This is a 10* on HOUSTON

This game is on ESPN. Unfortunately, we won’t be seeing Luka Doncic as the Mavs superstar re-injured his ankle in practice Thursday. The same ankle was sprained earlier in the year causing Doncic to miss four games. He’s reportedly going to miss at least the next two. Both Dallas and Houston enter this game at 29-18, tied for 5th in the Western Conference. But with Doncic out, it’s pretty clear which team is going to be better and we’ll look to take full advantage. The Rockets have lost six of nine and just split four games on the road. They’re off a loss in Portland, 125-112 as a 5-point favorite. So look for them to come out highly motivated in their return home against a wounded rival. They are 6-2 ATS off a double digit loss this season. Dallas was just buried, at home, by Phoenix and that was with Doncic in the lineup. We faded the Mavs there as they lost for a third time in the last five games and gave up a season-high 133 points. Houston also has revenge here for a 14-point loss earlier in the year when Doncic went for 41 points. He won’t be there tonight so look for superstars James Harden and Russell Westbrook to carry the Rockets to a big victory. Play on HOUSTON

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This is an 8* on PITTSBURGH

This is technically the back half of a home and home between the NHL’s two Keystone State teams. But the first half was played ten days ago, before the All Star Break. The Flyers were 3-0 winners at home, giving them 60 points, but that’s only good enough for sixth place in a tight Metropolitan Division race. The Penguins have 67 points, which has them in second and a safe bet to make the playoffs. To us, Pittsburgh is a clear top four team in the Eastern Conference and they should get payback tonight. After scoring 1 goal or less in their previous game, the Penguins have gone 8-2 SU the next time out. This game being in Pittsburgh really affects how we handicap it. The Pens are 18-5-3 in home games and average 3.5 goals while giving up just 2.5. The Flyers aren’t good road team as they average only 2.8 goals while giving up 3.8, leaving them with a 10-13-2 mark. Honestly, being outscored by a full goal per game, you’d think they’d have a worse road record. This is a game where we expect the home team to dominate. Play on PITTSBURGH

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This is a 10* on COLUMBIA

Yale is the class of the Ivy League this year, but with that comes the weight of expectations and we’re likely to see them be overpriced on a game by game basis. The Bulldogs opened Ivy League play by sweeping a home and home with Brown. In between those two wins, they beat Howard 89-75 on the road. But Columbia won’t be intimidated tonight. They won here last season, as a 12.5-point underdog, 83-75. The Lions split a home and home with Cornell to open their Ivy League schedule. There was no game in between for them. Both teams have been off for at least six days coming into tonight. Yale lost its only previous game this year when they had that much rest and could be rusty tonight. Columbia is 3-1 when playing with 5 or 6 days rest this season. Pulling the outright upset at Yale for the second straight year may not seem likely, but Columbia staying within the number certainly does. This is only the 4th time Yale has been a favorite of 12.5 or more points the last three seasons. They are 1-2 ATS the previous three instances. Play on COLUMBIA

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This is a 10* on DENVER

Bad spot here for Utah as they lost last night in San Antonio and now head to Denver where they’ll have to not only deal with the elevation but also a Nuggets team that sports the same 32-15 SU record. Denver, like Utah, lost its last game. But that was in Memphis. When playing at home, the Nuggets are 18-6 and holding teams to 103.9 points/game. Utah hasn’t had many back to backs this year (only four prior to this one). The last two games have seen the Jazz fall as favorites. Not only were they -5 at San Antonio, but they were -14.5 vs. Houston as the Rockets won that game without James Harden and Russell Westbrook. A third game in four nights, with no rest, is going to be too much to overcome here as Denver is every bit as motivated off their loss. While this is the first time facing the Jazz, he Nuggets record in division games this year is 6-0 (straight up). Play on DENVER

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This is a 10* on EASTERN KENTUCKY

Eastern Kentucky has put together a three-game win streak and what’s most impressive about it is that all three wins were on the road. Two were as underdogs of 7.5 points or more and the Colonels scored 80 or more in all three. They might be just 9-12 overall, but they have a 6-2 record vs. the Ohio Valley Conference as they’re a solid third, trailing only the two unbeaten teams - Murray State and Austin Peay. Tonight EKU takes its turn as a favorite facing a bad Tennessee-Martin team that is near the bottom of the OVC with a 2-6 record. The Skyhawks are giving up a ton of points this year, 83.7 per game to be exact, and it only gets worse when they are on the road. They picked up a rare win Saturday, beating SIU-Edwardsville 79-76, but at no point this season have the Skyhawks been able to win two in a row. This is a shockingly low number to lay to a bad team like Tenn-Martin. Play on EASTERN KENTUCKY

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This is a 10* on UNDER

Buffalo just gave up five goals in a loss to Ottawa on Tuesday and now must deal with the loss of #1 netminder Linus Ullmark as they are set to host Montreal in a battle of desperate Atlantic Division teams. Both the Sabres and Canadiens have 51 points. They also share the distinction of being 0-1 since the All Star Break. Montreal lost a home game, 4-2 to Washington. No matter who gets the call in goal for tonight, we expect both teams to be stingier than they were last time we saw them. Buffalo had allowed a total of just six goals in its last four games before the break. Interestingly, none of the five goals they allowed to Ottawa were at even strength. Three came when they were a man down, then they allowed one when on the power play themselves and the final tally came on an empty net. The Under is 5-1-1 in Montreal’s last seven games and they are 23-8-2 Under in the month of January the last three seasons. Play UNDER Montreal-Buffalo

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This is a 10* on UNDER

IUPUI and Cleveland State are at the bottom of the Horizon League. IUPUI’s 89-85 win against Oakland on Saturday required overtime and was just their second conference win of the year. The only Horizon League game the Jaguars were favored to win, they lost, and that was against Cleveland State on December 30th. The Vikings won that game 82-80 on a buzzer beater, but look for the rematch to feature a lot less scoring. The Under is 5-0-1 in Cleveland State’s past six games and they just held Milwaukee to 53 points in a win Saturday. The Under is also 6-0 this season for them when the total is 140 to 149.5. This is also an offensively challenged team that averages only 63.4 PPG. In that December 30th meeting, both sides shot north of 50 percent, something we don’t see taking place this time around. Play UNDER IUPUI-Cleveland State

AAA

This is a 10* on SAN JOSE

We said San Jose was in quite the hole coming out of the All Star Break as there is a lot of ground to make up if they are to get back into serious playoff contention. But Monday’s 4-2 win against Anaheim was the first step in the right direction. We backed them Monday and will do so again tonight vs. Vancouver. While the Canucks currently lead the Pacific Division, it’s a tenuous lead at best. They have 10 fewer points than every other division leader across the league. Something we mentioned in backing the Sharks Monday is that they haven’t played too many home games recently. But when they have, they’ve made the most of it. They’re a perfect 3-0 at “The Tank” in 2020. Vancouver comes in riding a 3-game win streak, but all three wins were at home. On a recent road trip, they finished just 2-3. They’ve lost six of the last seven times they’ve come to San Jose. Home ice matters! Play on SAN JOSE

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This is a 10* on SAN JOSE ST

San Jose State won its last game, 90-81 over Air Force, which will give it some much needed confidence going into tonight where they are big underdogs at Boise State. The host Broncos won their only game last week, 87-53 at Fresno State. But before that, they hadn’t won a game by more than 11 points since before 2020 began. So we’re going to fade here as this looks to be an inflated line. San Jose State has definitely struggled here in Boise in the past, including a 48-point loss last year. That was the 16th straight loss here and the Spartans are just 3-13 ATS in those games. But this time will be different as this team comes in motivated and ready to play. Boise State is just 1-3 ATS off its conference wins this season. Play on SAN JOSE STATE

This is a 10* on NEW YORK

The Knicks 5-game ATS win streak came to an end last night in Charlotte as they lost to the Hornets by a score of 97-92. They blew a 13-point lead. We thought the game would end up being a lot higher scoring and the reason it wasn’t is NY couldn’t buy a basket. That was a stark contrast to their last time playing at home when they shot 53.3% in a 110-97 win over Brooklyn. The Grizzlies head to Madison Square Garden this evening looking to win a fourth straight game and for the 11th time in 13 games. Memphis also played yesterday as they beat Denver 104-96, thanks to some real sharp shooting. They finished the game at 56.1%, their third game in a row at above 52% (3-0 ATS). Don’t think they’ll be able to sustain that level of shooting. There’s also some pressure on Memphis here as a win would get them to .500, something they haven’t been this late in a season in several years. The Grizzlies have not fared well in non-conference games the last few seasons, going 20-56 straight up and 27-47 against the spread. This is a team that’s only been favored in 12 games all season! Play on NEW YORK

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This is a 10* on PHOENIX

Dallas was a winner last night as they went into Oklahoma City and prevailed 107-97. That was no small feat as the Thunder came into the game on a 5-0 SU/ATS run. Here the Mavs get to play host to a Phoenix team that is like Dallas in the sense that each probably feels they should have a better won-loss record. Though they’ve lost three of the last four games, two of them were by five points or less. This is a quick 24-hour turnaround for the Mavericks and they just played three tough road games (Utah, Portland, OKC). Winning here by any kind of substantial margin seems like a difficult proposition. Phoenix is 10-11 straight up on the road and 13-8 against the spread. They’ve won at Boston and San Antonio already this month. Grab the points. Play on PHOENIX

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This is a 8* on MIAMI

Miami is having a pretty dreadful season. Back to back road games with Duke and North Carolina last week may have been the nadir. They lost those two games by a combined 55 points. That makes it four straight losses for the Hurricanes and six losses in the last seven games. But during that time they’ve played Duke twice, not to mention Louisville and Florida State. They’ve arguably faced the toughest schedule of any ACC team. Virginia Tech has avoided all those teams and thus is a surprising 5-4 in conference play. But the Hokies did just lose as a 4.5-point favorite at Boston College Saturday. They also got humiliated down the road in Virginia last month, losing 65-39. So they aren’t to be trusted on the road. We’ll fade here as this line screams “upset.”  Miami can score at home (76.7 PPG), something they struggle to do on the road. Play on MIAMI FL

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This is a 10* on the UNDER

The Senators suffered a pretty painful loss last night, losing 4-3 in a shootout to New Jersey. None of Ottawa’s goals came at even strength as one was via the power play and two came shorthanded. Scoring twice when down a man is exceedingly rare for one game, so don’t look for that to happen again anytime soon. The Senators aren’t a very high scoring team to begin with as they only average 2.3 goals per game on the road. Buffalo will begin its second half tonight looking to bounce back from a 2-1 defeat to Nashville in their last game. The Sabres are 7-2 Under when off a game where they scored 1 or 0 goals. On the flip side, they have allowed just six goals in the last four games. So it should be a low-scoring affair tonight in upstate NY. Both previous meetings this season have stayed Under the total. Play UNDER Ottawa-Buffalo

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This is a 10* on OVER

The Knicks have inexplicably caught fire at the betting window, covering five straight games with the most recent being a 110-97 SU win over Brooklyn. During the 5-game ATS win streak, they’ve allowed 100 points or less four different times. The Under is 6-1 their last seven games. Here they’ll travel to Charlotte to face a Hornets team that is 5-1 Under its last six games. Speaking of travel, the Hornets are back from Paris where they lost 116-103 to Milwaukee. Here in the States, they’ve been held below 100 four of the last five games. By the way, they’re also on an eight-game losing streak and 2-14 their last 16 games. Despite both teams recent rash of low-scoring affairs, we look for this one to go Over the total. Over the course of the season, neither team has played consistently good defense. The Over is 18-6-2 the previous 26 meetings and 4-1 the last five times the Knicks have been a road underdog. The Hornets are 14-4 Over the last 18 games vs. teams that have losing records. Play OVER NY-Charlotte

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This is a 10* on CLEMSON 

Given the relative lack of depth we’re seeing in the ACC, someone was bound to overachieve. One of the bigger beneficiaries of that lack of depth seems to be Syracuse. The Orange have won their last five games to get to 6-3 in league play. They’ve also covered the spread in all five wins, which includes a pair of 2-point road victories. Jim Boeheim’s crew is back on the road this evening, visiting Clemson, who just lost to Louisville to fall to 4-5 SU in ACC play. This game would seem to be more important to the Tigers. One thing we like is Clemson holds visiting teams to an average of just 61.6 points/game. Syracuse allows 75.6 points/game on the road. Unlike Clemson, the ‘Cuse has somewhat skirted the ACC’s top teams. No Duke, Louisville or Florida State. They were picked to finish 8th for a reason. The win streak ends tonight in Death Valley. Play on CLEMSON

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This is a 9* on SAN JOSE 

It wasn’t a great first half of the season for either of these Pacific Division teams and it’ll take one heck of a run for either to get back into serious playoff contention. Considering what a down year it’s been in the Pacific (no one running away), both teams probably went into the All-Star Break scratching their heads a little bit. Anaheim did win a pair of road games, on back to back nights, against Nashville and Carolina before the Break hit while San Jose has lost three straight. All three Sharks losses were on the road though. Since the calendar turned to 2020, the Sharks have gotten to play only two home games and won them both - beating Columbus and Dallas - both of whom are red hot teams right now. So getting the Ducks at home should lead to a nice start to the second half for San Jose. They are 10-4 vs. Anaheim the last three seasons and we don’t think those two Ducks road victories before the All Star Break should be taken too seriously. This is a team that is 8-15-2 SU on the road and being outscored by a full goal per game. Play on SAN JOSE

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This is a 10* on EASTERN WASHINGTON

Eastern Washington needed OT to prevail on Saturday, 81-78 over Southern Utah. The win ensured the Eagles would remain in a second place tie in the Big Sky with a 5-2 conference record. Tonight they host the team that they are tied with, Northern Colorado. These two are two back of first place Montana (7-2) in the win column, so whomever wins here is only a half game back. We believe that team will be EWU as they are averaging an incredible 93.7 points at home where they own a 7-1 (straight up) record. The Eagles are one of the highest scoring teams in the entire country, so it’s going to be interesting to see how they do against one of the conference’s better defensive teams. Northern Colorado only gives up 60.8 points/game, but we don’t like this spot for them as it’s the second road game in three days. The Bears beat Idaho handily on Saturday, 74-53 as an 8.5-point favorite. But be aware that before that win they’d lost outright as a 10.5-point favorite at home to Northern Arizona. This is the first time all year that Northern Colorado has this quick of a turnaround between road games. Play on E WASHINGTON

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This is a 10* on CLEVELAND

The Cavs lost their seventh straight game Saturday night as a long season seemingly gets even longer. But it’s pretty crazy to think that Detroit has only five more wins on the year than Cleveland does. Seeing this number attached to the Pistons immediately caught our eye as there’s no real reason for them to be this big of a favorite. Earlier in the month, these Central Division foes played a couple of tight games - both decided by three points or less - with the road team going 2-0. The Pistons are off a couple of double digit losses here at home - to Memphis and Brooklyn - so again, not sure why anyone would want to lay this many points with them right now. The Pistons have lost six of their last nine overall and are just 9-15 straight up and against the spread on the road. They are 1-5 ATS L6 as a favorite including 0 for 4 when laying more than two points. They didn’t cover either game vs. the Cavs earlier in the month. Play on CLEVELAND

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This is a 10* on SAN ANTONIO 

Toronto has won six straight games, pulling them into a tie with Miami for 2nd place in the Eastern Conference. However, the Raptors did not cover last time out as we said they would not. We took the points with the Knicks and tonight is a far more daunting road trip into San Antonio. While the Spurs are not as strong as they’ve usually been for Greg Popovich, this is a team that has won outright each of the last three times it has been getting points. They did lose, as a favorite, Friday at home to Phoenix. That game saw us go against SA, making us winners on each of these team’s last game. The Spurs won in Toronto 105-104 back on January 12th as a 4.5-point underdog. The Raptors are a bit healthier now than they were back then, but not as well rested, so this pointspread doesn’t make much sense to us. Toronto was off three days rest when they hosted the Spurs two weeks ago. Now they’re playing a second road game in three days. The Spurs have covered the last five games vs. the Raptors. Play on SAN ANTONIO

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This is a 10* on UNLV

The only team in the country still undefeated is San Diego State, who is 20-0 and ranked #4 in the country. But in the last week we’ve seen them fail to cover the number in home games against Nevada and Wyoming. They’ve covered all six road games this year but today is going to be one of the more challenging ones as they visit Las Vegas. We don’t believe the Aztecs are running the table so an eventual loss is inevitable. UNLV is holding visiting teams to 40.4% shooting and 65.5 PPG. The Runnin’ Rebels lost at Nevada earlier this week, thanks to a poor defensive effort. But they are certainly going to be “up” for this game, which figures to be the biggest home date of the conference schedule. That loss to Nevada was just the second in nine games for the Rebels and they beat Utah State (MWC’s 2nd best team) by 17 here at the Thomas & Mack Center back on New Year’s Day. UNLV is now the second place in the conference and the most motivating factor of all is they’ve lost 14 straight home games to SDSU. We believe they are capable of pulling the upset here today. UNLV has at least covered off four of their last five losses. Play on UNLV

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This is an 8* on TULSA

Tulsa will technically be gunning for a third straight upset on Sunday. They were 1.5 point underdogs when they won 67-54 at Tulane last Saturday. Then came the big one as they stunned Memphis 80-40 on Wednesday. They were three-point underdogs at home for that one, which was basically over by halftime as the Golden Hurricane led 40-17. It was their largest margin of victory EVER over a ranked team as they shot 50% against the team that came in leading the country in field goal percentage defense (35%). Tulsa also held Memphis to 28.6% shooting including 2 of 21 on three-point attempts! Here they are up against a far weaker opponent in UConn, who has lost five of six. The only win during that stretch was by six points. The Huskies are off back to back road losses where they were held under 60 points. Connecticut is 3-12 ATS after being held to 60 points or fewer. That includes an 0-4 record this season. Tulsa is 6-3 ATS as a dog this year, winning outright five times. With the way these teams are trending, we’ll grab the points. Play on TULSA

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This is a 10* on the OVER

It’s been a pretty disappointing season for Utah State. Like everyone else in the Mountain West, they are left staring up at San Diego State, the only team in the country still undefeated. The MWC had belonged to Utah State the last couple seasons, but they’ve been upset four different times in 2019-20, leaving them with a 15-6 overall record. But at home the Aggies are still pretty lethal. They average 86.4 points/game in Logan where they’ve lost only one time and that was to San Diego State. Scoring on Colorado State shouldn’t prove too difficult tonight, but defending the Rams is a whole different matter. CSU has won five straight games and averaged 86.4 points/game in doing so. They just dropped 86 on Fresno State Wednesday night. The two times these schools met last year, the final scores were 87-72 and 100-96 (both Utah State wins). This is going to be another track meet. Play OVER Colorado State-Utah State

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This is a 10* on OVER

The Lakers head to Philadelphia having gone 12-2 the last 14 games. A road trip that began last Saturday in Houston wraps up tonight against a team that has won 20 of its 22 home games. But the Sixers are coming off a loss here as they could only score 95 points at Toronto Wednesday night. They should score a lot more tonight as they average 111.4 points/game at home and the Over is 8-3 when they are off an ATS loss. The Over is also 7-2 their last nine home games. Of course, the Sixers also figure to be challenged defensively in this game. The Lakers are 7-1 Over their last eight games overall and 6-1 Over their last seven road games. The Over is also 6-0 the last six times LA has been off a win. Look for a high-scoring affair tonight on ABC. Play OVER Lakers-Sixers

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This is a 10* on CLEVELAND

Since New Year’s Eve, Cleveland is just 2-11. Tonight at home, they hope the “third time will be the charm.” This week has seen them lose twice at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse, to the Knicks and Wizards, teams that are well below .500. They were even favored (-2.5) against Washington Thursday, but lost 124-112 due to lack of defense. But tonight looks like a good time to take a flier on the Cavs. They are getting Chicago, who is fresh off a terrible showing last night at home vs. Sacramento. The Bulls lost that one 98-81 as it was the third time in the past five games they failed to score 100 points. The Bulls aren’t a great offensive team to begin with and shot just 39% last night. They had only 12 points in the fourth quarter vs. the Kings as they played for the first time without Lori Markkanen. For a Cleveland team that doesn’t win much, this is one of their more “winnable” games in some time and will be treated as such. Play on CLEVELAND

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This is a 10* on OREGON STATE

Since turning in arguably their best performance of the season, that being an 82-65 beatdown of Arizona here in Corvallis, Oregon State has lost three in a row. Two of those losses came on the road, but Thursday’s 62-58 setback to UCLA did not. But we can’t see the Beavers losing two straight home games, even if USC is 5-1 ATS in Pac 12 play. This is an absolutely terrible situation for the Trojans. Not only is it a second road game in three nights, which is always problematic, but Thursday saw them come up short in a double overtime affair with #12 Oregon. Getting over that kind of defeat is tough and not something most teams can do within a 48 hour turnaround.  USC is only shooting 40.5% in conference play while Oregon State averages 78.5 PPG at home. Play on OREGON STATE

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This is an 8* on NORTH CAROLINA

What coach Roy Williams already called “not a very gifted team” has become far worse than that as North Carolina is now 8-10 and on a 5 game losing streak. They just covered for the first time in 2020 in Wednesday’s 79-77 loss at Virginia Tech. Those around the program are saying the problems are far deeper than just Cole Anthony getting hurt. Regardless we’ll back the Tar Heels on Saturday as they play host to a Miami team that just got blown out by 30 at Duke. UNC is no Duke but they don’t have to be with a pointspread of this size. Miami has lost five of its last six games, putting them ahead of only … North Carolina in the standings. Four of those five Miami losses have been by double digits. They’ve allowed 80 or more points in each of the last three games. As bad as UNC has been so far, this is a game they should … and will win handily. Play on NORTH CAROLINA

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This is an 8* on BUTLER

Butler looks to get back on track here as all of a sudden they’ve dropped three in a row. They were 15-1 with the only loss coming by 1 point to current #1 Baylor. But the competition is fierce here in the Big East and the Bulldogs have already lost to the two teams that will be their main competition. That would be Seton Hall and Villanova. We were on ‘Nova against Butler on Tuesday and that was a 76-61 game the Bulldogs were never really in. Thankfully, tonight the schedule lessens up with a visit by Marquette. The Golden Eagles just aren’t as good as Seton Hall or Villanova, even though they do hold a win over the latter. They are also 1-5 straight up and against the spread their last six visits to historic Hinkle Fieldhouse. Can’t see Butler losing again. They give up 54.1 points/game at home. With this not being a large spread, we’ll lay it. Play on BUTLER

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This is a 10* on PHOENIX

More than half of the games have already been played this NBA season and it very much looks like the top seven in the Western Conference have really solidified themselves. What order those seven teams finish in is still to be determined as is who is going to get the #8 spot. The Suns and Spurs are both contenders (for the #8 spot) and meet Friday in the Alamo. San Antonio, who hasn’t missed the playoffs since the late 1990’s, currently has the position after knocking off New Orleans in Zion Williamson’s debut Wednesday. Phoenix has the second longest active playoff drought in the league (2010) but has the feel of an improved team this year. Despite being eight games below .500, the Suns are very much a competitive team. They just faced the Spurs earlier in the week, at home, and lost by two points. So this is a revenge game and they are 18-9 ATS the L27 games in that situation. After losing by two to the Spurs Monday, it was a far worse showing vs. Indiana on Wednesday. But this is a team that’s gone 4-2 SU its last six on the road including an upset over Boston. While the Spurs are on a three-game win streak, all three wins have been by five points or less. Play on PHOENIX

AAA

This is an 8* on NEW YORK

Despite losing the Finals MVP (Kawhi Leonard) to the Clippers and a myriad of holdovers to various injuries, the Raptors have persevered into 2020 with the third best record in the Eastern Conference. They’re as healthy now as they’ve been all season and that’s resulted in a five-game win streak where they’ve averaged 124.2 points/game. But tonight’s game is far trickier than its looks with the Knicks having covered three straight. New York played both Philadelphia and the Lakers tough here at home, losing those games by only three and eight points. In between, they went to Cleveland and picked up a 20-point victory. This is a pretty decent number that Toronto is laying here. Though they’ve yet to drop a game as a road favorite this season (9-0 straight up), they just failed to cover in Atlanta as 8.5-point favorites (won by 5) and that’s the only time they’ve been asked to lay more in a road game than what they are laying for this one.  Play on NEW YORK

AAA

This is a 10* on SIENA

The jumbled mess that is the MAAC figures to untangle itself over the next month. One team to keep an eye on is Siena. Though only 3-4 in conference action, the Saints have been favored in all but one game -- a loss at Rider. Virtually every game has been close with four of the seven games decided by three points or fewer. A three-game road trip ended with a 72-71 loss at Niagara on Sunday, but Siena gets a reprieve here in the form of a home date with Marist, who is likely the MAAC’s worst team. The Red Foxes are 4-13 overall and that’s after going 2-0 last week with home victories over Iona and Manhattan. Siena figures to put an end to that win streak tonight as they are a perfect 7-0 at home and averaging 76.9 points/game. Marist averaged 79 points in its two victories last week, but that number is misleading as the 75-73 win over Manhattan went to overtime. On the season, the Red Foxes are averaging a paltry 55.6 points/game on the road. Expect this game to quickly turn into a blowout. 10* SIENA

AAA

This is a 10* on BROOKLYN

From 12/28 to 1/13, the Lakers have won nine in a row. Now they’ve lost two of the last four games. They played last night, and won, but it was in unimpressive fashion beating the Knicks 100-92. That was on the heels of a humiliating 139-107 loss in Boston Monday. The road trip continues Thursday in Brooklyn where LA will be solidly favored. This is not only because the Lakers have the best record in the Western Conference but also because the Nets have been struggling badly. It’s four straight losses for the Nets and they’ve failed to cover every time. A 2-11 record since Christmas isn’t scaring anybody. But with Kyrie Irving and Caris LeVert having returned to the lineup, the Nets can only be down for so long. This is a really bad spot for the Lakers, who are playing their third road game in four days. It’s been a brutal schedule of late for the Nets. However they have been off since Monday. By not covering last night, the Lakers are just 1-5 ATS their last six tries as road favorites. Play on BROOKLYN

AAA

This is a 10* on RICE

When UTEP and Rice meet - whether it be the football field or basketball court - the only thing on the line is usually pride. Both athletic departments should feel pretty ashamed. Here we are and the Conference USA rivals meet Thursday. UTEP is 3-7 straight up its last 10 games. They have covered only two of those. Rice is 1-7 straight up its last eight games. Here’s the thing though: UTEP is 0-7 on the road. In those games, they average just 62.3 points/game. For Rice, who is just 1-6 in conference play, this is one of their best shots at picking up a win. The Owls also are averaging 82.3 points/game at home. UTEP has just two conference wins. The Miners are just 13-30 ATS their last 43 Conference USA games. They just gave up a season-high point total (86) to Southern Miss last Saturday. The Miners should not be favored in this game. This is a price you probably won’t see the rest of the season if looking to fade UTEP on the road. Play on RICE

AAA

This is an 8* on NEW ORLEANS

This game was moved to 9:35 et so that it could be shown on ESPN. You may be wondering why that is considering it’s two teams with losing records.  Well, tonight will mark the debut of Zion Williamson for New Orleans. The top overall choice from last summer’s draft finally takes the court and it comes at a time when the Pelicans are playing their best basketball of the season. Since December 23rd, the team is 10-4 straight up and 12-1-1 ATS. They just won by 10 in Memphis, which is pretty significant seeing as the Grizzlies came in sporting the league’s longest active win streak at seven straight. The Pelicans scored 126 points and made 21 three-pointers. The Spurs don’t play great defense, so with Williamson in there and Jrue Holliday being back, look for the Pelicans to go off again. This will be a successful debut for the #1 draft pick. Play on NEW ORLEANS

AAA

This is an 8* on PHOENIX

Indiana did not handle the second leg of a back to back well, losing by 30 at Utah on Monday. They had just beaten Denver the previous night 115-107 in a come from behind effort. The Denver-Utah doubleshot is one of the hardest in the league. But still, the Pacers losing by 30 in the second game was rather discouraging. This isn’t a great road team as the WL record is just 11-11 SU and they’ve been outscored. Phoenix, despite a 9-15 record at home, actually has a positive point differential in those games. The Suns have made the leap to respectability this year and are 13-7 ATS as underdogs. Since Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton have played together, the team is 6-5 straight up. They did lose by two to San Antonio on Monday, but shot well in the game and almost won after being down by 20. Phoenix is a much better team than you think and worthy of a play here. Play on PHOENIX

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This is a 10* on DETROIT +1.5

It wasn’t that long ago that we cashed the Red Wings on the puck line. They lost that game (to the Penguins) by 1 goal, so it was a winner. Unfortunately for Detroit, the losses continue to mount as they’ve since fallen 4-1 to Florida and 6-3 to Colorado. It’s now five in a row and they are 12-34-4 for the season. While a little frightening as to just how uncompetitive they’ve been most of the year, this is another time we’ll back the Red Wings +1.5. Minnesota has lost five of seven, often times by large margins. They were just on the wrong end of a one-goal decision, 5-4 to Florida, which came right here in the Twin Cities. The Wild have given up more goals than they’ve scored this season, so they’re no safe bet. They’ve actually lost 8 of the 12 games they’ve played against teams with losing records. Play DETROIT +1.5 (PUCK LINE)

AAA

This is an 8* on the UNDER

The last five Sacramento games have all gone Over. The Kings have also lost all five games. Tonight they are in Detroit to play a Pistons team that hasn’t exactly been tearing it up lately either. The Pistons have just five wins in the last 18 games and most recently lost to struggling Washington 106-100. With two struggling teams facing each other here, we’re going to go with the Under. Yes, this flies in the face of the Kings recent results, but this is a high total for them. Their games only average 216.9 points total. Detroit is a little higher, but only at 219.6. The Pistons are missing a ton of key scorers from their lineup right now. Note that because of a trade made yesterday, the Kings could be short-handed for tonight’s game. Sunday’s loss to Miami would have stayed Under if not for overtime. Play UNDER Kings-Pistons

AAA

This is a 10* on DAVIDSON

St. Louis had a valiant effort Friday vs. Dayton, but ultimately lost to the Flyers 78-76 in overtime. They did cover the spread, but after leading the #7 ranked team in the country by eight at halftime and coming up short, there has to be a feeling of disappointment from the Billikens. Despite a 14-4 record, they are an underdog to 8-9 Davidson, which is telling. Before the loss to Dayton, St. Louis had been 4-0 straight up in games decided by five points or less. So, aside from Friday, luck mostly had been going their way. Davidson on the other hand has lost some close games. But the Wildcats were winners on Saturday, 72-64 at Fordham. As far as the respective won-loss records go, Davidson has played a harder schedule than St. Louis. They also average 83.8 points/game at home where they have won 29 of their last 33 games. Play on DAVIDSON

AAA

This is an 8* on WISCONSIN

Wisconsin should clobber Nebraska here. Nebraska is one of only two teams in the Big 10 that has no chance of making the NCAA Tournament. They’ve lost 8 of 11 and three in a row. This is a team that gives up an average of 78.6 points in road games. Wisconsin may not score a ton as is evident by the fact they have not gone over 60 points in any of their last three games. But they still won two of those, only losing the one to Michigan State on Friday. Other than that loss, the Badgers have been playing tremendous defense recently. Five of the last seven opponents have not gone over 57 points. They win by an average of 15 points/game in Madison where their only loss in nine tries came by a single point. Considering Nebraska just allowed 80 points in its last two losses, this should be a big offensive night of the Badgers. Combine that with the usual brand of defense and you get a blowout. Play on WISCONSIN

This is an 8* on the CLIPPERS

A lot of teams are competing for “second best” (behind the Lakers) in the Western Conference. These are two of them. The Clippers currently have that second position with a 30-13 record. They’ve won three straight coming into this game. Dallas has won four straight and has a slightly better point differential. But the Mavericks are only 5th in the West, 2.5 games back of the Clippers. Earlier this season, they lost by 15 at home to the Clippers. Both teams have recently been hampered by key absences. Kristaps Porzingis could return tonight for the Mavs after missing the last 10 games. Paul George likely will not be back for the Clippers. But we’re still on LA. They are 6-0 ATS on Tuesday nights this season. But perhaps more pertinent is the fact Dallas is just 3-7-1 ATS its previous 11 home games. We believe that - with or without George - the Clippers are the better team here. Play on LA CLIPPERS

AAA

This is a 10* on PITTSBURGH

Pittsburgh has surged into second place in the Metropolitan Division by going 7-2-1 in their last 10 games. They are now only four points back of Washington. They just exacted some revenge for one of their few recent losses, beating Boston 4-3 on Saturday. (They had previously lost in Boston on Thursday.) Now the Penguins head to a place where they’ve been pretty successful through the years. They are 6-1 their last seven games here in Philadelphia and also beat the Flyers 7-1 in Pittsburgh in the only prior meeting of this season. The Flyers have fallen into sixth place in the Metro, meaning they would not be a playoff team. While they may be good enough to climb back into the top four, they simply aren’t as good as Pittsburgh is. We will note the Flyers have a 16-4-4 record at home. But Pittsburgh has proven it can win here plus the Flyers are missing top goaltender Carter Hart. Play on PITTSBURGH

AAA

This is an 8* on BOSTON

Boston comes off a home and home split with Pittsburgh, the home team having won each game. It’s been one of the rougher overall stretches for the Bruins of late as they’ve lost six of the last 10, though they still have collected points in seven of the games by going 4-3-3 overall. They remain in 1st place in the Atlantic Division with 68 points. That lead would be even wider were it not for a head-scratching NINE home losses in either OT or a shootout. Incredibly, they are 0-7 in shootouts this season. Meanwhile, they’ve lost only two times at home in regulation all year. We believe this is a team ready to start dominating at home. As for Vegas, they’ve lost five of six and are set to play a fourth consecutive road game out East. The Golden Knights are 0-4 this season after playing their previous three games on the road. The only win they’ve had the last 17 days is over a struggling Ottawa team. After some really poor luck (weird to say about a division frontrunner) in the first half of this season, we don’t think Boston is going to lose many more games at home. They’ll definitely win this one. Play on BOSTON

AAA

This is a 10* on VILLANOVA

Villanova has been the standard bearer for the Big East since the conference realigned in 2013. They have the regular season title every year but one since then. But in 2020, they are joined at the top by both Seton Hall and Butler. The Wildcats will host Butler Tuesday. They come in as the higher ranked team due to the events of last week. They won both games while Butler lost both of theirs. So they’ve got the momentum. They also have the home court edge. Nova is 9-0 at home so far and giving up only 62.4 points/game here. At 14-3 SU overall, they are 12-1 when favored. This is a pretty small number. Butler just lost on the road - to DePaul. It was a 13-point loss. The Bulldogs turned it over 17 times and gave up a season high point total with DePaul scoring 79 and making 10 of 17 three-point attempts. Villanova comes in playing very well as they’ve won four straight. Their recent defensive play has been very good. They have won and covered four of the last five games against Butler. Play on VILLANOVA

AAA

This is a 10* on RICE

North Texas is humming along with a 5-1 Conference USA record. They’ve won five straight games, covering the spread in all of them. That gives them a 13-4 ATS record overall and they are 6-1 ATS as a favorite. But it’s a big spread Monday, larger than what the Mean Green are accustomed to laying. They escaped Louisiana Tech with a 51-50 win on Saturday, a game where they were a six-point underdog. They won at the buzzer and it was their first win in Ruston since 1952! Fading North Texas in this spot seems pretty straightforward as there’s a letdown factor after pulling an upset like that. With Rice, there’s no letdown as they have lost six of seven and are desperate to pick up a victory. The Owls probably won’t win this game, their third on the road in the last five days, but keeping it close is something we like them to do. They are 5-0 ATS this season after allowing 80 or more points in their last game. Play on RICE

This is a 10* on HOUSTON

This isn’t the first time that the Rockets have lost three in a row. But it does feel like a season low-point. Monday sees them hosting an Oklahoma City team that beat them on January 9th by 21 points. But that game was in Oklahoma City. While Houston has lost three in a row as favorites and two straight at home, we expect this is the spot where they get back on track. The Thunder are just 2-3 straight up and against the spread since beating the Rockets. This is a third game in four days for them. They’ve been a good bet as a road underdog, but the Thunder are statistically below average on the road. Expect a very motivated effort from the home side in this one. Play on HOUSTON

AAA

This is a 9* on COLORADO -1.5

Colorado hasn’t always had luck on their side this year, but they are a good team and should roll Monday against Detroit. After a four-game losing streak that included two overtime losses, the Avalanche didn’t need any luck in wins over San Jose (4-0) and St. Louis (5-3). The latter we were on and made it our Game of the Month. The Avs scored five goals on only 18 shots, three of them coming in a decisive second period. They’ve scored 33 more goals than what they’ve allowed this season. You might be surprised to hear that’s the best goal differential in the Western Conference and tied for third best in the entire NHL. Detroit, as you probably know, is the worst team in the league. They have a -85 goal differential and their 28 points are 13 fewer than every other team. A current four-game losing streak has seen the Red Wings get outscored 19-5. They’re coming off a 4-1 loss at home to Florida. Unfortunately, the news gets worse as the Wings are 4-22 when off a home loss by three or more goals. This will be an easy, multi-goal win by the home team. Play COLORADO -1.5

AAA

This is a 10* on DENVER

Denver is second in the Western Conference with a 29-12 SU record. They’ve come out ahead in five of the last six games, including each of the last three. They continue to be a strong home team as their record here in the Mile High City is 17-5 and they hold opponents to 103.1 PPG. Indiana, like most of the teams in the Eastern Conference, are strong at home but only so-so on the road. The Pacers have won four straight overall, but any of the last three could have been a loss. Now Denver did need OT to get by Golden State Thursday. But that was a road game. This seems like an awfully low number for the Nuggets to be laying on their home floor. We realize there are injuries that they are dealing with, but they still scored 134 points against the Warriors even without Murray, Milsap and Harris. Milsap could be back in the lineup tonight. Denver won 126-114 at Indiana earlier this month and is a deep team. Indiana is 6-14-1 ATS its last 21 road games vs. teams who have a home win percentage of better than .600. Play on DENVER

AAA

This is a 10* on CAL

Two struggling Pac 12 teams close out the week against one another. California won a couple home games last week, beating the Pac 12’s Washington contingent, but failed to “show up” in an ugly 88-56 loss at USC on Thursday. Going back, the Bears have lost 5 of 7 and 7 out of the last 10 games. All the wins were in Berkeley. They’re on the road tonight, but UCLA is struggling in its own right. The Bruins have lost three in a row and six of their last seven games. They also could not even muster 60 points in their last game as they fell to Stanford on Wednesday. UCLA is 1-7 ATS its last eight games, so the idea of laying this many points with them is not appetizing to say the least. The team’s only win since December 14th was by two points at Washington. We don’t see how you could lay the points in this one. Play on CALIFORNIA

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

Green Bay’s offense did next to nothing when it faced the San Francisco defense in the regular season. They were held to eight points, a pathetic 81 yards passing and just 2.8 yards per play. They’re bound to do better this time, but will the 49ers score 37 points again? Not likely. Since taking it on the chin from the 49ers, the Pack are an undefeated 6-0 and allowing just 15.7 points/game. San Francisco is giving up only 18.8 points/game (5th), GB isn’t far behind as it gives up just 19.8 points/game (9th). The Under is 5-1 the last six times GB has been an underdog. As it turns out, the regular season matchup between these two teams did stay Under a near identical total. The Packers were only three-point underdogs for that game. Including last week’s 27-10 win over Minnesota, the Under is 4-0 the 49ers past four playoff games. The Packers, as we predicted they would, went Over last week. But that was against a bad Seattle defense. Play UNDER Green Bay-San Francisco

AAA

This is a 7* play on CAROLINA

The NHL’s Metropolitan Division has been controlled by Washington and Pittsburgh ever since realignment took place several seasons back. Those two franchises are back on top this year. But right behind them is a crowded field of playoff contenders. Count the Islanders and Hurricanes among them. Even though Carolina is sitting in sixth place with 57 points, that’s just three points back of the third place Islanders. Besides Washington and Pittsburgh, it is the Hurricanes that have the division’s best goal differential at +23. But three straight losses are what has the Canes in the position they are in right now. Two of those were division losses, but both were on the road. Losing 2-1 to Anaheim here at home Friday was not good, but we see Carolina bouncing back here and reasserting itself. Prior to losing to Anaheim, the Hurricanes had won three in a row at home, two of them shutouts. The Islanders lost to Washington yesterday, 6-4, and have now dropped four of their last five games. The only win was over Detroit, the worst team in the league. Carolina has had just one four-game losing streak this season. Won’t happen again. Play on CAROLINA

AAA

This is a 10* on TENNESSEE

Tennessee will seek to become the first 9-7 team to make the Super Bowl since the Giants in 2011. So far they have knocked off the Patriots and Ravens, both on the road. That’s the defending Super Bowl Champs and the team that finished with the best record in the league this year. Considering how well the Titans have played since Ryan Tannehill took over as the starting QB (gone 9-3), we just don’t think they should be getting this many points. We were dead wrong to go against them last week in Baltimore. A key edge for Tennessee against Kansas City is the running game with Derrick Henry. Henry has already run for 377 yards in two playoff games. He ran for 188 more in Week 10 over the Chiefs. In three career games vs. Kansas City, all of them wins, Henry has run well. The Chiefs defense has consistently been bad against the run this year as it ranks 26th in yards per game and 29th in yards per rush attempt allowed. Tennessee is 4-0 SU/ATS the L4 meetings vs. Kansas City including a playoff upset here at Arrowhead back in 2017. The Chiefs were able to storm back from a 24-0 deficit last week against Houston and score 51 points. But the Titans are much stronger defensively than the Texans are. Baltimore and New England combined for just 25 points against them. For the year, they give up just 19.8 points/game and were even better than that on the road. Not saying the Titans win outright, but they’ll cover the spread. Play on TENNESSEE

AAA

This is a 10* on BYU

Gonzaga is #1 in the country, but we don’t believe they are the best team. It’s quite likely that they would be underdogs against Duke, Kansas or Michigan State on a neutral floor. They may not be facing any of those teams tonight, but they are laying too many points. Coming off a 50-point win over Santa Clara, we figured the Zags would be overvalued for this Saturday night matchup with BYU and they are. BYU has covered eight of its last night games, also going 8-1 SU in the same stretch. The only SU loss was by three to St. Mary’s in overtime. Since then, the Cougars have recorded two straight wins by more than 20 points. Look for them to give Gonzaga a run for the money late Saturday night. Play on BYU

AAA

This is a 10* on ASKAROV

This fight takes place relatively early on tonight’s UFC 246 card and can only be viewed on ESPN+. But whether or not you have the capability or desire to watch, rest assured we’re looking at an easy bet tonight. This fight takes place at flyweight with a rising Russian prospect (Askarov) taking on the journeyman Elliott. Askarov is 10-0-1 so this looks to be a wonderful price. The draw came in his only fight for the UFC so far, back in September. But he’s ready to impress the brass tonight with what should be a finish against Elliott, who has dropped three of his past five fights. Before September’s draw, all 10 Askarov wins had come by either TKO or submission. Play on ASKAROV

AAA

THis is a 10* on MILWAUKEE

The Bucks are just plain ridiculous. At 37-6 SU, they are ahead of last year’s pace when they ended up having the best record in the league. If you’re surprised by the size of tonight’s line, you shouldn’t be. Brooklyn may have Kyrie Irving back in the lineup, but that hasn’t mattered so far as they’ve lost games to Utah and Philadelphia. Those are two good teams. But guess what? There aren’t any better teams than Milwaukee. Plus, while Irving is back, the Nets have lost some key support. It looks like backup center DeAndre Jordan is going to have to sit this one out. They may have won by only five points Thursday night, but the Bucks led Boston by as much as 20. They have scored at least 122 points in four straight games. The last three times they’ve gone to Brooklyn, they’ve come out ahead and covered the spread. The Bucks are winning by 12.5 points per game, which is amazing and we see them winning by double digits tonight. Play on MILWAUKEE

AAA

This is an 8* on OREGON

Oregon comes into this game ranked #8 in both polls. But they are almost certain to see that ranking drop after they lost out in Pullman on Thursday, 72-61 to Washington State. That was a shocking loss as the Ducks came in as nine-point favorites. They were outplayed by a team that had not beaten a top 10 opponent going back to 2007. While, on paper, today’s matchup with Washington looks to be the tougher of the two games this week, we are looking for the Ducks to bounce back here. Washington has lost four of its last six games to fall to 12-6 on the year, though they did beat Oregon State on Thursday. The Huskies are pretty strong defensively, but have not faced an opponent with the offensive capabilities of an Oregon since allowing 83 in a loss to Gonzaga over a month ago. The Ducks have dropped two straight conference games just six times in the last three seasons. Earlier this month, in what was a second road game in three days, they bounced back from a loss to Colorado to win at Utah. It’ll be the same deal here and the line is a non-factor. Play on OREGON

AAA

This is a 10* on COLORADO

While calling this “do or die” for the Avalanche would be overstating things, it’s a game they desperately want to have. Tied for second in the Central Division, the Avs are 10 points back of first place St. Louis, who is the opponent this afternoon. Coming into the New Year, the Avs had lost six straight times to the Blues. But that changed with a commanding 7-3 win on the 2nd of this month, a game that was played right here in Denver. It just so happens that was a Game of the Week play from us. Even though the revenge angle is now technically gone, we feel even more strongly about backing Colorado today. They have the better goal differential compared to St. Louis. Also, each team’s results from its last five games are misleading. St. Louis was a massive favorite in each of its last five games. So the fact they’ve gone 4-1 shouldn’t be that surprising. All five games were also at home. Colorado had dropped a couple decisions in OT before shutting San Jose out, 4-0, on Thursday. We expect the Avs to treat this like their most important game of the year (so far). Play accordingly. Play on COLORADO

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER 

In case you hadn’t noticed yet, Seton Hall is a really good team. The #18 ranked team in the country just went to Butler and won 78-70. We had the Over in that game, which won by more than 20 points. For the Pirates, it was the seventh consecutive win and cover. They are certainly poised to make a jump in next week’s rankings providing they can take care of business here against St. John’s. It won’t be easy. But again we like the Over. St. John’s has its own seven-game streak coming into this game, only with the Under. Obviously, we look for that to end Saturday. The Johnnie’s are coming off a loss at Providence where they did not shoot well. But at home they average 79.5 points/game, a big reason why they have a 10-2 record here in NYC. Seton Hall averages 75.2 points/game, so this one shouldn’t have much trouble going Over. During their win streak, the Pirates have failed to score at least 74 points just once. Play OVER Seton Hall-St Johns

AAA

This is an 8* on DETROIT +1.5 (PUCK LINE)

Detroit looks to “shock the world” on Friday as they host surging Pittsburgh. Although the Red Wings may have the fewest points in the league and the Penguins are 8-2-1 SU their last 11  games, we feel the underdog is likely to stay within a goal here and could pull the upset. That’s because Pittsburgh is coming in without rest having played in Boston last night. That hard fought game (a 4-1 loss) will have taken its toll and let’s not forget that before beating the Wild 7-3, the Pens previous three wins were all by one goal. Detroit is rested and while it comes off an awful 8-2 defeat at the hands of the Islanders, we think that will have them a little more motivated to come out and play hard Friday. Play Detroit +1.5 (PUCK LINE)

AAA

This is a 10* on WASHINGTON

We may have played against Washington two nights ago in Chicago, but here we like them getting the points against Toronto. It’s more points that they’re getting obviously and it comes at a time when the team is getting much healthier. In terms of making a run at the playoffs, it might be too late to save the season, but the Wizards are probably an undervalued team right now. As for Toronto, who has been dealing with its own set of injuries, they took care of business in Oklahoma City on Wednesday. It was a 130-121 win as a 1-pt underdog. But not since Christmas have the Raptors put together two straight  wins. This is probably their best shot to do so, but as mentioned earlier, it’s a very large number that they’ll be laying and it's to an opponent that averages 114.6 points/game. The Wizards led both at halftime and in the fourth quarter in Chicago. While they’ve gone 4-20 vs. Toronto going back seven seasons, they lost by just four here last month. The Raptors are 2-8 ATS in games with a total of 220 or more this season. Play on WASHINGTON  

AAA

This is a 10* on IONA

Iona is having a bad season (so far) but a lot of that can be attributed to the fact they haven’t played many home games. This will be just the fourth game all season at the Hynes Athletic Center for the Gaels, who have yet to win any of the previous three tries! As a result, it’s a 3-8 SU overall record and they’re 1-9 against the spread. After picking up a nice road win at Rider last Friday, the Gaels promptly dropped a one-point decision here to Niagara 70-69 as 8.5-point favorites. The fact they are favored again probably tells you all you need to know about the strength of the opponent, Fairfield, who is actually in off two straight wins. But those two wins came at home. While the Stags are 12-4 ATS overall and an unbelievable 9-1 ATS as underdogs, you have to think they’ve caught the eye of the oddsmakers and won’t be covering at that rate much longer. On the other hand, Iona is far too experienced a team to have these woes continue. Fairfield just played Wednesday when it knocked off St. Peters, whose leading scorer was held to only five points. Iona last played on Sunday so they are the “fresher” of the two teams and we’ll back them in this attractive spot. Play on IONA

AAA

This is a 10* on the OVER

Golden State hopes to avoid a 10-game losing streak tonight as it hosts Denver. Two nights ago, here at home, the Warriors lost by 27 against Dallas. It was the second straight game where they gave up over 120 points, but the fifth straight game that still went Under. The Nuggets went Under for a fourth straight time last night when they beat Charlotte 100-86. Look for these Under streaks to end tonight though. Golden State obviously isn’t playing good defense right now. Nor have they really played much defense in this lost, injury-riddled season that they are having. They are giving up 113.2 points/game. The Over is 25-11 the last 36 times Denver has played here. Facing a second game in two nights, the Nuggets may not be as focused as they usually are defensively. The Over is also 6-1 their last seven road games. Their last three games were all at home and they give up substantially more points when not in the Mile Hile City. It’s not like Denver games have been staying Under the total by many points eithers. Two of the last three were within three points of the number set by the oddsmakers. This one makes it Over. Play OVER Denver-Golden State

AAA

This is an 8* on BUFFALO +1.5

Dallas is in a lot better position than Buffalo right. Coming off an overtime win in Colorado, the Stars have won seven of eight and have 58 points, which has them second in the Central Division. Buffalo has just 49 points and is 5th in the Atlantic. As it stands now, the Sabres would miss the playoffs for a ninth straight season, the longest active drought in the sport. But there’s still a lot of games left and they aren’t ready to pack in it. It’s been two straight commanding wins with nine goals scored. Dallas hasn’t been nearly as dominant as you might think for a team that’s won seven of its last eight games. Two of their last three wins have been by one goal, so we like the +1.5 quite a bit here. They have not scored more than three times in any of the last four games. They actually trailed 2-0 at Colorado on Tuesday and were outshot 43-30. This is the Stars first game back after a long West Coast trip, so travel fatigue could be a factor. Buffalo has played a slightly tougher schedule and is 10-6-3 vs. Western Conference teams. Play Buffalo on the Puck Line (+1.5)

AAA

This is an 8* on BOSTON

Boston has lost two in a row and was just shut out 3-0 at Columbus on Tuesday. But each of those two losses came on the road. Tuesday was their first time being shut out this season. The Bruins return home Thursday and don’t be fooled by the number of defeats (11) they’ve suffered here in Boston. Nine of those 11 losses have come after regulation. Their two regulation losses are the fewest at home by any team in the league. Now it won’t be easy beating Pittsburgh, even in Beantown. But look for the Bruins to do it. We know the Penguins have won four straight, but they’ve still given up 12 goals in doing so. Three of the four wins came by a score of 4-3, two of them coming beyond regulation. The Penguins record on the road is only 12-7-2. The fact that Pittsburgh scored seven goals on Tuesday (Crosby’s first game back) has a bearing on both teams. The Penguins are 2-6 after scoring five or more times in their last game. The Bruins are 8-1 when facing a team that just scored at least five times. Even without goaltender Tuukka Rask, the hosts win this battle of premier teams. Play on BOSTON

AAA

This is a 10* on the OVER

Marshall was going Over quite a bit at the start of the year. Through the first 11 games, the Over was 8-3. But since then, scoring has curtailed some with the Under hitting in four of the last five. Speaking of Unders, that’s the way Charlotte’s previous six games have all gone. But we look for a different type game Thursday in Conference USA. There has been some unusually poor shooting in Charlotte games recently. Both they and their opponents have shot below 39%. That’s pretty incredible and something unlikely to continue. Marshall is still scoring 77.3 points/game at home, so look for them to score more than Charlotte’s recent opponents have. The Thundering Herd are coming off a road loss to UAB where they scored 50 points and were held to 33.3%. A return to Huntington will get them going again. The Over is 15-8 for Charlotte in the 49ers previous 23 games with a total of 130 to 139.5. Play OVER Charlotte-Marshall

AAA

This is a 10* on DREXEL

Drexel has won three of four. They just prevailed at James Madison 78-71 as a 3.5-point underdog. Tonight they host an Elon team that is also coming off a win, but the difference there is that the Phoenix had lost six in a row prior to that win. The win came against probably the worst team in the CAA, UNC Wilmington. The past two years have not been kind to Elon when they are off a conference win. They are 3-10 SU and ATS in that role. It sure was nice for them that UNC Wilmington made only 28.8% of its shots on Saturday. Drexel has a 46.8 FG% at home. Elon has covered the spread in five of the last six games, but isn’t getting nearly enough points here. They are 0-8 SU on the road while shooting 37% in those games. Drexel is 18-3 SU the last 21 times it has been favored, 5-0 this year, and should cover this number with room to spare. Play on DREXEL

AAA

This is a 10* on the OVER

Oklahoma City is a team that everyone needs to start taking very seriously. In the L10 games, they are 8-2 straight up and 9-1 against the spread. They have won 12 of their last 15 games as well. Since 2020 began, the only teams to beat the Thunder are the Sixers and Lakers. Neither of those games were played here in OKC. Tonight the defending champs will come to town. The Raptors haven’t won back to back games since Christmas as they are just 4-6 their L10 games. But the good news for them is that Christmas was also the last time they lost two in a row. So off a 1-point loss to San Antonio Sunday, Toronto may not be a team you’d want to fade, especially seeing as they are getting points. It’s not that often that the Raptors are underdogs. They average 110 points/game. But Oklahoma City averages 113 points/game at home. The Over is 8-1 the last nine times the Thunder have been favored and its 6-0-1 the last seven times Toronto has taken on a team that has a winning straight up record. Play OVER Toronto-OKC

AAA

This is a 10* on CHICAGO

The door is open for the Bulls to make a playoff run, they simply won’t “walk through.” A dreadful stretch has seen them go 1-7 straight up and against the spread. Looking at their last four wins, two have been against Detroit, one against Atlanta (who has the worst record in the league) and the other against the team they are hosting tonight, Washington. The Wizards have their own set of issues. Due to injuries, they’ve had a pretty lousy last month or so. They’ve won just six times going all the way back to December 6th. By rule, somebody has to win this matchup and we believe it’ll be Chicago and they’ll do so pretty easily. Washington is the league’s worst defensive team and the fact they give up 121.6 points/game on the road makes them almost unplayable at this number. Chicago has covered five of the last seven times it has taken on an opponent that has a losing record. Tonight is only the second time the Wizards have played on the road since Christmas. They lost by 34 at Orlando last week. Play on CHICAGO

AAA

This is a 10* on XAVIER

This has all the makings of a sharp, contrarian play as Marquette hosts Xavier on Wednesday. As of this morning, the short home favorite (Marquette) is getting the majority of bets, but the line is going the other way and that tells us that the larger bets are on the dog. Xavier has certainly had its issues covering the number this season (they are 4-12 ATS), but they’ve been a dog only three times. Their last two games, both of which were at home, saw them lose as favorites. Marquette has also lost its last two games and one of those was as a home favorite to Providence. Only 8-8 ATS on the year, we’re just not sure about the Golden Eagles being favored in this game. They are only 5-12 ATS their last 17 games against teams that have winning records. Xavier is 12-5 SU. For the record, the Musketeers are 9-3 ATS its last 12 games as an underdog, including 6-2 ATS when on the road. Play on XAVIER

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This is a 7* on MONTREAL

After a horribly unlucky eight-game losing streak, which saw six of the games decided by just one goal, Montreal has finally begun to turn it around. They beat Ottawa in overtime Saturday, then shut out Calgary here at home Monday. We had the Canadiens in both wins. For that win Monday, we pointed out that despite Calgary being a first place team, they actually had the same goal differential as the Habs. Tonight’s opponent is Chicago and not only are they not a first place team, they have been last in the Central Division much of the season. They also have a -15 goal differential even after their own back to back wins. Allowing lots of shots (36.9/game) has naturally led to the Blackhawks giving up lots of goals (3.4/game) in road games. They were in Ottawa last night and had to go to overtime to get the 3-2 win. So fatigue could be a factor tonight. Montreal doesn’t have nearly the same number of injuries as Chicago is dealing with right now. Play on MONTREAL

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This is a 10* on the OVER

Good matchup tonight in the Big East with #5 Butler playing #18 Seton Hall on FS-1. Both squads have been cashing plenty of tickets this year as Butler is 11-4 ATS while Seton Hall is 12-4 ATS. Both have won their last six games straight up with Seton Hall covering all six times and Butler being 4-2 ATS with the two non-covers coming by a combined 2.5 points. Look for this game to go Over the total. While both teams are certainly capable of playing good defense, they don’t have any problems putting the ball in the hoop either. Seton Hall averages 75.1 points/game. Butler averages 68.8 points/game. You can look for Seton Hall to be the fifth team to top 60 points on the Butler defense. Meanwhile, Butler is shooting almost 48% from the floor for the season. The Over is 6-2-1 the last nine times Seton Hall has been the underdog. Play OVER Seton Hall-Butler

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This is a 10* on GOLDEN STATE

Everybody knows this is not the same Warriors team from the last half decade. But as recently as Christmas there were signs that they might be able to turn around what seemed to be a lost season. They won four in a row including an upset of Houston on Christmas Day. But since then it’s been all downhill with an eight-game losing streak. To be fair, they were underdogs in all eight games and getting double digits in five. So it’s not like the oddsmakers are expecting them to win. But they certainly could be more competitive. Tonight the Warriors are facing the team that started the losing streak, Dallas, who has gone only 3-5 its last eight games. Our view here is that while the Mavericks likely win, they aren’t going to cover the large spread on the road. A national TV game should be enough to inspire Golden State tonight and they obviously are already motivated enough to end this long losing streak. Dallas just hasn’t been playing very well of late, save for Saturday’s win against Philadelphia. But that was at home. The Mavs have scored at least 140 points in both wins against Golden State this year. That won’t happen again and it’s yet another reason to think the home dog comes out motivated. Dallas is 0-6 ATS their last six games off an ATS victory. They are 0-5 ATS off a SU win of more than 10 points. Play on GOLDEN STATE

AAA

This is an 8* on VEGAS

In the Atlantic, Metropolitan and Central Divisions, first place is occupied by a team with at least 66 points. In fact, the leaders of those respective divisions (Boston, Washington & St. Louis) happen to have the three highest point totals in the league right now. But in the Pacific, 55 points (Calgary/Arizona) leads the way. Vegas is in the Pacific and just one point out of first place (54 points) despite a pretty mediocre. Three consecutive losses have hurt the Golden Knights, but obviously they remain in the thick of the division race. We like them quite a bit tonight as they should bounce back at Buffalo. The Sabres started their season at 8-1-1 through 10 games. Since then, they’ve gone 12-18-7, meaning they’ve lost two-thirds of their games. They beat the worst team in the league (Detroit) on Sunday, but that hardly convinces us that the Sabres are worth betting in this spot. The entirety of the Vegas three-game losing streak came at home, which is odd, but maybe hitting the road is what they need. This will be their third game in the last four days and they are just 3-9 SU off their previous 12 wins. Play on VEGAS

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This is a 10* on DAVIDSON

The Atlantic 10 is not as strong as it’s been in the past. With the exception of Dayton, who looks like they’ll be running away with things, there’s no surefire bet to make the NCAA Tournament from this conference. That’s what makes tonight’s game between Richmond and Davidson so critical for the teams involved. There’s a void to be filled and if either of these teams can get hot, there’s a possibility they go dancing. You’ve probably noticed that the team with the 7-8 SU record is favored over the one that’s 12-4. While that’s partly due to home court advantage, the favoritism should also tell you all you need to know about Richmond’s record. The Spiders just lost at home by 16 points to St. Louis as 5.5-point favorites. There’s no sugarcoating what a bad loss that is. Davidson is off to its own  disappointing start in conference play (1-2 SU/0-3 ATS), but did win Saturday against St. Joseph’s. The previous three games, all losses, were played on the road. The Wildcats have played only four home games so far, won them all, and averaged 88.7 points/game in them. Richmond’s leading scorer Blake Francis is listed as doubtful for this game due to a shoulder injury he sustained in the loss to St. Louis. That and the fact that Davidson is finally back home have us laying the points in this one. 10* DAVIDSON

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This is a 10* on MONTANA

This game finds both teams coming off upset wins. Portland State won at Montana State Saturday 77-76 as a 1.5-point underdog. Montana won 90-63 at Eastern Washington as a 5.5-point underdog. There are several reasons why the home team is the right choice in this situation. One, just look at those scores. Montana was far more impressive in its upset, winning by 27 as opposed to just a single point. Also, the Golden Grizzlies last played Thursday, so they’ve had more time to prepare for tonight’s game. They are also at home while Portland State is playing its fourth consecutive road game and second in three days. PSU gives up 76.5 points/game on the road. Montana allows 62.9 points/game at home. Lastly, this is a double revenge game for Montana. They lost twice to Portland State last season. Lay the points here. Play on MONTANA

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This is a 10* on LSU

It seems like forever ago that LSU put forth an unbelievable offensive display against Oklahoma, scoring 49 points in the first half on their way to an easy 63-28 win as two-touchdown favorites in the Peach Bowl. Heisman winning QB Joe Burrow threw seven touchdown passes - before halftime! Meanwhile, Clemson should feel lucky to be in New Orleans for this battle of 14-0 Tigers. They were down 16-0 to Ohio State in Fiesta Bowl, only to make a stunning rally, seemingly brought upon a targeting penalty that went against the Buckeyes. As we had the Under, the Tigers defense should be complimented for holding OSU to just 23 points, but they also gave up over 500 yards. They basically gained 100 fewer yards than the Buckeyes and virtually all of their yards gained came on the four touchdown drives. That doesn't sound like a winning formula to beat LSU. While we expect Clemson to play better, the fact this game takes place in New Orleans does them no favors as it will be a virtual home game for LSU, who is laying a shockingly low number all things considered. Play on LSU

AAA

This is a 10* on MINNESOTA

Before running into the Lakers Sat night, Oklahoma City had been on quite the roll. They’d covered the number in eight straight games and had won 11 of their last 13 straight up. But the 125-110 loss to LA, a game where the Lakers played without LeBron James and Anthony Davis, was a terribly disappointing result. Our view is that the Thunder, after overachieving for much of the first half of the season, could now be in a position where we start to see them “give some back.” Tonight’s game marks only the 4th time they will have been a road favorite this season. It comes against a Timberwolves team coming off its worst loss of the season. It was by 30 to Houston and they gave up 139 points. But not only has Minnesota covered four straight times when off a loss, they have had OKC’s number in the past as well, covering the spread in eight of the last nine matchups. The lone non-cover was last month in Oklahoma City, so that’s more revenge for the Timberwolves. The fact the Thunder won that last meeting by a score of 139-127 was highly misleading. The game went to overtime after a missed free throw (by Minnesota) and subsequent technical foul for a player not having his jersey tucked in properly. Play on MINNESOTA

AAA

This is a 10* on MONTREAL

Montreal finally did it, snapping an eight-game losing streak by beating Ottawa 2-1 on Saturday night. It took overtime to do it, which was almost apropos considering the number of one-goal losses than the Canadiens had endured during their slide. While one win is nice, the Habs are not “out of the woods” yet as the suddenly hot Flames come calling here on Monday night. Calgary’s five-game win streak has them in first place in the Pacific Division, a place they’re familiar with as that’s where they finished a season ago. However, we don’t feel this year’s Flames are nearly as good as the 2018-19 edition. This team has a negative goal differential (-8), which is quite odd for a first place team. Furthermore, Montreal actually has a slightly better goal differential (of -5), further proof that the East is by far the stronger conference this season. Don’t be fooled by the point totals or recent streaks. Montreal is the play here. Play on MONTREAL

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This is a 10* on PHOENIX

Charlotte isn’t a good team. But the fact they’ve even won 15 games is a bit misleading. They have a bottom five point differential and have lost 9 of their last 11 games. Both wins were by just three points. They have eight wins by three points or less this season, which is by far the most in the league. If not for all of those, they’d certainly be at the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings. So we’ll be looking to fade them Sunday night in Phoenix with our strongest NBA side bet of the week. The Suns may also have only 15 wins themselves, but they have been outscored by just 1.1 points/game. That’s actually tied for the 8th best differential in the Western Conference. After years of losing, the Suns are improved this year. They won at Charlotte last month, 109-104, as a four-point favorite. They should be favored by more here. Charlotte has not won on a Sunday all season (0-6 SU) and has gone 1-5 ATS in those games. This is Phoenix’s fifth straight game at home. They are coming off a 98-94 win against Orlando. Charlotte is playing its second road game in three nights. They lost by 17 at Utah Friday. Play on PHOENIX.

AAA

This is a 10* on the OVER

Seattle got here by beating Philadelphia 17-9 in the Wild Card Round. As per usual, the Seahawks hardly looked impressive in achieving victory. They won by beating a 40-year old backup (Josh McCown) that was called into emergency duty when Carson Wentz was knocked out by a dirty hit from Jadeveon Clowney. Nevertheless, the Seahawks offense did gain an impressive 6.7 yards per play last week. Say what you will about Seattle's resume, but Green Bay has rode the same good fortune to get here, typically winning "ugly" and close. The Packers defense did play well down the stretch, but is unlikely to hold the Seahawks to 17 points this week. Over the final five regular season games, Green Bay faced four of the worst quarterbacks in the league (Jones, Haskins, Trubisky and Blough). So that's why you saw the defensive numbers improve. By the same token, Seattle goes from facing a 40-year old that had zero time to prepare to a rested Aaron Rodgers. By the numbers, this wasn't your normal Rogers-esque season. But the Packers offense did average 6.4 YPP at home and is going against a defense that allows 6.2 YPP on the road. Worth mentioning that the Over is 10-1 in Seattle's last 11 games as a playoff underdog. The Over is also 5-1 in Green Bay's last six playoff games. Play OVER Seattle-Green Bay

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This is a 10* on MINNESOTA

For much of this year, Minnesota has played considerably better at home. But they’ve dropped three of four at the Xcel Center, the last one coming as part of a home and home sweep they suffered at the hands of the Calgary Flames. Still the Wild boast an 11-4-4 SU home record. They’ve had two days off since losing in Calgary. The situation today is a lot better for them than it is for Vancouver, who was in Buffalo yesterday. The Canucks beat the Sabres 6-3 for their first win on the current road trip, but they aren’t a particularly good team away from home. They’re giving up an average of 3.5 goals in road games, which makes it tough to win as you’re not going to score six times every game. The Canucks and Sabres were actually tied 3-3 in the third period yesterday before the former exploded for three goals over the final 14 minutes. Meanwhile, Minnesota has to feel like it outplayed Calgary Thursday as it had 14 shots on goal in the third period, but couldn’t get any to go in the back of the net. They lost 2-1, but the good news is that the Wild are 6-2 after allowing two goals or less their last game. Vancouver is 7-17 the last 24 times its been in the second leg of a back to back and they are 1-4 when playing a third game in four days. Play on MINNESOTA

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This is a 10* on SIENA

The MAAC is looking pretty weak this year, so we’ll excuse you for not paying much attention to these teams. What you need to know about Siena is that they have been a totally different team at home than on the road. Thursday’s 61-58 win against St. Peters was the Saints seventh straight home victory. But it was also the fifth straight game they didn’t cover. Their road record is 0-6. So this game being at Manhattan might lead you to believe we’ll be backing the other side. But not so fast. Despite its struggles to cover the spread, Siena has won five of six. Yes, every win was at home. And the only road game resulted in an eight-point loss to Rider. But we don’t think Manhattan is in the same class as Siena. The Jaspers only average 61.7 points/game. They’ve actually been below that scoring average in five of the past seven games. Siena won here last season. They actually held Manhattan to an average of 44.5 points/game in a season sweep. Jaspers leading scorer Greene (12.1 points/game) is questionable for this game. Play on SIENA

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This is an 8* on the UNDER

The Cavs last game should not have gone Over. The reason it did was because of overtime. They pulled out a 115-112 win in Detroit. While it was the fifth straight game they went Over, it was the only one that they were victorious in. Tonight that Over streak should end in Denver. The Nuggets just ended an Over streak of their own (of six games) in Wednesday’s win 107-106 win at Dallas. But make no mistake, this has been an Under team for the balance of the season. Before that Over streak started, two-thirds of all Nuggets games had stayed Under. They play great defense at home, allowing just 103.5 points/game. That’s something the Cavs can’t overcome. The Cavs only average 103.3 points/game at home. Play UNDER Cleveland-Denver

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This is a 10* Play on BALTIMORE

Tennessee shocked a lot of people, including us, when they went into Foxboro last Saturday and upset New England. The 20-13 win saw them pass for only 71 yards, but run for 200+. They were slightly outgained and got a defensive TD in the final minute (went for 2 pt conversion and missed it) to put the game away. The Titans are now 8-3 SU since Ryan Tannehill became the starter but will need a lot more from him and the rest of the offense this week as they face a far greater challenge in Baltimore. Unlike the Patriots, the Ravens do not struggle to score. Led by likely MVP Lamar Jackson, they led the league in scoring at 33.2 points/game. The Ravens have not lost since Week 4 (to Cleveland!) and eight of those 12 victories have come by at least two touchdowns. Furthermore, the defense has given up over 20 points just two times in the 12-game win streak. We just can't see the Titans offense scoring enough, or the defense limiting the Ravens enough, to stay inside the spread Saturday. Tennessee had to win its last regular season game just to get into the playoffs. They are 4-11 ATS the last three years when coming off consecutive wins. The franchise is just 2-7 ATS its last nine chances in the Divisional Round and 6-seeds have really struggled in this round, going 5-19 SU all-time with eight straight losses. Play on BALTIMORE

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This is a 10* on the UNDER

This is a late add to our Saturday NFL Playoff card as we’ve been monitoring the total all week and like where the number is now. Going into Foxboro and winning a playoff game is definitely impressive. But the Titans didn’t do much offensively. Ryan Tannehill passed for only 71 yards, a number which isn’t going to win you many games. The running game was much more successful (201 yards), but gaining that kind of yardage against the Ravens is just not likely. Baltimore’s opponents gained an average of just 93 yards/game on the ground in the regular season, doing so at only 4.3 yards/carry. Remember the Titans had only 14 points last week before a late INT return for a TD. If Tennessee is to have any chance in this game, it will be because of a defense that allows 17.2 points/game on the road. They won’t hold the Ravens that low, but combined we don’t see both teams exceeding the number here. The Under is 6-1 in Tennessee’s last seven playoff games and a perfect 6-0 the Ravens last six playoff home games. Play UNDER Tennessee-Baltimore

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This is an 8* on WAKE FOREST

Most aren’t going to give Wake Forest much of a shot here. But Duke just played a tight game with Georgia Tech that was tied with 4 ½ minutes remaining. That should give the Demon Deacons some hope. Last year, it was a one-point game here in Durham with Wake Forest easily covering the 24 point spot. Hopefully, Chaundee Brown (who is Wake’s second leading scorer) will return for this game. But even if he doesn’t, his teammates will be set to compete. The Blue Devils players won’t be apt to take this one nearly as seriously so Wake should hang around throughout. Duke has only covered two of its last seven home games. Play on WAKE FOREST

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This is a 10* on WASHINGTON

Playing its first actual road game of the season, Washington lost Thursday at Stanford by a score of 61-55. Going in, we knew it would be a battle of strong defensive teams, but where Washington came up short was from behind the three-point line. They made only 3 of 17 while Stanford was 11 of 30. It was a game the Huskies led by eight going into halftime. They should have a much easier time finishing the job tonight against Pac 12 lightweight Cal. The Bears are off a rare conference win (just their 6th in 40 tries) but it was one where they were favored as they played Washington State here in Berkeley. As an underdog, the Bears are just 1-8 ATS this season. They are also 0 for their last 9 ATS as a home dog of 6.5 to 9 points. They’ve covered only twice in 10 tries against teams with winning record this year. This should be a get well game for UW, who should be sick of close games at this point. Over the last four games, they’ve lost three times by a total of 12 points. But the one win was by 32. This should be more in line with that result. Play on WASHINGTON

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This is a 9* on MONTREAL

Something will have to give Saturday night in the capital city of Ottawa as the Senators have lost six in a row while the team they host, Montreal, is on an eight-game losing streak. For many, it’s a struggle to pick a winner when both teams are struggling this badly. But for us, there are a number of reasons we’ll be backing the Canadiens in this one. First off, Ottawa played last night in Detroit. Of course, we already know that they lost, but the fact the game went to a shootout makes the situation even worse. Secondly, Montreal has been much more competitive during its losing streak than Ottawa has been during their own skid. Six of the eight losses for Montreal have been by one goal. The Senators have been outscored 29-14 these last six games. That’s largely in line with what we’ve seen from the teams all season. Montreal has been outscored by just six goals. Ottawa has been outscored by 32. Lastly, while the teams split a pair of games over in the province of Quebec this year, the Canadiens have won 7 of the previous 10 meetings. Play on MONTREAL

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This is a 10* on UNDER

So Detroit just split a home and home with the Cavs. Both results were a bit misleading in our opinion. They won 115-113 in Cleveland despite trailing by double digits for most of the game. Then the rematch in Detroit was a painful result for those (like us) that had the Under as the game wound up going to overtime. Cleveland won 115-112, a game that really had no business going Over. It was tied 102-102 at the end of regulation, well below the total of 220.5. Part of the problem for Detroit is that they are missing three of their top five scorers. Luke Kennard hasn’t played since December 21st while Blake Griffin is going to be out for a long-time. Markieff Morris is out as well. The scoring burden has fallen onto Andre Drummond and Derrick Rose and we just can’t see them continuing to carry the load. So look for lower scoring efforts from the Pistons moving forward. As for Chicago, they just got blitzed last night by Indiana, who shot 57%. It was the fourth straight Bulls game to go Over. But Detroit isn’t going to shoot as well as Indiana did last night nor Chicago’s other recent opponents. The Bulls have injuries as well, limiting what they can do offensively. Five of the last six games, they’ve scored less than 109 points. An interesting trend is that Chicago is 4-1 Under the last five times their starters combined for 160+ minutes the previous day. They combined for 165 last night. Play UNDER Chicago-Detroit

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This is an 8* on MINNESOTA

It seems like the Vikings win over the Saints on Wild Card Weekend caught a lot of people by surprise. They did it with defense. Aside from the gimmickery of Taysom Hill, who threw a 50-yard pass and ran for another 50, New Orleans was held to just 224 yards and they got three points off an early Minnesota fumble. A similar defensive effort will be needed this week against the top seeded 49ers, who are rested coming off their bye. San Francisco was the best team in the NFC during the regular season. But if you look at their defensive numbers down the stretch, cracks did begin to show. Over the first seven games, SF never allowed more than 20 points and gave up an average of just 11 points/game (started 7-0). Ever since, they've allowed 20+ in eight of nine games and an average of 25.8 points/game. They've also lost three times. While some of the 49ers players have postseason experience, many don't and this is their first playoff game together as a group. We think it's pretty clear Minnesota is still being undervalued despite last week's win, which was the first time ever under Mike Zimmer they'd been getting seven or more points in a game.  Say what you will about QB Kirk Cousins, but he played well last week. Play on MINNESOTA 

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This is an 8* on DALLAS

Compared to the Lakers, Dallas has a very similar point differential and net efficiency rating. However, they are lagging well behind in the standings. The Mavericks have fallen all the way down to 6th place in the West, seven games back of LA. It was a tough loss on Wednesday as they fell here at home, 107-106 to Denver. That makes tonight’s game even more important. The Mavs have caught a big break in that Anthony Davis is out (tailbone) and LeBron James hasn’t been feeling well. So it’s a game the Mavs really should win. The Lakers haven’t lost since Christmas, going 6-0 since, so you couldn’t fault them if they failed to match the sense of urgency Dallas has coming into tonight’s showdown. Key here is that the Mavericks were favored against Denver on Wednesday. They are a perfect 9-0 ATS this season when coming off a loss as a favorite! While just 2-3 straight up their last five games, all three losses by the Mavs have been by five points or less. They are better than their record and actually one of the top teams in the league. Play on DALLAS

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This is a 10* on AKRON

We had to the MAC for some Friday night College Hoops as Akron hosts Ball State. In what looks to be a wide open conference race, these are going to be two of the likely contenders for regular season supremacy. Akron comes in sporting the better record at 12-3 and they’ve started the conference slate with two dominant wins. The Zips only losses were to Louisville, Liberty and West Virginia. Liberty was actually undefeated at the time while the other two are top 15 teams. Akron has been a dominant home team, winning all nine of its games here by an average of 20.3 points/game. They’ve gone 6-1 ATS as a favorite this year. We fail to understand why this number would be so low given Ball State is only 13-28 ATS its last 41 MAC games. Akron even has triple revenge as they are 0-3 straight up vs. the Cardinals the last two seasons (two of the losses in 2018). Play on AKRON

AAA

This is an 10* play on UNDER

As recently as a year ago, a total this high would have been unfathomable for a matchup between San Antonio and Memphis. But the Grizzlies can score now (112.6 points/game) while the Spurs don’t play defense like they used to (114.8 points/game allowed). Still, this is a really high total and we can’t see the game going Over, even with what we’ve seen recently from both sides. San Antonio just beat Milwaukee and Boston in consecutive games by scoring 126 and 129 points. But neither they nor Memphis, who has shot 51% or better in three straight games, are likely to continue the recent stretches of white hot shooting. Grizzlies games with a total of 230 or higher are 4-2 Under. There have just been too many Overs produced by both teams recently. Eventually the shooting has to cool down. San Antonio shot 55.2% against Boston in the last game. These are very difficult percentages to maintain so let’s take advantage of a high total. Play UNDER Spurs-Grizzlies

AAA

This is a 7* on CAROLINA

Of the three games on Friday’s NHL slate, this one figures to be the most one-sided. Yes, we’re very aware that the team we’re playing against (Arizona) is in first place in the Pacific Division. But this is a terrible situation for the Coyotes as they were shut out last night in Tampa Bay 4-0. Host Carolina has been off for two days. What you need to understand here is how much better the Hurricanes division is. Even though they’re fourth in the Metropolitan, they have almost the same number of points as Arizona and they have a better goal differential. The Canes are a strong 11-3-1 SU against the Western Conference this year and an impressive team at home where they outscore opponents 3.7 to 2.9 goals per game with a heavy edge in shots. The Coyotes had won four in a row before getting blanked Thursday. But playing a third road game in four nights and second in two is going to catch up with them here, especially in light of injuries between the pipes. The Hurricanes are 9-4 this year playing with two days rest. Play on CAROLINA

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This is an 10* on BROOKLYN

The way things are going right now, this could end up being a 1st round playoff series. Miami has won 8 of its last 10 games to get to 27-10 on the year and that’s good enough for 2nd place in the Eastern Conference. Brooklyn has spent much of this season in 7th place, but has recently fallen to 8th as they’ve lost seven in a row and even worse failed to cover all seven games. This despite Caris LeVert returning to the lineup after a lengthy absence. Kyrie (Irving) won’t be back for at least another week, so someone needs to step up for the Nets. They’ve been hit by some bad luck lately. Tuesday’s 111-103 loss to Oklahoma City went to overtime and dropped the Nets to 1-4 in OT games this season. We think them getting the Heat at home Friday night is a good spot. First off, Miami may be a league-best 17-1 at home. But they are just 10-9 on the road and have given up more points than they have scored. It was a three-point game when they came to Brooklyn on December 1st. The Heat are also off an upset win in Indiana. They’ve covered just once in five previous tries this year when off a win as an underdog. The Nets fortunes are due to change and the same is true for Miami. Play on BROOKLYN

AAA

This is a 10* on WASHINGTON

After losing two straight, Washington clearly wasn't fooling around Sunday night. They beat USC 72-40, holding the Trojans to 20 percent shooting for the game (yes, 20 percent!) in what was a complete annihilation. Before losses to UCLA and Houston, the Huskies were a top 25 team whose only losses had been to Tennessee and Gonzaga. We think that's important to remember when looking at their upcoming Pac 12 schedule. Thursday will be the first actual road game of the year as UW goes to Stanford. The Cardinal are 12-2 and also won their last game, although it took place back on Thursday. Rival Cal was no match here in Palo Alto with the Cardinal winning 68-52. But Washington is a different story. The Huskies swept last year's season series. They are a tall team with plenty of length and have better defensive numbers than Stanford. UW opponents are shooting just 40.2 percent on two-point shots this year. At the same time, the Huskies make 54.2% of their own two-point shots (26th in NCAA) and get to the FT line quite a bit.  Stanford might be 12-2, but they don't really have much in the way of quality wins. We like the better team catching points. Play on WASHINGTON

AAA

This is a 10* on MONTREAL

Montreal is S-T-R-U-G-G-L-I-N-G. Tuesday in Detroit made it a seven-game losing streak. The most embarrassing part of it is that was the third time this year the Canadiens lost to the Red Wings, an 11-win team! Tonight the Habs will try their hand at beating Edmonton. This is a home game and while the team's record is actually WORSE in Montreal, you wouldn't know it simply by looking at how many shots per game they average here (36.6). What's interesting about this matchup is how oddsmakers continue to price these teams. Montreal, despite its losing streak and Edmonton coming off two big wins, is being favored for a fourth straight time. The Oilers two-game win streak has seen them go to Boston and Toronto and come out ahead despite being priced at +190 and +185 respectively. A third straight win as a money line dog seems unlikely. Also worth mentioning are the teams records and their corresponding goal differentials. Montreal is 18-19-7 yet has only been outscored by five goals all season. Six of the losses during this current slide have come by one goal. That's some awful luck. Edmonton is 23-17-5, but has also been outscored by five goals this season! The Oilers had been 0-6 off their previous six wins before Tuesday's 6-4 decision at Toronto. They are still 0-5 after scoring 5 or more goals the previous game. Play on MONTREAL

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

This is an immediate rematch of a game played Tuesday night, won by the Pistons, in Cleveland. It was a 115-113 final that saw Detroit rally from an 11-point fourth quarter deficit. We think this one will be lower scoring. The Pistons are coming off a six-game road trip and are likely to struggle offensively as many teams do in the first game back at home after a long trip. Remember they don't have either Blake Griffin nor Reggie Jackson in the lineup. Markieff Morris is also being bothered by a foot injury. The Pistons have topped 110 points in consecutive games only one time since December 18th. As for Cleveland, it's time for their four-game Over streak to end. They are averaging just 102.6 points/game on the road. Injuries (as well as the flu) have also taken a toll on this Cavs roster. Larry Nance Jr and Kevin Porter Jr are both definitely out. Two teams that just don't have many scoring options at their disposal won't be able to get this one Over. Play UNDER Cleveland-Detroit

AAA

This is a 10* on UNDER

After a brief rough stretch at the end of 2019, Washington has gotten back to winning. They've started the new year 3-0 and scored 15 goals in the process. Tonight they take on a team that's no stranger to scoring itself. The only problem for Philadelphia is that it's been their opponents doing most of the scoring. In a four-game losing streak, the Flyers have given up 21 goals. At the same time, they've scored 13 themselves, which is actually not a bad number. Overall, the Capitals have gone Over in five straight while the Flyers are 4-0 Over those last four games. So that's nine straight Overs. But we're taking a different tact for this one as all this goal scoring is unlikely to continue. Those four losses for Philly were all on the road. At home they're giving up just 2.1 goals/game, which is one of the lowest marks in the league. The last two teams Washington beat (San Jose, Ottawa) are both not having good seasons, so this should be more of a struggle. This is the second game of a back to back for both teams, so we could be dealing with some tired skaters. The Under is 18-7-2 in Flyers games if they went to overtime the previous night. Play UNDER Washington-Philadelphia

AAA

This is a 10* on DALLAS

Dallas comes into this game in sixth place in the Western Conference. But at 23-13 overall, they are only two games back of second place Denver, whom they host here. They'll do so without the services of Kristaps Porizingis, but Luka Doncic is here and he's coming off a 38-point, 11-rebound and 10-assist game Monday vs. Chicago. It was Doncic's 9th time scoring at least 30 while registering a triple double and the Mavericks won 118-110. Meanwhile, this is hardly the most ideal time for the Nuggets to face a matchup like this. It will be their fifth road game in a row and it's a trip that began all the way back on New Year's Eve. Denver has not been playing good defense of late, giving 120.8 points the last five games including 128 and 130 in two losses on this trip. Dallas has the most efficient offense in the NBA in terms of points per possession. This is the Mavs fourth straight game at home, so the situation totally favors them. We have them rated several points better than Denver so it looks like we're getting a real bargain with the pointspread. The Nuggets did win in Atlanta Monday, but have failed to cover off their five previous victories. Play on DALLAS

AAA

This is a 10* on WAKE FOREST

Florida State enters this game as a top 10 team in the country. They're 13-2 SU so far and have won six in a row since losing at Indiana back on December 3rd. On Saturday, they traveled to Louisville and upset the favored Cardinals 78-65 as 6-point underdogs. But the Seminoles have every right to be "wary" of Wake Forest tonight as the Demon Deacons pulled their own upset Saturday, winning at Pitt 68-65 as a 6.5-point underdog. Wake is plenty rested as that upset of Pitt is the only game that they have played the last 2 1/2 weeks. FSU is playing back to back road games for the first time since opening their season at Pitt and Florida. For what it's worth, the Noles did lose to the same Pitt team that WF just beat. That Pitt game was the only time previous to tonight that FSU has been favored on the road and they lost outright. Again, they also lost at Indiana. Wake Forest has already won four times as an underdog. They've covered five of the last seven times getting points. Seems like too many points for FSU to be laying here. Play on WAKE FOREST

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

Toronto took a 101-99 loss to Portland last night, keeping them in 4th place in the Eastern Conference. That was at home, now they head out on the road to face Charlotte. It's been a struggle for the Raptors of late with them dropping five of the last eight games. In each of the last three, they've failed to score 100 points. But look for them to rediscover their "lost" shooting touch tonight against a Hornets team that's permitting 111 points/game. The last three Charlotte games have all gone Over as have six of the last seven Toronto-Charlotte matchups. Earlier this year, the Raptors hung 132 on the Hornets in a blowout up in Canada. They probably won't score that many tonight, but they'll definitely score enough to help send the game Over the total. The total for that first matchup was several points higher than it is here. The only other time this season Toronto has had to go home --> away with no rest in between, they gave up 120 points. Charlotte has gotten 29 points/game from guard Terry Rozier the last three games. Play OVER Toronto-Charlotte

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