Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-01-19 | Cubs v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | Top | 0-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on UNDER Cubs-Braves Between these two, the Over is off to a 5-1 start to the season. The lone Under in came in last night's 5-1 loss by the Braves in Philadelphia. Once again on ESPN, we should see Atlanta involved in a low scoring game. The Cubs were unable to overcome a disastrous start from Yu Darvish Sunday and lost 11-10 in Texas. Despite scoring 28 runs in the three games in Arlington, the Cubs still lost the series. But now they return to National League play, which still involves the pitchers coming up to bat and scoring should subside accordingly. This works both ways as not only should the Cubs see their own scoring decline here in Atlanta, the pitching should improve. Kyle Hendricks was very good in 2018 and finished with a 1.52 ERA and 0.85 WHIP his last seven starts. The Under was 22-10-1 in all of his starts last year. Four career appearances against Atlanta have yielded a 2.33 ERA. Sean Newcomb will be on the mound for the Braves, looking to lead his team to its first win of the young season. The bullpen was more of a problem for Atlanta in Philly than were the starters, so a strong outing from Newcomb would go a long way here. Newcomb was stronger in the first half last year, including a quality effort against these Cubs. The Under is 6-2-1 the last nine times Newcomb has started a series opener. Play UNDER Chicago-Atlanta AAA |
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04-01-19 | Mets v. Marlins UNDER 8 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER on NY Mets-Miami The Mets had a chance to sweep the Nationals yesterday, which would have been quite the statement to open the season. But a late rally ultimately fell short as they lost in walkoff fashion. Still, you have to like what you've seen from this club so far. Miami is going to struggle massively this season in a NL East where the other four teams are all thinking playoffs. That said, winning the last two games while holding the Rockies to just three runs is impressive. We look for this game to be low-scoring. These division foes ended last season with a three-game series against one another and the Mets scored a total of three runs. They also shut Miami out in two of the three games. One of those games was started by Steven Matz, who tossed six innings of three-hit ball. Matz posted a 1.53 ERA in three starts vs. Miami last season. Really, the only problem he had in a strong 2018 (3.97 ERA) was lack of run support. That's how he ended up with no wins in his final seven starts despite a 2.29 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. The Mets scored three runs or less 13 times for Matz last season. It's early, but the Marlins are batting just .216 so far. But starter Caleb Smith should keep them in this one as he had a 3.09 ERA in a couple of starts vs. NY last year. Play UNDER NY Mets-Miami AAA |
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03-31-19 | Bruins -200 v. Red Wings | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -200 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 6* play on BOSTON Despite them already being safely in the playoffs, don't expect Boston to take last night's 4-1 loss to Florida "lying down." This is because, among other reasons, the Bruins would also like to lock down home ice advantage for their upcoming 1st round series with Toronto. (They did catch a major break last night with Toronto losing at Ottawa). Yesterday's loss was a rarity as it snapped the B's 12-game win streak at home and was the first time all season they lost an afternoon game on regulation (7-0-1 previously). But they are still 20-5-4 their last 29 games overall. The next three are all on the road and though Detroit has won four in a row overall and two straight over the Bruins, this one shapes up to be the easiest. One positive for the road team is they are 8-1 this season following a game where they were held to 1 goal or less. The Red Wings last game was a 4-0 win over New Jersey, just their 2nd shutout of the season. The previous won came back on February 2nd against another bad team (Ottawa) and the Wings promptly followed that up by losing their next game (at home). History repeats itself here. Play on BOSTON AAA |
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03-31-19 | Michigan State v. Duke UNDER 150.5 | Top | 68-67 | Win | 100 | 24 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER Michigan State-Duke These two national powers approach their Elite 8 matchup with serious injury concerns. For Duke, Cam Reddish was a late scratch Friday night vs. Va Tech. For a second straight game, the Blue Devils had to hold on as a last second shot by their opponent (that would have been a game-winner) rolled off the rim. Michigan State lost Nick Ward to a hand injury late in their Sweet 16 victory over LSU. But he said he will play here. While the Spartans scored 80 against LSU, they actually shot better the game before against Minnesota. We don't look for them to shoot that well or score as many in this game. Duke, like Michigan State, is a top 10 team in defensive efficiency. Both teams are holding their opponents to a field goal percentage below 40.0 for the season. The Blue Devils are not a great three-point shooting team, but have been better than usual the last two games. Don't look for that trend to continue, however. For the year, they are at just 27.1% from behind the arc away from Cameron. Take Tre Jones going 5 for 7 out of the equation and the rest of the Blue Devils shot just 1 of 13 on three-pointers against Va Tech. The team shot 55% overall, but that won't be repeated here. Good news for Duke is they hold their opponents to under 30% from three-point range. Low-scoring game between the top two seeds in the East Region. Play UNDER Michigan State-Duke AAA |
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03-31-19 | Giants v. Padres -151 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on SAN DIEGO The Padres lost 3-2 yesterday to the Giants. All five of the game's runs were scored in the sixth inning. But before that San Francisco had scored just one run in 23 innings and they didn't score again the rest of the game. So it would seen unrealistic for them to do much at the plate as this four-game series wraps up Sunday at Petco Park. The San Diego starting rotation is young, but loaded with talent and we've seen them keep the San Fran lineup in total check so far. Today it's Chris Paddack's turn as the 23-year old makes his first major league start. Paddack is one of the top prospects in the Padres organization and had himself an impressive Spring. His strikeout to walk rate is exactly what you want to see from a young starter. On the other hand, the Giants are going with an over the hill starter in Jeff Samardzija, who had a terrible 2018. Samardzija went 1-5 in 10 starts last season with a career worst 6.50 ERA. Bothered by shoulder issues, we're not sure how much he has left in the tank and the team is just 2-12 his last 14 starts overall. The Padres should bounce back from their first loss of the season rather easily here. Play on SAN DIEGO AAA |
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03-31-19 | Auburn v. Kentucky UNDER 141.5 | Top | 77-71 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 16 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on UNDER Auburn-Kentucky Well, there will be one SEC team in the Final Four. We just don't know if it'll be Auburn or Kentucky. This all-SEC Elite 8 matchup pits the 5th seeded Tigers against the 2nd seeded Wildcats and is the third time they'll have met this season. Kentucky won the first two, 82-80 on the road and 80-53 on the road. Obviously, the major difference between the two games was how much worse Auburn was on offense in Lexington. This game is being played at a neutral site and considering how strong the Tigers have looked offensively in this Tournament, you'd think that this rubber match is inclined to more closely resemble the first regular season meeting. But Kentucky is playing lock down defense. As a result 9 of its last 11 games have stayed Under. And Auburn's offense has suffered a major blow with third leading scorer Chuma Okeke out with a knee injury. Okeke was leading the team with 20 points against North Carolina when the injury was suffered. As for the UK offense, they don't make that many threes and have scored only 62 points each of the last two games. The Under is 13-3 in the Wildcats last 16 NCAA Tournament games plus 12-3 the last 15 times they've taken on Auburn. Play UNDER Auburn-Kentucky AAA |
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03-30-19 | Purdue v. Virginia -4 | Top | 75-80 | Win | 100 | 21 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on VIRGINIA Virginia is our top side of the entire tournament. This is a team that continues to get less respect than it deserves. It's easy to understand why. Last year saw them suffer the indignity of being the first #1 seed to ever lose to a #16 seed. But that embarrassment aside, the Cavaliers have arguably been the best team in College Basketball the last two years. This tournament has seen them play the same kind of defense we saw in the regular season. The regular season saw UVA hold its opponents to the fewest number of points per game in the country. They allow just 54.8 PPG for the year and just held both Oklahoma and Oregon under that number. Purdue is 3-0 ATS in the tournament and made a record 40 three-pointers through three games. Expect that hot shooting to come to an end Saturday. The Boilermakers shooting in the last two games in particular (Villanova, Tennessee) was quite other-worldly. But Virginia isn't just a step up in class in terms of the kind of defense they'll face, it's a massive step up from both Villanova and Tennessee. The fact Purdue won their last game by 5 and Virginia by only 4 is a little misleading. The Boilers did lead by as much as 18 points, but also needed OT to get Tennessee. Virginia led Oregon virtually wire to wire and didn't allow a field goal over the final 5:43. Purdue is 0-5-1 ATS after allowing 90 or more points the last game. Virginia is 39-19-1 ATS following a straight up win. Play on VIRGINIA AAA |
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03-30-19 | Blazers v. Pistons -5 | Top | 90-99 | Win | 100 | 19 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on DETROIT Portland made us look a little foolish last night by beating Atlanta by 20 points. We totally overestimated the Hawks in that situation, which with the benefit of hindsight seems like a bad idea all around. But after beating Chicago and Atlanta, the Blazers now step up to face Detroit. Unlike those last two Portland opponents, the Pistons are trying to make the playoffs. They're 6th in the East, but the margin for error is still slim. Portland finds itself playing its third road game in four days, without Jusuf Nurkic. Again, Nurkic's absence turned out not to be a big deal against the Bulls and Hawks. But Detroit will make Portland pay. The Pistons have covered five straight and just beat Orlando by 17 in an impressive win two nights ago. The Blazers are 1-6 SU/ATS in the second of back to back road games this year. Not only does Portland not have Nurkic the rest of the season, C.J. McCollum is out of the lineup as well. This team is severely shorthanded, not rested and on the road. That's a lousy combination when facing a better than average opponent. Detroit is 24-13 in home games where they see a dramatic increase on the offensive end. Play on DETROIT AAA |
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03-30-19 | Braves v. Phillies OVER 9 | Top | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Braves-Phillies With the addition of Bryce Harper making expectations sky high, the Phillies figure to be a pretty "public" team in 2019. Even with Harper hitless, they still managed to crush the Braves Opening Day, winning 10-4. Him being intentionally walked did set up the pivotal at-bat of the game, that being a Rhys Hoskins' grand slam. Atlanta's starting rotation is in shambles to start the season with both Mike Foltynewicz and Kevin Gausman on the DL. This forces rookie Bryse Wilson into the starter's role for today and we look for him to struggle with the Phillies lineup, just as predecessor Julio Teheran did. At the big league level, Wilson has made just one start and two relief appearances. Make no mistake about it, he's only in this spot due to injuries. Philadelphia hit three home runs Thursday. Their offense figures to score plenty again here, but don't be surprised to see them give up some runs here too. Starter Pivetta had a pretty high ERA (4.80) last year and the Over is 6-1 the last seven times he's started the second game of a series. The Phillies had the worst defense in the league last year and that could account for some extra runs scored here too. Play OVER Atlanta-Philadelphia AAA |
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03-30-19 | White Sox v. Royals -120 | Top | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on KC We don't expect much from either of these teams in 2019, but someone has to win these games and in the case of Opening Day, it was the Royals getting the job done. They beat the White Sox 5-3, thanks to starter Brad Keller giving them seven shutout innings of two-hit ball. Chicago scored all three of its runs in the ninth inning and had nearly as many errors (3) as they did hits (4) in the game. Kansas City is a team built on speed, both on the basepaths and defensively. They aren't going to be good this year, but if they get the kind of starting pitching Keller gave them Thursday, then they can certainly beat an opponent like the White Sox. Jakob Junis will start here, looking to build off a strong finish to '18 where he won his final three starts and four of his last five. He allowed 3 ER or fewer in 9 of his last 10 starts. Chicago's Lopez had a similar strong finish to the year, but he's backed by a very young lineup that is going to struggle to score runs here. Also, Lopez's numbers were much worse on the road in 2018. How about the fact Chicago is 16-42 following an off day, or 0 for their last 7 after giving up 5+ runs the last game? Play on KC AAA |
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03-29-19 | Giants v. Padres -145 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on SAN DIEGO Expectations are higher than normal for San Diego this year due to the surprise signing of Manny Machado. Just how high this Padres club can climb is up for debate, but they got 2019 off to a good start by shutting out the Giants yesterday. It was a 2-0 win. While Machado was hitless, heavily hyped rookie Fernando Tatis singled twice in his debut. There are some that feel Tatis will have the bigger impact this season. As for the Giants, look for them to have little impact in the National League West. They are about to embark on the same trip San Diego took the last couple years, that being a neccessary rebuild. Joey Lucchesi starts tonight for the Padres, looking to build off a season where he led the team with 130 strikeouts. Lucchesi looked good in the Spring and was 1-0 in two starts vs. the Giants last year. He'll face Derek Holland, whose ERA saw massive improvement in 2018, probably due to moving to the National League. But we don't expect a repeat of last year's 3.57 ERA nor do we expect much from the Giants offense after being shutout last night. Going back to the end of last year, San Diego has won four of five against San Fran. Play on SAN DIEGO AAA |
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03-29-19 | Blazers v. Hawks +3 | Top | 118-98 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on ATLANTA The Hawks are a live dog in this situation as Portland is still adjusting to life without Jusuf Nurkic. Perhaps inspired by their injured teammate, the Blazers did win two nights ago by a score of 118-98. But that was against a terrible Chicago team. Nurkic isn't coming back as he suffered a horrible season-ending leg injury in Monday's double overtime victory against Brooklyn. His absence wasn't felt against the Bulls, but will be here in Atlanta. It's been a trying week with a double overtime game, never mind also losing arguably their best player not named Damian Lillard. Nurkic's replacement, Enes Kanter, is a major liability on the defensive end for a team that is already the weakest of the eight Western Conference playoff teams on that end of the floor. The Blazers road record this season is only 18-18 SU, a far cry from their 29-9 SU mark at home. By the way, Atlanta has quietly won three straight games. Two of those wins were against Philly and Utah. They are 7-2 ATS the last nine games overall. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
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03-29-19 | Auburn v. North Carolina OVER 164 | Top | 97-80 | Win | 100 | 26 h 27 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on OVER Auburn-North Carolina This game figures to see plenty of points. Both teams are averaging over 80 points per game in the tournament. Both average either more (North Carolina) or close to (Auburn) 80 PPG over the whole season. North Carolina scores the third most points in the country at 86.0 PPG. They should not have much trouble scoring here. A key advantage they have over Auburn is rebounding. The Tar Heels outrebound their opponents - on average - by about 10.5 per game. Auburn is at -3.5 rebounds per game. We expect lots of second chance points for the Tar Heels in this one. They just put up 81 against a Washington team that was top 20 in the country in defensive efficiency. We had the Under in that one and it stayed Under with North Carolina holding the Huskies to just 59 points. But Washington is fairly inept offensively, a description that clearly does not apply to Auburn. The Tigers have scored at least 78 points seven times during their 10-game win streak. The Over is 5-0 in their last five games vs. teams that have a win percentage north of .600. That includes 2-0 in the Tournament as they have given up 77 and 75 points. Play OVER Auburn-North Carolina AAA |
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03-29-19 | LSU v. Michigan State UNDER 149.5 | Top | 63-80 | Win | 100 | 97 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER LSU-Michigan State This should be a dogfight. LSU has won a couple of close games so far, sticking true to their profile. A 79-74 win over Yale and 69-67 win over Maryland makes it 11 wins this season by five points or less for the Tigers. That doesn't even include a pair of six-point overtime victories in conference play. Michigan State was shaky in Round 1 vs. Bradley (failed to cover), but totally shut down Big 10 rival Minnesota in the round of 32. Sparty won that game 70-50, holding the Golden Gophers to a 30.5% shooting percentage. LSU didn't shoot particularly well in their win over Maryland (36.9%) but was fortunate to hold the Terps to 33.3%. Expect this to be a low-scoring affair. In their last 13 games, MSU has allowed more than 70 points just one time. They are 18-7-1 to the Under when off an ATS victory. The Under is 5-2 in LSU's last seven games overall with both Overs coming against the same team - Florida. The total for both Florida games was lower than it is here. Michigan State won't be shooting 57.1% again here like they did vs. Minnesota. Play UNDER LSU-Michigan State AAA |
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03-29-19 | Blues -205 v. Rangers | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -205 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 6* play on ST. LOUIS Should be an easy two points tonight for the Blues, who could find themselves tied for second place in the Central Division if all breaks right for them tonight. First they need to beat the Rangers, which seems likely given the current state of their opponent. New York has won just once in its last eight games with five of the seven losses coming by three goals or more. At this point, the Rangers are just looking forward to summer vacation as they've been out of contention for some time. St. Louis is on a four-game win streak and has played as well as any team in the league in the second half. They are 34-17-5 since Craig Berube took over behind the bench, including a 20-5-3 record their past 28 games. Making life even easier is that the Blues have been off since Monday. They are already 5-2 this season when playing with three or more days rest. The team is 55-14 their past 69 games as a favorite of -201 or higher, so laying the juice is certainly justified in this particular instance. Play on ST. LOUIS AAA |
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03-28-19 | Oregon v. Virginia -8 | Top | 49-53 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on VIRGINIA Favorites have dominated this year's NCAA Tournament and there's no better way to illustrate that than to point to the fact there's only one team seeded lower than fifth left. Fourteen of the 16 teams seeded four or higher have gotten to the Sweet 16 and the other two were still favored to win in Round 2. That lone team left seeded lower than 5th would be Oregon, a 12-seed. But not only were they favored to win in the last round, they opened as a slight favorite against Wisconisin in the first round. But it's a bit step up for the Ducks in this round as they draw Virginia. This will undoubtedly be Oregon's toughest test in a run that has seen them win and cover 10 straight games. In the past five NCAA Tournaments, 1 seeds are 14-1 SU in the Sweet 16, covering the spread 12 times. No 12 seed has ever beaten a 1 seed in this round and most of the games haven't even been close. Virginia gives up the fewest points in the country and seems to be over the mental hurdle of losing last year in the first round to MD-Baltimore County, which was the first time ever that 1 seed lost to a 16. Oregon did a nice job defensively against Wisconsin and UC Irvine, but neither was/is a good offensive team. A little known fact about Virginia is they are #2 in the country in offensive efficiency. Play on VIRGINIA AAA |
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03-28-19 | Florida State v. Gonzaga -7 | Top | 58-72 | Win | 100 | 73 h 39 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on GONZAGA Gonzaga has looked quite impressive so far. Unlike the other #1 seeds, they never trailed in the first round. Instead, they laid a severe beatdown on Farleigh Dickinson, 87-49, a game that was never close (53-17 lead at halftime). The Bulldogs also didn't have much problem with Baylor in the Round of 32. They won that game 83-71 and had a 16-point lead at halftime. Thursday, they'll face the team that eliminated them from last year's Sweet 16, that being Florida State. But last year's meeting saw Gonzaga coming in at less than full strength as Killian Tillie couldn't suit up and that had a dramatic effect on the team according to coach Mark Few. This time, the narrative is flipped as Florida State will have to play without Phil Cofer, who is back home for his father's funeral. It's hard enough to beat Gonzaga at full strength, let alone short handed. This Gonzaga team averages 88.6 points per game while shooting 53.2 percent. Both marks are easily tops in the country with the shooting percentage blowing away every other team. The revenge factor can sometimes be overrated, but not here. In the past five NCAA Tournaments, 1 seeds are 14-1 SU in the Sweet 16, covering the spread 12 times. Play on GONZAGA AAA |
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03-28-19 | Canadiens v. Blue Jackets -145 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on COLUMBUS There's a lot on the line here. These two teams are vying against one another for the final Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference. Right now, Montreal has a two point edge over Columbus. That could obviously go away after tonight and we think it will. The Blue Jackets do have two more regulation + OT wins this season compared to the Canadiens. They are also coming off two straight shutouts where they outscored the Canucks and Islanders 9-0. Montreal just beat Florida 6-1, but that was at home and they haven't had to play many road games recently. The Habs have lost 4 of 5 on the road, getting oustcored by a 2:1 margin. While 2-0 against Columbus in the current season, they're not the more talented team here. Blue Jackets goalie Sergei Bobrovsky actually now leads the league with eight shutouts. He'll obviously be the one in goal tonight and may very well be the difference maker in a game his team must have. Play on COLUMBUS AAA |
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03-28-19 | Pirates v. Reds -108 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on CINCINNATI The Reds have had a hard time with the Pirates the last couple seasons, losing 14 of the last 19 head to head matchups. But they've also not been a very good team for awhile now. That could change in 2019 where improvement is expected. Many have them escaping the NL Central basement for the first time in forever and if they do, it's likely at the Pirates' expense. Cincy does start the season a little short-handed with 2B Scooter Gennett on the DL. But that loss will be mitigated today by the pitching of starter Luis Castillo, who had an excellent finish to 2018. Over his final 11 starts, Castillo struck out 69 batters in 66 1/3 innings and posted a 2.44 ERA. In the month of September, he allowed only 4 earned runs in 33 innings. We don't think Pittsburgh is going to be very good this season and starter Taillon is just 4-4 with a 4.30 ERA in 12 career starts vs. the Reds. Good price on the home team today. Play on CINCINNATI AAA |
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03-27-19 | Stars v. Flames -155 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -155 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on CALGARY Calgary has already clinched a playoff berth and now is trying to lock down a division title. They've got a six-point edge over ice cold San Jose and considering how the Sharks have looked of late, the Flames finishing first might be a formality at this point. But don't expect the home team to take this game lightly as they just lost 3-0 to the last place Kings on Monday. That game saw them finish with a 42-20 edge in shots, so that makes the final score even more disappointing. Dallas badly needs a win here too as they are trying to lock down at least a Wild Card spot. But Calgary has gone 25-8-5 at home and will be taking the ice with double revenge for two losses that occurred early in the season. In other words, any hopes the Stars had of Calgary not taking this game serious are false. Considering they just went 1-4 on a recent home stand, the likelihood of Dallas winning back to back games in Western Canada seem remote. They win in Winnipeg Monday, but not here. Play on CALGARY AAA |
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03-27-19 | Pacers v. Thunder UNDER 215 | Top | 99-107 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER Indiana-Oklahoma City These two have gone Under the last four times they've faced one another and the Pacers have been going Under with regularity of late. It's an 8-2 Under run for Indiana after turning in a very immpressive performance against Denver Sunday night, holding the Nuggets to just 88 points in a 36-point victory. The Pacers have consistently been one of the league's best defensive teams all season. They have the top scoring defense, allowing 103.9 points per game. They are third in defensive efficiency and right behind them in that department would be tonight's opponent, Oklahoma City. The Thunder have been struggling of late, dropping five of six including an outright loss at Memphis the other night by a score of 115-103. They SHOULD bounce back tonight against a Pacers team playing on the road for the fifth time in the last six games. As impressive as beating Denver was, Indiana had lost four in a row before that - all on the road - and they averaged just 99 points per game in those losses. They definitely miss not having Victor Oladipo, whose season is done because of injury. Play UNDER Indiana-OKC AAA |
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03-27-19 | Coastal Carolina v. DePaul -7.5 | Top | 87-92 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on DePaul Both of these teams scored an insane amount of points in their last game. Coastal Carolina dropped a shocking 109 points on West Virginia (in Morgantown!) in an upset as 10.5-point underdogs. DePaul scoring 97 at home vs. Longwood was less shocking when you consider it was the fourth time in the last six games they'd reached at least 90. There's a pair of 100+ point efforts in there as well for the Blue Demons, so they seem like the more consistent scoring bunch in this one and they're laying a much shorter number this time around compared to the line for the Longwood game. DePaul averages more than 80 points per game at home and should have its way with a Coastal Carolina defense that's giving up 76.2 PPG on the road. The oddsmakers probably couldn't make this total high enough, but they apparently "forgot about the spread" as it's too low considering DePaul's perfect 5-0 ATS mark when taking on an opponent that just scored 100 or more in its last game. Play on DEPAUL AAA |
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03-26-19 | Pistons v. Nuggets -7 | Top | 92-95 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on DENVER Denver is off an embarrassing loss as Indiana as they went down 124-88 in one of their uglier performances all year. Such a lousy effort was ill-timed with them currently locked into a tight battle with Golden State for the #1 seed in the Western Conference. Right now, the Nuggets trail the Warriors by one-half game, so a win tonight would square things up with only nine games left in the regular season. Motivation should not be an issue here at home where the Nuggets are 30-6 SU, 23-13 ATS and winning by an average of almost 11 points per game. They've got revenge on the mind tonight as well due to having lost in Detroit (by 26!) early in February. This season has seen Denver go a perfect 9-0 against the number at home when seeking revenge for a loss where they were a road favorite. Even though they're a likely playoff team in the East, the Pistons have been quite shaky on the road where their record for the season is only 14-23. They've lost five of their last six games away from home, including some real wretched efforts, and the one win was against Phoenix. The Mile High City is one of the LAST places in the league they're likely to turn that around. Play on DENVER AAA |
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03-26-19 | Clippers -2.5 v. Wolves | Top | 122-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the CLIPPERS The Clippers are hot right now. They've won 10 of their last 11 and five straight. Tonight, they'll hope to avoid what happened the last time they were on a five-game win streak and that's lose. That last loss occurred at home against Portland, but tonight they'll be facing much weaker competition in the form of Minnesota. Even though this is a road game, Los Angeles still should roll considering they have a lot to play for and the Timberwolves do not. Minny was officially eliminated from playoff contention last week, an appropriate result for such a disappointing season. They'd lost five in a row before winning at Memphis on Saturday. While the Timberwolves have a 23-11 record at home, we just don't see them getting the cash tonight. Not with trends favoring the road team, such as the Clippers 11-4-1 ATS mark their past 16 trips to Minneapolis. That's part of a larger 20-8-1 ATS run by the road team in the series and the favorite has cashed four of the last five times they've played. Play on LA CLIPPERS AAA |
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03-26-19 | Hawks +1 v. Pelicans | Top | 130-120 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on ATLANTA The Hawks are a perfect 8-0 against the spread this season when they're playing on the road and off a win at home. They just beat Philadelphia, 129-127, at home on Saturday. They pulled the upset (were +7) thanks to Trae Young's game winner in the final seconds. It was Atlanta's second straight win over a playoff team as they also beat Utah (at home) last week. Now they're on the road, but they get a break - some would say a big one - as New Orleans looks to have totally given up on the season. Looking back, the Anthony Davis trade request definitely sunk this team's season, which is too bad as they were a playoff contender before Davis made his feelings known. Now the Pelicans have lost eight of nine, one of the games coming against the Hawks on March 10 when they lost 126-118. Defense has been almost non-existent for New Orleans, who is giving up an incredible number of points lately. Those last nine games have seen them allow: 114, 127, 128, 130, 122, 138, 125, 119 and 113 points. It hasn't helped that in the last two games they've been held to 96 and 90 themselves. Atlanta will want this one more. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
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03-26-19 | Sabres v. Senators OVER 6 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* OVER play on Buffalo-Ottawa The Sabres were dealt a 3-1 loss last night in New Jersey, their 12th consecutive loss on the road. It's the club's longest road losing streak in four years and it's played a significant role in the team already being eliminated from playoff contention. Back when they were winning 10 in a row in November, Sabres fans could not have fathomed such an ugly end to this season. But tonight is as good a chance as any to snap this losing streak as the Sabres are in Ottawa. The Senators have the fewest points in the league and have given up the most goals. Still, Buffalo can't be too confident after having given up 26 goals itself the last six games. If there was one thing to "like" about last night's game, it was that the Sabres had 46 shots on goal. So they're still trying. We like their chances to slip plenty of goals past Ottawa goalie Craig Anderson, who has been terrible in two previous starts vs. Buffalo this season (4.05 GAA). Buffalo won 9-2 the last time they faced the Senators. Play OVER Buffalo-Ottawa AAA |
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03-26-19 | Charleston Southern v. Hampton -1.5 | Top | 67-73 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on HAMPTON This is a second round matchup in the College Insider Tournament and we believe Hampton will enjoy a significant advantage due to having the home court. The Pirates 1st round CIT game was here at home and they beat St. Francis 81-72 as 8.5-point favorites. Their home record is now 11-3 for the season with them covering the spread in 8 of a possible 11 chances. They sure can score at home as they average 86.4 points per game. They also play much better defense, giving up only 70.8 points per game. Now a member of the Big South, this will be Hampton's second meeting of the year with Charleston Southern, whom they defeated in the regular season by a score of 94-82. That was a home game and the Pirates were favored by four points. We are shocked that they're favored by LESS for this postseason rematch. Charleston Southern barely got by Florida Atlantic in its first round CIT game, winning by only two despite shooting the ball much better. The Buccaneers don't get to the free throw line enough and that will cost them on the road against a high-scoring opponent. Play on HAMPTON AAA |
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03-25-19 | Nets v. Blazers -6 | Top | 144-148 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on PORTLAND Portland scratched out a cover for us on Saturday, beating Detroit by five (were laying -4.5). It's a slightly larger spread tonight against Brooklyn, but that should be the case even though the Nets have covered three in a row. One of those games was a loss (at LAC) and then the Nets pulled out two close wins against Sacramento and the Lakers. One of those games (Sacramento), they trailed by 25 in the fourth quarter. Tonight will be their sixth straight road game, a trip which started 12 days ago in Oklahoma City. Portland has won six of seven with three straight wins coming at home. The Blazers are a very good bet at home considering they're 39-19-1 ATS the last 59 times playing here. They've already won in Brooklyn, by double digits, last month. They are 28-9 SU here this season, winning by an average margin of 8.2 points per game and most of those games come against Western Conference teams. Brooklyn being a likely playoff team is simply a byproduct of playing in the weak Eastern Conference. The Nets are 21-4 straight game in games where they are favored, but only 17-32 when they are the underdog. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
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03-25-19 | Norfolk State +14.5 v. Colorado | Top | 60-76 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on NORFOLK STATE Norfolk State pulled a pretty big upset its last time out, upsetting Alabama (one of the NIT's four 1-seeds) 80-79 as 16-point underdogs. They're again getting no respect from the oddsmakers here against Colorado with the winner moving on to face Texas (another OT winner in its last game) two days from now in a quarterfinal matchup. The Spartans were regular season champs in the MEAC with a 14-2 conference record, so they "know how to win" and we think they're getting too many points here. Colorado is a strong home team (14-2 SU record), but it was only a five-point win over Dayton here in Boulder in 1st round NIT action. The Buffaloes are enjoying a strong finish to the year, but Norfolk State has not lost a game by double digits since before Christmas. They are 8-5 ATS as an underdog this season. Too many points for Colorado to lay here as the only time they were a double digit favorite this month (-10 vs. Cal) was one of two games they failed to cover the spread. Play on NORFOLK STATE AAA |
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03-25-19 | Penguins -198 v. Rangers | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 6* play on PITTSBURGH The Penguins are not only trying to make the playoffs, they're going for a division title. There's a wide range of outcomes for where they can actually land in terms of playoff position, but the concern is winning the Metropolitan. They're three points back of Washington entering play tonight and can tie the second place Islanders with a win here. (Both Washington and NY won Sunday). Winning tonight should not be difficult as the Pens play the Rangers. The Blueshirts are officially eliminated from contention and figure to "mail this one in" after a surprising overtime win in Toronto on Saturday. The last time New York won back to back games was back before the All Star Break. Since then, they are 0-7 SU off a win and have dropped 18 of 26 games overall. Pittsburgh is 13-4-4 its last 21 games. While many of the wins have been close, you have to like the way goalie Matt Murray has played of late. He is 7-2-2 his last 11 starts, posting a 2.08 goals against average and .939 save percentage. Throw in the Penguins offensive firepower (3.34 goals per game) and we're not sure how the Rangers stand a chance here. They've already lost two meetings to Pittsburgh earlier this year, giving up 13 goals in the process. The Penguins are 10-4 the last 14 meetings. Play on PITTSBURGH AAA |
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03-25-19 | Utah Valley v. South Florida OVER 146 | Top | 57-66 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER Utah Valley-USF There should be plenty of points scored in this CBI matchup Monday evening. Utah Valley State just scored 91 in their last game (while giving up 84) and they've been pretty prolfic this entire season. The Wolverines average 77.6 points per game overall and have exceeded that average over the last five games. South Florida just gave up 48 points in a half to its previous opponent, Stony Brook, before coming back to win. That was the most points scored by Stony Brook in any half this season. USF wound up getting the three-point win in overtime, thanks to a strong defensive effort after halftime, but strong defensive efforts have been somewhat few and far between with this group. The Bulls two previous opponents both shot better than 54% from the field and Utah Valley is certainly capable of doing the same as they shoot 38.5% from three-point range. USF's last four games have all gone Over as have the last two for Utah Valley. The Over is 7-0 in USF's last seven home games and 6-0 the last six times Utah Valley has taken on a team with a win percentage above .600. Play OVER Utah Valley State-South Florida AAA |
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03-24-19 | Blue Jackets -155 v. Canucks | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on COLUMBUS We played against Vancouver last night and they lost here at home to Calgary by a score of 3-1. The opponent isn't quite as strong Sunday night, but they are more desperate. Columbus is on the outside looking in when it comes to the playoff picture in the Eastern Conference. They need two points just to keep pace w/ Montreal, who holds the final Wild Card spot and is three points ahead. The Blue Jackets have done themselves no favors recently by losing three in a row. But that losing streak should end tonight as the Canucks are without rest and motivation. Losses at both Boston and Calgary were excusable for C-bus, but the 4-1 loss they suffered at Edmonton Thursday night was not. Fortunately, the Jackets are 16-7 coming off a multi-goal loss this year. An offense that has averaged only 2.08 goals per game since the trade deadline really needs to get going. It should here against a Vancouver team that is below average defensively. The Blue Jackets have revenge here too as they lost at home to the Canucks back in December. A good spot for the road team to get back on track. Play on COLUMBUS AAA |
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03-24-19 | Cal-Irvine v. Oregon UNDER 124.5 | Top | 54-73 | Loss | -109 | 25 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER UC Irvine-Oregon We're guaranteed to have at least one Sweet Sixteen team seeded 12th or lower thanks to this matchup. While it can and will be said that both Oregon and UC Irvine pulled upsets, really, only the latter truly did. Oregon actually opened as a 1-pt favorite for its first round game vs. Wisconsin and for good reason. The Ducks are as hot right now as any team in the country. The 72-54 win and cover over the Badgers was their ninth in a row. As in they're 9-0 SU and ATS the last nine games. Seven of those nine victims were held to a field goal percentage of 34.0 or lower. Speaking of defense, that's how UC Irvine pulled the biggest upset in terms of seed (13 over 4), beating Kansas State. The Big West Champs are no slouch and we don't expect Oregon to shoot 54.9% from the floor in this game (like they did vs. Wisconsin). No UC Irvine opponent has shot better than 42.0 percent its last 12 games. We get that it's a low total. But the Under is 12-3 in Oregon's past 15 games. UC Irvine has gone Under in 15 of its last 22 when facing a team with a win percentage of .600 or better. Two good defensive teams go Under. Play UNDER UC Irvine-Oregon AAA |
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03-24-19 | Nuggets v. Pacers UNDER 209.5 | Top | 88-124 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* UNDER on Denver-Indiana Indiana has done a great job at staying Under the total recently with eight of their last nine games going that way. But so has Denver, who is riding a five-game Under streak entering Sunday and 14-1 Under its last 15 games. During a six-game win streak, the Nuggets have allowed an average of just 102 points per game. They should not have much trouble containing a Pacers team that is beginning to really miss not having leading scorer Victor Oladipo. But one thing that Indiana does still have is the league's top scoring defense as they are giving up just 104.2 PPG for the season and that number drops to 100.2 when playing at home. Denver isn't nearly as prolific on offense when they're on the road as they're scoring average dips over seven points per game compared to at home. Due almost exclusively to that drop in scoring, the Under is 23-12 in all Nuggets road games. These teams just played last Saturday, in Denver, and the Nuggets prevailed 102-100. The rematch should be just as low scoring, if not more so due to Denver's decrease in scoring on the road and Indiana's superb defense at home. Play UNDER Denver-Indiana AAA |
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03-24-19 | Washington v. North Carolina -11.5 | Top | 59-81 | Win | 100 | 19 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on NORTH CAROLINA Three ACC teams received #1 seeds in this Tournament and all three surprisingly struggled with their first round opponent. In the case of North Carolina, they were actually down 38-33 to Iona at halftime. But the Tar Heels exploded in the second half, scoring 55 points and won easily. Meanwhile, Washington may not have been able to play any better than it did against Utah State. They won 78-61, leading virtually the whole way. But we don't expect the Huskies to play that well again and UNC should certainly start better than they did Friday night. For what it's worth, the Tar Heels are 8-1 against the spread away from Chapel Hill, if coming off an Under. The Iona game did stay Under a very high total. Washington is not a good offensive team. Believe it or not, they have the lowest offensive efficiency of any team left in the tournament - with the exception of UC Irvine. Twice, Oregon held UW below 50 points late in the year, one of those in the Pac 12 Tournament Final. North Carolina is an even better defensive team that Oregon. Obviously, there's no comparison on offense as the Tar Heels average 86.1 points per game. Play on NORTH CAROLINA AAA |
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03-24-19 | Washington v. North Carolina UNDER 148.5 | Top | 59-81 | Win | 100 | 19 h 60 m | Show |
This is an 8* UNDER Washington-North Carolina We expect North Carolina to roll in this second round matchup with Washington, but don't go expecting them to hit their season average in points per game. Thanks to a big second half, they did hit 88 in the first round. But that was against a bad defensive team in Iona. Washington is actually very good on the defensive end as it holds its foes to an average of 64.3 points per game. The Huskies really kept Utah State in check Friday night, limiting them to 61 points on 35.2% shooting. But the UW offense will be what ultimately costs the team this game. It's been a 63.4 PPG average the last five games, which includes a pair of sub-50 point efforts against Oregon. UNC is even stronger than Oregon on the defensive end. That the Huskies struggled so much on offense in a weak Pac 12 is a very bad sign for this game. They shot much better than usual against Utah State, which we don't see being the case here. Four of North Carolina's last five games have gone Under with none of those opponents scoring 75 points. The Under is now 4-0 in the Tar Heels' previous four Tournament games. Washington is 6-1 Under its last 7 games following an ATS victory. Play UNDER Washington-North Carolina AAA |
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03-23-19 | Flames -175 v. Canucks | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 7* play on CALGARY Vancouver has won three in a row, but that comes with a bit of a caveat considering two of the wins were against Chicago and Ottawa. It's a much stiffer test tonight against Calgary and while it comes at home, we don't see the Canucks as being up for the challenge. The division leading Flames have gotten a gift in the form of San Jose losing five straight, thus it's now a four point lead in the Pacific. Getting two more points tonight would be huge as there's only seven games left to play in the regular season. The Flames have also helped themselves by winning five of six and they've done plenty of scoring with 30 goals in that stretch. Vancouver scored seven times in its win over Ottawa on Wednesday night (Calgary's last opponent was also Ottawa and they scored five goals). But as we said at the open, this is a much tougher opponent. Calgary is tied for the second fewest number of goals allowed on the road this season. The Canucks' recent play just isn't indicative of the kind of season they're having while it's been "par for the course" with the Flames. Play on CALGARY AAA |
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03-23-19 | Pistons v. Blazers -5 | Top | 112-117 | Push | 0 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on PORTLAND Portland seems too short of a favorite here as they really are a much better team than Detroit. Based on the way they are priced though, you'd think the oddsmakers were of the opinion that these teams were relative equals. That is certainly not the case however as the Blazers play in the tougher conference, have a better overall record and vastly superior point differential. Even with an 8-3 March, the Pistons have still been outscored on the year and recent efforts on the road leave a lot to be desired. They did just win in Phoenix on Thursday, but before that lost in Cleveland and were also held to 75 and 74 points in key losses at Brooklyn and Miami. Detroit is only 14-21 SU on the road and lacks the offensive firepower to keep up with a Portland team that averages 117.1 points per game in its home arena. The Blazers have a home record of 27-9 SU and are coming off back to back eight point wins over Indiana and Dallas. They've won five of six overall with every win coming by at least eight points. The final score of Detroit's last game is a little misleading (they won by 20 points) as they were actually down at halftime. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
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03-23-19 | Suns v. Kings OVER 231 | Top | 103-112 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on OVER Phoenix-Sacramento Despite these being two of the very worst defensive teams in all of basketball, the Kings and Suns have managed to produce a couple of Unders the two times they've met in 2019. A matchup early in the season did go Over, but a much lower number. But oddsmakers don't seem to be fooled by those head to head results, nor are we. Phoenix gives up 116.1 points per game, tied for the most in the Western Conference, while Sacramento isn't too far behind as they allow 114.8. The Suns only scored 98 points in their last game and held Detroit to 42.2% shooting (still lost by 20). That's not indicative of how most of their games go. After scoring 60 points in the first half, they were held to just 38 in the second. Sacramento's last game was also a much better than usual defensive effort as they held Dallas to 100 points on 39.1% shooting. We just can't see this game NOT turning into a "track meet" and that means Over is the call. Play OVER Sacramento-Phoenix AAA |
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03-23-19 | Villanova v. Purdue -3.5 | Top | 61-87 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on PURDUE It was not pretty, but defending champion Villanova was able to hold on to defeat St. Mary's 61-57 in their 1st round game Thursday. A little later on in the day, Purdue had a much easier time against Old Dominion, winning that game by double digits. Both games fell right near the number, but for us, the Boilermakers were a winner. We'll go with the Boilers yet again tonight as they are the superior side and 'Nova is still getting too much respect based on the fact they are the defending National Champs. But this year's team isn't nearly as good despite rolling to another Big East title. Purdue tied Michigan State for the best regular season record in the Big 10, which is something that seems to go unnnoticed. They just held ODU to 26.9% shooting and 49 points. While it obviously won't be as easy against Villanova, the Boilermakers are the much better defensive team here. In terms of defensive efficiency, there are only three teams left in the field of 32 with a worse rating than the Wildcats. Purdue enjoying a double digit advantage for almost the entire game against ODU is even more impressive when you consider they played without their starting point guard (he's a "full go" for tonight) and leading scorer Carsen Edwards shot just 7 of 23. We like Purdue a lot here. Play on PURDUE AAA |
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03-23-19 | Wofford v. Kentucky UNDER 139 | Top | 56-62 | Win | 100 | 16 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on UNDER Wofford-Kentucky Kentucky turned in one of the more dominant first round performances, beating Abilene Christian 79-44. It was a first half romp as UK raced out to an 18-3 advantage, led 39-13 at the break and it was over from there. This was without P.J. Washington mind you. Not having Washington hardly mattered against a team like Abilene Christian, but could hurt the Wildcats against Wofford. The Terriers used a second half surge to win their game against Seton Hall Thursday, ending the game on a 22-6 run. Being that Kentucky does not make a lot of threes (only made 4 vs. ACU), but will do a better job defending Wofford than Seton Hall did, this game has all the makings of an Under. Kentucky will not be shooting 62% on two-point attempts again like they did Thursday. Similarly, Wofford will not find the same three point success here as they did vs. Seton Hall. The Under is 22-12 in all UK games this season, including 11-3 the last 14. A second game in three days will also lead to a slower pace. Play UNDER Wofford-Kentucky AAA |
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03-23-19 | Maryland v. LSU UNDER 145.5 | Top | 67-69 | Win | 100 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Maryland-LSU The size advantage that both Maryland and LSU enjoyed in their first round victories simply will not be present here. Both teams are big and talented in the frontcourt, so second chance points should be kept to a minimum. LSU is not known as a great defensive team by any means. However, they did just hold Yale to a 37.5 FG%. Maryland isn't going to shoot the lights out here either as when you take them out of College Park, they are hitting at only 42.5% and averaging 65.9 points. But what the Terrapins can do is play outstanding defense. Their opponents are shooting below 40% for the year. Neither team should score as many here as they did in Round 1. The Under is 6-2 in Maryland's previous eight neutral site games. It was an Over vs. Belmont, but that's a team that plays at an ultra-fast pace. LSU doesn't exactly play "slow," but the Under is now 9-1 in their last 10 NCAA Tournament games. Play UNDER Maryland-LSU AAA |
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03-22-19 | Nets v. Lakers OVER 230.5 | Top | 111-106 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Brooklyn-LA LAKERS Points should be plentiful in this late night matchup Friday. Brooklyn is in the midst of a somewhat difficult seven-game road trip as it tries to make the playoffs. The trip did not start well as they lost the first three games. But they won at Sacramento Tuesday night, ironically doing so in spite of a defensive effort that was far worse than what we'd been seeing recently from them. They let the Kings score 121 points on 51.6% shooting. The prior seven Nets games all saw the opponent shoot 43.3% or worse from the field. But on the road trip, they're still giving up almost 116 points per game. The Lakers are obviously a dumpster fire right now and have thrown in the towel. But they still have LeBron James and last we checked, he's still really good. James is averaging 27.5 points, 8.5 rebounds and 8.0 assists this season. He sat out the team's 115-101 loss to Milwaukee Tuesday night as his teammates combined to shoot just 38.4%. We expect both teams to score a lot tonight and for this game to go Over the total. Play OVER Brooklyn-LA Lakers AAA |
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03-22-19 | UCF v. VCU +1 | Top | 73-58 | Loss | -109 | 22 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on VCU VCU is a team to keep an eye on in this Tournament due to the defense they play. They're also probably underseeded. The Rams were regular season champs in the A-10, but were bounced early in their conference tournament by an upset-minded Rhode Island team. We look for VCU to come out a make a statement here in their first round NCAA Tournament game. UCF also didn't last long in the American Tournament as they ran into the host school, Memphis, and got blown out 79-55. The Golden Knights actually enter the Tourney on a two-game losing streak as they got beat by Temple in the regular season finale. Both games they shot poorly. VCU holds its opponents to a 38.4 FG%. We know Marcus Evans hurt his knee in the loss to Rhode Island, but this is a deep team as 11 players regularly get on the court. VCU is 15-4 ATS its last 19 NCAA Tournament games. Play on VCU AAA |
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03-22-19 | Wild v. Capitals -163 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -163 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 7* play on WASHINGTON Washington has lost only three of its last 12 games and two of the losses were to Tampa Bay. The Lightning just got them here in D.C. Wednesday, winning a 5-4 decision in overtime. That game saw the Capitals outshoot TB 58-28, which is the kind of effort that typically results in victory. On the bright side, the Caps were able to at least earn a point and stay in front in the Metropolitan. Tonight's opponent is Minnesota, who is just trying to sneak into the playoffs over in the Western Conference. But the Wild have failed to help themselves lately, losing five of their last six games and seven of the last nine. Still, they're only one point back of the Wild Card, but a -17 goal differential tell us that this team is "not ready for primetime," let alone the Capitals. The Wild have not scored more than two goals in any of their last five losses. Washington is 24-11 SU against teams with losing records this season (Wild are 34-31-9) and not only are they 9-2 SU the L11 head to head meetings, they've won five straight at home over Minnesota. Home team gets the two points. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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03-22-19 | Arizona State v. Buffalo OVER 157 | Top | 74-91 | Win | 100 | 16 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER Arizona State-Buffalo We took the Under in Arizona State's game Wednesday, which they won handily. But this time won't be facing an offensively inept team like St. John's, whom they limited to 31.9% shooting. Instead it will be Buffalo, one of the highest scoring teams in the country. The MAC Champion Bulls average 84.9 points per game and when you couple that with the fact ASU averages 77.7, you have the recipe for a high-scoring affair. Yes, we definitely cited the Sun Devils strong field goal percentage defense as a reason to expect Wednesday's game to go Under. But Buffalo should prove too difficult to stop. They play at a very fast tempo as is evident by them topping 80 points in five striaght games. ASU isn't too far behind, scoring at least 74 in its last five games. With ASU coach Bobby Hurley having previously coached at Buffalo, there should be no surprises defensively here. Play OVER Arizona State-Buffalo AAA |
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03-22-19 | Gardner-Webb v. Virginia UNDER 131 | Top | 56-71 | Win | 100 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER Gardner-Webb vs. Virginia This is our top Round 1 total. Certainly, the defense of Virginia needs no introduction. The top seeded Cavaliers lead the country in scoring defense (55.1 PPG allowed), giving up 3.5 PPG fewer than the second best team (Michigan). Yes, we're sure you remember last year's epic flameout in the 1st round as the Cavs became the first 1-seed to ever lose to a 16-seed (you knew it would happen eventually). But this team should be on a mission to atone for that sin. Don't look for Gardner-Webb to be anywhere near as successful as UMBC was last year. The Bulldogs have won eight of nine and upset Radford to win the Big South Tourney. But they're severely outclassed here. Virginia did lose its last game, to Florida State in the ACC Semifinals, which becomes important when you consider UVA is 7-2 Under its last nine times following a SU loss. There's a strong chance Gardner-Webb gets held to a season low in points this afternoon. Virginia plays slow and its opponents average less than 20 made field goals per game. On the bright side for Gardner-Webb is the fact Virginia scored only 59 points its last game. Play UNDER Gardner Webb-Virginia AAA |
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03-22-19 | Colgate v. Tennessee UNDER 148.5 | Top | 70-77 | Win | 100 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Colgate-Tennessee Despite having spent significant time ranked #1 in the country, Tennessee still has a sense of skepticism around them. Now they should have no problem beating 15-seed Colgate Friday. But the second-seeded Vols definitely didn't look good in their SEC Final loss to Auburn on Sunday. They went down there by a score of 84-64. It was the 4th straight game giving up 76 points or more. All four games went Over. But even though the Volunteers are facing a team that has won 11 in a row, we'll call for them to turn in their best defensive effort in a while. Colgate's last three games were all Over, but they should expect to find UT a lot tougher to score on than the standard Patriot League fare. The Raiders played only one NCAA Tournament team all season (Syracuse) and they scored just 54 points. The Under is a powerful 20-4 the last 24 times Colgate has faced an opponent with a win percentage of .600 or greater. The Under is a on 19-9 run in Tennessee games when they are off an ATS loss. Play UNDER Colgate-Tennessee AAA |
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03-22-19 | Iowa +4 v. Cincinnati | Top | 79-72 | Win | 100 | 17 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on IOWA Cincinnati is fresh off winning the American Tournament, a run they capped by beating top seeded Houston. But even so, the Bearcats haven't been a great team to bet on recently. They're just 2-9 ATS the last 11 games. Now you can say the same for their 1st round opponent, Iowa. The Hawkeyes are 1-9 ATS their previous 10 games. They were blown out by Michigan in the Big 10 Tournament. But Iowa seems to be a good value taking points Friday. They are clearly the superior offensive team here, ranking top 15 in the country in efficiency. They average 78.3 points per game. What we saw against Michigan isn't indicative of the season as a whole. Cincy seems a little disappointed over their seeding (they should be!) and that could affect them mentally here. The Hawkeyes are 9-1 ATS their previous 10 neutral site games. Play on IOWA AAA |
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03-21-19 | Old Dominion v. Purdue -12.5 | Top | 48-61 | Win | 100 | 29 h 29 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on PURDUE Underdogs will get a lot of love the next two days. Several of them will even pull outright upsets. But don't look for that to happen in this game. Purdue should be plenty angry following an early exit in the Big 10 Tournament and should take its frustrations out on an overmatched Old Dominion team. The Monarchs had a good season, winning 26 games, but they struggle to score. In five games played in March, ODU is averaging only 56.4 points per game. That won't cut it here. Not with Purdue averaging 76.2 PPG on the season. Old Dominion's defense can only take them so far against a superior opponent that tied for the Big 10 regular season title. Most don't realize that Purdue finished tied with Michigan State at 16-4 SU in conference play. The Boilermakers are 23-11 ATS their last 34 games. Old Dominion is 0-6 ATS their last six games following an ATS win (they covered in the Conference USA Champ Game) and 0-4 ATS its last four games vs. the Big 10. Play on PURDUE AAA |
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03-21-19 | Seton Hall +2.5 v. Wofford | Top | 68-84 | Loss | -106 | 29 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on SETON HALL Wofford figures to be a pretty popular choice in this game, because everyone likes the "little guy" this time of year. But we like the other side here. Wofford is not the hunter, but rather than hunted in this situation with Seton Hall as the Terriers are both the higher seed and favored. But it's a big step up from the usual competition they face in the Southern Conference. Seton Hall has wins over the likes of Maryland and Kentucky in the non-conference this year. They also beat Villanova and Marquette (twice) late in the regular season, then came within an eyelash of beating Nova again in the Big East Championship Game (lost by 2). All of those teams are seeded higher than Wofford is. Wofford has won 20 in a row, but has also never won a NCAA Tournament game. Seton Hall has covered the spread in five straight games with the only SU loss coming by two points. So they're hot too. The defense that Seton Hall plays is not something Wofford saw often in the SoCon. Also, the Pirates are a perfect 7-0 ATS in neutral site games this season (6-1 straight up). Play on SETON HALL AAA |
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03-21-19 | Flyers v. Blackhawks UNDER 7 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on UNDER Philly-Chicago The Blackhawks have actually gone under in two straight games, which is something that we haven't seen from them in ages. To be precise, the last time it happened was before Thanksgiving! Their Over streak had been the "talk" of bettors in the NHL community as they were a virtually unheard of 24-2-1 to the Over in a 27-game stretch. But that's certainly tapered off with a 3-3-1 mark the last seven games. The tapering off is predictable and will continue tonight when they host the Flyers. Philly had its own streak going for awhile as in an eight-game win streak, but it was all for naught as they're not making the playoffs this year (Chicago probably won't either). The Flyers have scored just three goals in their last two games, one a miraculous 2-1 OT win over Pittsburgh (where they were shutout for the first 59+ minutes of regulation), and the other a 3-1 loss to Montreal. Chicago has scored just two goals in each of its last two games, a shutout of Montreal and one-goal loss to Vancouver. Four of the last five meetings have gone Under including a 4-0 Philly shutout back in November. Look for the Unders to start rolling in now for Chicago. Play UNDER Philadelphia-Chicago AAA |
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03-21-19 | Nuggets -8.5 v. Wizards | Top | 113-108 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on DENVER Washington was going to be in a tough spot here, regardless of last night's outcome. But losing 126-120 in overtime at Chicago was probably Wednesday's least ideal outcome. After Bradley Beal tied the game in the closing seconds of regulation, the Wizards went 0 for 6 from the field in OT. It was their third loss in four games and this one really stung considering how bad the Bulls are and that they were without two of their top players. Now Washington has to deal with Denver, one of the top teams in the league. Sure this one is at home, but the Wizards are just 2-5 ATS their last seven games vs. teams with winning records. The Nuggets come in having won four in a row. They just took care of the Celtics, in Boston, and now trail Golden State by just one-half game for first place in the Western Conference. They've also been off for the last two days. This is probably one of the worst possible opponents for the Nuggets tonight, home or not. Play on DENVER AAA |
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03-21-19 | Yale +7.5 v. LSU | Top | 74-79 | Win | 100 | 20 h 57 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on YALE Yale, champions of the Ivy League, are a solid play here against an LSU team that has lost has its head coach. Will Wade got himself caught up in the NCAA scandal and the Tigers have to go to the Tournament without him. This is a team that overachieved this year. How much credit goes to Wade can be up for debate, but certainly he deserves a large portion. Without Wade, it was an earlier than expected exit for LSU in the SEC Tournament as they got upset by Florida. The Tigers weren't a particularly great defensive team anyway and they give up a lot of offensive rebounds. Yale has scored at least 90 point in six different games this season, including Sunday's Ivy League Final vs. Harvard. I had the Bulldogs in that game and came away quite impressed as six players scored in double figures. Yale is 3-0 straight up and against the spread at neutral sites this year, winning by an average of 11.1 points per game. They can stick with LSU here. Play on YALE AAA |
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03-20-19 | Jets -150 v. Ducks | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 14 h 1 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on WINNIPEG Winnipeg is fighting for first place in the Central Division. Anaheim is a bottom tier team. Who would you choose? The last time these teams played, the Jets won 9-3. While that game took place up in Manitoba, this one won't be much closer. Yes, the Ducks have won six of their last nine games and two straight. Some of those wins have even come against playoff contenders. One was against Nashville, which helped out Winnipeg. But tonight finds Anaheim trying to do something they have not accomplished in three months. That would be win a third straight game. The Jets happen to be on a three-game win streak rignht now and they are 23-14 this season when facing a team that has a losing record. Play on WINNIPEG AAA |
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03-20-19 | Arizona State v. St. John's UNDER 153.5 | Top | 74-65 | Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER St. John's-Arizona State This total just seems too high to us, even though neither team is going to "wow" you defensively. Arizona State has some issues offensively as well. Both members of its starting backcourt are shooting below 41% overall and 33% from three-point land on the season. As a team, the Sun Devils were near the bottom of the Pac 12 in overall field goal percentage. But they make up for that some by allowing opponents to only shoot 41.3%. Their last game, a 79-74 loss to Oregon, would have been a lot lower scoring were it not for overtime. St. John's only scored 54 points the last time it took the floor, shooting 32.8% in an ugly loss to Marquette. For both teams, we usually don't see a total this high. Arizona State has allowed only one of its previous seven opponents to shoot better than 45% and five were held below 42%. Those expecting a shootout tonight should be prepared to be disappointed. Play UNDER Arizona State-St. Johns AAA |
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03-20-19 | Wizards -2 v. Bulls | Top | 120-126 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on WASHINGTON The Wizards are still technically alive in the Eastern Conference playoff race, but on life support. To remain viable, they must win tonight in Chicago. Fortunately, the task should not be that difficult against a Bulls team that is just 8-27 at home and getting consistently hammered. The Bulls did win their last time out, beating Phoenix 116-101 on the road. But before that it was five straight losses, three of them by 16 or more points. The last time these teams played was here in the Windy City and Washington won 134-125 with a similar pointspread. It's a but suspicious as to why the oddsmakers wouldn't have adjusted. At least a little bit. Since that time, the Wizards are just 1-6 on the road and they just lost 116-95 at home to Utah. But they'd also gone 7-1 ATS in the eight games prior to getting blown out by the Jazz. This is a game the Wizards should win with ease. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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03-20-19 | Wizards v. Bulls UNDER 233.5 | Top | 120-126 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Washington-Chicago We're also playing the total on this one. While Washington should be able to put up plenty of points, it's unlikely Chicago will follow suit and thus that should keep the game Under. While they've shot the ball better of late, the Bulls remain the weakest offensive team in the sport. They only average 104.5 points per game at home, which is less than they average on the road. Only three teams average fewer points per game in the entire league. They are also last in efficiency. Though we like the Wizards in this one, it was noted in the analysis for the side that they only scored 95 points - at home - in their last game. It won't take much to win this one. This is an extremely high total, one that won't be reached by either team's "average effort." The Under is 5-0 the last five times Washington has played on exactly one days rest. Play UNDER Wizards-Bulls AAA |
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03-20-19 | Pelicans v. Magic -6.5 | Top | 96-119 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on ORLANDO Orlando needs to take advantage here of a New Orleans team that has basically thrown in the towel on the 2018-19 season. Anthony Davis has been relegated to limited minutes in the wake of his highly publicized trade demand and the team's fortunes essentially sunk right after those demands were made. The Pelicans are officially eliminated from playoff contention in the Western Conference as they've fallen to 11 games below .500. Defense is non-existent here with them allowing 116.1 points per game, which is tied for the most in the West. They've allowed 122 or more points in six straight games. Orlando has held its last two opponents under 100 and its last four all to 105 or less. This will be the Magic's third straight game at home vs. a non-playoff team. They've won the previous two by double digits. The Magic are 7-2 ATS their last nine home games. Play on ORLANDO AAA |
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03-20-19 | Harvard +5.5 v. Georgetown | Top | 71-68 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on HARVARD Harvard came up short in the Ivy League Championship Game, falling to rival Yale. But I see them having an easier time here in the NIT vs. Georgetown, who is just 5-16 ATS its last 21 times hosting a non-conference opponent. The Hoyas' home court and name recognition are what has them favored here, but really they shouldn't be laying more than a couple points to a Harvard side that is every bit their equal. G'town was one and done in the Big East Tournament, losing to Seton Hall 73-57. They also got smoked late in the regular season by DePaul, 101-69. The Hoyas can score (79.9 PPG), but they also give up too many points (78.3 PPG). Harvard should make enough shots to at least stay within the number here and they'd actually won outright the previous four times as a dog before the loss to Yale Sunday (where they led at halftime). Play on HARVARD AAA |
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03-19-19 | Pacers v. Clippers UNDER 219 | Top | 109-115 | Loss | -106 | 15 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER Indiana-LA Clippers The Pacers come off a tough loss last night in Portland as they fell 106-98. The loss prevented Indiana from clinching a playoff spot and it was also their sixth in a row on the road. Things get no easier tonight in LA. Maybe we're starting to see the effect of losing Victor Oladipo as Indiana isn't scoring as many points as they used. Last night marked the third time in the last six games they were held below 100 points. They haven't scored more than 108 in seven straight and only once topped 105 in that stretch of games. The Clippers have had some issues defensively of late and that's cost them at the betting window where they're 0-3 ATS the L3 games. But against an opponent that is playing in the second night of a back to back, we look for LA to turn up the defense tonight. At the same time, Indiana remains the top defensive team in the entire league in terms of scoring as they allow just 103.9 PPG. Play UNDER Indiana-LA Clippers AAA |
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03-19-19 | Nets v. Kings -4 | Top | 123-121 | Loss | -106 | 15 h 44 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on SACRAMENTO One of these teams (Brooklyn) will likely make the playoffs while the other (Sacramento) will not. But a pretty strong case can be made that the non-playoff team is better and the respective designations are simply a byproduct of the two uneven conferences. Sacramento, despite having little shot at making the playoffs, is in a good spot here. They've covered three straight, including a 129-102 win over the Bulls on Sunday. Shockingly, the Kings have been an outstanding bet when favored this season, going 15-4 ATS (17-2 SU). They are favored here to beat a Brooklyn team that seems to have hit a wall. A seven-game road trip has opened with three straight losses as the Nets have fallen to 11-16 SU vs. the Western Conference. Like Sacramento, the Nets typically take care of business when they're favored. They've been favored 24 times and won 20 of those games. But as an underdog, they're just 16-32 SU. With it being a short number, we'll lay it! Play on SACRAMENTO AAA |
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03-19-19 | Nets v. Kings OVER 232 | Top | 123-121 | Win | 100 | 15 h 44 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on OVER Brooklyn-Sacramento We're also playing the Over in this Nets-Kings matchup. As stated in our play on the side, this current road trip has gotten off to bad start for the Nets. They've given up almost 114 PPG in the three losses, but at least they were able to rediscover some offense in the loss to the Clippers Sunday. They scored 116 points in that game and should be right around that number again tonight as Sacramento still gives up about 115 points per game, which is one of the highest figures in the league. But we obviously expect the Kings to score plenty as well. They just scored 129 points in their last game and are averaging 119.5 the last four games. This is a big time revenge game for the Kings, who lost by 29 out in Brooklyn back in January. But what's fascinating about that final result is the Kings actually led 60-55 at halftime. They scored only 34 points total in the second half, something that certainly is unlikely to occur again. Look for the Kings to put two big offensive halves together this time and Brooklyn will score "enough" as well. Play OVER Brooklyn-Sacramento AAA |
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03-19-19 | Belmont v. Temple OVER 155 | Top | 81-70 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Belmont-Temple Belmont can score. The Bruins average 87.4 points per game on nearly 50% shooting. That scoring average is #2 in the entire country, behind only Gonzaga. The shooting percentage is tied for the 4th highest. So expect the OVC's regular season champ to score plenty in this Opening Round matchup vs. Temple. The problem is that the Bruins can't stop anybody. Opponents shot almost 35% from behind the arc in the regular season. They have gone Under in three straight games, but those games all had higher totals than this one. The number here looks a little low for playing a Temple team that has scored at least 70 points in every game since February 13th. Belmont doesn't force many turnovers. Something else to consider - Temple is an outstanding free throw shooting team as is Belmont. Play OVER Belmont-Temple AAA |
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03-19-19 | Bruins v. Islanders UNDER 5.5 | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on UNDER Boston-NY Islanders The Islanders have the division lead in the Metro, but they will certainly be more than tested tonight by Boston, who is the second place team in the Atlantic. Both teams are off one-goal decisions over the weekend. The Bruins beat Columbus 2-1 while New York beat Minnesota 3-2. But perhaps the most interesting part of this battle is that it pits two of the top three teams in the league in goals allowed against one another. The Islanders lead the league with an average of just 2.33 goals allowed per game. But the Bruins are right behind, allowing just 2.53. So expecting this to be a low-scoring game sounds quite reasonable. In the last four games, the Islanders have only given up five goals. All four games finished Under. Boston is 10-4 Under this year playing on the road when the total is 5.5. They are also 23-12 Under when facing a team that has a winning record. Play UNDER Boston-NY Islanders AAA |
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03-18-19 | Jets -170 v. Kings | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 7* play on WINNIPEG A complete mismatch here as the Jets invade LA to play the Kings. One team is fighting for a division title while the other is a total non-contender that has been at the bottom of the standings all year. Winnipeg is obviously the former as they can increase their lead in the Central to three points over Nashville with a win here. It's a win that should come pretty easily considering Los Angeles has won only two games since February 7th. In their last four home games, the Kings have been outscored 14-5. No team has scored fewer goals or been outscored by a larger margin. Winnipeg is off back to back impressive wins as they beat Boston and San Jose. The next three games will all be on the road before hosting Nashville in a huge Central Division showdown. This one and the next game (at Anaheim) should be an easy four points. We really like the Jets tonight. Play on WINNIPEG AAA |
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03-18-19 | Warriors v. Spurs UNDER 224 | Top | 105-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on UNDER Golden State-San Antonio San Antonio has won nine in a row, but will be hosting Golden State tonight on ESPN. The Spurs win streak makes this quite the marquee matchup. We actually give them a slight edge given their incredible 13-0 ATS record this season when playing at home with revenge for a loss where they surrendered 110 or more points. The Warriors killed the Spurs last month, winning 141-102 out in Oakland. Don't see the Warriors coming close to that number tonight. Also, Under has been the way to go with both of these teams lately. Eight of the Spurs last nine games have stayed Under, including one we played, Saturday's night's win over Portland. Golden State is 7-0 Under its last seven games. They just held OKC to 88 points in a tremendous defensive effort. This will be a low-scoring affair in our eyes as the Under is 4-1 the past five meetings here in San Antonio. Play UNDER Golden State-San Antonio AAA |
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03-18-19 | Jazz -4 v. Wizards | Top | 116-95 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on UTAH Utah comes to Washington D.C. in search of a win and should get it at the expense of the struggling Wizards. The Jazz have won and covered each of their last three games. While all three games were against lesser opponents, they did win by double digits every time. All three wins were by at least 16 points, including a wire to wire beatdown of Brooklyn on Saturday. Washington has actually gone 7-1 ATS its last eight games and just put up 135 points in a surprising performance against Memphis two days ago. But it's been a long time since they were able to beat the Jazz. The last five meetings have all gone Utah's way and this one will too, by a rather comfortable margin, considering how poor the Wizards are defensively. Utah has covered 7 of its last 9 games vs. teams with losing records. Play on UTAH AAA |
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03-18-19 | Jazz v. Wizards OVER 228 | Top | 116-95 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER Utah-Washington Also playing the total of this one. Given Washington's last game ended up having a final score of 135-128, it should be fairly obvious which way we'll be going. Yes, Utah is a very good defensive team. But so is Memphis, who the Wizards just scored 135 points against. The Grizzlies, believe it or not, actually came into that game leading the league in scoring defense. So while they may not put up as many points tonight, the Wiz should certainly be able to score plenty. So should Utah, who we have winning this game comfortably. The Jazz have scored at least 114 points in three straight games, all of those being games where they both won and covered. All three games actually went Under too, thanks to the Jazz allowing 97, 100 and 98 points. Washington will definitely score more than that tonight, but will also give up their fair share too. In seven of the last eight games, the Wizards have allowed 112 or more points. Play OVER Utah-Washington AAA |
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03-17-19 | Flyers v. Penguins OVER 6.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -140 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Philly-Pittsburgh Look for this to be a wild and high-scoring affair. We've reached the point where every team basically has just games left to play and the Penguins have to be feeling a lot better about their playoff prospects while the Flyers should be feeling worse about theirs. Pittsburgh did lose Saturday afternoon, 5-1 to St. Louis. But despite the home loss, they are still third in the Metro (87 points) and are seven clear of ninth place Montreal. Philly is now eight points out of the Wild Card race after dropping back to back games. They allowed a combined 12 goals to Washington and Toronto. We had the Over in the game vs. the Leafs, which was a 7-6 loss. Should be a similar game tonight as this will be the third straight top seven offense the Flyers have had to face. Before yesterday's loss, the Penguins had scored 14 goals in three games, all wins. The Flyers haven't seen many Unders since the All Star Break as the Over is 9-2-1 their past 12 games. Again, they scored six goals in their last game and the Pens just gave up five yesterday. Play OVER Philadelphia-Pittsburgh AAA |
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03-17-19 | Cincinnati v. Houston -4.5 | Top | 69-57 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on HOUSTON Houston blew the cover late on Saturday, letting a double digit lead slip away against Memphis. They had kept the Tigers in check the entire game, never allowing them to get above 25% from the field! But the Cougars had their own scoreless stretch, for about four minutes, as they missed 10 straight shots and that let Memphis pull within three. As upset as we are about Houston not covering yesterday (we had them), it was still an impressive win when you consider the defensive performance and that it was a true road game (tournament is being played in Memphis). Memphis had lost only twice at home all season. Today they face a Cincinnati team that also won by three Saturday. The Bearcats beat Wichita State, coming back from a halftime deficit. Houston beat Cincy twice in the regular season, winning by 7 and 16. They are the better team here and unlike yesterday won't have to deal with a hostile crowd and it's a shorter number. The Bearcats have covered the spread just one time in their last 10 games. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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03-17-19 | Hornets +4 v. Heat | Top | 75-93 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on CHARLOTTE Miami really let one slip away Friday night. They were facing Milwaukee and up by 20 points at halftime. This was at home too. The Bucks were 1-100 SU all-time when trailing by 20+ at the half, including 0-77 on the road. The Heat were 51-0 SU all-time when leading by that much at half, here at home. Guess what? They lost 113-98, becoming the 1st team in league history to be up 20 at the half and still lose by 15. It's going to be very difficult to get over that loss. Now in comes Charlotte, who directly gained from the Heat's pain. Also on Friday, Charlotte beat Washington to pull within one game of Miami, who holds the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. The Hornets have some revenge on the mind Sunday as they just lost at home to Miami, 91-84, on March 6th. It's important to note that the Heat actually play worse at home (where they have a losing SU record) as opposed to the road. They are just 4-9 ATS the last 13 games at home. They are 2-9 ATS their previous 11 division games. We say to take the points here. Play on CHARLOTTE AAA |
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03-17-19 | Yale -4.5 v. Harvard | Top | 97-85 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on YALE One of the oldest rivalries in collegiate sports is renewed here and the stakes couldn't be much higher. Yale and Harvard will play Sunday with the winner moving on to represent the Ivy League in the NCAA Tournament. The two teams tied for the regular season title, both finishing 10-4 SU in conference play, but Yale was three games better overall. However, the key was Harvard winning both of the regular season games. That gave them the #1 seed entering this Tournament. It also gives Yale double revenge and note they are the betting favorite Sunday. Yale beat Princeton Sunday in the semifinals by a score of 83-77. They led by 12 at halftime and won easily. Harvard had a little more trouble against Penn, even though their final margin of victory (8) was actually larger than Yale's. The Crimson only led by two at halftime though. We think the oddsmakers are making it pretty clear that they think Yale is the better team here and we're inclined to agree. Harvard did sweep the season series, but they also had three OT wins in Ivy League play. Yale is basically +8.0 PPG vs. the Ivy League while Harvard is less than +2.0. Play on YALE AAA |
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03-16-19 | Blazers v. Spurs UNDER 227 | Top | 103-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* Play on UNDER Blazers-Spurs Both teams played last night. Both games went Under the total. Portland won theirs 122-110 (yes that was an Under) as they beat New Orleans, who didn't have Anthony Davis. San Antonio had no problem either, beating the Knicks 109-83. For the Spurs, it was the seventh Under in the last eight games. Portland has gone Under in two straight after five consecutive Overs. The Blazers have scored more than 120 points in four straight, but that streak figures to end this evening in the Alamo. The Over has cashed in 23 of the previous 31 meetings, including all three this season. But that changes tonight with both in the second game of a back to back. Portland is 7-2 Under in this situation this season. Play UNDER Blazers-Spurs AAA |
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03-16-19 | Capitals v. Lightning UNDER 7 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -135 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Capitals-Lightning We know it might be a little scary to bet the Under on these teams, let alone when they're playing one another, but the total is too high for such an important late season matchup. Tampa Bay has been coasting towards another Atlantic Division title for awhile now and barring something unforeseen, they will be the top overall seed in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Washington is trying to win the Metropolitan, which is a much tighter race. They lead going into Saturday, but by only two points over the Islanders and four over the Penguins. The Caps allowed five goals in a loss to Pittsburgh before scoring five in a win over the Flyers this week. Tampa Bay has scored 11 goals its last two games. But despite these gaudy numbers, we're still going Under in the first meeting between these teams since last year's Eastern Conference Final. Only one of the seven games in that series saw more than six goals scored. Washington is 15-8 this season following a win by two or more goals. Tampa Bay is giving up only 2.4 goals per game on home ice. Play UNDER Washington-Tampa Bay AAA |
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03-16-19 | Grizzlies +3 v. Wizards | Top | 128-135 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on MEMPHIS Memphis is catching points and catching Washington in the second game of a back to back tonight. That's a combo that works in their favor. The Wizards lost last night, falling 116-110 to Charlotte right here at home. Bradley Beal scored 40 points, but the Wizards were down 14 at the end of the first quarter and 17 heading into the fourth. Memphis is rested as they've been off for two days and likely motivated considering they were torched for 132 points by Atlanta of all teams in their last game. Going into that game, the Grizzlies were #1 in the league in scoring defense. It was the most points they allowed in any game all year. A bounce back seems likely given the way they had been playing. Memphis is 4-2 SU/5-1 ATS this month with wins over both Portland and Utah. Play on MEMPHIS AAA |
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03-16-19 | Memphis v. Houston -8 | Top | 58-61 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on HOUSTON Memphis is quite fortunate the the American Tournament is being played on its home court, the FedEx Forum. The Tigers have been beaten only twice this year at home. Yesterday saw them ride a wave of momentum as they dominated likely NCAA Tourney team UCF, winning by a score of 79-55. But today they run into the best team that the American has to offer, that being top seed Houston, who has lost just two times all year period. The Cougars destroyed UConn on Friday, winning 84-45 as 11.5-point favoirtes. They beat Memphis in the lone regular season matchup by a score of 90-77. While that was at home, we think this team is more than capable of doing the same on the road. The Cougars are 9-1 ATS this season if they allowed 25 points or less in the first half of their previous games. They held UConn to exactly 25. Then they allowed only 20 in the second half, holding the Huskies scoreless for 13 minutes at one point. Houston is well rested as no starter played more than 30 minutes Friday. Memphis is playing its third game in three days. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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03-16-19 | Wisconsin v. Michigan State -5 | Top | 55-67 | Win | 100 | 5 h 43 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on MICHIGAN STATE While the lower half of the draw featured an upset (Minnesota beating Purdue), the top half of the Big 10 Tournament features the expected semfinal battle between #1 seed Michigan State and #4 seed Wisconsin. The Spartans won yesterday, beating Ohio State 77-70. They did not cover as double digit favorites. Wisconsin ousted Nebraska 66-62, but they didn't cover either. Both teams got off to fast starts Friday before failing to cover. Michigan State won the only regular season meeting, 62-59, and that was in Madison. Of interest is the fact the Spartans have now scored more than 75 points in three consecutive games. They are 10-1 ATS when doing that this season. Of the two teams, they looked better yesterday. They were up by as many as 21 in the second half. Nick Ward is now back after missing five games due to a broken hand. He contributed eight points in 14 minutes against Ohio State. We feel MSU is the better team here and they'll show it today. Play on MICHIGAN STATE AAA |
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03-15-19 | Bulls v. Clippers UNDER 229 | Top | 121-128 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER Bulls-Clippers Too high of a total for a game involving the Bulls, who rank last in the league in offensive efficiency and are averaging only 105 points per game. Obviously, it's quite possible the Clippers could "go off" tonight. But will they? We think not. They only scored 104 points in their last game, which was a blowout loss to Portland. Also, were this game to get out of hand, it's very likely that scoring would grind to a halt from LA's perspective. The Under is 4-0 the last four times the Clippers have taken the court off a double digit loss at home. Chicago hasn't scored more than 108 points in any of its last five games. Opponents field goal percentage has been a concern of late, but we project them as being better on the defensive end tonight. Play UNDER Chicago-LA Clippers AAA |
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03-15-19 | Duke -3 v. North Carolina | Top | 74-73 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on DUKE To say North Carolina was "gifted" a couple wins over Duke in the regular season might be too much. But you can't deny the Tar Heels caught a massive break in each game. The first one was the infamous Zion Williamson injury and an obviously shell-shocked Blue Devils team went down in defeat, 88-72. Incredibly, the rematch saw another major Duke injury take place early in the game. This one was to Marques Bolden. The result was another loss for the Blue Devils. Bolden will not play in the ACC Tournament, but in case you hadn't heard (unlikely), Williamson is back and he was awesome in last night's 84-72 win over Syracuse. The freshman made all 13 shots he attempted and pulled down 14 rebounds as well. All shoe problems appear rectified. The idea that Duke is going to lose to North Carolina three times this year seems far-fetched to us. All we need to do is lay a small spread here and I think the Blue Devils are on a mission to prove they still deserve a #1 seed. With Williamson in the lineup this year, Duke has lost just one time in regulation. It was by two points to Gonzaga, in Maui. This isn't Maui. It's the ACC Tournament, an event Coach K has owned through the years. Play on DUKE AAA |
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03-15-19 | Colorado v. Washington -1.5 | Top | 61-66 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on WASHINGTON Colorado has had to play each of the last two days, putting them at a distinct disadvantage here in the Pac 12 semifinals against top seeded Washington. The Huskies had a closer than expected call (for some!) against USC yesterday afternoon, but we took the underdog in that one, noting the Trojans were a better team than most realized. They showed that by sticking with favored UW despite the Huskies playing very well. UW made 13 of 28 three-pointers and led by double digits in the second half, before USC went on a late run. Because the final score ended up being close, we're getting a relative gift from the oddsmakers today in only having to lay a small number against a team play for a third time in as many days. Washington is very good defensively, ranking inside the top 20 nationally in points allowed per 100 possessions. They beat Colorado in both regular season games, winning by seven and nine points. The Buffaloes were hardly impressive in Wednesday's five point win over California. They got off to a great start yesterday vs. Oregon State, building a lead as big as 21 points. But they almost blew it and we think they're officially set to run out of gas tonight. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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03-15-19 | Ducks v. Avalanche -190 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -190 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 6* play on COLORADO We don't think that whomever ends up as the two Wild Cards in the Western Conference will be a threat to go deep into the Stanley Cup Playoffs. But someone has to grab the two spots. Right now, 77 points is the threshold, so Colorado (72 points) is really in must-win territory the rest of the way. Good news for the Avs tonight as they are catching Anaheim in the second night of back to back road games. Thursday didn't go well for the Ducks as they lost 6-1 at Arizona. Tonight's game doesn't figure to go any better. The Ducks have scored the fewest goals in the league this year. Having been shutout twice in their last three games, including the last one, look for the Avs to break loose tonight. They're well rested, having last taken the ice on Monday. From a situational perspective, this is one of the bigger mismatches we've see in the NHL in awhile. It's a spot Colorado MUST take advantage of, playing at home. Anaheim is one of the worst teams in the NHL. Play on COLORADO AAA |
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03-15-19 | Flyers v. Maple Leafs OVER 6.5 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Philly-Toronto This promises to be a high-scoring game. Both teams gave up five goals in their last game. In the case of Toronto, they allowed four in the first period, the first time they've done that at home since 2008. I was on Chicago, so that was a pretty sweet winner even though it got a little interesting late in the game. (The Maple Leafs ended up battling back with four goals of their own). Philly was never really in their game last night vs. Washington, which ended up being a 5-2 loss. Seven of the last nine Flyers games have gone Over the total. It's eight of 10 for Toronto, who has let in 11 goals in just the last two games. The Maple Leafs average 3.6 goals per game at home to begin with and put up six the only other time they hosted Philly this season. Both teams should score at least three times tonight. Play OVER Philadelphia-Toronto AAA |
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03-15-19 | Florida v. LSU -2 | Top | 76-73 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 2 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on LSU Florida turned in a strong second half performance in beating Arkansas 66-50 on Thursday afternoon. The Razorbacks failed to make a single basket over the game's final 7:54. The Gators "reward" for winning that game is a quarterfinal date with the SEC's top seed LSU. These teams split a pair of games in the regular season. Both went to overtime and both times the road team emerged victorious. With LSU head coach Will Wade on leave (due to the NCAA scandal), we think public sentiment will be against the Tigers. But don't make that mistake. LSU has been defying skeptics this entire season. They are 26-5 overall, 16-2 in SEC play and have won five straight games (5-0 ATS too!). Their two conference losses were a one-point loss to Arkansas and the OT loss to Florida. Florida had lost three in a row before yesterday's win. LSU is a perfect 7-0 ATS this season in games where the line is three points or less. Obviously, the fact the Tigers had off yesterday while Florida had to play a game is a huge benefit. Play on LSU. AAA |
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03-14-19 | Predators -185 v. Kings | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 6* play on NASHVILLE It's rare to find Nashville off a loss or Los Angeles off a win. But both situations are present here as those two teams meet in Staples Center Thursday night. The Predators, who are in first place in the Central, have actually lost two in a row. One was at home to Carolina and the other was at Anaheim. The likelihood of them losing three straight and back to back games against two of the worst teams in the league seems small. The Kings last won back to back games in early February when they won three straight, all on the road, two of them coming in overtime. Since then they've lost 13 out of 15 games. It was Anaheim they beat Sunday. They have not beaten a team in playoff contention since prior to the All Star Break. The Kings are second to last in the league in goals scored while Nashville is 5th in goals allowed. This should be an easy two points for the Preds. Play on NASHVILLE AAA |
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03-14-19 | Canadiens v. Islanders UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER Montreal-NY Islanders The Habs and Islanders, especially the Islanders, are two of the biggest surprise teams in the league this year. Few thought either would be playoff bound coming into the season, let alone the possibility of both making it. Both are coming off wins and between them, they allowed just one goal. The Islanders shutout Columbus 2-0 and are in second place in the Metropolitan with 87 points. Montreal beat Detroit 3-1 to move into a tie with Columbus for the final Wild Card spot. So this is a big game. The Islanders lead the league in goals allowed with only 168. That's 12 fewer than every other team but one (Dallas). Montreal is middle of the pack in goals scored and goals allowed (14th in both categories), but ranks dead last on the power play, which is a problem. Because they rank only 20th in goals per game, NY is one of the top Under teams in the league. The Canadiens will have Carey Price in goal tonight and he has solid career numbers vs. the Islanders. This should be a very low-scoring game. Play UNDER Montreal-NY Islanders AAA |
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03-14-19 | Thunder v. Pacers UNDER 222 | Top | 106-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER OKC-INDIANA These are two of the better defensive teams in the league. Both are top five in efficiency. Indiana is #2 in scoring, giving up just 103.9 points per game. Oklahoma City held Brooklyn under 100 points last evening, a crucial win for them. Coupled with Houston's loss to Golden State, the Thunder have moved back into a third place tie with the Rockets out West. In the East, the Pacers are trying to track down the three seed themselves. Expect a competitive game tonight and not many points scored. It wasn't just last night that OKC turned up the heat defensively. As already noted, this is a top five team in defensive efficiency. Before holding Brooklyn to 96 points last night, they held Utah to just 89 the game before that. They've gone Under in three straight. Indiana has either allowed or scored less than 100 in four straight, all Unders as well. The Under is 8-2 in Oklahoma CIty's last 10 games overall. Indiana is the #2 Under team in the league right now, trailing only Memphis. Play UNDER Oklahoma City-Indiana AAA |
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03-14-19 | South Alabama v. UL - Lafayette -2.5 | Top | 70-69 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on LOUISIANA The Sun Belt Tournament format is one that greatly favors the top seeds. The top two teams only have to win once to make the Final. The #3 and #4 seeds need to win only twice to get there. Everyone else is facing an uphill climb, including a South Alabama team that would have to win FOUR times just to make the Final. We certainly don't see that happening. The Jaguars had little trouble getting by Arkansas State in the opening round (won 75-67) and got a day off prior to today's matchup. But UL Lafayette has played well this last month. The Ragin Cajuns are 6-2 straight up their last eight games and 7-1 ATS. What if I told you that they are one of the nation's highest scoring teams? They are, averaging 82.0 points per game! It was a high-scoring game when these teams met in the regular season. Louisiana won 88-84. South Alabama is unlikely to score that many again (they average 73.2 PPG) and is surprisingly not getting much help from the oddsmakers here. We were surprised at how low this number was when it opened. Play on LOUISIANA AAA |
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03-14-19 | USC +5 v. Washington | Top | 75-78 | Win | 100 | 6 h 9 m | Show |
This is an 8* winner on USC USC looked impressive yesterday in beating Arizona 78-65 and we think that that'll carry over into today's Pac 12 quarterfinal battle with top seed Washington. The Trojans went off as 2-pt dogs against Arizona. The Pac 12 was not good this year. Washington was the "best" team, but that's not saying much. The Huskies were not particularly impressive down the stretch either. They turned in a "dud" showing in the last regular season game, losing 55-47 to Oregon at home. They also lost to a terrible Cal team two weeks ago. Looking at their two wins in the past four games, one came in overtime and the other by only 1 point. This is one of the weakest top seeds in any conference tournament. Led by Bennie Boatright's 22 points and 11 rebounds, USC turned in an 18-2 run in each half yesterday. The Trojans never led in a 75-62 loss to UW in the regular season, but that game was played in Seattle and the Huskies looked a lot better at the time than they do now. Play on USC AAA |
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03-14-19 | Indiana -2 v. Ohio State | Top | 75-79 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 42 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on INDIANA The Hoosiers were an excellent team to bet down the stretch as they've covered six straight games. They've won the last four straight up as well, including upsets of both Wisconsin and Michigan State. It was a much different finish to the regular season for Ohio State. The Byckeyes are 0-3 both straight up and against the spread in March. Now a large part of that had to do with the fact they were without leading scorer (and rebounder) Kaleb Wesson, who was suspended. Wesson will return for the Big 10 Tourney, but it may be a case of "too little, too late" for the Buckeyes. Indiana has legit revenge here for a three-point loss in the regular season. They shot very poorly in that game and we don't think that'll be the case this afternoon. Both of these teams finished with 8-12 SU records in Big 10 play, so they're lucky to even be in the NCAA Tournament discussion. The loser here is done. The difference between Indiana and Ohio State is that the former was able to beat good teams, including Michigan State twice. IU gets it done here. Play on INDIANA AAA |
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03-13-19 | North Texas v. Florida International +3 | Top | 71-57 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on FIU This is a first round matchup in Conference USA's Tournament. The way I see it, the only reason North Texas is still favored has to do with the way they started the season (16-2 through 18 games). Because the Mean Green definitely didn't end the season well. They've lost seven straight games and didn't cover the spread in any of them either. Their most recent loss was to a team they'll play again today, that being FIU, who just won 73-58 over UNT on Saturday. That was the second time the Panthers beat the Mean Green in the last month as they also prevailed by a score of 69-59 back on Feb 16th. Both games were in Miami due to the weird way C-USA did its schedule this year. But the Panthers finished the year at 19-12, winning and covering five of the last six games. North Texas is just 1-10 ATS vs. teams with winning records. Their poor form can't be overlooked here. Play on FIU AAA |
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03-13-19 | Pistons +1.5 v. Heat | Top | 74-108 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on DETROIT On Monday, the Pistons chose a poor time to turn in their worst effort in months. They were dominated from start to finish by the Nets in a 103-75 loss. That cost them sixth place in the Eastern Conference, perhaps a meaningless distinction, but beating the teams you're competing with for playoff positioning is important this time of year. It's a similar matchup for Wednesday as the Pistons travel to Miami. The Heat are in 8th place right now, three games back of the Pistons. But that precious "breathing room" isn't something Detroit wants to be conceding right now. The good news is the Pistons haven't dropped back to back games since the All Star Break. They've gone 12-3 SU the last 15 games and the last time they were off a loss, they responded with a 129-93 win, on the road no less. Miami has actually played worse at home this year (15-19 SU) than on the road (16-16) and just gave up 125 points on almost 57% shooting Sunday to Toronto. So Detroit should shoot a lot better here than they did vs. Brooklyn, a game they finished 27% from the field. The previous three games all saw them shoot better than 53.5%. The Pistons are the better team here. Play on DETROIT AAA |
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03-13-19 | Blackhawks +1.5 v. Maple Leafs | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the PUCK LINE with CHICAGO +1.5 Taking into account recent battles between these former Norris Division rivals, taking the +1.5 seems like a real smart thing to do. The last five times the Blackhawks and Maple Leafs have played, the game has gone past regulation. That makes the +1.5 a winner every time. This time, Chicago is a big underdog on the money line, but you have to wonder why considering they have won 14 of their past 20 games, including three straight. The Blackhawks just dominated Arizona 7-1 for their biggest win (in terms of goal differential) all season. Given their recent level of scoring, it's going to be hard to beat them by multiple goals. There have been 11 times since January 20th where Chicago has scored at least four goals in a game. Conversely, there have been only three times in that stretch where they scored fewer than three. Toronto is one of the East's top teams, but they just suffered a demoralizing loss here at home to Tampa Bay where they conceded six goals. The Blackhawks won't do any worse than a one-goal loss here. Play CHICAGO on the PUCK LINE AAA |
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03-13-19 | Massachusetts v. George Washington +4.5 | Top | 64-68 | Win | 100 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on GEORGE WASHINGTON The Atlantic 10 Tournament is heavily slanted to the top four teams (double byes) so GW and UMass both have uphill climbs. The lower seed is actually favored in this one, which is interesting because GW won the only regular season meeting. They did so 79-67 as 2.5 point home underdogs. That represents the Colonials only win in the last 10 games. Can they beat UMass again? Sure, why not. At the very worst they should still cover. UMass has been terrible as a favorite, going 3-12 ATS this year. They've lost nine of the games straight up. Even more damning is that the Minutemen are not just 1-7 ATS as a favorite in conference play, but also 1-7 straight up. You just don't want to be caught laying points with this group. We'll be honest in that GW isn't much better. But they are not this many points worse. Play on GEORGE WASHINGTON AAA |
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03-12-19 | Arkansas State v. South Alabama UNDER 142 | Top | 67-75 | Push | 0 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on UNDER Arkansas State-South Alabama We probably shouldn't be expecting very much from either Arkansas State or South Alabama in the Sun Belt Tournament, but one of them is going to advance to tomorrow's quarterfinals. Playing at home, South Alabama is rightfully favored to move on, but this isn't a game where you'd want to play the pointspread. The two regular season meetings were both low scoring games with the home team winning both times - by scores of 66-65 and 70-62. We don't see any reason why more points should be expected in the rubber match, let alone a double digit increase in scoring. While Arkansas State did just give up 90 points to Coastal Carolina on Saturday, that game went to overtime. South Alabama is allowing an average of just 68.7 PPG at home this season. The Under is 7-0 in the Jaguars' previous seven Tuesday games, for whatever that's worth. Play UNDER Arkansas State-South Alabama AAA |
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03-12-19 | Knicks v. Pacers -11.5 | Top | 98-103 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on INDIANA It certainly looks like it will be a tough three-way fight for the #3 seed in the Eastern Conference between Indiana, Philadelphia and Boston. Getting that #3 seed is crucial, not only for the home court advantage in the 1st round of playoffs, but it also allows that team to avoid playing either of the other two teams in question. Indiana has done itself no favors by losing its last two games, but they have a certified "layup" tonight when they host the league-worst Knicks. The two games that the Pacers just lost both came on the road and were against Milwaukee and Philadelphia. At home, this team is 25-9 SU and holding opponents to almost 100 PPG (100.1 to be exact). I expect the Pacers offense to be MUCH better tonight than it was against the Bucks and Sixers, who both held them under 100 points. The Knicks are atrocious defensively as they give up 114.5 PPG on the road. After winning three of four surrounding the All Star Break, New York has reverted to its losing ways by dropping six straight games. They've been held below 100 in three straight and those games were against teams that aren't even good defensively. The three teams (Suns, Kings, Timberwolves) all actually rank in the bottom 10 in points allowed. The Knicks have lost 38 of their last 43 games. Play on INDIANA AAA |
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03-12-19 | Cavs v. 76ers UNDER 223.5 | Top | 99-106 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Cavs-76ers The Cavs turned in a real stunner last night as they beat the Raptors 126-101. But that was in Cleveland. Tonight they travel to Philly to face a Sixers team that is not only very good at home, but also has gone Under in seven straight contests. In their last game, which was at home, Philly gave up only 89 points. Even though they just scored 126 points, Cleveland is not a real offensive threat. They are last in the Eastern Conference in points per game. Now defensively, there are concerns with this Cavaliers team. In their previous road game, they let the Heat shoot 57% and scored 126 points. But the Sixers have been held to an average of just 107 points their last three contests and have shot poorly in each of last two. Joel Embiid is back and did have 33 points in his return Sunday. But no one else could really make a shot. Look for the Sixers' Under streak to continue. Play UNDER Cleveland-Philadelphia AAA |
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03-12-19 | Capitals v. Penguins -131 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 9* play on PITTSBURGH This is a massive game for the Penguins. We think its crucial for them to finish in the top three in the Metropolitan and thus avoid either division winner in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Right now, they are tied for third place with Carolina at 83 points. Washington leads the division with 89 points and has won its last seven games. But they've gotten to play Ottawa, Philadelphia, New Jersey and the Rangers twice during the win streak, so really all they've done is take advantage of a favorable schedule. Pittsburgh just snapped Boston's 19-game point streak with a 4-2 win Sunday. They have gone 9-3-2 the last 14 games themselves with 27 goals scored in the last eight games. Each side figures to start its top goaltender in this one and both Matt Murray and Braden Holtby have been exceptional of late. With Pittsburgh 36-15 their last 51 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150 though, they get the nod tonight on home ice. Play on PITTSBURGH AAA |
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03-12-19 | Pittsburgh -1 v. Boston College | Top | 80-70 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on PITT Pitt had a lousy year in the ACC, but at least the regular season ended on a high note as they beat Notre Dame 56-53 Saturday. The Panthers still enter the ACC Tournament as the lowest possible seed (14th), but they are favored to win their first game. Having taken this team Saturday, I'll back them again here as I don't think they're nearly as bad as their record. B.C. comes into the ACC Tourney having lost three in a row and they were terrible in a 73-47 home loss to N.C. State on Saturday. The Eagles did win a pair of games in last year's ACC Tourney, but we don't see that happening again. They did beat Pitt in the only regular season meeting, 66-57, but that was in Chesnut Hill. The Panthers are the better three-point shooting team here. Look for that to be the difference tonight. Play on PITTSBURGH AAA |
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03-11-19 | Ohio +4 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 61-80 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OHIO Ohio did not have a particularly good regular season, but it ended on a high note with the Bobcats covering the spread in the last five games. They won three of them straight up and the two losses were by a combined eight points. So, for us, they're an attractive bet tonight getting points against Northern Illinois. This is a home game for NIU but they've lost 7 of 10 and none of the three wins were by more than seven points. The last two were both on the road and were upsets. The last three times the Huskies have been favored, they lost outright all three times. Now the last instance of them covering as chalk was here at home against Ohio. But the Bobcats actually led that game with seven minutes to go. They also lost to NIU in Athens, so it's a big-time revenge factor here. With both teams having been involved in so many close games this season, it seems only logical to side with the team getting points. There's just not much difference between the two sides and Ohio has played better of late. Northern Illinois is 0-5 ATS its last five home games. Play on OHIO AAA |