15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Tulsa +7.5 

The Tulsa Golden Hurricane just aren’t getting any respect from oddsmakers, especially when they’re at home.  The Golden Hurricane have gone 11-4 this season with all four of their losses coming on the road to Houston, Utah, Nevada and Southern Illinois.  They were competitive in all but one of those games, too. 

Tulsa is a perfect 9-0 at home this season.  They have upset home wins over both Oklahoma State as 2-point dogs and Kansas State as 6.5-point dogs, two Power 5 teams from the Big 12.  And now they will give Cincinnati a run for its money tonight. 

The Bearcats aren’t nearly as strong as they have been in years’ past.  They have gone just 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in true road games this season with their only win coming 65-61 as 7-point favorites at UNLV, failing to cover.  They also lost 59-70 as 2.5-point dogs at Mississippi State and 71-73 as 17.5-point favorites in a shocking upset loss at East Carolina.  This team clearly has some problems on the road. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Tulsa only lost 55-57 as 9.5-point dogs and won 70-68 as 1.5-point favorites in its last two home meetings with Cincinnati.  And this is the best Tulsa team that head coach Frank Haith has had yet, while it’s one of the worst Cincinnati teams that had coach Mick Cronin has had in recent memory. 

Tulsa is 9-1 ATS in home games vs. teams who are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game over the last three seasons.  The Golden Hurricane are 21-9 ATS off a home win over the last three seasons.  Tulsa is 19-9 ATS when playing only its 2nd game in 8 days over the last three years.  The Bearcats are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Take Tulsa Thursday. 

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Chicago Bulls +9.5 

The Bulls are as healthy as they’ve been at any point this season.  It’s no surprise that they are starting to cover some spreads and be more competitive.  Indeed, the Bulls are 5-3 ATS in their last eight games overall coming into this showdown with the Portland Trail Blazers tonight.  They are well-rested and ready to go playing on two days’ rest as well. 

The Bulls have been doing their best work on the road of late.  Chicago is 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five road games.  That includes outright upsets at San Antonio 98-93 as 9-point dogs, at Cleveland 112-92 as 1-point dogs and at Washington 101-92 as 4.5-point dogs.  They also gave the Raptors are run for their money in a 89-95 loss at 10.5-point dogs. 

Portland will be playing its 4th game in 6 days tonight.  The Blazers are starting to get bored playing five of their last six games at home.  They failed to cover as 11.5-point favorites against the Knicks in their last home game, and I think they won’t be exactly excited to play the Bulls tonight, either. 

Chicago is 13-3 ATS in road games with a total of 200 to 209.5 over the last two seasons.  The Bulls are 19-8 ATS in road games when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days over the last three years.  The Blazers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win.  The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. 

Plays against home favorites (Portland) - who score 102 or more points pre game against a team that scores 98-102 PPG, after scoring 110 points or more in two straight games are 71-34 (67.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Bulls Wednesday. 

15* TCU/Kansas ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Kansas -5 

It’s safe to say the Kansas Jayhawks will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They are coming off just their second loss of the season, and one of their worst losses in recent memory.  They lost 60-77 at Iowa State over the weekend and committed a season-high 24 turnovers to basically give the game away. 

“The thing that is good about getting beat rather than getting edged,” said Kansas head coach Bill Self, “is it’s very evident we have deficiencies and they need to be worked on.”  It’s also safe to say the Jayhawks will have had a couple of very productive practices Monday and Tuesday leading up to this game. 

TCU is overvalued right now due to its 12-1 start this season and the fact that the Horned Frogs have covered eight of their last nine spreads coming in.  To only be catching 5 points at Kansas is showing how much respect the Horned Frogs are getting right now.  And they have feasted on a very weak schedule with only one true road game thus far, and even their neutral court games have been against soft competition. 

Kansas has already been through the gauntlet and is battle-tested heading into the Big 12.  Sagarin has Kansas as playing the toughest schedule in the country thus far.  They have already faced the likes of Michigan State, Marquette, Tennessee, Villanova, Arizona State, Oklahoma and Iowa State. 

TCU has played the 151st-ranked schedule.  They have only faced one team in the Top 50, while Kansas has already faced six teams in the Top 25 of Sagarin’s ratings, going 5-1 against them.  KenPom has Kansas as playing the 3rd-toughest schedule, with TCU 186th.  So both show Kansas with a massive advantage in strength of schedule thus far. 

Kansas is 14-3 ATS off two or more consecutive ATS losses over the last three seasons.  The Jayhawks are 41-24 ATS in their last 65 games following a road loss.  Self is 14-3 ATS in home games after scoring 60 points or less in all games he has coached.  The Jayhawks are 34-16-3 ATS in their last 53 games following a loss.  Take Kansas Wednesday. 

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Spurs/Grizzlies UNDER 205.5 

I like taking the UNDER in games between teams who just recently played each other.  They become familiar with one another, and it favors the defenses.  The Spurs just beat the Grizzlies 108-88 at home on Saturday, January 5th for 196 combined points.  It was one of many low-scoring battles in this series recently. 

Indeed, the Spurs and Grizzlies have combined for 199 or fewer points in six of their last seven meetings overall.    They have averaged 195.1 combined points per game in their last seven meetings, so we are essentially getting 10-plus points of value on the UNDER on this 205.5-point total. 

Some things in the NBA change, but the Grizzlies stay the same.  They are a team that relies on defense to win games.  The Grizzlies are 30th in the NBA in pace at 97.6 possessions per game.  The Spurs are 25th at 100.3 possessions per game, so these are two of the slowest teams in the NBA.  Memphis is also 27th in offensive efficiency, but 6th in defensive efficiency. 

The Grizzlies have been held to 107 or fewer points in 19 consecutive games, including 99 or fewer in 14 of those 19.  Memphis is 16-4 UNDER off a road game this season.  The UNDER is 8-3 in Grizzlies last 11 games overall.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday. 

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on 76ers/Wizards UNDER 229 

I always like backing the UNDER in the second game of these home-and-home situations.  The 76ers just beat the Wizards 132-115 at home last night.  Now they will be playing in Washington in a 2nd of a back-to-back situation or both teams.  Both will be tired, and this fatigue plus the familiarity favors the UNDER. 

That 247-point outburst was a rarity between these teams as both shots lights out from the field with the 76ers hitting 55.7% and the Wizards 50%.  Each of the previous three meetings between these teams saw 221 or fewer combined points and averaged just 213.7 combined points.  I think we are getting a ton of value on the UNDER 229 in this game tonight. 

Washington is 19-9 UNDER after scoring 105 points or more in three consecutive games over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Wizards last six following a loss by more than 10 points.  Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday. 

20* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Ohio State -5

The Ohio State Buckeyes should come back highly motivated for a victory tonight after blowing a big lead against Michigan State at home over the weekend.  Head coach Chris Holtmann was not happy with their effort in the second half, and I expect his players to respond in a big way tonight. 

“We’re certainly not there yet,” Holtmann said afterward. “You let a team shoot 76 percent on your home floor and score 50 points in the second half, then you’ve got a long ways to go.  That’s a fact for us.” 

Now the Buckeyes get to take out their frustration on Big Ten bottom feeder Rutgers tonight.  The Scarlet Knights have lost five of their past seven games overall with their only two wins coming at home against Maine and Columbia.  They lost by 11 at home to Michigan State and by 14 at home to Maryland, and they only beat Columbia by 3 as 11-point favorites. 

Ohio State certainly did not take Rutgers lightly in their two meetings last season.  The Buckeyes won 68-46 as basically identical 6-point road favorites last year.  And they came back and won 79-52 as 14.5-point home favorites in their second meeting.  Given those two results, and the fact that Ohio State is every bit as good as it was a year ago, the Buckeyes should have no problem covering this generous 5.5-point spread tonight. 

Rutgers is 3-11 ATS in home games after having lost four or five of their last six games over the past three seasons.  Hortmann is 13-3 ATS in road games in all games he has coached at Ohio State.  Holtmann is 12-2 ATS after playing a game as an underdog at Ohio State.  The Scarlet Knights are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.  Bet Ohio State Wednesday. 

20* UNC/NC State ESPN No-Brainer on NC State -1 

What more does NC State have to do to start getting some respect from the books? Until they do, I’m going to continue to ride them as they’ve treated me very well this season.  The Wolfpack returned three starters from last year, and underrated head coach Kevin Keatts brought in some great transfers that are really paying dividends this season. 

Indeed, the Wolfpack are 13-1 SU this season.  Their only loss came on the road at Wisconsin 75-79 as 6-point dogs.  And you know this team is underrated when you consider they have gone 11-3 ATS this season.  They are elite offensively, scoring 89.2 points per game on 52.1% shooting, including 40.9% from 3-point range.  And they are very good defensively as well, holding opponents to 66.0 points and 42.4% shooting.  They are outscoring the opposition by 23.2 points per game on average this year, including 29.8 points per game at home where they are 10-0. 

North Carolina is 3-2 in true road games this season.  They beat Wofford Elon and Pitt, but lost to the two best teams they’ve faced on the road in Michigan (67-84) and Kentucky (72-80).  I strongly believe that NC State is one of the best teams in the country and as good as both Michigan and Kentucky, or close to them.  That will show on the court tonight. 

NC State is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall.  The Wolfpack are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  It's worth noting the Wolfpack get four days to prepare for UNC, while the Tar Heels only get two days to prepare after playing on Saturday.  That's a nice advantage for the home team here that will pay off.  Take NC State Tuesday. 

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Southern Illinois -1 

The Southern Illinois Salukis are one of the best teams in the MVC.  They returned all five starters this season.  The problem is, they lost one of their key starters to a suspension after seven games.  Armon Fletcher (11.6 PPG, 5.1 RPG) has missed the last eight games because of the suspension, but he makes his return tonight. 

The loss of Fletcher was huge as he shoots 58% from the floor and 47.8% from 3-point range.  They went 5-2 with him in the first seven games with one of their only losses coming 59-71 at Kentucky as 18.5-point dogs.  They have gone just 4-4 without him.  They’ve managed to open 2-0 in MVC play without him with wins against Missouri State and Northern Iowa.  And they’ll be a dangerous team moving forward with him now. 

Conversely, Drake just lost its best player to a season-ending injury in the MVC opener against Evansville.  The Bulldogs were upset by Evansville 77-82 on the road, and they also lost 74-85 to Loyola-Chicago at home in their first full game without him.  PG Nick Norton (14.0 PPG, 5.9 APG, 40% 3-pointers) is irreplaceable.  He has a triple-double this season and had 17 assists in one game.  He was the leader of this team, and he’ll be missed greatly moving forward. 

Southern Illinois has actually played its best basketball on the road this season, going a perfect 6-0 ATS with its only straight up losses coming to Kentucky by 12 as 18.5-point dogs and Buffalo by 8 as 13-point dogs, which are two of the better teams in the country.  I think being a veteran team with five returning starters is the reason the Salukis have had so much success on the road this year.  They improve to 7-0 ATS in road games with a win and cover tonight.  Roll with Southern Illinois Tuesday. 

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -1 

The Miami Heat are coming off one of their worst losses of the season.  They lost 82-106 at Atlanta as 6.5-point favorites on Sunday.  It’s safe to say that the Heat will come back highly motivated for a victory tonight at home against the Denver Nuggets. 

It was clearly an aberration for the Heat, who have been playing great basketball for weeks.  Indeed, the Heat are 12-6 SU & 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games overall.  And the Heat have owned tonight’s opponent, the Denver Nuggets, in recent meetings.  They are 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Nuggets. 

Denver is in an awful spot here tonight.  The Nuggets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 8 days here.  They will also be playing in their 4th different city in six days.  Now they’re up against a rested Heat team that will be playing only their 4th game in 9 days.  The Nuggets won’t have much left in the tank off their 113-125 shootout loss in Houston last night. 

Miami is 11-2 ATS vs. poor pressure defensive teams that force 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Denver is 0-7 ATS after allowing 115 points or more this season.  The Nuggets are 1-9 ATS after scoring 110 points or more in three straight games this season.  The Nuggets are 0-8 ATS off a combined score of 235 points or more this season.  Bet the Heat Tuesday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Missouri +8 

The No. 3 ranked Tennessee Vols are one of the best teams in the country, no question.  But they are getting a ton of respect from oddsmakers now and it’s time to ’sell high’ on them, especially off their 96-50 home win over Georgia on Saturday.  They will have had just two days to get ready for Missouri now. 

Meanwhile, Missouri has been off since December 29th, getting plenty of time to game plan for Tennessee.  That’s a huge advantage for them.  The Tigers should be highly motivated for a victory in their SEC opener tonight at home. 

This is a Missouri team that has been grossly underrated of late, and has won me a couple bets in the process.  They have gone 6-0 SU & 4-0-2 ATS in their last six games overall.  I won with them as 2-point home dogs in their 71-56 win over Xavier.  I also won with them as a pick ‘em in their 79-63 win over Illinois on a neutral during this stretch.  Now they put their name on the map here by giving Tennessee a run for its money. 

Missouri is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games as a home dog of 6.5 to 9 points.  Tennessee is 1-8 ATS after two straight games where they made 78% of their free throws or better over the last two seasons.  The Vols are 26-44 ATS in their last 70 road games off four consecutive wins.  The Tigers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six home games.  The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Take Missouri Tuesday. 

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Minnesota -1.5 

The Minnesota Golden Gophers should be bigger favorites at home over the Maryland Terrapins tonight.  This is one of the most improved teams in the Big Ten as the Gophers returned five starters from last year and a ton of experience. 

It has led to a 12-2 start for the Gophers, whose two losses both came on the road at Ohio State and Boston College.  They have also beaten both Wisconsin and Washington on the road, as well as Nebraska and Oklahoma State at home.  And they should be able to handle Maryland at home tonight. 

The Terrapins are also a quality team at 12-3 this season, but they’ve done most of their damage at home.  They have only played three true road games this season, losing at Purdue and winning at Rutgers and Navy. This will be their stiffest road test yet as I believe Minnesota is one of the best teams in the Big Ten this year, but they’re not being treated like it by oddsmakers. 

Minnesota is 8-0 SU at home this season and basically just needs to win this game to cover the 1.5-point spread.  Mark Turgeon is 9-18 ATS off a win by 10 points or more against a conference opponent as the coach of Maryland.  The Terrapins are getting way too much respect from the books tonight.  Bet Minnesota Tuesday. 

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Sacramento Kings -5 

The Sacramento Kings will be highly motivated for a victory at home Monday night.  They have lost four straight coming in, but all four losses came by 7 points or less to the Lakers, Blazers, Nuggets and Warriors, four playoff teams in the Western Conference.  I expect them to take out their frustrations on the lowly Magic tonight. 

This is a bad spot for the Magic, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA.  This is a Magic team that is 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in its last six road games with all five losses coming by 10 points or more.  They have no depth, so this back-to-back really hurt them. 

Making matters worse for the Magic is that their conditioning will really be tested against a Kings team that ranks 2nd in the NBA in pace at 106.3 possessions per game.  The Magic are 26th in pace at 100 possessions per game.  Sacramento will control the tempo playing at home, and Orlando won’t be able to keep up. 

The Kings have owned the Magic, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Sacramento is also 20-6 ATS in its last 26 games vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Kings are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. NBA Southeast Division foes.  Take the Kings Monday. 

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -5.5 

The Pelicans took out a few weeks’ worth of frustration with their 133-98 win over the Cavaliers on Saturday.  And now they look to put a winning streak together here for the first time since mid-December.  It’s time for them to turn the corner now that they are healthier than they’ve been in quite some time.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, while the Grizzlies will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days. 

The Pelicans should have their way with a Grizzlies team that is really struggling right now.  The Grizzlies are just 2-10 SU & 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  Yet they continue getting a ton of respect from oddsmakers. The Grizzlies have been held to less than 100 points in 11 of their last 17 games, and 107 or fewer in 20 straight.   

The Grizzlies just can’t score the ball, and that’s a tough way to win in today’s NBA.  There has been some infighting as well as the Grizzlies called a players’ only meeting following their 94-101 home loss to Detroit as 6.5-point favorites.  They proceeded to lose their next two games 100-109 as 4-point home favorites against Brooklyn, and 88-108 as 8.5-point road dogs at San Antonio.  Clearly, the players’ only meeting only made things worse. 

Memphis is 0-9 ATS after trailing its previous game by 20 or more points at the half over the last two seasons.  As stated before, the Grizzlies are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  Bet the Pelicans Monday.

20* Miami/Louisville ACC No-Brainer on Louisville -6 

The Louisville Cardinals have faced a brutal schedule this season and have managed a 9-4 record in Chris Mack’s first year on the job.  Their four losses have come to Tennessee, Marquette, Indiana and Kentucky with three of those on the road.  They have also beaten Michigan State, so it’s safe to say they are battle-tested heading into ACC play. 

Now the Cardinals will be highly motivated for a win in their ACC opener Sunday against one of the worst teams in the ACC in Miami.  And the Cardinals have been great at home this season, going 8-1 while outscoring their opponents by 16.3 points per game on average.  Their only home loss came to Kentucky. 

Miami just isn’t that good this season, as evidenced by their 8-5 record and 4-9 ATS mark.  The Hurricanes have losses to Yale, Rutgers and Pennsylvania.  They have only played one true road game this season, and that was their 75-89 loss at Pennsylvania as 5.5-point favorites.  They also have some concerning wins as they beat Bethune-Cookman by 8 as 27-point home favorites, Houston Baptist by 7 as 20.5-point home favorites and Campbell by 11 as 19-point home favorites. 

Miami is 1-8 ATS vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game this season.  The Hurricanes are 1-7 ATS vs. good offensive teams that score 77-plus points per game this year.  Miami is 7-20 ATS in its last 27 games overall.  The Hurricanes are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 vs. ACC opponents.  The Cardinals are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss.  Louisville is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games following a double-digit home loss.  Bet Louisville Sunday. 

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Clippers -6.5 

The Los Angeles Clippers are back healthy and playing like they did to start the season where they at one point at had the best record in the Western Conference.  The Clippers are 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They should handle the Magic with ease today at home. 

The Magic will have spent last night in Los Angeles, which is always a scary proposition.  Chances are they stayed out late and won’t be feeling 100% for this 12:35 Pacific tip.  The Magic have lost four of their last five road games by double-digits, losing by 25 at Dallas, by 10 at Chicago, by 25 at Charlotte and by 17 at Minnesota. 

The Clippers have owned the Magic in recent meetings, including their 120-95 road win as 3.5-point favorites in their first meeting this season.  The Clippers have now won 10 straight meetings with the Magic by an average of 13.6 points per game. 

The Magic are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. Western Conference opponents.  The Clippers are 6-0 ATS in their last six when their opponent scores more than 100 points in their previous game.  The favorite is 21-5-2 ATS in the last 28 meetings.  Bet the Clippers Sunday. 

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers +1 

I realize the Blazers are playing the second of a back-to-back here.  But they’ll be motivated after blowing a lead to the Thunder and losing 109-111.  And I don’t worry about back-to-backs with this team as much because they have one of the best benches in the NBA.  I think they can overcome the situation considering it’s an even worse spot for the Rockets. 

Indeed, the Rockets are coming off a huge, emotional win over the Warriors on a last-second 3-pointer from James Harden in OT.  They wanted revenge on the Warriors from losing in seven games to them in the Western Conference Finals last year, and they got it.  Now I fully expect them to suffer a letdown here in this clear hangover spot for them against the Blazers tonight. 

James harden has to be running on fumes right now.  He’s being asked to do so much for this team with both Chris Paul and Eric Gordon out.  And backups PG Austin Rivers is questionable tonight with a neck injury as well.  Sooner rather than later, these injuries are going to catch up to this team, and I think it’s tonight. 

Houston is 1-8 ATS in road games after playing its last game on the road this season.  The Rockets are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.  Portland is 29-14 ATS in its last 43 home games.  I don’t expect the Rockets to show up at all tonight.  Bet the Blazers Saturday. 

20* Kansas/Iowa State Big 12 No-Brainer on Iowa State -1 

The Iowa State Cyclones have one of the best home-court advantages in the country at Hilton Coliseum.  And they clearly aren’t afraid of Kansas, having gone 5-5 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings with them.   

There’s a reason Iowa State is favored here despite being unranked with Kansas being the No. 6 team in the country.  Kansas is clearly overrated as they are 12-1, but seven of their wins have come by single-digits.  They aren’t blowing teams out, and they have been fortunate in close games.  Kansas has only played one true road game this season at Arizona State, and that was their only loss this season by a final of 76-80. 

Iowa State has done a good job of getting to 11-2 this season with all of their injuries and suspensions.  Four key players have miss significant time as Lindell Wigginton has missed 10 games, Cameron Lard has missed 7, Zoran Talley Jr. has missed 7 and Solomon Young has missed 11.  But all four are back healthy now, and this is going to be a dangerous team moving forward. 

The Cyclones are 8-2-2 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The Jayhawks are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.  Kansas is 1-6 ATS in its last seven Saturday games.  The Jayhawks are 0-4 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Cyclones are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet Iowa State Saturday. 

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Illinois State -5 

Illinois State is an experienced team that returned four starters this season.  Evansville is in rebuilding mode with just one returning starter.  But both teams sit at 7-7 on the season, so they are looked at as close to even teams.  That’s not the case at all. 

Illinois State has played the much tougher schedule this year, and they come in undervalued after losing five of their last six.  Well, those five losses have come to Ole Miss, San Diego State, Illinois-Chicago, UCF and Valpo with three of those true road games.  They also beat BYU before that, and have beaten Akron and Boise State while losing to Georgia.  Another loss came to Belmont in a true road game, which is one of the best non-power 5 teams in the country. 

Evansville has been a great home team through the years, but a terrible road team.  And that has been the case again this year.  Evansville is 0-6 in true road games this season while losing by 11.7 points per game on average. 

The Redbirds are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Illinois State is 17-7-1 ATS in its last 25 games following a loss.  The Redbirds are 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. MVC opponents.  Now that they’re into the MVC portion of the schedule, the competition gets weaker and they will get stronger.  Take Illinois State Saturday. 

15* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE DAY on TCU -7.5 

The TCU Horned Frogs are legit Big 12 title contenders this season.  They returned three starters and a ton of experience.  That has led to an 11-1 start this season.  This team continues to be grossly undervalued, as evidenced by their perfect 8-0 ATS run over their last eight games overall coming in. 

Now the Horned Frogs will be highly motivated for their home opener against Baylor, especially since they’ve been off since Christmas Day.  It’s safe to say they know Baylor inside and out having nearly two weeks to prepare for them. 

This is a rebuilding Baylor team that returned just one starter from last year.  That has been evidenced by their shaky 8-4 start to the season.  They lost to Texas Southern outright as 22-point home favorites.  They only beat Prairie View A&M by 11 as 16.5-point home favorites.  They only beat South Dakota by 6 as 14-point home favorites.  They were upset by Stephen F. Austin as 13.5-point home favorites.  Those four results alone show that they are a rebuilding team, and there have been other poor results as well. 

Baylor is 4-18 ATS in its last 22 games off a cover as a double-digit favorite.  The Bears are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a win.  Baylor is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games following an ATS win.  The Horned Frogs are 10-0-1 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS win.  TCU is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games.  The favorite is 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Horned Frogs are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall.  These last four trends combine for a perfect 31-0 system backing the Horned Frogs.  Roll with TCU Saturday. 

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Boston College +16.5 

The No. 10 Virginia Tech Hokies are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers today as 16.5-point favorites over the Boston College Eagles.  They are getting this respect due to their Top 10 ranking, but they will be hard-pressed to put away the Eagles by this margin. 

Boston College is one of the most improved teams in the country this season. They returned four starters and are off to a 9-3 start.  Most impressively, the Eagles have played their best on the road, going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS on the highway.  They beat last year’s Final Four Cinderella in Loyola 78-66 as 4-point dogs on a neutral, handled Wyoming 88-76 as 8-point favorites on a neutral, and upset DePaul 65-62 as 4.5-point road dogs. 

Boston College has clearly played the tougher schedule of these two teams, and their three losses have all come by 7 points or fewer.  Virginia Tech lost to Penn State, and their only other decent wins have come against Washington, Notre Dame and Purdue.  But Purdue and Notre Dame are way down this year. 

I think Boston College is getting docked too much for its upset loss to Hartford last time out, but it was a clear lookahead spot with their ACC opener against the Hokies on deck.  Well, the Eagles are 21-4 ATS in their last 25 road games off an upset loss as a favorite, and 15-2 ATS in their last 17 road games off an upset loss as a home favorite.  The Eagles are 7-0 ATS in their last seven trips to Virginia Tech.  The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take Boston College Saturday. 

20* Michigan State/Ohio State Big Ten Early ANNIHILATOR on Ohio State +3 

The Ohio State Buckeyes are getting zero respect at home here today as underdogs to the Michigan State Spartans.  The Buckeyes are 12-1 this season and one of the best teams in the country.  Keep in mind they went 15-3 in the Big Ten last year as well. 

Michigan State will be without one of its best players today in Joshua Langford, who is averaging 15.0 points per game this season.  His absence is a big one as he’s one of their three best players, and it’s not being factored into this line enough. 

Home-court advantage is not being factored in enough, either.  The home team is 13-1 SU in the last 14 meetings in this series.  The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Michigan State is 1-10 ATS in road games off five or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  Bet Ohio State Saturday. 

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on New York Knicks +8.5 

The betting public wants nothing to do with the Knicks right now.  That’s because they are only 1-13 SU & 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  It’s time to ‘buy low’ on the Knicks now, which I did in their last game as they covered as 14-point dogs at Denver in a 7-point loss. 

Now the Knicks are catching 8.5 points against a Los Angeles Lakers team that is without both Lebron James and Raton Rondo, and could be without Kyle Kuzma, who left last game with a back injury and didn’t return.  It’s likely he sits this one out as well, meaning the Lakers will be without their two best players in James and Kuzma. 

Teams with Lebron James on them have now gone just 1-14 SU in the last 15 games he has missed.  The Lakers managed to blow a 4th quarter lead against the Thunder the other night as they looked lost in the final period without him.  And the Knicks are as healthy as they’ve been at any point this season.  Plus, they are rested and ready to go playing on two days’ rest. 

Los Angeles tends to play to its level of competition.  The Lakers are 2-10 ATS vs. poor teams who are outscored by 3-plus points per game this season.  The Knicks are 35-17-1 ATS in their last 53 Friday games.  Los Angeles is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. 

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (New York) - in non-conference games, off three or more consecutive road losses are 33-8 (80.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  We’re getting great value on the road dog Knicks, who will be thrilled to play in Staples Center tonight on a big stage.  Take the Knicks Friday. 

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Thunder/Blazers UNDER 223 

The Thunder and Blazers played four times last season.  They combined for 223 or fewer points in all four meetings.  They averaged just 211.5 combined points per game.  They have combined for 223 or fewer in seven of their last eight meetings over the past two seasons as well.  I just think there’s a ton of value with this UNDER tonight based on the recent head-to-head series. 

Russell Westbrook is really struggling of late for the Thunder.  He has 4-for-22, 6-for-20 and 3-for-17 performances over the past two weeks.  But he and the rest of his team are making up for it on the defensive end.  In fact, the Thunder are actually 1st in the NBA in defensive efficiency this season, giving up just 99.6 points per 100 possessions.  That has been the key to their success this year. 

Oklahoma City is 10-1 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 this season, including 9-1 UNDER on the road when the line is +3 to -1 this year.  Portland is 8-1 UNDER in home games after having won four or five of their last six games this season.  The UNDER is 11-1 in Blazers last 12 vs. NBA Northwest Division opponents.  The UNDER is 41-17 in Thunder last 58 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday. 

20* Thunder/Blazers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland +1 

The Oklahoma City Thunder are coming off an emotional come from behind victory over the Lebron-less Los Angeles Lakers on Wednesday.  Paul George was booed for not signing with the Lakers in the offseason.  And he played his heart out, as did the rest of the team, yet the Thunder still needed a big finish in the 4th to beat the Lakers without Lebron.  This is now a clear letdown spot for them. 

The Thunder now run into a buzz saw in the Blazers, who are 3-1 in their last four games with road wins over the Warriors and Kings, and a blowout home win by 36 points over the 76ers.  Their only loss came the game after they beat Golden State as the Warriors got their revenge in a home-and-home situation.  That’s understandable. 

Portland has had one of the better home-court advantages in the NBA for years, and they are consistently undervalued at home.  The Blazers are 14-6 SU & 12-8 ATS at home this year.  And the Blazers own the Thunder, going 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  They should not be home dogs to the Thunder in this matchup tonight. 

Portland is 11-1 ATS in home games after going under the total in three consecutive games over the past three seasons.  It is winning by 10.7 points per game in this spot.  The Thunder are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 vs. NBA Northwest Division opponents.  Portland is 29-13 ATS in its last 42 home games dating back to last season.  Bet the Blazers Friday. 

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Clippers -4 

The Los Angeles Clippers will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost two straight coming in to the Spurs and 76ers.  Look for them to take out their frustration on the Phoenix Suns, who have the worst record in the Western Conference at 9-30 this season. 

The Clippers have been taking out their frustrations on the Suns for years.  Indeed, the Clippers are 10-0 SU & 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  They have won those 10 games by a whopping 14.3 points per game on average, and all 10 have come by 4 points or more with eight by double-digits. 

I think this line is lower than it should be simply because the Clippers only beat the Suns 123-119 on December 10th in their last meeting.  Keep in mind the Clippers were favored by 9.5 points on the road in that game, so we’re essentially getting 5.5 points of value.  And the Clippers are now as healthy as they’ve been at any point this season. 

The Clippers are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 Friday games.  The Suns are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 vs. NBA Pacific Division opponents.  Los Angeles is 14-6 ATS as a favorite this season.  Phoenix is 1-12 ATS in Friday home games over the past two seasons, losing by 16.0 points per game on average.  Bet the Clippers Friday. 

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Orlando Magic +5.5 

The Timberwolves have some key injuries right now that are really hampering them.  Starting PG Jeff Teague (ankle) has been out for weeks and remains questionable to return tonight, backup PG Derrick Rose is doubtful with an ankle injury, and now Robert Covington just popped up with an ankle injury that will be keeping him out tonight. 

All these injuries have been taking their toll on the Timberwolves.  It’s no wonder they are just 4-9 SU & 5-8 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  These aren’t big names, so the injuries aren’t getting factored into the lines enough.  And once again the Timberwolves are getting too much respect tonight as 5.5-point favorites over the Magic. 

Orlando comes in playing very well going 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four games overall.  That includes a 29-point home win over Toronto and a 28-point road win at Chicago.  Their only loss during this stretch came on the 2nd of a back-to-back at Charlotte, which is understandable.  The Magic have played their best basketball on the road this season, going 9-9 SU & 11-5-2 ATS. 

The Magic own the Timberwolves, going 7-4 SU & 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Two of those losses came in overtime.  Orlando is 7-0 ATS in road games off a road game this season.  The Magic are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games when playing on one days’ rest.  Orlando is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 trips to Minnesota.  The underdog is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Take the Magic Friday. 

15* Rockets/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State -8 

The Houston Rockets are without both Chris Paul and Eric Gordon tonight.  They will miss both of their playmaking ability against a team the caliber of the Golden State Warriors tonight.  I don’t give the Rockets much of a chance here because James Harden is going to have to do too much, and going one-on-one against Golden State does not work. 

The Rockets are starting to get some respect from oddsmakers because they’ve been able to win without Paul recently.  They are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  But four of those five games have come at home.  The Rockets are just 8-10 SU & 7-11 ATS on the road this season. 

The Warriors are as healthy as they’ve been at any point this season, and it’s starting to show.  They got their Big 4 back and hitting on all cylinders.  They are coming off back-to-back double-digit road wins at Portland (115-105) and at Phoenix (132-109).  And now they’re rested and ready to go having two days’ rest coming in. 

Plays against underdogs (Houston) - off three or more consecutive wins, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning teams are 75-38 (66.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Rockets lost their final two games to the Warriors in the seven-game series last season without Paul by 29 and 9 points.  The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take the Warriors Thursday. 

20* Raptors/Spurs TNT Thursday No-Brainer on San Antonio -1.5 

The San Antonio Spurs have been flying under the radar for weeks.  They are 10-3 SU & 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  And once again they are getting zero respect from oddsmakers tonight as only 1.5-point home favorites over the Toronto Raptors. 

It’s a Raptors team that is already without Jonas Valanciunas and could be without Kyle Lowry, who is questionable with a back injury.  Lowry has missed eight of the past nine games, and the Raptors are just 2-7 ATS without him this season. 

I think the Spurs will be extra motivated tonight, also.  They feel like they were scorned by Kawhi Leonard, and he forced his way out of San Antonio with the trade that brought DeMar DeRozan to the Alamo city.  DeRozan will also be extra motivated, and his team will have his back here. 

The Spurs are 15-5 SU & 14-6 ATS at home this season.  San Antonio is 16-4 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons.  The Spurs are 12-1 ATS in home games after covering six or seven of their last eight against the spread over the last three seasons.  The Raptors are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.  San Antonio is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet the Spurs Thursday. 

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on NC State -1.5 

The NC State Wolfpack are one of the best teams in the country that nobody is talking about.  Head coach Kevin Keatts is doing a tremendous job with his three returning starters and several key transfers that are playing big roles this season.  They are scoring 89.4 points per game on 52.6% shooting this season, and giving up just 64.8 points per game on 42.1% shooting.  They shoot 41.4% from 3-point range as a team. 

The Wolfpack are off to a 12-1 start this year.  Their only loss came on the road at Wisconsin 75-79 as 6-point underdogs.  They have beaten the likes of Auburn, Penn State and Vanderbilt along the way while going 10-3 ATS in their 13 games, a sign of just how undervalued they’ve been. 

Miami is a mess.  The Hurricanes are just 8-4 SU & 4-8 ATS this season.  They have lost to Seton Hall, Rutgers, Yale and Pennsylvania.  They also have narrow wins over Bethune-Cookman (78-70) as 27-point home favorites, Fresno State (78-76) as 8-point neutral court favorites, Houston Baptist (80-73) as 20.5-point home favorites and Campbell (73-62) as 19-point favorites.  Letting those teams hang around is a sign that they just aren’t that good. 

Miami is 1-7 ATS vs. good teams who outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game this season.  The Hurricanes are 11-29 ATS in their last 40 home games.  Miami is 7-19 ATS in its last 26 games overall.  The Hurricanes are 2-7 ATS in their last nine vs. ACC opponents.  The road team is 9-4-2 ATS in the last 15 meetings.  Roll with NC State Thursday. 

15* Thunder/Lakers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +6 

Lebron James is obviously worth a lot to the point spread, but not this much.  I think the books have adjusted too much.  This Lakers team still has a lot of talent without James, and they won without him pulling off the upset at home over the Kings last time out. 

Now the Lakers are rested and ready to win without him again tonight.  They will be playing on two days’ rest here after having Monday and Tuesday off.  They should be primed for a big effort against a Thunder team that will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and their 11th game in 20 days. 

The lack of rest for the Thunder is starting to show.  They have gone just 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS in their last five games overall.  Their only two wins came on the road at Phoenix and at home against Dallas.  They actually trailed Phoenix in the fourth quarter before pulling away late.  And the win over the Mavs was a revenge spot after losing to the Mavs the night before. 

The Lakers are 28-15 ATS after having lost two of their last three games over the past two seasons.  The Thunder are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Los Angeles is 4-1 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  The home team is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings.  Take the Lakers Wednesday. 

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Villanova -11.5 

Oddsmakers just don’t price Villanova correctly despite winning two national championships the last three years.  It’s hard to believe, but that’s been the case.  The Wildcats are 36-16 ATS in their last 52 games overall, including 20-7 ATS in their last 27 home games.  Just this season alone, the Wildcats are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall. 

Now Villanova will be highly motivated for their conference opener tonight against DePaul.  It’s a DePaul team the Wildcats have dominated.  Indeed, Villanova is 16-0 SU in its last 16 meetings with DePaul.  In fact, The Wildcats have won 11 of their last 12 meetings with the Blue Demons by 13 or more points.  They won by 18 on the road and by 31 at home in their two meetings last year. 

DePaul has an 8-4 record thus far, but they are clearly not that good.  Their eight wins have come against Bethune-Cookman, Morgan State, PennState, Cleveland State, Florida A&M, Chicago State, Illinois-Chicago and Incarnate Word.  They have lost to the four best teams they’ve faced in Notre Dame, Northwestern, Boston College and Xavier.  They went 0-4 SU & 0-3-1 ATS against those four teams.  And now Villanova will be the best team they’ve faced yet. 

Villanova is 9-0 ATS vs. teams who shoot 45% or better and allow 42% or less over the last two seasons.  The Wildcats are 12-1 ATS vs. good rebounding teams who outrebound their opponents by 4-plus boards per game over the last two seasons.  Villanova is 8-0 ATS in its last eight home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  These three trends combine for a 29-1 system backing the Wildcats tonight.  Roll with Villanova Wednesday. 

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Pelicans +1 

The New Orleans Pelicans are as healthy as they have been all season.  They’ll be a dangerous team moving forward because of it as they sit at just 17-21 and undervalued because of their record.  But that record is largely due to their lack of health. 

Anthony Davis, Nikola Mirotic and Elfrid Payton have all missed significant time this season.  But Davis is healthy, and Payton has only played in seven games but just recently returned.  They played great with him to start the season, and his absence has been big.  Mirotic is the only player on the injury report now. 

Speaking of injuries, the Nets have a plethora of them right now.  They have been without leading scorer Caris LeVert and have been without him for some time.  But now they are without two key role players in Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (9.9 PPG, 5.8 RPG) and Allen Crabbe (9.5 PPG).  The strength of this team was their depth, but now that depth is being really tested. 

The Pelicans have owned the Nets, going 9-1 SU in the last 10 meetings.  And that’s significant because they just have to win the game to cover tonight as they are actually underdogs.  This is one of the biggest line mistakes I’ve seen this season.  Bet the Pelicans Wednesday. 

15* Missouri Valley PLAY OF THE DAY on Drake -2 

The Drake Bulldogs have been one of the most underrated teams in the country this season.  They are 11-2 SU & 10-1 ATS this season, including 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in all road games.  And once again they’re not getting the respect they deserve here as only 2-point favorites over Evansville. 

This is an Evansville team that returned just one starter this season and simply is not very good.  The Purple Aces are just 6-7 this season despite playing a very easy schedule.  They don’t have an impressive win yet as they were favored in five of those six victories. 

Drake is 10-0 ATS in its last 10 games overall.  It has upset wins over Boise State, North Dakota State, New Mexico State and San Diego with three of those four coming on the road.  Its two losses this season have come on the road to Colorado and Iowa State, and they played Iowa State very tough and only lost by 9 as 13.5-point dogs in a game that they actually led in the second half before the Cyclones pulled away late.  They’ll handle the Purple Aces tonight.  Take Drake. 

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Maryland -1 

It should be a rowdy atmosphere at Maryland tonight with No. 24 Nebraska coming to down.  And I think it’s telling that Maryland is favored in this game, as they should be despite being unranked.  They should take down the Huskers at home tonight. 

Maryland is 10-3 this season with its three losses coming to Virginia (71-76), Purdue (60-62) and Seton Hall (74-78) by a combined 11 points.  That’s how close they are to being 13-0.  And if they were, they would be a much bigger favorite tonight.  None of those were bad losses. 

Nebraska is 11-2, but it is getting too much credit for its wins over Oklahoma State and Clemson.  Both of those two teams are way down this season.  They lost to the two best teams they’ve faced in Minnesota (by 7) and Texas Tech (by 18).  And I think Maryland is close to being as good as both those teams, if not better. 

Maryland is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 home games after covering four of their last five ATS.  The Terrapins are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  The days of Nebraska being undervalued are over.  They’ve gone 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games overall.  The betting public has caught on by now.  Bet Maryland Wednesday. 

15* 76ers/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -2.5 

Lou Williams returned from injury and the Clippers have been playing some great basketball since.  They have gone 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games since Williams came back.  One of those losses was a 2-point loss at Golden State as 11-point dogs.  

I expect the Clippers to be highly motivated for a win off their upset home loss to the Spurs last time out.  They should be rested and ready to go after having the last two days off.  They also have two more days off following this game, so I expect them to give max effort given that this is their only game in a five-day span. 

Meanwhile, the Clippers are in a tougher spot here playing their 4th consecutive road game.  They have a 5th tomorrow night against the Suns as well, so they’ll be looking to conserve some energy and play their starters less minutes.  They are coming off an ugly 95-125 road loss to the Blazers and are just 7-11 SU & 6-12 ATS in road games this season. 

The Clippers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Los Angeles is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 home games.  Philadelphia is 6-15 ATS in its last 21 road games.  The 76ers are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Roll with the Clippers Tuesday. 

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on New York Knicks +14 

The Knicks could not possibly be more undervalued than they are right now.  They have gone 1-12 SU & 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games overall coming in.  So we’ll ‘buy low’ on them, knowing that the betting public wants nothing to do with them.  That forces oddsmakers to set their lines higher than they should be, and we’re getting some great value on them as 14-point dogs now. 

The Nuggets have been overvalued here down the stretch.  They have gone 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall, losing by 21 to the Clippers, by 8 to the Spurs, only beating the Spurs by 3 and the Suns by 4.  And now they’re being asked to lay a whopping 14 points to the Knicks tonight.  It’s simply too much. 

Plays on any team (New York) - in a game involving two teams who score at least 102 points per game, off three straight losses by 10 points or more are 54-24 (69.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Knicks Tuesday. 

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Mavericks/Thunder UNDER 224 

This is one of my favorite situations to bet UNDERS.  It’s a home-and-home situation.  The Mavs just played the Thunder last night in Dallas, and now they play again tonight in Oklahoma City.  Teams obviously get familiar with one another in these home-and-home situations, and it tends to be lower scoring in the 2nd meeting because familiarity favors defense. 

They only combined for 208 points last night.  And now we’re seeing a total of 224 for the rematch.  This is way too high, and there’s clearly some value with the UNDER.  That’s especially the case when you look at the head-to-head series between these teams. 

Indeed, the Mavs and Thunder have now combined for 211 or fewer points at the end of regulation in eight of their last nine meetings.  They have averaged just 201.8 combined points in those nine meetings, which is roughly 22 points less than this 224-point total.  It’s simply too high. 

The UNDER is 42-20-1 in Mavericks last 63 games following a win.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Mavericks last 10 Monday games.  Dallas is 21-6 UNDER off a win by 6 points or less over the last three seasons.  Oklahoma City is 54-36 UNDER when revenging a loss over the last three years.  Take the UNDER in this game Monday. 

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Memphis Grizzlies +5 

The Houston Rockets are already without Chris Paul.  And now they will be without Eric Gordon, who suffered a knee injury last game.  This team has been terrible without Paul, and they can’t afford to lose Gordon.  Paul and Gordon combine to average 30.3 points and 10.2 assists per game.  They just aren’t deep enough to overcome their absences. 

Memphis is fully healthy and one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season.  They are so much better when both Mike Conley and Marc Gasol are healthy, and they have added some nice pieces around them.  And this is a rested Grizzlies team that will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days and only their 3rd game in 8 days. 

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Memphis) - a well rested team playing four or less games in 10 days, in December games are 44-21 (67.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Grizzlies Monday. 

15* NBA Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Dallas Mavericks +3 

The Dallas Mavericks have one of the biggest home/road splits in the NBA.  They are 14-3 at home compared to 2-15 on the road.  They should not be home underdogs to the Thunder tonight considering they are 13-4 ATS at home and winning by 8.0 points per game on average in Dallas this season. 

The Mavericks are certainly happy to be back home after playing six of their last eight on the road.  That’s a big reason why they went just 1-7 in their last eight games overall.  But they suffered several close losses to great teams along the way, losing by 4 at the Clippers, by 4 at the Warriors, by 3 at the Blazers and by 2 at the Pelicans.  It’s safe to say they’ll be highly motivated for a win tonight to get back in the win column. 

The Mavericks have had the Thunder’s number in recent meetings.  Indeed, the Mavericks are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  That includes 111-96 and 97-81 victories in their last two home meetings with the Thunder.  They are 3-2 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five home meetings with both of their losses coming by a single point.  They have outscored the Thunder by an average of 8.8 points per game in those five meetings in Dallas. 

The Mavericks are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 home games overall.  The Thunder are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 Sunday games.  The home team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Dallas is 8-0 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3 this season.  Take the Mavericks Sunday. 

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -3.5 

The Miami Heat are flying under the radar right now.  They have gone 10-4 SU & 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall to get to .500 on the season.  I expect them to continue to roll tonight at home against the Minnesota Timberwolves. 

The Timberwolves have started to struggle of late.  They are 3-7 SU & 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  That includes losses to the Pistons, Hawks, Suns and Kings.  A big reason for their struggles has been the injury to starting PG Jeff Teague.  And now they are expected to be without backup PG Derrick Rose, who has been absolutely huge for them this season. 

I always like fading teams who spent Saturday night in big cities.  Well, there’s not many more distracting cities than South Beach, Miami.  You can bet these Timberwolves players were out partying last night.  They won’t be focused for this game at all.  Plus, the Timberwolves are just 4-13 SU & 7-10 ATS on the road this season. 

Minnesota is 1-9 ATS in road games after a combined score of 235 or more points over the last two seasons.  The Heat are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following a win.  Miami is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games overall.  The Heat are 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  Miami is 8-1 ATS in its last nine vs. Western Conference opponents.  Bet the Heat Sunday. 

20* Spurs/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -3.5 

Lou Williams returned from injury and the Clippers have been rolling ever since.  They are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall with their only loss coming 127-129 at Golden State as 11-point underdogs.  I think they continue rolling tonight as short home favorites over the Spurs. 

The spot favors the Clippers.  Both the Spurs and Clippers are on back-to-backs, but the Clippers don’t have to travel after facing the Lakers at Staples Center last night.  The Spurs do have to travel after their 99-102 loss at Denver last night in the altitude.  Playing in high elevation last night will have certainly taken its toll on the Spurs, and don’t be surprised if Greg Popovich rests a starter or two tonight. 

The Spurs have one of the biggest home/road splits in the NBA.  They are 14-5 at home compared to just 5-12 on the road.  They are giving up a whopping 114.9 points per game and 48.5% shooting on the road.  The Clippers are 12-4 SU & 11-5 ATS at home this year, scoring 117.3 points per game and shooting 47.6% from the floor. 

The Spurs are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 road games following two more more consecutive ATS wins.  Los Angeles is 9-1 ATS in home games with a total of 220 or more this season.  The Spurs are 8-18-1 ATS in their last 27 road games overall.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Clippers Saturday. 

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Warriors/Blazers UNDER 225 

This is one of my favorite situations to bet UNDERS.  The Warriors and Blazers are in a home-and-home situation here.  They just played at Golden State on Thursday, and now they’ll play each other again in Portland on Saturday. 

In these situations, teams are obviously familiar with one another after just playing.  And that always seems to favor the defenses.  Portland beat Golden State 110-109 (OT) on Thursday in a game that only had 204 combined points at the end of regulation.  And now the total is 225 in the rematch?  It’s simply too high. 

Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is 200 or more (Golden State) - revenging a loss vs. opponent as a home favorite of 7 or more against an opponent that’s off an upset win as an underdog are 31-9 (77.5%) over the last five seasons.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Utah +7.5 

Nevada went into Christmas Break feeling fat and happy due to their 12-0 record and No. 6 national ranking.  And with that ranking comes expectations for oddsmakers that are very tough to live up to.  It started to show prior to the break. 

Nevada has gone 0-3-1 ATS in its last four games overall.  They won all four games straight up, but all four were by 8 points or less, including three by 6 points or fewer.  And it’s not like it was that tough of a schedule as the four opponents were ASU, Grand Canyon, South Dakota State and Akron.  Now they are laying 7.5 points on the road to Utah, which is simply too much. 

Utah will be chomping at the bit to try and get a win over a Top 10 team here.  The Utes have had one of the best home-court advantages in the country over time as well.  They are 5-0 at home this season and winning by nearly 20 points per game on average. 

Utah is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 home games off an ATS loss.  Utah’s head coach s 23-9 ATS in Saturday home games as the coach of the Utes.  Take Utah Saturday. 

20* CBB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on BYU +10 

I like the situation for BYU today.  They return from Christmas Break motivated after losing two hard-fought games against UNLV and San Diego State in their two games prior to the break.  They’ll be laying it all on the line to get a win today. 

Mississippi State returns from Christmas Break feeling fat and happy with their 11-1 record and No. 19 ranking nationally.  There were signs going into the break that were not good.  They only beat Wofford by 11 and Wright State by 4 both at home in their final two games before the break. 

Now the Bulldogs take a big step up in class here against BYU.  Home teams don’t have much of an advantage over Christmas Break because students return home to see their families, and the arenas just aren’t as rowdy.  The Bulldogs won’t enjoy the normal home-court advantage they’ll get when the students return to class. 

Mississippi State is 2-9 ATS after playing two consecutive home games over the last two seasons.  The Bulldogs are 2-9 ATS vs. good offensive teams that score 77-plus points per game over the last two years.  Plays on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (BYU) - explosive offensive team that scores 84-plus points per game, after a combined score of 165 or more in two straight games are 26-5 (83.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet BYU Saturday. 

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +7 

It’s nice to see what the Phoenix Suns are capable of when they’re fully engaged and healthy.  And that has come to fruition here over the last couple weeks.  The Suns are 5-2 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall with their two losses both coming on the road by a combined 11 points. 

They have played so well despite five of their last seven games on the road.  They have pulled off four outright upsets.  They beat the Mavs by 10 as 6-point home dogs and the Timberwolves by 8 as 7.5-point home dogs.  They also went on the road and won by 8 at Boston as 11.5-point dogs and by 2 at Orlando as 5.5-point dogs.  And now the Suns are still getting no respect from oddsmakers as 7-point home dogs tonight. 

Phoenix will be playing with triple-revenge as this will be the 4th and final meeting between these teams.  From October 28th to November 17th in a span of three weeks, the Thunder beat the Suns three times by 7, 17 and 10 points.  The Suns were not playing well at all then, but this is a different team now and they’ll be highly motivated to get a win to avoid the season sweep. 

The Suns are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Phoenix is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games when its opponent allows 100 points or more in its previous game.  Roll with the Suns Friday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Orlando Magic +7 

It’s time to ‘buy low’ on the Magic tonight at home.  They have lost four straight both SU and ATS and are just 1-7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  And now they are catching 7 points at home because of their recent struggles.  I expect them to be max motivated with the Eastern Conference-leading Raptors coming to town tonight. 

The Raptors are certainly vulnerable right now.  They have been overvalued for a month now due to having the best record in the East.  The Raptors are just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  They are also just 6-6 SU in their last 12 games. 

The reason the Raptors have been vulnerable of late is due to all their injuries.  They have been without both Jonas Valanciunas and Norman Powell for a while now, and Kyle Lowry has sat out a few gams with a back injury.  Lowry is their most important player as they’ve been able to win consistently without Kawhi Leonard, but not when Lowry has been out of the lineup.  They are just 1-5 ATS in the six games Lowry has missed. 

The Magic will be looking to avenge a 91-93 home loss as identical 7-point dogs to the Raptors on November 20th in their first and only meeting this season.  The Magic are 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings, and 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings in Orlando.  The home team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Magic are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents. 

Plays on underdogs (Orlando) - after being beaten by the spread by 30 or more points total in their last three games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team are 46-19 (70.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. Take the Magic Friday. 

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -4.5 

I absolutely love the spot for the Charlotte Hornets tonight.  This is a home-and-home situation, and the Hornets lost 132-134 at Brooklyn on Wednesday.  And now they get to play two days later with the revenge-minded Hornets only laying 4.5 points at home over the Nets tonight.  They’ll get their revenge with a win and cover at home here. 

It’s definitely time to ’sell high’ on the Nets, who have gone 9-1 SU in their last 10 games overall.  That’s why this line is lower than it should be.  They have mostly beaten up on a weak schedule during this stretch with seven of their 10 games coming at home as well.  We’ll ‘buy low’ on the Hornets, who are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall. 

The Hornets are 12-7 at home this year.  Their offense has been explosive at home, scoring 114.3 points per game on 47.3% shooting.  The Nets are only scoring 106.8 points per game on the road on 44.2% shooting this season. 

Plays on home favorites (Charlotte) - revenging a loss where opponent scores 100 or more points, off two or more consecutive road losses are 75-35 (68.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Hornets Friday. 

15* 76ers/Jazz TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 219 

The Utah Jazz remain one of the best defensive teams in the NBA.  They are 6th in defensive efficiency.  They have really clamped down on the defensive end of late, holding seven straight opponents to 107 points or fewer and giving up an average of just 96.9 points per game during this stretch. 

I think this total has been inflated due to the fact that the 76ers are coming off three straight overs, including their 114-121 (OT) loss to the Celtics on Christmas Day.  But I had the under in that game as well and it would have gone under if not for overtime, so that was a bad beat.  They had 216 combined points at the end of regulation. 

The UNDER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in this series.  They have averaged just 187.4 combined points per game in those 10 meetings.  The Jazz and 76ers have combined for 205 or fewer points in 14 of their last 15 meetings.  They have topped 219 combined points just once in their last 43 meetings dating back to 1996.  That makes for a 42-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight’s total set of 219.5. 

The UNDER is 7-0 in Jazz last seven games overall.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Jazz last five home games.  The UNDER is 5-0 in 76ers last five vs. a team with a losing record.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Jazz last seven after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Utah.  These five trends combine for a perfect 28-0 system backing the UNDER as well.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Thursday. 

15* Lakers/Kings NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Sacramento -3.5 

The Los Angeles Lakers are coming off a huge 127-101 upset win as 9-point underdogs over the defending champion Golden State Warriors on Christmas Day.  This is the ultimate letdown spot for them tonight as now they hit the road to take on the Sacramento Kings two days later. 

Making matters worse for the Lakers is the fact that they lost LeBron James to a groin injury in that win, and now James will be sitting this game out.  But the injuries don’t stop there.  The Lakers are also expected to be without Rajon Rondo and Michael Beasley, and their top two centers in Tyson Chandler and JaVale McGee are questionable. 

Yes, the Kings are playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after their loss to the Clippers last night, but all 13 players saw action and nobody played more than 30 minutes in that game.  So they should be fresh and ready to go with the Lakers coming to town, especially since they had two days off prior to that Clippers game.  This is also a very young team that can handle these back-to-back situations better than most teams. 

The Lakers are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games following a win.  The Kings are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.  Sacramento is 15-6 ATS in its last 21 games following an ATS loss.  The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Kings are 14-2 ATS when the total is 220 to 229.5 this season. 

Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Sacramento) - revenging a same-season loss vs. opponent that’s off a win by 20 points or more over a division rival are 48-19 (71.6%) ATS since 1996.  Take the Kings Thursday. 

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on New York Knicks +14.5 

This is one of my favorite situations in the NBA.  It’s a home-and-home situation where these teams just met in New York on Christmas Day, and now they’ll meet in Milwaukee two days later.  I always like backing the team that lost the first game in these home-and-home situations, and that would be the Knicks here Thursday. 

After losing 95-109 as 10-point home underdogs in the first meeting, the Knicks are now catching 14.5 points in the rematch.  It’s simply too much.  They’ll be the more motivated team after losing that first meeting, while the Bucks won’t be motivated at all after just beating the Knicks on National TV.  I expect the Bucks to simply be going through the motions. 

The Knicks played the Bucks tough outside of the 3rd quarter, where they were outscored 36-22.  That proved to be the difference in the game.  And the Knicks haven’t lost by more than 14 points to the Bucks yet this season.  They lost by 11 in their first meeting in Milwaukee on October 22nd, won outright as 8-point home dogs by 2 in their 2nd meeting on December 1st, then obviously lost by 14 two days ago.  In fact, the Bucks haven’t won any of their last 11 meetings with the Knicks by more than 14 points, making for an 11-0 system backing the Knicks pertaining to this 14.5-point spread. 

New York is 22-11 ATS when revenging a home loss vs. opponent over the last two seasons.  Milwaukee is 21-48 ATS in its last 69 games as a favorite of 10 or more points.  The Bucks are 14-29 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last three seasons.  Milwaukee is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games following a win.  The underdog is 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings.  The road team is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet the Knicks Thursday. 

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -3.5 

The San Antonio Spurs have been flying under the radar over the past three weeks.  They have gone 7-2 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.  They are better than they get credit for, and I’ll gladly lay the short number with them at home here tonight against the Denver Nuggets. 

The Nuggets are simply getting too much respect from the books after going 11-3 SU & 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  But they are missing three starters in Gary Harris, Paul Millsap and Will Barton, and it’s simply going to be hard for them to keep up this pace now.  They just lost by 21 last time out to the Clippers on the road, and they’ll be hard-pressed to keep this game even competitive against the Spurs. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 6-0 SU in the last six meetings.  The Spurs are a perfect 11-0 SU In their last 11 home meetings with the Nuggets.  They have won their last eight home meetings with the Nuggets by a whopping 17.1 points per game on average. 

The Spurs are 8-1 ATS in home games vs. good offensive teams that score 110-plus points per game this season.  They are beating these teams by 16.9 points per game on average.  Denver is 1-10 ATS in road games vs. Southwest Division opponents over the last two seasons.  They are losing by 12.7 points pre game in this spot.  San Antonio is 22-8 ATS in its last 30 home games overall.  Bet the Spurs Wednesday. 

15* Blazers/Jazz ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 215 

I really like taking UNDERS in games between teams that just recently played.  Well, this game fits that mold as the Blazers just hosted the Jazz on December 21st.  So it will be their 2nd meeting in 5 days, and familiarity definitely favors defense.  Look for a low-scoring affair between the Jazz and Blazers tonight. 

They combined for only 210 points in that meeting on December 21st, continuing a trend of what has been a low-scoring series.  In fact, the Jazz and Blazers have now combined for 211 or fewer points at the end of regulation in eight consecutive meetings.  They have averaged just 195.5 combined points per game at the end of regulation in those eight games, which is nearly 20 points less than tonight’s posted total of 215. 

The UNDER is 10-1 in Blazers last 11 vs. NBA Northwest Division opponents.  The UNDER is 7-3 in Blazers last 10 games overall.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Jazz last six games overall.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Jazz last six after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday. 

15* Lakers/Warriors ABC ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles +9 

The Golden State Warriors have been overvalued all season.  That’s what happens when you win three titles in the last four years.  They are just 14-20 ATS on the season.  And they have been even more overvalued since getting Stephen Curry and Draymond Green back in the lineup.  Asking them to win by double-digits to cover this number against the Lakers is simply asking too much. 

Indeed, the Warriors are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They only won by 8 as 9.5-point home favorites over the Timberwolves, lost outright to the Raptors as 8-point home favorites, only won by 5 as 7.5-point road favorites at Sacramento, lost by 5 as 2-point favorites at Utah, won by 4 as 11-point home favorites against the Mavericks and won by 2 as 11-point home favorites against the Clippers. 

The Lakers played the Warriors very tough last season. They went 3-1 ATS and didn’t lose once by more than 11 points.  They took the Warriors to overtime twice, and only lost by 7 points at Golden State as 11.5-point dogs.  And now they have Lebron James and are way better than last year’s Lakers.  And you can bet James wants to prove to the Warriors that he now has a team that can beat them in the playoffs. 

The Warriors are 1-13 ATS in Tuesday games over the last two seasons.  Golden State is 2-10 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  The Lakers are 24-10 ATS vs. good teams who outscore their opponents by 3-plus points per game over the last two seasons.  The Warriors are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.  Take the Lakers Tuesday.

20* 76ers/Celtics ABC No-Brainer on UNDER 224 

The Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers are very familiar with one another.  That’s because they played five games in the playoffs last year with the Celtics winning the series 4-1.  And now this will be their second meeting of 2018 already, so this will be their 11th meeting over the past two seasons.  Familiarity favors UNDERS. 

The 76ers and Celtics have combined for 224 or fewer points in 13 of their last 14 meetings, and 218 or fewer in 12 of those 14 games.  They have averaged just 200.8 combined points per game in their last 11 meetings, which is roughly 23 points less than today’s posted total of 224.  They combined for just 192 points in their first meeting this season on October 16th.  The books have really missed their mark badly on this total. 

The Celtics rank 3rd in defensive efficiency this season, while the 76ers are solid as well at 12th.  Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (Boston) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent that’s off two straight wins by 10 points or more are 34-7 (82.9%) since 1996.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday. 

15* Thunder/Rockets ABC Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 222 

Based on season averages, there is value with the UNDER in this game tonight.  Especially since the Rockets are without Chris Paul as they haven’t been nearly as efficient offensively without him.  The Rockets average 217.7 combined points per game this season, while the Thunder average 217.6 combined points per game. 

The Thunder are actually 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency this season, giving up just 102.0 points per 100 possessions.  But they are just 18th in offensive efficiency.  The Rockets have been forced to play at a slower pace this season because their personnel just isn’t as good.  In fact, the Rockets are 29th in pace at just 96.79 possessions per game.  Only the Grizzlies play slower.  They will control the tempo playing at home today. 

The Rockets and Thunder have combined for 222 or fewer points in five of their last six games.  The UNDER is 5-1 in those six games.  They have averaged just 209.0 combined points per game in their last five meetings, which is roughly 13 points less than today’s posted total of 222.  And they combined for just 178 points in their only meeting this season back on November 8th. 

Houston is a perfect 8-0 UNDER against Northwest Division opponents this season, averaging just 197.6 combined points per game against them.  Oklahoma City is 8-1 UNDER in road games after a combined score of 225 points or more this season.  The Thunder are 12-1 UNDER in Tuesday road games over the last three seasons.  Oklahoma City is 9-0 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 this season.  Houston is 19-5 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons.  Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* Bucks/Knicks ESPN Early Riser on New York +10 

The Milwaukee Bucks are way overvalued as 10-point road favorites over the New York Knicks on Christmas Day.  This is a rare chance for the Knicks to showcase their talents on National TV, and they’ll be highly motivated for a victory here Tuesday.  I expect one of their biggest efforts of the season. 

We’ll ‘buy low’ on the Knicks, who are certainly undervalued after going 1-9 SU & 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  But they are finally as healthy as they have been at any other point this season with only Kristaps Porzingis expected to miss this game.  And we’ll ’sell high’ on the Bucks, who are are off to a fast 22-10 start and sitting in 2nd place in the Eastern Conference. 

The Knicks have played the Bucks tough in their two meetings this season.  They covered as 11.5-point road underdogs in an 11-point loss.  And they won outright in overtime 136-134 as 8-point home dogs to the Bucks on December 1st.  I think the Knicks will have an excellent chance to win this game outright as well, let alone stay within this massive 10-point spread at home. 

Milwaukee is 20-48 ATS in its last 68 games as a favorite of 10 or more points.  Plays against favorites of 10 or more points (Milwaukee) - an excellent offensive team that scores more than 102 points per game against a bad defensive team that allows more than 102 points per game, after scoring 90 points or less last game are 25-6 (80.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Knicks Tuesday.

15* Bucknell/TCU ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on Bucknell +13 

Bucknell got to play before TCU last night.  TCU finished its game after midnight.  I always think that’s an advantage to play before your opponent in these tournaments.  You get more rest, plus you get to watch your opponent after the game and scout them.  It seems obvious, but I don’t think it gets factored enough into the line. 

We’ll certainly ‘sell high’ on TCU, which is now 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall since getting upset by Lipscomb 64-73 as 12.5-point home favorites on November 20th.  But those six wins have come against some bad opponents.  Bucknell will give them more of a run for their money than this line suggests. 

Bucknell has done well to get to 5-5 this season.  Check out these upsets the’ve pulled off.  Bucknell won 88-85 as 10-point road dogs at St. Bonaventure, 69-61 as 10.5-point road dogs at Vermont, 92-79 as a pick’ ‘em at LaSalle, and yesterday they upset Rhode Island 84-82 as 6-point dogs.  And I haven’t even mentioned their most impressive performance yet, which came in a losing effort.  Bucknell only lost 71-73 as 19-point road dogs at Ohio State, which is one of the best teams in the country. 

Bucknell is 20-9 ATS in its last 29 games overall.  The Bison are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games vs. good passing teams that average 16 or more assists per game.  Bucknell is 8-1 ATS vs. good teams who outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game over the last three seasons.  The Bison are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  TCU is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games after forcing 19 or more turnovers in three consecutive games coming in.  Roll with Bucknell Sunday. 

20* Clippers/Warriors NBA Sunday No-Brainer on Los Angeles +10.5 

The Clippers are undervalued right now.  They lost six of seven and a large part of that streak was due to the injury to Lou Williams.  But Williams returned two games ago, and it’s no surprise the Clippers have won their two games since his return by a combined 25 points over Dallas and Denver.  Williams is the team’s third-leading scorer at 17.1 PPG and a vital part of their team as he injects life into the bench and closes out games.  Williams has 32 points and 15 assists combined in his two games since returning. 

Both the Clippers and Warriors played last night, so both will be on the 2nd of a back-to-back, but that favors the Clippers.  They are a deep team which has been a big reason for their success, largely due to how well Williams plays off the bench.  The Warriors rely heavily on their big four and play them big minutes, and there’s no doubt that Clippers are the more rested team. 

The Clippers blew out the Nuggets by 21 points last night so they were able to rest their starters.  Only one player played more than 26 minutes for them, and that was youngster Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.  Meanwhile, the Warriors were in a dog fight with the Mavericks last night, winning 120-116.  That will have taken its toll as their big four in Curry (39:29), Durant (36:51), Green (35:15) and Thompson (33:00) all were forced to play big minutes.  They won’t have much left in the tank for the deep Clippers tonight. 

I also think it’s a big look-ahead spot for the Warriors.  They have the much-anticipated Christmas Day game with Lebron James and the Lakers on deck.  The Clippers will be the more motivated team tonight as everyone gets up for the defending champs, and they already beat them 121-116 as 4-point home dogs in their first meeting this season.  And they tend to play the Warriors tough on the road as their two meetings before that they only lost by 7 as 10.5-point road dogs and upset the Warriors by 19 as 12-point road dogs. 

The Clippers are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 road games after covering three of their last four ATS over the last three seasons.  Los Angeles is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 vs. NBA Pacific Division opponents.  The Clippers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Warriors are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 vs. Western Conference opponents.  Golden State is 9-19 ATS in its last 28 Sunday games.  The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet the Clippers Sunday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Boston Celtics -6.5 

The Boston Celtics had a lengthy team meeting after Friday night’s home loss to the Milwaukee Bucks.  It was necessary after the Celtics suffered their third consecutive loss, which actually followed up an eight-game losing streak.  I look for them to respond in a big way tonight at home against the Hornets now that they have cleared the air amongst themselves. 

I think a big reason for their recent struggles has been the absence of center Al Horford, who has missed the past six games with a sore knee.  But Horford is expected to return tonight, and he means everything to this team.  He is a tremendous passer who can stretch the floor and open things up in the lane for all of their other playmakers like Irving, Tatum and Brown.  Marcus Morris has missed the past two games and could return tonight as well as he is listed as questionable.  They are close to full strength now. 

The Celtics simply own the Hornets, going 7-1 SU & 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight meetings.  Those seven wins have come by an average of 10.4 points per game.  They actually lost by 5 at Charlotte in their lone meeting this season.  But the Celtics are 30-10 ATS when revenging a loss over the last two seasons.  They are 27-7 ATS when revenging a loss where opponent scored more than 100 points over the last two seasons.  Boston is 23-8 ATS in its last 31 home games.  Roll with the Celtics Sunday. 

15* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE DAY on Indiana Pacers -9.5 

This one is about as obvious as it gets tonight.  The Wizards are coming off a triple-overtime victory over the Suns yesterday.  They won’t have much left in the tank for the Pacers tonight.  Bradley Beal (53:56), Trevor Ariza (54:10), Jeff Green (48:58) and Tomas Satorasnky (48:07) all plays huge minutes last night.  Otto Porter is out due to injury, and John Wall is questionable after missing last night with an illness. 

The Pacers come in playing very well.  They have gone 8-2 SU & 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Their two losses during this stretch came by a combined 4 points, and one was on the road to Toronto.  Seven of their eight wins have come by 8 points or more, including five by double-digits.  Given the awful situation for the Wizards tonight off the triple-OT game, the Pacers should have no problem beating them by double-digits to get the cover. 

The Wizards are just 4-14 SU & 4-14 ATS on the road this season, getting outscored by 10.8 points per game on average.  The Pacers are 28-8 ATS after having lost two of their last three games over the past two seasons.  Washington is 0-10 ATS in road games after a combined score of 215 points or more in three straight games this season.  The Wizards are 0-7 ATS in road games vs. good shooting teams who make 46% of their shots or better this season.  Washington is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games when playing on zero rest.  Take the Pacers Sunday. 

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Heat +3 

The Miami Heat are undervalued once again as home underdogs to the Milwaukee Bucks tonight.  This is a Heat team that has gone 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games despite playing six of those seven on the road.   

The Heat beat the Rockets 101-99 Thursday as 3-point dogs in their only home game during this stretch.  And now they are certainly rested and ready to go as this will be just the 2nd game in 6 days for Miami.  Look for another big performance from them here with the Bucks coming to down. 

The Bucks are a tired team and are in a clearly letdown spot.  Milwaukee will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, their 3rd game in 4 days and their 8th game in 14 days.  They are coming off a huge 120-107 win in Boston in a revenge game after the Celtics knocked them out of the playoffs last year.  They won’t be nearly as motivated to face the Heat tonight as they were the Celtics. 

Few teams have been able to shut down Giannis and company like the Heat have.  Indeed, the Heat are a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings with the Bucks.  They have held the Bucks to just 90 points per game in those five meetings and have outscored them by an average of 11.8 points per game.  Given the favorable situation for the Heat and the bad one for the Bucks, their domination of this series will continue tonight.  Take the Heat Saturday. 

20* Illinois/Missouri Rivalry GAME OF THE WEEK on Missouri -1 

It’s time for Illinois’ five-game winning streak in this rivalry series to come to an end.  All five of those wins over Missouri have come by 9 points or less and by a combined 24 points, or an average of 4.8 points per game.  So the Tigers have suffered heartbreaking loss after heartbreaking loss in this series. 

It’s safe to say Missouri will be max motivated to end this streak.  And for once, they finally have the team to do it.  I have no doubt the Tigers are the better team this year and it will show on the court Saturday night. 

Missouri returned three starters and a ton of talent.  The Tigers are off to a 7-3 start this season with their only losses coming to Iowa State, Kansas State and Temple with two of those on the road.  They upset both UCF and Xavier at home, and also upset Oregon State on a neutral.  They have been battle-tested and I was very impressed with their 15-point win over Xavier last time out, their fourth straight victory and third straight by 15-plus points. 

Illinois only returned one starter this season in a rebuilding year.  That has been evident with a 4-7 start to the season with their only wins coming against Evansville, Mississippi Valley State, UNLV and East Tennessee State.  All four of those wins came at home.  Illinois is 0-6 in all road games true and neutral this season. 

Missouri makes 38.6% of their 3-point attempts this season.  Illinois is 2-10 ATS in road games vs. good 3-point shooting teams who make 37% or more of their attempts over the last three seasons.  The Fighting Illii are 4-12 ATS following an ATS win over the last two years.  The Tigers are 6-1-2 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Bet Missouri Saturday. 

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Clippers -1 

I think the Clippers are back to being undervalued now after losing six of their last eight overall since being in first place in the Western Conference.  But a big reason for those struggles was the loss of perennial 6th man of the year Lou Williams.  But he is back health now and returned for their win over the Mavericks on Thursday. 

The Nuggets are overvalued due to winning four straight and 11 of their last 13 overall coming in.  They have managed to get by despite key injuries with three starters out in Paul Millsap, Gary Harris and Will Barton.  But I still believe it’s going to catch up with them sooner rather than later.  And their four-game winning streak was all at home, and now they hit the road here. 

The Clippers are 10-4 SU & 9-5 ATS at home this season.  The Nuggets are 13-3 at home compared to just 8-6 on the road.  And I have no doubt the Clippers will be the more motivated team here after their recent struggles.  They also will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days so they are rested and ready to go. 

Denver is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 road games following two consecutive home games.  The Clippers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Los Angeles is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 home games.  The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Clippers Saturday. 

15* Ohio State/UCLA CBS Saturday No-Brainer on Ohio State -6 

Ohio State is one of the better teams in the country this season.  They are off to a 10-1 start under Chris Holtmann, who is already doing big things for the Buckeyes just as he did at Butler before him.  They went 25-9 last season and 15-3 in Big Ten play and certainly are a contender to win the Big Ten this season. 

UCLA is a mess under Steve Alford.  The Bruins are just 7-4 this season.  They lost by 20 to Michigan State, by 16 to North Carolina, by 29 to Cincinnati and were upset by Beltmont.  All seven of their wins have come at home, while they are 0-3 in either neutral or true road games. 

That 29-point loss at Cincinnati is a important.  That’s because that gives these teams a common opponent.  Well, Ohio State won 64-56 as 4.5-point dogs at Cincinnati earlier this season.  IUPU-Fort Wayne is also a common opponent.  Ohio State beat them by 46 while UCLA beat them by 25.  And given those results, the Buckeyes should have no problem covering this 6-point spread on a neutral against the Bruins today. 

Ohio State is 12-3 ATS vs. teams who average 6 or fewer steals per game over the last two seasons.  The Bruins are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Roll with Ohio State Saturday. 

15* Pelicans/Lakers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -5 

The Los Angeles Lakers return home tonight highly motivated for a victory.  They are coming off back-to-back upset road losses to the Wizards and Nets to close out a tough road trip.  But the Lakers have had two days off since last playing on Tuesday to rest and recover.  They are now primed for a big performance at home tonight. 

The Pelicans are a mash unit right now.  Starters Elfrid Payton and Nikola Mirotic are out, while fellow starters Anthony Davis and Julius Randle are listed as questionable.  Well, the Lakers are getting healthier tonight as starter Brandon Ingram is expected to return from his ankle injury.  Backup PG Rajon Rondo has been upgraded to questionable and could make his return to the lineup as well. 

The Pelicans have been brutal on the road this season, going 4-12 SU and giving up 116.1 PPG.  The Lakers are 11-4 at home and scoring 113.8 PPG and should be able to do whatever they want to offensively against a putrid Pelicans defense.  And with all of their injuries right now, this New Orleans offense just isn’t hitting on all cylinders. 

New Orleans is 3-12 ATS after playing a road game this season.  Los Angeles is 19-8 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games over the last two years.  The Pelicans are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following an ATS win.  New Orleans is 0-5 ATS in its last five Friday games.  Los Angeles is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS loss.  The favorite is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Lakers Friday. 

15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Portland Trail Blazers -2 

The Portland Trail Blazers are too good at home to only be laying two points to the Utah Jazz tonight.  They are 12-4 SU & 11-5 ATS at home this season and winning by 8.3 points per game on average.  The Blazers are 28-10 ATS in their last 38 home games overall. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series too as the home team is 9-2 SU & 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  And this is clearly a letdown spot for the Jazz, who are coming off a huge upset win over the defending champion Warriors on Wednesday and won’t be nearly as motivated to face the Blazers tonight.  Take the Blazers Friday. 

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -4 

The San Antonio Spurs are a lot better than they get credit for.  And they are certainly better at home than on the road.  They come in playing well going 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  And I still think they’re undervalued as only 4-point home favorites over the Timberwolves tonight. 

One of my favorite trends with this Spurs team is that they are 13-1 ATS when revenging a loss this season, including a perfect 11-0 ATS when revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 points or more this season.  They are also 10-0 ATS when revenging a road loss this season.  They are winning by an average of 16.2 PPG in this 10-0 situation. 

Well, the Spurs just suffered one of their worst losses of the season 89-128 at Minnesota on November 28th.  So they’ll be highly motivated to avenge that defeat.  And they should be able to against a Timberwolves team that has been atrocious on the road, going 2-12 SU & 5-9 ATS while losing by 7.6 PPG.   

The Timberwolves will also be without starting PG Jeff Teague tonight.  Meanwhile, the Spurs are as healthy as they’ve been at any point this season, which is a big reason why they are playing so well coming into this game.  Their strong play continues tonight in this revenge spot.  Bet the Spurs Friday. 

20* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Marquette -2.5 

Buffalo’s 11-0 start to the season and winning streak comes to an end tonight.  It’s been a good run for the Bulls, but this is by far their stiffest test of the season here against a Top 25 team in Marquette.  And the Golden Eagles are only laying 2.5 points at home tonight, which is an absolute gift. 

Buffalo is coming off a huge 71-59 upset win as 3.5-point dogs at Syracuse just a few days ago on Tuesday.  I don’t think they’ll be able to follow up that win with the kind of effort it’s going to take to beat Marquette tonight.  Syracuse is way down this season and was upset at home in its previous game while barely beating Georgetown by one point in its home game prior to that.  The fact of the matter is that win over Syracuse just wan’t that impressive. 

Marquette is 9-2 this season with its only losses coming in a true road game at Indiana and on a neutral to top-ranked Kansas.  But the Golden Eagles have one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  They are 8-0 at home this season and winning by 18.5 points per game.  They have beaten Kansas State (by 12) and Wisconsin (by 5) at home this season already, two quality Power 5 conference teams.  So they are battle-tested as they also have a neutral court win over Louisville. 

Buffalo is 0-8 ATS in its last eight road games vs. Big East opponents, losing by 23.0 PPG on average.  Marquette is 6-0 ATS after playing three consecutive home games over the past two seasons.  Take Marquette Friday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on New York Knicks -2.5 

The New York Knicks will be highly motivated for a victory at home tonight.  They have lost eight of their last nine coming in and have played a brutal road schedule with five of their last eight on the road.  Their last two home games were both on the second of a back-to-back, too, so their home schedule has been rough. 

But now the Knicks are undervalued and it’s time to ‘buy low’ on them here.  They are back home and had yesterday off to rest and regroup, and they should be able to handle a bad Atlanta Hawks team that is just 7-23 overall this season, including 2-14 on the road and losing by 12.4 PPG on average away from home. 

The Knicks have already beaten the Hawks twice this season.  They won 126-107 as 4-point home favorites in their first meeting, and 112-107 as 1.5-point road favorites in their second meeting.  So when you compare this 2.5-point spread to that -4 number they were laying against the Hawks in their first home meeting, there’s some clear value here with the Knicks. 

Atlanta is 0-7 ATS against Atlantic division opponents this season and losing by 16.7 PPG on average.  The Hawks are 2-15 ATS in their last 17 Friday games.  Atlanta is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  New York is 35-16-1 ATS in its last 52 Friday games.  Roll with the Knicks Friday. 

15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on UC-Irvine +8.5 

UC-Irvine has been a Big West powerhouse, finishing no worse than second in the conference over the last five years.  And now the Anteaters returned all five starters this season and are one of the better non-Power 5 teams in the country. 

The Anteaters are off to an 11-2 start this season with their only losses coming to two other non-Power 5 powerhouses in Utah State and Toledo.  They have outright upsets in true road games at Texas A&M as 4.5-point dogs and at St. Mary’s as 6.5-point dogs.  And now they are catching too many points tonight at Butler as 8.5-point dogs, which is their largest underdog role this season. 

Butler just hasn’t been that impressive at 8-3 SU & 4-7 ATS this season.  It’s a Butler team that lost two starters from last season, including their best player in Kelan Martin (21.2 PPG, 6.3 RPG).  They have already been upset by Dayton, Saint Louis and Indiana.  Heck, they are coming off a 76-67 home win of Presbyterian on Tuesday as 21-point favorites.  If Presbyterian can stay within 9 of them, I think UC-Irvine will have a chance to pull the upset, let alone stay within 8.5 points. 

Butler is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games vs. a team that wins more than 80% of their games.  Plays on road teams (UC-Irvine) - after allowing 55 points or less in three straight games, with two-plus more starters returning from last year than their opponent are 52-20 (72.2%) ATS since 1997.  The Anteaters are an impressive 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games.  Roll with UC-Irvine Friday. 

20* Rockets/Heat TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Miami +3.5 

The spot couldn’t be better for the Miami Heat tonight.  They’ve had three days off to rest and recover from a tough six-game road trip. Impressively, the Heat went 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS on that road trip, pulling off outright upsets over the Clippers, Grizzlies and Pelicans, while also playing the Lakers right down to the wire and covering.  Now they’ll be motivated to beat another Western Conference team at home tonight. 

The spot couldn’t be much worse for the Houston Rockets.  The Rockets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  They beat the Wizards at home last night in an absolute shootout, setting the NBA record for made 3’s (26) in a game.  Off that record-setting performance, it’s only human nature for them to have a letdown here. 

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Miami) - a well-rested team playing four or less games in 10 days, in December games are 43-17 (71.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.   

The Rockets are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.  Miami is 6-0 ATS in its last six vs. NBA Southwest Division opponents.  The Heat are 7-1 ATS in their last eight vs. Western Conference foes.  Miami is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games when playing on three or more days’ rest.  Take the Heat Thursday. 

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Houston -4 

The Houston Cougars are 10-0 and the No. 21 ranked team in the country.  They have a 23-game home winning streak in tact.  So laying only 4 points at home with them here against Utah State tonight is certainly a discount as I expect them to extend that home winning streak to 24 while covering this short number. 

The Cougars have beaten all comers by at least 4 points this season.  They have beaten the likes of Oregon, LSU and Saint Louis at home, as well as both BYU and Oklahoma State on the road.  And that BYU game is significant because it gives these teams a common opponent.   

Houston won 76-62 at BYU, while Utah State lost 80-95 at BYU.  The Aggies also lost to Arizona State on a neutral.  No question the Aggies are a quality team in the Mountain West, but this is a big step up in class for them, and when they’ve stepped up they’ve lost.  Their best win this season came against a down St. Mary’s team on a neutral. 

Utah State is 0-8 ATS in road games after scoring 85 points or more over the last three seasons.  Houston is 7-0 ATS off two straight games as a home favorite over the last three years.  The Cougars are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss.  These three trends combine for a perfect 21-0 system backing the Cougars.  Roll with Houston Thursday. 

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers -6 

I love the spot for the Portland Trail Blazers tonight.  They want revenge from an 83-92 loss at Memphis on December 12th exactly one week ago today.  And they’re home here tonight where they have been playing great basketball up against a short-handed Grizzlies team. 

The Blazers are 11-4 SU & 10-5 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 8.4 points per game.  They are fully healthy right now and really playing well at home of late, going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three home games with a 22-point win over Phoenix, and 8-point win over Minnesota and a 6-point win over Toronto.  Dating back further, Portland is 27-10 ATS in its last 37 home gams. 

The Grizzlies are stuck on the struggle bus right now.  They are 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. And they are coming off a 17-point loss to the defending champion Warriors, and I always like fading teams after facing the Warriors.  PG Mike Conley hasn’t been healthy for weeks as he continues to battle a hamstring injury and is questionable tonight.  He means everything to this team.  And this is a tired Grizzlies team playing their 8th game in 13 days. 

Memphis is 6-18 ATS when playing 8 or more games in 14 days over the past two seasons.  Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Portland) - after a game where they covered the spread, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 72-23 (75.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Blazers Wednesday. 

15* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Chicago Bulls +2 

It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Brooklyn Nets and ‘buy low’ on the Chicago Bulls tonight.  The Nets have won six straight coming into this game and are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall.  And now they are rare road favorites tonight when they have only been favored on the road once this season, and that was at Phoenix. 

It’s an awful spot for the Nets.  They are coming off a huge upset home win over the Lakers last night, so they are clearly in line for a letdown.  Plus, they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days here.  They won’t have much left in the tank for the Bulls tonight. 

We’ll ‘buy low’ on a Bulls team that is just 3-15 SU in its last 18 games overall.  They are also coming off a 25-point loss at Oklahoma City.  That followed up an upset win at San Antonio as 9-point dogs to show what they were capable of.  And the Bulls are as healthy as they’ve been all season with Markkanen, Portis and Dunn all recently returning to the lineup.  They should be a money-maker in the short-term moving forward. 

Brooklyn is 12-27 ATS in its last 39 road games off three or more consecutive ATS wins.  The Nets are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games playing on zero rest.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take the Bulls Wednesday. 

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Rockets OVER 223.5

The Wizards have been one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA this season.  They are giving up 117.0 points per game and 47.2% shooting overall, including 119.9 points and 48.3% shooting on the road.  They have been good offensively, though, scoring 112.7 points per game on the season.  The Rockets are still an offensive juggernaut, and they play little defense as well, giving up 108.7 points and 47.5% shooting on the season.   

I think the Rockets can hang a big number on the Wizards, who have allowed 109 or more points in eight consecutive games.  But the Wizards will get their points, too, as they’ve scored 110 or more in four straight and six of their last eight.  They’ve only been held below 100 points twice in 31 games this season.  They have held their opponents to less than 100 only three times.  This is a Wizards team that has to play small ball, which favors high-scoring affairs. 

The Wizards and Rockets have already squared off once this season.  The Wizards won 135-131 (OT) at home on November 26th for 266 combined points.  Granted, it went to OT, but it was still 250 combined points at the end of regulation as only 16 points were scored in the extra session.  And the Wizards and Rockets have combined for at least 224 points in three straight meetings now. 

Washington is 37-17-1 OVER in its last 55 games when playing on zero rest.  Houston is 12-2 OVER in home games off three or more consecutive ATS wins over the last three years.  The OVER is 34-16-1 in Wizards last 51 games following an ATS loss.  The OVER is 5-1 in Wizards last six vs. Western Conference opponents.  The OVER is 6-0 in Rockets last six vs. Eastern Conference foes.  The OVER is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings. Roll with the OVER in this game Wednesday. 

20* Auburn/NC State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on NC State +2 

NC State is loaded this season.  The Wolfpack brought back three starters from last year, and then added in some tremendous college-ready transfers in Devon Daniels, C.J. Bryce, Blake Harris, Wyatt Walker and Eric Lockett.  They brought back senior Torin Dorn, sharp-shooter Braxton Beverly and junior Markell Johnson, who led the ACC with 7.3 assists per game last year. 

The Wolfpack are off to a 9-1 start this season with their only loss coming 75-79 at Wisconsin as 6-point dogs.  They have been undervalued all season as they are 8-2 ATS.  They are outscoring opponents by a whopping 25.3 points per game on the year with an offense that puts up 88.9 points per game on 51.5% shooting, and a defense that allows just 63.6 points per game on 40.9% shooting. 

Dorn (16.0 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 45.8% 3-pointers this season) and Johnson (12.3 PPG, 4.3 APG, 47.5% 3-pointers) are doing their thing, while Bryce (12.4 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 42.9% 3-pointers) and Daniels (9.1 PPG, 4.3 RPG) are contributing right away as transfers.  As you can see, all of their top scorers shoot the lights out from 3-point range, and that’s a big reason why their offense is so efficient. 

It will be a packed house tonight for the Wolfpack in anticipation of the No. 7 Auburn Tigers coming to town.  That Top 10 ranking has had the Tigers grossly overvalued here of late as they are 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall, failing to cover the spread by a combined 35 points in those three games.  That includes their narrow 75-71 win over UAB as 20.5-point favorites last time out. 

Auburn lost its toughest game to Duke, and it doesn’t have many impressive wins this season.  Their best wins have come against Arizona, Xavier and Washington.  Well, Arizona and Xavier are way down this year, and Washington was a home game.  In fact, this will be the first true road game all season for Auburn.  I love fading teams in their first true road game of the season, especially when they haven’t had one this late in the season. 

Auburn is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games with a total of 155 to 159.5.  NC State is 9-1 ATS in home games with a total of 150 to 159.5 over the lats two seasons.  The Wolfpack are 10-1 ATS in home games after having won five or six of their last seven games over the past three seasons.  The Tigers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss.  These four trends combine for a 33-2 system backing the Wolfpack tonight.  Take NC State Wednesday. 

15* NBA Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Dallas Mavericks +5 

The Dallas Mavericks will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They are coming off back-to-back upset losses to the Suns and Kings, which followed up 12-3 run that has the Mavericks sitting in first place in their division right now.  They are rested and ready to go as they’ll be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days tonight. 

I think the Nuggets are in a big letdown spot tonight.  They have managed to win three straight at home over the Grizzlies, Thunder and Raptors despite playing without three starters in Gary Harris, Paul Millsap and Will Barton.  Teams can play well in the short-term with injuries, but it catches up to them over the long haul due to depth issues.  I think it starts catching up for the Nuggets tonight, especially off their big win over the Raptors last time out as they won’t be nearly as motivated to face the Mavs. 

Dallas had Denver’s number last season, going 2-2 SU & 4-0 ATS in their four meetings.  Their two losses came on the road by only 2 and 3 points, and they won their two home meetings with the Nuggets by 17 and 11 points.  And you have to consider that the Nuggets are in a lot worse shape right now than they were last year, while the Mavericks are one of the most improved teams in the NBA and almost 100% healthy. 

The Nuggets are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 vs. NBA Southwest Division opponents, while the Mavericks are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 vs. NBA Northwest Division foes.  Dallas is 29-11 ATS in its lsat 40 games following an ATS loss, and 5-1 ATS in its last six games following a SU loss.  Take the Mavericks Tuesday. 

15* CBB Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on Missouri +3 

Xavier is getting too much respect for what it has done in the past, including a 29-6 season last year.  But they lost nearly everyone in G Trevon Bluiett, G J.P. Macura, F Kerem Kanter, F Kaiser Gates and F Sean O’Mara from last year’s team.  They also lost head coach Chris Mack to Louisville.  Their leading returning scorer averaged just 8.7 PPG and they are clearly rebuilding. 

That has been evident in Xavier’s 7-4 SU & 4-6 ATS start tot he season.  And they’ve only played one true road game this season, which was a 15-point loss at Cincinnati as 6.5-point dogs.  They also lost to SDSU and Auburn on a neutral, as well as Wisconsin at home.  Their seven wins have come against IUPUI, Evansville, Illinois, Miami Ohio, Oakland, Ohio and Eastern Kentucky with six of those wins coming at home. 

Missouri is an improved team this season with three returning starters and some nice talent for Cuonzo Martin.  The Tigers are 6-3 with two of their losses coming on the road to very good Iowa State and Kansas State teams.  They did lose at home to Temple 77-79, but Temple is arguably the best team in the AAC.  They beat UCF, another AAC title contender outright as underdogs.  They also upset Oregon State on a neutral.  They should not be home dogs to Xavier tonight. 

The Tigers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five home games.  The Musketeers are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Xavier is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games following a win.  My final factor favoring Missouri is that they have had 10 days off to prepare for Xavier, while the Musketeers only have two days to get ready for the Tigers after playing on Saturday.  Roll with Missouri Tuesday. 

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs PK 

The San Antonio Spurs had their four-game winning streak come to an end with an ugly 93-98 home loss to the Bulls last time out.  Look for them to respond in a big way here against the Philadelphia 76ers and continue their success at home, where they are 11-5 SU & 10-6 ATS on the season. 

The Spurs catch the Philadelphia 76ers in a very tough spot here tonight.  The 76ers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after winning in Cleveland last night.  It's a long flight to San Antonio, and I don’t think the 76ers will have much left in the tank tonight. 

The Spurs are 12-2 SU in their last 14 meetings with the 76ers overall.  The Spurs are 19-2 SU in their last 21 home meetings with the 76ers.  The 76ers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of .600 or better.  The Spurs are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 home games. 

San Antonio is 16-4 ATS in December home games over the last three seasons. The Spurs are 14-4 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons.  The Spurs are 16-5 ATS in home games off an upset loss as a favorite over the last three seasons.  Take the Spurs Monday. 

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +13 

The Chicago Bulls have been more competitive since Jim Boylan took over as head coach.  They have gone 3-2-1 ATS in their last six games with an outright upset at San Antonio as 9-point dogs and an outright upset over Oklahoma City at home as 8-point dogs. 

Now, the Bulls are catching 13 points here on the road in the rematch with the Thunder, and it’s simply too much.  That’s especially the case when you consider the Bulls have gotten a lot healthier in recent weeks.  They’ve gotten Lauri Markkanen (15.1 PPG, 6.1 RPG), Kris Dunn (11.8 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 4.5 APG) and Bobby Portis (10.7 PPG, 8.4 RPG) back from injury.  This team now has more depth than they’ve had all season. 

The Thunder moved into first place in the Western Conference recently, and have been overvalued since.  They have gone just 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  And once again they are laying too many points here against the Bulls as massive 13-point favorites. 

The Bulls have had the Thunder’s number in recent meetings, going 4-3 SU & 4-3 ATS with three outright upsets.  Oklahoma City is just 9-26 ATS when revenging a straight up loss as a favorite over the last two seasons.  Worse yet, the Thunder are 3-13 ATS when revenging a loss as a road favorite over the last two years.  Roll with the Bulls Monday. 

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Knicks +12 

The love for the Indiana Pacers is starting to get out of hand here Sunday.  They are 12-point favorites over the New York Knicks.  Well, the Pacers have only been favored by more than 8 points once all season.  That was as 11.5-point home favorites over the Hawks, and the Pacers failed to cover in an 8-point win. 

The reason the Pacers are getting so much love right now is because they have won six in a row coming in while going 5-1 ATS in the process.  They are coming off back-to-back upset wins over the Bucks and 76ers as well.  If anything, that sets them up for a letdown spot here as they won’t be nearly as motivated to face the Knicks.  It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Pacers today. 

Conversely, it’s time to ‘buy low’ on the Knicks.  They have gone just 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  But they had a nice 126-124 (OT) road win over the Hornets last time out where they showed a ton of heart in coming back from a big deficit.  And the Knicks certainly want revenge from a 101-107 home loss to the Pacers in their first and only meeting this season.  I like them quite a bit here catching 12 points on the road in the rematch. 

Five of the last six meetings in this series have been decided by 8 points or less.  Plays on underdogs (New York) - revenging a same season loss, off a huge upset win as a road underdog of 10 points or more are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  New York will put up more of a fight than this line suggests tonight.  Bet the Knicks Sunday. 

15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on West Virginia -6.5 

The West Virginia Mountaineers should roll the Rhode Island Rams today at Mohegan Sun Arena in Connecticut.  They are the more talented, more experienced team and this is really a shorter number than it should be Sunday afternoon. 

The Mountaineers returned four players who averaged at least 8.7 points per game from last year’s team.  And I think they are being undervalued right now because they already have three losses on the season against a difficult schedule.  But they also have wins by 7 points or more against St. Joe’s, Valpo and Pitt, and they are playing a lot better since a slow start.  They’ve gone 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall with their only loss coming as dogs to Florida on a neutral. 

Rhode Island is clearly a rebuilding team.  Dan Hurley bolted for greener pastures in the offseason, and it’s no surprise he left when he did because the Rams lost a ton of talent.  They only have one returning starter, and lose five players who combined to average 53.6 points per game last year.  That’s a lot of production gone.  They don’t return a single double-digit scorer from last year’s team that went 26-8. 

The early struggles during a 4-3 start for the Rams are not surprising.  Their four wins have come against Bryant, Harvard (by 2), Brown and Holy Cross with three of those at home.  They lost by 11 at Charleston as 2.5-point dogs, were upset at home by Stony Brook by 10 despite being 10.5-point favorites, and lost by 9 at Providence as 7-point dogs.  So they’ve played an extremely weak schedule, and yet at just 4-3. 

West Virginia is 9-1 ATS vs. teams who average 40 or more rebounds per game over the past three seasons.  The Mountaineers are once again a tremendous rebounding team, which is the one thing the Rams do well.  Rhode Island has terrible guard play as they are shooting just 39.9% from the field and 20.3% from 3-point range on the season.  That’s not going to cut it in today’s college basketball.  The Rams are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following a win.  Roll with West Virginia Sunday. 

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Lakers -1.5 

The Los Angeles Lakers have really been playing some great basketball.  It was always going to take them some time to gel with Lebron James and all the new faces, but they’ve certainly gelled now.  The Lakers are 13-5 SU in their last 18 games overall coming in. 

And I like backing the Lakers off their tough loss to Houston on Thursday.  They have been really good following a loss, going 5-1 SU in their last six games off a loss.  And the Lakers are rested right now as this will be just their 2nd game in 5 days tonight.  They should be primed for a big effort here. 

Conversely, the Charlotte Hornets are in an awful spot.  They played an overtime game against the Knicks last night and lost 124-126.  That had to take a lot out of them.  They’ll now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  And all five starters played at least 36 minutes last night. 

Charlotte is 6-19 ATS in home games off two consecutive home games over the past three seasons.  Los Angeles is 18-8 ATS after failing to cove the spread in two or more consecutive games over the last two years.  The Lakers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS loss.  Los Angeles is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a loss by more than 10 points.  The Hornets are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.  The road team is 16-5-1 ATS in the lsat 22 meetings.  The Lakers are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings in Charlotte.  Bet the Lakers Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Southern Miss +9 

Wichita State is clearly in rebuilding mode.  The Shockers only returned one starter this season and lost almost every key player from last year’s team that went 25-8.  The only key returnee is SF Markis McDuffie, who is the top returning scorer at only 8.3 PPG. 

It’s no wonder the Shockers are off to a shaky 5-4 start this season.  They lost by 13 at home to LA Tech as 9-point favorites, and they only beat Jacksonville State by 4 last time out at home as 7.5-point favorites.  They have only had two days to get ready for Southern Miss. 

This is a Southern Miss team on the rise.  The Golden Eagles are in their best shape since being hit with a three-year probation from former coach Donnie Tyndall’s tenure.  Fifth-year coach Doc Sadler returns a very experienced team, including four senior starting guards from last year.  Tyree Griffin (15.0 PPG, 5.9 APG last year), Cortez Edwards (16.6 PPG, 6.4 RPG), Dominic Magee (11.7 PPG, 6.6 RPG) and Kevin Holland (6.8 PPG) all returned.  That’s a lot of production. 

The Golden Eagles are off to a 7-2 start this season.  And their two most impressive performances came in their only two true road games.  They won outright 74-64 at SMU as 9.5-point underdogs, and 81-66 at Troy as 1.5-point dogs.  They certainly won’t be losing by double-digits on the road to this rebuilding Wichita State team tonight. 

Wichita State is 5-15 ATS vs. teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game over the last two seasons.  Plays on road dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Southern Miss) - in a game involving two up-tempo teams who average 60 or more shots per game, after two straight games where they allowed their opponents to shoot 37% or less are 30-6 (83.3%) ATS since 1983.  Roll with Southern Miss Saturday. 

15* Penn State/NC State ESPNU No-Brainer on NC State -4 

NC State is loaded this season.  The Wolfpack brought back three starters from last year, and then added in some tremendous college-ready transfers in Devon Daniels, C.J. Bryce, Blake Harris, Wyatt Walker and Eric Lockett.  They brought back senior Torin Dorn, sharp-shooter Braxton Beverly and junior Markell Johnson, who led the ACC with 7.3 assists per game last year. 

The Wolfpack are off to an 8-1 start this season with heir only loss coming 75-79 at Wisconsin as 6-point dogs.  They have been undervalued all season as they are 7-2 ATS.  Dorn (16.1 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 47.8% 3-pointers this season) and Johnson (12.2 PPG, 4.2 APG, 48.6% 3-pointers) are doing their thing, while Bryce (12.3 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 40% 3-pointers) and Daniels (9.6 PPG, 4.3 RPG) are contributing right away as transfers. 

Penn State clearly came into the season overvalued.  The Nittany Lions are just 5-4 SU & 3-6 ATS in their nine games this season.  Their five wins have come against North Florida, Jacksonville State, Wright State, VA Tech (at home by 1) and Colgate.  They already have upset losses to DePaul, Bradley and Indiana, and they failed to cover in a loss at Maryland.  This team just isn’t very good. 

Penn State is 2-10 ATS in road games vs. up-tempo teams who average 62 or more shots per game.  The Wolfpack are scoring 88.9 PPG this season, which is 15.9 per game more than their opponents give up on average.  They are also holding teams to 62 PPG, which is 6 points less than their opponents average.  This team is a lot better than they’re getting credit for as only 4-point favorites here, and that will show on the court this afternoon.  Take NC State Saturday. 

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Rutgers +7 

I love the spot for Rutgers today.  They are coming off three consecutive losses and will be highly motivated for a victory.  Well, an 11-point loss to Michigan State and a 5-point road loss to Wisconsin as 11.5-point dogs aren’t bad losses.  The upset loss at Fordham was, but it was understandable given they stepped out of conference following those losses to MSU and Wisconsin. 

Look for the Scarlet Knights to be refocused and ready to go tonight.  This is a team that got off to a 5-1 start, which includes a 57-54 win at Miami as 11-point dogs.  And their only loss was as dogs to St. John’s up to that point.  So they have been through the gauntlet, playing one of the most difficult schedules in the country to this point.  They won’t be phased at all by this road game at Seton Hall as it will already be their fourth true road game of the season. 

I also love the spot fading Seton Hall.  They are coming off one of their biggest wins in program history, an 84-83 win over Kentucky on a neutral last time out.  After beating the Wildcats, who are down this season, they certainly won’t be nearly as motivated to face Rutgers tonight.  This is a Seton Hall team that lost by 23 to Nebraska, was upset by St. Louis at home, and upset by Louisville at home.  Rutgers will have a chance to pull the upset today, too. 

Seton Hall is 1-9 ATS after playing a game where both teams scored 80 points or more over the last three seasons.  It’s a Pirates team that lost their four best players from last year, and one that is being overvalued now off that win over Kentucky.  The Scarlet Knights are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 non-conference games, and 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.  The road team is 20-6 ATSi n the last 26 meetings.  The Scarlet Knights are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 trips to Seton Hall.  Bet Rutgers Saturday. 

15* Raptors/Blazers NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Portland +4 

The Toronto Raptors are getting too much respect from oddsmakers tonight.  They are coming off back-to-back road wins over the Clippers and Warriors.  They were 8-point dogs to the Warriors, and now they are 4-point favorites at the Blazers.  And they’re certainly in a huge letdown spot off that big win over the Warriors. 

Toronto has some serious injury concerns moving forward.  Kawhi Leonard has been sitting out with a hip injury and is questionable to return tonight.  They haven’t needed him, so I’m not concerned whether he plays or not.  But they just lost Jonas Valanciunas for the next four-to-six weeks with a thumb injury in that win over the Warriors.  He provides much-needed toughness inside, and they’re going to miss him more than what will get factored into the point spread moving forward. 

Portland comes in highly motivated for a victory off back-to-back road losses to Houston and Memphis.  The Blazers had their chances late in both of those games, but finished poorly.  Now they return home, and this team has one of the biggest home/road splits in the NBA.  They have a tremendous home-court advantage, going 10-4 SU & 9-5 ATS while outscoring their opponents by 8.6 points per game in Portland. 

Plays on underdogs (Portland) - off two or more consecutive road losses, in December games are 70-33 (68%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Blazers are 26-10 ATS in their last 36 home games.  The Raptors are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 vs. NBA Northwest Division opponents.  Portland is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 home meetings with Toronto.  Roll with the Blazers Friday. 

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Cavaliers +10.5 

This is one of my favorite situations in the NBA.  I like backing teams who are playing with quick revenge after a recent loss to their opponent.  The Cavs lost 92-108 at Milwaukee as 10-point dogs on Monday, December 10th, and now they are 10.5-point dogs at home in the rematch.  There’s clearly some value here. 

The Cavs are playing very well at home of late.  They beat the Wizards 116-101 outright as 7.5-point dogs, and then the Knicks 113-106 outright as 1.5-point dogs in their last two home games.  And this is a team that is getting healthier with several guys recently returning from injury.  The addition of Matthew Dellavedova from the Bucks is also paying dividends as he’s playing big, important minutes and has been a nice role model for rookie sensation Collin Sexton. 

While the Cavs will be highly motivated for revenge on Milwaukee, the Bucks will have a hard time getting up for this game considering they just beat the Cavs by 16 four days ago.  And the Bucks have been a bad bet on the road this season, going 5-6 SU & 4-7 ATS while only outscoring their opponents by 2.2 points per game on average.  The Cavs are only getting beat by 4.4 points per game at home this year. 

Milwaukee is 20-48 ATS in its last 68 games as a favorite of 10 or more points.  The Bucks are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 road games dating back to last season.  The home team is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take the Cavaliers Friday. 

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets -1.5 

The Brooklyn Nets are having some fun right now.  I’ve watched this team a lot this season and have been impressed with what I’ve seen, especially of late.  They had lost eight straight games, including back-to-back heartbreaking 2-point losses to close out the streak.  But they didn’t give in. 

Since those two 2-point losses, the Nets have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They beat the Raptors 106-105 (OT) at home and celebrated like they won the NBA title.  It was fun to see, and this team has just kept on rolling since.  They went on the road and beat the Knicks 112-104 as 2-point dogs, and then upset the 76ers 127-124 as 6-point dogs.  And this is a fresh team right now as the Nets will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days. 

The Wizards just can’t be trusted.  They have been one of the most disappointing teams in the NBA this season at 11-17.  They have gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  They lost by 15 at Cleveland as 7.5-point favorites, by 8 at Indiana as 6-point dogs, and then in OT 125-130 to Boston at home as 3.5-point dogs.  And after playing the Celtics, they certainly won’t get up to face the Nets and this is a ‘hangover’ spot for them.  It’s also a sandwich spot with the Lakers on deck. 

The Nets have had the Wizards’ number in recent meetings, going 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  In their last two home meetings with the Wizards, the Nets won 119-84 and 103-98, both times winning outright as underdogs.  And they should have no problem covering this short 1.5-point spread at home here tonight.  John Wall is hobbled by an ankle injury and left last game, while Otto Porter Jr. is questionable with a knee injury after sitting out last game. 

Washington is 0-8 ATS in road games after allowing 105 points or more in three straight games this season.  It is losing by a whopping 17.7 points per game on average in this spot.  On the season, the Wizards are 4-11 SU & 4-11 ATS on the road, getting outscored by 10.8 points per game.  Dating back further, the Wizards are 5-21 ATS in their last 26 road games.  The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Brooklyn is 4-0 ATS in its last four home meetings with Washington.  Bet the Nets Friday. 

20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -2.5 

The San Antonio Spurs have been a great home team this season.  They are 10-4 SU & 9-5 ATS at home this year.  I like them here quite a bit laying this short number to the Los Angeles Clippers, who have finally come back down to reality here of late. 

The Clippers were the No. 1 team in the West just a short few weeks ago, but they’ve hit a wall.  They are just 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  Their only win came 123-119 (OT) against the Phoenix Suns, who are far and away the worst team in the West.  The three losses came by 10, 23 and 24 points. 

A big reason the Clippers are going to continue to struggle in the short-term is the loss of Lou Williams (17.2 PPG, 4.5 APG) to a hamstring injury.  He isn’t someone who affects the point spread, but he should.  He is the best 6th man in the league and provides a huge scoring punch for the Clippers’ bench.  Without Williams, the Clippers no longer have the bench advantage they’ve had all season. 

The Spurs are 36-10 SU in their last 46 home meetings with the Clippers.  The home team is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings with the Spurs winning by 18 and 13 points in their last two home meetings with the Clippers.  The Spurs are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 home games, including 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games vs. a team with a winning road record. 

San Antonio also wants revenge from a 111-116 road loss to the Clippers in their lone meeting this season on November 15th.  Well, the Spurs are 10-1 ATS when revenging a loss this season, including a perfect 9-0 ATS when revenging a road loss this season.  Take the Spurs Thursday. 

15* NBA Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento Kings +3.5 

The Sacramento Kings should not be home underdogs to the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight.  The Kings have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season, and they continue to be here.  They are 14-12 SU & 16-10 ATS in all games this season. 

The Kings have really turned it on of late, going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall, with three of those wins all coming by 17 points or more.  It’s even more impressive when you consider that four of those five games were on the road. 

The Timberwolves are in a tough spot here.  They are coming off two straight road games against the Blazers and Warriors.  And after losing to the Warriors on Monday, there’s no way they’ll be nearly as motivated to face the Kings tonight as they were the defending champs.  Minnesota is just 2-10 on the road this season, getting outscored by 7.2 points per game.  That’s why they can’t be favored here. 

Minnesota is 0-9 ATS in road games after scoring three of their last four against the spread over the past two seasons.  They are losing by 11.1 points per game on average in this spot.  Sacramento is 12-2 ATS when the total is 220 to 229.5 this season.  The Timberwolves ar e12-25 ATS in their last 37 road games.  The Kings are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games when playing on one days’ rest. 

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Sacramento) - after having won two of their last three games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 26-5 (83.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Kings Wednesday.

20* LSU/Houston ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Houston -3.5 

The Houston Cougars are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They have opened 8-0 SU & 5-2-1 ATS through their first eight games, outscoring the opposition by 17.7 points per game on average.  They play elite defense, giving up just 57.7 points and 37.8% shooting to their opponents. 

And it’s not like Houston is beating up on a bunch of cupcakes, either.  They won 76-62 at BYU as 2-point underdogs.  They beat Oregon 65-61 as 3.5-point home favorites.  And they won 63-53 at Oklahoma State as 2.5-point underdogs. 

That Oklahoma State result is important because it pertains to this game.  LSU is 7-2, but one of its losses came to Oklahoma State 77-90 on a neutral despite being 5.5-point favorites.  So that’s the common opponent between these teams, and Houston won by 10 on the road, while LSU lost by 13 on a neutral. 

And LSU has beaten up on a lot of cupcakes as they also lost to Florida State, while their seven wins all came against suspect competition as 8.5-point favorites or more.  In fact, this will be the first true road game of the season for the Tigers, which is always a precarious spot, especially up against a Top 25 team like Houston with a great home-court advantage. 

LSU is 3-12 ATS in road games vs. teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game over the last three seasons.  The Tigers are 1-7-3 ATS in their last 11 road games.  The Cougars are 10-4-2 ATS in their last 16 home games.  Houston is 15-5-2 ATS in its last 22 games overall.  The Cougars are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a win.  Bet Houston Wednesday. 

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -5.5 

The Charlotte Hornets are one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season.  They have handled their business at home, going 9-5 SU & 9-5 ATS while outscoring the opposition by 7.5 points per game.  And they’re fully healthy in this one while also coming in on two days’ rest, so they are fresh and ready to go.  It’s also just their 4th game in 10 days. 

Detroit is 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall.  All five losses have come by 6 points or more, and I think you can chalk up a 6th straight loss by at least 6 points for them here.  The Pistons will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days, and their 8th game in 13 days.  They are a tired team right now. 

That fatigue has led to some injuries lately that are really holding the Pistons back.  They are without Reggie Bullock (10.1 PPG) and Ish Smith (9.2 PPG), and Stanley Johnson (9.8 PPG) is banged up and questionable with a knee injury.  All three are among their top six scorers this season, so they are very short on depth right now. 

The Hornets are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with the Pistons, winning all three by 10 points or more and by an average of 12.3 points per game.  Charlotte is 10-2 ATS after allowing 105 or more points in three straight games this season.  The Pistons are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 vs. NBA Southeast Division foes.  Detroit is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Hornets are 5-1 ATS in their last six home meetings with the Pistons.  The favorite is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  Take the Hornets Wednesday. 

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Brooklyn Nets +7 

The Philadelphia 76ers will be without Jimmy Butler, who suffered a groin injury last time out and will miss this game.  After trading away Dario Saric and Robert Covington for Butler, and with Markelle Fultz out with a shoulder injury, the 76ers are really short on talent and depth right now. 

The Nets suffered two straight crushing losses to Cleveland (by 2) and Oklahoma City (by 2) to start the month of December.  But they have rallied since, upsetting the Raptors 106-105 as 8.5-point home underdogs.  Then they went on the road the next night and beat the Knicks 112-104.  Now, the Nets are working on three days’ rest having last played on Saturday, so they are primed for a big effort. 

The first two meetings this season show that the Nets have the 76ers’ number.  The Nets won 122-97 as 4-point home underdogs in their first meeting.  Then they let the 76ers off the hook in the 2nd meeting, blowing a 68-54 halftime lead and losing 125-127 as 4.5-point home dogs, so they covered.  And now they’re catching 7 points here in the 3rd meeting and out for revenge for that blown lead, plus they’re rested and up against a depleted 76ers squad. 

Brooklyn is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 road games when playing on three or more days’ rest.  The Nets are 17-6 ATS in road games when revenging a loss over the last two seasons.  The Nets are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall when playing on three days’ rest or more.  Brooklyn is 17-8 ATS in its last 25 road games.  Philadelphia is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Bet the Nets Wednesday. 

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -12.5 

The San Antonio Spurs are 9-4 SU & 8-5 ATS at home this season.  They are coming off back-to-back home wins over the Lakers (133-120) and Jazz (110-97) by 13 points apiece.  And they should have no problem winning by 13 points or more to cover this 12.5-point spread against the Phoenix Suns tonight. 

The Suns are in an awful spot.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 119-123 (OT) loss to the Clippers last night.  I always like looking to fade teams on a back-to-back, especially when they’re coming off an OT game.  This will also be the 9th game in 15 days for Phoenix.  The Spurs had yesterday off. 

The Suns are without Devin Booker right now, which is a big reason they are 0-9 SU & 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Seven of those nine losses have come by double-digits, so they’re used to losing by these margins.  They are 1-12 SU & 3-10 ATS on the road this season, losing by 15.2 points per game on average. 

The Spurs are 8-0 SU & 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight home meetings with the Suns.  Their last six home wins have all come by 14 points or more and by an average of 19.2 points per game.  San Antonio is a perfect 8-0 ATS when revenging a road loss this season.  After losing in Phoenix in their last meeting this season, the Spurs won’t be taking the Suns lightly tonight.  Bet the Spurs Tuesday. 

15* Heat/Lakers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Miami +7 

The Miami Heat are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They upset both the Pelicans and Jazz at home, and throttled the Suns by 17 and the Clippers by 23 on the road. 

The spot is a good one for the Heat tonight.  They didn’t have to travel as they played in Los Angeles on Saturday.  They probably went out Saturday night and had Sunday to recover.  And now they’ll be looking forward to the opportunity of trying to pull the Staples Center sweep tonight.  Plus, they get Goran Dragic back from injury, and they are getting healthy and becoming a very dangerous team because of it. 

The Lakers are getting a little too much respect from oddsmakers tonight.  They have won five of their last six while going 4-1-1 ATS in the process.  But it has mostly been against an easy schedule.  And while the Lakers will be playing their 4th game in 6 days here, the Heat will be playing just their 4th game in 7 days. 

Miami is 18-5 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last three seasons.  Los Angeles is 6-22 ATS in its last 28 home games after scoring 105 points or more in five straight games.  The Heat are 35-15-2 ATS in their last 52 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Lakers are 0-5 ATS in their last five Monday games. 

Plays against home favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA Lakers) - in non-conference games, off an upset win as a road underdog are 45-15 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Lakers will be without two key players in Brandon Ingram and Rajon Rondo tonight as well.  Roll with the Heat Monday.

15* NBA Monday UPSET SHOCKER on Memphis Grizzlies +2 

It’s no surprise that the Denver Nuggets have lost two straight games to the Hornets and Hawks coming into this game.  For starters, they just played five straight road games.  And now they’re in their first game back home after being on the road for 10 days.  I always like fading teams in this spot. 

The Nuggets will also be playing their 4th game in 6 days here.  And their injury situation is the biggest reason I’m fading them tonight.  They are without Gary Harris (16.6 PPG), Will Barton (16.5 PPG) and Paul Millsap (13.6 PPG), who are three of their top five scores.  And they may also be without leading scorer Jamal Murray (17.4 PPG), who suffered a shin injury in their loss to the Hawks on Saturday and is questionable tonight. 

Meanwhile, the Memphis Grizzlies are fully healthy right now with both Mike Conley and Garrett Temple expected to play.  And at full strength and up against a depleted Nuggets squad, the Grizzlies should be favored in this game even though it’s on the road. 

Memphis is 7-0 ATS in road games off a home game this season.  The Grizzlies are 34-19 ATS when playing their 3rd game in 4 days over the last three seasons, so they are in the same situation as the Nuggets, but it doesn’t seem to phase them.  Memphis is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 vs. NBA Northwest Division opponents.  Denver is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 vs. NBA Southwest Division foes.  Take the Grizzlies Monday. 

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -5 

I love the spot for the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight.  They come in on two days’ rest and off a bad upset loss at Chicago as 8.5-point favorites.  So they’ll be fresh and ready to go, plus they’ll be highly motivated for a win off that Chicago loss. 

Adding to Oklahoma City’s motivation tonight is the fact that Utah bounced them from the playoffs last year. Paul George had one of the worst games of his career in their 96-91 loss at Utah in Game 6.  He and Russell Westbrook will be looking to make amends.  In fact, I don’t think the Thunder will be more motivated for any other game in the regular season than this one. 

Meanwhile, the Utah Jazz will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back off their 97-110 loss in San Antonio last night.  So you have a team playing for a second consecutive day up against a team with two days’ rest.  The Thunder have a huge scheduling advantage in this one to say the least. 

The Thunder are 9-3 at home this season and winning by 8.7 points per game on average.  The Jazz are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games when playing on zero rest.  Oklahoma City is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games.  The home team is 22-10 ATS in the last 32 meetings.  The Thunder are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 home meetings with the Jazz.  Bet the Thunder Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Night Line Mistake on San Antonio Spurs +4 

The revenge tour of the San Antonio Spurs continues tonight.  They avenged a 113-121 road loss to the Lakers on Wednesday with a 133-120 home win over the Lakers on Friday.  And now they’ll be looking to avenge their 105-139 road loss to the Jazz on Tuesday when they get to host Utah this time around. 

San Antonio has gone 71-22 SU in its last 93 home meetings with Utah.  And home-court advantage has been huge in this series recently as the home team is 6-1 SU in the last seven meetings.  I don’t think the Spurs should be home dogs tonight, let alone 4-point home dogs. 

The Spurs are a perfect 7-0 ATS when revenging a road loss against an opponent this season.  San Antonio is also a perfect 7-0 ATS when revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 points or more this season.  The Spurs are 17-7 ATS in their last 24 home games, including 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Take the Spurs Sunday. 

15* Bucks/Raptors NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Toronto -5 

The Raptors are coming off a bad overtime loss to the Nets last time out.  That should have them refocused and ready to go at home tonight against the Milwaukee Bucks.  They’ll also want revenge from a 109-124 loss at Milwaukee in their first meeting this season. 

No team is as equipped to stop Giannis and the Bucks quite like Toronto.  Kawhi Leonard is arguably the best defender in the NBA, and he’ll relish the challenge to top Giannis tonight.  I expect a big effort from the Raptors here. 

The Bucks have done most of their damage at home thanks to a home-heavy schedule with 15 home games compared to just 9 road games.  And the Bucks are just 4-5 SU & 3-6 ATS on the road this season. 

Toronto is 14-3 ATS after failing to cover four of their last five against the spread over the last three seasons.  The Bucks are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Milwaukee is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 road games.  Roll with the Raptors Sunday.