This is a 10* play on the UNDER

Golden State's fall from grace has been ugly. The three-time NBA champs are 5-22 this year and it would absolutely be fair to call them the worst team in the Western Conference. Just to further illustrate what we're dealing with here, the Warriors were underdogs in 23 of their first 24 games. That's more times being a dog than the previous two seasons combined! Sunday night marks the ninth time they will be a home dog this year. It's a division game with Sacramento, who certainly isn't complaining about what's going on in Oakland. But the Kings did just lose to the Knicks on Friday. We want no part of either side tonight, but like the Under as you've got two teams that are near the bottom of the league in scoring. It's the first meeting of the year. The Warriors are 11-3 Under against teams with losing records. The only time they've topped 105 points in the last 10 games was an overtime loss to the Knicks. Play UNDER Sacramento-Golden State

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This is a 10* on HAWAII

Samford makes the long trip out to Honolulu Sunday night. The Bulldogs just won on the road, 112-90 at Houston Baptist last Saturday. But prior to that, they'd been 0-5 in road games with a couple of losses by more than 20 points. Samford can score, but not surprisingly they don't shoot nearly as well when they're the road team. That's a problem when you're giving up 83.3 points/game (on the road). Hawaii figures to be in a foul mood this evening as it is coming off a 25-point loss at Oregon. That was just the third loss overall for the Warriors, two of them on the road to P5 teams. They are 6-1 at home. This result likely boils down to who's senior guard performs better tonight - Josh Sharkey for Samford or Eddie Stansberry for Hawaii. In the end, we like how Hawaii has been shooting the three-ball recently (averaging 9.3 makes L3 games). For the year, they are second among Big West teams in three-pointers made. Play on HAWAII  

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This is a 10* on DALLAS

The Cowboys have nosedived, losing three in a row for the second time this season. If they were in any other division, their playoff chances might be toast. But the NFC East is a different story. Dallas is still tied with Philadelphia atop the division despite both teams being just 6-7. Next week's game in Philly is likely to determine who makes the playoffs. But more pressing for the 'Boys is this week's home game vs. the Rams. Unlike their opponents, LA comes in with plenty of confidence. They just thwarted the Seahawks 28-12 on Sunday Night Football. But we're still willing to back the Cowboys in this one. The lookahead line had them laying four points. As a result of not only their loss last Thursday (to the Bears), but what the Rams did to Seattle, the line has moved considerably. A couple weeks ago, Dallas not being favored here would have been considered crazy. This is a team that's been an underdog just one time all season and that was at New England where they covered the spread. Remember it was only a few weeks ago when the Rams looked to have more questions than answers as they'd been held to just 35 points over a three-game stretch, which included a humiliating 45-6 home loss at the hands of Baltimore. The Cowboys probably played their worst game of the season last week in Chicago. They've had extra time to prepare here and were 2-0 ATS as a home dog last year, winning both games outright. They are healthy and lead the league in total offense. This is a classic "buy low" situation. Play on DALLAS

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This is a 10* on TENNESSEE

Tennessee and Houston will play twice over the next three weeks and those two games figure to decide who wins the AFC South. The Titans have come back from the dead, led by Ryan Tannehill, to win six of their last seven games. Both teams are 8-5 on the year. Houston is off a very ugly loss to Denver last week, leaving real questions about where it stands right now. Though we're talking same records, the Titans have a much better point differential. They are +63 while the Texans are only +8. Which do you think is more indicative of a division winner? This first meeting is in Tennessee where the Titans have won four in a row. In Tannehill's seven starts, the Titans offense ranks #2 in the league in scoring. They have scored 31 or more points four straight games. Houston hasn't scored more than 31 points in its last seven games. The Titans have the better defense as well, which is even more true now that J.J. Watt is out for the Texans. Houston has failed to cover eight of the last nine times it has faced a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. Play on TENNESSEE

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This is a 10* on NORTHERN ARIZONA

Northern Arizona has played what we'd call a "light schedule" so far. The Lumberjacks have taken the floor only six times, which is tied for the second fewest in the whole country. Only Iona (5) has played fewer games. Yet NAU still has the same number of wins (4) as their opponent for Saturday (Utah Valley St). The difference is UVSU has lost seven times, more than the total number of games played for NAU! We've got the teams rated pretty evenly, so the chance to grab this many points looks to be a steal. Utah Valley State has lost four in a row and six of seven. The only win came when they were an underdog. So laying points isn't a great option for the Wolverines. Wouldn't you know they are not only 0-4 ATS as favorites this year, every one of those games have resulted in a straight up defeat. Gotta take the points here. Play on NORTHERN ARIZONA

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This is a 10* on the OVER

Denver has been the top Under team in the league so far with 18 of their 23 games staying below the number. There's a number of reasons for this, one of which is that they are near the bottom in number of possessions per game. They've also quietly become one of the league's top defensive teams, giving up just 101.6 points/game, which is tops in the league. But eventually the oddsmakers are going to catch up with them and tonight's total vs. OKC looks too low. The Thunder are 6-1 Under their last seven games, obviously contributing to the low total we have tonight. They've held three straight opponents below 100 points, but that's not something we see taking place here. When you look at the amount of scoring taking place around the league, this total sticks out like a sore thumb. Yesterday was the anniversary of the highest scoring game in league history (it involved Denver) and "in honor" of that, the Nuggets go Over. Play OVER OKC-DENVER

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This is a 10* on TORONTO

Toronto is in its worst stretch of the season, having lost four of five games. They've gone 0-5 ATS and now face division foe Brooklyn, who is 8-2 ATS as an underdog. But with Kyrie Irving set to miss a 14th straight game, I don't see the Nets competing tonight. They just lost to Charlotte, as a 9.5-point favorite, Wednesday. That game saw them blow a 20-point lead. Caris LeVert has missed 15 straight games. Toronto is fully healthy, so the stretch of losing seems oddly timed. But also look at who they've lost to - Houston, Miami, Philadelphia and the Clippers. All of those are top teams. Brooklyn is below average and has lost eight straight times here in Toronto. After shooting poorly the last five games (below 40%), look for the Raptors to get it going offensively tonight. They average 116 points/game at home. Play on TORONTO

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This is a 10* on the OVER 

The Spiders of Richmond are 8-1 and have covered three straight, all as favorites. They've also gone Under in seven consecutive tries. That has led us to the lowest O/U for any Richmond game to date, a great time for us to spring into action. The opponent is College of Charleston, a team that has also seen its fair share of Unders so far, but two of their three Overs have come when the total is 135.5 points or lower. Richmond should not have much trouble scoring in this game. They are averaging 84.8 points/game at home and 79.6 points/game for the year. So we're counting on them holding up their end of the bargain. They've scored 75 in every game vs. a non-power conference foe. Both teams have held opponents to just over 40% shooting so far this year. Don't look for that to continue. Play OVER Charleston-Richmond

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This is an 8* on MIDDLE TENNESSEE 

Middle Tennessee probably isn't going to be able to get a win here, but they'll take a cover as they come into this game at 0-6 ATS. The Blue Raiders have played 10 games mind you, but four were not lined. As you might expect, those have been the Blue Raiders best performances. They haven't won any of the six lined contests, but tonight marks just the second time they'll be catching double digits. The first was against Villanova, who is a heck of a lot better than Ole Miss. Prior to last Saturday's 83-67 win over Cal State Bakersfield, the Rebels had looked downright dreadful in a pair of losses to Butler and Oklahoma State. They scored just 37 points vs. OSU and I don't see this being a game where the favorite is going to give a solid 40 minutes. Too many points for a team not rated in the Top 50 to be laying here. Play on MIDDLE TENNESSEE

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This is a 10* on the UNDER

This is the second straight game where the Bulls are being asked to lay points. They covered Wednesday, easily beating Atlanta 136-102. The Bulls have been favored more times than you probably realize (13x) including five of the first six games of the season. But we're approaching them with some caution coming off such a uncharacteristically big win. Plus Charlotte has pulled two straight upsets, winning at Brooklyn and at home vs. Washington. What we see is this game staying Under. Chicago certainly won't be shooting as well as it did vs. Atlanta when it finished with a season-best 57.4 field goal percentage. It had been nearly a month since they even finished a game at 50%. Charlotte has gone 10 straight games without shooting 50%. The last time they did was actually against Chicago, but we don't see history repeating itself. The first two times these teams played this year, the games were high scoring. But this one just "reeks" of an "off-shooting night for both teams. Play UNDER Charlotte-Chicago

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This is an 8* on UNDER

The Bucks face the Grizzlies tonight and it should be an easy win. The pointspread does make things a little complicated as it falls pretty close to the average margin the Bucks are winning by on the road this year. Memphis is also in off two straight upset victories, though those came against Golden State and Phoenix. But the big news for this game concerns each team's best player. There's a chance neither Giannis Antetokounmpo nor Ja Morant may suit up. We know Morant has been ruled out due to his ongoing back issue. Antetokounmpo sat out Wednesday with a sore right quad. Either way, you can look for this game to stay Under. The Bucks are an elite defensive team that ranks #1 in the league in defensive efficiency. The last five games have seen them allow an average of just 99 points. Memphis is toward the bottom of the league in offensive efficiency and that's with Morant. The Grizzlies are 5-1 under this year after scoring 115 or more their last game. Play UNDER Milwaukee-Memphis

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This is a 10* on COLORADO

Colorado State losing by 22 at home to San Diego State last week sets the precedent for them not doing well tonight. The Rams looked badly outclassed in that game. That shouldn't have been too surprising considering SDSU is one of the five teams in the country still without a loss. That tidbit is relevant today because it wasn't all that long ago that Colorado was still undefeated. As in this time last week. We called for them to suffer their first defeat of the season last Saturday at Kansas, which they did, and just as we predicted they did not cover the spread either (lost 72-58). The Buffaloes then lost again Tuesday, to a good Northern Iowa team (10-1), a game which they were 9.5-point favorites. After failing to cover in six straight, this is where Colorado gets its mojo back. This is still a ranked team (#24). They were a 13.5-point favorite in this game last year when it was played in Boulder. They might be a better team in 2019. They've already won at Arizona State, so I'm not concerned with Colorado winning on the road. Play COLORADO 

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This is a 10* on TORONTO

Calgary has won six in a row, but we’re not buying it as they’ve still got a negative goal differential this season. Give them credit for winning at both Colorado and Arizona, but before that it had been some weak competition. Tonight it’s a Toronto team that is also off two impressive road wins. They won at St. Louis and Vancouver, scoring nine goals in the process. Frederik Andersen continues to produce in goal for the Maple Leafs as he made 38 saves against the Coyotes. He has a .941 save percentage in non-conference games. The Leafs average 3.5 goals per game on the road. That’s tied for third best in the league. The Flames have responded well to the coaching change, but it’s just a temporary thing. Play on TORONTO

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This is an 10* on BALTIMORE

After a couple of close calls with San Francisco and Buffalo, the Ravens should have little difficulty blowing past the Jets Thursday night. We say that knowing full well that QB Lamar Jackson has been bothered by a hamstring injury this week. But the MVP candidate still has more than enough support to get him through this game, against one of the league's worst teams. The Jets could barely get by the Dolphins last week. That's a team Baltimore defeated in Week 1 by a score of 59-10. It's been nine straight wins for the Ravens, five of those coming by 14 points or more. New York simply does not have the capability to hang with the league's highest scoring team. Yes, the Jets have had some big offensive games this year, but those were all against bad teams. This is a team that lost by 16 points to a winless Cincinnati team the last time it was on the road. They are 0-7 straight up and 2-5 against the spread as an underdog of 10 or more points. The Ravens are 1st in scoring and 2nd in total offense. The Jets are 29th and 31st. Total mismatch. Play on BALTIMORE

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This is a 10* on WEST VIRGINIA

Look for West Virginia to bounce back from its first loss of the season. They are facing an overmatched Austin Peay team tonight in Morgantown. Saturday they went to St. John’s and lost 70-68 as a four-point favorite. They did the job defensively, holding the Red Storm to 32.7 percent shooting, including 2 of 17 from three-point range. But that effort was undermined by too many turnovers and getting outshot at the free throw line (were -15 in attempts). In a two-point game, that’ll cost you. Austin Peay is 0-4 on the road, losing by an average of 13.8 points per game. The teams the Governors have beaten this year are not anywhere near the same class as WVU. Even in a win over North Florida on Saturday, they struggled defensively by giving up 83 points. Look for the Mountaineers to be more careful with the basketball tonight and they’ll have the free throw edge at home. Play on WEST VIRGINIA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

The potential for Milwaukee to score a lot of points tonight is definitely there. New Orleans gives up almost 120 points/game. Only Washington gives up more than that. But this will only be the third time that a Bucks home game has had a total of at least 230 points attached to it. The first two both stayed Under - by very comfortable margins. The most recent was last Friday's 119-91 win over the Clippers. That was followed with yet another Under, this one with a much lower number, against Orlando on Monday as the Bucks won 110-101. Often lost in all the success Milwaukee has had the last two regular seasons is that they have been the #1 team in defensive efficiency. They should have little difficulty shutting down this terrible Pelicans team tonight. New Orleans has lost nine in a row has been been held under 105 points in five of its last six. They've missed 59 of 70 three-point attempts the last two games. The Bucks have won 15 in a row, should have no problem getting to 16 here and will keep the Pelicans in check. Play UNDER New Orleans-Milwaukee

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This is a 10* on INDIANA

Winners of four straight, Boston has a 17-5 record. They've also covered the spread the last four games. But here's where we start adding caveats. The Celtics are 10-0 at home. That's where they've played the last three games. The road finds them at a less impressive 7-5. Tonight they're in Indiana to a face a Pacers team that's not to be taken lightly. Coming off a five-game road trip where every game was close (finished 3-2 SU/ATS), the Pacers returned home Monday to face the Clippers. They lost 110-99 as it was a poor shooting night. But the Pacers haven't lost two straight at home all year. They are 9-3 at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. Boston is a shocking 11-0 ATS vs. teams with winning records this season. But a good number of those games were at home where they are undefeated. Before they won New York on December 1st, the Celtics had failed to cover three straight times as road favorites with two outright losses. Indiana will be taking this game quite seriously. Not that Boston won't. But the Pacers have a score to settle in the sense that they have lost seven in a row to the Celtics, including a four-game sweep in last year's playoffs. Time for some revenge! Play on INDIANA

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This is an 8* play on UMass

Massachusetts season started well enough. The Minutemen were a perfect 5-0 going into the Hall of Fame Classic in Connecticut. They lost both games that weekend and haven't recovered since. It's now a five-game losing streak after getting blown out by Harvard this past weekend. They haven't covered in four games. But just one of those five losses was at home and that was by just four points to South Carolina. Poor shooting has doomed the Minutemen during this five-game losing streak and at the same time they've given up at least 80 points in three straight. Yale, who has won five in a row straight up and covered its last eight, comes to Amherst tonight. While this looks like two ships sailing in opposite directions, we're not about to discount the benefits of home court advantage. Yale is playing its third straight road game. This is the most points UMass has gotten for any home game yet. Take the points. Play on UMass

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This is an 8* play on the UNDER

This may look like a low total, but the teams combined for only 197 points when they met last month. That 100-97 win by Denver didn't even feature that bad of shooting. When it came to three-point shooting, the teams combined to go 22 of 48, which is quite good! The Nuggets have been a strictly Under team thus far with a 16-5 mark that includes 10-1 vs. winning teams. They give up just 101.9 points/game, which is #1 in the league. Another key to their "Under success" is that they play at one of the league's slowest paces. Only three teams see a lower average of total possessions per game. Something else that has us on the Under here is Philadelphia being the home team. The Sixers 12-0 home record has been built on them allowing only 98.7 points/game here. That's the fewest number of points allowed by any team at home. These teams have combined to go 11-3-1 Under their last 15 games. Play UNDER Denver-Philadelphia

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This is an 8* on KANSAS

Kansas' season started with a 68-66 loss to Duke. Since then, the Jayhawks have looked as good as any team in the country. They've won seven in a row, six of those wins coming by at least 12 points. We used them as our Game of the Week on Saturday as they ended Colorado's unbeaten run with a resounding 72-58 victory. Tonight promises to be among the Jayhawks easiest games to date as they'll be hosting Wisconsin-Milwaukee. While all four of their losses have been by six points or less, the Panthers haven't played anybody close to the caliber of Kansas. Their most recent game was a 56-53 loss at Drake, which took place exactly one week ago. Despite having a week off, the spot is still not great for the underdog here. Before Drake, which was their first real road game, they'd played three games in three days in the Bahamas. The offensive numbers in those last four games aren't very good, which is a concern facing a Kansas team that has held its opponents to 37.7% shooting. The Jayhawks are already winning by an average of 17.7 points/game and this should be their easiest game since facing Chaminade. Play on KANSAS 

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This is a 10* on OKC

Oklahoma City is in a back to back but this is too many points for Utah to be laying. They lost two All-Stars in the offseason, but the Thunder are hanging tough and a pretty average team. That may not sound like any kind of ringing endorsement, but most were thinking this team was going to finish well below .500. Truthfully, Utah hasn't been a whole lot better than OKC this season. They have. Both teams have outscored the opposition by < than 1 pt per game. The Thunder have won 4 of 5 did go into Portland last night and come away with a 108-96 win as 3.5-point dogs. The Jazz beat Memphis Saturday night, but have lost five of seven overall and both wins were against Memphis. It's been awhile since Utah beat a decent team. Just because the Thunder played last night doesn't mean they should be the big of an underdog. Play on OKLAHOMA CITY

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This is a 10* on UNDER

Eli Manning will be starting for the Giants this evening. Not by choice, but rather due to the fact his replacement (Daniel Jones) is injured. You may recall things were not looking so good for Eli at the start of the season. In two games, both losses, he posted a QBR of 38.4. The Giants offense scored just 31 points. Things haven't been looking good for the Giants for some time now. They did win Jones' first two starts, but have dropped eight in a row since. During that losing streak, they've been held to 18 points or less five times. To think Manning will come in and right the ship seems outlandish. The Eagles also have issues. Last week saw them suffer an embarrassing 37-31 loss to Miami. Not sure where that (lack of) defensive effort came from. The previous four games all saw the Eagles defense give up no more than 17 points. At the same time, we don't trust what the Eagles did on offense in that game either. The previous three weeks saw them score a total of 41 points. Three times in the last six games, they scored 10 points or less. Philadelphia obviously needs this game more as somehow they've remained in playoff contention. But don't look for them to put up many points either. Same with the Giants. Play UNDER Giants-Eagles

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This is a 10* on UNDER 

This has all the makings of a pretty ugly matchup. New Orleans has lost eight straight and their last game was the most shameful of the bunch as they were beaten by 46 points. Detroit is 2-9 on the road.  The Pelicans have given up 130 or more points three times during the eight-game losing skid, including back to back games. They are without question one of the worst defensive teams in the league. But facing the Pistons is a bit of a break. Detroit only averages 105.8 points/game on the road. The Pistons last two games were each at home and they managed only 103 and 108 points in those. New Orleans has shot just 43.2% its last five games. In both losses to Dallas last week, they were held below 100 points. Under is 25-12 for Detroit last 37 times the total has been 220 or higher. When on the road, the Under is 15-3 in those games. New Orleans has gone Under in five of its last six games. Play UNDER Detroit-New Orleans

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This is a 6* on TAMPA BAY

After a record-setting regular season and a shocking first round playoff exit last season, the Lightning made for an interesting team to evaluate coming into 2019-20. Right now, they actually sit in sixth place in the Atlantic, a division they won by 21 points a season ago. However, they actually scored 15 more goals than they've allowed, which tells us that better results could be on the horizon. The Lightning are certainly being price like a real "heavyweight" for tonight's game against the Islanders. Maybe that's because of they beat San Jose 7-1 on Saturday. Or maybe it's just because the linesmakers know that this is still one of the better home teams in the league. Despite being in sixth place, the Lightning lead the league with an average of 4.3 goals/game scored at home. The Islanders aren't a great road team, primarily because they only average 2.3 goals/game there. Too much scoring will be the difference for the hosts in this one. Play on TAMPA BAY

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This is a 10* on OVER

Buffalo has been involved in some real high-scoring affairs lately. Last night's 6-5 loss in Vancouver was the highest scoring of the bunch. We have (many) reasons to believe tonight's game in Edmonton will follow the recent pattern.  The two meetings last year resulted in 9 and 7 goals being scored. The Oilers have averaged just 2.0 goals the last five games, but are at 3.4 for the year here at home. They also allow 3.3 goals/game at home. So Oilers home games are typically high scoring to begin with, then you throw in the fact Buffalo is giving up 3.5 goals/game on the road. Key forwards are back for both sides. Edmonton has given up four goals three times in the last five games. Play OVER Buffalo-Edmonton

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This is a 10* on DALLAS

The oddmakers have essentially been "asleep at the wheel" when it comes to the Mavericks team, which just surpassed the Lakers for the best point differential in the Western Conference. Following Saturday's 130-84 beatdown of New Orleans, the Mavs are outscoring teams by 10.3 points per game this season. Thus the oddsmakers probably couldn't make this number high enough for a home date with Sacramento. Dallas is 10-1 straight up and against the spread its last 11 games. Three wins, including yesterday's, have come by more than 40 points! Barring some kind of mental letdown, they should win tonight's home game with ease. The Kings have lost three games in a row, all of them to teams with losing records. This will be a third straight road game for them as well. They are just 3-9 on the road so far. Sacramento actually has the same ATS record as Dallas for the season. Both are 13-8. But the difference is that the Mavericks have seven more straight up wins. The Kings actually swept last year's season series, winning all three matchups. This is a different year. The Kings may be without both De'Aron Fox and Marvin Bagley III. They are in trouble here. Play on DALLAS.

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This is an 8* on PITTSBURGH

Because they are down to their third string quarterback, who is a rookie that came from a FCS school, the Steelers are not being taken all that seriously as playoff contenders. But compared to most teams, they are better suited to still make a run. They shouldn't have much trouble beating the 3-8-1 Cardinals this week. Pittsburgh's success starts with a defense that is allowing just 18.8 points/game. Only five teams allow fewer. Only four allow fewer than the 317.2 yards/game allowed. Now compare that to Arizona, who is last in the league at 426.3 yards/game allowed. Miami is the only team that has allowed more points.  Devlin "Duck" Hodges won the Walter Payton Award last year at Samford. That award is given out annually to the top offensive player in the FCS. Moving forward, Hodges is a better option than Mason Rudolph for Mike Tomlin.  The Cardinals have just three wins and they are by a combined 10 points. The last one came on October 20th. They aren't going to beat the Steelers. Play on PITTSBURGH

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This is an 8* play on OVER

We also like this game to go Over the total. That may sound surprising given all that is true about this Steelers defense. But remember what we said about Arizona's defense. The Cardinals are last in the league at 426.3 yards/game allowed. Miami is the only team that has allowed more points. The 2-10 Giants are the only opponent that failed to reach 23 points on them. Five of the last six games have seen the Cards give up at least 30.  If Pittsburgh is able to get to 30, then we're looking at a pretty easy Over here. Arizona's offense was pathetic in a 34-7 loss to the Rams last week, but had averaged 26 points over its three previous games. They can score between 14 and 20 here, right?  The Under has hit in every Steelers road game so far (five of them). But three of those came against teams that have top four defenses (in yards allowed). Another was against the 31st ranked scoring offense (Cincinnati). Finally, the last one that needs accounted for was on a short week (Thursday night loss to the Browns). Weather won't be a factor this week either. Play OVER Pittsburgh-Arizona

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analysis soon

This is a 10* on SAN FRANCISCO

It doesn't happen often, but both teams are 10-2. This is only the fifth such matchup in the last 35 seasons and the first since 2005. San Francisco lost a tough one last week to Baltimore to drop to 10-2. New Orleans won on Thanksgiving, though they didn't make it easy on themselves when they allowed Atlanta to recover two onside kicks. While the records may be the same, other numbers say the 49ers have been the more dominant team. Their point differential is +166, best in the NFC. The Saints point differential is only +50. The Niners outgained the Ravens 6.4 to 4.6 yards per play, which is substantial. The Saints were outgained by the Falcons, had half as many first downs, but managed to force four turnovers. The 49ers defense, which is #1 against the pass, does far better when not facing a mobile QB like Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson or Lamar Jackson. Against all other offenses, they have allowed 221.1 yards (total) and 10.6 points/game. Look for them to have success pressuring Drew Brees, who is not mobile. The better team is getting points and that's a combination we like. After falling from the #1 seed in the NFC because of last week's loss, a win here would put San Francisco right back in the driver's seat. Play on SAN FRANCISCO

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This is a 10* on the OVER

The Browns saw their playoff hopes take a major hit with last week's loss to the Steelers. This game with the Bengals no longer looks like a cakewalk as for the first time all season, Cincinnati is off a win. At least the game is at home where the Browns have won three in a row. This offense is having all sorts of problems but did score 41 two weeks ago here vs. Miami. Browns home games are seeing a total of 46.2 points/game scored this year. That's up from 40.2 on the road. With Andy Dalton back as the starting quarterback for the Bengals, they are a far greater threat to put some points on the board. We saw this last week when they put up 22 on the Jets, ending what had been a 13-game losing streak dating back to last season. That may not sound like much, but it was the most points put up by Cincy since a Week 5 loss to Arizona, a game which Dalton also started. Going with Ryan Finley was not a terrible idea by a first year coach, but it was painfully obvious Finley wasn't very good. Dalton makes this a better offense as he's auditioning for a job (probably somewhere else) next year. The Under is 6-0 in Bengals road games, but this game puts an end to that streak. Play OVER Cincinnati-Cleveland 

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This is a 10* on the OVER

Utah is mired in an awful stretch where they've lost three times by 19 or more points and five of six overall. However, lucky for them, tonight's game is against the one team they've beaten during that stretch. Memphis has lost eight of its last nine including 104-93 to the Jazz at home on November 29th. That game stayed well Under the total as neither team shot well. However, the Grizzlies did have a 55-40 halftime lead. For tonight's rematch, we like the Over. The Grizzlies are giving up 116.5 points/game and the Jazz are pretty strong at home where they are 8-2 straight up an averaging 109.0 points/game. They should do their part in getting this one Over the total, but what about Memphis? Well, while Ja Morant is still injured, Jonas Valanciunas has picked up the slack by averaging 28 points and 15.3 rebounds the last three games. The Jazz aren't quite as tight defensively as they've been in past years. Play OVER Memphis-Utah

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This is a 10* on KANSAS

We're down to 16 teams that have yet to taste defeat this College Basketball season. One of them is involved here and surprisingly it is not Kansas. Colorado has begun 7-0, but of the 10 unbeatens in action today they are one of just two getting points (Arizona @ Baylor is the other). Certainly, it would appear as if this is the time for the Buffaloes to lose for the first time. The only question is: can Kansas cover the spread? We think so. The Jayhawks have been off since the night before Thanksgiving when they rallied to defeat Dayton in overtime to win the Maui Invitational. Returning to Lawrence - where they have not played since November 19th - should be a big boon. Colorado is just 7-19 SU, 7-18-1 ATS its last 26 road games and this figures to be among the most challenging of all of them. This is their first road game this year. The Buffaloes needed a late 15-1 run to beat back Loyola Marymount Wednesday. They seem ripe for the picking here. Play on KANSAS

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This is a 10* on UNDER

UAB and Florida Atlantic will play Saturday in Boca Raton for the Conference USA Championship. These are the two previous Championship Game winners with FAU winning in 2017 and UAB winning last year. Obviously, Florida Atlantic has an edge with this Championship Game being played at home. Conference USA is one of only three conferences that play its Title Game at a campus site (American and Mountain West are the others).  Though conference rivals, it's not like UAB and FAU are regular opponents. They haven't met since 2014. From 2008-14, they did play six times. All six games went Over. We believe this one is going to go a little differently.  UAB has a great defense. They give up only 18.5 points/game. Problem is the offense struggles to score big time when it is on the road. There were back to back games at Tennessee and Southern Miss where the Blazers managed only nine points - total! UAB only faced four teams that are bowl eligible this year. The most points they scored in any of those games was 20.  Florida Atlantic surged down the stretch and has won five in a row coming into Saturday. They've averaged an impressive 37.4 points/game during that win streak. But look for the Owls to be held well below that number here. At the same time, three of those five wins saw them allow 17 points or less. Given what we know about the UAB offense, that's a realistic number here. Play UNDER UAB-Florida Atlantic

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This is a 10* on MIAMI 

Central Michigan's only win of 2018 was against Maine, an FCS team. But the Chippewas have gone from 1-11 to 8-4 and MAC Championship Game favorite in just a year's time. Collectively, the MAC was pretty weak this year. So the idea any team would be favored by a touchdown in a Championship Game scenario just doesn't seem right. This line surprised us.  Miami finished 7-5 overall and won the MAC East with a 6-2 conference record. Because they wrapped the division up three weeks ago, it meant they had nothing to play for the last two games. They only beat Akron by three and then lost by 14 last week at Ball State. We played against them both times and won! There is no shame in the RedHawks three non-conference losses as they were to Iowa, Cincinnati and Ohio State. The RedHawks are 24-8 straight up their last 34 conference games. Last week saw them rest starters in the second half, which is how a 27-14 halftime lead turned into a 41-27 loss. QB Gabbert got hurt in the 1st half, but is ready to go this week. Both teams were much better at home than on the road in the regular season. But Central Michigan had some bad losses (Buffalo, Western Michigan) and was lucky to beat Ball State after a big comeback. Expect a close game here. Rumors of Central Michigan coach Jim McElwain going to Missouri may be a distraction. Play on MIAMI OHIO

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This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE

No idea why this early season showdown isn't on ESPN. But we'll be watching as the Bucks bring a 13-game win streak into Friday. They lost just one time in November and that was in the second night of a back to back, by three points, at Utah. Ironically, that last defeat came one night after the Bucks beat the Clippers. It was 129-124 in LA as the Bucks were actually six-point road favorites. Paul George did not play in that game and neither did Kawhi Leonard. The presence of the two LA superstars is not something we feel is enough to stem the tide here in Milwaukee. The Clippers have been a dominant home team so far, going 13-1 straight up at Staples Center. But they are only 3-5 on the road (2-6 ATS). This will be among the toughest road games of the year, if not THE toughest.  The Bucks are 9-1 at home. But they're not just winning, they are consistently blowing teams out. Their average margin of victory here in Milwaukee is 15.1 points/game! Look for them to sweep this season series. Play on MILWAUKEE

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This is an 8* on ORLANDO

Cleveland has been the gift that keeps on giving for Orlando. The Magic are already 2-0 against the Cavs this season with those wins have come by 9 and 12 points. For this third meeting, the Magic come in on a three-game win streak. This is the second time Orlando has been on a three-game win streak. The first ended with a 113-97 loss to Toronto. But there's a big difference in facing the NBA Champs and the pitiful Cavs. Cleveland has lost 10 of 11 and was just beaten by 27 here at home Tuesday night. That 27-point loss was to a Pistons team that had not won consecutive games all season. The Cavs were never really in the game and trailed by as many as 35 points.  While still under .500 for the year, the Magic have always done one thing well. That's play defense. The number of points they allow - 103.4 per game - is tops in the conference. More encouraging is the way they've increased their own scoring recently. The last two games have seen them post season-highs with 127 and 128 points.  Orlando may not have a good road record, but neither does Detroit and they just blew out the Cavs. Look for the Magic to win a season-best fourth straight game. Play on ORLANDO

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This is a 10* on the UNDER

The last four St. Mary's games have all gone Over. Look for this one to buck that trend. For starters, they'll be matched up with an opponent that can play some defense. Northern Illinois opponents have shot just 38.4% for the season. The spread also suggests that we're in store for an Under. Of the last 28 times St. Mary's has been a home favorite of 12.5 to 15 points, the Under has come through 20 times. That includes a 5-1 run the last six times in the situation. Northern Illinois is going to need its defense because it doesn't shoot very well on the road. They're hitting below 40% in their three previous road games.  St. Mary's has allowed more than 66 points in a game just one time and that was to nationally ranked Utah State. NIU has only had one bad defensive effort thus far. It wasn't the last game where they kept Oakland to 50 points. Both games where Northern Illinois has been an underdog, the game has gone Under. They averaged just 53 points in the two losses. Play UNDER Northern Illinois-St. Mary's 

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This is a 10* on CHICAGO

The Bears, like the Cowboys, are 6-6. But they won on Thanksgiving. It was against a 3rd string QB mind you and by only four points, but a win is a win in this league. Dallas lost to Buffalo 26-15, which was their third setback in the last four games. They've lost six of the last nine games.  We just aren't of the mindset to be laying points with this Dallas team on the road right now. Just to illustrate how overvalued this team has been, they've been favored in all but one game this year. They have six losses.  This is the third straight week that the Cowboys are facing a top five scoring defense. Against New England and Buffalo, they managed just 9 and 15 points. The Bears have not allowed more than 22 points in any of their last six games. Chicago has only covered one of its last eight games, but what you may be surprised to learn is that this is only the third time they will be an underdog. Like Dallas, they've been an overvalued team much of the year. Not anymore. Trubisky has actually played better of late. He's thrown for 979 yards the last four games including a season-high 338 on Thanksgiving. Play on CHICAGO

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This is a 10* on the OVER

Both teams are 6-6 and coming off Thanksgiving Day games. Chicago won on Turkey Day, 24-20 over Detroit, while Dallas lost 26-15 to Buffalo. The Cowboys have lost three of their last four games and six of the last nine.  This is the third straight week the Cowboys are facing a top five scoring defense. Against New England and Buffalo, they managed just 9 and 15 points. The Bears have not allowed more than 22 points in any of their last six games. However, despite some of the recent struggles, Dallas still has the league's #1 ranked offense. We believe they'll find more success here against the Bears than they did vs. Buffalo or New England. The Bears defense has gotten to face some pretty weak opposing quarterbacks of late, third stringer David Blough being the most recent example. Dak Prescott is the NFL's leading passer. Speaking of quarterbacks, Mitchell Trubisky has actually played better of late. He's thrown for 979 yards the last four games including a season-high 338 on Thanksgiving. This total is just too low. Even if the final score is 24-21, the game goes Over. This could end up being the lowest total for any Dallas game this season. Play OVER Dallas-Chicago

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This is a 10* on the OVER

This game has the potential for lots of points. Even though their previous four have all stayed Under, Pelicans games are averaging 232.5 points this year, one of the highest marks in the league. The Suns aren't far behind at 227.7. They just allowed 128 last night and that was to an Orlando team that is last in the league in scoring. It was the third time in the last four games that Phoenix gave up at least 120 points. So New Orleans should break out of its recent scoring slump tonight.  The total is obviously high for this one. But it should be. The last four times the Suns and Pelicans have met, the fewest number of points they've combined for is 245! Obviously, all four times the Over hit. Two weeks ago, the Pelicans won 124-121 in Phoenix as both teams shot exceptionally well.  The Over is 3-0 this year when the Suns are playing in the second night of a back to back (as they are here). Play OVER Phoenix-New Orleans

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This is a 10* on TORONTO

Toronto is a team that continues to be underrated by the oddsmakers. Only the Bucks and Lakers have a better point differential on a per possession basis. Because they lost Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard, it was thought the NBA Champs would take a step back this year. That hasn't been the case at all. The Raptors just suffered their first loss at home. It saw them go to overtime with Miami on Tuesday. Given the game went to OT, the fact they lost by 11 points is misleading. They went 0 for 9 from the field in OT, eight of those misses coming from three-point land. Toronto is healthier than its been in awhile with both Serge Ibaka and Kyle Lowry back. Lowry actually returned for the Heat game. In his absence, the team played remarkably well. They'd won seven in a row prior to Tuesday. Houston is also coming off an overtime loss here. Theirs was a 2OT affair. They blew a 22-point lead, which makes things even more painful. There was a controversial call where a James Harden dunk was disallowed and obviously that was the difference in a 135-133 final. The Rockets had their own long win streak last month (eight in a row), but have actually lost four of six since. They are 5-5 on the road. Toronto deserves more respect at home. Play on TORONTO

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This is a 9* on COLUMBUS

Neither team is playing "well" at the moment. The Rangers are coming off a 4-1 loss to Vegas where it could be argued that the power play was the difference. Vegas scored twice when it had the man advantage. New York was 0 for 6. Columbus has had issues scoring - whether on the power play or at even strength. They've gone 6-9-2 the last 17 games while being held to three goals or fewer 14 times. They lost 4-2 to Arizona Tuesday right here in Ohio. This boils down to the fact the Blue Jackets have had the Rangers number. Columbus is 5-0-1 the past six meetings. We also don't see the Blue Jackets losing two straight at home. It was a similar spot on 11/29 when they were facing Pittsburgh. Two days earlier they'd dropped a home game to the Flyers. They'd go on to beat the Penguins 5-2.  The Rangers are allowing far too many shots on goal. The number is 36.5/game on the road. While they often struggle to score, the Blue Jackets are a good defensive team. Play on COLUMBUS

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This is a 10* on WASHINGTON

This seems like an easy one for the Capitals, no? The leaders in the Metropolitan travel to Los Angeles to take on the last place team in the Pacific. There is a 21-point gap between the Caps and the Kings. Sometimes that can be misleading. Not here. Last night's 5-2 win at San Jose made it four straight for Washington. They've scored at least four goals in each of the four wins. This all makes it seem like a real cheap price on what anyone would feel is the better team tonight. If you were wondering, the Capitals are 3-1 in the second night of a back to back so far this season. The Kings lost Monday in Anaheim by a score of 4-2. They have been a better team at home, but most of the teams that come to Staples Center aren't as good as the one visiting tonight. The Capitals are 12-4 after scoring at least four goals the previous game. They've won three straight in this scenario, obviously. Play on WASHINGTON

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This is an 8* on UNC

Don't look now but Ohio State is #6 in the country ... in basketball! But the unbeaten Buckeyes will face by far their toughest test of the season tonight when they visit #7 North Carolina. This is Ohio State's first road game. North Carolina finished third in the Battle 4 Atlantis Tournament. Friday's 78-74 win over Oregon (a Top 25 team) ended what was an 0-5 ATS streak. The Tar Heels only loss this year was to Michigan in that same Battle 4 Atlantis Tournament. There's no shame in that. Ohio State has covered five in a row. But they are 0-5 ATS all-time vs. UNC. Needless to say, we're going to learn just how good this team is tonight. Our view is that the Buckeyes could be at their "peak" right now and it's a good time to sell on them. This will be their biggest test defensively and while UNC has underperformed offensively (by its standard), they've still scored 75 points in every game besides the loss to Michigan.  We can't see OSU going to Chapel Hill and winning. Play on NORTH CAROLINA

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This is a 10* on UNDER

Dallas won another game last night. They beat New Orleans 118-97. Luka Doncic continues to dazzle. He had a career high 18 rebounds in Tuesday's win. The Mavs are now 8-1 straight up and against the spread their last nine games after sweeping a three-game road trip. Tonight the Mavs return home to face Minnesota. The Timberwolves just suffered an embarrassing home loss to Memphis. In a game where they were 12-point favorites, they could only muster 107 points. Minny has gone Under in six of its last seven games. Despite Dallas having the most efficient offense in the NBA, they have gone Under in two straight. They haven't shot better than 43.3% in any of their last four games. Playing in the second night of a back to back should have the usual adverse effect on shooting here. This is just the second time the Mavs have had to do it this year. Minnesota has played really well on the road so far. But we don't expect that to continue moving forward. They are currently 7-2 in road games and averaging 118.3 points/game. Seems destined for a fall.  Dallas has had only one game with a total of at least 230 points. It was last night's game, which went Under by 19 points. Play UNDER Minnesota-Dallas

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This is a 10* on INDIANA

The Pacers deserve to be favorites here and we anticipate they will be by tipoff. They've won six of their last seven games and shot at least 50% from the field in their last five victories. Oklahoma City has actually performed a whole lot better than we thought they would. There was a mass talent exodus in the offseason with Paul George leaving for LA and Russell Westbrook going to Houston. Yet the Thunder are a somewhat respectable 8-11 SU on the year.  But they just swept a home and home from New Orleans, meaning they were 6-11. Both wins over the Pelicans were close as it was a five-point win in OKC and a three-point win in NO.  Since starting 0-3, Indiana has gone 13-4 with two of the four losses coming by three points or less. The other two were to Houston and Milwaukee, two of the league's better teams.  The big key here is that OKC is just 1-7 SU vs. teams that have winning records. Play on INDIANA

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This is a 10* on the OVER

The Clippers scored 150 points in their last game and did so in a most unique way. Only four players scored more than 10 points. It was just the fifth time in NBA history that's happened and the first since the '89 Sonics. It wasn't even the first time the Clippers scored 150 this year. They did so against Atlanta on November 16th, also at home. In putting together a 12-1 home record, LA has averaged 116.4 points/game at Staples Center. This is a very good team, obviously. Even with three straight wins, Portland is a disappointing 8-12 this season. But the three-game win streak is encouraging, even if two of the wins came against Chicago. In between beating the Bulls twice, the Blazers scored 136 against Oklahoma City. So expect a high scoring game tonight. The Blazers are 5-1 Over this year when facing a team with a winning record. When these teams played last month, they combined to miss 47 of 62 three-point attempts (Clippers were in the second night of a back to back). That won't happen again. Play OVER Portland-LA Clippers

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This is a 10* on NEW MEXICO STATE

This is actually an early season rematch. UTEP won the first game, 65-50 as 2.5-point underdogs. But that was in El Paso. Tonight's visit to Las Cruces marks the first time the Miners have to hit the road this season.  UTEP is undefeated (5-0), but has hardly faced the stiffest competition. Three of their wins have come against non-board teams. They beat New Mexico by three. The win over NMSU, which was the second game of the season, was the most impressive so far. But it speaks volumes that they are still underdogs to a 4-4 team they've already beaten.  New Mexico State should be plenty motivated tonight. Not just because they are taking the court with revenge, but also because they were upset by George Mason in their last game. As a 5.5-point favorite, they lost 68-64. That game took place out on the Cayman Islands and saw NMSU blow a 12-point halftime advantage. There are several reasons the Aggies lost that first game vs. UTEP. One was they missed 9 of 11 free throw attempts. It was an all-around bad shooting night at 36.8% from the floor. That shouldn't be the case tonight at home. This Aggies team could easily be 6-2 right now and should get its revenge. Play on NEW MEXICO STATE

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This is an 8* on FLORIDA 

Minnesota has won three in a row. We took them on Friday when they downed Ottawa 7-2, which was their biggest win to date in terms of margin. But that was at home as was Sunday's 3-1 win over Dallas. The Wild have been a much better team at home so far, going 7-1-2 as opposed to 5-10-2 on the road. They are back on the road tonight, visiting Florida. The Panthers are in second place in the Atlantic Division right now with only the red hot Bruins ahead of them. What's interesting is that the gap between the Panthers and Bruins is almost as large as the gap between the Panthers and the last place team in the division, Detroit. While a division title may not be in the cards for Florida, they still should easily beat this Minnesota team. The Panthers are 7-3-2 SU at home. The favorite has won eight of the last 10 times these teams have played. The home team has won four straight. Minnesota has been without goalie Devan Dubnyk, which will eventually catch up with them. Florida has turned to 25-year old Chris Driedger, who earned a shutout in his first career NHL start on Saturday. The Panthers won 3-0 over Nashville.  While the Wild are only averaging 2.4 goals/game on the road, the Panthers average 3.7 here at home. Play FLORIDA

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This is a 10* on OVER

The Vikings come into this game at 8-3. The Seahawks are 9-2. It should be a good one at Century Link Field on Monday with two of the NFC's best teams looking to improve their respective playoff positioning. Minnesota is off a bye, which seems helpful. Quarterback Kirk Cousins has had his fair share of struggles on Monday Night Football (0-7 SU and ATS!), but he comes into tonight's game with the highest passer rating in the NFL. Seattle QB Russell Wilson is #2.  Both teams come in averaging roughly the same number of points per game. Minnesota is at 26.3 while Seattle is at 26.5. The Vikings defense allows about six points/game fewer.  The Vikings have scored at least 23 points in seven of the last eight games. There have been only three games this season where they failed to score 23 points. Five of the last six have gone Over including three straight. The Seahawks are coming off a low-scoring win over Philadelphia (17-9), but before that had scored at least 27 points in eight of nine games.  Really surprising is that Seattle allows 29.2 points/game at home. The Vikings defense has allowed an average of 6.2 yards/play the last three games, which isn't good. Play OVER Minnesota-Seattle

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This is a 10* on the UNDER

The Jazz suffered a humiliating 130-110 loss in Toronto last night, which included an all-time bad first half. They were down 77-37 going into the break. That's the largest halftime deficit in Utah history and the eighth largest in NBA history! It was the second time on this road trip where the Jazz got blown out. They also lost by 19 at Indiana on Wednesday. They are just 1-3 SU on said trip, which ends tonight in Philadelphia. The Sixers have won three in a row including beating Indiana on Saturday, which improved their home record to a perfect 9-0. This is the second straight game where the Jazz are facing a team that hasn't lost a home game. The Raptors and Sixers are two of only three teams yet to lose at home. Miami is the other. You have to figure the Jazz will come out motivated tonight. We expect better play at the defensive end where they still rank in the top 10 in efficiency. They are 9th, one spot below Philadelphia. Neither team ranks in the top half in offensive efficiency. This is a rematch from an early season game won by the Jazz in Utah, 106-104. Look for a little less scoring this time. Play UNDER Utah-Philadelphia

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This is a 10* on VANCOUVER

Vancouver goes for a home and home sweep tonight against Edmonton. They won in Alberta 5-2 yesterday.  Key to last night's win were a couple of early goals, one on the power play and the other short-handed. The teams were even at even strength, though the Canucks had the edge in shots.  Despite being the 1st place team in the Pacific, the Oilers give up a lot of goals. They've allowed 19 in the last five games and 34 in the last nine. Three times in their last five games, Vancouver has scored five or more. The Canucks have won 3 of 5 and one of the losses saw them blow a three-goal lead in the final six minutes. Edmonton has pulled off a lot of come from behind victories this year, which isn't really a viable pathway for success. They are 25th in Corsi For %. Play on VANCOUVER

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This is an 8* play on OVER

The Patriots have held every opponent but one to 14 points or less. That one exception was Baltimore, who hung 37. That's New England's only loss. Tonight, they face another dynamic, playmaking QB in DeShaun Watson. While the Patriots may very well win this game, expect them to give up more points than they usually do. The Texans are 7-4 and lead the AFC South by one game over Indianapolis and Tennessee. With those two teams playing each other this week, a loss here by Houston would guarantee a first place tie in the division. So this is a really important game for the Texans. Unfortunately, they've managed to beat the Patriots only one time in franchise history. Eight of the 11 all-time meetings have gone Over with New England scoring at least 27 in the last 10.  Houston has scored at least 20 points in every game but three. Two of those three came in the first four weeks. The other was vs. Baltimore. While they've gone Under in four straight, the only time the defense was really tested, they gave up 41 points. Much is being made of New England's recent offensive struggles. Even Tom Brady has been pretty vocal about it. But we expect a big game from Brady tonight. Houston's defense has allowed over 500 yards rushing in the three games since JJ Watt got hurt. Keep an eye on receiver N'Keal Henry, who caught a TD last week for the Patriots. Play OVER New England-Houston

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This is a 10* on BOSTON

Boston took a loss in Brooklyn Friday afternoon, a game in which they didn't even face former teammate Kyrie Irving. Maybe it was the early start, but the Celtics didn't come out sharp and fell behind by 14 points in the first quarter. They never really recovered.  It should be a much easier time against New York's other team, the Knicks, who have lost five straight to fall to 4-15. In those five straight losses, NY has scored no more than 104 points. They couldn't even hold a 16-point lead against Philadelphia Friday, losing here at home 101-95.  The Celtics remain one of the league's premier defensive teams as they are holding opponents to a 43.2 FG%. They have lost two games in a row just one time this season and those were road games vs. the Nuggets and Clippers. The only previous time they lost a game where they were favored to win, they came back and won the next one by 14 points. This is the third meeting already this season. The Knicks played the Celtics tough in Boston, losing by just two, but also lost at home to them by 23. This is a bottom five team with nothing going for it. Play accordingly. Play on BOSTON

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This is an 8* on WASHINGTON

We just don't see Carolina winning this game by double digits. Not after last week's tough 34-31 loss to New Orleans, their fourth loss in the past five weeks. Washington actually won last week, so there's at least some positivity for a 2-win team. The Panthers haven't been a double digit favorite in over three years. Believe it or not, they've been asked to lay this many only six previous times in franchise history! The only two times they were favored by more than a field goal this year came in home games against Atlanta and Tampa Bay. They lost both. There are two key injuries Carolina will have to deal with, both of them season enders. The bigger of the two is to DT Dontari Poe, who had been quite the disruptive presence. The other is along the offensive line with Greg Van Roten. The Redskins defense has actually done a somewhat admirable job recently. They've held four of their last six opponents below 20 points and only one scored more than 24. If they can do that again, then this should be an easy cover. Play on WASHINGTON

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This is a 10* on the UNDER

We'll try this again. Nine straight Tampa Bay games have gone Over. At least this week, they've got an opponent that shouldn't do much in the way of scoring.Jacksonville has lost three straight (all division games) and averaged only 12 points/game in doing so. Since returning, Nick Foles hasn't meant much. Whether it's been Foles or Gardner Minshew II at quarterback, the Jaguars are still averaging less than 20 points/game this year. The Jaguars defense was gashed badly last week by Tennessee. At one point, they allowed four touchdowns in six plays. Now they are dealing with injuries on top of that. It looks bad and Tampa Bay's offense certainly has big play capability. But look for the Jags somehow, someway to be better on defense. Bucs QB Jameis Winston can certainly be a drive-killer with his turnovers. Jacksonville's offense isn't going to do much here and because of that, the game will stay Under. Each of the last three weeks, Tampa's games have not gone Over until the final minute. Play UNDER Tampa Bay-Jacksonville

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This is a 10* on CINCINNATI

The Bengals are 0-11 (have lost 13 in a row going back to last year), are turning back to Andy Dalton (seems desperate) and are 0-4 ATS this year when getting less than six points. But we're still going to go with them. That may sound suicidal. But consider what we're fading here. The Jets are road favorites just three weeks removed from a 1-7 start. They have won three in a row, scoring 34 in every game. But they are 0-2 ATS as a favorite this season and lost outright both times. Going back more, they are 1-5 SU and ATS their last six times as a favorite. Cincy hasn't won this year, but they've been close numerous times. Over half their defeats have seen them come within one score.  In terms of trying to get a win, Dalton is probably better than the ineffective Ryan Finley. The coaching staff was right to see what they had in Finley, but it turns out it wasn't much.  Remember that the Jets lost in Miami. Before that, it had been two years since they'd been a road favorite. They lost that time too, 23-0. They have not closed higher than -3 on the road since 2011. Play on CINCINNATI

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This is a 10* on ARMY

Army is 5-6 and needs a win to go bowling for a third consecutive season. Hawaii is 8-3 and has the Mountain West Championship Game (vs. Boise State) on deck. This seems like an excellent opportunity to take Army plus the points. Army is also coming off a bye as well as two easy opponents before that. Hawaii just won a hard fought game last week against San Diego State that came down to a missed field goal. The Warriors won 14-11 to clinch their division and thus move onto the Mt West's Championship Game next week. For the record, we were on Hawaii last week. They were our 10* Game of the Week, in fact! When getting set to face Army, an extra week of preparation is beneficial because of the triple option. Well, not only does Hawaii not have the extra week to prepare, they've got to be thinking about next week's game vs. Boise State. That one is more important to these players and coaching staff. As for Army, winning here is all that matters so that they can get to six wins. When coming off a bye, they've gone 6-1 SU/5-2 ATS. They've also covered 9 of 13 as underdogs with five outright wins. Hawaii is 3-6 SU, 2-6-1 ATS coming off back to back wins. Play on ARMY

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This is a 10* play on the UNDER

There are definitely some distinct patterns emerging with these two teams. Really, the recent results couldn't be any more different. Houston has won 9 of its last 12 games (also going 10-2 ATS) while Atlanta has lost 12 of 13, including eight straight. The Hawks lost last night, in overtime, 105-104 at Indiana. But the Hawks have at least managed to halt one streak this week. Prior to Wednesday's 111-102 loss to Milwaukee, they'd gone Over in 10 consecutive games. Last night's loss also stayed Under even though the game went to overtime.  This many Atlanta games going Over the total is a little bit surprising in that they are dead last in the league in offensive efficiency. While also bad defensively, they're not quite as inept, ranking only 24th in efficiency there.  The Rockets are 6-1 to the Under when facing an Eastern Conference team this season. They are 10-4 their last 14 games overall. Both times these teams met last season, the Under hit. The totals were pretty similar to the number we're getting tonight. Play UNDER Atlanta-Houston

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This is a 10* on CENTRAL MICHIGAN

As a double digit dog, Central Michigan was up 50-32 at halftime on undefeated DePaul Tuesday. Not only did the Chippewas end up not winning, they also failed to cover! A disastrous second half yielded a final score of 88-75. They were getting 11 from the oddsmakers. CMU will need to "dust itself off" as they are back home Saturday to take on Youngstown State. This is a team they defeated last year, on the road, 100-94. They were 8-point favorites, meaning that they didn't cover there either. But it also means we're getting some good value. Here, the Chippewas are favored by less at home than they were last year on the road. Unless there's been some substantial improvement with YSU that we're unaware of, then this line makes no sense. The Penguins have played only one team of any real note, that being Louisville. They lost by 33 points. They've also lost by 22 to Akron and 12 to Louisiana. Both of those were road games. Central Michigan's schedule hasn't been all that impressive either, but they are among the highest scoring teams in the country at 96.1 points/game. Coming off the disappointing loss, we're looking for them to win in blowout fashion here. Play on CENTRAL MICHIGAN 

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This is a 10* on BOSTON COLLEGE 

Boston College has won exactly 7 games in five of Steve Adazzio's six seasons here in Chesnut Hill. The outlier season was 2015 when the Golden Eagles went 3-9. To get to 7 wins again this year, they are going to have to first win this week and then a bowl game. There won't be a bowl for B.C. if they lose this week at Pittsburgh. They enter in at 5-6 after losing 40-7 last week at Notre Dame. This will now be the third try for six wins. They also lost at home to Florida State three weeks ago. Fortunately for BC, Pitt doesn't have much to play for here. The Panthers have 7 wins, so they'll be in a bowl. But they were shutout last week, 28-0, by Virginia Tech. We question whether this Panthers team can even score enough to cover a spread this big. They only average 20.2 points/game. None of Pitt's seven wins have been by more than 10 points.  With only one meeting as ACC rivals, there's some unfamiliarity here. Pitt has been outscored despite a 7-4 record - by 1.3 points/game. B.C. has a virtually identical scoring differential. So this is a line that should be closer to a field goal. Some real value on a underdog that will be more motivated than the favorite. Play on BOSTON COLLEGE

AAA

This is an 8* play on the OVER

Georgia will be playing LSU in the SEC Championship Game next week, but first they've got this date with Georgia Tech. It shouldn't be a very difficult game as the Yellow Jackets are struggling this year. We look for the Bulldogs to score a lot of points in this one, many more than they've been scoring against SEC defenses. Georgia Tech used to run the option under Paul Johnson, but has transitioned to a more pro style offense under first year coach Geoff Collins. As you'd expect, it's been a difficult transition with personnel fit for the old system. The Yellow Jackets are averaging only 17.5 points/game. But they did just score 28 in win over NC State last week. QB James Graham accounted for all four touchdowns, three throwing and one running. Georgia hasn't scored more than 27 points in six straight games. But look at some of the defenses they've had to go up against. Georgia Tech is giving up over 30 points/game, so expect this to be a big day for QB Jake Fromm and the rest of the Bulldogs offense. Georgia did score at least 30 in four of its first five games including 55+ in the two non-conference games that weren't Notre Dame. Six straight Unders is the streak Georgia is on coming into this game. It's time for the offense to finally get rolling again. They've scored 83 on Ga Tech the last two years and can send this one Over by themselves. Play OVER Georgia-Georgia Tech

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This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE

The Cavs aren't a good team. They've lost eight of nine and just got beat here at home by Orlando by 12 points. That doesn't bode well as Milwaukee comes to town Friday night. The Bucks are 15-3 and have won nine in a row. They look every bit as strong as they did last year when they won 60 games.  Not only have the Cavs lost eight of nine games, they've also gone 2-7 against the spread. They rank near the bottom of the league both offensively and defensively.  Milwaukee beat Cleveland by 17 earlier in the year with seven players scoring in double figures. This is an elite team (maybe the best in the league?) matched up against one of the five worst. Should be easy pickings. Play on MILWAUKEE

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This is an 8* on SOUTH ALABAMA

South Alabama is finishing up a terrible season here (Jaguars come in at 1-10 SU), but we're banking on Arkansas State being a disinterested favorite Friday afternoon. Despite having very different records, these Sun Belt opponents may not be as far apart as you think. Arkansas State is 7-4. All they can do with a win here is improve their bowl position. The Red Wolves have won four in a row, but the last three have all been decided by seven points or less. Compare that to poor South Alabama who has generally been competitive, but can't quite get over the hump. Having a freshman QB hasn't helped the Jaguars cause, but at least there have been signs of improvement from Desmond Trotter. Key here is that Arkansas State has a terrible defense. The Red Wolves have allowed the second most yards in the Sun Belt. They allow 34.9 points/game overall and 41.6 points/game on the road. Despite a winning record, they have given up more points than they've scored this year. They've been outgained the last two weeks. South Alabama hasn't beaten a FBS opponent this year. Their only win came against Jacksonville State. But they are playing the final game at home, which should mean some motivation. The last three years have seen the Jaguars go 3-0 in SBC home finales. Arkansas State isn't likely to take this game too seriously. They'll be happy with just winning, but don't look for a blowout. Play on SOUTH ALABAMA

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This is an 8* on TCU

TCU has to pick itself up here after a close loss to Oklahoma last Saturday night. Lucky for them is that they have the motivation of needing to win here to get to a bowl game. West Virginia should be happy to oblige. This has been a bad season in Morgantown. The Mountaineers have lost six out of their last seven games. Their hopes of going to a bowl ended last week when they lost at home to Oklahoma State by a score of 20-13. TCU has had its share of close defeats as well. Five of the six times they've lost this year, the final margin has been within a touchdown. But they were in this exact situation last year, needing to win the final regular season game. They did just that, beating Oklahoma State by a touchdown. It's a weaker opponent this time around, one that has nothing left to play for. The Horned Frogs also have some revenge on their minds after losing 47-10 last season in Morgantown. To us, it's not a question of whether or not TCU wins. They will. It's a question of "by how much?" With WVU having gone 5-10-2 its last 17 tries as an underdog, it doesn't look good for them Friday afternoon in Ft. Worth. The home team has won four straight in this rivalry. Play on TCU

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This is a 6* on MINNESOTA

Ottawa isn't a good team and they are set to embark on a five-game road trip that will take them all around North America. With only one goal scored in the last two games, we don't like their chances very much today in Minnesota. The Wild aren't exactly tearing it up either as they are the last place team in the Central. But they've shown more life than the Senators have. They just won in New Jersey on Wednesday, which was the fourth time in the last five games they played on the road. The one home game was a 3-2 win against Colorado. Minnesota simply hasn't gotten to play many times at their own rink this season. Of their 25 games played, 17 have been on the road. Only once have the Wild lost a home game in regulation. They are 5-1-2 at the Xcel Center. They also shut out the Senators earlier this year, 2-0 in Ottawa. Play on MINNESOTA

AAA

This is a 10* on MINNESOTA

DePaul pulled off a miracle on Tuesday. Trailing 50-32 at halftime vs. Central Michigan, they rallied not just to win, but to cover as 12-point favorites. The final score was 88-75. The Blue Demons are now 7-0, but are underdogs Friday to a 3-3 Minnesota team. For good reason. Not just is the game on the road, but one of their top rotation players (Devin Gage) is nursing an ankle injury. Only six players saw the floor for more than 10 minutes against Central Michigan. DePaul's defense was also very bad in the 1st half of that last game. They were slow to rotate, constantly falling for pump-fakes and had allowed 50 points by halftime. It was a complete turnaround in the 2nd half, but that's a game they were lucky to win, let alone cover. They were basically down for the first 30 minutes of the game. Minnesota has three losses, but two were on the road and the other to a pretty good Oklahoma team. The Golden Gophers beat Central Michigan in much more convincing fashion last week, winning by 25.  All three times Minnesota has been favored, they have covered the spread. Play on MINNESOTA

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

Missouri's season has completely gone off a cliff with five straight losses. Adding insult to injury, their bowl ban for 2019 was just upheld. Had the ban been overturned, the Tigers could have gotten to a bowl by winning the regular season finale.If there's one team in the SEC that's definitely in worse shape than Mizzou, it's Arkansas. The Razorbacks already fired their coach and a loss today would mean a second consecutive 2-10 season. With nothing on the line but alleged "pride" Friday afternoon in Fayatteville, we expect plenty of points to be scored in this one. Really, does either side have any pride left? Arkansas just lost its first game for interim Barry Lunney Jr, 56-20 to LSU. They at least covered as 40+ point underdogs. But it was the fifth straight game the Razorbacks allowed at least 45 points. Mizzou will relish facing a defense like Arkansas's as the Tigers have had all sorts of issues scoring during their losing skid. At least last week they got to 20 points against Tennessee. The previous four games saw the Tigers a total of only 27 points. We'll call for their best offensive performance since October 12th here.  The Over is 7-2 in Arkansas previous nine home games vs. a team with a losing road record. (Missouri hasn't won on the road in 2019.) The Over is also 10-4 when the Hogs are off an ATS win. Play OVER Missouri-Arkansas

AAA

This is a 10* on BALL STATE

The first thing that caught our eye here was that a 4-7 team was favored over a 7-4 opponent. Our raw numbers are in agreement that Ball State is in fact the better team, so we'll be laying the points in this "unique situation."  There have been four instances of a 4-7 team (or worse) being favored over a 7-4 team (or better). Sadly for our case, the chalk has never covered. But there are two factors that differentiate this game from all previous incarnations. One is that this is a conference game. Two is that the underdog has a more important game on deck. Miami is playing for the MAC Championship next week, which will be its first appearance in that game since 2007. They do not yet know their opponent. It'll be Central Michigan if the Chippewas beat Toledo, a game that takes place at the same time as this one. The MAC Championship is what is on the players and coaches minds. For Ball State, this is basically their "bowl game" as they've got nothing else to play for. The Cardinals deserve a better fate than staying home for the postseason. They've lost four in a row with three of those losses coming by a total of eight points. There's some revenge in the air in Muncie with Ball State having lost to Miami three years in a row. Note BSU is averaging 41.0 points/game at home. Miami averages just 15.8 points/game on the road. Play on BALL STATE

AAA

This is a 10* on ATLANTA

Everyone will be expecting the Saints to exact revenge for their shocking loss to the Falcons three weeks ago. That game saw New Orleans come in as a 14-point favorite and lose 26-9. The 31-point difference between the spread and the final outcome was one of the largest we’ve seen this NFL season. Winning is one thing, but covering the spread is a different outcome. For the Saints, beating anyone by more than a touchdown has been a problem despite their 9-2 record. A 34-31 escape against Carolina last week was the Saints sixth win this year by seven points or fewer. Atlanta had a great follow up to the win over New Orleans. They beat Carolina 29-3. But then last week, they looked more like the team that started the season 1-7. They lost at home to Tampa 35-22. They still haven’t won a home game since Week 2! Getting back to New Orleans lack of domination, they have a point differential of only +42. That might sound alright, but nine teams are better and not all of them have as many wins. Last week easily could have been a loss, but Carolina missed a chip shot field goal. This spread is just too high. The Falcons had been playing so much better before running into a Bucs team that caught fire for one game. Eventually, a home game will be won. Their pass rush swallowed up Drew Brees in the first game and the Saints offensive line is now weaker due to injuries. Atlanta is capable of beating New Orleans twice. PLAY ON ATLANTA

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This is a 10* on MISS ST

This line seems awfully strange given that Mississippi State needs the game to get bowl eligible. Rival Ole Miss is 4-7 SU, so you won't be seeing them in any bowl. Obviously, the Rebels will still come out motivated given who the opponent is. But it's not as if MSU won't feel the same way, if not more so, based on what a loss would mean to them. While its easy to say Miss State has regressed under Joe Moorhead, a lot of talent was lost from last year's team which had the #2 defense in all of the FBS. Especially along the defensive line. The Bulldogs have given up over 2x as many points this year compared to last.  But looking at MSU's season, it's easy to see what the problem is. They just didn't fare well against good teams. As underdogs, their record is 0-4 straight up and against the spread. They lost those four games by an average of 26.5 points/game. But the Bulldogs are slight favorites here, as they should be, for a game they have to win. They'll be looking to reverse a trend that has seen the visitor win the last four Egg Bowls.  Ole Miss has just two wins since Oct 5th. It was against New Mexico State. Their two SEC wins were against Arkansas and Vanderbilt, each of whom occupy last place in the respective divisions. The only other Rebels win was against a FCS school. As an underdog, they are 0 for 6 (SU) this year. Miss State is the better team and we will play accordingly. Play on MISSISSIPPI STATE

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This is a 10* on OVER

This hasn't been your average Spurs team. The current stretch - where they've lost nine of 10 - is one of the worst ever under Greg Popovich. The one win was against the Knicks. Part of the regression, maybe even the biggest one, is defense. Normally, you see San Antonio among the league leaders in points allowed. This year, they are giving up 115.3 points/game. Saturday's win over the Knicks marked the only time in the last three weeks the Spurs didn't allow at least 110 points. They've allowed 110+ in all but four games this year. Minnesota just scored 125 on Atlanta two nights ago, ending a streak where they'd gone Under four straight times. The Timberwolves aren't very sound themselves defensively. They also give up more than 115 points/game. But one interesting tidbit about this T'wolves team is how much they are scoring on the road. Their 119.2 points/game scoring average in road games is second highest in the league. So one of the highest totals of the Popovich era shouldn't surprise you here. Minnesota is 6-0 Over this year against teams with a losing record. The Spurs are 6-12. The Over has hit seven of the last eight times these teams have met. Play OVER Minnesota-San Antonio

AAA

This is a 7* on PITTSBURGH

Pittsburgh came through for us on Monday, winning a shootout against Calgary. The Penguins now look to complete a perfect three-game homestand as they host Vancouver Wednesday night. The Canucks have not played all that well of late, though they did pull a couple upsets on this road trip. Still, despite wins in Nashville and Washington, Vancouver has lost 8 of its last 11 games. They were beaten 2-1 in Philadelphia Monday night as they were limited to just 17 shots on goal. Even the two wins on this road trip were not the most well-played games by the Canucks. They got an unusual five power play goals against Nashville, the kind of edge they may not enjoy again the rest of this season. Against Washington, they pulled off a late rally. It's not been a good November for the team hailing from B.C.  Pittsburgh is still trying to work its way through the Sidney Crosby injury, but there's more than enough talent on hand to compensate for his absence. This is Vancouver's fifth straight road game, not a great spot, while the Penguins are playing a third straight at home. Canucks average 2.5 goals on the road. Penguins average 3.4 at home. Play on PITTSBURGH

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This is an 8* on GEORGIA STATE

Unlike many of the games on the Wednesday slate, this is not a Holiday Tournament. Georgia State welcomes Charlotte to Atlanta with both teams looking to get over .500 for the year. Georgia State is 3-3 while Charlotte is 2-2. Georgia State is a perfect 5-0 ATS, including a cover against Duke. The Panthers will be happy to be back home where they've only gotten to play once so far. That one time was the first game of the season where they blew out Brewton-Parker 104-35. Charlotte lost its last game, 64-55 to Appalachian State. That game took place last Thursday. The 49ers were coming off two straight upsets, one over Davidson and the other over Wake Forest. Both were at home. The last game was a reality check for Charlotte as they were held to 55 points on 36.7% shooting. Can't see them pulling off a third upset in four games here. Georgia State, who has scored 80 points in four of its six games, is going to be extra motivated upon this return home. Charlotte is 0-2 on the road. An afternoon start time is an advantage for the home side. Play on GEORGIA STATE

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This is a 10* on WASHINGTON

Denver is 12-3. They've won five games in a row and nine of their last 10. They were a double digit favorite in their last game and covered the spread (barely), beating a rising Suns team 116-104.  Washington is a young team with a 5-9 record. But the Wizards can score. They are averaging 119.1 points/game. Only Milwaukee scores more than that. The Wizards aren't great defensively and they did just drop a home game to Sacramento on Sunday. But they were favorites in that loss and got held to 106 points. Hitting their scoring average here would likely mean a very easy ATS win, given how many points they are getting. Before they lost to the Kings, Washington had covered five straight times. They won three of the five games, including two as underdogs. Denver's defense definitely presents a challenge. But the Wizards are 8-1 ATS as underdogs so far and 6-1 ATS on the road. Because the Nuggets play at the second slowest pace in the league, they aren't likely to break away in this one. Play on WASHINGTON

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

An 'Original Six' rivalry is renewed tonight in Montreal where the Canadiens host the Bruins. The visitors are playing as well as any team in the league currently. They have 35 points (t2nd) and lead the Atlantic Division. Boston's +23 goal differential is best in the league. But not all news is good coming out of Beantown. Center Patrice Bergeron won't be making the trip because of a lower-body injury. The Bruins also gave up four goals in their last game, but were fortunate enough to still win in overtime (5-4 at Minnesota). Montreal is also coming off a high-scoring game, but theirs was a 6-5 loss to the Rangers. They blew a 4-0 lead in that one despite outshooting the Rangers 43-34. With both teams off such high-scoring affairs, our call for tonight is on the Over. You've got two teams averaging 3.5 goals/game. Boston has at least four goals in four of its last six. The Over is 4-1 the last five games for Montreal with them scoring 5 two different times. Looking at the goalies, Boston is going with their backup tonight (Jaroslav Halak) while Carey Price has really struggled for the Canadiens of late. Play OVER Boston-Montreal

AAA

This is an 8* on ST. BONAVENTURE

What makes this an interesting matchup is that the underdog is off an upset win while the favorite lost in that same role its last game. We'll use this backdrop and take what the undervalued side on Tuesday, which is the chalk. St. Bonaventure is only 1-4 after losing at Canisius on Saturday. The Bonnies were five-point favorites there and lost 61-57. It was not a good shooting night nor did they do an effective job at rebounding. But before losing to Canisius, the Bonnies did win as underdogs over Rutgers at a neutral site. The problem for this team so far is that they have lost straight all three times they've been favored! The third time may not have been the charm agains Canisius, but we believe the fourth will tonight vs. Mercer. The underdog Bears had not covered the first two times they were underdogs this season, but then sprung a surprise on IL-Chicago Saturday, winning that game 72-68 as 4.5-point dogs.  Mercer gives up a lot of points. An average of 80.2 per game to be exact. St. Bonaventure is allowing just 67.8. The favorite is hungry for a win at home where they are 0-2. Bonnies get the win and cover. Play on ST. BONAVENTURE

AAA

This is an 8* on TN STATE

San Diego State is 4-0 against the spread in addition to being undefeated, so it's no wonder that they are such large favorites Monday night. But the Tennessee State team that are hosting just hung tough with #12 Texas Tech and won't be intimidated in the least. That game at Texas Tech saw Tennessee State lost by only 15 as a 24.5 point underdog. With that cover, the Tigers move to 20-6 ATS the last 26 times they have been a road underdog of 18.5 to 24.5 points. San Diego State's last game against Long Island was not lined. But the Aztecs won by 17. The only game that's been closer for them was the 76-71 upset at BYU where they were a 4-point underdog. Yet consistently winning by double digits is hard in this sport. Tennessee State's only loss besides the one to Texas Tech was by 2 points at UT-Chattanooga. They trailed Texas Tech by only five at halftime. Look for the underdog to stay within the number here. Play on TENNESSEE STATE

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This is a 10* on LOS ANGELES

Baltimore is really rolling. A six-game win streak has included victories over Seattle, New England and Houston. Granted, they’ve also inflated their point differential at the expense of some bad teams. But there is no denying the Ravens are the hottest team in the NFL right now. But that distinction can often come with a price. That price is catching attention from the betting public. The public has driven this number up as the Ravens are laying a field goal to the Rams in LA. The Rams haven’t been home dogs in quite awhile. The only time it’s happened under Sean McVay was a meaningless Week 17 game back in 2017. The Rams are 3-0 ATS in primetime this year. They beat Cleveland on the road, covered at Seattle and then last week beat Chicago. West Coast teams, because of the body clock issue, have the edge over Eastern counterparts in night games. Over the last four games, the Rams defense has allowed just 44 points. That’s the fewest points allowed by any team the last four weeks. The run by the defense has coincided with the Jalen Ramsey trade. On offense, they’ll be getting WR Cooks back from injury tonight. Baltimore is due for an off game. Our raw number suggest this line should be a pick ‘em. Play on LOS ANGELES

AAA

This is a 9* on PITTSBURGH

Calgary was able to snap a 6-game losing streak on Saturday as they rallied to beat Philadelphia in a shootout. But look for the joy to be short-lived. Tonight they head to Pittsburgh, a place where most Western Conference teams have not fared well this year.  The Penguins are still trying to work their way through the Sidney Crosby injury. But by re-tooling their top line, things look like they'll be just fine without their superstar. Malkin-Guentzel-Rust are playing quite well with each other. Malkin has 20 points in the last six games while his new linemates have combined for six goals.  The Flames don't do much scoring on the road where they are averaging a league-low 1.8 goals/game. During their 6-game losing streak, they were shutout three times and all three were away from home. Pittsburgh's goal differential is +18. Calgary is at -15. The Flames have also lost 7 of 11 games to teams that have winning records. Play on PITTSBURGH

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This is an 8* on INDIANA

Memphis deserves some credit for keeping it close against the Lakers Saturday as they lost by only 1 points. But it was still a third straight loss at home. Playing at Indiana Monday looks to be a mismatch for a team with the third worst scoring differential in the league. Indiana has won two straight and six of eight. The only losses were to Houston and Milwaukee, who are two of the league's better teams. The Pacers seem to have settled in nicely as one of the top six teams in the Eastern Conference, a place where we expected them to be coming into the season. Injuries haven't even really slowed the Pacers down. Victor Oladipo hasn't played at all this year. Malcolm Brogden is expected to return to the lineup tonight. Six Pacers were in double figures in the last game, a 111-106 win over Orlando. Memphis is giving up 117.8 points per game, which is a lot. Only three teams allow more. Indiana is allowing only 98.0 points over its last five games. Play on INDIANA

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This is a 10* on the CLIPPERS

This is a terrible spot for New Orleans. They lost in Utah last night and gave up 128 points despite the Jazz not having Rudy Gobert. Defensive woes are nothing new for the Pelicans. They’ve allowed an average of 119.6 points in all games this season. That’s the second most in the league. Tonight they are up against the Clippers, who have been a dominant home team thus far. LA is 10-1 at Staples Center after beating Houston here on Friday. The Clippers were upset out in New Orleans 10 days ago and so they’ll be looking to exact some revenge tonight. They have gone 6-3-1 ATS their last 10 revenge games. A big spread does not scare us as the Clippers are already winning by more than 10 points/game at home. An opponent that one of the worst defensive teams and played last night should make for easy prey. The Pelicans have been playing short-handed and the Clippers have the highest scoring bench in the entire NBA. New Orleans was down by as much as 20 last night. Play on LA CLIPPERS

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This is a 10* on TENNESSEE

This is a revenge game for Tennessee. They lost to Jacksonville in Week 3, on a Thursday night, 20-7. They were actually a small road favorite there as the Jags were 0-2 at the time. Jacksonville has not swept the season series since 2005. The Titans have won the last four home meetings and the home team is on a 12-5 ATS run in this rivalry. We’re not convinced about the long-term viability of Ryan Tannehill as the Titans quarterback, but he is 3-1 as the starter. Jacksonville has now dropped both games Nick Foles has started. They didn’t look good last week in a 33-13 loss to the Colts. Foles is 4-10 ATS as a starter in his career in games not with the Eagles. Jacksonville’s defense ranks 29th vs. the run. Titans running back Henry should have a big game. Play on TENNESSEE

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This is an 8* on CINCINNATI

As long as Cincinnati is winless, you can count on them to try. Though it’s happened twice in the 21st century, no team wants to go winless. The Bengals are 0-10. Half of those losses have been by 7 points or less though.  Pittsburgh is coming off the tumultuous game with Cleveland that ended with that ugly brawl. The Steelers also lost the game 21-7. There were players that took some blows that weren’t from Myles Garrett. Center Pouncey, RB Conner and WR Smith-Schuster will among those watching this one from the sidelines. The Steelers are averaging only 13.5 points/game on the road, making them an ugly favorite here. Cincinnati will stay motivated until they win, but this is a game they REALLY want. They’ve lost nine straight times to the Steelers. They’ve lost 12 games in a row period, but are 6-6 ATS in that time.  The Bengals average 17.5 points at home. That’s more than the Steelers do on the road. Take the points. Play on CINCINNATI

AAA

This is an 8* on the OVER 

As long as Cincinnati is winless, you can count on them to try. Though it’s happened twice in the 21st century, no team wants to go winless. The Bengals are 0-10. Half of those losses have been by 7 points or less though.  Pittsburgh is coming off the tumultuous game with Cleveland that ended with that ugly brawl. The Steelers also lost the game 21-7. There were players that took some blows that weren’t from Myles Garrett. Center Pouncey, RB Conner and WR Smith-Schuster will among those watching this one from the sidelines. The Steelers are averaging only 13.5 points/game on the road, making them an ugly favorite here. But the Bengals actually average 17.5 points at home. This is a very low total, which isn’t surprising, but the public pounding the total down opens up an opportunity. It may seem odd to take the dog and the Over in the same matchup, but it’s the combo we like. Play OVER Pittsburgh-Cincinnati

AAA

This is an 8* play on OVER

Another Over we like. A Washington game finally went Over last week, but they were on the wrong side of a 34-17 final score. It stopped a six-game Under streak. On the bright side, it was the most points the Redskins scored in a game in almost a month. They haven’t topped 17 since Week 2. But rookie Dwayne Haskins is now the starting QB. This will be the weakest defense Haskins has faced in his pro career. Detroit gives up 412.7 yards per game as well as 27.2 points. Only once in the last five games have they allowed less than 26 points. Four of those games have gone Over. So Washington should have ample opportunity to score this week. Still no Matt Stafford for the Lions. But seeing as the Redskins just gave up 34 points to the Jets that shouldn’t be a problem. Play OVER Detroit-Washington

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

So Tampa Bay is on an eight-game Over streak. Some of the games have gone Over by a lot. But recently, the line between Over and Under has been a lot thinner. Last week’s Over with New Orleans was a 34-17 game with a 50-point total. It was a late pick-6 that sent things Over. Painful loss for us. Part of the reason we’re going to try the Under again this week is the defensive resurgence of the Falcons. The last two games have seen Atlanta hold the Saints and Panthers to just 12 combined points.The last four Falcons games have gone Under as well. While Atlanta’s defense has improved the last two games, their offense may be set for a decline. Injuries are starting to pile up as both RB Freeman and TE Hooper will miss this game. For what it’s worth, the Bucs defense has allowed the second fewest rush yards. Atlanta’s defense hasn’t allowed a TD since before the bye. They got a special teams TD last week, which probably isn’t happening again. These are two of the least efficient offenses in the red zone. Play UNDER Tampa Bay-Atlanta

AAA

This is a 10* on HAWAII 

There's certainly a lot on the line here. The winner of this late night affair wins the Mountain West Conference's West Division. Lucky for Hawaii that they get the game at home where they have a distinct advantage. San Diego State may be 5-0 on the road, but this is the toughest trip in the conference. Hawaii could only manage a 21-7 win over a bad UNLV team last week. But the Warriors apparently didn't take the Rebels very seriously. QB Cole McDonald, who has thrown for over 3000 yards this season, didn't even start. The coaching staff wanted to evaluate redshirt freshman QB Chevan Cordeiro and let him play the first quarter.  We had the Under in that game and loved seeing Cordeiro throw two interceptions and fail to direct a single scoring drive. Once McDonald came in though, Hawaii quickly seized control of the game. This game likely comes down to Hawaii's offense vs. SDSU's defense. Hawaii is averaging 36.2 points and over 500 yards in home games. The Aztecs are giving up less than 14 points and 300 yards.  Hawaii's defense isn't great, but it also allowed only seven points last week. San Diego State has only three games where they scored more than 25 points. If Hawaii gets going like normal, then the Aztecs simply won't be able to keep pace. Play on HAWAII 

AAA

This is a 10* on the OVER

After treating us as our Game of the Month play on Thursday (beat Winnipeg 5-3), we thought we'd call on Dallas again, this time for our top Total of the Week. The Stars have simply been on fire of late. They've gone 12-1-1 the last 14 games and won five straight. In this five game run, the last four have also gone Over. Dallas is averaging 4.6 goals its last five games and has scored at least four in 8 of the last 14. Saturday's opponent is Chicago, a team that was scoring quite a bit during a recent four-game win streak. The Blackhawks totaled 21 goals in those four games, but have since dropped two in a row. In both losses, they allowed four goals. One reason Dallas should be licking its chops here is that Chicago gives up lots of shots. The number of shots is quite staggering. 36.8 per game for the year. 39.2 on the road. 41.7 in division games. The Stars will take advantage of that, but don't be surprised if they give up a few. The Over is 3-1-1 the last five meetings. Play OVER Chicago-Dallas

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

Both the Heat and Sixers played Friday. Miami used a big 1st half to run away from Chicago, which was a win for us, while Philly pulled away late for a 114-105 win here at home over San Antonio. That was a loss on this end. The Heat game also went Over, but only due to the fact they let Chicago make a game of it late by giving up 41 points in the 4th quarter. Miami is a much better defensive team than that as they are tied for second in the league in efficiency.  Philly stayed Under against San Antonio despite each team shooting above 50%. We're convinced we won't be seeing those kind of FG%'s in this game as both teams will be a little tired. The last time Miami was in a back to back, they lost 90-85 to the Lakers. Last time in the situation for the Sixers, they were held to just 97 points.  With last night's win, the 76ers improved to 6-0 at home. They are giving up just under 100 points/game in those six wins. They've also won three in a row overall and have given up no more than 105 points in any of those three victories. Miami is also on a win streak, theirs currently at five games. Last night snapped a streak of four straight times shooting over 50%, however. Play UNDER Miami-Philadelphia

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This is an 8* play on ARKANSAS

Few will want to touch Arkansas as they are in midst of a lost season and facing the #1 team in the country Saturday night. But this is obviously a lot of points. LSU is good, but they've never had to lay more than 40 in SEC play. That tidbit caught our attention this week. While LSU appears on its way to the College Football Playoff, Arkansas has already fired its coach. Chad Morris didn't even make it two full seasons in Fayatteville. He was fired two weeks ago after the Razorbacks lost 45-19 at home to Western Kentucky. As abrupt as the firing was, it was not the least bit surprising. So now long-time assistant Barry Lunney Jr has been tapped as the interim. The Hogs had last week off, so Lunney and his staff have had two weeks to prepare for LSU. Two months wouldn't be enough for them win this game, but with no bowl game, this team is going to approach this game like it's the "Super Bowl." Expect an inspired effort by the underdog Saturday night. As for the other sideline, LSU coach Ed Orgeron has made it pretty clear that he's going to pull starters as early as possible. That will give Arkansas opportunities in the second half. While the Tigers offense is record-setting, the defense isn't that great. They gave up 614 yards in last week's 58-37 win against Mississippi. It was the fourth game this year that LSU allowed at least 450 yards and 37 points. Rutgers covered against Ohio State last week. Arkansas can do the same this week. Play on ARKANSAS

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This is a 10* on CAL

It's been a decade since California has won "The Big Game." Nine straight losses to Stanford have come by an average of 19 points/game. But we feel this will be the year for the crew from Berkeley. In recent years, Cal has definitely closed the gap on their rivals from Palo Alto. For this, the 122nd meeting, the Bears actually come in with the better won-loss record. It's been a long time since that was the case.  Now after a 4-0 start, the Bears have lost five of six. Like Stanford, they are incredibly banged up coming into this game. Both teams are starting backup quarterbacks. But on the defensive side of the ball, we like what Cal has to offer more.  We played against Stanford last week. They lost 49-22 at Washington State and had just six yards rushing. We warned you about the Cardinal's offensive ineptitude after they could only score 13 points on a Colorado defense that is probably the Pac 12's worst. While Stanford needs to win here and next week to be bowl eligible, we don't think there's any doubt as to which side will be more motivated Saturday down on "The Farm." This nine-year losing streak has to be eating at the Cal players and the senior class doesn't want to go out 0-4. Cal is 4-2 ATS as an underdog this year (three outright wins) and 10-5 ATS its last 15 road games. Stanford is 3-7 ATS in all games this season. Play on CALIFORNIA

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This is an 8* on SYRACUSE

One of the more inexplicable results we've seen in College Football this year was Syracuse beating Duke last week. The Orange had gone nearly two months without a win over a FBS foe. They were 8.5-point underdog on the road. Yet they ran wild for 286 yards on the ground and won 49-6. Just because we did not see that result coming does not mean it is without merit. Syracuse is a proud program still trying to make a bowl game. Last year's 10-win season was capped by a bowl victory. You can bet Dino Babers' team would like to get back there. Louisville is already bowl eligible, a major achievement after winning just two games in 2018. First year head coach Scott Satterfield has done a nice job here. But the Cardinals as a favorite is something we want no part of quite yet. This game marks the first time under Satterfield that Louisville is laying more than four points to a conference opponent. The Cardinals were -4 last week at NC State and won 34-20. But they also lost the total yardage battle in that game. They won the turnover battle though (+3) and also pulled off a fake field goal for a touchdown. It also helped that their opponents played without their top five cornerbacks! What a difference a year makes. Last year, Syracuse won 10 games and was considered the rising program in the ACC. Now its Louisville in that same position. We just aren't convinced that the favorite belongs in this price range - yet. Play on SYRACUSE

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This is an 8* on BOSTON COLLEGE

The list of unbeaten teams left in College Basketball has dwindled down to 53. Of those 53, only 22 have managed to get to 5-0. One of the bigger surprises on the list in DePaul. We believe the Blue Demons are set to experience their first loss. They lost to Boston College last year 65-62 as a 4.5-point home favorite. DePaul's most impressive win was their only previous road game, an upset of Iowa as 9.5 point underdogs. The Blue Demons shot an outrageous 61% that day. Really, they've been shooting the lights out all year. But eventually that's going to stop. Facing a B.C. team that has held its first five opponents to below 40% shooting seems like the logical time. Boston College also has an upset win on the road, theirs at the expense of South Florida where they were +6.5. The Eagles only loss was here at home to Belmont, 100-85, a game where they were actually a slight dog. They bounced back from that with a 72-68 win over Eastern Washington Wednesday night.While DePaul hasn't played in a week, they're bound to lose. The week off also may leave them rusty. They are 3-7 ATS the L10 times they've played with three or more days rest. B.C. already has beaten not just USF but also Wake Forest. Play on BOSTON COLLEGE

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This is an 8* play on HOUSTON

Houston saw it's eight-game win streak come to an end Wednesday night in Denver. Notable is that they'd also covered the spread in all eight games. But the Nuggets were able to hold them to a season low 95 points and James Harden to just 27. The Clippers now have Paul George and Kawhi Leonard playing together. The first game with both on the court was a 107-104 win over Boston. The game went to overtime as LA won for the second time this week by three points or less. The Rockets will not be an underdog many times this season. Considering they are the highest scoring team in the league, it's worth taking them when they are. As we just mentioned, the Clippers two wins this week have both been close (total of 5 points). These teams already went against each other once this year. Houston won 102-93 at home. That was nine days ago. The big difference here is tonight's game being in LA. The Clippers are 9-1 at home, but only 1-4 on the road. Still we don't think they should be this big of favorites. The Clippers are only shooting 43.9% from the field here at Staples Center. Play on HOUSTON

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This is a 10* on the OVER

The annual "Border War" between Colorado State and Wyoming is renewed Friday night. Despite being in different states, the schools are just 65 miles apart. Wyoming is CSU's most common opponent with Rams holding 58-47-5 all-time series edge. But the Cowboys have won three years in a row, including 34-21 in Ft. Collins last season. Colorado State comes into Friday needing to win its last two games to get bowl eligible. That's probably not going to happen as next week they face Boise State, whom they've never beaten. But that doesn't mean we shouldn't be expecting some fireworks out of the Rams this week. Last Saturday night at Air Force, Colorado State had an early 14-0 lead. But they couldn't hold on and ended up not even covering due to a late pick-six that made the final score 34-21 in Air Force's favor. It was the fewest points scored by the Rams since facing the tough defense of San Diego State. Turnovers were also costly for Wyoming last week as they had four of them in a 26-21 loss at Utah State. The good news for the Cowboys is this game is at home where they are 5-0 and averaging 33 points.   Wyoming lost its starting QB (Sean Chambers) a few weeks ago and has a pretty stout defense. That may lead some to believe that Under is the correct call here. But you can look for the Cowboys to have plenty of success running the ball in this game. CSU gives up 206.7 rush yards per game. Wyoming averages 220 rush yards per game. Both teams will find ways to score here. Play OVER Colorado State-Wyoming

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This is an 8* on SAN ANTONIO

San Antonio is a league worst 2-12-1 ATS. But at some point that record has to improve. With the team struggling, expect them to be an underdog on a pretty regular basis moving forward. That sounds pretty simplistic, but they've only been a dog four times so far. The Spurs are an underdog tonight in Philadelphia. The Sixers also haven't exactly been tearing it up for bettors as they are just 1-5 ATS their previous six games. Two nights ago, they beat the Knicks by only five points. They trailed in that game by as much as 17. Not only has San Antonio not been covering, they haven't been winning either. They bring a 7-game losing streak to the City of Brotherly Love. Most of the losses have been close though. This is the front end of a back to back for both teams. Philly is 1-5 ATS this year against teams that have losing records. San Antonio is more desperate and we should see the underdog role suit them well when it comes to ATS results. Play on SAN ANTONIO

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This is an 8* play on MIAMI

Miami has quietly been one of the better teams in the league this year. They are 10-3 while outscoring teams by 8.5 points per game. The only teams with a better point differential this year are the Lakers and Bucks. Winners of four in a row, the Heat rank 3rd in defensive efficiency. Chicago can't measure up to any of those numbers, although they did just win a game by 20 points. But it was against the Pistons, who have really been struggling of late. Miami also recently beat Detroit as part of its four-game run. The Heat have shot better than every other team in the league thus far, making 48.2% from the field. Don't expect the Bulls to play the same kind of defense here that they did vs. the Pistons. That was only the second time they've held an opponent under 100 points. Miami has won 8 of its last 10 and all eight wins have come by at least nine points. They are 9-2 ATS overall this season and 6-0 as a favorite! Play on MIAMI

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