15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Spurs/Rockets OVER 226.5

Both the San Antonio Spurs and Houston Rockets are dead nuts OVER teams and this is a very low total for a game involving these two teams.  The Spurs rank 5th in the NBA in pace this season while the Rockets rank 12th.  The Spurs rank dead last (30th) in defensive efficiency while the Rockets ranks 27th.

The Spurs and Rockets have combined for at least 227 points in each of their last five meetings and an average of 239.4 combined points per game in those five meetings with none going to OT.  Thats roughly 13 points more than this 226.5-point total, so we are getting a ton of value on the OVER tonight.  Roll with the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Portland Trail Blazers -6.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are without four of their best players tonight in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (31.2 PPG, 5.8 APG), Josh Giddey (14.7 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 5.5 APG), Robinson-Earl (8.5 PPG, 5.0 RPG) and Bazley (5.9 PPG) tonight.  They stand no chance of being competitive with the Portland Trail Blazers as a result.

The Blazers are playing some of their best basketball of the season right now going 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Damian Lillard is back healthy and they are humming on offense scoring 116 or more points in six of those eight games.

The Thunder did pull off the upset as 11-point home dogs to the Grizzlies last time out as the Grizzlies took them lightly, and JA Morant was ejected in the first half.  That result is keeping this spread lower than it should be.  A lot of times teams can have one good performance in their first game without their stars, but then it progressively gets worse.  I don't expect the Blazers to take them lightly after seeing that Memphis result.

Plays against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (OKC) - after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at halftime are 52.20 (72.2%) ATS since 1996.  The Blazers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games when their opponent scored 100 or more points in their previous game.  Portland is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 road games.  The Blazers are 7-0 ATS vs. teams that force 15 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Take the Blazers Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Hornets/Nuggets OVER 235.5

The Charlotte Hornets were already a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 9th in the NBA in pace and 26th in defensive efficiency on the season.  And that's even without their best player in La'Melo Ball (21.6 PPG, 7.0 APG) for all but five games this season.  Well, Ball is back now and the Hornets will play at an even faster pace with him and be a much better offensive team while still being terrible on defense.

The Denver Nuggets are on OVER team because they are so good on offense, ranking 2nd in offensive efficiency.  Only the Boston Celtics have been better.  The Nuggets have really slipped defensively this season ranking 28th in defensive efficiency.  Denver's last seven games have all seen at least 225 combined points.

Charlotte is a perfect 9-0 OVER as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points this season and we're seeing 242.8 combined points per game in this spot.  The OVER is 9-1 in Hornets last 10 road games following a home loss by 10 points or more.  The OVER is 9-0 in Hornets last nine road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Night Line Mistake on Detroit Pistons +8.5

It's time to 'sell high' on the Brooklyn Nets.  They have gone 9-1 SU in their last 10 games overall but eight of their last nine wins have come by single-digits.  They have simply been fortunate in close games, and I think this one goes down to the wire against the Detroit Pistons, too.

It's time to 'buy low' on the Pistons.  They have lost four of their last five games against a very tough schedule with road losses to the Pelicans by 6 and the Grizzlies by 11 as well as home losses to the Lakers by 7 and Kings by 9.  They also went on the road and upset the Hornets.  They are now catching too many points at home today to the Nets.

Brooklyn is 14-30 ATS in its last 44 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points.  The Nets are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 games following an ATS win.  The Pistons are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss.  Detroit is 8-2-2 ATS in its last 12 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Pistons Sunday.

15* Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Knicks/Pacers OVER 226.5

Any game involving the Indiana Pacers with a total of less than 230 I'm going to take my first look at the OVER.  They are dead nuts OVER team ranking 4th in the NBA in pace and 23rd in defensive efficiency.  

The Pacers just combined for 230 points with the Cavaliers and 244 points with the Warriors in their last two games.  In fact, they have combined for 230 or more points with their opponents in five of their last six games overall.

The New York Knicks are rolling on offense right now and playing a lot faster.  They have scored at least 112 points in five consecutive games going in.  They will stay hot against one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA in the Pacers today.

The OVER is 35-15-1 in Pacers last 51 home games.  The OVER is 28-11 in Pacers last 39 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Magic/Celtics UNDER 223.5

I love this spot for an UNDER bet.  The Magic and Celtics will be playing for the 2nd game in 3 days.  Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games, and I think we get a defensive struggle here Sunday with this sleepy start time with a 3:10 EST tip this afternoon.

The Magic beat the Celtics 117-109 for 226 combined points on Friday.  That was even with Jayson Tatum scoring 31 points for the Celtics.  Well, Tatum won't play today due to personal reasons, and the Celtics will have a hard time scoring without him.  Plus, two key defenders in Robert Williams and Al Horford just returned for the Celtics, so they will rely on defense in this one.

Orlando is a very good defensive team with a ton of length.  The Magic have allowed 111 or fewer points in five of their last six games overall.  Holding the Celtics with Tatum to 109 points is no small feat, and I don't see Boston getting more than 109 in the rematch, either.  I expect Boston to defend Orlando much better than they did in that first meeting, too.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +10.5

The Orlando Magic have quietly gone 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall with five upset victories outright.  They only lost by 7 to the Bucks as 10-point dogs, beat the Clippers outright as 6.5-point dogs, beat the Raptors by 4 and 12 outright as 8 and 7-point dogs, beat the Hawks by 11 outright as 3-point dogs and beat the Celtics outright as 13.5-point dogs.

Yes, the Celtics will now be out for revenge today, but they shouldn't be 10.5-point favorites over the Magic.  They can get their revenge and still not cover this inflated number.  Plus, Jayson Tatum scored 31 points in that first meeting on Friday and they still lost by 8.  Well, now the Celtics won't have Tatum today as he'll be out for personal reasons.  There's no way the Celtics should be double-digit favorites over the Magic without Tatum and with how well the Magic are playing right now.

The Celtics are overvalued due to having the best record in the NBA and it has shown of late as they are 1-3 SU & 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  They lost by 16 at Golden State, by 20 at the Clippers and by 8 at home to the Magic.  Their lone win was a miracle as they erased a 13-point deficit in the final four minutes to beat the Lakers by 4 in OT.  Bet the Magic Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Western Michigan/Iowa State UNDER 130

The Iowa State Cyclones are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They rank 257th in adjusted tempo and 13th in adjusted defense this season.  They are holding opponents to just 56.9 points per game and 38.5% shooting, holding them to 17.9 points per game less than their season averages.  They are only scoring 70.7 points per game, too.

Western Michigan plays at an even slower pace than Iowa State, ranking 260th in adjusted tempo.  They are a terrible offensive team ranking 281st in adjusted offense.  They are averaging 3.5 points per game less than their opponents allow on the season.

The UNDER is 14-2 in Iowa State's last 16 games overall, including 9-1 this season.  The UNDER is 9-0 in Cyclones last nine games following an ATS win.  The UNDER is 15-4-2 in Cyclones last 21 Sunday games.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Broncos last four games overall.  This is early 1:00 EST start time which will have both teams half asleep as well, which favors the UNDER.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* Tennessee/Arizona ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on Arizona -3.5

The Arizona Wildcats are 9-1 this season with wins over Cincinnati, San Diego State, Creighton and Indiana all on neutrals.  Their lone loss came on the road.  The Wildcats are 5-0 at home this season and winning by 27.4 points per game.

Now they host a Tennessee team that is also 9-1 but hasn't played a true road game yet.  I always like fading teams when they play their first true road game.  It will be a tremendous atmosphere and home-court advantage tonight for the Wildcats with a rowdy crowd with this 10:30 EST tip.  It will easily be the toughest atmosphere the Vols will have played in this season.

Plays on home teams (Arizona) - after covering as a double-digit favorite, in a game involving two teams that win more than 80% of their games on the season are 48-24 (66.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  G James (8.8 PPG, 4.8 RPG) and F Aidoo (4.3 PPG, 4.9 RPG) are both questionable to play for the Vols tonight as well.  Roll with Arizona Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on SE Missouri State +24

This is a terrible spot for the Iowa Hawkeyes.  They have played their last three games against Duke, Iowa State and Wisconsin.  They won't be nearly as motivated to beat SE Missouri State as they were those three teams, and they will need to be motivated to cover this big of a number Saturday.

Making matters worse for the Hawkeyes is that they will be without their best player in Kris Murray (19.4 PPG, 10.1 RPG) and could be without Ahron Ulis (6.4 PPG), who is questionable.  They just want to get in and get out with a win here Saturday and won't be concerned with getting margin.

We've seen SE Missouri State hang tough against some very good teams this season.  They only lost by 7 at Missouri as 21.5-point dogs a few games back.  They upset South Florida outright as 11-point road dogs, upset Evansville outright as 2-point road dogs and only lost by 13 at Bradley.  They have done their best work in true road games.

The Redhawks are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall.  The Redhawks are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet SE Missouri State Saturday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Memphis Grizzlies -6.5

Nobody is playing better than the Memphis Grizzlies right now.  They are 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall with all seven wins coming by 8 points or more.  That includes a 41-point win over Milwaukee, a 25-point win over Atlanta and a 21-point win over Oklahoma City, which is tonight's opponent.

The spot really favors the Grizzlies as they will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days and are fully healthy with the exception of Desmond Bane, who has been out for a few weeks now and they haven't really missed him due to all their depth.  This is a terrible spot for the Thunder playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in four days.

The Thunder come in on a four-game losing streak and are dealing with a ton of injuries right now.  Robinson-Earl (8.5 PPG, 5.0 RPG) remains out, and Bazley (5.9 PPG) and Dort (13.6 PPG, 4.4 RPG) are both questionable.  The Thunder lost 110-112 to the short-handed Timberwolves last night who were playing without Towns, Russell and Gobert.  

That game went down to the wire so their starters played big minutes, meaning they will be even more fatigued than normal in this 2nd of a back-to-back.  Oklahoma City is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games when playing in zero rest.  Memphis is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Bet the Grizzlies Saturday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Blazers/Rockets OVER 227

Damian Lillard is back healthy now to go with Simons and Grant and the Blazers have been a dead nuts OVER team since his return.  They are 5-0 OVER in their last five games overall with combined scores of 241, 242, 245, 240 and 240 points.  They have scored at least 116 points in six of their last seven games overall.

The Blazers lost in a 110-130 blowout to the Mavericks last night and have now allowed at least 111 points in 13 of their last 14 games overall.  But the blowout loss allowed their starters to rest as Lillard played 24 minutes, Simons 23, Grant 20, Hart 21 and Nurkic 21.  They will still be fresh and able to get up and down with the Rockets, who like to push the pace.

The Rockets are a dead nuts OVER team.  They like to run and rank 27th in defensive efficiency.  And when these teams get together a shootout usually ensues.  The Blazers and Rockets have combined for at least 231 points in three of their last four meetings.

Portland is a perfect 7-0 OVER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points and we're seeing 235.8 combined points per game in this spot.  Portland beat Houston 125-111 as a 4-point favorite for 236 combined points in their first meeting this season.  The OVER is 19-7 in Rockets last 26 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Milwaukee Bucks -5

I love the spot for the Milwaukee Bucks tonight.  They are coming off their worst loss of the season at Memphis on Thursday.  They were coming off a 128-111 home win over the Warriors and I think they simply had a letdown after beating the defending champs.

But now the Bucks are back home where they are 13-3 SU & 11-5 ATS this season outscoring opponents by 9.0 points per game.  And they are expected to get star PG Jrue Holiday (19.1 PPG, 7.4 APG, 5.3 RPG) back from illness after sitting out the last two games.

The Utah Jazz are just 1-6 SU in their last seven road games with five losses by 5 points or more.  They are getting too much respect after two consecutive home wins over the Pelicans.  But now they are back on the road here and should be much more than 5-point road underdogs to the Bucks.  

It's time to 'buy low' on Milwaukee off a blowout loss and 'sell high' on Utah after two consecutive upset home wins.  The Bucks will come back motivated and will have 100% focus for this one, which isn't good news for the Jazz.  Roll with the Bucks Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Marshall -3

Marshall won nine consecutive games before finally losing 67-75 at UNC-Greensboro last time out.  I think they'll be refocused with Toledo coming to town this weekend.  Marshall is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by 17.7 points per game.

Toledo has some really bad losses this season and they cannot be trusted.  They lost by 7 at George Mason, by 11 to ECU and by 12 to Missouri-KC.  They also just beat Canisius by 1 as 17-point home favorites last time out.  Toledo ranks just 228th in adjusted defense while Marshall ranks 98th.

Marshall is 6-0 ATS when playing just its 2nd game in a week this season.  The Thundering Herd are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game.  Roll with Marshall Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on Cornell +9.5

Cornell has been very impressive this season at 7-2 with their two losses coming by 2 at Boston College as 9.5-point dogs and by 2 at Miami as 14.5-point dogs.  They are once again catching too many points today against another ACC team in Syracuse today.

Syracuse has upset losses to Bryant and Colgate at home already this season and also lost to St. John's by 7 and Illinois by 29.  These teams have a common opponent in Monmouth, too.  Cornell won by 18 points on the road at Monmouth, while Syracuse only beat Monmouth by 15 at home.

Syracuse is 1-8 ATS in its last nine home games following a home win.  Cornell is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games a an underdog.  The Big Red are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Orange are 6-21 ATS in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Cornell Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Sam Houston State -3.5

Sam Houston State is 8-2 this season with its only losses coming to Nevada and Oklahoma State on the road.  They also beat Utah on the road by 10 and Oklahoma on the road, and those wins look really good right now especially after Utah handed Arizona their only loss this season.

Texas State is just 6-5 this season with some very ugly losses.  The most alarming was last time out when they lost 65-71 at home to Mary Hardin Baylor.  They also lost to Hawaii, Rice, UTSA and Washington State all by 5 points or more.

Sam Houston State has played the 31st-toughest schedule in the country while Texas State has played the 253rd-ranked schedule.  Texas State is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 home games vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game.  Sam Houston ranks 34th in adjusted defense while Texas State ranks 203rd.  Take Sam Houston State Saturday.

20* Houston/Virginia ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Houston -2

The Houston Cougars are legitimately one of the top teams in the country this season.  They are 10-1 with their only loss coming to Alabama after blowing a double-digit lead.  They rank 29th in adjusted offense and 2nd in adjusted defense.

Virginia is getting too much respect from the books right now after an 8-0 start.  But the Cavaliers have been squeaking by of late beating Michigan by 2 as 4.5-point favorites, Florida State by 5 as 18-point favorites and James Madison by 5 as 12.5-point favorites in their last three games coming in.

Virginia's luck runs out today against the best team they have faced yet in Houston.  I think the Cavaliers will be rusty because they haven't played since December 6th with 10 days off in between games.  Virginia will be without Reece Beekman (27 MPG, 10.0 PPG, 4.6 APG) for the first time this season after he was injured against James Madison.

Houston crushed Virginia 67-47 at home last season.  Virginia is 0-6 ATS in its last six games following four or more consecutive wins.  Houston is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games after a SU home win where they failed to cover.  The Cougars are a ridiculous 42-12-1 ATS in their last 55 games following an ATS loss.  The Cavaliers are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 home games.  Take Houston Saturday.

20* Indiana/Kansas ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Kansas -5

The Kansas Jayhawks are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall two of the most impressive performances of any team this season.  They beat Seton Hall 91-65 as 10-point home favorites and beat Missouri 95-67 as only 3.5-point road favorites.

Now the Jayhawks are only 5-point home favorites over the Indiana Hoosiers in one of the best venues for college basketball at home.  Indiana lost by 14 to Arizona on a neutral and by 15 at Rutgers in two of their last three games, which doesn't bode well for them being able to hang with the Jayhawks today.

Kansas has played the 39th-toughest schedule in the country while Indiana has played the 170th.  Kansas is 8-1 ATS in its last nine home games after winning three of its last four games.  Plays against road teams (Indiana) - after allowing 45 points or more in the first half last game against an opponent that is coming off three straight wins by 15 points or more are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Kansas Saturday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Blazers/Mavericks OVER 222.5

Damian Lillard is back healthy now to go with Simons and Grant and the Blazers have been a dead nuts OVER team since his return.  They are 4-0 OVER in their last four games overall with combined scores of 241, 242, 245 and 240 points.  They have scored at least 116 points in six consecutive games as well.

The Dallas Mavericks have been playing in a lot more high scoring games of late with Christian Wood in the lineup.  They have combined for 221 or more points in eight of their last 10 games overall and 229 or more points in seven of those.

The OVER is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings between the Mavericks and Blazers with 224 or more combined points in 11 of those 12 meetings.  That makes for an 11-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 222.5-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Knicks/Bulls UNDER 228.5

I love this spot for an UNDER bet.  The Knicks and Bulls just played on Wednesday with the Knicks winning 128-120 (OT) in a game that was tied 117-117 at the end of regulation.  The total was 226.5 for that game, and the books have made the mistake of adjusting it up to 228.5 for the rematch here two days later.

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  Both teams shot lights out in that first meeting and it won't happen again.  The Bulls shot 54.8% from the field, while the Knicks shot 49.5% from the field including a ridiculous 18-of-34 (52.9%) from 3-point range.  The Knicks are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the league at 32.6% for the season, so it was clearly an aberration.

The UNDER is 6-1 in Knicks last seven games overall.  The UNDER is 8-3 in Knicks last 11 road games.  The UNDER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.  The UNDER is 5-1-1 in Bulls last seven games following a loss.  The UNDER is 20-8-1 in Bulls last 29 games following an ATS loss.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Warriors/76ers ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia -6.5

The Philadelphia 76ers are at full strength in the health department right now with the exception of Tyrese Maxey.  They are playing their best basketball of the season going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with wins by 11 over the Lakers, by 18 over the Hornets and by 20 over the Kings.

Now the 76ers come in on two days' rest and highly motivated to face the defending champion Warriors.  But the Warriors have just been going through the motions all season, and they are going to regret that with the injuries that are starting to pile up for them.

Indeed, the Warriors will be without their top two scorers in Steph Curry (30.0 PPG, 6.8 APG, 6.6 RPG) and Andrew Wiggins (19.1 PPG, 5.1 RPG).  Both Klay Thompson (18.7 PPG) and Draymond Green (8.1 PPG, 6.7 APG, 6.0 RPG) are questionable to play tonight as well.  Either way, the Warriors stand no chance of being competitive without Curry and Wiggins.

The Warriors are 2-13 SU & 3-12 ATS on the road this season.  The 76ers are 10-5 SU & 11-4 ATS at home this season.  Philadelphia is 8-1 ATS in home games vs. good shooting teams that make 46% or better this season.  The 76ers are 8-0 ATS when playing 6 or less games in 14 days this season.  Take the 76ers Friday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic +13.5

The Orlando Magic have quietly gone 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall with four upset victories outright.  They only lost by 7 to the Bucks as 10-point dogs, beat the Clippers outright as 6.5-point dogs, beat the Raptors by 4 and 12 outright as 8 and 7-point dogs, and beat the Hawks by 11 outright as 3-point dogs.

This is a good spot for the Magic playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  This is a terrible spot for the Celtics returning home from a six-game road trip that concluded in Los Angeles.  I always like fading teams in their first game back home following a long road trip because there are so many distractions they have to deal with.  The Celtics haven't been home since December 2nd.

The Magic are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.  The Celtics are 1-5 ATS in their last six games playing on two days' rest.  Plays against home favorites of 10 or more points (Boston) - after failing to cover two of their last three ATS, when playing on two days' rest are 30-8 (78.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Magic Friday.

20* Pacers/Cavs NBA Friday No-Brainer on OVER 222.5

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 2nd in the NBA in pace and 23rd in defensive efficiency.  They have combined for 232 or more points in four of their last five games overall, including 269 with the Nets and 244 with the Warriors.

The Cleveland Cavaliers just got Donovan Mitchell back from injury.  They also got Kevin Love back.  They are a very good offensive team as long as Mitchell is on the floor.  They will have no problem getting up and down with the Pacers tonight in a shootout.

The last two meetings between the Pacers and Cavaliers went way OVER the total.  They combined for 251 points with a 222.5-point total and 233 points with a 216-point total.  The OVER is 6-1 in Pacers last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Roll with the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Kings/Pistons OVER 238

The Sacramento Kings are an OVER team when De'Aaron Fox is healthy, which is the case right now.  They rank 6th in pace, 7th in offensive efficiency and 21st in defensive efficiency on the season.  They are coming off a 124-123 win at Toronto for 247 combined points.

The Detroit Pistons are an OVER team of late.  After combining for 241 points at the end of regulation with the Lakers, they combined for 254 points with the Hornets at the end of regulation last time out.

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with combined scores of 236, 264 and 266 points.  That 266-point effort came in their first meeting this season, so we have a lot of room to spare here with this 238-point total.

The OVER is 4-0 in Pistons last four home games.  The OVER is 10-4-1 in the last 15 meetings in Detroit.  Detroit is 16-4 OVER in its last 20 non-conference home games.  Sacramento is 15-5 OVER in its last 20 games vs. bad teams outscored by 6-plus PPG.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hawks/Hornets OVER 232.5

La'Melo Ball (20.3 PPG, 8.0 APG) just returned from injury last time out.  The Hornets lost 134-141 (OT) to the Pistons in a game that saw 254 combined points at the end of regulation.  They were already a dead nuts OVER team without him, and they are one of biggest OVER teams with him.

They rank 10th in pace this season despite only playing four games with Ball, and they will be one of the fastest-paced teams moving forward with him in the lineup.  The Hornets are 25th in defensive efficiency and will continue being one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA.

The Atlanta Hawks are without their two best defenders right now in Clint Capela and Dejounte Murray.  They have allowed 220 or more points in four consecutive games but they have scored at least 116 points in three of their last four.  Their are fine offensively as long as Tray Young is in the lineup, and they are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA without Capela and Murray.

The Hornets and Hawks have combined for exactly 235 points in each of their last two meetings.  The OVER is 4-0 in Hawks last four games overall.  The OVER is 7-1 in Hawks last eight road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The OVER is 21-6 in Hawks last 27 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The OVER is 5-0 in Hornets last five games following an ATS loss.  Take the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans ML -118

I love the spot for the New Orleans Pelicans tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 100-121 loss at Utah on Tuesday.  Now they get to face the Jazz just two days later, and they will be the more motivated team, while the Jazz will relax after just blowing them out.

The Pelicans were 12-2 SU & 10-4 ATS in their previous 14 games before losing to the Jazz.  It was an aberration as it was one of their worst shooting performances of the season.  They shot just 39.8% as a team, 4-of-27 (14.8%) from 3-point range and 22-of-33 (66.7%) from the FT line.  They will shoot better in all three areas in this rematch.

The Jazz were not playing well coming into that game.  They were 3-8 SU & 3-8 ATS in their previous 11 games overall.  They are still without Collin Sexton (14.3 PPG) and I don't expect them to play nearly as well as they did Tuesday night in the rematch.

Plays on road favorites (New Orleans) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points, off an upset loss as a favorite are 60-26 (69.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Pelicans on the Money Line Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Houston Rockets +4.5

The Houston Rockets have quietly gone 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall despite being a 6.5-point dog or higher in five games.  They pulled the upset as 11.5-point road dogs to Phoenix and upset the Suns again as 6.5-point home dogs.  They upset the 76ers as 8-point home dogs and upset the Bucks as 10-point home dogs.  So it's not like they are beating bad teams, they are beating the best teams in the NBA has to offer.

Now the Rockets are undervalued once again as home underdogs to the Miami Heat, who are in an absolutely terrible spot tonight.  The Heat will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 110-108 win in Oklahoma City last night.  It will also be the 7th game in 11 days for the Heat, which is about as tough a spot as you will find in the NBA.  Don't be surprised if they rest several players tonight given the spot.

Miami is 2-10 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  The Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last five games playing on zero rest.  Miami is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Houston is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games.  Roll with the Rockets Thursday.

20* Timberwolves/Clippers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -6

The Los Angeles Clippers were the preseason favorites to win the NBA title.  But injuries have held them back thus far.  Now we are seeing a glimpse of how good this team can be with both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George back from injury for a few games now.

The Clippers just blasted the Celtics 113-93 at home on Wednesday.  The Celtics have the best record in the NBA, so that was no small feat.  And now I expect them to blast the short-handed Minnesota Timberwolves tonight.

The Timberwolves are coming off two consecutive road losses at Portland by 6 and at Portland by 21 in the rematch.  They will now be playing their 4th road game in 6 days.  They are without Karl-Anthony Towns (20.8 PPG, 8.2 RPG) and Jalen McDaniels (10.8 PPG) and could be without De'Angelo Russell (16.6 PPG, 6.3 APG), who is questionable with a knee injury.

Los Angeles is 5-1 ATS in its last six home meetings with Minnesota.  The Timberwolves are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.  Roll with the Clippers Wednesday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Blazers/Spurs OVER 229

The Portland Trail Blazers have Damian Lillard back healthy now and are a dead nuts OVER team as a result.  They are 5-1-1 OVER in their last seven games overall with combined scores of 230 or more points in five of those seven games with 227 in another.  They have scored at least 116 points in five consecutive games.

The San Antonio Spurs are a dead nuts OVER team as it is.  They rank 5th in the NBA in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive efficiency.  They have scored 112, 115 and 118 points in their last three games overall.  They are allowing 120.1 points per game and 50.4% shooting on the season.

The OVER is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in San Antonio.  Portland is 13-2 OVER in its last 15 games following two or more consecutive home wins and we're seeing 236.2 combined points per game in this spot.

Plays on the OVER on all teams where the total is 210 or higher (Portland) - a good free throw shooting team (76-79%) against an average free throw shooting team (72-76%), a hot shooting team making 47% or higher in four consecutive games are 32-6 (84.2%) over the last five seasons.  Take the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Orlando Magic +3

The Orlando Magic are quietly playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS against a brutal schedule with their lone loss coming by 7 as 10-point dogs to Milwaukee.  They upset the Clippers by 5 as 6.5-point dogs, upset the Raptors by 4 as 8-point dogs and upset the Raptors by 12 as 7-point dogs.

The Magic now come in on two days' rest and will upset the short-handed Atlanta Hawks tonight.  The Hawks are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall with their lone win coming by a single point over the Bulls in OT.  The Hawks are 5-9 SU & 5-9 ATS on the road this season.

The Hawks are without Dejounte Murray (20.8 PPG, 6.2 APG) and John Collins (12.3 PPG, 7.5 RPG) and could be without Trae Young (27.1 PPG, 9.6 APG), who is questionable tonight with a nagging back injury.  They shouldn't be favored without Murray and Collins alone, but they definitely shouldn't be favored with Young hampered.

Plays on home teams with a line of +3 to -3 (Orlando) - after beating the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games, in the first half of the season are 70-32 (68.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Magic Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pistons/Hornets OVER 226.5

The Detroit Pistons are a dead nuts OVER team right now.  They have combined with their opponents for 232 or more points in four of their last seven games overall.  They rank 29th in defensive efficiency this season and play a Charlotte Hornets team that ranks 24th in defensive efficiency.

The Hornets are also a dead nuts OVER team right now.  They have combined for 233 or more points with their opponents in five of their last seven games overall.  And they haven't had their best player in La'Melo Ball (19.3 PPG, 7.0 APG) for this stretch, and he has been upgraded to questionable and will likely make his return tonight.  Ball averaged 20.1 PPG and 7.6 APG last season and has only played in three games this season.

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings between Detroit and Charlotte with combined scores of 253, 260 and 251 points.  The OVER is 9-1 in Hornets last 10 games playing on two days' rest.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Ohio +13.5

The Ohio Bobcats are 5-4 this season with only a 1-point loss at Belmont as 6-point dogs and a 4-point loss in OT to Michigan as 14.5-point dogs.  They are 4-1 in their last five games overall, which includes an impressive upset road win at Youngstown State as 4.5-point dogs last time out.

Florida already has four losses this season.  They lost outright as 12-point home favorites to FAU, lost by 7 to Xavier on a neutral, lost by 29 to WVU on a neutral and lost by 21 to UConn at home.  I don't think they have any business being 13.5-point favorites over Ohio given those results.

Keep in mind this isn't a true home game for Florida as it is being played on a neutral in Tampa, so they won't have their normal home-court advantage.  The Gators are 0-6 ATS in their last six neutral site games.  Ohio is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games following a road win.  The Bobcats are 41-15 ATSin their last 56 games following two consecutive games as road underdogs.  Florida is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Ohio Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on New Orleans Pelicans -1.5

Nobody is playing better than the New Orleans Pelicans right now, and Zion Williamson is showing his importance to this team.  They have kept winning despite being without Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum for stretches because of Williamson and their underrated role players.

The Pelicans are 12-2 SU & 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall with their two losses coming to two of the best teams in the NBA in Memphis and Boston.  They have won seven consecutive games with four of those coming by double-digits and will be highly motivated to extend that winning streak to eight games tonight.  They are rested and ready to go playing just their 4th game in 9 days.

The Utah Jazz have hit the skids after a fast start to the season.  They are just 3-8 SU & 4-7 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Injuries have played a role in their struggles and they remain without Collin Sexton (14.3 PPG) tonight.  Utah ranks just 26th in defensive efficiency while New Orleans ranks 3rd, and that will be the difference in this game tonight.

Utah is 7-21 ATS in its last 28 games following a road loss.  Plays on road favorites (New Orleans) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points against an opponent that's off a road cover where they lost SU as an underdog are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Pelicans Tuesday.

20* Memphis/Alabama ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Memphis +8

The Memphis Tigers always start slow and then get better as the season goes on.  That's likely due to many new faces every year with the elite talent Penny Hardaway recruits.  They started 2-2 this season but have since gone 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS with wins over Nebraska by 12, Ole Miss by 11 and their most impressive win being a 9-point victory over Auburn, handing the Tigers their first loss of the season.

I think this is a terrible spot for Alabama.  They are coming off a big comeback win at No. 1 ranked Houston, pulling off the upset as 8.5-point underdogs.  Now they return home and will be fat and happy following that victory.

Last year, Memphis beat Alabama 92-78 as 3.5-point home underdogs.  Now Memphis is catching 8 points on the road in the rematch this season.  This is simply too many points in a game that is likely going to come down to the final possession or two.

Alabama is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after playing a game as an underdog.  It is coming back to lose outright by 5.1 points per game in this spot.  Memphis is 41-19 ATS in its last 60 games following an upset win a an underdog.  The Tigers are 31-16 ATS in their last 47 games as road dogs of 6.5 to 12 points.  Memphis is 37-18-1 ATS in its last 56 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Crimson Tide are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 home games.  Bet Memphis Tuesday.

20* Warriors/Bucks TNT No-Brainer on Milwaukee -3.5

The Milwaukee Bucks have a massive home-court advantage.  They are 12-3 SU & 10-5 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by 8.5 points per game.  They will be highly motivated to beat the defending champion Warriors tonight, and you know it's going to be a sell out and an even bigger home-court advantage than normal for the Bucks tonight.

The Warriors have been dreadful on the road going 2-11 SU & 3-10 ATS while getting outscored by 8.0 points per game.  They are without second-leading scorer Andrew Wiggins (19.1 PPG) and I don't give them much of a chance to even be competitive with the Bucks tonight without him.

The home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Bucks won by 19 and 39 points in their last two home meetings with the Warriors.  Milwaukee is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. good shooting teams that make 48% or better.  Bet the Bucks Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Marshall -2

The Marshall Thundering Herd are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall with all nine victories coming by 9 points or more.  They are laying too short of a number against UNC-Greensboro tonight.

UNC-Greensboro is just 4-6 SU & 2-7 ATS this season.  They are one of the worst offensive teams in the country, averaging 65.4 points per game on 39.4% shooting.  I don't see how they can keep up with Marshall, which averages 82.1 points per game on 47.3% shooting.  

And it's not like the Thundering Herd are poor defensively.  They allow 38.9% shooting and are holding opponents to 6.6 points per game less than their season averages.  Greensboro holds opponents to 6.5 points per game less than their season averages and 41.5% shooting.  These teams are similar defensively, but there's a big discrepancy on offense.

Greensboro is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home games.  The Spartans are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games following a loss.  Roll with Marshall Tuesday.

15* Celtics/Clippers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +4.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are as healthy as they have been all season with Paul George and Kawhi Leonard back in the lineup for a few games now.  The chemistry should get better with each passing game, and the Clippers should start playing like the team that was favored to win the NBA Finals coming into the season sooner rather than later.

Now they host a Boston Celtics team in a terrible spot.  The Celtics wanted revenge on the Warriors from losing to them in the NBA Finals and came up short Saturday, losing 107-123.  I think there will be a 'hangover' effect from that defeat.  It's the type of loss that can beat a team twice.

Plus, it's just time to 'sell high' on the Celtics, who have the best record in the NBA.  They were favored on the road against the Warriors, and now they're even bigger favorites on the road against the Clippers.  Plus, they will be without Al Horford tonight and were already without Robert Williams, so they are going to get killed on the boards with how small they have to go.

The Clippers are equipped better than anyone to guard Brown and Tatum with George, Leonard and Batum.  This is a great matchup for them as a result and I fully expect them to win this game outright, but we'll take the points for some insurance.  Roll with the Clippers Monday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma City Thunder +8.5

It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Oklahoma City Thunder off two consecutive road losses to Memphis and Cleveland.  They had won their previous three games with two of them coming on the road in upset fashion at Minnesota and at Atlanta.  Now they are rested and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.

The Dallas Mavericks have been one of the most overrated teams in the NBA this season.  They are 5-15-2 ATS in their last 22 games overall.  In those 22 games, they only won three times by double-digits, so they aren't blowing teams out.  The Mavericks will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days tonight as well.

The Thunder are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Mavericks not once losing by double-digits.  In fact, they pulled the outright upset as double-digit dogs in each of their last two meetings with Dallas.

The Thunder are 36-17 ATS in their last 53 road games.  Dallas is 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a losing record.  Oklahoma City is 24-8 ATS in its last 32 road games following two or more consecutive road losses.  Dallas is 5-13 ATS as a favorite this season.  Bet the Thunder Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Heat/Pacers OVER 228

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 2nd in the NBA in pace, 26th in defensive efficiency and are scoring 115.9 points per game while allowing 116.7 points per game.  Any total of less than 230 for the Pacers is worth a look to the OVER.

The Miami Heat are as healthy as they have been all season and are potent on offense when that's the case.  They have some of the best shooters in the NBA.  But they have slipped defensively this season, allowing 110.3 points per game on 47.5% shooting.  The loss of PJ Tucker has really hurt them defensively.

Six of Indiana's last eight games have seen 231 or more combined points.  Indiana is 18-4 OVER in its last 22 games following an upset loss as a home favorite.  Miami is 11-1 OVER in its last 12 road games vs. teams that attempt 39 or more 3-pointers per game.  The OVER is 35-15-1 in Pacers last 51 home games.  Take the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Bucks/Rockets OVER 226.5

The Houston Rockets are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 10th in pace this season and 29th in defensive efficiency, but they have talent on offense and can score.  They face a Milwaukee Bucks team that is as healthy as they have been all season now and one of the most efficient offenses in the NBA when that's the case.

The recent head-to-head history between Milwaukee and Houston really stands out.  The Bucks and Rockets have combined for at least 228 points in each of their last seven meetings.  That makes for a 7-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 226.5-point total.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +3.5

The Chicago Bulls will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, but it's pretty much a non-factor because they blew out the Mavericks 144-115 at home so they got to rest their starters in the 4th quarter.  Plus, the Bulls will be playing just their 3rd game in 7 days, so they are still very fresh and ready to go.

The Atlanta Hawks are in a world of hurt right now in the injury department, so they should not be favored in this game.  The only reason they are favored is because the Bulls are playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.

The Hawks are just 2-6 SU & 3-5 ATS in their last eight games overall.  The Hawks are without Dejounte Murray (20.8 PPG, 6.2 APG) and John Collins (12.3 PPG, 7.3 RPG) tonight and could be without De'Andre Hunter (14.9 PPG), who is questionable.  Roll with the Bulls Sunday.  

20* Wisconsin/Iowa Big Ten No-Brainer on Wisconsin +4.5

Iowa got away with being without their best player on Thursday in Kris Murray (19.4 PPG, 10.1 RPG) in a 75-56 win over Iowa State in a game that closed Iowa -3.  Iowa State shot 3-of-22 (14%) from 3-point range while Iowa shot 12-of-23 (52%) from 3-point range.  That's not going to happen against Wisconsin.

Iowa's luck runs out today against a Wisconsin team that is 7-2 against the 27th-toughest schedule in the country.  The Badgers have wins over Maryland, Marquette, USC and Stanford.  Their two losses both came down to the wire in OT to Kansas by 1 and to Wake Forest by 3.  So they haven't lost by this margin yet this season.  And without Murray again, the Hawkeyes aren't going to get margin on Wisconsin.

Wisconsin is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games as an underdog.  The Badgers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  Wisconsin is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games.  The road team is 9-4-2 ATS in the last 15 meetings.  Take Wisconsin Sunday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Raptors/Magic UNDER 222.5

I love this spot for an UNDER bet.  The Toronto Raptors and Orlando Magic will be playing in a rematch from Friday's 113-109 home win by the Magic for 222 combined points.  Now they play again here just two days later, and familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.

The Magic aren't going to shoot 59.2% from the field again like they did in that first meeting, which was played at a snail's pace.  Both of these teams prefer to slow it down as they are both tied at 19th in pace this season.  

The UNDER is 3-1 in the last three meetings with combined scores of 222, 229, 191 and 200 points.  They Raptors and Magic have combined for 222 or fewer points in five of their last six meetings.  The UNDER is 17-5 in the last 22 meetings in Orlando.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* Maryland/Tennessee FS1 ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 135

Tennessee ranks 1st in the country in adjusted defense.  They don't play particularly fast ranking 169th in pace, either.  The Vols are holding opponents to 51.2 points per game on 32.7% shooting, holding opponents to 21.5 points per game less than their season averages.

Maryland ranks 240th in adjusted tempo and likes to play slow.  The Terrapins are 8-1 this season in large part due to ranking 32nd in adjusted defense.  They are holding opponents to 61.3 points per game on 39.5% shooting, holding opponents to 10.0 points per game less than their season averages.

Tennessee is 7-0 UNDER in its last seven games coming off two consecutive home games.  The UNDER is 20-8 in Vols' last 28 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Kevin Willard is 52-29 UNDER vs. poor shooting teams that make 42% or less as a head coach.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Youngstown State -4.5

Youngstown State is 7-3 this season with all three losses coming on the road.  They are 3-0 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 32.7 points per game.  I think they are laying too short of a number here to Ohio.

Ohio is 0-4 SU in true road games this season and losing by 8.2 points per game.  And it's not like they've faced a murder's row on the road with the losses coming to Detroit, Belmont, Marshall and Michigan.

Ohio is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games vs. top-caliber teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game.  Youngstown State is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs. good ball handling teams that commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game.  Bet Youngstown State Sunday.

20* Celtics/Warriors ABC No-Brainer on Boston -2.5

The Boston Celtics are 17-2 SU in their last 19 games overall.  They have been making a statement this season that they are the best team in the NBA after losing in the NBA Finals last season.  And now they get their chance at revenge on the Golden State Warriors, who they lost to in the Finals.

The Celtics have had this game circled all offseason and won't waste this opportunity to get their revenge.  They'll be up against a banged up Warriors team that is playing without Andrew Wiggins (19.1 PPG) tonight.  That's a big loss because they needed him to guard either Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown.

Boston is a perfect 10-0 ATS after winning four of its last five games this season.  The Celtics are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. teams that attempt 39 or more 3-pointers per game.  Boston is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games overall.  The Celtics are 24-9-1 ATS in their last 34 road games.  Boston simply wants this one more.  Take the Celtics Saturday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls -2

This is a terrible spot for the Dallas Mavericks tonight.  They are coming off a hard-fought 105-106 home loss to the Milwaukee Bucks last night on National TV.  They will have a hard time getting back up off the mat after that defeat, and they won't have much left in the tank playing the 2nd of a back-to-back here.

This is a great spot for the Chicago Bulls.  They come in on two days' rest and playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.  They will run the Mavericks out of the building tonight at home.  The Bulls are as healthy as they have been all season and this is a great 'buy low' spot on them after failing to cover four consecutive games coming in.

Dallas is 0-7 ATS after winning four or five of its last six games this season.  The Mavericks are 2-10 ATS after playing a home game this season.  Chicago is 24-11 ATS as a home favorite over the last two seasons.  The Mavericks are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games.  Dallas is 0-5-1 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Bulls Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma City Thunder +6.5

This is a terrible spot for the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 95-106 home loss to the Sacramento Kings last night, who were without De'Aron Fox.  A big reason the Cavaliers struggled is because they are dealing with injuries of their own.

Indeed, Donovan Mitchell (29.0 PPG) missed that game and is questionable to return tonight.  They are also without Kevin Love (10.0 PPG, 7.1 RPG) right now, one of their top reserves off the bench.  Dean Wade (6.4 PPG) remains out as well.

The Thunder are fully healthy and playing well, going 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They come in on two days' rest and will clearly be the fresher team for this one.  So getting 6.5 points with them in this favorable spot is too much.

The Thunder are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games playing on two days' rest.  Oklahoma City is 36-16 ATS in its last 52 road games.  Cleveland is 3-9-1 ATS in its last 13 games when playing on zero rest.  The Cavaliers are 15-39-4 ATS in their last 58 games following an ATS loss.  Roll with the Thunder Saturday.

20* Arizona/Indiana FOX No-Brainer on Arizona PK

I think we are getting the Arizona Wildcats cheap at a PK today because they have failed to cover six of their last seven games overall.  This is a great time to 'buy low' on them as it's the first time all season they haven't been favored, and they have played a brutal schedule that has included Cincinnati, San Diego State, Creighton and Utah already.

Indiana has benefited from a much softer schedule with their best wins coming over Xavier and a banged-up UNC team.  They lost by 15 at Rutgers for their lone defeat, and they benefited from Nebraska being without one of their best players last game.  This is easily the toughest test of the season for Indiana.

This game is listed as a neutral, but no question the Wildcats will have the home-court advantage with more fans there with this game being played in Las Vegas.  Arizona has played the 85th-toughest schedule in the country while Indiana has played the 269th-toughest.  Jalen Hood-Schifino (8.7 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 4.1 APG) is questionable for the Hoosiers.  Take Arizona Saturday.

15* Kansas/Missouri ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Kansas -3

I've been looking for spots to fade this Missouri Tigers team because they are overvalued due to their 9-0 record.  They have benefited from playing the 360th-ranked schedule in the country.  Now they take on a Kansas team that has played the 71st-toughest schedule in the country.

I faded Missouri with success last game as they struggled to even get by SE Missouri State 96-89 as a 21.5-point favorite.  And now I'll fade them again here against easily the toughest opponent they have faced to date in Kansas.  The previous toughest was Wichita State, and they needed OT to beat them.

Kansas has wins over Duke, NC State, Wisconsin and Seton Hall (by 26) already this season.  Their lone loss came against a very good Tennessee team.  Kansas beat Missouri 102-65 at home last season.  The favorite is now 5-1-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet Kansas Saturday.

20* Memphis/Auburn ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Auburn -1

Bruce Pearl is doing a tremendous job at Auburn.  The Tigers are off to another great start this season at 8-0 SU.  I know it hasn't come against the most difficult schedule, but that's why were are getting them cheap here at basically a PK against the Memphis Tigers.

I trust Pearl more than Penny Hardaway, who just hasn't been able to get the most out of the talent on hand unlike Pearly.  Memphis already has two losses this season to Saint Louis and Seton Hall, and Auburn beat Saint Louis.  Seton Hall has lost by 26 to Kansas, by 16 to Iowa, by 13 to Oklahoma and lost outright to Siena, so that loss looks really poor now.

Auburn is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games following seven or more consecutive wins.  Memphis is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 December games.  Bet Auburn Saturday.

15* Washington State/UNLV FS1 ANNIHILATOR on UNLV -1.5

The UNLV Rebels are 9-0 this season and one of the most underrated teams in the country.  This game against Washington State is listed as a neutral site venue, but it will basically be a home game for the Rebels being played at MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas.  Fans will come out in droves to watch this team try and keep their perfect record alive today.

Washington State is just 4-4 this season with its four wins coming against Texas State, Eastern Washington, Detroit and Northern Kentucky where they were substantial favorites in all four games.  They even lost outright as favorites to Utah, Boise State and Prairie Vie A&M.  They also lost by 14 at Oregon with three of their four losses coming by double-digits.  This team is way overvalued this season.

The Cougars are 1-7 ATS in their last eight neutral site games.  Washington State is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games following an ATS win.  The Rebels are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  The Rebels are 4-1 ATS in their last five neutral site games.  Roll with UNLV Saturday.

15* SDSU/Saint Mary's ESPN+ ANNIHILATOR on San Diego State -1

The San Diego State Aztecs have a tremendous fan base and will have the home-court advantage despite this being played on a neutral in Phoenix.  Fans are excited about this team, and for good reason as the Aztecs are 7-2 this season with their two losses coming to two of the best teams in the country in Arizona and Arkansas.

The Aztecs also have wins over BYU, Stanford and Ohio State and have played the 21st-toughest schedule in the country.  St. Mary's is 7-3 this season against the 99th-ranked schedule.  They have upset losses to Washington and New Mexico already this season.  Their best wins are over Missouri State, Vanderbilt and North Texas.

Plays on neutral court teams as a favorite or PK (San Diego State) - off a SU home win but ATS loss, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%) are 73-36 (67%) ATS since 1997.  The favorite is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Take San Diego State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Purdue/Nebraska UNDER 138

Purdue ranks 265th in adjusted tempo and 29th in adjusted defense.  Nebraska ranks 266th in adjusted tempo and 73rd in adjusted defense.  This game will be played at a snail's pace, and Nebraska's improvement defensively this season is not being factored into these totals enough.

Purdue is holding opponents to 11.5 points per game less than their season averages.  Nebraska is holding opponents to 5.9 points per game less than their season averages.  They just held Creighton to 53 points in an upset victory two games back.

Guard Mason Gillis (5.7 PPG, 44.4% 3-pointers) is questionable for Purdue while G Sam Griesel (11.3 PPG, 35.7% 3-pointers) is questionable for Nebraska today after sitting out at Indiana.  The UNDER is 15-7 in Boilermakers last 22 games overall.  The UNDER is 8-2-1 in Cornhuskers last 11 games overall.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Bucks/Mavericks ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Milwaukee PK

The Milwaukee Bucks are back to full strength for the first time all season.  They have gone 6-1 SU in their last seven games overall and I think we are getting them at a great value as a PK against the Dallas Mavericks tonight.

The Mavericks are starting to get some respect after going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  But keep in mind they were 2-14-1 ATS in their previous 17 games.  This teams isn't very good, they aren't defending like they did last year, and they rely too much on Luka Doncic.  The Bucks have answers for him on defense that most teams don't with their length.

Dallas is 0-7 ATS following a loss by 6 points or less this season.  The Mavericks are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games after winning four or five of their last six games.  Dallas is 0-6 ATS in its last six games playing on zero rest.  These three trends combine for a perfect 20-0 system backing Milwaukee tonight.  Take the Bucks Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +10.5

The Detroit Pistons have quietly gone 9-2-2 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  I love the spot for them tonight because one of their non-covers came on December 4th just five days ago against the Memphis Grizzlies in a 10-point home loss as 6.5-point dogs.

Now the Pistons will be out for revenge from that defeat and are catching 10.5 points on the road in the rematch.  That's too big of an adjustment for home-court advantage, and too much considering the revenge factor as the Pistons will want this one more than the Grizzlies.

It's time to 'sell high' on the Grizzlies, who are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Now they are double-digit favorites for the first time in their last 16 games.  You're paying a tax to back the Grizzlies at this point.

Detroit is 9-1 ATS in non-conference games this season.  The Pistons are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Detroit is 19-7-1 ATS in its last 27 road games.  The Pistons have only lost one of their last 15 games by more than 10 points, making for a 14-1 system backing them pertaining to this 10.5-point spread.  Roll with the Pistons Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Kings/Cavaliers OVER 222.5

This is a very low total for a game involving the Sacramento Kings.  The Kings rank 6th in the NBA in pace, 5th in offensive efficiency and 24th in defensive efficiency.  They are a dead nuts OVER team with the way they play.  15 of their last 16 games have seen at least 219 combined points.  Sacramento games are averaging 235.3 combined points per game this season.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are one of the most efficiency offensive teams in the NBA as they rank 9th in offensive efficiency.  They will get whatever they want against the Kings, and they won't hesitate to get in a track meet with them, either.

These teams just met on November 9th a month ago with the Kings winning 127-120 for 247 combined points.  That's 24.5 points more than this posted total of 222.5, so there's clearly value with the OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rockets/Spurs OVER 233.5

Both the Houston Rockets and San Antonio Spurs are dead nuts OVER teams.  The Spurs rank 6th in pace while the Rockets rank 13th.  The Spurs rank dead last (30th) in defensive efficiency while the Rockets rank 28th.

The Spurs have lost 11 consecutive games and have allowed 117 or more points in 12 consecutive games.  The Rockets have allowed 120 or more points in seven of their last eight games overall.  I think both teams get to 117-plus in this one, which is all we need to cash this OVER 233.5 ticket.

The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between San Antonio and Houston with combined scores of 243, 237, 238 and 252 points with none of those games going to overtime.  Enough said.  Roll with the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Iowa State/Iowa FS1 No-Brainer on Iowa State +5.5

The Iowa State Cyclones are legit.  They are 7-1 this season with their lone loss coming to Connecticut, which may be the best team in the country at 10-0.  They have upset wins over UNC and Villanova and also handed St. John's their only loss of the season, 71-60.

The Cyclones beat the Hawkeyes 73-53 at home last season.  Iowa isn't as good as they were last season, and they could be without their best player in Kris Murray (19.4 PPG, 10.1 RPG).  He was seen in a walking boot on Wednesday after suffering an injury early against Duke, but playing through it in a 62-74 loss on Tuesday.  Now the Hawkeyes are in a terrible spot playing their 2nd game in 3 days after having to travel back from Madison Square Garden where they played Duke in the Jimmy V Classic.  

Murray was clearly hobbled as he went 3-for-9 for 8 points against the Blue Devils and wasn't nearly as aggressive as he usually is.  With Murray at anything less than 100%, the Hawkeyes should not be 5.5-point home favorites over the Cyclones, let alone favored at all.  Iowa has been exposed when stepping up in class losing by 12 to Duke and by 13 to TCU against their two best opponents thus far.

Iowa State has had the last three days off and will the fresher, more prepared team.  Their defense travels as they rank 13th in the country in defensive efficiency.  They are holding opponents to 37.3% shooting overall and 26.3% from 3-point range while allowing only 56.7 points per game.  They are holding opponents to 17.5 points per game less than their season averages.

Iowa State is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after failing to cover two of its last three games.  The underdog is 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Take Iowa State Thursday.

15* UConn/Florida ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on UConn -4.5

The UConn Huskies are legitimately one of the top teams in the country.  They are 9-0 SU & 8-0-1 ATS this season with all nine wins coming by double-digits.  That includes wins over Oregon by 24, Alabama by 15 and Iowa State by 18 on neutrals.

The Huskies rank 8th in adjusted offense and 10th in adjusted defense.  They are +27.9 points per game based on what their opponents score and allow on average.  Florida is only +13.8 points per game based on the same criteria, meaning UConn is 14 points better.  Yet they are only 4.5-point road favorites tonight, which is a discount.

Florida already has three losses this season and two of them were very concerning.  They lost outright as a 12-point home favorite to Florida Atlantic and were crushed by 29 by West Virginia on a neutral.  They also lost to Xavier by 7 on a neutral.  Their six wins have all come against overmatched competition with five of the wins coming as double-digits favorites.  When they have stepped up in class they have lost, and now they face their toughest opponent to date.

The Huskies are 8-0-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  The Gators are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with Connecticut Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma City Thunder +7.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA over the past two seasons.  They didn't get the wins to show for it last season, but they continually covered inflated numbers.  Now they are starting to get some wins to show for their efforts.

Indeed, the Thunder are 11-13 SU but 15-9 ATS this season and only getting outscored by 0.7 points per game.  They should not be catching 7.5 points to the Memphis Grizzlies, who are only outscoring opponents by 1.5 points per game on the season.  The Grizzlies are still without one of their best players in Desmond Bane, too, while the Thunder are almost fully healthy.

The Thunder are 41-17-3 ATS in their last 61 games following an ATS win.  Oklahoma City is 36-15 ATS in its last 51 road games.  The Thunder are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with upset road wins at Minnesota and Atlanta and only a 4-point loss at New Orleans.  Take the Thunder Wednesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Sacramento Kings +6.5

The Sacramento Kings are finally a legit team this year but oddsmakers are failing to catch up to it.  The Kings are 13-5 SU & 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games overall.  They are once again catching too many points tonight at Milwaukee..  The spot is good for the Kings as they come in on two days' rest.

The Bucks have let each of the last four teams hang around and it was against four bad teams, too.  They only beat the Knicks by 6, lost outright to the Lakers at home, only beat the Hornets by 9 and only beat the Magic by 7.  Both the Magic and Hornets are depleted due to injury right now, too.  It will be the 4th game in 6 days for the Bucks tonight as well.

Sacramento is 10-1 ATS after playing a home game this season.  Milwaukee is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 games following two consecutive road wins.  The Kings are 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 road games.  The Bucks are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games following a win.  Bet the Kings Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on SE Missouri State ML +105

Both SE Missouri State and IUPU-Fort Wayne sit at 5-4 this season.  The difference is SE Missouri State has played a much tougher schedule and is clearly the better team, thus they should not be home underdogs to Fort Wayne tonight.

The Redhawks upset South Florida and Evansville on the road and Boston on a neutral.  They only lost by 13 at Bradley and by 7 at Missouri as 21.5-point dogs, a Missouri team that remains undefeated this season.  They have only played two home games, which resulted in wins by 37 and 36 points.

The Mastadons have already played five home games and actually were upset by Detroit, and nearly upset by SIU Edwardsville and Oakland.  They are 1-3 on the highway with their only win coming on a neutral as a favorite against lowly Eastern Michigan.

SE Missouri State is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games vs. team that attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game.  The Redhawks are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games overall.  The Mastadons are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Take SE Missouri State on the Money Line Wednesday.

20* CBB Rivalry GAME OF THE WEEK on Pennsylvania +14.5

Pennsylvania is catching too many points tonight.  The only blowout road losses they suffered came early in the season at Iona and at West Virginia.  Their other four losses have all come by 7 points or fewer, including a 7-point loss at Missouri which remains undefeated.

Villanova is way down this season and should not be laying 14.5-points to Pennsylvania, which is probably the best team in the Ivy League when at full strength, which they are right now.  The Wildcats are just 3-5 SU & 2-6 ATS this season.  Their three wins came over LaSalle by 13, Delaware State by 10 and Oklahoma by 3.

So the Wildcats haven't won by this margin all season.  They also suffered upset losses to Temple, Iowa State, Portland and Oregon.  Oddsmakers have not caught up to how poor this team is, and that is clearly the case again tonight listing Villanova as a 14.5-point favorite in a rivalry game here against a potent Pennsylvania squad.

Penn is 71-49 ATS in its last 120 games following two consecutive losses.  The Quakers are 47-24 ATS in their last 71 road games vs. poor passing teams that average 12 or fewer assists per game.  The Quakers are 59-27 ATS in their last 86 road games vs. teams that average 33 or fewer rebounds per game.  The Wildcats are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet Pennsylvania Wednesday.

20* CBB GAME OF THE WEEK on Sam Houston State +10

Sam Houston State is 7-1 this season with its only loss coming on the road at Nevada.  That includes upset road wins at Oklahoma and at Utah as double-digit underdogs.  Oklahoma is 6-2 this season while Utah just beat Arizona to improve to 7-2 this season.  Nevada is also 7-2 this season.

Oklahoma State is clearly vulnerable this season.  The Cowboys were upset at home by Southern Illinois, upset on a neutral by UCF and lost by 10 at UConn.  They also only beat UT-Arlington by 11 at home and DePaul by 4 on a neutral.  Sam Houston State is more than capable of taking the Cowboys to the wire, so catching double-digits here is too much.

Sam Houston State is +11.9 points per game based on what their opponents score and allow on average this season.  Oklahoma State is 15.3 points per game given the same criteria.  So the Cowboys are only +3.4 points per game better than Sam Houston State, thus this line should not be double-digits even when you adjust for home-court advantage.

Sam Houston State is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games vs. good shooting teams making 45% or better.  Oklahoma State is 0-6 ATS in its last six December home games.  The Bearkats are 37-17-1 ATS in their last 55 games overall, including 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 road games.  Bet Sam Houston State Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Arkansas-Little Rock +28

Memphis should not be a 28-point favorite over Little Rock tonight.  The Tigers have a way of playing to their level of competition.  They are 6-2 this season but their largest margin of victory has been 19 points.  Now they are asked to lay 28 points to Little Rock.

This despite Little Rock only losing one game by more than 22 points this season despite playing a tough schedule.  They only lost by 19 at Indiana as 28.5-point dogs, and Indiana is better than Memphis.

Memphis is +12.9 points per game based on what their opponents score and allow on average this season.  Little Rock is -10.1 points per game given the same criteria, so 23 points worth than Memphis.  But we don't get to 28 even when adjusting for home-court advantage.  Then you have to factor in the sandwich spot, which shows Memphis coming off a win over Ole Miss and with Auburn on deck Saturday.  They will be looking ahead to that game.

Little Rock is 15-4-2 ATS in its last 21 games following a loss by more than 20 points.  Memphis is 0-5 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  Take Arkansas-Little Rock Tuesday.

15* CBB Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Tarleton State +19.5

Tarleton State has been too good this season to be getting this many points even to Baylor.  The Texans are 5-3 this season with upset wins over Belmont by 8 and Boston College by 16.  They three losses all came to three very good teams and were competitive, losing by 3 at Arizona State as 14-point dogs, by 7 to Drake and by 12 at Wichita State.

Baylor is clearly down this season with two losses already, and the six wins mostly coming against overmatched competition with the exception of a 5-point win over UCLA and a 1-point win over Gonzaga.  They also lost by 26 at Marquette and by 7 to Virginia.  Tarleton is the best team they will have faced outside the Power 5 teams, and I think the Texans give them a run for their money tonight.

Tarleton is +5.4 points per game based on what their opponents score and allow on average this season.  Baylor is 16.4 points per game given the same criteria, so 11.0 points per game better than Tarleton.  We don't get to 19.5 points even when we adjust for home-court advantage and strength of schedule here, so there's clearly value on the Texans.

Tarleton State is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a win by more than 20 points.  The Texans are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.  The Bears are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following a win.  Baylor is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following an ATS win.  Roll with Tarleton State Tuesday.

20* NBA on TNT GAME OF THE MONTH on Los Angeles Lakers +5.5

The Los Angeles Lakers are as healthy as they have been all season right now and are starting to play up to their potential as a result.  They have gone 8-2 SU & 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They continue to be lacking the respect they deserve as 5.5-point underdogs to the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight.

Cleveland is banged up and hasn't been playing great for a few weeks now.  They are just 7-8 SU & 6-8-1 ATS in their last 15 games overall.  They should not be 5.5-point home favorites over the Lakers with the way they are playing right now.  Cleveland is 14-39-4 ATS in its last 57 games following an ATS loss.  Bet the Lakers Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Wisconsin-Milwaukee +10

Wisconsin-Milwaukee is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They have gone 7-3 SU this season with two of their losses coming on the road to Purdue and Iowa State, which are two Top 25 opponents and they were competitive with Iowa State.  They also lost by 4 to St. Thomas at home.

Milwaukee should not be catching double-digits tonight considering they are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  Chattanooga is 5-3 SU this season with three wins by 11 points or more over Oakland City, Covenant and Gardner Webb.  They aren't blowing out any decent teams as they only beat Murray State by 3 and Tennessee Tech by 7.  They also lost outright to Lipscomb at home.

Milwaukee is +4.2 points per game based on what their opponents score and allow on average this season.  Chattanooga is +5 points per game given the same criteria, only 0.8 points per game better than Milwaukee.  This line should be much closer to PK than 10.  Milwaukee is 7-0 ATS in its last seven December road games.  Take Wisconsin-Milwaukee Tuesday.

20* CBB Monday Night Line Mistake on Kent State +15

Kent State is the most underrated team in the country. The Golden Flashes have gone 6-2 SU & 7-0 ATS this season.  Their two losses came by 2 at College of Charleston as a 2.5-point dog and by 5 at Houston as 19-point dogs.  Houston is 8-0 and the No. 1 ranked team in the country.  Charleston is 8-1 and also one of the most underrated teams in the country.

If Kent State can play with Houston on the road, it can play with Gonzaga on the road.  Keep in mind the six wins by Kent State have all come by 15 points or more this season, too.  The Golden Flashes are +14.9 points per game versus what their opponents average on offense and defense this season.

Gonzaga is +17.4 points per game given the same criteria, which means they'd only be favored by 2.5 points over Kent State on a neutral if you don't adjust for strength of schedule.  But the Bulldogs are 15-point home favorites here, which is way too high given what we've seen from them thus far.

Gonzaga is one of the most overrated teams in the country at 5-3 SU & 2-6 ATS despite being favored in every game but one this season, which was a 19-point loss at Texas.  They only beat Xavier by 4 and Michigan State by 1, while also losing by 16 to Purdue and by 1 to Baylor.  They have played a tough schedule for once early in the season, and they have been exposed.  This is one of the worst Gonzaga teams we've seen in years.

The Golden Flashes are 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 games overall.  Kent State is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 games following an ATS win.  The Bulldogs are 3-12-2 ATS n their last 18 games overall.  Gonzaga is 1-10-1 ATS in its last 12 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Kent State Monday.

15* NBA Monday UPSET SHOCKER on Miami Heat ML +110

The Miami Heat are finally getting healthy and it's starting to show in their play.  They have won four of their last five games overall and are coming off an upset win at Boston in Jimmy Butler's return from injury.  Now they have had the last two days off and will be fresh and ready to go tonight.

The same cannot be said for the Grizzlies, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 122-112 win in Detroit Sunday.  All five starters played at least 30 minutes for the Grizzlies yesterday.  I like the spot when I released this pick this morning, but I love it even more now given the injury report that has come out for the Grizzlies since.

Memphis will be without Desmond Bane, Danny Green, Ziaire Williams, Jake LaRavia and Jaren Jackson Jr. tonight.  Both JA Morant and John Konchar are questionable.  The Heat will have no problem blowing out the Grizzlies given who they will be putting out on the court tonight.

Miami is 16-3 ATS in its last 19 games following three consecutive road games.  Take the Heat on the Money Line Monday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Toronto Raptors PK

The Toronto Raptors are as healthy as they've been all season with their six best players in Siakam, Anunoby, VanVleet, Trent Jr, Barnes and Boucher all healthy right now.  Five of the six have missed at least three games this season, so that is important.  I think they are ready to take down the Boston Celtics tonight.

Boston is in a terrible spot, while it's a favorable one for the Raptors, who had yesterday off.  The Celtics will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days.  They just won 103-92 in Brooklyn last night after losing in OT to the Heat the game prior.  They won't have much left in the tank tonight.  Al Horford is out while Malcolm Brogdon is questionable tonight.

The Raptors are 38-17 ATS in their last 55 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Toronto is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games.  The Raptors are 16-6 ATS in their last 18 games as a home favorite of 6 points or less or PK.  Roll with the Raptors Monday.

20* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Oklahoma City Thunder +6

The Oklahoma City Thunder have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA over the past two seasons.  They didn't get the wins to show for it last season, but they continually covered inflated numbers.  Now they are starting to get some wins to show for their efforts.

Indeed, the Thunder are 10-13 SU but 14-9 ATS this season and only getting outscored by 1.0 points per game.  Let's just compare that to the Hawks, who are 13-10 SU but 10-12-1 ATS and only outscoring opponents by 0.7 points per game this season.  Given those numbers, the Thunder should not be catching 6 points here.

Now you have to factor in that the Thunder are fully healthy right now while the Hawks are not.  They are without John Collins, and both Trae Young and DeAndre Hunter are questionable tonight.  I assume Young is playing or this line wouldn't be this high, but the fact that he's hampered by a shoulder injury is not good for the Hawks.

The Thunder are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 road games.  Oklahoma City is 40-17-3 ATS in its last 60 games following an ATS win.  The Thunder are 24-11 ATS in the last 35 meetings, and 16-6 ATS in their last 22 trips to Atlanta.  Atlanta is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games following an upset win as an underdog.  Oklahoma City is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 road games vs. poor 3-point shooting teams that make 33% or less.  Take the Thunder Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/Pistons OVER 228.5

The Detroit Pistons have gone way OVER the total in consecutive games.  They combined for 250 points with New York and then 256 points with Dallas in a OT game that was still at 234 at the end of regulation.  It think we easily get up and OVER 228.5 in this matchup with the Grizzlies.

Memphis has scored 115 or more points in five of its last nine games overall.  Memphis has allowed at least 109 points in seven consecutive games.  Memphis and Detroit combined for 239 points in their most recent meetings.

The OVER is 14-4 in Pistons last 18 non-conference home games.  The OVER is 9-3-1 in Pistons last 13 home games.  The Pistons rank dead last in the NBA in defensive efficiency, allowing 115.8 points per 100 possessions.  Memphis is only 19th in defensive efficiency.  Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Sacramento Kings -2.5

This line is short due to the Sacramento Kings playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 123-96 win over the Clippers yesterday.  But they had two days off prior to that game, and no starter played more than 30 minutes for the Kings due to the blowout win.  They will still be very fresh and ready to go for the Bulls tonight.

Chicago is one of the most disappointing teams in the NBA.  They have gone just 9-13 SU and are 1-3 SU in their last four games with road losses to the Thunder, Suns and Warriors.  They weren't really even competitive with Phoenix or Golden State, and they won't be competitive with Sacramento, either.

Plays against road underdogs (Chicago) - following two or more consecutive road losses against an opponent that is off a road win by 10 points or more are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The home team is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Kings are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a win.  Sacramento is 5-1 ATS in its last six games when playing on zero rest.  Bet the Kings Sunday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Nebraska/Creighton OVER 141

Creighton is an elite offensive team that is coring 81.7 points per game on 49.8% shooting this season.  The Bluejays will carry the heavy lifting in helping us cash this OVER ticket.  The Huskers average 70.7 points per game on 46.7% shooting an can do their part, too.

My favorite angle on this play is the head-to-head history.  The OVER is 3-0-1 in the last four meetings as Creighton and Nebraska have combined for 146, 172, 171 and 179 points in the last four meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 167 combined points per game, which is 26 points more than this 141-point total.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on SE Missouri State +22

It's time to 'sell high' on the Missouri Tigers.  They are 8-0 against one of the easiest schedules in the entire country.  They have played seven home games against bottom feeders and earned an 88-84 win at Wichita State last time out.  It's now a sandwich spot for the Tigers with Kansas on deck.

I think the Tigers will be flat for this one, and I think SE Missouri State is good enough to hang within 22 points today.  They are 5-3 on the season which includes an upset win at South Florida as an 11-point dog, an upset win at Evansville as a 2-point dog and a 13-point loss at Bradley.  They haven't lost a game by more than 16 points this season.

Plays against favorites of 10 or more points (Missouri) - after covering five or six of their last seven, a top team (80% or better) against a good team (60% to 80%) are 44-16 (73.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Redhawks are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games overall.  The Redhawks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet SE Missouri State Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans Pelicans -1

The New Orleans Pelicans are rolling right now and should be more than 1-point home favorites over the Denver Nuggets today.  The Pelicans are 8-2 SU & 8-2 AS in their last 10 games overall.  Their two losses came to Boston and Memphis.

The Denver Nuggets are also 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall, but they have been feasting on a weak schedule beating the Thunder in OT, the short-handed Clippers and the Rockets twice.  They lost by 8 at Atlanta.

Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (New Orleans) - after beating the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games, in the first half of the season are 50-22 (69.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Pelicans Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on North Carolina +1

This is a great 'buy low' opportunity on the UNC Tar Heels.  They were the No. 1 ranked team in the country until losing three straight to Iowa State, Alabama and Indiana.  Now we are getting them as underdogs to a Virginia Tech team that will be a big step down in class for the Tar Heels.

Virginia Tech is 7-1 against one of the easiest schedule in the country.  They lost to College of Charleston, and their seven wins have come against Delaware State, Lehigh, William & Mary, Old Dominion (by 4), Penn State (by 2), Charleston Southern (by 5) and Minnesota.  This will be their toughest test yet, and it's worth noting UNC beat College of Charleston by 16.

Virginia Tech is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games vs. teams that average 40 or more rebounds per game.  The Hokies are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after playing two consecutive games as a favorite.  Virginia Tech is 0-6 ATS in its last six games overall.  The Tar Heels are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.  Roll with North Carolina Sunday.

20* St. John's/Iowa State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on St. John's +7

Iowa State has been overvalued since an upset win over then-No. 1 UNC and also an upst win over Villanova the game prior.  Well, both those blue bloods are down this season as UNC has lost three straight, and Villanova is 3-5 this season.

The Cyclones have since failed to cover two in a row losing by 18 to UConn as 5.5-point dogs and only beating a bad North Dakota team by 19 as 24.5-point favorites.  They should not be favored by 7 over St. John's today.

The Red Storm are 8-0 this season with wins over Syracuse, Temple and Nebraska.  I know they have played the easier schedule, but this is a veteran team that got some great transfers and is better than they are getting credit for here with this lack of respect as 7-point dogs.

St. John's is 7-2 ATS in its last nine road games.  Bet St. John's Sunday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rockets/Warriors OVER 232

The Golden State Warriors are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 4th in the NBA in pace and 9th in offensive efficiency.  They have scored at least 119 points in seven of their last 10 games overall.  But they are slacking on defense coming off a championship season, ranking 19th in defensive efficiency.

Houston is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Rockets rank 12th in pace so they like to push the tempo.  They rank 28th in defensive efficiency as they are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA.  But they do have some talent on offense and like to play small ball, which favors the OVER.  The Rockets have scored at least 113 points in five of their last six games, while allowing 120 or more points in five of their last six.

These teams just met on November 20th two weeks ago with the Warriors winning 127-120 for 247 combined points.  And we only need 232 here, so there's value with the OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Night Line Mistake on North Dakota +16

Portland just got to play Michigan State, Villanova and UNC in a tournament in Portland.  They were flat in their 100-79 win over Multnomah Bible in the game following that tournament, and I still think they'll be lacking motivation here against North Dakota to win this game by margin.

North Dakota is playing very well of late.  They have gone 4-2 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They upset Elon as 6.5-point road dogs, upset Utah Tech by 15 as 3.5-point home dogs, upset CS-Fullerton by 16 as 5.5-point dogs and covered in a 19-point loss at Iowa State as 24-point dogs.

Portland is 2-18-1 ATS in its last 21 games after scoring more than 90 points in its previous game.  The Pilots are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games after a combined score of 165 points or more.  The Fighting Hawks are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.  Take North Dakota Saturday.

20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Missouri State -2.5

Missouri State has only played two home games this season.  They have one of the better home-court advantages in the country and won their two home games by an average of 29.5 points per game.  Now they play their MVC home opener against Bradley, which is 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS away from home this season and losing by 18.0 points per game.

Bradley lost by 22 at Utah State, by 21 on a neutral to Auburn and by 11 on a neutral to Liberty.  Missouri State beat a very good Middle Tennessee team by 24 at home.  And home-court advantage has been huge in this series as Missouri State is 21-5 SU in its last 26 home meetings with Bradley.  The Bears are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Braves with three wins by 15 points or more.

The Braves are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games.  Bradley is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Bears are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Roll with Missouri State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Pacific +10.5

Pacific has some impressive results despite the 3-5 record.  They only lost by 10 at Stanford as 15-point dogs, upset North Dakota State as 5.5-point road dogs and crushed North Dakota by 30 on the road.  They also upset Cal Davis as 6-point road dogs, so they have played their best away from home going 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS.  Their four home losses all came by 4 point or less, too, so they haven't lost a game by more than 10 points this season.

Now they are catching double-digits here against a UC-Santa Barbara team that is clearly overvalued.  They have gone 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  They lost outright by 9 as 9-point favorites at Northern Arizona, only won by 13 over Hampton as 17.5-point home favorites, won by 18 over North Alabama as 18-point home favorites, and lost by 11 at Duquesne as 3.5-point dogs.

Pacific beat UC-Santa Barbara 80-71 as 4.5-point home dogs in their lone meeting last season.  The Gauchos are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet Pacific Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Providence/Rhode Island UNDER 133

Providence ranks 265th in adjusted tempo this season while Rhode Island ranks 197th.  Both like to play in the half court.  And with this being a rivalry game, the defensive intensity will be maxed out, thus I think we get an UNDER here.

Rhode Island is really struggling on offense this season.  The score 62.9 points per game on 37.4% shooting including 24.6% from 3-point range.  They only average four made 3-pointers per game.  They rank 261st in adjusted offense.  But they do defend well, holding opponents to 64.7 points per game on 41.6% shooting.

The UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with combined scores of 118, 136 and 109 points.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Friars last four games following a loss.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Kings/Clippers NBA Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on OVER 227.5

The Sacramento Kings are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 2nd in the NBA in pace, 4th in offensive efficiency and 26th in defensive efficiency.  Any total below 230 is low for a game involving the Sacramento Kings.

The Los Angeles Clippers may be getting back both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George from injury today to boost their offense.  They will have no problem getting into a shootout with the Kings either way.  10 of Sacramento's last 13 games have seen 229 or more combined points.

Plays on the OVER on all teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (LA Clippers) - after going over the total in their previous game, a good defensive team (104-108 PPG) against a bad defensive team (114-118 PPG) are 73-34 (68.2%) since 1996.  Take the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Bulls/Warriors ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 234.5

The Golden State Warriors are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in the NBA in pace and 9th in offensive efficiency.  They have scored at least 124 points in four of their last six games and the OVER is 4-0 in their last four games overall.  But they are slacking on defense coming off a championship season, ranking 19th in defensive efficiency.

The Chicago Bulls are lighting up the scoreboard of late as well scoring at least 113 points in five consecutive games.  But they have allowed 107 or more points in nine consecutive games.  They rank in the top half of the league in pace so they will enjoy getting up and down the court with the Warriors tonight to try and keep pace.

The OVER is 28-11 in Bulls last 39 road games after trailing their previous game by 20 or more points at halftime.  They gave up 132 points to the Suns last time out in a game that saw 245 combined points.  We'll see a similar shootout tonight against the Warriors.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rockets/Suns OVER 229.5

The Phoenix Suns are just rolling offensively right now.  They have scored at least 112 points in eight of their last nine games and are coming off 132 and 122-point efforts in their last two games against the Bulls and Kings, respectively.  They have allowed at least 112 points in eight of their last 11 games as well.

Houston is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Rockets rank 9th in pace so they like to push the tempo.  They rank 28th in defensive efficiency as they are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA.  But they do have some talent on offense and like to play small ball, which favors the OVER.  Phoenix ranks 3rd in the NBA in offensive efficiency.

The OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings between Houston and Phoenix with combined scores of 233 or more points in six of those seven meetings.  The OVER is 19-7 in the last 26 meetings in Phoenix.  The OVER is 9-1 in Rockets last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The OVER is 6-1 in Suns last seven games vs. a team with a losing record.  Take the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Heat +8.5

I love the spot for the Miami Heat tonight.  They are coming off a 121-134 loss in Boston on Wednesday.  Now they get their chance at revenge here just two days later again in Boston Friday.  At the very least I like their chances of staying within this 8.5-point spread and possibly pulling off the upset.

It's time to 'sell high' on the Celtics.  They have won 14 of their last 15 games overall and have won and covered five straight.  If they were going to have a letdown, this would be the spot after just beating the Heat by 13 two nights ago.

Injuries are working in Miami's favor here, too.  Jimmy Butler makes his return from a knee injury tonight, and Gabe Vincent, Max Strus, Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro are all probable for the Heat tonight.  This is as healthy as they have been in a long time, and they are one of the better teams in the East when fully healthy.

Miami is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 trips to Boston.  The Heat are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games when playing with double-revenge against an opponent.  Roll with the Heat Friday.

15* Arizona/Utah Pac-12 ANNIHILATOR on Arizona -6.5

The Arizona Wildcats are 6-0 this season behind an elite offense that is scoring 97.5 points per game on 60.3% shooting and 45% from 3-point range.  The Wildcats rank 3rd in adjusted offense and 1st in adjusted tempo and will run the Utah Utes out of the gym tonight.  They are also 43rd in adjusted defense.

Utah is off to a 5-2 start this season against a much softer schedule than Arizona has faced.  They lost to Mississippi State on a neutral and only beat Georgia Tech by 4 on a neutral.  But the concerning loss was the 10-point home loss to Sam Houston State as 10-point favorites.  And I give them zero chance of hanging around with the Wildcats in this one.

Arizona crushed Utah in both meetings last season winning 82-64 at home as 19-point favorites and 97-77 on the road as 11-point favorites.  So when comparing the spreads of both meetings last season, we are getting a discount here on the Wildcats as only 6.5-point road favorites.  Bet Arizona Thursday.

20* Mavs/Pistons NBA TV No-Brainer on Detroit +8

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Detroit Pistons tonight.  They are coming off their worst loss of the season a 110-140 home loss to the New York Knicks.  But they were competitive in their previous eight games, going 6-1-1 ATS in those eight games with an 8-point loss to Cleveland, a 6-point loss at Phoenix, an upset win at Utah, an upset win at Denver, an 8-point loss at Sacramento, a 7-point loss at the Lakers, a 5-point loss at the Clippers and a 4-point loss to the Raptors.

So that blowout loss to the Knicks was the aberration, not the norm.  They hadn't lost any of their previous 10 games by double-digits.  They won't be losing by double-digits to the Mavericks tonight, either.  Look for an inspired effort from the Pistons off that loss, and it's worth noting they are as healthy as they have been in a long time now.

This looks like a letdown spot for the Mavericks off their upset 3-point home win over the Warriors last time out.  Keep in mind the Mavericks had gone 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their previous four games.  In fact, the Mavericks are now just 2-13-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall and have just one win by double-digits in their last 18 games overall.  They aren't blowing anyone out right now.

Dallas is 0-9 ATS following a win this season.  Detroit is 7-0 ATS in non-conference games this season.  Roll with the Pistons Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Pacers/Kings OVER 238.5

Both the Sacramento Kings and Indiana Pacers are dead nuts OVER teams.  Sacramento ranks 7th in pace while Indiana ranks 3rd.  Sacramento ranks 4th in offensive efficiency while Indiana ranks 16th.  Sacramento ranks 27th in defensive efficiency while Indiana ranks 19th.

The OVER is 6-0-1 in Kings last seven home games.  The Kings and their opponents have combined for at least 237 points in each of their last six home games.  Roll with the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Houston Rockets +12

I love the spot for the Houston Rockets tonight.  They will be motivated for revenge from a 113-129 loss at Denver on Monday.  Now they get their shot at revenge in Denver again here two days later, and oddsmakers hasn't adjusted for the revenge factor considering Denver was an 11.5-point favorite in the first meeting and is now a 12-point favorite in the rematch.

The Rockets were playing well coming into that game.  They had gone 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their previous three games.  They only lost by 7 to Golden State as 11-point dogs, upset Atlanta by 6 as 8-point dogs and upset Oklahoma City by 13 as 2-point dogs.  They only trailed Denver by 2 at halftime, too.

I'll gladly fade the Nuggets tonight.  They won't be motivated at all to beat this team again.  They'll be lucky to get out of here with a win, let alone cover this 12-point spread due to their lack of motivation.  I also can't see them shooting 56.8% from the field again like they did in that first meeting and they still struggled to cover.

Denver is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 games following two consecutive wins by 10 points or more.  Plays against any team (Denver) - following two consecutive covers as a favorite, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 46-20 (69.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  It's time to 'sell high' on the Nuggets tonight given the terrible spot for them.  Bet the Rockets Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Southern Indiana -4

Southern Indiana has been impressive this season going 3-3 against the 27th-toughest schedule in the country.  They only lost by 6 at Missouri as 19.5-point dogs, by 12 at Notre Dame as 14.5-point dogs and by 14 at St. Bonaventure.  They also went on the road and upset Bowling Green by 12, upset Southern Illinois by 18 at home as 9.5-point dogs and crushed Loras by 32.

Western Illinois opened the season with an upset win at Illinois State and a blowout home win over Rockford.  They have gone 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS since with a 12-point loss at DePaul, a 33-point loss at UCF, a 24-point home loss to Youngstown State and an upset road loss at UTRGV.  They aren't very good.

Southern Indiana is +4.6 points per game based on what their opponents score and allow this season, while Western Illinois is -7.5 points per game.  So Southern Indiana is +12.1 points per game better than Western Illinois, and that doesn't even factor in their much tougher strength of schedule.  Southern Indiana should be much closer to a 10-point favorite tonight.

Western Illinois is 6-21 ATS in its last 27 games overall, including 0-6 ATS in its last six home games.  This team has almost zero home-court advantage with how terrible they have been.  Roll with Southern Indiana Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on North Dakota/Iowa State UNDER 133

Iowa State is a dead nuts UNDER team again this season.  The Cyclones rank 237th in adjusted tempo and 29th in defensive efficiency.  They play a North Dakota team tonight that also prefers to slow it down ranking 273rd in adjusted tempo.  This game will be played at a snail's pace tonight.

Iowa State is holding opponents to 16.6 points per game less than their season averages this season.  The Cyclones are holding foes to 37.8% shooting, which is nearly 8% less than their season averages.  Iowa State only shoots 29.7% from 3-point range this season and isn't a good shooting team.

Iowa State is 17-5 UNDER in its last 22 non-conference games.  The UNDER is 9-1 in Cyclones last 10 games overall.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Cyclones last five home games.  Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Nets OVER 224.5

Ben Simmons is a good defender and gives Brooklyn almost nothing on offense.  He is out tonight, meaning Kyrie Irving will likely take over the ball-handling duties.  Irving is a dead nuts OVER player as he is one of the best scorers in the NBA and one of the worst defenders.

The Washington Wizards are really starting to get in a groove offensively now with both Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porzingis healthy.  They followed up 121 points at Boston with 142 points at home against Minnesota.  They also gave up 130 points to the Celtics and 127 to the Timberwolves and have now allowed at least 110 points in four consecutive games.

The OVER is 4-0 in Wizards last four games overall.  The OVER is 23-10-1 in Wizards last 34 games following a win.  Take the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on VCU PK

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the VCU Rams tonight.  They are 4-2 SU but 0-5 ATS this season with their two losses coming to Memphis and Arizona State.  The Rams are 3-0 at home this season and winning by 11.7 points per game.  They have one of the best home-court advantages in the country, so this is a gift getting them at a PK against Vanderbilt.

Vanderbilt is a rebuilding team that lost their best player in Scotty Pippen Jr. (20.4 PPG) from last season.  They are off to a 3-3 start this season with home losses to Memphis and Southern MIss as well as a neutral loss to St. Mary's.  All three losses came by 9 points or more.  Their three wins have come against Temple, Fresno and Morehead State.  They also have four players questionable due to injury or illness tonight.  Bet VCU Wednesday.

15* Wyoming/Santa Clara Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Santa Clara -7

I like this Santa Clara team.  They are off to a 5-2 SU & 4-2 ATS start this season with all five wins coming by 8 points or more including neutral court wins over DePaul by 8 and Iona by 10.  Their two losses came on a neutral to UCF and on the road at Utah State.  They are 3-0 at home this season and are an elite offensive team.

But as much as I like Santa Clara, this is more of a play against Wyoming than anything.  They are without their two best players tonight in Hunter Maldanado (18.7 PPG last year, 14.7 PPG this year) and Graham Ike (19.9 PPG, 9.6 RPG last year).  They also could be without their second-leading scorer this season in Max Agbonkpolo (9.6 PPG), who is questionable today.

It's not wonder Wyoming is off to such a terrible start this season playing the entire way without Ike.  They are 3-3 SU & 0-4 ATS with their three wins coming against Colorado Christian, Nicholls State and Howard.  They lost outright at home as a 21.5-point favorite to SE Louisiana, lost to Drake and lost to Boston College by 11.  I see no way they can keep this game competitive against Santa Clara without Maldanado and Ike.

Santa Clara is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games after a combined score of 155 points or more.  Wyoming is 1-9-1 ATS in its last 11 games overall.  The Broncos are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games overall.  Bet Santa Clara Wednesday.

15* Baylor/Marquette FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Marquette +6.5

Marquette is 5-2 this season with its two losses coming to Purdue by 5 on the road and to Mississippi State by 3 on a neutral.  All five wins came by double-digits.  Well, Purdue and Mississippi State are a combined 13-0 this season.  Purdue just beat Duke by 19, Gonzaga by 18 and West Virginia by 12.  That 5-point loss looks real good now.

Baylor should not be a 6.5-point road favorite over Marquette tonight.  The Bears have faced such an easy schedule outside of their split with Virginia and UCLA in their tournament.  They lost to Virginia by 7 and beat UCLA by 5.  This will be the Bears' first true road game this season.

Marquette is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games following two or more consecutive wins.  Baylor is 0-6 ATS in its last six games following a win by more than 20 points.  The Golden Eagles are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Marquette is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 home games.  Roll with Marquette Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Tarleton State -7

Tarleton State made a great hire in Billy Gillispie who is a proven head coach at the D1 level.  He has gone 24-27 in his first two seasons at Tarleton, which have been rebuilding years for him with the Texans just moving to D1 two years ago and joining a loaded Western Athletic Conference.

Gillespie brought back three starters and two key reserves this season.  The Texans opened with a 59-62 loss at Arizona State as 14-point dogs before crushing Kansas Christian 95-49.  And boy does that 3-point loss to ASU look good now.  The Sun Devils upset VCU 63-59 as 3.5-point dogs on Wednesday and followed it up with a blowout upset win over Michigan 87-62 as 7.5-point dogs.

Tarleton followed it up with a 95-49 win over Kansas Christian, an 89-81 upset win over Belmont and a 70-54 upset win over Boston College.  The Texans then hung tough with Drake in a 7-point loss at 7-point dogs, and that's a Drake team that most expect to win the Missouri Valley.  They did lost by 12 at Wichita State, but now they are back home for just the second time this season and take a big step down in class here against Weber State.

Weber State has been a massive disappointment this season at 2-4 SU & 1-4 ATS.  You could see it coming though with just one returning starter and a lack of experience.  They lost by 17 at Washington, by 25 at Colorado State, by 7 to Riverside on a neutral and by 22 to Wright State on a neutral.  I have a hard time seeing them stay within 7 points of Tarleton State on the road given those results.

Tarleton State is +8.8 points per game when comparing what their opponents typically score and give up on the season, while Weber State is -4.0 points per game.  So Tarleton would be a 12.8-point favorite on a neutral based on those numbers, and they're at home here.  The Texans have played the 18th-toughest schedule in the country while Weber State has played the 76th, too.

Weber State is 1-12 ATS in its last 13 games after allowing 5 or fewer offensive rebounds last game.  The Wildcats are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games overall.  Weber State is 0-5 ATS in its last five road games.  Take Tarleton State Tuesday.