15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on New York Knicks -7.5

The Orlando Magic already have some of the worst talent in the entire NBA.  I think they are the worst team in the NBA to open the season with all their injuries.  They are without Gary Harris, Michael Carter-Williams, Chuma Okeke, E'Twuan Moore, Markelle Fultz and Jonathan Isaac.

Their lack of talent showed in their 97-123 road loss to the Spurs in the opener.  And it's not going to get any easier here against the Knicks, who beat the Boston Celtics 138-134 (OT) in their opener.

This is a Knicks team that was one of the most improved in the NBA last year and should build on that with the additions of Kemba Walker and Evan Fournier to go with Mitchell Robinson, RJ Barrett, Julius Randle, Obi Toppin, Derrick Rose and company.  Fournier had 32 points against the Celtics.

The Knicks are 22-6 ATS in their last 28 games vs. a team with a losing record.  New York is 35-17-1 ATS in its last 53 games overall.  Orlando is 1-7-1 ATS in its last nine home games.  The Magic are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games as underdogs.  Take the Knicks Friday.

15* NBA Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Miami Heat +3

The Miami Heat are loaded this season.  They brought in Kyle Lowry, P.J. Tucker and Markieff Morris to go with the already great core of Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo and Duncan Robinson.  Tyler Herro also figures to take a step forward.

Miami wants revenge from getting swept by the Milwaukee Bucks in the playoffs last year.  They obviously don't have to wait long to get it by hosting the Bucks in the opener.  This is a game I fully expect them to win outright.  The Bucks have four key guys out to injury.  Take the Heat Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Cavaliers +7.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers are flying under the radar to open the season.  They have Collin Sexton, Jarrett Allen and Darius Garland leftover from last year.  And they added Lauri Markkanen from the Bulls and drafted Evan Mobley with the No. 3 overall pick.

The Memphis Grizzlies are getting a lot of hype this season after making the playoffs last year.  They bring back JA Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr, but they are without Dillon Brooks to start the season and the trade of Jonas Valuncias for Steven Adams is a downgrade for them.  This number is too high for the opener.  Bet the Cavaliers Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -1

I like this Charlotte Hornets team.  They have LaMelo Ball, Gordon Hayward, Terry Rozier and Miles Bridges healthy to start the season.  They added Kelly Oubre Jr and drafted James Bouknight and Kai Jones.  They are fully healthy to start the season.

The Pacers will be a great 'bet on' team once they get healthy.  But they aren't healthy to start the season.  They are missing Caris LeVert and TJ Warren.  Both Jeremy Lamb and Justin Holidcay are questionable, and Malcolm Brogdon is already dealing with a shoulder injury.

The Hornets want revenge from a 117-144 road loss to the Pacers in the play-in game last year.  They don't have to wait long for revenge as they host the Pacers on opening night.  Take the Hornets Wednesday.

20* Warriors/Lakers NBA Season Opener on Los Angeles -3.5

The Los Angeles Lakers made a big move this offseason to bring in Russell Westbrook to play alongside LeBron James and Anthony Davis.  This might be the best Big 3 we've ever seen.  And all three are healthy to start the season to we get to see them in action on opening night.

With those three, the Lakers have six potential future Hall of Famers when you include Dwight Howard, Carmelo Anthony and Rajon Rondo.  They added shooting as well with Wayne Ellington, Malik Monk and Kendrick Nunn.  Ellington will be out, but Monk is expected to play and Nunn is questionable.

The Golden State Warriors open the season missing two of their best players again in Klay Thompson and James Wiseman.  Stephen Curry did a great job last year of getting the Warriors into the playoffs.  But he'll have to shoulder too much of the load again to start the season.

The Warriors are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games as road underdogs.  Bet the Lakers Tuesday.

20* Suns/Bucks ABC No-Brainer on Phoenix +5

The Milwaukee Bucks shot 57.5% from the floor and 14-of-28 (50%) from 3-point range to steal Game 5 in Phoenix.  I look for the Suns to return the favor here in Game 6 and take this series back to Phoenix for a Game 7.  It's clear the Bucks aren't going to shoot that well again.

Chris Paul has been off the last three games after a tremendous start to the series after a great close to the Clippers series.  I look for him to come up big here in Game 6 with the season on the line once again, and for Devin Booker to continue his great play.  The Suns should get more from their role players as well here tonight.

It's definitely a 'buy low' spot on the Suns off three consecutive losses after winning the first two games of this series.  The Bucks are 6-17 ATS following three or more consecutive wins this season.  Milwaukee wasn't this big of a favorite in either of its first two home meetings with the Suns in this series, so I believe there is value with the road team here.   Bet the Suns Tuesday.

20* Bucks/Suns ABC No-Brainer on UNDER 218

The longer a series goes the more familiar teams become with one another.  Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  And this should be the lowest scoring game of the series to date between the Bucks and Suns in this pressure-packed Game 5 tonight with the series tied 2-2 apiece.

I cashed in the UNDER 222 in Game 3 in a game that saw 220 combined points.  It still stayed UNDER the total despite a 69-point 3rd quarter. I cashed in the UNDER 220.5 in Game 4 in a game that saw just 212 combined points despite a 61-point 2nd quarter. And I'm expecting 212 or fewer combined points in Game 5 tonight as well, so we have some room to work with in this 218-point total.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 200 or higher (Phoenix) - off two or more consecutive road losses, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 36-11 (76.6%) over the last five seasons. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Suns/Bucks ABC No-Brainer on UNDER 220.5

The longer a series goes the more familiar teams become with one another. Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. And this should be the lowest scoring game of the series to date between the Bucks and Suns tonight.

I cashed in the UNDER 222 in Game 3 in a game that saw 220 combined points. It still stayed UNDER the total despite a 69-point 3rd quarter. I don't see another quarter being that high scoring again, but I do see one or two quarters with 50 points or fewer.

Phoenix has shot well in every game thus far and shot 48.2% again in Game 3. They are probably due for an off night from the field. And I don't see the Bucks scoring 120 again and shooting as well as they did in Game 3 either.

Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is 220 or higher (Phoenix) - a well rested team playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 44-14 (75.9%) over the last five seasons. Bet the UNDER in Game 4 Wednesday.

20* Suns/Bucks ABC No-Brainer on UNDER 222

The Phoenix Suns and Milwaukee Bucks went OVER the total in each of their first two games in this series.  Now I believe there is value in the UNDER in Game 3 tonight between the Bucks and Suns in this pivotal game for Milwaukee.

The longer a series goes, the more familiar teams become with one another.  And familiarity always favors defense and low scoring games.  That should prove to be the case in this series, starting with Game 3 tonight.

The Suns made 20 3-pointers in Game 2 and that game still saw just 226 combined points after a bunch of fouls at the end.  This game should stay well UNDER 222 combined points with the Suns not shooting nearly as well as they did last game.  And the Bucks have shot poorly for most of these playoffs and that should continue against an elite defensive team like Phoenix.

Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is 220 or higher (Phoenix) - a well rested team playing four or less games in 10 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 43-14 (75.4%) over the last five seasons.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 200 or higher (Milwaukee) - off two or more consecutive road losses, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 36-10 (78.3%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

25* NBA Finals GAME OF THE YEAR on Milwaukee Bucks +5.5

I lost on the Bucks +6 in Game 1 for a rare loss recently in these playoffs as I have been pretty spot on.  I like the value I got as the Bucks closed as 5-point dogs after it was announced that Giannis would play, but there were still questions about how effective he would be.

I think Giannis answered those questions in Game 1 with 20 points and 17 rebounds on 6-of-11 shooting in over 35 minutes of action.  And with a healthy Giannis in Game 2, the Bucks should not be even bigger 5.5-point underdogs to the Phoenix Suns Thursday night.

We've seen the Suns win and cover in all three Game 1's in these playoffs, but they've gone 1-2 ATS in their three Game 2's.  I think they will relax a little here and the Bucks will be playing with more of a sense of urgency in Game 2 to try and even this series heading back to Milwaukee.

The Suns had a huge advantage at the free throw line in Game 1 that isn't likely to happen again.  They made 16 more free throws than the Bucks, who only attempted 16 for the game.  Milwaukee is a great team at getting to the rim and drawing fouls and should get more benefit from the whistles in Game 2.  Bet the Bucks Thursday.

20* Bucks/Suns ABC No-Brainer on Milwaukee +6

I cashed in the Bucks in Games 5 and Games 6 against the Atlanta Hawks without Giannis.  The loss of him has created a big overreaction from the oddsmakers and the betting public, and that looks to be the case again in Game 1 against the Phoenix Suns as he is listed as doubtful.

The Bucks have now gone 8-2 this season in games that Kris Middleton has played in which Giannis hasn't.  Middleton, Holiday, Lopez and Portis combined for 106 points in the Game 5 win over the Hawks.  Middleton had 32 points and Holiday 27 in the Game 6 win.  Those are two of the most underrated players in the NBA and fully capable of keeping the Bucks competitive in this series without Giannis.

The Suns won both regular season meetings, but by just one point each.  I look for Game 1 to go down to the wire as well, so there is value in getting the Bucks as 6-point underdogs.  Bet the Bucks Tuesday.

20* Bucks/Hawks TNT No-Brainer on Milwaukee +2

I cashed in the Bucks in Game 5 and I'm back on them again in Game 6 due to the line value.  Consider that the Bucks were 8 and 8.5-point home favorites in Games 1 and 2.  And they were 5 and 8.5-point road favorites in Games 3 and 4.  Then they were -2 for Game 5 at the time we bet them and cashed that ticket.  Now they are underdogs for the first time in this series in Game 6.

The value is clearly with the Bucks, who have actually gone 7-2 SU this season in games that Kris Middleton has played in which Giannis hasn't.  The loss of Giannis is getting a big overreaction from the betting public and oddsmakers.  Trae Young has also missed the last two games for the Hawks and he is almost more important to them than Giannis is to the Bucks.  Young is questionable to return tonight and won't be anywhere near 100% if he does.

Middleton and Jrue Holiday are two of the most underrated players in the NBA.  Middleton had 26 points, 13 rebounds and 8 assists in Game 5 while Holiday added 25 points and 13 assists.  They got Brook Lopez involved as he scored 33 points, and Bobby Portis had 22.  There is just more talent outside of Giannis on their team than there is on the Hawks outside of Young.  Bet the Bucks Saturday.

20* Hawks/Bucks TNT No-Brainer on Milwaukee -2

We are getting great value on the Milwaukee Bucks in Game 5 tonight when you compare the previous lines in this series. We'll take advantage and back the Bucks as a short home favorite.

The Bucks were 8-point home favorites in Game 1, 8.5-point home favorites in Game 2, 5-point road favorites in Game 3 and 8.5-point road favorites in Game 4. So this is a huge adjustment and it's not warranted, even with the injury to Giannis.

The Hawks rallied without Trae Young in Game 4, and the Bucks will do the same thing without Giannis in Game 5. There's still enough talent on this team to get the job done and hold serve while Giannis misses at least one game. And the Hawks could be missing two of their best players in Young and Clint Capela, who are both questionable.

Plays on any team (Milwaukee) - revenging a blowout road loss by 20 points or more, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite are 53-24 (68.8%) ATS since 1996. Bet the Bucks Thursday.

20* Suns/Clippers ESPN No-Brainer on Phoenix +1

The Los Angeles Clippers had one of those shooting performances in Game 5 that is simply tough to overcome.  They won't shoot that well again in Game 6, and I fully expect the Suns to close out this series.

The Clippers shot 54.8% from the field and 93.3% from the free throw line in Game 5.  Paul George went 15-of-20 shooting and Reggie Jackson went 8-of-14 while Marcus Morris went 9-of-16.  It's unlikely those three shoot that well again as they are asked to carry the brunt of the scoring load.

The Suns shot 55.1% in Game 1 and 50% in Game 2 before falling down to 38.9% in Game 3, 36% in Game 4 and 45.2% in Game 5.  Look for them to get back to closer to 50% in Game 6 tonight.

Phoenix is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 road games off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite.  The Suns are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games when revenging a loss by 10 points or more.  Phoenix is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games.  The Suns are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following a loss.  Bet the Suns Wednesday.

20* Bucks/Hawks TNT No-Brainer on Atlanta +7

We are getting great value on the Atlanta Hawks in Game 4 tonight. They go from being 4.5-point underdogs in Game 3 to 7-point dogs in Game 4, a 2.5-point adjustment.

The Hawks are coming off two straight losses to the Bucks. They haven't lost three in a row since the end of April, so they have been a very resilient team. They are still 16-7 SU in their last 23 games overall.

The Hawks are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 home games. Atlanta is 51-23 ATS in its last 74 games following a double-digit home loss. Bet the Hawks Tuesday.

20* Clippers/Suns ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 214.5

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. The longer a series goes on, the more familiar teams become with one another, and the harder it is for the offense to execute.

That has been the case in this series between the Suns and Clippers. They combined for 234 points in Game 1, then just 207 points in Game 2, 198 points in Game 3 and 164 points in Game 4.

While I don't expect Game 5 to be as low scoring as Game 4 with 164 points, we have plenty of margin for error here with this 214.5-point total. Both teams aren't likely to shoot as poorly as they did in Game 4, but I don't see either team lighting it up either in this elimination game.

The UNDER is 31-15 in Clippers last 46 games as road underdogs. The UNDER is 35-17-3 in Clippers last 55 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* Bucks/Hawks TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 224

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  The longer a series goes, the more familiar teams become with one another and the harder it is for the offenses to score.

After combining for 229 points in Game 1, the Hawks and Bucks only combined for 216 points in Game 2.  And I think it will be even lower scoring in Game 3, so there's value with the UNDER 224 tonight.

The UNDER is 6-2-1 in Bucks last nine games overall.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Hawks last six games overall.  The UNDER is 10-1 in Hawks last 11 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game tonight.

20* Suns/Clippers ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 218.5

After a shootout in Game 1, the Suns and Clippers have come back down to earth the past two games.  And the longer a series goes the more familiar teams become with one another.  That familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.

Game 2 saw 207 combined points in a 104-103 victory by the Suns.  Game 3 saw 198 combined points in a 106-92 victory by the Clippers.  And Game 4 should stay well UNDER this 218.5-point total.

Having Chris Paul back makes the Suns a better defensive team, and a more efficient offensive team, but he was clearly rusty in Game 3 going 5-of-19 from the floor.  And Devin Booker is having to wear a mask which made him go 5-of-21 in Game 3.  The Suns have to play at a slower pace with Paul running the point and getting them in sets almost every trip down the floor.

The UNDER is 7-2 in the last nine meetings in Los Angeles.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings.  The UNDER is 23-10-3 in Clippers last 36 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Hawks/Bucks TNT No-Brainer on Milwaukee -7.5

The Atlanta Hawks pulled their 3rd straight Game 1 victory on the road in these playoffs.  Now it's time for the Milwaukee Bucks to not take them lightly in Game 2 and to get the job done to even this series.

We saw the Hawks lose both Game 2's in their first two series as well after winning Game 1.  They lost by 9 to the Knicks and then by 16 to the 76ers.  And I think we see a double-digit victory by the Bucks here tonight.

A lot went right for the Hawks in Game 1 that likely won't go in their favor again.  They shot 49.5% as a team while the Bucks shot just 8-of-36 (22.2%) from 3-point range.  The Bucks also attempted only 14 free throws, so the calls weren't going their way.  They will get to the line much more in Game 2 as they are more aggressive in attacking the rim.

Plays against underdogs (Atlanta) - off two consecutive upset wins as road underdogs, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 44-15 (74.6%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Bucks Friday.

20* Suns/Clippers ESPN No-Brainer on Los Angeles ML +106

Amazingly, the Los Angeles Clippers have trailed 2-0 in each of their first two series in these playoffs.  They've come back to win both series, beating the Mavericks in 7 and winning four straight to beat the Jazz in 6.

So the Clippers are a resilient bunch that won't be phased by being down 2-0 to the Suns.  And they won those final two games against Utah without Kawhi Leonard outright as underdogs before taking the Suns to the wire in each of the first two games in this series in 6 and 1-point losses.

Now the Clippers are back home where their fans will be very excited to see them playing in the Western Conference Finals.  Plus, I expect the Suns to relax a little, especially coming off a game-winner like they just had in Game 2.  I don't expect them to continue shooting as well as they have either as they shot 55.1% in Game 1 and 50% in Game 2 yet still only won those games by a combined 7 points.

Los Angeles is 34-17 ATS off a road loss over the last two seasons.  The Clippers are 37-21 ATS in their last 58 games following a SU loss.  Los Angeles is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games.  The Clippers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as home underdogs.  Los Angeles is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home meetings with Phoenix.  Bet the Clippers on the Money Line Thursday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hawks/Bucks OVER 225.5

Game 1 is the game to take an OVER in an NBA playoff series.  Teams don't know what to expect from one another and it gives the edge to the offenses.  We've seen that with the Hawks as they have gone OVER the total in both their Game 1's in these playoffs.  They combined with the 76ers for 252 points in Game 1 last series.

The Bucks are coming off a down offensive series against the Nets, but they should get right here against the Hawks.  Atlanta just doesn't have an answer for Giannis, so he'll be able to get whatever he wants.

The Hawks and Bucks combined for 244, 229 and 215 points in their three regular season meetings.  I think this 225.5-point total has been set too low for Game 1 at least.  Both teams attempt a ton of 3-pointers and hit them at a high clip.  That should be the case here with plenty of defensive mistakes in Game 1.

The OVER is 17-8-1 in the last 26 meetings in Milwaukee.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Clippers/Suns ESPN Total DOMINATOR on OVER 222.5

The Los Angeles Clippers have embraced their small ball lineup and it is paying dividends while also resulting in high-scoring games.  The OVER is 5-1 in Clippers last six games overall with combined scores of 222 or more points in all six games and an average of 233.7 combined points per game.

The Phoenix Suns are without Chris Paul, which hurts them defensively but it makes them play at a faster pace offensively.  So this series should be an OVER series until he returns.  And that was the case in Game 1 which saw 234 combined points despite only 26 combined free throws attempted.  There will surely be more foul calls in Game 2 tonight.

The OVER is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings in Phoenix.  The OVER is 4-0 in Clippers last four games as underdogs.  The OVER is 12-4-1 in Suns last 17 games following an ATS win.  The OVER is 25-12-1 in Suns last 38 games overall.  Roll with the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Hawks/76ers TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 217.5

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  We are now into Game 7 so the Hawks and 76ers are very familiar with one another.  And these Game 7's always seem to be lower scoring with the season on the line for both teams, so the pressure ramps up and the game slows down.

The UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings in this series from Games 4 through 6.  They combined for 203 points in Game 4, 215 points in Game 5 and 203 points in Game 6.  And now we have another total that is set way too high here at 217.5 for Game 7.

Atlanta is 16-1 UNDER in its last 17 games when attempting to close out a playoff series.  The Hawks are 17-5 UNDER in their last 22 games when facing elimination in a playoff series.  The UNDER is 9-2 in Hawks last 11 playoff games as underdogs.  The UNDER is 8-1 in Hawks last nine games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

Plays on the UNDER on any team (Atlanta) - in the 7th game of a playoff series are 52-22 (70.3%) since 1996.  Game 7 UNDERS have been money in the bank for years.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* Bucks/Nets TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 215

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  We are now into Game 7 so the Bucks and Nets are very familiar with one another.  And these Game 7's always seem to be lower scoring with the season on the line for both teams, so the pressure ramps up and the game slows down.

We've seen 211 or fewer combined points in four of the six meetings in this series as the UNDER is 5-0-1 thus far.  They have averaged just 203.3 combined points per game in this series, so we are still getting a ton of value on the UNDER 215.

James Harden is banged up and playing through a hamstring injury.  Kyrie Irving remains out with an ankle injury.  The Nets just aren't the same offensive juggernaut that they were when their Big 3 were healthy.  And the Bucks have been struggling offensively all series and that won't change tonight.

Milwaukee is 14-3 UNDER when playing against a team that wins 60% to 70% of their games this season.  The UNDER is 7-0-1 in Bucks last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 7-0-1 in the last eight meetings.  The UNDER is 7-0-1 in Nets last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* 76ers/Hawks ESPN Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 221.5

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  As a series goes on, teams become more familiar with one another.  And that's the case here for the Atlanta Hawks and Philadelphia 76ers in this Game 6 elimination game.

After combining for 203 points in Game 4, the Hawks and 76ers combined for 215 points in Game 3.  And both teams shot very well in that game with the 76ers are 45.9% and the Hawks at 46.7%.  They also attempted 66 combined free throws, yet that game still saw just 215 combined points.  So I like the chances of Game 6 staying well UNDER 221.5 points.

Atlanta is 15-1 UNDER in its last 16 games when attempting to close out a playoff series.  The Hawks are 24-7 UNDER in their last 31 playoff games when leading in the series.  The UNDER is 15-7 in 76ers last 22 road games.  The UNDER is 10-3 in Hawks last 13 games overall.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Nets/Bucks UNDER 220.5

This has been a very low scoring series with the UNDER going 4-0-1 in the first five games.  They combined for 222 points in Game 1, 211 points in Game 2, 169 points in Game 3, 203 points in Game 4 and 222 points in Game 5.  That's an average of just 205.4 combined points per game, so we are getting a ton of value with this UNDER 222 tonight.

Game 5 only saw 102 combined points at halftime but 122 after intermission.  Both teams shot lights out as the Bucks and Nets both shot exactly 49.4% from the floor.  That is unlikely to happen again, especially for the Nets with Harden basically a non-factor and Irving still out.

Familiarity favors defense and lower scoring games.  As a series goes on, teams become more familiar with one another.  And this is an elimination game with everything on the line.  It will be played at a slower pace which was the case in Game 5 with the slowest pace of the series.  That's especially the case without Irving and with a slowed Harden for the Nets.

Milwaukee is 12-2 UNDER in its last 14 home games following an upset loss as a road favorite.  The UNDER is 6-0-1 in Nets last seven games as underdogs.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Bucks last six games following a loss.  The UNDER is 6-0-1 in the last seven meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Hawks/76ers TNT No-Brainer on Philadelphia -6.5

The Philadelphia 76ers played their worst game of the series in Game 4 and still nearly won in Atlanta.  Joel Embiid had been dominant for three straight games before going 4-for-20 in Game 4, including 0-for-12 in the 2nd half.  He'll be much better at home in Game 5 and lead the 76ers to a win and cover.

Philadelphia had won Games 2 and 3 by 16 points each before their 3-point loss in Game 4.  The Hawks just don't have an answer for Embiid, and he opens everything up for everyone else to hit open shots.  This is just a tough team to tame offensively, and defensively they have been solid in holding the Hawks to 103, 111 and 102 points in the last three games despite playing at a fast tempo.

Atlanta is 5-18 ATS in its last 23 road games as an underdog of 6.5 to 12 points.  Philadelphia is 10-2 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite this season.  The 76ers are 11-2 ATS in home games off a loss this season.  Philadelphia is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 home games.  The 76ers are 33-8 SU at home this season.  Bet the 76ers Wednesday.

20* Bucks/Nets TNT No-Brainer on Milwaukee -4

The Milwaukee Bucks have a golden opportunity here to take control of this series with all the injuries to the Brooklyn Nets.  They came back from a 2-0 deficit and won Games 3 and 4 at home, and now I expect them to get the win and cover on the road here against the depleted Nets.

Brooklyn just isn't going to be the same dominant team it was during the regular season and early on in these playoffs when they had the Big 3 of Durant, Harden and Irving healthy.  Now they will be without both Harden and Irving for Game 5 Tuesday night after Irving suffered an ankle injury in Game 4.  Durant is one of the best players in the world, but the Nets just don't have much they can count on outside of him.

I'll back the team basketball of the Bucks, who have been able to get to the rim at will these past two games and should continue to do so tonight with tons of easy buckets.  The Nets' only chance here is to shoot great from 3-point range with a bunch of role players, but the looks won't be nearly as good without Harden and Irving facilitating, so I don't like their chances.

The crazy part is that Milwaukee has yet to shoot the ball to its potential, but it is coming in this series at some point.  They are just 36-of-135 (26.7%) from 3-point range in this series.  Milwaukee is 30-14-1 ATS in the last 45 meetings.  The Bucks are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 meetings in Brooklyn.  Bet the Bucks Tuesday.

20* Jazz/Clippers TNT No-Brainer on Los Angeles -4.5

The Los Angeles Clippers let the Utah Jazz off the hook in the first two games in this series. They put it all together in Game 3 and won 132-106. Now I look for them to even this series with a win and cover at home tonight.

The Jazz made a franchise record 20 3-pointers in Game 2. They came back and made 19 3-pointers in Game 3 and still lost by 26 points. That's a bad sign for them moving forward in this series. The Jazz miss Mike Conley a lot and will be without him again Monday night.

Utah is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 games after trailing its previous game by 15 points or more at halftime. The Jazz are 0-5 ATS in their last five games as underdogs. Los Angeles is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as a favorite. Bet the Clippers Monday.

20* Nets/Bucks ABC No-Brainer on Milwaukee +2.5

The Milwaukee Bucks won Game 3 86-83 despite shooting just 37.8% from the field and 6-of-31 (19.4%) from 3-point range. That was an incredible effort to gut out that win, and it gives them a ton of confidence heading into Game 4.

In fact, the Bucks have shot poorly all series, which is an aberration based on the fact that they were one of the best shooting teams in the NBA during the regular season. They went 8-of-27 (29.6%) from 3 in Game 2 and 6-of-30 (20%) from 3 in Game 1.

It's safe to say the Bucks are due to shoot to their potential in Game 4. And from a line value perspective, this is a 6-point adjustment from Game 3. They go from being 3.5-point favorites in Game 3 to 2.5-point underdogs in Game 4. There is a ton of value with the Bucks as home underdogs today.

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Brooklyn) - off a road cover where they lost SU as an underdog, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 34-11 (75.6%) ATS since 1996.

Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Brooklyn) - after beating the spread by 54 points or more total in their last 10 games against an opponent that went under the total by more than 24 points in their previous game are 25-6 (80.6%) ATS since 1996. Bet the Bucks Sunday.

25* NBA 2nd Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Clippers -4.5

The Los Angeles Clippers will be highly motivated for a victory in Game 3 tonight after losing the first two games of this series to the Jazz.  They blew a double-digit lead in Game 1 and lost by 3 points, then lost by 6 points in Game 2 as both games went to the wire.

It's amazing Game 2 went to the wire when you consider how well Utah shot the ball.  They shot 55.3% from the field and 20-of-39 (51.3%) from 3-point range and broke some franchise records in that category.

The Jazz won't shoot that well again as the Clippers are one of the better defensive teams in the NBA.  They will give a big effort in Game 3 at home this time around with their fans behind them.  And it should be enough to cover this 4.5-point spread.

The Jazz are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Utah is 0-4 ATS in its last four games as an underdog. The Clippers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as favorites. Bet the Clippers Saturday.

20* Suns/Nuggets ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 223.5

I cashed in the UNDER 223 in Game 2 by the narrowest of margins. But that was a dead nuts UNDER until the backups got in in the 4th quarter.

It was 52-42 Phoenix at halftime for 94 combined points. Then they went off for 127 points in the 2nd half, including 68 in the 4th quarter when the backups were in and there was no defense being played.

Game 3 is expected to be close with the Nuggets currently 1.5-point favorites. The defensive intensity should be high for four quarters, thus giving us an easy winner on the UNDER. 

The Suns are an elite defensive team and the Nuggets are struggling to find offense outside Nikola Jokic. And after two huge offensive performances by the Suns, I have to think the Nuggets will improve defensively in Game 3 with their season on the line at home.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 220 or higher (Phoenix) after four or more consecutive wins, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 51-19 (72.9%) over the last five seasons.

Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is 220 or higher (Phoenix) - a well rested team playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 37-12 (75.5%) over the last five seasons. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Nets/Bucks ESPN No-Brainer on Milwaukee -3

The season and pride is on the line for the Milwaukee Bucks tonight.  It's safe to say they will give their best effort of the season, and it should be good enough to get a win and cover and get back in this series against the Brooklyn Nets.

After losing by 8 points in Game 1, the Bucks were absolutely embarrassed with a 39-point loss in Game 2.  That's why their pride is on the line here, and they will be playing with a chip on their shoulder.  I also expect the Nets to take their foot off the gas after how easy Game 2 came for them.

The Nets aren't going to continue shooting this well all series.  They made 15-of-40 from 3-point range in Game 1 and an even better 21-of-42 in Game 2.  Conversely, the Bucks made 6-of-30 in Game 1 and 8-of-27 in Game 2.  

The Bucks are a much better shooting team than they've shown and should be better where they are comfortable at home, especially their role players.  They shoot 39.6% from 3 on the season while the Nets are at 38.3%, so it has been an aberration.  Plus, being without James Harden will catch up with the Nets sooner rather than later.

Milwaukee is 12-3 ATS after losing two of their last three games this season, coming back to win by 14.7 points per game.  The Nets are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games as playoff underdogs.  Milwaukee is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Bucks are 29-13-1 ATS in the last 43 meetings.  Bet the Bucks Thursday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Nuggets/Suns UNDER 223

The Phoenix Suns are a great UNDER team because they are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA and they play at a slow tempo.  I'll come back with the UNDER in Game 2 after Game 1 saw 227 combined points and went over the 222.5-point total.

The Suns had a great shooting game in Game 1 scoring 122 points and making 54.1% from the field.  I don't see that happening again here.  The Nuggets only scored 105 points but still shot a decent 46.7% from the field.  I don't foresee either team topping 110 points in Game 2 tonight.

Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is 220 or higher (Denver) a well rested team playing 4 or less games in 10 games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 36-12 (75%) over the last five seasons.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 220 or higher (Phoenix) - after four or more consecutive wins, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 50-19 (72.5%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* Hawks/76ers TNT ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia -6

The Atlanta Hawks jumped on the 76ers early and held on late for the upset win in Game 1.  I fully expect the 76ers to have their revenge, and it's a great sign moving forward for them that Embiid looks healthy after his big performance in Game 1.

The Hawks shot 51.2% from the field and 20-of-47 (42.6%) from 3-point range in Game 1.  They won't have that big of an offensive performance again, and they really don't have an answer fro Philadelphia defensively with so many weak defenders in their lineup.

Philadelphia is 10-2 ATS in home games following a loss this season.  It is coming back to win by 10.6 points per game on average in this spot.  The 76ers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss.  Philadelphia is 32-8 SU at home this season and 10-1 SU in its last 11 home games.  Roll with the 76ers Tuesday.

15* Nuggets/Suns TNT ANNIHILATOR on Phoenix -5

The Phoenix Suns just knocked off LeBron James and the Lakers with three striaght wins by 8, 30 and 13 points.  No team has been more impressive than them in these playoffs thus far.  And now they actually take a step down here against the Denver Nuggets.

The Nuggets were able to get by the Blazers without Jamal Murray and Will Barton.  But the Blazers don't play defense like the Suns, who have been one of the best defensive teams in the NBA this season.  Denver's offense will bog down in this series against the Suns, starting with Game 1 tonight.

The Nuggets are 0-4 ATS in their last four games playing on three or more days' rest.  The Suns are 37-14-1 ATS in their last 52 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Phoenix is 6-1 ATS in its last seven playoff games as a favorite.  Take the Suns in Game 1 Monday.

25* NBA Eastern Conference Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Milwaukee Bucks ML +100

The Milwaukee Bucks will bounce back with a victory in Game 2 after a poor shooting performance in Game 1.  They had gone 12-2 in their previous 14 games prior to that Game 1 defeat.

I have a hard time seeing Milwaukee shooting 6-of-30 (20%) from 3-point range again.  The Bucks are too good of a shooting team for that to happen, and I also like the fact that they won't have to deal with James Harden in Game 2.  He is out with a hamstring injury.

The Bucks are 29-12-1 ATS in their last 42 meetings with the Nets.  Milwaukee is 16-4-1 ATS in its last 21 trips to Brooklyn.  Bet the Bucks in Game 2 Monday.

20* Hawks/76ers ABC No-Brainer on Philadelphia -3.5

This line is set with the assumption that Joel Embiid isn't playing.  If he plays it would just be an added bonus.  But the 76ers have proven they can win without him all season, including their 129-112 win over the Washington Wizards in Game 5 last series.

The Atlanta Hawks are getting a lot of respect in Game 1 of this series after taking down the New York Knicks last series.  But the Knicks were a great regular season team because of their grittiness from night to night.  They weren't a great playoff team because they were seriously short on talent.

The 76ers have been one of the best home teams in the NBA over the last handful of seasons.  That was the case again this season as they are 32-7 SU & 24-14-1 ATS at home, including 10-0 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games.  That includes two home wins over the Hawks by 22 and 44 points during this stretch.  Bet the 76ers Sunday.

20* Bucks/Nets TNT No-Brainer on Milwaukee +4

The Milwaukee Bucks made a statement in the first round by sweeping the Miami Heat.  Not only did they win that series, they dominated it by outscoring the Heat by an average of 20.5 points per game in the four wins.

It's clear that the Bucks are more built for the playoffs this season than they were last year.  They added guys like Jrue Holiday, PJ Tucker and Brynn Forbes to make them a lot more versatile.  The upgrade from Eric Bledsoe to Holiday has been a massive one.

The Nets were also dominant in knocking off the Celtics in five games.  But that was a Boston team playing without one of its best players in Jaylen Brown for the entire series and another of its top players in Kemba Walker for a big portion of it.  I don't think you can put too much stock in their series win.

The Bucks went 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS against the Nets in their three meetings this season with their only loss coming by two points on the road.  And keep in mind they were favored in all three of those games, and now they are 4-point dogs in Game 1, so there is value with the Bucks here.  Milwaukee is 29-11-1 ATS in the last 41 meetings and 16-4-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings in Brooklyn.  Bet the Bucks Saturday.

20* Clippers/Mavericks ESPN No-Brainer on Los Angeles -2.5

The road team is now 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in this series.  It should be more of the same here with the Clippers staving off elimination in Game 6.  The Clippers have won their two meetings at Dallas by 10 and 25 points.  Los Angeles is now 8-2 in its last 10 road meetings with the Mavericks.

The Clippers are still the more complete team in this series despite being down.  They are way better than Dallas defensively, and they have more pieces that can help them win offensively with Kawhi and George leading the way.  The Mavericks are too reliant upon Luka Doncic for my liking, and he is still banged up.

The Clippers are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games after failing to cover five or six of their last seven games.  Dallas is 6-17 ATS in its last 23 home games off a road win.  Bet the Clippers Friday.

20* Nuggets/Blazers TNT No-Brainer on Portland -5

The Portland Trail Blazers will respond today and keep their season alive with a win and cover at home in Game 6.  They will get a much better performance from their role players at home than they did on the road at Denver in Game 5, wasting a huge game from Damian Lillard.

But remember that Lillard only had one field goal in Game 4 and the Blazers won going away 115-95.  Powell had 29 points, McCollum 21, Nurkic 17 and Anthony 12.  Role players just tend to play better at home where they are more comfortable.

Plays against road underdogs (Denver) - after going over the total by more than 30 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 25-4 (86.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Blazers Thursday.

15* Grizzlies/Jazz NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Memphis +9.5

All four games have gone down to the wire in this series despite that fact that the Jazz are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings.  All three games were decided by 12 points or less, and the last two the Jazz pulled away late in close games.

I think there's value with the Grizzlies, who have been an extremely resilient team this season and won't go down without a fight in Game 5.  Asking the Jazz to beat them by double-digits to cover this spread is simply asking too much.

The Grizzlies are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as road underdogs.  The Jazz are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games.  Memphis is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 trips to Salt Lake City.  Roll with the Grizzlies Wednesday.

20* Hawks/Knicks TNT No-Brainer on New York -1

The New York Knicks have yet to play up to their potential in this series.  I think we get the best out of them with their season on the line in Game 5 tonight at home.

The Knicks haven't shot better than 44.7% in any game this series, and they have shot 42% or worse in three straight games.  They played their two best games at home where they lost by 2 in Game 1 and came back and won by 9 in Game 2.  There is some real good energy in Madison Square Garden right now with the Knicks finally back in the playoffs.

New York is 26-6 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season, including 18-2 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3 this season.  The Hawks are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games.  New York is 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven games when playing on two days' rest.  Bet the Knicks Wednesday.

15* Wizards/76ers NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Washington +6

The Washington Wizards have some life now after winning Game 4 to stave off elimination.  This will be a dangerous team the rest this series, especially now that Joel Embiid is doubtful for the 76ers with a knee injury.  Philadelphia should not be a 6-point favorite over Washington without Embiid.

Embiid had 30 points in Game 1, 22 in Game 2 and 36 in Game 3.  He means everything to this team, and the game really flipped in Washington's favor when Embiid went out with that knee injury in the 2nd quarter in Game 4.  Now the 76ers will have to go small ball, which plays right into Washington's hands.  They didn't have an answer for Embiid inside, but now they don't have to worry about it.

The Wizards are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games overall.  Washington is 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 road games.  The Wizards are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as road underdogs.  Take the Wizards Wednesday.

20* Blazers/Nuggets NBA TV No-Brainer on Portland +2

The best Portland team is better than the best Denver team right now due to the Nuggets being without Murray and Barton.  And we've seen the best Portland team twice in this series in their 14-point win in Game 1 and their 20-point win in Game 4.  I expect we get the best Portland team in Game 5 tonight with this series in the balance.

The Nuggets just don't have much help outside Nikola Jokic and they are asking him to do too much.  While he is likely an MVP, he isn't good enough to carry a team like other superstars in this league.  Especially not without Murray, and we saw how huge Murray was for this team in the playoffs last year.

Portland is 11-3 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 this season.  Denver is 5-14 ATS when revenging a road loss this season.  The Blazers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games.  Portland is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Blazers Tuesday.

20* Jazz/Grizzlies TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Memphis +6

The Memphis Grizzlies have battled the Utah Jazz in all three games and have held their own.  Now they are in a must-win in Game 4 here at home to try and even this series as they head back to Salt Lake City for Game 5.

The Grizzlies actually took a late lead in Game 3 before closing cold from the field.  They wound up shooting just 43% overall and 31.7% from 3-point range, while the Jazz shot 49.4% overall and 44.2% from free throw range while attempting 13 more free throws than the Grizzlies.  

It was impressive to see the Grizzlies actually take a late lead despite those differences in Game 3.  If they can close the gap just a little, they will easily cover this 6-point spread and possibly win this thing outright.

The Grizzlies are 22-10 ATS in their last 32 games playing on one days' rest.  Memphis is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games as an underdog, including 5-1 ATS in its last six games as a home underdog.  The Grizzlies are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a double-digit home loss.  Bet the Grizzlies Monday.

20* Clippers/Mavs TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -3

The Los Angeles Clippers could have packed it in down 0-2 and down 19 points early in Game 3 to the Dallas Mavericks.  Instead, they showed tremendous resiliency and came back to win 118-108 behind huge games from Kawhi Leonard and Paul George.  Now they will be playing with unbelievable confidence in Game 4 tonight.

Conversely, the Mavericks might not react very well to blowing that huge lead.  And now they have to deal with an injury to their best player in Luka Doncic, who went into halftime with a shoulder injury and it was clearly still bothering him in the second half.  He played through it but wasn't nearly as effective.  At the very least he won't be 100% tonight, even though he's listed as questionable.

The road team has won all three meetings in this series and it will be more of the same tonight.  The Clippers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine trips to Dallas.  Bet the Clippers Sunday.

15* Suns/Lakers ABC ANNIHILATOR on Phoenix +6.5

There is a lot being made of the Chris Paul injury, but he's going to be fine.  The Lakers have injuries of their own that aren't getting publicized as much with both Anthony Davis (knee) and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (knee) both questionable for this one.

I fully expect the Suns to bounce back with a much better performance in Game 4 after losing the last two games in this series.  They shot just 42.7% in Game 3 and are a much better shooting team than they have shown thus far in this series.

Phoenix is 10-2 ATS when revenging a road loss this season.  Los Angeles is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 home games off a home win by 10 points or more.  The Suns are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games following an ATS loss.  Phoenix is 35-16-1 ATS in its last 52 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Lakers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games.  Roll with the Suns Sunday.

20* Knicks/Hawks ABC No-Brainer on New York +5

A 22-5 run to close the 1st half was the difference in the Hawks winning 105-94 over the Knicks in Game 3.  The Knicks will bounce back in Game 4 with a likely outright win to even this series, but we'll take the points for some insurance.

Everything went right for the Hawks in Game 3.  They shot 51.9% as a team and a ridiculous 16-of-27 (59.3%) from 3-point range.  That's not going to happen again.  Meanwhile, the Knicks shot just 36.2% as a team and 9-of-30 (30%) from 3-point range.  Yet they still only lost by 11 points.  Those percentages will narrow here in Game 4.

The Knicks are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games following a loss.  New York is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 road games.  The Knicks are 36-16-1 ATS in their last 53 games overall.  New York is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  The Knicks are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 meetings in Atlanta.  Take the Knicks Sunday.

20* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +6.5

The Washington Wizards are in must-win mode in Game 3 tonight as the series shifts to Washington.  The Wizards won't go away quietly as they showed tremendous resiliency down the stretch when their odds to miss the playoffs were like 99%.

Washington had a woeful shooting performance in Game 2, making just 40.2% from the field and 2-of-22 (9.1%) from 3-point range.  That won't happen again.  This happened against Boston in the play-in round and they bounced back with a 142-115 home win over Indiana to get into the playoffs.

The Wizards are 10-1 SU in their last 11 home games with their only loss coming by 3 points in overtime.  Philadelphia is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 road games following two or more consecutive home wins.  The Wizards are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss.  Washington is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine games following a SU loss.  The Wizards are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  Washington is 19-6-1 ATS in its last 26 games overall.  Take the Wizards Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers -4

This is a big bounce-back spot for the Portland Trail Blazers after losing the last two games in this series to fall behind 2-1.  This is essentially a must-win for them, and I fully expect them to play like it and be the team playing with more sense of urgency today.

I also don't expect the Nuggets to shoot as well as they did in Game 3.  They shot 20-of-38 (52.6%) from 3-point range while Portland shot just 14-of-45 (31.1%) from 3-point range.  Yet the Blazers only lost by 5.  Austin Rivers won't be as good as he was in Game 3 either as he single-handedly won the game for them down the stretch.

Denver is 21-38 ATS in its last 59 games following two or more consecutive wins.  Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Portland) - playing with double revenge off against an opponent that's off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog are 71-36 (66.4%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Blazers in Game 4 Saturday.

20* Clippers/Mavericks ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -2.5

The Dallas Mavericks shot 50% in Game 1 and made 17 3-pointers at a 47.2% clip.  The Mavericks followed it up with an even better performance in Game 2, shooting 58.5% from the field while making 18 3-pointers at a 52.9% clip.

I have to think the Mavericks will cool off partly due to regression, but also because the Clippers will make the proper adjustments to slow down Luka Doncic.  Whether that be Kawhi Leonard guarding him most the game or not, there will be adjustments made.

I really like the Clippers in this do-or-die situation to get a Game 3 victory and get back in this series.  Los Angeles is 33-20 ATS in its last 53 games following a loss.  The Clippers are 22-10 ATS in their last 32 road games when revenging a same-season loss.  Los Angeles is 6-2 ATS in its last eight trips to Dallas.

Plays on favorites (LA Clippers) - revenging a SU loss vs. opponent as a favorite of 7 points or more against an opponent that is off two consecutive upset wins as underdogs are 53-23 (69.7%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Clippers Friday.

15* Knicks/Hawks ESPN ANNIHILATOR on New York +5

This is too big of an adjustment.  The Knicks go from being 2-point favorites over the Hawks in Game 2 to 5-point underdogs in Game 3, a 7-point adjustment for home-court advantage.  This despite the fact that the Knicks have owned the Hawks this season.

Indeed, the Knicks are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with the Hawks with their only loss coming on a buzzer-beater in Game 1 by two points.  The Knicks are the team I trust more in this series because they play great defense and never quit.  The Hawks are the more flashy team that gets the attention of the betting public.

But the Knicks have been underrated all season, so that's nothing new.  They have gone 46-27-1 ATS in all games this season.  New York is 36-15-1 ATS in its last 52 games overall.  The Knicks are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games, and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as road underdogs.  There will be more New York fans here than most realize and it won't be that big of a home-court advantage for the Hawks.  Take the Knicks Friday.

20* Nuggets/Blazers NBA TV No-Brainer on Portland -3.5

After the Blazers won by 14 in Game 1 over the Nuggets they came out flat in Game 2.  The Nuggets took advantage and played a great game.  The Blazers didn't get any help outside Damian Lillard as the role players just seemed to take the night off.

Now the Blazers are at home for Game 3 and we should see their best effort.  That will be good enough to cover this 3.5-point spread as the Blazers get back to playing like they were prior to Game 2.  Portland went 11-2 SU & 10-3 ATS in its previous 13 games.

Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Portland) - revenging a loss by more than 10 points, a rested team playing only their 2nd game in 5 days are 72-38 (65.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Nuggets are 1-5 ATS in their last six games playing on two days' rest.  Portland is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Blazers Thursday.

15* Suns/Lakers TNT ANNIHILATOR on Phoenix +7.5

The Suns were 2.5-point favorites over the Lakers in Game 1.  Now they are 7.5-point underdogs in Game 3, which is a 10-point adjustment and simply too much.  The value is with the Suns in Game 3 tonight.

After beating the Lakers 99-90 in Game 1, the Suns gave the Lakers all they wanted in Game 2.  The Lakers needed a big finish to win that game 109-102 after relinquishing the lead late.  So the Suns have taken the Lakers' best punch and know they can play with them now.

Phoenix is now 3-2 SU in its last five meetings with Los Angeles with only one loss by more than 7 points.  This game should go right down to the wire, and I like that Chris Paul has been upgraded to probable and should be feeling even better in Game 3 than he did in Game 2.

Phoenix is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games following a SU loss.  The Suns are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 games following an ATS loss.  Phoenix is 35-15-1 ATS in its last 51 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Lakers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games.  Los Angeles is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following an ATS win.  Take the Suns Thursday.

20* Hawks/Knicks TNT No-Brainer on New York -2

The New York Knicks had won all three meetings with the Hawks in the regular season before losing on a last-second shot by Trae Young in Game 1.  Look for the Knicks to get back to their dominance of the Hawks here and bounce back with a Game 2 victory at home.

The Knicks are 17-2 ATS at home with a line of +3 to -3 this season.  The Hawks are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.  New York is 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  The Knicks are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games playing on two days' rest.  New York is 35-15-1 ATS in its last 51 games overall.  Take the Knicks Wednesday.

25* NBA 1st Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Washington Wizards +8

The Washington Wizards are one of the most dangerous No. 8 seeds I've ever seen with how well they have been playing since getting both Russell Westbrook and Bradley Beal healthy.  They should not be catching 8 points in Game 2 to the Philadelphia 76ers, who have yet to prove themselves in the playoffs.

The Wizards are 16-7 SU in their last 23 games overall with five losses by 4 points or less and six of the seven losses by 7 points or fewer.  That means they are 22-1 ATS with a line of +7.5 or higher in their last 23 games.  The only exception was their loss to the Celtics in the play-in game in which they shot just 3-of-21 from 3-point range.

The 76ers are overvalued in the playoffs due to having the best record in the Eastern Conference and the No. 1 seed.  Yes, the 76ers have won all four meetings with the Wizards this season, but three of those wins came by 7 points or less.  I think we are getting tremendous value on the more motivated team here in Washington looking to bounce back from a Game 1 loss and playing with quadruple revenge.

Washington is 24-10 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  The Wizards are 12-3 ATS as road underdogs of 6.5 to 12 points this season.  Washington is 9-1 ATS when playing with triple revenge this season.  The Wizards are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 road games.  Washington is 7-0-1 ATS in its last eight games following a SU loss.  The Wizards are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  The 76ers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games when playing on two days' rest.  Bet the Wizards Wednesday.

20* Mavs/Clippers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 216

The Mavericks and Clippers just tend to play in low-scoring games.  The UNDER is 5-0 in the last five meetings with combined scores of 216 or less in all five games.  They have averaged just 204.6 combined points per game in those five meetings, so we are getting over 11 points of value here with this UNDER 216.

They combined for 216 points in Game 1, but it was a very low possession game with the Mavericks attempting only 76 shots and the Clippers 84.  The Mavericks shot 50% from the field and 17-of-36 (47.2%) from 3-point range as well, and they aren't going to shoot that well again.

Dallas is 11-1 UNDER when playing four or less games in 10 days this season.  The Mavericks are 20-5 UNDER as underdogs this season.  The Clippers are 15-4 UNDER in their last 19 games when revenging a home loss by 10 points or more.  Dallas is 9-0 UNDER vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 39% or better this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* Lakers/Suns TNT ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -1.5

The reigning NBA champs will show some resiliency tonight after losing Game 1 to the Suns, 90-99.  Look for them to bounce back with a win in Game 2 tonight to even this series.

There were going to be chemistry issues for a few games with the injuries to both Lebron and AD down the stretch.  But now they are both back healthy and the chemistry should get better with each passing game.  And keep in mind they were developing some chemistry going into the playoffs as they had won six straight games prior to that defeat.

The Lakers are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a SU loss.  Los Angeles is 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight games as a road favorite.  The Suns are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win.  Take the Lakers Tuesday.

20* Blazers/Nuggets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland ML +109

The Portland Trail Blazers played as well as anyone down the stretch once they got healthy and formed some chemistry.  The Blazers went 11-2 in their last 13 games overall after winning Game 1 by a final of 123-109 on the road.  The Nuggets shot 50.5% as a team and still lost by 14 points.

I just don't trust the Nuggets considering they are going to be without Jamal Murray for the rest of the playoffs.  And they will also be without key role player Will Barton, who is battling a hamstring injury.  They are relying way too much in Nikola Jokic moving forward.  He had a big Game 1 and it still wasn't nearly enough.

Portland is 11-2 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 this season.  The Blazers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Portland is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games.  The Blazers are 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings as this has been a terrible matchup for the Nuggets.  Bet the Blazers on the Money Line Monday.

20* Grizzlies/Jazz TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Memphis +9

The Memphis Grizzlies will go into the playoffs with a ton of confidence after gutting out two narrow victories over the Spurs and Warriors with their season on the line in the play-in round.  They are as dangerous as any team in the field right now because of it.

Memphis has saved its best basketball for last.  The Grizzlies are 7-1 SU in their last eight games overall with their only loss coming to those same Warriors on the road in the regular season finale.  They are as healthy as they have been all season, and as a result they should not be 9-point underdogs to the Utah Jazz in Game 1 of this series.

This line is inflated due to the Jazz having the best record in the Western Conference and earning the No. 1 seed.  They were a great regular season team, but this is the playoffs now, and we saw them struggle last year.  It's also inflated because Donovan Mitchell is making his much-anticipated return.  But it's going to take a game or two for him to shake off the rust, and for the team to get used to playing with him again.

Plays on road underdogs (Memphis) - playing with triple revenge while also off an upset win as a road underdog are 48-21 (69.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The line is also inflated due to Utah winning all three meetings with Memphis this season, but two of those came by 4 points or less.  The Grizzlies are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as underdogs.  The Jazz are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games.  Bet the Grizzlies Sunday.

20* Wizards/76ers TNT Early ANNIHILATOR on Washington +8

The Washington Wizards are one of the most dangerous No. 8 seeds I've ever seen with how well they have been playing since getting both Russell Westbrook and Bradley Beal healthy.  They should not be catching 8 points to the Philadelphia 76ers, who have yet to prove themselves in the playoffs.

The Wizards are 16-6 SU in their last 22 games overall with five losses by 4 points or less.  That means they are 21-1 ATS with a line of +4.5 or higher in their last 22 games.  The only exception was their loss to the Celtics in the play-in game in which they shot just 3-of-21 from 3-point range.  But they bounced back with a dominant 142-115 win over Indiana to get into the playoffs.

This line is inflated due to the 76ers having the best record in the Eastern Conference and earning the No. 1 seed.  It is also inflated due to the 76ers winning all three meetings with the Wizards this season, but two of those came by 6 points or less.

Washington is 8-1 ATS in road games when playing with triple revenge this season.  The WIzards are 11-2 ATS after a win by 10 points or more this season.  Philadelphia is 8-24 ATS in its last 32 games after two or more consecutive home wins.  The Wizards are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 road games.  Washington is 5-0 ATS in its last five games as a road underdog.  Take the Wizards Sunday.

20* Blazers/Nuggets ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland +1

The Portland Trail Blazers played as well as anyone down the stretch once they got healthy and formed some chemistry.  The Blazers went 10-2 in their last 12 games overall.  I like them to win this series, and I'm taking them in Game 1 tonight.

I just don't trust the Nuggets considering they are going to be without Jamal Murray for the rest of the playoffs.  And they will also be without key role player Will Barton, who is battling a hamstring injury.  They are relying way too much in Nikola Jokic moving forward.

Portland is 10-2 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 this season.  Denver is 5-13 ATS when revenging a road loss this season.  The Blazers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Portland is 7-1 ATS in its last eight road games.  The Blazers are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet the Blazers Saturday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Celtics/Nets OVER 228.5

The Brooklyn Nets are finally healthy entering the playoffs for basically the first time this season.  Despite all their injuries this season, they still led the NBA in offensive efficiency, and they will be even better in the playoffs on that end now that they have everyone healthy.

The problem with the Nets is that while they can score at will, they just don't defense.  Brooklyn ranks 21st in defensive efficiency this season.  Boston ranks right in the middle of the pack in defensive efficiency and will certainly be worse off on that end without one of their best defenders in Jaylen Brown for the remainder of the season.

The OVER is 4-1 in Celtics last five games when playing on three or more days' rest.  The OVER is 7-2 in Nets last nine games as home favorites.  Brooklyn is 32-19 OVER as a favorite this season.  Take the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Grizzlies/Warriors ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 221.5

The UNDER makes sense in these winner-take-all games.  The pressure is high and the defensive intensity is even higher with their seasons on the line.  That pressure sometimes affects shooting as well on offense, and these games tend to be played a lot more in the half court than out in transition like the regular season.

The Warriors have been an underrated defensive team all season.  They rank 5th in the NBA in defensive efficiency.  The Grizzlies have been an underrated defensive team as well.  They rank 6th in the NBA in defensive efficiency.  The Warriors just lost to the Lakers 100-103 for 203 combined points, while the Grizzlies just beat the Spurs 100-96 for 196 combined points.

The UNDER is 6-0 in the last six meetings in this series with combined scores of 219 or fewer points five times.  All three meetings this season saw 219 or fewer combined points.  The Grizzlies and Warriors are averaging just 215.3 combined points in those six meetings, so we are getting some nice value on this UNDER, especially given the situation.

The UNDER is 6-1 in Grizzlies last seven games overall.  The UNDER is 19-7 in Warriors last 26 vs.  a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 20-7 in the last 27 meetings.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Golden State.  The UNDER is 8-0 in Warriors last eight games off a close road loss by 3 points or less.  The UNDER is 13-1 in Grizzlies last 14 road games when revenging a road loss by 10 points or more.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Pacers/Wizards TNT No-Brainer on Washington -3

The Indiana Pacers are overvalued off their 144-117 blowout win over the inexperienced Charlotte Hornets.  The Pacers shot 55% as a team and 16-of-35 (46%) from 3-point range to pull away.  They overcame being without Turner, Warren, LeVert and Lamb, but they won't overcome it against the Wizards.

Washington is undervalued after a blowout 100-118 loss to the Boston Celtics.  The Wizards shot 43% as a team and a woeful 3-of-21 (14%) from 3-point range.  They aren't going to shoot that poorly again, especially since they are back home now where they are comfortable and will have an advantage.

Washington went 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS against Indiana this season with wins by 11 and 8 at home and a 1-point win on the road.  That dominance should continue here as they pull off the season sweep of the Pacers.

Indiana is 1-9 ATS after allowing 110 points or more in four straight games this season.  The Pacers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win by more than 10 points.  The Wizards are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games following a SU loss.  Washington is 5-0 ATS in its last five games following an ATS loss.  Bet the Wizards Thursday.

20* Warriors/Lakers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 219.5

The Los Angeles Lakers finished 1st in the NBA in defensive efficiency this season.  This despite being without both LeBron James and Anthony Davis for big stretches.  They were even better when both were playing, and they will be a force defensively in the playoffs.

Most look at the Warriors as just an offensive team with Stephen Curry.  But that has been far from the case.  In fact, they have had to cover up for their offensive woes outside of Curry by playing stellar defense.  Indeed, the Warriors rank 5th in the NBA in defensive efficiency this season.

Los Angeles is 16-4 UNDER In its last 20 games as a home favorite of 6 points or less.  The Lakers are 23-8 UNDER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  Golden State is 8-1 UNDER in its last nine road games when revenging a same-season loss.  The UNDER is 19-7 in Warriors last 26 road games.  The UNDER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Wizards/Celtics TNT No-Brainer on Washington +2.5

Few teams are playing better than the Washington Wizards entering the playoffs.  They have gone 15-5 SU in their last 20 games overall with all five losses by 4 points or less.  So they have been competitive in each of their last 20 games with a chance to win in the closing seconds.  The Wizards are also 19-5-1 ATS in their last 25 games overall.

Few teams are playing worse than the Boston Celtics entering the playoffs.  Boston is 4-9 SU & 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games overall.  They have been banged up down the stretch with the key loss being Jaylen Brown (24.7 PPG, 6.0 RPG), who is out for the season.  He is easily their second-best player behind Jayson Tatum.  Brown averaged 26 points and 10 rebounds against Washington this this season, so his loss is a huge one.

The Wizards are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 road games.  Washington is 5-0 ATS in its last five games following an ATS loss.  The Wizards are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as underdogs.  Boston is 0-8 ATS in its last eight game splaying on one days' rest.  The Celtics are 9-19-1 ATS in their last 29 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Wizards Tuesday.

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Phoenix Suns -9.5

The Phoenix Suns are still playing to try to earn the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference. They can get the top spot with a win Sunday coupled with a loss by the Utah Jazz to the Sacramento Kings. The Suns play before the Jazz today so they will be max motivated not knowing the result of the other game.

Phoenix blasted San Antonio 140-103 yesterday. It should be more of the same in the rematch. The Spurs don't have anything to play for as they are locked into the 10th seed. They may once again opt to rest players, as they did with DeMar DeRozan, Rudy Gay, Dejounte Murray and Jakob Poetl on Saturday. Bet the Suns Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Early ANNIHILATOR on Washington Wizards -6

This game between the Washington Wizards and Charlotte Hornets will decide who gets the 8th seed in the East. That's big because the 7th and 8th seed can lose their play-in game and still get another chance to win against the 9th or 10th seed winner.

The Wizards are in the more favorable spot here as they had Saturday off and will be rested and ready to go. They could also get Bradley Beal back in the lineup. Meanwhile, the Hornets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after an overtime loss to the Knicks yesterday.

It will also be the 10th game in 16 days for the Hornets. Rozier played 45 minutes, Grham 40, McDaniels 39, Zeller 36 and Bridges 34 yesterday. They simply won't have much left in the tank for the Wizards, who are playing as well as almost anyone in the NBA here down the stretch.

Washington is 20-7-1 ATS in its last 28 games overall. The Hornets are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games. Charlotte is 16-40 ATS in its last 56 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Washington is 18-4 ATS in its last 22 games playing on one days' rest. The Wizards are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a win by more than 10 points. Take the Wizards Sunday.

15* Heat/Bucks NBA BAILOUT on Milwaukee +4.5

The Milwaukee Bucks still have something to play for as they trail the Brooklyn Nets by one game for 2nd place in the Eastern Conference. That is big because these teams are likely to play each other in the second round of the playoffs.

The Bucks have been playing with a sense of urgency to get that No. 2 seed. They are 6-1 SU in their last seven games overall. Now they are catching 4.5 points at home to the Miami Heat, which I'm absolutely shocked by.

It's time to 'sell high' on the Heat, who are 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall including four straight wins and covers coming in. But now the Heat are getting too much respect from the books as road favorites here.

Milwaukee is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Miami is 8-17 ATS in its last 25 games following a win by more than 10 points. Take the Bucks Saturday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Chicago Bulls +11.5

The Chicago Bulls have been playing some of their best basketball of the season here down the stretch since both Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic returned to the lineup. They have gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with all four wins by double-digits.

The lone loss during this stretch came at home to the Brooklyn Nets as 4-point underdogs. Now the Bulls are 11.5-point dogs in their rematch with the Nets and will be the more motivated team for revenge. This is way too big of a line adjustment and there's clearly value with the Bulls.

Chicago is 22-13 ATS in all road games this season. The Bulls are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 road games after covering four of their last five ATS. Bet the Bulls Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Rockets +12

The Houston Rockets have already clinched the worst record in the NBA. They have been playing freely here down the stretch and have given some contenders some good battles.

Indeed, the Rockets are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with an 8-point loss at Milwaukee as 17.5-point dogs, an 8-point loss at Utah as 16-point dogs, an 11-point loss at Portland as 14.5-point dogs and a 2-point loss at the Lakers as 9-point dogs.

Now they take on a Clippers team that is in a bad spot tonight. While the Rockets come in on one days' rest, the Clippers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd road game in 4 days. They had to travel from Charlotte to Houston overnight.

The Clippers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall. Los Angeles is 1-4 ATS in its last five road games. Houston is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. Take the Rockets Friday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies -5.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are still playing for seeding as they are tied with the Warriors for the 8th seed but lose the tiebreaker. There's a big difference between being the 8th or 9th seed in the West, so they will continue to try and get that 8th spot.

The Grizzlies have been playing with a sense of urgency for several games now and are 4-0 SU in their last four games overall. That includes their 116-110 win over the Kings last night. And now they play the Kings again tonight and should win by 6-plus points again to cover this 5.5-point spread.

While the Grizzlies are nearly fully healthy and can handle this back-to-back spot well, the Kings are short-handed right now which will make the spot tougher for them. They are without Fox and Haliburton, and they could be without Barnes, Holmes and Bagley III, who are all questionable.

Memphis is 21-10 ATS in its last 31 games overall. The Grizzlies are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 home games. Memphis is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 home meetings with Sacramento. Bet the Grizzlies Friday.

25* NBA GAME OF THE YEAR on Minnesota Timberwolves +6

The Minnesota Timberwolves have quietly gone 7-4 SU & 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Three of those four losses came by 4 points or less, so they are 10-1 ATS if the line were +4.5 or higher in their last 11 games.  Now they are catching 6 points against the short-handed Nuggets.

Minnesota is rolling offensively right now.  The Timberwolves have scored 112 or more points in seven straight games.  They have scored 126 or more points in five of those seven games.  The trio of Towns, Russell and Edwards is really gelling right now down the stretch.

Denver remains without Jamal Murray, Will Barton and PJ Dozier and could be without Monte Morris.  The Nuggets have won just one of their last six games by more than 6 points, so they are 1-5 ATS in their last six games with a line of -6.5 or higher.  The Nuggets are now just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games overall and have been grossly overvalued without Murray.

The Nuggets are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.  The Timberwolves are 6-1 ATS in their last seven Thursday games.  Minnesota is 5-2 ATS in its last seven meetings with Denver.  Bet the Timberwolves Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +12.5

This is a tough spot for the Atlanta Hawks tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after two straight narrow wins in shootouts over the Washington Wizards.  This is clearly a letdown spot for the Hawks now, and they won't have much left in the tank for the Magic tonight.

Orlando shows some pride last time out and covered as 15.5-point underdogs at Milwaukee.  Now the Magic come in rested after having yesterday off and catching a whopping 12.5 points to the Hawks tonight.

The Magic also want revenge after losing each of their first two meetings with the Hawks this season, including a 96-112 road loss on April 20th about three weeks ago.  That was a rare blowout win for the Hawks in this series.  

Atlanta is 1-14 ATS in its last 15 meetings with Orlando if the line were -12.5 with just one win by double-digits.  The Hawks are 1-4 ATS in their last five games playing on zero rest.  Take the Magic Thursday.

15* Blazers/Jazz ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Portland +2.5

The Portland Trail Blazers are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 8-1 SU in their last nine games overall with seven wins by double-digits against some pretty good competition.  Their only loss came on the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th road game in 7 days at Atlanta.

The Blazers have scored 113 or more points in 10 of their last 11 games overall as they are hitting on all cylinders offensively.  The Jazz will be able to keep pace, but they won't be able to get the win in the end without Donovan Mitchell and Mike Conley Jr.  The Blazers are simply the better team right now with the guys they have healthy and on the floor compared to the Jazz.

The Blazers are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.  Portland is 5-1 ATS in its last six games following an ATS loss.  The Blazers are 24-7 ATS in their last 31 Wednesday games.  Roll with the Blazers Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Blazers/Jazz OVER 234

The Blazers are an OVER bettors' dream right now.  They have scored 113 or more points in 10 of their last 11 games overall, including 124 or more eight of those games.  The Utah Jazz will be happy to oblige and play in a shootout with them.

The OVER is 4-0 in Jazz last four games overall with combined scores of 235, 240 and 247 points in their last three games.  They are still able to score without Donovan Mitchell and Mike Conley Jr, though their defense has taken a hit as they have allowed 116 or more in three straight.

The OVER is 35-17 in Blazers last 52 road games.  The OVER is 4-0 in Jazz last four games as a favorite.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Washington Wizards +6.5

I cashed in the Wizards +8.5 in their first meeting with the Hawks on Monday in a 124-125 loss.  I stated that this line would be closer to a pick 'em with Bradley Beal, and that the line was adjusted too much for his absence.  It's still adjusted too much today.

The Wizards come back as 6.5-point underdogs in the rematch.  They will be the more motivated team for revenge and with a lot to play for trying to clinch a playoff spot and move up in the play-in standings.  

Washington is now 15-6 SU in its last 21 games overall with amazingly 5 of those losses coming by 3 points or less.  So they are 20-1 ATS in their last 21 games with a line of +3.5 or higher.  Enough said.  Roll with the Wizards Wednesday.

15* Knicks/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 214.5

The New York Knicks and Los Angeles Lakers are both UNDER teams.  The Knicks rank 30th in pace this season at 98.4 possessions per game.  But they are 4th in defensive efficiency, so they play slow and stop their opponents, which is why they are so improved.  The Lakers are 1st in the NBA in defensive efficiency this season despite all their injuries.

The recent head-to-head history in this series definitely favors this UNDER 214.5 as well.  The Lakers and Knicks have combined for 207, 192 and 204 points in their last three meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 201 combined points per game.  So we are getting 13.5 points of value on the UNDER based on that average tonight.

The UNDER is 14-6 in Lakers last 20 games as a favorite.  The UNDER is 9-4 in Lakers last 13 home games.  The Lakers are 15-4 UNDER in their last 19 games as a home favorite of 6 points or less.  Los Angeles is 22-6 UNDER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  New York is 9-1 UNDER after a win by 6 points or less this season.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +5

Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic returned three games ago just in time for the Bulls to make one final playoff push.  They have put together their best three-game stretch of the entire season and are ready to take down the Brooklyn Nets tonight.  The Bulls are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with a 21-point win at Charlotte, a 22-point home win over Boston and a 12-point road win at Detroit.

Meanwhile, the Brooklyn Nets are struggling here down the stretch.  They are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall with their lone win coming after erasing a double-digit deficit to beat the short-handed Nuggets.

The Bulls upset the Nets 115-107 at home in their lone meeting this season.  Brooklyn is 2-10 ATS when revenging a loss as a favorite this season.  The Bulls are 6-0 ATS in their last six Tuesday games.  Take the Bulls Tuesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Dallas Mavericks -2

The Dallas Mavericks would be the 5th seed in the West if they win out.  That would be huge because they would then likely take on the Denver Nuggets, who are without Jamaal Murray and the easiest target of the Top 4 contenders.

The Mavericks have been fighting hard here down the stretch for weeks.  They are 10-2 SU in their last 12 games overall with wins over the likes of the Heat, Nets, Warriors and Lakers (twice).  Now they are in the preferred spot here as they had yesterday off and are rested and ready to go.

Meanwhile, the Memphis Grizzlies will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after barely surviving in a 115-110 victory over the Pelicans last night, who were missing Brandon Ingram, Zion Williamson and Steven Adams.  The Grizzlies will now be playing their 5th game in 7 days, their 8th game in 12 days and their 11th game in 17 days.  They haven't had two days off in a row since the All-Star Break.

The Mavericks are 3-0 SU in their last three meetings with the Grizzlies winning those three games by a combined 36 points.  Dallas is 8-1 ATS in road games off a road win this season.  The Mavericks are 26-12 ATS in their last 38 games as road favorites.  The Grizzlies are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a SU win.  Bet the Mavericks Tuesday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers -14.5

The Portland Trail Blazers are playing their best basketball of the season right now as they try and earn a Top 6 seed in the Western Conference so they avoid the play-in round.  They are one game ahead of the Lakers for that 6th spot and will be highly motivated to finish the season strong because of it.

The Blazers are 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall with their only loss coming on the road in the 2nd of a back-to-back situation at Atlanta where they were also playing their 5th road game in 7 days.  Six of the seven wins came by double-digits, and the seven wins came by an average of 19.1 points per game.

Now they take on the Houston Rockets, who might be the worst team in the NBA right now if it's not the Oklahoma City Thunder.  The Rockets are 5-42 SU & 14-33 ATS in their last 47 games overall.  Now they will be playing their 3rd road game in 4 days and are playing short-handed without Wall, Gordon, Bradley, Wilson, Porter Jr. and Brown.  Christian Wood and Kelly Olynyk are both questionable tonight.

The Rockets are 15-41 ATS in their last 56 games playing on one days' rest.  The Blazers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a losing record.  Portland is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home meetings with Houston.  Bet the Blazers Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +8.5

The Washington Wizards are 15-4 SU in their last 19 games overall with three losses coming by 3 points or less.  So they are 18-1 ATS in their last 19 games if they were a +3.5 dog or higher.  And now they are catching 8.5 points against the Atlanta Hawks tonight.

There should be an adjustment for Bradley Beal being out, but it should not be this big.  If he was playing this line would be much closer to a pick 'em.  He's not worth this many points even thought he has been tremendous for them.  For one game at least, Russell Westbrook can rally the troops and keep the Wizards competitive tonight.

The Wizards are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games overall.  Washington is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight road games.  The Wizards are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as underdogs.  Washington is 5-0 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the Wizards Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Timberwolves/Magic OVER 228.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves have been an OVER bettors' dream here down the stretch.  They are 4-0 OVER In their last four games overall with combined scores of 240, 276, 274 and 233 points.  

The Timberwolves have scored 112 or more points in 13 of their last 18 games overall, and they have allowed 111 or more points in 13 of their last 16 games overall.  What makes them such a great OVER team is that they rank 3rd in the NBA in pace this season and 28th in defensive efficiency.

The Magic have also been a great OVER bet here down the stretch.  Indeed, the Magic are 12-2 OVER in their last 14 games overall.  That includes combined scores of 231 against Detroit, 228 against Boston and 234 against Charlotte in their last three games overall.  

The Magic are playing at a lot faster tempo since trading away three of their best players, and their defense has taken a huge hit as they have allowed 110 or more points in 17 of their last 20 games overall.  They have fallen all the way to 24th in defensive efficiency.

Orlando is 11-1 OVER in its last 12 games vs. a bad team that wins 25% to 40% of their games in the second half of the season.  The OVER is 7-0 in Timberwolves last seven games following an ATS loss.  The OVER is 7-0 in Magic last seven home games.  Neither team has anything to play for right now so don't expect much defense to be played in this one.  The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Orlando.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Thunder/Warriors UNDER 224

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  And I love taking the UNDER in the second games of these double-header situations.  The Thunder and Warriors just played on Thursday and will play again here Saturday, so they are very familiar with one another.

The Warriors won that first meeting 118-97 for just 215 combined points.  Now we have a 224-point total for the rematch, which is too high.  It was a low possession game and should be another low-possession game in the rematch.  Neither team attempted more than 88 shots in that first meeting.

The Warriors are missing a key scorer in Kelly Oubre Jr. and have had to rely more on defense here down the stretch of the regular season.  The Thunder have had a hard time scoring as they are missing Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (23.7 PPG), Aleksej Pokusevski (7.5 PPG) and Mike Muscala (9.7 PPG).  They could also be without Luguentz Dort (14.0 PPG), who suffered a knee injury Thursday and is questionable.

Golden State is 12-1 UNDER in its last 13 games after covering three of its last four ATS.  The UNDER is 57-25-1 in Thunder last 83 games as road underdogs.  The UNDER is 14-4 in Thunder last 18 road games.  The UNDER is 20-6 in the last 26 meetings.  The UNDER is 14-2 in the last 16 meetings in Golden State.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers -5

The Portland Trail Blazers are surging right now in going 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Their only loss came on the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 9th game in 14 days at Atlanta.  Their six wins have come by an average of 18.7 points per game as they are playing their best basketball of the season.

Both the Blazers and Spurs will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back tonight.  The difference is that the Blazers don't have to travel as they get to stay home after beating the Lakers last night.  Meanwhile, the Spurs have to travel after beating the Kings in Sacramento last night.

This is already a very tired Spurs team as almost nobody has played a tougher schedule rest-wise since the All-Star Break.  In fact, they haven't had two days off in a row since the All-Star Break in early March.  It's no wonder the Spurs are just 1-5 SU in their last six games and 10-18 SU in their last 28 games overall.  They'll be playing in their 8th different city in their last nine games as well so there has been a ton of travel involved.

The Blazers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a losing record.  Portland is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Blazers Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Pacers OVER 247.5

Washington and Indiana two of the best OVER teams in the NBA here of late.  The OVER is 7-2 in Wizards last nine games overall.  The OVER is 11-4 in Pacers last 15 games overall.  The last four Washington games have seen 249 or more combined points.  Six of the last seven Indiana games have seen 243 or more combined points.

One of those games was a 154-141 win by the Wizards over the Pacers on May 3rd at the end of regulation for 295 combined points.  Now these teams meet again here less than a week later and we need the OVER 247.5, which gives us 47 points to work with based off that first meeting.

That game was played at a rapid pace as the Wizards got 103 shots up while the Pacers got 107 shots up, which is an insane volume.  It should be more of the same here  and you have to like the fact that they only combined to make 23 3-pointers in that first meeting.  Both teams were getting to the rim at will in that first meeting and both teams are playing small ball right now with zero rim protection.  Roll with the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +10.5

The Philadelphia 76ers are overvalued right now after winning seven straight games with five blowout wins among them.  It's time to 'sell high' on the 76ers in what will be a very tough spot for them tonight.

The 76ers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  It will also be the 11th game in 18 days.  They were in a dog fight with the Pelicans last night in a 109-107 victory, which forced their starters to play big minutes.  All five starters played more than 31 minutes last night and they could choose to rest some of them.

Detroit had yesterday off and will be the fresher team.  The Pistons have remained competitive here down the stretch only losing one of their last six games by more than 10 points.  They followed up a 3-point loss to the Hornets with an upset win over the Grizzlies by 14 points as 9-point dogs in their last two games coming in.

The Pistons are 1-1 SU & 2-0 ATS against the 76ers in two meetings this season.  They lost by 4 as 8.5-point home dogs and pulled the upset by 15 points as 5-point home dogs in their most recent meetings.  Philadelphia is 6-19 ATS in its last 25 games following four or more consecutive wins.  Detroit is 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet the Pistons Saturday.

20* Lakers/Blazers ESPN No-Brainer on Portland -8

The Portland Trail Blazers are surging right now and living up to their potential at the end of the season.  They are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last five games overall with all five wins coming by double-digits and by an average of 21.4 points per game.  It wasn't against soft competition either with all five wins coming on the road against the Pacers, Grizzlies, Nets, Celtics & Cavs.  Their only loss was in the 2nd of a back-to-back situation at Atlanta.

Now the Blazers take on the reeling Los Angeles Lakers who just can't catch a break in the health department.  The Lakers are 2-7 SU & 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall.  They are back to being without LeBron James and Dennis Shroeder.

Anthony Davis had to leave last night's game with a back injury and is questionable to play tonight.  The Lakers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 6 days here.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Blazers, and they definitely don't have enough talented bodies to be able to stay with them with the way they are playing right now.

The Lakers are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.  The Blazers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as favorites.  Take the Blazers Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -16.5

The Milwaukee Bucks are surging right now in going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with wins over the Nets (twice), Wizards and Bulls.  They are now just 0.5 games behind the Nets for 2nd place in the East and it is big for them to get home-court advantage because they will likely meet up in the 2nd round.

That's why I'm not concerned about the Bucks taking the Rockets lightly tonight.  Plus, the Rockets don't have enough talented bodies on the floor right now to even be competitive against Milwaukee's B-squad.  The thing is the Bucks are fully healthy right now and not expected to sit anyone with what's at stake with the regular season coming to an end soon.

The Rockets are without Wall, Gordon, Bradley, Wilson, House, Brown and Porter Jr.  Plus Wood, Olynyk and Augustin are all questionable.  It's no wonder the Rockets are just 5-40 SU & 12-33 ATS in their last 45 games overall.  That includes three straight blowout losses to the Warriors by 26, the Knicks by 25 and the 76ers by 20.  It should be more of the same tonight against the Bucks.

Houston is 1-10 ATS following three straight losses by 10 points or more this season.  The Rockets are 14-41 ATS in their last 55 games playing on one days' rest.  Milwaukee is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games.  Another reason the Bucks won't take the Rockets lightly is because they just lost to them on April 29th just over a week ago, so they will be out for revenge as well.  Roll with the Bucks Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Timberwolves/Heat OVER 225

The Minnesota Timberwolves are a great OVER team, especially of late.  They have scored 113 or more points in 12 of their last 17 games overall.  They have allowed 114 or more points in 11 of their last 15 games overall.  Minnesota ranks 4th in pace this season and 28th in defensive efficiency.

The Miami Heat have been a great OVER bet of late as well.  Indeed, the OVER is 7-0 in Heat last seven games overall.  They have combined with their opponents for 227 or more points in four straight games coming in and I think it's safe to say it will be five straight tonight as we cash this OVER 225 ticket.

Miami and Minnesota just met on April 16th with the Timberwolves pulling the 119-111 upset for 230 combined points.  The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings with each of the last three seeing 225 or more combined points.  They combined for 255 points at the end or regulation in their final meeting last season.  The OVER is also 8-1 in the last nine meetings with 225 or more combined points in six of those.

The OVER is 7-0 in Timberwolves last seven games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.  The OVER is 6-0 in Timberwolves last six games following an ATS loss.  Combine those unbeaten trends with the 5-0 and 7-0 trends from before and we have a perfect 25-0 system backing the OVER tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma City Thunder +14.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are getting healthy and playing for pride here down the stretch.  They have covered the spread in each of their last two games with a 3-point loss to the Suns as 15.5-point underdogs and a 4-point loss to the Kings as 5.5-point dogs.  And they should stay within 14.5 points of the Golden State Warriors tonight.

The Warriors are just a middle-of-the-pack NBA team and they shouldn't be laying 14.5 points to anyone.  They are without Wiseman and Paschall and could be without Oubre Jr., who is questionable tonight.  Steph Curry is scoring a ton of points and putting up huge numbers because he has to with this team that is lacking overall talent.  The Warriors just aren't that good, and Curry gets too many headlines giving them more respect than they deserve.

Oklahoma City is 34-17 ATS in its last 51 games as a road underdog.  Golden State is 1-4 ATS in its last five games as a favorite.  Take the Thunder Thursday.

20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -2

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Chicago Bulls.  They have battled through injuries and are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall against a brutal schedule with losses to the Knicks, Bucks, Hawks and 76ers.

Now the Bulls get a break in the schedule here as they come in on two days' rest, so they will be fresh and ready to go.  They will get their best player back in Zach LaVine from quarantine tonight and are as healthy as they have been all season with Nikola Vucevic also probable.  They still have an outside shot to make the playoffs with a big finish and will fight for it.

The Bulls take a step down in competition here against the Charlotte Hornets, who are 5-9 SU & 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  The Hornets are banged up right now as they are missing Gordon Hayward, Miles Bridges, Devonte Graham and Cody Martin.  They won't fare well against the rested Bulls without those guys tonight.

The Bulls are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS against the Hornets this season with two blowout victories by 13 points on the road and by 17 points at home.  It should be more of the same tonight.  Chicago is 7-0 ATS after losing six or seven of its last eight games this season.  Bet the Bulls Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on San Antonio Spurs +6.5

I love the spot for the San Antonio Spurs tonight.  They are highly motivated for a victory as they sit in 10th place in the West and currently in the playoffs if the season were to end today.  They lead the Pelicans by 2 games for that final playoff spot.

Now the Spurs want revenge from a 99-110 loss at Utah on Monday in what was a terrible spot for them.  The Spurs were coming off three straight losses by 5 points or less, were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 8th game in 13 days.  They had nothing left to give and still made that game competitive.

Now the Spurs come back as 6.5-point dogs in the rematch and had yesterday off to finally rest.  They should be able to put their best foot forward tonight, and that will be good enough to hang with and possibly beat a Utah Jazz team that just isn't as good without both Donovan Mitchell and Mike Conley.  The Jazz have been held to 112 or fewer points in seven of their last eight games overall.  That's a big reason they are just 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games.

San Antonio is 25-5 ATS in its last 30 games when revenging a road loss by 10 points or more.  The Spurs are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 road games.  San Antonio is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven games overall.  Utah is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games.  Take the Spurs Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Bucks OVER 240.5

The Washington Wizards are an OVER bettors' dream.  They play at the fastest pace in the entire NBA averaging 106.3 possessions per game.  And they have been putting up huge point totals during their 13-3 SU run in their last 16 games.

Indeed, the Wizards have scored 116 or more points in 13 consecutive games now.  They are coming off a 154-141 victory over the Indiana Pacers in regulation.  And now they take on a Milwaukee Bucks team that also likes to get up and down.  The Bucks rank 3rd in pace this season at 104.1 possessions per game and 6th in offensive efficiency.

The OVER is 7-0 in the last seven meetings in this series including the 255 and 244 points the Wizards and Bucks combined for in their two meetings this season.  They have combined for 239 or more points in all seven of those meetings and 244 or more six times.  Enough said.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia 76ers -13.5

The Philadelphia 76ers are determined to get the top seed in the Eastern Conference as they sit 1.5 games ahead of the Nets for 1st place.  They are playing like it as they have gone 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with those five wins coming by an average of 22.2 points per game.

Now they should make easy work of the Houston Rockets, who are just 5-39 SU & 12-32 ATS in their last 44 games overall.  That includes two straight blowout home losses to the Warriors by 26 and the Knicks by 25 coming in.

The Rockets just can't even be competitive right now because they are missing so many key players like Gordon, Wall, House, Wilson and Brown.  Christian Wood will try to play through a knee injury, while DJ Augustin is questionable tonight.

Houston is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games after trailing in its previous game by 15 points or more at halftime.  Philadelphia is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 games as a road favorite.  The Rockets are 6-21 ATS in their last 27 games as home underdogs.  Philadelphia won't take Houston lightly tonight due to its current standing in the Eastern Conference.  Roll with the 76ers Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington Wizards +5

The Washington Wizards are surging right now as they try and make the playoffs.  They have gone 13-3 SU in their last 16 games overall with two of those losses coming by a combined 4 points.  Now they are catching 5 points from the Milwaukee Bucks tonight.

This is an awful spot for the Bucks, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, their 5th game in 7 days, and their 8th game in 13 days.  And they are coming off two straight wins over the Brooklyn Nets, so this is a huge letdown spot for them as well.  Not to mention they won't have anything left in the tank for the Wizards, who play at a break-neck pace and will test those tired legs.

Washington is 10-1 ATS after a win by 10 points or more this season.  The Wizards are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games overall.  Washington is 5-0 ATS in its last five road games.  Bet the Wizards Wednesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Portland Trail Blazers -11

The Portland Trail Blazers are starting to finally live up to their potential.  They have gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last four games overall with all four of those victories coming by double-digits and by an average of 17.8 points per game.  

The four wins came against Indiana, Memphis, Brooklyn and Boston so it's not like they are beating up against a soft schedule.  Their only loss came on the road at Atlanta in a very tough situation as they were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th road game in 7 days.

But now the Blazers are rested having yesterday off.  The same cannot be said for the Cavaliers, who are in an awful spot tonight playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after an overtime loss to the Phoenix Suns last night.  They are already missing several key players and they could rest some more starters after all five starters played at least 33 minutes last night.

The Cavaliers are now 1-10 SU & 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games overall with those 10 losses coming by an average of 13.0 points per game.  The Cavaliers are 1-12 ATS after failing to cover the spread in four or more consecutive games this season.  Portland beat Cleveland 129-110 at home in their lone meeting earlier this season.  The Blazers are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take the Blazers Wednesday.

15* Raptors/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Toronto +9.5

The Toronto Raptors are fighting to stay alive in the Eastern Conference playoff race.  They have played three straight competitive road games against three of the best teams in the Western Conference in the Nuggets (10-point loss), Jazz (4-point loss) and Lakers (7-point outright win as 10.5-point dogs).

Now they face another of the top teams in the West in the Clippers and are catching too many points once again.  Asking the Clippers to win by double-digits to cover this spread with the way they are playing right now is asking too much.

The Clippers are 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  They lost outright to both the Pelicans and Nuggets as favorites, lost by 8 at Phoenix, and only beat Houston by 5 as 9-point favorites.  They seem to be just going through the motions right now just waiting for the playoffs to get here.

The Raptors are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  The Clippers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games as favorites.  Toronto is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 road games vs. good shooting teams that make 48% of their shots or better.  Take the Raptors Tuesday.