10* UNDER Dodgers/Padres.

Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but we're finally expecting more of a defensive affair here on Monday in the fourth game of this series. LA has now seen the total go "over" the number in six straight after last night's 8-2 victory, while SD has seen the total go "over" in the first three games of this series (which is in fact significant to note, as the Padres have in fact seen the total go "under" the number in seven of their last ten after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row at home. We have two really decent starters going head to head, with Tony Gonsolin (6-4, 4.11 ERA) getting the nod for the Dodgers and Seth Lugo (4-5, 3.54) countering for the Friars. All signs point to a classic "duel," finally in the finale; the play is the "under!" 

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10* Padres runline (NL WEST GOM)

We like the Padres to, at the very least, keep this one close enough to comfortably cover with the spread option. After droppping the opener 10-5, the Padres bounced back with an 8-3 victory last night. THis is the third game of a four-game series. Both starters are making debuts for their new teams, but we give the advantage to veteran Rich Hill (7-10, 4.76 ERA) here at home. He'll face off against the volatile Lance Lynn (7-9, 6.32.) Look for the home-field advantage to be the difference-maker here, and while clearly the outright is possible, we feel more comfortable laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance; the play is San Diego on the runline option!

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10* OVER Ottawa/Saskatchewan (NON-CONF TOW)

We're expecting this non-conference game to be less intense defensively, and more wide-open and high-scoring than what this O/U line is suggesting. These teams are in dire need of a victory, as Ottawa is 3-4, and Saskatchewan is 3-4 as well. We like betting on motivated teams when we're betting an "over," no matter what the sport is. Saskatchewan is off three straight SU losses, which is significant to note, as the Riders have seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 12 after three or more SU losses in a row. Ottawa had won two straight high-scoring OT games as an underdog before last week's low-scoring 16-12 upset loss to Hamilton. We expect the RedBlacks to regain their offensive form here though in what we anticipate will be a wide-open high-scoring "shootout." This number is low, the play is the "over!"

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10* OVER Sparks/Mystics.

We base our picks on many different things. This particular one sets up fantastic from a "situational" stand-point. LA has seen the total go UNDER the number in five straight games after its 79-77 loss here just two nights ago (but note, the Sparks have seen the total go "over" the number in seven of their last ten after playing to five or more straight "unders" in a row.) LA has lost three straight, but the Sparks have also seen the total go "over" the number in three of their last four after three or more SU losses in a row. Washington snapped a 3-game slide with the much-needed victory, but barely held, unable to even cover the small 3-point spread on Friday night. Expect the Mystics to push the pace and for this total to fly "over" the number sooner, rather than later; the play is indeed on the "over!" 

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10* Orioles (IL GOM)

The Mets were sellers at the trade deadline, getting rid of both Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander. They're lacking identity and have lost four straight and five of their last six, including losing five straight on the road as well. Baltimore has the best record in the AL and we expect it to dominate here on Saturday in this lop-sided starting pitching matchup. The visitors go with Tyler Megill (6-4, 5.17 ERA), who has been called up from the minors to make this start. He'll be opposed by Kyle Gibson (10-6, 4.53), who is 2-0 in his past five starts, working into at least the sixth inning in all six of his July starts; lay the price with confidence, the play is Baltimore!

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10* Twins (DESTRUCTION)

Arizona continues to slide. The D-Backs just lost three of four at San Fran over the weekend and we think they're ripe for the picking here for Minnesota. The Twins snapped a 5-game losing streak by taking two of three at St. Louis over the weekend and we expect them to build off that interleague series victory with another one here at home vs. this floundering visiting side. Two really good starters here going H2H, as AZ goes with Merrill Kelly (9-5, 3.23 ERA), while the home side counters with Bailey Ober (6-5, 3.19.) Great line value here ultimatley, the play is Minnesota!

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10* Red Sox (ASSASSIN)

Toronto went 16-3 vs. the Red Sox last year, but Boston is 7-0 so far in the season series in 2023. The Jays'll get off the schneid at some point, but not in this matchup. Toronto goes with the volatile Alek Manoah (2-8, 5.87 ERA), while the home side counters with James Paxton (6-2, 3.34.) This line could/should in fact be much larger in our estimation, so that swings the value in favor of Boston!

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10* OVER Connecticut/Indiana (U OF U)

We're expecting more of a wide-open offensive affair in this one. Connecticut is 4-1 in its last five, but it's coming off a lower-scoring 79-69 win over Minnesota. Indiana has seen the total go "under" in four straight after its narrow 72-71 home win here over Phoenix on Monday. A whole lot of collective "unders," but that fact has only helped in driving today's number a few points lower than it normally would/should be. These teams played a competitive game in Connecticut at the start of the season, with the Sun holding on for the 81-78 victory. All signs point to another competitive game, but one that flies well "over" the posted number once it's all said and done!

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10* Jets (NFLX GOY)

DeShaun Watson went just 1 for 5 in his first preseason series last year, and the Browns starting QB will likely see very little time here as well. Maybe one snap? Aaron Rodgers should see slightly more time, which obviously great works in four favor here. Cleveland's offense revolves around its run, but the Jets' strength defensively is stopping the rush. Finally, because this game will mostly be played by the back-ups and wannabe's, the advantage goes to the Jets again here with backup QB Zach Wilson playing with a chip on his shoulder after getting shoved to the side because of Rodgers coming to town; grab the points, the play is New York!

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10* Yankees (AL EAST GOM)

After dropping the first two games of this series, we like the Yanks to bounce back in the finale. New York has now lost 3 straight, but note that it's 7-3 in its last ten after three or more straight losses in a row. It's also 8-3 in its last 11 in trying to avenge two or more straight home losses against an opponent. Shane McClanahan (11-1, 3.00 ERA), has struggled big over his last five games, without a decision while posting a 6.45 ERA. Gerritt Cole (9-2, 2.64) here at home in this important contest and at this price is the correct call; lay the price, the play is New York!

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10* OVER Liberty/Sparks.

Both sides have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but we're finally expecting some offensive fireworks here on the West Coast on Tuesday night. These teams just played here two nights ago and the Liberty came out on top by a score of 87-79. It was the Sparks third straight "under," but note that LA has in fact seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 12 after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. New York leads the East and it enjoys a couple days off after this before a big matchup in Minnesota vs. the red hot Lynx. In what we anticipate will be a very fast-paced affair, expect this total to fly well "over" the number before the final buzzer sounds!

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8* Orioles RUNLINE (CHOKE-OUT)

This is an important divisional series, and the Orioles drew "first blood" last night, winning by a score of 4-2. Toronto can't lose games to the division leader and expect to make the playoffs. The Orioles can continue to stick the dagger into the Jays' dwindling hopes. In a contest that we see being decided late, or even in extras, we're going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Kyle Bradish (6-6, 3.29 ERA, 1.14 WHIP) has been a consistent bright spot for the Orioles all year. He's battle-tested. Hyun-Jin Ryu though is making his season debut for the Jays. He's being thrown to the wolves here in his first start. The outright is possible, but we feel more comfortable taking the visitors on the runline option!

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8* Brewers (DESTRUCTION)

A common sense play here more than anything. Milwaukee has now lost four straight after yesterday's 5-3 series-opening loss. The Brewers are now 57-50 and second in the NL Central. We expect Freddy Peralta (6-8, 4.46 ERA) to be on top of his game here and to get the better of his counterpart Josiah Gray (7-8, 3.27.) We're banking on the Brewers in finding a way to deliver here in this revenge bounce-back spot; lay the price the play is Milwaukee!

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10* UNDER Rays/Yanks.

We have an important divisional matchup here, but it's one that's going to be dominated by the men on the mound in our opinion. Tampa Bay is 64-44 overall, but just 27-25 on the road. New York is only 55-50 overall, but it's 32-24 at home. Tampa went 2-1 at Houston over the weekend, with the last two games flying "over" the number. New York lost two of three to Baltimore here at home over the weekend, and the final two also eclipsed the posted number as far as the total is concerned. But everything points to a "duel" here with the Rays' Tyler Glasnow (4-3, 3.36 ERA) facing off against the Yanks' Domingo German (5-7, 4.77.) This should have a "playoff-like" atmosphere about it, and everything points to runs being at a premium in the opener; the play is indeed on the under!

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10* OVER Mariners/Diamondbacks.

The first two games of this series have gone "under" the number, but all signs point to a more high-scoring affair here on Sunday in our opinion. This is just a case of both Luis Castillo (6-7, 3.02 ERA) of the Mariners and Merril Kelly (9-4, 3.12) f the D-Backs being in the "wrong place," at the "wrong time!" The overall situaation points to this one flying "over" the number sooner, rather than later.

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8* Rangers runline (MISMATCH)

After dropping the first two games of this series, and with nealry 70% of the public money on the home side, we're expecting the Rangers to, at the very least, take this one right down to the wire and in a contest that we see being decided late, or even in extras, we're going to grab the 1.5 runs of insurance here with the Rangers. Cody Bradford is 2-1 with a 4.62 ERA and 1.14 WHIP for Texas. He owns a sharp 32 to 8 strike-out-to-walk-ratio as well. The Padres counter with Blake Snell, who is 7-8 with a 2.61 ERA. We just see Bradford matching Snell inning for inning, and in a contest like that we like the visitors on the runline option!

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10* Storm (ASSASSIN)

The Storm just snapped a lengthy losing streak with an 83-74 win at Chicago as 4.5-point dogs last time out, and we believe they'll keep that momentum roling here against the lowly Fever. Seattle plays with the added incentive of revenge here as well after Indiana scored the 80-68 road win as a 2.5-point dog back in June. THe Fever are just 6-18 and off back-to-back road losses at LA. We feel the outright win is a very real possibility, but the official call will be to grab as many points as you can; the play is Seattle!

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8* Rangers runline (SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION)

We like the Rangers to bounce back on Saturday after falling 7-1 to the Padres in yesterday's series opener. The Padres have been inconsistent all year and we don't trust Yu Darvish (7-7, 4.80 ERA) at all. He'll be opposed by Martin Perez (8-3, 4.91), who we feel is the correct call for sure. The Rangers have responded well in this spot for bettors and while we do think the outright is possible, we're going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs; the play is Texas on the runline!

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10* RIDERS (GOW)

After winning the Grey Cup and despite a QB change, the Toronto Argonauts have so far not skipped a beat, going 5-0 SU and 5-0 ATS as well. The Riders are 3-3 SU and 2-3-1 ATS, but we're expecting the Riders to, at the very least, take this one right down to the wire and give the unbeaten Argos a run for their money here in this NEUTRAL site affair in Halifax. This is a weird game in a way for both sides, as it'll be held in Halifax at a neutral location, dubbed teh Touchdown Atlantic Game. This is the first time these teams have met this year, but it's a double-revenge scenario as well for the Riders after losing both games last year (30-24 and 31-21.) Also note that Saskatchewan is 2-1 on the road this year. No outright, but closer than expected; grab the points, the play is Saskatchewan!

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8* Angels RUNLINE (SPECIAL)

LA had won 8 of 9 before last night's 4-1 series opening loss here. The Angels are 3-1 in their last four after a loss. We think they'll respond here vs. the Jay's "weak link" in Alek Manoah (2-8, 6.10 ERA), who has been a major disappointment. He'll be opposed by Reid Detmers (2-7, 4.38), who we feel is the correct call in this bounce-back spot. That said, lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs; the play is LA on the runline option!

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10* Padres (ASSASSIN)

Dane Dunning (8-3, 3.18 ERA) gets the start for the Rangers in this one, but note that he's just 1-2 with a poor 4.98 ERA in four July starts so far. Joe Musgrove (9-3, 3.25) counters for the home side. He's 5-1 with a 3.40 ERA in eight starts at Petco this year, and despite a 2-3 record vs. the Rangers lifetime, he does spot the sharp 3.62 ERA over that span (eight appearances.) Look for home field advantage to play a part here as well; lay the price with confidence, the play is San Diego!

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10* UNDER Mystics/Wings (BLOOD-BATH)

These teams are 1-1 in the season series so far, but both games went "under" the number. We're expecting a similar defensive affair here as well now in the third matchup. Dallas has now seen the total go "over" the number in four straight, and note that the Wings have still seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. Washington has been trading high-scoring contests, with lower-scoring "unders" over its last six games, and off a 97-92 loss last time out, we're expecting this pattern to continue; this number is high, the play is the "under!" 

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10* Hamilton (BLOOD-BATH)

We like Hamilton to, at the very least, take this one right down to the wire and give Ottawa everything it can handle. The Ti-Cats are now 2-4, while the RedBlacks are 3-3. Hamilton managed a 21-13 win over RedBlacks in Week 5, and after back-to-back upset victories (both in OT!), everything points to a predictable letdown here for Ottawa. The Ti-Cats are the more desperate team in this fight and while clearly the outright victory isn't out of the question, the official call will be to grab the points with the TI-CATS in what we feel is a great overall situational play!

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10* OVER Fever/Sparks (ASSASSIN)

This one sets up great from a situational stand-point to be a higher-scoring shootout in our opinion. The Fever play with revenge after a tight 79-78 loss here just two nights ago, and note that Indiana has in fact seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 in trying to avenge a SU road loss vs. an opponent. LA broke an 8-game slide with that victory, and we're expecting it to come out play at a faster-pace here tonight as well to keep the momentum rolling. As stated off the top, a great situatinoal call for this rematch to fly "over" the posted total sooner, rather than later!

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8* UNDER Angels/Tigers.

These teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but we're expecting more of a "duel" here after the Angels 7-6 win in yesterday's series opener. More than anything though, we really like these starting pitchers and we're predicting a classic "duel" early here in Detroit. The visitors go with ace Shohei Ohtani (8-5, 3.71 ERA, 1.12 WHIP), while the home side counters with the under-rated Michael Lorenzen (5-6, 3.49, 1.09 WHIP.) Expect these two to battle deep and for this total to stay "under" the number once it's all said and done.

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10* Mystics (BLOOD-BATH)

These teams are 1-1 this season, but the Lynx are 2-0 ATS. We like the Mystics to though, at the very least, take this one right down to the wire and find a way to deliver the goods. They're 12-10 and coming off a quality 84-69 win over Phoenix. The Lynx are just 10-13 and they're off an awkward 98-81 loss to Las Vegas in their last outing. And with an ultra-tough East Coast road trip starting in New York, and then B2B games at Connecticut (followed by another home game vs. New York!), there's no question that this sets up as a classic "look ahead" spot for the home side; while the outright is possible, the official call will be to grab as many points as you can with Washington!

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10* UNDER Jays/Dodgers.

The first two games of this series have flown well "over" the number, but we're finally expecting a bit of a "duel" here in the finale. The Jays won the opener by a score of 6-3, before the Dodgers bounced back in yesterday's come-from-behind 8-7 victory. These teams are a couple of the heaviest hitting clubs in the league, but they also have some of the best starting pitching and bullpens. This is a great starting pitching matchup, and after the first two games have plated a lot of runs, we're anticipating a classic "duel" here on Wednesday in LA, as Toronto goes with Yusei Kikuchi (7-3, 3.92 ERA, 1.27 WHIP), while the Dodgers go with Tony Gonsolin (5-3, 3.94, 1.08.) Look for these two competent starters to garner most of the headlines in tomorrow's summaries of this contest; the play is the "under!" 

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8* UNDER Mariners/Twins (DUEL)

Seattle rallied for a 9-7 win last night, after falling 4-3 in the series opener. These two teams are in the playoff hunt, and we're expecting the finale to be more like the first game, as we have two really good starting pitchers squaring off, and all signs point to a classic "duel," as Seattle hands the ball to Bryce Miller (6-3, 3.50 ERA), 0.97 WHIP), while Minnesota counters with Joe Ryan (9-6, 3.88 ERA, 1.05 WHIP.) Finally, note that the Twins have in fact seen the total go "under" the number in three of their last four as well in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent; this number is high, the play is the "under!"

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10* OVER Aces/Sky (WNBA NON-CONF TOW)

These teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but we don't expect a lot of defense to played in this one on Tuesday night, and ultimatley we look for this total to fly "over" the number sooner, rather than later. These teams played in Las Vegas back on June 11th, and while the Sky earned the cover in the 93-80 setback as 13.5-point dogs, the total flew "over" the posted number of 168. We're expecting a similar style pace and similar final combined score here as well once it's all said and done; this number is low, the play is the "over!" 

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10* Phillies (BLOCKBUSTER)

We're expecting Philadelphia to bounce back here after yesterday's 3-2 series-opening defeat. Note that the Phillies are 7-3 in their last ten in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. It's unreal the run the Orioles are on, but regression is imminent at some point, and for us, tonight's the night! The Phillies are third in the NL East and need to make their move. They've responded well in this spot for bettors, and at this price at home with Taijuan Walker on the hill, we're getting great value. Walker is 11-4 with a 4.11 ERA, while his counterpart Kyle Gibson is 9-6 with a pedestrian 4.76 ERA; lay the price, the play is Philadelphia!

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8* Jays RUNLINE (DESTRUCTION)

The Jays went 1-1 in Seattle over the weekend, and are coming off the 4-3 win last night. We think the visitors can keep the momentum rolling here in LA. The Dodgers just went 2-1 at the Rangers, but are coming off an 8-4 loss yesterday. The bottom line with this one though is that this is a starting pitching matchup that definitely favors Toronto. The Jays turn to Jose Berrios (8-7, 3.39 ERA), while the home side counters with the volatile Michael Grove (2-2, 6.40), who remains in a starters role out of neccessity. In a contest that we see being decided late, or even in extras, we're laying the price with confidence for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance; the play is Toronto on the runline option!

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10* RedBlacks (BOB)

We think these teams are evenly matched, and in a contest that we envision being decided by whichever club has its hands on the ball last, we're going to grab the points. Ottawa plays with revenge here after falling 26-15 at home as 6.5-point dogs to the Stamps back in Week 2, and note that the RedBlacks are 3-1 ATS in their last four in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss vs. an opponent. Calgary came from behind to secure a 31-28 OT win over Winnipeg in Week 6, but note that the Stamps are still 0-2 SU/ATS at home this season; for all the reasons listed above, grab as many points as you can with Ottawa!

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10* Mariners (ASSASSIN)

Seattle has come from behind to take the first two games of this series by scores of 3-2 and 9-8, but we don't think it'll have to today facing the Jays' erratic starter Alek Manoah, who enters at a shaky 2-8 with a 6.18 ERA and 1.84 WHIP. With a game at the Dodgers starting tomorrow, the visitors also get caught "looking ahead." Brayan Woo is 1-2 with a 4.74 ERA and 1.26 WHIP for the Mariners, and we're giving him the nod here in this matchup, based solely on the "home field" advantage. With a lengthy road trip up next for the Mariners, look for them to complete the sweep; lay the short price, the play is Seattle!

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10* Liberty (BLOOD-BATH)

This is a great situational play. New York is 15-5 SU and No. 2 in the Eastern Confernece, and while it's 5-1 SU in its last six, note that the Liberty are 0-5 ATS in their last five (but also note that New York is 7-3 ATS in its last ten after five or more ATS losses in a row.) These teams just played in Indiana about ten days ago, and the Liberty managed to come out on top by a score of 98-87 in OT, unable to cover the 10.5 points. But all signs point to a comfortable cover here in our opinon after the Fever finally broke their eight-game slide last time out with an 82-76 road win at Washington (can anyone say letdown spot?!) Lay the points, the play is New York!

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8* Giants (PITCHING DESTRUCTION)

After yesterday's 5-3 upsets loss here in the Nation's capital, we like the visiting side to bounce back in fine fashion here on Saturday. This is a pitching mismatch. Logan Webb (8-7, 3.11 ERA) gets the nod over his counterpart Josiah Gray (6-8, 3.59) from the Nationals. San Fran though has responded well in this spot for bettors of late though, going a near-perfect 5-1 in its last six in trying to avenge an upset road loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. San Francisco can't waste these types of opportunities, and all signs point to a quick bounce-back; lay the price, the play is San Francisco!

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10* Riders (WEST-CONF GOW)

The Riders are looking to bounce back after a tight 33-31 loss to Calgary in Week 6. They had the game in hand, but let it slip away late. Overall Saskatchewan is 3-2, while BC is 4-1. The Lions though have been inactive since Week 5, enjoying their bye week, and the old "rest" leading to "rust" scenario is very real here in our opinion. We look for the visiting side to keep this one a lot closer than what this spread is suggesting. No outright, but close; grab the points, the play is Saskatchewan!

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8* Twins (BLOWOUT SPECIAL)

They say that divisional battles are always the most important, and that the almost always "mean more" to the home side. That's the case here in this series in our opinion, as this line could/should in fact be a lot larger. The Twins lead the AL Central at 50-48 (26-22 at home), while the White Sox are in fourth at 41-57 (20-32 on the road.) Minnesota just took two of three at Seattle, but is off the 5-0 loss last night. That works in our favor though, as the Twins are 4-1 in their last five off a shutout road loss. The starting pitching matchup is also big time working in favor of the home side, as Chicago goes with the volatile Lance Lynn (6-8, 6.06 ERA), while the home side counters with Joe Ryan (8-6, 3.77.) For all the reasons listed above, we consider this to be the very definition of "great line value;" lay the price with confidence, the play is Minnesota!

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10* Dodgers (BLOCKBUSTER)

The Rangers have come out of the break and won six straight, but LA is 4-2 since the Midsummer Classic, and we think the correct call is on the visitors here. Two really good teams, but this is a starting pitching matchup favoring LA in our opinion. The visitors go with Tony Gonsolin (5-3, 3.72 ERA), while the hme side counters with Andrew Heaney (6-6, 4.43.) Gonsolin owns a 1.09 WHIP though, while Heaney's is 1.34. Look for LA to make a statement here in Texas, as Gonsolin easily outduels his inconsistent counterpart; the play is LA!

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10* Ti-Cats (BLOOD-BATH)

The Argonauts are 4-0 SU/ATS, but we're expecting an all out war here on Friday night, and because of that, we're grabbing the points. Toronto plays Saskatchewan at a neutral location next week, so this sets up as not only a "letdown" spot, but also a "look ahead" position. Letdown + look-ahead = trap game! Hamilton plays with the added incentive of revenge as well after falling 32-14 on the road in Toronto in Week 2 as a 2.5-point favorite. The Ti-Cats are coming off a quality win and cover in last week's 37-29 win over the Elks, and all signs point to another competitive battle here; grab the points, the play is Hamilton!

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10* Bombers (WEST-CONF GOW)

The Elks are terrible. They're 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS. One week after earning their first ATS win in a 12-11 loss at Saskatchewan, Edmonton got back to its losing ways in last week's 37-29 loss to Hamilton. Winnipeg dominate the Elks in every metric, and the only way the Elks cover here is if this were a "trap" game for the home side, but that's just not the case. Winnipeg's two-game win streak came to an end in last week's 31-28 OT loss to the Redblacks as a ten-point favorite, and note that the Bombers are a near-perfect 5-1 ATS in their last ten off a SU/ATS loss as a favorite. With a timely bye week up next, Winnipeg keeps the goot on the gas from start to finish; lay the points, the play is Winnipeg!

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10* UNDER Sparks/Lynx (NON-CONF TOW)

Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but all signs point to more of a defensive affair here finally. The Sparks enter having lost six straight, both SU and ATS, but note that LA has seen the total go UNDER in eight of its last 12 still after five or more SU/ATS losses in a row. The Lynx are desperate for a win here as well, as they've lost three in a row SU/ATS (but once again, that's significant for us to take note of here as Minnesota has in fact seen the total go "under" the number in three of its last four three or more straight SU/ATS losses in a row.) Everything points to a very defensive battle; the play is the "under!" 

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10* UNDER Twins/Mariners (ASSASSIN)

Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but we anticipate those trends ending here this evening. Minnesota has now seen the total go "over" the number in seven straight, including in the first three of this series here in Seattle (Twins are 2-1 so far.) Note though that the Twins have still seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to five or more straight "overs" in a row. And note that Seattle has seen the total go "under" in four of its last five in trying to avenge two or more straight losses against an opponent. Two really good starting pitchers sqaure off here as well, and everything points to a classic "duel," as Minnesota hands the ball to Pablo Lopez (5-5, 4.24 ERA), and the home side counters with George Kirby (8-8, 3.43); the play is indeed on the "under!" 

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8* Jays (SPECIAL)

The Jays had won four of five and eight of nine before yesterday's 9-1 series opening loss here to the Padres. Note though that Toronto is 7-2 in its last hine in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. SD is still just 20-27 on the road, while the Jays are still 26-19 at home. Toronto has the upper-hand in the starting pitching matchup, and in the end that'll prove to be the difference-maker. SD goes with Yu Darvish (6-6, 4.65 ERA), while the home side counters with Jose Berrios (8-6, 3.41.) All signs point to Toronto bouncing back in fine fashion and we're getting a really great price here; the play is the Jays!

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10* Orioles runline (ASSASSIN)

Both teams came into the second half on big runs, but it's been the Dodgers who have taken the first two games of this series, including yesterday's contest by a score of 10-3. Note though that the Orioles are still 7-3 in their last ten in trying to avenge two or more straight losses against an opponent. With a tough series at Texas up next, we expect the visiting side to finally get caught looking ahead. These starters are evenly matched, as the Dodgers go with Julio Urias (7-5, 4.35 ERA), while the home side counters with Dean Kremer (10-4, 4.59), but the situational and trend based-factors working in Baltimores favor do indeed make the home side the correct call. But we're laying the short price, and grabbing the extra 1.5 runs of insurance; the play is Baltimore on the runline option!

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8* Fever (DESTRUCTION)

Indiana sneaks in under the radar here in our opinion and steals one from the Mystics. The Fever plays with revenge after falling 96-88 here as 1-point favorites on July 7th. The Mystics are 11-8 and fourth in the Eastern Conference, but with a game here at home vs. East leading New York up next on Friday, this sets up as a classic "look ahead" for the home side as well. Clearly, the outright win is possible, but the official call will be to grab as many points as you can; the play is Indiana!

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10* Orioles (IL GOM)

Both teams came into the second half hot, but LA was the one that drew first blood in this series in yesterday's 6-4 victory. Now the Orioles look for revenge, as note that Baltimore is 7-2 in its last nine in trying to avenge a home loss vs. an opponent. The bottom line here though is that this is one that definitely favors the home side as far as the starting pitching matchup, and when you look at the talent discrepancy between these guys, and then look at the revenge angle, combined with this super affordable price, all of these factors combine to make the Orioles are No. 1 IL play of the month (Michael Grove is 1-2 with a 6.89 ERA for the Dodgers, while Tyler Well is 7-4 with a 3.18 ERA for the Orioles.) Lay the short price, the play is Baltimore!

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8* Angels (BLOCKBUSTER)

Both teams are in need of wins if they're going to make a serious run at the playoffs. New York lost two of three at Colorado over the weekend, and we think it'll struggle again here in this difficult road venue and with confirmed "gas can" Luis Severino scheduled to start. The Angels are likely going to be "sellers" again here shortly, but they haven't completely thrown in the white towel yet. Severino is just 1-4 with a 7.38 ERA and 1.80 WHIP. He's been terrible on the road, which is good news for Griffin Canning, a steady bright-spot for LA, entering 6-4 with a 4.62 ERA and 1.20 WHIP; lay the short price, the play is the Angels!

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8* Rays (SPECIAL)

Two really good teams, two really good pitchers. That said, we still feel that Shane McClanhan has the advantage over Dane Dunning tonight. Tampa came out of the break and won two of three at KC. It lost 8-4 yesterday, which is important for us to to note here though, as the Rays are 4-1 in their last five off an upset loss as a road favorite. Texas took three straight here from Cleveland over the weekend, but as mentioned above, the difference for us today comes on the mound. McClanahan is 11-1 with a 2.53 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, while Dunning is 8-2 with a 2.84 ERA for the Rangers. Look for Tampa to find a way to deliver here; the play is the Rays!

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Red Sox/Cubs (ASSASSIN)

Chicago has now seen the total go "over" in four straight ater yesterday's 10-4 win. The Red Sox won the opener by a score of 8-3 and Boston has now seen the total go "over" the number in three of its last four. But everything points to more of a defensive duel here on Sunday between two really good starting pitchers. The Red Sox turn to Kutter Crawford (3-4, 4.11 ERA, 1.16 WHIP), while the home side counters with the red hot Justin Steele (9-2, 2.56 ERA, 1.06 WHIP.) We've seen a lot of offense from each team of late, but that fact has only helped in driving this Sunday total a little too high now in our opinion. And so that's the play, the "under!" 

AAA Sports

10* Seattle Sounders FC (BOB)

After this the MLS breaks for three weeks to play its Summer Tournament. Home field advantage will prove to be the difference-maker in this one once it's all said and done in our opinion. Dallas is just 8-9 and it doesn't travel well. Off a 2-1 loss at lowly Colorado, look for the 10-8 Sounders to take advantage. Off a 2-0 loss at San Jose, we can expect a major respone here from Seattle; lay the price with confidence, the play is on the Sounders!

AAA Sports

10* Brewers (TOP DOG)

My NL GOW was on the Brewers last night, and I think that Freddy Peralta and the visiting side can build off that win. Milwaukee went into the break by winning two of three at home over the Reds. There were a few surprise teams in the first half, and Cincinnati was one of them. Regression seems imminent over the second half for Cincinnati though, and same with its starting pitcher today Andrew Abbot, who is 4-1 with a 2.38 ERA. Peralta is 5-7 with a 4.70 ERA so far. But look for the veteran to improve here over the second half and for the Brewers to take command of this division, sending a message here to the Reds that they are once again the proverbial doormat. Grab the plus money here, the play is Milwaukee!

AAA Sports

10* Redblacks (ASSASSIN)

Are the 4-1 Winnipeg Blue Bombers the better team? They are for sure. But the 1-3 Ottawa RedBlacks won't be going down without a fight here, and in what we anticipate to be a much more competitive battle than what this spread is suggesting, we're grabbing the points. Winnipeg returns home after this to face the lowly Elks, and after going up early, we can expect the visiting side to take the foot off the gas in the second half. Ottawa is 1-1 at home, scoring 41 points in front of the home town crowd collectively. I say the RedBlacks don't win this game outright, but they certainly keep it a "nail-biter" until the final moments; grab the points, the play is Ottawa!

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Argos/Als (SPECIAL)

After starting the season 2-0 SU/ATS, the Als have gone 0-2 SU/ATS. They're 6-1 their last seven in this series here at home though, and they play with revenge after falling 34-27 in the ECF last year, in which Toronto eventually went on to win the Grey Cup. The Als will be looking to control the tempo of this one throughout, as another way to slow down this Argos offense. Toronto had a bye last week, so will "rest" lead to "rust?!" Very possibly is the answer. Either way, we're expecting this one to be won in the trenches and where field position will prove to be critical. As such, all signs point to this being a defensive affair; this number is high, the play is the "under!" 

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10* Brewers (NL GOW)

Milwaukee took two of three from the Reds before the break, and at this price, we think they're going to take the opener here as well as we turn the calendar to the second half of the MLB season. This is just a plain ol simple mismatch on the mound. Corbin Burnes is battle-tested at 7-5 with a 3.94 ERA and 1.14 WHIP for the visiting side. Graham Ashcraft has struggled with consistency for the Reds though, entering the second half with a sub-par 4-6, 6.28 ERA, 1.59 WHIP record. Look for Burnes to outduel his erratic counterpart and lay this price with confidence; the play is Milwaukee!

AAA Sports

8* Mets (DESTRUCTION)

As good as Julio Urias CAN be, and as good as the LA Dodgers are overall, we still think, at this price, that Justin Verlander and the Mets are the correct call here. Urias is 6-5 with a 4.76 ERA, while Verlander is 3-4 with a 3.60 ERA. LA won't finish with as good a record as it did last year, but it's once again set up to make the playoffs. New York though is 7 games behind San Fran, and it's essentially "now or never" as far as their season is concerned. Urias is 0-0 with a 5.02 ERA in five career appearances vs. the Mets, while Verlander is 0-1 with a 3.75 ERA lifetime vs. the Dodgers; we're grabbing the undervalued hungry home side, the play is New York!

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10* Elks (GOW)

These are two terrible teams. That said, Edmonton is 0-5 and Hamilton is 1-3 after holding on for its first win of the year at home (21-13 over Ottawa.) The Ti-Cats though are 0-2 SU/ATS on the road and we absolutely expect them to stumble here against this determined Elks side. Edmonton didn't look fantastic last week, but it looked a lot better in every respect, falling 12-11 at Saskatchewan as a 7-point dog. Now more determined than ever to earn their first win of the year, it's essentially "do or die" on the season right here, as on 0-6 hole would be devastating. While the outright win is obviously possible, the official call is to grab as many points as you can with Edmonton!

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10* Sparks (WEST-CONF GOY)

We love the way this one sets up for the Sparks from a situational stand point, and that's 95% of what this selection is based upon. The Aces are 18-2 after last night's 98-72 win over Phoenix as 17-point favorites. But we expect Las Vegas to finally get caught flat-footed here as it "looks ahead" to the All Star weekend, in which it'll be a big representative. LA is 3-1 ATS in its last four in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent. LA is 7-12, but it won't be lacking for motivation after five straight SU/ATS losses in a row (which is also significant to note, as LA is 7-3 ATS in its last ten after five or more SU/ATS losses in a row.) Everything points to a much tighter battle than what this big spread is suggesting; grab the points, the play is LA!

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10* Chicago Fire (GOW)

The Canadian teams don't travel well. This line could/should in fact be much larger. Chicago is 6-7 and is playing its best soccer of the season right now, having won three of its last four, including a 1-0 win here over Nashville as a +139 dog last time out. Montreal is 8-11 overall and we think another predictable letdown here in this difficult road venue, facing this now surging home side is imminent; lay the price, the play is Chicago!

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8* Houston Dynamo (DESTRUCTION)

After a 2-2 draw here with Sporting KC, Houston hasn't won in three straight MLS contests, but we're expecting that short run of futility to come to an end here this evening in this favorable home matchup. The Dynamo play wiht revenge after a 1-0 loss at Minnesota back on May 17th, and note that Houston is 7-3 in its last ten in trying to avenge a road loss vs. an opponent. Minnesota is poor on the road ans off the 4-1 home loss to lowly Austin. Look for the more motivated and revenge-minded home side to lay everything on the line and deliver here at home; lay the price, the play is Houston!

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10* Mercury (ASSASSIN)

Outright win?! Of course not. But we look for the 17-2 Aces to take the foot off the gas down the stretch, letting the revenge-minded 4-14 Mercury to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Phoenix lost 99-79 at home as a 19-point underdog to Las Vegas back in June, but note that the Mercury are 3-1 ATS in their last four in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss vs. an  opponent. Las Vegas though gets caught "looking ahead" to its final game of the first half at LA tomorrow night, before being a featured team in the All-Star activities. No outright, but closer than expected; grab the points, the play is Phoenix!

AAA Sports

10* Als/Lions OVER (NON-CONF TOY)

Montreal is 2-1. BC is 3-1. Each team is the best in its repsective conference on the defensive side of the ball. These teams are similar in many respects, including that they each enter Week 5 off their first loss of the season. Montreal fell 17-3 at home to Winnipeg, while BC fell flat in Toronto by a score of 45-24. The Als though have seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 12 after a SU/ATS home loss in which they were held to 3 or fewer points in. BC's defense may have finally been exposed last week, but its offense continues to fire on all cylinders. We're expecting a shootout; this number is low, the play is the "over!" 

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10* UNDER Mystics/Suns (EAST-CONF TOM)

Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but all signs point to much more of a defensive affair here between these Eastern-Conference opponents. Washington is 10-7 and third in the East after beating Indiana 96-88 as a 1-point dog last time out, while Connecticut is 13-5 and No. 2 in the East after a 93-73 win at home over Seattle earlier in the week. Note though that they Mystics play with revenge here after an 88-81 home loss to the Sun back in May, and that's big time significant for us to take note of here, as Washington has seen the total go "under" the number in four of its last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss vs. an opponent. All signs point to a much more defensive affair here in the rematch; the play is the "under!" 

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10* Twins (ASSASSIN)

After dropping the first two games of this series, we fully expect the Twins to bounce back in the finale. The Orioles have now won four straight, but with the All Star break up this week, we're finally expecting them to get caught looking ahead and come in complacent here. Note though that the Twins are 7-2 in their last nine in trying to avenge a home loss as a fav vs. an opponent. Kyle Gibson (8-6, 4.73 ERA, 1.36 WHIP) has been decent for Baltimore, but we're still giving the big nod to Joe Ryan (8-5, 3.42 ERA, 0.90 WHIP), especially here at home. Lay the price with confidence, the play is Minnesota!

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10* DRAW NYC/CC (VALUE PLAY)

Two really good teams and we think there's going to be a classic "war of attrition," meaning that the DRAW offers tremendous value to cash here. Columbus is 10-6 and it hasn't lost in MLS action in seven games, most recently drawing 2-2 at Miami. New York City FC hasn't lost in MLS in seven games either, "drawing" six of those, including last time out in a 1-1 effort vs. Charlotte FC. As the title of this play implies, this one is all about the "value;" the play is the DRAW.

AAA Sports

10* Rays (ASSASSIN)

Enough is enough! Tampa has now lost six straight after dropping the opener here to the Braves by a score of 2-1 yesterday. Despite that though, note that TB is 7-2 in its last nine in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. The Rays are still also 9-5 in their last 14 after five or more straight losses in a row. Spencer Strider is 10-2 with a 3.66 ERA for the Braves, while Taj Bradley is 5-4 with a 5.27 ERA for the Rays. Strider's numbers are better, but Bradley at home here is the correct call in our opinion, considering how desperate TB overall is right now. Winning leads to complacency, and we're expecting ATL to finally take a collective step back this afternoon; lay the price, th eplay is Tampa Bay!

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10* OVER Ottawa/Hamilton (EAST-CONF TOW)

Winning can at times lead to complacency, and losing can breed motivation. The second part of that is true for both of these teams coming into Week 5, as Ottawa is 1-2 and Hamilton is 0-3. The Ti-Cats though have played some really good teams to open the season, and while they're 0-3, we're expecting a much more efficient offensive game here at home vs. this suspect Ottawa secondary (also note that the Ti-Cats have seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 11 after three or more straight SU/ATS losses in a row.) This marks the first of three games between the teams. Off their first win of the season (26-7) over Edmonton last week, there's no reason not to think that the Redblacks also can't build off that performance; this number is low, the play is the "over!" 

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10* OVER Stamps/Bombers (WEST-CONF TOW)

We're expecting a shootout here. Calgary is 1-2 and Winnipeg is 3-1. The Stamps finally got their offense working in last week's 29-26 OT home loss to the Riders, and we're expecting that offensive momentum to get carried over here. Winnipeg saw its first two games go "over" the number, but the last two have gone well "under." But that's only because the Bombers were matched up against the league's two best defenses the last two weeks. Now back at home and facing this suspect Calgary secondary, we're anticipating a wide-open shootout here; a great situational play on the "over!" 

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10* Calgary (WEST-CONF GOW)

Calgary is 1-2 and is the "hungrier" dog in this fight. It's coming out of its bye week as well, and we expect that to play a big role in the Stampeders, at the very least, earning a hard earned "cover" with the large amount of points they've been afforded. To say this is a "revenge" spot as well would be an understatement, as Winnipeg took all three meetings a year ago. Calgary's lone win this year has come on the road, and we're expecting another big effort here on Saturday night as well. No outright, but closer than expected; grab the points, the play is the Stampeders!

AAA Sports

10* Fever (ASSASSIN)

We feel these teams are evenly matched and in a contest that we see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, we're grabbing the points. Indiana is just 5-12. It's coming in off five straight SU losses, and three straight ATS losses. Those are both significant streaks of futility to take note of here though, as Indiana is 3-1 ATS in its last four after five or more SU losses in a row and 8-4 ATS in its last 12 after three or more straight ATS setbacks in row. Washington is 9-7, but it's faltered of late, losing two in a row SU and ATS. With a game at the Eastern Conference leading Sun on Wednesday, this is a potential "look ahead" spot for the home side as well. An outright win would not shock us, but the official call is to grab as many points as you can; the play is Indiana!

AAA Sports

10* Rays (IL GOW)

Two really good teams, but one enters much "hungrier" than the other. The Rays look to bounce back here after an uncharacteristic five straight losses in a row (note though that TB is 7-2 in its last nine after five or more straight losses in a row.) ATL is rolling, it enters off a 2-1 showing at Cleveland. These starters are evenly matched, as the Braves hand the ball to Charlie Morton (8-6, 3.57 ERA), while the home side counters with Tyler Glasnow (2-2, 4.50.) These guys are a "wash," but at this price and considering the circumstances, the sharp move for sure is to grab the home side and indeed expect a big bounce-back effort here after the five-game slide; lay the short price, the play is Tampa Bay!

AAA Sports

10* Orioles (ASSASSIN)

Baltimore lost the first two games of this series, but it bounced back with a 6-3 victory yesterday and we're expecting a similar outcome here as well. The botto line here is that this is a starting pitching matchup that favors Baltimore and that's going to be more than enough to tip the scales in its favor today. The visitors hand the ball to Kyle Bradish, who is 4-4 with a 3.58 ERA, while the home side counters with Luis Severino, who is just 1-3 with a 6.30 ERA. Great value on the superior starter; the play is Baltimore!

AAA Sports

10* Wings (BLOOD-BATH)

This is the opener of a home and home set between the clubs, and while we're not calling for an outright titanic upset here or anything, we do feel that this is a few too many points to be giving up to the Wings. Las Vegas is now 15-1 after its 102-84 win over Connecticut here at home last time out, avenging its only loss of the season so far. We expect the home side to come out a bit complacent here after that big win. Dallas is 8-8 and off B2B SU/ATS victories and we're looking for that positive momentum to get carried over here; no outright, but closer than expected; grab the points, the play is Dallas!

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8* Giants (MISMATCH)

We like San Francisco to finally bounce back here after four straight losses, including the first two in this series (note that San Fran is 7-3 in its last ten in trying to avenge two or more straight home losses against an opponent.) It's a bullpen game for the Mariners, meaing that Alex Cobb (5-3, 3.12 ERA), has a big advantage here. And those two big factors working in favor of the home side is more than enough to tip the scales in their direction and it makes it so that we have no issues at all in laying what we still feel is a very reasonable mid-aized price; the play is San Francisco!

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10* Orioles (AL EAST GOW)

After opening this series with two straight losses, we like the Orioles to bounce back here in the third game of this four-game series (note that Baltimore is 7-3 in its last ten in trying to avenge back-to-back road losses against an opponent.) We just love this starting pitching matchup for Baltimore more than anything, as it hands the ball to Deam Kremer, who is a battle-tested 8-4 with a 5.04 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. He definitely gets the nod over Randy Vasquez (1-1, 1.74 ERA), who makes his third career start here afte rgetting called up from Triple-A on Wednesday. We look for the Orioles to get back on track at the plate in this favorable matchup; lay the short price, the play is Baltimore!

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10* LAFC (MLS GOW)

This is the 20th installment of "El Trafico" at the Rose Bowl between the clubs. LAFC is 9-5 now off a 2-0 loss at Dallas (note though that it's 3-1 in its last four off a shutout loss.) The Galaxy enter off their fourth-straight "draw," 2-2 at San Jose. The home side is just 3-9 in MLS action. So being unbeaten in four straight is decent, but Vanney's side is still in the cellar. LAFC has had its up and downs this year, but it's still in second in the Western Conference. The Galaxy have taken a share of the spoils over the last few weeks, but we expect that run of attrition to end here against their bitter rival; the play is LAFC!

AAA Sports

10* White Sox runline (ASSASSIN)

Toronto shouldn't be favored here just because it's win/loss record is better overall. The Jays are just 22-22 on the road as well. They come in with zero momentum after getting swept at home by the Red Sox. The White Sox lost two of three at Oakland over the weekend, but they bounced back with an 8-7 win in the finale. Chris Bassitt is 8-5 with a 4.06 ERA for Toronto, while Lucas Giolito is 6-5 with a 3.53 ERA for the White Sox. Giolito gets the slight nod here and in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, the play is indeed on Chicago on the runline option!

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8* Marlins runline (SPECIAL)

No need to overanlayze this one. St. Louis is terrible this year, just 35-49 overall, including only 18-24 on the road. Miami is decent this season, 49-37 overall, including 26-16 at home. We think the Fish will not only win this game, but do so in blowout fashion. The bottom line is that this is a complete starting pitching mismatch: the Cards go with Adam Wainwright (3-3, 7.45 ERA), while the home side counters with Jesus Luzardo (6-5, 3.53.) Lay the 1.5 runs for the return; the play is Miami on the runline option!

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10* Braves FIRST FIVE INNINGS (ASSASSIN)

The Braves are ridiculously hot, and we foresee that surge lasting into the All Star break, which is just around the corner. ATL has won 16 of its last 17 games and is going for a ninth straight win here. Instead of playing the entire game though for this selection, I'm banking on Braves' starter Bryce Elder to win the first five innings. He's 6-1 with a 2.44 ERA overall and 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA over his last three starts. Cleveland returns home off a 4-2 road trip, but the Guardians are overmatched on the mound tonight by handing the ball to Gavin Williams, who is 0-0 with a 2.84 ERA. His third major league start is obviously a difficult one. If you can't get the Braves FIRST FIVE innings, we also love for the entire Game. So either way, ATL for first five, or for the entire game to win outright here; the play is indeed on the Braves!

AAA Sports

10* Argos (BLOOD-BATH)

The Lions are 3-0 and the Argos are 2-0. Each had some new faces on both sids of the ball coming into the season, but the new pieces have filled the void immediately, as chemistry for both sides is "firing on all cylinders." But off a 30-6 win at IG Field last week, we're finally expecting the road-weary Lions to show some "cracks in the armor" vs. the defending Grey Cup champions. THe Argos are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight vs. teams with winning records and while the outright win is clearly not out of the question, in the end we'll recommend to grab as many points as you can; the play is Toronto!

AAA Sports

8* OVER Astros/Rangers (SLUG-FEST)

These teams have been playing to some lower-scoring games of late, but we're definitely expecting that to change quick fast and hurry this afternoon. The total has gone "under" in the first three games of this four game series. So far Houston is 2-1. Note though that the Rangers have seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 12 in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. These starters have been great, but regression is imminent in our opinion. The visitors go with Christian Javier, who is 7-1 with a 3.72 ERA, while the home side counters with Martin Perez, who is 7-3 with a 4.28 ERA. This is just a case of these guys being in the wrong place at the wrong time tonight. Everything points to an explosive finish to this four-game series; the play is the "over!" 

AAA Sports

10* OVER D-Backs/Angels (ASSASSIN)

Two really good starters going head-to-head here, but we're still predicting this one to become a classic "slug-fest." Arizona has seen the total go UNDER in four straight now after taking the first two games of this three-game series. That includes yesterday's 3-1 victory. Note though that LA has seen the total go "over" the number in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge two or more straight home losses vs. an opponent. As mentioned, nothing but respect here for both starters, as Zac Gallen is 10-2 with a 3.02 ERA for Arizaon, while Reid Detmers is 1-5 with a 3.77 ERA for the Angels. This is just a case of each being in the "wrong place" at the "wrong time." This number is low, the play is the "over!" 

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Sparks/Dream (TOTAL BLOOD-BATH)

Here's a great situational play, as we're expecting a much more defensive affair than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. LA has seen the total go "over" in two of its last three after back-to-back losses at Chicago this week. Atlanta has seen the total go "over" in three straight after a 94-89 win over Washington, but note that the Dream have seen the total go "under" in five of their last seven after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. All signs point to a very tight, defensive lower-scoring "under!"

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8* Jays runline (SITUATIONAL MISMATCH)

After back-to-back losses to open this series, including on Canada Day on Saturday, we're expecting the Jays to dig deep and not only win this game, but to do so in blowout fashion. And that then makes the "runline" option the savvy move, laying the 1.5 runs for the "near pick em" price. Note that Toronto is 7-2 in its last nine in trying to avenge two or more straight home losses against an opponent. Two good starters, but we'll give the nod to the Jays' ace at home here. Boston goes with Garrett Whitlock, who is 4-3 with a 5.15 ERA, while Toronto goes with Kevin Gausman, who is 7-4 with a 3.01 ERA. Lay the 1.5 runs, the play is Toronto on the runline.

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10* Seattle (MLS WEST-CONF GOW)

Thees teams are No. 3 and No. 4 in the West, and at this point of the season, we can't understate how important we feel that the home field advantage will be. When these teams played in Houston back on May 13th, Seattle scored the 1-0 victory as a +204 underdog. Now here at home, we think the Sounders get back on track after going winless in their last five in MLS action (note though that the Sounders are also 3-1 in their last four after five or more straight losses in a row.) Houston doesn't travel well; lay the price, the play is Seattle!

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10* FC Cincinnati (EAST-CONF GOW)

This is the reverse-fixture after these teams tied 1-1 in New England back in April. The Revolution are 10-3, but we expect them to struggle here in this extremely difficult road venue. FC Cincinnati is 13-2, but off a 3-0 road loss at DC as a +300 dog, we absolutely expect a big response here, as clearly the team was caught looking ahead. Note though that FC Cincinnati is 3-1 in its last four after getting shutout in a loss in its previous outing. Ultimately we feel that the Revs had their chance to score a win against Cincinnati at home, and they failed. Great price on a great team, the play is indeed on FC Cincinnati.

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8* Mariners runline (SPECIAL)

After three straight losses, including a humbling 15-4 beatdown in the opener of this series here last night, we like the Mariners to dig deep and find a way to deliver. That said, in a contest that we see being decided late, or even in extras, we're going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Note that Seattle is 7-3 in its last ten in trying to avenge a home loss as an underdog vs. an opponent. Tyler Glasnow is 2-1 with a 4.45 ERA for the Rays, but we still give the battle-tested George Kirby the nod in this one, sitting at 6-7 with a 3.26 ERA. Lay the price and grab Seattle on the runline option!

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10* Alouettes (NON-CONF GOY)

Winnipeg is 2-1, but it's coming off a poor 30-6 beatdown loss as a six-point favorite at home to BC and we believe it'll stumble again here on the road. Montreal is no push over, it enters at 2-0 after destroying Hamilton 38-12 last weekend. In all, Montreal has allowed just 24 points over two games, its defense is second only to the Lions. We actually feel that this Montreal defense is very comparable to BC's and the Lions have given the Als the "blue-print" on how to counter this dynamic Bombers' offense. While the outright win is in fact possible in our estimation, our official call will be to grab as many points as you can; the play is Montreal!

AAA Sports

10* OVER Red Sox/Jays (ASSASSIN)

Although both teams have been playing to lower-scoring affairs of late, we look for this Saturday afternoon total to fly "over" the number sooner, rather than later. Toronto has seen the total go "under" in four straight now after yesterday's 5-0 series opening loss here. Note though that the Jays have seen the total go "over" the number in five of their last six in trying to avenge a shutout home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Boston has seen the total go "under" in three straight, but note that the Red Sox have seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. Kutter Crawford is 2-4 with a 4.01 ERA for the Red Sox, while Yusei Kikuchi is 7-2 with a 3.75 ERA for the Jays. Decent starters, but this is just a case of each being in the "wrong place" at the "wrong time," because the overall situation, combined with the above listed trends all point to this one being an offensive slug-fest; the play is the "over!" 

AAA Sports

10* Rays (BLOOD-BATH)

The Rays are 56-28, including 22-18 on the road, while Seattle is 38-41 this year, including 22-19 at home. Tampa just took two of three at Arizona, cooling off a red hot Arizona side, and at this price, we absolutely think the surging Rays are worth the price of admission. Bryce Miller is a bright spot for the Mariners, who just lost two of three here at home to lowly Washington this week, as he's 5-3 with a 3.88 ERA. But Shane McClanahan has been a step above, entering at 11-1 with a 2.23 ERA. It's going to be a super hot sunny night in the PNW and we like the Rays to take advantage. Lay the price.

AAA Sports

10* D-Backs runline (BOB)

In a contest that we see being decided late, or even in extras, we're going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Two teams in different leagues, but each has had a similar trajectory to this point. Each just went 1-2 in their respective series this week. These starters are pretty evenly matched, as Arizona turns to Tommy Henry, who is 4-1 with a 4.31 ERA, while the home side counters with Griffin Canning, who is 6-2 with a 3.99 ERA. Good value here, lay the price and grab the visitors on the runline.

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8* Detroit (BLOWOUT)

Both teams have struggled this year, but Detroit is playing better right now. The Tigers are 35-45, while the Rockies are 32-51. Detroit just went 2-2 in Texas, while Colorado went 1-2 here at home vs. the Dodgers. But this is a starting pitching matchup that favors Detroit, and that's going to be enough to tip the scales in the Tigers' favor, as despite his 2-5 win/loss record, Michael Lorenzen owns a highly respectable 3.97 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. Alex Gomber is terrible, he's 5-7 with a 7.01 ERA for the Rockies. Great value here on Detroit.

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10* Sparks (U OF THE U)

Revenge. It's a powerful motivating factor that teams, and handicappers both utilize. It's 100% the basis behind this play. LA had won two straight before falling 80-63 here two nights ago as a 2.5-point underdog. Note though that the Sparks are 7-2 ATS in their last nine in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent. Grab the points, the play is indeed on LA.

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10* Red Sox (ASSASSIN)

This is a big mid-season AL East series. These teams are lagging behind the Rays, but anything is possible at this point of the season. We see this game being decided late, or even in extras, therefore we're going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The Red Sox have lost five straight now, but note that they're 8-3 in their last 11 after five or more straight losses in a row. These starters are evenly matched, as James Paxton (3-1, 3.19 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors, while the home side counters with Jose Berrios (8-5, 3.60.) Everything points to a tight battle, the play is Boston on the runline option.

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10* Lynx (BLOOD-BATH)

Are we missing something here? Minnesota may be 5-9, but it comes in off a 104-93 win here as a four-point favorite just two nights ago. Now the Lynx are getting points in the re-match. Seattle is just 4-10 overall this year. This is just a bad matchup for the Storm and while the outright is obviously possible, the official call will be to grab as many points as you can; the play is Minnesota!

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10* OVER Brewers/Mets (ASSASSIN)

The Brewers have played to three straight "unders" after yesterday's 5-2 win. This is the fourth game of a four-game series between the clubs and the Brewers are 2-1 so far. Note that the Mets though have seen the total go "over" the number in four of their last five in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. The Mets have seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row as well. Two decent starters, but this is just a case of Adrian Houser (2-2, 4.02 ERA) and Max Scherzer (7-2, 3.95) being in the "wrong place" at the "wrong time." The overall situation points to this total sailing "over" the number sooner, rather than later!

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8* Padres (BLOWOUT)

We're going to lay the price with confidence here as we like Joe Musgrove to get his team back into the winner's circle after four straight losses, including the first 2 in this series (note though that the Padres are 7-2 in their last 9 in trying to avenge two or more straight losses as a favorite vs. an opponent.) Pittsburgh is hit or miss this year. It went on a big run, but it's still five games under .500. Musgrove is 6-2 with a 3.88 ERA for the Padres, while Luis Ortiz is 2-3 with a 3.74 ERA for the Pirates. We give the sliight nod to Musgrove in this matchup, and combined with the situational factors, and the above ATS trends, we're laying the price and expecting a decisive victory; the play is San Diego!

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10* Orioles (ASSASSIN)

We had a play on Baltimore yesterday and it unfortunatley came up short. We also played the Orioles in the opener of this three-game series. And now here we are back on them once again in the finale, for sure laying this price in what we feel is a mismatch on the mound for these starting pitchers. Luke Weaver (1-2, 6.86 ERA) is "hot garbage" for the Reds, while Kyle Gibson (8-5, 4.30) has been consistent for Baltimore. This line could/should in fact be much larger in our estimation; the play is Baltimore!

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10* Dream (BOB)

Outright win? Possibly, but in the opener of this home-and-home set, we're grabbing the points and expecting an all-out war until the end. ATL has lost two straight, both SU and ATS. Washington may have covered in four straight, but it's three-game win streak was snapped last time out in a heart-breaking 89-88 OT loss at New York. We say this sets up as a classic "letdown" spot here now. While the outright win isn't 100% entirely out of the question, everything points to this one coming "right down to the wire." Grab the point,s the play is Atlanta!

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8* SITUATIONAL BLOWOUT On the Twins RUNLINE.

We feel this is a great spot to pull the trigger on the Twins to bounce back in the finale of this three-game series with, at the very least, a solid ATS cover on the runline option. Note that Minnesota is 3-1 in its last four in trying to avenge two or more straight losses against an opponent. Despite being 1-4 with a 6.86 ERA, we still Kenta Maeda the nod over his  counterpart Kolby Allard, who makes his season debut here tonight. Maeda actually returned from a two-month injury last Friday and looked dominant, going five scoreless vs. the Tigers (8 K's.) In a contest that we see being decided late, or even in extras, we're grabbing the hungry visiting side on the runline option!

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10* OVER White Sox/Angels (TOTAL BOB)

Both sides have been playing to some lower-scoring affairs of late, but all signs point to this total finally eclipsing the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. The Angels are just 2-4 in their last six, but they managed the 2-1 win here last night in the opener of this series. They've seen the total go "under" in two straight. Chicago is just 2-3 in its last five after yesterday's setback. The White Sox have seen the total go "under" in two straight. LA hands the ball to ace Shoehei Ohtani, who is 6-3 with a 3.13 ERA, while the visitors counter with Michael Kopech, who is 3-6 with a 4.06 ERA. This is a case of these guys being in the wrong place at the wrong time; this number is low, the play is the "over!" 

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