1* Free Play on Chargers/Titans over40½ -110
The Chargers (2-4) and Titans (2-4), who play in Tennessee Sunday afternoon, have played out virtually identical schedules with wins last coming three weeks ago. The over/under is set at 40.5 points.
After opening the season with an overtime win against Indianapolis, the Chargers dropped two straight before a win over Miami and then another two losses. The disappointing Chargers only managed 17 last week against Pittsburgh, but they’ve scored 30 points twice this year.
On average, Los Angeles is scoring 20 points per game on 378 yards while allowing 20 points per game on 333 yards.
It’s been a difficult season, but Philip Rivers has held up his end of the bargain by throwing for 1,785 yards with nine touchdowns and six picks. Rivers is coming off a 320-yard performance against the Steelers.
Tennessee has been good defensively, and will try to improve a struggling offense by replacing Marcus Mariota with Ryan Tannehill. Tannehill, who’s 3-1 against the Chargers, completed 13 of 16 passes for 144 yards in his 30 snaps against Denver.
On average, the Titans are scoring 16 points per game on 323 yards of offense while allowing 15 points per game on 342 yards.
1* Free NFL Pick on Philadelphia Eagles +3
I don't think the Cowboys struggles are going to subside when they host the Eagles on Sunday Night Football. Dallas has lost 3 straight after starting the season 3-0 and are fresh off a loss at the Jets as a 7-point favorite.
Sometimes scheduling can play tricks on ya. People couldn't get enough of Dallas to start the year, but their 3-0 start was against the Dolphins, Redskins and Giants. The offense has really struggled to get going against better teams and I think they are in for a long day against this Eagles defensive front. Philadelphia is No. 2 in the NFL against the run, allowing just 72.8 ypg.
I also love backing the Eagles off that embarrassing 38-20 loss at Minnesota. They are 7-3 ATS last 10 off a SU loss of more than 14 points. Cowboys are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 at home off an upset loss as a favorite and are just 5-14 ATS under Jason Garrett as a home favorite of 3 or less. Take Philadelphia!
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This Sunday at 4:25 p.m. the (5-1) New Orleans Saints will take on the Chicago Bears (3-2) at Soldier Field in Chicago. The Bears are currently 4 point favorites in the game with the total sitting at 38.
The New Orleans Saints have now won four in a row after a 13-6 win on the road in Jacksonville last week. Teddy Bridgewater completed 24 of 36 passes for 240 yards and a touchdown. Michael Thomas was his leading target in the game with 89 yards on eight receptions.The Saints had 104 rushing yards as a team, led by Latavius Murray with 44 yards on eight carries. The Saints were stingy in the game on the defensive side of the ball. They held the Jaguars to just 226 total yards with only 75 of them coming on the ground. Teddy Bridgewater has yet to lose a game as a starter this season. He has tossed the ball for 1,089 yards, seven touchdowns, and two interceptions. It’s safe to say the Chicago Defense will be his biggest test so far while filling in for Drew Brees.
Bears quarterback Mitchell Trubisky is listed as questionable, but expected to be the starter this week against the Saints. Trubisky was injured against the Vikings on September 29 and Chase Daniels has been under center ever since. I’m not taking the Bears minus 4 points because the starting QB is back, let's just say that, but it helps that Allen Robinson is playing like an elite WR again. He caught seven passes for 97 yards and two touchdowns in the Bears' 24-21 loss to the Raiders on Sunday and has been targeted at least 7x in every game this year, I don't think the Saints secondary matches up well with him. Also, Chicago has one of, if not the meanest defenses in the NFL this season and they are completely aware of the opportunity to win against the Saints without Drew Brees in the game.
At 3-2, the Bears still are in the running to win the NFC North. They still have two games against Detroit this season and another matchup with both Green Bay and Minnesota. A win against New Orleans during the season will have value in the playoffs.
I don’t think Bridgewater is ready for what’s getting ready to happen to him. He still has some legs and is able to scramble, but I think the pressure will get to him. One more prediction, Murray and Michael Thomas will need to do the heavy lifting on offense with Kamara joined by Jared Cook (ankle) and Tre'Quan Smith (ankle) on the inactive list. I see Chicago with a score on defense helping them cover the points.
Some trends to consider. New Orleans is 1-4 ATS last 5 after giving up less than 90 rushing yards previous game. Chicago is 11-5 ATS previous 16 games. Chicago is 4-1 ATS previous five games vs. NFC South, and are 8-0 ATS previous eight games at home vs. team with a winning record.
Back the Bears -4.
Good Luck, Razor Ray
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[1%] Free Play on Jets over 42½
The set-up: Philadelphia is 3-3 and off a 38-20 road loss at Minnesota. The Cowboys are 3-3 as well and they're off a terrible road loss to the Jets, falling 24-22. The Eagles defense looked particularly horrible last weekend though, allowing three TD passes to Kick Cousins and I think that Dak Prescott is going to bounce back here and take advantage at home. Philadelphia stand out DeSean Jackson has an abdomen issue and is listed as questionable for this one as well.
The pick: Despite the disappointing result last weekend, Prescott still finished with 277 passing yards and RB Ezekiel Elliot still finished with 105 rushing yards. Note as well that Philadelphia is a poor 2-5 ATS in its last seven following a road loss (including 0-1 ATS this year), while the Cowboys are still 7-3 ATS in their last ten as a home favorite.
1* FREE PICK on the Dallas Cowboys.
Jack’s Free Pick Sunday: Eagles/Cowboys UNDER 49
Both the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles are highly motivated for a win here Sunday night in the NFC East rivalry. The Eagles are coming off a bad loss at Minnesota, while the Cowboys are coming off three straight upset losses. This game will be played close to the vest, and I think points will be hard to come by in this divisional showdown.
The Cowboys have injuries on offense that have slowed them down on that side of the ball. Both starting tackles in Tyron Smith and La’el Collins have been out with injuries and are questionable to return this week. Randall Cobb is battling multiple injuries, and star receiver Amari Cooper left last week’s games against the Jets with a quad injury. Both are questionable to play this week.
The Eagles get some good news on the injury front defensively as they are expected to get a couple cornerbacks back from injury. Their secondary has been their weakness, but they should have it more fortified this week with the return of those two players. But the offense has some injury issues too with LT Jason Peters, WR DeSean Jackson and RB Darren Sproles are questionable this week.
The Cowboys are a team that like to establish the run, but they haven’t been doing that in recent weeks. Look for them to try and get back to that this week because letting Dak Prescott throw the ball 44 times against Green Bay and 40 times against the Jets did not work. But the Eagles have the second-best run defense in the NFL, giving up just 72.8 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry.
Based on the series history, this total has been set too high. The Eagles and Cowboys have combined for 47 or fewer points at the end of regulation in each of their last six meetings. They have averaged just 38.5 combined points per game at the end of regulation in those six games, which is 10.5 points less than this posted total of 49. There is some serious value on this UNDER Sunday night.
Philadelphia is 8-1 UNDER vs. poor passing defenses that allow 235 or more passing yards per game over the last two seasons. The Eagles are 7-0 UNDER after allowing 6.5 or more yards per play in their previous game over the last two years. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.
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1 Dimer on Bears -3½ -105
FREE PLAY on Bears -3½ -105
MIKE LUNDIN'S RAVENS @ SEAHAWKS FREE PICK
The Seattle Seahawks are 5-1 on the season, but all but a blowout win at Arizona were one-score games and one could certainly make an argument that they've had Lady Luck on their side in most contests.
The Ravens lead the NFL in total offense at 450.7 yards per game and they rank second in scoring with 30.7 points per game. Seattle just gave up 406 total yards to Cleveland and Baker Mayfield, so I have no doubt that Lamar Jackson and the rest of the Ravens can move the ball quite freely against this Seahawks defense.
Ravens are 19-7-4 ATS in their last 30 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Seahawks are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
I feel the Ravens are undervalued at this point after failing to cover the spread in five straight games, and I like the visitors to keep it close and maybe even record an outright upset here at Seattle Sunday afternoon.
Free pick on Baltimore Ravens.
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R&R Totals FREE NFL Over-Under Sunday 10-20-19
UNDER 37 1/2 New Orleans/Chicago
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