This is a 10* on HAWAII

This game may be called the “New Mexico Bowl,” but it’s actually taking place in Frisco, TX due to COVID restrictions. Houston isn’t complaining as the game is even closer to home, a welcome reprieve after the Cougars had EIGHT cancellations/postponements during the regular season. But we’re not sold that they should be this big of a favorite. They’ve played just one time since November 14th and that ended up being a 30-27 LOSS to Memphis. Not coincidentally, we played against UH there as well. They were 6.5-point road favorites for that one. Hawaii was just 4-4 SU and 3-5 ATS in the regular season. But if you take out games where they were favored (0-3 ATS), then they begin to look like a more attractive bet here. Led by QB Chevan Cordeiro (2450 total yards, 18 total touchdowns), the Warriors should score a reasonable number of points in this game. The only other time this season they were catching double digits was vs. Boise State. Houston is missing two of its best defensive players as they opted out to prepare for the NFL Draft. Same with their leading receiver. Houston has lost three straight bowls. Their head coach Dana Holgorsen is 2-5 straight up in bowl games. Play on HAWAII

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This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE

Milwaukee has been the best team in the Eastern Conference each of the last two seasons, but has yet to make their way to an NBA Finals. Boston has made it to the Conference Finals in three of the last four seasons. So both of these teams have high hopes for 2020-21. With Giannis Antetokounmpo now signed, the Bucks can focus on the court and do what they do best. This has been the best offensive team in the league, at least in the regular season, two years running. They added Jrue Holiday. The Celtics have more question marks entering the season. Gordon Hayward is now in Charlotte. Kemba Walker is out because of a knee injury. So we think it could be a slow start in Beantown. The Bucks have beaten the Celtics in 8 of the previous 10 matchups and are 5-2 ATS the L7. They handle their business in the opener. Play on MILWAUKEE

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This is a 7* on MIAMI

The Heat will open this season where last season ended, that being Orlando, which of course hosted the NBA bubble. It won’t be the same arena where they lost to the Lakers in the NBA Finals in October, but the visit should still evoke memories. We like Miami to win tonight, though the money line appears to be the better option than the spread (which is rising). The Heat should again be one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference and while they’ll be restricting Jimmy Butler’s minutes (he averaged 43 MPG in the Finals) early on, there are no such limitations for Miami’s young core. Avery Bradley was an offseason acquisition, coming over from the Lakers. Orlando did not make any real changes in the offseason after finishing 8th in the East. They are probably going to battle with the likes of division rivals Atlanta and Washington for spots in the new ‘play-in’ scenarios this year. Though Miami wasn’t favored all that often during its playoff run, they have covered five straight as chalk. They’ve also beaten the Magic three straight times. Play on MIAMI

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This is a 10* on OVER

We look to make it three straight Overs to open the bowl season. While only the two bowls we’ve played (first two) have gone Over thus far, even last night’s UFC-BYU game featured plenty of scoring (72 total points). The only reason that one didn’t go Over is that it had the highest O/U of any bowl this season. There’s just not much incentive for these teams to play solid defense this time of year. Florida Atlantic should be the latest example. While the Owls only gave up 16.5 points/game in the regular season, it was shredded in the finale for 45 by a terrible Southern Miss squad. Memphis, who is certainly capable of putting up a big number, should do so here in the Montgomery Bowl. They averaged 450 yards/game in the regular season and scored 40 or more points three different times. Interestingly, FAU is 4-0 all-time in bowls while Memphis has lost five straight bowl games. The Tigers definitely should be motivated to come out and put up a lot of points. FAU will score enough too. The Over is 14-5 in Memphis’ L19 non-conf games Play on OVER

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This is a 10* on OVER

It’s not been a strong start to the year for Towson, although that was probably to be expected as Tigers’ first three games have come against Virginia, San Francisco and Buffalo. They were the dog in all three games and are a predictable 0-3. It’s been almost a MONTH since we’ve seen them, due to COVID cancellations. Their ATS record is also 0-3. George Mason is also 0-3 ATS, although they did win their last two games SU - beating Howard and VMI. The Patriots’ schedule has obviously been a lot less challenging than Towson’s, however there are several suspensions that GMU is currently dealing with. We like this game to go Over as it’s a low total and the shooting from both sides is due for improvement. Towson has made less than 40% of its field goal attempts thus far, which is insane. They have allowed at least 74 points in every game and unfortunately (for them), we don’t see that changing. George Mason gave up 77 and 70 its first two games. Play on OVER

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This is an 8* on LAKERS 

Though we’re projecting both LA teams to fare quite well this season, the clear call on Opening Night is to take the Lakers. The consensus view is that the Lakers are now a better team than when they won the NBA Finals a scant two months ago. Looking at the roster, it’s difficult to argue with that assessment. Valuable additions such as Dennis Schroder, Montrezl Harrell and Marc Gasol make the Lakers a deeper team. It’s easy to “fall in love” with what Talen Horton-Tucker did in the preseason. Even though they just won the NBA Championship, LeBron and company will want to remind the league that they are the team to beat. The Clippers are a bit of a mess right now with the Kawhi Leonard situation seeming like a real distraction. They have a new coach in Ty Lue. It’s not like Doc Rivers was a bad coach, so problems with this team may run deeper than coaching. The teams split four regular season meetings last year, one of them in the bubble. The Lakers won the last two. Give me the favorite to win on Opening Night. Play on LA LAKERS 

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This is a 10* on TEX TECH

Texas Tech looks to bounce back from its second defeat of the season here as they travel to Norman to face Oklahoma. The Red Raiders lost by just 1 point to Kansas at home, but we still consider them to be one of the premier teams in the country. So do the oddsmakers by having them favored in this spot. Oklahoma is 5-1, but that one loss was really bad as they were blown out 99-77 by Xavier. That’s been the only real test thus far for the Sooners and they failed it miserably. They did win at TCU, but Texas Tech is a lot better than both TCU and Xavier. Offense isn’t always pretty for the Red Raiders but they come in as the #1 rated team in defensive efficiency in the entire country. Considering OU made only 5 three-pointers against Houston Baptist, a season-low, they figure to struggle from the perimeter again tonight. The Sooners are just 8-20 ATS off a SU win. Take the better team to win this nationally televised affair. Play on TEXAS TECH

This is an 8* on OVER

There was no shortage of scoring in the first bowl game and we expect the same thing in bowl game #2. Our participants in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl are Tulane and Nevada. Tulane was 6-5 in the regular season, covering the spread in six of the last seven games. The lone non-cover was against Tulsa, whom they led 14-0 in the fourth quarter while getting +4.5 from the oddsmakers. The Green Wave were not only 0-2 in overtime games this year, there were also two early season games where they led by 17 or more points and still lost! But the bottom line is they still averaged more than 35 points and that Tulsa loss is the only game since September where they didn’t hit 31. Now onto Nevada, who was once 5-0, but ended up 6-2. The Wolfpack scored 34 or more in half their games. They had 20 at halftime vs. SJSU, but were shockingly shutout after that. If not for that second half blanking, they would have averaged more than 30 points/game this season. Nevada has a good QB in Carson Strong and he definitely catches a break here as the Tulane defense will be without two All-Conference selections. Play on OVER

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This is a 9* on TOLEDO

Northern Illinois just picked up its first win in six tries as they beat Chicago State 64-54 on Friday. But Chicago State is arguably the worst team in all of Division I College Basketball. The Huskies are still without an ATS win (0-6) this season as they were 16.5-point favorites in that last game. They were also favored in the first two games of the season. Here they are underdogs to a Toledo that has played only one bad game and that was against a superior Michigan squad. The Rockets enter in at 6-3 with the other two losses coming by two and three points. They’ve won five of the last six, Michigan being the lone defeat. Northern Illinois already has three 20+ point losses on its resume and we just don’t see them staying close Tuesday afternoon. Toledo has actually lost three in a row to NIU, so they are going to take this game lightly nor will they take it easy on their downtrodden conference foe. In three previous home games, the Rockets have allowed an average of just 58.3 points/game. Play on TOLEDO

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This is a 10* on UNDER

Neither the Steelers nor the Bengals have done much scoring lately. Pittsburgh, who was 11-0 but now is 11-2, has not scored more than 19 points in any of its last three games. While a matchup with 2-10-1 Cincinnati certainly seems like a recipe for success, the Steelers simply won’t have to score many points to come out ahead in this one. That’s because their defense - still one of the league’s best - figures to have one of easiest “days at the office” on Monday. The Bengals are starting Ryan Finley at QB tonight. He’s even worse than Bradon Allen, who quite frankly wasn’t very effective himself in filling in for the injured Joe Burrow. In the last five games, Cincinnati has scored just 50 points total, never more than 17 in any one game. How do you think they are going to perform with a third string QB going against the league’s #1 scoring defense? Pittsburgh won’t put up 30 in this game, simply because they “don’t have to.” Play on UNDER

This is a 10* on UNDER

Belmont is off and running with a 7-1 start to the season. The Bruins are averaging 80 points/game. The only loss was a bit of a head-scratcher as they fell, as 17.5-point home favorites, to Samford. Of course, Samford is a team that scores plenty of points as was very obvious with that game ending up 96-83. Evansville isn’t going to score anywhere in that neighborhood, however. The Purple Aces are putting up an average of just 65.2 points in their five games so far and only one time have they topped 68. Evansville hasn’t shot well so far as they’re below 40% overall from the field. One area where they’ve REALLY struggled is defending the three-point line. Opponents are making 46% of their threes against the Purple Aces and the two previous teams that visited here hit 55% from behind the arc! You really can’t get any worse than that, so even if Evansville’s actual defense doesn’t improve, the opposition’s shooting will cool off regardless. Belmont is not a great three-point shooting team. This one stays Under. Play on UNDER

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This is a 10* on the OVER

With North Texas involved, it’s very difficult to imagine the Myrtle Beach Bowl NOT being high-scoring. The Mean Green give up over 500 yards and 41 points per game. Six of their nine regular season games went Over the total. It’s a tough bowl assignment here as they’re matched up against an Appalachian State team whose three losses came to teams (Louisiana, Coastal Carolina, Marshall) that are a combined 27-3 SU. The Mountaineers very much deserve to be the biggest favorite in all the bowls, but because they have the worst ATS record (2-9) of all the bowl teams, we can’t justify laying this number. Of course, North Texas hasn’t been very good at the betting window either (0-3 ATS L3), but what they are good at is offense. The Mean Green had the best passing attack in Conference USA and averaged over 35 points and 500 yards per game. But back to the defense, NT has given up a total of 140 points in its last three bowl appearances. Appalachian State will run for a lot of yards in this game, which will easily go Over. Play on OVER

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This is an 8* on CLEMSON

Though it’s basketball, the final margin of victory this afternoon in Death Valley should be something reminiscent of the Clemson football team. Tigers’ hoops is coming off its 1st loss of the season, 66-60 at Virginia Tech last Tuesday. That was after starting the year not just 5-0 straight up, but also 5-0 against the spread. They’re matched up with Morehead State today and obviously the underdog has little, if any, chance in this one. Previous visits to Kentucky and Ohio State went really poorly for the Eagles as they lost to those respective opponents by 36 and 33 points. Clemson is better than both Kentucky and OSU. The Tigers already have four P5 wins, so they’re not playing a cupcake schedule. Even more impressive is that three of those four wins came by double digits. The only time Clemson got to face a non-P5 foe, they won 75-38 (South Carolina St) and we expect something along those lines here. Play on CLEMSON

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This is an 8* on OVER

The Browns played a thriller Monday night, ultimately coming up short against Baltimore by a score of 47-42. It probably won’t be that high scoring again Sunday night, but we still like the Over vs. the Giants. The Browns have scored 83 points themselves the last two games, despite facing two probable playoff teams. So the fact the Giants have gone Under in four straight against winning teams and their last four overall doesn’t mean much to us, even if backup Colt McCoy is forced into a starting role again. Freddie Kitchens, the Browns former head coach, will be calling plays here for the G-Men. That’s interesting. He should know the opponent well. The Browns defense has given up 82 points the last two games. The Giants defense will be playing without its best cornerback, James Bradberry. The Browns are 4-0 Over the last four times they’ve been a road favorite. The Giants are on a 7-3 Over run after scoring 15 points or less their previous game. Play on OVER

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This is a 10* on MICH ST

Michigan State is 6-0 and ranked #4 in the country. But they actually haven’t covered a spread since their 75-69 “upset” of Duke on the 1st of the month. But this 3-game ATS losing streak is easier to swallow when you consider Sparty has been favored by at least 23 points in all three of those games. They’ve won by exactly 18 points their last two times out. Tonight the number is more manageable against Northwestern, who is 3-1 and hasn’t faced anything close to the challenge they’re up against here. The mood in Evanston is certainly “down” after yesterday’s loss in the Big 10 Championship Game by the football team. Don’t look for any kind of “pick me up” from Chris Collins team. Michigan State is averaging nearly 85 points/game and beat Northwestern by 29 in the last meeting. Big 10 play did not go well for Northwestern last season. They were just 3-17 SU. The Wildcats three wins this year came against Ark Pine Bluff, Chicago State and Quincy College. Eight Spartans scored at least nine points in the last game. Play on MICHIGAN STATE

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This is an 8* on KANSAS CITY

Kansas City is the first team since the ‘86 Patriots to win five consecutive one score games while going 0-5 ATS. But this is the rare occasion where they are laying a short number. It comes in New Orleans against a Saints team that is off a shocking loss to the Eagles last week. Despite the 5-game ATS losing streak, Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes is still 19-11 ATS since the start of last season, the best cover percentage in the league during that time. He’s 30-18-1 ATS in his career (including playoffs). The Chiefs are also 41-21-1 ATS on the road since 2013. What we are saying is that you can lay the points with the confidence, even if Drew Brees returns for New Orleans. Kansas City has just one loss and should be regarded as the best team in the league right now. Can’t see them failing to cover for a sixth straight time. If not for an uncharacteristic four turnovers, they would have covered easily last week against Miami. The Chiefs are just better than the Saints right now. Play on KANSAS CITY

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This is an 8* on NY JETS

The Jets are very bad, but this is also a ton of points. It’s one of the highest spreads for any game this season. The Rams did just win by 21 here at home last week. But that was also their largest MOV this season. They’ve got only three wins this year by more than two touchdowns and, oddly enough, the other two were both on the road and early in the season. The Jets had been a lot more competitive before running into the Seahawks last week. Three of their previous four losses were by six points or fewer. As long as they are winless, they should stay motivated. No team of professionals wants to go winless for an entire regular season. This is the most points the Rams have been favored by in a game since the “Greatest Show on Turf” team of 2001. It won’t be pretty but the Jets will stay within three scores. Play on NY JETS

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This is a 10* on ARIZONA

Arizona got back on track last week with a 26-7 win against the Giants, our Game of the Week. For the second week in a row, the Cardinals are our top play. They host the Eagles this time. While Philadelphia pulled out a shocking 24-21 win against New Orleans, they still shouldn’t be taken very seriously with a rookie QB (Jalen Hurts). Arizona badly needs this game to improve its playoff chances. Philadelphia is just 1-5 ATS on the road this season. While all those games were with Carson Wentz at QB, we’re not buying Hurts as a big difference maker. The Eagles have not covered back to back games all year. The Arizona defense played really well last week and had eight sacks. Philadelphia has had 12 different starting offensive line combinations in the first 13 games, so good luck pass protecting in this one. We don’t see them having the same success running the ball that they did last week. The Eagles defense has really struggled against mobile QBs this year and Arizona’s Kyler Murray has rushed for 712 yards and 10 touchdowns this season. Play on ARIZONA

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This is a 9* on INDIANAPOLIS

These teams met just two weeks ago with the Colts winning 26-20 in Houston. The game was decided when the Texans fumbled inside the 10-yard line in the closing minutes. While Indianapolis very much could have lost that first meeting, we like them to win the rematch - big - at home. They come into Week 15 tied with Tennessee for the AFC South lead. A win here and their playoff chances improve exponentially. Houston is 4-9 and has no shot of making the playoffs. An ugly 36-7 loss in Chicago last week indicates the Texans have pretty much “packed it in.” DeShaun Watson has been sacked 11 times the last two weeks, five of those coming against the Colts. Indianapolis is a team that is heavily respected by the oddsmakers. They’ve been an underdog only once all season. They are 8-2 ATS their past 10 games as a favorite. They’ve got a top ten offense and defense. The Texans are 6-14-1 ATS in December or later going back to 2016. They are also 1-6 ATS vs. teams with a winning record this season. The Colts have covered seven of their last eight games vs. the Texans and that trend should continue here in what shapes up as a real mismatch Sunday. Houston is 1-7 SU/2-6 ATS as an underdog this year. Play on INDIANAPOLIS

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This is an 8* on SEATTLE

This is a big mismatch now that Dwayne Haskins has to start for Washington. There really is no debate that the Football Team got much better once Haskins was benched for Alex Smith. Now Smith is hurt at a most inopportune time. Haskins has to face one of the better teams in the league, one that just put up 40 points last week. There is no chance Washington is able to trade points in this one. The offense gained less than 200 total yards in last week’s 23-15 win against San Francisco. The Football Team is now vying to become the first team since Tampa Bay in 2016 to win four straight games, all as an underdog. Seems unlikely. The Seahawks defense has gotten much better since Jamal Adams came back. They’ve allowed 17 points or less three straight weeks. Play on SEATTLE

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This is an 8* on SAN FRANCISCO

We like this price quite a bit on a 49ers team that is better than its record. They might be only 1-4 the last five games, but all four losses were to division leaders. They did beat a very good Rams team, on the road, 23-20. Dallas is not a good team. In fact, the Cowboys have a -102 point differential, a NFC worst. A 30-7 win last week over a Bengals team with a backup quarterback (Brandon Allen) didn’t alter our view of the ‘Boys at all. The previous two games saw them lose by a combined 42 points to Baltimore and Washington. Even after a decent effort last week, the Cowboys defense is still allowing 5.1 yards per rush, worst in football. So look for San Fran to run the ball effectively in this one. The 49ers are 12-3 ATS in games with a spread of five points or less going back to the beginning of last season. They’ve also covered three in a row as road favorites. No team has been worse at the betting window this year than Dallas, who is 3-10 ATS. Play on SAN FRANCISCO

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This is an 8* on UNDER 4.5 ROUNDS

Thompson, the #5 ranked welterweight in UFC, should very much be viewed as a “gatekeeper” at this stage of his UFC career. He’s still one of the division’s best, but has been unsuccessful in two previous title shots. Off a win against Vicente Luque, he’ll next face Neal, who is on a 5-0 run coming into this fight. Four of those five wins for Neal have been finishes including the last two. Both of these fighters are very accurate strikers. Thompson does the better job at avoiding punishment, but when he absorbs it, he’s the more likely to go down. The odds already flipped for this fight and could very well flip back in Thompson’s direction by the time these two hit the cage. Regardless, it will be an exciting fight where someone finishes the other. Take the Under here, which is set at 4.5 rounds. Play on UNDER

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This is an 8* on WILLIAMS

Williams, 11-1 in his MMA career, has fought two times in the UFC. Those two fights have lasted a total of 57 seconds with him knocking out both opponents. Sounds like our type of fighter! Pereira is the next victim. While he did win by submission back in September, Pereira is too inconsistent of a fighter to trust in this spot. His penchant for shenanigans likely plays right into Williams’ hands (or hand as it may be). Quick wins are nothing new for Williams, even before he arrived on the scene in UFC. Three of his last four wins have come in 30 seconds or less! He has six career first round finishes, four of those coming in the last five fights. Play on WILLIAMS

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This is a 10* on OVER

At 4-9, Carolina has no shot at making the playoffs. But we can count on them to score. In four of the last five games, the Panthers have scored at least 23 points. The problem is they have LOST all four of those games. The one win in that five-game stretch was 20-0 over Detroit. Good luck here shutting out Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Green Bay has been playing at an elite level of late, scoring 30 or more in four consecutive contests. That shouldn’t be a surprise though. Rodgers and the GB offense are averaging 31.5 points/game for the season. Packers’ games are averaging more than 55 points total, which easily exceeds the OU for this matchup. Other than that shutout of the Lions, which should be viewed as an anomaly, the Panthers defense has permitted 25 or more points in every game since 10/25. In the last four losses (and you figure they are going to lose this week), they have given up 33, 46, 28 and 32 points. Play on OVER

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This is a 10* on the OVER

The American Athletic Conference Championship Game features two defenses that are giving up less than 20 points per game. However, we think you’re going to see plenty of points come Saturday night. Cincinnati has really gotten a “raw deal” from the playoff committee as the Bearcats should definitely be ranked higher than 9th considering they are 8-0. They average 40 points/game and will be looking to make a “statement” in front of a national TV audience Saturday night. Over the last five games, Cincy has scored 36, 55, 38, 49 and 42 points. An interesting thing with Tulsa is that they avoided a lot of the top offenses in the AAC. The only loss for the Golden Hurricane was to Oklahoma State, but that was not the Cowboys at full strength (they were using a backup QB). This is a really low total and we expect Cincinnati to score at least 30 in this game. These teams were supposed to play last week, but the Bearcats had to cancel due to COVID. Had that game been played, there would be a sense of familiarity. But it wasn’t played and thus that potential edge for the defenses is not there.Tulsa is going to score enough to make sure this one goes Over as they scored at least 28 against everyone besides Oklahoma State and Navy, their first and most recent games. Play on OVER

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This is an 8* ON MORAES

We look for Moraes to bounce back from his loss to Corey Sandhagen in October and reaffirm his status as one of the top bantamweights in the UFC. Moraes’ one issue, stamina, shouldn’t be so prevalent in a three-round fight as opposed to a five-round one. Sandhagen definitely “caught him” but losses such as that have been rare for Moraes. Font is fighting for the first time in a year and just the second time since the start of 2019. That level of inactivity isn’t good and while Font has won his last two fights - both by decision - he typically struggles against top-level competition. Moraes has fought the division’s best and should pick up the easy win here. Play on MORAES

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This is an 8* on Va Tech

After cashing a 38-point win last night, here’s another game on the College Basketball board that we feel will end up being not even remotely close. Va Tech can name the score Saturday as they host overmatched Coppin State. The Hokies just beat Clemson earlier this week, a nice bounce back from their only loss so far this season, which did come here in Blacksburg (to Penn State). Remember that Clemson is a top 25 team though, so that’s a really nice 66-60 win for Buzz Williams’ team. Coppin State is 1-5, their only win coming at home vs. UNC Greensboro. They lost by 17 at home to UMBC (remember them?) last time out - their 5th loss by double digits. This matchup ended up 74-42 (Va Tech, obviously) last year with the Hokies holding the Eagles below 20% shooting for the game. Should be more of the same today as Coppin State has looked REALLY bad thus far. Play on VIRGINIA TECH

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This is an 8* on BUFFALO

The Bills are definitely for real. That much we can say after they easily handled the Steelers Sunday. The 26-15 win improved Buffalo’s record to 10-3 and greatly increased their chances of winning the AFC East, something they have not done since Jim Kelly was their quarterback. Denver probably wishes Jim Kelly was their QB (more likely John Elway), but you get the picture. The Broncos simply are not on the Bills level. What really drives home the oddsmakers’ feeling towards Denver is the fact the Broncos are the only team in the league that hasn’t been favored in a single game all year. Give them credit for beating Carolina last week, 32-27, which improved their WL record to 5-8. But most of their wins have been against losing teams. Also, in six home games, the Broncos are averaging only 15.7 points/game. That simply will not cut it facing a Bills offense that has really hit its stride of late. Over the past five games, Buffalo is averaging 32.2 points/game. Their defense has allowed just 18.7 points/game the L3 weeks. Oh, by the way, Buffalo’s only loss in the last seven games came on a Hail Mary. Play on BUFFALO

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This is a 10* on BAYERN MUNICH

It’s time for Bayern Munich to step up and show the rest of the Bundesliga “who’s boss.” They are still the presumed favorites to win the league, as they should be considering they’ve finished first every season going back to 2012-13. But it’s Leverkusen that is currently standing tall as the lone remaining unbeaten side in the German top flight. Obviously, no side has ever made it through an entire Bundesliga campaign without suffering at least one defeat. This looks like a likely spot for Leverkusen to suffer their first one. Despite their form, 10 wins in 11 matches across all competitions including 4-0 over Koln last weekend, they are underdogs here for a reason. Bayern Munich just handed Wolfsburg its first defeat of the season, now they look to make it 2 for 2 this week against unbeaten sides and reclaim first place in the Bundesliga. For those that don’t follow European soccer, Bayern Munich is widely regarded as the best club in all of Europe, not just the Bundesliga. They’ve scored 37 goals in 12 matches and have beaten Leverkusen four of the last five head to head. Play on BAYERN MUNICH

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This is an 8* on the OVER

Despite playing only five games, Ohio State is in the Big 10 Championship Game. We have no problem with the conference changing the rules “on the fly” as the Buckeyes are clearly the Big 10’s best team. Not surprisingly, they are huge favorites to beat 6-1 Northwestern. It will be the 14th time OSU has been favored by 20 or more under Ryan Day and they’ve previously gone 8-5 ATS. Only one of those games was decided by fewer than 11 points and it was the 42-35 win over Indiana earlier this year. But it’s still a lot of points to lay in a Conference Championship Game. What we are confident in here is the Buckeyes scoring lots of points. They are averaging 46.6 per game and the fewest they’ve scored in a game this year was 38. Northwestern has a pretty stout defense, however they’ve yet to face an offense this dynamic in 2020. Expect a final score in the neighborhood of 40-20 for this year’s Big 10 Title Game as Ohio State moves on to the College Football Playoff. The Over is 6-2 the last eight times N’western has been a neutral site underdog. Play on OVER

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This is a 9* on OKLAHOMA

Oklahoma is going for revenge in this year’s Big 12 Championship Game. One of their two regular season losses was to Iowa State, 37-30 back on October 3rd. That game was played in Ames and OU was a 7.5-point favorite. What’s notable is the Sooners haven’t lost since. They’ve won six in a row, the last five of which have all come by at least 13 points. OU led Iowa State by double digits (17-6) in the first half of the first meetings only to let the lead slip away at the end. They allowed two touchdown drives in the final eight minutes of the fourth quarter. At the time, it was their second blown lead in as many weeks (also Kansas State). There is no doubt Oklahoma is in a better place now and favorites have dominated these Power 5 Championship Games of late. Since 2015, the underdog has won just twice in 23 Championship Games. Iowa State has had a nice year, but they aren’t as good as OU. The revenge factor is big here. So we’ll lay the short number. Play on OKLAHOMA

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This is a 10* on UTAH 

Utah should easily handle its business Friday night against an Idaho team playing its fifth consecutive road game to start the season. The visiting Vandals have lost three of those four games by double digit margins and consider none of the previous opponents are as strong as the Utes. Utah’s only loss so far was to a good BYU team. They bounced back by beating Utah Valley State 75-67 on Tuesday. While they did not cover, they improved to 3-0 SU here at home and have scored at least 75 points in all three of those games. Idaho comes in averaging just 59.0 points/game. Don’t let Utah’s three-game ATS losing skid scare you. The Utes are 33-17 ATS when taking the court on an ATS losing skid of three games or more. In that last game, they led by 21 at the half. We don’t think they take their foot off the gas this time. The Utes’ have the 8th best turnover margin in the country right now. Idaho’s forecast is not bright as they were predicted to finish LAST in the Big Sky this season. Play on UTAH

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This is a 10* on BUFFALO

Buffalo steamrolled its way to this MAC Championship Game, winning all five of its games by an average of 31.8 points! They are clearly the best team in their conference this year, a claim supported by the fact they are double digit favorites in Friday’s Championship Game against a Ball State team that is also on a five-game win streak. The only game Buffalo didn’t cover this year was against Bowling Green where they were 31-point favorites. They won that game 42-17 and were up bigger before allowing the backdoor cover. Going back to last season, the Bulls have covered seven of their last eight as favorites. RB Jaret Patterson went over 1000 yards rushing despite the team playing just five games. He’s only the 12th back in College Football history to go over 1000 yards in just five games. In addition to all that you’ve already read about them, Buffalo is 17-5 ATS its last 22 MAC games. They are the clear class of the conference this year and will punctuate this 2020 season with a decisive win in the Championship Game. Play on BUFFALO

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This is an 8* on SOUTHERN UTAH

Yes, Dixie State is a Division I school. And they are off to a 3-0 start to the season! Two of those three wins (N Dakota, Denver) were by a total of four points though. We all know the transition to DI won’t be easy for the Trailblazers so now seems like a good time to step in and fade them. Southern Utah is a solid 4-1 so far, although two of their wins were by exactly one point (both vs. Montana). Their only loss was by two points at Loyola Marymount, the opener of the season. The Thunderbirds are 3 for 3 at home and coming off a 10-point win over Utah Valley State. SUU has covered all four of its lined games. It’s somewhat amazing Dixie State was able to beat Denver on Saturday considering they were on the wrong end of a big FT shooting discrepancy. A key to their 3-0 record is their opponents have shot just 21.2% from three. That’s abnormally low. Southern Utah will do better. Much better. Play on SOUTHERN UTAH

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This is a 10* on LA CHARGERS

The Chargers finally won a close one on Sunday, beating the Falcons 20-17 as a one-point favorite. While they are only 4-9 on the year, LA has played much better than their record shows. They had a bad game two weeks ago vs. New England, but seven of their other eight losses have come in one score games. This Thursday night matchup vs. Las Vegas reminds us of how we handicapped the Monday night game between Baltimore and Cleveland. Our view of MNF was that despite the inferior won-loss record, the Ravens were the better team, an assertion backed up by various metrics. The same holds true here. Las Vegas may be 7-6, but they’ve actually been outscored by 41 points. Losers of three of their last four, the Raiders are clearly heading in the wrong direction down the home stretch. The only win in those last four games was a miracle against the winless Jets. The fact the Raiders have been favored only four times prior to this game shows that they’ve overachieved. The defense has been torched for 150 points in those last four games. Chargers QB Justin Herbert should have a big night here. Los Angeles is 8-4 ATS its last 12 Thursday games. Play on LOS ANGELES

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This is an 8* on NORTH TEXAS

North Texas is a big favorite Thursday. But for good reason as they are matched up against a subpar Houston Baptist team that figures to have all sorts of trouble keeping up here in Denton. Houston Baptist has actually done a decent job at covering the spread to this point. They are 4-1 ATS but were +28 or more in three of those games. Their only SU win this year was vs. Champion Baptist. All their losses have been by double digits, four of them by at least 22 points. This will be the second road game in three days after giving up 90 to Rice on Tuesday. The Huskies have also given up 100+ to both Arizona State and SMU. North Texas may not be as good as either of those squads, but the Mean Green are coming off an 81-56 win over Arkansas Pine Bluff. They’ve covered 7 of 10 as home favorites of 12.5 or more. They are 2-0 at home this season and the two wins have been by 54 and 25 points. Play on NORTH TEXAS

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This is an 8* on the OVER

Considering Texas Tech’s defensive prowess, going Over might seem like a “play at your own risk” type situation. But a) the total is low here and b) Kansas can score. The Jayhawks have faced a lot of top teams already and are averaging 81.6 points/game. They are shooting nearly 40% from three! Last time out they went for 95 points. Yes, that was against a terrible Omaha team. But it was also the 4th game of 90 or more points for Kansas this season. We don’t need nearly that many for an Over tonight. Texas Tech has scored 80 or more in four of its seven games. Again, you’ve got to factor in the competition. But asking both Kansas and Tech to score 65 tonight doesn’t seem like it’s asking for much. Kansas likes to play fast, so it will be interesting if they can push the tempo. We think they will - at least enough to have an effect on the scoring. The Over is 6-2 the last eight times Kansas has been an underdog and 7-1 their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record. Texas Tech has that same record against .500 or better foes. Play on OVER

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This is an 8* on MARSHALL

Marshall (4-0) looks to stay unbeaten as Toledo pays a visit to Huntington Wednesday night. We like the home team’s chances as they’ve won all four games by double digits. Toledo has three losses and was beaten by 20 in their last road game. The other two losses were close, but the Rockets have lost both times they were an underdog. There will be no shortage of motivation from the Marshall side as the Thundering Herd have lost three straight times to Toledo. This triple revenge spot begs you to lay the points and we will as the Herd have allowed just 38.5% shooting thus far. They play at a very fast tempo, which will be too much for Toledo to deal with. This was the preseason favorite to win Conference USA, so they are not to be taken lightly. Lay it! Play on MARSHALL

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This is an 8* on COLORADO

For the second time in three days, we’ll lay the points with Colorado. The Buffs easily covered for us Monday in an 81-45 win against Northern Colorado. They were 13.5-point favorites in that game. They’re even bigger favorites today, but of course that means it’s a weaker opponent as well. Omaha has failed to cover five straight and their only SU win during that time came by two against SIU Edwardsville. The other four games were all double digit losses, the most recent coming Friday when they fell by 45 at Kansas. Colorado isn’t Kansas, but they certainly can win this game by half that margin. It helps that Omaha is 3-8 ATS as a road underdog of more than 12.5 points and 0-3 when getting 18.5 to 24. Colorado’s three wins this season have come by an average of 25.7 points. They are 10th in the country, allowing just 55 points/game. Omaha has yet to score more than 67 in a game this year and their losses have come by an average of more than 22 points/game. Colorado’s lone defeat came at the hands of Top 25 Tennessee. Omaha is not even close to the caliber of Tennessee, obviously. Play on COLORADO

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This is a 9* on EVANSVILLE

Two teams that have played a lot of close games thus far will face off tonight in Evansville. The host Purple Aces are looking to make it two in a row at home and they just defeated Eastern Illinois here, 68-65, as a 3.5-point underdog. Before that, they’d lost by 6 at Tenn-Martin (as a 4-point favorite) and Prairie View A&M by three (as a 2.5-pt dog). They’ve also been blown out by Louisville. So it was their first win last Wednesday. The last thing the Purple Aces want is another loss. SE Missouri State is coming off a home and home split with Lipscomb. They covered both games. Every Redhawks game thus far has been decided by eight points or less with the team’s record being 2-2 straight up (and 3-1 against the spread). Key for us is that Evansville has seen its shooting improve every game. SE Missouri State does not defend particularly well, so the Purple Aces are likely in store for their best shooting night of the season so far. Interesting that SE Missouri State has been an underdog in all four of its games. Can’t see a third upset in five games. Play on EVANSVILLE

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This is an 8* on COLORADO

Northern Colorado may be 2-0, but we’d hardly call the likes of Colorado Christian and Regis (MA) “competition.” Here they are going up against the class of the Rocky Mountain State, Colorado, who will be angry coming off an ugly 56-47 loss at Tennessee last week. The Buffaloes were just plain “off” in Knoxville as they finished with a 33.3 field goal percentage. They missed 17 of 22 threes. It must be acknowledged though that Tennessee was the #12 ranked team in the country when that game was played. Just like the step up in class here for Northern Colorado, the step down for Colorado is just as big. The Buffs won their first two games by a combined 35 points and we should be looking at a similar margin here tonight in Boulder where they are 29-6 L35 games. This will be their first home game of the season as well. This one should get ugly in a hurry. Play on COLORADO

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This is a 10* on BALTIMORE

Cleveland is 9-3. Baltimore is 7-5. But make no mistake about it. Baltimore is better. The Ravens have outscored their 12 opponents by 85 points this season, tied for the 5th best differential in the league. The Browns have been OUTSCORED in their 12 games, despite their record and a 4-game win streak. When these AFC North rivals met back in Week 1, Baltimore won handily 38-6. It’s probably also worth noting that Cleveland failed its other AFC North test, losing to Pittsburgh 38-7. So they haven’t really been able to “get it done” against the league’s elite. The keys for the Browns this season have been winning close (6-0 in one-score games) and beating bad teams. Three of the four teams they’ve beaten during this win streak were Houston, Philadelphia and Jacksonville, all of whom are sub-.500. Even when they jumped up big on Tennessee last week, they had to hold on for a 41-35 win. The Ravens looked like their old selves in a 34-17 win over Dallas on Tuesday, running for nearly 300 yards. They are now 6-0 ATS their L6 December games. The Browns are 1-10-1 ATS their past 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Ravens are 4-2 on the road this year, not to mention 14-6 ATS L20. Play on BALTIMORE

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This is a 10* on UNDER

William & Mary has played just one game so far and it was an 86-78 loss to old Colonial rival Old Dominion. The Tribe will now face the Colonials, although again not a conference rival, in George Washington Monday. GW is just 1-4 with the lone win coming against Coppin State. The other four games, losses to Navy, Hampton, UMBC and Delaware, have seen them give up lots of points. Truthfully, it’s been a terrible start for the Colonials. We would never lay points with them, at least right now, but do think the defense is going to improve. Honestly, they haven’t been that bad at the defensive end of the floor, save for the game where they got blitzed by UMBC. Three of the last four opponents have shot less than 41%. William & Mary won’t shoot 50% again like they did vs. ODU. This game was supposed to be played on December 5th, but got rescheduled because of COVID. It’s the first meeting in 17 years between the two Virginia schools. It’ll end up lower-scoring than expected. W&M is 5-1 Under as a road dog of 6.5 to 9 points. Play on UNDER

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This is a 10* on CELTA VIGO

Celta Vigo could really use the three points here. While they’ve won two straight, the Sky Blues are still only two points clear of the relegation zone. They play host to Cadiz Monday afternoon. Cadiz is sitting 6th in the table after shocking Barcelona last week. They’ve picked up 18 points from their 12 La Liga matches. But it’s pretty telling Celta Vigo is the favored side Monday. Cadiz being 6th in the table is certainly surprising and they’ve got a -2 goal differential. They’ve scored only 11 goals this campaign, which is actually the third lowest total in all of La Liga. A 3-1 victory over Granada and 2-0 victory over Athletic Bilbao have us liking Celta Vigo in this one. Cadiz’s recent form isn’t as sharp as they’ve got just one win in their last four matches and two in their last six. Play on CELTA VIGO

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This is a 9* on PITTSBURGH

This line appears to be a bit of an overreaction towards the events of last Monday when the Steelers suffered their first loss of the season and the Bills beat down the 49ers 34-24. Sure enough, the original line for this matchup had Pittsburgh favored by a few points on the road. Now it’s swung in the other direction and we see value on a team that has lost ONLY ONCE this season. We know Pittsburgh hasn’t really looked impressive its last couple games, but remember that both were moved due to Baltimore’s COVID drama. While Buffalo’s offense has looked very good recently, the Steelers’ defense remains one of the best in the league as it is permitting just 17.6 points per game. While Pittsburgh did blow a 14-0 lead against Washington last week, that was more on the offense, which could not score a TD despite five chances from the 1-yard line. If they score there, the Steelers are still undefeated. There were two drives that ended with the Pittsburgh offense turning it over on downs inside the Washington 30-yard line. Mike Tomlin is 17-5 ATS as a road underdog facing a team with a winning record. Play on PITTSBURGH

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This is an 8* on the UNDER

The Saints have gone Under in their last five games. The Eagles have gone Under in their last six games. The total for this game being so low should not be a surprise then, especially because Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts will be making his first NFL start against a defense that has given up a total of just 44 points in its last five games. That New Orleans defense is 1st in the league in yards allowed, 2nd against the run, 4th against the pass and 4th in scoring. They also have the 3rd most sacks while forcing the 7th most turnovers. The Eagles have not scored more than 17 points in any of the last four games and stand little chance of doing so here. Over those last five games, the Saints’ D has allowed just two touchdowns and one was in garbage time last week vs. Atlanta. Remember that Taysom Hill is still the Saints starting QB, so they won’t be putting up a lot of points either. They can simply rely on the run game in what should be an easy victory that won’t require many points. Play on UNDER

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This is an 8* on OVER

Indianapolis should put up a lot of points here against a Raiders defense that has allowed 35, 43 and 28 points the last three weeks. While the 28 points allowed last week were the fewest of the three games, Las Vegas was facing the winless Jets and nearly lost that game. The Colts have scored at least 26 points in four straight games and Baltimore is the only team to hold them below that number in the last seven games. The good news for Las Vegas is they’ve scored 31 or more in four of their last five games. So this should turn into a shootout Sunday in Sin City. The Colts defense had been really strong in the early part of the season, but injuries have started to take their toll. The last three games have seen them allow an average of 32 points. The Over is 9-3 in Raiders’ games this season, the second highest such percentage in the league. So high-scoring games are nothing new to them. Same with the Colts, who are 6-2 Over their last eight games. Both teams could easily go for 30+ here. The Raiders are on a 6-0-1 Over run as home dogs. Play on OVER

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This is a 10* on ARIZONA

If not for the “Hail Murray” vs. Buffalo, Arizona would be on a five-game losing streak entering this week. They are 0-5 ATS those L5 games. It’s been a real “fall from grace” for a team that started the year 5-2. The Giants, now 5-7 on the season, are trending in the other direction. They’ve won four in a row with their defense holding all four opponents to 20 points or less. But despite the recent form of these two teams, we’re backing the Cardinals on Sunday. Colt McCoy may have to start again for the G-Men. While that shockingly worked out in Seattle last week, we don’t see that kind of success sustaining itself. If he does come back, Daniel Jones isn’t that great either. The Giants’ offense has only scored 36 points the last two games. Give them credit for that win up in Seattle, but before that it was a really favorable stretch of games. They were off a bye when they faced Cincinnati without Joe Burrow, but won that game by only two points. Arizona is still the better team here and we’ll lay the short number. The Giants’ special teams have given up a punt return and a safety the last two weeks. New York has had success as a dog this season, but is still just 3-12 ATS as a home dog the past three seasons. Play on ARIZONA

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This is an 8* on TAMPA BAY

Good situation this week for Tampa Bay to pick up a win. For starters, they are coming off a bye. Getting their bye so late in the season may prove advantageous for the stretch run. Perhaps they were running on fumes when they lost to the Rams and Chiefs by identical 27-24 scores in their last two games. Maybe it was a case of facing two really good teams. Whatever the reason, we don’t see the Bucs losing three in a row at home. While they’ve struggled against top teams in the league like the Saints, Rams and Chiefs, Tampa Bay has done well against everyone else. Minnesota is on a 5-1 surge, but their last four wins have been against Detroit, Chicago, Carolina and Jacksonville and most of those games were close. Remember they lost at home to Dallas. The most impressive win, over Green Bay, came after a bye. Tough matchup for Vikings RB Dalvin Cook this week as he faces the league’s top ranked run defense, which is allowing just 74 yards per game. Tom Brady is an incredible 46-19 ATS after a SU loss including 4-0 with the Bucs. The Vikings young secondary is likely to struggle against the Tampa receivers. Play on TAMPA BAY

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This is a 10* on UNDER

Oregon State has put together four straight ATS wins, all one score games. One of them was an upset over rival Oregon. Last week they played without their star running back and still stayed within six of Utah - as 14-point underdogs. The Beavers have been double digit dogs in three of those wins.They are underdogs again this week, although not by double digits, to a Stanford team they’ve lost to 10 straight times. The Cardinal are coming off a big win against Washington last week, their second victory in a row after opening 0-2. RB Jefferson is going to return this week for the Beavers, but they have a backup QB and that makes the offense one-dimensional and easier to prepare for. Stanford has four injured players, two of them wide receivers. This game was going to take place in Palo Alto, but had to be moved to Corvallis due to COVID protocols in California. This will be a relatively low-scoring game. Play on UNDER

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This is a 10* on FIZIEV

Get ready for a battle of lightweights. Moicano comes in at 14-3 after a successful debut at 155 lbs. It took him just 44 seconds to submit Damir Hadzovic back in March. But let’s not forget about the unceremonious end to his run at featherweight. Consecutive knockout losses in 2019 had many questioning Moicano’s future. His lone hope here vs. Fiziev is to get the fight on the mat. Because when it comes to striking, Fiziev has the clear edge. While Fiziev lost his UFC debut back in April of last year, he’s since rebounded to scratch out decision victories over Alex White and Marc Diakese. He’s got just the one loss in his career (8-1) and of these two fighters, Fiziev is the one with more upside. With a Muay Thai background, this is a good matchup for the favorite. Play on FIZIEV

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This is a 9* on UCLA

Southern Cal looked especially good on Sunday (we had them!) as a big passing day from QB Slovis (5 TD passes!) allowed them to overwhelm Washington State 38-13. A win this week, against a UCLA team they’ve now been favored against 18 of the last 19 seasons, sends the Trojans through to the Pac 12 Championship. But this game is a lot more tricky than it seems. USC is playing on short rest. UCLA is 3-2 with both losses occurring on the road in one-possession games. The Bruins are 4-0 ATS the last four games and the only straight up loss they’ve suffered during that time was by three at Oregon, a game which they outgained the opponent only to be undone by four turnovers. The Bruins come into Saturday as winners of two in a row, having beaten Arizona and Arizona State. USC could not run the ball last week, gaining just 5 yards on the ground, and we don’t expect them to have much success in that department this week either. Home team is 12-5 ATS the last 17 meetings and USC is just 1-5-1 ATS its last seven as a road favorite. Play on UCLA

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This is an 8* on MEMPHIS

The start time for this game was bumped back a few hours, but we assure you things will be worth the wait as Memphis looks to upset Houston. Memphis getting points at the Liberty Bowl is not something you’ll see very often. There’s a reason for that. They’ve won 14 straight home games, a win streak that stretches back to October 2018. The Tigers last home loss was by one point to a UCF team that finished the regular season 12-0. While not as good as they were last season, Memphis is still 5-0 at home where they are averaging 43.9 points and giving up only 29.8. They beat UCF here earlier this season. They’ve defeated Houston four years in a row, scoring at least 42 points in all four wins. Houston has never really been able to get on track in 2020 due to COVID-19 and contact tracing. They’ve played only six games with the most recent being over a month ago. This is a tough ask to lay points on the road against a team that’s been so dominant on its home field. The Cougars are 4-10 ATS as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points, losing eight of those games outright. They are also 0-3 SU and ATS the L3 times playing with 2 or more weeks rest. Play on MEMPHIS

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This is an 8* on COASTAL CAROLINA

For Coastal Carolina, the plan for last week was always to “make a statement.” At first they thought it would be at the expense of Liberty, a fellow non-P5 school with an excellent record. But when Liberty had to bail due to COVID, undefeated BYU stepped up and took their place. Few gave the Chanticleers a chance on such short notice (they were 10.5-point underdogs), but all they ended up doing was pull off the biggest win in school history, defeating BYU 22-17. Now 10-0, Coastal Carolina looks to finish the regular season undefeated by winning at Troy. The Sun Belt Championship Game (vs. Louisiana) awaits the Chanticleers next weekend. But don’t expect any kind of “look ahead” given that CC is looking to stay undefeated. Troy, who may be without their starting QB, simply doesn’t score enough to keep pace with a team like the Chanticleers. Before shutting out South Alabama 29-0 last week, the Trojans had scored just 13, 17 and 10 points their previous three games, all losses. Coastal Carolina is winning by an average of almost three touchdowns per game this season. Play on COASTAL CAROLINA

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This is an 8* on FLORIDA STATE

It’s Florida and Florida State starting your Saturday in College Basketball. The two Sunshine State rivals have combined to go 5-0 thus far. Florida (3-0) has not been seriously tested while FSU did just defeat Indiana 69-67 here in Tallahassee, as part of the Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge. The Seminoles won that game despite poor shooting, but their defense stepped up to hold IU to 36% from the field. In Florida’s last game, their opponent shot just 19.6%! But that was Stetson, not Florida State, who comes in as the #20 ranked team in the country. The ‘Noles are looking for a 7th straight win over the Gators. The previous six have been by an average of 10 points. So we’ll gladly lay the short number in this one. FSU does a great job on the glass, collecting 18 offensive rebounds per game and they are 6th in the country in offensive rebound percentage. Play on FLORIDA STATE

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This is an 8* on SAN JOSE STATE 

The number of unbeaten teams across College Football has dwindled down to nine with five of those teams having played five or less games. San Jose State is one of the big surprises on that list. Last week the Spartans were supposed to host Hawaii but were instead forced to head out to Honolulu. They won anyway, 35-24, to improve to 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS. Once again they’ve “lost” a home game this week as they’ll face Nevada in Las Vegas (at least it’s not Reno) at Sam Boyd Stadium. Still we expect this nice story to continue with SJSU picking up another victory. Nevada was lucky to defeat Fresno State 37-26 last week as the defense gave up almost 600 yards! Turnovers really bailed them out, but that’s not a reliable blueprint for success. San Jose State has a pretty good defense and the team is 14-5 ATS its last 19 Mountain West games. Play on SAN JOSE STATE 

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This is a 10* on DAVIDSON 

We don’t envision Davidson having much trouble in this non-conference home game. The Wildcats have actually owned Georgia Southern through the years, posting an 18-7 ATS head to head mark, which includes 9-2 at home. Georgia Southern comes into Friday still sporting an unblemished won-loss record (3-0), but they haven’t played anybody of note and almost lost to USC Upstate last week. Davidson is 2-2 but those two losses were by a combined three points and on a neutral court to Texas and Providence. The Wildcats beat UNLV in their last game and have had more than a week off to prepare for this first home game in nearly three weeks. That USC Upstate team that Georgia Southern barely beat is 0-4. Yet they led the Eagles by as many as nine points in the second half. The game was decided on a three-point play in the final second. Lay the points with confidence in this one. Play on DAVIDSON

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This is a 10* on UNDER

While North Texas is technically the “road team” for this game, it is being played at Apogee Stadium in Denton, which is their home. This matchup was originally going to take place on October 31st in El Paso before having to be rescheduled. North Texas has been fortunate in that this is the seventh time in nine games they’ve gotten to play at home. But they haven’t taken advantage, going just 2-4 in Denton. It’s been a rough last two weeks for the Mean Green as they’ve scored just 48 total points while giving up 40+ in a pair of losses. But we look for the defense to get a reprieve this week against a rusty UTEP offense that has not taken the field in four weeks. It’s not as if the Miners were doing much offensively before COVID wreaked havoc on their schedule. They come in averaging only 20.1 points/game. The UTEP defense has done a pretty good job at stopping the run though and that is critical when facing this North Texas offense. We see this ending up as a surprisingly low-scoring affair. Play on UNDER

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This is a 9* on SETON HALL

Big East play commences Friday with Seton Hall hosting St. John’s. The hosts are 3-3 on the year and coming off an easy 33-point win against Wagner. They lost by 1 at Louisville in the first game of the season. Both home games have been blowouts as they also beat Iona by 22. St. John’s is a more difficult opponent compared to Wagner and Iona, however the Red Storm seem to be getting a bit too much respect from the oddsmakers and bettors for this conference road game. The Red Storm could barely beat Rider at home three days ago (won by only three) and have two other victories so far by four points or less. So while 5-1, the Johnnies could easily have a worse record right now. Seton Hall has dominated this Big East rivalry when hosting, going 14-2 SU and 13-3 ATS. They swept the season series last year, which included a 16-point win at home. They’ve won 8 of 10 overall against St. John’s and played a harder non-conference schedule. St. John’s was only 5-13 in Big East play last season. Play on SETON HALL

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This is a 10* on SAN FRANCISCO

With the NCAA Tournament being cancelled in March, one of the teams you felt for the most was San Francisco. The Dons had a breakout season in 2019-20, going 22-12 and there was a decent shot they were going to get an at-large bid. Keep in mind this program has been to the Big Dance just ONE time since 1982 and that was in 1998. This year, the Dons already have two losses, one of them a real “head-scratcher” to UMass-Lowell in the first game of the season. But they’ve also shown what they are capable of by beating then #4 Virginia on a neutral floor. The Dons have had a few extra days off to prepare here as Sunday’s game vs. Nevada was cancelled because of COVID. We ran with Long Beach State on Sunday and they covered against Seattle, but that was a much weaker opponent. The 49ers have really struggled shooting the ball in their first two games and were blown out by another WCC team (Loyola Marymount) in their first game (lost by 24). San Francisco is a better team than Loyola Marymount. Play on SAN FRANCISCO

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This is a 10* on LA RAMS

As we learned (the hard way) on Sunday, this Rams team is pretty good. They went into Arizona and beat the Cardinals 38-28. But really it wasn’t even that close as the Rams put up 463 total yards while allowing just 232. In terms of outgaining opponents on a per play basis, Los Angeles is one of the best teams in the league. They are now 8-4, tied with Seattle atop the NFC West standings. We like them to handle their business here against the Patriots. The Rams’ defense has allowed an average of just 15.0 points in five home games. No team has been stingier at home this season. While New England is off a 45-0 win against the Chargers, that point total was greatly aided by two special teams touchdowns. The Patriots offense is averaging only 235 yards the last two weeks despite winning both games. You may remember that the Rams beat the Patriots in the Super Bowl back in 2002. Well, they have not beaten them since, losing five straight times! That streak is put to bed here as the home team shows off its superiority Thursday night. Play on LA RAMS

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This is a 10* on PITT

Pittsburgh (5-5) looks to wrap up the regular season with an above-.500 record as they play at Georgia Tech Thursday night. This should be a big offensive night for the Panthers as QB Kenny Pickett is back in the fold and will be facing a defense that’s giving up an ugly 42.6 points at home this year. With Pickett in the starting lineup, the Panthers are 5-3 this season. One of those losses was to Clemson two weeks ago. The other two were by a combined two points. So far Pickett has thrown for more than 2200 yards with 12 TD passes. Half of his interceptions came against Clemson. He’s completing 62% of his passes. Georgia Tech, who will wrap up its season next week in Miami, is a pretty lousy 3-6 after losing by 10 at NC State Saturday. The Yellow Jackets have been remarkably inconsistent in 2020 and there’s no reason to believe they’ll “show up” here. The offense has a horrible turnover problem and it should be “tough sledding” against a Pitt defense that’s allowing only 2.8 yards/rush and leads the country in sacks. As a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points, Pitt is 6-3 SU and ATS its L9. As an underdog of 3.5 to 10 pts, Ga Tech is 1-7 SU and ATS L8. Play on PITTSBURGH

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This is an 8* on LIPSCOMB

Lipscomb is looking to snap a four-game losing skid on Wednesday as it hosts SE Missouri State. In an interesting twist, these teams just played Monday. SE Missouri State won 82-77 as a 4-point home underdog despite Lipscomb shooting an impressive 55% from the field. One might think the Bisons could be in some trouble here given how hard it is to duplicate that kind of shooting. But we don’t see them taking 11 fewer shots than SE Missouri State again. This is Lipscomb’s first home game so a 1-4 start really isn’t that concerning. Two of the losses were close and the other two were at Cincinnati and Arkansas. It’s tough to beat the same opponent twice in a row and it’s not as if SE Missouri State is a good team. This will be the 4th straight game they’re underdogs and we see some value here as Lipscomb went off as the favorite, on the road, in that first meeting. Expect a double digit win by the home team Wednesday. Play on LIPSCOMB

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This is a 10* on BELLARMINE

Don’t feel bad if you’ve never heard of Bellarmine. The University, located in Louisville, KY, is new to Division I this season. They just picked up their first ever DI victory two days ago, beating Howard 84-63. This will be their first ever home game as a DI school, so it’s a pretty big deal (even without fans present). They host Chattanooga, who has opened 4-0. Besides Howard, the Knights’ only other game thus far was against Duke and they were actually competitive in the first half of that game. Despite being unbeaten, Chattanooga is in a bit of a tough situation here playing its second road game in three days. They won at Middle Tennessee Monday 80-70 as two-point pups. That victory seems to have influenced this line greatly, but we see value on what should be a fired up Bellarmine team. Play on BELLARMINE

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This is a 10* on OVER

USC looks to rebound from its first loss of the season here, hosting UC Irvine. The Trojans fell 61-58 to UConn last Thursday, shooting only 35.8% in the process. That wasn’t just a season-low in FG%, it was also the 1st time the Trojans were held below 50% overall shooting in a game this year. Their defense has been dominant in holding three straight opponents below 35% shooting. But it’s hard to keep doing that. UC Irvine is off a win where it scored over 100 points, though the opponent (La Sierra?) had a lot to do with that. Still we expect the Anteaters to score more than they’re expected to tonight. The problem will be that they’ve allowed over 80 PPG to Division I opponents thus far and Southern Cal figures to have a big bounce back game at the offensive end. The Over is 4-0 in UC Irvine’s last four road games and 5-1 their last six as an underdog. Play OVER

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This is an 8* on ILLINOIS

#6 Illinois takes on #10 Duke as part of the Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge on Tuesday. This is also one of two matchups of Top 10 opponents on tonight’s card (Creighton-Kansas). The Illini will be looking to bounce back from an ugly 89-62 defeat they suffered at the hands of #2 Baylor last week. Duke also knows what it’s like to taste defeat as they fell last Tuesday to Michigan State. That game was played in Cameron and while the Blue Devils have since bounced back (76-54 win over Bellarmine), that win really proves nothing. Duke is 0-3 ATS and seemingly overrated at #10 in the polls. A second home loss to a top 10 Big 10 opponent is certainly not out of the realm of possibility here as Illinois is 4-1 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points. We like what we saw from the Illini in the first few games and believe them to be a legit Top 10 team. We don’t feel the same about Duke right now as they’ve used eight different players in the starting five so far and had just two double digit scorers in the last game. They’re young. Play on ILLINOIS

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This is a 10* on OVER

Lamar Jackson is off the COVID-19 list, which means we can just assume he’s going to start tonight for the Ravens. That’s bad news for a Cowboys defense that’s already giving up 32.6 points/game, which is the most in the league this season. Particularly concerning for the Cowboys is a run defense which is last in the league, allowing 156.4 yards per game. Baltimore will get both Mark Ingram and JK Dobbins back this week after both missed last week’s loss in Pittsburgh. As a team, the Ravens have run for 100+ yards in 34 consecutive games. So they’re going to move the ball in this game. Last time we saw Dallas they allowed 41 against Washington on Thanksgiving Day. That horrid effort dropped them to 3-8 on the year. With Andy Dalton as the starting QB, you may not be expecting much from the Cowboys offense tonight. But they did put up 31 on the Vikings two weeks ago. Scoring only 16 against an excellent Washington defense (did you see last night?) should not be viewed as a big deal. The Ravens defense has given up at least 28 points in three of their last six games. The Over is 4-1 the last five times Baltimore has been off a loss. Play on OVER

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This is a 7* on the OVER

As was expected, Barcelona and Juventus have dominated Group G of the Champions League. Both have already booked their spot in the knockout stage with Barca a perfect 5-0 and Juventus 4-0-1. It would take one heck of a performance by “The Old Lady” (Juventus) on Tuesday to wrest away the top spot in the Group. This is because Barca has an aggregate score of 16-2 in winning their first five five fixtures. Juventus’ goal differential is only +7. Of course, the best way to rectify that discrepancy is to score plenty of goals here. Problem is that Barca has not lost in the Group Stage of the UCL since 2016-17, a span of 25 matches. They are also unbeaten in 38 straight matches at home in European competition. They won the reverse fixture 2-0 back on October 28th. But if anyone can run up a big score here, it would be Juventus, who put the ball in the back of the net three times in their last UCL fixture. There’s the issue of Barca’s La Liga inconsistency creeping in here. Both managers are expected to select strong lineups. We’re on the Over. Play on OVER

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This is an 8* on IONA

Iona and Morgan State are both 1-1 having lost their respective openers and then coming back to win the second time out. But while the records are the same, the paths were very different. Iona has played Seton Hall and Hofstra, both on the road. Morgan State has faced Mt. St. Marys and Lincoln PA, both at home. Before you go writing off Hofstra as a strong opponent, Iona was an 8.5-point underdog against them. By the way, the Gaels are now being coached by Rick Pitino. Now he’s favored for the first time in almost three years. Given that Morgan State just allowed 94 to Lincoln PA after scoring only 55 vs. MSM, this should be an easy one for Pitino’s team. Iona leads all MAAC teams, scoring 73 points/game. They have three players that account for 67 percent of the scoring. Isaiah Ross is their best player as he’s shooting 52% from three and 99% from the free throw line. Iona is 4-0 all-time vs. Morgan State and should take advantage of a Bears team that is 0 for its last 5 ATS when playing with 5 or 6 days rest. Play on IONA

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This is a 10* on OVER

Because of Covid, the 49ers have lost their home field advantage. This game is being played in Arizona (Cardinals stadium) as will next week’s “home game” vs. Washington. That’s a pretty significant disadvantage for the stretch run, although the Niners did just go on the road and beat a very good Rams team last week. Buffalo has already played once here in Arizona and that’s a game they’d like to forget as they lost on the infamous “Hail Murray.” If you recall, that was a high scoring game (32-30) as are most Bills games with the average number of total points scored being 52.8. That’s noticeably higher than the total set for tonight. The 49ers average 27.2 points/game at home, which is up from what they are averaging on the road. A key for them last week was that WR Deebo Samuel, who leads the league in yards after catch, returned to the lineup. The Over is 7-3-1 for the Bills this season including 7-0-1 when they are off a win. (They put up 27 in beating the Chargers last Sunday). Play on OVER

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This is an 8* on HARTFORD

After starting 0-2 (losses to UConn and Villanova), Hartford has started to gain some momentum with back to back wins. One of those was against Fairfield, who they’ll play again tonight. Fairfield is 0-3 and while they’ve been “in” the last two games (lost 66-61 to Hartford), it’s tough to imagine the Stags winning on the road tonight after the lost to Hartford at home. Neither team shot well in the first meeting, although Fairfield did make 7 of its 18 three-point attempts while Hartford was just 8 of 28. We don’t see them shooting that much better from distance now that they’re the road team nor do we believe they’ll hold a +9 edge in free throw attempts like they enjoyed last week. Really, the fact Fairfield couldn’t beat this Hartford team at home is a bad sign. The Stags have lost 45 of their last 66 games overall including 8-23 on the road. Play on HARTFORD

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Ths is a 9* on KC

Kansas City has won three straight close games. They beat Carolina by 2, Las Vegas by 4 and Tampa Bay by 3. But really the only game they were in danger of losing was the one in Vegas. They never trailed in Tampa last week and failed to cover only because of a garbage time TD. We see the Chiefs having no problems beating a TERRIBLE Denver team this week. The Broncos infamously had “no QB” last week vs. the Saints and that went as well you’d expect. They lost 31-3 at home. Just to illustrate how far apart these two AFC West sides are - Kansas City has been favored in 10 of 11 games this year while Denver has been an underdog in all 11. The Chiefs have also beaten the Broncos 10 straight times including 43-16 earlier in the year. That was the third straight win by at least 20 in this division rivalry. KC is 8-1-1 ATS in those 10 meetings. It really doesn’t matter who plays QB for Denver this week, they simply are incapable of scoring enough to stay within the spread against the Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes vs. Drew Lock is a major mismatch in favor of the home team. Play on KANSAS CITY

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analysis to follow

This is a 10* on LBSU

Long Beach State’s season didn’t get off to a good start as they lost by 24 at Loyola Marymount on Friday. But the 49ers have what looks to be their easiest game of the non-conference slate here on Sunday as they host a Seattle team that’s coming off two straight double digit losses, the more recent coming by 26 against UCLA. Coach Dan Monson has been known for challenging his team with tough non-conference schedules ever since he arrived here in Long Beach back in 2007. The 49ers didn’t “show up” for the season opener, but they will for what is their lone home game between now and the 1st of the year. This is a shockingly low spread in our eyes, but we’ll take it as LBSU is 5-0 (straight up) the past three seasons as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. They’ve won over two-thirds of the time in that role. Seattle is shooting below 30% from three-point range so far. LBSU has revenge for an ugly 22-point loss up the coast from last season. Play on LONG BEACH STATE

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This is an 8* on ARIZONA

Arizona is 6-5. But if not for a Hail Mary against Buffalo three weeks ago, they’d be below .500 and on a four-game losing streak entering this week. The Cardinals have struggled when favored this season, going just 2-5 ATS as chalk. So we were quite pleased at the early line movement for this NFC West showdown with the Rams. This is the first of two meetings between these teams. The Rams are 7-4, but they too suffered an upset loss last week - 23-20 to San Francisco. The Rams defense hasn’t been as good on the road (23.3 PPG allowed vs. 15.0 at home), which is good news for Kyler Murray and the Arizona offense. Back to the spread, the Cardinals are 12-6-1 ATS as an underdog for coach Kingsbury. We look for Arizona to snap its four-game ATS losing streak this week and probably its six-game (straight up) losing streak to the Rams. We don’t think that LA should be favored in this game. Play on ARIZONA

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This is a 10* on OVER

Even with Kyler Murray nursing a shoulder injury, we think there’s going to be plenty of offense in this game -- from both sides. The good news for Murray and the Cardinals is that this game is at home. The Rams defense just hasn’t been as good on the road as it's been at home. They give up 23.3 points/game on the road compared to just 15.0 in Los Angeles. Arizona is one of the best rushing teams as they lead the league in yards per attempt and are 4th overall in rushing yards. They and the Rams both run up-tempo offense, which is conducive to the game going Over. All five times that Arizona has covered as a home dog for Kingsbury, the game has gone Over. (We like the Cardinals to cover this week). The Rams may have the highest Under percentage in the league this season (tied with Chicago at 8-2) but something to keep in mind is the Under is 5-0 when they’re at home. Again, this game is being played in Arizona, not LA. Play on OVER

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This is an 8* on TENNESSEE

Cleveland is an exceptionally weak 8-3 team. Let’s start with the fact they’ve given up more points than they’ve scored. Not even 4-7 Atlanta can say that! What the Browns have been doing is winning the games “they should” (i.e. when favored) and usually close. They are 7-1 SU as favorites in 2020. However their last four wins, which were against Jacksonville, Houston, Philadelphia and Cincinnati (all teams with losing records) have come by a combined 13 points (none by more than five points). The Browns are not favored this week against a fellow 8-3 team in Tennessee. They lost by 32 at Baltimore and 31 at Pittsburgh. That’s something that jumps out to us, as the Titans played both teams tough, even defeating the Ravens (with Lamar Jackson) on the road. The Titans looked GREAT last week in putting up 45 points on a short-handed Colts defense. Ryan Tannehill has proven himself to be a very good NFL QB (certainly better than Baker Mayfield) and a key to his success is not turning the ball over. Tennessee has the fewest number of giveaways in the league right now. They’ll win comfortably on Sunday. Play on TENNESSEE

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This is an 8* on CINCINNATI

Cincinnati’s straight up record is just 2-8-1. But this is a team that competes. They are 7-4 ATS with two of the non-covers coming vs. league heavyweights Baltimore and Pittsburgh. Just look at what they did last week. Playing for the first time without Joe Burrow (OFY), they were able to stay within the 6.5-point spread against the Giants, losing only 19-17. Now it took a special teams touchdown to do that, but give credit to a defense that has allowed 20 points or fewer in three of its last four games. We laid the points with Miami last week but did so against a completely inept (and winless) Jets team. This week’s spread is higher and we just don’t see the Dolphins as a team you’d want to lay double digits with. It’s only the fifth time Miami has been favored all season. Other than against the Jets, they have not had to lay more than four to any opponent. This is the first game where they’ve had to lay 10 or more in over a decade! We don’t know who the starting QB will be for the Dolphins, but will take the points anyway in what figures to be another close loss for Cincinnati. Play on CINCINNATI

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This is a 10* on UNDER

Colorado and Arizona have gotten off to very different starts. Colorado is 3-0 and they look to keep rolling here against an 0-3 Arizona team that will be an underdog for the 19th time in 23 games under Kevin Sumlin against Power 5 competition. ‘Zona hasn’t fared too well as a dog, going just 4-15 straight up. They’ve lost a school-record 10 in a row, dating back to last season. They haven’t covered either of the last two weeks, losing by 17 points both times. Colorado is 3-0 ATS as well as SU, so it’s not a surprise that the line has moved in their direction all week long. But we’re not about to lay this many with a team that has won by only 10, 3 and 6 points. Two of those games, the Buffaloes were the underdog. Neither of these offenses are all that explosive as the Buffs have just one play of 40+ yards while the Wildcats have just one play of 34+ yards. Colorado’s offense is excellent at dominating the time of possession, but it’s red zone efficiency (13 for 13 with 11 touchdowns) isn’t likely to be maintained moving forward. That has us on the Under this week. Both teams have seen their point totals decrease every game. Arizona has an injury at QB. Play on UNDER

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This is a 9* on VIRGINIA

We think it's fair to say that both Boston College and Virginia have surpassed expectations in 2020. Boston College is 6-4, pulling some upsets along the way. First year coach Jeff Hafley has done a good job as has his QB Phil Jurkovec. But Jurkovec and top rusher David Bailey suffered injuries in last week’s win over Louisville. While both are listed atop their respective depth charts, the injuries are something worth monitoring. Virginia is going to be highly motivated for this game as they have never beaten BC in six all-time matchups. Getting back to this season, the Cavaliers have covered four straight, winning the last three straight up and should be fresh off a bye week. They were supposed to have faced Florida State last week, but that didn’t happen. Before that they face Abilene Christian so it’s been several weeks since they’ve been tested. The fact the Cavs beat North Carolina here at home carries a lot of weight with us as does their 16-2 SU record in the last 18 home games (12-5-1 ATS). When playing with at least two weeks rest, Virginia is 5-0 ATS the past three seasons. Play on VIRGINIA

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This is an 8* on RUTGERS

Penn State finally broke into the win column as it defeated another struggling “blue blood” (Michigan) 27-17 on the road. That was also the first time all season that the Nittany Lions covered the spread. While not as bad as their record indicates, last week’s performance didn’t say to us that PSU was anywhere close to deserving of its Top 15 preseason ranking. It’s back to laying double digits this week, on the road, against a Rutgers team that’s been competitive in 2020. The Scarlet Knights are 4-1 ATS as underdogs so far and just pulled their second upset of the season, beating Purdue 37-30 last week in West Lafayette. Before that, Rutgers had suffered close losses to Michigan (49-43) and Illinois (23-20), the former being a multi-overtime affair. So we don’t see the Scarlet Knights getting blown out at home here. After getting the proverbial “monkey off their back” last week, there’s going to be a tendency for Penn State to “ease up” this week. They’ve covered just one of the last five times they’ve been a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points. You’d have to go back to September 2018 to find the last time the Nittany Lions covered the spread in two straight games. Play on RUTGERS

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This is an 8* on OK State

Oklahoma State is set to meet TCU this week as the Cowboys look to further distance themselves from the beating they took from rival Oklahoma in Bedlam two weeks ago. Minus their top two running backs, the Pokes still were able to put up 50 points and over 500 yards last week in a win over Texas Tech. They didn’t cover, but that’s because they were laying double digits and gave up two late touchdowns to the Red Raiders to make it a 50-44 final. TCU, who is just 5-11 ATS its last 16 home games, doesn’t have the kind of firepower to keep pace here. Though they did score 59 last week, that was against Kansas, so it really “doesn’t count.” They also scored three non-offensive touchdowns in that contest. Oklahoma State is certainly better than the last three teams TCU has beaten and the Cowboys have won 10 of their last 12 games when the line is a field goal or less either way. The Horned Frogs have been hit hard by COVID and were missing upwards of 30 players last week. That’s not good. Play on OKLAHOMA STATE

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This is an 8* on MARSHALL

Marshall is still undefeated (7-0) and ranked 21st in the latest College Football Playoff rankings. They’re not getting much respect nationwide (they are 15th in both AP & Coaches Polls), but they could probably care less. The Thundering Herd are winning by an average of 27.3 points/game and have covered all but two times. One of those two ATS losses was as a 44-point favorite vs. UMass, a game they won 51-10. The other was a 20-9 win over an FAU team that has a really good defense. Rice does not have a good defense nor are they getting 44 points this week in Huntington. This will be just game #4 for the Owls, whose season did not get underway until October 24th. They played just one game in November and lost 27-17 to North Texas. The three teams Rice has played - Middle Tennessee, Southern Miss and North Texas - are all terrible and in no way prepares them for this huge step up in class. Marshall has been off for 21 days and looking to beat up on somebody. Rice will oblige. Play on MARSHALL

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This is a 10* on MINNESOTA

Big time mismatch here as Minnesota is 3-0 while North Dakota State is 0-2. You might be thinking that the large point spread could be of “assistance” to the Fighting Hawks on Friday, but you’d be wrong as they are 0-6 ATS their past six chances as a road underdog of at least 12.5 points. Not only did ND suffer a double digit loss in the season opener at Miami (OH), they lost to a team named Dixie State just two days ago. That’s a brand new team to Division I and the fact ND was just a three-point favorite to begin with speaks volumes about the state of this program. Meanwhile, Minnesota is averaging 84.7 points in three games. They just beat Loyola Marymount twice. While they didn’t cover the second time, they held LMU below 25% shooting from three-point range. That coupled with an explosive offense should result in an easy win Friday. The Gophers got called for a lot of fouls in their last game, which is why that game stayed so close. Don’t see them getting whistled as much tonight at home and against a really bad team, that means a blowout is coming. Play on MINNESOTA

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This is an 8* on the OVER

The Sun Belt is really strong at the top this year. The conference currently boasts two Top 25 teams and neither is Appalachian State, who has been the standard-bearer the last couple seasons. It should be a good one Friday night in Boone, NC as App State hosts #25 Louisiana, who will be playing in the Conference Championship Game on December 19th against a Coastal Carolina team that might still be undefeated. It’ll be the third straight year for Louisiana in that game. They’ve never won it, nor have they ever defeated Appalachian State (0-8) since they became conference rivals. It won’t be easy this time either though they do average 35.0 points/game after scoring 70 last week. On the flip side, look for Appalachian State to move the ball in this game via the run. The Mountaineers are averaging 256 rushing yards per game. That’s a problem for a Louisiana defense that is allowing 170 rushing yards per game. The Ragin Cajuns have already permitted 16 rushing touchdowns and when they faced Coastal Carolina earlier in the year, they allowed 200+ yards on the ground and a pair of touchdowns. Two offenses averaging more than 30 points/game merit a total higher than this. Play on the OVER

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This is a 10* on UTAH STATE

Utah State is now 1-4 on the season as they recorded their first win of the season last Thursday, beating New Mexico by a score of 41-24. The Aggies get another home game this week, this time against an Air Force team that was supposed to play last Thursday as well, but didn’t. Their game vs. Colorado State was one of many games cancelled/postponed because of COVID-19. That means the Falcons played just one game in November. They made it count with a 28-0 shutout of the same New Mexico team that Utah State just defeated. Now that both Mountain West sides have proven they can dominate a winless team, let’s see what they can do against one another. The spread just seems too high for an Air Force team playing on the road with just four games under its belt. While it’s true that Utah State has played only five games, they haven’t had much interruption since their season began. For Air Force, this is only the second game in five weeks. Historically, they haven’t been good as road favorites (2-4 ATS L6) or on Thursdays (7-13 SU/ATS). Last week’s win should give Utah State some confidence that they can keep this one close. Play on UTAH STATE

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This is an 8* on SOUTHERN UTAH

Perhaps you’re watching “Big Sky” (on ABC) but we expect no real surprises here in the conference that bears that show’s namesake. Southern Utah should be able to defeat Montana at home as the Golden Grizzlies appear to be a bit shorthanded for their conference opener and did not look good against USC on Saturday, which is the only game that they have played. Montana was held to 62 points on 33.9% shooting and then got torched on the defensive end, allowing USC to shoot 50%. They really struggled to defend the three-point line in that game. Look for that to be a problem here against a Southern Utah outfit that has shot the lights out in two games, making almost 42% of their 3PA. The Thunderbirds have scored 83 and 95 points in their two games. These Big Sky rivals played two close games last season with the road team winning both times. But Southern Utah has won 21 of its past 30 at home and seems like a good value tonight. Play on SOUTHERN UTAH

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This is a 10* on VA TECH

Virginia Tech should not encounter much resistance tonight when it goes up against VMI, a team that traditionally gives up a lot of points. In their lone game thus far against meaningful competition, the Keydets gave up 86 points to Penn State. They won their other two contests, but those were against St. Andrews and Longwood. Virginia Tech is a legit Top 25 team right now (ranked #16) that has already beaten Villanova 81-73 as a nine-point underdog. The Hokies have also beaten VMI each of the past two seasons, both times by double digits. The Hokies followed their big upset of Villanova with a 75-68 win over South Florida on Sunday and haven’t played since, so they should be well rested. VMI played two nights ago, which won’t do them any favors tonight. That they lost by 30 to Penn State is particularly instructive when handicapping this matchup. This is a team predicted to finish 9th in the 10-team Southern Conference. The Hokies are shooting almost 50% through three games and should score at will in this one. Play on VIRGINIA TECH

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This is an 8* on UNDER

Arkansas will look to make it 3 for 3 to open the year when they host UT Arlington Wednesday night. The Razorbacks opened the season by winning by 80 (!) against Miss Valley State and then by 15 against North Texas. UT Arlington is unbeaten against the spread (3-0), but just 1-2 straight up as they suffered close losses to Oklahoma State and Louisiana Tech before beating Northwestern State on Saturday. The fact that Arkansas has scored 142 points in a game is something that caused the oddsmakers to pay attention. So expect high totals the next few games. But the offense quickly came back down to Earth against North Texas, scoring “only” 69 points. They also did a really solid job defensively in that game. Giving up an average of less than 60 points on 33% shooting is something we like to see. UT Arlington has gone Under eight straight times as a road underdog of 12.5 or more points. They are shooting only 29% from three so far. Arkansas is 11-3 Under as a home favorite of more than 12 points. Number is too high here. Play on UNDER

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This is an 8* on FLORIDA STATE

Another game that won’t be close on Wednesday’s NCAAB slate is when Florida State hosts North Florida. The 22nd ranked Seminoles will be opening their season tonight while North Florida is already 0-3. All three losses for the Ospreys have been blowouts with them going down to Eastern Kentucky by 13, NC State by 35 and Miami by 18. That middle result is what sticks out to us. Florida State is better than all three teams North Florida has faced so far and thus this figures to turn into another long night. While the ‘Noles did lose a couple of lottery picks to the NBA, they did bring in Scottie Barnes, the highest rated recruit ever to come to Tallahassee. FSU typically defends very well and has scored 98 and 95 points the last two years on North Florida. This is precisely the kind of opponent you want to open your season against. Play on FLORIDA STATE

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This is an 8* on OHIO STATE

We expect Ohio State to have little difficulty here blowing out Morehead State. The 23rd ranked Buckeyes are 2-0 and won both games by double digits. Admittedly, it was just a 10-point win over UMass-Lowell where they trailed in the second half. But they’d previously beaten Illinois State by 27 in the season opener. The closer than expected call against Mass-Lowell seems to have influenced this line and we say it’s time to take advantage. While Morehead State is off an upset win against Arkansas State, 69-61 as a three point home underdog, they’d previously lost to Kentucky by 36 and Richmond by 18. That’s the caliber of competition they are up against here. In those two defeats, the Eagles allowed the opponents to shoot almost 56% overall while averaging 81.5 points. Ohio State scored 94 in the season opener, so it should be another big offensive night for them in Columbus. Play on OHIO STATE

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THIS IS AN 8* ON BALTIMORE

All hell has broken loose in Baltimore as the Ravens' COVID-19 outbreak began on Monday. All told, 12 players have been affected. The most notable being QB Lamar Jackson. This game has been moved twice, from Thursday to Sunday and then Sunday to Tuesday. This seemingly could not have come at a worse time for the Ravens as the team has dropped three of its last four games including back to back losses for the first time since early last season. Now they face the 10-0 Steelers who won 28-24 in Baltimore earlier this month. But we’re looking at this as a “buy low” situation on the Ravens. They led a good Tennessee team 21-10 in the third quarter last week before losing in overtime. The Ravens are 4-0 ATS the last four times they’ve been an underdog. The underdog is 19-7-3 ATS the past 29 meetings between Baltimore and Pittsburgh and the road team has covered six of the last eight. This is the first time in a long while that the public seems “down” on the Ravens. An interesting tidbit on the Steelers is that only three teams have punted more times: the Jets, Bears & Eagles. So it’s been a real “boom or bust” for Big Ben and that group. Other than the 4-point win over Baltimore and a 3-point win over Tennessee, Pittsburgh has faced only one other team with a winning record (Cleveland). They struggled to beat Dallas a couple weeks ago. Remember that all this has been just as disruptive to them. Take the points. Play on BALTIMORE

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This is an 8* on the OVER

We get a Top 10 battle Tuesday night with Duke hosting Michigan State. The Blue Devils have definitely had the Spartans number through the years, winning eight of the nine head to head meetings. Both teams struggled to hold onto big leads in their last game and turnovers have been an ongoing issue as well. We expect this to turn into a bit of a shootout. Duke let Coppin State make 10 three-pointers on Saturday. Michigan State obviously possesses a much better shot-making ability than Coppin State. They’ve scored 80 in both games with the Over being 2-0. Duke is no slouch offensively either as Coach K’s charges made 53.1% of its shots in the first game. When these teams played last year, it was all Blue Devils in an 87-75 win that easily surpassed the 142.5 point O/U line. Lots of different names this go around, especially on the Duke side, but the firepower is still there. Play on OVER

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This is an 8* on UIC

Former Horizon League enemies meeting here. Even though Valparaiso is now in the Missouri Valley Conference, there should still be a sense of “rivalry” when they meet Illinois-Chicago on Tuesday, particularly on the UIC side of things. UIC has lost 10 straight times to Valpo. Though it’s a whole new group of players, they should come out highly motivated to end that win streak. The Flames are 2-0 thus far, both close wins. They beat Northern Illinois by four and Central Michigan by two, so it’s too bad they aren’t in the MAC! Valpo lost its only game, 77-71 at Vanderbilt, as they blew a five-point lead with just under six minutes to go. UIC did lead Central Michigan by double digits at halftime, so they were in control throughout, even if the final score doesn’t really indicate that. Both teams have done a good job defensively so far, but winning on the road might be too great of an ask for a young Valpo team right now. They may also be looking forward to a date with Purdue later this week. UIC has won 24 of its last 35 home games while Valpo has lost 19 of its last 28 away from home. Play on UIC

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This is an 8* on CREIGHTON

City pride is at stake here with Omaha taking on Creighton. Omaha comes in as the decided underdog - and for good reason. The Mavericks are 1-2 so far this year and have failed to cover seven straight times against teams with winning records. Creighton is off a win, 69-58 over North Dakota State, which is their only game played to date. Nebraska-Omaha’s only win to this point was by a single point, 60-59 over Middle Tennessee. That came on the heels of a six-point loss to Austin Peay and right before a 12-point loss to Abilene Christian. Despite the questionable status of Creighton’s Denzel Mahoney (COVID-19), we think the Bluejays win this one going away as they are the #9 ranked team in the country right now. Preseason Big East Player of the Year Marcus Zegarowski shot just 2 of 11 against North Dakota State. He should have a much better shooting night here. Omaha has made just 18.2% of its three-point attempts thus far, which is horrendous. Play on CREIGHTON

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This is a 10* on SEATTLE

The Seahawks and Eagles are very much “birds of a different feather” as the former comes with a 7-3 mark on the season while the latter is 3-6-1. But true to the insanity that is 2020, both could end up being division champs when all is said and done! That said, Seattle is so much better and should easily be able to take advantage of a wounded (and struggling) Philly team tonight. The Eagles just found out they’ll be without Lane Johnson for the rest of the year, which is a major loss. It’s not as if they were playing all that well with their top offensive lineman on the field anyway. This is an offense that struggles to score and Wentz seems to have really regressed. Completion percentage and passer rating are both career lows right now while he leads the league with 18 turnovers. Seattle’s defense, which had been a sore spot for them, has recently improved thanks to the return of Jamal Adams and the arrival of Carlos Dunlap. They just held the Rams and Cardinals to a combined 44 points. One group having no problems is the Seattle offense, which averages 31.8 points/game. Not only is Russell Wilson 5-0 all-time vs. Philly, the Seahawks have covered every game. Wilson is 23-12-1 ATS in his career in primetime games. Play on SEATTLE

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This is a 10* on XAVIER

Xavier opened its season with a convincing 101-49 win against Oakland. Since then, the Musketeers have had two close calls against Bradley and Toledo. They were able to win both - but only by a combined four points - and thus it was 0-2 ATS. Eastern Kentucky is off to a 2-0 start and has covered both of its games, but there’s a big difference from those first two opponents (N Florida, Charleston So) to the team they face today. The Colonels are just 1-6 ATS the last seven times they’ve been a road underdog of 12.5 or more points. Concerning for EKU is the fact they’ve shot 35% in both games so far. Xavier is allowing a 31.2 field goal percentage thus far, so it figures to be a very low-scoring game for the underdogs here. Xavier opponents are shooting less than 30% on 2-pt attempts, which ranks 4th in the country, and EKU is shooting just 16% from three-point range. Should be an easy one for the Musketeers. Play on XAVIER

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This is an 8* on CHATTANOOGA 

We’ve got an in-state battle from the Volunteer State with Chattanooga opening its season proper against 0-1 Tennessee Tech. Tennessee Tech had little chance of winning their first game. They were big underdogs against Indiana and did even worse than expected, losing by 30. Chattanooga’s first game was a glorified exhibition as they defeated Lander College 99-63 a few days ago. The Mocs are 21-8 ATS on the road the previous two seasons so we believe the SoCon representation should perform well tonight. The last time these schools played, it was an 11-point home victory for Chattanooga. This was a 20-win team last season. They have eight guys back plus added some good-looking transfers. Tennessee Tech won only 9 games in 2019-20 and four of those came late in the year. Of the last 51 times that the Golden Eagles have been an underdog, they’ve won just nine times. So we will lay a short number. Play on CHATTANOOGA

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This is an 8* on GREEN BAY 

The Bears are one of several NFL teams this week really hurting at the QB position. Truth be told, it hasn’t mattered all season who they’ve had under center. Both Nick Foles and Mitch Trubisky have really stunk up the joint. Now Foles is hurt so Trubisky is being called back into duty this week. Trubisky has had his own injury issues as well. Really, it’s a minor miracle that Chicago is 5-5 entering this game. They have lost four straight while averaging less than 16 points/game. In case you needed to be reminded, Green Bay does not have any issues at quarterback. Aaron Rodgers, who has a 16-2 TD-INT ratio the last five weeks, has dominated the Bears throughout his career. He’s 19-5 against them. With the Packers 5-0 ATS off a loss under Matt LaFleur, expect them to get off to a fast start Sunday night. Play on GREEN BAY 

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Note: This play was released and written up prior to the announcement on Denver's QB situation. Play still stands. 

This is a 10* on NO

Taysom Hill is 1-0 as a starter after leading the Saints to a 24-9 victory over Atlanta last week. The offense gained 378 total yards, which is right on the team’s season average with Drew Brees at quarterback. Now the Falcons defense is pretty bad. But the Saints defense is REALLY good. The last three games they’ve allowed just 25 points. We don’t see them giving up very many this week against a Denver offense that is averaging just 18.2 points/game at home. The Broncos still have yet to be favored in a game all year. Obviously they’re not going to be favored here, even though they are off a 20-13 upset over Miami last week. But the Saints aren’t the Dolphins. When Denver hosted Kansas City earlier in the year, they lost 43-16. That’s what we’re looking at here. Hill showed us last week he can be winning quarterback in this league as he completed 78% of his passes. But the real strength of the Saints right now is the defense. By the way, lots of injuries on the Denver defense. Play on NEW ORLEANS

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