15* Blazers/Nets Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Blazers/Nets OVER 220.5

The Brooklyn Nets are a dead nuts OVER team with Kyrie Irving in the lineup.  He's one of the best scorers in the NBA, but also one of the worst defenders as well.  This 220.5-point total is way low for a game involving the Nets with Irving in the lineup.  The OVER is 7-5 in the 12 games with Irving this season with combined scores of 221 or more points in eight of those 12 games.

This total has been set lower than it should be because the Blazers are without Damian Lillard.  But they have been just fine without him, going 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS because Anfernee Simons and Jerami Grant are stars.  They have scored at least 108 points in all six games without Lillard while averaging 118.2 points per game in those six games.  Grant and Simons just combined for 82 points in a win over the Knicks last time out.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Portland Trail Blazers +7

The Portland Trail Blazers have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season whether they have had Damian Lillard or not.  They are 11-8 SU & 13-6 ATS this season, including 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS without Lillard.

The Blazers have been able to be competitive without Lillard because Anfernee Simons and Jerami Grant are stars.  They have upset road wins over Phoenix as 12-point dogs, Memphis as 5-point dogs, Milwaukee as 9-point dogs and New York as 4-point dogs without Lillard.

Simons and Grant combined for 82 points in a 132-129 (OT) win at New York last time out.  Now they stay in New York and head to Brooklyn to face the Nets tonight.  The Nets have been one of the most overrated teams in the NBA this season, especially when Kyrie Irving has been healthy and in the lineup.  The Nets are 3-9 ATS with Irving in the lineup this season as he is a terrible defender and their chemistry has been awful with him.

Portland is 8-1 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  Brooklyn is 13-38-1 ATS in its last 52 home games.  The Nets are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games after playing a game where they were called for 10-plus more fouls than their opponent.  The Nets are 8-33 ATS in their last 41 games as home favorites.  Bet the Blazers Sunday.

15* Ole Miss/Oklahoma ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma -2

Oklahoma has been undervalued since a 51-52 upset home loss to Sam Houston State in the opener.  That loss doesn't look at bad now considering Sam Houston is 6-0 SU & 4-0 ATS this season with the other five wins all coming by double-digits since upsetting the Sooners.

Oklahoma has since gone 5-0 including covers in three of their last four games.  The last two have been very impressive with a 69-56 win over Nebraska as 6.5-point favorites and a 77-64 win over Seton Hall as 2-point dogs.  I think they hand Ole Miss its first loss of the season today.

Ole Miss is overvalued due to a 6-0 start against a very soft schedule.  They only won by 4 over Tennessee-Martin at home and none of their wins have come by more than 15 points despite the soft schedule of Tennessee-Martin, Alcorn State, FAU, Chattanooga, Siena and Stanford.  The Rebels will meet their match today as this is easily their toughest test yet.

The Rebels are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games.  The Sooners are 5-0 ATS in their last five neutral site games.  Bet Oklahoma Sunday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Thunder/Rockets OVER 232.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are a dead nuts OVER team right now.  They are 9-0 OVER in their last nine games overall while embracing the up-tempo style that is working for them.  The Thunder and their opponents have combined for at least 231 points in nine consecutive games and 241 or more in eight of those.

Oklahoma City ranks 4th in the NBA in pace this season.  Houston ranks 10th in pace and will enjoy getting up and down with the Thunder in this one.  The Rockets rank 28th in defensive efficiency while the Thunder rank 22nd, so this sets up for shootout with little defense being played.

We saw that last night for Houston when the Rockets won 128-122 over the Hawks.  That came after a 120-127 shootout loss to Golden State last time out.  The Thunder won 123-119 (OT) over the Bulls last night as well.  So both teams will be on tired legs, and that will affect their defense more than anything.

Oklahoma City is 10-1 OVER when the total is 230 or higher over the last two seasons.  The OVER is 13-2 in Thunder last 15 games overall.  The OVER is 6-0 in Rockets last six home games vs. a team with a losing record.  The OVER is 17-5 in Rockets last 22 games playing on zero rest.  The OVER is 4-1 in Thunder last five games playing on zero rest.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Tarleton State +7.5

Tarleton State made a great hire in Billy Gillispie who is a proven head coach at the D1 level.  He has gone 24-27 in his first two seasons at Tarleton, which have been rebuilding years for him with the Texans just moving to D1 two years ago and joining a loaded Western Athletic Conference.

Gillespie brought back three starters and two key reserves this season.  The Texans opened with a 59-62 loss at Arizona State as 14-point dogs before crushing Kansas Christian 95-49.  And boy does that 3-point loss to ASU look good now.  The Sun Devils upset VCU 63-59 as 3.5-point dogs on Wednesday and followed it up with a blowout upset win over Michigan 87-62 as 7.5-point dogs.

Tarleton followed it up with a 95-49 win over Kansas Christian, an 89-81 upset win over Belmont and a 70-54 upset win over Boston College.  The Texans then hung tough with Drake in a 7-point loss at 7-point dogs, and that's a Drake team that most expect to win the Missouri Valley.  Now the Texans are a 7-point dog to a Wichita State team that lost three double-digit scores and another who averaged 8.4 PPG and 5.0 RPG last season.  

The Shockers returned only one starter and are rebuilding under Isaac Brown, who is 31-19 in his first two seasons here.  Wichita State lost 57-66 as 16-point home favorites to Alcorn State earlier this season and is just 3-2 this year.  The Texans are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.  The Shockers are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  Take Tarleton State Saturday.

20* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Jazz/Warriors OVER 237.5

Both the Utah Jazz and Golden State Warriors are dead nuts OVER teams.  The Warriors rank 1st in pace this season while the Jazz rank 10th.  The Warriors rank 12th in offensive efficiency while the Jazz rank 6th.  The Warriors rank 25th in defensive efficiency while the Jazz rank 23rd.

The Jazz have scored at least 114 points in four consecutive games, while allowing at least 113 points in eight of their last nine games overall.  The Warriors have allowed 120 or more points in four of their last seven, while scoring at least 119 points in four of their last six.

The OVER is 4-0 in Jazz last four games overall.  The OVER is 5-0 in Jazz last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  The OVER is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings.  Roll with the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Nets/Pacers OVER 235.5

Kyrie Irving is back for the Nets and they are a dead nuts OVER team with him in the lineup.  He is one of the best scorers in the NBA and one of the worst defenders.  The Nets are about as healthy as they have been all season.

The Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team too and will control the tempo playing at home.  They like to get up and down ranking 4th in the NBA in pace this season.  Indiana is 10th in offensive efficiency and 24th in defensive efficiency as Rick Carlisle loves playing this style and coaching little defense.

The OVER is 22-9 in Pacers last 31 home games.  The OVER is 25-6-1 in the last 32 meetings in Indiana.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Sacramento Kings +8

The Sacramento Kings are grossly undervalued right now.  They are 10-3 SU & 10-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They will relish this opportunity to go into Boston and take on the defending Eastern Conference champs to try and pull off the upset.  They may not get it done, but getting 8 points with the Kings is too much given their current form.

Boston is also playing well having won 10 of their last 11 games overall.  Five of those wins were by single-digits plus an upset 14-point loss at Chicago two games back.  They have mostly feasted on a easy schedule during this stretch and are overvalued as a result.

Boston is 8-21 ATS in its last 29 home games following a win by 10 points or more.  Sacramento is 10-2 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 23 or more assists per game this season.  The Kings are 8-1 ATS vs. poor foul drawing teams that attempt 24 or fewer free throws per game this season.  Sacramento is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 road games.  The Kings are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games playing on one days' rest.  Take the Kings Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bulls/Thunder OVER 234.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are a dead nuts OVER team right now.  They are 8-0 OVER in their last eight games overall while embracing the up-tempo style that is working for them.  The Thunder and their opponents have combined for at least 231 points in eight consecutive games and 241 or more in seven of those.

The Chicago Bulls are rolling offensively right now beating Boston 121-107 two games back and Milwaukee 118-113 last game.  They will be more than willing to get in a shootout with the Thunder tonight, who will force their hand as they rank 4th in pace this season.

The OVER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings, including 4-0 in the last four meetings in Oklahoma City.  The OVER is 12-2 in Thunder last 14 games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Lakers/Spurs OVER 227.5

Both the Los Angeles Lakers and San Antonio Spurs are dead nuts OVER teams.  The Lakers rank 2nd in the NBA in pace this season while the Spurs rank 6th in pace.  The Spurs rank dead last (30th) in defensive efficiency this season as well.

The Lakers recently got Dennis Schroeder back to help them out offensively.  They are likely to get back LeBron tonight too, and their best defensive in Patrick Beverly has been suspended for three games.  All of those things will help us cash this OVER ticket.

Plays on the OVER on all teams where the total is 200 or higher (San Antonio) - after beating beaten by the spread by more than 6 points in four consecutive games in November games are 27-6 (81.8%) since 1996.  Take the OVER in this game Friday.

15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on San Jose State +9

Tim Miles quickly turned around Nebraska.  He's doing the same at San Jose State now, especially with so much veteran experience and his best player returning.  The Spartans are off to a 4-1 start this season with their lone loss to a good Hofstra team.

The Spartans should not be this big of underdogs to North Texas when you look at what the Mean Green have done so far.  They did beat Fresno by 9 and Paul Quinn, but they lost by 30 as 10.5-point dogs to St. Mary's and nearly lost outright to Southern Nazarene in a 53-47 home win.  Those two results are very concerning for this inexperienced team.

The Mean Green are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game.  North Texas is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following a win.  San Jose State is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games away from home after going over the total in its previous game.  These three trends combine for an 18-0 system backing the Spartans.  Roll with San Jose State Friday.

20* UNC/Iowa State ESPN No-Brainer on North Carolina -5

We are getting No. 1 ranked North Carolina at a discount today because they have opened 5-0 SU but only 1-4 ATS.  And they are coming off an 89-81 win over a pesky Portland team as 14.5-point favorites yesterday in what was basically a home game for them being played in Portland.  Now we get the Tar Heels as a single-digit favorite for the first time this season, and we'll take advantage.

Iowa State is overvalued off a 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS start this season.  They played three cupcakes in IUPUI, North Carolina A&T and Wisconsin-Milwaukee to open the season.  They did beat Villanova 81-79 (OT) yesterday, but that's a down Villanova team that already has three upset losses this season.

Now this is a tough spot for Iowa State after needing OT yesterday.  Four starters played more than 35 minutes for the Cyclones yesterday.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Tar Heels, who can run them out of the gym and take advantage of their tired legs.

The Tar Heels are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record.  UNC is 10-3-1 ATS in its last 14 games following an ATS loss.  Bet North Carolina Friday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Missouri State -5

Missouri State struck gold in the transfer portal under head coach Dana Ford to reload following a 23-11 season last year.  He brought in seven Division 1 transfers from places like Maryland, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Georgia, Akron and Colorado State.  This team is loaded again this season.

We saw that play out in their first two games with an 82-47 win over Missouri S&T followed by a very impressive 64-66 loss at BYU as 9.5-point dogs.  They followed that up with a 75-51 win over a very good Middle Tennessee team as 2-point favorites.  They should be more than 5-point favorites over UNC-Wilmington today.

UNC-Wilmington already has three blowout losses to UConn by 26, Oklahoma by 21 and UNC by 13.  Their two wins have come against Allen and Mount Olive.  Missouri State is 27-12 ATS in its last 39 games as a favorite.  The Bears are 37-18-1 ATS in their last 56 games following a win.  The Seahawks are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a win by more than 20 points.  Take Missouri State Friday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Xavier -1

Sean Miller is 425-157 as a head coach including 123-48 at Xavier.  He returned to Xavier this season and the cupboard was far from bare.  The Musketeers returned four starters including three double-digit scorers.  Miller is a master recruiter as well, so the Musketeers are loaded.

They are off to a 3-1 start this season with wins by 23 over Morgan State, by 22 over Montana and by 13 over Fairfield.  They also lost to Indiana by 2 as 2.5-point dogs.  That's an Indiana team that is also loaded this season and it's not a bad loss.  It will serve them well moving forward

Florida's 3-1 start is much more concerning.  They were double-digit favorites in three of the four games and only a 7-point favorite against a very bad Florida State team in which they won by 9.  But they lost outright at home to FAU as 12-point favorites and only beat lowly Kennesaw State by 10 as 20-point favorites.  It's a rebuilding year for first-year head coach Todd Golden and the Gators.

Golden is 9-24 ATS vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game as a head coach.  Miller is 59-35 ATS in road games when playing just his 2nd game in 8 days as a head coach.  Florida is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games following a win.  The Gators are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Xavier Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Iowa State/Villanova UNDER 131.5

Two teams that play at a snail's pace and play great defense square off today when Iowa State squares off against Villanova.  Iowa State lost their best player to Texas in the transfer portal in Tyrese Hunter, while Villanova is without its best player in Justin Moore until January.

The Cyclones road their defense to the Sweet 16 last year in a miraculous run.  They are defending at a high level again this season, holding their first three opponents to 45.0 points per game and 32.8% shooting.  They should be able to hold this Villanova team in check, too.

Villanova has played a tougher schedule with losses to Michigan State and Temple already.  But they aren't shooting it well at all with a 33.7% clip from 3-point range.  They are in about as poor a shape offensively as they have been in a long time, and a lot of that has to do with Jay Wright retiring.

Villanova is 11-3 UNDER in its last 14 games vs. teams that attempt 18 or fewer free throws per game.  Iowa State is 15-4 UNDER in its last 19 non-conference games.  The Wildcats are 8-1 UNDER in their last nine games as a neutral court favorite or PK.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Cyclones last seven games overall.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Wildcats last 10 neutral site games.  The UNDER is 9-1 in Wildcats last 10 games following an ATS win.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Clippers/Warriors ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 222.5

The Golden State Warriors are a dead nuts OVER team. They are playing no defense this season but their offense hasn't missed a beat.  They rank 1st in the NBA in pace at 105.2 possessions per game and 25th in defensive efficiency.  They are scoring 115.7 points per game and allowing 118.0 points per game this season.

This total has been adjusted too low because the Clippers will be without Kawhi Leonard and Paul George.  But those are also two of their best defenders and they tend to play slower with them in there.  This is a deep Clippers team so they will still get their points, and I am certain they are a worse defensive team without those two.

That just means more minutes for poor defenders in John Wall, Reggie Jackson and Norman Powell who can all score the ball but play little defense.  They will have to go to more of a small ball lineup tonight to match the Warriors anyway, which also favors the OVER.

Plays on the OVER on all teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (LA Clippers) - after going OVER the total in their previous game, a good defensive team (104-108 PPG) against a poor defensive team (114-118 PPG) are 69-32 (68.3%) since 1996.  Take the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Pelicans/Spurs OVER 229.5

Both the New Orleans Pelicans and San Antonio Spurs are great OVER teams.  The Spurs rank 8th in the league in pace while the Pelicans rank 18th.  The Pelicans rank 3rd in the NBA in offensive efficiency.  The Spurs rank 29th in the NBA in defensive efficiency.

I think the fact that both teams have gone under the total in consecutive games coming in has this total set lower than it should be.  The Pelicans just played the Warriors without all of their best players in a 128-83 victory.  The Spurs continued their terrible defense allowing 119 to the Clippers and 123 to the Lakers, but they only managed 97 and 92 points in those two games, respectively.  They won't get held down again tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Nuggets/Thunder OVER 229.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are a dead nuts OVER team right now.  They are 7-0 OVER in their last seven games overall while embracing the up-tempo style that is working for them.  The Thunder and their opponents have combined for at least 231 points in seven consecutive games, and if they get there again we'll cash this OVER 229.5.

Denver has been a dead nuts OVER team when they have had Jokic and Murray on the floor at the same time.  Well, they're back now after having to sit out due to health protocols.  The Nuggets rank 7th in the NBA in offensive efficiency and would be even better if they were healthy all season.

Denver and Oklahoma City have already played in two shootouts this season.  Denver won 122-117 for 239 combined points at home and 122-110 for 232 combined points on the road.  

The OVER is 11-1 in Thunder last 12 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  The OVER is 7-3 in Nuggets last 10 road games.  The OVER is 25-7 in Thunder last 32 games following a home loss.  The OVER is 8-0 in Thunder's last eight games vs. teams that shoot 24 or fewer free throws per game.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Sacramento Kings +5.5

The Sacramento Kings are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA.  I've been riding them a lot during their 10-2 SU & 10-2 ATS run over their last 12 games and I'm going to continue to ride them tonight.  They will be highly motivated to extend their winning streak to eight games.

This is a young, deep Kings team so I'm not concerned with them playing the 2nd of a back-to-back here.  They should still be pretty fresh considering this will be just their 3rd game in 6 days.  They are expected to have all hands on deck tonight and are fully healthy.  I just think they're a better team than the Atlanta Hawks right now.

The Hawks are just 3-4 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They lost at Cleveland by 12 last time out, barely beat a short-handed Toronto team playing the 2nd of a back-to-back by 2 in OT, and lost by 25 to Boston at home in their last three games coming in.

The Kings are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 road games.  Sacramento is a perfect 5-0 ATS in its last five games playing on zero rest.  Atlanta is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 games following a loss by more than 10 points.  Sacramento is 8-0 ATS vs. teams that attempt 24 or fewer free throws per game this season.  The Kings are 10-1 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 23 or more assists per game this season.  Roll with the Kings Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Coastal Carolina +14

Missouri is a rebuilding team under first-year head coach Dennis Gates, who brought back just one starter this season.  You wouldn't be able to tell that with their perfect 5-0 record, but that record has them overvalued tonight.

The five wins have come against one of the easiest schedules in the country, and they were nearly upset a couple times.  All five wins came at home over South Indiana (by 6), Penn (by 7), Lindenwood, SIU Edwardsville and Mississippi Valley State.  They were favored by at least 12 points in all five games and only covered two of them.

Coastal Carolina went 19-14 last season under Cliff Ellis, who has spent the past 15 seasons here and has 44 years of experience as a head coach overall.  Ellis welcomes back his best player in Essam Mostafa (13.0 PPG, 9.4 RPG last year) plus two starters.  Mostafa is averaging 16.3 PPG, 13.3 RPG and 2.0 BPG through three games and is a force inside.

The Chanticleers won their first two games by 44 and 63 points against overmatched competition before a 1-point road loss at USC Upstate as 4-point favorites.  They will be refocused and fresh after that narrow defeat playing just their 2nd game in 12 days, getting plenty of practice time to grow together as a team.

I love Eastern Kentucky transfer Jomaru Brown (21.7 PPG, 61.5% 3-pointers) who was a great find in the transfer portal for Ellis.  Linton Brown (16.3 PPG, 42.9% 3-pointers) is also proving to be a good find.  Holdovers Josh Uduje (12.7 PPG, 40% 3-pointers) and Wilfred Likayi (5.7 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 50% 3-pointers) are also fitting in well with the newcomers.  The Chanticleers are shooting 42% from 3 as a team.

Coastal Carolina is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games following a SU loss.  The Chanticleers are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following an ATS loss.  The Tigers are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games following a win.  Missouri is 7-15-1 ATS in its last 23 games following a win by more than 20 points.  Take Coastal Carolina Wednesday.

15* Lakers/Suns TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +7.5

The Los Angeles Lakers have quietly gone 3-0 SU & 2-0-1 ATS in their last three games overall to start playing up to their potential.  That includes blowout wins over the Nets by 13 and the Spurs by 31.  Now the Lakers are rested and ready to go playing just their 3rd game in 9 days and will give the Suns a run for their money tonight.

The Suns are struggling of late due to injuries as they are just 4-5 SU in their last nine games overall.  They are without both Chris Paul (9.5 PPG, 9.4 APG) and Cameron Johnson (13.0 PPG).  That's why I'm not concerned the Lakers will be without LeBron because it has been factored into the line too much, especially with this move to 10 since I released this play.

LeBron has been out the past four games and the Lakers played well in all four.  They are forming some chemistry without him, and it will pay dividends down the road.  I would make the Lakers a 20* play at +10, so adjust your bet size accordingly.

Phoenix is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games when playing against a team that wins between 25% to 40% of their games.  Monte Williams is 6-22 ATS in home games off a blowout win by 20 points or more as a head coach.  The Suns won't be fully focused playing the Lakers without LeBron, either.  Take the Lakers Tuesday.

15* Syracuse/St. John's ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on St. John's -3

Mike Anderson is in Year 4 at St. John's and should have his best team yet.  The Red Storm returned three starters this season and added DePaul transfer David Jones.  The Johnnies are off to a 5-0 start this season with four wins by 15 points or more plus a victory over a solid Temple team by 6.  That's a Temple team that has upset wins over Villanova and Rutgers already this season.

Jones (17.0 PPG, 7.8 RPG) is off to a fantastic start in his first season with St. John's.  The three returning starters in Soriano (13.2 PPG, 11.2 RPG), Mathis (11.6 PPG, 55.6% 3-pointers) and Alexander (10.2 PPG, 5.0 APG) are gelling well with Jones, plus Illinois transfer Andre Curbelo (9.8 PPG, 5.8 APG).

Syracuse lost arguably its three best players from a year ago in Buddy Boeheim (19.2 PPG), Cole Swider (13.9 PPG, 6.8 RPG) and Jimmy Boeheim (13.7 PPG, 6.2 RPG).  I question head coach Jim Boeheim's motivation at this point after losing both his kids as he enters his 48th season.

Syracuse lost 80-68 to Colgate as a 7.5-point home favorite already this season for its lone loss, while beating two very bad teams in Lehigh and Northeastern.  The Orange did beat Richmond 74-71 (OT) last night, but that's a rebuilding Spiders team.

After playing an overtime game last night, this is now a brutal spot for the Orange.  They will now be playing their 3rd game in 4 days, while St. John's will only be playing its 2nd game in 5 days.  The Johnnies like to push the tempo and play relentless defensive, which will test the Orange's tired legs.  All five starters played at least 31 minutes for Syracuse last night, including 42 from Girard III and 40 from Williams.  The Red Storm are 7-2 ATS in their last nine neutral site games.  Take St. John's Tuesday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Sacramento Kings -2

The Sacramento Kings are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA.  I've been riding them a lot during their 9-2 SU & 9-2 ATS run over their last 11 games and I'm going to continue to ride them tonight.  They want to extend their winning streak to seven games, and they are rested and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.

The Memphis Grizzlies have injury problems right now that have them just 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games with their lone win coming against the Oklahoma City Thunder at home.  They lost by 10 at Washington, by 11 at New Orleans and by 12 at Brooklyn.

While the Kings are fully healthy right now, which is a big reason they are playing so well, the Grizzlies are far from it.  They're without the most underrated player in the NBA in Desmond Bane (24.7 PPG).  JA Morant (28.6 PPG) is questionable tonight, and Jaren Jackson Jr. (16.0 PPG) is making his way back from injury and on a minutes restriction.

The Kings are a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last nine games when playing on one days' rest.  Sacramento is 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 road games.  Bet the Kings Tuesday.

20* Creighton/Arkansas ESPN No-Brainer on Creighton -1

The Creighton Bluejays are ranked in the Top 10 for good reason.  This team is loaded under head coach Greg McDermott.  The Bluejays are 5-0 SU & 3-2 ATS this season with one of their non-covers coming by half a point.  They just blasted a very good Texas Tech team 76-65 last night.

The Bluejays have four players averaging double figures scoring and three of them shoot 42% or better from 3-point range.  They are tough to defend.  They'll take on a reloading Arkansas team that lost all five starters from a year ago.  The chemistry for the Bluejays can be trusted much more than that of the Razorbacks early in the season.

Arkansas is 4-0 as well but against an extremely soft schedule of North Dakota State, Fordham, South Dakota State and Louisville.  That's the worst Louisville team we've seen in decades as the Cardinals are now 0-4 this season with losses to Appalachian State, Wright State and Belmont.

The Bluejays are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % of .600 or better.  Creighton is 7-0 ATS in its last seven neutral site games.  Roll with Creighton Tuesday.

15* CBB Monday Night Line Mistake on Northern Arizona +27

I cashed in Texas +1 in a 93-74 victory over Gonzaga in their last game.  But I know a letdown spot when I see one, and this is  the definition of one.  The Longhorns won't be nearly as motivated to beat Northern Arizona as they were to beat Gonzaga.  And that's going to make it difficult for them to cover this massive 27-point spread.

Northern Arizona is no pushover, either.  The Lumberjacks returned all five starters this season and that chemistry is showing early.  They are 2-3 SU but 4-0 ATS against a brutal schedule.  They only lost by 18 at Michigan State as 21-point dogs, by 16 at Arizona State as 16.5-point dogs, and by 4 at Utah Valley State as 10.5-point dogs.

We've seen Michigan State beat Kentucky outright and only lose to Gonzaga by one.  We've seen Arizona State beat Michigan by 25.  So those losses look even better now.  Plus, the Lumberjacks also upset UC-Santa Barbara outright by 9 as 9-point dogs.  This team is grossly undervalued to start the season.

This game won't be played on Texas' home court either as it will be played on a neutral at Bert Ogden Arena in Edinburg, TX.  Texas is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games away from home following a win.  Northern Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last five neutral site games.  Texas is 1-4 ATS in its last five neutral site games.  The Longhorns are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game.  Roll with Northern Arizona Monday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Minnesota Timberwolves -8

After a slow start to the season due to chemistry issues with Rudy Gobert, the Minnesota Timberwolves are starting to put it together.  They are 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS in their last three games overall and would be 3-0 ATS against the opening line.  They won at Cleveland by 5, at Orlando by 18 and at Philadelphia by 3 as closing 3.5-point favorites.

Now the Timberwolves are back home and rested and ready to go playing just their 3rd game in 8 days.  The same cannot be said for the Miami Heat, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th road game in 6 days.  They are starting to wear down losing three consecutive games including an 87-113 blowout loss in Cleveland last night.

It's going to be another blowout loss for the Heat tonight.  Making matters worse is they have been hit hard by injuries, so they are short-handed, which makes fatigue even more of a factor.  The Heat will be without both Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro tonight, plus both Duncan Robinson and Gabe Vincent are questionable.  The Timberwolves will run them out of the gym and put tempo to use as they rank 2nd in the NBA in pace this season.

The Heat are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games overall.  The Timberwolves are 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings, including 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings in Miami.  Roll with the Timberwolves Monday.

15* CBB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Nebraska-Omaha +30.5

The Iowa Hawkeyes have opened 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS this season.  It's time to 'sell high' on the Hawkeyes now as whopping 30.5-point favorites over a decent Nebraska-Omaha team.  The Hawkeyes are coming off an 83-67 upset win at Seton Hall, which is a Pirates team with a first-year head coach and rebuilding.

Now this is a letdown spot for Iowa.  They return home for Thanksgiving Week and won't be nearly as motivated to beat Omaha as they were to beat Seton Hall.  They also the Emerald Coast Classic on deck against Clemson in Florida starting on Friday, so they will be looking ahead to it.  That makes this a sandwich spot for Iowa, and I don't think they'll be 100% focused, which is going to make it very difficult to cover this 30.5-point spread.

Even if the Hawkeyes were focused it would be hard to cover against this pesky Omaha team.  The Mavericks are 1-3 SU & 3-1 ATS against a brutal schedule.  They only lost by 25 at Kansas as 33.5-point dogs and by 14 at Nebraska as 17.5-point dogs while winning and covering against Idaho and losing by 10 to Ball State.  If they can stay within 25 of Kansas on the road, they can certainly stay within 30.5 of Iowa.

Omaha is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games as an underdog of 10 or more points.  The Mavericks are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, including 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Nebraska-Omaha Monday.

20* CBB Tournament GAME OF THE WEEK on Tarleton State +7.5

Tarleton State made a great hire in Billy Gillispie who is a proven head coach at the D1 level.  He has gone 24-27 in his first two seasons at Tarleton, which have been rebuilding years for him with the Texans just moving to D1 two years ago and joining a loaded Western Athletic Conference.

Gillespie brought back three starters and two key reserves this season.  The Texans opened with a 59-62 loss at Arizona State as 14-point dogs before crushing Kansas Christian 95-49.  And boy does that 3-point loss to ASU look good now.  The Sun Devils upset VCU 63-59 as 3.5-point dogs on Wednesday and followed it up with a blowout upset win over Michigan 87-62 as 7.5-point dogs.

Tarleton followed it up with an 89-81 upset win over Belmont as 4-point underdogs on Friday.  Yesterday the Texans upset Boston College 70-54 as 3.5-point dogs.  That blowout win will keep them fresh for this 3rd game in 4 days, and it will actually only be their 3rd game in 11 days after having seven days off prior to this tournament.

Drake will be playing its 4th game in 8 days.  The Bulldogs have been in three straight battles that went down to the wire too, and fatigue will be a factor as a result.  They beat Wofford 80-72 as 12.5-point favorites, Buffalo 80-72 as 13-point favorites and Wyoming 61-56 as 5-point favorites.  This team is grossly overvalued right now and continues to be as 7.5-point favorites over a Tarleton State team that is more than capable of winning this game outright.  In fact, the Texans are probably the best team the Bulldogs have faced this season.

Drake is 13-23 ATS in its last 36 games overall.  The Bulldogs are 7-16-2 ATS in their last 25 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Drake is 3-10-2 ATS in its last 15 neutral site games.  The Texans are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  Bet Tarleton State Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Magic/Pacers UNDER 227

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  Well, this will be the 2nd meeting in 3 days between the Magic and Pacers.  They combined for 227 points with a 226-point total on Saturday, and now the books have opened the total a notch higher at 227 for the rematch.  They haven't adjusted for the familiarity factor, and we'll take advantage and bet the UNDER.

The Pacers have been much better defensively with a healthy Myles Turner.  The Magic are playing big ball right now due to injuries and it's working and keeping them competitive.  Mo Bamba and Bol Bol both played over 30 minutes against the Pacers on Saturday and combined for 43 points and 20 rebounds.  There isn't much playmaking at the guard position right now without Cole Anthony.

The UNDER is 5-2 in Magic last seven games overall with combined scores of 227 or fewer points in six of those seven games, including 217 or less in five of them.  The Pacers have seen 227 or fewer combined points in three of their last four meetings.  Take the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic +7

I love the spot for the Orlando Magic tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 113-114 loss at Indiana on Saturday.  Now they get their shot at revenge here just two days later in Indiana again.  They go from 6.5-point dogs in the first meeting to 7-point dogs in the second meeting, so the books aren't even adjusting for the revenge factor.

Simply put, you're paying a tax to back the Pacers right now after they have gone 8-2 SU & 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  But this is the perfect spot for a letdown for this young team, and I expect the Magic to win outright.  Getting 7 points is just an added bonus.

The Magic have quietly been very competitive going 5-5 SU & 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They upset the Bulls on the road as 8.5-point dogs, upset the Suns by 17 as 7-point dogs, upset the Mavericks by 7 as 8.5-point dogs and upset the Warriors as 9.5-point dogs during this stretch.  So they have proven they can play with anyone.

Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Indiana) - off a home win scoring 110 points or more, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 46-18 (71.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Magic are 7-1 ATS in their last eight trips to Indiana.  Bet the Magic Monday.

20* CBB Sunday Late-Night BAILOUT On Tarleton State +5.5

Tarleton State made a great hire in Billy Gillispie who is a proven head coach at the D1 level.  He has gone 24-27 in his first two seasons at Tarleton, which have been rebuilding years for him with the Texans just moving to D1 two years ago and joining a loaded Western Athletic Conference.

Gillespie brought back three starters and two key reserves this season.  The Texans opened with a 59-62 loss at Arizona State as 14-point dogs before crushing Kansas Christian 95-49.  And boy does that 3-point loss to ASU look good now.  The Sun Devils upset VCU 63-59 as 3.5-point dogs on Wednesday and followed it up with a blowout upset win over Michigan 87-62 as 7.5-point dogs.

Tarleton followed it up with an 89-81 upset win over Belmont as 4-point underdogs on Friday.  Now the Texans will be playing just their 2nd game in 10 days, so they are fresh and ready to go.  Meanwhile, Boston College will be playing its 4th game in 10 days, so the Golden Eagles are far from fresh.  

The results have been concerning for the Golden Eagles as they are 1-3 ATS with a 2-point win over Cornell as a 9.5-point home favorite, a 4-point win over Detroit as an 8.5-point home favorite and an outright loss to Maine by 5 as a 20.5-point home favorite.  They should not be favored here.  Oddsmakers are putting too much stock in their 15-point win over a bad George Mason team on Friday as 3-point underdogs.  The Texans likely win this game outright.  Bet Tarleton State Sunday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Nuggets/Mavericks UNDER 217.5

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  Well, Denver and Dallas just played on Friday, and now they will play again two days later here Sunday.  Dallas won that first meeting 127-99 thanks to shooting a ridiculous 59.7% from the field, going 46-of-77.  That's not going to happen again.

The Denver Nuggets are going to be without their two best players in Nikola Jokic (20.8 PPG, 9.5 RPG, 8.9 APG) and Jamal Murray (16.5 PPG).  Jokic is a walking triple-double and is the reason their offense has been so efficient.  Without him they are going to be pretty lost on that end of the court.  We've seen that play out in their last two games as they scored 103 on 43.9% shooting against the Knicks and 99 on 42.2% shooting against the Mavericks.

Dallas ranks dead last in pace at 97.3 possessions per game and will control the tempo at home.  The improvement the Mavericks have made defensively under Jason Kidd has been remarkable.  Dallas ranks 5th in defensive efficiency this season.

This total was set at 216 for the first meeting and after going over the total it has been set at 217.5 in the rematch.  That's a mistake from the oddsmakers as they are not factoring in the familiarity factor, plus how well the Mavericks shot in that first meeting.   Denver and Dallas have combined for 215 or fewer points in seven of their last 11 meetings overall.  The UNDER is 41-19-1 in Mavericks last 61 home games.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* Kentucky/Gonzaga ESPN ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 156

Recent games by Gonzaga and Kentucky have oddsmakers setting this total higher than it should be.  That has provided us with excellent value to pull the trigger on the UNDER as these teams would almost have to get to 80 points apiece tonight to beat us.

Kentucky went over the total in its last two games with a 106-63 win over South Carolina State and a 77-86 loss to Michigan State.  But that Michigan State game went to double-overtime.  It was tied 62-62 at the end of regulation for only 124 combined points.

Gonzaga is coming off a 74-93 loss at Texas for 167 combined points.  You know the Bulldogs are going to be pissed off and focused on defense after that effort.  Gonzaga had beaten Michigan St 64-63 in their previous game for just 127 combined points.  Both of these teams are better defensively than they are getting credit for here.

Kentucky is 11-1 UNDER in its last 12 games after scoring 85 points or more.  Gonzaga is 6-0 UNDER in its last six games after playing a road game.  The Wildcats are 7-0 UNDER in their last seven games after a game where they made 55% of their shots or better.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on VCU +10.5

The Memphis Tigers are known for struggling early in the season under Penny Hardaway because he always has a new players every year and the chemistry is an issue.  The Tigers should not be double-digit favorites over VCU because of this.

Memphis opened with a 76-67 win at Vanderbilt, which is a rebuilding Commodores team.  That was evident when Vanderbilt lost outright by 12 as a 16-point home favorite to Southern Miss in their next day.  Memphis then lost by 6 at Saint Louis in a game they trailed by 14 with under four minutes to play.  Saint Louis is good, but they just lost 95-67 to Maryland as a 2.5-point favorite following that Memphis win.

I think this is a great time to 'buy low' on VCU.  The Rams went 22-10 last season and were expected to be one of the top teams in the A-10 this season.  But they have opened 3-1 SU but 0-3-1 ATS, so they have been overvalued laying 22.5, 20, 4 and 4 points.  Now they are an underdog for the first time this season.  They beat Pittsburgh last time out and only lost by 4 to Arizona State, which just beat Michigan by 25 as a 7.5-point dog the game following the VCU win.

VCU is 20-5 ATS in its last last 25 games as an underdog of 10 or more points.  The Rams are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a road dog of 9.5 to 12 points.  This is exactly the price range we want to be betting the Rams and it's a great 'buy low' spot.  Take VCU Sunday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Charleston +5.5

Charleston is clearly loaded this season.  They are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS against a brutal schedule.  Their lone loss came at UNC on the road in which they covered.  They also beat Chattanooga by 7 as 4-point favorites, Richmond by 2 as 2.5-point favorites, Davidson by 23 as 3-point favorites and Colorado State by 10 as 1-point favorites.  

The Cougars should not be underdogs to Virginia Tech.  This is listed as a neutral court game but it's actually played on Charleston's home court.  Virginia Tech is rebuilding this season and is overvalued due to a 5-0 start against a soft schedule.  The first three wins came against Delaware State, Lehigh and William & Mary all at home.  They then struggled on a neutral to beat Old Dominion by 4 as a 14-point favorite and failed to cover as a 3-point favorite in a 2-point win over Penn State.

Charleston is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games as an underdog.  Charleston is 16-4 ATS in its last 20 games vs. teams that are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game.  The Hokies are 7-16-1 ATS in their last 24 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Cougars are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  The Cougars are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with Charleston Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on UC-Irvine +3.5

UC-Irvine returned three starters and four players who logged at least 20 minutes per game last season.  The Anteaters went 15-10 last season and should be one of the better teams in the Big West. They're off to a very impressive 3-0 SU & 2-0 ATS start this season with a 69-56 upset win at Oregon as 15.5-point dogs and a 79-64 blowout home win over Loyola-Marymount as 4.5-point favorites.  Not having a letdown following that Oregon upset was mighty impressive.

Pepperdine has been much less impressive.  They are 3-1 against a soft schedule but lost 71-74 as 4-point road favorites at CS-Fullerton.  Their 94-80 home win over Vanguard University was lackluster in their last game coming in.  And I just don't think head coach Lorenzo Romar is very good.

UC-Irvine crushed Pepperdine 82-48 as a 10-point favorite last season.  Now the Anteaters come back as underdogs in the rematch, which makes zero sense to me.  They are the better team and should be favored in this game even if it is a road game as Pepperdine won't have much of a home-court advantage.

Pepperdine is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games vs. excellent teams that shoot 45% or better and allow 42% or worse.  Roll with UC-Irvine Saturday. 

20* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Seattle +3.5

Seattle went 23-9 in Chris Victor's first season with the team.  Now he returns four starters as the Redhawks are absolutely loaded.  That includes Cameron Tyson (14.7 PPG, 5.2 RPG) and Riley Grigsby (12.8 PPG, 3.6 RPG).  They also return three reserves that scored at least 4.2 PPG last year.

The Redhawks are off and running with a 3-0 start this season covering the spread in their two lined games.  They won 85-71 at UC-San Diego as 3.5-point road favorites, 106-55 over Puget Sound and 83-71 at home over Portland State as 9.5-point favorites.

That gives these teams a common opponent in Portland State, which Portland beat 98-91 as a 15.5-point favorite.  Portland is 4-1 this season but lost to the best team they played 65-77 at Kent State.  The Pilots were supposed to be loaded this season returning all 5 starters from a 19-15 team.  They they are without Chris Austin (14.4 PPG, 4.3 RPG last year) and could be without Mike Meadows (10.2 PPG, 3.0 APG), who is questionable.

The spot really favors Seattle tonight.  They have had the last five days off and will be playing just their 2nd game in 10 days, so they have had a ton of time to rest up and game plan for the Pilots.  Meanwhile, Portland will be playing its 6th game in 13 days to start the season.  They just played at Air Force on Thursday and only have one day to game plan for Seattle.  They are at a huge rest and preparation disadvantage here.

Seattle crushed Portland 84-68 at home and 84-72 on the road in the two most recent meetings.  The Redhawks are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game.  Seattle is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 road games.  The Pilots are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.  Bet Seattle Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Minnesota Timberwolves +2.5

This is a terrible spot for the Philadelphia 76ers.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 110-102 upset home win over the Milwaukee Bucks last night.  Joel Embiid played 36 minutes last night and six players played at least 30 minutes.  They also lost Tyrese Maxey (22.9 PPG) to an ankle injury in that game and he is doubtful to play tonight.  Tobias Harris (14.7 PPG) sat out last night and is questionable as well.

Meanwhile, the Timberwolves come in on two days' rest and playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.  They are finally playing up to their potential too following up a 129-124 upset win in Cleveland with a dominant 126-108 win at Orlando.  I expect them to win and cover their third consecutive game tonight given the terrible spot for the 76ers and the injuries.  It's definitely a letdown spot for Philadelphia after a win over the Bucks, too.

The Timberwolves are 8-0 ATS in their last eight Saturday games.  Take the Timberwolves Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Hawks -5

I love the spot for the Atlanta Hawks tonight.  They come in on two days' rest and will be pissed off following a 25-point loss to the Celtics.  That followed up a 15-point win at Milwaukee in their previous game to flash their potential.  The also want revenge from a 30-point loss at Toronto in their first meeting this season.

But while the Hawks are fully healthy right now, the Raptors are missing four of their top seven scorers.  They will be without Pascal Siakam (24.8 PPG), Gary Trent Jr. (16.6 PPG), Chris Boucher (12.3 PPG) and Precious Achiuwa (8.8 PPG).  They also could be without Otto Porter Jr., who is questionable.  The just don't have the horses to be competitive in this game without these guys.

Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Atlanta) - revenging a loss by 10 points or more, a well-rested team playing only their 2nd game in 5 days are 61-31 (66.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Raptors are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.  Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last five home meetings with Toronto.  Bet the Hawks Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Youngstown State -6.5

Youngstown State is loaded this season with three starters and three key reserves returning.  They went 19-15 last season and the Penguins are off to an impressive 3-1 SU & 3-0 ATS start this season.  They won 92-81 at Canisius as 3.5-point favorites, won 90-72 at home over Tennessee-Martin as 8.5-point favorites, only lost 81-88 at Notre Dame as 10.5-point dogs and crushed Grace Christian 96-68 at home.

UC-San Diego looks like the worst team in the Big West this season.  They went 13-16 last year and now lose leading scorer Toni Rocak (15.2 PPG, 6.5 RPG) along with Jake Killingsworth (7.2 PPG, 4.0 RPG).  They are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS this season with losses to Seattle by 14 as 3.5-point home dogs, Sacramento State by 10 as 2-point home favorites and at Navy by 9 as 5-point road dogs.

The spot really favors Youngstown State, too.  The Penguins have had the last three days off to rest up and game plan for UC-San Diego.  Meanwhile, the Tritons just lost to Navy yesterday and will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, a rarity in college basketball that these players aren't used to.  Not only that but they went to OT with Navy yesterday, so all of their starters are gassed.  Three played 37-plus minutes.

UC-San Diego is 0-8 ATS in its last eight road games after playing a road game.  Youngstown State is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 road games after a game where it made 78% or better from the FT line.  The Penguins are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games coming off two consecutive games where they made 50% of their shots or better.  The Tritons are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games after a game with 5 or fewer offensive rebounds.  Take Youngstown State Saturday.

20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Missouri State -2

Missouri State struck gold in the transfer portal under head coach Dana Ford to reload following a 23-11 season last year.  He brought in seven Division 1 transfers from places like Maryland, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Georgia, Akron and Colorado State.  This team is loaded again this season.

We saw that play out in their first two games with an 82-47 win over Missouri S&T followed by a very impressive 64-66 loss at BYU as 9.5-point dogs.  Now they take on a Middle Tennessee team That lost their top two players from last season in Josh Jefferson (14.7 PG) and Donovan Sims (11.6 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 100 assists).

Middle Tennessee has beaten up on two overmatched opponents at home in Brescia and Rice.  But in their lone road game they lost 68-76 at Winthrop despite being 2.5-point favorites.  Now they're on the road again here and this will be their toughest test of the season.  I think getting Missouri State as a short home favorite is an excellent value.

The Bears are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 home games vs. a team that wins less than 40% of their road games.  Missouri State is 26-12 ATS in its last 38 games as a favorite.  Middle Tennessee head coach MdDevitt is 0-6 ATS in road games after leading the previous game by 15 points or more at halftime as the coach of the Blue Raiders.  Roll with Missouri State Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Pacers/Rockets OVER 236

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team under head coach Rick Carlisle.  They have combined for 251 points with the Pelicans, 241 points with the Nuggets and 238 points with the Hornets in going OVER the total in three of their last four games overall.  The lone exception was the 118-104 win over a Toronto team that was missing several starters and was handicapped on offense because of it.

Houston is also a dead nuts OVER team and will gladly get into a shootout with the Pacers.  Houston ranks 28th in defensive efficiency while Indiana ranks 27th.  Indiana ranks 2nd in the NBA in pace this season while Houston ranks 9th in pace.  So we have two of the fastest-tempo teams going up against two teams that don't play defense.

Indiana beat Houston 121-118 in their final meeting last season for 239 combined points.  The OVER is 14-6 in Pacers last 20 games overall.  The OVER is 21-7-1 in Pacers last 29 games playing on one days' rest.  The OVER is 7-2 in Rockets last nine home games.  Take the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Thunder/Grizzlies OVER 231

The books are failing to adjust to how the Oklahoma City Thunder are playing right now.  They have gone OVER the total in five consecutive games.  They combined for 268 points with Milwaukee, 245 points with Toronto, 280 points with New York, 248 points with Boston and 241 points with Washington in their last five games.

They have been playing this way for a while now and it's working as they are 7-5 SU in their last 12 games overall, so they aren't going to abandon it.  The OVER is now 9-2 in their last 11 games overall with combined scores of 228 or more points in eight of those 11 games.  This total of 231 is just too low with the way they are playing right now.

The Memphis Grizzlies will oblige in an up-tempo affair.  JA Morant will enjoy going toe-to-toe with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who has been one of the best players in the NBA this season.  The Grizzlies aren't playing much defense this season as they rank 22nd in defensive efficiency.  

These teams combined for 243 points in their most recent meeting.  They have combined for 231 or more points in four of their last six meetings with the OVER going 5-1 in those six.  The OVER is 7-1 in Grizzlies last eight games vs. a team with a losing record.  The OVER is 7-1 in Thunder last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  OKC is 7-0 OVER vs. teams that attempt 24 or fewer free throws per game this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Indiana/Xavier FS1 No-Brainer on Xavier +4

Sean Miller is 425-156 as a head coach including 123-47 at Xavier.  He returned to Xavier this season and the cupboard was far from bare.  The Musketeers returned four starters including three double-digit scorers.  Miller is a master recruiter as well, so the Musketeers are loaded.

They are off to a 3-0 start this season with wins by 23 over Morgan State, by 22 over Montana and by 13 over Fairfield.  Now they host the Indiana Hoosiers and should not be home underdogs in this game.  Indiana is getting too much credit for blowout wins over Morehead State and Bethune-Cookman to start the season.

Indiana is 5-18 ATS in its last 23 road games following a blowout win by 30 points or more.  The Musketeers are 5-0 ATS in their last five Friday games.  Wrong team favored here.  Take Xavier Friday.

15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Tarleton State +5

Tarleton State made a great hire in Billy Gillispie who is a proven head coach at the D1 level.  He has gone 24-27 in his first two seasons at Tarleton, which have been rebuilding years for him with the Texans just moving to D1 two years ago and joining a loaded Western Athletic Conference.

Gillespie brought back three starters and two key reserves this season.  The Texans opened with a 59-62 loss at Arizona State as 14-point dogs before crushing Kansas Christian 95-49.  And boy does that 3-point loss to ASU look good now.  The Sun Devils upset VCU 63-59 as 3.5-point dogs on Wednesday and followed it up with a blowout upset win over Michigan 87-62 as 7.5-point dogs.

This is a rebuilding year for Belmont.  They lost four starters and brought back just one double-digit scorer.  The Bruins are lucky they aren't 0-3 SU.  They beat Ohio 70-69 as 6-point home favorites, lost 74-89 at Furman as 9-point dogs and were upset 75-77 at Lipscomb as 3-point favorites.  They have no business being 5-point favorites over Tarleton on a neutral here given those ugly results thus far.

The Bruins are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games overall.  Belmont is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS loss.  Roll with Tarleton State Friday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on St. Thomas +5.5

St. Thomas played its first season in Division 1 last season.  It predictably didn't go great as they went just 10-20 overall.  But they returned their two best players from that team in Riley Miller (15.4 PPG) and Parker Bjorklund (12.7 PPG, 6.3 RPG), who are both deadly from 3-point range.  Head coach John Tauer added several Division 1 transfers and one of the best prep recruiting classes in the conference, lead by the in-state duo of Ahjany Lee and Kendall Blue.

St. Thomas is off to an impressive 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS start this season.  They blew out Chicago State 83-61 as a 9-point favorite and St. Francis 84-48 as an 8-point favorite.  Chicago State just upset Valparaiso as a 9.5-point dog last night.  But the loss may have been the most impressive.  St. Thomas only lost 72-60 at Creighton as a 28-point dog.  That's a Creighton team that is loaded and ranked in the Top 10.

Montana went 18-14 last season and did return a lot of their players, but clearly those players aren't very good when you look at their first two games this season.  Montana lost 91-63 at Duquesne as a 3-point underdog and 86-64 at Xavier as an 18-point dog.  Th Grizzlies have no business being a 5.5-point favorite against St. Thomas given what we've seen from these teams thus far.

The Tommies are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Grizzlies are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  Keep in mind this is a neutral site game in Houston as well, so there's certainly no way Montana should be favored by this much, let alone favored at all.  The Grizzlies are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 neutral site games.  Roll with St. Thomas Thursday.

20* Michigan/Arizona State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Michigan -7

The Michigan Wolverines are coming off a 91-60 win as 8.5-point favorites over Pittsburgh yesterday at the Barclays Center.  They got to rest their starters late and also played the early game, so they will be the fresher team here against Arizona State.

Arizona State needed a second half comeback to beat VCU 63-59 as 3.5-point underdogs.  That win will have taken a lot out of them.  That was a VCU team that was without their best player in Patrick Balwin, who was a late scratch.  They will get blasted tonight against the best opponent they have faced this season.

Prior to that VCU victory, there were some very concerning results for Arizona State.  They only beat Tarleton State 62-59 as 14-point home favorites, beat Northern Arizona 84-68 as 16.5-point home favorites and actually lost outright at Texas Southern 66-67 as 11-point road favorites.  So they failed to cover three straight games against suspect competition and nearly lost two of them outright.

The Wolverines are 35-15-2 ATS in their last 52 neutral site games.  The Sun Devils are 18-37-2 ATS in their last 57 neutral site games.  Arizona State is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 non-conference games.  Bet Michigan Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Night BLOWOUT on Portland -3.5

The Portland Pilots are loaded this season and a sleeper in the WCC.  They returned all five starters and 91% of their scoring from a team that went 19-15 in Shantay Legans' first year on the job.  Chris Austin (14.4 PPG, 4.3 RPG in 2021-22) has yet to play this season and is questionable tonight, but they are still loaded even without him.

The Pilots got off to a 3-0 start this season with wins by 27, 37 and 8 points at home before going on the road and losing 65-77 at Kent State.  But the Golden Flashes are one of the best mid majors in the country as they are 4-0 this season with wins by 26, 22, 21 and that 12-point victory.  That loss to a very good Kent State team last time out has Portland undervalued tonight.

Now I expect the Pilots to bounce back in blowout fashion against Air Force tonight.  Air Force went 11-18 last season including 4-13 in Mountain West play.  They lost two of their best players from that team including leading scorer A.J. Walker (14.2 PPG in 2021-22).  They return only one double-digit scorer.

To no surprise, it has been a rough start for the Falcons.  They lost 58-62 at Bowling Green, only beat Delaware 75-71 at home and lost outright at home to Texas A&M Commerce 73-69 as a 10-point favorite.  They can't be losing to Texas A&M Commerce at home and expect to beat Portland, which will be by far their toughest opponent to date.

The Pilots are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss.  Portland is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a SU loss.  The Falcons are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.  Portland is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games following a loss.  Take Portland Thursday.

20* Gonzaga/Texas ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Texas +1

Chris Beard is one of the best head coaches in the country and went 22-12 in his first season in Texas.  The Longhorns should be even better this season, which is saying something considering they were one of only 10 teams to rank in the Top 30 in KenPom's offensive and defensive efficiency rankings last season.

The Longhorns return Marcus Carr (11.4 PPG), Timmy Allen (12.1 PPG, 6.4 RPG) and Christian Bishop (7.0 PPG, 5.6 RPG) as three starters.  They bring ing Iowa State transfer Tyrese Hunters (11.0 PPG) who scored in double figures 20 times last season.  Sir-Jabari Rice was a double-figure scorer three consecutive years at New Mexico State.  Freshman Dillon Mitchell was the No. 5 ranked overall player in the 2022 class.

Texas opened with a 72-57 win over a solid UTEP team before crushing Houston Christian 82-31 as a 31-point favorite.  The Longhorns could very well be the best defensive team in the country, and I look for them to shut down the Gonzaga Bulldogs tonight.

We saw a chink in Gonzaga's armor with a 64-63 win over Michigan State as a 12-point favorite last time out.  The Longhorns can do the same.  They will be out for revenge from a 74-86 loss at Gonzaga last season.  That was a very good Gonzaga team, and they should be down a notch or two this season, while Texas is improved.  Plus, the Longhorns get them at home this time around.  Wrong team favored here in what is going to be a raucous atmosphere in Austin.  Roll with Texas Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Thunder/Wizards OVER 225.5

The books are failing to adjust to how the Oklahoma City Thunder are playing right now.  They have gone OVER the total in four consecutive games.  They combined for 268 points with Milwaukee, 245 points with Toronto, 280 points with New York and 248 points with Boston in their last four games.

They have been playing this way for a while now and it's working as they are 6-5 SU in their last 11 games overall, so they aren't going to abandon in.  The OVER is now 8-2 in their last 10 games overall with combined scores of 228 or more points in seven of those 10 games.  This total of 225.5 is just too low with the way they are playing right now.

The Washington Wizards will oblige and play the up-tempo game with them.  The Wizards get a big boost tonight with the return of their best player in Bradley Beal (21.6 PPG).  He has been out since November 4th, and he'll give their offense a big boost tonight now that he's back healthy.

The Wizards and Thunder have combined for at least 226 points in three of their last four meetings, including 240 points in their most recent meeting.  The OVER is 20-6 in Thunder last 26 games following an ATS win.  The OVER is 16-7 in Wizards last 23 home games.  The OVER is 21-9-1 in Wizards last 31 games following a win.  The OVER is 64-31-1 in Wizards last 96 games playing on two days' rest, including 10-1 OVER In their last 11 home games when playing on two days' rest.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Nets/Kings TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento -1.5

The Sacramento Kings have rebounded from an 0-4 start to go 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall to get to .500 on the season.  They would love that feeling of a winning record, and I think they get it tonight with a win and cover at home against the Brooklyn Nets.

The Kings are getting zero respect for this run they are one, which continues to make them an undervalued commodity and I keep cashing in.  I backed them in each of their last three games in a 127-120 upset win as 4-point dogs over the Cavaliers, a 120-114 win at the Lakers as 4.5-point favorites and a 122-115 upset win as 4-point dogs to Golden State.

The Nets are getting respect for their 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS run without Kyrie Irving.  No question their chemistry has been better without him, but they've also taken advantage of a very easy schedule.  Now is the time to fade them after a 103-116 loss to the Lakers without LeBron James.  Their run just came an end, and this team simply doesn't have the talent or depth to be very good on a nightly basis.  It's one of my favorite teams to fade in the NBA.  It will also be their 3rd game in 4 days after spending two days in Los Angeles, which is a distraction.

The Nets are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss.  The Kings are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games playing on one days' rest.  Plays on home teams with a line of +3 to -3 (Sacramento) 0 after winning five or six of its last seven games, winning between 45-55% of their games are 49-15 (76.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays against road underdogs (Brooklyn) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, winning between 40-49% of their games are 31-7 (81.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Kings Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Los Angeles Clippers +7.5

This line has been adjusted way too much in Dallas' favor for the Los Angeles Clippers playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, while the Mavericks come in on two days' rest.  The spot isn't worth this many points as these are two pretty evenly-matched teams without the spot.  I'll gladly take the 7.5 points with the Clippers tonight.

The Mavericks shouldn't be favored this heavily over anyone right now.  They are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall with five wins during this stretch all coming by 9 points or fewer, with four wins by 5 points or fewer.  They also lost outright to the Wizards as 6-point favorites, to the Magic as 8.5-point favorites and to the Thunder as 10.5-point favorites.  This team just can't be trusted right now.

The spot isn't even bad for the Clippers.  They will only be playing their 3rd game in 6 days here.  They made easy work in a 122-106 win at Houston last night, so it's a short travel to Dallas.  Nobody even played 30 minutes last night for the Clippers, so they should still be very fresh.  They are one of the deepest teams in the NBA with Mann, Powell, Batum and Covington all coming off the bench, so they can handle these back-to-backs better than most teams.

The Mavericks are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a win.  The Clippers are 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to Dallas.  Roll with the Clippers Tuesday.

20* Grizzlies/Pelicans TNT No-Brainer on New Orleans -3

The New Orleans Pelicans have been a dangerous team with the Big 4 of Ingram (21.4 PPG), Williamson (23.5 PPG), McCollum (17.8 PPG, 6.3 APG) and Valanciunas (13.8 PG, 10.1 RPG) have been healthy this season.  All four are expected to play tonight, and I like the Pelicans laying this short number at home against the Memphis Grizzlies.

While Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. are both expected to play tonight, both are hampered by injuries.  Jackson Jr. will be on a minutes restriction in his season debut.  The big loss for the Grizzlies is Desmond Bane, who is arguably the most underrated player in the entire NBA.  He averages 24.7 points, 4.9 rebounds and 4.8 assists per game.  He'll be out until December.  The Grizzlies lost outright at Washington by 10 in their first and only game without Bane this season.

The Grizzlies are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.  The Pelicans are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  New Orleans is 5-1 ATS in its last six home meetings with Memphis.  Bet the Pelicans Tuesday.

15* Michigan State/Kentucky ESPN ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 141.5

Michigan State is coming off two low scoring games to start the season.  They won 73-55 over Northern Arizona for 128 combined points and a total of 144.  They lost 63-64 to Gonzaga for 127 combined points and a total of 142.  And now the books have set the number too high again with this 141.5-point total against a very good defensive team in Kentucky.

Kentucky has been without Oscar Tshiebwe (17.3 PPG, 15.3 RPG, 46 blocks last season) in his first two games this season.  But he is expected to make his season debut tonight, and he is arguably the best defender in the country.  They held Howard to 63 points and Duquesne to 52 in their two games without him.  Michigan State will have a hard time finishing anything at the rim with Tshiebwe in there tonight.

Kentucky is 16-3 UNDER in its last 19 games following a home win.  The Wildcats are 10-1 UNDER in their last 11 games following a blowout home win by 20 points or more.  The UNDER is 59-29 in Wildcats last 88 games following a win.  Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* Spurs/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on San Antonio +7.5

The Golden State Warriors are going through the motions early in the season after winning the title last year.  The Warriors are slacking on defense, ranking 25th in defensive efficiency.  They are allowing 119.2 points per game and 46.9% shooting to their opponents.  That's the biggest reason they are 5-8 SU & 4-9 ATS and have been grossly overvalued.

Now the Warriors will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after a 115-122 road loss to the Kings last night.  Curry, Green, Thompson and Wiggins all played at least 32 minutes last night.  The Warriors are getting no help from their bench, another reason they are struggling this season.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Spurs tonight.

Meanwhile, San Antonio comes in rested and ready to go on two days' rest after last playing on Friday in a 111-93 home victory over the Bucks.  The Spurs have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season as they are 6-7 SU & 8-5 ATS.  They show up every night, and they'll certainly show up against the defending champs tonight with a lot more energy than the Warriors with this rest advantage.

San Antonio is 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four meetings with the Warriors with the two losses coming by 6 and 4 points.  The road team has won five consecutive meetings outright.  San Antonio is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games following an ATS win.  The Spurs are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 games overall.  San Antonio is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 road games.  The Spurs are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games when playing on two days' rest.  Golden State is 1-8 ATS vs. a team with a losing record this season.  Bet the Spurs Monday.

15* CBB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Oral Roberts +20.5

The Houston Cougars are getting a lot of love after opening the season with two blowout wins over Northern Colorado and St. Joseph's.  While the Cougars are still loaded this season, they should not be favored by 20-plus points against a 'game' Oral Roberts team tonight.

The Cougars lost four double-digit scorers from last season in Edwards (13.8 PPG, 5.9 RPG), White Jr. (12.5 PPG, 5.7 RPG), Carlton (11.6 PPG, 6.2 RPG) and Moore (10.4 PPG, 4.9 RPG).  Their backcourt is loaded, but their frontcourt will take a step back.

Oral Roberts is among the favorites to win the Summit League this season.  They went 19-12 last season and brought back four starters, including star G Max Abmas (22.8 PPG, 3.7 APG last year.  They returned six other players that averaged at least 6.6 PPG last season including Issac McBride (12.3 PPG) and Elijah Lufile (7.9 PPG, 7.0 RPG).

I was impressive with the 70-78 loss at St. Mary's as 9-point dogs in their opener that flashed the potential of the Golden Eagles.  St. Mary's beat Vermont 79-53 as an 8-point favorite and North Texas 63-33 as a 9.5-point favorite.  So that 8-point loss to the Gaels looks even better after seeing what St. Mary's has done against their other two opponents.

The Golden Eagles are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 road games.  Oral Roberts is 16-4-1 ATS in its last 21 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Golden Eagles are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games after making 13 or more 3-pointers last game.  Oral Roberts is 9-0 ATS in its last nine road games after a game with 5 or fewer offensive rebounds.  The Golden Eagles will give the Cougars more of a fight than they bargained for tonight.  Roll with Oral Roberts Monday.

20* Thunder/Celtics NBA TV No-Brainer on OVER 228

The Oklahoma City Thunder have changed to an up-tempo game that fits their young roster in the last week and the oddsmakers are failing to adjust.  They lost to the Bucks and all their backups 136-132 (OT) for 268 combined points, beat the Raptors 132-113 for 245 combined points and beat the Knicks 145-135 for 280 combined points in their last three games coming in.

This 228-point total has been set too low with the way the Thunder are playing right now.  Now they face a Boston Celtics team that is far and away 1st in offensive efficiency this season, scoring 117.8 points per 100 possessions.  But the Celtics have taken a big step back in defensive efficiency, allowing 111.1 points per 100 possessions.  They really miss the Robert Williams, who has been out with an injury all season.

The OVER is 5-1-1 in Celtics last seven games overall with at least 225 combined points in six of those seven games.  The OVER is 6-0 in Thunder last six games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.  The OVER is 7-2 in Thunder last nine games overall.  The OVER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.  The OVER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings in Boston.  Take the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +5.5

The Toronto Raptors are 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall with their lone win coming 116-109 at home over the lowly Houston Rockets as 10-point favorites.  They lost by 14 at Chicago, by 19 at Oklahoma City and by 18 at Indiana.

A big reason for the Raptors' struggles is that they are now without three of their top four scorers in Pascal Siakam (24.8 PPG, 9.3 RPG, 7.7 APG), Fred VanVleet (18.4 PPG, 6.8 APG) and Gary Trent Jr. (16.6 PPG) tonight.  They cannot be 5.5-point road favorites over the Pistons tonight missing these three guys.

The Raptors are a tired team to boot playing their 6th game in 9 days, so it hurts them even more being without these guys.  The Pistons are rested and ready to go playing only their 5th game in 10 days here.  They were competitive in their loss to the Celtics losing by 9 even without Cade Cunningham.  Jaden Ivey is quickly blossoming into a star scoring 26 points in the loss.

Detroit is 34-19 ATS in its last 53 games following a home loss.  The Pistons are 33-19 ATS in their last 52 games following three or more consecutive losses.  Amazingly, Detroit is 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in its last six meetings with Toronto with six outright wins as underdogs.  They clearly have this team figured out, and it will be even easier for them with the Raptors missing three of their top four scorers.  Take the Pistons Monday.

20* NBA Sunday Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento Kings +4.5

The Sacramento Kings have quietly gone 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Their two losses came by 3 points at Miami and by 3 points at Golden State.  They have upset the Cavaliers and Heat during this stretch as well.

Now the Kings have double-revenge here after losing to the Warriors by 5 and 3 points in two road games this season.  Now the Kings get the Warriors at home this time around, and I expect them to win outright, let alone staying within 4.5 points here.

The Warriors are going through the motions early in the season after winning the title last year.  They certainly won't be motivated to beat the Kings for a third time already this season.  The Warriors are slacking on defense, ranking 24th in defensive efficiency.  They are allowing 119.0 points per game and 46.5% shooting to their opponents.  That's the biggest reason they are 5-7 SU & 4-8 ATS and have been grossly overvalued.

Plays against road favorites (Golden State) - off two or more consecutive home wins, in Sunday games are 29-7 (80.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Warriors are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.  The Kings are 6-0 ATS in their last six games playing on one days' rest.  Sacramento is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  Bet the Kings Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Chicago Bulls +2

I love the spot for the Chicago Bulls tonight.  They have lost three of their last four against a brutal schedule of Boston, Toronto (twice) and New Orleans.  They'll be highly motivated for a victory tonight as a result, and I like their chances considering they are well-rested after having the LAST THREE DAYS OFF!

The Nuggets don't have the same luxury.  They will be playing their 4th consecutive road games and their 4th road game in 7 days.  They started to show some fatigue in their 112-131 loss at Boston on Friday after barely squeaking by against the Pacers by 3 and Spurs by 6 in their two prior road games.  Denver will be without Bones Hyland, who averages 14.0 PPG in just 20.7 minutes per game this season and is a key cog off their bench.

The Bulls won both meetings with the Nuggets last season.  The Nuggets are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.  Chicago is 5-0 ATS in its last five games when playing on three or more days' rest.  The Bulls are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 Sunday games.  Roll with the Bulls Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Utah Jazz +3.5

The Utah Jazz have been grossly undervalued to start the season.  They are 10-4 SU & 10-4 ATS this season and got back way better pieces in the Mitchell and Gobert trades than they got credit for.  Markkanen (22.3 PPG, 8.5 RPG), Sexton (13.9 PG), Olynyk (12.1 PPG), Beasley (11.8 PPG), Vanderbilt (8.6 PPG, 8.1 RPG) and Horton-Tucker (7.9 PPG) are meshing well with holdovers Clarkson (18.6 PPG, 4.9 APG) and Conley (11.4 PPG, 8.2 APG).

The Philadelphia 76ers have been grossly overvalued this season.  They are 6-7 SU & 6-7 ATS and now they are without one of their best players in James Harden until December.  I backed the 76ers last night in a great spot as they were out for revenge on the Hawks and got that revenge.  But now I expect them to be flat tonight, while the Jazz will be motivated after an upset loss to the Wizards last night.

Both teams will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, but the spot is better for the Jazz.  They are a deeper team and will handle this spot better because of it.  They also had two days off prior to playing the Wizards last night.  Meanwhile, the 76ers have zero depth without Harden now and will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days.  Embiid played 40 minutes, Harris 38 and Maxey 36 last night.  The Jazz only had one player play more than 30 minutes last night.

Utah is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall.  Philadelphia is 9-19 ATS in its last 28 games following an ATS win.  Utah is 9-1 ATS as an underdog this season.  The Jazz are 7-0 ATS when playing six or more games in 10 days this season.  Take the Jazz Sunday.

20* CBB GAME OF THE WEEK on Oakland +10

Oakland went 20-12 last season and brought back three starters from that team including G Jalen Moore (15.5 PPG, 4.3 RPG) and Trey Townsend (13.3 PPG, 5.6 RPG).  Head coach Greg Kampe also brought in an impressive haul of transfers, including Rocket Watts (Michigan State & Miss State), Lorne Bowman (Wisconsin) and Keaton Hervey (Missouri State).

The Golden Grizzlies got off to a great start this season with a 92-27 win over Defiance, which wasn't too 'defiant' in this one.  But they were probably caught looking ahead to Oklahoma State when they lost 82-87 as 7.5-point home favorites to Bowling Green last time out.  Alas, now that loss works in our favor here as Oakland is catching too many points in this game catching 10 at home.

Oklahoma State has been far from impressive this season.  After beating UT-Arlington 77-66 as a 20.5-point home favorite, the Cowboys lost outright as 8.5-point home favorites to Southern Illinois.  Now they are overvalued once again in their third game laying double-digits on the road to a game Oakland team that has pulled some big upsets in recent years against Power 5 schools, or at the very least hung tough.

Indeed, last year Oakland won 56-55 as a 17-point underdog at Oklahoma State.  The Golden Grizzlies only lost 71-84 as 22.5-point underdogs at Oklahoma State two seasons ago.  They've proven they can hang with this team already, and now they finally get them at home and are catching double-digits.  Roll with Oakland Sunday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rockets/Pelicans OVER 232

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off tonight when the Houston Rockets visit the New Orleans Pelicans Saturday night.  The Rockets rank 7th in pace and 28th in defensive efficiency this season, allowing 114.3 points per 100 possessions.

The Pelicans are loaded on offense ranking 8th in offensive efficiency at 111.4 points per 100 possessions.  But they have been disappointing thus far this season because of their lack of defense.  The Pelicans rank 19th in defensive efficiency, allowing 109.1 points per 100 possessions.

Houston has gone OVER the total in three consecutive games with combined scores of 246, 261 and 225 points.  The OVER is 5-1 in Rockets last six road games.  The OVER is 6-1 in Rockets last seven Saturday games.  The OVER is 6-2 in Pelicans last eight home games.  The OVER is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Philadelphia 76ers -3

I love the spot for the Philadelphia 76ers tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 95-104 road loss at Atlanta on Thursday in which they shot just 38.6% from the floor.  This is now a 'buy low' spot on them as they are favored by only 3 points at home in the rematch here two days later.

It's also time to 'sell high' on the Hawks, who are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They are a terrible road team and did most of their damage at home with four of their last five games in Atlanta.

The Hawks are 2-13 ATS in their last 15 road games vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make at least 36% of their attempts.  Atlanta is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 road games when playing its 3rd game in 4 days.  The Hawks are 9-20 ATS in their last 29 road games.  Bet the 76ers Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +9.5

I love the spot for the Detroit Pistons tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 112-128 loss in Boston on Wednesday where they shot 41.6% while the Celtics shot 53.4%.  Now they get their shot at revenge just three days later here Saturday and are catching 9.5 points at home, which gives us a ton of wiggle room.

It's a bad spot for both teams, but a better one for the Pistons because of the revenge plus they will be the fresher team.  Both teams will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  But the Pistons are the deeper team and will be playing just their 4th game in 8 days, while the Celtics will be playing their 6th game in 9 days.

It's also a great time to 'sell high' on the Celtics after winning five consecutive games coming in.  It would not shock me one bit to see them rest some starters after Jayson Tatum played over 37 minutes, Jaylen Brown over 34 minutes, Al Horford over 34 minutes and Grant Williams over 32 minutes last night in the big win over Denver.

Boston is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games following two consecutive covers as a favorite.  The Celtics are 2-15 ATS in their last 17 games vs. teams that are outrebounded by 3-plus boards per game.  The Pistons are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 39% or better.  Detroit is 5-1 ATS in its last six games playing on zero rest.  Detroit is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings, including 5-0 ATS in the last five home meetings.  Take the Pistons Saturday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Indiana Pacers -1

The Indiana Pacers have quietly gone 4-2 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  I love the spot for them now coming in on two days' rest and playing just their 3rd game in 8 days.  They will be fresh and ready to go tonight.

The same cannot be said for the Toronto Raptors, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  They started to show their fatigue last night losing 113-132 on the road to the lowly Oklahoma City Thunder.  They are still without their best player in Pascal Siakam (24.8 PPG, 9.3 RPG, 7.7 APG), and they aren't a very deep team as it is.

The Raptors are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games playing on zero rest.  The Raptors are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a losing record.  Indiana is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Indiana should be favored by more today given how much the spot favors them.  Roll with the Pacers Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Georgia Tech -1.5

Two years ago Georgia Tech surprised everyone and won the ACC Tournament to make the Big Dance.  That makes their 12-20 season last year a disappointment.  But this is now a good opportunity to 'buy low' on the Yellow Jackets early this season.

Josh Pastner is a great recruiter and does have a pair of returning starters to work with.  But the excitement comes with a pair of transfers Gardner Webb star Lance Terry (14.3 PPG last year) and South Alabama's best player Ja'von Franklin (12.2 PPG, 7.8 RPG last year).  

The Yellow Jackets crushed Clayton State 93-63 behind a balanced effort with six players scoring in double figures.  Terry led the way with 16 points while Franking had seven points and five rebounds and wasn't even one of the ones in double-digits.  That's a good sign moving forward and shows this team may have better depth than expected.

But this play is more of a fade of Georgia State than anything.  Head coach Rob Lanier departed for SMU after leading the Panthers to two consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances.  Now this team is getting way too much respect early in the season based on what they did in the past, not what they're going to do this season.

Indeed, the Panthers lost all five starters from last season.  First-year head coach Jonas Hayes, a former Xavier assistant, has his hands full.  Georgia State was unimpressive in a 76-59 win over Coastal Georgia in their opener.  This is a massive step up in class for this young, inexperienced team tonight.

Pastner is 28-14 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of the Yellow Jackets.  Georgia Tech beat Georgia State 72-62 on a neutral last year.  That was a bad GT team and a good Georgia State team, too.  No question the Yellow Jackets are the better team this season with the Panthers having to replace their entire starting 5.  Roll with Georgia Tech Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Grand Canyon +2.5

Grand Canyon looks like the best team in the underrated Western Athletic Conference this season.  Bryce Drew replaced Dan Majerle ahead of the 2020-21 season and immediately led the Antelopes to their first-ever NCAA Tournament.  They went 23-8 last year in his third season with the program.

Drew welcomes back three starters this season including Jovan Blacksher (15.8 PPG, 124 assists last season).  The Antelopes are off to a 2-0 start this season beating Montana State 60-54 and SD Christian 101-50.  Nevada should not be favored here.  They are coming off an 84-71 win over Utah Tech.  

The Wolf Pack went 13-18 last season and Steve Alford is on the hot seat, which seams to happen everywhere he goes.  It won't get any better for the Wolf Pack this season considering they lose four starters that averaged double digits scoring last season in Sherfield (19.1 PPG), Cambridge (16.2 PPG), Washington (10.5 PPG) and Bramah (10.8 PPG).

Grand Canyon is 32-17 ATS in its last 49 games overall.  Nevada is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games following a win.  The Wolf Pack are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games after playing a game as a home favorite.  Take Grand Canyon Saturday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Sacramento Kings -3.5

The Sacramento Kings are fully healthy now and playing up to their potential.  They have gone 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their two losses coming by 3 points at Golden State and by 3 points at Miami.  They also upset Miami and Cleveland during this stretch.

Look for the Kings to roll the Los Angeles Lakers, who are one of the worst teams in the NBA even with a healthy LeBron James.  They Lakers are 2-9 SU & 2-9 ATS this season.  Now they will be without James tonight.  They have no chance of even keeping this competitive as seven of their nine losses have come by 9 points or more. 

The Kings are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.  Sacramento is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Kings are 5-0 ATS in their last five games playing on one days' rest.  The Lakers are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Los Angeles is 0-6 ATS in its last six games following a loss by more than 10 points.  Roll with the Kings Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Cavs/Warriors OVER 228

Two elite offensive teams and two poor defensive teams square off tonight when the Golden State Warriors host the Cleveland Cavaliers.  This one has all the makings of a shootout tonight folks.

Golden State ranks 1st in the NBA in pace this season and will control the tempo playing at home.  The Warriors are having no problems on offense this season ranking 12th in offensive efficiency.  The Cavaliers have been great in that area which is a big reason for their improvement this season.  They are 3rd in offensive efficiency and scoring 116.6 points per game.

The reason the Warriors are struggling so much is because they have taken a big step back defensively this season.  They rank 25th in defensive efficiency.  We've seen at least 229 combined points in nine of Golden State's 11 games this season.  They are scoring 117.3 points per game and allowing 120.6 points per game.

The OVER is 18-7-1 in Cavaliers last 26 road games.  The OVER is 4-1 in Warriors last five home games.  The OVER is 7-3-1 in Warriors last 11 games overall.  Take the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on San Antonio Spurs PK

The Milwaukee Bucks are grossly overvalued right now due to their 10-1 start.  It's time to 'sell high' on them, especially after they were just without all their best players and beat the Thunder 136-132 in double-OT.  They won't be able to beat the Spurs without all their best players tonight.

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Spurs, who have lost five consecutive games but were competitive in three of the losses by 7 points or fewer.  The blowout losses were due to injuries.  But the Spurs are fully healthy now with the exception of Zach Collins.

The Spurs won't take the Bucks lightly tonight due to this five-game losing streak.  That's key because Milwaukee cannot beat them unless San Antonio has a letdown.  The Bucks are without their three best players in Giannis (31.8 PPG, 12.2 RPG), Holiday (19.6 PPG, 7.9 APG) and Middleton.

Plays on any team (San Antonio) - off a close loss by 3 points or less to a division opponent against a team after a road game where both teams scored 100 points or more are 34-9 (79.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Spurs are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games playing on one days' rest.  San Antonio is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet the Spurs Friday.

15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Pennsylvania +12.5

Penn is expected to be the best team in the Ivy League this season.  It's easy to see why as they returned four starters including likely Ivy League Player of the Year Jordan Dingle (20.8 PPG), who scored at least 30 points six times last season.  Max Martz (10.0 PPG, 5.0 RPG) and Jonah Charles (6.7 PPG) are sharp shooters.  Michael Moshkovitz (5.1 PPG, 4.7 RPG) is a do-it-all type.

But Penn was blown out 78-50 at Iona as 6-point underdogs in the opener.  I think that result has them catching too many points tonight against Missouri.  That's an Iona team that is one of the best mid-majors in the country coached by Rick Pitino.  And they simply had an off night shooting 32.7%.

Look for the Quakers to come back and give Missouri a run for its money tonight.  Missouri only beat South Indiana 97-91 as 19.5-point favorites in the opener, a way more concerning result than Penn.  This is a clear rebuilding year for the Tigers coming off a 12-21 season and under a first-year head coach in Dennis Gates from Cleveland State.  The Tigers lost five players that averaged at least 6.6 PPG last season and return only one starter.

Penn is 50-30 ATS in its last 80 road games following a road loss.  Steve Donahue is 15-6 ATS in road games off a road loss as the coach of Penn.  Donahue is 15-3 ATS in road games after a game where his team made 33% of their shots or worse as a head coach.  Donahue is 45-22 ATS as a road dog of 10 points or more as a head coach.  Take Penn Friday.

15* CBB Friday Night Line Mistake on Fordham +19.5

The Fordham Rams are in a good position early in the season with all of their veteran experience returning.  They bring back four starters from a team that went 16-16 last year.  Kyle Neptune leaves for Villanova which is a job he earned, but Keith Urgo was Neptune's right-handed man and is ready for the job with 20 years of coaching experience at Penn State, Villanova and Fordham.

Four players who started at least 17 games last season are back, led by one of the A-10's best guards in Darius Quisenberry (16.2 PPG).  I like Georgia Tech transfer Khalid Moore and 6-8 freshman Elijah Gray.  PG Will Richardson will be a key contributor right away.

The Rams are off and running with an 88-74 win over Dartmouth as 7-point favorites in their opener.  Quisenberry led the way with 20 points while Moore had 18.  Third-year starter Kyle Rose had 11 points and JC import Antrell Charlton scored 16 points.

While I like this Fordham team and think they are undervalued to start the season, this play is more of a fade of Arkansas.  They lost all five starters from last season including four double-digit scorers.  I think they will struggle in the early going despite Eric Musselman bringing in some great talent to replace them.  

The Razorbacks only beat North Dakota State 76-58 as 22.5-point favorites in their opener.  That's a NDSU team that lost four starters and three double-digit scorers from last season.  I would make Fordham a substantial favorite over NDSU, so I have to take the 19.5 points with the Rams here.  The Rams are 17-7-1 ATS in their last 25 games overall.  Roll with Fordham Friday.

20* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Oakland -6.5

Oakland went 20-12 last season and brought back three starters from that team including G Jalen Moore (15.5 PPG, 4.3 RPG) and Trey Townsend (13.3 PPG, 5.6 RPG).  Head coach Greg Kampe also brought in an impressive haul of transfers, including Rocket Watts (Michigan State & Miss State), Lorne Bowman (Wisconsin) and Keaton Hervey (Missouri State).

The Golden Grizzlies are off and running this season with a 92-27 win over Defiance, which wasn't too 'defiant' in this one.  Now they should roll Bowling Green, which narrowly escaped with a 62-58 home win over Air Force in their opener.

Bowling Green looks like one of the worst teams in the MAC this season.  The Falcons went 13-18 last season including 6-14 in MAC play.  They don't return a single double-digit scorer and lose their three best players in Plowden (15.7 PPG, 6.8 RPG), Reece (11.2 PPG, 5.1 RPG) and Diggs (9.5 PPG, 66 3-pointers).  There are seven newcomers and I expect chemistry to be an issue early for this team.

The Falcons are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.  Bowling Green is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games overall.  Roll with Oakland Friday.

20* CBB Friday Night BLOWOUT on Iona -2.5

Rick Pitino is turning this Iona program into a monster. The Gaels went 25-8 last season including 17-3 in the MAAC.  They returned three starters from that team including MAAC Player of the Year candidate Nelly Junior Joseph (13.0 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 69 blocks).

The Gaels are off and running this season with an impressive 78-50 home win as only 6-point favorites against what was expected to be a very good Penn team.  The three returning starters in Joseph, Slazinski and JeanLouis combined for 41 points.  Newcomer Daniss Jenkins led the way with 19 points, 6 rebounds and 5 assists and could prove to be one of the best guards in the conference when it's all said and done.

Hofstra is getting respect tonight due to upsetting Princeton 83-77 as a 2-point underdog in the opener.  But that is keeping this line lower than it should be, and it's providing us with some line value to pull the trigger on Iona.  Hofstra returned its best player, but lost three starters in Ray (13.4 PPG), Cooks (12.2 PPG) and Ayiola (7.1 PPG, 7.1 RPG).  One guy cannot beat this balanced Iona team.

Iona is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 non-conference games.  Hofstra is 0-9 ATS in its last nine home games.  Bet Iona Friday.

15* NBA Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia 76ers +1

Teams tend to rally when they lose a star player.  That has been the case with the Brooklyn Nets as they are playing their best basketball of the season without Kyrie Irving.  And it looks to be the case with the Philadelphia 76ers as well after finding out they'll be without James Harden until December.

The 76ers promptly upset the Phoenix Suns 100-88 last time out at home.  They are rested and ready to go tonight as they will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days tonight.  They had two days off prior to the Phoenix game on Monday, and now have had two days off heading into this showdown with Atlanta.

That's a huge advantage for the 76ers when you consider the Hawks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after a 119-125 home loss to the Utah Jazz last night.  That game will have taken a lot out of them as it was an absolute shootout played at a high pace.  They won't have much left in the tank for the 76ers tonight.

Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series.  The road team is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Hawks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games playing on zero rest.  Take the 76ers Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on UMass -2

The UMass Minutemen made one of the best hires of the offseason grabbing Frank Martin from South Carolina.  He took the Gamecocks to the Final Four in 2017.  He is great at turning around programs and loves a challenge.

But the cupboard isn't bare for Martin.  He welcomes back one of the best point guards in the Atlantic 10 in Noah Fernandes (14.9 PPG) and shooter T.J. Weeks Jr. (9.6 PPG, 4.8 RPG) in the backcourt.  Fernandes had a team-high 147 assists last season while Weeks shot 36.9% from 3-point range.

Martin put his reputation as a talented recruiter and evaluator of talent to use.  He nabbed Louisville transfer Matt Cross and UConn transfer Rahsool Diggins, who were both Top 100 recruits out of high school.  He also brought in a couple big men with him from South Carolina in Ta'Quan Woodley and Wildens Leveque.  Dyondre Domingquez is a key returnee that should see more action.

The Minutemen are off to a great start to the Martin era with a 94-67 win as 17-point home favorites over Central Connecticut State.  I think Towson is getting too much love early in the season after going 25-9 last year and beating up on a bad CAA Conference.  They only beat Albany 67-62 as 16.5-point home favorites in their opener.

The Minutemen are 7-0 ATS in their last seven non-conference home games.  UMass is 28-13-2 ATS in its last 43 home games overall.  Roll with UMass Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento Kings +5.5

I love betting against teams that just had an extending winning streak snapped.  There always seems to be a hangover effect and they just aren't as motivated as they were to try and keep the winning streak alive.  That will be the case for the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight.

The Cavaliers are in a massive hangover spot here after having their 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS streak come to an end after blowing a late 8-point lead to the Clippers in a 117-119 loss on Monday.  That was a double-header in Los Angeles after beating the Lakers the night before.  They won't be nearly as motivated to beat the Kings now tonight after their winning streak was snapped.

Now they will be playing their 4th consecutive road game and their 3rd road game in 4 days against a Sacramento Kings team on the improve.  The Kings are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their two losses coming by 3 points at Miami and by 3 points at Golden State.  I think they're showing tremendous value catching 5.5 points at home against the Cavaliers tonight.

Cleveland is 17-33 ATS in its last 50 games following a road loss.  The Kings are 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The Cavaliers are 14-37-2 ATS in their last 53 games following an ATS loss.

Plays on any team (Sacramento) - off a close loss by 3 points or less to a division opponent against a team that is off a road game where both teams scored 100 points or more are 33-9 (78.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Kings Wednesday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Suns/Timberwolves UNDER 226

The Phoenix Suns are a dead nuts UNDER team right now.  They rank 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency allowing 103.3 points per 100 possessions.  Phoenix ranks 28th in pace, averaging just 94.3 possessions per game.  They are even more of an UNDER team now without Cam Johnson (13.0 PPG) who is their best shooter.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are also a dead nuts UNDER team.  The addition of Rudy Gobert has indeed made them a better defensive team, which is what they wanted, but it has hurt them offensively.  The Timberwolves rank just 22nd in offensive efficiency but 5th in defensive efficiency.

These teams just met on November 1st with the Suns winning 116-107 for 223 combined points.  Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games, and that will be the case here in the rematch just over a week later.

The UNDER is 6-0 in Suns last six road games.  The UNDER is 35-15-1 in Suns last 51 games following a loss.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Timberwolves last six games overall.  Phoenix is 13-1 UNDER in its last 14 games following a road loss.  Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bucks/Thunder UNDER 219.5

The Milwaukee Bucks have been relying on defense in the early going with injuries to Khris Middleton, Pat Connaughton and Joe Ingles as all three have yet to play.  Now they are without PG Jrue Holiday, which will make them even more of an UNDER team until he returns.

But the Bucks have gotten to 9-1 this season thanks to ranking 1st in the NBA in defensive efficiency at 99.2 points allowed per 100 possessions.  They rank just 16th in pace at 97.4 possessions per game.  They are 20th in offensive efficiency.   To no surprise, the UNDER is 7-3 in their 10 games this season.

Oklahoma City ranks just 26th in offensive efficiency but 5th in defensive efficiency, which has allowed them to at least be competitive.  So they are a dead nuts UNDER team as well.  And these teams just met on November 5th with Milwaukee winning 108-94 for 202 combined points.  It should be more of the same here just four days later, especially considering familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.

The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings.  The UNDER is 17-5 in Bucks last 22 games overall.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Thunder last four games following a loss.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Rockets/Raptors OVER 223.5

The Houston Rockets are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 7th in pace at 99.1 possessions per game.  They rank 27th in defensive efficiency, allowing 113.7 points per 100 possessions.  So this total of 223.5 is pretty low for a game involving the Rockets.

The Raptors have some good chemistry on offense as they rank 10th in offensive efficiency.  They are scoring 111.9 points per game this season, while the Rockets are scoring 110.4 points per game.  Houston allows 117.9 points per game and Toronto should get to 120 here to lead the way to cashing this OVER.

The OVER is 3-1 in the last four meetings.  The Rockets and Raptors have combined for at least 228 points in four of the last five meetings with combined scores of 232, 259, 216, 233 and 228 points in the last five meetings, respectively.  Both meetings last season sailed OVER the total.

The OVER is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings.  The OVER is 6-1 in Raptors last seven games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Rockets are coming off 246 combined points with Minnesota followed by 261 combined points with Orlando in their last two games.

Plays on the OVER on road teams with a total of 210 or higher (Houston) - an average offensive team (108-114 PPG) against a good defensive team (104-108 PPG), after a combined score of 255 points or more are 31-9 (77.5%) since 1996.  Roll with the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Knicks/Nets ESPN ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 223.5

The Brooklyn Nets are a dead nuts UNDER team without Kyrie Irving.  He's one of the best scorers in the NBA and also arguably the single-worst defender.  The proof is in the pudding for the Nets when he has been out due to suspension the past three games.

Indeed, the Nets combined for 214 points with the Wizards, 192 points with the Hornets and 190 points with the Mavericks in their last three games without him.  In fact, the UNDER is 5-0 in Nets last five games overall.  It should be more of the same here against the New York Knicks.

Tom Thibodeau has the Knicks playing defense again this season.  New York ranks 15th in defensive efficiency but still struggles to score on offense.  This has been a very low-scoring series with the Knicks and Nets combining for 222 or fewer points in four consecutive meetings.

The UNDER is 5-0 in Knicks last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  The UNDER is 10-1 in Nets last 11 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Nuggets/Pacers Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on OVER 235.5

The Indiana Pacers play at the 6th-fastest pace in the NBA this season.  They will control the tempo playing at home.  They are dream OVER team because they play no defense, ranking 28th in defensive efficiency allowing 114.3 points per 100 possessions.

The Nuggets will oblige in a shootout.  They rank 2nd in the NBA in offensive efficiency, scoring 113.8 points per 100 possessions.  They rank just 20th in defensive efficiency, allowing 111.1 points per 100 possessions.  The Pacers are 13th in offensive efficiency scoring 110.2 points per 100 possessions and have been even more efficient since Myles Turner returned from injury.

The Pacers have allowed at least 114 points in nine of their 10 games this season.  They have scored at least 124 points in five of their 10 games.  The Nuggets have scored at least 110 points in nine consecutive games.  These teams combined for 243 points in their final meeting last season, and that was with Denver not having Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. healthy.

The OVER is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings, including 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Indiana.  The OVER is 7-1 in Nuggets last eight games following an ATS loss.  The OVER is 35-16 in Pacers last 51 home games.  Indiana is 20-6 OVER in its last 26 home games with a total of 230 or higher.  Take the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* CBB Monday Late-Night BAILOUT on Seattle -3

Seattle went 23-9 in Chris Victor's first season with the team.  Now he returns four starters as the Redhawks are absolutely loaded.  That includes Cameron Tyson (14.7 PPG, 5.2 RPG) and Riley Grigsby (12.8 PPG, 3.6 RPG).  They also return three reserves that scored at least 4.2 PPG last year.

UC-San Diego looks like the worst team in the Big West this season.  They went 13-16 last year and now lose leading scorer Toni Rocak (15.2 PPG, 6.5 RPG) along with Jake Killingsworth (7.2 PPG, 4.0 RPG).

Seattle beat UC-San Diego 73-51 as 4-point home favorites last season.  I think we are getting a discount on them as 3-point road favorites this season considering they return better talent and experience than UC-San Diego.  Bet Seattle Monday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on San Antonio Spurs +9

I love the spot for the San Antonio Spurs tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 101-126 loss in Denver on Saturday in which the Nuggets shot 60.9% including 15-of-29 (51.7%) from 3-point range.  Their shooting of late is unsustainable.

It's also a 'buy low' spot on the Spurs after going 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  They have been battling through injuries during this stretch but are much healthier for this game, which is going to make a big difference for them.

Plays on any team (San Antonio) - that is allowing a 50% shooting percentage or higher on the season, averaging 48 or fewer rebounds per game are 27-6 (81.8%) ATS since 1996.  San Antonio is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games when playing on one days' rest.

Denver is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games following two consecutive wins by 10 or more points.  It's time to 'sell high' on the Nuggets tonight.  Roll with the Spurs Monday.

15* UTEP/Texas CBB ANNIHILATOR on Texas -22

Texas opens the season ranked No. 12 in the country and for good reason.  Chris Beard is one of the best head coaches in the country and went 22-12 in his first season in Texas.  The Longhorns should be even better this season, which is saying something considering they were one of only 10 games to rank in the Top 30 in KenPom's offensive and defensive efficiency rankings last season.

The Longhorns return Marcus Carr (11.4 PPG), Timmy Allen (12.1 PPG, 6.4 RPG) and CHristian Bishop (7.0 PPG, 5.6 RPG) as three starters.  They bring ing Iowa State transfer Tyrese Hunters (11.0 PPG) who scored in double figures 20 times last season.  Sir-Jabari Rice was a double-figure scorer three consecutive years at New Mexico State.  Freshman Dillon Mitchell was the No. 5 ranked overall player in the 2022 class.

UTEP went 20-14 last season but loses four starters from that team.  Their lone returning starters is Jamari Sibley (5.3 PPG, 4.0 RPG).  They lose their two best players by far Jamal Bieniemy (14.7 PPG, 3.5 RPG), Souley Boum (19.8 PPG, 4.5 RPG).  This looks like a rebuilding years in El Paso.  Roll with Texas Monday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Raptors/Bulls UNDER 222

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  Well, the Bulls and Raptors just played yesterday in Toronto with the Raptors winning 113-104 for just 217 combined points.  Now they will play a day later, this time in Chicago.  This 222-point total had been set too high given the situation that favors the UNDER.

The Raptors rank 28th in the NBA in pace this season.  The Bulls rank 23rd in pace.  This total has been set too high based on how these teams like to play in the half court and not get out and run.  It is especially too high given the situation.  The Bulls are 5th in defensive efficiency while the Raptors are 8th as well.

The has been an UNDER series as well.  The Raptors and Bulls have combined for 219 or fewer points in five of their last six meetings.  The UNDER is 6-0 in the last six meetings in Chicago.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Bulls last seven Monday games.  Take the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* Monday NBA Total DOMINATOR on Blazers/Heat UNDER 217

Injuries are going to help us cash this UNDER between the Blazers and Heat.  The Blazers are expected to be without their two leading scorers tonight in Damian Lillard (31.0 PPG) and Anfernee Simons (22.0 PPG).  We saw how well that went last time out when they were held to 82 points by the Suns.

The Heat could be without Tyler Herro (19.6 PPG), who is questionable.  Jimmy Butler (21.5 PPG) will return tonight but is still hobbled.  The Heat managed just 99 points last time out against the Indiana Pacers, which is really poor considering Indiana plays at a fast pace and is one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA.

Portland ranks 11th in the NBA in defensive efficiency while Miami ranks 13th.  Both teams rank in the middle of the pack in pace with the Blazers 17th and the Heat 15th.  The Blazers will be looking to slow it down even more without Lillard and Simons.

These teams are also familiar with one another having played on October 26th with 217 combined points in the game Lillard got hurt.  Portland is 25-10 UNDER in its last 35 games when revenging a same-season loss.  The UNDER is 8-0 in Blazers last eight road games.  The UNDER is 17-5 in Blazers last 22 games overall.  The UNDER is 5-2 in Heat last seven games overall.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* Suns/76ers NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 217

Injuries are going to help us cash this UNDER tonight.  Phoenix will be without Cam Johnson (13.0 PPG) and could be without Cameron Payne (8.9 PPG) again.  Philadelphia will be without James Harden (22.0 PPG, 10.0 APG) until December.

These teams both play a style that favors the UNDER as well.  The Suns rank 18th in pace while the 76ers rank 21st.  The Suns are 3rd in defensive efficiency as well.  The 76ers are a much better team defensively without Harden.  They will also be a much slower team to try and run their offense through Embiid now without Harden.

The UNDER is 5-0 in Suns last five road games.  The UNDER is 7-0 in 76ers last seven games following a loss.  The UNDER is 39-19 in 76ers last 58 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The UNDER is 5-1 in 76ers last six home games.  Take the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New Orleans Pelicans -5

The New Orleans Pelicans have just one loss this season when Williamson, Ingram, McCollum and Valanciunas have been healthy at the same time.  That came in overtime on the road at Atlanta on the 2nd of a back-to-back.  They have been absolutely dominant otherwise.

Now I expect the Pelicans to make easy work of the Indiana Pacers, who play zero defense and won't have any answers for the offensive firepower of the Pelicans, who also play defense.  The Pacers rank 28th in defensive efficiency while the Pelicans rank 9th.  The Pelicans rank 8th in offensive efficiency while the Pacers rank 18th.

Plays against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Indiana) -0 off a close home win by 3 points or less in November games are 32-5 (86.5%) ATS since 1996.  The Pelicans are 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  The Pacers are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games playing on two days' rest.  Bet the Pelicans Monday.

20* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Fordham -6

The Fordham Rams are in a good position early in the season with all of their veteran experience returning.  They bring back four starters from a team that went 16-16 last year.  Kyle Neptune leaves for Villanova which is a job he earned, but Keith Urgo was Neptune's right-handed man and is ready for the job with 20 years of coaching experience at Penn State, Villanova and Fordham.

Four players who started at least 17 games last season are back, led by one of the A-10's best guards in Darius Quisenberry (16.2 PPG).  I like Georgia Tech transfer Khalid Moore and 6-8 freshman Elijah Gray.  PG Will Richardson and SG Noah Best will also be key contributors right away.

I'll gladly fade Dartmouth, which looks like the worst team in the Ivy League.  Dartmouth went 9-16 last season and loses four starters from that team, including Brandan Barry (14.6 PPG, 41.1% 3-pointers) and Aaryn Rai (12.3 PPG, 7.2 RPG).  This is clearly a rebuilding year for head coach David McLaughlin, who is 46-92 in his six seasons at Dartmouth.  The Rams are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 home games.  Take Fordham Monday.

15* CBB Monday UPSET SHOCKER on Kent State ML +100

The Kent State Golden Flashes look like one of the top teams in the MAC this season.  They went 23-11 last season and return four starters from that team.  That includes Sincere Carry (17.9 PPG, 4.8 APG) and Malique Jacobs (12.8 PPG, 7.5 RPG).  They also return their top reserves in Giovanni Santiago (8.6 PPG).

Northern Kentucky also has a decent outlook after going 20-12 last year and returning four starters as well.  But I just think Kent State is the better team and the wrong team is favored.  Kent State won the lone meeting two years ago 92-73 at home.

Common opponents last season also show the Golden Flashes were the better team.  They went 3-0 and outscored opponents by 15.0 points per game, while Northern Kentucky went 2-2 against those same three games and only outscored them by 1.3 points per game.  Kent State beat Eastern Michigan by 19 and 9 and Detroit by 17.  Northern Kentucky only beat Eastern Michigan by 1, and actually lost twice to Detroit last season by 8 and 6 points.  Bet Kent State on the Money Line Monday.

15* CBB Monday Night BLOWOUT on Tennessee -35.5

The Tennessee Vols are ranked No. 11 in the country to start the season and for good reason.  They went 27-8 last season and return four starters from that team in Santiago Vescovi (13.3 PPG), Josiah-Jordan James (10.3 PPG, 6.0 RPG), Ollvier Nkamhoua (8.6 PPG, 5.8 RPG) and Uros Plavsic (4.2 PPG, 4.0 RPG), plus Zakai Diegler (8.8 PPG).

The Vols add in the 12th-ranked recruit in the 2022 class in Julian Phillips, a top-100 prospect in B.J. Edwards, a two-time first-team All-MVC performer in Tyreke Key from Indiana State.  The Vols dominated the non-conference last season and I expect them to easily cover this 35.5-point spread in the opener.

Tennessee Tech went 11-21 last season and looks like one of the worst teams in the Ohio Valley this season.  They lost all five starters from that team who all scored at least 7.8 PPG.  Their leading returning scorer averaged 7.5 PPG.  They had a former student manager that was pressed into action last season.  The Volunteers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 non-conference home games.  Take Tennessee Monday.

15* Jazz/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah +3.5

The Utah Jazz have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA to start the season.  Everyone thought they were tanking with the Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell trades.  But they had run their course, and it was time for some new faces.  The Jazz got a better haul back in those trades than they are getting credit for.

That has proven to be the case with a 7-3 SU & 7-3 ATS start this season with seven outright victories as underdogs.  Newcomers Markkanen (22.2 PPG), Sexton (13.6 PPG), Olynyk (12.7 PPG), Beasley (10.7 PPG), Vanderbilt (9.0 PPG) and Horton-Tucker (7.0 PPG) are gelling nicely with holdovers Clarkson (17.4 PPG) and Conley (11.9 PPG, 7.4 APG).

The Los Angeles Clippers are one of the most disappointing teams in the NBA this season.  They are 5-4 SU & 3-6 ATS with their five wins coming against the Rockets (twice), Spurs, Kings and Lakers.  Four of those five wins came down to the wire.  The four losses all came by 8 points or more and two came to the Thunder.  

So they have played one of the easiest schedules in the NBA, which makes their poor start even more concerning. The Clippers are without Kawhi Leonard and Luke Kennard tonight as well.  They just aren't that good without Leonard, their best player.  Wrong team favored here.  Take the Jazz Sunday.

15* Blazers/Suns NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 216.5

I love this spot for an UNDER bet.  Portland and Phoenix just played last night with the Blazers pulling the 108-106 upset for 114 combined points.  Now the books have set the total at 216.5 points for the rematch.  Familiarity favors defense and UNDERS, and both teams are tired so they won't be looking to push the tempo.

These teams don't like pushing the tempo, anyway.  Phoenix ranks 26th in the NBA in pace while Portland ranks 23rd.  Both teams have also been good defensively this season as the Suns rank 5th in defensive efficiency while the Blazers rank 12th.

Injuries to both teams will also help aid us in cashing this UNDER.  Portland is already without Damian Lillard (31.0 PPG) and could be without Anfernee Simons (22.0 PPG) tonight, their two best players and franchise pieces.  Phoenix could be without both Cam Johnson (13.0 PPG) and Cameron Payne (8.9 PPG), two key weapons for them on offense.  All three of those guys are questionable.

The UNDER is 7-0 in Blazers last seven road games.  The UNDER is 16-5 in Blazers last 21 games overall.  The UNDER is 34-16-1 in Suns last 51 games following a loss.  The UNDER is 3-0-1 in the last four meetings.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Oklahoma City Thunder +8

It's time to 'sell high' on the Milwaukee Bucks.  They are the last undefeated team in the NBA at not only 8-0 SU, but 7-1 ATS.  There has been a discount on the Bucks this season because they are missing three key players, which is part of the reason for their ATS success.  But there is no discount tonight.

You're asked to lay 8 points on a Bucks team that is in the worst spot they have been all season.  The Bucks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days, which is about as tough a spot as there is in the NBA.  Being short-handed adds to the difficult spot as this is a very tired team right now.

The Thunder are 4-4 SU & 6-2 ATS this season with all four losses coming by 12 points or fewer, so they have been competitive in every game.  They have also faced a much more difficult schedule than the Bucks have so they are battle-tested.  They have outright upset wins over the Clippers (twice) and the Mavericks.  They also took the Nuggets to the wire twice and the Timberwolves to the wire twice.

Oklahoma City is 14-1 ATS in its last 15 road games vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Thunder are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 road games overall.  They are consistently catching too many points on the road over the past couple seasons, and that is the case again tonight given the terrible rest spot for the Bucks.  Take the Thunder Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on New Orleans Pelicans ML +110

Brandon Ingram (23.0 PPG), Zion Williamson (21.7 PPG), C.J. McCollum (20.6 PPG), Jonas Valanciunas (14.6 PPG) and Trey Murphy III (14.0 PPG) is one of the best starting lineups in the NBA.  When these five have all been healthy at the same time this season, the Pelicans have dominated.  I'll gladly back them as underdogs to the Atlanta Hawks tonight to pull the upset.

The Hawks are 5-3 but have taken advantage of a very easy schedule.  Their five wins have come against Houston, Orlando, Detroit (twice) and New York.  They lost by 17 to Charlotte, by 8 at Milwaukee and by 30 at Toronto.  They are without Bogdan Bogdanovic and Trey Young is questionable tonight with an eye abrasion.  Whether he plays or not, the Pelicans are the better team in this game.

The Hawks are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following an ATS win.  Atlanta is 8-17 ATS in its last 25 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Atlanta is 10-23 ATS in its last 33 games following an upset win as an underdog.  Bet the Pelicans on the Money Line Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Toronto Raptors +3.5

The Toronto Raptors are flying under the radar this season.  They didn't make any offseason moves of note and kept their core together.  That core is better than it gets credit for, and the Raptors have a lot of chemistry to start the season as a result.

They have opened 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS with two of their losses coming by 3 and 4 points.  Their lone blowout loss came to Philadelphia after beating the 76ers two days prior, which is understandable in that flat spot.  The Raptors have been without Fred VanVleet in their last two games, and it hasn't matter as they crushed Atlanta 139-109 and San Antonio 143-100.  

Now the Raptors are rested and ready to go playing just their 3rd game in 7 days and may get VanVleet back tonight.  They take on a Mavericks team that has been overvalued of late going 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  They were upset by the Thunder as 10.5-point home favorites, needed a late run to beat the Magic by 9 as 9.5-point home favorites and needed a late run to beat the Jazz by 3 as 6.5-point home favorites.  If those three teams are hanging around with them, I like Toronto's chances of winning this game outright.

The Raptors are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Mavericks.  They have great length to be able to defend Luka Doncic about as well as anyone in the NBA can.  Toronto is 35-17 ATS in its last 52 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Mavericks are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win.  Toronto is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 road games following two or more consecutive wins.  Take the Raptors Friday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -4

The New Orleans Pelicans get Brandon Ingram back from a concussion tonight and are back to full strength.  Zion Williams missed a couple games earlier this season.  When Ingram (22.0 PPG), Williamson (22.8 PPG), McCollum (20.7 PPG) and Valanciunas (15.6 PPG) are on the floor at the same time, this Pelicans team is a title contender.

Now they will want to prove that tonight by taking down the defending champion Golden State Warriors.  They are in a great spot to do it as the Pelicans had yesterday off and will be playing just their 4th game in 10 days.  They are not only healthy, but rested and ready to go tonight.

The same cannot be said for the Warriors, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days after a 129-130 upset loss in Orlando last night.  The Warriors are now 3-6 SU & 2-7 ATS this season and the most disappointing team in the NBA.  They have simply quit playing defense this season and are in the midst of a championship hangover that won't end tonight given the terrible spot for them.  The Warriors are allowing 122.2 points per game and 47.4% shooting.

The Pelicans are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU loss.  New Orleans is also 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games following an ATS loss.  Roll with the Pelicans Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Washington Wizards -3

The Washington Wizards are fully healthy right now and starting to form some chemistry between Beal, Porzingis, Kuzma, Morris and Barton.  They are coming off a 121-111 road win at Philadelphia and I like their chances of crushing the Brooklyn Nets tonight.

Speaking of chemistry, the Nets have none of it.  Brooklyn is 2-6 SU & 1-7 ATS to start the season with the two wins coming at home over the Pacers by 7 and the Raptors by 4.  Five of their six losses have come by 9 points or more so they have rarely even been competitive.

It has gotten worse before it's going to get better.  The Nets fired head coach Steve Nash, and Durant was stunned by the move.  Now Kyrie Irving has been suspended for doing Irving things.  And Ben Simmons, who was supposed to be their savior, is out with a knee injury.  I don't see any way the Nets can even be competitive tonight with Durant and a bunch of scrubs around him.

The Nets are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 games overall.  Washington is 16-5-1 ATS in its last 22 home meetings with Brooklyn.  The Nets are 3-7-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings overall.  Washington should be a bigger home favorite over the hapless Nets tonight.  Bet the Wizards Friday.