Braves/Diamondbacks MLB Free Pick (1-Unit)
Play On - Home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (ARIZONA) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season (NL), with a cold starting pitcher- ERA 7.50 or more over his last 3 starts. This system is 97-38 (72%) against the money line since 1997. BET THE DIAMONDBACKS -132!
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You have to go back to July 7 to find the last time southpaw Rich Hill threw more than five pitches in a big league game. Blisters have sidelined Hill until now when he makes his Dodgers debut.
It's not stretching things to believe Hill is going to be rusty. Perhaps even on a pitch count, which would put more pressure on an overworked Dodgers bullpen. Regardless, I'm not going to pass up taking this 'dog price with the Giants and Johnny Cueto.
The Giants and Cueto have been slumping since the All-Star break. Cueto broke out in his last start beating the Mets, 8-1, this past Friday giving up eight hits and no walks in seven innings. That was the 19th time in Cueto's past 25 starts San Francisco has won. The Giants also have won 11 of Cueto's last 13 road starts.
Now it's time for the Giants to get going. They had the best record at 57-33 entering All-Star break, but have gone 11-24 since then. We all know the Giants are a much better team than what they have shown lately.
There are many handicapping factors that point to the Giants winning today. They are:
Hill being priced a favorite in this division rivalry despite a huge randomness factor based on his more than a month of not pitching.
Cueto's outstanding track record, which includes the Giants going 3-0 the past three times he has been a road 'dog.
The Giants being 33-9 on the road and 19-7 in their last 26 games against a lefty starter.
Underrated Angel Pagan being back in the lineup from a groin strain. Pagan is riding a 19-game hitting streak. (Editor's note: In addition to this free selection, Stephen Nover has one of his strongest baseball plays of the month going today - his Wednesday Wipeout Winner.)
FREE PLAY on the over in this soccer match set for Thursday in the Europa League. I hope to see a 2-1 final score.
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Jack's Free Pick Wednesday: Detroit Tigers -103
The Detroit Tigers are right in the thick of the AL Wild Card race at 66-59 on the season. I like the value we are getting with them at nearly even money against the 49-76 Minnesota Twins in Game 2 of this series here Wednesday night.
Matt Boyd has held his own as a starter this season, going 4-2 with a 4.29 ERA and 1.238 WHIP in 12 starts. he has really turned it on of late, going 2-0 with a 2.00 ERA and 1.111 WHIP in his last three starts. Boyd is also 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA and 0.750 WHIP in two career starts against Minnesota.
It's clear that Boyd is the better starter in this one as he'll be opposed by Tyler Duffey, who is 8-9 with a 5.93 ERA and 1.451 WHIP in 21 starts this season. Duffey has been at his worst at home, going 4-4 with a 6.67 ERA and 1.517 WHIP in 11 home starts.
Detroit is 19-3 (+17.4 Units) against the money line after scoring 8 runs or more this season. The Tigers are 21-6 in their last 27 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Detroit is 4-0 in Boyd's last four starts. The Twins are 0-7 in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Tigers Wednesday.
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Jeff Allen's Free Play for Saturday, September 3rd is on the Ohio Bobcats
Ohio is loaded for Frank Solich who is now the the most successful active coach in the MAC. The Bobcats have not had a losing season since 2006 and are loaded this year and will compete for the conference championship. Texas State is off a disappointing year that forced Coach Fran into retirement and return just 10 starters. This figures to be a slow rebuild for the Bobcats and the schedule maker didn't do them any favors opening them vs. ground and pound Ohio on the road. Lay the points with a home team that generally takes care of business when it's supposed to.
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This game is being played on a neutral in Australia. I don’t think that this neutral field will benefit either team so I am going to exploit the head to head matchup here. Cal is a team that went 9-27 combined from 2012 to 2014 before winning 8 games last year, behind a QB (Goff) that got drafted in the 1st round of the NFL Draft. This is also a Cal team that has only been a favorite away from home 3 times in the last 4 years. Cal lost their top 6 receivers and 5 of their top 6 tacklers. While Cal will have a reliable QB in Davis Webb from Texas Tech, he doesn’t have a lot of talent around him and it will take time for Webb to get in sync with these new receivers. I will also note that Cal has a new offensive coordinator. While it’s still the ‘Air Raid’ offense, there are new schemes being installed and it will take time before the Bears are putting up 40+ points. With only 3 seniors starting on defense, I like Hawaii to score enough points to cover this spread.
Hawaii is 5-0 ATS in Week 1 the last five years and are undervalued in this spot. There's a new Head Coach for Hawaii and he used to play for the Rainbow Warriors. Nick Rolovich was the QB for Hawaii and will have former teammate Brian SMith as the offensive coordinator and associate head coach. I think these two guys are going to gel great and Hawaii can only get better as a team. Rolovich was the OC at Nevada the last 4 years. Rolovich came to Nevada after a wildly productive four-year run at Hawaii, where he directed one of the top passing offenses in the nation. He was the quarterbacks coach all four seasons and spent the last two years as the Warriors' offensive coordinator. In Rolovich’s first game with Nevada in 2012, Rolovich beat Cal, 31-24, as a 12 point road dog, so their is some ‘deja vu’ here and a great storyline.
Hawaii returns 9 players on offense (73 offensive line starts). Senior QB Woolsey should be able to lead the team on some scores against this soft Cal defense. While Hawaii’s weakness is their secondary, the Cal Bears passing game is not going to be up to full speed yet. I think Hawaii will be improved offensively from last year and Cal will struggle to score, especially touchdowns and the defense is not good enough to offset the offensive regression.
Special Teams: Senior utility kicker Sanchez was one of only five kickers nationally to handle all duties. As a field goal kicker, he converted 8-of-11 attempts, including two from 47 yards and a long of 50 to earn all-Mountain West Honorable Mention. So we have a quality FG kicker on our side here as well. While we are looking for touchdowns, all scores will help and this game should have it’s fair share of field goal opportunities. (1* Hawaii plus the points)
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This is a Free #NCAAF play on the Hawaii #Warriors.
The public loves Michigan this year, and it's easy to see why. The Wolverines completely turned things around winning 10 games last season, after going just 5-7 in 2014. While Jim Harbaugh's first year as Michigan's head coach has come with plenty of fan fair, I believe this team is way overrated. It's important to keep in mind that all 10 of last year's wins came against teams that finished the season unranked. They lost at Utah, at home to Michigan State, and they were blown out at Ohio State.
The Wolverines will host the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors in their season opener, and they are asked to cover an enormous number here. Despite the fact that they played their fair share of cupcakes last season, they didn't win any games by as much as 40 points. Hawaii was brutal last year, losing 10 of 13 games. Many of those losses were blowouts, but even against the likes of Ohio State and Wisconsin, the margin of defeat was less than 40 points.
They lost 38-0 at Ohio State in Week 2, and it's worth noting that Michigan didn't fair much better losing 42-13 when they traveled to Columbus. Hawaii has plenty of talent returning from last season, and this team might just be more competitive than it was a year ago.
The Warriors will get a chance to work out the kinks a week earlier when they play California in Australia. The Wolverines will not have that luxury, with a new quarterback under center in their first game of the season. Even if everything goes smoothly for Michigan, and they somehow manage to build a big early lead, expect Harbaugh to pull the starters which would likely allow Hawaii to get a back door cover.
The KC Chiefs have started this Preseason off at 0-2, but they're playing much better than their record indicates. They lost their opener to Seattle, 17-16, after allowing a "Hail Mary" TD on the last play of the game. They followed that with a road loss in Los Angeles, 21-20, despite out-gaining the Rams 382 offensive yards to 264 total yards! Chiefs HC Andy Reid knows that you MUST build a "winning culture" during the exhibition season if you want to win during the Regular season, which is why these Chiefs went 4-0 during the 2015 NFL-X, scoring 24 points or more in 3 of those 4 games. The Bears offensive line is terrible and they have no talent at the RB position after losing All-Pro RB Matt Forte in the off-season. Expect the Chiefs to shut down this Bear's offense and get their 1st victory of the season on Saturday.
10* Play on KC Chiefs
Free Pick on Tigers -
Detroit is showing great value here at basically a pick'em on the road against the Twins. The Tigers come into this game having won two straight behind an offensive explosion. Detroit has scored 18 runs on 24 hits in their last two games and several of the Tigers' hitters are hot at the moment. I look for that to continue here against the inconsistent Tyler Duffey. He's got a 5.93 ERA and 1.451 WHIP in 21 starts. He also owns an ugly 6.67 ERA in 11 home starts and was just rocked in his last outing for 5 runs in just 3 2/3 innings of work.
Tigers will counter with Matt Boyd, who is on a tear of late. Boyd has a sizzling 2.00 ERA and 1.111 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Detroit has won each of his last 4 starts and 6 of his last 7 overall. He in a great spot to keep it going, as the Twins are struggling at the plate right now, having scored just 9 runs in their last 5 games combined.
Minnesota is just 1-10 in his last 11 home games after 3 or more consecutive games against a division rival and 8-20 in their last 28 as a home dog of +100 to +125. Tigers are 19-3 in their last 22 after scoring 8 or more runs. Take Detroit!
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