20* Warriors/Rockets Game 3 No-Brainer on Golden State PK

The Golden State Warriors smell blood in the water.  They are fortunate to be up 2-0 in this series after winning the first two games at home by a combined five points.  They certainly feel like there's no pressure on them now and can come out and play freely tonight.

The Rockets are absolutely devastated.  They had their chances to win the first two games, and now they know that this series is all but over and it's just not their time.  I look for a lackluster effort from them tonight after blowing the first two games down the stretch.

Plays on road favorites (GOLDEN STATE) - poor defensive team - allowing 99+ points/game on the season, after allowing 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 45-15 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Warriors Saturday.

20* Cavaliers/Hawks Game 2 ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta -1

The Atlanta Hawks are essentially in a must-win situation tonight.  They cannot afford to fall down 0-2 heading back to Cleveland.  I look for them to get the job done at home tonight and to even this series at one game apiece.

The Cavaliers got an unworldly performance out of J.R. Smith in Game 1 that they're not going to get again.  He scored a career playoff high 28 points in Game 1, connecting on eight 3-pointers.  He single-handedly won the opener for them.

Atlanta really did not play well in Game 1, which was a rarity for the Hawks at home.  They still had their chances in an 88-97 loss, but Smith's surge proved to be too much.  The Hawks are 40-8 at home this season, so I just cannot foresee them losing back-to-back games on their home floor.

The Hawks are a perfect 8-0 ATS in home games revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite over the last three seasons.  The Cavaliers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 Friday games.  The Hawks are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss.  These three trends combine for an 18-0 system backing Atlanta.  Bet the Hawks Friday.

20* Rockets/Warriors Game 2 Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 220

I'm backing the UNDER tonight in Game 2 between the Houston Rockets and Golden State Warriors.  The oddsmakers have once again set the number too high, failing to drop it from the 220-point total they set in Game 1.

These teams combined for 216 points in Game 1, and I expect Game 2 to be even more lower scoring.  Both teams even shot well at 46.5% for Houston and 46.7% for Golden State, yet they still couldn't eclipse the 220-point total.  James Harden and Stephen Curry couldn't miss in Game 1, too.

I believe there is some value with the UNDER in this game.  These teams have played five times this season and have averaged 215 combined points per game, giving us roughly five points of value here.  The UNDER is now 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in this series.

Golden State is 15-4 UNDER in its last 19 home playoff games.  The Warriors are 13-3 UNDER vs. poor free throw shooting teams that make 71% or worse over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 7-3 in Rockets last 10 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  The UNDER is 5-0-1 in Warriors last 6 home games.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Warriors last 8 games overall. Bet the UNDER in Game 2 Thursday.

20* Cavs/Hawks Game 1 ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta PK

The Atlanta Hawks have won three out of four meetings with the Cleveland Cavaliers this season with all three victories coming by eight points or more.  They earned the #1 seed in the East, yet they are getting treated like they aren't the best team in the East already in Game 1 as they are only a pick 'em at home.

I'll gladly take advantage and back the Hawks, who have been one of the best home teams in the NBA this season.  They are 40-7 at home this year where they are outscoring opponents by 8.1 points per game.  The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Hawks are 4-0 ATS in their last four home meetings with Cleveland.

Cleveland's team defense will really be tested in this game.  They could focus in on Derrick Rose last series, but they can't focus in on any one Atlanta player.  Defensively, the Hawks actually have a stopper in DeMarre Carroll who can guard Lebron James as well as about anyone.  They can focus their defense on James and Kyrie Irving.

Cleveland is 4-14 ATS in road games revenging a road loss vs opponent over the last two seasons.  Atlanta is 8-1 ATS off an upset win as a road underdog this season.  The Cavaliers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a SU win of more than 10 points.   The Hawks are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet the Hawks Wednesday.

15* Rockets/Warriors Game 1 No-Brainer on Golden State -10

The Houston Rockets have had only one day of rest following their Game 7 win over the Los Angeles Clippers Sunday.  They haven't had ample time to prepare for Golden State, and they will be at a disadvantage because of it.

Even though this is the Western Conference Finals, I believe this is a letdown spot for the Rockets.  They came back from a 3-1 deficit to beat the Clippers last series, and it's only human nature for them to take a little extra time to celebrate and to not come out with their best effort in Game 1.

Golden State, meanwhile, has had three days off since putting away Memphis 108-95 on the road in Game 6.  The Warriors have been fast starters in their two series.  They beat the Pelicans 106-99 in Game 1 of their first series in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.  They also beat Memphis 101-86 at home in Game 1 last series.

Golden State is 9-1 ATS in home games when playing 6 or less games in 14 days this season.  The Warriors are 8-0 ATS in home games versus good foul drawing teams that attempt 27 or more free throws/game in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  The Warriors are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games playing on three or more days rest.  These three trends combine for a 23-2 system backing Golden State.  Roll with the Warriors Tuesday.

20* Clippers/Rockets Game 7 No-Brainer on Los Angeles -2

After giving away Game 6, many have counted out the Los Angeles Clippers.  However, the oddsmakers believe they'll bounce back and come up clutch in Game 7 by listing them as the favorite, and I couldn't agree more.

Doc Rivers is one of the best head coaches in the league.  He will get his players to respond in a big way today, just as he did in the first round when the Clippers trailed the Spurs 3-2 and had to win Game 6 on the road to extend the series.  They obviously went on to win Game 7 at home as well.

Plays on road favorites (LA CLIPPERS) - double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent against opponent after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points are 57-24 (70.4%) ATS since 1996.  Plays on road favorites (LA CLIPPERS) - poor defensive team - allowing 99+ points/game on the season, after allowing 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 45-14 (76.3%) ATS over the last 5 seasons.

The Clippers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Sunday games.  Los Angeles is 16-5-1 ATS in its last 22 road games.  The Clippers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on 2 days' rest.  Bet the Clippers Sunday.

20* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Hawks/Wizards UNDER 198

After going over the total in three of four games to open this series, the Hawks and Wizards played in a very low scoring Game 5 that saw just 163 combined points.  I look for Game 6 to follow suit in this elimination game that will be played with high defensive intensity.

The longer a series goes on, the lower-scoring it usually gets because teams are so familiar with one another.  Yes, John Wall is back to lead the Wizards' offense, but he is only a shell of himself while playing with a fractured hand.

Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (ATLANTA) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 59-30 (66.3%) since 1996.

Atlanta is 12-1 to the UNDER when attempting to close out a playoff series since 1996.  The Hawks are 17-5 to the UNDER when leading in a playoff series since 1996.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Hawks last eight Friday games.  Bet the UNDER in Game 6 Friday.

20* Cavs/Bulls Game 6 ANNIHILATOR on Chicago -2

Pau Gasol is expected to make his return from a hamstring injury tonight in this do-or-die Game 6.  I believe his presence on the floor will push the Bulls over the top and have them forcing a Game 7 against the Cavaliers.

Chicago has really missed Gasol's offense the past three games as they've shot 37.8%, 36.0% and 39.5%, respectively.  They still managed to go 1-2 with their two losses coming by a combined 7 points even with those poor shooting percentages.

Cleveland is 1-10 ATS in road games versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds/game on the season this season.  The Cavaliers are 3-13 ATS as underdogs this season.  The Cavaliers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 1 days rest. 

The Bulls are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  Chicago is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  The Bulls are 6-1 ATS in their last seven after allowing 100 or more points in their previous game.  Chicago is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games.  Bet the Bulls Thursday.

20* Wizards/Hawks Game 5 No-Brainer on Atlanta -7.5

The Atlanta Hawks are back in control of this series after winning Game 4 106-101 to regain home-court advantage.  I look for them to blow the Wizards out of the building in Game 5, similar to their 106-90 victory in their last home game in Game 2.

The Hawks have won two out of three games since John Wall went down with injury.  The only exception was a 101-103 road loss in Game 3 where Paul Pierce made a lucky, banked-in jumper at the buzzer.

Wall was the one player that the Wizards could not afford to lose.  They have managed to be mostly competitive without him aside from that Game 2 loss at Atlanta by 16 points.  They will miss his leadership and playmaking ability on the road in Game 5.  In Game 2, the spread was 9.5, but it's only 7.5 in Game 5, so I believe there is some value here.

Washington is 1-9 ATS after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points this season.  The Wizards are 2-14 ATS after allowing 100 points or more two straight games this season.  The Wizards are 6-24-2 ATS in their last 32 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Washington is 4-21-1 ATS in its last 26 games following an ATS loss.  Atlanta is 27-12 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  Bet the Hawks in Game 5 Wednesday.

20* Bulls/Cavs Game 5 No-Brainer on Chicago +5

The Chicago Bulls missed their opportunity to win Game 4 and go up 3-1 in this series.  They shot just 36.0% from the floor and lost when Lebron James hit a game-winning jumper at the buzzer, 86-84.  I look for them to bounce back in Game 5 tonight.

I have no doubt that Chicago is the better team in this series.  Cleveland is without Kevin Love, and both James and Kyrie Irving are far from 100%.  Sure, the Bulls have injury issues of their own with Pau Gasol and Taj Gibson, but they are a deeper team that can overcome those injuries.

Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CLEVELAND) - off a road win by 3 points or less, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 60-27 (69%) ATS since 1996.

Chicago is 13-5 ATS when revenging a home loss against an opponent this season.  The Bulls are 32-17 ATS off a home loss this season.  The Bulls are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Cavaliers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 1 days rest.  Cleveland is 1-6 ATS in its last seven conference semifinal games.  Bet the Bulls Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Hawks -4.5

Facing a 3-1 deficit if they lose tonight, I look for the Atlanta Hawks to come out with an inspired effort in Game 4.  They showed grit in bouncing back from a Game 1 loss with a 16-point win in Game 2, and I look for them to blow the Wizards out of the building in this must-win situation in Game 4 as well.

Washington was able to win Game 3 despite playing without John Wall, but it won't be so fortunate in Game 4.  Wall is the one player that it cannot afford to lose.  Paul Pierce's lucky, banked jump shot at the buzzer was the only thing that saved them in Game 3.

Plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ATLANTA) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game against opponent after a close win by 3 points or less are 97-57 (63%) ATS since 1996.

The Wizards are 6-23-2 ATS in their last 31 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Washington is 1-8 ATS after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points this season.  The Wizards are 2-13 ATS off a win by 6 points or less this season.  These two trends combine for a 21-3 system backing Atlanta.  Take the Hawks in Game 4.

25* NBA Second Round TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Rockets/Clippers UNDER 217.5

The Clippers and Rockets have gone OVER the total in all three games to open this series.  They've combined for 218, 224 and 223 points.  As a result, the oddsmakers have been forced to set the highest total they have yet this series in Game 4.

That has provided us with a ton of line value to swoop in and back the UNDER tonight.  This 217.5-point total is 5.5 points more than the 212-point Game 1 total.  That fact alone allows you to see that there is value with this UNDER in Game 4.

The defensive intensity in this game will be more than it has been at any other point in the series.  The Rockets are looking at this game like a must-win, while the Clippers realize they can grab a hold of the series with a win to go up 3-1.  I look for both teams to be laying it all on the line defensively as a result.

Plays on the UNDER on any team (HOUSTON) - after 3 or more consecutive overs against opponent after 4 or more consecutive overs are 66-29 (69.5%) over the last five seasons.  Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (LA CLIPPERS) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games are 41-9 (82%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the UNDER in Game 4 Sunday.

20* Hawks/Wizards Game 3 ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta -3.5

I look for the Atlanta Hawks to regain control of this series with a win and cover in Game 3 against the Washington Wizards.  They will take advantage of the injury to John Wall, who the Wizards simply could not afford to lose if they wanted any chance of winning this series.

Atlanta shot 37.8% in Game 1, yet still had a chance to win in a 98-104 loss.  It only shot 43.5% in Game 2 and still cruised to a 106-90 victory.  I believe it's best shooting performance is awaiting in Game 3 as it shoots 46.3% as a team on the season.

As stated before, the Wizards cannot afford to be without Wall.  Ramon Sessions had a good game in his place in Game 2, scoring 21 points.  But Sessions is one of the worst defenders in the NBA, and Jeff Teague is going to continue to have his way with him in Game 3.

Plays against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (WASHINGTON) - off a road loss, with a winning record on the season are 36-13 (73.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Hawks are 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  The Wizards are 5-23-2 ATS in their last 30 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Washington is 4-21-1 ATS in its last 26 off an ATS loss.  The Wizards are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.  Bet the Hawks in Game 3 Saturday.

20* Cavaliers/Bulls Game 3 No-Brainer on Chicago -1.5

The Chicago Bulls are showing great value as small home favorites over the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 3.  I really like their chances of winning this series considering the Cavs are without Kevin Love.  They are now the better team, and they'll prove that with a win tonight to get back ahead in this series.

The Cavs shot 12-of-26 from 3-point range in Game 2, which isn't going to happen again.  "I know our fans are waiting, the city's just waiting for us to come back there and it should be another exciting game," Derrick Rose said. "Hopefully we play some defense."

Cleveland is 1-8 ATS in road games versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds/game on the season this season.  The Cavaliers are 3-12 ATS as an underdog this season.  Chicago is 12-4 ATS revenging a loss vs. an opponent of 10 points or more this season.

This play also fits one of my favorite zig-zag theory systems.  It tells us to play on home favorites who are coming off a loss by 10 points or more.  These home favorites need to have a winning percentage between .600 and .750 and need to be playing against a team with a winning percentage better than .500.  This system was on a 55-30 ATS run coming into the 2015 playoffs.  Bet the Bulls in Game 3 Friday.

25* NBA Second Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Houston Rockets -6.5

The Houston Rockets came out flat in Game 1.  They thought they could just show up and win against a Clippers team that was playing without its best player in Chris Paul.  The Rockets won't make the same mistake again.  Look for them to come out with their most inspired effort of the season in Game 2.

Paul is expected to sit again as he's listed as doubtful.  It's a smart move by Doc Rivers, who has to be satisfied with getting home-court advantage after stealing Game 1.  The Clippers aren't about to play as well as they did without Paul again.

This play fits into one of my favorite playoff systems.  It's part of the zig-zag theory where you play on the team that lost the last game.  This system tells us to play on a home favorite that lost the last game by 10 points or more with a winning percentage from .600 to .750 against a team with better than a .500 record.  This system is 55-30-2 (64.7%) ATS in its last 87 tries.

Los Angeles is 4-12 ATS after having won 12 or more of its last 15 games this season.  Houston 12-1 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite this season, including a perfect 7-0 ATS off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite this year.  Bet the Rockets Wednesday.

20* Wizards/Hawks Game 2 ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta -6

The Washington Wizards are way overvalued right now due to going a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the playoffs up to this point.  They won home-court advantage by stealing Game 1, and now I expect them to let up a little, while Atlanta puts the foot on the gas in Game 2 in essentially a must-win game.

The Hawks uncharacteristically missed a ton of wide open shots that they normally make in Game 1, yet they still almost won.  They shot just 37.8% from the field and lost 98-104.  As good as this team is at shooting the ball, I expect a much sharper performance in Game 2, which will lead to a win by 7-plus points to cover this spread.

Washington has some serious injury issues right now.  Bradley Beal severely sprained his ankle in Game 1, and while he's expected to play through the pain in Game 2, he clearly won't be effective.  John Wall also suffered a hand injury from a hard fall to the floor.  If this was the regular season, both players would likely be out.  Give them credit for gutting it out, but the Wizards simply aren't the same team without Wall and Beal at 100%.

Washington is 2-12 ATS off a win by 6 points or less this season.  Atlanta is a perfect 10-0 ATS when revenging two straight losses where their opponent scored 100 or more points this season.  They are coming back to win 103.8 to 95.4 on average in this spot.  Bet the Hawks in Game 2 Tuesday.

20* Clippers/Rockets Game 1 No-Brainer on UNDER 212

With Chris Paul likely out for the Clippers, I look for them to be a little lost offensively.  Their offense only goes as he goes.  That's a big reason why I'm taking the UNDER in this Game 1 Monday.

Another reason is how the season series has played out.  The UNDER is 4-0 in four meetings this season, and 6-1 in the last seven meetings dating back to last year.

The Clippers and Rockets have combined for 198, 215, 205 and 187 points in their four meetings this season.  That's an average of 201.3 points per game, which is roughly 11 points less than tonight's posted total of 212.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (HOUSTON) - after going under the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 28-7 (80%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the UNDER in Game 1 Monday.

15* Wizards/Hawks Game 1 Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Washington +5

The Washington Wizards showed me enough in their first series to know that they are real contenders in the Eastern Conference playoffs.  I look for them to give the Hawks a run for their money tonight and to likely steal Game 1.

The Wizards' four-game sweep of the Toronto Raptors was rarely even close as all four games they won by 7 or more points.  The Atlanta Hawks were much more vulnerable in their series, needing six games to get by eighth-seeded Brooklyn with three of their wins going down to the wire.

Washington is a perfect 8-0 ATS in its last eight road playoff games.  Atlanta is 4-18 ATS in the second round of the playoffs since 1996.  Washington is 16-4 ATS in road games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days over the last 3 seasons.  The Wizards are 9-1-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  Take the Wizards in Game 1 Sunday.

20* Spurs/Clippers Game 7 No-Brainer on UNDER 204

Games in the playoffs tend to get lower scoring as the series goes on.  The intensity picks up, and teams become more familiar with one another.  With everything on the line in a Game 7, the defensive intensity is magnified even more, and the rim becomes smaller for shooters.

These teams combined for 198 points in Game 6.  That was the second-lowest scoring game of the series as they combined for 199 in Game 1.  Game 7 will be the lowest-scoring game yet.

The UNDER is 10-4 in Clippers last 14 games overall.  The UNDER is 12-5 in Clippers last 17 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The UNDER is 9-4 in Spurs last 13 games playing on 1 days rest.   Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Hawks/Nets Game 6 Line Mistake on Atlanta -3.5

The Atlanta Hawks have toyed around with the Brooklyn Nets for long enough.  This series ends tonight and I'll back the Hawks laying a small number on the road.

The Hawks swept the Nets during the regular season, but this has been a much feistier series.  The Nets are getting some respect from the books because they have hung around, but that all changes tonight.

Plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ATLANTA) - an explosive offensive team (>=102 PPG) against a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games are 93-56 (62.4%) ATS since 1996.

The Hawks are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.  That's the only trend that backs the Hawks, but tonight they show out like they are champs in the East.  It's time to separate themselves from the pack.  Bet the Hawks Friday.

20* Clippers/Spurs Game 6 No-Brainer on Los Angeles +5.5

The road team has won three of the last four meetings in this series.  I don't expect the Clippers to go out without a fight tonight.  They have arguably been the better team in this series as they've lost a couple nail-biters in Game 2 and Game 5.

Los Angeles came up big with a 114-105 road win at San Antonio in Game 4.  It was essentially playing for its season in that game, and it is playing for its season tonight as well.  This core group of players has been together long enough to handle this kind of pressure-packed situation.

The Clippers have actually been playing their best basketball on the road here of late.  In fact, they are 9-1 SU in their last 10 road games overall.  They are also 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 road games.  Doc Rivers will rally the troops tonight and have them coming back with an inspired effort.  Bet the Clippers in Game 6 Thursday.

20* Blazers/Grizzlies Game 5 No-Brainer on Portland +6

The Portland Trail Blazers got a huge break when Memphis point guard Mike Conley suffered a facial fracture in Game 3.  His defense on Damian Lillard in the first three games was as big a reason as any that the Grizzlies were up 3-0.

Without Conley in Game 4, the Blazers took advantage.  They won 99-92 behind a huge game from Lillard.  After scoring just 32 total points on 10-of-37 shooting in his first two games at Memphis, Lillard scored 22 points with nine assists in Game 3, and then a game-high 32 points in the Game 4 win.

I really think that the Blazers believe they can get back into this series now, and I look for them to not only to cover this 6-point spread at Memphis in Game 5, but to likely win this game outright.  C.J. McCollum has been huge too, scoring 44 points in the past two games.

Memphis is 19-42 ATS off three straight games where they committed 14 or less turnovers over the past two seasons.  This series is about to get interesting with the Blazers likely to take this game tonight.  Bet Portland in Game 5 Wednesday.

20* Spurs/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -2

The Los Angeles Clippers showed a lot of guts by going into San Antonio and winning Game 4 114-105 to keep their season alive.  Now that they've regained home-court advantage, I expect them to hold onto it with a victory in Game 5 tonight.

The Clippers have been playing as well as anyone over the past couple months.  They are now 16-3 in their last 19 games overall and arguably should be up 3-1 in this series after blowing a late lead in Game 2 to lose in overtime.  They are simply the better team this year, and their resiliency shown in Game 4 will give them a lot of confidence going forward.

Los Angeles is 31-12 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by 7.8 points per game.  San Antonio has been vulnerable on the road this year with a mediocre 23-20 record away from home.  The Clippers have now won four of their last six meetings with the Spurs this season, showing that they are better than the defending champs.

The Spurs are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Los Angeles is 24-13 ATS off two straight games with 10 or fewer offensive rebounds this season.  Bet the Clippers in Game 5 Tuesday.

20* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Bucks/Bulls UNDER 188

The Chicago Bulls and Milwaukee Bucks will take part in a defensive battle tonight in Chicago.  This is Game 5 of the series, and as a series goes on, the games tend to get lower-scoring with both teams becoming more and more familiar with one another.

This has already been a pretty low-scoring series with all four games seeing 194 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation.  They combined for 194 points at the end of regulation in Game 1, but then just 173 in Game 2, 190 in Game 3, and 182 in Game 4.

In fact, each of the last 13 meetings in this series have seen 194 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation.  Nine of the last 12 meetings have seen 186 or fewer combined points, making for a 9-3 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set of 188 points.

The UNDER is 15-4 in Bucks last 19 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The UNDER is 18-6 in Bulls last 24 games vs.  a team with a winning percentage from .400 to .490.  The UNDER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings in this series.  Bet the UNDER in Game 5 Monday.

25* NBA First Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Clippers +6.5

The Los Angeles Clippers know that this is a must-win game to avoid falling behind the defending champion Spurs 3-1.  I look for them to give their best effort tonight in Game 4 and likely pull off the upset, though I'll take the points for some added insurance.

There is clearly some value here as the Clippers were only 4.5-point dogs in Game 3, and now 6.5-point dogs in Game 4.  They couldn't have played any worse in Game 3, shooting 34.1% while allowing 52.6% shooting. 

That's not going to happen again.  That performance has also helped create some line value here.  The betting public is big on "what have you done lately", which creates overreactions in lines.  I believe this is a classic overreaction.

Plays on road underdogs (LA CLIPPERS) - revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more against opponent off a home win are 74-34 (68.5%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

The Clippers are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 road games.  They have only lost one of their last 19 games by more than 4 points, making for an 18-1 system backing them pertaining to today's 6.5-point spread.  Bet the Clippers Sunday.

20* NBA Saturday Night Line Mistake on New Orleans Pelicans +7

The Golden State Warriors are 0-3 ATS in this series and 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall.  They continue to be overvalued because they are the No. 1 team in the Western Conference and have the best record in the NBA.  Once again, they are overvalued as 7-point favorites in Game 4.

The New Orleans Pelicans are such a young team that they don't know any better.  I would expect an older team to fold in this situation, but the young Pelicans play with a lot of pride, and they don't want to get swept 4-0.  They have proven they can play with Golden State, and they want to show it with a victory in Game 4.

New Orleans played great down the stretch just to get into the postseason, going 8-3 SU in its last 11 games overall, which were all pretty much must-win games like this one is.  It has hung with Golden State in all three games thus far as all three losses came by 10 points or less, including the OT home loss in Game 3.

New Orleans is 28-14 at home this season.  Plays against favorites (GOLDEN STATE) - when leading in a playoff series, a top-level team (>=75%) playing a team with a winning record are 63-29 (68.5%) ATS since 1996.  The Pelicans are 28-13 ATS as underdogs this season. 

The Warriors are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.  The Pelicans are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games.  Golden State is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 games overall.  New Orleans is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  These four trends combine for a perfect 23-0 system backing New Orleans.  Bet the Pelicans Saturday.

15* Clippers/Spurs ESPN Friday Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +4.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are steaming mad over the way they lost Game 2 in overtime.  They had it all but won in the end, and now I look for them to show some real grit in Game 3 to come back and regain home-court advantage in this series.

The Spurs are now 8-0 when trailing 1-0 in a first-round series.  They showed their mental toughness in Game 2, but now they are in rough shape after playing an overtime game.  That's especially the case since they may be short-handed with Tony Parker questionable after leaving Game 2 with an injury.

The Clippers are still playing as well as anyone right now with a 15-2 record in their last 17 games overall.  Both of their losses came by exactly 4 points to San Antonio and Golden State.

In fact, the Clippers haven't lost a game by more than 4 points in any of their last 18 contests.  That makes for a perfect 18-0 system backing Los Angeles pertaining to tonight's 4.5-point spread.  Take the Clippers Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rockets/Mavericks UNDER 214.5

The NBA playoffs are pretty predictable every year.  Series get lower and lower scoring as they go on on average because teams become more and more familiar with each other, which favors the defenses.

That happened from Game 1 to Game 2 as they scored 226 points in Game 1 and 210 points in Game 2.  I expect an even lower-scoring affair in Game 3 tonight, especially with the way these teams have played in recent meetings.

The Mavs and Rockets have combined for 211 or fewer points in 5 of their last 6 meetings.  They have combined for 193, 187, 211, 209, 226 and 210 points.  Given those numbers alone, it's easy to see why there is some value on this UNDER in Game 3 tonight.

Dallas is 13-4 UNDER when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent this season.  The UNDER is 7-1-1 in Mavericks last 9 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Mavericks last 6 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Thursday Night Line Mistake on New Orleans Pelicans +5

I've backed the New Orleans Pelicans with success in both Game 1 and Game 2.  I'll back them again in Game 3 for many of the same reasons, and also a few more.  They are simply showing too good of value to pass up as 5-point underdogs.

The Pelicans closed out the regular season playing their best basketball of the season.  They went 8-3 over their final 11 games just to get into the postseason, which included home wins over both the Spurs and Warriors.  Then, they played the Warriors tough on the road in the first two games, losing by 7 & 10 points.

The Warriors are simply overvalued in the early going in the playoffs because they had the best record in the NBA.  The #1 team is usually overvalued against the #8 team, and that has been the case in 2015 as the #8 seeds are now 4-0 ATS.  Golden State just cannot live up to the lofty expectations set forth from the oddsmakers and betting public.

New Orleans has been a dominant home team this season.  It has gone 28-13 on its home floor with a 24-16-1 ATS record to boot.  It is finally healthy, which is why it is living up to its potential here down the stretch.  With the series on the line in Game 3, I look for the Pelicans to respond in front of their raucous home crowd tonight.

The Pelicans are 27-13 ATS as underdogs this season, including 10-2 ATS as home underdogs.  New Orleans is 19-6 ATS off a road loss this season, and 8-1 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more.  The Warriors are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win, and 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  The Pelicans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 five home games, and 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. NBA Pacific Division foes.  These last four trends combine for a perfect 20-0 system backing New Orleans.  Bet the Pelicans Thursday.

20* NBA Wednesday Night Line Mistake on Brooklyn Nets +9.5

The Brooklyn Nets gave the Atlanta Hawks a tougher fight than expected in Game 1 in a 92-99 loss as 11-point underdogs.  I look for them to play even tougher tonight as they look to avoid falling to 0-2 in this series and to easily cover this 9.5-point spread.

The Nets have played their best basketball down the stretch in going 13-7 in their last 20 games overall.  They are finally healthy, and Deron Williams, Brook Lopez and Joe Johnson have all stepped up their games.  This team is better than their overall record would indicate even though they snuck in as the No. 8 seed.

The Atlanta Hawks remain overvalued due to having the best record in the Eastern Conference.  Well, they aren't as strong of a team now as they were before because their two starting big men are banged up right now in Paul Millsap and Al Horford.  Both are expected to play, but both are hampered by injuries.

Brooklyn is 24-8 ATS in road games when playing 6 or less games in 14 days over the last 3 seasons.  Atlanta is 1-9 ATS after 2 straight games where they had 10 or more steals this season.  The Hawks are 13-29 ATS in their last 42 when playing on two days' rest.  The Nets are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet the Nets Wednesday.

20* Mavs/Rockets NBA Tuesday No-Brainer on UNDER 215.5

The Mavericks and Rockets played in a high-scoring affair in Game 1 as they combined for 226 combined points.  The total for that game was set at 213, and now the books have raised it up to 215.5 for Game 2, providing us with some value on the UNDER.

As a series goes on, teams get more familiar with one another, and that usually leads to better defense being played.  I look for that to be the case in Game 2 as the intensity is picked up a notch, and the game slows down as a result.

That Game 1 outburst was really an aberration when you look at the regular season meetings.  In fact, the UNDER went 4-0 in the four meetings between these teams during the regular year.  They combined for 211 or fewer points in all four meetings, or an average of 200.0 points per game.  That fact alone shows that there is value with this UNDER.

Dallas is 12-4 UNDER when playing with double revenge; two straight losses vs. opponent this season.  Plays on the UNDER on any team (HOUSTON) - after 2 or more consecutive overs against opponent after 6 or more consecutive overs are 30-8 (78.9%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the UNDER in Game 2 Tuesday.

20* Pelicans/Warriors NBA Monday Night BAILOUT on New Orleans +12.5

The Golden State Warriors continue to be overvalued tonight as 12.5-point favorites over the New Orleans Pelicans.  They had the best record in the NBA this season, and as a result they came into the playoffs getting too much respect from the betting public and oddsmakers.

Yes, the Warriors could have easily covered the 12-point spread in Game 1 as they led by double-digits throughout, but they weren't able to in a 106-99 win.  Now, the Pelicans will be playing even more desperate basketball tonight in Game 2 to try and even the series.

New Orleans is playing its best basketball of the season here of late.  It has gone 8-4 SU & 7-4-1 ATS in its last 12 games overall, which were all pretty much must-win games to get into the playoffs.  It has even beaten the likes of San Antonio and Golden State during this stretch.

The Warriors are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  New Orleans is 26-13 ATS as an underdog this season.  The Pelicans are 16-4 ATS after two straight games giving up 10 or fewer offensive rebounds this season.  New Orleans is 18-6 ATS off a road loss this year.  The Pelicans are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Warriors are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win.  Bet the Pelicans Monday.

15* Spurs/Clippers NBA Sunday Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +1

The Los Angeles Angels Clippers are showing great value as home underdog to the San Antonio Spurs in Game 1 of this series.  I'll take them at a discount in a game I fully expect them to win outright.

The Clippers are playing as well as anyone entering the playoffs.  They have gone 7-0 in their last seven games and 14-1 in their last 15 games overall.  They are getting no love today, which will only fuel their fire against the defending champs.

I actually believe the Spurs come into the playoffs deflated because they had the No. 2 seed wrapped up. Instead, they lost their last game of the season to fall to the No. 6 seed and a road series against the Clips.

San Antonio is 3-13 ATS when playing its 2nd game in 5 days this season.  Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SAN ANTONIO) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games, after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better are 22-5 (81.5%) ATS since 1996.  Take the Clippers Sunday.

20* NBA Sunday Playoffs Line Mistake on Brooklyn Nets +10.5

The Atlanta Hawks come into the playoffs way overvalued.  Yes, they're the No. 1 seed, but they are far from the best team in the postseason.  They're being treated like an elite team with this double-digit spread.

The Nets earned their way into the playoffs with a 101-88 win over Orlando in the season finale.  They obviously aren't as good as they expected to be with that payroll, but when it matters, they have the players who can get it done in the playoffs.

The  Hawks beat the Nets 4-0 during the regular season.  These games weren't close either.  That has the betting public rolling the Hawks, but it also has provided us with great line value to go against the public and take the double-digit points.

Atlanta is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after 2 straight games where they had 10 or more steals this season.  The Nets are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Hawks are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 vs. NBA Atlantic.  The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.  Bet the Nets Sunday.

20* Mavericks/Rockets NBA Saturday Night BAILOUT on UNDER 211.5

The books have set the bar too high in this game between the Mavericks and Rockets in terms of the over/under.  Based off of their meetings during the regular season, it's clear that there is some value with this under, especially with the defensive intensity amplified in the playoffs.

The Mavs and Rockets have combined for 211 or fewer points in all four meetings this season.  They have combined for 209, 211, 193 and 187 points from most recent to furthest back.  That's an average of 200 combined points per game, which is roughly 11.5 points less than tonight's posted total of 211.5.

When you just look at season averages alone it's clear there's value with the UNDER, too.  The Mavs combine with their opponents for 207.5 points per game overall, and 206.1 points per game on the road.  The Rockets combine with their foes for 204.4 points overall, and only 201.6 at home.

Houston is 13-4 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Mavericks last four vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Rockets last four vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 4-0 in four meetings this season.  Take this combined 12-0 system backing the UNDER straight to the bank tonight.  Bet the UNDER Saturday.

20* Spurs/Pelicans NBA Wednesday No-Brainer on New Orleans +5.5

The New Orleans Pelicans and San Antonio Spurs both have a lot to play for tonight.  A win gets New Orleans in the playoffs, while a win for San Antonio gets it the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference.  So, both teams will be laying it all on the line tonight.

However, there's no question that the Spurs are the one receiving all of the public action in this one because they have won 11 straight while going 9-2 ATS in the process.  That has created a ton of line value for us to pounce on the Pelicans here.

New Orleans has been great at home, going 27-13 SU & 23-16-1 ATS this season.  It has won four straight home games coming in with blowout victories over Phoenix (by 15), Minnesota (by 22) and Sacramento (by 14).  Most impressive was its 103-100 home win over Golden State as 4.5-point dogs during this stretch.

The Pelicans have played the Spurs very tough this season.  In fact, they are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their three meetings with San Antonio.  Their only loss came by a final of 93-95 (OT) on the road.  They won 97-90 at on on December 26th and 100-99 on the road on November 8th.  There's a good chance this one goes right down to the wire as well.  The Spurs are also 1-7 ATS in their last eight trips to New Orleans.

New Orleans is 10-2 ATS in home games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season.  San Antonio is 3-12 ATS when playing its 2nd game in 5 days this season.  The Pelicans are 8-1 ATS following a game with 15 or less assists this season.  New Orleans is 9-1 ATS after failing to cover 4 or 5 of its last 6 against the spread this season.  The Spurs are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Pelicans are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet the Pelicans Wednesday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Toronto Raptors -2

The Boston Celtics just clinched a playoff spot with their 117-78 win at Miami on Sunday.  They literally have nothing to play for now, and it's only human nature for them to suffer a big letdown tonight after realizing that they will be playing in the postseason.

The Toronto Raptors still have plenty to play for.  They are just a half-game back of Chicago for the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference.  They control their own destiny because if they win out, they will be the No. 3 seed.  That would have them playing Milwaukee instead of Washington in the first round.

Toronto has been fighting down the stretch, going 6-2 in its last eight games overall, including three straight road victories at Charlotte, Orlando and Miami coming in.  Its only two losses have come by a combined 6 points, which is how close it is to being 8-0 during this stretch.

I also like the fact that the Raptors are coming in on two days' rest, so they'll be fresh and ready to go.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series.  With nothing to play for, I don't expect the Celtics to show up tonight.  Roll with the Raptors Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on New York Knicks +14.5

The New York Knicks have been one of the worst teams in the NBA this season.  As a result, the betting public has wanted nothing to do with them here down the stretch, which has created a ton of line value to back them.  That's the case again tonight folks.

The Knicks are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They only lost to Brooklyn by 2 as 9.5-point dogs, beat Philadelphia by 10 as 1-point dogs, only lost to Milwaukee by 8 as 11-point dogs, and beat Orlando by 1 as 11-point dogs.  They are clearly playing hard here down the stretch.

Atlanta literally has nothing to play for and would be wise to rest its starters heading into the playoffs.  It lost 99-108 at Washington yesterday, and you can bet it's not going to overwork its starters in this second of a back-to-back situation.  Paul Millsap is out with a shoulder injury to boot.

Plays against home favorites (ATLANTA) - playing on back-to-back days, in April games are 205-133 (60.7%) ATS since 1996.  The Knicks are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 trips to Atlanta.  Take the Knicks Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Bulls/Nets UNDER 200

Both the Chicago Bulls and Brooklyn Nets have a lot to play for heading into their showdown tonight.  The Bulls want home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs, while the Nets want to just make the playoffs as they are currently the No. 9 seed if the season were to end today, tied with No. 8 Indiana.

There's no question that both teams are going to be laying it all on the line defensively to get a win tonight.  That's why I believe there is a ton of value in backing the UNDER in this contest, especially when you consider the recent history in this head-to-head series.

The Bulls and Nets have combined for 192 or fewer points in eight consecutive meetings.  They have combined for 178, 185, 186, 176, 168, 173, 192 and 187 points.  That's an average of 180.6 combined points per game, which is roughly 19 points less than tonight's posted total of 200.

The UNDER is 5-0 in Bulls last 5 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Nets last 6 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  The UNDER is 6-0 in the last six meetings.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Bulls last 5 games following a loss.  These four trends combine for a perfect 22-0 system backing the UNDER.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Detroit Pistons +6.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers clinched the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference in a win over Milwaukee on April 8th.  Since that victory, they have clearly shut it down.  They weren't interested in their back-to-back losses to Boston by finals of 90-99 and 78-117, and they won't be interested in this game, either.

The Detroit Pistons are playing out their season and would love to beat Cleveland here to kind of put a cherry on top of a successful second half.  The Pistons are 7-5 SU & 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games overall, which includes a blowout 116-77 win over Charlotte yesterday.

Plays against home favorites (CLEVELAND) - playing on back-to-back days, in April games are 205-133 (60.7%) ATS since 1996.  Plays against home favorites (CLEVELAND) - after trailing their last two games by 10+ points at the half are 60-30 (66.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.

The Pistons are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Detroit is 5-0 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  Cleveland is 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall.  The Cavs are 1-5 ATS in their last six games when playing on 0 days' rest.  Bet the Pistons Monday.

20* NBA Sunday Afternoon Line Mistake on Detroit Pistons -7.5

The Charlotte Hornets have officially been eliminated from the playoffs.  With that realization, the Hornets won't show up at all today.  That's why I'll lay the points with the Pistons at home in this one.

Without question, the Pistons are finishing out their season.  They have gone a ridiculous 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  Stan Van Gundy has this team playing some of their best ball of the season.

The Hornets, meanwhile, have gone 0-3 in their last three games overall.  They lost by 5 at Miami, by 18 at home to Toronto, and by 24 at Atlanta.  If that's not evidence that they have quit I don't know that is.  They won't show up today either.

Detroit is 15-5 ATS after having lost two of its last three games this season.  Charlotte is 33-59 ATS versus poor shooting teams that make 43% or less since 1996.  The Hornets are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.   The Pistons are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following a S.U. loss.  Detroit is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games.  Bet the Pistons Sunday.

25* NBA GAME OF THE YEAR on Utah Jazz +7

The Portland Trail Blazers have absolutely nothing to play for right now.  They are pretty much locked into the No. 4 seed in the Western Conference, but will be playing their opening series on the road due to being two games back of the No. 5 seed Los Angeles Clippers.

Portland had a golden chance to move up in the standings on Thursday at Golden State, but struggled down the stretch in a 105-116 loss.  That loss was probably the last straw for this team as now they'll be more concerned with getting rested heading into the playoffs than anything.

That's evident by the fact that they are expected to rest their best player in LaMarcus Aldridge tonight.  Aaron Afflalo injured his shoulder against the Warriors and is out 1-2 weeks.  Portland was already without Wesley Matthews and Dorell Wright, so it is short-handed tonight to say the least.

What you have to love about the Utah Jazz is just how they have continued to lay it on the line every night despite being out of playoff contention.  They are 5-2 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They will be highly motivated to bounce back from an 88-89 loss to Memphis last night.  Their two losses in their last three games have come by a combined 3 points.

Utah is 1-2 against Portland this season, but its two losses have come by a combined 4 points, while its win came by 16.  The Jazz are 19-3 ATS revenging a home loss against an opponent this season.  Utah is 7-0 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs. opponent as a favorite this season.  The Jazz are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games playing on 0 days' rest.  Bet the Jazz Saturday.

15* Spurs/Rockets NBA Friday No-Brainer on UNDER 206.5

This is a home-and-home situation for the San Antonio Spurs and Houston Rockets.  San Antonio beat Houston 110-98 at home on Wednesday for 208 combined points.  So, they're now playing two days later, and their familiarity with one another will lead to more of a defensive battle in the rematch tonight.

Plus, both these teams are fighting for the Southwest Division Title.  Houston is 53-25 while San Antonio is 53-26, just a half-game back.  Both have a realistic shot of getting the No. 2 seed in the West, but both could also slip to No. 5 if they don't finish strong.  That means both teams should be laying it all on the line defensively tonight to get a win.

Previous meetings in Houston have been extremely low-scoring in comparison to this total.  They have combined for 179, 202, 187 and 191 points in their last four meetings in Houston as the UNDER has gone 4-0.  That's an average combined score of 189.8 points per game, which is roughly 17 points less than tonight's posted total of 206.5.

San Antonio is 12-2 UNDER as a road favorite of 6 points or less this season.  Houston is 17-6 UNDER in a home game where where the total is between 205 and 209.5 points over the last two seasons.  Houston is 13-3 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season.  The UNDER is 20-6 in Rockets last 26 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Bucks/Knicks UNDER 191

The Milwaukee Bucks have been one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season due to their ability to get after it on the defensive end of the court.  In fact, they rank 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 99.9 points per 100 possessions.

Now, they'll be up against one of the worst offensive teams in the NBA in the New York Knicks.  The Knicks rank 29th in offensive efficiency, averaging 97.2 points per 100 possessions.  New York also plays at a very slow tempo, ranking 28th in pace at 93.5 possessions per game.

The last two meetings between these teams in 2015 have been very low-scoring.  They Bucks won 95-82 for 177 combined points and 95-79 for 174 combined points, which are both numbers that are well below tonight's posted total of 191, showing just how much value there is with this UNDER.

New York is 8-1 UNDER when revenging two straight losses vs opponent of 10 points or more this season.  The UNDER is 16-5 in Bucks last 21 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 17-8 in Bucks last 25 games following a loss. The UNDER is 21-10 in Bucks last 31 vs. Eastern Conference foes.  The UNDER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings in New York.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total ANNIHILATOR on Wizards/Nets UNDER 200.5

Both the Washington Wizards and Brooklyn Nets have a lot to play for right now.  Washington is one game back of Toronto for the No. 4 seed and home-court advantage in the first round.  Brooklyn is one game ahead of Indiana for the No. 8 seed in the Eastern Conference, just fighting to make the playoffs.

Because these two teams have a lot to play for right now, I look for both to be laying it all on the line defensively.  Washington has quietly been one of the best defensive teams in the league this year, ranking 3rd in defensive efficiency at 99.8 points per 100 possessions allowed.

What I really love about this UNDER is the recent head-to-head meetings.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings.  The UNDER is 3-0 in three meetings in 2015 alone where they've combined for 182, 189 and 191 points.  That's an average of 187.3 combined points per game, which is roughly 13 points less than tonight's posted total of 200.5.  Plus, the familiarity between these teams having played 4 times in 2015 alone will favor the defenses.

Washington is 170-107 UNDER in road games when the total is 190 to 199.5 points since 1996.  Brooklyn is 15-5 UNDER after having lost two of its last three games this season.  The UNDER is 8-1-1 in Wizards last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The UNDER is 35-12-2 in Wizards last 49 games playing on 1 days' rest.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Boston Celtics +6

The Boston Celtics have played their way into the playoffs if the season were to end today.  They are currently the No. 7 seed in the Eastern Conference, tied with No. 8 seed Brooklyn with identical 36-42 record.  They are only one game ahead of No. 9 Indiana (35-43), so they aren't going to be letting up any time soon.

The Celtics have gone 13-7 in their last 20 games overall, including 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five contests.  They wont at Charlotte by 12, at home against Indiana by 13, at Toronto by 1, and at Detroit by 10.  They are simply playing their best basketball of the season right now at the perfect time.

Cleveland would normally be a bigger favorite in a different situation, but this is a very bad spot to back the Cavaliers.  They just clinched the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference with their 104-99 win at Milwaukee on Wednesday.  Now, they literally have nothing to play for, which is why Lebron James is expected to rest tonight.  I don't expect the Cavaliers to show up at all.

Boston is 21-9 ATS as a road underdog this season.  The Celtics are 9-1 ATS in road games after allowing 100 points or more in two straight games this year.  Boston is 8-1 ATS in road games versus good offensive teams that average 103-plus points per game this season.  The Celtics are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Bet the Celtics Friday.

20* Blazers/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland +9.5

The Golden State Warriors have absolutely nothing to play for.  They have already clinched home-court advantage throughout the playoffs and have no need to show up the rest of the way.  That has been evident in their last couple games.

Golden State could suffer its first three-game losing streak in 17 months.  It is coming off back-to-back losses at San Antonio (92-107) and New Orleans (100-103), which were two motivated opponents.  It will now be up against another motivated squad tonight.

The Portland Trail Blazers are now 1.5 games behind Los Angeles and San Antonio in the race for home-court advantage in the first round.  They have won seven of their last nine to put themselves in this position.  They are playing the second of a back-to-back, but were able to rest some starters in a 116-91 blowout of the Minnesota Timberwolves last night.

"We've lost our last two, but we're not going to dwell on that fact," Stephen Curry said. "We pretty much have handled business on the road and we've been competitive in every single game besides probably two."  That sounds like a player not concerned with the losing streak, and one that is just looking forward to the playoffs.

"We know that the more games we win we give ourselves a better chance of having home court, so we wanted to come out and attack the game," said guard Damian Lillard.  That sounds like a guy determined to get home court.  The Blazers will also be motivated to avoid the season sweep at the hands of the Warriors after losing the first two.

Portland is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 vs. NBA Pacific Division opponents.  The Blazers are 4-1 ATS in their last five against Western Conference foes.  The Warriors are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games when playing on one days' rest.  The road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet the Blazers Thursday.

15* Timberwolves/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Minnesota +17

This is simply too big of a number that the oddsmakers are asking the Portland Trail Blazers to cover.  They just don't have much to play for at this point in the season.  They won their division so they will be the No. 4 seed, but they are likely to play their first series on the road because they will have a worse record than the No. 5 seed.

Portland has had a rash of injuries here of late, too.  LaMarcus Aldridge and Nicolas Batum both missed their 96-106 loss at Brooklyn on Monday.  While both are expected to return, they are still banged up.  Chris Kaman is questionable with a thump injuries, while Dorell Wright and Wesley Matthews are out for the season.

Yes, this will be the second of a back-to-back for the Timberwolves, but it won't affect them much after losing to Sacramento 111-116 last night.  That's because they had three days off prior to that game, so they will still be fresh and ready to go.  They could not possibly be more undervalued than they are right now.

Minnesota has played Portland very tough this season, going 2-1 SU & 2-0-1 ATS in three meetings.  The Timberwolves have not lost to the Blazers by more than 15 points in any of their last 18 meetings, making for a perfect 18-0 system backing them pertaining to tonight's 17-point spread.  Bet the Timberwolves Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pacers/Knicks UNDER 191.5

The books have set the bar way too high in this contest between the Indiana Pacers and New York Knicks tonight.  These teams have played in low-scoring games in all three meetings this season, and I look for that to continue tonight.

These are two of the worst offensive teams in the NBA.  New York ranks 29th in offensive efficiency while Indiana ranks 24th.  Both teams prefer to play at slow paces too.  New York ranks 28th in pace at 93.5 possessions per game, while Indiana ranks 19th at 95.7 possessions per contest.

The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between these teams as they've combined for 178, 187, 185 and 178 points, respectively.  That's an average of 182.0 combined points per game, which is roughly 10 points less than tonight's posted total of 191.5.

Indiana is 10-1 UNDER in road games off two consecutive home wins by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Pacers last four vs. a team with a losing record.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Knicks last five vs. a team with a losing record.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings.  These four trends combine for a 23-1 system backing the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night Line Mistake on Orlando Magic +8

The Chicago Bulls just have a way of playing to the level of their competition.  They have done it time and time again this year, playing their best against the best teams, and playing their worst against the worst teams.  I look for that trend to continue tonight.

The Orlando Magic clearly have not quit.  They are coming off two of their best performances of the season, winning 97-84 at Minnesota as 4.5-point favorites, and then upsetting Milwaukee 97-90 as 8-point road underdogs.  Now, they have had three days off in between games to prepare for Chicago, which will be a huge advantage.

Orlando is 3-0 ATS against Chicago this season.  It only lost 97-98 at home as 6.5-point dogs, won 121-114 on the road as 11.5-point dogs, and lost 90-98 as 10-point road dogs.  The Magic are now 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  The underdog is 25-9 ATS in the last 34 meetings in this series.

Chicago is in a big hangover spot off its tough 94-99 loss at Cleveland last time out as well.  The Bulls are 31-53 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last three seasons.  Chicago is 14-24 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record this season.  Take the Magic Wednesday.

15* Spurs/Thunder TNT Tuesday No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +7

The Oklahoma City Thunder are fighting for their playoff lives.  They are now just 0.5 games ahead of the New Orleans Pelicans for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference.  Their margin for error is zero right now, so look for them to come out swinging tonight.

Yes, the San Antonio Spurs are still fighting for playoff positioning, but this game isn't nearly as important to them as it is for the Thunder.  I look for that to show in the team's performances tonight as the Thunder will simply want this game more.

The Spurs could not possibly be more overvalued than they are right now.  They are 17-3 SU & 16-4 ATS in their last 20 games, including 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven games.  The betting public has taken notice and has been quick to back them, forcing oddsmakers to set this number a lot higher than it should be.  I'm not so sure the Spurs should even be favored here.

Oklahoma City is 15-5 ATS off a close loss by 3 points or less over the last three seasons.  The Thunder are 13-3 ATS in home games after playing a home game this year.  The Spurs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The home team is 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings.  Oklahoma City is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home meetings with San Antonio.  Take the Thunder Tuesday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on New Orleans Pelicans +4

The New Orleans Pelicans were 3.5 games out of the Western Conference's final playoff spot with less than two weeks to go.  After a string of stellar play where they've won four of their last five, they are now just 0.5 games back and hungry to get into the postseason.

Yes, they are playing the team with the best record in the NBA in the Golden State Warriors tonight, but this won't be the same Warriors team as it has been up to this point.  That's because Golden State literally has nothing to play for right now.

The Warriors have already clinched home-court advantage throughout the playoffs.  They own the No. 1 seed in the West, and they also would have home court if they made the NBA Finals and had to play the No. 1 seed from the East in Atlanta.  I just don't trust them to show up over these final five games, especially tonight.

New Orleans is 16-5 ATS off a road loss this season.  The Pelicans are 23-11 ATS as an underdog this season.  New Orleans is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Pelicans are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Bet the Pelicans Tuesday.

20* Wisconsin/Duke Championship Game No-Brainer on Wisconsin -1

The Wisconsin Badgers have showed a ton of guts in their last two games in erasing second-half deficits to beat two of the best teams in college basketball in Arizona and Kentucky.  Their veteran leadership has been huge for them down the stretch.

I'll take these veteran Badgers over the young Duke Blue Devils in the Championship Game.  Sam Dekker has been out of this world clutch for Wisconsin, and Frank Kaminsky is showing why he's the Player of the Year in College Basketball.

While the Badgers had a tough road to get here, the Blue Devils had a very easy path in comparison.  Their last two games have come against Gonzaga and No. 7 Michigan State, which was fortunate just to make the Final Four.  This major step up in competition will be too much for Duke tonight.

Wisconsin is 6-0 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 6 points or less over the last two seasons.  The Badgers are 6-0 ATS in road games revenging a home loss to an opponent over the last two years.  Wisconsin is 45-22-1 ATS in its last 68 non-conference games.  The Badgers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 vs. ACC foes.  Bet Wisconsin Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Heat/Pacers UNDER 190

Both the Miami Heat (34-42) and Indiana Pacers (33-43) are on the outside looking in right now when it comes to making the playoffs.  The Heat are in 9th place just 1.5 games back of Boston, while the Pacers are in a tied for 10th just 1.5 games behind Boston.

It's safe to say that both teams will be laying it all on the line tonight to try and get a win.  What that means is that the defensive intensity will be at an all-time high this season for both teams, which I believe will lead to a defensive battle and low-scoring affair.

Two of three meetings between these teams this season have been extremely low-scoring.  They combined for 156 points in their first meeting back on November 12th, and 176 points in their most recent clash on January 23rd.  Yes, they did have a 201-point outing in between, but they are still only averaging 177.7 combined points per game this season.  That's roughly 13 points less than tonight's posted total of 190.

Miami is 12-1 UNDER when playing against a losing team with a winning percentage of 40% of 49% this season.  Indiana is 11-3 UNDER in home games where the total is between 190 and 194.5 points this season.  The UNDER is 13-3 in Heat last 16 Sunday games.  The UNDER is 21-7 in Heat last 28 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Line Mistake GAME OF THE MONTH on Brooklyn Nets +8.5

What do the Atlanta Hawks have to play for at this point?  They have already wrapped up the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference.  They aren't catching Golden State for the No. 1 overall seed between the two conferences.  The answer is that they have nothing to play for.  Yet, the Hawks are still favored by 8.5 points tonight against a Brooklyn Nets team that has everything to play for. 

It's no wonder the Hawks have struggled here of late.  They are just 3-5 in their last eight games overall, which includes a 19-point loss to Golden State, a 19-point loss to San Antonio, a 15-point loss to Charlotte and a 10-point loss to Detroit.  If that's not evidence that the Hawks aren't focused right now then I don't know what is.

The Nets have gone 6-0 in their last six games overall and are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  Yet, that run only has them in 7th place in the Eastern Conference, just 1.5 games ahead of 9th-place Boston.  The Nets not only are fighting for a playoff spot, but they also have visions of catching No. 6 seed Milwaukee, which they trail by 2.5 games.  That would allow them to avoid Cleveland or Atlanta in the first round.

I get that Atlanta has had 3 days off in between games, while Brooklyn will be playing 4 games in 5 days, but I believe the motivation in this game trumps the rest factor.  The Nets are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Brooklyn is 6-0 in its last six games.  These three trends combine for a 19-1 system backing Brooklyn.  Bet the Nets Saturday.

25* Final Four GAME OF THE YEAR on Duke -5

Duke (33-4) has been the most impressive team in the NCAA Tournament up to this point. It has yet to be really tested as all four of its games were pretty much decided with 10 minutes to go. It beat Robert Morris by 29 and San Diego State by 19 in the first two rounds to get things started.

Sure, it only beat Utah 63-57 in the Sweet 16, but that game wasn’t as close as the final score would indicate. The Blue Devils led by 15 with under 10 minutes to go before a mini-rally by the Utes made the final score appear close. They then put together their most impressive performance of the tournament yet with a 66-52 thrashing of Gonzaga in the Elite 8.

While the Blue Devils are known for being one of the best offensive teams in the country, it’s their defense that has carried them thus far. They are giving up just 53.5 points per game in the big dance. They held Robert Morris, San Diego State and Utah all to below 37% shooting, and then Gonzaga to 44%.

There's no question that Michigan State's run to the Final Four has been remarkable.  However, despite being a No. 7 seed, it has actually been favored in three of the four games it has played.  The only upset win came against Virginia in the Round of 32.  I look at that as a key indicator that the Spartans have had a very easy path to the Final Four.

I also look at Michigan State's results and see that it easily could have lost all four games it played.  It only beat Georgia by 7, Virginia by 6, Oklahoma by 4, and it needed overtime to get by Louisville by 7.  I believe that the Spartans' luck will run out this weekend against the best team they have played by far.

Duke is 16-1 in its last 17 games overall with six of its last eight victories coming by 12 points or more. Each of its last nine wins have come by at least 5 points. The Blue Devils are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall. Duke is 10-0 ATS when playing on Saturday this season.

Mike Krzyzewski is 8-1 against Tom Izzo in his career with all eight victories coming by 5 points or more. That includes an 81-71 victory over the Spartans earlier this season on November 18th. The Blue Devils also beat the Spartans 71-61 two years ago in the NCAA Tournament.  The talent gap between these teams has been hugely in Duke's favor in the past, and it is once again this year as freshmen Jahlil Okafor, Justise Winslow and Tyus Jones will prove to be too much.  Bet Duke Saturday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pistons/Bulls UNDER 197

The Chicago Bulls are fighting for home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs.  They will be locked in defensively tonight as they take on the Detroit Pistons, who are missing their best player in Greg Monroe.

The Bulls certainly don't play with much urgency on offense, and neither do the Pistons.  In fact, the Bulls rank 23rd in the NBA in pace at 95.3 possessions per game.  The Pistons are just ahead of them at 22nd, averaging 95.4 possessions per game.  These numbers show that this game is likely to be played in the half court at a slow pace.

Nine of the last 10 meetings in this series have seen less than 200 combined points, and seven of those have seen 193 or fewer combined points.  The Bulls and Pistons have averaged 187.0 combined points in their last 10 meetings, which is 10 points less than tonight's posted total of 197.

Detroit is 11-2 to the UNDER in road games after playing a game as a road underdog this season.  Chicago is 11-2 to the UNDER when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this season.  The UNDER is 9-4 in Pistons last 13 road games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets -2.5

The Brooklyn Nets have saved their best basketball for last, which is fitting considering they have been fighting for their lives to make the playoffs.  They are 5-0 in their last five games overall and currently sit in the No. 7 spot in the East, but only a half-game ahead of both No. 8 Boston and No. 9 Miami.  They still have a lot of work to do.

Brook Lopez is averaging 26.9 points, 9.3 rebounds and shooting 61.7 percent during a 7-1 surge for Brooklyn.  Deron Williams had his best game with 26 points, seven assists and seven boards in a win over the Knicks last time out.

The Toronto Raptors are overvalued due to winning three straight coming in, but those three wins have come against the Lakers, Rockets and Timberwolves.  They remain without their best player in Kyle Lowry (back), and I don't believe they stand much of a change against the surging Nets without him.  The Raptors are 8-13 in their last 21 games overall.

Toronto is 9-18 ATS off a win by 10 points or more this season.  Brooklyn is 13-4 ATS versus up-tempo teams that average 83 or more shots per game in the second half of the season this season.  The Raptors are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  Toronto is 9-20-1 ATS in its last 30 games playing on 1 days rest.  Take the Nets Friday.

20* Stanford/Miami NIT Championship No-Brainer on Miami +2

The ACC showed very well for itself in the NCAA Tournament.  It is doing so in the NIT as well thanks to Miami, which just keeps finding ways to win as its mental makeup couldn't be much stronger with the path it has taken to get here.

The Hurricanes came back from a big deficit against Richmond to win 63-61 on the road, and then topped Temple 60-57 in the semifinals after trailing for most of the way.  They have now won seven of their last eight games overall heading into the Championship Game.

Stanford has had the easier path since it played its first three games at home before beating Old Dominion 67-60 in the semifinals. What I love about this matchup is that the Hurricanes should continue to have a huge rebounding advantage.  They have outrebounded each of their last eight opponents coming in.

Miami is a perfect 7-0 ATS in road games after two straight games where they had five or less steals this season.  The hurricanes are 6-0 ATS in road games off two straight games where they forced 11 or fewer turnovers this year.  The Cardinal are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. ACC opponents.  These three trends combine for a 17-0 system backing the Hurricanes.  Bet Miami Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Dallas Mavericks -2

The Dallas Mavericks are still looking to clinch a playoff spot in the Western Conference.  Until they do, they will be laying it all on the line with the hopes of getting some rest in the final few games of the season.

The Mavericks are coming off a huge 135-131 win at Oklahoma City last night.  While they will now be playing the second of a back-to-back, they had two days off prior to that game against the Thunder, so it should not affect them too much.

Houston will also be playing the second of a back-to-back after its 115-111 home win over Sacramento yesterday.  However, it will be a tired team considering this will also be its 4th game in 5 days.  That's about as tough a situation as there is in the NBA, especially this late in the season.

Dallas is 43-23 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons.  The Mavericks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.  The Rockets are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 0 days rest.  The home team is 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Houston is 1-6 ATS in its last seven trips to Dallas.  Take the Mavericks Thursday.

15* Clippers/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland -3

The Portland Trail Blazers (48-25) are playing very well right now.  They currently sit in the No. 4 spot in the Western Conference and have a chance of moving up to the No. 2 seed.  That motivation has led to a 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS run in their last four games overall.

The Los Angeles Clippers (49-26) are in a similar position, and they are playing well right now too.  They have gone 7-1 in their last eight games overall, but only two of those wins came against teams with winning records, and both were at home against Washington and New Orleans.

This is a very tough spot for the Clippers, who controlled most of the game last night before giving away to the Warriors in a 106-110 home loss.  Now, they'll be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  I believe this is a hangover spot for them after losing to the best team in the NBA as well.

Portland is 30-7 SU at home this season.  The home team has won seven of the last nine meetings in this series.  The Blazers are 27-8 SU in their last 35 home meetings with the Clippers.  Roll with the Blazers Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -2

The Oklahoma City Thunder (42-32) are just 2.5 games ahead of the New Orleans Pelicans for the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference.  They will obviously be playing with a lot of urgency as a result.

The Dallas Mavericks (45-29) have not been playing with a sense of urgency at all.  They are pretty much locked into the No. 7 seed as they are three games behind San Antonio and three ahead of Oklahoma City.  That's not a bad spot to be in considering Memphis is the No. 2 seed right now.

The Thunder have gone 5-2 in their last seven games overall with their only losses coming on the road to San Antonio and Utah.  They have really taken care of business at home here of late, going 6-0 in their last six home games with five of those victories coming by 8 points or more.

The Mavs are 1-4 in their last five games.  They are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games.  This team just has been way out of sync and cannot be trusted only catching two points here tonight.  Dallas is 0-10 ATS in road games versus up-tempo teams that average 83-plus shots per game in the second half of the season this year.  Take the Thunder Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bulls/Bucks UNDER 192.5

The oddsmakers have set the bar too high in this contest between the Chicago Bulls and Milwaukee Bucks.  Both teams have a lot to play for right now, which I believe will lead to max effort defensively from these already solid defensive teams.

Milwaukee is tied for 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency at 99.8 points per 100 possessions allowed.  But the Bucks are not very good on the other end, ranking 24th in offensive efficiency at 100.4 points per 100 possessions.  Neither team really pushed the pace.  The Bulls rank 23rd in pace while the Bucks are 14th.

What really stood out to me about this game is the recent history between these teams.  The Bucks and Bulls have combined for 192 or fewer points in each of their last eight meetings, making for a perfect 8-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set of 192.5.

They have combined for 158, 182, 181, 192, 153, 181, 152 and 192 points in their last eight meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 173.9 points per game, which is roughly 19 points less than tonight's posted total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* Warriors/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -2

The Golden State Warriors (60-13) already clinched the Pacific Division title, and they locked up the top seed in the West while setting a franchise record for victories in Saturday's 108-95 win at Milwaukee.  If this isn't a letdown spot for them, than I don't know what is.

Now they have to face a Los Angeles Clippers (49-25) team that has been on a roll since Blake Griffin returned from a 15-game absence.  They have gone 7-0 in thier last seven games overall with an average margin of victory of 14.9 points per game.  They are now within one game of third-place Memphis.

Home-court advantage has been absolutely huge in this series.  The home team has won seven straight meetings between the Clippers and Warriors.  The Clippers are 4-0 in their last four and 11-3 in their last 14 home meetings with Golden State as well.

Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA CLIPPERS) - in a game involving two poor defensive teams (98-102 PPG), after a combined score of 205 points or more two straight games are 42-16 (72.4%) ATS since 1996.  The Clippers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Take the Clippers Tuesday.

20* NIT Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Temple -1.5

The Temple Owls (26-10) have been playing like an NCAA Tournament team ever since they got healthy midseason.  Jesse Morgan (12.1 ppg, 3.2 rpg) missed 10 games early on, but when he returned, the Owls have really been hitting all cylinders since.

Temple has gone 14-3 in its last 17 games overall.  All three of its losses came on the road to SMU (twice) and Tulsa, which are arguably the two best teams in the AAC.  I've really been impressed with the ease in which the Owls have reached the semifinals of the NIT.

After a 73-67 win over a pesky Bucknell team, the Owls have rolled George Washington (90-77) and Louisiana Tech (77-59) to get here.  Morgan came up huge in both wins, scoring 20 points in only 23 minutes against George Washington and 17 points in 24 minutes against Louisiana Tech.

Miami (24-12) is a team that has simply won a ton of close games all season and is not as good as its record would indicate.  It has won 10 games by 5 points or less, and all three of its wins in the NIT have come by 7 points or fewer.  It beat NC Central (75-71) at home, Alabama (73-66) at home, and Richmond (63-61) on the road.

Temple is 10-3 ATS off a win by 10 points or more this season.  The Owls are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games following a S.U. win.  Bet Temple Tuesday.

20* Suns/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix +8.5

The Phoenix Suns (38-36) suffered a big loss last night to the Oklahoma City Thunder.  They now trail the Thunder by four games in the Western Conference playoff race for the No. 8 seed.  It's safe to say that they will be needing to almost win out to make the playoffs now.

That also means that the Suns won't be lacking any motivation the rest of the way.  That's especially the case tonight as the Suns will be looking for revenge from an 81-87 home loss to the Portland Trail Blazers just three days ago on Friday, March 27th.

The Blazers come into this game overvalued due to having won three straight.  Well, all three wins came by 6 points or less, and they came against Utah, Phoenix and Denver.  This team had lost five straight prior to this brief winning streak, so they aren't playing all that well right now and should not be 8.5-point favorites here.

The Suns are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings, including 4-1 ATS in the last four trips to Portland.  Phoenix is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games.  The Suns are 5-0 ATS in their last five games when playing on 0 days' rest.  Phoenix is 13-4 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last two seasons.  The Suns are 48-25 ATS in their last 73 road games.  Bet the Suns Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Night Line Mistake on Memphis Grizzlies +8

The value on the Memphis Grizzlies could not be any better than it is right now, while there is no value in backing the San Antonio Spurs right now.  As a result, I believe this line has been inflated, and I have no other choice but to side with the road underdog Grizzlies tonight.

Memphis is coming off back-to-back blowout losses to Cleveland (89-111) and Golden State (84-107).  The betting public now wants nothing to do with the Grizzlies.  The Spurs have gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  The betting public wants everything to do with them right now because of it.

Four of the last five meetings in this series have been decided by 8 points or less.  In fact, four of the last 10 meetings have actually gone to overtime as this has been a very closely-contested rivalry.  I look for more of the same tonight when these two square off in San Antonio.

Memphis is 81-54 ATS against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons.  The Grizzlies are 52-32 ATS versus good shooting teams that make 46% or more of their shots over the last three years.  The Spurs are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 vs. NBA Southwest division opponents.  The Grizzlies are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Take Memphis Sunday.

20* Gonzaga/Duke Elite 8 No-Brainer on Gonzaga +3

The Gonzaga Bulldogs are the real deal this season.  This is easily the best team that Mark Few has ever had.  They are 35-2 on the season with one of their losses coming in overtime on the road at Arizona, which is a very tough place to play.

The Bulldogs have been rolling through the NCAA Tournament thus far with three straight double-digit victories over NDSU (86-76), Iowa (87-68) and UCLA (74-62).  Some of their best players even had an off night as they shot 40.3% from the floor against the Bruins, but they still won by 12 points.

I believe Gonzaga is a better team than Duke and it should not be the underdog.  The Blue Devils have also had a pair of blowout wins over Robert Morris (85-56) and San Diego State (68-49), but they had to hold on late to beat Utah (63-57) last time out.  I just believe that the Bulldogs have more balance than the Blue Devils do.  The Bulldogs have the size inside to disrupt Jahlil Okafor just as Utah did.

Gonzaga ia 11-1 ATS in road games vs. top caliber teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game over the last three seasons.  The Bulldogs are 20-7-2 ATS in their last 29 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet Gonzaga Sunday.

25* NCAA Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Notre Dame +11

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish entered the NCAA Tournament playing their best basketball of the season.  That has clearly carried over into the big dance as well as they've won three straight games, including an impressive 81-70 victory over Wichita State last round, to reach the Elite 8.

The Fighting Irish have now won eight straight coming into this game, which includes wins against ranked teams in then-No. 16 Louisville (71-59), then-No. 2 Duke (74-64) and then-No. 19 North Carolina (90-82).  So, they have obviously beaten some very good teams during this streak.

Notre Dame players are clearly playing for head coach Mike Brey right now.  He revealed to his players only after a 67-64 (OT) win over Butler in the Round of 32 that he lost his mother earlier that day.  The players responded in a big way with that 11-point win over Wichita State, and I look for them to use that as extra motivation for them against Kentucky in the Elite 8.

I believe Kentucky comes into this game way overvalued due to its 78-39 beat down of West Virginia in the Sweet 16.  Looking back, that was a terrible matchup for the Mountaineers.  To hang with Kentucky you have to be a good 3-point shooting team, and the Mountaineers are one of the worst in the tournament.

Notre Dame, on the other hand, is an elite offensive team that can hit the 3-pointer with the best of them.  It is shooting 52% overall in the tournament and 38% from 3-point range.  It scores 78.3 points per game on the season on 51.1% shooting overall and 39.2% from beyond the arc.  The Fighting Irish have what it takes to go basket for basket with the Wildcats.  They spread you out with four 3-point shooters on the court at all times, which will nullify Kentucky's height advantage inside defensively.

The Fighting Irish are 11-1 ATS in road games versus excellent teams that shoot 45% or better and allow 42% or worse over the last two seasons.  The Wildcats are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 vs. ACC opponents.  Bet Notre Dame Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Knicks/Bulls UNDER 189

The Chicago Bulls host the New York Knicks tonight in what I fully expect to be a defensive battle.  The Knicks have been one of the top-two worst offensive team in the league this season, and the Bulls are still playing without Derrick Rose.

New York averages just 91.9 points per game on the season, including a woeful 84.8 points in its last five games overall.  It is extremely depleted right now, playing with guys that wouldn't make the roster on most teams.

New York ranks 29th in the NBA in offensive efficiency.  It also plays at a deliberate pace, ranking 28th at 93.5 possessions per game.  Chicago likes to play a half-court game as well.  It ranks 23rd in pace at 95.3 possessions per contest.

The Knicks are a perfect 8-0 to the UNDER revenging two straight losses where opponent scored 100 or more points this season.  It is combining with its opponents for 176.5 points per game in this spot, which is roughly 13 points less than tonight's posted total of 189.  Chicago is 11-1 to the UNDER in home games versus terrible teams who are outscored by 6-plus points per game over the last three seasons.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Arizona/Wisconsin Elite 8 No-Brainer on Arizona -1

The Arizona Wildcats have waited an entire year for the opportunity at revenge against Wisconsin.  They lost in the Elite 8 to the Badgers last year by a final of 63-64 (OT), and that has left a sour taste in their mouth all offseason and throughout the year.  I believe that extra motivation will push them over the top as they get revenge in the Elite 8 exactly one year later.

Plus, I believe the Wildcats are the better team as well.  They are 34-3 on the season with their three losses coming by a combined 9 points.  That's how close they are to being 37-0 right alongside Kentucky.  They have won 14 in a row coming into this one with all 14 wins coming by 6 points or more, and 11 of those 14 coming by double-digits.

Wisconsin has been very vulnerable up to this point in the tournament.  It only beat Coastal Carolina by 14 as 20.5-point favorites while giving up 48.3% shooting.  It only beat Oregon by 7 as 12.5-point favorites while allowing Joseph Young to score 30 points.  It then was fortunate to beat UNC by 7 last time out as this was a 1-point game in the final minute.

Arizona is 9-1 ATS versus bad pressure defensive teams that force 12 or less turnovers per game after 15-plus games this season. The Wildcats are 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. Big Ten opponents.  Arizona is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 games overall.  Wisconsin is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS win.  Take Arizona Saturday.

15* NBA Western Conference No-Brainer on Dallas Mavericks +9.5

This number has been inflated for a couple of reasons.  The first is that the Spurs are playing well right now, having gone 11-3 SU & 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall, so they are clearly overvalued due to this run of solid play.  That includes a 39-point win over Oklahoma City last time out, but the Thunder were playing the second of a back-to-back and shorthanded.

The second is that they'll be out for revenge from a 94-101 loss at Dallas on Tuesday.  The Spurs played the next night against the Thunder in their 39-point win, so they will have only had one day off in between games.  The Mavericks haven't played since that 7-point win over the Spurs, so they have had two days off and will be well-rested and ready to go.

Dallas has simply had San Antonio's number in recent meetings as this has proven to be an excellent matchup for the Mavericks.  They are 5-5 SU & a blistering 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Spurs dating back to their playoff series this past postseason, which sent the full seven games.

The Mavericks are 22-9 ATS in road games after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last three seasons .  Dallas is 319-251 ATS as an underdog since 1996.  The underdog is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  Dallas is 5-1 ATS in its last six trips to San Antonio.  Roll with the Mavericks Friday.

15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Memphis Grizzlies +4

The Golden State Warriors (58-13) beat the Portland Trail Blazers on Wednesday to capture their first Pacific Division title since 1975-76.  After that huge milestone, I look for the Warriors to take their foot off the gas tonight and to suffer a bit of a letdown.

After all, the Warriors lead second-place Memphis (50-22) by 8.5 games for the No. 1 seed in the West.  They also lead Atlanta by four games for home-court advantage throughout.  They really don't have a whole lot to play for at this point in the season.

The Grizzlies, meanwhile, have a lot to play for right now.  They only lead Houston by 1.5 games for the No. 2 seed.  They want that No. 2 spot so they can have home-court advantage through the first two rounds of the playoffs, so motivation is not an issue for them.

The Warriors are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games.  Memphis is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  The Grizzlies are 32-15-1 ATS in their last 48 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Memphis is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Take the Grizzlies Friday.

25* Sweet 16 GAME OF THE YEAR on NC State +3

You would have to say that NC State (22-13, 10-8 ACC) has been the surprise of the tournament up to this point. It was very fortunate to survive in a 66-65 win over LSU in the Round of 64. The Tigers missed each of their last six free throw attempts to allow the Wolfpack to escape with a 16-point come-from-behind victory. It was a different story against No. 1 Villanova in the Round of 32.

The Wolfpack controlled the game most of the way against the Wildcats and eventually held on for a 71-68 victory. Four different NC State played scored in double figures, led by Trevor Lacey’s 17 points, six rebounds and four assists. Cat Barber added 13 points, while Abdul-Malik Abu (13 points, 12 rebounds) and Lennard Freeman (11 points, 12 rebounds) controlled the paint all game.

NC State has really been playing well for quite some time now.  It is 8-2 in its last 10 games overall.  That includes a 74-65 win at then-No. 9 Louisville on February 14th as 10.5-point underdogs as the Cardinals shot just 32.8%, so this will be a rematch.  It also won at then-No. 15 North Carolina 58-46 on February 24th.  It has beaten Duke within the conference as well.  Throw in that win over Villanova, and the Wolfpack are proving they can play with anyone.

Louisville has had a relatively easy path to get here.  It barely survived in a 57-55 victory over UC-Irvine in the opener.  It then played a Northern Iowa team that was probably overvalued due to its record in the last round, winning that game 66-53.  UNI didn't have the guards that could deal with Louisville's press, but this is a much tougher matchup for the Cardinals because the Wolfpack do have the guards to deal with it.  They also have Abu and Freeman inside who can counter Montrezl Harrell.

The Wolfpack are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 neutral site games. NC State is 33-16-2 ATS in its last 51 vs. ACC opponents. The Wolfpack are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS win.  NC State is 8-1 ATS in road games versus good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game after 15-plus games over the last two seasons.  Louisville is 9-17 ATS as a favorite this season.  Thee Cardinals are 3-10 ATS off a win by 10 points or more this year.  Bet NC State Friday.

20* Sweet 16 Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona -10.5

The Arizona Wildcats are proving in the NCAA Tournament that they were deserving of a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.  They have been one of the most impressive teams thus far in the big dance, and I look for them to continue their dominance in the Sweet 16 against Xavier.

After all, Arizona (33-3) is three losses by a combined 9 points away from being 36-0 right now right alongside Kentucky.  They beat Texas Southern (93-72) in the opening round, which is the same Texas Southern team that has wins over Michigan State and Kansas State this season.

In the Round of 32, the Wildcats put together one of their most impressive performances of the season.  They beat Ohio State 73-58 despite shooting just 36.5% from the field.  They did so by limiting the Buckeyes to just 3 second-chance points for the entire game while rebounding 78 percent of their misses.

Xavier couldn't have had an easier path to the Sweet 16, and therefore it is overvalued coming into this game.  It got to play an Ole Miss team that was tired after staging a huge comeback two days earlier against BYU in the opener.  Then, it got lucky and had Georgia State upset No. 3 Baylor.  The Musketeers would only beat Georgia State 75-67 despite shooting 67.6 percent from the floor, which was the third-best mark in the NCAA Tournament over the past 15 years.

Xavier has played some good teams this season, but it has yet to face a team the quality of Arizona.  The only thing close has been Villanova, and the Musketeers have been blown out three times by the Wildcats.  They lost 88-75 at Villanova, 78-66 at home against the Wildcats, and 69-52 in the Big East Tournament to Villanova.

Arizona is 9-1 ATS versus teams who average 6 or less steals per game after 15-plus games this season.  The Wildcats are 18-8 ATS as a favorite of 10 points or more this season.  Arizona is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 games overall.  The Wildcats are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Bet Arizona Thursday.

15* Sweet 16 Thursday Night Line Mistake on West Virginia +13.5

Bobby Huggins finds himself back in the Sweet 16 with a West Virginia team that is hitting on all cylinders right now.  What I love about the Musketeers is that they play a style of basketball that Kentucky isn't used to, and thus they have an excellent chance of hanging around in this game.

The Mountaineers beat Buffalo 68-62 before beating down Maryland 69-59.  They forced 23 turnovers and scored 26 points off of them in Sunday's win over Maryland.  The Terrapins only managed four points against their press in the second half.  They also forced turnovers on 26 percent of Buffalo's possessions in the opener.

Kentucky showed it was vulnerable as Cincinnati played it tough for the first 25 minutes.  The Wildcats did eventually pull away for a 64-51 victory, but they fell to 0-2 ATS in the NCAA Tournament.  They beat Hampton by 23 as 34.5-point favorites and Cincinnati by 13 as 16-point favorites.  Once again, I believe the Wildcats are overvalued here as 13.5-point favorites over WVU.

West Virginia is 19-5 ATS in its last 24 NCAA Tournament games.  The Mountaineers are 25-8 ATS in their last 33 post-season tournament games.  West Virginia is 5-0 ATS in its last five non-conference games.  Kentucky is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four NCAA Tournament games.  The Wildcats are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 Thursday games.  Take West Virginia Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Pacers/Wizards UNDER 192

Both the Indiana Pacers & Washington Wizards have a lot to play for tonight, thus I believe the defensive intensity will be very high in this game.  Indiana is one game out of the No. 8 spot in the Eastern Conference, while Washington is two games back of Toronto for the No. 4 seed and home-court advantage in the first round.

Both the Pacers and Wizards play at below-average paces this season.  Washington ranks 18th in the NBA in pace at 95.9 possessions per game, while Indiana ranks 20th at 95.5 per contest.  Indiana ranks 25th in offensive efficiency at 100.1 points per 100 possessions.  Washington ranks 5th in defensive efficiency at 100.3 possessions per game, while Indiana ranks 10th at 101.1 per contest.

What really stands out to me about this game is the recent head-to-head history.  The Wizards & Pacers have combined for 190 or fewer points in seven straight meetings, and 13 of the last 14 meetings overall.  They have combined for 187, 168, 173, 181, 187, 148 and 168 points in the last seven meetings at the end of regulation.  That's an average of 173.1 combined points per game, which is roughly 19 points less than tonight's posted total of 192.

Indiana is 14-4 to the UNDER off two or more consecutive overs this season.  Washington is 15-5 to the UNDER when playing its 3rd game in 4 days this season.  The Wizards are 46-23 to the UNDER after allowing 105 points or more in three straight games since 1996.  The UNDER is 30-13-2 in Wizards last 45 games playing on 1 days rest.  Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Bulls/Raptors ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on UNDER 199.5

The Chicago Bulls and Toronto Raptors are battling for positioning in the Eastern Conference playoffs.  At 43-29 on the season, the Bulls lead the Raptors by 1/2-game for the No. 3 seed in the East.  Both teams could move up to No. 2, while both could also slip to No. 5.  Due to their standing, the defensive intensity in this game will be very high.

The Bulls have recently returned their top defender in Jimmy Butler from a 12-game absence.  He was rusty in his first game back, shooting 6-for-20 from the floor, but his defense helped the Bulls beat the Hornets 98-86 at home last time out.  The Bulls had gone over the total in eight straight prior to that game, and the total was inflated as a result.  It is inflated once again tonight.

Toronto is without its best player in Kyle Lowry, who is listed as doubtful Wednesday with a back injury.  He returned against the Pistons last night after missing two games with back spasms, but left in the second quarter and did not return.

Lowry missed last week's matchup with the Bulls after averaging 27.0 points in the previous two meetings.  The Bulls won that game 108-92 at home for 200 combined points on March 20th.  Now, less than a week later, these teams meet again.  They are obviously very familiar with one another now as this will be their 4th meeting of the season.  Familiarity breeds low-scoring games.

The Bulls and Raptors have combined for 200 or fewer points at the end of regulation in nine of the last 10 meetings.  The UNDER is 20-8 in Bulls last 28 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The UNDER is 11-2 in Raptors last 13 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Los Angeles Lakers +10.5

The Los Angeles Lakers have quietly been playing their best basketball of the season over the past month in spite of their 18-50 record.  As a result, they have been undervalued time and time again because of their poor record.

Indeed, the Lakers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  You have to go all the way back to February 11th to find the last time that they lost a game by more than 9 points.  They have gone 15 games without losing by more than 9 points, which makes for a perfect 15-0 system backing the Lakers pertaining to tonight's 10.5-point spread.

This is a very tough spot for the Oklahoma City Thunder.  They are playing without Kevin Durant and Serge Ibaka.  They have a huge game coming up tomorrow night against the San Antonio Spurs, and it's only human nature for them to be looking ahead to that game and overlooking the Lakers.

The Thunder have only won two of their last 13 games by more than 9 points, making for an 11-2 system backing the Lakers pertaining to this 10.5-point spread.  Los Angeles has played Oklahoma City very tough in the last two meetings, losing 103-104 and 101-108.  I look for this one to go right down to the wire as well.

Los Angeles is 14-4 ATS when playing only its 2nd game in 5 days this season.  Oklahoma City is 5-14 ATS when playing 8 or more games in 14 games this year.  The Lakers are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games.  Take the Lakers Tuesday.

20* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Heat/Bucks UNDER 194

The Milwaukee Bucks (34-36) and Miami Heat (32-37) are currently in the 6th and 7th spots in the Eastern Conference, respectively. Both are fighting to make the playoffs right now, so the defensive intensity will be there tonight, which is a big reason I like the UNDER in this game.

The Bucks are one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season because of their work at the defensive end.  They rank 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency, but just 24th in offensive efficiency.  With those numbers, it's no surprise that they have gone 39-31 to the UNDER in all games this season.

The Heat rank just 18th in offensive efficiency this season.  They have been decent defensively, giving up an average of 97.0 points per game this year.  But what stands out to me is that Miami plays at one of the slowest paces in the NBA.  Indeed, it ranks 29th in pace at 93.1 possessions per game.  It is 40-29 to the UNDER in all games this year.

Miami is 10-1 to the UNDER when playing against a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) this season.  The Heat are 22-6 to the UNDER off a non-conference game this season.  The UNDER is 21-9 in Heat last 30 road games.  The UNDER is 17-7 in Bucks last 24 vs. Eastern Conference.  The UNDER is 9-2-2 in the last 13 meetings, including 5-0-1 in the last six meetings in Milwaukee.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hornets/Bulls UNDER 191

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Charlotte Hornets and Chicago Bulls.  I'll take advantage and back the UNDER in what I believe will be a very low-scoring game tonight.  Both teams are fighting for playoff positioning, so the defensive intensity will be there.

Charlotte ranks 7th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, while Chicago ranks 13th.  Both teams play at deliberate paces as well.  Chicago ranks 23rd in the league in pace at 95.4 possessions per game, while Charlotte ranks 21st at 95.5 possessions per contest.

What really has this total inflated is the fact that Chicago has gone over the total in eight consecutive games coming in.  That has forced the books to set this number higher than it should be.  Charlotte ranks just 28th in offensive efficiency this season.

Plays on the UNDER on any team (CHARLOTTE) - after one or more consecutive overs against opponent after 5 or more consecutive overs are 100-58 (63.3%) over the last five seasons.  The UNDER is 10-4 in Hornets last 14 road games.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Hornets last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The UNDER is 9-3-1 in the last 12 meetings, and 4-1-1 in the last six meetings in Chicago.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Evansville -2

The Evansville Purple Aces should be much heavier favorites today against the Eastern Illinois Panthers.  It's amazing that they even have to play this game on the road considering they are the better team, but that won't be a big deal since they are the better team, and now they're showing great value as only 2-point favorites.

Evansville is now 20-12 on the season following its 82-77 home victory over a pesky IUPU-Fort Wayne team in the opening round of the CIT.  This is a Purple Aces team that only lost twice in non-conference play, and both came by exactly two points against very good Green Bay and Murray State teams.  They also beat Northern Iowa, which has only lost four times all season.

Eastern Illinois is just 18-14 on the season.  It did upset Oakland 97-91 in the opening round of the CIT, but that effort has it overvalued coming in.  The Panthers lost by 33 to Belmont in the Ohio Valley Tournament.  They went just 5-6 in non-conference play, which includes an 11-point loss to Missouri State, a 22-point loss to Creighton, and a 25-point loss to NC Central.

The Panthers are 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Purple Aces are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.  The Panthers are 9-26-1 ATS in their last 36 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Evansville is 6-0 ATS off three straight games committing 14 or fewer turnovers this season.  Eastern Illinois is 0-6 ATS in home games after two straight games where they had five or less steals over the last two seasons.  Take Evansville Monday.

25* South Region GAME OF THE YEAR on Gonzaga -6

Gonzaga (33-2, 17-1 WCC) got more of a scare from North Dakota State in the first round than it would have liked. While it was never in real serious jeopardy, it simply could not deliver the knockout blow in an 86-76 victory. Kyle Wiltjer was brilliant, connecting on 8-of-12 from the field for 23 points. Kevin Pangos added 18 points, including 4-of-9 from 3-point range, in the win.

The Bulldogs probably still feel like they got snubbed from a No. 1 seed. This is easily the best team that head coach Mark Few has ever had. They proved they were for real back in December when they took Arizona to overtime on the road. They also beat SMU by 16, Georgia by 12, St. John’s by 7, Washington State by 15 and UCLA by 13 out of conference. They outscore the opposition by an average of 18.0 points per game.

Iowa put together perhaps the  most impressive performance of the tournament thus far in its 83-52 beat down of Davidson.  Many had picked the Wildcats to upset the Hawkeyes, but in the end, this was a total mismatch.  The Hawkeyes had a huge height advantage and they capitalized on it.  It turned out to be just a terrible matchup for the Wildcats.

This line is clearly an overreaction from Iowa blowing Davidson out and Gonzaga failing to cover in a 10-point win over North Dakota State. This line would have been set much closer to 10 had these teams played before the Round of 64 results. That’s why I believe there is value with the Zags, who will have a huge home-court advantage with this game being played in Seattle.

Gonzaga is 18-9 ATS when playing against a good team with a winning percentage from 60% to 80% over the last two seasons. The Bulldogs are 18-7 ATS when playing on one or less days’ rest over the last two years. Gonzaga is 25-10-2 ATS in its last 37 games following an ATS loss.  Iowa is 0-8 ATS versus good rebounding teams that outrebound their opponents by 4-plus boards per game after 15-plus games over the last two seasons.  The Hawkeyes won't have the height advantage they had against Davidson.  Bet Gonzaga.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Heat/Thunder UNDER 214.5

Both the Miami Heat and Oklahoma City Thunder are fighting for playoff spots.  As a result, their defensive intensity will be at a high level, and I believe the books have set the bar too high in listing this total at 214.5.

When looking at the recent history int his series, it's easy to see that this number has been inflated.  Miami and Oklahoma City have combined for 180, 184, 207, 210 and 200 points in their last five meetings, respectively.  That's an average combined score of 196.2 points per game, which is roughly 18 points less than today's posted total of 214.5.

Miami is 27-12 UNDER versus good offensive teams that score 99 or more points per game this season.  The UNDER is 10-1 in Miami's last 11 Sunday games.  The UNDER is 20-9 in Heat's last 29 road games.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Arkansas +4.5

The Arkansas Razorbacks are a team I'm very big on heading into the NCAA Tournament.  I believe they are one of the biggest sleepers to make a deep run.  They survived against Wofford in the opener, and that will give them confidence that they can pull out another close one against UNC today.

This is a team that went 27-8 this season and was easily the second-best team in the SEC behind Kentucky.  Three of its eight losses have actually come to Kentucky, so it has been nearly unbeatable outside of the Wildcats.

Arkansas compiled many impressive non-conference wins, including a 30-point victory over Wake Forest, a 6-point win on the road at SMU, and a 14-point home win over Dayton.  It also beat fellow NCAA Tournament teams in Georgia (twice) and Ole Miss in conference action.

What I really like about the Razorbacks is that they play a style that works in the NCAA Tournament and is tough to prepare for.  They get up and down and they pressure you defensively, which can get the opposition out of sync and lead to big runs for the Razorbacks.  Head coach Mike Anderson is a disciple of Nolan Richardson, who led the Razorbacks to the NCAA Title in 1994.

North Carolina (25-11) has been inconsistent all season.  That showed again in a narrow 67-65 win over Harvard as 10-point favorites in the Round of 64.  I just don't believe this team should be laying points to the Razorbacks, who are the better squad in my opinion.

The Tar Heels are 0-6 ATS off a game where they made 55% or more of their shots this season.  UNC is 0-6 ATS off a close win by 3 points or less over the last three seasons.  The Tar Heels are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 NCAA Tournament games.  These three trends combine for a perfect 16-0 system backing the Razorbacks.  Take Arkansas Saturday.

20* Georgetown/Utah South Region No-Brainer on Georgetown +4.5

Georgetown (22-10, 12-6 Big East) put to rest all the talk that it couldn’t handle underdogs. D’Vauntes Smith-Rivera scored 25 points, Mikael Hopkins had 10 points and nine rebounds, and the Hoyas avoided another tournament upset by beating No. 13 Eastern Washington 84-74 Thursday night. They had lost four of their last five tournament games, and they found themselves down by seven in the first half, but they eventually stormed out to a 23-point lead before holding on late.

The Hoyas have all the pieces to make a deep run. Former UCLA problem child Josh Smith is a dominant post force, Smith-Rivera can do everything a lead guard must do, Hopkins is the heart of the Hoyas’ defense, Isaac Copeland is a versatile freshman with an NBA future, and Jabril Trawick strikes fear into the opposition.

Utah has been extremely vulnerable down the stretch since a 21-4 start.  It has lost four of its last eight games overall, and it barely survived in a 57-50 win over Stephen F. Austin on Thursday.  The Lumberjacks were within three points late, but the Utes iced it from the free throw line.  Now, they take a big step up in competition against the Hoyas tonight.

Remember, this is a Georgetown team that beat Villanova by 20 points earlier this season to hand the Wildcats one of their two losses. The Hoyas are 94-57 ATS in their last 151 non-conference games, including 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 against non-conference opponents.  Bet Georgetown Saturday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bulls/Pistons UNDER 194.5

The books have set the bar too high in this game between the Chicago Bulls and Detroit Pistons Saturday.  When you look at recent meetings between these teams, it's easy to see that this number has been inflated.

The Bulls and Pistons have combined for 193 or fewer points in seven of their last nine meetings.  They have combined for 191, 193, 206, 199, 167, 178, 184, 189 and 167 points in their last nine meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 186.0 combined points per game, which is roughly 9 points less than tonight's posted total of 194.5.

Now, you also have to factor in that both teams are without their top scorers.  Chicago is without leading scorer Jimmy Butler (20.2 ppg) and second-leading scorer Derrick Rose (18.4 ppg).  Detroit is expected to be without leading scorer Greg Monroe (16.0 ppg) and second-leading scorer Brandon Jennings (15.4 ppg).

Chicago is 8-1 to the UNDER in road games off a home win this season.  The Bulls are 11-1 to the UNDER after scoring 60 points or more in the first half of its last game over the last three seasons.  Chicago is 16-4 to the UNDER In road games off two or more consecutive wins over the last two years.  The UNDER is 11-4-1 in Pistons last 16 games overall.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Dayton/Providence Late-Night BAILOUT on Dayton +3

The Flyers earned an at-large bid into the NCAA Tournament this season with a 25-8 record overall and a 13-5 mark within the Atlantic 10 Conference. They felt like they should not have been forced to play in a First Four game, which is exactly what they had to do last year as well.

If you remember, the Flyers were a Cinderella team that managed to advance to the Elite 8. They brought back their top two players from that team in Jordan Sibert (16.5 ppg) and Dyshawn Pierre (12.7 ppg, 8.2 rpg), who have both played brilliantly all season in leading the Flyers back to the big dance.

Dayton trailed most of the way in its First Four game against Boise State, which was essentially a home game for the Flyers as it was played inside Dayton Arena. However, the Flyers got a game-winning 3-pointer from Sibert with 36 seconds left to play that proved to be the difference in a 56-55 victory over the Broncos. They improved to 16-7 ATS in their last 23 neutral site games.

The Flyers are 14-4 ATS in road games against good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game over the last two seasons.  Dayton is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 non-conference road games.  The Flyers are 22-11 ATS after having won two of their last three games over the last two years.  Providence is 16-31 ATS in its last 47 games after covering four of its last five against the spread.

Dayton had a real home-court advantage in the First Four game and prevailed in a tight one with Boise State. Jordan Sibert was in foul trouble, but when he was on the floor the Flyers were dangerous. Now, they’ll actually get to play in their home state again in Columbus, Ohio, which is another huge advantage. I look for them to feed off of the crowd and to pull the upset of Providence, which is one of the more overrated teams in the country.  Roll with Dayton Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -1.5

The Chicago Bulls are way undervalued right now due to all of their injuries.  I'll gladly take advantage and back them as 1.5-point home favorites today against the Toronto Raptors.  After all, injuries didn't stop them from thumping Indiana 103-86 last time out.

The Bulls will now be working on a ton of rest.  They will be playing only their 2nd game in 5 days, which will be a huge advantage for them considering their injuries right now.  The Bulls are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with the Raptors.

Toronto is dealing with a key injury of its own.  Kyle Lowry is questionable to play with an back injury, and he's the Raptors' best player.  They come in overvalued due to having won three of four, but their three wins came against Miami, Indiana and Minnesota.

Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TORONTO) - a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record, on Friday nights are 43-18 (70.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Raptors are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Bet the Bulls Friday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma -13

Oklahoma (22-10, 12-6 Big 12) finished in a tie for second place in the Big 12 this season, which was easily the strongest conference in the country. Veteran head coach Lon Krueger brought back a ton of talent from last year, and he added in Tashawn Thomas, a Houston transfer who provided the Sooners with a big who can score.

Without question, the Sooners have one of the best starting fives in the country. Buddy Hield (17.5 ppg, 5.5 rpg) is one of the best players in the land, but Isaiah Cousins (12.2 ppg, 4.6 rpg), TaShawn Thomas (11.3 ppg, 6.5 rpg), Ryan Spangler (10.0 ppg, 8.0 rpg) and Jordan Woodard (9.2 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 3.9 apg) are all capable of carrying the team on a given night. The only weakness is a lack of depth off the bench.

Albany (24-8, 15-1 Am. East) rolled through a weak conference schedule, but it was a completely different story out of conference.  The Great Danes went just 9-8 in non-conference play.  They lost to Quinnipiac, Holy Cross, St. Francis, Bucknell and Niagara, which shows that they simply aren't very good.

Albany struggles to score the basketball as well, ranking 218th in scoring (65.5 points/game) and 312th in assists (10.4/game).  Oklahoma has no trouble scoring the basketball, ranking 65th at 71.9 points per game.  I look for the Sooners to jump out to a big lead, and for Albany to not have the firepower to hang around.

Oklahoma is 14-5 ATS against poor passing teams that average 12 or fewer assists per game over the last three seasons. The Sooners are 21-10 ATS off four straight games where they committed 14 or fewer turnovers over the last three seasons. They’ll be up against an Albany team that is 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall.  Take Oklahoma Friday.

25* Midwest Region GAME OF THE YEAR on Maryland -4

Maryland (27-6, 14-4 Big Ten) was one of the most underrated teams in the country all season.  It continues to lack the respect it deserves as only a 4-point favorite over No. 13 Valparaiso in the Round of 64.  The Terrapins even deserved better than a No. 4 seed in my opinion.

Maryland went 10-1 in non-conference play with its only loss coming to then-No. 7 Virginia.  It beat then-No. 13 Iowa State 72-63 and Arizona State 78-73 for two impressive non-conference wins, while also going on the road and beating Oklahoma State (73-64).  It has six wins in Big Ten play against NCAA Tournament teams as well, including two over Michigan State and one over Wisconsin.

Valparaiso had a fine season at 28-5 and 13-3 in the Horizon League, but it is not battle-tested because it played such a soft schedule this year.  Its non-conference schedule was a joke with its best win coming against Murray State, but it also lost by 15 at Missouri (41-56), which was terrible this year.  The Horizon League was a joke this year as well outside of Wisconsin-Green Bay, which lost to Illinois State in the first round of the NIT.

The Terrapins are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 neutral site games.  Maryland is 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall.  The Terrapins are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.  The Crusaders are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. Big Ten opponents.  Valpo is 0-4 ATS in its last four NCAA Tournament games.  These last four trends combine for a perfect 19-0 system backing the Terrapins.  Bet Maryland Friday.

20* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Arkansas -7.5

The Arkansas Razorbacks are a team I'm very big on heading into the NCAA Tournament.  I believe they are one of the biggest sleepers to make a deep run, and I look for them to do just that starting with this game against Wofford.

It's obvious that the Razorbacks don't get the love they deserve when this line is only 7.5 in a No. 5 vs. No. 12 matchup.  I look for them to go out and earn it in this game.  This is a team that went 26-8 this season and was easily the second-best team in the SEC behind Kentucky.

Arkansas compiled many impressive non-conference wins, including a 30-point victory over Wake Forest, a 6-point win on the road at SMU, and a 14-point home win over Dayton.  It also beat fellow NCAA Tournament teams in Georgia (twice) and Ole Miss in conference action.  Three of its eight losses this season came to Kentucky.

What I really like about the Razorbacks is that they play a style that works in the NCAA Tournament and is tough to prepare for.  They get up and down and they pressure you defensively, which can get the opposition out of sync and lead to big runs for the Razorbacks.  Head coach Mike Anderson is a disciple of Nolan Richardson, who led the Razorbacks to the NCAA Title in 1994.

Wofford posted an impressive 28-6 record this season, but it did so against the weakest of schedules.  The Terriers only had one good non-conference win this season, which was a 55-54 victory at NC State.  They were blown out by 33 at West Virginia, by 29 at Duke and by 15 at Stanford.  If they cannot compete with those teams, they certainly aren't going to hang with Arkansas.

Arkansas is 8-1 ATS off two or more consecutive unders over the past two seasons, coming back to win by an average of 15.1 points per game in this spot.  The Razorbacks are 4-1 ATS in their last five non-conference games.  The Terriers are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. SEC foes.  Bet Arkansas Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on Texas -1.5

The higher seed is going to beat the lower seed in this game between No. 11 Texas and No. 6 Butler.  It will be an upset in terms of the bracket, but the oddsmakers in Las Vegas have this one right in listing the Longhorns as the favorites.  They are the better team and it will show on Thursday.

Texas (20-13) was a popular pick to make the Final Four coming into the season.  With all five starters back, and the addition of future lottery pick Myles Turner, it's easy to see why.  Well, the Longhorns did not live up to expectations this year, and it didn't help that they played one of the toughest schedules in the country, as well as in the toughest conference in the country.

There's no denying that Texas has the pieces and the talent to make a deep run in the big dance.  They have a dynamic point guard in Isiah Taylor, a versatile wingman in Jonathan Holmes, and an imposing back line.  In fact, no team blocks more shots per possession than the Longhorns.  I believe their size will give the undersized Butler Bulldogs fits in this one.

When you look at Texas' season, it's easy to see that it was better than its record would indicate.  It played a brutal non-conference schedule with wins over Iowa, Cal and UConn, while losing to Kentucky and Stanford (OT).  Each of its last six losses in Big 12 play came by 8 points or less, so it was simply on the short end of the stick in so many close games.

The Longhorns are 7-1 ATS in road games against poor pressure defensive teams that force 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Texas is 6-0 ATS in road games after allowing 30 points or less in the first half of two straight games this season.  The Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with Texas Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on UAB +14

The UAB Blazers benefited from playing the Conference USA Tournament in their home city. They parlayed that home-court advantage into a Conference USA Tournament title. They beat Western Kentucky 53-52, Louisiana Tech 72-62 (OT), and Middle Tennessee 73-60 to punch their ticket to the big dance.

However, I would argue that UAB (19-15) is much better than its record would indicate. In fact, each of its last six losses came by either 4 points or less or in overtime. You have to go all the way back to December 27th against North Carolina on the road to find the last time that the Blazers were really blown out. They were also blown out by Wisconsin, and lost to Florida by 9 and UCLA by 12 in the non conference.

Iowa State is getting a lot of hype coming into the NCAA Tournament due to its Big 12 Tournament win.  Well, nothing came easy for the Cyclones.  In fact, they have trailed by double-digits in each of their last five games and by a combined 75 points, yet they have gone 5-0 with all close victories.  They just have a way of playing to the level of their competition and falling behind early, which bodes well for the Blazers covering this 14-point spread.

Due to all of these close games, it’s no wonder that the Blazers are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games overall. UAB is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 against a team with a winning record. The Blazers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games following an ATS win. UAB is also 10-1 ATS against a team with a winning record after 15-plus games this season.  Take UAB Thursday.

25* NCAA First Four GAME OF THE YEAR on Dayton -4

The Flyers earned an at-large bid into the NCAA Tournament this season with a 25-8 record overall and a 13-5 mark within the Atlantic 10 Conference. They felt like they should not have been forced to play in a First Four game, which is exactly what they had to do last year.

If you remember, the Flyers were a Cinderella team that managed to advance to the Elite 8. They brought back their top two players from that team in Jordan Sibert (16.5 ppg) and Dyshawn Pierre (12.7 ppg, 8.2 rpg), who have both played brilliantly all season in leading the Flyers back to the big dance.

Boise State is 25-8 on the season as well and had a very solid year.  But it played a much softer schedule than Dayton this season.  The Broncos are overvalued coming in due to having gone 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games overall.  They have to make a long trip to Dayton for this First-Four game, which is a huge disadvantage.

Dayton is 16-0 at home this season and has won its last 21 overall at UD Arena, which is the seventh-longest active streak in Division 1. The Flyers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight versus excellent teams with a shooting percentage of 45% or more and a shooting percentage defense of 42% or less.  Bet Dayton Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Spurs/Bucks UNDER 192

The books have set the bar too high in this game between the San Antonio Spurs and Milwaukee Bucks tonight.  Both teams come in tired as they are playing the second of a back-to-back.  I look for that to affect the offenses more than the defenses, and for this game to be played at a very slow pace as a result.

Both teams rank in the middle of the pack in pace as it is with San Antonio at 17th and Milwaukee at 14th.  What I really like about this play is that both teams rank in the top 10 in defense.  Milwaukee is 2nd in defensive efficiency, while San Antonio ranks 8th in defensive efficiency.

The Spurs are 20-12 to the UNDER in road games this season.  They are scoring just 97.5 points and allowing 96.1 points away from home this year.  The Bucks are 18-12 to the UNDER in home games, scoring 98.3 points and allowing 95.7 points per contest.

The UNDER is 5-0 in Spurs last five games when playing on 0 days' rest.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Bucks last five games following a loss.  These two trends combine for a perfect 10-0 system backing the UNDER today folks.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NIT PLAY OF THE DAY on Illinois State -3

The Illinois State Redbirds (21-12) were overlooked this season in the Missouri Valley Conference.  That's because both Wichita State and Northern Iowa had tremendous seasons.  Well, there's no question that the Redbirds were the third-best team in the conference.

There's no question in my mind that the Redbirds were even better than their 21-12 record would suggest.  In fact, eight of their 12 losses came by 6 points or less, so they were simply on the short end of the stick in so many close games.

Wisconsin-Green Bay played an easier schedule than Illinois State coming from the Horizon League.  It posted a solid 25-8 record this season, but it just couldn't beat Valpo when it needed to to get in the big dance.  I believe the Phoenix are still deflated following their loss to the Crusaders in the championship game.

One way to compare teams is common opponents.  These teams played the same four teams this year.  Green Bay went 4-0 against those four teams, outscoring them by 8.5 points per game.  Illinois State went 6-0 against those same four teams, outscoring them by 14.7 points per game.

Illinois State is 11-2 ATS in home games against good shooting teams that make 45% or more of their shots over the last two seasons.  Green Bay is 32-53 ATS in its last 85 road games after covering two of its last three against the spread.  The Phoenix are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.  Green Bay is 1-5 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a winning record.  The Redbirds are 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games.  Take Illinois State Wednesday.

15* First-Four PLAY OF THE DAY on Ole Miss +4

Many felt that the BYU Cougars (25-9) did not belong in the NCAA Tournament because of their lack of quality wins.  I would have to agree, but a big finish and a win over Gonzaga got them in even though they would lose by 16 to the Zags in the conference tournament.

The Cougars didn't have one really impressive win outside of the conference, but they lost to SDSU, Purdue and Utah.  The Ole Miss Rebels (20-12) had their fair share of quality non-conference wins.  They beat Cincinnati on a neutral court and Oregon on the road.

There's no question that the Rebels played the tougher schedule in the SEC.  They took Kentucky to overtime on the road, which was the toughest that any team played the Wildcats this season.  They also beat fellow NCAA Tournament team Arkansas and played several others very tight.

Ole Miss is 9-2 ATS as an underdog this season.  The Rebels are 6-0 ATS in non-conference road games this year.  The Cougars are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 neutral court games.  The Rebels are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games.  Take Ole Miss Tuesday.

20* NIT GAME OF THE WEEK on UTEP +5.5

The Murray State Racers (27-5) are extremely disappointed that they won't be playing in the NCAA Tournament.  They felt like they did enough to get in, but the committee saw it differently after their lost to Belmont on a last-second 3-pointer in the conference championship game.

The UTEP Miners (22-10) are a very good team that played a much more difficult schedule than the Racers did this season.  They are the better team in this game in my opinion, and they should not even be underdogs to the Racers, let alone 5.5-point dogs.

UTEP did lose four non-conference games this year, but all four of them came by 7 points or less, including a 5-point loss to Arizona.  Murray State also lost four non-conference games, including a 74-77 home loss to Houston, a 62-89 loss at Xavier, and a 58-93 loss to Valparaiso.

The Miners are 9-1 ATS versus good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game over the last two seasons.  The Racers are 24-48 ATS versus good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game since 1997.  The Miners are 17-7-1 ATS in their last 25 games following a S.U. loss.  The Racers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games.  Bet UTEP Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/Pistons UNDER 185

I look for an ugly, low-scoring defensive battle between the Memphis Grizzlies and Detroit Pistons tonight.  Both teams rely heavily on their big men in Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph for the Grizzlies and Andre Drummond and Greg Monroe for the Pistons.  This is going to be a great battle between these four.

Another thing that stands out to me is that both teams play at a very slow pace.  The Grizzlies rank 26th in the NBA in pace at 94.3 possessions per game.  The Pistons rank 20th at 95.6 possessions per contest.  The Grizzlies are also 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency.

Memphis has really been clamping down defensively here of late.  It has allowed 95 or fewer points in six of its last seven games overall, including 83 and 81 in back-to-back games.  Detroit has hit the skids offensively, scoring less than 100 points in seven of its last eight contests.

Detroit is 20-8 to the UNDER in non-conference games this season.  The UNDER is 21-5-1 in Grizzlies last 27 games overall.  The UNDER is 10-3-1 in Pistons last 14 games overall.  The UNDER is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings in this series.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.