15* CBB Friday Big Chalk BLOWOUT on Kentucky -12

The Kentucky Wildcats will be playing their first SEC Tournament game today and will make easy work of the Alabama Crimson Tide, who are playing their 2nd game in 2 days after a 91-83 victory over Ole Miss yesterday.

It's s that Kentucky owns Alabama.  The Wildcats are 5-0 in the last five meetings, and they have won by 25, 16, 15, 22 and 7 points in those five.  The last four have come by an average of 19.5 points per game.  Take Kentucky Friday.

25* Atlantic 10 Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on St. Joe's -1.5

The St. Joe's Hawks need a win to assure their spot int he NCAA Tournament.  I believe they are undervalued right now due to losing their final two games of the regular season as well.

What I really like about this game is that St. Joe's comes in rested having last played on March 5th, while George Washington played yesterday in a 73-65 win over lowly Saint Louis and will be the more tired team.

St. Joe's won 84-66 as 4.5-point dogs at George Washington in their only meeting this season.  The Hawks are 7-0 ATS versus good rebounding teams who outrebound their opponents by 4-plus board per game this season.  Bet St. Joe's Friday.

15* AAC Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Cincinnati -1

The Cincinnati Bearcats have proven they are a better team than UConn twice this season in beating the Huskies.  I expect them to prove it for a 3rd time in the AAC Tournament today to secure their spot in the NCAA Tournament.

Cincinnati is one of the best defensive teams in the country, and it has a huge advantage inside against Connecticut.  The Bearcats held the Huskies to 37.3% shooting in a 65-60 home victory, and 38.3% shooting in a 58-57 road win this year.

The Huskies are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. The favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet Cincinnati Friday.

15* SEC Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas A&M -4

The Texas A&M Aggies come in rested and ready to go today against Florida.  The Aggies last played on March 5th, while Florida beat Arkansas 68-61 yesterday and will be playing a second consecutive day.

The Gators will now have to deal with arguably the best team in the SEC in Texas A&M.  The Aggies are playing very well right now, too, going 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with four of those victories coming by 9 points or more.  They also beat Kentucky by 2 at home.

Florida is 0-8 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent over the last two seasons.  The Gators are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Roll with Texas A&M Friday.

15* CBB Friday Early ANNIHILATOR on Dayton -4.5

Analysis will be posted shortly

15* Big Ten Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana -7.5

Analysis will be posted shortly

15* CBB Thursday Night Line Mistake on Fresno State +1

I faded UNLV with success yesterday by cashing in Air Force +11.  It was really never in doubt, but I did have to sweat out three overtimes as UNLV won a wild 108-102 game.  Now, the Rebels aren't going to have much left in the tank today for Fresno State.

UNLV starters Jerome Seagers (54 minutes), Ike Nwamu (55) and Patrick McCaw (55) will be particularly gassed.  That trio combined for 78 points yesterday against Air Force.  But there's no question in my mind that all three will have off shooting nights after what they went through last night in beating the Falcons.

At the same time, Fresno State comes in well-rested having last played on March 5th.  The Bulldogs (22-9) also come in playing their best basketball of the season.  They have gone 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall, including road wins over Wyoming, New Mexico and Utah State.  The Bulldogs have won each of their last two meetings with UNLV as well.

The Rebels are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a straight up win.  UNLV is 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall.  The Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The Bulldogs are 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Roll with Fresno State Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Hawks/Raptors UNDER 199.5

The Atlanta Hawks have been the best defensive team in the NBA since the All-Star Break.  Indeed, the Hawks have allowed an average of 86.5 points per game in regulation while winning five of their last six games overall.  Having Thabo Sefolosha play bigger minutes has certainly been a key in that.

The Toronto Raptors get a lot of love for their offense, but they play at the second-slowest pace in the NBA at 95.4 possessions per game.  Their defense has been great all season, giving up 98.3 points per game overall and 97.8 points per game at home.

Recent meetings between would certainly suggest that the oddsmakers have set this total too high.  They have combined for 182, 185 and 199 points in their last three meetings.  That's an average of 188.7 combined points per game, which is roughly 11 points less than tonight's posted total of 188.7.

Toronto is 8-1 to the UNDER vs. poor rebounding teams who are outrebounded by 3-plus boards per game this season.  The UNDER is 10-4 in Hawks last 14 games following an ATS win.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

25* SEC Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Ole Miss -2.5

The Ole Miss Rebels are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are 20-11 on the season, including 10-8 in SEC play, yet they are getting no love from Joe Lunardi and the bracket prognosticators.  But I've been riding this team all season, and I'll continue to do so in the SEC Tournament as they continue playing with a chip on their shoulder.

Ole Miss closed the season by going 4-1 in its last five games overall, so it comes in playing very well.  It also owns a 74-66 home victory over Alabama as 5-point favorites in their first meeting this season.  The Rebels have one of the best players in the country in Stefan Moody, who averages 23.1 points per game.  He will have his way with Alabama once again.

I really do not like the mindset of Alabama right now.  Three weeks ago, it was safely in the NCAA Tournament.  But four losses in five games later, and the Crimson Tide are well on the outside with no chance of making it.  The Tide lost at home to Mississippi State and Arkansas, and their only win came against awful Auburn 65-57.  They also lost by 25 at Kentucky and by 7 at Georgia.

The Crimson Tide are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall and getting way too much respect from oddsmakers here.  The Rebels continue flying under the radar as they are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They are also 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a win by more than 20 points.  They won by 23 at Tennessee in the regular season finale.  Bet Ole Miss Thursday.

15* Pac-12 Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Oregon -7

The Oregon Ducks were one of the most underrated teams in college basketball this season, and they continue to be.  They went 25-6 overall and 14-4 in Pac-12 play to win the conference.  They also went 16-11 ATS in all games this year, and they come in on a five-game winning streak with all five victories coming by 8 points or more.

Yet the Ducks are only laying 7 points here to Washington in the Pac-12 Tournament.  Oregon comes in well-rested having last played on March 5th, while Washington will be playing a second consecutive day after dismantling Stanford 91-68 yesterday.

I believe that blowout victory has the Huskies overvalued here.  Remember, they had lost six of their previous eight games with their only two wins coming at home over Stanford and Washington State.  So, Oregon is playing better coming in, and it is more rested and prepared for this contest.

The Ducks are also playing to earn a No. 1 or No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament, so they aren't about to let up now.  They made easy work of the Huskies in their lone meeting this season, winning 86-73 as 11-point favorites.

The Ducks are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Oregon is 51-22-3 ATS in its last 76 games following an ATS win.  The Huskies are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet Oregon Thursday.

15* Mountain West Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on San Diego State -7

The San Diego State Aztecs are squarely on the bubble in terms of the NCAA Tournament.  They are currently a No. 11 seed according to Joe Lunardi and could get bounced if they were to lose to Utah State in their opening game of the MWC Tournament.  It's safe to say the Aztecs will be dialed in and focused here.

It also helps that the Aztecs come in rested having last played on March 5th.  They made a statement to close out the season while finishing 16-2 in MWC play to run away with the conference title.  They won 83-56 at New Mexico as 1-point favorites, and then crushed UNLV 92-56 as 10-point home favorites in their final two games of the season.

At 16-14 on the season, Utah State is simply not very good.  The Aggies did blow out lowly Wyoming 88-70 in their MWC Tournament opener yesterday, but that win has them overvalued coming in.  It also means that the Aggies will be playing their 2nd game in 2 days, which clearly puts them at a disadvantage against the rested and prepared Aztecs.

Simply put, San Diego State owns Utah State.  It is 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in its last six meetings with Utah State over the past three seasons.  Dating back further, the Aztecs are 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings since 1997.  They have won the last five meetings by an average of 17.4 points per game.  SDSU is 7-0 ATS after scoring 80 points or more over the last three seasons.  Take San Diego State Thursday.

20* Conference USA GAME OF THE MONTH on UAB -6.5

Remember when UAB beat Iowa State as a No. 15 vs. No. 2 seed last year in the NCAA Tournament? Well, the Blazers brought all five starters back from that team, and they promptly dominated Conference USA this season with a 26-5 record overall and a 16-2 mark in conference action.

Now the Blazers must win the Conference USA Tournament to make the big dance again, so they will certainly be focused and ready to go today.  They come in rested having last played on March 5th, while their opponent in Western Kentucky just played yesterday in an 84-76 win over North Texas.

That edge in rest and preparation is a big reason why I like the Blazers today.  But another reason to love the Blazers is that this will be a home game for them played in Birmingham, Alabama.  UAB is 16-0 at home this season.  The home team is 5-0 SU in the last five meetings between these teams as well.

UAB is 10-1 ATS after failing to cover three of their last four against the spread over the last two seasons.  The Blazers are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  UAB is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games following an ATS loss.  Take UAB Thursday.

15* ACC Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on North Carolina -7.5

The North Carolina Tar Heels are arguably the best team in the country.  They went 25-6 this season and are playing to earn a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.  I like their chances of winning going away against Pitt in their ACC Tournament opener Thursday afternoon.

The biggest reason to love UNC is that it comes in rested having last played on March 5th in a 76-72 road win over Duke.  Meanwhile, the Pitt Panthers just played a hard-fought game yesterday against Syracuse and won 72-71 to advance.

So, the Tar Heels have a massive edge in rest and preparation.  Also, I don't think this is a good spot for Pitt mentally.  That game against Syracuse was essentially a play-in game in terms of the NCAA Tournament as both were squarely on the bubble.  Now that they know they are in the big dance, the Panthers may let up here.  It's also not a good matchup for the Panthers, who lost 64-85 at UNC in their only meeting this season.

Pitt is 0-8 ATS in March games over the last two seasons.  The Panthers are 0-7 ATS vs. dominant rebounding teams who outrebound opponents by 7-plus boards per game this season.  These two trends combine for a perfect 15-0 system backing UNC.  Also, the Panthers are 13-38-3 ATS in their last 54 games following a straight up win.  Roll with North Carolina Thursday.

15* ASU/Oregon State Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon State -2

The Oregon State Beavers are currently the second team on Joe Lunardi's "First Four Out" line, which means they wouldn't be in the NCAA Tournament if the season ended today.  It's safe to say that they will be highly motivated to put themselves on the right side of the bubble with a win over Arizona State Wednesday.

The Beavers have done their part here down the stretch by going 6-3 in their last nine games overall with their only losses all coming on the road to Cal, Oregon and USC.  They also have road wins over Stanford and UCLA, as well as home victories over Utah, Colorado, Washington and Washington State during this stretch.  So, they are playing very well.

The same cannot be said for Arizona State, which was the second-worst team in the Pac-12 this season ahead of only lowly Washington State.  The Sun Devils went 5-13 in conference play this season with two of those victories coming against Washington State.  They are 1-5 in their last six games overall with four of those losses coming by double-digits, so they aren't playing well at all.

ASU is 2-13 ATS after covering the spread in two of their last three games over the last two seasons.  Oregon State is 20-8 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons.  The Sun Devils are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 neutral site games.  The Beavers are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take Oregon State Wednesday.

15* ACC Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Virginia Tech +4

The Virginia Tech Hokies have a huge advantage coming into this game and should not be underdogs to Florida State.  They got to watch the Seminoles beat Boston College yesterday, which is 0-18 in ACC play this season.  They have the scouting advantage and the rest advantage coming in.

The Hokies finished with a winning record (10-8) in the ACC for the first time in the last five years this season.  Buzz Williams clearly has this program on the rise, and the Hokies are certainly playing their best basketball of the season coming into the ACC Tournament.

Indeed, Virginia Tech is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall.  Three of those wins came by double-digits, including an 83-73 victory over this same Seminoles team as well as a 77-62 triumph over highly-ranked Miami in the regular season finale.

Florida State is 0-6 ATS when playing its 3rd game in a week this season.  VA Tech is 14-4 ATS in all conference games this year.  The Hokies are 9-2 ATS when playing against a team that wins 60% to 80% of its games this season.  Roll with Virginia Tech Wednesday.

20* Clippers/Thunder ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are going to be out for serious revenge on the Los Angeles Clippers tonight.  They blew a 20-plus point lead against the Clippers on March 2nd exactly one week ago today to lost 98-103 on the road.

The Thunder were outscored 35-13 in the 4th quarter alone, and that memory is fresh in their minds.  It's safe to say that you can expect a huge effort from OKC tonight to try and avenge that defeat, this time at home.

The Thunder are 25-8 at home this season with an average margin of victory of 8.5 points per game.  They have had two days off since beating the Bucks 104-96 on the road, so they will be fresh and ready to go.  In fact, this will be just their 2nd game in 6 days as well.

Oklahoma City is 5-1 ATS in its last six games playing on 2 days' rest.  The Clippers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS win.  The Thunder are 27-9-2 ATS in their last 38 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Bet the Thunder Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Dallas Mavericks -2.5

The Dallas Mavericks are going to be highly motivated for a victory Wednesday when they host the Detroit Pistons.  That's because they have lost three in a row coming in with two of those losses coming by a combined 5 points.  It's safe to say they are going to want to get back in the win column in a hurry.

In fact, going through the Mavs' entire season, I find that they have not lost four in a row at any point this year.  That shows that they have been a very resilient team, and it also shows that the chances of them losing four in a row now is highly unlikely.

This 3-game losing streak has the Mavs undervalued as only 2.5-point home favorites, and couple that with the fact that the Pistons are 5-2 in their last seven games and overvalued, and it's clear to see that we are getting the Mavs at a big discount at home tonight.  The Pistons are just 13-20 SU & 13-20 ATS on the road this year.

Detroit is 4-12 ATS in road games off a non-conference game this season.  Dallas is 102-67 ATS in its last 169 games following a loss by 15 points or more.  The Pistons are 5-17 ATS in road games vs. teams who allow 99-plus points per game this season.  The Mavericks are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.  Roll with the Mavericks Wednesday.

15* Grizzlies/Celtics ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Boston -9

The Memphis Grizzlies are in shambles right now.  They are expected to be without their three best players tonight.  They were already without Marc Gasol, but now Mike Conley has been ruled out, and Zach Randolph is doubtful.  Not to mention Brendan Wright is out and Matt Barnes is questionable.

Somehow, the Grizzlies were able to beat the Cavaliers 106-103 on the road last time out without Gasol and Conley.  That is highly unlikely to happen again here against the superior Celtics.  That win over the Cavs also sets the Grizzlies up for a massive letdown spot.  After all, this team just lost at home 100-109 to lowly Phoenix prior to that Cavs game.

The Celtics just keep rolling along and not getting any love despite being one of the best teams in the East.  They have gone 16-5 in their last 21 games overall.  They are coming off a loss on the road to Cleveland, but you have to go all the way back to January 18-20 to find the last time they lost two games in a row.  They have also had three days' rest since that defeat to the Cavs, so they will be fresh and ready to go tonight.

Memphis is 8-19 ATS in its last 27 games off a close win by 3 points or less.  Boston is 50-33 ATS in its last 83 games when revenging a loss.  The Grizzlies are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Celtics are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Boston is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games.  The Celtics are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.  Take the Celtics Wednesday.

20* Mountain West Tournament No-Brainer on Air Force +11

Simply put, the UNLV Rebels are not 11 points better than the Air Force Falcons on a neutral court.  That will show today as the Falcons give the Rebels a run for their money, possibly winning this game outright.

I realize this is more of a home game for UNLV, but I think they have over-adjusted the line for this game being played in Las Vegas.  The Rebels just can't be trusted witht he way they are playing right now.  They have a 12-point loss to Boise State and a 36-point loss to San Diego State in two of their last three games.

Air Force really came on strong toward the end of the season in going 6-3 ATS in its last nine games overall.  The Falcons pulled off upsets wins over Wyoming (by 8) as 4.5-point dogs, Boise State (by 8) as 11.5-point dogs, UNLV (by 5) as 8.5-point dogs and New Mexico (by 4) as 8-point dogs during this stretch.

The Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The Rebels are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  UNLV is 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet Air Force Wednesday.

25* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Utah Jazz -1

The Utah Jazz could not possibly be more undervalued than they are right now.  They have lost five of their last six games overall, but ended their 5-game skid with a 106-94 win in New Orleans last time out to get back on track.  It's also worth nothing that they are coming off a tough 4-game road trip.

But now the Jazz are well-rested and ready to get back on track having last played on Saturday.  They also return home where they are 19-12 on the season.  The Jazz are currently the 9th seed in the West, so they really need to get it going.  They are 1.5 games behind Houston for the No. 8 seed.

Conversely, the Atlanta Hawks couldn't be more overvalued right now.  They are coming off back-to-back double-digit blowouts on the road against both Los Angeles teams.  They are also 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall, so the betting public is going to be all over them, which is why this line is only -1.

Atlanta is 2-10 ATS when playing against a team with a win percentage between 40% and 49% this season.  Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Atlanta) - off an upset win as a road underdog are 175-120 (59.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Hawks are 16-33 ATS in their last 49 games playing on 2 days' rest.  Bet the Jazz Tuesday.

15* ACC Tournament Tuesday No-Brainer on Boston College +13

The betting public wants nothing to do with the Boston College Eagles right now.  That's because this team somehow managed to go 0-17 in ACC play.  But with that record comes zero expectations from the betting public and oddsmakers, which is why the Eagles are catching too many points here as 13-point dogs to Florida State.

The Eagles came very close to winning a couple games down the stretch.  They only lost 71-76 as 9.5-point home dogs to Georgia Tech, and then they lost 72-73 on a buzzer-beater as 15-point road dogs at NC State in two of their final three games.  They don't want to go winless in the ACC, so they will be laying it all on the line here with the pride factor against Florida State.

The Seminoles have no business being 13-point favorites against anyone in the ACC.  But they come in overvalued due to going 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in their final two games.  Remember, they had lost five straight prior to that stretch.  The Seminoles went 8-10 in ACC play this season, but only two of those wins came by more than 11 points.  They just don't blow anyone out.

This has been an extremely closely-contested series of late.  In fact, each of the last five meetings have been decided by 10 points or less, and I believe this one will be, too.  The Eagles are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games following a ATS loss.  Take Boston College Tuesday.

20* NBA No Brainer on Grizzlies +12.5

Memphis has been playing a lot better recently, with the lone exception when they play the Suns.  But, yesterday was probably a lookahead to today's game, so I'm not too worried about the hiccup.  

Cleveland has won three in a row at home after their back-to-back road losses against Toronto and Washington, but this is a big number for them to be laying here tonight.  There were only favored by 16 over the Lakers back on February 10th and Memphis is definitely more than 3.5 points better than LA.

These two teams played back on October 28th with Cleveland winning by 30 points.  That puts us in a nice revenge spot here tonight as underdogs revenging a home blowout loss of 20+ points against an opponent off a home win are 49-22 (69%) over the last 5 years.  

I'll take the big number here as Memphis keeps this game close.

20* Big Ten No Brainer on Wisconsin +6

The Badgers are a different team from the one that lost by six at home to Purdue back on December 29th.  Since beating Michigan State on January 17th they really turned a corner, winning 11 of 12 games.  Their sole loss was to the Spartans, a team that is without a doubt the best the Big 10 has to offer.

The Boilermakers on the other hand have been over-rated by oddsmakers for too long.  Now just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games, they continue to get too much respect here.  

Purdue hasn’t been turning teams over and that is going to give opponents too many opportunities to score buckets.  If you go back over the last four seasons, home favorites forcing 12 or less turnovers per game after four straight games forcing opponents to turn the ball over 11 times or fewer are 61-110 (64.3%) ATS.

15* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Week on Pistons +1

I normally don’t love teams coming off a back-to-back, but it’s Portland who should be tired coming into this game.  The Blazers are playing their sixth road game in 9 nights, and while they have played well on the trip they have to be wearing down and looking forward to getting back home.

The Pistons have done surprisingly well in back-to-backs recently.  They dominated the Raptors 114-101 last week and pulled a 96-88 upset in Cleveland the time before that.  Detroit’s actually covered in four straight in this spot.

This is an important game for Detroit.  They blew one they should have won last night in New York, and if they have any intention of making the playoffs they need to get one back here on Sunday.  I think they respond with the win here.

15* Late Night Total Bailout on Clippers/Hawks Under 199.5

I think the oddsmakers have set the bar a little high for this total on Saturday night.  Atlanta has played solid defense all season long, giving up just 99.4 ppg to teams that are averaging 101.9, but in their last 5 games they have allowed on 90.4 while scoring 98.6.  That includes two games against the Warriors too, the other 3 teams didn't get past 88.

The Clippers are also dialing it up on the defensive end since the break.  They allowed 86 to the Spurs, 84 to the Suns, 87 to the Nuggets, 95 to the Nets, and 98 to the Thunder.  The only times they have given up 100 were to the Warriors and Kings.  Two teams that play a lot faster pace than the Clippers do.

Take the Under here tonight.

20* Pac-12 Game of the Week on Cal -5

Cal isn't getting enough respect in this game coming off their close loss at Arizona Thursday night while Arizona State is getting a little too much love after ending their four game losing streak against Stanford.

The Bears are one of the hottest teams in the league right now, winning 7 straight before that loss to the Wildcats and they have covered 8 straight games.  Arizona State on the other hand isn't very good, they haven't won as an underdog since December 16th, so I don't think we have to worry about the Sun Devils pulling an upset in this one.  

Cal has been dominating teams on the boards this year, averaging 40.1 to giving up only 33.  That puts us in a nice little situation Arizona State is just 11-22 ATS against teams who outrebound their opponents by 4+ per game over the last 3 seasons.

Take the Bears

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Washington Wizards -2

I like Washington to bounce back here tonight against Indiana.  The Wizards have been playing a lot better recently, winning 7 of their last 10 games.  Indiana on the other hand has now lost four of their last five after losing in Charlotte last night.

Washington beat Indiana by double digits on the road in mid-January which puts us in a nice situation here tonight.  The Pacers are just 1-11 ATS when revenging a straight up loss as a favorite this season.

Indiana has played a lot since the All-Star break, but they are only 5-13 ATS this season when playing their 8th game in two weeks.

Lot of factors point towards the Wizards tonight, so we will lay the 2 points.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa State +11

The Cyclones have been struggling recently, but I think they have a great shot at an upset against the Jayhawks on Satruday.  Iowa State has won 4 of the last 5 head-to-head as they seem to have their number.

Kansas has already secured the top spot in the Big 12, and are over-valued in this spot after winning their last 11 games, covering 10 of those 11.  In fact, the Jayhawks haven't lost since their trip to Ames where they were a one point underdog.  A 12-point swing from away to home is a little too much, and I think Iowa State is showing some excellent value here catching double digits.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Baylor -3

It's senior day for the Baylor Bears and I think they come out ready to play here against West Virginia.  We are in must win territory as a third loss in four games would probably drop them down to a six seed come tournament time.

West Virginia has played very good this season but the road has been more difficult for them.  Plus, they have won the last three games despite allowing Iowa State to shoot 51%, shooting only 36.5% against Oklahoma State, and giving up 56.1% shooting against Texas Tech.  

I think Baylor will be able to handle the press in front of the home crowd and come away with a victory here today.

Take Baylor

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Knicks/Celtics UNDER 210

The New York Knicks and Boston Celtics will play part in a defensive battle tonight.  That's what usually happens when these two teams get together, and looking at recent meetings, it's easy to see that this 210-point total has been inflated.

The Celtics are known for shutting teams down, and they rank 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency this season.  The Knicks prefer to play at a slow pace as they are 25th in the league as 95.9 possessions per game.  The Knicks are also just 21st in offensive efficiency.  They have been held to an average of 83.0 points per game in their last two, while the Celtics have allowed only 92.3 points/game in their last three.

The real key is the head-to-head history.  The Celtics and Knicks have combined for 209 or fewer points in 20 of the last 21 meetings, including 186 points in their most recent meeting on February 2nd.  That makes for a 20-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set of 210 points.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Toronto Raptors -5

The Toronto Raptors are playing better than anyone in the Eastern Conference right now.  They are 19-4 in their last 23 games overall and have their sights set on catching the Cleveland Cavaliers for the No. 1 seed in the East.

The Portland Trail Blazers are also playing well, but their recent run is more fools' gold than anything.  And now the Blazers are simply getting too much respect from oddsmakers.  I faded them against the Celtics in their last game, a 93-116 loss as 6.5-point underdogs.

I'll fade them again tonight because this remains a bad spot for the Blazers.  They are running on fumes right now as this will be their 6th road game in 9 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA.  They started showing signs of wearing down in the 2nd half against Boston, and it will carry over into this game tonight as well.

The Blazers are 2-13 ATS off three consecutive non-conference games over the last two seasons.  The Blazers are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Raptors are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games.  Bet the Raptors Friday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Northern Illinois -2.5

I have backed the Northern Illinois Huskies with plenty of success this season when playing at home.  I'll continue to do so tonight as they are only 2.5-point favorites over the Ball State Cardinals in a game that I believe they are going to run away with.

The Huskies have two huge reasons to be motivated.  First, it's their final home game of the season and Senior Night.  And second, they want revenge from a tough 59-63 loss at Ball State on February 19 just two weeks ago in their first meeting.  That was a rare loss in this series for NIU, which had won its previous four meetings with Ball State.

But the biggest reason to back Northern Illinois is the fact that it simply does not lose at home.  It is 16-1 SU & 10-2 ATS at home this season, outscoring the opposition by a whopping 15.2 points per game.  They have beaten several of the top teams in the MAC at home, including Akron, Ohio and Central Michigan.

The Huskies are 20-7-3 ATS in their last 30 home games.  Northern Illinois is 32-15-4 ATS in its last 49 games vs. MAC opponents.  The Huskies are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in the last six meetings.  The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet Northern Illinois Friday.

15* MVC Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Northern Iowa -5.5

The Northern Iowa Panthers are the hottest team in the Missouri Valley Conference right now.  They have gone 9-1 SU & 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall, which includes road wins over the two best teams in the conference in Wichita State and Evansville.  They are the team that nobody wants to play in the MVC Tournament.

But that's the poor fortune that the Southern Illinois Salukis are faced with Friday.  And with the way the Salukis are playing, they don't stand much of a chance.  They are 4-6 SU & 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Three of their wins came at home against three of the worst teams in the conference in Drake, Bradley and Missouri State.

This has been a pretty one-sided series with Northern Iowa winning three of the last four meetings.  They won by 16 at home, by 7 on the road, and by 9 at home in their three wins.  Their only loss came all the way back on January 2nd by a final of 75-73 on the road, or by a mere two points.  The Panthers are a much better team today than they were on January 2nd.

Northern Iowa is 9-1 ATS vs. good shooting teams that make 45% or more of their shots after 15-plus games over the last two seasons.  The Panthers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  UNI is 5-0 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  The Salukis are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  These four trends combine for a 27-2 system backing the Panthers.  Roll with Northern Iowa Friday.

15* Thunder/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 230

The books have set the bar way too high in this contest between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Golden State Warriors tonight.  I'll gladly take advantage and back the UNDER in what I believe will be way more of a defensive battle than the oddsmakers and the betting public are expecting.

The betting public looks at the last game between these teams on Saturday and sees a final score of 118-121 in favor of the Warriors for 239 combined points.  But you have to realize that game went to overtime, and it was tied 103-103 at the end of regulation for 206 combined points.  So this total should be set closer to 206 than 230.

Familiarity favors a low-scoring game, too, and since these teams just played five days ago, they are very familiar with one another.  Plus, Steph Curry and Andre Iguodala both may miss a 2nd consecutive game.  Without those two last time out, they were tied with the Hawks 97-97 at the end of regulation for 194 combined points before eventually winning 109-105 in overtime.

These two teams are forming quite a rivalry, which brings out the best in each defensively.  The Thunder do like to get up and down offensively, but they likely won't have a lot left in the tank to do so tonight.  That's because they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after losing 98-103 on the road to the Clippers last night for 201 combined points.

These teams have combined for 224 or fewer points at the end of regulation in five of their last six meetings.  That's why there is a ton of value with this UNDER 230.  Curry played and scored a ridiculous 46 points against the Thunder on Saturday, but even then that game was only at 206 at the end of regulation.  So even if Curry plays tonight, I still like this UNDER quite a bit.  If he doesn't, that's just an added bonus and and easy winner for us.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Dallas Mavericks -7

The Dallas Mavericks are playing their best basketball of the season coming into this game.  It helps that they are healthy, but they also made a very sneaky move before the trade deadline to grab David Lee, who has provided huge contributions off the bench already.

Dallas is averaging 117.5 points per game and shooting 47.6 percent over its last eight games.  The Mavericks have won three straight while scoring at least 121 points in four of their last five.  They are coming off a 27-point win over the Timberwolves and a 13-point win over the Magic.

Now they get to face the reeling Sacramento Kings, who have lost four straight to fall five games back of the final playoff spot in the West.  They have rarely been competitive as they've lost by 16, 10, 15 and 6 points despite playing three games at home.  This is a very tough spot for the Kings, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a valiant comeback in the second half came up short in a 98-104 loss at Memphis last night.

Dallas will be looking to extend the NBA's second-longest home winning streak against any franchise.  The Mavericks have won 22 straight home meetings with the Kings, and with the way they are playing right now, I look for that streak to extend to 23 tonight in blowout fashion.

The Kings are 0-9 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Sacramento is 1-8 ATS in its last nine road games.  The Mavericks are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  Dallas is 8-1 ATS in home games off a home win this season.  These four trends combine for a 29-2 system backing Dallas.  Take the Mavericks Thursday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on South Carolina -7

The South Carolina Gamecocks are actually dangerously close to the bubble of the NCAA Tournament in spite of their 23-6 record this season.  That's because they played a weak non-conference schedule, but I've seen enough from this team to know that they belong in the big dance.  But they cannot afford a home loss to Georgia tonight, so look for them to put their best foot forward here.

So the Gamecocks not only have NCAA Tournament motivation, they also will be motivated on for Senior Night and their final home game.  This veteran team has been through a lot with Frank Martin, and they certainly want to take care of business in their final game in Columbia.  That shouldn't be a problem considering they have one of the best home-court advantages in the country.

Indeed, South Carolina is 15-1 at home this season with its only loss to Kentucky.  A whopping 13 of those 15 wins have come by 9 points or more as well, which is why I'm not afraid to lay the 7 points here.  The Gamecocks also want revenge for a poor 56-69 loss at Georgia in their first meeting.  The last time these teams squared off in Columbia, the Gamecocks rolled to a 67-50 victory.

Conversely, Georgia is just 2-8 in true road games this season.  Its only two road wins this season have come against Missouri and Mississippi State, which are two of the worst teams in the SEC.  The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.

South Carolina is 7-0 ATS when revenging a loss vs. opponent as a favorite over the last two seasons.  The Gamecocks are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games.  South Carolina is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Gamecocks will simply be the more motivated team here playing to make the NCAA Tournament, on Senior Night, and with revenge in mind.  Bet South Carolina Thursday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE MONTH on Providence -3

The Providence Friars are extremely undervalued right now.  That's because they lost five of six games while putting themselves dangerously close to the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  But they rebounded with a 21-point win over DePaul last time out, and now I really love them as only 3-point home favorites over Creighton as this is clearly a shorter price than it should be.

It's Senior Night for the Friars, which will add to their motivation.  And at just 8-8 in Big East play, they really cannot afford another loss here.  Creighton pretty much played itself out of the NCAA Tournament discussion with back-to-back losses to Butler and Marquette prior to beating lowly St. John's last time out.

Providence clearly has Creighton's number, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with three of those victories coming away from home.  In their lone home meeting with the Bluejays during this 4-game winning streak, the Friars won 65-53 as 6-point favorites.  They are 12-4 at home this season, while the Bluejays are just 4-6 in true road games.

Providence is 13-2 ATS off two straight games committing 11 or fewer turnovers over the last two seasons.  The Friars are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Bet Providence Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Butler -4.5

The Butler Bulldogs are squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  In fact, Joe Lunardi has the Bulldogs listed as the second-to-last team on the "Last Four In" line.  It's safe to say that they cannot afford a home loss to Seton Hall tonight if they want to remain on the right side of the bubble.

The Bulldogs have played their way into the tournament by winning five of their last seven games overall with their only two losses coming to the top two teams in the Big East in Villanova and Xavier.  That includes an 81-75 road win at Seton Hall, and this has been a very one-sided series to say the least.  Indeed, the Bulldogs are 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings with the Pirates.

Seton Hall has played its way into the NCAA Tournament and now can afford to lose this game.  The Pirates have won four straight coming in, including a huge victory over then-No. 5 Xavier in their final home game of the season last time out on Sunday.  They are in a massive letdown spot off that big win.  They are also playing on just two days' rest, while Butler has had three days in between games to get ready.

The Bulldogs are 11-3 at home this season.  Butler is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall.  Plays against road teams as an underdog or pick (SETON HALL) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite against opponent off an road win scoring 85 or more points are 88-45 (66.2%) ATS since 1997.  Take Butler Wednesday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Boston Celtics -5.5

This play is as much of a fade of the Blazers as it is a play on the Celtics.  This couldn't be a worse spot for the Blazers, and the Celtics are playing some great basketball heading in.  It's the perfect storm and the reason I believe Boston should be a bigger favorite tonight.

The Celtics have won three straight and are now 14-4 in their last 18 games overall.  They are clearly one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference because of their defense, ranking 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency.  I love this matchup for the Celtics because of Avery Bradley and Marcus Smart, two of the best guard defenders in the NBA as they'll be matched up with the duo of Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum.

Look for Bradley and Smart to take this matchup personal in shutting down Lillard and McCollum.  Their job will be much easier tonight considering the Blazers are running on fumes.  Indeed, they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th road game in 5 days.  That's about as tough a situation as you'll find in the NBA, and there's no question the Blazers are primed for one of their worst performances in a long time because of it.

Boston is 20-10 at home this season.  The Celtics are 12-3 ATS when the total is 210 or more this season.  The Blazers are 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Boston is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games.  Portland is 6-14 ATS in the last 20 meetings.

The Celtics are 9-0 ATS vs. teams who win 51% to 60% of their games in the 2nd half of the season over the last two seasons.  Boston is 7-0 ATS vs. teams who score 103-plus points per game this season.  The Celtics are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record.  These three trends combine for a perfect 21-0 system backing Boston.  Bet the Celtics Wednesday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Ole Miss -3.5

The Ole Miss Rebels still have an outside shot of making the NCAA Tournament.  At 18-11 overall and 8-8 in SEC play, if they win their final two games of the regular season, they''ll be back in the discussion.  So they certainly won't be lacking any motivation tonight, not to mention the fact that it's their big rival in Mississippi State coming to Oxford.

The Rebels want revenge from a 77-83 road loss at Mississippi State in their first meeting this season.  They should have no problem getting it in a big way considering the Rebels are 11-2 at home this season.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 9-1 SU in the last 10 meetings.  Ole Miss is 4-0 in its last four home meetings with Mississippi State, winning by 6, 19, 18 and 7 points.

The Bulldogs are more overvalued right now than they have been at any other point this season.  That's because they have gone a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall, and they are coming off an upset win over South Carolina last time out.  But consider that Mississippi State is just 2-8 in true road games this season, and it's clear to see that they should be catching more than 3.5 points tonight.

The Rebels are 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 games following a straight up loss.  The home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Ole Miss is 25-9 ATS in its last 34 Wednesday home games.  The Rebels are 32-16 ATS in their last 48 games off a loss by 10 points or more.  Roll with Ole Miss Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Dallas Mavericks -5.5

The Dallas Mavericks are back on track with wins in three of their last four games with two coming via blowout by 26 and 27 points.  Now they get to face another weak team from the Eastern Conference tonight and should take care of business.

The Mavs have averaged 120.5 points per game in their last four contests.  Chandler Parsons is playing is best basketball of the season, and David Lee has proven to be a huge acquisition as he has brought a lot of scoring punch off the bench.  This team is really hitting its stride right now.

The Mavs will be out for revenge from a 104-110 overtime loss at Orlando on February 19 in their first game back from the All-Star Break.  That was an extremely rare loss for Dallas in this series.  Indeed, the Mavericks were 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in their previous seven meetings with the Magic.

The Magic are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  The Mavericks are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  Dallas is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 home games.  The favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Take the Mavericks Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Georgia Tech +13

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are making a late push to try and make the NCAA Tournament.  They have won five of their last six games overall coming into this one, and a road victory at Louisville would certainly help matters.  They are simply catching too many points here in a game that I believe will come down to the wire.

Since joining the ACC, Louisville has won both meetings with Georgia Tech by a combined 5 points.  That includes a 75-71 road win on January 23 in their first meeting this season.  But now the Yellow Jackets will be out for revenge, and they certainly have a lot more to play for considering the postseason ban for Louisville.

Senior guard Marcus Georges-Hunt has averaged 23.5 points on 63.6 percent shooting during the Yellow Jackets' four-game winning streak.  "He's going to have to play at the high level he's been playing at," coach Brian Gregory said of Georges-Hunt. "At the same time we need Adam (Smith) to play well, and we need our bigs to play well. Both times we've played Louisville, it's come down to a possession game, and they have playmakers."

Georgia Tech is 8-1 ATS versus teams who outrebound their opponents by 4-plus boards per game this season.  Louisville is 1-8 ATS vs. teams who win 51% to 60% of their games over the last two seasons.  The Cardinals are 0-7 ATS off one or more consecutive overs this season.  The Yellow Jackets are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Roll with Georgia Tech Tuesday.

25* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Bulls/Heat UNDER 201

The Chicago Bulls and Miami Heat will take part in a defensive battle tonight in Miami.  These teams are known for their defense, and they are also known to play in low-scoring affairs almost every time they get together.

Miami ranks 6th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, allowing just 100.2 points per 100 possessions.  Chicago ranks 10th in defensive efficiency while giving up just 43.2% shooting on the season.  The Heat rank 27th in pace this season as well, so they prefer to play at a slow tempo, which helps out their defense.

The UNDER is 6-0 in the last six meetings.  The Bulls and Heat have combined for 194 or fewer points in seven consecutive meetings.  They have averages just 176.4 combined points per game in their last seven meetings, which is roughly 25 points less than tonight's posted total of 201.

The UNDER is 4-0 in Bulls last four road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Heat last six vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Heat last four home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Combine these three trends with the UNDER being 6-0 in the last six meetings, and we have a perfect 20-0 system backing the UNDER tonight.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* Kansas/Texas ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Texas +3

The Texas Longhorns have been dominant at home all season.  They are 14-2 at home this year, and now we are getting them as home underdogs to the Kansas Jayhawks tonight.  We'll take the points in a game I fully expect them to win outright.

Texas is 4-1 at home against ranked teams this season with wins over West Virginia, North Carolina, Oklahoma and Iowa State.  After beating No. 3 Oklahoma handily 76-63 on Saturday, they are looking to become the first team since Kansas (2008) to beat a pair of top-three opponents in back-to-back games.

Adding to the motivation for the Longhorns is the fact that this is Senior Night and will be their final home game.  Also adding to their hunger is the fact that they blew a 35-30 halftime lead at Kansas to lose 76-67 in their first meeting.  But now they get the Jayhawks at home and will be seeking revenge.

I simply do not expect Kansas to show up.  The Jayhawks clinched at least a share of their ridiculous 12th straight Big 12 regular season title with their 67-58 home win over Texas Tech on Saturday.  After accomplishing that goal, the Jayhawks will fall flat tonight as they play with a sense of relief.  Sure, they could wrap up the outright title with a win, but they can also do that at home against Iowa State in their next game.  This is far from a must-win for the Jayhawks.

Texas is 7-0 ATS when playing against a team that wins more than 80% of their games after 15 or more games this season.  The Longhorns are 8-0 ATS vs. teams who outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game after 15-plus games over the last two seasons.  Texas is 7-0 ATS when revenging a loss vs. opponent this season.  These three trends combine for a perfect 22-0 system backing the Longhorns.  Bet Texas Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Jazz/Celtics UNDER 204.5

The Boston Celtics and Utah Jazz are very familiar with one another after recently playing their first of two meetings this season. The Jazz won that game 111-93 for 204 combined points on February 19 behind one of their best shooting efforts of the season as they connected on 54.4% from the floor.  That's not going to happen again, especially not in Boston this time around.

The fact of the matter is that this is a very high total between two teams that pride themselves on defense.  Boston ranks 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, while Utah gives up just 98.1 points per game on 44.7% shooting.  The Jazz take the air out of the ball offensively, ranking 30th in the NBA in pace at 93.3 possessions per game.

The Jazz and Celtics have combined for 204 or fewer points at the end of regulation in seven of their last eight meetings.  They have combined to average 189.4 points per game in those eight meetings, which is roughly 15 points less than tonight's posted total of 204.5.

The UNDER is 12-3 in Jazz last 15 vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents.  The UNDER is 15-7-1 in Jazz last 23 games when playing on 1 days' rest.  The UNDER is 3-0-1 in the last four meetings in Boston.  Utah is 28-14 to the UNDER after playing a game as a home favorite over the last two seasons.  Take the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Heat/Knicks UNDER 198.5

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Miami Heat and New York Knicks.  I fully expect a defensive battle, which has certainly been the case when these teams have gotten together in recent history.  That should continue Sunday.

Miami has made its living on defense, ranking 6th in the NBA in defensive efficiency this season.  The Knicks, who rank 18th in offensive efficiency, will certainly struggle in this one.  Both teams also prefer to play at a slow pace and take the air out of the ball.  The Heat rank 28th in pace at 95.2 possessions per game, while the Knicks are 25th at 95.9 possessions per contest.

Back to the head-to-head history.  The Heat and Knicks have combined for 198 or fewer points in four consecutive meetings.  They have combined for 188, 175 and 173 points in their last three meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 178.7 combined points per game, which is roughly 20 points less than tonight's posted total of 198.5.

Miami is 11-2 UNDER when revenging a straight up loss to an opponent as a favorite this season.  Miami is 19-7 to the UNDER in its last 26 Sunday games.  The Heat are 18-4 UNDER versus good ball handling teams who commit 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  The Heat are 14-3 UNDER versus poor pressure defensive teams who force 14 or fewer turnovers this season.

The UNDER is 39-18-1 in Heat last 58 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 19-6-1 in Knicks last 26 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The UNDER is 11-1 in the last 12 meetings in New York.  The UNDER is 18-7-1 in the last 26 meetings overall.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Wake Forest -2

It's Senior Day for Wake Forest, so it's safe to say that the Demon Deacons are going to show up in their final home game against Virginia Tech Sunday.  I look for a big effort from them for a number of reasons, not the least of which is Senior Day.

Leading scorer, rebounder and shot blocker Devin Thomas (15.8 ppg, 10.2 rpg, 1.6 bpg) will be making his return from a 2-game suspension.  The Demon Deacons were playing well before he got suspended, and then they actually played respectable without him for two games, which will help them going forward.

They only lost by 5 at Georgia Tech, by 11 at NC State and by 5 (OT) at Pitt in three straight games before the Thomas suspension.  They them blew out Boston College 74-48 in their first game without him at home before losing to ranked Notre Dame by 11 at home.

Another reason I expect a big effort from the Demon Deacons is the fact that they'll want revenge from a tough 91-93 road loss at Virginia Tech in their first meeting on January 13.  The Hokies are riding high off rare back-to-back wins over Florida State and Boston College, and they are ripe for the picking here.  They clearly won't want this game as much as the Demon Deacons.

VA Tech is 8-21 ATS in its last 29 road games with a line of +3 to -3.  The Hokies are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The Demon Deacons are 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 Sunday games.  The emon Deacons are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games following a double-digit loss at home.  Bet Wake Forest Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Night Line Mistake on Detroit Pistons +1

The Detroit Pistons should not be home underdogs to the Toronto Raptors tonight.  They are playing very well coming into this game, and this is an awful spot for the Raptors as well.

The Pistons are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They went on the road and beat Cleveland and Milwaukee by a combined 19 points, while also topping Philadelphia by 20 points at home.  They are clearly making a run at the playoffs right now and aren't about to be denied.

The Raptors are way overvalued right now.  They have won four in a row coming in, but they are in a massive letdown spot here tonight.  They are coming off a huge 99-97 home win over Cleveland in which Kyle Lowry hit a game-winner at the buzzer.  Now, I fully expect the Raptors to fail to show up tonight off such a big win against the top team in the East.

Plays on any team (DETROIT) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more against opponent off an upset win as a home underdog are 73-37 (66.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Pistons are 24-11-1 ATS in their last 36 home games.  Also, the Raptors could be without leading scorer DeMar DeRozan (23.2 ppg), who missed Saturday's practice due to an illness.  Take the Pistons Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Illinois-Chicago +17.5

The betting public wants nothing to do with a team that is just 5-23 on the season like Illinois-Chicago.  That alone has provided some nice line value as the oddsmakers know this fact, but there are several reasons to like the Flames against the 18-12 Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers today.

The biggest reason is that this is a huge letdown/hangover spot for the Panthers.  They are coming off a devastating 76-80 (OT) home loss to Horizon League champ Valparaiso.  They really put a lot into that game, and there's no way they are going to be able to come back and match the intensity they played with against Valpo.

That's especially the case considering Milwaukee already beat Illinois-Chicago 87-62 at home in an absolute laugher. But that's going to place the Flames in revenge mode here.  And boy have they been a money-printing machine in these spots.  Indeed, Illinois-Chicago is 7-1 ATS revenging a same season loss vs. opponent this season.  It is only getting outscored by 6.0 points per game in this spot.

Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series.  In fact, the road team is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Illinois-Chicago only lost by 6 as 7.5-point dogs and actually won outright by 22 as 8-point dogs in its last two visits to Milwaukee.  The Panthers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games.  The Flames are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Take Illinois-Chicago Sunday.

15* Xavier/Seton Hall Big East No-Brainer on Seton Hall +2

The Seton Hall Pirates are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They have clearly built up a tremendous resume to make the NCAA Tournament with their 20-7 record this season, which includes a 12-3 mark in home games.  They will add another big win Sunday against Xavier at home.

This is an awful spot for Xavier.  The Musketeers are coming off their biggest win of the season, defeating No. 1 Villanova 90-83 at home on Wednesday.  There is no way they are going to be able to show up after such a big win like that, and I fully expect them to suffer a letdown here.

That has happened quite a bit recently at Seton Hall.  The home team is a perfect 4-0 SU in the last four meetings.  Seton Hall won 90-82 as 2-point home dogs to Xavier last season and 71-62 as a pick 'em two seasons ago.  The Pirates will clearly be out for revenge from a 76-84 road loss to Xavier on January 23 in their first meeting this season, too, so they'll be the more motivated, focused team in this one.

The Pirates have really been undervalued all season, especially here of late.  They are 7-1 SU in thier last eight games overall, and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 contests.  They lost by just 1 point at home to Villanova earlier this season to show what they are capable of at home.

Seton Hall is 9-1 ATS as an underdog this season.  The Pirates are 10-1 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more over the last two seasons.  Seton Hall is 9-2 ATS when revenging a loss vs. opponent this season.  The Pirates are 7-0 ATS after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game over the last two seasons.  The Pirates are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  These five trends combine for a 41-4 system backing the Pirates.  Roll with Seton Hall Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Heat/Celtics UNDER 211.5

The scoring in the NBA is up of late, which is going to provide some nice line value on the UNDERS.  This game between the Celtics and Heat particularly stands out because these are two of the best defensive teams in the NBA, yet the total has been set at 211.5.

Boston ranks 5th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 100.2 points per 100 possessions.  Miami is right behind at 6th, giving up 100.5 points per 100 possessions.  While the Celtics prefer a fast pace, that is countered by the Heat, who rank 28th in the league in pace at 95.2 possessions per game.

The real key here is the head-to-head history between these teams.  Miami and Boston typically play in low-scoring games.  Indeed, they have combined for 200 or fewer points in seven straight meetings.  They have combined for 200, 179, 190, 158, 184, 197 and 179 points in their last seven meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 183.9 combined points per game, which is roughly 28 points less than today's posted total of 211.5.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Louisville/Miami ACC ANNIHILATOR on Miami -3.5

At 11-4 in ACC play, the Miami Hurricanes are just one game back of the North Carolina Tar Heels for 1st place in the conference.  Look for them to continue pursuing at least a share of the league title with a big home win over the Louisville Cardinals today.

Miami is coming off a big home win over Virginia, and it has now won 9 of its last 11 games overall.  The Hurricanes simply do not lose at home as they are 4-1 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 13.1 points per game.  They are 8-0 at home in ACC play with six of those wins coming by 9 points or more.

Louisville is still playing out the string despite its NCAA Tournament ban.  But this team is just 4-5 in true road games this season, and I just don't trust them to match the effort of the Hurricanes in this one, who simply want it more right now.  This veteran Hurricanes bunch also wants revenge from two losses to Louisville by a combined 10 points last year.

Matchup wise, Miami has arguably the best trio of guards in the country who will be able to beat Louisville's press for easy scores all game.  That guard play has led to only 11 turnovers per game for the Hurricanes as well, so they aren't going to give up the same easy baskets that Louisville is accustomed to with turnovers.

The Cardinals are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games.  The Hurricanes are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 home games.  Louisville is 0-7 ATS in road games after having won five or six of its last seven games this season.  Miami is 6-0 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last two seasons.  The Hurricanes are 6-0 ATS in home games after playing a home game this season.  These last three trends combine for a perfect 19-0 system backing the Hurricanes.  Roll with Miami Saturday.

15* Arizona/Utah ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 144.5

I rarely take college basketball totals, but this one really stood out to me.  Oddsmakers have set the bar way too high in this Arizona/Utah game today, and we'll take advantage in what will be a low-scoring affair.

Arizona allows 68.2 points per game on 41.4% shooting against opponents that average 74.8 points on 43.9% shooting this season.  Utah gives up 68.8 points and 41.2% shooting against opponents that average 74.5 points and 43.9% shooting, so these are two elite defensive teams.

Stakes are high right now as both teams are within one game of the Pac-12 regular season title, so that will add to the defensive intensity in this one.  But the intensity is always high when these two get together, and it favors the defenses.

Arizona and Utah have combined for 120, 120, 110, 112, 121, 132, 127, 131 and 128 points in their last nine meetings at the end of regulation, respectively.  As you can see, they have not combined for more than 132 points in any of those nine meetings.  They've averaged 122.3 combined points per game in those nine contests, which is roughly 22 points less than today's posted total of 144.5.

Utah is 15-5 to the UNDER when the total is 140 to 149.5 points over the last three seasons.  The Utes are 8-0 to the UNDER vs. great teams who outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game after 15-plus games over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 38-15 in Wildcats last 53 Saturday games.  The UNDER is 4-0-1 in the last five meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

25* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR on Syracuse -5

Off back-to-back losses, the Syracuse Orange find themselves squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  Now they need to win today or they would likely be on the outside looking in.  It's safe to say that they are going to lay it all on the line to get a victory as a result.

The Orange are 12-4 at home this season, including 5-1 in their last six conference home games.  They now get to take on an NC State team that has won just three true road games all season, posting a 3-6 record in them.

NC State has very little to play for at 14-14 on the season.  It is in a big hangover spot here from a 68-80 home loss to rival North Carolina, and it will have a hard time getting up to face the Orange as a result.

I also like this matchup for the Orange, who force opponents to make 3-pointers to beat them with their zone defense.  Well, the Wolfpack only average 6 made 3-pointers per game on 34.1% shooting.  That makes this a very bad matchup for them.

Syracuse is 9-0 ATS when playing with 5 or 6 days of rest over the last 3 seasons.  It last played on February 20, while NC State last played on February 24.  That rest and preparation advantage will also be key to the Orange getting this much-needed win and cover.  Bet Syracuse Saturday.

20* Missouri Valley GAME OF THE MONTH on Evansville -4

At 12-5 in Missouri Valley play this season, Evansville needs a victory today to lock up the No. 2 seed in the conference tournament as it is tied with Illinois State (12-5).  That motivation, plus the fact that it's Senior Day for this veteran bunch, will have the Purple Aces coming through with a big performance today against Northern Iowa.

Evansville has one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the country.  It is 13-2 at home this season, outscoring opponents by nearly 15 points per game in the process.  But it is undervalued right now due to going just 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games overall, which is why it's only a 4-point favorite.

Meanwhile, Northern Iowa is way overvalued right now due to going 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games overall.  But at 10-7 in league play, the Panthers can't improve their standings much.  They beat Evansville by 3 at home in their first meeting this season, which places the Purple Aces in revenge mode.

The home team is 4-0 SU in the last four meetings.  The home team is 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  The Panthers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Northern Iowa is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 road games overall.  Take Evansville Saturday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Dallas Mavericks -5

The Dallas Mavericks get the call as my favorite play in the Western Conference for the entire month of February on Friday night.  They host the Denver Nuggets and will be highly motivated for a victory here.

That's because the Mavericks have lost three of their last four games overall.  But they are well-rested and ready to go here as this will be just their 2nd game in 5 days.  Look for that extra rest to have them putting fourth one of their best efforts of the season.

Denver, meanwhile, is in a huge letdown spot off its 87-81 upset road win over the Clippers as 11-point dogs.  This will be the 3rd game in 4 days for the Nuggets, who had lost three straight prior to that unlikely victory.

Dallas is 3-0 in its last three home meetings with Denver, winning by 11, 8 and 16 points, respectively.  Plays on any team (DALLAS) - an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) against a poor team (-3 to -7 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after scoring 100 points or more four straight games are 27-9 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Mavericks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.   Dallas is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. a team with a winning percentage of less than .400.  Bet the Mavericks Friday.

15* Bulls/Hawks ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Atlanta -7

The Atlanta Hawks have lost three straight and five of their last six games overall.  It's safe to say that they will be highly motivated for a victory when the Chicago Bulls visit tonight on the ESPN stage.

The one victory for the Hawks during this stretch was a 113-90 blowout at Chicago as 4-point favorites.  In fact, the Hawks have had the Bulls' number quite a bit here of late.  The Hawks are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Bulls with all four victories coming by 7 points or more.

Conversely, Chicago comes in overvalued due to having won three straight games, all of which came at home.  But the Bulls 1-6 in their last seven road games with their only win coming against the Kings.  Five of those six road losses came by 7 points or more, so they've rarely been competitive away from home.

The Bulls are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Chicago is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games when playing on 1 days' rest.  The Hawks come in on 3 days' rest.  Atlanta is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games following a double-digit home loss.  The favorite is 37-15 ATS in the last 52 meetings.  Take the Hawks Friday.

15* CBB Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on Santa Clara +17

The St. Mary's Gaels are in a massive letdown spot tonight at home against the Santa Clara Broncos.  As a result, the Gaels should not be laying 17 points to the Broncos in this one, and we'll take advantage and back the heavy underdogs here.

St. Mary's is coming off the season sweep of Gonzaga for the first time in forever.  The Gaels beat the Bulldogs 63-58 on the road last time out, and now it's only human nature for them to not bring the same intensity into this game that they did that night against Gonzaga.

Santa Clara has only lost one of its last 11 games by more than 17 points, so it has been very competitive, going 5-6 SU & 6-5 ATS in its last 11 games overall.  It is 12-6 ATS in its last 18 visits to St. Mary's as well.  The Broncos are 9-4 ATS in all road games this season.

St. Mary's has been overvalued for quite some time now, going just 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games overall.  The Gaels haven't won any of their last 11 games by more than 17 points, making for an 11-0 system backing the Broncos.  Santa Clara is 6-0 ATS revenging a home loss vs. opponent this season.  The Gaels are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.  These last three trends combine for a perfect 22-0 system backing the Broncos.  Take Santa Clara Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Bucks/Celtics UNDER 216

The books have set the bar too high in this game between the Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks.  It's easy to see that this total has been inflated, and we'll take advantage and back the UNDER in what should be a much lower-scoring affair than oddsmakers anticipate.

Both teams are coming off high-scoring games, which has forced the oddsmakers' hands.  The Celtics have combined for 222 and 246 points in their last two games with the Nuggets and Timberwolves, while the Bucks have combined for 209 and 226 points in their last two games against the Hawks and Lakers.

Off a loss to the Timberwolves, look for the Celtics to focus on shoring up their defense tonight.  They still rank 5th in the NBA in defensive efficiency.  They should shut down a Milwaukee team that ranks 24th in offensive efficiency.  The Bucks prefer to play as a slow pace as they rank 22nd in pace at 96.5 possessions per game.

This has been the highest total we've seen in this series in a very long time as the previous high in recent memory was 208.  The Celtics and Bucks have combined for 214 or fewer points in 36 of their last 37 meetings, making for a 36-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this total set of 216.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Penn State -1

The Penn State Nittany Lions are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They have won three of their last four games overall, including upset home wins over Indiana as 9-point dogs and Iowa as 9-point dogs.  Those are two of the best teams in the Big Ten.

The one loss during this stretch was a 54-70 defeat at Nebraska on February 13th.  Now, less than two weeks later, the Nittany Lions are going to want some revenge on the Cornhuskers.  I expect them to get it at home this time around.

Penn State is 9-3 at home this season.  Nebraska is 3-6 in true road games this year.  The home team is a perfect 5-0 straight up in the last five meetings, including wins by 13 and 4 points for the Nittany Lions in the last two meetings at Penn State.

The Cornhuskers are 15-36-1 ATS in their last 52 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Nebraska is 6-13-1 ATS in its last 20 road games overall.  The Nittany Lions are 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games.  The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet Penn State Thursday.

20* Mountain West GAME OF THE MONTH on Air Force +11

The Air Force Falcons are playing their best basketball of the season coming into this game.  Yet, they continue to get overlooked by oddsmakers and the betting public as massive 11-point road underdogs to the Fresno State Bulldogs.

The Falcons are 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They have upset wins as underdogs over Wyoming, Boise State, UNLV and New Mexico.  They also covered as 18-point road underdogs in a 9-point loss at San Diego State, which is the best team in the Mountain West.

Fresno State has a good record at 18-9, but it has been very fortunate in close games.  In fact, the Bulldogs haven't beaten anyone by more than 11 points in any of their last 11 games.  That includes a 1-point win as 6-point road favorites at Air Force in their first meeting, which places the Falcons in revenge mode here.

This has been a very closely-contested series as each of the last three meetings have been decided by a combined 5 points with the Bulldogs winning them all, only fueling the fire of the Falcons even more.  The Falcons are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Combine these two trends with the fact that Fresno State hasn't won by more than 11 in 11 straight games, and we have a 21-0 system backing the Falcons.  Bet Air Force Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on South Carolina -7.5

The South Carolina Gamecocks should be bigger favorites at home tonight against the Tennessee Volunteers.  This has been a common theme all season as the Gamecocks have consistently been undervalued at home time and time again.

Indeed, South Carolina is 14-1 SU & 9-3 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 11.5 points per game.  Its only home loss all season came to Kentucky, which is the best team in the SEC.

Tennessee has been great at home but awful on the road.  The Vols are 1-12 in all road games this season with a 1-9 record in true road games an an 0-3 mark in neutral site contests.  They have lost by double-digits in four straight road games with a 10-point loss at Kentucky, an 11-point loss at Missouri, an 18-point loss at Arkansas, and a 12-point loss at TCU.

Making matters more difficult on the Volunteers is the fact that leading scorer Kevin Punter is doubtful with a stress fracture in his foot.  Punter leads the team at 22.2 points per game and would be a huge loss considering how much they rely on him.  Even if he plays, I still expect the Gamecocks to get the job done.

Tennessee is 1-8 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last two seasons.  The Volunteers are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up win.  The Gamecocks are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games.  Roll with South Carolina Wednesday.

15* Wizards/Bulls ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 213

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Wizards and Bulls tonight.  For starters, this game will be nationally televised on ESPN, so both teams are going to bring their "A" games defensively.

Recent head-to-head history also suggests that this total has been inflated.  26 of the last 27 meetings between the Wizards and Bulls have seen 204 or fewer combined points.  That makes for a 26-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this total set of 213, which is by far the biggest total in this series in quite some time.

The Wizards are a tired team who will be playing their 5th game in 7 days.  That will prevent them from looking to fast break much at all.  The Wizards have made an emphasis on defense of late, limiting their last five opponents to just 95.4 points per game and 42.4% shooting.

Chicago is 11-2 to the UNDER off a home win scoring 110 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Bulls are 26-10 to the UNDER when playing 4 or less games in 10 days over the last two years.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* Villanova/Xavier Big East ANNIHILATOR on Xavier +1.5

The Xavier Musketeers mean business tonight.  They're out to prove that they can beat the elite, and they'll do just that by upsetting No. 1 Villanova at home.  Look for their biggest effort of the season here folks.

Xavier was embarrassed 64-95 at Villanova in their first meeting this season, when Edmond Sumner fell hard in the early minutes and had to be taken to the hospital.  The Musketeers never recovered.  The Musketeers also blew a 40-33 halftime lead over Villanova last year at home, which doesn't sit well with them.

''Losing Edmond did a lot for us,'' Farr said. ''But you know, we pride ourselves on being a deep team. We got challenged and we didn't answer the challenge at Villanova. It's going to be a different story tomorrow. Tomorrow is a players game - who wants it more? So we'll be ready.''

Xavier is 13-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 14.1 points per game.  Xavier is 9-0 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less, or as an underdog, over the last three seasons.  The Musketeers are 8-0 ATS off three straight wins by 10 points or more this season.  These three trends combine for a 30-1 system backing the Musketeers.  Take Xavier Wednesday.

15* Michigan State/Ohio State ESPN No-Brainer on Ohio State +6

The Ohio State Buckeyes have played themselves back into contention for the NCAA Tournament by playing their best basketball of the season here down the stretch.  A win over Michigan State tonight would be just what the doctor ordered and probably push them into the field of 68.

The Buckeyes currently sit at 18-10 on the season and 10-5 within the conference.  They have won four straight games coming in.  The Buckeyes are 13-4 at home this season, including 6-1 at home in Big Ten play with their only loss coming to Maryland by 5 points.  Three of their four home losses this season have come by 6 points or less.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team is a perfect 5-0 SU in the last five meetings.  Plus, these games always seem to come down to the wire as the Spartans and Buckeyes have played nine straight games decided by 9 points or less, including seven by 4 points or fewer.

Ohio State is 7-1 ATS in home games with a total set of 135 to 139.5 points this season.  The Buckeyes are 35-17-2 ATS in their last 54 Tuesday games.  The Buckeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games overall.  Take Ohio State Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Washington Wizards -4.5

The Washington Wizards are showing excellent value as only 4.5-point home favorites over the hapless New Orleans Pelicans.  Look for them to pick up this victory by 5-plus points to cover this low spread tonight.

Washington is on a mission post-All Star Break.  At 25-29 on the season, it still has work to do just to make the playoffs.  The Wizards have won two of three since the break despite playing a brutal stretch of three games in three days.  They beat the Jazz by 14 and the Pistons by 12 at home before running out of gas and losing at Miami.

But now the Wizards have had two days off since and will be well-rested and ready to get back to dominating at home tonight, where they've won three straight by double-digits.  They  have shot 49.2 percent while holding opponents to an average of 89.7 points on 41.9 percent shooting in their last three at home.

The Pelicans are in a letdown spot off Anthony Davis' 59-point performance in an upset road win at Detroit.  New Orleans is 3-13 ATS in road games off an upset win as an underdog over the last three seasons.  The Pelicans are also 1-9 ATS in road games off a road win over the last two years.  Washington is 5-0 ATS in its last five games playing on two days' rest.  The Pelicans are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 vs. Eastern Conference.  Washington is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 games following an ATS loss.  Roll with the Wizards Tuesday.

20* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Davidson -3.5

The Davidson Wildcats still have an outside shot of making the NCAA Tournament, but they need a big finish to do so.  A win over Rhode Island tonight would certainly help, and I look for them to get it at home, where they have been dominant all season.

Indeed, Davidson is 13-1 at home this season.   It is coming off a win over arguably the best team in the the conference in Saint Joseph's to boost its resume.  It has won four of its last five games overall with its only loss coming by a single point on the road.

Rhode Island has lost four of its last seven games coming in.  Like Davidson, the Rams are tremendous at home, but awful on the road.  Indeed, Rhode Island is just 2-7 in true road games this season.  It is getting too much respect from oddsmakers as only 3.5-point road dogs here.

Rhode Island is 2-9 ATS as a road underdog over the last two seasons.  The Rams are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Rhode Island is 5-15-1 ATS in its last 21 road games overall.  The Rams are 3-10-2 ATS in their last 15 games following a straight up win.  The Wildcats are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 Tuesday games.  Bet Davidson Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -4.5

The Boston Celtics have gone 11-3 SU & 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  I look for them to continue to roll tonight against the Minnesota Timberwolves after winning by 20 in Denver last night.

The Timberwolves are one of the worst teams in the Western Conference this season.  They are 17-39 overall and 9-20 in home games.  They have lost their first two games out of the break with a 5-point loss at short-handed Memphis, and an 8-point loss at home to the lowly Knicks.

Boston beat Minnesota 113-99 in their first meeting this season.  Minnesota is 2-11 ATS in home games revenging a road loss vs. opponent this season.  Boston is 15-1 ATS when playing its 2nd road games in 2 days over the last three seasons.  The Celtics are 7-0 ATS in road games when the total is at least 210 points this season.  Roll with the Celtics Monday.

15* Virginia/Miami ESPN No-Brainer on Miami -1

The Miami Hurricanes come into this game undervalued as only 1-point home favorites over the Virginia Cavaliers.  Their 71-96 loss at North Carolina over the weekend has a lot to do with it, but keep in mind that they had won eight of their previous nine games prior.

Virginia comes in overvalued due to having won eight of its last nine games overall with its only loss coming on a buzzer-beater at Duke.  While this team is playing very well, it should be catching more than just one point on the road at Miami today.

After all, the Hurricanes are 13-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 13.7 points per game.  All five of Virginia's losses this season have come on the road.  Miami wants revenge from a 58-66 road loss at Virginia int heir first meeting this season as well.

Miami is 19-9-1 ATS in its last 29 games overall.  The Hurricanes are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 home games.  Miami is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after allowing more than 90 points in its previous game.  Take Miami Monday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas +1.5

The Texas Longhorns come in undervalued due to losing three of their last four games overall.  Two were understandable as they came on the road at Iowa State and Oklahoma, but a bad loss at home to Baylor last time out by 14 points is what has them undervalued.

Shaka Smart's team has been very resilient.  After a mediocre start to the season, they proceeded to win seven out of eight games in the middle of their Big 12 schedule.  Now, after losing three of four, I look for that resiliency to come through here today with a big road win over Kansas State.

Kansas State is just 15-12 on the season and 4-10 in conference games.  While the Wildcats have been good at home, I expect them to suffer a hangover from their 63-72 home loss to rival Kansas over the weekend.  They won't possibly be as motivated for this game as they were against the Jayhawks.

Texas is 7-0 ATS in road games after playing two consecutive home games over the last two seasons.  The Longhorns are 6-0 ATS in road games when playing their 2nd game in 3 days over the last two seasons.  These two trends combine for a perfect 13-0 system backing the Longhorns.  Bet Texas Monday.

20* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on USC -1.5

This one is about as easy as it gets today folks.  It's as simple as the fact that the USC Trojans are 15-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 17 points per game.  They are also 11-3-1 ATS at home this season.  They essentially just have to win the game to cover this 1.5-point spread, too.

The Utah Utes are way overvalued right now due to winning three straight, including a 2-point win at UCLA last time out.  But they're not about to escape USC with a victory.  After all, the Trojans have beaten Arizona among others at home this season.

The Trojans are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 home games.  The Trojans are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  USC is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games following an ATS loss.  The Utes are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet USC Sunday.

15* Cavs/Thunder ABC Sunday No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -2.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder have one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA.  Rarely will you get the opportunity to back them as only 2.5-point home favorites, but that's the opportunity we are presented with Sunday.

The Thunder are 25-6 at home this season, outscoring opponents by nearly 10 points per game.  They are coming off a rare home loss to the Indiana Pacers.  That was also their first and only game back from the All-Star Break, so they'll be extra motivated for their first win of the second half today.

Home-court advantage has been big in this series too as the home team is 3-0 in the last three meetings, including a 103-94 victory by the Thunder in their last home meeting.  Cleveland is 0-8 ATS in road games after scoring 105 points or more 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons.  Take the Thunder Sunday.

15* St. Mary's/Gonzaga ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on Gonzaga -6.5

The Gonzaga Bulldogs are squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble right now and really need this win over St. Mary's to get in the field with an at-large berth.  I look for them to take care of business in a big way at home tonight.

For starters, Gonzaga is going to be out for revenge after blowing a big late lead and losing 67-70 at St. Mary's in their first meeting this season on January 21st.  The Bulldogs are 11-3 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 20.4 points per game, so revenge shouldn't be a problem.

St. Mary's is not playing well at all coming into this game.  The Gaels are just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games overall, having lost by 11 at BYU and by 6 at home to Pepperdine recently.  Their last two wins have come over lowly Loyola-Marymount and Portland by a combined 8 points despite being a combined 27-point favorite in those two contests.

Gonzaga is 18-1 SU in its last 19 home meetings with St. Mary's, and 7-1 SU & 8-0 ATS in its last eight meetings with the Gaels overall.  The one-sided nature of this series should continue as the Bulldogs have their revenge in a big way at home tonight.  Take Gonzaga Saturday.

20* American Athletic GAME OF THE MONTH on Cincinnati -2.5

The Cincinnati Bearcats and UConn Huskies are both squarely on the bubble right now.  But I'll side with the home team in this one as the Bearcats should take care of business at this generous price of -2.5 today.

Cincinnati comes in hungry and undervalued off a 68-70 loss at Tulsa, while UConn is in a big letdown spot off its huge 68-62 home win over SMU that also has it overvalued.  This line should be Cincinnati -6 or higher.

After all, the Bearcats already won 58-57 at UConn in their first meeting this season.  Cincinnati rarely loses at home as it is 12-3 and outscoring opponents by 18.6 points per game at home.

UConn is 24-44 ATS in its last 68 road games off two consecutive home games.  UConn is 5-16 ATS after playing four consecutive games as a favorite over the last three seasons.  Take Cincinnati Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Alabama -5.5

The Alabama Crimson Tide are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They keep winning, yet they continue lacking respect from oddsmakers here as only 5.5-point home favorites over the Mississippi State Bulldogs Saturday.

Alabama has won five straight games to get to 16-9 and likely into the NCAA Tournament if the season were to end today.  It has home wins over Tennessee, Missouri and Texas A&M, as well as road wins as underdogs at Mississippi State, Florida and LSU over its last seven games with its only loss coming at South Carolina.

But the Crimson Tide can't afford a letdown today against Mississippi State if they want to remain in the NCAA Tournament field.  That shouldn't be a problem considering the Bulldogs are 1-7 in true road games this season, while the Crimson Tide are 9-2 in home games.

The Bulldogs are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a ATS win.  Mississippi State is 1-5 ATS in its last six trips to Alabama.  The favorite is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Mississippi State is 2-9 ATS revenging a home loss over the last two seasons.  Alabama is 6-0 ATS in home games off two or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons.  The Crimson Tide are 9-1 ATS versus good shooting teams who make 45% or more of their shots this season.  Bet Alabama Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Air Force +8

Given how well Air Force has played at home all season, especially here of late, there's no way it should be catching 8 points to New Mexico today.  We'll gladly take advantage of this excellent line value.

Air Force is 11-4 at home this season.  It has pulled off three straight upset victories at home, beating Wyoming by 8 as 4.5-point dogs, Boise State by 8 as 11.5-point dogs, and UNLV by 5 as 8.5-point dogs.  Plus, two of its four home losses this season came by a combined 5 points.

New Mexico is a tremendous home team, but it leaves a lot to be desired with a 4-8 record in all games played away from home this year.  The home team is 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings in this series, so home-court advantage has clearly been huge as well.

The Lobos are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road games.  New Mexico is 2-11 ATS in February games over the last two seasons.  The Falcons will also be out for revenge from a loss at New Mexico on January 27th in their first meeting this season.  Roll with Air Force Saturday.

20* Florida/South Carolina SEC Early ANNIHILATOR on South Carolina -2.5

The South Carolina Gamecocks are highly motivated for a victory off back-to-back losses to Kentucky and Missouri.  Look for them to come out playing with a chip on their shoulder this afternoon against the Florida Gators.

After all, that loss to Kentucky was the first home loss for the Gamecocks all season.  They are still 13-1 SU & 8-3 ATS at home this season with 11 of those victories coming by double-digits, including recent wins over LSU (94-83), Alabama (78-64) and Mississippi State (84-74).

Florida is just 3-6 in true road games this season.  But it comes in overvalued off a road win at Georgia last time out by a final of 57-53.  The Gators have won seven straight meetings with the Gamecocks, but this is a completely different South Carolina team in 2015-16.  The Gamecocks are 21-5 on the season as this is the best team that Frank Martin has had yet.

Florida is 1-8 ATS in road games after allowing 60 points or less over the last two seasons.  The Gators are 0-9 ATS off a combined score of 115 points or less over the last two years.  South Carolina is 8-2 ATS as a home favorite this season.  The Gators are 7-22-2 ATS in their last 31 games following a straight up win.  The Gamecocks are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games.  The Gamecocks are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Bet South Carolina Saturday.

20* Celtics/Jazz ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 196.5

The Utah Jazz are an UNDER machine with Rudy Gobert in the lineup.  They have especially been profitable to the UNDER at home this season with a 16-10 record as a result of giving up just 93.4 points per game at home this year.

One reason the Jazz are such a great defensive team is because they prefer to play at a snail's pace.  In fact, they rank dead last in the league in pace at 93.1 possessions per game.  But the Celtics are no slouches defensively themselves as they rank 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency.

The Celtics and Jazz have played in some very low-scoring games in recent meetings.  They have combined for 169 and 189 points in their last two meetings.  That's an average of 179 combined points per game, which is roughly 18 points less than tonight's posted total of 196.5.

Utah is 8-1 to the UNDER in home games after failing to cover the spread in two of their last three games this season.  The Jazz are 26-14 to the UNDER as a home favorite over the last two seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Pacers/Thunder ESPN Friday No-Brainer on UNDER 215

The Oklahoma City Thunder play defense at home.  They are 19-11 to the UNDER in home games this season while giving up just 98.8 points per game.  It's clear to me that this total has been set way too high tonight for that reason alone.

Oklahoma City is combining for roughly 208 points per game at home this season with their opponents.  Indiana is combining for roughly 204 points per game on the road with their opponents this season.  As you can see, both numbers are well below this 215-point total.

The Thunder and Pacers have combined for 212 or fewer points in 7 of their last 8 meetings as well.  They are averaging 199.7 combined points per game in their last 7 meetings, which is roughly 15 points less than tonight's posted total of 215.

Oklahoma City is 11-1 to the UNDER in home games off a blowout win by 20 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Thunder are 12-1 to the UNDER after a game where they made 12 or more of their 3-point shots over the last two years.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Pistons/Wizards UNDER 209

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this game between the Washington Wizards and Detroit Pistons.  I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle that comes nowhere near this 209-point total tonight.

Recent head-to-head history also supports this play.  The UNDER is 2-0-1 in the last three meetings.  They Pistons and Wizards have combined for 192, 194 and 195 points in those three meetings.  That's an average of 193.7 combined points per game, which is roughly 15 points less than tonight's posted total of 209.

Detroit is a perfect 8-0 to the UNDER in road games after having lost four of its last five games over the last two seasons.  It is combining with its opponents for an average of 181.7 points per game in this spot.  The UNDER is 8-1 in Wizards last nine home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Look for the defensive intensity to be high in this game as both teams come out of the break fighting to make the playoffs.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Cal/Washington Late-Night BAILOUT on Washington +2

The Washington Huskies are on the outside looking in in terms of the NCAA Tournament.  They have to finish strong if they want any chance, and it starts with an upset home victory over the California Bears tonight.

Washington is coming off a brutal 3-game stretch in which they lost to Arizona (by 5) at home, Utah (by 8) on the road and Colorado (by 1) on the road.  But now they return home where they are 10-4 on the season, including 4-2 in Pac-12 play with their only losses coming to Arizona (by 5) and Utah (by 5).

California comes in way overvalued due to three straight victories over Stanford, Oregon and Oregon State, all of which came at home.  But the Golden Bears have been awful on the road this season.  They are 1-8 in all road games, including 0-6 in their last six true road games.  The last four have all come by 6 points or more.

The Golden Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.  The Huskies are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a loss.  Cal is 0-6 ATS off three straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or fewer turnovers this season.  The Golden Bears are 0-6 ATS in road games vs. teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game over the last three seasons.  These four trends combine for a perfect 22-0 system backing the Huskies.  Take Washington Thursday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on UCLA +1

The UCLA Bruins need to start piling up wins if they want to go back to the NCAA Tournament, where they made a deep run all the way to the Elite 8 last year.  They have an excellent chance of doing just that with four of their final six games at home.

The Bruins took care of Arizona State 78-65 on the road as 2-point dogs last time out.  Now they get to host the Utah Utes.  The Bruins are 9-3 at home this season with wins over the likes of Kentucky and Arizona.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in three home meetings with Utah as Pac-12 foes, including a 69-59 victory as 5.5-point dogs last year.

Utah has no business getting this much respect from oddsmakers here.  While the Utes are a tremendous home team, they have left a lot to be desired on the road.  Indeed, the Utes are just 3-4 in true road games this season with their only wins coming over Colorado (by 2), Washington State and Washington (by 5).  They have lost to Stanford, Cal, Oregon and Oregon State on the road.

Utah is 1-8 ATS when playing its 2nd game in 8 days this season.  UCLA is 10-2 ATS in home games after having lost two of its last three coming in over the last two seasons.  The Bruins are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games following three or more consecutive road games.  The home team is a perfect 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet UCLA Thursday.

15* Bulls/Cavs TNT Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 207

Death, taxes and the Bulls/Cavs playing in a low-scoring game are the only things that are certain in life.  Both the Bulls and Cavs will be rusty from the long layoff due to the All-Star Break, which further makes me like this UNDER tonight.

The Bulls and Cavs have combined for 207 or fewer points in nine straight meetings.  They have combined for 179, 192, 167, 207, 170, 195, 197, 191 and 193 points in those nine meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 187.9 combined points per game, which is more than 19 points less than tonight's posted total of 207.

I just don't know where the Bulls are going to get their offense from right now.  They are without leading scorer Jimmy Butler as well as 3-point specialist Nikola Mirotic and his 10.6 points per game.  The Bulls were held to 90 and 91 points in their final two games before the break, and it's not going to get any easier against the Cavs tonight.

Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (CLEVELAND) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games are 29-6 (82.9%) over the last five seasons.  Chicago is 8-0 UNDER when playing with 3 or more days' rest over the last two seasons.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Duke/UNC ESPN Wednesday ANNIHILATOR on North Carolina -6.5

The North Carolina Tar Heels come into this game with the Duke Blue Devils as the more motivated team.  They have lost three straight in this rivalry, so they badly want to taste sweet, sweet victory.  They finally have the better team than Duke this year, and I look for them to roll to victory at home tonight.

After all, Duke won the National Championship last season so it's easy to see why it went 2-0 against North Carolina, though the two wins came by a combined 9 points.  But this Duke team is one of the worst we've seen in quite some time.  In fact, the Blue Devils were knocked out of the Top 25 for the first time since 2006 a few weeks ago.

That came on the heels of losing four out of five games.  But the Blue Devils are now back to being overvalued due to winning four straight coming in.  But those wins have been far from convincing as all four came by 9 points or less, and three were at home.  They needed a buzzer-beater to top Virginia at home on Saturday.

Now the Blue Devils will be tasked with facing one of the best UNC teams in recent memory.  The Tar Heels are 21-4 this season and 10-2 in ACC play.  They have absolutely suffocated opponents at home, going 13-0 in Chapel Hill while outscoring opponents by 20.3 points per game in the process.  They have won all 13 of their home games by 8 points or more this season, making for a 13-0 system backing them.  That includes a 21-point victory over Pitt in their last outing.

From a strict basketball standpoint, I believe the reason the Tar Heels are going to run away with this game will be their advantage on the glass.  North Carolina ranks 2nd in the ACC in rebounding margin at plus-7.4 boards per game.  Rebounding has been a weakness for Duke ever since losing Amile Jefferson to injury.  The Blue Devils are only have a plus-2.9 margin on the season, and they are -0.6 in conference play.  Bet North Carolina Wednesday.

15* Syracuse/Louisville ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Syracuse +8

I'm in strict fade Louisville mode right now, and it's working.  The Cardinals are lost mentally right now because of the recent sanctions that were handed down to them.  They cannot play in the postseason this year, and I believe that has affected the players' approach to the game.

The Cardinals are coming off back-to-back losses to Duke and Notre Dame.  I don't believe they'll be able to get back on track tonight against one of the hottest teams in the ACC in Syracuse.  Even if they do get back in the win column, I find it hard to believe it will come by 8-plus points, which is what it will take to cover this spread.

Syracuse has gone 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in its last nine games overall with its only loss coming at Virginia by 8 points.  It has gone 3-1 on the road during this stretch with a 28-point win at Wake Forest, a 2-point win at Duke and a 14-point win at Boston College.  It is also 5-0 at home, highlighted by a 13-point win over Florida State and a 15-point win over Notre Dame.

Syracuse beat Louisville 69-59 at home last season as 2.5-point underdogs.  It has actually won its last two trips to Louisville as well, winning outright as 7-point dogs and 3-point dogs.  The Orange are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The Orange are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 road games off four or more consecutive wins. The Cardinals are 11-24 ATS in their last 35 home games as a favorite of 6.5 to 9 points.  Roll with Syracuse Wednesday.

25* Big East GAME OF THE YEAR on Providence +9

The Providence Friars represent my favorite play in the Big East for the entire 2015-16 season tonight when they hit the road to take on the Xavier Musketeers.  The Friars catching 9 points is simply too much tonight in a game that they could easily win outright.

Providence comes in undervalued due to being 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall.  That is evidenced by this 8-point spread tonight.  This will be just the 4th time all season that the Friars have been at least 7.5-point underdogs.  They won outright at Villanova as 12-point dogs and outright at Butler as 7.5-point dogs in two of the three previous instances.

One thing I love about this spot for the Friars is that they will be in revenge mode from a 68-75 home loss to Xavier on January 26.  But that loss was predictable because they were in a massive letdown spot off their upset win at Villanova two days earlier.  But after losing three of their last four coming in, the Friars are focused and will be chomping at the bit to get revenge behind Kris Dunn and company.

Xavier has been far from impressive at home here of late.  The Musketeers are actually 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.  They lost 72-81 as 9.5-point favorites to Georgetown, beat Seton Hall by 8 as 9-point favorites, beat St. John's by only 7 as 21.5-point favorites, and beat Marquette by 8 as 12.5-point favorites.  Providence will be the best team that they have played at home in quite some time.

Another thing to love about Providence is that this have been a very closely-contested series of late.  Indeed, all five meetings between these teams have been decided by 9 points or less over the last three seasons.  The Friars are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games, and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Providence is 11-1 ATS in road games off an ATS loss over the last two seasons, actually winning in these spots by 10.2 points per game.  Xavier is 0-8 ATS vs. teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game after 15-plus games over the last two seasons.  Bet Providence Wednesday.

20* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE MONTH on St. Joe's -1.5

First place is on the line when the Dayton Flyers visit the St. Joe's Hawks tonight in Atlantic 10 action.  The Flyers are in 1st place currently at 11-1 within the conference, while the Hawks are just behind them at 10-2.  I'll gladly side with the home team in this one as the Hawks continue to be undervalued as only 1.5-point favorites here.

St. Joe's has gone 21-4 SU & 17-7 ATS in all games this season.  The oddsmakers and betting public simply have not caught up to this team as they have been a covering machine.  They have won and covered three straight in blowout fashion coming in with a 22-point win at Fordham as 7.5-point favorites, an 18-point win at George Washington as 4.5-point dogs, and a 26-point home win over LaSalle as 17.5-point favorites.

Dayton comes in overvalued due to its No. 15 national ranking and nine straight victories.  But the Flyers have been extremely fortunate of late.  In their last two games, they only won by 2 at home over Duquesne as 14.5-point favorites, and by 2 at Rhode Island as 2.5-point favorites.  Their luck runs out tonight against a St. Joe's outfit that is the best in the Atlantic 10 in my opinion.

Plus, St. Joe's is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with Dayton.  How important is home-court advantage in this series you ask?  Well, how about the fact that the home team is 14-1 SU in the last 15 meetings.  St. Joe's has won 7 straight home meetings with Dayton dating back to 2001.  Take St. Joe's Wednesday.

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on Davidson -2

The Davidson Wildcats are showing excellent value as only 2-point home favorites over the Richmond Spiders tonight.  The Wildcats already beat the Spiders 78-70 on the road as 6.5-point underdogs in their first meeting this season, and they should be bigger favorites at home in the rematch.
 
I like the fact that Davidson is coming off a tough 1-point loss at George Mason, which will have it refocused when it returns home tonight.  After all, the Wildcats do not lose at home as they are 11-1 on the season in their own building with their only loss coming to VCU.

Richmond comes in overvalued due to winning three straight games, but those three came against three of the worst teams in the A-10 in UMass, Saint Louis and Fordham.  They also lost at home to George Mason by 4 in the game prior to this winning streak.

Davidson is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Richmond, including 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS at home with wins by 14 and 13 points.  The Spiders are 0-7 ATS in their last seven Tuesday games.  The Wildcats are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games off a close loss by 3 points or less.  Richmond is 0-6 ATS vs. up-tempo teams that average 62 or more shots per game over the last two seasons.  Take Davidson Tuesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Ohio State PK

The Ohio State Buckeyes get the call tonight as a pick 'em at home against the Michigan Wolverines.  I believe this is a very generous price for the Buckeyes, who really need a win like this and a few more if they want any chance of making the NCAA Tournament.

With an 8-5 record in Big Ten play, the Buckeyes have clearly gotten better as the season has gone on.  They have gone 5-1 at home within the conference with their only loss coming to Maryland by 5 points.  Michigan has only played seven true road games all season, going 4-3 with double-digit losses at SMU (by 24), Iowa (by 11) and Purdue (by 17).  Its only road wins have come at NC State, Illinois, Nebraska and Minnesota.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 7-1 SU in the last eight meetings.  In fact, Ohio State is a perfect 11-0 SU in its last 11 home meetings with Michigan since 2005, including a 71-52 win last year in their most recent meeting.  Roll with Ohio State Tuesday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas -2.5

The Texas Longhorns will be highly motivated for a victory tonight when they return home to face the West Virginia Mountaineers.  They have lost back-to-back tough games on the road to both Oklahoma and Iowa State, which are two of the best teams in the Big 12.

But the Longhorns continue to be undervalued here as only 2.5-point home favorites.  They have gone 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall and are better than the oddsmakers and the betting public realize.  They prove it again tonight with an inspired effort on their home floor.

Texas has protected its home court very well, going 12-1 on the season with wins over the likes of North Carolina, Iowa State and Vanderbilt.  West Virginia has lost two of its last three road games with a 17-point loss at Florida and a 10-point loss at Kansas.

The Longhorns have had the Mountaineers' number, going 5-1 SU in their last five meetings and 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings, including a 56-49 road win as 12-point dogs in their first meeting this season.  West Virginia is 8-20 ATS in its last 28 road games revenging a loss as a favorite.  Texas is 9-1 ATS against teams who win more than 80% of their games on the season after 15 or more games over the last three seasons.  Bet Texas Tuesday.

20* NC State/Virginia ESPN Monday No-Brainer on NC State +12

The NC State Wolfpack are a much better team than their 13-12 record would indicate this season.  They are fully capable of hanging with Virginia, possibly pulling off the upset on the road tonight.  That's easy to see when you look at their results in ACC play this season.

Sure, NC State is just 3-9 in ACC play, but 7-4 ATS as it has simply had bad fortune in close games.  Indeed, all nine losses have come by 12 points or less, including seven by 8 points or fewer.  The Wolfpack also have wins over the likes of Pitt (by 17) on the road and Miami (by 16) at home to show what they are capable of.  They haven't lost any of their last 24 games this season by more than 12 points, making for a perfect 24-0 system backing them.

Virginia is in a horrible spot here.  It is coming off a deflating 62-63 loss at Duke on Saturday.  The Blue Devils shouldn't have won that game as Grayson Allen traveled on the final play, but he made a shot at the buzzer that the refs counted, giving Duke the victory.  I expect Virginia to suffer a hangover after getting cheated out of a win as it will be hard to come back after that game at historic Cameron Indoor Stadium.

NC State is 10-1 ATS off three or more consecutive overs over the last three seasons.  The Wolfpack are 7-0 ATS as a road underdog or pick over the last two seasons.  NC State is 33-16-2 ATS in its last 51 vs. ACC opponents.  The Cavaliers are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS win.  The road team is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings.  The Wolfpack are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet NC State Monday.

20* Indiana/Michigan State Big Ten No-Brainer on Michigan State -7

The Michigan State Spartans are playing their best basketball of the season coming into this game.  They have gone 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  But since they are coming off an overtime loss at Purdue by 1, they will be highly motivated to get back in the win column today.

The Spartans' four wins during this stretch came by 9 at home over Maryland, by 31 at Northwestern, by 34 at home over Rutgers, and by 16 at Michigan.  They have also had four days off in between games since playing Purdue, while Indiana has only had two days off.  That extra rest and preparation will favor the Spartans here.

Indiana is one of the most overrated teams in the country.  It had taken advantage of a very soft Big Ten schedule to this point with most of its tough games at home.  It has played Rutgers, Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and Penn State on the road.  It has actually lost two of its last three road games to Wisconsin and Penn State.

Michigan State is 14-1 SU & 10-5 ATS in its last 15 home meetings with Indiana.  The Hoosiers are just 3-8 ATS in all road games this season.  The Spartans are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games.  The Hoosiers are 9-23 ATS in their last 32 games following a ATS win.  Michigan State is 11-1 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less over the last three seasons.  Bet Michigan State Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Texas Tech +10.5

The Baylor Bears are way overvalued here as double-digit home favorites over the Texas Tech Red Raiders.  I look for this game to go right down to the wire, which has been the case when these teams have gotten together in recent seasons.

Indeed, each of the last five meetings in this series have been decided by 10 points or less, including 3, 3 and 5 points in the last three meetings.  That includes a 63-60 road victory for the Bears in their first meeting this season on January 16th, which puts the Red Raiders in dangerous revenge mode in the rematch here today.

Texas Tech is the definition of a team that is better than its record would indicate.  The Red Raiders are a solid 14-9 this season, but it really could be much better.  Seven of their nine losses have come by 10 points or less, so if they had a +10.5 spread for every game this season, they would be 21-2 ATS.  This is simply too many points folks.  Bet Texas Tech Saturday.

15* Wisconsin/Maryland Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Wisconsin +9.5

The Wisconsin Badgers come into this game against highly-ranked Maryland playing their best basketball of the season.  I expect that to continue for a number of reasons, not the least of which is that they want revenge from a tough loss to the Terrapins at home in their first meeting this year.

Wisconsin is a perfect 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall.  It has beaten the likes of Michigan State, Indiana, Ohio State and Nebraska at home, while also taking care of both Penn State and Illinois on the road during this stretch.  The Badgers are 7-4 in Big Ten play overall with all four losses coming by 6 points or less (6, 1, 3, 5).

The Badgers lost a 60-63 heartbreaker at home to Maryland in a game they feel they should have won.  But Melo Trimble hit the game-winning 3-pointer with only 1.2 seconds left, and the Badgers have not forgotten.  Maryland shot 52.1% in that game compared to 38.7% for Wisconsin, yet it only managed to win by 3.

"I think our guys are excited about this game for a lot of reasons, and it's not only because they're ranked (No. 2) in the country or because of the potential postseason ramifications," assistant coach Lamont Paris told the school's official website. "It's because they felt like they left something hanging out there in the first game. We made some mistakes and didn't finish around the rim."

Wisconsin is 6-0 ATS following a conference win this season.  Maryland is 0-6 ATS in home games after a game where it made 55% of its shots or better over the last two seasons.  The Terrapins are 0-6 ATS in home games after two straight wins by 10 points or more over the last two years.  These three trends combine for a perfect 18-0 system backing the Badgers.  Roll with Wisconsin Saturday.

20* Virginia/Duke ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Duke -2

Rarely will you ever get the opportunity to back the Duke Blue Devils as this short of home favorites year in and year out.  I know that the Blue Devils aren't as strong as they were when they won the NCAA title last season, but I'm not about to pass up on this golden opportunity.

Duke still has one of the Top 5 best home-court advantages in the country.  It has gone 12-2 at home this season, outscoring opponents by nearly 20 points per game.  Its two losses at home this season have come by a combined 6 points, and it is coming off back-to-back home wins over NC State and Louisville.

Virginia comes in way overvalued due to winning seven straight games overall.  But don't forget, this is the same team that started 0-3 on the road in ACC play with losses to the likes of VA Tech, Georgia Tech and Florida State.  The Cavaliers also got a miracle 72-71 win at Wake Forest in a game they should have lost as they trailed big late before hitting a banked-in, buzzer-beater.

Duke is 7-1 ATS after having won four of its last five games this season.  The Blue Devils are 10-2 ATS in home games off a home win over the last two years.  Virginia hasn't won at Cameron Indoor Stadium in more than 20 years.  The Cavaliers are 0-16 SU in their last 16 trips to Duke with their last win coming in 1995.  Take Duke Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Notre Dame -1

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are really playing as well as anyone in the ACC right now.  They are coming off back-to-back huge wins with an 80-76 home victory over UNC and an 89-83 road win at Clemson, winning outright as underdogs in both contests.

Now the Fighting Irish return home to face Louisville.  We are getting them at a great price here as only 1-point favorites considering the Fighting Irish are 12-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 15.1 points per game.

Louisville cannot really be trusted right now because it was recently handed down sanctions for this season.  The Cardinals have a quality team this year, but they have to be disheartened knowing that they won't be playing in the postseason either way.  It's also worth noting that the Cardinals are just 3-4 in true road games this season.

Louisville is 0-6 ATS in road games after having won six or seven of their last eight games this season.  Notre Dame is 60-37 ATS in its last 97 games off a win by 6 points or less.  The Cardinals are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games overall.  Bet Notre Dame Saturday.

15* Kansas/Oklahoma ESPN Saturday No-Brainer on Oklahoma -4

Simply put, the Oklahoma Sooners are the best team in the Big 12, and they'll come out and prove it at home today against the Kansas Jayhawks.  The Jayhawks have won 11 straight regular season Big 12 titles, but that streak comes to an end this year, and this game will have a lot to do with it.

The Sooners want revenge from a 106-109 triple-overtime loss at Kansas in their first meeting this season on January 4th.  They should have no problem getting that revenge at home this time around.  After all, the Sooners are 12-0 at home this season and outscoring the opposition by 18.7 points per game in the process.

Kansas is actually just 1-3 in its last four Big 12 road games with its only win coming at TCU.  The Jayhawks lost by 11 at West Virginia, by 19 at Oklahoma State, and by 13 at Iowa State, so they weren't even close to winning any of those three games, either.

Kansas is 3-12 ATS in road games after having won 12 or more of its last 15 games over the last three seasons.  The Sooners will make a big-time statement today behind Buddy Hield and company.  Hield had 46 points in the first meeting and will be locked in from start to finish.  Roll with Oklahoma Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Ole Miss -3

Fade Arkansas on the road, and back the Razorbacks at home.  That's as simple as it gets, but it's true.  The Razorbacks are 1-7 in true road games this season, including an ugly 46-78 loss at Mississippi State last time out.

Ole Miss comes into this game playing very well.  It won at Missouri 76-73, beat a good Vanderbilt team 85-78 at home, and only lost by 5 at Florida as 8.5-point dogs last time out in its last three games.  In fact, the Rebels are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games overall.

Backing Ole Miss at home has been a solid move this season as well.  The Rebels are 9-2 SU at home this season with their only two losses coming to Florida and South Carolina.  Get this, Ole Miss is 14-3 SU & 14-2-1 ATS in its last 17 home meetings with Arkansas, so home-court advantage has obviously been huge in this series.

The Razorbacks are 30-62 ATS in their last 92 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Rebels are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a straight up loss.  The Razorbacks are 7-20-2 ATS in their last 29 meetings with the Rebels overall.  Take Ole Miss Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma State -1

The Oklahoma State Cowboys were in a big letdown spot in their first meeting with Kansas State this season.  They were coming off a huge win over Kansas, and they promptly laid and egg at Kansas State in their next game by a final of 73-89.

But now the Cowboys will be locked in as they are coming off three consecutive defeats, all by 7 points or less.  They want to get back in the win column, and they certainly want revenge from that earlier defeat, so they will be the more motivated team here.

Of course, the key is that home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  Indeed, Oklahoma State is 10-1 in its last 11 home meetings with Kansas State.  The last two meetings in Stillwater resulted in Cowboys' blowouts by 14 and 16 points.  The home team is also 9-0 SU in the last nine meetings and 17-4 ATS in the last 21 meetings.  Kansas State is 1-6 SU in true road games this season.  Bet Oklahoma State Saturday.

20* UCLA/Arizona ESPN Friday No-Brainer on UCLA +11.5

Three losses in four games have put the UCLA Bruins back on the NCAA Tournament bubble.  Now they have a lot of work to do again this season after barely making it as a 13-loss team last year, and then surprisingly making a deep run.

The Bruins have big wins over Kentucky, Gonzaga and Arizona this season, and now they have a chance to add another while going for the season sweep of the Wildcats.  UCLA has had a lot of time to correct its mistakes after last playing on February 4th in a bad loss at USC.

UCLA has given Arizona all it could handle over the past couple seasons.  It won the first meeting 87-84 at home this season, which was one of many close games in this series of late.  In fact, each of the last 11 meetings have been decided by 11 points or fewer, which is less than this 11.5-point margin.

Better yet, UCLA hasn't lost to Arizona by more than 11 points in any of the last 15 meetings, making for a perfect 15-0 system backing the Bruins pertaining to tonight's 11.5-point spread.  I fully expect a big effort from the Bruins here, who simply need this win more.  Bet UCLA Friday.