This is an 8* play on OVER Denver-Portland

Look for a big time rebound from the Blazers at home in Game #6 Thursday night, especially offensively. They were blown out in Game #5, losing 124-98. It was easily their worst game in the playoffs and it put them behind the proverbial 8-ball as they'll now have to win the next two games to make the Western Conference Finals. In Game #5, Portland only shot 36.7%, easily their worst field goal percentage of any playoff game yet. Something we've harped on previously is that Denver is way worse defensively on the road. They allow less than 103 points/game at the Pepsi Center. On the road, that number jumps to 110.8. The Over is now 7-0 in Denver's last seven road games. For whatever reason, oddsmakers have decided to stick to their guns with fairly low totals in this series. That doesn't make much sense though seeing as the Over has hit eight of the nine times these teams have met this season with many of those games going Over by double digit margins. The Over is 19-7-1 in Portland's last 28 home games too. Play OVER Denver-Portland

AAA

This is a 10* play on UNDER Washington-LA Dodgers

The Dodgers haven't been giving up many runs at home all season and they shouldn't give up very many today as they open a weekend series against the slumping Nationals. Washington has lost six straight series and four games in a row and the biggest reason for that is they just aren't scoring. Three Opening Day starters are on the disabled list and they have scored more than three runs in just 2 of their previous 13 games. Dodger Stadium hasn't been too kind to opposing teams so far as they are hitting just .223 here. Rich Hill should take care of this scuffling Washington lineup tonight. He has an 11-0 TSR his last 11 starts vs. NL East teams. If the Nats are too have any chance of winning this game, it will be because of Patrick Corbin, who had a 0.77 ERA in four starts vs. LA last year when he was a member of the Arizona Diamondbacks. Corbin posted a 2.49 ERA in his first five starts this year and has had only one non-quality outing all year. Play UNDER Washington-LA Dodgers 

AAA

This is an 8* play OVER Cincinnati-Oakland

The Reds and A's went 13 yesterday with the home team finally winning 5-4. That's a final score that we'd "accept" again this afternoon given the total posted by the oddsmakers. Cincinnati has been one of the lower scoring teams in all of MLB, but maybe a visit to an American League park might do the trick? Now they get to use a designated hitter. They've already been trending in an "Over direction" recently with five of the last six games going that way. Oakland has held them to just two runs in the two games so far (won both) as Michael Fiers tossed a no-hitter Tuesday. They will send Chris Bassitt to the mound for the finale. But while Bassitt has a 2.12 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in three starts, we don't expect him to pitch all that well today. Same for Reds starter Roark, who has a 1.53 WHIP on the year (seven starts). It's still a limited sample size with Bassitt to draw any real conclusions. The Over is 5-2 in Cincy's last seven Interleague road games, which supports our theory concerning the DH. The Over is also 24-9-1 the L34 times the A's scored at least five runs the previous game. Play OVER Cincinnati-Oakland

AAA

This is a 10* play UNDER Houston-Golden State

We had the Under in the last game, which Houston won. The Under did too, albeit barely. Every game in this series has been close, including that last one, which was a 112-108 final. All four games in this series have been decided by six points or less. Game 5 has all the makings of another tight affair, but again our call is on the Under. The Under is now 10-3 the past 13 meetings and 20-8-1 in the Rockets last 29 games overall. The Under is also 9-3 the last 12 times the Warriors have been off a straight up loss. In the playoffs, Houston has really stepped up its defense, giving up an average of just 104.1 points/game. Steph Curry somewhat rediscovered his shooting touch in Game 4, however, he still missed 10 of 14 three-pointers and is below 30% from behind the arc in the series. Speaking of shooting, Houston isn't as likely to shoot the ball as well on the road as they did at home. They averaged just 104.5 points/game in the first two games here in Oakland. We're 4-0 in this series, cashing side & total in Game #1, Houston in Game #3 and the Under in Game #4. Play UNDER Houston-Golden State

AAA

This is a 10* play on SAN JOSE

We backed the home team in last night's Game 7 and will do so again in this one as San Jose hosts Colorado. For the Sharks, the Avalanche have been a lot harder to deal with in this series, then they were in the regular season. San Jose won all three times they played in the regular season, but this series has seen neither side be able to win consecutive games. That bodes well for San Jose though as they LOST Game #6 in Denver, 4-3 in overtime. Of course, this isn't San Jose's first Game 7 of these playoffs. They won in dramatic fashion (overtime) in a Game 7 in Round 1 over Vegas. That came after having to win on the road in Game 6 (a 2 OT game). Home teams have now won 3 of the 4 Game 7's played in the playoffs so far.  Colorado is just 3-13 the last 16 times they have been an underdog of +150 or less on the money line. Play on SAN JOSE

AAA

This is an 8* play on MILWAUKEE

It's all over but the shouting in Boston as the Celtics are falling apart before our very eyes. Kyrie Irving seems to have lost the trust of his teammates as he's shot them right out of this series. Not that the rest of the team is doing much. In the last three games, Boston has shot 103 of 257, which is barely above 40%. That simply won't get it done against a team like Milwaukee, who just put up 123 points in both games at Boston. The Bucks have clearly emerged as the better team here and may very well be getting Malcolm Brogden back for Game #5 as well. With the series back in Milwaukee, what chance do the Celtics really have. The Bucks are already a league best +12.1 points per game at home this season. This has all the makings of the Celtics waving the proverbial white flag. Milwaukee's superiority just wasn't taken seriously enough. This team is legit. They've gone 38-18-2 ATS their last 58 games. Play on MILWAUKEE

AAA

This is an 8* play OVER Minnesota-Toronto

Minnesota delivered another shutout against Toronto on Tuesday, winning 3-0, but tonight's game should feature a lot more runs. The two starters here simply are not as good as who pitched yesterday. The surging Twins got a four-hitter from their top starter Jose Berrios, but Kyle Gibson is probably the 4th best option in their rotation at this point. He has a 4.68 ERA overall and should feel very lucky to have a 3-1 team start record on the road seeing his ERA and WHIP are 5.31 and 1.62 respectively. As for the Blue Jays, they'll be sending out Trent Thornton, who is not only still winless after seven starts but he also has a 5.00 ERA at home. The Twins have been doing a lot of scoring on the road so far, averaging 5.8 runs/game. That's #4 in all of baseball. Meanwhile, Toronto has yet to score in this series, losing the first two games by scores of 8-0 and 3-0. That should change here, even though the poor offensive numbers might suggest otherwise. The Over is 5-1 in Gibson's last six starts against the Blue Jays. Play OVER Minnesota-Toronto

AAA

This is a 6* play on CLEVELAND

The Indians should not be losing two in a row to the White Sox, but that's precisely what has transpired over Monday and Tuesday. At the risk of stating the obvious, it's difficult to win in this game when you don't score any runs. Over its last three games, Cleveland has scored a grand total of one run! Whereas Sunday and Monday's losses (Sunday to Seattle) were lopsided, last night was a 2-0 game that they managed only five hits. This issue has to be corrected eventually and we think tonight is that time as the Tribe will be facing a struggling starter in Reynaldo Lopez, whose numbers leave a lot to be desired. In seven starts, Lopez has a 6.69 ERA and 1.76 WHIP. After it appeared he might be turning a corner, he allowed six runs to Boston on Friday. We played against him then and will do so again tonight. Cleveland's Shane Bieber has allowed three runs or less in every start but one this year, which will always give his team a chance to win. The runs have to start coming for the Indians sooner or later and we'll call for them to break out of the slump here. Play on CLEVELAND

AAA

This is an 8* play OVER Portland-Denver

Total is still too low for this series, which has seen three of the four games go Over. It's not just that though. All four regular season meetings between Denver and Portland also went Over. Game 4 saw 228 total points scored. All three Overs in the series have cashed by double digits. Yes, one of them was a 4 OT game. But considering we are dealing with two teams that have averaged more than 110 points/game over the course of the season, the point still stands that this number is too low. The Over is 13-6-1 in Portland's last 20 games following a straight up loss. The Over is 6-2 in Denver's last eight games off an ATS win. Even though Damian Lillard has been off since going for 39 points in Game 1, two of the three games have still gone Over. There are enough contributors on both teams that each will again find a way to get points. Play OVER Portland-Denver 

AAA

This is an 8* play on ST. LOUIS

It's come down to a Game 7 between the Stars and the Blues. It'll be played in St. Louis, which seems like an obvious advantage for the home team, but they're actually just 2-4 SU here in the postseason. But after losing both Games #2 and #5 on home ice (won Game #1), we look for the Blues to win here. We simply believe them to be the better team as Dallas has had an issue scoring all season on the road (29th in the league). The Blues won Game #6 in Dallas, 4-1, and would seem to have some momentum here. Don't discount the impact of the injury suffered by Stars goalie Ben Bishop on Sunday as he had to leave the ice. He'll obviously go in Game #7, but is he at 100% for the biggest game of the year? After the road team took four of the previous five games, it's time for the home team to deliver when it matters most. The Blues have won all three games where they scored at least three goals and we expect them to hit that number tonight. Play on ST. LOUIS

AAA

This is a 10* play UNDER Philadelphia-Toronto

Every game in this series has gone Under. In fact, for both teams, the Under trend extends back into the first round. Philadelphia's last six games have all gone Under. This series has seen them get held Under 100 points three times and now they aren't at home anymore. In Games #1 and #2 in Toronto, they were held to 95 and 94 points. Toronto has allowed no more than 96 points in seven of its last eight games, which is a remarkable achievement in the modern NBA. Going back to the final game of the regular season, the Under has hit in 9 of the Raptors previous 10 games. Despite the Under continuously hitting, often by comfortable margins, the oddsmakers still haven't dropped the total by nearly enough for Game 5. Expect Toronto to continue to play outstanding defense as there have been only two playoff games where the opposing team shot better than 40.2% from the field. One of those was the 76ers in Game 3, but that was in Philly. On the road, their points/game average drops by almost seven full points. Play UNDER Philadelphia-Toronto

AAA

This is an 8* play UNDER Washington-Milwaukee

Playing the Under here was a rare loss for us on Monday, but coming back with it is the right call. There has been a pitching change for Milwaukee. They will be going the "opener" route as originally scheduled starter Freddy Peralta has been terrible in the first inning (12.81 ERA). Peralta will pitch eventually in this game and we like the move by Brewers skipper Craig Counsell. Washington will go with Stephen Straburg and there's no reason to expect we won't be getting a strong outing from him. In his last three starts, Strasburg has a 1.25 ERA and 0.78 WHIP with 29 strikeouts. He's gone at least 6 2/3 innings in all three and never allowed more than two earned runs. Last night's game was a 5-3 Milwaukee win, just sneaking Over the total of 7.5. Be ready for an Under tonight though as we "get it back." The Brewers have given up three runs or less in six of their last eight games and every game in their last series went Under. The Nationals have gone Under in 5 of their last 7. Play UNDER Washington-Milwaukee 

AAA

This is an 8* play OVER LA Angels-Detroit

Unlike the other two games in this package, this is a series opener. The Angels and Tigers had Monday off. For the Angels, the day off was needed as they returned to the United States after a somewhat disastrous two game trip down to Mexico where they gave up 26 runs to the Astros. Before that, they'd won five in a row. Detroit managed to win its last game, in walkoff fashion, beating Kansas City 5-2, but that was after allowing 15 runs in a loss on Saturday. We expect lots of runs to be scored in this game as well, even if the distribution ends up being a little more even. Griffin Canning will be making only his second start for Los Angeles. The first was okay, but he lasted just 4 1/3 innings and still gave up three runs. Daniel Norris goes for the Tigers and he's lasted only five innings in each of his three turns. The respective workloads of the two starters lead us to believe we'll be seeing plenty of the bullpens here and that's a good thing for an Over bet seeing as Angels relievers have a 6.07 ERA/1.67 WHIP on the road while Tigers relievers have a 5.40 ERA/1.53 WHIP overall. Play OVER LA Angels-Detroit

AAA

This is an 8* play OVER Seattle-Yankees

Seattle started the year like a house of fire, winning 13 of their first 15 games and putting up some incredible offensive numbers in the process. They hit at least one home run in 25 straight games, which is a new MLB record to start a season. Things have since screeched to a grinding halt at the plate, but that doesn't mean the Mariners aren't still an "Over team." The Over is 26-8-3 in their 37 games played this year as they are now giving up runs in bunches. The Yankees scored 7 on them yesterday. There was a point last week when they allowed 11 or more runs three times in a four-game stretch. One of those was started by Marco Gonzales, who lasted only 1 2/3 innings. This will be Gonzales first time starting since then. He'll be opposed by Masahiro Tanaka. Tanaka has definitely had the Mariners number in his career, but despite that and the fact Seattle only scored three runs yesterday, look for this one to still go Over. Seattle did score 10 runs on Sunday and still leads MLB with 70 home runs. Play OVER Seattle-Yankees

AAA

This is an 8* play UNDER Golden State-Houston

Houston had to have Game #3 (we took them) and they came through with a 126-121 win in overtime, led by James Harden's (who else) 41 points. That win may ultimately be for naught if the Rockets don't win here as well, but this time we're keyed on the Under. Every game in the series has been close (decided by 6 pts or less). We are actually 3-0 in the series, winning with the Rockets in Games #1 (they covered plus the points) and #3. We also won with the Under in Game #1. The last two games have been pretty high scoring, which is what you'd expect when these teams play one another. But the Under is actually still 9-3 the previous 12 meetings and 19-8-1 in the Rockets' last 28 games overall. The Under is also 8-3 the last 11 times Golden State has been off a straight up loss. In the playoffs, Houston is only giving up an average of 103.6 points/game. Their scoring is also way down (108.7 points/game). A lot of that has to do with playing Utah, but note Game 3 was "only" 112-112 at the end of regulation. Play UNDER Golden State-Houston

AAA

This is a 10* play on UNDER Washington-Milwaukee

Seeing Max Scherzer with a 1-6 team start record is certainly something we're unaccustomed to, but it's the reality entering Monday's start in Milwaukee. The Washington ace really hasn't pitched that poorly, although he's definitely not been up to the usual Scherzer standard. His WHIP is a very respectable 1.17 though. Even though the Nationals have lost his last two starts, both were quality efforts from Scherzer as he went seven innings and allowed three runs or less each time. Strikeout numbers are still good. So we expect Scherzer to pitch well in this spot tonight. He has a 2.40 ERA in eight career games vs. Milwaukee. The problem lately for Washington has been scoring runs as an injury-depleted lineup has been held to three runs or less in 8 of its last 10 games. Milwaukee is off a series (three-game sweep of the Mets) where every game stayed Under. The Under is 6-1 this year with tonight's starter (Chacin) on the mound. Chacin has pitched better at home so far and has a 2.88 ERA in 10 career starts vs. the Nationals. Play UNDER Washington-Milwaukee

AAA

This is a 10* play UNDER Boston-Columbus

The Bruins will be looking to close out the Blue Jackets Monday, but to do so they'll have to win in Columbus. This is the first time facing elimination for the Jackets in these playoffs as they of course pulled off a stunning first round sweep of top seed Tampa Bay. Boston was taken to a Game 7 in Round 1 by Toronto, but this time it's a little different as they enter Game 6 on the road up 3-2 in the series, rather than down. Game 7 (if necessary) is in Boston, so the Bruins have that ace in the hole. The first four games of the series were all Unders before Boston won Game 5 by a score of 4-3. With the stakes even higher tonight, this should go back to being a low-scoring series. Both goalies have been great so far. Boston's Tuuka Rask has a .932 save percentage in the playoffs and is above that number in this series. For Columbus, Sergei Bobrovsky isn't far behind with a .928 postseason save percentage. Both of these teams have seen far more Unders than Overs this season, so the way this series has played out should not be shocking to anyone. The Under is 11-3 the last 14 times Columbus has been favored on the money line. Play UNDER Boston-Columbus

AAA

This is a 10* play on BOSTON

Boston may have looked like the better team in Game 1, but since then Milwaukee has taken control of the series with back to back wins where they scored 123 points. The Celtics shot poorly in both losses, but we'll back them here in a must win spot in Game 4 at home. You not only have to expect better shooting here, but better defense as well. Yes, the Bucks were #1 in the league in scoring in the regular season and have had their way offensively the last two games. But the three-point shooting we've seen from them in the last two games is bound to "taper off." They were north of 40 percent from behind the arc in Games #2 and #3, going 35 of 84. That's high volume, which is not new for them, but the percentage and number of makes is more than usual. There have been only four times all season where Boston has lost three or more straight games. All we have to do here is basically lay a bucket in order for them to avoid doing so in what is obviously their biggest game all year. They've lost consecutive home games just twice all season. Play on BOSTON

AAA

This is a 10* play on DENVER

Nobody wants to lose in the NBA Playoffs, but going down in four overtimes is particularly gut-wrenching. As difficult to "swallow" as Game 3's loss may be for Denver, we like them to bounce back on Sunday. We did have the Nuggets in Game #3 and sure enough they did cover for us, losing by only three points (140-137) as a 4.5-point underdog. Obviously, Friday's game going four overtimes is going to have an effect on both teams here. At least it's a night game, so there will be about 48 hours to recover. Portland is 0-4 ATS off its last four SU wins here in the playoffs. The underdog has also gone 5-2 ATS the past seven meetings between them and Denver. The Nuggets are 4-0 ATS their last four visits to the Moda Center. They've also been the ones to cover five of the last seven meetings and the only two exceptions were Game 2 (shot poorly) and a game back in January where they won by three, but were caught laying -4.5. Take the points. Play on DENVER 

AAA

This is an 8* play on PHILADELPHIA

The line has jumped the fence for Game 4 (Philly now favored). While that might mean "less value" on the 76ers, it also means public sentiment has now clearly swung against the Raptors, a team whose past playoff failings may be set to catch up with them again. The 76ers obviously outplayed the Raptors in Game 3, beating them 116-95 and looking like a completely different team on offense than what we saw in the first two games. Perhaps that should have been something we all saw coming as the Sixers do average 118.5 points/game at home, which is noticeably higher than their scoring average on the road (which is just 111.8 points/game). You won't be surprised to learn that the results have been much better for Philly at home compared to the road. At home, they have gone 34-11 and outscored opponents by 8.6 points/game. On the road, they have gone just 23-22 while actually being outscored over the course of the season. Philly has gone 6-1 straight up and against the spread since losing Game 1 in the first round. The line jumping the fence is also notable because the favorite has covered in 21 of the previous 30 meetings. The home team has covered seven of the last nine. Play on PHILADELPHIA

AAA

This is a 10* play on TEXAS

After taking a hard-luck 1-0 loss on Friday (game went 12 innings), the Rangers came back and beat the Blue Jays 8-5 last night. They jumped all over Toronto starter Pannone, scoring seven times off him in just 2 1/3 innings. Today, they hope for similar results against Clay Buchholz, whose best days are pretty clearly behind him. Buchholz is still winless after four starts, though the team has gone 2-2. But Toronto has lost the last two and Buchholz hasn't made it past the fifth in any of the last three. The Blue Jays aren't a strong hitting team either, averaging just 4.0 rpg on the year. There's only been one time where they have scored more than five runs in the last nine games. Also winless in four starts is Rangers lefty Drew Smyly. The only difference with him is the team has lost all four times. He's also not made it very deep into games. But at least Smyly has an offense that can adequately support him. Texas is averaging 6.1 runs scored in home games this year. Buchholz is 0-4 lifetime in this park with a 6.00 ERA. Smyly has a 2.76 ERA in 10 career appearances vs. Toronto. Play on TEXAS

AAA

This is an 8* play on UNDER Atlanta-Miami

No team has scored fewer runs this season than Miami. They have just 90 in 32 games, which means less than three per game and they've stayed true to that form in this series vs. the Braves where both games have seen them score just twice. But both games have gone Over due to Atlanta scoring as the Braves have been one of the highest scoring teams in the National League. Thus, this game would normally set up as a mismatch, but don't be shocked if/when Miami starter Lopez keeps his team in this one. Lopez has a 3.18 ERA and 0.941 WHIP in his last three starts. That he gave up four runs his last time on the mound seems pretty unfair seeing as he allowed only three hits. What's really crazy about Lopez's starts though is how few runs Miami has scored. They've been shutout in three of them and scored just four total in the last five! All five starts have gone Under. Braves starter Teheran shouldn't have much trouble keeping the Marlins bats in check here. Take away the three home runs he allowed vs. San Diego on Tuesday and Teheran actually pitched pretty well in his last outing. Play UNDER Atlanta-Miami

AAA

This is a 10* play on SAN JOSE

Time for the Sharks to wrest control of this series for good. They have won Games #1 and #3, only for Colorado to tie the series up with a win in the following games (#2 and #4). But San Jose still has the home ice edge and that's going to be important here in Game #5. The Sharks are 29-18 in all home games this season and they average an impressive 3.7 goals/game at "The Tank," one of the best marks in the league. Colorado is only 20-26 SU on the road. The Sharks were blanked 3-0 in Game 4. Sound familiar? They were also shutout in Game #4 of the last series, losing 5-0 to Vegas. They came back and won the next three games, including a five-goal effort in Game 5. This time the Sharks don't need to win three in a row, just two. In the regular season, San Jose was shutout just four times. They came back and won the next game after three of those four occasions. Play on SAN JOSE

AAA

This is a 10* play on HOUSTON

This is obviously as close to must win as it gets for Houston. No team has ever come back from an 0-3 deficit to win a series. But lots of teams have won when down 0-2 and they return home. That's the situation for the Rockets here. The good news is James Harden is fine after sustaining an eye injury in Game #2. Despite missing time, Harden still had his best shooting night of any playoff game. It's not as if the Rockets were outclassed in either game at Golden State. Both losses were by just six points. Remember that they took three of four from the Warriors in the regular season and were up three games to two in last year's Western Conference Final. They beat Golden State both times here at home in the regular season. They're also 7-1-1 ATS the last 9 home games. They won the three first round home games by a combined 59 points. The Warriors have failed to cover off any of their last five ATS wins. They are also 1-6 ATS off their last 7 SU wins. Play on HOUSTON

AAA

This is an 8* play on BOSTON

This week has seen us call for a Red Sox resurgence and they've delivered in kind by going 4-1 the last five games. They swept Oakland earlier in the week, at home, and then after a walkoff loss in the opener here in Chicago, it was an easy 6-1 win. That was Chris Sale's first victory of 2019. We'll back Boston again in this spot as the Sox of a different color are no match for them. Now we know that Eduardo Rodriguez has yet to be an effective starter this season for Boston. However, he's never lost in three previous starts against the White Sox. Chicago is still giving up over 6.0 runs/game at home too. Only two teams give up more runs in home games and they are Colorado (Coors Field) and Baltimore (worst team in baseball). Boston easily could be on a five-game win streak heading into this game and they should "get to" White Sox starter Banuelos, who has made only two starts so far and both were against Baltimore. This is a big step up. Play on BOSTON

AAA

This is a 10* play OVER Seattle-Cleveland

We had the Under when these teams met Friday. That was an easy winner with the Indians winning 2-1 in walkoff fashion on Tyler Naquin's pinch-hit single that came with two outs in the bottom of the ninth. Cleveland is now 4-0 vs. Seattle this season. After starting the year by winning 13 of their first 15 games, the Mariners are really on a downward slide right now. They've lost 14 of 19 and in five of the last seven games, they've scored 0 or 1 run. But the Over is still 23-8-3 in all of their games and we expect them to rediscover some of that "lost" offense today against Cleveland's Carlos Carrasco. Carrasco has given up four or more runs in half of his starts so far. Seattle has still scored the most runs in all of baseball with 190 in 34 games. They've also hit 61 home runs, tied for the major league lead. Unfortunately, it doesn't help them that they have Mike Leake pitching today. Leake arrives in poor form, having delivering a 5.82 ERA and 1.588 WHIP his last three turns in the rotation. The Over is 3-0 when he starts on the road this season. He gave up nine runs in his last start. Much different game than last night. Play OVER Seattle-Cleveland

AAA

This is a 10* play on DENVER

Coming into this series, we said that home court advantage would play a big role, just like it did in the Nuggets' first round series against the Spurs. There, Denver did drop Game 1 at home, but won its next three at the Pepsi Center and wound up advancing after the series went a full seven games. Despite a quick turnaround between series, Denver was able to beat Portland in Game #1, 121-113. But then they lost Game #2, 97-90, so we're all squared up going back to Portland. Homecourt is still important, but it's difficult to imagine Denver playing any worse than it did in Game #2. They shot jut 34.7% overall and were a hideous 6 of 29 from behind the three-point line. They even missed 10 of 26 free throw attempts. We like them getting points in Game #3 as they have covered five of their last seven trips here and they are 6-2-1 ATS the last nine matchups with Portland, no matter the location. Play on DENVER

AAA

This is a 10* play on ST. LOUIS

We've had St. Louis in both of their wins in this series and will look to make it 3 for 3 tonight in Game 5. With the series tied up at 2-2, this is a very important game as one of the teams will be put on the brink of elimination for the first time in these playoffs. The Blues have won all four times this postseason they've been tied in a series (This includes both Game 1's.) They have not performed as well as you'd think at home, going just 2-3 SU here in the playoffs. But they've still won 16 of their last 21 games here in the Gateway City. When the opponent gave up two goals or less the last game, St. Louis has gone 22-5 its last 27. Obviously here, they are facing the same team. But the Stars are unlikely to replicate Game 4's four goal effort, just like they were unable to replicate Game 2's 4-goal effort. After all, the regular season saw them score the fourth fewest number of goals. Game 2 was also the last time Dallas allowed two goals or less. They promptly lost Game 3 by a score of 4-3.  Look for the Blues to maintain home ice advantage with a big win on Friday. Play on ST. LOUIS

AAA

This is a 6* play on BOSTON

Terrible loss for Boston last night as a three-run HR by the White Sox Nicky Delmonico ended the game. The Red Sox went into the bottom of the ninth up 4-3, an advantage they'd held since going up in the top of the seventh. The loss came on the heels of a three-game sweep of Oakland, which was at home, but Boston had an edge going into yesterday in that the White Sox had just played a doubleheader on Wednesday. We expect the Red Sox to bounce back in a major way Friday with Chris Sale on the mound. Shockingly, Sale has yet to win a game this year. He's 0-5 in six starts with a 6.30 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. Not like him at all, but who better for him to turn it around against than his former team? Obviously, Sale is accustomed to dominating in this park. Can't say the same for White Sox starter Lopez, who brings a 6.33 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in four home starts into tonight's game. Boston is 25-8 the last 33 times it has been priced north of -175 on the road. Chicago is 7-29 the L36 times it has been priced north of +175 at home. Play on BOSTON

AAA

This is an 8* play UNDER Mets-Milwaukee

You can't get any lower scoring than the Mets last two games, each of which were 1-0 finals. They won one and lost one, the win coming yesterday thanks to a tremendous outing from Noah Syndergaard. The loss was started by Jacob deGrom. Tonight's starter Steven Matz doesn't have the resume of those two starters, but we expect him to pitch well in this spot. Matz's overall numbers remain heavily skewed due to one terrible effort against the Phillies. But the other five starts have all seen him allow no more than three runs. Matz's last two starts have seen him go 13 innings while allowing only three runs. Meanwhile, Milwaukee just gave up 22 runs the last two days in a pair of losses to Colorado (11 each game). That shouldn't continue here seeing how few runs the Mets have scored recently. They have put just 22 runs on the road in the last eight games. So look for a quality start here from Brandon Woodruff, who gave up just one run in five innings when he faced the Mets last week. In that same series, Matz went seven innings and allowed just two runs on five hits. Play UNDER Mets-Milwaukee

AAA

This is an 8* play on UNDER Seattle-Cleveland

The Indians were dealt a big blow in the last 48 hours when Corey Kluber was struck with a line drive, breaking his right arm. We'll see how that affects them moving forward, but another issue the club is dealing with is an inability to consistently score runs. They've scored three runs or less in six of the last eight games and are hitting only .215 as a team. That's the lowest team BA in the American League. Seattle is near the top of most offensive categories, but they seem to be running on fumes now after losing seven of nine. They're batting just .202 the last 18 games. The last four games have seen them get outscored 46-7! They were swept at home by the Indians just a couple of weeks ago. Two struggling offenses should result in an Under in this game, even with neither starter possessing overwhelmingly great numbers. But Shane Bieber got the job done for Cleveland at Seattle in that last series, limiting them to one run and four hits. For the Mariners, Kikuchi has allowed more than 3 ER in just two starts. He'll stop the bleeding in terms of runs allowed, but we don't expect much scoring here from Seattle either. Play UNDER Seattle-Cleveland

AAA

This is a 10* play on TORONTO

Toronto and Philadelphia had very similar Round 1 experiences. Both lost their respective Game 1's, on their home floor. But then both bounced back to win the next four games and advance. Toronto did so with defense, holding Orlando to an average of 89 points/game in the four wins. Philadelphia did so more with offense, averaging 127.5 points/game vs. Brooklyn. Through two games, this second round series has more closely resembled Toronto's style of play. The Sixers have failed to score 100 points in either game, though they did take Game 2 in Toronto by a score of 94-89. That was their first win in 15 tries up in Canada. Now we move to the City of Brotherly Love. While the 76ers may now have homecourt advantage, we believe the Raptors are still the better team. Philly is a little banged up in the frontcourt as both Joel Embiid and Mike Scott continue to battle injuries. The Raptors have now allowed fewer than 100 points in six straight games. We expect players such as Danny Green and Marc Gasol to play a lot better than they did in Game 2. Those two combined to make only 2 of 14 field goal attempts and the Raptors bench totaled only five points on 2 of 11 shooting. Should be a much better team effort tonight. Toronto is still on a 14-5 ATS run vs. Philadelphia and the last time they dropped back to back games ATS was late March (10-4 ATS overall since). Play on TORONTO

AAA

This is an 8* play on BOSTON

It was just a couple of days ago that we predicted the Red Sox would start to break out from what had been a terribly disappointing start to the 2019 season. Sure enough, they just swept a three-game series from Oakland. We had them in the first two games before laying off yesterday afternoon. They outscored the A's 21-8. Now the Sox hit the road for the weekend, but it'll be Chicago and the White Sox aren't likely to measure up. The White Sox ended April by winning three in a row, but May began with a doubleheader that they split with Baltimore. Playing a doubleheader yesterday puts them at a slight disadvantage right off the bat today. So too does facing a red hot David Price. After a rough start to the year, Price has settled down with a 2.00 ERA and 0.944 WHIP in his last three starts. He's allowed only four runs in 18 innings and has 24 strikeouts. Compare that to the numbers of Chicago's Lucas Giolito, who has a 6.75 ERA and 1.75 WHIP in his last three trips to the mound. The White Sox give up 6.3 runs per game at home. They have lost the last six time Giolito has started at Guaranteed Rate Field. Boston is 12-1 in Price's previous 13 starts vs teams that have a losing record. Play on BOSTON

AAA

This is an 8* play on OVER Boston-Columbus

The scrappy Columbus Blue Jackets now lead the Bruins 2 games to 1 in this best of seven series. It's been a nice rally from the Jackets after dropping Game #1 in Boston. Of course, what else should we have expected. This is a team that stunned the hockey universe by sweeping a historically great Tampa Bay team (won 62 regular season games) in Round #1. No matter who's won in this series, every game has gone Under. Game #3, won 2-1 by Columbus, was the lowest scoring to date. What's interesting about the series being 3-0 Under is that there have been a lot of shots on goal, a little over 70 per game to be exact. Tip your cap to the two goaltenders then as Tuukka Rask and Sergei Bobrovsky have really done their jobs. But I think Game 4 will be the highest scoring of the series. Can Bobrovsky really maintain his high level of play, moving forward? He has a .937 save percentage so far in the playoffs. He was tied for only 16th in goals against average in the regular season and was 21st in goals against average. Play OVER Boston-Columbus

AAA

This is an 8* play UNDER Tampa Bay-Kansas City

Shockingly, the Royals were able to sweep Wednesday's doubleheader from the Rays. That result is in no way indicative of how the two teams have started the season. Kansas City is still only 11-20 on the year and in last place in the AL Central. Tampa Bay is 19-11 and still leads the AL East. The Rays had also gone 10-1 vs. KC since the start of last season before losing two yesterday. Maybe they get their revenge today, but look for the Under to definitely hit. A big reason why the Rays are in first place is their pitching, which is tied for the Major League lead in runs allowed. Charlie Morton goes today and not only is he unbeaten (3-0) in six starts, he has a 1.72 ERA in his three road starts. Now the Rays were only able to score two runs in both games Wednesday, which is obviously a problem. Danny Duffy will make just his second start of 2019 here after coming off the disabled list. He was OK on Friday as he allowed three runs in five innings. We expect him to be better today. Duffy has a 2.90 ERA in five career starts vs. Tampa Bay. In those five starts, he has 37 strikeouts and only eight walks in 31 innings pitched. Play UNDER Tampa Bay-Kansas City

AAA

analysis coming

analysis coming

This is a 10* play on CAROLINA

What a difference one series has made for the Islanders. In the first round, they took the first two games on the road en route to a surprising sweep of the favored Penguins. Now in Round 2, they're down 0-2 to the underdog Hurricanes, having dropped Games #1 and #2 on home ice. Carolina has won four in a row dating back to its first round series with Washington, the last three wins all coming on the road, including a Game 7 win in double overtime. This will be our first time backing either side in the series, though we did win with the Under in Game 1, which was as easy as it gets considering it was a scoreless tie at the end of regulation. The Hurricanes have given up just one goal in the series and now return home where they've yet to lose in the playoffs (3-0). In the three home games vs. the Capitals, they allowed just three goals. The big story for Game 3 is that the Canes will be starting Curtis McElhinney in place of Petr Mrazek in goal due to the latter sustaining a lower body injury. But it hardly matters as Carolina is the better team here and McElhinney posted near identical numbers to Mrazek in the regular season. Play on CAROLINA 

AAA

This is an 8* play OVER St. Louis-Washington

Max Scherzer is from St. Louis, so getting to face the Cardinals will always hold a special meaning for him. But the bottom line is that in 2019 Scherzer has not looked like the same pitcher we're used to seeing. His first month of the season produced a 1-5 team start record as well as a 4.12 ERA. That the Nationals are 0-4 at home with him on the mound is really surprising. Now Scherzer has pitched better in D.C. than his record would suggest. He's also still striking out plenty of hitters. Regardless of how well Scherzer pitches Wednesday, we feel this game is set to go Over due to the Nationals hitters facing Miles Mikolas, who has not been very sharp for the Cardinals. Six starts have brought a 5.29 ERA for Mikolas and the Over is 5-1. The road is where he's been at his worst as the Over is 3-0 and he has a 6.60 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. In three games vs. Washington, Mikokas has a 6.43 ERA. Both offenses are averaging more than 5.0 runs/game this season. This should be an easy Over as St. Louis is 14-3 Over after giving up two runs or less in its last game. Play OVER St. Louis-Washington

AAA

This is an 8* play UNDER Detroit-Philadelphia

This is going to be a low-scoring affair. For starters, Detroit doesn't bring much offense to the table. They are last in the American League in runs scored. Put them in a National League park where they can't use the designated hitter and you have to figure that they'll really struggle to put runs on the road. Sure enough, they scored only three times last night, but that was enough for a win over the Phillies. Holding Philly to just one run again might prove difficult, but we think we can count on yet another rough day at the plate for the visitors. The Phillies are heavy favorites Wednesday and if they can get to the ninth with a lead, that will chop off half an inning. Seven of the Phillies last nine games have seen the losing side held to 0 or 1 run. Off their last two losses, they came back and delivered a win in shutout fashion. Tonight's starter Aaron Nola gave up just one run in his last start and his two best outings of the year were both here at home. Tigers starter Norris is just two starts removed from tossing five shutout innings. He's given up two runs or less in three of his last five starts. Play UNDER Detroit-Philadelphia

AAA

This is a 10* play UNDER San Jose-Colorado 

This series is tied up at one game apiece after the Avalanche won a wild Game 2 that saw four goals scored in the last 10 minutes (2 per side). After falling behind early, the Avs twice led by as many as two goals. It was their first time beating the Sharks in five tries this season. Now the series goes to Denver where the Avs have won 13 of 16. While Game #3 seemingly sets up well for the home team, the Under looks like the better (and safer) call. Game 2 certainly "should have" been an Under as it was a 2-1 game with just under 10 minutes to go. The goal that sent the game Over came on a Sharks power play in the final minute when they had a two-man advantage. It was the second goal scored in the game's final 62 seconds. San Jose's goals per game average drops on the road, which isn't surprising, but the fact Colorado's goals per game average stays the same at home (vs. the road) is notable. With every meeting this season resulting in an Over, it's time for an Under. The Under is 4-1 in San Jose's last five road games. Play UNDER San Jose-Colorado

AAA

This is a 10* play on LA ANGELS

The Angels aren't a good team, but we've kind of had our "finger on the pulse" when it comes to taking them, if the situation calls for it. The situation calls for it here as they open a three-game series at home vs. Toronto. The Blue Jays are ripe for a letdown after sweeping Oakland for a second time this season. The latest sweep was at home over the weekend, but two of the three wins came in the final at-bat. That last series also saw Vlad Guerrero Jr finally make his big league debut. This series will be a homecoming of sorts for the Blue Jays top prospect as his father used to play in this stadium. However, while the Blue Jays may have swept the A's, Guerrero Jr was just 3 for 12 at the plate. Him being on the roster seems to have overvalued Toronto. The key rookie in this game may actually be Angels starting pitcher Griffin Canning, who makes his first start for the big league club. Canning was outstanding for Triple A, giving up just one run in 16 innings. All Toronto can offer up is the aging Clay Buchholz, who has a 4.60 ERA in three starts. Play on LA ANGELS 

AAA

This is a 10* play UNDER Boston-Milwaukee

Boston came out and took Game 1 from Milwaukee, winning 112-90 as eight-point underdogs. They held the Bucks, who lead the league in scoring mind you, to 34.8 percent shooting. That's quite impressive as is the fact the Celtics have now won and covered six straight going back to the final game of the regular season. But we don't expect the visitors to shoot the ball as well in Game #2 as they did in Game #1. Sunday saw Kyrie Irving and company sink 54% of their total shot attempts, including 13 of 31 from three-point range. That's a lot of 3-pt attempts too, far more than we're accustomed to seeing from Boston. To avoid falling into a dangerous 0-2 series hole, Milwaukee must not only fix its shooting woes from Game #1, but also its play on the defensive end. The latter component shouldn't be that hard as the Bucks were #1 in the league in defensive efficiency during the regular season. They held the Pistons, an admittedly inferior team compared to the Celtics, to 98 points/game in Round 1. Boston has allowed fewer than 100 points in four of its five playoff games. Play UNDER Boston-Milwaukee

AAA

This is an 8* play on BOSTON

We had the Red Sox yesterday (they won 9-4) and our view that this is a series where they'll get "back on track" (whether it be temporarily or permanently) remains unchanged. Tuesday's starter Rick Porcello has been pretty bad so far this year, but Oakland's Aaron Brooks hasn't been any better. The Athletics are 0-4 so far priced between +125 and +175 on the road and that's where we find them today. They've dropped four in a row, all on the road, and this is a team clearly searching for answers right now. The A's did take an early 4-0 lead on Monday, but an error-filled 3rd inning led to a six-run rally for Boston. That one inning may be all that the Red Sox need to get things pointed in the right direction here. Brooks has given up a total of six home runs in his last four starts for Oakland, who is 19-46 in their last 65 games played at Fenway Park. Play on BOSTON

AAA

This is a 10* play on DENVER

Denver dropped Game 1 of the last series (vs. San Antonio), but we don't see that happening here. Like the Spurs series, home court advantage figures to play a key role here in Round 2 vs. Portland. The Nuggets had the best home record in the league during the regular season and are now 37-8 straight up at the Pepsi Center. The got "backdoored" in Game 7 by San Antonio, winning by only four in a game they were favored to win by 6.5 points. But don't let that unlucky ATS result cloud the fact they led that game by double digits most of the way. Denver plays a lot better defense at home too. They gave up only 86 points in Game 7 after giving up only 90 in Game 5. For the year, they give up just 102.9 points per game at home, which is more than seven points less than what they give up on the road. Portland isn't quite as subpar as San Antonio on the road, but the Blazers record away from home is only 22-21. The Nuggets were 3-1 against the Blazers in the regular season, although every game was close. But the only time they lost to them was in the second game of a home and home, in Portland. The Trail Blazers are just 1-5-1 ATS the past seven meetings and they now have a problem in the frontcourt. Jusuf Nurkic is already out for the year and now Enes Kanter is dealing with a separated shoulder. Play on DENVER 

AAA

This is a 10* play on ST. LOUIS

The Blues never trailed in Game 1 even though they got off only 20 shots. Now 35-13-4 straight up since January 2nd (when they were last in the division and had the fewest number of points in the league!), we think this team is peaking at the right time. We'd figured they'd take both games at home as they came into Game 2 at 15-4 the L19 times as a home favorite. But alas, they did not. They lost Game 2 by a score of 4-2 and now head back to Dallas needing one win in the next two games to recapture the home ice advantage. We look for them to get that one win tonight. When the opponent gave up two goals or less the last game, St. Louis has gone 21-5 its last 26. Obviously here, they are facing the same team. But the Stars are unlikely to replicate Game 2's four goal effort. After all, the regular season saw them score the fourth fewest number of goals. As you might have guessed, among playoff teams, they easily scored the fewest. We think that inability to score consistently will end up biting them here. Play on ST. LOUIS

AAA

This is a 10* play OVER Houston-Minnesota

Minnesota just hit 12 home runs in a three-game sweep over the weekend. Of course, they had the luxury of facing a Baltimore pitching staff that is bad as any in baseball. It won't be as easy to start the week as they are going up against Houston, beginning with Justin Verlander occupying the mound Monday. But the Twins are at home at least. And this time it won't be them having to do all the scoring for Over bettors. The Astros are off a hard fought four-game split with Cleveland, which ended with a 4-1 win last night. But when they faced the Twins last week, they scored 22 runs in three games.  Verlander has obviously been great in 2019 as was anticipated. He held Minnesota's lineup to 1 run and 4 hits in a win last week. But the Twins still average 5.7 runs per game for the year and should be able to put more on the board here in their home park. Jake Odorizzi has been surprisingly good for Minny, but Monday's starter is also at the disadvantage of facing the opponent for the second time in a week. The Over is 5-1 the last six times Odorizzi has started a series opener. The Twins have scored 55 runs in the last eight games. Play OVER Houston-Minnesota

AAA

This is an 8* play on BOSTON

By their standard, the Red Sox have endured a terrible start to the season. Remember that at this time last year, they were 21-7. The club would finish up 52.5 units in 2018 and of course win the World Series. Fast forward to the present and they are just 11-17 and the worst bet in all of MLB. They dropped to 0-5 in Chris Sale starts yesterday, losing to the Rays 5-2. But - even if it's only temporary - there should be a turnaround this week at Fenway vs. Oakland. The A's aren't exactly playing well right now either. They just got swept for a second time this year by the Blue Jays. Sunday's loss was an 11-inning affair, the second time in three games they lost in walkoff fashion. Both Monday starters have pitched well of late as Oakland's Montas is 3-0 with a 3.50 ERA his last three starts and Boston's Rodriguez is 2-0 his last three with a 3.00 ERA. But we'll lean on the fact both of Rodriguez's starts at home have gone quite well. He's allowed just three runs and five hits in 12 2/3 innings. Play on BOSTON

AAA

This is a 10* play on HOUSTON

The series may not have started well for the Astros, but they now have a chance to earn a split with the Indians tonight on ESPN. After dropping the first two games, by scores of 2-1 and 6-3, they were able to pull out a win in 10 innings yesterday, 4-3. They may have gotten only five hits, but the big one was Tony Kemp's walkoff HR. The 'Stros have what appears to be a considerable edge in starting pitching tonight as Wade Miley goes against Carlos Carrasco. Miley has a 3.58 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in his five starts while Carrasco has struggled with a 6.00 ERA and 1.52 WHIP. Carrasco was better in his last two starts, but has twice allowed six runs on the road. Cleveland has not been good offensively this year and the road has given them real trouble when it comes to putting runs on the board. The Indians are batting only .201 when not playing at Progressive Field. Houston is 9-3 at Minute Maid Park.  Play on HOUSTON

AAA

This is an 8* play on UNDER Texas-Seattle

Seattle got clubbed yesterday, losing 15-1 to Texas. That was a case of getting a taste of its own medicine as the Mariners are the team used to putting a bunch of runs on the board. They lead the majors with 183 runs scored. But scoring over six runs per contest is a pace no team is going to be able to maintain. For the sake of comparison, only four teams averaged 5.0 runs/game last season. We have already seen the Mariners begin to taper off as they've been held to three runs or less in three of their past five ballgames. The Over is still 20-7-3 in all games, but that is going to start changing as the offense slowly begins to regress. They are also not going to be giving up anywhere close to the number of runs they allowed Saturday. Texas had not topped five runs in the last week before scoring 15 times yesterday. Starting today for the Mariners will be Erik Swanson. While 0-2, he has a 0.77 WHIP. Lance Lynn goes for the Rangers. He was hit hard by Oakland in his most recent start, but had given up two runs or less in each of three starts prior to that one. The under is 4-1 the last five times Texas has been off a win. Play UNDER Texas-Seattle

AAA

This is an 8* play on HOUSTON

It's a familiar matchup on the Western Conference side of the draw, only this year the Rockets and Warriors are playing a round earlier. Last year, the Rockets took the Warriors to the brink of elimination and had a lead at home in Game 7 before wilting. Remember they also didn't have Chris Paul for the final two games of that series. Houston may not have the home court advantage this time around, but they do have Paul back in the lineup and come in as the hotter team. While Golden State surprisingly needed six games to eliminate the Clippers in the first round, the Rockets vanquished the Jazz in just five and are now 10-2 SU/9-3 ATS the past 12 games. One of the two straight up losses was by one point (regular season finale). The Warriors have not been a good team to bet on this season and they are 17-26-1 ATS at home. Taking the points in Game 1 looks to be the way to go.  Play on HOUSTON

AAA

This is a 10* play on UNDER Houston-Golden State

Last year's Western Conference Finals between the Rockets and Warriors resulted in far more Unders (5) than Overs (1). It was a seven-game series remember (Game 1 total pushed) and the Rockets had a 3-2 series lead before Chris Paul was lost to a hamstring injury. The Under trend continued in the regular season with three of four games games going that way. It's not as if the two teams have something against scoring, it's that their respective reputations have led to consistently high totals. It's usually a hard fought game when they play with more defense being played than the public thinks. Houston won three of the four regular season games, holding Golden State under its season average three times, the exception being an overtime game. The Rockets have gotten a lot better defensively down the stretch as well. They just held Utah to an average of 97.8 points and 40.0% shooting in the first round series. The Under is 16-5 the last 21 times they have played Golden State and 21-8-1 their last 30 games overall. We expect Golden State to defend reasonably well here as well. Play UNDER Houston-Golden State

AAA

This is a 10* play on DENVER 

Historically speaking, home teams enjoy a decided edge in Game 7's in the NBA Playoffs (101-27 straight up record in shot-clock era). Look for that trend to continue with our lone Game 7 of this year's 1st round as Denver hosts San Antonio. The Nuggets are off a 17-point loss in Game 6. But before that, they'd won the last two games by a combined 32 points. Only one game in the entire series has been decided by less than nine points and each of the last three have been decided by 14 points or more. Being able to get a Game 7 at home is what Denver worked for in the regular season. They have the best home record in the league at 36-8 straight up and the numbers confirm they are a much better team here. Not only does scoring jump 6.2 points/game from road to home, their number of points allowed drops by 6.8 points/game. San Antonio (17-27 SU) happens to have the worst road record of any playoff team. We look for bench scoring and three-point shooting to be the key edge for the Nuggets in this winner take all game. Lay the points. Play on DENVER

AAA

This is an 8* play on OVER Cubs-Diamondbacks

Both starters in this matchup have really struggled so far in 2019. Yu Darvish of the Cubs has a 5.96 ERA and 1.72 WHIP after five starts. (The team is just 1-4 in those games). Zack Godley of Arizona may have a better team start record (3-2), but the personal numbers more closely resemble Darvish. Godley has a 6.67 ERA and 1.59 WHIP. So expect a lot of runs to be scored Saturday night at Chase Field. Last night, the Diamondbacks opened the series by winning 8-3. It was their fifth straight win and they've scored 8 or more runs in three of the five wins. This is the second series of the year between the teams and these games at Chase Field figure to be higher scoring than the ones at Wrigley were. The Cubs average 6.3 runs per game on the road, but also allow 6.2. The Cubs bullpen has also been quite terrible this year and things are even more dire on the road with a 7.20 ERA and 1.86 WHIP. All three Darvish starts on the road have been Overs. Four of Godley's overall starts have been Overs. The Diamondbacks have the most extra base hits in the National League with 113. They homered twice off Darvish last week. Play OVER Cubs-Arizona

AAA

This is a 10* play UNDER Yankees-Giants

Playing the Under on this matchup last night was a rare misfire for us and our lone loss on the board. We'll go with the Under again today. The Giants offense remains very poor and we remain skeptical that the "rogue's gallery" that the Yankees are trotting out as an everyday lineup can get the job done on the regular. San Francisco scored just three runs Friday, which is right in line with their season average. They are 28th in runs scored, 29th in batting average and 29th in OPS. They figure to not do much today against a starter (J.A. Happ) that has delivered two straight quality outings. Happ may need another quality outing today if the Yanks are to win though. Yes, they managed to score 11 runs last night. But they don't have Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton or a designated hitter in this series. The former two absences are due to injuries while the latter is because of National League rules. Whatever the reasons, it's certainly to the benefit of Giants starter Derek Holland, who has allowed more than three runs only once in five starts anyway. Play UNDER Yankees-Giants

AAA

This is an 8* play on UNDER Cincinnati-St. Louis

The Reds exploded for 12 runs Friday night. Such an offensive display is highly irregular for them. Before yesterday, they had barely been averaging three runs per game on the road and were batting less than .200 as a team. At the same time, they've also allowed the fewest runs among NL teams, so them holding the Cards to 1 was pretty par for the course. Obviously, Cincy has been a strong Under bet the first month of the season with 19 of their first 25 games going that way. The Under is 4-0 when Saturday starter Tyler Mahle is pitching. Figure on the Reds bats being somewhat silenced today, at least compared to yesterday's performance. Day games have resulted in even fewer runs per game than usual for the Reds. Dakota Hudson has been far from great in four starts for St. Louis, but facing the team with the lowest batting average in baseball would seem to be a favorable matchup. The Reds are also bottom five in runs and OPS. They won't be hitting five home runs again as they did Friday. Play UNDER Cincinnati-St. Louis

AAA

This is an 8* play UNDER Yankees-Giants

The Yankees have a real "skeleton crew" for a lineup right now with no Aaron Judge and no Giancarlo Stanton in the lineup. Something else they won't have in the lineup this weekend is a DH. They head to San Francisco to face the National League's Giants and tonight's game figures to be a challenge for the Pinstripes at the plate. They'll have to go against Madison Bumgarner. Stanton has actually had a lot of previous success against Bumgarner, so he'll be especially missed. No one in the projected lineup for the Yankees on Friday has ever faced Bumgarner. MadBum has a 0.97 WHIP in five starts this season. He'll be opposed by James Paxton, who has delivered back to back outstanding starts for New York. Paxton has delivered 14 consecutive scoreless innings with only five hits allowed and 24 strikeouts. The Giants are one of the worst offensive teams in all of baseball right now, hitting only .212 as a team (.196 at home) and averaging only 3.1 runs/game (2nd fewest overall). This shapes up to be a really low-scoring game. Play UNDER Yankees-Giants

AAA

This is a 10* play UNDER Angels-KC

The Angels came through in the clutch for us last night, beating the Yankees 11-5. They actually trailed 4-0 headed into the bottom of the fifth, which is when the game totally changed. That kind of effort at the plate has been pretty rare for LA this season, though there have been two previous times they scored at least 10 runs in a game. However, each time they followed with an Under the next time out. Such should be the case again tonight as they head to Kansas City. The Under is 8-2-1 in all Angels road games so far. Starter Tyler Skaggs has seen the Under go 4-0 his last four starts, even though he gave up three home runs in his last start, which was two weeks ago. He's battled a sprained left ankle. Kansas City's Danny Duffy is starting for the first time all season. His one rehab start (in Double A) went well enough. Skaggs has a 0.43 ERA in three previous starts vs. KC. The Royals also scored 10 runs in their last game, so they're due for an off-night at the plate as well. Play UNDER LA Angels-Kansas City

AAA

This is an 8* play UNDER Carolina-NY Islanders

This should be a "grind it out" series where goals are tough to come by. We expect Game 1 to be especially low scoring. The Islanders swept the Penguins in the first round and allowed just six goals in the entire series. Carolina had some ugly defensive games in the Washington series, but did a great job at limiting shots. The Capitals averaged just 27.7 shots per game, which is a low number and should serve Hurricanes goalie Petr Mrazek well moving forward. As for Islanders goalie Robin Lehner, he posted a .956 save percentage vs. the Penguins. He has been a big reason why the Islanders allowed the fewest number of goals in the league this season. The Under is 45-18-2 in the Islanders last 65 games. Game 1 has Under written all over it. Play UNDER Carolina-NY Islanders

AAA

This is an 8* play on ST. LOUIS

For the first time under the NHL's current playoff format, all four division winners from the regular season were eliminated in the first round. Dallas is responsible for one of those upsets, beating Central Division champ Nashville in six games. But while Nashville won the Central this year, they weren't the hottest team in the division down the stretch. That would be St. Louis, who is the Stars' second round opponent. The Blues were not only in last place back on January 2nd, they had the fewest number of points in the entire league (34) and had already made a coaching change. But my what a turnaround it has been under Craig Berube as the team has gone 34-12-4 SU since Jan 2nd. The Blues got rid of the Jets in six games and now have home ice advantage for a second round series, something that would have sounded completely ridiculous just three months ago. St. Louis' record as a home favorite is 14-4 the last 18 games and they are 8-2 the L10 home games overall. Though Dallas has won six of the last seven times they've met St. Louis, the home team remains 7-3 the L10 meetings. Play on ST. LOUIS

AAA

This is an 8* RUN LINE play on the LA ANGELS +1.5

For the second straight series, the Angels find themselves in an unenviable position. As the home team, they've lost the first three games of a four game series. Now in this exact same scenario, we played them Sunday against Seattle and they won. It was an easy win too as they coasted to an 8-6 victory (led 8-1 going into the 9th) behind Jaime Barria. But tonight they face the Yankees. As daunting a prospect as that may sound, two of the Angels three losses in this series have come by one run. Last night was brutal as they blew a 5-run lead and lost 6-5. Now 1-9 the L10 games, five of those losses for the Angels have come by exactly one run. So with the +1.5 now an option (wasn't Sunday vs. Seattle), we'll take it. Look for Trevor Cahill to pitch better than he has recently while we expect the opposite from Yankees starter Masahiro Tanaka. Three of the Yankees last four wins have been by one run. At this price, the run line is a tremendous value Thursday. Play on LA ANGELS +1.5

AAA

This is an 8* play on DENVER

The Nuggets were very fortunate not to be down 3-0 in this series as not only did they drop two of the first three games, but their one win (Game 2) saw them erase a 19-point second half deficit, mostly in the 4th quarter where they outscored the Spurs 39-23. But since falling behind by double digits again, early in Game 4, Denver really seems to have taken control of this series. They've won the last two games by a combined 32 points and now have a shot at closing out the Spurs tonight in Game 6. It is a road game, but the Nuggets have already won once here in San Antonio. Game 5 on Tuesday was definitely Denver's best showing in the series. They led by as many as 30 points. Nikola Jokic is almost averaging a triple double in his first ever playoff series and the Spurs appear to have no answer for him. Denver has pretty clearly been the better of these two teams most of this year. The Spurs are only 1-6 ATS their last 7 home games. Play on DENVER 

AAA

This is a 10* play on UTAH

Utah stayed alive by winning Game 4, handily. They beat the Rockets 107-91 and that margin of victory should have them confident enough to head into Game #5 with a sense that further extending their season is a possibility. We're not saying the Jazz will win this one, but taking the points is the right way to go. Houston did not shoot the ball well either game in Salt Lake City. They shot 38.4% as a team in Game #3 with James Harden missing his first 15 attempts from the field. Then they shot 35.4% in Game #4, collectively missing their final 13 attempts from three-point range. Yes, the series now shifts back to Houston. But the Jazz are going to compete here a lot more than they did in either Games #1 and #2. This is too many points for Houston to lay to a desperate Utah team. Play on UTAH

AAA

This is an 8* play on WASHINGTON

While Carolina was the call for Game 6, the home team has won every game in this series and we don't see that changing tonight in Game 7. Home teams won both Game 7's last night in the Stanley Cup playoffs with Boston and San Jose each advancing. This series has seen the home team really dominate, including a 6-0 win by the Capitals in Game 5. While each team has tallied 17 goals in the series, scoring has been really lopsided in favor of the home team. Washington has scored a total of 14 goals in the three home games in the series as opposed to just three in Carolina. The Hurricanes have scored just five in the three games here in D.C. and 12 at home. The Hurricanes have lost six in a row as a money line underdog while the Capitals are 6-0 the last six times they have been a money line favorite in the playoffs. The Caps are also 16-5 the last 21x they've been favored on the money line, period. Play on WASHINGTON

AAA

This is an 8* play OVER Detroit-Boston

This three-game report really sees us "bucking" the early season trends. We're going Over with the top Under team (Cincinnati) and Under on one of the top Over teams (Baltimore). Right below the Reds in the Under "pecking order" is a Detroit team whose games are averaging less than 7.0 runs (14-8 Under). They've scored the third fewest runs while giving up the fifth fewest. But, in line with the rest of today's card, we're going the other way today. Yesterday, they swept Boston in a day/night doubleheader here at Fenway Park (won 7-4 and 4-2). The Red Sox couldn't possibly be more disappointing and a big reason for that is they have given up the second most runs in all of baseball. Only Baltimore has given up more. Tonight's starter Eduardo Rodriguez has been a big part of the problem as he has a 7.20 ERA and 1.65 WHIP through four starts. The Red Sox bullpen has also been very bad this year. Tyson Ross will start for the Tigers and he has struggled in both road starts, walking more batters (8) than he has struck out (7). His ERA and WHIP in those two starts are: 4.91 and 1.55 respectively. Play OVER Detroit-Boston

AAA

analysis coming

This is an 8* Play OVER Atlanta-Cincinnati

The Reds are by far and away the top Under team in baseball right now. They came into last night's game vs. Atlanta sporting a 17-4 Under mark in the first 21 games. But wouldn't you know - last night's game went Over with the Reds bats even showing up for once. They won 7-6, which snapped a 7-game Under streak. Three of the Reds previous four Overs came in a row, but since then the Under had been 10-1. Tonight, we'll look for another Over. Last night was the Reds most runs scored in a game since crushing Miami 14-0 back on the 9th. They may be last in batting average, but as we saw last night, Atlanta can be accommodating. The Braves are giving up 6.3 runs/game on the road, the highest average in all of baseball. Mike Soroka will start for them here and he has just one start under his belt. On the flip side, Atlanta is scoring 6.2 runs/game itself on the road. Is it any wonder the Over is 7-2 in their nine road games? Braves hitters are quite familiar with the pitcher they'll face today, Tanner Roark, who spent the last several seasons with Washington. Play OVER Atlanta-Cincinnati 

AAA

This is an 8* play on OKC

It's probably fair to say that the majority of first round series in the NBA Playoffs have gone "according to script." The way the Rockets handled the Jazz in the first three games of that series was maybe a little surprising. But probably not as surprising to most as the fact that it's Portland up three games to one on Oklahoma City. This was a series where the lower seeded team was actually favored to advance. The Thunder swept the regular season series, winning all four times against the Blazers. Portland also has a key player injured (Jusuf Nurkic). Game 4 is what probably jumped out to most as the Blazers became the first road team to win a game in the series. They held Russell Westbrook without a basket in the second half, which is really stunning. We know that the Thunder have lost the public's trust, but not ours as we like them plus the points facing elimination. Remember they actually closed as the favorite for Game #2 here in Portland, so there's some good value. Play on OKC

AAA

This is a 10* play OVER Vegas-San Jose

Of the five Round 1 series that are now in the books, the lower seeded team is a perfect 5-0. That's a good sign for Vegas (the team, not necessarily the sportsbooks) here for Game 7 in San Jose. But a 2-1 double overtime loss in Game 6, at home, was not a good sign. That kind of loss can definitely be difficult to get over. While we don't rule the Golden Knights out, we definitely wouldn't play them here, or touch the moneyline either way. Though the teams combined for just three goals in 90+ minutes in Game #6, expect more scoring here for Game #7. Game #6 was the first in the series where the winning team did NOT score at least five goals. Vegas had 59 shots on goal though. While Sharks goalie Martin Jones has definitely gotten hot the last two games (stopped 88 of 91 shots), let's not be quick to forget the fact that Vegas scored 16 goals in Games #2-4. On the road, the Golden Knights are prone to giving up more goals too. They allowed the third fewest # of goals per game at home in the regular season. On the road, they ranked #17. Play OVER Vegas-San Jose

AAA

This is a 10* play UNDER Texas-Oakland

I took Oakland last night and that was a pretty easy winner as they blew out the Rangers 6-1. The teams had a similar number of hits (A's 7 to Rangers 6), but the obvious difference is that the A's were able to take advantage when they had runners in scoring position. The final result was also a departure from what we'd seen from each club recently. Texas came into this series having won 6 of 7. But all those games were played in Arlington. The road has seen them go just 2-5 and they've been held to two runs or less in four of those seven games. Oakland had lost five of six going into yesterday and had scored two runs or less in four of its last five. We expect a low scoring game tonight as two good looking starting pitchers take the hill. Lance Lynn is one Ranger not bothered by the road. His two starts away from Arlington have yielded a 2.08 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. Oakland's Frankie Montas has a 1.46 ERA and 0.65 WHIP in two home starts. Montas has yet to allow more than 3 ER in a start while Lynn has given up just five in his last 18 2/3 innings pitched. Play UNDER Texas-Oakland

AAA

This is a 10* play on UNDER Brooklyn-Philadelphia

Brooklyn has been a little tougher than expected for Philadelphia, yet they come into tonight facing elimination on the road. The Nets took Game 1 by holding the Sixers to only 102 points and they'll need a similar effort on the defensive end if they are to stay alive tonight. The good news is the Nets were better defensively in Game 4, allowing 112 points, but it still wasn't enough to get the win at home. But it was a marked improvement from Games #2 and #3 when they gave up 145 and 131 points. As for the offense, Brooklyn is only shooting 43.0% overall in the series. Philly plays a little better defense at home (110.5 PPG allowed) and this total would appear to be a little high. The Nets are 8-3 Under the last 11 times they have been off an ATS loss. Play UNDER Brooklyn-Philadelphia

AAA

This is an 8* play on the METS

This series started with the Mets winning 5-1 last night on ESPN. For the Mets, it was a much needed result after dropping six of eight, including two of three over the weekend in St. Louis. The Phillies still share lead the NL East at 12-10 overall, though they have a positive run differential while the Mets are still "in the black." But we won't pay much mind to that tonight due to the Phillies having a banged up lineup that simply isn't hitting much right now. They are just 7 for 39 with runners in scoring position the last five games and were held to three hits total in Monday's loss. Philly has scored three runs or less in five of its last six games and just one each of the last two games. Tonight, they'll face Zach Wheeler, who pitched well against them last week only to get a hard luck loss. It was the second straight quality start for Wheeler and his longest of the year. Philly turns to Eflin, who has yet to pitch against the Mets this year. But in seven career starts against them, his ERA is 5.25. We like the Mets here. Play on NY METS

AAA

This is an 8* play on HOUSTON

We also look for Houston to close out Utah Monday night. It's pretty clear that the Jazz are overmatched in this series and Game #3 was basically their "death knell." Losing at home on a night where James Harden shot the ball horribly is not something that can be overcome nor is a 3-0 series deficit. Going back to the end of the regular season, the Rockets have won and covered 9 of the last 10 games. The only loss was by one point to Oklahoma City, which in retrospect was the worst possible thing to happen to the Jazz. That loss caused Houston to drop a spot in the standings, setting up this matchup. Utah would have been a lot better off playing Portland. The Jazz did beat the Rockets in a couple of early season meetings, but have since dropped five straight to them. Like the Pistons, they have shot very poorly in the playoffs (40.1 FG%) and are averaging less than 100 points/game (96.3). We don't even have to lay a big number here like we do with the Bucks. You can bank on Harden having a better shooting night than he did in Game #3. The Rockets look like one of the best teams in the league right now. Play on HOUSTON. 

AAA

This is an 8* play on OAKLAND

Both teams are off one-run games Sunday, the only difference being that Texas won theirs. That lone difference is pretty indicative of the way the respective teams come into this series. The Rangers have won six out of their last seven while the A's have dropped five of their last six. Oakland was just swept here at home by Toronto, scoring just 1 run in each of the first two games, then leaving the potential game-winning run on base for the final out yesterday. At least the A's managed to score four times on Sunday. The offense should wake up tonight against Mike Minor, even though Minor has pitched pretty well since a shaky first start. Minor is off a complete game shutout, his third quality start in a role, but we're still not sold. Oakland turns to Chris Bassitt, who is making his first start of the year. Something to watch for here is how much the Rangers tend to drop off offensively on the road. They've lost 15 of the last 19 games here in Oakland as well. Play on OAKLAND

AAA

This is an 8* play on MILWAUKEE

We expect both series to close out tonight, starting in Detroit where the Pistons appear as ill-prepared for the playoffs as any team in recent memory. They have been completely dominated by the Bucks, losing all three games by 16 or more points and there's no reason to believe Game #4 will be any different. Milwaukee is completely superior in every way here and not even the return of Blake Griffin can change that as he's not completely healthy. In the series, the Pistons have been held to an average of 96 points per game on 38.0% shooting, showing that Milwaukee (the East's highest scoring team) can also play some defense. The Bucks are #1 in defensive efficiency in the league in addition to being #1 overall in scoring. They have outscored the Pistons by 72 points through three games. Giannis Antetokounmpo only scored 14 points Saturday, his fewest in any game since January and the Bucks still won by 16. Detroit hasn't won a playoff game since '08 and that certainly won't change here. Play on MILWAUKEE.

AAA

This is an 8* play UNDER Milwaukee-Detroit

We already talked about the Bucks defense, which has held the Pistons to an average of 96 points per game on 38.0% shooting, and ranks #1 in the league in efficiency. Detroit didn't exactly come into the playoffs as any kind of offensive juggernaut either. They had the lowest offensive efficiency rating of any playoff team, so this really was a mismatch from the start. Furthermore, the Pistons are bottom five in the league in true shooting and effective field goal %. Milwaukee is averaging 120 points/game in the series and as a result the last two games both went Over. But even though we like them to cover, we'll call for a slight decrease in scoring for Game #4. The Under is 6-0 the last six times following a game where Detroit scored 100 points. The Under is also on a 15-6-1 run when they are off a double digit loss at home. Play UNDER Milwaukee-Detroit

AAA

This is a 10* play on CAROLINA

Our call on Carolina in Game #5 was obviously quite bad. They did outshoot Washington, but the fact that they lost 6-0 makes that rather irrelevant. Now it's do or die time for the Hurricanes as they face elimination. Fortunate for them they'll be back in Raleigh for Game #6. The home team has won every game in this series and we believe that pattern will hold true tonight and thus we're headed for a Game #7 back in Washington. As discussed going into the last game, Carolina has done an effective job at limiting the number of shots by the Capitals in this series. Washington is only averaging 25.6 shots per game. This was a strength of Carolina in the regular season. So was getting the puck on net as they were tops in the league in shots per game themselves. The Caps are just 2-5 SU their last seven games as an underdog. Carolina is 13-3 its last 16 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. They are also 4-1 the last five times following a loss by three or more goals. They held Washington to one goal in the two previous games here. Play on CAROLINA

AAA

This is an 8* play UNDER Toronto-Oakland

Toronto is seeking a three-game sweep in Oakland on Sunday. They've taken the first two games by scores of 5-1 and 10-1. Once again, we expect the home team to do little scoring. Over their last four games, the A's have scored a grand total of five runs, never scoring more than two in any game. That kind of offensive output is a far cry from how they started the year. At one point, they had gone Over in eight straight games. As for the Blue Jays, they've been one of the weaker offensive teams in all of baseball. Saturday marked a season high in both runs (10) and hits (15), so expect a lot less at the plate today. Oakland's Brett Anderson is 3-0 this year with a 2.62 ERA. Toronto's Aaron Sanchez is 2-1 with a 2.86 ERA. Sunday's two starters should "rule the day" here in a game that shouldn't see much offense. The Blue Jays have only allowed 84 runs in 22 games. It's a little surprising that the Under hasn't come in more for them, but it will today. Play UNDER Toronto-Oakland

AAA

This is an 8* play on LA CLIPPERS

The Clippers have trailed big in all three games so they should feel lucky to only be down 2-1 in the series. Game 2 saw them pull off the greatest comeback in NBA Playoff history, at least in terms of margin overcome (31 points). But they were never really in Game #3. Golden State led by 17 after one quarter and was up 33 entering the fourth. The Warriors have enjoyed a lead of at least 19 points in all three games. But Game #4 should be different. The Clippers shot poorly in Game #3, especially from deep where they went 7 of 32. They shot 37.2% overall, which won't cut it against the Warriors. That's surprising too as LA has been a strong home team all season. Golden State was obviously motivated going into Game #3 after blowing the 31-point lead in Game #2. Will that same motivation be present today? The Warriors are 4-10 ATS off a their previous 14 ATS victories. Play on LA CLIPPERS

AAA

This is an 8* play UNDER Washington-Miami

Miami just fired its hitting coach. Considering they had scored the fewest number of runs in all of baseball, it was a predictable move. In their first game since the firing, they scored nine runs in a shocking display against Max Scherzer and in the process guaranteed they'd win their first series all year. We seriously doubt it was all on the hitting coach though and with the hitters remaining the same, expect the Marlins struggles at the plate to continue moving forward. They'll have to face arch nemesis Stephen Strasburg today. Strasburg has had Miami's number through the years. In 31 career games, he's 17-7 against them with a 3.02 ERA. In 173 innings pitched, he has 182 strikeouts. Miami will go with Trevor Richards, who has a killer changeup, but zero wins. But with the Nationals having been held to four runs or less in seven of the last eight games, Richards may very well be in line for that elusive victory today. Regardless, this will be a low-scoring affair. Play UNDER Washington-Miami

AAA

This is an 8* play UNDER White Sox-Tigers

These teams were rained out on Saturday, thus they finish what will be a three-game set here and this is a rubber match. Detroit took the first game 9-7. They gave up seven runs again the second time, but this time couldn't score enough to keep pace with the White Sox, who limited the Tigers to just three on Friday. The Tigers probably like their chances going against Reynaldo Lopez today as he's really struggled this year with an 8.85 ERA and 2.12 WHIP. But Lopez was much better in his last start where he held the Royals to just one run in six innings. Detroit goes with Daniel Norris, who will be making his first start of 2019. Norris, who has pitched out of the bullpen so far, was slated to go yesterday before Mother Nature came calling. He has pitched well in the past vs. the White Sox (2.53 ERA in five appearances). This is Lopez's scheduled turn, so he's working on normal rest (Ervin Santana skipped). Lopez has had success against Detroit (3.22 ERA in seven starts). The Tigers are only averaging 3.0 runs/game. This one stays Under. Play UNDER Chicago-Detroit

AAA

This is a 10* play on BOSTON

We look for Boston to finish off the sweep Sunday. It's pretty clear to us at this point that Indiana just can't get consistent scoring nor can they beat Boston. It's not just this series you see. There were also two meetings late in the regular season where the Celtics dominated. Four of the five losses have seen the Pacers held under 100 points. Now they have held the halftime lead in two of the three games in this series and only trailed by two in the other. But they are averaging only 35 points in the second half and that will obviously not cut the mustard. Indiana has only won 4 of its last 12 games overall, so in a way you could see this early playoff flameout coming. In the regular season, it was the defense that was costing the Pacers down the stretch. They allowed 11 of their last 13 opponents to score at least 102 points. Now its the offense that is averaging only 87 points per game in the playoffs/ The Celtics underachieved in the regular season, but are clearly hitting their stride now. Play on BOSTON

AAA

This is a 10* play on LA ANGELS

We had the Under in last night's game and that cashed with little room to spare. It was a 5-3 win for the Mariners, who came into the series having lost six in a row (swept by both Cleveland and Houston). Now its the Angels that have dropped five straight and they are also 0-4 this year vs. Seattle. Though an impressive 15-8 with 148 runs scored, we're not sold on this hot start lasting for the Mariners. Nor are we sold on the Angels being as bad as they've looked. The home run ball has been huge thus far for Seattle and last night (hit four of them) accounted for all five runs. That's concerning with Saturday's starter for the Angels (Trevor Cahill) having been so susceptible to the long ball so far. But look for Cahill to turn it around here. He previously held the Mariners to one run on three hits back on April 3rd. He's off a rough showing in Texas, but had gone at least six innings each of the first three starts. The Mariners go with Kikuchi, making his 6th start tonight. He has a 5.29 ERA in the last three and has been a slow starter. He's also still winless. That will stay the case after tonight. Play on LA ANGELS

AAA

This is a 9* play on CAROLINA

Carolina has done a great job getting back into this series. So far, the home team has won all four games, but that trend is about to change. The Hurricanes have held the Capitals to an average of just 26.4 shots attempts per game, which is the lowest amount for any team in the playoffs. After cruising to a 5-0 victory in Game #3, the Hurricanes were able to prevail in a tight Game #4, winning 2-1. They did an excellent job defensively the last two games as Washington's lone goal came via the power play. Carolina has dominated the puck, nothing new as they led the league in shots per game during the regular season. We're not convinced the Hurricanes aren't the better team here and they're a great value at 'plus money' for Game #5. Over the last 48 games, they have gone 32-16 while Washington is only 26-22. Play on CAROLINA

AAA

This is a 10* play UNDER Nuggets-Spurs

Given the pace these teams typically play at, we've been a bit surprised to see the last two games go Over. What we were not surprised about in Game 3 was San Antonio winning and getting the cover. We laid the points with the Spurs, noting that they easily could have taken both games in Denver (blew late lead in Game 2). They got the job done in Game 3 despite the Nuggets shooting better than 50% overall and from three-point range. It was the Nuggets' 14th straight loss here in San Antonio. It's tough to imagine them shooting any better than they did in Game 3. It's also tough to imagine the Spurs Derrick White coming anywhere close to the career high 36 points he turned in two nights ago. Again, pace of play is key as both teams rank in the bottom five in adjusted tempo. Denver is in some real trouble in this series, but we like the Under most of all for Game 4 as some of the numbers we saw in Game 3 won't be matched here. The Under is 20-8 in  Denver's past 28 games. Play UNDER Denver-San Antonio

AAA

This is a 10* play on NASHVILLE

Being that they're the home team for Game 5, Nashville needs this one more as they certainly want to avoid the possibility of facing elimination when they go to Dallas for Game 6. Now such a scenario obviously doesn't guarantee victory and the Stars would love to head back home with a chance to close out the series. But we lean towards the Predators in this one as they typically do an admirable job of bouncing back from a blowout loss. They're on a 5-1 streak when coming off a loss where they allowed five or more goals. They've also won four straight times after being beaten by three or more goals. Champions of the Central Division, the Predators are the better team here. They made the mistake of giving up three power play goals in the first period of Game 4, but that won't happen again now that goaltender Pekka Rinne is rested (was pulled early). Dallas only averages 2.3 goals per game on the road. Play on NASHVILLE

AAA

This is a 7* play on CALGARY

Calgary must win to stay alive tonight (down 3-1 in the series) and fortunately they return to home ice where they won Game 1 and are 27-11-5 this season. No team had a higher goals per game average at home this year. The Flames averaged 4.05 goals/game at home in the regular season and basically hit that average in a 4-0 shutout back in Game 1. They have twice blown a third period lead in the last three games. Game 2 was here at home and they allowed the game tying goal late before losing in overtime. Game 4 in Colorado may have been even worse as they had a 2-0 lead with less than 12 minutes remaining, but then gave up two goals and lost again in OT. The Avalanche remain 2-11 their last 13 games as a road underdog of +110 and +150 and we just can't see them beating Calgary four straight times. Play on CALGARY

AAA

This is an 8* play UNDER Seattle-LA Angels

Something had to give last night as the Mariners, losers of six in a row, took on an Angels team that had dropped three straight. Turns out that it was the former's losing skid that came to an end and it did so in a way that has been all too familiar - Seattle scoring a ton of runs. They won 11-10, increasing their league leading total of runs scored to 143 (in 22 games played). The Mariners actually blew an 8-run advantage before scoring the go-ahead run in the top of the 9th. The Angels scored all but one of their runs in one inning (7th) and the absence of a big inning tonight is probable for a team that's gone 13-5-1 Under in all games this season. Even worse is they are facing a lefty (Marco Gonzales) and are 1-4 vs. lefties (Under is 5-0), scoring only 1.8 runs/game and batting .173. Gonzales has allowed three runs or fewer in three straight starts. Seattle had cooled off considerably at the plate before yesterday's explosion. During the six-game losing streak, all of which was at home, they had scored a total of 15 runs. Angels starter Pena has a 1.05 ERA in two home starts. Play UNDER Seattle-LA Angels

AAA

This is a 10* play OVER Boston-Indiana

Talk about low scoring. It doesn't get much more low scoring than what we've seen in the first two games of this Celtics-Pacers series. Boston is up 2-0 despite not scoring 100 points in either game. They've held Indiana to 74 and 91 points, really taking charge in the second half of both games. After shooting very poorly themselves in the first half of Game 1, the Celtics held the Pacers to eight points in the third quarter and went on to cruise to victory. Game 2 saw them hold Indiana without a field goal over the last five minutes. But now the Pacers are back home and we should see a pretty substantial improvement in their shooting. They are just 38.8% from the field in the series, including 31% from three-point range. For the year, they are shooting 47.8% overall and 38.1% from three at home. Boston is also a better offensive team that what they've shown so far. Only three players scored more than six points in Game 2 and you figure that has to change as well. The Pacers have had three sub-20 point quarters in the series. There will be nothing of the sort Friday as the Over is 4-1 the last five meetings in Indiana. Play OVER Boston-Indiana

AAA

This is a 10* play UNDER Royals-Yankees

The surprising thing about last night's game between the Royals and Yankees was who won. The Royals punched a ticket at +182 on the money line, winning 6-1 here at Yankee Stadium. New York continues to struggle as their record is 8-10, although having a positive run differential says they've played better than you might think. What was not surprising about last night's game is that it stayed Under the total. The Yankees last five games have all stayed Under. For the Royals, that streak is four straight. Expect tonight's game to be another low scoring affair. The Yankees are averaging only 3.8 runs per game at home. We mentioned that in another Under play we had on them earlier this week (against Boston). The Royals are scoring even less on the road (3.4 runs/game) while batting .218. All three Jake Junis starts have gone Over this year, but it's critical to note two of them did not see more than nine total runs scored. CC Sabathia pitched better than anyone could have imagined in his only start. He held the White Sox scoreless for five frames while allowing just one hit. Play UNDER Royals-Yankees

AAA

This is a 10* play UNDER Golden State-LA Clippers

With both teams shooting better than 53% in Game 2 and combining for 266 total points, it's no wonder that the total is so high for Game 3. Of course the "real" story from Monday night is that the Clippers erased a 31-point deficit in the second half and won straight up as 14-point underdogs. In terms of margin, it was the greatest comeback in playoff history. Golden State will obviously be fired up for Game 3 and we see them turning things up on the defensive end. The Under is 4-1 the last five times the Warriors allowed 125 or more points the previous game. It is also a perfect 6-0 if they themselves topped 125 the last game. This is the highest total for any of the three games so far and three of the four regular season meetings also went Under. Neither team will shoot the ball as well as they did in Game 2 and Golden State is now without DeMarcus Cousins. Play UNDER Golden State-LA Clippers

AAA

This is an 8* play on SAN ANTONIO

San Antonio very easily - and probably should - be up 2-0 in this series. After a superb defensive effort allowed them to take Game 1, the Spurs were up by 19 in Game 2 and appeared well on their way to taking both games in Denver. But then Jamal Murray went off for the Nuggets, scoring 21 of his 24 points in the fourth quarter (had started the game 0 for 8). The Nuggets outscored the Spurs 39-23 in the 4th and now we head back to San Antonio tied at one game apiece. While having the league's best home record, Denver is below .500 on the road. San Antonio's home vs. road split is even more pronounced. They should actually be thrilled to have earned a split in Denver, given a 16-25 SU road record. At home they are 32-9 and shoot 41.9% from three-point range. Defensively, the Spurs have made major strides the last couple months. Before the 4th quarter happened Tuesday, it looked like they might hold Denver under 100 pts in two straight games. Going back to 2012, the Nuggets have lost 13 straight here in San Antonio. Play on SAN ANTONIO

AAA

This is a 7* play on MINNESOTA

Minnesota finally broke through with a win in this series, beating Toronto yesterday by a count of 4-1. Monday had seen them lose 5-3 (thanks to the bullpen blowing a 3-1 lead in the 8th inning) and then Tuesday was a one-run loss. So you could say that the Twins were due yesterday and sure enough they came through. The teams finish out the four-game set today with a pitching matchup of Clay Buchholz vs. Michael Pineda. We think it's fair to still be concerned about a Blue Jays lineup that is batting only .215 this season. The Twins are 3-0 in starts made by Pineda so far with him delivering a 3.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. Buchholz has pitched just once, delivering Toronto a huge upset (at +190) against Tampa Bay. The Jays nearly wasted his effort as they were scoreless until the ninth when they struck for three runs. This being a day game would seem to favor the home team. Minnesota is already 6-2 in day games this season while Toronto is just 4-5. Twins earn a split of the series. Play on MINNESOTA

AAA

This is a 10* play on CALGARY

The Flames are still the better team here despite being down in the series two games to one. We fully expect them to tie up the series tonight before heading back to Calgary for Game 5. After easily taking Game 1 (won 4-0), the Flames lost Game 2 in overtime. That was a tough result considering they were less than three minutes away from taking a 2-0 series lead. But they gave up a late game-tying goal and then the game-winner quickly in OT. While quite potent offensively at home, the Flames are just as stingy defensively when they head out on the road. No team gave up a fewer number of goals as the road team in the regular season. So look for the Flames to "tighten the screws" for Game 4 after being torched for six goals in Game 3. They are still 9-3 the last 12 matchups against Colorado.  Play on CALGARY

AAA

This is a 10* play on DETROIT

The Pistons appeared ill-prepared for their 1st postseason game since 2016. Playing without Blake Griffin, they were no match for top seed Milwaukee, who thumped them 121 to 86 as 15-point favorites. Detroit last won a playoff game in 2008. If they continue to play the way they did Sunday, that streak will continue into next year. It's not a shocker to see the number at where it is for Game 2. Few will give the Pistons a shot Wednesday, let alone the rest of the series. They've played the Bucks five times this year and five times they have lost, four of those coming by 10 or more points. The three games in Milwaukee have seen them lose by 35, 23 and 23 points. But as the Clippers showed Monday, anything is possible in the playoffs. After a blowout loss is often the best time to bet on a team (zig zag theory!) and while we don't see Detroit winning Game 2, we do expect them to cover. While Griffin seems unlikely to play, Andre Drummond won't be ejected again like he was in Game 1. Generally speaking, this is too many points to lay in the playoffs and the Pistons will play better this time. Play on DETROIT

AAA

This is an 8* play UNDER San Francisco-Washington

The Giants are one of the weakest teams offensively in either league. They rank dead last in OPS and are bottom three in both runs scored and team batting average. So selecting the Under when they take the field seems only natural. We really like the idea of doing so tonight as they actually scored seven times last night, which matched a season high for them. In more than half of their games (11 of 19), the Giants have been held to three runs or less. Washington knows that feeling as well. They've been held to exactly three runs in four straight games. The Giants shocking hit 3 HR's last night off Stephen Strasburg, matching the total # of HR's hit from the previous six games combined. Look for the power surge to be short-lived, however, as they go up against Jeremy Hellickson, who threw six shutout innings at Philadelphia exactly one week ago. Hellickson also has a history of success when facing San Francisco. The Under is 16-3 in his last 19 starts. History has not been kind to Giants starter Jeff Samardzija when facing the Nationals, but he has pitched well in 2019 (1.62 ERA in three starts) and is being backed by a bullpen that entered yesterday's game with a 1.77 ERA. Play UNDER San Francisco-Washington

AAA

This is an 8* play on UNDER Indiana-Boston

All eight Game 1's in the NBA Playoffs went Under and none were lower scoring than Indiana-Boston, which was an 84-74 Celtics win. To say the Pacers performance in the third quarter was "ugly" would be an understatement. They scored all of eight points! That one quarter was the difference in the game. It turned a seven-point halftime lead into an 11-point deficit going into the 4th quarter. Boston did not outscore Indiana in any other quarter. But enough about that. Game 2 promises to be low scoring too. Maybe not as low scoring as Game 1, but low enough for the Under to hit again. Indiana's calling card all season has been defense. They give up the fewest number of points per game (104.6 in regular season) in the league. We've also seen how they're going to struggle (mightily) to score in this series (remember, no Victor Oladpio). The Under is 9-2 in Indiana's last nine road games and 21-10 their last 31 visits to Boston. Play UNDER Indiana-Boston

AAA

This is an 8* play UNDER Cleveland-Seattle

My, oh my, has Seattle hit the skids. It's now five losses in a row. Can't say that we're surprised considering they couldn't possibly continue the torrid pace they set at the plate to start the year. They have actually homered in every game this season, but they're getting little else, at least recently. The last four games have seen the Mariners score a grand total of 9 runs. Meanwhile, Cleveland hasn't had much offense all season. Not that they've needed much in this series, but 10 runs scored in two games is actually a lot for the Indians. They are averaging just 3.6 runs/game with a team batting average of .207. They are bottom four not only in team batting average, but also in OPS. Carlos Carrasco has not pitched well on the road so far, turning in two pretty dreadful showings. But we expect Carrasco to resemble the pitcher of the last few seasons today. Pitching for Seattle will be Erik Swanson, who is starting for the first time at the big league level. While he's worked in relief previously, Swanson is still an unknown to the Cleveland hitters, so that's an advantage for the pitcher. Take our word for it - this is going to be a low scoring game. Play UNDER Cleveland-Seattle

AAA

This is an 8* play UNDER Red Sox-Yankees

Are the Red Sox actually BAD? By the numbers, the answer would be a resounding "yes." Last night's loss dropped them to 6-12 on the season. It's not just that they are losing though. They are routinely getting crushed. The Yankees beat them 8-0 Tuesday, which drops the Red Sox season run differential to -40. Only Miami, who isn't even trying this year, has been outscored by more runs. The culprit for Boston has been awful pitching as they've given up the most runs. But a once mighty lineup isn't scoring anywhere close to the same rate as last season. Take the last two games. They've scored just ONE run. The team is hitting just .229 this season. Yes, both of tonight's starting pitchers have not been good. Boston's Nathan Eovaldi has a 3-0 team start record, but both his ERA (8.40) and WHIP (1.867) aren't good. The same holds true for J.A. Happ of the Yankees as he has an 8.76 ERA and 1.946 WHIP. But despite these gaudy numbers, we expect tonight's game to go Under.  Boston just isn't doing much scoring while the Yankees are only averaging 4.0 runs/game at home. The Under is 6-1 the last 7 games here. This would have been an appropriate total last season, not this season. Play UNDER Red Sox-Yankees

AAA

This is an 8* play on VEGAS

Though they did take Game 1 at home, San Jose has kind of fallen apart over the last month. They have achieved victory just 4 times in the last 15 games and have lost Games 2 and 3 to Vegas. In less than two years time, the Golden Knights have achieved one of the league's premier home ice advantages, having gone 61-25-7 SU all-time at T-Mobile Arena, including an 8-3 playoff record. Considering Vegas gives up the third fewest goals in the league at home, it's going to be tough for the Sharks to score here. That they scored three times and lost in Game 3 seems like a potential lost opportunity. Vegas has found the back of the net 11 times in just the last two games and the three top point earners in the playoffs all wear Golden Knights jerseys. That includes Mark Stone who already has six goals in the series! Knights fans are used to seeing plenty of fireworks in home games as the team averages 35.6 shots per game at home, second most in the league. Play on VEGAS

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