25* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Hornets/Nuggets OVER 203

The books have set the bar too low tonight in this contest between the New Orleans Hornets and Denver Nuggets. I look for a shootout tonight with both teams topping the 100-point mark in this one.

Since the return of leading scorer Eric Gordon, the Hornets have been a much more dynamic offensive team. They have scored 102 or more points in six of their last 11 games overall. Five of their last seven games have seen 203 or more combined points.

Denver is one of the highest-scoring teams year in and year out under George Karl. It is putting up 103.8 points/game overall, including a whopping 208.0 points/game at home this year. It is combining with its opponents to average 207.2 points/game in home games.

The OVER is 4-0 in Hornets last 4 vs. NBA Northwest opponents. The OVER is 7-0 in Nuggets last 7 home games. The OVER is 6-0 in Nuggets last 6 games playing on 1 days rest. The OVER is 5-0 in Nuggets last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The OVER is 5-0 in Nuggets last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. These five trends combine for a perfect 27-0 system backing the OVER. Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +6.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are in shambles right now. They just traded away arguably their best player in Rudy Gay, and they are going to have a hard time finding points from their perimeter players without him. I know many of their players are shocked at what has taken place.

Memphis really wasn't in it mentally last night as it lost 89-106 at Oklahoma City. I look for that to be the case again tonight whether or not Austin Daye, Tayshaun Prince and Ed Davis make their season debut for their new team. Plus, this will be the second of a back-to-back and the 4th game in 6 days for Memphis.

Making matters worse for the Grizzlies is the fact that they run into a buzz saw in the Wizards who have been one of the best covering teams in the league over the past month. Washington is 7-5 SU & 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games overall.

The return of John Wall clearly has this team playing its best basketball of the season. The Wizards have beaten the likes of the Thunder, Hawks, Nuggets, Blazers and Bulls during this stretch, which are five playoff contenders.

The Wizards are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Washington is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 road games overall. The Wizards are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Grizzlies are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Roll with the Wizards Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia 76ers -6

The Philadelphia 76ers are undervalued as only a 6-point home favorite over the lowly Sacramento Kings. Philadelphia won't be taking any games off the rest of the way as they fight to earn a playoff spot in the East. The same cannot be said for the 17-30 Kings.

Philly has really played well in its last three games. It beat New York 97-80 while also topping a red hot Washington team 92-84. Its lone loss during this stretch came in the last seconds in a 100-103 setback to Western Conference power Memphis.

Fading the Kings away from home has been a very prosperous move all season. They are just 5-18 SU & 10-13 ATS in road games this season. That includes a blowout road loss at Boston on Wednesday by a final of 81-99.

This has proven to be an excellent matchup for Philadelphia over the past several year, and I fully expect that to be the case again tonight. The 76ers are 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Kings. In fact, all seven of those wins have come by 10 points or more!

Keith Smart is 4-15 ATS versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game - 2nd half of the season as the coach of Sacramento. Doug Collins is 40-20 ATS versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game as the coach of Philadelphia. Smart is 16-33 ATS after a blowout loss by 15 points or more in all games he has coached.

The Kings are 2-11-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall. Sacramento is 8-26-2 ATS in its last 36 games following a ATS loss. The Kings are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Sacramento is 1-8-1 ATS in its last 10 games playing on 1 days rest. The 76ers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. Bet the 76ers Friday.

15* Heat/Pacers ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Indiana +2

While the Pacers have lost three of their last four, all three of those losses came on the road against Western Conference playoff contenders in Denver, Utah and Portland. They lost in overtime to the Jazz, and by a single point to the Nuggets. They certainly haven

20* Mavs/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 206

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Golden State Warriors and Dallas Mavericks. I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle as neither team tops 100 points in this one.

A look at the recent meetings between these teams and it's easy to see that there is value with the UNDER tonight. Five of the last six meetings between these teams have seen 206 or less combined points.

Even that 206-point effort, which was in their lone meeting this season on November 19th, only saw 206 points because of overtime. That game was tied 90-90 at the end of regulation for 180 combined points. So, not counting OT, five of the last six meetings in this series have seen 198 or fewer combined points.

Golden State has a ton of injury concerns that could hurt them offensively. Stephen Curry (21.0 PPG), Harrison Barnes (8.9 PPG) and Carl Landry (12.0 PPG) are all questionable to return tonight after missing their 108-95 win at Cleveland on Tuesday. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Arizona/Washington ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Washington +5.5

The oddsmakers have overcompensated for Washington

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Butler +2.5

Any time the Butler Bulldogs are catching points, it's certainly worth a look. That's the case here tonight as the ninth-ranked Bulldogs are a 2.5-point dog to the Saint Louis Billikens.

Butler is 17-3 this season with its only losses coming to Xavier, Illinois and La Salle. It has won 14 of its last 15 games overall with its only loss coming to a single point (53-54) at La Salle on January 23rd. That was actually a decent loss and one that will keep this team grounded going forward.

Somehow, Butler remains one of the most underrated teams in the country. That's evident by the fact that it is a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last 6 games overall, and a sensational 13-5 ATS in all games this season. Leading scorer Rotnei Clarke (16.7 PPG) just recently returned from injury in an 83-71 win over Temple last game, which only helps the Bulldogs even more going forward.

Saint Louis is a quality team, but with five losses on the season, it is no match for Butler in this one. It has recent losses to Temple (54-64) and Rhode Island (80-82), and it is clearly getting too much respect from oddsmakers as a 2.5-point home favorite here.

Brad Stevens is 29-14 ATS as an underdog as the coach of Butler. In fact, the Bulldogs are a dominant 7-1 as an underdog this season. As stated before, this team is always worth a look when they are catching points.

Butler is 8-0 ATS versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons. The Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Butler is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games following a S.U. win. The Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games. Butler is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. These five trends combine for a perfect 31-0 system backing the Bulldogs. Bet Butler Thursday.

15* Illinois/Michigan State ESPN No-Brainer on Illinois +8.5

Sure, the Illini have struggled of late, but that gets factored into the odds as well. Now, the books are asking Michigan State to win by nearly double-digits to beat you if you bet Illinois, so the value is certainly with the road underdog in this one.

Remember, this is the same Illinois team that beat Ohio State, Gonzaga and Butler all by double-digits en route to its 13-1 start. Take a look at the AP Poll and you will find all three of those powerhouses ranked inside the Top 11.

Each of Michigan State

15* Lakers/Suns ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles Money Line -137

The Los Angeles Lakers are playing their best basketball of the season right now. They have won three in a row over the Jazz, Thunder and Hornets due to playing team basketball for the first time all season. Kobe Bryant has double-digit assists in each of his last three games, and Dwight Howard is dominating like he's supposed to.

I look for the Lakers to carry their momentum into Phoenix tonight. At 20-25 on the season, Los Angeles cannot afford a letdown, so it will not be overlooking the lowly Suns tonight. Phoenix owns the worst record in the West at 15-30 this season.

The Suns are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Phoenix is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 vs. Western Conference foes. The Suns are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games. Roll with the Lakers on the Money Line Wednesday.

15* St. Mary's/San Francisco West Coast BAILOUT on San Francisco +8.5

The San Francisco Dons should not be catching 8.5 points at home tonight against the St. Mary's Gaels. I'll gladly side with the value and back one of the most underrated teams in the country.

That's evident by the fact that San Francisco is 9-12 SU but a very impressive 11-5-1 ATS. It has gone 6-4 at home this season with several impressive showings. The Dons even played Gonzaga tough on the road last time out, falling 52-66 as a 20-point favorite.

Now, the Dons want revenge from a 72-78 loss at St. Mary's as a 13-point underdog in their first meeting of the season on January 12th just over two weeks ago. In fact, San Francisco has lost each of its last three meetings with the Gaels all by 7 points or less. There's no question the Dons are going to be the more motivated team heading into this one because of it.

The Gaels are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The Dons are 25-8-1 ATS in their last 34 games overall. San Francisco is 39-14 ATS in its last 53 vs. WCC opponents. The Dons are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Roll with San Francisco Wednesday.

15* ACC GAME OF THE NIGHT on Virginia Tech +10

The Virginia Tech Hokies are showing perhaps their best value of the season as a 10-point home underdog to the Miami Hurricanes. Off back-to-back losses, the Hokies return home hungry for a win tonight. They are a solid 8-3 at home this season.

Miami comes in way overvalued due to its current 7-game winning streak. There's no question that this is a quality team, but after back-to-back blowout home wins over FSU and Duke, the Hurricanes are in an ideal letdown spot tonight.

The Hurricanes' last road game resulted in a 60-59 win at Boston College as a 6-point favorite. In fact, all three of their losses have come on the road this season. The home team has won five of the last six meetings in this series. Take Virginia Tech Wednesday.

15* Missouri Valley GAME OF THE NIGHT on Missouri State +20

I have been backing Missouri State with a ton of success over the past month. This is one of the most underrated teams in the country, and once again the Bears are undervalued as a 20-point road underdog to Creighton tonight.

While Missouri State is just 4-5 SU in conference play, it is an incredible 8-1 ATS against MVC opponents this season. Four of its five losses came by 10 points or less. Sure, the one exception was a 52-74 home loss to Creighton, but that puts the Bears in revenge mode tonight.

The Bluejays will have a hard time getting motivated to face a team that they already beat by 22 points this season. That will allow the Bears to keep it close for most of the game as the Bluejays won't be mentally in it. Creighton has shown it is vulnerable by losing two of its last three games, including a 69-74 loss at Drake.

The Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Missouri State is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 road games. The Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Missouri State is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. These four trends combine for a perfect 16-0 system backing the Bears. Bet Missouri State Wednesday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference Total DOMINATOR on Raptors/Hawks UNDER 198.5

The oddsmakers have set the bar too high tonight in this game between the Toronto Raptors and Atlanta Hawks. I'll gladly take advantage by backing the UNDER as I don't see either team getting to 100 points in this one.

I believe the biggest reason this total has been inflated is because both teams have played in some high scoring games of late. But the biggest reason for that has been overtime games. Toronto has played three overtime games in its last seven, while Atlanta played a double-overtime game against Boston two games ago.

One look at the recent history between these teams and it's easy to see that this number has been inflated. The Hawks and Raptors have combined for 196 or less points in each of their last five meetings. They are averaging a combined 185 points/game during this stretch. That's roughly 13 points less than tonight's posted total.

The UNDER is 5-1 in Raptors last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 20-8-1 in Raptors last 29 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. The UNDER is 4-1 in Hawks last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Non-Conference Total DOMINATOR on Kings/Celtics UNDER 194

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Sacramento Kings and Boston Celtics. I don't expect either team to reach 100 points tonight in this one, thus I'll back the UNDER with confidence.

Oddsmakers are overreacting from some recent high scoring games by Boston. However, three of Boston's last six games have gone to overtime, which is the biggest reason for this inflated number tonight. Also, you have to remember that Rajon Rondo is out for the season, so Boston is going to be lost offensively for a while. It is going to have to rely on its defense to win games.

Not counting overtime, the Celtics and their opponents have combined for 196 or less points in 10 straight games while averaging a mere 181.4 points/game during this stretch. In fact, nine of their last 10 games have seen 194 or less combined points at the end of regulation.

The UNDER is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings in Boston. The UNDER is 7-2 in Boston's last 9 home games. The UNDER is 4-0 in Celtics last 4 games following a S.U. win. The UNDER is 5-0 in Celtics last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The UNDER is 4-0 in Celtics last 4 vs. Western Conference foes. These last three trends combine for a perfect 13-0 system backing the UNDER. Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia 76ers -3.5

The Washington Wizards are way overvalued right now due to their recent run against the spread. They had covered 10 in a row before a 94-96 home loss to Sacramento on Monday. Now, they're only catching 3.5 points at Philadelphia, and I'll gladly pull the trigger on the 76ers.

Philly has played a brutal schedule of late, which is the reason it is only 1-3 in its last four games. It lost to the Spurs and Grizzlies by a combined 8 points, while also falling at Milwaukee. It did beat the New York Knicks 97-80 at home on Saturday, and a I look for another blowout home win here.

The Wizards are a woeful 3-18 on the road this season. The home team has won seven of the last eight meetings in this series. The 76ers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings with Washington, including a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home meetings. Take the 76ers Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -8

The Indiana Pacers are highly motivated for a win tonight. They are coming off three straight losses, all of which came on the road to Western Conference playoff contenders in the Nuggets, Jazz and Blazers.

Now, the Pacers return home to take on an Eastern Conference bottom feeder in the Detroit Pistons, and I fully expect them to make easy work of them while getting back in the win column. Indiana is 16-3 at home this season, while Detroit is just 5-16 on the road.

The Pacers come in the more rested team as well. This will be just the 3rd game in 7 days for the Pacers, while the Pistons will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days. They started to show signs of wearing down last night with a 90-117 home loss to Milwaukee.

Indiana has won four of its last five meetings with Detroit with three of those wins coming by double-digits. The Pistons are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Pacers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. loss. Indiana is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 meetings with Detroit, including 7-2 ATS in its last 9 home meetings. Bet the Pacers Wednesday.

15* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE NIGHT on UMass +9

The UMass Minutemen are showing solid value as a 9-point road underdog to the La Salle Explorers tonight. These are two evently matched teams as the Minutemen are 13-5, while the Explorers enter with a 14-5 mark.

La Salle is way overvalued due to back-to-back wins over Butler and VCU by a combined 9 points. There's no question it is in a big letdown spot tonight after those two huge victories, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Minutemen win this thing outright.

Both meetings last season were decided by a combined 8 points with La Salle winning 82-75 at home, and 72-71 on the road. In fact, the Explorers have won three straight and seven of the last eight meetings in this series. That clearly puts UMass in revenge mode as it will want this game more.

The Minutemen are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Explorers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. La Salle is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games following a win. UMass has played its best basketball away from home this season as it is 5-1 SU in true road games. Roll with UMass Wednesday.

20* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Dallas +3.5

The Dallas Mavericks should not be an underdog to the Portland Trail Blazers tonight. This is a must-win game for the Mavs as they trail the Blazers by three games in the Western Conference standings as both teams chase the 8th and final playoff spot.

Dallas comes in playing its best basketball of the season. It is 6-3 SU & an incredible 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games overall. Its only three losses during this stretch came to Western Conference powers in the Clippers, Spurs and Thunder, all by 6 points or less.

Portland comes in playing its worst basketball of the season. The Blazers are just 2-7 SU in their last nine games overall. They are showing signs of wearing down right now, and for good reason considering they have the worst bench in the league.

Portland's 16.5 points per game off the bench are by far the fewest in the NBA. The Blazers come in tired as this will be their 3rd game in 4 days. Meanwhile, the Mavs are well-rested considering this will be just their 3rd game in 9 days.

This play falls into a system that is 28-7 (80%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PORTLAND) - revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more, off a road loss by 10 points or more. Dallas beat Portland 114-91 at home in their lone meeting this season on November 5th, which was without Nowitzki.

The Mavericks are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 1 days rest. Dallas is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 Tuesday games. The Blazers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. These three trends combine for a perfect 18-0 system backing Dallas. Bet the Mavericks Tuesday.

15* Big Ten GAME OF THE NIGHT on Nebraska +19

This line is an overreaction from oddsmakers tonight folks. They expect Minnesota to bounce back and put an end to their 4-game losing streak. While that may be the case tonight, it won't be by 20 or more points against an underrated Nebraska team.

Nebraska is one of the most improved teams in the country when you look at where it is at now compared to where it started. The Huskers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall, which have all been in Big Ten play.

The Huskers have won two of their last three outright with a 68-64 win at Penn State as a 4-point dog, and a 64-49 home win over Northwestern as a 1-point dog. They played Michigan (47-62) and Michigan State (56-66) tough on the road this season in Big Ten action as well.

Minnesota is simply not playing well during its current 4-game losing streak. Sure, this is still a quality team, but it has not business being this heavily favored tonight against one of the most underrated squads in the country.

The Gophers are 0-6 ATS in home games after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 3 seasons. Minnesota is 2-13 ATS when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 3 seasons.

Both meetings between these teams last year were decided by 12 points or less. In fact, each of the last 10 meetings in this series dating back to 1997 have been decided by 17 points or fewer. Also, Minnesota's biggest margin of victory over Nebraska in those 10 meetings is 12 points. This makes for a perfect 10-0 system since 1997 backing the Huskers. Bet Nebraska Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Cavaliers +1.5

This is one of the best spots you will ever find to back the Cleveland Cavaliers. Not only are they playing their best basketball of the season right now, they also come in by far the more rested team in this showdown with the Golden State Warriors tonight.

Cleveland is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games overall. It has home wins over the Celtics and Bucks, as well as road wins over the Blazers and Raptors during this stretch. This team got a lot stronger with their trade with Memphis, bringing in Marreese Speights and Wayne Ellington, who combined for 29 points in a 99-98 win at Toronto on Saturday.

While the Cavaliers come in on two days' rest since beating the Raptors on Saturday, the Warriors will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days. Most teams are tired as it is as we near the All-Star break, and this situation is nearly unbearable for most teams. That's especially the case for Golden State considering it is expected to be without Stephon Curry (ankle, doubtful) tonight.

The Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Cleveland is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on 2 days rest. Golden State is 54-81 ATS in road games after scoring 110 points or more since 1996. Take the Cavaliers Tuesday.

15* SEC GAME OF THE NIGHT on Vanderbilt +8.5

The Tennessee Volunteers are one of the most overrated teams in the country this season. At 10-8 on the season, this is clearly a team in rebuilding mode. They miss arguably their best player in Jeronne Maymon, who is out for the season with a knee injury.

Tennessee has lost five of its last seven games with its only wins coming at home over Mississippi State and Alabama. That was a fortunate win Saturday as the Vols had to rally late for a 54-53 home win over the Crimson Tide, and that victory has them overvalued heading into this one.

Vanderbilt is playing its best basketball of the season here of late. It has won two of its last three games, while also taking Ole Miss to overtime four games ago. It won at South Carolina 58-51 before coming back home for a 73-61 win over Auburn. It did lost at Missouri 59-81 on Saturday, but that loss has it undervalued heading into this one.

This is an in-state rivalry that will be played close to the vest as it usually is. These teams have split each of their last six meetings dating back to 2010. All three of Vanderbilt's losses during this stretch came by single-digits.

Vanderbilt is 11-1 ATS in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game over the last 2 seasons. It is actually winning in this spot 66.1 to 60.4 on average. Tennessee is 4-15 ATS after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game over the last 3 seasons. The Vols are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games. Roll with Vanderbilt Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Bobcats/Bulls UNDER 186

The Chicago Bulls and Charlotte Bobcats will take part in a defensive battle tonight. While this is one of the lowest totals on the board Monday, I believe the books have made a big mistake by not setting it low enough.

Chicago comes in motivated for a win following its 73-86 loss at Washington on Saturday. It will be exerting its energy on defense to get the win, which is the trademark of this team.

The Bulls are allowing just 91.8 points/game overall, including 88.8 points/game at home. They have given up 87 or less points in five straight games, yielding an average of 84.6 points/game over this span, and that even includes an overtime game.

Chicago's biggest weakness is an offense that averages 93.3 points/game, including 91.8 at home. The loss of leading scorer Luol Deng (hamstring) has really hurt its offense of late as the Bulls are averaging a mere 87.6 points/game in their last five. Deng is questionable to return tonight.

A quick look at the recent history between the Bobcats and Bulls, and it's easy to see that there is a ton of value with this UNDER tonight. Chicago and Charlotte have combined for 185 or less points in each of their last five meetings with combined scores of 185, 184, 159, 168 and 172 points. That includes the 91-81 victory by the Bobcats on 12/31 in their lone meeting this season.

Chicago is 7-0 UNDER in home games versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game this season. The Bulls are 7-0 UNDER revenging a loss where team scored less than 85 points this season. The UNDER is 3-0-1 in Bobcats last 4 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The UNDER is 3-0-1 in Bulls last 4 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The UNDER is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings. These five trends combine for a perfect 23-0 system backing the UNDER tonight. Roll with the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total ANNIHILATOR on Warriors/Raptors UNDER 202

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this game between the Golden State Warriors and Toronto Raptors. I look for this to be a defensive battle between two of the most underrated teams in the league.

Golden State comes in hungry for a victory after back-to-back road losses to Chicago and Milwaukee. After giving up 103 points to the Bulls and 109 to the Bucks, there's no question that head coach Mark Jackson is going to preach defense to his team heading into this one.

Toronto is also hungry for a win after dropping six of its last eight, including a 98-99 home loss to Cleveland last time out. This is one of the more underrated defensive teams in the game, especially at home where they are allowing only 95.3 points/game.

Just looking at team averages alone, it's easy to see that there is value with this UNDER tonight. Golden State combines with its opponents to average 200.1 points/game on the season, while Toronto combines with its opponents to average 197.5 points/game.

The Raptors are 21-7 to the UNDER versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Paul Casey is 13-3 to the UNDER in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game as the coach of Toronto.

The UNDER is 5-0 in Raptors last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 19-8 in Raptors last 28 home games. The UNDER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Toronto. The Raptors beat the Warriors 83-75 for 158 combined points the last time these teams met up. Take the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* Pitt/Louisville ESPN Big Monday No-Brainer on Louisville -6

The Louisville Cardinals are going to be highly motivated for a win tonight as they host the Pittsburgh Panthers. In fact, I believe they will be giving more effort to get a win in this game than in any other contest all season.

Louisville comes in on a 3-game losing streak with three straight heartbreaking defeats to Syracuse (68-70), Villanova (64-73) and Georgetown (51-53). It hasn't lost four straight games in a single season in nine years.

"We have to get this win. It's a must game for us," head coach Rick Pitino said. "Because four (losses in a row), now you're on the verge of getting a sub-.500 record in the league, and you don't want to mess with that."

I believe Pittsburgh comes in overvalued due to its 4-game winning streak. Those four wins came against a soft schedule in Villanova, UConn, Providence and Depaul. Remember, this is the same Pittsburgh team that opened 1-3 in Big East play with losses to Cincinnati, Rutgers and Marquette.

The Cardinals are 9-1 at home this season. They are outscoring opponents by 21.9 points/game at home this year. They are 8-0 ATS after having won 15 or more of their last 20 games over the last 2 seasons. The Panthers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.

Louisville is 11-1 ATS when playing its 2nd game in 3 days over the last 3 seasons. This is always one of the most well-conditioned teams year in and year out under Pitino because they have to be to be able to run his full-court press. Bet Louisville Monday.

15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Creighton -10.5

The Creighton Bluejays are highly motivated for a victory tonight over the Southern Illinois Salukis. While the Blue Jays are 17-3 this season, they are coming off back-to-back road losses to Wichita State and Drake by a combined 8 points.

I look for Creighton to take out its frustration on the lowly Salukis, who are just 8-11 on the season. Southern Illinois has lost eight of its last nine games overall with five of those losses coming by 11 points or more.

Southern Illinois G Jeff Early is expected to miss this game due to a suspension. That's a huge loss for the Salukis as Early is their second-leading scorer (12.7 PPG) and top rebounder (7.5 RPG).

Creighton has won nine straight meetings with Southern Illinois while going 7-2 ATS in the process. In fact, the Bluejays have really owned this series of late, winning three straight meetings with the Salukis all by exactly 19 points. The road team is 21-7 ATS in the last 28 meetings, and Creighton is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

The Bluejays are 25-6 ATS in their last 31 Sunday games. Creighton is 4-0-2 ATS in its last 6 games following a ATS loss. The Salukis are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 home games. The Bluejays are 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Southern Illinois dating back to 2007. Take Creighton Sunday.

25* NBA Pre-All Star GAME OF THE YEAR on Dallas Mavericks -7

This is an excellent situation to back the Dallas Mavericks tonight, so much so that I have selected them as my strongest NBA release prior to the All-Star break. I look for them to roll by double-digits tonight over the lowly Phoenix Suns.

Dallas is playing much better now that Dirk Nowitzki is finally back and healthy. The Mavericks are 5-3 SU and a sensational 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall with their only losses coming to the Clippers, Thunder and Spurs all by 6 points or less.

Phoenix is a very tough spot tonight. It will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 4th game in 5 days. After falling at San Antonio 99-108 last night, I look for the Suns to really wear down in this one and not have anything left to give in the 2nd half. That's where the Mavs will pull away.

This play falls into a system that is 32-9 (78%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on home favorites (DALLAS) - well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days against opponent extremely tired team - playing their 4th game in 5 days.

Phoenix is a woeful 4-18 on the road this season. It is giving up a whopping 103.9 points/game on the road, getting outscored by 8.4 points/game away from home this year.

Dallas is 9-1 SU & 9-1 ATS in its last 10 meetings with Phoenix. It is also 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last 5 home meetings against the Suns dating back to 2010. All five of those wins came by 6 points or more, including four by 9 points or more. Bet the Mavericks Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Missouri State +1

The Missouri State Bears are one of the most underrated teams in the country this season due to their 5-15 record. This team has gotten better as the season has gone on, and I've ridden them with a ton of success of late.

While Missouri State is just 3-5 SU in Missouri Valley Conference play, it is an incredible 7-1 ATS. One of its three wins came at Drake by a final of 77-65 on January 5th despite coming into that game as a 10-point underdog.

While the Bulldogs would normally be in revenge mode in this spot, they simply won't care about it after what just happened. Drake beat Top-25 opponent Creighton 74-69 on Wednesday, and there's no question that sets it up for a big letdown here against a Bears team that will be hungry for a win following four straight losses.

Missouri State is 26-6 SU in its last 32 meetings with Drake, including a ridiculous 14-1 SU in its last 15 home meetings dating back to 1997. The Bulldogs are 1-12 ATS in road games after having won 2 of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. Drake is 1-8 ATS in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game over the last 2 seasons. Roll with Missouri State Sunday.

20* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Houston Rockets -2.5

The Houston Rockets are clearly undervalued right now due to losing eight of their last 10 games overall. They should be a much heavier favorite tonight over the Brooklyn Nets, who come in overvalued due to winning 10 of their last 12 games overall.

Brooklyn has been taking advantage of a very easy schedule during its recent run, but it finally met its match last night in an ugly 77-101 loss at Memphis. Houston had played a very tough schedule before getting back on track of late against some softer competition. It won 100-82 at New Orleans last night, which was a win it needed to regain its confidence.

Houston is a perfect 11-0 SU & 8-3 ATS in its last 11 meetings with Brooklyn. It has won all 11 of those meetings by 5 points or more, which dates back to 2006. That makes for a perfect 11-0 system backing to Rockets since 2006 pertaining to tonight's spread of -2.5.

The Rockets are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. win. Houston is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The Nets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 0 days rest. Brooklyn is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games following a S.U. loss. Take the Rockets Saturday.

15* SEC GAME OF THE DAY on Auburn +7.5

The Ole Miss Rebels are one of the most overrated teams in the country this season. They are off to a 16-2 start, which has caught the attention of oddsmakers and the betting public. They should not be laying 7.5 points on the road to the Auburn Tigers Saturday.

Ole Miss has done most of its damage at home this season, but it has just been so-so on the road. The Rebels have road losses to Middle Tennessee State and Indiana State. They also needed overtime to win at Vanderbilt as an 8-point favorite, won at Loyola-Marymount 73-70 as a 9.5-point favorite, and won against San Francisco 85-78 as an 8.5-point favorite in their other three road games.

Auburn comes in undervalued off three straight losses with two on the road to Arkansas and Vanderbilt, as well as a home loss to Kentucky. It will certainly be hungry for a victory to put an end to this skid. Remember, this is the same team that had won three straight against FSU, LSU and South Carolina before this skid.

Auburn is 11-1 ATS after a game - attempting 20+ less free throws than opponent since 1997. The Tigers are 9-1 ATS after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.

The Tigers are 7-0 ATS off 3 straight losses against conference rivals over the last 3 seasons. The home team is 6-0 SU in the last 6 meetings. The Tigers are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. These three trends combine for a 20-0 system backing the Tigers. Bet Auburn Saturday.

15* Big 12 GAME OF THE DAY on Oklahoma +14

The Oklahoma Sooners are one of the most underrated teams in the country. They should not be catching 14 points against the Kansas Jayhawks Saturday in a game that I fully expect to go right down to the wire.

Lon Kruger returned all five starters from last season for Oklahoma. Off a down year, this team came into the 2012-13 season undervalued, and they continue to be at this point of the season. The Sooners are 13-4 SU & 9-4 ATS on the season.

Kansas comes in overvalued due to its 17-1 start this season. It is in a huge letdown spot after a big 59-55 road win at Kansas State on Tuesday. The Jayhawks have been shaky in a few home games this season. They needed overtime to beat Iowa State, while also topping Temple 69-62 as a 13-point favorite.

Three of Oklahoma's four losses have come by 9 points or less. Bill Self is 10-20 ATS in home games after 8 or more consecutive wins as the coach of Kansas. The Sooners are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Roll with Oklahoma Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Tennessee -3

The Tennessee Vols are very hungry for a win Saturday when they host the Alabama Crimson Tide. They have lost five of their last six and are desperate for a victory right now. They also want revenge from a 65-68 loss at Alabama in their first meeting of the season on January 12th just two weeks ago.

Alabama is overvalued right now due to its four-game winning streak coming in. It will have a hard time getting motivated to face the Vols again after winning the first meeting. The Crimson Tide are also in a big letdown spot because they are coming off a huge home win over Kentucky 59-55 on Tuesday.

Alabama is 3-15 ATS in a road game where the total is 120 to 129.5 since 1997. Tennessee is 24-10 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3 since 1997. The Vols are 9-1 ATS off a loss against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.

The Vols are 7-0 ATS off a road loss against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons. Tennessee is 7-0 ATS in home games off an embarrassing road loss scoring less than 60 points over the last 2 seasons. These two trends combine for a perfect 14-0 system over the last two years backing the Vols. Take Tennessee Saturday.

25* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR on Duke -11.5

The Duke Blue Devils are highly motivated for a victory Saturday as they take on the Maryland Terrapins at home. They are coming off their worst loss of the season in a 63-90 setback at Miami on Wednesday. There's no question they will be looking to take out their frustration on the Terrapins Saturday.

Duke is 10-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 22.1 points/game. Maryland is just 2-3 on the road this year. The Terrapins are clearly overvalued, and that's evident by the fact that they are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.

Duke simply owns Maryland, winning five straight and 11 of the last 12 meetings in this series. Each of the Blue Devils' last four wins in this series have all come 13 points or more.

Maryland is 0-8 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 80%) after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons. The Terrapins are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. Maryland is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games overall. The Terrapins are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. ACC foes. Maryland is 0-7 ATS in road games on Saturday games over the last 3 seasons. The Blue Devils are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. These six trends combine for a perfect 34-0 system backing the Blue Devils. Bet Duke Saturday.

15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans Hornets -2.5

The New Orleans Hornets are one of the most underrated teams in the league right now. I have been riding them with a ton of success lately, and I'll continue backing them at a great price tonight as only a 2.5-point home favorite over the Houston Rockets.

New Orleans is 7-3 SU and a sensational 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games overall. It has beaten the likes of San Antonio and Houston at home, while also topping Dallas and Boston on the road during this stretch. This team is much better than its 14-28 record would indicate due to the recent return of G Eric Gordon.

Houston is stuck in a free-fall right now, yet it is still getting treated like one of the better teams in the West. That certainly isn't the case as the Rockets are 1-8 SU & 0-9 ATS in their last 9 games overall. Both James Harden and Jeremy Lin have been asked to do too much for this team, and as a result each is starting to wear down.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series to say the least. The home team has won each of the last seven meetings in this series dating back to 2011. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. The Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings in New Orleans.

The Rockets are 0-9 ATS in their last 9 games overall. Houston is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 after allowing 100 or more points in its previous game. The Rockets are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Houston is 0-7 ATS in its last 7 road games. The Rockets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 1 days rest. The Hornets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. New Orleans is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 vs. division opponents. These seven trends combine for a perfect 40-0 system backing New Orleans. Take the Hornets Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Memphis Grizzlies -4

The Memphis Grizzlies are showing excellent value as only a 4-point home favorite over the Brooklyn Nets tonight. I'll gladly take advantage and back the Grizz in this spot as I fully expect a blowout by game's end.

Brooklyn is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers right now due to winning 10 of its last 11 games overall. However, must of those wins have come against weak competition with the likes of the Wizards, Kings, 76ers, Suns, Raptors and Timberwolves mixed in. The schedule finally gets tougher starting tonight.

Memphis remains one of the most underrated teams in the league this season. That's evident by the fact that it is 27-14 SU and an incredible 24-15-2 ATS on the year. The Grizzlies are 16-6 at home this season, giving up just 87.0 points/game. The Nets are a mediocre 10-9 on the road.

The Grizzlies are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Memphis is 47-22-3 ATS in its last 72 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Grizzlies are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Bet Memphis Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -9.5

The Miami Heat will roll by double-digits tonight over the Detroit Pistons. After a five-day layoff, they were a little rusty against an underrated Toronto team on Wednesday, needing overtime to win 123-116.

Now that the Heat have shaken off the rust, they will turn their attention to a Pistons team that actually beat them 109-99 in their most recent meeting in Detroit on December 28th. Miami will certainly want revenge from that defeat while getting back to its domination in this series.

Miami has won seven of its last eight meetings with Detroit. Four of those seven wins came by 14 points or more, including a 98-75 victory in their most recent home meeting on April 8th, 2012.

The Heat are 17-3 at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 10.1 points/game. The Pistons are 4-16 on the road this season, scoring a mere 92.5 points/game away from home.

Detroit is 0-7 ATS after a game where both teams scored 90 points or less this season. The Pistons are 8-18 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The Heat are 19-8-1 ATS in their last 28 meetings with the Pistons. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Roll with the Heat Friday.

20* Knicks/Celtics TNT Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 189.5

The New York Knicks and Boston Celtics are very familiar foes in the Atlantic Division. There is no love lost between these teams, especially after the Carmelo Anthony/KG war of words in Boston's 102-96 win at New York on January 7th just over two weeks ago. I look for the defensive intensity to be at a regular-season high for both teams tonight.

It's no surprise that New York has been prone to the UNDER since losing starting PG Raymond Felton to injury. In fact, the UNDER is 3-0 in New York's last three games overall. It has combined with its opponents to average 183 points/game in its last three contests.

Boston is really struggling right now as it just cannot find easy point. It has lost three straight while scoring a mere 88.8 points/game in the process. If the Celtics want to be competitive tonight, they'll have to rely on a defense that is only allowing 93.4 points/game at home this year.

The UNDER is 8-1 (89%) in Knicks last 9 games following a ATS loss. The UNDER is 19-8 in Knicks last 27 Thursday games. The UNDER is 6-1 (86%) in Celtics last 7 home games as they've combined with their opponents to average just 180.1 points/game. The UNDER is 11-4 in Celtics last 15 games overall. The UNDER is 42-19-3 in Celtics last 64 Thursday games. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* ACC GAME OF THE NIGHT on Virginia Tech +5

The Virginia Cavaliers have no business being favored on the road tonight against in-state rival Virginia Tech. I'll gladly take advantage and back the home team as I believe the Hokies have a great chance to win outright. I'm only taking the points for some insurance.

Virginia is an excellent home team, but it has been simply atrocious on the road, which is why it should not be favored here. The Cavaliers are just 1-5 SU in games played away from home this year.

VA Tech has also been a poor road team, but it has been simply dominant at home. The Hokies are 8-2 at home this year, outscoring opponents by 9.5 points/game. Their home wins include Oklahoma State, Iowa and Wake Forest.

This has been a very closely-contested series in recent years. Both meetings last season were decided by exactly 2 points. Looking back further, all meetings between the Hokies and Cavaliers over the past three seasons have been decided by 7 points or fewer. In fact, nine of the past 10 meetings were decided by 7 points or less.

To no surprise, the underdog is 7-0-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in this series dating back to 2009. The Cavaliers are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 road games. Virginia is 1-6-1 ATS in its last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Roll with Virginia Tech Thursday.

15* Tennessee/Ole Miss ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Tennessee +8

The Tennessee Vols will be highly motivated for a win tonight when they travel to face the overrated Ole Miss Rebels. I believe there's a great chance the Vols win outright, but I'll take the points for some insurance.

Tennessee wants revenge from its worst loss of the season. Nothing went right as it fell 74-92 at home to Ole Miss on January 9th just two weeks ago. The Vols shot a woeful 38.5% from the field, including 7-of-26 from distance. There's no question they will be hungry for payback tonight.

Ole Miss is overvalued due to its 15-2 start this season. It has won seven straight coming in, and I have a good feeling it's starting to get to their heads. The Rebels will have a hard time getting motivated to face a Tennessee team they already beat by 18 points this season, which puts them on upset alert.

Ole Miss is 1-9 ATS in home games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) after 15 or more games since 1997. Tennessee is 16-4 ATS after a conference game over the last 2 seasons. The Vols are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games. The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Take Tennessee Thursday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Washington Wizards +7

The Washington Wizards have been the best team to back in the NBA over the past couple weeks. They are playing their best basketball of the season right now, and they should not be a 7-point dog to the Utah Jazz tonight.

Washington is 5-2 SU and a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last seven games overall. Its only losses came 94-95 at Sacramento as a 5-point dog, and 87-94 at the Los Angeles Clippers as a 13-point dog.

The biggest reason for the Wizards' resurgence is that PG John Wall has returned to the line-up. He has been on board the past six games, so it's no surprise that they are playing their best basketball right now. Wall is averaging 14.0 points and 6.7 assists in six games this year.

This play falls into a system that is 46-22 (67.4%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (UTAH) - hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season.

Washington is 10-1 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points this season. The Wizards are 9-0 ATS revenging a home loss vs opponent this season. The Jazz are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Utah is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Take the Wizards Wednesday.

15* Big Ten GAME OF THE NIGHT on Northwestern +9

The Northwestern Wildcats are showing awesome value as a 9-point home underdog to the Minnesota Golden Golphers tonight. Minnesota is clearly overvalued due to its 15-3 start and should not be this big of a favorite away from home where wins are very tough to come by in Big Ten play.

The Golden Gophers have finally come back down to earth with back-to-back losses to Indiana and Michigan, which are the two best teams in the Big Ten in my opinion. Minnesota's chances of winning the Big Ten took a big hit with those two defeats, and I look for it to suffer a mental hangover because of it.

It will be very tough for the Gophers to get up emotionally tonight to face a team that they already beat 69-51 at home on January 6th. There's no question that the Wildcats are going to be the more motivated team heading into this one as they want revenge from that loss that occurred just over two weeks ago.

Northwestern comes in playing its best basketball of the season. It won 68-54 at Illinois as a 10-point underdog on January 17th before coming back with a solid showing against Indiana at home on Sunday. It lost to the Hoosiers 59-67 as a 12.5-point underdog, and I believe it will stay within 9 points of the Gophers tonight as well.

The home team has won nine straight meetings in this series dating back to 2009. The home team is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Bet Northwestern Wednesday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Hornets +10.5

The New Orleans Hornets head into this game with the San Antonio Spurs playing their best basketball of the season. They should not be catching double-digits tonight because of it.

New Orleans has gone 7-2 SU & 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games overall. This run has coincided with the return of G Eric Gordon from injury. He leads the team in scoring at 17.4 points per game. and he's played in just 10 games all season.

New Orleans has played San Antonio very tough this season. All three meetings have been decided by 7 points or less, including a 95-88 New Orleans home victory on January 7th. The Hornets also lost 95-99 at home on 10/31, and 94-99 on the road on 12/21.

This play falls into a system that is 41-13 (75.9%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on road underdogs of 10 or more points (NEW ORLEANS) - after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games.

The Hornets are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. NBA Southwest. New Orleans is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 vs. Western Conference foes. The Hornets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 1 days rest. The Spurs are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. San Antonio is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 vs. Western Conference opponents. Bet the Hornets Wednesday.

Note: I locked in the Hornets early this morning before it was announced that Tim Duncan and Kawhi Leonard would be out, while Manu Ginobli is expected to return. I still recommend the Hornets +8.5 (the current line as of 2:00 EST) as a 20* play.

15* NBA Wednesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Pistons/Bulls UNDER 183

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Chicago Bulls and Detroit Pistons. I look for a low-scoring affair tonight as neither team exceeds 90 points in this one.

Chicago has been without leading scorer Luol Deng (17.4 PPG) in its last two contests, and with no surprise those two games have gone UNDER the number. Chicago lost at home to Memphis 82-85 (OT) on Saturday before beating the Lakers 95-83 on Monday. Deng remains questionable to return tonight.

This has been a low-scoring affair between the Bulls and Pistons in recent meetings. Not counting overtime, the Bulls and Pistons have combined for 182 or less points in four of their last five meetings. The four have been 182, 160, 164 and 172 points.

The UNDER is 3-0-1 in Pistons last 4 games playing on 0 days rest. The UNDER is 4-0-1 in Pistons last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 3-0-2 in Pistons last 5 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Chicago. These four trends combine for a perfect 14-0 system backing the UNDER. Also, the UNDER is 23-8 in Bulls last 31 home games. Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* Missouri Valley GAME OF THE NIGHT on Missouri State +11

The Missouri State Bears are one of the most underrated teams in the country. They are playing their best basketball of the season in MVC play, yet they keep getting treating like a bottom feeder in the conference from oddsmakers.

I'll gladly take advantage of this false perception and back the Bears as a double-digit home dog to Wichita State tonight. While Missouri State is just 3-4 in MVC play, it is a dominant 6-1 ATS on the season. It has been an underdog in all seven games, and only once has it lost by more than 8 points, and that came against Creighton.

Wichita State is in a huge letdown spot tonight. It came into the season as one of the favorites to win the MVC, right alongside Creighton. Well, the Shockers now have the inside track after beating Creighton 67-64 at home on Saturday. However, off such a big win, there's no question they have a letdown tonight against Missouri State.

The Shockers really haven't been impressive on the road at all this season. They have a 60-69 loss at Tennessee and a 67-71 loss at Evansville. They also beat Drake 75-63 and Bradley 69-63 on the road in MVC play, which is far from impressive.

Missouri State has not lost by more than 7 points to Wichita State in any of its last eight home meetings with the Shockers dating back to 2005. That makes for a perfect 8-0 system since 2005 backing the Bears pertaining to tonight's spread. Roll with Missouri State Wednesday.

15* Big East GAME OF THE NIGHT on St. John's +4.5

The St. John's Red Storm want revenge from their 56-58 home loss to Rutgers in their first meeting of the season on January 9th just two weeks ago. With home closely this series has been contested in recent years, there's no question the play is on the road dog tonight.

Incredibly, four straight meetings between St. John's and Rutgers have been decided by 3 points or less, and by a combined 9 points. The Red Storm are actually playing with double revenge having lost the last two in this series by a combined 5 points.

St. John's comes in playing very well having beaten Notre Dame 67-63 as a 7-point underdog, and also topping Depaul on the road 71-62 as a 3-point dog. Rutgers is coming off a heartbreaking 66-69 loss at Notre Dame and will suffer a hangover from that defeat.

Rutgers is 4-12 ATS as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. The Scarlet Knights are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS win. Rutgers is 10-26-1 ATS in its last 37 Wednesday games. The Scarlet Knights are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 vs. Big East opponents. The underdog is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Take St. John's Wednesday.

25* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE YEAR on St. Joseph's -7

Simply put, the St. Joseph's Hawks have underachieved this season with a 10-6 start despite returning all five starters from last season. However, that works to our advantage here as they are clearly undervalued as only a 7-point home favorite over St. Bonaventure (8-9).

St. Joseph's has really started showing signs of being undervalued by going a perfect 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall. They won at Duquesne 74-66 as a 6-point favorite and at Pennsylvania 79-59 as an 11.5-point favorite. They also lost at VCU 86-92 (OT) as a 12-point dog during this stretch.

St. Bonaventure has lost six of its last seven games overall. It is getting too much respect for its 81-78 win at Temple over the weekend, which has kept this line lower than it should be. The Bonnies are 2-6 in true road games this year, including recent ugly road losses to George Washington (59-78), Colorado State (64-85), and NC State (73-92).

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series. The home team is a perfect 6-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last six meetings. St. Joseph's has won 10 straight home meetings with St. Bonaventure. The last have all come by 7 points or more with victories by 14, 7, 11, 25, 31, 18 and 32 points. As you can see, their last seven home games in this series since 2004 have resulted in wins by an average of 19.7 points/game.

The Hawks are 7-0 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. They are winning in this spot by an average of 14.6 points/game. Bet St. Joseph's Wednesday.

15* ACC GAME OF THE NIGHT on Boston College +8.5

The Boston College Eagles are one of the most underrated teams in the country this season. They came into this year with little expectations after a rebuilding year last season in head coach Steve Donahue's first year on the job. Donahue has the Eagles playing much more competitive basketball in 2012-13.

While Boston College is just 9-8 on the season, there's no question this team is much better than its record would indicate. It has suffered three heartbreaking ACC losses in its last four games. It fell 73-78 to NC State, 72-75 to Wake Forest and 59-60 to Miami. There's no question it will be highly motivated for a win tonight after this tough stretch of losses.

Opposite of Boston College, this Maryland team isn't nearly as good as its 14-4 record would indicate. It has a 62-65 home loss to a down Florida State team, as well as road losses to Miami (47-54) and North Carolina (52-62). This is certainly a look-ahead game for Maryland, which has Duke on deck Saturday.

Also, the Eagles will come in the more prepared and fresher team having last played on January 16th in a 59-60 home loss to Miami. This will be just their 2nd game in 7 days, while the Terrapins will be playing their 3rd game in 7 days. They last played on Saturday in a 52-62 loss at North Carolina.

Boston College is 6-0 ATS versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. Maryland is 0-6 ATS vs. teams who are called for 3+ less fouls/game than their opponents after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons. The Eagles are 6-0 ATS after playing a home game this season. The Eagles are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Terrapins are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. These five trends combine for a perfect 27-0 system backing the Eagles. Bet Boston College Tuesday.

15* Big East GAME OF THE NIGHT on Villanova +11.5

The Villanova Wildcats are showing solid value as a double-digit home underdog tonight. This line is an overreaction from Louisville's home loss to Syracuse Saturday as the books expect the betting public to believe that the Cardinals will bounce back.

However, I look at it differently, feeling that the Cardinals are more likely to suffer a hangover from that heartbreaking 68-70 home loss to the Orange. It will be hard for these players to get up for Villanova after playing such a high-profile game over the weekend against Syracuse.

Meanwhile, Villanova is the team that has every reason to be motivated for a victory tonight. The Wildcats are looking to put an end to a 3-game losing streak heading in. They'll have no problem getting up to face Louisville tonight.

The home team has won six of the last eight meetings in this series. The two road wins came by 1 and 8 points. Rick Pitino is 6-16 ATS off an upset loss as a home favorite as the coach of Louisville. Take Villanova Tuesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -4

The Boston Celtics are highly motivated for a victory tonight as they travel to face the Cleveland Cavaliers. Boston will be looking to put an end to a 3-game losing streak, which included an ugly 88-103 loss at Detroit on Sunday. The Celtics have one of the best head coaches in the league in Doc Rivers, and he'll get his team to respond tonight.

"We are playing awful and I am clearly not doing my job for this team - and I am serious," Rivers said. "I am not trying to take a bullet for the team and I told them that. I said we have to find something where all 12 guys play the same way."

"I gotta either find the right combination or the right guys, or we're going to get some guys out of here," he said following Sunday's loss to Detroit. "That's the bottom line. This group right now, they're not playing right. It's in them to play right. But right now they haven't been either because I'm not getting to them, or they're not getting to each other."

The Celtics have an excellent chance of getting back on track against the lowly Cavaliers, who are just 10-32 on the season. They have played their worst basketball at home this season, going just 4-12 SU & 4-12 ATS. Their season is basically lost already, especially with the news that Anderson Varejao will be out for the rest of the season.

This play falls into a system that is 27-4 (87.1%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CLEVELAND) - after playing 3 consecutive road games, playing with 2 days rest. Bet the Celtics Tuesday.

15* SEC GAME OF THE NIGHT on South Carolina +14.5

With the distraction surrounding Missouri head coach Frank Haith right now, I'll gladly fade the Tigers at home as a 14.5-point favorite over the South Carolina Gamecocks tonight.

The NCAA is expected to notify Haith of allegations of "unethical conduct and failure to promote an atmosphere of compliance" stemming from his time as coach at Miami, according to a report by CBSSports.

This team isn't playing all well already, and they certainly don't need these distractions. The Tigers have lost two out of their last three in blowout fashion with a 49-64 loss at Ole Miss, and a 52-83 setback at Florida.

The distraction is bad enough, but when you couple that with Missouri's injury woes, and it almost has no chance of covering this inflated spread. Leading scorer Laurence Bowers (16.8 PPG) and 6th-leading scorer Keion Bell (8.9 PPG) are doubtful, while 5th-leading scorer Earnest Ross (9.6 PPG) is questionable.

Former Kansas State head coach Frank Martin is already turning around this South Carolina basketball program in his first year on the job. He has the Gamecocks off to a 11-6 start, which includes an 82-73 win at LSU as a 10-point underdog in their last road game. In fact, the Gamecocks are 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS on the road this season.

This play falls into a system that is 26-6 (81.2%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (MISSOURI) - average 3PT shooting team (32-36.5%) against an average 3PT defense (32-36.5%), after a game where a team made 33% of their shots or worse. Take South Carolina Tuesday.

15* Spurs/76ers TNT ATS ANNIHILATOR on San Antonio -6

The San Antonio Spurs are once again a covering machine this season. They are 32-11 SU & 25-17-1 ATS on the year and somehow they continue to go under the radar. Once again, they are undervalued as only a 6-point favorite over the lowly Philadelphia 76ers tonight.

The 76ers are really struggling of late, losing 14 of their last 19 games overall with 12 of those losses coming by 6 points or more. That includes recent losses to New Orleans (99-111), Toronto (72-90), Brooklyn (89-109), San Antonio (86-109) and Oklahoma City (85-109).

The Spurs have really had the 76ers' number in recent meetings. They have won three straight over Philadelphia all by 10 points or more. That includes their 109-86 home victory over the 76ers on January 5th earlier this month. San Antonio is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 meetings with Philadelphia.

The Spurs are 40-17-4 ATS in their last 61 games following a S.U. win. San Antonio is 34-15-3 ATS in its last 52 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. The Spurs are 41-19-2 ATS in their last 62 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The 76ers are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 vs. Western Conference foes. Take the Spurs Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Nets/Knicks UNDER 193.5

The books have set the bar too high Sunday between the Brooklyn Nets and New York Knicks. This will be the 4th meeting of the season between these teams, so they are certainly familiar with one another. Familiarity usually breeds low-scoring games.

The first three meetings this year have seen 185 (OT), 197 and 186 combined points. They have combined to average 183.7 points/game (not counting overtime) in those three contests. That alone lets you know that there's at least 10 points of value with this UNDER.

Another big reason to back the UNDER is the fact that the Knicks are now a slow it down team without starting PG Raymond Felton, who is out with a finger injury. Their offense just doesn't run as smoothly without him out there running the pick and roll.

Brooklyn is 16-6 to the UNDER versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 20-7 in Nets last 27 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The UNDER is 19-7-2 in Nets last 28 road games overall. The UNDER is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings in New York. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* Cincinnati/Syracuse ESPN No-Brainer on Cincinnati +9

The Syracuse Orange are in a huge letdown spot Monday after a huge win at then-No. 1 Louisville by a final of 70-68 over the weekend. They will not have enough left in the tank to beat a very good Cincinnati team by double-digits today.

Cincinnati is off to a 16-3 start this season while posting three straight wins in conference play. Its three losses this season have come by a combined 8 points, which includes two 1-point defeats and a 6-point setback to Notre Dame.

What is most impressive about the Bearcats this year is the fact that they have played their best basketball on the road. They are a perfect 7-0 away from home this season, which includes road wins over Iowa State, Oregon, Xavier, Pitt, Rutgers and DePaul. They won't be intimidated by the Carrier Dome one bit.

Cincinnati is 10-0 ATS in road games after playing a game as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons. The Bearcats are 8-0 ATS in road games off a home win over the last 2 seasons. Cincinnati is 6-0 ATS after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread over the last 3 seasons. Syracuse is 0-6 ATS vs. dominant rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 7+ per game over the last 2 seasons. These four tends combine for a perfect 30-0 system backing the Bearcats. Take Cincinnati Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Minnesota Timberwolves +8

The Minnesota Timberwolves are way undervalued right now due to their recent string of injuries to good players like Kevin Love and Nikola Pekovic. However, what the betting public fails to realize is that this team is one of the deepest in the league, which allows it to overcome these injuries and remain competitive.

That was on display last time out as the Timberwolves made easy work of the Houston Rockets by a final of 92-79. They had six different players score in double figures in a complete team win. Andrei Kirilenko led the way with 21, followed by Luke Ridnour (16), Chris Johnson (15), Derrick Williams (11), Jose Barea (11) and Mickael Gelabale (11).

The Atlanta Hawks are playing their worst basketball of the season right now, which is why they should not be an 8-point favorite today. They are 2-8 SU & 3-7 ATS in their last ten games overall. That includes an embarrassing 58-97 loss at Chicago on January 14th. Atlanta also has injury issues of its own as Devin Harris and Deshawn Stevenson are questionable, while Lou Williams is out for the season.

This play falls into a system that is 23-3 (88.5%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against home favorites (ATLANTA) - cold team - having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games, extremely tired team - playing 9 or more games in 14 days. Roll with the Timberwolves Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Rockets/Bobcats OVER 206.5

The Houston Rockets are coming off a 79-92 loss at Minnesota, which has certainly influenced the oddsmakers heading into Monday's showdown with the Charlotte Bobcats. The Rockets shot a season-worst 32.1% in that game, and there's no question they'll turn it around and get their offense going today.

Houston is one of the highest-scoring teams in the league at 104.5 points/game. They play at the fastest tempo in the league, which is also a big reason why they give up a whopping 103.5 points/game.

Charlotte is not a great offensive team (95.0 PPG), but it will certainly get its offense going against this soft Houston defense. Also, the Bobcats are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA as well. They give up 103.3 points/game on the season.

Houston is 50-27 to the OVER in road games after 3 or more consecutive losses since 1996. The OVER is 4-0 in Rockets last 4 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. The OVER is 7-1 in Rockets last 8 vs. Eastern Conference foes. The OVER is 6-1 in Bobcats last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Thunder/Nuggets NBA Sunday Night BAILOUT on Denver +1

The Denver Nuggets are highly motivated for a win Sunday for a couple different reasons. They are coming off an ugly home loss to the Washington Wizards on Friday as a double-digit favorite.

However, I picked the Wizards +10 in that game knowing that the Nuggets would likely be looking ahead to this game with the Thunder. That's because they want revenge from a 97-117 road loss to Oklahoma City on Wednesday.

The Thunder will be the team looking ahead in this one. After just beating the Nuggets only four days ago, they won't be motivated at all to beat them again. Plus, they have a road game against the Los Angeles Clippers on deck Tuesday, and they'll be looking ahead to that huge showdown between the top two teams in the West.

Denver is 15-3 at home this season. Oklahoma City is 10-24 ATS in its last 34 games after a close loss by 3 points or less. The Nuggets are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Denver is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games following a S.U. loss. Bet the Nuggets Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Afternoon Line Mistake on Rider +4

The Rider Broncs are showing excellent value as a 4-point home underdog to the Iona Gaels Sunday. This is one of the most underrated teams in the country, and that has really shown of late.

Rider is a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last 6 games overall. It has won four straight outright to get to 10-9 on the season. All four wins came by 7 points or more, and it is now ready to take on the overrated Gaels today.

Iona is overvalued due to its current 6-game winning streak coming in. Two of those wins came by narrow margins on the road. One was a 66-62 win at Siena as an 11.5-point favorite, and the other was an 86-82 victory at Marist as a 9.5-point favorite. All six of Iona's losses have come on the road this season.

Iona is 0-6 ATS versus poor passing teams, averaging <=12 assists/game this season. Rider is 10-2 ATS as a home underdog of 3.5 to 6 points since 1997. The Broncs are 12-1 ATS in January games over the last 2 seasons. Roll with Rider Sunday.

15* Utah/Washington Pac-12 Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah +11

The Utah Utes are one of the most underrated teams in the country due to their 8-9 start. They are highly motivated for their first Pac-12 victory of the season Saturday. Clearly, when you look at most of their losses this season, its easy to see that this team is much better than its record would indicate.

Seven of Utah's eight losses have come by 10 points or less. That includes road losses to Arizona State (54-55) as an 8-point dog, to Arizona (57-60) as a 19-point dog, and home to UCLA (53-57) as a 7-point dog. There's no question that the Utes have what it takes to play with the Huskies tonight.

Washington is on a nice run right now, but with this run comes expectations from oddsmakers that it cannot live up to. It has won four straight while beating Washington State, Cal and Stanford on the road while also knocking off Colorado at home. The Huskies could easily be overlooking the Utes tonight and looking ahead to a five-game stretch that includes Oregon State, Oregon, Arizona, Arizona State and UCLA.

This play falls into a system that is 31-6 (83.8%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road underdogs of 10 or more points (UTAH) - a poor offensive team (63-67 PPG) against a good defensive team (63-67 PPG), after allowing 75 points or more 2 straight games.

Utah is 12-3 ATS after 5 or more consecutive losses since 1997. Washington is 4-12 ATS after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The Utes are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Utah is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 road games. Roll with the Utes Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa PK

The Iowa Hawkeyes (12-5) opened with a brutal Big Ten schedule, losing their first three to the likes of Indiana, Michigan and Michigan State. However, they proved what they were capable of by nearly upsetting both the Hoosiers (65-69) and Spartans (59-62).

Iowa exploded for its first Big Ten victory last Sunday in a 70-50 triumph at Northwestern. This is one of the more underrated teams in the country, and it is capable of beating anyone at home inside of rowdy Carver Hawkeye Arena.

The Wisconsin Badgers are in a huge letdown spot here after winning at Indiana 64-59 as a 10.5-point underdog on Tuesday. They have opened 4-0 in Big Ten play with two of their wins coming over lowly Penn State and Nebraska by single-digits. As a result, they are overvalued right now.

Iowa is 8-1 ATS in home games versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. The Hawkeyes are in all home games over the last 2 seasons. Iowa is 11-1 ATS after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. The Hawkeyes are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win. Bet Iowa Saturday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE NIGHT on San Antonio Spurs -3.5

The San Antonio Spurs are showing solid value as only a 4-point road favorite over the Atlanta Hawks tonight. They have won 12 of their last 15 games overall and should have no problem making easy work of the struggling Hawks in this one.

Atlanta has lost seven of its last nine games overall coming into this one. That includes losses to Cleveland and Washington both by double-digits, which is a clear sign that there is something wrong with this team right now. They don't have what it takes to compete against a title contender like San Antonio from the West.

The Spurs have won 10 of their last 11 meetings with the Hawks while going 8-3 ATS in the process. All 10 wins came by 6 points or more. Dating back further, San Antonio is 22-7 SU & 20-8-1 ATS in its last 29 meetings with Atlanta.

San Antonio is 42-19-4 ATS in its last 65 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. Atlanta is 6-18 ATS versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game over the last 3 seasons. The Spurs are 9-1 ATS against Southeast division opponents over the last 2 seasons. Bet San Antonio Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Virginia Tech -4

The Virginia Tech Hokies (10-6) have played an absolutely brutal schedule in their last six games. They finally put an end to a 4-game losing streak by going on the road and knocking off Georgia Tech 70-65 in overtime as a 10-point underdog.

I like the Hokies to pick up back-to-back wins Saturday while facing the lowly Wake Forest Demon Deacons (9-7). Virginia Tech is 7-2 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by 10.5 points/game. It has impressive home wins over both Oklahoma State and Iowa.

Wake Forest is just 2-5 on the road this season, getting outscored by 7.3 points/game. It has blowout road losses to both Duke (62-80) and Clemson (44-60) in conference play. I expect a third straight blowout road loss for the Demon Deacons in ACC action today.

The home team has won seven of the last nine meetings in this series. Virginia Tech has won eight of the last 10 meetings. The Hokies are 5-0 in their last 5 home meetings with Wake Forest dating back to 2006. Take Virginia Tech Saturday.

25* SEC GAME OF THE YEAR on Arkansas +10.5

The Arkansas Razorbacks are showing their best value of the season as a double-digit underdog at Ole Miss Saturday. This is a team on the rise under second-year head coach Mike Anderson, and they are clearly underrated right now despite a solid 11-5 start.

I have no doubt that Ole Miss is one of the most overrated teams in the country after seeing them play several times this season. Ole Miss is off to a 14-2 start, but it is nowhere near as good as its record would indicate. It needed overtime to win at Vanderbilt last time out despite being a 9-point favorite.

This has been a very closely-contested rivalry in recent years. In fact, each of the last 10 meetings dating back to 2008 have been decided by 10 points or less. That makes for a perfect 10-0 system backing the Razorbacks pertaining to today's 10.5-point spread.

Ole Miss is 0-6 ATS in home games after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 3 seasons. Bet Arkansas Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Penn State -4

The Penn State Nittany Lions are very hungry for their first Big Ten victory of the season. They played Michigan State tough at home on Wednesday, and I look for them to get that elusive first conference win today.

They'll host the lowly Nebraska Cornhuskers, who I feel are the worst team in the Big Ten. They are just 2-5 on the road this season, scoring 57.9 points/game away from home. They are also winless in Big Ten play, which includes an 0-3 road record. They have lost all three of their conference road games by 10 points or more.

The home team one both meetings last season in Nebraska's inaugural Big Ten campaign. In fact, both were blowouts as the Huskers won 70-58 on January 11th, while the Nittany Lions had their revenge with a 67-51 triumph on February 11th.

Penn State is a perfect 6-0 ATS in home games after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread over the last 3 seasons. Take Penn State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Harvard +11

The Harvard Crimson are one of the most underrated teams in the country under former Michigan head coach Tommy Amaker. This team is much better than its 9-5 record would indicate as it has had some very close losses to some very good teams.

In fact, four of Harvard's five losses this season have come by less than 11 points. That includes road losses to UMass (64-67) as an 11-point dog, UConn (49-57) as a 9-point dog, and St. Mary's (69-70) as a 12-point dog. They have also won at Boston College (79-63) as a 4-point dog and at California (67-62) as an 11-point dog.

Memphis really only has one very good win this season, which was an 85-80 win at Tennessee as a 2.5-point underdog. This team has lost to the three best teams it has faced in Louisville, Minnesota and VCU all by 9 points or more. The Tigers are clearly overvalued today as a double-digit favorite.

Harvard is 7-0 ATS in road games when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days over the last 2 seasons. It is winning in this spot by 14.8 points/game. The Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games. The Crimson are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. These three trends combine for a 15-0 system backing the Crimson. Roll with Harvard Saturday.

20* Thunder/Mavs ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 205.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between Western Conference rivals Dallas and Oklahoma City. These teams are very familiar with one another after squaring off in the playoffs last year. Familiarity breeds low-scoring games.

A quick look at all meetings between these teams over the past two seasons and it's easy to see that this total has been inflated. Not counting overtime, each of the last eight meetings between the Mavs & Thunder have seen 201 or less combined points at the end of regulation. That's a perfect 8-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set.

This play falls into a system that is 36-13 (73.5%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game against opponent after scoring 105 points or more.

The UNDER is 4-0 in Thunder last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The UNDER is 7-0 in the Mavs last 7 Friday games. Combine these two trends with the 8-0 one based on their recent head-to-head history, and we have a perfect 19-0 system backing the UNDER tonight. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on Washington Wizards +10

I have ridden the Washington Wizards with success in their last couple of games. They have won three of their last four with their only loss coming 94-95 at Sacramento as a 5-point underdog last time out. Their three wins came at home over the Thunder, Hawks, and Magic with two of the three coming by double-digits.

This is a completely different Washington team now with John Wall back in the line-up. His energy is contagious, and you can see it coming off in his teammates during this four-game stretch. He makes the job of everyone on offense easier, creating looks for open teammates.

It's no coincidence that the Wizards are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. They are once again undervalued as a 10-point dog to the Denver Nuggets tonight. Denver is a great home team, but it certainly has a tendency to play down to its competition.

The Nuggets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Washington is 40-22 ATS off a close road loss of 3 points or less since 1996. The Wizards are 8-1 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points this season. Washington is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Roll with the Wizards Friday.

15* Bulls/Celtics ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Boston -3

I have been riding the Boston Celtics with a lot of success lately. They have won six of their last seven games overall while going 5-2 ATS in the process. Off a loss last time out, the Celtics are once again undervalued as only a 3-point favorite over the Bulls tonight.

Chicago comes in overvalued after back-to-back wins, which included a 97-58 home victory over Atlanta. It needed overtime to win at Toronto last time out, and there's no question that it is the more tired team heading into this one.

The Bulls will be playing their 5th game in 8 days, while the Celtics will only be playing their 3rd game in 7 days. Boston does have some veteran on its team like Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce, so playing on good rest is very important for the Celtics.

The home team has won nine of the last 11 meetings in this series with all nine wins coming by 4 points or more. The Bulls are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The Celtics are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Boston is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 vs. Eastern Conference foes. Take the Celtics Friday.

25* NBA on TNT TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Heat/Lakers UNDER 207

You can expect the defensive intensity to be at an all-time high when the Los Angeles Lakers and Miami Heat get together tonight. That has been the case in recent meetings when Kobe and company and Lebron and his teammates have gotten together.

The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in this series. All four games saw 185 or less combined points with an average of 179.8 points/game. As you can see, we are getting roughly 27 points of value in backing the UNDER based on their last four meetings.

Sure, the Lakers have a new system under Mike D'Antoni, but that's the biggest reason this total has been inflated. Since defensive stopper Dwight Howard has returned from injury, the UNDER is 2-0 in the Lakers' past two games with a 113-93 victory over Cleveland, and a 104-88 triumph over Milwaukee.

The Lakers know they cannot run with the more athletic Heat, so they certainly aren't going to turn this into a track meet. Look for the Lakers to control the tempo playing at home tonight in what will be a half-court game.

The UNDER is 6-1-1 in Lakers last 7 home games. The UNDER is 4-0 in Lakers last 4 games overall. The UNDER is 4-0 in Lakers last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 4-0 in Lakers last 4 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings. These five trends combine for a 22-1 system backing the UNDER. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Pac-12 GAME OF THE NIGHT on Oregon State +15

The Oregon State Beavers are way undervalued heading into this showdown with UCLA tonight. They are coming off three straight losses to Oregon, Arizona State and Arizona all by 13 points or less. There's no question they'll be hungry for their first Pac-12 victory of the season tonight.

The UCLA Bruins are way overvalued heading into this one due to their current 9-game winning streak coming in. Each of their last six wins have come by 14 points or less, and with Oregon on deck Saturday, this is a huge letdown spot for the Bruins. They will clearly be looking ahead to their showdown with the Ducks this weekend.

Oregon State is a balanced team that features six different players scoring in double figures. They are without one of them in Angus Brandt, but they still have five averaging double digits, which is a rarity in college basketball.

Each of the last five meetings in this series have been decided by 10 points or less. The Bruins are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.

This play falls into a system that is 32-9 (78%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on underdogs of 10 or more points (OREGON ST) - off a cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog against opponent off 2 or more consecutive road wins. Take Oregon State Thursday.

15* Sun Belt GAME OF THE NIGHT on Louisiana-Monroe +12

The LA Monroe Warhawks are showing excellent value as a double-digit road underdog to the South Alabama Jaguars tonight. The Jaguars are certainly overvalued in this spot, and they have been for about a month now as they are just 3-5 ATS in their last 8 games.

Because LA Monroe is just 3-10 on the season, it is clearly undervalued. That is also evident by the fact that it is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games overall. Each of its last four losses have come by 9 points or less to MTSU, Troy, South Alabama, and UAB.

As you can see, they recently played South Alabama earlier this month on January 3rd, falling at home 72-77 as a 7-point underdog. That put the Warhawks in revenge mode as they will be facing the Jaguars twice within two weeks.

Six of South Alabama's eight wins this season came by 11 points or less, and the other two were against William Carey and Arkansas-Little Rock at home.

LA Monroe is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this series dating back to 2009. All five games were decided by 7 points or less and by a COMBINED 19 points! Look for another closely-contested game with the Warhawks possibly pulling off the upset. Take Louisiana-Monroe Thursday.

15* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE NIGHT on Duquesne +10

The Duquesne Dukes should not be catching double-digits tonight at UMass. The Minutemen are clearly overvalued heading into this one due to winning eight of the last nine contests overall.

UMass has been extremely fortunate during this recent run as seven of its last eight wins have come by 9 points or less. In fact, the Minutemen are 11-4 this season, but only one of those eleven wins came by more than 9 points. That was a 75-61 home victory over Eastern Michigan as a 15-point favorite.

Duquesne is undervalued heading in due to its 7-9 start, which includes four straight losses all as underdogs. Remember, this is a team that beat West Virginia 60-56 as an 8-point dog, while also falling at Georgetown 55-61 as a 14-point dog earlier this season. This team is much better than its 7-9 record would indicate.

UMass was dealt a big blow when it lost second-leading scorer Jesse Morgan (13.4 PPG) to a season-ending ACL injury on January 10th in a 62-70 loss at Saint Louis. I look for the Minutemen to really struggle without him the rest of the way, and to not be so fortunate in these close games.

You have to go back to 2008 to find the last time that Duquesne lost to UMass by more than 9 points. The Dukes have won four of their last six meetings in this series.

UMass is 0-7 ATS off a road no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite since 1997. The Minutemen are 1-8 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. Roll with Duquesne Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Troy +7.5

The Troy Trojans are showing excellent value as an 8-point underdog to the Florida Atlantic Owls tonight. These are two very evenly-matched teams with Troy coming in at 7-10, and FAU sporting a 9-9 record. I look for the Trojans to give the Owls a run for their money, possibly pulling off the upset.

The biggest reason I'm backing Troy is that this team is clearly undervalued due to its 7-10 record. I have no doubt that the Trojans are better than their record would indicate. That's evident by the fact that six of their last seven losses have come by 7 points or less. They have simply been victim of bad luck in close games.

Troy has turned the corner with back-to-back wins over Arkansas-Little Rock and LA-Monroe heading into this one. Now, it wants revenge from a 54-61 home loss to FAU on December 27th. The Owls are coming off a big win at Western Kentucky last time out, setting them up for a huge letdown spot here against a team they have already beaten once this season.

Florida Atlantic is 0-6 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 2 seasons. It is losing in this spot 67.0 to 71.3 on average. The Owls are 0-6 ATS after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons. They are losing in this spot 66.1 to 69.0. Bet Troy Thursday.

15* Wizards/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Washington +4

It's no coincidence that the Washington Wizards have won three straight games heading into this contest with Sacramento Wednesday. After knocking off the Oklahoma City Thunder 101-99 on January 7th, John Wall returned to help lead the Wizards to a 93-83 win over the Atlanta Hawks on January 12th.

Wall played an even bigger role in their 120-91 win over the Orlando Magic last time out, scoring 12 points while dishing out six assists in 20 minutes on January 1th. It was also no coincidence that the Wizards had a season-high 29 fast break points against the Magic Monday.

"It just came out of nowhere how fast we're playing now," said Bradley Beal, averaging 18.3 points during the winning streak. "With John back, the speed is so much faster."

"He brings the added dimension that nobody has," coach Randy Wittman said. "Guys have to run harder."

"These games have not been flukes, we've just been playing very well," said guard A.J. Price, who has scored 34 points while shooting 11 of 21 over his last two games. "We lost so many close games that I think once we started losing so many in a row, it became a mental thing."

Now, riding a mental high, I like the Wizards to pick up win No. 4 in a row at Sacramento tonight. The Kings are not playing well right now, losers of four of their last five with their only victory coming at home by a final of 124-118 against the lowly Cleveland Cavaliers. Three of their last four losses have come by 20 points or more.

This play falls into a system that is 45-17 (72.6%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on teams (WASHINGTON) - off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days.

The Wizards are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. win. Washington is 7-1-2 ATS in its last 10 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. The Kings are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Wizards are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Sacramento. The underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Roll with the Wizards Wednesday.

15* NBA Western Conference Total DOMINATOR on Spurs/Grizzlies UNDER 188

This total has been set too high tonight in a battle between the San Antonio Spurs and Memphis Grizzlies. This has become one of the better rivalries in the league over the past few seasons due to their 7-game playoff series back in 2011. The defensive intensity is at an all-time high when these teams get together.

I believe this total has been inflated due to the last two meetings, which both went to overtime. These teams just played on January 11th with Memphis winning 101-98 (OT) at home. The Grizzlies led 95-92 before Tony Parker hit a game-tying 3-pointer at the buzzer to force OT.

The first meeting of the season between these teams took place on December 1st with San Antonio winning 99-95 (OT). This game was tied 87-87 at the end of regulation for 174 combined points.

Essentially, five of the last six meetings in this series saw 187 or less combined points at the end of regulation (not counting Parker's buzzer-beater). Having just played each other less than a week ago, these teams are very familiar with one another, and familiarity breeds low-scoring, defensive battles.

Another big factor in favor of the UNDER is the fact that Manu Ginobli will be out the next 10-14 days after suffering a Grade 1 hamstring strain on January 13th against the Timberwolves. Ginobli is one of the team's leading scorers, and he's great at penetrating the lane and creating easy shots for teammates. His loss certainly benefits the UNDER.

The UNDER is 41-20-1 in Grizzlies last 62 overall. Memphis is 10-1 to the UNDER versus good passing teams, averaging >=23 assists/game over the last 2 seasons. San Antonio is 16-2 to the UNDER in home games in January games over the last 3 seasons.

The UNDER is 6-0 in Spurs last 6 games playing on 2 days rest. The UNDER is 4-0 in Spurs last 4 home games. The UNDER is 4-0 in Grizzlies last 4 games following a S.U. loss. The UNDER is 4-0 in Grizzlies last 4 games following a ATS loss. Memphis is 7-0 to the UNDER after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread this season. These five trends combine for a perfect 25-0 system backing the UNDER. Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Rockets/Mavs ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Dallas -4

The Dallas Mavericks are one of the most underrated teams in the league due to their 16-23 start. I have backed them with success as a free pick in each of their last three games with a 117-112 win at Sacramento, a 104-83 home win over Memphis, and a 113-98 home victory over Minnesota.

Dallas makes the premium card Wednesday as my featured top play as a small home favorite over the Houston Rockets tonight. Dirk Nowitzki is finally healthy and he has returned to the starting line-up, which is the biggest reason for the Mavericks' turnaround.

Houston is overvalued due to getting off to a 21-14 start, but it has come back down to reality here of late. The Rockets have lost four straight to fall to 21-18 on the season. They'll lose No. 5 in a row tonight in blowout fashion at Dallas.

This is a very tired Rockets team, and that is really starting to show of late. They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days, which is about as tough a situation as you will find in the NBA. They simply won't have the legs to keep up with the Mavericks tonight.

Dallas simply owns Houston. It has won eight straight meetings with the Rockets will going 7-1 ATS in the process. In fact, it has covered six straight meetings in this series dating back to 2011.

Houston is 1-11 ATS in road games after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. The Rockets are 1-9 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. Houston is 25-8 ATS after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. Bet the Mavericks Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Boston College +6.5

The Boston College Eagles are showing great value as a home underdog to the Miami Hurricanes tonight. Boston College is one of the most underrated teams in the country. It is clearly turning the corner under veteran head coach Steve Donahue.

The Eagles are off to a solid 9-7 start this season while returning four starters from last year, which was Donahue's first with the program. Four of their seven losses have come by 5 points or less, including a 73-78 home loss to a very good NC State team. The Eagles are a solid 7-3 at home this season.

Miami is clearly overvalued heading into this one after winning four in a row SU & ATS coming in. This is a big letdown spot for the Hurricanes considering they have Duke on deck. This smell like a trap game for them, and I fully expect Boston College to win outright.

Miami is 0-7 ATS in road games after scoring 25 points or less in the first half last game over the last 3 seasons. It is losing in this spot by 8.8 points/game. All three of Miami's losses have come on the road this season. The Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Take Boston College Wednesday.

15* Big Ten GAME OF THE NIGHT on Penn State +12

The Penn State Nittany Lions are showing excellent value at home tonight against the Michigan State Spartans. I'll gladly back them as a double-digit home underdog as they look to build on their 7-3 home record this season.

Michigan State is one of the most overvalued teams in the country, which is obvious due to its 5-9 ATS record. It is ranked in the Top 25 due to a fortunate 14-3 start that has seen eight wins by 12 points or less. That includes a 66-56 home win over Nebraska as a 17-point favorite last time out.

This is a huge letdown spot for the Spartans considering their next four games after this will be against Top 25 opponents. There's no question these players are looking ahead to those four games and overlooking the Nittany Lions tonight. Even coach Tom Izzo believes that is very possible.

"I worry that maybe we're looking at (the records of the opposition)," Izzo said. "I guess we've got one more game and then we've got (four of the next five) against ranked teams or whatever. So, maybe we'll play better then, but we've got to play better Wednesday to win on the road."

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series. The home team is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series. Penn State beat Michigan State 61-48 in its last home meeting.

Michigan State is 0-7 ATS after allowing 65 points or less 2 straight games this season. The Spartans are 0-6 ATS after playing 2 consecutive games as favorite this season. Michigan State is 1-8 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins this season. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. These four trends combine for a 25-1 system backing the Nittany Lions. Roll with Penn State Wednesday.

15* ACC GAME OF THE NIGHT on Maryland -1.5

The NC State Wolfpack are in a huge letdown spot tonight. They are coming off an 84-76 home victory over previously unbeaten and No. 1 Duke on Saturday. Off such a big win, it's only human nature for a team like the Wolfpack to suffer a letdown their next time out.

Off back-to-back close losses to Florida State (62-65) and Miami (47-54), the Maryland Terrapins are hungry for a victory tonight. They'll be ready to go against a Top 25 opponent while looking to improve upon their 11-1 home record this season. The Terrapins are outscoring opponents by 18.2 points/game at home this year.

Maryland has won nine of its last 10 meetings with NC State dating back to 2007. Looking back further, the Terrapins are 23-7 SU & 22-8 ATS in the last 30 meetings in this series. Maryland is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 meetings with the Wolfpack.

The Terrapins are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. loss. NC State is 7-18 ATS after 5 or more consecutive wins since 1997. Maryland is 7-0 ATS in home games after playing a game where both teams score 65 points or less since 1997. It is winning in this spot by 16.7 points/game. Bet Maryland Wednesday.

15* Conference USA GAME OF THE NIGHT on Rice +20

The Rice Owls are showing perhaps their best value of the season as a 20-point home underdog to the Memphis Tigers. While Rice is off to just a 3-12 start this season, I believe that former UCLA coach Ben Braun has this program headed in the right direction.

The Owls do have some impressive showings this season as big underdogs where they covered the spread. They lost at Temple 63-67 as a 26-point underdog, and they fell at Texas 41-57 at Texas as an 18-point dog, covering the spread in each contest.

Off five straight losses and three straight non-covers, the price is right to back the Owls tonight. Meanwhile, the Tigers are way overvalued due to their current six-game winning streak. They have some unimpressive performances in the role of the big favorite this year.

Memphis beat Samford 65-54 as a 26-point home favorite, beat Austin Peay 83-65 as a 28-point home favorite, beat Lipscomb 62-56 in a non-lined home game, beat Oral Roberts 72-57 in a non-lined home game, and topped East Carolina 67-54 as a 15-point home favorite. The Tigers failed to beat all five of these inferior opponents at home by more than 18 points, which is why I believe Rice is a great bet at home tonight as a 20-point dog.

The Tigers are 2-10 ATS versus terrible teams - outscored by their opponents by 8+ points/game since 1997. The Owls are 16-6 ATS in home games after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games since 1997. Braun is 29-11 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games in all games he has coached since 1997.

The home team is a perfect 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings, which dates back to 2006. The Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings at Rice. Bet Rice Wednesday.

15* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Vanderbilt +9

The Vanderbilt Commodores are showing great value as a 9-point home underdog to the Ole Miss Rebels Tuesday night. I'll gladly take advantage and back them in a game that I believe they have an excellent chance to win outright.

Ole Miss is way overvalued coming into this one due to its 13-2 start and its 5-game winning streak coming in. That's especially the case considering it beat Tennessee on the road before knocking off No. 10 Missouri at home in its last two games, respectively. The Rebels are in a big letdown spot tonight, and they cannot live up to the expectations they have created for themselves from oddsmakers.

Vanderbilt is undervalued heading into this one due to its 6-8 start and losses in four of its last five games. Those four losses have all come to very good teams in Butler, Kentucky, Arkansas and Middle Tennessee State. Off their most embarrassing loss of the season with a 33-56 setback at Arkansas, there's no question the Commodores return home highly motivated for a victory tonight.

The Commodores have won five straight and eleven of their last 12 meetings with the Rebels. Vanderbilt is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 vs. SEC opponents. The Commodores are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Vanderbilt is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 home games. The Commodores are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following an ATS loss. Roll with Vanderbilt Tuesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Rockets -1.5

The Houston Rockets will be highly motivated for a victory tonight as they host the Los Angeles Clippers. They have lost three straight coming in, all of which were on the road. They'll be more than happy to return home tonight where they are 14-6 SU & 13-7 ATS on the season.

The Los Angeles Clippers miraculously blew out Memphis on the road last night 99-73 despite playing without Chris Paul. Teams can usually get by one game without a superstar, but when that superstar misses more than one game in a row they start to really miss him.

Paul (knee) is expected to miss tonight's game at Houston as his is listed as doubtful. The Clippers are clearly overvalued heading into this one because of how well they played without Paul against Memphis, which was playing without leading scorer Rudy Gay. I fully expect LA to get blown out tonight by a hungry Houston team that simply wants this one more.

The Rockets will be the more rested team heading into this one as well. They come in on two days' rest having last played on Saturday. Meanwhile, the Clippers will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days. The Rockets are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 2 days rest.

Houston is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Rockets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games. The Clippers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 75 points in their previous game. Bet the Rockets Tuesday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference Total DOMINATOR on Pacers/Bobcats UNDER 186

The Indiana Pacers and Charlotte Bobcats will take part in a defensive battle tonight. These are two very familiar teams as this will be their 3rd meeting of the season and their 2nd meeting in 4 days. Familiarity leads to low-scoring games as both teams know what the other is trying to accomplish offensively, making it easier to stop.

The UNDER is 4-0-1 in the last five meetings in this series. The Bobcats and Pacers have combined for 190 or fewer points in all five meetings, including 184 or less in four of the five. That includes a 90-89 Charlotte victory on 11/02 for 179 combined points, and a 96-88 Indiana victory on 1/12 for 184 combined points in their two meetings this season.

Indiana plays at one of the slowest paces in the league. It is scoring just 90.9 points/game and allowing 89.3 points/game on the season, combining with its opponents to average 180.2 points/game. It is scoring a mere 87.9 points/game on the road this year.

The Pacers have scored 96 or fewer points in eight straight games while allowing 97 or fewer in eight straight as well. Charlotte has scored 89 or fewer points in three straight games, averaging just 85.3 points/game during this span.

Indiana is 18-4 to the UNDER after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. The UNDER is 7-1 in Pacers last 8 games overall. The UNDER is 16-5-1 in Pacers last 22 vs. Eastern Conference.

The UNDER is 5-0 in Pacers last 5 games playing on 1 days rest. The UNDER is 5-0-1 in Bobcats last 6 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The UNDER is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings. These three trends combine for a perfect 14-0 system backing the UNDER. Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference Total DOMINATOR on Hawks/Bulls UNDER 184.5

Both the Atlanta Hawks and Chicago Bulls will be hungry for a win tonight, which means their level of intensity defensively will be at an all-time high. I look for a very low-scoring game tonight when these two get together because of it.

Atlanta has lost five of its last six, and it is coming off an 83-93 loss at Washington. It is scoring just 89.5 points/game during this stretch, and 93.4 points/game on the road this season. However, it is holding opponents by 94.2 points/game on the road.

Chicago is one of the best defensive teams in the league. It is allowing just 92.3 points/game overall, including 90.8 points/game at home. However, it is one of the worst offensive teams in the game, scoring 93.5 points/game overall and 91.7 at home.

Recent meeting between the Hawks and Bulls have been typically low scoring. Each of the last three meetings saw 167, 175 and 169 combined points, respectively. In fact, they have combined for 178 or fewer points in six of their last seven meetings.

Chicago is 13-2 UNDER in home games after having lost 2 of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons. The Bulls are 14-2 UNDER revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons. Atlanta is 27-10 UNDER after having lost 3 of their last 4 games over the last 3 seasons. Roll with the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Western Conference Total ANNIHILATOR on Clippers/Grizzlies UNDER 184

The Los Angeles Clippers and Memphis Grizzlies are becoming bitter rivals. They played in a seven-game series last May in the playoffs, which has fueled the fire for their regular season meetings this year. I look for the defensive intensity to be high between these familiar foes tonight.

Looking at the recent meetings between these teams, it's easy to see that there is some value with the UNDER tonight. Five of the last six meetings have seen 178 or few points at the end of regulation. Also, four of those six have gone UNDER the posted total, and another would have if not for overtime after an 87-87 tie at the end of regulation.

A big factor as to why I like the UNDER in this contest is the fact that Memphis is going to be without leading scorer Rudy Gay (17.8 PPG), who will miss tonight's game to attend his grandmother's funeral. The Grizzlies will likely be a little lost offensively without him considering they run so many plays for him.

Memphis is 9-1 UNDER versus good passing teams, averaging >=23 assists/game over the last 2 seasons. The Grizzlies are 8-0 UNDER off an upset loss as a road favorite over the last 2 seasons. Memphis is 7-0 UNDER after scoring 85 points or less this season. These three trends combine for a 24-1 (96%) system backing the UNDER. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

Note: This total has dropped to as low as 180.5 in some places since I posted it this morning. I still recommend the UNDER at 180 or higher.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Wizards -2

The Washington Wizards are one of the most undervalued teams in the league right now due to their 6-28 start. They should be a much bigger favorite tonight against the Orlando Magic.

Washington is finally getting healthy as PG John Wall has recently returned to the line-up. It has won its last two games with impressive victories over the Oklahoma City Thunder and Atlanta Hawks. This will be just the Wizards' 2nd game in 7 days, so they'll be well rested and ready to go.

Orlando is in a big letdown spot here. It is coming off a huge 104-101 road win over the Los Angeles Clippers on Saturday. Off such a big win, it will be hard for these players to get up emotionally to play the Wizards tonight.

The home team has won three straight and six of the last seven in this series. The home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. The Wizards are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. The Magic are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Washington is 8-1 ATS versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting <=21 free throws/game this season. The Wizards are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings with Orlando. Take Washington Monday.

20* Louisville/UConn ESPN Big Monday No-Brainer on Connecticut +7.5

The Connecticut Huskies should not be an underdog at home to the Louisville Cardinals tonight, let alone a 7-point dog. I'll gladly back these underrated Huskies showing their best value of the season tonight.

Connecticut is 12-3 under first-year head coach Kevin Ollie. Their three losses have all come by 6 points or less on the road against New Mexico (60-66), NC State (65-69) and Marquette (76-82). Those are three very good teams that will likely be playing in the NCAA Tournament at season's end.

UConn is coming off a 65-58 win at Notre Dame as an 8.5-point underdog to really show what it is capable of. The Huskies are a perfect 8-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 15.3 points/game.

Louisville comes in overvalued due to its 15-1 start. It has opened with a very soft Big East schedule with wins over Providence, Seton Hall and South Florida. It now takes a step up in competition and will not be able to live up to the expectations it has created for itself from oddsmakers.

Rick Pitino is 4-12 ATS in road games after 3 straight wins by 10 points or more as the coach of Louisville. The Huskies are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. UConn is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 vs. Big East foes. Bet UConn Monday.

15* Michigan/Ohio State Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Ohio State -1.5

The Ohio State Buckeyes should be a much bigger home favorite today against the Michigan Wolverines. I'll gladly take advantage and back the Buckeyes showing their best value of the season today.

Michigan is way overvalued due to its perfect 16-0 start this season. This is a very good team, but it has only played two true road games all season, and those came against overmatched Bradley and Northwestern. This will easily be the Wolverines' toughest challenge yet.

Ohio State will be highly motivated to put an end to the Wolverines' perfect start. Its fans will be rocking the building in this one, giving them the added emotional lift they need to pull off the win. The Buckeyes are 9-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 25.8 points/game.

The Buckeyes are 9-0 ATS in home games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=37% of their attempts over the last 3 seasons. They are winning in this spot by an average of 27.7 points/game. Roll with Ohio State Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Raptors -2

The Toronto Raptors are one of the most underrated teams in the league. They should be a much bigger favorite at home against the Milwaukee Bucks today.

Toronto is playing its best basketball of the season right now. It has won 10 of its last 13 games overall with its three losses coming to the Spurs, Thunder and Kings. Its last four wins have all come by 18 points or more. Toronto is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 home games.

The Raptors are a perfect 7-0 ATS after 2 or more consecutive unders this season. Toronto is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. The Raptors are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. These three trends combine for a 22-1 system backing the Raptors. Take Toronto Sunday.

15* Hornets/Knicks NBA Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 193

Oddsmakers have set the bar too high in this contest between the New Orleans Hornets and New York Knicks. I look for a low-scoring affair between two of the better defensive teams in the league.

New York is giving up just 96.3 points/game at home this season. Off three straight losses, including two in which it allowed over 100 points, the Knicks will clamp down defensively in this one. They'll be up against a Hornets team that is scoring just 92.0 points/game.

These teams met twice last season with the UNDER going 2-0. New Orleans beat New York 89-85 at home for 174 combined points, while the Knicks beat the Hornets at home 102-80 for 182 combined points. I look for a similarly low scoring game here. The UNDER is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings in New York. The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings over..

New York is 19-6 UNDER when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last 2 seasons. The Knicks are 10-1 UNDER as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 5-0 in Hornets last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The UNDER is 17-4 in Hornets last 21 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The UNDER is 7-1 in Knicks last 8 games following a ATS loss. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -2

The Detroit Pistons are playing their best basketball of the season heading into this contest with the Utah Jazz. Detroit has won seven of its last nine games overall with its two losses both coming in overtime. It even has home wins over the Heat, Hawks and Bucks during this stretch.

Utah is a completely different team home and away. It is 11-4 at home this season, but just 8-15 on the road. That includes a 95-103 road loss at Atlanta last night. Detroit is a very respectable 10-9 at home this season, limiting opponents to just 93.5 points/game. Utah is allowing nearly 102.0 points/game on the road.

The Jazz are a very tired team right now. They will be playing the second of a back-to-back, their 3rd game in 4 days, and their 6th game in 9 days. Meanwhile, the Pistons will be playing just their 3rd game in 6 days. I'll gladly back the fresher, hotter team as only a small home favorite in this one.

The home team has won three straight and five of the last six in this series. The Jazz are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Utah is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games playing on 0 days' rest. The Jazz are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Saturday games. Roll with the Pistons Saturday.

15* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas +8.5

The Iowa State Cyclones are in a big letdown spot here tonight. I look for them to suffer a hangover from their brutal 89-97 road loss at Kansas in overtime on Wednesday. The Jayhawks banked in a 3-pointer to send the game to OT.

Texas comes in highly motivated for its first Big 12 victory of the season. It has lost a pair of heartbreakers with a 79-86 loss at Baylor and a 53-57 home setback against West Virginia. The value is clearly with the hungry road underdog in this one.

Texas really owns Iowa State having won nine of the last ten meetings in this series. Its only loss during this stretch came by 6 points on the road last season. The road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.

The Longhorns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss. Texas is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Cyclones are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Take Texas Saturday.

15* Duke/NC State ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on NC State +4.5

The NC State Wolf Pack will show Saturday why they were picked my many to win the ACC this season. They will hand the Duke Blue Devils their first loss of the season behind inspiration from a rowdy home crowd.

NC State is 13-2 this season with its only losses coming on the road against Michigan and Oklahoma State. The Wolf Pack are a perfect 9-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 17.5 points/game.

Duke is way overvalued due to its 15-0 start and No. 1 ranking. However, this will be the FIRST true road game of the season for the Blue Devils Saturday. That's right, they have played 15 games and have yet to play a true road game, which is the biggest reason they are so overrated right now.

This play falls into a system that is 38-9 (80.9%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DUKE) - after allowing 60 points or less against opponent after scoring 75 points or more 2 straight games.

Duke is 0-7 ATS after allowing 65 points or less 3 straight games over the last 3 seasons. The Blue Devils are 2-11 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game over the last 3 seasons. Duke is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 vs. ACC opponents. The Wolf Pack are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. ACC foes. Bet NC State Saturday.

15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Memphis Grizzlies -2

The Memphis Grizzlies will be highly motivated to beat the San Antonio Spurs and put an end to their losing streak in this series. Memphis has lost five straight to San Antonio since knocking the Spurs out in the first round of the 2011 NBA playoffs. That includes a 95-99 overtime loss at San Antonio in their first meeting of the season on December 1st.

That home victory by the Spurs was no surprise considering the home team has dominated this series, winning 12 of the last 15 meetings. Memphis is 13-4 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 6.7 points/game while limiting foes to 86.7 points/game.

San Antonio is a mediocre 13-8 on the road where it is giving up 100.1 points/game. The Spurs really have not played all that well of late, failing to cover the spread in three of their last four. They have lost their last two road games with an 83-100 setback at New York and an 88-95 loss at New Orleans.

Memphis is a perfect 10-0 ATS versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. It is outscoring these good teams 98.9 to 88.3, or by an average of 10.6 points/game. As you can see, this is a team that takes their game up a notch when playing against the best competition the league has to offer. Roll with the Grizzlies Friday.

15* Bulls/Knicks ESPN Friday No-Brainer on UNDER 191.5

Oddsmakers have set the bar way too high in this game between the New York Knicks and Chicago Bulls. I'll gladly take advantage by backing the UNDER in a contest that will be nationally televised on ESPN tonight. These National TV games always seem to bring out better top defensive effort by both teams.

New York is much worse off offensively without Raymond Felton, who remains out with a finger injury. Felton is great at running the pick and roll, and the Knicks simply do not have an ample replacement for him. They are coming off a 76-point effort at Indiana last night as they shot just 34.8% from the floor.

Chicago is one of the best defensive teams in the league. It is giving up just 91.9 points/game this season on 43.3 percent shooting. However, the Bulls are one of the worst offensive teams in the game. They are scoring only 93.4 points/game on 43.9 percent shooting this year.

The Bulls and Knicks had combined for 184 or less points in three straight meetings (at the end of regulation) before a 110-106 road win by Chicago earlier this season on December 21st. However, New York went off to 45 points in the 4th quarter as the teams combined for 72 in the final period, and that's not going to happen again.

Chicago is 16-4 to the UNDER as an underdog over the last 2 seasons. Better yet, the Bulls are 9-1 to the UNDER as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons. They are combining with their opponents for for an average of 175.5 points/game in this spot. The UNDER is 20-6 in Bulls last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on New Orleans Hornets -2

The New Orleans Hornets are one of the most undervalued teams in the league right now due to their 10-25 start. This team has been battling injuries all season as C Anthony Davis (13.4 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 1.9 BPG) and SG Eric Gordon (15.6 PPG, 4.4 APG) have missed a combined 43 games this season.

However, both Davis and Gordon are back and healthy, and this team is really playing up to its potential now because of it. In fact, the Hornets have won three straight games outright as underdogs. They went on the road to beat Dallas 99-96 as a 6-point dog before coming back home to top San Antonio 95-88 as an 8-point dog, and Houston 88-79 as a 2-point dog.

I have backed the Hornets with success in each of their last two games, and I'm going to continue to back them tonight against the Minnesota Timberwolves because I believe they are still undervalued as only a 2-point favorite. This is a Minnesota team that remains without Kevin Love, and one that is coming off an ugly 84-106 loss at Oklahoma City.

New Orleans lost to Minnesota 102-113 in their first meeting of the season on December 14th. That loss works in its favor considering it is 26-12 ATS revenging a same season loss vs. opponent over the last 2 seasons. The Timberwolves are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. Western Conference. Minnesota is 5-13 ATS in its last 18 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Bet the Hornets Friday.

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Atlanta Hawks -4.5

The Atlanta Hawks will be highly motivated for a win tonight as they welcome the Utah Jazz to their home court Friday night. Atlanta is 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games overall, so it is clearly undervalued right now as only a 4.5-point home favorite over the Jazz.

Look for the Hawks (20-14) to put forth their best effort of the season tonight as they try and put an end to this 4-game skid. Atlanta is 11-6 at home this season, limiting opponents to 96.8 points/game.

Utah is just 8-14 on the road this year, giving up 101.5 points/game. The Jazz are overvalued after winning four of their last five with all four wins coming against the Timberwolves, Suns, Mavs and Bobcats, who are all .500 or worse this season.

The Jazz are 0-8 ATS in road games off a road win over the last 2 seasons. They are losing in this spot 88.8 to 99.0, or by an average of 10.2 points/game. They just cannot seem to string together road wins. They'll be up against a very hungry Atlanta team tonight. Take the Hawks Friday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -2.5

I have been riding the Boston Celtics here of late with a lot of success. Boston is riding a current four-game winning streak, which is their longest of the season. I have been on them in all four games with the Celtics posting a 3-1 ATS mark. Their only ATS loss came by a single point in an 8-point win over Phoenix as a 9-point favorite.

The reason I'm riding this team right now is because they are finally at full strength. One of the most underrated players in the league, guard Avery Bradley, has returned from injury to provide a big spark. He is the best perimeter defender in the league in my opinion, and he will make life very difficult on James Harden tonight.

Houston has been on an incredible run of late, but as a result it is overvalued. The Rockets have won 10 of their last 13 games overall, but they just had their five-game winning streak snapped with a 79-88 loss at New Orleans on Wednesday. With their momentum halted, I look for the Rockets to suffer a second straight defeat on the road tonight.

This play falls into a system that is 27-4 (87.1%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (HOUSTON) - terrible defensive team - allowing 103+ points/game on the season, after scoring 85 points or less. Bet the Celtics Friday.

15* Heat/Blazers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Miami -3

The Miami Heat are highly motivated for a victory tonight. They have lost four of their last seven games overall, including a 77-87 road loss at Indiana on Tuesday. I believe they are actually undervalued right now due to their recent struggles, and they should be a bigger favorite over Portland in this one.

The Blazers have been playing very well of late, but as a result they are overvalued. They have won 11 of their last 14 games overall, but they have mostly been beating up on inferior opponents. They will finally meet their match tonight in the defending champion Heat.

The road team has won five straight and six of the last seven in this series. The road team is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings. Miami is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 meetings in Portland, winning the last three outright.

The Heat are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. NBA Northwest opponents. The Blazers are 6-20-1 ATS in their last 27 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Portland is 4-19 ATS after having won 4 of its last 5 games over the last 3 seasons. The Blazers are 3-12 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. Take the Heat Thursday.

15* Kentucky/Vanderbilt ESPN Thursday No-Brainer on Vanderbilt +13

The Vanderbilt Commodores are undervalued today as a double-digit home underdog to the Kentucky Wildcats. This is a team that has clearly improved as the season has gone along, winning four of their last six while covering the spread in four of their last five lined games.

Kentucky comes into this game way overvalued after covering the spread in each of its last five games overall. It has played an extremely soft schedule while winning five of its last six with all five victories coming at home against Samford, Portland, Lipscomb, Marshall and Eastern Michigan. It is not just going to roll Vanderbilt on the road tonight.

This has been a very closely-contested series in recent years to say the least. Each of the last six meetings have been decided by 9 points or less. In fact, each of the last nine meetings were decided by 13 points or fewer, making for a 9-0 system backing the Commodores pertaining to tonight's spread.

Vanderbilt is 6-0 ATS after a game where they made 53% of their free throws or worse over the last 2 seasons. It is winning in this spot by an average of 14.5 points/game. Add that 9-0 trend to this 6-0 one and we have a perfect 15-0 system backing the Commodores tonight. Bet Vanderbilt Thursday.

20* Knicks/Pacers TNT GAME OF THE WEEK on Indiana -4.5

The Indiana Pacers are rolling right now, and they're not about to cool off on National TV against the depleted New York Knicks tonight. Indiana has won 11 of its last 14 games overall heading into this one.

The Pacers have been absolutely dominant at home this season. They have gone 13-3 SU & 10-6 ATS at home, outscoring opponents by 7.8 points/game. They are limiting foes to just 87.3 points/game at home this year. The Pacers have won eight straight home games coming in with all eight victories by 5 points or more, including an 87-77 win over the defending champion Miami Heat on Tuesday.

The New York Knicks have really cooled off after a fast start this season. They are just 5-6 SU in their last 11 games overall, including 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games. Their recent struggles have coincided with an injury to PG Raymond Felton (finger), who has missed the past six games. Also, leading scorer Carmelo Anthony (29.0 PPG) has been suspended for tonight's game, further hurting the team.

Indiana has won 28 of its last 39 home meetings with New York. The Pacers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Knicks are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games. New York is 0-3-1 ATS in its last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Bet the Pacers Thursday.

15* Miami/UNC ESPN Thursday ANNIHILATOR North Carolina -4

The North Carolina Tar Heels should be a much heavier home favorite tonight over the Miami Hurricanes. North Carolina will be highly motivated to bounce back from a 52-61 loss at Virginia on Saturday as it returns home where it has played well all season.

UNC is 7-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in all home games this year, outscoring opponents by an average of 18.3 points/game. It has a few impressive home wins this year, including a 79-73 victory over a very good UNLV team as only a 2-point favorite.

Miami comes into this game overvalued after winning its last two games, including a 62-49 victory at Georgia Tech on Saturday. Remember, this is the same team that lost 50-69 to Arizona, and 55-57 to Indiana State in late December on a neutral court.

North Carolina is 10-0 SU in its last 10 meetings with Miami. The Tar Heels are 7-0 ATS off a road loss over the last 3 seasons, winning in this spot by 18.5 points/game. UNC is 6-0 ATS after a game where they made 53% of their free throws or worse over the last 2 seasons, winning in this spot by 20.5 points/game. These three trends combined for a perfect 23-0 system backing the Tar Heels. Roll with North Carolina Thursday.