20* Rockets/Jazz TNT No-Brainer on Utah +5.5 

The Utah Jazz will respond in a big way after getting embarrassed at home by the Houston Rockets 92-113 in Game 3.  They shot just 41.7% from the field and it was over by halftime.  They know their home fans deserve a better effort than that. 

The Jazz could get Ricky Rubio back in the lineup from a hamstring injury.  He has been upgraded to questionable and will likely be a game-time decision after missing the first three games in this series.  They proved they could win without him with their 116-108 road win in Game 2 as 10.5-point underdogs, but of course they’d rather have him back. 

Plays against road favorites (Houston) after having covered four of their last five against the spread, a top team (75% or better) playing a team with a winning record are 72-39 (64.9%) ATS since 1996. 

The Jazz are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a straight up loss by more than 10 points.  The Jazz are 6-2 ATS in their last eight Sunday games.  The Rockets are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games.  Mike D’Antoni is 11-23 ATS after leading their previous game by 15 or more points at the half as the coach of Houston.  Bet the Jazz Sunday. 

20* Raptors/Cavs ABC No-Brainer on Toronto +5 

The Toronto Raptors aren’t done yet.  Most have written them off after losing the first two games of this series at home.  But I strongly believe they still have some fight left in them for Game 3 to try and redeem themselves. 

They let the Cavs off the hook in Game 1 by going 0-for-12 down the stretch.  They never trailed one time in regulation and then lost in overtime.  Then Kevin Love had his best game of the playoffs in Game 2, which came out of nowhere because he had been playing terrible.  The Cavs shot 59.5% as a team in Game 2, which isn’t going to happen again. 

Look for the Raptors to show some pride here in Game 3.  They are a much better team than they’ve shown up to this point, and I still think they are better than the Cavs.  They have only forced eight turnovers this entire series, and that’s unacceptable.  Their defensive effort will be the best it has been in any game this series in Game 3 to try and make up for it. 

Toronto is 11-2 ATS in road games off two or more consecutive losses over the last three seasons.  Cleveland is 11-29 ATS as a home favorite this season.  The Cavaliers are 16-38-1 ATS in their last 55 home games overall.  Cleveland is 0-4 ATS in its last four home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet the Raptors Saturday.

My 2018 Kentucky Derby Picks:

Win: No. 11 Bolt d'Oro (8/1)

Price, performance and pedigree lead me to believe that Bolt d'Oro will be your 2018 Kentucky Derby winner.  He has four wins in six starts, including a pair of Grade 1 victories.  He placed a game second to Derby favorite Justify in the Santa Anita Derby.

Bolt d'Oro's sire, Medaglia d'Oro, delivered seven Grade 1 winners in 2017.  His broodmare sire, A.P. Indy, won the 1 1/2-mile Belmont Stakes in 1992.  He has one of the top Beyer Speed Figures (103) in the field.

Bolt d'Oro finished the final three-eighths of a mile in the Santa Anita Derby in less than 38 seconds, showing that he has plenty left in the tank for the 1 1/4 mile Derby.  If he gets in a duel with Justify again, I like his chances down the stretch.

Place: No. 6 Good Magic (12/1)

Good Magic was a champion 2-year old that has steadily improved with each start.  I expect him to take another step forward in the Derby Saturday.  After a disappointing seasonal debut, he came back with an impressive win in the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes.

Good Magic has the perfect running style for the Derby.  He is a stalker that likes to sit just off the pace, and that is the style that usually wins this race.  He'll be able to follow Justify out of the 7th post and stalk him.

Underrated trainer Chad Brown has been oozing with confidence over this horse.  Brown won the Preakness with Cloud Computing last year, and Practical Joke came in a solid fifth in the Kentucky Derby.  Brown is a Top 5 trainer nationally, has won 10 Breeders' Cup races, and an Eclipse award as top trainer.

The son of Curlin, Good Magic has a great pedigree.  Curlin finished a disappointing 3rd in the Derby, but went on to win the Breeders' Cup Classic and Dubai World Cup to become one of the all-time greats.  He's already sired a Belmont and Preakness winner, and Exaggerator was second in the Derby.  Good Magic's damsire, Hard Spun, finished one spot ahead of Curlin in the Derby and two spots behind him in the Preakness.  The bloodline couldn't be much better for this horse.

Show:  No. 7 Justify (3/1)

History and inexperience are the only reasons I am not picking Justify to win.  No horse that failed to race as a 2-year old has won the Kentucky Derby since Apollo in 1882.  That's an 0-for-61 stretch, and something that cannot be overlooked.

But what also can't be overlooked is how Justify has won all three of his races as a 3-year-old in impressive fashion.  He has won the three by a combined 19 lengths.  He finished strong in the Santa Anita Derby to hold off favorite Bolt d'Oro, which I believe to be the best horse in the field.

Another reason to like Justify's chances is the post draw.  He drew the No. 7 post, and based on the racing styles of the horses closest to him, he's going to have an easy path to where he wants to get to.  Justify is a stalker that prefers to be toward the front and then make his move around the final turn.  He'll be able to move in right behind likely pacesetters Promises Fulfilled and Flameaway, who start from the 3rd and 4th posts, respectively.

Exacta Pick: 6, 7, 11 Exacta Box

Trifecta Pick:5, 6, 7, 11 Trifecta Box

Note: I'm throwing in No. 5 Audible in my Trifecta Box as I believe he's the 4th-best horse in the field and the most likely to hit the board if one of my top three picks falter.  Feel free to use these four horses in a Superfecta Box as well.

20* Rockets/Jazz ESPN No-Brainer on Houston -4.5 

After a terrible performance in Game 2 with an upset loss to the Jazz as 10.5-point home favorites, I fully expect the Houston Rockets to come back highly motivated for a victory in Game 3.  Look for them to bury the Jazz tonight. 

The Rockets shot 40% from the field and 27% from 3-point range in Game 2.  That’s not going to happen again.  Meanwhile, the Jazz shot 51.8% from the field and 46.9% (15-of-32) from 3-point range in Game 2.  That’s also unlikely to happen again. 

It was a rare win for the Jazz in this series.  The Rockets are now 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their six meetings with the Jazz this season.  All five wins came by 11 points or more as well. 

Houston is 14-3 ATS in road games off two or more consecutive overs over the last two seasons.  The Rockets are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Bet the Rockets Friday. 

25* NBA Eastern Conference Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Toronto Raptors -6.5 

The Cleveland Cavaliers became just the 2nd team in the last 20 years to win a playoff game while not leading once during regulation.  It was a complete fluke.  The Raptors feel they let them off the hook, and they’ll come back highly motivated in Game 2 to square this series. 

I think the Cavaliers feel they’re just happy for a split in Toronto and won’t be giving the kind of effort they did in Game 1.  They weren’t as fatigued as I expected them to be, but they will start to feel it in the coming games after having to go 7 games to defeat the Pacers. 

It was a rare home loss for the Raptors, who are 37-8 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 10.1 points per game.  Cleveland is just 6-16 ATS off a road win this season.  The Cavs are also 15-29 ATS after playing a road game this year. 

Plays on any team (Toronto) - revenging a loss as a favorite against opponent that’s off a road win by 3 points or less are 52-24 (68.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Raptors are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet the Raptors in Game 2 Thursday. 

20* Jazz/Rockets TNT No-Brainer on Utah +11 

The Utah Jazz know that if they are going to have any chance in this series, they are going to have to steal one in Houston.  The Rockets have owned them this season, and I think they say enough is enough this game. 

They lost by 14 in Game 1, but there’s reason to believe they can improve on that significantly.  The Jazz shot just 31.8% from 3-point range and 59.1% from the free throw line while committing 18 turnovers.  They should be able to improve on all three of those numbers, which will help them stay within 11 here. 

The Rockets shot lights out in Game 1 from 3-point range.  They made 17-of-32 (53.1%) of their attempts, which was the difference.  They also shot 79.2% from the free throw line.  It’s hard to envision the Rockets shooting that well from distance again in Game 2. 

Mike D’Antoni is 1-10 ATS off three consecutive covers as a favorite as the coach of Houston.  The Rockets are only winning by 2.0 points per game on average this spot.  Houston is 1-9 ATS in home games off three consecutive covers as a favorite over the last two seasons.  Bet the Jazz in Game 2 Wednesday. 

15* Pelicans/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on New Orleans +11 

The New Orleans Pelicans got embarrassed in Game 1 in a 101-123 loss at Golden State.  The Warriors shot 48.4% for the game and 40.7% from the 3-point line, while the Pelicans shot just 43.7% for the game and 32% from 3-point range. 

Look for the Pelicans to come back highly motivated for a win in Game 2.  They know they are going to have to steal one in Golden State if they want to make this a series.  And this would be the time to do it with Stephen Curry returning for the Warriors.  They are getting too much respect for his return, but he won’t be sharp as he hasn’t played since late March. 

The Pelicans are 9-1 SU & 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  It was probably a good thing that they took a humbling defeat in Game 1 to refocus, because they were probably getting overconfident after their 9-game winning streak and sweep of the Portland Trail Blazers in the first round. 

The Warriors are 8-25 in their last 33 games after attempting 20 or more free throws than their opponent.  The Warriors shot 32 while the Pelicans shot just 11 in Game 1.  There won’t be that big of a gap in Game 2.  Golden State is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS win.  Take the Pelicans in Game 2 Tuesday. 

20* Cavs/Raptors TNT No-Brainer on Toronto -6.5 

Cleveland needed a super-human performance from Lebron James just to get by the Indiana Pacers in seven games.  He averaged over 45 points per game in their four wins, yet they won those games by just 3, 4, 3 and 4 points.  It’s a sign of things to come for the Cavaliers in this series. 

Toronto is the most complete team in the Eastern Conference, and that showed in the regular season.  They go 10-plus deep and have been much better this season with a change in philosophy.  They are looking to push the tempo more and shoot more 3-pointers.  They average 111.5 points per game this season. 

The Raptors are 37-7 at home this season.  They are outscoring opponents by 10.4 points per game on their home floor.  It will be a raucous atmosphere tonight in Toronto.  The Cavs are tired as they just had to play on Sunday and only get one day to get ready for Toronto.  Lebron admitted he was extremely tired in his press conference after the game Sunday.  The Raptors, who have had three days off in between games, will be the fresher, more motivated team in Game 1. 

Plays against underdogs (Cleveland) - as the No. 4 seed in the playoffs, in the 1st game of a playoff series are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS since 1996.  The Cavaliers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall.  The Raptors are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six home games.  The home team is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet the Raptors in Game 1 Tuesday. 

20* 76ers/Celtics TNT No-Brainer on Philadelphia -3.5 

The Philadelphia 76ers are rested and ready to go following an impressive 4-1 win over Miami in the opening round.  They won three of the four games by double-digits.  They haven’t played since April 24th and will be the fresher team here. 

The same cannot be said for the Celtics, who were pushed to the brink of elimination.  They needed to win Game 7 against the Bucks just to advance.  And they played Game 7 on Saturday, so they have only had one day to get rested and ready for the 76ers. 

That’s not enough given the current state of the Celtics.  Injuries have taken their toll all season, and another one popped up in Game 7.  Jaylen Brown suffered a hamstring injury that forced him to leave the game.  Now Brown is doubtful for Game 1 Monday. 

The 76ers are 27-12 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  Philadelphia is 6-1 ATS in its last seven road games.  The road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  The 76ers are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Boston.  Bet the 76ers in Game 1 Monday. 

20* Pacers/Cavs Game 7 No-Brainer on UNDER 200 

The UNDER is 5-1 in the six games in this series thus far.  The lone exception was Game 6 as Indiana shot lights out and they combined for 208 points.  The Pacers shot 56.3% from the field and 15-of-30 from 3-point range.  That’s not going to happen again. 

The other five games saw 178, 197, 182, 204 and 193 combined points.  Now we have a 200-point total for Game 7 with everything on the line.  Defensive intensity will be at an all-time high, and this game will slow down to a snail’s pace.  That’s why I really like the UNDER in this Game 7 today. 

Indiana is 12-1 UNDER after scoring 120 points or more this season.  The UNDER is 8-1-1 in Pacers last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 35-16-1 in Pacers last 52 games overall.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Cavs last four home games.  The UNDER is 7-1-1 in the last nine meetings, including 3-0-1 in the last four meetings in Cleveland.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday. 

20* Bucks/Celtics TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 195.5 

As this series has progressed and these teams have gotten more familiar with one another, points have been harder and harder to come by.  The tempo has also slowed down dramatically.  That won’t change in this decisive Game 7 with everything on the line. 

Boston beat Milwaukee 92-87 for 179 combined points in Game 5.  Milwaukee returned the favor with a 97-86 home victory in Game 6 and only 183 combined points.  Now we have a total set of 195.5 for Game 7, which is much higher than those two results.  I think there’s a ton of value with the UNDER in this game tonight. 

I think it’s no coincidence that these last two games have been so low scoring with the return of Marcus Smart from injury.  He is one of the best perimeter defenders in the league, and he also tends to hold the ball on offense.  Bet the UNDER in Game 7 Saturday. 

15* Thunder/Jazz ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 207.5 

As a series goes on and teams become more familiar with one another, points become harder to come by. I expect that to be the case in this all-important Game 6 here tonight.  Both teams will struggle to even reach 100 points in this one with what’s at stake. 

The UNDER is now 6-3 in the nine meetings between the Thunder and Jazz this season.  They have averaged just 200.1 combined points per game in those nine meetings.  So we’re getting at least 7 points of value with the UNDER based on their head-to-head season averages. 

And it’s worth noting that in Game 5 Rudy Gobert got in foul trouble and missed most of the second half.  The Thunder were stuck on 46 points with 8:00 minutes left in the 3rd quarter, but finished with a fully and a 107-99 win.  That was almost all due to Gobert’s absence.  Look for him to be smarter about staying out of foul trouble and to play his normal minutes in this one, which will certainly help the UNDER since he’s arguably the most important defender in the league. 

Oklahoma City is 17-5 UNDER as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last three seasons.  The Thunder are 9-1 UNDER after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half over the last two years.  The UNDER is 15-6 in the last 21 meetings, including 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Utah.  Take the UNDER in Game 6 Friday. 

25* NBA 1st Round TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Raptors/Wizards UNDER 214.5 

After going over the total in each of the first three games in this series, the Raptors and Wizards have gone under the total in the last two.  This goes right along with my theory that the more familiar teams become with one another, the harder it is to score points. 

That has been the case in Games 4 and 5 of this series.  They combined for 204 points in Game 4 and 206 points in Game 5.  Now they have the total set at 214.5 for Game 6, which is still higher than the 213.5-point total they had for Games 1 and 2.  So I think there’s a ton of value with the UNDER in Game 6 tonight. 

Toronto is 15-5 UNDER in April road games over the last three seasons.  Washington is 15-7 UNDER off two or more consecutive unders this season.  The UNDER is 10-4 in Wizards last 14 games when playing on one days’ rest.  Bet the UNDER in Game 6 Friday. 

20* Celtics/Bucks TNT No-Brainer on Milwaukee -4 

I think the fact that the Celtics have gone 4-1 ATS thus far in this series has them overvalued.  But they barely covered in three of the four games where they were victorious against the spread.  I think the value is now with the Bucks at home as only 4-point favorites in this matchup. 

The Bucks are in a must-win situation here trying to force a Game 7.  It’s safe to say that they will be laying it all on the line tonight.  They have played very well in their two home games in this series.  They won Game 3 116-92 and then led 51-35 at halftime of Game 4 before the Celtics came out of nowhere to score 67 points in the second half.  That’s unlikely to happen again. 

It’s also unlikely that the Bucks are going to shoot as poorly as they did in Game 5.  They shot just 36.8% in that contest, yet still only lost 87-92 as 4.5-point underdogs.  They had shot 59.7%, 57% and 52.1% in their three previous games and should get back to torching this undersized Celtics’ defense. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the five games thus far.  That trend continues here as Milwaukee forces a Game 7.  Bet the Bucks Thursday. 

25* NBA 1st Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Oklahoma City Thunder -3.5 

With their season on the line tonight, the Oklahoma City Thunder should respond in a big way at home in Game 5.  Look for them to easily cover this generous 3.5-point spread as they are now clearly undervalued after losing the last three games to the Jazz. 

The Thunder are 15-1 SU in their last 16 home meetings with the Jazz.  They have won these games by an average of 13.1 points per game.  This is certainly a trend I want to get behind tonight given the circumstances. 

The home team is 21-9 ATS in the last 30 meetings.  The Jazz are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 trips to Oklahoma City.  Bet the Thunder in Game 5 Wednesday. 

15* Wizards/Raptors NBA TV No-Brainer on Toronto -7 

After losing both games in Washington, the Toronto Raptors will come back highly motivated for a victory in Game 5 tonight at home.  They want to prove their naysayers wrong that this is a different team and one ready to make the NBA Finals. 

The Raptors are 36-7 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 10.4 points per game.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings with the only exception being a 102-95 Toronto win in Washington in their final regular season meeting this year. 

Toronto is 13-3 ATS off two or more consecutive road losses over the last three seasons.  The Wizards are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games.  The Raptors are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five home games.  Take the Raptors in Game 5 Wednesday. 

20* Heat/76ers TNT No-Brainer on Miami +10.5 

The Miami Heat let a golden opportunity slip by in Game 4 as they were trying to tie this series.  They shot just 13-of-25 (52%) from the free throw line, which was the difference in their 102-106 loss.  They know they can play with this team, and they will be laying it all on the line in Game 5 to keep their season alive. 

Miami is 16-4 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last two seasons.  The Heat are 8-1 ATS in road games after having lost four or five of their last six games this season.  Miami is 11-3 ATS off two or more consecutive losses this season.  The Heat are 22-7 ATS off two or more consecutive ATS losses over the last two years. 

Plays on underdogs of 10 or more points (Miami) - poor foul drawing team attempting 21 or fewer free throws per game, when playing on Tuesday nights are 49-19 (72.1%) ATS since 1996.  Miami is 19-9-2 ATS in its last 30 road games.  Bet the Heat in Game 5 Tuesday. 

20* Rockets/Timberwolves TNT No-Brainer on Minnesota +6 

I’ve rode Minnesota in every game this series and I’m going to continue to do so tonight.  I came into the playoffs believing that the Timberwolves were the most underrated 8th seed of all-time, and the Rockets were overrated for what they did in the regular season.  And so far that has panned out. 

The Timberwolves have gone toe-to-toe with the Rockets, only getting outscored by 7 points total in their first three games despite playing two of the first three in Houston.  This is simply a different team with a healthy Jimmy Butler, and an 8th seed that no No. 1 seed would ever want to have to face. 

The Timberwolves responded in a big way with a 121-105 victory in Game 3.  They have rabid home fans who have been starving for a playoff game for more than a decade.  It will be another raucous atmosphere tonight in Minneapolis as the Timberwolves likely square this series 2-2, though we’ll take the 6 points for some added insurance. 

The Rockets are 1-8 ATS in their last nine vs. Western Conference opponents.  Houston is 0-5 ATS in its last five road games.  Minnesota is 6-1 ATS in its last six games overall.  Bet the Timberwolves in Game 4 Monday. 

20* Cavs/Pacers TNT No-Brainer on Cleveland +1 

After choking away a huge lead in the 2nd half of Game 3, the Cleveland Cavaliers will come back with a chip on their shoulder in Game 4.  This is a must-win game for them and I expect them to respond as so. 

I trust Lebron James in this situation more than any other player in the NBA.  Of course, he will have to get some help from his teammates, which has been lacking thus far in the series.  Look for the role players to step up and follow his lead. 

Indiana is a young team that’s not ready for the spotlight just yet.  They have answered the bell in the first three games, but now the pressure intensifies.  I don’t trust them in this situation. 

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Indiana) - off a close win by 3 points or less against opponent that’s off a loss by 6 points or less are 45-21 (68.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Cavaliers in Game 4 Sunday. 

15* Celtics/Bucks ABC Early ANNIHILATOR on Milwaukee -4.5 

The Milwaukee Bucks are clearly the more talented team right now due to all of the injuries for Boston.  That talent shined through in Game 3, and it will once again in Game 4 today. 

The Celtics simply wanted it more in the first two games in this series.  It also helped that they shot nearly 60% in Game 2.  But as this series goes on, I think their deficiencies will start to show as there is more than a crack or two in their foundation. 

I like the resiliency the Bucks showed in Game 3 with their 116-92 blowout victory.  They will come out like gangbusters once again in Game 4 with their backs still against the wall here down in this series.  And I think this 4.5-point spread is very generous given that they are the better team right now and playing at home. 

Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Boston) - revenging a blowout road loss by 20 points or more against opponent off a home win scoring 110 or more points are 33-10 (76.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The home team is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take the Bucks in Game 4 Sunday. 

15* Thunder/Jazz ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 207 

This has been an UNDER series between the Jazz and Thunder.  I think the books have set the bar too high in this Game 3.  As the series goes on, teams become more familiar with one another, and that certainly favors defense. 

The UNDER is 5-1 in the six meetings between Utah and Oklahoma City this season.  Game 1 was clearly the aberration as they combined for 224 points.  But the other five meetings saw 197, 192, 186, 194 and 183 combined points.  That’s an average of 196.0 combined points per game, which is roughly 11 points less than tonight’s posted total of 207, showing that there is a ton of value with the UNDER. 

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (Utah) - in the 3rd game of a playoff series are 56-26 (68.3%) since 1996.  Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (Oklahoma City) - after having won five or six of their last seven games, extremely well-rested team playing 5 or less games in 14 days are 73-33 (68%) over the last five seasons. 

Oklahoma City is 27-11 UNDER as a road underdog over the last two seasons.  The Thunder are 11-3 UNDER off a home loss this season.  The Jazz are 8-1 UNDER in home games when playing with two days’ rest this season.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday. 

20* Rockets/Timberwolves ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota +4.5 

Minnesota fans will be raucous as they’ve waited a long time for a home playoff game.  Look for the Timberwolves to respond in a big way and get right back in this series with a big Game 3 win at home tonight. 

Minnesota played well in a 101-104 Game 1 loss as 11.5-point underdogs.  But they couldn’t make anything in Game 2 and lost 82-102.  They also turned the ball over 16 games and shot just 27.8% from 3-point range.  It’s safe to say they will play much better here tonight. 

I think this is the game where the Timberwolves say enough is enough.  The Rockets have had their number over the past two seasons, winning eight straight meetings coming in.  Look for them to relax enough after taking a 2-0 lead that the Timberwolves will be by far the more motivated, aggressive team in Game 3. 

Minnesota is 10-1 ATS in home games off two or more consecutive unders this season.  It is winning by 13.8 points per game on average in this spot this year.  Take the Timberwolves Saturday. 

20* Raptors/Wizards ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Washington -1.5 

The Toronto Raptors shot lights out in their first two games at home against the Wizards in this series.  They shot 53.2% in Game 1 and 16-of-30 (53.3%) from 3-point range.  In Game 2, they shot 51.7% and 13-of-35 (37.1%) from 3-point range. 

The law of averages says that they won’t shoot that well against in Game 3.  Look for a big effort from the Wizards at home here Friday night to try and get back in this series.  They have shot it pretty well these first two games with 106 points in Game 1 and 119 points in Game 2, but it wasn’t quite enough.  They will be much better defensively at home in Game 3. 

Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Toronto) - after going over the total by more than 30 points in their previous game, in the second half of the season are 25-8 (75.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Toronto) - hot team having covered six or seven of their last eight against the spread, with a winning record on the season are 75-39 (65.8%) ATS over the last five years.  The Raptors are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Wizards Friday. 

15* Blazers/Pelicans NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Portland +4 

The Portland Trail Blazers are extremely disappointed to be down 0-2 in this series.  They had their chances in Game 1 and Game 2, trailing by exactly 2 points in the closing seconds both games.  They shot just 37.8% in Game 1 and 45.1% in Game 2. 

I expect the Blazers to come out with a win-or-die attitude in Game 3 tonight.  They have been bashed in the media leading up to this game, especially Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum.  These guys already play with a chip on their shoulder and will only be extra motivated to make amends tonight. 

The Pelicans will likely relax now that they’ve stolen two games in Portland.  Jrue Holiday and Anthony Davis have both been receiving huge praise in the media, as have Rajon Rondo and Nikola Mirotic.  Deservedly so, but that’s the type of exposure that will make players relax. 

Home-court advantage has meant very little in this series recently.  The road team is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Pelicans are only 24-17 at home this year compared to 26-17 on the road.  Plays against home favorites (New Orleans) after beating the spread by 54 or more points in their last 10 games against opponent after going under the total by 48 or more points in their last 10 games are 42-12 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Blazers Thursday. 

20* 76ers/Heat TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 217 

The 76ers and Heat shot lights out in Game 1 and combined for 233 points.  They set expectations for themselves that they could not live up to moving forward.  They still combined for 216 points in Game 2, but that went UNDER the 217-point total.  And now I expect an even lower-scoring Game 3 with an identical 217-point total. 

As a series goes on, teams become more familiar with one another.  That favors defense.  I also like the fact that this series is moving to Miami.  The Heat want to slow it down, while the 76ers want to play at a fast pace.  Well, the home team is the one that usually controls the pace, so expect this to be the slowest tempo of any game thus far. 

Five of the last six meetings between Miami and Philadelphia have seen 216 or fewer combined points.  Miami is 11-2 UNDER off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 12-4 in 76ers last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Heat last seven conference quarterfinals games.  The UNDER is 37-18-2 in Heat last 57 Thursday games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday. 

20* Timberwolves/Rockets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Minnesota +10.5 

The Minnesota Timberwolves gave the Houston Rockets all they wanted in Game 1.  They only lost 101-104 despite an awful shooting night in which they shot just 43.7% from the field compared to 47% for the Rockets. 

Playing playoff basketball down the stretch really helped the Timberwolves.  They needed to win Game No. 82 just to get in the playoffs, while the Rockets were coasting for weeks.  And having Jimmy Butler healthy down the stretch made all the difference for this team as well. 

They are now 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games, including 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS since Butler returned from injury.  Butler meant everything for this team during the regular season.  They went 39-23 with him in the lineup, and just 8-12 in the 20 games without him.  They are certainly good enough to hang with Houston at full strength, which was evident in Game 1. 

Plays against home favorites (Houston) - when leading in a playoff series, a top-level team (75% or better) playing a team with a winning record are 45-19 (70.3%) ATS since 1996.   

Minnesota is 22-10 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last three seasons.  Houston is 9-18 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points this season.  The Rockets are 0-7 ATS in their last seven vs. Western Conference opponents.  The Timberwolves are 6-2 ATS in their last eight trips to Houston.  Bet the Timberwolves in Game 2 Wednesday. 

15* Pelicans/Blazers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland -6.5 

After losing Game 1 in heartbreaking fashion 97-95, I look for the Portland Trail Blazers to get a big win and cover in Game 2 to get right back in this series.  They cannot afford to fall down 0-2, and the Pelicans are just happy to steal one game in Portland. 

The Blazers couldn’t have shot any worse in Game 1, yet they still about won the game.  They shot just 37-of-98 (37.8%) from the field and 12-of-39 (30.8%) from 3-point range.  I suspect the game plan will be to try and get the ball inside more to Jusuf Nurkic and to attack the rim after settling for too many jumpers in Game 1. 

The Pelicans actually shot the ball well, making 47.7% from the field.  They won’t top that number, and as long as the Blazers at least match them from a percentage standpoint, they should easily cover this spread in Game 2. 

Portland is 21-4 SU & 19-5-1 ATS in its last 25 home games.  The Blazers have one of the best home-court advantages in the league, especially in the second half of the season this year.  With their season ultimately on the line tonight, they’ll come through with a big effort.  Take the Blazers Tuesday. 

20* Wizards/Raptors NBA Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 215 

The Wizards and Raptors combined for 220 points in Game 1.  But both teams shot lights out to get there, especially the Raptors.  I look for a much lower scoring Game 2 and for this contest to stay UNDER the 215-point total. 

The Raptors shot 53.2% from the field, 53.3% from 3-point range with 16 made 3-pointers, and 80% from the line in Game 1.  The Wizards shot a solid 47.7% from the field, 38.1% from 3-point range and 88.9% from the free throw line.  At the very least, the Raptors won’t shoot as well in Game 2, and the Wizards will be hard-pressed to match their numbers. 

Eight of the previous 11 meetings in this series saw 203 or fewer combined points.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Toronto with an average combined score of just 199.2 points per game. I think we get back to seeing a more familiar combined score between these teams, one much lower than this 215-point total.  There is clearly some value with the UNDER after a high-scoring Game 1. 

Washington is 11-3 UNDER in road games when playing just its 2nd game in 5 days this season.  The UNDER is 5-1-1 in Wizards last six games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 10-4 in Raptors last 14 Conference Quarterfinals games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday. 

15* Spurs/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on San Antonio +10 

Greg Popovich called out his players after an ugly 92-113 loss to Golden State in Game 1.  His exact words were that they looked like a ‘deer in headlights’.  Look for his players to respond with a much better effort in Game 2 tonight. 

It was a rare performance for the Spurs in which they lost most of the 50-50 balls and were out rebounded 57-40.  They also caught the Warriors on a rare good shooting night in which they shot 54.3%, while the Spurs couldn’t make anything and shot just 40.0%.  Look for those percentages to be much closer to even in Game 2 with the Spurs covering this 10-point spread. 

Plays on road underdogs (San Antonio) - after failing to cover five or six of their last seven against the spread against opponent after having covered two of their last three against the spread are 177-113 (61%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

Golden State is 3-14 ATS when playing against a team that wins 51% to 60% of their games in the second half of the season this season.  San Antonio is 14-4 ATS after failing to cover five or six of their last seven against the spread over the last two seasons.  The Spurs are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss by more than 10 points.  The Warriors are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games when playing on one days’ rest.  Take the Spurs in Game 2 Monday. 

20* Heat/76ers TNT No-Brainer on Miami +7 

The Miami Heat actually held a 60-56 lead over Philadelphia at halftime in Game 1.  That’s why it’s so hard to believe they lost by 27.  But the 76ers couldn’t miss in the second half and rode that momentum to a blowout victory. 

This is one of my favorite situations in the playoffs.  I like backing the team coming off the blowout loss because they will be the more motivated team.  And the 76ers aren’t going to shoot 18-of-28 (64.3%) from 3-point range again. 

That was a rare blowout victory for the 76ers in this series, too.  It was only the second time in the last 16 meetings that the 76ers have beaten the Heat by more than 7 points.  They split the season series 2-2 with the Heat’s two losses coming by 2 and 6 points. 

Miami is 26-10-2 ATS in its last 38 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Philadelphia is 1-5 ATS in its last six games after scoring more than 125 points in its previous game.  Bet the Heat in Game 2 Monday. 

15* Timberwolves/Rockets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Minnesota +11.5 

The Houston Rockets have been the best team in the NBA during the regular season.  That makes them overvalued heading into the playoffs.  Expectations are high, and I look for them to fall short of expectations in Game 1 considering they are whopping 11.5-point favorites over the Minnesota Timberwolves. 

I think the fact that the Rockets took their foot off the gas down the stretch after wrapping up the No. 1 seed in the West will work against them early in the playoffs.  They went 1-6 ATS over their final seven games and haven’t been into it mentally.  They also have some key injuries right now with Luc Mbah a Moute and Ryan Anderson out for Game 1, and Eric Gordon questionable. 

The Timberwolves have been playing playoff basketball down the stretch.  They needed to win Game No. 82 just to get into the playoffs, and they did so in overtime against the Nuggets, so they will be oozing with confidence and feeling like they are playing with house’s money.  They also got a healthy Jimmy Butler back for the last few games of the regular season, and this team has been much better with Butler in the lineup as he has played at a near-MVP level when healthy this year. 

I also think the fact that the Rockets went 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS against the Timberwolves this season has them overvalued, and it also has the Timberwolves motivated for revenge.  Having Butler healthy and able to guard James Harden will be huge in this series.  Butler is one of the top defenders in the league when focused, and he’ll certainly be focused in the playoffs. 

The Timberwolves are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall, including 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS since Butler returned from injury.  He only played in 62 games this season.  The Timberwolves went 8-12 without him, and 39-23 with him.  That’s the kind of difference he makes for this team.  It’s safe to say Minnesota is one dangerous 8th seed, and maybe the best 8th seed I can ever remember.  Roll with the Timberwolves Sunday.

20* Jazz/Thunder TNT Sunday No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -3.5 

The Utah Jazz are certainly a great regular season team.  They play solid defense and will fight you every night.  But they lack superstar power, and that’s what you need in the playoffs.  I think they are in over their heads here in Game 1 against the Thunder. 

The Thunder aren’t short on star power.  Russell Westbrook just finished averaging a triple-double for the second consecutive season, which is unheard of.   Paul George is still a Top 10 player in this league, Carmelo Anthony is hungry, and Steven Adams is one of the most underrated centers in the game because he does all the dirty work. 

I think the Jazz come in overvalued due to their big finish to the season.  But they are just 20-21 on the road, and the Thunder have an excellent home-court advantage with a 27-14 record this season.  And the Thunder own the Jazz, going 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.   

The Thunder won their final three meetings with the Jazz this season by 14, 28 and 6 points.  In fact, Oklahoma City is 14-0 SU in its last 14 home meetings with Utah.  It has won those 14 meetings by an average of 14.9 points per game.  Enough said.  Bet the Thunder Sunday. 

20* Heat/76ers ESPN Saturday No-Brainer on Miami +7 

The Miami Heat are probably the most underrated team in the Eastern Conference playoffs.  They aren’t flashy and lack superstars, but they will fight, scratch and claw on every possession.  This is the type of team I want to get behind. 

The 76ers come into the playoffs way overvalued due to their 16-game winning streak.  Now they are being asked to lay 7 points here in Game 1 despite the fact that they will be missing their best player in Joel Embiid.  It’s always tough for young teams like the 76ers to have success in their first go-round in the playoffs, and I expect that to be the case for Philadelphia. 

The Heat have played the 76ers extremely tough this season, and in recent years.  Miami split the season series 2-2 with its two losses both coming on the road by 2 and 6 points, respectively.  Only once in the last 15 meetings have the 76ers beaten the Heat by more than 7 points, which was an 8-point win.  That makes for a 14-1 system backing the Heat pertaining to this 7-point spread.   

The Heat are 15-4 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last two seasons.  Miami is 15-3 ATS in road games after playing two consecutive home games over the last two years.  The Heat are 26-9-2 ATS in their last 37 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Bet the Heat Saturday. 

15* Spurs/Warriors ABC Early ANNIHILATOR on San Antonio +8 

The Golden State Warriors are vulnerable in Round 1 because they are missing their best player in Stephen Curry.  They just haven’t been the same without him down the stretch, and they certainly should not be laying 8 points to the Spurs in Game 1 Saturday. 

The Warriors are just 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games overall.  They have gone just 6-10 SU in their last 16 games.  That’s not the sign of a team that should be this big of a favorite against a Spurs team that played well down the stretch just to get into the playoffs. 

The Spurs are 10-5 SU & 9-6 ATS in their last 15 games overall.  They have been playing playoff basketball for a month now because there was a brief time there where they were in 9th place in the West and in need of a big finish just to get into the playoffs. 

The last two meetings have been impressive by the Spurs.  They only lost 107-110 at Golden State as 11-point underdogs on March 8th in a game in which the Warriors needed a huge fourth quarter just to get a close win.  And the Spurs returned the favor with an 89-75 victory on March 19th at home in their most recent meeting. 

Golden State is 2-14 ATS in its last 16 games vs. a team that wins 51% to 60% of its games on ht season.  The Spurs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven following a win by more than 10 points.  The Warriors are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.  Golden State is 9-24-1 ATS in its last 34 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the Spurs Saturday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Brooklyn Nets -1 

The Boston Celtics will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days here tonight.  They are already short-handed with all of their injuries, and they would be wise to rest all of their starters in this final game before the playoffs. 

The Celtics are locked in to the No. 2 seed, so this game doesn’t matter to them at all.  That’s why we have seen a shift from the opener of Celtics -5.5 to the Nets being 1-point favorites.  It’s a big adjustment, but it’s not big enough.  It’s clear to me that the Nets will win this game. 

Brooklyn has been playing for pride and trying to build chemistry down the stretch.  That’s evident by the fact that the Nets are 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall, including three straight victories by 8 points or more coming in.  They aren’t about to let up now. 

The Nets are 9-1 ATS in road games off a combined score of 215 points or more in three straight games this season.  Boston is 6-17 ATS in home games when playing 6 or more games in 10 days over the last two years.  The Celtics are 1-8 ATS vs. poor defensive teams that allow 110 or more points per game this season.  Brooklyn is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Nets are 4-0 ATS in their last four trips to Boston.  Take the Nets Wednesday. 

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Nuggets/Timberwolves UNDER 214.5 

This is a play-in game between the Nuggets and Timberwolves.  The winner will be the 8th seed in the playoffs, while the loser will either be taking a depressing flight or bus ride home.  With what’s at stake, I fully expect this to be a nervy, defensive battle tonight. 

The Nuggets and Timberwolves recently played on April 5th less than a week ago.  The Nuggets won that game 100-96 at home for 196 combined points.  Now we are seeing a total set of 214.5, which is way too high and I believe there is value with the UNDER because of it. 

Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (Minnesota) - after going under the total by 42 or more points in their last five games, when playing a division opponent are 37-16 (69.8%) since 1996. 

Minnesota is 14-4 UNDER off two or more consecutive unders this season.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Timberwolves last six vs. Western Conference opponents.  The UNDER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday. 

20* NBA DOG OF THE MONTH on Atlanta Hawks +10 

The Atlanta Hawks will be playing their season finale today at home against one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference in the Philadelphia 76ers.  They will be motivated to beat the 76ers, just as they have other playoff teams here recently. 

The Hawks are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They beat Orlando, only lost to Miami by 3 as 13-point road dogs, beat Washington by 6 as 10.5-point road dogs, and beat Boston by 6 as 9.5-point road dogs.  Those efforts show that we are getting tremendous value with them as 10-point home underdogs tonight. 

The 76ers are grossly overvalued right now due to their 14-game winning streak.  They are certainly worthy of being favorites here tonight, but not double-digit road favorites.  Philadelphia hasn’t beaten Atlanta by more than 10 points in any of the last 17 meetings in this series, making for a 17-0 system backing the Hawks pertaining to this 10-point spread. 

Plays against favorites (Philadelphia) - after beating the spread by 54 or more points total in their last 10 games against opponent after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last 10 games are 64-28 (69.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.   

Plays on home teams (Atlanta) revenging a home loss vs. opponent of 10 points or more, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 39-15 (72.2%) ATS over the last five years.  Bet the Hawks Tuesday. 

25* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Denver Nuggets -4 

The Denver Nuggets have really stepped up their game down the stretch with their playoff lives on the line.  They have gone 5-0 in their last five games overall while beating four playoff teams in Oklahoma City, Milwaukee, Indiana and Minnesota, as well as a 134-115 road win at Oklahoma City. 

The Nuggets are now tied with the Timberwolves for the 8th seed, but they currently lose out on the tiebreaker.  They play at Minnesota Wednesday night, so they must keep pace with them with a win here if they want to make the playoffs.  The Timberwolves host the Grizzlies tonight and will surely win that game. 

Portland really has nothing to play for.  The Blazers can either be the 3rd or 4th seed in the West, but that won’t be determined until they play current 4th seed Utah on Wednesday.  They will be looking ahead to that game.  The Blazers are clearly worried more about resting right now as they are 0-3 in their last three games overall and disinterested. 

The favorite is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series.  The home team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings as well.  The Nuggets have won their last two meetings with the Blazers this season, one at home and one on the road.  Bet the Nuggets Monday. 

15* NBA Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Detroit Pistons -6.5 

The Detroit Pistons are playing for more than pride.  They want to see if they can get to .500 on the season as they are currently 38-41.  They have put themselves in this position to consider this season a success by going 8-2 SU & 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. 

The Memphis Grizzlies could care less about winning games right now as they just want the highest draft pick possible.  They are 21-58 on the season.  It’s obvious they are trying to lose when you just look at their injury report. 

Mike Conley, Tyreke Evans, Wayne Selden, Marc Gasol, Chandler Parsons, Jarell Martin, JaMychal Green and Andrew Harrison are all expected to rest today.  They are going to be sending a bunch of D League players out there for this one, purposely trying to lose. 

Plays on road favorites (Detroit) - with a winning percentage between 40% and 49% on the season, on Sunday games are 33-6 (84.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Detroit is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a losing record.  Roll with the Pistons Sunday. 

20* NBA Sunday No Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets +2.5

The Pacers are coming off a 73-92 loss at Toronto.  That loss basically sealed their fate as they are now locked in to the No. 5 seed in the Eastern Conference.  They would be better off resting their players and staying healthy for the playoffs now. 

The Charlotte Hornets have played much better down the stretch and have won five of their last nine games, including a 137-100 win in Orlando last time out.  They want to win their home finale here Sunday to give their home fans a lasting impression. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is a perfect 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Hornets are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four home meetings with the Pacers, winning by 7, 12, 22 and 7 points, respectively.  Bet the Hornets Sunday. 

20* Nuggets/Clippers NBA Saturday No-Brainer on Denver -2 

The Denver Nuggets are 0.5 games out of 8th place in the West, and just one game behind three other teams listed 5th through 7th in the West.  They still have a great shot to make the playoffs, but they are going to likely need to win out to get in. 

The Nuggets have been doing their part as they are 4-0 in their last four games overall, beating four playoff teams in the Thunder, Bucks, Pacers and Timberwolves all in close fashion.  Winning four straight close games the way they have has to have them oozing with confidence right now. 

The Los Angeles Clippers had a shot to make the playoffs with a few weeks left, but now they are 2.5 games out with only 3 games remaining after going 1-3 in their last four games overall.  The life has been sucked out of them, and I don’t expect them to show up at all today. 

The Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.  The Clippers are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 Saturday games.  Los Angeles is 8-20 ATS in its last 28 vs. NBA Northwest Division opponents.  Denver is 38-17 ATS in road games off an ATS loss over the last three seasons.  Bet the Nuggets Saturday. 

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Chicago Bulls +10.5 

The Boston Celtics just lost to the Toronto Raptors.  It was a huge game for them as they entered just two games behind the Raptors.  But after losing that game by 18, they are now essentially locked in to the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference. 

I don’t expect the Celtics to show up at all for this game.  That’s going to make it tough for them to be able to cover this massive double-digit spread.  They are banged up right now without Kyrie Irving and Marcus Smart, and several others are nursing injuries. 

The Bulls continue to play for pride and have been extremely undervalued over the past week.  The Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They have pulled off three straight outright upsets, beating the Magic by 8 on the road as 6.5-point dogs, the Wizards by 17 at home as 7-point dogs and the Hornets at home by 6 as 5.5-point dogs. 

Chicago is a perfect 11-0 ATS off two or more consecutive wins this season.  Boston is 4-15 ATS in home games when playing against a team that wins 25% to 40% of their games over the last two years.  Bet the Bulls Friday. 

20* Timberwolves/Nuggets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 225.5 

This game will have a playoff atmosphere Thursday night.  The 8th place Timberwolves visit the 9th place Nuggets with only one game separating the two.  Both teams are trying to secure a playoff spot, and you can bet the defensive intensity will be as high as any point this season from each squad. 

I think this total has been inflated because Denver has played in some high-scoring affairs of late due to two overtime games in their last three.  But their defense has been much better down the stretch as they’ve tried to hang on for a playoff spot, winning three straight nail biters. 

This has certainly been an UNDER series.  The Timberwolves and Nuggets have combined for 219 or fewer points in 13 of their last 14 meetings.  The only exception was an overtime game.  That makes for a sweet 13-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight’s total set of 225.5.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday. 

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Heat/Hawks UNDER 205.5 

This is one of my favorite UNDER situations in the NBA.  The Hawks and Heat will be playing a home-and-home tonight after Miami beat Atlanta 101-98 for 199 combined points last night.  Now they will travel to play in Atlanta just one night later. 

Teams are obviously very familiar with one another when having to play two days in a row, which certainly favors defense.  And with a total now set at 205.5, it’s simply too high.   

The Heat have Hassan Whiteside back healthy, and he’s one of the top defensive centers in the NBA.  For the Hawks, they recently lost starting PG Dennis Schroeder to a season-ending injury.  He was basically their entire offense, so without him they have been lost. 

The UNDER is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings in this series.  The Heat and Hawks have combined for 199 or fewer points in 10 of those 13 matchups.  Miami is 9-1 UNDER in road games off a win by 3 points or less over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 22-7 in Hawks last 29 games following an ATS win.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday. 

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Denver Nuggets -3 

The Denver Nuggets are two games out of the playoffs with five games remaining.  They have no margin for error right now.  They are coming off back-to-back impressive wins at Oklahoma City and at home against Milwaukee to give themselves a shot. 

The Indiana Pacers are starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers after going 5-0 in their last five games overall.  But they will be running out of gas soon as this will be their fourth consecutive road games in a stretch of six of seven on the road. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 8-2 SU in the last 10 meetings.  Denver is a perfect 8-0 SU in its last eight home meetings with Indiana.  The Nuggets have a great home-court advantage this season as they are 28-10 on their home floor. 

Indiana is 5-15 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons.  The Nuggets are 18-7-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings, including 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings inside the Pepsi Center.  Bet the Nuggets Tuesday. 

15* Warriors/Thunder TNT Tuesday No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -4.5 

The Golden State Warriors are locked in to the No. 2 seed in the West.  They have nothing to play for the rest of the way and cannot be trusted.  The Warriors are just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games overall. 

Injuries and a lack of motivation have been the biggest reasons for the Warriors’ struggles down the stretch.  They are still without Steph Curry, Andre Iguodala and Omri Casspi, and they recently lost Patrick McCaw to a gruesome back injury.  Meanwhile, the Thunder are at full strength. 

Oklahoma City still has a lot to play for with four games remaining.  The Thunder are currently 5th in the West, just 0.5 games behind the Spurs for the No. 4 seed.  They want that No. 4 so that they can get home-court advantage in the first round.  And they are also just one game clear of Utah and Minnesota, so they don’t want to fall further in the standings and have to play either Golden State or Houston in the first round. 

Golden State is 1-11 ATS when playing against a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) in the second half of the season this season.  The Warriors are 0-9 ATS in their last nine games following a straight up win.  Oklahoma City is 41-19-3 ATS in its last 63 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Take the Thunder Tuesday. 

20* Michigan/Villanova Championship Game No-Brainer on Villanova -7 

The Michigan Wolverines have had the easiest path to the Championship Game of nearly any team in NCAA Tournament history.  They haven’t had to face a 5 seed or lower in their entire path to the Final Four.  They’ve faced a 14, No. 6, No. 7, No. 9 and a No. 11 on their route here. 

Certainly, the Wolverines have been impressive, but now they have finally met their match in Villanova.  I don’t remember seeing a team quite as dominant as these Wildcats in the NCAA Tournament.  They have beaten all five opponents by 12 points or more and by an average of 17.8 points per game. 

The Wildcats have no weaknesses.  They are an elite defensive team, and they are the most efficient offensive team in the country.  They set a Final Four record by making 18 shots from beyond the 3-point line against Kansas.  But they can beat you inside and out.  It’s not a team I want to be fading with the title on the line. 

Villanova is 25-9 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  The Wildcats are 14-3 ATS after a game where they made 13 or more 3-point shots this season.  Villanova is 53-21-1 ATS in its last 75 non-conference games.  The Wildcats are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. Big Ten opponents.  Bet Villanova Monday. 

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Denver Nuggets -4 

The Denver Nuggets are in must-win mode with six games remaining.  They trail 7th and 8th place Utah and Minnesota by exactly two games each for a playoff spot.  They almost need to win out to get in, and with four of their final six games at home, they have a shot. 

The Nuggets have played well at home all season.  They are 27-10 on their home floor.  And they just beat Milwaukee 134-123 on the road on February 15th in their first meeting this season.  The Nuggets are now 5-1 SU in their last six meetings with the Bucks.  They are also 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings. 

The Bucks are just 6-12 ATS in their last 18 games overall.  They don’t have much to play for the rest of the way except for seeding, which doesn’t make that much of a difference between the 6th, 7th and 8th seeds in the East.  And the Bucks have some key injuries right now with Malcolm Brogdon and Matthew Dellavedova out, Thon Maker doubtful and John Henson questionable. 

Milwaukee is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Denver is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.  The Nuggets are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 home meetings with the Bucks.  Bet the Nuggets Sunday. 

15* NBA Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Los Angeles Clippers -2.5 

The Los Angeles Clippers are in must-win mode with six games remaining.  They trail 7th and 8th place Utah and Minnesota by exactly two games each for a playoff spot.  They will certainly need to finish strong  to get in, and with five of their final six games at home they have a great shot. 

The Clippers have won four of their last six coming in.  That includes upset road wins at Milwaukee and Toronto.  Their only two losses came on the road at Portland and at Indiana in closely-contested battles. 

That sets the Clippers up for a revenge game here after losing 104-109 in Indiana on March 23rd just a week ago.  They don’t have to wait long for their shot at revenge, which only adds to their motivation here tonight. 

The Clippers are 10-2 ATS when playing eight or more games in 14 days this season.  The Pacers are 5-15 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two years.  Los Angeles is 16-7 ATS in its last 23 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Take the Clippers Sunday. 

15* Warriors/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento +8.5 

The Golden State Warriors are a mess right now.  They have too many injuries they are dealing with, and they don’t care about winning games because they are locked in to the No. 2 seed.  They are simply playing out the string at this point. 

That’s why they cannot be 8.5-point road favorites against the Sacramento Kings tonight.  The Warriors are just 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games.  They are also just 3-7 SU in their last 10 games.  They have gotten some guys healthier of late, but they are far from full strength. 

The Kings have already upset the short-handed Warriors twice this season.  They Kings won 110-106 as 12.5-point road underdogs on November 27th, and they won 98-93 as 8.5-point road dogs on March 16th. 

The Warriors are 0-9 ATS in their last nine games when playing on one days’ rest.  Golden State is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 when its opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  The Kings are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a road winning % greater than .600.  The Warriors are 11-26 ATS in their last 37 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Take the Kings Saturday. 

25* NCAA Tournament TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Kansas/Villanova UNDER 155 

Oddsmakers have set the bar way too high in this Final Four matchup between Villanova and Kansas.  They are expecting an 80-75 final, and I’m just not seeing it.  This bet on the UNDER is my favorite totals bet of the entire NCAA Tournament. 

Villanova is an elite defensive team that gives up just 70.2 points per game and 42.7% shooting on the season, including only 32.2% from 3-point range.  Kansas only gives up 71.3 points per game on 42.3% shooting on the year, including 32.7% from 3-point range. 

I think a big reason this total has been set so high is because Kansas went over against Duke last game in an 85-81 final in overtime.  But that game was only 72-72 at the end of regulation for 144 combined points, and Duke is an elite offensive team.  Having Azabuike back healthy has done wonders for this KU team defensively as he’s an elite shot blocker and rebounder. 

No question Villanova is a very good offensive team, but even they will struggle to reach 80 points against Kansas.  Villanova has allowed 68 or fewer points in five of its last six games coming in, including just 59 against Texas Tech last time out.   

I think both teams having nearly a week to prepare for each other also favors the UNDER.  These are two elite head coaches who will have their defenses prepared to stop the strengths of the opposing offenses.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday. 

15* Loyola/Michigan Final Four No-Brainer on Michigan -5 

I’ve been backing both Loyola and Michigan this entire NCAA Tournament with regularity.  It has worked out very well for me.  But when push comes to shove here, I have to side with Michigan for a number of reasons. 

Four starters, an 11-seed or lower has never made the Championship Game.  It has been a great run for Loyola, but they will finally meet their match here in Michigan. 

The Wolverines are the hottest team left, going 13-0 SU & 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They have beaten Purdue by 9, Michigan State by 11 and Ohio State by 12 prior to the tournament.  They have handled their business with relative ease in the NCAA Tournament with the exception of a tougher-than-expected game against Houston. 

Loyola has been winning with smoke and mirrors, admittedly.  They were fortunate to win their first three games by a combined 4 points, including two buzzer-beaters.  And they were fortunate for an easy path.  They got to face Nevada in the Sweet 16 and Kansas State in the Elite 8 because of all the madness in that region. 

Michigan is a different animal.  The Wolverines are legitimately a top defensive team in the country.  They give up just 63.1 points per game on 42.4% shooting.  And I love the matchup for them against Loyola’s barrage of 3-point shooters. 

Michigan only allowed 5 made 3-pointers per game and only 16 attempts per game on 33.1% shooting.  They run their opponents off the 3-point line. You have to be able to penetrate to beat them, and Loyola doesn’t have those penetrators.  They are more of a passing team to find their shots, but Michigan will be ready for it. 

The Wolverines are 7-0 ATS vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game after 15-plus games over the last two seasons.  The Ramblers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven vs. Big Ten opponents.  The Wolverines are 13-3-2 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Michigan is 35-17-4 ATS in its last 56 neutral site games.  Take Michigan Saturday. 

25* Clippers/Blazers ESPN GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles +6.5 

The Los Angeles Clippers are quietly making a push toward the playoffs.  They are now just one game behind the Utah Jazz for the 8th and final spot in the Western Conference.  They have seven games remaining, and you can bet Doc Rivers’ team will be laying it all on the line. 

The Clippers have gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  Their two most impressive wins both came on the road as they won 127-120 as 6-point underdogs at Milwaukee and 117-106 as 8.5-point dogs at Toronto.  They are more than capable of pulling off the upset here, let alone staying within 6.5 points. 

The Portland Trail Blazers don’t have a whole lot to play for the rest of the way.  They are stuck in 3rd place, 2.5 games ahead of 4th place.  That’s why it wouldn’t be surprising if Damian Lillard sits a second consecutive game tonight for personal reasons.  The Blazers are already without starter Maurice Harkless, and Lillard is questionable. 

The Clippers want revenge from a 122-109 home loss to the Blazers on March 18th less than two weeks ago as well.  Home-court advantage has meant very little in this series of late as the road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. 

The Clippers are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 road games.  Los Angeles is 8-0 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over a division opponent this season.  The Clippers are 7-0 ATS in road games after covering three of their last four this season.  Los Angeles is 10-1 ATS when playing 8 or more games in 14 days this season.  Bet the Clippers Friday. 

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/Jazz UNDER 197 

The Utah Jazz will be laying it all on the line defensively tonight to get a win.  They are in 8th place, but just one game ahead of the Clippers.  They will be locked in on the defensive end, and defense has been their staple all season. 

But what I really like about this UNDER is the recent head-to-head history between Memphis and Utah.  These teams always seem to play in low-scoring affairs when they get together. 

Indeed, the UNDER is 7-2 in the last nine meetings.  The Jazz and Grizzlies have combined for 198 or fewer points in each of their last 20 meetings.  They have combined for 197 or fewer in 18 of those 20.  That’s an 18-2 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight’s total set of 197. 

Memphis is 10-1 UNDER in Friday games this season.  The UNDER is 8-1 in Grizzlies last nine vs. Western Conference teams.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Jazz last six home games. The UNDER is 8-2 in Jazz last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday. 

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Detroit Pistons +1.5 

The return of starting PG Reggie Jackson to the lineup has sparked the Pistons.  They have gone 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  Jackson played in each of the last four games.  They beat the Kings by 16, the Suns by 27, the Bulls by 22 and the Lakers by 6, so not only are they winning, they are dominating.  Their only loss came at Houston by 4 as 10.5-point underdogs. 

The Wizards are just kind of going through the motions right now.  It’s like they are trying to get the No. 7 seed, which would be smart of them because they’d face the injury-ravaged Celtics in the first round if they can get there.  They are only 1.5 games ahead of 7th place Miami and would be better off losing this one. 

The Wizards are just 5-8 SU & 3-8-2 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  John Wall is questionable to return tonight, and even if he does return he’ll be rusty and play limited minutes.  With the way the Pistons are playing right now, they are good enough to beat Washington regardless of Wall’s status.  And they want revenge to avoid the season sweep after losing each of their first three meetings to the Wizards this year. 

Plays on home favorites (Detroit) - revenging two consecutive straight up losses to opponent as a favorite, who are off two or more consecutive home wins are 36-13 (73.5%) ATS since 1996.  The Pistons are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.  The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take the Pistons Thursday. 

15* Penn State/Utah NIT ANNIHILATOR on Utah +4 

I’ve been riding the Utah Utes hard toward the end of the season and I’m not about to stop now.  Especially with them showing so much value as 4-point underdogs to the Penn State Nittany Lions in the NIT Championship Game. 

The Utes are 10-2 SU in their last 12 games overall.  They are also 11-4-1 ATS int heir last 16 games.  Four of their last five wins have come by double-digits, with the exception of their gutsy 69-64 victory over a game Western Kentucky team in the Semifinals.   

And the Utes got to play the early game on Tuesday, so they were able to come back out to the court and watch Penn State and scout them.  I think that’s a huge advantage for the team that played the early game in these types of situations where there is only one day in between games.  The Utes will be the more prepared team because of it. 

The Utes are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a win.  Penn State is 12-25 ATS in its last 37 games after having covered six or seven of its last eight games coming in.  The Nittany Lions are being overvalued tonight.  Roll with Utah Thursday. 

20* Cavs/Hornets NBA TV No-Brainer on Charlotte PK 

The Charlotte Hornets have decided to finally play up to their potential down the stretch.  Now, with the Cleveland Cavaliers coming to town, there’s no doubt they will be laying it all on the line to try and beat Lebron James and company tonight. 

The Hornets are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall, outscoring their opponents by an average of 20.0 points per game.  Dwight Howard has been a beast down low, averaging 24.3 points and 22 rebounds per game during this stretch.  Kemba Walker has scored 24 or more points in five straight. 

The Cavaliers are in a tough spot here as they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  They haven’t had two days off in a row since the All-Star Break.  Plus, they are short-handed right now as they are likely to be without both Kevin Love and Kyle Korver tonight. 

Cleveland is 4-17 ATS off a blowout loss by 15 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Cavs are 1-11 ATS after scoring 85 points or less over the last three years.  Cleveland is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Bet the Hornets Wednesday. 

20* Bucks/Clippers TNT Tuesday No-Brainer on Los Angeles -3 

The Los Angeles Clippers still have a great shot to make the playoffs.  They are just two games behind 8th place Minnesota for the 8th and final spot.  And the Clippers have a reasonable schedule the rest of the way with six of their final nine games at home. 

The Clippers have stayed alive by pulling off upset road wins at Milwaukee 127-120 as 6-point underdogs and at Toronto 117-106 as 8.5-point underdogs.  Now they get to host the Milwaukee Bucks, who have been struggling down the stretch. 

The Bucks are just 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games overall.  They don’t have much to play for as they are basically assured a playoff spot, but it’s either going to be the 6th, 7th or 8th seed no matter what.  Their only concern down the stretch is probably trying to maneuver to face Boston in the first round. 

Los Angeles is 8-1 ATS when playing eight or more games in 14 days this season.  Milwaukee is 12-21 ATS when revenging a loss this season.  The Bucks are 16-34-2 ATS in their last 52 games when playing on one days’ rest.  The Clippers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.  Bet the Clippers Tuesday. 

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Sacramento Kings -2.5 

This young Sacramento Kings team is looking to build toward the future.  They aren’t concerned with where they will be drafting at all.  That has been evident by the fact that the Kings have gone 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They have made me a lot of money down the stretch, and I’ll gladly back them as only 2.5-point home favorites over the Dallas Mavericks tonight. 

Dallas owner Mark Cuban wanted to tank down the stretch, but it didn’t go over to well with a couple players.  But now it appears they have given in as the Mavericks are 0-5 SU in their last five games overall.  They have a ton of injury issues right now with Wesley Matthews and Jose Barca out, and Dwight Powell, Dirk and Dennis Smith Jr. all banged up and questionable. 

Sacramento has had Dallas’ number in recent years, going 7-3 SU & 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  They won in Dallas 114-109 as 7-point underdogs in their last meeting on February 13th.  Given that they are by far the healthier team now, look for the Kings to take care of business at home tonight. 

Dallas is 1-10 ATS in road games when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons.  It is losing by 9.3 points per game on average in this spot.  The Mavericks are 6-16 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 points or more this season.  Dallas is 6-18 ATS in its last 24 games vs. a team with a winning % of less than .400.  Sacramento is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning % below .600. Take the Kings Tuesday. 

15* Western Kentucky/Utah NIT ANNIHILATOR on Utah +2 

The Utah Utes are playing like an NCAA Tournament team down the stretch.  They are 9-2 SU in their last 11 games overall.  They are also 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games.  They are being undervalued once again tonight as underdogs to Western Kentucky in the NIT Semifinals. 

Each of Utah’s last four wins have come by double-digits.  That includes a 26-point win over LSU and a 9-point road win at St. Mary’s in their last two games to punch their tickets to Madison Square Garden.  This is a team that I have been riding and will continue to ride tonight. 

No question Western Kentucky has been impressive as well in beating Boston College, USC and Oklahoma State.  But both USC and Oklahoma State didn’t take the NIT too seriously because they each felt like they should have made the NCAA Tournament.  Now they face a team that really wants to be here in Utah. 

The Utes are 37-17 ATS in their last 54 games off a game where they committed 8 or fewer turnovers.  Utah is 47-22 ATS in its last 69 games after two straight games where it was called for 15 or fewer fouls.  The Utes are 8-2-1 ATS int heir last 11 games following a win.  Roll with Utah Tuesday. 

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -4.5 

The Detroit Pistons have been playing great to close out the season.  They are starting to show what they are capable of when they are healthy, which recently happened with the return of Reggie Jackson to the lineup.  They are building for next year and aren’t taking games off like many of the rest of the teams in the league. 

The Pistons are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They went into Sacramento and won by 16 as 4-point favorites, won by 27 at Phoenix as 8-point favorites and crushed Chicago by 22 as 13-point favorites.  Their only loss came by 4 at Houston as 10.5-point dogs, which is the hottest team in the NBA. 

The Lakers are not playing well down the stretch now that they’ve officially been eliminated from the playoffs.  They are just 1-4 SU & 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  Their only win came 100-93 over Memphis, a Grizzlies team that is clearly tanking.  And the Lakers have some significant injuries right now as Isaiah Thomas is out, Brandon Ingram is doubtful and Julius Randle is questionable. 

Detroit is 21-8 ATS in home games when the total is 210 to 219.5 over the last three seasons.  The Pistons are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games when playing on one days’ rest.  Detroit is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents.  The Pistons are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Pistons Monday. 

15* Jazz/Warriors NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah -5.5 

The Golden State Warriors are stuck in limbo.  They cannot catch the Rockets for the No. 1 seed, and they are well ahead of the No. 3 seed.  They are basically locked into the No. 2 seed.  That’s why I question their motivation the rest of the way, and they are more than happy to just rest all of their injured players now. 

And boy have the Warriors been hit hard by injury.  They are playing without their three best players in Kevin Durant, Steph Curry and Klay Thompson.  Omri Casspi is still out, and Draymond Green, Patrick McCaw and Nick Young are also showing up on the injury report.  That’s why the Warriors are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall. 

The Jazz are a team nobody wants to face right now.  They have gone 22-4 SU in their last 26 games overall.  They are certainly good enough to go on the road and beat the depleted Warriors, who are not a playoff team in their current state. 

Plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Utah) - a good team that outscores its opponents by 3-plus points per game, after allowing 55 points or more in the first half of two straight games are 75-35 (68.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Utah is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Warriors are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following a win.  Roll with the Jazz Sunday. 

20* Duke/Kansas Elite 8 No-Brainer on Kansas +3 

The Kansas Jayhawks have had the luxury of playing close to home by earning the No. 1 seed.  Their first two games were in Wichita, KS, and their last two are in Omaha, NE.  They have had a huge following and it has certainly been an advantage. 

And the Jayhawks have been dominant.  They have held double-digit leads late in all three of their games against Penn, Seton Hall and Clemson.  Both Seton Hall and Clemson made runs late with the game out of reach already to make the final scores closer than they appear, and cost bettors who backed Kansas, including myself. 

Duke has faced the easier schedule to get here and is getting too much respect from oddsmakers as the favorite in this matchup.  Kansas should be favored.  Duke has had to beat Iona, Rhode Island and Syracuse.  This will be by far their biggest challenge, whereas Kansas has already played two stout opponents in Seton Hall and Clemson. 

Duke also hasn’t faced a team that can shoot the 3-pointer like Kansas.  The Jayhawks made at least 10 shots from 3-point range for the 19th time this season against Clemson.  They have gone 17-2 in those games.  Duke’s zone defense has been getting a lot of headlines, but the Jayhawks have the type of team that can actually exploit it.  Plus, Udoka Azubuike is back healthy and playing well after scoring 14 points with 11 rebounds against Clemson. 

The Jayhawks are 8-2-1 ATS int heir last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Kansas is 5-2 ATS in its last seven vs. ACC opponents.  The Jayhawks are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with Duke.  Bet Kansas Sunday. 

15* NBA Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on San Antonio Spurs -2.5 

Back on March 13th, the San Antoni Spurs were in 9th place in the West and in jeopardy of missing the playoffs for the first time since 1996-97.  But then they got healthy and showed their resiliency.  The Spurs have gone 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their six games since. 

Now the Spurs are only 2.5-point road favorites against a banged-up Milwaukee Bucks team that is now playing well at all right now.  The Bucks are just 5-9 SU & 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  They are without both Malcolm Brogdon and Matthew Dellavedova still, and now Giannis Antetokounmpo is highly questionable with an ankle injury. 

The Spurs are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a win.  San Antonio is 7-0 ATS when its opponent allows 100 points or more in its previous game.  The Bucks are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.  Milwaukee is 1-7 ATS in its last eight vs. Western Conference opponents.  San Antonio is 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to Milwaukee.  Take the Spurs Sunday. 

20* FSU/Michigan Elite 8 No-Brainer on Michigan -4.5 

I’ve been backing Michigan the entire tournament and I’m not about to stop now.  They completely lucked out with the way this has played out as they are clearly the best team among the Elite 8 remaining in the left side of the bracket.  But they have done their part since early February. 

Indeed, the Wolverines are 12-0 SU & 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  They have beaten Ohio State (by 12), Michigan State (by 11) and Purdue (by 9) to close out the Big Ten season.  And while they were fortunate to get by Houston, they have won and covered easily in their other two games in the NCAA Tournament with a 14-point win over Montana and a 29-point win over Texas A&M. 

I think Florida State is easily one of the worst teams left in the tournament.  The Seminoles didn’t pick up many impressive wins all season, and then they come out of nowhere to beat both Xavier and Gonzaga these last two games.  But I think their true colors show here against one of the best teams they have faced all season in Michigan tonight. 

I also like the fact that Michigan got to play the early game on Thursday.  That means they were able to sit around after beating Texas A&M and watch the FSU/Gonzaga game.  That’s a huge advantage for the team that played the first game in terms of rest and preparation heading into the next round when there’s only one day in between games. 

The Seminoles are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 vs. Big Ten opponents.  The Wolverines are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Michigan is 34-16-2 ATS in its last 52 games overall.  The Wolverines are 35-17-3 ATS in their last 55 neutral site games.  Bet Michigan Saturday. 

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on New Orleans Pelicans +8.5 

The New Orleans Pelicans have had to dig deep here of late.  They had to play 5 games in 6 days due to a game getting postponed.  What’d they do?  Just go 4-1 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in those five games.  And while most teams would have a letdown off such a tough stretch, that won’t be the case for the Pelicans tonight. 

That’s because they’ll be extra motivated for revenge against Houston after just losing to the Rockets 101-107 at home as 8.5-point underdogs on March 17th exactly a week ago today.  They didn’t even have Jrue Holiday for that game, but now he’s back and healthy.  The same cannot be said for the Rockets. 

The Rockets are likely to be without Chris Paul once again tonight due to a hamstring injury.  And the Rockets basically have the No. 1 seed wrapped up in the West, so they don’t need to force the issue.  They could also be without Luck Mbah a Moute, who left last game with a knee injury.  It was a lackluster effort for the Rockets as they only beat the Pistons 100-96 as 10.5-point favorites on Thursday.  Don’t expect them to have their ‘A’ game tonight, either. 

New Orleans is a perfect 10-0 ATS in road games after scoring 110 points or more this season.  It is coming back to score 118.2 points per game next time out and outscore the opponent by 6.5 points per game.  The Pelicans are hitting on all cylinders offensively right now and have what it takes to match Houston, especially if Paul and Mbah a Moute are both out as expected.  The Rockets are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games.  Roll with the Pelicans Saturday. 

15* Loyola/K-State Elite 8 ANNIHILATOR on Loyola-Chicago +1.5 

I’ve been riding Loyola-Chicago hard through the first three rounds of the NCAA Tournament.  I’m not about to stop now when they’re up against arguably the worst team they’ve had to face yet in Kansas State in the Elite 8.  They already dispatched of Miami, Tennessee and Nevada, and yet here they are once again underdogs when they should be the favorites. 

The Ramblers just have no weaknesses.  They play elite defense, giving up just 62.4 points per game and 41.6% shooting, including only 32.9% from 3-point range.  Offensively, they shoot 50.7% as a team and 39.7% from 3-point range with a plethora of their regular players being able to knock down the 3-pointer.  Plus, they share the basketball better than anyone in the tournament, averaging 16 assists per game. 

Kansas State caught a break getting this far.  They beat an injury-plagued Creighton team, got to face UMBC after their upset over Virginia, and caught Kentucky on an off night where the Wildcats couldn’t throw the ball into the ocean, especially from the free throw line.  And K-State got hot from 3-point range against Kentucky despite the fact that they only shoot it at a 34.5% clip for the season.  Their luck runs out tonight. 

I also like the fact that Loyola-Chicago got to play the early game on Thursday.  That means they were able to sit around after beating Nevada and watch the K-State/Kentucky game.  That’s a huge advantage for the team that played the first game in terms of rest and preparation heading into the next round when there’s only one day in between games. 

Kansas State is 0-7 ATS off three or more consecutive wins this season.  Loyola is 10-0 ATS after allowing 30 points or less in the first half of two straight games this season.  The Ramblers are 6-0 ATS when playing with one or less days’ rest over the last two years.  Loyola is 5-0 ATS in its last five neutral site games.  These four trends combine for a perfect 28-0 system backing the Ramblers.  Take Loyola-Chicago Saturday. 

15* Texas Tech/Purdue Sweet 16 No-Brainer on Texas Tech +2 

The Texas Tech Red Raiders were the best team in the Big 12 for the majority of the season.  They went into Kansas and won early in the conference season back when they were at full strength. 

But then injuries hit and the Red Raiders struggled down the stretch.  Leading scorer Keenan Evans had turf toe, and the Red Raiders went 2-5 during that stretch.  Zach Smith also missed 14 games with an injury.   

But now both Evans and Smith are back to being healthy, and the Red Raiders are playing like they did earlier this season.  They are basically 24-4 in games in which Evans had been healthy.  This is a dangerous team and one capable of a Final Four run because they are loaded everywhere and play elite defense.  They give up just 64.6 points per game and 40.3% shooting on the season. 

Purdue suffered a big blow when center Isaac Haas (14.7 ppg, 5.7 rpg) suffered a broken elbow in the Round of 64.  The Boilermakers were fortunate to get by Butler 76-73 without him last round, but now they take a step up in class here. 

The Boilermakers have been struggling for quite some time anyway, going just 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall.  They are also 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games following a win.  Take Texas Tech Friday. 

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -2.5

The San Antonio Spurs have responded well.  Just over a week ago they were in 9th place in the West and in jeopardy of missing the playoffs for the first time since the 1996-97 season.  But they knew they had a great stretch coming up with a six-game home stand. 

The Spurs have taken advantage by going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  They have won three times by 14 points or more with four of their five wins coming against playoff teams.  Look for them to cap off this 6-game home stand with another win and cover at home against Utah. 

The Spurs will be highly motivated for a win to avoid the season sweep against Utah, which has won the first three meetings.  The Spurs are 39-8 SU & 30-14-3 ATS in their last 47 home meetings with the Jazz.  And now they catch a tired Jazz team that will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days following a 119-112 win in Dallas last night. 

Plays on favorites of 3 to 9.5 points (San Antonio) - after leading their last three games by 5-plus points at halftime against opponent after scoring 115 points or more are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Spurs are 11-3 ATS in home games off a home win this season.  Bet the Spurs Friday. 

15* Clemson/Kansas Sweet 16 ANNIHILATOR on Kansas -4.5 

Because they earned a No. 1 seed, the Kansas Jayhawks have had the luxury of playing near home.  They played in Wichita, KS the first two rounds, and now they get to play in Omaha, NE the next two rounds.  They will certainly have a big home-court advantage for this Sweet 16 matchup with Clemson. 

I think this line is lower than it should be for two reasons.  One, Kansas failed to cover as 4.5-point favorites in an 83-79 win over Seton Hall.  But Seton Hall couldn’t miss from 3-point range down the stretch as the Jayhawks couldn’t sustain their double-digit lead.  And the Pirates even got a 3-pointer at the buzzer to cover. 

Conversely, Clemson had its best game of the season in an 84-53 win over rival Auburn.  But that Auburn team was fading down the stretch due to injuries and was ripe for the picking.  They had nearly lost in the Round of 64 the game before.  So Clemson’s win over Auburn looks more impressive than it really was. 

Kansas just got back stud center Udoka Azubuike (13.2 ppg, 6.9 rpg) for the Round of 32 matchup with Seton Hall.  Now with a game under his belt, and with four days off since their win over the Pirates Saturday, Azubuike should be back in game shape and ready to dominate.  Clemson is undermanned inside and will have a really difficult time dealing with him. 

Clemson is 0-6 ATS after leading its last two games by 10-plus points at the half over the last two seasons.  Kansas is 8-1-1 ATS in it last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Jayhawks are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. ACC opponents.  The Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. Big 12 foes.  Roll with Kansas Friday. 

15* Hawks/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento -1.5 

The Sacramento Kings are rested and ready to go tonight.  They have had two days off since last playing on Monday in a disappointing home loss to the Pistons.  But they were without one of their best scorers in Bogdan Bogdanovic for that game, and he is expected to return to the lineup tonight. 

The Hawks ended a six-game losing streak with a shocking 99-94 win at Utah as 13.5-point underdogs last time out.  Dennis Schroeder had a career-high 41 points in the win.  Off such a big victory, it’s only human nature for the Hawks to suffer a letdown here against the Kings their next time out. 

Home-court advantage has been big in this series as the home team is a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Sacramento is 8-1 ATS in its last nine vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Kings are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Take the Kings Thursday. 

25* Sweet 16 GAME OF THE YEAR on Kentucky -5.5 

The Kansas State Wildcats caught a lucky break getting UMBC in the Round of 32 after the Retrievers upset Virginia in the biggest upset in tournament history.  They did not play well against UMBC, and were fortunate to come away with a sloppy 50-43 victory as 10-point favorites.  Their luck runs out in the Sweet 16. 

Now they have to go up against the buzz saw that is Kentucky.  In typical John Calipari fashion, his young team has gotten better as the season has progressed and they have hit their stride.  Indeed, the Wildcats are 9-1 SU & 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  And now they are only being asked to lay 5.5 points to a middling Big 12 team that was fortunate just to get into the NCAA Tournament. 

Not only have the Wildcats been winning during this run, they’ve been dominating.  Seven of their nine wins have come by double-digits, including victories over fellow NCAA Tournament teams Alabama (by 10), Arkansas (by 15), Missouri (by 21), Alabama (by 23) and Buffalo (by 20).  This game against Kansas State is actually a step down in class compared to what they’ve been up against recently. 

Kentucky is 31-15-5 ATS in their last 51 neutral site games, including 7-1 ATS in neutral site games this season.  Kansas State is 1-5 ATS in its last six non-conference games.  Bet Kentucky Thursday. 

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Lakers/Pelicans UNDER 230 

The New Orleans Pelicans have to play their 3rd game in 3 days tonight.  They had to reschedule a game which put themselves in this position.  Clearly, they will be as tired as they have been at any point this season.  As a result, I look for this game against the Lakers to be played at a slow pace, and for the tired legs of the Pelicans to result in a poor shooting performance. 

The Lakers are 4-0 to the UNDER in their last four games.  They have combined for 215, 223, 183 and 210 points in their last four games.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Pelicans last five games with combined scores of 191, 208, 197, 220 and 188 points.  Given those numbers, this 230-point total has been set way too high tonight. 

I big reason for the Lakers going under recently is that they are playing without leading scorer Brandon Ingram (16.2 ppg).  Jrue Holiday missed the first game of this three-game set due to the flu, and he needed intravenous fluids at halftime to get through their 96-92 win over the Pacers last night.  So they don’t have their floor general at full strength right now. 

Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (NEW ORLEANS) - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, in March games are 75-37 (67%) over the last five seasons.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Thursday. 

20* Texas A&M/Michigan Sweet 16 No-Brainer on Michigan -2.5 

The line value is clearly with Michigan in this one.  Texas A&M was a 7-point underdog North Carolina in its last game.  But after its best game of the season, it is now just a 2.5-point underdog to Michigan.  I look at UNC and Michigan as pretty equal teams, if anything the Wolverines are better. 

After their best game of the season, obviously the Aggies are overvalued right now.  And couple that with the fact that the Wolverines are coming off a fortunate buzzer-beating win over Houston, and it’s easy to see why this line has been adjusted so much.  But I think it’s too much, and Michigan is more than 2.5 points better than Texas A&M on a neutral. 

I think North Carolina was overrated and Houston was underrated as well.  That was a rare test for Michigan here to close out the season.  The Wolverines have been dominating, going 11-0 SU & 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Nine of those 11 wins have come by 9 points or more, including victories over the best in the Big Ten in Ohio State (by 12), Michigan State (by 11) and Purdue (by 9). 

Texas A&M is 0-7 ATS after allowing 30 points or less in the first half of two straight games overall rate last two seasons.  The Aggies are 3-11 ATS after scoring 85 points or more over the last three years.  Texas A&M is 2-9 ATS in road games after having won four of their last five games over the last two seasons.  The Wolverines are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 neutral site games.  The Aggies are 7-22-1 ATS in their last 30 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.  Take Michigan Thursday. 

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Orlando Magic +8 

The Orlando Magic have continued to play for pride.  They beat Milwaukee, and gave both Boston and Toronto a run for their money in their last three games.  Well, Toronto and Boston are the two best teams in the East.  Now they play another Eastern Conference playoff team in Philadelphia and are catching 8 points at home tonight. 

The 76ers are being overvalued coming off four consecutive victories.  But this is a tough spot for them as they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 8 days.  I don’t believe they’ll have much left in the tank for the Magic tonight. 

Philadelphia is 4-12 ATS in road games after playing a home game this season.  The Magic are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games following a loss.  The 76ers are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 road games.  Philadelphia is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 Thursday games.  Orlando is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Bet the Magic Thursday. 

15* Utah/St. Mary’s NIT Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah +7 

The way the Utah Utes are playing to close out the season, they certainly should not be 7-point underdogs to St. Mary’s with a trip to Madison Square Garden on the line tonight.  The Utes are 8-2 SU & 6-3-1 ATS in their last 10 games, and 11-4 SU & 9-4-2 ATS in their last 15. 

There’s no question the Utes are the more rested team here after they made easy work of LSU in a 95-71 victory on Monday.  Meanwhile, the Gaels were in a dog fight with Washington in an 85-81 victory as 11-point favorites.  And Utah is a better team that Washington in my opinion. 

The Gaels aren’t playing well enough down the stretch to warrant being 7-point favorites, either.  They are still disappointed they didn’t make the NCAA Tournament.  They have gone just 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall, consistently being overvalued by oddsmakers. 

These teams have played six games against common opponents this season.  Utah has gone 5-1 in those games and outscored those teams by an average of 10.3 points per game.  St. Mary’s has gone 4-2 in those games while only outscoring those teams by 3.7 points per game.  Common opponents are a great way to compare teams, and it shows that Utah is actually the better team in this matchup. 

Utah is 8-2 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more this season.  The Utes are 6-0 ATS after a game where they made 13 or more 3-point shots over the last three years.  St. Mary’s is 3-11 ATS when playing with one or less days’ rest this season.  The Gaels are 1-7 ATS vs. good defensive teams that allow 42% shooting or less this season.  St. Mary’s is 1-5 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Utah Wednesday. 

20* Raptors/Cavs ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Cleveland -1.5 

The Cleveland Cavaliers have won three of their last four games with their lone loss coming at red-hot Portland.  They are rested having yesterday off and will be highly motivated for a victory tonight with the top team in the Eastern Conference coming to town.  They want to show that they are still the kings of the East. 

This is a very tough rest situation for the Raptors.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, their 5th game in 7 days, and their 10th game in 16 days.  That’s about as difficult as it gets in terms of rest situations.  Plus, the Raptors could be without two key players in DeMar DeRozan and Fred VanVleet, who are both questionable with thigh and wrist injuries, respectively. 

Cleveland is 8-1 SU & 6-3 ATS in its last nine home meetings with Toronto.  Rarely will you get the opportunity to back the Cavs as this small of a home favorite, so we’ll take advantage tonight.  The Raptors are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games when playing on 0 days’ rest.  Bet the Cavaliers Wednesday. 

20* Rockets/Blazers TNT GAME OF THE MONTH on Portland +5 

What more do the Portland Trail Blazers have to do to get some respect?  They have gone 15-1 SU & 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games overall.  And yet they’re still 5-point home underdogs to the Houston Rockets tonight. 

The Blazers have really some some damage at home.  They are 18-1 SU & 17-2 ATS in their last 19 home games.  It will be a packed house with the Houston Rockets coming to town tonight.  Look for the Blazers to pull off the upset, though we’ll take the points for some added insurance. 

I question Houston’s motivation the rest of the way.  The Rockets basically have the No. 1 seed in the West wrapped up.  They are 3.5 games ahead of the Warriors, who are without Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Kevin Durant right now.  They know they can basically coast to the finish line now and still get the No. 1 seed. 

The Blazers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Rockets are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Blazers Tuesday. 

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -8.5 

The New Orleans Pelicans are on a mission to make the playoffs.  They are currently the No. 7 seed in the West at 40-30 on the season, but they are just 2.5 games ahead of 9th place L.A. Clippers.  They cannot afford to take any teams lightly the rest of the way, and they certainly haven’t been. 

Indeed, the Pelicans are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 12-4 SU & 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games overall.  Two of those losses came without Anthony Davis, who is back healthy and playing at an MVP level.  They just blasted Boston 108-89 at home last time out. 

The Mavericks are not healthy and have nothing to play for.  Both Dennis Smith Jr. and Wesley Matthews are out, while Jose Barea is questionable.  The Mavs are just 22-48 on the season, including 8-26 on the road.  The Pelicans just beat the Mavs 126-109 on the road as 3.5-point favorites on March 4th, and now they get them at home this time around. 

Dallas is 2-10 ATS vs. teams who allow 110 or more points per game this season.  The Pelicans are 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a losing record.  Roll with the Pelicans Tuesday. 

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +10.5 

I question the motivation of the Toronto Raptors the rest of the way.  They have a 5-game lead over the Boston Celtics for the No. 1 seed in the East.  And now the Celtics are playing without Kyrie Irving, Marcus Smart and Jaylen Brown.  They Celtics are basically locked in to the No. 2 seed. 

The Magic have played tough in their last two games, upsetting Milwaukee 126-117 as 10-point home underdogs, and giving Boston a battle at home as 7-point underdogs.  They will certainly show up for the Toronto Raptors tonight, and they’ll be rested.   

The Magic have had the last three days off and come in fresh.  The spot is a bad one for Toronto, which has a road game on deck tomorrow against Cleveland and will likely be looking ahead to that matchup.  The Raptors won’t give the Magic their full attention, and that will allow the Magic to hang tough for four quarters. 

Orlando is 22-10 ATS as an underdog of 10 or more points over the last three seasons.  Plays on home teams (Orlando) - revenging a home loss vs. opponent of 10 points or more, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 36-13 (73.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Magic Tuesday. 

20* Pistons/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento +3.5 

The Sacramento Kings have been flying under the radar for weeks.  They have gone 5-5 SU but 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They have beaten the Warriors and Heat outright as underdogs, while also giving teams like Utah and Oklahoma City a run for their money on the road during this stretch. 

The Detroit Pistons have basically packed it in.  They are now 6.5 games out of 8th place in the East and won’t be making the playoffs.  They simply cannot be favored on the road tonight with the way they are playing right now.  The Pistons are 3-13 SU in their last 16 games and 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games. 

The Kings are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a loss.  Sacramento is 5-0 ATS in its last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Detroit is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games.  The Pistons are 0-3-2 ATS in the last five meetings.  These four trends combine for a 22-1 system backing the home team tonight.  Bet the Kings Monday. 

15* Warriors/Spurs ESPN Monday No-Brainer on San Antonio -7 

The San Antonio Spurs have faced some adversity here of late and have responded well.  Just a few days ago they were in 9th place in the West and in jeopardy of missing the playoffs for the first time since 1996-97.  They have gotten healthy and played some of their best basketball this past week. 

Indeed, the Spurs are 3-00 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games.  They beat the Magic by 36 at home, the Pelicans by 5 at home and the Timberwolves by 16 at home.  This run has coincided with the healthy returns of both LaMarcus Aldridge and Rudy Gay to the lineup, among others. 

The Warriors are in terrible shape right now.  They are missing their top three scorers in Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Kevin Durant.  They are also without key role player Omri Casspi.  It’s no wonder the Warriors are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall. 

The Spurs are 11-3 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points this season.  The Warriors are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a win.  Golden State is 1-7 ATS in its last eight road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Take the Spurs Monday. 

15* NIT Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Stanford +8 

The Stanford Cardinal have been one of the most underrated teams in the Pac-12 all season.  They have gone 14-6 ATS in their 20 games in 2018, which has been the bulk of their Pac-12 season and into the NIT with their 86-83 win over BYU last week.  Now they are catching 8 points against Oklahoma State, which is too much. 

The Cowboys felt like they should have made the NCAA Tournament with the way they played down the stretch.  But they didn’t get in, and I have to question their motivation playing in this ‘consolation’ tournament.  They did beat Florida Gulf Coast 80-68 as 11-point favorites in their opener, but now they take a big step up in class tonight. 

The Cowboys are just 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. Pac-12 opponents.  The Cardinal are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a win.  Stanford is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a winning record.  The Cardinal are 11-4 ATS when playing just their 2nd game in a week this season.  Stanford is 32-15 ATS in its last 47 road games off a win by 6 points or less.  Roll with Stanford Monday. 

20* Blazers/Clippers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -2 

Note: I’m writing this analysis on Saturday night.  I’m taking the Los Angeles Clippers largely because of the situation.  The Blazers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days here, while the Clippers had Saturday off and will be rested. 

I think the Blazers are overvalued right now due to their NBA-high 11-game winning streak, which would extend to 12 if they are to beat the Pistons as expected at home as 8.5-point favorites Saturday night.  They are starting to get a lot of love from the betting public and thus the oddsmakers, and this is a great spot to fade them. 

Meanwhile, the Clippers have been flying way under the radar.  They have gone 14-7 in their last 21 games overall and are on the verge of making the playoffs at 37-31 on the season.  They are only 1.5 games back of 8th place in the West.  They need this victory more, and they’ll be hungry off back-to-back tough losses at Houston and Oklahoma City in which they had a chance to win both games in the closing minutes. 

The Clippers have won four of their last five meetings with the Blazers.  The Blazers have had the luxury of playing eight of their last nine games at home as this will be just their 2nd road game since February 24th. They barely won 108-103 over the Lakers in their lone road game during this stretch.  They won’t be so fortunate against these pesky Clippers tonight.  Bet the Clippers Sunday.

20* Marshall/West Virginia CBB Late-Night BAILOUT on Marshall +12.5 

Marshall showed the world what they were capable of when they won 81-75 over Wichita State in the opening round as 13.5-point underdogs.  It was just the fruits of head coach Dan D’Antoni’s labor.  This is one of the most dangerous teams in the tournament because of how well they shoot the ball in D’Antoni’s system. 

The Thundering Herd are a tough team to prepare for because they spread you out and shoot 28 3-pointers pe game.  The result has been a high-octane offense that averages 84.2 points per game.  The Thundering Herd’s top six scorers this season all shot 32.5% or better from 3-point range, led by Jon Elmore (22.8 ppg, 6.9 apg, 6.0 rpg), C.J. Burks (20.5 ppg) and Ajdin Penava (15.5 ppg, 8.5 rpg, 3.9 bpg). 

I think you throw in the rivalry element here and Marshall won’t just be satisfied with beating Wichita State.  Now they want to upset their ‘big brother’ in West Virginia, which has decided to end the yearly rivalry unless Marshall agrees to play in Morgantown every year.  The Thundering Herd would love nothing more than to exact their revenge here and end the Mountaineers’ season. 

Marshall is a perfect 10-0 ATS when playing with one or less days’ rest this season.  I think the lack of time for opponents to prepare for them has worked in their favor all season, and it will certainly be an advantage for them here against West Virginia.  The Thundering Herd got to play the early game in this San Diego regional on Friday and got to watch West Virginia play afterward, which is also an advantage.  Bet Marshall Sunday. 

15* FSU/Xavier CBB Sunday No-Brainer on Xavier -5.5 

The Xavier Musketeers aren’t getting the same respect that some of these other top seeds are getting.  That is evident here as they are only 5.5-point favorites over Florida State in the Round of 32.  I’ll certainly trust backing the veteran Musketeers over this young Florida State squad every time. 

Xavier is an elite offensive team that just put up 102 points on Texas Southern in their opener.  They are scoring 84.8 points per game this season on 49.3% shooting as a team.  That’s bad news for a Florida State team that has allowed 73 or more points in 18 of its last 20 games overall. 

Leonard Hamilton has been known as a defensive coach in his time at Florida State, but he clearly hasn’t gotten his players to respond on that end this season.  They give up 73.8 points per game on the year.  And they could be without one of their best players in Terrance Mann (12.8 ppg, 5.6 rpg), who suffered a groin injury against Missouri and is very questionable to play Sunday. 

These teams met last year in the NCAA Tournament with Xavier winning 91-66, and I believe we will see a similar result here.  The Musketeers are 24-6-2 ATS in their last 32 NCAA Tournament games.  The Seminoles are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win.  Roll with Xavier Sunday. 

15* Syracuse/Michigan State Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Michigan State -8 

Give Syracuse credit for pulling off two straight upsets over Arizona State and TCU to get here after most doubted they should even be in the NCAA Tournament.  But now playing their 3rd game in 5 days is too tall of a task to ask of them to even be competitive against a team the caliber of Michigan State. 

The Spartans have a massive home-court edge here with this game being played in Detroit, Michigan.  And I also believe this line is lower than it should be because the final score against Bucknell (82-78) was much closer than the game was.  The Spartans actually led by 16 with only a few minutes left before Bucknell got hot from the 3-point line. 

This is a Michigan State team that has only been beaten four times all season.  They have gone 30-4 with their four losses coming to Duke, Ohio State and Michigan (twice).  Syracuse isn’t in the same class as those three teams, and that will show up on the scoreboard today. 

Syracuse is 1-8 ATS in road games after two straight games committing 11 or fewer turnovers over the last three seasons.  Michigan State is 19-14 ATS when playing just its 2nd game in 8 days over the last three years.  The Orange are 2-11 ATS in road games vs. teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game over the last two seasons.  The Spartans are 14-2 ATS vs. poor passing teams who average 12 or fewer assists per game over the last three years.  Take Michigan State Sunday. 

15* Timberwolves/Spurs NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on San Antonio -4 

The San Antonio Spurs find themselves barely clinging on to the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference.  They are 39-30 and just one game ahead of the Nuggets.  They are in jeopardy of missing the playoffs for the first time since the 1996-97 season.  It’s safe to say the Spurs will be highly motivated for a victory tonight at home against the Timberwolves. 

"Yeah, it's a live or die for us right now,” LaMarcus Aldridge told reporters. "So, you know, you've got to bring it every game. And these teams that we're going to play, they're fighting for their position, and their lives too. So tonight was tough, but guys competed and just made plays."

The Spurs went through a rough patch recently due to all their injuries, but they have gotten healthy and it’s no surprise they have gone 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in their last two games since.  They beat the Magic by 36 as 10.5-point home favorites and the Pelicans by 5 as 4.5-point home favorites. 

San Antonio is 25-8 at home this season, while Minnesota is just 14-21 on the road.  This is a very short price to be laying with the Spurs tonight.  That’s especially the case when you consider the Spurs are 24-1 SU in their last 25 home meetings with the Timberwolves. 

Minnesota is 1-9 ATS in road games vs. teams who force 14 or fewer turnovers this season.  The Timberwolves are 0-5 ATS in their last five games when playing on three or more days’ rest.  Minnesota is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 road games.  The favorite is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Take the Spurs Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas -4.5 

The Kansas Jayhawks played their best basketball of the season down the stretch.  It looked like their Big 12 title winning streak was in jeopardy late in the season, but they sucked it up and have gone 9-1 SU & 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games.  The Jayhawks cruised through the Big 12 Tournament with three straight double-digit victories in arguably the toughest conference in the country.   

They even did it without star center Udoka Azubuike (13.7 ppg, 7.1 rpg).  Their guards in Graham, Mykhailiuk, Newman and Vick really stepped up in his absence.  After missing their 76-60 win over Pennsylvania Thursday, Azubuike is expected back for this game against Seton Hall, which is going to make them a very dangerous team moving forward. 

Kansas clearly is getting overlooked among the No. 1 seeds.  That was evident as they were only 13.5-point favorites over Penn, and now they only 4.5-point favorites over Seton Hall.  This despite that fact that they have a huge home-court advantage with this game being played in Wichita, KS.  I think the price is too cheap to pass up Saturday. 

I really like this Seton Hall team, but I think they are in over their heads here.  They didn’t fare so well when they took a step up in competition this season.  They went 0-4 against Villanova and Xavier this year, losing by an average of 9.5 points per game in those matchups.  Kansas is as good or better than both of those teams. 

Seton Hall played after Kansas on Thursday, which is an advantage for the Jayhawks getting to see the Pirates play afterward.  And the Pirates were in a shootout with their 94-83 win over NC State, which will have taken more out of them.  Seton Hall is 0-8 ATS after playing a game where both teams scored 80 points or more over the last two seasons.  Kansas is 8-0 ATS in road games after having won four of their last five games this season.  The Jayhawks are 8-0-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Kansas is 4-0 ATS in its last four non-conference games.  These four trends combine for a perfect 28-0 system backing the Jayhawks.  Take Kansas Saturday. 

20* Rockets/Pelicans NBA Saturday No-Brainer on New Orleans +7.5 

The New Orleans Pelicans are playing well enough to beat the Houston Rockets tonight.  The Pelicans are 11-3 in their last 14 games overall.  Two of their losses came without Anthony Davis, but he’s back healthy now and this team will get back to how they were playing during their 10-game winning streak. 

The Rockets see what’s going on with the injuries at Golden State and it would only be human nature for them to relax.  The Warriors are without Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Kevin Durant right now among others.  They just lost at home to the Kings last night, and they are no longer a threat to the No. 1 seed to the Rockets.  The Rockets have a 2.5-game lead over the Warriors and basically have it locked up now. 

The Pelicans have played the Rockets tough in their two meetings this season.  They upset the Rockets 115-113 as 5-point home underdogs, and also covered as 14-point road dogs in a 123-130 loss.  They should not be catching 7.5 points at home tonight to the Rockets. 

New Orleans is 22-8 ATS in its last 30 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. The Pelicans are 9-4 ATS int heir last 13 home meetings with the Rockets.  The underdog is 20-9-1 ATS in the last 30 meetings.  Bet the Pelicans Saturday. 

25* Round of 32 GAME OF THE YEAR on Loyola-Chicago +6 

The Loyola-Chicago Ramblers were one of the most underrated teams in the country this season.  They took over Wichita State’s role of dominating the Missouri Valley.  And indeed they did just that, going 29-5 SU and 18-3 within the conference.  They also went 20-9-1 ATS in their lined games to show just how undervalued they really were.  They beat Florida on the road as 17-point underdogs 65-59 as well to show what they are capable of. 

There’s a lot to like about the Ramblers.  For starters, they are an elite defensive team, giving up just 62.2 points per game on 41.5% shooting.  They are also a tremendous 3-point shooting team, making 39.7% of their attempts this season.  They have seven players who play regularly that shoot 34.8% or better from 3-point range.  And they have a stud big man in Cameron Krutwig (10.5 ppg, 6.3 rpg) who is one of the hardest workers in the country.  They also share the ball very well, averaging 16 assists per game, which has been the key to them shooting 50.6% as a team. 

I think Tennessee is being overvalued here off its 73-47 win over Wright State.  Now they are 6-point favorites here when this line should be closer to a pick ‘em.  It’s hard to trust this Tennessee team because they are such a streaky shooting bunch.  They shoot just 43.9% on the season as a team and rely way too much on contested jumpers. 

Loyola is 8-0 ATS after allowing 30 points or less in the first half of two straight games this season.  Tennessee is 1-7 ATS after two straight games making 78% of their free throws or better this season.  The Ramblers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Ramblers are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 games following a win.  After winning on a buzzer-beater against Miami, the Ramblers are oozing with confidence and will be a tough out for the Vols tonight.  Bet Loyola-Chicago Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Rhode Island +9.5 

The Rhode Island Rams are getting overlooked in the NCAA Tournament.  That’s because they didn’t win their conference tournament despite dominating the regular season.  They are now 26-7 on the season with four of their seven losses coming by 4 points or less.  They have great senior leadership with EC Matthews and are a very balanced team. 

Duke hasn’t exactly been world beaters this season at 27-7.  The Blue Devils lost to both UNC and VA Tech late in the season.  They have a lot of talent but haven’t exactly put it all together.  I think asking them to have to win by double-digits to cover this spread Saturday is asking too much. 

I also like the fact that Rhode Island got to play the first game of the Round of 64 Thursday with a 12:15 EST tip.  That means after they beat Oklahoma, they got to watch Duke play Iona afterwards.  I always think that’s a huge advantage for the team that played the first game, and it will be a factor here. 

The Rams are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games.  Rhode Island is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 road games vs. teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game after 15-plus games.  The Rams are 11-4 ATS vs. teams who make 45% of their shots or better this season.  Rhode Island is 13-4 ATS after committing 8 or fewer turnovers in their previous game over the last three years.  Mike Krzyzewski is 9-19 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 9.5 to 12 points as the coach of Duke.  Roll with Rhode Island Saturday. 

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Sacramento Kings +12 

The Golden State Warriors are an absolute mash unit right now.  They will be without both Klay Thompson and Stephen Curry.  They could be without Kevin Durant, who is questionable with a rib injury.  And Draymond Green is battling a shoulder injury that forced him to miss the last game. 

The Kings have been undervalued for weeks now.  They are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They have only lost twice by double-digits during this stretch.  Given the injury situation for the Warriors, the Kings have the potential to pull off the upset, just as they did back on November 27th in a 110-106 win at Golden State as similar 12.5-point dogs. 

Plays on underdogs of 10 or more points (Sacramento) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (102-plus PPG), after allowing 105 points or more are 41-12 (77.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  

The Kings are 5-0 ATS in their last five after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Sacramento is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 road games.  The Warriors are 14-30 ATS in their last 44 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Golden State is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games overall.  The Warriors are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win.  Bet the Kings Friday. 

15* Syracuse/TCU Late-Night BAILOUT on TCU -3.5 

The TCU Horned Frogs get the advantage of having plenty of time off to get ready for the NCAA Tournament.  They had won four straight before losing their final two games, a 75-79 loss at Texas Tech in the regular season finale and a 64-66 (OT) loss to Kansas State in their first game of the Big 12 Tournament. 

The Horned Frogs come in undervalued because of those two tough closes losses.  And they got to watch Syracuse play on Wednesday and scout them, which is also a big advantage.  Now they will be ready for that Syracuse zone, which is similar to the one that they play against Baylor every year. 

And TCU owned Baylor in the two meetings this season.  The Horned Frogs won 81-78 at Baylor as 1.5-point favorites and shot 49.1% from the field.  They also beat Baylor 82-72 at home as 5.5-point favorites and shot 54% from the floor.  Clearly, they have the players and the game plan to attack a zone defense after averaging 81.5 points per game in their two meetings with Baylor this season. 

Syracuse doesn’t even deserve to be in the NCAA Tournament.  They beat Arizona State on Wednesday despite shooting just 40.8% from the field.  That’s because the Sun Devils had an off shooting night at 40.4% themselves.  This a Syracuse team that is shooting just 41.8% on the season.  They don’t have the firepower offensively to match TCU, which averages 83.0 points per game and shoots 49.8% on the season, including 40% from 3-point range. 

The Orange are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 games following a win, including 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games following an ATS win.  The Horned Frogs are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games following a loss.  TCU is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 neutral site games.  Roll with TCU Friday. 

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Dallas Mavericks +10.5 

The Toronto Raptors are in a tough situation tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 7th game in 11 days.  It doesn’t get much tougher than that.  Plus, they had to come back from a big deficit in the 4th quarter to beat the Pacers last night.  They won’t have much left in the tank tonight. 

The Dallas Mavericks continue to play for pride.  They have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with their only loss coming to Houston.  They beat Denver by 11, Memphis by 34 and New York by 13.  This team is much better than it is getting credit for tonight as double-digits road dogs to the Raptors. 

Plays against home teams (Toronto) - off two or more consecutive road wins, when playing on Friday nights are 38-15 (71.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Mavs will be by far the fresher team here as they’ve had two days’ rest in between games having last played on Tuesday. 

Dallas is 18-7-2 ATS in its last 27 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Mavericks are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 road games overall.  Dallas upset Toronto 98-93 as 5.5-point home underdogs in their first meeting this season.  They will give the Raptors a run for their money here again tonight.  Take the Mavericks Friday. 

15* CBB Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Arkansas +1.5 

The Arkansas Razorbacks played really well down the stretch to make the NCAA Tournament.  They went 8-3 SU & 7-3-1 ATS over their final 11 games.  They beat fellow NCAA Tournament teams Florida, Auburn, Alabama and Texas A&M along the way. 

I think Arkansas’ style is perfect for the NCAA Tournament.  They pressure you defensively, forcing 14 turnovers per game while committing just 11 turnovers per game themselves, which is a recipe for success.  They can light it up on offense as they score 81.1 points per game and shoot 40% from 3-point range as a team. 

Butler is not a very good defensive team, and one of their biggest weaknesses is allowing the 3-pointer.  They allow opponents to make 37.4% of their 3-pointers against them this season.  They have small guards that Arkansas studs Jaylen Barford (18.0 ppg, 43.4% 3-pointers) and Daryl Macon (16.9 ppg, 42.9% 3-pointers) will be able to exploit. 

Butler is 0-8 ATS in road games after a game where they made 78% of their free throws or better this season.  The Bulldogs are 0-7 ATS in road games after a combined score of 155 points or more this season.  Butler is 2-12 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. The Razorbacks are 5-1 ATS int heir last six non-conference games.  Take Arkansas Friday. 

20* CBB Friday Line Mistake on Providence +3.5 

The Providence Friars are a veteran squad that returned all five starters from last year.  That experience certainly paid off down the stretch when the Friars found themselves on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  But they played their way in by going 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS over their final six games. 

The Friars beat fellow NCAA Tournament teams Creighton and Xavier in the Big East Tournament.  Then they took Villanova to overtime in the Championship Game.  They also beat Villanova earlier this season.  What they’ve done against those two No. 1 seeds in Villanova and Xavier shows they can play with anyone. 

I really don’t like this Texas A&M team very much.  They were terrible down the stretch, going 3-4 SU & 2-5 ATS in their final seven games with two of those three wins coming by a combined 3 points.  They lost starting point guard Duane Wilson in mid-February and haven’t been the same team since.  They have two stud big men, but their guards are some of the worst in the tournament.  And guards win out in the NCAA Tournament.  I strongly believe the wrong team is favored in this matchup. 

Texas A&M is 1-7 ATS in road games when playing against a good team (60% to 80%) this season.  Providence is 7-1 ATS vs. teams who are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game after 15-plus games this season.  The Friars are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record.  The Aggies are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Providence Friday.

25* Round of 64 GAME OF THE YEAR on Virginia Tech -2 

The turnaround at Virginia Tech under Buzz Williams has been remarkable.  The Hokies were one of the better teams in the ACC this season and finished 21-11.  They beat all the best teams in the ACC, knocking off Duke, Clemson and North Carolina at home, while handing Virginia one of its two losses this season on the road. 

Alabama shouldn’t even be in the NCAA Tournament.  The Crimson Tide went just 19-15 this season.  They went 2-6 over their final eight games, which includes home losses to Arkansas (by 3) and Florida (by 21).  They were blown out by Kentucky 63-86 in their final SEC Tournament game as well. 

While the Hokies play the definition of team basketball, the Crimson Tide rely too heavily on one player in freshman Colin Sexton.  He averages 19.0 points per game, but shoots just 44.4% from the field.  And the Crimson Tide could be without their second-best player in Dante Hall (10.9 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 72.1% FGs), who is battling a concussion and missed their last game against Kentucky. 

Alabama is 0-7 ATS after allowing 85 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Hokies are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss.  Virginia Tech is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games overall.  The Hokies are 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games.  Bet Virginia Tech Thursday. 

20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -3.5 

The San Antonio Spurs all of a sudden find themselves at 38-30 on the season and in 9th place in the Western Conference.  They are in jeopardy of missing the playoffs for the first time since 1996-97.  It’s safe to say they will be locked in and motivated the rest of the way. 

The Spurs have a chance to get a win against a team they are trailing in the New Orleans Pelicans tonight.  San Antonio has recently gotten healthy as injuries have been a big reason for their struggles of late.  They put it to Orlando 108-72 last time out, and now I expect them to do the same to the Pelicans. 

San Antonio will also be highly motivated for a win to avenge two straight losses to the Pelicans this season. But home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 21-7 ATS in the last 28 meetings.  The Spurs are 24-8 at home this season. 

San Antonio is 13-4 ATS after failing to cover five or six of their last seven against the spread over the last two seasons.  Plays on favorites (San Antonio) - after allowing 75 points or less against opponent after a combined score of 205 points are 29-7 (80.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Spurs Thursday. 

15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Indiana Pacers +4 

What more do the Indiana Pacers have to do to get some respect?  They have gone 10-3 SU & 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They are coming off back-to-back upset road wins at Boston (99-97) as 4.5-point underdogs and at Philadelphia (101-98) as 6-point dogs.   

Now they find themselves catching 4 points at home to the Toronto Raptors tonight.  The Pacers have been great at home all season, going 23-12 SU & 20-15 ATS.  And home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team is a perfect 9-0 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last nine meetings.   

The Pacers are 7-2 ATS in those nine meetings.  They beat the Raptors 107-104 as 2.5-point home underdogs in their first meeting this season.  They only lost 115-120 as 7-point road underdogs in their second meeting. 

Indiana is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents.  Toronto is 1-5 ATS in its last six road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Raptors are 0-4 ATS in their last four trips to Indiana.  Take the Pacers Thursday. 

15* CBB Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on Loyola-Chicago +2 

The Loyola-Chicago Ramblers were one of the most underrated teams in the country this season.  They took over Wichita State’s role of dominating the Missouri Valley.  And indeed they did just that, going 28-5 SU and 18-3 within the conference.  They also went 19-9-1 ATS in their lined games to show just how undervalued they really were.  They beat Florida on the road as 17-point underdogs 65-59 as well to show what they are capable of. 

There’s a lot to like about the Ramblers.  For starters, they are an elite defensive team, giving up just 62.2 points per game on 41.2% shooting.  They are also a tremendous 3-point shooting team, making 39.8% of their attempts this season.  They have six players who play regularly that shoot 37.3% or better from 3-point range.  And they have a stud big man in Cameron Krutwig (10.5 ppg, 6.3 rpg) who is one of the hardest workers in the country.  They also share the ball very well, averaging 16 assists per game. 

The Miami Hurricanes are extremely vulnerable here.  It was a bad look for them in a 17-point loss to North Carolina to get knocked out of the ACC Tournament.  They also lost to New Mexico State 54-63 in non-conference play as 9-point favorites.  Three of their final four wins this season came by a combined 5 points.  I think the Hurricanes are ripe for an upset here. 

Loyola-Chicago is 7-0 ATS in road games after a combined score of 115 points or less over the last three seasons.  Miami is 0-6 ATS vs. good defensive teams that allow 42% shooting or less after 15-plus games this season.  The Ramblers are 13-3 ATS int heir last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Hurricanes are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Miami is 1-5 ATS in its last six NCAA Tournament games.  Roll with Loyola-Chicago Thursday.