[1%] Free Play on Montana -7½
1* Free Sharp Play on Coyotes +161
1* NCAAF - Free Pick on Clemson Tigers -28
I got no problem laying the big number here with Clemson in the ACC Championship Game. It's crazy to think that there could be this big of a gap in a Power 5 conference, which might tempt some people to take the points. Not me. In fact, I think there's some value here with the Tigers at this price.
Clemson has to be the least hyped defending champ to finish the regular-season undefeated that I can remember. I think it's worked in the Tigers' favor, as it's allowed them to play with a chip on their shoulder. Last year's national championship was great, but Clemson is on a mission to keep winning and become the same kind of dynasty that Alabama has been for the last decade plus.
No disrespect to Virginia, but they got no shot of keeping this game close. The Cavaliers outscored their ACC opponents by a respectable 7.9 ppg and outgained them by 27.8 ypg. That's great an all, but Clemson was +35.7 ppg and +319.7 ypg.
Last year it was a similar story against Pitt in the ACC title game and the Tigers won that contest 42-10 as a 27-point favorite. The year before they rolled Miami 38-3 as a mere 10-point favorite.
Tigers are 15-5 ATS last 20 games played on a neutral field and a perfect 6-0 on a neutral site if the total is between 49.5 and 56. They are also 7-0 ATS last 7 road games when they come in having won 7 or more consecutive games and are winning in this spot by 33.7 ppg. Take Clemson!
The set-up: Two teams moving in opposite directions collide on Sunday afternoon and I believe those trends carry over again this weekend. Tennesse is now 7-5 after a hard-fought win over the Colts last week. The Raiders are now 6-6 after back-to-back losses, including getting routed by the Chiefs last time out. Oakland is having plenty of issues across the board, not just in one area. The Titans on the other hand made the difficult choice to bench longtime starting QB Marcus Mariota for Ryan Tannehill a couple of weeks ago, but the move has paid major dividends with the ex Miami QB being the difference in the "up tick" in play of late.
The pick: Note as well that the Titans are a perfect 3-0 ATS year off a road win against a division rival, while the Raiders are 0-3 ATS in their last three off a road loss vs. a division rival. The play on the field and the contrasting ATS stats listed above do indeed make Tennessee the correct call here in my opinion. But what about you?! Does Tannehill keep it rolling, or does Jon Gruden get the "ship righted" in Raider-Nation?!
1* FREE PLAY on Tennessee.
My 1* FREE PLAY is on the Baltimore Ravens.
The Ravens are 10-2 and the Bills are 9-3. The Patriots seem to be "dead in the water" right now, so to say this is a "big game" for these two teams would be an understatement. So far though every "great defense" which has faced the Ravens and Lamar Jackson this year has come up short and I do indeed think that'll again be the case this weekend. Josh Allen has admittedly looked a lot more comfortable in directing Buffalo's offense over the last month, but he now faces one of the hottest defenses in the entire league this week.
- Baltimore is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 on the road (including 4-1 ATS this season.)
- The Ravens are already 3-1 ATS this year following a home victory.
- Buffalo is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven following a road victory.
The verdict: Baltimore has won three of the last four matchups vs. Buffalo, including a 47-3 destruction last September. I'm not calling for a blowout of that proportion, but in my opinion everything does point to a comfortable Ravens cover on Sunday. Consider laying the points in this one!