15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Nets/Cavs UNDER 226.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers are highly motivated for a win tonight.  They have dropped six of their last eight games overall.  I don't think there's value backing them as 15-point favorites here, but I do see a ton of value in the UNDER.

The reason for the Cavs' struggles lately has been defense as they have allowed at least 100 points in 11 straight games.  I think their motivation will shine through on that end of the court more than anything moving forward as they know that defense has cost them.

This will be the 3rd meeting between these teams already this season.  They combined for 218 and 224 points in their first two meetings, staying UNDER this 226.5-point total both times.  And I think that will be the case for a 3rd straight meeting here.

The Cavs and Nets have combined for 224 or fewer points in 17 straight meetings.  That makes for a perfect 17-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set of 226.5.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -4

The Sacramento Kings are in a prime letdown spot here tonight.  They are coming off a huge overtime road win over the defending champion Cleveland Cavaliers.  I don't expect them to show up at all here tonight against the Indiana Pacers off such a big win.

This is also a tough spot for the Kings, who will be playing their 5th straight road game in a span of 8 days.  I look for them to start wearing down here soon, and it starts with this game tonight against the Indiana Pacers.

I realize the Pacers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back off their 109-103 win in Minnesota last night.  However, they had two days off prior to that game, so they will be fresher than most teams in a back-to-back situation.

Plays against any team (SACRAMENTO) - off two or more consecutive upset wins as a road underdog, tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days are 31-8 (79.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Pacers Friday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Michigan -3.5

The Michigan Wolverines are 11-2 at home this season.  I really like them laying this short price to the Indiana Hoosiers Thursday night as I expect a big effort out of them.  They are still looking for a signature win in conference play, and this would be it.

Indiana is just 1-5 ATS in all games away from home this year.  They are 1-2 straight up in true road games with their only victory coming 78-75 at Penn State as 3-point favorites.  This is a team that lost earlier this season on the road to Fort Wayne.

Indiana is 3-11 ATS in road games off a home win over the last two seasons.  The Hoosiers are 2-13 ATS in road games after scoring 80 points or more over the last two years.  The Wolverines are 50-28 ATS in their last 78 January home games.  The Hoosiers are 16-35-1 ATS in their last 52 games following a ATS win.  The Wolverines are 28-11-1 ATS in their last 40 Thursday games.  Bet Michigan Thursday.

15* Mavs/Thunder TNT No-Brainer on Dallas +8

The Dallas Mavericks are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall, yet they continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers here as 8-point road underdogs to the Oklahoma City Thunder.

The Mavericks will be playing with a chip on their shoulder as this will be the first time they'll have a chance to avenge their playoff series loss to the Thunder in the opening round last year.  And while the Mavs will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back here, they had two days off prior to their home win over the Knicks on Wednesday.

The Thunder don't have the same luxury.  They'll be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days here.  Not only that, but this is an awful spot for the Thunder as it will be their first game back home from a 6-game road trip.  Plus, they have a huge game against the defending champion Cavaliers on deck and could be looking ahead.

The Mavs are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Dallas is 21-8-1 ATS in its last 30 trips to Oklahoma City.  The road team si 39-17-2 ATS in the last 58 meetings.  Roll with the Mavericks Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Rice -3

The Rice Owls are 8-3 at home this season.  Two of their home losses came against two of the best teams in Conference USA in UAB and Middle Tennessee.  I think they'll handle Old Dominion at home here tonight.

Old Dominion is not playing well coming in, going 0-3 ATS in its last three games overall. yet it continues getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers.  The Monarchs barely beat lowly Southern Miss by 4 at home as 13-point favorites, lost at home to LA Tech by 12 as 1-point favorites, and lost at Charlotte 72-74 as 2.5-point favorites.

Old Dominion has some injury and suspension issues right now.  Brandan Stith (11.2 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 2.0 bpg), who leads the team in rebounding and blocks, missed the last game with an ankle injury.  He is expected to return for this game, though he won't be near 100%.  Also, Jordan Baker (7.6 ppg), who leads the team with 24 steals, has been suspended for this game.

Plays against any team (OLD DOMINION) - a horrible offensive team (63 PPG or less) against a poor defensive team (74-78 PPG) after 15+ games, after a loss by 6 points or less are 24-4 (85.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  This is also a revenge game for the Owls, who lost 56-62 at Old Dominion in their first meeting this season on January 31st.  Take Rice Thursday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Boston College +16

The Boston College Eagles have been one of the most underrated teams in the ACC.  All they do is cover, yet they get no respect from oddsmakers.  The Eagles are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall while playing some very good teams tough along the way.

That includes upset home wins over Providence (79-67) as 10-point dogs, Syracuse (96-81) as 10.5-point dogs and NC State (74-66) as 5.5-point dogs.  The Eagles have also covered in road losses to Wake Forest (66-79) as 15-point dogs and Duke (82-93) as 26-point dogs.  Then last time out they only lost at home to UNC (82-90) as 19-point dogs.

Miami has been one of the most overrated teams in the ACC.  The Hurricanes are just 4-12 ATS in their 16 lined games this season.  They are coming off a 58-70 road loss at Duke as 10-point dogs and will certainly have a hard time getting up to play Boston College after playing one of the best teams in the country.

The Eagles are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Boston College is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a loss.  The Hurricanes are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 games overall.  Miami is 1-7 ATS in its last eight home games.  The Hurricanes are 0-6 ATS in their last six games as a home favorite of 13.0 or greater.  Bet Boston College Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +4

This is a great spot to fade the Miami Heat, who are primed for a letdown here tonight.  The Heat won four straight home games coming in, including their 105-102 upset of Golden State on Monday as 11-point dogs.  Off their biggest win of the season, they will now fail to show up at all in Brooklyn tonight.

The betting public is all over the Heat in this game, yet this line has dropped.  That's an indication that the big money is on the Nets, and I believe it is warranted given the awful spot for the Heat here.  After all, Miami is just 6-17 straight up in road games this season and should not be favored on the road against anyone.

Plays on underdogs (BROOKLYN) - after allowing 105 points or more three straight games against opponent after a win by 6 points or less are 49-17 (74.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Miami is 1-11 ATS in road games vs. teams who score 103 or more points per game in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  The Heat are 0-8 ATS in road games after a game where they made 12 or more 3-point shots over the last three years.  Roll with the Nets Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on La Salle -8.5

Look for an inspired effort tonight from the La Salle Explorers off their worst loss of the season, a 52-90 road loss to VCU.  That poor showing came out of nowhere because they had been playing their best basketball of the season coming into that contest.

Indeed, La Salle was 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in its previous five games.  The Explorers had beaten Saint Louis by 21, Duquesne by 7, George Washington by 10 and Davidson by 8 at home.  They had also gone on the road and upset Rhode Island by 12 as 12-point dogs.

Pennsylvania is 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall.  All four losses came by 7 points or more.  They lost by 9 at Princeton as 8.5-point dogs, by 8 at home to Yale as 1-point dogs, by 12 at home to Brown as 9.5-point favorites, and by 7 to St. Joe's on a neutral court as 2.5-point dogs.

La Salle has won eight of its last nine meetings with Pennsylvania with each of the last four victories coming by double-digits.  The Explorers are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine home games.  The Quakers are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. Atlantic 10 opponents.  The Explorers are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games after trailing their last game by 20-plus points at the half.  Take La Salle Wednesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Denver Nuggets -2.5

The Utah Jazz are in a very tough spot tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days.  This schedule appeared to catch up with them last night as they fell at home to the Thunder 95-97 as 5-point favorites.

Now they must go to the altitude to take on the red-hot Denver Nuggets tonight.  The Nuggets have gone 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They have really started to click offensively, averaging 121.2 points per game in their last six contests overall.

The home team has won three straight and seven of the last nine meetings in this series.  The Jazz are 1-9 ATS as a road underdog this season.  Denver is 13-3 ATS off a loss to a division rival this year.  Utah is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games.  The Jazz are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 vs. Western Conference foes.  Bet the Nuggets Tuesday.

15* Kansas/WVU ESPN ANNIHILATOR on West Virginia -3

The West Virginia Mountaineers are coming off back-to-back losses and will be highly motivated to get a win at home tonight against the Kansas Jayhawks on National TV.  Look for a big effort from them, especially after those consecutive losses.

The Jayhawks have played a very weak schedule thus far in Big 12 play, avoiding both Baylor and WVU to this point.  The only three road games in conference play the Jayhawks have faced were a 6-point win at TCU, an 11-point win at Oklahoma and a 4-point win at Iowa State.  They will suffer their first loss of conference season here.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is a perfect 7-0 straight up in the last seven meetings.  West Virginia has won each of its last three home meetings with the Jayhawks, including a 74-63 victory as 1-point dogs last year.  The home team is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.

West Virginia is 6-0 ATS in Tuesday home games over the last three seasons.  Kansas is 2-8 ATS when playing its 2nd game in a week this season.  The Mountaineers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Take West Virginia Tuesday.

15* Purdue/Michigan State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Michigan State +2.5

The Michigan State Spartans will be highly motivated for a win tonight after losing each of their last two games in narrow fashion on the road to Ohio State by 5 and Indiana by 7.  Look for a big effort from Sparty tonight at home to try and get back in the win dolumn.

The Spartans have certainly been taking care of business at home in conference play.  They beat Northwestern by 9 as 2.5-point favorites, Rutgers by 28 as 13-point favorites and Minnesota by 18 as 3.5-point favorites.  They have covered their first three Big Ten home games by a combined 36 points.

Purdue hasn't exactly played great in its first two Big Ten road games.  It only won 76-75 at Ohio State as 3-point favorites, then was upset 78-83 at lowly Iowa as 6-point favorites.  Michigan State has won 12 of its last 15 home meetings with Purdue.

The Spartans have owned this series, going 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The only loss came last season 81-82 in overtime at Purdue.  The Spartans are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games as a home underdog of 0.5-6.5. points.  Roll with Michigan State Tuesday.

15* Oklahoma/Texas ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Texas -2

The Texas Longhorns are playing very well of late and continue flying under the radar.  It hasn't shown up in the win-loss column, but the fact that they are being competitive against the best teams in the Big 12 shows what they are capable of.

The Longhorns are 6-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They only lost by 3 at Kansas State as 8.5-point dogs, beat Oklahoma State 82-79 as 1-point home dogs, only lost by 9 as 9.5-point dogs at Iowa State, only lost by 3 at home to TCU and by 1 at home to West Virginia as 11.5-point dogs, and covered in a 10-point loss at Baylor as 14-point dogs and in a 12-point loss at Kansas as 16-point dogs.

Oklahoma is also playing better right now, but I don't like this spot for the Sooners.  They played a double-overtime game on Saturday against Iowa State and lost 87-92 at home.  Now they must play just two days later and will certainly still be feeling the effects of that grueling defeat.

The home team has won seven of the last nine meetings in this series.  The Sooners are just 1-3 in true road games this season.  Oklahoma is 1-8 ATS in road games versus teams who force 14 or fewer turnovers per game over the last two seasons.  Texas is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 vs. Big 12 opponents.  The Longhorns are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up loss.  The Sooners are 4-9 ATS in the last 13 road meetings.  Roll with Texas Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Milwaukee Bucks +5.5

The Milwaukee Bucks will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost five straight coming in while failing to cover the spread in all five games, which has them undervalued right now.  But four of those five losses came on the road.

One of those losses came at Houston on January 18th just six days ago.  That places the Bucks in revenge mode tonight, only adding to their motivation.  Look for them to play one of their better games of the season, especially after recently holding a team meeting to address their issues.

I don't expect the Grizzlies to be all that motivated here.  They are coming off back-to-back games against Golden State and Memphis, and after having beaten Milwaukee just six days ago, they won't be fully locked in.  The Rockets will also be playing their 5th game in 7 days here, so they are a tired team.

Milwaukee is 17-6 ATS in home games after failing to cover the spread in two more consecutive games over the last three seasons.  The Bucks are 24-13 ATS off two or more consecutive losses over the last two years.  Milwaukee is 82-47 ATS in its last 129 games off four or more consecutive losses.  The Rockets are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet the Bucks Monday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -4.5

The Charlotte Hornets have won three straight games coming in.  All three wins came at home with a 22-point win over Portland, a 35-point win over Toronto and a 7-point win over Brooklyn.  They are now 15-7 at home this season.

The Washington Wizards are starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers due to going a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  But the Wizards are just 5-14 SU & 8-11 ATS on the road this season.  They are giving up 108.4 points per game on 47.1% shooting away from home.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series of late as the home team is 6-0 SU in the last six meetings.  The Hornets are 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take the Hornets Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Timberwolves -4

The Denver Nuggets are in a very tough spot here.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days tonight.  Making matters worse is the fact that they'll be without two starters in Emmanuel Mudiay and Gary Harris.

I think the Nuggets are starting to get a little too much respect from oddsmakers now after going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  But the four wins came against the Pacers, Magic, Lakers and Clippers, who were without Chris Paul and Blake Griffin last night.

The Timberwolves are starting to play up to their potential, but they aren't getting the respect they deserve.  They have gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Now they are laying a short number here despite the fact that they come in on two days' rest and in a much better situation than the Nuggets.

The Timberwolves are 7-0 ATS in home games versus teams who make 46% of their shots or better this season.  Minnesota is 11-0 ATS versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds per game in the second half of the season over the last two years.  Roll with the Timberwolves Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Ohio State -1

The Ohio State Buckeyes are showing great value as only 1-point home favorites over the Northwestern Wildcats Sunday.  I'll gladly back them at this price in a game they essentially just have to win to cover.

The Buckeyes are 10-2 at home this season.  One of the losses was a 75-76 loss to Purdue, which is one of the best teams in the Big Ten.  The Buckeyes just beat Michigan State 72-67 at home before going on the road and winning at Nebraska.

Ohio State has had Northwestern's number to say the least.  The Buckeyes are 29-2 in their last 31 meetings with the Wildcats, including a perfect 15-0 in their last 15 home meetings.  Again, they just have to win the game today to cover.  Bet Ohio State Sunday.

15* Miami/Duke ESPN Saturday No-Brainer on Duke -9

I'm anticipating the best effort of the season from Duke here Saturday.  The Blue Devils are coming off back-to-back road losses against two of the top teams in the ACC in Florida State and Louisville.  They have now had a full week to fix their issues and get ready for Miami having last played last Saturday.

The Miami Hurricanes haven't shown me anything that would make be believe that they can even be competitive in this game Saturday.  They are 1-3 in their last four games overall, losing by 15 at Syracuse, by 5 at home to Notre Dame and by 17 at Wake Forest.  None of those three teams are as good as Duke.

And Miami is at a huge disadvantage getting just two days to prepare for Duke.  The Hurricanes played Wake Forest on Wednesday.  Adding to the Blue Devils' motivation is the fact that they've actually lost each of their last two meetings with the Hurricanes, who aren't nearly as strong this year as they were the past two seasons.

Duke is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home games after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games.  The Blue Devils are 9-0 at home this season with an average margin of victory of 28.7 points per game.  Miami is 1-8 ATS versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game this season.  The Hurricanes are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games overall.  Miami is 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games.  Bet Duke Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -1.5

The Detroit Pistons are going to be a great bet moving forward.  They haven't lived up to expectations yet as they are just 20-24 on the season, but it appears they are starting to turn the corner.

After winning 102-97 in Los Angeles, the Pistons came back and thumped Atlanta 118-95 at home.  Now the Pistons have had two days off since that game, and this will actually be just their 2nd game in 6 days.  Look for a big effort from them here given their rest advantage.

Washington is way overvalued right now due to going 14-5 in its last 19 games overall.  However, almost all of those wins have come at home.  The Wizards are just 5-13 SU & 7-11 ATS on the road this season.  They don't have the same rest advantage as this will be their 3rd game in 4 days.

Washington is 1-10 ATS off a road win where it scored 110 or more points over the last two seasons.  Detroit is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 home games with a total set of 210 or more.  The Pistons are 6-0 ATS in their last six games when playing on two days' rest.  The Wizards are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 meetings in Detroit.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet the Pistons Saturday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Northern Illinois -1

Northern Illinois has been consistently undervalued at home over the past few seasons.  Time and time again they are short home favorites, and the Huskies keep delivering for backers.  They are 8-2 at home this season while outscoring the opposition by 11.1 points per game on average.

The Huskies come in playing their best basketball of the season, going 8-1 SU in their last nine games overall with their only loss coming 67-69 at Miami Ohio.  Despite this fact, the Huskies continue to lack respect from oddsmakers here today.

Ohio just lost its best player in Antonio Campbell (16.4 ppg, 8.9 rpg) to a season-ending foot injury.  The results without him have not been good.  They lost at home to Eastern Michigan 49-53 as 7-point favorites, then proceeded to fall at Akron 68-83 as 6-point dogs.  They are clearly lost without Campbell.

The Huskies are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 home games.  The Bobcats are 9-19 ATS in their last 28 road games.  Northern Illinois is 8-0 ATS in home games off a home win over the last two seasons, coming back to win by nearly 20 points per game on average in this spot.  Roll with Northern Illinois Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on James Madison +8

James Madison is playing well having gone 5-3 SU & 5-2 ATS in its last eight games overall.  They suffered a 10-point road loss at Northeastern as 8-point dogs, a 51-53 loss to College of Charleston as 4.5-point home dogs, and a 72-73 loss at William & Mary as 7-point dogs in their three defeats, so they've been competitive in every game.

As you can see, this will be the second meeting between James Madison and College of Charleston this season.  I love taking the team in revenge mode, especially when they are catching a bunch of points on the road.  And after losing by just 2 to College of Charleston in the first meeting, I think there's a ton of value with James Madison at +8 in the rematch.

I think this is an awful spot for College of Charleston, which is coming off a 59-65 home loss to the best team in the conference in UNC-Wilmington as 3.5-point dogs.  Off that deflating loss, I look for them to suffer a hangover here, especially considering they won't be able to get up for a James Madison team that they've already beaten once this year.

The recent head-to-head history also favors James Madison, which is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Each of the last four meetings were decided by 7 points or less, and Charleston hasn't beaten James Madison by more than 3 points in any of those six meetings.

James Madison is 22-11 ATS in all road games over the last three seasons.  Charleston is 16-36-2 ATS in its last 54 home games.  The Cougars are 7-23-1 ATS in their last 31 Saturday games.  The Dukes are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 conference games.  Take James Madison Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Florida State -3

The Florida State Seminoles are 17-2 on the season, including a perfect 13-0 SU & 8-3 ATS at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by an average of 20.0 points per game on the season.  They have home wins over Florida (by 5), Wake Forest (by 16), VA Tech (by 15), Duke (by 16) and Notre Dame (by 3) recently.

Louisville is having a superb season as well, going 16-3 straight up and 12-5 ATS on the year.  But the Cardinals were dealt a big blow when they lost starting PG Quentin Snider (12.1 ppg, 4.0 apg) for 2-3 weeks with a hip injury.

The Cardinals were able to overcome his injury for a game and thump Clemson 92-60 at home, but now they will be playing just their 4th true road game of the season.  The other three weren't impressive at all as they only won by 9 at Grand Canyon, lost by 7 at Notre Dame and beat lowly Georgia Tech by 15.

Florida State is 6-0 ATS in home games off a home win this season.  Louisville is 2-9 ATS in road games against ACC opponents over the last two seasons.  The Cardinals are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as a road underdog.  Bet Florida State Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +10

The betting public wants nothing to do with the Brooklyn Nets right now.  They have lost 11 straight coming in while going 2-9 ATS in the process.  As a result, we're getting a huge number here with the Nets Friday, and the value is clearly with the double-digit road dog.

The schedule has been brutal of late which is a big reason for the Nets' struggles.  Their last three losses have come to the Raptors (twice) and Rockets.  They also lost 95-104 at home to the Pelicans on January 12th just over a week ago, which places them in revenge mode here in the rematch.

The Pelicans are getting too much respect from the books and the betting public due to going 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  But now we find them laying double-digits for the first time all season.  In fact, they haven't been more than 6-point favorites in any other game this year.

New Orleans is 12-26 ATS in its last 38 games off a home win by 20 points or more.  The Pelicans are 16-33 ATS in their last 49 vs. teams who are outscored by 9-plus points per game on the season.  The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Roll with the Nets Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -1

The Charlotte Hornets finally ended a five-game losing streak with a 107-85 home victory over the Portland Trail Blazers last time out.  All five of those losses came on the road, but the Hornets are 13-7 at home this season.  Look for them to build off that win with another here tonight.

The Raptors will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days here and started to show some fatigue in an 89-94 loss at Philadelphia on Wednesday.  And the Raptors are dealing with several injuries right now as DeMarre Carroll, Patrick Patterson and Lucas Nogueira are all questionable.

Toronto is 11-28 ATS in its last 39 road games versus teams who scored 103 or more points per game in the second half of the season.  The Raptors are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games, and 0-4 ATS in their last four road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Charlotte is 20-8 ATS in the last 28 meetings, and 8-3 ATS in the last 11 home meetings.  Take the Hornets Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Philadelphia 76ers +1.5

The Philadelphia 76ers are once again showing great value as home underdogs to the Portland Trail Blazers.  They are playing their best basketball of the season right now, yet getting no respect for it from the oddsmakers and betting public.

The 76ers have gone 7-2 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  The two losses came on the road to Boston (by 4) and Washington (by 16), and that loss to the Wizards was the second of a back-to-back without Joel Embiid.  When Embiid has been on the floor, this has been a 54-win team, and without him they're an 11-win team.

The Portland Trail Blazers are a mess this season.  They have lost three straight coming in against Eastern Conference foes, losing by 6 at home to Orlando, and by 19 at Washington and 22 at Charlotte.  This team is just out of it mentally right now, and I don't foresee them turning it around any time soon.

Portland is 5-18 ATS off three straight non-conference games over the last three seasons.  The Blazers are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 road games.  The 76ers are 29-14-1 ATS in their last 44 vs. Western Conference.  Philadelphia is 5-0 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the 76ers Friday.

15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +13

The Cleveland Cavaliers will suffer a hangover effect from their blowout loss to the Golden State Warriors last time out.  There's no way they'll be able to get up for the Phoenix Suns like they were against the Warriors.

The Suns have been playing some of their best basketball of the season of late.  They are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.  That includes an upset 108-105 win over San Antonio as 12.5-point dogs, a narrow 101-106 loss to Utah as 6.5-point dogs and a narrow 116-120 loss to Cleveland as 8.5-point dogs.

That also puts the Suns in revenge mode here after losing to the Cavaliers by 4 on January 8th less than two weeks ago.  And the Suns haven't lost any of their last nine games by more than 11 points, so getting 13 points here is a tremendous value.

Phoenix is 5-0 ATS in its last five vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Suns are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%.   The Cavaliers are 17-36-2 ATS in their last 55 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  Cleveland is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games overall.  Take the Suns Thursday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa -2.5

It has been like night and day for the Iowa Hawkeyes home and away.  They have been terrible on the road, but dominant at home this season.  The Hawkeyes have won seven straight home games coming into this contest against Maryland.

The Hawkeyes are 3-0 at home in Big Ten play, beating Michigan 86-83 as 2.5-point dogs, Rutgers 68-62 and Purdue 83-78 as 6-point dogs.  They also topped Iowa State 78-64 as 6-point dogs as part of this seven-game home winning streak.

I think Maryland comes in overvalued due to its 16-2 record this season where it has done most of its damage at home.  And the Terrapins have won three straight by 7 points or fewer coming in, and I think their luck runs out tonight in Iowa City in these close games.

Iowa is 11-1 ATS in home games vs. teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game over the last two seasons.  The Hawkeyes are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven home games.  They beat Maryland 71-55 in their last home meeting.  Bet Iowa Thursday.

15* Pacers/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento -1.5

The Sacramento Kings will be highly motivated for a victory here tonight.  They have lost five of their last six coming in while facing a brutal schedule.  The five losses have come against the Heat, Clippers, Warriors, Cavs and Thunder.

Another reason the Kings will be motivated is because this is their final home game before they partake in an 8-game road trip starting on Friday.  They have had two days off to get ready for the Pacers tonight, and they will be putting a lot into this game to get a victory.

Indiana is getting too much respect from oddsmakers now after going 6-1 in their last seven games overall against an extremely soft schedule with five of those wins coming at home.  But the Pacers are just 5-14 SU & 5-14 ATS on the road this season, getting outscored by 7.7 points per game.

Indiana is 1-10 ATS in road games off a win this season.  Sacramento is 9-1 ATS after playing a game as a home underdog this season.  The Pacers are 0-9 ATS in road games vs. good free throw shooting teams who make 76% or better this season.  The Kings are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games following a straight up loss.  Bet the Kings Wednesday.

20* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Northern Iowa -3

Northern Iowa wants revenge from a 66-77 road loss to Loyola back on January 1st.  In fact, the Panthers have lost three straight in this series, so they'll be playing with triple revenge here.  Look for them to get that revenge at home tonight.

The Panthers are undervalued right now after going 0-7 SU & 0-7 ATS during a stretch that dated back to a loss to Iowa.  They finally broke the streak with a 79-60 win at Drake last time out, and now they have their best player back healthy in Jeremy Morgan (16.9 ppg), who returned for the Drake game and scored 21 points.

Conversely, Loyola comes in overvalued after going 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  But the Ramblers have not fared well at UNI, going 1-4 straight up in their last five road meetings in this series.

The Panthers are 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 games following a straight up win.  Northern Iowa is 15-7-1 ATS in its last 23 games as a home favorite.  The Panthers are 24-11 ATS in their last 35 games as a home favorite of 3 points or less or PK.  The Panthers are 22-7 ATS off a conference win over the last three years.  Bet Northern Iowa Wednesday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Oklahoma +17

The Oklahoma Sooners are as undervalued as they'll be all season right now.  That's because they lost seven straight games before finally ending that streak with an 84-75 home win over Texas Tech on Saturday.  But the Sooners are still getting no respect from oddsmakers here despite going 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.

The biggest reason for the Sooners' struggles was that Jordan Woodard was injured and missed several games.  But he's back healthy now as he returned in a 70-81 loss to Kansas as 12-point dogs prior to the Texas Tech win.  This team will be a tough out moving forward with Woodard back.

West Virginia is as overvalued as it is going to be at any point this season due to its 15-2 start to the season.  That was evident last time out as the Mountaineers barely survived in a 74-72 win at lowly Texas as 11.5-point favorites.  Now they're being asked to lay a whopping 17 points to the Sooners tonight.  They're going to have to play a perfect game to cover this massive number.  Take Oklahoma Wednesday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Florida State -5.5

The Florida State Seminoles are a perfect 12-0 SU & 8-2 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 21.5 points per game.  They have been crushing opponents at home in ACC play, beating Wake Forest by 16, Virginia Tech by 15 and Duke by 16.

I believe Notre Dame comes into this game overvalued due to having won seven straight while covering each of the last four against the spread.  But the Fighting Irish's luck will run out here against an FSU team that is a legitimate contender to win the ACC this year.

The Seminoles beat the Fighting Irish 77-56 at home last season as 3-point underdogs.  They have actually won three of their last four meetings in this series.  This will be the toughest road game of the season for the Fighting Irish, who have been fortunate to escape with three close road wins by 5 points or less in ACC play.

Florida State is 9-0 ATS in home games versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game over the last two seasons.  The Seminoles are 11-1 ATS versus poor foul drawing teams who attempt 18 or fewer free throws per game over the last three years.  Roll with Florida State Wednesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Wisconsin -10

The Wisconsin Badgers are the best team in the Big Ten.  They have been dominant at home this year, going 10-0 straight up and 6-1 ATS in lined games while winning by an average of 27.6 points per game.  They beat Rutgers by 20 and Ohio State by 23 in their first two conference home games.

The Michigan Wolverines have been an overvalued commodity this season, especially of late.  They are 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall.  Their only two conferences wins came at home, and both were close as they only beat Penn State 72-69 as 11.5-point favorites, and Nebraska 91-85 as 8.5-point favorites.

The Wolverines lost to Maryland by 7 at home, and both Iowa and Illinois (by 16) on the road.  They are now 0-4 in true road games this season, getting outscored by an average of 13.0 points per game.  The Wolverines have been outrebounded by 40 boards in Big Ten play.  Wisconsin outrebounds its opponents by an average of 11 boards per game.  That is going to be where this game is won and covered as the Badgers kill Michigan on the glass in this one.

Wisconsin is 8-0 ATS off a home conference win over the last two seasons.  The Badgers are 12-3 ATS off a home blowout win by 20 points or more over the last three years.  Wisconsin is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 vs. teams who make 77% or more of their free throw attempts.  Michigan is 1-8 ATS versus good defensive teams that allow 42% shooting or less this season.  The Wolverines are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The Badgers are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games as a favorite.  Roll with Wisconsin Tuesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -11.5

The San Antonio Spurs will be highly motivated for a victory tonight after getting upset 108-105 by the Phoenix Suns in Mexico City.  And they have responded very well following a loss this season, going 7-1 while winning those seven games by an average of 19.7 points.

The Minnesota Timberwolves appeared to turn the corner with three straight home wins, but them promptly lost 87-98 on the road to the Dallas Mavericks on Sunday.  They are now just 5-14 SU & 6-13 ATS on the road this season.  And while they have just one day off in between games, the Spurs come in on two days' rest.

This has been a one-sided series to say the least.  The Spurs are 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Timberwolves.  Seven of those eight wins have come by at least 14 points, so this series hasn't even been competitive.

San Antonio is 8-0 ATS off a close loss by 3 points or less over the last two seasons.  It is coming back to win by an average of 21.7 points per game in this spot.  Bet the Spurs Tuesday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Akron -5

Akron is probably the best team in the MAC this season.  The Zips are off to a 14-3 start this year, including a perfect 4-0 in conference play.  They have won seven straight games coming in to this showdown with rival Ohio.

The Bobcats are at a big disadvantage here.  Leading scorer and rebound Antonio Campbell (16.4 ppg, 8.9 rpg) suffered a foot injury on Saturday against Eastern Michigan.  He played just 3 minutes before exiting, and the Bobcats went on to get upset 49-53 as 7-point home favorites.  Campbell is doubtful to return tonight.

Akron is 8-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 20.8 points per game.  The Zips are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with the Bobcats, winning by 15 at home, 12 on the road and 12 at home.  I expect another double-digit blowout victory for the Zips tonight.

Akron is 6-0 ATS after failing to cover four or five of their last six against the spread over the last three seasons.  THe Zips are 21-10-1 ATS in their last 32 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Akron is 21-10 ATS in its last 31 games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  The Bobcats are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5 points.  The Zips are 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings, and 7-1 ATS in their last eight home meetings.  Take Akron Tuesday.

20* Cavs/Warriors TNT Monday No-Brainer on UNDER 226.5

The books have set the bar too high in this NBA Finals rematch between the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers.  I look for a low-scoring affair in this contest, which is exactly what it has been the last several times these teams have gotten together.

In fact, the Warriors and Cavs haven't combined for more than 217 points in any of their last eight meetings.  They have averaged just 202.4 combined points per game in those eight meetings, which is roughly 24 points less than this posted total of 226.5.  As you can see, there is a ton of value with the UNDER.

Cleveland is 12-1 UNDER as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 13-6 in Warriors last 19 games overall.  The UNDER is 22-8-2 in Warriors last 32 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The UNDER is 5-0-2 in the last seven meetings in Golden State.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Seton Hall +14

No team has played Villanova tougher than Seton Hall over the past few seasons.  Last year, all three meetings between these teams were decided by 9 points or less.  The Pirates lost by 9 as 15-point road dogs, lost by 1 as 7-point home dogs and upset the Wildcats by 2 as 6-point dogs in the Big East Tournament.  The Pirates are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.

Seton Hall brought back four starters from that team and his playing well again this season.  The Pirates are 12-5 this season with all five of their losses coming by 14 points or less, including three by 5 points or fewer.  Off back-to-back tough road losses to Marquette (by 3) and Providence (by 4), the Pirates will be highly motivated for a victory here.

I think Villanova comes in overvalued off three straight wins by 12 points or more against Marquette, Xavier and St. John's.  The Wildcats aren't going to be able to consistently cover these inflated spreads as the oddsmakers know the betting public is going to be quick to back the national champs moving forward.

Seton Hall is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games as an underdog.  The Pirates are 6-0 ATS after having lost two of their last three games over the last two years.  Seton Hall is 6-0 ATS after 15-plus games against teams that win 80% or more of their games.  The Wildcats are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as a home favorite of 13.0 or greater.  Take Seton Hall Monday.

20* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on NC State -7.5

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are in a massive letdown spot here.  They are coming off a 75-63 upset home win as 10-point dogs to Clemson.  We saw what happened the last time the Yellow Jackets pulled off a 75-63 upset at home over UNC.  They proceeded to get blown out 57-110 at Duke in their next game.

The Yellow Jackets are just 1-3 on the road this season.  They haven't even been competitive away from home as they are getting outscored by 20.0 points per game on the highway.  I fully expect another double-digit blowout here.

NC State comes in hungry for a win after two straight road losses at UNC and Boston College.  I like the Wolfpack's chances of bouncing back here considering they are 10-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 18.5 points per game.  In their only ACC home game, they destroyed Virginia Tech 104-78.

Georgia Tech is 2-10 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over the last two seasons.  NC State is a perfect 9-0 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite over the last three seasons.  The Wolfpack are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.  Roll with NC State Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +13

The Brooklyn Nets are showing great value as double-digit home underdogs to the Houston Rockets Sunday.  The Nets have lost nine straight while going 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall, so the betting public wants nothing to do with them right now.  That's why we are getting such a big number here.

The Houston Rockets are overvalued because they have gotten off to a surprising 31-11 start.  But it's starting to catch up to them as they are 0-3 ATS in their last three games while getting upset in two straight games.  However, the public support continues to be there for them, so the oddsmakers are forced to inflate their lines.

The Nets are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Rockets.  They only lost 118-122 as 13.5-point road dogs in their first meeting this season in December, and now they are catching 13 again in the rematch at home this time around.  That just shows you that there is plenty of line value here.  Plus, the Nets won 110-105 as 5-point home dogs and 106-98 as 11.5-point road dogs in their two previous meetings with the Rockets.

The Nets are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.  Plays against favorites of 10 or more points (HOUSTON) - after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points, tired team - playing 8 or more games in 14 days are 78-38 (67.2%) ATS since 1996.  Take the Nets Sunday.

15* Spurs/Suns Mexico City No-Brainer on San Antonio -11

I look for the disciplined San Antonio Spurs to treat this game in Mexico City like a business trip.  I look for the youthful Phoenix Suns to treat this trip to Mexico City more like a vacation.  Expect the Spurs to roll because of their better mindset going in.

Plus, the Spurs have absolutely owned the Suns of late.  San Antonio is 9-0 SU & 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine meetings with Phoenix.  Amazingly, seven of the last eight wins by the Spurs in this series have come by 14 points or more.  The last eight have also come by an average of 20.1 points per game, which is roughly nine points more than this 11-point spread.

Phoenix is 1-11 ATS in January road games over the last two seasons.  San Antonio is 9-1 ATS after a combined score of 215 points or more this season.  The Spurs are 16-3 ATS versus terrible defensive teams that allow 103 or more points per game this season.  The Spurs are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  Roll with the Spurs Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Illinois -3

The Illinois Fighting Illini are 9-1 at home this season.  They are 2-0 at home in Big Ten play with a 75-70 win over Ohio State and an 85-69 win over Michigan.  They also beat NC State 88-74 at home earlier this season.  It's clear that they are taking advantage of their home floor this year, and this is a short price as a result.

Maryland is coming off a huge 75-72 home win over Indiana as 1.5-point dogs.  The Terrapins have only played two true road games this year.  They erased a double-digit deficit late to beat Georgetown 76-75, and also topped Michigan 77-70.  I think this will be their toughest road test of the season here, and they are in line to suffer their first loss.

There's no question that the Fighting Illini will be the more motivated team here to avenge their 84-59 road loss to the Terrapins on December 27th in their season opener.  Conversely, the Terrapins probably feel like they just have to show up to win here after winning that game by 25, and it's going to work against them.

Illinois is 17-2 ATS in its last 19 home games after scoring 45 points or more in the first half of last game.  The Fighting Illini are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.  The home team has won five of the last six meetings in this series.  Take Illinois Saturday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Utah +3

The Utah Utes are now healthy and playing their best basketball of the season.  They have won five of their last six games overall despite four of those games being played on the road.  Their only loss was a 10-point setback at Arizona.

I love the balance of this Utah team with six players averaging at least 10.4 points per game.  Leading scorer David Collette (15.4 ppg, 5.9 rpg) and Sedrick Barefield (12.1 ppg) have both missed eight games this season, while their best player in Kyle Kuzma (14.6 ppg, 9.5 rpg) has missed two.  But they have had their full compliment of players for a few games now and the results have shown that they are one of the best teams in the Pac-12.

I've been riding UCLA a lot this season, but not lately because they've been overvalued, as they are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  And I believe them to be overvalued here after their 104-89 win at Colorado on Thursday as 5-point favorites.

That makes this a very tough spot for the Bruins, who will be playing their 2nd road game in 3 days.  With all the traveling they've had to do, they have had little time to prepare for Utah.  Meanwhile, the Utes beat USC 86-64 at home on Thursday and now get to stay at home here.  Without the travel, they'll be by far the more prepared team for this matchup.

The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Utah is 9-1 at home this season and winning by 22.4 points per game.  UCLA is 0-6 ATS in road games after failing to cover four of their last five against the spread over the last three seasons.  The Bruins are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 vs. Pac-12 opponents.  UCLA is 6-19-1 ATS in its last 26 games as a road favorite.  Roll with Utah Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Virginia Tech -2.5

The Virginia Tech Hokies are one of the most underrated teams in college basketball.  They are 13-3 this season and have been especially tough at home, going 10-0 with recent wins over Syracuse 83-73 as 3-point favorites and Duke 89-75 as 4.5-point dogs.

Notre Dame has only played two true road games this season.  The Fighting Irish are 2-0 in them, but they came by a combined 6 points at Miami 67-62 and at Pitt 78-77 in overtime.  This will easily be their toughest road test of the season, and I look for them to struggle in this hostile atmosphere.

Virginia Tech nearly beat Notre Dame as 12.5-point road dogs last year in their lone meeting.  The Hokies only lost that game by a final of 81-83.  And there's no question the Hokies are better this season and a legit contender in the ACC.  Look for them to prove that in this game.

The Hokies are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 home games, including 5-0 ATS in their last five games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  Notre Dame is 3-11 ATS in road games off an ATS win over the last two seasons.  Virginia Tech is 6-0 ATS after failing to cover two of their last three ATS over the last two seasons.  Bet Virginia Tech Saturday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -4

The Charlotte Hornets are highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost three straight and five of their last six coming in.  Four of the losses came on the road to the Bulls, Pistons, Spurs and Rockets, while the lone home loss came to the Cavs.  They also beat the Thunder by 11 at home during this stretch.

It's safe to say that the recent struggles can almost exclusively be attributed to the tough schedule, and not poor performance.  But now the Hornets get a break in the schedule here against the lowly Philadelphia 76ers, who come in overvalued due to having gone 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  The four wins came against the Nuggets, T'Wolves, Nets and Knicks, four below-average teams.

I like the fact that the Hornets will be motivated here because that means they aren't going to take the 76ers lightly.  And that's not something they do anyways.  That's obvious by the fact that the Hornets have won six straight meetings with the 76ers.  The last five have all come by 9 points or more and by an average of 17.0 points per game.  Look for the domination to continue tonight.

Plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CHARLOTTE) - an explosive offensive team (at least102 PPG) against a good offensive team (98-102 PPG), after allowing 110 points or more are 49-17 (74.2%) ATS since 1996.

Both Nicolas Batum and Cody Zeller are expected to return to the lineup tonight.  Batum missed the last three games, while Zeller sat out the last one.  The Hornets are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Charlotte is 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to Philadelphia.  The road team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Bet the Hornets Friday.

15* Pistons/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Detroit +13.5

The Golden State Warriors have been great fade material of late.  They keep getting a ton of respect from oddsmakers because the betting public is always going to be heavy on them.  And as a result, their lines continue to be inflated, providing value on the opposing teams.

That has especially been the case of late as the Warriors are 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall, and just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 contests.  They haven't won any of their last nine games by more than 12 points.  They clearly aren't concerned with winning by margins this year.

The Pistons just faced the Warriors on December 23rd in their first meeting this season.  They only lost that game 113-119 at home as 7-point dogs.  They beat the Warriors 113-95 as 7-point home dogs in their final meeting last season as well.  They've clearly proven they can play with this team.

Detroit is 30-13 ATS in its last 43 games when the total is 210 or more.  The Pistons are 13-3 ATS in road games revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points over the last three seasons.  The Warriors are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a losing record.  Golden State is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following a straight up win.  Roll with the Pistons Thursday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa +6

The Iowa Hawkeyes want revenge from a 67-89 loss at Purdue to open conference play this season.  They don't have to wait long to get it as they will now get a shot at the Boilermakers only two weeks later.  I look for them to take advantage and keep this game close, possibly pulling off the upset.

The Hawkeyes have played well since that defeat.  They beat Michigan 86-83 in overtime at home, only lost 90-93 in double-overtime at Nebraska in a game they should have won, and then beat Rutgers 68-62 at home last time out.  Iowa has now won six straight home games, which includes a 78-64 victory over Iowa State as well.

This is clearly a letdown spot for Purdue.  The Boilermakers are coming off their biggest win of the season, a 66-55 victory over Wisconsin, which was the favorite to win the conference coming into the season.  This will only be the third true road game for the Boilermakers this season.  They lost 64-71 at Louisville and barely beat Ohio State 76-75.

Iowa is 6-0 ATS in home games after playing a game as a home favorite over the last two seasons.  The Hawkeyes are 10-1 ATS in home games versus teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game over the last two seasons.  The Hawkeyes are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as a home underdog of 0.5-6.5 points.  The home team is 12-3 ATS in the last 15 meetings.  The Boilermakers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven trips to Iowa City.  Take Iowa Thursday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Utah -5

The Utah Utes have gotten healthy and are now playing their best basketball of the season.  They have won four of their last five games overall despite four of those games being played on the road.  The lone loss was a 10-point setback at Arizona.

I love the balance of this Utah team with six players averaging at least 10.6 points per game.  Leading scorer David Collette (15.4 ppg, 6.0 rpg) and Sedrick Barefield (11.9 ppg) have both missed eight games this season, while their best player in Kyle Kuzma (14.8 ppg, 9.4 rpg) has missed two.  But they have their full compliment of players now moving forward.

The USC Trojans got off to a 14-0 start this season against a very weak schedule, but they've since lost two of their last three.  They lost 61-84 at Oregon and 73-74 at home to California with their lone victory coming at home against lowly Stanford.  Their true colors are starting to show as they are now 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall.

This has been a one-sided series to say the least.  The Utes are a perfect 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Trojans.  Each of the last six victories have come by at least 8 points and by an average of 16.2 points per game.  This appears to be a very short price given the series history.

Utah is 8-1 at home this season, and 8-1 ATS after playing two consecutive road games over the last three seasons.  The Trojans are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games.  USC is 0-4 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Utes are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  Bet Utah Thursday.

15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on Wyoming -4.5

The Wyoming Cowboys have one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the country.  They are 9-0 SU & 5-2 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by nearly 13 points per game.  I think this is a very short number here and we'll take advantage.

That's especially the case considering the Cowboys will be motivated for a victory after losing two straight and three of their last four coming in.  The last two were both true road games at UNLV and Fresno State, while the other was a tough 92-94 loss to a very good USC team on a neutral court.

Conversely, Utah State comes in off two straight home victories over UNLV and New Mexico.  But the Aggies have only played three true road games this season.  They lost 73-78 at Air Force, and barely beat Utah Valley State 80-79 in their last two.  This will be by far their toughest road test of the season here tonight.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Wyoming is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four home meetings with Utah State, winning by 19, 23, 17 and 6 points, respectively.

Utah State is 0-7 ATS in road games off one or more consecutive unders over the last two seasons.  The Aggies are 0-7 ATS versus good teams who outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game this season.  Wyoming is 9-0 ATS in home games versus good 3-point shooting teams who make 37% or better over the last three years.  The Aggies are 0-5 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.  These last five trends combine for a perfect 32-0 system backing the Cowboys.  Roll with Wyoming Wednesday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Minnesota Timberwolves +4

The Minnesota Timberwolves have had numerous second-half collapses this season.  Perhaps none were worse than their 111-109 overtime loss at home to the Rockets in December.  They have 12 losses this season when leading by double-digits, and they led by 12 points with 2:19 left in that game.

But the Rockets closed on a 14-2 run thanks to four 3-pointers from Ryan Anderson and Trevor Ariza.  James Harden then scored 10 points in overtime to lead Houston to victory.  It's safe to say that the Timberwolves haven't forgotten, and they'll be highly motivated for revenge tonight as a result.

And just like in that game, Houston comes in playing the second of a back-to-back.  This will also be the 5th game in 7 days for the Rockets.  They are running on fumes right now, and that started to show last night as they blew an 18-point lead in the fourth quarter to the Hornets, only to win 121-114 as 9-point favorites.  They won't be so fortunate to escape with victory again tonight.

The Timberwolves are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Minnesota is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games following an ATS win.  The Rockets are 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings in this series.  Bet the Timberwolves Wednesday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Marquette -5.5

The Marquette Golden Eagles don't have to wait long for revenge.  They just lost 66-69 at Seton Hall on January 1st, and now they face the Pirates again 10 days later at home this time around.  I look for them to get their revenge in blowout fashion.

After opening the Big East campaign with a 76-66 win over Georgetown, the Golden Eagles have lost two straight tough road games and Seton Hall and Villanova.  But now they return home where they are 8-1 on the season and outscoring opponents by an average of 19.4 points per game.

Seton Hall has only played two true road games all season.  One was a win over a down Iowa team, while the other resulted in a 14-point loss at Creighton.  The Pirates are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.  Take Marquette Wednesday.

15* Blazers/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles ML +110

The Los Angeles Lakers have been playing extremely well at home this season.  They are 10-10 at home, and they are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three home games with wins by 14 over Memphis, by 27 over Miami and by 16 over Orlando.  Look for them to continue to roll at home tonight.

The Portland Trail Blazers are clearly having a down season.  They are just 16-23 on the year, and they have really struggled on the road, going 6-15 SU & 8-13 ATS.  Their biggest problem is giving up 113.9 points per game on average in road games this season.

The Lakers will be extra motivated tonight to avenge a 109-118 road loss at Portland on January 5th just five days ago.  They actually led that game 62-53 at halftime before blowing it in the second half, especially in the last few minutes.  Look for them to get their payback less than a week later here.

Portland is 2-10 ATS after playing a game as a home favorite this season.  The Blazers are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games following a ATS loss.  Portland is 1-5 ATS in its last six after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game.  The Lakers have actually lost nine straight in this series, which only adds to their motivation for a win here.  Take the Lakers on the Money Line Tuesday. 

15* Duke/Florida State ACC Tuesday No-Brainer on Florida State -2.5

The Florida State Seminoles continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.  They are 15-1 this season with wins over the likes of Minnesota, Florida, Wake Forest and VA Tech at home, and Virginia on the road.  They are clearly one of the best teams in the ACC.

Duke continues to be overvalued.  It has gone just 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall.  The Blue Devils have only played two true road games this season, winning at UNLV but losing 75-89 at Virginia Tech despite being 4.5-point favorites.  And they only won by 11 as 26-point favorites over Boston College last time out.

Injuries have played a part in Duke's struggles, and it will be without another key player tonight.  Amile Jefferson (13.6 ppg, 10.1 rpg) has been their best interior player all season, and he is expected to miss this game with a foot injury.  Look for the Seminoles to take advantage.  They are 11-0 SU & 7-2 ATS at home this season and will feed off their rowdy home crowd tonight.

Duke is 0-6 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons.  Florida State is 6-0 ATS in home games after scoring 85 points or more over the last two years.  The Seminoles are 8-0 ATS in home games vs. teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game over the last two seasons.  The Blue Devils are 0-5 ATS in their last five games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5.  These four trends combine for a perfect 25-0 system backing the Seminoles.  Bet Florida State Tuesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Raptors -4

The Toronto Raptors will be highly motivated for a victory at home tonight against the Boston Celtics.  The Raptors are going through their worst stretch of the season, losing five of their last seven games overall.  And that's why they are undervalued right now laying only 4 points at home here.

Conversely, the Boston Celtics have won four straight coming in, making them overvalued right now.  But keep in mind that all four of those victories came at home, and they were mostly against subpar teams in the Heat, Jazz, 76ers and Pelicans.  And they only beat the Heat by 3 and the 76ers by 4.

The Raptors have had the Celtics' number, going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  And while the Raptors are basically at full strength right now, the Celtics are not.  They will be missing both center Tyler Zeller and starting shooting guard Avery Bradley for this one.  Not having Bradley is huge because he plays such great defense against opponents' best guards.

The Celtics are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games playing on two days' rest.  The Raptors are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Toronto is 8-1 ATS after a home game where both teams scored 100 or more points this season.  Bet the Raptors Tuesday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Virginia Tech -3.5

Off back-to-back tough road losses at NC State and Florida State, look for the Virginia Tech Hokies to come back highly motivated for a victory at home here tonight against Syracuse.  I think they come in undervalued after their first losing streak of the season.

Syracuse is starting to get some love from oddsmakers now after winning and covering back-to-back home games against Miami by 15 and Pittsburgh by 11.  But keep in mind that the Orange are 0-2 in true road games with blowout losses to Wisconsin by 17 as 6-point dogs and to Boston College by 15 as 10.5-point favorites.

Also keep in mind that Virginia Tech is 9-0 at home this season and winning by 19.7 points per game on average.  That includes a win over Duke 89-75 as 4.5-point dogs in their ACC home opener just a week and a half ago.  I look for them to bounce back with a dominant win here as well.

Virginia Tech is 15-3 ATS after allowing 80 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Hokies are 6-0 ATS in home games off a conference loss over the last two seasons.  Virginia Tech is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 home games.  The Hokies are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5.  The Orange are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win.  Roll with Virginia Tech Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Knicks -3.5

The New York Knicks will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost seven of their last eight games overall coming in and need a win here to stem the tide.  I look for them to come out with an inspired effort tonight as a result.

The Pelicans have lost three straight coming in.  They are just 4-13 SU & 6-10-1 ATS in all road games this season, getting outscored by an average of 7.3 points per game on the season.  The Knicks are 11-7 SU & 12-6 ATS at home, finally enjoying a home-court advantage this season as fans have been excited about this team.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series in recent meetings.  In fact, the home team is a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Pelicans are 5-12 ATS in the last 17 meetings, including 2-6 ATS in their last eight trips to New York.

The Knicks are 12-2 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season.  New York is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 home games.  The Knicks are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  The Pelicans are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Take the Knicks Monday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers -3.5

The Portland Trail Blazers just recently returned their best player to the lineup in Damian Lillard.  They are starting to play much better of late with a 5-1 ATS record in their last six contests.  They are once again being undervalued here as only 3.5-point favorites over the Detroit Pistons.

The Pistons don't deserve the kind of respect they're getting from oddsmakers here.  They are just 3-8 SU & 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Detroit is also 7-12 SU & 7-12 ATS in road games this season, while Portland is 10-7 SU at home.

Plays against any team (DETROIT) - off an home win scoring 110 or more points, in a game involving two marginal losing teams (40 to 49%) are 73-37 (66.4%) ATS since 1996.

The Pistons are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a win.  Detroit is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on one days' rest.  Portland is 6-2 ATS in its last eight home games.  The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Detroit is 1-4 ATS in its last five trips to Portland.  Take the Blazers Sunday.

20* Wisconsin/Purdue Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Purdue -3

The Purdue Boilermakers are on a mission to win the Big Ten this season.  Almost everyone picked Wisconsin prior to the season, so they know that they need to knock off the Badgers here.  That's especially the case after suffering an upset loss to Minnesota a couple games back.

Purdue has a tremendous home-court advantage, and it owned Wisconsin in both meetings last season.  The Boilermakers won 91-80 as 6-point home favorites and 61-55 as 5-point road favorites in their two meetings last year.  I think they win this game as well for their 3rd in a row in the series.

Purdue is 11-3 SU & 10-4 ATS in its last 14 home meetings with Wisconsin.  The Boilermakers are 6-0 ATS versus good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game this season.  Purdue is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games.  The Boilermakers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite.  Roll with Purdue Sunday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington State +15

The Washington State Cougars are one of the most improved teams in the country.  They are a senior-laden team that has won four straight, including each of their first two Pac-12 games with a 79-74 win at Washington as 12.5-point dogs and a 75-62 home victory over Oregon State as 4-point favorites.

I think Oregon comes into this game way overvalued due to winning 12 straight, including three straight to open conference play with victories over UCLA and USC at home, as well as Washington on the road.  It's time to fade them now that they are laying a whopping 15 points on the road to the Cougars here.

Washington is a common opponent.  The Cougars beat the Huskies 79-74 on the road, while the Ducks beat them 83-61 on the road.  But that was a close game against Washington until Tyler Dorsey caught fire late in the second half to pull away.  He made 8-of-12 3-pointers for the game with almost all of them coming in the second half.  It was a 22-point win, but that game was much closer than that.

The home team is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings.  Washington State upset Oregon 108-99 in its last home meeting with the Ducks.  The Ducks are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games following a ATS win.  The Ducks are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite of 13.0 or greater.  The Cougars are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  The home team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Bet Washington State Saturday.

15* Oklahoma State/Baylor Big 12 No-Brainer on Oklahoma State +11

The Baylor Bears are way overvalued right now due to their 14-0 start to the season that has them sitting as the No. 2 ranked team in the country.  We saw evidence of that last time out as the Bears needed a game-winner late to beat Iowa State 65-63 at home as 8.5-point favorites.

The Bears are feeling fat and happy and ripe for an upset right now.  Meanwhile, the Oklahoma State Cowboys are hungry for their first taste of victory within the conference after starting 0-2 with a home loss to West Virginia, and a tough 79-82 road loss at Texas.

But we've seen earlier what the Cowboys are capable of on the road.  They've blown out Georgetown 97-70 on a neutral court, won 93-76 at Wichita State as 7.5-point dogs, and only lost 70-71 at Maryland.  They are certainly capable of pulling off the upset here, let alone staying within 11 points of Baylor here.

Oklahoma State is 6-0 ATS in road games vs. teams who commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game over the last two seasons.  Plays against home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (BAYLOR) - off a home win against a conference rival, with just two starters returning from last season are 70-36 (66%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last four games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5.  Take Oklahoma State Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Oklahoma +11

The Oklahoma Sooners are way undervalued right now.  They have lost five straight coming in, so the betting public wants nothing to do with them.  But four of those five losses came by 5 points or less with the lone exception being a blowout loss to unbeaten Baylor, one of the top teams in the country.

Oklahoma was just catching 11 points at TCU and only lost 57-60.  But the Sooners have been without PG Jordan Woodard in recent games, and he's doubtful again tonight.  The oddsmakers are over-adjusting for his absence, and the Sooners are starting to get used to playing without him.

I think this is a tremendous spot to fade Kansas State, which is coming off its biggest game of the season in an 88-90 road loss to rival Kansas.  I look for the Wildcats to suffer an emotional hangover from that defeat and to come out flat today against the Sooners.  They won't have the kind of focus and intensity it's going to take to put the Sooners away by double-digits.  Oklahoma will be the more motivated team looking to end this 5-game skid.

Nine of the last 10 meetings in this series have been decided by 11 points or fewer.  The Sooners are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5.  The Wildcats are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a ATS win.  The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Roll with Oklahoma Saturday.

20* Knicks/Bucks ESPN Friday No-Brainer on UNDER 214

The New York Knicks and Milwaukee Bucks will be playing a home-and-home here Friday night.  They just played on Wednesday, and the Bucks won 105-104 on a game-winner at the buzzer by the Giannis Antetokounmpo.  Now they are playing just two nights later.

I always look to back the UNDER in the second meeting of these home-and-home situations.  That's because there is a familiarity between the teams that makes points harder to come by in the second meeting.  And I think that will be the case again here as these teams combined for 209 points with a 213-point total in the first meeting, and now the total is actually set higher at 214 in the rematch, so the oddsmakers have failed to adjust.

And this has been a very low-scoring series in general.  In fact, the Bucks and Knicks have combined for 209 or fewer in seven of their last eight meetings.  They have averaged just 193.1 combined points per game in those eight meetings, which is roughly 21 points less than tonight's posted total of 214.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Northwestern -4

The Minnesota Golden Gophers are coming off their biggest win of the season, a 91-82 upset road win at Purdue as 14-point dogs.  This is clearly a huge letdown spot for them now, and I don't expect them to show up at all tonight at Northwestern.

Meanwhile, the Wildcats had their nine-game winning streak snapped with a 52-61 road loss to Michigan State last time out.  That came after an 87-77 win at Penn State in their conference opener.  The Wildcats will be hungry to get back in the win column here and to win their conference home opener tonight.

Both of these teams are improved this season, but it's worth noting that the Wildcats destroyed the Golden Gophers in their two meetings last year.  They won 77-52 as 2.5-point road favorites and 82-58 as 8-point home favorites.  They have now won five of the last six meetings in this series while going 5-1 ATS in the process.

Minnesota is 0-8 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less over the last three seasons.  Northwestern is 6-0 ATS versus good teams who outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game this season.  The Golden Gophers are 1-15 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog of 0.5-6.5.  The Wildcats are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5.  These four trends combine for a 35-1 system backing the Wildcats.  Roll with Northwestern Thursday.

20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -2.5

The New Orleans Pelicans are now playing their best basketball of the season now that they are fully healthy.  They have won four of their last five games overall with their only loss coming in Cleveland.  They are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as well.  And now they are still getting no respect from oddsmakers as only 2.5-point home favorites here.

The Atlanta Hawks are getting a ton of respect from the books now that they have won four straight coming in.  However, this team is in a very bad spot tonight.  The Hawks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a win in Orlando last night.  Meanwhile, the Pelicans come in on two days' rest after playing the Cavs on Monday.

Atlanta is 0-7 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage from 25% to 40% this season.  It is actually losing to these teams by an average of 7.4 points per game.  The Hawks are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win.  The Pelicans are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Bet the Pelicans Thursday.

15* Conference USA PLAY OF THE DAY on Marshall -3.5

The Marshall Thundering Herd are one of the most improved teams in the country under Dan D'Antoni, Mike D'Antoni's brother, this season.  They have gone 9-3 ATS in all lined games this season, time and time again beting undervalued by oddsmakers.

Some of their losses have actually been more impressive than their wins.  They went into Cincinnati and forced overtime as 20.5-point dogs, only losing 91-93.  They went into Pitt as 12.5-point dogs and only lost 106-112.  Despite those back-to-back losses in late December, they didn't suffer any hangover as they went on to beat FIU 94-70 as 4-point road favorites and FAU 89-72 as 6.5-point favorites in their last two contests.

Marshall has a better team than last year, yet it swept Old Dominion in the season series last season.  The Thundering Herd won 78-75 as 6.5-point road dogs, then came back and stomped the Monarchs 82-65 as 2.5-point home favorites in the rematch.  I think another blowout can be expected here.

Marshall is 10-1 ATS off a win by 15 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Thundering Herd are 7-0 ATS after playing a road game this season.  The Thundering Herd are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games as a favorite.  The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take Marshall Thursday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington +10

After back-to-back huge victories over UCLA and USC, the Oregon Ducks are overvalued now.  The betting public has jumped all over them after handing both UCLA and USC their first losses of the season, and now they are being asked to lay a whopping 10 points on the road to Washington tonight.

Let's not let two performances mask how poorly the Ducks played in the early going.  They went just 4-7 ATS in their first 11 lined games.  And both of those big wins over UCLA and USC came at home, where the Ducks rarely lose.  But they have played just one true road game the entire season, which was a 49-66 loss at Baylor.

Washington comes in undervalued after a bad 74-79 home loss as 12.5-point favorites against Washington State.  But that was a rivalry game where anything can happen.  And the result has provided some extra line value here for the Huskies as the betting public wants nothing to do with this team, which has gone 1-6 ATS in their last seven contests.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is a perfect 5-0 SU in the last five meetings.  And these games are almost always close.  In fact, six of the last seven meetings have been decided by 8 points or fewer.  Washington is 6-1 ATS in the last six meetings, and 13-5 ATS in its last 18 home meetings.  The Ducks are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a ATS win.  The underdog is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Bet Washington Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Hawks/Magic OVER 207

I believe the books have set the bar too low here in this contest between the Atlanta Hawks and Orlando Magic tonight.  These have been two dead-nut over teams of late and I think that trend continues here as we see plenty of offensive fireworks in this one, and little defense played.

The OVER is 4-0 in Magic's last four games overall.  They have combined for 214, 221, 221 and 218 points in those four contests.  The OVER is 7-4 in Hawks' last 11 games overall.  They have combined with their opponents for 217 or more points six times during this stretch.

And the recent head-to-head history favors the OVER, too.  In their first meeting this season, the Magic won 131-120 for 251 combined points.  There was very little defense played obviously as the Magic shot 58.6% from the floor while the Hawks shot 50.0%.

The OVER is 5-1-1 in Hawks last seven road games.  The OVER is 7-2 in Magic's last nine home games.  The OVER is 4-0 in Magic's last four after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Roll with the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Duquesne +10.5

This is a big number for the Duquesne Dukes to be catching tonight in their conference home opener against Virginia Commonwealth.  I'll gladly take the points with the way that the Dukes have been playing coming in.  This is a game they will have a chance to win outright.

The Dukes are 5-1 in their last six games overall.  That includes a 64-55 upset of Pitt as 14-point dogs on a neutral court.  The Dukes have lost five games this season, but only one of them came by double-digits, which was a true road game at national power Kentucky.  That is obviously understandable.

VCU has played only three true road games this season, and although it is 3-0 in those games, none of them came by double-digits.  They beat Liberty 64-59, Old Dominion 67-64 and George Mason 73-64.  As stated before, the Dukes haven't lost a home game by double-digits this year.

Duquesne is 6-0 ATS in a home game when the total is 140 to 144.5 over the last three seasons.  VCU is 58-83 ATS in its last 141 games as a favorite of 10 points or more.  The Dukes are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Take Duquesne Wednesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Dallas Mavericks +2

The Dallas Mavericks are starting to play better now that they've gotten healthy.  The have won four of their last eight games overall with three of their four losses coming on the road, and two of them to the Rockets and Warriors.  Amazingly, they're only 4.5 games out of the playoffs in the West, and they are clearly motivated to get this thing turned around.

"We obviously know we have a legit shot," Dirk Nowitzki said. "We've got to put a little string together and we've got to play better. We've got to find a way in close games to close some of those out and not always come out on the losing end. I don't think we're really playing for draft position.  We're playing to win every night."

I think this is a great spot to fade the Washington Wizards.  They are coming off a 91-101 loss to the Rockets on the road last night, blowing a 15-point lead after the first quarter.  Now they'll be playing the second of a back-to-back here, while the Mavs have had three days off in between games having last played on Friday.

The Mavericks have owned the Wizards, going 11-1 straight up in the last 12 meetings dating back to 2010.  The Wizards are 1-5 SU when playing the 2nd of a back-to-back this season, and 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games in this situation.  Dallas is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a loss.  Bet the Mavericks Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on St. Bonaventure PK

I like this St. Bonaventure team.  It made the NCAA Tournament last year and is off to a 10-4 start this season with its four losses all coming by 7 points or less.  The Bonnies have gone on the road and won and covered against both Hofstra and UMass, winning 89-77 as 2-point dogs against the Minutemen in their Atlantic 10 opener.

Dayton is a quality team again this season at 10-3, but it has only played one true road game all season.  The Flyers will now be playing for the first time on the road since November 15th.  And they are likely to be doing it without their best player.

Charles Cooke has a bone bruise in his back and is questionable to play tonight.  He averages 18.7 points and 5.7 rebounds per game, leading the team in both categories.  The Flyers were already without third-leading scorer Josh Cunningham (13.2 ppg), who also leads the team with an average of 3.8 assists per game.

Dayton is 2-10 ATS in road games off a combined score of 125 points or fewer over the last three seasons.  St. Bonaventure is 12-3 ATS off a combined score of 165 points or more over the last three years.  The Flyers are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 conference games.  The Bonnies are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 conference games.  Roll with St. Bonaventure Tuesday.

15* UNC/Clemson ESPN 2 Tuesday No-Brainer on North Carolina -2.5

I expect a big effort from the North Carolina Tar Heels tonight.  They are coming off an ugly 63-75 loss at Georgia Tech as 17-point favorites in their ACC opener on Saturday.  Look for them to play motivated basketball here tonight to avoid an 0-2 start in conference play.

North Carolina leads the all-time series 130-20 over Clemson.  The Tar Heels have won eight straight meetings with the Tigers dating back to 2011.  They have won the last five in blowout fashion by 11, 24, 19, 9 and 22 points, respectively.

Clemson comes into this game getting way too much respect from oddsmakers due to winning nine straight and covering each of their last four.  But that has mostly come against a soft schedule, and they had huge comeback wins over the two best teams they played in South Carolina (by 2) and Wake Forest (by 5).  They closed the game on a 12-0 run to beat the Demon Deacons on Saturday, which was highly unlikely.

North Carolina is 7-0 ATS off an upset loss as a road favorite of 7 points or more since 1997.  The Tar Heels are 47-22 ATS in their last 69 games off an upset loss as a favorite.  The Tar Heels are 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Take North Carolina Tuesday.

15* NBA PLAY OF THE DAY on New Orleans Pelicans +10

Now healthy for the first time all season, the New Orleans Pelicans are starting to show what they are capable of.  They have own four straight coming in and will be motivated to take on the defending champion Cavaliers tonight to show what they are made of.

The Cavaliers come in overvalued due to having won seven of their last eight games overall.  They are at a disadvantage here because they have only one day off in between games, while the Pelicans have had two days off to get ready for the Cavaliers.

The Pelicans have really had the Cavs' number in recent meetings, too.  They have won five of the last seven meetings overall, and eight of the last 11 as well.  The Pelicans are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Roll with the Pelicans Monday.

15* CBB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Delaware +8.5

The Delaware Blue Hens are showing great value here as 8.5-point home dogs to the Charleston Cougars.  I think they're good enough to win this game outright, so getting the 8.5 points is just an added bonus here.

Delaware is 5-1 at home this season.  Its only loss came last time out against a very good Hofstra team by a final of 56-58 as 8-point dogs.  The Blue Hens pulled the 63-54 upset of Iona as 10-point dogs in their previous home game, too.  If they can handle those two teams, they can certainly handle Charleston.

One thing that really stood out to me was just how closely-contested this series has been in recent years.  Indeed, a ridiculous eight straight meetings have been decided by 6 points or less.  Seven of those came within the last three seasons.  And the home team has won seven of the last nine meetings.

Delaware is 6-0 ATS in its last six meetings with Charleston.  The Cougars are 14-39 ATS in their last 53 games following a ATS win.  The Blue Hens are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Delaware is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games as an underdog.  Charleston is 4-18 ATS in its last 22 when playing its 2nd game in 3 days.  Bet Delaware Monday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -6

The Indiana Pacers have underachieved up to this point of the season.  And I think they're going to be a good bet moving forward here.  I certainly like backing them at home as they are 12-5 SU & 9-8 ATS in home games this season.

I think the Orlando Magic come into this game overvalued.  They have gone 5-4 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last nine games overall.  But they are coming off a 101-120 home loss to the Hornets, and they played that game without leading scoring Evan Fournier, who is questionable to play again tonight.

This is a matchup that the Pacers clearly love.  In fact, the Pacers are 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Magic.  They have absolutely dominated the Magic at home, going 9-1 straight up in the last 10 meetings with ALL nine victories coming by 10 points or more.  I think another double-digit victory can be expected here.  Roll with the Pacers Sunday.

15* Missouri Valley PLAY OF THE DAY on Evansville -2

The Evansville Purple Aces have one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the country.  They have gone a perfect 8-0 at home this season while outscoring opponents by 19.0 points per game on average.  We'll gladly back them as only 2-point favorites over Northern Iowa here.

Northern Iowa is one of the most overrated teams in the land.  The Panthers are still getting too much credit for making the NCAA Tournament last year and winning a game, but this isn't nearly as good of a team.  That's evident by their 5-7 SU & 3-8 ATS record this year.  The Panthers have lost three straight and seven of their last nine while going 1-8 ATS in the process.  Their only wins came at home against North Dakota and South Dakota State.

The Purple Aces have had this game circled on their calendars.  Remarkably, they went 0-3 against Northern Iowa last season with the three losses coming by a combined 7 points.  They lost by 3, 2 and 2 points to the Panthers.  There's no question they are going to want some revenge here, and I think they get it in a big way.

Northern Iowa is 0-6 ATS in road games when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons.  The Panthers are 0-7 ATS versus good teams who outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game this season.  The Panthers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Take Evansville Sunday.

15* Nebraska/Maryland Big Ten Early ANNIHILATOR on Maryland -7.5

The Maryland Terrapins are 13-1 this season, yet they continue lacking the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.  They are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They were only 3-point home favorites over Illinois in their Big Ten opener, and I backed them successfully in an 84-59 blowout win.

I'm going to back the Terrapins again here Sunday at this short 7.5-point spread.  The main reason I like them here is because it's a good spot to fade the Nebraska Cornhuskers, who are coming off their biggest win of the season.  They beat Indiana 87-83 as 13.5-point road dogs on Wednesday.

Now the Cornhuskers are primed for a letdown here.  That's an Indiana team that is really struggling of late with recent double-digit losses to Louisville and Butler as well.  So I think the Huskers are getting too much respect from oddsmakers for that victory.  After all, the Huskers were terrible in their previous four games, losing to Creighton by 15, to Kansas by 17, to Gardner Webb by 8 as 14-point favorites, and they barely beat Southern 81-76 at home.

Nebraska is 11-29 ATS in its last 40 road games after scoring 80 points or more.  Maryland is 20-5 ATS in its last 25 home games after successfully covering the spread in three or more consecutive games.  The Cornhuskers are 16-36 ATS in their last 52 games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5.  Bet Maryland Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -11

The Utah Jazz are finally getting back to full strength as George Hill has returned to the lineup.  Hill is second on the team in scoring (20.1 ppg) and 1st in assists (4.3 apg).  He has only played in 12 games this season, and they won the last five in which he did.

Hill had 21 points, 8 boards and 6 assists in his return to the lineup on Thursday in a 100-83 win over Philadelphia.  The fact that the Jazz have posted a 20-13 record this season with Hill missing so much time just shows how good this team really is.  They're going to be very dangerous moving forward.

The Phoenix Suns are just 2-6 SU & 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They  haven't even been competitive as five of those six losses came by 13 points or more.  And the Suns are in a letdown spot off a huge home win over the Raptors on Thursday, but that was an awful spot for Toronto after playing the Warriors the night before.

This has been a one-sided series to say the least.  Utah is 5-0 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings, winning by a whopping 17.2 points per game on average.  The domination continues today as Utah rolls to a blowout home victory.  Bet the Jazz Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Florida State +9

The Florida State Seminoles are one of the top teams in the country in my opinion.  They are off to a 13-1 start this season.  They had a bad loss to Temple on a neutral court, but they've also beating some good teams in Illinois (by 11), Minnesota (by 8), George Washington (by 19), Florida (by 5) and Wake Forest (by 16).

I think Virginia comes in overvalued here due to back-to-back road wins and covers against both California and Louisville.  Well, California is down a notch this year, and Louisville was in a letdown spot off its huge win over Kentucky in its previous game.

We've seen Virginia actually play better on the road than at home this year.  The Cavaliers lost to West Virginia 57-66 at home, and they barely escaped with a 63-61 victory over Ohio State as 12-point favorites.  I think the Seminoles are good enough to stay within 9 points here and possibly pull off the upset.

Florida State is 10-1 ATS off two or more consecutive unders over the last two seasons.  The Seminoles are 10-1 ATS versus poor foul drawing teams who attempt 18 or fewer free throws per game over the last three years.  The Cavaliers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5.  Roll with Florida State Saturday.

20* Villanova/Creighton Battle of Unbeatens on Creighton +1

The Creighton Bluejays are one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  They are off to a 13-0 start this season and have consistently been undervalued, going 9-3 ATS in their lined games.  I have backed them for a handful of them, and I'm going to take them here as they still aren't getting the respect they deserve.

Of course the defending champion Villanova Wildcats are going to be getting a ton of respect from the betting public.  That is the case here as they are road favorites.  But the Wildcats aren't as good as they were last year, and they just survived a 68-65 scare at home against DePaul as 24.5-point favorites on Wednesday.

The Bluejays have beaten some good teams along the way.  They beat Washington State, NC State and Ole Miss on neutral courts, Nebraska and Arizona State in true road games by 15 and 11 points, respectively.  They also beat a very good Wisconsin team by 12 in their toughest home game this year.  They are battle-tested and ready to show Villanova that they are the team to beat in the Big East this year.

Creighton is 12-3 ATS when playing only its 2nd game in 8 days over the last two seasons.  The Bluejays are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  The Wildcats are 1-5 ATS in their last six Big East games.  The Bluejays are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 home games.  It will be rocking today at Creighton, and the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Creighton Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Wake Forest +1

Wake Forest has taken a big step forward under Danny Manning this season.  The Demon Deacons are 9-4 this season while playing an absolutely brutal schedule.  Their four losses have all come on the road to the likes of Villanova, Northwestern, Xavier and Florida State.  They were in three of those games down to the wire.

But the Demon Deacons are 5-0 at home this season and winning by 20.8 points per game.  I just backed them recently in a 110-76 home win over LSU as 11-point favorites.  They have won all five of their home games by double-digits this year.

Clemson is a quality team, but this team hasn't been tested on the road.  The Tigers have played just one true road game, which was a 62-60 win at South Carolina in which they trailed basically the entire way before pulling it out in the closing seconds.  I don't believe they will be so fortunate in this one.

Clemson is 17-32 ATS in its last 49 road games after covering four or five of its last six against the spread.  The Demon Deacons are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games following a straight up loss.  Wake Forest is 13-4 ATS in the last 17 meetings.

Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CLEMSON) - after beating the spread by 36 or more points total in their last five games are 79-44 (64.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on home teams as an underdog or pick (WAKE FOREST) - off a road loss against a conference rival against opponent off a home win scoring 85 or more points are 57-26 (68.7%) ATS over the last five years.  Take Wake Forest Saturday.

15* Bulls/Pacers NBA Early ANNIHILATOR on Indiana -4

The Indiana Pacers are undervalued right now after going 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  All four losses came by 7 points or less, and three of them came on the road.  But the Pacers are 11-5 at home this season and are primed to bounce back here.

Adding to the Pacers' motivation is the fact that they just lost to the Bulls 85-90 on the road on Monday.  So, they are going to be out for revenge.  Paul George voiced his frustration with the officiating in that game as the Bulls shot 28 free throws compared to just 10 for the Pacers.  Don't be surprised if the refs favor the Pacers in the rematch.

The Bulls haven't exactly been world beaters of late and are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers here.  They are 3-6 SU & 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall with two of their victories coming by a combined 7 points.  One was a 101-99 home victory over lowly Brooklyn as 9.5-point favorites on Wednesday.

Indiana has won 33 of its last 45 home meetings with Chicago.  The Bulls are 1-6 ATS in their last seven trips to Indiana.  The home team is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  Chicago is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following a win.  Indiana is 23-8 ATS when playing four or less games in 10 days over the last three seasons.  Bet the Pacers Friday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on UMass -1.5

The UMass Minutemen are off to a 10-3 start this season.  They have been an undervalued commodity all year, which is evident by their 6-1 ATS mark.  And now they're only laying 1.5 points at home to St. Bonaventure, once again lacking the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.

UMass has gone 8-1 at home this season.  And their three losses all came down to the wire as they could easily be 13-0.  They lost by 2 at Ole Miss as 11-point dogs, by 6 at Providence as 8-point dogs and by 3 at home to UCF as 4-point dogs, covering the spread in all three defeats.

St. Bonaventure just lost to Canisius 101-106 as 11.5-point home favorites last time out.  They have also lost to the likes of UNC-Wilmington and Arkansas-Little Rock this season.  They are just 8-4 on the season and are clearly down a couple notches from last year.  They really don't have a significant win yet.  And they've only played one true road game, which was a 6-point win at Hofstra.

UMass is 9-1 ATS after having won four of its last five games over the past three seasons.  St. Bonaventure is 0-6 ATS after scoring 75 points or more in five straight games over the last two seasons.  The Bonnies are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  The Minutemen are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  Take UMass Friday.

15* CBB Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on San Diego +11.5

The San Diego Toreros are a much-improved team this season.  They have gone 7-5 SU & 6-2 ATS in all games this year.  And four of their five losses have come to elite competition, and they covered the spread in a couple of those.

They lost by 10 at San Diego State as 19-point dogs and by 20 at UCLA as 27.5-point dogs.  After a 2-5 start to the season, the Toreros have gone a perfect 5-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  They have won outright as underdogs three times during this stretch, including twice on the road.

San Francisco is coming off a huge tournament in which it got to play Utah, Illinois State and San Diego State all on neutral courts.  It culminated in a 48-62 loss to San Diego State on Christmas Day, which gives these teams a common opponent.  San Diego lost by only 10 at San Diego State.

One thing that has stuck with me the last few years is that San Francisco has been a great road team, and a terrible home team.  The Dons are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games, and 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite.  The Toreros are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five road games.  The road team is 14-6-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings in this series.  Roll with San Diego Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies -1.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are hungry for a victory after losing two straight and five of their last seven.  They are now undervalued here as only 1.5-point home favorites here because of their recent losing ways, but this is still one of the better teams in the Western Conference at 20-14 on the season.

It's the perfect storm really because the Oklahoma City Thunder coming in overvalued due to going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They have mostly feasted on some poor opponents as their last six games have come against the Suns, Hawks, Pelicans, Celtics, Timberwolves and Heat.  Now they take a step up in class here tonight.

The Grizzlies have been a thorn in the Thunder's side, winning four of the last seven meetings, and all of those were with Kevin Durant on the team.  And home-court advantage has meant a lot in this series of late as well as they home team is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The favorite it 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings, and the home team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. 

Oklahoma City is 3-13 ATS as a road underdog of 3 points or less over the last three seasons.  Memphis is 11-1 ATS in home games off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Grizzlies are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 vs. Western Conference opponents.  Memphis is 4-0 ATS in its last four Thursday games.  Bet the Grizzlies Thursday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Auburn -1.5

The Auburn Tigers continue flying under the radar this season.  Bruce Pearl is doing a tremendous job with the Tigers and has them off to a 10-2 start this season.  They have been competitive in every game outside of a neutral court loss to Purdue.

But they've beaten the likes of Texas Tech 67-65 as 6.5-point dogs, UAB 74-70 as 4-point dogs, Oklahoma 74-70 as 4.5-point dogs and UConn 70-67 as 3.5-point road dogs.  So, they are battle-tested as well and certainly haven't benefited from a cake schedule.

Georgia is just 8-4 this season.  Three of those losses came by double-digits.  The Bulldogs are 1-2 in true road games with a 10-point loss at Clemson, a win at down Georgia Tech, and a 7-point loss at Oakland despite being 2.5-point favorites.  The Bulldogs are battle-tested as well, but they have failed every test when taking a step up in class. I'm not sure why they continue to get so much respect from oddsmakers here as only 1.5-point road dogs.

Auburn has gone 4-3 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven meetings with Georgia, and this is the best team the Tigers have had in a long time.  Auburn is 10-1 ATS in home games off two consecutive non-conference games over the last three seasons.  The Tigers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as a home favorite.  Take Auburn Thursday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa +14.5

The Iowa Hawkeyes come into the Big Ten season undervalued.  They started the season so ugly that they were going to be undervalued heading into conference action.  And they still are despite turning their season around and playing their best basketball of the season right now.

Indeed, the Hawkeyes are 5-0 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  That includes a 14-point win over Iowa State as 6-point home dogs and a 23-point win over Northern Iowa as 2.5-point dogs on a neutral.  Now the Hawkeyes are catching 13.5 points against Purdue, which is simply too much.

The Boilermakers are a quality team and one of the best in the conference, but they have struggled against Iowa.  In fact, the Hawkeyes won both meetings last season, winning 83-71 as 2.5-point home favorites and 70-63 as 9-point road dogs.  Iowa has won four of the last five meetings in this series overall.  Bet Iowa Wednesday.

15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans Pelicans -5

We'll gladly fade the Los Angeles Clippers, who are short-handed right now playing without their two best players in Chris Paul and Blake Griffin, and even J.J. Redick is doubtful with a hamstring injury.  The results haven't been good for the Clippers without these guys.

They have now lost three in a row to some very bad teams.  They lost 88-90 at home to the Mavericks, 102-111 on the road to the Lakers and 102-106 at home to the Nuggets.  Now this will really be their first true road game without them because they played the Lakers inside Staples obviously.

The Pelicans are certainly a 'play on' team moving forward.  They have won three of their last four coming in, and it's no coincidence as it has come during the point in which the Pelicans have been at their healthiest all year.  They have their three-headed monster of Anthony Davis, Jrue Holiday and Tyreke Evans together for the first time all year.  They are clicking on offense, scoring at least 100 points in eight of their last nine contests.

The Clippers are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games playing on 1 days' rest.  Los Angeles is 0-4 ATS in its last four road games.  The Pelicans are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  The Clippers are 4-13 ATS in the last 17 meetings in New Orleans.  Take the Pelicans Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -3

We are getting the Detroit Pistons at a cheap price Wednesday because they have lost five of their last six coming in. It was five straight before a 106-90 home win over Cleveland on Monday.  The Pistons are now 9-7 SU & 10-6 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 5.4 points per game.

Milwaukee is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers in this one.  The Bucks have struggled on the road all season, going 4-8 SU & 4-8 ATS in 12 games away from home.

The Pistons have owned the Bucks lately, going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings.  And the home team has dominated this series of late as well, going 9-2 straight up in the last 11 meetings.

Detroit is 27-13 ATS as a home favorite over the last two seasons.  The Pistons are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games after having lost four of their last five games coming in.  The Bucks are 1-8 ATS in their last nine road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Bet the Pistons Wednesday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Wake Forest +8.5

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  Danny Manning has his players in place in his third season on the job, and the Demon Deacons have rewarded him with a 9-3 start to the season.

The three losses were all understandable as they lost on a neutral to No. 1 Villanova, on the road to Northwestern (by 7) and on the road to Xavier (by 4).  Following that loss to Xavier, I backed them in a blowout 110-76 home victory over LSU as 10-point favorites.  I'll back them again here as 8.5-point road dogs as they are battle-tested and ready to give Florida State a run for its money in the ACC opener.

I think the Seminoles come into this game overvalued due to their 12-1 start this season.  But their schedule hasn't been nearly as tough as that of Wake Forest.  They haven't played a true road game yet, and their four neutral court games have come against Temple (lost by 3), Illinois, George Washington and Manhattan.  Heck, they only beat Samford 76-68 as 22-point home favorites last time out, and I was on Samford in that game.

Wake Forest is 15-6 ATS when playing on its 2nd game in 8 days over the last three seasons.  Florida State is 15-36 ATS in its last 51 games after having won eight or more of its last 10 games.  The Demon Deacons are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Roll with Wake Forest Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Miami Heat +3

The Miami Heat are showing great value as home underdogs to the Oklahoma City Thunder here tonight.  They come in undervalued after losing four of their last five games, but all four losses came by 10 points or fewer so they were competitive in all of them.  And the Heat have quietly gone 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.

The Heat have had some extra time off here over Christmas.  They haven't played since December 23rd, so they will be giving their best effort after having the past three days off.  The Thunder played on Christmas Day in a home win over Minnesota and don't have that same luxury.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series recently as the home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Thunder haven't exactly been world beaters on the road this season, going 6-7 ATS while giving up 108.4 points per game away from home.

Oklahoma City is 16-29 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons.  The Thunder are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 road games after having won four of their last five games coming in.  The Heat are 19-8 ATS in home games with a total set of 200 or more over the last two seasons.

Plays on home underdogs (MIAMI) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days are 113-66 (63.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after three or more consecutive overs, an excellent offensive team (102-plus PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG) are 30-8 (78.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Heat Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Maryland -3

This is a very generous price to get the Maryland Terrapins tonight in their Big Ten opener.  The Terrapins are off to a 12-1 start this season, and while they're down a notch from last season, they still have loads of talent.  And they continue to be overlooked by oddsmakers.

The Illinois Fighting Illini are improved at 10-3 on the season.  They have won six straight coming in and are getting too much respect for it.  When they took a step up in class against WVU (lost by 32) and Florida State (lost by 11), they didn't fare well.  And they also lost at home to Winthrop earlier this season.

But the biggest reason I like Maryland here is because Illinois hasn't played a true road game all season.  That's right, it's December 27th and they haven't tasted what a hostile road atmosphere feels like.  I think they'll be in over their heads here against the Terrapins, who beat Illinois 81-55 at home last season.

Illinois is 10-22 ATS as an underdog over the last three seasons.  The Fighting Illini are 1-9 ATS in road games vs. good free throw shooting teams who make 72% of their attempts or better over the last three seasons.  The Fighting Illini are 17-35-1 ATS in their last 53 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5.  The Terrapins are 11-5-2 ATS in their last 18 games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5.  Roll with Maryland Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver Nuggets -1

The Denver Nuggets want revenge from a 102-119 loss at Los Angeles just six days ago on December 20th.  They were in a tough spot that day as they were playing the second of a back-to-back.  They proceeded to blow an 8-point lead in the final two minutes against the Hawks their next time out, so it's safe to say they will be highly motivated here.

This time around, it's the Clippers in the tough spot.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days here.  They have lost to the Mavericks 88-90 and the Lakers 102-111 in their last two games, and a big reason for that is all the injuries they are dealing with right now.

Chris Paul is expected to miss this game after sitting out against the Lakers.  Blake Griffin remains out, and J.J. Redick just suffered a hamstring injury against the Lakers and is doubtful.  The short-handed, tired Clippers have no chance of hanging with the motivated, well-rested Nuggets who will be playing on two days' rest tonight.  Take the Nuggets Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +13

The Phoenix Suns just played the Houston Rockets five days ago on December 21st in a 111-125 home loss.  The Rockets shot 18-of-38 from 3-point range and aren't likely to hit at that kind of clip again.  I look for the Suns to be out for revenge in this rematch just five days later.

And the Suns were 6-point home dogs in the first meeting, and now they're 13-point dogs in the rematch in Houston. That is a ton of extra value because the Suns actually tend to play better on the road because they have a very small home-court advantage.  And they are definitely better ATS on the road because they are consistently catching big numbers.

Plays against home favorites (HOUSTON) - after allowing 100 points or more four straight games against opponent after three straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 36-13 (73.5%) ATS since 1996.  The Rockets are 0-6 ATS in their last six games playing on 2 days rest.

Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series.  The road team is a perfect 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Suns won 124-115 as 12.5-point dogs and 117-102 as 7.5-point dogs in their last two trips to Houston.  Phoenix is 22-7 ATS in its last 29 trips to Houston dating back further.  Bet the Suns Monday.

20* Cavs/Warriors NBA Finals Rematch on Golden State -2.5

The Golden State Warriors have had this game circled on their calendars every since they blew a 3-1 lead in the NBA Finals to the Cavaliers.  They are going to want this game more, and I expect one of their best performances of the season because of it.

The difference in the rematch is now they have Kevin Durant, who has made the Warriors that much more dangerous.  They are off to a 27-4 start to the season and have been playing tremendous of late, winning seven straight, including four straight on the road.

I think the Cavaliers come in overvalued due to four straight victories themselves.  However, those four have come against the likes of the Lakers, Nets and Bucks (twice).  The Cavs will be without JR Smith for this one, and they'll certainly miss his shooting against the Warriors here.

Golden State is 10-1 ATS in road games off a win by 6 points or less over the last two seasons.  The Warriors are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games when playing on one days' rest.  The Cavaliers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven Sunday games.  Bet the Warriors Sunday.

15* Celtics/Knicks ESPN Early Riser on UNDER 211.5

I think both the Boston Celtics and New York Knicks will be sleep-walking through the first part of this game Sunday that's set for a 12:00 EST tip.  Both offenses will struggle in the first half, which will help keep this total UNDER the posted number of 211.5.

Recent head-to-head history suggests that this number has been inflated.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with combined scores of 209 or fewer in five of those contests.  They have averaged 201.7 combined points per game in their last six meetings, which is roughly 10 points less than this 211.5-point total.

Boston is 14-4 UNDER off a home loss over the last two seasons.  New York is 13-4 UNDER in Sunday games over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 9-1 in Celtics last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 25-9 in Celtics last 34 games playing on one days' rest.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Knicks last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 29-14 in Knicks last 43 games playing on two days' rest.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Denver Nuggets -3.5

The Atlanta Hawks and Denver Nuggets are two teams headed in opposite directions.  The Hawks are just 5-13 SU & 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games overall.  They just cannot seem to get on track, and they are getting way too much respect here as only 3.5-point road dogs.  They are playing without their center in Dwight Howard on Friday, too.

The Nuggets have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  All three wins came at home by double-digits, while the lone loss came on the road at the Los Angeles Clippers on the 2nd of a back-to-back.  That was a tough spot and an understandable loss.

But the reason the Nuggets are playing so much better now is because they are as healthy as they've been all season.  There is no team with more depth than this Nuggets squad.  Gary Harris recently returned to the lineup and has provided a huge spark, averaging 12.8 points on 51.8% shooting, including 46.2% from 3-point range in just nine games this year.  The Nuggets have a ridiculous 10 players averaging at least 9.0 points per game, so they don't miss a beat when their bench comes in.

Home-court advantage has been huge between these teams.  The home team is 8-1 straight up in the last nine meetings.  Denver is 17-3 ATS after allowing 100 points or more in five straight games over the last three seasons.  The Hawks are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games playing on 1 days' rest.  Atlanta is 0-5 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Nuggets Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Memphis Grizzlies +3.5

The Houston Rockets are way overvalued right now due to going 11-1 in their last 12 games overall.  Now they're being asked to lay 3.5 points on the road to one of the most underrated teams in the NBA in the Memphis Grizzlies tonight.

The Rockets just lost their starting center in Clint Capela two games ago with a broken fibula.  He averages 11.8 points, 8.0 rebounds and 1.6 blocks per game.  They really missed him in a loss to the Spurs the other night, but they didn't miss him against the Suns, who are guard-oriented.

Capela's absence will really be in issue against the Grizzlies, who play their 'grit and grind', inside-out style.  Marc Gasol averages 20.1 points per game this season and will have a huge game in the paint.  The same can be said for Zach Randolph.

And the Grizzlies are now as healthy as they've been all season with the recent returns of Mike Conley, James Ennis, Vince Carter and Chandler Parsons.  They had all of these guys available against the Pistons on Wednesday, and they won 98-86 as 6-point road dogs despite playing the second of a back-to-back off an OT game.  It was a gutsy effort to say the least, and they will want to put the Rockets in their place tonight.

The Rockets rely more on the 3-pointer than any team in the NBA.  But the Grizzlies defend the 3-pointer better than most.  They allow an average of 9 made 3-pointers on 27 attempts per game at a 33.5% clip.  The Grizzlies only give up 93.9 points per game at home this year.  They rank 1st in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 99.4 points per 100 possessions.

Memphis is 32-12 ATS in its last 44 home games off a road win by 10 points or more.  The Rockets are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 trips to Memphis.  The Grizzlies are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. Western Conference opponents.  Roll with the Grizzlies Friday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -3

The Charlotte Hornets are in a great spot here.  They have had two days off since beating the Lakers at home on Tuesday, and they will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days here.  They will be fresh and ready to go, and they don't play again until Monday, so they will be putting a lot into this game.

The Chicago Bulls are broken right now.  They are just 3-7 SU & 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall, yet they are getting massive respect from oddsmakers here as only 3-point dogs.  They rank dead last in the NBA in 3-point shooting, and they are also dead last in 4th quarter scoring.  They simply cannot get easy buckets.  And nothing comes easy against the Hornets, who rank 6th in the NBA in defensive efficiency.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team is 5-1 SU in the last six meetings.  The only exception was a 102-96 road win by the Hornets last season.  The Hornets are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three home meetings with the Bulls, winning by an average of 17.3 points per game.  The Bulls haven't even come close to beating them, losing all three games by double-digits.  This is a very cheap price for the home team.  Take the Hornets Friday.

15* Auburn/UConn ESPN 2 Early ANNIHILATOR on Connecticut -3.5

This is a great spot to fade the Auburn Tigers.  They are coming off a huge 74-70 upset win over Oklahoma as 4.5-point dogs on Wednesday night.  Now they have had just one day to get ready for UConn, and they this is clearly a letdown spot for them off that big win over the Sooners.

UConn has had four days off to get ready for Auburn after beating North Florida 80-59 on Sunday.  The Huskies will be ready to go, and they are an undervalued team right now because they are just 5-5 on the season.  They got off to a slow start but are playing much better of late, beating Syracuse 52-50 as 8-point dogs and narrowly losing at Ohio State 60-64 as 9.5-point dogs.

Auburn comes in overvalued off that win over Oklahoma that is part of its 9-2 start to the season.  But the Tigers have only played on true road game this season, which was a narrow 70-74 win at UAB.  This will clearly be the toughest atmosphere that the Tigers have played in this season, and I don't expect their young team to handle it very well, especially with only one day to prepare for the Huskies.

UConn is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 games as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points.  The Tigers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following an ATS win.  The Huskies are 7-2 ATS in their last nine vs. SEC opponents.  Take Connecticut Friday.

20* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Wake Forest -10

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  They are off to an 8-3 start this year with their three losses coming to Villanova, Northwestern and Xavier all on the road.  After losing to Xavier just 65-69 as 10-point dogs last time out, I look for them to bounce back with a blowout home victory against LSU tonight.

Wake Forest has played a road-heavy schedule and is certainly battle-tested at this point.  But the Demon Deacons have taken care of business when at home, going 4-0 while outscoring teams by 17.5 points per game on average.  John Collins (17.5 ppg, 10.8 rpg) is an absolute beast, and Bryant Crawford (13.7 ppg, 5.8 apg) and Keyshawn Woods (12.9 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 3.0 apg) have taken their games up a notch this year.

LSU is certainly a rebuilding team after all it lost last year.  The Tigers are off to an 8-2 start this season, but seven of their eight wins came at home against suspect competition.  They have played three neutral site games, beating Old Dominion 66-60, but getting blown out by both Wichita State (47-82) and VCU (74-85).  This will be the Tigers' first true road game of the season, and I don't expect it to go well for them.

LS is 4-16 ATS off a home win over the last two season.  The Tigers are 2-9 ATS in all road games over the last two seasons.  LSU is 1-10 ATS in road games versus good teams who outscore opponents by 4-plus points per game over the last two seasons.  The Tigers are 0-6 ATS in road games after two or more consecutive wins over the last two years.  Bet Wake Forest Thursday.

15* NBA PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Knicks -5

The New York Knicks are undervalued right now because they have lost three of their last four games coming in.  But all three losses came on the road in the final three games of a 5-game trip, and they bounced back with a 118-111 home victory over Indiana in their first game back in New York on Tuesday.

There is an energy surrounding this Knicks team this year because they are finally relevant.  And the fans have shown up to show their support, which has aided them at home.  In fact, the Knicks are now 10-4 SU & 10-4 ATS at home this season.  This is a very short price for them to be laying.

I think the price is short because while the Knicks are undervalued right now, the Magic are overvalued due to going 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They have been beating up on some bad teams lately with their last three wins coming against the Heat, Nets and Hawks.  They were beaten by the Clippers and Raptors (by 30) in their two losses over their last five contests, both coming at home.

The Knicks are 11-2 ATS after allowing 110 points or more this season.  Orlando is 4-13 ATS in road games versus teams that win 51% to 60% of their games over the last two seasons.  The Knicks are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall, including 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games.  The Magic are 4-11-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings, including 2-6 ATS in their last eight trips to New York.  Take the Knicks Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +7

The Houston Rockets just had their 10-game winning streak snapped with a 100-102 home loss to the San Antonio Spurs last night.  They blew a 13-point lead in the final five minutes.  I think off that deflating loss that ended their streak, they won't show up at all tonight in Phoenix.

The Rockets are going to be a 'play against' team in the short-term because they are overvalued due to that winning streak.  Not only that, but they are now without their center Clint Capela due to a broken fibula suffered two games ago.  His injury is getting overlooked.  Capela averages 11.8 points, 8.0 rebounds and 1.6 blocks per game.  The Rockets will miss him because he does all the dirty work inside.

This is also a bad spot for the Rockets because they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, their 4th game in 6 days and their 8th game in 13 days.  The Suns had yesterday off and come in undervalued after going 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.

The Suns are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 games following a straight up loss.  Phoenix is 20-6-1 ATS in its last 27 games following an ATS loss.  The Rockets are 15-31 ATS in their last 46 meetings with the Suns.  The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Houston is 14-25 ATS in its last 39 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points.  Bet the Suns Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -4

The Chicago Bulls are undervalued due to losing six of their last nine games overall.  But they turned the corner with a 113-82 home win over Detroit on Monday, and I look for another big effort from them here tonight as only 4-point home favorites over the Washington Wizards.  This will only be their 2nd game in 5 days so they're rested and ready to go.

Conversely, the Wizards come in overvalued due to going 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  All five victories came at home, but they are 0-2 in their two road games at Miami and Indiana.  The Wizards are now 2-9 SU & 4-7 ATS in 11 road games on the season.

The home team is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings.  The Bulls have won three of their last four home meetings with the Wizards all by at least 5 points.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings as well.

Chicago is 70-47 ATS in its last 117 home games after failing to cover four of its last five games against the spread coming in.  The Wizards are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Take the Bulls Wednesday.