The College Football comp play is on Auburn. Game 168 at 3:30 eastern. The Tigers are off the big win over LSU and now take on an over matched LA. Monroe squad that is 0-7 to the spread with rest as a dog in this range. . Home favorites off a home dog win and a prior home game are 15-2 to the spread since 1980 vs a team off a road loss. Auburn has won all 9 meetings in the series and sometimes in games like this big favorites win and take their foot off the gas pedal. Not today. Auburn all day. On Saturday the strongest card of the College season thus far is up and led by the American Athletic Conference Game of the year. We are ranked #1 in all sports overall on several sites. Jump on now and start the Month big. For the College Football free pick. Play on The Auburn Tigers. RV
I like what I'm getting with the 'dog in this matchup: A Wildcats defense that gives up the fewest yards and passing yards per game in the nation and an offense that is No. 1 in red zone percentage going 16-for-16 in scoring from inside the 20-yard line. That 100 percent red zone scoring extends to the final seven games of last season, too.
The Wildcats had a lot of youth last season. That youth is maturing this year. This is the game that shows Kansas State is a real Big 12 contender.
Bill Snyder and his Wildcats have the right ingredients to score an upset here - good coaching, the ability to keep the ball away from West Virginia quarterback Skyler Howard, not make mistakes and take full advantage of red zone opportunities to go with a strong defense that is particularly talented at linebacker.
Kansas State suffered a 26-13 opening-week road loss to seventh-ranked Stanford. There's no shame in that, but for some it warped the perception of Kansas State. The Wildcats give up 179 yards per game, best in the country, while surrendering just 33 points in three games. They pounded Florida Atlantic and Missouri State following the loss to Stanford.
West Virginia had issues with its special teams last week. The Mountaineers were life-and-death with BYU before winning, 35-32, last week nearly blowing a 35-19 lead. That game was played in Landover, Md. Kansas State had a much easier time rolling past Missouri State, 35-0, in a game that was called at halftime because of lightning.
So not only are the Wildcats the fresher team, but they have a proven track record under Snyder of being great in these types of games going 20-8-1 (71 percent) ATS versus above .500 opponents. By contrast, the Mountaineers are 0-6 ATS the past six times they've faced a foe with a winning record.
Big 10 Underdog Pointspread Winner Saturday
Courtesy of Tony George
Minnesota @ Penn State (-3)
Penn State is still licking their wounds after an absolute throttling at Michigan last week where Jim Harbaugh never called off the dogs against an injury riddled Lions defense. I exposed this mis-match with a premium play laying 18.5 points and Michigan which was a no sweat winner for anyone who was willing to lay the points and realize Penn State is not at 100% on the defensive side of the ball.
On the other side of the ball for Penn State is an offensive line that is not in sync, and they yielded 6 sacks last week and the offense was woeful to say the least. This is not good news as a veteran and well coached Golden Gopher teams heads to Happy valley this week with a very formidable run game where they are out rushing opponents by 109 years per game, and a capable QB in Leidner who is a dual threat through the air on the ground. It is troubling that Penn State is without all 3 starting LB's and allowed 365 yards rushing last week that plays right into Minnesota's strength.
Minnesota is undefeated to date and head into this game as statement game for them with a signature win on the road against a conference opponent, and Penn State is 0-6 against the Las Vegas Line their last 6 conference games. I cannot count on Penn State to rally here with a depleted defense in search of some bodies to stop a solid run unit and a Gopher team who also has a capable QB who can utilize play action passing with success as Penn State loads up to stop the run.
I have no issues with taking points on the road with Minnesota here who should clearly take advantage of Penn States issues on defense and the fact they are a cover machine on the road at 9-3 against the line their last 12 road games.
Minnesota 24 Penn State 20 - Take Minnesota +3
Tony George and his wares this weekend - a 4-Pack of Winners plus my weekly Hidden gem. CFB at 66% YTD! Also tune in the Tony George Show on SB Nation Radio and Sirius 93 on Sunday mornings 9-11 AM EST for the breakdown and Las Vegas Twist on this Sunday's NFL Games.
WHITE HOT Ben Burns closed out Sept w/ a PERFECT 5-0 FRIDAY SWEEP. That brings him to a MASTERFUL 24-8 the L8 days. That includes a SICK 7-1 RECORD on the college gridiron. Ben is also 10-4 his L14 NFL, a SUPERB 66-38 ATS his L104. Top-Rated NFL? 52-26 ATS! Want more? Totals on a PERFECT 9-0 RUN & top-tated football was a PERFECT 4-0 last Saturday!
The LSU offense has under-achieved thus far. Thats led to an 0-4 ATS record and was among the reasons that Les Miles (and offensive coordinator Cam Cameron) just got fired. The struggling offense has also led to an 4-0 "under" mark through four games. With Ed Orgeron taking over on an interim basis and Missouri coming to town, that "under" streak should have an excellent shot at coming to an end on Saturday.
Orgeron had this to say: "...we're going to spread the ball around a little bit, do some different things, change the style of play. There's a lot of things on offense we've done well running the football. We want to have a different passing game. We want to be more creative, find ways for the quarterback to get the ball down the field throwing it."
While the competition wasn't admittedly pretty weak, Missouri just scored 79 points last week. It was the second time in three games that Missouri topped the 60-point mark. Missouri is averaging 569.5 yard per game on the season. While the number has climbed a little from its opener, I still believe its a little too low. Take a look at the Over.
With Thursday and Friday's winners, Ben Burns is now an EPIC 58-35 ATS w/ his 2016 football. That includes a 7-1 record with his L8 CFB and a 10-4 mark his L14 NFL. Going back further finds him at an 116-76 ATS, a SICK 60.4% with his L189 on the gridiron, all against totally unbiased lines. If this "ain't your first rodeo," you know how AWESOME those numbers are. Burns has DOMINATED the month of October throughout his career & WON HUGE each of the past three years. He was a PERFECT 5-0 on Friday and he's an AWESOME 24-8 the past eight days. His totals are a PERFECT 9-0 the last nine. Jump on board and ride the wave.
10* Free MLB Pick (Twins +105)
I like the value we are catching with the Twins as a small road dog in Saturday's meaningless game between the Twins and White Sox. Minnesota's Hector Santiago is coming off a couple of average starts, but has been throwing much better down the stretch. He been locked in on the road this season, posting a 3.65 ERA in 15 starts. What I really like is how well Santiago has thrown against Chicago. He's faced the White Sox 3 times this season and all 3 times he posted a quality start, twice throwing 7 shutout innings. He also allowed just 11 hits with 23 strikeouts in his 20 innings against them. Chicago will counter with James Shields who has been all over the place this season, with most of it being bad. He's 6-18 with a 5.82 ERA and 1.620 WHIP in 32 starts. In his last 11 starts, he's giving up 4 runs or more 7 times and 6 of those he allowed 5 or more. Give me the Twins +105!
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This line opened +33.5 and sharp money quickly dropped it a point early in the week. Auburn defeated LSU last Saturday and are now in a major non-conference flat spot this week. The Tigers go from being a 3-point home underdog last week to a huge home favorite this week, plus Auburn has a major look-ahead game on deck at Mississippi State next week.
Auburn is not an explosive offensive team as they have scored 18 points or less in three of their four games this season. UL Monroe is only 1-2 SU, but they are 3-0 ATS as they've been competitive. The Warhawks also have the advantage of a bye week entering this game with extra time to rest and prepare as a big underdog. UL Monroe has averaged 6.0 yards per play (versus opponents that allow just 5.9 yppl), while the Warhawks defense has permitted only 5.8 yards per play (versus opponents that average 6.1 yppl).
San Jose St. heads to New Mexico following a bad loss at Iowa St. last week. The Spartans are 1-3 on the season including a 0-2 record on the road where they have lost by 35 and 3 points. They played without senior quarterback Kenny Potter last week and the duel threat is the best player on the offense and the bad news for them is that he has been downgraded to doubtful for this week. New Mexico opened the season with a big win over South Dakota but has since lost two straight games. However, those were on the road so heading home should get the Lobos back on track. Even though they are just 1-2, the Lobos have won the yardage battle in all three games including their strength, the rushing game. New Mexico averages 314 ypg on 6.3 ypc and this has been the strength of this team for years and Saturday they catch a great matchup. San Jose St. has been outrushed in all three games against FBS opposition and by an average of 135.7 ypg. This line has risen a pretty big amount but it was a bad opening line based on the status of Potter who was still questionable early in the week. San Jose St. has been horrid in this role as they are 2-14 ATS in their last 16 games as underdogs. New Mexico meanwhile is coming off its bye week which comes at an ideal time after having to travel to the east coast in its last game. The Lobos are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games after a bye week while going 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up loss. 10* (212) New Mexico Lobos
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I'm taking the points with Kansas State on Saturday. We had the Mountaineers last week and watched them fail to put away a BYU team that was ready to fold the tent. WVU made late-game mistakes, including a major unforced miscue inside the Cougar 10-yard line in a spot that would have likely wrapped-up the cover. But the Mountaineers have been known to make their share of mistakes, while Bill Snyder-coached teams rarely beat themselves. K-State is 16-for-16 in the redzone this season and brings the better stop-unit to the battle, ranked 7th against the run, and #1 in pass defense and total yards allowed per game. The Wildcats have already traveled to Stanford where they were within six points at 19-13 with less than three minutes to go in the game until a late, Christian McCaffrey 41-yard TD run. Until then, K-State had held Stanford to 231 yards of total offense in 57+ minutes of action. The Wildcats enter on a 20-8-1 ATS record against teams with a winning record, while the Mountaineers have dropped six in a row ATS against teams with a winning record. We'll back Kansas State as they aim for their 5th straight win & cover over West Virginia. Kansas State plus the points on Saturday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
I like the draw when these two play at 10am on Saturday. The total is set at 2 so they are expecting a low score. I think it ends 1-1.
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Western Michigan vs. Central Michigan Over 58
The battle of Michigans out of the MAC takes place Saturday as the Broncos and Chippewas meet. The total here has a lot of value on the Over. Both offenses rank in the top 40 as they averaged around the 470 yardage mark per game.
With how successful the offenses have been, scoring hasn't been an issue. Western Michigan has averaged 44 points per game while the Chips have averaged 40.
Some trends to note. Over is 27-11-1 in Broncos last 39 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
These teams played to a 41-39 game last season and have always been a part of shootouts when it comes to head to head. Look for this one to be a similar game here, as both offenses can strike and strike quickly.
Back the Over.
Good Luck, Razor Ray.
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1* Free Play Carolina Panthers.
Setting the scene: Carolina went to the Super Bowl last season, but has gotten out to a poor start so far in 2016/17, coming into Week 3 sitting at 1-2. Atlanta returns home after two straight road victories, most recently pulling away for the 45-32 win at New Orleans on Monday night. We think the “hungry” visitors are the correct call in this matchup.
The Panthers: It’s been a tough start to the year for Carolina. But with three straight divisional contests, starting with Atlanta, then Tampa Bay at home next week, followed by a game at New Orleans before their “bye,” we’re expecting the Panthers and to risk life and limb today. Also note that Carolina is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a road fav of three points or less and interestingly, 6-2 ATS in its last eight games played in the month of October.
The Falcons: They look primed for a letdown here after their big win over the Saints on national television. And with two tough road games on deck, including at Denver and Seattle, it’s not too hard to imagine the home side getting caught “looking ahead” to that difficult part of its schedule.
The bottom line: Also note that Atlanta is a poor 2-9 ATS in its last 11 following a divsional contest and 0-6 ATS off a win against a division rival. Consider a second look at the PANTHERS in Week 4.
Play - Virginia.
Edges - Cavaliers: Bronco Mendenhall 16-4 ATS in games in which his team sports a losing record, including 8-1 ATS as a dog in those games. Blue Devils: David Cutcliffe 9-18-1 ATS as a conference home favorite, including 0-5 ATS versus .250 or less opponents. With the Devils off a monster upset win over Notre Dame as 24-point dogs last week, and teams who upset the Fighting Irish just 10-23-3 ATS as favorites in their next game, we recommend a 1* play on Virginia. Thank you and good luck as always.
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Free Pick - Baylor/Iowa State under
3 HUGE plays in college football go Saturday:
~ Top-Informational Play
~ Personal Best Top-Play
~Personal Best Top-Play Total
Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Florida State -10.5
I’m going with the Seminoles -10.5 as my free pick in this game against UNC as I think they will continue the momentum they built up last week. After all, they have to impress the rest of the way if they want to get back in the four-team playoff conversation.
Impress they did last week as they rolled a very good South Florida team 55-35 on the road. They scored 38 straight points during one stretch, and this game wasn’t even as close as the final score. The Seminoles outgained the Bulls by 197 total yards in the game.
The key was getting Dalvin Cook and the running game going. The Seminoles racked up 647 total yards of offense, 478 of which came on the ground. Cook had 267 yards and two touchdowns, while Jacques Patrick added 124 yards and a score. Look for the Seminoles to stick with the run this week against one of the worst teams against the run in college football.
UNC gave up 240 rushing yards per game and 5.2 per carry in 2014 and 247 yards per game and 5.1 per carry in 2015. It hasn’t been much better against the run this season, allowing 240 rushing yards per game and 5.0 per carry thus far in 2016.
The Tar Heels haven’t proven they can stop the run in any game this season. They gave up 289 yards to Georgia, 182 to Illinois, 209 to woeful James Madison, and 281 to Pittsburgh last week. Their defense is the reason I give them no shot of being competitive against the Seminoles this week.
UNC was very fortunate to beat Pitt last week at home as well. It trailed 36-23 with less than six minutes remaining before scoring two touchdowns, including the game-winner with only two seconds left to win 37-36 as 7.5-point favorites. It was another poor performance for a Tar Heels' defense that is allowing 30.0 points per game this season.
Plays against any team (N CAROLINA) – after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game against opponent after gaining 6.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 51-23 (68.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.
Jimbo Fisher is 15-4 ATS after having won two of his last three games as the coach of Florida State. North Carolina is 9-30 ATS in its last 39 games after scoring 31 points or more in two straight games. The Seminoles are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games. Bet Florida State Saturday.
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Free Play from Doc’s Sports. #200 Take Indiana Hoosiers over Michigan State Spartans (Saturday 8 pm BTN) Most experts believed that this would be a rebuilding year for Michigan State and in two months that will be evident to all. They had fool’s gold beating Notre Dame two weeks ago but came crashing down in a big way last Saturday at home against Wisconsin. As we also observed that win over Notre Dame is not that impressive since the Irish have already lost three times this season. Indiana is coming off a disappointing loss to Wake Forest last week but expect them to bounce back in a big way this Saturday since this is the opening of Big 10 Conference play. Do not miss out on Doc’s Sports weekend football card highlighted by our Mountain West Game of the Year. Doc’s Sports is a perfect 4-0 on Top Plays this season in College Football. Sign-up now and let 45 years of handicapping experience work for you.
Baylor despite of a summer of dealing with scandals has shown that the talent base on the field is still of a very high quality and must be respected, as was evident in a DD victory vs Oklahoma State last week. The Bears have won their first four games by an average of 28.5 points per game. Meanwhile, Iowa State despite of being perceived as much improved over last season, and off a win of their own last week, are still quite literally over matched in all the key aspects of this game. Baylor defense is allowing just 310.0 total yards per game this season ranking 22nd in FBS. Baylor secondary is allowing just 142.5 yards per game through the air this season, seventh best ranking in the FBS and should make Iowa State QB duo of Joel Lanning and Jacob Park afternoon a living nightmare.
Iowa State in their L/79 games against a top level team with a .750 win percentage or better like Baylor have seen their games decided by an average of 39.6 -18 score.
The last time Baylor visited Iowa State they took a 49-28 decision in 2014, and I am betting on a similar result this time around.
Projected score: Baylor 47 Iowa State 20
Play and lay it with Baylor
This is a Free 2-Team (7.5-point) Teaser W/USC+OVER.
The Trojans are 1-3, hosting the undefeated Arizona State Sun Devils, and to the untrained eye it might seem odd that USC is a double-digit favorite here. This game actually reminds me of last season, when a 3-3 USC squad was a home favorite to the then #3 ranked Utah Utes who were 6-0 at the time.
The Trojans went on to win that game by a score of 42-24, and went on to win four of their next five games, punching a ticket to the PAC12 Championship game versus Stanford. You can bet that Trojans coach Clay Helton will remind his team of that heading into this weekend's game.
Arizona State has looked terrible on defense, especially last week allowing Cal to gain a total of 637 yards. They managed to come back from a double-digit deficit by scoring 31 points in the fourth quarter to remain undefeated.
The Trojans can take a lot of positives from last Friday's loss at Utah. Freshman quarterback Sam Darnold threw for 253 yards on 18-of-26 passing, and ran for 41 yards and a TD. He looked pretty solid in his first start on the road against one of the top defenses in the conference.
Arizona State has failed to cover in seven of it's last nine road games, and the over is 6-1 in it's last seven overall.
Wisconsin +10.5 1.1% Free Play
I looked back I am 15-2-1 ATS backing Wisconsin over my 8 year career!
I like this play with the Badgers as they got a relaxing win over Michigan State last week that nobody is taking seriously considering the way Notre Dame looked. Wisconsin is a solid team all around and this game is going to come down to whether or not Michigan can score through the air. Wisconsin is super solid defending the run having only allowed 1 rushing TD and they have kept all 4 opponents under their season average for rushing yards per carry. Meanwhile Michigan has been pretty inconsistent running the ball which raises some red flags for me. Michigan vs. Colorado rushed for just 4.10 ypc while Colorado has allowed 4.28 on the season. Michigan vs. UCF, Wolverines averaged just 2.90 ypc and UCF is allowing 3.88 on the season. Hawaii game was a little different as they rushed for 7.85 and Hawaii is allowing 6.36 so they are pretty bad. Hawaii had a dreadful travel spot playing in Sydney, Australia, back to Hawaii (30 hours of travel time), and then another 30 hours of travel time to Michigan all in an 8 day span. Penn State is awful this year and we saw it against Pitt when the Panthers ran all over Michigan. My point is I don’t think Michigan’s rushing offense is top 25 and you can bet Wisconsin’s run defense is in the top 25 having proven themselves vs. LSU and Michigan State.
When Michigan can’t run the ball they struggle. There were 3 games when they did not have a rushing TD a year ago and they went 1-2. Their lone win against Indiana they did not cover the spread, and when you look at their game against Michigan State they averaged 1.88 ypc and lost as well. Wisconsin does not give up the big play, and I can’t rely on Wilton Speight to score TD’s in the red zone which is what will have to happen in this one for them to cover 10.5 points. Wisconsin has only allowed 2 passing TD’s and they have 6 interceptions.
This is going to be a very good game with two of the top 30 teams in yards per play allowed and plays per game allowed. This game should be shortened quite a bit and I’m getting 10.5 points with a very low total of 44.5 which is intriguing. If Wisconsin was not in a bad spot following Michigan State and with Ohio State on deck I would absolutely make this a more confident play, but at the end of the day I am still very confident. I really liked what I saw from QB Alex Hornibrook on the road last week against the Spartans. This kid is very calm cool and collected. He throws an accurate ball and has poise. I just do not really see a lot that separates these two teams at this point and Michigan typically carries an inflated number because of their brand.
**ON TAP THIS WEEKEND**
Teaser of the Week - 24-5 ATS Run since 2014 Season!
College Football MAX Rating Play - 63% ATS for career - 79-47 ATS!
#NFL Free Pick from Mike Lundin
The New York Jets enter the game with a 1-2 record while averaging 20.7 points per game. They did however manage just a field goal and turned the ball over eight times(!) in last week's 24-3 loss at Kansas City. Ryan Fitzpatrick threw six interceptions and he has seven INTs on the season, considerably more than his three touchdown passes.
The Seahawks are 2-1 with both wins coming at home. They struggled big time in a 9-3 loss at LA in Week 2 but bounced back with a 37-18 rout against the Niners last week where they held SF to 254 total yardage and 12 first downs. We can note that the under is 4-0 in Seahawks last four games following a straight up win of more than 14 points and 12-4 in their last 16 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game (SF had 119 passing yards last game).
Both teams are coming into this contest banged up on the offensive side of the ball. Seattle's star QB Russell Wilson is battling an ankle injury and suffered a MCL sprain on top of that in the last game. New York meanwhile has issues with its receiving corps as Eric Decker (who leads the team with 194 yards receiving) might sit out with a shoulder injury and Brandon Marshall has been impeded with a knee sprain. It will be tough for Fitzpatrick to bounce back from the worst performance of his career under those circumstances.
Yes, the under is the "square bet" and we've seen the line for the total drop a bit from the opener, but I still think there's value betting on this contest to go under the total.
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Very popular pick and for a good reason. The Bobcats are the play here but I recommend only a small free pick wager while you take advantage of a VERY HOT CAPPER in ARI ATARI. 11-3 hot streak. 57-38 NCAAF record.
Ari Atari is your College Football guy. Trust in the numbers and you'll be rewarded.
NCAAF FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS ($29)
Oklahoma vs. TCU ($19)
2 Overs (Tally Up!) ($29)
Michigan State Vs. Indiana ($19)
NCAAF 5-PACK ALL DAY WINNERS (39.95)
South Florida was a 1 point home dog last year and are now a 5.5 point road favorite which gives us immediate line value. Cincy was a 10.5 point home favorite in 2014 and a 14 point home favorite in 2012. I don’t think this line swing is warranted as the Bills defense is regressing quickly as they have gotten outgained by 95 and 197 yards the last two weeks. South Florida is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 meetings and the home team is 4-0 ATS the last 4 meetings. For Houston only to lay 7.5 @ Cincy and USF laying 2 points fewer seems like a overcorrection as Cincy is still a talented team with Tuberville guiding the ship. I wish the quarterback situation was clearer currently and I would be upgrading this pick to premium status. I still might look to play Cincinnati big Saturday night. Right now the line is at +5 which is not a football number so I am going to wait patiently until before game time and see where this line settles as we might be able to get a +6 or +6.5. The Bearcats are definitely worth a second look Saturday night (1* Cincinnati)
Don't miss Brandon's NCAAF HIGH SCORING GAME of the WEEK Saturday that comes in the SEC conference which is his specialty. Brandon's 10* NFL GAME of the WEEK is also available as he says this one has 'BLOWOUT' written all over it!
*3 Star CFB Free Pick* The Washington State Cougars are coming off a bye week. Mike Leach has been really upset with his teams play so far this year, and I believe they are capable of far more than they have shown thus far. The Cougars have covered six straight contests against Oregon, so they matchup well with the Ducks.
Oregon's Dakota Prukop isn't a bad fit for this offense, but he isn't the perfect pit that the Ducks have had in the past. Speaking of bad fits, Oregon's defense has been really bad under Brady Hoke so far this year. Oregon is sending a lot of blitzes and they are leaving themselves susceptible to the quick passing game. Why is that important? Because that is exactly what Washington State does on a consistent basis.
Luke Falk is a great fit for the Air Raid offense, and I expect huge numbers from him in this game. Both teams will score a lot here, but I like Washington State's chances. The public is still backing Oregon, but I think Oregon has slipped a couple notches from where they were a couple years ago.
Washington State has a really good home field advantage. Take Washington State plus the points.
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Free Pick on Northwestern/Iowa UNDER
Offense should be hard to come by for both of these teams on Saturday. Iowa's offense has been in a funk the last two weeks, only scoring 21 at home against FCS foe North Dakota State and then just 14 last week against a Rutgers team that allowed 48 to Washington and 38 to New Mexico.
If you have watched Iowa, you know they are team that likes to grind out possessions by running it down their opponents throats and throwing only when they need to. They figure to have to rely on the run a little more with senior wide out Matt VandeBerg sidelined with a foot injury. VandeBerg leads Iowa with 19 receptions and 284 yards. The next best on the team is tight end George Kittle with 10 catches for 192 yards. No one else on the team is in double-digits in receptions or has more than 100 yards receiving.
I Northwestern allowed 310 rushing yards last week to Nebraska, but a good chunk of those (132) came from quarterback Tommy Armstrong. While Iowa quarterback, C.J. Beathard is mobile, he's only got 3 rushing yards on the season. Even with all that success on the ground, the Cornhuskers still only managed 24 points. I think the Wildcats are more than capable of keeping this Iowa offense in check and making them eat up a lot of clock when they do put together a scoring drive.
On the flip side of this, Iowa's defense is the real deal. The Hawkeyes come in only giving up 13.5 ppg and just 365 ypg. They should have zero problem here against an anemic Northwestern offense that is scoring just 16.2 ppg. Wildcats have really struggled to run the ball and that's going to put them in a lot of 3rd and long situations which will make it tough on them to sustain drives. Keep in mind the last two years they have scored a combined 17 points in their two games against Iowa, both times finishing the game with fewer than 200 yards of total offense.
UNDER is 20-7 in Northwestern's last 27 following a double-digit loss at home, 10-4 in their last 14 after giving up 200 or more yards rushing and 22-9 in their last 31 against a team with a winning record. UNDER is also 34-18 in Iowa's last 52 games after allowing 7 points or less in the 1st half of 2 straight games. Take the UNDER!
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10/01 12:30 PM CF (161) WISCONSIN VS (162) MICHIGAN. Take: over
Reason: Your free play for Saturday, October 1, 2016 is in the Big 10 battle between Wisconsin and Michigan. A low total here with some powerful defenses, but the Wolverines have a a strong set of offensive weapons. They have the best wide receivers in the Big 10 and just dismantled a good Penn State defense with 324 yards rushing. Michigan is on a 12-0 run over the total, including 8-0 at home. The Wolerines also survived a scare against Colorado, erasing a 14-point deficit in 45-28 win. This is their fifth straight home game. Michigan is also 9-0 over the total vs. a team with a winning record. Play Wisconsin/Michigan Over the total.
Dave's Saturday Free Play:
1* on Penn State -2.5
The Key: James Franklin is in a must-win situation here for Penn State. He'll have his players ready when Minnesota visits Happy Valley on Saturday. Penn State would have been a much bigger favorite than -2.5 had this been the first game of the season. So I think there's some value here, especially with this being the first road game for Minnesota. I think Minnesota's 3-0 start is fools' gold. The wins have all come at home against Oregon State, Indiana State and Colorado State. And Minnesota failed to cover against both Oregon State and Colorado State, beating them both by only a touchdown. Penn State will easily be the best team that Minnesota has faced. Minnesota will be the third-best team Penn State has faced after losing on the road to both Pitt and Michigan. A blowout road loss to Michigan last week is why Penn State is only a 2.5-point favorite here, but Michigan is a national title contender. The Nittany Lions are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 home games after losing 2 of their last 3 games. The Golden Gophers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win. The Nittany Lions are 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Take Penn State.
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Chip's NCAA 3-Pack of Best Bet Winners
Chip Chirimbes the Las Vegas Hilton Handicapping Champion and 5-time College Handicapping Champion was 1-2 with his Top-3 last week including UCLA his 'Highest-Rated' BAD BEAT loss. This Saturday he is bouncing back with his Top-3 NCAA Best Bet winners. Receive his 'Highest-Rated' A-Play Megabucks winner between Tennessee and Georgia, his Pac-12 Power Play winner between Arizona State and Southern California and his Vegas High Roller TV Best Bet winner between Louisville and Clemson. Get it ALL NOW, only $99!
Chip's FREE NCAA FT Winner
Fresno State at Las Vegas Nevada 10:30 ET
Rebels (-) over Bulldogs- I love living in Las Vegas and watching the locals chase their tails when it comes to the UNLV football team. They opened a 13-point favorite over Idaho last week and they were bet up to over 17 and of course they lost outright. The Rebels have lost their quarterback Stanton to injury but the fact that he was the lowest rated QB in the nation can only help. Now, after losing to a FCS for they Rebels open double-digits over Fresno who blew a 31-0 lead to Tulsa last week. Lay it! Take UNLV!
Chip's NCAA 5-Pack Full-Slate Best Bet Winners
Chip Chirimbes the Las Vegas Hilton Handicapping Champion and 5-time College Handicapping Champion was 2-2-1 with his Top-5 Best Bets last week including UCLA his 'Highest-Rated' BAD BEAT loss. This Saturday he is bouncing back with his Top-5 Full Slate NCAA Best Bet winners at a discounted price. Receive his 'Highest-Rated' A-Play Megabucks winner between Tennessee and Georgia, Vegas High Roller TV Best Bet winner between Louisville and Clemson, his Pac-12 Power Play winner between Arizona State and Southern California, his Big Ten Money Game winner between Michigan State and Indiana and his Pac-12 Bail-Out Winner between Oregon and Washington State. Get it ALL NOW, only $149!