Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
01-01-21 | Ohio State v. Clemson OVER 66.5 | Top | 49-28 | Win | 100 | 99 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER So we like BOTH CFP semifinals to go Over the total this year. Ohio State did not exactly face a slew of great offenses in the Big 10 this year. Well, they did face Indiana and gave up 35 points. Clemson is so much better than any previous Buckeyes opponent. Back at full strength, the Tigers have rolled to victories by 35, 35 and 24 points since Trevor Lawrence returned. The fewest points scored in any game by Clemson this season was 34. We project them to eclipse that number here as they are averaging 44.9 and an even higher number when Lawrence plays. But Ohio State also is averaging more than 40 points/game (42.5) and we think they’ll have more offensive success than you might think. The Buckeyes only hope here is to put a bunch of points on the board. The good news is that they are more than capable. They average 529 yards per game and 7.3 yards per play. They scored 38 points or more in every game but the Big 10 Championship when they were facing a stingy Northwestern defense. This will be a much higher scoring game compared to when these teams faced off in last year’s CFP semifinals as this time it’s indoors (Superdome). Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
01-01-21 | Celtics v. Pistons UNDER 215.5 | Top | 93-96 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Detroit has done little to sway us on their awful preseason projection as they’ve started 0-4. This figures to be one of the worst teams in the league this season, if not THE worst. Every loss has come by at least eight points and now they have to host Boston on New Year’s Day. The Celtics are 3-2 following consecutive wins over Indiana and Memphis. This will be the first of two games here in Beantown these teams will play, the next one coming on Sunday. While the Celtics got a career high 42 points from Jayson Tatum against the Grizzlies (he shot 15 of 21), that’s not something we see happening again anytime soon. Kemba Walker remains sidelined with an injury. The defense has not been great thus far for the Pistons, but neither has the shooting, including just 38% vs. Golden State on Tuesday. After allowing above 50% shooting its first four games, Boston’s defense improved dramatically vs. Memphis and we expect it to stay there. The Under is 6-2-1 when the Celtics are off a game where they scored 125+ and 14-6 when they are off a double digit win. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
01-01-21 | Old Dominion v. Florida International UNDER 151 | Top | 67-82 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER FIU is averaging 88.6 points/game so far, but that number will almost assuredly start to come down. The lofty scoring average has more to do with whom the Panthers have faced thus far. They just hung 113 on Carver Bible, a performance that you certainly shouldn’t put much stock in. Two games ago, FIU went to double overtime with Ga Southern, so that point total was artificially inflated. Bottom line: their hot shooting to start this season is due to cool off. Old Dominion hasn’t shot well on the road (39.4%) nor from three point range anywhere (27% overall). This figures to be among the highest totals for any Monarchs game all season. A team that doesn’t shoot it well away from home going against a team due for a downturn in shooting has all the makings of an Under, particularly on New Year’s Day when both teams could be a bit “sleepy.” This is our top total of the month from Conference USA. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
01-01-21 | Notre Dame +20 v. Alabama | Top | 14-31 | Win | 100 | 94 h 12 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NOTRE DAME The Rose Bowl is in Arlington, TX this year and Alabama is a monster favorite over Notre Dame in the first of the two CFP semifinals. While we do expect the Crimson Tide to win this game, look for the Fighting Irish to score enough to cover the spread. Bama just gave up 46 points (to Florida) in the SEC Championship Game. While Notre Dame got held to 10 points in the ACC Championship Game, they had scored at least 31 in six straight and eight of nine before that. This is a truly massive spread and while ND probably isn’t in the same league as Alabama, we find it hard to believe they should be this large of an underdog against ANYONE. Taking on Clemson at a neutral site, they were only 11-point dogs. Yes, they were blown out, but that’s led to a real overadjustment from the oddsmakers. The Irish are 6-3 ATS the last nine times they’ve been a double digit dog (goes way back, to 2008). For all the talk of Nick Saban in big games, Bama is only 3-6 ATS its L9 CFP games and 0-3 ATS the last three. This is the third highest spread in bowl HISTORY (not just the CFP). We simply HAVE to take the points. Play on NOTRE DAME AAA |
|||||||
01-01-21 | Notre Dame v. Alabama OVER 65.5 | Top | 14-31 | Loss | -110 | 94 h 12 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER Not only do we like the points in the Rose Bowl, we expect there will be plenty of points scored. We already detailed why we think Notre Dame will cover this game. Part of the rationale was that they’ll score plenty of points. Well, there’s no sugarcoating the fact Alabama will as well. This Tide offense may be the best in school history. They are averaging almost 50 points/game and have gone over 50 three straight games. The SEC Championship Game vs. Florida was a 52-46 final. The two times Notre Dame played Clemson, they gave up 34 and 40 points. They are likely to give up at least 41 here as Bama has hit that number in each of its last 10 tries. That means Notre Dame would have to score around 24 to both cover and send this one Over. Considering Alabama didn’t face that many good offenses this year, that should happen for the Irish. Florida was by far the best offensive team the Crimson Tide faced all year and look how many points they gave up in that one. The Over is now 22-8-2 in Alabama’s past 32 neutral site games. The Over is also 4-1 the last five times ND has been off a loss by 20 or more. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
12-31-20 | Nevada -6 v. New Mexico | Top | 68-54 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 8* on NEVADA Similar to the San Diego-San Francisco matchup, the favorite for this game has been far more “active” in the early part of the season. Nevada has played eight games compared to only five for New Mexico. The Wolf Pack could only manage a split of two home games vs. Air Force, losing the second one by two points despite being an 11.5-point favorite. They are back in the favorite role tonight, and for good reason as New Mexico just lost twice in a row at Boise State. Those losses were by 24 and 37 points. Two of the Lobos' three wins this year came against non-Division I opponents that go by the names of Our Lady of the Lake and Letorneau. Not exactly NCAA Tournament resume builders! Don’t care that this game is in Albuquerque as Nevada is a perfect 5-0 ATS the past five times it has been a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. New Mexico is just 11-24 ATS vs. teams with winning records and has lost three straight times to Nevada - all by double digits. Play on NEVADA AAA |
|||||||
12-31-20 | Knicks v. Raptors -9 | Top | 83-100 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TORONTO Toronto is 0-3, both straight up and against the spread, but here comes the Knicks to rectify that problem. Now the Knicks have won two straight including a shocking upset of Milwaukee. So the Raptors need to take this game seriously. Given their record, you have to think they will. They have beaten the Knicks eight consecutive times. New York is going to be really short-handed for this one due to multiple injuries. A near skeleton crew playing on the road on New Year’s Eve probably isn’t going to bring out the best effort from them. The 130 points they scored against Milwaukee was a fairly “head-scratching” performance while the other win was “only” against lowly Cleveland, who shot 36.4% from the field. The Knicks lost by double digits each of the first two games. We know the Raptors aren’t able to play in Toronto yet (home games are in Tampa, FL for now), but this is one they badly need as they seek to avoid their worst start to a season in a decade and a half. Play on TORONTO AAA |
|||||||
12-31-20 | Kings v. Rockets -5 | Top | 119-122 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
This is an 8* on HOUSTON A lot of drama in Houston (COVID, James Harden) has resulted in an 0-2 start, but the Rockets should finally blast off tonight against Sacramento. The Kings are beating the odds thus far with a 3-1 start that has seen them face both the Nuggets and Suns twice. They were underdogs in all four of those games, just as they are here. But three of those four games were at home. Two of the wins came by three points or less. Seems like the Kings are due for a “reality check” on New Year’s Eve as Houston has gone 6-1, both straight up and against the spread, vs. them the previous two seasons. John Wall is set to make his Rockets debut here as he and two other players return from quarantine. The others are Eric Gordon and DeMarcus Cousins. The Rockets were only able to travel with nine players for their two road games because of COVID protocols. This looks to be an obvious spot where they get things going in a positive direction. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
|||||||
12-31-20 | San Diego v. San Francisco -12.5 | Top | 62-70 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SAN FRANCISCO San Francisco has been far more “active” than San Diego heading into the WCC opener for both teams. The Dons have played 10 games thus far, though only one of those came here at home. They are 6-4 with two of the losses coming fairly recently, on the road against Pac 12 schools (Cal and Oregon). Their most recent game was a 68-65 victory over Grand Canyon University. San Diego is just 1-3 and the last time we saw them (12 days ago), they were being blown out (by 32 points) at UC Irvine. That doesn’t bode well for the Toreros today. They’ve lost two of their three road games by at least 27 points. USF should be quite thrilled to be playing at home on New Year’s Eve. In their only home game thus far, the Dons put up 107 points on Long Beach State. So far they’ve won three times by at least 25 points. So lay the double digit spread in this one. Play on SAN FRANCISCO AAA |
|||||||
12-31-20 | Minnesota v. Wisconsin UNDER 143 | Top | 59-71 | Win | 100 | 9 h 0 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER Minnesota has had a very impressive last three games as they’ve knocked off St. Louis (who was undefeated at the time), Iowa (a top 10 team) and Michigan State (by 25 points). However, all three of those wins did come at home. Tonight they hit the road to face Wisconsin and the Golden Gophers certainly hope this goes better than their only previous road game did. A 92-65 loss at Illinois is the only blemish on Minnesota’s resume this season and while losing to one of the best teams in the country isn’t a big deal, getting blown out is never a good look. Wisconsin isn’t going to be in a good mood here as they are off a loss to Maryland which snapped a 5-0 SU and ATS run. Both teams have been going Over a lot recently, but we see that changing here as the Badgers allow just 57.9 points/game at home. This will be Minnesota’s fifth consecutive game against a team that entered either unbeaten or ranked in the Top 15. These teams met twice last season and the totals for those games were 129 and 125.5. This one is much higher. Wisconsin plays at a very slow pace and Minnesota, who has been getting to the FT line A LOT lately, won’t get there as much today. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
12-31-20 | Mississippi State v. Tulsa -2.5 | Top | 28-26 | Loss | -110 | 193 h 60 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TULSA This year’s Armed Forces Bowl pits 3-7 Mississippi State against 6-2 Tulsa. In any other year, Miss St would NOT have gotten a bowl invite. So we’ll relish the opportunity to play against Mike Leach’s Bulldogs in this one. While they did end the regular season with a somewhat impressive 52-31 win against Missouri (only win over a bowl team), prior to that MSU had lost three in a row and seven of its last eight. The only win in those eight games came against Vanderbilt. Tulsa is a feisty 6-2 and ranked #24 in the country. They have an excellent defense that shut down the likes of UCF, SMU and Oklahoma State. Even in the AAC Championship Game where they lost 27-24 to undefeated Cincinnati, the Golden Hurricane defense did an excellent job. That game was decided on a field goal as time expired. Tulsa’s only other loss was at Oklahoma State and they led there in the second half. This is a really strong team, much better than MSU on both sides of the football. It is absolutely remarkable that we are able to get them laying so few points to a team as bad as Mississippi State. The only reason this line is so low is because MSU is an SEC team. But Tulsa isn’t facing an SEC All-Star team here, or even a good SEC team. Miss State’s offense is terrible, ranking outside the top 100 in most key categories. They were held to 14 points or less in five of their nine games. They cannot run the ball at all. They average only 36 yards/game rushing, which is LAST in the country. The weather isn’t expected to be nice in Fort Worth, TX on New Year’s Eve and that favors Tulsa. A truly incredible matchup for the Golden Hurricane, who can make a national statement to end 2020. Play on TULSA AAA |
|||||||
12-30-20 | Lakers -5 v. Spurs | Top | 121-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LA LAKERS We’ve seen how the Lakers perform off a loss before and it was a 138-115 thrashing of Dallas on Christmas night. They are off a loss again tonight as they fell 115-107 to Portland on Monday. Their first road game of the year is tonight in San Antonio where they’ll face a Spurs team that is 3-0 ATS. This is the first of two straight games here in the Alamo as the teams play again on New Year’s Day. Though it was the second night of a back to back, it was a little surprising to see the Lakers falter down the stretch against Portland. It was the first time in more than a year that they lost a game in which they led going into the 4th quarter (59-0 previously). But they didn’t get much production off the bench (only 23 points) and thus couldn’t finish the job. However, we like them to finish here as the Spurs only scored 95 points against New Orleans on Sunday, their first loss of the 2020-21 season. We don’t expect much from San Antonio this year and they lost all three times they played the Lakers in 2019-2020. All three games were decided by at least seven points and two were at home. Play on LA LAKERS AAA |
|||||||
12-30-20 | La Salle v. Dayton -12 | Top | 67-65 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
This is an 8* on DAYTON We don’t anticipate Dayton having any problems with A-10 rival LaSalle on Wednesday. The Flyers are double digit favorites here for a reason, namely a 33-5 SU home record the L3 seasons. Quietly, they’ve also gone 54-14 SU overall during that time frame. They are off to a 4-1 start this year, the only loss coming by two points. Every Dayton game has been decided by six points or less with four of them decided by a total of 11 points. But the two most recent wins both came against SEC teams. LaSalle is not a good team as they are 3-5 and really struggling to score when not at home. The Explorers come in averaging only 60.8 points/game when playing on the road or at a neutral site. That’s problematic considering Dayton only allows 62.7 points/game at home. The last two meetings between these two sides have seen the Flyers prevail by 26 and 31 points. LaSalle scored only 39 and 58 points. It’s gonna get ugly again tonight. Play on DAYTON AAA |
|||||||
12-30-20 | Seton Hall v. Xavier OVER 144 | Top | 85-68 | Win | 100 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Seton Hall probably won’t be the least bit bothered by being the underdog in this game. The Pirates are a perfect 10-0 ATS the past three seasons as a road dog of 3.5 to 6 points. Furthermore, they are catching Xavier off its first loss of the season. The Musketeers went down at the hands of #11 Creighton, 66-61, but did at least cover as 7-pt underdogs. These teams met twice last season with the road team, an underdog each time, winning both games. But Seton Hall plus the points isn’t the best course of action tonight, rather it’s playing the Over. Xavier has been a bit of a “scoring machine” as it is averaging 81.6 points/game for the year and 85.1 points/game at home. Seton Hall is averaging 76.7 points/game and gives up 77.0 on the road. This is a game where both teams seem destined to score over 70 points. Considering that, the O/U looks to be too low. The Over is 4-0 the last four times Xavier has been off a SU loss. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
12-30-20 | Wisconsin -8.5 v. Wake Forest | Top | 42-28 | Win | 100 | 21 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WISCONSIN So Wisconsin had a really underwhelming regular season. The Badgers were supposed to waltz their way to the Big 10 Championship and face Ohio State. Instead, they lost three games. In each of those three losses, which came in a row, they were held to 7 points or less. That was downright shocking. So now the Badgers end up facing a 4-4 Wake Forest team in the Mayo Bowl. As they were for every regular season contest, Wisconsin is favored here. The underdog role suits Wake Forest well as they went 3-0 ATS when taking points in the regular season. But there is a massive gap between these two teams on the defensive side of the ball. Wisconsin allows 15.7 points/game. WF allows more than double that (31.6) and a frightening 40.8 points/game when they play outside of Winston-Salem. The Demon Deacons have played just one game since November 14th and it was a 24-point loss to Louisville. They’ve allowed 104 points their last two games. Wisconsin has won five of its last six bowl games, the only loss coming by a single point to Oregon in last year’s Rose Bowl. We still believe in this team and think they’ll roll here as the offense gets on track against a bad defensive team. Play on WISCONSIN AAA |
|||||||
12-29-20 | Bucks v. Heat +5.5 | Top | 144-97 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI This is a rematch from last year’s playoffs where Miami “stunned” Milwaukee with a 4-1 series win. The Bucks are just 1-2 to start the year with road losses to the Celtics and Knicks. Their only win, Christmas Day vs. Golden State was at home. Losing to the Knicks is embarrassing enough but giving up 130 points was really bad. Considering that loss and the revenge angle, we are anticipating “everyone” to be on the Bucks here, but the spread is too high. Miami hasn’t played since Christmas when they easily handled the Pelicans. That 111-98 win was reminiscent of the team we saw go all the way to the NBA Finals back in October. Probably no Jimmy Butler tonight, but that’s okay as the Heat can still turn to a deep roster that’s led by Bam Adebayo’s team-high 21.0 PPG scoring average. The team is also 10-3 SU/9-3 ATS when playing with three or more days rest. The Bucks aren’t getting much offensive production beyond their top two scorers (Giannis, Middleton) and the defense looked very shaky in both defeats. Play on MIAMI AAA |
|||||||
12-29-20 | Florida State +1.5 v. Clemson | Top | 67-77 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* on FSU Clemson’s only loss this season came exactly two weeks ago when they visited Virginia Tech. So far that is the Tigers’ only road game and it’s their only ACC game as well. They bounced back from that defeat last Monday by beating Morehead State 66-51 and while they did lead by as many as 24 in the second half, they ended up not coming close to covering the 26-point spread. Tonight they face #18 Florida State, who also has just one loss on the year. Like Clemson, the Seminoles are off a win following a loss. They lost to UCF, 86-74 at home, before bouncing back against Gardner Webb last Monday. They also did not cover a large spread last time out. While this will be the Noles first true road test and they are just 6-17 ATS L23 visits to Death Valley, we like them getting points in this spot. Last season, they were favored to win here (lost by 1) and also beat the Tigers by 18 down in Tallahassee. FSU is on an 8-5 ATS run as underdogs with six outright victories. This is the first time they have gotten points in 2020. Save for the loss to UCF, FSU’s defense has been good in every game this season and they are the best team Clemson will have faced so far. Play on FLORIDA STATE AAA |
|||||||
12-29-20 | Oklahoma State v. Miami-FL +1.5 | Top | 37-34 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI For the first time this bowl season, we’ve got a matchup of ranked teams! #21 Oklahoma State takes on #18 Miami in this year’s Cheez-It Bowl, which goes down Tuesday evening in Orlando, FL. Though the programs can both claim to have had Jimmy Johnson as a head coach, they’ve met only one time and that was in 1991. This line is trending towards ‘pick ‘em’ territory after OSU opened as a three-point favorite. We agree with this move as Miami will be the more motivated side coming off the butt-kicking they took at the hands of North Carolina in the last game. The Hurricanes only other loss this year was to Clemson. Oklahoma State has a good defense, but it’s third down numbers probably won’t translate to the bowl game facing talented Miami QB D’Eriq King, who has accounted for more than 3000 total yards and 26 touchdowns. OSU’s best offensive player, RB Chuba Hubbard, has opted out of this game. So that’s a break for the Miami defense. Getting this game “up the road” in Orlando is another advantage. The most motivating factor of them all is that Miami will be looking to reverse some “ugly” recent bowl history (1-9 L10) including last year’s unforgivable 14-0 loss to Louisiana Tech. Now they have King and we expect them to play well. Oklahoma State had failed to cover five in a row before beating Baylor in their last game. Play on MIAMI FL AAA |
|||||||
12-28-20 | Rockets +7 v. Nuggets | Top | 111-124 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON This seems like a lot of points for Houston to be getting? With the James Harden saga and COVID cancelling their first game, the Rockets are seemingly being “written off.” But they did take Portland to overtime in their only game played so far (lost 128-126) and easily covered a spread similar to this one. Harden scored 44 points and didn’t seem the least bit bothered by the drama. Denver is 0-2 right now with home losses to Sacramento and the Clippers. The Sacramento game went to overtime, but they were straight out blitzed X-mas night by LA. The expectation here will be that Denver “can’t” lose a third straight game at home. But that line of thinking has led to an inflated number, which we will gladly grab. The Rockets are 8-3 ATS the L11 meetings with the Nuggets and 25-19 ATS their L44 as underdogs. They flat out seem “mis-priced” in the early going this year. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
|||||||
12-28-20 | Bills -7 v. Patriots | Top | 38-9 | Win | 100 | 22 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BUFFALO The Bills are AFC East Champs for the 1st time since 1995. They will be either the #2 or #3 seed once the playoffs begin. The #2 seed gets to play the Wild Card with the worst record, so there still is something to play for here. Not to mention a season sweep of the Patriots, which the Bills haven’t done since 1999. New England has fallen hard in 2020 as Cam Newton simply could not fill the shoes of Tom Brady. Not many though he would, but 6-8 isn’t what you’d expect from the Patriots. Buffalo’s primetime woes are now a thing of the past as they’ve won three straight night games. Now it’s time to exorcise some more demons. Giving Bill Belichick his 1st losing season since his 1st year in Foxboro would be something. New England has scored just 15 points - total - the last two games and averages only 20.6 per game for the year. Buffalo put up 48 points last week in a laugher over Denver (we had the Bills) and is putting up 29.1 points/game. It’s now the Patriots that are just 1-4 ATS in primetime this year and they also haven’t covered a game (in four tries) when playing with extra rest. Buffalo has covered six in a row and QB Josh Allen is peaking at the right time. The Bills defense has allowed less than 20 points three of the past four weeks. Play on BUFFALO AAA |
|||||||
12-28-20 | Fresno State v. Colorado State UNDER 141 | Top | 53-75 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Fresno State and Colorado State haven’t played all that much this season. In fact, Fresno has played just twice - both games against non-board teams (William Jessup and Fresno Pacific). So the fact they are 2-0 really doesn’t mean much coming into the MWC opener. Colorado State is 3-1, their only loss coming in a putrid offensive effort vs. St. Mary’s where they scored all of 33 points. Under is our call in this one as neither team is in much of a rhythm right now. Against Fresno Pacific, who is not even a Division I team, Fresno State could only muster 39.1% shooting from the field, which is just terrible. On the bright side, they’ve held both opponents this year below 35% shooting. Colorado State has held its last three opponents all below 37%. That one stinker vs. St. Mary’s is obviously holding the Rams’ offensive numbers down. But this isn’t really a great offensive team by any stretch. Facing a “real” team for the 1st time this year will be a shock for Fresno State and this game stays Under. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
12-27-20 | Suns -2.5 v. Kings | Top | 116-100 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PHOENIX Phoenix will look to avenge last night’s 106-103 loss in Sacramento, which was their first ATS loss in 10 games going back to last season’s bubble. They’d also won all nine games straight up. Sacramento is 2-0 with those wins coming by two and three points. They opened with an overtime win against Denver, but just as easily could be 0-2 right now. We can’t really see 3-0 happening for the Kings. So we’ll lay a short number with the Suns in this immediate revenge spot. Huge edges in rebounding and free throw attempts were key for the Kings last night. It’s atypical they enjoy such large advantages in those areas. Play on PHOENIX AAA |
|||||||
12-27-20 | Titans v. Packers -3 | Top | 14-40 | Win | 100 | 129 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* on GREEN BAY A win Sunday night could give the Packers the coveted #1 overall seed in the NFC. Remember that only one team - per conference - receives a first round bye starting with this year’s playoffs. The possibility of getting that top seed should have Green Bay plenty motivated for this one. Now they’ll know if they can clinch by kickoff. If the Rams beat Seattle, then the opportunity is there. But even if that result doesn’t happen, a win would keep them in the pole position heading into Week 17 when they’d only need to beat the Bears at home. The Packers haven’t had much trouble winning, taking six of the last seven games and four straight. They haven’t committed a single turnover during the 4-game win streak. When you take out some garbage time scoring from Detroit and Chicago, Green Bay’s defensive numbers from the last seven games look really good. In those seven games, only the Colts have scored more than 25 points against them. It would be no more than 20, if you take out the garbage time scoring. The Packers are 19-4 SU their last 23 home games. Play on GREEN BAY AAA |
|||||||
12-27-20 | Rams v. Seahawks | Top | 9-20 | Win | 100 | 25 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 9* on SEATTLE The Rams lost to the Jets last week. So it’s tough to imagine them winning in Seattle. One week later, we’re quite proud of last week’s call on the Jets. While we didn’t expect them to win straight up, we did highlight many of the Rams shortcomings, which all seemed to come to light in the most embarrassing loss of the season. Meanwhile, the Seahawks handled their business in a 20-15 win over Washington. The week before, they beat the Jets 40-3, which was here at home. Having already suffered their own embarrassing home defeat (three weeks ago vs. Giants), Seattle doesn’t dare let its guard down again. They are looking to avenge a 7-point loss in LA from last month. They didn’t have their top two running backs for that game. The defense is also now a whole heck of a lot better with Jamal Adams running wild. No opponent has scored more than 21 against them during the last five games. The last four have scored only 52 points total. A win here would give the Seahawks the NFC West title, something they dearly want. The Rams are just a .500 team this season (5-5) when you factor out four games vs. the NFC East. Play on SEATTLE AAA |
|||||||
12-27-20 | Broncos v. Chargers -3 | Top | 16-19 | Push | 0 | 25 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 7* on LA CHARGERS This game will determine who finishes in the basement of the AFC West. For much of the year, the Chargers have occupied that dubious spot. But after last week’s wild 30-27 win in Vegas, Los Angeles has moved into a tie with Denver. Both are 5-9 coming into this game. Five wins is actually an achievement for Denver as they have yet to be favored in a single game this season. Anyone who saw them last Saturday vs. Buffalo knows this is not a good team. The 48-19 loss tells us the effort just isn’t there any longer. You may be thinking that the Chargers have no reason to try either, but they’ve got revenge for an unforgivable loss earlier in the season. In Denver, they led by 21 points only to end up losing 31-30. Anthony Lynn is very much coaching for his job right now. These teams may have the same record. But the Broncos have been outscored by 119 points while the Chargers have “only” been outscored by 62 points. The Chargers are the better team and we like them to win. Play on LA CHARGERS AAA |
|||||||
12-27-20 | Evansville v. Southern Illinois -7.5 | Top | 57-63 | Loss | -118 | 6 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SIU Southern Illinois is one of three Missouri Valley teams still without a loss. The Salukis are 6-0 SU, 5-0 ATS and now begin conference play with a home game against Evansville. We’re no strangers to the Purple Aces as on Monday we won our 10* Total of the Week in their game at Belmont, which was a 72-63 loss for them. That dropped them to 2-4 on the year and both wins were by just three points at home. SIU enters in off its most impressive win to date, a 76-73 upset of Butler as a 9.5-point road underdog. We look for them to handle their business today in Carbondale where three of their four victories this season have been by double digits. SIU has won all four meetings against Evansville the past two seasons with the last one coming by 17 point (that was here at home). Evansville is 5-25 SU its last 30 road games. Play on SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AAA |
|||||||
12-27-20 | Giants v. Ravens -9.5 | Top | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 22 h 40 m | Show |
This is an 8* on BALTIMORE Since Lamar Jackson returned to the lineup, the Ravens are averaging more than 40 points/game. The Giants have scored a grand total of 30 points over that same time frame. So expect this rematch of Super Bowl 35 to quickly deteriorate into a blowout. That the Giants are still vying to be the winner of the horrible NFC East carries little water for us. Baltimore is also trying to lock down a playoff spot and likely needs to win out to get it. So expect them to take no mercy in this home game. They are 34-0 SU all-time as a double digit favorite. So it’s just a matter of covering the spread. Considering the offensive numbers of the Giants (31st overall in yardage), who may be starting Colt McCoy, winning ATS should not be difficult. (By the way, we don’t consider Daniel Jones much of an upgrade from McCoy, so the play still stands if Jones does end up starting). Jackson has accounted for more touchdowns in the past three games than Giants’ QBs have accounted for all season! The Ravens are 23-8 SU in December home games under Harbaugh and 11-1 SU this month in games started by Jackson. This should be a two touchdown spread. Play on BALTIMORE AAA |
|||||||
12-27-20 | Bears v. Jaguars UNDER 47.5 | Top | 41-17 | Loss | -109 | 22 h 39 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the UNDER All of a sudden, Chicago has a shot at the playoffs. This after being “left for dead” when a 6-game losing streak had them at 5-7. But back to back wins have turned things around in a dramatic way. They still need to win out and have Arizona lose once. Winning this week should not prove difficult as they are facing Jacksonville, losers of 13 in a row. The Jaguars’ offensive numbers are just terrible. They average only 17.0 points/game at home. So whether it's Gardner Minshew or Mike Glennon starting at quarterback (looking like Glennon) is of little concern. Remember Jacksonville shouldn't want to win as they are line to get the #1 pick. But we wouldn’t dare lay this many points with a Bears team that is just 3-10 ATS its last 13 games as a favorite. While the situation may seem conducive for a big offensive game from Chicago, a 4th straight game from them with 30 or more points would be somewhat unprecedented. You’d have to go back to 1965 to find the last time a Bears team did that. Let’s be careful about anointing Mitchell Trubisky as anything special. The Bears are not a team that can send the game Over themselves, so let’s play Under as the Bears DEFENSE should be the stars Sunday. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
12-26-20 | Liberty v. Coastal Carolina -7 | Top | 37-34 | Loss | -104 | 27 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* on COASTAL CAROLINA We were happy to jump on the Coastal Carolina bandwagon early this year. All the Chanticleers have done is go 11-0 straight up and 8-2-1 against the spread. They’ll try and finish off a perfect season Saturday as they take on fellow “Cinderella story” Liberty, who is 8-1 SU and ATS, in the Cure Bowl in Orlando. With the two teams a combined 16-3-1 ATS, there’s a lot to like here. But no one disputes Coastal Carolina is the better team. These teams were actually supposed to play in Conway, SC back on December 5th, but COVID prevented that and instead gave us one of the best games of the year, Coastal Carolina’s 22-17 win over BYU. Liberty hasn’t played since November 27th. Coastal Carolina is 5-0 ATS against teams with winning records this year. Liberty did beat Virginia Tech, but the Hokies weren’t that good and the rest of the Flames’ schedule was WEAK. The only bowl team they defeated was Western Kentucky, who was 2-6 at one point. Coastal Carolina is stronger on both sides of the ball. Play on COASTAL CAROLINA AAA |
|||||||
12-26-20 | Magic v. Wizards OVER 228 | Top | 130-120 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The Magic and the Wizards will play each other on both Saturday and Sunday in D.C., part of a new scheduling approach you’ll see more of in the NBA this season. For this first meeting, we are expecting a good deal of points to be scored. Orlando is off an impressive 113-107 win over Miami in its opening game while Washington lost by that same exact score (what a coincidence!) in Philadelphia. Making his Wizards’ debut, Russell Westbrook had a triple double, though it wasn’t enough to get his new team over the hump. Still, we expect plenty of scoring in Wizards’ games this season. Not just because of what Westbrook can do, but also because Bradley Beal was having a career year before getting hurt last year. Unfortunately though for Washington, they were also one of the worst defensive teams in the league last year and that probably won’t change in 2020-21. The Over is on an 83-54 run in Wizards games when the total is 220 or higher. It’s also 13-4 when they play with 2 days of rest and 44-20 when facing a team that has a winning record. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
12-26-20 | 49ers v. Cardinals -4.5 | Top | 20-12 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 27 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ARIZONA When Arizona “upset” San Francisco 24-20 in Week 1 (were 7 point underdogs!), it really set the respective paths these teams have taken in 2020. The Cardinals are one of the NFL’s most improved teams, winning 8 games already after a 5-11 campaign in 2019. The 49ers were in the Super Bowl last year, but won’t be back there this February as they’ve fallen to 5-9 SU coming into this Saturday contest. Arizona has had San Francisco’s numbers the last several seasons, winning 9 of the last 11 matchups and covering the spread in the past six. We expect those trends to continue Saturday. CJ Beathard is now the starting QB for the Niners, their third different starting QB of 2020. It’s been that kind of season for them. The Niners haven’t done a good job of protecting their other two QBs and Beathard figures to be under siege by an Arizona defense that has averaged seven sacks each of its last two games. The Cardinals have scored 59 points the last two games - both wins - as they make a playoff push. The 49ers have lost three in a row and six of seven. They are toast with a third string QB. Play on ARIZONA AAA |
|||||||
12-26-20 | Indiana v. Illinois -7 | Top | 60-69 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ILLINOIS Being ranked #18 in the country isn’t a bad place to be, but we think even more highly of Illinois. Yes, they’ve already lost three times, but two were three-point games and all three were on the road. Saturday has them welcoming Indiana to Champaign-Urbana in a battle of two of the Big 10 teams that did not play on Christmas Day. Indiana is off a loss, a bad one at that, as they were nine-point favorites against a Northwestern team that beat them 74-67 in Bloomington. That was their third loss so far. As tempting as it may be to take the points in the gritty Big 10, the Fighting Illini are the play here. They’ve won their four home games by an average of 37.5 points. They also just beat Penn State by 17 on the road. As long as they don’t give up 75 points, the Illini are unbeaten in 2020. Indiana averages 72.5 points/game and has been held below 70 in four of its last six. Not enough firepower on the Hoosiers bench to keep up with an Illini team that’s shot better than 50% each of its last five games. Play on ILLINOIS AAA |
|||||||
12-26-20 | Bucs v. Lions UNDER 54.5 | Top | 47-7 | Win | 100 | 20 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER When Tampa Bay went out and signed Tom Brady, making the playoffs became not just a goal, but an expectation. With a win Saturday in Detroit, the 9-5 Buccaneers can officially realize that expectation and start concentrating on a Super Bowl. The 5-9 Lions don’t figure to offer much resistance, especially with interim head coach Darrell Bevell and defensive coordinator Cory Undlin set to miss the game because of COVID. Since Bevell also serves as the offensive coordinator, look for the Lions offense to struggle. QB Stafford has injured ribs and QB coach Sean Ryan will be calling plays, something he’s never done in a NFL game. Expect the Lions, who don’t have much success running the ball to begin with, to have virtually zero success doing so in this game. The Bucs have the best run defense in the league, yielding only 78 yards per game. On the offensive side of the ball, slow starts have been a problem all year for TB. The Lions are 11-5 Under L16 December games. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
12-25-20 | Mavs +7 v. Lakers | Top | 115-138 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 36 m | Show |
This is an 8* on DALLAS Both the Mavs and Lakers are coming off season-opening losses. The Lakers fell 116-109 to the Clippers while the Mavs lost 106-102 in Phoenix. Though Luka Doncic was able to score 32 points against the Suns, he was 0 for 6 on three-point attempts. His teammates’ shooting was no better (25 of 59) as the Mavs finished the game at just 42.4% overall and a miserable 9 of 24 from behind the arc. We expect the shooting will improve Christmas night. The turnaround between seasons is short and unprecedented for every team, but especially the Lakers, who were in the NBA Finals a scant two months ago. Being a more veteran team, they could start slow. They fell behind the Clippers by 20 early on opening night and had 19 turnovers. The offseason acquisitions make them stronger (than last year) in the long run, but those pieces are going to need time to “gel.” Not only do we see Dallas covering on Christmas night, they may very well end up winning this one outright. Play on DALLAS AAA |
|||||||
12-25-20 | Vikings v. Saints -7 | Top | 33-52 | Win | 100 | 77 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NEW ORLEANS Drew Brees returned to the starting lineup last week, but that wasn’t enough to prevent the Saints from losing a second straight game by exactly a three-point margin. It would be unwise to start writing off the Saints, however. Not only is Brees back, but the last time they lost two in a row (Weeks 2 & 3), they responded with a 10-game win streak. They also aren’t facing the Chiefs this week. Instead, it’s Minnesota, who just lost at home to Chicago. The Vikings have also lost two in a row and even worse they’ve failed to cover five straight games. New Orleans is looking to clinch the division with a win and we really like their chances playing at home on Christmas Day. The Saints have feasted on losing teams, going 12-3 SU and 11-4 ATS their L15 such games, including 6-1 and 5-2 in 2020. It was just two weeks ago we were all speaking of their defense as being the best in the league. That unit should get back on track this week. Can’t say the same for Minnesota’s defense, which is giving up 27.7 points per game and 6.0 yards per play. The Vikings have just one win against a team with a winning record all year. Play on NEW ORLEANS AAA |
|||||||
12-25-20 | Warriors +7.5 v. Bucks | Top | 99-138 | Loss | -110 | 92 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on GOLDEN STATE After making five straight Finals appearances and winning three NBA Championships, the Warriors completely fell apart last season. Injuries were the reason. Klay Thompson and Draymond Green remain “on the mend,” but Steph Curry is back and set to lead the team back to relevance in 2020-21. Opening night certainly didn’t go the way Golden State had hoped as they got blown out in Brooklyn, 125-99. But you can say the same for Milwaukee, who lost their first game, 122-121 in Boston. Even though the Bucks nearly won, they too found themselves down double digits much of the second half. That they shot 51% on the road and lost is a “tough pill” to swallow. With “everyone” expecting Milwaukee to bounce back on Christmas Day, we’ll be siding with the Warriors as this line is far too large for a game taking place this early in the season. It’s only going to get higher due to Golden State’s first game performance. But Curry, who had 20 points vs. the Nets, is going to shoot better than 2 for 10 from 3-point land here (that’s what he shot in Brooklyn). The Warriors’ 3-point defense will also improve after they allowed the Nets to hit 43% from distance. Milwaukee has several new pieces and it’s going to take time to gel after the short offseason. We don’t see them being as dominant right away, compared to the past two seasons. We really believe in the Warriors here. Play on GOLDEN STATE AAA |
|||||||
12-25-20 | Marshall +4.5 v. Buffalo | Top | 10-17 | Loss | -105 | 48 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MARSHALL Marshall and Buffalo were thinking about Conference Championships last Friday. But after both lost their respective title games (as favorites), they’ll match up on Christmas Day in the Camellia Bowl (played in Montgomery, AL). Really this is all about who responds better to last week’s loss. Marshall is coming off two straight losses after starting their season 7-0. Buffalo was a perfect 5-0 before losing to Ball State exactly one week ago. Marshall’s offense is obviously a “work in progress” and cannot get into a scenario where they need to “trade points” with Buffalo. But fortunately they have a defense that came into the C-USA Champ Game allowing just 88.9 yards/game. Buffalo has RB Jaret Patterson, but he was limited in the MAC Championship by a knee injury and only ran for 47 yards on 18 carries. The Bulls offense managed only one score in the second half of the MAC Championship and it was on a long run (not by Patterson). It’s also tough when your defense gives up 35 points in half like Buffalo’s did. Marshall’s defense has not allowed more than 22 points in any game all season. We like them as the underdog, a role they were in just once during the regular season -- when they upset Appalachian State. Play on MARSHALL AAA |
|||||||
12-24-20 | Hawaii +11.5 v. Houston | Top | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 25 h 60 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HAWAII This game may be called the “New Mexico Bowl,” but it’s actually taking place in Frisco, TX due to COVID restrictions. Houston isn’t complaining as the game is even closer to home, a welcome reprieve after the Cougars had EIGHT cancellations/postponements during the regular season. But we’re not sold that they should be this big of a favorite. They’ve played just one time since November 14th and that ended up being a 30-27 LOSS to Memphis. Not coincidentally, we played against UH there as well. They were 6.5-point road favorites for that one. Hawaii was just 4-4 SU and 3-5 ATS in the regular season. But if you take out games where they were favored (0-3 ATS), then they begin to look like a more attractive bet here. Led by QB Chevan Cordeiro (2450 total yards, 18 total touchdowns), the Warriors should score a reasonable number of points in this game. The only other time this season they were catching double digits was vs. Boise State. Houston is missing two of its best defensive players as they opted out to prepare for the NFL Draft. Same with their leading receiver. Houston has lost three straight bowls. Their head coach Dana Holgorsen is 2-5 straight up in bowl games. Play on HAWAII AAA |
|||||||
12-23-20 | Bucks -2.5 v. Celtics | Top | 121-122 | Loss | -117 | 49 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE Milwaukee has been the best team in the Eastern Conference each of the last two seasons, but has yet to make their way to an NBA Finals. Boston has made it to the Conference Finals in three of the last four seasons. So both of these teams have high hopes for 2020-21. With Giannis Antetokounmpo now signed, the Bucks can focus on the court and do what they do best. This has been the best offensive team in the league, at least in the regular season, two years running. They added Jrue Holiday. The Celtics have more question marks entering the season. Gordon Hayward is now in Charlotte. Kemba Walker is out because of a knee injury. So we think it could be a slow start in Beantown. The Bucks have beaten the Celtics in 8 of the previous 10 matchups and are 5-2 ATS the L7. They handle their business in the opener. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
|||||||
12-23-20 | Heat -4 v. Magic | Top | 107-113 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 7* on MIAMI The Heat will open this season where last season ended, that being Orlando, which of course hosted the NBA bubble. It won’t be the same arena where they lost to the Lakers in the NBA Finals in October, but the visit should still evoke memories. We like Miami to win tonight, though the money line appears to be the better option than the spread (which is rising). The Heat should again be one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference and while they’ll be restricting Jimmy Butler’s minutes (he averaged 43 MPG in the Finals) early on, there are no such limitations for Miami’s young core. Avery Bradley was an offseason acquisition, coming over from the Lakers. Orlando did not make any real changes in the offseason after finishing 8th in the East. They are probably going to battle with the likes of division rivals Atlanta and Washington for spots in the new ‘play-in’ scenarios this year. Though Miami wasn’t favored all that often during its playoff run, they have covered five straight as chalk. They’ve also beaten the Magic three straight times. Play on MIAMI AAA |
|||||||
12-23-20 | Florida Atlantic v. Memphis OVER 50 | Top | 10-25 | Loss | -112 | 20 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER We look to make it three straight Overs to open the bowl season. While only the two bowls we’ve played (first two) have gone Over thus far, even last night’s UFC-BYU game featured plenty of scoring (72 total points). The only reason that one didn’t go Over is that it had the highest O/U of any bowl this season. There’s just not much incentive for these teams to play solid defense this time of year. Florida Atlantic should be the latest example. While the Owls only gave up 16.5 points/game in the regular season, it was shredded in the finale for 45 by a terrible Southern Miss squad. Memphis, who is certainly capable of putting up a big number, should do so here in the Montgomery Bowl. They averaged 450 yards/game in the regular season and scored 40 or more points three different times. Interestingly, FAU is 4-0 all-time in bowls while Memphis has lost five straight bowl games. The Tigers definitely should be motivated to come out and put up a lot of points. FAU will score enough too. The Over is 14-5 in Memphis’ L19 non-conf games Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
12-23-20 | Towson v. George Mason OVER 137.5 | Top | 65-70 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER It’s not been a strong start to the year for Towson, although that was probably to be expected as Tigers’ first three games have come against Virginia, San Francisco and Buffalo. They were the dog in all three games and are a predictable 0-3. It’s been almost a MONTH since we’ve seen them, due to COVID cancellations. Their ATS record is also 0-3. George Mason is also 0-3 ATS, although they did win their last two games SU - beating Howard and VMI. The Patriots’ schedule has obviously been a lot less challenging than Towson’s, however there are several suspensions that GMU is currently dealing with. We like this game to go Over as it’s a low total and the shooting from both sides is due for improvement. Towson has made less than 40% of its field goal attempts thus far, which is insane. They have allowed at least 74 points in every game and unfortunately (for them), we don’t see that changing. George Mason gave up 77 and 70 its first two games. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
12-22-20 | Clippers v. Lakers -2 | Top | 116-109 | Loss | -105 | 272 h 46 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LAKERS Though we’re projecting both LA teams to fare quite well this season, the clear call on Opening Night is to take the Lakers. The consensus view is that the Lakers are now a better team than when they won the NBA Finals a scant two months ago. Looking at the roster, it’s difficult to argue with that assessment. Valuable additions such as Dennis Schroder, Montrezl Harrell and Marc Gasol make the Lakers a deeper team. It’s easy to “fall in love” with what Talen Horton-Tucker did in the preseason. Even though they just won the NBA Championship, LeBron and company will want to remind the league that they are the team to beat. The Clippers are a bit of a mess right now with the Kawhi Leonard situation seeming like a real distraction. They have a new coach in Ty Lue. It’s not like Doc Rivers was a bad coach, so problems with this team may run deeper than coaching. The teams split four regular season meetings last year, one of them in the bubble. The Lakers won the last two. Give me the favorite to win on Opening Night. Play on LA LAKERS AAA |
|||||||
12-22-20 | Texas Tech -1.5 v. Oklahoma | Top | 69-67 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TEX TECH Texas Tech looks to bounce back from its second defeat of the season here as they travel to Norman to face Oklahoma. The Red Raiders lost by just 1 point to Kansas at home, but we still consider them to be one of the premier teams in the country. So do the oddsmakers by having them favored in this spot. Oklahoma is 5-1, but that one loss was really bad as they were blown out 99-77 by Xavier. That’s been the only real test thus far for the Sooners and they failed it miserably. They did win at TCU, but Texas Tech is a lot better than both TCU and Xavier. Offense isn’t always pretty for the Red Raiders but they come in as the #1 rated team in defensive efficiency in the entire country. Considering OU made only 5 three-pointers against Houston Baptist, a season-low, they figure to struggle from the perimeter again tonight. The Sooners are just 8-20 ATS off a SU win. Take the better team to win this nationally televised affair. Play on TEXAS TECH AAA |
|||||||
12-22-20 | Tulane v. Nevada OVER 56.5 | Top | 27-38 | Win | 100 | 20 h 23 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER There was no shortage of scoring in the first bowl game and we expect the same thing in bowl game #2. Our participants in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl are Tulane and Nevada. Tulane was 6-5 in the regular season, covering the spread in six of the last seven games. The lone non-cover was against Tulsa, whom they led 14-0 in the fourth quarter while getting +4.5 from the oddsmakers. The Green Wave were not only 0-2 in overtime games this year, there were also two early season games where they led by 17 or more points and still lost! But the bottom line is they still averaged more than 35 points and that Tulsa loss is the only game since September where they didn’t hit 31. Now onto Nevada, who was once 5-0, but ended up 6-2. The Wolfpack scored 34 or more in half their games. They had 20 at halftime vs. SJSU, but were shockingly shutout after that. If not for that second half blanking, they would have averaged more than 30 points/game this season. Nevada has a good QB in Carson Strong and he definitely catches a break here as the Tulane defense will be without two All-Conference selections. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
12-22-20 | Northern Illinois v. Toledo -14.5 | Top | 55-78 | Win | 100 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 9* on TOLEDO Northern Illinois just picked up its first win in six tries as they beat Chicago State 64-54 on Friday. But Chicago State is arguably the worst team in all of Division I College Basketball. The Huskies are still without an ATS win (0-6) this season as they were 16.5-point favorites in that last game. They were also favored in the first two games of the season. Here they are underdogs to a Toledo that has played only one bad game and that was against a superior Michigan squad. The Rockets enter in at 6-3 with the other two losses coming by two and three points. They’ve won five of the last six, Michigan being the lone defeat. Northern Illinois already has three 20+ point losses on its resume and we just don’t see them staying close Tuesday afternoon. Toledo has actually lost three in a row to NIU, so they are going to take this game lightly nor will they take it easy on their downtrodden conference foe. In three previous home games, the Rockets have allowed an average of just 58.3 points/game. Play on TOLEDO AAA |
|||||||
12-21-20 | Steelers v. Bengals UNDER 40.5 | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -115 | 35 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Neither the Steelers nor the Bengals have done much scoring lately. Pittsburgh, who was 11-0 but now is 11-2, has not scored more than 19 points in any of its last three games. While a matchup with 2-10-1 Cincinnati certainly seems like a recipe for success, the Steelers simply won’t have to score many points to come out ahead in this one. That’s because their defense - still one of the league’s best - figures to have one of easiest “days at the office” on Monday. The Bengals are starting Ryan Finley at QB tonight. He’s even worse than Bradon Allen, who quite frankly wasn’t very effective himself in filling in for the injured Joe Burrow. In the last five games, Cincinnati has scored just 50 points total, never more than 17 in any one game. How do you think they are going to perform with a third string QB going against the league’s #1 scoring defense? Pittsburgh won’t put up 30 in this game, simply because they “don’t have to.” Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
12-21-20 | Belmont v. Evansville UNDER 138 | Top | 72-63 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Belmont is off and running with a 7-1 start to the season. The Bruins are averaging 80 points/game. The only loss was a bit of a head-scratcher as they fell, as 17.5-point home favorites, to Samford. Of course, Samford is a team that scores plenty of points as was very obvious with that game ending up 96-83. Evansville isn’t going to score anywhere in that neighborhood, however. The Purple Aces are putting up an average of just 65.2 points in their five games so far and only one time have they topped 68. Evansville hasn’t shot well so far as they’re below 40% overall from the field. One area where they’ve REALLY struggled is defending the three-point line. Opponents are making 46% of their threes against the Purple Aces and the two previous teams that visited here hit 55% from behind the arc! You really can’t get any worse than that, so even if Evansville’s actual defense doesn’t improve, the opposition’s shooting will cool off regardless. Belmont is not a great three-point shooting team. This one stays Under. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
12-21-20 | North Texas v. Appalachian State OVER 65 | Top | 28-56 | Win | 100 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER With North Texas involved, it’s very difficult to imagine the Myrtle Beach Bowl NOT being high-scoring. The Mean Green give up over 500 yards and 41 points per game. Six of their nine regular season games went Over the total. It’s a tough bowl assignment here as they’re matched up against an Appalachian State team whose three losses came to teams (Louisiana, Coastal Carolina, Marshall) that are a combined 27-3 SU. The Mountaineers very much deserve to be the biggest favorite in all the bowls, but because they have the worst ATS record (2-9) of all the bowl teams, we can’t justify laying this number. Of course, North Texas hasn’t been very good at the betting window either (0-3 ATS L3), but what they are good at is offense. The Mean Green had the best passing attack in Conference USA and averaged over 35 points and 500 yards per game. But back to the defense, NT has given up a total of 140 points in its last three bowl appearances. Appalachian State will run for a lot of yards in this game, which will easily go Over. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
12-21-20 | Morehead State v. Clemson -23.5 | Top | 51-66 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 59 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CLEMSON Though it’s basketball, the final margin of victory this afternoon in Death Valley should be something reminiscent of the Clemson football team. Tigers’ hoops is coming off its 1st loss of the season, 66-60 at Virginia Tech last Tuesday. That was after starting the year not just 5-0 straight up, but also 5-0 against the spread. They’re matched up with Morehead State today and obviously the underdog has little, if any, chance in this one. Previous visits to Kentucky and Ohio State went really poorly for the Eagles as they lost to those respective opponents by 36 and 33 points. Clemson is better than both Kentucky and OSU. The Tigers already have four P5 wins, so they’re not playing a cupcake schedule. Even more impressive is that three of those four wins came by double digits. The only time Clemson got to face a non-P5 foe, they won 75-38 (South Carolina St) and we expect something along those lines here. Play on CLEMSON AAA |
|||||||
12-20-20 | Browns v. Giants OVER 45 | Top | 20-6 | Loss | -114 | 116 h 30 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER The Browns played a thriller Monday night, ultimately coming up short against Baltimore by a score of 47-42. It probably won’t be that high scoring again Sunday night, but we still like the Over vs. the Giants. The Browns have scored 83 points themselves the last two games, despite facing two probable playoff teams. So the fact the Giants have gone Under in four straight against winning teams and their last four overall doesn’t mean much to us, even if backup Colt McCoy is forced into a starting role again. Freddie Kitchens, the Browns former head coach, will be calling plays here for the G-Men. That’s interesting. He should know the opponent well. The Browns defense has given up 82 points the last two games. The Giants defense will be playing without its best cornerback, James Bradberry. The Browns are 4-0 Over the last four times they’ve been a road favorite. The Giants are on a 7-3 Over run after scoring 15 points or less their previous game. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
12-20-20 | Michigan State -6.5 v. Northwestern | Top | 65-79 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MICH ST Michigan State is 6-0 and ranked #4 in the country. But they actually haven’t covered a spread since their 75-69 “upset” of Duke on the 1st of the month. But this 3-game ATS losing streak is easier to swallow when you consider Sparty has been favored by at least 23 points in all three of those games. They’ve won by exactly 18 points their last two times out. Tonight the number is more manageable against Northwestern, who is 3-1 and hasn’t faced anything close to the challenge they’re up against here. The mood in Evanston is certainly “down” after yesterday’s loss in the Big 10 Championship Game by the football team. Don’t look for any kind of “pick me up” from Chris Collins team. Michigan State is averaging nearly 85 points/game and beat Northwestern by 29 in the last meeting. Big 10 play did not go well for Northwestern last season. They were just 3-17 SU. The Wildcats three wins this year came against Ark Pine Bluff, Chicago State and Quincy College. Eight Spartans scored at least nine points in the last game. Play on MICHIGAN STATE AAA |
|||||||
12-20-20 | Chiefs -2.5 v. Saints | Top | 32-29 | Win | 100 | 113 h 35 m | Show |
This is an 8* on KANSAS CITY Kansas City is the first team since the ‘86 Patriots to win five consecutive one score games while going 0-5 ATS. But this is the rare occasion where they are laying a short number. It comes in New Orleans against a Saints team that is off a shocking loss to the Eagles last week. Despite the 5-game ATS losing streak, Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes is still 19-11 ATS since the start of last season, the best cover percentage in the league during that time. He’s 30-18-1 ATS in his career (including playoffs). The Chiefs are also 41-21-1 ATS on the road since 2013. What we are saying is that you can lay the points with the confidence, even if Drew Brees returns for New Orleans. Kansas City has just one loss and should be regarded as the best team in the league right now. Can’t see them failing to cover for a sixth straight time. If not for an uncharacteristic four turnovers, they would have covered easily last week against Miami. The Chiefs are just better than the Saints right now. Play on KANSAS CITY AAA |
|||||||
12-20-20 | Jets +17 v. Rams | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 112 h 15 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NY JETS The Jets are very bad, but this is also a ton of points. It’s one of the highest spreads for any game this season. The Rams did just win by 21 here at home last week. But that was also their largest MOV this season. They’ve got only three wins this year by more than two touchdowns and, oddly enough, the other two were both on the road and early in the season. The Jets had been a lot more competitive before running into the Seahawks last week. Three of their previous four losses were by six points or fewer. As long as they are winless, they should stay motivated. No team of professionals wants to go winless for an entire regular season. This is the most points the Rams have been favored by in a game since the “Greatest Show on Turf” team of 2001. It won’t be pretty but the Jets will stay within three scores. Play on NY JETS AAA |
|||||||
12-20-20 | Eagles v. Cardinals -6 | Top | 26-33 | Win | 100 | 112 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ARIZONA Arizona got back on track last week with a 26-7 win against the Giants, our Game of the Week. For the second week in a row, the Cardinals are our top play. They host the Eagles this time. While Philadelphia pulled out a shocking 24-21 win against New Orleans, they still shouldn’t be taken very seriously with a rookie QB (Jalen Hurts). Arizona badly needs this game to improve its playoff chances. Philadelphia is just 1-5 ATS on the road this season. While all those games were with Carson Wentz at QB, we’re not buying Hurts as a big difference maker. The Eagles have not covered back to back games all year. The Arizona defense played really well last week and had eight sacks. Philadelphia has had 12 different starting offensive line combinations in the first 13 games, so good luck pass protecting in this one. We don’t see them having the same success running the ball that they did last week. The Eagles defense has really struggled against mobile QBs this year and Arizona’s Kyler Murray has rushed for 712 yards and 10 touchdowns this season. Play on ARIZONA AAA |
|||||||
12-20-20 | Texans v. Colts -7 | Top | 20-27 | Push | 0 | 109 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 9* on INDIANAPOLIS These teams met just two weeks ago with the Colts winning 26-20 in Houston. The game was decided when the Texans fumbled inside the 10-yard line in the closing minutes. While Indianapolis very much could have lost that first meeting, we like them to win the rematch - big - at home. They come into Week 15 tied with Tennessee for the AFC South lead. A win here and their playoff chances improve exponentially. Houston is 4-9 and has no shot of making the playoffs. An ugly 36-7 loss in Chicago last week indicates the Texans have pretty much “packed it in.” DeShaun Watson has been sacked 11 times the last two weeks, five of those coming against the Colts. Indianapolis is a team that is heavily respected by the oddsmakers. They’ve been an underdog only once all season. They are 8-2 ATS their past 10 games as a favorite. They’ve got a top ten offense and defense. The Texans are 6-14-1 ATS in December or later going back to 2016. They are also 1-6 ATS vs. teams with a winning record this season. The Colts have covered seven of their last eight games vs. the Texans and that trend should continue here in what shapes up as a real mismatch Sunday. Houston is 1-7 SU/2-6 ATS as an underdog this year. Play on INDIANAPOLIS AAA |
|||||||
12-20-20 | Seahawks -4 v. Washington Football Team | Top | 20-15 | Win | 100 | 109 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SEATTLE This is a big mismatch now that Dwayne Haskins has to start for Washington. There really is no debate that the Football Team got much better once Haskins was benched for Alex Smith. Now Smith is hurt at a most inopportune time. Haskins has to face one of the better teams in the league, one that just put up 40 points last week. There is no chance Washington is able to trade points in this one. The offense gained less than 200 total yards in last week’s 23-15 win against San Francisco. The Football Team is now vying to become the first team since Tampa Bay in 2016 to win four straight games, all as an underdog. Seems unlikely. The Seahawks defense has gotten much better since Jamal Adams came back. They’ve allowed 17 points or less three straight weeks. Play on SEATTLE AAA |
|||||||
12-20-20 | 49ers -3 v. Cowboys | Top | 33-41 | Loss | -102 | 109 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SAN FRANCISCO We like this price quite a bit on a 49ers team that is better than its record. They might be only 1-4 the last five games, but all four losses were to division leaders. They did beat a very good Rams team, on the road, 23-20. Dallas is not a good team. In fact, the Cowboys have a -102 point differential, a NFC worst. A 30-7 win last week over a Bengals team with a backup quarterback (Brandon Allen) didn’t alter our view of the ‘Boys at all. The previous two games saw them lose by a combined 42 points to Baltimore and Washington. Even after a decent effort last week, the Cowboys defense is still allowing 5.1 yards per rush, worst in football. So look for San Fran to run the ball effectively in this one. The 49ers are 12-3 ATS in games with a spread of five points or less going back to the beginning of last season. They’ve also covered three in a row as road favorites. No team has been worse at the betting window this year than Dallas, who is 3-10 ATS. Play on SAN FRANCISCO AAA |
|||||||
12-19-20 | Geoffrey Neal v. Stephen Thompson UNDER 4.5 | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 94 h 59 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER 4.5 ROUNDS Thompson, the #5 ranked welterweight in UFC, should very much be viewed as a “gatekeeper” at this stage of his UFC career. He’s still one of the division’s best, but has been unsuccessful in two previous title shots. Off a win against Vicente Luque, he’ll next face Neal, who is on a 5-0 run coming into this fight. Four of those five wins for Neal have been finishes including the last two. Both of these fighters are very accurate strikers. Thompson does the better job at avoiding punishment, but when he absorbs it, he’s the more likely to go down. The odds already flipped for this fight and could very well flip back in Thompson’s direction by the time these two hit the cage. Regardless, it will be an exciting fight where someone finishes the other. Take the Under here, which is set at 4.5 rounds. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
12-19-20 | Kristina Williams +110 v. Michel Pereira | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 93 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WILLIAMS Williams, 11-1 in his MMA career, has fought two times in the UFC. Those two fights have lasted a total of 57 seconds with him knocking out both opponents. Sounds like our type of fighter! Pereira is the next victim. While he did win by submission back in September, Pereira is too inconsistent of a fighter to trust in this spot. His penchant for shenanigans likely plays right into Williams’ hands (or hand as it may be). Quick wins are nothing new for Williams, even before he arrived on the scene in UFC. Three of his last four wins have come in 30 seconds or less! He has six career first round finishes, four of those coming in the last five fights. Play on WILLIAMS AAA |
|||||||
12-19-20 | Panthers v. Packers OVER 51 | Top | 16-24 | Loss | -108 | 92 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER At 4-9, Carolina has no shot at making the playoffs. But we can count on them to score. In four of the last five games, the Panthers have scored at least 23 points. The problem is they have LOST all four of those games. The one win in that five-game stretch was 20-0 over Detroit. Good luck here shutting out Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Green Bay has been playing at an elite level of late, scoring 30 or more in four consecutive contests. That shouldn’t be a surprise though. Rodgers and the GB offense are averaging 31.5 points/game for the season. Packers’ games are averaging more than 55 points total, which easily exceeds the OU for this matchup. Other than that shutout of the Lions, which should be viewed as an anomaly, the Panthers defense has permitted 25 or more points in every game since 10/25. In the last four losses (and you figure they are going to lose this week), they have given up 33, 46, 28 and 32 points. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
12-19-20 | Tulsa v. Cincinnati OVER 45 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 55 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER The American Athletic Conference Championship Game features two defenses that are giving up less than 20 points per game. However, we think you’re going to see plenty of points come Saturday night. Cincinnati has really gotten a “raw deal” from the playoff committee as the Bearcats should definitely be ranked higher than 9th considering they are 8-0. They average 40 points/game and will be looking to make a “statement” in front of a national TV audience Saturday night. Over the last five games, Cincy has scored 36, 55, 38, 49 and 42 points. An interesting thing with Tulsa is that they avoided a lot of the top offenses in the AAC. The only loss for the Golden Hurricane was to Oklahoma State, but that was not the Cowboys at full strength (they were using a backup QB). This is a really low total and we expect Cincinnati to score at least 30 in this game. These teams were supposed to play last week, but the Bearcats had to cancel due to COVID. Had that game been played, there would be a sense of familiarity. But it wasn’t played and thus that potential edge for the defenses is not there.Tulsa is going to score enough to make sure this one goes Over as they scored at least 28 against everyone besides Oklahoma State and Navy, their first and most recent games. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
12-19-20 | Rob Font v. Marlon Moraes -140 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -140 | 92 h 24 m | Show |
This is an 8* ON MORAES We look for Moraes to bounce back from his loss to Corey Sandhagen in October and reaffirm his status as one of the top bantamweights in the UFC. Moraes’ one issue, stamina, shouldn’t be so prevalent in a three-round fight as opposed to a five-round one. Sandhagen definitely “caught him” but losses such as that have been rare for Moraes. Font is fighting for the first time in a year and just the second time since the start of 2019. That level of inactivity isn’t good and while Font has won his last two fights - both by decision - he typically struggles against top-level competition. Moraes has fought the division’s best and should pick up the easy win here. Play on MORAES AAA |
|||||||
12-19-20 | Coppin State v. Virginia Tech -26.5 | Top | 57-97 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
This is an 8* on Va Tech After cashing a 38-point win last night, here’s another game on the College Basketball board that we feel will end up being not even remotely close. Va Tech can name the score Saturday as they host overmatched Coppin State. The Hokies just beat Clemson earlier this week, a nice bounce back from their only loss so far this season, which did come here in Blacksburg (to Penn State). Remember that Clemson is a top 25 team though, so that’s a really nice 66-60 win for Buzz Williams’ team. Coppin State is 1-5, their only win coming at home vs. UNC Greensboro. They lost by 17 at home to UMBC (remember them?) last time out - their 5th loss by double digits. This matchup ended up 74-42 (Va Tech, obviously) last year with the Hokies holding the Eagles below 20% shooting for the game. Should be more of the same today as Coppin State has looked REALLY bad thus far. Play on VIRGINIA TECH AAA |
|||||||
12-19-20 | Bills -6.5 v. Broncos | Top | 48-19 | Win | 100 | 89 h 42 m | Show |
This is an 8* on BUFFALO The Bills are definitely for real. That much we can say after they easily handled the Steelers Sunday. The 26-15 win improved Buffalo’s record to 10-3 and greatly increased their chances of winning the AFC East, something they have not done since Jim Kelly was their quarterback. Denver probably wishes Jim Kelly was their QB (more likely John Elway), but you get the picture. The Broncos simply are not on the Bills level. What really drives home the oddsmakers’ feeling towards Denver is the fact the Broncos are the only team in the league that hasn’t been favored in a single game all year. Give them credit for beating Carolina last week, 32-27, which improved their WL record to 5-8. But most of their wins have been against losing teams. Also, in six home games, the Broncos are averaging only 15.7 points/game. That simply will not cut it facing a Bills offense that has really hit its stride of late. Over the past five games, Buffalo is averaging 32.2 points/game. Their defense has allowed just 18.7 points/game the L3 weeks. Oh, by the way, Buffalo’s only loss in the last seven games came on a Hail Mary. Play on BUFFALO AAA |
|||||||
12-19-20 | Bayern Munich -143 v. Bayer Leverkusen | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 85 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BAYERN MUNICH It’s time for Bayern Munich to step up and show the rest of the Bundesliga “who’s boss.” They are still the presumed favorites to win the league, as they should be considering they’ve finished first every season going back to 2012-13. But it’s Leverkusen that is currently standing tall as the lone remaining unbeaten side in the German top flight. Obviously, no side has ever made it through an entire Bundesliga campaign without suffering at least one defeat. This looks like a likely spot for Leverkusen to suffer their first one. Despite their form, 10 wins in 11 matches across all competitions including 4-0 over Koln last weekend, they are underdogs here for a reason. Bayern Munich just handed Wolfsburg its first defeat of the season, now they look to make it 2 for 2 this week against unbeaten sides and reclaim first place in the Bundesliga. For those that don’t follow European soccer, Bayern Munich is widely regarded as the best club in all of Europe, not just the Bundesliga. They’ve scored 37 goals in 12 matches and have beaten Leverkusen four of the last five head to head. Play on BAYERN MUNICH AAA |
|||||||
12-19-20 | Northwestern v. Ohio State OVER 56.5 | Top | 10-22 | Loss | -109 | 47 h 16 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER Despite playing only five games, Ohio State is in the Big 10 Championship Game. We have no problem with the conference changing the rules “on the fly” as the Buckeyes are clearly the Big 10’s best team. Not surprisingly, they are huge favorites to beat 6-1 Northwestern. It will be the 14th time OSU has been favored by 20 or more under Ryan Day and they’ve previously gone 8-5 ATS. Only one of those games was decided by fewer than 11 points and it was the 42-35 win over Indiana earlier this year. But it’s still a lot of points to lay in a Conference Championship Game. What we are confident in here is the Buckeyes scoring lots of points. They are averaging 46.6 per game and the fewest they’ve scored in a game this year was 38. Northwestern has a pretty stout defense, however they’ve yet to face an offense this dynamic in 2020. Expect a final score in the neighborhood of 40-20 for this year’s Big 10 Title Game as Ohio State moves on to the College Football Playoff. The Over is 6-2 the last eight times N’western has been a neutral site underdog. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
12-19-20 | Oklahoma -5.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 27-21 | Win | 100 | 47 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 9* on OKLAHOMA Oklahoma is going for revenge in this year’s Big 12 Championship Game. One of their two regular season losses was to Iowa State, 37-30 back on October 3rd. That game was played in Ames and OU was a 7.5-point favorite. What’s notable is the Sooners haven’t lost since. They’ve won six in a row, the last five of which have all come by at least 13 points. OU led Iowa State by double digits (17-6) in the first half of the first meetings only to let the lead slip away at the end. They allowed two touchdown drives in the final eight minutes of the fourth quarter. At the time, it was their second blown lead in as many weeks (also Kansas State). There is no doubt Oklahoma is in a better place now and favorites have dominated these Power 5 Championship Games of late. Since 2015, the underdog has won just twice in 23 Championship Games. Iowa State has had a nice year, but they aren’t as good as OU. The revenge factor is big here. So we’ll lay the short number. Play on OKLAHOMA AAA |
|||||||
12-18-20 | Idaho v. Utah -22.5 | Top | 41-79 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UTAH Utah should easily handle its business Friday night against an Idaho team playing its fifth consecutive road game to start the season. The visiting Vandals have lost three of those four games by double digit margins and consider none of the previous opponents are as strong as the Utes. Utah’s only loss so far was to a good BYU team. They bounced back by beating Utah Valley State 75-67 on Tuesday. While they did not cover, they improved to 3-0 SU here at home and have scored at least 75 points in all three of those games. Idaho comes in averaging just 59.0 points/game. Don’t let Utah’s three-game ATS losing skid scare you. The Utes are 33-17 ATS when taking the court on an ATS losing skid of three games or more. In that last game, they led by 21 at the half. We don’t think they take their foot off the gas this time. The Utes’ have the 8th best turnover margin in the country right now. Idaho’s forecast is not bright as they were predicted to finish LAST in the Big Sky this season. Play on UTAH AAA |
|||||||
12-18-20 | Ball State v. Buffalo -13 | Top | 38-28 | Loss | -120 | 56 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BUFFALO Buffalo steamrolled its way to this MAC Championship Game, winning all five of its games by an average of 31.8 points! They are clearly the best team in their conference this year, a claim supported by the fact they are double digit favorites in Friday’s Championship Game against a Ball State team that is also on a five-game win streak. The only game Buffalo didn’t cover this year was against Bowling Green where they were 31-point favorites. They won that game 42-17 and were up bigger before allowing the backdoor cover. Going back to last season, the Bulls have covered seven of their last eight as favorites. RB Jaret Patterson went over 1000 yards rushing despite the team playing just five games. He’s only the 12th back in College Football history to go over 1000 yards in just five games. In addition to all that you’ve already read about them, Buffalo is 17-5 ATS its last 22 MAC games. They are the clear class of the conference this year and will punctuate this 2020 season with a decisive win in the Championship Game. Play on BUFFALO AAA |
|||||||
12-17-20 | Dixie State v. Southern Utah -10 | Top | 78-85 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SOUTHERN UTAH Yes, Dixie State is a Division I school. And they are off to a 3-0 start to the season! Two of those three wins (N Dakota, Denver) were by a total of four points though. We all know the transition to DI won’t be easy for the Trailblazers so now seems like a good time to step in and fade them. Southern Utah is a solid 4-1 so far, although two of their wins were by exactly one point (both vs. Montana). Their only loss was by two points at Loyola Marymount, the opener of the season. The Thunderbirds are 3 for 3 at home and coming off a 10-point win over Utah Valley State. SUU has covered all four of its lined games. It’s somewhat amazing Dixie State was able to beat Denver on Saturday considering they were on the wrong end of a big FT shooting discrepancy. A key to their 3-0 record is their opponents have shot just 21.2% from three. That’s abnormally low. Southern Utah will do better. Much better. Play on SOUTHERN UTAH AAA |
|||||||
12-17-20 | Chargers +3.5 v. Raiders | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 45 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LA CHARGERS The Chargers finally won a close one on Sunday, beating the Falcons 20-17 as a one-point favorite. While they are only 4-9 on the year, LA has played much better than their record shows. They had a bad game two weeks ago vs. New England, but seven of their other eight losses have come in one score games. This Thursday night matchup vs. Las Vegas reminds us of how we handicapped the Monday night game between Baltimore and Cleveland. Our view of MNF was that despite the inferior won-loss record, the Ravens were the better team, an assertion backed up by various metrics. The same holds true here. Las Vegas may be 7-6, but they’ve actually been outscored by 41 points. Losers of three of their last four, the Raiders are clearly heading in the wrong direction down the home stretch. The only win in those last four games was a miracle against the winless Jets. The fact the Raiders have been favored only four times prior to this game shows that they’ve overachieved. The defense has been torched for 150 points in those last four games. Chargers QB Justin Herbert should have a big night here. Los Angeles is 8-4 ATS its last 12 Thursday games. Play on LOS ANGELES AAA |
|||||||
12-17-20 | Houston Baptist v. North Texas -23.5 | Top | 55-85 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NORTH TEXAS North Texas is a big favorite Thursday. But for good reason as they are matched up against a subpar Houston Baptist team that figures to have all sorts of trouble keeping up here in Denton. Houston Baptist has actually done a decent job at covering the spread to this point. They are 4-1 ATS but were +28 or more in three of those games. Their only SU win this year was vs. Champion Baptist. All their losses have been by double digits, four of them by at least 22 points. This will be the second road game in three days after giving up 90 to Rice on Tuesday. The Huskies have also given up 100+ to both Arizona State and SMU. North Texas may not be as good as either of those squads, but the Mean Green are coming off an 81-56 win over Arkansas Pine Bluff. They’ve covered 7 of 10 as home favorites of 12.5 or more. They are 2-0 at home this season and the two wins have been by 54 and 25 points. Play on NORTH TEXAS AAA |
|||||||
12-17-20 | Kansas v. Texas Tech OVER 132.5 | Top | 58-57 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER Considering Texas Tech’s defensive prowess, going Over might seem like a “play at your own risk” type situation. But a) the total is low here and b) Kansas can score. The Jayhawks have faced a lot of top teams already and are averaging 81.6 points/game. They are shooting nearly 40% from three! Last time out they went for 95 points. Yes, that was against a terrible Omaha team. But it was also the 4th game of 90 or more points for Kansas this season. We don’t need nearly that many for an Over tonight. Texas Tech has scored 80 or more in four of its seven games. Again, you’ve got to factor in the competition. But asking both Kansas and Tech to score 65 tonight doesn’t seem like it’s asking for much. Kansas likes to play fast, so it will be interesting if they can push the tempo. We think they will - at least enough to have an effect on the scoring. The Over is 6-2 the last eight times Kansas has been an underdog and 7-1 their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record. Texas Tech has that same record against .500 or better foes. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
12-16-20 | Toledo v. Marshall -6.5 | Top | 96-87 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 35 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MARSHALL Marshall (4-0) looks to stay unbeaten as Toledo pays a visit to Huntington Wednesday night. We like the home team’s chances as they’ve won all four games by double digits. Toledo has three losses and was beaten by 20 in their last road game. The other two losses were close, but the Rockets have lost both times they were an underdog. There will be no shortage of motivation from the Marshall side as the Thundering Herd have lost three straight times to Toledo. This triple revenge spot begs you to lay the points and we will as the Herd have allowed just 38.5% shooting thus far. They play at a very fast tempo, which will be too much for Toledo to deal with. This was the preseason favorite to win Conference USA, so they are not to be taken lightly. Lay it! Play on MARSHALL AAA |
|||||||
12-16-20 | Nebraska-Omaha v. Colorado -21 | Top | 49-91 | Win | 100 | 18 h 35 m | Show |
This is an 8* on COLORADO For the second time in three days, we’ll lay the points with Colorado. The Buffs easily covered for us Monday in an 81-45 win against Northern Colorado. They were 13.5-point favorites in that game. They’re even bigger favorites today, but of course that means it’s a weaker opponent as well. Omaha has failed to cover five straight and their only SU win during that time came by two against SIU Edwardsville. The other four games were all double digit losses, the most recent coming Friday when they fell by 45 at Kansas. Colorado isn’t Kansas, but they certainly can win this game by half that margin. It helps that Omaha is 3-8 ATS as a road underdog of more than 12.5 points and 0-3 when getting 18.5 to 24. Colorado’s three wins this season have come by an average of 25.7 points. They are 10th in the country, allowing just 55 points/game. Omaha has yet to score more than 67 in a game this year and their losses have come by an average of more than 22 points/game. Colorado’s lone defeat came at the hands of Top 25 Tennessee. Omaha is not even close to the caliber of Tennessee, obviously. Play on COLORADO AAA |
|||||||
12-15-20 | SE Missouri State v. Evansville -2.5 | Top | 63-66 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 9* on EVANSVILLE Two teams that have played a lot of close games thus far will face off tonight in Evansville. The host Purple Aces are looking to make it two in a row at home and they just defeated Eastern Illinois here, 68-65, as a 3.5-point underdog. Before that, they’d lost by 6 at Tenn-Martin (as a 4-point favorite) and Prairie View A&M by three (as a 2.5-pt dog). They’ve also been blown out by Louisville. So it was their first win last Wednesday. The last thing the Purple Aces want is another loss. SE Missouri State is coming off a home and home split with Lipscomb. They covered both games. Every Redhawks game thus far has been decided by eight points or less with the team’s record being 2-2 straight up (and 3-1 against the spread). Key for us is that Evansville has seen its shooting improve every game. SE Missouri State does not defend particularly well, so the Purple Aces are likely in store for their best shooting night of the season so far. Interesting that SE Missouri State has been an underdog in all four of its games. Can’t see a third upset in five games. Play on EVANSVILLE AAA |
|||||||
12-14-20 | Northern Colorado v. Colorado -13.5 | Top | 45-81 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
This is an 8* on COLORADO Northern Colorado may be 2-0, but we’d hardly call the likes of Colorado Christian and Regis (MA) “competition.” Here they are going up against the class of the Rocky Mountain State, Colorado, who will be angry coming off an ugly 56-47 loss at Tennessee last week. The Buffaloes were just plain “off” in Knoxville as they finished with a 33.3 field goal percentage. They missed 17 of 22 threes. It must be acknowledged though that Tennessee was the #12 ranked team in the country when that game was played. Just like the step up in class here for Northern Colorado, the step down for Colorado is just as big. The Buffs won their first two games by a combined 35 points and we should be looking at a similar margin here tonight in Boulder where they are 29-6 L35 games. This will be their first home game of the season as well. This one should get ugly in a hurry. Play on COLORADO AAA |
|||||||
12-14-20 | Ravens -2.5 v. Browns | Top | 47-42 | Win | 100 | 36 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BALTIMORE Cleveland is 9-3. Baltimore is 7-5. But make no mistake about it. Baltimore is better. The Ravens have outscored their 12 opponents by 85 points this season, tied for the 5th best differential in the league. The Browns have been OUTSCORED in their 12 games, despite their record and a 4-game win streak. When these AFC North rivals met back in Week 1, Baltimore won handily 38-6. It’s probably also worth noting that Cleveland failed its other AFC North test, losing to Pittsburgh 38-7. So they haven’t really been able to “get it done” against the league’s elite. The keys for the Browns this season have been winning close (6-0 in one-score games) and beating bad teams. Three of the four teams they’ve beaten during this win streak were Houston, Philadelphia and Jacksonville, all of whom are sub-.500. Even when they jumped up big on Tennessee last week, they had to hold on for a 41-35 win. The Ravens looked like their old selves in a 34-17 win over Dallas on Tuesday, running for nearly 300 yards. They are now 6-0 ATS their L6 December games. The Browns are 1-10-1 ATS their past 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Ravens are 4-2 on the road this year, not to mention 14-6 ATS L20. Play on BALTIMORE AAA |
|||||||
12-14-20 | William & Mary v. George Washington UNDER 148 | Top | 85-84 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER William & Mary has played just one game so far and it was an 86-78 loss to old Colonial rival Old Dominion. The Tribe will now face the Colonials, although again not a conference rival, in George Washington Monday. GW is just 1-4 with the lone win coming against Coppin State. The other four games, losses to Navy, Hampton, UMBC and Delaware, have seen them give up lots of points. Truthfully, it’s been a terrible start for the Colonials. We would never lay points with them, at least right now, but do think the defense is going to improve. Honestly, they haven’t been that bad at the defensive end of the floor, save for the game where they got blitzed by UMBC. Three of the last four opponents have shot less than 41%. William & Mary won’t shoot 50% again like they did vs. ODU. This game was supposed to be played on December 5th, but got rescheduled because of COVID. It’s the first meeting in 17 years between the two Virginia schools. It’ll end up lower-scoring than expected. W&M is 5-1 Under as a road dog of 6.5 to 9 points. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
12-14-20 | Cadiz CF v. Celta de Vigo -122 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 73 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CELTA VIGO Celta Vigo could really use the three points here. While they’ve won two straight, the Sky Blues are still only two points clear of the relegation zone. They play host to Cadiz Monday afternoon. Cadiz is sitting 6th in the table after shocking Barcelona last week. They’ve picked up 18 points from their 12 La Liga matches. But it’s pretty telling Celta Vigo is the favored side Monday. Cadiz being 6th in the table is certainly surprising and they’ve got a -2 goal differential. They’ve scored only 11 goals this campaign, which is actually the third lowest total in all of La Liga. A 3-1 victory over Granada and 2-0 victory over Athletic Bilbao have us liking Celta Vigo in this one. Cadiz’s recent form isn’t as sharp as they’ve got just one win in their last four matches and two in their last six. Play on CELTA VIGO AAA |
|||||||
12-13-20 | Steelers +2.5 v. Bills | Top | 15-26 | Loss | -100 | 104 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 9* on PITTSBURGH This line appears to be a bit of an overreaction towards the events of last Monday when the Steelers suffered their first loss of the season and the Bills beat down the 49ers 34-24. Sure enough, the original line for this matchup had Pittsburgh favored by a few points on the road. Now it’s swung in the other direction and we see value on a team that has lost ONLY ONCE this season. We know Pittsburgh hasn’t really looked impressive its last couple games, but remember that both were moved due to Baltimore’s COVID drama. While Buffalo’s offense has looked very good recently, the Steelers’ defense remains one of the best in the league as it is permitting just 17.6 points per game. While Pittsburgh did blow a 14-0 lead against Washington last week, that was more on the offense, which could not score a TD despite five chances from the 1-yard line. If they score there, the Steelers are still undefeated. There were two drives that ended with the Pittsburgh offense turning it over on downs inside the Washington 30-yard line. Mike Tomlin is 17-5 ATS as a road underdog facing a team with a winning record. Play on PITTSBURGH AAA |
|||||||
12-13-20 | Saints v. Eagles UNDER 44.5 | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 100 h 37 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the UNDER The Saints have gone Under in their last five games. The Eagles have gone Under in their last six games. The total for this game being so low should not be a surprise then, especially because Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts will be making his first NFL start against a defense that has given up a total of just 44 points in its last five games. That New Orleans defense is 1st in the league in yards allowed, 2nd against the run, 4th against the pass and 4th in scoring. They also have the 3rd most sacks while forcing the 7th most turnovers. The Eagles have not scored more than 17 points in any of the last four games and stand little chance of doing so here. Over those last five games, the Saints’ D has allowed just two touchdowns and one was in garbage time last week vs. Atlanta. Remember that Taysom Hill is still the Saints starting QB, so they won’t be putting up a lot of points either. They can simply rely on the run game in what should be an easy victory that won’t require many points. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
12-13-20 | Colts v. Raiders OVER 51.5 | Top | 44-27 | Win | 100 | 99 h 17 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER Indianapolis should put up a lot of points here against a Raiders defense that has allowed 35, 43 and 28 points the last three weeks. While the 28 points allowed last week were the fewest of the three games, Las Vegas was facing the winless Jets and nearly lost that game. The Colts have scored at least 26 points in four straight games and Baltimore is the only team to hold them below that number in the last seven games. The good news for Las Vegas is they’ve scored 31 or more in four of their last five games. So this should turn into a shootout Sunday in Sin City. The Colts defense had been really strong in the early part of the season, but injuries have started to take their toll. The last three games have seen them allow an average of 32 points. The Over is 9-3 in Raiders’ games this season, the second highest such percentage in the league. So high-scoring games are nothing new to them. Same with the Colts, who are 6-2 Over their last eight games. Both teams could easily go for 30+ here. The Raiders are on a 6-0-1 Over run as home dogs. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
12-13-20 | Cardinals -2 v. Giants | Top | 26-7 | Win | 100 | 96 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ARIZONA If not for the “Hail Murray” vs. Buffalo, Arizona would be on a five-game losing streak entering this week. They are 0-5 ATS those L5 games. It’s been a real “fall from grace” for a team that started the year 5-2. The Giants, now 5-7 on the season, are trending in the other direction. They’ve won four in a row with their defense holding all four opponents to 20 points or less. But despite the recent form of these two teams, we’re backing the Cardinals on Sunday. Colt McCoy may have to start again for the G-Men. While that shockingly worked out in Seattle last week, we don’t see that kind of success sustaining itself. If he does come back, Daniel Jones isn’t that great either. The Giants’ offense has only scored 36 points the last two games. Give them credit for that win up in Seattle, but before that it was a really favorable stretch of games. They were off a bye when they faced Cincinnati without Joe Burrow, but won that game by only two points. Arizona is still the better team here and we’ll lay the short number. The Giants’ special teams have given up a punt return and a safety the last two weeks. New York has had success as a dog this season, but is still just 3-12 ATS as a home dog the past three seasons. Play on ARIZONA AAA |
|||||||
12-13-20 | Vikings v. Bucs -6.5 | Top | 14-26 | Win | 100 | 96 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TAMPA BAY Good situation this week for Tampa Bay to pick up a win. For starters, they are coming off a bye. Getting their bye so late in the season may prove advantageous for the stretch run. Perhaps they were running on fumes when they lost to the Rams and Chiefs by identical 27-24 scores in their last two games. Maybe it was a case of facing two really good teams. Whatever the reason, we don’t see the Bucs losing three in a row at home. While they’ve struggled against top teams in the league like the Saints, Rams and Chiefs, Tampa Bay has done well against everyone else. Minnesota is on a 5-1 surge, but their last four wins have been against Detroit, Chicago, Carolina and Jacksonville and most of those games were close. Remember they lost at home to Dallas. The most impressive win, over Green Bay, came after a bye. Tough matchup for Vikings RB Dalvin Cook this week as he faces the league’s top ranked run defense, which is allowing just 74 yards per game. Tom Brady is an incredible 46-19 ATS after a SU loss including 4-0 with the Bucs. The Vikings young secondary is likely to struggle against the Tampa receivers. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA |
|||||||
12-12-20 | Stanford -2.5 v. Oregon State | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 22 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Oregon State has put together four straight ATS wins, all one score games. One of them was an upset over rival Oregon. Last week they played without their star running back and still stayed within six of Utah - as 14-point underdogs. The Beavers have been double digit dogs in three of those wins.They are underdogs again this week, although not by double digits, to a Stanford team they’ve lost to 10 straight times. The Cardinal are coming off a big win against Washington last week, their second victory in a row after opening 0-2. RB Jefferson is going to return this week for the Beavers, but they have a backup QB and that makes the offense one-dimensional and easier to prepare for. Stanford has four injured players, two of them wide receivers. This game was going to take place in Palo Alto, but had to be moved to Corvallis due to COVID protocols in California. This will be a relatively low-scoring game. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
12-12-20 | Renato Moicano v. Rafael Fiziev -147 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 58 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* on FIZIEV Get ready for a battle of lightweights. Moicano comes in at 14-3 after a successful debut at 155 lbs. It took him just 44 seconds to submit Damir Hadzovic back in March. But let’s not forget about the unceremonious end to his run at featherweight. Consecutive knockout losses in 2019 had many questioning Moicano’s future. His lone hope here vs. Fiziev is to get the fight on the mat. Because when it comes to striking, Fiziev has the clear edge. While Fiziev lost his UFC debut back in April of last year, he’s since rebounded to scratch out decision victories over Alex White and Marc Diakese. He’s got just the one loss in his career (8-1) and of these two fighters, Fiziev is the one with more upside. With a Muay Thai background, this is a good matchup for the favorite. Play on FIZIEV AAA |
|||||||
12-12-20 | USC v. UCLA +3.5 | Top | 43-38 | Loss | -118 | 102 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 9* on UCLA Southern Cal looked especially good on Sunday (we had them!) as a big passing day from QB Slovis (5 TD passes!) allowed them to overwhelm Washington State 38-13. A win this week, against a UCLA team they’ve now been favored against 18 of the last 19 seasons, sends the Trojans through to the Pac 12 Championship. But this game is a lot more tricky than it seems. USC is playing on short rest. UCLA is 3-2 with both losses occurring on the road in one-possession games. The Bruins are 4-0 ATS the last four games and the only straight up loss they’ve suffered during that time was by three at Oregon, a game which they outgained the opponent only to be undone by four turnovers. The Bruins come into Saturday as winners of two in a row, having beaten Arizona and Arizona State. USC could not run the ball last week, gaining just 5 yards on the ground, and we don’t expect them to have much success in that department this week either. Home team is 12-5 ATS the last 17 meetings and USC is just 1-5-1 ATS its last seven as a road favorite. Play on UCLA AAA |
|||||||
12-12-20 | Houston v. Memphis +4.5 | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 98 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MEMPHIS The start time for this game was bumped back a few hours, but we assure you things will be worth the wait as Memphis looks to upset Houston. Memphis getting points at the Liberty Bowl is not something you’ll see very often. There’s a reason for that. They’ve won 14 straight home games, a win streak that stretches back to October 2018. The Tigers last home loss was by one point to a UCF team that finished the regular season 12-0. While not as good as they were last season, Memphis is still 5-0 at home where they are averaging 43.9 points and giving up only 29.8. They beat UCF here earlier this season. They’ve defeated Houston four years in a row, scoring at least 42 points in all four wins. Houston has never really been able to get on track in 2020 due to COVID-19 and contact tracing. They’ve played only six games with the most recent being over a month ago. This is a tough ask to lay points on the road against a team that’s been so dominant on its home field. The Cougars are 4-10 ATS as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points, losing eight of those games outright. They are also 0-3 SU and ATS the L3 times playing with 2 or more weeks rest. Play on MEMPHIS AAA |
|||||||
12-12-20 | Coastal Carolina -12.5 v. Troy | Top | 42-38 | Loss | -110 | 97 h 2 m | Show |
This is an 8* on COASTAL CAROLINA For Coastal Carolina, the plan for last week was always to “make a statement.” At first they thought it would be at the expense of Liberty, a fellow non-P5 school with an excellent record. But when Liberty had to bail due to COVID, undefeated BYU stepped up and took their place. Few gave the Chanticleers a chance on such short notice (they were 10.5-point underdogs), but all they ended up doing was pull off the biggest win in school history, defeating BYU 22-17. Now 10-0, Coastal Carolina looks to finish the regular season undefeated by winning at Troy. The Sun Belt Championship Game (vs. Louisiana) awaits the Chanticleers next weekend. But don’t expect any kind of “look ahead” given that CC is looking to stay undefeated. Troy, who may be without their starting QB, simply doesn’t score enough to keep pace with a team like the Chanticleers. Before shutting out South Alabama 29-0 last week, the Trojans had scored just 13, 17 and 10 points their previous three games, all losses. Coastal Carolina is winning by an average of almost three touchdowns per game this season. Play on COASTAL CAROLINA AAA |
|||||||
12-12-20 | Florida v. Florida State -2.5 | Top | 71-83 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
This is an 8* on FLORIDA STATE It’s Florida and Florida State starting your Saturday in College Basketball. The two Sunshine State rivals have combined to go 5-0 thus far. Florida (3-0) has not been seriously tested while FSU did just defeat Indiana 69-67 here in Tallahassee, as part of the Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge. The Seminoles won that game despite poor shooting, but their defense stepped up to hold IU to 36% from the field. In Florida’s last game, their opponent shot just 19.6%! But that was Stetson, not Florida State, who comes in as the #20 ranked team in the country. The ‘Noles are looking for a 7th straight win over the Gators. The previous six have been by an average of 10 points. So we’ll gladly lay the short number in this one. FSU does a great job on the glass, collecting 18 offensive rebounds per game and they are 6th in the country in offensive rebound percentage. Play on FLORIDA STATE AAA |
|||||||
12-11-20 | Nevada v. San Jose State -2.5 | Top | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 80 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SAN JOSE STATE The number of unbeaten teams across College Football has dwindled down to nine with five of those teams having played five or less games. San Jose State is one of the big surprises on that list. Last week the Spartans were supposed to host Hawaii but were instead forced to head out to Honolulu. They won anyway, 35-24, to improve to 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS. Once again they’ve “lost” a home game this week as they’ll face Nevada in Las Vegas (at least it’s not Reno) at Sam Boyd Stadium. Still we expect this nice story to continue with SJSU picking up another victory. Nevada was lucky to defeat Fresno State 37-26 last week as the defense gave up almost 600 yards! Turnovers really bailed them out, but that’s not a reliable blueprint for success. San Jose State has a pretty good defense and the team is 14-5 ATS its last 19 Mountain West games. Play on SAN JOSE STATE AAA |
|||||||
12-11-20 | Georgia Southern v. Davidson -14.5 | Top | 45-77 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DAVIDSON We don’t envision Davidson having much trouble in this non-conference home game. The Wildcats have actually owned Georgia Southern through the years, posting an 18-7 ATS head to head mark, which includes 9-2 at home. Georgia Southern comes into Friday still sporting an unblemished won-loss record (3-0), but they haven’t played anybody of note and almost lost to USC Upstate last week. Davidson is 2-2 but those two losses were by a combined three points and on a neutral court to Texas and Providence. The Wildcats beat UNLV in their last game and have had more than a week off to prepare for this first home game in nearly three weeks. That USC Upstate team that Georgia Southern barely beat is 0-4. Yet they led the Eagles by as many as nine points in the second half. The game was decided on a three-point play in the final second. Lay the points with confidence in this one. Play on DAVIDSON AAA |
|||||||
12-11-20 | UTEP v. North Texas UNDER 63 | Top | 43-45 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER While North Texas is technically the “road team” for this game, it is being played at Apogee Stadium in Denton, which is their home. This matchup was originally going to take place on October 31st in El Paso before having to be rescheduled. North Texas has been fortunate in that this is the seventh time in nine games they’ve gotten to play at home. But they haven’t taken advantage, going just 2-4 in Denton. It’s been a rough last two weeks for the Mean Green as they’ve scored just 48 total points while giving up 40+ in a pair of losses. But we look for the defense to get a reprieve this week against a rusty UTEP offense that has not taken the field in four weeks. It’s not as if the Miners were doing much offensively before COVID wreaked havoc on their schedule. They come in averaging only 20.1 points/game. The UTEP defense has done a pretty good job at stopping the run though and that is critical when facing this North Texas offense. We see this ending up as a surprisingly low-scoring affair. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
12-11-20 | St. John's v. Seton Hall -5.5 | Top | 68-77 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 9* on SETON HALL Big East play commences Friday with Seton Hall hosting St. John’s. The hosts are 3-3 on the year and coming off an easy 33-point win against Wagner. They lost by 1 at Louisville in the first game of the season. Both home games have been blowouts as they also beat Iona by 22. St. John’s is a more difficult opponent compared to Wagner and Iona, however the Red Storm seem to be getting a bit too much respect from the oddsmakers and bettors for this conference road game. The Red Storm could barely beat Rider at home three days ago (won by only three) and have two other victories so far by four points or less. So while 5-1, the Johnnies could easily have a worse record right now. Seton Hall has dominated this Big East rivalry when hosting, going 14-2 SU and 13-3 ATS. They swept the season series last year, which included a 16-point win at home. They’ve won 8 of 10 overall against St. John’s and played a harder non-conference schedule. St. John’s was only 5-13 in Big East play last season. Play on SETON HALL AAA |
|||||||
12-10-20 | Long Beach State v. San Francisco -16 | Top | 62-107 | Win | 100 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SAN FRANCISCO With the NCAA Tournament being cancelled in March, one of the teams you felt for the most was San Francisco. The Dons had a breakout season in 2019-20, going 22-12 and there was a decent shot they were going to get an at-large bid. Keep in mind this program has been to the Big Dance just ONE time since 1982 and that was in 1998. This year, the Dons already have two losses, one of them a real “head-scratcher” to UMass-Lowell in the first game of the season. But they’ve also shown what they are capable of by beating then #4 Virginia on a neutral floor. The Dons have had a few extra days off to prepare here as Sunday’s game vs. Nevada was cancelled because of COVID. We ran with Long Beach State on Sunday and they covered against Seattle, but that was a much weaker opponent. The 49ers have really struggled shooting the ball in their first two games and were blown out by another WCC team (Loyola Marymount) in their first game (lost by 24). San Francisco is a better team than Loyola Marymount. Play on SAN FRANCISCO AAA |
|||||||
12-10-20 | Patriots v. Rams -5 | Top | 3-24 | Win | 100 | 30 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LA RAMS As we learned (the hard way) on Sunday, this Rams team is pretty good. They went into Arizona and beat the Cardinals 38-28. But really it wasn’t even that close as the Rams put up 463 total yards while allowing just 232. In terms of outgaining opponents on a per play basis, Los Angeles is one of the best teams in the league. They are now 8-4, tied with Seattle atop the NFC West standings. We like them to handle their business here against the Patriots. The Rams’ defense has allowed an average of just 15.0 points in five home games. No team has been stingier at home this season. While New England is off a 45-0 win against the Chargers, that point total was greatly aided by two special teams touchdowns. The Patriots offense is averaging only 235 yards the last two weeks despite winning both games. You may remember that the Rams beat the Patriots in the Super Bowl back in 2002. Well, they have not beaten them since, losing five straight times! That streak is put to bed here as the home team shows off its superiority Thursday night. Play on LA RAMS AAA |
|||||||
12-10-20 | Pittsburgh -6.5 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 34-20 | Win | 100 | 54 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PITT Pittsburgh (5-5) looks to wrap up the regular season with an above-.500 record as they play at Georgia Tech Thursday night. This should be a big offensive night for the Panthers as QB Kenny Pickett is back in the fold and will be facing a defense that’s giving up an ugly 42.6 points at home this year. With Pickett in the starting lineup, the Panthers are 5-3 this season. One of those losses was to Clemson two weeks ago. The other two were by a combined two points. So far Pickett has thrown for more than 2200 yards with 12 TD passes. Half of his interceptions came against Clemson. He’s completing 62% of his passes. Georgia Tech, who will wrap up its season next week in Miami, is a pretty lousy 3-6 after losing by 10 at NC State Saturday. The Yellow Jackets have been remarkably inconsistent in 2020 and there’s no reason to believe they’ll “show up” here. The offense has a horrible turnover problem and it should be “tough sledding” against a Pitt defense that’s allowing only 2.8 yards/rush and leads the country in sacks. As a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points, Pitt is 6-3 SU and ATS its L9. As an underdog of 3.5 to 10 pts, Ga Tech is 1-7 SU and ATS L8. Play on PITTSBURGH AAA |
|||||||
12-09-20 | SE Missouri State v. Lipscomb -6.5 | Top | 74-80 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LIPSCOMB Lipscomb is looking to snap a four-game losing skid on Wednesday as it hosts SE Missouri State. In an interesting twist, these teams just played Monday. SE Missouri State won 82-77 as a 4-point home underdog despite Lipscomb shooting an impressive 55% from the field. One might think the Bisons could be in some trouble here given how hard it is to duplicate that kind of shooting. But we don’t see them taking 11 fewer shots than SE Missouri State again. This is Lipscomb’s first home game so a 1-4 start really isn’t that concerning. Two of the losses were close and the other two were at Cincinnati and Arkansas. It’s tough to beat the same opponent twice in a row and it’s not as if SE Missouri State is a good team. This will be the 4th straight game they’re underdogs and we see some value here as Lipscomb went off as the favorite, on the road, in that first meeting. Expect a double digit win by the home team Wednesday. Play on LIPSCOMB AAA |