Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
05-23-19 | Marlins v. Tigers -147 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -147 | 6 h 57 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on DETROIT The Tigers continue to dig themselves an even deeper hole on what has been an absolutely dreadful homestand. That homestand ends today and they enter the finale with Miami on an eight-game losing streak, all of those games here at Comerica Park. While they were outscored 24-6 in three games by Houston and 28-6 in three games by Oakland, losing twice here to Miami just might be the official "low point" of the 2019 campaign. The Marlins, who have now won five straight and are going for a second straight sweep, nevertheless have the worst record in the whole National League. They have scored 24 fewer runs than the Tigers this season as these are the two lowest scoring teams in all of baseball. We believe the home team is going to come in highly motivated today as it looks to avoid a winless homestand. They did lead 3-0 (after three innings) yesterday. Hope comes in the form of Matthew Boyd for today as he has a 3.41 ERA and 1.01 WHIP on the year. He's been the team's most reliable starter. His last start was the first time this season that he allowed more than three earned runs (he allowed four). We give him the nod over Miami's Trevor Richards, who just won for the first time all year and has a 1-8 team start record. This will be just the second time the Tigers are higher than -125 on the money line. They won the first. The Marlins are 1-9 as a road underdog of +125 to +175. Play on DETROIT AAA |
|||||||
05-22-19 | Reds v. Brewers OVER 8 | Top | 9-11 | Win | 100 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Cincinnati-Milwaukee The Reds and Brewers went Under again on Tuesday. We use the term "again" because it was the eighth straight meeting to do so, going back to last season. But this time (meaning Tuesday), the Reds won, 3-0. It was Cincy's first win over Milwaukee this season after being swept at home back in early April. It was also their MLB leading seventh shutout. But the first time all season the Brewers were shutout comes with a caveat as they were without Christian Yelich (back spasms). His absence resulted in the team being unable to get any runner past second base the entire game. Now we realize that today's pitching matchup hardly seems like the one to break the trend of Unders when these teams meet. Cincy's Castillo has a 1.90 ERA while Milwaukee's Davies has a 1.54 ERA. The Under has gone a combined 16-3 in their 19 starts. But, with or without Yelich, I'll call for the Brewers to have a bounce back game at the plate. The Over is 10-3-1 the last 14 times they've been off a game where they scored two runs or less. Castillo is 11-5 Over the last 16 times he's started on five days rest. Play OVER Cincinnati-Milwaukee AAA |
|||||||
05-22-19 | A's v. Indians OVER 9.5 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
This is an 8* Play on OVER Oakland-Cleveland The Indians have dropped to 1-5 vs. the A's this season after taking back to back losses to open this series. One would have thought this might be a golden opportunity for the Tribe to get some revenge for dropping two of three in Oakland earlier this month as they had Carlos Carrasco and Trevor Bauer start the first two games. But that has obviously not been the case. The A's, now winners of five straight, have scored 39 runs during the course of that win streak. They figure to score plenty more today against the weakest of the three Cleveland starters they'll have faced in the series, Jefry Rodriguez, who just allowed season-highs in both runs and home runs allowed in his previous start. Frankie Montas pitches here for the A's. While he looked good his last time out, that was due to facing a very weak Tigers lineup. The Over is 12-1 in Oakland's previous 13 Wednesday games. Play OVER Oakland-Cleveland AAA |
|||||||
05-21-19 | Diamondbacks v. Padres OVER 7 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -118 | 14 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OVER Arizona-San Diego So the Diamondbacks and Padres failed to go Over yesterday as we predicted they would. It was another pitcher's duel between Luke Weaver and Chris Paddack with the Padres winning 2-1. But tonight's game has an even lower total and a slightly less attractive pitching matchup. Sure, Zack Greinke is involved for Arizona, but he has a 4.08 ERA on the road. He also had to leave his last start with an abdominal strain. While the injury is being downplayed, let's see how he performs moving forward. San Diego's offense may not have done much in recent days and Greinke has given them plenty of trouble through the years. But the Over is 6-0 in Greinke's last six division starts. It's also 5-2 his last seven starts vs. the Padres. San Diego will go with Strahm, who has seen his ERA lowered in six of his last seven starts. He's not allowed more than two runs in any of those seven starts, but he still has a home ERA above 4.00 and his worst start to date came against Arizona, who scored five times off him in just 2 2/3 innings. The Diamondbacks are averaging 5.4 runs/game on the road. Play OVER Arizona-San Diego AAA |
|||||||
05-21-19 | Bucks -2.5 v. Raptors | Top | 102-120 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on MILWAUKEE Milwaukee has turned in one dominant game in the Eastern Conference Finals (Game 2), but mostly trailed in the other two, so in some regards they should feel fortunate to be up in the series. They did have a golden opportunity to "steal one" on the road Sunday, which would have given them an insurmountable 3-0 series lead, but they ultimately lost in double overtime. With Golden State having swept its way into the NBA Finals, there's a little bit of pressure on the Bucks now to end this series quickly. We should obviously not discount the Raptors, but a win here by the Bucks and this series goes back to Milwaukee for Game 5 with a chance to close it out. Defensively, Milwaukee continues to do a great job as it is allowing less than 40% shooting for the entire playoffs. Perhaps even more impressive is their 21-5 ATS record coming off a SU loss. They are the better team here. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
|||||||
05-21-19 | Sharks v. Blues -158 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 21 h 60 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ST. LOUIS St. Louis has not been a dominant home team in these playoffs by any means. In fact, they are just 4-5 straight up at the Enterprise Center. That's a surprise seeing as they ended the regular season on a 14-2 streak in home games. But what they have done is close out both previous series at home. They'll have a chance to make it 3 for 3 as they host San Jose in Game #6 of the Western Conference Finals Tuesday. The Blues have to be feeling good about themselves right now after taking three of the last four games in this series. Had there not been a missed call in overtime of Game 3, this series might very well already be over. Game #5 was easily the most one sided affair of the series with St. Louis going to San Jose and delivering a 5-0 shutout. Adding injury to insult, the Sharks lost two key players in that game, Tomas Hertl and Joe Pavelski. Erik Karlsson, having suffered an injury in Game 4, also did not finish the last game. All three may not play Tuesday. The loss of Hertl would be particularly costly as he is #3 overall in goals scored this postseason. The Blues are 7-1 SU following the last eight games they scored 5+ goals. They move onto the Stanley Cup Finals. Play on ST LOUIS AAA |
|||||||
05-21-19 | Nationals v. Mets UNDER 7.5 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Washington-NY Mets You'd be hard-pressed to find two more disappointing teams in either league than the Mets and Nationals. By rule, someone had to win yesterday's game and it was the Mets doing so by a score of 5-3. Of course, one team will prevail again today, but the better bet is on the Under as neither team is doing much hitting lately, the Mets especially. They had been shutout in consecutive games (by Miami!) coming into this series and are hitting .206 over the last week. Even worse is that in those two shutout losses to Miami, they managed only three hits. They'd lost five in a row overall before yesterday. Washington has scored more than five runs only twice in its last 10 games. Erick Fedde is starting here only because of an injury to Anibal Sanchez. He did allow four runs (in relief of Sanchez) last week to the Mets, but should be better here. Again he'll face Zack Wheeler, who didn't exactly pitch well last Thursday either. But before that he'd tossed five quality starts in six tries. Play UNDER Washington-NY Mets AAA |
|||||||
05-20-19 | Diamondbacks v. Padres OVER 7 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER Arizona-San Diego Arizona is a team you probably don't hear about all that often, but they have managed to stay above .500 and are still in a good spot, despite suffering back to back losses. We had the Under in Sunday's game vs. the Giants, which was a 3-2 loss that went 10 innings. So you may be surprised to see that we're going Over in Monday's matchup with San Diego, which - on paper - would seem more conducive to an Under play. But the number is too low here. Padres starter Chris Paddack has been very good in his rookie year, guiding the team to a 6-2 record when he's on the mound and doing so with a 1.99 ERA and 0.75 WHIP. But he's off his worst start to date as he allowed six runs in just 4 2/3 innings to the Dodgers. San Diego is off three straight losses to Pittsburgh here at home and all three games went Over. The Diamondbacks go with Luke Weaver for this series opener and like Paddack he's pitched well. It was a 2-1 game when Weaver and Paddack met back in April, but the total there was 8.0. Arizona averages 5.6 runs/game on the road and the Over has cashed in 11 of their last 15 series openers. Plus, it is 12-4-1 their last 17 division games. Play OVER Arizona-San Diego AAA |
|||||||
05-20-19 | Warriors -3.5 v. Blazers | Top | 119-117 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on GOLDEN STATE The Warriors broke the hearts of the Blazers with a come from behind victory in Game #2 and they may very well have broken their spirit by doing the same in Game #3. Both instances saw the reigning champs battle back from a double digit halftime deficit. Blowing leads like that - in consecutive games - is really tough to battle back from and down 0-3 in a series would seem like the ideal spot to fade such a team as no team in history has come back to win a series down 0-3, so Portland basically knows its season ended Saturday night. Unlike Game #2 (when we cashed the Blazers plus the points), they could not even cover the spread in Game #3, losing by 11 as their poor shooting continued. Assuming Golden State does not fall into yet another early hole, covering the spread here should not be a problem at all. They have incentive to sweep as it will give them more time off before the NBA Finals and maybe Kevin Durant can return for that series. Play on GOLDEN STATE AAA |
|||||||
05-20-19 | Mariners v. Rangers OVER 11 | Top | 9-10 | Win | 102 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* Play on OVER Seattle-Texas A Seattle-Texas matchup should almost be an automatic "green light" to take the Over in our opinion. The Mariners have given up the most runs in all of baseball (292), but at the same time they have also scored the second most (258). Therefore, it's no shocker that they are the top Over team in the sport with a 34-12-3 O/U record. True to form, they are off a four-game series (against Minnesota) where they allowed 40 runs. Texas is off a series with St. Louis where every game went Under, but they are still giving up a high number of runs per game for the year (5.5). At the same time, they too can bring the offense as they average 5.8 runs/game, which is #1 in all of MLB! The only previous series between these teams in 2019 brought three Overs in four games (one push). The three games that went Over all saw the winning side score no fewer than 14 runs. Seattle starter Mike Leake did win his last time out, an impressive performance which saw him limit the A's to just three runs (only one earned), but he entered that start with an 0-5 TSR his last five starts. The Rangers hand the baseball to Mike Minor, who has a 4.21 ERA in nine career appearances vs. the Mariners. Play OVER Seattle-Texas AAA |
|||||||
05-19-19 | Cubs v. Nationals OVER 9.5 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER Cubs-Nationals We were on the Nationals last night as the thinking was Jon Lester's recent numbers weren't all they were cracked up to be. Sure enough, they got to Lester five times by the fifth inning and that was enough. Cubs manager Joe Maddon protested the loss due to the delivery of Washington reliever Sean Dolittle, which he complained about twice. Perhaps it was just seeing the Nationals bullpen pitch well that had Maddon raising his eyebrows. This group has been a disaster with a 6.77 ERA so far. Tonight's starter Jeremy Hellickson isn't much better with a 6.28 ERA his last three starts and a 7.90 ERA at home for the year. The Cubs would then seem to have a rather substantial edge in this matchup with Kyle Hendricks pitching as he has allowed just one earned run his last three starts where he's pitched 25 innings. But Hendricks is also a lot worse on the road with a 5.91 ERA. The Over is 14-7-1 in Cubs road games so far. Play OVER Cubs-Nationals AAA |
|||||||
05-19-19 | Bucks v. Raptors UNDER 220.5 | Top | 112-118 | Loss | -104 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER Milwaukee-Toronto Game #1 was a bad shooting night all-around as both teams finished below 40% from the field. The Bucks came from behind to win that one, 108-100, but then it was a wire to wire victory in Game #2 with them clobbering the Raptors 125-103. That was the most points given up by Toronto in any game in the playoffs and just the third allowing more than 108 points. All three have been on the road (twice at Philadelphia), so at least expect a lot better defense from the Raptors tonight in Game #3. They are still holding teams under 100 PPG overall in the playoffs. They've allowed just one 100+ point game at home the entire playoffs and that was the first game. At the same time, they haven't had a game where they shot 50% themselves since Game 1 vs. Philly. Milwaukee is a great defensive team as it led the league in efficiency in the regular season. The last five games have seen them limit opponents to a 38.1 FG%. In 10 playoff games, the Bucks have allowed more than 103 points only twice! Play UNDER Milwaukee-Toronto AAA |
|||||||
05-19-19 | Giants v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER San Francisco-Arizona These teams went Over on Saturday with the Giants winning 8-5. That was a bit of a rare occurrence as they previous five meetings (dating back to last August) had all gone Under. Three of those five games, including Friday's opener, were shutouts. San Francisco is not a team that's going to be able to consistently put runs on the board this year, so look for them to struggle at the plate today as they get set to face Robbie Ray, who has a 1.10 ERA his last three starts. Ray has allowed more than three earned runs in just one start all year, but even more key is that he's had the Giants number with a 3-0 record and 2.45 ERA in seven starts against them dating back to 2017. Right now, he looks like the pitcher who had a career year two seasons ago. SF's Pomeranz has had his struggles and will be coming off the DL here. But the Under is 5-2 his last seven starts. Play UNDER San Francisco-Arizona AAA |
|||||||
05-19-19 | Blues v. Sharks UNDER 5.5 | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 29 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on UNDER St. Louis-San Jose Boston is already onto the Stanley Cup Final, but we're guaranteed at least six games in the Western Conference Final where things are now squared back at two games apiece. The Blues shook off a brutal Game 3 finish to win Game 4, 2-1, and our read here is that another low-scoring affair is in the cards. We're now heading back to San Jose where the Sharks seem to have an advantage. The Over cashed in the first two games of the series here and the first three games overall. But the Under is 25-11-2 in the Blues last 39 games after scoring two goals or less their previous time out. They have Jordan Binnington in net. This rookie was a difference maker again in Game 4 by stopping 29 of 30 shots. At the same time, St. Louis had only 22 shots on goal themselves. Shot totals have not been particularly high in this series. We don't think they will be for this crucial Game #5 where both goalies figure to be at their best. Play UNDER St. Louis-San Jose AAA |
|||||||
05-19-19 | Dodgers -168 v. Reds | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on LA DODGERS The Dodgers had their four-game win streak (three shutouts) snapped on Saturday, but should get right back into the win column Sunday here in Cincinnati. They had shut the Reds out on Friday, 6-0, but then got a taste of their own medicine yesterday in a 4-0 loss. Shutouts have been incredibly common in Dodgers games recently with 7 of their last 10 games ending up that way, either in their favor or not. Five of the seven games have been wins. Two of the shutouts have been authored by today's starting pitcher, Hyun-Jin Ryu, who is on an incredible run and having an incredible season. Ryu is working on a 24 inning scoreless stretch and didn't allow a run in either of his last two starts. He took a no-hitter into the eighth inning of his last one. That came after a 93-pitch complete game. Ryu hasn't allowed more than 2 ER in any start all season. He has the second lowest ERA in the majors (1.72) right now. We just don't see how Tanner Roark and the Reds can match up here. Cincy is 5-12 in day games this season and 0-7 on Sunday. The Dodgers are 9-3 in day games. Play LA DODGERS AAA |
|||||||
05-18-19 | Warriors v. Blazers -2 | Top | 110-99 | Loss | -113 | 23 h 49 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on PORTLAND Despite not playing all that well in Game #1, Portland was very much alive going into the fourth quarter. They only trailed by six. Golden State took it from there, outscoring the Blazers 39-23 the rest of the way for a comfortable 116-94 win and cover. We were happy with that result seeing as we'd laid the points with the Warriors. But for Game #2, we took Portland and the points. That proved to be the absolute right call as the Blazers led outright almost the entire way. They were up by 15 at halftime and up eight with just 4:30 left in the game. But as we all now know, they lost 114-111. That's a bitter pill to swallow, but at least Portland is back at home for Game #3, which helps soften the blow. They are 37-10 SU at home for the year, including 5-1 in the playoffs. Their scoring average jumps to 118.1 points/game at the Moda Center. Let us not forget the Warriors are still playing without Kevin Durant. They've gone 3-0 since his injury, but they're more likely to miss him on the road. After Game #2's non-cover, the Warriors are now 3-8 ATS following a their last 11 straight up victories. Portland HAS to have this one. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
|||||||
05-18-19 | Warriors v. Blazers OVER 221 | Top | 110-99 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OVER Golden State-Portland Portland did not shoot well in Game #1 (36.1 FG%). As a result, they lost 116-94. We called for them to shoot much better in Game #2 and they did. Ultimately though, it did not matter as they dropped a 'heartbreaker' 114-111. Unlike Gm 1, that was an Over and that's how we're playing the Game #3 total. Portland is obviously a more prolific offensive team at home where tha average 118.1 points/game. The Warriors, even without Kevin Durant, have little issue scoring. They've gone for an average of 115 points in the first two games while shooting better than 50% overall. Steph Curry, as you might expect a former MVP would, has picked up the scoring slack in Durant's absence. Without question, the Blazers will be desperate in Game 3. But that doesn't mean the Warriors won't do their fair share of scoring as well. The Over is 12-4 when Portland is off a loss. It is also 13-3 the last 16 times they have hosted the Warriors. Play OVER Golden State-Portland AAA |
|||||||
05-18-19 | Cubs v. Nationals -137 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on WASHINGTON The Nationals fell to an unthinkable 2-8 in Max Scherzer starts by losing last night 14-6. Don't put that all on Scherzer, however. It was 3-2 game when he left (Nats trailing) and then the bullpen imploded in spectacular fashion, giving up 11 runs over the last three innings, including five home runs. Washington is better than this and we like them to bounce back behind Stephen Strasburg tonight. Strasburg hasn't gotten any run support in his last two starts, literally, as the Nationals didn't score a single run in either game. But Straburg is still pitching well. He's gone six or more innings in six straight starts and given up two runs or less in four of the last five. For the Cubs, Lester hasn't allowed any earned runs in his last three starts. But he still has a higher WHIP than Strasburg for the year, which is telling. There have been three unearned runs allowed in the last two starts as well as 17 hits. So it's not been the dominant stretch some will make it out to be. Lester has a 1-4 TSR his last five starts vs. the Nationals, who are 70-28 in Strasburg's last 98 starts. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
|||||||
05-18-19 | Cardinals v. Rangers OVER 12 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER St. Louis-Texas We're going Over the high total in this Interleague matchup. There has been a pitching change here with the Rangers now going with Jurado, who will be making his first start of the year, although it probably won't be for long. Jurado is being used as more of an "opener" and hasn't pitched more than 2 1/3 innings in any appearance this season. Though it did its job last night, it's not like the Rangers bullpen is very good. The offense scored all seven of its runs in the second inning and has now put 29 on the board the last three games. They've only given up five in the same stretch, but the three games before that saw them allow 37. We look for the St. Louis offense to break out of its mini-slump here as the Rangers are still giving up 5.5 runs/game, which is among the highest numbers in the sport. The Cardinals get to use a DH this weekend, so that helps. Problem is that Texas averages 6.6 runs/game at home, which is the highest average in either league. So Dakota Hudson is probably going to struggle here for St. Louis. He already has a 6.43 ERA and 1.86 WHIP in three road starts and other than Coors Field, this will probably be the most hitter-friendly park he pitches in all season. Play OVER St. Louis-Texas AAA |
|||||||
05-17-19 | Pirates v. Padres -155 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -155 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on SAN DIEGO How Pittsburgh is above .500 is a minor miracle. They have not just the worst run differential in the division (-48), but the second worst in the entire National League (Miami). They lost last night here in San Diego, 4-3, and we should get a repeat of that result tonight. Probably we should expect things to be even more lopsided. Even though the Bucs are 12-11 on the road, they've actually been outscored by a full run per game. The rotation is in tatters right now, putting a lot of pressure on starter Jordan Lyles this evening. While Lyles has a 6-1 team start record this year, his career numbers against San Diego aren't good at all. We're talking a 5.60 ERA, a 1.73 WHIP and opponents batting average of .296 against his former team. San Diego turns to Lucchesi, who is a much better pitcher at home than he is on the road. Then again, Lucchesi did just go 5 1/3 innings at Coors Field last Saturday while allowing one run. The Pirates have lost their last six games against left-handed starters. Play on SAN DIEGO AAA |
|||||||
05-17-19 | Raptors v. Bucks OVER 215.5 | Top | 103-125 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Toronto-Milwaukee We had the Under in Game #1, but go the other way (Over) for Game #2. Neither team shot well (both below 40% FG) Wednesday night. That's not likely to happen again. While Game #1 may have been just the fourth time in the playoffs that Toronto allowed more than 100 points, they may need to get used to doing so in this series seeing as Milwaukee led the league in scoring this season (118.1 points/game) and was #1 in offensive efficiency here. The Bucks aren't likely to shoot 39.8% from the field again, nor are they likely to miss three quarters of their three-point attempts. It was a similar poor shooting effort in Game 1 of the Boston series (they lost that one) and then they came back to score 123 points in the next game. Toronto is no slouch in the offensive department either. They were only 19 of 50 on two-point attempts in Game #1. They'll better that for sure tonight. The Over is 4-1 in Milwaukee's last five games on one day's rest, all of those coming in the playoffs. Play OVER Toronto-Milwaukee AAA |
|||||||
05-17-19 | Sharks v. Blues -136 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on ST. LOUIS We're not sure how long it will take to get over losing Wednesday's Game of the Year play on St. Louis. Certainly, we aren't over it yet. Watching the Blues storm back from a 3-1 deficit to take a 4-3 lead and then give up the game-tying goal late in regulation was tough enough. But the way they lost in overtime was worse and never should have happened. The refs missed a pretty blatant penalty on the Sharks, which led to the game-winning goal. But there's no better way for the Blues (and us) to avenge that defeat than by coming back and winning Game #4, which is again at home. St. Louis has been "left for dead" before. After all, they had the fewest points in the league back on January 2nd. So it would be very "on brand" to see them bounce back with a win tonight. We think they will as San Jose drops to 3-8 its last 11 road games. Play on ST. LOUIS AAA |
|||||||
05-17-19 | Brewers v. Braves -132 | Top | 8-12 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on ATLANTA Both the Braves and Brewers were playoff teams last year and obviously both would like to return there this fall. Both did win in their last series after losing the opener. Milwaukee took three of four, in Philadelphia, while Atlanta took two of three from St. Louis here at home. By rule, one of them is going to be successful in this series opener and we like the Braves. After being drubbed in the first game (lost 14-3), Atlanta gave it right back by outscoring St. Louis 14-2 the last two days. Starter Fried just may be the right man for the job tonight considering his 0.82 WHIP at home. Brewers starter Chacin has a 6.00 ERA on the road. Yes, Chacin has looked quite good of late, but the team is still 0-4 his last four road starts. The last one saw him allow just two runs at Wrigley and the Brewers still lost. Milwaukee is just 9-19 their last 28 games in Atlanta. Chacin also has an 0-4 team start record his last four starts against teams that have winning records. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
|||||||
05-17-19 | Cubs v. Nationals -145 | Top | 14-6 | Loss | -145 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on WASHINGTON The Nationals got a much needed win yesterday, 7-6 over the Mets, thereby taking that three-game set. They get a much tougher opponent this weekend, also at home, in the form of the Cubs. But they'll have Max Scherzer starting the opener Friday. Although Scherzer has a stunning 2-7 team start record this year, it's not like he's pitched that poorly. The ERA is definitely a little higher than normal (3.64) as is the WHIP (1.15). But both numbers are better at home despite an 0-5 TSR here. It's been four straight quality starts from Scherzer with 35 strikeouts in 27 innings and just nine total runs allowed. It's a tough matchup here vs. Cole Hamels, but Scherzer is 4-1 with a 2.55 ERA all-time against the Cubs, who have lost two in a row after winning six of seven. Having to sit through a rain delay last night in Cincinnati probably does them no favors for today. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
|||||||
05-16-19 | Blazers +7.5 v. Warriors | Top | 111-114 | Win | 100 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on PORTLAND Portland probably couldn't have played any worse in Game 1. Yet they were only down six going into the fourth quarter. Golden State took it from there, outscoring the Blazers 39-23 the rest of the way for a comfortable 116-94 win and cover. We were happy with that result seeing as we'd laid the points with the Warriors. But Portland obviously wasn't and to make this a series they're going to need to start shooting a lot better than they have recently. They have a field goal percentage of only 41.3 the last five games, including a playoff low 36.1% in Game 1. Three-point shooting in particular is due to improve. History is on the Blazers side as well, at least this season, as they are a perfect 8-0 against the spread seeking revenge for a double digit road loss. Remember that this team won twice in Denver last round and the Nuggets had the league's best home record. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
|||||||
05-16-19 | Cardinals v. Braves OVER 10 | Top | 2-10 | Win | 102 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OVER St. Louis-Atlanta The Cardinals and Braves have exchanged a couple of commanding wins here, albeit in much different fashion. St. Louis won the first game 14-3 while Atlanta won last night 4-0. For the Cardinals, this is a continuation of a "feast or famine" approach at the plate. Twice in the last five days they've scored 14 or more runs in a game and they have scored six or more runs in four of their last nine. But the other five have seen them score just three runs total as they've been held to 1 or 0 every time. We expect more "feast" tonight as they are set to face Julio Teheran, whose had himself an up and down to start the year. The Over is 9-3-2 the last 14 times St. Louis scored 2 runs or less in its last game. They are still third in the National League in runs scored. The Over is 4-0 the last four times Teheran has started on at least five days rest. He hasn't pitched since last Friday. Adam Wainwright will start tonight for the Cardinals. The Over is 16-7-1 when he starts off a team loss. Wainright has been a lot worse on the road so far where his ERA is 5.39. Play OVER St. Louis-Atlanta AAA |
|||||||
05-16-19 | Brewers v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | Top | 11-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 17 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER Milwaukee-Philadelphia Virtually all the trends say that we're heading for another Under between the Brewers and Phillies Thursday, which would be the third straight in the series. (Monday's game, a 7-4 Philly win, did go Over). The Under is 5-1 in the Brewers last six games as well as 6-1 in the Phillies last seven. Then you have the fact that today's starter for Milwaukee, Zach Davies, is 8-0 Under this year. Philadelphia, looking to earn itself a split of this four-game series, goes with Zach Eflin. He's pitched even better than this year than his counterpart with the 8-0 Under record, including a complete game effort in his last start. Despite all this, we look for this game to still go Over. We played the Over last night and it was looking good early with Milwaukee up 4-1 after just three innings. But things really settled down after that and it ended up a 5-2 final. It's not like both offenses aren't capable of a big day at the plate. Milwaukee has averaged 5.0 runs/game in the series. Philadelphia scored 6 or more in three straight games before the last two days. Let's try this again. Play OVER Milwaukee-Philadelphia AAA |
|||||||
05-15-19 | Raptors v. Bucks UNDER 217.5 | Top | 100-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Toronto-Milwaukee Neither Eastern Conference Finalist had a very hard time in Round 1 with the Raptors advancing after only five games against the Magic and the Bucks sweeping the Pistons. Toronto needed seven games to get rid of Philadelphia in Round 2, however, with the series coming down to a heart-stopping shot by Kawhi Leonard. It was the first playoff buzzer beater in a winner take all game since the infamous Michael Jordan shot over Craig Ehlo 30 years ago. While the Raptors were playing until Sunday, Milwaukee has enjoyed a full week off since eliminating the Celtics in five games. They had a similar amount of time off between the first two series and did lose Game 1 to Boston, scoring only 90 points in the process. That's the Bucks only loss of the playoffs so far. Toronto is giving up just 96 points/game in the playoffs and has allowed more than 100 in just two of the last 11 games. Not to be outdone, Milwaukee led the league in defensive efficiency during the regular season and has allowed no more than 104 points in seven of their nine playoff games. Play UNDER Toronto-Milwaukee AAA |
|||||||
05-15-19 | Raptors +6.5 v. Bucks | Top | 100-108 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on TORONTO Neither Eastern Conference Finalist had a very hard time in Round 1 with the Raptors advancing after only five games against the Magic and the Bucks sweeping the Pistons. Toronto needed seven games to get rid of Philadelphia in Round 2, however, with the series coming down to a heart-stopping shot by Kawhi Leonard. It was the first playoff buzzer beater in a winner take all game since the infamous Michael Jordan shot over Craig Ehlo 30 years ago. While the Raptors were playing until Sunday, Milwaukee has enjoyed a full week off since eliminating the Celtics in five games. They are 8-1 SU and ATS in the playoffs and have the home court edge in this series. But history shows they might come out a bit rusty for this one. Coming off similar rest between the first two series, they lost Game 1 to Boston here at home, dropping them to 2-4 ATS this season playing with three or more days rest. They are just 5-14-1 ATS their last 20 games in this situation. With the Raptors allowing less than 100 points/game in the playoffs, our recommendation is to take the points in Game 1. Play on TORONTO AAA |
|||||||
05-15-19 | Sharks v. Blues -140 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -140 | 29 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on ST. LOUIS St. Louis did what it needed to do in the first two games and that's win once. Now that they've stolen the home ice advantage away from San Jose, the Blues get the next two games at their rink. While they have not been as dominant at home as you would expect in the playoffs, they did close out each of their first two series at the Enterprise Center. They are 17-6 the last 23 games here and that includes one loss where they were not money line favorites. After poor defensive play essentially "gave away" Game #1, the Blues responded with a very impressive 4-2 win in Game #2. How did they do it? With much better defense. The Sharks simply do not score as many goals on the road as they do at home. In the 10 home playoff games, they have scored 39 goals or an average of 3.9 per game. In six road playoff games, they have scored only 12 goals or an average of 2.0 per game. That's basically a 50% drop in production. Individually, 16 of the combined 22 playoff goals from Logan Couture and Thomas Hertl have been scored in San Jose. In their lone regular season visit to the Gateway City, the Sharks were shut out 4-0. Play on ST. LOUIS AAA |
|||||||
05-15-19 | Brewers v. Phillies OVER 9 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -101 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OVER Milwaukee-Philadelphia This is a four-game series the Phillies and Brewers are involved in and so far each team has notched a win. Milwaukee got their yesterday, 6-1, snapping a three-game losing streak in the process. But prior to that three-game slide, they'd won seven in a row. Philadelphia had won 5 of 6 before tasting defeat on Tuesday and in those five wins had scored 35 runs. They've been one of the top offensive teams in the National League, especially at home where they are scoring 5.6 runs per game. It may look like a bit of a tough assignment tonight vs. Gio Gonzalez, but the numbers from Gonzalez are a byproduct of a small sample size with two of the three starts coming against the Mets. The Over is 10-3 the Phillies last 13 home games vs. a left-handed starter. Jake Arrieta goes here for Philly and he allowed three home runs in his last start. He'd allowed just five in his previous seven starts combined and the three homers given up came in an American League park. But Arrieta definitely seems to be "slowing down" lately with a 6.19 ERA his previous three starts. Play OVER Milwaukee-Philadelphia AAA |
|||||||
05-15-19 | Angels v. Twins -129 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 5 h 39 m | Show |
This is an 8* Play on MINNESOTA The Twins certainly look like the team to beat in the AL Central at this point. In fact, they are one of just six MLB teams to be currently playing .600 ball or better. They have the second best overall record in the American League after beating the Angels yesterday, 4-3, and it shouldn't be much trouble winning again here on Wednesday afternoon. Minnesota will give the baseball to a hot hand in Jake Odorizzi, who is currently working on a 20-inning scoreless streak. Odorizzi is 2nd in the AL in ERA at 2.32 and during the 20 innings of scoreless baseball, he's allowed a total of just seven hits. He's allowed 3 ER or fewer in all but one start in 2019. His last start saw Odorizzi go seven innings and allow just one hit to Detroit. Another hot hand for the Twins, Kyle Gibson, did very well against the Angels yesterday. It's hard to imagine Odorizzi not doing the same given the struggles we've seen from the Angels lineup on the road this year. Trevor Cahill starts for the road team and he hasn't exactly pitched well of late. We're talking an 8.10 ERA and 1.65 WHIP his L3 starts and a 6.35 ERA and 1.37 WHIP overall. Cahill has struggled at Target Field in the past (6.23 ERA) as well. The Twins are giving up only 3.2 runs/game at home this year and only 2.7 the last 7 games overall. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |
|||||||
05-14-19 | Blazers v. Warriors -7.5 | Top | 94-116 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on GOLDEN STATE Golden State is making its fifth straight Western Conference Finals appearance while Portland is here for the first time since 2000. The experience edge should ultimately prevail here in Game 1 and we're going to lay the points. It's easy to forget, but the Blazers were down 17 in the first half of their eventual Game 7 victory against Denver on Sunday. The Warriors, playing without Kevin Durant, eliminated Houston on Friday. The couple of extra days between series is a nice edge for Golden State as they have to keep going on sans Durant. They've got the edge in rest and home court. We have Houston rated stronger than Portland so this is one of those rare times a team (Golden State) is actually facing a weaker team after advancing. Even though they did win Game 7 in Denver, the Blazers are still only 24-23 SU on the road this season. They are 1-5 ATS following their last 6 straight up victories. They are just 9-22 ATS their last 31 trips into Oakland and that includes a 28-point loss earlier in the season. Play GOLDEN STATE AAA |
|||||||
05-14-19 | Blazers v. Warriors OVER 219 | Top | 94-116 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OVER Portland-Golden State Golden State is making its fifth straight Western Conference Finals appearance while Portland is here for the first time since 2000. The experience edge should ultimately prevail here in Game 1 and the series. But we like the Over too as both of these teams can score. The big story coming into this series is the absence of Kevin Durant, but the Warriors did just fine without him in closing out Houston Friday night. They scored 118 points with Steph Curry and Klay Thompson combining for 60 points as they were 11 of 24 from three-point range. With Durant out, we expect Curry to more than pick up the slack. Of course, Portland's starting backcourt can score too with Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum taking turns leading their team. It was McCollum's 37 points in Game 7 vs. Denver that was the difference as the Blazers overcame a 17-point first half deficit. Lillard had scored 32 points in Game 6 of that last series and he's put together some big games vs. the Warriors this year, averaging 28.3 points per contest (4 games). The Over is 19-7 the last 26 times these teams have played. Play OVER Portland-Golden State AAA |
|||||||
05-14-19 | Astros v. Tigers OVER 10.5 | Top | 11-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Houston-Detroit As you might expect, the Astros rolled to an 8-1 victory last night in the series opener here in Detroit. The Tigers appeared overmatched from the jump as starter Boyd gave up three early runs and Houston never trailed en route to its sixth straight victory. Boyd is Detroit's best starter, so you have to figure the Astros are going to continue to score runs here at Comerica Park, today in particular as they are set to face Ryan Carpenter, whose first start did not go well at all. Against the Angels last Thursday, Carpenter conceded six runs and lasted just five innings. Houston has scored 34 runs in just the last three games and scored 10 or more four times in its last 10 games overall. But we should also see the Tigers put more runs on the board Tuesday. Houston's Wade Miley has pitched well this season, but strikeout numbers are low and four previous starts against Detroit have brought zero wins and an ERA of 6.63. He also has an ERA above 4.00 on the road this year. Play OVER Houston-Detroit AAA |
|||||||
05-13-19 | Angels v. Twins OVER 9 | Top | 5-4 | Push | 0 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER LA Angels-Minnesota Minnesota is the biggest surprise in baseball right now as they have the best overall record at 25-14. They did lose to Detroit on Sunday, but have to be feeling good about their chances tonight as they'll send out Jose Berrios. Berrios has been tremendous so far with 51 strikeouts against only eight walks in 53 1/3 innings. The Twins have won seven of the eight times he's started and Berrios has posted a 2.53 ERA and 0.919. But two previous starts against the Angels have resulted in a 5.56 ERA, so do not be surprised if he gives up more runs here than per usual. Tyler Skaggs goes for the Angels and he has a 6.38 ERA and 1.581 WHIP on the road this season. The Angels let me down big time on Sunday, but are still scoring 5.9 runs/game over the last week. There have also been three times in the last eight games they've allowed 10 or more runs. The Twins are scoring 5.3 runs per game this year, so this total looks low. The Over is 8-1 the Angels last nine tries off a loss and 7-1 the last eight times the Twins have taken on a left-handed starter. Play OVER Angels-Twins AAA |
|||||||
05-12-19 | 76ers v. Raptors UNDER 209 | Top | 90-92 | Win | 100 | 19 h 25 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Philadelphia-Toronto This series has seen mostly low-scoring games, so it stands to reason that Game #7 will follow suit. Toronto has played exceptional defense throughout the playoffs. They are allowing only 96.5 points/game on 41.1% shooting. Philadelphia happens to have blown by those averages twice in the last four games, but both instances came when they were the home team. No visitor has been able to score more than 104 points in Toronto this postseason. But the Raptors have still dropped two home playoff games, including one in this series (Game #2) where they scored only 89 points. They've topped 101 points only one time in the last five games. There have been only three playoff games where they have scored more than 108 points. Not only is the Under 5-0 the last five times Philly has been off an ATS win, but the Under is 4-0 the last four times Toronto has been off an ATS loss. Play UNDER Philadelphia-Toronto AAA |
|||||||
05-12-19 | Reds v. Giants UNDER 7 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Cincinnati-San Francisco In the opener of this three-game series, we took the Over. The Reds definitely did their job in the game, scoring seven times, but the Giants were shutout and thus we missed the Over by a half run. Saturday's game did go Over, with the Reds winning again, this time a closer game. It was 5-4 with the Reds scoring three times in the first and then getting a run in both the 5th and 7th innings to tie and win the game. The Over has hit in five of six meetings this season and it was 4-0 in last weekend's series in Cincy. We think this game goes differently though as SF has Bumgarner on the hill. He's off two straight quality starts where he allowed a total of four runs in 12 innings. Even more impressive is the fact the last one came at Coors Field. His last home start saw him allow just one run to the Dodgers. He did not pitch in the series against the Reds. Cincy goes with Mahle, who has both yet to win and yet to see a start go Over. The Under is 6-0-1 in Mahle starts with the Reds being shutout in three of them! In the seven starts, Cincinnati has scored just nine runs total and four of the games have seen three or fewer runs scored total! Mahle has allowed just 1 ER in each of his last two starts. Play UNDER Cincinnati-San Francisco AAA |
|||||||
05-12-19 | Angels -155 v. Orioles | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -155 | 16 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on LA ANGELS You probably don't have to be told that the Orioles are horrible, but allow us to extrapolate. By a large margin, they are the worst team in the American League. They've now been outscored by 79 runs on the season and are just 13-26. They've lost 10 of 13 including four straight. No other team can touch their 233 runs allowed this year, easily the most in all of MLB. The Angels have come into Camden Yards and taken the first two games by scores of 8-3 and 7-2. Par for the course for the O's. We had Los Angeles in the first game and Sunday's finale will be our top MLB side for May. You might think Baltimore has some sort of chance here, given how John Means has pitched. But Sunday's starter has gotten to face two opponents twice so far. Baltimore is 5-15 at home and 5-12 in day games. Canning starts today for the Angels and his first two outings have both resulted in victories with him fanning 13 in 9 2/3 innings. The Angels are now 7-1 vs. the Orioles since the start of last season and 11-3 since the start of the 2017 season. They are 10-4 their last 14 games overall and two of the four losses were down in Mexico against Houston. Play on LA ANGELS AAA |
|||||||
05-12-19 | Blazers v. Nuggets -5.5 | Top | 100-96 | Loss | -107 | 16 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on DENVER Going into each of Denver's two series thus far, we've stated the fact they had the home court advantage would be vital. Once again, we find them hosting a Game 7. The first round series against San Antonio ended with the Nuggets winning 90-86 here at the Pepsi Center. Though they won, it ended up being a terrible beat (we had Denver) as they blew the cover late (were -6.5). It was a game they led wire to wire and were up double digits much of the way. The reason the home court edge has been so crucial in these first two series is not only because Denver has such a dramatic home vs. road split, but so too have each of their opponents. The Nuggets have the best home record in the league at 39-9 straight up, but are just 22-23 on the road. San Antonio had the second best home record in the league in the regular season, but was just 16-25 on the road. Portland isn't quite as dramatic, but they are 37-10 at home vs. just 23-23 on the road. Denver has lost one home game in each round, but notable is that they have given up 98 points or less four of the last five games here. They'll shoot a lot better today than they did in Game #6 simply because of the return home. Portland has followed up its last five SU wins with an ATS loss. Play on DENVER AAA |
|||||||
05-12-19 | Hurricanes v. Bruins UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -125 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER Carolina-Boston Carolina had a 2-1 lead going into the third period of Game 1, but that quickly went away when Boston scored on consecutive power play opportunities, those goals coming less than 30 seconds apart. That 3-2 advantage held until just over two minutes were left in regulation when the Bruins scored on an empty net. They added another for good measure seconds later. So from a total bettor's perspective, the fact the game "easily" went Over is highly misleading. Boston was tied for third in goals allowed in the regular season. So we should see Carolina limited again here offensively. But with Petr Mrazek back in net, we likely won't be seeing another four goal period from the Bruins either. Game 1 was the most goals the Hurricanes allowed in a game since losing 6-0 to Washington back in the first round. In between those two losses, they won six straight times and gave up only 10 goals. In the four-game sweep of the Islanders, they allowed only five goals! The Under is 4-0 the previous four times the Bruins have been off a game where they scored five or more goals. Play UNDER Carolina-Boston AAA |
|||||||
05-11-19 | Blues v. Sharks UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -123 | 29 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* Play UNDER St. Louis-San Jose Both the Blues and Sharks needed seven games to get here and we were on both in the respective Game 7 victories. St. Louis outlasted Dallas, winning a thrilling double OT game at home on Tuesday. The following night was San Jose's turn as they also won by one goal, beating Colorado 3-2, a game which swung on a disallowed goal. The key to St. Louis getting this far has been goaltender Jordan Binnington. He led the league in goals against average (1.89) in the regular season and allowed just two goals in the final two games of the last series. San Jose has scored more than three goals only one time in its last six games. The last six times these teams have played, the game has stayed Under. Three were shutouts, two of those taking place this year. So another low-scoring game should be in the cards tonight, especially with both teams having done such a great job recently at limiting the number of shots their goaltenders have seen. Play UNDER St. Louis-San Jose AAA |
|||||||
05-11-19 | Mariners v. Red Sox OVER 10.5 | Top | 5-9 | Win | 102 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Seattle-Boston We had the Over in this matchup last night and the Red Sox did all the "heavy lifting" in a 14-1 beatdown of the Mariners. That result is fairly indicative of the way things have been going lately for each team. After digging itself an early season hold, Boston is 14-6 its L20 games and now over .500 for the first time all year. Seattle started 13-2, but is just 7-19 since and trending in a direction that will have them below .500 in no time. Part of the Mariners problem is that they are giving up way too many runs. Yesterday was a "Exhibit A" in that regard. It was the 4th time they've given up double digits runs (10 or more) to the opponent in the last 12 games. At the same time though, they still lead the league in runs scored and home runs. Yesterday was a bad day at the plate, but the M's had scored 10 in two of their five games before last night. Meanwhile, the Red Sox are averaging 5.1 runs/game at Fenway Park. The should do well today against Felix Hernandez, whose best days are long behind him. Hernandez recently allowed 7 runs in a bad night at Yankee Stadium. Things aren't likely to go any better here. The Over is 3-1 in Hernandez's last four starts and he has a 6.16 ERA on the road. Boston's Rick Porcello has pitched better of late, but he still has a 5.11 ERA and 1.567 WHIP on the year and the Over is 6-1 in his 7 starts. Play OVER Seattle-Boston AAA |
|||||||
05-10-19 | Reds v. Giants OVER 7.5 | Top | 7-0 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER Cincinnati-San Francisco This is a rematch of a series played last weekend in Cincinnati. The Reds and Giants split four games, but all of them went Over. Tonight's series opener in San Francisco should also go Over the number. The Giants offense has slowly woken up. After those four straight Overs last weekend in Cincinnati, they put 25 more runs on the board in two games at Colorado. Unfortunately for them, they also allowed 12 yesterday as what would have been a remarkable comeback at Coors Field (trailed 7-0 after two innings) ultimately fell short. That was the 5th time in the past 10 games the Giants pitching staff allowed 10 or more runs. Cincinnati's offense really hasn't been producing that much this year, but they did score 37 times in four games vs. the Giants last weekend. They should score plenty more here against Dereck Rodriguez, who they homered off four times last Saturday while scoring eight runs in just five innings. Rodriguez has allowed a total of 14 runs in his last two starts. The Reds go with Castillo, who allowed four runs in his start vs. SF last weekend. Play OVER Cincinnati-San Francisco AAA |
|||||||
05-10-19 | Warriors v. Rockets -7 | Top | 118-113 | Loss | -109 | 33 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on HOUSTON We'll look to stay perfect in this series by going with the Rockets in Game #6. Now laying points may not seem like an especially fruitful venture, considering the way this series has gone so far. All five games have been decided by six points or less, however, the home team is 5-0 straight up as well. The Rockets won Game #3 by five points (OT) and Game #4 by four points. But they are this big a favorite for a reason and that reason is Kevin Durant's calf injury, which will almost certainly keep him out of Game #6. No one should ever root for a player to get injured, but Rockets fans have to feel like this is a bit of "poetic justice" considering this is exactly what happened to them with Chris Paul in last year's Western Conference Finals. After losing Paul, the Rockets lost the next two games and the rest is history. Now they'll hope history repeats itself with the Warriors and Durant. This is the most points Golden State has ever gotten under Steve Kerr in the playoffs. Durant was leading the league in scoring in the playoffs at 35.4 points/game, so the loss of him can't be overstated. The Warriors did not look like the same team once he went down. The Rockets are 4-1 ATS in this series and 9-1-1 ATS their last 11 home games. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
|||||||
05-10-19 | Mariners v. Red Sox OVER 10 | Top | 1-14 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Seattle-Boston The Red Sox used yesterday to visit the White House, but are now back to playing baseball as they'll host the Mariners for a three-game series. Things have started come full circle for Boston, who opened the 2019 season by losing three of four up in Seattle. They were 6-13 on April 17th, but have since gone 13-6 to square themselves up at .500. The Mariners are going the opposite direction. They started 13-2, but have cooled off considerably, losing 18 of the last 25 games. One thing they haven't stopped doing though is having their games go Over the total. No team has produced more Overs this year than has Seattle (27-10-3 O/U record). They've hit the most home runs and scored the most runs in all of baseball. The Red Sox are also starting to produce, at least they are at Fenway Park, where they average 5.1 runs per game. Friday starter Rodriguez has seen six of his seven starts go Over, including four straight. Even though he has a 5-2 TSR, his ERA is 5.40 and his WHIP is 1.50, not impressive numbers. Seattle starter Swanson has seen his last three starts all go Over as he has an ERA & WHIP of 5.74 and 1.40 in them. Play OVER Seattle-Boston AAA |
|||||||
05-10-19 | Angels -172 v. Orioles | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 7* play on LA Angels As long as they stay in the United States, the Angels are doing quite well for themselves lately. Last weekend saw them have to travel down to Mexico for a two-game series against the Astros. Those games went very badly as Los Angeles was outscored 24-6. But prior to heading South of the border, they'd won four straight and had swept Toronto. Upon their return to the U.S., the Angels took two of three from Detroit, including 13-0 win yesterday. Now they open up a series against who is unquestionably the worst team in the American League, Baltimore. The Orioles did have Thursday off, but days off previously have not helped them at all. They are 3-6 in the role this season and 12-36 their L48! Neither starting pitcher for Friday is going to remind you of Cy Young. But Baltimore's Straily has a 7.49 ERA in nine career starts vs. the Angels while LA's Cahill has a 1.97 ERA in five career starts vs. the Orioles. The Angels hit 5 HR's yesterday and the Orioles staff has given up a league-high 80 longballs this season. Play on LA Angels AAA |
|||||||
05-09-19 | Nuggets v. Blazers -4 | Top | 108-119 | Win | 100 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on PORTLAND Look for a big time rebound from the Blazers at home in Game #6 Thursday night. They were blown out in Game #5, losing 124-98. It was easily their worst game in the playoffs and it put them behind the proverbial 8-ball as they'll now have to win the next two games to make the Western Conference Finals. But winning here at home should come pretty easy. Our feeling, much like Denver's first round series against San Antonio, is that home court advantage would play an extremely important role in this series. The Nuggets have the best home record in the league, but are a below .500 team on the road. The Blazers are 36-10 SU in home games this year, though they did lose Game 4 here. But we should see across the board improvement from Game #5 where they only shot 36.7%, easily their worst field goal percentage of any playoff game yet. Something we've harped on previously is that Denver is way worse defensively on the road. They allow less than 103 points/game at the Pepsi Center. On the road, that number jumps to 110.8. The Blazers are a perfect 7-0 ATS this season when seeking revenge for a double digit road loss. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
|||||||
05-09-19 | Nuggets v. Blazers OVER 215.5 | Top | 108-119 | Win | 100 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on OVER Denver-Portland Look for a big time rebound from the Blazers at home in Game #6 Thursday night, especially offensively. They were blown out in Game #5, losing 124-98. It was easily their worst game in the playoffs and it put them behind the proverbial 8-ball as they'll now have to win the next two games to make the Western Conference Finals. In Game #5, Portland only shot 36.7%, easily their worst field goal percentage of any playoff game yet. Something we've harped on previously is that Denver is way worse defensively on the road. They allow less than 103 points/game at the Pepsi Center. On the road, that number jumps to 110.8. The Over is now 7-0 in Denver's last seven road games. For whatever reason, oddsmakers have decided to stick to their guns with fairly low totals in this series. That doesn't make much sense though seeing as the Over has hit eight of the nine times these teams have met this season with many of those games going Over by double digit margins. The Over is 19-7-1 in Portland's last 28 home games too. Play OVER Denver-Portland AAA |
|||||||
05-09-19 | Nationals v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on UNDER Washington-LA Dodgers The Dodgers haven't been giving up many runs at home all season and they shouldn't give up very many today as they open a weekend series against the slumping Nationals. Washington has lost six straight series and four games in a row and the biggest reason for that is they just aren't scoring. Three Opening Day starters are on the disabled list and they have scored more than three runs in just 2 of their previous 13 games. Dodger Stadium hasn't been too kind to opposing teams so far as they are hitting just .223 here. Rich Hill should take care of this scuffling Washington lineup tonight. He has an 11-0 TSR his last 11 starts vs. NL East teams. If the Nats are too have any chance of winning this game, it will be because of Patrick Corbin, who had a 0.77 ERA in four starts vs. LA last year when he was a member of the Arizona Diamondbacks. Corbin posted a 2.49 ERA in his first five starts this year and has had only one non-quality outing all year. Play UNDER Washington-LA Dodgers AAA |
|||||||
05-09-19 | Reds v. A's OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER Cincinnati-Oakland The Reds and A's went 13 yesterday with the home team finally winning 5-4. That's a final score that we'd "accept" again this afternoon given the total posted by the oddsmakers. Cincinnati has been one of the lower scoring teams in all of MLB, but maybe a visit to an American League park might do the trick? Now they get to use a designated hitter. They've already been trending in an "Over direction" recently with five of the last six games going that way. Oakland has held them to just two runs in the two games so far (won both) as Michael Fiers tossed a no-hitter Tuesday. They will send Chris Bassitt to the mound for the finale. But while Bassitt has a 2.12 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in three starts, we don't expect him to pitch all that well today. Same for Reds starter Roark, who has a 1.53 WHIP on the year (seven starts). It's still a limited sample size with Bassitt to draw any real conclusions. The Over is 5-2 in Cincy's last seven Interleague road games, which supports our theory concerning the DH. The Over is also 24-9-1 the L34 times the A's scored at least five runs the previous game. Play OVER Cincinnati-Oakland AAA |
|||||||
05-08-19 | Rockets v. Warriors UNDER 219.5 | Top | 99-104 | Win | 100 | 14 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER Houston-Golden State We had the Under in the last game, which Houston won. The Under did too, albeit barely. Every game in this series has been close, including that last one, which was a 112-108 final. All four games in this series have been decided by six points or less. Game 5 has all the makings of another tight affair, but again our call is on the Under. The Under is now 10-3 the past 13 meetings and 20-8-1 in the Rockets last 29 games overall. The Under is also 9-3 the last 12 times the Warriors have been off a straight up loss. In the playoffs, Houston has really stepped up its defense, giving up an average of just 104.1 points/game. Steph Curry somewhat rediscovered his shooting touch in Game 4, however, he still missed 10 of 14 three-pointers and is below 30% from behind the arc in the series. Speaking of shooting, Houston isn't as likely to shoot the ball as well on the road as they did at home. They averaged just 104.5 points/game in the first two games here in Oakland. We're 4-0 in this series, cashing side & total in Game #1, Houston in Game #3 and the Under in Game #4. Play UNDER Houston-Golden State AAA |
|||||||
05-08-19 | Avalanche v. Sharks -134 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on SAN JOSE We backed the home team in last night's Game 7 and will do so again in this one as San Jose hosts Colorado. For the Sharks, the Avalanche have been a lot harder to deal with in this series, then they were in the regular season. San Jose won all three times they played in the regular season, but this series has seen neither side be able to win consecutive games. That bodes well for San Jose though as they LOST Game #6 in Denver, 4-3 in overtime. Of course, this isn't San Jose's first Game 7 of these playoffs. They won in dramatic fashion (overtime) in a Game 7 in Round 1 over Vegas. That came after having to win on the road in Game 6 (a 2 OT game). Home teams have now won 3 of the 4 Game 7's played in the playoffs so far. Colorado is just 3-13 the last 16 times they have been an underdog of +150 or less on the money line. Play on SAN JOSE AAA |
|||||||
05-08-19 | Celtics v. Bucks -9 | Top | 91-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on MILWAUKEE It's all over but the shouting in Boston as the Celtics are falling apart before our very eyes. Kyrie Irving seems to have lost the trust of his teammates as he's shot them right out of this series. Not that the rest of the team is doing much. In the last three games, Boston has shot 103 of 257, which is barely above 40%. That simply won't get it done against a team like Milwaukee, who just put up 123 points in both games at Boston. The Bucks have clearly emerged as the better team here and may very well be getting Malcolm Brogden back for Game #5 as well. With the series back in Milwaukee, what chance do the Celtics really have. The Bucks are already a league best +12.1 points per game at home this season. This has all the makings of the Celtics waving the proverbial white flag. Milwaukee's superiority just wasn't taken seriously enough. This team is legit. They've gone 38-18-2 ATS their last 58 games. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
|||||||
05-08-19 | Twins v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER Minnesota-Toronto Minnesota delivered another shutout against Toronto on Tuesday, winning 3-0, but tonight's game should feature a lot more runs. The two starters here simply are not as good as who pitched yesterday. The surging Twins got a four-hitter from their top starter Jose Berrios, but Kyle Gibson is probably the 4th best option in their rotation at this point. He has a 4.68 ERA overall and should feel very lucky to have a 3-1 team start record on the road seeing his ERA and WHIP are 5.31 and 1.62 respectively. As for the Blue Jays, they'll be sending out Trent Thornton, who is not only still winless after seven starts but he also has a 5.00 ERA at home. The Twins have been doing a lot of scoring on the road so far, averaging 5.8 runs/game. That's #4 in all of baseball. Meanwhile, Toronto has yet to score in this series, losing the first two games by scores of 8-0 and 3-0. That should change here, even though the poor offensive numbers might suggest otherwise. The Over is 5-1 in Gibson's last six starts against the Blue Jays. Play OVER Minnesota-Toronto AAA |
|||||||
05-08-19 | White Sox v. Indians -195 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 6* play on CLEVELAND The Indians should not be losing two in a row to the White Sox, but that's precisely what has transpired over Monday and Tuesday. At the risk of stating the obvious, it's difficult to win in this game when you don't score any runs. Over its last three games, Cleveland has scored a grand total of one run! Whereas Sunday and Monday's losses (Sunday to Seattle) were lopsided, last night was a 2-0 game that they managed only five hits. This issue has to be corrected eventually and we think tonight is that time as the Tribe will be facing a struggling starter in Reynaldo Lopez, whose numbers leave a lot to be desired. In seven starts, Lopez has a 6.69 ERA and 1.76 WHIP. After it appeared he might be turning a corner, he allowed six runs to Boston on Friday. We played against him then and will do so again tonight. Cleveland's Shane Bieber has allowed three runs or less in every start but one this year, which will always give his team a chance to win. The runs have to start coming for the Indians sooner or later and we'll call for them to break out of the slump here. Play on CLEVELAND AAA |
|||||||
05-07-19 | Blazers v. Nuggets OVER 213 | Top | 98-124 | Win | 100 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER Portland-Denver Total is still too low for this series, which has seen three of the four games go Over. It's not just that though. All four regular season meetings between Denver and Portland also went Over. Game 4 saw 228 total points scored. All three Overs in the series have cashed by double digits. Yes, one of them was a 4 OT game. But considering we are dealing with two teams that have averaged more than 110 points/game over the course of the season, the point still stands that this number is too low. The Over is 13-6-1 in Portland's last 20 games following a straight up loss. The Over is 6-2 in Denver's last eight games off an ATS win. Even though Damian Lillard has been off since going for 39 points in Game 1, two of the three games have still gone Over. There are enough contributors on both teams that each will again find a way to get points. Play OVER Portland-Denver AAA |
|||||||
05-07-19 | Stars v. Blues -130 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on ST. LOUIS It's come down to a Game 7 between the Stars and the Blues. It'll be played in St. Louis, which seems like an obvious advantage for the home team, but they're actually just 2-4 SU here in the postseason. But after losing both Games #2 and #5 on home ice (won Game #1), we look for the Blues to win here. We simply believe them to be the better team as Dallas has had an issue scoring all season on the road (29th in the league). The Blues won Game #6 in Dallas, 4-1, and would seem to have some momentum here. Don't discount the impact of the injury suffered by Stars goalie Ben Bishop on Sunday as he had to leave the ice. He'll obviously go in Game #7, but is he at 100% for the biggest game of the year? After the road team took four of the previous five games, it's time for the home team to deliver when it matters most. The Blues have won all three games where they scored at least three goals and we expect them to hit that number tonight. Play on ST. LOUIS AAA |
|||||||
05-07-19 | 76ers v. Raptors UNDER 211.5 | Top | 89-125 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER Philadelphia-Toronto Every game in this series has gone Under. In fact, for both teams, the Under trend extends back into the first round. Philadelphia's last six games have all gone Under. This series has seen them get held Under 100 points three times and now they aren't at home anymore. In Games #1 and #2 in Toronto, they were held to 95 and 94 points. Toronto has allowed no more than 96 points in seven of its last eight games, which is a remarkable achievement in the modern NBA. Going back to the final game of the regular season, the Under has hit in 9 of the Raptors previous 10 games. Despite the Under continuously hitting, often by comfortable margins, the oddsmakers still haven't dropped the total by nearly enough for Game 5. Expect Toronto to continue to play outstanding defense as there have been only two playoff games where the opposing team shot better than 40.2% from the field. One of those was the 76ers in Game 3, but that was in Philly. On the road, their points/game average drops by almost seven full points. Play UNDER Philadelphia-Toronto AAA |
|||||||
05-07-19 | Nationals v. Brewers UNDER 8 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Washington-Milwaukee Playing the Under here was a rare loss for us on Monday, but coming back with it is the right call. There has been a pitching change for Milwaukee. They will be going the "opener" route as originally scheduled starter Freddy Peralta has been terrible in the first inning (12.81 ERA). Peralta will pitch eventually in this game and we like the move by Brewers skipper Craig Counsell. Washington will go with Stephen Straburg and there's no reason to expect we won't be getting a strong outing from him. In his last three starts, Strasburg has a 1.25 ERA and 0.78 WHIP with 29 strikeouts. He's gone at least 6 2/3 innings in all three and never allowed more than two earned runs. Last night's game was a 5-3 Milwaukee win, just sneaking Over the total of 7.5. Be ready for an Under tonight though as we "get it back." The Brewers have given up three runs or less in six of their last eight games and every game in their last series went Under. The Nationals have gone Under in 5 of their last 7. Play UNDER Washington-Milwaukee AAA |
|||||||
05-07-19 | Angels v. Tigers OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER LA Angels-Detroit Unlike the other two games in this package, this is a series opener. The Angels and Tigers had Monday off. For the Angels, the day off was needed as they returned to the United States after a somewhat disastrous two game trip down to Mexico where they gave up 26 runs to the Astros. Before that, they'd won five in a row. Detroit managed to win its last game, in walkoff fashion, beating Kansas City 5-2, but that was after allowing 15 runs in a loss on Saturday. We expect lots of runs to be scored in this game as well, even if the distribution ends up being a little more even. Griffin Canning will be making only his second start for Los Angeles. The first was okay, but he lasted just 4 1/3 innings and still gave up three runs. Daniel Norris goes for the Tigers and he's lasted only five innings in each of his three turns. The respective workloads of the two starters lead us to believe we'll be seeing plenty of the bullpens here and that's a good thing for an Over bet seeing as Angels relievers have a 6.07 ERA/1.67 WHIP on the road while Tigers relievers have a 5.40 ERA/1.53 WHIP overall. Play OVER LA Angels-Detroit AAA |
|||||||
05-07-19 | Mariners v. Yankees OVER 9 | Top | 4-5 | Push | 0 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER Seattle-Yankees Seattle started the year like a house of fire, winning 13 of their first 15 games and putting up some incredible offensive numbers in the process. They hit at least one home run in 25 straight games, which is a new MLB record to start a season. Things have since screeched to a grinding halt at the plate, but that doesn't mean the Mariners aren't still an "Over team." The Over is 26-8-3 in their 37 games played this year as they are now giving up runs in bunches. The Yankees scored 7 on them yesterday. There was a point last week when they allowed 11 or more runs three times in a four-game stretch. One of those was started by Marco Gonzales, who lasted only 1 2/3 innings. This will be Gonzales first time starting since then. He'll be opposed by Masahiro Tanaka. Tanaka has definitely had the Mariners number in his career, but despite that and the fact Seattle only scored three runs yesterday, look for this one to still go Over. Seattle did score 10 runs on Sunday and still leads MLB with 70 home runs. Play OVER Seattle-Yankees AAA |
|||||||
05-06-19 | Warriors v. Rockets UNDER 221.5 | Top | 108-112 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Golden State-Houston Houston had to have Game #3 (we took them) and they came through with a 126-121 win in overtime, led by James Harden's (who else) 41 points. That win may ultimately be for naught if the Rockets don't win here as well, but this time we're keyed on the Under. Every game in the series has been close (decided by 6 pts or less). We are actually 3-0 in the series, winning with the Rockets in Games #1 (they covered plus the points) and #3. We also won with the Under in Game #1. The last two games have been pretty high scoring, which is what you'd expect when these teams play one another. But the Under is actually still 9-3 the previous 12 meetings and 19-8-1 in the Rockets' last 28 games overall. The Under is also 8-3 the last 11 times Golden State has been off a straight up loss. In the playoffs, Houston is only giving up an average of 103.6 points/game. Their scoring is also way down (108.7 points/game). A lot of that has to do with playing Utah, but note Game 3 was "only" 112-112 at the end of regulation. Play UNDER Golden State-Houston AAA |
|||||||
05-06-19 | Nationals v. Brewers UNDER 8 | Top | 3-5 | Push | 0 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on UNDER Washington-Milwaukee Seeing Max Scherzer with a 1-6 team start record is certainly something we're unaccustomed to, but it's the reality entering Monday's start in Milwaukee. The Washington ace really hasn't pitched that poorly, although he's definitely not been up to the usual Scherzer standard. His WHIP is a very respectable 1.17 though. Even though the Nationals have lost his last two starts, both were quality efforts from Scherzer as he went seven innings and allowed three runs or less each time. Strikeout numbers are still good. So we expect Scherzer to pitch well in this spot tonight. He has a 2.40 ERA in eight career games vs. Milwaukee. The problem lately for Washington has been scoring runs as an injury-depleted lineup has been held to three runs or less in 8 of its last 10 games. Milwaukee is off a series (three-game sweep of the Mets) where every game stayed Under. The Under is 6-1 this year with tonight's starter (Chacin) on the mound. Chacin has pitched better at home so far and has a 2.88 ERA in 10 career starts vs. the Nationals. Play UNDER Washington-Milwaukee AAA |
|||||||
05-06-19 | Bruins v. Blue Jackets UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER Boston-Columbus The Bruins will be looking to close out the Blue Jackets Monday, but to do so they'll have to win in Columbus. This is the first time facing elimination for the Jackets in these playoffs as they of course pulled off a stunning first round sweep of top seed Tampa Bay. Boston was taken to a Game 7 in Round 1 by Toronto, but this time it's a little different as they enter Game 6 on the road up 3-2 in the series, rather than down. Game 7 (if necessary) is in Boston, so the Bruins have that ace in the hole. The first four games of the series were all Unders before Boston won Game 5 by a score of 4-3. With the stakes even higher tonight, this should go back to being a low-scoring series. Both goalies have been great so far. Boston's Tuuka Rask has a .932 save percentage in the playoffs and is above that number in this series. For Columbus, Sergei Bobrovsky isn't far behind with a .928 postseason save percentage. Both of these teams have seen far more Unders than Overs this season, so the way this series has played out should not be shocking to anyone. The Under is 11-3 the last 14 times Columbus has been favored on the money line. Play UNDER Boston-Columbus AAA |
|||||||
05-06-19 | Bucks v. Celtics -1.5 | Top | 113-101 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on BOSTON Boston may have looked like the better team in Game 1, but since then Milwaukee has taken control of the series with back to back wins where they scored 123 points. The Celtics shot poorly in both losses, but we'll back them here in a must win spot in Game 4 at home. You not only have to expect better shooting here, but better defense as well. Yes, the Bucks were #1 in the league in scoring in the regular season and have had their way offensively the last two games. But the three-point shooting we've seen from them in the last two games is bound to "taper off." They were north of 40 percent from behind the arc in Games #2 and #3, going 35 of 84. That's high volume, which is not new for them, but the percentage and number of makes is more than usual. There have been only four times all season where Boston has lost three or more straight games. All we have to do here is basically lay a bucket in order for them to avoid doing so in what is obviously their biggest game all year. They've lost consecutive home games just twice all season. Play on BOSTON AAA |
|||||||
05-05-19 | Nuggets +3 v. Blazers | Top | 116-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on DENVER Nobody wants to lose in the NBA Playoffs, but going down in four overtimes is particularly gut-wrenching. As difficult to "swallow" as Game 3's loss may be for Denver, we like them to bounce back on Sunday. We did have the Nuggets in Game #3 and sure enough they did cover for us, losing by only three points (140-137) as a 4.5-point underdog. Obviously, Friday's game going four overtimes is going to have an effect on both teams here. At least it's a night game, so there will be about 48 hours to recover. Portland is 0-4 ATS off its last four SU wins here in the playoffs. The underdog has also gone 5-2 ATS the past seven meetings between them and Denver. The Nuggets are 4-0 ATS their last four visits to the Moda Center. They've also been the ones to cover five of the last seven meetings and the only two exceptions were Game 2 (shot poorly) and a game back in January where they won by three, but were caught laying -4.5. Take the points. Play on DENVER AAA |
|||||||
05-05-19 | Raptors v. 76ers -1.5 | Top | 101-96 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on PHILADELPHIA The line has jumped the fence for Game 4 (Philly now favored). While that might mean "less value" on the 76ers, it also means public sentiment has now clearly swung against the Raptors, a team whose past playoff failings may be set to catch up with them again. The 76ers obviously outplayed the Raptors in Game 3, beating them 116-95 and looking like a completely different team on offense than what we saw in the first two games. Perhaps that should have been something we all saw coming as the Sixers do average 118.5 points/game at home, which is noticeably higher than their scoring average on the road (which is just 111.8 points/game). You won't be surprised to learn that the results have been much better for Philly at home compared to the road. At home, they have gone 34-11 and outscored opponents by 8.6 points/game. On the road, they have gone just 23-22 while actually being outscored over the course of the season. Philly has gone 6-1 straight up and against the spread since losing Game 1 in the first round. The line jumping the fence is also notable because the favorite has covered in 21 of the previous 30 meetings. The home team has covered seven of the last nine. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
|||||||
05-05-19 | Blue Jays v. Rangers -126 | Top | 2-10 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on TEXAS After taking a hard-luck 1-0 loss on Friday (game went 12 innings), the Rangers came back and beat the Blue Jays 8-5 last night. They jumped all over Toronto starter Pannone, scoring seven times off him in just 2 1/3 innings. Today, they hope for similar results against Clay Buchholz, whose best days are pretty clearly behind him. Buchholz is still winless after four starts, though the team has gone 2-2. But Toronto has lost the last two and Buchholz hasn't made it past the fifth in any of the last three. The Blue Jays aren't a strong hitting team either, averaging just 4.0 rpg on the year. There's only been one time where they have scored more than five runs in the last nine games. Also winless in four starts is Rangers lefty Drew Smyly. The only difference with him is the team has lost all four times. He's also not made it very deep into games. But at least Smyly has an offense that can adequately support him. Texas is averaging 6.1 runs scored in home games this year. Buchholz is 0-4 lifetime in this park with a 6.00 ERA. Smyly has a 2.76 ERA in 10 career appearances vs. Toronto. Play on TEXAS AAA |
|||||||
05-05-19 | Braves v. Marlins UNDER 7.5 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 9 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on UNDER Atlanta-Miami No team has scored fewer runs this season than Miami. They have just 90 in 32 games, which means less than three per game and they've stayed true to that form in this series vs. the Braves where both games have seen them score just twice. But both games have gone Over due to Atlanta scoring as the Braves have been one of the highest scoring teams in the National League. Thus, this game would normally set up as a mismatch, but don't be shocked if/when Miami starter Lopez keeps his team in this one. Lopez has a 3.18 ERA and 0.941 WHIP in his last three starts. That he gave up four runs his last time on the mound seems pretty unfair seeing as he allowed only three hits. What's really crazy about Lopez's starts though is how few runs Miami has scored. They've been shutout in three of them and scored just four total in the last five! All five starts have gone Under. Braves starter Teheran shouldn't have much trouble keeping the Marlins bats in check here. Take away the three home runs he allowed vs. San Diego on Tuesday and Teheran actually pitched pretty well in his last outing. Play UNDER Atlanta-Miami AAA |
|||||||
05-04-19 | Avalanche v. Sharks -130 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on SAN JOSE Time for the Sharks to wrest control of this series for good. They have won Games #1 and #3, only for Colorado to tie the series up with a win in the following games (#2 and #4). But San Jose still has the home ice edge and that's going to be important here in Game #5. The Sharks are 29-18 in all home games this season and they average an impressive 3.7 goals/game at "The Tank," one of the best marks in the league. Colorado is only 20-26 SU on the road. The Sharks were blanked 3-0 in Game 4. Sound familiar? They were also shutout in Game #4 of the last series, losing 5-0 to Vegas. They came back and won the next three games, including a five-goal effort in Game 5. This time the Sharks don't need to win three in a row, just two. In the regular season, San Jose was shutout just four times. They came back and won the next game after three of those four occasions. Play on SAN JOSE AAA |
|||||||
05-04-19 | Warriors v. Rockets -3.5 | Top | 121-126 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on HOUSTON This is obviously as close to must win as it gets for Houston. No team has ever come back from an 0-3 deficit to win a series. But lots of teams have won when down 0-2 and they return home. That's the situation for the Rockets here. The good news is James Harden is fine after sustaining an eye injury in Game #2. Despite missing time, Harden still had his best shooting night of any playoff game. It's not as if the Rockets were outclassed in either game at Golden State. Both losses were by just six points. Remember that they took three of four from the Warriors in the regular season and were up three games to two in last year's Western Conference Final. They beat Golden State both times here at home in the regular season. They're also 7-1-1 ATS the last 9 home games. They won the three first round home games by a combined 59 points. The Warriors have failed to cover off any of their last five ATS wins. They are also 1-6 ATS off their last 7 SU wins. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
|||||||
05-04-19 | Red Sox -161 v. White Sox | Top | 15-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on BOSTON This week has seen us call for a Red Sox resurgence and they've delivered in kind by going 4-1 the last five games. They swept Oakland earlier in the week, at home, and then after a walkoff loss in the opener here in Chicago, it was an easy 6-1 win. That was Chris Sale's first victory of 2019. We'll back Boston again in this spot as the Sox of a different color are no match for them. Now we know that Eduardo Rodriguez has yet to be an effective starter this season for Boston. However, he's never lost in three previous starts against the White Sox. Chicago is still giving up over 6.0 runs/game at home too. Only two teams give up more runs in home games and they are Colorado (Coors Field) and Baltimore (worst team in baseball). Boston easily could be on a five-game win streak heading into this game and they should "get to" White Sox starter Banuelos, who has made only two starts so far and both were against Baltimore. This is a big step up. Play on BOSTON AAA |
|||||||
05-04-19 | Mariners v. Indians OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 102 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Seattle-Cleveland We had the Under when these teams met Friday. That was an easy winner with the Indians winning 2-1 in walkoff fashion on Tyler Naquin's pinch-hit single that came with two outs in the bottom of the ninth. Cleveland is now 4-0 vs. Seattle this season. After starting the year by winning 13 of their first 15 games, the Mariners are really on a downward slide right now. They've lost 14 of 19 and in five of the last seven games, they've scored 0 or 1 run. But the Over is still 23-8-3 in all of their games and we expect them to rediscover some of that "lost" offense today against Cleveland's Carlos Carrasco. Carrasco has given up four or more runs in half of his starts so far. Seattle has still scored the most runs in all of baseball with 190 in 34 games. They've also hit 61 home runs, tied for the major league lead. Unfortunately, it doesn't help them that they have Mike Leake pitching today. Leake arrives in poor form, having delivering a 5.82 ERA and 1.588 WHIP his last three turns in the rotation. The Over is 3-0 when he starts on the road this season. He gave up nine runs in his last start. Much different game than last night. Play OVER Seattle-Cleveland AAA |
|||||||
05-03-19 | Nuggets +4 v. Blazers | Top | 137-140 | Win | 100 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on DENVER Coming into this series, we said that home court advantage would play a big role, just like it did in the Nuggets' first round series against the Spurs. There, Denver did drop Game 1 at home, but won its next three at the Pepsi Center and wound up advancing after the series went a full seven games. Despite a quick turnaround between series, Denver was able to beat Portland in Game #1, 121-113. But then they lost Game #2, 97-90, so we're all squared up going back to Portland. Homecourt is still important, but it's difficult to imagine Denver playing any worse than it did in Game #2. They shot jut 34.7% overall and were a hideous 6 of 29 from behind the three-point line. They even missed 10 of 26 free throw attempts. We like them getting points in Game #3 as they have covered five of their last seven trips here and they are 6-2-1 ATS the last nine matchups with Portland, no matter the location. Play on DENVER AAA |
|||||||
05-03-19 | Stars v. Blues -138 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -138 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on ST. LOUIS We've had St. Louis in both of their wins in this series and will look to make it 3 for 3 tonight in Game 5. With the series tied up at 2-2, this is a very important game as one of the teams will be put on the brink of elimination for the first time in these playoffs. The Blues have won all four times this postseason they've been tied in a series (This includes both Game 1's.) They have not performed as well as you'd think at home, going just 2-3 SU here in the playoffs. But they've still won 16 of their last 21 games here in the Gateway City. When the opponent gave up two goals or less the last game, St. Louis has gone 22-5 its last 27. Obviously here, they are facing the same team. But the Stars are unlikely to replicate Game 4's four goal effort, just like they were unable to replicate Game 2's 4-goal effort. After all, the regular season saw them score the fourth fewest number of goals. Game 2 was also the last time Dallas allowed two goals or less. They promptly lost Game 3 by a score of 4-3. Look for the Blues to maintain home ice advantage with a big win on Friday. Play on ST. LOUIS AAA |
|||||||
05-03-19 | Red Sox -187 v. White Sox | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 6* play on BOSTON Terrible loss for Boston last night as a three-run HR by the White Sox Nicky Delmonico ended the game. The Red Sox went into the bottom of the ninth up 4-3, an advantage they'd held since going up in the top of the seventh. The loss came on the heels of a three-game sweep of Oakland, which was at home, but Boston had an edge going into yesterday in that the White Sox had just played a doubleheader on Wednesday. We expect the Red Sox to bounce back in a major way Friday with Chris Sale on the mound. Shockingly, Sale has yet to win a game this year. He's 0-5 in six starts with a 6.30 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. Not like him at all, but who better for him to turn it around against than his former team? Obviously, Sale is accustomed to dominating in this park. Can't say the same for White Sox starter Lopez, who brings a 6.33 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in four home starts into tonight's game. Boston is 25-8 the last 33 times it has been priced north of -175 on the road. Chicago is 7-29 the L36 times it has been priced north of +175 at home. Play on BOSTON AAA |
|||||||
05-03-19 | Mets v. Brewers UNDER 9 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Mets-Milwaukee You can't get any lower scoring than the Mets last two games, each of which were 1-0 finals. They won one and lost one, the win coming yesterday thanks to a tremendous outing from Noah Syndergaard. The loss was started by Jacob deGrom. Tonight's starter Steven Matz doesn't have the resume of those two starters, but we expect him to pitch well in this spot. Matz's overall numbers remain heavily skewed due to one terrible effort against the Phillies. But the other five starts have all seen him allow no more than three runs. Matz's last two starts have seen him go 13 innings while allowing only three runs. Meanwhile, Milwaukee just gave up 22 runs the last two days in a pair of losses to Colorado (11 each game). That shouldn't continue here seeing how few runs the Mets have scored recently. They have put just 22 runs on the road in the last eight games. So look for a quality start here from Brandon Woodruff, who gave up just one run in five innings when he faced the Mets last week. In that same series, Matz went seven innings and allowed just two runs on five hits. Play UNDER Mets-Milwaukee AAA |
|||||||
05-03-19 | Mariners v. Indians UNDER 8 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on UNDER Seattle-Cleveland The Indians were dealt a big blow in the last 48 hours when Corey Kluber was struck with a line drive, breaking his right arm. We'll see how that affects them moving forward, but another issue the club is dealing with is an inability to consistently score runs. They've scored three runs or less in six of the last eight games and are hitting only .215 as a team. That's the lowest team BA in the American League. Seattle is near the top of most offensive categories, but they seem to be running on fumes now after losing seven of nine. They're batting just .202 the last 18 games. The last four games have seen them get outscored 46-7! They were swept at home by the Indians just a couple of weeks ago. Two struggling offenses should result in an Under in this game, even with neither starter possessing overwhelmingly great numbers. But Shane Bieber got the job done for Cleveland at Seattle in that last series, limiting them to one run and four hits. For the Mariners, Kikuchi has allowed more than 3 ER in just two starts. He'll stop the bleeding in terms of runs allowed, but we don't expect much scoring here from Seattle either. Play UNDER Seattle-Cleveland AAA |
|||||||
05-02-19 | Raptors -1 v. 76ers | Top | 95-116 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on TORONTO Toronto and Philadelphia had very similar Round 1 experiences. Both lost their respective Game 1's, on their home floor. But then both bounced back to win the next four games and advance. Toronto did so with defense, holding Orlando to an average of 89 points/game in the four wins. Philadelphia did so more with offense, averaging 127.5 points/game vs. Brooklyn. Through two games, this second round series has more closely resembled Toronto's style of play. The Sixers have failed to score 100 points in either game, though they did take Game 2 in Toronto by a score of 94-89. That was their first win in 15 tries up in Canada. Now we move to the City of Brotherly Love. While the 76ers may now have homecourt advantage, we believe the Raptors are still the better team. Philly is a little banged up in the frontcourt as both Joel Embiid and Mike Scott continue to battle injuries. The Raptors have now allowed fewer than 100 points in six straight games. We expect players such as Danny Green and Marc Gasol to play a lot better than they did in Game 2. Those two combined to make only 2 of 14 field goal attempts and the Raptors bench totaled only five points on 2 of 11 shooting. Should be a much better team effort tonight. Toronto is still on a 14-5 ATS run vs. Philadelphia and the last time they dropped back to back games ATS was late March (10-4 ATS overall since). Play on TORONTO AAA |
|||||||
05-02-19 | Red Sox -170 v. White Sox | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -170 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on BOSTON It was just a couple of days ago that we predicted the Red Sox would start to break out from what had been a terribly disappointing start to the 2019 season. Sure enough, they just swept a three-game series from Oakland. We had them in the first two games before laying off yesterday afternoon. They outscored the A's 21-8. Now the Sox hit the road for the weekend, but it'll be Chicago and the White Sox aren't likely to measure up. The White Sox ended April by winning three in a row, but May began with a doubleheader that they split with Baltimore. Playing a doubleheader yesterday puts them at a slight disadvantage right off the bat today. So too does facing a red hot David Price. After a rough start to the year, Price has settled down with a 2.00 ERA and 0.944 WHIP in his last three starts. He's allowed only four runs in 18 innings and has 24 strikeouts. Compare that to the numbers of Chicago's Lucas Giolito, who has a 6.75 ERA and 1.75 WHIP in his last three trips to the mound. The White Sox give up 6.3 runs per game at home. They have lost the last six time Giolito has started at Guaranteed Rate Field. Boston is 12-1 in Price's previous 13 starts vs teams that have a losing record. Play on BOSTON AAA |
|||||||
05-02-19 | Bruins v. Blue Jackets OVER 5 | Top | 4-1 | Push | 0 | 26 h 8 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on OVER Boston-Columbus The scrappy Columbus Blue Jackets now lead the Bruins 2 games to 1 in this best of seven series. It's been a nice rally from the Jackets after dropping Game #1 in Boston. Of course, what else should we have expected. This is a team that stunned the hockey universe by sweeping a historically great Tampa Bay team (won 62 regular season games) in Round #1. No matter who's won in this series, every game has gone Under. Game #3, won 2-1 by Columbus, was the lowest scoring to date. What's interesting about the series being 3-0 Under is that there have been a lot of shots on goal, a little over 70 per game to be exact. Tip your cap to the two goaltenders then as Tuukka Rask and Sergei Bobrovsky have really done their jobs. But I think Game 4 will be the highest scoring of the series. Can Bobrovsky really maintain his high level of play, moving forward? He has a .937 save percentage so far in the playoffs. He was tied for only 16th in goals against average in the regular season and was 21st in goals against average. Play OVER Boston-Columbus AAA |
|||||||
05-02-19 | Rays v. Royals UNDER 8 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 12 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Tampa Bay-Kansas City Shockingly, the Royals were able to sweep Wednesday's doubleheader from the Rays. That result is in no way indicative of how the two teams have started the season. Kansas City is still only 11-20 on the year and in last place in the AL Central. Tampa Bay is 19-11 and still leads the AL East. The Rays had also gone 10-1 vs. KC since the start of last season before losing two yesterday. Maybe they get their revenge today, but look for the Under to definitely hit. A big reason why the Rays are in first place is their pitching, which is tied for the Major League lead in runs allowed. Charlie Morton goes today and not only is he unbeaten (3-0) in six starts, he has a 1.72 ERA in his three road starts. Now the Rays were only able to score two runs in both games Wednesday, which is obviously a problem. Danny Duffy will make just his second start of 2019 here after coming off the disabled list. He was OK on Friday as he allowed three runs in five innings. We expect him to be better today. Duffy has a 2.90 ERA in five career starts vs. Tampa Bay. In those five starts, he has 37 strikeouts and only eight walks in 31 innings pitched. Play UNDER Tampa Bay-Kansas City AAA |
|||||||
05-01-19 | Blazers v. Nuggets OVER 219 | Top | 97-90 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
analysis coming |
|||||||
05-01-19 | Reds v. Mets -172 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -172 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
analysis coming |
|||||||
05-01-19 | Islanders v. Hurricanes -118 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on CAROLINA What a difference one series has made for the Islanders. In the first round, they took the first two games on the road en route to a surprising sweep of the favored Penguins. Now in Round 2, they're down 0-2 to the underdog Hurricanes, having dropped Games #1 and #2 on home ice. Carolina has won four in a row dating back to its first round series with Washington, the last three wins all coming on the road, including a Game 7 win in double overtime. This will be our first time backing either side in the series, though we did win with the Under in Game 1, which was as easy as it gets considering it was a scoreless tie at the end of regulation. The Hurricanes have given up just one goal in the series and now return home where they've yet to lose in the playoffs (3-0). In the three home games vs. the Capitals, they allowed just three goals. The big story for Game 3 is that the Canes will be starting Curtis McElhinney in place of Petr Mrazek in goal due to the latter sustaining a lower body injury. But it hardly matters as Carolina is the better team here and McElhinney posted near identical numbers to Mrazek in the regular season. Play on CAROLINA AAA |
|||||||
05-01-19 | Cardinals v. Nationals OVER 7.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER St. Louis-Washington Max Scherzer is from St. Louis, so getting to face the Cardinals will always hold a special meaning for him. But the bottom line is that in 2019 Scherzer has not looked like the same pitcher we're used to seeing. His first month of the season produced a 1-5 team start record as well as a 4.12 ERA. That the Nationals are 0-4 at home with him on the mound is really surprising. Now Scherzer has pitched better in D.C. than his record would suggest. He's also still striking out plenty of hitters. Regardless of how well Scherzer pitches Wednesday, we feel this game is set to go Over due to the Nationals hitters facing Miles Mikolas, who has not been very sharp for the Cardinals. Six starts have brought a 5.29 ERA for Mikolas and the Over is 5-1. The road is where he's been at his worst as the Over is 3-0 and he has a 6.60 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. In three games vs. Washington, Mikokas has a 6.43 ERA. Both offenses are averaging more than 5.0 runs/game this season. This should be an easy Over as St. Louis is 14-3 Over after giving up two runs or less in its last game. Play OVER St. Louis-Washington AAA |
|||||||
05-01-19 | Tigers v. Phillies UNDER 8 | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Detroit-Philadelphia This is going to be a low-scoring affair. For starters, Detroit doesn't bring much offense to the table. They are last in the American League in runs scored. Put them in a National League park where they can't use the designated hitter and you have to figure that they'll really struggle to put runs on the road. Sure enough, they scored only three times last night, but that was enough for a win over the Phillies. Holding Philly to just one run again might prove difficult, but we think we can count on yet another rough day at the plate for the visitors. The Phillies are heavy favorites Wednesday and if they can get to the ninth with a lead, that will chop off half an inning. Seven of the Phillies last nine games have seen the losing side held to 0 or 1 run. Off their last two losses, they came back and delivered a win in shutout fashion. Tonight's starter Aaron Nola gave up just one run in his last start and his two best outings of the year were both here at home. Tigers starter Norris is just two starts removed from tossing five shutout innings. He's given up two runs or less in three of his last five starts. Play UNDER Detroit-Philadelphia AAA |
|||||||
04-30-19 | Sharks v. Avalanche UNDER 6 | Top | 4-2 | Push | 0 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER San Jose-Colorado This series is tied up at one game apiece after the Avalanche won a wild Game 2 that saw four goals scored in the last 10 minutes (2 per side). After falling behind early, the Avs twice led by as many as two goals. It was their first time beating the Sharks in five tries this season. Now the series goes to Denver where the Avs have won 13 of 16. While Game #3 seemingly sets up well for the home team, the Under looks like the better (and safer) call. Game 2 certainly "should have" been an Under as it was a 2-1 game with just under 10 minutes to go. The goal that sent the game Over came on a Sharks power play in the final minute when they had a two-man advantage. It was the second goal scored in the game's final 62 seconds. San Jose's goals per game average drops on the road, which isn't surprising, but the fact Colorado's goals per game average stays the same at home (vs. the road) is notable. With every meeting this season resulting in an Over, it's time for an Under. The Under is 4-1 in San Jose's last five road games. Play UNDER San Jose-Colorado AAA |
|||||||
04-30-19 | Blue Jays v. Angels -141 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on LA ANGELS The Angels aren't a good team, but we've kind of had our "finger on the pulse" when it comes to taking them, if the situation calls for it. The situation calls for it here as they open a three-game series at home vs. Toronto. The Blue Jays are ripe for a letdown after sweeping Oakland for a second time this season. The latest sweep was at home over the weekend, but two of the three wins came in the final at-bat. That last series also saw Vlad Guerrero Jr finally make his big league debut. This series will be a homecoming of sorts for the Blue Jays top prospect as his father used to play in this stadium. However, while the Blue Jays may have swept the A's, Guerrero Jr was just 3 for 12 at the plate. Him being on the roster seems to have overvalued Toronto. The key rookie in this game may actually be Angels starting pitcher Griffin Canning, who makes his first start for the big league club. Canning was outstanding for Triple A, giving up just one run in 16 innings. All Toronto can offer up is the aging Clay Buchholz, who has a 4.60 ERA in three starts. Play on LA ANGELS AAA |
|||||||
04-30-19 | Celtics v. Bucks UNDER 220 | Top | 102-123 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER Boston-Milwaukee Boston came out and took Game 1 from Milwaukee, winning 112-90 as eight-point underdogs. They held the Bucks, who lead the league in scoring mind you, to 34.8 percent shooting. That's quite impressive as is the fact the Celtics have now won and covered six straight going back to the final game of the regular season. But we don't expect the visitors to shoot the ball as well in Game #2 as they did in Game #1. Sunday saw Kyrie Irving and company sink 54% of their total shot attempts, including 13 of 31 from three-point range. That's a lot of 3-pt attempts too, far more than we're accustomed to seeing from Boston. To avoid falling into a dangerous 0-2 series hole, Milwaukee must not only fix its shooting woes from Game #1, but also its play on the defensive end. The latter component shouldn't be that hard as the Bucks were #1 in the league in defensive efficiency during the regular season. They held the Pistons, an admittedly inferior team compared to the Celtics, to 98 points/game in Round 1. Boston has allowed fewer than 100 points in four of its five playoff games. Play UNDER Boston-Milwaukee AAA |
|||||||
04-30-19 | A's v. Red Sox -154 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on BOSTON We had the Red Sox yesterday (they won 9-4) and our view that this is a series where they'll get "back on track" (whether it be temporarily or permanently) remains unchanged. Tuesday's starter Rick Porcello has been pretty bad so far this year, but Oakland's Aaron Brooks hasn't been any better. The Athletics are 0-4 so far priced between +125 and +175 on the road and that's where we find them today. They've dropped four in a row, all on the road, and this is a team clearly searching for answers right now. The A's did take an early 4-0 lead on Monday, but an error-filled 3rd inning led to a six-run rally for Boston. That one inning may be all that the Red Sox need to get things pointed in the right direction here. Brooks has given up a total of six home runs in his last four starts for Oakland, who is 19-46 in their last 65 games played at Fenway Park. Play on BOSTON AAA |
|||||||
04-29-19 | Blazers v. Nuggets -4 | Top | 113-121 | Win | 100 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on DENVER Denver dropped Game 1 of the last series (vs. San Antonio), but we don't see that happening here. Like the Spurs series, home court advantage figures to play a key role here in Round 2 vs. Portland. The Nuggets had the best home record in the league during the regular season and are now 37-8 straight up at the Pepsi Center. The got "backdoored" in Game 7 by San Antonio, winning by only four in a game they were favored to win by 6.5 points. But don't let that unlucky ATS result cloud the fact they led that game by double digits most of the way. Denver plays a lot better defense at home too. They gave up only 86 points in Game 7 after giving up only 90 in Game 5. For the year, they give up just 102.9 points per game at home, which is more than seven points less than what they give up on the road. Portland isn't quite as subpar as San Antonio on the road, but the Blazers record away from home is only 22-21. The Nuggets were 3-1 against the Blazers in the regular season, although every game was close. But the only time they lost to them was in the second game of a home and home, in Portland. The Trail Blazers are just 1-5-1 ATS the past seven meetings and they now have a problem in the frontcourt. Jusuf Nurkic is already out for the year and now Enes Kanter is dealing with a separated shoulder. Play on DENVER AAA |
|||||||
04-29-19 | Blues +104 v. Stars | Top | 4-3 | Win | 104 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on ST. LOUIS The Blues never trailed in Game 1 even though they got off only 20 shots. Now 35-13-4 straight up since January 2nd (when they were last in the division and had the fewest number of points in the league!), we think this team is peaking at the right time. We'd figured they'd take both games at home as they came into Game 2 at 15-4 the L19 times as a home favorite. But alas, they did not. They lost Game 2 by a score of 4-2 and now head back to Dallas needing one win in the next two games to recapture the home ice advantage. We look for them to get that one win tonight. When the opponent gave up two goals or less the last game, St. Louis has gone 21-5 its last 26. Obviously here, they are facing the same team. But the Stars are unlikely to replicate Game 2's four goal effort. After all, the regular season saw them score the fourth fewest number of goals. As you might have guessed, among playoff teams, they easily scored the fewest. We think that inability to score consistently will end up biting them here. Play on ST. LOUIS AAA |
|||||||
04-29-19 | Astros v. Twins OVER 8 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Houston-Minnesota Minnesota just hit 12 home runs in a three-game sweep over the weekend. Of course, they had the luxury of facing a Baltimore pitching staff that is bad as any in baseball. It won't be as easy to start the week as they are going up against Houston, beginning with Justin Verlander occupying the mound Monday. But the Twins are at home at least. And this time it won't be them having to do all the scoring for Over bettors. The Astros are off a hard fought four-game split with Cleveland, which ended with a 4-1 win last night. But when they faced the Twins last week, they scored 22 runs in three games. Verlander has obviously been great in 2019 as was anticipated. He held Minnesota's lineup to 1 run and 4 hits in a win last week. But the Twins still average 5.7 runs per game for the year and should be able to put more on the board here in their home park. Jake Odorizzi has been surprisingly good for Minny, but Monday's starter is also at the disadvantage of facing the opponent for the second time in a week. The Over is 5-1 the last six times Odorizzi has started a series opener. The Twins have scored 55 runs in the last eight games. Play OVER Houston-Minnesota AAA |
|||||||
04-29-19 | A's v. Red Sox -140 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on BOSTON By their standard, the Red Sox have endured a terrible start to the season. Remember that at this time last year, they were 21-7. The club would finish up 52.5 units in 2018 and of course win the World Series. Fast forward to the present and they are just 11-17 and the worst bet in all of MLB. They dropped to 0-5 in Chris Sale starts yesterday, losing to the Rays 5-2. But - even if it's only temporary - there should be a turnaround this week at Fenway vs. Oakland. The A's aren't exactly playing well right now either. They just got swept for a second time this year by the Blue Jays. Sunday's loss was an 11-inning affair, the second time in three games they lost in walkoff fashion. Both Monday starters have pitched well of late as Oakland's Montas is 3-0 with a 3.50 ERA his last three starts and Boston's Rodriguez is 2-0 his last three with a 3.00 ERA. But we'll lean on the fact both of Rodriguez's starts at home have gone quite well. He's allowed just three runs and five hits in 12 2/3 innings. Play on BOSTON AAA |
|||||||
04-28-19 | Indians v. Astros -116 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on HOUSTON The series may not have started well for the Astros, but they now have a chance to earn a split with the Indians tonight on ESPN. After dropping the first two games, by scores of 2-1 and 6-3, they were able to pull out a win in 10 innings yesterday, 4-3. They may have gotten only five hits, but the big one was Tony Kemp's walkoff HR. The 'Stros have what appears to be a considerable edge in starting pitching tonight as Wade Miley goes against Carlos Carrasco. Miley has a 3.58 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in his five starts while Carrasco has struggled with a 6.00 ERA and 1.52 WHIP. Carrasco was better in his last two starts, but has twice allowed six runs on the road. Cleveland has not been good offensively this year and the road has given them real trouble when it comes to putting runs on the board. The Indians are batting only .201 when not playing at Progressive Field. Houston is 9-3 at Minute Maid Park. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
|||||||
04-28-19 | Rangers v. Mariners UNDER 8.5 | Top | 14-1 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on UNDER Texas-Seattle Seattle got clubbed yesterday, losing 15-1 to Texas. That was a case of getting a taste of its own medicine as the Mariners are the team used to putting a bunch of runs on the board. They lead the majors with 183 runs scored. But scoring over six runs per contest is a pace no team is going to be able to maintain. For the sake of comparison, only four teams averaged 5.0 runs/game last season. We have already seen the Mariners begin to taper off as they've been held to three runs or less in three of their past five ballgames. The Over is still 20-7-3 in all games, but that is going to start changing as the offense slowly begins to regress. They are also not going to be giving up anywhere close to the number of runs they allowed Saturday. Texas had not topped five runs in the last week before scoring 15 times yesterday. Starting today for the Mariners will be Erik Swanson. While 0-2, he has a 0.77 WHIP. Lance Lynn goes for the Rangers. He was hit hard by Oakland in his most recent start, but had given up two runs or less in each of three starts prior to that one. The under is 4-1 the last five times Texas has been off a win. Play UNDER Texas-Seattle AAA |
|||||||
04-28-19 | Rockets +6 v. Warriors | Top | 100-104 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on HOUSTON It's a familiar matchup on the Western Conference side of the draw, only this year the Rockets and Warriors are playing a round earlier. Last year, the Rockets took the Warriors to the brink of elimination and had a lead at home in Game 7 before wilting. Remember they also didn't have Chris Paul for the final two games of that series. Houston may not have the home court advantage this time around, but they do have Paul back in the lineup and come in as the hotter team. While Golden State surprisingly needed six games to eliminate the Clippers in the first round, the Rockets vanquished the Jazz in just five and are now 10-2 SU/9-3 ATS the past 12 games. One of the two straight up losses was by one point (regular season finale). The Warriors have not been a good team to bet on this season and they are 17-26-1 ATS at home. Taking the points in Game 1 looks to be the way to go. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
|||||||
04-28-19 | Rockets v. Warriors UNDER 224.5 | Top | 100-104 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on UNDER Houston-Golden State Last year's Western Conference Finals between the Rockets and Warriors resulted in far more Unders (5) than Overs (1). It was a seven-game series remember (Game 1 total pushed) and the Rockets had a 3-2 series lead before Chris Paul was lost to a hamstring injury. The Under trend continued in the regular season with three of four games games going that way. It's not as if the two teams have something against scoring, it's that their respective reputations have led to consistently high totals. It's usually a hard fought game when they play with more defense being played than the public thinks. Houston won three of the four regular season games, holding Golden State under its season average three times, the exception being an overtime game. The Rockets have gotten a lot better defensively down the stretch as well. They just held Utah to an average of 97.8 points and 40.0% shooting in the first round series. The Under is 16-5 the last 21 times they have played Golden State and 21-8-1 their last 30 games overall. We expect Golden State to defend reasonably well here as well. Play UNDER Houston-Golden State AAA |