Dave’s Tuesday Free Play:
1* on Toronto Blue Jays +177
The Key: I really like the price we are getting on the Toronto Blue Jays in Game 1 of this series against the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays earned the No. 1 seed in the American League, but they are very beatable. And the Blue Jays went 6-2 over their final 8 games and scored 4 runs or more in 7 of them. Matt Shoemaker has never lost to the Rays, going 4-0 with a 2.56 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 7 lifetime starts against them. Blake Snell is 4-2 with a 3.24 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 11 starts for the Rays this year. He’s good, but he should not be nearly a -200 favorite against Shoemaker and the Blue Jays. Take Toronto.
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1* Free Pick on Náutico +419
1* Free Pick on Colts -2½ -110
All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.
Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take Philadelphia Eagles +6.5 over San Francisco 49ers (8:20p.m., Sunday, October 4 NBC) The Eagles are a mess at the moment but they are not as banged up as the 49ers and thus I think they will be able to keep this game close on Sunday night. San Francisco comes home this week after back-to-back games at MetLife Stadium. Philadelphia is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games against San Francisco. The 49ers are 7-19 ATS (1 push) in their last 27 games as a home favorite. This line has jumped 3 points with how bad the Eagles have been playing but I feel now it is too high. Do not miss out on Doc’s Sports weekend football card. 4-0 on top play in college football this year and now is the time to sign-up with a veteran handicapper that has 49 years of experience.
Free Play on A's +117
PICK - New York Yankees -103
I like the value here with the Yankees in Game 1 of their playoff series against the Indians. Cleveland's Shane Bieber is going to win the AL Cy Young and maybe the MVP. Thing is, the Indians only have a slight edge, if any, with the Yankees sending out Gerrit Cole.
Note that Cole was much better than Bieber down the stretch. Cole had a 0.86 ERA and 0.619 WHIP in his last 3 starts, while Bieber had a 2.75 ERA and 0.915 WHIP.
The other big thing is how these pitchers have performed against the opposing side. Cole has a 2.50 ERA and 0.750 WHIP in 5 career starts against the Indians. While Bieber has only made two starts against New York, he's got a 8.30 ERA and 1.615 WHIP. Give me the Yankees -103!
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1* Free Play on Yankees -103
The last 5 matches for each team has been a loss or a draw. I think we see a 1-1 score in this soccer match that takes place in Brazil on Wednesday.
Be sure to check out Red Dog Sports as we are 58% (149-110). We won our last play on New England over Las Vegas.
932 NY Yankees at Cleveland
Totals this low are tough to stay under, but here we have the hottest pitcher in baseball and the pitching triple crown winner. Cole has a 1.00 ERA dealing to Higashioka, Bieber has been locked in all season. Both relief staffs are among the best with the Indians leading all of baseball. Stanton and Judge are back in the lineup, but not performing well as of yet. Let's expect this to be a low scoring intense contest with runs being extremely hard to come by.
Free Pick on A's
1* on Indians +103
Jack’s Free Pick Tuesday: Chicago White Sox -110
The Chicago White Sox (35-25) finished just one game behind the Oakland A’s (36-24), but they’re the No. 7 seed while the A’s are the No. 2 seed. The White Sox didn’t finish strong, but they don’t mind this matchup with the A’s in the first round.
Chicago purposely set things up so that ace Lucas Giolito would get to take the ball in Game 1, and we’ll back him here. Giolito was at his best on the road this season, going 2-0 with a 2.79 ERA and 1.034 WHIP in five starts away from home.
Lefty Jesus Lazardo is 3-2 with a 3.83 ERA and 1.216 WHIP in nine starts this season for the A’s. He only averages 5.5 innings per start and the A’s don’t have a bonafide ace like the White Sox do. This Game 1 should go to Chicago.
The White Sox are a perfect 14-0 against left-handed starters this season, outscoring opponents by 3.7 runs per game. Chicago is 23-8 in its last 31 games as a road favorite. The White Sox are 14-5 in Giolito’s last 19 road starts. Bet the White Sox Tuesday.
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$$ Tuesday Featured Free Play $$
The Tuesday MLB Comp play is on Oakland at 3:00 eastern. Oakland and Chicago finished within one game of each other but Oakland has played better vs winning teams going 5-2 of late compared to 1-6 like Chicago. The sox are 1-5 off a loss while Oakland is 6-1 in games where the total is 7 to 8.5. Giolito has been good allowing 8 runs in his last 17 innings. He will oppose bright young righty Luzardo who has electric stuff and is followed by the #1 bullpen Era in the American league. Oakland has won. 5 of the last 6 between the two teams. For the MLB Comp play. Take Oakland. Rob V
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Alabama is off a down year and it failed to cover in its first game. End of the Saban dynasty? Hardly. The Tide are loaded and ready to make amends. Sure, they failed to cover at Missouri. (They won 38-19, while laying -28.5.) However, the Tide were up 28-3 at halftime of that game. So, I feel it was more a matter of letting their foot off the gas. Saban noted as much, stating that: "The intensity dropped and we didn’t play well in the second half." That should work in our favor here, as Saban will be anxious to have his team keep the pedal to the metal the entire way. While the Aggies are no slouches, they're overmatched in this one. Consider laying the points.
My free play is on the NY Yankees at 7:00 ET.
The Cleveland Indians saw their three-year run as AL Central champs end last season when they won 93 games but the Twins won 101. Cleveland was in a three-way battle for the division's top spot all season but an EIGHT-game losing streak from Sep 8 thru Sep 16 threatened to end Cleveland's playoff hopes. However, the Indians completed their biggest comeback of the season in Sunday's season finale, overcoming a four-run deficit against Pittsburgh, to post their NINTH win in their last 11 games. Cleveland finished 35-25, tied with the Chicago White Sox, just ONE game back of Minnesota. The Indians won the tie-breaker over the White Sox, dropping Chicago to the No. 7 seed and giving Cleveland the No. 4 seed and the home-field advantage for their wild-card series.
So which team do the Indians draw in this 'dangerous' two-of-three series? It's none other than the NY Yankees, who were a clear favorite to win the AL pennant and represent the AL in the World Series. However, the Yankees have fought injuries all season and have had an up-and-down year. New York opened 16-6 but then lost SEVEN in a row. The Yankees ended that slide but through games played Sep 8, sat only 21-21. With the team's playoff hopes in danger, the Yankees answered with a season-high 10-game winning streak from Sep 9-19. However, the Yankees ended the regular season by losing SIX of their final eight contests.
The teams didn't meet in the regular season but this Game 1 pitching matchup is a CLASSIC! Gerrit Cole (7-3, 2.84 ERA) takes the mound for New York, while Cleveland counters with Shane Bieber (8-1, 1.63 ERA). You may have heard that Cole signed a nine-year, $324 million contract in December. The Yanks won his first five starts of 2020, lost his next four and then won his last three (more in a bit).
I can't imagine that Bieber won't win the AL's Cy Young Award this season. He became MLB's first pitching Triple Crown winner since Johan Santana in 2006 and the first Cleveland player to accomplish the feat since Hall of Famer Bob Feller in 1940. Bieber tied Chicago Cubs right-hander Yu Darvish for the most wins in the majors, while his ERA and strikeouts (122) were tops in baseball (his BAA was .167).
Maybe this isn't all that important. Bieber has an 8.31 ERA in two career starts against the Yankees and Cole is 3-1 with a 2.50 ERA in five career starts vs the Indians (teams are 3-2). What I will make note of is Cole's stellar postseason performance of 2019, when he posted a 4-1 record with a 1.72 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in five starts for Houston. What's more, his final three starts of the current season saw him go 3-0 while pitching seven innings in each one. He gave up a modest 10 hits over those 21 innings and two ERs for a 0.67 ERA and a 24-3 KW ratio. Bieber should get his Cy Young but Cole gets the better of him here.
My “Cutting Room Floor” are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my officials plays today for subscribers. The last play on my cut list for this afternoon is on the Chicago White Sox with the money-line versus the Oakland A’s listing both starting pitchers Lucas Giolito and Jesus Luzardo. Chicago (35-25) limps into the postseason having lost seven of their last eight games after their 10-8 loss to the Cubs on Sunday. But the White Sox have then won 19 of their last 27 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Chicago has also won 23 of their last 31 games as a road favorite. Oakland (36-24) has lost five of their last eight games going into the playoffs but their slide is a bigger concern since they are without their start third baseman Matt Chapman. The A’s have also lost 9 of their last 17 games without Chapman. Oakland has lost 4 of their last 5 playoff games at home — and they have lost 8 of their last 10 playoff games as an underdog. Take the White Sox with the money-line listing Luzardo and Giolito. Best of luck — Frank.
FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR TUESDAY, 9/29:
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1 Dimer on Yankees -103
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Toronto at Tampa Bay 5:00 ET
Rays over Blue Jays- This is the best team in baseball seeded No. 1 hosting the 8th seed in the AL and there is only one way for 'us' to go here. With Blake Snell (4-2, 3.24 ERA) on the hill the Rays will be prohibited favorites and I don't like laying this kind of price. Toronto actually has played 60 road gams this season as they were forced to call Buffalo 'home.' Blue Jays certainly have offensive fire-power and their Game 1 pitcher Matt Shoemaker (0-1, 4.71) who is 4-0 lifetime against Tampa Bay...it won't matter today. Get Chip's Triple-Play of MLB Post[-season winners and be careful with the RAYS!
Game 1 of the AL Wild Card series between the Jays and the Rays goes off at 5pm ET on Tuesday. This is a matchup between two solid offensive teams.
The Blue Jay’s have put up at least 5 runs in 6 of their last 8 games, and they are above average against left handed pitching.
Toronto’s starting pitcher Matt Shoemaker has struggled a bit this year. He is 0-1 with a 4.71 ERA. He was held out of his last regular-season start to keep him fresh for today. He won't go deep into the game, but the Jays will have a bullpen plan in place to pick up where he leaves off. That plan could include No. 1 prospect Nate Pearson.
Rays starter Blake Snell has pitched well this year. Snell allowed two runs over 7 2/3 innings in two starts against the Blue Jays this season. In 13 career starts against Toronto, Snell has posted a 2.81 ERA. This will be the first Game 1 start of Snell's career.
I think this total is set a little low for two teams that are capable of putting up runs.
Take the over.
Good Luck, Razor Ray.
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Free Total Annihilator On Blue Jays vs Rays over 7½ +100
Tuesday MLB Free play. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Cleveland at 7 pm et on Tuesday.
You could set this total at '5' and I would probably still give a long, hard look at the 'under'. We're talking about a matchup between two of the game's premier starting pitchers in Gerrit Cole of the Yankees and Shane Bieber of the Indians. There's little reason to expect anything but a pitching duel in Game 1 of this series on Tuesday night. Cole's final three regular season starts saw him give up just 10 hits and two earned runs while striking out 24 and walking three in 21 innings of work. All Bieber did was post a 1.63 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in 77 1/3 innings pitched this season. The first to three wins in this one. Take the under (8*).
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