Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-07-20 | Marlins v. Braves -190 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 17 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER With a huge 7th inning, Atlanta powered past Miami 9-5 in Game 1. That was a good result on this end as we took the Braves. For a while there, things looked a bit dicey. The Braves were down 4-3 entering the home half of the 7th, but that’s when they sprung for six runs as the Marlins bullpen really failed starter Sandy Alcantara. Unfortunately for Miami, Alcantara can’t pitch every day. While charged with five runs, Alcantara only gave up three. We’ve got less faith in a quality start from Game 2 starter Pablo Lopez as he didn’t have any such outing in six away starts in the regular season. This will be Lopez’s postseason debut and he’s up against the second highest scoring team in baseball. One of Lopez’s three starts vs. Atlanta in the regular season saw him give up seven runs in 1 ⅔. For what it’s worth, Miami has scored five runs in two of its three playoff games. So they should be able to put enough on the board to help Game 2 go Over. The Braves go with Ian Anderson, who is off an excellent start in the 1st round vs. Cincinnati. But Anderson didn’t win either of his 2020 starts vs. the Marlins. Over is 20-9-4 L33 times Atlanta has been a favorite. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-06-20 | Lakers v. Heat +7.5 | Top | 102-96 | Win | 100 | 26 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI Turns out that people were writing off Miami a little earlier than they should have. As a 9-point underdog, the Heat won Game 3 outright, 115-104. They were led by Jimmy Butler’s triple double of 40 points, 11 rebounds and 13 assists. That’s just a tremendous individual effort in the wake of the injuries to both Bam Adebayo and Goran Dragic. Neither of those two are guaranteed to return for Game 4 (though Adebayo has said “he hopes to”). Nevertheless, even without Adebayo and Dragic, Miami starters outscored their Lakers brethren 89-51 in Game 3. The Heat have shot better than 50% overall the L2 games, so they’re pretty locked in offensively right now. As we’ve talked about before, there’s a lot of talent on hand for coach Erik Spoelstra, such as Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson and Jae Crowder. All three of those players were in double figures in Game 3. For the Lakers, beyond LeBron James and Anthony Davis, there isn’t exactly a ton of talent depth. Though the Lakers have not dropped two straight in any playoff series so far, it is Miami that owns the better ATS record (13-4-1) this postseason and, while the number is down from Game 3, they are still getting too many points here. LA is just 2-8-1 ATS the L11 times they have been off an ATS loss. We never stopped believing that the Heat could compete in this series and taking the points is the way to go for Game 4! Play on MIAMI AAA |
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10-06-20 | Aces v. Storm OVER 170.5 | Top | 59-92 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER Sue Bird and the Seattle Storm are one win away from a 4th WNBA title. Standing in their way is the Las Vegas Aces, whom they’ve already beaten 93-80 and 104-91 in the first two games. The Aces face a daunting task having to beat the Storm three times in a row, but will undoubtedly be “ready to go” in Game 3. All five Seattle starters were in double figures in Game 2, led by Breanna Stewart’s 22, but what really caught our eye was the Finals’ record 33 assists the team dished out. What has to be disheartening for Las Vegas is that they shot 52.0%, scored 91 points and still lost by double digits. (Seattle shot 57.1% in Game 2 after shooting 50.0% in Game 1). But Aces coach Bill Laimbeer (yes, him!) rightly pointed to the fact his team shot only FIVE free throws in Game 2). During the regular season, LV averaged 23 FT’s per game. WIth Laimbeer being vocal about the FT disparity in the last game, expect his team to get more attempts from the charity stripe tonight. The first two games of this WNBA Finals have obviously been very high scoring (especially the last one) and we don’t see any reason why Game 3 should be any different. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-06-20 | Marlins v. Braves -193 | Top | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 18 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 7* on ATLANTA The Miami Marlins have somehow made it to the LDS. Shockingly, it didn’t take them very long to eliminate the Cubs as the pitching staff allowed just ONE run in the two game sweep at Wrigley. This is a team that was shut out more times than anybody in the regular season and finished with a -41 run differential. Of course, that run differential was largely irrelevant once the postseason began. However, it is INSTRUCTIVE and indicative of the kind of team they truly are. We just are not buyers on them right now as they get set to face an Atlanta team that - unlike the Cubs - can score runs in bunches. The Braves also made short work of their first round opponent, Cincinnati, holding them to ZERO runs in two games and keep in mind they had to play 22 innings of baseball (Game 1 went 13). While the Braves’ offensive prowess wasn’t really on display vs. the Reds, they did score the second most runs in all of baseball during the regular season. The Game 1 starter for Atlanta is Max Fried and he hasn’t dropped a decision in 2020, going 7-0 in his 12 starts (11-1 TSR) with a 2.00 ERA. That includes two vs. Miami (both Atlanta wins). Sandy Alcantara is Miami’s Game 1 starter, and while a worthy adversary, he’s facing a much tougher lineup than what Fried will see Tuesday. The Braves are also 12-3 in day games this season. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
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10-05-20 | Yankees v. Rays +1.5 | Top | 9-3 | Loss | -128 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TAMPA BAY +1.5 (RUN LINE) The Yankees and Rays meet in the LDS. Though Tampa Bay finished with the best record in the American League, they are the underdogs in Game 1. We see some real value on the Rays in this situation, especially when it comes to the run line where we can get an additional 1.5 runs at a fairly reasonable price. The Rays were 8-2 against the Yankees in the regular season, beating Game 1 starter Gerritt Cole twice. While Cole has been excellent over the last month, he’s been getting a ton of run support and that doesn’t figure to be the case here as Tampa Bay goes with Blake Snell, who has been every bit as good as Cole recently and over the course of the whole season for that matter. Snell allowed just one hit to Toronto in the last series and it was the third time in the past four starts he gave up one run or less. One of the Yankees two wins in Cleveland was by one run as they had to rally back from a 4-run deficit. The Rays are 32-12 vs. righties this season, the Yankees are just 7-8 vs. lefties. While this series is being contested in San Diego, not Tropicana Field in Tampa Bay, it still matters that the Yankees weren’t a great road team in the regular season. Five of the 14 homers that Cole has allowed this year came by the Rays. Play on TAMPA BAY +1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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10-05-20 | Astros v. A's -135 | Top | 10-5 | Loss | -135 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OAKLAND Division rivals Houston and Oakland meet in this best of five LDS. Obviously, the teams are very familiar with one another and there’s some bad blood. The A’s went 7-3 against the Astros in the regular season, 6-1 at home, but that latter record really doesn’t matter now as this series is being contested in Los Angeles. Still, the fact the A’s beat the Astros in 7 of 10 head to head matchups remains relevant. They were the better team all year as they won the AL West and had a much better run differential than Houston. Chris Bassitt will get the Game 1 nod for the A’s after a great start in the last round against the White Sox. Bassitt went 7 innings and allowed just one run as he improved his team start record this year to 9-3. He has 2.19 ERA and 1.143 WHIP. For Houston, Lance McCullers got the surprising call over Zack Greinke and we think that’ll end up being a mistake. McCullers had an 0-4 TSR in September (did not pitch against the Twins) and did not win any of his six starts away from home during the regular season (7.33 ERA, 1.71 WHIP). Play on OAKLAND AAA |
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10-04-20 | Eagles v. 49ers OVER 45 | Top | 25-20 | Push | 0 | 125 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Two playoff teams from last season both have their fair share of issues going into Sunday night. The 49ers are as banged up as any team in football right now, having already lost their QB, RB, top two receivers and top two defensive players. Some of those players could return this week though. TE George Kittle is the most likely (to return) while WR Samuel also could find his way back on the field. Regardless of the absences, the 49ers have found a way to score 30+ points in back to back games. Backup QB Nick Mullens is fine. Philadelphia is 0-2-1 with QB Carson Wentz struggling. But we can seem him getting things going this week against a 49ers defense whose numbers are skewed after facing the likes of Sam Darnold and Daniel Jones the last two weeks. Two of the Eagles three games have gone Over and had they not settled for a tie with the Bengals last week, the Over would be 3-0. This is a low total relative to the rest of this week’s card. The Over is 18-5 the L23 times Philly has been a road underdog. It is 6-2 Over the L8 times the 49ers have been home favorites. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-04-20 | Seahawks -6.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 31-23 | Win | 100 | 149 h 6 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SEA Seattle, for all its defensive faults, still has Russell Wilson and as long as they’re letting the early frontrunner for MVP “cook,” they’ll be just fine. A Miami team that’s off a very misleading 31-13 win over Jacksonville 10 days ago is simply no match here. The Dolphins actually gained less than 300 total yards in that Thursday night win, a number which simply won’t cut it against an opponent like the Seahawks that has put up 35+ points in every game. Wilson’s 14 TD passes through three weeks is an NFL record. The Miami defense really struggled against running QBs Cam Newton and Josh Allen the first two weeks. They gave up an alarming number of yards per play against Buffalo in Week 2. Early start times don’t bother the 3-0 ATS Seahawks, who have covered the number 7 of the last 9 times they’ve played at 1 PM ET (7-1-1). That includes a dominant win over Atlanta in Week 1 (they are the only team not to fall behind by double digits against the Falcons). Laying less than a touchdown is key here. Play on SEATTLE AAA |
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10-04-20 | Saints -4 v. Lions | Top | 35-29 | Win | 100 | 118 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 8* on NO New Orleans is off to a bit of a slow start. After beating Tampa Bay in Week 1, the Saints have subsequently lost to the Raiders and Packers, leaving them at 1-2 despite being a favorite all three times. They’re a favorite again here in Detroit against a Lions team that just won for the first time last week, a surprise upset at Arizona. This marks the first time the Saints have lost two straight in three years. They are expected to get WR Michael Thomas back, which is huge, and laying points shouldn’t concern you as the team’s 12-4 record as a road favorite is a league-best since 2016. Overall, they’ve covered 24 of their last 33 road games, also the best run in the league. There really is nothing wrong with the Saints offense as Alvin Kamara has a NFL-high six touchdowns and now gets to go against a Detroit defense that has really struggled for Matt Patricia. If not for a +3 turnover margin last week vs. Arizona, the Lions would likely be 0-3 coming into this game. Laying a short number seems like a real steal given the disparity in talent between the two teams. Play on NEW ORLEANS AAA |
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10-04-20 | Browns +5 v. Cowboys | Top | 49-38 | Win | 100 | 118 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CLE Even though the Cowboys are 1-2, they are still considered one of the more talented teams in this league. And the Browns needed five turnovers last week to beat Washington 34-20. So “the world” figures to be laying the points in this one. But we’re taking ‘em (the points, that is) as Dallas would be 0-3 right now had they not delivered that miracle comeback in Atlanta two weeks ago. They are 0-3 against the spread. In three games, they have had the lead for less than 14 minutes. The defense has given up 77 points the last two games and now faces a Browns offense that has scored 69 the last two weeks. Cleveland has a very good running game, thanks to perhaps the best duo of backs in the league, Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. That Dallas defense is giving up over 400 yards per game including 128 on the ground. The Cowboys have covered just one of the last five times they have been the betting favorite. Play on CLEVELAND AAA |
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10-04-20 | West Ham United v. Leicester -145 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -145 | 22 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LEICESTER CITY Leicester City is flying high so far having claimed all nine possible points from their three matches. While the club has NEVER opened with four straight wins in Premier League play, they are quite likely to change that in 2020 with an ideal matchup early Sunday at King Power Stadium against West Ham. WHU picked up its first win of the season last week and did so in shocking fashion, beating the Wolves 4-0. It was just the third clean sheet in the calendar year for the Hammers, the fewest of any Premier League club involved in both seasons. Fresh off that stunning upset, West Ham is ripe for a letdown this week as they face a side that has scored more times than any other club so far in this EPL season. They haven’t kept back to back clean sheets since September of 2019. Leicester won 5-2 last week against Man City, scoring on three penalties. They’ve now tallied 12 goals in the three games thus far. That’s three more than the next highest scoring team, Liverpool, who has nine goals. Can’t see West Ham slowing the Foxes down here. Play on LEICESTER CITY AAA |
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10-03-20 | Jinh Yu Frey v. Loma Lookboonmee -145 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 47 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on Lookboonmee This prelim bout is in the women’s strawweight division. Lookboonmee is coming off a loss by decision back in February that dropped her to 4-2 in her MMA career. Three of her four wins have come by decision, one of which was her UFC debut against Aleksandra Albu nearly one year ago. Frey just made her own UFC debut and was unsuccessful, losing by submission in June. She’s 9-4 with six wins coming by decision. In terms of striking ratio, Lookboonmee has a tremendous edge, landing 5.07 per minute while absorbing 3.77. Frey lands only 2.09 per minute while taking 2.49. Lookboonme will get the ‘W’ here as she’s got more experience inside the Octagon and far better striking. Play on LOOKBOONME AAA |
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10-03-20 | Auburn +7 v. Georgia | Top | 6-27 | Loss | -120 | 76 h 28 m | Show |
This is an 8* on AUBURN It didn’t take long for the SEC to produce its first top 10 showdown of 2020. It’ll go down this Saturday in Athens where #4 Georgia hosts #7 Auburn. The visiting Tigers have already beaten one Top 25 foe, that being Kentucky, in the opener last week. It was an impressive win too, 29-13, and it could have been even more lopsided had a 100-yard INT return not been called back on a questionable penalty. Georgia’s win last week wasn’t nearly as impressive, although the final score was 37-10. That was against Arkansas, who is certainly the worst team in the SEC West and probably the worst team in the whole league. The Bulldogs couldn’t run the ball against the Hogs, averaging only 2.9 yards per carry, and they have some real uncertainty at the QB position right now. The Dawgs trailed at halftime last week and didn’t take the lead for good until there were only six minutes left in the third quarter. So it was a bit of a misleading final score. It was a defensive score, late in the third, that really broke the game wide-open. Auburn hasn’t had much luck against Georgia in recent years, but three of the last five losses have been by just a touchdown. We like what we saw from QB Bo Nix last week and think this is the Tigers time to break through. Play on AUBURN AAA |
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10-03-20 | Oklahoma -7 v. Iowa State | Top | 30-37 | Loss | -105 | 76 h 58 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OKLA Oklahoma was shocked last week at home, blowing a three touchdown advantage and losing 38-35 to Kansas State. (We discussed this in the Kansas State writeup as well). That’s not what the Sooners were expecting in the Big 12 opener and now they’ll try and even their conference record up at 1-1 when they visit Ames Saturday night. Iowa State has also been at home this year. They lost their season opener 31-14 to Louisiana. Really, the Cyclones are lucky not to be 0-2 entering this game. They were outgained 499-423 last week by TCU, but did manage to hold on for the 37-34 victory. Under Matt Campbell, ISU has been more competitive vs. Oklahoma, but a 2017 upset in Norman remains the Cyclones lone victory in the last 21 tries. They’ve lost to them 24 straight times here in Ames. Oklahoma typically bounces back from a loss as they have not dropped two straight in the regular season since 1999. Last week was their first loss in September under Lincoln Riley. Unfortunately, this makes the second year in a row Iowa State has to face OU off a loss. Last year’s game was close (42-41) but having dropped to #18 in the rankings, the Sooners are out for blood here. Lay the short number. Play on OKLAHOMA AAA |
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10-03-20 | Ole Miss v. Kentucky -5.5 | Top | 42-41 | Loss | -113 | 72 h 18 m | Show |
This is an 8* on KENTUCKY Kentucky came up short against Auburn last week, losing 29-13. The game really swung on an interception near the end of the first half. Down 8-7 (yes, that was the score), UK had driven the ball 64 yards down to the Auburn 1 yard line. It was then QB Terry Wilson made a terrible decision and threw an interception that was returned the length of the field for a TD. The ‘pick-six’ was actually called back, but the INT was a mistake that the Wildcats never recovered from. They lost the turnover battle 3-0 and the game 29-13. Still that was a very good team they were up against on the road. A home game vs. Ole Miss should go a whole lot better. Ole Miss also lost to a top 10 team last week, 51-35 vs. Florida, though it was at home. Losing his debut wasn’t what Lane Kiffin wanted, but he was a heavy underdog. Still that underdog status doesn’t justify giving up over 600 yards, even though the Rebels gained 600+ themselves. It’s a much shorter line this week and that means trouble for Ole Miss as they’ve lost 13 straight times as a dog (just 4-9 ATS). They are also 3-6 SU, 1-8 ATS L9 road games. Lay the points with UK, who was ranked themselves last week and remains a good team. Play on KENTUCKY AAA |
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10-03-20 | Texas Tech v. Kansas State OVER 64 | Top | 21-31 | Loss | -105 | 72 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 8* on OVER Kansas State and Texas Tech had different results last Saturday, but both games were certainly high scoring. Kansas State pulled off what is - to this point - the upset of the season in College Football with a 38-35 stunner over Oklahoma. It wasn’t just that the Wildcats won as a four-touchdown underdog, but how. They came back from a 21-point second half deficit in Norman! Later in the day, Texas Tech happened to blow a late double digit lead against Texas and lost in overtime 63-56. That they lost was no matter to us. We had the Red Raiders plus the points and they easily covered. In fact, at no point during the game were they NOT covering. Facing each other this week, Kansas State and Texas Tech may have trouble duplicating the excitement of last week’s contests, but this should certainly be another high scoring one. Remember that not only did TT give up 63 points last week, they also permitted Houston Baptist to gain 600 yards in the season opener. Kansas State has given up 35 points in both of their games. We see both teams scoring 30+ again this week and that makes for an easy Over. The Over is 9-2-1 in the last 12 meetings. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-03-20 | Baylor -2.5 v. West Virginia | Top | 21-27 | Loss | -108 | 69 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BAYLOR Baylor FINALLY got to open its season last week and for first year coach Dave Aranda, the former defensive coordinator at LSU, it was worth the wait. The Bears made it look easy, beating Kansas 47-14 as a 17-point favorite. Now Aranda probably knows Kansas is as easy an opponent as you’ll find in the Big XII. But last week’s win definitely showed us this Bears team may be better than expected. Last year they were 11-3 in Waco, but no one is expecting a repeat of that in 2020. Still, the Bears do have Charlie Brewer back at QB and ran for over 200 yards last week. West Virginia only wishes it could say that about their offensive performance last week vs. Oklahoma State. But in a game they were pointing to all offseason, the Mountaineers came up well short. They scored only one offensive touchdown in a very disappointing 27-13 loss. While it’s a return to Morgantown this week, home field advantage doesn’t mean in 2020 what it used to and WVU has actually lost its last FIVE Big 12 home games! You can bet Baylor smells “blood in the water” as they seek to win for the first time ever in Morgantown. Off a better than expected performance last week, we’re on the road favorite. The Bears have won five straight times as a road favorite, covering four. Play on BAYLOR AAA |
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10-02-20 | Heat +9.5 v. Lakers | Top | 114-124 | Loss | -108 | 24 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIA Miami got blown out in Game 1. Along the way, Bam Adebayo, Goran Dragic and Jimmy Butler all got hurt. Butler will play in Game 2 but the other two are officially listed as doubtful. So basically everyone is going to write off the Heat. We will not. While injuries obviously do matter, this number is far off from where it was in Game 1 when a LOT of bettors were taking the points. If Miami does lose Game 2, it will be the first time they’ve lost consecutive games in the playoffs. The Lakers are 7-2-1 ATS L10 games, but several of those wins have come by single digits. This play is classic “zig zag theory” as the previous game loser was blown out and now getting more points to work with in the next game. Given all the hype that existed around Miami less than 48 hours ago, we believe it foolish to simply write them off after one bad loss. Their 2-3 zone can keep them in this one. Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro are a pair of 3-point specialists that can help Jimmy Butler with the offense. The Heat are 35-15-2 ATS off an ATS loss including 3-0 in the playoffs. Play on MIAMI AAA |
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10-02-20 | Louisiana Tech +24.5 v. BYU | Top | 14-45 | Loss | -105 | 54 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* on La Tech Louisiana Tech and BYU are both 2-0, but the Cougars have obviously been the more impressive of the two. That’s why they are favored by more than three touchdowns at home Friday night. However, we’re here to say that you should not go discounting the underdogs. La Tech has already gone on the road as an underdog one time and won. Granted, that was vs. Southern Miss, but a “win is a win.” Last week’s 66-38 beatdown over Houston Baptist now looks a bit more impressive in retrospect seeing as the Texas Tech team that almost upset Texas was given a run for their money by that particular FCS opponent. BYU has won 55-3 and 48-7 over Navy and Troy. But this is by far their biggest spread yet. They were only 1-pt favorites against Navy and 14.5-point favorites over Troy. Louisiana Tech isn’t a bad team by any means. They’ve won six straight bowl games and are 12-3 SU L15 games overall. Assuming they do lose for the first time in 2020, it won’t be without a fight. Do not forget BYU was 0-7 ATS as a favorite last season while La Tech is 9-3 ATS the L12 times it has been a dog. The Bulldogs are too good to be getting this kind of number. Play on LA Tech AAA |
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10-02-20 | Storm v. Aces +5 | Top | 93-80 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LAS VEGAS This is Game 1 of the Best of Five WNBA Finals. Both Seattle and Las Vegas were 18-4 in the regular season. Las Vegas swept the season series, though Seattle was dealing with key injuries for both games. The Aces did need the full five games to eliminate Connecticut in the semifinals while Seattle swept Minnesota. Now it's LV that’s going to be missing a key piece, Dearica Hamby, who suffered a season-ending knee injury in the Connecticut series. But the Aces still have both MVP A’ja Wilson as well as Angel McCoughtry under their sleeve and that should be plenty for them to cover the spread here. The Aces have covered five straight times as underdogs. Play on LAS VEGAS AAA |
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10-02-20 | Marlins v. Cubs -190 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -190 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 6* on the CUBS These teams were rained out Thursday, so they’ll give it a go again Friday. Miami won Game 1, 5-1, scoring all of their runs in the seventh. The loss was a real “head-scratcher” for the favored Cubs, who now need to win two straight or they’re eliminated. Fortunately for them (and us), it will be Yu Darvish getting the baseball for Game 2. Darvish had a really stellar regular season with the most wins among NL starters (8) and a career-low 2.10 ERA. Since the All-Star Break of last season, he has a 2.40 ERA with 211 strikeouts vs. only 21 walks in 157 ⅔ innings. He’s exactly who the Cubs want on the mound Friday. Making his first career playoff start will be Sixto Sanchez for Miami. After five strong outings to begin his rookie season, Sanchez didn’t finish well as over the final two, he allowed nine runs in seven innings. Miami is 25-52 L77 in Game 2 of a series. Play on CHICAGO AAA |
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10-01-20 | Broncos -1 v. Jets | Top | 37-28 | Win | 100 | 109 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DEN Denver has made the decision to start Brett Rypien at QB this week. He’ll be their third starter in as many weeks. The Broncos are 0-3 and averaging just 15 points/game. They are off a terrible showing vs. Tampa Bay where they were beaten 28-10 at home and barely gained over 200 yards. BUT…. Thursday night they are up against the Jets, who have been the WORST team in the league through three weeks. The Jets are also 0-3, but all of their losses have been by 10 points or greater. At least you can say Denver has been competitive this year as they lost to Tennessee on a last second field goal and then hung with the Steelers (in Pittsburgh), losing by just five points despite Jeff Driskell being called into emergency QB duty. The Jets only average 12.3 points/game and each loss has gotten progressively worse as they’ve lost by 10, 18 and then 29. Denver is 10-3 ATS their L13 Thursday night games and a perfect 5-0 ATS after being held to 15 points or less in their last game. While the injuries remain a concern, the Broncos were expected to be competitive this year. Can’t say the same for the Jets as Adam Gase has proven himself to be a horrendous coach. Rypien will play well enough to win here. Play on DENVER AAA |
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10-01-20 | Cardinals v. Padres -150 | Top | 9-11 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SD San Diego got blitzed in the first inning of Game 1 (allowed 4 runs) and never really recovered, losing 6-4. Now they face the possibility of elimination on Friday, a situation where we’ll back them. In retrospect, the decision to start Paddack in Game 1 will be second-guessed. He didn’t last long and the heavy bullpen usage yesterday leaves manager Jayce Tingler with some uncomfortable decisions for Game 3, if that’s even necessary. But tonight it’ll be Zach Davies on the mound and we look for him to be the star of the game. Davies has proven himself to be durable this season, going six or more innings in half of his starts. He was 7-4 in 12 starts (8-4 TSR) with a 2.73 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. Opponents hit just .216 off him and he allowed an on base percentage of only .269. In his 69 ⅓ innings pitched, he allowed just 55 hits and 63 strikeouts against only 19 walks. He’s always pitched well here at Petco Park where SD remains highly profitable to bet on this season. Cardinals starter Adam Wainwright has a 1-4 career record pitching here. Yesterday’s offensive explosion by St. Louis was rare for them and unlikely to be repeated. Padres are 6-1 L7 after allowing 5 or more runs in their last game. Play on SAN DIEGO AAA |
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09-30-20 | Heat v. Lakers OVER 217.5 | Top | 98-116 | Loss | -105 | 51 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Both the Heat and Lakers come into this series on a bit of an “Over roll.” Miami has gone Over in four straight and the Lakers three in a row. The Over was 5-0-1 in the Eastern Conference Finals. It was 4-1 in the Western Conference Finals. Miami’s shooting, which had begun to cool off as the ECF progressed, got hot again in a major way Sunday night in the close out game. They shot 56.3% overall and 48.1% from three against one of the better defensive teams in this league. The Lakers shot better than 50% three times against the Nuggets. LeBron James has not faced his former team in some time. You’d have to go all the way back to December when the Lakers won 113-110 down in Miami. Before that, the previous meeting was November of 2019! If you’re looking at playoff averages, Heat games are seeing 219.4 points/game scored. Lakers games are at 220.4. There were just two instances in LA’s last nine games where they did not score at least 110 points. Miami has hit 112 or higher seven times in its last 11 games. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-30-20 | Cardinals v. Padres -158 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -158 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SD San Diego enjoyed a real “breakout” 2020 season as they finished the regular season with the 2nd best run differential in all of baseball, trailing only the Dodgers. The Padres scored the third most runs and that’s despite a bit of an offensive slump in September. They have a formidable bullpen and for Game 1, Chris Paddack gets the start. Paddack ran “hot and cold” down the stretch, but does have a 1.07 WHIP at home this year. It’s good that the Padres got to secure home field advantage as they went 20-10 at Petco Park in the regular season including 9-3 as a favorite of -125 to -175. St. Louis is a team that didn’t qualify for the postseason until the final game and was downright mediocre all year. They often struggle to score runs, which should be obvious when you look back and see that they were shut out in two of the last three regular season games. They hit the fewest number of home runs this year (all teams). Kim will toe the rubber for the Cardinals in Game 1 and there’s a lot of pressure on him. The Cards have played 53 games in the last 44 days, including 11 doubleheaders, the latest of which was Friday. They may be a tired ballclub heading into the postseason. We just don’t think they can score enough to win today. Play on SAN DIEGO AAA |
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09-30-20 | Reds v. Braves -123 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 19 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ATLANTA This line is way too short given the rather sizable disparity that exists between the two clubs, offensively. Yes, there’s an outstanding starting pitching matchup here with Bauer going for the Reds and Fried for the Braves. Looking at the respective numbers of the two Game 1 starters, it’s essentially a wash. But the problem for Bauer and the Reds is that Atlanta simply has a much stronger lineup. Cincinnati might be the weakest hitting team to have EVER made the MLB playoffs. Atlanta scored the second most runs in all of baseball, trailing only the Dodgers. At home, they averaged 6.3 runs/game while the Reds average just 3.5. It’s asking a lot of Bauer to rectify that discrepancy by himself. The Reds offense ranked dead last in all of baseball in runs scored by means other than a HR. Braves pitching happened to allow the fewest % of runs via the HR in the league. Cincinnati hit just .211 on the season, making them a great matchup for a pitcher like Fried, who is 7-0 with a 2.25 ERA in 11 starts this year. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
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09-29-20 | Yankees -102 v. Indians | Top | 12-3 | Win | 100 | 27 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NYY The Yankees and Indians meet in perhaps the most evenly matched Round 1 series. A late regular season charge got Cleveland home field here but there was a lot of Detroit and Pittsburgh mixed in there. Also, don’t forget the Indians had an eight-game losing streak at the start of the month. Their lineup can really struggle to score runs at times. They barely averaged more than four runs/game during the regular season, which is why they didn’t finish higher in the standings, despite the excellent pitching. They scored three runs or less in nearly half their games (27 times!). As good as Game 1 starter Shane Bieber was in the regular season, he is untested in the playoffs. Can’t say the same for the Yankees Gerrit Cole, who is a postseason veteran. The Yankees also won his L3 regular season starts - by a combined score of 31-3! We think a Yankees lineup that is now as healthy as it’s been all year can get to Bieber. Cole’s ERA and WHIP - 0.86 and 0.62 - in his last three starts was every bit as good as Bieber. The Indians just don’t score enough! Play on NY YANKEES AAA |
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09-29-20 | White Sox v. A's OVER 7.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER The A’s got a pretty tough first round draw here with the White Sox, who - despite finishing as the 7-seed - were tied for the best run differential (+60) in the American League. Not only have these teams never met in the postseason, they didn’t meet all in 2020. We’ve got Lucas Giolito starting for the White Sox and Jesus Luzardo starting for the A’s in Game 1. Oakland home games were pretty low scoring in 2020 (averaged just 7.3 runs/game) but this is a low total and the White Sox average 5.1 runs/game. That was second most in the American League and they were second in slugging as well. Chicago’s last four regular season games went Over with them allowing 10 twice. None of those were with Giolito on the mound, but we’ve got to point out the fact he’s allowed at least one home run in four of his last five starts. Luzardo got this start because he’s been so good at home, but he too had a problem with the long ball of late. Luzardo also got to pitch against a lot of weak teams in the regular season. San Diego was one of the few top-level offensive teams he faced and he gave up four runs in 4 ⅔. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-28-20 | Chiefs +3.5 v. Ravens | Top | 34-20 | Win | 100 | 37 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* on KC What a matchup we have Monday night as it’s the Chiefs taking on the Ravens in a battle of the two top AFC teams. Winner here could very likely have an inside track on home field advantage for the playoffs, which is now more important than ever with the format having changed (only one team gets a first round bye). While Baltimore has won 14 straight regular season games outright (11-2-1 ATS!), all good things must come to an end as KC found out last week when their own 10-game ATS win streak ended with a close overtime victory in LA over the Chargers. The key here is the Chiefs being underdogs. They’ve covered 10 of the last 13 times getting points including 5-0-1 ATS with Mahomes as the starting QB. In the past 20 seasons, defending Super Bowl Champs getting points in the first three weeks of the season have gone a remarkable 11-1 ATS. Last week marked just the second time in Mahomes career that he didn’t cover in the month of September. In 12 career September games, he has an outrageous 28-0 TD-INT ratio! This matchup is a little bit of the “immovable object” against the “irresistible force” and we love the idea of getting points. Play on KANSAS CITY AAA |
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09-27-20 | Packers v. Saints OVER 51.5 | Top | 37-30 | Win | 100 | 122 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The Saints might be at home and favored, but the Packers are the team with all the momentum heading into this Sunday night matchup. Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay are 2-0, having put up two 40+ games so far. Now those came against Minnesota and Detroit, two teams that are a combined 0-4. But let’s not forget the Saints just allowed 34 points Monday night to Las Vegas. Even though the narrative is that New Orleans’ offense is “struggling,” that group is still averaging 29 points/game. Most teams would love for that to be considered “struggling.” The Over is a combined 4-0 in these teams games this season. Expect this to be another shootout as its two of the greatest quarterbacks of all time going up against some suspect defenses. Green Bay did allow a frightening number of yards per play against Minnesota in Week 1 (7.8). They also gave up touchdowns on the first two drives vs. Detroit. This is one of those deals where the oddsmakers probably can’t make the total “high enough” as the Over is 23-11 in GB’s last 34 road games. The Over has also gone 7-1 the last eight times these teams have played. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-27-20 | Celtics v. Heat +3.5 | Top | 113-125 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI Miami failed in its first try to put away Boston, uncharacteristically blowing a double digit lead. The game swung pretty dramatically in the third quarter when the Celtics outscored the Heat 41-25. Miami’s three-point shooting for the game (19.4%) was dreadful as it’s been now for the last 13 quarters of the series (below 25%!). Expect the Heat to rediscover their touch from downtown Sunday. As we know, the Heat have not lost two in a row since the playoffs began. They’ve only been beaten in regulation twice, both times in this series, in 14 games. Off a double digit loss, they are 9-3 SU this season. While we won’t predict the Heat win straight up here, it’s very likely that they will and thus finish off the series. Take the points. Play on MIAMI AAA |
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09-27-20 | Cowboys v. Seahawks -4.5 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 118 h 8 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SEATTLE This will be a big game in the 4PM (ET) window as the 2-0 Seahawks host the Cowboys. Dallas is very lucky not to be winless after two weeks. Last week, they had an incredible rally from a 19-point deficit that included 16 points in the final five minutes. It’s a good thing they were playing Atlanta as the Falcons seem like one of the few teams capable of blowing a lead like that. Seattle is a different story. Russell Wilson has this team looking very good. They didn’t have any problems with Atlanta, beating them 38-25 in Week 1. Then they came home to defeat New England 35-30 in the Sunday night game last week. The Seahawks offense is averaging 7.2 yards per play so far and it’s not like the Dallas defense has looked all that great. Mike McCarthy isn’t a great coach either. The Dallas offense, despite all the talent, tends to struggle on the road. Remember they lost to the Rams in Week 1 and scored only 17 points. That was the 4th straight road loss for Big D and the offense has failed to score a TD in two of those four losses. In its last 45 drives on the road, the Cowboys have found the end zone a total of five times and three of those were in the fourth quarter of a 31-24 loss at Chicago. They are just 2-7 ATS L9 games vs. a team that has a winning record. Play on SEATTLE AAA |
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09-27-20 | Panthers v. Chargers -6.5 | Top | 21-16 | Loss | -109 | 118 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the CHARGERS Carolina wasn’t expected to be very good. But with the loss of their best player, things figure to get even worse. RB Christian McCaffery is out for at least the next three weeks. The Panthers have started 0-2 with losses to the Raiders and Buccaneers. Their defense has given up 65 points and now the offense, which turned it over four times last week, has been severely weakened. It is very difficult seeing Carolina breaking into the win column without McCaffery. As for the Chargers, they nearly beat the Chiefs last week and that was despite losing starting QB Tyrod Taylor shortly before kickoff. First round draft pick Justin Herbert stepped up and had a promising pro debut, throwing for over 300 yards. But perhaps more impressive was the defense holding Patrick Mahomes to 20 points in regulation. Were it not for TWO 58-yard field goals from KC’s kicker, the Chargers would have won that game. They’ll win this one - pretty easily in fact. With Carolina’s defense being so bad, the Chargers will have their highest point total to date. With McCaffery out, and the Chargers allowing just 18 PPG, the Panthers aren’t going to score much. Add it up and we’ve got a potential blowout on our hands. Going back to last year, Carolina has lost 10 straight games. They’ve covered just 5 of their last 16 road games. Play on LA CHARGERS AAA |
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09-27-20 | Newcastle United v. Tottenham Hotspur UNDER 2.75 | Top | 1-1 | Win | 100 | 114 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER It’s a matchup of 1-0-1 sides in North London Saturday. Tottenham lost their Premier League opener, 1-0 to Everton. But with Everton now sitting at the top of the table, that loss no longer looks bad. The Hotspurs’ form since that loss has been stellar. They are 3-0 across all competitions including a 5-2 win last week over Southampton. Newcastle has gone about their results in a different manner. They started with a 2-0 victory over West Ham on the opening weekend of the campaign. But then the Magpies suffered a much different fate last weekend when they were beaten 3-0 by Brighton & Hove Albion. For those “keeping score,” that’s three clean sheets (either way) in EPL play between these two sides. Both have been kept clean once. Gareth Bale is still a few weeks away from making his Tottenham debut. So don’t go expecting another five goal effort from the Spurs this weekend. Meanwhile, Newcastle just scored 7 goals at Morecambe in Carabao Cup action earlier this week. That’s not going to happen again either. With Newcastle having kept three clean sheets in their last four across all competitions (and being held scoreless themselves in the other), Under is the call here. Play on UNDER AAA |
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09-27-20 | Paulo Costa v. Israel Adesanya OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -130 | 56 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER (2.5 rounds) A fight for the Middleweight Title headlines UFC 253. Champion Israel Adesanya comes in at a perfect 19-0 with 14 of those victories coming by either KO or TKO. But the challenger, Paulo Costa is also undefeated with a 13-0 record and only one of those victories have required the judges to render a decision. But with two fighters this skilled matched up against each other in a championship situation, look for this fight to go longer than expected. Costa’s last four fights have all reached the second round with the most recent being that lone decision win (over Yoel Romero). Adesanya has finished only two of his last seven opponents and is also off a decision victory over Romero. This fight should reach the third round and possibly go even longer. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-26-20 | Angels v. Dodgers -168 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the DODGERS It shouldn’t take much convincing to take the Dodgers at any price. They are baseball’s best team this year and by a pretty overwhelming margin. But at this price and at home, Dodger Blue is a MUST play tonight. They face LA’s “other team,” the Angels, whom they easily defeated Friday night by a score of 9-5. Now Tony Gonsolin and his 1.26 ERA + 0.71 WHIP are set to take the mound Saturday. Gonsolin just doesn’t give up much to opposing hitters. In seven starts, he’s allowed six runs and one wasn’t even earned. At home he’s allowed just two runs total, including the unearned one. He had 10 strikeouts at Coors Field his last time out and now gets to face an Angels lineup that just hasn’t been producing at the rate you’d expect, considering they have Mike Trout. Dylan Bundy goes for the Angels tonight. While he’s arguably been their most reliable starter, that isn’t saying much as he has a 4.91 ERA this month. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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09-26-20 | Nuggets +5 v. Lakers | Top | 107-117 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DEN For a third straight series, Denver finds itself down three games to one. Before this year’s playoffs, no team in history had ever come back from multiple 3-1 series deficits to win a series. Only a handful of teams had ever come back from one 3-1 series deficit. Of course, you could say Denver has the Lakers “right where they want them.” Since losing Game 1, the Nuggets have played LA tough with the two losses coming by a total of eight points (six and two). While they’re 0-3 SU in Game 4’s this postseason, they are obviously perfect in Game 5’s and 6-0 SU overall from Game 5 on. They are also 8-1 ATS when down in the series this postseason and that record could be 9-1 if you got the Nuggets at +6.5 on Thursday. Denver has shot the ball very well in this series, including right around 52% the last two games. In Game 4, the Lakers had tremendous advantages in both second chance points and free throw attempts, but those kinds of disparities are not something they should expect again. Take the points. Play on DENVER AAA |
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09-26-20 | Alabama -27 v. Missouri | Top | 38-19 | Loss | -110 | 97 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ALABAMA Alabama is a far more talented team than Missouri. But you didn’t need us to tell you that. Still, the oddsmakers are being far too conservative with this Week 1 line as the Tide are going to roll in Columbia. Mizzou has a new coach and just 69 players set to dress Saturday. This seems like a major problem when getting ready to face the #1 team in the country. Alabama, having gone a whole TWO YEARS without winning a National Championship, is likely to be very motivated this season. If there’s one coach that can have his team properly focused during a time like this, it is Nick Saban. As per usual in Tuscaloosa, there are multiple players on the roster projected to be first round draft choices by the NFL. The fact that QB Mac Jones got some playing time last year when Tua was hurt is beneficial. That Missouri’s potential starting QB decided to transfer is not! The Tigers have failed to cover in seven straight SEC games and adding ‘Bama to the schedule certainly didn’t help their cause in 2020. Play on ALABAMA AAA |
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09-26-20 | Mississippi State v. LSU -16.5 | Top | 44-34 | Loss | -110 | 93 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LSU With the loss of Joe Burrow and countless others, it seems as if a lot of people are “writing off” LSU coming into the season. We’re here to tell you that’s a mistake. One of the most successful programs in all of CFB, the defending champs should be “just fine” in 2020. The Tigers are rated #6 for a reason. They’ll have a great defense again. While 10 SEC games is tough, Mississippi State is an ideal opponent to open against. The Bulldogs have a new coach and while that coach is Mike Leach, this is a very difficult circumstance to implement a brand new offense. For years, we’ve seen a run-based offense in Starkville. Now they are switching to the “Air Raid.” MSU had ZERO spring practices so the preparation for 2020 is about as limited as it gets. Remember that Arkansas made a similar switch from a run-heavy to pass-heavy offense in 2018. They haven’t won an SEC game since! LSU is 18-2 SU vs. Miss State in the 2000’s and has won 13 of the past 14 here in Baton Rouge. The lone home loss occurred in 2014. Even worse is the fact the Bulldogs have failed to cover their last six times as a road underdog. LSU is on a 16-7 ATS run in SEC games. Play on LSU AAA |
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09-26-20 | Texas v. Texas Tech +18.5 | Top | 63-56 | Win | 100 | 93 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TEX TECH #8 Texas is likely feeling pretty good about itself heading into their Big 12 opener. Two weeks ago, the Longhorns opened the season with a 59-3 thrashing of UTEP where the majority of their starters were only on the field for 30 snaps. Here, they face a Texas Tech squad that had a much more difficult time in its opener. The Red Raiders allowed 600+ yards and had to survive a late 2-point try to beat Houston Baptist, a FCS school, 35-33. Now more than a dozen Red Raiders missed that game due to COVID. But just as Tech thought they were near full strength, their starting RB Thompson was arrested! Still though, they’ve got Alan Bowman, who threw for 400+ yards in the opener. This is a lot of points they’re getting in Lubbock and with the exception of last year (when Bowman didn’t suit up), this in-state rivalry has produced mostly close games. Four of the last five meetings have been decided by a touchdown or less. Furthermore, Texas is just 4-4 straight up in its last eight road games with none of the wins coming by greater than 11 points. Texas Tech is 7-1 ATS following a bye week. Play on TEXAS TECH AAA |
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09-25-20 | Heat +3.5 v. Celtics | Top | 108-121 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI With a win tonight, Miami moves on to the NBA Finals and a likely matchup with former teammate LeBron James and the Lakers. Don’t worry about the fact that the Heat are underdogs tonight. People have been underrating this team ever since the season restarted. They’ve gone 11-2 SU in the playoffs with one of those losses coming in overtime. They are also 11-2 ATS. After falling behind early in each of the first three games, Miami largely controlled Game 4 wire to wire. They did so despite shooting just 42.9% and 10 of 37 from three-point range. They’ll shoot better tonight, even as they are unlikely to get 37 points against from rookie Tyler Herro. That they continue to be the underdog is a little ridiculous and we’ll gladly take the points. Play on MIAMI AAA |
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09-25-20 | Heat v. Celtics OVER 213 | Top | 108-121 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER We also like the Over in this game. Miami has shot poorly in the last two games. Each time they were below 30% on 3PA and 43% overall. They’re going to improve in those departments tonight. Bet on it. As for Boston, they’ve shot 47.6% or better each of the last three games. Gordon Hayward has returned for them. So they too could be capable of exceeding their point total from the last game. Depending on your Game 2 closing O/U line, there hasn’t been an Under in this series. Games 1, 3, 4 and all went Over by double digits. The number is just too low. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-25-20 | Lightning v. Stars +1.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 7* on DAL +1.5 (Puck Line) The Stars have dropped two in a row in the Stanley Cup Finals. Each game saw them fall behind early. In Game 2, it was 3-0 at the end of the 1st period. But they did battle back and make that a one-goal loss. Game 3 was more lopsided. It was 5-1 after two periods and that simply is far too large of a hole to climb out of against a team like the Lightning. Dallas continues to get outshot by a large margin, but they are +3 in 3rd period goal differential for the series. The goaltending situation is something to watch due to the fact Game 5 is tomorrow so Dallas could change things up a bit and go with Ben Bishop tonight. Regardless, they have not suffered three consecutive losses since the season was paused back in March. This will be only the third time since the restart that they’ve been off back to back losses. Everyone is likely writing them off at this point, but we’ll say “no worse than a 1-goal loss here” as the Stars are going to give their best effort tonight. Play DALLAS +1.5 AAA |
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09-25-20 | Middle Tennessee State v. UTSA -6.5 | Top | 35-37 | Loss | -125 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UTSA Middle Tennessee is off to a terrible start to the year, losing 42-0 to Army and 47-14 to Troy. We don’t think you can make this line high enough. UTSA is 2-0, having followed up a 51-48 thriller at Texas State with last week’s 24-10 win over Stephen F Austin. Not only has MTSU turned the ball over seven times, they have an unsettled QB situation and the offense is averaging just 212.5 yards/game. They have found themselves in the red zone just two times in two games! UTSA is averaging more than double the yardage of the Blue Raiders, at nearly 500 yards/game and they’ve gone 11 for 11 on red zone opportunities. This is a “makeshift” game that wasn’t even scheduled as of a week ago. UTSA’s originally scheduled opponent (Memphis) had to “pull out” due to COVID concerns. While that makes this a VERY unusual situation to handicap, we think it clearly favors the team in better form. The idea that Middle Tennessee can correct all of its issues in a short week, against an opponent they weren’t supposed to be facing, seems highly unlikely. The Roadrunners are 6-2 ATS their L8 games. Play on UTSA AAA |
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09-24-20 | A's v. Dodgers UNDER 9 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER With the Dodgers having wrapped up their 8th consecutive NL West pennant the night before, they got “caught with their pants down” early last night against Oakland. They trailed 3-0 after one inning, but were still able to rally and tie the game up 4-4 heading into the ninth. But a 2-run HR by Roman Laureano in the 9th won it for Oakland. We look for less scoring in tonight’s game, the finale between two division champs. Michael Fiers starts for the Athletics. He’s done an excellent job the first time through the batting order as his ERA in the first two innings of a game is just 0.90. He also holds opposing hitters to a .145 average in those first two innings. The A’s have won more times with Fiers on the mound than any other starter this season. Fiers has also gone 4-1 with a 2.00 ERA in five career starts vs. the Dodgers. He’ll be opposed by Walker Buehler, who is coming off the DL. He’s 6-1 with a 1.01 WHIP this season. Two solid pitchers here. Only two of the A’s previous eight games have seen more than nine total runs scored. Play on UNDER AAA |
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09-24-20 | Marlins v. Braves -161 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -161 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ATLANTA Atlanta has already clinched 1st place in the NL East, but that hasn’t stopped them from burying second place Miami in this series. The Braves have won the first three games, by a combined score of 25-9, and now go for the sweep on Thursday. The fact that starter Max Fried left last night’s game with another injury obviously has no bearing here. Rookie Ian Anderson will start tonight’s game. He’s been quite reliable to this point with a 2.36 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. Only Fried has better numbers among the Braves starting rotation. Anderson should expect plenty of run support on Thursday as the Braves have averaged 7.8 runs/game over the L2 weeks. They are 2nd in MLB with 99 home runs hit. Really, it’s a miracle that Miami is even in second place at this juncture. They’ve scored 89 fewer runs than the Braves this year while giving up 28 more. That’s a -42 run differential, which is obviously not indicative of a team competing for a playoff spot. Look for Miami to “fall off” in the next couple days (they’re already starting to) and Thursday starter Lopez can’t help them as he’s 1-4 in his career vs. Atlanta (5.05 ERA in 7 starts). Play on ATLANTA AAA |
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09-24-20 | Dolphins v. Jaguars UNDER 48 | Top | 31-13 | Win | 100 | 52 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Two of the NFL’s three Floridian teams meet in the Week 3 opener Thursday night. Jacksonville was supposedly tanking this year, but at 1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS has been surprisingly competitive thus far. Miami is 0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS, a disappointment to those who thought this team might be competitive in the AFC East this season. Thus far, the Dolphins defense has not played very well. Particularly last week when they surrendered 524 yards on a horrific 8.9 yard per play average against the Bills. Even though it's a short turnaround and they’re playing on the road, we look for Brian Flores’ D to turn it around this week. Jacksonville, despite averaging 28.5 points/game, lacks the kind of weapons that Buffalo and New England (Miami’s Week 1 opponent) have. With Miami, it should be pointed out that they had scored only 24 points through the first seven quarters of the season. The clock is clearly ticking on QB Tannehill as the fans want to see Tua. The Under is 9-4 in Jacksonville’s last 13 home games as well as 7-1 the L8 times they allowed 30 or more points the previous game. The Under is also 6-1 the last 7 times these teams have played. Play on UNDER AAA |
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09-24-20 | UAB v. South Alabama +7 | Top | 42-10 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* on S ALABAMA This will be the second straight time UAB is playing on a Thursday night. Two weeks ago, they went down to Miami. We advised you to fade the Blazers in that spot, noting they’d beaten only ONE FBS team with a winning record all of last season. While there’s no shame in losing to the now-12th ranked team in the country, UAB was pretty much manhandled in the 31-14 defeat in Coral Gables. Their defense was run over to the tune of 337 yards. Now they travel a much shorter distance (in-state) to face a South Alabama side that has definitely turned some heads so far in 2020. The Jaguars season began with a shocking 32-21 upset of Southern Miss on the road. They were double digit underdogs for that one. Next came a close game with Tulane, which they lost 27-24, but still covered as 11.5-point underdogs. That same Tulane team was up 24-0 on Navy this past Saturday before melting down. USA was ahead the entire game until the final 3 minutes and led 24-6 midway through the third quarter. The Jaguars’ passing game, which has employed two QBs, has gone over 300 yards in both games. UAB just lost one of its two QBs (Tyler Johnston III), meaning redshirt freshman Bryson Lucero has to make his first career start on the road. This would be a really big win for South Alabama, who lost in Birmingham last season, 35-3. UAB is just 1-4 ATS its last five road games while USA has covered five straight times as a home dog. Play on SOUTH ALABAMA AAA |
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09-23-20 | Rockies v. Giants -161 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 25 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 9* on SF San Francisco did what it needed to last night and that’s win, 5-2 over the Rockies. The Giants are in the thick of the Wild Card hunt in the National League at 27-27 on the year. Two other NL teams, the Reds and Brewers, are also at .500 and at most only two of these teams can make the playoff field. (There’s also Philadelphia in the East, but they are now two games below .500 after being swept in a doubleheader Tuesday). The Giants need to take advantage of these next two games with the hapless Rockies as they’ll be finishing up the season with four games against tough San Diego. The Rockies now have virtually no shot at making the playoffs, so we expect them to “roll over.” They’ve shut down Nolan Arenado for the remainder of the season. Wednesday night’s starter, Ryan Castellani, has a 7.85 ERA in his last five appearances. While the Giants hadn’t officially announced a starter yet, it’s looking like it will be Webb and he should do fine. Play on SAN FRANCISCO AAA |
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09-23-20 | A's v. Dodgers -159 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -159 | 25 h 57 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LAD The Dodgers clinched their 8th consecutive NL West pennant last night by beating the A’s 7-2. Beating the A’s has to bring back memories of the LA’s last World Series Championship, which was all the way back in 1988 (they beat Oakland in that Fall Classic). Whether it’s the A’s or whomever from the American League, winning the World Series is the goal for the Dodgers in 2020 and they are the favorites having assembled the most dominant ball club in either league. They have the best record in MLB and the best run differential. We’ll back Urias on Wednesday as he has good numbers this year and has given up no more than two runs in three of his four starts this month. The Dodgers have won six of their last seven games with the last four victories all coming by a margin of at least five runs. The A’s are a pretty good team in their own right, but have been outscored 21-4 the last two times they’ve taken the field and Weds starter Manaea has a 5.16 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in his five starts away from home. The Dodgers are too good not to back at the current price, especially since they’re playing at home. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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09-23-20 | San Jose v. Colorado Rapids -149 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 24 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* on COLORADO These sides played to a 1-1 draw the last time they met. But Colorado has to be “licking its chops” heading into this rematch. That’s because San Jose finds itself in a terrible way, winless in eight straight matches, and they just took a 6-1 thrashing at the hands of the Portland Timbers. Colorado should look at tonight’s game as a must-win. The Rapids are 6th in the Western Conference table and coming off a clean sheet victory over the LA Galaxy, 2-0. While San Jose has a decent showing in the MLS is Back Tournament, they’ve been putrid since the regular season returned. The Earthquakes have conceded 23 goals while scoring only seven of their own. They haven’t won any regular season game and recently have taken three terrible losses where they were outscored 18-3 by LAFC, Seattle & Portland. Coach Matias Almeyda admitted there is a huge gap between the Quakes and the top teams in this league. After going on the road for three straight games, Colorado will be glad to be back home and should win convincingly tonight. Play on COLORADO AAA |
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09-23-20 | Celtics v. Heat +3 | Top | 109-112 | Win | 100 | 24 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIA Game 3 of this series marked the first loss in regulation for Miami since the playoffs began. While they’ve had a “nasty habit” of falling behind in games, the Heat still lead this Eastern Conference Finals 2 games to 1 over Boston. We see no way that the Heat don’t improve upon their shooting from the last game as they sank just 12 of 44 three-point attempts and finished with a 38.8 overall FG%. Despite all that, they were still within five points in the final minute. Obviously, having lost just two games since the playoffs started, the Heat have yet to drop two in a row. The last time they suffered back to back losses was right before the playoffs began, in the final two seeding games, neither of which they really put forth much effort in. The extra rest the teams got between Games 3 and 4 is interesting. Miami is 12-3 ATS the L3 seasons when playing with three or more days rest. Boston hasn’t won two straight since opening the last round 2-0 vs. Toronto. We don’t see Miami falling behind by double digits again, so taking the points is the way to go tonight in an obvious bounce back spot. Play on MIAMI AAA |
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09-23-20 | Lightning v. Stars +1.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -193 | 23 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 6* on DAL +1.5 (PUCK LINE) An early 3-0 hole was just too deep for the Stars to climb out of in Game 2. But despite falling behind by three goals in the first period, they did still battle back to make it a one-goal game in the end. That means anyone that had them on the puck line would have cashed. We had the Lightning in Game 2, so we won too. For Game 3, we’re taking Dallas +1.5 (puck line) as this team has proven itself to be remarkably resilient throughout the playoffs. For Game 2, we talked about how the Lightning hadn’t dropped two straight games since coming into the bubble. Dallas has done so just two times and the first instance was the first two games after the restart. Since then, they are 14-7 in all games and six of their last eight games have been decided by one goal. One of the two non-one goal games was their Game 1 victory over the Lightning, which was 4-1. It’s a fairly steep price to lay to get the +1.5 with Dallas here, but definitely worth it as they’ve gone 2-0 when the series is tied this postseason. Play on DALLAS AAA |
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09-22-20 | Astros -170 v. Mariners | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 7* on HOUSTON Just a .500 team this year, the Astros are nowhere close to the heights of the past few seasons. Lucky for them, they are in the AL West and should easily finish in second place, which guarantees them a playoff spot for this unprecedented 2020 season. While the offseason was tumultuous for every club, Houston’s was even more so as they had to deal with the fall out of the cheating scandal. They’ll just be happy to get into the postseason this year, all things considered. Tuesday should find them in their “happy place” as they face Seattle. Despite losing to the Mariners on Monday, the Astros have gone 24-3 in this division rivalry since the start of last season. They face a pitcher in LJay Newsome that is 0-3 on the year with a 7.56 ERA and 1.68 WHIP. Framber Valdez goes for the Astros. He allowed only one run in his last start and had 11 strikeouts. Some things to know about last night’s game: it was 0-0 heading into the bottom of the 7th and Seattle didn’t get a hit until the 6th. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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09-22-20 | Lakers v. Nuggets UNDER 214 | Top | 106-114 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER So we hopped on the Over in Game 1 of this series. That was our top NBA play of the year and it won easily, cashing by 28 points as the Lakers rolled to a 126-114 victory. Game 2 was a lot tighter and lower-scoring. Denver, who we had, was able to stay within the number this time in a 105-103 loss. It took an Anthony Davis 3-pointer at the buzzer for the Lakers to pull out the win there. The Nuggets did trail most of the way and by as many as 16 at one juncture, which is nothing new for them. Though now 7-1 ATS when trailing in a series this postseason, we worry about Denver’s psyche heading into Game 3. They shot the ball better than the Lakers did in Game 2 and still lost. It’s also definitely notable how the total tonight is higher than it was for either Game 1 or 2. The Under is 7-1-2 in Denver’s past 10 games, a complete departure from how the first 14 games went. The Lakers have allowed 103 points or fewer in four of their last five games. Denver has allowed 105 points or less in five of their last six. Play on UNDER. AAA |
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09-22-20 | Phillies -185 v. Nationals | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -185 | 7 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 6* on PHILLY The Phillies lost here last night by a score of 5-1. That’s a result they really can’t afford right now as they are one of many teams vying for the last remaining spots in the National League Playoffs. Adding insult to injury, Philadelphia was a sizable favorite for last night’s game here in D.C. They’re playing a doubleheader on Tuesday and find themselves as an even larger favorite for Game 1. That’s because they have Aaron Nola starting. Nola, despite a 5-5 TSR, has been the Phillies best starter in 2020. He’s posted 2.92 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 10 starts. The last one was a bit shaky (walked 5 batters), but you have to remember that Nola had a combined 20 strikeouts his previous two starts and he’s 2-0 against the Nationals this year, having allowed just two runs on seven hits in 15 innings of work. Nola has given up 1 run or less in half his starts. With Nola on the mound, Philly has a huge edge in starting pitching this afternoon. Washington will go with Voth, who is winless over his nine starts with a 7.17 ERA and 1.67 WHIP. The Phillies had been 6-0 vs. the Nationals this season prior to the loss yesterday. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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09-21-20 | Saints v. Raiders OVER 48.5 | Top | 24-34 | Win | 100 | 22 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER We’ve got two teams on Monday Night Football that scored 34 points last week. Both teams also gave up their fair share (of points) last week, so it was 2 for 2 when it comes to Overs. With New Orleans, both the quarterback and coach seemed dissatisfied with their performance. Brees and Payton are likely to be much more satisfied with themselves after facing this terrible Raiders defense this week. Last week Las Vegas gave up almost 400 yards to a Carolina team with a 1st year head coach and new starting quarterback. That’s really nothing new for the Raiders. Over the last three seasons, they have ranked second to last in points allowed and dead last in yards per play allowed. They allowed 6.1 yards per play last week vs. Carolina. Even though they won’t have WR Thomas, look for the Saints to move the ball up and down the field in this game. Las Vegas should put up a decent number too, in their brand new stadium. The Over is 5-2 in the Saints last seven Monday night games. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-21-20 | Stars v. Lightning -144 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 22 h 49 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TAMPA BAY They had a 36-20 edge in shots on goal, but the Lightning still lost 4-1 in Game 1. We believe their chances of bouncing back in Game 2 are quite high. For starters, Tampa Bay has not lost two straight games since the restart. When off a loss, they have scored at least three times in every try but one. That one instance was the close out game against the Islanders. Consider that Dallas has won 4 of its last 5 games despite averaging only 22.8 shots per game during that time. Having that high of a shooting percentage can’t continue. Similarly, goalie Anton Khudobin is probably due to start letting some goals in. He made 35 saves in Game 1. He’s now stopped 139 of the last 145 shots he’s faced, a save percentage of .959! That can’t continue either. Khudobin wasn’t even the Stars starter between the pipes when the playoffs began! The key will be for the Lightning to strike (score) first. TB is 0-3 against Dallas this season, but 46-17 their L63 games following a loss by 3+ goals. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA |
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09-21-20 | Marlins v. Braves -165 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 21 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ATLANTA The last time the Marlins and Braves met, Atlanta delivered a historic 29-9 win. That was the most runs scored in a game in franchise history. They hit seven home runs and had an 11-run inning. It wasn’t quite that easy on Sunday, but the Braves are off a 7-0 win over the Mets. They’ve been scoring a lot of runs lately as we had them on Friday when they beat the Mets 15-2. All this run scoring has opened up a three-game advantage over the Marlins, who have been decidedly mediocre despite being a second place team. Putting Miami at a pretty severe disadvantage Monday is the fact they’ve played two doubleheaders in the last three days. They split both. One was Sunday and the loss came by a score of 15-0. They scored just two runs in 14 innings of baseball yesterday. Trevor Rogers starts tonight for Miami. He has a 6.00 ERA in six prior outings. Atlanta goes with Tomlin, whose five previous starts have all been against either Washington or Philadelphia. He’ll be happy to see a different lineup today, one that has been shutout three times in its last eight games. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
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09-20-20 | Patriots v. Seahawks -4 | Top | 30-35 | Win | 100 | 147 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SEA Seattle was one of the more impressive teams in Week 1. They beat Atlanta 38-25 and while the defense gave up plenty of yards, that hardly mattered with Russell Wilson playing as well as he did. Wilson threw 4 TD passes and completed 31 of his 35 attempts. The Seahawks won 11 games last year and brought back most of the key pieces. There’s no reason to believe they won’t have another successful season. New England is also accustomed to successful seasons, having had 20 years worth under Bill Belichick. Only now Tom Brady isn’t the QB. Cam Newton is. Newton had a solid start to his Patriots career, giving the offense a rushing dynamic it never had previously, but that was against Miami. Now they face a much stronger opponent and the Seahawks coaching staff still resents the Super Bowl loss from a few years back. This will snap the Patriots’ streak of 64 consecutive regular season games being favored. That makes a lot of sense given Seattle’s continuity plus it is very hard to win here at night. New England’s defense is set to take a hit this year. They lived off turnovers in 2019. While they forced three Miami TO’s last week, Seattle didn’t turn it over once in its opening game. The Patriots have failed to cover five straight times off a win. Play on SEATTLE AAA |
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09-20-20 | Nuggets +7.5 v. Lakers | Top | 103-105 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DENVER Given how their last two series have gone, maybe the Nuggets have the Lakers “right where they want them.” No strangers to trailing in these playoffs, Denver got blown out in Game 1 of the WCF, losing 126-114. Of course, they were blown out even worse by the Clippers in Game 1 of the last round (120-97) and still came back to win that series in seven games. They are the first team in league history to win two series in the same postseason in which they trailed 3-1. Not only did Denver bounce back from a Game 1 blowout to win the Clippers series, they took Game 2 outright, 110-101. We’ll definitely grab the points here as the Nuggets are now 6-1 ATS when trailing in the series this postseason. Since falling behind Utah 3 games to 1 in the first round, they’ve covered six straight in the role. The Lakers shot very well from 3-point land in Game 1 (42.3%), which is much higher than their season average. They can’t count on that happening again. Play on DENVER AAA |
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09-20-20 | Cardinals -159 v. Pirates | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 22 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ST LOUIS Pittsburgh is very bad and they should be putting up very little resistance this final week of the regular season. While it’s true that the Pirates did win the series opener with the Cardinals on Thursday, they’ve since dropped three in row including a doubleheader on Friday and a 5-4 game yesterday. That leaves the Bucs at 15-37 on the season and their -87 run differential is baseball’s worst. (So is the won-loss record). St. Louis is trying to reserve a spot in the playoffs. Finishing second in the NL Central guarantees them a spot and that’s where they are now after going 3-0 the L2 days. We’ll look past Jack Flaherty’s recent poor numbers here given the opponent. He’s 5-1 vs Pittsburgh with a 1.94 ERA and 47 strikeouts in his career. The Cards are 19-9 vs. Pittsburgh since the start of last season. Pirates starter Musgrove is winless in six tries and has a 5.74 ERA. The team has scored five or less runs in all six of Musgrove’s starts. Musgrove is 1-7 with a 6.75 ERA in eight starts against the Cardinals. Play on ST LOUIS AAA |
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09-20-20 | Burnley v. Leicester -151 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 118 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* on Leicester While ending up only fifth last season may have been disappointing in retrospect (poor finish), Leicester City had to be happy with the way they opened the 2020-21 campaign. The Foxes recorded an easy 3-0 victory over West Brom last week and now look to make it back to back EPL wins for the first time since New Year’s Day. History is on their side as they’ve lost a home opener just once in the last 13 seasons. Their opponent, Burnley, have yet to hit the Premier League pitch as last week’s game vs. Man U got postponed. The Clarets had a much different finish than Leicester last season. They were beaten only twice in the last 16 games, which was quite an achievement and allowed them to finish mid-table. But they’ll come into their opener down some key players and they haven’t won here since 1968! While the Premier League opener was postponed, Burnley did just play Thursday vs. Sheffield United in EFL Cup action (where they progressed via penalty shootout). We think that’s a disadvantage. Play on LEICESTER CITY AAA |
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09-20-20 | 49ers -6.5 v. Jets | Top | 31-13 | Win | 100 | 141 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SF Yes, the 49ers have some injury concerns heading into Week 2. But we don’t think they’ll have much difficulty beating the hapless Jets on Sunday. You’ve got two teams that lost last week here. San Francisco’s loss was a surprise as they were 7-point favorites against Arizona. It really wasn’t a surprise to see the Jets go down in Buffalo though. Look past the 27-17 final in that one as the Jets were down 21-0 early in the second quarter and 27-10 before a late 86-yard drive was capped by a meaningless touchdown. Prior to that drive, the Jets had been outgained 404-168. QB Sam Darnold didn’t look very good at all and he lost RB Le’Veon Bell to injury. Coming off a loss, expect last year’s NFC Champs to take advantage. In the last 10 years, playoff teams that lost their season opener have bounced back to go 18-9 ATS in Week 2. The 49ers are 13-7 ATS L20 as road favorites. Furthermore, the old notion of West Coast teams struggling in 1 PM ET kicks appears to be a thing of the past. West Coast teams have won 13 of their last 16 such games while going 11-4-1 ATS. The Jets may be the worst team in the AFC. Lay the points. Play on SAN FRANCISCO AAA |
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09-20-20 | Giants +5.5 v. Bears | Top | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 51 h 49 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NY GIANTS The Giants lost on Monday Night Football, but actually played the Steelers pretty tough. Had it not been for a 19-play drive ending in a Daniel Jones interception early in the third quarter, the G-men would have likely covered the spread. As for Chicago, well, they pulled a rabbit out of the hat with a 27-23 comeback in Detroit. After looking terrible for three quarters, QB Mitchell Trubisky came alive with three 4th quarter TD passes. If you’re wondering how such a transformation could take place, look no further than the fact the Lions were down their three top cornerbacks. The Bears defense, usually reliable, gave up 426 yards. Really, it was a game that the Bears had no business winning. Adrian Peterson averaged 6.6 yards per carry against them, which is shocking, so look for Giants RB Saquon Barkley to bounce back from his poor effort against the Steelers. Chicago laying so many points is definitely an “eye-opener” as they are just 1-6 ATS the last 7 times as a favorite including 0-3 their L3. The Giants are 10-3 ATS as a road underdog the L3 seasons. Play on NY GIANTS AAA |
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09-20-20 | Lions v. Packers -6 | Top | 21-42 | Win | 100 | 51 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 9* on GREEN BAY Aaron Rodgers has to be licking his chops here. The Lions are down three defensive starters including both cornerbacks. It was those injuries at CB that allowed for Chicago to stun them last week with a trio of fourth quarter touchdowns. Injuries aren’t limited to the defense either. The Lions will be without WR Kenny Golladay and LG Joe Dahl as well. This is a team that just blew a 17-point 4th quarter lead, has lost 10 straight going back to last season and has multiple key injuries on both sides of the ball. Now they face one of the best QBs in the league, on the road. The Packers put up 43 points and 500+ yards at Minnesota last week. Since the beginning of last season, Detroit is 1-10 ATS off a loss. They are 0-5 ATS the last four games, four of which they were underdogs in. Somehow the Lions have covered six straight times against the Pack, but that streak comes to an end Sunday as Matt Patricia’s team is in no position to compete right now. Play on GREEN BAY AAA |
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09-19-20 | Randa Markos v. Mackenzie Dern -159 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 55 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DERN Mackenzie Dern is the favorite here and for good reason. The 15th ranked contender in the Women’s Strawweight division is eight years younger and carries an 8-1 record. Her not ranked opponent, Rando Markos, is just 10-8-1 in her pro career. Dern began her career with seven consecutive victories, four of them coming via submission. Then she ran into Amanda Ribas last October and was beaten for the 1st time - via decision. But back in May, Dern returned to her submission ways using a kneebar to stop Hannah Cifers in the 1st round. Ironically, it is now Markos finding herself coming off a loss to Ribas. She lost to her back in March on a unanimous decision. One thing that sticks about Markos is how few finishes she has in her pro career. The number is just four and only one of those has been since 2014. Markos will look to take this fight to the ground, but that’s easier said than done against the superior striker Dern. Play on Mackenzie Dern AAA |
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09-19-20 | Celtics v. Heat OVER 206 | Top | 117-106 | Win | 100 | 21 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Game 1 of this series went to overtime, so it ended up being an easy Over as the Heat won 117-114. You should note the Over was a winner by the end of regulation. Game 2, a 106-101 Heat victory, just stayed Under despite the losing side shooting 50% from the field. Boston also had a 13-point lead at halftime in Game 2. Blowing all of that in one quarter was a real shocker as Miami now is 10-1 SU/ATS in the playoffs, the only loss coming in overtime. The Heat’s trademark three-point shooting, which has been so big for them during this postseason run, was not that good in Game 2. They made only 32.6% from behind the arc. That they still won should frighten Celtics fans a bit. Down 0-2, you’ve got to figure Boston comes out strong here as they seek to avoid their first three-game losing streak in the bubble. Another loss would effectively end this series. But look for Miami’s three-point shooting, which is at 38.0% for the playoffs, to be better than it was in Game 2. The Over is 26-12 for the Heat off their previous 38 SU wins. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-19-20 | Rays -168 v. Orioles | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 20 h 16 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TB After sweeping a doubleheader on Thursday, the Rays won again Friday, this time 2-1. They shouldn’t have much of a problem continuing to win this weekend at Camden Yards. We like them on Saturday as they look to strengthen their grip on the AL East. Baltimore is heading in reverse right now. They’ve lost 10 of 12. Yesterday marked the 7th time that the Orioles were held to 1 run or less in that 2-10 stretch, which has effectively ended their season. A big reason why the Rays are winning this division is their 26-12 record against the other four teams. That includes five straight wins over Baltimore. Charlie Morton has yet to win for TB since returning from injury, but he’s only allowed six runs in 11 ⅔ innings. He holds a 3.38 ERA in six career starts vs. Baltimore. Orioles starter Lopez has a 2-2 team start record this year after a leading a shocking 14-1 win over Atlanta earlier in the week. But that was by far his best of the four starts and we see him regressing on Saturday. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA |
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09-19-20 | Stars v. Lightning -147 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -147 | 20 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TB One of these teams being here is not a surprise. That would be Tampa Bay, who set numerous regular season records last season before infamously flaming out vs. Columbus in the first round of the playoffs. This season, the Lightning weren’t nearly as dominant (didn’t even finish first in the division), but have enjoyed a far more successful playoff run and that’s really all that matters. So far TB has lost only four games in the postseason, none of them consecutively, and they enter this Stanley Cup Finals as decided favorites over the Dallas Stars. The Stars being here is a surprise. They went through the top two teams in the Western Conference - Colorado and Vegas - and have been underdogs on the money line in each of their L12 games! They’ve definitely been “living dangerously” though with the last five wins all coming by a goal apiece. Several of those have required improbable comebacks, something we also saw in the 1st round series with Calgary as well as the round robin. While Dallas did win the two regular season meetings (Both in OT), the Lightning are pretty clearly the better team here. TB is 44-7 the L51 times it’s been off a game in which it scored 2 goals or less. They won 2-1 on Thursday in the close-out game vs. the Islanders. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA |
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09-19-20 | Central Florida -7 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 49-21 | Win | 100 | 73 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UCF UCF has won a total of 35 games the previous three seasons and lost only four. The Golden Knights enter 2020 ranked #14 and are probably the best “Group of Five” team in the country. They open with Georgia Tech, who upset Florida State last week. Picked to finish last in the ACC, the Yellow Jackets were 13-point underdogs in Tallahassee. So it was a big surprise to start their season. It was a weird game with a 1 hr 45 min weather delay, plus the Seminoles turned the ball over three times. UCF, a more veteran team that has put up 30+ points in every game but one the L3 years, will not be as giving. The Knights are also eager to earn their first ever win in Atlanta. The program is 0-3 all-time vs. Ga Tech, but the last meeting was in 2000. The UCF program is a lot different (better!) now and ready to make a statement vs. a P5 foe. The Yellow Jackets are just 1-8 ATS their L9 home games and 0-5 ATS off their L5 straight up victories. Play on UCF AAA |
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09-19-20 | Navy +7 v. Tulane | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 69 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NAVY Navy had an absolutely disastrous showing in their season opener. They lost 55-3 to BYU! It was the worst loss in 13 years under Ken Niumatalolo and the head coach took all the blame. "Boy, that game was 1000 percent my fault," Niumatalolo said. "Obviously, we weren't prepared. One team was playing football. There's nobody to blame but myself. I erred on the side of trying to keep our guys safe (from COVID). I'd say it's the worst Navy football game we ever played." With two weeks to prepare, expect a MUCH better effort from the Midshipmen against Tulane. Against BYU, Navy ran for only 149 yards -- the 2nd lowest total ever for Niumatalolo in Annapolis and 211.5 yards below last year’s nation-leading average. Tulane played last week and only won by three (27-24) at South Alabama after initially trailing 24-6 in the third quarter. Now they turn around to face a complicated offense that’s going to produce a lot more than it did in the opener. The Green Wave were outgained last week in Mobile. They are breaking in a new QB and this is a lot of points to lay for a team whose only win over Navy in the L5 years came by a single points. The Midshipmen are 10-1-1 ATS following a loss by 20 or more points. Play on NAVY AAA |
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09-18-20 | Nuggets v. Lakers OVER 211 | Top | 114-126 | Win | 100 | 33 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER Denver wasn’t the opponent the Lakers expected to face here. But the Nuggets “ruined” what could have been an all-LA Western Conference Finals by stunning the Clippers in Game 7 Tuesday, 104-89. That was a stunning result even for us, and we had the Nuggets plus the points. It marked the second consecutive series where Denver rallied back from a 3-1 deficit. In the entire history of the NBA Playoffs, no team before them had ever rallied back from multiple 3-1 series deficits in the same postseason. The Under was 5-0-2 in the Clippers-Nuggets series, marking a huge departure from Denver’s previous 15 games where the Over had gone 13-2. We like Game 1 of the WCF to revert back to Denver’s “old ways,” as this number is just too low. The prior three Lakers-Nuggets matchups, the last of which took place here in the bubble, all went Over. On August 10th, the Nuggets shot 58.4% while the Lakers shot 54.3% in a 124-121 LA victory. Denver shot 56.5 from behind the arc! Though they somehow held the Clippers under 100 points in three of the last four games, we feel that had more to do with poor shooting than Denver’s defense. The Lakers have shot better than 50% in six of their last eight games. In the playoffs, Lakers games have averaged 219.3 points/game. Denver games have averaged 215.1 and that number grows when factoring in the entire time spent in the bubble. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-18-20 | Braves -170 v. Mets | Top | 15-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ATLANTA After taking 2 of 3 from the Phillies, the Mets are 1.5 games back of the last playoff spot in the NL. The task of catching up gets significantly harder this weekend with the Braves coming to town. First place Atlanta is one of the best teams in the Senior Circuit and will be starting Max Fried on Friday. Fried has gone 6-0 in his nine starts. The team is 8-1. Fried has a 1.98 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. While the Braves just had a surprisingly disappointing series at Camden Yards, losing 2 of 3, their offense had been red hot prior to that and should have its way tonight with Mets starter Steven Matz. David Peterson was originally going to start here for the Mets, but an overnight change was made to Matz and we like it. Matz is 0-4 this year with a 9.00 ERA. The team has lost all five of his starts. In his last three turns, Matz has given up 19 runs in 11 ⅔ innings. The Mets bullpen has been working overtime of late, which means they may not be of much help either. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
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09-17-20 | Bengals +6 v. Browns | Top | 30-35 | Win | 100 | 77 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CINCY For the 16th consecutive season, Cleveland is winless entering Week 2. Now there’s no shame in losing Baltimore as the Browns did last week. But opening your season with a 38-6 loss is never good. QB Mayfield is on his third head coach in as many seasons and didn’t look any better, completing just 21 of 39 passes for 189 yards. He threw an INT on the very first drive. The offseason being what it was, teams with new head coaches and lots of personnel turnover are at a disadvantage. Cleveland fits that bill. Now after facing perhaps the best team in the league last week, the Browns now get to face the team that had the worst record in the league last year. But Cincinnati was at least competitive in its Week 1 loss to the Chargers. In fact, they had a chance to win at the end. Joe Burrow, the league’s top draft choice, threw two costly interceptions for the Bengals. Yet they still led most of the game. Cincy beat Cleveland in Week 17 last year, with a different QB obviously. With Burrow and a healthy AJ Green, the Bengals are going to be a much tougher “out” in 2020. They are 8-3 ATS L11 times as a road underdog. Cleveland is untrustworthy in the role of favorite. They lost outright five times as chalk last year including to the Bengals. Take the points Thursday night. Play on CINCINNATI AAA |
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09-17-20 | Lightning v. Islanders UNDER 5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 115 | 21 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Tampa Bay missed out on its first try to finish the Islanders, so here goes “round two.” It was a 2-1 win for the Islanders in Game 5, the kind of final score we’ve become much more accustomed to seeing from them this postseason. After all, NY came into the series having given up the fewest number of goals per game (1.94) the first two rounds. In the two games where they have faced elimination in the playoffs, the Islanders have given up a total of one goal. Remember they shut out the Flyers 4-0 in Game 7 of the semifinal round. The bad news though is they only got off 24 shots Tuesday in a game that went to two overtimes. That probably won’t cut it again. In four of the five games in this series, the Islanders have been held to two goals or fewer. They are 48-21-5 the L74 games as an underdog. The Lightning are 11-5-3 Under the L18 games overall. You can’t discount the injury to Brayden Point. TB’s two lowest scoring games of the series have come with him out of the lineup. His status is questionable for Game 6. Play on UNDER AAA |
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09-16-20 | Twins v. White Sox -140 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -140 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the WHITE SOX This shaped up to be a very important series in the AL Central and so far the White Sox have stepped up to answer the challenge. They’ve beaten Minnesota each of the last two nights, 3-1 and 6-2. They now lead the Twins by three games. We like the division leaders to make it three in a row tonight. They’ve got arguably their top pitcher going in Lucas Giolito. The team is 7-3 so far when he starts including 5-0 the last 5 times. One of those was a no-hitter. Giolito hasn’t given up more than 3 runs in any of his last 5 starts and has a 1.03 WHIP for the year. The White Sox are the hottest team in baseball right now as they have won six straight. They are 22-5 their last 27 games and 14-1 L15 at home. They have arguably the best offense in the whole American League. Minnesota has a losing road record and it’s tough to like their chances with Odorizzi starting as he has a 8.10 ERA and 1.60 WHIP his previous three turns and this will be his first time starting since August 21st. A tough spot to return. Play on WHITE SOX AAA |
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09-16-20 | Braves -164 v. Orioles | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -164 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ATLANTA Atlanta is still comfortably ahead in the NL East and thus looking like a pretty safe bet to make the postseason. But they suffered an embarrassing 14-1 defeat Monday at the hands of Baltimore. Fortunately, that looks like it was a total anomaly as last night the Braves got back on track with a 4-1 win at Camden Yards. The Orioles have scored 1 run or less in five of the last six games, so don’t go getting fooled by that 14 run effort two days ago. As for the Braves offense, it really got a “shot in the arm” when manager Brian Snitker reshuffled the batting order by stacking it at the top. But all eyes will be on the pitching mound tonight as Cole Hamels makes his 2020 season debut. The starting rotation has been Atlanta’s weakness the last two weeks due to a multitude of injuries. Hamels should do fine against a struggling Baltimore lineup. As for Orioles starter Keegan Akin, he’s facing a lineup that has scored 70 runs its last 10 games. The Braves are 7-2 this season as road favorites of -125 to -175 and 33-12 L45 in that role. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
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09-16-20 | Mets -130 v. Phillies | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NY METS This is a critically important game for the Mets season. While one of only seven National League teams to have scored more runs than they’ve allowed (they share the same +1 run diff as the Phillies), New York is six games below .500 and 2.5 gms out of the playoffs after losing 4-1 to the Phillies last night. But they’ve got the proverbial “ace in the hole” working Wednesday in Jacob deGrom, whose last two starts have produced a 14-1 win and 18-1 win. That’s a combined 32-2 score and the 14-1 win came against Philly! For the year, deGrom has a 1.67 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. The Mets are 7-2 in his 9 starts. deGrom has yet to allow more than two earned runs in any start. The Mets are 0-3 since deGrom last started a game and just 14-24 in all non-deGrom starts. But this is a real difference maker as deGrom is also 8-1 with a 2.16 ERA in 16 career starts for the Phillies. The home team’s lineup is severely depleted right now with Rhys Hoskins, Jay Bruce and J.T. Realmuto all M.I.A. The remainder of the Phillies lineup just isn’t going to get it done. The Mets had their chances last night at the plate (11 hits), but were 0 for 6 when runners were in scoring position. Look for that to turn around tonight and deGrom takes care of the rest. Play on NY METS AAA |
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09-15-20 | Nuggets +7.5 v. Clippers | Top | 104-89 | Win | 100 | 24 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* on DENVER Denver has consistently been underpriced in this series, so why should we stop now? We had the Nuggets in their upsets in Games 2 & 6 as well as their ATS win in Game 3. This is the consecutive series where they’ve rallied from a 3-1 deficit. We all remember what happened against Utah in Game 7. They are now 6-1 ATS when trailing in a series this postseason. Each of the last two games have seen them stage shocking comebacks from double digit deficits. While one could take this as a sign of the Clippers’ superiority and “falling asleep at the wheel,” we see it as “blown opportunities.” Los Angeles has just one double digit win in the series; it came in Game 1 when they had an edge in rest over the Nuggets. Since rest time has been equal, the Nuggets are 4-1 ATS. They outscored the Clippers 64-35 in the second half of Game 6. A troubling sign for LA is that they’ve shot better than 42% from the floor just once in the past five games. There is a lot of pressure on the Clippers in this Game 7. Denver is playing with “house money.” Even if they can’t make history and be the first team to win consecutive series in which they were down 3 games to 1, the Nuggets will keep this one close. Play on DENVER AAA |
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09-15-20 | A's v. Rockies UNDER 12 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The Under is not something you normally think about taking at Coors Field. But with the Rockies’ recent offensive struggles and the A’s being in a bit of bind, Under in the route we’re going in tonight’s series opener. Colorado has topped five runs only one time in its last six games. That was here at home, but so were the last two games which saw them score just five runs total. Tonight they are facing a red hot pitcher in Sean Manaea, who’s won his last four starts while posting a 1.61 ERA. Manaea has issued only one walk during that time and has allowed only six runs in 22 ⅓ (two runs were unearned). But the A’s are likely going to have to ride Manaea in this one after playing 10 games in 7 days including a doubleheader vs. Seattle yesterday. Injuries have also hit the everyday lineup hard as 3B Chapman’s season is over and OF Piscotty sprained his knee yesterday. The Under is 22-5-1 in the A’s last 28 road games with a total of 11.0 or higher. Rockies starter Senzatela actually has pretty good numbers here at home and should keep Oakland in check. Play on UNDER AAA |
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09-15-20 | Islanders +1.5 v. Lightning | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the ISLANDERS +1.5 The Islanders are just trying to stay alive here, so we’ll take them +1.5 on the puck line. Obviously, this Eastern Conference Final did not get off to a good start for the Isles. They lost Game 1 by a score of 8-2. But then they only lost by a goal in Game 2 (2-1) and won Game 3, 5-3. But Game 4 was another disappointment as they lost 4-1. For 15 whole seconds NY did have the lead, but Tampa Bay quickly tied it and then took the lead for good 12 seconds later. So the game really changed in less than 30 seconds. What you have to remember is that the Islanders had been #1 in the playoffs in goals allowed (1.94 per game) coming into this series. Tampa Bay has proven rather difficult to slow down, but we’re counting on the Islanders busting out their old defensive “tricks” here in Game 5. They’ve only faced elimination one time this postseason and it was Game 7 against the Flyers, whom they shutout and held to just 16 shots. Lightning star Brayden Point is questionable here after taking a shot against the boards in the last game. He missed the second half of the third period. Islanders are 5-2 after scoring 2 goals or less the previous game. Play on ISLANDERS +1.5 AAA |
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09-15-20 | Heat +1.5 v. Celtics | Top | 117-114 | Win | 100 | 33 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI After knocking off the top two seeds in the East, Miami and Boston meet in the Conference Finals. Miami ousted top seeded Milwaukee in five games. Even with Giannis Antetokounmpo hampered, that was still a really impressive effort from the Heat, who are now 8-1 SU and ATS this postseason. Boston needed seven games to eliminate Toronto, but was pretty clearly the better team in that series. Still, the extra games played is definitely a disadvantage for a thin lineup that’s still without Gordon Hayward. Bam Adebayo is the name to watch for the Heat as he led the way with 21 points and 12 rebounds in a 112-106 win when these teams faced off on August 4th. Boston defended the interior well against Toronto, particularly Daniel Theiss, but they clearly had issues against Adebayo last month. The Celtics shot just 43.5% in that game and were 10 of 33 from three-point range. Miami’s 3-point shooting has been a major weapon so far in the playoffs as they are at 38%, which is the highest percentage among the four likely conference finalists. Boston is just 13th in three-point shooting among the 16 playoff teams. Remember that the Heat have not been beaten in regulation since the playoffs began. Boston did not top 103 points in regulation in five of its last six games vs. Toronto. Play on MIAMI AAA |
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09-15-20 | Nationals v. Rays -164 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TAMPA BAY Though they continue to hold serve in the AL East, Tampa Bay has lost four of six - all to last place teams. They could only manage a split of a four-game set with the sorry Red Sox over the weekend and before that lost both games to the Nationals. Tuesday sees them going for revenge against last year’s World Series champs. Obviously, the vibe in the Nation’s Capital right now is much different than it was at this time last year. The Nationals got off to a slow start and never recovered, meaning they won’t even get a chance to defend last year’s WS crown. Their weekend consisted of losing three of four to the Braves. Anibal Sanchez will be on the mound tonight and the Nats have lost his last four road starts. Despite a nice effort last week against the Rays, he still has a 6.34 ERA and 1.72 WHIP overall. Tampa Bay goes the “opener” route on Tuesday with John Curtiss. While it’ll be just his 2nd time “opening,” Curtiss has made 13 total appearances this year including one scoreless inning last week vs. the Nationals, who are 1-6 their L7 games at Tropicana Field. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA |
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09-14-20 | Titans v. Broncos OVER 40.5 | Top | 16-14 | Loss | -115 | 35 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Lots of line movement here as Tennessee has been bet to the role of favorite after opening as a 2-point dog. The total, which is what we’re playing, has also been on the move. It’s down to pretty low 40.5 as of press time, which would be the second lowest O/U on the board for NFL Week 1 (only Jets-Bills lower). Injuries have also become a factor in handicapping this nightcap of the Monday Night Football doubleheader. The Titans are going to be without three defensive starters: Adoree Jackson, Vic Beasley and Derrick Roberson. The Broncos have one major absence on the defensive side of the ball themselves, that being Von Miller, who has suffered a serious ankle injury. All those missing defensive players have us taking the Over here. Denver’s offense is going to be a lot better this year. The front office went out and made sure to surround QB Drew Lock with plenty of skill position talent. Let’s not forget Tennessee made the AFC Title Game in January on the back of RB Derrick Henry, who was the NFL’s rushing leader. They scored 20 or more points in their final 10 games last year. The Over is 4-0 the Titans L4 MNF appearances and 6-1 the L7 times they have been a favorite. The Over is also 8-2 Denver’s L10 season openers. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-14-20 | Stars v. Golden Knights -168 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -168 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* on VEGAS Vegas has really put itself behind the 8-ball, now needing to win three straight in order to make the Stanley Cup Finals. They have generally outplayed the Stars in this Western Conference Finals. However, they can’t seem to score when necessary. They’ve outshot Dallas for the series, including 73-43 the L2 games! But Stars goalie Anton Khudobin has picked the right time to play the best hockey of his career, posting a .944 save percentage for the series. Dallas is clearly playing “above its head” this postseason. It’s not just Khudobin either. The team has more 5+ goal games in the bubble than they did the entire regular season! The Golden Knights have done a solid job when it comes to limiting goals; they’ve given up just six in the four games. Now it’s time for Khudobin to regress, assuming Vegas can continue to pepper him with shots. They average 36.2 shots/game in the playoffs while allowing only 24.2. Dallas has been outshot and outscored in the postseason! This is just the 2nd time Vegas has lost two in a row since the restart. The 1st saw them bounce back to post a shutout in Game 7 vs. Vancouver when the season was on the line. Play on VEGAS AAA |
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09-14-20 | Braves -168 v. Orioles | Top | 1-14 | Loss | -168 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ATLANTA Atlanta continues to pace the NL East, a division which they’ve led most of the way. They won yesterday, for the first time as a road underdog of +125 to +175 (0-7 previously), beating Max Scherzer and Washington 8-4. That was the Braves’ 4th win in 5 games, a stretch which began with a 29-9 victory over Miami. Tonight they’re in Baltimore to face an Orioles team that had a BAD weekend. The O’s got swept in New York, pretty much ending any hope that they could make a Cinderella run to the postseason. They scored a grand total of three runs in the four-game series, so Atlanta’s Touki Toussant has to like his chances in tonight’s start. Touissant should aim to hold Baltimore to three runs or fewer as the Orioles are 0-16 this year when that happens. Looking at Atlanta’s offense, the 4-1 stretch coincides with manager Brian Snitker deciding to “load up” the top of his batting order with Acuna Jr, Freeman & Ozuna in the top three spots. The Braves have scored 7 or more runs four times since that change and 53 runs total. Orioles starter Jorge Lopez has made only three starts in 2020 and none have been quality. He gave up five runs in the last one. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
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09-14-20 | Chelsea -154 v. Brighton & Hove Albion | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 28 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CHELSEA Chelsea went on a spending spree during the offseason, in the hopes they can overtake Liverpool and Man City at the top of the Premier League table. Despite all the new talent, the Blues still have aways to go after last season’s fourth place finish with a +15 goal differential. But they should open with an easy win here against Brighton, a side whose mid-table finish last campaign pretty much represents their “ceiling.” While not winning the FA Cup may have been a disappointment for Chelsea, reaching the final showed enough positives that we’re confident they get the job done in the 2020-21 opener. In our opinion, Brighton is getting a BIT too much respect here. Maybe that’s due to playing Chelsea to a 1-1 draw in preseason or the fact Christian Pulisic is likely absent from the pitch Monday. But having brought in so many world-class players, anything less than a win here for Chelsea will be viewed as a massive failure. An early-season cheap price is something that should be taken advantage of, without question. Play on CHELSEA AAA |
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09-13-20 | Cowboys -3 v. Rams | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -101 | 125 h 60 m | Show |
This is an 8* on DALLAS (MONEY LINE) - only needs to win straight up For a team that finished 8-8, the Cowboys were pretty impressive last season. They had the league’s top ranked offense and +113 point differential. That they couldn’t even make the playoffs was an indictment on their coaching and ability to win close games. The coaching issue was rectified by replacing Jason Garrett with Mike McCarthy. A team’s record in close games can vary wildly. Just look at Dallas each of the last two years. In 2018, they were 10-4 SU in games decided by eight points or less. Last year, that record fell to 1-6! The core of that top-ranked offense is not only back, but additional pieces were added. QB Prescott should have a big season. As for the Rams, they are 1-8-1 ATS L10 as a home dog. The myth of the home dog in primetime has largely been debunked anyway. The Rams fell to 9-7 in 2019, a decline of four wins from the previous year. Despite having a better record than Dallas, their point differential was only +30. Unlike the Cowboys, the Rams roster looks a lot weaker this year and another decline in wins is likely. Look for Dallas to win going away. Play on DALLAS AAA |
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09-13-20 | Bucs v. Saints OVER 49 | Top | 23-34 | Win | 100 | 121 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER This is probably the most anticipated game of the weekend as Tom Brady and the new look Bucs head into New Orleans to take on the always tough Saints. It’s the first time Brady will be an underdog in his last 75 regular season starts. Brady has been outstanding as an underdog (37-16-1 ATS) In his career and will obviously be motivated. He has much better weapons at his disposal here in Tampa than he did last year in New England. The Saints are the Saints. They are always going to score plenty. While the Bucs defense was actually underrated in terms of yards and stopping the run last year, the Over still went 12-4 in their games. In his last two home games vs. Tampa Bay, Drew Brees has completed over 80% of his passes with five touchdowns and zero interceptions. Over is 4-1 L5 meetings including 2-0 last year. Over is 6-0 in the Saints past six season openers. Over is 10-1 TB’s L11 conference games and 5-0 L5 times as a road underdog. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-13-20 | Clippers v. Nuggets +8.5 | Top | 98-111 | Win | 100 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DENVER Denver has already come back from one 3-1 series deficit (1st round vs. Utah). Can they do it again? Not sure (honestly seems doubtful), but a big difference between this and the Jazz series is that Denver is getting a lot of points on a game by game basis. Taking them here in Game 6, we don’t need a SU win to cash a winning ticket. Earlier in this series, the Nuggets did cover the spread without winning (Game 3). Game 5 saw them come back from a double digit deficit to stun the Clippers 111-105. We don’t see the Nuggets falling behind like that again. The Clippers have shot pretty poorly in three of the five games so far. When trailing in a playoff series, Denver is 8-1 ATS including 5-1 this year. Over the course of the five games, LA is only outscoring Denver by 5 PPG. Jokic, Murray and Porter all had nice performances in Game 5, which is worrisome for the Clippers. So was the play of their bench. Take the points here. Play on DENVER AAA |
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09-13-20 | Eagles -6 v. Washington Football Team | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -110 | 118 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PHI Washington is a team without a nickname and also without much direction. The front office, as always, is a mess. Ron Rivera has been chosen to lead this sinking ship and it's probably going to take a while until “Riverboat Ron '' gets this one floating again. Second year QB Dwayne Haskins did not have a particularly good rookie season. The Football Team won just three games in 2019, none of them against the division. In fact, they are 0-6 SU, 1-5 ATS the past six meetings with the Eagles. The Washington defense allowed points on more than 60% of the possessions it faced last year. There will be no home field edge here as no fans will be present. As we heard in the Thursday night game, even a reduced capacity can be noisy. It’s not just Philly that Washington struggles against. They have lost their last 10 NFC East games, covering the number just one time. No clue why this number has been bet down (as of Saturday). The Eagles own Washington and that figures to be the case again here. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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09-13-20 | Braves v. Nationals -175 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -175 | 13 h 0 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WASHINGTON At this time last year, Washington was getting ready to embark on a run that would end with them winning the World Series. Barring a miracle, there will be no repeat of that run here in 2020. The Nationals currently find themselves in last place with a 17-27 record in the NL East. They have next to no shot of even making the playoffs, despite the fact eight teams will get in. Yesterday, they lost 2-1 to the team that occupies first place in the division, Atlanta. While this would normally be a mismatch in the Braves favor, today is no normal day as Max Scherzer goes for the Nationals. Scherzer is still having a solid year with a 6-3 TSR and 3.40 ERA. That’s why Washington is favored Sunday. Scherzer threw seven scoreless innings in his last start. Kyle Wright has an 8.05 and 2.211 WHIP in five starts for the Braves. He’s 0-4. Atlanta is also 0-7 as a road underdog of +125 to +175. When they get to the postseason, the Braves could be in trouble with their starting rotation decimated by injuries. They’re in trouble today as well. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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09-12-20 | Golden Knights -160 v. Stars | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -160 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
This is an 8* on VEGAS Those pesky Stars keep getting it done as they now lead the Western Conference Finals 2-1. After they and Vegas exchanged shutouts in the first two games, Game 3 went to overtime with Dallas winning 3-2. That made us happy as we had the Stars +1.5. So we didn’t even need to sweat out OT! But we can’t sugarcoat the fact that the Golden Knights outshot them 40-23. Outshooting the opposition is something Vegas has consistently done in the postseason. They are averaging 36.3 shots/game of their own while only allowing 24.6 per game. Those kinds of numbers virtually guarantee you’ll be successful on a consistent basis. The Knights have not lost more than two straight here in the bubble. The only other time they lost back to back games was the last series vs. Vancouver and they responded with a 3-0 shutout. The Golden Knights, who are 11-2 L13 after scoring 2 goals or less, are a strong play for us here. Play on VEGAS AAA |
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09-12-20 | Rockets +6.5 v. Lakers | Top | 96-119 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON Houston is playing for its season Saturday night. They trail the Lakers 3-1 and were thoroughly outplayed in Game 4, losing 110-100. Really, it wasn’t even as close as the final score would indicate as the Rockets trailed by as many as 23 in the fourth quarter. In many ways, it was the polar opposite of both Games 2 and 3 when they played the Lakers tough, only to come up just shy on the scoreboard. While the Rockets faced a large early deficit in Game 2, they came back and took the lead going into the fourth quarter. Game 3 saw them have the lead at halftime. Both those games saw the Lakers shoot the lights out. In Game 4, it was a massive edge in the paint and on second-chance points for LA. On the bright side for Houston, Russell Westbrook finally “woke up” with a 25-point effort Thursday. Faced with the prospect of “win or go home,” we figure we’ll be getting the Rockets’ best effort here, which certainly wasn’t the case in any of the last three games. It may not completely resemble Game 1 (which they won 112-97), but they’ll at least stay within the number as James Harden will certainly shoot better than 2 for 11 in this game. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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09-12-20 | Duke v. Notre Dame -19.5 | Top | 13-27 | Loss | -109 | 67 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NOTRE DAME Notre Dame is part of the ACC for the 2020 season and comes in ranked #10 in the country. The only ACC team ranked higher is #1 Clemson. The Fighting Irish’s season begins at home in South Bend vs. Duke. This first “conference” challenge should be an easy one for Brian Kelly’s team, who won 11 games last season. Duke was just 5-7 in 2019. Though this is the first time (and probably last?) the schools will meet as “conference opponents,” they are familiar with one another. Last year, the Irish went into Durham and killed the Blue Devils 38-7 as seven-point favorites as QB Book threw four touchdown passes. Book, who finished with a 38-6 TD-INT ratio, is back to lead the Irish offense again this season. About 16,000 fans will be present Saturday afternoon in South Bend, so there is still a home field edge for a ND team that is 13-0 on this field the L2 years. Duke’s new starting QB is Chase Brice, a grad transfer from Clemson that hasn’t gotten much practice time with his new team due to the unusual summer. Center Jack Wohlabaugh just tore a knee ligament on Sept 1, complicating matters even further. Don’t hesitate to lay this number as the Fighting Irish should win big. Play on NOTRE DAME AAA |
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09-12-20 | Leeds United v. Liverpool OVER 3 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 16 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER If it feels like the 2019-20 Premier League season just ended, well, that’s because it did on July 26th. The incredibly quick turnaround between campaigns is obviously due to COVID-19, but you can bet all the clubs are eager to return to the pitch, starting Saturday. Liverpool is off a historic season where it set a number of EPL records, including earliest title win (with seven matches to spare). They also won 18 in a row (before being defeated by Watford on Feb 29), 25 straight at home and at one point had a 25-point lead in the table. Being that it was their first domestic title in 30 years, Liverpool is far from assured of finishing first again. They made almost no offseason additions. The same cannot be said for Leeds United, who added Rodrigo to its ranks via a record setting deal. Of course, Leeds has a long way to go to catching the likes of Liverpool as they were just promoted (after a 16-year Premier League absence) due to winning last season’s Championship. What we think you can expect here is a relatively high-scoring affair, or at least one that goes Over the total. Liverpool has kept just one clean sheet in its last nine affairs, which includes the preseason. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-12-20 | Syracuse +23 v. North Carolina | Top | 6-31 | Loss | -104 | 65 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SYRACUSE North Carolina went 7-6 straight up last season, a vast improvement on their 2-9 SU record the year before. The improvement was due to a combination of better luck and the return of Mack Brown as head coach. Syracuse, meanwhile, finished second to last in the Atlantic Division last year with a 5-7 overall record (2-6 in ACC). The Orange had won 10 games in 2018, so it was very much the reverse trend of what we saw in Chapel Hill. The ACC is using a “division-less” format for the 2020 season and adds Notre Dame to the mix. UNC is the third highest ranked team, behind only Clemson and the Irish. Though not much is expected from Dino Babers’ crew, don’t be surprised if they give UNC a run for its money in this season opener. Two years ago, the Orange won 40-38 in a double overtime game at the Carrier Dome. There is some question over who will be carrying the ball for Syracuse as the top two running backs on the depth chart both reportedly have opted out. But North Carolina had to deal with a five-day break in practice a couple weeks ago due to COVID-19. Syracuse has covered 11 of the last 16 times it has been a road underdog of more than three touchdowns. Play on SYRACUSE AAA |
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09-12-20 | UL-Lafayette v. Iowa State -11 | Top | 31-14 | Loss | -110 | 65 h 44 m | Show |
THis is a 10* on IOWA STATE Iowa State has delivered three straight winning seasons for Matt Campbelll. This is not exactly a program accustomed to that kind of “success.” The previous four years, including Campbell’s first on the job, all saw the Cyclones win three or fewer games. But now they’ve firmly established themselves as part of the Big XII’s upper tier. They open the season with Louisiana Lafayette, who won 11 games in 2019. Of course, playing in the Sun Belt is a lot different than the Big XII. The Ragin Cajuns probably aren’t going to end up with that kind of record in 2020, although they are the most experienced team in their league and a threat to repeat as Western Division Champs. But beating Iowa State seems out of the question as the Cyclones have even better offensive talent with the returning QB Purdy (3,982 yds in ‘19) and RB Hall (averaged 100+ YPG L8 wks). They enter the year ranked #23, but we feel they are even better than that. There will be 25,000 fans present in Ames Saturday, giving ISU some semblance of “home field advantage.” We think the spread for this game “speaks volumes” as oddsmakers are saying a Louisiana team no one is taking lightly will still get beaten by double digits. We agree. Play on IOWA STATE AAA |
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09-11-20 | Celtics v. Raptors UNDER 204.5 | Top | 92-87 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER It’s all tied up 3-3 between Boston and Toronto. The Raptors have never led in the series, coming back from 2-0 and 3-2. A case could be made that the series really hasn’t been that “close” seeing as two of the three Celtics wins were blowouts and all three Raptors wins have been close. With the exception of Game 3, which they won at the buzzer, Toronto has really struggled with its shooting against the Boston defense. Five of the six games have seen them shoot 43.6% or worse. The most points they’ve been able to muster in regulation is 104. Obviously, the final score of Game 6 is misleading since it went into double overtime. Now Boston has been held to 103 points or less (in regulation) in four of the six games. The Under is 8-2 in Boston games the L2 rounds and would be 6-0 in this series, if not for overtime in Game 6. The Under is 13-5 in all Toronto games since the restart. It’s Game 7, so the defensive intensity will be turned up to “10.” Play on UNDER AAA |