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MLB  |  Apr 18, 2014
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cleveland Indians
8½ ov+101
  at  BMAKER
in 22h

Take: over the total.
Reason: Your free pick for Friday, April 18th, 2014, comes in baseball as the Toronto Blue Jays and the Indians meet in Cleveland. Cleveland is a small park, great for offenses, and Toronto comes to town with an offense ranked 13th in runs scored, 14th in slugging. The problem here for the defense is starter Drew Hutchison, who has walked 8 in 14+ innings while allowing 13 hits, poor ratios. Cleveland came into this series with a losing record and the over is 18-8 in Blue Jays last 26 vs. a team with a losing record and 23-9 over on the road against a team with a losing record. Cleveland's offense is good, loaded with veteran hitters who put the ball in play, 13th in baseball in runs scored, 9th in on base percentage. The over is 16-4-2 in the Indians last 22 vs. the American League Central. Starter Justin Masterson (5.87 ERA) has not been on his game, allowing 26 base runners in 15 innings. Masterson had a second consecutive rocky outing Saturday, allowing six runs (five earned) on seven hits and five walks against the White Sox. The over is 6-0 in the Indians last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter and the team is on an 8-3 run over the total. Play Toronto/Cleveland Over the total.     

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MLB  |  Apr 18, 2014
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets
New York Mets
  at  SPBOOK
in 22h

Friday MLB Free Play from Doc’s Sports Take #908 New York Mets over Atlanta Braves (7:10pm EST) All good things eventually come to an end, and in the case of Aaron Harang they will come crashing down hard. The 35-year old right-hander has turned in three outstanding starts since joining the Braves. He has a miniscule 0.96 ERA and 0.80 WHIP so far, but let’s put things in perspective before we get too excited. First off, Harang was 5-12 with a 5.40 ERA in pitcher-friendly Seattle last season. Yes it was an off year, but there have been warning signs of deterioration for years. So far in 2014, he has only pitched 18.2 innings. His BABIP (batting average on balls in play) in those starts is a ridiculously low .191, which isn’t even close to sustainable. His career BABIP is over 100 points higher at .303 over his 13 seasons of work. So needless to say, Harang is in for some major regression and the Mets could be the beneficiaries. New York is fifth in the NL in runs scored so far this season thanks to some timely hitting. Jon Niese gets the ball for the Mets and he’s in line for his best season yet at the age of 27. Niese has put together back-to-back strong seasons with ERAs at 3.40 and 3.71 in 2012 and 2013. So far in 2014 he’s looking good, especially in the control department. He’s only walked two batters in 13 innings of work while striking out nine. The Braves has been feast or famine at the plate this season, but the last two games were certainly the latter. They scored a combined one run over their last two games against the Phillies, so Niese could be catching them at the right time. Take the Mets to get the win here.