This is an 8* play on the ANGELS

The Angels were able to come from behind and "steal one" from the White Sox last night, which has them in an excellent position to win two straight here in Chicago. LA came into this series in pretty rough shape as they'd just been swept in Oakland to fall to a season-low 11 games below .500. They found themselves down early to the White Sox last night and they were facing a 4-1 deficit as last as the seventh inning. But they were able to storm back against the embattled White Sox bullpen for the 5-4 victory. They were underdogs on the money line last night, but that's changed for tonight, likely due to the starting pitching matchup. Friday, they had to face the White Sox best pitcher, Lucas Giolito. Tonight it's Dylan Covey, who is not having a good season at all. Covey is 1-6 in 10 starts and has a 7.17 ERA/1.57 WHIP. The White Sox have lost his last four starts and he has a 21.59 ERA and 2.55 WHIP in the last three (no joke!). Andrew Heaney has done a pretty good job pitching for the Angels of late with a 2.37 ERA his last three starts. Back in July, he held Chicago to three runs in seven innings. Play on LA ANGELS

AAA

This is a 10* play on BARBOZA

Edson Barboza should make quick work of Paul Felder in the semi-main of UFC 242. These lightweights met four years ago wih Barboza winning a unanimous decision. We don't see how the rematch goes any differently, with the possible exception of a Barboza finish. While we do have to concede the fact Barboza has lost three of his last four fights, this one is a step down in class. Barboza remains one of the division's best at 155 lbs and has some of the best leg striking anywhere. His more aggressive opponents have been able to derail his attack somewhat, but that's not Felder. At one point, Felder's time in the UFC looked like it was coming to an end. But a win over Daron Cruickshank (a fight he was losing at one point) begat a 6-2 run for him. Still, there's not much reason to believe he stands a chance in this rematch. Play EDSON BARBOZA

AAA

This is an 8* play on MISSISSIPPI STATE

Mississippi State is expected to take a step back this season. They lost a lot of talent (to the NFL) from a defense that allowed just 13.2 points/game a year ago. It doesn't help that they have two holdovers currently suspended as well. Last week, they gave up 28 points to a Louisiana Lafayette team that quite frankly isn't very good. 28 points was the most allowed in any game by MSU last year. They allowed more than 20 just two times. But on the bright side, the defense forced five turnovers last week, the offense scored 38 points and the team won. We look for the defense to play a lot better this week against Southern Miss. Something to consider is that last week's game was played in New Orleans. Mississippi State is 11-3 ATS its last 14 games in Starkville. Southern Miss played a tune-up game against Alcorn State, but that will hardly have them ready for this step up in class. The Golden Eagles only could run for 96 yards on 31 carries and thus actually lost the time of possession battle. If they can't push around an FCS opponent, how are they going to get a surge against a SEC defense? The answer is "they won't."  Play on MISSISSIPPI STATE

AAA

This is an 8* on PITT

Ohio might not be a program you pay much attention to, but the Bobcats have achieved plenty of success in the 15 years Frank Solich has been here in Athens. Solich is actually the third longest tenured head coach in College Football, trailing only Gary Patterson (19 years) at TCU and Kirk Ferentz (21 years). The Bobcats have actually gotten some run as the team to come out of the Group of Five this year, but this week's game is one of two where they'll definitely be the underdog (the other is next week's game at Marshall). The key to this team is QB Nathan Rourke. The offense averaged 40 points/game with him at the helm last year. But only three other starters from that offense are back. Despite losing 30-14 to Virginia last week, Pitt is going to be an improved team this year. The Panthers led that game at halftime, only to get shutout in the 2nd half. It was a sloppy effort, one that saw them turn the ball over twice, get a punt blocked and not protect the QB well. We look for Pat Narduzzi's team to clean things up a bit as they can't afford to start the year with consecutive losses at home as there's game at Penn State looming next weekend. Ohio won't be able to pressure Pitt QB Pickett as much as Virginia did and thus it'll be a lot better day for the Panthers offense. Play on PITT

AAA

This is an 8* play on SAN DIEGO

All is not well in Colorado right now as the Rockies are on a season-worst nine game losing streak. Offensively, they are unlikely to turn things around, at least while still on the road. Just expect an automatic decline in runs from them outside Coors Field. This season has seen them score 6.2 runs/game at home and only 4.3 on the road. We have little positives to report from the pitching department as well. During this nine-game slide, there have been four times where the Rockies have given up 10 or more runs. One of those was the last time Tim Melville pitched, an 11-4 loss to the Pirates. San Diego probably won't need to score much to win tonight. Lamet had 10 strikeouts in his last start and also held the Rockies to two runs and three hits the last time he faced them. The Padres were also swept in their last series (by Arizona), but that was on the road. At home, better results should be expected. Play on SAN DIEGO

AAA

This is an 8* play on the WHITE SOX

The White Sox have the pitching edge tonight and that alone should be enough to defeat the floundering Angels at home. LA comes in on four-game losing streak as they were just swept up in Oakland. That has them 11 games below .500, something we have not seen from them in three years. Compounding problems is they have to face Lucas Giolito tonight. Giolito has been Chicago's best pitcher in 2019. They are 16-11 when he pitches and his individual numbers indicate he's probably due a better record than that. The last three have seen Giolito turn in a 2.57 ERA and 0.71 WHIP! Opposing him will be Dillon Peters, whose last three starts have been quite the opposite (7.20 ERA, 1.73 WHIP). It is very unlikely that Peters can keep his team in this one. While it's not often Chicago is favored like this, they are 9-2 at -125 to -175 this season. They win here. Play on CHICAGO

AAA

This is a 10* play on RICE

Wake Forest came into the year with some hype and made good on it to some degree by winning its season opener 38-35 over Utah State. The spread closed at -4.5, so the Demon Deacons ended up not covering the number and now they find themselves in even rarer territory. It's three scores that they are laying to the Rice Owls Friday night, on the road. Wake Forest has only been a road favorite three times for current coach Dave Clawson, who is in his sixth-year at Winston-Salem. Their ATS record in those games is 0-3. This will be the first time they are laying double digits on the road since the 2008 season opener against Baylor, who went into that game with a first year starter named Robert Griffin III.  So it's been awhile. Rice obviously isn't very good, but they held their own last week against Army, losing only 14-7 as a 23-point underdog. They did give up 231 yards rushing, but that came on 56 carries. Wake Forest ran for 178 yards last week, on 58 carries, or just 3.1 yards per attempt. That's not very good. If Rice was able to defend Army's triple option, then they should stymie Wake Forest's ground game too and stay well within the number. Play on RICE

AAA

This is an 8* play on BALTIMORE

The Orioles aren't favored to win very often, but they are here and we expect them to step up and deliver. Texas did win last night's game, 3-1, but did so despite only five hits in their latest putrid effort at the plate. The last three games have seen the Rangers score only five runs and they've been held to three or less in eight of the last ten ballgames. The Rangers aren't a good road team (29-44), so even though Baltimore isn't very good anywhere, this is a good chance to pick up a rare win. Bundy will start; he's allowed 3 ER or less in five of his previous six outings. The Orioles are a respectable 3-3 in those games including a win as a +155 dog (against Tampa Bay) the last time Bundy started here at Camden Yards. Not sure we've seen enough of Brock Burke to make any definitive conclusions, but the Texas southpaw hasn't gotten much run support and it's hard to imagine him pitching any better than he has in his first three starts. Before last night's win, the Rangers were just 1-6 their last seven games here in Baltimore. Play on BALTIMORE

AAA

This is a 10* play on the UNDER

The Bears had a top flight defense last season, leading the league in interceptions with 27 while allowing a league-low 27 touchdowns. While they do have to replace defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, virtually all the same personnel returns for second year coach Matt Nagy, with one notable exception. That would be Adrian Amos, who will now start at safety for Green Bay! Interestingly enough, Amos' replacement is former Bear Ha-Ha Clinton Dix. The Packers defense should be better this year thanks to eight new starters. The offense is actually a more interesting deal. The numbers last year were not all that impressive even though Aaron Rodgers played a whole season. That was part of the reason Mike McCarthy is gone. New coach Matt LaFleur has installed a new offense and don't be surprised if, as great as he is, it takes Rodgers some time to adjust. The Packers, who don't run the ball that well to begin with, will likely struggle to run in this game. Chicago closed last season on a 5-0 Under run. Green Bay closed on a 7-3 Under run. Both meetings last year ended up with similar point totals, 47 and 41, and we don't think there will be more points scored here. Five of the last seven meetings have seen 47 or less total points scored. Play UNDER Green Bay-Chicago

AAA

This is a 10* play on HOUSTON -1.5 (Run Line)

Believe it or not, but there was a time early in the season when Seattle was ahead of Houston in the American League West standings. The Mariners started 13-2 out of the gate while Houston was only 10-5 through its first 15 games. Things have obviously gone quite differently since then. Seattle is just 45-80 since while Houston has gone 80-45, leading to a 32 game gap in the standings entering this series. We expect things to go very well on Friday for the Astros, so much so that we'll gladly lay the -1.5 on the run line here. Wade Miley, who has a 20-8 team start record, gets the nod tonight. He has a 3.86 ERA in four starts vs. Seattle this year which includes a win the last time he faced them. Miley has won seven straight decisions coming into tonight. Remember that Houston still has a lot to play for, namely home field advantage. Seattle has nothing left to play for and is an abysmal 1-12 vs. the Astros this year. Their starter for Friday, Marco Gonzales, has really struggled against Houston in his career. He's 0-4 with a 7.50 ERA. Houston is 51-17 at home and 16-3 after an off day. The Mariners a 4-12 as road dogs of +175 to +250. Should be a very easy win for the home team in this one. Play HOUSTON -1.5 on the RUN LINE

AAA

This is a 10* on OAKLAND

The weekend saw the A's lose twice in the final at-bat at Yankee Stadium. Coming off that, they needed to rebound and that's exactly what they did Tuesday with a 7-5 win over the Angels. That result pulls them into a tie with Cleveland for the second Wild Card, though technically they are percentage points ahead. There's no time to rest on their laurels, however. One positive is the A's have four games in hand compared to the team that leads the Wild Card, Tampa Bay, and there's only a one-game difference right now between the Rays and A's/Indians. We expect Oakland to win again tonight. Not only are the Angels just 3-14 their last 17 road games, they've also fallen to a season-worst nine games under .500. They haven't been this far below .500 since finishing the 2016 season at 74-88. Both bullpens were called upon early in last night's game. That puts a greater onus on the two starters for Wednesday and in that regard it's advantage A's as Tanner Roark (26 starts in '19) is far more battle-tested in the role than the Angels' Patrick Sandoval (just 4 starts). Sandoval, who has a 5.71 ERA and 1.62 WHIP, has really struggled. His only two prior road starts saw him give up 9 runs in 9 innings. The A's need this one too badly to lose and the Angels are struggling too much to win. Play on OAKLAND

AAA

This is a 8* on the OVER

The Nationals absolutely stunned the Mets last night, scoring seven times in the bottom of the ninth to win 11-10. So much for a low-scoring game with deGrom and Scherzer as the two starting pitchers. Now, to be fair, over half the total runs scored in the game came in the 9th inning. (The Mets actually scored five in the top half!) and the game was only 4-2 heading into the 8th. While still technically in playoff contention, last night's result had the vibe of a "season-killer" for the Mets. As for the total, it won't be the likes of deGrom or Scherzer starting tonight, but rather Wheeler and Sanchez instead. Both have seen each of their last three starts go Over. In the case of Sanchez, it's four straight. We obviously know what both bullpens are "capable of" here. As bad as the Mets bullpen was last night, Nationals' relievers actually have the lowest ERA in the National League (5.95). (The Mets are 3rd worst). Let's also not forget what Washington has done at the plate over the last few weeks. Last night was the 5th time they went for 11+ runs since August 14th. They've scored at least seven runs in 15 of their last 21 games, a stretch which has seen them go 17-4. Expect a high-scoring affair Wednesday afternoon. Play OVER Mets-Washington

AAA

This is a 10* play on the NATS

With a pitching matchup like deGrom vs. Scherzer, it might seem tough to pick a side, but the Nationals are too hot to be denied right now. This past weekend, they swept the Marlins, scoring 23 runs in the process. That may not sound all that impressive, but it ran their record to 19-5 over the last 24 games. Now they did lose here to the Mets last night, 7-3. But that was when the pitching matchup was decidedly in the Mets favor. It's also been nearly a month since Washington last lost back to back games. The Mets were once hot too, but that's since subsided with them losing 7 of their last 10. They are actually just 10-17 when deGrom starts this year, shocking, but nothing new as last year they were 14-18 with him on the mound. Scherzer has yet to go more than 4 1/3 innings since returning from injury (he's made two starts). But expect him to be "full systems go" tonight. While the Mets have won both deGrom vs. Scherzer matchups this season, those came before Memorial Day.Washington is a decidedly better team right now. Play on WASHINGTON

AAA

This is a 10* on NEW YORK

The Liberty are catching a ton of points Tuesday and are at home against the Mystics. Yes, we fully realize where each team is at in the standings right now, but it's just too many points to lay on the road. Even with the best record in the league, Washington is only outscoring teams by 11.8 points/game this year. They've won eight of nine and did beat the Liberty by 29 a little over a week ago. As for the Liberty, they've lost four in a row and went 1-11 in August. But still ... you just don't see WNBA team asked to lay this many points on the road very often. The Mystics scoring differential shrinks to +4.3 points per game on the road as they give up 80 PPG. So they are nowhere near as dominant on the road. This is their second road game in four days. They're short-handed with starter Kristi Toliver and backup PG Ariel Atkins both injured. As bad as things have gotten for the Liberty, they'll show up today. Play on NEW YORK

AAA

This is an 8* play on the REDS

The Reds fell to the Phillies 7-1 here at home on Labor Day, but that won't be happening again today. In fact, we're willing to bet on the reverse result taking place. Now the Reds did make an overnight pitching change here to Lucas Sims, who will go in place of the injured Alex Wood (back issues). That's actually an upgrade as Wood has really struggled, perhaps directly due to those lingering back issues. Sims has only made two spot starts this year, two months apart (May and July) and both coming against Milwaukee. All of the Phillies runs yesterday came on home runs as they hit four total. Look for their to be a "power outage" today, however. Philly is lucky to even be in playoff contention. They've given up more runs than they have scored while the same can NOT be said for the Reds, even though they're the team 10 games under .500. The Phillies starter for tonight is Vince Velasquez and he has an 8.53 ERA his past three starts and his last one on the road saw him give up seven runs to a Miami team that is 29th in the league in scoring. Play on CINCINNATI

AAA

This is a 10* play on LOUISVILLE

Notre Dame is laying a lot of points in this season opener, but based on how they and Louisville performed in 2018, that's no surprise. The Fighting Irish finished 12-1, the only defeat coming at the hands of Clemson in the CFP. Louisville won just two games (lost 10!) with one of those coming against a FCS program. The other was by three over Western Kentucky, a game that they were favored to win by 17 points. Nine straight losses to end the season means there's a new coach on campus as Scott Satterfield comes over from Appalachian State. Perhaps the biggest indictment on Louisville's 2018 season is that they finished 1-11 ATS, the worst such mark in the country. They'll obviously be better in 2019 as Sattefield has a lot of returning talent to work with, especially on the defensive side of the ball, but also at quarterback. Meanwhile, you should look for Notre Dame to slip a bit this year. They had a really lucky record in close games last year, going 7-0 in those decided by eight points or less. While we would be shocked if Louisville won this game, it is a hefty number the Cardinals are getting due mainly to last year's poor effort. But it's a new coach, a new season and we expect them to perform a lot better at the betting window. The Irish were never asked to lay more than 11 points away from South Bend last year. Play on LOUISVILLE

AAA

This is a 10* play on the OVER

Cleveland has sustained some serious attrition over the last week or so, losing three key hitters from the everyday lineup. They are Jose Ramirez, Tyler Naquin and Jason Kipnis. The former two are going to be out for an extended period of time with Naquin done for the year. These injuries have come at a most inopportune time for the Indians as they are in a tight race for the Wild Card. Getting swept over the weekend in Tampa Bay was a worst case scenario. But thankfully they get to play the White Sox this week. There is one key return for Cleveland and that's Carlos Carrasco, who was diagnosed with Leukemia and will now pitch in a relief role. Chicago has lost six in a row. So this should be a bounce back game for the Indians. But bet the Over instead. Even with the injuries, Cleveland's lineup should have its way with Ross Detweiler, who has been pretty bad this year. He gave up five runs in four innings his last start. Monday's starter for the Indians, Aaron Civale, has looked great. But we don't think he'll be able to maintain his current numbers. The Over is 8-2-2 in Chicago's last 12 road games as they'd given up 31 runs in the three games before yesterday's 5-3 loss. The Over is also 10-3 in the Indians last 13 home games vs. a left-handed starter. Play OVER Chicago-Cleveland

AAA

This is a 10* play on EDMONTON

Edmonton has revenge on the mind as they lost the first "Battle of Alberta" of 2019. It took place four weeks ago as they came to Calgary actually slightly favored and lost 24-18. The Eskimos defense, as per usual, did its job in allowing just 227 yards. No defense is allowing less yards/game in the league this year. But the difference in that prior meeting was a 103-yard kickoff return by Calgary's Terry Williams. The Edmonton offense was also held scoreless for the first half. We don't expect that to happen again and look for the Eskimos to shore the special teams up as well. The big story coming into this game is the return of QB Bo Levi Mitchell for the Stampeders. Calgary has lost two in a row going into last week's bye and the time off made Mitchell returning here a logical landing point. But will he be the same Bo Levi Mitchell that we're accustomed to seeing? Don't think so. Not against this defense. Edmonton lost last week despite holding a substantial edge in yards, so don't look for them to roll out the welcome mat for Mitchell. The Eskimos have covered 4 of the last 5 times that they've been off an ATS loss. As for the Stampeders, they are 0-4 ATS the last four times they've been off a straight up loss. Bottom line is that recent history shows Edmonton is more likely to bounce back and don't expect Mitchell to come in and dominate in his return. Play on EDMONTON 

AAA

This is an 8* play on the UNDER

Arizona had won six in a row before falling in extra innings Sunday. Despite the losing streak coming to an end yesterday, nearly sweeping a four-game series from the Dodgers is impressive. Monday sees the Dbax welcoming in the Padres, who are obviously a much weaker opponent, though San Diego also won 3 of 4 in its last series (against the Giants). We look for Monday's game to be pretty low scoring. The last series between the teams, a Padres sweep, resulted in all Unders as well. It's Cal Quantrill going for San Diego today. After being roughed up in his most recent start, we look for him to bounce back. It was the Dodgers that roughed Quantrill up, which happens to a lot of pitchers. His last seven starts have seen the Under go 5-2 as his ERA and WHIP are 3.69 and 1.08. He's held opponents to a .210 batting average during that time as well. His WHIP on the road this season is 1.05.  But the problem for Quantrill is that before yesterday's 8-4 win, the most runs scored in any game by the Padres in the last two weeks was 5. That's music to the ears of Arizona starter Leake, but what's not is that his team scores fewer runs at home than on the road. Leake does have a 3.60 ERA and 1.20 WHIP at home, however. He's coming off a quality start in San Francisco. Play UNDER San Diego-Arizona

AAA

This is a 10* play on the METS

The Mets are going for the sweep here and we like them to pull it off behind recent addition Marcus Stroman. Since coming over from Toronto, Stroman has started five times for his new team. The Mets have won four of those games, the lone loss coming his last start, which was against the Cubs. Pitching against these weaker National League lineups should certainly benefit Stroman after he used to have to regularly go up against the likes of the Yankees and Red Sox. Three career starts against the Phillies have brought 1.86 ERA for Stroman. The Phillies are 25-25 their last 50 games, but have not had a win streak of more than two games during that time. We don't like Zach Eflin starting in this spot. Before emerging victorious on August 24th (his last start), he'd gone 0-4 with an 8.42 ERA in 10 appearances. The Mets are Eflin's most common opponent (nine career starts) and he has a 6.00 ERA. Eflin's last two starts at home were both terrible as he lasted a combined 6 1/3 innings and allowed 10 runs in one of them. We've been waiting for the Mets to pass the Phillies into third place in the NL East and that finally happens tonight. Play on NY METS

AAA

This is an 8* on the OVER

Taking the Over in a game that involves Miami might sound dicey, but Washington can do all the heavy lifting if need be in this one. The Nationals have gotten ridiculously hot at just the right time as they've gone 15-3 in the last 18 games. Carrying them has been an offense that has scored seven or more runs 14 times during that stretch! They've scored 7 runs in both games of this series, one a shutout (yesterday) and the other a one-run game (Friday). Expect this one to be more along the lines of the opener even though the Marlins did virtually nothing at the plate in last night's game. The Over is 7-3-2 the past 12 times Miami failed to score more than two runs in its last game. Pat Corbin has had their number this year, but Washington is just 4-6 after a shutout win and their bullpen is still pretty suspect. Caleb Smith has struggled on the road for the Marlins this year and has a 6.32 ERA his past three starts overall. He's given up five runs in each of his last two and that's how many he gave up the last time he started here in D.C. as he lasted only three innings. Play OVER Miami-Washington

AAA

This is a 10* play on the UNDER

For the second day in a row, the Reds and Cardinals will play a doubleheader. This unusual circumstance was brought on by Friday's rainout and will undoubtedly take a toll on the position players. Yesterday's doubleheader also took a toll on the Reds as they lost both games. The first was a high-scoring affair (10-6) while the second was more in line with what you expect from these two teams (3-2 final). St. Louis won the second game in the final at-bat after holding Cincy to just three hits. Both teams are exceptional at limiting runs as they rank 2nd (Cardinals) and 4th (Reds) in runs allowed among National League teams. Cincinnati definitely has problems scoring, however. They are averaging only 4.4 runs/game. We don't see them getting too many off Miles Mikolas, who starts this first game for the Cardinals. The Under had been 8-3 in his first 11 home starts before the Over hit in the last two. The Under is 8-1-1 in Mikolas last 10 division starts. The Under is also 20-9-1 in the Cardinals last 30 games overall and 29-12 their last 41 home games. While Reds starter Mahle has a shocking 0-11 team start record on the road, the Under is 7-3-1 in those 11 games. The Under is also 20-8-1 the last 29 times the Reds have played a road game against a team with a .600 or better home win percentage. Play UNDER Cincinnati-St. Louis

AAA

This is an 8* play on AUBURN

The lone battle of ranked teams this weekend pits #11 Oregon against #16 Auburn in Arlington, Texas. Typically, these Pac 12 vs. SEC matchups have not gone well for the former conference and that's a trend we expect to continue Saturday night. Auburn seems like it's being slightly underrated coming into the year. It was just the opposite last year and they still opened by beating Washington in the first game. Washington was regarded as being the Pac 12's best last year and now that distinction probably falls on Oregon. But we're not convinced the Ducks are the 11th best team in the country, despite QB Justin Herbert and almost the rest of the offense returning. Consider this: Oregon has lost 13 of its last 18 games away from Autzen Stadium. Auburn is probably being underrated because of its five losses last year, but three of those were upsets and the other two against Georgia and Alabama. The season ended on a high note with a 63-14 demolition of Purdue in the bowl game. The Tigers have won six straight neutral site games vs. the Pac 12 including the 2010 National Championship vs. Oregon. Not as much on the line this time, but it'll be the same result with the SEC reigning surpreme. Play on AUBURN

AAA

This is a 10* play on VIRGINIA TECH

The ACC didn't waste anytime getting the conference play going as this is one of three games on the slate this weekend. The conference is considered to be "Clemson and everyone else" this year and we saw that Thursday with the Tigers thumping Georgia Tech as expected. But Saturday's two games are expected to be a lot closer. This one, we think might not end up being so close. Virginia Tech is a team that should be better in 2019 after slipping to 6-7 last year. Boston College, not so much, even though they return both QB Brown and RB Dillon. The key to us in this game is on the defensive side of the ball. For his 23rd and final season as the defensive coordinator in Blacksburg, Bud Foster has 10 starters back from last year. After allowing 31 points/game last year, the Hokies defense should get back to business in 2019. On the flip side, Boston College has just three defensive starters back. This is a revenge game for VT as they lost 31-21 last year to the Eagles. Boston College scored 28 unanswered points to end the game. ACC road openers have gone well for the Hokies as they've won 13 of their past 15 as well as three consecutive season openers. The road team is actually on a 4-1 run in this rivalry. Play on VIRGINIA TECH

AAA

This is a 10* play on the UNDER

Alabama plays Duke Saturday afternoon in Atlanta as part of the Chic Fil-A Classic. We do not expect the game to be close, nor do the oddsmakers, but we're not in the business of laying this many points in a season opener either. With Duke breaking in a new starting QB, they are really going to struggle to score points here. Making matters more challenging is that the Blue Devils lost a starting wide receiver (Jake Bobo) to injury three weeks ago. So expect very few points to be scored on the Duke side against what is still one of the best defenses in College Football. As for the other side, Alabama scored at will (until running into Clemson in the Championship Game) last season, but often called off the dogs late when the game got out of hand. We can see a similar situation arising here, which obviously helps when holding an Under ticket. Also, Duke does have eight of last year's starters on defense back, plus a former All-ACC CB (Mark Gilbert) that missed virtually all of last season.  "I'm more excited about this defense than any defense we've had in the 12 seasons," head coach David Cutcliffe said. That defense won't be enough to keep Duke in this one, but this will be a lower-scoring affair than anticipated. Play UNDER Duke-Alabama

AAA

This is a 7* play on HOUSTON 

Houston has caught the Yankees for the best record in the American League. It's hard to imagine them not having their way with the Blue Jays this weekend in Toronto. The AL West leaders already got this series off to a positive start by winning 7-4 Friday. The Astros have now won 10 of 12 overall, a nice recovery from a five-game losing streak that preceded this stretch, and send Framber Valdez to the mound today in search of another victory. Certainly not one of the marquee names on the Houston pitching staff, Valdez's numbers aren't exactly what you'd call "good." But the rookie looked a lot better his last time around as he held the Angels to just one run and two hits in what turned out to be an 11-2 Houston win. The Toronto lineup he'll face this afternoon hits just .228 at home. The Blue Jays just don't have enough offense to compete here as Houston is averaging 8.4 runs its last seven games. Clay Buchholz is getting the start for the home team here, just his second time pitching since May. It was a right shoulder injury that kept him out and you have to wonder just how much is left in the tank at this point. Houston is 24-13 in day games this season. Play on HOUSTON

AAA

This is a 10* play on the OVER

The Yankees didn't score many runs last night, just two to be exact, but should do a lot more damage at the plate this afternoon against Homer Bailey, who often struggles on the road. Bailey has a nice 6-2 record since coming over from the Royals, but he actually hasn't pitched all that well for the A's as his ERA in those eight starts is 5.52. As already mentioned, he often struggles on the road where his ERA is above 6.00 and the Over is 7-4. Bailey did pitch pretty well on August 20th against the Yankees, but that was at home. He will once again start opposite Domingo German. German is having a great year record-wise (he's 17-3), but his ERA (4.09) is higher than what you'd typically expect from a pitcher with that kind of record. German gave up six runs when he faced the A's 11 days ago and has never beaten them in three tries, ending up with an ugly 6.91 ERA. In playing the Over here, we have to mention that the Yankees average 5.8 runs/game, 2nd most in the majors. Oakland's scoring average rises on the road to 5.5 runs/game, which is a top five average. The Over is 25-12-1 the last 38 times the Yankees allowed at least five runs in their last game. Play OVER Oakland-New York 

AAA

This is a 10* play on OREGON STATE

Oregon State isn't exactly well-regarded, so the fact they are taking more than two touchdowns from Oklahoma State can't be too surprising. But this could be the year the Beavers at least make some sort of "mini-leap" forward after winning a total of just three games the previous two seasons. This is the second season for coach Smith in Corvallis. The Beavers are one of the 10 most experienced teams in the country coming into 2019. Not that we think Oregon State wins here, but OK State probably isn't as good as they're being made out to be. The Cowboys slipped to seven wins in 2018 as they were upset five different times. Laying this many to a Power 5 opponent from a different conference seems tricky. In fact, the last time OK State traveled to face a Pac 12 team was 2012 and they lost 59-38 at Arizona. Again, there are probably going to be a lot of points scored in this game. OK State's defensive line is a concern, so that's something the Beaver offense should take full advantage of. The Cowboys offense has no experience at QB with a freshman (Spencer Sanders) likely starting, on the road no less. Jake Luton is back in his second year starting for Oregon State. This game will end up being close. Play on OREGON STATE

AAA

This is a 10* play on BOSTON

The Red Sox took two in Colorado earlier this week, but simply cannot afford to slow down as their chances of returning to the postseason remain tenuous at best. Still 5.5 games out, the reigning World Series Champs have improved their position by winning 9 of 12, but they still need to jump at least two teams. A weekend stay in Los Angeles should be to the Red Sox liking as they traditionally have had their way with the Angels. They haven't visited Anaheim since April of last season, but swept that series and were 6-0 against the Angels overall in 2018. The teams split a four-game series at Fenway Park earlier this month, but Boston dominated in its two wins, one of them coming by a score of 16-4. We can't see anyone making a case for Jose Suarez, who starts for the Angels tonight, having a good outing here. Not only is he 0-3 in his previous three starts, he has a 9.23 ERA and 2.13 WHIP to boot! The Red Sox go with Eovaldi, who is making just his third start since April. A big key for the Red Sox here is their play on the road, which has resulted in a 38-28 record and 5.7 runs/game. That should be enough for Eovaldi as the Angels were just shut out on Wednesday and have only 19 hits in the last four games. Play on BOSTON

AAA

This is an 8* play on TEXAS

Texas will look to rebound from a loss in the series opener and we like their chances here vs. Seattle. The Rangers are a much better team at home (38-28 record) than on the road (27-42), despite what transpired last night. Thursday's game saw the Mariners score twice in the top of the ninth to win 5-3. But save for a six-game win streak in late July and a four-game win streak in the middle of August, they have not won back to back games in the second half. The Rangers are having a better season than the Mariners, so it's odd that we don't have to lay a higher price here. They were a much bigger favorite on the money line last night. Starter Kolby Allard is off his best start at the big league level having blanked Chicago for six-plus innings with eight strikeouts. Marco Gonzales is starting for the fifth time this year against Texas tonight. While three of the previous four have gone well, there was one where he allowed eight runs. Seattle is just 15-27 vs. left-handed starters. Play on TEXAS

AAA

This is an 8* Play on the YANKEES

The Yankees will have revenge on the mind when they take the field Friday night. The A's swept them (out in Oakland) last week, which is the only time New York has been swept this year with the exception of a three-game series in Houston all the way back in early April. At home, the Yankees would appear to have a substantial edge seeing as they've won 49 of 69 games in this park this season including 22 of 26 in the -125 to -175 price range. If that's not enough to convince you, then be aware that Aaron Judge is hitting .383 the last two weeks and he just hit six homers on the recently finished road trip. That trip ended with them sweeping the Mariners and they had Thursday off to prepare for this series. Oakland had to hold off Kansas City yesterday afternoon, a result which was good for us (had the A's), but now they face a scheduling disadvantage. While we do have some concerns about CC Sabathia, the face is Oakland should be more concerned about their starter, Brett Anderson, who has never beaten the Yankees in eight career tries (0-6, 6.86 ERA) and is 1-4 with 4.93 ERA his last six starts overall (1-5 team start record). Play on the YANKEES

AAA

This is a 10* on DENVER

The Broncos won the Hall of Fame Game, coming from behind to defeat Atlanta 14-10. But they haven't won since. It's been three straight losses and they haven't scored more than 15 points in game. While that may not sound like a rousing endorsement, luckily they'll face a downtrodden Arizona team here. The Cardinals haven't done much in the preseason either nor should they be expected to do much in the regular season. Like Denver, the Cards won their first preseason game, but haven't won since. Last week they could manage only nine points in a loss to Minnesota. Rookie Kyler Murray has struggled. But the defense could be a greater concern as it has given up 366 yards/game including 166 on the ground, which is the most any team has allowed. They've sustained some injuries too; on both sides of the ball. Denver has an ongoing battle for the backup QB job, which means there's motivation. Drew Lock will get the start, followed by Brett Rypien and Kevin Hogan. With a rookie head coach (Vic Fangio) looking to impress the home crowd, that's another reason the Broncos will care more. Play on DENVER

AAA

This is a 10* play on the UNDER

It might be unheard of to lay this many points in a season opener against a conference opponent. But if ever there were a time for it, it would be here with #1 Clemson facing Georgia Tech. The Tigers are defending National Champions and will be favored by double digits in every game this season. The Yellow Jackets are going through a transition. They're going from the triple option to a more pro scheme, run by 1st year coach Geoff Collins. Expect growing pains and for Ga Tech to be the worst team in the ACC this year. Clemson beat Ga Tech by 28 last year and that was in Atlanta with Kelly Bryant at quarterback against a team running the triple option. Now its Trevor Lawrence in at QB for Clemson and a Ga Tech offense with pieces fit for a different scheme. The Yellow Jackets simply aren't going to score many points here and with the game in little doubt in the 4th quarter, expect Dabo Swinney to call his dogs (or Tigers as it may be) off. Play UNDER Georgia Tech-Clemson

AAA

This is an 8* play on NEW ORLEANS

Were these teams to play in the regular season, the line would obviously be a lot higher. While we're not getting nearly the same Saints team here, we'll still gladly lay the points. The Saints' backups looked pretty impressive in last week's 28-13 win over the Jets. Miami is very likely to be the worst team in the league this year. So a game featuring nothing but their reserves figures to be a very unimpressive performance. The Dolphins have yet to decide on a starting QB for the regular season. It will end up being either Josh Rosen or Ryan Fitzpatrick, neither of whom figures to perform well for a bad team. The Saints backup QBs - Taysom Hill and Teddy Bridgewater - figure to do a better job here than their Miami counterparts. The Saints ran for over 300 yards in the first two preseason games and should be effective doing that again here. Play on NEW ORLEANS

AAA

This is a 6* play on the METS

The Mets were jumped on early last night and ended up losing 10-7 to the Cubs. Though it was Noah Syndergaard the Cubs jumped on, don't expect the same to happen with Jacob deGrom pitching Thursday. deGrom has been his usual filthy self for the Mets of late, compiling a 0.96 ERA and 0.83 WHIP his past seven starts. He's 3-0 during that time. The Mets really need deGrom to come up big here as they've now lost five straight, putting a severe damper on their playoff hopes. But even though they've won the first two games of this series, don't forget that the Cubs have been a bad road team most of the year. Their record away from Wrigley is only 26-39, including 3-7 as a dog of +125 to +175. The Cubs actually failed to score after the third inning last night after scoring 10 runs against the shocked Syndergaard. That was clearly an anomaly. The Mets nearly came back and won't be facing anything close to a similar deficit here with deGrom pitching. The Mets are 37-27 at home. Jon Lester has a 5.28 ERA and 1.76 WHIP for the Cubs his last three starts. Play on NY METS

AAA

This is an 8* Play on UCLA

You may be surprised by how short this line is, not to mention the way it has been bet, but don't be. Yes, UCLA won just three games in year one under Chip Kelly. But Kelly can take solace in the job his colleague Luke Fickell did last year with Cincinnati, taking them from 4 to 11 wins. No one saw that coming from the Bearcats and while they look good on paper entering 2019, UCLA has the most returning starters in the country (19) and should be a whole lot better in Kelly's 2nd year. The Bruins have had problems winning away from the Rose Bowl in recent season, but look for that to change this year. Something to keep in mind is that these teams opened last season against one another as well. Cincinnati won 26-17, as a 14-point underdog. A couple key differences here for UCLA is that Dorian Thompson-Robinson is the starting QB (wasn't the case last year) and the emergence of RB Joshua Kelley. Look for the Bruins to put up a lot more points in this year's meeting. Similarly, their defense is better than it was a year ago now that 10 starters are back. Cincinnati's offensive line is down two starters from last season. The Bearcats have failed to cover six of the last seven times they've been a home favorite of three points or less. Play on UCLA

AAA

This is an 8* play on CAROLINA

Carolina has been bet from favorite to underdog in this final preseason matchup and we don't have the foggiest idea why. It's not like Pittsburgh has any special motivation to win tonight. Sure, a win tonight would mean a perfect 4-0 preseason for the Black & Gold, but it's not like that means anything. The last two weeks have brought low-scoring victories over Kansas City (17-7) and Tennessee (18-6). We don't expect much more in the way of scoring from Pittsburgh here, so laying points with them isn't a great idea. They haven't been favored since failing to cover against Tampa Bay in the first preseason game. The Panthers got a scare last week with Cam Newton hurting his ankle in an ugly 10-3 loss to New England. Newton should still be good to go for the regular season opener, but the rest of the team will be motivated here to erase the memory of last week's poor effort. Play on CAROLINA

AAA

This is a 10* play on the UNDER

Don't look for much in the way of scoring in this preseason finale between the Vikings and Bills. One of these teams is going to finish its preseason unbeaten. But what we see on the field Thursday won't resemble what we've seen in each team's first three games. Minnesota has been especially aggressive in scoring 26.3 points/game, but they've made their point and are going to be content to "go through the motions" here. The same rings true for Buffalo, who has scored at least 24 points in all three of its games, all of which have gone Over. Tyree Jackson is expected to take all the snaps at QB for the Bills and so far the rookie has completed only 33 percent of his pass attempts. So look for Buffalo's offense to struggle in what should be an ugly game overall. Play UNDER Minnesota-Buffalo

AAA

This is a 6* play on OAKLAND

We rode Oakland to victory the first two games of this series, including a 19-4 win Monday where they collected season-highs in both runs and hits. It proved prudent to lay off last night as they lost 6-4 to the Royals after twice blowing a two-run lead. Had they won last night, we would have likely again laid off today as it's pretty difficult to sweep a four-game series on the road. But the loss last night opens up a golden opportunity to fire here as the A's certainly are the better team and Kansas City is only 18-33 in day games. Chris Bassitt gets the nod for Oakland. He has gone 2-0 with a 2.05 ERA in his last five starts. Bassitt has allowed just seven runs total in those last five starts, which have spanned more than 30 innings. So he's in solid form. Can't say the same for Royals starter Glenn Sparkman, who is not only winless his last seven starts (0-4) but has a 7.50 ERA to show for it. Kansas City has won back to back games just once this month and that came at the expense of the Tigers. Oakland is a better team in all facets and should easily rebound from last night's defeat. Play on OAKLAND

AAA

This is a 10* play on the ANGELS

We thought that the Angels were a good play last night and they won 5-2. We think they're an even better play tonight and thus will take them again on the money line. We mentioned going into yesterday's game that the Angels had gone just 7-16 this month and were a season-worst seven games below .500. But it was a good time to buy low as they had revenge, the better starter and home field advantage. All three of those factors remain present Wednesday. In fact, Texas will now be going with an opener for tonight's game, Emmanuel Clase, before going to originally scheduled starter Ariel Jurado. Clase owns a 4.35 ERA in 10 1/3 innings and has never "opened" before. Jurado has lost his last four starts and given up 22 runs in the last three. So it almost seems like the Rangers are conceding this one. The Angels Patrick Sandoval is still looking for that first win at the big league level and should not have much trouble with a lineup that has been held to four runs or less in seven of its last eight games. Texas is just 26-42 on the road this year. Play on LOS ANGELES

AAA

This is an 8* play on PHILADELPHIA

With teams like St. Louis and Washington surging, Philadephia's late season swoon has proven to be ill-timed. They lost 5-4 to the Pirates last night, on an embarrassing error from Rhys Hoskins that led to the game winning run scoring in the top of the ninth. But we don't think beating a last place team at home is asking too much quite frankly and the Phillies did win Monday's game 6-5. Believe it or not, they are still only two games back of the Wild Card. So if they can win today, they're not out of it by a long shot. Though this series has seen the two Pennsylvania rivals split a couple of one-run decisions, Philadelphia has dominated Pittsburgh the last two years, going 9-2. Wednesday starter Velasquez has struggled of late, even failing to win when being spotted a 7-0 lead in his last start. But the Pirates are not a good team. It's been a disastrous second half of the season for them, going 12-31. Their starter for tonight's game is Mitch Keller and his four road starts have produced an ugly 10.47 ERA and 2.26 WHIP. Velasquez should outpitch him and the Phillies should go onto to win a series they probably should have swept. Play on PHILADELPHIA

AAA

This is a 10* play on the UNDER

St. Louis has taken the first two games from Milwaukee and goes for the sweep Wednesday afternoon in Miller Park. There is no denying that the Cardinals are one of the hottest teams in baseball right now. They're 15-3 their last 18 games and that surge has them in first place in the NL Central. We started this series by cashing the Over Monday as the Cardinals rolled to a 12-2 victory that day. Last night's game was not quite as high scoring with St. Louis coming out ahead by a score of 6-3. For this day game, we like the Under as the Brewers have had some obvious issues scoring of late and they've got to face one of the hottest pitchers in baseball right now, Jack Flaherty. Since the All Star Break, Flaherty has a 0.73 ERA in eight starts. Opponents are hitting just .152 against him in the second half and in August he's 4-0 with a 0.28 ERA and 40 strikeouts! He's allowed a total of one run in his last 32 innings just five runs in his last 56 1/3 IP. In five of his last seven starts, Flaherty has not given up a single run. Giving Milwaukee a chance here is Jordan Lyles. Acquired from Pittsburgh before the trade deadline, Lyles has proven be a solid addition to the starting rotation with a 3-1 record and 2.67 ERA in five outings. He just held Arizona hitless for six innings in his last start. This game has all the makings of a pitchers' duel. Play UNDER St. Louis-Milwaukee

AAA

This is a 10* play on LOS ANGELES

Most of the teams in the American League this year are either really good or really bad. These two are the exception to that "rule" as both have hovered around .500 most of the way. That wasn't always the case for Texas, who was a big surprise in the first half, but has gone just 16-26 since the Break. Any chance the Angels had of making the playoffs has gone out the window due to a 7-16 record in August. They are actually a season-worst seven games below .500 right now as they've lost five a row, a streak which began in Texas last week. The only game they won in that four game series in Arlington was with Andrew Heaney on the mound and fortunately he'll be back there tonight. Heaney dominated the Rangers with 14 strikeouts in eight innings and he allowed just one run. Now compare that to Mike Minor, who allowed seven runs in his start in that series, yet Texas still came away with the victory. Minor won't be that lucky this time as the Rangers are 26-41 on the road and see a substantial drop in runs scored. Minor's last start happens to be the only game in the last week where the Rangers scored more than four runs. Heaney has a 0.64 WHIP his last three starts. Play on LOS ANGELES

AAA

This is an 8* play on OAKLAND

We cashed in big with the A's last night as they produced season-highs in both runs (19) and hits (23). It was a 10-2 game after the third innings and there was no looking back from there. Again, it shouldn't be too difficult to down the floundering Royals tonight. In the analysis for yesterday's game, we discussed the importance of this series from the A's perspective as they probably need to sweep after dropping both games to the Giants over the weekend. Monday was obviously a nice start. For the follow-up Tuesday, Michael Fiers will start. The team has won the last six times he's gotten the baseball and they are 17-9 in all of his starts this year. Kansas City just doesn't have much of an offense as they are averaging only 3.3 runs the last seven games with a .214 average. Mike Montgomery will make his eighth start of the year for them tonight. He was roughed up by Baltimore in his last start, giving up three home runs. Oakland scores more on the road, by the way. Play on OAKLAND

AAA

This is an 8* play on OAKLAND

The A's did not have a good weekend as they dropped both games to the Giants. But far worse than losing some Bay Area pride was the ground lost in the AL Wild Card race as they are now the "odd team out" as in the three-way race with the Rays and Indians (Red Sox also still lurking). Fortunately, Kansas City should make for a good "landing spot" here on Monday. While the Royals did win yesterday, prior to that they'd dropped eight of 10 and had been held to two runs or less in seven of those losses. Ex-Royal Homer Bailey will get the start for Oakland tonight and look for him to take full advantage of being on the "other side." Bailey has been far from dominant in this short stint with the A's, but does own a 0.98 WHIP his last three starts. The A's are actually a better offensive team on the road this year (at least in terms of runs scored per game) and should have little difficulty beating up on KC starter Keller who has a 9-18 team start record this season including 0-5 his last 5. He'll be limited (in terms of innings) moving forward, which isn't exactly a good thing in the short-term for the Royals their bullpen is quite lousy. One final thing to consider is the Royals have lost the last four times they've returned home from a road trip of seven or more days. Play on OAKLAND

AAA

This is a 10* play on the OVER

It was a very good weekend for St. Louis, who not only swept a four-game series against the Rockies, but also watched as the Cubs suffered a rare sweep at Wrigley, at the hands of the Nationals. That leaves the Cardinals up 2.5 games in the NL Central, a division race which Milwaukee also remains a part of as they are 4.5 back after taking two of three this weekend from Arizona. The Cardinals and Brewers just met last week in St. Louis with the home team taking two of three. The Cards did a pretty good job in that series in terms of limiting runs, but they are typically less effective in doing so on the road. Just look at tonight's starter Adam Wainwright. He has a 2.67 ERA at home, but a 6.87 ERA on the road. Not to mention a 1.66 WHIP as well. Milwaukee's Gio Gonzales has watched as his last three starts have all gone Over as he has a 4.61 ERA and 1.54 WHIP during that time. He'll have to deal with a St. Louis offense that just scored 31 runs in the four-game sweep of the Rockies. Lastly, the Over is 24-9-1 the past 34 times Milwaukee has been coming off a game in which they were held to two runs or fewer. Play on OVER St. Louis-Milwaukee 

AAA

This is a 10* Play on Tennessee

Look for the Titans to handle their business at home in this preseason affair. This will be their last home game before the regular season. Last week they lost to New England 22-17 as three-point favorites. There's a very real QB competition here in Tennessee with Marcus Mariota trying to hold off Ryan Tannehill. Both will be motivated to look good in this dress rehearsal game. Pittsburgh is 2-0, coming off two wins at home. They beat Tampa 30-28 and Kansas City 17-7. They're feeling pretty comfortable heading into the regular season and really have nothing to prove here. The Titans did win the preseason opener, 27-10 over the Eagles, and should have a performance more closely resembling that one with starters playing longer this week. Look for Tennessee to move to 14-6-1 ATS their L21 preseason home games. Play on TENNESSEE

AAA

This is an 8* on the DODGERS

Not all records are created equal and in the case of Domingo German's 17-4 team start record and Clayton Kershaw's 18-4 team start record, that is certainly the case. While Kershaw has the kind of individual numbers that you'd typically associate with that kind of success, the same does not hold true for German, most certainly on the road. German has a 5.82 road ERA, yet somehow the Yankees have still won 9 of those 12 games. Kershaw has not lost a decision at Dodgers Stadium with the team winning 12 of his 13 starts here. German gave up six runs in his most recent starts (on the road). Kershaw has allowed just eight total in his last five. Despite going at least six innings in all but three of his 22 starts this year, Kershaw has not thrown more than 101 pitches. That's efficiency. The Dodgers are 52-17 overall at home this year. Play on LOS ANGELES

AAA

This is a 10* on the Over

There's no denying that Toronto is the worst team in the league this year. They've scored only 129 points in eight games, by far the fewest. Only British Columbia, who they lost to and has played one more game, has allowed more points. Last week's defensive effort was very poor as they gave up 41 points and over 500 yards in a loss to Edmonton. This all has to make this week's opponent, Montreal, quite happy as the Als are searching for a second straight win after hanging 40 on Calgary last week. That performance was just was the doctor ordered after the Alouettes had dropped consecutive games for the first time since an 0-2 start. One area of concern that remains is that they are giving up 31.5 points/game on the road. This will be the first time the teams have met in 2019 (excluding preseason). With Montreal off a huge game offensively and Toronto's defense in flux, we know the visitors will put up plenty of points this week. The Argos should also score enough to help this one go Over the total. Play OVER Montreal-Toronto

AAA

This is a 10* play on BRITISH COLUMBIA

British Columbia is having a rough year. The Lions are 1-8 and in last place in the Western Division. Their only win was 18-17 over Toronto, thanks to a rouge. The Argos were winless at the time and sport the same 1-8 record as the Lions. While things won't get any easier for B.C. (hosting East-leading Hamilton) this week, we believe they're up for the challenge. Just two weeks ago, they only lost by one point to the Ti-Cats and that was in Ontario. B.C. outgained Hamilton in the contest, 437-355 and even led 34-19 at the start of the 4th quarter. But it was not to be as the Ti-Cats mounted a tremendous comeback. That was Hamilton's first game without QB Masoli and the offense didn't look too good last week in a 21-7 win at Ottawa. It didn't help British Columbia that they were -3 in turnovers in that last game vs. Hamilton. Look for them to play a cleaner game at home with the revenge angle still fresh in their minds. Hamilton is just 1-4 ATS its last five visits to British Columbia. Grab the points! Play on BRITISH COLUMBIA

AAA

This is a 10* play on the JETS

Given how the Saints tend to treat these preseason affairs, we're not sure why they are now road favorites against the Jets. New Orleans did win last week's game, 19-17 over the Chargers, but it was hardly an impressive effort as they had to rally late from a 17-3 second half deficit. Needless to say, the Chargers best defensive players weren't on the field when the comeback took place. Now the Jets' first-teamers won't be out their late either, but whomever is should at least be able to hold a lead. This is the Jets' first official home game under Adam Gase, though they did play the Giants here at the Meadowlands in Week 1 and lost 31-22. Things went better last week in a 22-10 win over Atlanta, but Gase is still probably focused on getting that first win in front of the Jets faithful. New Orleans is on a much shorter week here with two less days to prepare. Though the Jets offense hasn't looked great thus far, starters are going to play more this week. That includes center Ryan Kalil, who will be making his debut. The Saints were lucky to win last week. They won't be so lucky here as they drop to 0-6 ATS their last six preseason affairs. Play on the JETS

AAA

This is a 10* play on the UNDER

Florida had a big jump in wins under Dan Mullen, going from 4 to 10 in his debut year in Gainesville. Mullen had some fortuitous things go his way though, such as inheriting 19 starters from the Jim McElwain regime and a +12 turnover margin. This year's Gators look like they'll be stronger on the defensive side of the ball. The same holds true for the opening week opponent, Miami, who sees Manny Diaz making the jump from defensive coordinator to head coach, replacing the retired Mark Richt. The Hurricanes only gave up 19.5 points/game last year as it is and didn't allow more than 21 in any of Diaz's three years here as the defensive coordinator. Florida enters #8 in the country. Miami is breaking in a new starter at QB with transfer Tate Martell coming over from Ohio State. This isn't an easy first start. Mullen engineered a tremendous offensive turnaround in his first year with the Gators jumping 86 spots in points/game, the second largest jump ever in FBS. Even with QB Franks back, we're not confident they match last year's number (just five offensive starters return). The Under is 7-1 in Miami's last eight neutral site games and 6-0-1 in the last seven games overall. Play UNDER Florida-Miami

AAA

This is a 10* play on the OVER

If you're wondering why the spread for this early game on Saturday has jumped so high, well, it probably has to do with the fact that Minnesota is leading all teams this preseason with an average of 433 yards/game. They've covered against both New Orleans and Seattle, but we're not about to lay this many points. But the total is still there, ripe to be exploited, in light of the Vikings offensive success so far. Arizona is banged up in the secondary and will start the year without both of its starting cornerbacks as Patrick Peterson is suspended. In other words, the Vikings should continue to pile up yards and points. Look for the Cardinals to follow their lead though as rookie coach Kliff Kingsbury isn't about to take his foot off the gas pedal with his starters likely playing the entire first half of this one. The Cardinals did score 26 points last week in Oakland, but also gave up 33, so we're looking for another shootout on Saturday afternoon. Play OVER Arizona-Minnesota 

AAA

This is an 8* play on ARIZONA +1.5

We'll grab Arizona on the run line here as they'd won three in a row prior to Wednesday's home loss to Colorado. Meanwhile, Milwaukee had lost three in a row prior to winning Wednesday in a rain-shortened game. The Diamondbacks actually play better on the road as their scoring average jumps to 5.5 runs/game from 4.9 at home. This is a huge series with both teams desperately trying to get into Wild Card position. Run differential says - that despite an inferior record - Arizona has played better this year as they have outscored opponents by 64 runs. Milwaukee has a -35 run differential. Brewers starter Lyles has a 7.23 ERA in 20 previous appearances vs. Arizona. Merrill Kelly was quite decent in his last start for the Dbax, pitching five-plus innings and allowing only one run. Play ARIZONA +1.5 

AAA

This is a 10* on TAMPA BAY

As if it weren't already patently obvious, the Browns are officially now this year's "trendy" team with their appearance on this week's cover of Sports Illustrated. Bettors have actually lined up to bet against the Browns in each of the first two weeks of preseason, but both times that proved to be ill-advised. Cleveland is 2-0 with wins over Indianapolis and Washington. The public has taken notice, betting the Browns to road favorites for this week's tilt with Tampa Bay, who won but did not cover last week in Bruce Arians' home debut. Interestingly enough, the Bucs rallied late in both games so far. The first week, they did not win, but did steal the cover in Pittsburgh. Starters see their most action in the third game, which may seem to favor the Browns here, but don't disregard how hard Tampa Bay has been playing late in these games. They've ended up outgaining both previous opponents, something that the Browns can't say as they were outgained last week. Four turnovers aided them in the Washington game as well. Look for the Bucs to play cleaner and harder and to move to 6-1-1 ATS their last eight preseason contests. Play on TAMPA BAY

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

Unbelievable! For the second time in 10 days, the Astros suffered a historic loss as a huge favorite. This time it was 2-1 to the Tigers, ironically with Justin Verlander on the mound. Houston closed at -530 on the money line, which was not the first time they've lost at -500 or higher. Ten days ago, it was to Baltimore. Those aren't the Astros only losses as big favorites recently. Because they're always priced so high, there have been four losses total at -350 or higher. Making matters more difficult to swallow from last night is that Detroit had just two hits, but both were home runs. The Tigers still have scored the fewest runs in baseball. We wouldn't expect them to score many tonight either. They're going against Gerrit Cole, who also could end up closing north of -500. Cole has a 2.87 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. His last five starts have resulted in just six runs allowed in 34 innings. Good thing for Detroit then that they have Jordan Zimmerman going. Zimmerman threw five shutout innings himself his last time out and allowed only one hit. It'll be another low-scoring affair tonight in Houston as the Astros look to make amends for yet another historical loss. The Under is 11-5-1 the L17 times the Tigers have played the finale of four-game series. Play UNDER Detroit-Houston

AAA

This is an 8* play on OVER Jacksonville-Miami

It has not been a good start to the preseason in Jacksonville. After being shut out 29-0 by Baltimore in the first game, things didn't go much better in a 24-10 loss to Philadelphia last week. But with this being the dress rehearsal game, we'll start to get a better feel for what the Jaguars have to offer. Coach Doug Marrone has gone on record as saying almost all starters will play Thursday, most notably QB Nick Foles. So you can expect more points here than the 10 total the Jags have scored the first two games. Miami is a team that's rebuilding, but the players are looking to impress new coach Brian Flores. Last week, the Dolphins lost 16-14 in Tampa Bay. But they were a lot better in the first home game, beating Atlanta 34-27. With a QB competition very much alive (Josh Rosen vs. Ryan Fitzpatrick), the Dolphins will have someone under center looking to score points virtually the entire game. Fitzpatrick will start. Rosen has led five scoring drives against backup defenses in the first two games. Play OVER Jacksonville-Miami

AAA

This is an 8* play on CLEVELAND +1.5

Don't be fooled by the Indians losing 9-2 to the Mets on Tuesday. An embarrassing error (aren't they all?) in the outfield turned out to open the flood gates for Mets in the sixth innings and they took complete advantage. With the game tied 2-2, Cleveland's Oscar Mercado dropped a fly ball. The next at-bat saw Michael Conforto homer and from there, the Mets would tack on five more runs. Who knows how last night's game would have turned out had Mercado simply made the routine play. It's water under the bridge now, but don't expect Cleveland to forget easily. We can't endorse the Mets going from underdogs last night to favorites here as the price change simply doesn't make sense to us. Marcus Stroman has a 3-0 TSR for the Mets, but his ERA and WHIP in those three starts are 5.17 and 1.85. So it's not like Stroman has pitched well for his new team. Here's a tidbit for you: the Indians have not lost consecutive games by multiple runs this month. With Adam Plutko on the mound Wednesday night, look for that streak to continue as the Tribe either win or lose by just a single run. The offense was just 1 for 10 with runners in scoring position last night and should fare better in that situation tonight as well. Play CLEVELAND (+1.5) on the RUN LINE

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

The Twins can scored with the best of 'em, but they failed to do so Monday night in a surprising 6-4 loss to the White Sox. You'd expect them to bounce back Tuesday, but in Wednesday's early game they are going to have to contend with Chicago's best pitcher. That would be Lucas Giolito. The White Sox may not be a good team, but they are 15-9 this year when Giolito pitches. Though his last start vs. the Twins was not good, we expect Giolito to pitch well here. Back in May, he threw five shutout innings against the Twins, holding them to one hit. While keeping the Twins offense in check might be easier said than done (we still expect Giolito to do so!), Jake Odorizzi should have no such difficulty with the anemic White Sox. Odorizzi's last three starts have all brought victory for the Twins as well as a 3-0 mark with Unders. Odorizzi has faced Chicago only once this year and he held them scoreless for 5 1/3 innings, allowing just one hit (sound familiar?). The Under is 13-3-1 in Odorizzi's last 17 starts vs. the AL Central. It is 13-6 in Giolito's last 19 starts overall. Play UNDER on White Sox/Twins

AAA

This is an 8* Play on the YANKEES

The Yankees and A's haven't met since last year's Wild Card Game, which was of course won by the Yanks 7-2. New York certainly appears to have the more viable path back to the playoffs right now as they have a big lead in the AL East and could end up with homefield advantage. Oakland probably can do no better than a Wild Card, though they did just do themselves a giant favor by taking three of four from Houston this past weekend. But they still have a 7.5 game gap to make up in the AL West. They are just 1.5 game back of the Wild Card. But even after the impressive effort over the weekend, we don't like the A's chances here. Yankees starter German has won seven straight decisions and has an 8-0 team start record his last eight starts. The Yankees are 17-3 in all of his starts this season. Oakland's Homer Bailey has not been nearly as successful, even though he shut the Giants out for seven innings in his last start. Good luck doing that to the Yankees, who are 41-13 vs. starters with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The New York lineup is averaging 6.5 runs/game on the road. Play on the YANKEES

AAA

This is a 10* on CLEVELAND

The Indians split four games with the Yankees in their last series, but aren't out of New York quite yet as now it's time for a pair of games with the Mets. Both the Indians and Mets are among the hottest teams in baseball right now and both can thank easy schedules for that. The Mets are 18-5 the last 23 games, but that includes plenty of games against the Pirates, White Sox, Marlins and Royals. Cleveland has gone 20-3 vs the Tigers and Royals during a 46-22 overall. run. We like the Indians in this one for a variety of reasons. Let's start with Shane Bieber, who has a 17-8 team start record and 0.99 WHIP. Bieber has allowed just eight runs his last five starts with two complete games. The Mets' Steven Matz has not lost a decision at home this year (5-0 in 9 starts), but has not been as effective as Bieber. The Indians have won seven of their last eight Interleague road games and are 16-5 their last 21 road games, period. They're the better team here. Play on CLEVELAND

AAA

This is a 10* play on NEW YORK

New York lost its eighth straight game on Sunday, falling to the short-handed Phoenix Mercury by a score of 78-72. Equally as bad is that they just missed out on getting the cash as five-point underdogs. It was a similar story two nights prior when they lost in Dallas by six and were getting four from the oddsmakers. The last game saw the Liberty fall apart in the fourth quarter, getting outscored 28-18. But that's nothing compared to what happened to the Indiana Fever on Sunday. The Fever lost 107-68 to the Mystics, allowing a WNBA record 18 made three-pointers. It was the latest disastrous defensive effort for a team that has dropped 7 of 10 overall. We don't like the notion of Indiana laying this many points, given the recent defensive ineptitude. Also, what happened defensively in that last game also masks the fact the Fever scored only 68 points. Play on NEW YORK

AAA

This is a 10* on the OVER

For Denver, this is the third preseason game, so they've had a chance to work out the kinks. Well, at least in theory. The Broncos have scored just 14 points in each game, winning one and losing one. It was the Hall of Fame Game they won, thanks to a late touchdown. They weren't as fortunate last Thursday in Seattle. Again, they scored a late TD though. The Broncos had a lot more yards in the second game (298 vs. 188), which is a positive sign. As for the 49ers, they were 17-9 winners over Dallas in their only game. They scored 10 points in the fourth quarter to "steal" the win. Even though neither team has shown much penchant for scoring thus far, we like this one to go Over the total. Starters will play more this week than we've seen previously. There's also depth at quarterback. Denver has Drew Lock (17-28 for 180 yards) and Kevin Hogan to backup Joe Flacco. The 49ers have Nick Mullens and CJ Beathard, both of whom started regular season games last year in the wake of the Jimmy Garoppolo injury. Play OVER San Francisco-Denver 

AAA

This is a 10* play on ST. LOUIS

This shapes up to be a very important series in the National League Central as well as the NL playoff race in general. St. Louis will start the week tied with the Cubs for first place in the division. Milwaukee is two games back. The Cardinals had the better weekend as they split in Cincinnati. We used them yesterday as a 10* play and won. The Brewers lost two of three in Washington and got killed Sunday 16-8. In the last two days, the Brewers have allowed 30 runs. Expect them to allow a lot more tonight due to the struggling Zach Davies being on the mound. Davies last three starts have seen him allow 18 runs in just 13 innings. By the way, the last time the Cardinals took on the Brewers, they swept them (back in April). The Brewers struggle on the road. Their road record is 28-34. St. Louis is 34-23 at home and will send out Dakota Hudson. In his last start, Hudson tossed six scoreless innings. The team is 8-3 with him on the mound here at Busch Stadium. Play on ST. LOUIS

AAA

This is an 8* play on the CUBS

We'll keep rolling with the Cubs after they finally won a road game yesterday. It was a 2-0 win at PNC Park. This series will now conclude in nearby Williamsport (PA) as part of the Little League World Series festivities. It's the Sunday night game, set to be broadcast on ESPN. The Cubs have struggled on the road, but perhaps this neutral setting will offset that. Yesterday afternoon, Jon Lester threw six shutout innings and even though the Pirates had the bases loaded three different times, they never got anyone across home plate. Pittsburgh has now lost 26 of 33 games since the All Star Break. The Cubs are now 34-17 in day games this year. While not a day game, the Cubs can lean on Jose Quintana tonight just as they leaned on Lester Saturday. Quintana has a 1.89 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in his last three starts. His last start was one of his most dominant. He had 14 strikeouts against Philadelphia, a game the Cubs still lost 4-2. But Pittsburgh is a much weaker opponent than Philadelphia. Look for the Cubs to score more runs tonight as they face a weak starter in Keller, who has a 7.94 ERA and 2.00 WHIP. Play on the CUBS 

AAA

This is a 10* on NEW YORK

The Liberty have the second worst record in the league right now. They are 8-17 after taking seven straight losses. They're 0-6 ATS in August. They're 1-10 straight up since beating Phoenix 80-76 on July 5th as 7.5-point underdogs. The Mercury are a short-handed bunch right now with Brittney Griner still suspended and Diana Taurasi still injured. If not for an 18-4 second half run Friday, they probably would not have beaten the Atlanta Dream, who have the worst record in the league. The Mercury have not won back to back games in over a month. They'd dropped three in a row before the win over Atlanta. Only one day of rest between games isn't an idea situation for Phoenix either. They are just 3-7 ATS the last 10 times in that role. The Liberty are in the same spot, with just one day of rest between games, but they should come out more desperate. Play on NEW YORK

AAA

This is a 7* play on the ANGELS

The Angels rallied for four runs in the bottom of the seventh last night, ripping victory from the jaws of defeat. Of course, it really shouldn't be that difficult to defeat the White Sox, one of six teams to be outscored by more 100 runs this year. But while the other five all have lost at least 73 games, somehow Chicago has been able "get by" with a 55-67 record. That's not good, but it isn't horrible either. The reality though is that the White Sox are one of the worst teams in baseball. The Angels are going for a fourth win in their last five games here and should get it behind starter Griffin Canning, who has allowed 3 ER or less in 12 of his 16 starts this season. The White Sox remain 28th in MLB in runs scored (third fewest) and starter Dylan Cease has a 5.31 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. With yesterday's win, the Angels improved to an impressiv 59-37 as home favorites of -125 to -175. Look for them to take the series. Play on the ANGELS

AAA

This is a 10* on ST. LOUIS

The Cardinals did not fare well in Cincinnati yesterday, losing 6-1. They've now dropped two of three in the series, getting held to just one run in both losses. But they scored 13 in the one win. They need not worry about giving up many runs on Sunday afternoon with Jack Flaherty pitching. Flaherty has not allowed a single run in his last three starts. They've spanned a total of 21 innings and he's allowed only eight hits. He's struck out 26 and walked only four. This is a big pitching edge for St. Louis with Flaherty going up against Alex Wood, whose four starts so far haven't gone particularly well. By the way, Flaherty has already pitched twice against Cincy this season and has yet to give up a run, 11 1/3 scoreless innings to be exact. Yesterday aside, the Reds remain a disaster in day games with a 17-32 record. Play on ST. LOUIS

AAA

This is a 10* play on PETTIS

The mercurial Nate Diaz is back in the Octagon for the first time since splitting a pair of fights with Conor McGregror in 2016. That's a long layoff and as a result, he's an underdog for this fight with Anthony Pettis, who has been alternating wins and losses going back to 2016. Both fighters are used to high level competition. But to us Diaz's long layoff is the difference maker here. He's always a slow starter. In a three-round scenario here, that is likely to cost him. Pettis stopped Stephen Thompson in March with a second round knockout. Stopping Diaz, who has a reach advantage, will not be as easy, but look for Pettis to grind out a victory here. Play on PETTIS

AAA

This is a 10* on the RAMS

We know the Rams basically showed up to Oakland only because they had to last week, turning in a non-existent effort in a 14-3 loss to the Raiders. But the line for this week's game with Dallas (in Hawaii) has jumped the fence and moved dramatically more than what you typically see for any NFL contest - regular season or preseason. It's opened up some nice value on the Rams as their opponents this week, the Cowboys, haven't won a preseason game since 2017. Cowboys coach Jason Garrett has a 12-22 SU record in the preseason, so him being bet to the role of favorite seems confusing. Rams coach Sean McVay didn't play a single starter last week. Because of the poor effort, we're likely to see some this week, even if it's not the Pro Bowlers. Dallas didn't score a touchdown in its preseason opener. QB Dak Prescott may be limited here due to injuries on the offensive line. Ezekiel Elliott remains a hold out and WR Amari Cooper is injured. Take advantage of this line move, which makes no sense. Play on LA RAMS

AAA

This is a 10* play on MINNESOTA

The Twins got a "2 for 1 special" Friday night. Not only did they win, but the Indians lost. That means Minnesota's advantage in the AL Central is now 1.5 games, nothing compared to what it once was (11.5 games!), but it's breathing room. Seeing as the Indians are in New York playing the Yankees this weekend, it's paramount for Minnesota to keep beating up on the floundering Rangers. They also won 13-6 Thursday, which was a lot more lopsided than last night, but a win is a win. It should be another easy win tonight with Jose Berrios pitching. Berrios has a good WHIP, especially on the road (1.08) and when compared to opposing starter Jurado, whose WHIP is a terrible 1.50. Lately, Jurado has been worse with a 7.98 ERA and 1.77 WHIP in his last three starts. Texas has lost all three of those games.The last one saw him allow eight runs in only 3 2/3 IP. The Rangers have now lost eight of 10 and have no shot at making the playoffs at this point. Minnesota has everything to play for and will continue to assert its dominance. Play on MINNESOTA

AAA

This is an 8* play on the CUBS

The Cubs failed to come through for us last night as their road woes continued. A 3-2 loss here in Pittsburgh leaves the Cubs not only 23-39 outside of Wrigley, but also out of first place in the NL Central as St. Louis won yesterday to go up a full game in the standings. The Cubs can't afford to drop anymore games in Pittsburgh this weekend and we see them bouncing back Saturday afternoon against a still struggling side that has gone just 7-25 in the second half. It being an early game today works in the Cubs favor as they're 33-17 in day games this year. Pittsburgh is giving up almost six full runs per game at PNC Park, so expect the Cubs bats to wake up after being held to only five hits last night. Jon Lester obviously needs to be better than he has been recently for Chicago. It's a good thing then that he's 3-0 with a 1.31 ERA his last four starts in Pittsburgh. The Pirates will start Steven Brault, who has also been used as a reliever at times. No matter if he's started or come on in relief, Brault has had no career success against the Cubs as is evident by 7.53 ERA in 12 appearances against them. Play on the CUBS

AAA

This is an 8* on the UNDER

We called for the Yankees to bounce back from an ugly 19-5 defeat on Friday and that's exactly what they did, beating Cleveland 3-2. As you can tell from the respective scores, it was a much different game Friday night as the Indians were held to only four hits as opposed to the 24 they unleashed on Thursday. New York also got 6 1/3 strong innings from Masahiro Tanaka. We think Saturday starter James Paxton is in line for a similar performance as he's gone 3-0 over his last three starts with a 2.89 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. The problem for the Yankees though is that Cleveland's Zach Plesac has not lost since being recalled from Triple-A Columbus in June and the Indians are 7-0 his last seven starts. Plesac has a 3.12 ERA in those seven starts and has allowed no more than three runs in six of them. The Under has hit in the third games of the Indians last five series. Play UNDER Cleveland-New York 

AAA

This is an 8* play on ARIZONA

Last night was a bad night for us and perhaps no loss was more surprising than the Diamondbacks going down 7-0 at the hands of the Giants. It wasn't just how the Dbax lost, but rather HOW as they were held to three hits by Dereck Rodriguez, who had just been called up from Triple A and looked the best he ever has. No Arizona runner ever reached second base. They were supposed to be face Jeff Samardzija yesterday, not Rodriguez, but now get Samardzija tonight. The former Notre Dame standout has pitched great of late, but he has a 6.35 ERA in two starts vs. the Diamondbacks this season. Arizona is 3-1 after being shut out this season. They send Mike Leake out to the mound, hoping he pitches a lot better here than he did vs. the Dodgers on Sunday. He should as the Giants have a much weaker hitting lineup than the Dodgers. They are bottom five in runs, batting average and OPS.  Play on ARIZONA

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

Both teams games went Over last week. Miami beat Atlanta 34-27 while Tampa Bay lost to Pittsburgh 30-28. The Bucs actually outgained the Steelers by 130 total yards and had 12 more first downs, but had to score two late touchdowns just to cover the spread. Backup QB Ryan Griffin threw for 330 yards, which seems pretty incredible, but most of that was garbage time as he directed the two scoring drives (both 65+ yards) in the final five minutes. Also incredible was Josh Rosen's performance in Week 1 as he threw for 191 yards and led three Miami scoring drives. These kind of numbers shall not be repeated here, however, as we look for both defenses to show up with some pride and atone for last week's miserable efforts. Griffin had the big numbers last week for the Bucs, but the primary backup Blaine Gabbert led the offense to just three points in four drives. Play the UNDER

AAA

This is a 10* on the GIANTS

The Giants certainly looked impressive in the first preseason game. They racked up over 400 yards in the annual tussle with the Jets, which they won 31-22. Perhaps most notable was rookie QB Daniel Jones leading the offense into the end zone on his only drive. If not for a weather delay, Jones very well may have stayed in the game longer. Regardless, it was still a much better showing than what the Bears delivered in their preseason opener. They lost to Carolina 23-13 at home. QB Mitchell Trubisky also played just a series, but accomplished nothing as it was a three-and-out with all handoffs. Trubisky isn't likely to see a ton of action in Friday's game either. Jones will likely play more for the Giants. For Chicago, there just aren't many positional battles (outside of kicker!) and thus the reserves won't be as motivated. Going into the regular season as healthy as possible is priority #1 in the Windy City. The Giants will want this one more. They are 5-2-1 ATS their last eight preseason games. Play on NEW YORK

AAA

This is an 8* play on the YANKEES

The Indians came to New York and jumped all over the Yankees last night, hitting seven home runs en route to a shocking 19-5 victory in the Bronx. It was Cleveland's biggest win of the year as well as the Yankees worst loss of the year (in terms of margin). The 24 hits that the Indians collected were their most in over a decade. But we've got New York bouncing back tonight. Not just because of their 6-2 record this year after giving up 10 or more runs (19-8 L3 seasons too), but also the pitching matchup, which has Masahiro Tanaka going tonight. Tanaka is 6-2 at home this year and 3-0 his last three starts overall. His last start was eight shutout innings of three hit ball at Toronto. Cleveland's Civale has started only three games prior to this and while all have gone well, this will easily be his toughest assignment to date. The Yankees are a dominant 47-19 at home this year, including 20-4 when priced as a -125 to -175 favorite. They bounce back in a big way Friday. Play on the YANKEES

AAA

This is an 8* play on the CUBS

Should be an easy series for the Cubs this week as they play a Pittsburgh team they swept last month. That series was the first after the All Star Break and really "sunk" the Pirates season as they've gone just 6-25 in the second half. We know we've preached caution with playing the Cubs on the road as their record is just 23-38 away from Wrigley after being swept in Philadelphia to start the week. But Pittsburgh is 0-4 this season as a home dog of +125 to +175. Kyle Hendricks really got roughed up in his last start for the Cubs, giving up seven runs, but you should expect him to pitch a lot better here as he's given up no more than two runs in any of his previous seven starts. Starting opposite Hendricks will be Joe Musgrove for Pittsbugh. Musgrove is not having a good year at all as his ERA and WHIP in his last three starts are 7.98 and 1.637. Play on the CUBS

AAA

This is a 10* on ATLANTA

The Falcons have played two games, but have zero wins as they dropped the Hall of Fame Game to Denver, 14-10, and then lost 34-27 to Miami last week in a sloppy effort. That makes it 10 straight preseason losses under Dan Quinn, which might seem to demonstrate a whole new level of apathy towards these preseason affairs. However, with Matt Ryan scheduled to take a few snaps this week (his 1st action of the preseason), we are expecting a more inspired effort as the Falcons play at home for the first time. They led the HOF Game with under two minutes to play, but a Matt Schaub interception led to the game winning score for Denver. Last week, it was tied going into the final two minutes. So both games have seen Atlanta lose late. Schaub looked better last week (172 yards), which is important seeing as Ryan won't be on the field long. The Jets lost last week as the defense gave up 31 points and over 400 yards to the Giants. Adam Gase chose to rest a number of his starters and the same should hold true again this week. We believe that the Falcons are really eager to snap this preseason losing streak of theirs. Play on ATLANTA

AAA

This is a 10* play on the CUBS

The Cubs have some revenge on the mind tonight as they got crushed 11-1 by the Phillies Weds night. You might also remember us taking the Phillies +1.5 on Tuesday, a game where the run line did not even come into play as they won 4-2. These two straight losses have landed the Cubs back in a first place tie with the Cardinals in the NL Central. The Phillies are very much alive in the Wild Card hunt as they're now just two games back of whomever doesn't win the Central. While we're still very much wary of the Cubs' road woes (cited in Tuesday's analysis), this is a game where they absolutely deserve to be favored and should deliver accordingly. Drew Smyly is pitching for the Phillies and he's simply not the guy to get the job done. After his tenure in the City of Brotherly Love got off to a good start (two straight quality outings), Smyly has been tagged for 11 runs in his last two starts. Going back to his time in Texas, he has a 6.25 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in 13 starts. He'll be opposed by Yu Darvish, who has a 0.88 WHIP his last three starts. Over his last seven starts, Darvish has 51 strikeouts in 41 2/3 innings. Play on the CUBS

AAA

This is a 10* play on the UNDER

This series has gone exactly as you might expect with the Dodgers taking the first two games 15-1 and 9-1. This is after all a matchup of one of the best teams in baseball against one of its worst. It seems to be a foregone conclusion that Miami won't score much this afternoon as not only are they the lowest scoring team in the National League (by a mile), they are also set to go up against Walker Buehler. Buehler is having himself an outstanding year with a 3.08 and 0.99 WHIP in 22 starts. He's 10-2 and just threw six shutout innings in his last start. Before that, it was a complete game effort where he allowed only one run on five hits. Miami has already proven that it can't hit Dodger pitching (2 runs in 2 games and just seven hits), so that half of the equation is a given. It really can't be understated how inept the Marlins are offensively. All but five teams have scored at least 100 more runs than them over the course of the year. All but two have scored at least 89 more. This Under boils down to if LA's bats are kept in check and Miami does have Caleb Smith on the mound. Smith has been good, particularly at home, and we believe will get the job done. He has a 3.12 ERA and 1.09 WHIP at home. The Under is 20-8-2 in Miami's L30 home games. Play UNDER LA-MIAMI

AAA

This is a 10* play on PHOENIX

Connecticut has the second best record in the league right now at 16-8 straight up, but they're caught laying a pretty big number in Phoenix tonight. Now the Mercury will be without leading scorer Brittney Griner (suspended), a big loss, but it's not something they can't overcome with a little help here from the oddsmakers. While only 11-12 SU overall, Phoenix is 7-3 SU at home. Connecticut has dropped two in a row and this will be their 4th straight road game. This trip began 10 days ago in New York and ends tonight in Phoenix and the last two games have each seen the Sun give up 89 points, the most they've allowed in any game all year. Note that Phoenix played the Sun tough earlier this month, with Griner missing the entire second half and only lost by six points. That was up in Connecticut. It should be a more competitive game tonight in the desert as the Mercury have covered four straight against the Eastern Conference (including that game in Connecticut) and are 7-1 ATS their last eight games vs. the Sun. Connecticut is 2-8 ATS its last 10 road games. Play on PHOENIX

AAA

This is a 10* play on ATLANTA

From July 25th to August 10th, the Mets went 15-1 to surge back into the playoff picture. But they've come back down to Earth with back to back losses, including 5-3 here in Atlanta last night. The task will get no easier Wednesday as they are set to face Dallas Keuchel, who has gotten the job done at SunTrust Park. Keuchel has a 2.96 ERA and 0.84 WHIP in his new home park. We feel Keuchel sitting out the first three months of the season (was a free agent) will serve him well down the stretch as he'll be fresher. Atlanta definitely needs him to stay fresh as they try and win the NL East for a second year in a row. For the Mets' Steven Matz, things have not gone well on the road this year as his ERA and WHIP are 6.79 and 1.67. He's 2-7 in 12 starts and his last time pitching on the road saw him give up five runs in just over three innings to a Pirates team that is in last place. That was actually the Mets only loss in that 16-game stretch mentioned above. The Mets are still only 8-20 their last 28 games vs. teams that have a winning record. Braves win this battle of southpaws. Play on ATLANTA

AAA

This is an 8* play on SEATTLE

Seattle hasn't had many easy victories of late, or really many victories at all, but they were able to win 11-6 yesterday here in Detroit. The Mariners are now 5-0 this season against the Tigers, who are one of the few teams in the American League with a worse record. Of course, everyone - AL and NL - has a better record than Detroit, who is just 35-81 while getting outscored by 233 runs. They've been especially bad at home, getting outscored by almost three full runs per game! Seattle beat the Tigers' best pitcher (Matthew Boyd) yesterday, so getting by Edwin Jackson should not be a problem by comparison. Jackson has a 9.35 ERA and 1.92 WHIP this year. His last start was the best one, but that came against a weak-hitting Kansas City lineup. Remember that he was cut by a bad Toronto team (that doesn't exactly have great starting pitching) earlier in the year. Seattle's Marco Gonzales beat Detroit last month, holding them to one run in seven innings. His last start saw him give up only two runs in 6 1/3 innings. Three of his last four starts have seen him go six or more innings and allow no more than two runs. Play on SEATTLE

AAA

This is an 8* play on the OVER

There haven't been too many highlights this season for Toronto, but they've looked really good in this series with Texas. They won Monday's opener 19-4 and despite a late pitching change were able to win last night's game in shutout fashion (3-0). We think things are likely to revert back to a high-scoring affair for Wednesday's finale. While the Rangers haven't been doing much scoring lately, they certainly did have their chances last night. But they left 10 men on base. The first inning saw them have the bases loaded with one out, but obviously they failed to score. Look for them to cash in more of those opportunities today against Sean Reid-Foley, who has a very misleading 2.95 ERA as his WHIP is 1.641. That means he's been getting away with putting a lot of runners on base. Since joining the rotation, he has issues 10 walks and allowed 13 hits in 14 innings. Texas goes with Allard, who is making only his third career start (second this year). He lasted only 4 1/3 innings last week in Milwaukee and while he gave up only two runs on three hits, he did walk three batters. This will be a high-scoring game. Play OVER Texas-Toronto

AAA

This is an 8* Run Line play on PHILLIES +1.5

This is a great price to grab an extra 1.5 runs against the Cubs, who have proven to be not very good on the road. They could only manage a split with the feisty Reds over the weekend and were actually outscored over the four games. They're only 23-35 for the year on the road and have a losing record (5-6) as a favorite of -125 to -175. As for the Phillies, they are badly in need of a victory after dropping five of their last six. This slide has them down in fourth place in their own division, but they're still only two back of the Wild Card. They'll be going up against Jose Quintana tonight and he has a 5.29 ERA in three previous starts in Philadelphia. His ERA (surprise, surprise) is higher on the road than it is at home. Jason Vargas will be making his third start for the Phillies since being traded from the Mets and he is 3-0 lifetime vs. the Cubs. The Cubs have not won any of their last 11 road series, by the way. Play PHILADELPHIA +1.5 

AAA

This is a 10* play on BOSTON

The Red Sox come to Cleveland probably needing a sweep. They just lost two games over the weekend to a bad Angels team, further dropping them off the pace for the Wild Card. Sunday's loss came in extra innings after blowing a late lead. The Indians were also involved in an extra inning game yesterday afternoon, but they won theirs 7-3 thanks to a Carlos Santana grand slam after they too blew a late lead. Cleveland has won 42 of its last 59 games, so this will be tough for Boston, but they have the right guy for the job Monday in starter Eduardo Rodriguez. They've won 17 of the last 21 times he's gotten the baseball, not including the last time as that game was suspended due to rain. He went five innings in that game and gave up only two runs on seven hits. This will be Rodriguez's first time facing Cleveland this year, but he's got a 2.63 ERA in two previous starts against them. Plesac has been getting it done for Cleveland as the team is a perfect 6-0 in his last six starts. However, more often than not, he doesn't go too deep into games. Boston needs this game more and will be more motivated. They are actually 40-12 in Rodriguez's last 52 starts. Play on BOSTON

AAA

This is a 10* on PHILADELPHIA

The Giants were among the hottest teams in baseball not too long ago, but have cooled off considerably by losing 8 of their last 12. Two of the four wins have come in this series against the similarly struggling Phillies. Last night was a 3-1 win, the second time in the series a Giants starter was able to hold the Philies hitters in check. But there's no Madison Bumgarner or Jeff Samardzija on the mound tonight. Instead it will be Conner Menez and we like Philly's chances against him. Menez is making only his third start of the year, but second in a row in the rotation. He gave up five runs Tuesday in a loss to the Nationals. Menez isn't likely to get much help from the Giants hitters either. They've averaged less than three runs/game over the last week.They average only 3.3 runs/game at home. What that all means is that it should be a good start for Jake Arrieta, who has given up just runs in each of his last two starts. Play on PHILADELPHIA

AAA

This is a 6* play on the METS

The Mets have won eight in a row and can sweep the Nationals Sunday with Jacob deGrom pitching. As you'd expect with deGrom on the mound, the odds are certainly in the Mets favor. Incredibly, if the Mets win today, they would be in Wild Card position. deGrom has been insanely good of late. He's posted a 1.76 ERA and 1.02 WHIP his last seven starts and a 1.29 ERA and 0.86 WHIP his last three. He is 8-4 with a 2.77 ERA in 17 career starts vs. Washington. The last time deGrom faced the Nationals, he gave up only one run on two hits in six innings and beat Max Scherzer. The Mets are obviously playing much better now as they've not only won eight straight, but also 15 of their last 16. Anibal Sanchez is a fine pitcher for the Nats, but he's not deGrom and sometimes a game simply boils down to the starting pitching matchup. Throw in the fact that the Mets are insanely hot right now and this looks to be a no-brainer! Play on the METS

AAA

This is an 8* play on BOSTON

It's been hard times for both teams of late. The Angels had lost eight in a row before yesterday's surprising 12-4 victory here at Fenway Park, which was just the latest installment of terrible Boston pitching. But they should be better today. Andrew Cashner has really struggled of late, but the Red Sox did win the first two games of this series 3-0 and 16-4. They are a better team than the Angels. It's pretty disappointing that Boston is only 30-29 at home because they are averaging a strong 5.8 runs/game at Fenway. Patrick Sandoval will be making just his second big league start here for the Angels and it's a tough spot. It was really one big inning that did the Red Sox in last night as the Angels finished with more runs (12) than hits (11). Cashner may have struggled of late, but he has pitched at least six innings in each of his last three starts vs. LA, turning in a 3.27 ERA. Boston is 71-29 its L100 games vs. teams that have losing records. Play on BOSTON

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This is a 10* play on the UNDER

Lots of star players won't see the field at all in this one - for both teams. While that's not unusual for the preseason, here the absences will be a little more noticeable. 49ers quarterback Garoppolo is still working his way back from an ACL injury, so he won't play at all. Nick Mullens and C.J. Beathard will be taking the majority of the snaps instead. Their receiver group has not looked all that great in camp. Dallas never treats the preseason too seriously, so we should see even less of their star players. They averaged only 10.7 points/game in the preseason last year and lost all four games. The Under is 25-9 their last 34 preseason road games. Play UNDER Dallas-San Francisco

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This is a 10* play on ST. LOUIS

Of all the teams that could have come to Busch Stadium this week, the Cardinals would probably have the Pirates near the top of that list. They beat them last night, 6-2, to improve to 10-4 head to head with Pittsburgh this season. The win also snapped a five-game losing skid, the entirety of which occurred on the West Coast (in Oakland and LA). As for the Pirates, they've lost six in a row and 22 of 26 since the All Star Break. So they are what St. Louis needs right now as the Cardinals try and keep pace with the Cubs in the Central Division. The Cards will start Adam Wainwright on Saturday and like most others in this rotation, he's a lot better at home (2.26 ERA) than he is on the road. Pittsburgh starter Musgrove has been lousy wherever he starts and especially lately as his ERA and WHIP in his last three starts are 9.42 and 1.605 respectively. Play ST. LOUIS

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This is an 8* play on DETROIT

The Tigers are arguably the worst team in baseball, but this is one of the few series where the odds are in their favor. Sure enough, they've beaten the Royals each of the past two days, 10-8 and 5-2. Incredibly, this is the first time the Tigers have won consecutive games since a three-game win streak at the end of May. That's their only win streak since April, which is quite the "achievement." Despite history not being on their side Saturday, we'll back the team from the Motor City. Spencer Turnbull may have an 0-8 TSR his last eight starts, but that's more a byproduct of pitching for a bad team than his own personal shortcomings. Turnbull has allowed no more than three runs in six of those eight starts. Kansas City is not a good team and has lost all four starts made by Montgomery, who gets the nod here. While 26-73 against "everyone else," the Tigers are 9-5 against the Royals this season. Play on DETROIT

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This is a 10* Play on OTTAWA

The Redblacks got a much needed win last week by going into Montreal and coming out ahead 28-27 as 6.5 point underdogs. That snapped a four-game losing streak. We believe that it's critical to point out that three of those four losses came at the hands of Winnipeg or Calgary, arguably the two best teams in the league right now. All three Ottawa wins this seasons have come by four points or less, but they're underdogs again this week and that's a role that has suited them quite well. The Redblacks are 3-1 ATS as dogs this season and won two of the games outright. Here they'll be catching Edmonton one week removed from losing to provincial rival Calgary in a hard fought game. Could this be a "letdown" spot for the Eskimos? We're willing to bank that it will be. Three of Edmonton's four wins this year have come against Toronto and B.C., who are a combined 2-12 straight up and the other was in Week 1 against a Montreal team that was the worst in the league last year. Grab the points in this one. Play on OTTAWA 

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This is a 10* on CLEVELAND

Cleveland is now just one game back of Minnesota following Thursday's 7-5 wn. Winning tonight would obviously pull them into a first place tie. The Twins once led the Indians by as many as 11.5 games and were ahead by 7.5 games as recently as July 13th. But the Indians have caught fire by going 40-16 their last 56 games. Perhaps this young Minnesota team is now feeling the heat as they have lost three in a row for just the second time all year. Their other three-game losing streak came right after the All Star Break and was snapped with a 6-3 win over Oakland. But expect a different result this time as Cleveland's Shane Bieber has been virtually untouchable of late with two complete games in his last three starts, one of them a shutout. The Indians are 16-7 in Bieber starts this year and he has a 0.75 WHIP on the road. Twins starter Smeltzer has only started three games. In two of them, he didn't allow a run. But the third was against Cleveland and he gave up all five runs in a 5-2 loss. Bieber has beaten the Twins both times he faced them this year. Play on CLEVELAND

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This is a 10* on MINNESOTA

The Vikings will never forget their 2017 playoff win over the Saints. A Google search of "The Miracle of Minneapolis" will quickly remind you of what transpired there. The Saints did gain a measure of revenge by coming here last year and winning a regular season game 30-20, but once again their season ended in heartbreak thanks to some questionable officiating in the NFC Championship Game. New Orleans plays host to the latest Vikings-Saints tussle and far less is on the line compared to two years ago as it's only preseason. That means no Drew Brees for the Saints (hasn't taken a preseason snap since 2016) and little of Kirk Cousins for the Vikings. But we look for the Purple People Eaters to get the job done Friday as the Saints are unlikely to take this game very seriously. NO has failed to cover all four preseason home games the last two years. The two years before that saw them go a combined 0-8 in preseason games. Play on MINNESOTA

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This is an 8* Play on ATLANTA

Look for the Braves to bounce back from last night's embarrassing 9-2 loss to the Marlins. Did you know that Atlanta is 12-1 this season as a road favorite of -125 to 175? Or 23-6 in that role since the start of the 2017 season? Well they are. They were actually priced higher than that range last night with Dallas Keuchel on the mound, but he got chased after five innings with Miami up 8-0. Look for a better start Friday from Julio Teheran. This will be his fourth start of the year against the Marlins. The previous three have resulted in 18 scoreless innings and only nine hits allowed! So it's fair to say Teheran has had this division rival's number. Miami has scored way fewer runs that every other NL team, so last night's offensive explosion was a real rarity. Caleb Smith will pitch for the Marlins. While he's largely been effective, the Braves are going to be highly motivated tonight. Smith won't get much support. Play on ATLANTA

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This is a 10* play on the UNDER

The A's and White Sox play a daytime affair on Friday and this is one where Oakland has to take advantage. They are in a competitive Wild Card race and taking on a team that has generally played very poorly in the second half of the season. But our focus is on the total. The good news for the A's is that you have to figure starter Michael Fiers will pitch well here. He's unbeaten in his last 16 starts (8-0) with a 2.26 ERA. Fiers has never lost to Chicago in his career as he's 3-0 with a 1.83 ERA in seven starts and the ERA is even lower at Guaranteed Rate Field. He shut them out for 7+ innings at home last month as well. The White Sox are 28th in runs scored, so it's definitely a favorable match for Fiers. But we don't look for the A's to score all that many runs either today. They scored just one run on Wednesday in a loss to the Cubs across town. The Under is 23-7-1 their last 31 games vs. the AL Central. Under is 6-1-1 for the White Sox following an off day. Play UNDER Oakland-Chicago

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This is a 10* on SEATTLE

Our favorite play on the Thursday NFLX card is Seattle, who is now GETTING points at most shops for some reason. Denver did win the Hall of Fame Game, but was largely unimpressive in doing so. They got a late turnover and converted it into a game-winning touchdown with less than 90 seconds left. Prior to that, the Broncos offense had gained just 150 total yards. Seattle was winless in the preseason last year, so expect them to be motivated. Last year aside, Pete Carroll has been a great bet in these preseason games, going 22-14 SU including three perfect years, the most recent coming in 2017. This game is in Seattle, so the Seahawks ought to be more motivated to win one in front of the fans. We just don't think the Denver QB situation is very good right now behind Joe Flacco and quite honestly, we're not sure Flacco is any good. The Seahawks have strong group of running backs, which means they should be able to move the ball throughout the game, no matter whom is in at quarterback. Play on SEATTLE

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This is an 8* play on LOS ANGELES

The Sparks (LA) come into this one on a three-game win streak. They've covered in all three wins as well. The last two have come at home where they'll play again Thursday, hosting Phoenix. The visiting Mercury come in on a 5-game ATS win streak. They've lost two of those games though, both on the road. Phoenix has lost eight straight here at the Staples Center, a terrible sign for tonight. They did play their best game of the season over the weekend, beating Washington 103-82. But don't look for the Mercury to be that hot again as they shot 58.2% from the field in that easy victory. For the year, they shoot barely 40% on the road. This is a revenge spot for the Sparks after losing by 10 early in the season at Phoenix. They've gone 8-3 ATS the last 11 games and are 22-8-1 ATS when playing with three or more days rest. Play on LOS ANGELES

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