15* NBA Monday UPSET SHOCKER on Sacramento Kings +2.5

The New Orleans Pelicans are in a terrible spot tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, their 5th game in 7 days and their 8th game in 12 days tonight.  They struggled with the Cavaliers last night and needed a late comeback to win 116-109 as 9-pint favorites.

They showed the fatigue against the Cavaliers last night, and it's going to be even worse tonight against the Kings.  Five different players played at least 31 minutes for the Pelicans last night, including 35 from Brandon Ingram and 36 from Zion Williamson.  Don't be surprised if Stan Van Gundy rests one or both tonight.

The Kings will test those tired legs because they like to push the tempo, playing at the 8th-fastest pace in the NBA this season.  They are rested and ready to go playing just their 3rd game in 7 days.  And it's a great time to 'buy low' on them off six straight losses against a very tough schedule.

The Kings have the Pelicans' number in going 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings.  New Orleans is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games as a home favorite.  The Pelicans are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  New Orleans is 6-18 ATS in its last 24 games after scoring 115 points or more.

The Pelicans are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the 2nd half of the season.  New Orleans is 1-13 ATS in its last 14 home games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 46% shooting or higher in the 2nd half of the season.  Roll with the Kings Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +11.5

You're definitely paying a tax on the Utah Jazz at this point in the season due to having the best record in the NBA at 40-13.  Now they are laying double-digits to the Washington Wizards despite being without two of their best players in Mike Conley and Jordan Clarkson.

Meanwhile, the Washington Wizards are basically fully healthy right now and that hasn't been the case for much of the season.  Bradley Beal (30.9 PPG) was out from March 27th through April 7th.  He returned for two games against Orland and Golden State, and the Wizards won 131-116 over the Magic and upset the Warriors 110-107.  He sat out the 106-134 loss to Phoenix on the 2nd of a back-to-back, but he is expected back in the lineup tonight.

Washington hasn't lost any of its last four meetings with Utah by more than 11 points.  In fact, the Wizards pulled the 131-122 upset as 10.5-point dogs on March 18th in their first meeting this season.  Beal had 43 points in that game while Westbrook had 35 points, 15 rebounds and 13 assists.  With these two healthy the Wizards can hang with the Jazz again tongiht.

Plays against favorites of 10 or more points (Utah) - after a blowout win by 15 points or more against an opponent that scored 55 points or more in the first half of two straight games are 38-12 (76%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Wizards Monday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Wizards/Jazz OVER 234

The Utah Jazz have been an offensive juggernaut all season.  They rank 3rd in the NBA in offensive efficiency at 115.6 points per 100 possessions.  Amazingly, the Jazz have now scored 111 or more points in 34 of their last 36 games overall.

They should be able to name their score against a Washington Wizards team that plays no defense.  The Wizards rank 26th in defensive efficiency this season, giving up 111.4 points per 100 possessions.  They also play at the fastest pace in the entire NBA at 106.2 possessions per game, which is 1.5 possessions per than 2nd place, so they are a dead nuts OVER team.

The Wizards will definitely be able to keep pace with the Jazz now that they are basically fully healthy.  Bradley Beal (30.9 PPG) was out from March 27th through April 7th.  He returned for two games and scored 26 against Orlando and 20 against Golden State before sitting out the 2nd of a back-to-back against Phoenix.  Now he's back for this contest against Utah.

The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in this series.  They have combined for 253, 248, 243 and 252 points in those four meetings and are averaging 249 combined points per game in those four meetings, none of which went to overtime.  So we are basically getting 15 points of value on this OVER 234 tonight.

Washington is 15-3 OVER in its last 18 games as an underdog of 10 or more points.  The Wizards are 9-1 OVER in their last 10 games against dominant rebounding teams that outrebound their opponents by 5-plus boards per game.  Washington is 8-0 OVER vs. very good teams that outscore their opponents by 6-plus points per game this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Late-Night BAILOUT on Heat/Blazers OVER 221.5

The Blazers were already a dead nuts OVER team because they rank 29th in defensive efficiency this season, giving up 114.3 points per 100 possessions.  And now they are an offensive juggernaut with the trade for Norman Powell from the Raptors and getting CJ McCollum back from injury in recent weeks.

The Blazers have scored at least 109 points in nine of their last 10 games overall.  They have also scored 108 or more points in 17 of their last 20 games overall.  They rank 7th in the NBA in offensive efficiency this season and have been even better than that in recent weeks.

Portland beat Miami 125-122 on March 25th for 247 combined points.  The OVER is now 5-1 in the last six meetings with 224 or more combined points in each of the last five meetings.  They have averaged 232.2 combined points at the end of regulation in those five meetings, which is roughly 11 points more than this 221.5-point total, so we are getting great value with this OVER.

The OVER Is 4-0 in Miami's last four games overall.  The OVER is 4-0 in Miami's last four games vs. a team with a winning record.  The OVER is 12-4 in Blazers last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The OVER is 12-5 in Blazers last 17 games playing on zero rest.  Portland is 14-3 OVER in its last 17 games following two or more consecutive unders.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Bulls/Timberwolves OVER 230.5

The Chicago Bulls are playing great offensively now that they have Nikola Vucevic from the Magic combining with LaVine, White and company.  This is one of the more underrated teams in the NBA now in the Bulls, who haver scored 106 or more points in six consecutive games.

They face a Timberwolves team that will have no problem getting up and down with them.  The Timberwolves rank 3rd in the NBA in pace this season and just got De'Angelo Russell back from injury and will speed up the tempo even more now.  They also rank 27th in defensive efficiency this season.

The Timberwolves combined for 278 points with the Pacers two games ago in a 137-141 loss in regulation.  Then they went to OT against the Celtics last time out in a game that saw 248 combined points at the end of regulation.  And the Bulls and Timberwolves squared off earlier this season on February 24th in a game that saw 238 combined points at the end of regulation.

The OVER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.  The OVER is 14-6 in the last 20 meetings in Minnesota.  The OVER is 7-2 in Timberwolves last nine games vs. a team with a losing record.  Minnesota is 8-1 OVER after allowing 130 points or more this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Pistons/Blazers OVER 223.5

The Blazers were already a dead nuts OVER team because they rank 29th in defensive efficiency this season, giving up 114.3 points per 100 possessions.  And now they are an offensive juggernaut with the trade for Norman Powell from the Raptors and getting CJ McCollum back from injury in recent weeks.

The Blazers have scored at least 109 points in eight of their last nine games overall.  They have also scored 108 or more points in 16 of their last 19 games overall.  They will hang a big number on the Detroit Pistons, who have allowed 124 or more points in three of their last six games coming in.  

But the Pistons are playing much better offensively of late as they have scored 113 or more points in four of their last five games overall.  They have averaged 121.3 points per game in their last three games.  Plus, there's a good chance they get back leading scorer Jerami Grant from injury after sitting out last game.

The OVER is 11-4-1 in Pistons last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The OVER is 5-1 in Pistons last six games playing on one days' rest.  The OVER is 13-5 in the last 18 meetings.  The OVER is 11-4 in Blazers last 15 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Take the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia 76ers -11

The Oklahoma City Thunder have been playing without five of their top six scorers in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Darius Bazley, Al Horford, Luguentz Dort and Mike Muscala.  It's no wonder they have gone just 1-8 SU & 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall with all eight losses by 9 points or more and seven by 11 points or more.

The last five games have been really ugly for the Thunder as they have lost by 37, 48, 24, 11 and 27 points.  That's an average loss of 29.4 points per game, which is why I have no problem laying the big number with the Philadelphia 76ers tonight.

The 76ers shouldn't even be considering a letdown here after getting upset by the New Orleans Pelicans last night.  And I'm not concerned about them playing the 2nd of a back-to-back either because they had two days off prior to that game against the Pelicans, so they should still be fresh enough to put away the overmatched Thunder.

The 76ers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss.  Philadelphia is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven games as a road favorite.  The 76ers are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Thunder are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as home underdogs.  Bet the 76ers Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Raptors/Cavs OVER 216.5

Two teams with little to play for at this point in the Toronto Raptors (20-32) and Cleveland Cavaliers (19-32) square off tonight.  I don't expect much defense to be played at all in this game, and this total is way too low for how these two teams have been playing of late.

The Cavaliers are coming off two of their best offensive performances of the season in scoring 125 points against the Spurs and 129 more against the Thunder.  Collin Sexton and Darius Garland are really starting to find their groove on offense.

The Raptors just haven't been playing much defense lately in giving up 109 or more points in 18 of their last 21 games overall.  But they are still a very efficient offensive team and should be able to hang a number on Cleveland, which ranks 21st in defensive efficiency this season.

The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in this series with 221 or more combined points in five of the six.  They have averaged 228 combined points per game in those six meetings, none of which went to overtime.  So we are getting roughly 11.5 points of line value on this OVER 216.5 based on what they have averaged in their last six meetings.  Roll with the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Houston Rockets +13.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are coming off a massive win over the Phoenix Suns last night in a battle to win the Pacific Division.  This is the perfect letdown spot for them, and I'll gladly fade them in this spot laying 13.5 points to the Houston Rockets.

The Clippers will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  Kawhi Leonard played 37 minutes last night and Paul George 34 minutes.  Don't be surprised to see one or both of them rest tonight.  Either way, they won't be nearly as motivated against the Rockets as they were against the Suns last night, and they definitely won't be as fresh.

The Rockets have been much more competitive since getting their best player in Christian Wood back healthy.  They are 2-0 ATS in their last two games, taking the Suns to the wire in a 130-133 loss as 14-point dogs and actually upsetting the Mavericks 102-93 as 10-point dogs.  They had yesterday off and will be fresh for this game.

The Rockets are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Clippers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  Houston is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Los Angeles.

Plays against favorites of 10 or more points (LA Clippers) - after a home game where both teams scored 100 or more points, playing the 2nd of a back-to-back are 36-13 (73.5%) ATS since 1996.  Roll with the Rockets Friday.

20* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on San Antonio Spurs +7.5

It's time to 'buy low' on the San Antonio Spurs.  They have gone 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall coming in.  But they were a tired team with a lot of games recently.  They had yesterday off and I love the spot for the Spurs.

San Antonio will be out for revenge from a 96-106 road loss at Denver on Wednesday.  This is a double-header so they will be playing in Denver again tonight.  I expect them to be the more motivated team for revenge.

It's time to 'sell high' on the Nuggets after going 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  After already beating the Spurs by double-digits just two days ago, they won't bring the kind of intensity it's going to take to beat the Spurs by 8-plus points tonight.

San Antonio is 22-5 ATS in its last 27 games when revenging a road loss by 10 points or more.  The Spurs are 64-34 ATS in their last 88 games when revenging a loss.  San Antonio is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games as a road underdog.  Take the Spurs Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New York Knicks +2

The New York Knicks will be highly motivated for a victory tonight after losing five of their last six games coming in.  Those losses came to the Heat, Mavericks, Nets, Celtics and Timberwolves with three of them coming by 2 points or less.  So they have played a tough schedule during this run and they have been competitive.

While it's time to 'buy low' on the Knicks, it's definitely time to 'sell high' on the Grizzlies.  They have gone 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  But they have played a pretty weak schedule during this stretch with their only impressive win coming on the road at Miami.

This will be the 4th road game in 6 days for the Grizzlies.  While the Knicks are as healthy as they have been all season, the Grizzlies will be without Clarke, Winslow and Melton.  Ja Morant is battling through a back injury as well, though he is expected to play tonight.

The Knicks are 10-1 ATS at home with a line of +3 to -3 this season.  New York is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games following a SU loss.  The Knicks are 18-8-1 ATS in their last 27 games overall.  Bet the Knicks Friday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Blazers/Jazz OVER 229.5

The Portland Trail Blazers are a dead nuts over team now that they have a healthy CJ McCollum (23.8 PPG, 41.1% 3-pointers) back in the lineup and trading for Norman Powell (19.4 PPG, 43.7% 3-pointers) from the Raptors.   Couple them with Lillard (29.2 PPG, 38% 3-pointers) and Anthony (13.6 PPG, 38.2% 3-pointers) and they are simply tough to tame.

But the Blazers have a key weakness and that is on the other end, where they rank 29th in defensive efficiency.  Only the Kings have been worse in that department.  So they are going to have to try and win shootouts moving forward.  They are 6th in offensive efficiency this season and face a Jazz team that ranks 3rd in offensive efficiency.

The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings in this series with 231 or more combined points in four of those five games and none of them going to overtime.  So there's clearly some value with this OVER 229.5 tonight, especially with the way the Blazers are currently built to operate compared to those previous five meetings.

The OVER is 5-0 in Blazers last five road games.  The OVER is 8-2 in Blazers last 10 games as road underdogs.  The OVER is 23-11 in Jazz last 34 games following a loss.  The Blazers have scored at least 109 points in eight consecutive games and 112 or more in seven of those.  The Jazz have scored 111 or more points in 26 of their last 27 games overall.  Take the OVER in this game Thursday. 

15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Portland Trail Blazers +6.5

This is a great spot for the Portland Trail Blazers and a terrible one for the Utah Jazz.  The Blazers will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, so they are rested and ready to go.  And they have been playing great since getting CJ McCollum back from injury and trading for Norman Powell from the Raptors.  They are 5-2 SU in their last seven games overall with their only losses coming to the Bucks and Clippers.

The Jazz will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days tonight.  Making matters worse is that they are coming off a 113-117 (OT) loss to the Phoenix Suns last night.  Donovan Mitchell played over 40 minutes, Rudy Gobert over 36, Bogdanovic over 39 and Conley over 35.  The Jazz simply won't have much left in the tank for the Blazers tonight.

Portland is 12-4 ATS in road games vs. teams that score 110 or more points per game this season.  The Blazers are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Jazz are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as favorites.  They should not be 6.5-point favorites tonight given the terrible spot for them and the great one for Portland.  Take the Blazers Thursday.

20* Suns/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 222.5

It's a good time to bet an UNDER tonight between the Phoenix Suns and Los Angeles Clippers, who are fighting for first place in the Pacific Division.  Defensive intensity will be high in this game, and that should lead to an UNDER.

There's value with the UNDER due to the Suns going over the total in five consecutive games coming in.  But the Suns just played an OT game against the Jazz last night that finished with 230 combined points when it was only at 204 combined points at the end of regulation.

Now the Suns will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and they won't be looking to push the tempo on tired legs.  After all, they rarely look to push the pace as they rank 26th in pace this season.  The Clippers also prefer to play slow as they rank 27th in pace.  But what makes both these teams so good is their defense.  The Suns rank 5th in defensive efficiency while the Clippers rank 9th and should be even better moving forward now that Patrick Beverly has returned from injury.

The Clippers and Suns have combined for 219 or fewer points in three of their last four meetings.  The UNDER is 15-5-3 in Clippers last 23 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Phoenix is 26-12 UNDER in its last 38 games vs. division opponents.

Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is 210 or higher (Phoenix) - revenging a loss against an opponent that is off two consecutive home wins by 10 points or more are 40-13 (75.5%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Cavaliers -3.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are a mess right now.  They have gone 1-7 SU & 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall with all seven losses by 9 points or more.  The last four losses have come by an average of 30 points per game.

They are struggling because they are playing without five of their top six scorers in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Darius Bazley, Al Horford, Luguentz Dort and Mike Muscala.  Making matters worse tonight is that they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days for a team that is already short-handed.

The Cleveland Cavaliers continue to battle and are coming off an impressive 125-101 upset win at San Antonio as 8-point underdogs.  Now they've had the last two days off, so they will be rested and ready to go.  They should have no problem handing the tired Thunder yet another blowout defeat tonight.

Cleveland is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games when playing against a bad team that wins between 25% and 40% of their games.  The Cavaliers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games when playing on two days' rest.  Bet the Cavaliers Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Mavs/Rockets OVER 222

The Dallas Mavericks are hitting on all cylinders offensively with Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis both healthy.  They have scored 109 or more points in seven of the last eight games in which Doncic has played with the only exception coming against the Knicks, who play at a snail's pace and play great defense.

I think we are getting tremendous value with this OVER tonight due to the Mavericks going under the total in six of their last seven games overall.  And the fact that the Rockets have been an under team for the majority of the season, but that is no longer the case.

The Rockets have been much better offensively since getting their best player back from injury in Christian Wood (20.9 PPG, 36.6% 3-pointers).  The Rockets have scored 100-plus points in nine of their last 10 games in which Wood has played.  In their last two games, they hung 115 on the Pelicans and then 130 on the Suns, who are known for great defense.

The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings with combined scores of 241 or more points in all four OVERS.  The OVER is 6-0 in Mavericks last six road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.  The OVER is 21-10 in Mavericks last 31 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The OVER is 4-0 in Rockets last four games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Pelicans/Nets ESPN ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans +9.5

The Brooklyn Nets are overvalued after going 21-4 SU in their last 25 games overall that has them sitting in a tie for 1st place in the Eastern Conference.  But I've been 'selling high' on them for weeks and cashing in, and I'll continue to do so tonight.

Despite their SU success the Nets are just 3-10 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Eight of their last 10 wins have come by 9 points or fewer, and asking them to beat the Pelicans by double-digits to cover this spread is asking too much.  That's especially the case with James Harden, Landry Shamet and Tyler Johnson all out tonight.  I know Kevin Durant makes his much anticipated return tonight, but there's no doubt he will be on a minutes restriction and they will be careful with him.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Pelicans after going 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall.  They are coming off a 107-123 loss to the Hawks last night in which the Hawks made 11-of-11 3-pointers in the 3rd quarter to pull away.  The blowout nature of the defeat allowed the Pelicans to rest their starters late, and they should still be relatively fresh for this game against the Nets.  Zion Williamson and Lonzo Ball just returned to the lineup, and there's a chance they get Brandon Ingram back tonight.

The Pelicans are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.  New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games.  The Nets are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games as favorites.  Brooklyn is 0-6 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a losing record.  Take the Pelicans Wednesday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on New York Knicks +4

The New York Knicks are highly motivated for a victory after losing four of their last five games coming in.  Three of the losses were to three of the best teams in the NBA in the Nets, Heat and Mavericks.  They had yesterday off to regroup, and they are as healthy as they have been in a long time and nearly pulled the upset in a 112-114 loss to the Nets last time out.

Now the Knicks face a tired Boston Celtics team that will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 96-106 loss to Philadelphia last night.  Both Evan Fournier and Kemba Walker will sit tonight, and Jayson Tatum (35 minutes), Marcus Smart (36) and Jaylen Brown (33) will still be tired after playing big minutes last night.  It will also be the 14th game in 23 days for the Celtics.

The Knicks went on the road and crushed the Celtics 105-75 as 7-point dogs in their first meeting this season.  New York is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games after playing two consecutive road games.  The Knicks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games.  New York is 17-8-1 ATS in its last 26 games overall and remains undervalued tonight given the tough spot for the Celtics.  Boston is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games playing on zero rest.  Bet the Knicks Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Blazers/Clippers OVER 228.5

The Portland Trail Blazers are a dead nuts OVER team since getting CJ McCollum back from injury and Norman Powell from the Raptors via trade.  They are tough to tampe offensively as they have scored 109 or more points in seven straight games and 108 or more in 15 of their last 17 games.

The Blazers are also 29th in defensive efficiency this season, giving up 113.8 points per 100 possessions.  Only the Kings have been worse.  They face a Clippers team that ranks 2nd in the NBA in offensive efficiency at 115.7 points per 100 possessions.  The Blazers are 6th in offensive efficiency at 114.1 points per 100 possessions.

The OVER is 2-0 in the last two meetings in this series with combined scores of 239 and 233 points.  These teams should have no problem topping 230 combined points tonight given that they both as healthy as they have been in a long time.

The OVER is 7-2 in Blazers last nine games as road underdogs.  The OVER is 4-0 in Blazers last four road games.  Portland is 13-3 OVER in its last 16 games following two or more consecutive underdogs.  The Blazers are 25-8 OVER in their last 33 games after winning three of their last four games coming in.  The Clippers are 21-6 OVER in their last 27 games following a win over a division rival.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +14

The Detroit Pistons just blew out the Oklahoma City Thunder 132-108 on the road last night.  It was their third blowout victory in five games as they also beat the Raptors by 14 and the Wizards by 29 recently.  They have no quietly gone 9-5 ATS in their last 14 games overall and have been a very profitable team to back of late.

The fact that they blew out the Thunder last night actually makes this 2nd of a back-to-back situation a lot easier on them tonight.  None of their starters played more than 23 minutes last night, and nobody on their entire team played more than 25 minutes.  They will still be fresh tonight, and this back-to-back situation is being factored into this line too much.

I think the Nuggets are starting to get bored.  That showed last time out as they trailed the Magic by 18 at halftime before coming back to win by 10.  That was an awful Magic team playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a loss in Utah the night before.  If the Magic could stay within 10 in that spot, the Pistons can certainly do the same.  The Nuggets are finding it harder to get motivated after winning five straight coming in, and it's time to 'sell high' on them.

Detroit is a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  They have been great at playing up to their level of competition this season.  The Pistons are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games playing on zero rest.  Denver is 8-18-1 ATS in its last 27 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400, so they have had a tendency of playing down to their level of competition.  Detroit is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with the Pistons Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on Chicago Bulls +1

The Chicago Bulls just got both Zach LaVine and Coby White back from injury two games ago.  After a game effort without those two in a 5-point loss at Phoenix as 8.5-point dogs, they also took the Jazz to the wire in a 7-point road loss as 11-point dogs.  Then they came back and upset the Nets by 8 as 2.5-point dogs.

So the Bulls just showed they could hang with three of the best teams in the NBA in the Suns, Jazz and Nets.  And now I expect them to take down the Indiana Pacers tonight.  Nikola Vucevic is getting more and more comfortable with his new team, and the Bulls are definitely a 'buy on' team moving forward.

The Pacers just can't seem to stay healthy and it's a big reason they are just 7-12 SU & 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games overall.  T.J. Warren remains out, and Domantas Sabonis, Malcolm Brogdon and Jeremy Lamb are all questionable tonight.  The good news is I like the Bulls to win this game whether or not those three play.  If any of them sits it's an added bonus.

The Bulls are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Chicago is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games playing on one days' rest.  Indiana is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 home games.  The Pacers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 120 points in their previous game.  Indiana is 0-5 ATS in its last five games playing on two days' rest.  Chicago is 16-6 ATS in all road games this season.  Take the Bulls Tuesday.

20* Baylor/Gonzaga Championship Game No-Brainer on Baylor +4.5

The Baylor Bears have been the second-best team in the country all season and it really hasn't even been close.  They are 27-2 this season and their only struggles came after a COVID pause for three weeks.  They went 1-7 ATS in their next eight games after the pause and entered the NCAA Tournament undervalued because of it.

After barely failing to cover in a 24-point win over Harford as 25.5-point favorites in their opener, the Bears have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS since.  They beat Wisconsin by 13 as 6.5-point favorites, beat Villanova by 11 as 7.5-point favorites and topped Arkansas by 9 as 7.5-point favorites.  Then they blasted Houston 78-59 as 5-point favorites in the Final Four.

I think the blowout nature of that win helps them here in the Championship Game.  The Bears will still be fresh and ready to go.  Meanwhile, Gonzaga had to play the late game and went into overtime with UCLA, winning a 93-90 thriller.  There's no question the Bears will be the fresher, more prepared team after playing in the early game on Saturday.  They got to watch Gonzaga after and got a head start to game planning.  I think this is now a very evenly-matched game and I actually make Baylor a slight favorite, so I definitely love getting the +4.5 here.

Baylor is just so tough to tame as they average 82.8 points per game and shoot 41.2% from 3-point range as a team.  Their top five scorers all shoot 39.6% or better from 3-point range.  Gonzaga just allowed a poor UCLA offensive team to shoot 57.6% against them and every player that played in the game for the Bruins shot at least 50% from the floor.  You can just imagine what Baylor is going to do against this soft Gonzaga defense.

While Baylor is known for being an offensive juggernaut, and rightfully so, I actually believe the Bears are the better defensive team here.  That has shown in the NCAA Tournament as they are allowing just 60.0 points per game and 42% shooting in their five tournament games.  Gonzaga hasn't seen a team that is as athletic defensively as Baylor is all season.  Nothing is going to come easy for the Bulldogs tonight.

The Bears are 34-16-2 ATS in their last 52 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Baylor is a perfect 8-0 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 16 or more assists per game over the last two seasons.  The Bears are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games as underdogs.  Bet Baylor Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Raptors OVER 228.5

Two great OVER teams square off tonight as the Washington Wizards visit the Toronto Raptors.  I think we see 230-plus points with ease tonight between these teams, which has been the case in recent meetings as well.

The OVER is 7-0 in the last seven meetings with combined scores of 230 or more points in all seven meetings.  They have averaged 241.7 combined points at the end of regulation in those seven meetings, which is roughly 13 points more than tonight's posted today of 228.5.

Washington is a great OVER team because they play at the fastest pace in the entire NBA at 106.3 possessions per game.  They also rank 26th in defensive efficiency, giving up 111.5 points per 100 possessions.  The Raptors play at the 12th-fasted pace and rank 14th in offensive efficiency.

Toronto is 8-1 OVER when playing against a bad team (25% to 40%) this season.  Washington is 8-1 OVER when revenging a home loss by 10 points or more this season.  The OVER is 7-0 in Raptors last seven games vs. a team with a losing record.  Take the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Dallas Mavericks +6

The Utah Jazz are getting a ton of respect from oddsmakers right now due to having the best record in the Western Conference at 38-11 this season.  It's time to 'sell high' on them tonight as 6-point road favorites over the Dallas Mavericks.

What seems to be going unnoticed is how well the Mavericks are playing of late when Luka Doncic has been healthy and in the lineup.  Indeed, the Mavericks are 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six games in which Doncic has played.  They beat the Blazers by 40, the Timberwolves by 20, the Thunder by 21, the Celtics by 5, the Knicks by 13 and the Wizards by 22. 

The Mavericks will be highly motivated for a win tonight to get revenge from two road losses at Utah in their first two meetings this season.  The Jazz are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Utah is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 trips to Dallas.  Roll with the Mavericks Monday.

20* Knicks/Nets NBA TV No-Brainer on New York +5.5

The Brooklyn Nets have been money burners for weeks.  They are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  They continue to be overvalued due to going 20-4 SU in their last 24 games overall.  But most of their wins have been close of late, and getting 5.5 points with the Knicks tonight is too much.

This is a terrible spot for the Nets as they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 107-115 loss in Chicago last night.  They are already without Kevin Durant, and James Harden is questionable with a hamstring injury after sitting out last night.  Tyler Johnson is doubtful and Landry Shamet is questionable.  Irving (38 minutes), Harris (34) and Brown (30) all had to play big minutes last night against the Bulls.

The Knicks had yesterday off following their 125-81 blowout win at Detroit on Saturday.  They will be the fresher team, and they'll be highly motivated for revenge after losing their first two meetings this season with the Nets by 7 and 5 points.  They can stay within 5.5 in the 3rd meeting and possibly pull the upset given the favorable spot for them and the tough one for the Nets.

New York is 30-12 ATS in its last 42 games when revenging a same-season loss.  The Knicks are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 3-plus points per game in the 2nd half of the season.  New York is 7-2 ATS in its last nine road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Brooklyn is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games as a favorite.  New York is 6-1 ATS in its last seven trips to Brooklyn.  Bet the Knicks Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte Hornets +9

The Charlotte Hornets are missing some players like Gordon Hayward, LaMelo Ball and Malik Monk.  But these injuries are being factored into this line too much, and asking the Boston Celtics to beat them by double-digits to cover this 9-point spread is asking too much.

The Hornets have proven they can still play well without Ball by going 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  And they lost Hayward early in the game last time out and still went on the road and beat the Pacers 114-97 on the 2nd of a back-to-back.  They are a deep team that can handle these losses better than most teams.

The Celtics just aren't playing well enough to be getting this kind of respect from oddsmakers.  They are 4-7 SU & 5-6 ATS in their last 11 games overall with three of those wins coming against the lowly Magic, Thunder and Rockets.  It's worth noting the Celtics could also be without Jaylen Brown, who left last game with a knee injury and is questionable tonight.

The Hornets are 36-16-1 ATS in their last 53 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Charlotte is 7-1 ATS in its last eight Sunday games.  The Hornets are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  The Celtics are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games following a SU win.  Boston is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games following an ATS win.  The Celtics are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games following a win by more than 10 points.  Take the Hornets Sunday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls +3.5

The Chicago Bulls will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost six straight games coming in, but covered in their last two in a 5-point loss at Phoenix as 8.5-point dogs and a 7-point loss at Utah as 11-point dogs.

If they can hang with both Utah and Phoenix, the two teams with the best records in the Western Conference, they can certainly beat the Brooklyn Nets tonight.  It's worth noting that the Bulls just got both Zach LaVine and Coby White back from injury for the Jazz game after they both sat out the Suns game.  And Nikola Vucevic is getting comfortable in their offense now.

The Bulls can certainly beat a Brooklyn Nets team that will be missing their two best players in James Harden and Kevin Durant.  The Nets were able to beat the Hornets without these two last time out, but they won't be able to beat the Bulls without them.  Especially not a Bulls team that is this motivated for a win and playing with a chip on their shoulder.

Plays against road favorites (Brooklyn) - after four or more consecutive wins, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 58-25 (69.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Nets are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as favorites.  Brooklyn is 0-5 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  Chicago is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 Sunday games.  Bet the Bulls Sunday.

20* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Orlando Magic +16

The Orlando Magic have been an undervalued commodity since trading away three of their best players in Aaron Gordon, Nikola Vucevic and Evan Fournier.  They clearly weren't going anywhere with those three, so it was time to move on.  And the roster that is left over isn't as bad as it is perceived to be, and these guys are playing with huge chips on their shoulders.

Indeed, the Magic have gone 3-2 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  They pulled the upset over the Suns as 9.5-point dogs, upset the Clippers as 11-point dogs and upset the Pelicans as 5-point dogs.  They also only lost by 3 as 7-point dogs to the Lakers and by 7 as 9.5-point dogs to the Blazers.  They got Wendell Carter Jr. and Otto Porter Jr. from the Bulls, and they've had several players step up that were already on the roster.

Now the Magic are catching a whopping 16 points against the Utah Jazz, who are overvalued due to having the best record in the Western Conference.  I faded the Jazz yesterday with success and cashed in the Bulls +13.5 in a 7-point loss, and I'll fade the Jazz again today in this awful spot.  

Utah will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and its 6th game in 9 days here.  Don't be surprised if they elect to rest some starters after all five starters played more than 30 minutes last night.  Either way, this is too many points.  Bet the Magic Saturday.

15* UCLA/Gonzaga Final Four ANNIHILATOR on UCLA +14.5

I was definitely skeptical of UCLA going into the Alabama game and very high on the Crimson Tide -5.5 in that game for one of my few losses of the NCAA Tournament.  But the Bruins impressed me with an outright win in that game, and they went on to upset Michigan as 6.5-point dogs.  What more does this team have to do to get some respect from oddsmakers?  They certainly aren't getting respect here as 14.5-point dogs to Gonzaga.

UCLA is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the NCAA Tournament with four outright upsets as underdogs.  They just feel like they can't lose at this point with that 14-point comeback against Michigan State in the play-in game.  They showed some great poise after giving up an 11-point halftime lead to Alabama, and with the Crimson Tide hitting a 3-pointer at the buzzer to tie it.  They went on to score 23 points in overtime against one of the best defenses in the country.  Then they led basically the entire way against Michigan.

The Bruins have been playing some tremendous defense in the NCAA Tournament, and they like to slow down the pace, which is what has allowed them to win these games.  It will also allow them to keep this game close against Gonzaga with fewer possessions for both teams.  They held Michigan to 49 points, Alabama to 65 at the end of regulation, Abilene Christian to 47 and BYU to 62.

You certainly aren't getting any discounts on Gonzaga at this point after going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their four NCAA Tournament games.  But Oklahoma, Creighton and USC all stayed within 19 points of them, and UCLA can certainly stay within 14.5 points.  It's crazy that USC was a 9-point dog to Gonzaga and now UCLA is a 14.5-point dog, a 5.5-point adjustment.  There is recency bias on the Bulldogs right now, but there clearly is no recency bias on the Bruins as nobody believes in this team.  That's just how they like it.

The Bruins are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games following a SU win.  Gonzaga is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games after its opponent was called for 15 or fewer fouls in two consecutive games.  The Bulldogs are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games after covering four or five of their last six games against the spread.  Take UCLA Saturday.

25* NCAA Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Baylor -4.5

The Baylor Bears have been the second-best team in the country all season and it really hasn't even been close.  They are 26-2 this season and their only struggles came after a COVID pause for three weeks.  They went 1-7 ATS in their next eight games after the pause and entered the NCAA Tournament undervalued because of it.

After barely failing to cover in a 24-point win over Harford as 25.5-point favorites in their opener, the Bears have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS since.  They beat Wisconsin by 13 as 6.5-point favorites, beat Villanova by 11 as 7.5-point favorites and topped Arkansas by 9 as 7.5-point favorites.  I think we are getting them at a huge discount here as only 4.5-point favorites over Houston now in the Final Four.

Houston has had a pretty easy path to the Final 4 unlike Houston.  The Cougars have beaten Cleveland State, Rutgers, Syracuse and Oregon State to get here.  All four of those were double-digit seeds and pulled upsets to get to Houston! This is definitely a step up in class for the Cougars.

It's worth noting that Houston has only played one team that is ranked in the KenPom Top 25 all season and that was Texas Tech (20th).  The Cougars are grossly overvalued due to their 28-3 record this season.  They nearly lost to both Rutgers and Oregon State, but pulled out both games in the closing minutes.  They won't be so fortunate here against the best team they have played all season by a wide margin.

Baylor is just so tough to tame as they average 83.0 points per game and shoot 41.1% from 3-point range as a team.  Their top five scorers all shoot 39.6% or better from 3-point range.  Houston is known for great defense, but they haven't faced an offense near the caliber of Baylor this season.  They will be shell-schocked.

Baylor is 8-1 ATS vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game this season.  The Bears are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games.  Baylor is 5-1 ATS in its last six NCAA Tournament games.  The Bears are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet Baylor Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Thunder/Suns UNDER 219.5

The Phoenix Suns are so good this season because they play great defense and slow it down and get good shots on offense.  The Suns rank 23rd in pace this season at 99.1 possessions per game.  Phoenix ranks 6th in defensive efficiency, giving up just 107.2 points per 100 possessions.

Now the Suns take on the struggling Oklahoma City Thunder who are missing five of their top six scorers right now in Gilgeous-Alexander, Horford, Bazley, Dort and Muscala.  Ty Jerome is out tonight and Pokusevski is questionable.

It's no wonder the Thunder rank just 28th in offensive efficiency this season with all of the injuries they have sustained.  However, they have managed to stay more competitive than expected because they do play defense, ranking a solid 13th in defensive efficiency.

The first and only meeting between these teams this season saw just 199 combined points with a 102-97 upset victory by the Thunder.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Phoenix.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Thunder last eight road games.  The UNDER is 50-22-1 in Thunder last 73 games as road underdogs.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Suns last six games playing on one days' rest.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Bucks/Blazers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 236.5

The Portland Trail Blazers are scary good offensively right now with the return of CJ McCollum (24.2 PPG, 4.7 APG) from injury and the addition of Norman Powell (19.4 PPG) from the Raptors.  These two going with Damian Lillard (29.8 PPG, 7.8 APG) and Carmelo Anthony (14.0 PPG) are going to make them very tough to tame.

The recent results with these guys have been tremendous as the Blazers have scored at least 122 points in three of their last four games overall.  But their additions won't help the Blazers much defensively as they remain one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA.  They rank 29th in defensive efficiency, giving up 114.5 points per 100 possessions this season.  Only the Kings have been worse.

This game will be a shootout as the Blazers won't be able to get stops against a Milwaukee Bucks team that ranks 5th in offensive efficiency at 114.2 points per 100 possessions this season.  They average 118.9 points per game this season and I see both teams topping 120 points in this one.

The OVER is 3-1 in the last four meetings with combined scores of 240, 266 and 243 points at the end of regulation in the three OVERS.  The OVER is 8-3 in Bucks last 11 games overall.  The OVER is 7-1 in Bucks last eight games following a win by more than 10 points.  The OVER is 4-0 in Blazers last four games overall.  Portland is 9-1 OVER in its last 10 games when revenging a blowout loss by 20 points or more.  Roll with the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Chicago Bulls +13.5

It's time to 'sell high' on the Utah Jazz.  They have won seven straight games coming in with several in blowout fashion.  But they did have three wins by 4 points or less during this stretch as well, and they could be without their best player in Donovan Mitchell (25.7 PPG, 5.5 APG), who sat out last game for personal reasons and is questionable again tonight.

Conversely, it's time to 'buy low' on the Chicago Bulls off five straight losses.  They have been battling through injury and chemistry issues but could get both Zach LaVine and Coby White back tonight as they have both been upgraded to questionable.  The Bulls showed last time out that they could compete on the road with a team as good as the Phoenix Suns in a 116-121 loss as 8.5-point dogs despite not having both White and LaVine.  

Nikola Vucevic is getting more comfortable in the system after getting traded from Orlando.  And the Bulls want revenge from a 95-120 home loss to the Jazz that started this losing streak on March 22nd, but that was the 2nd of a back-to-back for them, while the Jazz were on two days' rest coming into that game.

The Bulls are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 road games, including 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as road underdogs.  Chicago is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 road games after a non-conference game.  Plays on any team (Chicago) - revenging a loss by 10 points or more, off three or more consecutive road losses are 58-27 (68.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Bulls Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Warriors/Heat UNDER 220

We have two UNDER teams going at it tonight when the Warriors visit the Miami Heat Thursday night.  The Warriors are 28-19 UNDER in all games this season, while the Heat are 27-21 UNDER in all games.

The Heat have definitely been an UNDER team of late as five of their last six games have seen 215 or fewer combined points.  They have averaged just 205.5 combined points per game with their opponents in their last six games.  And now they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back tonight after a 92-87 win in Indiana last night.  They will be on tired legs and won't be looking to push the tempo.

The Heat will control the tempo playing at home tonight, and they rank 27th in pace at 99.2 possessions per game.  They are also 5th in defensive efficiency.  The Warriors have quietly ranked 9th in defensive efficiency as they are one of the most improved teams in the NBA on that end of the floor.  They struggle to score outside Stephen Curry, which is why they rank just 22nd in offensive efficiency, but they have Draymond Green and Wiseman to anchor their defense.  The Heat are just 23rd in offensive efficiency this season.

This will be a rematch from a February 17th meeting between the Heat and Warriors that was tied 105-105 at the end of regulation for just 210 combined points before going over the total in overtime.  If not for OT, the UNDER would be 6-3 in the last nine meetings with combined scores of 218 or fewer points in six of those nine meetings.

The UNDER is 9-2 in Warriors last 11 road games.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Warriors last seven games playing on two days' rest.  The UNDER is 9-1 in Warriors last 10 road games when the line is +3 to -3.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Hornets/Nets TNT ANNIHILATOR on Charlotte +3.5

The Brooklyn Nets are overvalued right now due to going 19-3 SU in their last 22 games overall.  I've been selling high on them for a few weeks now, and I'll continue to 'sell high' on them tonight as 3.5-point favorites against the Charlotte Hornets.

The Nets are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They only beat the Pistons by 5 as 11-point home favorites, beat the Knicks by 5 as 8.5-point home favorites, lost outright to the Magic by 8 as 10.5-point road favorites, beat the Wizards by 7 as 9-point favorites, lost to the Jazz by 30 as 13-point dogs, only beat the Pistons by 2 as 6.5-point road favorites, only beat the Timberwolves by 5 as 10.5-point favorites and beat the Rockets by 12 as 12.5-point favorites in their eight non-covers during this stretch.  

As you can see, the Nets aren't blowing anyone out, and they haven't won any of their last 11 games by more than 12 points.  They trailed by 11 late in the 3rd quarter last night against the Rockets, so they used a lot of energy to come back from that deficit to win that game.  They did it all without James Harden, who left with a hamstring injury.  He is almost certainly going to be out tonight, and without him and Kevin Durant, this team is just not very good.  The Nets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  They won't have much left in the tank after that comeback against the Rockets last night.

Now they face a Charlotte Hornets team that is playing some of their best basketball of the season.  The Hornets are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall with their only loss coming to the Phoenix Suns in overtime.  They have been way undervalued due to playing without LaMelo Ball, but they have the depth at the guard positions with Graham and Rozier to make up for his absence.

Charlotte pulled the 106-104 upset as 11-point dogs to a healthy Nets team in their last meeting this season.  Brooklyn is 1-9 ATS when revenging a loss as a favorite this season.  Charlotte is 5-0 ATS in its last five games playing on one days' rest.  The Nets are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games as favorites.  Brooklyn is 0-5 ATS in its last five home games.  The Hornets are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  These five trends combine for a 31-1 system backing Charlotte.  Take the Hornets Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/Jazz UNDER 227.5

This will be the 3rd meeting in 6 days between the Grizzlies and Jazz.  The just played a double-header in Utah on March 26th and 27th.  Familiarity favors defense and UNDERS, and I think this is the perfect spot to back the UNDER tonight, especially after those first two meetings went over the total.

The biggest difference here other than the familiarity is that Utah won't have leading scorer Donovan Mitchell (25.7 PPG, 5.5 APG).  He had 35 points in each of those first two meetings for 70 points across those two games.  That's a lot of production they are going to be missing, and it will certainly help us cash this UNDER ticket.

The UNDER is 30-10 in Grizzlies last 40 home games.  The UNDER is 14-3 in Grizzlies last 17 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The UNDER is 9-1 in Grizzlies last 10 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  The UNDER is 30-9 in the last 39 meetings in Memphis.  Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE MONTH on Memphis Grizzlies +5.5

I love the spot for the Memphis Grizzlies tonight.  They will be highly motivated for revenge after losing to the Jazz in back-to-back games on March 26th and 27th.  They lost by 3 on the 26th and by 16 on the 27th.  Now they get to face them just four days later and at home this time around.

The Grizzlies have been playing well now that they are healthy.  They have gone 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  The biggest difference here from those first two meetings is that they won't have to face Utah leading scorer Donovan Mitchell (25.7 PPG, 5.5 APG), who had 35 points in each of those two meetings with Memphis.  He's irreplaceable for this team.

It's mind-blowing that the Jazz are still 5.5-point favorites here without Mitchell.  It just goes to show how overvalued they really are right now due to having the best record in the Western Conference at 35-11, plus going 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  It's time to 'sell high' on Utah.

It's also worth noting the Jazz' plane had to turn around last night after hitting a pack of pigeons and having smoke coming out of the engine.  That's definitely a distraction heading into this game, and I just don't think they are going to be all that motivated to beat the Grizzlies a 3rd time in less than a week.

The Grizzlies are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games.  Memphis is 4-0 ATS in its last four games playing on one days' rest.  Utah is 2-5 ATS in its last seven road games.  Memphis is 38-15 ATS in its last 53 home games following a road win by 10 points or more.  Bet the Grizzlies Wednesday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Houston Rockets +13

The Brooklyn Nets are overvalued right now due to going 18-3 SU in their last 21 games overall.  I've been selling high on them for a few weeks now, and I'll continue to 'sell high' on them tonight as massive 13-point favorites over the Houston Rockets.

The Nets are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall.  They only beat the Pistons by 5 as 11-point home favorites, beat the Knicks by 5 as 8.5-point home favorites, lost outright to the Magic by 8 as 10.5-point road favorites, beat the Wizards by 7 as 9-point favorites, lost to the Jazz by 30 as 13-point dogs, only beat the Pistons by 2 as 6.5-point road favorites, and only beat the Timberwolves by 5 as 10.5-point favorites in their seven non-covers during this stretch.  

As you can see, the Nets aren't blowing anyone out, and they haven't won any of their last 10 games by more than 12 points.  That makes for a 10-0 system backing the Rockets catching 13 points tonight.  And this is a Rockets team that is improving now that they are getting healthy, mainly getting their best player in Christian Wood back from injury.

The Rockets have only lost one of their last five games by more than 10 points.  They upset the Raptors by 18 as 8.5-point dogs and upset the Timberwolves by 22 as 4.5-point dogs.  They also only lost to the Grizzlies by 10 and the Timberwolves by 6 in a game they should have won after giving up a big lead late in the 4th.

The Nets are 0-6 ATS in their last six games as favorites.  Brooklyn is 0-4 ATS in its last four home games.  The Nets are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Brooklyn is simply just going through the motions of late, especially against bad teams.  They won't be all that excited to face the Rockets either, while Houston will relish this opportunity to try and upset the Nets.  Roll with the Rockets Wednesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Orlando Magic +11.5

This is a terrible spot for the Los Angeles Clippers tonight.  They are coming off back-to-back wins and covers over Philadelphia and Milwaukee, and they have huge games on deck against both the Nuggets and Lakers in their next two games.  This is the letdown spot where they don't show up tonight against the Orlando Magic, which is going to make it very difficult to cover this 11.5-point spread.

That's not the only reason its a terrible spot for the Clippers, either.  They are a tired team right now playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after their win over the Bucks last night.  They will also be playing their 5th game in 7 days tonight, which is about as tough a spot as there is in the NBA today.  Paul George sat out last night and is questionable tonight.  Serge Ibaka, Patrick Beverly and Rajon Rondo are all questionable.  And don't be surprised if they sit Kawhi Leonard to rest after he played more than 36 minutes last night.

The Magic are about as undervalued a team as you will find right now.  They just traded away three of their best players in Vucevic, Gordon and Fournier.  But they have gone 1-2 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They upset the Suns as 9.5-point dogs, only lost to the Blazers by 7 as 9.5-point dogs, and only lost to the Lakers by 3 as 7-point dogs.  They have some good new players in Wendell Carter Jr. and Otto Porter Jr. from the Bulls, and they are expected to get Terrance Ross back in the lineup tonight from a knee injury.  This team is playing with a chip on their shoulder right now after all these trades and will relish this opportunity to try and beat the Clippers.

Plays against favorites of 10 or more points (LA Clippers) - after a home game where both teams scored 100 points or more, playing the 2nd of a back-to-back are 35-11 (76.1%) ATS since 1996.  The Magic are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  They just played the Suns, Blazers and Lakers all tough, so they can certainly hang with the Clippers, too.  Take the Magic Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on 76ers/Nuggets OVER 220.5

The Denver Nuggets have been the most efficient offensive team in the NBA since the beginning of March.  They are averaging 119.9 points per 100 possessions.  They have scored at least 110 points in 16 of their last 19 games overall.

The Philadelphia 76ers aren't as good defensively without Joel Embiid inside, but they haven't suffered much offensively, and they actually play at a faster tempo without him.  The 76ers have scored 108 or more points in 19 of their last 23 games overall.

Denver is 7-0 OVER after outrebounding its last opponents by 15 or more this season.  The OVER is 5-0 in 76ers last five games as road underdogs.  The OVER is 4-0 in Nuggets last four games following an ATS win.  The OVER is 24-11 in Nuggets last 35 games playing on one days' rest.  Roll with the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* USC/Gonzaga Elite 8 No-Brainer on USC +8.5

The fact that Gonzaga has won 26 straight games by double-digits has this line inflated.  They have had such an easy path in those 26 games and certainly in the NCAA Tournament with wins over Norfolk State, an Oklahoma team missing its second-leading scorer and an overrated Creighton team.

Gonzaga will be in for its stiffest test of the season tonight against this USC team that is just rolling through some good opponents.  The Trojans are 6-1 in their last seven games overall with their only loss coming by 2 points to Colorado.  They have won their three NCAA Tournament games by 16 over Drake, by 34 over Kansas and by 14 over Oregon.  What more does this team need to do to get some respect?

USC is tricky defensively.  The Mobley brothers inside have made them the best 2-point defense in the country.  And they are mixing in their zone defense very well and will continue to do so here against Gonzaga to give them some looks that they have never seen before.  And the Bulldogs only have one day to prepare for it after beating Creighton on Saturday, which is a huge advantage for USC.

I also like the matchup for the Mobley brothers inside against Gonzaga.  The one weakness for the Bulldogs is their interior defense as Timme is soft at defending the rim, and they don't really have anyone else to do it.  Well, if there's any team that can punish them for being soft inside, it's definitely USC with the Mobley brothers.  The Trojans have been extremely efficient offensive, shooting 47.2% or better in seven consecutive games, including 50% or better in four straight.

Andy Enfield is one of the most underrated coaches in the country, going 7-0 ATS in all NCAA Tournament games as the coach of USC.  The Trojans are 9-1 ATS vs. top teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game over the last two seasons.  The Bulldogs are 1-8 ATS vs. teams that average 6 or fewer steals per game this season.  Bet USC Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Cavaliers +16

The Utah Jazz are way overvalued right now due to having the best record in the Western Conference at 34-11 and winning five straight games coming in, including three in blowout fashion.  

It's definitely time to 'sell high' on the Jazz now in their second-largest favorite role of the entire season.  The last time they were this big of a favorite they failed to cover as 19-point favorites in a 15-point win over Houston, which was mired in a 20-plus game losing streak.

The Cavaliers are much better than the Rockets, and they will give the Jazz more of a battle than they are prepared for.  Cleveland is 3-4 SU but 4-3 ATS in its last seven games overall with upset wins over Boston as 7.5-point dogs, Toronto as 7.5-point dogs and Chicago as 7.5-point dogs.  They also covered in a 2-point loss to Sacramento as 9-point dogs.  

Leading scorer Collin Sexton (24.0 PPG, 4.3 APG) returned from a hamstring injury and scored 26 points against the Kings.  Having him healthy makes all the difference for this team.  He had 36 points in the upset of Toronto and 29 in the upset of Boston.

Plays against favorites of 10 or more points (Utah) - a good team with a +7 PPG or better scoring margin against a bad team with a -7 PPG or worse scoring margin on the season after 42-plus game, after a game where both teams scored 105 or more points are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS since 1996.  I think the Jazz take the Cavaliers lightly tonight as well, which will help them get the cover.  Roll with the Cavaliers Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Kings/Spurs OVER 228

This is a very low total for a Kings game this season.  The Kings have been one of the best OVER teams in the NBA this season as they are 27-19 OVER in their 46 games.  They are dead last (30th) in defensive efficiency, giving up 115.7 points per 100 possessions.  They also play at the 10th-fastest pace in the NBA this season.

The Spurs will oblige as they also like to push the tempo, shoot a lot of 3-pointers and play little defense.  The last time these teams squared off the Spurs won 129-120 for 249 combined points.  There's definitely some value on the OVER tonight given how both teams like to play.

Plays on the OVER on road teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (Sacramento) - off two or more consecutive wins, with a losing record on the season are 52-19 (73.2%) over the last five seasons.

Sacramento is 17-7 OVER when the total is 220 to 229.5 this season.  The OVER is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings.  The OVER is 35-17 in Kings last 52 games following an ATS loss.  The OVER is 9-4 in Spurs last 13 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Take the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Minnesota Timberwolves +11.5

Lines on the Brooklyn Nets have gotten out of hand recently due to their current 17-3 SU run.  I've been 'selling high' on them for weeks, and I'll continue to do so tonight as they are 11.5-point favorites here against the Minnesota Timberwolves now.

The Nets are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall despite going 6-2 SU during this stretch.  They beat Detroit by 2 as 6.5-point favorites, lost to the Jazz by 30 as 13-point dogs, only beat the Wizards by 7 as 9-point home favorites, lost outright to the Magic by 8 as 10.5-point favorites, only beat the Knicks by 5 as 8.5-point favorites and also beat the Pistons by 5 as 11-point favorites.

The Timberwolves have been much more competitive since returning from the All-Star Break.  They have gone 4-6 SU & 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games overall with upset wins over the Pelicans by 30 as 8-point dogs, by 2 over the Blazers as 5.5-point dogs and by 4 over the Suns as 11-point dogs.  They just got second-leading scorer Malik Beasley (20.3 PPG) back from a 12-game suspension on Saturday and will be an even more dangerous team with him back in the lineup moving forward.

Plays on underdogs (Minnesota) off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite, a tired team playing 8 or more games in 14 days are 44-19 (69.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  They aren't that tired as they had yesterday off, and they'll have no problem getting motivated to face the Nets after they weren't motivated against the Rockets on Saturday after beating them Friday.  The Timberwolves are 24-8 ATS in the last 32 meetings.  The Nets are 0-5 ATS in their last five games as favorites.  Bet the Timberwolves Monday.

20* Oregon State/Houston Elite 8 No-Brainer on Oregon State +8

Oregon State has been one of the most underrated teams in the country since mid-January.  The Beavers are 18-3-1 ATS in their last 22 games overall with 12 outright victories as underdogs.  They dominated from start to finish and pulled the 70-56 upset of Tennessee as 8.5-point dogs in the opening round.  They led by as many as 18 against Oklahoma State and won 80-70 as 6-point dogs in the Round of 32.  Then they led basically the entire way and upset Loyola-Chicago 65-58 as 7-point dogs.

The Beavers also pulled off three straight upsets against three of the best teams in the Pac-12 to win the conference tournament.  They beat UCLA outright as 5.5-point dogs, crushed Oregon by 11 as 8.5-point dogs, and led basically the entire way against Colorado in the championship game for another outright win as 8.5-point dogs.  Now they are catching 8 points against Houston in the Elite 8.  What more does this team have to do to do get some some respect?

Houston has had a pretty easy path to the Elite 8 unlike Oregon State.  The Cougars have beaten Cleveland State, Rutgers and Syracuse to get here.  This is definitely a step up in class for the Cougars.  And I like the matchup as it is expected to be a low-scoring game as both teams are great defensively.  The total is only 129 for this game, and low-scoring games definitely favor the underdog.  This game will play right into the Beavers' hands.

Oregon State is 16-3 ATS in its last 18 games as an underdog.  The Beavers are 12-1-1 ATS in their last 14 games following an ATS win.  Oregon State is a perfect 14-0 ATS in its last 14 games after playing three consecutive games as an underdog this season.  Bet Oregon State Monday.

15* Oregon/USC Sweet 16 Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon +2.5

The Oregon Ducks have saved their best basketball of the season for last, which always seems to be the case under Dana Altman.  They have gone 12-2 in their last 14 games with their last six wins coming by 10 points or more, including their 95-80 throttling of Iowa last round.

The Ducks are definitely fresh after getting a bye into the Round of 32 by not having to play VCU.  And I just trust Dana Altman as a head coach more than Andy Enfield.  Altman is 16-4 ATS as the coach of Oregon in NCAA Tournament games.  The Ducks are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 NCAA Tournament games, including 7-0 ATS in their last seven NCAA Tournament games as underdogs.

The USC Trojans are getting too much respect now after beating Drake and Kansas, two of the worst teams in the tournament.  Drake barely deserved to be there, and Kansas was coming off a COVID pause that forced them out of the Big 12 Tournament.  This is a big step up in class for the Trojans, and it's actually a step down in class for the Ducks after facing Iowa.  Roll with Oregon Sunday.

25* Sweet 16 GAME OF THE YEAR on Alabama -5.5

The Alabama Crimson Tide have been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season.  They have gone 26-6 SU this season and are 16-9 ATS in their last 25 games overall after blasting Maryland 96-77 as 6-point favorites in the Round of 32.  They have consistently been getting margin with their up-tempo style under Nate Oats, and that's why I'm willing to lay the points with them here against UCLA.

Alabama ranks in the Top 30 in the country in amount of points coming from the 3-point line as they hoist 30 per game at a 35.5% clip.  And while this Alabama offense that scores 79.7 PPG gets the attention, the Crimson Tide actually rank 2nd in the country in defensive efficiency.  They give up just 40.8% shooting as a team and 28.9% shooting from 3-point range on the season.  They face a UCLA team that struggles to defense the 3-pointer, giving up 21 attempts per game at a 34.2% clip.  And it's a good matchup for the Crimson Tide because they like to run teams from the 3-point line, and UCLA shoots the 3-pointer at a 37.4% clip this season.

UCLA is getting too much respect here after beating three mediocre teams in five days to make the Sweet 16.  They rallied from 14 down to beat Michigan State in OT, beat a BYU team that was way overseeded as a No. 6 seed, and crushed an Abilene Christian team that was only in the Round of 32 because Texas played its worst game of the season with 23 turnovers to hand them the game.  This is a huge step up in class for UCLA based on what they have faced thus far in the NCAA Tournament.  Remember, the Bruins went 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in their final four gams of the season against Pac-12 opponents.

UCLA is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 Sweet 16 games.  Alabama is 23-11 ATS in its last 34 games after scoring 80 points or more last game.  The Bruins are 10-21 ATS in their last 31 neutral site games as underdogs.  The Crimson Tide are 23-10 ATS in their last 33 games following an ATS win.  Oats is 11-1 ATS after a game where his team forced 8 or fewer turnovers as a head coach.  Bet Alabama Sunday.

20* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Toronto Raptors ML -113

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Toronto Raptors right now.  They are 1-10 SU & 4-7 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  But the majority of those games came without three of their best players in Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam and OG Onunoby who combine to average 54.5 points per game.

Those three are back now and the Raptors have been much more competitive against some very good competition.  They have also put the trade rumors behind them that distracted them before the deadline.  They beat the Nuggets by 24 two games ago before losing a tough one by 4 points to the Suns last time out.

The Blazers come in overvalued after winning five of their last seven games overall.  Their last win came by just 7 points over a depleted Orlando Magic team that just traded everyone away.  Now the Blazers will be playing their 10th game in 16 days here and are a tired team.  Star PG Damian Lillard is questionable tonight with a knee injury as well.

Plays against road teams (Portland) - a tired team playing their 3rd game in 4 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 52-22 (70.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Toronto also wants revenge from a 1-point loss in Portland in their first meeting this season.  The Blazers are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Toronto is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the Raptors Sunday.

15* NBA TOTAL OF THE DAY on Grizzlies/Jazz UNDER 228.5

This is one of my favorite spots to back an UNDER.  This is a double-header between the Grizzlies and Jazz.  They just played yesterday and now they will play again today.  Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.

The Jazz won 117-114 last night for 231 combined points.  It was a frantic 4th quarter with the Grizzlies making a big comeback that led to a big 4th quarter points-wise.  Now we just need one less 3-pointer to cash this UNDER 228.5, which shouldn't be a problem considering both teams will be playing on tired legs and the pace should be much slower because of it.

Memphis is 13-2 UNDER in its last 15 games after trailing in its previous game by 15 points or more at halftime.  Utah is 49-20 UNDER In its last 69 games off a close home win by 3 points or less.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Grizzlies last eight games as underdogs.  The UNDER is 17-5 in Grizzlies last 22 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Jazz last five games overall.  The UNDER is 11-5 in Grizzlies last 16 games overall.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Oklahoma City Thunder +9.5

The Boston Celtics are in a terrible spot tonight.  Asking them to go on the road and beat the Oklahoma City by double-digits to beat us is simply asking too much given the difficulty of the spot for them.

The Celtics will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  They will be playing their fourth straight road game as well, so there has been a lot of travel involved.  And it will also be the 8th game in 12 days for the Celtics here.  

It's no wonder the Celtics have gone just 2-5 SU & 3-4 ATS in their last seven games overall given how tired they are.  And now they find themselves in a letdown spot off a shocking upset of the Bucks last night.  There's no way they'll be able to get up emotionally for the Thunder like they were against the Bucks last night.

Oklahoma City has been grossly undervalued all season, especially of late.  They have gone 5-5 SU in their last 10 games overall.  They have played many of those games without their best player in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and they will be without him again, which is why this line is so high.  But it's a great spot for the Thunder as they come in on two days' rest, so they will be able to adjust without him.

The Celtics are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games following a SU win.  Boston is 0-6 ATS in its last six games playing on zero rest.  The Celtics are 3-11 ATS as road favorites this season.  Oklahoma City is 51-33 ATS in its last 84 games as an underdog.  Bet the Thunder Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Memphis Grizzlies +10.5

I cashed in the Grizzlies last night as 10-point underdogs against the Utah Jazz in their 114-117 loss.  I'm certainly back on them again today as they will be the team out for revenge, and they already proved they could hang with the Jazz.  There's no way they should be double-digit dogs again here.

The Jazz remain overvalued here due to having the best record in the Western Conference at 33-11.  It's time to 'sell high' on them, especially after two straight blowout wins over the Bulls by 25 and Nets by 30 coming into this double-header with Memphis.  But both of those teams were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and were short-handed.

This double-header against the Grizzlies is clearly a step up in class for the Jazz.  The Grizzlies are playing their best basketball of the season right now due to being fully healthy.  Memphis had won three straight prior to yesterday and is now 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games overall.  Yet, the Grizzlies continue to get zero respect from oddsmakers tonight as double-digit dogs again.

Plays against favorites of 10 or more points (Utah) - after a home games where both teams scored 100 or more points, when playing the 2nd of a back-to-back are 35-11 (76.1%) ATS since 1996.

Memphis is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games when its opponent scored 100 points or more in their previous game.  The Grizzlies are 6-2 ATS in their last eight trips to Salt Lake City.  Memphis is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games following an ATS win.  The Grizzlies are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU loss.  Bet the Grizzlies Saturday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on New York Knicks +9.5

The New York Knicks have been grossly undervalued all season, especially of late.  They are 23-2 SU & 26-18-1 ATS this season, including 8-5 SU & 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  And each of their last three losses all came by 5 points or fewer.

Their last blowout loss came at Milwaukee 101-134 on March 11th, and now they will be looking to get revenge from that defeat.  Given the tough spot for the Bucks tonight, I like the Knicks' chances of staying within single-digits or possibly pulling off the upset to cover this spread in the rematch.

The Bucks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after losing 114-122 to the Celtics last night.  And it's a great time to sell high on the Bucks, who have gone 13-2 SU in their last 15 games overall and are starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers because of it.  And keep in mind the Knicks did beat the Bucks 130-110 as 13-point dogs in their first meeting this season.

New York is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games when revenging a road blowout loss by 20 points or more.  Milwaukee is 6-16 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  New York is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 Saturday games.  Milwaukee is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following a SU loss.  Take the Knicks Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Rockets/Timberwolves UNDER 227.5

This is one of my favorite spots to back an UNDER.  This is a double-header between the Rockets and Timberwolves.  They just played yesterday and they will play again today.  Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.

The Timberwolves won 107-101 last night for just 208 combined points.  Now the books have come back with a 227.5-point total for the rematch, which is clearly too high.  The Rockets even made 17 3-pointers last night and still only scored 101 points.

Offense has been a problem for the Rockets all season as they rank just 29th in offensive efficiency at 102.8 points per 100 possessions.  The Timberwolves haven't been much better, ranking 26th at 104.3 points per 100 possessions.  And with both teams playing on tired legs, this game should be played at an even slower pace than it was yesterday.

Houston is 11-1 UNDER vs. poor foul drawing teams that attempt 21 or fewer free throws per game this season.  The Rockets are 13-3 UNDER in their last 16 games following a loss by 6 points or less.  The UNDER is 40-14-1 in Rockets last 55 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Timberwolves last seven games as favorites.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Oral Roberts/Arkansas Sweet 16 No-Brainer on Oral Roberts +11.5

Oral Roberts went 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in its final five games this season to punch its ticket into the Big Dance after winning the Summit League Tournament.  They pulled off upsets over South Dakota State and North Dakota State to get here in the final two games of the tournament.  They have proceeded to be the cinderella of the NCAA Tournament, upsetting Ohio State 75-72 as 15-point underdogs and upsetting Florida 81-78 as 9-point dogs.

This Oral Roberts team is an offensive juggernaut and can keep up with a team like the Arkansas Razorbacks in the Sweet 16.  The Golden Eagles have scored 75 or more points in each of their last 11 games overall and topped 80 points eight times.  They have averaged 84 points per game in their last 11 games.

There's also four games that really stand out for Oral Roberts in the non-conference outside of those upset wins over Ohio State and Florida.  After getting blasted by Missouri in their opener, they held their own against four other NCAA Tournament teams.  They only lost at Wichita State (80-85) as 10-point dogs, at Oklahoma State (78-83) as 15.5-point dogs, at Oklahoma (65-79) as 16.5-point dogs and at Arkansas (76-87) as 19.5-point dogs.

Having already seen Arkansas once this season is a big advantage for Oral Roberts.  And it's worth noting the Golden Eagles actually led the Razorbacks by 10 points at halftime before getting outscored by 21 after intermission.  That was a true road game for the Golden Eagles and they only lost by 11.  They should be able to stay within 11.5 points in the rematch on a neutral this time around.

Oral Roberts is 9-0 ATS in road games after scoring 75 points or more in two straight games this season.  The Golden Eagles are 10-2 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  Oral Roberts is 8-0 ATS in its last eight road games after two or more consecutive ATS wins.  The Golden Eagles are 10-3 ATS as underdogs this season.  Bet Oral Roberts Saturday.

20* Oregon State/Loyola-Chicago Sweet 16 ANNIHILATOR on Oregon State +6.5

Oregon State has been one of the most underrated teams in the country since mid-January.  The Beavers are 17-3-1 ATS in their last 21 games overall with 11 outright victories as underdogs.  They dominated from start to finish and pulled the 70-56 upset of Tennessee as 8.5-point dogs in the opening round.  They led by as many as 18 against Oklahoma State and won 80-70 as 6-point dogs last round.

The Beavers also pulled off three straight upsets against three of the best teams in the Pac-12 to win the conference tournament.  They beat UCLA outright as 5.5-point dogs, crushed Oregon by 11 as 8.5-point dogs, and led basically the entire way against Colorado in the championship game for another outright win as 8.5-point dogs.  Now they are catching 6.5 points against Loyola-Chicago.  What more does this team have to do to do get some some respect?

Loyola-Chicago goes from being a 7-point underdog to Illinois to a 6.5-point favorite against Oregon State.   That's a 13.5-point adjustment and it's too much.  Of course the Ramblers want to win this game too.  But coming off such a huge upset victory against Illinois to bounce the first #1 seed from the tournament is such an emotional high.

It's going to be hard for them to get up for Oregon State as much as they were up for Illinois, an in-state opponent where they were looked at as the little brother.  They may very well win this game too, but asking them to win by 7 points or more to beat us is asking a lot.

Oregon State is 15-3 ATS in its last 18 games as an underdog.  The Beavers are 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13 games following an ATS win.  Oregon State is a perfect 13-0 ATS in its last 13 games after playing 3 consecutive games as an underdog this season.  Bet Oregon State Saturday.

15* Cavs/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Cleveland +4

Life without Lebron James and Anthony Davis has been hard for the Lakers.  They have gone 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games without them while losing those four games by an average of 11.8 points per game.

It's not going to get any easier tonight as now the Lakers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days while being short-handed.  Kyle Kuzma played over 41 minutes, Dennis Schroeder over 38, Harrell over 32 and Caldwell-Pop over 30 for the Lakers in last night's 101-109 loss to the 76ers.  They won't have much left in the tank tonight.

There's no way the Lakers should be 4-point favorites over the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight given the tough spot for them.  This is a Cleveland team that has been a lot more competitive in recent weeks in going 7-6 SU & 8-5 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  This is definitely a game they can win outright as they have recent upset wins over the Hawks, 76ers, Celtics, Raptors and Bulls during this stretch.  They even upset the Bulls without Collin Sexton, and there's a chance he returns tonight as he is listed as questionable.

Plays on road underdogs (Cleveland) off a road win, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 52-22 (70.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Los Angeles is 1-8 ATS in home games vs. teams that are outscored by 3-plus points per game this season.  Bet the Cavaliers Friday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Memphis Grizzlies +10

The Utah Jazz are overvalued right now due to having the best record in the Western Conference at 32-11.  It's time to 'sell high' on them, especially off two straight blowout wins over the Bulls by 25 and the Nets by 30.  But both of those teams were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and both were short-handed.

Now the Jazz take a step up in class here against a Memphis Grizzlies team that has been playing some of their best basketball of the season now that they are finally healthy.  Indeed, the Grizzlies have won three straight games and are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  Yet, they are getting zero respect from oddsmakers tonight as double-digit underdogs.

The Grizzlies are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games playing on one days' rest.  Memphis is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games when its opponent scored 100 points or more in their previous game.  The Grizzlies are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a SU win.  Memphis is 5-2 ATS in its last seven trips to Salt Lake City.  Roll with the Grizzlies Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Pacers/Mavericks OVER 228

The Dallas Mavericks are a great OVER team because they rank 9th in the NBA in offensive efficiency and 23rd in defensive efficiency.  Indiana plays at a fast pace (9th) and has been a much-improved offensive team since getting some guys back healthy.  The result should be a shoot tonight between these two that sees 230-plus combined points.

The Mavericks have scored 128, 132 and 119 points in their last three games overall.  They should hang a big number on a Pacers defense that has allowed 110 or more points in 15 of their last 17 games overall.  But the Pacers have picked it up offensively in scoring 109 or more points in five straight while averaging 118.0 points per game during this stretch.  Getting Caris LeVert healthy has made a big difference for them.

These teams just played earlier this year with the Mavericks winning 124-112 for 236 combined points.  The Pacers are 8-0 OVER when revenging a same-season loss this season.  Indiana is 9-0 OVER in its last nine games when revenging a loss where opponents scored 110 or more points.  The OVER is 10-1 in Pacers last 11 games playing on one days' rest.  The OVER is 10-2 in Pacers last 12 road games.  The OVER is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings.  The OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Dallas.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Nuggets/Pelicans UNDER 232

This is one of my favorite spots to back an UNDER.  The Nuggets and Pelicans just played on Sunday with the Pelicans winning 113-108 for 221 combined points.  Now they face each other five days later on Friday.  Familiarity favors UNDER and defense.

It's worth noting that both the Pelicans and Nuggets shot well in that game as the Nuggets shot 50% while the Pelicans shot 48.2%.  So it was played at a snail's pace, and that should be the case again here in the rematch.

These teams just match up well for UNDERS, clearly.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings.  They have combined for 232 or fewer points in all six meetings and an average of just 219.5 points per game, which is 12.5 points per game less than this 232-point total.  So there's a ton of value with the UNDER tonight.

The UNDER is 4-1 in Nuggets last five road games.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Pelicans last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Toronto Raptors +4.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Toronto Raptors.  They have gone just 1-9 SU in their last 10 games overall.  But they were missing three of their best players during most of that run, and they are back now in VanVleet, Siakam and Powell.  And now they have the trade deadline behind them so there shouldn't be any more distractions.

The Raptors came out and made a statement to management and ended their nine-game losing streak on Wednesday with an emphatic 135-111 win over the Denver Nuggets.  Now I look for them to build off that win and upset the Phoenix Suns tonight as 4.5-point home underdogs.

It's also a great time to 'sell high' on the Suns after overachieving in the first half of the season with the second-best record in the Western Conference at 29-14.  But they have come back down to reality of late with recent upset losses to the Pacers as 7-point favorites, the Timberwolves as 11-point favorites and the Magic as 9.5-point favorites.

Toronto is 6-1 SU in its last seven meetings with Phoenix.  The Raptors are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  Toronto is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games playing on zero rest.  Take the Raptors Friday.

20* Celtics/Bucks ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 235

This is one of my favorite spots to back an UNDER.  It's a double-header between the Celtics and Bucks tonight.  They just played each other on Wednesday, and now they are rematching in Milwaukee on Friday.  Familiarity favors defense and UNDERS.

Both teams shot very well in that first meeting and it still saw just 240 combined points.  And that total was set at 231 while this one has been set at 235, so we are getting some extra value.  Milwaukee shot 50% for the game and 17-of-37 (45.9%) from 3-point range.  Boston shot 47.9% for the game and 19-of-47 (40.4%) from 3-point range.  It's going to be hard to see them combining for 36 made 3-pointers again considering they average 28 combined per game on the season.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 230 or higher (Milwaukee) - after scoring 105 points or more in four straight games against an opponent that scored 110 points or more in three straight games are 174-114 (60.4%) since 1996.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Detroit Pistons +5.5

The Brooklyn Nets are getting way too much respect from the books here of late after a recent stretch in which they went 14-1 SU.  But they aren't that team any more with all the injuries, and they are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.

The Nets are a tired team as well playing their 5th road game in the last six contests and their 3rd game in 4 days after a trip to Portland and Salt Lake City on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Now they have to make the trek to Detroit and won't have either Kevin Durant or Kyrie Irving, plus they could be without James Harden, who is questionable.  We saw how poor they played without those three in their 30-point loss at Utah.

The trade deadline is over and the Pistons can refocus.  They also get Diallo (11.9 PPG, 5.2 RPG) back from injury tonight.  The Pistons have been undervalued for a few weeks now as they are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They've lost just twice by more than 5 points in that seven-game stretch.  Detroit wants revenge from a 95-100 loss at Brooklyn on March 13th less than two weeks ago.  

They are rested and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, and the Pistons are 19-9 ATS in their last 28 games when playing their 2nd game in 5 days.  Detroit is 10-1 ATS vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 3-plus points per game so they have been good at playing up to their level of competition.  They are also 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % above. 600 as well.  The Nets have been the opposite, going 1-7 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Roll with the Pistons Friday.

15* NIT PLAY OF THE DAY on Memphis -4

I really believe the Memphis Tigers could have made a run in the NCAA Tournament with how well they played down the stretch had they gotten in.  Now they are taking their frustration out on NIT opponents and looking to make a statement.  That showed in their 71-60 win over Dayton in their first-round game.

Memphis is now 11-3 SU & 13-1 ATS in its last 14 games overall.  The three losses all came by 3 points or less with two of them to Houston, which is in the Sweet 16.  They lost on a buzzer-beater 64-67 at Houston and lost in the AAC Tournament 74-76 to the Cougars.  Each of their 11 wins during this stretch have come by 4 points or more.

It has been a bad look for the Mountain West in the NCAA Tournament with San Diego State getting blown out by Syracuse and Utah State getting blown out by Texas Tech.  Boise State went 0-4 SU in its final four games of the season with losses to SDSU (twice), Fresno State and Nevada.  Then they barely beat SMU 85-84 in the opening round of the NIT, but that is a short-handed SMU team that was coming off a long COVID pause and rusty.  This will be a much stiffer test for the Broncos tonight.

Boise State is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following an ATS win.  Memphis is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games as a favorite.  The Tigers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Roll with Memphis Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Clippers/Spurs UNDER 223.5

This is a double-header between the Spurs and Clippers tonight.  They just played last night with the Clippers winning 134-101.  Now they play again tonight, and I always look to back the UNDER in this spot because familiarity favors defense and UNDERS.

Look for this game to be played at a snail's pace tonight with both of these teams playing on tired legs, which helps the UNDER.  And don't expect the Clippers to shoot 55.7% from the floor and 17-of-33 (51.5%) from 3-point range again.  The Clippers rank 27th in the NBA in pace while the Spurs are 15th.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 220 or higher (San Antonio) - revenging a same-season loss against an opponent that's off a road win by 20 points or more are 44-16 (73.3%) since 1996.

The Spurs are 8-1 UNDER when revenging a same-season loss this season.  We are seeing just 216.8 combined points per game on average in this spot.  The UNDER is 7-3 in Spurs last 10 home games.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on San Antonio Spurs +6.5

The San Antonio Spurs will be out for revenge from a 101-134 home loss to the Los Angeles Clippers last night.  The Clippers shot 55.7% as a team and 17-of-33 (51.5%) from 3-point range.  That's not going to happen again.

The blowout nature of the loss allowed the Spurs to rest their starters with eight minutes remaining in the 4th quarter.  Look for them to regroup here, plus they are expected to get both Lonnie Walker IV (11.5 PPG) and Rudy Gay (10.9 PPG) back in the lineup tonight after both sat out last night.

The Clippers will be without Patrick Beverly and Serge Ibaka again tonight.  Behind short-handed doesn't help them in this back-to-back spot.  Both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George played over 32 minutes late night.  Don't be surprised if one or both sits this game and we see a big line adjustment.

The Spurs are 14-2 ATS when revenging a blowout loss by 20 points or more over the last three seasons.  They are coming back to win by nearly 10 points per game on average in this spot.  San Antonio is 63-32 ATS in its last 95 games when revenging any loss.  The Clippers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as road favorites.  The Spurs are 19-9 ATS in their last 28 games as underdogs.  Bet the Spurs Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on San Antonio Spurs +6

The San Antonio Spurs are playing some of their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with three road wins and only a 7-point road loss to the Bucks as 11.5-point dogs on the 2nd of a back-to-back.  

They came back and lost by 3 to the Hornets in their first game back home following a five-game road trip, which is always a tough spot for NBA teams.  Now they should be refocused coming off two straight losses and put their best foot forward here against the Clippers, which should be good enough to cover this 6-point spread.

The Clippers are coming off two straight home wins over the Hornets and Hawks, and I think this is a great time to step in front of them now that they are back on the road.  The Clippers are just 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.  They will be without Patrick Beverly tonight and likely without Serge Ibaka as well.

The Spurs are 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four meetings with the Clippers with only one loss by more than 3 points.  They upset the Clippers 116-113 as 7.5-point road dogs in their lone meeting this season.  Los Angeles is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games following a SU win.  San Antonio is 19-9 ATS in its last 28 games as an underdog.  The Spurs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss.  San Antonio is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 home games after two or more consecutive losses.  Roll with the Spurs Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Suns/Magic UNDER 215

Both the Phoenix Suns and Orlando Magic will be playing the 2nd of back-to-backs tonight.  I think the tired legs will affect their shooting more than anything, and it will also result in this game being played at a snail's pace.

The Magic are 5-1 UNDER in their last six games overall with combined scores of 209 or fewer points in five of those.  The only exception came against the Brooklyn Nets, who play at a fast pace and are the most efficient offensive team in the NBA this season.

The UNDER is 3-0 in Suns last three games overall with combined scores of 214, 205 and 210 points.  These teams played on February 14th with the Suns winning 109-90 for 199 combined points.  They combined for just 192 points in their previous meeting as well.

The Suns rank 28th in the league in pace at 99.4 possessions per game.  They like to slow it down, and so do the Magic, who are 19th in pace at 100.6 possessions per game.  A big reason the Suns are so good this season is because they rank 7th in the NBA in defensive efficiency.  They will lock down the short-handed Magic, who rank 28th in offensive efficiency this season.

The UNDER is 21-7 in Magic last 28 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Orlando is 5-0 UNDER In its last five games after allowing 100 points or more in its previous game.  The UNDER is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.  Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Toronto Raptors +1

The Toronto Raptors will be highly motivated for a win Wednesday.  It's a great time to 'buy low' on them after losing nine straight games coming into this game with the Denver Nuggets.  But five of their last six losses have come on the road.

In their only home game during this stretch, they blew a 5-point lead with just over a minute to play against the Jazz and lost by 3 but still covered.  Now they are back home and just recently got three key players back from injury or COVID.  Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby are all back healthy now.  Those three combine to average nearly 54 points per game, so it's no wonder they struggled without them.

Now the Raptors face a Nuggets team that will be in a very tough spot Wednesday.  The Nuggets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a game in Orlando on Tuesday.  They will also be playing their 8th game in 13 days since returning from the All-Star Break.  Jokic played 36 minutes, Murray 37, Barton 36 and Porter Jr. 32 last night.  They won't have much left in the tank for the motivated, rested Raptors tonight.

Denver is 8-17-1 ATS in its last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  They always have a way of playing to their competition.  The Raptors are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record, so they have the same tendency.  Toronto is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games when playing on one days' rest.  The Nuggets are 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 games following a win by more than 10 points.  Nick Nurse is 34-17 ATS after failing to cover four or five of their last six ATS as the coach of Toronto.  Bet the Raptors Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland Trail Blazers -3.5

The Portland Trail Blazers just got CJ McCollum back in the lineup and are playing their best basketball of the season.  The Blazers are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games overall with their only losses coming to the Suns, and then the Timberwolves and Mavericks in double-headers after beating them the game before, so they were clearly letdown spots.

Now the Blazers will certainly be refocused here with the Brooklyn Nets coming to town.  That's especially the case after their worst loss of the season by 40 points to the Mavericks last time out.  They had just beaten the Mavericks 125-119 two games prior, and they were probably looking ahead to this game against the Nets.

Everyone is looking ahead to this Nets team that has gone 15-2 SU in their last 17 games overall.  So it's a good time to 'sell high' on them, and I've been doing it with success of late as the Nets have gone just 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  And now they are going to not only be without both Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving tonight, but James Harden is also listed as questionable.  Even if Harden plays they don't have enough firepower to hang with the Blazers.

Portland is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a loss by more than 10 points.  Roll with the Blazers Tuesday.

20* NBA Tuesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Miami Heat +2

The Miami Heat will be highly motivated for a victory tonight after losing three straight games coming in, including two by 4 points or fewer.  They had gone 11-1 SU in their previous 12 games prior to this three-game skid.  And I think it's now time to 'buy low' on them as home underdogs to the Phoenix Suns knowing they will be max motivated tonight.

It's also a great time to 'sell high' on the Suns after going 20-5 SU & 20-5 ATS in their last 25 games overall.  But the Suns are coming off a very weak schedule with their last five games all coming at home against the Pacers, Grizzlies, Timberwolves (twice) and Lakers (without Lebron and Davis).  They even lost to the Timberwolves as 11-point favorites and the Pacers as 7-point favorites.

Miami simply owns Phoenix, going 17-3 SU & 16-4 ATS in the last 20 meetings.  The Heat are also 21-6 ATS in the last 27 meetings.  Miami is 20-9 ATS in its last 29 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Heat are 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games off a close loss by 3 points or less.  Bet the Heat Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +7.5

It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Orlando Magic after going 1-10 SU in their last 11 games overall.  With all the injuries they've had, it's no surprise they are on this run.  But they just recently got Evan Fournier and Aaron Gordon back, and those two alongside Vucevic give them a chance to beat anyone in the NBA.

The return of these two has coincided with the Magic being a lot more competitive of late.  They are 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with a 5-point loss to the Heat as 7.5-point dogs, a 1-point loss to the Knicks as 4.5-point dogs, and an outright win by 8 over the Nets as 10.5-point dogs.  They went on to have a letdown against the Celtics in their next game after beating the Nets.  They'll be refocused tonight with the Nuggets coming to town.

It's also a good time to 'sell high' on the Nuggets, who have gone 8-2 SU in their last 10 games overall.  They were fortunate to beat the Bulls twice in games that went down to the wire.  They also only beat the Grizzlies by 1.  And they lost outright to the Pelicans last time out.  They are still without Monte Morris and Gary Harris right now and should not be favored by 7.5 on the road against the Magic tonight.

The Nuggets are 7-17-1 ATS in their last 25 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The Magic are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning record.  Orlando is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four home games.  Denver is 12-24 ATS in its last 36 games after having won six or seven of its last eight games coming in.  Take the Magic Tuesday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies -1

The Memphis Grizzlies are finally healthy and it's starting to show.  The Grizzlies are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They had yesterday off and will be fresh and ready to go tonight against the Boston Celtics.

The Celtics will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  This is one of the toughest situations in the NBA.  They are expected to be without starting PG Kemba Walker due to rest and could be without Tristan Thompson as well.

The Celtics aren't playing well as it is, going 2-4 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall.  Their two wins came against Houston, which is now 0-20 SU in its last 20 games, and Orlando, which was in a letdown spot off an upset win over the Nets.  The Magic are also 1-10 SU in their last 11 games.  The Celtics lost to the Nets by 11, the Jazz by 8, were upset by the Cavs by 7 as 7.5-point favorites and upset by the Kings by 11 as 7-point favorites in their four losses during this stretch.

Boston is 0-5 ATS in its last five games playing on zero rest.  The Celtics are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS win.  Boston is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games following a SU win.  The Celtics are 1-8 ATS in their last nine road games.  The Grizzlies are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as home favorites.  Bet the Grizzlies Monday.

20* Maryland/Alabama CBB Late-Night BAILOUT on Alabama -5.5

The Alabama Crimson Tide have been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season.  They have gone 25-6 SU this season and are 15-9 ATS in their last 24 games overall.  They have consistently been getting margin with their up-tempo style under Nate Oats, and that's why I'm willing to lay the points with them here against Maryland.

I believe Maryland is one of the worst teams left in the NCAA Tournament.  They are just 17-13 this season and had recent upset losses to both Penn State and Northwestern, who of the worst teams in the Big Ten.  They somehow shot 51.2% and held UConn to 32.3% shooting last round, which was an aberration and won't happen again.

Maryland is one of the worst teams in the country at defending the 3-pointer.  That makes this a terrible matchup for them as Alabama ranks in the Top 30 in the country in amount of points coming from the 3-point line as they hoist 30 per game at a 35% clip.  And while this Alabama offense that scores 79.2 PPG gets the attention, the Crimson Tide actually rank 2nd in the country in defensive efficiency.  They give up just 40.4% shooting as a team and 28.5% shooting from 3-point range on the season.  Maryland is a terrible offensive team and won't be able to keep up on the scoreboard in this one.

Maryland is 0-9 ATS in its last nine games after a combined score of 125 points or less.  The Terrapins are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following an ATS win.  Maryland is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games after winning two of its last three games coming in this season.  Bet Alabama Monday.

15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota Timberwolves -2

The Minnesota Timberwolves have come out of the All-Star Break a rejuvenated team.  They have gone 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall against all playoff contenders.  They beat the Pelicans by 30 as 8-point dogs, the Blazers by 2 as 5.5-point dogs and the Suns by 4 as 11-point dogs.

Now the Timberwolves come in rested and ready to go on two days' rest.  They finally take on a non-playoff contender here in the Thunder, who they should handle.  The Thunder are short-handed right now missing Darius Bazley (11.9 PPG, 7.5 RPG) and George Hill (11.8 PPG).  They could be without their best player in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (23.5 PPG, 6.0 APG) along with Al Horford (14.3 PPG, 6.7 RPG), who are both questionable.  That's four of their top five scorers.

Gilgeous-Alexander and Horford both sat out Sunday's 114-112 win over Houston.  But that's a Rockets team that is now 0-20 SU in its last 20 games overall and the worst team in the NBA.  Now the Thunder will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back here, and whether or not those two return this is still a very difficult situation for them playing a Timberwolves team that is on two days' rest.  The Thunder are at a huge disadvantage here.

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Minnesota) - an up-tempo team averaging 83 or more shots per game against an opponent that has gone five straight games allowing a shooting percentage of 47% or higher are 40-15 (72.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  

Minnesota plays at the 3rd-fastest pace in the NBA and will definitely test Oklahoma City's tired legs.  The Thunder are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games playing on zero rest.  The Timberwolves are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 meetings with OKC.  Roll with the Timberwolves Monday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Sacramento Kings -3.5

The Sacramento Kings are starting to play a lot better basketball here of late.  They are 5-5 SU in their last 10 games overall with three losses by 6 points or fewer.  The only games they were blown out were on the 2nd of a back-to-back at Philadelphia and at Atlanta, which has won eight straight games.

Sacramento now comes in rested after having yesterday off.  They take a big step down in competition here against Cleveland, which will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after an upset win over the Raptors last night.  It will also be the 5th game in 7 days for the Cavaliers, who are already short-handed right now due to all their injuries.  They won't have much left in the tank here for the Kings, who play at a frantic pace and will test those tired legs more than most teams would.

The Kings are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with the Cavaliers, winning by 13, 19 and 14 points.  They are also 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings, and 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings in Cleveland.  Cleveland is 7-17 ATS in its last 24 games overall.  The Cavaliers are 3-15 ATS when playing six or more games in 10 days this season, losing by an average of 14.0 points per game in this spot.  Take the Kings Monday.

15* CBB Monday Night Line Mistake on LSU +5

Michigan really peaked too early.  But the Wolverines have gone 3-3 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall with two of their wins coming against Michigan State and Maryland, two fringe NCAA Tournament teams.  The other was in the Round of 64 against Texas Southern, but I cashed in Texas Southern +26.5 easily as they only lost by 16 to Michigan.  I'll gladly fade the Wolverines again for a number of the same reasons.

The Wolverines lost their best player in Isaiah Livers (13.7 PPG, 6.1 RPG) to an ankle injury against Maryland and didn't have him in their loss to Ohio State in the Big Ten Tournament.  They are going to have to slow it down and rely on defense to win games without Livers.  They can't be trusted to lay these kinds of numbers without him.

Now they take a big step up in competition against LSU, which unlike Michigan, is peaking at the right time.  The Tigers are 5-1 SU & 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They beat Vanderbilt by 15 as 15-point favorites, Missouri by 6 as 3.5-point road dogs, Ole Miss by 3 as 1-point favorites, Arkansas by 7 as 3.5-point favorites and St. Bonaventure by 15 as 2-point favorites.  

Their lone loss came 79-80 to Alabama as 6-point dogs in the SEC Championship Game only after they missed a handful of opportunities to win it just before the buzzer.  And I hold Alabama in very high regard.  If they can nearly beat Alabama, they can certainly beat a Michigan team that's without Livers.

The Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last four neutral site games.  LSU is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as an underdog.  The Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  LSU is 6-0 ATS in its six games vs. teams who are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game this season.  These four trends combine for a 20-1 system backing the Tigers.  Roll with LSU Monday.

15* CBB Monday UPSET SHOCKER on Ohio +5.5

The Ohio Bobcats are playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch.  They have gone 10-1 SU & 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall with three wins by a combined 44 points in the MAC Tournament despite being underdogs in two of them to Toledo and Buffalo.  And don't forget, the Bobcats took Illinois to the wire earlier this season in a 75-77 loss as 15.5-point road underdogs.

Then Ohio came out and upset Virginia 62-58 as 6.5-point dogs in the Round of 64.  Now I think they take a step down in competition here against Creighton and are once again underdogs of 5.5 points.  This is a game the Bobcats can certainly win outright, and those games against both Virginia and Illinois prove they can hang with and beat anyone.

Creighton was fortunate to survive in a 63-62 win as 7.5-point favorites over UC-Santa Barbara in the Round of 64.  The Bluejays are now 4-3 SU & 3-4 ATS in their last seven games overall and dealing with the aftermath of the Greg McDermott racist comments.  They lost by 25 to Georgetown, by 12 to Villanova and by 8 to Xavier.  Two of their wins came against lowly Butler, another was a 3-point win over UConn and then that 1-point win over UCSB.  They just aren't playing well enough right now to be laying 5.5 points to a team that is playing as well as Ohio is.

The Bobcats are 6-0 ATS in their last six neutral site games.  Ohio is 22-7 ATS in its last 29 games overall.  The Bobcats are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as underdogs.  The Bluejays are 2-12-2 ATS in their last 16 NCAA Tournament games.  Creighton is 0-4 ATS in its last four NCAA Tournament games as a favorite.  Take Ohio Monday.

20* Oregon/Iowa CBB Early ANNIHILATOR on Oregon +5.5

Once Oregon got past all the COVID problems they really flashed their potential down the stretch this season.  They went 11-2 SU in their final 13 games this season with each of their last five victories coming by double-digits.  This late-season should come as no surprise as Oregon head coach Dana Altman is one of the best in the country and always has his teams playing their best basketball late in the season.  

Altman is 15-4 ATS in all NCAA Tournament games as the coach of Oregon, including a perfect 6-0 ATS in first round games.  His teams have won by 18.5 points per game on average in the first round.  Well, the Ducks didn't have to play a first-round game because it got canceled due to COVID issues for VCU.  That means the Ducks will be the fresher, more prepared team here against Iowa.

Iowa is about as vulnerable a Top 2 seed as there is in the NCAA Tournament.  That's because they don't defend very well, and they are particularly poor at defending the 3-pointer, ranking outside the Top 200 in that department.  That's bad news considering they will be up against one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the country in Oregon that shoots it at a 37.9% clip.  

Oregon also turns it over just 11 times per game and will get great shots almost every time down the floor.  Iowa shot 53.7% and held Grand Canyon to 42.9% yet still failed to cover in a 12-point win as 13.5-point favorites.  Oregon will close the gap in that department and has a great shot to win this game outright.

The Ducks are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 neutral site games.  Oregon is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. good offensive teams that score 77-plus points per game.  The Ducks are 27-11 ATS in their last 38 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Oregon is 6-0 ATS in its last six NCAA Tournament games as an underdog.  The Hawkeyes are 1-4 ATS in their last five NCAA Tournament games as a favorite.  Bet Oregon Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Late-Night BAILOUT on Dallas Mavericks ML -121

I love the spot for the Dallas Mavericks tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 119-125 road loss to the Portland Trail Blazers on Friday.  Now they get to face the Blazers again here just two days later and will be the more motivated team.  I think that will be enough to push them over the top and get a win here.

The Mavericks were just in this situation right before this series.  They had a double-headed with the Clippers.  After losing the first meeting 99-109, they came back two days later and crushed the Clippers 105-89.  And now after being a 2.5-point favorite in that first meeting with the Blazers, they are just 1.5-point favorites in the rematch.  I'm taking them on the money line though and the price is even better than it was in that first meeting.

It's double-revenge this season for the Mavericks as well after losing their other previous meeting with the Blazers by 3 points at home.  It's also triple-revenge if we go back to the end of last season as well.  Either way, that motivation will be on their side here, and I think the Blazers relax a little after winning three straight games overall coming in.

Not to mention, the Mavericks blew a 5-point lead entering the 4th quarter on Friday.  The Mavericks are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss.  Dallas is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a SU loss.  Take the Mavericks Sunday.

20* Oregon State/Oklahoma State CBB No-Brainer on Oregon State +6.5

Oregon State has been one of the most underrated teams in the country since mid-January.  The Beavers are 16-3-1 ATS in their last 20 games overall with 10 outright victories as underdogs.  They dominated from start to finish and pulled the 70-56 upset as 8.5-point dogs to Tennessee in the opening round, and now they are being undervalued once again as 6.5-point dogs to Oklahoma State.

They pulled off three upsets against three of the best teams in the Pac-12 to win the conference tournament.  They beat UCLA outright as 5.5-point dogs, crushed Oregon by 11 as 8.5-point dogs, and led basically the entire way against Colorado in the championship game in another outright win as 8.5-point dogs.  What more does this team need to do to get some respect?

Oklahoma State found itself in a dog fight with a bad Liberty team.  The Cowboys were very fortunate to cover in a 69-60 win as 7-point favorites.  They trailed by 3 at halftime and didn't finally put the game away until the closing minute.  This is a big step up in competition here against Oregon State.  And they are facing a Beavers team playing with a ton of confidence and shooting the 3-pointer at better than a 44% clip over their last handful of games.

The Beavers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games as underdogs.  Oregon State is 10-1-1 ATS in its last 12 games following an ATS win.  The Beavers are 12-0 ATS in their last 12 games after playing three consecutive games as underdogs this season.  The Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their last six NCAA Tournament games as favorites.  Take Oregon State Sunday.

25* Round of 32 GAME OF THE YEAR on Oral Roberts +8.5

Oral Roberts went 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in its final five games this season to punch its ticket into the Big Dance after winning the Summit League Tournament.  They pulled off upsets over South Dakota State and North Dakota State to get here in the final two games of the tournament.  Then they upset Ohio State 75-72 as 15-point underdogs.  I was on them in that game and I'm back on them today against Florida.

This Oral Roberts team is an offensive juggernaut and can keep up with a team like the Gators.  The Golden Eagles have scored 75 or more points in each of their last 10 games overall and topped 80 points seven times.  They have averaged 84.3 points per game in their last 10 games.

There's also four games that really stand out for Oral Roberts in the non-conference outside of that upset win over Ohio State.  After getting blasted by Missouri in their opener, they held their own against four other NCAA Tournament teams.  They only lost at Wichita State (80-85) as 10-point dogs, at Oklahoma State (78-83) as 15.5-point dogs, at Oklahoma (65-79) as 16.5-point dogs and at Arkansas (76-87) as 19.5-point dogs.  If they can hang with those five teams, they can certainly hang with Florida.

The Gators were fortunate to get into the NCAA Tournament with a 14-9 record.  They went 4-5 SU & 2-7 ATS over their final nine games this season.  They lost by double-digits to Tennessee twice and also to Arkansas by doubles.  Their four wins during this stretch all came against non-NCAA Tournament teams in Georgia, Auburn, Kentucky and Vanderbilt.  They went 0-4 against NCAA Tournament teams and also lost to lowly South Carolina.  They trailed basically the entire way against Virginia Tech in their NCAA Tournament opener and were fortunate to win that game in OT.

Oral Roberts is 8-0 ATS in road games after scoring 75 points or more in two straight games this season.  The Golden Eagles are 9-2 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  Oral Roberts is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games after two or more consecutive ATS wins.  The Gators are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games after a win by 6 points or less.  Florida is 1-5 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Oral Roberts Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Raptors -7.5

It's time to 'buy low' on the Toronto Raptors after going 0-7 SU in their last seven games overall.  But they just got VanVleet, Siakam and Onunoby back from COVID and nearly upset the Jazz in a 112-115 loss as 5.5-point dogs last time out.  They are highly motivated to end this skid and should be able to beat the Cleveland Cavaliers by double-digits tonight.

The Cavaliers are 1-5 SU in their last five games overall with three losses coming by 15 points or more to the Pelicans by 34, the Hawks by 18 and the Heat by 15.  While the Raptors are finally fully healthy, the Cavaliers are missing four or five key players right now.  That's why they have struggled so much of late to even be competitive.

The Raptors are 6-1 SU in their last seven meetings with the Cavaliers with five of those wins coming by double-digits.  Toronto is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games playing on one days' rest.  Cleveland is 5-17 ATS in its last 22 games following an ATS loss.  The Cavaliers are 21-45-1 ATS in their last 67 games playing on one days' rest.  Roll with the Raptors Sunday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington Wizards +8.5

It's definitely a great time to 'sell high' on the Brooklyn Nets after going 14-2 SU in their last 16 games overall.  That has been evident here of late as they are just 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall with narrow victories over the Knicks, Pistons and Pacers and an outright loss to the Magic as double-digit dogs.

Now I'll gladly take the 8.5-points here with the Washington Wizards.  It's a great time to 'buy low' on them after going 1-5 SU in their last six games overall.  But that lone victory came last time out in an upset win over the Jazz as 11-point dogs.  And now they've had two days' rest and will be fresh and ready to go against the Nets tonight.

The Wizards are already 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in their two meetings with the Nets this season, winning outright as 7-point road dogs and 5.5-point home dogs.  So there's no reason they should be 8.5-point dogs here, especially since they are healthier now than they were in those two previous meetings.  And Kevin Durant played in each of those first two meetings, but they are without him now.

The Wizards are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as underdogs.  Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Brooklyn is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The Wizards are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Wizards Sunday.

15* Syracuse/WVU Round of 32 ANNIHILATOR on Syracuse +4.5

The Syracuse Orange are playing with a chip on their shoulder because they had a ton of naysayers that stated they shouldn't even be in the NCAA Tournament.  But the fact of the matter is they earned their spot, and they have saved their best basketball for last which always seems to be the case with head coach Jim Boeheim.  They have also done their best work in the NCAA Tournament as a double-digit seed, making recent Final Four and Sweet 16 runs the last two times it happened.

Syracuse is 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall with its only loss coming to Virginia on a last-second 3-pointer in the ACC Tournament as a 5.5-point dogs.  They beat UNC by 2, Clemson by 10, NC State by 21 and then San Diego State by 16.  This game should be lined closer to a PK with the way Syracuse is playing right now.

West Virginia was in a close game with Morehead State before finally pulling away late.   The Mountaineers allowed 52% shooting and they just have a way of losing closing games this season with four recent losses all by 5 points or fewer.  They are just tough to trust late in games against quality competition because they take such poor shots.  And I like backing Syracuse in tournament situations where teams only have one day or less to get ready for them.  Boeheim's patented 2-3 zone takes time to prepare for.

Syracuse is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games as a neutral court underdog of 3.5 to 6 points.  The Orange are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games when seeded 9 through 12 in the NCAA Tournament.  West Virginia is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games after a win by 15 points or more.  The Orange are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine neutral site games as underdogs, including 5-0 ATS in their last five NCAA Tournament games as underdogs.  I expect that huge chip on their shoulder to lead to another upset victory here over the Mountaineers.  Roll with Syracuse Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Texas -8

If you listened to my podcast this week you know I'm high on Texas to make a Final Four Run playing in the easiest region, which is the East.  I'm high on them for a number of reasons, and I'm certainly laying the points with them in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament against Abilene Christian Saturday.

The Longhorns are playing their best basketball of the season.  They have won five straight games coming in and only had to win two games in the Big 12 Tournament to win it all.  That's because their semifinal game against Kansas got canceled.  So they should still be pretty fresh.  They beat both Texas Tech and Oklahoma State in the Big 12 Tournament.

The guard trio of Jones, Ramey and Coleman II are elite and all average 12.4 PPG or more.  They all shoot better than 80% from the free throw line as well.  Another guard in Febres has only played in their last 10 games and is improving with each game, scoring in double figures in two of his last four games.

Texas also has a pair of elite post players in Jerricho Sims and Kai Jones.  Sims averaged 15.5 points and 12.5 rebounds in the Big 12 Tournament and is an athletic freak who does everything for this game.  Jones added 11.5 points and 6.0 boards in the tournament and even shoots 36.7% from 3-point range on the season.  There's just no weaknesses with this team.

Abilene Christian is one of the shortest teams in the country.  They are going to have a hard time getting rebounds against Texas, which is one of the taller teams in the country.  The Longhorns are +5 in rebounding margin this season due to their size inside.  They defend at an elite level, holding opponents to 41.3% shooting this season.  

Abilene Christian played one of the easiest schedules in the country with their only two difficult games coming in a 13-point loss to Arkansas and a 7-point loss to Texas Tech in which the Red Raiders had an off shooting night at 27.9%, yet still found a way to win that game.  Abilene played the 330th-ranked schedule in the country, while Texas played the 33rd-ranked schedule.

Texas went 11-2 SU in all road/neutral games this season while playing its best basketball away from home.  The Longhorns are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games off a conference win.  Texas is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games after two or more consecutive wins.  The Longhorns are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  The Longhorns are 4-0 ATS in their last four neutral site games.  Roll with Texas Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies -5.5

The Memphis Grizzlies took the Golden State Warriors lightly yesterday because they were without Stephen Curry.  They paid for it in a 103-116 upset loss as 7-point favorites.  They won't make the same mistake again in the rematch Saturday.

Now it's time to 'buy low' on the Grizzlies, who will be the more motivated team here and who we are getting at a better number than yesterday.  Oddsmakers have adjusted this line down from -7 to -5.5 in favor of the Grizzlies.  I love the value here knowing we are getting the more motivated team.

The Warriors are likely to be without Curry (29.0 PPG), Wiseman (11.8 PPG, and Paschall (9.5 PPG) again tonight.  So the 2nd of a back-to-back hurts them more knowing they are already short-handed, while the Grizzlies are fully healthy and should have all hands on deck.  Andrew Wiggins isn't scoring 40 points and going 14-of-24 from the field and 6-of-11 from 3-point range again.  The Grizzlies will make the proper adjustments to stop him, and the rest of this Warriors roster isn't good enough to beat them.

Golden State is 1-8 ATS after two or more consecutive wins this season.  The Warriors are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 games playing on zero rest.  Golden State is 11-23-1 ATS in its last 35 games following a win by more than 10 points.  The Grizzlies are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU loss.  Memphis is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as a home favorite.  Roll with the Grizzlies Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/Warriors UNDER 221.5

As the Memphis Grizzlies have gotten healthy, they have become a great UNDER team in recent weeks.  They are filled with elite defenders when healthy, which is a big reason they are 10-2 UNDER in their last 12 games overall.  The JA Morant effect always has their totals inflated.

The Warriors have also been a great UNDER bet of late.  They are 9-3 UNDER in their last 12 games overall.  Now they are definitely an UNDER team tonight as they are likely to be without Steph Curry (29.0 PPG) once again as he is listed as doubtful.  They will also be without James Wiseman (11.8 PPG) and Eric Paschall (9.5 PPG).

I cashed in the UNDER 224 between the Grizzlies and Warriors last night in a game that saw just 219 combined points after a frantic finish in the 4th quarter.  That total closed at 221, and I expect this one to be on the move as well and finish lower than 221.5.  I love taking UNDERS in these double-header situation where the same two teams face each other in back-to-back games.  Familiarity favors defense and UNDER.

The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in this series.  In fact, the Grizzlies and Warriors have combined for 224 or fewer points in 10 of their last 12 meetings in this series.  The UNDER is 9-3 in those 12 meetings.  The UNDER is 8-1 in Warriors last nine road games.  The UNDER is 36-17 in Warriors last 53 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The UNDER is 29-9 in Grizzlies last 38 home games, including 11-2 in Grizzlies last 13 home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Ohio +7.5

Virginia got popped with COVID and was forced out of the ACC Tournament.  The Cavaliers haven't been able to practice leading up to the NCAA Tournament, so there's no doubt they are going to be rusty.  They are primed to get upset by Ohio here Saturday.

The Bobcats are playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch.  They have gone 9-1 SU & 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall with three wins by a combined 44 points in the MAC Tournament despite being underdogs in two of them to Toledo and Buffalo.  And don't forget, the Bobcats took Illinois to the wire earlier this season in a 75-77 loss as 15.5-point road underdogs.

Virginia plays the type of style that lets teams hang around even if they weren't in a tough situation on here with COVID.  They slow it down to a snails' pace always and rely on their defense to win games.  Well, Ohio averages 80.9 points per game and shoots 48.9% as a team.  They will get plenty of points to stay within this number and possibly pull off the upsets.

The Bobcats are 5-0 ATS in their last five neutral site games.  Ohio is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 games overall.  The Cavaliers are 11-24 ATS in their last 35 postseason tournament games.  The Cavaliers are 7-18 ATS in their last 25 first-round tournament games.  Virginia is 1-5 ATS in its last six neutral site games.  Take Ohio Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Texas Southern +26.5

Texas Southern (17-8) should not be catching 26.5 points against Michigan in the Round of 64.  The Tigers have gone 15-1 SU in their last 16 games overall with their only loss coming by 2 points.  They can hang with the Wolverines based off of what we've seen from them in the non-conference.

The Tigers only lost to Washington State by 4 as 10-point dogs, to Oklahoma State by 20 as 19.5-point dogs, upset Wyoming as 9.5-point dogs, covered against St. Mary's in a 12-point loss as 15.5-point dogs, lost to Auburn by 17 as 14-point dogs and lost to BYU by 16 as 17.5-point dogs.  They really weren't overmatched in any of those games, and they won't be overmatched enough by Michigan to lose this game by 27-plus, which is what it's going to take for the Wolverines to cover this number.

Michigan really peaked too early.  But the Wolverines have gone 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS in their last five games overall with their only wins coming against Michigan State and Maryland, two fringe NCAA Tournament teams.  The Wolverines lost their best player in Isaiah Livers (13.7 PPG, 6.1 RPG) to an ankle injury against Maryland and didn't have him in their loss to Ohio State in the Big Ten Tournament.  They are going to have to slow it down and rely on defense to win games without Livers.  They can't be trusted to lay these kinds of numbers without him.

Texas Southern is a perfect 9-0 ATS in its last nine games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15-plus games.  The Tigers are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games.  The Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  Take Texas Southern Saturday.

20* Georgetown/Colorado CBB Early ANNIHILATOR on Georgetown +6.5

Georgetown has been grossly undervalued all season as evidenced by their 16-9 ATS record.  They saved their best basketball for last, going 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall with their only losses coming to UConn (twice).

The Hoyas won four straight games outright as underdogs in the Big East Tournament, outscoring their opponents by a combined 53 points in the process.  They won by 19 over Marquette, by 1 over Villanova, by 8 over Seton Hall and then blasted Creighton by 25 in the championship game while playing their 4th game in 4 days.

I like the fact that this game will be played on Saturday instead of Friday, giving the Hoyas and extra day to recover from playing four games in four days.  And I also like the early 12:15 EST start time, which is going to be a 10:15 body clock game for Colorado as they are from the Mountain time zone.  The Buffaloes aren't used to playing games this early, but the Hoyas are as they are from the East Coast.

The Hoyas are an elite defensive team as they held opponents to 56.5 points per game in the Big East Tournament.  They had four different players average double figures scoring in the tournament, led by Blair and his 15.3 PPG plus Wahab and his 14.3 PPG and 8.3 RPG inside. 

I usually look to fade the Pac-12 in the NCAA Tournament because they are the weakest of the Power conferences.  Colorado had all three games in its Pac-12 Tournament decided by 3 points or less.  They only beat Cal by 3 as 14-point favorites.  They beat USC by 2 as 1.5-point favorites.  And they lost outright to Oregon State by 2 as 8.5-point favorites in the Championship Game and trailed the entire way.

I just don't like much about this Colorado team outside PG Wright IV and C Battey, who has a hard time staying out of foul trouble.  They just rely too much on those two players to get their production, so they are pretty easy to stop.  The Buffaloes are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 neutral site games as favorites.  Colorado is 0-4 ATS in its last four NCAA Tournament Games.  They have been terrible away from Colorado through the years.  The Hoyas come in with a ton of confidence from winning the Big East Tournament and that momentum carries over here with a likely upset of the Buffaloes in the opening round.  Bet Georgetown Saturday.

15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Toronto Raptors +5.5

The Toronto Raptors have been playing without Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby for a couple weeks now.  That's 54 points per game of production they have been missing.  It's not wonder they have gone just 1-8 SU in their last nine games overall.

But all three are back now, and it's time to 'buy low' on this team as 5.5-point home underdogs to the Utah Jazz tonight.  The Raptors will be fresh and ready to go tonight playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  They will be playing with a sense of urgency to try and end their six-game losing streak, and I think they have a great shot to win this game outright, let alone cover the 5.5-point spread.

The Jazz have come back down to the reality of late in going 3-5 SU & 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Their only three wins have come against the Magic, Rockets and Celtics.  They just lost outright to the Wizards as double-digit favorites last night.  All five starters played more than 30 minutes in trying to come back to win that game, so they will now be on tired legs playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th road game in 6 days.

The Jazz are 8-17-2 ATS in their last 27 games following a loss.  The Raptors are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  Toronto is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on one days' rest.  The Raptors are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 meetings with the Jazz, including 6-1 ATS in their last seven home meetings.  Utah is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games fater trailing in its previous game by 15 points or more at halftime.  Toronto is 17-4 ATS in its last 21 games after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games coming in.  Roll with the Raptors Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Warriors/Grizzlies UNDER 224

As the Memphis Grizzlies have gotten healthy, they have become a great UNDER team in recent weeks.  They are filled with elite defenders when healthy, which is a big reason they are 9-2 UNDER in their last 11 games overall.  The JA Morant effect always has their totals inflated.

The Warriors have also been a great UNDER bet of late since getting their big men in Wiseman and Looney back healthy.  The Warriors are 8-3 UNDER in their last 11 games overall.  Now they are definitely an UNDER team tonight as they are likely to be without both Steph Curry (29.0 PPG) and Kelly Oubre Jr (15.2 PPG), which are two of their top three scorers.  Both are listed as doubtful, and they will be without their fifth-leading scorer in Eric Paschall (9.5 PPG) as well.

The UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings in this series with combined scores of 224, 212 and 209 points.  In fact, the Grizzlies and Warriors have combined for 224 or fewer points in nine of their last 11 meetings in this series.  The UNDER is 8-3 in those 11 meetings.  There's a ton of value with the UNDER 224 tonight.

The UNDER is 7-1 in Warriors last eight road games.  The UNDER is 35-17 in Warriors last 52 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The UNDER is 28-9 in Grizzlies last 37 home games, including 10-2 in Grizzlies last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* CBB Friday Night Line Mistake on Cleveland State +20.5

The Cleveland State Vikings have been undervalued all season.  They went 19-7 SU & 17-8-1 ATS this season and are once again getting zero respect from the books in the opening round.  They are 20.5-point underdogs to the Houston Cougars.  I fully expect them to give Houston a run for its money.

Cleveland State has been competitive in every game this season with two exceptions.  They lost 46-101 at Ohio, but that was due to shooting 22.8% as a team.  It was a complete aberration.  They came back in their next game and only lost 61-67 as 23.5-point dogs at Ohio State to really show their potential.  The Buckeyes are a fellow No. 2 seed alongside Houston.  They also lost 49-85 at Wright State the day after upsetting Wright State as a 9.5-point underdog.  It was a letdown spot for them, and a revenge spot for Wright State as they shot just 27.9% in that game.

Houston is way overvalued coming into the NCAA Tournament after going 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS in its last seven games overall.  That includes 38 and 37-point victories over Cincinnati.  The other covers came against Western Kentucky, South Florida and Tulane.  The two non-covers were close wins against Memphis by 3 and 2 points.  So they haven't faced a single NCAA Tournament team in their last seven games.  The last one they faced they lost outright at Wichita State as 7.5-point favorites.  They only faved two NCAA Tournament teams all season in Wichita State and Texas Tech, so they padded their record against a soft schedule as the AAC was way down this season.

Dennis Gates is 9-1 ATS after scoring 80 points or more as the coach of Cleveland State.  The Vikings are 9-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record this season.  Cleveland State is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games as an underdog.  The Vikings are 4-0 ATS in their last four neutral site games.  The Cougars are 1-4 ATS in their last five games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game.  Take Cleveland State Friday.

20* Oregon State/Tennessee CBB No-Brainer on Oregon State +8

Oregon State has been one of the most underrated teams in the country since mid-January.  The Beavers are 15-3-1 ATS in their last 19 games overall with nine outright victories as underdogs.  They are being undervalued once again here as 8-point dogs in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament.

They pulled off three upsets against three of the best teams in the Pac-12 to win the conference tournament.  They beat UCLA outright as 5.5-point dogs, crushed Oregon by 11 as 8.5-point dogs, and led basically the entire way against Colorado in the championship game in another outright win as 8.5-point dogs.  What more does this team need to do to get some respect?

Tennessee faded a little down the stretch in going 5-4 SU & 3-5-1 ATS in their final nine games.  I just don't think this team is good enough to be laying this kind of number against a team playing as well as Oregon State.  And I just don't trust head coach Rick Barnes, who is 7-17-1 ATS in his last 25 NCAA Tournament games and failed time and time again dating back to his time at Texas in this spot.

The Beavers are 13-3 ATS int heir last 16 games as underdogs.  Oregon State is 9-1-1 ATS in its last 11 games following an ATS win.  The Vols are 0-4 ATS in their last four NCAA Tournament games.  Tennessee is 0-4 ATS in its last four NCAA Tournament games as favorites.  The Beavers are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games after playing three consecutive games as underdogs this season.  Take Oregon State Friday.

15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Oral Roberts +16.5

Oral Roberts went 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in its final five games this season to punch its ticket into the Big Dance after winning the Summit League Tournament.  They pulled off upsets over South Dakota State and North Dakota State to get here in the final two games of the tournament.

This Oral Roberts team is an offensive juggernaut and can keep up with a team like Ohio State, which is vulnerable defensively.  The Golden Eagles scored 75 or more points in each of their final nine games this season and topped 80 points seven times.  They averaged 85.3 points per game in those nine games.

There's also four games that really stand out for Oral Roberts in the non-conference.  After getting blasted by Missouri in their opener, they held their own against four other NCAA Tournament teams.  They only lost at Wichita State (80-85) as 10-point dogs, at Oklahoma State (78-83) as 15.5-point dogs, at Oklahoma (65-79) as 16.5-point dogs and at Arkansas (76-87) as 19.5-point dogs.  If they can hang with those four teams, they can certainly hang with Ohio State.

I think the Buckeyes are a little fatigued right now after playing four games in four days in the Big Ten Tournament, including two overtime games.  All four games went down to the wire as they beat Minnesota by 4, beat Purdue in OT, beat Michigan by 1 and lost to Illinois in OT.  Now they have to play on Friday in the first slate of Round of 64 games.  It's going to be a tall task to ask them to beat Oral Roberts by 17-plus points to cover this number.

Oral Roberts is 7-0 ATS in road games after scoring 75 points or more in two straight games this season.  The Golden Eagles are 8-2 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  The Buckeyes are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 NCAA Tournament games.  Ohio State is 0-6 ATS in its last six NCAA Tournament games as a favorite.  Bet Oral Roberts Friday.

25* Round of 64 GAME OF THE YEAR on Arkansas -8.5

This Arkansas team is one of the most underrated in the country.  They have gone 12-2 SU & 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  Their only losses came by 4 at Oklahoma State and by 7 to LSU in the SEC Tournament.  And I just love their head coach in Eric Musselman.

The 14-1 record for Colgate stands out like a sore thumb and has them overvalued.  But they played one of the easiest schedules in the country, which is the biggest reason for that record.  They played the 313th-ranked schedule.  They didn't play anyone outside the Patriot League this season, which is one of the weakest conferences in the country.

Arkansas will be by far the best team that Colgate has played this season, and it's not really even close.  Arkansas only had six losses all season and only one of those came against a team ranked outside the Top 30 in Kenpom, which was Missouri.  They beat three teams that are in the NCAA Tournament in the non-conference all by double-digits in North Texas, Oral Roberts and Abilene Christian, three teams that I believe are all better than Colgate.

Colgate has only faced five different opponents the entire season, and Army is the highest ranked team they played at KenPom and they're ranked 189th.  They lost by 23 to Clemson, by 16 to Syracuse and by 29 to Auburn in three non-conference games last year.  

Arkansas finished 35th in offensive efficiency this season.  Colgate didn't face a team that finished in the top 200 in offensive efficiency this season.  Arkansas ranks 14th in defensive efficiency.  Army is the best defensive team that Colgate has faced at 149th, and outside Loyola-Maryland, the Raiders didn't face another team that ranked better than 285th in defensive efficiency.

Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Colgate) - after four or more consecutive wins, when seeded 13 through 16 in the NCAA Tournament are 60-23 (72.3%) ATS since 1997.  The Razorbacks are 15-6 ATS as a favorite this season.  Arkansas is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Razorbacks are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss.  Bet Arkansas Friday.

15* VA Tech/Florida CBB Early ANNIHILATOR on Virginia Tech ML +100

This is the first game off the board Friday at 12:15 EST.  I think Virginia Tech is a sleeper in this NCAA Tournament and comes into this game with Florida way undervalued.  That's due to the three-week COVID pause late in the season that had everyone forget about how good of a team the Hokies were before the pause.

They went 14-4 before the pause.  They have gone just 1-2 since returning from it with the losses to Georgia Tech and North Carolina, the two teams that are arguably playing the best of anyone in the AC right now.  And they beat Wake Forest by 38 points in between those defeats.  I think having three games under their belts since the pause will have taken the rust away.  And I just think they are a much better team than Florida.

The Gators were fortunate to get into the NCAA Tournament with a 14-9 record.  They went 4-5 SU & 2-7 ATS over their final nine games this season.  They lost by double-digits to Tennessee twice and also to Arkansas by doubles.  Their four wins during this stretch all came against non-NCAA Tournament teams in Georgia, Auburn, Kentucky and Vanderbilt.  They went 0-4 against NCAA Tournament teams and also lost to lowly South Carolina.

Florida struggles to get good shots on offense and relies and creating turnovers and getting out in transition.  That makes this a bad matchup for the Gators.  Virginia Tech is one of the best teams in the country at taking care of the basketball, committing just 12 turnovers per game.  I also like that the Hokies are the 4th-best team in the country at defending the paint.  They only allow 41.9% shooting from the field on the season.

The Gators are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  Virginia Tech is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 Friday games.  The Hokies are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a SU loss.  Roll with Virginia Tech Friday.

20* UCLA/Michigan State CBB Late-Night BAILOUT on Michigan State -1.5

Two teams headed in opposite directions square off in the play-in game here with Michigan State taking on UCLA.  I'll side with the team with the positive momentum in the Spartans in a game they basically just have to win to cover.

Michigan State went 5-3 SU & 5-3 ATS in its final eight games of the season to earn its way into the NCAA Tournament.  That includes upset wins over Indiana, Illinois, Ohio State and Michigan.  Those latter three teams are two #1 seeds and a #2 seed in the NCAA Tournament, so they've proven they can play with anyone.

UCLA comes into the big dance limping to the finish line.  The Bruins went 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in their final four games this season, including an upset loss to Oregon State in their Pac-12 tournament opener.  And we saw UCLA lose to Ohio State in non-conference action in their lone game against a Big Ten opponent.

This game will be played in Purdue's Mackey Arena in West Lafayette, Indiana, which is an advantage for the Spartans because they are used to playing there every season.  They just played there on February 16th and being used to the venue and the rims is certainly an advantage.

The Bruins are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  UCLA is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games following a SU loss.  The Bruins are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 neutral site games.  UCLA is 8-21 ATS in its last 29 neutral site games as an underdog.  Take Michigan State Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Pelicans/Blazers UNDER 239.5

Yes, I've been cashing in on Pelicans OVERS as much as anyone in the industry this season.  So yes, it pains me to take an UNDER in their game tonight.  But the situation calls for it, and the books have missed their mark with this total because of it.

I cashed in the Mavs/Clippers UNDER 227 last night in the same situation in a game that saw just 196 combined points and went way under the number.  They had just played each other two days prior.  Well, the Pelicans and Blazers played just two days ago in Portland.  I cashed in the OVER 240 in that game.  But familiarity favors defense and UNDERS, and I look for this game to be way lower-scoring than that first meeting because of it.

Portland beat New Orleans 125-124 for 249 combined points two days ago.  But both teams aren't going to shoot as well tonight as they did in that game as the defenses adjust and take away their offensive strengths.  The Pelicans shot 52.3% from the field, 48.5% from 3-point range and 16-of-20 (80%) from the charity stripe in that game.  The Blazers shot 52.1% from the field, 41.9% from 3-point range and a ridiculous 31-of-31 (100%) from the free throw line.  Just a small dip in those shooting percentages from both teams will have us cashing in this UNDER 239.5 tonight.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +5.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Orlando Magic tonight off eight straight losses.  They have battled through injuries and continue to show up every night, which showed in their 97-102 loss as 7.5-point dogs to Miami last time out.  They also covered in an 8-point loss to the Heat a few games prior.  They are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games overall.

Now the Magic have had the last three days off to rest up and get healthier.  Both Evan Fournier and Aaron Gordon returned to practice finally and could play tonight.  Terrance Ross is also questionable and could play.  The Magic are more than capable of beating the Knicks without these guys given how rested and ready they are, but getting them back would be an added bonus.

This is an awful spot for the Knicks.  They return home following a four-game road trip that saw them lose to Milwaukee, Brooklyn and Philadelphia.  They lost by 5 to the Nets and by 3 to the 76ers in their last two games in heartbreaking fashion.  I think they suffer a hangover from those defeats, and I always like fading teams in their first game back home from a long road trip.  Not to mention, the Knicks are far from full strength with Mitchell Robinson, Derrick Rose, Austin Rivers and Elfrid Payton out plus star rookie Immanuel Quickley is questionable with an ankle injury.

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Orlando) - a cold team having lost 15 or more of their last 20 games against an opponent that has lost four or five of their last six games are 45-17 (72.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Orlando is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 road games after a division game.  Bet the Magic Thursday.