Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-16-22 | Cowboys v. Eagles OVER 43.5 | Top | 17-26 | Loss | -110 | 155 h 7 m | Show |
10* OVER Cowboys/Eagles (NFC EAST TOY) Scoring is down so far in NFL Prime Time games. Last Sunday's 19-17 win for Baltimore over Cincinnati was no exception. But I expect this lop-sided trend to start correcting itself finally here in Week 6. The Eagles are off a tight, but low-scoring 20-17 win over Arizona, while Dallas pulled away for the 22-10 win over the defending champs on their own field. Tony Pollard had a 57 yard TD run and Cooper Rush looked "OK" with 102 yards in the Cowboys' win. The Dallas defense looked good, but that was against a pathetic Rams offense, which was missing three starters on the offensive line. Now they have to travel on the road again here and I think the unit will struggle to contain this confident Eagles team. Jalen Hurts had difficulty moving the ball on the road, but I think he'll have a much easier time at home in this important divisional contest. Look for a wide-open offensive affair this weekend in Philadelphia, one that flies well "over" the posted number! AAA Sports |
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10-16-22 | Bills v. Chiefs +3 | 24-20 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
9* CHIEFS (ASSASSIN) I'm going to grab the points and expect a battle until the final moments. The Chiefs ended the Bills season last year. They were up by a field goal with less than a minute left, but Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs ended up winning in OT in last year's playoffs. Buffalo enters at 4-1. It comes in off the 38-3 win over Pittsburgh. The Bills average 30.1 PPG, and they have the second ranked defense, giving up 12.2 PPG. The Chiefs average 31.8 PPG, while allowing 25. KC has been involved in a couple shootouts, so its defensive numbers are a tiny bit skewed in my opinion. This is a difficult matchup for Josh Allen and the Bills. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points; the play is Kansas City! AAA Sports |
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10-16-22 | Cardinals v. Seahawks +3 | 9-19 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
8* Seahawks (SPECIAL) Divisional matchups are always the most important and they almost always mean the most to the home side. Arizona and Seattle are both 2-3 SU. The Cards are 2-0 SU/ATS on the road, but I think they'll finally stumble here in this difficult road venue. The Cardinals are coming off a disappointing loss to the Eagles last week. Kyler Murray has 1,241 passing yards and six passing TD's while also rushing for 133 and two more TD's. DeAndre Hopkins will return next week. The Seahawks fell 39-32 in New Orleans last week. Geno Smith has 1,305 passing yards, nine passing TDs' and only two INT's. Tyler Lockett has 406 yards receiving and two TD's. Neither team can afford to lose this game. I like Seattle too, at the very least, keep this one tight till the very end; grab the points! AAA Sports |
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10-15-22 | Blue Jackets +1.5 v. Blues | 2-5 | Loss | -130 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
8* JACKETS puckline (SPECIAL) Columbus is 0-2 now after last night's 5-2 loss at home to the Lightning. They'll be eager to avoid the 0-3 hole here. Playing the second game of a back-to-back is normally a difficult thing, but not in this case. The season has just started and these athletes are in supreme shape. In fact, I'll argue that with those two games now under their belts, the Blue Jackets can feel confident moving forward that they've worked out a few issues. St. Louis on the other hand has been off for an entire week since its last pre-season contest. St. Louis has a few key players starting the season on the IL as well, so that doesn't bode well. I think an outright upset is a possibility, but in the end the value here lies with grabbing the visiting side on the puckline option! AAA Sports |
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10-15-22 | New Mexico v. New Mexico State +7 | 9-21 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show | |
8* New Mexico State (BLOWOUT) This is the 112th version of the Rio Grande Rivalry, and while I'll stop short in calling for an outright upset, I think we're going to see a tight battle until the final whistle. New Mexico is off a 27-14 home loss to Wyoming last weekend nad it's now lost two in a row. New Mexico State lost 21-7 to FIU two weeks ago, and it comes in focussed after its bye week. The Lobos average 259.7 yards per game on offense. The Lobos defense has been better though in allowing 22.8 PPG. The Aggies have been conceding 32.2 PPG in the early going. New Mexico State beat Hawaii 45-26 at home, but it's also been shutout twice. That won't be the case here today though at home, as I think the week off to prepare will be advantageous. New Mexico has won three straight in this series, and it may win a fourth as well. But it won't be easy. Grab the points, the play is New Mexico State! AAA Sports |
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10-15-22 | Northern Illinois v. Eastern Michigan UNDER 66 | Top | 39-10 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
10* UNDER NIU/EMU (MAC TOM) NIU is just 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS. It's seen the total go "over" the number in all six of its games that it's played in this season. EMU is 4-2 SU and 2-4 ATS, and it's seen the total go "over" the number in four of its six games this year, including in its 45-23 road win at WMU last week. Both teams have been playing to many high-scoring games this season, hence the large O/U line we have attached to this one. But I expect a more defensive affair. NIU is off a 52-32 loss to Toledo, but it's seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 after allowing 50 or more points in a SU/ATS loss in its previous outing. EMU is very similar in that it has a good offense, and weak defense. These facts though have only helped in driving today's O/U line a few points higher than it normally would/should be. Expect a little more running, a little more defense and for this total to sneak "under" the number once the final whistle sounds! AAA Sports |
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10-15-22 | Braves v. Phillies +113 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 113 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
10* PHILLIES (ASSASSIN) I had a play on the Phillies yesterday in their 9-1 victory. Momentum is a very real, almost "tangible" factor in sports. And that's definitely the case in the playoffs. I've often found that oddsmakers have a hard time properly quantifying that factor into their process, and that's definitely the case here in my opinion. Charlie Morton finished 9-6 with a 4.34 ERA for the Braves, while Noah Syndergaard was 10-10 with a 3.94 ERA. Syndergaard pitched one scoreless inning in relief in Game 2 in ATL and he's 2-1 with a 3.33 ERA in six career playoff appearances. Morton is 4-0 with a 0.95 ERA in playoff elimination games. However, that was then and this is now. Morton gave up 18 hits and ten runs over his final three regular-season starts. Look for Syndergaard and the Phillies to ride the wave of emotion at home to another series victory! AAA Sports |
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10-15-22 | Kansas v. Oklahoma -7 | Top | 42-52 | Win | 100 | 123 h 23 m | Show |
10* Oklahoma (BIG 12 GOY) Kansas is 5-1 and Oklahoma is 3-3 coming into this Week 7 Big 12 matchup. With a date at Baylor next week, the Jayhawks could be caught "looking ahead" here. Kansas is coming off a 38-31 home loss to TCU and I think will struggle again here after losing starting QB Jalon Daniels to injury in the setback. Oklahoma on the other hand is coming off one of the worst and most humbling losses of all time in its 49-0 setback at home to Texas. Despite that though, the Sooners are still ranked 64th in the country in scoring with 30.8 PPG. They were without starting QB Dillon Gabriel for that one. He'll likely be back for this one, but even if he's not, I think the Sooners can take advantage and rally from last week's embarrassing effort. Nick Evers got a chance finally after his team was down by 40 points, and he looked a lot better than Davis Beville. Yes Oklahoma looked terrible last week, but let's not overreact. It's now time for the Sooners to react and I think they can bounce back and take care of business aginast a Kansas team off its first loss and down to its back up QB; lay the points, the play is Oklahoma! AAA Sports |
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10-14-22 | UTSA -33 v. Florida International | Top | 30-10 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
10* UTSA (ASSASSIN) UTSA is a massive favorite here. It comes to FIU at 4-2, while the Panthers come into this game at 2-3. UTSA most recently comes in off a tight 31-28 home win over Western Kentucky, unable to cover the 6.5 points. The Roadrunners were outscored 14-7 in the final quarter, but they managed to hold on for the victory. Quarterback Frank Harris had 273 yards and one touchdow, while Brenden Brady had 83 rushing yards and a touchdown. Texas San Antonio is 2-1 on the road, and so the big question here is: can the Roadrunners cover this massive spread on the road and on the short week? Florida International could struggle to keep pace with the high-flying visiting side. The Panthers are coming off a 33-12 home loss to UConn as 5.5-point underdogs. The Panthers were down 20-0 at half time and were never able to recover. Quarterback Grayson James had 256 passing yards, but also two interceptions. The lone bright spot was running back Lexington Joseph, who had 103 yards and a touchdown. Now, UTSA did allow 481 yards and 26 first downs to Western Kentucky last weekend, but it posted 486 yards and 30 first downs of its own. Besides, Western Kentucky averages 40.8 points per game, while Florida International averages 16.6; lay the points, the play is UTSA! AAA Sports |
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10-14-22 | Lightning v. Blue Jackets +1.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -164 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
10* Blue Jackets PUCKLINE (BOB) Tampa fell 3-1 at New York in its opener, and I think the Lightning are going to have their hands full again here on the road vs. the hungry Blue Jackets. Columbus enters off a 4-1 loss at Carolina to open its season. Andrei Vasilevskiy made 36 saves in the loss to the Rangers, while Daniil Tarasov made 39 saves in the loss to Carolina. Elvis Merzilikins was sick for the Opener, but he could be back in net for the Jackets here, he finished 27-23-7 with a 3.22 GAA last year for Columbus. Either way, I feel that Tampa is in store for regression this season. This is a big home game opener for the Jackets and in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extra time, I'm going to indeed grab them on the puckline option! AAA Sports |
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10-14-22 | Braves v. Phillies -115 | Top | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
10* NLDS GAME OF YEAR on the Phillies. Philadelphia accomplished what it set out to do in Atlanta, and that was to earn a split. This is Philadelphia's first home game so far during the playoffs, having to win two straight in St. Louis to advance. The Phillies look solid and I say they bounce back after their 3-0 loss in Game 2 (note that the Phillies are 7-2 in their last nine in trying to avenge a shutout road loss against an opponent.) The home side goes with Aaron Nola, who finished 11-13 with a 3.25 ERA this season. He is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA after going seven scoreless vs. the Cards in the Wildcard: "We can't wait for it," Nola said of Game 3. "It's going to be electric. It's something special." The Braves could be going with Charlie Morton, who finished 9-6 with a 4.34 ERA, or Spencer Strider, who finished 11-5 with a 2.67 ERA. Whoever they go with, I give the big nod to a confident Nola at home. In my professional opinion, this is the very definition of "great line value." The play is Philly! AAA Sports |
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10-13-22 | Washington Commanders v. Bears OVER 37.5 | Top | 12-7 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
10* OVER (NON DIV TOY) Yes, these two teams have been terrible. Yes, there have been plenty of "unders" in Prime Time NFL games this year. But I believe that tonight's total is now a bit TOO low. These teams, and these two starting quarterbacks, are dying for a breakout performance. It would be easy to look at their past stats and base our prediction on tonight's game upon those results, but the situation here has shifted the value to the higher number in my opinion. The Bears struggle against good passing teams, and Carson Wentz and the Commanders will be able to move the ball. With the home side having keep pace, we can expect this total to fly "over" the number sooner, rather than later! AAA Sports |
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10-13-22 | Rangers v. Wild -134 | 7-3 | Loss | -134 | 12 h 10 m | Show | |
8* WILD (DESTROYER) The Rangers have a tough game at Winnipeg tomorrow night and I expect them to get caught looking ahead to that one. The Rangers feel super content after beating the Lightning 3-1 on Opening night. Minnesota finished second in its division last year. It was great offensively, and decent defensively. Marc-Andre Fleury went 9-2-0 with a 2.74 GAA for the Wild last year. Minnesota is 6-2 the last 8 in this series and I expect that strong run to continue here on Opening Night. Lay the price, the play is the Wild! AAA Sports |
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10-13-22 | Capitals v. Maple Leafs UNDER 6.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 116 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
10* UNDER (EASTERN CONFERENCE NON-DIVISIONAL TOM) Here's a great situational play we can take advantage of right out of the gate. We don't need to overthink this one at all. Throw out the stats from last year, and throw out the stats from each team's game las tnight. The Capitals lost 5-2 at home to Boston (the total soaring "over" the number of 6), while the Leafs fell 4-3 at Montreal. Each of these team's is favored to be among the best of the best once the season ends, so clearly neither can be happy with they way it performed last night. I expect each to be tired here, and I believe each'll double down on the defensive end. As I say, no need to overthink this one. Fatigue plays a major factor in this one and helps in driving this total "under" the number once the final horn blares! AAA Sports |
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10-13-22 | Temple v. Central Florida OVER 46 | Top | 13-70 | Win | 100 | 83 h 50 m | Show |
10* OVER Temple/UCF (TOW) The UCF Knights are 4-1 and the Temple Owls are 2-3. UCF has the 43rd ranked defense, allowing 347.2 yards per game. UCF has been even better offensively though, averaging 481.8 yards per game on offense. Temple is only averaging 282.8 yards per game while on offense the Owls only average 15 PPG. UCF put up 41 points on SMU at home here last week and despite how well the Owls have played defensively to this point, I think they'll struggle here in this difficult road venue. That said, look for Temple to open things up offensively here as well as it tries to keep pace. Considering all of the above situational information, I definitely feel that Friday's O/U line is low; the play is the "over!" AAA Sports |
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10-13-22 | Mariners v. Astros -147 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
8* ASTROS (SPECIAL) Houston took the first game by a score of 8-7. The Mariners allowed five runs over the 8th and 9th inning to lose by 1. They put in Robbie Ray to close out Game 1 and he served up a three run home run instead. As good as Luis Castillo has been for Seattle this season, and in their Wild Card win over the Jays, I believe he and the visiting side are in over their heads now in this game, and in this series. The Mariners had the Astros on the ropes and would have been in the drivers seat, but the meltdown over the final two innings is going to be a massive mental hurdle which I just don't see this team being able to get over quickly enough. And that's the window of opportunity and momentum that this No. 1 AL leading Houston team needs. All things considered, I believe this line could/should in fact be much larger. I'm grabbing HOUSTON! AAA Sports |
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10-12-22 | Canucks +1.5 v. Oilers | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -150 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
10* Canucks PUCKLINE (PACIFIC DIV GOM) I think the Oilers could be in due for some regression this year. I think the Canucks could take another big step forward this year. In what I see being a very competitive game, one which will likely be decided late, or even in extra time, I'm going to recommend to grab the visitors on the puckline option. Vancouver missed the playoffs last year, finishing fifth in the Pacific Division at 43-31-8. Edmonton wasn't that far ahead in second at 49-27-6. Thatcher Demko finished 32-22-7 with 2.72 GAA for Vancouver last year. Jack Campbell is now in net for Edmonton after coming over from the Leafs. Last year he was 31-9-6 with a 2.64 GAA. The Oilers have a potent offensive attack with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, but the defense was average. These two teams are more evenly matched than most think. I believe Vancouver could win this one outright, but the value here lies on the puckline option! AAA Sports |
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10-12-22 | Blackhawks +335 v. Avalanche | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 34 m | Show | |
8* Blackhawks (DESTROYER) Would I bet on Chicago in a seven game series against the Avalanche? No I would not. Do I think that the Hawks have much more than a "punchers chance" on Opening night to pull off an upset? I absolutely do. This line is much too large, and I think the value has swung the way of the hungry underdog visiting side. The Hawks were 28-42-12 last year. Patrick Kane is back for Chicago and he had 92 points last year. Petr Mrazek is net for Chicago this year and he finished 12-6 with a 3.34 GAA last season. The Avs won the Cup and Mikko Rantanen finished with 92 points. Alexander Georgiev and Darcy Kuemper will be tough to be in net this year for the Avs. Is there a major talent gap between these teams? There sure is. But on Opening night, I like Chicago to come out fired up and pull off the upset here. There is major regression in store for the Avs this season, and it all starts on opening night; the play is Chicago! AAA Sports |
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10-12-22 | Padres v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
10* UNDER (NLDS TOY) Yesterday's total flew "over" the number, but I'm expecting more of a "duel" here on Wednesday. The Padres look to bounce back and hand the ball to Yu Darvish, who is 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA in the playoffs so far. He was 16-8 with a 3.10 ERA in the regular season. Darvish faces his old team with a chip on his shoulder. In four starts against them this year he went 1-2 with a 2.50 ERA spanning 25 innings. The home side counters with Clayton Kershaw, who was 12-3 with a 2.28 ERA in the regular season. Over two starts this year vs. the Friars he went 1-0 with a 0.75 ERA. Look for these two stud starters to battle deep and expect this total to stay well "under" the posted number! AAA Sports |
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10-11-22 | Padres v. Dodgers OVER 7 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 30 h 49 m | Show | |
8* OVER (SUPER TOTAL) I'm expecting some offensive fireworks here to open things up. Well, I think this total will eclipse this very low number anyways. The Padres managed to get by the Mets in three games and now they turn to Mike Clevingers, the fourth man in their rotation. Clevinger was 7-7 with a 4.33 ERA, including just 4-4 with a 5.48 ERA on the road. It's difficult to find any flaws in the Dodgers' Clayton Kershaw, who was 12-3 with a 2.88 ERA this season and who has a plethora of knowledge and experience to draw upon in this game and series. San Diego plated 16 runs vs. the Mets though, and I think they'll be able to get a few here in Game 1 as well. This number is a little low in my estimation, the play is the "over!" AAA Sports |
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10-11-22 | Lightning v. Rangers -109 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 36 h 17 m | Show |
10* RANGERS (GOW) The Bolts were 51-23-8 last year, while the Rangers were 52-24-6. The Lightning made it to the Stanley Cup last season, but then lost to the Avalanche. The Lighting were seventh in goals last year and sixth in goals against. This is a big time revenge game for New York though, which was eliminiated by Tampa in six games in the Eastern Conference final last year. New York was ranked 16th offensively last year and second in goals against. Igor Shesterkin finished 36-13-4 with a 2.07 GAA. Andrei Vasilevskiy had a record of 35-16-4 with a 2.46 GAA for the Lightning, but I still love the home side at this price and in this situation. Look for New York to "even the score" with a solid win at home on Opening Night! AAA Sports |
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10-11-22 | Mariners +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 24 h 4 m | Show |
10* MARINERS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) I think that Logan Gilbert and the Mariners have much more than just a "puncher's chance" in Game 1 of this ALDS. The Wild Card teams have to blow through the top of their rotation, and then face the ace of their respective opponent in Game 1. Fortunately for the Mariners, they took care of business in two games. Sure, they'd rather have Luis Castillo going here in Game 1, but you can't front on Logan Gilbert, who finished 13-6 with a 3.20 ERA this year. Now the good thing for Gilbert and the Mariners here as well, is that he was "lights out" on the road, going 8-1 with a 3.17 ERA. Clearly it won't be cake walk facing Justin Verlander, who was 18-4 with a 1.75 ERA. It's obviously impossible to say anything negative at all about Verlander, so I won't even bother. But the thing here is, I believe that Gilbert can match his veteran counterpart inning for inning to start with, and in a scenario like that, the value definitely swings to this hungry underdog. And with the extra 1.5 runs of insurance, I love how this sets up for the Mariners on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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10-10-22 | Raiders v. Chiefs OVER 51.5 | Top | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
10* Raiders/Chiefs OVER (ASSASSIN). We've had a lot of low-scoring "PRIME TIME" NFL games to open up the season so far, but I'm expecting that trend to end this evening. The Raiders are 1-3 and another loss here to a division rival would essentially be the nail in the coffin for Derek Carr and company. Las Vegas comes in with momentum though as it pulled away for the 32-23 win over Denver last weekend. Overall the Raiders are averaging 24 PPG. The Chiefs are off the 41-31 win over Tampa and average 32.2 PPG. That's second in the league. Neither team has looked great defensively. Look for Carr and Patrick Mahomes to take center stage here in what I expect will be a wide-open and classic "duel" here between these two gun-slingers. All signs point to this total eclipsing the posted number as the game comes down the stretch; the play is the "over!" AAA Sports |
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10-09-22 | Bengals v. Ravens OVER 47.5 | Top | 17-19 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 12 m | Show |
10* OVER Bengals/Ravens (AFC NORTH TOY) Neither of these divisional foes has been in many high-scoring games this year, but I say that changes here and now on Sunday night in Baltimore. In fact, the 2-2 Bengals have seen the total go "under" in all four of their games this season, while the 2-2 Ravens have seen the total go "under" two of their four games, including in its 23-20 loss here at home to Buffalo last week. These are two teams in dire need of a win and I expect the sense of urgency that each will be playing with today, to translate into offensive production on the field finally. The Bengals come in with momentum after wins over the Jets and Dolphins. The Ravens are off the heartbreaking loss to Buffalo. This is a great quarterback matchup and I expect Joe Burrow and LaMar Jackson to domiante the headlines in tomorrow's summaries of this contest. I know that we've seen a lot of lower-scoring games in the prime-tiome football spots, but this one screams "shootout" in my opinion; the play is the over! AAA Sports |
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10-09-22 | Padres v. Mets UNDER 6.5 | Top | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
10* UNDER Padres/Mets (NL TOW) The first two games of this series have flown "over" the posted number, but I expect the finale to be a much tighter, lower-scoring "duel" once it's all said and done. The Padres go with Joe Musgrove, who 10-7 with a 2.93 ERA overall and who was 7-3 with a 3.03 ERA on the road. He'll be opposed by the Mets' Chris Bassitt, who finished 15-9 with a 3.42 ERA overall and who was 6-6 with a 2.96 ERA at home. Funny enough, each has been rocked by their respective opponent in the past. Bassitt is 0-2 with a 6.60 ERA in three career starts vs. San Diego, while Musgrove is 1-5 with a 5.83 ERA in six games vs. New York. But that's a case of that was then, and this is now. These starters enter on top form and I expect them to garner most of the headlines in tomorrow's summaries of this contest; this number is high, the play is the under! AAA Sports |
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10-09-22 | Falcons v. Bucs -8 | Top | 15-21 | Loss | -110 | 149 h 40 m | Show |
10* BUCCANEERS (NFC SOUTH GOY) I had a play on Atlanta last weekend in its upset win over the Browns. So far the Falcons are 4-0 ATS, but I'm expecting a letdown here finally. This is a big time game for Tom Brady and the Bucs. So far Tampa's season has been rocky to start. That's been in part to a few different factors, including key injuries and suspension. Yes the Bucs are coming off the 41-31 loss to the Chiefs, but previous to that the Tampa defense was allowing just nine points per game on the defensive side. Brady and company looked better at the game worn on. I expect Tampa's vaunted defense to return to form here in this important home divisional matchup. Marcus Mariota and the Falcons have exceeded early expectations, but all signs point to a return to mediocrity here. I expect Tampa to lay the hammer down from start to finish in this one and because of that, I'm laying the points; the play is the Buccaneers! AAA Sports |
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10-09-22 | Lions v. Patriots UNDER 46.5 | Top | 0-29 | Win | 100 | 52 h 58 m | Show |
10* UNDER Lions/Pats (NON-CONF TOY) These teams I think surprisingly have played to quite a few higher-scoring "overs" to open the season, but I believe everything points to this non-conference matchup being a very defensive affair. Both teams are in dire need of a victory at 1-3. Detroit is averaging 35 PPG, but allowing 35.3. I don't think that the Lions are as good offensively as their early numbers are showing, and I don't think they're nearly as poor defensively either. They've been involved in some wild games to open the season, but I believe they'll have a much more difficult time moving the ball here vs. this talented Patriots defense. And conversely, the Lions' defense catches a break here facing this vanilla New England offense which will likely be without its starting QB again this week due to an ankle injury. Whoever is under cener for the Pats, I'm expecting a lot of running from Damien Harris, who has 246 rushing yards and three TD's for the Pats. Look for this important non-conference matchup to be a very tight, and ulimtately lower-scoring battle; the play is the under! AAA Sports |
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10-08-22 | Oregon State v. Stanford +7 | Top | 28-27 | Win | 100 | 56 h 2 m | Show |
10* STANFORD (PAC 12 GOM) Oregon State is 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS, while Stanford comes in as the more desperate side at 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS. Oregon State is the perfect opponent to face to try and get untracked, as the Beavers come in with zero momentum on the heels of two straight losses. Most recently they fell 42-16 to Utah on Saturday. Four turnovers didn't help their cause. Stanford comes in off a 45-27 loss to Oregon. The home side will have its opportunities here facing an Oregon State team allowing 27.2 PPG so far. Stanford is averaging 29.5 PPG, while Oregon State averages 33.4. With a home game against 4-1 Washington State next weekend, I think the visiting side gets caught in a TRAP game here. No outright, but expect it to come down to the wire; the play is the Cardinal! AAA Sports |
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10-08-22 | South Carolina +10.5 v. Kentucky | Top | 24-14 | Win | 100 | 131 h 29 m | Show |
10* SOUTH CAROLINA (SEC GOY) Am I calling for an outright upset here? I'm not. I just think that this is a fantastic spot wager, as I believe Kentucky gets caught looking past its lowly opponent today to its home game against Mississippi State next weekend. Kentucky is coming off the tight 22-19 loss at Mississippi to fall to 4-1. Ole Miss is now 5-0. After that heart-breaking setback, and with a much more high-profile game to deal with next weekend, this = "TRAP GAME" for the home side. South Carolina is 3-2 SU, and just 2-3 ATS. It's coming off a 50-10 win over South Carolina State. It plays with revenge here after a 16-10 loss to Kentucky as a 4.5 point dog last year. South Carolina can lay it all on the line here as well with its bye week next weekend. The Gamecocks have the offense to keep pace, averaging 35.6 PPG. Kentucky averages 28.8. I say this is a few too many points to be giving up here. No outright, but much closer than expected, the play is South Carolina! AAA Sports |
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10-08-22 | Kansas State v. Iowa State +2 | 10-9 | Win | 100 | 53 h 20 m | Show | |
9* IOWA STATE (ASSASSIN) While I clearly believe the outright win is in the cards, the official call will be to grab as many points as you can. Iowa State is coming off a crushing loss to Kansas last week and I expect it to take out its frustrations on the Wildcats. The home side is winless in conference play, while K-State is 2-0. The Cyclones will look to crush the Wildcats chances at the Big 12 title with the outright win here. K-State comes in off a satisfying 37-28 home win over Texas Tech. QB Adrien Martinez had 116 passing yards a TD, while also running for 171 yards and three more scores on the ground. RB Deuce Vaughn had 170 yards on 23 carries. They've been decent defensively, allowing 18 PPG so far. But Iowa State's defense ranks Top 15 in almost every category, allowing an average of only 255 yards per game. Overall they concede just 14 PPG. Last week Iowa State's kicker missed three FG's in the 14-11 setback to the Jayhawks. Overall they've averaged 26 PPG and note that the Cyclones are also 6-2 ATS in their last eight following a SU loss. K-State has a great run game, but Iowa State has an elite run stopping defense. Look for the hungrier home side to pull it off here; the play is Iowa State! AAA Sports |
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10-08-22 | Army +17.5 v. Wake Forest | 10-45 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 44 m | Show | |
8* ARMY (SPECIAL) Wake Forest is the No. 15 team in the country. It's coming off a 31-21 win at Florida State as a 6-point underdog. Off that upset victory, I'm expecting the home side to get caught looking past its lowly non-conference opponent to its bye week the following week. Army is just 1-3 SU/ATS and it's off a 31-14 loss at home to Georgia State. I think the Black Knights sneak in under the radar here though and that they catch the Demon Deacons at a "good" time. Or at least we do as bettors here with Army, as I'm not predicting an outright upset or anything. The Knights will keep this game close with their rushing attack that ranks second in the nation with 303 yards per game. QB Sam Hartman is having a breakout season for the Deacons with 15 TD's to just two INT's so far, but I can't see the home side keeping the foot on the gas from start to finish. Will Wake Forest take care of business at home? Of course. But it won't cover this large spread against this motivated Army side looking to pull off an upset; grab the points, the play is the Black Knights! AAA Sports |
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10-08-22 | North Carolina v. Miami-FL -3 | 27-24 | Loss | -120 | 50 h 17 m | Show | |
8* MIAMI (DESTRUCTION) North Carolina is 4-1 after beating the Hokies by a score of 41-10 last weekend. UNC is now tied with Duke for the top spot in the conference, but I'm expecting a step back here in this difficult road venue. Last week Drake Maye had 363 passing yards and three passing TD's, while also running in two more TD's on 73 yards rushing. This is a great situational play here tough as Miami comes in off its bye week from last week due to Hurricane Ian. Miami has had two weeks to absorb a terrible effort in a 45-31 setback to MTSU in Week 4, getting stopped on the 5-yard line twice and committing numerous tunovers. Before last weekend's win, UNC had allowed almost 500 yards per game of offense. There's a bit of a QB controversy for Miami, as Tyler Van Dyke was replaced by Jake Garica at half time in Week 4's loss. This competition though is a good thing for us though. UNC's weakness is on the defensive side and I think the unit has another big letdown here on the road; lay the points, the play is Miami! AAA Sports |
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10-08-22 | Predators v. Sharks OVER 6 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 52 m | Show |
10* OVER (ASSASSIN) The Predators won yesterday's season opener by a score of 4-1. I'm expecting a more competitive battle here in Game 2, but one that flies well "over" the posted number once it's all said and done. Predators' goaltender Juuse Saros was 3-0 with a 0.33 ERA in three matchups vs. the Sharks last year. He then allowed just the one goal yesterday. Saros is almost assuredly out for this one though with backup Kevin Lankinen getting the nod. Lankinen is a fantastic backup. Even if Saros does play though, I expect each team to open things up here after that first awkward contest is behind them. Look for this total to fly "over" the posted number sooner, rather than later! AAA Sports |
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10-08-22 | Rays +102 v. Guardians | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 55 m | Show |
10* RAYS (ASSASSIN) I like Tyler Glasnow and the Rays to bounce back from yesterday's tight 2-1 loss. Tampa's now lost six straight games, but I say that streak of futility finally ends here in the Ray's most important game of the season. Tyler Glasnow was impressive in two starts for Tampa after returning from Tommy John surgery, allowing one run, four hits, two walks and striking out ten over 6 2/3's innings of work. Glasnow is 0-2 with a 2.12 ERA in three career starts vs. the Guardians. The home side counters with Triston McKenzie, who finished 11-1 with a 2.96 ERA this season. He owns a 2.25 ERA in two previous starts vs. Tampa. Experience matters at this moment though and the Rays have a way of defying the metrics. The Guardians may win this series, but I expect it to go to the full three games; the play is Tampa! AAA Sports |
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10-07-22 | Houston +3 v. Memphis | Top | 33-32 | Win | 100 | 79 h 38 m | Show |
10* HOUSTON (AAC GOY) Houston is now 2-3 overall nad 0-1 in the AAC after a tough 27-23 loss to Tulane last Friday. The Cougars gained 383 yards of offense, but they struggled defensively in the second half. Clayton Tune though is a solid QB and I think he'll be a difference-maker in this one. He's already passed for 1,201 yards, nine TD's and just three INT's. Keep your eyes on RB Brandon Campbell as well, who has 243 rushing yards and three TD's. Memphis is 4-1 and 2-0 in AAC play after beating Temple 24-3 last weekend. Memphis gained 331 yards of offense, with QB Seth Hennigan passing for 195 yards a TD. He has 1,246 passing yards, nine TD's and two INT's overall. Both teams have struggle defensively. I see this contest being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last and in a scenario like that, the value swings to the undervalued and very hungry dog in this case; grab the points, the play is Houston! AAA Sports |
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10-07-22 | Phillies -102 v. Cardinals | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 29 h 8 m | Show | |
8* PHILLIES (BLOCKBUSTER) The Cardinals knocked the Phillies out of the Playoffs in Game 5 of the NLDS by a score of 1-0 back in 2011 and Philadelphia hasn't been back to the postseason since. Until now that is. The old saying that "revenge is a dish best served cold" could not be more apt in this three-game series in my opinion. It's all hands on deck for Philadelphia as it tries to pull off the minor upset here on the road. Zach Wheeler finished 12-7 with a 2.82 ERA for the Phillies. He's 3-2 with a 2.65 ERA in six career starts vs. the Cards. Miles Mikolas was going to get the call for the Cards, but now Jose Quintana will. He's 6-7 with a 2.93 ERA. He's 0-1 with a 2.90 ERA in seven career starts vs. Philadelphia. But Philadelphia has all the motivation it needs here and it has the big hitters in the line-up to get the job done. And that's what I expect here in Game 1; the play is Philadelphia! AAA Sports |
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10-07-22 | Rays v. Guardians OVER 6.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 35 m | Show |
10* OVER Rays/Guardians (AL TOW) We have two really good starting pitchers going head-to-head here with Shane McClanahan getting the start for the Rays and Shane Bieber getting the nod for the Guardians. The oddsmakers want us to believe that these starters will battle deep into this one, and then these competent bullpens will take over. Tampa averaged 4.11 RPG, while Cleveland averaged 4.31. I'm not buying into this super low total though, despite the level of talent between these starting pitchers. I expect each of these sides to hit their seasonal offensive average and that means that the correct call in Game 1 is indeed on the "over!" AAA Sports |
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10-06-22 | Colts +3.5 v. Broncos | Top | 12-9 | Win | 100 | 56 h 45 m | Show |
10* COLTS (AFC GOM) At the start of the season, this would have seemed like an awesome Thursday night matchup. However, fans, experts, handicappers and everyone else has been scratching their heads trying to figure out these two teams. Each was rated in the Top 10 to win the Super Bowl before the season started, but now the Colts come in at 1-2-1 and the Broncos are 2-2. The Colts are off the 24-17 home loss to Tennessee, while Denver is off the 32-23 setback at Las Vegas. Russell Wilson looked a bit better last week, but nothing to make us believe that he'll be able to pull away from Matt Ryan and this desperate Colts team. This is a big week for each team, but the Broncos' defense looked terrible last weekend. I think Ryan is going to be able to take complete advantage and while I do absolutely believe an outright win is possible, in the end let's grab the points; the play is Indianapolis! AAA Sports |
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10-05-22 | SMU +3 v. Central Florida | Top | 19-41 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
10* SMU (ASSASSIN) This game was moved to Wednesday due to Hurricane Ian. SMU rolled over its first two opponents, but it's since dropped B2B games to TCU and Maryland. The Mustang's offense is firing on all cylinders led by senior QB Tanner Mordecai, who has thrown for 300 yards in all but one game so far (12:5 TD:INT.) The Knights are 3-1, but their competition has been very weak. The only decent team they faced was Louisville and they lost 20-14. The Knights only managed 3.9 yards per pass against a poor Louisville secondary as well. QB John Rhys Plumlee has averaged just 3.1 yards per pass this season. SMU's offense though has been impressive, even in defeat. Neither team is known for its defense, but I give a big nod to SMU here overall. The outright is possible, but let's grab the points! AAA Sports |
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10-04-22 | Phillies v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 0-10 | Win | 130 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
10* ASTROS RUNLINE (IL GOW) The Phillies clinched their first playoff spot in over ten years with their 3-0 win last night and I'm expecting an immediate letdown here. The Astros have already clinched and have home field advantage until the World Series, but they'll be anxious to get back on track here after last night's loss. I really like Phillies' starter Ranger Suarez, who is 10-6 with a 3.37 ERA, but I really like the Astros' Justin Verlander even more. Verlander is 17-4 with a 1.80 ERA and is the front runner for the AL Cy Young award. This game now means nothing to Philadelphia, but it sure means a lot to Verlander, who will try to cap off his brilliant campaign with one last brilliant performance. I expect Houston to not only win this game, but to do so by a sizeable margin; the play is Houston on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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10-03-22 | Rams v. 49ers OVER 42.5 | Top | 9-24 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
10* OVER (NFC WEST TOY) Both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games this year, but I expect this important early divisional matchup to have some offensive fireworks. LA is 2-1 and it's seen the total go "under" in two of three so far, including in last week's 20-12 victory at Arizona. San Francisco is 1-2 and it's seen the total go "under" in all three of its games, including in last week's 11-10 loss to the Broncos (note though that SF has seen the total go "over" the number in seven of its last ten after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row.) The 49ers can't afford another loss here. Especially to the Rams and especially at home. Both teams have struggled to find consistency in the early going, but here's an opportunity to get back on track. Jimmy Garoppolo returned to action in last week's loss and had 211 passing yards, one TD and one INT for the 49ers. I expect him to be given the "green light" here today. Matt Stafford has so far been quiet for his standards for the Rams to open the season. Overall the Rams are averaging 234 yards per game through the air. But I'm expecting a very competitive, wide open battle, and because of that, we can look for this total to fly "over" the number sooner, rather than later! AAA Sports |
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10-02-22 | Jets +4 v. Steelers | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 149 h 42 m | Show |
10* JETS (AFC GOY) Neither team has looked very good. But I still think the Jets have a legitimate shot at winning this one outright. Both teams are 1-2. The Steelers fell 29-17 at Cleveland last weekend, as QB Mitchell Trubisky has 207 passing yards and two touchdowns. With upcoming games at Buffalo next weekend, fllowed by Tampa, Miami and Philadelphia, the Steelers will have to be super careful to not look past their lowly, but dangerous underdog opponent. The Jets lost 27-12 at home to a desperate Bengals team last week (Cincy was 0-2 at the time, and laid everything on the line to avoid the 0-3 hole.) But previous to that Joe Flacco and the Jets came from behind to beat the Browns by a score of 31-30 as 6.5-point underdogs. These teams are even more evenly matched than that this spread would suggest in my opinion. Grab the points, the play is the J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets! AAA Sports |
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10-02-22 | Browns v. Falcons +1 | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 22 h 13 m | Show | |
8* FALCONS (SUPER-BLOWOUT) Cleveland got the better of Pittsburgh by a score of 29-17 at home on Thursday night Football, but I expect the Browns to take a step back here on the road in this non-conference matchup. Jacoby Brissett had 220 yards passing, but the Browns come to town banged up, including to Myles Garrett and four other defensive starters missed practice this week as well. Captain Anthony Walker Jr. was also lost for the season with injury. Falcons' RB Cordarelle Patterson had 141 rushing yards and a TD in his team's 27-23 win over the Hawks. QB Marcus Mariota had 223 passing yards and a TD as well. The Browns are just 2-5 in their last seven on the road and everything points to a complete collapse here. That said, grab the points; the play is Atlanta AAA Sports |
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10-02-22 | Titans v. Colts -3.5 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 0 m | Show |
10* COLTS (AFC SOUTH GOM) They say that divisional matchups are always the most important and that they almost always mean the most to the home side. The Titans are off their first win of the year, a tougher than expected 24-22 win over the Raiders, but I expect a predictable letdown here on the road. Ryan Tannehill had 264 yards, a TD and an INT in the win. The Colts have been playing slightly better, and then come in off their first win of the year in an impressive 20-17 home win over the Chiefs. QB Matt Ryan had his best performance so far for Indianapolis by going 27 of 37 for 222 yards and two TD's. But it's been the Titans' defense which has really struggled, allowing 28 points and 415.7 yards per game. Jonathan Taylor is going to open things up again for Ryan here at home and take advantage of his porous Titans' defensive front. The strength of the Colts is once again on the defensive end, as they're allowing a total of 322.7 yards and only 20.3 points per game. Finally note that Indy is 5-0 ATS in its last five after posting under 90 rushing yards in its previous game, while Tennessee is a disturbingly poor 7-21 ATS in its last 28 vs. teams with losing home records. The Titans' offense is more one-dimensional than ever and I see a complete lop-sided destruction here. Lay the points, the play is the Colts! AAA Sports |
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10-02-22 | Washington Commanders +3.5 v. Cowboys | 10-25 | Loss | -120 | 20 h 59 m | Show | |
8* WASHINGTON (BLOCKBUSTER) Washington comes to town hungry, looking to avoid a third straight loss. The best part aout the Commanders this year though has arguably been the play of veteran quarterback Carson Wentz. They catch a break here facing this depleted Dallas offense. Cooper Rush has been decent so far, but he's no Dak Prescott. Defensively the Cowboys have been OK as well. It's interesting to note though that Washington is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight when allowing 350 more yards of offense in its previous game. Both teams have plenty of issues, but in a game that I see being decided by whichever of these divisional foes has it hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points; the play is the Commanders AAA Sports |
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10-02-22 | Bills v. Ravens +3.5 | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 20 h 32 m | Show | |
8* RAVENS (SPECIAL) Buffalo is coming off its first loss of the season, falling 21-19 at Miami as a 4-point favorite. Now the Bills are a favorite again on the road and I think the oddsmakers are mistaken here. Josh Allen is playing pretty well, but LaMar Jackson is on fire. Yes, the Ravens blew a big lead to Miami two weeks ago, but Baltimore bounced back huge in last week's potentially dangerous 37-26 win over the Patriots. Let's not read too much into early season offensive and defensive numbers for either side. This one just sets up really well for the home side. I think the Bills are frustrated and a second straight road game as a favorite against a team filled with confidence is just not what the doctor ordered right now. The outright is possible, but my official call will be grab as many points as you can; the play is the Ravens! AAA Sports |
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10-01-22 | Stanford +17 v. Oregon | 27-45 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 34 m | Show | |
8* STANFORD (BAIL-OUT BLOWOUT) Am I calling for a straight-up, outright win here for Stanford as a massive underdog on the road? I am not. But I do think that the hungry Cardinal can comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the large spread they've been afforded in this one. Stanford is just 1-2, most recently falling to No. 18 ranked Washington by a score of 40-22. QB Tanner McKee though was decent, going 17 of 26 for 286 yards, three TD's and an INT. I think he'll be a difference-maker in this one as well. The Ducks are 3-1, but they're off a much tighter than expected 44-41 win at Washington State and a small mental letdown is imminent in my opinion. QB Bo Nix had 428 yards passing, three TD's and an INT for the Ducks last week, but as I said, everything points to McKee keeping pace here. Look for the Ducks to go up early, and then take the foot off the gas in the second half; the play is Stanford! AAA Sports |
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10-01-22 | Colorado +17.5 v. Arizona | 20-43 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 31 m | Show | |
9* COLORADO (ATS BLOOD-BATH) Outright win? I'm not calling for it. That said, I think the 0-4 Buffaloes lay everything on the line here and keep this one more competitive than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Arizona is 2-2 and I expect it to get caught looking past its lowly opponent to its game here at home against Oregon next weekend. The Buffs are struggling on both sides of the ball, but we can expect their QB Owen McCown to move the ball today against a Wildcats' defense that's conceding 34 PPG. Arizona QB Jayden de Laura has eight TD passes to his credit, but he's also been intercepted six times. Look for Colorado to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch; the play is the BUFFS. AAA Sports |
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10-01-22 | Mets v. Braves +1.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
10* BRAVES RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) For a number of different reasons, I believe the home side is well worth the price of admission here, as I'll lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. This is a critical series, as it will determine the NL East winner. I don't think that you can count out the Braves' experience in this moment. Home field advantage is also another big factor working in ATL's favor. These pitchers are essentially a "wash" as well, which definitely swings the value in favor of the home side. Max Scherzer is 11-4 with a 2.13 ERA for the Mets, while Kyle Wright is 20-5 with a 3.18 ERA for the Braves. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to lay the price for the Braves on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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10-01-22 | Rays +1.5 v. Astros | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
8* RAYS RUNLINE (SPECIAL) Yes, the Rays just clinched their fourth straight playoff appearance in yesterday's 7-3 win, but they are still trying to run down home-field advantage in the wild-card round. Even in defeat, the Astros clinched home field advantage throughout the playoffs with the Yankees loss on Friday. I say the "letdown" here doesn't come from the Rays, but rather from the Astros, who previously had won nine straight. Shane McClanahan is 12-7 with a 2.51 ERA for the Rays, while Christian Javier is 10-9 with a 2.65 ERA for the Astros. I expect a tight, competitive battle here, and while I do think an outright upset could happen, the best value in my opinion lies in laying the price for the visitors on the runline option; the play is Tampa on the runline! AAA Sports |
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10-01-22 | South Alabama v. UL-Lafayette +7 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 129 h 22 m | Show |
10* LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE (SUN BELT GOY) I think this is a great spot here for the Cajuns and while I do think "sprinkling" a little on the money line is a good idea, the official call wil be to grab as many points as you can. South Alabama is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS. The one loss was a 32-31 setback at UCLA as a 16-point underdog. In Week 2 the Jaguars were 6-point dogs at CMU, but won outright 38-24. They've been great, but with their "bye week" coming up next weekend, I think the Jags get caught a bit complacent here. 2-2 Louisiana Lafayette does not have that same luxury. It won its first two game handily, before then falling 33-21 to Rice and 21-17 to Louisana Monroe as a 9.5-point favorite. Perhaps the Cajuns got caught looking ahead to this one. Lafayette managed the 20-18 win over USA last year, but it did not come close to covering the 12-point spread. the Cajuns have a game at Marhall afrer this, putting extra importance onto this contest. I believe USA takes the foot off the gas in the second half, and that allows the Cajuns to, at the very least, comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Grab the points, the play is Louisiana Lafayette! AAA Sports |
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09-30-22 | UTSA -4 v. Middle Tennessee State | Top | 45-30 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
10* UTSA (CONF USA GOY) UTSA is 2-2, while MTSU is 3-1. MTSU is off a big 45-31 road upset over then No. 25 Miami Florida and I believe a predictable letdown is in the cards here today. UTSA got hammered 41-20 to Texas, but it bounced back in fine fashion last weekend to destroy Texas Southern by a score of 52-24. The Roadrunners were a ridiculous 42-point favorite in that one. UTSA averages 37 PPG, while allowing 35. QB Frank Harris already has 1,310 passing yards, ten TD's and two INT's. MTSU averages 33.8 PPG, while allowing 25. QB Chase Cunningham has 1,000 yards passing, seven TD's and three INT's. Let's not read too much into MTSU's upset win last weekend against a bad Miami team. This UTSA defense has gone up against some tough competition and catches a break this week. Look for the Roadrunners up-tempo offense to prove to be the difference here (also note that UTSA is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 on the road) and lay the points! AAA Sports |
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09-29-22 | Dolphins v. Bengals -4 | Top | 15-27 | Win | 100 | 37 h 56 m | Show |
10* BENGALS (GOW) Miami is 3-0 SU/ATS, while Cincinnati is 1-2 SU/ATS. The Bengals come in off their first win of the year, a 27-12 victory over the Jets, but they're clearly the more desperate team in this fight. A 1-3 record at this point of the season would still be difficult spot to climb out of. The Fish have been playing great, but I expect a classic letdown here on the short week. More than anything though, this is a great "situational" play, as I expect these Miami players to be caught collectively worrying about stuff back at home in Miami with Hurricane Ian bearing down on the coast. It's a perfect situation for this desperate home side. Look for Joe Burrow and the Bengals to continue to progress, as they catch Tua and the Dolphins at the best moment; lay the points, the play is the Bengals! AAA Sports |
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09-29-22 | Utah State +25 v. BYU | Top | 26-38 | Win | 100 | 36 h 29 m | Show |
10* UTAH STATE (GOW) I think Utah State sneaks in under the radar and I expect it to post a solid cover here with the large spread that it's been afforded. The Aggies are 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS after last week's 34-24 home loss as three-point dogs to UNLV. BYU is 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS. It's coming off a 38-24 win over Wyoming. But with a date at Notre Dame up next, not only is this a "look ahead" spot for the home side, but also a "letdown" position as well. Look ahead + letdown = TRAP! Utah State plays with revenge after falling 34-20 as an 8.5-point dog last year as well. I believe BYU goes up big early, but then takes the foot off the gas in the second half. Grab the points, the play is Utah State! AAA Sports |
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09-29-22 | Phillies v. Cubs OVER 7.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
10* OVER Phillies/Cubs (NL TOY) The Phillies are desperate to snap a four-game slide. They're coming off back-to-back losses here in Chicago, falling 2-1 and 4-2. Suffice it to say I'm expecting some fireworks here this afternoon at the plate finally (note that Philly has in fact seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last 11 in trying to avenge B2B road losses against an opponent.) Ranger Suarez is 10-5 with a 3.38 ERA for Phillies, while Javier Assad is 1-2 with a 4.28 ERA for the Cubs. "We have to get going," Philadelphia slugger Bryce Harper said last night. "We can't keep saying that, right? We have to actually do it. As a team, as a club, we've got to be better." Both starters have been decent, but this is just a case of each being in the wrong place at the wrong time this afternoon. The overall situation points to this total eclipsing the posted number sooner, rather than later; the play is the over! AAA Sports |
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09-28-22 | Diamondbacks +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
10* DIAMONDBACKS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) I had a play on Arizona yesterday on the runline and while that play came up short in the Astros 10-2 victory, I look for the visitors to bounce back here with a much better effor with their "ace" on the mound. Arizona will try to play spoiler here, as a win here tonight will clinch home-field advantage throughout the AL playoffs for the Astros. Justin Verlander is 17-4 with a 1.82 ERA for the Astros, while Zac Gallen is 12-3 with a 2.46 ERA for the Diamondbacks. Each enters on top form and I'm expecting a classic "duel" here into the deep innings. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'll recommend grabbing the visitors on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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09-27-22 | Diamondbacks +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 2-10 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
10* DIAMONDBACKS RUNLINE (IL GOW) The Astros are still looking to post the best record in the American League, but I think they'll have their hands full in this interleague matchup. Houston needs just three more wins to lock up home field advantage, but Zach Davies and the D-Backs will look to postpone those arrangements for a bit longer. Davies is 2-4 with a 4.03 ERA. He's posted 11 straight no-decisions. He's made one start against the Astros though and looked good, conceding two runs off four hits with seven K's over eight innings. Arizon has dropped eight of its last 11, but four of those were one run setbacks. Lance McCullers Jr. is 4-1 with a 2.38 ERA for Houston, but he's just 1-1 with a 6.86 ERA in four career starts vs. Arizona (and a pedestrian 4-4 wit a 3.85 ERA in all interleague contests.) In a game that I see being decided late, or even in extra time, I'm grabbing the visitors on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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09-26-22 | Cowboys v. Giants -114 | Top | 23-16 | Loss | -114 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
10* GIANTS MONEYLINE FIRST HALF. Dallas is 1-1 SU/ATS and the Giants are 2-0 SU/ATS. Clearly, this is an important early season divisional matchup here, as the winner will be trying to catch the 3-0 Eagles. Without Dak Prescott for a second straight game though, and now on the road, I think that Cooper Rush will struggle. Ezekiel Elliot only had 53 yards rushing in the win over the toothless Bengals last week. Overall Dallas is averaging just 11.5 PPG, while allowing 18.5. Daniel Jones and the Giants are averaging 20 PPG, and allowing 18. Jones has benefited from the lay of RB Saquon Barkley, who had 72 yards rushing last week. Yes, the Dallas defense has looked good so far, but that was at home. This Giants team is confident and I expect Jones and company to have something up their sleeves in the FIRST HALF (Giants First Half). AAA Sports |
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09-25-22 | 49ers v. Broncos +1.5 | Top | 10-11 | Win | 100 | 132 h 38 m | Show |
10* BRONCOS (NON-CONF GOY) The 49ers looked out of sorts in Week 1 in their 19-10 setback to the Bears. That was a difficult game, as the field was under a few inches of water. San Francisco looked better at home against Seattle though, as I had the 49ers as my NFC West Game Of The Year in their 27-7 victory. Trey Lance got injured and Jimmy Garropolo threw for 154 yards and TD. The defense looked OK, but it's still really hard to get a read on the unit. The Bears game was a "weird" one because of all the rain, and Seattle is just a poor team. The Hawks did beat the Broncos in Week 1, but Denver bounced back with a less than convincing 16-9 loss at home here over Houston. The oddsmakers have been WAY off setting their lines for the Broncos so far this year. Anyone that thought Russell Wilson could throw a switch and have instant chemistry with his offense is pretty ridiculous in my estimation. That said, after three games under his belt, and his first win, Wilson will be feeling much more comfortable. And now I think the books have once again mismanaged this line for the Broncos in Week 3. San Francisco is getting much too much respect here in my estimation. Garopolo has plenty of experience, but this will be his first start of the season. And it comes on the road in a difficult venue against a team dying for a break out performance. This is the stage that Wilson has been waiting for, and I'm expecting him to deliver; the play is the Broncos! AAA Sports |
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09-25-22 | Chiefs v. Colts +5.5 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 20 h 4 m | Show | |
8* COLTS (SUPER BLOWOUT) With their backs against the wall, the Indianapolis Colts will fight tooth and nail here to try and avoid the dreaded 0-3 hole. I wonder if Russell Wilson and Matt Ryan are glad they left their former teams for "greener pastures?" It's been a grind for both, but arguably much more so for Ryan and the 0-1-1 Colts (note that only 2.5% of teams that start 0-3 ever even make it to the playoffs.) The one thing going for the Colts this season? They're in a downright terrible division, with Tennessee 0-2, Houston with the identical 0-1-1 record and Jacksonville leading the way at 1-1-0. Kansas City has a HIGH PROFILE date at Tampa Bay next week, and I believe it'll get caught "looking ahead." I expect Ryan the Colts to dig deep here and, at the very least, keep this one tight enough to earn the comfortable cover; the play is Indy AAA Sports |
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09-25-22 | Bills v. Dolphins +5.5 | 19-21 | Win | 100 | 20 h 47 m | Show | |
8* DOLPHINS (SPECIAL) I think an outright win could be in the cards here. That said, in the end I'm going to grab the points. Both teams are 2-0, and each has looked impressive. This is now the start of a really tough stretch for the Bills, with a game at Baltimore next week, followed by Pittsburgh, at Kansas City and Green Bay. Miami has a quick turn around to play on Thursday night, but a date vs. the 0-2 Bengals now isn't quite as important. Miami plays with revenge here after a 26-11 to the Bills last Halloween. Miami has the offense to easily keep pace, and I believe its defense rebounds from last week's shaky performance. As I said off the top, the outright is possible, but the official call here will be to grab as many points as you can; the play is the Dolphins! AAA Sports |
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09-25-22 | Lions v. Vikings -6 | 24-28 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 10 m | Show | |
8* VIKINGS (BLOOD-BATH) The Lions have been "sexy" underdogs so far over the first two weeks, but I think some regression will be in order here against this now desperate Vikings team that's looking to bounce back from a poor 24-7 effort in Philadelphia last weekend. Previous to that though Minnesota looked dominating in its 23-7 home win over the Packers. So which Vikings team can we expect here? I say the same one that we saw in Week 1. Detroit came up just short in its Week 1 38-35 home setback to Philly, but then it bounced back with the 36-37 home win over Washington in Week 2. Now hitting the road for the first time, I'm predicting a step back for the Lions this week. Look for the hungry Vikings to pull away for the comfortable win and cover; lay the points! AAA Sports |
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09-25-22 | Bengals v. Jets +6 | 27-12 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 25 m | Show | |
8* JETS (SPREAD-BEATER) The Bengals made it all the way to the Super Bowl last year, but they're now 0-2 SU/ATS this season. The Jets are 1-1 SU/ATS, and coming off an epic 31-30 road win over the Browns. I think that Bengals' QB Joe Burrow is likely the best player on the field of play today, but I don't think his team is. Especially such a big favorite on the road. I think this line should be more like -2.5. Giving this one the good old "eye test" here in Week 3. I actually think an outright victory is VERY possible, but in the end, let's grab the points; the play is the Jets! AAA Sports |
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09-24-22 | Stanford +13 v. Washington | Top | 22-40 | Loss | -110 | 111 h 37 m | Show |
10* STANFORD (PAC 12 GOY) Washington is 3-0 SU/ATS, but with a date against UCLA next weekend (also 3-0 SU/ATS currently), I think this is a "TRAP" game for the home side. Stanford is 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS. It's coming off a 41-28 loss to USC. Tanner McKee had 220 yards passing and a TD. The Cardinal also rushed for 221 yards. So far Stanford is averaging 34.5 PPG, while allowing 25.5. The Huskies upset Michigan State in their last game by a score of 39-23, on the road no less. As I said, with a date against UCLA up next, not only does this set up as a "letdown" spot, but also a "lookahead" position. Add those two things together and you get "trap" game. Washington has so far averaged 45.3 PPG, while allowing 18. Clearly, no outright, but because of all these situational factors working in favor of Stanford here (including in trying to avenge last year's loss), the play in this one is indeed on Stanford! AAA Sports |
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09-24-22 | Boston College +17.5 v. Florida State | Top | 14-44 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 15 m | Show |
10* BOSTON COLLEGE (ACC GOW) Boston College comes in under the radar here in my opinion after starting the season 1-2. Florida State is 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS. But this is a classic "trap" game for the home side with a date vs. 3-0 Wake Forest next week. Last week BC crushed Maine by a score of 38-17. Sure it was just an FCS team, but it was a confidence booster. QB Phil Jurkovec went 25 of 37 for 320 yards and a pair of touchdowns. FSU QB Jordan Travis was 17 of 17 for 157 yards, two TD's and an interception in his team's 35-31 road victory over Louisville last weekend. Both teams have been decent defensively. Listen, I'm not calling for the outright upset here, but this is just WAY too many points to be giving up. Look for BC to comfortably sneak in through the back door and grab the points! AAA Sports |
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09-24-22 | Guardians v. Rangers +1.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -155 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
9* RANGERS RUNLINE (HAMMER BEATDOWN) I think Glenn Otto and the Rangers have much more than just a "punchers chance" in this one. Texas had won two straight over the Angels, before a 6-3 setback here in the opener of this one. And after five straight victories, I expect a small letdown here finally from the visiting side. The Guardians let their guard down here after moving eight games ahead of the White Sox in the AL Central. Cal Quantrill is 13-5 with a 3.56 ERA for the Guardians, while Otto is 6-9 with a 4.88 ERA for the Rangers. With the majority of the public money on Cleveland, I'm going contrarian here. That said, the value on the runline option is just too good to turn down. In a contest that I see being extremely competitive, I'm grabbing the home side on the runline AAA Sports |
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09-24-22 | Astros v. Orioles +1.5 | Top | 11-10 | Win | 102 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
10* ORIOLES RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) Baltimore won't be rolling over here. It's in the hunt for a playoff wildcard. It comes in on top form as well, winning three straight. That includes the firt two games of this series, winning 2-0 and 6-0. Sure the Astros would like to get back into the win column, but this is a crucial series for the home side. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to grab the hungry Orioles on the runline option. The Orioles have also used just one reliever over the last two games. Mike Baumann is 1-3 with a 4.29 ERA for the Orioles, while Framber Valdez is 16-5 with a 2.57 ERA for the Astros. I expect another great performance from the Orioles' pitching staff and while I do think another outright is possible, my official call is to grab Baltimore on the runline! AAA Sports |
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09-24-22 | Northern Illinois +26.5 v. Kentucky | 23-31 | Win | 100 | 32 h 27 m | Show | |
8* NORTHERN ILLINOIS (SPECIAL) The bottom line here is that I believe that this one sets up as a classic "letdown/lookahead" spot for the home side. Letdown + lookahead = TRAP GAME. Kentucky is 3-0 SU/ATS, but with conference play starting next week vs. South Carolina, I think the Wildcats will go up big early, and then take the foot off the gas in the sceond half. NIU is 1-2 SU/ATS. The Huskies start league play next week as well. I expect NIU veteran QB Rocky Lombardi to move the ball in the second half. Kentucky has some playmakers on defense, but the offense hasn't been that impressive. This is just WAY too many points to be giving up, as the oddsmakers try to catch the public money. No outright, but closer than expected; the play is Northern Illinois! AAA Sports |
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09-23-22 | Mets v. A's +1.5 | Top | 9-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
10* A'S RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) I like the A's to, at the very least, keep this one close enough to earn the solid ATS cover on the runline option. The Mets had their five-game win streak come to an end in a 6-0 loss at Milwaukee in their most recent action, while Oakland is coming off a 9-5 loss at Seattle last night. The Mets see Chiss Bassitt toe the slab, and he's 14-8 with a 3.32 ERA, while Cole Irvin, who is 9-11 with a 3.79 ERA, counters for the the A's. Bassitt has been great f late, but I think he'll struggle against his former team here. The A's have still won three of their last five. Irvin has a chance, with a victory today, to match his career-best for wins in a season, so he has plenty of motivation here today a well. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm grabbin the home side on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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09-23-22 | Boise State v. UTEP +16 | Top | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 31 h 29 m | Show |
10* UTEP (ASSASSIN) Boise State is 2-1 straight up, but 0-2-1 ATS. UTEP is only 1-3 SU, but 0-4 ATS. Neither team has been good for bettors this season, but here's one where I think that the home side is favored. Boise State is on a two-game win skein, but with a divisional matchup with SDSU at home, followed by Fresno State, this sets up as a classic "trap" game for the Broncos. The Boise State offense has some issues, as OL Mason Randolph and TE Riley Smith are both questionable with injuries, while wide receiver Austin Bolt (leg) is out for the year. The Miners admittedly have issues on both sides of the ball, but they forutnately catch the Broncos at an ideal time. I think the home side plays with passion here, and while I'll stop short in calling for an outright, I expect a "rocking chair" cover with all these points; the play is UTEP! AAA Sports |
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09-23-22 | Tigers +1.5 v. White Sox | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
8* TIGERS RUNLINE (DESTRUCTION) Detroit comes to Chicago after losing two of three at Baltimore, while Chicago enters having just been swept at home by Cleveland in three straight. The Tigers will look to keep playing spoiler here and in a contest that I envision being decided late, or even in extra time, I'm going to grab the visitors on the runline option. Detroit goes with Eduardo Rodriguez, who signed a massive off-season contract and with the Tigers and who is 3-5 with a 4.35 ERA. He'll be opposed by Lucas Giolito, who is a poor 10-9 with a ballooned 5.07 ERA. He's a pedestrian 6-6 with a 4.46 ERA in 18 career appearances vs. the Tigers. Rodriguez is 2-0 with a 3.79 ERA in seven appearances vs. the White Sox. I think these guys are much more evenly matched than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe; the play is Detroit on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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09-22-22 | Steelers v. Browns -4.5 | Top | 17-29 | Win | 100 | 35 h 19 m | Show |
10* BROWNS (AFC NORTH GOY) Both teams enter 1-1. The Steelers lost 17-14 at home to the Patriots, while the Browns fell apart in the final moments and allowed Joe Flacco and the Jets to win 31-30. The Browns have been playing well offensively, but their vaunted defense has been poor so far. The Steelers have looked decent defensively, but once again the issue for Mitch Trubisky and Pittsburgh is on the offensive side of the ball. Jacoby Brissett has been decent. Cleveland RB Nick Chubb had two rushing TD's last week. Pittsburgh is averaging 18.5 PPG, and allowing 18.5. Cleveland is averaging 28 PPG, and allowing 27.5. But this Cleveland defense catches a big break facing this poor Pittsburgh offense on the short week. I expect Chubb to dominate here again and for Cleveland's dynamic offense to be just too much for Pittsburgh to handle down the stretch; lay the points, the play is the Browns! AAA Sports |
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09-22-22 | Cardinals +1.5 v. Padres | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
9* Cardinals RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) Two teams jockeying for positioning go head-to-head here on Thursday night in this NL matchup, but after losing three straight, I like the Cardinals to dig deep here and bounce back finally. That includes two straight losses to open this series, falling 5-0 and 1-0. Note that St. Louis is 7-3 in its last ten in trying to avenge back-to-back losses against an opponent. After winning five straight, I think the Padres finally have a letdown here. Joe Musgrove gets the call for the Padres and he's 10-7 with a 3.16 ERA. He'll be going up against the Cards' Jack Flaherty, who is just 0-1 with a 5.09 ERA. Note that St. Louis slugger Albert Pujols, who is stuck on 698 home runs, is 3 for 9 with a homer off Musgrove (Joe's just 2-7 with a 5.53 ERA in ten lifetime starts vs. the Cards.) Flaherty is 1-0 with a 1.10 ERA in 16 1/3 career frames vs. the Friars. This is his fourth start of the season and I expect him to be sharp. While an outright win isn't out of the question, I'm going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance; the play is St. Louis on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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09-22-22 | Twins -125 v. Royals | 1-4 | Loss | -125 | 7 h 58 m | Show | |
8* TWINS (SPECIAL) A great situational play here. The Royals have been relishing playing the role of spoiler of late, but I think the Twins dig deep here finally on Thursday afternoon and break their three-game slide. Minnesota has in fact lost six of its last seven. It's lost two straight here to the Royals, and note that the Twins are 7-2 in their last nine in trying to avenge two or more straight losses against an opponent. Minnesota's playoff hopes are dwindling, as it remains nine games back. The Twins turn to Josh Winder in this spot and he's 4-4 with a 4.17 ERA, while the Royals counter with Jonathan Heasley, who is 3-8 with a 5.09 ERA. Both starter have looked decent at times and struggled in others. The overall situation and the above stats though make the Twins (especially at this price!), the correct call in this matchup Thursday; the play is Minnesota! AAA Sports |
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09-21-22 | Blue Jays v. Phillies -110 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
10* PHILLIES (ASSASSIN) I had the Phillies yesterday and that pick unfortunately came up short in the Jays 18-11 blowout win. Philadelphia comes in super desperate here though to snap its four-game slide, as it looks to get back into the Wildcard hunt. The Phillies haven't been in the playoffs since 2011. The Jays have won three of their last four, but with upcoming series starting at Tampa Bay tomorrow, followed by home series vs. New York and Boston, I expect the visiting side to come in complacent and get caught looking ahead. The Phillies clearly don't have that luxury. The starters are evenly matched. Kevin Gausman (12-10, 3.45 ERA) gets the call for Toronto, while Zach Wheeler (11-7, 3.07) counters for the Phillies. It would be easy to write a convincing argument for either starter to win here. I just think that the oddsmakers are not propertly taking into account all of the other situational factors here. I think the value here is for sure on Philadelphia AAA Sports |
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09-20-22 | Blue Jays v. Phillies +113 | Top | 18-11 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
10* PHILLIES (NON-CONF. GOM) The Jays took two of three from Baltimore over the weekend, but lost the finale 5-4. Toronto has done well on the road this year, but I still don't think it should be favored in this spot. Philadelphia comes in desperate to snap a four-game slide. I think they do that here in this interleague matchup. The Blue Jays hand the ball to Ross Stripling, who is 8-4 with a 2.94 ERA, while the home side counters with Kyle Gibson, who is 10-6 with a 4.45 ERA. Gibson is 5-1 with a 4.14 ERA in ten career starts vs. the Jays, so he'll be feeling confident. Stripling is 2-0 with a 4.08 ERA in nine career appreances vs. the Jays. These guys are evenly matched. Note that Philly is 7-2 in its last nine after three or more straight losses in a row. This one MEANS so much more to Philadelphia and I think it has plenty of different factors working in its favor today. Great value here on Philadelphia! AAA Sports |
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09-19-22 | Mets v. Brewers -105 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
10* BREWERS (GAME OF WEEK) The Brewer are in the hunt for a Wildcard and they catch Max Scherzer at the right time. He's 9-4 with a 2.26 ERA, but he's been out since September 4th with an oblique issue. The veteran has had plenty of succcess against the Brewers, and very quickly he'll be "up to speed," but the door is open here for Corbin Burnes and the home side. Burnes is 10-7 with a 2.96 ERA. He was last year's NL Cy Young winner. In four career starts against the Mets he's 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA. This game MEANS MORE to Milwaukee. I think it'll be decided late, or even in extras, so because of that, I'll recommend laying the short price on the home side in this one! AAA Sports |
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09-19-22 | Titans +10.5 v. Bills | Top | 7-41 | Loss | -130 | 156 h 32 m | Show |
10* TITANS (MNF GOY) Tennessee crumbled down the stretch in Week 1, allowing New York to rally from a 13-point deficit to win 21-20. It's unfortunate for the Titans, as kicker Randy Bullock missed a 47-yard field goal as time wound off the clock. Titans' QB Ryan Tannehill had two TD passes to Dontrell Hilliard. Overall he had 266 yards, while RB Derrick Henry had 82 yards on 21 carries. Buffalo won 31-10 on Opening night over the Rams, but was never really tested. I say let's not overreact to either team's overall performance in Week 1. Bills' QB Josh Allen was once again great, with 297 yards and three TD's, but I expect him to have a much more difficult time moving the ball against Tennessee. Yes the Bills are well-rested, but that doesn't matter here right at the start of the season. If anything, I view it as a detriment to their chemistry. The Titans though have won the last two in this series, with Henry rumbling for 5 TD's. Look for a heavy dose of Henry here today, as the Titans clearly got caught "looking ahead" to this much more high-profile MNF contest last weekend. Tannehill has less weapons to utilize this year, but he's still a Top 10 QB in the league. I expect this one to be much tighter than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe; no outright, but a very comfortable cover here for Tennessee! AAA Sports |
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09-19-22 | Tigers +1.5 v. Orioles | 11-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show | |
8* TIGERS RUNLINE (SPECIAL) The Tigers lost two of three to the White Sox over the weekend, including yesterday's matchup by a score of 11-5. I think the visiting side bounces back here though and gives the Orioles a run for their money. The Orioles have their hopes set on one of the Wildcards, but the Tigers will look to play spoiler here. Baltimore has not been playing well, having won just five of its past 13. Miguel Cabrera has been activated for the Tigers as well, so that's a big boost for Detroit's offense. Tyler Wells is 7-3 with a 3.93 ERA for the Orioles. Baltimore has lost four of his last five trips to the hill. Tyler Alexander counters for Detroit, and he's 3-10 with a 5.35 ERA. Alexander has fared well against Baltimore in two career starts and I think he can match the erratic Wells right now. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'll recommend grabbing the visitors on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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09-18-22 | Dodgers v. Giants +1.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
10* GIANTS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) The Giants had won four of five before the Dodgers came to town. They now play with double revenge after dropping the first two games of this series by score of 5-0 and 7-2. I'm expecting a much more competitive battle here though in the finale of this three-game set. It's an important game for San Francisco, which hits the road for seven straight after this. LA on the other hand gets caught looking ahead to seven straight at home starting tomorrow. I believe these starters to be a "wash." Andrew Heaney is 3-2 with a 2.84 ERA for the Dodgers (sample size is still small), while Alex Cobb is 6-6 with a 3.48 ERA for the Giants. In a situation like that, the value swings here to the undervalued home underdog. And while I do think an outright win is possible, the official call will be to grab the Giants on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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09-18-22 | Bengals v. Cowboys +8 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
9* BAIL-OUT BLOWOUT on the Dallas Cowboys. Everyone and their dogs are expecting the Bengals to roll in here and smash the Cowboys without Dak Prescott in the lineup. Dak played in most of last week's 19-3 loss to Tampa, and he looked pretty inept. Perhaps Cooper Rush is an upgrade? Rush was 7 of 13 for 64 yards last week. RB Ezekial Elliot will be expected to step up and alleviate the pressure. Defensively the Cowboys looked great in defeat though, as the unit had to carry the load all night long. And last week the Bengals looked bad anyways. The Steelers defense looked strong, but the Cowboys I think are even better in that department. Cincinnati will be without WR Tee Higgins as well, which is another blow here for Joe Burrow on the road. I think this will be very tight. In a game that I see coming down to the wire, I'm grabbing the points! AAA Sports |
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09-18-22 | Falcons +11 v. Rams | 27-31 | Win | 100 | 21 h 16 m | Show | |
8* FALCONS (SUPER BLOWOUT) Atlanta lost a tough one by a score of 27-26 to the Saints at home as a six-point underdog. It was an impressive first showing and I believe Marcus Mariota and company can build off that performance. The Rams on the other hand looked pretty out of sort in falling 31-10 at home on Opening night. LA has plenty of issues on both sides of the ball and it all started with the weak performance of Matthew Stafford. He really does have a "feel" about him about following in the footsteps of Joe Flacco after he won the Super Bowl. Atlanta looked good for three quarters, but once again blew a double digit lead in the fourth. Sean McVay's record after a loss is 18-8, including 16-9-1 ATS. However, these numbers are set to fall further here in my opinion. The Rams are 7-11 when favored since 2011 and Atlanta is interestingly 13-3 ATS in its last 16 Week 2 contests. Too many points here. The Falcons showed the ability to play defense last week. Expect this one to come down to the wire. AAA Sports |
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09-18-22 | Seahawks v. 49ers -9 | Top | 7-27 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
10* 49ers (NFC WEST GOY) I think the 49ers will risk life and limb here to secure the victory. I am not going to read too much into their 19-10 loss at Chicago last weekend. That was a weird "rain" game, where they were playing in several inches of water. Seattle on the other hand looks PRIMED for a classic "letdown" here after its upset home win over Russell Wilson and the Broncos. Denver may turn out to be a disaster, we just don't know at this point. It was Wilson's first ever game with his new team, and I'm sure he had jitters. The Hawks risked life and limb last weekend to pull off that upset, but I say they return to Earth here on the road against this tough 49ers defense. Look for San Francisco to send a message early and often and lay the points! AAA Sports |
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09-18-22 | Orioles +1.5 v. Blue Jays | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 44 m | Show | |
8* ORIOLES RUNLINE (SPECIAL) I think the Orioles have a legitimate shot at winning this game outright. However, the runline option at this price is just too good to turn down in the end in my opinion. Toronto has an 8-7 series lead, but Baltimore will be looking to even things out here. The home side sends Alek Manoah (14-7, 2.43 ERA) to the hill, while the visitors counter with Dean Kremer (7-5, 3.34.) Manoah has enjoyed success against the Orioles, while Kremer has struggled against the Jays. But that was then, and this is now. I look for Kremer to step up here and match his counterpart in this important game. The Orioles are 7-3 in their last ten in trying to avenge two straight losses against an opponent as well. The play is Baltimore on the runline! AAA Sports |
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09-18-22 | Dolphins +3.5 v. Ravens | 42-38 | Win | 100 | 23 h 55 m | Show | |
8* DOLPHINS (BLOOD-BATH) Both teams won. Both teams didn't look fantastic. I'd argue though that the Dolphins win at home over the Patriots is more impressive than the Ravens victory over the Jets. Tua Tagovailo had 270 passing yards and a TD, but the Dolphins looks great defensively, holding the Pats to just seven points and forcing three turnovers. The Ravens looked decent defensively, but that was against Joe Flacco and the Jets! Lamar Jackson did have 313 passing yards, three touchdowns and an interception, but he completed just 56 percent of his passes. The Ravens are just 1-4 ATS in their last five after allowing 15 points or less in their last game, while Miami is 5-1 ATS in its last six September games. While I do think the outright win is possible, let's grab the points; the play is the Dolphins! AAA Sports |
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09-18-22 | Washington Commanders +1.5 v. Lions | 27-36 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 1 m | Show | |
8* WASHINGTON (SPECIAL) The Commanders pulled away for the 28-22 home win and cover over the Jaguars last weekend and I think they can keep that positive momentum rolling here. Detroit fought tooth and nail with the Eagles, but fell 38-35, only managing to earn the cover with the six points they were afforded. Carson Wentz finished with 316 passing yards, four TD's and two INT's. Five different Washington receivers had over 40 yards. Jared Goff had 215 passing yards, two touchdowns and an INT in the Lions' Week 1 loss. Goff was decent, but the defense was a disaster. It's the biggest question mark here headed into this game and it's one that I believe that Wentz and the visiting side can take advantage of. The Eagles' secondary is a mess, so let's not read too much into Detroit's production. Washington's defense is a step up here and I think that Wentz is the best QB on the field of play. While the outright win is possible, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can; the play is Washington! AAA Sports |
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09-17-22 | Fresno State v. USC UNDER 72 | Top | 17-45 | Win | 100 | 111 h 10 m | Show |
10* UNDER FRESNO STATE/USC (NON-CONF TOY) USC is 2-0 SU/ATS after smoking Rice 66-14 and Stanford by a score of 41-28. With a date at Oregon State next weekend, followed by the heart of the PAC 12 schedule, I am expect this high-powered Trojans offense to go up early, and then to take the foot off the gas in the second half. Fresno State is 0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS. It fell 35-32 at home to Oregon State last weekend as a 1-point favorite. USC hasn't won at Stanford in almost a decade, so last weekend's victory was an emotional one. Can anyone say letdown spot here?! This season the average total for USC contests is 63.3 points, 7.7 less than the over/under of this particular contest. The over/under for this game is 10.2 points more than the average over/under in Fresno State games this season (60.8 points) as well. I base my selections on many different things, but taking a "situational approach" when it comes to my totals is one of many different tactics that we employ over the course of the season. This one sets up great from a situational stand point, as we believe this O/U line to be a few points too high; the play is the under! AAA Sports |
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09-17-22 | San Diego State +21.5 v. Utah | 7-35 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 1 m | Show | |
8* SDSU (SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION) I'm not calling for the outright obviously, but I do definitely expect Utah to take the foot off the gas in the second half of this one. Both teams are 1-1 SU. SDSU is 0-2 ATS and Utah is 1-1 ATS. The Aztecs lost 38-20 to Arizona in Week 1 and then they beat Idaho State by a score of 38-7, unable to cover the large 34-point spread. But now SDSU is the big underdog in this matchup. Utah lost 29-26 at Florida as a 2.5-point favorite, and then took its frustrations out on Southern Utah in last week's 73-7 destruction. With a game at Arizona State next weekend though and the start of conference action for real, this sets up as a bit of a trap game for the home side. The Aztecs are a run first team. Last week they had 488 total yards. SDSU's defense bounced back after a poor showing in its opener as well. It's difficult to rate Utah quite yet, as it looked pretty pedestrian in the Week 1 loss, and then who knows with last week's blowout victory. Utah though is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following a SU victory of 20 or more points, while SDSU is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 non-conference games and 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 following an ATS loss. Utah will win this game, and avenge last year's loss to SDSU, but I expect it to be much closer than what this large spread would indicate. As I said off the top, no outright upset or anything this year, but expect a battle until the end; the play is SDSU! AAA Sports |
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09-17-22 | Miami-FL v. Texas A&M -6 | 9-17 | Win | 100 | 14 h 23 m | Show | |
8* TEXAS A&M (ATS BLOOD-BATH) Miami has outscored its first two opponents by a score of 100-20. Texas A&M is 1-1 after a shocking loss at home to Appalachian State last weekend. I say the Aggies bounce back here though. They were 18-point or so favorites in that contest! Miami beat Southern Miss in its last outing. Note though that this is the Hurricanes' first road game this season and they went just 2-2 away from friendly confines last year. Tyler VanDyke was a standout last week with 261 yards passing and a TD. A&M did indeed lose 17-14 to App State last week. QB Haynes King only had 97 passing yards, no TD's and no INT's, one week after passing for 364 yards in the season opener. The Aggies though have done very well in this spot, as they're 4-1 ATS in their last five vs. teams with winning records, 15-5 ATS in their last 20 non-conference contests and 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. the ACC. Miami on the other hand is a dismal 1-7 ATS in its last eight following a straight up victory. Look for the home side to pull away for the comfortable win and cover! AAA Sports |
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09-17-22 | Phillies -105 v. Braves | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
10* PHILLIES MONEYLINE (ASSASSIN) Philadelphia will be looking to get back into the winner's circle after two straight losses. It had won five in a row before falling 5-3 to Miami in the finale of a three-game series, before then falling here by a score of 7-2 in the opener of this one. The visitors hand the ball to Aaron Nola, who is 9-11 with a 3.31 ERA and tiny 0.97 WHIP. While just 4-7 on the road, he sports a highly respectabel 2.86 ERA away from friendly confines. He'll be opposed by the volatile Jake Odorizzi, who is 5-5 with a 4.15 ERA this year. He's a pedestrian 2-2 with a 4.54 ERA at home this season. This game simply MEANS MORE to Philadelphia and I think it also clearly has the superior starter on the mound; those factors tip the scales in favor of the Phillies this afternoon! AAA Sports |
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09-17-22 | Orioles +1.5 v. Blue Jays | 3-6 | Loss | -143 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
8* ORIOLES RUNLINE (DESTRUCTION) While I do think an outright upset is very possible, in the end I believe that the runline option offers the better value here. Baltimore lost the opener here 6-3 yesterday, but I think it'll bounce back here on Saturday. The Jays had to use seevn pitchers on Friday night to earn the victory. These teams are now 7-7 in their season series. The home side goes with Jose Berrios, who is 10-5 with a 5.07 ERA, while the visitors counter with Kyle Bradish, who is 3-6 with a 5.01 ERA. Berrios has had more success vs. the Orioles this year than Bradish has vs. the Jays, but these guys are a "wash" for all intents and purposes. I don't really trust either. With the Jays' bullpen tired, I think the door is open for the Orioles here. The play is Baltimore on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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09-16-22 | Mariners v. Angels +1.5 | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show | |
8* ANGELS RUNLINE (SPECIAL) The Angels have lost four in a row, but I think they step up here and play spoiler to the Mariners on Friday night. Seattle has won three of its last four, most recently splitting a two-game series with the Padres. The Mariners are currently tied with Toronto for the top wild card spot. Michael Lorenzen is 6-6 with a 4.70 ERA for the Angels, and while he's had difficulties with the Mariners in the past, note that he's 4-2 with a 2.83 ERA at home this season. Ray has been exceptional after a poor start to his 2022 campaign, entering 12-9 with a 3.56 ERA. But in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I say the correct call is to grab the home side on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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09-16-22 | Florida State v. Louisville +3 | Top | 35-31 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 57 m | Show |
10* LOUISVILLE (ACC GOM) Louisville fell to Syracuse by a score of 31-7 in Week 1, but then it bounced back with a 20-14 victory over UCF as a 5.5-point dog in Week 2. I believe that the home side can keep the momentum rolling here in this important early Conference matchup. FSU comes to town at 2-0 SU, beating Duquesne 47-7 in Week 1, then holding on for the 24-23 win over LSU as a 4-point dog last weekend. FSU has so far allowed an average of only 15 PPG, but Louisville has conceded just 22.5. The Seminoles have averaged 35.5 PPG in the early going, but those numbers are skewed. Expect Jordan Travis and Treshaun Ward to have a much more difficult time on the road in this conference matchup. Louisville QB Malik Cunningham had 353 yards passing, no TD's and two INT's. Tiyon Evans has 164 rushing hards and two TD's. I think FSU finally has a letdown here, while I expect Cunningham to finally deliver with a big performance in front of the home town crowd; grab the points, the play is Louisville! AAA Sports |
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09-16-22 | Phillies +1.5 v. Braves | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -128 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
10* PHILLIES RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) The Phillies have been playing really well of late. They have won seven of their last ten. They just had their five game win streak snapped in yesterday's 5-3 loss at Miami, but they got caught looking ahead to this series. The Braves haven't been playing particularly well of late, having lost four of their last five, including a 4-1 setback at San Francisco in their most recent action. Max Fried gets the nod for the home side and he's 13-6 with a 2.50 ERA this season. He's 4-3 with a 3.96 ERA in 16 career games against Philadelphia, including 0-0 with a 3.75 ERA in three starts this season. "I feel as confident as ever," interim Phillies manager Rob Thomson assessed after last night's setback. "We're playing good. We're battling. There's a lot of energy in the dugout. Everyone is pulling for each other." Ranger Suarez is 9-5 with a 3.62 ERA for the Phillies. He's 1-2 with a 4.20 ERA in 13 career games vs. the Braves. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to recommend grabbing the visitors on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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09-15-22 | Chargers +4.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 37 h 36 m | Show |
10* CHARGERS (GOW) These teams split a pair of games last year. The Chiefs rallied to win the second game by a score of 34-28, a pivotal moment which could have given the Chargers the lead in the division at the time. Both teams battle for control of the division again after starting the year 1-0. Kansas City though looks ready for a bit of a letdown here in my estimation after their 44-21 thumping of Arizona on the road in Week 1. Patrick Mahomes was once again a standout with three TD's. Justin Herbert and the Chargers faced a much stiffer test in the Raiders, and they prevailed 24-19. Khalil Mack posted 3 QB sacks. Note that 2 of the Chief's 4 losses at home the last 2 years have come at the hands of the Chargers. Mahomes has a sore left wrist as well. Herbert has 7 TD passes at Arrow Head, and no INTs. Both teams have injury concerns. I think that the Chargers' defense will ultimately keep them in this contest. The outright is possible, but the official call will be to grab as many points as you can; the play is LA! AAA Sports |
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09-15-22 | Royals +1.5 v. Twins | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
10* ROYALS RUNLINE (AL Central GOM) I love how this sets up for Daniel Lynch and the Royals, and while I do think an outright victory is possible, in the end I'll recommend that you grab as many points as you can. Minnesota has taken the first two games of this series, but with a four-game series starting at AL Central leading Cleveland tomorrow, I believe the home side gets caught looking ahead to that contest. It's a big time revenge series, as Cleveland swept the Twins in Minnesota in the series previous to this one. It's a great situational play. Dylan Bundy is 8-7 with a 4.68 ERA for Minnesota, while Lynch is 5-10 with a 5.14 ERA for the Royals. I call these guys a "wash." Bundy is 2-2 with a 4.08 ERA in nine career appearances vs. the Royals, while Lynch is 1-2 with a 4.05 ERA in four starts vs. the Twins this season. Minnesota first baseman Luis Arraez's availability questionable heading in, and the Twins may very well elect to sit him out here with Cleveland on deck. The stage is set for an outright upset, but the official call will be to grab the Royals on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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09-15-22 | Phillies v. Marlins +1.5 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show | |
8* MARLINS RUNLINE (DOMINATION) The Phillies have now won five straight after sweeping the Nationals, and then taking the first two games of this series. I believe Philly has a small letdown here finally as it gets caught looking ahead to its series starting at Atlanta tomorrow, followed by the Jays and then another three-game series at home against the Braves. This is a "trap" for Philadelphia. Noah Syndergaard is 9-9 with a 4.09 ERA for the Phillies, while Pablo Lopez is 8-10 with a 4.04 ERA. Syndergaard is 7-3 with a 3.56 ERA at home this year, but just 2-6 with a 5.06 ERA on the road. Lopez is 2-1 with a 3.16 ERA in seven career starts vs. Philadelphia. While I do think the outright is possible, the value here is grabbing the home side on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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09-14-22 | Yankees v. Red Sox +1.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -140 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
10* RED SOX RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) Boston's 2 game win streak came to an end in last night's 7-6 loss here in extra innings to the Yanks. I believe we'll see a similar very tight and competitive affair here on Wednesday as well. The Yanks have won 3 straight and I expect some complacency here. Brayan Bello is 1-5 with a with a 5.79 ERA overall this year for the Red Sox, but he's thrown into the 6th inning in his past 2 starts and he owns a 3.55 ERA over his last six outings. Note that 14 Red Sox/Yankees games this year have been decided by one run! Nestor Cortes Jr. is 9-4 with a 2.73 ERA for the Yanks. He faced the Red Sox on July 8th and was shelled for 4 runs over 3 innigns off 8 hits. An outright upset is possible, but the official call will be to grab the 1.5 runs of insurance! AAA Sports |
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09-13-22 | Astros v. Tigers +1.5 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
10* AL GOY Tigers RUNLINE. Houston has won 7 of its last 10, but after yesterday's 7-0 win here, I believe it'll have its hands full on Tuesday. Detroit has lost 6 of its last 10 and been shutout in 2 straight (the Tigers though are 7-3 in their L10 in trying to avenge a shutout home loss against an opponent.) I believe these starters are much more evenly matched than what Las Vegas is trying to lead us to believe. Houston goes with Hunter Brown (1-0, 0.00 ERA), who looked great in his MLB debut against the Rangers on Sept. 5th, allowing three hits over six scoreless. I believe regression is now in order here in his second start. And I like Drew Hutchinson here, who is 2-7 with a 4.08 ERA. He's 1-1 with a 5.71 ERA in three starts vs. the Astros, but I expect him to, at the very least, match his counterpart inning for inning. The outright is possible, but in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm grabbing Detroit on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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09-12-22 | Broncos v. Seahawks +7 | Top | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
10* ASSASSIN ON SEATTLE Wilson's not the only player in this game. The Seahawks have a lot of pride and they are a well-coached organization. The Broncos were 7-10 last year, same record as Seattle. Winning on the road isn't easy and this is never an easy place to play. Seattle has a veteran QB in Smith: "The reality is it's just step one," Smith said. "I've got to make sure that I'm ready to go out there, win and play 17 games and more. ... I'm grateful. I'm thankful. I'm forever indebted to the Seattle Seahawks organization. But it's time to get to work." Coach Carroll says: "I'm really excited about this team. I love the makeup. I love the way that they've come together from way back when. I love the leadership. I love the speed. I love our style in all aspects. And now we need to go out and show it and live up to that. My expectations are very high." Since they met in SB, these teams have played two close games. This will be another. Take the points. AAA Sports |