Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-09-19 | Baylor -2 v. TCU | Top | 29-23 | Win | 100 | 44 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BAYLOR Given where this number opened, there still seems to be a real lack of faith in Baylor. The Bears are unbeaten (8-0), but were ranked only 12th in the initial College Football Playoff rankings. There are six teams with at least one loss ranked ahead of the Bears and two with two losses! We're here to say that we do have faith that Matt Rhule's team can win the Big 12 this year. The schedule has set up nicely so far and looking forward, both Oklahoma and Texas have to come to Waco. There have been some close wins along the way (three by a field goal or less), including last week. But off the previous two close wins, Baylor came back to win the next game by 19 and 18 points. Over the last 40 years, there have been only nine times where a team that was 8-0 or better found itself favored by a field goal or less on the road. Those nine unbeatens have responded by going 7-2 ATS! That's the situation Baylor is in here. TCU is 4-4 with three losses by seven points or less. The last time they were at home, they beat Texas 37-27. But in last week's 34-27 loss at Oklahoma State, they lost two quarterbacks to injury! A third QB on the roster decided to transfer out of the program this week! The expectation is that starter Max Duggan will play Saturday, but he fell to the turf hard last week, injuring his shoulder. He won't be at 100%. Baylor didn't look that great last Thursday against West Virginia. They won 17-14, which was the fewest points scored in any game all year for them. But getting extra time to prepare for an opponent they know well should help. TCU has beaten Baylor four years in a row, so that's even more motivation for the Bears besides wanting to stay unbeaten. Play on BAYLOR AAA |
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11-08-19 | Washington -10 v. Oregon State | Top | 19-7 | Win | 100 | 15 h 27 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WASHINGTON Washington is off two gut-wrenching defeats, both at home. They were underdogs against both Oregon and Utah. What's interesting about that is that prior to those two games, the Huskies had not been a home dog since 2015, which was Chris Petersen's 2nd year here in Seattle. They led Oregon by two touchdowns in the second half (lost 35-31) and then were up going into the 4th quarter last week against Utah (lost 33-28). Now the Huskies go from home dog to road favorite. It's a bit of a dangerous spot facing a suddenly hot Oregon State team. But this is a game Washington should win big. They are 5-2 ATS in the games they've been favored to win this year. Washington is 8-1 this decade vs. OSU including seven straight wins. Six of those wins have been by double digits. Oregon State's resurgence has largely come at the expense of the bottom of the Pac 12. The Beavers have beaten UCLA, Cal and Arizona, all of those wins coming on the road, ironically enough. Washington may not be a Top 25 team in the eyes of the committee, but they still are to us. They are 3-0 SU and ATS off back to back losses under Petersen, two of the wins coming against Oregon State. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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11-08-19 | Devils v. Oilers -160 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* on EDMONTON Edmonton comes into tonight tied for first place in the Pacific Division. But while both they and rival Calgary have 22 points, the Oilers have played two fewer games. Tonight should be an easy two points as they host the last place team in the Metropolitan Division, New Jersey. The Devils have just 12 points, though four of their 10 losses have come after regulation. Still this bad start is a real disappointment for a team that had aspirations of making the playoffs. The Devils are the reason that the Oilers are now tied with the Flames for first in the Pacific. They lost 5-2 in Calgary last night. New Jersey had won two in a row prior to last night's defeat. It was the second time this year they'd won consecutive games, only to get blown out their next time hitting the ice. Calgary outshot them 38-23 and really dominated the game in all facets. This will be the Devils third road game in four days. Only three teams have scored fewer goals this season. They have a -16 goal differential. Lack of scoring has been a recent issue for Edmonton as well as they've lost two straight and 7 of 9. But the last two times they've been off consecutive losses, they come back to score 4 goals and win. Play on EDMONTON AAA |
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11-08-19 | Eastern Illinois v. Wisconsin -18.5 | Top | 52-65 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on WISCONSIN Wisconsin's season started with a two-point loss to St. Mary's on Tuesday. They'll look to bounce back against a much lesser opponent on Friday, Tony Romo's alma mater of Eastern Illinois. The Badgers did cover the spread on Tuesday as they were four-point underdogs in a game that went to overtime. The game took place in Sioux Falls, SD. The team's top returning scorer D'Metrick Trice finished with just 10 points on 3 of 7 shooting. There was a six minute stretch in the first half where no one on the team made a field goal. Wisconsin was also badly outrebounded. None of that should happen again tonight in Madison. Nor will the Badgers succumb to a 21-3 run by the opposition. Eastern Illinois lost by 25 on Tuesday and allowed Texas Tech to shoot 55%. Opening its season with road games against Texas Tech and Wisconsin all but guaranteed Eastern Illinois would open 0-2. After such a bad performance in the first game, you have to imagine the players have little confidence coming into this game. Wisconsin has covered seven of the last nine times they have been a home favorite of more than 12 points. They should be able to "name their score" here. Play on WISCONSIN AAA |
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11-08-19 | Kings -1.5 v. Hawks | Top | 121-109 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on SACRAMENTO Just as soon as they got Trae Young back from injury, the Hawks lost John Collins to a 25-game suspension. The team looked absolutely putrid in a 20-point home loss to Chicago Wednesday night. So we'll be playing against them tonight. Wednesday was the first time all year Atlanta had to play back to back. Still that's no excuse for losing by 20 at home to the Bulls. Young really struggled, scoring just nine points. The team was 6 of 30 from behind the 3-point arc with Young missing all eight of his tries. Committing a season-high 24 turnovers didn't help either. This is not the first game where Sacramento has been a road favorite. We actually took them -1.5 at New York on Sunday, which was our Game of the Week. They won by 21. While they followed it up with a 4-point loss in Toronto, they covered as eight-point underdogs. So they're 3-0 ATS the L3 games having also beaten Utah, which is a solid win. The Kings are just 5-16 ATS their last 21 visits to Atlanta, but won convincingly here last season (by 31 points). It was their largest margin of victory all year. They are 3-1 SU and ATS the last two seasons versus the Hawks. Against Toronto, the Kings tied a franchise record with 20 made three-pointers. They are the hotter of these two teams right now. Play on SACRAMENTO AAA |
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11-07-19 | Seattle University v. Washington State -3 | Top | 54-85 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WASHINGTON STATE We know Washington State is off a bad year, but it's rather preposterous to see the Cougs laying such a short number at home to a small school like Seattle. Remember two nights ago we had Cal as a home dog against Pepperdine and the Bears won outright. That Cal play is worth mentioning again because the Bears were the only team to finish below Wazzu in last year's Pac 12 standings. Wazzu draws an even weaker opponent for its season opener as Seattle is a WAC school, perhaps one of the weakest overall conferences in the country. The RedHawks were just 6-10 in conference play last year. Seattle has already played a game. It beat Pacific Lutheran, a non-board team, by 34 points. Getting out to a 31-7 lead was huge. But nothing close to that will be happening tonight. This is a revenge game for Washington State. They lost to the RedHawks last year by nine points. That game was in Seattle though. Wazzu shot very poorly in the game, making less than 30% of its field goal attempts. Despite that loss, the Cougs are still 11-1 ATS their L12 games vs the WAC. Washington State has a new coach, Kyle Smith, who comes over from San Francisco. He led the Dons to 20 wins last season. Lots of new talent was brought in. A new coach is not going to want to lose a game like this. Play on WASHINGTON STATE AAA |
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11-07-19 | Chargers v. Raiders +1.5 | Top | 24-26 | Win | 100 | 54 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OAKLAND Either the Chargers or Raiders are likely to end up with 8 wins this year. Can't say that's something we would have expected to write just a couple of weeks ago. But both AFC West teams are off victories heading into Thursday night's matchup. The Chargers, now 4-5, surprised a lot of people by beating Green Bay on Sunday. That's a game where we had the Under. They held Aaron Rodgers to just 11 points. But as impressive as the win was, it's crucial to remember it was the best LA has looked all season. Oakland, who is 4-4, just beat Detroit 31-24. It was the first time all year that the Raiders were favored to win a game, so they've definitely overachieved. Interestingly, the Chargers were favorites in each of their first six games. The Raiders have not beaten the Chargers in awhile. They've lost all four meetings the previous two seasons and gone 0-4 ATS as well. But this is definitely the best they've been since Jon Gruden took over. All four TD's against the Lions were scored by rookies! It's the Raiders time (to beat LA) on Thursday. Before the Chargers beat the Packers, Oakland was set to be a slight favorite in this matchup. The Raiders are a solid 6-1 ATS the last 7 home games and we don't see a Chargers team that started 2-5 magically turning things around with what would be a third straight win. Play on OAKLAND AAA |
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11-07-19 | Chargers v. Raiders OVER 48 | Top | 24-26 | Win | 100 | 51 h 39 m | Show |
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11-07-19 | Celtics -6.5 v. Hornets | Top | 108-87 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BOSTON Charlotte has certainly surprised some people by winning three in a row. They've covered the spread in four straight games. Only one of those games were they they favorite and how ironic is it that it was against Golden State? Tuesday night was a 122-120 overtime win over Indiana. There was a pretty obvious reason the Hornets were able to beat the Pacers. Free throws. While Charlotte went 28 of 42 from the line, Indiana was only 6 of 7. That kind of massive disparity doesn't come around too often. Without it, the Hornets would have lost Tuesday. The disparity certainly won't repeat itself tonight.Boston is humming along with five straight wins. The last one was in Cleveland, 119-113, a game with a similar spread to this one. The Celtics only loss this year came in the opener at Philadelphia. Since then, they've been playing very good defense, holding teams to 42.7% shooting. Tonight is a homecoming of sorts for Kemba Walker. The Hornets all-time leading scorer is now averaging 26 points/game for the Celtics. Jaylen Brown is expected back for Boston after he missed the last three games. It's surprising to see Charlotte winning three in a row. The streak stops here though. The past two seasons saw them go 5-9 SU/ATS when off three or more consecutive wins. Play on BOSTON AAA |
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11-07-19 | UL-Lafayette v. Coastal Carolina UNDER 59 | Top | 48-7 | Win | 100 | 26 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER These schools have met just one time. It was last year and Coastal Carolina won 30-28 as a three-point underdog. That was on the road. This year, the Chanticleers get to host the Ragin Cajuns, but are actually much bigger underdogs. Louisiana has been one of the best ATS teams in the country this year. They are 7-1 ATS. The only game they didn't cover was against Appalachian State, a 17-7 loss. The only other team to beat them was Mississippi State back in the first game of the season. While this won't be the highest total for either team, ULL has gone Under in three straight games. They also haven't allowed more than 25 points in any game since that loss to Mississippi State. Coastal Carolina has been quite the opposite with five of their last six games going Over the total. Their defense hasn't been great. Home games, on average, have tended to be lower scoring though. Look for Louisiana to run the ball a lot in this game. They'll be effective at doing so, but it will also keep the clock moving. Play UNDER Louisiana-Coastal Carolina AAA |
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11-06-19 | Magic v. Mavs -7.5 | Top | 106-107 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DALLAS Orlando's struggles continued last night with a 102-94 loss in Oklahoma City. It was yet another game scoring less than 100 points. In fact, the Magic have yet to score 100 points in any game this year. No wonder they have a 2-5 SU record (1-5-1 ATS). It's unlikely they get the issues solved in the second night of a back to back, so fade them again.We faded the Magic last night too. We talked about the lack of scoring as they are last in the league in points scored and field goal percentage. It looked like they might be able to get to 100 last night, but a 15-point fourth quarter ultimately doomed them. They shot just 39% for the game, including 13% on three-point attempts. Dallas has looked far more impressive so far. They scored 131 in a blowout win at Cleveland Sunday. The time off between games is another obvious advantage the Mavs have coming into this one. Point guard Luka Doncic looks like the real deal. Orlando hasn't won here in "Big D" since 2011. It's seven straight losses by an average of 17.7 points/game. If you can't score 100 points, you won't win many games in this league. That's the sad reality for the Magic right now. Unless the Mavericks have some sort of severe defensive lapse, they should win comfortably against a team playing in the second night of a back to back. Play on DALLAS AAA |
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11-06-19 | Cincinnati v. Ohio State -6 | Top | 56-64 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
This is 10* on OHIO STATE Ohio State opens the year ranked #18 in the country. They face a Cincinnati team going through a transition with a new coach and lots of new players. Playing in Columbus, the season opener sets up well for the Buckeyes. These schools didn't play for 98 years, but are now opening the season against one another for the second consecutive season. OSU won last year's game in Cincinnati, 64-56 as a 4.5-point dog. That was a signal that the Buckeyes were "for real" and they'd end up making the NCAA Tournament. Cincinnati has made the Big Dance 10 years in a row. But there could be some early growing pains this season. Mick Cronin left to go coach at UCLA. Five players transferred and two more graduated, leaving new coach John Brannen to almost have to start over from scratch. Yes, he does have three starters back, but we don't think that's enough to match up with the mighty Buckeyes. Ohio State has the Wesson brothers and Kaleb reportedly dropped 30 pounds in the offseason. Having beaten a better Cincinnati team on the road to open last season, it stands to reason the Buckeyes should have an even easier time this year in Columbus. The Bearcats have lost 26 of the last 33 times they've been a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points. Play on OHIO STATE AAA |
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11-06-19 | Miami-OH +7 v. Ohio | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 29 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI Miami and Ohio meet Wednesday in the 96th "Battle of the Bricks." Ohio has won this rivalry game 11 of the past 14 years under coach Frank Solich, including six straight times at home. But last year it was Miami pulling a 30-28 upset as four-point home underdogs. Both teams are 3-1 in conference play. In each case, the teams won their respective MAC openers, lost the next game, then have followed with two wins in a row. Neither played this past Saturday, obviously.Miami has gone 19-7 straight up its last 26 MAC games as coach Chuck Martin is doing a good job here. The last two wins have both been upsets as the Redhawks beat Northern Illinois 27-24 at home than Kent State 23-16 on the road. They've actually been favored only one time all season! Ohio was an underdog its last time out (+2), a 34-21 win at Ball State. Unlike past years, the Bobcats have not been invincible at home here in 2019. They've already lost twice, once to Louisiana and then to the Northern Illinois team that Miami recently defeated. We expect this to be a close game that could go either way. Ohio's defense has been more than just a little "leaky" at home as they've given up 45, 39 and 38 points the last three times playing here. Is it any wonder that the Bobcats are 0-5 ATS as favorites this season? Play on MIAMI AAA |
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11-06-19 | Southeastern Louisiana v. Tulane -5.5 | Top | 55-76 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TULANE When you are as terrible as Tulane was last season, a coaching change is all but assured. The Green Wave finished 4-27 in 2018-19, a shockingly bad record when you consider they had a former NBA coach in Mike Dunleavy in charge of the program. Ron Hunter likely will never coach in the NBA, but he's a massive upgrade from Dunleavy in the college ranks. Tulane's new coach comes over from Georgia State, who he led to three NCAA Tournament appearances in the last five years, including one memorable 1st round upset. Hunter did lose last year's leading scorer Caleb Daniels, who left for Villanova. But Hunter brought in four transfers of his own, one of them (Teshaun Hightower) likely to be the team's leading scorer this year. SE Louisiana also had a first year coach, David Keifer, who was previously an assistant here. But Keifer lost the top two scorers from last year's team and they accounted for about 33 points per game. Unlike Hunter and Tulane, Keifer doesn't seem to have an adequate way to replace that lost production. This is a big game for Hunter, who is looking to make a statement in his first game. It's a shockingly low number for a home game. Tulane should win by double digits. Play on TULANE AAA |
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11-05-19 | Pepperdine v. California +2.5 | Top | 71-87 | Win | 100 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on CAL Despite winning only eight games last year and being picked to finish last in the Pac 12, California actually has some optimism this year. They've got a new coach and landed a key transfer that could end up leading the team in scoring. Pepperdine is a middle of the road WCC team. It is definitely uncharted territory to see them laying points on the road against a team from a superior conference. Cal's new coach is Mark Fox. He previously spent nine years at Georgia where he had six winning seasons, five postseason appearances (two NCAA Tourney) and won 55% of his games. It's a good land for the Bears. Fox's first big land was grand transfer Kareem South. South comes over from Texas A&M-CC. Despite being an inexperienced team, this season opener is a game Cal can win. For what it's worth, the Bears covered the final five games last year. Play on CAL AAA |
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11-05-19 | Magic v. Thunder -3.5 | Top | 94-102 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on OKC Orlando hasn't been very good against the spread thus far. They are just 1-4-1 ATS. Even more disturbing is the fact they have yet to score 100 points in a game. This is 2019, people! The Magic take the league's worst offense to Oklahoma City on Tuesday. This is a rebuilding year for the Thunder, but so far they've taken advantage of poor public perception to go 4-2 ATS. They have the same number of SU wins (2) as Orlando. This won't be the first time OKC has been favored either. The first is a game they'd like to forget as they lost outright here at home to the Wizards. But the next game saw them bounce back with a 120-92 win over Golden State (were -1.5), also at home. Orlando has lost both of its road games so far. They shot a horrendous 24.5% from three-point range in those games. They are averaging just 93.5 points/game overall. OKC won its last game, beating New Orleans 115-104 as a two-point favorite. That was despite being short-handed. Six players scored 10 or more points. Go ahead and lay this short number. Play on OKC. AAA |
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11-05-19 | Florida International +15 v. Mississippi State | Top | 69-77 | Win | 100 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 8* on FIU Both of these teams have plenty of experience. FIU has four starters back from a team that won 20 games last year. Mississippi State also has four starters back, but one of them won't play here because of a suspension. Looking at the way the line has moved for this opening night matchup, it's pretty clear "sharp" money sides with the underdog. So do we. The player suspended for MSU is Nick Weatherspoon. He will miss the first 10 games of the season. He also missed the final 10 of last season for the same undisclosed violation of team rules. The Bulldogs season did not end well as they were upset in the first round of the NCAA Tournament by Liberty. The Bulldogs also didn't look very good in an exhibition against vs. South Alabama, winning that game by only three points. FIU isn't getting a ton of respect right now. Maybe that's because they did lose last year's leading scorer, Brian Beard (17.5 PPG). But the Panthers employ a system that will keep them competitive here. That system was brought over by coach Jeremy Ballard, who was previously at VCU. If you know anything about the way VCU plays, then you should now know what to expect with FIU. It's an up-tempo game where they'll force a lot of turnovers. FIU played at the fastest tempo in the country last season. They forced 10.6 steals/game, which was #1 in the country. Play on FIU AAA |
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11-05-19 | Kent State v. Toledo OVER 61.5 | Top | 33-35 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on OVER This will be the first time since 2010 that Toledo hasn't had to lay double digits to Kent State. It's only the fourth meeting since then for the in-state rivals, but the short price shouldn't come as a total shock. Toledo has suffered some bad losses this year while Kent State looks improved. They've been outscored by 41 points in four MAC games, but if Toledo wins out they could very well win the West Division for the second time in three years. The problem is a leaky defense that has given up 86 points the last two weeks. After getting lambasted by Ball State (52-14), the Rockets barely beat Eastern Michigan last week, winning 37-34 in overtime. Toledo averages 35.2 PPG at home, which is two full touchdowns more than what they average outside the Glass Bowl. Kent State's defense is giving up nearly 500 yards/game on the road, so this easily could turn into a shootout Tuesday night. Last year was a 56-34 game, won by Toledo, who was an 11.5-point favorite. The Under is 6-0 in Toledo's last six Tuesday games. That's about to change. Take away the dreadful effort against Bowling Green (on the road) and the Rockets have scored plenty in almost every other game. Kent State took some lumps against Power 5 teams, but is an improved team on offense. Play OVER Kent State-Toledo AAA |
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11-04-19 | Coyotes v. Oilers OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the OVER Arizona and Edmonton have each gone Over in their last three games. But both teams are certainly capable of scoring a lot of goals on any given not. Especially the Oilers when they are playing at home. So far, the Oilers are scoring an average of 3.8 goals in home games. But if the Oilers have a problem tonight, it's that they also give up a decent number of goals at home (3.3 per game). So with an average of more than 7 goals/game being scored in Edmonton home games, this number looks to be low. Arizona had a 3-0 shutout of Colorado last time we saw them. But it was their 1st shutout this season and just the 12th in the last three seasons. The Coyotes are among the league leaders when it comes to fewest number of goals, but we're rather suspicious of that continuing. They also give up a higher number of goals on the road compared to at home. The Over is 10-4 for Edmonton when off three or more consecutive Unders. The time is right for a high-scoring game. Play OVER Arizona-Edmonton. AAA |
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11-04-19 | Cowboys -6.5 v. Giants | Top | 37-18 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DALLAS This is a line move that we don't agree with at all. All the trends support a play on the Cowboys as does all that we've seen on the field this year. Getting Dallas laying less than a touchdown here is a bonafide steal.Road teams are 23-12-1 ATS in division games this season. Furthermore, Dallas has gone 13-2 SU and ATS within its division the last 2+ seasons. This includes 5-0 SU and ATS vs. the Giants. The 'Boys are 7-0 SU/ATS L7 overall vs. the rest of the NFC East.The Giants are not a good home team. Going back to last year, they are just 2-9-1 ATS at MetLife Stadium including 1-7 as an underdog. The Cowboys really took it to the Giants in Week 1, winning 35-17. They come into this rematch well rested as last week was their bye. The Giants have lost four in a row. While only 4-3, Dallas has outscored opponents by 66 points (5th best margin) and they are outgaining opponents by 112.8 yards/game, also one of the top margins. The Cowboys have outgained all but one opponent this year. The Giants have outgained only two. Play on DALLAS AAA |
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11-04-19 | Rockets -5.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 107-100 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON Houston had high expectations coming into the season. So it has to feel terribly disappointing to be only 3-3 through six games. Last night was a humiliating 129-100 loss in Miami where they trailed 46-14 at the end of the first quarter. The Rockets are now 0-6 ATS on the young season.They're not about to go 0-82 ATS though and that's our mindset coming into Monday's game at Memphis. The Grizzlies aren't a good team. They're 1-4 with the only win coming in overtime, by a single point, on a buzzer beater. Russell Westbrook is being given tonight off. But his absence is built into this line. It's a short number, one that we don't mind laying. The Rockets have been favored in every game this season. The Grizzlies have been underdogs in all of their games. Houston's problem lies on the defensive end as they are last in the league in points allowed. Good for them then that they are facing a Memphis team that is 2nd to last in offensive efficiency. The Rockets are 5-1 ATS the last six meetings with Memphis. Look for them to continue that mastery. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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11-04-19 | Penguins v. Bruins UNDER 6.5 | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the UNDER This is a little bit like our Under play on last night's Flames-Capitals game. We've got a red hot team scoring a lot of goals. In this instance it's Boston, winners of five straight, a streak which has seen them find the back of the net a total of 24 times.Look for the pace to slow down tonight though with a visit from the always dangerous Penguins. Pittsburgh can score, but they've also allowed just three goals in the last three games. So, in our opinion, this has Under written all over it. Pittsburgh is giving up just 2.4 goals/game so far. Boston is even better at 2.1. At home, the Bruins allow just 1.6 goals/game. Both Bruins' numbers are the best in the NHL right now.The Under is actually 52-18-2 in the Penguins last 72 games! They are 22-4 Under their last 26 games vs. the Atlantic Division. A problem for Pittsburgh is that they are 0 for 19 on the power play the previous eight games. Forward David Backes is out for Boston. Play UNDER Pittsburgh-Boston AAA |
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11-03-19 | Patriots v. Ravens +3.5 | Top | 20-37 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BALTIMORE Baltimore has clearly been the recipient of some sharp action for this Sunday night duel with New England. We almost never want to fade the Patriots unless its a large spread, but this is the rare time to do so. The Ravens are off their bye and have gone 8-3 ATS in this situation under John Harbaugh. They are also rarely a home dog. The last 18 games here in Baltimore, the home team has been the favorite. New England hasn't exactly faced a murderer's row thus far. They've played Pittsburgh, Miami, the Jets twice, Buffalo, Washington, the Giants and Cleveland. None of those teams have winning records and four of the games have been against the three worset teams in the league. Substantial turnover margins have really been helping the Patriots so far. Baltimore has zero turnovers in four of its seven games. In a game where points could be at a premium, we want to be on the underdog. Also be cognizant of the Patriots problems in the kicking game. Play on BALTIMORE AAA |
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11-03-19 | Flames v. Capitals UNDER 6.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER This streak of Washington Overs has to end some time, right? The Capitals have gone Over in nine straight games with all nine seeing seven or more total goals scored. The Caps have handled the bulk of the scoring 41 goals in those nine games, which is kind of an insane number. One of the games was in Calgary and the Caps won there 5-3. The two times these teams played last year, both games also went Over. The Flames have produced some high scoring games themselves this season, but most have been at home. They are averaging just 2.3 goals/game on the road. This is the second game of a back to back for them as well. Last night saw them shutout Columbus 3-0. The Flames have gone Under both times they've been in a back to back this year. Washington allowed just one goal in its last game. Take away the third period and overtime of the Nashville game Thursday and Calgary has only six goals its last four games. Play UNDER Calgary-Washington AAA |
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11-03-19 | Kings +1 v. Knicks | Top | 113-92 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SACRAMENTO Two of the dregs of the league play Sunday in the Big Apple as the 1-5 Kings play the 1-5 Knicks. Besides matching records, something else the teams have in common is that they are both were involved in a close game Friday. But the difference is Sacramento won theirs won the NY lost. The Kings first win of the season was against Utah and at home. They won 102-101 on a last second putback. Obviously, after an 0-5 start, they'd take a win anyway they can get it. But even before beating the Jazz, which is an impressive win by the way, there were signs of improvement. The Kings played much better against Charlotte and Denver then they did in the first three games. The Knicks lost on a last second shot Friday, 104-102 to Boston. Their only win came in a game where they had to rally from an 18-point deficit and that was against the Bulls. So New York pretty easily could be 0-6 right now. We understand there may be some hesitation to lay points with Sacramento away from home. But this is a really short number. They also beat the Knicks twice last year. It was easily forgotten because of the 0-5 start, but the Kings were supposed to be fairly competitive this year. The Knicks are still one of the worst teams in the league. No matter the opponent, we're glad to bet that they'll lose on any given night. A loss is all we need here. Play on SACRAMENTO AAA |
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11-03-19 | Browns v. Broncos +4.5 | Top | 19-24 | Win | 100 | 29 h 20 m | Show |
This is an 8* on DENVER The 2-5 Browns have not lived up to expectations this season and quite frankly neither have the 2-6 Broncos. The loser of this game is going to be in real trouble, especially if it's Denver. Cleveland at least has an easy schedule to look forward to, although at 2-6 the chances of making the playoffs would be quite small. The line for this game has moved considerably. That's because Joe Flacco is injured and Brandon Allen will start in his place for the Broncos. The offense wasn't scoring a ton with Flacco in there though. We actually don't believe Denver's offense is in substantially worse shape heading into this game, making them a good value play on the Week 9 card. The public, which was in love with the Browns at the start of the season, can't help itself when it sees a backup quarterback. They want to take the other side. But remember when Carolina started Kyle Allen for the first time? They were underdogs at Arizona, a ridiculous line in hindsight and not just because the Panthers won that game 38-20. First time starting QB's have torn it up this year, going a perfect 8-0 against the spread. Look for Allen to make it nine straight covers. It's not like Cleveland has been very impressive. They did win in Baltimore, but their only other win was against a Jets team down to its third string QB. The Browns are -48 in point differential. Denver is the team whose record probably should be a lot better. They've lost three games on last second field goals, including last week. The Broncos defense is giving up only 18.9 points/game and 304.5 yards/game, both of which are top 10 marks in the league. Play on DENVER AAA |
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11-03-19 | Packers v. Chargers UNDER 49 | Top | 11-26 | Win | 100 | 29 h 20 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the UNDER The Packers are 7-1 heading into this game and have won four straight. The Chargers are only 3-5, but did win last thanks to a missed field goal by the Bears. Even though they won, the Chargers offense gained only 231 total yards last week. They've scored more than 24 points in regulation just one time and that was against Miami. That's the only time since Week 1 that they've scored more than 20. The Under is 6-1 their last 7 games. The Over is 5-1 in Green Bay's last six games, so one of these teams O/U trends is going to cease. The Packers defense has been improved this year, giving up just 20.4 points/game. With Chargers games typically being so low scoring, signs point to that continuing this week. The Packers have faced a couple of bad offenses the last two weeks. The Chargers are giving up only 19.6 points/game. We love that the number has been bet up during the week. The Under is 5-2 for Green Bay following a game where they scored 30 or more points. Play UNDER Green Bay-LA Chargers AAA |
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11-03-19 | Bucs v. Seahawks UNDER 51.5 | Top | 34-40 | Loss | -108 | 116 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the UNDER Tampa Bay heads to Seattle desperate for a win. The Bucs are just 2-5 after blowing another lead and losing last week. Turning things around won't be easy though as the Seahawks are 6-2. We're calling for an Under. Seattle rarely blows anybody out. They have only one win by more than seven points all year. Last week's 27-20 win over Atlanta wasn't really that close though. The Seahawks led 24-0 at one point. The Falcons did much of their offensive damage in garbage time. Tampa Bay's last five games have gone Over. That has resulted in their highest O/U line to date. The same thing is true for Seattle. The number is too high. Tampa Bay has only gone over 26 points in two games. Seattle scored 27 last week, but just 16 the week before than and is actually scoring less at home where they are 0-4 ATS. The Seahawks lost their starting center for the season. That will have a major impact on the rest of the offensive line, if not the entire offense. One thing you shouldn't expect from this game is for Seattle to run the ball well. The Buccaneers are giving up only 69 yards rushing per game. That's the best mark in the league. Play UNDER Tampa Bay-Seattle AAA |
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11-03-19 | Colts v. Steelers | Top | 24-26 | Win | 100 | 113 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PITTSBURGH It's a short week for the 3-4 Steelers, who had to come from behind to beat the winless Dolphins on Monday Night Football. They host the 5-2 Colts, who have yet to play a game that wasn't decided by seven points or less. We think the Steelers are set to pull off a "surprise" win at home. Pittsburgh didn't cover Monday's game, but did end up winning comfortably. After spotting Miami an early 14-0 lead, the Steelers scored the game's final 27 points. They ended up outgaining the Dolphins 394-230. It was Mason Rudolph's first game back after sustaining a concussion against Baltimore. He got better as the game wen along. We actually played against the Steelers last week. But that was as a big favorite. They are 8-2 ATS the last ten times as an underdog. It's a short line this week and who knows where it'll end up by kickoff. But the bottom line is that Pittsburgh is a much better value this week than they were vs. Miami. Indianapolis is 5-2, but has been outgained this year and has a weak scoring differential. Last week was the third time they won a game by three points or less. They should be commended for how they've done in the wake of Andrew Luck's shocking retirement, but this is far from a dominant team. Pittsburgh's offensive line could be key in this game. They've allowed the fewest sacks in the league and could push around a Colts run defense that ranks near the bottom of the league. Play on PITTSBURGH AAA |
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11-02-19 | 76ers v. Blazers OVER 220 | Top | 129-128 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the OVER Philadelphia comes into this game with a 5-0 record. They are the only team in the league that hasn't lost a game yet. Oddsmakers are predicting the end of their unbeaten run tonight though as they are slight underdogs to a Portland team that has covered the spread in its last four games. We're playing the total though. Both teams are coming off games that went Under. The 76ers beat Minnesota 117-95 (total was 221.5) while Portland beat Oklahoma City 102-99 (total was 222). We think both teams, Portland especially, are capable of producing higher-scoring games. The big story for tonight is that Philly won't have Joel Embiid. He's been suspended for two games due to the fight with Karl Anthony-Towns. While most will focus on the effect Embiid's absence will have on the offensive end, don't be surprised when the Sixers slip defensively sans big man. The 99 points Portland allowed in their last game was a season-low. It also was against a bad team. At the same time, the 102 points the Blazers scored were also a season-low. The previous three games all saw a minimum of 223 points scored. Four other players besides Embiid were in double figures for the Sixers against Minnesota. They'll score plenty without him. Portland will see a drastic swing after playing its lowest scoring game of the year. Play OVER Philadelphia-Portland AAA |
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11-02-19 | Vanderbilt v. South Carolina -14.5 | Top | 7-24 | Win | 100 | 94 h 25 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SOUTH CAROLINA South Carolina is 3-5 and off a surprising loss while Vanderbilt is 2-5 and off a surprising win. We believe last week's results set up a nice play on the favorite. Despite losing 41-21 to Tennessee last week, South Carolina actually led at halftime. That makes it three times this year that they've lost a game in which they led in the second half. They are better than their record. Vanderbilt has had all sorts of trouble covering the spread this year. They are 1-6 ATS and that one cover was two weeks ago, a stunning 21-14 upset of Missouri as three touchdown underdogs. The Commodores have only been favored two times, so it's mostly been them getting blown out. Despite being off a bye, QB Mo Hasan still has not been cleared to return from a concussion. Monitor his status. Three weeks ago, South Carolina stunned all of College Football by upsetting Georgia. They haven't won since! A loss to Florida wasn't that big of a deal but getting beat last week by Tennessee was certainly disappointing. The Gamecocks were actually four-point road favorites in the 41-21 loss. Because of what happened last week, look for South Carolina to come out very motivated Saturday night. They will be playing without RB Dowdle, but should still move the ball just fine against a Vandy defense that's giving up an average of 33.6 points per game. Stopping a Vandy offense that averages an SEC low 18.4 points/game shouldn't be a problem either. Vandy lost at home to UNLV for crying out loud. South Carolina is 23-4 all-time vs. Vanderbilt and has won 10 straight by an average of 11 points/game. Last year was a 23-point game in Columbia. Nothing changes this year. Play on SOUTH CAROLINA AAA |
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11-02-19 | SMU v. Memphis -5.5 | Top | 48-54 | Win | 100 | 94 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on MEMPHIS SMU (8-0) heads to Memphis (7-1) this week looking to stay undefeated. But they are underdogs to a team they haven't beaten in five years. Furthermore, the Mustangs have lost those five games by an average of 30 points/game. SMU is undoubtedly improved this year. But they've won a lot of games they easily could have lost. Wins over Arkansas State and TCU were decided by 7 and 3 points respectively. They needed overtime to beat a 2-win Tulsa team. Last week saw them get outgained by 125 yards in a 34-31 win at undermanned Houston. Memphis is also ranked and we feel they are pretty clearly the better team. While the Tigers did lose at Temple a few weeks ago and barely survived Tulsa last week, they've posted five double digit victories so far and also beat an SEC team (Ole Miss). We are calling for an end to SMU's unbeaten season as they should lose this game by double digits. Memphis is simply better, which is why they are the favorite. Well, that and they are at home. The Tigers have won 17 of the last 19 home games. A big key is that they allow just 18.5 points/game here at the Liberty Bowl. This is the end of the line for SMU, at least when it comes to their hopes of playing in the Cotton Bowl. We're seeing unbeaten teams drop like flies the past few weeks and this is going to be a rabid crowd they're in front of as this is a primetime, national TV game. Memphis is 7-0 ATS in November the last two years. Play on MEMPHIS AAA |
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11-02-19 | Miami-FL v. Florida State OVER 45.5 | Top | 27-10 | Loss | -116 | 90 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the OVER This rivalry may not mean what it used to, but the games are generally closely contested and emotions still run high. Florida State won a series record seven straight from 2010-16, but has lost the last two. The road team has won 9 of the last 13 matchups and 15 of the last 17 have been one-score games. Despite this, the favorite is 7-1 the last eight years. Neither team is ranked right now. But Miami is off a big upset win over Pitt, bringing them to 4-4 overall and 2-3 in the ACC. They beat Pitt 16-12 despite gaining only 208 total yards. That was the third time this season that the Hurricanes won a game in which they scored 17 points or fewer. Their four losses have all been by seven points or less with the difference being they've allowed an average of 30.5 points in the four losses as opposed to 8.25 in the four wins. Florida State is off a 35-17 win over Syracuse. They too are 4-4 overall, but they're 3-3 in conference play. The Seminoles have scored 31 or more points in all four wins this year while being held to just over 22 points/game in the four losses. With FSU being favored in this game, we should expect one of the better offensive showings. It's just the way it seems to work. It's interesting that their last five games have all stayed Under. But totals for those five games were all much higher than this one. This will be the lowest total for any Florida State game this season. While quarterback is a question mark for both teams, the running game isn't. Cam Akers has run for more than 300 yards in the last two games for Florida State. Miami RB DeeJay Dallas, who didn't play last week, averages 6.7 yards per carry. It is important to note that Jarren Williams is starting at QB for Miami. He began the season as the starter before hurting his shoulder. Williams is better than N'Kosi Perry, whom he replaced last week and then led the come from behind victory. Play OVER Miami-Florida State AAA |
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11-02-19 | Nebraska -3 v. Purdue | Top | 27-31 | Loss | -120 | 45 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on NEBRASKA So much for that Nebraska improvement this year. Well, to be fair, the Cornhuskers are probably going to win more games in 2019 than they did in 2018. They've already equaled last season's win total of 4. But anyone thinking the Big 10 West would run through Lincoln has to be severely disappointed as the 'Huskers won't be winning the division this year. But Purdue won't either. The Boilermakers have been hit hard by injuries, specifically QB Elijah Sanders and WR Rondale Moore, which is most of their offense. Moore is questionable for Saturday after missing the last four games. Sindelar probably isn't coming back at this point. Backup Jack Plummer was a disaster last week vs. Illinois, going 7 of 19 for only 69 yards. He was benched twice, both times after turnovers that led to Illini scores. There was some thought to benching Plummer permanently, but coach Jeff Brohm changed his mind. So there's no clear direction in West Lafayette. Meanwhile, Nebraska is going to get back their starting QB back. Adrian Martinez should be the difference. Before the year, no one would have thought Nebraska would lose this game. They won't. Play on NEBRASKA AAA |
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11-02-19 | Boston College v. Syracuse -3 | Top | 58-27 | Loss | -115 | 45 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on SYRACUSE Syracuse has lost three straight. Talk about a dropoff. The Orange were 10-3 last year, their best season in years. Losing a four-year starting QB meant they were probably going to struggle this year. But it's not necessarily been Tommy DeVito's fault that the team is 3-5. The offensive line has failed to protect him, giving up the most sacks in the country. The Cuse don't have a win over a Power 5 team yet. But that should change this week hosting Boston College. B.C. lost 59-7 at Clemson last week. That was their 4th loss in 6 games. While there have been seven upsets in the last nine meetings here and the visitor has won the last three, we don't see it happening again here. Boston College is giving up a lot more points than usual, including 38.7 points/game on the road. The defense is last in the ACC in third downs and at stopping the pass. The offense is totally one-dimensional with a backup QB. Syracuse remains a good home team, so they should cover this small number. They are also 8-3 ATS coming off a game where they scored 20 points or less. Play on SYRACUSE AAA |
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11-02-19 | Northern Illinois v. Central Michigan UNDER 50.5 | Top | 10-48 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the UNDER Northern Illinois is having a down year. Really, so is the entire MAC. Central Michigan has been one of the few pleasant surprises in the conference. After going 1-11 last season, the Chippewas are 5-4, but they did lose badly last week 43-20 at Buffalo. That came after three straight games scoring at least 38 points. The game at Buffalo still did go Over though, so that's four Overs in a row for CMU. Northern Illinois has gone Over three straight as they did all the scoring last week against Akron in a 49-0 win. But that was Akron. The Huskies aren't exactly a high-scoring outfit. They average just 21.2 points/game at home. They had only 71 yards passing against Akron, but didn't need any more than that as they had two defensive scores. Central Michigan also allowed a defensive score in its game last week. They also gave up two more touchdowns on drives that started inside their own 25-yard line. Take those defensive scores away and all of a sudden the games are a lot more low scoring. Play UNDER Northern Illinois-Central Michigan AAA |
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11-01-19 | Lakers v. Mavs OVER 216 | Top | 119-110 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the OVER The Lakers and Mavericks both come into this game at 3-1. The Lakers have won three straight following a season-opening loss to the Clippers. The Mavs just upset the Nuggets, in Denver, a nice bounce back from their first loss of the season (which was at home vs. Portland). Tonight marks the Lakers first real road game of the season. They were technically the road team against the Clippers, but that game was still played at the Staples Center. The Lakers defensive numbers probably need to be taken with a grain of salt as they've beaten some pretty weak offensive teams. Dallas has scored at least 108 points in all four of its games.There were three meetings between these teams last season. All three went Under. But all three totals were also much higher. The lowest O/U line of the three was 221. LeBron James didn't suit up for one of them.Not only will James play tonight for the Lakers, so will Anthony Davis, who was not on the team last year. Davis had 40 points and 20 rebounds in the last game, despite playing for only three quarters. Kyle Kuzma is set to make his season debut as well. Dallas is also stronger offensively this year with a healthy Kristaps Porizingis in the lineup. Nine Mavs were in double figures vs. Denver.The Over was 9-5 the last two years when the Lakers are on a three-game win streak. Play OVER Lakers-Mavs AAA |
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11-01-19 | Stars v. Avalanche -141 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -141 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on COLORADO Colorado is enjoying a strong start to the season. They are 8-2-2 and lead the Central Division with 18 points. Tonight they will play host to a Dallas team whose nine losses are tied for most in the league. Seems like a mismatch to us.It's fair to call this a mismatch even though the Avalanche have lost two straight games. Both were at home, the last one (Wednesday vs. Anaheim) coming in overtime. They were pretty decent sized favorites for both of those games. It's hard for us to imagine them losing three in a row as home favorites. Dallas has won 4 of 5. But the last four games were all played at home. The Stars have yet to really look good on the road where they are averaging just 24.9 shots per game. Also, before this 4-1 stretch, they hadn't won a single time in regulation all year. We're looking at the big picture here, not falling for recency bias. The big problem for Colorado right now is injuries as two of their top three players (Landeskog and Rantanen) are out. But they still held a two goal lead in the third period against Anaheim. They should have won. The Stars scored a season-high six goals in their most recent game. But they still are averaging just 2.2 goals/game for the year. Colorado averages 3.9. Play on COLORADO AAA |
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10-31-19 | Spurs +5 v. Clippers | Top | 97-103 | Loss | -103 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on SAN ANTONIO San Antonio has the odd juxtaposition of having won every game straight up, but having lost all of them against the spread. They are 3-0 SU/0-3 ATS, which isn't really something you see all that often, whether at the start of the year or at any point, really. So this is obviously the first time they've been an underdog this season and it comes against a Clippers team playing in the second game of a back to back. Kawhi Leonard was given last night off and the Clippers faded badly down the stretch, losing to the Jazz 110-96. Paul George has yet to play at all this season. Like the Spurs, the Clippers have also failed to cover three in a row. The team isn't going to continue shooting almost 40% from three-point land. The Spurs come into their first road game fully healthy and will be highly motivated to beat former teammate Leonard. In their last game, the Spurs caught Portland in the second game of a back to back and led that one by as much as 19 points. Play on SAN ANTONIO AAA |
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10-31-19 | 49ers -9.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 28-25 | Loss | -115 | 47 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ARIZONA We'd be surprised if Arizona (3-4-1) won this game. However, it's a lot of points to be getting at home. The 49ers may be unbeaten (7-0), but there's been only one game this year where they were favored by more than six points. It was against Washington (-10) and they won 9-0. This is a division road game and a short week. As impressive as the Niners looked in Sunday's 51-13 beatdown of the Panthers, we disagree with the early line move. The Cardinals had won three in a row prior to facing New Orleans last week. While the Saints ended up beating them 31-9, it was actually a one-score game entering the 4th quarter. The 49ers have not beaten the Cardinals since 2014. They're on an eight-game losing streak in this NFC West rivalry. Only two of the last 11 meetings have been decided by greater than 10 points. Last week was San Francisco's highest scoring game of the season while it was Arizona's lowest scoring game of the season. Neither performance is really representative of what you're likely to see this week. The 49ers are 15-32-4 ATS their L51 games following a win by two touchdowns. Arizona is 8-2 ATS after giving up 30 or more points the previous game. Play on ARIZONA AAA |
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10-31-19 | West Virginia v. Baylor -17.5 | Top | 14-17 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BAYLOR Baylor is 7-0 and ranked #12 in the country heading into Thursday night's clash with 3-4 West Virginia. Normally, this might be a spot you'd want to fade the undefeated team, but Baylor is well rested and out for revenge. They've lost the last three times they've played the Mountaineers, but obviously circumstances were a lot different. It was WVU ranked each of those three years while Baylor has been rebuilding under Matt Rhule. That rebuild is now over as the Bears are the only Big 12 team without a conference loss. West Virginia is now the one rebuilding under a first year coach and several freshman are playing in key positions. While there have been a fair number of close calls for Baylor, they sure impressed us when they went into Stillwater two weeks ago and beat Oklahoma State 45-27. Aside from an upset over NC State, West Virginia has not impressed anybody. They've lost three straight - all by double digits - and the last two weeks have seen the offense do next to nothing. They scored 14 points against both Iowa State and Oklahoma while the defense gave up 90. QB Kendall is averaging just 10 yards per completion and has 7 interceptions. The running game is really bad, averaging only 88 yards/game, which is sixth worst in the entire country. The Baylor offense ranks 12th in the country, averaging 38.9 points/game. The defense allows just 19.1 points/game. We are surprised to see WVU is just 2-11 SU and 3-9-1 ATS as an underdog the past three seasons (1-4 in 2019). Expect a blowout. Play on BAYLOR AAA |
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10-30-19 | Nationals v. Astros -130 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -130 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on WASHINGTON There's a lot to digest coming into the first ever World Series Game 7 where two former Cy Young winners will be starting. The road team has won all six games so far, which is really surprising given how good of a home team the Astros are. Even with the three losses to the Nationals, Houston's record at Minute Maid Park is 65-25 this year and they have scored 159 more runs than they have allowed in those 90 games. Only one time, a three-game losing streak to Oakland last month, have the Astros lost more than two in a row at home in 2019. Thus, with everything on the line tonight, we can't see them losing a 4th straight home game. We just can't. While many inside the Washington clubhouse are probably ecstatic over the fact Max Scherzer gets to start Game 7, he is a huge question mark after being scratched from Game 5 because of neck spasms. Those spasms reportedly led to him being unable to even lift his arm. Scherzer probably still pitches well, but won't match Zack Greinke, whose only quality start this postseason was the one time he got to start at home. Going back to the start of the series, the Astros were the biggest WS favorite since 2007. Though it always hasn't been apparent, they do have the better bullpen. We like Houston to win the Fall Classic at home. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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10-30-19 | Nationals v. Astros UNDER 7.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
THis is a 10* on the UNDER While all the focus remains on the fact the home team is 0-6, the only game to go Under in this World Series was Game 3 in Washington and that was with the pitchers having to come up to bat. But with the stakes at their highest and two starters the caliber of Scherzer and Greinke going in Game 7, we're calling for a low-scoring game. Greinke's only WS start was Game 3 and he held the Nationals to one run in 4 2/3 IP. Tonight marks just the second time Greinke has started at home in these playoffs. The first was his best outing of the postseason as he went six innings and held the Yankees to three runs. His home ERA and WHIP for the year are 3.61 and 1.055 respectively. But Grienke isn't the only former Cy Young winner pitching tonight. Scherzer, who was scratched from Game 5 due to neck spasms, makes it the first ever WS Game 7 where two former Cy Youngs are starting. Assuming Scherzer is okay, he too should pitch well here. He has a 2.49 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 14 road starts. His last three starts overall have yielded a 1.42 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. Really, we shouldn't have to delve too deep into how good the two starters here truly are. It's surprising that the Over is 5-1 in this series considering the home team has averaged just 2.0 runs/game! Under is 6-1 last seven times Grienke has started on four days rest. Under is also 9-2 Scherzer's last 11 Interleague starts. Play UNDER Washington-Houston AAA |
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10-30-19 | Bulls v. Cavs UNDER 216 | Top | 111-117 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the UNDER The Bulls previous three games have all stayed Under, which should not be a shock as it's not like this is a great offensive team. They were held to 84 points by Toronto in a home loss on Saturday. Then they scored only 98 in a loss to the Knicks on Monday. That game against the Raptors saw them shoot less than 30% from the field, which is about as poor a field goal percentage as you're going to see all season. The good news is they haven't allowed the opponent to score more than 108 points in any of those last three games. The Cavs will be happy to see Chicago after they gave up 129 points in a loss to Milwaukee Monday night. You may recall we laid the points with the Bucks there, a winning ticket. Before getting shredded by the Bucks, Cleveland allowed only 94 and 99 points in its first two games. They shot well in the home opener vs. Indiana, but don't expect too many night like that this season as the Cavs figure to be a pretty weak offensive team. They were held to 85 points in the season opener vs. Orlando. The Bulls aren't favored very often, but when they are the game usually goes Under (13-8 L3 seasons). Play UNDER Chicago-Cleveland AAA |
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10-29-19 | Grizzlies v. Lakers UNDER 220 | Top | 91-120 | Win | 100 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the UNDER The 2-1 Lakers are big favorites over the 1-2 Grizzlies tonight and we want no part of that number. But we do like the total as the Lakers have been surprisingly effective on the defensive end of the floor in their three games. The last two, both of which were home, really saw them keep the opponent in check. After beating Utah 95-86 on Friday, LA held Charlotte to 101 in a blowout win Sunday night. The Lakers also happened to have their best shooting night of the young season against the Hornets, making nearly 53% of their field goal attempts. That shouldn't happen here against the gritty Grizzlies, who have yet to allow an opponent to shoot even 48% from the field. Misleading final from the last Memphis game where they beat Brooklyn 134-133. Game went to overtime and neither really shot the ball all that well. In the first two games, the Grizzlies finished with field goal percentages of 42.7 and 41.5 and point totals of 101 and 102. Previous two seasons have seen the Grizz go 3-0 Under the game after scoring 130 points or more. Play UNDER Memphis-LA Lakers AAA |
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10-29-19 | Nationals +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on WASHINGTON +1.5 The big question here is can the Nationals stay alive and force a Game 7 in the World Series? Honestly, we don't know. But we are willing to bet on the fact they won't lose Game 6 by more than a run. What we do know is the road team is a perfect 5-0 in this series. That includes a 12-3 victory by Washington in Game 2, which was right here in Houston and had the same exact starting pitching matchup we have tonight. It's Stephen Strasburg vs. Justin Verlander. Strasburg has just as good of numbers as Verlander for the year and has been better in the playoffs. Verlander has allowed four runs in three of his five postseason starts. The Nationals have won the last six times Strasburg has started, four of those coming in the playoffs. All six starts during the win streak have been quality ones with Strasburg going a total of 38 innings and allowing just eight runs. He has 52 strikeouts vs. just 5 walks. Washington is 23-13 since 2017 when coming off three straight losses. At this price, Strasburg +1.5 is a bargain. Play WASHINGTON RUN LINE (+1.5) AAA |
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10-29-19 | Flyers v. Penguins -150 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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10-29-19 | Capitals v. Maple Leafs UNDER 6.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 9* play on the UNDER The amount of scoring in Capitals games has gotten fairly outrageous, so it's no shock to see this game with the Maple Leafs have a high total. These are the two highest scoring teams in the league right now with Washington's 50 goals leading the way and Toronto not far behind at 46. Additionally, both have given up their fair share with the Caps having surrendered the most in their division and the Leafs allowing two more than that. The Over is 7-0 in Washington's last seven games. But here's the thing. All good streaks must come to an end. Seven straight games with seven or more goals scored is quite the streak. It's not something you see all that often. So even though this particular matchup seems the most conducive to producing an Over and everyone is on the Over, don't be shocked when this one stays Under. Though they've had three days off, tonight's game marks the end of a long five-game road trip (most of it in Canada) for the Capitals. They may not have much left in the proverbial tank. Toronto scored just two goals in its last game, which was a loss to Montreal. Play UNDER Washington-Toronto AAA |
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10-28-19 | Nuggets -6 v. Kings | Top | 101-94 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on DENVER While this seems like a bit of a "square" play, fact is the Kings aren't a very good team right now. They've opened with three straight losses and all of them have been by double digits. Getting blown out by Phoenix to start the season was a troubling sign. But even worse than that 29-point defeat was losing Marvin Bagley III, who is one of their top players. Bagley is expected to be out for at least a month. Something else that seems "out" in Sacramento is defense. They have let every opponent shoot 50% or better. Saturday night, they were buried in Utah, 113-81. Now they must face Denver, who is 2-0 and doing an excellent job defensively. Being 2-0 while barely shooting 40% overall is actually a good sign for a Nuggets team we know can score. Our guess is they find the offensive touch tonight. Another of Sacramento's key players, De'Aaron Fox is battling a hip injury as well. We just can't see this being a close game as the Nuggets are 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS the last seven meetings. Play on DENVER AAA |
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10-28-19 | Dolphins +15 v. Steelers | Top | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI The Dolphins were so bad at the start of the season that the idea of backing them in any situation just sounded gross. But we took them a couple of weeks ago, as a home dog vs. Washington, and they covered the spread. They actually almost won the game. A late touchdown pulled them within a point. Coach Brian Flores, seeing an opportunity to nab his first win, decided to go for the 2-pt conversion and the win. That failed, but we still respect the aggressiveness. Another Flores decision we concur with is starting Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB. Since Fitzpatrick (permanently?) replaced Josh Rosen, the Miami offense has looked much better. Last week, the Dolphins gained a solid 5.8 yards per play against a Bills defense that had previously shut down Tom Brady. That Bills defense came in third in the league in yards per play allowed. The Miami defense has also gotten better in recent weeks. They held Buffalo to only nine points in three quarters. Two of the three touchdowns allowed in that game were not the fault of the defense as one came after a turnover inside their own 20-yard line another was a kick return. A 2-4 Steelers team should not be laying this many points with a backup quarterback coming off a concussion. Mason Rudolph is the first QB since 1995 to be laying two touchdowns with four or less career starts under his belt. Double digits favorites with a win percentage of .333 or worse are just 2-7 ATS all-time. Play on MIAMI AAA |
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10-28-19 | Cavs v. Bucks -15 | Top | 112-129 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE Both sides are coming off surprising results here. Cleveland won its home opener as a 5-point dog, beating undermanned Indiana 110-99. While that was going on, Milwaukee blew a 21-point lead at home to Miami and lost in overtime. Let's look for order to be restored on Monday. The Cavs are going to be one of the worst teams in the league this year. They scored only 85 points against Orlando in the first game, which was on the road. Indiana did not have leading scorer Victor Oladipo for the second game. The Bucks are the obvious choice to finish first in the East. They are going to be too much for Cleveland, provided they stop fouling and can make their usual number of threes. Houston and Miami were able to go to the free throw line a combined 75 times against Milwaukee. Cleveland is averaging just 22 foul shots per game and when they get there, they really aren't making them (65%). Milwaukee attempts over 50 three pointers per game and if they are making 15-20, the Cavs lack the firepower to keep up. Three different times last season, the Bucks beat the Cavs by double digits. The two games here at home were decided by a combined 38 points. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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10-27-19 | Hornets v. Lakers UNDER 216 | Top | 101-120 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER Both Lakers games have gone Under. The last one was a 95-86 win over Utah. They only scored 102 points in the opener, which was a loss to the Clippers. Tonight they face a terrible Charlotte team that scored only 99 points in the last game. We aren’t expecting much from the Hornets this year and nor should you. But they might be able to hang around because the Lakers are only shooting 41% through two games. The Under is 35-15-1 the Lakers last 51 home games. Play UNDER Charlotte-LA Lakers AAA |
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10-27-19 | Packers v. Chiefs +4 | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -109 | 51 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* on KC Kansas City won’t have Patrick Mahomes this week. However, they’ve had extra time to get Matt Moore ready as they played the Thursday game last week. Moore certainly appeared competent enough in that Thursday night win over Denver. Despite missing Mahomes for a large portion of the game, the Chiefs still won 30-6. They are 5-1 ATS the last six times as an underdog, a role they are now in for the first time this season. Green Bay is 6-1 but hasn’t been dominant. They’ve actually outgained only two of their opponents. The Chiefs defense allowed just 205 total yards last week, so don’t be surprised if they pick up the slack in Mahomes absence. Andy Reid is 15-8 ATS in regular season games when he’s had at least 10 days to prepare. Play on KANSAS CITY AAA |
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10-27-19 | Raiders v. Texans UNDER 52 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 47 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on UNDER Despite being a dog in all six games, Oakland is 3-3. Houston is 4-3. Both teams are off losses. The Raiders gave up 42 points to the Packers, a game which turned when QB Derek Carr fumbled the ball through the end zone. The Texans lost a key AFC South battle in Indianapolis as the Colts were off a bye. With the Raiders 4-0 Over the L4 games and the Texans 3-0 Over the L3 games, it’s not a shock that the total for this week has been bet up. But it’s too high in our opinion. The Under is 8-2 in Raiders games that have a total of 50 points or higher the last three seasons. This year, the Raiders have scored more than 24 points only once. The key here becomes the Raiders holding Houston under 30 points, which is certainly doable as the Texans have scored more than 28 just two times. The Under is also 16-7 in the Texans last 23 AFC games and 6-1 their last 7 home games. Play UNDER Houston-Oakland AAA |
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10-27-19 | Bucs v. Titans -2.5 | Top | 23-27 | Win | 100 | 44 h 60 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TENNESSEE Tennessee is 3-4, but would be 2-5 had Melvin Gordon not fumbled at the goal line last week. They host a Tampa Bay team that’s 2-4 and off a bye. The Bucs certainly could have won over in London two weeks ago, but seven turnovers vs. Carolina guaranteed they didn’t. This isn’t the best spot for Tampa Bay. Not only are they 0-7 the last seven games as a road underdog of three points or less, they’re also 1-8 ATS the last nine October games. The NFC may be the stronger conference, but the Titans are 7-2 ATS the last nine non-conference games. Ryan Tannehill is now the starting QB at Tennessee and with him under center, the offense had its most yards in a game last week (403). Now they face one of the worst defenses in the league. The Titans defense is 4th in the league in scoring. Jameis Winston still turns it over too much and he’s been sacked 13 times the last two games. Play on TENNESSEE AAA |
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10-27-19 | Chargers v. Bears -3.5 | Top | 17-16 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 59 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on CHICAGO You get the feeling that both the Chargers and Bears are heading in the wrong direction. Both teams made the playoffs a year ago. The Chargers are now 2-5 while the Bears are 3-3. The Chargers have lost three straight (all by seven points or fewer) while the Bears have lost two straight. Something will have to give this week as LA is on a 13-5 ATS run on the road and Chicago is on a 13-6 ATS run at home. Bears QB Trubisky is under fire but is 9-3 ATS vs. teams that have a losing record. He’s facing a bad pass defense this week. The Chargers have a ton of injuries at key positions and the return of running back Melvin Gordon has done nothing. Gordon is averaging just 2.3 yards per rush. The Bears still have a strong defense even though it didn’t look good last week against New Orleans. Play on CHICAGOAAA |
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10-27-19 | Jets v. Jaguars -6 | Top | 15-29 | Win | 100 | 44 h 59 m | Show |
This is an 8* on JACKSONVILLE The Jets were just humiliated Monday night by the Patriots. They aren’t likely to play that poorly again, but a short week isn’t likely to cure all that ills them. Jacksonville is 3-4 and has a chance to get to .500 with a win here. They beat Cincinnati 27-17 last week. Gardner Minshew II is doing a pretty good job at quarterback. He’s 3-0 ATS against losing teams. Jets QB Darnold is 5-10-1 ATS as a starter. Jets coach Adam Gase is 4-13 ATS in his career (includes Miami obviously) when getting five or more points and has won just one of the games straight up. The Jaguars defense is banged up, but fortunately the Jets offense isn’t good. There has been only one game where the Jets scored more than 16 points. The line has given up the second most sacks. Too short of a number. Play on JACKSONVILLE AAA |
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10-26-19 | Washington State +14.5 v. Oregon | Top | 35-37 | Win | 100 | 51 h 36 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on WASHINGTON STATE Did you know that Washington State has covered nine times in a row against Oregon? Or that they've beaten the Ducks on the field each of the last four years? Most people probably don't know the answer to both of those questions is "yes" and will happily lay the points here. Not us. Now this play is not being made solely out of anger over our loss with last week's "Game of the Year" play. But what we witnessed in that Oregon-Washington game does obviously have some bearing. The Ducks ran 13 more plays in that game, yet gained only 20 more total yards. At one point, Washington (the underdog) led by 14 points. Oregon was in the lead for only one-quarter of actual game time. They led 7-0 for about nine minutes in the first quarter and then the final 5:10 after the go-ahead score. The defense was exposed a little bit in giving up 6.8 yards per play to Washington. Say what you will about Washington State, but we know the Cougs can score. They are 4th nationally in total offense. Getting points is a luxury they've gotten to have only other time this year. While that game (at Utah) didn't go well, the amount of points they were getting in that game was far less than what they are getting here. Oregon is just 4-12 the last 16 times they've been off an ATS win. Play on WASHINGTON STATE AAA |
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10-26-19 | California v. Utah OVER 36 | Top | 0-35 | Loss | -118 | 50 h 60 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the OVER Playing the Over here is the ultimate contrarian call seeing as Cal is 6-1 to the Under and so is Utah. Cal's last three games have all gone Under. So have Utah's last five. But this is a REALLY low total for a College Football game being played in 2019. Utah has had some games with totals in the 60's. This will be the lowest total in any game for either team this season and could close as the lowest total all year in College Football the way things are going. Only two Utah games this year have seen less than 42 points scored. One was a shutout of Idaho State, who is a FCS team. The other was last week's 21-3 win over Arizona State. Cal definitely struggles to put points on the board and will probably struggle here too. But they can score enough to get this one Over. Yes, we know they may have to turn to an untested starter. But this number is just too low not to bet it Over. Play OVER Cal-Utah AAA |
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10-26-19 | Astros v. Nationals UNDER 8.5 | Top | 8-1 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER The road team is 3-0 in this World Series. The Over won in Games 1 and 2. The Under came in for Game 3. If you’re looking for a pattern with the total, the two Overs hit in the American League park (pitchers don’t have to bat) while the Under hit in a National League park (pitchers have to come up to bat). Looking at these patterns, you’d expect the home team to win a game eventually. It might happen tonight. But we aren’t willing to bet on it. The Under seems like the right call. While there’s no “ace” on the mound tonight, Pat Corbin has pitched very well for Washington this year, especially when at home. Corbin has a 14-3 TSR here in the Beltway. He also has a 2.62 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. You have to remember the Houston lineup is not at full strength with the DH out. Urquidy will get the start in Game 4 for the Astros. While this is his first postseason start, he allowed 1 run or less in four of his last five regular season starts. Play UNDER Houston-Washington AAA |
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10-26-19 | Magic v. Hawks UNDER 218 | Top | 99-103 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER The Hawks pulled a small upset in their first game, beating Detroit 117-100. They shot 51.2% in the game, led by Trae Young’s 38 points. They were a bit fortunate to draw the Pistons in the second game of a back to back there. Don’t expect Atlanta to shoot that well again tonight. Orlando is a tougher opponent, one that allowed just 85 points in its first game. Yes they were facing Cleveland. But the Magic were a good defensive team last year. Only two teams in the Eastern Conference allowed a fewer number of points per game. But they only scored 94 points against the Cavs, which really isn’t a good sign. The Under is 36-15 for the Magic when off an ATS loss. Play UNDER ATLANTA-ORLANDO AAA |
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10-26-19 | Central Michigan +2.5 v. Buffalo | Top | 20-43 | Loss | -104 | 44 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on CENTRAL MICHIGAN Central Michigan is now 5-3 after winning its last three games. Two of their three losses have come against Power 5 teams and one of them was by just five at Miami. This Saturday, the Chippewas are getting points from a Buffalo team that hasn't exactly been impressive. The Bulls are 3-4, but two of the wins were against Robert Morris and winless Akron. The other was a real shocker vs. Temple as they were 14-point underdogs heading into that contest. But that game saw them catching Temple off its own big upset the week prior against Maryland. Bottom line is we feel CMU is the better team here. Buffalo has has lots of trouble scoring this year. The Temple win marked the only time in 2019 that the Bulls scored more than 21 points against a FBS team. They failed to gain even 250 yards last week vs. Akron, a game where they were gifted four turnovers. They've yet to cover off a straight up win this year. Central Michigan had almost 600 yards of offense in its 38-20 win over Bowling Green last Saturday. They are 4-0 ATS vs. teams with losing records this year. This is a major revenge game for the Chippewas too as they haven't forgotten losing to UB 34-24 at home last year. Play on CENTRAL MICHIGAN AAA |
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10-26-19 | Akron +23 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 0-49 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 40 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on AKRON If you think Akron is the worst team in the country, we can't blame you. The Zips aren't just 0-7 straight up. They are also 0-7 against the spread! Only two other teams (Rice, New Mexico State) don't have a win of the straight up variety. Every team besides the Zips have covered at least once. They've even lost to a UMass team that many would consider the worst team in the country. But while most have given up on Akron, we'll back them this week at Northern Illinois. Obviously, you won't be shocked to learn they are getting a ton of points here. Northern Illinois is not the same juggernaut they once were though. They are 2-5 with one win coming by three points and the other against a FCS team. Last week, as two-point favorites, the Huskies lost at Miami. Consider that NIU doesn't even average enough points/game to cover this spread. They are averaging just 21.4 points/game for the year. Even though the offense was shutout, Akron's defense played pretty well last week. They held Buffalo under 250 yards. They lost 21-0 but that would be a cover with this pointspread. Only two of the Zips losses have been by a larger number than this pointspread. You know they won't go the full season without covering a game. Last year's game was close. Akron was an extra point away from tying, but had that blocked and returned for two points the other way. Northern Illinois would then intercept a pass and return that for a TD, making it a misleading 36-26 final. Play on AKRON AAA |
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10-26-19 | Iowa v. Northwestern +10.5 | Top | 20-0 | Loss | -115 | 44 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NORTHWESTERN At 5-2 and 1-5 respectively, it would seem that Iowa and Northwestern are "worlds apart" this season. However, this is still a conference rivalry. Neither record should be surprising as Iowa has won the five times it has been favored and lost the two times it has been an underdog. Northwestern has only been favored in one game this year (UNLV) and that's their only win (30-14). The Wildcats are coming off a brutal gauntlet of Michigan State, Wisconsin, Nebraska and Ohio State. The two road games (Wisconsin, Nebraska) were actually the tighter games, but let's not go disregarding Pat Fitzgerald's record as a home underdog just yet, okay? Northwestern has beaten Iowa three years in a row including a 14-10 win last year in Iowa City that clinched the Big 10 West. The Wildcats were 10-point road underdogs in that game, now they're getting a near identical number in Evanston. Iowa has not scored more than 26 points in any of its last four conference games. So you have to wonder if they are built to cover double digits on the road. The only other time the Hawkeyes were a road favorite this year (at Iowa State), they did not cover. They've actually only covered two games all year and those were against Rutgers and Middle Tennessee. The memory of Northwestern getting killed by Ohio State last Friday is what set this line. The Wildcats are 21-7 ATS following a double digit loss at home. Play on NORTHWESTERN AAA |
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10-25-19 | USC v. Colorado +14 | Top | 35-31 | Win | 100 | 30 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* on COLORADO USC is coming off a 41-14 win over Arizona where they were 10.5-point home favorites. But let's not forget that this team is still only 4-3 and has used three different quarterbacks in 2019. All three losses have taken place out on the road and this Friday finds them in Boulder taking on Colorado. Quarterback isn't the only position where USC is dealing with injuries either. Three running backs are injured. The top two definitely won't play in this game. As impressive as the Trojans looked last week, it was just their second win of the season by more than eight points. They were also a little lucky to beat Utah (also on a Friday) early in the year and have lost as road favorites before (at BYU). We will concede the point that Colorado hasn't played well recently. The Buffaloes have lost three in a row and four of their last five games. The last two games were both blowout losses, but those losses were at Oregon and Washington State, which are two tough places to play. Often, it can be something as simple as homefield advantage that can sway things in a positive direction. Colorado has already pulled one upset this year in Boulder, beating Nebraska. Their two losses (at home) were both one score games. Bet on the Buffaloes being motivated as they've never been able to beat USC in 13 all-time tries, including eight as Pac 12 rivals. It's not like they needed any added motivation already being on a 3-game losing streak. USC is just 1-4 ATS the L5 times they've been off an ATS win and they are 1-6 ATS their last seven Friday games. This is all about value as Southern Cal is favored by too many points. Play on COLORADO AAA |
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10-25-19 | Mavs v. Pelicans -2.5 | Top | 123-116 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on NEW ORLEANS This was supposed to be a spotlight game for the Pelicans #1 draft choice Zion Williamson, but he got hurt in the preseason so ESPN is going to have to find something else to talk about. In the first game without Williamson, the Pelicans took Toronto to overtime Wednesday. They ended up not covering (lost 130-122) as they were 7.5-point dogs, a brutal result for anyone who may have taken the points. As tough a loss as it was for the Pelicans and their backers, we're looking for them to take their frustrations out on Dallas in the home opener Friday. That first game showed the Pelicans still must be taken seriously even without their prized rookie. There were just too many turnovers, especially late in the second half and in overtime. Dallas got to play a cupcake in its season opener, Washington, but didn't cover as nine-point favorites. They won 108-100. So we're looking at both teams coming off 1-pt ATS losses. The game is in New Orleans where the Mavericks lost twice last year. The Pelicans got 57 points from their bench against Toronto, showing they are more than just Williamson. It being a short number, let's lay it! Play on NEW ORLEANS AAA |
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10-25-19 | Astros -135 v. Nationals | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on HOUSTON At the beginning of this series, the Astros were listed as the biggest favorite for any World Series going back to 2007. Not anymore. They lost both Games 1 and 2 at home and are now in a real hole as the series moves to Washington. The Nationals have won 18 of their last 20 including eight straight. The last time a team lost Games 1 and 2 at home and went on to win the WS was 1996. It's only happened three times in history. But we're willing to throw our weight behind Zack Greinke and Houston tonight. This Astros team is too good to lose three in a row. That's happened only five times all season and two of those five losing streak were before the end of April. Greinke has pitched quite well against Washington in his career. He's 6-1 with a 1.27 ERA in nine starts and one of those came this year in this stadium. As a member of Arizona, Greinke threw 7 1/3 shutout innings where he allowed only two hits. The Astros are 23-5 when playing after an off-day. The numbers say Washington's Game 3 starter Anibal Sanchez pitches better on the road than here at home. It's a must-win for the Astros and we'll play accordingly. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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10-25-19 | Bulls v. Grizzlies OVER 222 | Top | 110-102 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER The Bulls and Grizzlies each opened with losses. In both cases, a lot of points were given up. Chicago allowed 126 in a one-point loss to Charlotte where they blew a 10-point fourth quarter advantage. Memphis also played a terrible fourth quarter in its opener in Miami, getting outscored 37-17 on their way to a 120-101 loss. We don't expect much defense in this game. Memphis should shoot better than 42.7%, which is what the Heat held them to Wednesday night. The Bulls allowed Charlotte, who isn't a good team, to shoot 51.1%. They allowed 63 points in both halves. Memphis seemed well on its way to a big scoring night in Miami as they had 60 points by halftime. But the Heat shut them down in the second half. The Bulls shot very well in two games against Memphis last year (over 50%) and won both times. The Grizzlies are 36-25 Over their last 61 non-conference games. With Ja Morant in the fold, they're now a more dynamic team offensive. The Bulls added some pieces too and should be a better offensive team than they were a year ago. Play OVER Chicago-Memphis AAA |
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10-25-19 | Sharks v. Maple Leafs -165 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on TORONTO The Leafs are struggling a bit as they've lost two straight games. The first loss took place here at home as they got beat 4-3 by Columbus in overtime on a penalty shot. The following night they had to go to Boston and lost 4-2, which given the circumstance isn't all that worrisome. Having been off for two days, the team should rebound tonight. They face a San Jose team that now finds itself in the second game of a back to back and playing its third road game in four nights, all of which have been out East. The Sharks did win last night in Montreal 4-2. But that was after losing four of their first five road games. Toronto is scoring a lot more than San Jose is right now. There's a 12-goal difference between the teams as the Maple Leafs still remain one of the highest scoring teams in the league. Let's now hope the goaltending starts to improve. The Sharks lost the only other time they've been in a back to back this season, 3-1 to Anaheim back on October 5th. Take the well-rested team that's hungry for a win. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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10-24-19 | Clippers v. Warriors OVER 223.5 | Top | 141-122 | Win | 100 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the OVER It's weird to see the Warriors as a home dog to open the season. But they don't have Kevin Durant anymore (he left for Brooklyn) and Klay Thompson tore his ACL in the NBA Finals, meaning he's nowhere near ready to return. But Steph Curry and Draymond Green are still here, meaning Golden State still has plenty of ways to score points. Now that doesn't mean they'll beat the Clippers necessarily. But you shouldn't expect the Warriors to be held to 100 points either. The Clippers, of course, are now the favorite to win the Western Conference. They came from behind to beat the Lakers 112-102 on opening night. Kawhi Leonard led the way with 30 points against the Lakers, but four other Clippers were in double figures as well. You obviously don't need to remind the Warriors about what Leonard can do. He dominated them in last year's Finals as a member of the Toronto Raptors. We won with the Under in the Clippers first game, but they're facing a better offensive team tonight and it's on the road. So go with the Over for game #2. Play OVER Clippers-Warriors AAA |
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10-24-19 | Redskins +17.5 v. Vikings | Top | 9-19 | Win | 100 | 21 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WASHINGTON Oddsmakers are expecting a blowout Thursday night when the 5-2 Vikings host the 1-6 Redskins. Washington has been very poor this year in all facets and was just shut out Sunday in the rain by the 49ers. It was a 9-0 loss. The Skins had won their first game for interim coach Bill Callahan, beating Miami 17-16. Then they covered at home vs. the 49ers. So there is some limited progress being made, at least on the defensive end. Three of the past four games have seen the Redskins allow 24 points or less. The only one they didn't was against New England. Minnesota has been impressive on offense its last two games, but they haven't always been great and Kirk Cousins still shouldn't be trusted. Something to keep mind ... Since 2009, Minnesota has been -14 or more just one time. It was last year vs. Buffalo and they lost the game straight up. None of their wins this year have been by more than 20 points. Very hard to win in this league by this amount. The underdog has covered 7 of the last 10 times the teams have met. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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10-24-19 | SMU v. Houston OVER 65.5 | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -104 | 20 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the OVER SMU is one of the highest scoring teams in the country at 44.3 points per game. The fewest points they've scored in any game this year was 37 and that was in the very first game. Since then, it's been at least 41 in every game. With a range of 37 to 49 points scored in all games, the Mustangs have certainly been consistent. All seven of their games have gone Over so far. No other team has gone Over in every game. In all four of Houston's losses this year, they've allowed at least 31 points. If you take away Houston's two weakest opponents this year, which would be Prairie View A&M and Connecticut, the defensive numbers get real ugly. But help is on the way offensively as QB Clayton Tune is set to make his return to field. The last game Tune started and finished, the Cougars scored 46 points. They may not be as high-powered as they were when D'Eriq King was the quarterback, but Houston should still be respected offensively. They should score in the 30's while SMU should top 40 and that means the Over will hit again for the favorite. Play OVER SMU-HOUSTON AAA |
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10-24-19 | Coyotes v. Islanders -117 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the ISLANDERS Both the Coyotes (5-2-1) and Islanders (5-3) come into tonight on four-game win streaks. Arizona has been getting the job done by scoring plenty of goals (17) while the Islanders haven't been giving many up (7). So something will have to give tonight at the Nassau Coliseum. This being a home game for the Isles is an advantage. So is the schedule, which has given them last four days off. The 'Yotes just played Tuesday here in New York, against the Rangers. They won obviously, but needed overtime to do so. They're likely to struggle to score tonight. The Islanders not giving up many goals is nothing new. They gave up the fewest goals in the league in last year's regular season. Also, the first four games saw Arizona tally just seven goals. So the offensive decline seems all but inevitable this evening. Then you have the fact the Islanders have really had the 'Yotes number the last couple seasons. They swept the pair of matchups last year and are 10-3-2 the L15 times playing host. The Isles are also 16-5 their last 21 non-conference games. Play on NEW YORK AAA |
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10-23-19 | Thunder v. Jazz OVER 222.5 | Top | 95-100 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER First James Harden left, then Kevin Durant and finally Russell Westbrook. Oklahoma City figures to take a major tumble down the standings in 2019-20 in what should end up being a pretty ugly season. Don’t expect any sympathy from Utah though as the Jazz feel they have a legit shot at finishing first in the West. For Opening Night in Salt Lake City, expect plenty of points as the Thunder are going to struggle defensively. They’d already slipped pretty badly at that end last year and a less talented roster figures to do a worse job. The Thunder do have Chris Paul and we think they’ll be okay - relatively speaking - when it comes to scoring points. So should Utah. Bojan Bogdanovic is the kind of shooter they lacked a season ago. Over is 12-8 the L20 Jazz home games where the total was 220 or higher. Play OVER OKC-UTAH AAA |
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10-23-19 | Celtics v. 76ers -5 | Top | 93-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
This is an 8* on Philly Milwaukee comes into the year as the favorite to win the NBA’s Eastern Conference. As for the debate over “who’s #2?” it probably comes down to one of these teams.The 76ers host the Celtics to open the year and the winner will have made an early season statement in the Atlantic Division. We like the 76ers at home as they have more minutes returning from last season. Plus they nabbed Al Horford away from the Celtics. Horford joins Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid as the stars in Philly. Embiid was not healthy in the playoffs and this is obviously a much better team when he is healthy. Remember that Philly took eventual champion Toronto to seven games in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. Boston also lost in the semis, but there’s a lot of change here with Kemba Walker replacing Kyrie Irving, who was a failed experiment. Boston has covered the last five head to head meetings, but it’s time for that to change Wednesday as the Sixers should easily cover this short number at home. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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10-23-19 | Red Wings v. Senators UNDER 6.5 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER Detroit and Ottawa aren’t exactly doing a lot of scoring lately. The Red Wings have managed just seven goals during a five-game losing streak while the Senators have scored only five goals during their own four-game losing streak. So it stands to reason we won’t see many goals scored in this Wednesday night battle. Ottawa has scored the fewest goals in the league so far with just 17 in 8 games. The Under is 4-0-1 their last five games. Detroit isn’t averaging many shots, a good thing for Ottawa seeing as they’re giving up one of the highest shot totals in the league. Defense has been the Red Wings weak spot so far, but facing the lowest scoring team in the league is a reprieve. Under is 11-6 when Ottawa is off three straight road games. Play UNDER Detroit-Ottawa AAA |
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10-22-19 | Lakers v. Clippers UNDER 226.5 | Top | 102-112 | Win | 100 | 15 h 48 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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10-22-19 | Nationals v. Astros -183 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -183 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 6* on HOUSTON It’s come down to the Nationals and the Astros in the World Series. The AL contingent is a massie favorite here, not just for Game 1 but the series in general. They have Gerrit Cole pitching tonight and that gives them a huge edge against any opponent, even the Nationals with Max Scherzer going opposite Cole. Cole is probably going to be the AL Cy Young winner. He checks in with a 23-5 WL record this year, a 2.30 ERA and 0.89 WHIP and has only gotten more impressive with a postseason resume that includes a 0.40 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in three starts. He’s allowed 1 run in 22 ⅔ innings and has 32 strikeouts. The Astros have won the last 16 times Cole has started! Scherzer is great in his own right, but Cole is simply on a different level right now. The Nationals are just 9-11 this season as a road underdog of +125 or more. The Astros are 65-22 at home, outscoring teams by almost two full runs per game, and they are 23-8 priced between -175 and -250. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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10-22-19 | Nationals v. Astros UNDER 6.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
THis is a 9* play on the UNDER It’s come down to the Nationals and the Astros in the World Series. The AL contingent is a massive favorite here, not just for Game 1 but the series in general. They have Gerrit Cole pitching tonight. Cole is probably going to be the AL Cy Young winner. He checks in with a 23-5 WL record this year, a 2.30 ERA and 0.89 WHIP and has only gotten more impressive with a postseason resume that includes a 0.40 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in three starts. He’s allowed 1 run in 22 ⅔ innings and has 32 strikeouts. The Under is 5-1-1 in Cole’s last seven starts (0.71 ERA, 0.77 WHIP) with just the one Over being the only game where there were more than seven combined runs scored. Houston should feel lucky to have Cole pitching tonight because Washington has Max Scherzer. Scherzer also has a 3-0 TSR in the playoffs to go along with a 1.89 ERA and 0.89 WHIP. For the year, he has a 2.82 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. On the road, those numbers slightly improve to 2.43 and 0.91. When Scherzer and those kind of numbers represent the second best starter in a given matchup, the game is probably going Under. Play UNDER Washington-Houston AAA |
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10-22-19 | Kings v. Jets -136 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -136 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
We rode Winnipeg to a 1-0 victory over Edmonton on Sunday. That game did happen to go to a shootout, but keep in mind that they beat a team that entered with a record of 7-1. Here the Jets are going to be facing a much weaker foe in the Kings. The Kings are in last place in the Pacific, the same place where they finished last year. LA is off a rare win, 4-1 against Calgary, which snapped a three-game losing streak. But the win came at home. The Kings have won just once on the road so far. Winnipeg also snapped a three-game losing streak with that win over Edmonton, but remember what we said in our writeup. The previous three losses all came at home and that was something we could not see continuing. The Kings had been shutout in two straight games before beating the Flames. Fading them off a win seems like a smart move, especially with this being the second of two straight road games. Play on WINNIPEG |
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10-21-19 | Patriots v. Jets OVER 43 | Top | 33-0 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
THis is a 10* on OVER New England and New York already played once this year and it was a 30-14 win by the Patriots. The Jets actually failed to score an offensive touchdown in that game (1 def, 1 ST), but that was with Luke Falk making his first career NFL start at quarterback. Falk is thankfully no longer around as Sam Darnold returned last week to throw for 300+ yards in an upset of Dallas. Darnold being on the field this time should automatically make the Jets more competitive. Despite not scoring an offensive touchdown in that first meeting, the Jets still covered. The game also went Over the total. If we can get an Over with one team not even scoring an offensive TD, it makes sense to come back with that same play for the rematch now that Darnold is the Jets QB. The Patriots average 31.7 points/game. So with the Jets likely to score more than they did the first go around with New England, all we need is an “average” type performance from the Patriots offense and this one should sail Over. The Over is 7-3 in the Jets past 10 home games. Play OVER New England-NY Jets AAA |
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10-21-19 | Blue Jackets v. Maple Leafs UNDER 6.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Two teams with very different recent levels of scoring will skate against each other Monday. The last five games involving Columbus have all stayed Under. The last four, which consist of two wins and two losses for the Blue Jackets, have all been 3-2 finals. The Over is 4-0-1 in Toronto’s last five games with four of the five seeing at least seven total goals scored. Something will have to change tonight. We don’t think the Maple Leafs can continue to score almost 4.0 goals/game, so the change is more likely from their side. Now they did win in Columbus 4-1 on October 4th. Still that final score makes this total look too high. The Under is 6-0 the last six times the Blue Jackets have been an underdog. Toronto is without captain John Tavares. The Blue Jackets have gone six straight games without allowing more than three goals in regulation. Play UNDER Columbus-Toronto AAA |
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10-20-19 | Eagles v. Cowboys -2.5 | Top | 10-37 | Win | 100 | 94 h 6 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on DALLAS Huge game in the NFC East this week as the winner will be in first place with a key head to head win. Dallas has lost three in a row, all as favorites. You’d have to go back to 1974 to find the last time they lost four in a row as favorites. While things haven’t been going well of late, they have beaten Philly three straight times. The Eagles certainly didn’t look good last week in an 18-point loss at Minnesota. Their secondary was shredded and remains a huge question mark. So Dak Prescott should have a big game tonight, especially with the Cowboys offensive line now healthy (Tyron Smith back). The Cowboys are 12-2 SU/ATS their L14 division games. Play on DALLAS AAA |
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10-20-19 | Oilers v. Jets -132 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WINNIPEG Winnipeg has lost three in a row, all at home. They won’t lose four, right? Edmonton is 7-1, but has had to come back multiple times and is being outshot on the year. They have a shooting percentage of nearly 15%, which will not continue. The Jets and Oilers have played six times the last two years. Winnipeg has won five of those games. They are also 5-1 the last two seasons when off three consecutive losses. We just can’t see the Jets losing four in a row at home. We remain skeptical of Edmonton. With two days off to prepare for this one, look for the home team to grab the two points. Play on WINNIPEG AAA |
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10-20-19 | Cardinals v. Giants UNDER 50.5 | Top | 27-21 | Win | 100 | 87 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the UNDER Arizona is 2-3-1. The Giants are 2-4. All that enthusiasm surrounding the move to Daniel Jone at QB in the Big Apple seems to have quieted. The Giants have lost two straight games, though those were against the Vikings and Patriots, two of the better teams in the league (one of them THE best). Speaking of new QBs, the Cardinals obviously continue to roll with rookie Kyler Murray. He guided his team to a wild 34-33 win over Atlanta last week where the Cards were lucky that Falcons kicker Matt Bryant missed the potential game-tying extra point. The last two games have been Murray and the offense's best showings yet. Not coincidentally, Arizona won both games. But they were also facing two terrible defenses. The Giants defense isn't exactly what we'd call great, but neither is an offense which has scored 24 points the last two games. Actually, one of their two touchdowns last week came from the defenses. That game with the Patriots was a terrible beat for anyone with the Under as there were three non-offensive scores in the game (two by New England). Take those away and you wouldn't come close to approaching the number this week. The Giants have averaged just over 210 yards/game the last two weeks. Under is 6-1 for Arizona if they allowed 30 or more points the previous week. Play UNDER Arizona-NY Giants AAA |
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10-20-19 | Raiders v. Packers -5 | Top | 24-42 | Win | 100 | 87 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on GREEN BAY Green Bay needed some serious help from the refs to get by Detroit on Monday Night Football. The Lions still covered, which is all we needed. But a closer inspection of the box score reveals it was Detroit that may actually have been a bit lucky to leave with the cash. Sure, the officiating got all the headlines. But the Packers were +148 in total yardage. They turned it over three times and still won. Winning a game where you're -3 in the turnover department is not an easy thing to do. Take away those miscuses and there's probably no discussion of the referees at all. On a short week, the Packers turn around and are set to host the Raiders. Oakland is off a bye. The last two games have both been upset victories for the Silver and Black, first over Indianapolis, then over Chicago in London. We can't see a third straight upset though. They've lost and failed to cover the only other two times in the last three years they've been off two straight wins. They're also still just 4-14 SU and 5-12-1 ATS the last 18 road games. Gruden has them improving, but the Raiders still aren't ready to go on the road and beat Aaron Rodgers. They haven't beaten the Packers since 1987! Green Bay is 2-0 ATS after its last two times playing on MNF, so no need to worry about the short week. Play on GREEN BAY AAA |
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10-20-19 | Texans v. Colts | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 30 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the COLTS The Colts are coming off a bye and not getting enough respect here against the Texans. Both teams are 4-2. Before the bye, Indianapolis went into Kansas City and beat the Chiefs, holding them to only 13 points. We think they are certainly capable of doing the same to Deshaun Watson and Houston. The Texans don’t always do the best job at protecting Watson, who has been sacked 18 times in six games. The Colts defense typically does a tremendous job at pressuring the quarterback. In the three meetings last year, one of them a playoff win, the Colts sacked Watson a total of 15 times. Making matters worse for Houston, they lost their right tackle to a MCL injury last week. When the Colts offense is on the field, look for QB Brissett to have a big day. He had 10 TD passes in the first four games, throwing for at least two. The Texans defense is suspect through the air, allowing the second most completions in the league. Receiver TY Hilton has typically had big games against the Texans in his career. The Colts have won 13 of their last 19 games overall. They are at home and the bye week is a big advantage here. Play on INDIANAPOLIS AAA |
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10-19-19 | Air Force v. Hawaii UNDER 64 | Top | 56-26 | Loss | -109 | 83 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on UNDER It's the usual late start out in Hawaii (11 PM easter) with Air Force making the trip out to Honolulu. Both teams enter this game with a 4-2 record. However, one won last week (Air Force) while the other (Hawaii obviously!) lost. The only thing the last two Hawaii games have in common is the winner scored a lot of points. It was them putting up 54 in thrashing of Nevada on September 28th. But then they gave up 59 last week to Boise State. Air Force obviously runs a much different offense than most teams with the triple option. While the Flyboys have scored 40 or more in every home game, they are averaging just under 25 PPG on the road. The run first approach should theoretically shorten this game. Last week, the Falcons attempted only three passes in their 43-24 win over Fresno State. They did run for 340 yards. But this total is much higher than all their other games this year. Hawaii has been involved in some wild ones so far, but they've also faced three Pac 12 teams + Boise State. Most of the offenses they go up against the rest of the way will be weaker than what they've already gone against. Don't discount the effect the trip itself might have on the Air Force offense. Hawaii has one of the most unique home field advantages in the sport. These two high-powered offenses should each "slow down" a bit Saturday night. Play UNDER Air Force-Hawaii AAA |
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10-19-19 | Rice -4.5 v. UTSA | Top | 27-31 | Loss | -107 | 78 h 58 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on RICE Let's get this out right away. UTSA is 0-14 ATS its L14 home games where the total falls into the range of 42.5 to 49 points. Maybe that trend doesn't sound so meaningful to you, but what should be meaningful to everyone is the fact that 0-6 Rice is giving points on the road. That, right there, should be a signal as to how bad this UTSA team is. The Roadrunners are 2-4, but their two wins were against UTEP and Incarnate Word. The way we see it, there are only three FBS that UTSA would be favored against regardless of locale ... UTEP, Akron and UMass. They already faced UTEP and won't see the other two on the schedule. So don't expect UTSA to win another game. Rice has not won many games the last few years, but even they've beaten UTEP twice since 2016 and did so by margins much greater than what UTSA pulled off two weeks ago. While winless in 2019, Rice has played two good teams - Army and Baylor - tough. They probably should have beaten Army (lost 14-7 on a late TD). Last week at UAB was a one-point game at halftime before the Blazers scored back to back touchdowns, the second coming off a turnover. Three of Rice's six losses have been by eight points or less. With the season now half over, the Owls have to figure this is their best shot at winning (they will play at UTEP in the final regular season game). Having lost four straight times to UTSA, the motivation is going to be really high on the Rice sideline. Can't say the same for UTSA. Play on RICE AAA |
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10-19-19 | Kentucky +26 v. Georgia | Top | 0-21 | Win | 100 | 43 h 42 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on KENTUCKY Georgia is off one of the most shocking losses of the year (to South Carolina) and dropped to #10 in the rankings as a result. The Bulldogs were 20.5 point favorites and outgained the Gamecocks 468-297. But they still lost, primarily due to four turnovers (one was a pick-six) and finally a missed FG by the uber-reliable kicker Rodrigo Blankenship in double overtime. After a loss like, the expectation will be for Georgia to come out with a vengeance. But be wary of laying this big number against a dangerous Kentucky team. While the Wildcats aren't quite the same caliber as they were a year ago (when they won 10 games), they'll relish being big underdogs in this spot. They beat Arkansas last week, despite having a backup quarterback. In Lexington, they are hoping that starter Sawyer Smith is back this week. But if he isn't, backup Lynn Bowden has proven himself serviceable. Remember South Carolina beat Georgia last week despite being down to its THIRD string QB. The Wildcats are 4-0 ATS off their previous four victories. Georgia is just 1-4 ATS its last five home games. The Bulldogs have covered six in a row in this SEC East rivalry, but their confidence is shaky right now as is the offense. Look for UK to stay within the number. Play on KENTUCKY AAA |
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10-19-19 | Oregon v. Washington +3 | Top | 35-31 | Loss | -120 | 124 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on WASHINGTON The biggest game of the season in the Pac 12 North is set to go down this Saturday in Seattle and it just so happens to be our biggest play of the entire College Football regular season. Washington hosts Oregon in a battle of top 25 teams. Washington just found its way back into the polls after 51-27 win over Arizona last week. The Huskies had been upset the previous week, on the road, as 17-point favorites by Stanford. It was their second time losing outright as a double digit favorite as Cal also got them back in Week 2. Oregon comes in flying high off a 45-3 beatdown over Colorado last Friday night. Since that game was on national television, the perception of this Ducks team is probably the highest its been all year. Oregon has lost just one time, the season opener vs. Auburn, and that was a game they led for 59 minutes. Since then, they've allowed 25 points in five games, beating both Stanford and Cal along the way. But this will clearly be the Ducks toughest test since the Auburn game and probably the rest of the season. Oregon had seized control of this rivalry for a long time, but then it was Washington winning convincingly in both 2016 and 2017 by a combined 84 points. Last year's game went to overtime with Oregon winning 30-27 as three-point underdogs - in Eugene. So its a revenge game for Washington, not to mention also a must-win seeing as a third conference loss would all but kill their chances of winning this division. The game taking place in Seattle is very meaningful. Washington is 13-2 its previous 15 Pac 12 home games. Oregon is 4-11 its last 15 Pac 12 road games. The Huskies can also play some defense as the 27 points given up last week, in a 24-point victory, ironically were a season-high. Led by QB Jacob Eason, the offense also happened to score a season-high in points. This is going to be a much tougher game than what Oregon has been experiencing over the last month and it will be interesting to see how they react, especially on the road. It has been a long time since Washington was an underdog at home. The year was 2015, just Chris Petersen's second as head coach here. So this opportunity doesn't arise very often. We love the value here on a team that hasn't been beaten by more than one possession in three years. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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10-18-19 | UNLV +16.5 v. Fresno State | Top | 27-56 | Loss | -112 | 48 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNLV UNLV shocked a lot of people when they beat Vanderbilt last Saturday. It wasn't just that the Rebels won; they did so by 24 as a 16-point underdog. Something to keep in mind is that this was a 1-win team that went across the country and beat an SEC team. UNLV's only prior win was against Southern Utah. The four losses that followed had many questioning the future of coach Tony Sanchez. In none of those four losses did the Rebels score more than 17 points. Two unheralded players led the offensive resurgence. QB Oblad, only starting because of an injury to Armani Rogers, had an efficient game as he threw for 10.8 yards per attempt. RB Chad Maygar went for a career-best 116 yards. While this UNLV team obviously still has a way to go, this week's opponent appears to be on a downward trajectory after winning 22 games the last two years. Fresno State lost 43-24 against Air Force last week, which dropped them to 2-3 on the year. Now the Bulldogs were underdogs in all three losses. But they were only a three-point dog last week. Their two wins have been by 13 and 14 points, so oddsmakers are asking FSU to do something this week that they have not been able to do all season and that's win a game by more than two touchdowns. The Bulldogs defense got gashed on the ground last week by Air Force as it clearly wore down late. This is just a lot of points to lay for a team that hasn't looked all that good this season. UNLV is 10-5 ATS its past 15 road games. Play on UNLV AAA |
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10-18-19 | Astros v. Yankees +1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 9* play on the YANKEES (RUN LINE) It's do or die for the Yankees Friday night as they now face a 3-1 series deficit. After winning Game 1 by a score of 7-0, it's been all downhill. But they do get one more home game. With everyone pretty much writing their chances off at this point, we think it's a good time to "double down" and take them on the run line as they should at least keep Game 5 close, if not win it. James Paxton is starting tonight. He had won 10 straight decisions before getting a quick hook in Game 2. The final score of that game was 3-2, so you can see why the run line could be a good idea tonight. Beating Justin Verlander is not easy, but the Rays did it at home in Game 4 of the ALDS. We think the Yankees can do the same here as they are in the situation the Rays were, that being facing elimination in a home game. The Yankees are 5-2 this season after losing their last three games. Getting the Yankees this offense with a +1.5 at home isn't something that happens very often. It's a shockingly low price too. Paxton has been a "stopper" this year with a 6-0 TSR the last six times he's started off a Yankees loss. The team is also 6-0 in his last six starts at home. Play the YANKEES on the RUN LINE (+1.5) AAA |
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10-18-19 | Rangers v. Capitals -200 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 6* play on WASHINGTON Great spot to play the Capitals tonight, in our opinion. They're rested while the Rangers are in the second night of a back to back. The Rangers lost 5-2 in New Jersey last night. That's a Devils team that had been winless in its first six games. Washington has been one of the Rangers least favorite opponents the last few years. They lost all four times to them in 2018-19 and are 1-4-5 SU the L10 meetings. The Capitals come in fresh here after beating Toronto 4-3 Wednesday night. Scoring goals hasn't been an issue the last four games for Washington as they've found the back of the net 16 times. They have had their issues at the other end, but shouldn't here. The Rangers have only three goals in their last two games and went 0 for 6 on the power play last night. The schedule has been odd for the Rangers so far as they've played only four games. This kind of rest is good later in the season, but the amount of inaction this early leaves them rusty and they're not about to fix their issues in a game with no rest. Washington was already the superior team and seemingly has every edge that they'd need to get the two points here. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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10-18-19 | Pittsburgh v. Syracuse +3.5 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on SYRACUSE Syracuse seems to have taken a bit of a step back this year. The Orange are 3-3, so unless they win out, they're going to end up with a worse record than last season. A horrible showing against Maryland will probably haunt them the rest of the season, but there was no shame in losing to either Clemson or at North Carolina State. We actually faded the Orange in last Thursday's trip to Raleigh. They only lost 16-10 though despite allowing eight sacks and rushing 37 times for only 41 yards. The NC State defense is pretty special, which is something we're not sure we can say about Pitt's. The Panthers have allowed at least 30 points in half their games this year. They did hold Penn State in check, but this is a team that's had to hit the road only one other time and that was two weeks ago when they beat Duke by a field goal. Pitt has won three in a row, but those three wins have been by seven total points. Against Duke, they blew a 23-point lead and needed a last minute touchdown for the 33-30 win. The Blue Devils certainly helped by turning the ball over six times. Remember that Syracuse started the year ranked in the top 25. QB DeVito has 9 TDs vs. 1 INT the L3 games, so he's played well despite being under constant pressure. The Orange lost this game last year, in overtime, 44-37 as a three-point road favorite. Time for them to turn the tide. Play on SYRACUSE AAA |
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10-17-19 | Sabres v. Kings UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-0 | Win | 104 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER The Sabres are off their regulation loss of the season, which came last night in Anaheim by a score of 5-2. At 5-1-1 though, they still lead the Atlantic Division w/ 11 points. Who knows how long that will last night, but tonight they seem to have a favorable matchup against the last place Kings. Los Angeles finished with the least amount of points in the Western Conference last season. They have started 2-4 this year and have had major issues keeping the opposition from scoring. Their 28 goals allowed are second most in the league right now. It's going to take a lot more than covering up a Taylor Swift banner to get this team pointed in the right direction. The good news though is they only allowed two goals in their last game, which took place Tuesday, and that was a season-low. The bad news is they got shutout by Carolina. Buffalo allowed two goals or less in four of its first six games before getting blitzed last night by Anaheim. But Carter Hutton should be back in goal tonight (Ulmark played last night) and he's been the better of the two goalies so far, including a 25-save shutout against Dallas on Monday. One area where the Sabres are due to drop off is the power play. We saw that last night with them going just 1 for 7 while having the man advantage. Previously, they'd converted a league-high 42.9% of the time on the power play, a number which cannot be maintained. The top power play team last year converted "only" 28.2% of the time. Play UNDER Buffalo-Los Angeles AAA |
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10-17-19 | Chiefs v. Broncos +3.5 | Top | 30-6 | Loss | -120 | 33 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DENVER Through four weeks, the Chiefs were 4-0 and the Broncos 0-4. But the last two weeks have seen a sudden change with Kansas City losing twice and Denver winning both of its games. So it's not a shock to us to see the line "tighten" as we get closer to kickoff. We very much give the Broncos a shot of winning here despite the fact you'd have to go all the way back to 2015 to find the last time they beat the Chiefs. It's a seven-game losing streak to the Chiefs, but before that Denver had actually beaten this division rival seven straight times. Kansas City has definitely been better in recent years but Patrick Mahomes is not 100% presently (ankle) and the offense has put up its two lowest point totals EVER with him as the starter the last two games. Denver's defense is playing well right now, having held the Chargers and Titans to 13 points and 450 yards total. Obviously, neither of those teams have the offensive firepower Kansas City does. But the Broncos defense is top four in the league in yards allowed and top seven in points allowed. They may not be as stingy as they were against the last two opponents, but they have the potential to keep Kansas City under 25 points. As for the Chiefs defense, it's never really been good. Last year, Mahomes and the offense were so productive that the defense was largely an afterthought. But now the defense is a problem for Andy Reid as it has given up 180 or more yards rushing each of the last four games. The Chiefs would be on a three-game losing streak right now if it wasn't for a last minute TD against Detroit. There have been only two games this year where Denver DIDN'T have the lead going into the final minute. We'll take the points. Play on DENVER AAA |
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10-17-19 | Chiefs v. Broncos UNDER 49 | Top | 30-6 | Win | 100 | 33 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the OVER Kansas City has scored its two lowest point totals EVER with Patrick Mahomes as the starting QB the last two games. They lost both and now must face a Denver defense that's playing with some confidence following two straight wins, the last one coming in shutout fashion. But the Chiefs offense, even with Mahomes hobbled, is still far more dangerous than what the Broncos have faced the last two weeks. It's certainly reasonable to expect Kansas City to score at least 24 points in this game. That's something they've done every time but once with Mahomes as the starter. That one time was two weeks ago against Indianapolis. By kickoff, this could very well end up as the lowest O/U for any Chiefs game so far this season. Denver's offense is going to have to pick up some of the slack as well, but that shouldn't be a problem going against a KC defense that is struggling right now. A year ago, the Chiefs allowed the second most yards in all of football. It hardly mattered with Mahomes and the offense putting up record numbers. But now the defense is a problem for Andy Reid as it has given up 180 or more yards rushing each of the last four games. The Chiefs have given up 26 or more points four times this year. The Over is 17-5 the Chiefs past 22 road games and 3-1-1 the last five times the Broncos have been off a win by at least two touchdowns. Play OVER Kansas City-Denver AAA |
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10-17-19 | Astros v. Yankees -124 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -124 | 20 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the YANKEES The Astros lead this series 2-1 after taking the last two games. Game 4 (originally set for Weds) was bumped back a day, which allows for a "re-shuffling" of the deck, pitching-wise. Both teams were intending on making Wednesday a "bullpen day," but with the rainout it will allow them to go back to their regular rotations. Now we get a repeat of the Game 1 matchup - Zack Greinke vs. Masahiro Tanaka - which was won by the Yankees 7-0. Greinke has struggled in two playoff starts, giving up five home runs. He's given up nine runs total in two games, lasting just 9 2/3 innings. Tanaka threw six innings of shutout ball in Game 1 while allowing only one hit. He's 2-0 in the playoffs as he allowed only one run and three hits against the Twins in the LDS. Houston has not done much offensively in this series as they've scored just seven runs in three games, on 17 hits. The Yankees are 70-28 their last 98 games as a home favorite of -125 to -175. They are 39-21 this year after a loss. Play on NY YANKEES AAA |
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10-17-19 | UL-Lafayette v. Arkansas State UNDER 67.5 | Top | 37-20 | Win | 100 | 45 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the UNDER Louisiana was the last team in the country to lose a game ATS. The loss happened last week at home to Appalachian State (who is still undefeated straight up), 17-7. It was quite the departure offensively for a Ragin Cajuns team that had scored 35 points or more four games in a row. They were held to just over 250 total yards as well. Appalachian State had the answer for what had been a dominant Louisiana run game, holding them to just 123 yards on 33 carries. For us, the game was a 45-point win on the Under! You'd hope that game at least provided a blueprint for Arkansas State, who has struggled defensively in 2019. Virtually all of the Red Wolves games this year have been high-scoring. The fewest total points scored in any ASU game is 55 and that ironically saw them allow all 55 (shutout loss to Georgia). Oddsmakers have taken note, however, and jacked up the O/U for this game. The Red Wolves have scored 90 points the last two years against Louisiana, but this game promises to be lower-scoring. The Ragin Cajuns defense has allowed more than 25 points in just one game and that was vs. Mississippi State. They are the top Sun Belt defense in terms of points allowed and just outside the top 30 nationally. While most are going to anticipate this being a shootout, you can look for it to stay Under as that's what 11 of ASU's last 16 conference games have done. Play UNDER UL Lafayette-Arkansas State AAA |