This is an 8* on CLEVELAND 

Any time the Indians score a ton of runs, like they did last night, they are a virtual lock to win. Yesterday 10-1 win here in Kansas City improved the Tribe to an amazing 17-2 when scoring at least three runs. With them facing Junis today, we think they’ll easily get to three runs. Junis has allowed at least five runs four of the last five times he’s faced Cleveland. He also has a 1.58 WHIP in his three 2020 starts, none of which have lasted a full five innings. Triston McKenzie has looked great for Cleveland in his two starts, both of which the team has won. He’s allowed just three runs and five hits in 10 innings and has 13 strikeouts. Cleveland is allowing just 2.9 runs/game for the season, the fewest in all of baseball. The Royals have scored just five runs in their last three games and only three in this series. Play on CLEVELAND

AAA

This is a 10* on VAN +1.5 (PL)

We’ve gone 10-1 when playing the puck line in 2020 including a perfect 5-0 since the restart. Opportunities are obviously getting scarce as the playoffs progress with money lines tightening up. But here is a chance to take the Canucks +1.5 when everyone has likely “given up” on them. We didn’t give up on Vancouver in Game 2 when they were coming off a 5-0 loss in the series opener. Now they’ve lost Games 3 and 4 by scores of 3-0 and 5-3. Those games were played on back to back days following three days off due to the protests. Now the Canucks find themselves needing a win to stay alive in this best of seven series. Whether or not they can pull that off remains to be seen but we do like them to at least stay within one goal of the Golden Knights in Game 5. They had the lead going into the third period of Game 4, 2-1, but then gave up three goals in the span of 5:57. The only other time that the Canucks were off two straight losses here in the bubble, they came up big, beating St. Louis 4-3 to take control of the last series. They are 7-2 the L9 times playing on one day’s rest. Play on VANCOUVER +1.5 (PUCK LINE)

This is a 10* on UNDER

The Dodgers are in a lot better shape than the Dbax right now and that’s why they’re a big favorite to win Tuesday. Los Angeles currently holds the best record in baseball at 26-10 and they are WAY out in front of everyone else with a +90 run differential. Arizona is last in the division with a 14-21 record and has lost 9 of its last 10. With it being highly likely the Dodgers will come up to bat only eight times in this game, we’re predicting an Under. Earlier in the year, these teams played a four game series in Arizona. The Dodgers won three of the games and the Under hit three times as well. The Dbax scored just 10 runs in the four games. They’ve scored no more than two runs in 7 of the last 10 ballgames. The Under is 5-0 their last five road games. On the bright side, Young has allowed three runs or less in every start. Urias held the Dbax to two runs and five hits in the earlier series. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is an 8* on the OVER

Bettors (even some sharp ones!) seem content to think that eventually a Denver game is going to go Under the total. It’s happened only one time in the bubble (out of a possible 14 games) and most of the games have gone way Over. Take this series where the six games have averaged 234.3 points/game. Yet oddsmakers keep setting low totals and bettors keep taking the bait. Not us. The only Under for the Nuggets in the bubble required an ugly 87-point effort from them. Other than that, most games have gone Over by double digits. In battling back to force this Game 7, Denver has turned in a bubble-best defensive performance two games in a row, allowing just 107 points in both wins. We don’t trust them to do so again though. Each team has a player (Utah - Mitchell, Denver - Murray) that could set a new NBA record for most points in a playoff series tonight. The Jazz have been pretty bad defensively in the bubble as well. They’ve allowed at least 110 points in all but three games. The Over is 16-5 the last 21 times the Jazz have been off a loss. Play on OVER

This is a 7* on MILWAUKEE

The Tigers have won five in a row, including a three-game sweep of the Twins over the weekend, and now are 16-16 on the year. Being at .500, even through only 32 games, is a massive achievement for a club that won only 47 of its 161 games played last season while it was outscored by 333 runs. But look for the “good times” to come to an end on Tuesday when the Tigers visit Milwaukee. The five straight wins have all taken place at home. The Brewers, who were home over the weekend and won two of three vs. Pittsburgh, are a team to be trusted in this price range at Miller Park. They’ve won all three times this year as a home favorite of -175 or higher. Michael Fulmer starts for Detroit and that’s a problem. While the team is 3-2 in Fulmer’s five starts thus far, the pitcher has an 8.79 ERA. He’s not exactly putting his team in position to win with zero of his starts lasting longer than three innings. The Tigers have lost 36 of their last 51 series openers. Lindblom should pitch well enough for the home team to win this one. Play on MILWAUKEE

AAA

This is an 8* on Khachanov

This is a first round match in the U.S. Open Tournament. Khachanov, the 11-seed, should roll against the unseeded Sinner. This is the first ever meeting. Khachanov had a breakthrough 2018, which included a win over Novak Djokovic in the Paris Masters, before suffering through a disappointing 2019. At one point he was ranked as high as 8th in the world. His return to the court last week saw him make the third round of the Western & Southern Open. Sinner has been labeled as an “up and comer” but has never been ranked higher than 68th in the world. He’s currently 74th and has not played since February. This is a good price on the favorite. Play on Khachanov

AAA

This is an 8* on COLORADO

Back on August 16th, the Stars trailed Calgary 4-3 and were 12 seconds away from falling behind in that series 3-1. But then they tied the game, won it, and what has ensued has been a stunning run of goal scoring by a team not known for having a prolific offense. Dallas has won 6 of its last 7 games, scoring 33 goals in the process, and now can eliminate Colorado with yet another win tonight. The absurdity of this scoring outburst by the Stars has to be read to be believed. In what turned out to be the close out game vs. Calgary, they fell behind 3-0 before even getting a shot on goal. They then scored seven straight goals of their own, marking the first time in NHL Playoff history a team won by 3+ goals in a game in which it trailed by 3+ goals. This series has seen them score 4+ goals in every game, but despite having a 3-1 series lead, they have been outshot by a fairly wide margin. The last five games have seen the Stars score on 17.7% of their shot attempts, which is just crazy. While many will point the finger at Avs goalie Pavel Francouz (starting in place of the injured Philipp Grubauer), the fact is they’ve led by two goals in two of the four games. Dallas goalie Khudobin had never made a playoff start before this year and should still be considered unproven. Colorado has scored 4 or more goals 4 times in the last 6 games, so it should be better than 3-3 in that stretch. Look for them to win this do or die game. Play on COLORADO

AAA

This is a 10* on UNDER

The return of Russell Westbrook led to a very easy Game 5 victory for the Rockets. They won by 34, 114-80, and can now eliminate Westbrook’s former team for good. Westbrook didn’t even do much scoring Saturday. He had just 7 pts in 23 minutes of action. James Harden scored his usual 31 while the Rockets held the Thunder to 31.5% shooting overall and a woeful 7 of 46 on 3-pt attempts. It certainly didn’t help OKC’s cause that they lost Dennis Schroeder in the second quarter to an ejection. He had 19 points at the time he was tossed. While we certainly expect the Thunder to have a better offensive showing here than they did in Game 5, it won’t be enough to send this one Over. There’s been only one game in the series that the Thunder have scored more than 108 in regulation. Even Houston has averaged “only” 113.8 points/game for the series, including the one overtime loss. OKC is 22-10 Under this season with the total at 220 points or higher. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

The Indians have done a remarkable job at run prevention this year, leading to the Under cashing in 67% of their games (22-11-1). Not far behind in the Under department is division foe Kansas City (20-12-2 Under) and these teams open up a three-game series on Monday. Before you go thinking Under, note Cleveland did just give up seven runs yesterday in a loss to St. Louis. (The Cardinals were our 10* Game of the Month, by the way). The Tribe had also scored 14 runs of their own in a win Friday. So two of the three games in the last series did go Over. Most Royals totals are higher than this one, which explains their YTD Under mark. Don’t let a pitching matchup of Bieber vs. Keller scare you off either. Bieber’s ERA vs. KC is 4.33. Keller’s last start saw him allow 10 baserunners in only 4 innings as the Royals lost 9-3. Before losing 5-2 to the White Sox on Sunday, the Royals had scored five or more runs in four straight games. It doesn’t take much to go Over a total like this and we think the Indians and Royals will “get there.” Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on DENVER

The Nuggets are one more loss away from their season ending. This was also the case heading into Game 5 which they won 117-107 to stay alive. Before staying alive in Game 5, we took the points with Denver in Game 4 and they also covered the spread there. They are now 5-0 ATS the last two seasons when trailing in a playoff series after covering the last two games. Utah is 5-12 ATS when coming off an outright loss as a favorite this year. They are just 1-4 ATS when leading in a playoff series the last two years. The Jazz have very little to offer offensively other than Donovan Mitchell, something that has become readily obvious in their two SU losses in this series. Play on DENVER

AAA

This is a 10* on COLORADO

Down 0-2 to the Stars in this best of seven, the Avalanche desperately needed to win Game 3. We took the Avs on the money line and they did win, 6-4. We'll take them again in Game 4. Colorado entered this series as a decided favorite, but has lost its starting goalie Philipp Grubauer and all of a sudden Dallas has become some sort of offensive juggernaut, scoring 14 goals in the series. That’s a far cry from when these teams faced off in the round robin and the Avs won 4-0. Interestingly enough, that was with backup Francouz between the pipes. While you could argue that win was an anomaly (it’s had been the only time the Avs had beaten the Stars in seven tries this season, prior to Game 3), we still believe Colorado to be the better team. You can’t forget how they closed out the Arizona series with two straight 7-1 victories. Look for Dallas’ offensive surge to eventually slow down as they’ve been outshot in the series and the Avs have scored six or more goals in three of the last five games themselves. Play on COLORADO

AAA

This is a 10* on STL

After getting rocked 14-2 on Friday, the Cardinals played a much closer game against the Indians on Saturday. But as we know, “close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades.” The Redbirds still lost 2-1, a game that went extra innings, and now face the possibility of being swept in their own ballpark. We think they’ll rise to the occasion Sunday behind Adam Wainwright, whose four starts have gone very well. He has a 2.88 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. This is a veteran pitcher that knows how to step up in this spot. Solving Cleveland’s pitching is something few teams have been able to do in 2020, but it shouldn’t take many runs for the Cardinals to win this game. The Indians entered the series with the 4th lowest team batting average and they are hitting just .208 on the road. With Civale starting, they are just 3-3 this season and have scored two runs or less in all three losses. The Cardinals are 42-17 L59 after losing the first two games of a series. Play on ST. LOUIS

AAA

This is a 10* on UNDER

The second round of the NBA Playoffs gets underway Sunday with the Celtics taking on the Raptors. These teams have already met one time in the bubble and the result was an impressive 122-100 beatdown by the Celtics. That’s the only loss by the Raptors since the restart. They swept Brooklyn in the first round, winning three of the four games by double digits including a 150-point effort in the close out. Boston also swept its first round series as they faced an undermanned Philadelphia squad. That series was a bit tighter and certainly lower-scoring as Boston held the Sixers to 106 points or fewer in all four games. We saw what they did to Toronto, holding them to 42.7% shooting (26.3% on 3’s) back on 8.7. These are two of the top defensive teams in the league. The Raptors held the Nets under 100 points in two of the four first round games and below 40% shooting in three of the games. Not to be outdone, Boston has held seven of its last eight opponents under 43% shooting. Gordon Hayward is out for the Celtics while Kyle Lowry could miss this game for the Raptors. The longer than expected layoff should have a negative effect on all remaining shooters. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is a 6* on MINNESOTA

Not only have the Tigers won six of their last eight, they surprisingly swept the Twins in a doubleheader Saturday, winning by scores of 8-2 and 4-2. Those losses dropped the Twins, now losers of four straight, out of first place in the Central Division. However, we’ll look for them to bounce back in a major way Sunday as they send Maeda to the hill. Maeda has a 5-1 team start record, 2.21 ERA and 0.71 WHIP. He’s allowed no more than three runs in any of the six starts. In the past, the Twins have been very dominant as a larger road favorite, owning a 14-4 mark the L18 times they’ve been priced at -175 or higher. Detroit is going with Mize on the mound today. He has given up more runs in his two starts then Maeda has given up in his last five. It’s a huge pitching mismatch on Sunday and the Twins offense can remain dormant for only so long. They are 26-14 L40 games vs. the Tigers. Play on MINNESOTA

AAA

This is a 10* on UNDER

This series is tied 1-1 and both sides have scored five times in their respective victories. Game 1 was a 5-0 Vegas shutout, but Vancouver bounced back to win 5-2 in Game 2 and even things up. It’s time for a lower-scoring Game 3 as the Canucks got those five Game 2 goals on only 27 shots. Their shooting percentage this postseason is a crazy 11.6% and even higher (12.2%) the past five games. They’re averaging 3.2 goals per game in the playoffs on just 27.9 shot attempts. For the frame of reference, Vegas has averaged 3.7 goals on 36.3 shots per game. Both teams scoring rates are due to come down. The Under is 3-1 for the Golden Knights this postseason when the total is 6.0. No Vancouver game has had a total of 6.0 so far. The Under is also 4-0 the last four times Vegas has been off a game where they allowed 5 or more goals. Don’t see either team scoring five goals in Game 3. Play on UNDER

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This is a 10* on PORTLAND

Portland won’t have Damian Lillard as they try and stave off elimination in tonight’s Game 5 against the Lakers. After an 8-2 start to the bubble, they’ve lost three straight games, two of them by 20 or more points. None of the preceding sounds good for tonight. But, predictably, there’s been an overreaction by the oddsmakers here in the wake of the Lillard injury. They had to do it as the public will overwhelmingly bet the Lakers here. But we’re not convinced the line move should have been 7 points. Even without their best player, look for Portland to compete. Beyond its two stars - LeBron and Anthony Davis - the Lakers don’t have much depth, especially in the backcourt. Los Angeles is also a poor three-point shooting team. They made 56.3% of their shots in Game 4, a number they won’t come close to matching tonight. Games 2 and 4 are the only double digit wins the Lakers have in the bubble. The Blazers have some players, notably CJ McCollum, who can step up. They are 4-1 ATS off a double digit loss. We think the extra time between games well help the Blazers adjust to "life without Lillard." Play on PORTLAND

AAA

This is a 10* on ARIZONA

Arizona broke its 8-game losing streak last night and did so in convincing fashion, beating the Giants 7-4. They were up 7-1 heading into the ninth in what was also a revenge spot as the Dbax had been swept in San Francisco last weekend. We told you to take the Dbax Friday and the same holds true tonight. While they may not have the same distinct scheduling advantage they held going into yesterday’s game (had Thursday off while SF played a doubleheader) nor is the starting pitching matchup as lopsided, the Dbax remain the play. The Giants had scored only one run in 22 innings before putting a rather meaningless three on the board in the ninth last night. Cahill’s numbers may look good, but he’s walked a lot of batters and hasn’t gone longer than 5 ⅓. He beat Weaver and Arizona in his last start, 6-1, but Weaver actually pitched every bit as well. That was a failure of the Dbax bullpen. We don’t think the Giants are very good. Their recent seven-game win streak was a mirage and Arizona is the better team. Trust us on that. Play on ARIZONA

AAA

This is an 8* on ARIZONA

Arizona has lost eight in a row. The last three losses were all to the Colorado Rockies, at home and by one run margins. San Francisco had won a season-high seven straight, but was then shut out in both games of a doubleheader yesterday (against the Dodgers). Like every other game in this report, this play is born out of revenge as last weekend saw the Dbax lose three games in SF. They scored only four runs the entire series. But the fact they were off yesterday (protest) while the Giants played twice gives the home team a big advantage in this one as they look to atone for last weekend’s embarrassing performance. Another advantage is having Zac Gallen on the mound for tonight’s opener. Gallen has a 7-1 TSR at Chase Field in his career with a 2.27 ERA. He has 56 strikeouts in those eight starts and has held opposing hitters to an .187 average. Giants starter Anderson has started four times on the road this year and has a 5.94 ERA and 1.62 WHIP.  Play on ARIZONA

AAA

This is a 7* on MILWAUKEE

Revenge is going to be the “commonality” in this 3-game report Friday and we start with a Milwaukee team that suffered an embarrassing three-game sweep last weekend in Pittsburgh. Sweeping that series accounts for 33% of the Pirates’ wins this season! They are just 6-19 otherwise and that’s even including the fact they’ll come into this series on a two-game win streak. Both of those wins came Thursday in a doubleheader sweep of St. Louis. Milwaukee also played in a doubleheader yesterday, although they lost both games to Cincinnati. Despite how the last seven days have gone, the Brewers still remain decided favorites for this rematch from last weekend as they should. We just can’t see them losing as a big favorite to Pittsburgh a fourth straight time. Though he did pitch well in last weekend’s series, Holland still has an 8.04 ERA and 1.72 WHIP his last three starts for the Bucs. Milwaukee’s Burnes has started three times, all on the road, and has a 3.29 ERA. Pittsburgh is 0-6 so far this season as a road underdog of +175 to +250. Play on MILWAUKEE

AAA

This is a 10* on the YANKEES

This play is on the first game of today’s doubleheader, which was necessitated by last weekend’s cancellations due to positive COVID tests within the Mets clubhouses. Even though both of today’s games are being played at Yankee Stadium, the Yankees will be the designated home team for only this first game. Both games are also only seven innings due to this year’s rules on doubleheaders. That the Yankees come up to bat last in this first game has little to do with why we are taking them. It’s more so that they enter as the more desperate team as they are on a five-game losing streak. Yesterday was always going to be an off-day for them. Meanwhile, the Mets (along with the Marlins) walked off the field for their scheduled game Thursday in protest. The Yankees are 10-4 at home so far and the fact they are coming off a “normal” off day gives them the advantage. They are averaging 6.3 runs/game in this ballpark, so whether they come up to bat first or last is really immaterial. Also important is that starter Montgomery’s team start record at home is 3-0 with a 2.93 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. The Mets are starting Wacha, whose numbers are not good (6.43 ERA, 1.64 WHIP), and the team is 0-3 so far as a road dog of +125 to +175. Play on NY YANKEES

AAA

This is a 10* on COLORADO

Down 0-2 to the Stars in this best of seven, the Avalanche desperately need to win Game 3 and we think they’ll come through. Colorado entered this series as a decided favorite, but has lost its starting goalie Philipp Grubauer and all of a sudden Dallas has become some sort of offensive juggernaut, scoring five times in both wins. That’s a far cry from when these teams faced off in the round robin and the Avs won 4-0. For the record, that was with backup Francouz between the pipes. Maybe that was an anomaly as it’s the only time the Avs have beaten the Stars in seven meetings this season. But we’re willing to look past that head to head record as we still believe Colorado to be the better team. You can’t forget they closed out the Arizona series with two straight 7-1 victories. Look for Dallas’ sudden offensive surge to slow down as they’ve been outshot in both games (40-27 in Game 2) and the Avs are 6-0 the last six times they’ve been off a loss by 3 goals or more. Play on COLORADO

AAA

This is a 10* on VANCOUVER +1.5

Game 1 probably couldn’t have gone much worse for the Canucks as they lost 5-0 to the Golden Knights. Despite taking the Knights ourselves, even we were taken aback by how one-sided the game got. But now we expect the Canucks to bounce back in Game 2 and at least keep the score within one goal. Prior to being blown out in Game 1, Vancouver had won 7 of 9 games with just one loss in regulation. Vegas has four one-goal victories in the bubble and won two other games in which they trailed by at least two goals. It can be argued that Game 1 was the Knights best game since the restart. It was certainly Vancouver’s worst effort. The Canucks were also shut out in their first game (3-0 by Minnesota) but then came back to win the next five. That they have never beaten Vegas in regulation all-time is pretty shocking. They have won Game 2 in both previous series. Expect a much closer Game 2 with Vancouver possibly pulling the upset. Play on VANCOUVER +1.5

AAA

This is a 7* on SAN DIEGO

This is a complete mismatch. San Diego is 18-12 at the halfway mark and the hottest team in baseball, having won seven in a row. They just swept the Astros. While Seattle also swept its last series, that was against a bad Texas team. The Mariners were only 8-19 on the year before that sweep. Still with one of the worst run differentials in either league (-38), Seattle just isn’t capable of beating a quality opponent like the Padres, who are already 7-0 against the American League this season. The Mariners had one other three-game win streak this year. Not only did they lose their next time out, they proceeded to lose 14 of the next 17 games. Chris Paddack toes the rubber here for San Diego and he has a 2.66 ERA and 0.97 WHIP at home where the team has gone 10-4. Marco Gonzalez has pitched well for Seattle but Tuesday’s starter is going to have to deal with the Padres offense that has averaged 8.0 runs/game during its win streak. It seems unlikely Gonzalez will pitch well tonight. Play on SAN DIEGO

AAA

This is a 10* on UNDER

Luka Doncic didn’t just play in Game 4, he dominated with an incredible stat line of 43-17-13 and hit the game winner in overtime to tie this series up at 2-2. The last three games, two of which were Dallas wins, have gone Over the total. Game 4 would have gone Over even without the extra period. The wild swings we saw in that game - with the Clippers leading by as many as 21 in the second quarter and the Mavs by as many as 12 in the third quarter - probably aren’t going to take place tonight. In fact, we’re anticipating a slightly more “defensive affair” even though the O/U line has hit the high point of the series. That’s an obvious reflection on the previous three games, but it’s also giving us some value. The Clippers are 11-3 Under this season after scoring 130 or more points in their previous game. Dallas has shot 50% or better in each of the last three games, which seems unlikely to continue given the Clippers are a solid defensive team. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is a 10* on COLORADO

Colorado didn’t see Dallas coming in Game 1. They were blitzed early, as they allowed three goals in the first period, and could never catch up (lost 5-3). Now the favored Avalanche find themselves in a bit of a must win against a team they’ve only beaten once in six tries this season. That one time was 4-0 in the round robin round though and it’s fair to say the Avs are the better team here, despite the recent surge in scoring by the Stars. Colorado has lost goalie Grubauer to a groin injury, but it’s interesting to note that it was his backup (Francouz) that was between the pipes for the aforementioned 4-0 shutout earlier this month. The Avs are 15-6 after allowing 4 or more goals in the previous game and 21-12 in revenge spots this year. They have yet to lose two straight in the bubble where they have outshot opponents by a considerable margin. Play on COLORADO

AAA

This is a 10* on UNDER

It wasn’t a good weekend for either of these two National League Central clubs. The Reds lost three of four in St. Louis while Milwaukee got swept in Pittsburgh. The Reds have managed to score just 10 runs in the last five games and were shut out twice. The Brewers have scored all of 12 runs in their last four games. Expect this to be a low-scoring opener with Bauer pitching for Cincy. He has a 0.68 ERA and 0.57 WHIP in four starts, placing him among the very best starters in the league. Bauer has allowed just two runs so far and has worked 26 ⅓ innings. On August 7th, he held Milwaukee to one run and three hits in six innings and had 12 strikeouts. Milwaukee’s Brett Anderson hasn’t been nearly as dominant, but he’s allowed no more than two earned runs in any of his four starts in 2020. With two struggling lineups and Bauer starting this should be quite the easy Under. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE

While Orlando did pull the upset in Game One, things have quickly (and predictably) swung in Milwaukee’s favor in this series. Now the top-seeded Bucks can take a commanding 3-1 series advantage and there’s really no doubt in our minds that will happen. They are of course big favorites to beat the Magic in Game Four Monday afternoon and why wouldn’t they be? The last two games have seen them hold halftime advantages of 21 and 27 points. The Bucks shot 56.1% in Game Three, an uber-efficient performance where Giannis Antetokounmpo scored 35 pts on 12 of 14 shooting. The Magic are short-handed and have covered only 4 of their last 17 games vs. teams with a winning record. The Bucks are 6-2 ATS when leading in a playoff series and while this is a lot of points to lay, they are just that much better than their opponents here. This series likely ends in five games and Milwaukee will win big today. Play on MILWAUKEE

AAA

This is an 8* on VEGAS

Vegas earned the top spot in the Western Conference by sweeping through their three round robin games. Then they got here to the conference semifinals by easily dispatching the 12th seeded Chicago Blackhawks in five games. The opponent is the Vancouver Canucks, who eliminated Minnesota in four games in the qualification round then defending Stanley Cup Champion St. Louis in six games in the last round. Both Pacific Division teams are hot entering this series. Vegas is 7-1 SU in the bubble while Vancouver has won 7 of its last 9. But we’ve got to side with the Golden Knights in Game 1 as they’ve played tremendous hockey since the restart. They are dominating possession while averaging 3.7 goals/game. The Canucks are averaging 3.4 goals/game, but on far less shot attempts and it’s going to be difficult to maintain that shot percentage. Vancouver’s possession numbers aren’t as good as they’re being outshot by about 7.0 per game. The Canucks are just 2-8 SU in their 10 games vs. Vegas, both wins coming after regulation.. They are a young team that hasn’t been in the conference semis since 2011. Play on VEGAS

This is a 10* on DENVER

The Nuggets have quickly gone from favorites to underdogs in this series as they’ve lost the last two games by a combined 56 points. If that sounds bad, well it is. But it's not over yet for Denver as they did win Game 1 (in overtime) and a win here would even the series back up. You have to think the Nuggets are going to shoot better than they did in Game 3. They made just 37.5% of their total attempts including only 12 of 38 three-pointers. The big story was the return of Mike Conley for Utah as he made seven threes on his way to a 27-point game. The Jazz have been somewhat inconsistent on offense during their time in the bubble as they definitely miss 2nd leading scorer Bogdanovic. Now it's Denver hoping for a return (Gary Harris) on Sunday as they look to move to 4-0 ATS the last four times they have been trailing in a playoff series. Utah is just 4-15-2 ATS the last 21 times it has been a favorite and they’re just 2-6 ATS coming off an ATS win. Play on DENVER

AAA

This is an 8* on MILWAUKEE

Milwaukee has yet to find success in this series, which is somewhat shocking when you consider who the opponent is. Pittsburgh came in with the worst record in MLB, but has now won two straight for the 1st time all season. Still, even with two convincing victories (7-2 and 12-5), the Pirates have the National League’s worst run differential at -32. This afternoon they’ll send Brubaker to the hill and he’s yet to go longer than three innings in two starts. He allowed three runs in both so it’s a 9.00 ERA for him. Milwaukee’s Burnes has a 2.16 ERA in his two starts, both of which have seen him allow just 1 ER. Yesterday was the most runs scored by the Pirates in a win all season. Burnes is 2-0 with a 2.87 ERA in 12 career appearances vs Pittsburgh, all in relief.  We see Pittsburgh resorting back to their previous ways and Milwaukee avoiding the sweep. Christan Yelich has to break out of his 1 for 22 slump, right? Play on MILWAUKEE

AAA

analysis soon

This is a 10* on PORTLAND

After upsetting the Lakers in Game 1, Portland got run out of the gym in Game 2. They were down 30 after three quarters and lost 111-88 in what was easily their worst showing in the NBA bubble. Previous to that, the Blazers had lost only twice and those two losses were by a total of nine points. After scoring at least 124 in all but one seeding game, they’ve been held to an average of 94 points/game by the Lakers. We like them to bounce back in Game 3 and at the very least keep it close. Game 2 aside, the Lakers have not played all that well in the bubble as they are just 2-8 against the spread with six outright defeats. Offensive efficiency is way down, especially when LeBron James is off the court. They have just two wins by more than three points since the restart and have failed to hit 100 four different times. A second straight blowout seems unlikely, so grab the points. Play on PORTLAND

AAA

This is a 8* on CLEVELAND

Cleveland fell prey to one big inning last night as Detroit scored 7 runs in the top of the 4th. Really, it was one pitch that did them in, that being a grand slam hit by Tigers rookie Isaac Paredas. That erased what had been a 5-0 Indians lead and the 10-5 final score marked the first time the Tribe has lost this year when scoring at least three runs. They were 13-0 when scoring 3 or more previous to that! The loss also ended their 20-game win streak over the Tigers. Expect Cleveland to bounce back though as Saturday finds them sending out highly touted prospect Triston McKenzie, who will be making his big league debut. McKenzie is the latest addition to a staff that is allowing a MLB-low 2.9 runs/game and a .210 opponents’ batting average. No matter how he performs, it’s likely to be better than Detroit’s Matthew Boyd, who has an unsightly 9.64 ERA and 1.89 WHIP in five starts. Boyd has allowed seven home runs his past three starts and has yet to go more than five innings in any start this season. Classic bounce back for Cleveland. Play on CLEVELAND

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

Neither team has shot all that well in the first two games. That has to be somewhat terrifying for the Thunder as they’re down 0-2 in this series and facing an uphill climb. We’ve had the Rockets in both games with Game 1 being our top NBA release for the month. That one saw them breeze coast to coast to a 123-108 win. Things were a bit closer in Game 2 as they only won 111-98 and it was a lot closer for much of the 4th Quarter. The Rockets only shot 41.8% and James Harden had only 21 points. We expect more offense out of Houston today. Same with Oklahoma CIty, who had only 39 points after halftime in Game 2. The Over is 9-3-1 their last 13 games after a loss. Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on MILWAUKEE

It was all set up to be a great weekend for Milwaukee as they were facing the team with the worst record in the league. But they lost 7-2 to the Pirates Friday night, a result which should not sit well with the Brewers. Fortunately for them, they are 8-4 off a loss this year while Pittsburgh is 0-4 off a win. The Pirates have been hammered in those four games too; giving up a total of 34 runs to the opposition. Be prepared to see them give up a lot more this evening as Derek Holland and his 8.26 ERA takes the mound. Holland gave up five home runs in his last start and the Pirates lost 11-5 to Detroit. Holland did face off with the Brewers in his first start of 2020 and while that ended up being an 8-6 Pittsburgh win (as +170 underdogs), he did not factor into the decision. Milwaukee will counter with Lindblom, who started opposite Holland in that 8-6 game last month. But since then, Lindblom has struck out a career-high eight batters in back to back starts. The Brewers are 8-2 their L10 games at PNC Park. A Pirates team that has scored just 85 runs in 22 games can’t be trusted to win two in a row. Play on MILWAUKEE

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This is a 7* on CLEVELAND

The Indians have taken advantage of a soft schedule (Detroit and Pittsburgh) to win six in a row. They’ve swept the last two series and are now an amazing 12-0 this season in games where they score at least three runs. Yesterday, they needed only two runs in a shutout win over Pittsburgh. That was their MLB-leading 5th shutout of 2020 and no team has allowed fewer runs this season (just 66 in 25 games). Not only did Cleveland sweep last weekend’s series with Detroit, they’ve beaten them 20 consecutive times! So facing them a second straight weekend has to have them overjoyed, especially seeing as Detroit has now lost nine in a row overall and was shut out yesterday in Chicago. The Indians had their best offensive series of the year against the Tigers last weekend by scoring 21 runs in three games. Tigers starter Fulmer has a 7.55 ERA and 2.04 WHIP in his three starts and lasted less than three innings when he faced Cleveland last week. The Tribe goes with Adam Plutko, who hasn’t been their strongest starter, but he’s never lost to Detroit (4-0) in nine appearances, six of them starts. The most recent was against Fulmer last week. All signs point to a Cleveland blowout tonight. Play on CLEVELAND

AAA

This is a 10* on WASH -1.5

Despite enduring a COVID-19 outbreak just as the season was getting underway, Miami ended up winning 7 of its first 8 games. They’ve since gone 2-8 with yesterday’s game against the Mets being postponed due to two positive (COVID) tests in the Mets organization. Thus it marked the first time in six days where the Marlins DIDN’T lose (lost 5 in a row overall). Today they’re in Washington D.C. and the losing should continue as they face a Nationals team that has their number. The Nats went 15-4 vs. Miami last year and were 13-4 against them the season before that. Washington also had Thursday off, but unlike the Marlins, it was a scheduled off-day. They’ve actually been off for two days as Wednesday’s game vs. Atlanta was rained out. We look for the Nationals to come out strong and take this series opener rather easily. Pat Corbin gets the start and he was 3-0 vs. Miami last season with a 1.55 ERA in four starts. He limited them to a .165 batting average while striking out 29 and walking just five. As of now, Miami is scheduled to go with Eliser Hernandez. But they could change to rookie Daniel Castano. Either way, the Nationals win. Play on WASHINGTON

AAA

This is 10* on OVER

People seem willing to keep trying to bet on the Nuggets’ Over streak ending. But as long as the number is this low, it won’t be happening anytime soon. In case you were unaware, Denver has gone Over in all 10 of its games inside the bubble. Most of those have gone Over by a lot. The fewest number of total points scored in a Nuggets game since the restart is 226. They have averaged 242.3 points/game. That’s with some overtime mixed in, but still there was only one game that would have stayed Under in regulation. Game 2 vs. the Jazz was a 124-105 loss. The Nuggets have now allowed at least 124 points in every game but two. Utah happens to be averaging 124.5 points/game in Orlando while at the same time giving up 120 points/game. The Jazz have shot nearly 50% overall in the two games of this series so far while the Nuggets have made more than half their three-pointers. There is no reason to believe this amount of scoring won’t continue. Denver is 10-3 Over this season off a double digit loss. Utah is 6-1 Over if they won their last game straight up as an underdog. Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on OAKLAND

After losing both games in Arizona, the A’s bounced back last night with a 4-1 win here in Oakland. The A’s had won four in a row coming into this series with the Diamondbacks and have really played as well as anybody in 2020. At 17-8, they’ve got the best record in the American League. While Arizona saw a six-game win streak end yesterday, the truth of the matter is they hadn’t been playing all that well before that streak. Three of those six wins were by one run. Take away that six game win streak and Arizona is only 7-12 this year while getting outscored by 29 runs. Manaea is winless in five starts for Oakland but should get that elusive first victory tonight. Ten of the A’s 17 wins this year have come at home. Arizona has just five road wins and is 1-5 vs. lefty starting pitchers. Young is starting for only the second time and the only reason he’s in the rotation is because Madison Bumgarner is injured. Play on OAKLAND

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This is a 10* on PORTLAND

Portland shocked a lot of people by beating the Lakers 100-93 in Game 1, but not us. This team came into the bubble needing to win almost every game and that’s exactly what they have done. They’ve gone 8-2 in their 10 games with the only two losses coming by a combined nine points. That the Blazers were able to win Game 1 despite a poor offensive night has to scare the Lakers. Portland shot just 39.2% Tuesday night, a far cry from the multiple 124+ point efforts we’ve seen from them in Orlando. As for the Lakers, they are 1-8 ATS in the bubble and struggling to make shots. They haven’t even hit 100 four different times. Their shooting percentage and offensive efficiency, particularly when LeBron James is off the court, has been woeful. We just don’t see how LA is going to win by more than what the oddsmakers are calling for here, if they even win at all tonight. Besides James and Anthony Davis, the rest of the Lakers combined for just 42 points on 32.1% shooting in Game 1. Since the restart, the top seed has ONE win by more than three points. Play on PORTLAND

AAA

This is a 10* on SAN DIEGO

Texas has been no match for San Diego in this series with the Padres taking all three games so far. The first two were playing in Arlington and made headlines when Fernando Tatis swung on a 3-0 count and hit a grand slam (upset people for some reason). It took an extra inning last night but the Padres still ended up winning 6-3 and now they get to go for the sweep with what looks to be a huge pitching edge. Lamet has a 1.59 ERA/0.81 WHIP through five starts and has looked great. He’s allowed only six runs in 28+ innings, which means trouble for a Texas club that comes in hitting just .214 on the year. The Rangers are giving up lots of runs too, 6.0/game on the road, thanks largely to a bullpen whose ERA is now 8.26 away from home. Starter Kyle Gibson has a 1.48 WHIP and the team is 1-3 in his four starts. With last night’s game decided on a walkoff grand slam, we can’t imagine Texas has much left in the tank. Play on SAN DIEGO

AAA

This is a 10* on WASHINGTON 

Back on Tuesday, we projected that the Capitals would stay alive and they did, beating the Islanders 3-2 in Game 4 of this best of seven series. They won despite falling behind 2-0 early. Obviously, down 3-1 in the series, there’s a lot more work to be done. But we again believe this talented team will live to fight another day. This series has seen Washington get outshot by a fairly decent margin. While that’s not something you want to see, they did just score three goals for the first time since the restart and Alex Ovechkin had two of them.That’s enough to convince us that the Caps aren’t going to simply roll over here. Ovechkin and TJ Oshie are the only Caps to have scored in this series, but Backstrom seems ready to return. Washington was the favorite in this series for a reason. The Islanders are just 3-11 their last 14 games as an underdog. Play on WASHINGTON

AAA

This is an 8* on HOUSTON

Houston was our Game of the Month on Tuesday and they came through with flying colors, clobbering Oklahoma City by a score of 123-108 and it wasn’t even that close as the Rockets led by 21 going into the fourth. This despite not having the services of Russell Westbrook, but we projected James Harden to have a big game and that’s exactly what happened as “The Beard” delivered a 37-point effort. He’s certainly capable of scoring even more than that and we think he will in Game 2. Even without Westbrook, Houston is the better team here. The Thunder overachieved both before and after the restart, but this could be a quick series if they’re not careful. You’ll notice that OKC is now the underdog after opening as the slightest favorite for Game 1. While priced more appropriately, we still don’t like the Thunder’s chances in this one as Gallinari had a career-high 29 points in Game 1 and that didn’t matter. His chances of matching that number this afternoon are slim at best. The Rockets are simply the better team. Play on HOUSTON

AAA

This is an 8* on HOUSTON

Houston was able to squeak out another one on Tuesday, this time defeating the Colorado Rockies 2-1 in 11 innings. That was the Astros sixth straight win and they’ve allowed two runs or less in every game! In fact, they’ve allowed just seven runs total during the win streak. The last four wins have all been by one run margins, meaning they’re not scoring very many runs either, but that should change Wednesday as they pay a visit to Coors Field. Having beaten the Rockies each of the last two days (in Houston), the ‘Stros have plenty of confidence coming into this one. They should, plus there’s Framber Valdez starting. Valdez has a 2.08 ERA and is coming off two straight quality starts. The Rockies have lost five of six and their bullpen has been horrendous at home, posting a 7.23 ERA as well as a 1.70 WHIP. Their starting pitcher for this game will be Castellani, who’s made two decent starts thus far but against weaker lineups than the one he’ll see tonight. The Astros are 10-3 their last 13 games where the total is set at 11.0 or higher. Play on HOUSTON

AAA

This is a 7* on CLEVELAND

Cleveland needed an extra inning to outlast Pittsburgh last night, 6-3. They led 3-1 going into the bottom of the fifth, which is when the Pirates were able to tie the game up. But a three-run HR from Carlos Santana effectively ended things in the top of the 10th as the Indians moved to a perfect 11-0 this season when scoring three runs or more. Pittsburgh has only four wins all year as they’ve got the worst record in baseball. Furthermore, they’ve allowed almost double the number of runs Cleveland has. No club has given up fewer runs than the Indians’ 65 this year and the story shouldn’t change Wednesday when they send Civale to the hill. He’s gone at least six innings in all four of his starts. Don’t be fooled by the 0.00 ERA from Pittsburgh’s starter Brault. He’s pitched a total of only seven innings all year. The Indians have gone 6-1 as road favorites of -125 to -175 and are clearly rolling now with 9 wins in the last 12 games overall. Play on CLEVELAND

AAA

This is a 10* on PHILADELPHIA

Philadelphia lost Game 1 109-101 and failed to cover as 6.5-point underdogs. All told, it wasn’t that disappointing a performance as the Sixers led going into the 4th quarter. That is when they went cold. The good news is they held Boston to just 42% shooting and it took every bit of Jayson Tatum’s career playoff highs of 32 points and 13 rebounds to get the Celtics the ‘W.’ While the 76ers are without Ben Simmons, they still should compete in this series and we like them plus the points in Game 2. Late in Game 1, Gordon Hayward suffered a severe ankle sprain, meaning Boston will be without him for likely four weeks. That’s a big loss. The Celtics are not a deep team. Including Hayward, they have just six players that rate better than average in terms of RPM.  They are just 1-4 ATS off the last five ATS wins and we’re going “zig zag” here. Play on PHILADELPHIA

AAA

This is a 10* on BOSTON

Boston stormed back to take Game 4 by a count of 4-3 on Monday and now leads Carolina 3-1 in this best of seven series. They go for the “kill” on Wednesday and given how the last game played out, the series is ripe for the taking. The Hurricanes led 2-0 with just under 12 minutes to go. The Bruins then scored four times in the next seven minutes to completely change the direction of the series. Boston finished the game with a 33-19 edge in shots, so they deserved to win. They have just crushed Carolina when it comes to shots in the series, holding a +44 edge. They have outshot them by at least 9 in all four games. In addition, the Bruins have taken 13 of the past 15 matchups head to head. With Tuukka Rask gone, there was concern over whether or not there’d be a drop off in the crease for Boston. There hasn’t been as Jaroslav Halak’s numbers have been every bit as good as Rask’s. It can’t be stressed enough that Boston had the most points in the league when the season was stopped in March. They are 40-16 L56 off a win. Play on BOSTON

AAA

This is an 8* on TAMPA BAY

We’ve taken Tampa Bay in each of the last two games and they’ve delivered. Now they have a shot to eliminate Columbus for good and finally erase the painful memory of what happened in the first round of last year’s playoffs. That history-making sweep is the furthest thing from the Blue Jackets’ minds right now as they are just thinking one win at a time. Problem is, they are gassed. This was discussed in our Game 4 analysis. To rehash, Columbus had to play a tough five-game series against Toronto in the qualification round and a 5OT loss in Game 1 of this series was exactly what they DIDN’T need. Now had the Lightning lost that game, this would be a much different series. Columbus did outshoot Tampa Bay for the first time in the series in Game 4 (29-22) but were pretty much doomed once they fell into a two-goal hole. The Blue Jackets have been outshot in all but three games in the bubble and you have to think Tampa feels pretty good about itself being that they’re 5-2 and have yet to score more than three goals in any game here in Toronto. Of course, neither has Columbus. The problem for the Blue Jackets is that the Lightning are 47-9 their L56 after scoring two goals or less the last game. Play on TAMPA BAY

AAA

This is an 8* on MINNESOTA

Minnesota is another American League team off to a good start as they are 15-8 and tied with the Yankees for the best run differential at +38. They come into this series having won each of the last three days, same as Milwaukee, but the Brewers are just 10-10 on the year. While Milwaukee should feel good about itself having just beaten the Cubs three straight times, every win was by one run. They’ve still been outscored by 12 runs this season. Don’t see them solving Kenta Maeda who is 3-0 with a 2.66 ERA and 0.72 WHIP in four starts. Maeda has gone at least six inning in each of his last three starts and allowed a combined five runs. Burnes made it to only the fourth inning in his only start for Milwaukee (went 3 ⅓). Maeda has a 2.94 ERA in six career starts vs. the Brewers. The Twins have scored 32 more runs than the Brewers. Play on MINNESOTA

AAA

This is a 10* on WASHINGTON

This is it for the Caps, who are down 0-3 in this best of seven series. We did not see them being in this position. Few did. Washington was leading the Metropolitan Division back in March. Upon restarting, they lost two of three games in the round robin. But they still were the 3-seed and facing an Islanders team that had not really been tested in its qualification series vs. Florida. However, it’s the Isles that have looked the part of the better team here. They’ve outshot Washington 75-53 in 5v5 play, allowing just two goals. Still, it would be quite foolish to write off the Capitals at this point. We already saw one (Chicago) facing elimination and a 3-0 series deficit stay alive by winning Game 4. After six straight games of two goals or less, you have to think the Capitals are due for a break out game offensively. This is a team whose season long average is still 3.3 goals/game, one of the best in the league. They’ve gone from a -135 money line favorite in Game 1 to a slight underdog here in Game 4. We’ll grab the value. Play on WASHINGTON

AAA

This is a 10* on HOUSTON

Houston will be without Russell Westbrook for an indefinite period of time, but let’s not forget that Harden fellow and what he’s capable of doing. The Rockets did lose their last three games, but really had nothing to play for and that should be taken into account. Before that, they’d started the bubble 4-1 straight up and against the spread. Oklahoma City went 4-4 in its eight games as well, albeit in much different fashion. They alternated wins and losses the entire way, meaning not one time did they win OR lose back to back games. They are hoping that pattern continues as it would mean a win here. But we feel differently as the Rockets are being undervalued because of the Westbrook absence. Certainly that matters, but Harden has averaged 35.3 points, 9.2 rebounds and 8.7 assists in the bubble with a 53.2 FG%. Two other Rockets have had 40+ point games this year, one of the Austin Rivers’ whose career-high 41 point effort came in the bubble. Houston has enough to get the job done and Oklahoma City hasn’t really had all of its pieces together here in Orlando with Schroeder missing time and Adams hurt. Chris Paul has a hand injury worth monitoring as well. Play on HOUSTON

AAA

This is an 8* on OAKLAND

Oakland is doing quite well for itself as they’ve started 16-7. They’d won five in a row before yesterday’s 4-3 loss to Arizona, which was the Diamondbacks’ fifth straight win themselves. But the difference is Arizona is only 12-11 and has a -15 run differential on the season. The starting pitching matchup for Tuesday heavily tilts in the A’s favor as Montas has a 3-1 TSR with a 1.57 ERA and 1.00 WHIP while Weaver has a 11.86 ERA, 2.123 WHIP and is winless in his four starts. Going back to last season, Oakland is 11-2 in Montas’ last 13 starts. Weaver has yet to go more than four innings in any start in 2020 and has already allowed 7 home runs. Note Oakland has scored 38 runs its previous four games before losing in the 9th last night. Play on OAKLAND

AAA

This is an 8* on OVER

The Angels definitely can’t be trusted to get the job done, even in this price range, but we can expect a high-scoring game against the Giants Tuesday afternoon. LA’s last five games have all gone Over with 11 or more total runs scored every time. Thus far, when they’re at home, Angels’ games have averaged 12.3 runs/game. The Giants come in having allowed 7.7 runs/game over their last seven contests, a stretch in which the Over is 6-1. They are allowing 6.3 runs/game for the season. While the Angels do have their best pitcher - Dylan Bundy - going tonight, they and the Giants both have terrible bullpens. In just the last five games, the Giants’ pen has gone 0-4 with a 12.19 ERA and has given up 29 runs in 20 ⅓ innings. Angels’ relievers aren’t much better with a near identical home ERA/WHIP to what the Giants have on the road. Trevor Cahill starts today for SF. This is his 1st start of the year after a fingernail issue. Expect him to struggle. Play on OVER

This is a 10* on HOUSTON

Houston has started to turn things around, thanks to a visit from Seattle over the weekend. They outscored the Mariners 16-4 in the series, a margin that’s a little skewed due to one of the wins (first game) being 11-1. Still that sweep had to feel good as the Astros are back in second place in the AL West. They get a visit from the Colorado Rockies Monday and while run suppression won’t be as easy here as it was against the Mariners, we still look for Houston to prevail. These teams played four times in 2019 with Houston winning all four. The Rockies have been a bit of a surprise so far and we did have them yesterday as they put up 10 runs in a win over Texas. It’ll probably take a lot of runs for the Astros to prevail tonight, but we think they’re up to the task. Rockies starter Kyle Freeland does have a 4-0 team start record, but he allowed a pair of home runs in his last one. For the Astros, Bielak has a 1.80 ERA in two starts, both of which came versus NL West teams! Traditionally, the Rockies are not a very good road team. Play on HOUSTON

This is a 10* on OVER

Houston has started to turn things around, thanks to a visit from Seattle over the weekend. They outscored the Mariners 16-4 in the series, a margin that’s a little skewed due to one of the wins (first game) being 11-1. Still that sweep had to feel good as the Astros are back in second place in the AL West. They get a visit from the Colorado Rockies Monday and while run suppression won’t be as easy here as it was against the Mariners, we still look for Houston to prevail. These teams played four times in 2019 with Houston winning all four. The Rockies have been a bit of a surprise so far and we did have them yesterday as they put up 10 runs in a win over Texas. It’ll probably take a lot of runs for the Astros to prevail tonight, but we think they’re up to the task. Rockies starter Kyle Freeland does have a 4-0 team start record, but he allowed a pair of home runs in his last one. Both teams are averaging more than 5.0 runs per game. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on DALLAS

Dallas is just 3-5 since the restart while the Clippers have gone 5-3. It’s a tough break that a team as talented as the Mavericks fell to the 7-seed and drew a first round matchup with Los Angeles. But it is also a bit of a “tough draw” for the Clippers. The Mavs are one of the top offensive teams in the league and pose a threat that other potential first round opponents (like Utah or Oklahoma City) would not have. These teams met on August 6th and while LA won 126-111, it was a tie game with just over six minutes remaining. That’s with the Clippers shooting exceptionally well and the Mavs having an “off game” at the offensive end. Luka Doncic is averaging a triple double in the bubble with 32 points/game. The Mavericks have averaged 125 points/game since returning and that makes them a “tough out” as an underdog. The spread was only 3.5 when these teams met 11 days ago. Nothing has really changed significantly for either side since then, so the dog screams VALUE. Play on DALLAS

AAA

This is an 8* on TAMPA BAY 

Tampa Bay got a much needed win in Game 3. They had our endorsement and never trailed en route to their second 3-2 victory of the series. They outshot the Blue Jackets 2:1 (34-17) and concerning for Columbus is whether or not the team may have “run out of gas.” Coach John Tortorella seemed to think so based on his post-game comments. Remember that the Blue Jackets have already gone through a five-game qualification series as well as the 5OT marathon in Game 1. Up 2-1 in the series, the Lightning have confidence against the team that pulled off that shocking sweep in last year’s playoffs. They have outshot Columbus in every game so far. To that point, the Blue Jackets have been outshot in six of their eight games since the restart. They had only eight shots on goal over the last 50 minutes of Game 3. While they had Sunday off, that’s probably not enough to recharge. Undervalued because of what happened in last year’s playoffs, the Lightning win again and take a commanding 3-1 series lead. Play on TAMPA BAY

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

The Blues have still not won a game since the restart. This is a far cry from last season’s run to the Stanley Cup when they caught fire in January and never looked back. When the season stopped, they did have the most points in the Western Conference. But by losing all three round robin games, they fell to the 4-seed for the playoffs. They’re now in an 0-2 hole to upstart Vancouver and tonight is about as “must win” as you can get from the St. Louis side of things. But not sure we can trust them in this spot given the lack of life we’ve seen so far. The Blues are averaging just 2.2 goals on 27.8 shots per game. Vancouver is averaging a similar number of shots per game (actually less, 27.2) but has somehow parlayed that into 3.5 goals per game. We don’t see St. Louis turning things around tonight (not at the offensive end at least) while Vancouver can keep up its current scoring clip. Blues are 6-1 Under on Sundays this season. Play on UNDER

AAA

THis is a 10* on LAD

The Dodgers are clearly too much for the Angels and can finish off the sweep this afternoon. Last night’s game went 10 innings after the Dodgers tied it late. This one should go smoother behind Dustin May, who has twice gone off as a favorite of -200 or more, so this is a good price on him. The Dodgers, as was to be expected, have been very dominant this season. They’ve scored 55 more runs than they have allowed. No other team has a run diff of better than +33 and only two (Yankees, Twins) are better than +20. While the Dodgers have won four in a row, the Angels have lost three straight. Teheran is not well-suited to start in this spot, not just because of the 13.49 ERA and 2.36 WHIP, but also due to the fact he has never beaten the Dodgers in eight tries and has a 5.35 ERA against them. This is a very one-sided matchup as the Dodgers are already 7-2 as road favorites of -125 to -175. Play on LA DODGERS

This is an 8* on COLORADO

So Texas pitching has had virtually zero problems adjusting to Coors Field this weekend. Friday saw starter Lance Lynn throw a complete game and it was just the eighth time in the history of this park that a team was held to two hits or fewer over a full nine-inning game. The Rockies did a bit better at the plate on Saturday, but still ended up wasting an early 2-0 lead and lost 6-4. The Rangers have won a season-high four straight, which is a bit perplexing to us as this has not been a good road team the last few seasons and they’re still -2.0 rpg outside of Arlington this year. The Rockies are 12-8 and have outscored teams by 19 runs this year while Texas is 10-9 but has been outscored by 11 runs. Look for the home team to avoid the sweep Sunday behind Jon Gray. Gray was hit hard his last time out, but should bounce back here as the Rangers are only hitting .217 for the year. He is 4-0 with a 1.85 ERA (39.0 IP, 8 ER) in six career interleague starts at Coors Field, limiting American League batters to a .159 average. Allard has looked pretty good for Texas but has never pitched at Coors before. Play on COLORADO

AAA

8* ON OVER 2.5 ROUNDS

This is the rubber match for the UFC Heavyweight Championship of the World. Both have a TKO victory over the other. Miocic had the more recent of the two, thus he opened as the slight favorite here, though those odds have flipped as of press time. That fight took place almost one year ago to the day with Miocic regaining the very title he lost to Cormier back in July of ‘18 at UFC 226. Those are Stipe’s only two fights of the previous two years. Cormier has said he’s retiring, win or lose, after this fight although that’s something we’ve heard from him before. The first fight between the two saw Cormier end things in Round 1. The rematch went to the 4th round. Before losing the title back to Miocic, Cormier did have a successful title defense in November of 2018 against Derrick Lewis, which he won via rear-naked choke in Round 2. What’s amazing about the first two fights is neither has been able to execute more than one successful takedown. That being said, all we need here is the fight to make it past the halfway mark of Round 2 and we think that’s going to happen. Two of Miocic’s last three fights made it to the “Championship Rounds.” Meanwhile, five of Cormier’s last eight have gotten to the point that would be a winning ticket here. 8* on OVER 2.5 ROUNDS

AAA

This is a 10* on ROZENSTRUIK

This isn’t the heavyweight battle everyone’s coming to see Saturday at UFC 252 (that would be the title fight of Miocic vs. Cormier), but it’s our favorite call of the year inside the Octagon. Rozenstruik enjoyed a breakout 2019 campaign by finishing Junior Albini, Allen Crowder, Andrei Arlovski & Alistair Overeem, all by KO, two of which came in Round 1. The Overeem knockout came with just four seconds left in a fight Rozenstruik may have otherwise lost. Unfortunately, “lady luck” then caught up with him in a 20 second KO defeat to Francis Ngannou back in May. Still, Rozenstruik has proven all he needs is “one punch” and we believe one punch is all he’ll need to dispatch former champ Junior Dos Santos. Dos Santos has found a way to remain relevant within the division but is coming off back to back losses to top contenders. One of them was a Rd 1 KO at the hands of Ngannou. Prior to experiencing that same fate (see above) Rozenstruik was a perfect 10-0 in his career, all but one win coming via knockout. Dos Santos is just 6-6 his L12 fights and his best days are clearly behind him. Even worse is that he’s been TKO’d in the last five losses. This is Rozenstruik’s coming out party and another KO finish is what we’re expecting here. 10* on ROZENSTRUIK

AAA

This is a 10* on TAMPA BAY

Tampa Bay thought it finally had gained the upper hand against arch-nemesis Columbus after a FIVE overtime victory in Game 1. Technically, the had. The win put the Lightning up 1-0 in the series. But then they lost Game 2 by a score of 3-1. The Blue Jackets really neutralized the Lightning’s offense in that one, giving up just the one goal in the first period. Obviously, in the back of Tampa Bay’s head is what happened last year - a shocking first round sweep at the hands of Columbus. Because they won Game 1, it can’t be a repeat, but the goal here is not to get eliminated by the same team two years in a row. The Lightning shouldn’t hang their heads too much though; they outshot the Blue Jackets in Game 2, 37-22. Game 1 it was an 88-63 edge in that regard (remember, 5 OT’s). Since the restart, the pattern for Columbus has been win one, lose one (they have yet to win or lose consecutive games. Tampa Bay also hasn’t lost two in a row. Play on TAMPA BAY

This is an 8* on WASHINGTON

The Nationals wrapped up a busy Friday with a 15-3 win over the Orioles. Just prior to that, these two teams had to complete a suspended game from Sunday. Baltimore won that 6-2 as they were ahead 5-2 in the sixth when play was halted. Despite winning the second game in such convincing fashion, it was a pretty “bad” day for Washington. They lost Stephen Strasburg after just 16 pitches due to a nerve issue. Second baseman Starlin Castro broke his wrist. Despite these injuries, we still like the Nats to roll again here on Sunday. Baltimore has definitely overachieved to this point. No one expected this 11-8 start which included six straight wins before the 15-3 loss yesterday. This has been the worst team in baseball the last two years. Nationals starter Pat Corbin has been sharp in three outings so are (2.50 ERA, 1.00 WHIP) while the Orioles send Wojciechowski out and he’s got a 5.40 ERA. Washington now averages over 7.0 runs/game on the road. Baltimore is averaging less than four per game at home. Play on WASHINGTON

AAA

This is a 10* on the OVER

If Portland wins Saturday, then they move on and face the Lakers in the 1st round. If Memphis wins, then there’s another game tomorrow and the Grizzlies have to win that one too (to earn their shot at the Lakers). Memphis should (theoretically) be the more motivated side Saturday, but they are short-handed (no Jaren Jackson) and quite frankly haven’t played very well in the bubble (2-6 straight up and against the spread). The Trail Blazers have gone 6-2 SU and 5-2-1 ATS and that’s how they passed Memphis for the 8th seed. We’re passing on the side in this one, but like the total as we figure there continues to be plenty of scoring as long as Damian Lillard and the Blazers are involved. Portland’s last five games have AVERAGED more than 250 total points. Lillard has scored more than 150 himself in the last three, which is obviously insane. The team is also very bad defensively as it has allowed more than 130 points in back to back games. These teams played to a 140-135 final (won by Portland) in the first game after the restart. While there was overtime, it was still 124-124 at the end of regulation. Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on the OVER

Washington can’t like the way this series started. A 4-2 loss to the Islanders in Game 1 saw them give up all four goals in the span of 13 minutes as their own early 2-0 lead quickly went away. The loss was also the third in four games for the Capitals since the restart. Their only win was the final round robin game (vs. Boston) which kept them out of the 4-seed. New York is 4-1 and getting some surprising scoring punch with four or more goals scored in three of the past four games. The Isles didn’t have much trouble with the overmatched Panthers in the qualification round. Here, as falling into the early two-goal deficit should tell you, they will face more firepower. Washington’s offense has really yet to get going here in Toronto, but we feel it's only a matter of time. They average 3.4 goals per game for the year. The Over is 5-2 the last seven times these division foes have met. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 7* on CINCINNATI

Going by units lost, the Reds (-7.1) have been one of the most disappointing teams in baseball so far. With playoff expansion (8 teams per league) this season, many thought this would be Cincinnati’s year to return to the postseason. Right now they’re just 8-11 and just took an embarrassing 9-6 loss to Pittsburgh at home yesterday. They did try and make a game of it late, scoring runs in the 7th, 8th and 9th innings, but falling into an early 9-0 hole was simply too much to overcome. Fortunately for the cause, Pittsburgh is not a team you’d expect to win two in a row. In fact, that hasn’t happened yet as the Pirates record is a league-worst 4-13. Sonny Gray has three of the Reds eight wins this year and he’ll be on the mound Friday, looking to improve his already stellar numbers (2.25 ERA, 0.92 WHIP). Over his first three starts, Gray allowed just 2 runs in 28 innings. Chad Kuhl will start for the Pirates. He’s worked as a reliever as well. He was okay in the first start, giving up just one run. But he made it through only 4 innings and the Pirates lost that game 17-13. That was also the last time the Bucs were off a win. Play on CINCINNATI

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

There’s really nothing to play for here unless you consider Oklahoma City’s official seeding for the playoffs. That really doesn’t matter though as they’re going to play Houston in the 1st round and with home court advantage not a factor, being the 4 or 5 seed is of no real importance. The Clippers are the 2-seed in the West and locked into a first round matchup with the Mavericks. They are 4-3 in the bubble after a 124-111 win over Denver Wednesday night secured them the 2-seed. The Thunder are also 4-3 and off a win as their reserves rallied from a 22-point deficit to beat Miami two days ago. All stars are going to sit this finale out. Interesting that the Clippers past five games have all gone Over, averaging 238.4 points/game. This is a much different kind of game though with nothing on the line and starters not playing. The Clippers have also faced some of the worst defensive teams here in the bubble. Oklahoma City is generally pretty good defensively. At the same time, it has shot just 42.1% the L5 games. Under is 44-19-1 the L64 games the Thunder have been underdogs. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is an 8* on ST. LOUIS

St. Louis, who won the Stanley Cup last June and had the most points in the Western Conference at the time of the stoppage, has not won a game since March. They are 0-3-1 since the restart and this series with Vancouver got off to an auspicious start Wednesday. They were beaten 5-2. It was the Canucks 4th straight win and they’ve scored 17 goals. Certainly, it feels as if the Canucks have the momentum right now. But it would obviously be foolish to write off the Blues. The third period has been the problem thus far. The Cup Champs have been outscored 9-0 in the final 20 minutes of the previous four games. They have a +2 goal differential in the first two periods. In the round robin, they lost in the final second of regulation and another game in a shootout. The other saw them jump out to an early 2-0. In Game 1 vs. Vancouver, they had a 31-22 edge in shots on goal. Look for the Blues to reverse their late game woes in Game 2 and tie this series up. Play on ST LOUIS

AAA

This is an 8* on the OVER

Game 1 went to overtime. While Philadelphia won 2-1, it was also a win for us as we had Montreal +1.5. The win not only put the Flyers up in this series but also kept them perfect since the restart. They’re 4-0 and have allowed one goal in every game. Montreal, a 12-seed that should feel fortunate to even be here, did eliminate a talented Pittsburgh team (that was at full strength) in just four games in the qualification round. Philly has been the hottest team in the league since January 8th and has won 13 of its last 14 games. We are looking for Game 2 to go Over the total. The teams came into this series having gone a combined 0 for 23 on the power play, since the restart. Both scored a goal with the man advantage in Game 1, a good sign. Yes, the Canadiens have Carey Price. But is his .945 save percentage in the bubble sustainable? Probably not! Flyers goalie Carter Hart has a .966 save percentage here in Toronto. That’s definitely not sustainable! The Over is 4-1 for Philly following the last five times they were held to two goals or less. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on LOS ANGELES

The Dodgers need more innings like the 8th of last night’s game. They scored four times in that frame, putting the finishing touches on a much-needed 6-0 win over the divisional rival Padres. Los Angeles had lost to San Diego each of the previous two days, scoring just three runs total in the process. But despite this mini “slump,” Dodger Blue continues to rank among the NL leaders in runs scored this year. So does San Diego, which wasn’t as expected. The Padres couldn’t get much of anything going at the plate last night, however. Here they’ll go up against Julio Urias. Urias was going to start Wednesday, but got pushed back to today, giving him one extra day of rest. In three starts, Urias has given up only four runs. He’s also yet to allow a home run. Chris Paddack of San Diego has allowed four HR’s in his last three starts, which is a concern facing a Dodgers lineup that had homered in every game but two coming into the series. The Padres are giving up nearly 5.5 runs/game on the road. Play on LA DODGERS

AAA

This is a 10* on the OVER

It was a disappointing run in the bubble for New Orleans. A team that was “supposed” to force its way into a play-in series instead was eliminated from contention rather quickly. Zion Williamson’s minutes have been limited and as a result the Pelicans are only 2-5 SU. Orlando has made the playoffs. They will be the 8-seed in the Eastern Conference and face Milwaukee in the 1st round. Their only goal for this game is to stay healthy. Three of their top four scorers sat out Tuesday’s 106-98 loss vs. Brooklyn and that will again be the case tonight. But don’t be surprised if those who do take the floor for the Magic “let it fly” in what should turn into a “up and down” game between backups. New Orleans won’t play Williamson or Brandon Ingram as well as several other starters. A problem all year for the Pelicans has been their horrible defense and that’s with their better players suiting up. Orlando is 11-3 Over its last 14 vs. teams that have a losing record. There is no reason to believe there will be any semblance of defense in this game. Play on OVER.

AAA

This is an 8* on CHICAGO +1.5

The Blackhawks did not have much of an answer for the Golden Knights in Game 1, losing 4-1, and they now face an uphill climb down 0-1 in the series. Vegas, who has yet to lose since the restart (4-0), has scored four or more goals in every game so far. But they trailed by multiple goals in each of the first two games and then needed overtime to best Colorado and earn the West’s #1 overall seed. We’ll call for Chicago to be more competitive here in Game 2, which is pretty close to a “must win” for them in a best of seven series. Note that the Blackhawks have gone 6-1 the last seven times they’ve been off a loss by three or more goals. That includes a Game 3 win against Edmonton in the qualification round. Play CHICAGO +1.5

AAA

This is a 10* on UNDER

The Nationals and Mets face off early Thursday afternoon in what will be the finale of a four-game series. Washington won the first two games, 16-4 and 2-1, but yesterday was New York’s turn to put some runs on the board as they took home an 11-6 ‘W.’ There were seven total runs scored in the first inning of last night’s game, three by the visitors and four more by the home team. We look for more of a “pitcher’s duel” today. The Nats numbers against lefties are BAD as they are hitting just .207 in games where they face a starter that’s a southpaw and averaging 1.9 runs/game. Here they are up against David Peterson whose three starts have been respectable to the tune of a 3.78 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. At the same time, the Mets offensive numbers are bad. They came into yesterday scoring only 3.2 runs/game at home. Austin Voth has two solid efforts under his belt for Washington as he’s allowed only three runs in 10 innings. Both starts stayed Under the total. In six of their last 11 games, the Nationals have scored three runs or fewer. Same for the Mets. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is an 8* on UNDER

Only pride will be on the line here as Boston looks to avoid injury and Washington looks to avoid going winless in the bubble. Admittedly, the Wizards had only a small chance of making the playoffs when they got the invite to Orlando. Not having Bradley Beal made those chances even smaller. They’ve gone 0-7 SU here, covering just one game and it was as a 10.5 point underdog in a 9-pont loss. Five of the Wizards losses have been by at least 11 points. The Celtics are locked into the 3-seed and what is looking like a favorable first round matchup with the 76ers. Do not expect their key contributors to play long, if they play much at all. Last time these teams played, the Wizards actually won a low-scoring 99-94 game. The time before that was 140-133 Boston, but that was with the Wiz getting 44 from Beal. Washington has shot very poorly during their time in the bubble and whomever the Celtics decide to trot out for this meaningless finale likely won’t be sharpshooters either. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is a 6* on MONTREAL +1.5

Philadelphia is the hottest team in the league since January 8th. They’d won 9 of 10 going into the shutdown and then won all three round robin games to earn the Eastern Conference’s top seed. Drawing Montreal in the Round of 16 seems like a gift based on seeding, but the Flyers must be wary of Carey Price, the Canadiens’ outstanding goaltender. Price gives his team a chance to steal any game, something the Penguins found out the hard way in the qualification series. It only took four games for the Habs to eliminate the Pens, which is somewhat of a shocking result given Pittsburgh came into the series at full strength. But Price was the difference maker with a .947 save percentage. That’s the best save percentage for any goalie in the bubble. Montreal being a 12-seed is something that can be overlooked. Twice in the Pittsburgh series, we took the Habs +1.5. Both times they won. At the very least, look for Price to keep Game 1 within a one-goal margin. Play on MONTREAL +1.5

AAA

This is a 10* on PHILADELPHIA

The Phillies keep finding ways to lose and last night’s 10-9 setback at the hands of the Baltimore Orioles may have taken the cake. Despite blowing an early 3-0 lead, Philly still found itself up a run heading into the ninth after a 3-run rally of their own in the bottom of the 8th. But then they gave up three runs in the top of the ninth. Still, they were able to tie it up by scoring two in the bottom half of the inning. But it just wasn’t meant to be as they gave up two in the 10th, then could only come up with one of their own. As frustrating a defeat as that defeat was, we think Philly overcomes it here as they send Eflin to the mound. Eflin didn’t allow any runs in his first start, which ended up being a 5-4 win against the Yankees. Baltimore goes with LeBlanc, whose three starts haven’t gone very well (6.91 ERA), especially the last one where he allowed six runs in 3 ⅓. The Orioles, projected to be the worst team in baseball by many, now have a winning record at 8-7. That isn’t going to last. They had a previous three-game win streak and promptly got shut out the next two games. Play on PHILADELPHIA 

AAA

This is an 8* on TORONTO

Yesterday marked the first MLB game played in Buffalo in the last 105 years and things ended up turning out well for the “home team.” Toronto, playing its “home games” here due to COVID-19 concerns, was able to take the game in extra innings by a count of 5-4. It was the Marlins’ third straight loss following a 7-1 start. Obviously, Miami was going to start trending in a negative direction sooner rather than later and we think it will continue here on Wednesday as they wrap up this first series in upstate NY. Blue Jays starter Pearson has pitched better than his 0-2 TSR as he’s got a 2.70 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. Both starts saw him last five innings and allow just two hits. The only three runs he’s allowed all came in the last outing due to some control issues. But Pearson also has 10 strikeouts in as many innings. Miami, whose roster is still thin because of COVID-19, sends Jordan Yamamoto to the mound. He allowed four runs in his only 2020 start. Again, the Marlins were due to start regressing and unfortunately for them that’s not going to end after three straight losses. Play on TORONTO

AAA

This is an 8* on PHILADELPHIA

It’s a battle of backups Wednesday but we’re counting on the Sixers showing a little pride in this early evening matchup against the Raptors. It’s not like Philadelphia has played poorly its last two games, where they have been almost entirely without the services of Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid. Simmons’ season is now over while Embiid was hurt early in the 124-121 loss to Portland Sunday night. Yesterday saw Philly compete for 3+ quarters against a highly motivated Suns squad. This is a lot of points to lay with a Raptors team that has nothing to play for as they are locked into the Eastern Conference’s second seed. Coming off an impressive win against Milwaukee on Monday, their level of motivation for this one can certainly be called into question. Their last four victories have come by an average of just 7.5 points/game. Play on PHILADELPHIA

AAA

This is a 10* on COLORADO

They didn’t earn the West’s top seed. But Colorado is a team to watch. Not just in this series, which they figure to dominate. But throughout the entire playoffs as they are very capable of making a deep run. The Avalanche had the West’s #1 goal differential before the stoppage. Here in the Round of 16, they draw an Arizona team that’s off its first playoff series win in eight years. That came on the heels of their GM quitting right before entering the bubble. While the Coyotes may not have had much trouble dispatching Nashville in four games, the Avs are a whole different class of opponent. They had the possession advantage in all three round robin games, averaging 37.7 shots on goal while allowing only 28.3. Arizona’s Darcy Keumper was as good as expected against the Preds, but he faced 163 shots in the qualification round, which was more than any other goaltender. Once again, he figures to be under siege in this series. The only difference being that Colorado has more talented skaters than Nashville. Interesting that the ‘Yotes are just 9-20 the last 29 times playing on three or more days rest. Look for the Avs to roll in Game 1. Play on COLORADO

AAA

This is a 10* on BOSTON

Boston had the most points in the league (100) when the season stopped in March. Three consecutive losses since the restart have them as the 4-seed in the Eastern Conference. It can be argued that’s unfair, but don’t expect any sympathy from the Carolina Hurricanes, who are thinking about revenge after being swept by the Bruins in last year’s Eastern Conference Final. A lot of momentum is with the ‘Canes right now after they won three straight games over the Rangers, the only sweep of the qualification round. But it would be foolish to discount the defending Eastern Conference Champs. Just go ahead and reread the first sentence of this analysis. There is also the question of “rust” for Carolina as they have not played a game in a full week. The Hurricanes have lost to the Bruins six straight times and have beaten them just once in 10 tries. This is a great “buy low” opportunity on the Bruins. Play on BOSTON

AAA

This is an 8* on LA DODGERS

The Padres switched starters on the Dodgers yesterday and it paid off as Luis Perdomo and five relievers held LA to just four hits in a 2-1 victory. It was one of the Dodgers’ weaker efforts at the plate so far this season. They went 1 for 8 with runners in scoring position and failed to homer for the first time in 11 games. But it’s important to know they are averaging 5.0 runs/game, making them one of baseball’s highest scoring teams. Tonight they get to face Garrett Richards, who we were set to play against yesterday (before the pitching change) as he’s allowed four runs in consecutive starts. Los Angeles has won all three previous starts of Ross Stripling, who will go again tonight. The most recent was against Richards and the Padres last week. The Dodgers have a much better bullpen than the Padres. They are also 4-1 off a loss this season. Play on LOS ANGELES

AAA

This is an 8* on WASHINGTON

Washington jumped all over the hapless Mets on Monday and never looked back, eventually winning by a score of 16-4. After taking that kind of beating, it’s tough to like the Mets chances tonight as they have to face Max Scherzer. Though a sore hamstring caused him to exit his last start after just one inning, Scherzer looked really good in the start before that one. He threw 7 ⅓ scoreless innings against Toronto on 7/29. He had 21 strikeouts in his first two starts. The Mets are a disaster. Their bullpen is in shambles and you shouldn’t trust today’s starter Rick Porcello, who allowed 13 runs his first two starts. Now Porcello did bounce back with a strong effort against Scherzer and the Nationals last week. But we’ll go with the revenge angle and the better team Tuesday. Again, Scherzer lasted just one inning in that first go-around and it’s not because he was ineffective. The Mets have a bottom five run differential in all of baseball. Play on WASHINGTON

AAA

This is an 8* on TORONTO

For the first time in 135 years, the city of Buffalo will host a regular season Major League Baseball game. COVID-19 means the Blue Jays can’t play in Toronto so they chose (were forced to?) their Triple-A affiliate’s stadium to be the new home. The Jays are 5-8 coming into this “home opener” and will no doubt be happy to be here, even if it isn’t “really” home. They’ll host a team that’s had to endure its own coronavirus-related drama, Miami, who has managed to start 7-3. But the Marlins have lost two in a row as reality seems to be setting in for a team that wasn’t expected to be very competitive in 2020. Remember that four of the Marlins wins were against a terrible Baltimore team and that was after a long, quarantine-induced layoff. Their record is phony and the roster is thin. Elieser Hernandez didn’t allow a run when he faced Baltimore last week, but also only went 4 1/3 innings. We like what we saw out of Hyun-Jin Ryu in his last start for Toronto as he tossed five shutout innings of one-hit ball with eight strikeouts. Play on TORONTO

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

With only a couple days left in the regular season, perhaps the biggest remaining storyline is who will get the 8-seed in the Western Conference. Memphis currently has the spot as they occupied it coming into the bubble. But things have not gone well here in Orlando where the Grizzlies record is just 1-5. A loss to Toronto on Sunday kept them from clinching a spot in the now guaranteed play-in series, which is set to begin Saturday. Memphis didn’t shoot the ball well against Toronto. The bench outscored the starters in the 1st half, the team was just 30% overall from the field in the 3rd quarter and finished the game at 33% (14-42) from three-point range. Off an OT win against the Magic, Boston is locked in as the 3-seed in the East. So they probably won’t have the same motivation as Memphis here. But with the Celtics having gone Over in five of their six games, what we can expect is a high-scoring game Tuesday. The Celtics have given up more than 115 points/game in the bubble and struggle to defend the interior. The Over is 18-3 the Grizzlies’ L21 games vs. teams with a winning record. Play on OVER

AAA

NO ACTION

This is a 10* on TEXAS

Over the weekend we saw the Rangers sweep the Angels while the Mariners were very nearly swept (at home) by the Rockies. These two AL West sides start a series on Monday and it certainly appears that the home team has a distinct advantage. Over the first eight games in their new stadium, the Rangers have allowed just 22 runs to be scored. Seattle has given up 51 runs in eight road games, more than double what Texas has allowed at home. The pitching matchup for tonight seems likely to follow the script as Gibson has a 2.45 ERA for Texas while Dunn has a 6.43 ERA for Seattle. Making matters even worse for the road team is the fact the bullpen has a 6.03 road ERA. After playing the last 10 games all at home (and going just 3-7), hitting the road may very well be a tough transition for these young Mariners, who were held to three runs or fewer in half the games on the just completed homestand. Going back to last season, Seattle has lost seven of its last eight series openers. They are just 4-10 the last 14 games at Texas. Play on TEXAS

AAA

This is an 6* on PHOENIX

The Suns have been the hottest team in the league since the restart. They’re 5-0 SU/ATS, which has them on the cusp of the Western Conference’s play-in scenario. Finishing 8th and not 9th has its advantages in that you only have to win once (as opposed to twice) to make the playoffs. But right now the Suns just need to keep winning as they are 10th, a full game behind 9th place Portland (won Sunday) and 1.5 games back of 8th place Memphis (lost yesterday) They’ve already beaten four teams with .500 or better records here in Orlando, the latest being Miami by a score of 119-112 - as a 4-point favorite - on Saturday. They were led by Devin Booker’s 35 points. We have to admit that it was a bit eye-opening to see the Suns open as the favorite here and get bet up. But they’ll have more motivation than the Thunder, who also are at the disadvantage of having played yesterday. Oklahoma City won Sunday, 121-103, but don’t put a ton of stock into that as they played Washington (worst team in the bubble). They also made a season-high 18 three-pointers, shooting that won’t be matched today. Unlike all the other teams competing for the 8-seed, Phoenix can claim to have a positive net efficiency rating for the year. This team has the momentum and you should expect them to win Monday afternoon. Play on PHOENIX

AAA

This is an 8* on TORONTO 

It’s come down to one game for all the marbles between Columbus and Toronto. The winner moves on to the Round of 16 while the loser’s season is done. After the Blue Jackets stunned the Maple Leafs in Game 3, rallying back from a three-goal deficit to win 4-3 in overtime, the Leafs did the exact same thing in Game 4. Albeit their rally was much more dramatic with three goals being scored in the last four minutes of regulation. They tied it up with only 23 seconds left. That is a very tough loss to get over if you’re Columbus. They also gave up 53 shots on goal. Though there are no fans, playing on home ice should provide a theoretical boost to Toronto. Momentum is on their side. Play on TORONTO

AAA

This is a 10* on HOUSTON

Houston is likely to finish anywhere from 4th to 6th when the “regular season” concludes. Normally, finishing 4th would be a big deal as it would earn you home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. But there is no home court advantage any more. Despite that lack of incentive, we still expect the Rockets to “go off” on Sunday against a Kings team that is prone to far too many defensive lapses. Time is running out on the Kings to finish in a position where they could play themselves into the postseason. The way things stand now, they’d have to jump four teams. It’s not mathematically impossible by any means, however, it’s highly unlikely considering the Kings record thus far is 1-4 and they just lost to Brooklyn by double digits. Houston has beaten both Milwaukee and the Lakers and while LA didn’t have LeBron, the Rockets didn’t have Russell Westbrook in that game either. Westbrook is again expected to sit out here but with James Harden still in the lineup, you can look for Houston to score plenty against the team that’s posted the worst defensive efficiency rating in the league since the restart. The Rockets are off three straight Unders and have gone 6-1 ATS in that situation this season. Play on HOUSTON

AAA

This is an 8* on PORTLAND

Saturday was a blown opportunity for the Blazers as they led a lead get away and lost to the Clippers, who were playing without Kawhi Leonard. This leaves them 1.5 games behind Memphis for the 8th spot in the West. The Grizzlies are heavy underdogs to the Raptors today, so a win here could very well pull Portland back within one-half game. All they have to do is finish 9th to force a play-in but finishing 8th has its advantages. Also the Blazers must worry about all the teams that are narrowly behind them as finishing 9th is far from a given. Bottom line is that today is “must-win” territory against a Sixers team that was already offensively challenged before losing Ben Simmons. Philadelphia is 3-1 SU in the bubble, but only 1-3 ATS. This will be the first time that the 76ers have been an underdog in a game. They are just 6-16 SU in the underdog role for the season and among those still playing, they have the worst road record of any team besides Washington. Portland really has to have this game. Play on PORTLAND

AAA

This is a 10* on COLORADO

Colorado improved to a MLB-best 11-3 yesterday with a 5-0 win over Seattle. It was the Rockies second straight win here in the Pacific Northwest as they won Friday’s game by a count of 8-4. Given how each team’s season has started, it’s definitely a little surprising to still be able to get the Rockies at a somewhat affordable price. The Mariners are one of the worst teams in baseball so far at 5-11. No one has been outscored by more runs as they are -40 in that department. Tilting things even further in Colorado’s direction for Sunday is that German Marquez will be starting the game. Marquez has a 1.89 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. He’s allowed just four runs in 19 innings and has a win over Oakland. The Rockies are allowing just over two runs per game on the road. Seattle is averaging less than three runs per game at home. Justus Sheffield’s first two starts for the M’s haven’t gone well with the team losing by a combined 18 runs to Oakland and the Angels. The Mariners bullpen has been especially horrible. The Rockies should finish off the sweep in easy fashion today. Play on COLORADO

This is a 10* on UNDER

Every Raptors game so far has gone Under the total. The reigning NBA Champs would just as soon like to forget the last one though as they lost 122-100 to the Boston Celtics. That game stayed Under by half a point. It was the Raptors first loss since the restart as they’d opened 3-0 straight up and against the spread with wins over the Lakers, Miami and Orlando. They held all three of those teams to 103 points or less. We should see Toronto getting back to playing that caliber of defense on Sunday as they face a Memphis team that’s off a huge upset win and thus likely to experience some offensive regression in this spot. The Grizzlies stunned the Thunder 121-92 on Friday for their first win here in Orlando. Previously, they’d gone 0-4 SU/ATS. Worth noting Memphis will likely wind up being favored in only one of its eight games as they look to preserve their hold on the 8th seed in the Western Conference. We don’t really like their chances nor do we think they’ll come close to the 55% shooting we saw against the Thunder. Remember that Jaren Jackson is out and Ja Morant has been struggling with his shot. On the bright side, Toronto has shot better than 44% in only one of its four games so far. Of the last 45 times these teams have hooked up, 31 games have stayed Under. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is an 8* on STEWART

Stewart is a former light heavyweight who has won his last two UFC fights. Early on during the pandemic, he took a “one-off” booking (March 20th) for the Cage Warriors promotion and suffered a somewhat shocking loss, via decision, to Bartosz Fabinski. After beating an elite wrestler like Deron Winn, the Fabinski loss was definitely a “head-scratcher” for Stewart. But back in the “Octagon,” we should see him get back to his winning ways. Stewart has been a much more patient fighter as a middleweight and that was the key to his back to back victories in the latter half of last year. Pitolo has some knockout power, but that’s about it and he’s a horrible defensive fighter. He has only two UFC fights under his belt, the first being a loss to Callan Potter. He rallied to knockout Charles Byrd two months ago, but this is a pretty quick turnaround for Pitoli to face a vastly superior fighter. Stewart grinding out another decision victory is the most likely outcome here, but do not be surprised if he finishes Pitolo early. Play on STEWART

AAA

This is an 8* on SAN DIEGO

The Padres made a nice “recovery” Friday night by shutting out Arizona 3-0. It was a good spot for them after an off-day on Thursday. They’d previously lost four of five including two straight to the Dodgers, the last one coming in heartbreaking fashion as a runner was thrown out at the plate to end the game. The Padres are now 4-1 this year vs. the struggling Diamondbacks, who have the worst run differential so far in the National League. Arizona had picked up a couple surprise wins over Houston earlier in the week, but given their lack of hitting (2.8 runs/game on the road), it was only a matter of time before they cooled back down. Tonight they’ve got to face Chris Paddack, who has allowed just five runs across three starts so far. The first of those was six shutout innings vs. Arizona. The Diamondbacks go with Merrill Kelly, who took a no-hitter into the 7th inning against Texas on 7/28. But then he gave up two home runs to the Dodgers in a 3-0 loss last time out. The Padres homered three times (also solo shots) yesterday, so look out for the long ball. Play on SAN DIEGO

AAA

This is a 10* on TAMPA BAY

This game will determine who gets the 1-seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs. We’re still waiting on an official start time for the game, but that doesn’t impact the play at all. We’re backing the Lightning here as they look to be the 1-seed for the third year in a row. Going back to before the shutdown, Philadelphia was among the hottest teams in the league. They’d won 9 of 10 and came out and beat Boston and Washington by scores of 4-1 and 3-1. Tampa Bay has wins over those same two teams, both by 3-2 margins. A nice little edge here for the Lightning is that they last played on Wednesday while the Flyers last played Thursday. Another edge for the Lightning is that they have owned the Flyers the last couple seasons, taking seven in a row. TB has scored five or more goals in all but one of those seven wins. Still concerning to us is the fact the Flyers gave up more goals than they allowed this year when playing on the road. Play on TAMPA BAY

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This is a 10* on TUCKER

Big edge for Tucker here as Jaynes is facing a quick turnaround and a weight cut down to 145 pounds. Jaynes just made his UFC debut in June, knocking out Frank Camacho, but that fight was at lightweight (155 pounds). Jaynes has actually fought as heavy as 170 lbs (welterweight) previously, so cutting weight is nothing new. But fighting this light is and Jaynes has been pretty forthright in letting everyone know he wished this fight was taking place a couple of weeks later. Jaynes was a +250 underdog on the money line when he knocked out Camacho in 41 seconds. A second straight upset seems unlikely. Meanwhile, Tucker hasn’t fought in over a year. His last fight saw him bounce back from his only career defeat (11-1) when he choked out Seung Woo Choi. Tucker also had a 37-23 edge in significant strikes, a nice sign after the infamous beating he took at the hands of Rick Glenn at UFC 215. The edge goes to Tucker Saturday. Play on TUCKER

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This is an 8* on LA -1.5

Shockingly, the Dodgers could only manage a four-game split with the Giants when they met two weeks ago in LA. The Dodgers took the first two games 9-1 and 8-1 and everything seemed normal. But then they lost the next two two, 5-4 and 3-1, both losses coming as huge money line favorites. Everything points in the Dodgers direction for Friday, the first time they’ll have faced their rivals since the four-game split. The Dodgers are 7-2 since that series and own the best run differential in baseball at +33. The Giants have gone just 4-6 their L10 and were beaten yesterday in Colorado 6-4. The Dodgers had Thursday off after a thrilling win over the Padres the night prior. Today’s starting pitching matchup looks very one-sided with Urias having a 2.45 ERA for LA and Samardzija having a 9.31 ERA for SF. Playing the run line here, that means the Dodgers have to win by two runs. Shouldn’t be a problem. Play on LA DODGERS -1.5 (RUN LINE)

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This is a 10* on TORONTO 

The defending NBA Champion Raptors don’t get the respect they deserve, but they are very likely to get the East’s #2 seed. They can clinch that position with a win tonight over Boston, who is in the #3 spot and likely to finish there. Going back to before the lockdown, Toronto has won seven in a row. That is the longest active win streak in the NBA. They’ve won their three games in Orlando by holding opponents to an average of 98 points/game. That’s remarkable considering how much scoring we’ve seen in the bubble. Even scarier is that Kyle Lowry has shot just 4 for 17 from the field the last two games. Look for his shooting to improve tonight. Boston was red hot shooting the ball Tuesday (56.8 FG%!) but that was against a weak Brooklyn team. The Celtics have issues defending as they’ve given up 112 points in every game so far. Their interior defense was a big question mark heading into the restart and remain so. The Raptors are 29-19 ATS as favorites this season. Play on TORONTO

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This is an 8* on the ANGELS

So the Angels were a nice winner for us yesterday. They beat Seattle 6-1, making it a winning series (took two of three games), and are now 5-8 on a season that’s more than 20% complete (crazy!). With the top two spots in the division likely to go to Houston and Oakland, it really is important for the Angels to beat up on the Mariners and Rangers this year. What they just accomplished in Seattle was a nice start and now they get their chance against Texas, who is in a bad way at 3-8. The Rangers just got swept in Oakland and have lost five of their last six games. Friday starter Jordan Lyles was pretty bad in his first outing of 2020, giving up four runs in four innings with five walks. We’ll go with Griffin Canning in this one. The Angels starter had six strong innings vs. Houston last weekend where he allowed just one run and his team won 6-1 as a +140 dog. As we went over yesterday, the Angels lineup has been a lot better since Mike Trout returned. Play on LA Angels

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