Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-18-22 | Orioles +1.5 v. Blue Jays | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 44 m | Show | |
8* ORIOLES RUNLINE (SPECIAL) I think the Orioles have a legitimate shot at winning this game outright. However, the runline option at this price is just too good to turn down in the end in my opinion. Toronto has an 8-7 series lead, but Baltimore will be looking to even things out here. The home side sends Alek Manoah (14-7, 2.43 ERA) to the hill, while the visitors counter with Dean Kremer (7-5, 3.34.) Manoah has enjoyed success against the Orioles, while Kremer has struggled against the Jays. But that was then, and this is now. I look for Kremer to step up here and match his counterpart in this important game. The Orioles are 7-3 in their last ten in trying to avenge two straight losses against an opponent as well. The play is Baltimore on the runline! AAA Sports |
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09-18-22 | Dolphins +3.5 v. Ravens | 42-38 | Win | 100 | 23 h 55 m | Show | |
8* DOLPHINS (BLOOD-BATH) Both teams won. Both teams didn't look fantastic. I'd argue though that the Dolphins win at home over the Patriots is more impressive than the Ravens victory over the Jets. Tua Tagovailo had 270 passing yards and a TD, but the Dolphins looks great defensively, holding the Pats to just seven points and forcing three turnovers. The Ravens looked decent defensively, but that was against Joe Flacco and the Jets! Lamar Jackson did have 313 passing yards, three touchdowns and an interception, but he completed just 56 percent of his passes. The Ravens are just 1-4 ATS in their last five after allowing 15 points or less in their last game, while Miami is 5-1 ATS in its last six September games. While I do think the outright win is possible, let's grab the points; the play is the Dolphins! AAA Sports |
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09-18-22 | Washington Commanders +1.5 v. Lions | 27-36 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 1 m | Show | |
8* WASHINGTON (SPECIAL) The Commanders pulled away for the 28-22 home win and cover over the Jaguars last weekend and I think they can keep that positive momentum rolling here. Detroit fought tooth and nail with the Eagles, but fell 38-35, only managing to earn the cover with the six points they were afforded. Carson Wentz finished with 316 passing yards, four TD's and two INT's. Five different Washington receivers had over 40 yards. Jared Goff had 215 passing yards, two touchdowns and an INT in the Lions' Week 1 loss. Goff was decent, but the defense was a disaster. It's the biggest question mark here headed into this game and it's one that I believe that Wentz and the visiting side can take advantage of. The Eagles' secondary is a mess, so let's not read too much into Detroit's production. Washington's defense is a step up here and I think that Wentz is the best QB on the field of play. While the outright win is possible, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can; the play is Washington! AAA Sports |
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09-17-22 | Fresno State v. USC UNDER 72 | Top | 17-45 | Win | 100 | 111 h 10 m | Show |
10* UNDER FRESNO STATE/USC (NON-CONF TOY) USC is 2-0 SU/ATS after smoking Rice 66-14 and Stanford by a score of 41-28. With a date at Oregon State next weekend, followed by the heart of the PAC 12 schedule, I am expect this high-powered Trojans offense to go up early, and then to take the foot off the gas in the second half. Fresno State is 0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS. It fell 35-32 at home to Oregon State last weekend as a 1-point favorite. USC hasn't won at Stanford in almost a decade, so last weekend's victory was an emotional one. Can anyone say letdown spot here?! This season the average total for USC contests is 63.3 points, 7.7 less than the over/under of this particular contest. The over/under for this game is 10.2 points more than the average over/under in Fresno State games this season (60.8 points) as well. I base my selections on many different things, but taking a "situational approach" when it comes to my totals is one of many different tactics that we employ over the course of the season. This one sets up great from a situational stand point, as we believe this O/U line to be a few points too high; the play is the under! AAA Sports |
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09-17-22 | San Diego State +21.5 v. Utah | 7-35 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 1 m | Show | |
8* SDSU (SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION) I'm not calling for the outright obviously, but I do definitely expect Utah to take the foot off the gas in the second half of this one. Both teams are 1-1 SU. SDSU is 0-2 ATS and Utah is 1-1 ATS. The Aztecs lost 38-20 to Arizona in Week 1 and then they beat Idaho State by a score of 38-7, unable to cover the large 34-point spread. But now SDSU is the big underdog in this matchup. Utah lost 29-26 at Florida as a 2.5-point favorite, and then took its frustrations out on Southern Utah in last week's 73-7 destruction. With a game at Arizona State next weekend though and the start of conference action for real, this sets up as a bit of a trap game for the home side. The Aztecs are a run first team. Last week they had 488 total yards. SDSU's defense bounced back after a poor showing in its opener as well. It's difficult to rate Utah quite yet, as it looked pretty pedestrian in the Week 1 loss, and then who knows with last week's blowout victory. Utah though is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following a SU victory of 20 or more points, while SDSU is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 non-conference games and 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 following an ATS loss. Utah will win this game, and avenge last year's loss to SDSU, but I expect it to be much closer than what this large spread would indicate. As I said off the top, no outright upset or anything this year, but expect a battle until the end; the play is SDSU! AAA Sports |
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09-17-22 | Miami-FL v. Texas A&M -6 | 9-17 | Win | 100 | 14 h 23 m | Show | |
8* TEXAS A&M (ATS BLOOD-BATH) Miami has outscored its first two opponents by a score of 100-20. Texas A&M is 1-1 after a shocking loss at home to Appalachian State last weekend. I say the Aggies bounce back here though. They were 18-point or so favorites in that contest! Miami beat Southern Miss in its last outing. Note though that this is the Hurricanes' first road game this season and they went just 2-2 away from friendly confines last year. Tyler VanDyke was a standout last week with 261 yards passing and a TD. A&M did indeed lose 17-14 to App State last week. QB Haynes King only had 97 passing yards, no TD's and no INT's, one week after passing for 364 yards in the season opener. The Aggies though have done very well in this spot, as they're 4-1 ATS in their last five vs. teams with winning records, 15-5 ATS in their last 20 non-conference contests and 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. the ACC. Miami on the other hand is a dismal 1-7 ATS in its last eight following a straight up victory. Look for the home side to pull away for the comfortable win and cover! AAA Sports |
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09-17-22 | Phillies -105 v. Braves | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
10* PHILLIES MONEYLINE (ASSASSIN) Philadelphia will be looking to get back into the winner's circle after two straight losses. It had won five in a row before falling 5-3 to Miami in the finale of a three-game series, before then falling here by a score of 7-2 in the opener of this one. The visitors hand the ball to Aaron Nola, who is 9-11 with a 3.31 ERA and tiny 0.97 WHIP. While just 4-7 on the road, he sports a highly respectabel 2.86 ERA away from friendly confines. He'll be opposed by the volatile Jake Odorizzi, who is 5-5 with a 4.15 ERA this year. He's a pedestrian 2-2 with a 4.54 ERA at home this season. This game simply MEANS MORE to Philadelphia and I think it also clearly has the superior starter on the mound; those factors tip the scales in favor of the Phillies this afternoon! AAA Sports |
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09-17-22 | Orioles +1.5 v. Blue Jays | 3-6 | Loss | -143 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
8* ORIOLES RUNLINE (DESTRUCTION) While I do think an outright upset is very possible, in the end I believe that the runline option offers the better value here. Baltimore lost the opener here 6-3 yesterday, but I think it'll bounce back here on Saturday. The Jays had to use seevn pitchers on Friday night to earn the victory. These teams are now 7-7 in their season series. The home side goes with Jose Berrios, who is 10-5 with a 5.07 ERA, while the visitors counter with Kyle Bradish, who is 3-6 with a 5.01 ERA. Berrios has had more success vs. the Orioles this year than Bradish has vs. the Jays, but these guys are a "wash" for all intents and purposes. I don't really trust either. With the Jays' bullpen tired, I think the door is open for the Orioles here. The play is Baltimore on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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09-16-22 | Mariners v. Angels +1.5 | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show | |
8* ANGELS RUNLINE (SPECIAL) The Angels have lost four in a row, but I think they step up here and play spoiler to the Mariners on Friday night. Seattle has won three of its last four, most recently splitting a two-game series with the Padres. The Mariners are currently tied with Toronto for the top wild card spot. Michael Lorenzen is 6-6 with a 4.70 ERA for the Angels, and while he's had difficulties with the Mariners in the past, note that he's 4-2 with a 2.83 ERA at home this season. Ray has been exceptional after a poor start to his 2022 campaign, entering 12-9 with a 3.56 ERA. But in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I say the correct call is to grab the home side on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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09-16-22 | Florida State v. Louisville +3 | Top | 35-31 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 57 m | Show |
10* LOUISVILLE (ACC GOM) Louisville fell to Syracuse by a score of 31-7 in Week 1, but then it bounced back with a 20-14 victory over UCF as a 5.5-point dog in Week 2. I believe that the home side can keep the momentum rolling here in this important early Conference matchup. FSU comes to town at 2-0 SU, beating Duquesne 47-7 in Week 1, then holding on for the 24-23 win over LSU as a 4-point dog last weekend. FSU has so far allowed an average of only 15 PPG, but Louisville has conceded just 22.5. The Seminoles have averaged 35.5 PPG in the early going, but those numbers are skewed. Expect Jordan Travis and Treshaun Ward to have a much more difficult time on the road in this conference matchup. Louisville QB Malik Cunningham had 353 yards passing, no TD's and two INT's. Tiyon Evans has 164 rushing hards and two TD's. I think FSU finally has a letdown here, while I expect Cunningham to finally deliver with a big performance in front of the home town crowd; grab the points, the play is Louisville! AAA Sports |
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09-16-22 | Phillies +1.5 v. Braves | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -128 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
10* PHILLIES RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) The Phillies have been playing really well of late. They have won seven of their last ten. They just had their five game win streak snapped in yesterday's 5-3 loss at Miami, but they got caught looking ahead to this series. The Braves haven't been playing particularly well of late, having lost four of their last five, including a 4-1 setback at San Francisco in their most recent action. Max Fried gets the nod for the home side and he's 13-6 with a 2.50 ERA this season. He's 4-3 with a 3.96 ERA in 16 career games against Philadelphia, including 0-0 with a 3.75 ERA in three starts this season. "I feel as confident as ever," interim Phillies manager Rob Thomson assessed after last night's setback. "We're playing good. We're battling. There's a lot of energy in the dugout. Everyone is pulling for each other." Ranger Suarez is 9-5 with a 3.62 ERA for the Phillies. He's 1-2 with a 4.20 ERA in 13 career games vs. the Braves. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to recommend grabbing the visitors on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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09-15-22 | Chargers +4.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 37 h 36 m | Show |
10* CHARGERS (GOW) These teams split a pair of games last year. The Chiefs rallied to win the second game by a score of 34-28, a pivotal moment which could have given the Chargers the lead in the division at the time. Both teams battle for control of the division again after starting the year 1-0. Kansas City though looks ready for a bit of a letdown here in my estimation after their 44-21 thumping of Arizona on the road in Week 1. Patrick Mahomes was once again a standout with three TD's. Justin Herbert and the Chargers faced a much stiffer test in the Raiders, and they prevailed 24-19. Khalil Mack posted 3 QB sacks. Note that 2 of the Chief's 4 losses at home the last 2 years have come at the hands of the Chargers. Mahomes has a sore left wrist as well. Herbert has 7 TD passes at Arrow Head, and no INTs. Both teams have injury concerns. I think that the Chargers' defense will ultimately keep them in this contest. The outright is possible, but the official call will be to grab as many points as you can; the play is LA! AAA Sports |
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09-15-22 | Royals +1.5 v. Twins | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
10* ROYALS RUNLINE (AL Central GOM) I love how this sets up for Daniel Lynch and the Royals, and while I do think an outright victory is possible, in the end I'll recommend that you grab as many points as you can. Minnesota has taken the first two games of this series, but with a four-game series starting at AL Central leading Cleveland tomorrow, I believe the home side gets caught looking ahead to that contest. It's a big time revenge series, as Cleveland swept the Twins in Minnesota in the series previous to this one. It's a great situational play. Dylan Bundy is 8-7 with a 4.68 ERA for Minnesota, while Lynch is 5-10 with a 5.14 ERA for the Royals. I call these guys a "wash." Bundy is 2-2 with a 4.08 ERA in nine career appearances vs. the Royals, while Lynch is 1-2 with a 4.05 ERA in four starts vs. the Twins this season. Minnesota first baseman Luis Arraez's availability questionable heading in, and the Twins may very well elect to sit him out here with Cleveland on deck. The stage is set for an outright upset, but the official call will be to grab the Royals on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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09-15-22 | Phillies v. Marlins +1.5 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show | |
8* MARLINS RUNLINE (DOMINATION) The Phillies have now won five straight after sweeping the Nationals, and then taking the first two games of this series. I believe Philly has a small letdown here finally as it gets caught looking ahead to its series starting at Atlanta tomorrow, followed by the Jays and then another three-game series at home against the Braves. This is a "trap" for Philadelphia. Noah Syndergaard is 9-9 with a 4.09 ERA for the Phillies, while Pablo Lopez is 8-10 with a 4.04 ERA. Syndergaard is 7-3 with a 3.56 ERA at home this year, but just 2-6 with a 5.06 ERA on the road. Lopez is 2-1 with a 3.16 ERA in seven career starts vs. Philadelphia. While I do think the outright is possible, the value here is grabbing the home side on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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09-14-22 | Yankees v. Red Sox +1.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -140 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
10* RED SOX RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) Boston's 2 game win streak came to an end in last night's 7-6 loss here in extra innings to the Yanks. I believe we'll see a similar very tight and competitive affair here on Wednesday as well. The Yanks have won 3 straight and I expect some complacency here. Brayan Bello is 1-5 with a with a 5.79 ERA overall this year for the Red Sox, but he's thrown into the 6th inning in his past 2 starts and he owns a 3.55 ERA over his last six outings. Note that 14 Red Sox/Yankees games this year have been decided by one run! Nestor Cortes Jr. is 9-4 with a 2.73 ERA for the Yanks. He faced the Red Sox on July 8th and was shelled for 4 runs over 3 innigns off 8 hits. An outright upset is possible, but the official call will be to grab the 1.5 runs of insurance! AAA Sports |
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09-13-22 | Astros v. Tigers +1.5 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
10* AL GOY Tigers RUNLINE. Houston has won 7 of its last 10, but after yesterday's 7-0 win here, I believe it'll have its hands full on Tuesday. Detroit has lost 6 of its last 10 and been shutout in 2 straight (the Tigers though are 7-3 in their L10 in trying to avenge a shutout home loss against an opponent.) I believe these starters are much more evenly matched than what Las Vegas is trying to lead us to believe. Houston goes with Hunter Brown (1-0, 0.00 ERA), who looked great in his MLB debut against the Rangers on Sept. 5th, allowing three hits over six scoreless. I believe regression is now in order here in his second start. And I like Drew Hutchinson here, who is 2-7 with a 4.08 ERA. He's 1-1 with a 5.71 ERA in three starts vs. the Astros, but I expect him to, at the very least, match his counterpart inning for inning. The outright is possible, but in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm grabbing Detroit on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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09-12-22 | Broncos v. Seahawks +7 | Top | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
10* ASSASSIN ON SEATTLE Wilson's not the only player in this game. The Seahawks have a lot of pride and they are a well-coached organization. The Broncos were 7-10 last year, same record as Seattle. Winning on the road isn't easy and this is never an easy place to play. Seattle has a veteran QB in Smith: "The reality is it's just step one," Smith said. "I've got to make sure that I'm ready to go out there, win and play 17 games and more. ... I'm grateful. I'm thankful. I'm forever indebted to the Seattle Seahawks organization. But it's time to get to work." Coach Carroll says: "I'm really excited about this team. I love the makeup. I love the way that they've come together from way back when. I love the leadership. I love the speed. I love our style in all aspects. And now we need to go out and show it and live up to that. My expectations are very high." Since they met in SB, these teams have played two close games. This will be another. Take the points. AAA Sports |
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09-12-22 | Pirates v. Reds -128 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -128 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
10* NL CENTRAL GOY ON CINCINNATI This is a Pittsburgh team that the Reds love to host. They are 21-7 the last 28 meetings in Cincinnati. Minor has been good lately. He has a 2.60 ERA his last 3 starts. The Reds won 7-1 the last time he pitched. They've won 3 of his last 4 and they won 9-5 his last start against the Pirates. Wilson has not been good lately and he is 2-7 with a 6.88 ERA as a starter. Pittsburgh can't hit and is 17-30 against left-handed starters. Reds win! AAA Sports |
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09-11-22 | Bucs v. Cowboys OVER 50.5 | Top | 19-3 | Loss | -110 | 111 h 21 m | Show |
10* NFC TOM ON DALLAS/TB OVER If you like points, Sunday night should be your kind of game. Both these offenses are going to pile up the points this year. Cowboys don't get the love but they will be among the most explosive teams in the league. They are an elite offense with Prescott. Bucs have finished in top 3 in points in 3 consecutive seasons. Over is 7-1 in Bucs last eight games in September. Over is 4-1 in Cowboys last five in September. Go with the Over! AAA Sports |
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09-11-22 | Packers v. Vikings +2 | Top | 7-23 | Win | 100 | 107 h 30 m | Show |
10* NFC North GOY ON MINNESOTA We'll take the points but won't need them. Vikings will win this one outright. Rodgers gets all the hype but Minnesota has the better offense in this matchup. Rodgers is going to miss Adams with the Packers trying to keep up with them. The underdog is 4-1 ATS the past five meetings between these NFC North rivals. The home team won both last year. Grab the points. AAA Sports |
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09-10-22 | Eastern Washington v. Oregon -22.5 | Top | 14-70 | Win | 100 | 25 h 9 m | Show |
10* Non-Conf GOW on Oregon. Eastern Washington lost a lot from last year and is in the wrong part of town . Oregon has won 28 consecutive non-conference home games. After his team got destroyed last week, Oregon coach Dan Lanning said this:"Really got to put to bed the Georgia game. Obviously disappointed with the result in the first game. Lot of stuff that we can improve and work on, but really proud of the fact that our guys attacked that in practice. We talk about taking our medicine, going to the doctor, figuring out (how) we can get better. And every one of those guys walked into that room ... and they weren't finger pointers, they were thumb pointers -- what can they improve? ... We've got good players and we can play a lot better than we played." Lanning is a first year coach here and he will be feeling the pressure to deliver a big win. The Ducks scored 61 last time they played this team. Lay the points. AAA Sports |
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09-10-22 | USC v. Stanford UNDER 67 | Top | 41-28 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 27 m | Show |
10* PAC 12 TOY ON USC/STANFORD UNDER USC flexed its offensive muscles last week. The new coach and QB (Riley and Williams) from Oklahoma lived up to the hype. They will face a different challenge this week. Stanford ran (and passed) the ball very effectively in dismantling Colgate. The balanced offense and quality ground game will help to keep the Trojans on the sidelines. No recent game between these teams has had a total remotely close to being this high. The last four meetings here at Stanford have all finished under the total and so will this one. Defense! AAA Sports |
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09-10-22 | Cardinals v. Pirates UNDER 8 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
10* TOY ON CARDINALS/PIRATES UNDER Flaherty allowed 1 run last start. The game finished with 6 runs. Brubaker allowed 2 runs last start. The game finished with 7 runs. Brubaker faced the Cardinals in June. The final score was 3-1. Early reports show that the wind is likely to be blowing in. Understand that the Pirates score fewer runs than any other National League team. As a team, they hit .219. Go with the Under! AAA Sports |
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09-10-22 | Arkansas State v. Ohio State -44 | 12-45 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 47 m | Show | |
8* DESTRUCTION ON OHIO STATE This is a mismatch of epic proportions. They can't make the spread high enough. The Buckeyes took a bit to get started against Notre Dame. They got it going though and will be good from the start of this one. Arkansas State faced Grambling in its opener. So, this is about as a big a step up in class as a team can take. They will not be prepared. Buckeyes are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. This will be a thrashing! AAA Sports |
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09-09-22 | Boise State -17 v. New Mexico | 31-14 | Push | 0 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
8* HOOK AND LADDER ON BOISE We played against the Broncos in their Week 1 loss to Oregon State. New Mexico is a far cry from OSU. The Broncos routinely beat the stuffing out of this team. Last year's game was typical, a 37-0 crush-job. The previous meeting was 42-9. The Lobos are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Lobos are also 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. The Broncos are 4-0 ATS their last four, off an ATS loss. Lay the points! AAA Sports |
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09-09-22 | Angels v. Astros -210 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
6* BLOOD BATH ON HOUSTON Lorenzen last started a game on July 1. That was against Houston and he gave up 8 runs. Final score was 8-1. Now he has to face the Astros again. Poor guy. McCullers Jr. has a 2.08 ERA in four starts. The Astros beat the Angels 4-2 in his last start. Astros are 49-22 as home favorites of 175 to 250 last 3 seasons. Angels 6-17 as road dogs of 175 to 250. Houston will be too much for the Angels in this one. Lay the price. AAA Sports |
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09-08-22 | Bills v. Rams +2.5 | Top | 31-10 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 29 m | Show |
10* NON-CONF GOM ON THE RAMS Don't ever underestimate the heart of a champion. Not on opening night in the champion's own house. The Bills are the favorites to win the title this year but the Rams have actually done it. Did you know that reigning SB champs are 14-2 when playing in season openers since 2004? The Rams are 5-0 last five years under McVay in season openers. It might be a different story if they meet again in the Super Bowl. For now the right move is to grab the points. AAA Sports |
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09-08-22 | Marlins v. Phillies -128 | 6-5 | Loss | -128 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
8* DOMINATOR ON PHILADELPHIA The Marlins are really bad right now. You can't win if you don't score. In losing nine straight, they've scored only 14 runs. Price is reasonable because of Miami having its ace on the mound. Even Alcantara has been bad of late though. Last home start saw Gibson deliver 7 shutout innings. Phillies are now 8-1 the past nine meetings with Miami. Head to the closet and grab your brooms, Philadelphia fans. Your club is about to complete the sweep! AAA Sports |
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09-07-22 | Reds v. Cubs -140 | 7-1 | Loss | -140 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
*8 ASSASSIN ON CHICAGO Cubbies got back in the win column yesterday. Cincinnati got back to losing. Reds are 29-51 last 80 off a loss. Minor's team record is 3-13. He's 3-10 with a 5.98 ERA. Backed by a bad Reds bullpen. Assad has a 0.00 ERA in two starts. The Cubs beat the Cardinals 2-0 when he started at Wrigley. Cubs are 4-1 last 5 meetings with the Reds here and 5-1 last six meetings combined. They'll get it done again tonight. Cubs Win. Cubs Win! AAA Sports |
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09-07-22 | Giants v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 25 m | Show |
10* GETAWAY DAY TOW ON SF/LA UNDER Cobb and Kershaw had a high-scoring game against each other in July. Both starters were strong last start though and runs will be harder to come by in this afternoon's rematch. Kershaw allowed 1 run, on only 1 hit, last start. Cobb allowed 0 runs, on only 3 hits, in his most recent start. That's consecutive shutouts for Cobb and he has now permitted 3 or fewer earned runs in 7 straight. Under was 5-2 in those games. Go with the Under! AAA Sports |
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09-06-22 | Mets -207 v. Pirates | 2-8 | Loss | -207 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
6* Bloodbath on the NY Mets The Mets, who lost Saturday and Sunday, have been great at responding to losses. They are 36-14 last 50 times they were off a defeat. Walker has faced the Dodgers, Yankees and Braves in his last 3 starts. Three elite teams. Now, he takes on Pittsburgh. Big class drop. Walker has a 10-3 record and a 6-2 record at home. Last three starts, Keller is 0-2 with a 6.17 ERA and a WHIP approaching two. With the Mets 17-5 their last 22, when playing with a day off, this one turns into a blood-bath! AAA Sports |
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09-05-22 | Giants v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
10* NL West TOY on SF/LA Under If you like quality pitching, you should enjoy this game. Webb's last four starts all were unders. Scores of 2-0, 5-0, 6-1 and 4-3. He allowed 1 run last start and it was unearned. Heaney has a 1.05 ERA in five home starts. In his last three starts he has 28 strikeouts in 15.2 innings. Twelve starts in a row for Heaney where he has allowed 3 or less earned runs. Make it 5 straight unders for Webb! AAA Sports |
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09-05-22 | Edmonton Elks v. Calgary UNDER 49.5 | Top | 18-26 | Win | 100 | 21 h 41 m | Show |
10* CFL Total Of The Year on Calgary/Edmonton Under This rivalry has gone over of late. The Elks currently can't score though. Edmonton has played consecutive low-scoring games. 43 and 42 points. Last time off. a loss, Calgary's game had 41 points. Last time off a loss against Winnipeg, Calgary's game had 20 point, a 17-3 final. Calgary clamps down on D again and this one stays Under! AAA Sports |
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09-04-22 | Florida State v. LSU OVER 49.5 | Top | 24-23 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 22 m | Show |
10* Total Of The Week on FSU/LSU Over The winner of this game is likely going to score more than 30. The loser may even do so. If not, the losing team should still score more than 20. Seminoles are off a huge offensive display in their opening game. They put up 47 points and could have scored more if needed. The over is 5-0 the past 5x that the Seminoles scored 40 or more points in their previous game. The over is also 8-2 the last 10x that the Tigers played in the month of September. Go with the Over. AAA Sports |
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09-04-22 | Yankees -120 v. Rays | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
10* A.L. East GOY on New York Yankees Armstrong is a reliever getting a spot start. He's got a 4.72 ERA and a 1.41 W-H-I-P. Montas allowed 0 runs in 7 innings last time he faced Tampa. In two starts against the Rays this season, he has permitted 1 earned run in 13.3 innings. The Yankees will pound Armstrong and they will provide Montas with ample run support. Just when the Rays think they are getting close, NY reminds them who's boss. Let's go Yankees! AAA Sports |
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09-03-22 | Boise State v. Oregon State -2 | Top | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 31 h 44 m | Show |
10* Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on OSU Surprised to see the Beavers favored? Don't be. Boise State has had more success than Oregon State. So, it might seem surprising. The Beavers are going to be pretty good this season though and this will not be one of the Broncos' better teams. Not right away, at least. They lost a lot from last year. They aren't a good running team and that will make it hard to keep Oregon State off the field. The Beavers were brilliant here last season. They are balanced on offense and will prove too much for Boise. Lay the small number. AAA Sports |
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09-03-22 | Twins v. White Sox -125 | Top | 0-13 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
10* AL Central GOY on Chicago White Sox Chicago rallied for an important win yesterday. Winners of three straight, the Sox have their ace to the mound. Cease is a Cy Young candidate. Mahle is returning from injury. Still two games back of the Twins and three back of the Guardians, the Sox badly need this game. The Twins are 27-34 away from Minnesota. Sox won 11-0 last time Cease faced the Twins. Chicago makes it four straight! AAA Sports |
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09-03-22 | NC State v. East Carolina +12.5 | 21-20 | Win | 100 | 17 h 44 m | Show | |
*8 ASSASSIN ON EAST CAROLINA NC State will have a good year but this will be a tough test. A noon ET start first game against an underrated, upset-minded, motivated instate rival. Host ECU is coming off its best season in several years. The Pirates were set to go to a bowl (for the first time since 2014) last year but the Military Bowl was canceled due to a COVID-19 outbreak. That makes for some unfinished business. The Pack are 5-13 ATS their last 18 on the road. Grab the points. AAA Sports |
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09-02-22 | TCU v. Colorado UNDER 58.5 | Top | 38-13 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
10* ESPN Top Tier on TCU/Col Under Big number for two unproven offenses. Colorado wasn't good offensively last year. The Buffaloes were shutout once last season and scored three points on another occasion. They scored 13, 20 and 20 in their final three games. They averaged 18.8 ppg and 257.4 ypg. That ranked 121st and 129th, respectively. They couldn't pass or run the ball. Ugly. TCU was better but still not amazing. The Frogs averaged 28.7 ppg, 65th in the country. They scored 17 or less in four of the final six games and 31 or less in all of those. Again, a very big total for two offenses yet to show they'll be better this year. Too big. Seven of last eight Colorado reg. season home games have finished with less than 60. Go Under. AAA Sports |
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09-02-22 | Astros -155 v. Angels | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 28 h 15 m | Show |
10* AL WEST GOY on Houston Astros The Astros are relentless. They've got a 30-11 record against left-handers. Detmers, 1.842 WHIP his last three, is going to be in trouble. Houston averages 4.5 runs per game. LA averages 3.8. As a team, the Angels hit only .227. McCullers Jr. has a 1.69 ERA in his three starts. Eleven straight starts since last year have resulted in McCullers Jr giving up 3 runs or less. Big bullpen edge for the Astros. Houston makes it four straight! AAA Sports |
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09-01-22 | Penn State v. Purdue UNDER 53.5 | Top | 35-31 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 28 m | Show |
10* Big Ten T.O.Y. on Penn State / Purdue Under Four of the Lions' last five games finished with 45 or fewer points. Six of their past seven games stayed below the posted total. The PSU offense will be committed to running the ball a lot. Offensive line with a lot of new faces though so yards won't come easily. Most recent meeting (2019) had a total of 55.5 and finished with 42. Purdue managed just 104 total yards in that game, Penn State recording 10 sacks. History repeats with another defensive battle. AAA Sports |
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09-01-22 | Royals v. White Sox -205 | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 57 m | Show | |
6* Smackdown on Chicago White Sox This price is higher than we normally like to go but the matchup warrants it. Chicago got it's win yesterday and now will make it two in a row. Before his last outing, Cueto had been a model of consistency. Mengden will be making his first start this season. He's mostly worked out of the bullpen the past few years and therefore likely won't be around long. KC relievers have a 4.94 ERA. The edges add up to a big victory. AAA Sports |
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08-31-22 | Dodgers +1.5 v. Mets | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
10* DODGERS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) The Mets are coming off back-to-back losses. They fell 1-0 to Colorado after taking the first 2 games over the Rockies, before then falling 4-3 here in yesterday's series opener vs. the Dodgers. In what I expect to be another very tight and competitive affair, one that could very likely be decided in extras, I'm going to suggest laying what I feel to be a very reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Obviously we have two of the World's best pithers going head-to-head here. Tyler Anderson is 13-2 with a 2.69 ERA for the Dodgers, while Jacob deGrom is 3-1 with a 2.15 ERA for the Mets. This is one of those "Any Given Sunday" type of scenarios. It would not be difficult to write a convincing argument for either of these starters to come out on top, and that for all intents and purposes, makes them a "wash." The Mets stayed 3 games ahead of Atlanta in the NL East after the Braves lost 3-2 to the Rockies yesterday, while the Dodgers maintain a 19.5-games lead over everyone. As I said off the top, this one is going to be a classic "duel." Because of that, the play here is LA on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-30-22 | Rays v. Marlins +1.5 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
10* MARLINS RUNLINE (IL GOM) In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extra time, I'm going to recommend grabbing the home side on the runline option. Miami has lost 5 straight in this series, so it won't be lacking for motivation today. Miami sees Jesus Luzardo toe the slab, and he's 3-5 with a 3.34 ERA, while the visitors counter with SHane McClanahan, who is 11-5 with a 2.20 ERA. Luzardo enters on top form though and I believe that momentum gets carried over here, as he's posted 3 quality starts out of his past 4 games and has posted a 2.67 ERA over 5 August starts. McClanahan has had plenty of success against the Fish in the past, but who hasn't? The bottom line here is that I look for Luzardo to match McClanahan inning for inning and in a scenario like that, the value swings to this undervalued hungry home underedog. While I do think an outright win is a possibility, the official call will be to grab the Marlins on the runline! AAA Sports |
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08-29-22 | Dodgers v. Marlins +1.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 115 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
10* MARLINS RUNLINE (GAME OF WEEK) The Dodgers have taken 2 of 3 here in Miami so far, but with a 3-game series at the Mets starting tomorrow night, I think they get caught "looking ahead." They come in complacent with their ace on the mound Tony Gonsolin, who continues to defy the odds and enters with a 16-1 record with a 2.10 ERA and 0.86 WHIP. The home side counters with Pablo Lopez, who is 8-8 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.16 WHIP (he's been great in all "night" contests this season as well, going 8-4 with a 2.66 ERA in all such instances.) Lopez is also 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA in 2 career starts vs. the Dodgers. Look for Lopez to match Gonsolin inning for inning and in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to suggest grabbing the home side on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-28-22 | Cubs +1.5 v. Brewers | Top | 7-9 | Loss | -145 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
10* CUBS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) The Cubs have been following an interesting pattern of late, and I expect it to continue here. Chicago has been trading wins and losses over its last 7 games, and coming off the 7-0 loss here yesterday, I believe it has a good chance at continuing that run. That said, in a contest that I expect to be much more competitive that yesterday's game, I'm going to lay this reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Chicago is actually 5-1 in its last 6 in trying to avenge a shutout road loss of 6 or more runs as well. The Cubs hand the ball to Adrian Sampson (1-4, 4.04 ERA), who is coming off a shaky outing, but who did well against Milwaukee when he faced it on July 6th, going 6 innins and allowing 1 run and striking out 5 in the victory. I expect him to bounce back here though and raise the level of his game to match his counterpart Eric Lauer (9-5, 3.44.) He's 1-0 with a 2.12 ERA in 3 starts vs. the Cubs this season, but I expect Sampson to match him inning for inning. For all the reasons listed above, the play is Chicago on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-27-22 | Yankees v. A's +1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 115 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
10* ATHLETICS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) The Yanks enter complacent now again after 5 straight victories. That includes a 13-4 win in the opener of this 4-game series here in Oakland, followed by yesterday's much tighter 3-2 victory last night. I'm fully expecting Saturday's contest to follow suit from Friday's highly competitive affair. Domingo German is 2-2 with a 3.89 ERA for the Yanks. So far German though has been considerably better in front of the home town crowd, going 2-0 with a 3.38 ERA in New York, compared to 0-2 with a 4.85 ERA everywhere else. The home side counters with Adam Oller, who is just 2-6 with a 6.41 ERA. Oller is coming off a decent outing though and I expect him to build off that, as he went 6 innings, allowing 3 runs in what turned out to be an unfrotunate no-decision vs. the Marlins. I think New York is over-priced here and as I said off the top, I expect another really tight and competitive game here in Oakland as the A's try to snap New York's 5-game win skein; the play is Oakland on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-26-22 | Angels +1.5 v. Blue Jays | Top | 12-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
10* ANGELS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) The Angels won't be in the playoffs, but they'll be eager to snap a 6-game skid. Most recently they lost 4 straight in Tampa. The Jays look poised for a letdown here after winning 7 of their last 10, including 3 in a row. The Blue Jays won in 10 innings for a 2nd game in a row as well, adding to the letdown scenario here vs. the lowly, albeit hungry Angels. Mitch White is 1-3 with a 3.63 ERA for the Jays, while Reid Detmers is 4-4 with a 3.66 ERA for the Angels. This is the first time Detmers has faced Toronto, but White faced the Angels last year and was shelled for 6 runs over 1 inning. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance; the play is LA on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-25-22 | Twins +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -135 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
10* TWINS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) I had a play on the Twins on the runline last night, and while that play unforuntately came up a run short, I believe the stage is now set for a possible outright upset here for the visiting side. That said, the value is just too good to turn down ultimately for the Twins on the runline option in my opinion. The Twins turn to Chris Archer, who is 2-6 with a 4.02 ERA. Minnesota is 0-5 vs. Houston this year, getting outscored 30-8. Archer though is 5-3 with a 2.67 ERA in 9 career outings vs. the Astros, including going 3-1 with a 2.90 ERA in 5 career starts in Houston. Luis Garcia is 10-8 with a 4.09 ERA and while he's had plenty of success against the Twins in the past, the bottom line here is that I expect Archer to match him inning for inning. And in a scenario like that, the value swings to this undervalued, but extremely hungry road underdog; the play is Minnesota on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-24-22 | Twins +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
10* BLOOD-BATH Twins RUNLINE. The hungry Twins are poised for an outright victory here, but in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extra time, I'm going to grab the visitors on the runline option. The Twins have now lost 4 in a row after droopping 3 straight at home to Texas, and then falling 4-2 here in yesterday's series opener (Minnesota though is 7-3 in its last 10 after 3 or more straight losses). Dylan Bundy is 7-4 with a 4.60 ERA for the Twins. He most recently allowed 1 run over 6 innings in a 2-1 victory over the Rangers. That's back-to-back quality outings for Bundy and I expect him to carry that momentum over here and down the stretch. He'll be opposed by Framber Valdez, who is 12-4 with a 2.72 ERA. Look for Bundy to continue to elevate the level of his play and to match Valdez inning for inning. In a scenario like that, the value swings to the hugry undervalued underdog. The play here though is Minnesota on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-23-22 | Angels +1.5 v. Rays | Top | 1-11 | Loss | -145 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
10* ANGELS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) The Angels have lost 6 of their last 7, including 3 straight (note that LA is 7-2 in its last 9 after 3 or more consecutive losses), which includes a 2-1 setback here in yesterday's 4-game series opener. I'm expecting another really tight game here as well, and while the outright is of course possible, the runline option is just too good to turn down in the end in my opinion. Tampa can't afford to take the foot off the gas in the AL East race, but after 3 straight victories and winning 6 of its last 7, I believe it comes out a bit complacent here. The starters are pretty evenly matched as well. Corey Kluber is 7-7 with a 4.33 ERA for the Rays, but he's a pedestrian 3-3 with a 4.97 ERA in nine career starts vs. the Halos. The visitors counter with Jose Suarez, who is 4-5 with a 4.12 ERA. Note that over 4 starts since the all star game he's 2-1 with a 1.19 ERA spanning 22 2/3's frames of work. For all the reasons listed above, the play is the Angels on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-22-22 | Cardinals v. Cubs +1.5 | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
10* CUBS RUNLINE (GOW) Chicago had its 5 game win streak come to an end yesterday's in its 6-2 loss at home to Milwaukee. I think the Cubs can bounce back here though and, at the very least, keep this one close enough for the comfortable "runline" cover. And after 7 straight victories, I believe that the Cardinals finally have a small letdown here. St. Louis sees Jordan Montgomery toe the slabe, and he's 3-3 with a 3.69 ERA. The home side counters with Drew Smyly, who is 5-6 with a 3.67 ERA. For all intents and purposes, I believe these starters are a "wash," which swings the value here to the undervalued home underdog. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm grabbing the Cubs on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-21-22 | Angels v. Tigers +1.5 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 15 m | Show |
10* TIGERS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) I think the Tigers will build off their 4-3 win over the Angels here yesterday. Neither team is going to be in the playoffs. Yes this is Shohei Ohtani on the mound for the Angels, but I still think that LA is overpriced here on the road. Eduardo Rodriguez returns to Detroit today after time off due to injury, and then something personal. He's just 1-3 with a 4.38 ERA, but he threw 3 minor league stints and gave up one run while striking out 11 over 6 innings on Tuesday: "It was difficult to step away from what I've been through my whole career, my teammates and everything," Rodriguez said. "But for me, family is always first. My second family is my teammates and this organization. They've given me the opportunity to be here, and I am back here now with my second family. Mentally, physically, I feel good to be back here." Ohtani is 10-7 with a 2.69 ERA. He's been a consistent bright spot for the Angels on both sides of the plate, but I'm expecting Rodriguez to match his counterpart inning for inning. And in a scenario like that, I've always felt that the value then swings to the undervalued underdog. And that's Rodriguez and the Tigers here today. While the outright is possible, let's lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance! AAA Sports |
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08-20-22 | Rangers +1.5 v. Twins | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
10* RANGERS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) Texas has dropped 3 of its past 4, including yesterday's contest by a score of 2-1. The Rangers catch the Twins at a good time here though in my opinion and in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extra time, I'll recommend grabbing the 1.5 runs of insurance for the reasonable price. After sweeping the Royals in 3 games and earning the win yesterday, all signs point to a predictable letdown here for the home side. Glenn Otto is 5-8 with a 4.96 ERA for the Rangers, while Chris Archer is 2-6 with a 4.15 ERA for the Twins. For all intents and purposes, I'll call these starters a "wash." With the majority of the public money on the home side here, the value has now swung the other way for this undervalued underdog. And while I do think the outright win is possible, the official call is to grab Texas on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-19-22 | Royals +1.5 v. Rays | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
10* ROYALS RUNLINE (NON-DIV GOY) The Royals have now lost 4 straight after yesterday's 7-1 setback here in Tampa Bay. The Royals have been struggling to score, but I expect them to, at the very least, dig deep and keep this one interesting late. This is a 4 game series. The Rays have hit a "vanilla" part of their schedule, with upcoming series against the Angels and Red Sox up next. Regardless, I believe they'll have their hands full here today with Royals' ace Brady Singer, who is 6-4 with a 3.29 ERA. He'll be opposed by Shane McClanahan, who is 11-5 with a 2.28 ERA. Singer faced the Rays on July 23rd and allowed 2 runs over 6 innings while also striking out 12. Over his last 32 innings of work Singer has posted a 1.67 ERA. McClanhan has lost 2 of his last 3 outing and seen his ERA rise from 1.71 from pre-All Star break, to 2.28 post. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to grab the visitors on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-18-22 | Diamondbacks +1.5 v. Giants | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
10* DIAMONDBACKS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) I had a play on Arizona last night on the runline, and in the end I didn't even need the extra 1.5 runs of insurance in the Diamondbacks 3-2 victory. In another contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras this time, I'll once again recommend laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs in your back pocket. The loss snapped a 5-game win streak for the Giants, and another letdown wouldn't be suprising in this spot in my opinion. These starters are evenly matched. Zach Gallen (8-2, 2.94 ERA) toes the slab for the visitors, while Logan Webb (11-5, 3.00) counters for the home side. For all intents and purposes, let's call these guys a "wash." With an 8-game road trip starting in Colorado, expect San Francisco to get caught looking ahead here as well. This is a "trap" for the Giants. And I do think it's worth sprinkling a little on the money line, but the official call will be to grab Arizona on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-17-22 | Diamondbacks +1.5 v. Giants | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
10* DIAMONDBACKS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) Arizona will, at the very least, take this one right down to the wire in my estimation, so in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'll recommend grabbing the visitors on the runline option. Arizona has fallen 6-1 and 2-1 over the first 2 games of this series. San Francisco desperately needs to make up ground, but Arizona isn't going to roll over here. Zach Davies is 2-4 with a 4.11 ERA for Arizona, while Carlos Rodon is 11-6 with a 2.95 ERA for the Giants. After B2B walk off wins, expect San Francisco to come back down to Earth tonight. I think Davies matches Rodon inning for inning and in a scenario like that, the value swings to this undervalued underdog. The outright is possible, but the official call will be to grab Arizona on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-17-22 | Dodgers v. Brewers +1.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
9* BREWERS RUNLINE (DESTRUCTION) The Dodgers have now lost 2 of their last 3 after last night's 5-4, 10-inning loss here. I think they'll have another letdown here as well. Milwaukee needs to string some wins together and in what I anticipate to be another very tight affair tonight, I'm recommeding grabbing Milwaukee on the runline option here. Tony Gonsolin is 14-1 with a 2.24 ERA for the Dodgers. He's been awesome. He'll be opposed by Milwaukee's ace Eric Lauer, who is 8-4 with a 3.64 ERA. Lauer though is 4-1 with a 2.66 ERA at home. Look for Lauer and the hungry Brewers to, at the very least, keep this one comfortable enough to cover with the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-17-22 | A's +1.5 v. Rangers | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
8* ATHLETICS (RUNLINE) The Athletics finally snapped a 9 game losing streak with a 5-1 win over the Rangers yesterday and I think they'll, at the very least, keep today's game close enough to earn the ATS (runline) cover. The Rangers 3 game win streak came to an end yesterday and I believe they'll have a letdown here as well. Adam Oller is 1-5 with a 7.26 ERA for Oakland. Oller has faced some stiff opponents since returning to the rotatin, including facing the Astros 3 times over his last 5 games. Oller has struggled, but I still don't think that Rangers' rookie Cole Ragans should be favored by this much at this point, despite his opposition. Ragans is 0-1 with a 4.82 ERA, most recently giving up 5 runs over 4 innings in a 7-3 loss to the Astros on Thursday. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to grab Oakland on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-16-22 | Royals +1.5 v. Twins | Top | 0-9 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
10* ROYALS RUNLINE (AL GOM) The Royals beat the Dodgers 4-0, breaking LA's 12-game win streak, but then fell 4-2 in the opener here at Minnesota yesterday. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to suggest grabbing the hungry visiting side on the "runline" option. The Twins lost 3 of 3 to the Angels before yesterday's victory. Zack Greinke gets the start for the Royals, and he's 4-7 with a 4.29 ERA. He'll be opposed by Sonny Gray, who is 6-3 with a 3.33 ERA. Greinke has had difficulties with the Twins in the past, but he's been sharp of late and I expect the veteran to match Gray inning for inning. In a scenario like that, the value swings here to the undervalued underdog. The play is Kansas City on the runline! AAA Sports |
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08-15-22 | Dodgers v. Brewers +1.5 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
10* BREWERS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) The Dodgers 12-game win streak came to an end last night in the Royals' 4-0 victory in Kansas City. I had a play on KC on the "runline" in that one. I think this is a good situational play, as another letdown here after their first loss in ages is imminent in my estimation. The Brewers on the other hand won't be lacking for motivation here after loing 2 of 3 at St. Louis over the weekend, including a 6-3 setback last night. Julio Urias toes the slab for the visitors. He's been great, going 12-6 with a 2.49 ERA so far. The home side counters with Freddy Peralta, who is 4-2 with a 4.37 ERA. Peralta is 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA in 2 career starts vs. the Dodgers. Urias is 4-1 with a 2.29 ERA in 6 career outings vs. the Brewers. I believe though that Peralta can match Urias inning for innings and in a scenario like that, I feel the value now swings to this undervalued hungry home underdog. While I do think the outright win is a possibility, my official call will be to grab Milwaukee on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-14-22 | Twins v. Angels +1.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
9* ANGELS RUNLINE (BAIL-OUT BLOWOUT) I think that Tucker Davidson can match his counterpart Chris Archer inning for inning tonight, and in a scenario like that, I believe the value swings to the undervalued home underdog. LA has quietly been playing better of late, winning 4 of its last 5, including yesterday's contest here vs. the Twins by a score of 5-3. Minnesota is just 27-29 on the road now. Davidson is 1-2 with a 6.46 ERA, while Archer is 2-5 with a 4.02 ERA. Archer is 0-2 with a 6.43 ERA over his last 5 starts. Davidson gave up 6 runs in his debut last Sunday to a hot Seattle team, but I expect him to settle down here at home: "If you look at my walk rate in Triple-A, it's the lowest of my career," Davidson said. "I just have to translate it up here. Maybe not be so fine and trust my stuff. More of a 'here it is, hit it,' and then good things will happen. I think the big thing is getting ahead with strike-one and putting the throttle down when I can." The official call in this one is the Angels on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-14-22 | Pirates +1.5 v. Giants | Top | 7-8 | Win | 107 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
10* PIRATES RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) Pittsburgh has lost 3 straight. That's important to note here though, as the Pirates have gone 6-2 in their last 8 after 3 or more straight losses in a row. They've dropped the first 2 games of this series, including yesterday's contest by a score of 2-0 (note that the Bucs are also 7-3 in their last 10 in trying to avenge a shutout road loss against an opponent.) Alex Wood toes the slab for the home side. He's been hit or miss this season, as he's 8-9 with a 4.17 ERA. The visitors counter with Zach Thompson, who is 3-9 with a 5.08 ERA. Thompson hasn't won in 9 starts, so he won't be lacking for motivation here. I think Thompson can match Wood inning for inning today. For all the reasons listed above, I expect the momentum in this series to shift; the play is Pittsburgh on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-14-22 | A's +1.5 v. Astros | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 18 m | Show | |
8* ATHLETICS RUNLINE (SPECIAL) I like the A's to dip deep, play with pride, and, at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Oakland has lost seven straight now. It's off the 8-0 loss here yesterday, but note that it's 7-3 in its last 10 in trying to avenge a shutout road loss of 5 or more runs. Houston gets caught looking past its lowly opponent today, with a 4-game series at the White Sox starting tomorrow, followed by a 3-game set at Atlanta. Cole Irvin has been a bright spot for the A's this year, as he's 6-9 with a 2.92 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. I expect him to match Christian Javier, who is 6-8 with a 3.14 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. The outright upset is possible, but the value lies in the visiting side on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-13-22 | Mariners v. Rangers +1.5 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
6* RANGERS RUNLINE (SPECIAL) Texas has lost 8 of its last 10, including yesterday's series opener here with Seattle by a score of 6-2, but I believe the conditions are now right for a much more competitive battle on Saturday. Seattle comes in on the other end of the spectrum, having won 7 of its last 10. After 3 straight victories here though, I'm expecting a letdown. Marco Gonzalez toes the slab for the visitors and he's 7-11 with a 3.98 ERA. He's just 2-6 with a 5.01 ERA on the road though. The home side counters with Dane Dunning, who is 2-6 with a 4.04 ERA. He's 0-5 with a 5.12 ERA on the road, but 2-1 with a 2.99 ERA at home. Look for home field to play a big advantage for Dunning here. But in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, the play here is to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance with the Rangers on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-13-22 | Yankees v. Red Sox +1.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
10* RED SOX RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) Yes, the Yankees are in desperate need of a victory here after losing 8 of their last 10 games, including the opener here yesterday by a score of 3-2 in exrta innings. New York though is still 71-52 and in the drivers seat in the AL East. Boston fans could care less about the Yanks' issues, as they enter at 56-58, and needing desperately to continue to string some wins together. These starting pitchers are evenly matched. Frankie Montas is 4-9 with a 3.18 ERA for the Yankees this year, while Karl Crawford is 3-4 with a 4.30 ERA for the Red Sox. Let's call these guys a "wash." The oddsmakers continue to give New York too much respect here though considering its form, and especially here on the road. I expect a similar type of game as what we saw on Friday, so let's lay the reasonable price for the Red Sox on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-12-22 | Jets -1 v. Eagles | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 82 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Jets. Both teams are expected to improve this year, but this is a good strategic play on New YOrk. Zach Wilson is going to see more time under center than his counterpart Jalen Hurts today. The Jets have plenty of new receivers, so Wilson will get a few snaps. Sirianni is going to be much more conservative with his veteran laden team. Joe Flacco will also see a lot of action under center for New York, and he'll be playing with a chip on his shoulder. Lay the points, the play is the Jets! AAA Sports |
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08-12-22 | Browns v. Jaguars -1.5 | 24-13 | Loss | -110 | 81 h 28 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Jaguars. Cleveland is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 preseason games, but after so much offseason turmoil and uncertainty coming into the year, I'm expecting Cleveland to struggle to start this season overall. Doug Pederson is hoping to change things around quickly in Jacksonville as well after the stench from Urban Meyer last season. The Jags are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 preseason games, but I think they have the advantage here at home, and also having already played in The Hall Of Fame Game. Trevor Lawrence is going to do much better under Pederson, and the addition of Travis Etienne in the backfield is huge. The Browns have so many off-field distractions still going on, I can't see how they focus here at all; lay the short points, the play is the Jags! AAA Sports |
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08-12-22 | Falcons v. Lions +1 | 27-23 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 29 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Lions. Dating back to 2016, the Falcons are the NFL's worst preseason team, going 2-16 SU and 1-17 ATS. Marcus Mariota is now the starting QB in Atlanta. The Lions haven't been much better, going just 1-12 SU their last 13 preseason contests. I like the energy that Dan Campbell brings to this Lions team and I expect him to take this 2022 preseason very seriously. Both teams are rebuilding, but Detroit has more pieces in place. This one MEANS more to the Lions; grab the points! AAA Sports |
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08-11-22 | Orioles +1.5 v. Red Sox | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
10* ORIOLES RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) I played the Orioles on the "runline" last night in their 6-5 outright home victory over Toronto, and I expect them to carry that momentum over here. Boston has lost 4 straight and has many issues across the board. The Orioles 58-52 and I give them a BIG nod on the bump tonight. Dean Kremer is 4-3 with a 3.43 ERA for the Orioles, while Josh Winckowksi is just 5-5 with a 4.68 ERA for the Red Sox (he's just 3-3 with a ballooned 6.29 ERA in all home games as well.) The oddsmakers are slow in recognizing the very real momentum that Baltimore has created for itself right now and while I do think the outright win is possible, in the end let's lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance; the play is Baltimore on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-11-22 | Giants -1.5 v. Patriots | Top | 23-21 | Win | 100 | 82 h 50 m | Show |
10* GIANTS (GOW) Many feel that with Saquon Barkley back and healthy this year, and with the coaching change in New York, that the Giants will be able to exceed their season win total of 7.5. Others think they could even compete for the NFC East title, with the Cowboys possibly taking a step back again this year. The Patriots did better than expected last year. Mac Jones did better than expected last year. The Pats will turn to Brian Hoyer and Bailey Zappe in this one though. Although this is just a preseason game, it's still intereting to note that the Giants are 5-1 ATS the last 6 in this series. New England does take the preseason seriously, but I still feel this one "means" so much more to Brian Daboll and his new staff. They have to hit the ground running. And he'll be more prepared now to face his former boss as well. Everything points to a comfortable win and cover for the visitors, the play is New York! AAA Sports |
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08-11-22 | Marlins +1.5 v. Phillies | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 5 h 50 m | Show | |
8* MARLINS RUNLINE (ROUT) After dropping the first 2 games of this series, I like the Marlins to, at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Because of that, the call here will be to grab the visitors on the "runline" option. Yesterday the Fish fell 4-3, rallying for 3 runs in eighth inning to secure the victory. Edward Cabrera is 2-1 with a 2.61 ERA for the Marlins. He most recently tossed 5 scoreless innings against the Cubs last Friday, walking 3 and striking out 8. Kyle Gibson is 7-4 with a 4.36 ERA for the Phillies. He's coming off a strong outing as well, allowing 1 run over 8 innings in a win over the Nationals. With Philadelphia looking ahead to a tough series starting at the Mets tomorrow night, I think the home side gets caught flat-footed here. While the outright is possible, the official call will be to grab the visitors on the runline! AAA Sports |
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08-10-22 | Pirates +1.5 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
10* PIRATES RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) Arizona has taken the first 2 games of this series, but I'm expecting the Pirates to bounce back in the finale. Conversely, after 3 straight wins, I'm expecting a predictable "letdown" here from the Diamondbacks (note that Arizona is just 2-7 in its last 9 after 3 or more straight wins in a row.) More than anything though, I really do feel that this starting pitching matchup is more evenly matched than what Las Vegas is trying to make us think. The visitors hand the ball to Mitch Keller, who is 3-8 with a 4.21 ERA. He's coming off a gem, allowing 1 run over 6 innings in a 1-0 loss to the Orioles on Friday. Keller has now posted a minuscule 1.74 ERA over his past 5 trips to the hill spanning 31 frames of work. The home side sees Madison Bumgarner toe the slab, and he's 6-10 with a 3.96 ERA. He's coming off a "dud," getting shelled for 5 runs off 10 hits over 5 innings vs. the Rockies on Firday. Look for Keller to be the difference here and while I do think an outright victory is possible, the official call will be to grab the visitors on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-10-22 | Rangers +1.5 v. Astros | 8-4 | Win | 118 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
8* RANGERS RUNLINE (SPECIAL) What Justin Verlander is doing this season is incredible. Regression is imminent though at some point, and today is the day in my estimation! It's impossible to find any faults in Verlander's game this year, as he's 15-3 with a 1.73 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. The Rangers went 2-2 against Cleveland over the weekend, but won the opener here 7-5 yesterday. The Rangers and Glenn Otto are going to hang tough again here on Wednesday as well. Otto is 4-8 with a 5.31 ERA. He's slowly been regaining his form since returning from COVID, and he's 0-1 with a 3.48 ERA in 2 starts vs. the Astros this year. Some minor regression from Verlander, combined with some minor improvement from Otto sees this one being decided late, or even in extras; and because of that, the play is indeed Texas on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-10-22 | Braves v. Red Sox +1.5 | 8-4 | Loss | -124 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
8* RED SOX RUNLINE (DESTRUCTION) This is a mini 2-game interleague series. Off yesterday's 9-6 loss, I think that Boston will bounce back here and at the very least, earn the comfortable "cover" on the runline option. Kyle Wright is 13-5 with a 3.22 ERA for the Braves and while he went 4-0 in five starts in July with a 2.64 ERA, he got rocked in his first start in August for 6 runs off 7 hits over 6 innings in a 6-4 loss to the Mets on Thursday (matched a season high for runs, while allowing 4 home runs, the most he's ever conceded in a single start.) That doesn't bode well for Wright heading to Boston, as he's 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA in 2 career starts vs. the Red Sox. Pivetta went 0-3 with a 9.38 ERA in 5 starts in July, but he looked a lot better in his first start in August, conceding 3 runs over 5 innings in a no-decision to the Royals on Thursday. I expect Wright and the Braves to bring the best out of Pivetta here at home, who will look to build off his last solid performance. The outright is possible, but great value here with the Red Sox on the runline! AAA Sports |
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08-09-22 | Rangers v. Astros UNDER 8 | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -119 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
10* UNDER Rangers/Astros (ASSASSIN) What do you base your Over/Under picks on? Do you simply look at the offensive and defensive averages of each side, then make an educated guess based on the line, or do you delve a little deeper? From a situational stand-point, I think this one sets up super well for a lower-scoring "duel." Both teams have played A LOT recently, and each finally had the day off yesterday (the Astros had to play 19 games over 18 days, while the Rangers also played 18 consecutive games before having Monday off.) More than anything though, both these starting pitchers have been "on point' and enter on top form. The Rangers' Martin Perez is 9-2 with a 2.47 ERA this year. He's 2-0 with a 1.44 ERA over his last 4 starts and he's 1-0 with a 0.56 ERA in in two starts vs. the Astros this year. His counterpart Jose Urquidy is 10-4 with a 3.62 ERA this year overall and 5-1 with a 2.29 ERA over his last nine starts, and 4-0 with a 2.04 ERA in 6 career outings against Texas. No need to overthink this one; this one has "duel" written all over it, so the play is the under! AAA Sports |
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08-08-22 | Blue Jays v. Orioles +1.5 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
10* ORIOLES RUNLINE (GOW) Once again I think the Blue Jays are getting too much respect on the road here. They went 2-2 in Minnesota over the weekend, but after yesterday's 3-2 victory, I think they'll struggle here vs. the surging Orioles. Baltimore had won five in a row before an 8-1 loss to Pittsburgh yesterday. The Orioles are 31-21 at home, while the Jays are 26-27 on the road. Jordan Lyles is 8-8 with a 4.40 ERA for the Orioles, while Yusei Kikuchi is 4-5 with a 4.86 ERA for the Jays. Each has struggled against his respective opponent today in the past, but note that Kikuchi is 0-3 with a 5.79 ERA on the road, compared to 4-2 with a 4.17 ERA at home. Lyles on the other hand is 5-6 with a 5.70 ERA on the road, and 3-2 witha 2.71 ERA at home. While I do think an outright win isn't out of the question, my official call will be to grab the hungry home side on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-07-22 | Red Sox v. Royals +1.5 | Top | 5-13 | Win | 100 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
10* ROYALS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) Boston's getting too much respect here on the road. This is the finale of a 4-game set and so far KC is 2-1 after winning here by a score of 5-4. The loss drops Boston to 54-54 on the season. Ultimately though, I feel these starting pitchers are very evenly matched. Kutter Krawford is 3-3 with a 3.86 ERA for the Red Sox, while Brad Keller is 5-12 with a 4.61 ERA for the Royals. Rookie Nick Pratto hit a walk-off hone run with 2 outs in the 9th to give the Royals the win last night and all signs point to that momentum getting carried over here. Keller is coming off his worst outing of the year, allowing 8 runs over 6 innings to the White Sox on Tuesday, but he owns a much sharper 3.57 ERA at home, compared to just 5.75 on the road. Keller comes in off a decent outing, allowing 1 run over 6 innings, but he's alternated wins and losses all season. I like Keller to bounce back here at home; the play is Kansas City on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-07-22 | Blue Jays v. Twins +1.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 17 m | Show | |
8* TWINS RUNLINE (SITUATIONAL BLOWOUT) I had a play on Minnesota on the runline option last night and the Twins wouldn't even need the extra 1.5 runs in their outright 7-3 victory. This is the finale of the 4 game series, and the Twins have won the last 2 games and once again I believe they're not getting enough respect from the oddsmakers in this matchup. The Jays are good, but their achilles heel is their play on the road where they're a pedestrian 25-27. The Twins on the other hand are now 31-24 at home. Kevin Gausman is 8-8 with a 3.06 ERA for the Jays, while Chris Archer is 2-5 with a 4.05 ERA for Minnesota. Guasman is coming off his best start of the year, going 8 scoreless and striking out 10 in a win over the Rays. Can anyone say "letdown" spot here?! Note that he's 0-4 with a 7.30 ERA in 8 career starts vs. the Twins as well. Archer won't be lacking for motivation here, as he hasn't won in 4 starts. He's coming off a hard-luck no-decision vs. Detroit, allowing 2 runs over 5 innings while striking out 8. The outright win is possible here, but the official call will be to grab the home side on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-07-22 | Reds +1.5 v. Brewers | 4-2 | Win | 113 | 5 h 57 m | Show | |
8* REDS RUNLINE (ANNIHILATION) The Brewers really need a win and they have their "ace" on the mound, but they're playing super poorly right now and I think they're way overpriced today. And that really does swing value here onto the Reds on the runline option. The Reds have won 4 of their last 6 after yesterday's 7-5 win here, while Milwaukee has now dropped 5 of its last 6. Graham Ashcraft is 5-2 with a 4.12 ERA for the Reds and he enters with a ton of confidence after his best start of his career, going 8 1/3's inning in a 2-1 win over the Marilns on Tuesday, allowing 0 runs off 5 hits, striking out 3 and walking none in the unfortunate no-decision. Corbin Burnes is 8-4 with a 2.49 ERA for the Brewers, but he comes in off a pedestrian outing, allowing 4 runs and 5 walks over 5 innings in a loss to the lowly Pirates on Tuesday. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going with the visitors on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-07-22 | Rays v. Tigers +1.5 | 7-0 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 25 m | Show | |
8* TIGERS RUNLINE (SPECIAL) Detroit bounced back from 3 straight losses with a 9-1 win here yesterday. I think the Tigers build off that victory with another big effort here. Conversely, after 3 straight victories, the Rays finally had a letdown yesterday, and with a day off before a much tougher 2-game mini interleague series at Milwaukee, followed by series vs. the Orioles and Yankees, everything points to the visitors getting caught "looking ahead" here. Drew Rasmussen is 6-4 with a 3.06 ERA for Tampa Bay, while Matt Manning is 0-0 with a 3.46 ERA for the Tigers after 13 innings of work. "For the first time back since early in the season, it felt pretty good," Manning said after returning from injury. "There's nothing like playing some big league baseball." Manning comes in fresh here and I like him to match Rasmussen, who has been solid and is off a hard-luck loss. But in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm grabbing the hungry home side on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-07-22 | Astros v. Guardians +1.5 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 4 m | Show | |
8* GUARDIANS RUNLINE (DESTRUCTION) Cleveland enters off a 4-1 win over Houston on Saturday and I'm expecting it to carry that momentum over here in the finale of this 4 game series. The Astros took the first 2 games. Houston has a night off after this before returning home to face the Rangers and I believe it'll get caught looking ahead. Cleveland's played much better at home this year (27-22) and Astros' starter Christian Javier and Guardians' starter Triston McKenzie are evenly matched. Javier is 6-7 with a 3.24 ERA and 1.05 WHIP, while McKenzie is 7-8 with a 3.38 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. Both have struggled somewhat of late, but the slight nod here goes to McKenzie on his home field. In a contest that I see being decided late or in extras, I'm grabbing the home side on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-06-22 | Braves +1.5 v. Mets | 2-6 | Loss | -200 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
5* BRAVES RUNLINE (BIG-CHALK) I play totals. I play underdogs. I play half times and prop wagers. I also play favorites, especially in certain situations like this. In a contest that could be decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance in the second game of this double-header. Max Fried is 10-3 with a 2.58 ERA for the Braves, while Max Scherzer is 7-2 with a 2.13 ERA for the Mets. For all intents and purposes, let's call these guys a "wash." The Mets opened with 6-4 win in the series opener, but Atlanta bounced back with a 9-6 victory last night. Two of the heavyweights in the National League facing off here in the Big Apple and I'm looking for the defending champs to deliver; the play is Atlanta on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-06-22 | Blue Jays v. Twins +1.5 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
8* TWINS RUNLINE (BAIL-OUT) Toronto's Achilles Heel this season has been its play on the road this year, as after yesterday's 6-5 loss here, it's now 25-26 away from friendly confines. The Twins' strength this season has been their play at home, now 30-24 in Minnesota after yesterday's victory. Mitch White is 1-2 with a 3.70 ERA, but he's making his first start for Toronto since coming over from the Dodgers in a trade and I think he'll predictably struggle in this difficult road venue. Dylan Bundy is 6-5 with a 5.04 ERA for the Twins. He gave up 3 runs over 5 innings vs. the Padres in his last outing and he's 5-5 with a 3.76 ERA in 17 career appearances vs. the Jays. Minnesota has everything in place to win this contest outright, but the official call will be to grab the home side on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-06-22 | Astros v. Guardians +1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
10* GUARDIANS RUNLINE (AL GOM) Cleveland had won 4 of 5 heading into its series against Houston, but it's dropped the first 2 games of this series. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to recommend grabbing the revenge-minded home side on the runline option here. Cleveland is 7-2 in its last 9 in trying to avenge 2 straight home losses against an opponent. Houston sees Luis Garcia toe the slab, and he's 8-7 with a 3.81 ERA. He's lost 2 straight, most recently allowing 4 runs over 5 innings in a 5-3 setback at Oakland, before conceding 3 runs to the Red Sox on Monday. Cal Quantrill counters for the home side. He's 7-5 with a 4.08 ERA. He's been hit or miss of late as well, but he has a 3.95 ERA in four lifetime appearances vs. the Astros, and I expect him to, at the very least, match Garcia inning for inning. While the outright win isn't out of the question, the official call will be to grab the home side on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-05-22 | Angels +1.5 v. Mariners | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
10* ANGELS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) The Angels won't be in the playoffs, but I like their chances here on the road in Seattle in the opener of this series. Last night LA hit 7 solo home runs and lost 8-7 at home to Oakland. The Mariners return home from a 7 game road trip. After taking 2 of 3 from the Yanks, I'm expecting a bit of a letdown here. I'm calling these starters a "wash." Seattle goes with Robbie Ray, who is 8-8 with a 4.11 ERA, while LA counters with Patrick Sandoval, who is 3-7 with a 3.61 ERA. Each has enjoyed considerable success off his opponent tonight in the past. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extra time, I'm going to grab the visitors on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-04-22 | Raiders v. Jaguars OVER 33 | Top | 27-11 | Win | 100 | 203 h 10 m | Show |
10* OVER (TOW) The Raiders are favored to win the Hall Of Fame Game this year. They might cover, but whoever does win in the end, I'm definitely expecting a higher-scoring "shootout" to kick off the 2022/23 NFL season. The Jags finished 3-14 last year. They have a new coach and a new look and they'll be eager to show that on the field of play. Las Vegas stumbled over the second half last year, but managed to get into the Playoffs after 4 straight wins to end the regular season. The Raiders then lost 26-19 to the Bengals in the Wildcard round. Neither team's starters will see much, if any, action in this one. In the past, teams have struggled to score points in this game, but with new coaches on both sides of the field, and solid backup quarterbacks, we can expect a few touchdowns in this contest; this numer is low, the play is the over! AAA Sports |
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08-04-22 | Red Sox v. Royals +1.5 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
8* ROYALS RUNLINE (DESTRUCTION) Boston's 3-game win streak came to an end in its 6-1 loss at Houston yesterday. The Red Sox are going to have their hands full on the road again in my opinion with a Royals team looking to rebound off a 1-2 series loss at the White Sox. Boston sees Nick Pivetta toe the slab, and he's 8-8 with a 4.47 ERA, while the Royals counter with Kris Bubic, who is 2-6 with a 5.45 ERA. Bubic though has looked better of late, allowing 5 runs over his last 20 innings of work, striking out 14 and walking just 5. Pivetta hasn't won since June 24th. I give the slight nod to Bubic at home in this matchup. Great value here with the extra 1.5 runs of insurance; the play is KC on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-04-22 | Astros v. Guardians +1.5 | Top | 6-0 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
10* GUARDIANS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) Playing against Justin Verlander here. He's 14-3 with a 1.81 ERA. Over his last 6 starts he's gone 6-0 with a 0.86 ERA. And this is after Tommy John surgery! Unbelievable, considering many thought his career was coming to an end when he was still in Detroit. At some point regression is going to set in though. And now Verlander faces a Cleveland team that's been playing much better of late, winning three of its last four, including a 7-4 victory at home over Arizona yesterday. Verlander is a pedestrian 21-24 with a 4.61 ERA in 53 career starts vs. Cleveland. The surging Guardians now sit only one game behind the Twins for the AL Central lead. Zach Plesac has had difficulty with Houston in the past, but with Verlander on the mound, I expect him to elevate his game here and match his counterpart inning for inning. Plesac is 2-9 with a 4.33 ERA this season, but owns a more respectable 3.05 ERA at home, compared to 5.33 on the road. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm grabbing the hungry home side on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-03-22 | Dodgers v. Giants +1.5 | 3-0 | Loss | -122 | 13 h 37 m | Show | |
8* GIANTS RUNLINE (SPECIAL) The Giants have struggled since the All Star break, losing 10 of 13. They went into the break having won 5 of 6. They then came out of the break and lost 4 straight to these very Dodgers. Now they've lost the first 2 games of this series vs. LA as well. I think the Giants finally dig deep here though and, at the very least, keep this one competitive until the final moments. Alex Cobb is 3-5 with a 4.06 ERA for the Giants. Despite going winless over his last 10 starts and going 0-4 in that span, Cobb owns a highly-respectable 3.36 ERA over that time. He'll be opposed by Julio Urias, who is 10-6 with a 2.71 ERA. Urias has had the Giants' number throughout his career, but I'm expecting Cobb to match him inning for inning. I lok for the Giants 6-game losing streak in this series to finally end this evening; that said, the official call will be to grab the home side on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-03-22 | Reds v. Marlins -1.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 115 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
10* MARLINS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) Off B2B low-scoring losses, I expect the Marlins to take full advantage of today's matchup and not only win, but win by a significant margin. And because of that, I'm going to suggest to lay the 1.5 runs for the much better price. This is a major starting pitching matchup, one that's so lop-sided that I feel the runline for the Marlins is definitely justified. The visitors see Mike Minor toe the slab, and he's just 1-7 with a ballooned 6.31 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. Marlins' ace Sandy Alcantara is 9-4 with a 1.99 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. Miami goes up early and never looks back this evening; the play is the Marlins on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-03-22 | Orioles v. Rangers -145 | 6-3 | Loss | -145 | 6 h 48 m | Show | |
8* RANGERS (MISMATCH) The Oriole have been playing well over the last month and a half. They're off back-to-back victories to open up this series, but I believe that the Rangers will bounce back this afternoon with their "ace" on the mound. The Orioles are severely overmatched in this starting pitching matchup. The visitors see Kyle Bradish toe the slab, and he's 1-4 with a 7.01 ERA. The home side hands the ball to Martin Perez, who is 9-2 with a 2.52 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. With their ace on the mound, and the double revenge factor working in their favor as well, I'm laying what I feel to be a very reasonable mid-sized price on the Rangers this afternoon! AAA Sports |
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08-02-22 | Dodgers v. Giants +1.5 | Top | 9-5 | Loss | -133 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
10* GIANTS RUNLINE (NL GOM) The Giants went into the All Star break having won 5 of 6, but then they came out and lost 4 straight to the Dodgers, 3 straight to Arizona, it then went 3-1 against Chicago, before then losing yesterday's opener here to LA by a score of 8-2. It's really now or never for the Giants to try and start making up ground in the Wild card. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to lay the small price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Tyler Anderson is 11-1 with a 2.61 ERA, but his numbers are poised to take a "hit" tonight in my estimation. Regression does seem imminent! At the very least, I like the hungry Alex Wood, who is 7-8 with a 4.11 ERA to match his overachieving counterpart inning for inning (owns a 3.51 ERA at home.) While I truly believe an outright victory is in the cards, my official call will be to grab the home side on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-02-22 | Cubs +1.5 v. Cardinals | 0-6 | Loss | -140 | 10 h 22 m | Show | |
8* CUBS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to suggest laying the pick-em price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The Cubs have had a day off after losing 3 of 4 at San Francisco over the weekend. St. Louis has also had a day off after taking 2 of 3 from the Nationals. But the bottom line for this picks is, I feel that these starters are more evenly matched than what Las Vegas is trying to lead us to believe. Keegan Thompson is 8-4 with a 3.16 ERA this year. He's coming off a dominant win: "That was as good as we've seen Keegan," Cubs manager David Ross said. "He continues to build." The home side counters with Adam Wainwright, who is 7-8 with a 3.28 ERA. Wainwright is also coming off a strong performance, so all signs point to a classic "duel" here on Tuesday. For all the reasons listed above, the play is Chicago on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-02-22 | Mariners +1.5 v. Yankees | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
8* MARINERS RUNLINE (SPECIAL) I lost with Seattle on the runline option here yesterday, but where that pick came up short, today's has all the makings of a great bounce back opportunity for the hungry visiting side. These starters are evenly matched. Logan Gilbert is 10-4 with a 2.78 ERA and 1.15 WHIP for the Mariners, while Jameson Taillon is 10-2 with a 3.72 ERA and 1.16 WHIP for the Yanks. For all intents and purposes, these guys are a "wash." Seattle is 4-7 since ending the first half on a 14-game winning streak. I look for Gilbert to rekindle some of the previous fire here and at the very least I'll look for this contest to be decided late, or even in extra innings; the play is Seattle on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-01-22 | Mariners +1.5 v. Yankees | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -123 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
10* MARINERS RUNLINE (GOW) The Mariners are coming off a tight 3-2 loss at Houston last night. Seattle will look to bounce back here in New York in what shapes up to be a favorable starting pitching matchup for it. The Yankees are off an 8-6 loss here at home to the Royals last night. I had Kansas City on the runline option in that one, and I'm expecting another big effort here from the Mariners as well. But as I said off the top, more than anything this is a matchup that favors the Mariners and starting pitcher Marco Gonzalez, who is 6-10 with a 3.66 ERA this year, and who has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer 15 times already this year (which includes in his most recent trip to toe the slab, conceding 2 runs over 7 innings in a win over Texas.) His counterpart Domingo German enters on terrible form, as he's 0-1 with an 8.22 ERA, allowing 7 runs over his last 7 2/3's frames of work. While I do think the outright win is a possibility, in the end the value here on the runline option is just too good to turn down; the play is Seattle! AAA Sports |
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07-31-22 | Cubs +1.5 v. Giants | 0-4 | Loss | -130 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
8* CUBS RUNLINE (BAIL-OUT BLOWOUT) I had a play on the Cubs on the runline option last night and I believe they're worth the price of admission here as well in Sunday night MLB action. Carlos Rodon is 8-6 with a 3.18 ERA for the Giants this year, but he's a pedestrian 1-2 with a 4.74 ERA in 5 career appearances vs. the Cubbies. He's also winless in his last 3 starts, having been shelled for 10 runs over his last 11 innings of work. Adrian Sampson is 0-1 with a 3.23 ERA for the Cubs. In six starts this year Sampson has been great, allowing 3 runs or fewer in five of them. He's coming off a season-best performance as well on Monday vs. the Pirates, going 7 innings and allowing just 2 runs. In a contest that I see being decided late or even in extras, I'm grabbing the visitors on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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07-31-22 | Diamondbacks +1.5 v. Braves | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 26 m | Show | |
8* DIAMONDBACKS RUNLINE (SPECIAL) Arizona won 3 in a row before coming to Atlanta, but it's dropped the first 2 games of this series by scores of 5-2 and 6-2. I'm expecting a much more competitive affair here in the finale though, and I believe that the Braves get caught looking ahead to a day off, before a 2-game mini-series with Philadelphia. The bottom line here though is that I expect Arizona starter Merrill Kelly to match Braves' starter Max Fried inning for inning tonight. Kelly is 10-5 with a 3.04 ERA, while Fried is 10-3 with a 2.73 ERA. Kelly though has been exceptional of late, going 4-0 with a 1.57 ERA over his last 5 starts. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to grab the visitors on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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07-31-22 | Royals +1.5 v. Yankees | Top | 8-6 | Win | 120 | 5 h 2 m | Show |
10* ROYALS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) Kansas City has lost 5 in a row, and the first 3 of this series. both of those are important to note for us here on this play, as KC is 7-2 in its last nine after 5 or more straight losses in a row. It's also 10-5 in its last 15 in trying to avenge 3 or more straight losses against an opponent. New York's been great, but with a more interesting series here starting tomorrow against the Mariners, the Yankees get caught looking ahead. Zach Greinke is 3-6 with a 4.35 ERA for the Royals, while Jordan Montgomery is 3-3 with a 3.50 ERA for the Yanks. For argument's sake, I'm calling these guys a "wash." Greinke has really been on point of late, producing scoreless outings in 2 of his last 3 trips to the hill. The conditions are definitely right for a competitive battle; the play is KC on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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07-30-22 | Cubs +1.5 v. Giants | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
10* CUBS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) The Cubs have won 7 of their last 8 games, including yesterday's contest by a score of 4-2. Both teams are in need of a victory tonight and in a competitive contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to suggest laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Drew Smyly gets the nod for the visiting side and I think the veteran keeps the momentum rolling here, most recently he gave up 2 runs over 6 innings in a win over the Phillies. Jake Junis is 4-2 with a 2.98 ERA, but we can expect Smyly to, at the very least, match his younger counterpart inning for inning. And in a scenario like that, the value inevitably swings to the undervalued underdog; the play is Chicago on the runline option! AAA Sports |