season before holding Chicago to 2 of 15. In the first seven games, the Titans were allowing opponents to convert at 62% on third down. The Colts defense has put up good numbers, but also faced a lot of bad offenses. Tennessee is 7th in the NFL in scoring offense at 29.0 points/game and they are averaging 33.0 at home. Play the OVER AAA |
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11-12-20 | Colorado State v. Boise State OVER 61 | Top | 21-52 | Win | 100 | 33 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER Colorado State is 1-1. They lost 38-17 to Fresno State in their opening game, but then bounced back to defeat Wyoming 34-24 last week in the annual “Border War.” Boise State (2-1) fell from the ranks of the unbeaten last week with an embarrassing 51-17 home loss to BYU. But it's critical to point out that the Broncos were down to their third string quarterback last Friday and their top running back was also injured. Whether or not the injured players will return this week remains unknown, but we believe Boise coach Bryan Harsin will put together a solid enough game plan to put points on the board Thursday night. The third stringer, true freshman Caleb Fennegan, wasn’t actually all that bad vs. BYU. He threw for two touchdowns and completed 15 of his 26 passes. Colorado State is a much easier opponent than BYU and if called into duty again this week, Fennegan will at least be ready. Boise scored 91 points in its first two games. Colorado State is allowing 448.5 yards/game. No matter who the QB has been for Boise State, they’ve always dominated the Rams. They’ve won all nine meetings and averaged 44.5 points/game in doing so. CSU should score enough to help send this one OVER. Play on OVER AAA |
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11-11-20 | Toledo v. Western Michigan -2.5 | Top | 38-41 | Win | 100 | 34 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WESTERN MICHIGAN These are probably the best two teams in the MAC’s West Division and if one thing is for certain, it’s that this game is going to be a lot tougher than it was for either side in Week 1. Behind 310 yards rushing, Toledo smoked Bowling Green 38-3 last week. Western Michigan was just as unkind to Akron in a 58-13 blowout. We’ve got some concerns about Toledo though as the Rockets lost all 4 MAC road games last year and did so by an average of 28 points/game. Furthermore, their only two wins in the last six games of 2019 were by a total of five points and came about as a result of the opponents missing on a field goal & two-point conversion. Western Michigan was arguably as talented as any MAC team in 2019 and won all six of its home games. Five of those six wins were by double digits. With this game taking place in Kalamazoo, that’s an edge for the slightly favored Broncos. Also, having lost to Toledo three straight years, this is a big revenge game. We liked what we saw from WMU quarterback Eleby last week and the backs and receivers looked great as well. Toledo QB Peters has some accuracy issues, so be on the lookout for that. Both of these teams are off blowout wins, but the home team is more likely to keep it rolling. Play on WESTERN MICHIGAN AAA |
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11-11-20 | Eastern Michigan +9.5 v. Ball State | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 34 h 30 m | Show |
This is an 8* on EASTERN MICHIGAN You had both Eastern Michigan coming out on the wrong end of close games last week. They both blew second half leads, so you’ll have two teams ready to go Wednesday. Eastern Michigan lost 27-23 at Kent State and now hits the road for a second straight week to face a Ball State team that lost 38-31 at Miami, Ohio. Ball State won this matchup last season, but by just points, and before that it had been Eastern Michigan prevailing three straight years. This just looks like too many points in a pretty even matchup. Eastern Michigan is 21-6-1 ATS its last 28 games as a road underdog. So this is a spot they usually do well in. They covered the 5.5-point number last week at Kent State. Ball State did not cover against Miami as they were only 1-point underdogs. If you think that playing at home might help the Cardinals here, know that they are just 12-25 ATS their last 37 games here. Eastern Michigan has pulled 12 outright upsets the last four seasons and that actually includes three against Power 5 teams. Knowing that, a simple cover in this matchup doesn’t seem too challenging. Play on EASTERN MICHIGAN AAA |
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11-10-20 | Miami-OH v. Buffalo -9.5 | Top | 10-42 | Win | 100 | 21 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BUFFALO Both Miami and Buffalo opened 2020 by winning. But both might feel a little fortunate to prevail by the margins that they did. Buffalo’s 49-30 win over Northern Illinois was a byproduct of five Huskies turnovers more than anything else, but at least they still won by 19 points. Miami was only a 38-31 winner over Ball State and had to come back from a double digit deficit (21-10) to do so. Now we had the RedHawks so that comeback made us quite happy. But we recognize a shaky start when we see one. Though they came back and won last week, losing starting QB Brett Gabbert wasn’t ideal. (As of press time, it’s unclear whether Gabbert will return this week). Buffalo might be the best team in the MAC this year. They were picked by many to win the conference last year, but a loss to Miami played a significant role in the Redhawks going on to capture the crown. The Bulls had 133 more yards than the Redhawks in last year’s game and the defense allowed just 2.6 yards per rush attempt. Being -4 in turnovers is what cost them. Buffalo’s defense was tops in scoring among MAC teams in 2019 and seven starters are back from that group. They scored THREE touchdowns last week and will be the difference in this revenge spot. Play on BUFFALO AAA |
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11-09-20 | Patriots v. Jets OVER 41 | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 153 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER These Patriots aren’t the same Patriots we’re used to seeing. Bill Belichick is already missing Tom Brady as the team is an uncharacteristic 2-5 after seven games. Yet it could be worse. The Jets are 0-8 and easily the worst team in the league. New York is expected to turn to Joe Flacco tonight as Sam Darnold is dealing with a shoulder injury. But there’s no way we’re laying this massive number with a team (NE) that’s lost its last four games. We like the Over. With scoring at an all-time high in 2020, this total is just too low, even with Flacco as one of the starting QBs. While the Jets are last in offense, they do give up 29.8 points/game. We fully expect the Patriots to come through with their highest scoring game in over a month here. Last week they put up 21 on Buffalo and it would have been more had Cam Newton not fumbled late in the red zone. The Newton-led offense has scored 30 or more twice this year. For the Jets, their only other primetime game (Week 4 vs. Denver) produced their highest scoring game of the season and that was with Flacco playing most of the game. Play on OVER AAA |