This is a 10* on SACRAMENTO

When these teams opened the season against one another, the Suns would prevail in one-sided fashion, 124-95 as a 1-point home favorite. That was the first of seven consecutive covers by Phoenix to start the year. But a lot has changed since then. The Suns are now just 2-3 SU and ATS since that 7-game ATS win streak. They lost last night at home to Boston, getting held to a season-low 85 points. At no point in the second half were they closer than nine points.  Another thing that has changed from the first time around is Sacramento's play. They started 0-5 SU and ATS but have gone 5-2 SU and 7-0 ATS in November. They just beat Boston on Sunday, 100-99. They did so without De'Aaron Fox or Marvin Bagley Jr. The Celtics had won 10 in a row going into that game and are now obviously 11-1 their last 12 after being the Suns yesterday. Two absences on the Phoenix side are huge here. Deandre Ayton, who was last year's top draft pick, is suspended. Ricky Rubio was a late scratch last night due to back spasms and the offense did not look the same without him running the show. With the Suns in a back to back, the situation is much better for the Kings tonight. Play on SACRAMENTO

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This is a 10* on MONTANA STATE

Montana State has covered all of its games this year while Grand Canyon hasn't covered any. That makes this line pretty strange. We're not saying the home team shouldn't be favored, but giving this many points is a definite reach in our estimation. Montana State (4-1 SU, 4-0 ATS) has been winning games close and in low-scoring fashion, but that still makes them a dangerous dog. Their only loss was by eight to a Utah State team that is now ranked 14th the country. Since that loss, the Bobcats have given up an average of 55.2 points/game. Their last win was against Tennessee Tech and they allowed only 39 points! Needless to say, if this string of impressive defensive efforts continues tonight, it'll mean an easy cover and they'll probably take the game outright. Grand Canyon is 1-3 and has lost to a Division II team (Davenport University) here at home. They just won for the first time this season, beating Arkansas Pine-Bluff 67-54, but they were favored by 15.5 points. Not a good start for the Antelopes. An area where they are really struggling is behind the three-point arc. There they are shooting just 25.0% in four games. That's trouble seeing how well Montana State has defended so far. The Bobcats have allowed just 25% three-point shooting. Bad line set by the oddsmakers in this one. Play on MONTANA STATE

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This is a 10* on CAROLINA

Two hot teams are set to meet in the Windy City. Carolina comes in on a three-game win streak. Chicago has won four in a row. Both teams have scored plenty of goals during the respective win streaks. The Hurricanes have found the back of the net 17 times in the last three games while the Blackhawks have scored 21 goals in four games. This has the makings of another high-scoring affair, but we think only one side is likely to hold up its end of the bargain. There was a meeting in Raleigh earlier this year, which the Canes won 4-0. Since then, a decision was made by Chicago to "go young" i.e. putting several of its prospects in prominent positions. It's worked so far, but it's long-term effect is still unknown. Both teams have given up 59 goals in 20 games. But Carolina has scored nine more times than Chicago this year (70 vs. 61). The Hurricanes also allow far less shots per game. They allow the third fewest number of shots in the league. Chicago allows the most. Carolina is the call here. Play on CAROLINA

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This is an 8* on DALLAS

Vancouver has cooled off a lot. Their only win in the last seven games came at home. It was a 5-3 decision against Nashville exactly one week ago. As for Dallas, things have swung in a much different direction for them recently. They've gone 7-0-1 the last eight games and 10-1-1 the last 12. These teams just met in Vancouver with the Stars winning 4-2 as +130 underdogs. That was part of a 3-0 sweep through Western Canada for Dallas. They finished things off with a 5-4 overtime win against Edmonton on Saturday. Right now, everything seems to be going their way. Vancouver has actually won three straight times here in Dallas, but that's a streak we don't see continuing. The Canucks are 0-4 this season when seeking revenge for a home loss and 16-34 their last 50 in this situation. Dallas is 5-0 this year when playing on two days rest. Play on DALLAS

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This is an 8* on IOWA STATE

Iowa State hasn't had the easiest start to the year as they've already lost once (at Oregon State), but tonight vs. Southern Miss should be a blowout. The Cyclones last played one week ago today when they beat Northern Illinois 70-52 as a 14-point favorite. That was here in Ames as well. Southern Miss has lost two in a row, both close games on the road. They lost six to South Alabama and then by three to North Florida. While the Golden Eagles still covered the spread each time, tonight is a third straight road game and their toughest opponent to date. This hardly seems like a good spot for them. The Cyclones actually trailed Northern Illinois at halftime last Tuesday. But that was due to some truly awful three-point shooting and a lack of rebounding. Both issues were quickly rectified in the second half when they outscored their opponents 39-18. We look for more of a "full game effort" tonight. ISU may be a young team, but they aren't turning the ball over much. Only 12.5% of their offensive possessions have ended in a turnover. That's 7th best in the country. Meanwhile, 22.5% of Southern Miss possessions end in a turnover. That's a bad number. Don't look for Iowa State to shoot 12.5% from three-point range again like they did in the last game. They should win quite comfortably tonight. Play on IOWA STATE

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This is a 10* on UCLA

Southern Utah already notched one upset this year, that being a 79-78 double overtime win at Nebraska. The Thunderbirds followed that up with a cover in BYU as they lost by only five points as a double digit dog. That was their 10th straight ATS win in the month of November going back two years. That streak ends tonight. The upset of Nebraska saw Southern Utah come back from a rather sizable deficit in the second half. They relied on some terrible shooting by the Cornhuskers to win that game. But it was their own poor shooting that cost them against BYU. The Thunderbirds missed all 12 three-point attempts they took in Provo. This will be Southern Utah's third straight road game and the tank could be closing in on empty. UCLA has yet to leave campus and has looked progressively better with each passing game. On Friday, they beat UNLV 71-54 as an eight-point favorite. The Bruins have a new head coach this year (Mick Cronin) and a new lease on life. They led by UNLV by 24 in the first half Friday. You knew Cronin would improve the defense here and UCLA has yet to allow more than 65 points. Play on UCLA

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This is a 10* on KC

It seems logical that Kansas City would bounce back in this spot. They are off a loss in which they outgained the opponent (Tennessee) 530-371. They had nine more first downs than the Titans in that game. But they also had two late-game field goal snafus that ended up costing them dearly. We don't think we'll be seeing those same kind of mistakes tonight in Estadio Azteca as the NFL once again heads to Mexico City. The Chargers are also off a close loss, theirs coming to the Raiders last Thursday. Again, costly miscues were the culprit as they finished the game -3 in turnover margin. One of the turnovers was an INT return for touchdown and that was basically the difference in a 26-24 game. LA finished with more yards and first downs than Oakland, similar to KC in its loss to Tennessee. This one boils down to the fact the Chiefs are simply better. Patrick Mahomes showed no ill-effects from his injury, throwing for more than 400 yards last week. The Chargers, who only average 20.7 points/game, simply don't score enough to keep up with the high-powered Chiefs. Kansas City is 9-1 the last 10 meetings with Los Angeles and has covered 8 of the last 11. Same 'ol story "south of the border." Play on KANSAS CITY

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This is a 10* play on MILWAUKEE

With wins in seven of the last eight games, Milwaukee is definitely rolling right now. The just beat Indiana by 19 on the road Saturday night. That was their best defensive effort of the year, holding the Pacers to just 83 points. That was timely because their own point total of 102 happened to be a season-low. Scoring has not been an issue for the Bucks this year, however. They lead the league in points/game (118.8) thanks in large part to the same prolific three-point shooting we saw last year. The other good news is the Bucks are 7-3 ATS the last three seasons coming off a game in which they allowed 90 points or less. These teams just played on Thursday with the Bucks winning 124-115. The Bulls were our *10* Game of the Month that night and cashed as 11.5-point underdogs. But we're switching course tonight as it seems very unlikely that Chicago will score that many points again. They are shooting just 40.9% in home games so far. It's now two straight losses for the Bulls as they just fell to a Brooklyn team that didn't have Kyrie Irving or Caris LeVert. Despite those absences, the Bulls still gave up 117 points. That's a bad sign for tonight. Milwaukee has covered its last four games in Chicago. Play on MILWAUKEE

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This is an 8* play on the OVER

The Rams offense may not be what it was last year, but this total is too low. When they faced the Bears last year, oddsmakers had the total at 50.5. That's a big change in one year's time. Now Bears fans will certainly want to point out what their defense did to the Rams last year. They held them to a season-low 6 points in an impressive primetime victory. But just like the Rams offense, the Bears defense doesn't seem to be what it was a year ago. When they're not facing one of the league's elite defenses, the Rams still do pretty well. A few weeks ago, asking the offense to break 20 points would have seemed like the easiest thing in the world. The Over is 5-2 when the Rams are off an ATS loss.  This is the lowest total for any Rams game in the Sean McVay era. That matters. There have only been three at 43 points or less, all of which occurred in the first six weeks of his tenure, and the Over was 3-0 in those games. The Bears offense is pretty bad, but even it scored 20 points last week. Getting to at least 17 this week seems realistic. Play OVER Chicago-LA Rams

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This is an 8* play on PHILADELPHIA

You probably remember the last time the Patriots played the Eagles. It was in the Super Bowl two years ago and they lost a memorable game, 41-33, as Doug Pederson was able to do what few have done and that's outcoach Bill Belichick. We'd be kidding ourselves to think that Super Bowl loss won't be on the mind of the Patriots Sunday. But so will a more recent defeat, the one that occurred two weeks ago in Baltimore. It was the first defeat of the year for New England and they pretty well got their "lunch" handed to them by the Ravens, losing 37-20.  Before that, the Patriots defense had been unbelievable. But they've also faced a weak slate of opponents: the Jets twice, Miami, Washington and the Giants to name a few.  Philly is also coming off a bye week, so no advantage for the Patriots there. Before their bye, Philly had won two straight and looked like a team that could win the NFC East. Carson Wentz may not have Alshon Jeffrey at his disposal this week, but he still has TE Zack Ertz and New England's defense struggles to defend tight ends. Ertz had nine catches for 103 yards two weeks ago against Chicago. The Eagles offense can also run the ball effectively.  How about the Philadelphia defense? The last two games have seen them give up just 27 points and 417 yards. Grab the points here with the home dog. Play on PHILADELPHIA

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This is a 10* on RICHMOND

Cal State Northridge is having a terrible start to the season. The Matadors are 0-4 straight up and against the spread. The losses have gotten progressively uglier with the latest coming by 46 points against Auburn. They gave up 116 points in that one. So Richmond has to be licking its chops coming into Sunday. The Spiders are 2-0, though those two wins couldn't have been much closer. They beat St. Francis (PA) by two (100-98) and Vanderbilt by one (93-92). Both games went to overtime! The Spiders are going to have to score a lot to cover the spread this afternoon and we think they will. So far they have shot the ball very well. CS-Northridge plays little in the way of defense. CS-Northridge's opponents have shot 53.1% so far. At the same time, they haven't shot very well themselves. This is simply a bad basketball team. These teams have combined to go 0-6 ATS, but it's pretty obvious which is better. All five Richmond starters are averaging more than 10 points/game. Off two tough wins, this will be among the Spiders easiest games of the season. Play RICHMOND

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This is a 10* on the UNDER

New Orleans just suffered what has to be the most shocking loss of the NFL season. As a two-touchdown favorite, they fell 26-9 to the Falcons last week. That was at home. They were dominated. Coming off a loss like that, you figure the Saints will be eager to take the field this week. But they are traveling to Tampa Bay to face a Buccaneers team that all of a sudden has some confidence following a last minute win over Arizona. Drew Brees is back but this Saints offense doesn't seem right. Last week was the 4th game this year in which they were held to 13 points or less. Some of that was with Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback. But slow starts have been the norm. New Orleans has scored just 25 points in the 1st quarter this year. Eventually that's going to catch up with them. It certainly did last week. Tampa Bay's last seven games have all gone Over. Some of them by a lot. But last week's only went Over when they scored the game winning touchdown in the closing seconds. The previous week's game went to overtime. The defense should get better this week with the return of CB Carlton Davis. Down a key offensive lineman (Andrus Peat), don't be shocked if the Saints again struggle to protect Brees. Also, Tampa Bay's defense is #1 in the league at stopping the run. But the Saints can probably count on their own defense in this game. They come in allowing just 20.2 points/game. Play UNDER New Orleans-Tampa Bay 

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This is a 10* on ATLANTA

Atlanta recorded what has to be considered the upset of the year, beating New Orleans last week 26-9 as a 14-point underdog. The Falcons came into that game at 1-7 and had not covered since a Week 2 win against Philadelphia. Having now beaten the likes of Philadelphia and New Orleans, the Falcons should be taken seriously - even at 2-7. This might be a lost season. But the team isn't bad. It's simply underachieved. Consider that they have gained more yards than they've allowed this season!  There was nothing fluky about the win in New Orleans either. What had previously been a non-existent pass rush even decided to show up as the Falcons sacked Drew Brees six times. Carolina's defense has looked real shaky of late. They gave up 51 points to the 49ers a few weeks back and are allowing 25.3 points/game for the year. The last three games have seen them allow 516 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground. Despite having a better record than Atlanta, the Panthers (5-4) are being outgained this year. Matt Ryan has always had his way with Carolina, beating them 14 times in 22 tries. He and the Falcons are 6-1 the last seven meetings. Half of Atlanta's ATS victories the last two years have come in division games. Kyle Allen started to look like a backup in Carolina's 24-16 loss last week to Green Bay. Our guess is that his regression will continue. We'll take the points with the team that has the edge at QB. Play on ATLANTA

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This is a 10* on USC

USC is 3-0 and looking good for coach Andy Enfield. The Trojans have beaten each of their three opponents by at least 18 points. While this is the first road game of the season, they are favored to win in Reno and we like them to keep rolling. Nevada has already eaten a loss. It came in the first game (vs. Utah) where they were favored to win by four but fell 79-74. The Wolf Pack have since bounced back with wins over Loyola Marymount and UT-Arlington. But both wins were close, coming by five and seven points respectively. One key area where USC will have the edge tonight is offensive rebounding. The Trojans have posted an off rebounding percentage of 40.5 so far. That ranks 21st in the country. Nevada's offensive rebounding percentage of 18.6 ranks 283rd. Jalen Harris led Nevada with 24 points in the win Tuesday night over UT-Arlington. But he is still not 100% after missing most of the first two games with a foot injury. Against a team like USC, one of your best players not being completely healthy could be the difference. This is a revenge game for USC. They lost by 12 to Nevada last year at home. Poor three-point shooting is the reason they lost. But, as indicated by the pointspread, this year's squad is better. Play on USC

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This is a 10* on PORTLAND

Portland is a small dog tonight in San Antonio. But it would appear as if the oddsmakers have failed to account for the fact that the Spurs are playing the second night of a back to back. This line would make sense were the home team rested. But they're not. The Blazers should be favored. Then there is the matter of what happened to the Spurs last night. Despite being up most of the game, they lost to Orlando 111-109. You just can't lose games where you have a 16-point lead ad shoot 50%. But the Spurs did just that. It was their 4th straight loss. For maybe the first time in Greg Popovich's tenure here, defense has become a major issue in San Antonio. The Spurs gave up 64 points to the Magic in the second half last night. They've allowed at least 112 points in five straight games.This is a revenge game for Portland, who lost 113-110 here in SA on October 28th. Both teams enjoyed a lead of 19 points in that game. The Blazers ended up covering as six-point underdogs. While the line isn't as high this time, that's irrelevant as the road team can clearly win outright here. Portland needs this one pretty badly as they've dropped six of seven. Carmelo Anthony won't be coming on board until Tuesday at the earliest. But the Blazers are well rested heading into Saturday (two days off) while the similarly struggling Spurs are not. Play on PORTLAND

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This is an 8* play on BAYLOR

Baylor is 9-0, but they're also a home dog to Oklahoma this week. Not only that, they are a double-digit home dog. That's pretty rare territory for a team to be in. The only other time in the last 40 years that a 9-0 team was a home dog of at least 7 points was Notre Dame's famous upset of Florida State in 1993. Only six 9-0 or better teams have EVER been a home underdog. Four of the six wound up winning their games outright. It should be pointed out that 9-0 Minnesota is also an underdog this week, but they're playing on the road. Speaking of the Golden Gophers, they were in a pretty similar spot last week (were 8-0) vs. Penn State and won. Bottom line is you shouldn't be writing off these unbeatens just because you didn't expect them to be unbeaten at this point. Baylor has won plenty of close games this year. But they are also 6-0 ATS their last six games as an underdog, winning five of them straight up. Coach Matt Rhule is 32-14 ATS in his career getting points and has won 16 of those games straight up. That includes 13-5 ATS as a home dog with seven straight up wins. Oklahoma's defense has been bad the last two games, giving up 48 and 41 points. They lost at Kansas State and then needed to stop an Iowa State 2-point try in the final minute to win last week. Baylor has allowed more than 21 points in regulation only two times all year. They can certainly win this game. Play on BAYLOR

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This is an 8* on WASHINGTON STATE

The loser of this game is going to see their postseason hopes take a major hit. Both Stanford and Washington State enter at 4-5 meaning whomever loses here will then need to win out just to get to a bowl game. Fortunately for Wazzu, the game is in Pullman where they have lost only two times in the last three seasons. Once was last year's Apple Cup (vs. Washington). The other was earlier this season in that wild 67-63 game against UCLA. Stanford isn't about to score 27 points, let alone 67. Consider the Cardinal "offensively challenged" as they could manage only 13 points last week against a Colorado defense that is probably the Pac 12's worst. Stanford averages only 21.6 points/game and has been held below that average five times. Washington State has scored at least 30 in every Pac 12 game besides Utah and Cal, who are the league's two best defensive teams. In the last three years, Mike Leach's offense has put up 107 points on the Stanford defense. This year, the Cardinal are missing two key players in their secondary. Despite losing five of six, the Cougs are still a formidable group. They get back on track in a big way Saturday afternoon. Play on WASHINGTON STATE

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This is a 10* play on the UNDER

Hawaii games have seen a spike in scoring over the last month with five straight games going Over. Every one of those five games saw at least 79 total points scored. Oddsmakers have been slow playing catchup as not even an absurd 78.5 could keep the Warriors and San Jose State Under last week (Hawaii won 42-40). But this week should finally be the time where the scoring subsides. UNLV is the opponent this week. The Rebels don't have any chance of making a bowl and Tony Sanchez may be coaching his final games out in the desert. The Rebels just can't seem to put it together offensively. Six of the last eight games have seen them held to 17 points or less. If UNLV is held to anything close to 17 points this week, then this will be an easy Under. Hawaii can't go Over themselves. They've scored more than 45 points only one time in 2019. Hitting the mainland, we expect Hawaii's offense not to be as prolific as recent weeks. The home team is on a 9-1 run in the series and that includes a 35-28 Hawaii win in Honolulu last year. Four of the last five meetings have seen 72 points or less scored. UNLV is off a bye, but that hardly matters. They are going nowhere fast. Redshirt freshman Kenyon Oblad isn't the answer at quarterback. Play UNDER Hawaii-Nevada

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This is a 10* play on BALL ST

Sometimes, handicapping a particular matchup (in any sport) can come to down to one simple factor. In the case of this game, it's all about homefield advantage. Ball State has it and that should be enough for the Cardinals to move one step closer to being bowl eligible on Saturday afternoon. Lay this short number with confidence. Ball State comes in averaging 40.2 points in their four games at Scheumann Stadium. They lost their last time here, 34-21 to Ohio, so that right there should tell you what they did offensively in the other three. The 40.2 points/game scoring average is well above what the Cardinals average in road games (27.5 points/game). Again, homefield advantage matters. It matters not just for Ball State, but for Central Michigan as well. The Chippewas home vs. road split is even wider than their opposition's. While Central Michigan averages 43.0 points/game at home, they average just 17.0 points/game on the road. The Chippewas have lost four of their five road games this year. The win was over Bowling Green, who is 3-7. In the other three road games, Central Michigan scored 0, 12 and 15 points. Central Michigan is already bowl eligible. Ball State is not. The Cardinals need to win two of the next three games and could be underdogs in the next two. The Cardinals won in Mount Pleasant last year 24-23 as a two-point dog. Play on BALL STATE

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This is an 8* on CALIFORNIA

California went just 8-23 SU last season and finished last in the Pac 12 with a 3-15 conference record. But things are already looking much brighter in Berkeley this season. The Bears are off to a 2-0 start for new coach Mark Fox and now have an excellent shot at opening 3-0.  On Tuesday, they were able to pick up an overtime win over UNLV. They won 79-75 as 3.5-point favorites. That was after we took them in the season opener when they delivered a "surprise" win over Pepperdine, 87-71 as two-point underdogs.  As we stated before that Cal-Pepperdine game, the Bears were very likely to improve this season after "bottoming out" under former coach Wyking Jones. Matt Bradley looks like a superstar after scoring 48 points in the first two games. This team is so much better than it was the last two seasons. But the oddsmakers have not caught on yet. Cal Baptist has already played three times, winning twice. The loss came on Tuesday as they faced #25 Texas. The Lancers could score only 54 points against the Longhorns, a major change from the first two games when they scored 93 and 112 against lesser competition. CBU gets 42.9% of its total points from behind the three-point arc, which is a very high percentage. They likely won't be able to sustain that. The Lancers also don't play very good defense, ranking near the bottom of D-I in both block and steal rate. They covered against Texas because the Longhorns couldn't hit open threes. Won't be the case again here. Playing two straight on the road against big time teams is a little much for this underdog. Lay a number that's too short. Play on CALIFORNIA

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This is a 10* on UTAH

Utah fell behind by double digits against Brooklyn on Tuesday. While they were able to come back and win 119-114, they did not cover the 6.5-point spread. That was at home. Tonight the Jazz hit the road, but they are facing a weak opponent. Memphis is not a team you would expect to get out in front of the Jazz like Brooklyn was able to do. Thus, our automatic inclination here was to lay the points. While the Grizzlies have won two in a row, it's the first time that's been the case this year. In Wednesday's 119-117 win over Charlotte, they mounted their own comeback, rallying back from down 12 in the third quarter. But Memphis has not done well after allowing more than 115 points their previous game. They are just 1-5 ATS in this situation the last three seasons. Utah is one of the top defensive teams in the league and has won four games in a row. They are allowing just 99.5 points/game. Memphis allows 118.8 points/game, which is fifth most in the league right now. This is a sizable mismatch. Play on UTAH

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This is a 10* on the UNDER

San Antonio has not played good defense lately. That's not the norm for Greg Popovich's team. The last five games have seen the Spurs surrender an average of 119.2 points. They're allowing opponents to shoot over 50%. But tonight's opponent has the potential to change all that. Orlando plays at the slowest tempo in the league. That has resulted in them also being last in the league in points scored. Though they've improved somewhat in the last four games, the Magic still aren't even averaging 100 points/game. They failed to hit triple digits in the first seven games of the season. But unlike the Spurs, the Magic can play some defense. They are #1 in the NBA in points allowed. At home, they give up just 96.3 points/game. Being last in points scored & first in points allowed should make the Under an automatic consideration any time Orlando hits the floor. The Under is already 7-4 for the Magic this season and that's with the last two games both going Over. Our view is that the Spurs defense will improve tonight and the game will be played at a slow pace. This is also the highest O/U line for any Orlando game in two weeks. Play UNDER San Antonio-Orlando   

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This is a 10* on MARSHALL

Since losing 52-17 to Texas in the first game of the season, Louisiana Tech has won eight in a row. They are 5-1-1 ATS the last seven games and since a Week 6 bye, the Bulldogs have averaged an amazing 52 points/game. They hit that number on the nose last week with a very impressive win over North Texas. That performance last week was definitely not what we were expecting. The Bulldogs are one of seven teams left without a conference loss. But they are underdogs this week at Marshall and for good reason. Marshall's defense has been excellent over the last five games, giving up just 20.4 points/game. So the Thundering Herd have what it takes to slow this La Tech attack down. The Herd have won four straight themselves and control their own destiny over in the East Division of Conference USA. This is just the third all-time meeting, so Huntington is not a place Louisiana Tech is all too familiar with. Their last visit here was the 2014 Conference USA Title Game, which they lost 26-23. Marshall is 48-18 SU its last 66 home games. Louisiana Tech's ascent is not something that was expected. At least to this height. Marshall is primed to win 8+ games for the 5th time in 6 seasons and they are off a bye. Play on MARSHALL

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This is a 10* on the UNDER

Vancouver stopped a four-game losing streak with a 5-3 win over Nashville on Tuesday. Tonight, they'll play host to a Dallas team on its own four game streak, that being four straight Unders. You can look for this to be another low-scoring game. Play the Under. The Under is 9-1 the Stars last 10 games, a stretch which has also seen them win eight times. The key to the success, as you might have guessed, is keeping the other team from scoring. Those last nine games, they've allowed just 16 goals. They won 3-1 last night in Calgary.  Off to one of their best starts in years, the Canucks should relish the opportunity to play at home where they've done quite well for themselves. The offensive numbers here are impressive, but so is the fact they allow just 2.5 goals/game. A problem for Dallas is that they still rank among the lowest scoring teams in the league. They average only 2.4 goals/game on the road, which is in the bottom third. They are 29th in shots/game on the road. The last two times Dallas has been in back to back, the game has gone Under. Play UNDER Dallas-Vancouver

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This is a 10* play on the UNDER

Michigan State started the year at #1 in polls. But they lost their first time out, falling to #2 Kentucky 69-62. It didn't take the Spartans long to bounce back though. Sunday saw them destroy Binghamton by a score of 100-47. Up next on the docket for Tom Izzo's team is a date with Seton Hall. The Pirates are 2-0 having also hit triple digits in a game (beat Wagner 105-71 in the opener). They followed that up by beating Stony Brook 74-57. Needless to say, this is a major step up in terms of the opposition. Seton Hall is no slouch. They are ranked #12 in the country. But they'll likely be playing without their best player Thursday. Myles Powell, who is the preseason Big East Player of the Year, sprained his ankle in the Stony Brook game. Replacing his production will be quite difficult, especially against a strong defensive team like Michigan State. Sparty didn't shoot well against Kentucky (39.4 FG%) and it will be interesting to see how they do in their first true road game. The Under is 17-7 when Izzo's team is a road favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. Play UNDER Michigan State-Seton Hall

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This is a 10* on CLEVELAND

The underachieving Browns got back into the win column last week by beating Buffalo 19-16 as a 2.5 point favorite. Despite being just 3-6 on the season, the Browns do have reason for hope. Their upcoming schedule is among the easiest in the entire league. Remaining games for the Browns include: Arizona, Miami and two with 0-9 Cincinnati. But first they've got to beat long-time nemesis Pittsburgh Thursday night. The Steelers have definitely had the Browns number through the years. The last eight meetings have seen the Steelers go 7-0-1. The tie was last year. Pittsburgh comes into this game as the underdog, but has won four in a row. Most of the wins have been close though. Three were decided by seven points or less. The other, against a Miami team that was winless at the time, saw them fall behind 13-0. So the Steelers aren't exactly dominating. Another benefit the Steelers have enjoyed is that six of their nine games have been played at home. That includes the last three. The only road game they've played the last six weeks was against the Chargers, who have the one of the weakest home field advantages in the league. Despite winning that game, the Steelers were outgained. They've been outgained by an average of 146.8 yards in the three road games this season. The Browns have only scored 38 points the past two weeks despite getting into the red zone nine times. That's almost historic inefficiency. We look for the Browns' offense to finally have its breakthrough game Thursday night in front of what should be a rabid Dawg Pound. Play on CLEVELAND

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This is a 10* play on CHICAGO 

Already on a three-game ATS losing streak, it's going to be tough for the Bucks to cover large spreads like this one now that Kris Middleton is injured. Middleton will be out 3-4 weeks after suffering a thigh injury Sunday. This is a good chance to fade Milwaukee as they host the Bulls on TNT. Chicago is coming off a 120-102 win over the Knicks, their second 18+ point win in the last three games. Rookie Coby White had his best game as a pro, ending up with 27 points after making seven three-pointers in the fourth quarter. With Middleton out, the Bucks are going to need someone to pick up the slack. It would be unfair to expect more from Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is already averaging 29.7 points, 14.3 rebounds and 6.8 assists per game. This situation is not great for Milwaukee either. They are coming off four straight road games and will play three more away from home following this game. Laying such a big number makes the spot even trickier. Chicago has not been a double digit dog yet this season. They've only been a dog period four times. So the market respects this team a bit more than most realize. They've covered four of their last six games. Play on CHICAGO

AAA

This is a 10* on NORTH CAROLINA

Mack Brown's has certainly made North Carolina better. But in order for this season to be considered a success, the Tar Heels need to get to a bowl. To do that, they'll need to win two of their next three games. Next week vs. Mercer is a lock. But they'll also need to win one of two road games, this week at Pitt or the regular season finale at NC State. North Carolina has beaten Pittsburgh six straight times. Yet they are the underdog Thursday night. With the game being at Heinz Field, that makes sense. But even when UNC was struggling the last couple years, they still managed to beat the Panthers. The Tar Heels were a combined 5-18 the last two years with just two ACC wins. Both were against Pitt. Brown brings a better team in this year, one that started its season with upsets over South Carolina and Miami FL. Since then, the Heels are just 2-5. But it's worth pointing out that all five losses were one-score games. Three of those losses were by a total of six points. Pitt won the ACC Coastal last year, but still lost seven games. At 6-3 this year, they're already assured of a bowl. Were they to win out, they'd have a shot at repeating as division champs. But they haven't won a game by more than 10 points all year and half of their wins have been by a field goal or less. Brown definitely wants that bowl bid his first year back in Chapel Hill. With the success North Carolina has had in the past vs. Pitt, we've gotta grab the points in this matchup. UNC is already 3-1 ATS as a dog this year. Honestly, they may be the better team here. A Pitt offense averaging just 20.9 points/game can't really be trusted as a favorite, can it? Play on NORTH CAROLINA

AAA

This is an 8* on GREEN BAY

Green Bay seems to be getting a lot of points for Wednesday's game against New Mexico. Though the Phoenix are 0-11 straight up as a road underdog of 12.5 or more points the last three seasons, they have covered the spread in 9 of those 11 games. Look for them to make it 10 of 12 tonight. GB has already covered once as a big road underdog this year. It was the season opener at Purdue where they lost 79-57 as 23-point dogs. That's as close as it gets if you bet the Phoenix, but it still counts as a cover! Purdue, who was ranked #23 at the time, is obviously a better team than New Mexico. The fact that the Phoenix shot just 35% against Purdue and still picked up the ATS win probably bodes well for tonight. New Mexico isn't that strong defensively. After losing to Purdue, Green Bay bounced back with a 115-64 win over Wisconsin-Stout, a D-3 school. New Mexico has also played a game against a team from a lesser division (Eastern New Mexico) and then beat CS-Fullerton by 27 on Saturday. While the favorite is off a big win, we see the underdog keeping this game closer than expected. New Mexico probably isn't as good as they've looked on offense so far. "The Pit" is a tough venue to play at, but Green Bay has shown they can hang inside the number on the road as a big dog. Play on GREEN BAY

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

The Spurs are coming off their most embarrassing result of the season as they lost to Memphis Monday night, a game they were favored to win by double digits. Instead, they lost 113-109. Minnesota is off an upset win as they went to Detroit on Monday and beat the Pistons 120-114. It was the third time this season the Timberwolves went on the road and pulled off an outright upset. The Spurs have dropped five of seven games and are 2-8 ATS on the season. Maybe the most surprising thing about them is the poor defense we've seen of late. The last five games have seen them allow an average of 114.2 points. You just don't see that with a Greg Popovich coached team. Minnesota has pulled some upsets on the road, but they are not shooting the ball well at home (just 39.4% in four games). Our guess is that the Spurs defense is going to improve tonight and that means another bad shooting night for the T'wolves. These teams met four times last year and the Over was 4-0. But three of those four games would NOT have gone Over tonight's O/U line. Lower scoring game than expected tonight. Play UNDER San Antonio-Minnesota

AAA

This is a 10* on WASHINGTON

The Capitals saw their six-game win streak come to an end Monday night vs. Arizona. It was just their second loss in the last 12 games. We see them getting back in the win column tonight in Philadelphia.  Monday's loss to the Coyotes saw the game go to a shootout. Four of Washington's six losses this year have occurred after regulation time has ended. The problem against Arizona was the Capitals fell behind 3-0. That they even got the game to OT is somewhat impressive. Really there's no reason to be concerned with one loss.  Philadelphia brings its own four-game win streak into tonight, which is a season-high. But the last three wins have all come in overtime or a shootout. So it's not like the Flyers are dominating.  Having gone past regulation in five of the last six games, the Flyers tank may be running close to empty right about now. Washington has picked up a point in 12 straight games (10-0-2) and hasn't lost in regulation in a month (Oct 13). Washington won all four times they faced Philly last season. Three different times, they scored five goals. They led the league in scoring this year. Play on WASHINGTON

AAA

This is a 10* on BROWN

It's nice to see Quinnipiac has decided to join the College Basketball season! Now that they're done polling (what the school is known for!), it's time to start playing some basketball games. Up first is a date with Ivy League school Brown. Brown already has two games under its belt, so they've had a chance to work the kinks out. The Bears are 2-0 as they've been favored by similar amounts against Bryant and Canisius. Those were two and seven points wins respectively, so they're ATS record is 0-1-1. This is one where we do see Brown covering. This being their 1st game of the season, Quinnipiac is a bit of a wild card. But we know what we're getting with Brown. They've held the first two opponents to 40.0% shooting. They've won a road game. The player to watch on Brown is Brandon Anderson. He has made 35.7% of his 3-point shots so far and has 55 points in two games. He scored a career-high 32 vs. Canisius. Last season saw Brown win 20 games and a win a postseason game (CBI). Both were firsts for the program, which is on the rise. Lay the points tonight. Play on BROWN

AAA

This is an 8* on WASHINGTON STATE

Washington State had a terrible 2018-19 season. The Cougars won only 11 games and finished second to last in the Pac 12. But we thought it was absurd they were laying such a short number against Seattle in the season opener. We made the Cougs our Game of the Month and sure enough they won 85-54. Tonight Wazzu hits the road and is an underdog to a West Coast Conference opponent. We feel they deserve to be favored over Santa Clara. This is a revenge game. Last year, the Cougars lost to the Broncos 79-71 as eight-point favorites, a game which was played in Spokane, WA (neutral site). Santa Clara couldn't miss in that game, making 58.5% of its shots including 9 of 20 three-pointers. Similarly strong shooting has the Broncos off to a 2-0 start this year with wins over UC Santa Cruz and Cal Poly. But let's see how they do in their first real test. Wazzu was a respectable 7-7 in non-conference games last year and this year's team is going to be much better. Meanwhile, Santa Clara hasn't been very good as a favorite the last couple years, going 7-11 ATS while suffering seven outright losses. Play on WASHINGTON STATE

AAA

This is a 10* on UTAH

For a second time this year, Utah has won three in a row. They are 7-3 overall, which has them right near the top of the Western Conference. Tonight they go for a season-best four-game win streak when they host Brooklyn. We'll be laying the points. This is the second game of a back to back for the Jazz. Last night they went to Golden State and won 122-108. Winning at Golden State doesn't mean what it used to though, so we don't expect any kind of letdown. The Jazz won by 32 the only other time they played without rest this year. Brooklyn lost by 26 in Phoenix Sunday night. That snapped a two-game win streak. But they are still only 4-5 SU and 3-6 ATS. Massive edge for Utah defensively in this one. They lead the league allowing just 98.1 points/game. They've yet to allow more than 108 points. Brooklyn is next to last in points allowed per game at 121.7. They are 3-10 ATS after allowing 130 or more points in their last game (Phoenix scored 138). The Jazz are the only team in the West that has not lost a home game. They are 5-0 in Salt Lake City, winning by an average of 11.2 points. They are simply better than Brooklyn right now. Play on UTAH

AAA

This is a 10* on WILLIAM & MARY

William & Mary and Wofford are each 2-0 to start the year. But we value William & Mary's start a little bit more as both of their wins came on the road. Wofford's two wins have both been at home. We'll take the points. William & Mary's season started with a 70-56 win over High Point. Wofford also has a win over High Point, theirs coming by a 28-point margin (89-61). Again though, W&M had to do it on the road. High Point is a pretty terrible team, but W&M winning as a 3.5-point dog at American University last Frday was a little more impressive. What the Tribe have done exceptionally well to this point is play defense. They've held the first two opponents to 34.9% shooting. That defense will be tested here by a Wofford team that's shooting 51.8% overall and 43.1% from three. But the Terriers are allowing the opposition to shoot well from distance as well. Erskine and High Point combined to make nearly 43% of their three-point attempts. Wofford is just 1-5 ATS its last six opportunities as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points. Let's see what happens when they have to face a "real" team. So far the Terriers have relied on two big second halves. Not sure that can continue. W&M's two big guys should give Wofford trouble. Play on WILLIAM & MARY

AAA

This is an 8* play on AKRON

Akron isn't just the worst team in the country on the field, they are also the worst team in the country at the betting window. The winless Zips have matching 0-9 straight up and against the spread records. Despite this dubious distinction, we will "take the bait" on Tuesday and grab the points with the "ugly" home dog.Eastern Michigan isn't exactly a world-beater itself. The Eagles come into this game at 4-5, needing two more wins to gain bowl eligibility. While they've got to feel good about their chances of winning tonight, them laying so many points on the road is unfamiliar. Over the last 10 seasons, EMU has been a road favorite just four times, all four coming in the last three seasons. Just one of those four times were they asked to lay more than a field. It was last year's regular season finale where bowl eligibility was on the line. They won 28-20 at Kent State, but did not cover as 13-point favorites. It's not like the Eagles have played well lately. They've lost four of five. Ten days ago, they were blown out 43-14 by Buffalo and that was at home. They haven't won a game here in Akron since the 90's. Making a case for Akron is kind of tough. But this is more of a fade on Eastern Michigan anyway. None of the Eagles four wins this year have been by more than seven points. Plus weather will be a factor tonight (snow) as the kickoff time had to be moved up two hours. Play on AKRON

AAA

This is a 10* play on the OVER 

You have to wonder if the Over is set to make a "comeback" in these primetime affairs. The Under had been 13-4 in Sunday/Monday night games this year prior to last night's Over in Minnesota-Dallas. We had the Over last night and that's the way we're playing Monday night's game as well. It's not just about bucking a trend for us though. Both of these teams can certainly score. In their last home game, the 49ers put up 51 points. Seattle scored 40 last week in an overtime victory over Tampa Bay. The Seahawks will add Josh Gordon to their offense this week. The mercurial Gordon certainly has his share of off the field problems, but can be as talented a receiver as there is. Not that Russell Wilson needs much help these days. Wilson is having a MVP caliber season with 2,505 yards passing. That the Niners are without LB Kwon Alexander is huge. A rookie (Dre Greenlaw) is replacing him. San Francisco QB Jimmy Garoppolo should have a big night as well. Seattle's pass defense ranks 28th, giving up 278 yards/game. They allowed 460 yards to a backup (Matt Schaub) two weeks ago and then 335 to Jameis Winston last week. The Over has hit in six of Seattle's last seven NFC West games. The same for four of San Francisco's last five NFC West games. This could easily turn into a high-scoring game. Play OVER Seattle-San Francisco

AAA

This is a 10* on ALABAMA

Both of these teams are off losses. For Alabama, that's unexpected. The Crimson Tide were 7-point home favorites in an 81-80 loss to Penn in the first game of the season. Just a bad week all around in Tuscaloosa. FAU fell to Miami by 14 on Friday. That was after a shaky defensive effort in the opener where they gave up 81 points to a Division II school. So look for the Crimson Tide to bounce back offensively after a dreadful 35% shooting night against Penn. Bama has had more time to prepare for this game as well. They've been off for five days. Injuries and waiting on the eligibility of a transfer have realy hampered Nate Oats start here. But the 1st year coach should turn things around, just like he did at Buffalo. Only 2 of FAU's 13 players that saw time against Miami finished in double figures. So while Alabama's depth has taken a hit, FAU really doesn't have much depth to speak of. With poor defense and a 34.4% shooting effort against Miami, there's no reason to believe FAU competes here. Play on ALABAMA

AAA

This is a 10* on SAN ANTONIO

Neither the Grizzlies nor the Spurs have been very good teams against the pointspread this year. Both come into Monday sporting 2-7 ATS records. But the difference is San Antonio has at least been winning some (5-4 straight up) while the Grizzlies have a matching 2-7 SU record. San Antonio did just get hit hard by Boston, giving up 135 points in a 20-point home loss. It was the third loss in the last four games for the Spurs, but the first time they'd been blown out all season. Traditionally, they have not been good off that kind of defeat. But they're facing a Memphis team that has been outscored by almost 28 points/game in its three road losses.  The Grizzlies just lost 138-122 to Dallas and that was at home. While it was the most points they've given up in a game this year, it was not the first time getting blown out. It was the 4th loss by 19 or more points so far and second in a row. The previous night in Orlando they lost 118-86. It's a big number to lay with a Spurs team that hasn't covered often. But Memphis might be the worst team in the league right now. Their last three opponents have averaged 125.7 points. They are averaging just 92.7 points/game themselves on the road. Play on SAN ANTONIO

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

The Lakers have won seven in a row and posted the best point differential in the league. They've held half of their opponents below 100 points and just held Miami to 80 points, their fewest allowed in a game this season. They have posted the league's best defensive efficiency rating as well. Right now, things are going very well for LeBron and company. It's a tough matchup on Sunday though with the defending champs coming to LA. Toronto is 6-2 and had double digit leads in both games they lost. The Raptors are allowing a field goal percentage of 40.6% this year, which is even lower than what the Lakers are allowing. This has all the makings of a low-scoring game between two good defensive teams. Toronto is really going to struggle to score tonight. They are without both Kyle Lowry (21.8 PPG) and Serge Ibaka, both of whom sustained injuries in New Orleans Friday night. Play UNDER Toronto-LA Lakers

AAA

This is an 8* on the OVER

The numbers aren't good here for Kirk Cousins, whether it be his record on the road vs. winning teams (0-7-1 SU/ATS with Minnesota), his record on the road in primetime (1-7 SU, 1-6-1 ATS) or his record against Dallas (1-6 straight up, including 0-4 vs. Dak Prescott). But Cousins has either completed 80% of his passes or thrown 3 TD passes in five straight games. The Vikings did lose last week, 26-23 at Kansas City, but are 23-9-1 ATS off a loss under Mike Zimmer. They're getting Dallas on a short week. The Cowboys are 1-6 ATS after playing on Monday Night Football under Jason Garrett. So the trends aren't all against Minnesota Sunday night. Another trend that's interesting is the Under has gone 13-4 in Sunday & Monday night games this NFL season. That includes 8-0 when the home team is favored. But with two explosive offenses this week, we feel that trend is about to change. We've got two of the game's best runners facing off in Dalvin Cook and Ezekiel Elliott. Cook has 1232 yards from scrimmage and leads the league in rushing. The Vikings defense isn't the same away from home either as it has given up 56 points the last two road games. The Cowboys offense has scored 37 points in back to back games. They are averaging 6.8 yards/game and 436.6 yards/game. This total simply isn't high enough for a game that could quickly turn into a shootout. Play OVER Minnesota-Dallas

AAA

8* play on VIRGINIA

Two years ago, Virginia suffered the ultimate humiliation by becoming the first ever #1 seed to lose to a #16 seed. They more than redeemed themselves last year by winning the National Championship. This year's team is ranked #11 and opened things up with a 48-34 win over Syracuse. As you can tell from that final score, it was even uglier than usual for the Cavaliers. But the good news is they still won by double digits despite shooting only 16% from the three-point range. They also turned it over 16 times. Last year's team set a school record by making an average of 18 three's per game and they also led the entire country by turning it over just 9.0 times per game. So those numbers from the first game are a lock to improve (even though the 3-pt line has been moved back this year). James Madison is no match for Virginia. The Dukes beat Charlotte 79-74 on Wednesday. But they've never beaten Virginia, an in-state rival, in 10 all-time tries. On the road, the Cavaliers held Syracuse to just 23% shooting and 34 points. Now just imagine what they'll do at home where they've never lost an opener under Coach Bennett (10-0). JMU was without one of its best players (Dwight Wilson) in the opener and he's listed as questionable here. Virginia has covered 67% of the time it has been a favorite the L3 years, going 44-22 ATS. Play on VIRGINIA

AAA

This is a 10* on TAMPA BAY

Tampa Bay (2-6) has found a variety of ways to lose this year. Last week, it was blowing a 21-7 lead in Seattle. The Bucs couldn't even get the ball in overtime after the Seahawks missed the potential game-tying FG at the end of regulation.  This week finds the Bucs favored for just the third time all season. They've lost outright in the first two, one to San Francisco (back in Week 1) and then to the Giants in Week 3. Were they to lose for a third time as chalk this year, things could get real ugly for Bruce Arians in Tampa. We don't think they lose though. Despite its 2-6 record, the Bucs have actually outgained their opponents. They are better than what the record shows. This is also their first home game since blowing that big lead to the Giants back in Week 3. At 3-5-1, Arizona has been slightly better than expected. They actually played a really nice game last week in San Francisco with the offense gaining over 7.0 yards/play against the league's top defense. But this is a road game and an early start time to boot. The time has simply come for a TB victory. The Cardinals have three wins, but they've come by just 10 total points. The Bucs have lost four games by a total of 18 points. The home team should move the ball and will be playing some inspired defense. Play on TAMPA BAY

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

So Tampa Bay found another way to lose last week. It was blowing a 21-7 lead in Seattle and going down in overtime where they didn't even have a chance to possess the ball. A tough break for Bruce Arians team, which is now 2-6 on the year. This week find the Bucs favored for just the third time this season. They are hosting the 3-5-1 Cardinals who will be coming in with some confidence after taking the undefeated 49ers to the wire last Thursday. The Arizona offense even averaged over 7.0 yards/play against what is the league's top defense. With the Bucs on a six-game Over streak, the expectation here will clearly be for a high-scoring shootout. But be careful with expectations sometimes. This high number is something we can take advantage of this week.Tampa's run defense is actually #1 in the league this year, giving up only 78.1 yards/game. So hopefully they can make the Arizona offense one-dimensional. While Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray has some of the same skill-set as Russell Wilson (who faced the Bucs last week), Murray just isn't the passer Wilson is - at least yet. The Under is still 15-7 in Tampa Bay's last 22 home games. Play UNDER Arizona-Tampa Bay

AAA

This is an 8* on the NY JETS

The state of professional football in New Jersey is downright putrid with the two teams occupying MetLife Stadium owning a combined 3-14 record. The Giants (2-7) have lost five in a row while the Jets (1-7) hit rock bottom last week by becoming the first team to lose to Miami. It's tough to decipher any real advantages in a matchup this bad. What's unique is this is a "neutral site game." But the Giants are on a short week. Things got away from them in the second half Monday vs. Dallas and they ended up losing 38-17. The short week definitely works against the Giants. The Jets are probably in even worse shape right now coming off the loss in Miami. But at least they can claim to have beaten a Dallas team that blew the Giants out twice. Coach Adam Gase seems to be in really "hot water" right about now. He could be done after one year if things continue to go south. The Giants offense has really not improved much with Daniel Jones as the quarterback. They've been held below 300 yards four times during the five-game losing streak. Before losing to Miami, the Jets were set to be favored this week. We see some value (believe it or not) in backing them as a dog in this all-ugly matchup. In the past five seasons, there have been 15 instances in Week 6 or later between two teams with winning percentages of .250 or lower. The underdog is 14-1 straight up and a perfect 15-0 ATS! Play on NY JETS

AAA

This is a 9* Play on CALGARY

Calgary finished with the most points in the Western Conference last regular season. But they would obviously switch places with St. Louis in a hearbeat as it was the Blues capturing their first ever Stanley Cup last June. These two teams meet Saturday night at the Saddledome. The Blues have won six straight. The Flames have won four of five, the last two coming here on home ice. For the Blues, this is a 4th consecutive game played on the road and the third in a row in Western Canada. They managed to down Vancouver and Edmonton back to back nights. But we think the schedule catches up with them here. Calgary has 22 points. There's only five teams with more, St. Louis being one of them. But the Blues are only +5 in goals scored vs. allowed. We think they're a little lucky to be sitting at 11-3-3 right now.  The Flames are averaging 4.0 goals/game at home where they are 6-2. St. Louis has had to come from behind in 8 of its 11 wins. That can't keep happening. Play on CALGARY

AAA

This is a 10* on HOUSTON

Houston started the year 0-6 ATS (while also going 3-3 SU in those games). They've now covered two straight, beating Memphis and Golden State. Tonight they face another weak opponent in Chicago. The Bulls did win their last game, however. They actually won by 20 on the road! But it was the first time Atlanta had to play a back to back this season. The Hawks, by their own admission, seemed ill-prepared for the game. Chicago took full advantage with its largest margin of victory to date. The Rockets figure to be one of the better teams in the Western Conference this year. Some atrocious defense hurt them the first couple weeks of the season, but they just held Memphis and Golden State to an average of 106 points. Chicago's ambitions of making the playoffs this year feel a little foolish on this end. They've been held under 100 points three times already and won't look as good here as they did in Atlanta Wednesday night. Off their first two wins, the Bulls lost by 24 and 13, both times at home. It's a little shocking that the Bulls have been underdogs in only three games so far. They lost all three. We think the market is simply too high on them. Play on HOUSTON

AAA

This is a 10* on PEPPERDINE

It's never personal when we play on or against a team. It's simply a read of the current situation and marketplace. So the fact we went against Pepperdine on Tuesday should not be construed as any kind long-term negative outlook on the Waves. If you got a chance to read our analysis for the Pepperdine-Cal game, you know that we had almost nothing negative to say about Pepperdine. It was simply an opportunity to take a team from a major conference, getting points against a mid-major. Cal won the game 87-71. As disappointing a result as that was for Pepperdine, they should bounce back here against UC Irvine. The Anteaters picked up a road win in their opener, but barely, as they beat San Diego 76-73. They did not cover as they were 5.5 point favorites. UC Irvine attempted only 11 three pointers in that game. They made just two. That kind of shooting isn't going to cut it on a regular basis, especially when playing on the road. Really, the Anteaters were somewhat fortunate to even win Tuesday. They were down 14 at halftime. Pepperdine allowed Cal to shoot 57.4% while making only 37.1% of its own attempts. That kind of disparity won't happen often. Play on PEPPERDINE

AAA

This is a 10* on the OVER

Tennessee has shown it still has a pulse by scoring 71 points the last two weeks. (They also won both games) Kentucky is off a bye, so their offense should be as healthy and ready as its been in some time. With a low total, we like this game to go Over. Part of Kentucky's problem this year has been at quarterback. But they have found a solution in the most unique of ways. Receiver Lynn Bowden Jr was moved over to QB and has dazzled with back to back virtuoso performances. Bowden has RUN for 400 yards in two starts. It's something the Tennessee defense is going to have trouble prepping for. The Wildcats haven't exactly faced the most impressive slate of offenses recently and the game vs. Missouri two weeks ago took place in a downpour. It's worth noting that before UK's last five games went Under, the first three all went Over. Tennessee has shown it can score the last two weeks. The 41-point effort against South Carolina was especially impressive. This is the third year in a row that Kentucky is favored to beat Tennessee. Before that, they'd been favored just once in 50 years! The Vols are 3-0 ATS in those three games as dogs and they've also scored at least 24 points the last five meetings, including three games with at least 49 points. Play OVER Tennessee-Kentucky

AAA

This is a 9* on NORTH TEXAS

Most of the teams without a conference loss should be familiar to you as they are also unbeaten on the year. There are a few exceptions to this "rule," and the one you probably know the least about is Louisiana Tech out of Conference USA. The Bulldogs are 4-0 against the rest of the conference and coming off a bye this week. Their only loss this year was against Texas, which was the first game of the season. They've since won seven straight games against what we'd have to call one of the weakest schedules in the entire country. Here is who La Tech has beaten this year: Grambling, Bowling Green, FIU, Rice, UMass, Southern Miss and UTEP. Take Southern Miss and FIU out of the equation and that's some of the worst teams in the country. Grambling is a FCS team while the other four opponents have a combined 5-30 SU record. North Texas just clobbered UTEP last week, 56-22, which snapped a 4-game ATS losing streak. The Mean Green were favored to win the West Division in C-USA this year, so this is a huge game for them. They are two back of La Tech in the loss column. The home team has not fared in this rivalry, losing six of the last eight matchups. The underdog has won outright four straight times. North Texas QB Mason Fine threw 7 TD passes last week and he could be the difference in this one. Play on NORTH TEXAS 

AAA

This is an 8* on TROY

Last week saw Georgia Southern pull off a big upset over Applachian State, the second year in a row they beat the Mountaineers. Troy, another team from the Sun Belt, wasn't quite as fortunate as they lost by one point at Coastal Carolina. Having to come back and lay points on the road seems like a trap for a team that is off its biggest win of the season. Georgia Southern has won four in a row, but three of those wins were by exactly three points. Three of their four road games this season have been three-point games. The other was a 55-3 loss to LSU. The only other time the Eagles were favored on the road, they failed to cover (-10 at South Alabama). Troy lost on a 2-point conversion last week. Coastal Carolina scored a touchdown in the final 30 seconds to make it a 35-34 game, then converted the 2-pt play for the win. Troy lost despite 500 yards of offense and trailing for just over three minutes of actual game time.If this scenario sounds familiar, last week we took a team that was coming off a loss as a favorite (South Carolina) against a team that had just pulled an upset the previous week (Vanderbilt). The final score there was 24-7. Troy had won 10 or more games three years running, so at 3-5 this can be classified as a disappointing season. The Trojans may need to win out just to get to a bowl. It's Homecoming. They've beaten Ga Southern two years in a row. They should win here. Play on TROY

AAA

This is a 10* on BAYLOR

Given where this number opened, there still seems to be a real lack of faith in Baylor. The Bears are unbeaten (8-0), but were ranked only 12th in the initial College Football Playoff rankings. There are six teams with at least one loss ranked ahead of the Bears and two with two losses! We're here to say that we do have faith that Matt Rhule's team can win the Big 12 this year. The schedule has set up nicely so far and looking forward, both Oklahoma and Texas have to come to Waco. There have been some close wins along the way (three by a field goal or less), including last week. But off the previous two close wins, Baylor came back to win the next game by 19 and 18 points. Over the last 40 years, there have been only nine times where a team that was 8-0 or better found itself favored by a field goal or less on the road. Those nine unbeatens have responded by going 7-2 ATS! That's the situation Baylor is in here. TCU is 4-4 with three losses by seven points or less. The last time they were at home, they beat Texas 37-27. But in last week's 34-27 loss at Oklahoma State, they lost two quarterbacks to injury! A third QB on the roster decided to transfer out of the program this week! The expectation is that starter Max Duggan will play Saturday, but he fell to the turf hard last week, injuring his shoulder. He won't be at 100%.  Baylor didn't look that great last Thursday against West Virginia. They won 17-14, which was the fewest points scored in any game all year for them. But getting extra time to prepare for an opponent they know well should help. TCU has beaten Baylor four years in a row, so that's even more motivation for the Bears besides wanting to stay unbeaten. Play on BAYLOR

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This is an 8* on WASHINGTON

Washington is off two gut-wrenching defeats, both at home. They were underdogs against both Oregon and Utah. What's interesting about that is that prior to those two games, the Huskies had not been a home dog since 2015, which was Chris Petersen's 2nd year here in Seattle. They led Oregon by two touchdowns in the second half (lost 35-31) and then were up going into the 4th quarter last week against Utah (lost 33-28). Now the Huskies go from home dog to road favorite. It's a bit of a dangerous spot facing a suddenly hot Oregon State team. But this is a game Washington should win big. They are 5-2 ATS in the games they've been favored to win this year. Washington is 8-1 this decade vs. OSU including seven straight wins. Six of those wins have been by double digits. Oregon State's resurgence has largely come at the expense of the bottom of the Pac 12. The Beavers have beaten UCLA, Cal and Arizona, all of those wins coming on the road, ironically enough. Washington may not be a Top 25 team in the eyes of the committee, but they still are to us. They are 3-0 SU and ATS off back to back losses under Petersen, two of the wins coming against Oregon State. Play on WASHINGTON

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This is a 10* on EDMONTON

Edmonton comes into tonight tied for first place in the Pacific Division. But while both they and rival Calgary have 22 points, the Oilers have played two fewer games. Tonight should be an easy two points as they host the last place team in the Metropolitan Division, New Jersey. The Devils have just 12 points, though four of their 10 losses have come after regulation. Still this bad start is a real disappointment for a team that had aspirations of making the playoffs. The Devils are the reason that the Oilers are now tied with the Flames for first in the Pacific. They lost 5-2 in Calgary last night. New Jersey had won two in a row prior to last night's defeat. It was the second time this year they'd won consecutive games, only to get blown out their next time hitting the ice. Calgary outshot them 38-23 and really dominated the game in all facets. This will be the Devils third road game in four days. Only three teams have scored fewer goals this season. They have a -16 goal differential. Lack of scoring has been a recent issue for Edmonton as well as they've lost two straight and 7 of 9. But the last two times they've been off consecutive losses, they come back to score 4 goals and win. Play on EDMONTON

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This is a 10* play on WISCONSIN

Wisconsin's season started with a two-point loss to St. Mary's on Tuesday. They'll look to bounce back against a much lesser opponent on Friday, Tony Romo's alma mater of Eastern Illinois. The Badgers did cover the spread on Tuesday as they were four-point underdogs in a game that went to overtime. The game took place in Sioux Falls, SD. The team's top returning scorer D'Metrick Trice finished with just 10 points on 3 of 7 shooting. There was a six minute stretch in the first half where no one on the team made a field goal. Wisconsin was also badly outrebounded. None of that should happen again tonight in Madison. Nor will the Badgers succumb to a 21-3 run by the opposition. Eastern Illinois lost by 25 on Tuesday and allowed Texas Tech to shoot 55%. Opening its season with road games against Texas Tech and Wisconsin all but guaranteed Eastern Illinois would open 0-2. After such a bad performance in the first game, you have to imagine the players have little confidence coming into this game. Wisconsin has covered seven of the last nine times they have been a home favorite of more than 12 points. They should be able to "name their score" here. Play on WISCONSIN

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This is a 10* play on SACRAMENTO

Just as soon as they got Trae Young back from injury, the Hawks lost John Collins to a 25-game suspension. The team looked absolutely putrid in a 20-point home loss to Chicago Wednesday night. So we'll be playing against them tonight. Wednesday was the first time all year Atlanta had to play back to back. Still that's no excuse for losing by 20 at home to the Bulls. Young really struggled, scoring just nine points. The team was 6 of 30 from behind the 3-point arc with Young missing all eight of his tries. Committing a season-high 24 turnovers didn't help either. This is not the first game where Sacramento has been a road favorite. We actually took them -1.5 at New York on Sunday, which was our Game of the Week. They won by 21. While they followed it up with a 4-point loss in Toronto, they covered as eight-point underdogs. So they're 3-0 ATS the L3 games having also beaten Utah, which is a solid win. The Kings are just 5-16 ATS their last 21 visits to Atlanta, but won convincingly here last season (by 31 points). It was their largest margin of victory all year. They are 3-1 SU and ATS the last two seasons versus the Hawks.  Against Toronto, the Kings tied a franchise record with 20 made three-pointers. They are the hotter of these two teams right now. Play on SACRAMENTO

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This is a 10* on WASHINGTON STATE

We know Washington State is off a bad year, but it's rather preposterous to see the Cougs laying such a short number at home to a small school like Seattle. Remember two nights ago we had Cal as a home dog against Pepperdine and the Bears won outright. That Cal play is worth mentioning again because the Bears were the only team to finish below Wazzu in last year's Pac 12 standings. Wazzu draws an even weaker opponent for its season opener as Seattle is a WAC school, perhaps one of the weakest overall conferences in the country. The RedHawks were just 6-10 in conference play last year. Seattle has already played a game. It beat Pacific Lutheran, a non-board team, by 34 points. Getting out to a 31-7 lead was huge. But nothing close to that will be happening tonight. This is a revenge game for Washington State. They lost to the RedHawks last year by nine points. That game was in Seattle though. Wazzu shot very poorly in the game, making less than 30% of its field goal attempts. Despite that loss, the Cougs are still 11-1 ATS their L12 games vs the WAC. Washington State has a new coach, Kyle Smith, who comes over from San Francisco. He led the Dons to 20 wins last season. Lots of new talent was brought in. A new coach is not going to want to lose a game like this. Play on WASHINGTON STATE

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This is a 10* on OAKLAND

Either the Chargers or Raiders are likely to end up with 8 wins this year. Can't say that's something we would have expected to write just a couple of weeks ago. But both AFC West teams are off victories heading into Thursday night's matchup. The Chargers, now 4-5, surprised a lot of people by beating Green Bay on Sunday. That's a game where we had the Under. They held Aaron Rodgers to just 11 points. But as impressive as the win was, it's crucial to remember it was the best LA has looked all season. Oakland, who is 4-4, just beat Detroit 31-24. It was the first time all year that the Raiders were favored to win a game, so they've definitely overachieved. Interestingly, the Chargers were favorites in each of their first six games. The Raiders have not beaten the Chargers in awhile. They've lost all four meetings the previous two seasons and gone 0-4 ATS as well. But this is definitely the best they've been since Jon Gruden took over. All four TD's against the Lions were scored by rookies! It's the Raiders time (to beat LA) on Thursday. Before the Chargers beat the Packers, Oakland was set to be a slight favorite in this matchup. The Raiders are a solid 6-1 ATS the last 7 home games and we don't see a Chargers team that started 2-5 magically turning things around with what would be a third straight win. Play on OAKLAND

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This is a 10* on BOSTON

Charlotte has certainly surprised some people by winning three in a row. They've covered the spread in four straight games. Only one of those games were they they favorite and how ironic is it that it was against Golden State? Tuesday night was a 122-120 overtime win over Indiana. There was a pretty obvious reason the Hornets were able to beat the Pacers. Free throws. While Charlotte went 28 of 42 from the line, Indiana was only 6 of 7. That kind of massive disparity doesn't come around too often. Without it, the Hornets would have lost Tuesday. The disparity certainly won't repeat itself tonight.Boston is humming along with five straight wins. The last one was in Cleveland, 119-113, a game with a similar spread to this one. The Celtics only loss this year came in the opener at Philadelphia. Since then, they've been playing very good defense, holding teams to 42.7% shooting. Tonight is a homecoming of sorts for Kemba Walker. The Hornets all-time leading scorer is now averaging 26 points/game for the Celtics. Jaylen Brown is expected back for Boston after he missed the last three games. It's surprising to see Charlotte winning three in a row. The streak stops here though. The past two seasons saw them go 5-9 SU/ATS when off three or more consecutive wins. Play on BOSTON

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This is a 10* on the UNDER

These schools have met just one time. It was last year and Coastal Carolina won 30-28 as a three-point underdog. That was on the road. This year, the Chanticleers get to host the Ragin Cajuns, but are actually much bigger underdogs. Louisiana has been one of the best ATS teams in the country this year. They are 7-1 ATS. The only game they didn't cover was against Appalachian State, a 17-7 loss. The only other team to beat them was Mississippi State back in the first game of the season. While this won't be the highest total for either team, ULL has gone Under in three straight games. They also haven't allowed more than 25 points in any game since that loss to Mississippi State. Coastal Carolina has been quite the opposite with five of their last six games going Over the total. Their defense hasn't been great. Home games, on average, have tended to be lower scoring though. Look for Louisiana to run the ball a lot in this game. They'll be effective at doing so, but it will also keep the clock moving. Play UNDER Louisiana-Coastal Carolina

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This is a 10* on DALLAS

Orlando's struggles continued last night with a 102-94 loss in Oklahoma City. It was yet another game scoring less than 100 points. In fact, the Magic have yet to score 100 points in any game this year. No wonder they have a 2-5 SU record (1-5-1 ATS). It's unlikely they get the issues solved in the second night of a back to back, so fade them again.We faded the Magic last night too. We talked about the lack of scoring as they are last in the league in points scored and field goal percentage. It looked like they might be able to get to 100 last night, but a 15-point fourth quarter ultimately doomed them. They shot just 39% for the game, including 13% on three-point attempts. Dallas has looked far more impressive so far. They scored 131 in a blowout win at Cleveland Sunday. The time off between games is another obvious advantage the Mavs have coming into this one. Point guard Luka Doncic looks like the real deal. Orlando hasn't won here in "Big D" since 2011. It's seven straight losses by an average of 17.7 points/game. If you can't score 100 points, you won't win many games in this league. That's the sad reality for the Magic right now. Unless the Mavericks have some sort of severe defensive lapse, they should win comfortably against a team playing in the second night of a back to back. Play on DALLAS

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This is 10* on OHIO STATE

Ohio State opens the year ranked #18 in the country. They face a Cincinnati team going through a transition with a new coach and lots of new players. Playing in Columbus, the season opener sets up well for the Buckeyes. These schools didn't play for 98 years, but are now opening the season against one another for the second consecutive season. OSU won last year's game in Cincinnati, 64-56 as a 4.5-point dog. That was a signal that the Buckeyes were "for real" and they'd end up making the NCAA Tournament. Cincinnati has made the Big Dance 10 years in a row. But there could be some early growing pains this season. Mick Cronin left to go coach at UCLA. Five players transferred and two more graduated, leaving new coach John Brannen to almost have to start over from scratch. Yes, he does have three starters back, but we don't think that's enough to match up with the mighty Buckeyes. Ohio State has the Wesson brothers and Kaleb reportedly dropped 30 pounds in the offseason. Having beaten a better Cincinnati team on the road to open last season, it stands to reason the Buckeyes should have an even easier time this year in Columbus. The Bearcats have lost 26 of the last 33 times they've been a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points. Play on OHIO STATE

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This is a 10* on MIAMI

Miami and Ohio meet Wednesday in the 96th "Battle of the Bricks." Ohio has won this rivalry game 11 of the past 14 years under coach Frank Solich, including six straight times at home. But last year it was Miami pulling a 30-28 upset as four-point home underdogs. Both teams are 3-1 in conference play. In each case, the teams won their respective MAC openers, lost the next game, then have followed with two wins in a row. Neither played this past Saturday, obviously.Miami has gone 19-7 straight up its last 26 MAC games as coach Chuck Martin is doing a good job here. The last two wins have both been upsets as the Redhawks beat Northern Illinois 27-24 at home than Kent State 23-16 on the road. They've actually been favored only one time all season! Ohio was an underdog its last time out (+2), a 34-21 win at Ball State. Unlike past years, the Bobcats have not been invincible at home here in 2019. They've already lost twice, once to Louisiana and then to the Northern Illinois team that Miami recently defeated.  We expect this to be a close game that could go either way. Ohio's defense has been more than just a little "leaky" at home as they've given up 45, 39 and 38 points the last three times playing here. Is it any wonder that the Bobcats are 0-5 ATS as favorites this season? Play on MIAMI

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This is an 8* on TULANE

When you are as terrible as Tulane was last season, a coaching change is all but assured. The Green Wave finished 4-27 in 2018-19, a shockingly bad record when you consider they had a former NBA coach in Mike Dunleavy in charge of the program. Ron Hunter likely will never coach in the NBA, but he's a massive upgrade from Dunleavy in the college ranks. Tulane's new coach comes over from Georgia State, who he led to three NCAA Tournament appearances in the last five years, including one memorable 1st round upset.  Hunter did lose last year's leading scorer Caleb Daniels, who left for Villanova. But Hunter brought in four transfers of his own, one of them (Teshaun Hightower) likely to be the team's leading scorer this year. SE Louisiana also had a first year coach, David Keifer, who was previously an assistant here. But Keifer lost the top two scorers from last year's team and they accounted for about 33 points per game. Unlike Hunter and Tulane, Keifer doesn't seem to have an adequate way to replace that lost production. This is a big game for Hunter, who is looking to make a statement in his first game. It's a shockingly low number for a home game. Tulane should win by double digits. Play on TULANE

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This is a 10* play on CAL

Despite winning only eight games last year and being picked to finish last in the Pac 12, California actually has some optimism this year. They've got a new coach and landed a key transfer that could end up leading the team in scoring. Pepperdine is a middle of the road WCC team. It is definitely uncharted territory to see them laying points on the road against a team from a superior conference. Cal's new coach is Mark Fox. He previously spent nine years at Georgia where he had six winning seasons, five postseason appearances (two NCAA Tourney) and won 55% of his games. It's a good land for the Bears. Fox's first big land was grand transfer Kareem South. South comes over from Texas A&M-CC. Despite being an inexperienced team, this season opener is a game Cal can win. For what it's worth, the Bears covered the final five games last year. Play on CAL

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This is an 8* play on OKC

Orlando hasn't been very good against the spread thus far. They are just 1-4-1 ATS. Even more disturbing is the fact they have yet to score 100 points in a game. This is 2019, people! The Magic take the league's worst offense to Oklahoma City on Tuesday. This is a rebuilding year for the Thunder, but so far they've taken advantage of poor public perception to go 4-2 ATS. They have the same number of SU wins (2) as Orlando. This won't be the first time OKC has been favored either. The first is a game they'd like to forget as they lost outright here at home to the Wizards. But the next game saw them bounce back with a 120-92 win over Golden State (were -1.5), also at home. Orlando has lost both of its road games so far. They shot a horrendous 24.5% from three-point range in those games. They are averaging just 93.5 points/game overall. OKC won its last game, beating New Orleans 115-104 as a two-point favorite. That was despite being short-handed. Six players scored 10 or more points. Go ahead and lay this short number. Play on OKC.

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This is a 8* on FIU

Both of these teams have plenty of experience. FIU has four starters back from a team that won 20 games last year. Mississippi State also has four starters back, but one of them won't play here because of a suspension. Looking at the way the line has moved for this opening night matchup, it's pretty clear "sharp" money sides with the underdog. So do we. The player suspended for MSU is Nick Weatherspoon. He will miss the first 10 games of the season. He also missed the final 10 of last season for the same undisclosed violation of team rules. The Bulldogs season did not end well as they were upset in the first round of the NCAA Tournament by Liberty. The Bulldogs also didn't look very good in an exhibition against vs. South Alabama, winning that game by only three points. FIU isn't getting a ton of respect right now. Maybe that's because they did lose last year's leading scorer, Brian Beard (17.5 PPG). But the Panthers employ a system that will keep them competitive here. That system was brought over by coach Jeremy Ballard, who was previously at VCU. If you know anything about the way VCU plays, then you should now know what to expect with FIU. It's an up-tempo game where they'll force a lot of turnovers. FIU played at the fastest tempo in the country last season. They forced 10.6 steals/game, which was #1 in the country. Play on FIU

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This is an 8* play on OVER

This will be the first time since 2010 that Toledo hasn't had to lay double digits to Kent State. It's only the fourth meeting since then for the in-state rivals, but the short price shouldn't come as a total shock. Toledo has suffered some bad losses this year while Kent State looks improved. They've been outscored by 41 points in four MAC games, but if Toledo wins out they could very well win the West Division for the second time in three years. The problem is a leaky defense that has given up 86 points the last two weeks. After getting lambasted by Ball State (52-14), the Rockets barely beat Eastern Michigan last week, winning 37-34 in overtime. Toledo averages 35.2 PPG at home, which is two full touchdowns more than what they average outside the Glass Bowl. Kent State's defense is giving up nearly 500 yards/game on the road, so this easily could turn into a shootout Tuesday night. Last year was a 56-34 game, won by Toledo, who was an 11.5-point favorite. The Under is 6-0 in Toledo's last six Tuesday games. That's about to change. Take away the dreadful effort against Bowling Green (on the road) and the Rockets have scored plenty in almost every other game. Kent State took some lumps against Power 5 teams, but is an improved team on offense. Play OVER Kent State-Toledo

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This is a 10* play on the OVER

Arizona and Edmonton have each gone Over in their last three games. But both teams are certainly capable of scoring a lot of goals on any given not. Especially the Oilers when they are playing at home. So far, the Oilers are scoring an average of 3.8 goals in home games. But if the Oilers have a problem tonight, it's that they also give up a decent number of goals at home (3.3 per game). So with an average of more than 7 goals/game being scored in Edmonton home games, this number looks to be low. Arizona had a 3-0 shutout of Colorado last time we saw them. But it was their 1st shutout this season and just the 12th in the last three seasons. The Coyotes are among the league leaders when it comes to fewest number of goals, but we're rather suspicious of that continuing. They also give up a higher number of goals on the road compared to at home. The Over is 10-4 for Edmonton when off three or more consecutive Unders. The time is right for a high-scoring game. Play OVER Arizona-Edmonton. 

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This is a 10* on DALLAS

This is a line move that we don't agree with at all. All the trends support a play on the Cowboys as does all that we've seen on the field this year. Getting Dallas laying less than a touchdown here is a bonafide steal.Road teams are 23-12-1 ATS in division games this season. Furthermore, Dallas has gone 13-2 SU and ATS within its division the last 2+ seasons. This includes 5-0 SU and ATS vs. the Giants. The 'Boys are 7-0 SU/ATS L7 overall vs. the rest of the NFC East.The Giants are not a good home team. Going back to last year, they are just 2-9-1 ATS at MetLife Stadium including 1-7 as an underdog. The Cowboys really took it to the Giants in Week 1, winning 35-17. They come into this rematch well rested as last week was their bye. The Giants have lost four in a row. While only 4-3, Dallas has outscored opponents by 66 points (5th best margin) and they are outgaining opponents by 112.8 yards/game, also one of the top margins. The Cowboys have outgained all but one opponent this year. The Giants have outgained only two. Play on DALLAS

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This is a 10* on HOUSTON

Houston had high expectations coming into the season. So it has to feel terribly disappointing to be only 3-3 through six games.  Last night was a humiliating 129-100 loss in Miami where they trailed 46-14 at the end of the first quarter. The Rockets are now 0-6 ATS on the young season.They're not about to go 0-82 ATS though and that's our mindset coming into Monday's game at Memphis. The Grizzlies aren't a good team. They're 1-4 with the only win coming in overtime, by a single point, on a buzzer beater.  Russell Westbrook is being given tonight off. But his absence is built into this line. It's a short number, one that we don't mind laying. The Rockets have been favored in every game this season. The Grizzlies have been underdogs in all of their games. Houston's problem lies on the defensive end as they are last in the league in points allowed. Good for them then that they are facing a Memphis team that is 2nd to last in offensive efficiency. The Rockets are 5-1 ATS the last six meetings with Memphis. Look for them to continue that mastery. Play on HOUSTON

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This is an 8* play on the UNDER

This is a little bit like our Under play on last night's Flames-Capitals game. We've got a red hot team scoring a lot of goals. In this instance it's Boston, winners of five straight, a streak which has seen them find the back of the net a total of 24 times.Look for the pace to slow down tonight though with a visit from the always dangerous Penguins. Pittsburgh can score, but they've also allowed just three goals in the last three games. So, in our opinion, this has Under written all over it. Pittsburgh is giving up just 2.4 goals/game so far. Boston is even better at 2.1. At home, the Bruins allow just 1.6 goals/game. Both Bruins' numbers are the best in the NHL right now.The Under is actually 52-18-2 in the Penguins last 72 games! They are 22-4 Under their last 26 games vs. the Atlantic Division. A problem for Pittsburgh is that they are 0 for 19 on the power play the previous eight games. Forward David Backes is out for Boston. Play UNDER Pittsburgh-Boston

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This is a 10* on BALTIMORE

Baltimore has clearly been the recipient of some sharp action for this Sunday night duel with New England. We almost never want to fade the Patriots unless its a large spread, but this is the rare time to do so. The Ravens are off their bye and have gone 8-3 ATS in this situation under John Harbaugh. They are also rarely a home dog. The last 18 games here in Baltimore, the home team has been the favorite. New England hasn't exactly faced a murderer's row thus far. They've played Pittsburgh, Miami, the Jets twice, Buffalo, Washington, the Giants and Cleveland. None of those teams have winning records and four of the games have been against the three worset teams in the league. Substantial turnover margins have really been helping the Patriots so far. Baltimore has zero turnovers in four of its seven games. In a game where points could be at a premium, we want to be on the underdog. Also be cognizant of the Patriots problems in the kicking game. Play on BALTIMORE

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This is a 10* on the UNDER

This streak of Washington Overs has to end some time, right? The Capitals have gone Over in nine straight games with all nine seeing seven or more total goals scored. The Caps have handled the bulk of the scoring 41 goals in those nine games, which is kind of an insane number. One of the games was in Calgary and the Caps won there 5-3. The two times these teams played last year, both games also went Over. The Flames have produced some high scoring games themselves this season, but most have been at home. They are averaging just 2.3 goals/game on the road. This is the second game of a back to back for them as well. Last night saw them shutout Columbus 3-0. The Flames have gone Under both times they've been in a back to back this year. Washington allowed just one goal in its last game. Take away the third period and overtime of the Nashville game Thursday and Calgary has only six goals its last four games. Play UNDER Calgary-Washington

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This is a 10* on SACRAMENTO

Two of the dregs of the league play Sunday in the Big Apple as the 1-5 Kings play the 1-5 Knicks. Besides matching records, something else the teams have in common is that they are both were involved in a close game Friday. But the difference is Sacramento won theirs won the NY lost. The Kings first win of the season was against Utah and at home. They won 102-101 on a last second putback. Obviously, after an 0-5 start, they'd take a win anyway they can get it. But even before beating the Jazz, which is an impressive win by the way, there were signs of improvement. The Kings played much better against Charlotte and Denver then they did in the first three games. The Knicks lost on a last second shot Friday, 104-102 to Boston. Their only win came in a game where they had to rally from an 18-point deficit and that was against the Bulls. So New York pretty easily could be 0-6 right now. We understand there may be some hesitation to lay points with Sacramento away from home. But this is a really short number. They also beat the Knicks twice last year. It was easily forgotten because of the 0-5 start, but the Kings were supposed to be fairly competitive this year. The Knicks are still one of the worst teams in the league. No matter the opponent, we're glad to bet that they'll lose on any given night. A loss is all we need here. Play on SACRAMENTO

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This is an 8* on DENVER

The 2-5 Browns have not lived up to expectations this season and quite frankly neither have the 2-6 Broncos. The loser of this game is going to be in real trouble, especially if it's Denver. Cleveland at least has an easy schedule to look forward to, although at 2-6 the chances of making the playoffs would be quite small. The line for this game has moved considerably. That's because Joe Flacco is injured and Brandon Allen will start in his place for the Broncos. The offense wasn't scoring a ton with Flacco in there though. We actually don't believe Denver's offense is in substantially worse shape heading into this game, making them a good value play on the Week 9 card. The public, which was in love with the Browns at the start of the season, can't help itself when it sees a backup quarterback. They want to take the other side. But remember when Carolina started Kyle Allen for the first time? They were underdogs at Arizona, a ridiculous line in hindsight and not just because the Panthers won that game 38-20. First time starting QB's have torn it up this year, going a perfect 8-0 against the spread. Look for Allen to make it nine straight covers. It's not like Cleveland has been very impressive. They did win in Baltimore, but their only other win was against a Jets team down to its third string QB. The Browns are -48 in point differential. Denver is the team whose record probably should be a lot better. They've lost three games on last second field goals, including last week. The Broncos defense is giving up only 18.9 points/game and 304.5 yards/game, both of which are top 10 marks in the league. Play on DENVER

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This is an 8* on the UNDER

The Packers are 7-1 heading into this game and have won four straight. The Chargers are only 3-5, but did win last thanks to a missed field goal by the Bears. Even though they won, the Chargers offense gained only 231 total yards last week. They've scored more than 24 points in regulation just one time and that was against Miami. That's the only time since Week 1 that they've scored more than 20. The Under is 6-1 their last 7 games. The Over is 5-1 in Green Bay's last six games, so one of these teams O/U trends is going to cease. The Packers defense has been improved this year, giving up just 20.4 points/game. With Chargers games typically being so low scoring, signs point to that continuing this week. The Packers have faced a couple of bad offenses the last two weeks. The Chargers are giving up only 19.6 points/game. We love that the number has been bet up during the week. The Under is 5-2 for Green Bay following a game where they scored 30 or more points. Play UNDER Green Bay-LA Chargers

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This is a 10* play on the UNDER

Tampa Bay heads to Seattle desperate for a win. The Bucs are just 2-5 after blowing another lead and losing last week. Turning things around won't be easy though as the Seahawks are 6-2. We're calling for an Under. Seattle rarely blows anybody out. They have only one win by more than seven points all year. Last week's 27-20 win over Atlanta wasn't really that close though. The Seahawks led 24-0 at one point. The Falcons did much of their offensive damage in garbage time. Tampa Bay's last five games have gone Over. That has resulted in their highest O/U line to date. The same thing is true for Seattle. The number is too high. Tampa Bay has only gone over 26 points in two games. Seattle scored 27 last week, but just 16 the week before than and is actually scoring less at home where they are 0-4 ATS. The Seahawks lost their starting center for the season. That will have a major impact on the rest of the offensive line, if not the entire offense. One thing you shouldn't expect from this game is for Seattle to run the ball well. The Buccaneers are giving up only 69 yards rushing per game. That's the best mark in the league. Play UNDER Tampa Bay-Seattle

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This is a 10* on PITTSBURGH

It's a short week for the 3-4 Steelers, who had to come from behind to beat the winless Dolphins on Monday Night Football. They host the 5-2 Colts, who have yet to play a game that wasn't decided by seven points or less. We think the Steelers are set to pull off a "surprise" win at home.  Pittsburgh didn't cover Monday's game, but did end up winning comfortably. After spotting Miami an early 14-0 lead, the Steelers scored the game's final 27 points. They ended up outgaining the Dolphins 394-230. It was Mason Rudolph's first game back after sustaining a concussion against Baltimore. He got better as the game wen along. We actually played against the Steelers last week. But that was as a big favorite. They are 8-2 ATS the last ten times as an underdog. It's a short line this week and who knows where it'll end up by kickoff. But the bottom line is that Pittsburgh is a much better value this week than they were vs. Miami. Indianapolis is 5-2, but has been outgained this year and has a weak scoring differential. Last week was the third time they won a game by three points or less. They should be commended for how they've done in the wake of Andrew Luck's shocking retirement, but this is far from a dominant team. Pittsburgh's offensive line could be key in this game. They've allowed the fewest sacks in the league and could push around a Colts run defense that ranks near the bottom of the league. Play on PITTSBURGH

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This is a 10* play on the OVER

Philadelphia comes into this game with a 5-0 record. They are the only team in the league that hasn't lost a game yet. Oddsmakers are predicting the end of their unbeaten run tonight though as they are slight underdogs to a Portland team that has covered the spread in its last four games. We're playing the total though. Both teams are coming off games that went Under. The 76ers beat Minnesota 117-95 (total was 221.5) while Portland beat Oklahoma City 102-99 (total was 222). We think both teams, Portland especially, are capable of producing higher-scoring games. The big story for tonight is that Philly won't have Joel Embiid. He's been suspended for two games due to the fight with Karl Anthony-Towns. While most will focus on the effect Embiid's absence will have on the offensive end, don't be surprised when the Sixers slip defensively sans big man. The 99 points Portland allowed in their last game was a season-low. It also was against a bad team. At the same time, the 102 points the Blazers scored were also a season-low. The previous three games all saw a minimum of 223 points scored. Four other players besides Embiid were in double figures for the Sixers against Minnesota. They'll score plenty without him. Portland will see a drastic swing after playing its lowest scoring game of the year. Play OVER Philadelphia-Portland

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This is an 8* on SOUTH CAROLINA

South Carolina is 3-5 and off a surprising loss while Vanderbilt is 2-5 and off a surprising win. We believe last week's results set up a nice play on the favorite. Despite losing 41-21 to Tennessee last week, South Carolina actually led at halftime. That makes it three times this year that they've lost a game in which they led in the second half. They are better than their record. Vanderbilt has had all sorts of trouble covering the spread this year. They are 1-6 ATS and that one cover was two weeks ago, a stunning 21-14 upset of Missouri as three touchdown underdogs. The Commodores have only been favored two times, so it's mostly been them getting blown out. Despite being off a bye, QB Mo Hasan still has not been cleared to return from a concussion. Monitor his status. Three weeks ago, South Carolina stunned all of College Football by upsetting Georgia. They haven't won since! A loss to Florida wasn't that big of a deal but getting beat last week by Tennessee was certainly disappointing. The Gamecocks were actually four-point road favorites in the 41-21 loss. Because of what happened last week, look for South Carolina to come out very motivated Saturday night. They will be playing without RB Dowdle, but should still move the ball just fine against a Vandy defense that's giving up an average of 33.6 points per game. Stopping a Vandy offense that averages an SEC low 18.4 points/game shouldn't be a problem either. Vandy lost at home to UNLV for crying out loud. South Carolina is 23-4 all-time vs. Vanderbilt and has won 10 straight by an average of 11 points/game. Last year was a 23-point game in Columbia. Nothing changes this year. Play on SOUTH CAROLINA

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This is a 10* play on MEMPHIS

SMU (8-0) heads to Memphis (7-1) this week looking to stay undefeated. But they are underdogs to a team they haven't beaten in five years. Furthermore, the Mustangs have lost those five games by an average of 30 points/game. SMU is undoubtedly improved this year. But they've won a lot of games they easily could have lost. Wins over Arkansas State and TCU were decided by 7 and 3 points respectively. They needed overtime to beat a 2-win Tulsa team. Last week saw them get outgained by 125 yards in a 34-31 win at undermanned Houston. Memphis is also ranked and we feel they are pretty clearly the better team. While the Tigers did lose at Temple a few weeks ago and barely survived Tulsa last week, they've posted five double digit victories so far and also beat an SEC team (Ole Miss). We are calling for an end to SMU's unbeaten season as they should lose this game by double digits. Memphis is simply better, which is why they are the favorite. Well, that and they are at home. The Tigers have won 17 of the last 19 home games. A big key is that they allow just 18.5 points/game here at the Liberty Bowl. This is the end of the line for SMU, at least when it comes to their hopes of playing in the Cotton Bowl. We're seeing unbeaten teams drop like flies the past few weeks and this is going to be a rabid crowd they're in front of as this is a primetime, national TV game. Memphis is 7-0 ATS in November the last two years. Play on MEMPHIS

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This is a 10* play on the OVER

This rivalry may not mean what it used to, but the games are generally closely contested and emotions still run high. Florida State won a series record seven straight from 2010-16, but has lost the last two. The road team has won 9 of the last 13 matchups and 15 of the last 17 have been one-score games. Despite this, the favorite is 7-1 the last eight years. Neither team is ranked right now. But Miami is off a big upset win over Pitt, bringing them to 4-4 overall and 2-3 in the ACC. They beat Pitt 16-12 despite gaining only 208 total yards. That was the third time this season that the Hurricanes won a game in which they scored 17 points or fewer. Their four losses have all been by seven points or less with the difference being they've allowed an average of 30.5 points in the four losses as opposed to 8.25 in the four wins. Florida State is off a 35-17 win over Syracuse. They too are 4-4 overall, but they're 3-3 in conference play. The Seminoles have scored 31 or more points in all four wins this year while being held to just over 22 points/game in the four losses. With FSU being favored in this game, we should expect one of the better offensive showings. It's just the way it seems to work. It's interesting that their last five games have all stayed Under. But totals for those five games were all much higher than this one. This will be the lowest total for any Florida State game this season. While quarterback is a question mark for both teams, the running game isn't. Cam Akers has run for more than 300 yards in the last two games for Florida State. Miami RB DeeJay Dallas, who didn't play last week, averages 6.7 yards per carry. It is important to note that Jarren Williams is starting at QB for Miami. He began the season as the starter before hurting his shoulder. Williams is better than N'Kosi Perry, whom he replaced last week and then led the come from behind victory. Play OVER Miami-Florida State

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This is an 8* play on NEBRASKA

So much for that Nebraska improvement this year. Well, to be fair, the Cornhuskers are probably going to win more games in 2019 than they did in 2018. They've already equaled last season's win total of 4. But anyone thinking the Big 10 West would run through Lincoln has to be severely disappointed as the 'Huskers won't be winning the division this year. But Purdue won't either. The Boilermakers have been hit hard by injuries, specifically QB Elijah Sanders and WR Rondale Moore, which is most of their offense. Moore is questionable for Saturday after missing the last four games. Sindelar probably isn't coming back at this point. Backup Jack Plummer was a disaster last week vs. Illinois, going 7 of 19 for only 69 yards. He was benched twice, both times after turnovers that led to Illini scores. There was some thought to benching Plummer permanently, but coach Jeff Brohm changed his mind. So there's no clear direction in West Lafayette. Meanwhile, Nebraska is going to get back their starting QB back. Adrian Martinez should be the difference. Before the year, no one would have thought Nebraska would lose this game. They won't. Play on NEBRASKA

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This is an 8* play on SYRACUSE

Syracuse has lost three straight. Talk about a dropoff. The Orange were 10-3 last year, their best season in years. Losing a four-year starting QB meant they were probably going to struggle this year. But it's not necessarily been Tommy DeVito's fault that the team is 3-5. The offensive line has failed to protect him, giving up the most sacks in the country. The Cuse don't have a win over a Power 5 team yet. But that should change this week hosting Boston College. B.C. lost 59-7 at Clemson last week. That was their 4th loss in 6 games. While there have been seven upsets in the last nine meetings here and the visitor has won the last three, we don't see it happening again here. Boston College is giving up a lot more points than usual, including 38.7 points/game on the road. The defense is last in the ACC in third downs and at stopping the pass. The offense is totally one-dimensional with a backup QB. Syracuse remains a good home team, so they should cover this small number. They are also 8-3 ATS coming off a game where they scored 20 points or less. Play on SYRACUSE

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This is an 8* play on the UNDER

Northern Illinois is having a down year. Really, so is the entire MAC. Central Michigan has been one of the few pleasant surprises in the conference. After going 1-11 last season, the Chippewas are 5-4, but they did lose badly last week 43-20 at Buffalo. That came after three straight games scoring at least 38 points. The game at Buffalo still did go Over though, so that's four Overs in a row for CMU. Northern Illinois has gone Over three straight as they did all the scoring last week against Akron in a 49-0 win. But that was Akron. The Huskies aren't exactly a high-scoring outfit. They average just 21.2 points/game at home. They had only 71 yards passing against Akron, but didn't need any more than that as they had two defensive scores. Central Michigan also allowed a defensive score in its game last week. They also gave up two more touchdowns on drives that started inside their own 25-yard line. Take those defensive scores away and all of a sudden the games are a lot more low scoring. Play UNDER Northern Illinois-Central Michigan

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This is a 10* play on the OVER

The Lakers and Mavericks both come into this game at 3-1. The Lakers have won three straight following a season-opening loss to the Clippers. The Mavs just upset the Nuggets, in Denver, a nice bounce back from their first loss of the season (which was at home vs. Portland). Tonight marks the Lakers first real road game of the season. They were technically the road team against the Clippers, but that game was still played at the Staples Center. The Lakers defensive numbers probably need to be taken with a grain of salt as they've beaten some pretty weak offensive teams. Dallas has scored at least 108 points in all four of its games.There were three meetings between these teams last season. All three went Under. But all three totals were also much higher. The lowest O/U line of the three was 221. LeBron James didn't suit up for one of them.Not only will James play tonight for the Lakers, so will Anthony Davis, who was not on the team last year. Davis had 40 points and 20 rebounds in the last game, despite playing for only three quarters. Kyle Kuzma is set to make his season debut as well. Dallas is also stronger offensively this year with a healthy Kristaps Porizingis in the lineup. Nine Mavs were in double figures vs. Denver.The Over was 9-5 the last two years when the Lakers are on a three-game win streak. Play OVER Lakers-Mavs

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This is an 8* play on COLORADO

Colorado is enjoying a strong start to the season. They are 8-2-2 and lead the Central Division with 18 points. Tonight they will play host to a Dallas team whose nine losses are tied for most in the league. Seems like a mismatch to us.It's fair to call this a mismatch even though the Avalanche have lost two straight games. Both were at home, the last one (Wednesday vs. Anaheim) coming in overtime. They were pretty decent sized favorites for both of those games. It's hard for us to imagine them losing three in a row as home favorites. Dallas has won 4 of 5. But the last four games were all played at home. The Stars have yet to really look good on the road where they are averaging just 24.9 shots per game. Also, before this 4-1 stretch, they hadn't won a single time in regulation all year. We're looking at the big picture here, not falling for recency bias. The big problem for Colorado right now is injuries as two of their top three players (Landeskog and Rantanen) are out. But they still held a two goal lead in the third period against Anaheim. They should have won. The Stars scored a season-high six goals in their most recent game. But they still are averaging just 2.2 goals/game for the year. Colorado averages 3.9. Play on COLORADO

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This is an 8* play on SAN ANTONIO

San Antonio has the odd juxtaposition of having won every game straight up, but having lost all of them against the spread. They are 3-0 SU/0-3 ATS, which isn't really something you see all that often, whether at the start of the year or at any point, really. So this is obviously the first time they've been an underdog this season and it comes against a Clippers team playing in the second game of a back to back. Kawhi Leonard was given last night off and the Clippers faded badly down the stretch, losing to the Jazz 110-96. Paul George has yet to play at all this season. Like the Spurs, the Clippers have also failed to cover three in a row. The team isn't going to continue shooting almost 40% from three-point land. The Spurs come into their first road game fully healthy and will be highly motivated to beat former teammate Leonard. In their last game, the Spurs caught Portland in the second game of a back to back and led that one by as much as 19 points. Play on SAN ANTONIO

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This is a 10* on ARIZONA

We'd be surprised if Arizona (3-4-1) won this game. However, it's a lot of points to be getting at home. The 49ers may be unbeaten (7-0), but there's been only one game this year where they were favored by more than six points. It was against Washington (-10) and they won 9-0. This is a division road game and a short week. As impressive as the Niners looked in Sunday's 51-13 beatdown of the Panthers, we disagree with the early line move. The Cardinals had won three in a row prior to facing New Orleans last week. While the Saints ended up beating them 31-9, it was actually a one-score game entering the 4th quarter. The 49ers have not beaten the Cardinals since 2014. They're on an eight-game losing streak in this NFC West rivalry. Only two of the last 11 meetings have been decided by greater than 10 points. Last week was San Francisco's highest scoring game of the season while it was Arizona's lowest scoring game of the season. Neither performance is really representative of what you're likely to see this week. The 49ers are 15-32-4 ATS their L51 games following a win by two touchdowns. Arizona is 8-2 ATS after giving up 30 or more points the previous game. Play on ARIZONA

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This is a 10* on BAYLOR

Baylor is 7-0 and ranked #12 in the country heading into Thursday night's clash with 3-4 West Virginia. Normally, this might be a spot you'd want to fade the undefeated team, but Baylor is well rested and out for revenge. They've lost the last three times they've played the Mountaineers, but obviously circumstances were a lot different. It was WVU ranked each of those three years while Baylor has been rebuilding under Matt Rhule. That rebuild is now over as the Bears are the only Big 12 team without a conference loss. West Virginia is now the one rebuilding under a first year coach and several freshman are playing in key positions. While there have been a fair number of close calls for Baylor, they sure impressed us when they went into Stillwater two weeks ago and beat Oklahoma State 45-27. Aside from an upset over NC State, West Virginia has not impressed anybody. They've lost three straight - all by double digits - and the last two weeks have seen the offense do next to nothing. They scored 14 points against both Iowa State and Oklahoma while the defense gave up 90. QB Kendall is averaging just 10 yards per completion and has 7 interceptions. The running game is really bad, averaging only 88 yards/game, which is sixth worst in the entire country. The Baylor offense ranks 12th in the country, averaging 38.9 points/game. The defense allows just 19.1 points/game. We are surprised to see WVU is just 2-11 SU and 3-9-1 ATS as an underdog the past three seasons (1-4 in 2019). Expect a blowout. Play on BAYLOR

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This is a 10* play on WASHINGTON

There's a lot to digest coming into the first ever World Series Game 7 where two former Cy Young winners will be starting. The road team has won all six games so far, which is really surprising given how good of a home team the Astros are. Even with the three losses to the Nationals, Houston's record at Minute Maid Park is 65-25 this year and they have scored 159 more runs than they have allowed in those 90 games. Only one time, a three-game losing streak to Oakland last month, have the Astros lost more than two in a row at home in 2019. Thus, with everything on the line tonight, we can't see them losing a 4th straight home game. We just can't. While many inside the Washington clubhouse are probably ecstatic over the fact Max Scherzer gets to start Game 7, he is a huge question mark after being scratched from Game 5 because of neck spasms. Those spasms reportedly led to him being unable to even lift his arm. Scherzer probably still pitches well, but won't match Zack Greinke, whose only quality start this postseason was the one time he got to start at home. Going back to the start of the series, the Astros were the biggest WS favorite since 2007. Though it always hasn't been apparent, they do have the better bullpen. We like Houston to win the Fall Classic at home. Play on HOUSTON

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THis is a 10* on the UNDER

While all the focus remains on the fact the home team is 0-6, the only game to go Under in this World Series was Game 3 in Washington and that was with the pitchers having to come up to bat. But with the stakes at their highest and two starters the caliber of Scherzer and Greinke going in Game 7, we're calling for a low-scoring game. Greinke's only WS start was Game 3 and he held the Nationals to one run in 4 2/3 IP. Tonight marks just the second time Greinke has started at home in these playoffs. The first was his best outing of the postseason as he went six innings and held the Yankees to three runs. His home ERA and WHIP for the year are 3.61 and 1.055 respectively. But Grienke isn't the only former Cy Young winner pitching tonight. Scherzer, who was scratched from Game 5 due to neck spasms, makes it the first ever WS Game 7 where two former Cy Youngs are starting. Assuming Scherzer is okay, he too should pitch well here. He has a 2.49 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 14 road starts. His last three starts overall have yielded a 1.42 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. Really, we shouldn't have to delve too deep into how good the two starters here truly are. It's surprising that the Over is 5-1 in this series considering the home team has averaged just 2.0 runs/game! Under is 6-1 last seven times Grienke has started on four days rest. Under is also 9-2 Scherzer's last 11 Interleague starts. Play UNDER Washington-Houston

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This is a 10* play on the UNDER

The Bulls previous three games have all stayed Under, which should not be a shock as it's not like this is a great offensive team. They were held to 84 points by Toronto in a home loss on Saturday. Then they scored only 98 in a loss to the Knicks on Monday. That game against the Raptors saw them shoot less than 30% from the field, which is about as poor a field goal percentage as you're going to see all season. The good news is they haven't allowed the opponent to score more than 108 points in any of those last three games. The Cavs will be happy to see Chicago after they gave up 129 points in a loss to Milwaukee Monday night. You may recall we laid the points with the Bucks there, a winning ticket. Before getting shredded by the Bucks, Cleveland allowed only 94 and 99 points in its first two games. They shot well in the home opener vs. Indiana, but don't expect too many night like that this season as the Cavs figure to be a pretty weak offensive team. They were held to 85 points in the season opener vs. Orlando. The Bulls aren't favored very often, but when they are the game usually goes Under (13-8 L3 seasons). Play UNDER Chicago-Cleveland

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This is a 10* play on the UNDER

The 2-1 Lakers are big favorites over the 1-2 Grizzlies tonight and we want no part of that number. But we do like the total as the Lakers have been surprisingly effective on the defensive end of the floor in their three games. The last two, both of which were home, really saw them keep the opponent in check. After beating Utah 95-86 on Friday, LA held Charlotte to 101 in a blowout win Sunday night. The Lakers also happened to have their best shooting night of the young season against the Hornets, making nearly 53% of their field goal attempts. That shouldn't happen here against the gritty Grizzlies, who have yet to allow an opponent to shoot even 48% from the field. Misleading final from the last Memphis game where they beat Brooklyn 134-133. Game went to overtime and neither really shot the ball all that well. In the first two games, the Grizzlies finished with field goal percentages of 42.7 and 41.5 and point totals of 101 and 102. Previous two seasons have seen the Grizz go 3-0 Under the game after scoring 130 points or more. Play UNDER Memphis-LA Lakers

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This is an 8* play on WASHINGTON +1.5

The big question here is can the Nationals stay alive and force a Game 7 in the World Series? Honestly, we don't know. But we are willing to bet on the fact they won't lose Game 6 by more than a run. What we do know is the road team is a perfect 5-0 in this series. That includes a 12-3 victory by Washington in Game 2, which was right here in Houston and had the same exact starting pitching matchup we have tonight. It's Stephen Strasburg vs. Justin Verlander. Strasburg has just as good of numbers as Verlander for the year and has been better in the playoffs. Verlander has allowed four runs in three of his five postseason starts. The Nationals have won the last six times Strasburg has started, four of those coming in the playoffs. All six starts during the win streak have been quality ones with Strasburg going a total of 38 innings and allowing just eight runs. He has 52 strikeouts vs. just 5 walks. Washington is 23-13 since 2017 when coming off three straight losses. At this price, Strasburg +1.5 is a bargain. Play WASHINGTON RUN LINE (+1.5)

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This is a 9* play on the UNDER

The amount of scoring in Capitals games has gotten fairly outrageous, so it's no shock to see this game with the Maple Leafs have a high total. These are the two highest scoring teams in the league right now with Washington's 50 goals leading the way and Toronto not far behind at 46. Additionally, both have given up their fair share with the Caps having surrendered the most in their division and the Leafs allowing two more than that. The Over is 7-0 in Washington's last seven games. But here's the thing. All good streaks must come to an end. Seven straight games with seven or more goals scored is quite the streak. It's not something you see all that often. So even though this particular matchup seems the most conducive to producing an Over and everyone is on the Over, don't be shocked when this one stays Under. Though they've had three days off, tonight's game marks the end of a long five-game road trip (most of it in Canada) for the Capitals. They may not have much left in the proverbial tank. Toronto scored just two goals in its last game, which was a loss to Montreal. Play UNDER Washington-Toronto

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This is an 8* play on DENVER

While this seems like a bit of a "square" play, fact is the Kings aren't a very good team right now. They've opened with three straight losses and all of them have been by double digits. Getting blown out by Phoenix to start the season was a troubling sign. But even worse than that 29-point defeat was losing Marvin Bagley III, who is one of their top players. Bagley is expected to be out for at least a month. Something else that seems "out" in Sacramento is defense. They have let every opponent shoot 50% or better. Saturday night, they were buried in Utah, 113-81. Now they must face Denver, who is 2-0 and doing an excellent job defensively. Being 2-0 while barely shooting 40% overall is actually a good sign for a Nuggets team we know can score. Our guess is they find the offensive touch tonight. Another of Sacramento's key players, De'Aaron Fox is battling a hip injury as well. We just can't see this being a close game as the Nuggets are 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS the last seven meetings. Play on DENVER 

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