The Bears managed the 24-17 home win over a "work in progress" Tennessee team in Week 1, but now here on the road in Week 2, we're expecting Chicago to stumble. Houston enters off a big 29-27 division road win over Indianapolis. It was a tough opening game and the Texans found a way to win. They will be sky high for their home opener and we just can't see the Bears' offense keeping pace with CJ Stroud and company. Chicago QB Caleb Williams was just 14 of 29 for 93 yards (a league low) in the Bears' victory in Week 1, while Stroud was 24 of 32 for 234 yards and two TD's. The Bears were fortunate to get some defensive and special teams points but they can't rely on that. Chicago hasn't traveled well these past few years and now they've got a rookie QB making his first road start. Chicago has also failed to cover the spread in seven of its last eight road games following a SU victory. Look for Stroud and the Texans to get the job done with a statement home victory in front of the national audience.

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The 27-10 Connecticut Sun are on the road to take on the 24-13 Aces, and in our opinion, this one has "O-V-E-R" written all over it! The Sun play with the revenge factor after a recent 72-67 home loss, and that's significant for us to take note of, as Connecticut has in fact seen the total go "over" the number in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss vs. an opponent. Las Vegas is off back-to-back victories and it's seen the total go "under" in five straight, but note that the Aces have seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of their last 12 after playing to five or more straight "unders" in a row. Also, those 5 straight unders have kept this o/u line lower than it could be. The total was 164.5 when these teams met on Sept. 6th and has been more than 160 for each of the past 10 meetings. The last 2 LV games had totals close to 180! Kelsey Plum had 27 points for the Aces in the win over the Sun a couple of weeks ago, and you'll definitely want to keep your eyes on her here again tonight. With each team pushing the pace like we suspect, everything points to this total flying "over" the number sooner, rather than later.

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We've only played one game of the 2024/25 season, but Cleveland fans are already panicking after their team's 33-17 home loss to Dallas. But with four straight "winnable" games upcoming (Jacksonville this weekend, the Giants, Raiders, and Commanders before Philly and Cincinnati respectively after that), we think the visitors will bounce back on the road here in what we feel is a favorable matchup. The Jags are off the 20-17 road loss vs. the Dolphins as 3.5-point dogs. Just so you know, Cleveland hasn't started a season 0-2 since 2017, and suffice it to say, we don't expect that trend to be broken here in Jacksonville. DeShaun Watson got that awkward first game under his belt and the veteran will respond here in Week 2 in our estimation. Trevor Lawrence looked OK for the Jags, finishing with 162 yards, one TD, and zero INTs in last week's loss. Let's not overreact to Watson's Week 1 performance. Ditto for the Cleveland defense. It's much better than it displayed in the Dallas loss. We're happy to grab points in a game we expect Cleveland to win outright.

New Orleans dismantled Carolina 47-10 at home, but now hitting the road for the first time to face this talented Dallas defense, we're expecting a completely difference pace and tempo from the visitors. Dallas returns home off a successful 33-17 win over the Browns, and we also think that the Cowboys will be looking to protect the ball better here and establish the run game throughout. Add up these game plans and you have a contest that's decided by field position and in the trenches. With the high-scoring Week 1 results, this is an extra high o/u line. We feel that these are two of the best defenses in football. New Orleans was just 4-5 on the road last year, while Dallas was 8-0 at home. Let's not overreact to Saints' QB Derek Carr's performance. Throwing for three TD's and only 200 yards looks good on paper, but then we remember who they were playing in Week 1. It's going to be significantly more difficult here vs. the Cowboys, who looked really good in shutting down DeShaun Watson and company. The Under is the play!

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We really respect both these defenses but this total is too low. Last year's game had a total of 46.5 and Georgia exceeded that all by itself. The final score was 51-13. The Bulldogs already had 34 by halftime and could have scored more in the 2nd half if Kentucky had forced them to do. Even a really good defense can't stop the powerful Bulldogs. Georgia is already averaging better than 40 points per game. Kentucky just gave up 31 points to South Carolina last week. This year, at least the Wildcats play at home which means they should have more success in remaining competitive. They also have a new offensive coordinator in Bush Hamdan with a mandate to have a faster paced offense. The Bulldogs could go over this number again by themselves. But they won't need to, Kentucky is going to be helping to get this final score over the total. The play is the over!

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San Jose State is 2-0 and we feel it's going to get caught "looking past" its lowly opponent to its big road game at Washington State next week. A large part of that stems from the fact that the Spartans are off an emotional upset road win over Air Force last week. That wasn't just any victory as it came against a service academy and SJ State coach Ken Niumatalolo coached at Navy for 15 years. This is still a young Spartan team with a new coaching staff. Last weekend Kennesaw State fell 34-10 to Louisiana-Lafayette, with Davis Bryson going 9 of 13 for 93 yards. We've got Louisiana ranked a lot higher than SJ State though. The Owls are an experienced team and now they have a couple of FBS games under their belts. We feel they're flying under the radar and providing great value as substantial underdog. They easily covered the spread in their first road game, at 12 point loss at UTSA. We've also got UTSA ranked a lot higher than SJ State The Spartans don't possess a potent offense and that makes covering a large number like this difficult. Should they manage to get up by a couple of scores, they may take their foot off the gas in the second half as they begin to prepare for their big contest the following week. Grab the points, the play is Kennesaw State!

We don't only expect Texas Tech to win this game, but we believe the Raiders will do so in blowout fashion in this favorable home matchup. UNT is 2-0 SU, but it's yet to face a quality opponent. Last week it pulled away for the 35-20 win over Stephen F. Austin. North Texas' QB Chandler Morris has already made a few mistakes, and that clearly won't get the job done here on the road in Week 3. Going from facing the Lumberjacks at home to facing a Big 12 team on the road will obviously be a huge difference. Texas Tech will be looking to take out its frustrations on someone after last week's 37-16 loss to Washington State. What better way than to take on a weaker team from within their own state. Behern Morton was 34 of 48 for 322 yards last week and we believe he'll be a big difference-maker in the final outcome of this one. The Raiders scored more than 50 in their first game here. They will put up a big number again as The Mean Green allowed 476 yards per game and 37.1 points per game last season. UNT will hang for awhile but eventually won't be able to keep pace.

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We expect Leeds to beat Burnley in this early Championship match. Neither of these clubs want to be here. Both believe that they belong back in the Premier League. Burnley was recently relegated. Leeds played here in the Championship last season and narrowly missed getting promoted back to the top flight. The Whites are absolutely on a mission to escape the Championship at the second try. They started this campaign slowly but have found their form with consecutive 2-0 victories over Hull City and Sheffield United. Already not as strong a squad as the one which previously dominated down here, Burnley have some serious injury concerns at the all-important centre-back position. Hjalmar Ekdal, Jordan Beyer and Maxime Esteve all expected to miss. That will cost them with streaking Leeds securing the maximum points. Leeds is the play!

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Many think UNLV is a sexy "dark-horse" pick to qualify for the CFP in January, and while that may or may not go on to be true, we do expect the Rebels to keep their recent offensive momentum rolling here against a Kansas team that's looking to rebound from an upset 23-17 loss at Illinois as a five-point favorite. Before that game, Kansas had scored 48 or more in 3 straight. These teams played last year and the Jayhawks won 49-36 on Boxing Day. It was a complete shootout and all signs point to another high-scoring affair here in our opinion as well. That game had a total of 65. This lower one is giving a lot of value. UNLV is off a 72-14 victory over Utah Tech and is playing a very up-tempo brand of football. With both teams putting up big numbers, we think for sure this Week 3 matchup has "over" written all over it as well!

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Plenty of reasons for us to like the over here. Buffalo's defense looked shaky in last week's 34-28 home win over the Cardinals. Josh Allen was great against the Dolphins last year, completing 81 percent of his passes while averaging 340 yards passing per game. He also averaged 42 yards per game rushing. Despite winning 20-17 last weekend, the Dolphins still allowed the Jags to rush for the seventh-most rushing yards last weekend. Keep in mind that 3 of the past 4 meetings have finished with more than 60 points. Each offense looked "rusty" in the first half, and each looked a lot better in the second. We look for that offensive trend to carry over here on Thursday with the final score finishing with more than 50 points.

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Arizona State is in a big new conference this year and it has a golden opportunity to start off 3-0 before its first Big 12 game. The Sun Devils hammered Wyoming 48-7 in Week 1, then pulled away for the 30-23 home win over an SEC team (Mississippi State) last week. With several much tougher games on the horizon, this one takes on added importance. Texas State is also 2-0, most recently beating UTSA by a score of 49-10. Before that, the Bobcats beat Lamar. A Big 12 opponent, even one brand new to the conference, is a big step up. Arizona State running back Cam Skattebo was the AP national player of the week after he rushed for 33 times for 262 yards in the win over Mississippi State. He will have another big game. The Bobcats are only 1-3 against the number the past 4 times that they were home underdogs. Sun Devils move to 3-0!
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San Diego is in a dog fight with Arizona for the second spot in the NL West and for the top spot in the NL wild-card race, but the Mariners are on the outside of the playoff picture, looking in right now. They need this game even more than their guests. After last night's 7-3 loss, we're expecting the home side to respond, before a four-game home series starting here tomorrow vs. Texas. We really respect the Padres' Michael King (12-8, 3.10 ERA), but Bryan Woo (7-2, 2.36) at this price is the correct call in our opinion. Woo has been particularly effective at home as well, in fact, unbeaten by going 4-0 with a tiny 1.40 ERA and 0.667 WHIP! Those are incredible numbers. Considering the circumstances and Woo's home dominance, we do indeed believe this to be the very definition of "great line value." The play is Seattle!

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This is the second game of a three-game series in New York, with both teams fighting for playoff positioning. The Yanks hammered the Royals 10-4 in yesterday's opener. They control the AL East for now, while the Royals own the second AL Wild Card spot. We have a solid starting pitching matchup here, but we feel that the home-field advantage combined with the Yankees superior hitting can't be overlooked. New York averages more than 5 runs per game. Seth Lugo gets the call for the Royals and he can be tough. We just believe he's in the wrong place at the wrong time here. Also, keep in mind that he has a career 6.00 ERA at Yankee Stadium. Marcus Stroman (10-7, 4.03) is off an outing to forget, but he has the talent and pedigree to bounce back in this spot. Stroman's last home start was a beauty as he allowed just 2 runs in 7 innings. He's also 4-1 with an ERA of 2.52 over his career against KC. We say it's the visitors getting too much respect in this line. You don't get the Yankees at home at this price very often and we're taking advantage!
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We have a great Monday night matchup to open the season and in our opinion, everything points to this total flying "over" the number as the game comes down the stretch. I just a real common sense play here, as New York will be looking to get the most out of its 40-year-old investment under center. Aaron Rodgers will also feel he has something to prove this season obviously. These teams haven't played since 2020, and the 49ers won that contest by a score of 31-13 in New Jersey. We're definitely expecting a much more competitive game this time around. Rodgers has plenty of weapons to utilize, including Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson. The defense though is going to be tested facing Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey at home. San Francisco's last 10 home games have all finished over the 40 mark and 4 of the past 5 (and 7 of the 10) finished with 44 or more. Admittedly these are two good defenses, but in our opinion, everything points to these two dynamic quarterbacks "stealing the headlines." SF cannot be stopped and NY will have to score to keep up. This number has fallen from when it came out, right past the key number of 44, is low. Over is the play.

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Whenever the LA Rams and Detroit Lions get together, the focus turns to the two veteran QB's. Detroit got Jared Goff, who led his team to an NFC Championship last year, while LA got Matt Stafford, who led the Rams to a Super Bowl championship in his first season. The last time these teams met was in January, the final score was 24-23. The last time these teams met in the regular season was back in 2021 and the Rams won 28-19 at home. We're expecting a similar hard-fought and ultimately lower-scoring battle (relative to the very high total) here as well. Detroit is 8-1 in its last nine at home and the last thing it'll want to do here is to try and turn this into a "shootout" against Stafford. We're expecting Detroit to get Goff to be a game manager here and to control the tempo of this one. We should also mention that the Lions secondary is much improved from the last time that the Rams saw it. It was a weakness last year but will be a strength this season. With each offense getting out to a tentative start like we suspect, we're expecting this total to fall "under" the big number once it's all said and done!

Both teams have more questions than answers heading into the 2024/25 season, but we say that Atlanta will find a way to get the job done in Week 1 at home. Both teams looked poor in the preseason, going 0-3. But, let's not read TOO much into those results. We just have very little faith in this Steelers' offense and in beleaguered and banged-up veteran QB Russell Wilson. With Wilson iffy with a calf issues, we're also not sold on Justin Fields, who Wilson had already beaten to earn the Week 1 start, prior to his injury. The Steelers finished 10-7 last year, but that was only good enough for third place in the AFC North. Atlanta was 7-10 and missed the playoffs, but with Kirk Cousins ready to go, Wilson/Fields will have difficulties keeping pace. Tomlin remains a great coach but the Falcons are the more complete team entering the season. Lay the points, the play is indeed on Atlanta!

The weight of expectations weighs heavy on Josh Allen and the Bills this year. A matchup right out of the gate this year with the Arizona Cardinals provides a great opportunity to start the season with a victory. This is a difficult place to play. In our estimation, the home-field advantage will prove to be a huge difference-maker for Buffalo and the final outcome of this contest once it's all said and done. Kyler Murray missed nine games last year, but the Cardinals are still hoping he'll be able to finally "find himself" here in his third year. They drafted WR Marvin Harrison Jr., which will for sure help in the long-term but will still need some time to develop any real meaningful chemistry. The Cards were terrible defensively as well, allowing 26.8 PPG, second-worst in the league. Allen is back, So to is RB James Cook. With several injuries to Arizona's starting defense to open the season, we expect Allen to find a way to not only win this game but to do so in convincing fashion; lay the points, the play is Buffalo!

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Denmark is looking to make it two in a row here after posting a 2-0 win over Switzerland in its last UEFA Nations League contest. Patrick Dorgu came off the bench to score the first goal. Serbia is off a goalless draw vs. Spain, and they are fortunate to have come away with a single point after a disappointing home performance. They're still the favorites to get relegated from this group. Now on the road, we're expecting Serbia to struggle again on the offensive end. And if recent history is any precedence, then the home side has to be loving its chances today as it has gone 3-0-1 in the last four in this series. Additionally, note that the visitor has been held scoreless the last three in this series as well. Denmark is undefeated on home soil since 2022 and we don't see that streak ending here. In fact, Denmark has won 11 of its last 12 home matches, drawing the other against Switzerland in March. The Danes are full of confidence and will come away with another win.

USC is off the 27-20 Week 1 win over LSU in Las Vegas as a four-point underdog and now the Trojans will take a big step down in class. The Trojans are now in the more difficult Big Ten, and with a week off before a trip to Michigan, followed by the heart of the conference schedule, we're absolutely expecting the home side to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish. USC will put up a crooked number but Utah State won't be rolling over. These types of nationally televised affairs are huge for these smaller schools. Last week the Aggies posted 646 total yards of offense in their 36-14 win over Robert Morris. Bryson Barnes went 11 of 21 for 198 yards and two TD's in last week's win, while also rushing for another 88 yards and a rushing TD. Miller Moss was 27 of 36 for 378 yards and a TD for the Trojans. With these two QB's pushing the pace offensively like we suspect here on Saturday night, everything does indeed point to this total flying "over" the number sooner, rather than later!

The New York Red Bulls will host Sporting KC for the first time in more than 3 years this evening. In fact, Sporting will play on the east coast for the first time in a year. This will not be an easy trip. The Red Bulls have gone the playoffs 24 times, more than any club in MLS history. They are eager to bounce back from their first home loss of the year last weekend in a 2-0 defeat to Philadelphia. Prior to that defat the Red Bulls were on a nine-game unbeaten run in league play. New York will miss some players but KC's absences are arguably more significant. Leading scorer William Agada is suspended, and winger Stephen Afrifa has earned his first callup to the Canadian Men's National Team. Also, Designated Player Nemanja Radoja is injured. The Red Bulls have more home wins than any other MLS team since 2010 and they will earn another one tonight.

With a spread like this, clearly the oddsmakers believe these teams are evenly matched. Or at least that's what they're trying to lead us to believe. We feel that Cincinnati though could or should in fact be a bigger favorite here at home. Remember, the Bearcats won at Pittsburgh last season and with 15 starters, this is a much improved team. Pittsburgh is off a 55-24 win over Kent as a 24-point favorite at home, but now on the road, we believe the Panthers will struggle. Cincinnati is off a 38-20 win over Towson at home, unable to cover the large 34.5-point spread. In our opinion, the home-field advantage can't be overlooked as a very real deciding factor. Pittsburgh got a big game out of Eli Holstein last week, but we don't see him duplicating that here against this much more difficult Bearcats' defensive unit. Cincinnati finished with 658 total yards of offense last week and the defense forced one fumble and posted three sacks. Up against a Pitt defense which returned only 4 starters, look for the Bearcats to find a way to get the job done in front of the hometown crowd in Week 2.

Both teams are confident heading into this one at 1-0. Duke managed the 26-3 win over Elon, almost covering the 24.5-point spread, while Northwestern held on for a 13-6 victory over Miami Ohio as a 3-point fav. The new players now have a game under their belts. Clearly the oddsmakers feel this will be a competitive game by setting a spread like this, but they're also trying to convince us that this will be extremely low scoring and we're just not buying it. This game could go "over" this small number and still be an overall lower-scoring game and that's what we're expecting. This is the fourth straight year these teams have faced off, Duke winning each of the previous three. Keep in mind that all 3 games produced more than 50 points. Mike Wright will be able to move the ball a lot better in the Wildcats' temporary lake-side home, but the defense will have a more difficult time this week. QB Maalik Murphy had a big day for Duke last week, and we're expecting him to once again push the pace here. While we're not calling for this one to go "over" by halftime or anything, everything does indeed point to the total eclipsing the very low posted number as the game comes down the stretch; the play is the "over!"

This game is being played in Brazil, the first ever NFL game in South America. These types of scenarios often have a way of leading to more of a defensive lower-scoring outcome, due to the unfamiliarity of their surroundings. We have two really good QB's going head-to-head here, but we're expecting each side to put an added emphasis onto establishing the run game while on offense. That helps take pressure off their defense and to keep the opposing QB on the bench. It also keeps the clock moving. Keep in mind that this is a very high total, much higher than the total of 46 that these teams had when they last faced each. Three of GB's last four games finished with 45 or less. The Eagles last 2 games finished with 41 or less. They'll score but not enough to surpass this high line. We're on the "under!"

With a spread like this, the oddsmakers clearly believe that these two sides are evenly matched, and for the most part they are. They're very familiar with each other. Baltimore does play with "revenge" here after losing 17-10 in the Playoffs last year, but note that Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce are 3-1 in the regular season vs. Baltimore. Last year KC failed to cover the spread, and in fact lost outright at home as 4-point favorites to the Lions in Week 1 and they'll be looking to avoid another upset this season. One big note though, Kelce did not play in that Week 1 game last year, but he will be this season. Yes, Baltimore did add RB Derrick Henry to their line-up, but he'll need some time to adjust. We feel that this one sets up really well for KC; lay the points, the play is indeed on Kansas City!

The Royals have a 4.5-game lead over the Red Sox for the final Wildcard spot, but they're still 4.5 games behind the Guardians for the division lead. As of writing, Minnesota has jumped over the Royals into second in the division. They say that divisional contests are the most important and that they almost always mean the most to the home side and that's the case here in the finale of this three-game series on Wednesday (especially with the Twins coming to the town the following day, followed by a tough series at the Yanks!) Ben Lively (11-8, 3.92 ERA) gets the call for the visitors, and he was lucky to earn a no-decision for his effort vs. the Rockies last time out, getting crushed for six runs off nine hits over 4 innings. Overall Lively has been decent this year, but we still give a big nod to Royals' starter Seth Lugo (14-8, 3.12), who is off an unfortunate no-decision to the Astros on Friday, allowing one run over seven innings with nine K's. Lugo looked great and we say he's the correct call in this spot here at home; lay the price with confidence, the play is Kansas City!

Las Vegas is off back-to-back wins and is now 20-12 and second in the Western Conference. After a run of ATS losses, the world champions covered the spread in both games. Suffice it to say, we're expecting the Aces to carry that momentum over here and not only win but win big and cover this larger spread at the same time. This game takes on added importance as well for the home side, which will hit the road for four straight tough Eastern Conference matchups. Las Vegas also won't be taking the Sky lightly, as they had to hold on for the tight 77-75 win in Chicago in late August, unable to cover the 9.5-point spread. The Sky are moving in the opposite direction, losers of six straight. But with three straight at home starting on the weekend, there's a very real chance the Sky will get caught "looking ahead." When you add up all of these strong situational factors working in favor of the home side and when you consider the obvious talent gap, we're definitely going to lay the points and expect a blowout here; the play is Las Vegas!

This is the second game of a four-game series between the AL rivals and in my opinion, Luis Castillo (11-12, 3.65 ERA) and the visitors are well worth the price of admission in this one. Off yesterday's loss, Seattle is five games back of the final AL Wildcard spot, so time's running out. The road ahead doesn't get any easier for Seattle, making these types of games really important. Seattle though has the starting pitching to make a late run at a playoff spot. Luis Castillo is still a top notch hurler and Seattle is 4-0 his last 4 starts against the A's. Castillo will be up against Oakland scheduled starter JT Ginn (0-0, 5.19), who was shelled for four runs over four innings in a loss to the Reds on Thursday. It was his first MLB start and suffice it to say he looked way more comfortable out of the bullpen in the early going. This is a big mismatch, and it makes this a price in which we have no issues at all in laying; lay the price, the play is Seattle!

After their national embarrassment in Week 0, the Seminoles have a lot of work to do to get back into the CFP talk. Florida State did inexplicably fall to Georgia Tech 24-21 as a ten-point favorite, but we're expecting the home side to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish. Florida State also won't have forgotten its incredibly "close call" vs. Boston College last year, holding on for the 31-29 victory as a 27.5-point favorite. Last week's loss was in Dublin, so perhaps that really did have an effect on FSU. This is Boston College's first game of the year and its first game with Bill O'Brien as head coach. DJ Uiagalelei only had 173 yards last week, but we anticipate him moving the ball much more effectively here at home. Thomas Castellanos is a competent dual-threat QB for BC, but he owns just a 57.1 completion percentage. The moral of the story?! Let's not overreact to one bad performance. We're laying the points on FLORIDA STATE on Monday night!

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If Seattle is going to make a late run at one of the AL Wildcard spots, it's going to have to win "these" types of series with Oakland. Here's a golden opportunity for the Mariners to make a real charge in the standings with a favorable series and game in Oakland starting on Monday. The A's went 1-2 in their most recent series loss at Texas. We do have two really good starters going head-to-head here in the Mariners' Logan Gilbert (7-10, 3.09) and the Athletics' Osvaldo Bido (5-3, 3.21.) We really respect what Bido has done but don't currently have much faith in the A's bullpen and relievers. We also feel that Gilbert's experience in this moment will prove to be big for the Mariners. He had 10 strikeouts and 0 walks last game and he has a 2.86 career ERA at Oakland. The Astros are setting a blistering pace and the Mariners need to answer the bell. They will win this game. *NL West GOY

10* Wyoming (NON-CONF GOM)

We're not predicting an outright win or anything, but we think that Wyoming will comfortably cover with the larger spread that it has been afforded in this one. Last year the Cowboys went 9-4 overall, including 7-5-1 ATS, while Arizona State was 3-9 SU and 5-6-1 ATS. Wyoming has a new head coach in Jay Sawvel, who was the defensive coordinator last year. The Cowboys were third in the MWC in stopping the run and overall they conceded just 22.9 PPG. The offense revolves around the run game and Harrison Waylee. Evan Svoboda gets the call under center and he'll be looking to bring balance to this Wyoming offense this season. Arizona State makes its debut as a Big 12 Football school. ASU only averaged 17.8 PPG last year so it went out and got Michigan State transfer Sam Leavitt, who has decent receivers, but a new offensive line. It's going to take him some time to get used to his new team, and that leaves the door here open for Wyoming down the stretch; grab the points, the play is indeed on the Cowboys!

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10* UNDER Mariners/Angels 

These teams have been involved in a couple higher-scoring affairs of late, including in the Mariners 9-5 win last night, but for two really good reasons, we believe this number will fall "under" the number tonight (note as well that previous to last night's setback, the Angels had played to three straight "unders.") The two reasons are these starting pitchers, as we're anticipating a classic "duel" here. Seattle goes with Bryan Woo (6-2, 2.05 ERA), who owns a sharp 68:9 K:BB. He'll be opposed by Tyler Anderson (10-12, 3.41), who took a hard-luck loss last time out after limisting the Jays to two runs off four hits over five innings. He owns a highly respectable 122:62 K:BB. He's been a work-horse for the Angels all year and as stated off the top, all signs point to a classic "duel." So the play is indeed on the "under!"

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10* Padres (UNDERDOG OF THE YEAR)

We think this is a great spot to pull the trigger on the slight underdog Padres here. Great value, as Tampa is playing poorly now. the Rays have fallen off and are now six games back of the final wildcard spot. San Diego is off back-to-back losses to St. Louis and now sits one game back of Arizona in the tight and competitive NL West. Recent form of these starters though is the other main reason we like San Diego here. Taj Bradley who has surrendered seven home runs over his five-start winless skid. In his last outing he was shelled for six runs over six innings to the Dodgers. Martin Perez is 1-0 with a 2.70 ERA in five starts since coming over to the Padres from the Pirates. All in all, unreal value in our opinion on the better in form starter and team overall; the play is indeed on San Diego!

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8* Minnesota (BLOWOUT)

These teams have new faces on both sides of the ball. Each had a sub-par season last year, and each faces difficulties this season. Both start new QB's. UNC lost star QB Drake Maye and has two different guys to test out to start the season in Conner Harrell and Max Johnson. Each has experience and is decent, but we believe will take some time to fit in this system. Both teams struggled on defense last year and each hired new defensive coordinators. Minnesota also has a new QB in Max Brosmer, but he was the No. 1 FCS QB last year at New Hampshire, finishing with a 29:6 TD:INT and throwing for 3,459 passing yards. Both teams have strong running games as well. We say Brosmer keeps his team competitive in this one and that it's the UNC QB's that take some time to figure things out. Outright win is possible, but the official call is to grab as many points as you can with MINNESOTA.

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10* Red Sox (ASSASSIN)

Toronto won the opener of this four-game series by a score of 7-3, but the Red Sox have bounced back and won the next two. We say that momentum gets carried over here. The Red Sox now only sit three games back of the final AL Wildcard, while the Jays are now eight games back. Bowden Francis is 7-3 with a 4.02 ERA after a dominant nine-inning wni ove rthe Angels last time out, posting 12 K's. The rookie has looked dominant of late, but we say regression is in order for sure here in this difficult road venue and that Kutter Crawford, who is 8-11 with a 4.19 ERA is the correct call here at home. Crawford has had back-to-back "tough luck" starts, conceding just five runs on five hits over 11 innings vs. Arizona and Baltimore. We say the momentum that Bosont has created does indeed get carried over here; lay the reasonable price, the play is Boston!

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8* Red Sox (TOP SIDE)

The Jays have won five straight, but we think they'll now stumble here against a Red Sox team looking to snap a four-game slide. boston now sits five games back of Minnesota for the final AL Wildcard spot. Toronto is eight games back. Cooper Criswell is 5-4 with a 4.41 ERA, but he's excelled in a starters role this season by posting a 3.88 ERA over 14 starts, compared to a 7.30 ERA over six relief appearances. Jays' rookie Yariel Rodriguez is 1-5 with a 4.40 ERA, but he's regressed of late, allowing nine runs over his last nine innings of work. In fact he's failed to finish five innings in three of his last five starts. Look for Boston to bounce back and to find a way to get the job done!

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10* Twins (IL GOW)

Both the Braves and the Twins are in tight wildcard races in their respective leagues, but this is a starting pitching matchup that definitely favors the home side in our opinion. The oddsmakers are "sleeping" on Bailey Ober (12-5, 3.54 ERA), who over his last 71 1/3's innings of work has gone 7-1 with a 2.09 ERA. He's fared well in all IL starts as well by going 4-1 with a 3.65 ERA over 15 such instances in his career (note that overall Ober has posted 11 straight quality starts.) Max Fried (7-7, 3.57) counters for the visitors and while he looked decent in his last outing vs. the Phillies, previous to that he'd gone 0-4 with a 6.81 ERA. It's difficult to entirely judge where Fried is at with his performance still in our opinion, especially in this spot and difficult road venue. The value here for sure lies with Minnesota!

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10* Orioles (AL NON-DIV GOY)

We think this is a great spot to pull the trigger on the home side. It's a great price. We really respect Yusei Kikuchi (2-0, 2.42 ERA), who has been sharp for his new team since coming over from the Jays, but we feel that his sparkling numbers are unsustainable now moving forward. Dean Kremer (6-9, 4.30) counters for the home side. This is the finale of a four-game series. The Orioles are in a race with the Yanks for the division lead, but have used two come-from-behind efforts to win their L2 games, and now they're looking to wrap up this series before hitting the road for six straight. Houston leads the AL West, but it's dropped four of its last five. The Astros will still be without slugger Yordan Alvarez, who has a neck injury. Alex Bregman is also injured. Kikuchi is 6-9 with a 4.37 ERA overall. He's been rejuvenated since coming over from Toronto for the Astros, and he's had success vs. Houston throughout his career, but we still feel he's getting too much respect on the road here in this pressure-packed situation. Kremer has won his last two starts and he's 3-0 with a 1.14 ERA in three career starts vs. Houston. Baltimore at this price at home with Kremer on the mound is the correct call here and warrants a play of this magnitude; the play is Baltimore!

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8* SMU (TOP SIDE)

We're going to say that Nevada will have a difficult time moving the ball and keeping pace with SMU, which finished 8-0 in the AAC last year, beating Tulane in the AAC Championship Game. But now the Mustangs are transitioning over to the ACC. SMU though is projected to finish in the top half of what really is a big conference now. Last year the Mustangs finished 22nd in the FBS in passing offnese with 278.4 YPG, while going 40th in rushing. Overall they averged 48.7 PPG, while allowing just 17.6 (QB Preston Stone is back under center this year as well.) SMU has a strong run game as well. Nevada on the other hand finished just 2-10. Ken Wilson is out as head coach, and Jeff Choate is in. Last year the Wolf Pack finished 111th in the country in passing offense with 175.2 YPG, while finishing 98th in rushing offense. Overall Nevada averaged only 17.8 PPG, while allowing 33.4. Brendon Lewis is the Week 0 starting QB for Nevada, last year he had two TD's and six INT's. Also note that Nevada had to replace its four starting WR's from last season. Everything points to a lop-sided blowout, so lay the points, the play is indeed on SMU!

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8* Guardians (DESTRUCTION)

Cleveland's recent slide has dropped it to just a one-game lead over the Royals for the No. 1 spot in the AL Central. Texas remains 9.5 games back in the AL West despite 4-1 in its last five, including taking yesterday's opener by a score of 5-3. Cleveland on the other hand has dropped six of its last seven, including three in a row. Note that Cleveland has responded well in this spot for bettors, going 4-1 in its last five after three or more straight losses in a row. Jon Gray is 5-4 with a 3.75 ERA for the Rangers, but is just 1-2 with a 4.24 ERA on the road. Ben Lively is 10-8 with a 3.68 ERA for the Guardians, most recently conceding just two runs over six innings, but taking an unfortunate loss vs. the Brewers in his last outing. Over 120 innings he owns a respectable 98:40 K:BB and we feel at this price that he's the correct call in this matchup; so lay the price, the play is Cleveland!

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10* Arsenal (GOW)

Both teams come in off Week 1 victories, but in the end we expect Arsenal's depth to be the difference-maker in this one. Aston Villa got by West Ham 2-1, while Arsenal edged by Wolverhampton by a score of 2-0. We think Villa will also have difficulty finding the back of the net in this one. The Lions have only started the season by winning B2B games three times in their history in the EPL, and we don't see that happening today, despite having the home field. Dating to last year Arsenal has now won seven EPL matches. It shook the summer cobwebs off with the clean sheet last weekend and everything points to a more convincing victory on Saturday in our opinion; lay the price, the play is Arsenal!

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10* UNDER Mets/Padres (NL NON-DIV TOM)

These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, including in the Mets 8-3 win in yesterday's series opener, but everything points to more of a "duel" here on Friday finally in our opinion. The Padres lost their second straight and they've now also seen the total go "over" in four straight. Despite yesterday's high-scoring loss though, note that the Friars have still seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. More than anything though it comes down to the starting pitchers for us, with Paul Blackburn (1=1, 3.68 ERA) getting the call for the visitors, and Joe Musgrove (3-4, 4.97) countering for the home side. Blackburn is off an unfortunate no-decision vs. the Marlins on Sunday after allowing no runs over six innings and striking out four. He now has a 20:7 K:BB for his new club and he'll have to continue to be sharp here throwing opposite Musgrove, who conceded just a single run while striking out six over five innings in a no-decision vs. the Rockies in his last start. Musgrove continues to see more and more innings after an injury and to us appears headed in the correct direction, sitting with a 51:18 K:BB over 58 innings thus far. Long story short, we see this being a defensive "duel," and will therefore be playing the "under!" 

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10* Mets runline (ASSASSIN)

We're going to lay the price here with Luis Severino and the Mets on the runline option. Severino (8-6, 3.91 ERA) and the Mets are just 1.5 games back of the Braves for the NL's final Wild Card spot after their 4-3 win on Wednesday over the Orioles. Severino is coming off one of the best starts of his career, going nine innings and allowing just four hits and striking out eight with zero runs allowed. He also dominated the Padres in his only start vs. them in his career, allowing two runs over seven innings in a victory when he was a member with the Yanks. Dylan Cease (12-9, 3.46) counters for the home side, and he most recently allowed three runs over six innings in a win over Colorado last weekend. He was however already shelled for seven runs over 3 2/3's innings vs. the Mets back on June 16th. In what we anticipate will be a competitive game, we feel the value here for sure lies in laying the price for the extra 1. runs of insurnace; the play is New York on the runline!

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10* Riders/Argos UNDER (TOW)

These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but we're expecting a much tighter battle here on Thursday night. The Argos play with revenge after falling 30-23 at Saskatchewan back in Week 5, and note that Toronto has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 12 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent. The Riders can't be happy after squandering the lead three different times last week in their eventual 27-24 loss to Montreal. Toronto is off two high-scoring games vs. Calgary, losing 27-23 on the road, and then bouncing back to win 39-25 in Week 10. Now the Argos welcome back QB Chad Kelly, making his first start of the year. Kelly's been out since May after getting sidelined due to violation of league policy. He'll have his hands full with this now desperate Riders side looking to stop a four-game slide. Saskatchewn is averaging 20.3 PPG over its last six games and the last thing it'll want to do here is turn this into a shootout on the road. We say the conditions are right for more of a defensive battle than what the oddsmakes are leading us to believe; the play is the "under!" 

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10* Mariners runline (ASSASSIN)

We had a play on Seattle on the runline last night, and where that one came up short, we now for sure love how Wednesday's finale sets up to be a very competitive battle. The Mariners lost the opener 3-0, and the followed that up with a 6­-3 loss last night. The Dodgers scored three runs in the bottom of the eighth and the Mariners have now lost seven of their last eight. They're 6.5 games back of a Wildcard spot. It's played like garbage of late, but Seattle has fantastic starting pitching, including the guy taking the hill tonight. Logan Gilbert is 7-9 with a 2.96 ERA and 155 to 29 K:BB so far this season (he owns a sharp 19:3 K:BB in August alone.) He'll be opposed by Jack Flaherty (9-5, 3.06), who has been great for his new team overall, but who still owns a poor 5.91 ERA in two previous starts vs. Seattle. While the outright win is clearly possible, we feel much more comfortable laying this reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurnace; the play is Seattle on the runline option!

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10* Mariners runline (ASSASSIN)

Seattle is 6.5-games back now in the AL Wildcard race after yesterday's 3-0 loss. The Mariners have in fact lost six of their last seven. They seem doomed to skid completely out of relevance, but we think they'll put up a much more competitive performance here on Tuesday finally. This is a favorable pitching matchup with Bryce Miller (9-7, 3.29 ERA) starting for the Mariners, and Walker Buehler (1-4, 6.02) countering for the home side side. Miller shut the Tigers out over seven innings and struck out nine, but he still only earned a no-decision for his effort. Buehler gave up four runs over three innings and also earned a no-decision vs. the Brewers in his last outing. Buehler has now conceded at least three runs in each of his last six starts. The play is Seattle on the runline option!

AAA Sports

10* Mets (IL GOW)

The Orioles are tied atop the AL East with the Yanks and can ill afford to take the foot off the gas, but we still definitely feel that this one favors the hungrier and more desperate home side. New York sits two games back of Atlanta for the final Wild card. Baltimore lost two of three at Boston, but won the final 4-2 yesterday. After this the Orioles face the Astros and Dodgers, while the Mets face the Padres and D-Backs. The road ahead is a tough one for both, but this starting pitching matchup for sure favors the home side, with the unremarkable Trevor Rogers (2-11, 4.89 ERA) going for the visitors and the rock-steady David Peterson (7-1, 3.04) countering for New York. Rogers was shelled for five runs in his last outing, while Peterson went six scoreless; the play is New York!

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10* Packers/Broncos UNDER (BEST OF BEST)

The Packers opened the season with an upset 23-10 win over the Browns, and we're expectng a similar hard-fought and ultimately lower-scoring defensive battle here as well. Denver opened with a high-scoring 34-30 win over Indianapolis, but after turning the ball over three times in that offensive affair, we're expecting a much more conservative approach here at home in Week 2. Green Bay has already said that its starters would see little to no action in this one. Denver is expected to start many of its starters in this one, including rookie QB Bo Nix. He's battling for the opening spot vs. Zach Wilson and Jarrett Stidham. We just see the Packers killing clock throughout this one and we also don't see Denver running up the score. All things considered, this number is much too high in our opinion, so the play is the "under!" 

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10* OVER Yanks/Tigers (SITUATIONAL SLUG-FEST)

Despite a couple of decent starters going head-to-head in the finale of this three-game series in Detroit, this one sets up to be more of an offensive slug-fest in our opinion. Marcus Stroman (8-6, 4.01 ERA) and Tarik Skubal (14-4, 2.53) have been workhorses for their teams, but we feel that this O/U line is still low. Detroit has now seen the total go "under" in five straight after yesterday's 4-0 win, but note that the Tigers have in fact seen the total soar "over" the number in eight of their last 11 after playing to five or more straight "unders" in a row. Also note that the Yanks have seen the total go "over" the number in five of their last six in trying to avenge a shutout road loss as a fav vs. an opponent. The overall "situation" points to this one flying "over" the number sooner, rather than later!

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10* Man City (ASSASSIN)

A fair price here on a team looking for an unprecedented fifth straight EPL title on Sunday afternoon. These teams met just a little over two weeks ago in the USA and Man City went on to secure the comfortable 4-2 win, and that was without several starters. Man City has to be feeling comfortable in this spot, as they've won six straight in this series. Pep Guardiola makes his official first EPL start for Chelsea, which enters the season dealing with several major defensive issues. Man City is unbeaten in its last four visits to Stamford Bridge and we're predicting an outright in regulation this time around; lay the price, the play is indeed on Man City!

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6* Jairzinho Rozenstruik (BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT)

This should be an explosive match. Tai Tuivasa is clearly a dangerous man, but he's the slower of these two beasts and he has much less gas in the tank than Jairzinho Rozenstruik. Rozenstruik will be able to survive the first few minutes of this fight, and after that he'll be able to control it completely. Tuivasa has lost four in a row and has zero confidence at this point. They're exactly the same height and weight, yet Rozenstruik has a three-inch reach advantage. Tuivasa has poor defense as well, getting hit 5.05 times every 60 seconds, compared to just 2.78 strikes allowed by Rozenstruik. This line could or should in fact be larger in our opinion, so lay the price with confidence on Rozenstruik!

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10* OVER Lions/Chiefs (NON-CONF TOW)

Here's a great situational play. Let's not read too much into either team's Week 1 result. Detroit is off a 14-3 loss at the Giants, while Kansas City is off a 26-13 loss at Jacksonville. Both teams have big playoff aspirations once again this year and while the starters for each side will once again see little to no playing time here, we're anticipating a much more wide-open offensive affair this time around. With each team opening things up offensively this week, look for this total to fly "over" the number sooner, rather than later!

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8* play on Arsenal -2 goals.

We're expecting Arsenal to lay the hammer down here and win by a score of 4-1 or even 5-1. If you do play a total, consider the over. Wolverhampton might not even get a goal here, and Arsenal could still push this total over the number by itself. Either way, we not only expect Arsenal to win this game, but we expect it to do so in blowout fashion. Gary O'Neil's men are looking to knock off Manchester City this season, as aspirations are tremendous for the home side. And a blowout victory at home to kick things off will go a long way in sending an early message. Arsenal has won two straight this month. The Wolves have lost their last two EPL openers, and everything points to another blowout loss here in this difficult road venue as well; the play is Arsenal!

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8* play on Newcastle -1.5 goals.

The Magpies have had to go through plenty of adversity over the last few months, but they had a great preseason, winning five of a possible six. Last year Newcastle found the back of the net in all 19 home games, and we're predicting that they'll do that early and often here in this favorable opening-day matchup. Southampton is back in the big time, but note that the Saints have prevailed in just two of their previous 24 gameweek one bouts in the top flight. Newcastle has to be feeling confident, as it has won five straight in this series, most recently a 3-1 setback at St. James Park in April 2023; lay the 1.5 goals and expect a blowout with Newcastle!

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8* play on Liverpool -1.5 goals.

The Tractor Boys are out of the exile from the to flight of English Football, but they run into a motivated Reds side that plays its first game under the guidance of Arne Slot. Liverpool stumbled in its preseason opener, but then won four straight on the spin vs. Real Beti, Arsenal, Man U and Sevilla. Ipswich Town had a strong preseason as well, going 3-1 overall. But Liverpool is on a mission to open the season and opens healthy. We expect the visitors to not only win this game, but to do so in blowout fashion; the play is Liverpool!

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10* UNDER (EAST MEETS WEST)

These are the top two teams in their respective divisions, so it's a classic "East meets West" battle in the Prairies on Friday night. Last week the Riders settled for a 22-22 tie with Ottawa, and we're expecting another hard-fought and ultimately lower-scoring battle here vs. Montreal as well. The Als cruised to a 33-23 win at home over Hamilton last weekend. Montreal held on for the 20-16 home win over the Riders as a 3.5-point favorite, and everything points to a similar final combined score here in Saskatchewan as well. Montreal has seen the total go "under" in four straight on the road, and once again the situation points to a hard-fought battle, where field position plays a key role in deciding the winner; as such, the play for us as far as the total is concerned is indeed on the "under!" 

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10* Reds (ASSASSIN)

We feel, that at this price, Nick Martinez (6-5, 3.16 ERA) and the home side are well worth the price of admission. Martinez will be opposed by Michael Lorenzen (5-6, 3.79) of the Royals in the opener of this IL series. The Reds come in having won four straight and they're now just four games back of a Wildcard spot. KC still has a 4.5-games lead over Boston for the final WC spot in the AL, but the Royals certainly haven't been playing their best baseball over the last month, going just 4-6 in their last ten. The Reds have hit more home runs (11), than they've conceded runs (seven), over their last four games. Lorenzen hasn't looked terrible since coming over from the Rangers in a trade, but he hasn't been a standout either. Martinez is coming off his best start of the year, holding the hard-hitting Brewers scoreless over seven; lay the price with confidence, the play is Cincinnati!

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10* OVER Fulham/Man U (EPL TOW)

This is going to be a "gimme" for Man U. United is coming off a difficult season and off-season. The pressure is already tremendous for the home side to start performing right out of the gate, but in three pre-season matches they suffered three-defeats in five outings (including a 3-0 loss to Liverpool in the USA.) Most recently the Red Devils lost to their city rival in the FA Community Shield. Fulham won here last year, one of six home defeats out of 19 games for United. They'd lost to Fulham just three times over the previous 33 matches. Now Fulham is motivated to make it two away victories against United for the first time in its history. The Cottagers ultimately finished in 13th place last year, but they did win two of their last three away games last season (it's also noteworthy that the L4 meetings in this series in league play have been won by the away side.) With each team pushing the pace like we anticipate, the "over" is the correct call as far as the total is concerned in our opinion!

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10* Patriots (TOP SIDE)

The Eagles won 16-13 in Baltimore to open up their 2024 preseason, but we're expecting a letdown here in New England in Week 2. The Patriots have hinted that they'll be giving their starters, including QB Drake Maye some more time. Backup Ballie Zappe was 12 of 20 for 108 yards, and Joe Milton III went four of six for 54 yards and a TD in the Pats 17-3 Week 1 win over the Panthers. New England though looked tough defensively, with five sacks and causing two unrecovered fumbles. Philly backup QB Kenny Pickett was 14 of 22 for 89 yards and a TD in their win over the Ravens, and really wasn't that effective. The Patriots have more to work on here still in Week 2 of the preseason, and with Jalen Hurts and most of the starters once again seeing little to no time whatsoever for Philly in this one, we're going to lay the points with the Patriots in the end!

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10* Giants (ASSASSIN)

Only 1.5 games separated these two teams entering this series, but Atlanta has now won three in a row. Note that the Giants are in fact 7-2 in their last nine after three or more straight home losses. The Braves haven't had a four-game road sweep in San Francisco in over 68 years, and we don't see that changing tonight, as we look for the home side to draw the line in the sand and to find a way to get the job done on Thursday night. Logan Webb (10-8, 3.22 ERA) gets the call for the Giants, and he's 3-0 with a tiny 0.83 ERA over his last three outings. He dominated the Braves earlier in the season, limiting them to two runs over seven innings on July 4th. Overall Webb is 3-1 with a 2.98 ERA in seven career starts vs. Atlanta. The visitors counter with Max Fried (7-6, 3.56), who is 4-0 with a 2.40 ERA in seven career starts vs. the Giants. But note that Fried has looked "off" of late since returning from the IL, allowing ten runs and walking eight over just eight innings of work. Look fro Webb to deliver the goods and for San Francisco to step up and avoid the humbling sweep!

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8* UNDER A's/Mets (TOP TOTAL)

These teams have been involved in some higher-scoring "slug-fests" their last few game, but everything finally points to more of a "duel" here in the getaway contest. Oakland had its three-game win streak come to an end in last night's 9-1 loss here, one night after winning the opener by a score of 9-4. Oakland has seen the total go "over" in three straight, but note that the A's have in fact seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. The Mets finally broke their four-game slide with last night's win. Like its counterpart today, New York also enters having seen the total go "over" in three straight. The visitors hand the ball to Mitch Spence (7-8, 4.33 ERA), who has been a workhorse for Oakland all season, and who is off an unfortunate loss vs. the Jays by conceding just two runs with no walks over six innings. Over 106 innings of work he owns a very respectable 86:31 K:BB. He'll be opposed by Jose Quintana (6-8, 4.10), who is off an outing to forget vs. the Mariners, but who remains sharp in all "day" games this year by going 3-3 with a 3.53 ERA. He's also owns a 3.39 ERA at home despite just a 3-4 record. Regardless, we like Quintana to bounce back and for Spence to match his effort, as everything points to a bit of a "duel" here; the play is the "under!" 

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10* OVER Jays/Angels (AL NON-DIV TOW)

These teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but we're finally expecting a bit of a "slug-fest" finally mid-week, despite these being a couple of decent starters featured going head-to-head. The Jays turn to Jose Berrios (10-9, 3.97 ERA), while the home side counters with Tyler Anderson (9-10, 2.99.) Both have been workhorses for their clubs this season, but note that LA has in fact seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last ten in trying to avenge two or more straight home losses vs. an opponent. While the first two games of this series stayed well below the number, everything finally points to some explosive fireworks here on Wednesday, so the play is indeed on the "over!" 

AAA Sports

10* Brewers runline (ASSASSIN)

Milwaukee lost its third straight, and its second straight in this series, but we're expecting the home side to be much more competitive this evening. Note that Milwaukee is in fact 7-2 in its last nine in trying to avenge two or more straight home losses vs. an opponent. Neither of these starters has been great this year, with the Dodgers turning to Walker Buehler (1-4, 5.84 ERA) and the Brewers countering with Frankie Montas (4-8, 5.01.) Montas is off a win over Atlanta, allowing three runs and two hits over four innings. Buehler is being re-activated from the 15-day DL to make his first start since June 18th. Here's a great "situational" opportunity for both the Brewers and Montas to take advantage of. He looked pretty shaky over three re-hab starts and we feel he'll struggle vs. this hungry home side as well. We're going to lay the price though for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance; the play is Milwaukee on the runline option!

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6* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Mets.

Off four straight losses, including a 9-4 setback to the A's in the opener of this series, we're looking for the Mets to find a way to get the job done here on Wednesday night. Note that NY is 7-3 in its last ten in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite of -150 or greater vs. an opponent as well. The visitors turn to Joey Estes (5-4, 4.70 ERA), who has looked sharp over some weak competition the last couple of weeks, but who is still a poor 2-4 with a 7.52 ERA on the road. The home side counters with David Peterson (6-1, 3.34 ERA), who earned a win over Colorado last time out, allowing one run over five innings, and he's now conceded two runs or fewer in eight of his last nine starts. Everything points to New York rolling to victory, so lay the price with confidence!

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10* UNDER Nats/Orioles (ASSASSIN)

We base our picks on mnay different things, and this particular one is based upon the starting pitchers. Each side had Monday off as they prepare for this short two-game IL series. As stated off the top, for the most part this pick revolves around the starting pitchers for the most part for us. Washington hands the ball to Jake Irvin (8-10, 3.76 ERA) who is 6-3 with a 3.48 ERA on the road this year, while the home side coutners with Trevor Rogers 2-10, 4.71 ERA), who is 3-4 with a 3.35 ERA in ten career starts vs. the Nats. Look for these two competent starters to get the job done and be the main story line in this contest; this number is high, the play is the "under!" 

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10* Brewers (NL GOW)

The Brewers had their five-game win streak come to an end in Sunday's 4-3 home loss to the Reds. They likely got caught "looking ahead" to this four game home series vs. the Dodgers. LA won its series over Pittsburgh at home over the weekend, but we think it'll have a difficult time in the opener of this series. Clayton Kershaw (0-2, 4.38 ERA) is scheduled to start for LA, coming off a hard-luck loss vs. the Phillies, conceding one run over 4.2 innings. Previous to that he was rocked by the Padres. He hasn't looked very great over this small sample-size, posting a 1.62 WHIP over 12 innings. Freddy Peralta (7-6, 4.02) counters for the home side, and while his numbers point to him being sharper on the road than at home this season, we still absolutely feel that the value lies on the home side at this price. We don't trust Kershaw at all yet, so the play is on Peralta and the Brewers!

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10* OVER Denver/Indianapolis (NFLX TOY)

It's a big year for both Denver coach Sean Payton and Indianapolis coach Shane Steichen, each who enters their second year with their current team. Denver will be starting Jarrett Stidham in this one, with Bo Nix getting the majority of time under center next week vs. the Packers. Stidhan went 1-1 as a starter last year for the Broncos and his experience and competitiveness is part of the reason why I really like the OVER here, as I expect him to get plenty of production vs. Indianpolis' second-stringers on defense. And outside of the QB's, the starting offense is expected to see 15 to 18 plays. The Colts already know who their QB is with Anthony Richardson. He'll only see a series or two before making way for his super capable backups in Joe Flacco and Sam Ehlinger. The backup QB's for both sides are hungry and have big chips on their shoulders and will be able to expose these sup-par defenses; this number is low, the play is indeed on the "over!" 

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10* Nationals (SUPER SIDE)

After their tight 5-4 win here at home on Saturday, we like the Nationals to dig deep and deliver here on Sunday as well in the Nation's capital. The bottom line here is that we have no faith at all in Angels' starter Jack Kochanowicz (0-2, 14.14 ERA), who has been forced into the starting rotation out of necessity and who is making a "spot start" in place of Davis Daniel. And so that means that the advantage for sure swings to Mackenzie Gore (7-9, 4.66), who is off a solid win over the Giants on Thursday, allowing four earned runs with six K's over five innings. Gore owns a very respectable 128:46 K:BB this season, and at this price and considering the overall situation, we definitely feel that Washington is once again the correct call in this matchup!

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10* UNDER Reds/Brewers (NL CENTRAL TOW)

These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, including in the Brewers 8-3 win on Friday night, but for a couple of different reasons, we're expecting much more of a "duel" here on Saturday between these division rivals. The Brewers won their fourth straight after yesterday's win, and all three games went "over" the number. Despite Friday's victory eclipsing the posted number, Milwaukee has STILL seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 12 after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. The Reds are last in the division at 56-60. They had won three of four previous to yesterday's setback. They've now seen the total go "over" in seven straight. But we really like both these staters and everything points to them "stealing the show" so to speak in what we predict will be a classic "duel," with Nick Martinez (6-4, 3.43 ERA) going for the Reds and Tobias Myers (6-5, 3.02) countering for the home side. With each of these starters working deep into the latter frames like we suspect, the savvy call as far as the total is concerned in this one is definitely on the "under!" 

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10* Royals (IL GOM)

We like the Royals to bounce back after yesterday's 8-5 defeat. Note that KC is in fact 8-4 in its last 12 in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. The Cards hand the ball to Andre Pallante (4-6, 4.43 ERA) who was shelled for five runs over four innings in a loss to the Mets. He's in the starting rotation out of necessity, and we feel he should/could in fact be a much larger do in this matchup throwing opposite Michael Wacha (8-6, 3.55), who has consistently been at his best in front of the home town crowd this year, going 4-1 with a 3.23 ERA. Everything, including this price, is working in favor of Kansas City on Saturday, so lay it with confidence!

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10* Jets (NFLX GOY)

Both teams have plenty to work on in the preseason. The Commanders though likely have more to work on than any other team, as they signed more free agents in the off-season than anyone else. There's a battle between Sam Hartman and Jeff Driskel, but we're still giving the nod to the Jets in this one. Aaron Rodgers won't play in the pre-season, Tyrod Taylor, Andrew Peasley and Adrian Martinez will see plenty of time in this one and we absolutely believe that an outright victory is in the cards, but that said, we're recommending that you RUN, not walk, to grab as many points as you can with New York in what turns out to be what we feel to be the strongest "situational" side play of the preseason!

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10* Diamondbacks runline (ASSASSIN)

Two teams with big aspirations in the National League collide in Arizona on Friday night, and while we do think an outright win is 100% a possibility for the home side, we definitely believe the value lies here in laying the very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The bottom line is that we feel these starters or more evenly matched than what the bookmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Zach Wheeler (11-5, 2.77 ERA) has been a consistent bright spot for the Phillies, but after holding the Mariners scoreless over eight innings in his last outing, we expect some minor regression here. Ryne Nelson (8-6, 4.65 ERA) has been a workhorse for the Diamondbacks this year, most recently allowing four runs over five innings while striking out seven in a no-decision to Pittsburgh. It was the third time in his last four starts that he's posted at least seven K's. Look for Arizona to, at the very least, earn the cover on the runline option!

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10* UNDER Panthers/Pats (TOTAL PROFIT$)

Both teams were terrible last year. Carolina finished a league-worst 2-5 last year and it missed out on getting the No. 1 pick int the draft after trading away the pick to the Bears the previous season. Bryce Young should be improved, but he, along with most of the other starters, won't be playing in this one. The 2023/24 campaign was also a difficult one for the Patriots, who enter with a new hea coach in Jerod Mayo and a new QB in No. 3 pick Drake Maye. These teams have plenty of holes to fill and many things to work on and actually winning this meaningless contest is WAY, WAY down on the list of importance. This one will be decided by field position, and in a contest like this, everything does indeed point to a tight, lower-scoring "under!" 

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10* UNDER Brewers/Braves (ASSASSIN)

The first two games of this series have flown well "over" the number, but everything finally points to more of a defensive "duel" in the getaway game on Thursday. We think these starters will battle each other deep into this one, and that will be the main reason why this total stays below the number. The visitors hand the ball to Frankie Montas (4-8, 5.01 ERA), while the home side counters with Charlie Morton (6-6, 3.94.) Montas comes in off one of his best starts of the year and we're looking for him to build off that performance after he conceded three runs over five innings while striking out five in a victory over the Nationals. Morton comes in off likely his best start of the season as well, giving up one run and striking out six over six innings in a victory over the Fish on Thursday. Morton has been at his best at home this year as well, going 4-3 with a 3.00 ERA thus far. For all the reasons listed above, the play is indeed on the "under!" 

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10* Nationals runline (ULTIMATE)

As of writing, the Nationals are ten games back in the Wildcard rae, while the Giants are 4.5. For us, betting the MLB season for the most part is about betting "situations." And here's a great "situational" play that we always keep our eyes open for throughout the season. Depending on the pitcher, we like going against a starting pitcher that's coming off a perfect game or a no-hitter. And Blake Snell (1-3, 4.29 ERA) fits that bill for us. He's back to form after a second stint on the IR and a disastrous start to the season, but his recent numbers are completely unsustainable over the short or long-term in our opinion (note that he's still just 1-1 with a poor 5.29 ERA away from friendly confines this season.) As stated, this strategy doesn't always work, but for us it comes down to evaluating each starter in a case-to-case basis. So Jake Irvin (8-9, 3.56) and the home side will look to take advantage. Irvin is off a loss vs. the Brewers, allowing four runs over six innings, but we're expecting him to settle down here at home and to take advantage of the soft-hitting visiting side. While the outright is clearly in the cards, the runline value is just too good to turn down; the play is Washington on the runline!

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10* UNDER Red Sox/Royals (ASSASSIN)

We base our picks on many different things. Primarily when we bet MLB totals, we're betting the starting pitchers. We have two teams that can hit the ball for sure, but in our estimation, it'll be these two competent starters who "steal the show" and put on a classic "duel" once it's all said and done. For us, this one starts and ends with the starters. The visitors hand the ball to Brayan Bello (10-5, 5.13 ERA), who has gotten progressively sharper all around as the season has progressed. Bello has so far been his best on the road as well this year, going 6-2 with a respectable 4.28 ERA away from friendly confines. And the home side counters with Seth Lugo (13-5, 2.57 ERA), who dominated the Tigers in his last outing, allowing one run over eight innings. Expect these starters to "duel" into the latter frames and for this total to stay well "under" the number as a result!

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10* Orioles (AL EAST GOY)

We think the time is right to pull the trigger on a play of this magnitude. Baltimore is tied with New York at 67-46. The Yanks are at home in a favorable series vs. the Angels, putting added emphasis onto this series with division-rival Toronto. The Jays are sellers, but they won't be rolling over here obviously. Baltimore can't look past or take anything for granted. This is an important series for Baltimore as it'll look to take control and not let the home side build any momentum. Overall we also really like the starting pitching matchup, with Grayson Rodriguez going up against Chris Bassitt. Rodriguez (13-4, 3.86 ERA) is coming off a win over these very Jays in his last outing, allowing four runs over six innings while striking out eight. He enters with an elite 130:36 K:BB and we're expecting him to be a difference-maker in this one. Bassitt (8-10, 4.02 ERA) has been more "miss" than "hit" this season with his game-to-game performance, as he's just 5-6 with a pedestrian 4.24 ERA at home. Look for Baltimore to find a way to grind out a win in this one as it looks to keep pace with New York; lay the price, the play is Baltimore!

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10* Pirates runline (NL NON-DIV GOM)

While an outright win is clearly not out of the question, at this price we feel the value for sure lies in grabbing the home side on the "runline" option. Pittsburgh is currently on the outside looking in to the wildcard picture, sitting 3.5 games back of the Padres. To say this is a big series would be a big understatement. The bottom line here though is that we feel that these starters are more evenly matched than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe, and we do feel that regression is likely for Padres' starter Dylan Cease (11-8, 3.42 ERA), who is off a big win over the Dodgers, allowing one run over five innings. He's won four in a row and put up blistering numbers, but this streak is unrealistic to continue in our opinion. So with the anticipated regression, Bailey Falter (5-7, 3.95) will look to take advantage and to build off a great outing of his own last time out, conceding two runs over six frames in a victory over the Astros. He's been at his best at home as well by going 2-3 with a highly-respectable 3.87 ERA. The value here for sure lies with Pittsburgh on the "runline" option!

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10* UNDER D-Backs/Guardians (IL TOW)

Both sides have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but we're anticipating much more of a "duel" in the opener of this IL series. And for us, this one starts and ends with the starting pitchers. The visitors hand the ball to Zach Gallen (9-5, 3.56 ERA), while the home side counters with Logen Allen (8-4, 5.67.) It's Gallen vs. Allen. Gallen enters off a win over Washington, allowing one run and one walk while striking out six over six innings. He's also 5-4 with a 3.39 ERA in all "night" contests. Allen has been called up from Triple A to make this start after a poor performance over the first half of the season. If he pitches well, he'll be able to stay on the team. He did well in Triple-A though, posting a 3.86 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over three outings. We're expecting this to be a bit of a "duel" and for this total to ultimately fall "under" the number once it's all said and done!

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10* UNDER Cards/Cubs (BEST OF BEST)

Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but we're definitely expecting more of a "duel" here on Sunday night. St. Louis has seen the total go "over" in six straight after snapping a two game slide to open this series with a 5-4 win yesterday. note that Chicago has seen the total go "under" the number in four of its last five in trying to avenge a home loss as a fav. vs. an opponent. The Cubs' three-game win streak ended on Saturday and they've now seen the total go "over" in four in a row. St. Louis goes with Miles Mikolas (8-8, 4.99 ERA), while the home side counters with Justin Steele (2-5, 3.38.) Mikolas has been pretty decent of late, posting a quality start in four of his last five outings. He also owns a quality 83:20 K:BB so far. Steele is coming off an outing to foget vs. the Reds, but note that his ERA drops to 2.90 through 11 "night" games played this year; this number is high, the play is the "under!" 

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8* Pirates (SITUATIONAL DESTROYER)

We look for the home side to find a way to get the job done with their "ace" on the mound in Sunday's finale with Arizona. The visitors hand the ball to Ryne Nelson (8-6, 4.53 ERA), who is coming off a rare gem vs. the Nationals, going seven scoreless and striking out nine. Suffice it to say, we're expecting a quick "return to the norm" as far as his performance is concerned here in this difficult road venue. Pittsburgh starter Paul Skenes (6-1, 1.90) is the correct call at home at this price. His tiny 0.90 WHIP remains one of the best in the league and everything points to him coming out on top in this matchup; so lay the price with confidence, the play is indeed on Pittsburgh!

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8* UNDER Brewers/Nationals (DUEL)

Both teams have played to several higher-scoring games of late, but we're finally anticipating much more of a "duel" here on Sunday. We had a play on the "under" in this series yesterday, and while that came up short, everything definitely points to these two starters throwing deep into this one. The Brewers hand the ball to Tobias Myers (6-4, 3.10 ERA), who has actually been at his best away from friendly confines this season by going 4-4 with a 2.66 ERA. The home side counters with Mitchell Parker (5-6, 4.31), who has been his best at home this year by going 3-2 with a 3.81 ERA. With these two guys battling into the latter frames like we're expecting, the "under" is for sure the correct call as far as the total is concerned in our opinion!

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10* Edmonton (WEST-DIV GOY)

The Elks are 0-7. At some point Edmonton is going to win a game. That may or may not be this week, but the bottom line is that the longer these types of lop-sided streaks keep going (either negative OR positive), they become more and more unrealistic. Edmonton is 0-7 SU and 3-4 ATS. It started the year with a 29-21 home loss to Saskatchewan, but note that the Elks are in fact 4-1 ATS in their last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss vs. an opponent. They've also lost three straight ATS, which is also significant for us to take note of, as the Elks are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row. It wasn't McCleod Bethel-Thompson's best game clearly, but he'll reoubnd here vs. the 5-2 Riders in my estimation, who are just 1-2 in their last three. Last time out they fell 20-16 at Montreal as Shea Patterson also had a really "off" night under center for the Riders. The overall situation, combined with the numbers/trends though point to this game coming "right down to the wire," so we'll therefore be recommending to grab as many points as you can with the Elks!

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10* D-Backs/Pirates UNDER (DUEL)

These teams played to a very high-scoring game on Friday, but we're anticipating much more of a "duel" here on Saturday. The Diamondbacks go with Jordan Montgomery, who is 7-5 with a 6.51 ERA, but who is still 4-2 with a 4.11 ERA on the road this year. He'll be opposed by Jordan Keller, who is 10-5 with a 3.30 ERA and who most recently faced Arizona his last outing, holding the D-Backs to two runs while striking out seven over six innings in what turned out to be an unfortunate no-decision. With these two hungry hurlers going deep into the latter innings like we're suspecting, everything does indeed point to the "under" as the correct call as far as the total is concerned in our opinion!

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10* UNDER Brewers/Nationals (ASSASSIN)

These teams were involved in a high-scoring game on Friday, but we're anticipating much more of a "duel" here on Saturday. And for us, this play starts and ends with the starting pitchers. The Brewers hand the ball to Aaron Civale, while the home side counters with Davidjohn Herz. Civale looks to settle down for his new team in this start, as he sports a very respctable 3.99 ERA in eight "day" games already this season. Herz comes in off a strong no-decision to the Cardinals on Sunday, allowing two runs and striking out eight over six innings. Look for these two guys to take "center stage" on Saturday afternoon and for this total to stay well "under" the number once it's all said and done! 

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10* UNDER Jays/Yanks (AL EAST TOY)

Both of these sides have been playing to several higher-scoring games before coming into this series, but we're anticipating a classic "duel" here on Friday between a couple of competent starting hurlers. Toronto has seen the total go "over" three of its last four after dropping three off four at Baltimore over the weekend, while New York enters having seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven straight after winning its fifth in a row in a three-game series sweep at the Phillies this week. That's a lot of "overs," and we believe it's now helping to push this total here on Friday a little bit higher than it normally would/should be. Kevin Gausman is 9-8 with a 4.44 ERA for the Jays and has turned the corner with his performance over the last two months. And he'll be opposed by Marcus Stroman, who is 7-5 with a 3.64 ERA and who looked good in his first outing after the break. We're expecting these guys to battle each other into the latter frames, and as such, everything point to the total staying "under" the number once it's all said and done!

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10* UNDER Montreal/Hamilton (EAST-CONF TOM)

This is the opener of a home-and-home set between the teams and we're expecting a tighter, lower-scoring battle in the opener. Montreal is 6-1 overall and after falling 37-18 to Toronto at home, the Als bounced back with a 20-16 victory over Saskatchewan last week. We can expect a similar defensive affair here vs. Hamilton. The Ti-Cats are 2-5, but they've won two straight. The last thing Montreal will do is try and turn this into a shootout with the Ti-Cats, but after those two straight high-scoring wins, we feel that this O/U line is a bit TOO inflated here on Friday night. In our opinion, everything points to a tighter, lower-scoring battle, so the play is the "under!" 

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10* OVER Cards/Cubs (NL CENTRAL TOY)

These teams had been involved in several high-scoring games leading up to the opener of their four-game series on Thursday, but on Friday we're once again anticipating some offensive fireworks. Eric Fedde is 7-4 with a 3.11 ERA for the Cards, and he'll be starting opposite the Cubs' Javier Assad (5-3, 3.23.) Fedde will make his first start for his new team after coming over from the White Sox, and we're anticiapting a bit of struggles right out of the gate. This is a great "situational" play for sure. Assad gave up three runs over five innings in a win over the Royals in his last outing. It was his first win and first time he completed six innings since mid May. We're predicting more regression hee on Friday as well. While the majority are expecting a classic "duel," here, we're going the other way for sure and expecting some offense and for this total to ultimately fly "over" the number sooner, rather than later!

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10* UNDER Orioles/Guardians (AL NON-DIV TOM)

Whoever gets the start in the end for Baltimore, we like the "under" in this one. This is just a great overall "situational" play. That said, Dean Kremer (4-7, 4.20 ERA) is expected to get the start for the Orioles, who are 4-1 in their last five after going 3-1 vs. Toronto this past weekend. Three of those four games went "over" the number, but everything points to a much tighter affair here with Kremer, who has been much better on the road this season than anywhere else by going 3-3 with a highly-respectable 3.07 ERA. Not to be outdone though, Ben Lively (9-6, 3.44) will look to keep pace with his counterpart, as Lively has been almost unbeatable at home this season, going 5-1 with a tiny 2.69 ERA. Look for these two starting "studs" to draw most of the attention in tomorrow's summaries of this contest; the play is indeed on the "under!" 

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10* Phillies(ULTIMATE BLOWOUT)

We had a play on the "under" in Tuesday's game, but there was a last minute pitching change which rendered it "no action." Despite what happens in that Tuesday contest (as we're releasing this pick as the first pitch goes in that one), we definitely now love the way this Wednesday game sets up for the home side. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Nestor Cortes (4-9, 4.13 ERA), while the home side counters with Cristopher Sanchez (7-6, 3.05.) Cortes has been downright terrible in this spot all year though and we don't see anyting changing, as he's 0-4 with a 5.15 ERA in all "day" games and 0-5 with a 6.21 ERA on the road. Sanchez is 6-2 with a 1.75 ERA at home and we feel he should/could in fact be a much larger fav in this spot; lay the price with confidence, the pick is indeed on Philadelphia!

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10* UNDER Yanks/Phillies (DUEL)

This pick for us is almost 100% based upon the starting pitchers. We've always liked both of these guys. They're both prone to blowups at times, but the conditions here feel "right" for a "duel" for sure on Tuesday. The Yanks hand the ball to Gerritt Cole (3-2, 5.40 ERA,) while the home side counters with Aaron Nola (11-4, 3.44.) Cole is coming off an outing to forget vs. the Mets, but he still sports a decent 38:12 K:BB over 35 innings. The sample size is still too small to draw any concrete conclusoins on Cole and all signs point to him progressing in the second half. Nola has once again been great this year, both on the road and at home, but his ERA does drop to 3.44 in front of the home town faithful. We're expecting these competent hurlers to take "center stage" in this contest and as such, the play is indeed on the "under!" 

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UPDATE: With the pitching change, we're going to make this a NO ACTION

10* UNDER Rangers/Cards (IL TOW)

The Rangers enter this Interleague series sitting at 51-55 after dropping all three games North of the border over the weekend. All three games went "over" the number, but that's significant for us to take note of here, as Texas has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 12 after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row (also in four of its last five after three or more straight losses in a row.) We also have two really "steady" starters squaring off with the Rangers turning to Nathan Eovaldi (7-4, 3.31 ERA), and the home side countering with Andre Pallante (4-4, 3.92.) Look for these two guys to battle into the latter frames and for this total to ultimately stay well "under" the number once it's all said and done!

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10* UNDER Yanks/Red Sox (ASSASSIN)

They say divsional contests are always the most important and that they almost always mean the most to the home side. This is a very meaningful series for both teams, but for this particular play we're putting our focus onto the starting pitchers, and considering their form, we do indeed feel that this O/U line is way too high. The home side is scheduled to start Carlos Rodon (10-7, 4.42 ERA), while the home side coutners with Tanner Houck (8-6, 2.71.) Rodon most recently allowed just one run and struck out ten over seven innings in a divisional victory over the Rays, and there's no reason not to think that he won't carry that momentum over here. Houck is 7-5 with a 2.46 ERA in all "night" games this year. The overall situation points to this total staying "under" the number once it's all said and done!

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8* Elks (TOP MONEY-LINE PLAY)

Hamilton is 1-5, while Edmonton is 0-6. Hamilton got off the schneid finally with an upset win at home over Toronto, holding on for the slim 27-24 outright victory. The Elks fell short in Ottawa by a score of 20-14. With back-to-back games vs. Montreal after this though, we feel that the visiting side will get caught "looking ahead" and suffer a predictable letdown here on the road. No such luxury obviously for the Elks, who will be desperate to break the "goose egg." McLeod Bethel-Thompson was once again super solid despite not posting a TD pass, finishing 27 of 39 for 206 yards and we feel he'll be a difference-maker here at home. Hamilton is 0-3 on the road this year and has been consistently inconsistent from one game to the next. We look for the Elks to lay everything on the line this weekend and because of that, we have no issues at all in laying the price on Edmonton on the moneyline option!

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8* Orioles (MISMATCH)

This is an "action" play, meaning whoever gets the start, we really like the Orioles to finally bounce back in the finale of this three-game interleague series, after getting absolutely destroyed over the first two games. Baltimore has in fact responded well in this spot for bettors by going 8-3 in its last 11 in trying to avenge two or more straight home losses vs. an opponent. The scheduled starters are Randy Vazquez (3-5, 4.17 ERA) for the Padres, and Albert Suarez (5-4, 3.48) for the home side. Look for Baltimore to bounce back here and for the Padres to get caught looking ahead to a day off, before a series with the Dodgers; lay the price, the play is indeed on Baltimore!

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10* Belal Muhammad (TOP PLAY)

This is a rematch between the two, after Belal Muhammad took a fight on short notice three years ago. Muhammad looks for revenge here, and note that he's 5-2-1 against UFC-level southpaws. Muhammad has come a long way in the last three years as well and is completely rounded in every facet. Muhammad will almost assuredly be looking to take this one to the ground whenever possible, as this is one area we feel he for sure has an advantage. Edwards has been on top for a while here, but we're expecting Muhammad to be unorthodox with his approach here and to note give the champ much to work with; fantastic overall value play here on Belal Muhammad!

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10* Mariners (PITCHER DOMINATION)

One bright spot for the White Sox this season has been the play of starter Erick Fedde, but we still believe he'll have his hands full here throwing opposite Bryan Woo. Fedde is 7-3 with a 2.98 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, while Woo is 4-1 with a 2.54 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. For arguments sakes let's call these guys a "wash." Seattle is currently three games of the final wild card, so clearly these are the series that the Mariners "must" win moving forward. Easier said than done we know, but that said, we absolutely are giving a big nod to the M's bullpen and their line-up in this matchup and with those two crucial factors working heavily in their favor, it makes this a price in which we have no issues at all in laying; so that's the play here, laying the short price on the Mariners and expect a rout!

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10* UNDER Yanks/Red Sox (ASSASSIN)

Considering the form of these two starting pitchers, we're going to suggest a play on the "under" in this one. Marcus Stroman (7-5, 3.51 ERA) gets the call for the visitors, while Kutter Crawford (6-8, 3.37 ERA) goes for Boston. Stroman is coming off a tough-luck loss, allowing three runs over six innings to Tampa. It was his best start in over a month and we expect the Yanks hurler to build off that performance. Crawford is coming off an outing to forget vs. the Dodgers, allowing six runs over five innings, but we're expecting a bounce-back here. Crawford has a 3.50 ERA at home and everything in our opinion points to a "duel." This number is a bit high now, so the play is indeed on the "under!" 

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8* Phillies (SITUATIONAL BLOWOUT)

We're coming down the home stretch in the MLB season, and the Phillies will play their last three IL series, starting here with the Guardians. Cleveland just finished a four-game series at Detroit yesterday, going 2-2 overall and falling 3-0 in the finale. The Phillies had yesterday off. Ben Lively (8-6, 3.57 ERA) gets the call for the Guardians, while Cristopher Sanchez (7-5, 2.97) Lively has been better at home this year (2.49 at home, compared to 4.51 ERA on the road), and we're looking for Sanchez to take advantage, who is 6-1 with a 1.50 ERA in front of the home town crowd thus far. This line could/should in fact be a lot larger in our opinion, so lay the price with confidence!  

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