|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|12-04-23||San Jose State v. North Dakota State -2.5||78-83||Win||100||10 h 6 m||Show|
15* CBB Monday Night BLOWOUT on North Dakota State -2.5
I love the spot for North Dakota State tonight. They want revenge from a 78-65 road loss at San Jose State in their last game on November 27th. They have been thinking about that game for a week and have had the last six days off to rest and prepare to beat the Spartans in the rematch at home this time around.
San Jose State doesn't have that same luxury. They have actually played two road games since that home win over North Dakota State. The Spartans lost at Cal Poly outright as 9-point favorites on November 29th, lost by 17 at Montana as 3-point dogs on November 2nd, and now they have just one day to get ready for San Jose State. They will be playing in their 4th different city in 8 days and are running on fumes right now. They won't have much left in the tank for the Bison.
North Dakota State has played a road-heavy schedule this season with six of their first eight games away from home. They did beat Montana 78-69 as 8.5-point road dogs, which is the same team that just beat San Jose State by 17. In their two home games they rolled to 27 and 29-point victories. I think they roll again tonight given the revenge factor and the massive rest and preparation advantage. Bet North Dakota State Monday.
|12-04-23||Celtics v. Pacers OVER 238||Top||112-122||Loss||-110||35 h 32 m||Show|
20* Celtics/Pacers TNT No-Brainer on OVER 238
The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team. They are 16-2 OVER in all games this season. They are scoring 128.8 points per game and allowing 125.9 points per game. They rank 1st in pace, 1st in offensive rating and 29th in defensive rating.
The Boston Celtics are more of an OVER team this season. They rank 9th in offensive rating and are scoring 116.7 points per game on 47.3% shooting. They hung 155 points on the Pacers in their lone meeting with them this season in a 155-104 win that saw 259 combined points. I think this rematch will be a lot closer, but it will also sail OVER this 238-point total.
Indiana games have seen at least 237 combined points in 16 of their 18 games this season. Both Kristaps Porzingis and Tyrese Haliburton sat out their last game for their respective teams. I think that was caution more than anything, and both will likely play tonight. But it won't matter either way I like the OVER. The Pacers won 144-129 at Miami without Haliburton and the Celtics won 125-119 at home against the 76ers without Porzingis.
Indiana is 13-0 OVER when revenging a loss this season. The Pacers are 20-2 OVER in their last 22 games vs. good rebounding teams that outrebound their opponents by 3-plus boards per game. Indiana is 10-1 OVER in its last 11 games vs. teams that win more than 70% of their games. Bet the OVER in this game Monday.
|12-03-23||Murray State v. Illinois State -1.5||72-76||Win||100||5 h 46 m||Show|
15* CBB Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Illinois State -1.5
It's time to 'sell high' on Murray State off their upset home win over Bradly as 3.5-point dogs. Bradley was looking ahead to their game against Indiana State. Murray State has not been good beating Tennessee Tech by 6 as 12.5-point home favorites, losing to WKU by 5 as 1-point home favorites, losing to App State by 10 as 2.5-point neutral dogs and losing to UNC-Wilmington by 2 as 5.5-point neutral dogs.
Now Murray State will finally have to play their first true road game this season. Illinois State has only played two home games this season and won both. They also won a true road game at Illinois Chicago outright by 5 as 5.5-point dogs last time out. That was a very impressive win. They upset Long Beach State by 9 as 6.5-point dogs on a neutral as well. I like what I've seen from this team enough to know they will cover as a short home favorite here.
Murray State is 6-16 ATS in its last 22 road games following an ATS win. The Redbirds are the way better defensive team holding opponent 9.1 points per game below their season averages this year. Murray State only holds opponents to 1.1 points per game below their season averages. Bet Illinois State Sunday.
|12-03-23||Clemson v. Pittsburgh -1.5||79-70||Loss||-110||4 h 54 m||Show|
15* Clemson/Pittsburgh ACC ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh -1.5
The Clemson Tigers are in a massive letdown spot today. They are coming off a 85-77 upset road win as 8-point underdogs at Alabama on November 28th. Now I expect them to fall flat on their faces at Pittsburgh this afternoon.
Meanwhile, the Panthers will be highly motivated for a victory after getting upset by Missouri at home as 7-point favorites last time out. So this is also a 'buy low' spot on the Panthers off an upset loss, and a 'sell high' spot on the Tigers off an upset win.
Clemson is 7-18 ATS in its lat 25 road games following a road win. Brad Brownell is 2-9 ATS in road games off a road win as the coach of Clemson. Pittsburgh is 29-12 ATS in its last 41 games overall. The Panthers are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 home games. Jeff Capel is 18-7 ATS vs. top-level teams that win more than 80% of their games as the coach of Pittsburgh. The Panthers will hand the Tigers their first loss of the season today. Bet Pittsburgh Sunday.
|12-02-23||Blazers +2 v. Jazz||Top||113-118||Loss||-110||11 h 10 m||Show|
20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Portland Trail Blazers +2
The Portland Trail Blazers got two key guards back from injury in Malcolm Brogdon and Scoot Henderson. It's no surprise to me that they have been playing well since, and they have been an undervalued commodity in recent games due to their poor start to the season with all these injuries.
Indeed, the Blazers have gone 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. They beat Utah 121-105 as 3-point home dogs, only lost 102-108 at Milwaukee as 13-point dogs after blowing a double-digit 4th quarter lead, won outright at Indiana 114-110 as 12-point dogs and won outright at Cleveland 103-95 as 12-point dogs.
The Blazers aren't just covering they are destroying these spreads. They have covered their last four games by a combined 62 points. Now they are somehow underdogs to the Utah Jazz, who are without their two best players in Lauri Markkanen and Jordan Clarkson.
It's no wonder the Jazz are struggling going 2-6 SU in their last eight games overall. It's also no wonder their offense is broken as they have scored 105 or fewer points in five of their last six games overall. They are coming off a 90-101 loss at Minnesota which followed up a 91-105 loss at Memphis.
Utah is 6-18 ATS in its last 24 games as a home favorite of 6 points or less. Wrong team favored here. Bet the Blazers Saturday.
|12-02-23||Pacers +3.5 v. Heat||144-129||Win||100||10 h 46 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Indiana Pacers +3.5
The Indiana Pacers want revenge from their 132-142 loss at Miami on Thursday. They don't have to wait long to get their revenge as they play again here just two days later Saturday. The difference is the Heat will be missing their best defender and arguably their most important player in Bam Adebayo for the rematch.
While the Pacers will be locked in wanting revenge, the Heat will relax a little not being overly excited to try and beat this team again. I think things will come even easier for the Pacers than they did in that first meeting without Adebayo. The Pacers rank 1st in offensive rating this season and 1st in adjusted tempo. Miami doesn't want to try to defend these guys again.
Miami is 14-27 ATS in its last 41 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Indiana) - after scoring 120 points or more against an opponent after a combined score of 255 points or more are 41-11 (78.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Pacers Saturday.
|12-02-23||Pacers v. Heat OVER 240||Top||144-129||Win||100||10 h 40 m||Show|
20* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Pacers/Heat OVER 240
The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team. They are 15-2 OVER in all games this season. They are scoring 127.9 points per game and allowing 125.8 points per game. They rank 1st in pace, 1st in offensive rating and 28th in defensive rating.
The Miami Heat combined for 255 points with Milwaukee and then 274 points with Indiana in their last two home games. We only need 240-plus combined points to cash this OVER in the rematch, which is 34 points less than what they just combined for on Thursday. We'll get 240-plus tonight, especially with Miami's best defender in Bam Adebayo out for the rematch. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.
|12-02-23||Cavs v. Pistons +9.5||110-101||Win||100||9 h 46 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +9.5
The Detroit Pistons not winning a single game in November has made some headlines lately. Their 17-game losing streak dates back to October 30th. With this media attention comes an opportunity for us to 'buy low' on the Pistons. They will be desperate to end this skid tonight.
The Pistons were competitive in their 112-118 loss at New York last time out as 14.5-point underdogs, and they have been more competitive at home than on the road. Asking the Cavaliers to win this game by double-digits on the road to beat us is asking too much.
The Cavaliers are 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS in their last five games overall. They lost by 33 to Miami at home, lost by 6 to the Lakers at home, beat the Raptors by just 3 at home and lost outright to the Blazers by 8 as 12-point home favorites. They certainly aren't playing well enough to warrant being this big of a favorite on the road tonight.
Detroit is as healthy as they have been all season with both Ausar Thompson and Bojan Bogdanovic upgraded to probable tonight. The time is now to 'buy low' on the Pistons. Bet the Pistons Saturday.
|12-02-23||George Mason v. Toledo -3.5||86-77||Loss||-110||7 h 30 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Toledo -3.5
I love the spot for Toledo today. After opening the season with blowout home wins over Detroit 94-60 as 15.5-point favorites and LA-Lafayette 87-78 as 7.5-point favorites, they have been on the road since November 11th against some great teams.
Toledo upset Wright State 78-77 as 2.5-point road dogs, then hung with New Mexico in a 92-84 loss, UC-Irvine in a 77-71 loss and Indiana State in a 76-74 loss all on neutral courts. All four of those teams rank in the Top 120 in the country in KenPom, including the last three 76th or higher. It's safe to say Toledo is going to be highly motivated for a victory when they return home for the first time in three weeks.
While Toledo has played the 47th-toughest schedule in the country, George Mason has faced the 260th. That's a big reason GMU is 6-1 this season and overvalued now as a result. Five of the seven games came at home against Monmouth (231), Austin Peay (272), Cornell (110), East Carolina (209) and NJIT (352). They only beat South Dakota State (124) by 2 on a neutral and were upset by Charlotte (134) by 5 on a neutral. Not only will this be the first true road game for George Mason, but it will also be the best opponent they have faced yet this season. I don't expect it to go well for them.
Toledo is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games as a home favorite or PK and the Rockets have one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the country. The Rockets are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. teams who attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game. Bet Toledo Saturday.
|12-02-23||Warriors v. Clippers -4.5||112-113||Loss||-115||6 h 46 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Los Angeles Clippers -4.5
I love the spot for the Los Angeles Clippers tonight. They will be out for revenge from a 120-114 loss at Golden State on Thursday. Now they get the Warriors at home in the rematch so they don't have to wait long to get their revenge.
The Clippers were at a big disadvantage in that game at Golden State because they were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a shootout 131-117 road win at Sacramento the night before. They didn't have much left in the tank and were still competitive. Now, after having Friday off, I expect a much better effort from them in the rematch.
The Warriors won't be nearly as motivated to beat this team again. Plus, the Warriors are missing two key players in Chris Paul and Gary Payton II, and Andrew Wiggins is questionable. Meanwhile, the Clippers are fully healthy for this one and primed for a big effort.
The Warriors are 20-36 ATS in their last 56 road games. Golden State is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 road games after going over the total in two consecutive games. Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 11-0 SU & 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings, including 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings. Enough said. Bet the Clippers Saturday.
|12-02-23||IUPU Ft Wayne v. Oakland -5||98-77||Loss||-110||2 h 29 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Oakland -5
Oakland is a perfect 8-0 ATS in its eight games this season and remains grossly undervalued. You could tell this team was going to be good when they gave two good Big Ten opponents all they could handle in their first two games of the season.
The Golden Grizzlies only lost by 6 at Ohio State as 19.5-point dogs and by 11 at Illinois as 24-point dogs. They blasted Bowling Green 81-62 in their lone home game this season as 2.5-point favorites. They only lost by 8 to Drake on a neutral as 9-point dogs, upset Loyola-Marymount by 5 as 6-point dogs, upset Marshall by 7 as 2.5-point dogs. They then upset Xavier as 15-point road dogs and avoided the letdown by crushing Detroit by 15 as 6.5-point road favorites.
Now Oakland is back home for only the 2nd time all season. Now they will have no problem getting back motivated to play a conference game against IPFW, who looks like one of their biggest threats to win this conference. However, IPFW's 7-1 start is more fool's gold than anything because they have played such a soft schedule.
Indeed, while Oakland has played the 27th toughest schedule int he country, IPFW has played the 333rd-ranked schedule out of 363 teams. That's the reason they were 7-1 more than anything. In their toughest game this season, they lost 76-60 as 13.5-point dogs at San Francisco. I would argue Oakland is the best team they will have played yet this season, and it won't go well for them. Bet Oakland Saturday.
|12-02-23||Indiana State v. Bradley UNDER 150||85-77||Loss||-110||1 h 29 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Indiana State/Bradley UNDER 150
Indiana State and Bradley are two of the best teams in the Missouri Valley this season. Both are off to 6-1 starts and both play great defense. Bradley will control the tempo playing at home today ranking 270th in adjusted tempo and 78th in adjusted defense. Indiana State ranks 114th in adjusted defense.
The head-to-head history really stood out to me in this one. Bradley and Indiana State have now combined for 147 or fewer points in eight consecutive meetings. That makes for an 8-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 150-point total.
They played three times last year and went for 141, 145 and 119 combined points, so they are very familiar with one another. Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|12-01-23||Purdue v. Northwestern UNDER 138||88-92||Loss||-110||20 h 33 m||Show|
15* Purdue/Northwestern Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 138
Northwestern is a dead nuts UNDER team. They rank 357th out of 363 teams in adjusted tempo and will control the tempo playing at home tonight, which will be played at a snail's pace against Purdue. Northwestern and their opponents have combined for 137 or fewer points in five of their six games this season.
Purdue has played a little faster this season but their offense still runs through big man Zach Edey. It also helps that the Boilermakers are vastly improved defensively this season ranking 5th in the country in adjusted defense. Nothing will come easy for Northwestern in this one.
Purdue and Northwestern have combined for 145 or fewer points in 16 consecutive meetings. Northwestern is 10-2 UNDER in its last 12 home games with a total set of 130 to 139.5. Purdue is 8-0 UNDER in its last eight road games after three straight games forcing 11 or fewer turnovers. The Boilermakers are 68-37 UNDER in their last 105 road games with a total set of 130 to 139.5. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.
|12-01-23||Spurs v. Pelicans OVER 232.5||Top||106-121||Loss||-110||19 h 23 m||Show|
20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Spurs/Pelicans OVER 232.5
The New Orleans Pelicans have gotten healthy and are humming on offense right now. They have scored at least 115 points in eight of their last 10 games overall. They rank 9th in pace this season and like to get up and down.
Now they face another team that likes to get up and down in the San Antonio Spurs. The Spurs rank 4th in pace and 27th in defensive rating. They are a dead nuts OVER team as a result. They just combined for 292 points with the Hawks last night in a 147-145 loss. Now they will be on tired legs and won't be playing much defense tonight.
The OVER is 13-5 in Spurs' 18 games this season. The OVER is 15-4 in Spurs last 19 games vs. division opponents. San Antonio is 16-4 OVER in its last 20 games vs. a marginal winning team (51-60%). Bet the OVER in this game Friday.
|12-01-23||Wizards +11.5 v. Magic||Top||125-130||Win||100||18 h 17 m||Show|
20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Washington Wizards +11.5
The Orlando Magic have been the most profitable team to back in the NBA this season at 13-5 SU & 15-3 ATS. But with that fast start comes lofty expectations that are going to be tough to live up to in the immediate future. It's time to 'sell high' on the Magic tonight.
If the Magic were going to have a letdown, it would be tonight. That's because they just beat this same Washington Wizards team 139-120 as 9.5-point home favorites on Wednesday. How motivated are they going to be to beat this same team again? The answer is not very.
The Wizards will be the more motivated team here for revenge. The Magic aren't going to shoot as well as they did in that first meeting. They shot 60.7% from the floor and an unsustainable 17-of-27 (63%) from 3-point range.
The Wizards have been more competitive on the road than they have been at home this season. In their six road games prior to losing to the Magic, they went 5-1 ATS upsetting Detroit by 19 as 3-point road dogs, only losing by 3 at Milwaukee as 14-point dogs, only losing by 3 at Charlotte as 4-point dogs, only losing by 4 at Toronto as 8-point dogs, only losing by 8 at Brooklyn as 7-point dogs and upsetting Charlotte by 16 as 2.5-point dogs. So the 19-point loss at Orlando was the aberration, and it was only due to the Magic shooting an unsustainable percentage.
Plays on any team (Washington) - off a blowout loss by 15 points or more against an opponent that is off two straight games where both teams scored 115 or more are 55-18 (75.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Wizards Friday.
|12-01-23||Maryland v. Indiana UNDER 137.5||53-65||Win||100||18 h 41 m||Show|
15* Maryland/Indiana Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 137.5
I like looking to back the UNDER in these Big Ten games. Maryland is a dead nuts UNDER team ranking 268th in the country in adjusted tempo, 125th in adjusted offense and 22nd in adjusted defense. Against the three respectable teams Maryland has played, they combined for 97 points with Villanova, 129 with UAB and 125 with Davidson.
Indiana doesn't exactly look to push the tempo too much ranking 135th in that department while ranking 76th in adjusted defense. The Hoosiers could be without their best guard in Xavier Johnson (10.5 PPG), who suffered a hamstring injury against Harvard on November 26th and did not return after playing just 13 minutes. We've seen Indiana go for 140 or fewer combined points in four of their six games this season, and 136 or fewer in three of them.
This has been an UNDER series. The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings with 130, 121, 138, 123 and 118 combined points. They have averaged just 126 combined points per game in those five games, which is 11.5-point less than this 137.5-point total. There's clearly value with the UNDER.
Maryland is 28-14 UNDER in all games over the last two seasons. The UNDER is 10-2 in Maryland's last 12 road games. The UNDER is 9-1 in Maryland's last 10 road games after covering the spread in two of thier last three games. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.
|11-30-23||Jazz v. Wolves UNDER 222||90-101||Win||100||10 h 59 m||Show|
15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Jazz/Timberwolves UNDER 222
This matchup between Utah and Minnesota tonight will be played without the best offensive player for both teams. Utah leading scorer Lauri Markkanen (23.7 PPG) and Minnesota leading scorer Anthony Edwards (26.2 PPG) are both expected to miss this game.
Minnesota is a dead nuts UNDER team as it is even when Edwards was healthy. They rank 1st in the NBA in defensive rating and play at a slower tempo. They rank in the bottom half of the league in offensive rating even with Edwards. Having the twin towers of Gobert and Towns plus a defensive-minded PG in Mike Conley Jr. make them a dead nuts UNDER team.
The Timberwolves have remarkably held four of their last five opponents to 103 points or fewer, which is a great feat in today's NBA. Now they face a Jazz team that has really been struggling offensively without Markkanen, scoring 105 points or fewer in four of their last five games.
The Jazz are 5-0 UNDER in their last five games overall. Minnesota beat Utah 123-95 for just 218 combined points in their first meeting this season back on November 4th. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|11-30-23||Pacers v. Heat OVER 237.5||Top||132-142||Win||100||10 h 36 m||Show|
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pacers/Heat OVER 237.5
The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team. They are 14-2 OVER in all games this season. They are scoring 127.6 points per game and allowing 124.7 points per game. They rank 1st in pace, 1st in offensive rating and 28th in defensive rating.
The Miami Heat just played another dead nuts over team in the Milwaukee Bucks last time out and the result was a 131-124 shootout loss and 255 combined points. It will be more of the same against the Indiana Pacers tonight. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.
|11-30-23||Blazers +12 v. Cavs||103-95||Win||100||9 h 8 m||Show|
15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Portland Trail Blazers +12
The Portland Trail Blazers got two key guards back from injury in Malcolm Brogdon and Scoot Henderson. It's no surprise to me that they have been playing well since, and they have been an undervalued commodity in recent games due to their poor start to the season with all these injuries.
Indeed, the Blazers have gone 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall. They beat Utah 121-105 as 3-point home dogs, only lost 102-108 at Milwaukee as 13-point dogs after blowing a double-digit 4th quarter lead, and won outright at Indiana 114-110 as 12-point dogs. Now they are once again catching too many points against the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight.
The Cavaliers are coming off a 23-point win over the Hawks which has them overvalued. They lost by 33 at home to Miami, were upset by 6 at home by the Lakers and only beat the Raptors by 3 at home in their previous three games. It's not like they are playing well enough right now to warrant being 12-point favorites here. Bet the Blazers Thursday.
|11-30-23||Texas Tech v. Butler -2.5||95-103||Win||100||8 h 8 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Butler -2.5
The Butler Bulldogs are one of the most underrated teams in the country. They have gone 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS this season despite facing a very tough schedule. Their two losses came against two of the best teams in the country in Michigan State and Florida Atlantic on the road. They only lost to FAU by 5 as 5.5-point dogs, and FAU has been blasting everyone else.
Butler handled Penn State 88-78 as a PK on a neutral and Boise State 70-56 as 1.5-point dogs on a neutral in the two games following those two losses to MSU and FAU. Now they get a Texas Tech team that looks down this season based on results.
Texas Tech is 5-1 SU but 2-4 ATS in its six games this season. The Red Raiders only beat Texas A&M Corpus Christi by 9 as 24.5-point home favorites. They lost by 16 to Villanova on a neutral as 3.5-point dogs, and that's a Villanova team that has already been upset twice as double-digit home favorites this season. They only beat a bad Northern Iowa team by 2 as 7-point favorites on a neutral as well.
Texas Tech is 1-16 ATS in its last 17 games vs. Big East opponents. Butler is 7-0 ATS in its last seven November home games. Bet Butler Thursday.
|11-29-23||Clippers -125 v. Kings||Top||131-117||Win||100||13 h 38 m||Show|
20* Clippers/Kings NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles ML -125
I had the Kings on the Money Line last night and was fortunate to cash that ticket. The Kings came back from 24 points down to the Warriors to win 124-123. They put everything they had into that comeback, and now they won't have anything left in the tank for the Los Angeles Clippers tonight.
It is also a letdown spot for the Kings after finally beating their hated rivals in the Warriors after getting knocked out of the playoffs by them in seven games last season, and losing the first two meetings this season to the Warriors. They wanted that win more than anything, and they won't be nearly as motivated to beat the Clippers tonight.
The Clippers will be extra motivated to bounce back from a bad loss to the Nuggets who didn't have Nikola Jokic. They simply thought they could show up and win that game. The Clippers had been playing well previously going 4-1 SU in their previous five games. They will be focused for this one, and they are healthy for pretty much the first time this season right now and a dangerous team when that's the case.
Plays against home underdogs (Sacramento) - off a close home win by 3 points or less in November games are 45-20 (69.2%) ATS since 1996. Plays on road favorites on the money line (LA Clippers) - off an upset loss a a home favorite against an opponent that is off a home win where they scored 110 points or more are 61-20 (75.3%, +31.4 Units) since 1996. Bet the Clippers on the Money Line Wednesday.
|11-29-23||Colorado v. Colorado State -2.5||83-88||Win||100||10 h 29 m||Show|
15* Colorado/Colorado State Rivalry ANNIHILATOR on Colorado State -2.5
Colorado State is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS this season and currently 27th in KenPom as one of the best mid-major teams in the country. All six wins this season have come by 8 points or more, with none being more impressive than their 69-48 win as 9-point dogs on a neutral to Creighton last time out.
Normally this would be a letdown spot for the Rams, but that's simply not the case with hated in-state rival Colorado coming to town. The Rams have lost three consecutive meetings with the Buffaloes including a blowout road loss last season. They want revenge, and they will get it tonight. Colorado State has played the much tougher schedule (129th) than Colorado (251st) as well.
Colorado is 0-3 ATS in its last three games overall with some concerning results. The Buffaloes only beat Richmond by 5 as 9-point favorites on a neutral, lost outright to Florida State by 6 as 6-point favorites, and failed to cover against a rebuilding Iona team in a 17-point home win as 19-point favorites. Their other three wins all came at home against bad teams in Towson, Grambling and Milwaukee. This will be their first true road game of the season.
Colorado is 9-20 ATS in its last 29 non-conference games. The Buffaloes are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games after a win by 10 points or more. Colorado has been one of the worst road teams in the country for several years running. Bet Colorado State Wednesday.
|11-29-23||Bradley -3.5 v. Murray State||Top||72-79||Loss||-110||10 h 33 m||Show|
20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Bradley -3.5
The Bradley Braves are 6-0 SU & 5-0-1 ATS this season despite facing a tough schedule that ranks 149th in the country. They have beaten the likes of Utah State (61st in KenPom), Tulane (99th), Vermont (119th) and UAB (127th). All six wins have come against teams that rank in the Top 166.
Murray State is 2-3 SU & 1-3 ATS this season despite facing the 295th-ranked schedule in the country. They lost to Western Kentucky by 5 as 1-point home favorites, UNC Wilmington as 5.5-point dogs on a neutral, by 10 to Appalachian State by 2.5-point dogs on a neutral and only beat Tennessee Tech by 6 as 12.5-point home favorites in their lone win against a Division 1 team.
Steve Prohm is one of my favorite head coaches to fade, while Brian Wardle is one of my favorite head coaches to back. Prohm is 0-6 ATS in home games following a non-conference game as the coach of Murray State.
Bradley is 21-8 ATS in its last 29 games as a favorite. The Braves are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a bad team that wins 20-40% of their games. This is an absolute mismatch and the Braves should be bigger favorites tonight. Bet Bradley Wednesday.
|11-29-23||Suns -2.5 v. Raptors||105-112||Loss||-115||10 h 50 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Phoenix Suns -2.5
The Phoenix Suns are rolling right now going 7-0 SU in their last seven games overall with all seven wins coming by 3 points or more. Devin Booker is playing at an MVP level, and there's a good chance they get Kevin Durant back from injury tonight.
The Suns come in on two days' rest and will be the fresher team, which is the biggest reason for this play. The Raptors will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a hard-fought 103-115 loss in Brooklyn last night. The Raptors will also be playing their 6th game in 9 days in their 5th different city. They will have nothing left in the tank for the Suns tonight. Bet the Suns Wednesday.
|11-29-23||Cal-Irvine +6 v. Duquesne||62-66||Win||100||9 h 50 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on UC-Irvine +6
UC-Irvine is 6-1 this season and ranked 63rd in KenPom as one of the better mid-major programs in the country. The Anteaters have been very impressive during their current six-game winning streak where they have also gone 5-0 ATS.
They beat USC outright 70-60 as 12.5-point road dogs. They beat Pepperdine by 16 as 5.5-point favorites on a neutral. They beat Toledo by 6 as 1.5-point favorites on a neutral. And they backed it up with a 15-point win over Rice as 8-point favorites on a neutral. Now they are catching 6 points on the road against Duquesne when this line should be much closer to a PK.
Duquesne is 4-2 this season with a win over Cleveland State by 1 as 10-point home favorites, an outright home loss to Princeton as 5.5-point favorites, and a 10-point loss at Nebraska as 6-point dogs. Irvine has played the 68th-ranked schedule in the country while Duquesne has played the 207th.
Irvine is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 November games. Duquesne is 1-8 ATS in its last nine home games after two straight games committing 11 or fewer turnovers. Irvine is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game. The Dukes are 7-22 ATS in their last 29 home games vs. good shooting teams making 48% or better on the season. Bet UC-Irvine Wednesday.
|11-28-23||Warriors v. Kings -119||Top||123-124||Win||100||11 h 15 m||Show|
20* Warriors/Kings TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento ML -119
This is the ultimate revenge spot for the Sacramento Kings tonight. They were knocked out of the playoffs by the Warriors in seven games last season. They are already 0-2 against the Warriors this season, though their 1-point loss at Golden State on November 1st came without De'Aaron Fox. It's safe to say the Kings are going to be max motivated for revenge at home tonight, and I expect them to get the job done.
The Warriors are 2-7 SU in their last nine games overall. They do get Draymond Green back, but I don't think it's going to matter. The Kings will simply want this one more. The Warriors are 19-36 ATS in their last 55 road games dating back to last season. Golden State is 2-10 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 23 or more assists per game this season. Bet the Kings on the Money Line Tuesday.
|11-28-23||Rockets +4.5 v. Mavs||115-121||Loss||-110||10 h 54 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Rockets +4.5
The Houston Rockets are the most undervalued team in the NBA right now. They have gone 8-3 SU and a perfect 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Their only three losses came on the road by 6 at the Clippers, by 1 at the Lakers and by 5 at the Warriors. They have beaten the Nuggets twice, the Lakers and the Kings twice during this run.
The Rockets play team basketball without the superstar names. That's what makes them such an undervalued commodity. The Mavericks have the big names in Doncic and Irving, but not much help outside of them. And Doncic has a banged up thumb right now that he is expected to play through tonight.
The Mavericks are 2-4 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall with their two wins coming over the lowly Wizards and the Lakers by 3 who were tired playing the 2nd of a back-to-back. They lost by 21 at the Pelicans, by 7 at the Bucks, by 16 at home against the Kings and by 19 at the Clippers. They aren't playing well at all right now and don't warrant being 4.5-point favorites here.
Dallas is 24-40 ATS in its last 64 games as a favorite. Bet the Rockets Tuesday.
|11-28-23||Thunder +3.5 v. Wolves||103-106||Win||100||9 h 24 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on Oklahoma City Thunder +3.5
The Oklahoma City Thunder want revenge from a 120-95 loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves in the play-in round of the playoffs last year that ended their season. This is their first shot at revenge this season, and I expect them to make the most of it tonight.
The Thunder are fully healthy right now and are a dangerous team when that's the case. They have gone 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall with their only loss coming by 4 points to the Philadelphia 76ers, who are one of the best teams in the NBA this season. Five of their six wins came by double-digits while the other was a 7-point win at Golden State.
The spot really favors the Thunder not only because of the revenge factor, but also because they are the more rested team playing just their 2nd game in 6 days tonight. The Thunder are 12-4 ATS in all games this season and have been covering machines over the last three seasons. Oklahoma City is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 road games vs. good shooting teams that make 48% or better. Bet the Thunder Tuesday.
|11-28-23||Bulls +14 v. Celtics||Top||97-124||Loss||-110||9 h 0 m||Show|
20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls +14
The Boston Celtics are getting too much respect from the books tonight as massive 14-point favorites over the Chicago Bulls. That's especially the case considering the Celtics will be without Kristaps Porzingis tonight with starting PG Jrue Holiday questionable as well.
The Bulls are undervalued right now after a 5-13 SU & 5-12-1 ATS start this season and this is a good 'buy low' spot on them. They always seem to play the Celtics tough, and there's no doubt they will be up for this game tonight.
Indeed, the Bulls are 8-1 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Celtics with five outright wins as underdogs. Three of their four losses straight up have come by 8 points or less. They will stay within this inflated number again and keep their series dominance going in this head-to-head matchup. Bet the Bulls Tuesday.
|11-28-23||Miami-FL +7.5 v. Kentucky||Top||73-95||Loss||-115||8 h 27 m||Show|
20* Miami/Kentucky ESPN No-Brainer on Miami +7.5
The Miami Hurricanes made the Final 4 last year and brought back three starters from that team. All three are off to good starts with Wooga Poplar averaging a team-high 18.0 points, Norchad Omier averaging 15.8 points and a team-high 9.2 rebounds, and Nijel Pack averaging 16.0 points and 4.0 assists.
Bensley Joseph (11.6 PPG, 4.2 APG, 2.4 SPG) has taken over a starting role this season and is a swiss army knife, doing a little bit of everything for this team. Florida State transfer Matthew Cleveland took the place of NBA draft pick Jordan Miller, and he is filling those massive shoes nicely averaging 16.8 points, 5.2 rebounds and 2.4 assists. This team is absolutely loaded to say the least.
Miami blasted New Jersey Tech 101-60 as 25-point favorites in the opener and then easily handled UCF 88-72 as 9.5-point favorites. They had a letdown against FIU in a non-cover in a 86-80 win, likely looking ahead to the Bahamas Championship Tournament. But they got back to their covering ways, beating Georgia 79-67 as 8-point favorites and topping Kansas State 91-83 as 3-point favorites. Now I expect the Hurricanes to give Kentucky a run for its money tonight.
Kentucky lost 89-84 to Kansas as 7-point underdogs on a neutral in its lone game against a decent opponent this season. They failed to cover as massive home favorites against Texas A&M Community College, Stonehill and St. Joseph's while also beating up on bad New Mexico State and Marshall teams. They needed OT to beat St. Joe's as a 15-point home favorite just two games ago. They are missing some key 7-footers inside right now and are all guard-oriented, which makes this a great matchup for Miami, which has some of the best guards in the country plus Omier inside.
Kentucky is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games after scoring 45 points or more in the first half last game. Miami is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games as a road underdog or PK. The Hurricanes are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 37% or better. The Hurricanes are a veteran team that relishes these challenges on the road in hostile environments. Bet Miami Tuesday.
|11-27-23||Pelicans v. Jazz UNDER 231||112-114||Win||100||11 h 20 m||Show|
15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Pelicans/Jazz UNDER 231
Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games. The Pelicans and Jazz will be meeting in Utah for the 2nd time in 3 days. The Jazz won 105-100 for just 205 combined points in that first meeting with a total set of 227. Now the total is set at 231 and the books are making a mistake not listing this total much lower tonight.
While the Pelicans are without CJ McCollum, the Jazz could be without both Jordan Clarkson and Lauri Markkanen again tonight after they both sat out their last game. Those are their two best offensive weapons, and even if they are without one it will hamper them a lot offensively.
New Orleans is 46-25 UNDER in its last 71 games vs. teams with a losing record, including 11-2 UNDER in its last 13 games vs. terrible teams that are outscored by 6-plus points per game. Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is 220 or higher (New Orleans) - after going under the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, a marginal winning team (51-60%) playing a losing team are 41-14 (74.5%) since 1996. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.
|11-27-23||Lakers v. 76ers UNDER 231.5||94-138||Loss||-110||9 h 20 m||Show|
15* Lakers/76ers NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 231.5
The Los Angeles Lakers and Philadelphia 76ers are two of the rare teams in the NBA today that still prefer to run offense through their centers in Joel Embiid and Anthony Davis. As a result, they both play at slower tempos than average and I think this is a great UNDER bet in a game involving two of the best centers in the game.
These are also two of the better defensive teams in the NBA with the Lakers ranking 9th and the 76ers 13th in defensive rating. The Lakers are just 24th in offensive rating and dealing with a bunch of injuries. LeBron James is questionable, Gabe Vincent is out, Cam Reddish is questionable and Rui Hachimura is out.
Plays on the UNDER in all teams where the total is 230 or higher (Philadelphia) - off a road win, a good team (60-75%) playing a team with a winning record are 75-35 (68.2%) since 1996. The Lakers and 76ers have combined for 227 or fewer points in six of their last eight meetings. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.
|11-27-23||Blazers v. Pacers OVER 241||Top||114-110||Loss||-110||19 h 51 m||Show|
20* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Blazers/Pacers OVER 241
The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team. They are 14-1 OVER in their 15 games this season. They are scoring 128.8 points per game and allowing 125.5 points per game. They rank 1st in pace, 1st in offensive rating and 28th in defensive rating.
The Blazers are not an over team, but the Pacers force teams to play at their pace, especially at home. Plus the Blazers just got both Malcolm Brogdon and Scoot Henderson back from injury and were missing those two key guards for a big chunk of this season. They now have the guards to get up and down with the Pacers. Bet the OVER in this game Monday.
|11-27-23||Oakland +15.5 v. Xavier||78-76||Win||100||9 h 39 m||Show|
15* CBB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Oakland +15.5
What more does Oakland have to do to get some respect from the books? Oakland is 3-3 SU & 6-0 ATS this season against a brutal schedule being listed as underdogs in all six games. They upset Loyola-Marymount 74-69 as 6-point dogs, upset Marshall 78-71 as 2.5-point dogs and crushed Bowling Green 81-62 as 2.5-point favorites.
But more impressive than the wins are actually the three losses. Oakland only lost 79-73 at Ohio State as 19.5-point underdogs, lost 53-64 as 24-point dogs at Illinois and lost 85-77 as 9-point dogs on a neutral to Drake. If they can hang with those three teams, they can certainly hang with Xavier.
Xavier already has two losses this season to Purdue by 12 and to Washington by 3. Three of the four wins were against bottom feeders in Robert Morris (by 4), Jacksonville and Bryant. And now Xavier has a massive game with No. 6 ranked Houston on deck and could easily be looking ahead to that game and overlooking Oakland. Bet Oakland Monday.
|11-26-23||Wolves v. Grizzlies UNDER 218.5||119-97||Win||100||8 h 14 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/Grizzlies UNDER 218.5
Both the Minnesota Timberwolves and Memphis Grizzlies rank in the bottom half of the league in pace. The Grizzlies rank 28th in offensive rating while the Timberwolves rank 3rd in defensive rating. The Grizzlies always get after it defensively, but with all their injuries right now points have been very hard to come by for them.
The Grizzlies were held to 91 points by the Rockets and 89 points by the Suns in their last two games. I think the Timberwolves will hold them below 100 today, which will aid us in cashing this UNDER 218.5 ticket.
The UNDER is 5-1 in the last five meetings with 220 or fewer combined points in five of those six, and 217 or fewer in three of the last four. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|11-26-23||Wolves -6.5 v. Grizzlies||119-97||Win||100||8 h 14 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday Night BLOWOUT on Minnesota Timberwolves -6.5
The Memphis Grizzlies rank 28th in offensive rating while the Minnesota Timberwolves rank 3rd in defensive rating. With all the injuries the Grizzlies are dealing with right now, points have been very hard to come by for them. The Grizzlies were held to 100 points by the Celtics, 91 points by the Rockets and 89 points by the Suns in their last three games to fall to 3-12 SU & 5-10 ATS this season.
The Minnesota Timberwolves are 11-4 SU & 8-5-2 ATS this season and have been one of the more undervalued teams in the NBA. But they are coming off a bad home loss to the Kings, which will have them refocused and not taking the Grizzlies lightly today.
Memphis is 8-25 ATS in its last 33 games as an underdog. Bet the Timberwolves Sunday.
|11-26-23||Blazers +13 v. Bucks||Top||102-108||Win||100||6 h 44 m||Show|
20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Portland Trail Blazers +13
Giannis, Brook Lopez and Damian Lillard combined for 101 points last game and the Bucks still were life and death with one of the worst teams in the NBA in the Washington Wizards in a 131-128 win as 13.5-point home favorites. They lost Kris Middleton to an Achilles injury in that game and he won't play today. They will be life and death with the Blazers again today because they just don't have much help outside of those Big 3.
The Blazers are coming off a 121-105 upset win over the Jazz as 3-point home underdogs. They are getting healthier and playing better. Now they are rested and ready to go after having the last three days off. I expect the Blazers to give a big effort today in this sleepy afternoon game for the Bucks, who won't have their usual home-court advantage due to this early start time.
Plays against favorites (Milwaukee) - after two straight games where both teams scored 115 points or more against an opponent that scored 120 points or more last game are 52-21 (71.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Blazers Sunday.
|11-26-23||Monmouth +6 v. Pennsylvania||Top||61-76||Loss||-110||4 h 54 m||Show|
20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Monmouth +6
Monmouth has been undervalued this season at 4-2 SU & 4-1-1 ATS and the Hawks continue to be undervalued here as 6-point underdogs to the Penn Quakers. Monmouth won outright as a 14.5-point dog at West Virginia earlier this season.
These teams have two common opponents the last two days, and it's easy to see Monmouth is the better team when looking at this results. Monmouth beat Belmont 93-84 and beat Lafayette 63-53. Penn only beat Lafayette 74-72 and lost outright to Belmont 84-79.
But the kicker here is that Penn went to OT against Belmont yesterday and will be the more tired team as a result. Their three best players played 43, 36 and 35 minutes in that OT loss and won't have much left in the tank for Monmouth, which was able to rest its starters late yesterday due to the blowout nature of their game against Lafayette. Nobody played more than 29 minutes for them yesterday.
Monmouth is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games after allowing 60 points or less. Penn is 15-30 ATS in its last 45 home games after a loss by 6 points or less. Plays on road teams (Monmouth) - after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games, in non-conference games between two teams from mid-major conferences are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet Monmouth Sunday.
|11-25-23||Ohio State v. Santa Clara +7.5||86-56||Loss||-110||8 h 31 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Santa Clara +7.5
Santa Clara is absolutely legit this season. The Broncos are off to a 6-0 start this season with two upset wins over Pac-12 teams. They won 89-77 at Stanford as 7.5-point dogs and upset Oregon 88-82 as 5.5-point dogs on a neutral yesterday. I fully expect them to give Ohio State a run for their money tonight.
Ohio State has been very disappointing thus far. The Buckeyes are 4-1 SU but 1-3-1 ATS this season. They only beat Oakland by 6 as 19.5-point home favorites, lost to Texas A&M by 7 as 1.5-point home favorites, pushed in a 24-point win over Merrimack as 24-point favorites and failed to cover in a 17-point win over Western Michigan as 21.5-point home favorites. That's why their upset win over Alabama as 6.5-point dogs yesterday came out of nowhere. But now the Buckeyes are getting too much respect for that win, and this is now a letdown spot for them. Bet Santa Clara Saturday.
|11-25-23||Illinois-Chicago -1 v. George Washington||89-79||Win||100||8 h 31 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Illinois-Chicago -1
Illinois-Chicago has been very impressive this season. The Flames are 4-1 SU & 4-0 ATS this season. They only lost by 11 at Cincinnati as 15-point dogs, upset Loyola-Chicago 72-67 as 11.5-point road dogs and crushed Middle Tennessee 70-40 as 3.5-point dogs yesterday. They will still be fresh for this game today which gives them a big advantage over George Washington.
The Revolutionaries will not be fresh for this one. They just went to double-OT to beat Ohio 99-94 yesterday. Three starters played at least 40 minutes for George Washington yesterday. They won't have much left in the tank for the Flames tonight. Bet Illinois-Chicago Saturday.
|11-25-23||Heat v. Nets -3.5||Top||97-112||Win||100||7 h 58 m||Show|
20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Brooklyn Nets -3.5
I love the spot for the Brooklyn Nets tonight. They will be highly motivated for a victory coming off three consecutive losses. They are also motivated because one of those losses came 122-115 at Miami on November 14th.
The Nets also have a big rest advantage over the Heat tonight. The Nets come in on two days' rest and will be playing just their 3rd game in 10 days. Meanwhile, the Heat will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 98-100 loss at New York last night. This will also be the 9th game in 15 days for the Heat, which is about as tough as it gets in the NBA. Eight of those nine games were on the road so there has been a ton of travel involved.
Jimmy Butler played 36 minutes, Bam Adebaoy 34, Josh Richardson 34 and Kyle Lowry 33 last night. The Heat are already short-handed without Tyler Herro and likely without Duncan Robinson again tonight. I also wouldn't be surprised to see them sit Butler and/or Adebayo tonight given the tough rest spot.
Brooklyn is 17-7 ATS in its last 24 games when revenging a road loss. Miami is 13-29 ATS in its last 42 games vs. a team with a losing record. Bet the Nets Saturday.
|11-24-23||Spurs v. Warriors OVER 234.5||Top||112-118||Loss||-110||11 h 42 m||Show|
20* Spurs/Warriors ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 234.5
The Golden State Warriors are an OVER team when Draymond Green is out of the lineup. They miss his defense. They have gone 4-0 OVER in their last four games overall without Green and tonight will be the 5th game of his 5-game suspension. They have gone for 237, 253, 237 and 238 combined points in their last four games.
The San Antonio Spurs are a dead nuts OVER team when healthy. They are at least respectable on offense, but they are terrible on defense either way. The Spurs rank 4th in pace and 26th in defensive efficiency.
The last two meetings between the Spurs and Warriors have gone OVER the total with 245 and 257 combined points. Plays on the OVER on home teams where the total is 200 or higher (Golden State) - after being beaten by the spread by 54 or more points total in their last 10 games, a marginal losing team (40-49%) playing a losing team are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the OVER in this game Friday.
|11-24-23||Nuggets v. Rockets +3||86-105||Win||100||9 h 42 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Houston Rockets +3
The Houston Rockets are the most underrated team in the NBA right now. They are 7-3 SU & a perfect 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games overall. The three losses all went to the wire and were all on the road losing by 6 at the Clippers, by 1 at the Lakers and by 5 at the Warriors. They are a perfect 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games.
The Rockets are back home where they just crushed Memphis by 20. They will be highly motivated to beat the defending champion Nuggets tonight. The Nuggets just aren't the same without Jamal Murray and have struggled without him in recent seasons. The Nuggets are 3-4 SU but 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall without Murray with the three wins all coming by 4 points or fewer.
Denver is 1-9 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 23 or more assists per game this season. Houston is 10-0 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 23 or more assists per game this season. I fully expect Houston to win this game outright. Bet the Rockets Friday.
|11-24-23||Pistons v. Pacers OVER 247.5||Top||113-136||Win||100||28 h 20 m||Show|
20* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Pistons/Pacers OVER 247.5
The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team. They are 13-1 OVER in their 14 games this season. They are scoring 128.3 points per game and allowing 126.4 points per game. They rank 1st in pace, 1st in offensive efficiency and dead last (30th) in defensive efficiency.
The Pistons don't mind getting up and down either as they rank 11th in pace. They play little defense ranking 21st in defensive efficiency. This one has the makings of a shootout. Bet the OVER in this game Friday.
|11-24-23||Heat v. Knicks -5.5||98-100||Loss||-105||8 h 11 m||Show|
15* Heat/Knicks ESPN ANNIHILATOR on New York -5.5
I love the spot for the New York Knicks tonight. They are rested and ready to go after having the last three days off following a road loss at Minnesota which was their 5th consecutive road game. They needed the rest, and they will far back here on Black Friday with a blowout win over the Miami Heat.
The Heat are getting a lot of respect now after winning nine of their last 10 against a very soft schedule. They are coming off a blowout win at Cleveland, but the Cavaliers were on the 2nd of a back-to-back after beating the 76ers in OT on the road the night before.
The Heat have two key starters questionable to play tonight in Bam Adebayo and Duncan Robinson and may be short-handed. They already lack depth as it is without Tyler Herro. Meanwhile, the Knicks are fully healthy.
New York is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games after scoring 100 points or less last game. Miami is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games after allowing 105 points or less in two consecutive games. Home-court advantage has been big in this series as the home team is 5-0 SU in the last five meetings with four of those five wins coming by 6 points or more. Bet the Knicks Friday.
|11-24-23||Alabama -6 v. Ohio State||Top||81-92||Loss||-110||7 h 50 m||Show|
20* Alabama/Ohio State Emerald Coast Classic No-Brainer on Alabama -6
Alabama is absolutely loaded this season. The Crimson Tide are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS while scoring at least 98 points in every game thus far. They beat Morehead State 105-73 as 22-point favorites, topped a very good Indiana State team 102-80 as 18-point home favorites,crushed South Alabama 102-46 as 20.5-point favorites and covered in a 98-67 win over Mercer as 30.5-point favorites. They have covered their first four spreads by a combined 50 points and remain undervalued here.
Ohio State has been very disappointing thus far and the results lead me to believe they cannot hang with a team the caliber of Alabama. The Buckeyes are 3-1 SU but 0-3-1 ATS this season. They only beat Oakland by 6 as 19.5-point home favorites, lost to Texas A&M by 7 as 1.5-point home favorites, pushed in a 24-point win over Merrimack as 24-point favorites and failed to cover in a 17-point win over Western Michigan as 21.5-point home favorites.
Ohio State is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games after playing two consecutive games as a favorite. Alabama is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 November games. The Crimson Tide are 23-13 ATS in their last 36 games as favorites. Alabama is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. good ball-handling teams that commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game. Nate Oats is 12-2 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 6 to 12 points as the coach of the Crimson Tide. Bet Alabama Friday.
|11-24-23||Texas Tech v. Michigan -2||73-57||Loss||-110||6 h 56 m||Show|
15* Texas Tech/Michigan ESPNU ANNIHILATOR on Michigan -2
The Michigan Wolverines have impressed me this season. They have opened 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS with wins over St. John's on the road and Stanford on a neutral yesterday. They also took a very good Memphis team to the wire in a 4-point loss prior to beating Stanford.
The Texas Tech Red Raiders are clearly down a couple notches this season. They are 4-1 SU but 1-4 ATS with some concerning results. They only beat Texas A&M Corpus Christi by 9 as 24.5-point home favorites. They lost by 16 to Villanova as 3.5-point dogs. They only beat Northern Iowa by 2 as 7-point favorites yesterday. Michigan needs to be favored by more against this squad.
Michigan is 55-33 ATS in its last 88 games as a neutral court favorite or PK. Texas Tech is 46-70 ATS in its last 116 neutral court games. The Red Raiders are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games vs. good rebounding teams outrebounding opponents by 4-plus boards per game. Bet Michigan Friday.
|11-24-23||Suns -7.5 v. Grizzlies||110-89||Win||100||6 h 47 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Night BLOWOUT on Phoenix Suns -7.5
The Memphis Grizzlies are an absolute mess right now with all their injuries. They are 3-11 SU & 5-9 ATS this season. They are without Morant, Smart, Tillman, Kennard, Adams, Clarke, LaRavia and could be without Bane tonight.
The Phoenix Suns are getting healthier and forming some chemistry right now. They are 5-0 in their last five games overall, and I expect them to handle the short-handed Grizzlies tonight.
Memphis is 8-24 ATS in its last 32 games as an underdog. Bet the Suns Friday.
|11-23-23||Seton Hall v. USC -4||63-71||Win||100||17 h 47 m||Show|
15* Seton Hall/USC FS1 ANNIHILATOR on USC -4
The USC Trojans have one of the best backcourt tandems in the country in Boogie Ellis and Isaiah Collier. Ellis is averaging 21.0 points per game while Collier is averaging 21.0 points per game as well.
After beating Kansas State 82-69 as 3-point favorites and then covering against CS-Bakersfield, the Trojans ran into some injuries. Ellis didn't play in their upset loss to UC-Irvine, and Kobe Johnson (15.0 PPG) has missed two games as well. But now both guys are healthy and expected to play in this tournament. There's also a chance the Trojans get the debut of Bronny James, Lebron's son, for this tournament though I'm not expecting it. They don't need him to beat Seton Hall.
While USC has tested themselves already against Kansas State and UC-Irvine, Seton Hall is not prepared for this tournament at all. The Pirates have played the 330th-ranked schedule out of 362 teams. So there's not much you can gather from their 4-0 start against St. Peter's, Farleigh Dickinson, Albany and Wagner. This is a massive step up in class for them, and they will fail.
USC is 14-3 ATS in road games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game. Andy Enfield is 13-4 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 6 points or less or PK as the coach of USC. Bet USC Thursday.
|11-23-23||Michigan State v. Arizona -5||Top||68-74||Win||100||15 h 0 m||Show|
20* Michigan State/Arizona FOX No-Brainer on Arizona -5
The Arizona Wildcats are absolutely loaded this season. They are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS despite being favored by 25 points or more four times, they covered all four. They also upset Duke 78-73 as 5-point road underdogs, handing Duke their first loss at Cameron Indoor since current head coach Jon Scheyer took over for Coach K.
That gives these teams a common opponent as Michigan State lost 74-65 as 4-point underdogs on a neutral court to Duke. I think that's a telling sign of how this game is going to go for the Spartans. If they couldn't have with Duke on a neutral, they're certainly not going to be able to hang with Arizona.
Michigan State was also upset 79-76 as 16.5-point home favorites by James Madison earlier this season. This team has been grossly overvalued since opening as a Top 5 team. They don't have shooting as they are hitting just 26.3% from 3-point range this season. Arizona shoots the 3 at a 41.5% clip to compare.
Plays against underdogs (Michigan State) - off a blowout win by 30 points or more against an opponent that has scored 75 points or more in five consecutive games are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet Arizona Thursday.
|11-22-23||Bradley -4 v. UTEP||63-59||Push||0||12 h 23 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Bradley -4
The Bradley Braves are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS this season against a tough schedule. They went on the road and beat UAB 73-71 as 4.5-point dogs, beat Utah State 72-66 as 5.5-point home favorites and topped Tarleton State 86-63 as 10-point home favorites. They also beat Tulane 80-77 as 1-point favorites and controlled the game throughout as it only became close late.
UTEP is getting too much respect for its 5-0 start against a much softer schedule. The five wins came against McMurray, U of Oklahoma Science and Arts, UC-Santa Barbara, Austin Pey and Cal. Those last two wins against AP and Cal went to the wire. This will be by far their toughest test of the season to date, while Bradley has already faced three teams that are better than UTEP and beat them all.
Bradley is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 games as a favorite. The Braves are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring 80 points or more last game. The Braves are the class of the MVC right alongside Indiana State and Drake. Bet Bradley Wednesday.
|11-22-23||Grizzlies v. Rockets -4.5||91-111||Win||100||11 h 18 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Houston Rockets -4.5
The Houston Rockets are one of the most undervalued teams in the NBA right now. They are 6-3 SU & 9-0 ATS in their last nine games overall with their only losses all coming on the road to three of the best teams in the NBA in the Clippers by 6, the Lakers by 1 and the Warriors by 5.
Now the Rockets are back home where they are 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six home games. They host one of the worst teams in the NBA in the Memphis Grizzlies, who are 3-10 SU & 5-8 ATS this season. The Grizzlies have the worst injury situation in the entire NBA which is the biggest reason for their struggles.
Memphis is 1-18 ATS in its last 19 games as a road underdog of 6 points or less. Bet the Rockets Wednesday.
|11-22-23||Raptors v. Pacers OVER 237.5||Top||132-131||Win||100||12 h 4 m||Show|
20* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Raptors/Pacers OVER 237.5
The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team. They are 12-1 OVER in their 13 games this season scoring 128.1 points per game and allowing 125.9 points per game. They rank 1st in pace, 1st in offensive efficiency and 29th in defensive efficiency. Oddsmakers can't set their totals high enough.
The Toronto Raptors are 3-1 OVER in their last four games overall combining for 240 points with Milwaukee, 255 points with Detroit and 233 points with Orlando. They will be forced to play up-tempo with the Pacers controlling the pace playing at home. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.
|11-22-23||Bucks v. Celtics OVER 235||Top||116-119||Push||0||11 h 48 m||Show|
20* Bucks/Celtics ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 235
Two of the most efficient offensive teams in the NBA square off tonight. The Bucks rank 5th in offensive rating while the Celtics rank 6th. The Bucks also rank 6th in pace but are a poor defensive team ranking 23rd in that category.
Shootouts have been the norm between the Bucks and Celtics in recent meetings and both are even more OVER teams this season. The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with 239, 256 and 257 combined points in those three meetings. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.
|11-22-23||High Point v. Hofstra -5.5||92-97||Loss||-110||10 h 41 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Hofstra -5.5
Hofstra is absolutely loaded this season and it's showing up in this tournament. They beat Buffalo 102-68 as 9.5-point favorites and Wright State 85-76 as 2.5-point favorites the past two days. They have one of the best guard tandems in the country in Thomas (22.0 PPG) and Dubar (19.6 PPG). These guards will lead them to another blowout victory over High Point today.
High Point has had to work much harder for its two victories the past two days beating a rebuilding Iona team 82-68 and then topping Illinois State 74-72 yesterday. This is a big step up in class for them. Keep in mind this team lost to Wofford and Queens prior to this tournament.
Hofstra is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games as a favorite. Hofstra is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games vs. teams that force 12 or fewer turnovers per game. Bet Hofstra Wednesday.
|11-22-23||Indiana State -5.5 v. Pepperdine||Top||90-82||Win||100||10 h 51 m||Show|
20* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana State -5.5
Indiana State is absolutely loaded this season. The Sycamores are 3-1 SU & 2-1 ATS with their lone loss coming on the road at Alabama, which looks like it might be the best team in the country. They beat IUPUI 96-57 as 17.5-point favorites and then Rice 103-88 as 6.5-point favorites yesterday.
Indiana State jumped out to a 55-34 halftime lead on Rice yesterday and was able to coast in the 2nd half to save up for Pepperdine today. No player on Indiana State played more than 29 minutes yesterday, so they are going to be very fresh for Pepperdine.
The Waves are coming off two consecutive blowout losses to UNLV 82-68 as 2.5-point dogs and then UC-Irvine 76-60 as 5.5-point dogs yesterday. Indiana State is better than both of those teams and the class of the MVC right alongside Bradley and Drake. I expect another blowout victory in the Sycamores' favor today.
Indiana State is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games following two consecutive games where they made 10 or more 3-pointers. Pepperdine is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games following a loss by 10 points or more. The Waves are 0-7 ATS in thier last seven road games after scoring 60 points or less. Pepperdine is 0-8 ATS in its last eight road games vs. good offensive teams scoring 77 or more points per game. Bet Indiana State Wednesday.
|11-22-23||Tennessee v. Kansas UNDER 140.5||60-69||Win||100||4 h 26 m||Show|
15* Tennessee/Kansas ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 140.5
Tennessee is a dead nuts UNDER team dating back to last season. The Volunteers rank 1st in the entire country in defensive efficiency this season after ranking 1st last season as well. Nothing comes easy against them, and they play at a slow tempo.
Kansas had nothing come easy yesterday in a 73-59 loss to Marquette. The Jayhawks look like one of the more overrated teams in the country, especially from an offensive standpoint. But the Jayhawks rank 6th in the country in defensive efficiency currently and get after it on that end.
Both teams lost yesterday, so both will be playing with extra intensity on the defensive end to try and get a win. Plus, this is an early 2:30 EST start time and will be a sleepy early afternoon game for two teams not used to playing this early.
Tennessee is 15-2 UNDER in its last 17 games as a neutral court underdog of 3 points or less or PK. Kansas is 75-47 UNDER in its last 122 games with a line of +3 to -3. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
|11-21-23||Jazz +8 v. Lakers||99-131||Loss||-110||21 h 44 m||Show|
15* Jazz/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah +8
The Utah Jazz are playing well going 2-2 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. Their two losses came to the Suns by 3 points apiece with Devin Booker and Kevin Durant both healthy. Now they will give LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers are run for their money tonight.
The Lakers are getting too much respect now after winning five of their last six games coming in. But three of the five were decided by 6 points or less, and it has mostly come against a very soft schedule. They lost by 15 at home to the Kings for their lone loss. Their only wins by margin came against arguably the two worst teams in the NBA in the Grizzlies and Blazers, and they also only beat the Blazers by 6. They beat the Rockets by 1 last time out.
The Jazz should be the fresher team here too playing just their 3rd game in 7 days, while the Lakers will be playing their 5th game in 8 days. The Jazz are 38-18 ATS in their last 56 games as underdogs. Utah is 32-13 ATS in its last 45 games vs. a team with a winning record.
Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA Lakers) - off a close home win by 3 points or less, winning between 51-60% of their games on the season are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Jazz Tuesday.
|11-21-23||Tennessee v. Purdue UNDER 135||67-71||Loss||-110||11 h 36 m||Show|
15* Tennessee/Purdue ESPN ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 135
Tennessee is a dead nuts UNDER team dating back to last season. They are at it again this season. They rank 257th in adjusted tempo, 348th in average length of opponents possession and 1st in the entire country in defensive efficiency. They make their opponents work for every shot they get.
Purdue ranks 189th in adjusted tempo and 5th in defensive efficiency. So these are currently two of the Top 5 defensive teams in the country. The end result should be points being very hard to come by for both teams.
Tennessee suffocated Syracuse in a 73-56 victory that saw 129 combined points with a 145.5-point total yesterday to go well UNDER the total. Purdue topped Gonzaga 73-63 for just 136 combined points with a total of 153.5. These teams both went UNDER their totals by a combined 34 points yesterday.
Tennessee is 15-2 UNDER in its last 17 games as a neutral court underdog of 3 points or less. The Volunteers are 18-5 UNDER in their last 23 games vs. good offensive teams that average 77 or more points per game. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
|11-21-23||Pacers v. Hawks OVER 250||Top||157-152||Win||100||22 h 9 m||Show|
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pacers/Hawks OVER 250
The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team. They are 11-1 OVER in their 12 games this season scoring 125.7 points per game and allowing 123.7 points per game. They rank 1st in pace, 1st in offensive efficiency and 26th in defensive efficiency. Oddsmakers can't set their totals high enought.
Now the Pacers play another dead nuts OVER team in the Atlanta Hawks. The Hawks rank 3rd in pace, 6th in offensive efficiency and 21st in defensive efficiency. The OVER is 5-1 in Hawks last six games overall.
The OVER is 11-1 in the last 12 meetings between the Pacers and Hawks. They combined for 273 points in their most recent meeting and had no problem topping the 249.5-point total. They won't have a problem topping this 250-point total, either. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.
|11-20-23||Bradley -120 v. Tulane||80-77||Win||100||14 h 21 m||Show|
15* CBB Monday Late-Night BAILOUT on Bradley ML -120
The Bradley Braves are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS this season against a tough schedule. They went on the road and beat UAB 73-71 as 4.5-point dogs, beat Utah State 72-66 as 5.5-point home favorites and topped Tarleton State 86-63 as 10-point home favorites. UAB and Utah State are two of the better mid-major programs in the country, so they have been battle-tested heading into this SoCal Challenge Tournament.
Tulane is 3-0 SU but 1-2 ATS and has faced an extremely weak schedule. The Green Wave beat Nicholls State 91-81 as 13-point favorites, Northwestern State 88-71 as 18.5-point favorites before topping Sacramento State 92-57. This will be a shock to the system for the Green Wave having to go on the road for the first time this season and face a real opponent in Bradley.
Bradley is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games following a game where they made 60% of their shots or better. Tulane is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games after playing three consecutive games as a favorite. Bet Bradley on the Money Line Monday.
|11-20-23||Heat -120 v. Bulls||118-100||Win||100||20 h 54 m||Show|
15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Miami Heat ML -120
The Miami Heat will be out for revenge from a 102-97 loss at Chicago on Saturday just two days ago. They led 22-1 in the first quarter and couldn't hang on as they got complacent and the Bulls got hot. They won't make the same mistake again here in the rematch.
The Heat are 7-1 SU in their last eight games overall while the Bulls are 1-3 SU in their last four games. Plays on road favorites (Miami) - revenging a same-season loss while also off an upset loss as a favorite are 57-25 (69.5%) ATS over the last five seasons. I love the spot for Miami tonight. Bet the Heat on the Money Line Monday.
|11-20-23||Bucks -9 v. Wizards||142-129||Win||100||19 h 54 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Night BLOWOUT on Milwaukee Bucks -9
The Milwaukee Bucks are starting to form chemistry now with Damian Lillard in the fold and they are playing up to their potential. The Bucks have gone 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with their lone ATS loss coming by a half-point in a 9-point home win over the Bulls as 9.5-point favorites. They beat the Mavs by 7 as 2-point home favorites on the 2nd of a back-to-back. They also beat the Raptors by 16 and the Hornets by 31 on the road.
Now they hit the road again and face arguably the worst team in the entire NBA in the Washington Wizards. The Wizards are 2-10 this season. The Wizards rank 25th in defensive efficiency and are allowing 122.9 points per game and 49.6% shooting this season. They also rank just 24th in offensive efficiency and 27th in net rating.
The Bucks are 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS in their last three meetings with the Wizards with two wins coming by double-digits. Milwaukee is 39-20 ATS in its last 59 games as a road favorite. The Wizards just lost by 13 to the Mavericks and by 21 to the Knicks at home in their last two games to fall to 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS at home this season. It will be more of the same here against the Bucks with another double-digit home loss. Bet the Bucks Monday.
|11-20-23||Connecticut -5.5 v. Texas||Top||81-71||Win||100||11 h 51 m||Show|
20* UConn/Texas ESPNU No-Brainer on UConn -5.5
The UConn Huskies won the national title last season and are loaded again this season. They are off to a 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS start this season with all four victories coming by 20 points or more. That includes their 77-57 win as 11-point favorites over Indiana yesterday in the early game.
Since they blew out Indiana, they were able to rest their starters late. They also played the early game yesterday while Texas played the night game. So they got to rest even longer plus watch the Longhorns play after. They will be the fresher team and will have the better game plan coming into this one as a result.
Texas is 0-3 ATS in its last three games overall and has been grossly overvalued. After covering by a single point in the opener, they failed to cover by 5 against Delaware State, by 4.5 against Rice and by 16.5 against Louisville. That 81-80 win as 17.5-point favorites over Louisville yesterday was alarming.
Louisville is expected to be one of the worst Power 5 teams in the country after last season's 4-27 disaster. Louisville was beaten in an exhibition game in the preseason. They only beat UMBC by 1 as 7.5-point favorites and were upset by Chattanooga by 10 as 3.5-point favorites. The fact that the Longhorns needed a buzzer-beater to beat Louisville is all you need to know about the state of their program this season, especially since they are without one of their best players in Dylan Disu.
UConn is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 neutral court games. The Huskies are 14-0 ATS in their last 14 games following three consecutive non-conference games. UConn is 19-2 ATS in its last 21 non-conference games. Texas is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after scoring 75 points or more in two consecutive games. Bet UConn Monday.
|11-19-23||Rockets v. Lakers UNDER 220.5||104-105||Win||100||11 h 23 m||Show|
15* Rockets/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 220.5
The Houston Rockets are a dead nuts UNDER team. They rank 29th in the NBA in pace and 4th in defensive efficiency. The Lakers rank 16th in pace and 22nd in offensive efficiency. This game will be played at a snail's pace tonight with some poor offense on both sides.
Five of Houston's last six games have seen 219 or fewer combined points. The lone exception was their 128-94 win over the Lakers that saw 222 combined points. But familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games, and I expect this rematch to be more low-scoring, and we only need it to be 2 points less to cash this UNDER 220.5 ticket. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|11-19-23||Kings v. Mavs OVER 244.5||129-113||Loss||-110||10 h 32 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Kings/Mavericks OVER 244.5
The Dallas Mavericks are a dead nuts OVER team. They are 11-2 OVER in their 13 games this season, scoring 123.5 points per game and allowing 119.7 points per game. They rank 4th in pace, 2nd in offensive efficiency and 25th in defensive efficiency.
Now they play a Sacramento Kings team that is a dead nuts OVER team when De'Aaron Fox is healthy. They have gone for 252, 235 and 249 combined points in their last three games since Fox returned from injury. They have scored 132, 125 and 129 points in those three games and will hang another big number on the Mavericks tonight.
Dallas is 8-0 OVER when the total is 230 or higher this season. The Mavericks are 12-1 OVER in their last 13 games after playing three consecutive road games. They just combined for 257 points with the Bucks last night and have combined for at least 241 points with their opponents in six consecutive games now while going OVER in all six. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
|11-19-23||Kings -120 v. Mavs||129-113||Win||100||10 h 32 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday Night BLOWOUT on Sacramento Kings ML -120
The Sacramento Kings have been rolling since getting D'Aaron Fox back from injury. They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their four games since he returned. Now they are in a great spot tonight with yesterday off and playing a Mavericks team that will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.
The Mavericks put everything into their 125-132 road loss at Milwaukee last night and won't have much left in the tank for the Kings tonight. The Mavericks are a terrible defensive team ranking 25th in defensive efficiency this season. They won't be giving much effort on that end considering how tired they are.
Sacramento is 33-17 ATS in its last 50 road games. The Kings are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games vs. bad defensive teams that allow 48% shooting or higher. Sacramento is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 road games vs. bad defensive teams that allow 116-plus points per game. Bet the Kings on the Money Line Sunday.
|11-19-23||Magic v. Pacers -4||Top||128-116||Loss||-110||7 h 9 m||Show|
20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -4
The Indiana Pacers undervalued to start the season opening 7-4 SU & 7-4 ATS. They score 126.5 points per game while ranking 2nd in pace and 1st in offensive efficiency. Playing at home today, the Pacers will force the Magic into an up-tempo game. They are forcing everyone into up-tempo games, which is beneficial to them considering they are the best offensive team in the NBA, so more possessions equals more points for the Pacers.
This is a great spot for the Pacers as they are rested and ready to go after having the last four days off. Meanwhile, the Magic will be playing their 4th road game in 6 days and are a tired team right now, especially since they are short-handed due to injury. The Magic lost by 20 at Brooklyn and then upset the Bulls twice in three days, but the Bulls are terrible and the Magic are getting respect now for those two wins when they shouldn't be.
Orlando is 12-32 ATS in its last 44 games following two consecutive wins by 6 points or fewer. The Pacers are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 November home games. The Pacers are 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS in their last five meetings with the Magic. Bet the Pacers Sunday.
|11-19-23||Magic v. Pacers OVER 234||Top||128-116||Win||100||7 h 9 m||Show|
20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Magic/Pacers OVER 234
The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team. They are 10-1 OVER this season. They score 126.5 points per game and allow 123.4 points per game this season. They rank 2nd in pace, 1st in offensive efficiency and 27th in defensive efficiency.
Playing at home today, the Pacers will force the Magic into an up-tempo game. They are forcing everyone into up-tempo games, which is beneficial to them considering they are the best offensive team in the NBA, so more possessions equals more points for the Pacers. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
|11-19-23||Kansas State v. Miami-FL -2.5||Top||83-91||Win||100||4 h 16 m||Show|
20* Kansas State/Miami Bahamas Championship No-Brainer on Miami -2.5
The Miami Hurricanes made the Final 4 last year and brought back three starters from that team. All three are off to good starts with Wooga Poplar averaging a team-high 28.8 points, Norchad Omier averaging 14.0 points and a team-high 9.8 rebounds, and Nijel Pack averaging 13.0 points and a team-high 5.0 assists.
Bensley Joseph (13.8 PPG, 3.0 SPG) has taken over a starting role this season and handled it very well. Florida State transfer Matthew Cleveland took the place of NBA draft pick Jordan Miller, and he is filling those massive shoes nicely averaging 17.3 points, 6.5 rebounds and 3.0 assists. This team is absolutely loaded to say the least.
Miami blasted New Jersey Tech 101-60 as 25-point favorites in the opener and then easily handled UCF 88-72 as 9.5-point favorites. They had a letdown against FIU in a non-cover in a 86-80 win, likely looking ahead to this Bahamas Championship Tournament. But they got back to their covering ways, beating Georgia 79-67 as 8-point favorites. And now I expect them to blast this overrated Kansas State team.
Kansas State is overvalued after making a run to the Elite 8 last year. Gone to the NBA are Keyontae Johnson and Markquis Nowell, who combined to average 35 of K-State's 76.2 points per game last year. The leading return scorer is Nae'Qwan Tomlin, who averaged 10.4 points and 5.9 boards last season. But Tomlin is suspended to start the season, leaving the Wildcats with not much experience at all in what will be a rebuilding year.
Kansas State has been unimpressive thus far. The Wildcats lost 82-69 as 3-point dogs to USC on a neutral. They only beat Bellarmine 83-75 as 16-point favorites in their next game. After beating South Dakota State 91-68 and Providence 73-70 and covering both games, the Wildcats are now getting respect again. But they aren't in the same class as this Miami team, and that will show today. Bet Miami Sunday.
|11-18-23||Heat -2.5 v. Bulls||97-102||Loss||-110||11 h 6 m||Show|
15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Miami Heat -2.5
The Miami Heat are rolling right now with seven consecutive victories. They play a struggling Chicago Bulls team that is in the midst of a ton of trade rumors right now. The Bulls have lost three consecutive games, including back-to-back losses to Orlando at home.
The spot really favors the Heat tonight. They had yesterday off while the Bulls will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back following a 97-103 loss to the Magic last night. This will also be the 5th game in 7 days for the Bulls, which is one of the toughest spots a team can be in in the NBA. Bet the Heat Saturday.
|11-18-23||Knicks -6.5 v. Hornets||122-108||Win||100||9 h 1 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday Night BLOWOUT on New York Knicks -6.5
The New York Knicks have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA over the last two seasons. That has been the case again this season as they are 7-5 SU & 7-3-2 ATS in their 12 games. They have a great bench and guys like Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle just don't get the respect they deserve.
The Charlotte Hornets are a dumpster fire again this season and battling injuries. No starter other than La'Melo Ball scored more than 11 points last night in a 130-99 home loss to the Milwaukee Bucks. Now I expect them to get blown out by the Knicks, who are coming off a 120-99 road win at Washington last night.
The Knicks just beat the Hornets 129-107 as 10.5-point home favorites on Sunday. They will cover this short 6.5-point spread in the rematch as well with the Hornets showing nothing worth betting on of late.
The Knicks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. New York is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games as a road favorite. The Knicks are 18-5 ATS in their last 23 road games vs. a team with a losing record. New York is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games vs. poor teams that are outscored by 3-plus points per game. Bet the Knicks Saturday.
|11-17-23||Lakers v. Blazers UNDER 223.5||Top||107-95||Win||100||10 h 20 m||Show|
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Lakers/Blazers UNDER 223.5
The Portland Trail Blazers are without their top three guards in Anfernee Simons, Scoot Henderson and Malcolm Brogdon. They are a dead nuts UNDER team as a result, and they were even with these guys healthy with the way they are playing.
The Blazers rank 24th in the NBA in pace, dead last (30th) in offensive efficiency and 9th in defensive efficiency. They are putting in the effort defensively to try and stay competitive, but they just don't get anything easy on the offensive end. They have been held to 95 points by the Cavaliers and 99 points by the Jazz in their last two games coming in.
The Lakers rank in the middle of the pack (14th) in pace and are 21st in offensive efficiency. They should bring a big defensive effort after getting beat by the Kings last time out. I think this game will be played at a snail's pace, the defense will be there, and both teams will struggle to score.
Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. These teams just played less than a week ago on November 12th with the Lakers beating the Blazers 116-110 for 226 combined points and a total of 219.5. The Blazers shot 50% and the Lakers shot 48.8%, and both are unsustainable in the rematch. Now the total has been raised up to 223.5 for the rematch, so there's value with the UNDER. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.
|11-17-23||Arkansas State v. Iowa -20||74-88||Loss||-110||8 h 11 m||Show|
15* CBB Friday Night BLOWOUT on Iowa -20
The Iowa Hawkeyes are 2-1 ATS against the closing line but 3-0 ATS as long as you didn't wait til close to bet them. They beat North Dakota 110-68 as 20.5-point favorites, beat Alabama State 98-67 as closing 31.5-point favorites in the game that you win at all other numbers, and only lost 92-84 as 12-point road dogs at Creighton.
Death, taxes and betting on Iowa at home. Fran McCaffery is 101-63 ATS as a home favorite or PK as the coach of Iowa. McCaffery is 46-21 ATS as a home favorite of 12.5 points or more. Iowa is a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last seven games as a home favorite of 18.5 to 24 points.
Arkansas State lost 105-76 at Wisconsin in the opener and Iowa is better than Wisconsin. If they can lose by 29 to the Badgers and give up 105 points to a team not known for offense, you can imagine what they'll give up against Iowa today. The Red Wolves allow 90.7 points per game and 55.1% shooting to their opponents while ranking 290th in adjusted defense this season.
The Red Wolves are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games vs. teams that make 8 or more 3-point shots per game. The Hawkeyes are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. up-tempo teams that average 62 or more shots per game. Bet Iowa Friday.
|11-17-23||Arkansas State v. Iowa OVER 172.5||74-88||Loss||-110||8 h 11 m||Show|
15* CBB Friday Total DOMINATOR on Arkansas State/Iowa OVER 172.5
Two dead nuts OVER teams square off tonight when the Arkansas State Red Wolves visit the Iowa Hawkeyes. I fully expect Iowa to top 100 points in this one to lead the way to us cashing this OVER 172.5 ticket.
Iowa is 3-0 OVER in their three games this season. They beat North Dakota 110-68 for 178 combined points, beat Alabama State 98-67 for 165 combined points and beat lost 92-84 at Creighton for 176 combined points. Iowa ranks 9th in adjusted tempo and 7th in offensive efficiency while playing little defense.
Speaking of playing little defense, Arkansas State lost 105-76 at Wisconsin for 181 combined points in the opener. That's a Wisconsin team known for playing slow and struggling on offense. They also lost 81-76 at Bowling Green for 156 combined points and beat Alcorn State 100-86 for 186 combined points. The Red Wolves rank 290th in adjusted defense and 45th in average length of offensive possessions. They like to get it up quick like the Hawkeyes.
Iowa is 7-0 OVER in its last seven home games following a road game. The Hawkeyes are 14-3 OVER in their last 17 games against a team with a losing record. Bet the OVER in this game Friday.
|11-17-23||Kings -8.5 v. Spurs||Top||129-120||Win||100||8 h 52 m||Show|
20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Sacramento Kings -8.5
The Sacramento Kings have been rolling since getting De'Aaron Fox back from injury as he means everything to this team. In the two games back they crushed Cleveland 132-120 as 1-point home underdogs and upset the Lakers 125-110 as 1-point road dogs. Now they take on the hapless San Antonio Spurs tonight, and another double-digit blowout in their favor is going to be the result.
The Spurs are 0-6 SU & 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their last five losses coming by an average of 22.0 points per game. Injuries have set them back as they are without both Devin Vassell and Tre Jones. Plus, they just don't play any defense and simply don't have much talent aside from Wembenyana.
The Kings are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with the Spurs with their last three wins all coming by double-digits. San Antonio is 3-14 ATS in its last 17 games following four or more consecutive ATS losses. Sacramento is 8-0 ATS in its last eight road games vs. terrible defensive teams that allow 48% shooting or higher. Bet the Kings Friday.
|11-17-23||Butler +10 v. Michigan State||54-74||Loss||-105||7 h 41 m||Show|
15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Butler +10
Thad Matta clearly has his players in place this season to make the Butler Bulldogs a real threat in the Big East. Butler is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS this season beating Eastern Michigan 94-55 as 16-point favorites, SE Missouri State 91-56 as 20-point favorites and East Tennessee State 81-47 as 17-point favorites. The Bulldogs are grossly undervalued covering the spread by a combined 55 points in those first three games and remain undervalued as 10-point dogs to Michigan State tonight.
Michigan State is grossly overvalued. The Spartans are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS this season losing outright 76-79 as 16.5-point favorites to James Madison, only beating Southern Indiana 74-51 as 31.5-point favorites and losing to Duke 74-65 on a neutral as 4-point dogs. The Spartans have failed to cover those three spreads by a combined 33 points. Asking them to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much. Bet Butler Friday.
|11-16-23||Thunder -2.5 v. Warriors||Top||128-109||Win||100||20 h 29 m||Show|
20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5
The Golden State Warriors are going to be without their two most important players tonight. Stephen Curry (30.7 PPG) is what keeps the Warriors a contender in the West. Well, they are going to be without him tonight. They will also be without Draymond Green, who is their best defender and important in screen and rolls with Curry and as a passer. They are one of the worst teams in the NBA without these two.
I think the Warriors are getting too much respect here because they were able to hang with the Timberwolves in a 3-point loss without these two in their last game. That was clearly a letdown spot for the Timberwolves after beating the Warriors two days earlier, and knowing they didn't have to face Curry in the rematch. Then Green and Thompson got tossed right away and Minnesota simply took their foot off the gas.
The Oklahoma City Thunder won't make the same mistake tonight. They are in a great spot here as they are fully healthy and playing their best basketball of the season. They are 4-1 SU in their last five games overall and 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. They also want revenge from a 141-139 home loss to the Warriors as 6-point dogs on November 3rd just two weeks ago. Well, they didn't have their star in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for that game, while the Warriors were fully healthy and they still only lost by 2 on a buzzer-beater by the Warriors.
This game will also be on National TV so we'll get a fully-focused effort from the Thunder. Oklahoma City is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games when revenging a close loss by 3 points or less. Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OKC) - off a blowout home win by 20 points or more, a good team winning 60-75% of their games on the season are 22-3 (88%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Thunder Thursday.
|11-16-23||Missouri v. Minnesota +2||70-68||Push||0||11 h 53 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota +2
Minnesota has been impressive thus far beating Bethune-Cookman 80-60 as 17.5-point favorites and crushing UTSA 102-76 as 12-point favorites. They are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS covering the spread by a combined 16.5 points in their first two games, so they are undervalued.
Missouri is grossly overvalued thus far. The Tigers are 2-1 SU by 0-3 ATS this season. They failed to cover as 27.5-point favorites in a 22-point win over Arkansas-Pine Bluff, lost outright as 3-point favorites by 15 at home to Memphis, and only beat SIU-Edwardsville by 18 as 18.5-point favorites. They have failed to cover the spread in those three games by a combined 24 points.
Minnesota four-star freshman Cam Christie made his debut against UTSA and scored 18 points, which was the most points for a true freshman in his Golden Gophers debut since Kris Humphries in 2003. Dawson Garcia averaged 15.6 PPG and 6.6 RPG last season and has upped his game thus far, averaging 22.5 PPG and 10.0 RPG through two games. Isaiah Ihnen is averaging 14.0 PPG and 5.0 RPG after sitting out the past two seasons, so the Gophers are glad to have him back.
Missouri lost a ton of talent from the surprise team that made the NCAA Tournament last season in Dennis Gates' first year on the job. They lost Kobe Brown to the NBA and bring back just one full-time starter. It's no wonder they are struggling to meet expectations in the early going, especially with that 15-point home loss to Memphis being extra alarming. Bet Minnesota Thursday.
|11-15-23||Kings +108 v. Lakers||125-110||Win||108||10 h 35 m||Show|
15* Kings/Lakers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento ML +108
The Sacramento Kings just got De'Aaron Fox back from injury last time out. He put his stamp on the game right away with 28 points in a 132-120 home win over the Cleveland Cavaliers on Monday. Now the Kings will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days and are primed for a big effort against the Los Angeles Lakers tonight.
This is a tough spot for the Lakers playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a win over the lowly Memphis Grizzlies last night. The Lakers will also be playing their 7th game in 12 days and this is a big step up in class for them after beating the Grizzlies and Blazers at home in their last two games.
The Kings simply own the Lakers going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings including outright wins in their last two trips to Los Angeles. It will be more of the same tonight given the rest advantage for Sacramento in a game I expect them to win outright. Bet the Kings on the Money Line Wednesday.
|11-15-23||Georgetown v. Rutgers UNDER 134||60-71||Win||100||8 h 59 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgetown/Rutgers UNDER 134
Rutgers remains a dead nuts UNDER team with head coach Steve Pikiell at the helm. Through three games, the Scarlet Knights rank 281st in adjusted tempo, 150th in adjusted offense and 36th in adjusted defense. They combined for just 129 points with Princeton, 114 points with Boson U and 123 points with Bryant. This total of 134 has been set too high tonight.
Ed Cooley is the new head coach at Georgetown and he prefers to play slower and rely on defense similar to Pikiell. He clearly has his hands full with this team after a 67-68 upset loss to Holy Cross as 17.5-point favorites. Georgetown ranks 284th in adjusted tempo this season, playing even slower than Rutgers has thus far. Points will be at a premium tonight. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
|11-15-23||Knicks -105 v. Hawks||Top||116-114||Win||100||7 h 29 m||Show|
20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Knicks PK
This is a tough spot for the Atlanta Hawks. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 126-120 win at Detroit against the short-handed Pistons last night. Four of five starters played at least 34 minutes in that game to put away the Pistons late. They won't have much left in the tank for the Knicks tonight.
The Knicks had yesterday off following their loss in Boston on Monday. They will be the fresher team for this one, and I believe they are the better team this season. The Knicks have had the Hawks' number in recent meetings going 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in the least three meetings with road wins by 6 and 21 points as well as a home win by 24. They clearly have the Hawks figured out.
Atlanta is 6-22 ATS in its last 28 games following a win by 6 points or less. New York is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after scoring 100 points or fewer. The Knicks are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games when playing 6 or fewer games in 14 days. Bet the Knicks Wednesday.
|11-14-23||Cal-Irvine v. USC -12.5||70-60||Loss||-110||11 h 1 m||Show|
15* CBB Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on USC -12.5
USC returns leading scorer Boogie Ellis, who averaged 17.7 points per game last season and is the Pac-12 Preseason Player of the Year. They added ESPN's No. 1-ranked recruit in the class of 2023 in Isaiah Collier, who was named the co-MVP of the McDonald's All-American game after scoring 25 points.
Junior guard Kobe Johnson and 6-foot-11 senior Joshua Morgan are both great defensively and can score. 7-foot-1 Vincent Iwuchukwu returns from a health scare and senior DJ Rodman transfers in from Washington State. They will be just fine as they await the debut of Bronny James, who had a health scare with his heart.
That has proven to be the case thus far as USC is 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS. They beat Kansas State 82-69 as 3-point favorites on a neutral. Kansas State made the Elite 8 last year. They also handled their business in a 85-59 win as 23.5-point favorites over CS-Bakersfield. Ellis and Collier are meshing well and are up there for the best guard tandem in the entire country.
UC-Irvine has a really bad loss already coming 72-64 at San Jose State as 3.5-point favorites. Their 91-74 home win over New Mexico State isn't that impressive when you consider New Mexico State lost by 40 at Kentucky the game prior. Irvine is getting too much respect here and will be in over their heads against this loaded, underrated Trojans team. Bet USC Tuesday.
|11-14-23||Iowa v. Creighton OVER 160.5||84-92||Win||100||22 h 55 m||Show|
15* Iowa/Creighton FS1 ANNIHILATOR on OVER 160.5
Two teams that love to push the tempo play tonight as the Iowa Hawkeyes visit the Creighton Bulldogs. Iowa ranks 11th in adjusted tempo and 7th in average possession length and 11th in adjusted offensive efficiency while scoring 104.0 points per game through two games this season. Creighton ranks 6th in adjusted offensive efficiency while scoring 97.0 points per game in their two victories thus far.
"We're trying to get up and down the court and I feel we do that as well as anybody in the country," Creighton guard Trey Alexander said leading into this game with Iowa. "So for us to play a team that likes to do what we do, I think it's going to work well in our favor."
Iowa is 44-27 OVER in its last 71 games overall. Iowa is 10-1 OVER in its last 11 games vs. Big East opponents. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.
|11-14-23||Iowa +12.5 v. Creighton||84-92||Win||100||22 h 55 m||Show|
15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Iowa +12.5
Iowa has a nice mix of veterans and young freshman talent and I think this is one of the more underrated teams in the country right now. Iowa opened with a 110-68 win as 20-point favorites over North Dakota and a 98-67 win as closing 31.5-point favorites against Alabama State, though if you bet Iowa prior to close you likely won.
Peyton Sandfort (19.0 PPG, 10.5 RPG) has led the way but coach's son Patrick McCaffery (16.5 PPG) looks to be living up to his potential this season. "We respect everybody but we fear no one," McCaffery said leading into this game with Creighton. "We really need to come in and push the envelope. It's a great opportunity to compete. They're a really good team."
Creighton is getting a lot of respect with a Top 10 ranking while bringing back three starters plus adding in Utah State transfer Steven Ashworth. They won and covered their first two games against Florida A&M and North Dakota State, so this is clearly a big step up in class for both teams. I just don't think there's as much separation as this 12.5-point spread would indicate. Bet Iowa Tuesday.
|11-14-23||Mavs -3.5 v. Pelicans||110-131||Loss||-110||9 h 14 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Dallas Mavericks -3.5
The Dallas Mavericks are 8-2 this season and showing what they are capable of when Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are on the court at the same time. They have changed their offensive philosophy and are getting off shots quick so defenses don't have time to adjust, and Doncic is in the best shape of his life to accommodate it.
The Mavericks are scoring 124.1 points per game this season. They rank 9th in pace and 2nd in offensive efficiency, so it's clearly working. They just beat the Clippers 144-126 at home which was followed up by a 136-124 win at New Orleans. They get to play the Pelicans again tonight, and it's going to be more of the same given the current state of their opponent.
The Pelicans are one of the most injury-ravaged teams in the NBA right now. They are without CJ McCollum, Jose Alvarado, Trey Murphy III and Larry Nance Jr. They could also be without Herbert Jones, who is questionable. There is too much on the shoulders of Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson, and these two aren't capable of beating the Mavericks on their own.
The Pelicans are 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall with four losses by 12 points or more and the five losses coming by an average of 14.8 points per game. New Orleans is 0-9 ATS in its last nine games vs. explosive offensive teams that score 120-plus points pre game. Bet the Mavericks Tuesday.
|11-14-23||Texas A&M -5.5 v. SMU||79-66||Win||100||8 h 0 m||Show|
15* CBB Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Texas A&M -5.5
Texas A&M is ranked 13th in the country but they don't get the kind of respect as other top teams. They should be more than 5.5-point favorites here against the rebuilding SMU Mustangs tonight.
Texas A&M is 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS beating Texas A&M Commerce 78-46 as 21.5-point favorites. To compare, Texas Tech beat that same team by 27 and Kentucky only beat them by 20. The Aggies then went on the road and beat Ohio State 73-66 as 1.5-point dogs last time out.
SMU is 3-0 against a much softer schedule and have two concerning results already. The Mustangs only beat Southwest Assembly of God 82-63 and Lamar 78-67 as 20-point favorites. They aren't going to be able to hang with a team like Texas A&M given those results.
SMU is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 November games. The Mustangs are 13-30 ATS in their last 43 games as a home dog of 6 points or less or PK. The Aggies are 25-12 ATS in their last 37 games overall. Texas A&M is 34-18 ATS in its last 52 games as a road favorite or PK. In Buzz Williams I trust. Bet Texas A&M Tuesday.
|11-14-23||Tarleton St v. Bradley UNDER 133.5||63-86||Loss||-109||8 h 60 m||Show|
15* CBB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Tarleton State/Bradley UNDER 133.5
Bradley is a dead nuts UNDER team under head coach Brian Wardle. They rank 321st out of 333 teams in adjusted tempo this season. I think their first two games going over the total due to overtime has provided us with some line value on the UNDER here against Tarleton State tonight.
Bradley was tied 64-64 at the end of regulation against UAB for 128 combined points with a total of 140.5 that finished with 144 after OT. Bradley was tied 62-62 at the end of regulation for 124 combined points against Utah State with a 135-point total that finished with 138 after OT. Both UAB and Utah State are known as up-tempo teams too, so that's saying a lot about how Bradley plays that those two games were at 128 and 124 at the end of regulation, respectively.
Tarleton State played another team like Bradley in Virginia to open the season. They lost that game 80-50 for 130 combined points. Tarleton also plays slow ranking 278th in the country in average length of offensive possession. Tarleton is 14-4 UNDER in its last 18 games after allowing 65 points or fewer in two consecutive games coming in. Wardle is 15-6 UNDER in November home games as the coach of Bradley. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
|11-14-23||Pacers v. 76ers OVER 239||Top||132-126||Win||100||8 h 14 m||Show|
20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pacers/76ers OVER 239
The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team. They are 9-1 to the OVER this season while scoring 126.0 points per game and allowing 123.1 points per game. They rank 3rd in the NBA in pace, 1st in offensive efficiency and 27th in defensive efficiency.
The 76ers are having no problem scoring without James Harden as they are off to a 8-1 start this season and scoring 120.7 points per game. They are in line for one of their biggest outputs of the season, similar to their 146-128 home win over Washington a few games back that saw 174 combined points. Washington is a poor man's Indiana playing up-tempo and no defense.
The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between the Pacers and 76ers with 263, 262, 290 and 255 combined points. The books just can't set these Indiana totals high enough. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.
|11-13-23||South Dakota State +10.5 v. Kansas State||68-91||Loss||-110||13 h 36 m||Show|
15* CBB Monday Undervalued Underdog on South Dakota State +10.5
Kansas State is overvalued after making a run to the Elite 8 last year. Gone to the NBA are Keyontae Johnson and Markquis Nowell, who combined to average 35 of K-State's 76.2 points per game last year. The leading return scorer is Nae'Qwan Tomlin, who averaged 10.4 points and 5.9 boards last season. But Tomlin is suspended to start the season, leaving the Wildcats with not much experience at all in what will be a rebuilding year.
That appears to be the case thus far. The Wildcats lost 82-69 as 3-point dogs to USC on a neutral in their opener. They struggled to put away Bellarmine in a 83-75 win as 16-point home favorites last time out. That narrow win looks really bad when you consider Bellarmine lost their other game 91-57 as 10.5-point dogs at Washington. And in Washington's other two games, they failed to cover in an 8-point win over Northern Kentucky as 15.5-point favorites and lost outright by 7 as 5.5-point favorites against Nevada.
South Dakota State lost 81-75 at home as 2-point favorites against Akron in their opener. Everyone picked Akron to win the MAC this season, so that wasn't a bad loss at all. This might actually be a step down in class for them tonight. They went on to beat Dakota Wesleyan 83-55 and have had the last four days off to get ready for Kansas State.
South Dakota State is the preseason favorite to win the Summit League. A big reason for that is having Summit League Preseason Player of the Year, Zeko Mayo. He shows his 28-point effort against Akron was no fluke with 28 more against Wesleyan. He and William Kyle III (17 points, 13 rebounds) both had double-doubles. I expect Mayo, Kyle III and the Jackrabbits give the Wildcats a run for their money tonight. Bet South Dakota State Monday.
|11-13-23||Knicks +9 v. Celtics||98-114||Loss||-110||12 h 16 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Knicks +9
The New York Knicks have quietly gone 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall. They haven't lost a single game by more than 9 points all season, and they aren't about to start now.
The books have set this number too high because the Knicks are playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, but they blew out the Hornets 129-107 at 12:00 PM EST Sunday and now don't play until night on Monday. They also had three days off prior to that game and rested their starters in the 4th quarter of that blowout Sunday. They will still be fresh for this game Monday, and they want revenge from a 104-108 home loss to the Celtics in their first meeting this season.
The Celtics are getting too much respect here off a pair of blowout home wins over the Nets and Raptors. This is a big step up in class for them tonight. They never blow out the Knicks, going 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings with New York. The Knicks have them figured out, and they will keep this one close again tonight if not win outright.
New York is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games following a blowout win by 20 points or more. The Knicks are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games following three or more consecutive wins. Asking the Celtics to beat the Knicks by double-digits to beat us tonight is asking too much. Bet the Knicks Monday.
|11-13-23||Florida International v. Miami-FL -20.5||80-86||Loss||-110||12 h 36 m||Show|
15* CBB Monday Night BLOWOUT on Miami -20.5
The Miami Hurricanes made the Final 4 last year and brought back three starters from that team. All three are off to good starts with Wooga Poplar averaging a team-high 22.0 points, Norchad Omier averaging 19.5 points and a team-high 11.0 rebounds, and Nijel Pack averaging 9.5 points and a team-high 6.0 assists.
But the unsung hero is Bensley Joseph, who had an incredible stat line in a 88-72 win over UCF on Friday. He has 15 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists, 5 steals and 4 blocks. Florida State transfer Matthew Cleveland took the place of NBA draft pick Jordan Miller, and he is filling those massive shoes nicely averaging 14.0 points, 6.5 rebounds and 3.5 assists.
Miami blasted New Jersey Tech 101-60 as 25-point favorites in the opener and easily handled UCF 88-72 as 9.5-point favorites last time out. Now they play a terrible Florida International team that lost 85-62 as 9.5-point dogs at UCF in their opener to give these teams a rare common opponent here early in the season. It was no aberration as FIU went on to lose 82-65 despite being 4.5-point home favorites to Tarleton State. It's not going to go well for the Panthers tonight, either.
FIU is 8-18 ATS in its last 26 road games. The Panthers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games. Miami is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games following a home win where they scored 85 points or more. The Hurricanes rank 3rd in the country in average offensive possessions length so they are going to get a ton of shots up on offense, which is why I'm not scared of laying this big number. Bet Miami Monday.
|11-12-23||Thunder +3 v. Suns||111-99||Win||100||11 h 54 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Oklahoma City Thunder +3
The Phoenix Suns are going to be fade material until they get healthy. Bradley Beal is working his way back from injury, Devin Booker remains out and Eric Gordon is questionable after missing the last game. There's just not enough depth on this team to be missing these guys, or not having them at 100%.
The Suns are 2-4 SU & 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games overall which includes upset losses to the Spurs (twice) and Lakers all at home. Their only two wins during this stretch came against the lowly Bulls and Pistons. Now they take a big step up in class here against an Oklahoma City Thunder team that I believe is a contender in the West when healthy.
Well, the Thunder are healthy right now beating the Hawks and Cavaliers at home before a disappointing loss at Sacramento. They'll come back highly motivated for a victory after that loss to the Kings, and they should not be underdogs here given the current state of the Suns.
The Thunder are 42-22 ATS in their last 64 games after scoring 105 points or less. Oklahoma City is 37-23 ATS in its last 60 games as an underdog. Bet the Thunder Sunday.
|11-12-23||Nuggets v. Rockets +4.5||104-107||Win||100||10 h 60 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Rockets +4.5
The Houston Rockets are grossly undervalued right now. They are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall despite being underdogs in three of those five games. They have wins by 9, 18, 25, 34 and 3 points as these games have rarely even been close to the spread.
Now the Rockets will stay hot tonight and won't have a letdown considering the defending champion Denver Nuggets are coming to town. The Nuggets have been fortunate to play a home-heavy schedule to this point with six of their first nine games at home. They are 1-2 ATS on the road with a 4-point win over lowly Memphis and a 21-point loss at Minnesota included.
The Nuggets aren't at full strength right now as Jamal Murray is sidelined with a hamstring injury. They have been dominant when Murray and Jokic have been on the court at the same time, but they have been vulnerable the past several seasons when Murray has been out. They are vulnerable tonight against the red-hot Rockets. Bet the Rockets Sunday.
|11-12-23||Pacers v. 76ers OVER 237.5||Top||126-137||Win||100||19 h 1 m||Show|
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Pacers/76ers OVER 237.5
The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team. They are 8-1 to the OVER this season while scoring 126.0 points per game and allowing 121.6 points per game. They rank 2nd in the NBA in pace, 1st in offensive efficiency and 26th in defensive efficiency.
The 76ers are having no problem scoring without James Harden as they are off to a 7-1 start this season and scoring 118.6 points per game. They are in line for one of their biggest outputs of the season, similar to their 146-128 home win over Washington a few games back that saw 174 combined points. Washington is a poor man's Indiana playing up-tempo and no defense.
The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings between the Pacers and 76ers with 262, 290 and 255 combined points. The books just can't set these Indiana totals high enough. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
|11-11-23||Raptors +8.5 v. Celtics||94-117||Loss||-115||19 h 36 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Toronto Raptors +8.5
The Toronto Raptors have turned it around and been very impressive in their last four games. They have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with their lone loss coming to the 76ers on the 2nd of a back-to-back. The 76ers have just one loss this season and it came by a single point.
Toronto beat Milwaukee 130-111 as 4.5-point home dogs. The Raptors went on the road and topped San Antonio 123-116 as 3.5-point favorites. They then upset the Dallas Mavericks 127-116 as 4.5-point dogs. Now they are rested and ready to go after having the last two days off, plus they will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days here.
Meanwhile, Boston will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after beating the Nets 121-107 at home last night. The starters had to play most the game in that one as it wasn't decided until late in the 4th quarter. It will also be the 5th game in 8 days for the Celtics, who shouldn't be laying this big of a number given the Raptors' rest advantage.
Four of the last five meetings between Boston and Toronto have been decided by 6 points or fewer. Bet the Raptors Saturday.
|11-11-23||UL - Lafayette v. Toledo -6.5||78-87||Win||100||18 h 26 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Toledo -6.5
The Toledo Rockets are a contender in the MAC this season. The won 94-60 as 15.5-point home favorites over Detroit in their opener to continue their ATS dominance over the last several seasons, especially when favored at home.
Louisiana beat Youngstown State 72-62 as 4-point home favorites in their opener. Louisiana is picked to finish in the middle of the pack in the Sun Belt. That win over Youngstown State doesn't look at good now after Youngstown State just lost 92-62 at Michigan as 16-point underdogs Friday night.
Toledo is 44-24 ATS in its last 68 games overall. Toledo is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 home games. Bet Toledo Saturday.
|11-10-23||Thunder -1.5 v. Kings||98-105||Loss||-110||12 h 33 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Oklahoma City Thunder -1.5
The Oklahoma City Thunder just got their star in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander back in the lineup and promptly pulled off two consecutive upset victories over the Hawks 126-117 and the Cavaliers 128-120. They are as healthy as they have been all season and a dangerous team when that's the case.
The Sacramento Kings are still without their star in De'Aaron Fox, and they have been dreadful without him. The Kings are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games without Fox. That includes consecutive blowout losses to the Rockets by 25 and 18 points, as well as a narrow 3-point win over the Blazers as 8-point favorites last time out. This is now a big step up in class here for the Kings against the Thunder tonight. It won't go well for the Kings here.
Plays against home teams were the line is +3 to -3 (Sacramento) - after losing by 42 or more points total against the spread in their last five games in the first half of the season are 25-5 (83.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Thunder Friday.
|11-10-23||Pelicans v. Rockets -2.5||Top||101-104||Win||100||10 h 34 m||Show|
20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Houston Rockets -2.5
The Houston Rockets are grossly undervalued right now. They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last five games overall despite being underdogs in three of those four games. They have wins by 9, 18, 25 and 34 points as these games aren't even coming close to the spreads.
Now the Rockets will stay hot tonight against the injury-ravaged New Orleans Pelicans. The Pelicans are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall losing by 18, 18 and 21 points. They are without CJ McCollum, Jose Alvarado, Naji Marshall and Trey Murphy III. Both Zion Williamson and Herbert Jones are questionable tonight as well.
New Orleans is 16-32 ATS in its last 48 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Pelicans are 6-17 ATS in their last 21 games vs. good teams outscoring opponents by 3-plus points per game. The Pelicans are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 road games when playing against a marginal winning (51-60%) team.
Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Houston) - after beating the spread by 42 or more points in their last five games in the first half of the season are 44-18 (71%) ATS over the last five seasons. Plays on any team (Houston) - vs. division opponents, off three or more consecutive upset wins as underdogs are 48-18 (72.7%) ATS since 1996. Bet the Rockets Friday.
|11-10-23||Nets +12 v. Celtics||107-121||Loss||-110||9 h 4 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +12
The Brooklyn Nets are 4-4 SU but 7-0-1 ATS this season. They haven't lost a single game by more than 10 points and three of their four losses came by 5 points or fewer. They have been competitive in every game, and they will be competitive against the Celtics tonight.
The Nets will be motivated to revenge that 10-point defeat as it came at the hands of the Celtics on November 4th less than a week ago. Keep in mind the Nets were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back in that game, while the Celtics were coming in on two days' rest so they had a huge advantage. They don't have that same advantage tonight.
The Celtics aren't playing well right now going 1-2 SU & 0-2-1 ATS in their last three games overall. They were upset on the road by both the Timberwolves and 76ers plus pushing in that 10-point win over the Nets. The Celtics are back home for the first time since November 1st and there are distractions they will be dealing with back home after a 3-game road trip. Bet the Nets Friday.